Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-3209-RW REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE RWANDESE REPUBLIC FOR A TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT February 18, 1982 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1.00 = Rwandese Franc (RF) 91.91 RF 100 = US$1.09 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS BUNEP - Bureau National d'Etudes de Projets (National Bureau for the Study of Projects) ISAR - Institut des Sciences Agronomiques du Rwanda (Agricultural Research Institute of Rwanda) MINIPLAN - Ministere du Plan (Ministry of Planning) MINITRAPE - Ministere des Travaux Publics et de l'Equipement (Ministry of Public Works and Equipment) OPROVIA - Office National pour le Developpement et la Commercialisa- tion des Produits Vivriers et de la Production Animale (National Agency for the Development and Marketing of Foodcrops and Animal Products) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System Metric British/US Equivalents 1 meter (m) 3.3 feet 1 hectare (h) 2.47 acre 1 are (100 m ) 0.02 acres 1 kilometer (km ) 2 0.62 miles 1 square kilometer (km ) 0.39 square mile (sq. mi.) 1 kilogram (kg) 2.2 pounds (lb) 1 liter (1) 0.26 US gallon (gal) 0.22 British gallon (imp gal) 1 metric ton (m ton) 2,204 pounds (lb) ) FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (i) RWANDA TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: Rwandese Republic Amount: SDRs 4.3 million (US$5.0 million equivalent) Terms: Standard Project (i) Objectives: To increase Rwanda's absorptive capacity, Description: improve interministerial coordination in project pre- paration and monitoring, and strengthen the Ministry of Planning (MINIPLAN). (ii) Components: The project would provide: (a) a Study Fund to finance prefeasibility, feasi- bility, and detailed engineering studies (for a total of about 545 staff-months, of which about 70 percent are expatriate); (b) training Seminars in Rwanda on project preparation and implementation (about 8 staff-months of instructors); (c) a project economist, in MINIPLAN, to provide technical assistance in managing the Study Fund (4 years); (d) a financial analyst to strengthen the National Bureau for the Study of Projects (4 years); (e) building and equipping of a Documentation Center, attached to MINIPLAN; (f) a documentalist to organize and start up the Documentation Center; and (g) vehicles. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. (ii) (iii) Benefits: The project would increase the number and improve the quality of projects submitted for outside financing; it would strengthen local project prepa- ration capabilities; and it would improve coordina- tion between technical ministries and MINIPLAN, thus strengthening the links between investment planning, programming and budgeting. (iv) Risks: The major risks are linked to the quality of MINIPLAN's performance in administering the Study Fund and to the amount of cooperation it would receive from technical ministries. Delays might also occur in the recruitment of suitably qualified experts. Close supervision by the Association should help alleviate these risks. Estimated costs: Foreign Exchange Local Foreign Total Component (US$ thousands equivalent) (percent) Long-term Advisers 140 550 690 80 Study fund 1,000 3,250 4,250 76 Training Seminars 80 80 160 50 Documentation Center 70 180 250 72 Vehicles 20 60 80 75 Contingencies 230 720 950 76 Total 1/ 1,540 4,840 6,380 76 Financing Plan Local Foreign Total Percent (US$ thousands equivalent) IDA 1,000 4,000 5,000 78 UNDP 160 840 1,000 16 Government 380 - 380 6 TOTAL 1,540 4,840 6,380 100 1/ Taxes included in project costs are negligible as all items would be exempt from import duties and local taxes. (iii) Estimated disbursements: IDA Fiscal Year (US$ thousands equivalent) 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Annual: 100 500 1,500 1,700 1,200 Cumulative: 100 600 2,100 3,800 5,000 Appraisal Report: There is no appraisal report on this project. Rate of Return: N.A, Map: IBRD 14634 I 0 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE RWANDESE REPUBLIC FOR A TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to the Rwandese Republic for the equivalent of SDRs 4,300,000 (US$5.0 million) on standard IDA terms, to finance a Technical Assistance Project. The project would be cofinanced with UNDP (about US$1.0 million) on a parallel basis. The Bank would serve as executing agency for the UNDP- financed components of the project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. A report, "Memorandum on the Economy of Rwanda" (No. 1108-RW), was distributed to the Executive Directors on July 27, 1976. Rwanda was visited by an economic mission in February 1979 and again in November/December 1981. The major findings of this recent mission are reflected below. Country data are provided in Annex I. 3. Rwanda became independent in 1962. Since the present Government came to power in 1973, the country has anioyed considerable political stabil- ity. This has been partly facilitated Dy the unity and relative homogeneity of the population and the absence of serious inequalities in the distribution of income and wealth. With an estimated per capita income of US$220 in 1980, Rwanda is among the poorest countries in the world. Its population density of around 210 persons per square kilometer is about ten times the average density for all of sub-Saharan Africa. The population remains predominantly rural, with only 4 percent estimated to be in urban areas in 1980. Although agriculture provides more than half of Rwanda's export receipts, predominantly from coffee, the expansion of export crops is constrained by the need to expand, at the same time, the production of foodcrops for domestic consumption and by the limited availability of arable land. Rwanda's manufacturing base is narrow, and its growth is hampered by the limited size of the market and the lack of raw materials, marketing facilities, entrepreneurial skills and skilled manpower. In addition, Rwanda's landlocked situation hampers merchan- dise trade because of high transportation costs and dependence on neighboring countries. 4. Deficiencies in the statistical data base make it exceedingly difficult to assess the macroeconomic performance of Rwanda. The national accounts data available are neither comprehensive nor reliable, at current or constant market prices. Available estimates of the national accounts indicate that during the period 1977-79 the rate of growth of GDP averaged 5 percent, but declined to 4 percent in 1980. The recent performance of the agricultural sector (which represented some 46 percent of GDP in 1980) has been disappointing. While agricultural output has sometimes been adversely affected by unfavorable weather conditions, there also appears to be a more fundamental problem -- an underlying trend of declining yields related to the rapid deterioration of soil fertility. Among the most important foodcrops, only the production of sweet potatoes and cassava has increased, while the production of other foodcrops has been stagnant. The overall decline in per capita agricultural production constitutes a major weakness in this predominantly agrarian economy with its rapidly expanding population. The other sectors of the economy, particularly manufacturing and transport, have exhibited some significant real growth over recent years. The importance of these sectors, however, remains quite limited in terms of their contribution to GDP (15 and 2 percent, respectively, in 1980). 5. The Government has traditionally followed prudent fiscal policies. In the period 1977-1979, current budgetary surpluses averaged 3 percent of GDP and overall Treasury surpluses averaged 1 percent of GDP. Fiscal policies have generally been conditioned by international developments with regard to Rwanda's main export product, coffee, which is its most important source of budget revenue. Rwanda-s vulnerability to external events is illustrated by developments in 1979-80: as the Uganda border was closed in early 1979, revenue from coffee exports declined, thus also the budgetary surplus, and supply disruptions fueled inflation. In order to face this situation, the Government adopted a stabilization program, beginning on July 1, 1979, supported by a one-year stand-by arrangement with the IMF. Although the performance criteria set by the IMF were met, purchases were never made under this arrangement: the route through Uganda was reopened and coffee prices rose. The Government has endeavored to reduce its dependence on revenue from coffee: efforts have been made to improve the collection of taxes on income and profits, and tax rates on real estate and vehicles have been increased. In 1980, increases in revenue from these sources and from taxes on beverages, plus transfers of profits from public enterprises, mainly the National Bank of Rwanda, helped stem what otherwise would have been the Government's first deficit in years, as the coffee market plummeted (there were significant declines in both volume exported and prices). 6. Monetary and credit developments over the past few years reflect the prudent and conservative policy of the Central Bank and the effects of generally favorable conditions for coffee exports. As a result of Central Government surpluses but also because of increased nonbank borrowing, the Treasury has steadily improved its net creditor position with the banking system. In 1980, this limited the expansion of domestic credit to 12 percent, in spite of a rapid expansion in credit to the private sector mainly due to the need to finance coffee stocks. As net foreign assets rose moderately, the increase in the money supply was only 8 percent. In addition to these develop- ments, improvements in supply conditions also contributed to bringing the inflation rate down from 16 percent in 1979 to about 7 percent in 1980. - 3 - 7. Rwanda's balance of payments performance in 1980 weakened con- siderably relative to 1979. This was due to a decline in the terms of trade and to a marked deterioration of the trade balance from a surplus of US$43.4 million equivalent in 1979, when coffee receipts had trebled, to a deficit of US$70.8 million equivalent in 1980, as both the volume and the price of coffee declined significantly. Imports, mainly of petroleum products and foodstuffs, increased markedly. The deficit in the current account, at US$54.3 million equivalent, was only slightly smaller than the trade balance, as reduced net service payments were offset by a decline in net transfers. However, net official long-term capital increased from US$17.6 million equivalent in 1979 to US$33.2 million equivalent in 1980. Moreover, there was a significant inflow of short-term capital, largely attributable to the liquidation of outstanding coffee credits. These developments compensated for the deteriora- tion in the current account so that the overall balance of payments registered a surplus of US$13.3 million equivalent in 1980, whereas the surplus in 1979 was US$69.7 million equivalent. Rwanda's gross official foreign reserves, at the end of 1980, still stood at the fairly comfortable level of about US$204 million, equivalent to seven months of estimated 1981 imports of goods and nonfactor services. 