RESTRICTED \R~-E,TU?W TO 25@| F Report No. EMAlOa t, FIL u.I V This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accurccy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF THE UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC August 18, 1969 Europe, Middle East and North Africa Department CURfENCY L4jIJIy-ALENT2,I, 1 Fgyptian Pound (LF) = 2.30 J. Dollars 1 US dollar = L.. O.!435 1 L.E. = 100 piasters 1,000 milliemes 1 tallarie 20 piasterc vFEIGNTS AND I2AUTJRES 1 hectare = 2.379 feddans 1 feddan = 1.038 acres 1 acre = 0.963 feddan 1 sq. kilometer - 238 feddans 1 ardeb (metric) = 198 liters = 150 kilograms (kg) Of WIheat, lupine, fenugreek = l55 kg of beans, sesame, lentils, chick peas, clover = lO140 kg of maize, millet, groundnuts = 120 kg cottonseed, barley 1 kantar 157.5 kg of seed cotton1 = 20.2 kg onions = ll5 kg sugarcane 1 dariba (metric) = 945 to 935 kg of rice (paddy) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i I. INTRODUCTION 1 The Growth of Population and Agricultural Output 2 The Organization and Management of the Economy 3 The Balance of Payments Problem 4 II. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES 5 III. POPULATION, MANPOWER AND EDUCATION 8 Population 8 Manpower 9 Education 11 IV. AGRICULTURE 12 Characteristics of the Agriculture 12 Output 13 Yields and Technical Change 14 Farmland and Labor 15 Income 16 Public Investment 17 Research and Extension 17 Credit 18 Prices and Costs 18 Marketing 20 Planning and Coordination 21 Improving the Agricultural Performance 21 Conclusions and Proposals 27 V. INDUSTRY 29 Petroleum 30 Chemicals 31 Textiles 32 Food Processing 32 Steel 33 Mining 33 Concluding Remarks 33 Page No. VI. PUBLIC FINANCE, MONEY AND PRICES 34 Public Finance - Overall View 34 Past Trends 35 Recent Developments - Stabilization vs. Growth 38 Organizational Problems and Policies 40 Money and Prices 42 Prospects 43 VII. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMEMIIS 45 Balance of Payments 46 Exports 46 Imports 50 Invisibles 51 The Terms of Trade 51 Direction of Trade 52 Commercial Policy 53 Capital Inflows and External Indebtedness 54 VIII. FUTURE PROSPECTS 55 Issues and Prospects 55 Projections 57 ANNEX: Assumptions Used in Projections 60 STATISTICAL APPENDIX This report was prepared by a mission which visited the UAR in Jamuary 1969,, The mission consisted of Messrs. A. Karaosmanoglu (Chief), K. Bahr, G. Pennisi, G. Sciolli and L. T. Sonley. BASIC DATA Area: Total - 1,002,000 square kilometers Populated - 35,580 square kilometers Population: (1966 census) - 30 294,000 Rate of growth : 2.8% Density : 845 per square kilometers populated area Political Status: Republic. Member of Arab League Gross National Product (1966/67) At current market prices : LE 2747.5 million At constant prices of 1964/65 : LE 2306.0 million Gross National Product per capita 1-966/67) At constant prices of 1964/65 ŁE 74 Gross Domestic Product (1966/67) : At constant prices of 1964/65 : LE 2325.0 mil.lion Rate of growth 1964/65 - 1966/67 : 2.6% Composition of Gross Domestic Product(1966/67) At current factor cost j; Agriculture 28 Industry and Mining 22 Construction 4 Electricity 1 Transportation, communication and storage Commerce and Finance Housing 4 Services 2e Expenditures 1966/67 Percent of G.N.P. at market prices Personal consumption 67.3 Government consumption 19.7 Total domestic investnnt 14.5 Inventories 1.5 Exports of goods and services 16.9 Imports of goods and services 18.4 Current account deficit 1.5 Resource gap of % of gross fixed investment: 1966/67 196465,-1966/67 Not including interest payments 17 22 Including interest payments 22 26 Money and credits: (ŁE million) End of L968 196l5-1968 Increase per annum Total money supply 1012.:3 3.5 Time and savings deposits 222.7 4.1 Cost of living index, rate of incdrease: Jul 1965- Julyl968 Tannual average) 2.6% Public sector operations: (BE million) 1967/68 1964/65-1967/68 Increase per annum Government current revenue 514.6 6.2 Government current expenditure 631.8 3.1 Balance -117.2 - Public Investments 218.8 -10.4 External Public Debt, including undisbursed: (US$ million) As of June 30, 1968: 1.687.6 Balance of payments, 1967/68 (U.S.$ million): Exports 582.8 Imports 889.6 Net services and current transfers -49.0 Current account balance -355.8 Commodity concentration of expor.ts Raw cotton 44.8 Rice 16.0 Cotton yarns and textiles 1802 - 3 - Foreign exchange reserves 1968/69 (U.S. $ million) : Net: 305 Gross: 356 IMF position (as of January 1, 1969 U.S. $ million) : Quota : 150 Drawings : 96.5 I SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. In the last three years, after an inflationary period which re- sulted in serious problems in internal finance and the balance of payments, the UAR has followed policies of stabilization which heve improved the financial situation and also, to some extent, strengthened the external position. 2. As a result of stringent application of stabilization measures and the June 1967 war, the economy has shown signs of stagnation. In the current fiscal year the Government has started to take steps to aetivatc the economy. To achieve expansion without creating inflation and its undesirable consequences will be one of the main concerns of the UAR Government in the near future. 3. In the longer run, the country is faced with three main groups of development problems, namely, (a) the rapid population increase and the limitation of land and water resources, (b) weaknesses in the organization and management of the economy, and (c) the balance of rayments problem. 4. Ability to cope with these problems should be analyzed against the existence of highly qualified manpower, the high level of technical knowhow and past performance in agriculture, new develcpments in the discov- ery and the utilization of natural resources (oil, nattral gas, phosphates), the ability of certain branches of Egyptian industry tc export significant amounts of semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, and finally, the tour- ism potential of the country. 5. The acuteness of the population problem has teen recognized by the UAR authorities, but due to a variety of factors (weak organization, lack of technical knowhow and financial constraints) an effective family planning program has not been started. In recent months, however, the Government has renewed its efforts in this direction. 6. Despite explicit policies of full employment, unemployment has been rising in recent years. Furthermore, there are signs of widespread disguised unemployment. The lack of coordination between employment, wage and educational policies resulted in an abundance of university trained man- power and an acute shortage of technicians. Recent changes in policies re- garding manpower and educational planning and proposed changes in the edu- cational structure show that the Government has now recognized the importance of relating educational programming more closely to the economic needs of the country. 7. Agriculture provides about half of employment, 28 percent of GDP and four-fifths of exports. The recent performance of the sector has led to concern, the virtual stagnation in yields per acre being particularly disturb- ing. 8. Land development already underway or planned - reclamation (new land), conversion of basin irrigation to perennial irrigation, and drainage - is unlikely to expand the cropped area through 1975 as rapidly as the growth of population. This puts the burden of agricultural development on yield - ii - increases. But these have been unimlpressive of late, perhaps because of (a) a rise in the water table and associated salinity and other problems; (b) the relatively long time required to reach acceptable yield levels on new land brought into production for the first time; and (c) a slowinag down of the rate of modernization of the agricultural sector, associated in part with the rapidly deteriorating drainage conditions. This last factor may be close- ly related to organizational aspects and pricing policies and to the shortage w of foreign exchange available for the purchase of imported input.. Yield levels, however, vary greatly between. di.fferent parts of the country. The strikingly favorable results obtained. from some experiments in concentrating extension services, and the scope for increasing fertilization lievels are bases for a hopeful outlook for future increases in agricultural production. The current effort in agriculture should be geared first of al.l -to increasing yields both by improved drainage and. modernization. Secondly, new lands shDuld be brought into cultivation to assure full utilization of the available water supply. The possibilities of increasing available water and the optimal ut:i- lization of all water resources should be studied. International market con- ditions should be taken into account, more than in the past, in decisions on allocating agricultural resources and price policies. The general aim should be to establish a closer relationship between real cost and the prices paid by consumers and farmers. 9. Industry has played a leading role in the development strategy of the country and a wide range of industries have already been built up. After the 1961 nationalization measures mcst industrial activity was; put under government control. At present about 80 percent of industrial. production is within the public sector. Recently, due largely to problems of organization and management but also due to the shortage of foreign exchange, industrial output has shown little growth and rany plants have been working below capa.- city. The Government seems to have recognized the need for reform. During the last year and a half several coizmittees have been established to study the problems of industry and to prolc,se changes. These efforts are a welcomne beginning, but no significant changes have so far been proposed. 10. Organization and management problems of industry are! related to a variety of factors including allocation of decision making responsibilities, plant size, employment policies, foreign exchange shortages, etc. If these difficulties could be overcome many industries would have a significant growth potential for both local and export markets. This is especially the case of petroleum, chemicals, engineering and, in the longer run, mining. More traditional activities, such as textiles and food processing, while re- taining the protected local market will need to im'?rove their efficiency to increase their sales to competitive export markets. 11. During the last few years the Government has concentrated its efforts, with some success, on imprcving the budgetary situation and over- coming short-term balance of payments, difficulties which had led to an accumulation of arrears and defaults of external debt payments. Ensuring an adequate increase in public investment is the main long-run target of fiscal policy. Balance of payments constraints require that a substantial effort - iii - should be made to mobilize domestic resources. Improvements in the balance of payments will depend on the success of government in implementing a more effective trade policy and an improvement in the terms of borrowing. 12. Exports consist mostly of products of agricultural origin, cotton and cotton products being the most important. In recent years, rice has also become more important. If world prices of these commodities decline as projected by the Banks Commodity Specialists, exports will need to expand in quantity by 20 - 30 percent in the coming five to six years to '-aint^sir, present levels of foreign exchange earnings. Prospects for other exports are however more promising and, political conditions permitting, earnings from tourism could increase rapidly. 13. Projections have been made to present the prospects for the eco- nomy for the next six years in quantitative terms. When the extent of un- certainties affecting the economy (political conditions in the Middle East, uncertainty about earnings from the Suez Canal, even when reopened, future trends of defense expenditures) are considered, these can only be regarded as showing one of a variety of possible patterns of growth. 14. If all opportunities were used to good advantage, GDP could expand at a rate of 6.5 percent per annum in the period. Total investment over the period is projected to reach LE 2,720 million (increasing by 8 percent annu- ally). Foreign exchange earnings projections add up to an increase of about 6 percent per annum in the aggregate. The projected resource gap for the period is about LE 200 million, but the gross capital requirements (including service payments on existing and future debt) reach more than LE 1,000 mil- lion. The debt service ratio (including all foreign exchange earnings) after a hump in 1970 would be around 24 percent during the rest of the period. 15. In view of the weak balance of payments position, the UAR should aim to borrow, as much as possible, on concessional terms. Even if it could borrow readily on such terms, major changes in economic policy would be neces- sary to bring about a radical improvement in the balance of payments. This is greatly needed if the UAR is to be in a position to plan the development of the economy free from the persistent problems of foreign exchange shortage. I A I. IMWODUCTION 1. The UAR economy has been undergoing a series of structural changes during the 16 years since the revolution in 1952. In this period several major events and developments have taken place, each affecting the economic and the social structure. These included an extensive land reform, the Suez crisis, nationalization of industry and foreigni trade, the Yemen war and the June 196T war. Despite all these, the economy lias demonstrated its vitality by sustaining reasonably high rates of growth. 2. During this period the composition of output lhas changed signif- icantly; the shares of agriculture and industry respectively changed from 42 percent and 8 percent in 1951 to 27 percent and 22 percent in 1967. 1/ Industry and trade were transformed from being predominantly private sector activities to predominantly public sector activities. land tenure changed sutstantially. Whereas before the 1952 land reform, 94 percent of land owners owned only 35 percent of land and 0.2 percent of land owners con- trclled 27 percent of the land, in 1965 94 percent owned 57 percent of the lan(d and 0.1 percent owned 6.5 percent. Between 1952 and 1967 the cropped area increased from 9.3 million feddans to 10.5 million feddans (13 percent). During the same period the population increased from 21.4 million to 31.1 million (45 percent). 3. At the present juncture the major development problems of the UAR may be summarized in three groups: These are (a) population increase and the growth of agricultural production; (b) the organtization and manage- ment of the economy, and, (c) the balance of payments. Agriculture is not the only source of livelihood for the increasing population, but for the domi- nantly agricultural economy of Egypt the balance between the population in- crease and agricultural production demonstrates the limits for future growth and the choice of the directions of development. 4. These problems which are discussed later must be set against the elements of strength in the economy. Among these is thE outlook for an in- creasing agricultural output. Between 1960 and 1965 the value of agricultural production is estimated to have been increased between 3 and 3.5 percent per annum. In the near future the investments in the High Dam and the associated land development including drainage should favorably affect output. The use of modern inputs and improved cultivation practices will expand, in part as a result of crop consolidation schemes aimed at installin; cropping patterns on a village-wide basis. Under this arrangement, fairly large blocks of contiguous plots are required to be planted to the sane crop regardless of the land ownership pattern. Although there may be at times some resentment on the part of some farmers, since the specific use to which they can put a specific plot is restricted, the system enables a measure of land use control and permits better use of irrigation water as well as facilitating pest control and other measures to improve yields. Another source of output gain 1/ Unless otherwise stated years are fiscal years ending June 30. In this case July 1, 1966 - June 30, 1967. is a shift to high value crops suet as fruits and vegetables as markets per- mit. Progress in this direction is taking place but its full. exploitation will require skilled merchandising ard effective foreign market penetration. 5. Prospects for oil production also appear very favo7rable. It has already increased from about 3 million tons in 1960 to about 6 mnillion in 1968 and is expected to reach 12 million tons or more in 1969. a&nd 36 million tons in 1975. This would provide Egypt in 1975 with perhaps US $133 million of net foreign exchange earnings net of oil imports a year as compared to a net expenditure of $30 million in 1967. A deposit of natural gas has recently been found in the Delta, which together with the new electric power from the High Dam, means that there may be an abundance of energy for some years. 6. The development of modern industry in Egypt dates from the depres- sion of the 1930's. It now provides about one-fifth of the nat:Lonal product as compared to somewhat less than one-third provided by agriculture. Most of the industries are based on the processing of agricultural raw materials, of which the cotton textile industry is by far the most importarnt. The rela- tive shares of chemicals, steel and steel-based industries are iLikely to in- crease in the near future as a resuLt of projects under consideration and implementation. Egypt has been exporting significant quantities of industrial products amounting to an average of IE 63 million during the last three years and this is likely to increase. 7. The Suez Canal, when reopened, will again be one of EEgpt's import- ant assets, although the development of super tankers poses some questions for future expansion. The negative effects of super tankers on the return from oil transport may however be mitigated to some extent by revenues from a new pipeline from Suez to Alexandria. Finally, tourist attractions brought Egypt a substantial foreign exchange incorae until the June 1967 war. This has a good potential for the further growl-Ih provided political evenlts do not dis- courage potential visitors. The Growth of Population and Agricultural Output 8. The population of the UAR is groving at about 2.8 percent per year. The total population is estimated at; 31 million almost wholly concentrated in the valley and the delta of the liile, where irrigated agriculture is possible. The population density ir. the inhabited area is around 2,200 per square mile which is one of the high,est in the world. In November 1965 the Government officially introduced a program of population control. The cover- age of the program so far has been too limited to expect any measurable effects on the birthrate and hence cn the rate of population groTwth. There is a need for more determined effort; tiae Government so far appears not to have given the necessary priority tc the family planning program. 9. As a result of the increasing population and the composition of the agricultural production, the balance of payments of the UAR 3hows sig- nificant deficits in food. In 1967 and 1968 net food imports ranged around LE 80 million and constituted on the average about 74 percent of the trade deficit. For the future, however, there are some possibilities to improve. - 3 - this. Improved drainage throughout the Nile Valley would increase food production substantially and most of the new areas that will be reclaimed will be used for food crops. 10. Even since the time of the Pharaohs, the Egyptians have been con- cerned with the problem of making the best use of the water from the Nile. Beginning in the early nineteenth century a series of barrages have been constructed on the Nile to hold back some of the flood water for irrigation. The High Dam at Aswan is the culmination of this process in that it will enable the whole present flow of the river to be utilized. It is expected to permit a 25 percent increase in the cropped area. This would offset some eight or ten years of population growth at the present rate. In addition to the High Dam there is still some scope for increasing the amount of Nile water by constructing works on the Upper Nile in Sudan and Uganda. This could at most add about 15 percent to the water now available to the UAR. There is also the possibility of utilizing significant qaantity of under- ground water. However, extensive study is required to determine how much can be done in these ways. Apart from these resources, the future growth of agricultural production in Egypt will depend on making more efficient use of the presently available water, at least until the cost of desalinization has been reduced to make the use of desalted water economic for agricultural purposes. The Organization and Management of the Economy 11. In Egypt all the major utilities and industriaL enterprises are Government-owned. Much of the country's external trade lhas been centralized and is carried on by Government agencies. Central control has been further increased because of the acute shortage of foreign exchange which inevitably places important economic decisions in the hands of the government. 12. Although most of the farmland is privately owned and operated, the agricultural activity is under rigorous government control. For exam- ple, farmers are assigned target acreages for major crops; deviations can be penalized. The kinds and amounts of farm inputs supplied to farmers are set by the Government, and they are sold by a public monopoly. Many input and product prices are set by the Government, with the need for both revenue and foreign exchange ranking high as determinants. Irrigation water is pub- licly managed and free to farmers. Almost all of the faxmers are members of agricultural cooperatives through which they receive agricultural credits in amounts and terms publicly determined. With this organi2ational set up and concentration of power, one of the major tasks facing government today is to assure that its machinery produces and implements the flcw of decisions needed to capitalize fully upon the expanding production capacity of the agricultural sector. 13. A virtual absence of competition and an uneconomic employment policy has led to problems of inefficiency and lack of incentives in many industrial enterprises. The solution of these problems requires that more autonomy may be given to individual enterprises. Although this is generally recognized in principle there does not seem to be clarity in practice as to how it is to be done. The government has undertaken some studies lately, but at this stage it is too early to expect a significant outcome from these eff'orts. Price controls have created disparities between domestic and foreign prices and within the domestic price system. At present prices received by farmers for their produce (with the exception of wheat) are significantly below world mar- ket prices, while the efforts to increase the exports of manuf'actured goods are only becoming effective with increasing export subsidies. Up to now prices are being determined on the basis of' unsystematic administrative decisions. Only very recently a ministerial comnmittee was established to study costs and prices in general. 14. Some improvements are neecLed in the investment decision-making process. Expenditures on the Aswan Hign Damr and import-substituting in- dustries absorbed most of the investments in the 1960's. Balance of pay- ments effects of particular investmenits were not thoroughly studied. As a result, the current squeeze on foreign exchange has kept many of these new industries operating at far below capacity. The long term plan under pre- paration may improve the process of allocation of resources, but the flexi- bility for making entirely new investment decisions may not be very wide. There are several projects under construction among which the largest is the steel complex at Helwan, (about iE 350 million). If it is constructed as expected within the next five years it will absorb about 14 percent of total investments. On the assumption that investments in industry will be about 30 percent of total investmen-, the steel complex will absorb close to half of industrial investment. 15. It has been apparent for some time that, in financing its econ- omic development, the UAR has been relying relatively too much on the import of capital and too little on its own savings; this was one of the main themes of the Bank's 1966 report. Since this affects the whole question of financing an adequate program of development in the future, it is without doubt one of Egypt's most important long-term problems. Since the rate of taxation is not law, the increase in savings could only be realized by controlling defense expenditures (more than 10 percent of GDP in recent years) and by increasing the surpluses of the "Business Budget" sector. The latter will not be possible unless the efficiency of existing industry improves s:ignificantly and more rigorous economic criteria are employed in the selection of new projects. The Balance of Payments Problems 16. The balance of payments problem is in effect a reflection of the problems summarized in the previous two groups. In addition the availability and terms of external capital should be mentioned. More than, 80 percent of western debt is scheduled for repayment by 1975. Even if the recent efforts in the direction of reducing the current accounts deficit prove to be suc- cessful, the UAR will need a subst&mtial inflow of capital to service its outstanding obligations. The terms under which such funds will be provided will be of decisive importance in the manageability of the balance of payments situation in the future. The more specif'.c problems of the balance of pay- ments will be discussed later. - 5 - II. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES 17. After expanding at about 6.5 percent per annum during the first five-year plan period (1961/65), the growth rate has since declined in the UAR. An overall slowdown started in 1966 when an unfavorable harvest aggra- vated an already difficult external payments situation. This in turn had the effect of curtailing industrial production by limiting the imports avail- able. Although the first five-year plan envisaged a reduction of the bal- ance of payments deficit, it was thought that this could be brought about by the development of import-substituting industries. However, insufficient provision was made for induced imports. The balance of payments deficit ave- raged 2.3 percent of GNP during most of the 1950's but reached 5.6 percent in the three years after 1963. Borrowing on relatively hard terms added to these difficulties. 