Trade & Development Quarterly 22nd edition, April 2010 HI GHL I GHT S NE WS W O RT HY 54144 GLOBAL TRADE ON A REBOUND. Following a sharp drop in early TRADE STRATEGY FOR WORLD BANK LENDING: The World Bank 2009, trade is recovering. Robust import demand from developing countries Group is currently developing what will be its first strategy paper on has been driving this acceleration. Developing countries' imports in value international trade, which will provide overall guidance for our trade terms have been growing faster than high-income countries. Imports of the assistance activities over the coming years. On March 18, we hosted our former were up at an annualized pace of 64% in January 2010 (saar), first outreach meeting in Geneva to discuss the strategy, and anticipate contrasted with 37% in imports of high-income countries. Demand from having a series of events in the near future to solicit input for the design of the emerging markets has also been responsible for some 40 percent of the strategy. We've also launched a website dedicated to the trade strategy, expansion in global exports. By the end of 2009 exports were advancing at an which will allow the public to provide feedback on our work on trade. Send us annualized rate of 47%. However, trade has not recovered to its pre-crisis comments via the webpage: www.worldbank.group/tradestrategy trend. Import values for both developing and high-income countries remain about 20% lower than pre-crisis levels. UPDATES: TRADE FACILITATION FACILITY (TFF): The TFF is a multi-donor trust fund launched by the World Bank in April 2009 to help TRADE VARIES BY REGIONS AND INCOME GROUPS. Import and developing countries improve trade facilitation systems and reduce trade export growth has been far stronger in developing- than high-income costs. The TFF's focus is on low-income countries, particularly Africa. Project countries. For developing countries, East Asia and the Pacific and Latin proposals could be submitted by governments and/or Regional Economic America and the Caribbean showed strong growth in both imports and Communities. To date, the TFF has provided US$3.5 million to support exports. Notably, import growth outpaced export growth in all regions, with following projects: the exception of the Latin America and the Caribbean and Eastern Europe Vietnam Trade Facilitation Audit and Strategic Planning (US$750,000): and Central Asia regions. In particular, import growth for South Asia was assesses trade facilitation conditions by benchmarking it against international substantially higher than export growth, a result of robust demand in India. best practice or of those in comparator countries. Customs Collaboration between the Lesotho Revenue Authority and the South African Revenue Authority (US$930,000): develop a trade information Trend growth of imports in developing and high income platform that facilitates information flow between the governments. countries Trade Facilitation Audit in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) imports in USD millions, Aug 2008=100 (US$249,585): prepare an implementation plan and remedial strategy to reduce 120 trade-related obstacles. 100 Trade Facilitation for Regional Integration Project in Central America (US$50,000): improve supply chain management and procedures in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. 80 Addressing Trade Logistics Bottlenecks and Facilitating International Trade and Transportation in Central Asia (US$660,000): support 60 improvements in trade facilitation systems in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. 40 Developing Trade Corridor Support, Customs Modernization and Assessment of Infrastructure for the Greater Mekong Sub region (US$500,000): evaluate 20 High income the status of existing institutional and infrastructure frameworks and propose opportunities for transport facilitation initiatives for Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, 0 Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Cameroon Customs Technical Assistance (US$373,000): implement Source: DECPG, World Bank performance-pay schemes to reduce customs clearance time at its Douala port, improve operational efficiency and increase the level of transparency within its customs operations PROTECTIONISM REMAINS BUT MUTED. Since October 2008, the Group of 20 (G20) countries implemented 75% of a total 374 trade restrictive measures. But according to a recent WTO/UNCTAD/OECD report, full-scale U P CO MI NG : T RA D E WE EK E VE NTS escalation of protectionism has largely been averted. The coverage of trade restrictive policies (new import restrictions and trade remedy initiations) has SEMINARS FOR ALL PARTICIPANTS been limited to about 0.4% of world imports. But although initiation of anti- Trade Competitiveness in the Post-Crisis Environment, April 28, 9AM- dumping investigations by G20 countries in 2009 was 21% less than in 2008, 12PM, World Bank, Washington, DC countervailing duty and safeguard investigations have both increased Trade Logistics and Facilitation Day - "Show, Tell and Learn", May 6, substantially. Given lags between initiation and imposition of trade remedies, 9AM-5PM, World Bank, Washington, DC a backlog of ongoing investigations could increase the number of barriers Managing Openness: Outward-Oriented Growth Strategies after the imposed in 2010. Crisis, May 10, 12-5PM, World Bank, Washington, DC LEARNING EVENTS FOR WORLD BANK STAFF WORLD BANK IS BUILDING DEVELOPING COUNTRY Tools and Indicators for Trade Analysis, May 3, 9AM-5PM, World Bank, EXPERTISE IN TRADE FACILITATION AND NON-TARIFF Washington, DC MEASURES. Mauritius is undertaking a review of its non-tariff measures Trade Data Retrieval and Analysis with World Integrated Trade Solution (NTMs), as part of comprehensive reform efforts to improve its trade (WITS), May 4, 9AM-5PM, World Bank, Washington, DC competitiveness. Following consultations with the World Bank, the Trade Policy Simulation Tools, May 5, 9AM-5PM, World Bank, government of Mauritius has recently set-up a public-private review Washington, DC committee on NTMs. This initiative has led to a productive dialogue among Heterogeneous Firms and Import Quality: Evidence From Transaction- various government agencies and the private sector, and generated Level Prices, May 25, 12:30-2PM, World Bank, Washington, DC momentum towards streamlining of procedures. Register today at: www.worldbank.org/trade. World Bank Group ­ Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM)-International Trade Department P UBL I CA TI ON S BOOKS OF INTEREST BRIEF NOTES ON TRADE Effective Crisis Response and Openness: Implications Export-led Growth v2.0 by Otaviano Canuto, Mona Haddad, and Gordon for the Trading System by Olivier Cattaneo, Simon Hanson (Economic Premise Note No. 3) March 2010 Evenett, Bernard Hoekman, December 2009- analyzes the China's Investment in African Special Economic Zones: Prospects, ways existing manifestations of openness, including Challenges, and Opportunities by Deborah Brautigam, Thomas Farole, binding international accords, have constrained or enhanced the options available to national policymakers and Tang Xiaoyang (Economic Premise Note No. 5) March 2010 during the crisis and influenced the degree and Managing Openness and Volatility: The Role of Export Diversification effectiveness of cross-border cooperation. More about this by Mona Haddad, Jamus Jerome Lim, Christian Saborowsk (Economic book: http://go.worldbank.org/V2BFM12F50 Premise Note No. 6) March 2010 Leveling or Mining the Playing Field? Implementation Problems of Self-Enforcing Trade - Developing Countries and WTO Carbon-Motivated Border Adjustment Taxes by Michael Friis Jensen Dispute Settlement by Chad P. Bown, November 2009- (PREM Note 146) December 2009 examines the WTO's "extended litigation process," highlighting the interplay of international economics, law, and politics in this process. The book identifies factors that WORKING PAPERS prevent developing countries from disentangling the self- enforcement process and fully using the WTO system. It Skills, exports, and the wages of five million Latin American workers, also assesses the role of the Advisory Centre on WTO Law Irene Brambilla, Rafael Dix Carneiro, Daniel Lederman, and Guido Porto and NGOs in this area. More about this book: (WPS 5246) http://go.worldbank.org/V2BFM12F50 Intellectual property rights and the TRIPS agreement: an overview of ethical problems and some proposed solutions, John Sonderholm (WPS 5228) Global Economic Prospects 2010, an annual World Self-enforcing trade agreements: evidence from time-varying trade Bank publication on forecasts for the global economy, policy, Chad P. Bown, Meredith A. Crowley (WPS 5223) states that the worst of the financial crisis may be over but Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well the global recovery is fragile. It predicts that the fallout diversified, Mona E. Haddad, Jamus Jerome Lim, Christian Saborowski from the crisis will change the landscape for finance and (WPS 5222) growth over the next 10 years. Download this report at: Argentina: trade patterns and challenges ahead, Paloma Anos-Casero, http://go.worldbank.org/OE8NEB3JP0. Valentina Rollo (WPS 5221) Intellectual property rights, human capital and the incidence of R&D expenditures, Claudio Bravo-Ortega, Daniel Lederman (WPS 5217) Distance and regionalization of trade for low-income countries, Celine FOR THE RECORD Carrere, Jaime de Melo, John Wilson(WPS 5214) What happens when the market shifts to China? the Gabon timber Presentation of the Logistic Performance Indicators 2010 (LPI), February and Thai cassava value chains Raphael Kaplinsky, Anne Terheggen, 12, at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva- The World Bank presented findings from the recently launched LPI 2010 and the related report and Julia Tijaja (WPS 5206) "Connecting to Compete: Trade Logistic in the Global Economy". The What are the implications for global value chains when the market presentation focused on key determinants behind countries' logistic shifts from the north to the south? Raphael Kaplinsky and Masuma performance and linkages between the LPI results and the WTO trade Farooki (WPS 5205) facilitation negotiation process. Formulas and flexibility in trade negotiations: sensitive agricultural products in the WTO's Doha agenda, Sebastien Jean, David Workshop on Mainstream Aid for Trade and Agriculture, March 17,at WTO Laborde, Will Martin (WPS 5200) in Geneva - The World Bank, UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Export Restraints on Russian Natural Gas and Raw Timber: What are International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the Organization the Economic Impacts? David G. Tarr (WPS 5195) for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) discussed national and Trade in 'virtual carbon': empirical results and implications for regional programs for agriculture. The Bank addressed the importance of policy,Giles Atkinson, Kirk Hamilton, Giovanni Ruta, and Dominique van agriculture in reducing poverty, the need for a steady increase in agricultural der Mensbrugghe (WPS 5194) investments and developing country access to inputs to increase land yields. What constrains Africa's exports? Caroline Freund, Nadia Rocha (WPS 5184) Dialogue on Implications of the Doha Round, March 22, Geneva ­The Developing countries, dispute settlement, and the advisory centre on World Bank, International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development WTO law, Chad P. Bown, Rachel McCulloch (WPS 5168) (ICTSD), Peterson Institute for International Economics, and WTO met to Trade finance in crisis: should developing countries establish export address the modalities under discussion in this negotiation round, prospects of credit agencies? Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Christian Saborowski, Ahmet I. concluding the Doha Round, its political and economic challenges, implications Soylemezoglu (WPS 5166) and impact on the world economy. Krueger/Schiff/Valdes revisited: agricultural price and trade policy reform in developing countries since 1960, Kym Anderson (WPS 5165) Meeting on Africa and Enhancing Growth and Reducing Poverty in a China's new trade issues in the post-WTO accession era, East Asia Volatile World, February 1, at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) PREM Department (Report No. 53244) in Geneva- The World Bank addressed the consequence of the financial crisis Gender and transport in MENA: case studies from West Bank Gaza on Africa and discussed the policies adopted before and after the global and Yemen, Lamis Ajounaidi (Report No. 53378) downturn. Contact Us: Website: http://www.worldbank.org/trade E-mail: tradenews@worldbank.org 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 USA