8. The outlook for the near future is of a continued deterioration in Rwanda's external position. Coffee prices are expected to remain depressed through 1984-1985 while the volume exported is not likely to exceed the average of the last three years. In addition, Rwanda does not have a viable alternative to coffee, as the volume of its other major exports (tea, cas- siterite and wolfram) cannot be increased significantly in the short term and their prices are also forecast to fall. Export receipts in 1981 are estimated to have declined for the second consecutive year, to US$125 million equivalent. As import payments declined (in view of the accumulated stocks of imported goods at end-1980), the trade deficit is estimated to have been slightly smaller than in 1980, at US$68.7 million equivalent. Net service payments increased to US$121.7 million equivalent and net transfers recovered from their decline in 1980; thus, the current account deficit is estimated at US$62.6 million equivalent. Although the net inflow of capital continued at a high level, this was not sufficient to prevent Rwanda from suffering its first reserve loss - US$11.6 million equivalent - in many years. 9. Rwanda's need for external assistance will thus increase. The country's external debt is low. At end 1980, the public and publicly guaranteed external debt amounted to US$170 million, or 14 percent of GDP, which suggests ample scope for further borrowing, although the poverty of the country and the instability of its export earnings require highly concessional terms. So far, virtually all funds have been received in the form of grants and loans at concessionary terms. Consequently, the estimated debt service ratio in 1980 was equivalent to only 3.2 percent of exports of goods and non-factor services. 10. Under the present Government there has been a marked reorientation in the focus of development towards agriculture and rural development. - 4 - Increased food production is recognized as the cardinal priority, and major emphasis is also placed on human resources development and on improving infrastructure in transport and communications. The Five-Year Plan 1977-81 identified four broad priority objectives: (i) satisfying the population's food needs; (ii) increasing employment and improving utilization of the country's human resources; (iii) increasing living standards by more widespread access to improved health care and basic social services; and (iv) improving Rwanda's external position through a better trade balance, improved transport links, and more effective and increased use of external financial and technical assistance. The Plan also made the first official acknowlegement of the need for effective population planning as an indispensable complement to the other priority objectives. 11. With regard to the first objective of satisfying food needs, overall growth in agriculture has barely reached 3 percent yearly, as compared to the Plan's target of 3.8 percent. While some improved cultivation practices are reported, the overall picture in a situation of rapidly growing population is one of stagnating or declining yields. The coordinated approach to foodcrop, export crop and livestock production envisioned by the Plan has not yet materialized. 12. Progress towards the second objective, increasing employment and improving utilization of human resources, has also been limited. The 5.8 percent per annum increase in wage employment projected by the Plan has not been realized, and the only significant increases have occurred in the public administration and construction sectors. 13. Regarding the third objective, improving living standards, overall progress has been slow. The food supply remains inadequate, population is increasing rapidly, and educational efforts to reduce illiteracy (77 percent) will take time to produce results. While there has been a gradual increase in the number of health/nutrition centers and hospital beds, health services in rural areas are still sparse, and rural water supply has tended even to deteriorate in some regions. Recent Government actions addressed to population planning will take time to produce tangible results, not only because the organization and implementation of family planning services require time and financial and human resources, but also because of religious (50 percent of the Rwandese is Roman Catholic) and sociological considerations. 14. Considering the fourth objective of the Plan, improving the country's external position, the Government's efforts to limit Rwanda's vulnerability to external factors have, thus far, been addressed mainly to (i) development of appropriate infrastructure and, in particular, transportation (to stimulate agricultural specialization and diversification by eliminating bottlenecks affecting distribution and to support programs aimed at improving Rwanda's external position by making commodities exported more cost competitive internationally and imports more affordable through lower transport cost) and (ii) improving coffee production and exports. A policy of diversifying agricultural exports has also been pursued. This, however, can only be done in a very limited way, given Rwanda's shortage of arable land and the country's urgent need to increase food production. Furthermore, as the scope for - 5 - diversification is limited to only a few primary commodities (tea, pyrethrum and quinine bark), Rwanda will remain vulnerable to the international price fluctuations of these commodities. 15. For the longer term, other options for diversification need to be identified and pursued. The mining sector appears to hold some promise for future investment in the light of the Government's plans to increase the domestic processing capacity for mineral raw materials. Potential for IDA or IFC investment in this sector deserves further investigation. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN RWANDA 1/ 16. Bank Group assistance started in 1970 and initially focused on the improvement of the road network and the strengthening of agricultural produc- tion. Rwanda has received fourteen IDA credits totalling US$130.5 million, of which four (totalling US$43.1 million) were for roads, six (US$64.3 million) for agriculture, two (US$9.2 million) for DFC projects, one (US$6.4 million) for education and one (US$7.5 million) for telecommunications. There have been no Bank loans. An IFC loan of US$535,000 for a tea factory was signed in 1976; a second IFC loan of US$226,000 and contingent equity commitment of up to US$60,000 to expand the tea factory were signed in September 1980. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits, IFC investments and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 17. The first three highway projects are completed and totally disbursed. A fourth credit for a hi'.'-Jy maintenance project (Credit 769-RW), which became effective in August 1978, is three-quarters completed and is pro- gressing satisfactorily. 18. The first agricultural development (Mutara) project was completed in July 1979 and funds have now been completely disbursed. 2/ A second credit of US$8.8 million, which supports the second phase of a long-term development for the Mutara region, was declared effective on May 30, 1980, but has experi- enced start-up problems due to difficulties in recruiting technical assistance. 1/ Part II of this report is substantially the same as that in Report No. P-2987-RW on the Lake Kivu Coffee Improvement and Foodcrop Project, considered by the Executive Directors on March 31, 1981. 2! A Project Completion Report (August 1980) concluded that even though the increases in agricultural production were less than originally expected, substantial achievements had been realized under the project in the areas of infrastructure development and in experience acquired by Rwandese staff in project management. In addition, the project had served as a positive instrument for IDA and the Government in developing a sectoral dialogue for the Mutara area. - 6 - The credit agreement for a cinchona project (US$1.8 million) and the credit agreement for the Bugesera/Gisaka/Migongo (BGM) mixed farming and rural development project (US$14.0 million) were signed in August 1976 and in March 1977, respectively. Construction, procurement and budgeting are proceeding satisfactorily under the BGM project, though the results of foodcrop and plant improvement components are below appraisal estimates due to a failure to come up with appropriate technical packages for the relatively dry project area. The Cinchona project is progressing satisfactorily. A project to support reforestation programs in Kigali, Butare and Gisenyi Prefectures (IDA Credit 1039-RW for US$21.0 million) was signed July 2, 1980; the project also includes a study of renewable energy sources for Rwanda. A US$15.0 million credit for a coffee improvement/foodcrops project in the Lake Kivu region was signed April 29, 1981. A credit for an education project (US$7.9 million) became effective in 1975; physical implementation has been slow and com- plicated by procurement problems. The first credit of US$4.0 million to the Development Finance Company (BRD) has now been fully committed. BRD's performance under the credit has been highly satisfactory. A second credit of US$5.2 million to BRD was signed on July 13, 1979, and became effective on January 4, 1980. A credit for a telecommunications project (US$7.5 million) which aims at reducing Rwanda's geographic isolation from other countries and at improving internal telecommunications facilities, was signed on August 13, 1980. 