18. Value added in agriculture increased only 1 percent in 1966 and declined 3.3 percent in 1967. The slowdown in industrial output actually started earlier. The increase in 1965 was only 4.2 percent. A study under- taken by the UAR Government estimiated excess capacity in industry in 1966 at about 31 percent. Value added of the industrial sector in 1966 was only 2.5 percent more (in constant terms) than the previous year and in 1967 it was less than 1 percent more. 19. As a result of these developments, the rate of increase in GDP has declined since 1965. In 1966 it was about 4.5 percent a&d less than 1 per- cent in 1967. Investment also declined by about 7 percenat in 1967 after reaching their highest level in 1966. This decline continued in 1968. 20. Government deficits (both current and overall) and credit expansion reached their highest levels in 1966. Following a change in Government, a period of fiscal and monetary restrictions ensued in 1967 and 1968. The over- all deficit as well as the current budget deficit was redluced in 1967, and has been maintained at roughly the same level for the fo:Llowing two years. Imports were reduced by almost 19 percent between 1966 amd 1967. In 1967 there was a decline in defense expenditures, which have sitarted to increase again in subsequent years. These restrictive policies were conditions of a standby agreement with the IMF. 21. By 1966, the accumulation of external debt, mueh of it in the form of supplier credits, had reached a point at which the UAR found it difficult to maintain its debt payments. Arrears started to accumulate including repurchase to the IMF. Government then startedl negotiations for a rescheduling of arrears. The first of these agreementi; was reached in the second half of 1966 in conjunction with credits from foreign commercial banks. Following this, general rescheduling agreements rere reached with France, Italy and the U.K. and individual agreements with the main suppliers in countries such as Germany and Sweden. -6- 22. The year 1968 was an exceptional one. The June war resulted in the loss of earnings from the Suez Canal (LE 95 million in 1967) and from the oil fields in Sinai. In additioa, the cotton crop was small, although total agricultural output was better than the previous year. 23 T'he 1968 budget was originally presented to the NationEl Assembly a few weeks before the June war. It showed an overall deficit orb LE 80 million. However, even while the budget was under discussion, the govern- ment decided to revise it because it was regarded as too inflationary. The war then made more drastic rev-isions necessary in view of the higher defense expenditure and the shortfall in government revenues. 24. After the budget was revised, the Khartoum agreement was signed, under which Egypt has been receLving $253 million annually, ($98.5 million from Saudi Arabia, $59 million from Libya and $95.5 million from Kuwait). The combination of this inflow with the budgetary measures has resulted in an internal financial situation better than had been seen for several years. On the other hand the level of public investment, as a proportion of GDP, has fallen to less than half of what it was five years ago. 25. All these retrenchment measures formed the basis for a new agree- ment with the IMF in March 1968. With the help of commercial bank credits from the U.K., Germany and Italy, the UAR repaid the outstanding arrears to the Fund. Following this repayment, the IMF has approved two simultaneous drawings by the UAR, a US $40 millicn drawing and a US $23 million drawing of compensatory finance to meet a temporary shortfall in export earnings. 26. Egypt stopped the repayment of rescheduled arrears to the U.K. after tiae June war but negotiations for the rescheduling of arrears continued and agreements concluded however both with the U.K and some other countries (Denmark, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands). 27. The national accounts figures for 1968 are not yet available. Partial indicators, however, indicate that it was another year of stagnatioan, if not decline. As mentioned above, the income from oil, as wrell as earnings from the Suez Canal and some mining cperations, did not come in. Tax re- venues declined slightly from LE 40.4 million in 1967 to LE 39.7 million in 1968. Investment expenditure was at the lowest level since 19S61 and the imports of intermediate goods did not increase. The sharp decline in over- all imports continued, 8 percent in 1968 as against 19 percent in 1967. There was also a decline in exports of about 5 percent due largely to the loss of Sinai oil fields and a decline in cotton exports. If these two are excluded, other commodity exports increased by about 11 percent. The defi- cit on current accounts and transfer payments increased from LE 49 million in 1967 to about LE 72 million in lS168. Arab assistance was the main factor K to permit this increase but it was E,vailable only after October 1967. 28. When the situation and prospects for 1969 are studied, a different picture emerges. The Government haE decided to take some steps to revive economic activity. An increase in investment is being plannedL; the budgeted public investment in 1969 is LE 312 million as compared to LE 219 million in -7- 1968. With an increase in private sector housing investment, total fixed investment is expected to reach FE 330 million. Despite the planned increase in investment expenditure in the current year the investment level will still be lower than the 1966 level. Private investment in housing is being en- couraged by softer lending terms from the Real Estate M[ortgage Bank. 29. New purchasing power is being injected into the economy by in- creasing the borrowing ceilings for Government employees from the banking system. The prices of some consumer durables and some textiles were lowered in order to reduce the accumulating stocks. Whether these measures will be just enough to boost the economy or whether they may create some inflationary pressures is something to be seen in the next few months. Increased agri- cultural production and the existence of excess capacity in industry suggest that some room exists for expansionary policies. 30. The agricultural crop in 1968 appears to have been better than the previous year. Maize production was better than the previous year; wheat reached close to its former high level and rice production continued to in- crease sharply. The Government is concerned with the decline in area under cotton cultivation despite the fact that there are penalties for farmers who do not cultivate cotton in designated areas. In January 1969 the Government announced increases in cotton prices for the next crop in addition to efforts to control the cost of inputs, hoping that this will encourage farmers to cultivate more cotton. 31. One of the encouraging developments is in the oil sector. This year oil imports are expected to decline from FE 29 million to BE 18 million, while exports are increasing from LE 7 million to about LE 13 million. As a result, the oil balance of payments is expected to show a net deficit of about LE 4 million in 1969 compared with a net deficit of LE 22 million in 1968. Significant production increases are also expected in all industrial sectors except fertilizers, where a decline is expected largely due to the damage to the Suez factory. 32. Indications are that exports in 1969 will probably surpass the 1967 level. Imports continued to decline in the period July/December 1968, but with increasing investment and increasing industriaL output, import demand may revive as well. In the previous two years, niost of the decline in imports was a result of the decline in investment expenditure, and lower unit prices for imported foodstuffs and for some intermediate commodities. Improvements in the allocation of foreign exchange have made the distribution of imports more efficient. III. POPULATION, MANPOWER AND EDUCATION Population 33. The population of the UAR is growing at approximately 2.8 percent annually 1/. In 1968 it had reached 32.1 million and official forecasts esti- mate 37.8 million by 1975. Egypt is still in a stage where mortality is de- clining while fertility is doing so only slowly in response to modernization in general or to population planning efforts in particular. 34. The problem in Egypt, as in many other countries, is not only one of a rapid population increase. It is aggravated by severe limitations of cultivable land, by the present age composition and by uneven geographical distribution. ri'l1e 1960 census and 1966 micro census show that about 45 per- cent of the population is younger than 15, and 3.5 percent is older than 64. This means that for each 100 persons in the labor force age range (15 to 64) there are about 97 persons not normally expected to be economically active, This ratio is very high by any standard. Population density is also very high and has increased by 55 percent over the past 20 years to 2,189 per square mile of inhabitable land, nearly three times the populat:ion density in Japan. 35. Another characteristic of the Egyptian population problem is the high level of urbanization and the rate of urban growth. This iintensive urbanization is accompanied by very high and increasing rates of unemploy- ment in the urban areas, as is discussed below, while seasonal :Labor short-- ages occur in the countryside, where the need for such labor, often per- formed by children, discourages an effective family planning program in the rural areas. The percentage of the population living in urban areas increased from 37 percent in 1960 to 40 percent in 1966 and at the present; growth rate of 5 percent is expected to increase to 42.5 percent by 1970. 36. The Government's awareness of the seriousness of the population problem became apparent in 1962 when the President announced the need for a population policy. After the cabinet change in 1965 the new government declared its intention to establish a national program for family planning., A Secretariat for family planning was vested with all the necessary powers but an effective program could not be started. At the present time the family planning activities are carried out by the Government as well as somle voluntary organizations. Governmental activity is carried out mlostly on a part-time basis by 2,700 health centers distributed over the coumtry. The program is hampered by organizational deficiencies as well as the budgetary constraints. In January 1969 a team of experts visited the country to pre-- pare the basis for a project to be submitted to the UNDP. 1/ Population and rmnpower statistics of the UAR lack consistency in soire respects. For iastance the 3.2 percent increase3 in the population of working age (see paragraph 37) while total population increase is 2.8 percent could not be easiLy explained. Consequently figures of unemployment may be higher th;wa actual unemployment. -9- Manpower 37. Manpower development between 1961 and 1968 is characterized by a relatively high growth of the population of working age (3.2 percent annu- ally) andl in the labor force generally (3.4 percent anntally), against a comparatively slow increase in aggregate employment (2.5 annually) and little change in the employment structure by economic sectors and by occu- pations. Unemployment increased from 6.2 percent of the labor force in 1961 to 8.9 percent in 1967 (amounting to 750,000 unemployed). Estimates based on official data indicate a rise to 11.5 percent ior 1968 (about 1 million unemployed), corresponding to an annual rate of increase in un- employment as high as 13 percent. In the period under consideration labor productivity has not increased largely because of the inmobility of labor and industrialization has not proceeded fast enough to create significant new employment. Agriculture continues to account for more than 50 percent of employment while mining and industry account only for 14 percent. Employ- ment was growing in mining and industry at a rate of over 10 percent between 1961 and 1965 while the increase in services sector was only about 3 percent. This trend changed afterwards with the slowdown in investment and industrial activity in general. Between 1965 and 1968, employment in sectors other than agriculture fell by 2.5 percent per year and total productive sector employ- ment rose by only 0.3 percent annually, compared to 3 percent during the preceeding four years. The services sector, on the other hand, increased by almost 5 percent per year. Annual growth of overall employment decreased from 3 percent to about 2 percent. The shift towards services is partly due to the policy of guaranteeing employment to every higher education graduate. A resulting increase in underemployment is gradually being recognized as an undesirable situation. 38. This overall picture is reflected in the development of wages. The total wage bill (in current prices) increased almost four times as fast as total employment, whereas GDP per employed person grew only about twice as fast. Since these data reflect current prices only, real wages are likely to have improved less, as is the case with productivity (in terms of real GDP per employed) between 1961 and 1968. The sectoral distribution of wages shows that the services sectors account for 60 percent in 1968 (58 percent in 1965) with Government services generating 40 percent of wage income (about 38 percent in 1965). In 1966 and again in 1967 salaries in government services were cut, but these cuts did not decrease the relative importance of government services in the total wage income. The share of non-agricultural commodity sectors in the total wage bill decreased from about 23.5 percent in 1965 to just 20 percent in 1968. Mhanges over the entire period 1961-68 have been slow both for each commodity sector and for the modern sector as a whole (from 19 percent to 20 percent). 39. The labor market operates under a system of regulated wages. The allocation of manpower resources theoretically takes pla e through a plan- ning mechanism which links the supply (and, therefore, p:roduction) of man- power to needs specified as to time, occupation, educational level, sector and branch of economy, and region. In fact, full employnent rather than effective manpower utilization has been the policy since 1961. Under the - l() - pressure of the rapidly increasing school output from all levels of the educational system, actual employment; policies contain a social welfare element instead of an emphasis on economically efficient deployment and utilization of manpower. The labor market effects of these policies are aggravated by the malfunctioning of occupational guidance in schools and universities and of the government-controlled placement services. 4o. These policies tend to aggravate distortions in the occupational, and also the sectoral employment structures. Furthermore, disguised un- employment is widespread, with effects on economic and organizational effi- ciency and growth possibilities difficult to assess. 41. The problem is one of attaining quality and appropr:Late occupa- tional (and regional, i.e., urban versus rural) balances. Recently initiated programs are concentrating upon imp:roving the relevancy of varicus types of education to occupational requirements, which constitutes the major portion. of the problem. 42. According to the Ministry oiDf Planning there are marked surpluses of University graduates and of gradluates from academically oriented secon- dary schools alongside large shortages of technicians and skilled workers. Trhe shortage of technicians is expected to grow during the 10 years between 1966 and 1975 by six times (from 24,000 to 144,000), and by 10 times in 1985. Since this occupational group perforus a vital function in the eLpplication of modern, growth generating techniiques in production and organization, the shortage is particularly critical. 43. In the UAR, as in other countries facing a similar situation, the solution is primarily sought in the provision of more training facilites. But the traditional aversion of secondary school and university leavers agEinst manual work is diminishing only very slowly. In fact, enrollment developme.nts suggest that strong pressure persists to attain social status through joining the privileged group of white-collar workers. The small enrollment shift to- wards technically oriented subjects may be misleading in as much as a high percentage of graduates in these subjects are said to take up non-manual em- ployment. The comparatively high average annual wages in the service sector further this tendency. In addition, salary scales and career possibilities in Government employment are strictly tied to formal educational attainment. The nationalized industries as well as the rest of the public sector by and large follow this example. Technically trained people are paid insuflficiently in comparison to white collar jobs and this results in an imbalance in the labor force. 44. The Government is becoming increasingly aware of the wastefulness of existing mechan:isms for training and allocating manpower. Thus, the institute of National Planning is undertaking studies to provide better factual bases for policy decisions. Wages for graduates from Technical Training Centers, a new type of secondary school, have been increased to a competitive level. - ii - Education 45. The expansion of the educational system of the UAR, although largely unresponsive to nation's manpower needs, has nevertheless been quite sizeable. Enrollments in Government-operated priimary schools increased by 33 percent from 2.6 million in 1961 to almost 3.5 miLlion in 1968 at an annual rate of 4.2 percent. Data on enrollment as a percentage at the re- levant age group were not available, but since the increase in enrollment was considerably higher than the population increase in approximately the same age group enrollment ratios are known to have increased. Sacondary education enrollments (including technical schools) doubled durin,g this period, cor- responding to an annual growth rate of 10.9 percent, weLl above the 2.6 percent annual in the relevant age group. Enrollments in Higher Institutes and Universities increased by 11.1 percent annually with 5.3 percent annual growth of the relevant age group. These respectable achievements, however, cannot conceal the difficulties which result from high illiteracy (approxi- mately 65 percent of total population) and rapidly growing individual demand for education, while absorptive capacity of the labor market increased only very slowly. The traditional structure of the educational system, together with inadequate curricula and equipment, add to the difficulties. 46. Since 1966 a number of measures have been taken which may well become the first steps towards basic reforms. Secondarr teacher training was transferred to the Universities in 1967. Lower secondary technical schools are being converted to general secondary schools to provide all secondary school pupils with a broad base of common knowledge. A-t the same time, tech- nical training centers, a new type of secondary school, were introduced to provide technically oriented education in two different courses; a five-year course starting after lower secondary education, and, a two-year course fol- lowing upper secondary (general or technical) education. Both courses extend beyond secondary level and overlap with third level institutions. Graduation is at the higher technician level. This new structure is a direct response to the manpower situation described above. It is aimed at diminishing the pressure on universities and higher institutes without :restricting total en- rollments, and at alleviating the shortage of technicians without neglecting aspirations for social status. Thus, starting salaries (LE 18 per month) for graduates from technical training centers are almost as high as those of third level institution graduates (LE 20 per month). 47. Parallel with, and complementing these steps, third-level insti- tution admission standards were raised. Furthermore, annual intake figures for each field of study are now being based on manpower targets in consul- tations between the Ministry of Planning and the Counci:L for Higher Education. 48. The effect of these measures can be seen from the rapid change of the pattern of first year enrollments. Higher institutes and university enrollments totalled about 35,000 in 1966 and decreased to 27,000, one year later, when the new scheme was started. During the same period secondary technical first year enrollments increased by 11,000, almost three times as much as in the preceeding years. Within the third leveL, the pattern has changed in favor of technical subjects. - 12 - 49. The Goverrment is beginningl to rationalize education development by trying to link it to realistic economic development targets. 'The Minis- terial Manpower Committee (coordinaAing policies of the Ministries of Plan- ning, Labor, Education, Higher Education, and Scientific Research, in colls.-- boration with the Central Agency for Statistics and Mobilization) is now setting guidelines for all parts of the educational system. Meaesures are being considered to put employment policies on a more realistic basis. Also, in the course of the preparation of the third five-year plan, educational and manpower planning is being integrated into the decision process of the Government. Thus, although it is difficult to say to what extent this new approach will be complemented by necessary reforms of curricula and teaching concepts, the bases for consistent development policies ia the mianpower- education field are emerging. IV. AGRICULTURE Characteristics of the Agriculture 50. The climate of the UAR is dry and warm. Its agricultuire is almost totally dependent on irrigation. 1/ Farming is limited mainly *bo the valley and delta of the Nile River and encompasses less than 4 percent of the nation's area of 386,000 square miles. Exploitation is labor-intensive and the average piece of land is croppedi about 1.6 times a year. Modern inputs and improved practices are in general use. Field crops accounted for 57 percent of the gross output of the sector in 1966; fruits and vegetables, 16 percent; and livestock and poultry the remainder. Farms are generally small, with a median size of less than five feddans. About half of the cultivated area is under tenancy. Rental terms are controlled, following a series of reforms in land tenure begun in 1952. 51. The soils of about one-third of the cultivated area are "good" in terms of productive capacity. The remainder are of "medium" or "weak" quality, likely to benefit greatly from improved drainage, sub-soiling and calcium sulphate. The need for draiLnage is acute in many areas. 52. The agricultural sector provides over half of the nation's jobs, one-quarter of the GNP, and four-f:.±'ths of the exports. Cotton in its raw and processed form accounts for 60 percent or more of the latter. Onions are also important exports, and rice has been moving upward recently. Wheat, wheat flour, tobacco, and tallow are important on the import list. 1/ Rainfall averages 150 millimeters (5.9 inches) a year along the Mediter- ranean coast. This is concentrated in the winter months, October to February. As one moves South, the rainfall decreases to 25 millimete-rs in an average year. In some years in some areas, rainfall is zero.0 The mean daily temperature in the south near Sudan ranges from about 15 C (59 F) in January to 32 0 (900F) in June. As one moves Borth, these figures fall to about 12 0C on the coast in January to 26 C in July. - 13 - 53. Agriculture has been drawing a significant voLume of investment funds since the High Aswan Dam was begun in 1960. In some years, this volume has reached close to 20 percent of the total natLonal investment outlay. However, industrial development has been the primary area of public interest during this period. 54. Agriculture is under far-reaching Government control. Farmers are assigned target acreages for major crops. The kinds andl amounts of farm in- puts supplied to farmers are determined by the authorities, and their mer- chtndising is a public monopoly. The more important of the input and product prices are set by the Government, with the needs both for revenue and foreign exchange ranking high as determinants. Public credit moves through quasi- public cooperatives t,o farmers in amounts and o.i terms publicly determined. Irrigation water is publicly managed and free 1/ to farmers. Withal, most of the agricultural land is in private hands and, agriculture can be considered to be under private management. 55. As noted above, one important feature of the agricultural devel- opement problem is the rapid growth in population in the order of 2.8 per- cent per year, and in 1968 it was estimated at 32.1 million. This affects both the demand for farm products and the supply of farm labor. Although urban growth rates are sharply in excess of rural, the absolute number of people classed as "rural" continues upward (from 16.2 million in 1960 to 18.1 million in 1966). The rural population made up 60 percent of the total in 1966, as compared to 67 in 1947. Output 56. Estimates of GDP suggest that agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of slightly more than 3 percent in the decade from 1959, but very little or not at all since 1965. Crops continue to dominate output (accounting for 73 percent of the total in 1965), but livestock is tending to become relatively more important. The cropping pattern continues to be built around cotton, with production having reached as high as 521,000 MT of lint in 1965. Cotton output averaged 433,000 M,T in 1966/68. Area under wheat averaged 1.6 million feddans in 1940/44. In spite of the Government's emphasis on wheat, this latter acreage level has not been attained recently (1.3 million feddans in 1966/68). Wheat production averaxged 1.5 million tons in 1960/62, the same as in 1968. Both maize and rice production have gone up notably of late. In 1968 rice output was 23 percent and maize 19 percent above the 1962/64 average. Part of the expansion in maize is because of higher yields resulting from the increasing use of hybrid seed and the sharp shift from the nili (short season) plantings to full-fledlged summer status. More and more land has been put to fruits and vegetables,, Per capita con- sumption of vegetables in 1966 was 2! times that of 1951, and of fruits, 1-1/2 times. 1/ The exception is that a nominal sum is charged if water is pumped. - 14 -- 57. Aside from rice, the outp11t trends of late have not affected the level or composition of foreign tradel very much. Animal products continue to be heavy consumers of foreign exchange. A main import is live cattle from the Sudan. Fats and oils are also in increasing deficit. Another significant import item is tobacco. Imports of wheat and wheat flour have been going up, totalling LE 80 million in 1968. These are by far the largest items on the farm. import list. On the export side, rice exoorts totalled almost LE 40 million in 1968, close to double the figure of I1E 21 million which was attained in 1965 and 1966. The comparable tonnage figures were 527,000; 365,000; and 354,000. Nonetheless, rice exports hav,e e. long way to go to become as important as unprocessed cotton, even thoulgh the latter (at iE lO million in 1968 and LE 123 in 1967) is running well below the figure of a decade or more ago (for example, LE 132 million in 1953). Yields and Technical Change 58. Egyptian farmers produce respectable yields per acre although they are said to vary a good deal by region, by year, and by faIm. Still higher yield targets appear possible if the developed agricultu-es are taken as models. In the period 1960/64, the UAR yields compared to those of se- lected high-yielding countries as follows: Wheat 59% of the Netherlands 66% of the U.K. 82% of New Zealand Fice (Paddy) 84% of Spain 85% of Australia 102% of Japan Cotton (fiber) 109% of U.S.A. 109% of Peru Corn 63% of U.S.A. 52% of New Zealand 59. The overwhelmingly striking feature of Egyptian agriculture in the 1960's is the stagnation in yields per acre (See Annex Table 33). It appeairs that important crops such as rice, sugarcane, sesame, barley and flax are in a yield downtrend. 