Connections Transport & ICT How China’s Transport Sector Can Contribute to Carbon Reduction Weimin Zhou 896.3 The Chinese government, based on its commitment to carbon reduction in the Paris Climate Agreement, laid out its intention to achieve peak CO₂ emissions by 2030, and to make its best effort to peak as early as possible. It committed to lowering CO₂ emissions million tons per unit of GDP by 60–65 percent of their 2005 Estimated total 2016 levels, and to increasing the share of non-fossil fuels CO emissions by China’s in primary energy consumption to about 20 percent. transport Although these targets were set up for the country sector as a whole, it is essential for decision makers and practitioners to understand the contribution the transport sector can make if its development path is aimed at sustainability. Refine China’s Emissions Estimates In China’s current statistics on national energy consumption, the transport category includes all The ‘top-down’ approach, which calculates emis- consumption by transport activities in business op- sions based on the consumption of various types erations, including urban public transport, railway, of fuels, is commonly used to estimate transport’s coach, and freight services on roads, airways, and national-level carbon emissions. Energy consump- waterways. But it also includes consumption by tion by the transport sector, in the widely used In- support facilities such as terminal buildings, offices ternational Energy Agency (IEA) definition, includes for operations, etc. The energy consumption of “all transport activity in mobile engines, regardless private vehicles, construction vehicles, company ve- of the economic sector to which it is contributing.” hicles, etc. is not included in the transport category, The estimates can then be benchmarked among but is reflected in the energy statistics of other different countries and regions. Using this defini- categories, such as citizens’ businesses, private tion, in 2015 the total GHG emissions of the U.S. buildings, etc. transportation sector were about 2,015 million tons CO2-equivalent,1 while the GHG emissions in EU-28 To focus on the transport activities of mobile en- were about 1,048 million tons.2 gines, and to be consistent with international stan- dards for benchmarking, the following two adjust- 1 Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P100S7NK.pdf. 2 Source: European Environment Agency. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/transport-emissions-of-greenhouse-gas- es/transport-emissions-of-greenhouse-gases-10. JUNE 2018 NOTE 2018 - 2 ments need to be made to the results from China’s the United states, the average proportion of total statistical system: energy consumption by the transport sector was about 33 percent. This implies that China’s energy 1. The energy consumption of private vehicles consumption in the transport sector has room to and other vehicles, now accounted for in other grow; and with further industrial restructuring, its sectors, should be included in the transport share will be much higher in the future. sector data. In 2016, diesel and gasoline—at 82 percent—repre- 2. The energy consumption of transport-related sented the majority of fuels consumed by transport buildings and facilities should be excluded in China. Also, the total carbon emissions in the from the transport sector data. transport sector reached about 900 million tons. For benchmarking purposes, the transport sec- Look at Transport’s Share of China’s tor CO₂ emissions alone in U.S. in 2015 were about Energy Consumption 1,953 million tons,7 about twice the level of transport emissions in China. There have been several papers and studies setting out methodologies for benchmarking the energy The Way Forward consumption and carbon emissions of the transport sector.3 4 5 Most of them adopted the ‘fuel separa- China is still on the fast track of economic develop- tion’ method, identifying the amounts of gasoline ment. With rapid urbanization and motorization, and diesel consumption in other sectors, and then travel demands will continue to grow substantially including them in the transport sector. This method in the future. This implies that energy consumption is based on the common observation that most of and GHG emissions will continue to grow. the gasoline consumed in other sectors belongs to transport, and about 35 percent of the diesel After understanding the structure of energy con- consumption in other sectors should be counted as sumption and GHG emissions in the transport part of the transport sector. sector, and benchmarking the emissions with other counties, it is clear that curbing GHG emissions Over the past 17 years, total energy consump- from the transport sector will become more and tion by the transport sector has tripled, from 135 more important in the control of total emissions. million-tons of coal equivalent (TCE) in 2000 to Improving transport efficiency, shifting road trans- 443 million TCE in 2016. However, the proportion port to cleaner transport modes such as waterways of transport’s energy consumption to China’s total and railways, and upgrading the energy of road energy consumption remained relatively stable, transport to cleaner modes are the three main paths averaging between 9 and 10 percent.6 During the to reducing the carbon emissions of the transport past decade there was substantial growth in over- sector. all energy consumption nationwide. The growing demand for travel, coupled with structural reforms New technologies play a key role in all paths. Big toward energy-saving and environmentally friendly data and internet-based technologies allow the industries, was reflected in transport’s relative share easy sharing and analysis of information, which sub- of the total, which rose from 9.75 percent in 2014 stantially improve the efficiency of transport. High- to 10.5 percent in 2016. speed rail and connected inland waterway channels provide competitive alternatives to road transport Transport’s share of consumption in China’s energy for both passengers and freight. And clean energy sector is still quite low compared with other de- technology represents the possibility of zero-emis- veloped countries. In 2014, both in the EU 28 and sion transport in the future 3 Jia Shunping, Mao Baohua, Liu Shuang, Sun Qipeng; The Transportation Energy Consumption Level Evaluation and Analysis; Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology. Feb 2010. 4 Han Wenke, Kang Yanbing, Liu Qiang; China’s 2020 Low Carbon Target: Approaches and Measures; China Development Press. Oct 2012. 5 Dai Yande, Zhu Yuezhong; Thirteen’s Five Year Plan and Transport 2030 Energy Saving Target Study; Energy Foundation and Energy Research Institute (NDRC). Mar 2017. 6 EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. 1990–2016. 7 Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P100S7NK.pdf Connections is a series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. JUNE 2018 NOTE 2018 - 2