19. One of the major constraints on Rwanda's development is the shortage of technical/managerial capacity. This affects all sectors and inhibits proj- ect preparation and implementation. Intensive technical assistance is there- fore justified as a salient feature of the Bank Group's program for Rwanda and would be provided under the proposed project (para. 34). 20. For the future, the primary emphasis of Bank operations will remain on rural development, the main objective being to increase food production as well as export crops, while maintaining soil fertility. A major emphasis will also be placed on the development of human resources, focusing on population control and support to basic education and skills training to improve agricul- tural productivity, provide skilled manpower, and influence attitudes on the population issue. Further investment is also justified for infrastructure and, in particular, transportation to reduce the country's isolation and pro- vide incentives to more intensive agricultural activity and diversification through better marketing. Another area requiring our special attention includes renewable sources of energy to lessen the demand for fuel imports and mitigate their impact on the balance of payments. A study of renewable energy sources is being financed under IDA credit 1039-RW (para. 18). Preparation of a second Bugesera rural development project is underway and will include a population/nutrition component, the Association's first operational effort in the critical area of population education and control. In highways, the Government has asked the Bank Group to participate in the financing of the Butare-Ntendezi road. This project, expected to be presented to the Board in June, 1982, would open up the southern region of Rwanda towards Zaire and Burundi and support both the forestry (FY80) and the coffee improvement/ foodcrops (FY81) projects. A second education project, appraised during - 7 - June/July 1981, would address clearcut manpower needs and support the training of middle level technicians and managers; the project will also include selective support for basic education through pre-service and inservice training of teachers. It is expected that the Bank Group will continue to support industrial development through the Rwandese Development Bank (BRD). PART III - SECTOR BACKGROUND: THE NEED FOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE 9~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Planning Function 21. The main responsibility for designing and coordinating Rwanda-s development strategy rests with the Ministry of Planning (MINIPLAN). With a total staff of about 120, MINIPLAN is subdivided into three Directorates General: planning; statistics; and inspection and control. Briefly summar- ized, their respective functions are as follows: (i) the Directorate General for Planning is responsible for pre- paring the Development Plan and for translating it into investment programs. It comprises two directorates: the Directorate of Studies, which conducts the macroeconomic and sector work necessary to elaborate the Plan, and the Programs Directorate, which is responsible for identifying specific projects fitting within planned priorities, for programming their implementation over time, and for preparing the invest- ment budget. The Director General is responsible for integrat- ing the contributions of the two directorates, but, so far, only macroeconomic and sector work has been strengthened, with UNDP assistance (paras. 22-23). The Programs Directorate s work is too weak to contribute to the necessary iterations between macroeconomic and project work and to be meaningfully integrated into the planning process. Consequently, investment lags behind targeted goals, and planning, programming and budgeting activities are poorly coordinated; (ii) the Directorate General for Statistics is responsible for collection and analysis of data and for documentation services. Statistical work, however, is scattered among various governmental agencies (ministries of Economy and Trade, Finance, customs agency, National Bank). This leads to waste of scarce talent and reduces the reliability of available data. Documentation is not collected systematically and existing information is hard to retrieve. The lack of reliable statistics and of documentation leads to duplication in project preparation work, as basic economic and social facts must be reestablished for most new projects; and - 8 - (iii) the Directorate General for Inspection and Control of the Plan is in charge of monitoring project implementation against the Plan's objectives and the execution of the investment budget. To date, this Directorate has not, however, estab- lished a central monitoring system and lacks a comprehen- sive view of development efforts in the country. 22. Many of MINIPLAN's weaknesses result from a lack of skilled manpower and from the high turnover rate of competent personnel at higher levels. Aware of the situation, Government has taken steps to strengthen the planning function with UNDP's assistance. At present, UNDP finances five advisers assigned to MINIPLANMs Directorate of Studies (UNDP Project RWA/78/007: "Technical Assistance to Planning" executed by the UN Department of Technical Cooperation for Development). They are mainly responsible for macroeconomic work, for sector planning (agriculture, human resources, infrastructure, industry), and for maintaining contact with the study units of the Ministries of Economy, Agriculture, and Public Works. A sixth expert, financed by French technical cooperation, works on macroeconomic planning and provides statistical assistance. He collaborates closely with the UNDP advisers, but is not formally integrated into the team. 23. The UNDP team has contributed to a better identification of prior- ities in the Second Five-Year Plan (1977-1981) and to an improvement of MINIPLANs internal workings. The presence of these advisers, however, has also led to demands for them to provide assistance in project preparation work, for which they do not always have the appropriate skills or the necessary time. Such demands conflict with the main functions of the Directorate of Studies and detract the experts from assisting the Directorate in exercising proper quality control over sector work submitted by line ministries. 24. The centralization of new project ideas, the coordination of pre- investment studies, and the preparation of the investment budget fall under the responsibility of the Programs Directorate. This weak unit has received no assistance to date and Government now wishes to strengthen it. This would require technical and financial assistance to help develop capabilities for preinvestment studies and coordination of the preparation of coherent programs of new projects. Strengthening the Programs Directorate would contribute to establish a balance within the Directorate General of Planning, which would be in a better position to integrate the various components of its work. The Project Preparation Function 25. The lack of well prepared projects impedes the country's absorptive capacity and explains partly why investment goals targeted in the Second Five- Year Plan have been only partially met (paras. 11-14). The current situation is reflected in the preparatory work done for the UNCTAD conference on the least developed countries which produced a list of 118 projects to be financed at an estimated total cost of US$2.5 billion over the next ten years. For 31 percent of these projects (representing 12.2 percent of the total estimated cost) no study had been done; 41 percent of the projects (60 percent of total estimated cost) had been identified through studies of varying depth; only 28 - 9 - percent were backed by feasibility studies, technical notes, marketing studies, etc. All necessary studies had been completed for only one project (estimated cost: US$21.8 million). 26. As a result of Rwanda's difficulties in submitting well structured projects, many donors and suppliers prepare their own projects, reducing fur- ther local capabilities and the Government's decisional autonomy. Removing this source of dependency is one of the Second Plan's priorities and Govern- ment has taken a series of steps to strengthen local project preparation capa- bilities by creating the National Bureau for the Study of Projects (BUNEP). 27. Created by Presidential decree on September 5, 1978, BUNEP is a state enterprise, with administrative and financial autonomy, placed under the control and supervision of MINIPLAN. BUNEP is responsible for: (i) preparing the documentation (technical, economic, financial) necessary for submitting projects for outside financing; (ii) preparing tender documents; (iii) training national experts in the field of project preparation; and (iv) carrying out ad hoc tasks (study of social and economic reforms, monitoring of projects) at Government's request. 28. In Ncvember 198;, B!TNWF enplbyed a total of 40 people: L! were conducting studies, and 26 were performing support functions. The staff is distributed into four sections with different responsibilities (agriculture; economic studies; infrastructure; social studies). BUNEP has completed studies which include a prefeasibility study for an industrial brick making factory, a small springs survey, an identification study for an oil factory, an economic analysis of the Bugeresa/Gisaka/Migongo II project which has been proposed for Bank financing, an economic study of warehouses in Mombasa, a market survey for an office building in Kigali, and a preliminary study for the Kigali hospital. Available studies show the efforts made to design and implement a uniform evaluation methodology, but BUNEP's work suffers from the absence of any reliable statistics and from the relative lack of professional experience among its national staff. Moreover, the studies cover a wide range of topics, and BUNEP runs the risk of spreading its resources too thinly. It would seem advisable for BUNEP to concentrate on the development of a narrower field of expertise in areas identified as national priorities in the Plan. 29. Government attaches great importance to strengthening BUNEP and to complementing the assistance already provided by UNDP to the Bureau. UNDP currently provides three advisers (the team leader, an infrastructure expert, and an agricultural development expert) under its Project RWA/77/009: "Assis- tance to BUNEP," executed by the UN Department of Technical Cooperation for - 10 - Development. UNDP's assistance will be extended to 1986, but it will remain concentrated on technical aspects of project preparation work. It would have to be complemented by assistance covering the financial and economic aspects of project preparation. 