'Maize and mille!t are doing rather better 1/. 60. The imfavorable trends in yields may be for several reasons. Onie possibility is a rise in the water table and a consequent increase in soil salinity. Another is the bringing into use of new land which requires timle to reach acceptable yield levels. But this may not be very important as the l/ A possible target for maize can be drawn from the experience of the developed countries. For exanple, at 1.6 percent compound the growth rate in the UAR yield of maize per acre is about one third that of the U.S. - 15 - cropped area in 1965 was less thaw in 1960, and in 1967, it was only one per- cent greater than that of 1960. A third source of deterioration in yield levels may possibly be a slowdown in the rate of modernization of the agri- cultural sector particularly in areas where drainage is worsening, and es- pecially in the more recent years. However this possibility is not fully apparent from the available data, a review of which follows. 61. For many years farmers have drawn heavily on purchased inputs. Hoiever, the recent trend is not notably upward. The outlay for inputs in agrLculture was LE 190 million in 1965, and LE 208 in 1967. The former figure is equivalent to 24 percent of the value of agriculture output; the latter, 23 percent. The major outlay is for fertilizers. In terms of gross tonnage, it has been estimated that farmers used 121 percent more fertilizers in 1967 than in 1952. Nitrogen consumption averaged 136,000 tons in 1955-69 period as against 313,000 tons in 1967. Phosphate and potash showed comparable increases. However, rates of use and the nutrient balance can perhaps be improved, especially in areas where the drainage constraint is removed. 62. Comparable data on other modern inputs are not readily available. One estimate puts the consumption of insecticides at 500 tons in 1952 and 15,000 in 1967. Another source shows that 11,000 tons o! chemical pesticides were used in 1960 and 20,000 tons in 1966. Some 336,000 tons of improved seed were used in 1952, as compared to 1,614,000 tons in 1967. Mechanization is another major input. The number of tractors approximated 10,900 in 1959 and has been estimated at about 18,000 in 1967. About 70-80 percent of these units are privately owned. Farmland and Labor 63. Both cultivated area and the amount of labor in use in agriculture have continued to increase in recent years. Cultivated area reached 6.5 million feddans in 1966, up 10 percent from the figure of 1946 and 23 percent from the 1937 level. The cropped area adjusted for the number of crops taken from the average acre per year has expanded from 9.31 million feddans in 1952 to 10.37 in 1960 and 10.46 in 1967 1/. 64. The rural population continues to grow in absoLute terms, although as a percent of total population it has been falling. The rural total was estimated at 18.1 million in 1966, sharply above the figure of 11.5 in 1937. Similarly, the labor force in agriculture has been growing in absolute terms, but falling as a percent of the total national labor force. The available data show 3.6 million as employed in agriculture in 1961, equivalent to 55 1/ This is an unsatisfactory measure of the intensity of land use, because it reflects only the number of crops per year, with each crop carrying the same weight regardless months to maturity. Under this definition, substituting short for long crops, for example, increases the indicated intensity of land use although the opposite may have resulted in fact. - 16 - percent of the national total. This latter figure seems to heLve fallen by close to one percent per year through 1968 when the absolute figure was 3.9 million and the percent was 51. 65. The number of rural people per feddan of cultivated and cropped area has been increasing. However, discussions on land-labor relationships mean little unless possible changes in quality in each of these factors through the years are taken into account. For example, illiteracy is espe- cially high in rural areas, but decLining, therefore making it probable that the average quality of the human agent in agriculture is higher now than a decade ago. Similarly, new areas are being brought into use as farmland each year. Their production capacity bu:iLds up slowly. And as build-up occurs, land elsewhere may be deteriorating in quality because of a rising water table, impeded drainage, increasing salinity or other reasons. The intensity of use of both old and new land may also vary from year to year. Income 66. Farmers at the lover end cDf the income scale are better off now than perhaps ever before. This is not because the per capita eEarnings of the sector have been increasing rapidly, but rather because the land reform program begun in 1952 transferred a significant volume of assets and income to small farmers. Since 1952 about 760,000 feddans of farmland (some 12 percent of the national total) have been taken from landowners holding more than 100 feddans and distributed to 300,000 rural families for a nominal payment. This land now changes hands in the free market at IE 700 to TE 1,000 per feddan. Land rents have been fixed at a maximum of sesven times the land tax (at its 1949 level). This cut rent by 33-50 percent as of the time of the decree, and it has continued downward in real terms since that time. About one-half of the cultivated area is in tenancy tcday and there are some 700,000 tenant families. T'hese now receive written three-year leases under terms which make eviction highly improbable. 67. Another feature of the ircome trend in agriculture is that wholesale prices of food have been trending uLpward relative to other prices in general. Although this movement is less prominent for prices received by farmers, it remains true that the shift in relative prices is producing income improve- ment for people on the land. Farmers are also favored by real estate taxes. These have not moved upward at a rate at all close to that of' the real value of property. Part of the declining burden of real estate taxation has been offset by the increased rates of defense tax. 68. As a part of incomes pol:icy, Egypt has chosen to use its agri- cultural resources and its capacitir to import to improve dietary levels. The tendency in both the caloric and1 protein supply per person per day has been upward: Unit 1950-51 1955-56 1965-66 Protein (vegetable) Gram 55 77 80 (animal) Gram 13 15 12 Calories Calorie 2,336 2,590 2,813 - 17 - Authorities on nutrition characterize present total food supplies as suffi- cient to cover the caloric and protein requirements of the nation, although distribution problems may persist. From the point of view of the quality of diet, they point out that cereals provide too high a portion of the intake of calories and protein, as well as of most minerals and vitamins. Public Investment 69. Agriculture, irrigation and drainage have beea allotted close to one-fifth of total public investment in recent years. 'rhe figures are: 1964-65 1966-67 LE Million at Current Prices Agriculture 28.0 29.6 Irrigation and Drainage 37.4 34.0 High Dam 18.6 16.5 Total 84.0 80.1 Total above as percent of all public Investment 19 18 These data would change but little if private investment in agriculture were added. The latter is estimated at only LE 5 millic,n in 1965 and 1E 2 million in 1967. 70. Public outlays in agriculture more than doubled between 1961 and 1966. But in 1968 they were only 75 percent of the peak year of 1966. Area- increasing (reclamation) activities suffered less than did crop-livestock and irrigation-drainage from this budget cutback. Research and Extension 71. Research has always been a primary task of the Ministry of Agri- culture. In fact, before the revolution of 1952, the Ministry did little else but research. It now works at 174 sites in seven research departments: soils, field crops, horticulture, plant protection, animal production, veterinary, and agricultural economics and statistics. The staff in 1968 included 1784 university graduates, and the budget was LE 3.25 million. 72. Cotton has absorbed much of the research effort and varieties have been under continuing improvement. More attention is now being given to other crops. For example, production practices have been developed which will double the existing national average yield of maize on good soils, even if only open-pollinated stock is used. Similarly, rice .ields have been sharply increased by using varieties such as Giza 159 adapted to local con- ditions. This type of work is fundamental to progress in agriculture, and it becomes doubly important where increasing output by iniereasing the land supply is costly, as in the UAR. It is doubtful if the IJAR is doing nearly enough technical research in agriculture (including animal husbandry), given the high returns to improving techniques in agriculture and the relative scarcity of high yielding opportunities in other areas. - 18 - 73. The same is probably true of the Government's effort to expand the use of modern inputs and improved cultivation practices. This is the spec:ific task of the extension service. The under-utilized potential in extension is only now becoming apparent. Recent experience suggests that intensive ex- tension can increase yields significantly. A new extension approach was begun in 1967 in 31 of the less productive villages and involved a total cropped area of 9,800 feddans. In 1968, the intensive program covered 43,000 feddans and 154 villages. In 141 of these villages, the effort centered on one crop, usually corn, cotton or rice. The remaining villages were classified as multi-purpose, and the program aimed at improving farming nractices in general and in finding new outlets for labor. The 1969 program has been expanded still further, and the target is to add 90,000 feddans per year until about 900,000 feddans are under intensive extension at all times. 74. The program increases the supply of guidance and modern inputs to the selected villages. The enlarged staff undertakes to assure that appro- priate farming supplies are always available and that all farmers do the right things at the right time -- sowing, fertilization, spraying, and so on. Ia 1968 the program raised the yield cf' corn from 9.7 to 18.6 arde'D per feddaEn in the village of Zohra (Beihaira) in 1968. Results elsewhere were comparable. Nonetheless these are illustrative data and more refined measurements are de- sirable. To get comparable results over much larger areas may 'be more diffi- cult. It is also important to note that Egypt, unlike many counatries, is free from a trained personnel constraint in expanding its extension and supporting services to farmers. For example, nearly 5000 specialists in agriculture and veterinary medicine graduated in 1964. (This indicates that outlays for agricultural education may be too high, particularly for the upper levels.) This capacity to expand extension work should be more fully e!xploited. Credit 75. The farm credit system is operated by the General Organization of Agricultural and Cooperative Credit. The volume of credit in agriculture has been expanding rapidly. In 1957, f'armers borrowed LE 20 million; in 1967 it reached a total of LE 87 million. The system operates through the agricultural cooperatives in each village, although organizationally independent of themn. Both the Cooperative organization an;d the Credit organization report to th,e Minister of Agriculture. An increasing proportion of credit is in kind, and in 1967 this was about two-thirds cf' the total. The system is financed by advances from commercial banks and the Central Bank and subsidies in a signif- icant degree are involved. About 5t5 percent of the credit is on short tern. Two of the major problems are delirLcuencies and accounting. No data were mnade available to the mission on arrears but the need to improve collections is widely recognized. Prices and Costs 76. The prices of major items bought and sold by farmers are largely determined and administered by the G1overnment, subject to such ultimate constraints as the balance of payments and income and incentive effects. However, it has proven difficult to discover the agricultural price struc- ture necessary to produce the desired resource allocation andL simultaneously - 19 - fulfill other public objectives. Supplemental means of resource management have been installed. For example, a scheme of crop rotations laid out on the basis of large blocks made-up of plots from many farms, combined with annually established acreage allotments for the three main crops (cotton, rice and wheat) has been installed. Another scheme involves the sale of all the cotton and parts of the rice, sesame, peanuts, onions, garlic, lentils, wheat crops to the Government at prescribed prices. This system gives the Government a main source of revenue. 77. In addition to using prices as a substitute for (or complement of) taxes, the Government tries also to keep the price of staple items at a low and stable level for consumers. This "social" objective in pricing is also apparent on the input side. There is no charge for irrigation water as such, and until recently agricultural production credit was interest free. 78. The effects of this multi-faceted pricing structure on resource use and output in agriculture is not clear. Farmers have not been paying directly for some valuable things (water); and they perhaps have been receiv- ing too little for other things (rice) and too much for still others (wheat). As noted above in a different context, farm products have tended to become more valuable relative to non-farm products in recent years, in terms of wholesale prices. The wholesale price index for industrial products and materials moved up from 429 to 497 (1939 = 100) in the period 1951 through July 1968 (Table 56). One of its components of great interest to farmers -- fertilizers -- actually fell in this period. Meanwhile, prices of foodstuffs as a group rose much more sharply, from 335 to 538 in the 17-year period end- ing in July 1968. 79. However, it should not be automatically assumed that prices received by farmers move up at a rate comparable with the wholesale price level for foodstuffs. The state is an important intermediary between food producer and consumer and subsidies, penalties, rationing and multiple pricing have been used as policy instruments to a large extent. Farm product prices at point of first sale have moved up as follows: Prices Received by Farmers % Av. 1957-60 1967 Increase Piasters per Kilogram Wheat 2.5 3.7 48 Maize 2.4 3.7 54 Rice (Paddy) 1.9 3.0 58 Sugarcane 0.23 0.27 17 Beans 4.3 5.4 26 80. The major price movement in production requisites has been in labor. A daily rate of P.T. 25 is not uncommon today. rhis is close to double the effective rate of a few years ago. A summary of available price data on other items entering production costs is in Table 58. The extent to which public funds have been drawn upon in creating and sustaining the price level of things farmers buy is not known. However, some evidence is available about the cost of stabilizing the prices of things farmers sell. - 20) - 81. 'The agency charged with assuring supplies and stabilizing prices of staple foods lost about iE 3.5 mi:Llion in 1967 and LE 5.8 million in 1968, leaving aside certain administrative charges. The main items on which cash income exceeds outgo are sugar and tea. Although a ration of sugar is made available to all at a subsidized pri:ce, additional quantities are offered a,t a much higher (and profitable) price. Quality tea is considered a luxury item and annual returns to the Treasury are around US $16 million. Wheat and wheat flour are important contributors to public losses, and in 1968 losses in these products reached ove,r US $54 million. 82. The stabilization agency maintains a substantial inventory of staple food items (Table 60) and this, along with access to the Treasury, has enabled it to exert a significant price stabilization effect. The selling prices of the agency have changed but little since mid-L965. 83. Overall, it is difficult to pass Judgment on the effect of these price and cost controls on the efficiency of resource allocation in agri- culture and on income distribution. A first step would be to establislh ope- rational criteria to serve as the basis for appraisal. Marketing 84. Marketing arrangements in, agriculture are an essential complement to the pricing system. The farmer deals mainly with Government or quasi- Government agencies in procuring his farm supplies and marketing his pro- duct. His main point of contact is the village cooperative. This agency anticipates his input requirements and makes arrangements with the Credit Organization and other public agencies for supplies, delivery, storage and finance. Alternative sources of materials are not readily available to farmers except as they exchange among themselves. 85. On the product side, the first step toward co-operative marketing was begun with cotton in land reformL areas in 1953. It has since been ex- tended to include rice and certain other crops. These products are delivered by farmers to the village cooperatives or some other designated agent of the responsible Government agency (ind:ixridual quotas are assigned at times). They then move through the processing anld distribution chain to domestic consumers or foreign markets under Governmenl; ownership, supervision or control. 86. The apparent intent of the Government is to develop an agricultural cooperative system able to handle all marketing tasks on both the product and input side. To date, however, much farm produce moves through private channels, albeit under an inclusive set of price and other controls enforce- able by the State. For example, tq'e local (district and village) markets are either owned and managed by the Government or licensed by it. 87. The volume of business dDne by each of the public marketing organizations is by no means insignificant. But evidence on their effective- ness and efficiency is scarce. It is unlikely that the system would itself rapidly identify or cure its deficiencies, as it does not automatically pro- duce pressures to release resources or upgrade technology or accumulate for - 21 - investment. However important its shortcomings may turn out to be, it is clear that the agricultural marketing system has undergone profound changes since the revolution of 1952. Planning and Coordination 88. Agriculture fell somewhat short of target during the first plan 1961/65. The value added in agriculture rose by 3.3 percent per annum against the planned rate of 5.1 percent; employment in agriculture grew at a 3.3 percent rate against the planned rate of 3.2 percent; and investment in agriculture, irrigation and drainage made up 17 percent of total national investment as against a planned figure of 19 percent. In effect, both in- vestment and expectations concerning the agricultural sector have been on an annual basis since the mid-1960s and neither has been formalized as a part of a national plan or as an integrated sector scheme. 89. It appears possible that investment in agriculture since 1965 would have been higher and of a different composition if forme.l planning had con- tinued beyond the mid-1960s. Whether this is true or ncot, it will not be easy to resume planning in agriculture and effectively to monitor and coor- dinate the performance of the executive agencies. This is because several agencies are now charged with promoting agriculture and the personnel strength of each has been tending upward. Difficulties of a bureaucratic sort are to be expected in complex structures charged with doing mary big and inter- related jobs and involving many organizations and people. By way of illus- tration, it is worth noting that the 14inistry of Irrigation in December 1968 had a staff of about 54 tLIousand. One result is to make planning the more necessary, both to design resource allocations and to mcnitor performance. 90. One of the important tasks facing the planners today is to project the output and employment capacity of agriculture over the several decades ahead. A primary determinant of this capacity will be the supply of water available for irrigation. Studies of the possibility, the costs and the returns to expanding the water supply through upstream development of the Nile and from other sources, need to be intensified. Data of this sort are essential in designing economic development strategy for the long run. Improving the Agricultural Performance 91. A very determined effort needs to be mounted to reach acceptable levels of growth in the sector. This becomes clear if one projects the sources of gain in agricultural output which are now visible. This pro- jection follows. Its implications for change in agricultural development policy are then explored. 92. The bulk of the effort in agriculture is going into land develop- ment. This program is firmly scheduled, and to falter now would result in forgoing much of the benefit from the heavy investment already made in the new Aswan Dam. The general expectation on new land has been of the following order of magnitude: - 22 - Thousand Feddans Cultivated area -- 1965 6,160 To be reclaimed through 1975 - using High Aswan Dam Water 1,250 - other projects 4oo Cultivated area in 1976 7,810 A nine-year increase of this magnitude in the cultivated area would represent a growth rate approximating that of total population. 1/ 93. However, some adjustments are likely to be made to these expectations as experience unfolds. 'Two examples may be cited. First, to date it has pro- ven costly to find and make available underground water. Second, some of the desert soils of calcareous sand and lacustrine clays are more difficult and costly to manage than was expected. About 656,000 feddans were reclaimed in the period 1960-68 (Table 31). Of these, about 200,000 have been raised to a productivity level at which the value of saleable product covers operating costs. It is planiaed to reclaim an additional 50,000 feddans this year (1969). There will then remiain 564,000 feddans to be reclaimed through 1975 to enalble full utilization of the new Aswan waters. 2/ The total reclaimted area for the period 1960-76 will then total 1.25 million feddans. (This target assuames that a sufficient arsa of soils of sufficient quality to make reclamation eco- nomic can be found. It is generally- believed that this can be done.) 94. Land reclamation under the natural conditions of Egypt is under- standably costly. Including social outlay and a charge of E, 65 for the High Dam (Table 38) average costs have teen running around LE 520 per feddan. The figure varies by ± 20 percent, depending on such factors as soils, topog- raphy and location. 95. Reclamation in other thar.. the above-designated areas (and indepeadent of the expanded water supply from the Nile) has totalled about 83,000 feddans since 1960. As noted, the costs are high and the present evidence suggests that a realistic projection of the rate of growth of production capacity in agriculture will not count on these areas for a substantial contribution in the near term. 3/ Continuing study is in order, however. 1/ Alternative sets of data are available on both intended andi realized activity in land development. However, the differences would not change the conclusions. 2/ This includes the Salhia project. It is hoped to bring more soils of higher quality into the scheme if it becomes possible to bring part of Lace Manzala into the project erea. 3/ The outlook for the longer termi may be different. Reports indicate that an underground water reservoir sufficient to irrigate a million acres for 800 years has been found in nearby Libya. This is being tapped for experimental farming now. - 23 - 96. The second source of increase in production as a result of the Aswan High Dam is the conversion from basin to perenniaL irrigation of about 930,000 feddans in Upper Egypt. This enables multiple cropping. Some 80 percent of this gain has already been achieved, with the remainder to be completed by 1972, mainly through levelling. The gain yet to be re- alized is thus about 130,000 feddans of cropped area pe:r year if one ignores questions of drainage and the probable effect of the lack of it on yields. 97. A third source is the intensified program of drainage now being planned. It is contemplated that a LE 73 million project to drain 1.4 million feddans will begin in 1970, with area drained in that year being 80,000 fed- dans, building up to an annual rate of 240,000 feddans _in 1975. On this sched- ule, as much drainage will be accomplished in the single year of 1975 as during the entire 1960/65 Plan period. If one assumes a yield increase of 25 percent as a result of drainage and a cropping factor of 1.7, this program as of the end of 1975 will have created the equivalent of about 391,000 feddans of cropped area per year. 1/ This will have been at a cos1; of about LE 48 mil- lion (920 thousand feddans times an estimated unit cost of LE 52), with annual operating and maintenance charges of the system expected to be around LE 0.7 per feddan-year. 2/ 98. In terms of cropped area equivalent, these three categories of out- lay will result in an increment of 1.2 million feddans aLs of beginning 1976 in comparison with the end of 1967. This represents an annual compound growth rate for the period 1968-75 of about 1.4 percent. Interesting propositions follow: (1) at the contemplated rate of land development as just described, the rate of growth in farm output will fall below that of popu- lation unless the rate of growth in yields per acre is increased above its recent rate (see paragraph 59), or the cropping pattern is upgraded; (2) the implications of such a fall (relative to population growth) in the farm output growth rate for the balance of payments and the national capacity to invest are serious enough to suggest that development resources should be redeployed to produce a proper combination of more rapid land developsent, more rapid yield growth, and more rapid upgrading of the cropping pattern; 1/ The figure of 25% is slightly higher than the recent IBRD drainage project appraisal group assumes for purposes of making recommendations concerning a loan. This figure does not include the yield effects of the heavier use of modern inputs which is made economic by drainage. 2/ Alternative schemes being put forward show drainage completions on as many as two million feddans by 1975. But whatever may be the target finally settled upon, drainage is widely recognized as a big Job. For example, it has been estimated that to install proper drainage in all of the presently irrigated area would cost LE 300 million. _ 21, (3) if it is unlikely that land development can be Gone any faster than is now contemplated writhout resulting in unacceptably high unit costs, and if rapid shifts in the cropping pattern are un- likely 1/ then the highest,--yielding way to raise far-m output is to increase sharply resources going into promoting improved tech- nology where soil and groiundwater conditons permit. This is the proper course that should be followed. 99. This finding is not inconsistent with more capital investment in agriculture. In fact, the two categories of outlay may be quite complementary. The policy issue of today is really not the simple one of more acres versus, more productive acres -- to be consLdered within an overall sector investment constraint. Rather it is the rate at which both more acres and more produc-- tive acres should be developed. This involves inter-sector comparisons of returns to investment which should be considered within the framework of a detailed development plan. In any case, a prior task is to show that agri-. culture can draw a high yield from more funds if they are spent to expand the use of modern inputs. 100. The rate at which the use of modern inputs can be increased depends on the specific response to teehnology. Data are scarce on this matter. Within the limits imposed by deteriorating drainage conditions, the mission believes that there is substantial scope for raising agricultural production through expanded technical research and development and by means of heavier use of superior inputs and modern cultivation practices. There is evidence that this view is shared by the Government. 101. Few of the reasons typically given in explanation of under-utiliza- tion of modern inputs such as machinery and pesticides apply to Egypt. These include: too little water; too unreliable a water supply; farmers do not know how to use the inputs; the planting materials are not responsive; the extension staff cannot reach farmers; and the credit and input distribution system is already overburdened. The most probable reason why under-utilization persists in Egypt is that input supplies have been linmited; with supplies rationed, un- filled demands have not been apparent. The supply is short because foreign exchange has been scarce, making it difficult to assign enough funds for nieces- sary inputs. This difficulty has been reinforced by the desire to promote domestic production of inputs, already well advanced but still not enough. 102. Water use is another important issue. Evidence on actual versus optimum use levels is not readily available. There is an increasing body of opinion that farmers use much too much, as, for example, during the final stages of the cotton crop. From the farmers' point of view it is a 1/ Because these shifts would ine'v-itably mean more exports and imports, and it is difficult to rapidly expand exports of products such as fruits and vegetables. - 25 - free good, I/ and the relation between irrigation, drainage and crop yields may not always be clearly seen. 103. It may be difficult to improve water use. One reason is that there is no shortage of water at present in relation to the area available to use it. Another reason is that it would be almost impossible to install a system enabling individual water charges to be levied according to offtake unless land holdings were consolidated. The potential gain froni land consolidation is probably very high. In 1950 over 50 percent of the land in farms of 2-10 feddans was made up of three or more plots. The comparable figure for the 10-50 feddan group was 75 percent. Consolidation of land ownership is not now under serious consideration, except by the cooperativre system on an ex- perimental basis. The fact is that consolidation may not; be able to generate much interest because its most obvious effect is popularly seen as one of saving labor rather than promoting technical Drogress in production methods. 104. Crop consolidation rather than land consolidati.on has been tackled in the land reform areas by arranging that contiguous plots, regardless of ownership, be sown to the same crop. Fairly large block<; of land (up to 300 feddans) belonging to many owners were thus brought under the same crop and the same rotation without disturbing ownership rights. "his process begun in Nawag village in Gharbiya Province in 1955, was undertaken in over 90 per- cent of the national cultivated area in 1965. 105. To make it profitable for farmers to use only the economic amount, some type of volumetric control of water use is indicated. As long as indi- vidual accounting is prohibitively costly (because of the land ownership and use pattern and the water distribution system) there is little recourse other than to organize and charge on a group basis. This merits consideration. 2/ 106. Using water and modern inputs to better advanttLge would make it easier to grow crops worth more per unit. It has long been the policy of the Government to shift more and more agricultural resources into the pro- duction of higher-value crops. For example, as long ago as 1957 the Govern- ment asked FAO for technical assistance in fruit and vegetable marketing with the hope that more resources could be put into these high-yielding outlets. 107. Nonetheless, the cropping pattern still contair.s a significant acreage of low-value crops. The typical rotation, now oi' three years, is defended mainly on the grounds that jointly with decrees setting up maximum cotton acreage it is the least-cost way to sustain land productivity. In 1/ Even if paid for through the land tax, as some claim, the amount payable is not dependent on the amount used, nor is a water charge an identifi- able element in the land tax payment. 2/ See Phillip Kirpich and Peter Naylor, Irrigation Under Conditions of Small Land Holdings, Congress of International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, Mexico, 1969. - 26 - turn, the cotton and wheat acreage requirement is seen as promotiIig rLe opti- mum external relationship, both thrctigh the supply of exportable cotton and the level of wheat imports. 1/ 108. Technical and economic circumstances change rapidly and in so doing create the need for continuouz study of alternative cropping patterns. The realized and potential technical, gains in corn of late are vastly greater than in cotton or water bhffalo. The export price of rice and the import price of wheat are likely to be weaker in the next five -ears than in the past five, The upward price pressure on animal proteins for human consumption will be sharper tomorrow than today. Pest control for cotton by labor-intensive methods will be more expensive relative to alternatives ir. the future than it is today. These suggest the need for a continuing adl,astment in the cropping pattern, even as do improvements in drainage anc the creation of certainty in the supply of water fo3 irrigation. 109. Specific recommendations on the cropping pattern ore Lot possible without detailed study. TMis would involve a range of assu±upt.ons on tech- nical coefficients and on foreign andi domestic prices. It ib 4uite conceiv- able that such a study would indicate that there is a place for a relative increase in berseem, corn and pulses to help cut back on imports of animal products. ,-ais would tend to discourrage domestic output of wi.,eat, thereby reinforcing the need to price wheat -to consumers high enough to reflect its real cost and promote shifts to substitutes such as potatoes Wnich do not directly consume foreign exchange. 110. More than foreign exchange is involved, of course. Labor is also important. A high labor-using cropping pattern with minimum seasonality is being sought. Another conside-.ration is crop diversification to spread risk. 111. Little or no research is 'being done on the cropping pattern. This is to be regretted, both because a refined set of technical and economic data can be quickly developed and because the outlook for progress iii agriculture needs to be strengthened by all possible means. Upgrading the cropping pattern may be one way. 112. Movement toward higher-value crops implies several complementary steps. One is an organized effort to discover openings in foreign markets and to design production and marketing accordingly. This is particularly necessary for fruits and vegetables. To be fully effective it may have to be done jointly with other countries which are seeking markets for similar products. 1/ The target is typically not over one-third of the cultivated area in cotton and not less than one-t]hird in wheat. However,, it has not alwEays proven possible to attain these acreages. For example, cotton acreage sank below the desired level in 1968, and higher prices have been an- nounced to induce an upswing in 1969. Wheat is a like case. Although liberally priced, many farmers find berseem more profitable and the pressure to move out of wheat is persistent. - 27 - 113. Another associated step is to move towards a system which permits farm product prices in the domestic market to reflect real costs and the international market. In paragraph 81 it was noted that to hold bread prices stable the Government of Egypt made bread available for the year 1967 at 2E 54 million less than it cost. This over-stimulates demand for bread, thereby absorbing more resources for its production (or importation) than would other- wise be necessary, and hence leaving fewer resources available for higher uses. Conclusions and Proposals 114. Each year the agricultural sector commands more resources of all kinds and increases output; but it shows a highly unsati3factory trend in pro- ductivity. Among other things, this raises questions abDut the level and distribution of investment in agriculture. There is also need to be concerned about the rate of growth in the capacity of agriculture to earn or save for- eign exchange. 115. Any appraisal of the public performance in agrLculture must relate to a target set of objectives. Targets were not specified officially for the recent past nor have they been for the immediate fut'ure. On the produc- tion side, if such targets had been set, and if they had embodied the growth goals of the first plan period (1960/65), they would not have been met unless performance had improved. As to institutions serving ag:riculture, there has been massive change. Its main feature is the enlargemenl; of the public role. Ways of improving effectiveness and efficiency in the agencies serving agri- culture are being sought and debated. This debate needs to be focused and intensified if agriculture is to be fully exploited as a source of economic growth. Basic policy issues also need debate. It is probable that relatively too little has been invested in agriculture, and much too little in certain sub-sectors. Another question concerns the degree to whi.ch the system allows the better farmers to farm better. 116. To improve the performance of the Egyptian agriculture it is necessary to establish the criteria by which performance is to be judged. This is because the decisions left to the farmer are so few. The Egyptian farmer does not have full control over the use to which lie puts his land and labor, nor over the kinds and amounts of inputs he uses. He does not have alternative sources of supply for production materiEls and services nor alternative outlets for his majpr products. Prices ELre not allocation devices in the sense of reflecting scarcities and real costs. Superior farming skills (production, management, marketing) cannot be fully ex- pressed. Those who would innovate cannot. Those who lag are still tenure- secure. The major decision open to the farmer today is how hard to work. Under these circumstances, it is not easy to determine wLether he is doing a good job or how to promote a better one. 117. The saume can be said of the public agencies servicinig agriculture. As with farmers, superior management is not rewarded. Shortcomings in performance are not readily visible, and the only corrective mechanism is the political process. - 28 - 118. With performance thus divorced from penalty and reward, at least to some degree, it is important to introduce criteria which will act conti- nuously as a force to shift resources into higher-yielding uses. This may involve the use of explicit t;argets and monitoring systems. 119. Current effort in agriculture should be geared to increasing yields per acre, in so far as drainage conditions make it economic, and to assuring full utilization of the available water supply. The public decision- making machinery needs to take more cognizance of market developments abroad, and there is dire need for a systeR. of individualized penalties and rewards for farmers and managers. f. closer relationship between the real cost of a thing and the price paid for it by consumers arid farmers needLs to be esta- blished. These judgments imply that the Government needs to consider taking steps of the following illustrative sort: (1) Speed up technical change by (a) making available the foreign exchange required to increase the fertilizer supply by, say, 20 percent and the number of tractors by 25 percent in the year ahead (adjust these percentages for succeeding years in the light of field evidence as to demand); (b) assuring that the effort to produce and distribute improved seed and to extend plant protection cain move forward without financial constraint; (c) expanding the intensive extension program at triple the presently contemplated rate, concen- trating it in the most productive areas, and putting much more emphasis on technical research; (2) Improve resource use and the agricultural credit and cooperative system by (a) promoting t1he construction of adequate warehouse space in each of the village cooperatives; (b) instaLling an effective accounting capacity in the agricultural cooperative and credit structure, beginning at the village; (c) di.recting that the agricultural crelit system and the agricultural cooper- ative system become self-supporting in five years, simultaneously raising interest rates to cooperatives and farmers and making available as much money as can be loaned at the higher rates; (d) developing group responsibility for future delinquencies in credit; and (e) adjusting farm real estate taxes and farm land rents upward with general price increases, and discouraging waste of irrigation water by requiring the farmers to pay for it. (3) Forestall deterioration ad,i enable growth in yields per acre by (a) urgent implementation of the planned drainage p:rogram; (b) sharply expanding this program to the economic level through appropriate means 1/; (c) using the leverage developed. by the 1/ For example, by utilizing staff from abroad on a short-term emergency basis. It is realized that th:Ls course would require adjustments in certain current practices such as conditions of employment and repa- triation of earnings. - 29 - drainage subsidy to promote in areas about to be drained a pro- gram to consolidate landownership, utilizing pe.id village com- mittees and under-employed agricultural graduates as the operat- ing group for this very high-yielding activity, (d) taking appropriate steps 1/ to speed up the soil survey to assure that the areas in greatest need of drainage receive priority attention; (e) exploiting the drainage outlay to the utmost by intensive ex- tension programs in areas being drained. (4) Intensify studies of ways of expanding agriculture by (a) the provision of more water (from the Nile, and groundwater); (b) technical improvements, including drought-resistant crop varieties, and (c) more economic use of water and other resources. V. INDUSTRY 120. Industry has played a leading role in the development strategy of the UAR since 1957, when the first industrialization plan was launched. The share of industry in GDP has risen from less than 10 percent in 1952 to more than 20 percent in 1967. During this period the relative share of industrial output of the traditional industries processing local raw ma- terials (textiles; food) declined as the scope of manufacturing industry widened. This decline will be more noticeable in the next few years if the petroleum industry develops as expected. 121. Since 1965, with the slowing down of general economic growth, excess capacity appeared in many industries, particularly those which were designed to serve the domestic market. A decrease in demand for some con- sumer's goods accompanied the overall slowdown in economic activity. Stocks of a wide range of products which were not marketable abroad nor saleable at home because of their high prices were accumulated. Factories which were already working below capacity because of the shortages of: raw materials and spare parts, and other production difficulties, or in some cases over- investment, in the first place, reduced production. From 1965 to 1968 the percentage of unused capacity in the industrial sector as a whole averaged more than 31 percent. The branches most affected were engineering and metal working industries, motor vehicles, heaters, sewing machines, the electrical and electronics industries, refrigerators, T.V. sets, radios, some chemical industries, soap, plastics, powder, pencils and matches, Eome food industries e.g. soft drinks and some textiles (low quality yarns and finished goods). Prices of some consumers durable goods, namely, wool yarn.,E textiles, re- frigerators, radios and T.V. sets, were reduced last JanuaLry with the very aim of increasing domestic demand, decreasing stocks and e.chieving a fuller utilization of the existing productive capacity. The cuts averaged 30 per- cent. The products covered, however, concerned only a sme.ll fraction of total private consumption and further reductions for other items are under consideration. a/ See footnote on p. 28 - 30- 122. Despite a very close system of control of the financing of industrial investment, whether through direct Government appropriations or through the banking system - main]ly for operational deficits and for short term needs - organizational arrangements do not make it easy for Lhe choice of priorities and the selection of projects to be made systematicaliY in relation to economic criteria. Projects are prepared and submitted b'V the &eneral Organization for the incividual industrial branch to the re- sponsible Minister concerned. Responsibility for individual branches of in+- dustry is divided between some five Ministers. The Minister f'or Industry, Petroleum and Mineral Wealth is but one of the members of the Cabinet re- sponsible for the industrialization policy. Some important branches are under the supervision of the Ministers of Health, Supply and Domestic Trade., Economy and Foreign Trade and War Production. Finally, the Minister of Planning is responsible for putting the industrial policy in the context the development plan of the country. At a lower level, many ent_rprises although similar in function, are attached to different GenersLl Organizatir%as. 123. Because of the already existing diversification of the industrial sector, and the complex interrelaticnships among the different branches, in a system - like the Egyptian - where prices do not represent costs, an effec- tive reorganization can be achiev-. 1 only through a better coordi:nation of decision making. The Government has recognized the need for improvements in organization and nas set up a ministerial committee to study costs and pricing procedures. 124. In addition, other measures are being taken to increases industrial output. Among them is a sharp increase in industrial investment. The in- crease planned for 1969 not only reflects a recovery after the slump result- ing from recent economic stabilization efforts, but also the beginning of a very large investment program at the Helwan steel plant, which with related investments would absorb about 50 percent of the total probable :industrial investment of the country for the coming five years. The renewed growth of induEstrial investment poses again the problem cf investment allocation and project selection. Although the stated policy is aimed at maximizing returns, fostering export oriented industries, and at eliminating bottlenecks, the Helwan Project does not yet appear to have been weighed in the context of the sector as a whole, nor does -the marketability of production from this plant seem to have been fully analyzed. Petroleum 125. Oil is the most important mineral resource of the UAR. The annual output of crude oil rose from 2.3 million tons in 1953 to 5.7 mil- lion tons in the fiscal year 1968, despite the loss of Sinai oilfields which - before the 1967 war - accounted for about 80 percent of total pro- duction. New discoveries and developments are expected to result, in fur- ther doubling of production by 1969. The UAIR expects to become EL net ex- porter of crude oil in 1970. 126. Egyptian oil policy seems to be sound, and its management imagin- ative and businesslike. Several additional areas were recently opened for concessimDn and all the major international oil companies have been invited - 31 - to bid. A few foreign companies, namely ENI,' Pan American and Philips, already operate in the UAR on the basis of partnership agreements, whereby Egyptian and foreign interests undertake joint operations in case of com- mercial discoveries and Government proceeds consist of the national share (50 percent) and of 50 percent of the profits of the foreign partner. For the future, however, despite the successful working out of these partner- ship agreements, the UAR has announced that any form of arrangement which is maost beneficial to the country would be considered in order to attract more interest. 127, The recent developments in oil production are in the Western Desert (Al Alamain and Mamor al-Jimal) and at the Red Sea (El Morgan off- shore and Amin, Shukheir and Ummal Usr, on-shore). Natural gas was found in commercial quantities at Abu Madi in 1967, and more recently, at Al Westani, both in the Nile Delta. The crude oil in the Western Desert and in the Red Sea region has a higher quality than that of Sinai. I8s API degree is, in certain cases, very similar to that of Libyian oil (42 API). It is also located very close to refining facilities. Proved reserves indicate that crude output could exceed 35 million tons in 1975, more than a 5-fold in- crease over the 1965/68 average. By 1975 total exports are expected to be almost 9 times the 1965/68 average. 128. Before the June war, refining capacity (9 million tons per year) was planned to be expanded rapidly with the doubling of the Mex refinery at Alexandria, and 70 percent and 50 percent increases for the El Masr and Suez Oil refineries, both near Suez. These last two plants have been seriously damaged and in 1968, the amount of petroleum processed ia the UAR was only 5 million tons as compared to the 8 million tons in the previous fiscal year. An arrangement was made with the refinery at Aden to proaess there some crude oil from El Morgan oil field. It is expected that by 1975 the production of petroleum products will amount to nearly 10 million tons. 129. A pipeline to supplement Canal transit is bein,3 planned to extend from Suez to the Mediterranean Sea. The line, with a planned capacity of one million barrels per day may cost ir.120 -- 150 million. A system of contractor's financing is envisaged. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 1970. 130. Petrochemical developments are still in the planning stage. Several specific projects are being considered. The project at the most advanced stage of preparation is a plant to produce polyethylene (20,000 tons a year), polyvinyl (20,000 tons a year) and plastic:ized PVC (18,000 tons a year). Production would be mainly for domestic consumption with exports primarily to Arab and African countries. Chemicals 131. The Chemical industry is well developed. Apart from the main branches (fertilizers), great emphasis is given to expansion, renewal andi improvements in gLass, paper, ;;lastic, tyres and basic gim industries. 32 - 132. Egypt produces both nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers, about 160,000 tons N and 260,000 15 percen- P20 tons a year respectively, whiie consumption is about 250,000 tons i and 380,000 15 percent P 0- tons; t-is- 25~ coveries of oil and natural gas and extension and rehabilitation of nhospha±te rock production offer good prospects for growth of productioni .,t only to cover domestic requirements but also for export. The main proje -- under execution concern calcium ammonium nitrate (200,000 tons, 20.5 percent) at Helwan and superphosphate (200,000 tons, 18 percent P 2 ) at Assiut. De - spite the virtual self-sufficiency i: phosphorous fertilizers achieved in 1966, the rationale for expanding superphosphate production lies in the efforts to promote consumption up to more than 700,000 tons of fertilizer. 'fextiles 133. The industry dates back to tAe 1920's and in 1968 accounted for about 32 percent (including both public and private activities) of the value of industrial production. It consumes one-third of domest.c raw cotton production, mainly ashmuni, and although ,bout 80 percent of its output is consumed domestically, it is a major expoxt industry. Cotton yarn and textiles comprise about 70 percent of total 'extile production. The UAR also makes jute, synthetic and wool yarns anc tte.stiles. Through renewal of existing plants and establishment of new a;_ o-t es, total production capacity is planned to increase about 10-15 percent over the next 5-year ;period. Excess capacity has been experienced mainly in plants manufacturing cheap clothing for domestic consumption. The prices of these goods were recently reduced. 134. Production of cotton yarn and textiles reported a steady increase in recent years from 1963 to 1967: t.2 percent compounded for yarn and 3.8 percent compounded for textiles. In the same period, prodcuction of wool and synthetic yarns and textiles stagnated and production of jute yarn and textiles declined by about 45 percent. Food Processing 135. Until 1962 when it was surpassed by textiles, food processing was the largest branch of UAR industry although it has a very slow growth rate. In 1952, it accounted for 45 percent of total public and private manufacturing. In 1967 the public Jactories (93 percent of the total) covered almost 23 percent of the industrial sector output (LE 241.1 million). The major food products groups are, in order of the value of production: sugar and sugar products; cotton seed cake and oils; starch, glucose and yeast; corn and rice products; dairy products; canned, dried, preserved and frozen meats; vegetables and fruits; frozen shrimp. 