30. Outside of BUNEP, local project preparation work is conducted by study units attached to three ministries (Agriculture, Economy, and Public Works). These study units receive technical assistance, but they remain understaffed and weak. In November 1981, the following technical assistance was available: (i) Ministry of Agriculture: two Belgian and one French agricultural economists in the study unit: one Belgian animal husbandry specialist in the Agricultural Research Institute of Rwanda (ISAR); one Belgian Rural Engineer and one Belgian adviser for the National Agency for the Development and Marketing of Foodcrop and Animal Products (OPROVIA); and one Swiss forester in ISAR; (ii) Industry Directorate of the Ministry of Economy: two UNIDO experts; (iii) Economic Policy Directorate of the Ministry of Economy: two German economists in charge of industrial policy and defining procedures for project preparation; (iv) Ministry of Public Works: five German civil engineers responsible for studies; twelve road maintenance technicians, including three training instructors financed by IDA; IDA's next highway project is likely to include financing of a transportation planner and a civil engineer. The Need for Further Assistance 31. Though current technical assistance addresses some of Rwanda's major weaknesses in planning and project preparation, MINIPLAN-s coordinating and programming functions still need strengthening. UNDP's assistance covers macroeconomic and sector planning at one end of the project cycle (MINIPLAN's Directorate of Studies), and individual project preparation at the other (BUNEP). The intermediate phase of translating inter- and intra-sectoral priorities into well-studied projects (Programs Directorate) currently receives no assistance. The proposed project is designed to strengthen this inter- mediate phase and to complement the assistance already provided by UNDP. Besides project preparation, Rwanda's absorptive capacity could also be increased by improving the performance of public enterprises in the imple- mentation of projects for which financing has been secured. A review of the parastatal sector is included under the proposed Study Fund. - 11 - PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 32. During his visit to the Bank on September 25, 1980, the President of the Rwandese Republic, Major-General Habyarimana, expressed the concern of his Government about the scarcity of project preparation and implementation resources in his country. He requested Bank Group support to help improve t project preparation and implementation. Following his visit, the Bank con- tacted bilateral and multilateral sources and obtained UNDP's agreement to contribute US$1.0 million towards the financing of the proposed project, which is in response to the President's request. The project was identified and prepared in February 1981 and appraised in May 1981. Negotiations were held in Washington from January 11 to 15, 1982. The Rwandese Delegation was led by H.E. Ambroise Mulindangabo, Minister of Planning. A Credit and Project Summary is provided at the beginning of this report. Supplementary data on the project are contained in Annex III. Project Objectives 33. The project would increase the number and improve the quality of projects submitted for outside financing; it would strengthen local project preparation capabilities; and it would establish better coordination between technical ministries and MINIPLAN, thus improving linkages between invest- ment planning, programming and budgeting. Project Description 34. The proposed project would include the following major elements: (i) a Study Fund managed by MINIPLAN, which would finance prefeasibility, feasibility, and detailed engineering studies (about 545 staff-months, of which about 70 percent for expatriate services); (ii) training seminars in Rwanda on project preparation and implementation (8 staff-months for instructors); (iii) a project economist assigned to MINIPLAN, financed by UNDP, with the Bank serving as executing agency; the contract with this adviser would be for an initial period of two years, renewable for another two on the basis of the adviser's performance; (iv) a financial analyst assigned to BUNEP, financed by UNDP, with the Bank serving as executing agency; the contract with this adviser would be for an initial period of two years, renewable for another two on the basis of the adviser's performance; - 12 - (v) construction and equipment of a Documentation Center, placed under the authority of MINIPLAN; (vi) a documentalist assigned to the Documentation Center for two years, financed by UNDP, with the Bank serving as executing agency; and (vi) two vehicles for MINIPLAN and one vehicle for BUNEP. Detailed Features 35. Study Fund. The Study Fund would finance prefeasibility, feasibility, and detailed engineering studies. The sectoral composition and distribution of these studies would reflect the priorities of the Five-Year Plan. Special emphasis would be put on productive sectors, especially agriculture. An indicative sectoral distribution of the Study Fund proceeds would be as follows: 35 percent for agriculture and rural development, 25 percent for industry and crafts, 15 percent for human resources development, 15 percent for transport and communications, and 10 percent for other sectors. The Fund would encourage preparation of small and medium-size projects. Specifically, unless the Association otherwise agrees, a ceiling of about US$250,000 (1981 prices) would serve as a guideline for approving the cost of individual studies. (Schedule 4, para. (f) of the Development Credit Agreement.) This would encourage coverage of as broad a range of projects as possible within each sector. In addition, because of Government-s concern with improving the performance of public sector enterprises, the Fund would finance a review and analysis of the parastatal sector, with a view to designing a program of technical assistance to this sector. 36. The Study Fund would be a focal point for coordinating the prepara- tion of new projects and would be used to finance local and foreign consultants. The Fund would be administered by the Programs Directorate, with the assistance of the project economist. Procedures for administering the Study Fund (see Schedule 4 of the Development Credit Agreement) would be as follows: (i) twice yearly, at MINIPLAN's request, all ministries would submit study proposals; (ii) the Programs Directorate would review these proposals, in consultation with the Directorate of Studies, and submit them to an advisory commission, chaired by the Minister of Planning and composed of MINIPLAN's correspondents in each ministry; these correspondents would be designated by the Minister of Planning in agreement with each concerned depart- ment; (iii) the advisory commission would be convened as often as necessary, but at least twice a year, to consider the proposals submitted by the Programs Directorate; BUNEP would attend the meetings; - 13 - (iv) after receiving the commission's advice, the Minister of Planning would select the proposals to be included in a yearly program of studies; selection would be in accordance with criteria in para. 35; (v) the Programs Directorate would be responsible for implement- ing the agreed program of studies and would, inter alia, prepare terms of reference for the studies, approve the agencies selected to carry out the studies, approve the contracts with such agencies for signature by the concerned ministry, and, finally, report to the advisory commission on the implementation of the agreed studies; (vi) necessary services (preparation of detailed terms of reference; and conduct of studies) would be provided by BUNEP (para. 37), study units of technical ministries, and foreign consultants; and (vii) in all activities related to the administration of the Study Fund, the Programs Directorate would act as technical secretariat to the advisory commission; all activities financed by the Fund would require the Association's prior approval (para. 41). 37. Role of BUNEP. In order to strengthen local capabilities to prepare and monitor projects, a special role would be reserved for BUNEP in carrying out studies financed by the Study Fund. Guidelines to be issued by MINIPLAN for BUNEP's participation would stipulate (see Schedule 6, Development Credit Agreement) that: (i) BUNEP would conduct studies financed by the Study Fund without, however, having the exclusive right to conduct such studies; 1/ (ii) after elaboration of the program of studies as described in para. 36, BUNEP would communicate to the advisory commission a list of studies that BUNEP deems to be within its capabilities, given its technical competence and work load; (iii) for such studies BUNEP would submit technical and financial proposals to MINIPLAN and the technical ministry concerned; (iv) if BUNEP's proposal is accepted by the advisory commission and approved by the Association, BUNEP would be given responsibility to conduct the study; and (v) if not, the choice of consultants would follow the same procedures as for all other studies (para 36-v). 1/ BUNEP, it has been estimated, would carry out about 30 percent of all studies. - 14 - 38. Training Seminars in Rwanda. The seminars would be addressed to officials responsible for project work in MINIPLAN and in technical minis- tries. Currently, these officials lack the necessary background for project identification, preparation, and monitoring. Designed to remedy this situa- tion, the seminars would provide basic skills for project work. They would facilitate the application of uniform criteria for project preparation and implementation, thus contributing to better interministerial coordination. Sequentially organized over a twelve-month period, each seminar cycle would cover: (a) sector planning and project identification; (b) project outline and preparation of specific items; (c) costing and evaluation of projects; and (d) project implementation. Each topic would be covered in two-week sessions. The cycle would be given twice during the Project period. The seminars would be given by two instructors to about 20 participants. To improve attendance, efforts would be made to organize the seminars outside Kigali, thus relieving officials of their daily work load. Travel and subsistence costs of the participants would be financed by the proposed project, up to US$80,000 equivalent. 