136. Extension and renewal is p:Lanned mainly for sugar anid sugar products, preserved products, edible oils, dehydrated products and fish. Food processing did not have to cope with excess capacity problems since this affected significantly only soft drinks. For some lines of produc- tion the industry faces significant storage problems for lack of refriger- ation rooms. - 33 - Steel 137. The iron and steel mill has been operating uneconomically at Helwan since 1963. Its main problems are its uneconomic size, only 300,000 tons and high transportation costs for the ore and :Tuel. The plant operated at full capacity only last year. Continuous losses have been financed either through Government appropriations or through the banking system. Expansion of the plant, to achieve an economical size, had been given high priority by the Government. Negotiations with the USSR for its financing were com- pleted on May 15, 1968, and works are expected to start before the end of this financial year. The operation is scheduled to be finished by 1975. The new production capacity will be 1.5 million tons, anl the project in- cludes the development of Bahariya Oasis iron deposits a:id the construction of a railway from there to Helwan. The cost of the project is estimated at about 6E 350 million, 25 percent of which is in foreign exchange. Mining 138. Besides oil, the major mineral products of the UAR are phosphate rock, salt, manganese, iron, limestone, marble and gypsunl. Immediate prospects for expansion of production concern, mainly, phosphate rock and iron ore, since the major manganese deposits are Sinai aid Salt production near Port Said. Proved reserves of manganese ore amount to more than two million tons in Sinai, and minor deposits were recently Pound in the Eastern Desert. A project for expansion of salt production in cconnection with ex- port opportunities in Japan was interrupted after the closing of the Canal. 139. Efforts for expansion of phosphate rock exploration and extraction are being directed not only on traditional areas south of Suez (Safaga, Kosseir, Hamrawein), but especially in the Nile Valley in Upper Egypt where more than 130 million tons of proven reserves are located. Production is expected to increase from 740 thousand tons in 1968 to over 1.1 million tons by 1975. Expansion of production is, however, only but one priority. In fact, upgrading of output and improvement of extraction methods are felt as extremely urgent and necessary: the quality of output does not compare favorably yet with North African ores and labor productivity is extremely low. Mechanization, or at least semi-mechanization, of all the mining operations is needed in the short run. 140. Iron ore deposits are located at Aswan and the 3ahariya Oasis. Low grade Aswan iron, upgraded to about 50 percent, has been used for the Helwan Steel Mill since 1963, despite the high transporta-Aion costs involved in the operation because of the distance (about 950 km). The recently dis- covered Bahariya Oasis deposits contain about 166 million tons of proven reserves of almost 55 percent iron. Concluding Remarks 141. The central problem facing the country is how to make the best use of this significant growth potential of many branches of industry. For petroleum, chemical, engineering, mining and for the other promising branches, availability of capital locally is not the only difficulty. The problem is a combination of the availability of' foreign exchange, selection of projects, coordination of activities, location of investm.ent, standard of' management, implementation of policies aiming aLt; the best use of availab:Le resources, also of the unused capacity that has so far burdened many lines of production. In this connection it will be necessary to strengthen the mianiagement of the enterprises and to entrust them- with more autonomy regarding managerial deci- sions. 142. If Egypt can overcome her lack of foreign exchange and can supply industry with what is necessary to supplement investment in domestic cur- rency and if the present reorganization policy leads to the definition of an effective planning, her industrial growth potential can be better ex- ploited. The "new" industries, particularly chemicals, engineering and, petrochemicals could become competitive in the relatively short run. Through upgrading and renewal, also textile and food processing could! make more pro-- gress in the world market. For the heavy industry it will take longer time before its production can be justified on economic grounds alone. However, even for this sector the long run growth potential can De considerable, es- pecially if efforts toward economic integration among the Arab countries produce a larger market with the UAR the dominant supplier. VI. PUBLIC FINAICE, MIONEY AND PRICES Public Finance - Overall View 143. The nationalization measu:!es of 1961 marked a turning point in the role of the public sector in the UAR. All major economic activities were brought under government control with public investments now accountirng for about 90 percent of total investment in the country. Two budgets were created to cope with the new system of public ownership: the "'Services Budget" and the "Business Budget". The Services Budget covers the tradi- tional Central Government functions and include very modest investment ex- penditure (on average about 10 percent of total pu7blic investmrent). The Business Budget includes Public Authorities and Organizations, the latter acting as sector holding company to which a number of operating companies are affiliated. All surpluses generated by the Public Authorities and Organizations are transferred to the Treasury and, due to the absence of a capital market, investment financitg for the Business sector is provided by the Treasury either through loans or contributions to the capital of companies. 144. The fiscal situation viewed from the standpoint of mobilizing internal resources for development, can be characterized as one in which, despite a high ratio of tax-revenues to GDP - around 22 percent - central government savings have persistently been negative and total public savings have been around 4 percent of GDP in most years, though they f'el:L to as low as 2 percent in 1966. This situation has mainly arisen from the very high level and rate of increase of defense expenditure which is now around 10 percent of GDP. However, other current expenditure has also been rising more rapidly than government revenue and GDP. Consequently, public invest- ment expenditure fell continuously between 1964 and 1968. - 35 - 145. The willingness and ability of the Government to reduce investment expenditure in the interest of overall financial prudence should be stressed. But a continuously falling level of public investment is a trend which must be reversed before the fiscal performance of the UAR can be judged satis- factory from the point of view of development. The 1969 Budget envisages a substantial increase in public investment, a substantial part of which is however unlikely to contribute much to the growth of the economy in the near future. The possibility of significant additions to prodluctive investment over the coming years will largely depend on defense needs and orn the ability of the government to follow a policy of austerity for a protracted period of time, should these needs increase further. Past Trends 146. Central Government finances entered the 60's w>th a balanced cur- rent account budget but the situation rapidly deteriorated and reached its worst point in 1966, the last years of the Plan. The increasing deficit of the early 60's was mostly the result of a rapid growth in current ex- penditure which far exceeded the increase in revenue and GDP. Table 1: CENTRAL GOVEPRMENT Annual Rate of Growth 1959/60 - 1965/66 Current Expenditure 18.1 Defense 21.0 Social and economic services 18.0 Current Revenue 11.0 Tax Revenue 11.7 Gross Domestic Product 9.0 A main determinant of the growth of current expenditure vas the decision of the government to expand social and economic services in order to satisfy the basic needs of the population. For example expenditure for education and health more than doubled between 1960 and 1966. A very substantial part of expenditure for social and economic services has taken the form of transfers to local authorities, which by 1966 reached LE 123 million, almost 20 percent of current expenditure of the central government. 147. While the government in the early 1960's was trying to expand its development expenditure, it was faced with increasing requirements for defense expenditure which accelerated after 1963 mainly as a result of the military commitment in Yemen. Tn 1960, defense expenditE.re accounted for 30 percent of total current expenditure, or about 5 percent of GDP. by 1966, - 36 - these ratios climbed to 34 and 10 percent, respectively. The raLte of in- crease in expenditure on social and ieconomic services was of the same order of magnitude. Table 2: SEPV'ICES BUDGET (T,E million) Fiscal Years 1960 1962 1964 1966 1967 1963 1969 Prov. Est,, Current Expenditure 252 369 493 685 663 632 658 of which Defense 76 87 177 235 134 258 279 Social and Economic Services 84 129 177 227 223 226 253< Current Revenue 254 307 369 474 525 515 526 of which Tax Revenue 1-5 17( 272 34b 341 360 Balance -2 -62 -124 -211 --13 -117 -132 148. The revenue performanc- - ile government during th:is period was good when related to the vrowtk if ;:iie economy. By the end of the period, re- venues of the Central Governmient an.d of local authorities (about LE 50 million) were about 22 percent of GDP or 26 percent including the savings of the Social Security system. This rate is certainly high among developing coun- tries, particularly if allowance is nade for the low per capita income. Custom duties (of which 50 percent come from tobacco) were a very dynamic source of revenue all through the period. They are the single largest tax and account on the average for about, 30 percent of total revenue. Business profit taxes also increased very substantially, at an annual rate of 24 per- cent between 1960 and 1966. Their increase was particularly significant in 1965, and 1966, mostly as a result of the efforts of the tax administration in collecting tax arrears. 149. The only significant element in the revenue structure which did nct move in accordance with the growth of the economy was the land tax. The tax has a rate of 14 percent applied to the annual rental value of all arable land. The rental value corresponds to about 10 percent of the assessed value. The original assessment is the one of 1946 which a land reassessment conducted in 1956/58 was intended to revise. However, the 1958 land reassessment was delayed until 1966 because of the pclicy towards agriculture. Starting in 1903, the proceeds of the land tax were turned over to the local authorities, who impose a 15 percent surcharge. The yield of the land tax has, therefore, remained practically unchanged between 1960 and 1966. The rigidity of this tax, however, has been partially offset by the increased rates of the defense tax, which rose between 1961 and 1966 from 3.5 to 10.5 percent of the rental - 37 - value. The defense tax which is paid by the user of the land (owner or tenant), has been therefore the only way of increasing the tax burden on agri- cultural income. Table 3: PUBLIC SECTOR SAVINGS (TE million) Fiscal Years 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 l96y Prov. Est. Central Government -124.0 -145.4 -211.1 -137.5 -117.2 -132.4 Social Security 69.8 100.1 109.1 1422.7 144.9 161.5 Local Authorities 9.7 8.2 12.7 8.6 20.7 22.8 Public Enterprises 1/ 113.9 124.3 136.2 110.0 12.5-?/ 30.1-'1 Total 69.4 87.2 46.9 1C03.8 60.9 82.0 Public Investment 369.4 294.2 300.2 271.2 218.8 311.9 1/ Up to 1966 the savings of public enterprises are given gross of transfers from the Central Government to cover the deficit in the current operations of some enterprises. According to rough estimates such trans- fers have been of the order of FE 20-25 million. Savings of enterprises are defined, starting in 1967, as follows: Savings = (Surplus + Depreciation Funds) -Operating Deficit. 2/ The decline reflects the disapperance of the earnings of the Suez Canal Authority with the closure of the Canal. 150. The large current deficit of the Central Government has significantly offset the savings effort which took place at the other levels of Government. This was particularly evident in 1966 when public savings were only 2 percent of GDP. The decline in savings made it necessary to reduce the level of in- vestment which in 1964 had reached a peak level of LI, 370 million. The sec- tors most affected by the reduction were industry and tourism. However, the reduction in investment was not sufficient to avoid a large resort to Central Bank borrowing in 1966, when foreign credits also declined. The Budget esti- mates for 1966 had called for bE 17 million of borrowing from the Central Bank but the final deficit was WE 115 million, notwithstanding the stabili- zation measures taken at the end of 1965, which included tax and price in- creases as well as cuts in non-defense expenditure. - 38 Recent Developments - Stabilization vs. Growth 151. A substantial improvement in the financial situation ol the General Government occurred in 196r. both the current account deficit arid the over-- all deficit were substantially reduced. The improvement in the current de- ficit was first of all the result of an absolute decline in current expen- diture. Furthermore, there was a substantial increase in current revenues originating from the impact of the s-abilization measures. The results of 1967 would have shown a greater improvement had it not been for a substantial amount of liquidation of arreurs. 152. On the revenue side, it should be noted that tax revenues re- mained practically unchanged. This was first of all the result of an absolute decline in customs duties, after several years of rapid expansion. "le import restrictions which the government had imposed in order to meet the balance of payments problems are the major explanation for the decline. Fortuinately a vigorous policy in tap-Ang businiess tax arrears was able to offse±t this :-nortfall. 153. On the expenditure side, non-defe se expenditure expanded at about thie same rate as GDP and this target .was achieved by keeping expendi- ture f')r goods ano services almost unchan,,ed, by reducing cost of living subsidies and by limiting the increase ii the -wage bill to less than 4 per- cent. This latter is a noteworthy acl-Ilevement since upgrading of existing personnel., according to government ofre:Lials, accounts for about 3 percent of the ;wage bill. Finally, transfer:-. :o local authorities have also remained unchanged after the substantial increase in 1966. 154. A significant development in 1967 was the decline of total public expenditure, in terms of GDP, to the 1963 level. Such decline, was partially the result of further reduction iii investment expenditure which Eaffected mostly industry, transport and coumunications. The need to cut investment even though defense expenditure declined substantially was due mainly to the simultaneous drop in foreign credits and to the determination of the govern- ment to reduce borrowing from the Central Bank. 155. Tne war of June 1967 had a strong impact on the 1968 Budget be- cause of much higher expenditure for defense and revenue shortfalls, mostly attributable to the loss of Suez Canal revenues. A series of measures were taken to offset these factors. On the expenditure side the more important measures were the cancellation of the annual bonus for employees; reduction by one-half of representation allowazces and lowering of all other allowances by 25 percent. Expenditures for purchases of goods and services by the govern- ment were also reduced. On the revenue side, a national security tax was in- troduced at a rate of 50 percent of the existing defense tax. 1/ Other tax increases affected the stamp duties, taxes on private cars and other excise _/ The tax was only 25 percent of the defense tax levied on land in view of the fact that the land tax itself had been raised by about 25 percent as a result of the implementation of the land reassessment of 1956-58. - 39 - duties. Price increases were imposed, among others on cigarettes, sugar (by transferring part of rationed sugar to free sugar, whicih pays a higher price) and transportation fares. Furthermore, the damage to the oil refinery at Suez called for further rationing of kerosene and price increase on non- rationed kerosene. Finally, social security contributions were also raised. Table 4: FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (LE million) Fiscal Years 1964 1965 1966 1.967 1968 1969 Prov. Est. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Investment 369.4 294.2 300.2 271.3 218.3 311.9 Debt Repayment 1/ - - - - 20.7 25.4 Emergency Fund 2/ - - - - - 27.0 Total 369.4 294.2 300.2 271.3 239.5 364.3 Sources of Financing Public Savings 69.4 87.2 46.9 103.8 60.9 82.0 Savings Certificates - 6.2 17.5 24.8 13.6 15.0 Postal Savings 11.4 8.8 5.1 1.3 0.9 - Miscellaneous 55.2 39.6 48.o 9.5 70.7 14.0 Bank Claims 150.0 71.8 115.9 75.0 53.2 67.5 Foreign Credits 83.4 80.6 66.8 56.9 40.2 58.8 Emergency Fund -- - - - 127.0 -Aid from Arab Countries (107.0) -Other Special Revenue (20.0) 1/ It does not cover foreign debt repayment by enterpr:ises. Up to 1967 debt repayments, which include principal payments on foreign debt, appeared in the Services Budget Current Expenditure. 2/ An estimated amount of LE 100 million for defense ecpenditure has been included among Central Government Current Expenditure. The Emergency Fund amounts to bE 127 mrillion and is financed for bE 107 million by the Arab Aid, the remaining LE 20 million being proirided by special revenues, mostly stamp duties. In addition to defense expenditure the Fund finances support programs for the people living; in the Canal Zone (about bEL 13 million) and the losses suffered by the maritime companies attached to the Suez Cernal Authority. - 40 - 156. The outcome of these measures was to keep the current account deficit of the Central Governmeot at the same level as in 1967. HIowever, savings of enterprises declined very sharply mainly because of the closing of the Suez Canal, and this, together with the further reduction in foreign credits and the necessary curtailment of borrowing from the Central Bank called for a very substantial cut in public investment which fell below the 1961 level. In August 1967 an agreement was signed with Kuwait, Libya and Saudi Arabia for annual assistance of TF 95 million to offset the Suez Canal losses. It was increased to -L 107 million after the devaluation of sterling. TE 83 million were received during the fiscal year 1968. The allocations of these funds are not shown on the budget figures. It can be presumed that part of them would appear among Miscellaneous in table 4 on the financing of Public Sector Expenditure. 157. A revival of public expenditure characterised the 1969 budget. There was the desire on the one hand to bring public investment to a level more compatible with the long term development needs of the cotmtry, and on the other to increase public consumption both to relieve the pressure on individuals and also to raise effective demand in the economy. Thus, for example, the wage bill of the Central Government increased by 15 percent, reflecting the reinstatement of the various allowances which had been cut in the previous years. Looking at the various functions of govrernment, ex- penditure on social and economic services was increased by 10 percent after two years of stagnation. Expenditure for security and defense was also in- creased by about 9) percent. Public investment increased by more than 60 percent; however, the fact that a large amount of this increase comes from the expansion of the existing steel aill raises some questions as to its con- tribution to the increase in output over the near future. 158. The increase in current expenditure has been met by additional price increases (cigarettes and gas oil) and tax increases (national security tax) in addition to the expected natL,ral growth of public revenues. 1/ This leaves a current account deficit roughly equal to the one of 1968. For the financing of investment expenditure, the most significant items are the pro- ceeds of the Arab Aid, of iE 107 million. Organizational Problems and Policies 159. The heavy emphasis placed by the Government on solving short-term financial problems has not prevented a parallel effort to deal with some of the more structural problems of government activity. A number of possible economic and fiscal reforms are discussed in a document issued by the Govern- ment this year, including a reclassification of the various budgets to sepe- rate agencies and enterprises operating on a commercial basis from those performing more social functions. 1/ The data show a moderate increase in revenues but this is the result of a change in classification. See Annex tables 50 and 51. - 41 - 160. As regards revenue measures, the three main possibilities seem to be the introduction of a turnover tax, the revision of custom duties and an even greater effort in collecting tax arrears. Furthermcore, the land tax is also being studied. 'There is the idea of eliminating (or reducing) the existing exemption (LE 4 on tax assessments up to LE 20) to increase the contribution of agriculture to the development expenditure of the Government in that sector. The present system is marred by the lach of satisfactory records of land ownership which enables many taxpayers tc claim the exemption for properties which they may own in different provinces. 161. Another of the reforms discussed is enhancing the autonomy of local authorities, reducing their dependence on government aid which re- presents now about 70 percent of their total resources. Their own resources are mostly the proceeds of the land tax and the surcharge, public utilities revenue and entertainment taxes. Under the present system, the budgets of local authorities are submitted for approval to the Ministry of Local Author- ities and are based on the anticipation of a certain amount of government aid. The Ministry of Local Authorities, together with the Ministry of Treasury, decide the annual appropriations. Wnilst the advantages of a more decen- tralized structure are in theory substantial, it would seem that the most important issue in the UAR would be the administrative capacity of the local authorities to carry on a greater level of activity. At present such admin- istrative capacity is certainly concentrated at the Central Government level and could hardly be transferred to the field for some time. Furthermore, the tight expenditure policy which will be required in the coning years could be much more difficult to implement should the government lose to the local authorities control of a substantial amount of public expenditure. 162. As to public enterprises, the document on reforns addresses it- self in a general way to all their major problems, which are common to public enterprises in most countries: inadequate capital structure, inefficiency of operations, etc. The desire to run the enterprises efficiently comes out strongly in the document. It is stated that, "overstaffing should be shown separetly as a 'social cost' or burden . . . Thus . . . it will be evident who is responsible for the overstaffing, the enterprise or the State". It could be said that once overstaffing had been clearly identified, the excess labor should be taken away from the enterprises and transferred to the Central Government. Once a general job reduction is excluded, for social and politi- cal reasons, it may be better to allocate people to general government func- tions which are less likely to be disturbed by excess labor than in industry. 163. The lack of autonomy of enterprises creates a series of problems. One of them concerns their ability to use their own surplus. Under the present system the surplus of enterprises is transferred to the Tr-easury which charges interest on funds it makes available to them. A question is then whether the enterprise should receive interest free loans up to the snount of their sur- plus. Another important question is the level of interest; rates charged on loans by the Treasury, which is at present around 4 percent. This is certain- ly low, and it reflects a more general problem of the interest rate structure in the UAR. Any action to improve the efficiency of enterprises should con- sider the possibility of a more realistic cost of money whLich now incorporates - 42 - a subsidy element. The docjment refers also several times to the possibility of doing away with those enterprises which turn out to be uneconomic and at the same time do not performn any social function which might Justify their existence with the support of the -overnment. Money and Prices 164. Credit expansion in recent years has been largely dominated by government borrowing, reflecting the role of the public sector in the economy. Tfhe improvement of government finances in 1967 is therefore seen in the monetary data which show practically no increase in money supply for that year. In addition tu the reduced reliance of the Government on the banking system, there was in L967 a anbsolute decline in credit to the non- government sector. This. was the result of the effort on the part of the Agricultural Bank to (-Go1Lect a substantial amount of arrears f'rom the farms. 165. During tne year after tne war, restrictive credit policies were continued with net claims on the Government increasing substantially less than the previous year. 1/ Money supply declined in absolute terms for the first time for many years. Several factors, also discussed elsewhere in this re- port, indicate that the current year will probably show a more expansionary credit policy. A provision taken in 1968 has granted personal loans to government employees up to two months salary. This, in itself' will call for a credit expansion of rŽ 15-20 million. The results of the first months of 1969 still indicate a very modest increase in total credit, once adjustment is made for the financing of the cotton season. Available resources in the country should make such an expansion possible without serious inaflationary pressures, but obviously the Government should be careful in keeping credit expansion within reasonable limits. 166. The monetary policy of the UAR is facing a more structural problem with pervasive effects on the entire economy. Irterest rates for medium and long-term credit to enterprises, wlhen charged, are of the order of 4 percent. Interest to farmers vary uetween 4 1/' arid 6 percent. 'I'he Mortgage bank is expected to give loans 'Lt 3 percent 1hile borrowing its funds at 5 percent. Furthermore, these int_rest rates have CL tendency to remain un- changed regardless of the economic situation of the country and therefore they fail to perform their role in allocating available resoulrces. A general increase of interest rates would certainly affect the level of economic activity and should be implemented with equally important adjustment in the other cost and price factors which are now controlled by the Government (see, for example, the problem of excess labor). It is, in other words, one area of change among many others which are required to separate private and social costs in the UAR economr. 1/ Budgetary data show net claims on government of FE 53.2 mil:Lion as against the SE 28.2 million indicated by the monetary survey. The discrepancy is due to delays in the presentation of the f'inal accounts of the Government. - 43 167. Prices remained fairly stable between 1960 and the end of 1964. This was to a large extent the result of government control over prices. Prices of most goods are government controlled but at the same time large amounts of commodities are sold outside the rationing system. Fluctuations in these prices are not reflected in the indices. Between December 1960 and December 1962 money supply and GNP increased by 16 and 12 percent, respec- tively, while the cost of living declined. In those years, however, there were signs of repressed inflation in the form of shortag!! of consumer goods, black markets and rapid deterioration in the balance of payments. After 1964 and until the middle of 1966, prices were allowed to increase and this to a large extent reflected the stabilization measures t.akan by the govern- ment with the intention of reducing consumption as well as increasing govern- ment revenues. 168. Over the last two years, prices (1939 = 100) have remained stable or even declined. During 1967, a fairly unusual development took place: while the cost of living index declined, the wholesale p:ice index continued to increase even though less rapidly than in the past. The explanation lies probably in the coverage of the cost of living index which only reflects the prices of the rationed quantities of various commodities., A new cost of living index which reflects the price changes in non-rati.oned commodities, with base year in 1967, has been introduced - this index shows an increase of 4 percent between October 1967 and October 1968. The price reductions in 1969 for a series of domestically produced manufactured goods will probably contribute to a decline in the cost of living index. Table 5: PRICE INDEXES (1939 = 100) Cost of General Incdustrial Products Month/Year Living Wholesale Foodstuff Materials December 1962 296 420 403 438 December 1963 302 425 403 448 December 1964 339 453 445 462 December 1965 377 490 499 480 December 1966 394 526 568 485 December 1967 392 553 618 494 October 1967 394 564 641 494 October 1968 386 526 544 508 Prospects 169. In view of the role of the public sector in the UAR the future growth of the economy will depend to a very large extent on its performance. Ensuring an adequate increase in public investment is certainly the mnin long-run target of the government policy. In view of balance of payments difficulties a substantial effort is needed to mobilize domestic resources for investment. - 441- 170. 'ihe future level of defense expenditure is one of the most important factors which may influence investment in the next few years. Unless restraint is exercised in the further growth of defense expenditures, investment and thus the growth rate of GDP may not reach reasonable levels. In making projections for the next five years it is assumed that defense expenditure will increase at the same rate as other Central Government current expen- diture. 171. As to non--defense current expenditure, the growth rate of 6.5 percent, i.e. the same as the projected growth rate of GDP, allows for a faster expansion (8 percent) in social and economic services prorided that general administrative expenditure be kept around 5 percent. 1/ The UAR government nas sh;r~'n the ability, under pressure, to maintain wage and salary increases *within very moderate limits. 172. For tn.; purpv-ises of the projections in this report it has been assum- ed that current revenue will increase at 8 percent per annum, (an tlasticity of 1.3 with resxt to the giowtii ,f GDP). The recovery of the industrial sector and therefore of business taxes is implied in these project.ions. Fur- thermore, a streagthening of the tax administration which the Government is now contemplating should also contribute to the expansion in revelnue. The role of custom duties is likely to decline, even disregarding an: temporary reduction due to emergency import restrictions. However, such decline should be offset by increased revenues from domestic indirect taxes. 'I'he introduc- tion of a turnover tax, presently under study, would in fact represent a very important step towards the modernization of the tax system. 173. If the above projections were realized, the current account de- ficit of the central government would decline moderately over the coming five years. While its elimination should be the eventual target, it would be very unrealistic to expect such azi achievement unless defense expenditure is cut down very sharply. By way of' illustration, it may be noted that even if defense expenditure could be maintained at the 1969 absolute level, the current account will be balanced only by 1975 - thus adding abLout ^< 120 mil- lion to the present projection of puLblic savings for that year. On the other hand, the already high level of government revenue makes it hard to envisage a growth rate for revenues substantially faster than the one projected. 174. While the Social Security surplus (expected to ;row at 10 percent per annum based on historical performance), is a fairly reliable component of public savings, savings of enterprises are very volatile. In the past, actual performance has remained very often substantially below budget esti- mates which is particularly serious in a country where the public sector plays such a large role. 1/ Particularly in the fields of education and health, future investment will automatically generate a certain stream of current expenditure. This correlation should be kept in mind when deciding the level of in- vestment in these sectors. - 45 - Table 6: PROJECTION OF PUBLIC SECTOR SAVINGS (bE million) Fiscal Years 1969 1975 Central Government -132 -123 Current Expenditure 65E 957 of which Defense (279) (396) Current Revenue 526 834 Social Security 161 283 Local Authorities 23 30 Public Enterprises 30 47 Total 82 237 Public Investment 312 492 Savings as percent of GDP 3.1 6.6 Savings as percent of Public Investment 26.0 48.1 175. The present level of enterprise savings is very low and the main explanation is the closing of the Suez Canal whose earnings were their larg- est component in the past. however, should the Canal be reopened, the re- sulting increase in enterprise savings will probably be offset by the ces- sation of the Arab aid so that there would be no net increase in available funds. It is assumed in our projections that enterprise savings will in- crease at 8 percent per annum or roughly the expected growth rate of the industrial sector. 1/ Such an increase, in absolute amoimts is very small. A more favorable development, however, while within reachl, can only depend on the success of the Government in improving the efficiency of the system. It is therefore necessary to avoid excessive investment ]?rograms based on unrealistic expectations of enterprise savings. VII. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AN1D PAYMENTS 176. Egypt has been having balance of payments deficits continuously since the Second World War. The origin of the difficulties lies in the composition of the commodity trade, and in the management; of the balance of payments. 1/ Figures in table 6 do not include earnings from the Canal. - 46 - 177. Products of agricultural origin make up the bulk of exports (about 86 perce:rz. in recent years) and almost one third of imports. Among exports of agricultural origin, cotton and cotton products are the most important accounting for about oO percent of total exports. Irn recent years, the importance of rice has also increased (from 8 percent in 1965 to 16 percent of total exports in 19683). T'his makes the economy very susceptible to changes in prices of these cormmodities. 178. Another problem is the organization and management of the foreign trade sector. Foreign trade was nationalized in 1961 and was entrusted to public sector companies and organizations. Coordination among them was not very efficient. Following the June war (in July 1967) somae organiza- tional changes were made in the fornL of giving greater powers to the Com- modity Boards, leading to better coordination and more efficient use of scarce foreign exchange resources. After these changes, there were some complaints by the industrial enterprises regarding the process of alloca- tion of foreign exchange and delays in receiving imported goods. The situa- tion seems to have improved since then. The improvement in the terms of trade could probably be partly attributable to the increased efficiency of the system. 179. Another aspect of the mana.gement of the balance of payments is external debt administration. Borrowing at nard terms and in amounts beyond the repayment capacity of the country resulted in defaults and arrears which have accumulated and further aggravated the problem. Balance of Payments 18o. After having reached a very difficult position in 1966, the Govern- ment took some measures to improve t,he situation. There were some favorable developments in 1967: total current receipts increased by 7 percent and the current payments decreased by 2 percent as compared with the previous year. As a result, the current accounts deficit declined from fiE 111' million to i2E 79 million. The main factors in this improvement were a decline in imports and a rise in earnings from tourism end the Suez Canal. 181. In 1968 the balance of payments situation deteriorated because of the war. Canal earnings were lost, and, as a result of the loss of Sinai oilfields, oil exports dropped while imports of petroleum products increased. In 1968 the current accounts deficit reached bE 155 million. Part of the loss however (WE 83 million) was compensated in the form of Arab aid. The combined current accounts and transf'er payments deficit was bE 72 million in 1968 compared with bE 49 million in 1]967. Exports 182. Cotton is traditionally the mast important export commodity. A reduction in acreage in recent years has, however, resulted in a contraction in the amount exported which was already evident in 1967 (7.6 percent below 1966), and became more important in 1968 (20 percent below 1967). The composition of raw cotton exports, as shown in Table 68 also has changed somewhat. As a result of the overall decrease in output - an increasing - 47 - share of total production of extra-long staple cotton has been used by domestic spinners. For the current fiscal year, 1969, about 20 percent of domestic consumption (700,000 tons) will be covered by extra-long staple, mainly Menoufi. 183. Extra-long staple cotton has some special techrnical and economic characteristics. Despite its characteristics a certain degree of substitu- tion is possible between extra-long staple cotton and mar. made fibers and other cottons. Its supply is limited to a small number of courtries among which the UAR plays a very prominent role (45 percent of world trade). Therefore, Egypts behavior in the world market will be one of the mcst important factors determining future conditions. 184. Export prices have reached to a high level, particularly for extra- long staple, and a decline is, therefore, expected to appear from next year on. In terms of overall export earnings, however, since a rapid restoration of historical acreage levels (1.9 million feddans as compared with 1.5 million feddans in 1969) and an increase in yields is expected, the decline in prices will be more than offset by the growth in exportable surplus. Total export earnings are expected to show a steady increase up to 1973. 185. Rice is the second major agricultural export crop of the country. Eighty percent of the Egrptian rice exported is polished round grain. This is a variety directly competing with Burmese and Ttalian varieties, the price of which have recently reached a very high level, due to political and cli- matic conditions in Asia and to stock-piling in Japan. Tae present price level cannot be expected to last for long and a sharp decline (5-6 percent yearly) is projected for the near future. Nevertheless, it is expected that the exportable surplus of the UAR will grow despite a rise in domestic con- sumption. 186. The advantageous position Egyptian onions have in the European market has been the main factor for the growth of exports of onions over the years. Exports have sharply declined recently due to seed and insect problems affecting domestic supply. A steady recovery cani be envisaged, even though prices are unlikely to maintain their recent i.ncrease (70 per- cent in 1967 over 1966). 187. Other agricultural exports, mostly fruit and othier vegetables, provide at present less than 5 percent of total UAR export earnings. Potatoes, peanuts, fruit and citrus are the main products. A growth in their exports depends on trade barriers and competition in the E.uropean markets rather than on supply conditions. Although, in the long run, a moderate reduction in EEC non tariff barriers for some varieties can be envisaged, competition from excess supply countries is likely to exert a downward pressure on world market prices and other Mediterranean and African countries' preferential arrangements with the Common Market may limit the share which the UAR otherzise might have in the Common Market. 188. Cotton yarns and textiles are still the major item in UAR exports of semi-manufactures and manufactures. 'The average rate of growth from 1963 to 1967 was about 20 percent per annum. Total exports averaged 1E 44 46 million r:om 1966 to 196b and are exuected to leach about SE 55 million or 20 percent of exports in the .:urrent fiscal year. New varieties are enter inlg CzIe picture, mainly finer fizish-ed olotning, and the Government believes that 6ne export target of AE 7G million fOir yarns and textiles will be achieved even before 1975. Thizs is a reasonable expectation, especially ta.Sing into account the change in thi -omposition of this category, namely the increasing relative importar.r. if oetter quality finished goods enjoyinig higher unit prices. Therefore.. '-com 1966/68 (average) to 1975, the overall rate of increase may be about oO percent (7 percent per annum cormpounded). Despite this expected expansion and the export growth potential of the sector, the marketing of cotton yarns and textiles is encountering diffi- culties which deserve special attention. 'i'hey are related to (a) access to convertible currency markets and (b) use of high priced cotton as raw material. 189. A provisional member of GATT, the UAR has been participating as a Group II (developing, exporting) ccuntry in the Cotton Textile Long Term Arrangement (LTA) since 1962. During Round VI of GATT Commercial aegotia- tions, the UAR subscribed to the 3-year extension of the arrangement and concluded, mainly within the framework of LTA, commercial agreements with importing countries providing principally for expanded access to their mar- kets. Despite the allocation of assured quotas in some markets, and their yearly expansion, the LTA has worked unsatisfactorily for the UAR. Actuallly Lgyptian exports to LTA Group I (developed, importing) countries have dimin- ished both in absolute value and in percentage since the Arrangement came into force, as shown by the following table: 'iable 1 (hE million) Cotton Yarn Exports %_)tton Cloth Exports % Year LTA Countries Total Export LTA LTA k':untries Total Export LTA 62/63 10.0 21.0 48 5.0 1i4.1 36 63/64 12.0 32.2 37 6.1 1'5.2 40 64/65 12.2 35.2 35 4.5 1!5.8 28 65/66 9.7 37.9 26 1.9 1:L.9 17 66/67 7.4 43.0 17 2.7 17.5 15 Source: UAR, The Textile Consolidation Fund. Note: A difference in total value from official customs data, lies in the fact that the Textile Consolidation Fund data are based on contracts rather than on actual exports and that they include also small amounts of silk yarn and products. - 49 - 190. The market for Egyptian yarn and textiles is 'Limited not only by market barriers in the importing countries but also by -he high cost of the relatively high quality of cotton used in Egyptian text:Lle milles as compared with similar mills in other countries. This cost differ-ence is particularly relevant for cotton yarn, where cotton costs represent about 60 percent of the total, out substantial also for cotton textiles. Subsidies to overcome this disadvantage are paid to exporters to convertible currency countries (about 40 percent of total exports) through the Textile Consolidation Fund, a marketing and technical agency established in 1953. The Fund obtains re- sources by withholding a portion of the taxes collected on sales of cotton and through direct Government appropriations made to the Fund when its own resources cannot meet the refund requirements. rThe following table sum- marizes the refunding operations in the recent years: Table 2 Fiscal Subsidies resources Exports of Yarn Exports of Cloth Total Paid to of the Thousand Mil. Thousand iluil. Thousand Mil. Exporters Fund Years Tons E Tons iE Tons LE Mil. LE % Mil. LE 1964/65 35.2 25.1 16.3 12.2 51.5 37.3 4.5 12.2 3.0 1965/66 37.9 29.0 12.3 10.8 50.2 39.9 4.1 10.2 3.2 1966/67 43.0 32.8 18.3 15.3 61.3 48.1 5.6 11.7 3.1 196T/68 42.3 33.0 24.3 18.8 66.6 51.8 8.4 16.1 3.2 Source: The Textile Consolidation Fund iIote: see Table 1 The increasing use of extra long staple varieties, mainl; Menoufi, by domes- tic mills bears a direct relation with the increase in refunds. 191. Fuel and mining exports will be of increasing importance in the near future for the UAR balance of trade. The petroleum balance of payments is expected to record a continuous surplus from 1971 onward. The balance is expected to reach about LE 58 million in 1975, whereas the deficit which was about LE 12 million before the war, reached LE 21 million in 1968. In the last three years, (1966-1968), exports of natural calciwi phosphate averaged only FE 2 million and those of cement iE 2.5 million. Phosphate exports are expected to nearly double by 1975. Also salt and mranganese exports may be expected to resume when Sinai is returned to 'JAE control and conditions are normalized along the Canal. 192. Non-traditional mwanufactures also offer good prsospects for increased futture foreign exchange earnings. They include such itenis as furniture, drugs, - 5C - refrigerators and leather articles. Tne export target for this group for 1968/69 is about WE 440 million, of vhich processed food is 4iE 12 million, chemical in(dustries bE 2.8 million, engineering industries bE 3 million, metallurgical industries bE 2 millico, building and construction materials b. 5-6 million and private sector mantufactures 1.E 10 million. T''his compares with the previous years' exports of I,E 25 million. This target looks reason- able in the light of the new Bilateral Agreements. 193. The growth in industrial exports is, however, reflected in an in- crease of Government appropriations for export subsidies as well as refunds for cotton yarns and textiles. Appropriz.-.ions for the industrial sector budgets for the subsidies in the fiscal year 1969 total bE 12.9 million, nearly half of which is allocated to spinning and weaving, and the remainder mostly to metallurgical products anc[ building and ceramic materials. Subsidies amount to about 12 percent of total exports of manufactures and semi-manu- factures by the public sector. A better assessment of their impact could be made by taking into consideration that they are granted mostly for exports to the convertible currency countries. About 65 percent of exports of manu- factures and semi-manufactures go to bilateral-agreement countries. It means that export subsidies to convertible currency countries amount to about 30 percent of the value of exports of su7bsidised commodities to thliese countries. Subsidies to foodstuffs are about 20 percent of total expected exports; to spinning and weaving about 10 percent; (plus about 6 percent in the form of tax rebates); minerals about 20 percent, and engineering products about 14 percent. The amount of Government pq)propriations for export subsidies of me- tallurgical industries is about 40 percent higher than the total value of ex- pected exports for this category indi.cating the extent to which these indus- tries need assistance to export to the convertible currency areas. 194. The composition of UAR exports is likely to show significant changes in the not too distant future. Cotton and rice will 'Lose their predominance, whereas oil, petroleun products, chemicals and :Light manufac- tures will have a greater importance. By 1975, oil and petroleum products are projected to comprise 16.6 percent of total exports as compared with only 2.6 percent in 1968. The semi--finished and finished goods, excluding textiles, are projected to account for about 20 percent, as compared to 10 percent in 1968. On the other hand, raw cotton and cotton yarns and textiles are expected to decline to about 50 percent of the total as compared to 66 percent at present. Imports 195. Imports are strictly controlled. Since the nationalization of the import trade in 1961, several attempts nave been made to rationalize the system of import control. After the reorganization of the foreign trade sector in 1967, it was decided to centraliZe the purchase of all similar imports in order to standardize the :requirements and strengthen the bargain- ing position of the importing organizations. This exercise created many delays and difficulties and as a result rules were somewhat relaxed. Con- tinuous shortages led many companies to build up unnecessarily large stocks of spare parts. A study carried ou. by the Government of the causes of - 51 - unused industrial capacity in 1965 and 1966) nas shown that the most signif- icant factors were the shortage of imported raw materials and spare parts despite the fact that imports in 1966 had reached the highest level in the country's history. 196. Rigid controls caused a sharp decline in imports (25 percent from 1966 to 1968). The most important group of imports which was drastically hit by this was investment goods (35 percent). The only group which was not affected by the curtailment was foodstuffs. Decline in imports orought about in this way resulted in a significant change in the complosition of imports. The share of foodstuffs increased from 24 percent in l196 to 37 percent in 1968. 197. It is difficult to expect further declines in imports. As invest- ment increases and measures for fuller utilization of existing industrial capacity start to yield some results, imports will start increasing. In fact, increased imports of raw materials and spare parts is one of the pre- conditions for a better utilization of existing capacity. Invisibles 198. Until 1968, the UAR always had a positive, albeit fluctuating, balance on invisibles. The average of net balances in the preceding five years was TE 57 million, main contributors being the Canal and tourism. In 1968 net invisibles showed a deficit of bE 21 million, and increases in tourist earnings in the current year are not likely to restore the surplus in this account. Political conditons permitting, there is a great potential for tourism but it is difficult at this stage to predict the future trends of earnings from the Canal. M4uch may depend on when it is reopened. Oil traffic is in any case expected to decline in importance due to the shift to very large tankers, but the Government hopes to recoup at least part of the lost revenues through transit charges for use of the Suez-Alexandria pipeline, construction of which is scheduled for completion in 1970. It has been assumed for the purposes of the report that the combined revenues will be at the level of earnings of the Canal in 1967. The Terms of Trade 199. The terms of trade indices of the UAR have shown a continuous improvement since 1963. With 1963 taken as the base year, the net rate was 131 in 1967; this was a result of developments in the unit prices of both exports and imports. In 1967 export price indexes was 117, while the import price index was 89. On the export side, the favorable prices for cotton and rice, and on the import side declines in the prices of foodstuffs, helped to achieve this favorable situation. In 1968 and 1969 the favorable developments are likely to continue. In addition to a continuation of the price trends the improved payments procedures of at tne Government are li]cely to help. But in the longer run expected declines in the cotton and rice prices may change this situation. 200. The developments of the terms of trade in the Dilateral trade area is of some interest. A study of the UAR's commodity tradle with the socialist 5 2 countries of Eastern Hurope suggests that this was even more favcrable. Average prices of a substantidl proportion of commodity imports from these countries were 5 to fd percent lower than those of imports front o-ther sources in the early 1960's. It is not known, however, whether and tc, vinat extent this benefit was offset by higher prices of imports of complete e4uipment and plants into the UAR. Direction of Trade 201. The regional. pattern of trade has changed markedly since tile earlyr 1960's. Western Europe has been replaced by Eastern Europe Us tihe main trad- ing partner of the UAR. Eastern EurDpe absorbed about 50 jercent of export1, in 1966 and 1967. This declined to 42.4 percent in 1968. (The average share during the first five year plan was 43.5 percent). More significant 1was the Jump in imports from the East. 'The ,< Sect ors 16 Manpo w.er Str,umcture 17 D>ST: bitr tizl of F-m§lo.meot by iect-?r anfbhY Cl cupcitio.n for C'nsnu , b a -rs. 19it7 anl l1'960') 1. ('ri,11 o' lJniomr,r~. 1,6/61- -6) E tOWCr S ly T7and Tema nd, Ps ti*Ttdes len 3 icupa tionaqT Thourq fr,r i4>A-;/A,- r I '9/70 2ot1 " ages by S,et,r 21 a .7 E 'tructure hy Sectnr - -fwt,la of~ .tp D ~oymert^n , > fagos, 05' ? 2t3 ' -rvice Pay Scal-s -p liorl A' ' '' T- !t,- i Enrc'i7. 1 C' -, ir. Friiwi ary a d ecdcor -. .. J' ,, 7e 3 cher T- 1 .i -!ni. 25 Tc]ta s~ErolI.rn'L s in 1-L In; 4 ji,T L utes and:3 r,3.,i.s i SI2ro'.Imen t Di. Staibut on of EnroILents '1ri i-?r Inz ti tutes and - r -i L - 1)W O 1. f 5u O i >,--0rOtndov Crors by 305900, 1". [.-- }9(Y ; . - 'a ?,b Se-, -l anl (ro1 t-;1 Rtsi - A . so rea tlrutqo';l li;ln3 J1 e v -h ItA DO G -o.i1 R-ates - i.n 'HCiYJ 1 e. i.m-n fur InWor L C rops ,.1t,ernotive lTm. cat l o f f rot`- : iates :r. Y-.I - .d; r,er aeŁe fc,r Ylaor Farm Croy. -uPut of t1 o -r Agriciu]tur4I.1 Prodvc Ct ( i oJ1U;g Live stock 1952 and 1960-19684 OutputJ of Major Agricultur-a1 Pre:ducts (Excl.udi, T4vestoci' n 9r' and l960-196P, ( c0 uonlodli) Distribution of erm Ho1Jdinmos lby Siza 3nd Tenuri : 19f1 3 Credit Issued to Farmers by thIe :g Aptian General Jr. *aniza t-i on of Agricultural and Cooperative Cred;it, 1957 to 1967 3t tnd-icative Costs of Land Riaclaiation eInd Developylent 37 Production and Uses of Cotton 3,8 oomd Consumption per (apita pe-r Day by Commrodity Group in;o Selected Recent Years 39 industrial Production Index Numbers L0 The Value of Industrial Output 41 Electricity 1960/61 - 1967,68 12 PW-oduction, Exports and Imports of Cott;on Yarn 4 I Production, Ecports and Imports of Cotton Fabrics lL Production and Consumrption of Commercial Fertilizers 5 Production of Crude Oil 46 Quantity and Value of Local Consumption of Petroleum Products (Valued at Import Prices) 7 Tourist Nights 1962 - Jan./Nov. 1968 48 Central Government - Current Revenue 49 Central Government - Current Expenditure 50 Investment in the Public Sector 51 Gross (Public and Private) Investment in Agricilture in Current Prices Distribution of Public Investment in Agricult,ure 53 Factors Affecting Liquidity Money Supply and Quasi-Moneye Cost of Living and WMholesale Prices 55 Wholesale and Retail Prices of Selected Commoditiees 56 Prices Paid by Farmers for 11ented Inputs in Recent, Year s 57 Pr.ces at which staple foodrs hwve been made available te the food trade by the General Organizaticn for Supply Cr3 Inventory of the General Organization for Supply 59 Caslh gains and losses by commodity in stp,a.e foods, supply and Prio e stabilization, 1967-68 anl 19C6q-6? 