39. Documentation Center. The project would also finance the construc- tion 2nd equipping of a Documentation Center with a usable area of about 360 m . Small documentation units exist in the Industrial Directorate of the Ministry of Economy and also in MINIPLAN. Neither unit is well organized, however, and available documents are hard to retrieve. No cataloging systems exist, which hinders the Government's capability to build on previous experience, and thus leads to duplication in the work of national staff and outside consultants. The need for a Documentation Center is felt particularly in the Ministries of Economy and Planning. Construction and equipping of new facilities would strengthen the documentation unit in MINIPLAN and enable it to fulfill its intended role at the national level. 40. The Documentation Center would serve the needs of all government agencies and would collect, on an on-going basis, relevant social and economic documentation on Rwanda's development. In addition to such standard documen- tation, the center would maintain a complete file of feasibility and sector studies. The project would provide for the services of a documentalist to help organize and put into operation the Documentation Center, after completion of the new facilities. Project Implementation 41. The Programs Directorate of MINIPLAN would be responsible for administering the Study Fund. Assurances were received during negotiations that procedures for administering the Fund (para. 36) would be communicated to all ministries. The Development Credit Agreement specifies MINIPLAN's role (Schedule 4). Once ratified, it would provide the Minister of Planning with the legal authority to organize the advisory commission. The project economist financed by UNDP would provide technical assistance for all activities related to the Study Fund (paras. 35-36) and would work in close collaboration with the Programs Director and the Director General of Planning. A national counter- part would be assigned to the financial analyst. Terms of reference for the studies and experts to be financed by the Study Fund would be established in - 15 - consultation with IDA and subject to the Association's prior approval (Sections 3.02, 3.03 and 3.04 of the Development Credit Agreement). Because information on qualified consultant firms or experts is not readily available in Rwanda, the Association would consider assisting the Government, at its request, in identifying suitable experts and firms. Final selection would be made by the Government. 42. The Documentation Center would be under the responsibility of MINIPLAN-s Directorate General for Statistics. A national counterpart would be assigned to the UNDP-financed documentalist (para. 34-vi), and appropriate staff would be appointed to operate the center (Section 3.05 of the Development Credit Agreement). The construction of the Documentation Center would be carried out under the supervision of the Directorate of Public Buildings (Direction des Batiments Civils) of the Ministry of Public Works (MINITRAPE). Architectural drawings have been prepared by MINITRAPE. 43. The project would finance two cars and a four-wheel drive vehicle. The cars would be assigned to MINIPLAN's Programs Directorate and BUNEP. The four-wheel drive vehicle would be assigned to the Programs Directorate of MINIPLAN and be available to facilitate the conduct of studies financed by the Study Fund (such as site visits). Project Cost 44. Total cost of the project has been estimated at US$6.38 million, of which about US$4.8 million or 76 percent is foreign exchange. The costs are summarized in the cost table provided in the Credit and Project Summary. 45. The Study Fund would finance expatriate and local experts and firms. Costs have been estimated as follows: (i) Base costs for expatriate experts have been estimated at US$10,000 per staff-month (including compensation, inter- national travel, and subsistence). The Study Fund would finance about 395 expatriate staff-months. An indicative distribution would be as follows: 65 staff-months the first year, 100 the second, 110 the third, and 120 the fourth. Price contingencies have been added (8.5 percent for 1982 and 7.5 percent for 1983-5). (ii) Base costs for local experts have been estimated at US$2,000 per staff-month. The Study Fund would finance about 150 local staff-months. An indicative distribution would be as follows: 20 staff-months the first year, 30 the second, 40 the third, and 60 the fourth. Price contingencies of 15 percent have been added. 46. Detailed costs of the Documentation Center have been estimated by MINITRAPE. Price contingences of 8.5 percent and physical contingencies of 15 percent have been added. - 16 - Financing Plan 47. The financing plan proposed for the project is summarized in the Credit and Project Summary. IDA would finance about US$4.0 million equivalent of foreign costs and, given the poor, medium-term balance-of-payments prospects (para. 8), US$1.0 million equivalent of local costs for a total of US$5.0 million equivalent; UNDP would finance about US$800,000 equivalent of foreign costs and about US$200,000 equivalent of local costs for a total of $1.0 million equivalent. The Government would provide the remaining US$380,000 equivalent in local currency. A detailed financing plan, by component, is provided below: UNDP IDA Government Total (US$ thousands equivalent) Long-term Advisers 690 - - 690 Study fund 200 3,800 250 4,250 Training Seminars - 160 - 160 Documentation Center - 180 70 250 Vehicles - 65 15 80 Contingencies 110 795 45 950 Total 1,000 5,000 380 6,380 (16x) (78%) (6%) (100%) Procurement 48. The employment of consultants would be in accordance with the Association's Guidelines (August 1981) on the use of consultants (Section 3.02 (c) of the Development Credit Agreement). Vehicles and equipment would be purchased after quotations had been obtained from at least two suppliers represented in Rwanda who offer adequate guarantees of service and spare parts. Contracts for civil works for the Documentation Center would be awarded in accordance with local competitive bidding procedures, which are satisfactory. These procedures allow participation of foreign firms, though only locally established firms are expected to compete. Disbursements 49. Funds from the IDA credit would be disbursed over four years, as follows: (i) 100 percent of foreign and 75 percent of local expenditures for the Study Fund (IDA funds would be disbursed before UNDP's); (ii) 100 percent of expenditures for seminars; (iii) (a) 100 percent of foreign and 70 percent of local expenditures for construction of the Documentation Center; (b) 100 percent of foreign and 80 percent of local expenditures for equipment of the Documentation Center; and - 17 - (iv) 100 percent of foreign and 80 percent of local expenditures for vehicles. Work Plans and Project Reviews 50. The UNDP-financed long-term advisers would prepare work plans every six months, to be reviewed with the Minister of Planning, the Programs Director (MINIPLAN) and the Director of BUNEP during IDA supervision missions. Project Implementation Schedule 51. The recruitment process for the long-term advisers financed by UNDP began in the Fall of 1981 under the UNDP preparatory assistance procedure. The first list of studies to be financed by the Fund would be ready in January 1983. Facilities for the Documentation Center would be completed by September 1983. The documentalist would arrive in October 1983. Training seminars on project preparation and monitoring (para. 38) would start in January 1983. The project is expected to be completed by June 30, 1986. Benefits and Risks 52. Benefits would include a portfolio of well prepared projects ready for submission to financing sources. The project would improve local capa- bilities for the preparation of investment projects. Specifically, on-the-job training of counterparts and seminars (para. 38) would provide Rwandese officials with appropriate skills in project preparation and monitoring. In the long-run, the mechanisms set up to prepare new projects would help strengthen the institutions involved, and MINIPLAN would be better equipped to perform its coordinating functions. In particular, mechanisms set up to manage the Study Fund could provide the outline for overall capital investment programming. This would give Rwanda the capacity and technical competence necessary to translate its planned priorities into coherent investment programs. 53. The procedures set up for the use of the Study Fund should result in substantially improved coordination between MINIPLAN and the technical ministries and integration of macroeconomic planning and investment program- ming within MINIPLAN. Some risk exists that benefits will not materialize if the Minister of Planning is unable, or not permitted, to carry out his coordinating function or if the Director General of Planning experiences difficulties in integrating the work of the two Directorates reporting to him. The first of these risks, however, remains small, given the President-s inter- est in the project (para. 32). With respect to the second, assistance to the Programs Directorate should help improve its specific contribution to the planning and programming process, and the procedures designed to administer the Study Fund should provide a reasonable framework for integration of the work of the two Directorates; in addition, technical assistance arrangements are sufficiently flexible to make it possible to provide assistance to the Director General of Planning, should this prove desirable in the course of the implementation of the project. Moreover, risks related to integration and coordination are expected to diminish over the life of the project as procedures are tested and accepted. Close supervision by the Association - 18 - would be necessary to help set up the requisite procedures. Nevertheless, given the present lack of coordination within the Government and the poor integration of the planning process, the time frame within which substantial results can be expected remains uncertain and could extend beyond the project period. Finally, some delays are possible in the recruitment of suitably qualified experts and the assignment of counterparts. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 54. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Rwanda and the Association, and the Recommendations of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Asso- ciation are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 55. Special Conditions of the Project are listed in Section III of Annex III of this report. 56. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART V - RECOMMENDATIONS 57. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A.W. Clausen President Attachments Washington, D.C. February 18, 1982 - 19 - ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 TABLE 3A RWANDrA-SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET RWANDA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVEWES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.-) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE TOTAL 26.3 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME HIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 14.6 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 70.0 100.0 200.0 238.3 794.2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) .. 15.8 29.5 70.5 707.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 2916.0 3847.0 4947.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 2.4 3.2 4.2 17.5 27.7 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 9.5 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 29.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2110 POPULATION DENS ITY PER SQ. KM. 110.9 146.3 188.1 27.7 55.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 193.1 253.1 328.8 73.7 130.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 44.3 45.7 46.6 44.8 46.0 15-64 YRS. 53.0 51.6 50.7 52.4 51.2 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.8 2.8 2.8/d 2.6 2.8 URBAN 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.5 5. 1 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 51.1 49.8 49.6 46.9 46.9 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 26.9 22.1 18.7 19.3 15.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.4/c 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 PAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71.100) 81.0 102.0 107.0 89.5 89.9 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 80.0 96.0 98.0 90.2 92.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 49.0 61.0 51.3 52.7 52.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 25.0 34.0 .. 17.8 16.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 41.0 32.2 25.4 27.3 20.2 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 37.2 42.4 46.7 45.8 50.8 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 127.0 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 35.0 23.9 27.4 URBAN .. .. 41.0 55.0 74.3 RURAL .. .. 35.0 18.5 - 12.6 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 53.0 57.0 26.2 URBAN .. 83.0 87.0 63.5 RURAL .. 52.0 56.0 20.3 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 138095.0/c 62048.4 38916.7 31911.8 13844.1 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 11197.O7T 9181.4 10494.4 3674.9 2898.6 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL .. 822.9 652.1 1238.8 1028.4 URBAN .. 47.8 45.4 272.8 423.0 RURAL .. 3224.4 1604.8 1745.2 3543.2 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 21.2 21.3 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. 4.5 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN RURAL 20 ANEX I Page 2 of 5 TABLE 3A RWANDA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET RWANDA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERGES - HOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 49.0 73.0 64.0 56.4 73.7 MALE 68.0 83.0 68.0 70.7 96.8 FEMALE 30.0 64.0 59.0 50.1 79.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 2.0 2.0 10.0 16.2 MALE 2.0 3.0 3.0 13.6 25.3 FEMALE 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.6 14.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (% OF SECONDARY) 40.0 12.0 17.0 8.0 5.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 39.0 60.0 53.0 46.5 36.2 SECONDARY 14.0 13.0 15.0 25.5 23.6 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 16.4/c 23.0/e .- 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 32.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 7.8 17.1 32.8 69.0 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. .. 1.9 8.0 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. 0.04 2.8 20.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. .. 14.6 1.2 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 1650.6 2089.7 2582.3 FEMALE (PERCENT) 49.1 48.6 48.1 34.1 36.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 95.4 93.2 91.2 80.0 56.6 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 1.1 1.6 2.0 8.6 17.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 56.6 54.3 52.2 41.7 37.2 MALE 58.9 56.9 55.0 54.3 47.1 FEMALE s4.4 51.9 49.5 29.2 27.5 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTLMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 148.0 136.0 381.2 RURAL .. .. 85.0 84.5 156.2 ESTLIATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 99.1 334.3 RURAL .. .. 43.0 61.2 137.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 30.0 39.7 RURAL .. .. 90.0 68.8 Not available Not applicable. NOTES Ia The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. lb Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. /c 1962; /d Recent estimated growth rate is 3.2%; /e 1973. May, 1981 - 21- ANNE I Page 3 of 5 DfFINtITION OP SOCIAL. INDICATORS Nones: Although the dat are druon I'ol oca genra:ly judged the meet cthoetatle ted reliable, it should also be notd that they nay sot be intr- eautena.l cIY nparable becus ot the Oat ef aean darded dcftitiiooa and cancepes aaed by diftf-nee cetos ncleteIh aa The date tee ese uhols, use ..ful to describo urdeec tf nanitude. tttdtu-ste,ds, sod oh--eoetie ceso ajr datffetesoet Ieoa Co11ntrie.9h aa The 'eeec rup c I he a~cm o-ctr group at the subject o..uatry and (2) A -tutny geu with -ese-o high- averge it- haaes the cuasney getup ef thesubjec oouuty Concpt o 'aital tuoPlca IOi Eapcreter" greup ehere "teoddla Lscees Noth Attics cod Middle tEst is ..-st oe f steangor -otu-tutuarl tiois) intha ntttceato AutP datast oeae acepoylsttee weighted aithnanl tnttntthih-tt t chasonl bh sae Ifyu ebh te, ist gouup hsdta for that sicc.Oeatecveaeo eure se tbs ldicatu-ra. dapdst the anabisitey ot dat and Ic eon aoltors, onuoton oust he oetni-d to _slatiog avege tf c.. tedioaton to anueha. These eorse ae ny usatf.Ic_santog the -a1ae cf ose isditcaeeataItino swog th,cactrya-d retref ce.. r. up.... _,AA EAlb(hosdsnc. PPupu.lato en Oatu la O-tota, achar, and rura -I uuato ttl Tsl-Total I surtae. tate conpriuiug luod area ou.d inland -aen..uht and raldivIdedrby -hepotine ehtof h.sia beds Aetoitra-Inhate uoaof atrlonsue at osyon...ily on yenosty a-llabIe it public aed prrtat _eacal end setlised hospita n t tot crops, p-aoren, ,kathe acd ki-ohEtgrap or to lie file; 19 adan. hahtlittionee H-. ,eitol.eoe stIisneo prfetl nCe by at issu ... physucian. Vstahlis.uacte =rvdiog princotel, use iGNP PER WIPTA (lol$ - by peeot eaenise note. ahtpio. epidal or ar ct itlded. aa optl,hsrr include health c,Ia,ed by1-. eas .coveoo nethod as world Inch1 Atlas (1907-09tbasis); 1910. ad aedina1 tente.rs no eattl tte ya yhye.ioi (bus by i97l, aod 199 dta. nia site aorts, sidnifo, rtc.) (hich ftto tn-pat itt scea. - dani_e and preidea limited r-_e fameicar ccits ycrent- EiNERG GONICOPTION PER CAPaTA - A-ua r-ouption of -ocsoial ...eegy (cal. tical ParP uses rbue hospitals include WttO. peinoipal/geteta-1 boepinsis, and lignite enoen, atuos Eass and hydu-., nuclta cod gacihttsa t-no--tl, huspitals, loca e men hosptal andndiani .an m-aitar y -toicty) in hilograu c ool- equivalet pen ocpite; 190, 1970, sod 190 cenra. Ipecialeed hosPitals are ioluded only code total. data. Adnis:,aiccanr HtusPita1 Sri - Tonal eunhet of adaissIen to or disohargee irebsttols dividad by tht tubabt of beds. POPUL,ATION AiD VITAL STATISTICS Tota PoEclation, foid-Yloon~ ( ...uoads( - As cf July 1; tI6l, 1970, ocd 19(9 IHOUTING deta. AneragO Sine of fcsH., ftrce vthnunod oa.ubu c us To1bs-PpIto (rreo f -tota) - catic of urbto to tonal yoyulcticn; A heusahod ..atn of a ncpcfIn.divda a hshre lio quasrs difese dftitlan" ofaharan"yafctcmaaihy tdt n b icatt mauls. A hcarde or lodger eay necy -c be iscindsd it oong cutOs 1960, 1970, and 1979 data, the hausahold totrtctia -par-s.. Peoulacice Proitteicte ~~~~~~~~Arerag...unbr of per..anca. p errroot ocal urban, so_ url-Avrgetm Punoltion s yea 2101 - Vrea pplto yrojennin ate hated c 1910 heb tpronpr -1st l chn n ua occupied ta.teii...ui itotl yopy-Lato by uge and tee atd their unrciyae fnniyrta.dyllte. respectcvely.neiin e-tcda e-eratt enu asad Prjcionparts-tra for nocoic .tne copeise of th-e lees1s- - cocpe pos nglit 5 p tope ..cy athot irestwith cou..ney 'a -c cc pita i..m.Ates ec Elcnl's Ceceto deitoo oelara,aeEca _eal,anod talt Iftcnvt lnt nn t-ttn c- 00.5 yasro. Theava tuoonCtl wlintthheecrcty tol.ivtn _utirs as o:tters 'fat fetilIY roteals lava t.. hreelvesaaso decline in of tonal, urbat, and nnci desliiegs reapeniveiy. feolc oodita to (noose levl and peat family plaicig parfovene Ouch .oasary is thocasige ce f thes ... cabitetict of _areity LO_IVCATION adfeotility t_nefor pr.ojetion Parpoe. Ajse VtlnutOec ittciontrv reocla-io - lnea e r.it..ary pplaiothere is no crotch aie iPriye erh-I - total. mlal sodtes-rsa oal aendfa tbahioth rt seua ecodeath rae,en also theag aeuote. en- _orolmee of allte at'sh priasylvla preegeofrsenv tactseao hisIs achtie oly after fertility rate ZAni..to nprimary school-age populationa; ocrlcly inro1udee children eged h-li the sploevuc m1 o no t oe rproaccit roeaheneac aeeonrec ast bat adjusted ton differect ieths at peaa-y adacation; for ofsunreplactitul ".. ttfo.Theaaierypylturst