60 Balance of Payments 1962/63 - 1967/68 61 Ial33nces on clearing and other accounts (Payments Agreements) f? Composition of Trade ( 3 Di)rection of Trade 64 Foreign Trade Index-es and the Term.s of Trade Rea li7, ed E.pcort Price 3 for AYr4clultural Commo i ties4 Cotton Exnorts by Variety 67 t1.0'-odvctic IEbcports and Imrports of R4.ce 68 ffinorts of Manufactures 69 `--troleum Balance of Payments 70 ' --rnal Public Debt Outstan-ling 71 Źst.r:ated IFture Service Payments on External Dsbt 72 I I I Table 1 : PRODUCTION (Current Prices) (LE m:-ilion) Sectors 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Agriculture 822.8 884.o 928.9 Industry and Mining 1623.6 1769.? 1835.2 Construction 181.2 197.8 188.1 Electricity 39.1 41.9 43.5 Total Productive Sectors 2666.7 2892.9 2996.4 Transportation, Communication and Storage 23407 260.5 270.5 Commerce and Finance 231.9 254.7 273.0 Total Distribution Sectors 466.6 515.2 543.5 Housing 78.9 80.? 83.3 Public Utilities 14.9 16.2 16.6 Services 696,4 701.8 735.1 Total Service Sectors 730.2 798.2 8351.0 Total of all Sectors 3863.5 4202.4 4374.9 Adjustment of the Value of Production /1 12.4 14.4 14.4 GRAND TOTAL 3875.9 4220.7 4389.3 /1 Correction is made by including an adjustment of subsid:Les minus excise taxes. Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 2 : PRODUCTION (Constant Prices of 1964/65) (fi million) Sectors 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Agriculture 822.8 851.5 839.8 Industry and WMing 16'23.6 1716.2 1716.9 Construction 131.2 197.8 183.1 Electricity 49.1 41.9 Total Productive Sectors 26_6.7 ?807.4 2783.? Transportation, Communication and Storage 23?47 257.2 264.2 Commerce and Finance 2312 947.5 25909 Total Distribution Sectors 4S6.6 SOh.7 52401 Housing 78.9 802? 8302 Public Utilities 14.9 16.o 16.4 Services 636.4 683.9 699.3 Total Service Sectors 730.2 780,1 798.9 Total of all Sectors 3863.5 4092 o2 4106.2 Adjustment of the Value of Production /1 12.4 14.4 14.4 GRAND TOTAL 3875.9 4106.6 4120.6 /1 Correction is made by including an adjustment of subsidies minus excise taxes. Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 3 : GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (At Factor Cost at Current Prices) (LE million) Sector 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Agriculture 582.1 608.5 611.0 Industry and Mining 423.4 461.1 )!77-4 Construction 92.6 94.9 94.3 Electricity 24.2 24.3 25.2 T.otal Productive Services 1121.3 1188.8 1907.9 Tr anspsortation, Coimwuication and Storage 176oO 196.6 904.8 Commlerce and Finance 168.0 181.5 195.9 Total Distribution Sectors 344.0 378.1 400.7 Ilousing 74.9 76.1 79.0 Public Utilities 8.2 9.2 9.4 Services 414.2 457.5 482.1 Total Service Sectors 497.3 542.8 570.5 Total of all Sectors 1962.6 2109.7 2179.1 Adjustment of the value of Production /1 12.4 1404 14.4 GRAND TOTAL 197T;.0 2124.1 2193.5 /1 Correction is made by including an adjus-tment of subsi(Lies minus excise taxes. Source! The MLiinistry of Planning rablo 4. ; STIC t'}LDUCT (At "''.t'.. : ' ilaLued at Constant 1-rices of 1964/65) (fgK million) Sectors 15P4/65 1965/66 1966/67 Agriculture 582.1 588.1 569.5 Industry and Miining 423.4 433.8 436.9 Construction 92.6 94.9 88.5 Electricity 23.2 24.3 25.? Total Productive Sectors 111.3 1141.1 1120.1 Transportation, Commmnication and Storage 176.0 194.7 201.3 Commerce and Finance 128.0 180.2 190.7 Total Distribution Sectors 344.o 374.9 392.0 Housing 74.9 76.1 78,8 Public Utilities 8.2 9.1 9.4 Services 41447.7 62.4 Total Service Sectors 497.3 532.9 550.6 Total of all Sectors 1962.6 2048.9 2062.7 Adjustment of the Value of Production /1 12.4 14.4 14__ GRkND TOTAL 1975.0 ?263.3 2077.:L /1 Correction is made by including an adjustment of subsidies minus excise taxes. Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 5 : THE STRUCTURE OF THE GROSS DOIESTIC P'RODUCT (% at Factor Cost, Constant Prices of 1964/65) Sectors 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Agriculture 29.7 28.7 27.6 Industry and Mining 21.6 21.2 21.2 Construction 4.7 4.6 4.3 Electricity 1.? 1.9 1.2 Total Productive Sectors 57.2 55.7 54.3 Transportation, Communication and Storage 9.0 9.5 9.8 Commerce and Finance 8.5 8.8 9.2 Total Distribution Sectors 3 119.0 Housing 3.8 3.7 3.8 Public Utilities .4 .4 .5 Services 21.1 21.9 22.4 Total Service Sectors 25.3 26.0 26.7 GRAND TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: The Ministry of Planning Table ' : GROSS NiAT'IONAL PRODUCT ANTD =END[TTJY-E (At Current Pricos - LE million) 19064/65 1965/66 1966/67' GDP at Current Factor Costs 19175.0 2124.1 2193.5 Net Factor Income from Abroad - 2 71..7- - L .8 GNP at Current Factor Costs 1953.3 2109.4 2174.7 Indirect Taxes 284.9 330,8 349.2 Subsidies (-) 46.4 52.0 43O9 GI-P 2:.91.8 2388,2 2475.() GD1' 2213.5 2402.9 2493e8) Personal Consumption 1462.9 1583.3 1667.0 Government Consumption 437.4 481.9 488.4 Total Domestic Investment :358.4 377.4 3588tl Inventories 23.3 68.8 37.9 ELxportus of Goods &- Services 411.4 409.4 418. 6 Imports of Goods & Services 467.5 531.5 456.4 Statistical Discrepanc,- -:2.4 +13.6 -20 ,5 Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 7 :E,YENDITU1M AS A % OF GNP (at current prices) 196h/65 1965/66 1966/67 Personal Consumption 66.74 66.30 67.76 Government Consumption 1996 20.18 19.73 Total Domestic Investment 16.35 15.80 14.5o Inventories 1.06 2.88 1.53 Exports of Goods & Services 18.77 17.14 16.91 Irnports of Goods & Services 21.33 22.26 18.44 Current Accounts Deficit 2.56 5.11 1.53 Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 8 : GROSS TIAI'ONAL PRODUCT ANI EXPENDITURE (At Constant Priceis of 1964/1965 - ME million) 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 GDP at constant factor costs of 1964/65 1975.0 2063.3 20137.1 hlet factor income from abroad - 21,7 - 14.7 - 18.8 GNP at constant factor costs of 1964/65 1953.3 2048.6 2058.3 Indirect Taxes 284.9 313.6 296.9 Subsidies - 46.4 = 52.0 - 48.9 GNTPR' 2191.8 2310.2 2306.3 GDP 2213.5 2324.9 2325.1 Personal Consumption 11.i62.9 1503.8 1524.5 Government Consumption 437.4 477.3 479.7 Total Domestic Investment 358.4 376.3 350.4 Inventories 23.3 66.5 36.5 Exports of Goods & Services 411.4 407.8 408.1 Imports of Goods & Services (-) - 467.5 - 52004 - 453.6 Statistical Discrepancy - 12.4 + 13,6 - 20,5 Source: The sinistry of Planning TABLE 9 : FINAL CONSUPYTION (In Current Prices) (SE million) Items 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Personal Consumption 1462.9 1583.3 1667.0 Public Consumption 437.4 481.9 488.4 Final Consumption 1900.3 2065.2 2155.4 Gross National Product 2191.8 2388.2 2475.o Personal Consumption as a % of Gross National Product 66.7 66.3 67.4 Public Consuwption as a % of Gross National Product 19.9 2002 19.7 Final Consumption as a % of Gross National Product 86.6 86.5 87.1 Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 1W: FINAL CO1NSUIeTION (In Constant Prices of 1964/65) (ŁE mfill !on) Items 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Personal Consumption 1462.9 1503X8 1523.5 Public Consumption 137.4 477.3 479.7 Final Consuwption 1900.3 1981.1 2004.2 Gross National Product 21.51.8 2`10.2 2306.3 Personal Consumption as a % of Gross National Product 66.7 65.1 66.1 Public Consumption as a % of Gross National Product 19.9 20.6 20.8 Final Consumption as a % of Gross National Product 86.6 86.9 Source: The 1iPLnistry of Planning Table ii: GROSS DOME STIC INVESTMENT (At Current Market Prices) (ME million) Items 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Total Fixed Domestic Investment 358.4 377.4 358e8 Increases in Inventories 23.3 68.8 37.9 Gross Total Domestic Investmient 381.7 446.2 396.7 Gross National Product 2191.8 2388.2 2475.0 Total Fixed Investment as a A of Gross National Produlct 16.3 15.8 14.5 Inventories as a % of Gross National Product 1.1 2.9 1.5 Total Domestic Investment as a % of Gross National Product 17.4 18.7 16.0 Source: The Ministry of Planning Table 1?: D-ISTRIBUTION OF GROSS FIXED DOkESTIC LI.VESTE IT BETWEEEN STCTORS (At Cur.rent Market Prices) (SE million) Sectors 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Agriculture 32.5 30.7 31.3 Irrigation and Drainage 37.9 32.6 34.4 High Dam 18.6 19.0 16.5 Industry and Mining 99.9 100.6 98.4 Construction 5.2 6.8 3.9 Electricity 53.? 61.1 69.3 Total Productive Sectors 247.3 250.8 253.8 Transportation, Cormunication and Storage 45.9 49.4 42.6 S-uez Canal 3.4 3.7 3.5 Commerce and Finance 403 2.7 2.6 Total Distribution Sect,ors 5568 48.7 Housing 30.5 47.5 42.3 Public Utilities 11.2 12.4 8.6 Services 21,7 17.3 12.4 Total Service Sec-ors 63.4 77.2 63.3 Total Including Value of Land 364s3 383.8 365.8 Land Value 5.9 6.4 7.0 Total Excluding Value of Land 358L4 377.4 358.8 Public Sector 338.1 349.6 329..4 Private Sector 20.3 27.8 29.4 Source: The Yinistry of Planningr Table 13 SOURCES OF DOMESTIC SAVINGSD (Nillion LE in Current Prices) 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 TOTAL SAVII1S GENERATED IN PUBLIC SECTOR 286.9 261.8 310,6 1. The Public Business Sector Exeluding Financial Institutions 195.8 206.4 197. - The Share of Government in the Public Business Sector 96.0 1]l..5 105.0 - The Autonomous Organizations and Public Institutions 3.6 - 1.0.6 - 6.o - Public Companies 83.9 S8.1 93.0 - The --hare Devoted to Centralized Social Services for Labor 7.3 4.4 5.7 2, Banking and Insurance 20.5 134 26.3 - Banking 8.6 1.1 12.2 - Insurance Fnds 3.4 3.9 4.2 - Postal Savings Funds 5.4 4.9 - 2.8 - Savings Banks 0o1 0.3 0. - Savings Certificates 0.0 11.2 12.3 3. Social Insurance Sector 97.1 117.0 135.6 - Public Organization for Insurance and Pensions 47.3 5304 55.6 - Public Organization for Social Insurance 49.8 60.4 67.9 - Half-day Savings Scheme 0.0 3,2 12.1 4. The Government Sector - 80.5 - 97.0 - 64.o 5, Others 54.0 22.0 15.0 Savings in the Private Sector 20.3 27.8 29.4 GRAND TOTAL OF SAVIIUS AND I NuLDMT4-1, 307Q? 309.6 340o0 Source: The TIinistry of Planning Table 14: POPULATION, LABOR FOhCE, EMPLOYMENT Growth rates Per annum 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1974/75 1960/61- 1960/61- 65/66 (%) 69/70 (%) Population (thousands) TOTAL 26,397.0 27 122.0 27 874 0 28 65o.0 29 456.0 30 294 0 31,162.0 32 059.0 32 982 0 33 933.0 37,800.0 2.8 2.8 Male 13,392.0 13,789.0 1b,194:0 14,611.0 15,046.0 15,500.0 15,174.0 16,456.0 16,957:0 17!475.0 Female 13,005.0 13,336.0 13,680.0 14,039.0 14,410.0 14,794.0 14,902.0 15,603.0 16,025.0 i6,458.0 Urban 9,766.9 12,117.6 14,387.6 Rural 16,630.1 18,176.4 19,545.4 Urban (%) 37.0 40.0 42.4 5.0 Rural (%) 63.0 60.0 57.6 1.8 Aged 15-64 13,304.1 15,813.5 17,713.0 Age Group Distribution (%) 0- 18.9 18.3 18.3 5-14 27.2 26.1 26.1 2.8 92, 15-19 8.4 8.0 VI.C)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~909 20-24 6.9 6.7 6.7 25-64 35.1 37.5 37.5 65- 3.5 3.4 3.4 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 Labor Force Male 6,498.o 6,694.o 6,900.0 7,112.0 7,335.0 7,565.0 7,804.o 8,o48.o 8,303.0 8,564.o 11,148.0 12,954.0 15,072.0 Female 442.0 475.0 509.o 545.o 583.0 622.0 622.0 704.0 747.0 792.0 917.0 1,045.0 1,203.0 TOTAL 6,940.0 7,169.0 7,409.0 7,657.0 7,918.0 8,187.0 8,466.o 8,752.0 9,050.0 9,356.0 12,065.0 13,999.0 16,2?75.0 Employment 6,511.9 6,656.9 6,868.2 7,085.0 7,373.9 7,606.0 7,714.1 7,744.2 8,881.0 Unemployment 428.1 512.1 54o.8 572.0 544.1 581.0 751.9 1jO07.8 Note: Population data for 1960/61 and 1965/66 are census results. All other data are either interpolations or projections (assuming constant fertility rate). Labors Force and Employment data reflect the actual situation until 1966/67, thereafter they represent estimates. Source: Population Increase and Economic Development in the UAR until 1966, Cairo 1967 (In Arabic); Population Developrent 1930-1966, Cairo 1968 (In Arabic); The Ministry of Planning and the Ministry of Economy. Table 15: POPULATION, LABOR FORCE, EMPLYME]T GROWTH RATES (in percent) Population Population Total Urban Rural aged 15-6h Labor Force Employment Unemployment 1960/61-1967/68 total 21.4 26.1 18.9 135.h Annually 2.8 3.4 2.5 13.0 1960/61-1969/70 total 28.5 47.3 17.5 33.1 34.8 37.7 Annually 2.8 5.0 1.8 3.2 3.4 3.6 1960/61-198V/85 total 89.2 13h.5 Annually 2.8 3.6 Source: Compilation on the basis of data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and from the Ministry of Planning. Table 16: EI'4PLOYMENT BY SECTORS 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 Growth rates of employment (in thousands) 1960/61-67/65 Annual Employment by Sectors: Agriculture 3,600.0 3,600.0 3,632.0 3,673.0 3,780.0 3,796.4 3,815.6 3,931.0 9.19 % 1.3 % Industry 625.6 679.0 725.9 789.7 825.0 875.8 849.0 866.1 38.4 4.8 Electricity 13.1 15.1 17.4 17.9 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.8 51.1 6.1 Construction 166.0 263.0 315.7 334.2 345.2 291.5 318.8 215.8 30.0 3.8 Sub-Total 4,)7O.1 )4,5691.0 4,814.8 4,968.2 4,982.1 5,O,032.7 T17 7 LI Transport & Communication 252.7 239.2 249.2 258.3 277.7 313.3 332.0 336.8 33.2 4.2 Housing Services l6ou 18.u 18. 18_5 21Ko 21 7 22.7 2 .7 48.1 5.8 Public Utilities Sorvices 24.3 27.1 28.7 29.5 30.3 31.4 32.2 33.2 36.6 4.6 Trade & Finance 663.0 680.9 702.2 719.0 729.7 762.7 784.4 798.6 20.45 2.7 Education & Scientific Services 200.0 204.0 211.5 226.0 256.o 258.8 285.1 308.7 54.35 6.4 Health 58.3 66.3 85.3 90.0 86.o 95.5 113.9 121.8 108.9 11.1 Social & Religious Services 28.6 29.0 27.5 31.6 33.1 35.4 40.0 41.3 44.4 5.4 Defense, Justice, Security 178.0 179.5 179.4 184.3 184.3 193.9 209.6 215.1 20.8 2.7 Cultural & Recreational Services 17.8 19.0 25.8 23.8 26.5 30.3 37.8 37.2 108.9 11.1 Gov't Organizational Services 90.0 93.0 103.5 145.5 180.5 202.9 221.0 229.4 154.8 14.3 Personal Services 578.5 543.5 546.0 543.7 540.1 556.6 550.3 565.7 -2.3 -0.1 Sub-Total (Services) 2,107.2 , 2,177.2 2,270.2 2,365.2 2,502,5 2,629.o 2,711.5 _21FZ7 3.7 GRAND TOTAL 6,511.9 6,656.9 6 868 2 7,085.0 7,333.4 7,484.6 7,631.4 7,7)44.2 18.9 2.5 Source: The Ministry of Planning. Table 17: MANPOWER STRUCTURE (In percent) 1960/1 1961/62 1962763 1963/64 196:l/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967768 Population aged 15-64 to Total Population 50.4 52.3 52,3h Labor Force to total pop. 26.' 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 Working Pop. to labor force 93.8 92.9 92.7 92.5 93.1 92.9 91.1 88.5 Working Pop. to total pop. 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.1 24.8 24.2 Unemployed to labor force 6.2 7.1 7.3 7.5 6.9 7.1 8.9 11.5 Employed by sectors (Total-100) Agriculture 55.2 54.1 52.9 51.8 51.5 50.7 50.0 50.8 Industry & Mining 9.6 10.2 10.6 11.1, 11.2 11.7 11.1 11.1 Electricity 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Construction 2.5 4.O 4.6 4.7 4.7 3 4.3 2.8 Sub-total ZTT i5 W.W 6w.9 67.7 66. 5-6 6.9 Transport & communications 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.9 4.L .44 Housing Services 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 .3 0.3 0. 0.3 Public Utilities 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1, 0.14 0 4 0.b Trade & anance 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.91 10.2 10.3 10.3 Education & Scientific Serv. 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5v 3.5 3.7 4.0 Health 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 Social & Religious Serv. 0.4 0.4 O.L 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Defense, Justice, Security 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 Cultural & Recreational Serv. o.3 o.3 o.4 0.3 0.4 O.L 0.5 0.5 Gov. Organizational Serv. 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 Personal Services 8.9 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.3 Sub-total 3274 31.6 31.7 32.0 32.3 3-37 77 75 /1 1969/70 iource: Cormilation on the basis of data from the Central Agency for Public Miobilization and Statistics and the Ministry of Planning. Table 18: DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR AND BY OCCUPATION FOR CENSUS YEARS 1947 AND 1960 (- Tner cent) ECONOMIC SECTOR Occupational Group Agriculture Industry & Mining Construction Services Total Employment 1947 1960 1947 1960 1947 1960 1947 1960 1947 1960 Managers & Professionals (University & Higher Institute graduates) 04 1.9 7.6 8.0 3.2 5.1 88.8 84.5 (100.0) 1.1 2.4 Technicians (Agricultural & Ind&- l 0Utlual-y ou(i leavers) 7.0 3.9 11.8 2.3 0.4 0.4 80.8 92.9 (lOO.O) 1.5 2.6 Clerical occupat. (General & Commercial Secondary School leavers) 5.9 2.8 9.5 10.8 1.6 0.9 83.0 84.1 (100.0) 2.5 3.6 Skilled workers (preparatory school leavers or equivalent experience) 1.6 2.2 37.0 36.3 4.7 7.3 56.7 53.5 (100.0) 20.5 23.5 Unskilled (primary or no schooling) _ 77.6 80.3 2.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 18.9 17.6 (100.n 74.5 67.9 Total 58.7 55.1 9.6 10.0 1.9 2.2 29.8 32 6 (lOO.O) (100.0) Source: Census results, as analyzed in the proceedings of the Seminar on Manpower Planning, Cairo, February 1968, Institute of National Planning. Table 19 : GROWTH OF EMPLOYMT 196o/61 - 1967/68 (in percent) 1960/61-1964/65 1964/65-1967/68 1960/61-1967/68 Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Total Commodity Sector 12.8 3.1 1.3 0.3 14.3 1.9 Agriculture 5.0 1.2 4-° 1.3 9.2 1.3 Other (Industry, Mining, Electricity, Con- struction) 47.6 10.2 -7.7 -2.5 36.9 4.6 Total Services Sector 12.2 2.9 14.7 4.'? 28.7 3.7 GRAND TOTAL 12.6 3.1 5.6 1.8 18.9 2.5 Source: Comoilation on the basis of data from the Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics and from the Ministry of Planning. Table 20: YMSdPWEI. SUPPLY AND DEM2UD ESTIMATE3SL BY OCCUPATIOmAL GROUPS, FCR 1965/66 AND 1969/70 (in thousands) 1965/66 _ 1969/70 Occupation Supply Dfemand Balance Supply Demand Balance (Stock) (Requirements) (Stock) (Requirements) -lanagers and Professionals ,University & Higher Institute Graduates) 234 214 +20 312 316 -4 (302)2l (+lo)!/ Technicians (Agricultural and Tndustrial Secondary School leavers) 366 390 -24 480 559 -75 'lerical occupations (General S Comercial Secondary School leavers) 322 230 +92 365 302 +63 Skilled workers (preparatory school leavers or equivalent experience) 821 '975 -154 873 1,294 *-421 Unskilled workers (primary or no schooling) 6,"44 5,,97 +647 7,322 6,1O +-912 1/ 'he estimates were made in 1966 by the Institute of National Planning and, therefore, do not take into account educational reform measures affecting the supply of University and Higher Institute Graduates negatively, and the supply of technicians positively (see also table on enrollments). 2/ Estimates by Ministry of Planning. Source: Proceedings of the Seminars on Manpower Planning, Cairo, February 1968, Institute of National Planning. Table 21 : TOTAL WAGES BY SMCTOR 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 Growth Rates (%) (fLE million - Current Prices) 1960 61 - 66/67 Annual 1960/61 - 67/68 Annual Agriculture 99.0 117.0 126.3 139.3 165.8 197.1 206.0 205.6 108.0 13.0 107.6 11.0% Industry and Mining 78.4 90.1 125.1 138.1 149.6 154.2 155.2 166.2 97.9 12.1 111.9 11.3 Electricity 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.8 51.0 7.1 75.75 8.4 Construction 27.3 41.9 47.4 52.2 53.7 56.o 55.5 37.3 103.29 12.6 36.6 4.6 Total Commodity Sector 208.0 252.8 303.0 334.1 373.8 412.2 421.7 4114.9 102.74 12.5 99.47 10 Transport and Communication 43.3 46.7 48.8 55.7 64.3 73.8 75.7 82.3 74.82 9.7 90.0 9.6 Trade and Finance 76.9 82.1 88.9 96.4 101.7 106.4 110.5 120.2 43.7 6.2 56.3 6.6 Housing 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 5.5 0.9 11.1 1.5 Public Utilities 4.8 5.9 6.2 6.4 8.0 7.5 7.7 8.4 60.4 8.2 75.0 8.3 Other Services 231.7 228.9 258.2 298.0 341.7 377.4 395.2 421.9 70.56 9.3 82.08 8.9 Total Services Sector 358.5 365.5 403.7 458.1 517.4 566.9 591.0 634.8 64.8 8.6 77.07 8.5 GRAi; TurTAL 56o.5 o1o.3 (O6.( (72.2 6Y .z 1,012.7 1,049.7 78.76 10.1 85.2 9.2 Source: The Ministry of Planning. Table 22: WAI3E STRUCTURE BY SECTOR (In percent) 1960/61 1961/62 19364 1964/65 19 1966/67 19677M Aariculture 17.5 19,0 18.0 17.6 18.6 20.,1 20.3 19.6 Industry and Mining 13.9 ih.7 17.8 17.4 16.8 15.7 15.3 15.8 Electricity o.6 o.6 o.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0-5 Construction h.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.5 3.6 Total Commodity Sector 36 41.1 42.1 h2.0 h2.0 139.6 Transport and CoTmunication 7.6 7.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.8 Trade and Finance 13.5 13.3 12.6 12.2 11.4 10.9 10.9 11.4 Housing 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Public Utilities 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Other Services 41.0 36.3 36.6 37.8 38.h 38.5 39.0 40.1 Total Services Sector 63.2 5, 5 772 7 7T 5 57. 9 7 .3 GRAND TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -:Oo.O 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Compilation on the basis of data from the Centr-al Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and frcm the Ministry of Planning. Table 23: GROWTH OF EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, GDP (in %, based on current prices) 1960/61-1961/62 1961/62-1962/63 1962/63-1963/64 1963/64-1964/65 1964/65-1965/66 1965/66-1966/67 1966/67-1967/68 E/1 W/2 GDP E W GDP E W GDP E W GDP E W GDP E W GDP E W Agriculture 0.0 18.1 -7.4 0.8 7.9 14.0 1.1 10.3 11.7 2.9 19.0 22.5 0.4 18.9 4.5 0.5 4.5 0.4 3.0 0.2 Industry and Mining 8.5 14.9 8.5 6.9 38.8 13.2 8.7 10.4 11.8 4.4 8.3 7.9 6.2 3.1 8.9 -3.0 o.6 3.5 2.0 7.0 Electricity 15.2 15.0 33.6 15.2 10.5 12.8 2.8 7.1 4.8 0.5 4.4 20.2 2.2 4.2 4.7 3.2 2.0 3.7 4.2 16.0 Construction 58.4 53.4 66.5 20.0 13.1 13.4 5.8 10.1 14.9 3.3 2.3 -3.5 -15.5 4.2 2.5 9.4 -8.9 -0.6 -32.3 -32.7 Total Commodity Sector 3.5 21.5 3.8 2.9 19.8 13.6 2.6 10.3 11.9 3.2 11.9 14.1 0.3 10.3 6.o 4.1 2.3 1.6 0.6 -1.6 Transport & Communication -5.3 7.8 14.3 4.1 4.4 13.5 3.6 14.1 17.7 7.5 15.4 12.6 12.8 14.8 11.7 5.9 2.6 4.2 1.4 8.7 Trade and Finance 2.7 6.7 4.4 3.1 8.3 1.5 2.4 8.4 4.2 1.5 5.4 4.6 4.5 4.6 8.o 2.8 3.8 7.9 1.8 8.7 Housing 12.5 5.5 3.2 0.5 -15.7 1.8 2.2 0.0 1.4 13.5 12.5 -4.8 3.3 0.0 1.6 4.6 5.5 3.8 4.4 5.0 Public Utilities 11.5 22.9 2.9 5.9 5.0 5.7 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.7 25.0 5.2 3.6 -6.3 12.1 2.5 2.7 2.1 3.1 9.0 Other Services -1.45-12.1 -1.5 3.9 12.8 9.2 5.6 15.4 13.0 4.9 14.6 17.0 5.1 10.4 10.5 6.1 4.7 5.4 4.2 6.7 Total Services Sector -0.4 19.5 3.2 3.7 10.4 7.3 4.3 13.5 10.5 4.2 12.9 11.1 5.8 9.6 9.5 5.0 4.2 5.5 3.1 7.4 GRAND TOTAL 2.2 9.1 3.5 3.2 14.3 10.7 3.2 12.1 11.3 3.5 12.5 12.8 2.1 9.9 7.5 2.0 3.4 3.3 1.5 3.7 /1 Employment 72 Wages Source: Compilation on the basis of data from the Central Agency for PIublic Mobilization and Statistics and from the Ministry of Planning. Table 24: CIVIL SERVJ:CE PAY SCALES - APPLIED SINCE 1964 - Educational Attainment Grade Salary Range Annual increase (monthly basis (E E) S E) University or Higher Institute 7 (starting 20-40 1.50 (16 years of education) gTade) 6 27.5-50 1.50 S 35-60 2.00 4 45-h80 3.00 3 57.5-100 4.00 Technical Training Centers (14 years of education)l (18)1/ Agricultural or industrial second- ary school (12 years of education) 8 15-30 1.00 General or Cosnmercial Secondary School (12 years of education) 9 12-15 0.75 Preparatory School (9 years of education) 10 9-18 0.75 Primary School (6 years of educ- ation) 11/12 7-15 0.50 1/ This type of school (with a 2-year course following Secondary education, and a 5-year course following preparatory education) was introduced in 1965/66. Source: Proceedings of the Seminar on Manpower Planning, Cairo, February 1968, Institute of National Planning;. Table 25 TOTAL ENROLLMNTS IN PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS AND PRIMARY TEACHER TRAINING 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 Nursery Schools 24,007 23,893 26,648 28,728 25,403 PRIMARY: Primary 2,610,169 2,754,566 2,909,996 3,129,692 3,294,832 3,417,753 3,413,980 3,471,334 Language Schools 44,589 39,906 40,663 40,209 3,298 Al-Azhar 28,997 18,033 32,585 31,395 31,797 TOTAL 3,203,278 3,352,771 3,491,001 3,485,584 3,506,429 PREPARATORY General: Preparatory 255,832 303,123 350,661 406,043 474,266 574,420 665,321 736,695 Language Schools 14,977 14,838 13,331 13,603 758 Al-Azhar 22,301 23,219 23,636 21,438 19,656 TOTAL 443,321 512,323 611,387 700,362 757,109 PREPARATORY Technical: Preparatory 39,333 42,068 49,667 45,019 41,55911 26,530a1 16,6761/ 7,91911 Vocational (language schools) 2,410 2,016 1,842 1,697 1,643 TOTAL 47,429 53,575 28,372 18,373 9,562 TOTAL Preparatory 295,165 490,750 565,898 639,759 718,735 766,671 SECONDARY General: Secondary 132,161 131,885 134,047 141,204 174,246 208,991 234,619 259,792 Language Schools 7,318 6,521 7,945 10,120 466 Al-Azhar 12,358 12,643 13,376 13,481 14,453 TOTAL 150,880 193,410 230,312 258,220 274,711 SECONDARY Technical : TOTAL 75,549 74,037 79,639 83,373 91,252 101,204 119,810 153,094 TOTAL Secondary: 207,710 205,922 213,686 234,253 284,662 331,516 378,030 427,805 TEACHER Training (Primary Schools) 18,218 20,354 23,141 34,704 41,259 49,448 42,549 34,894 1/ Schools are being closed in favor of General Preparatory Schools. Source: A Guide for Educational Statistics, UAR, Ministry of Education, Department of Statistics; vols 1963/64-1967/68; Statistical Handbook, UAR, 1952-1967, Cairo, June 1968; the Ministry of Education. Table 26: TOTAL ENROLLMENTS IN HIGHER INSTITUTES AND UNIVERSITIES 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 Higher Institutes: Agricultural I 2,308 5,519 6,590 6,903 6,349 6,840 5,885 5,678 7,179 Industrial Institutes 1,761 2,626 3,358 4,248 5,363 6,892 7,427 8,299 9,626 Otherl/ 11,451 12,190 12,550 13,992 19,081 21,622 18,222 18,469 17,5705' Tota 2/ 15,520 20,335 22,498 25,143 30,793 35,354 31,534 32,446 34,3750/ Universities: -gricul5tal Fnc1utiUn o,543 7.618 o,752 10,748 12,233 13,206 12,318 11,162 11,789 Science Faculties 5,058 5,925 6,675 7,529 8,419 8,883 7,152 6,171 5,929 Engineering Faculties 11,306 13,140 14,500 17,022 19,647 20,434 20,810 21,229 19,885 Other2/ 64,073 64,680 68,ooo 75,122 89,oo6 80,642 87,862 86,087 85,250 Total Government operated Faculties 86,980 91,363 97,927 110,421 129,305 123,165 128,142 124,649 122,853 Al-Azhar: Agricultural Faculties - - - - 180 499 870 1,490 Engineering Faculties - - - - 276 692 1,180 1,772 Other4/ 5,753 6,108 7,428 6,851 8,309 11,932 16,214 13,590 Grand Total 92,733 97,471 105,355 117,009 138,070 136,288 146,406 141,501 1/ As of 196L/65 including JAmerican University. 