a co.ote i etth -oi-e-a edacatice enola yon eacend 110 Pencei .arinatod noh. basin of the pr-jeoned aateisis fthe pep~alat.ac etoe eve pupils ere bel1-o athbve ehe ffitis1 -h-I age. is,he yea 01,anIhnateo elo ffrilityrte orPlc-eodrrehl-tta.se an female -eatda abort; seudary Tereaicr~r tocelt in te-ctd -The year eden taclo...ry pouaioProvidesgncl vosie r;esachee trainin intrucion o ppt sian ho hoetahtd usually of-10 c-10 yer Efa g;creapoeceoure r gsrally Ptn so.Au- Mid-year population pee squee hilu..sntr (100bteeaof Vocationa en11llts (rer-ent of secodaty) - Vo-tineaI institutina.. ictolaesa;1960,1901 od 091 das. ineluds technical, ta sial, on ather pengrses chith ap aa d i.d.ped- Pee.r hor arclurliod-lt pcd aa shav foergooueaslbd sopteF asda,,, dapeussis f eedcany tsin-tine.. only;1910 197 sod11978 dana. Papil-t-aeh- ratio - nitl-rv. ad emcnndsnv - Tetal tcde...o. erailed to PPoylatnoAt teusts Ipeec..t _ -hildee (0-14 years), nrlgge(10- pti.aTy asd se...odary levels dlvidtd by tashee of t-tbens is tha 64 yanrel sad recited l6IT. yers sodcs)a percentags. of oid-yeaa P.Po- orepdI-g,lvel. incot 19 '1 1900, td 1909 dana. Adlt liteecy rats fPrcrnetl - li_sosoedu1t (shie to read asd tirit) Pouace roach tat(ece)-toa- Atunas go..h rates oft enos aid- sa per-noage of total dadlt populatics aged 15 yese sad ove r. yer oltion" for 1911-hI 1 910-70,ao 19 1-79. Populatin IrahOt oret nac-analgot s f anb.a popa- CfONSUMTION luti... for 1950-6O, 190-701, and 1970-091. Pess..s.er Vats (oar thousand pcl c)-P.......ee trsr canpeles -tain Crude Birth Rtac fPre ob_csd) - AtaatlIlire btrtha per thoanend of mid-yea car saso lineschat iEhlb per..at; eacludes cehulsscse, h-aee end pouato;191, 191, aOd 17da,milltarp vehinlee (radalesothate ten tausad) - Aaaal eahspe Rhnad fmdys adion h..sver.tre n HaIc trltl,nl - All types1 of . rcivers I freadio population; 1911, 1900, and 1909 dana. bract toatrlpba e huad of pplto;acae t Crne tReodactie Mtace-A-esge camber of daughtense mam will ber icensed rce,ivr in cunt . rie sod to years char rg eninof radio herat sa rpdutvpridif ohm euprimnces Prea age-spe.cifcfat- sts tmi fface dat for rson peso na..y not he coparable siee "ilit, rae; IsIyfiv-eraeee o iogi 1960, 09701, sod 1979. aettatee ablished litnsa. of hirth-c.otr devices coder auspices.f naional family plsoto 7mr5. gnea public pee thousasd populaice "IldealcesdT eevr Vanily luonicsOers raec.cc of tarried cont -yroentage of tattld Io _uontries aed It yese that registration uf IIen a is effmt. tomerofihil-h erig ag 1-44 yeats.) nbcom hirah-ct-r-1 de-iceeto Itess icltn orthousan rI aIio)-o sh.etoeeegeir- elI urold woe nsv gegop ia f'al eeal it teneet naW-pepr" defined 'epeicll puhlioutiio devoted pira,tily to os....dingE . garaLtes It istL. dne POll.fO NVOIRITION no he "ail"O inaper -t es fcunnitu.eatt... loden o yoed yoducnuo cer Caita (199-71-il) -IdAn of par cpt sonuo Ci-meAna An c net pit. totY.. Teat-named on thn -ub- of Productiot of all fond -nsdcies.. Produccien n.Uoldee seed nod fsad aed sicktint sOld daring chin y-o, iucndina admiasino no deiva-in nico_ isc oloaryt heels b u,cd iecti . cove pimay nds . sug.r.e.s and abile units.. cn- one otladf.d Aaegats- producnioc of each cootey Las base.d onI.AnR POlCE tatloa vegeproduce.r price ao1hot; 19h1-hl, 19', sod 1979 data. loc alubor Pocce lth-o...a.) - Iconoic-lly sci-c persons, iacladieg Per cpita arnrof clrieV (eoceoa f reoirtet)- Conptedfotad f feneean at.p.y..hu...luit h.a.nva, etadecta, etc., enrY oqiZLtal fcat fod uyle araiobi -unory pen cayi-snvra pnlti f al age. loinitin in. va ri...a countries are per day. Available sapplie topiedngic podactuo, imprt Iss sot cop.ablah; 1960. 190V andl909de. ecynocs, cod chats..t.o. ot letsppliesetldeculfeed, etds.Psle (paro...t(- PFse- hrfeo sprenaeo oallhrfre qu...tist used in food proce sing,, tadlnsct diacrihation. Reqine-_ Ae-out-r (nec-e) -Labnr farce is acg foety beigad. uncteneceeeritiaoed hy PAP basd at. yiLogcl-d for _ne- cI- fishing .Pas . pecesge of total labor force 19, 1900 atd 190 data vity end henlth cc-ildoring ev -tcau ep-r-ar, body eelghga, a0e todastr (prcent) - Labor force to niocog, coeeout,stfactnieg t-d -o dietrihutlon of popl.tei-o, and a11niog 10 peoce-o for eante at aoeeciiy se ndgsspneeg ftoa ao ae 91 houtohold hod; 1911-hO, 1971,acd 1977 data. 1971 ned 1979 data. Par ovit surIc o croetn acut ret dor) Pococnttofpr capita PsMcvaot.t (preecet)-ttl ml. ed tcs,-Prtoiainn or ccc -uyply of food p.0 dp.y Non ...pyly of fond is defnda uv-P-tovn efine rebopted a t talomi, sod fnl ao os qatreanocs foral co riaetablishe by lil1 prvde foendtus peret"iagego loctal. l o femal p.oplatio ofalagrrepofa; all cannot. of hI Voass of tota 1ppr ie per day and 2f gram of atinl cd1960, 1970. and 1909 dn.- Tbhme cr0 ae b oIls ricipasine rsoee Pcla1 yct1 o of ehch II0taca- -bld bm uoiual pronmie. These tac.od- rotltiog age-sen. srter- o the yuLstc adln t ine tresd. A mrdaucs_nI tethath..ef5 rasa tatapc-eLtoedol23nm-nf foet.atatfr ...iun moa- cisal rnia to avecag Cc nIt acrid, _proposd hpPA n h TIr oonic spedeco Antic - Ratio of populetice aoder 10 acl 6t ned -vr World Food luove; 1961-65, 1970 oud 1900 dccc. to the total1 labor forrc. rived dror anirala ad pu,ls.. it tract Fr day; tIll-hI, 1901 sud 1970dsa., INCItE vIOTRIOUTIOI Child (ara 1-4 Oortnltc tat rer th ... and) - A-onal deaths yen thooendto, Percetage o,f,PIvc Otcuc (hoh in -ht acd Aid)t - fece.ived by riches .te geo,yiI sr, toP.- bildre iv this tan gr.,p; tomato dttloptgoc 5prcent, rIches 00 p-nceoc, pru 9pecet., cod puoeeso 40poca loIns d- derived fro life tahlr-; 1960. 1970 rad 1909 data. of housholds.h HEALTH POVERTY TARGVT GROUPS lift toEpr.cyto on Birth ymc)- Averugo ouohsr of ycacr of lifn retisiag The feltgctitaore er pyrco-i te asurse of povertylre, Toao 1teeity Oat f,retchu--cd) - Annal.. Ancha of iWfaotsueden 005 yOt seas Abeolone Povrty boo-s Level i(UI per carica) - orba anod tuarl of eg opduedlv its bslt oev etel-ii ho noeVvlblwwthnnttue Atoseetotafe anr leoc o ouat f-ttal, urhb.. and total - Nou- nnrItctoAlpcdeoY.' dint pla -s-oall. oct-food reqaite t is cot her of pn totl, -ebac, ud ourc1)eb ..tcheacest ue fcdb entr aupply ((iolude- treatsd turfa ccc canah ..... acteenTht unonatratd caiadleaiePvnyoosen1VIce at)-urnaorrl- P fthetcr-speta- ropulatiou...L uauravureanpsblir prnciotnnotnmt try cYrb-c lintel It derived foo the rural fountain or Iatadpos I.c..ed oct m'ar than 00 ntre trota hous ma ho-eve itih adjostoet for-biarr -ne of liolcg in arb-saes eaca-eable ac..sa nould I-ply that the honuewite on ceeher of the houshol feiacdPouaco ael _tof boao oeo toos Lovl(eont r do _ _ hc cc yc dLadipoccrti-v-r peet of ote day to fm-hio1 the poor".i -ba- ttl ~.-"..I faridy'a utte teede... . tatanc peple(toal,anbn, nd carol) setoedhysorta dsnla. peonne f chaIr respectIve poplati-c. Sacrete dieposal sup inolude the coltlo n dIsposal, oilh or clh-tbo :,uc trate, of E-atoces conic ted Social Pat livisian, sod n.tta-atoor by inter-boneaet or teteo l orivies nd ini- 0cAayt o frjeccn Deprt_nt Inn iE-aluttio nay~i 19d11r fooclatint re Physiata -Ppauto dIvided by onubec of rticn phpti- 18 rosu.thuc ren Nuc-in Pen-- .Puculec diridad by umban of practiciet mleaod fen1leg-d-ttsnurtns, pr-tnic1 nre,ndms-ietntoaoe.... -22- Annex I Page 4 of 5 COUNTRY DATA - RWANDA GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1979-80 1979 1980k' US$ Mln. Z -US$ Mln. GNP at Market Prices 1035.0 100,0 1172,5 100.0 Gross Domestic Investment 194,9 18,8 187.7 16.0 n Gross National Saving 113,Q 1Q,9a 21,8 1.9 Current Account Balance 46,8 4,5 54.3 4.6 Export of Goods, NFS 226.6 21.9 165.6 14.1 Import of Goods, NFS 3C8,6 29,8 331.5 28,3 G0VERNMEN'r FINANCE Central Government (RF Mln) % of GDP 1980= 1980 1972 Current Receipts 13,259 12.0 8.3 Current Expenditure 10,468 9.5 10.7 Current Surplus 2,791 2.5 -2.4 Capital Expenditures 2,113 1.9 1.2 MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 (RF Million outstanding, end period) Money Supply 2/ 8,047 10,173 11,224 14,113 15,209 Bank Credit to Public Organisations 480. 221 225 233 219 Bank Credit to Private Sector 2,392. 4,169 4,908 4,330 6,296 (Percentage of Index Numrbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 13.0 14.2 13.9 14.5 14,0 Consumer Price Index (Jan-Mar 1976 = 100) 101.9 116.7 131.3 152.. 163.0 Annual Percentage Changes in: Consumer Price Index 6.9- 14.5 12.5 15.8 7.2 Bank Credit to Public Organisations 5.1 -54.0 1.8 3.6 -6.0 Bank Credit to Private Sector 40.1 74.3 17.7 -11.8 45,4 NOTE: All conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 1/ Provisional 2/ Includes Money and Quasi Money. - 23 - ANNEX I COUNTRY DATA - RWANDA Page 5 of 5 TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1977 1978 1979 1980 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE - - - - 1977-80) Exports of goods, f.o.b. 125.2 110.4 202.9 133.6 US$ Mln % Imports of goods, f.o.b. -102.3 -144.9 -159.5 -204.4 Coffee 80.3 55.9 Trade balance 22.9 -34.5 43.4 -70.8 Tea 10.5 7.3 Cassiterite 7.7 5.3 Services (net) -72.4 -106.3 -127.4 -90.0 iJallfrar. 6.4 4,5 Net transfers 66.9 94.1 130.8 106.5 Pyrethrum 1.8 1.2 Cinchona 2.1 1.5 Balance 6n currenit account 17.4 -46.7 46.8 -54.3 Other 34.9 14.3 Total 143.7 100.0 Direct Investment 5.9 4.7 12.5 17.0 EXTERNL DEBT, Net MLT Borrowing 23.3 20.1 17.6 33.2 DECEBER 31, 1980 US$ Kln Other Capital (net) and capital n.e.i. -24.1 26.1 -7.2 17.4 Public Debt, incl. Increase in reserves (-) -22.5 -4.2 -69.7 -13.3 guaranteed 170.0 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Gross Reserves Total Outscarding (end year) 96.8 99.7 177.3 204.5 and Disbursed -- Petroleum Imports 12.3 11.8 14.5 22.8 E XTERAL DEBT, Di T iERVICE Petroleum Exports - - - RATIO FOR 1980 Public Debt incl. guaranteed 3.2 Non-guaranteed Private Debt _ _ Total outstanding and RATE OF EXCHANGE disbursed Annual Averages End Period 1974-80 December 1981 I3RD/IDA LENDING (Dec. 31.1980) US$ 1.00 = RF 92.84 92.84 (USS Mm) RF 1.00 = US$ 0.011 0.011 OutstandiIg and Disbursed 58.12 Undisbursed S7.48 1/ Provisional .* Outstanding incl. 1/ Provisional Und'sbursed 115.60 2/ Debt Service as a percentage of Exports of Goods and Nonfactor Services. -- - Not available. - 24 - ANNEX II Page 1 of 5 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN RWANDA A. Statement of IDA Credits (As of October 31, 1981) Amount US$ million (Less cancellations) Credit No. Fiscal Year Borrower Purpose IDA Undisbursed (Four credits have been fully disbursed) 31.90 567-RW 1975 Rwanda Education 6.38 3.68 655-RW 1977 DFC I 4.00 .22 656-RW 1977 Agriculture Cinchona 1.80 .54 668-RW 1978 Bugesera Gisaka-Migongo Mixed Farming and Rural Development 14.00 1.68 769-RW 1978 Road Maintenance 15.00 5.30 896-RW 1979 DFC II 5.20 4.73 937-RW 1979 Mutara Agricultural and Livestock Development 8.75 6.32 1039-RW 1980 1/ Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development 21.00 21.00 1057-RW 1981 Telecommunications 7.50 7.44 1126-RW 3/ 1981 2/ Coffee/Foodcrops 15.00 15.00 Total 130.53 65.91 Repaid .28 Total Held 130.25 B. Statement of IFC Investments (As of October 31, 1981) In 1976, IFC made a loan of US$535,000 for a tea factory. A second IFC long-term loan of US$226,000 and contingent equity commitments of up to US$60,000 for an expansion of the tea factory were signed in September 1980. Note: Rwanda has received no Bank loan. 1/ Effective November 11, 1981. 2/ Effective January 18, 1982. 3/ Equivalent to SDR 11.8 million. - 25 - ANNEX II Page 2 of 5 C. PROJECTS IN RWANDA 1/ (As of September 30, 1981) Credit No. 567-RW Education Project; US$8.0 Milion Credit of June 30, 1975; Date of Effectiveness: December 1, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 As now constituted, the project includes construction, equipping and furnishing of 250 primary-school workshops, a school-textbook printshop, and an office building for the School Financing and Construction Services (SFCS) as well as furnishing and equipping of the Rural Agricultural Training Center of Gitarama. The project also provides technical assistance, vehicles and operating expenses for the SFCS. The project has been hampered by implementa- tion difficulties centering on two misprocurements (an amount of US$130,000 was cancelled because of misprocurement of certain construction materials; a second amount of US$1,491,000 was cancelled due to misprocurement of paper) which served to complicate our relations with the Ministry of Education. Since the nomination (March 1981) of a new Minister of Primary and Secondary Educa- tion, together with the assignment of the former Secretary General to the Ministry of Higher Education, however, considerably better relations have developed between us. The new leadership shares our concern for projected costs which the 1979 education reforms would entail. The Government has recently announced the future creation of a permanent commission to evaluate the reforms with a view to modifying them to accord with limited budgetary resources. Most of the 250 workshops are nearly completed. The lack of acceptable record keeping, however, has impeded the processing of disburse- ment requests. Therefore, a final inspection and evaluation mission for the workshops, organized by the Government (with IDA approval) was undertaken successfully in November 1981 with UNESCO assistance. Disbursement should therefore resume shortly. The printshop is now operational and construction of the office building for the SFCS completed. Credit No. 655-RW Rwandese Development Bank Project; US$4.0 Million Credit of August 20, 1976; Date of Effectiveness: March 2, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The credit is now fully committed. The Closing Date was extended to complete disbursements for on-going subprojects financed under the project. No further extension will be necessary. Credit No. 656-RW Cinchona Project; US$1.8 million Credit of August 20, 1976 Date of Effectiveness: March 2, 1977 Closing Date: June 30, 1982 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the understanding they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weakness in project execution. - 26 - ANNEX II Page 3 of 5 The project provides over a five year period inputs and extension services to grow cinchona for export. Progress is satisfactory and there is a strong demand from farmers for planting material. World market prices for cinchona derivates, however, remained low during 1979 and 1980, and OCIR (the implementing agency) had to reduce the farm gate price for cinchona bark and abolish the export tax and the OCIR levy. In September 1980 it was decided to establish a cinchona bark processing plant in the Cyangugu area. This should give Rwanda a stronger position in the future to compete with cinchona derivates on the world market. Credit 668-RW Bugesera/Gisaka/Migongo Mixed Farming and Rural Development Project; US$14.0 Million Credit of March 31, 1977; Date of Effectiveness: November 23, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 The project consists of the promotion of mixed farming and rural development in two regions and the strengthening of the central services responsible for rural development. The project includes tse tse control, field extension and infrastructure, credit, improvement of feeder roads and water supply, a limited number of schools and health centers and establishment of two cattle ranches. The project is cofinanced with BADEA (US$5.0 million equivalent for livestock development and water facilities) and France (US$2.6 million for six technical assistants). Satisfactory progress has been made with programming of work, budgeting and construction. The results of the livestock, foodcrop and plant improvement components however are well below appraisal estimates. A follow-up project which will build on infrastructure put in place under the first project and focus primarily on applied research, training and extension has recently been appraised. Credit 769-RW Fourth Highway Project; US$15.0 Million Credit of April 1978; Date of Effectiveness: August 4, 1978; Closing Date: July 1, 1982 Implementation of the Fourth Highway Project (a US$15.0 million Credit for road maintenance) started in January 1978. Specialists financed under the technical assistance program are performing satisfactorily. Procure- ment of equipment is completed. On the suggestion of the Association, an expert on labor intensive methods visited Rwanda for three weeks in June 1978 and recommended that one mechanized unit be replaced by one unit utilizing labor intensive methods. Following the consultant-s recommendation, the Government has introduced labor-intensive methods for road maintenance. Although the project is about one year behind schedule, implementation is now at its anticipated progress rate and the project is proceeding satisfactorily. Project completion is expected for end-1982. - 27 - ANNEX II Page 4 of 5 Credit 896-RW Second Rwandese Development Bank Project; US$5.2 Million; Credit of July 13, 1979; Date of Effectiveness: January 4, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 The Project aims at providing further assistance to the industrial sector by supporting the activities of the Rwandese Development Bank. It includes two components: (a) a second line of credit of US$5.0 million to finance BRD's foreign exchange requirements and (b) a feasibility study for the establishment of an auditing firm in Rwanda (US$0.2 million). Imple- mentation is proceeding satisfactorily in all respects. Credit 937-RW Mutara Agricultural and Livestock Development Project; US$8.75 Million Credit of July 13, 1979; Date of Effectiveness: May 30, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1983 The project, which is proceeding satisfactorily is the second phase of a long-term development program for the Mutara region. It aims at develop- ing techniques, procedures, and an institutional environment which will make it possible to preserve the production potential of the area, make a rational and more intensive use of available resources, improve farming and ranching techniques, and integrate the project into the local administration. Credit 1039-RW Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development Project; US$21.0 Million Credit of July 7, 1980; Date of Effectiveness: November 11, 1981; Closing Date: September 30, 1986 The project is the first phase of a long-term program to develop the forestry resources of Rwanda and to strengthen the livestock industry. Tech- nical assistance personnel has been recruited. Credit 1057-RW Telecommunications Project; US$7.5 Million; Credit of August 13, 1980; Date of Effectiveness: July 7, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 The project aims at improving the quality of existing telecommuni- cations services, while extending the coverage to geographical areas and segments of the population which at present do not benefit from such services. In addition to improving international and domestic telecommuni- cations (telephone and telex) the project provides technical assistance and training to the Ministry of Post and Telecommunications. The project is cofinanced with FAC and CCCE (US$3.9 million equivalent) and CIDA (Can$4.95 million) and is proceeding satisfactorily. - 28 - ANNEX II Page 5 of 5 Credit 1126-RW Lake Kivu Coffee Improvement and Foodcrops Project; US$15.0 Million Credit of April 29, 1981; Date of Effectiveness: January 18, 1982; Closing Date: December 31, 1986 The project aims at building up an effective extension service which would assist farmers in increasing foodcrop and coffee production using field-tested techniques and also helping OCIR-Cafe (the implementing agency) improve its financial management. The terminal date for effectiveness has been postponed from November 3, 1981 to January 18, 1982 pending provision of the legal opinion. - 29 - ANNEX III Page 1 RWANDA Supplementary Project Data Sheet Technical Assistance Project I. Timetable of Key Events (a) Origin of Project: Request by H.E. the President of the Republic of Rwanda at the time of his visit to Bank Headquarters, September 25, 1980 (b) Identification Mission: January/February 1981 (c) Appraisal Mission: April/May 1981 (d) Negotiations: January 11-15, 1982 (e) Planned Date of Effectiveness: July 1982 II. Special Implementation Action Recruitment of long-term exp;rts financed by UNDP started In 'e Fall of 1981 under the UNDP preparatoL. dssistance procedure, sigul1 ~iy uNIJP on July 15, 1981. III. Special Conditions Government to ensure that qualified Rwandese personnel will be assigned to advisers and consultants hired under the project (para. 41) and to the Documentation Center (para. 42). I I 7 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~: -! - ' ''*d - , 0 >@ ::- Z 11 0 i-d -0,i: X2:-..,B a