2/ Including Secondary Teacher Training until 1965/66. Enrollment figures are 1960/61 : 2633; 61/62 2775; 63/64 : 3167; 64/65 : 3317; 65/66 : 3347. Including Higher Technical Institutes not belonging to Ministry of Higher Education. / Including Secondary Teacher Training as of 1966/67 : 5140; 67/68 : 5691; 68/69 : 7908. Includes faculties of arts, law, commerce, economics, medicine, pharmacy, dentistry, veterinary science, girls education, nursing, education (at Ain Shaim) and faculty at Dar-El Ulum. 4/ Including faculty of medicine as of 1964/65. 5/ lxcluding Higher Technical Institutes not belonging to Ministry of Higher Education (i.e. approximately 2,500 students) Source: Guide for Educational Statistics, UAR, Ministry of Education, Department of Statistics, vols. 1963/64 - 1967/68 Statistical Handbook, UAR, 1952-1967, Cairo, June 1968 ; the Ministry of Higher Education. Table 27: FI-R.3T 'AR ENMR0LLiMNa /I 196?/63 1963/64 1964/63 1965/66 1966/67 1967/66 1968/69 Level of Education Primary 612001 640653 670250 625615 896000 Preparatory General 142000 174502 210000 223100 300276 Preparatory Techriical 957? 9075 2297 2173 1941 Total Preparatorv 15157? 183577 912297 22.5273 302217 Secondary General 48552 61557 66827 68260 93816 Secondary Technical ?6319 30352 34122 4531? 619?9 Total Secondary 74871 91909 100949 113572 173687 Primary Teacher Training 15556 11695 11926 2053 3426 Higher Institutes: Total /3 5146 6844 8219 9956 5798/? 7444/2 9871 /2, /4 Agriculture 1241 )ll 7 1505 1838 628 2776 Industry 926 1282 1576 ?248 1448 1916 2477 Other /3 2943 4065 5138 5870 37?5/? 4276/2 4618/2, /4 Universities: Total 24500 27750 25850 26250 21370/2 21530/2 22430/2 Agriculture 2320 3700 1990 192.0 Engineering 2870 3970 3370 3220 Science 1600 2900 600 550 Other 17710 17180 15410/2 15840/2 /1 Excluding Al-Azhar and Language schools. /2 Teacher Trs?nlng was tra-,iaieried Du un-lver-; sties ao 19366fr7. 73 Including Hil-2Er T'echnical Institutes not belonging to Rinistry of Higher Education; including American University. T tSbCcluding Higher Technical Institutes not belonging to Mifinistry of Higher Education (about 650 first year enrollments), Sources: A Guide for daucational Statistics, TJAU, PLinistry of Education, Department of 5tatistics, Vols. 1963/64 - 1967/68; Statistical Handbook, UAR, 1952-1967, 'airo, 1968; the Ministry of Higher Education ana tne Hnisstry of Planning. Table 28: DISTRIBUTION OF ENROLLMNTS IN HIGHER INSTITUTES AND UNIVERSITIES BY FIELD OF STUDY (in percent) 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/6/ 1967/685/ 1968/695/6 Higher Institutes: Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture 14.9 27.1 29.3 27.4 20.6 19.3 18.7 (16.0) 17.5 (14-9) 20.9 (17.0) Industray 11.3 12.9 14.9 16.9 17.4 19.5 23.5 (20.3) 25.6 (21.8) 28.0 (22.8) Other2/ 73.8 60.0 55.8 55.7 62.0 61.2 57.8 (63.7) 56.9 (63.3) 51.1 (60.2) Universities:4/ Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture 7.0 7.8 8.3 9.2 9.0 10.0 9.0 ( 9-3) 8.9 ( 9.3) 9.6 (10.2) Engineering 12.2 13.4 13.7 14.5 14.4 15.5 15.0 (15.5) 16.3 (16.9) 16.2 (17.2) Science 5.5 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.5 4.9 ( 5.1) 4.4 ( 4-5) 4.8 ( 5.1) Other-' 75.3 72.7 71.7 70.9 71.5 68.o 71.7 (70.1) 70.4 (69.3) 69.4 (67-5) 1/ See Table on Total Enrollments in Higher Institutes and Universities. 2/ Ibid. I/ Ibid. / Including Al-Azhar University. 5/ Figures in brackets are corrected for the effects of transfer of Secondary Teacher Training from Higher Institutes to Universities. For correction base see footnote 3/ of Table on Total Enrollments in Higher Institutes aid Universitiue (Table 28). 6/ Excluding Al-Azhar University. Source: Compilation on the basis of data from the Ministry of Education and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. Table 29: AREAS UN1ER CROPS BY SEASON, 1952 AND 1960-1968 Crops 1952 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 :965 1966 1967 1968 . ............. . . . . .............. ,1,000 Feddans ........... . . . . ...... Winter Crops Wheat 1,402 1,456 1,384 1,455 1,345 1,295 1,145 1,291 1,245 1,413 Permanent clover 906 1,131 1,113 1,140 1,132 1,179 1,178 1,235 1,474 1,500 Temporary clover 1,296 1,283 1,335 1,302 1,302 1,301 1,315 1,297 1,242 1,179 Beans 355 377 361 383 382 428 433 318 336 335 Barley 137 148 121 131 121 1?1 125 98 107 117 Fenugreek 54 64 44 60 66 62 82 42 38 35 Lentils 58 85 63 79 78 79 89 75 66 51 Flax 13 22 29 27 26 33 26 22 24 36 Onions 26 49 28 50 59 54 51 58 42 39 Lapines 11 20 14 18 19 19 16 11 11 11 Chickpeas 15 15 7 10 1? 14 12 8 11 10 Vegetables 63 126 133 134 137 141 144 147 148 172 Garlic 9 13 12 14 20 13 15 19 13 12 Others 19 19 19 19 18 19 23 18 19 19 Total 4,364 4,808 4,693/1 4,822 4,717 4,758 4,624L/ 4,739/1 4,776 4,929 Sumner Crops .otton 1,967 1,873 1,986 1,657 1,627 1,611 1,900 1,859 1,626 1,464 Rice 362 695 527 823 952 955 842 841 1,079 1,199 Millet 378 387 418 398 434 432 441 463 482 486 Miaize 27 128 170 348 347 365 931 1,053 1,095 1,169 bagarcane 92 111 112 121 133 134 129 133 137 135 Groundnuts 26 41 33 53 53 50 54 49 41 42 Sesame 42 42 27 42 59 55 52 29 9 24 Vegetables 118 241 239 249 278 292 304 325 325 342 Others 14 15 15 12 17 22 44 42 57 64 Total 3,026 3,533 3,527 3,703 3,900 3,916 4,697 4,794 4,857 4,942/1 Nile Crops Maize 1,671 1,693 1,433 1,484 1,374 1,295 520 522 390 358 Mlllet 55 67 39 56 50 62 59 55 40 46 Pice 12 11 10 1 1 1 6 3 3 5 Vegetables 71 117 123 138 149 16? L60 162 155 182 Others 9 10 11 10 8 10 17 18 34 27 Total 1,824 1,898 1,616 1,695L 1,588/1 1,536/1 762 760 622 645 /1 Figures do not add to this total. 72 Preliminary Source: U A.R., Ministry of Irrigation, Resort on Draina2e Pro.ject For Part of the Nil& Deta Viol. 1, September, 1968. Ministry of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, unpub .is e Table 30 0R0iP?1D 31WL BY C"Ab,l, AIND GROdiTil R.LTY; TI1 Cjj;R(l;- Atllf (In '<''riou sand 1. edcian) ea r Jil t : V I; To t>a1 1960 1 Jt3,,3 3 1, 8 9L 10, 3'73 1961 4.,693 ,?,97 1,16 37 9,973 1962 11,&22 i,703 1 ,69 196tl3 4 .,717 ,,-D O 1 , b ; 13? 1(),3 51 1964 4,7111 1,53 167 1,377 19365 4,6 I9l 760 17 10,37761 1966 4,739 4, 89!4 760 195 10,488 19s7 4,776 4,857 63° 207 10,462 1968 Growth rate /1 o.06 >.G - 13.5 7.( 0.4 /L 'ercent Anniual Coompounci c I a+ (T) .-xczrcc: IJ.A.H., ;lnistry o_ I-ri-Cation, e2orLt on 3 :O iroject ?or Par8 of' the Nile 1-Ita, Vol. 1, 'e9tetber, 1968. .N Table 31: EDa-ANSION 0' CROPPED AREA THROUGH LAND DEVELOPMEIN PROGRAMS CONTE PLATED ThROUGH 1975 (Thousand Feddans) As of End As of End 1967 1968 through 1975 1975 Cultivated area 5,800 /1 Cropped area 10,462 X2 10.,462 Increment Through Reclamation Gross cultivated area 700 /3 Adjusted for yield capacity L.55 A Adjusted for "Cropped Area Equivalentt" 728 /5 Through Conversion Gross 2.86 Adjusted to"Cropped Area Equivalent" 112 / Through Drainage Gross 9)20 Cropped Area Equivalent 368 f6 TOTAL 11,670 /1 F'romr U0A.R., Ministry of Irrigation, Report on Irainage Project For Part of the iJile Delta, Vol. 1, September, 1968. /9 Assunes cropping factor of 1.8 applied to net. 7 Assumes 50,000 in 1968, as is scheduled for 19(9, plus 564,o0o. Plus 46,000 as an arbitrary figure for areas not associated with Aswan water. /A Timle is requ.red to bring new land up to a yiell level approximating the national average. Assune that in Year 1, the y-ear of reclanation, the yield is zero; Year 2, 25%$ of "normal"; Year 3, 50$; Year 4, 7,5); Year 5, 100%. Applying these factors to the pre-1968 reclamation acreages and to the 1968-75 intent ,,rields a correction factor of aroundl 65jr,, ( Using cropping factor of 1.6, as is on gross basis. , Assuming yield increase of 2570' and cropping of 1.6. Table 32: GROWTH PATES 1f YSLD PE,R FEDDAN FOR TMPO)RTAXjT CROPS Crop 1960 1961 196? 1963 1964 1.965 1966 1967 1968 Growth Rate /1 . o a . . o . & a . o . Yield Per Feddan (Kilograms) . . . . . . Seed Cotton 737 502 806 806 891 791 693 7h3 822 0.9 to - 0004 /3 Rice (Paddy) 2,107 2,126 2,457 2,315 2,111 ?,107 1,984 ?,117 -0.4 Maize 1,330 1,379 1,338 1,506 1,495 1,690 1,659 1,636 i.6 Millet 928 1,009 1,093 1,o85 1,165 1,476 1,509 1,4!06 3.0 Sugarcane 40,950 37,575 39,690 38,745 36,450 36,810 39,060 3S,475 -0.3 Groundnuts 825 746 939 847 918 926 826 78? 0.1 Sesame 361 390 408 433 424 433 384 344 -0.1 Wheat 1,029 1,035 1,095 1,110 1,180 1,115 1,135/2 1,126 1,074 0.4t Be a.s 501 )iQfl,n 5 732 896 886 956 628 922 1.2 to 0 /3 Barley 1,048 1,096 1,1]18 1,112 1,165 1,038 1,042 929 -097 Fenugreek 685 591 739 702 748 735 735 657 O.4 Lentil 588 542 706 602 666 688 594 515 664 0.1 Flaxseed 410 407 412 415 426 4o0 400 382 -0.3 Lupine 646 642 666 694 717 724 688 638 0,3 Chickpeas 693 645 648 708 706 698 669 645 -0,1 Garlic 4,680 5,070 4,960 5,850 5,270 5,530 6,270 5,740 1.4 Clover Seed 200 186 205 21? 205 212 ?14 220 0,7 /1 Using :og Y = a + bT. Includes 1968 if yield figure is shown for that year. 7T Carried in error as 757 in the cited source. 7r The higher figure results if the bad crop of 1961 is included! the lower fgtire results if the series excludes 1961. Source of Yield Data: For 1960-67, U,A.R.R, inist ry of Irrigation, Report on Dhrainage Project For Part of the Nile Delta, Vol. 1, September, 1968. For 1968, IMinistry of Agriculture, tentative and unpubli.shed. Table 33: ALTERNATIVE INDICATIONS OF GROWTH RATES IN YIELDS PER ACRE FOR MAJOR FARM CROPS Series A /1 /2 Series B /3 Series C /1 /L 1948-69 Column to Left 1960-68 Growth Rate Yield in 1967 Annual Ave. Growth Growth Rate % Compound Annual as % of 1952 % /Compound % Compound Annual Cotton 1.8 Wheat 2.7 133.5 1.9 o.l Rice 5.2 166.9 3.5 - O.lq Maize 1.8 16L.8 3.1h 1.6 Peanuts 1.4 Unginned Cotton 117.4 1.1 0.9 to - O.0b /5 Millet 190.b 4.4 3.0 Beans 89.1 1.2 to O /5 /1 Using log Y A + b (T) when Y = yield and T = time. 72 US Department of Agriculture, E.R.S., Agricultural Development and Expansion in the Nile Basin, Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No. L8, 1968. /3 Sayed Marei, Food Production in Developing Countries: Its Problems, Prosnects and Means with Reference to the Egyptian Experiment in Agriculture, mimeographed, un- dated, Cairo. /A Computed from data presented in Table 32. 74 The higher figure is derived from a series which includes the bad crops of 1961; the lower figure from a series which excludes 1961. I (I Table 34: OUTPUT OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS (EXCLUDIDG LIVEFSTOxK) 1952 2nd 1960'f - 1968 (in thousand metric tons) Pee 1 Crop 1952 1960 1961 1962 1963 1965 1966 1967 l67 Cotton Seed cotton 1,296 1,380 999 1,335 1,312 1,1436 1,501 1,289 1,208 1,203 Cotton lint 4Ku6 L78 336 157 !Ll2 50L4 8?1 >55 637 >30 Cereals Maize 1,506 1,691 1,617 2,00 1,867 1,93u 2,lh-l 2,376 2,163 2,298 Millet 522 603 631 659 729 7Lo 806 859 881 960 Wheat 1,081 1,499 1, 036 1,593 1,693 1, L99 1,272 1,L665 1,291 1,518 Rice (Paddy) 517 1,1586 1,1h 2 2,J38 2,219 2,036 1,78P 1,679 2,279 2,586 Barley 118 156 133 166 131! 161 130 102 100 122 Pulses Beans 250 290 161 328 263 366 36L 381 188 Lentils 32 50 34 56 17 52 61 311 Fenugreek 36 63 211 L6 42 L2 37 30 21 Lupines 6 13 9 12 13 13 ]2 7 Chickpeas 9 11 5 7 8 10 9 6 Vegetables Onion 243 504 1,65 600 659 646 670 701 58 7 Other 1, 83L 3,1621 3,571 3,919 6,320 6,378 6,,636 h, 028 ,505 Fruits Oranges 210 15 2c30 33 331 3>2 >32 Mandarines & Limes 101 79 117 101 141 1L1 1V1 Grapes 102 106 120 106 91 92 118 Mangos 63 L8 86 91 97 79 90 continued .. . Table 34: OUTPUT OF IKAJOR AGRIGUL1URA.iL PHODUCTS (rXOJ DTNG LIVESTOCK) 1952 and 1960 - 1968 (concluded) Page 2 Crop 1952 1960 1961 1962 1963 196) 1965 1966 1967 1968/1 Oils Groundnuts 20 35 25 1h9 l! 46 50 LO 32 36 Sesame 1il 15 11 17 26 23 22 11 7 10 Flax (seed) 5 9 12 11 11 1T 10 9 9 1)-V Flax (fiber) 26 53 64 64 61 7)4 58 51 83 Cottonseed 8)2 888 658 857 858 912 961 820 758 760 Sugarcane 3,258 4,545 4,186 4,808 5,153 )4,890 b,739 5,189 5,269 Clover Seed 36 9_ 39 33 27 27 28 3U 31 3I4 /1 Preliminary Note: Alternative series are not always in agreement with these data Source: IBRD, Projects Department, Middle East Studies: U.A.R. Findings on Agricultural Sector, 1968 Mission, July 19, 1968; Ministry of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, unpublished. Table 35: DISTRIBUTION OF FAREN HOLDIiQS BY SIZE AND TENT'RE IN 1961 Farm iIolding3 /1 Item and Unit Owned -tented MiLxed Total Number of holdings (Thoousand) 623 594 495 1,6l96? Area of Holding (Thousand Feddans) 2,664 1,214 2,30W 6,922 Nlumber in /Z of Tot"al (%) 38 32 30 100 Area in ' of Total (,/0) 43 19 38 100 Average size of holding (Feddan) 4.3 2.3 4.7 3.8 /1 Fianagement units. Source: U.A.Ro, lainistry of Irrigation, Repor on Drainage Pro For Part of the Nile Del-'ca, Vol. 1, September, 1965. Table 36: CRS5]DIT ISSUIPD TO PAWPERS BY TIE EGYPTIAN GEMPERL ( GPAd'I2'ATI IT (C AG-IaCULTURA!, Ai)D C00P.ERIATIVL . -iZDIT, 1957 'TO0 19%7 (1-_Ei Thousanc1) Loans in Kiiid Loans in Total YnJL Year "eeds Fertilizers Irnsectici-3es Cash Total R.eal Terms 1957 1,436 6,963 /2 11,606 90,205 20,2905 1958 1,383 8,283 /2 -L,809 I 4,475 24,475 1959 1,602 10,273 7 17,536 29,413 29,13 1960 1,981 12,608 1,190 20,899 36,678 36,678 1961 2,356 14L,750 1,700 ?o,641 39,447 39,447 196? 3,236 21,136 t6,941 29,655 60,968 60,968 196? -63 53,995 /3 53,995 1963-64 59 553 7T 58,731 1964-65 655,465 60,560 1965-66 79.,628 68,116 1966-67 86,926 69,464 1967-68 /1 Pdid-year wholesale industrial price index used as deflauor. 72 Included in cash. 7T Of this, 51,860 was classed as short-term; 2,10? as mediwu term; and 33 as long- term. Source: FAkG/IBR)D Cooperative Programa, Draft Reort on Agriculture and Irrigation in the United Arab Republic, 17 July, 1968 /4 Of t-his, 56,400 was classed as short-term; and 3,153 as medium term. 'burce: FAO/IBRID Cooperative Program, Ž'aeft Report on Agriiculture and Irrigation in the United Arab Republic, 17 JulY, 1962. Source: For 1957-1962, U.S. Departiment of Agriculture, EOR.S., Agricultural Development and axpansion in the Nile Basin, Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No. 48. For 1967-63 to 1966-67, U.A.Ro I3Linist-rlr of irrigation, Report on Drainage Project for Part of the Nlile Dalta, Vol. 1, September, 196l. Table 37: INDICATIVE COSTS OF LAND RLECLJC<ION AND DEV3]oIPIENT Item _ .E.o per Feddan Preparatory Research 10 Roads and m ectricity 110 Irrigation and Drainage /1 110 Othler construction (including housing) /2 110 Farm development /3 Machinery 35 Losses 70 Total Above (435) I-igh Dan 65 TOTAL 52C /4 /1 Includes on-farm distribution system. 7 In addition to housing for both adiTnistrators and farmers, irLcludes po-table water, hos-pitals, schools anLd social centers. /3 These outlays are required to brin- soil )roductivity up to a level at which the market value of production equals current farm expenditures. A t The total varies up to 90% plus or minus. Source: Ministry of Rteclanation. Table 38: PRODUCTION AND USES OF COTTON Exports and Local Factory Consumxtion Production Consumption Consuxption Year Ended Percentage of Production Year Ended as Percentage October 31 Total Production Extra Long Medium Long lHedium August 31 Exports Consumption o ('000 Tons) (Y ('000 Tons) ('000 Tons) (M) 1950 381.9 33.7 12.4 44.5 1951 288.7 60.7 21.0 1951 362.8 38.6 15.4 43.1 1952 261.5 65,4 25,o 1975 44508 45.0 13 4 39 5 1953 319.0 6&o7 2'I, 1953 318.2 34.6 27.3 35.8 1954 324e5 73o? 2206 1954 348.0 33.1 25.6 39.0 1955 247.1 32.5 1955 334.1 35.8 18.8 42.9 1956 292a5 I7.1 29.8 1956 324.8 41.0 18.2 38.5 1957 230.9 90.7 39,3 1957 405,3 45.3 12.7 39.8 1958 254.5 97.4 38.3 1958 445.9 58.6 7.8 31,3 1959 327.3 106.2 32.4 1959 457.2 51.1 15,0 31,8 1960 381.8 109,4L 2857 1960 478.2 47.4 22.2 28.5 1962. 337.0 1?1.3 36.0 1961 335.7 41.2 24.7 31.7 1962 ??9,4 135.2 5809 1962 457.) 50.3 22.5 25,7 1963 303.0 135.5 44.7 1963 441.7 46.6 22,9 28,9 19614 291,8 139.3 47,7 1964 504.1 45.8 24.5 28.1 1965 312.2 153.0 4-L7 1965 520,1 43.4 25.9 29.1 1966 ____7 16098 470 1966 454.9 40 21,3 36.5 1967 302.2 175.8 58,2 1967 436,6 38&1 24.7 35.2 Source: Central Agencv for Public I4obi.lIzation and Statistics. Table 39 : FOOD CONSUMPTIO1N PER CAPITA PER DAY BY CONMDITY GROUP IN SELECTED RECENT YEARS 1950-51 /1 1955-56 /1 1965-66 /2 Group Grams Grams Grams Cereals 469 510 551 Other Starch Foods 19 18 30 Sugar and Syrups 40 48 54 Pulses, Nuts, Seeds 27 32 34 Vegetables (fresh) 9)4 178 2)47 Fruits 91 180 138 Meats 25 37 29 Eggs 2 3 4 Fish 10 17 9 Milk & Milk Products 165 162 1?2 Vegetable Oils 10 11 19 /1 Source I U.AORo, The Journal of the EgYPtian Public Ilealti Association, Vol. ZXXV, No. 3, 1960 (Inail Abdou, Nutrition Problems in the Egyptian Region). /2 Source IIinistry of Agriculture, Food Balance Sheet 1965-.966, April, 1968. Table 40: INDOETRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX NUMTBERS (19159 = 100) T1 SIC Econcmic Acti Lities 1961 1961 1962 1963 lSt, 1965 1966 1967 Mining and quarrying 107.5 1285 6 139 .2 172.l 271 >8 213 It 2'85. 229. 6 12 Metal mining 99.2 TT7IT 130.0 11111. `126 105.6 91.7 13 Cmrde petroleum & Natural Gas 106.1 12i. 2 1l,7.1) 191.7 21J.7 228.,6 267.8 2)i6.2) 164 Stone quarrying, clay & sand pits 110.6 IlL.7 132.8 136.5 159.8 171.1 187.1 200.3 15 Salt mining 130.7 95.6 94.5 1161.5 172.6 157.0 170.8 192.6 19 Other Non-metallic mining & quarrying 106.3 189.8 123.4 96.5 162.1 284.2 232.7 256.8 2-3 Manufacturing Industries 116.1 166t .3 176,.2 228.9 261.6 276.6 26L.9 2Lb9. 9 20 Food, Manuf.Industries 837.7 117 TT77 T3.9 129.t 138.0C 119.9 120.2 21 Beverage Industries 95.5 125.2 137.0 167.3 169.2 204.9 230.1 182.1 22 Tobacco Industries 112.1 125.8 1h7.1 158.5 17L. 191 .6 201.1 211.0 2 3 Spinning & Weaving 125. 5 1LO.5 166.6 1111.8 169.2 162.3 159.3 1 65.6 21 Industries Manuf. of Foot wear, Other Wearing apparel & made up textile goods 108.95 209.2 251.9 2511.7 262.2 300.1 279.8 278.1 25 Wood, rattan bamboo & cork 114.9 308.6 323.6 576.9 1267.2 1137.5 992.3 610.f6 26 Furniture and Fixtu'res 93.8 71.6 90.9 105.8 106.9 114.1 119.-6 103. 3 27 Paper and articles of paper 110.6 1614.1 612.06 1!39.7 516.):. 561.2 61L.6 562.1 28 Printing & allied Industries 103.1 121.9 159.11 293.8 281.3 268.8 21!0.6 159.1 29 Leather & leather products 100.5 94.5 145.2 1)66.3 161.61 202.6 210.9 215.f6 30 Rubber products 109.7 139.8 153.2 190.1 18o.1 180.9 169.1 168.5 31 Chemicals & chemical 123.3 183.9 l66.2 25b.3 3214.0 L!10.7 b 55.2 387.3 products 32 Product of petroleur. & coal 122.1 136.6 138.2 1616.6 218.9 165.1 167.0 162.) 33 f4anuf. of non-metallic mineral prodcctJs 88.6 117.6 131,.3 176.0 15L.5 173.2 213.8 183.6 314 Basic metal industries 159.8 222.7 258.8 273.9 273.2 270.6 364.5 295.9) 35 Metal products 91.2 117.3 135.0 16O.6 153.3 190.1 216.2 2516. 36 Manuf. & Rep. of non- electrical machines 275.3 412.3 769.4 1603.6 146c6.8 13946.4 1079.9 1187.2 37 Manuf. & Rep. of electrical machines 129.1 2619.3 302,6 585.2 739.0 686.6 699.5 703.0 38 Transport equipment & supplies 158.8 2h 1.5 619.6 669.8 815.8 711.0 6614.6 6ll.6 39 Manuf. Industries not else- where classified 112.7 154.0 395.7 4916.9 858..5 983.3 980.3 732.8 Electricity, Gas, Water & Sani- tary Services 126.1 170.)J 193.4 209.8 2LO.3 257.6 277.3 282.8 51 Electricity, Gas & Steam Production & distribution 1261.1 17 0.4 193.4 209.3 260.3 257 .6 277.3 282.3 General Total 116.2 165.4 173.6 226.2 260.8 271.2 262.9 248.9 Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statis-Lics Table 41h TIHE VALUE OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT (SE million - At Current Prices) Sector 1952 1960 1965 1966 1967 Petroleum Industries 34.2 66.4 101.1 103.2 99.7 IPdining 3a6 7.5 10.9 12.1 11.9 Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 20.5 49.1 140.0 142.2 139.1 Food Industries 122.3 177.1 285.4 308.7 342.5 Engineering & Electric Industries 30.1 80.9 160o0 155.6 150.0 Building Material Industries 8.4 20O0 30.8 34.6 29.3 Spinning &- Weaving Industries 84.6 230.5 357.8 ,83.4 389.1 Electric Energy 10.1 29.4 54.7 48.4 60.1 TOTAL 313.8 660.9 1140.7 1].88.2 1221.7 Note: The table does not include the production of Government factories, military factories (military production), cotton ginning, flour mLills and bakeries, tea packing, printing and publication. Source: Central Agency for Public M4obilization & Statistics Table 42: Ź--1CTIUCITY 1960/61 - 1967/68 teax Installed Power Mel. Net Generated Energy Net Peak _ _ _ _illion I.W.H. Load Hydraulic Thenaal Tctt,al Rydraulic Thermal Total IK,W0 1960/61 345 1219 1iL 627 2504 3131 641 1961/62 345 130C 1653, 1083 2779 3862 680 1962/63 345 1308 l61t3 1115 3065 4180 750 1963/64 345 1308 1653 1446 3317 4763 822 1964/65 345 1283 1628 1606 3560 5166 854 1965/66 345 148? 13:27 1773 3904 5677 931 1966/67 345 1554 1399 1806 4154 5960 945 1967/68 1045 1701 27,46 2446 3753 6190 1000 Note: 1) Data of yrear 1967/68, estimated regardina Met Peak Load, and includes IHigh Dxi. Electric 'Power. 2) The above mentioned data include Power stations belongming to The General Electricity Corporation, Industrial 1,irms mnd Municipal Boards. Source: The Ministr of Economr and Foreign Trade Table 43: PRODUCTION, EXPORTS, A1ID IIPORTS OF COTTON YARN (In Thousand Tons) Year Production Exports Imports Local Consumption Average 1950/51 - 1954/55 7.7 0.1 Average 1955/56 - 1959/60 12.0 0.1 1960/61 102.0 19.4 - 82.6 1961/62 U11.0 21.1 - 89.9 1962/63 121.0 20.8 _ 100.2 1963/64 123.0 31.6 - 91.4 1964/65 131.0 33.1 - 97.9 Average 1960/61 - 1964/65 117.6 25.? - 92.4 1965/66 139.0 40.0 - 99.0 1966/67 148.0 42.4 - 105.6 Source: The Ministry of Planning Table44 : PRODUCTIONT, EKORTS AND I1I0RTS OF COTION FABRICS (In Thousand Tons) Year Production Exports Imports Local Constuption Average 1950/5L. - 1.1 2.3 Average 1955/59 -- 4.4 0.2 1960/61 64.0 11.9 L. 1. 53,?'? 1961/62 73.0 J3.8 2.9 62,,1 1962/63 79.0 13.3 0. 2 65 .9 1963/64 80.0 14.1 0.? 66.1 19614/65 8.0 ]14 -- 73.6 Average 1960/61 - 1964/65 76.8 13.5 009 64.2 1965/66 80.0 12.2 -- 67.8 1966/67 85.0 17.1 -- 67.9 Source: The Ministry of Planning 4~ ~ ~ ~ ~~al 45 T,ablle 45$: PRODLUCTION AND OONSUM4?TION OF CO1MUERCIAL FERTILIZERS (in thouFand tons) 1955 1956 -1957 195- 1959 19-59-60 1960-61 1961-62 1969-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-65- P roduction Nitrogenous /1 244 590 76? 692 931 947 1,011 1,075 Pho sphatic /2 175 185 171 158 175 260 260 262 Consumnption Nitrogenous /1 734 655 849 836 993 1,100 1,_66 1,235 1,353 1,463 1,631 1,805 1,701 Phosphatic /5 137 157 177 177 175 210 218 249 257 268 °93 345 236 Fotassic /3 1.3 1 7 3.7 5.1 4.3 2.? 2.0 1.7 105 9.4 3e5 /1 15550 NT throug,h 1959-60, and 155 o th Uhereafter. 72 15% pVS D 4 8'5- K Source: I'iinistrr of Dricft>e, 3ureau of Agricultural Economics and Statistics. Table 46: PRODUCTION OF CHUDE OIL (Quantities in 1000 Tons) Year Sinai. Other Total Foreign Local Fields Share Share 1964/65 5,045 1,288 6,337 -- 6,337 1965/66 1, 896 1,540 6,436 -- 6,436 1966/67 4,406 1,933 6,339 220 6,117 1967/68 -- 5,701 iLO-l i,943 35758 1968/69 (estimate) -- 11,737 11,737 4,097 7,640 1969/70 (estimate) -- 14,99o 14,990 T,,320 5,670 1970/71 (estimate) 3,25C -22,430 25,630 8,400 17,230 1971/72 (estimate) 2 0 24,66o 276480 9,420 18,060 1972/73 (estimate) 2,37C 26,190 28,490 10,120 13,370 1973/74 (estimate) 2,00C 28,070 30,070 10,990 19,080 1974/75 (estimate) 1,730 33,940 35,670 13,490 22,180 Source: The General Organization for Petroleum Table 47: QUANTITY & VALUE OF LOCAL CONSUMPTION OF PETIWLEUX PRODUCTS (VALUED AT II'F'ORT PRICES) Production Year Quantity Value Quantity (1000 Tons) (1000 Pounds) (1000 Tons) 1964/65 5,548 42,143 7,842 1965/66 6,001 46,411 7,915 1966/67 6,674 51,842 8,106 1967/68 5,668 42,77? 5,o59/l 1963/69 (estimate) 5,999 48,432 6,643 1969/70 (estimate) 6,274 51,385 6,889 1970/71 (estimate) 7,725 51,506 8,027 1971/72 (estimate) 8,148 62,694 8,256 1972/73 (estimate) 8,595 65,920 8,939 1973/74 (estimate) 9,074 69,757 9,386 1974/75 (estimate) 9,584 73,641 9,794 /1 Including Aden. Source: The General Organization for Petroleum Table 48: TOURIST NIGHTS 1962 - JAN./NO-JV. 1968 (In thousands) YEAR ARABS EUUROPEANS AI'ERICANS OTEERS TOTAL 1962 1,96308 1,349.1 303j1 550-.' 4,166-5 1963 1,869.2 1,311.3 434.L 608.5 14,223,4 1964 3,856.2 1,986.2 426.0 755.9 7,024.3 1965 7,o67.7 2,327.7 394.9 610.5 10,400.8 1966 6.439.3 2*326.8 423.7 593.7 9,7831L 1967 3o959.6 1,597P.. 395.6 417 5 6,369,6 Jan/Sept 1968 2631.2 464.7 87.0 135.2 3,320.0 Jan/Nov 1968 4,0144.6 Source: The 1i;nitry of Tourism Table 49: CENTRAL GOVEBRIMNT - CURRIFk]T RFVENIUE (LE million) 1963/64 1564/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 Prov. Est. Tax Revenues 271.9 317.3 341.8 348.2 341.2 360.5 Taxes on immovable rproperty 7.6 6.7 7.1 8.7 11.0 18.9 Personal income taxes 14.5 16.9 18.4 21.2 21.6 26.2 Business Profit Taxes 32.8 53.8 70.5 88.9 68.3 67.7 Estate and Succession Duties 3.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 Excise and Consumption Duties 4l9.6 48.5 45.9 44.4 51.1 49.3 u,ustom Duties 144.3 164.5 172.2 154.2 144.5 151.2 Sta,,nD Duties 11.0 14.3 17.0 16.4 26.2 28.8 Other 8.5 10.6 8.6 12.3 16.3 16.3 on-Tax Rtevenues 97.0 113.0 131.9 17'.- 3 173.4 165.4 Services Revenues 43.4 36.9 54.1 6:3.7 17.5 22.9 Miscellaneous and extraordinary receipts 53.6 76.1 77.8 11J3.6 155.9 142.5/1 Total 368.9 430.3 473.7 5215.5 514.6 525.9 '1 Profits of the Ministry of Supply are no longer included. See footno-te 5 to Table 51. Source: Ministry of the Treasury Tabio- ,0o .iPAL GOVSRTISL2TT - CUIiAiENT-2 BXI˝IliIiiT{ (LE million) 196a 3/64 lt6 4/65 196Ź/ 66 1966/ 7 1967/"8 1968/a 7 Prov. Est. Jrcanizational Services 238.6 278.4 301.4 269. 5 325.6 359.6 .>n.,lse 176.3 213.5 23P.OA lA8L8. 1. 258.0/2 278. *(urity anid Justice 37.3 39.1 141.0 !O.. , 143.2 49.7 Pt r r;24.) 25.8 25.14 2)4.7 2h4., 31.C Soc.al and HEconomic Servicos 177.C, 1.99.5 226.6 22'2. 225.9 253. L fh.griculture 9,7 11.2 11.lx 4 1-1.6 -15.0 19.3 i.rrigation and Drainage 14.1 13.8 16.8 177.2 18.6 22.1 i.'iucation 82.0 91.7 90.0 99.2 103.1 116.' Health 20.9 214.2 23.3 2r8.97 31.7 34.59 .ransport and Communications 10.2 9.3 9.7 7.5 3.4 7.'9 tLure and Entertainment 11.2 12.3 12.2 10.1 12.3 10.E Others 29.4 37.0 63.2 48.0 141.8 41.59 Debt S_rvice 28.7 35.2 .405 59.3 18.214 12.7 Pern-ions and Other Remunerations 15.8 17.6 19.6 20.2 21.1 214. 0os- of Living Subsidies 32.4 45.0 51.3 146.;2 41.0 8.1. /. ub -Total 1492.9 575.7 639.1 5Ź98.0 631.8 658., Se,- e-ment of Arrears - - 45.7 65.o _ _ GRAND TOTAL 492.9 577.7 684.8 663.0 631.8 658.3 Ll Includes LE 60 million which the official figures classify under "Settlement of Arrears"1 /2 Includes LE 60 million for "emergency appropriations" wdhich the official figures classifW' mnder "Othersn,. L3 Includes a large amount of "emergency appropriations" (estimated by the mission at LE 100 mnillion) which is financed through the so-called Emergency Fund /4 ITo longer includes repayment of principal, as in the past. Only the net result of the operations of the lfinistry of Supply is now reported. Total subsidies are estimated at LB 33.1 million as against profits of LB 25 million. Sonrce: Ministry of the Treasury Table 51l: IVESTMEIT IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR (LE million) 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 Prov. Est. Business Budget Agriculture 48.6 43.2 49.1 47.5 33.0 32.3 Electricity 18.8 19.8 27.4 24.2 20.3 37.7 High Dam 62.9 47.8 59.8 57.2 46.o 31.7 Industry 109.8 80.2 63.8 41.5 42.5 112.7 Transport and Communications 20.2 20.3 22.8 14.6 21.9 32.6 Suez Canal 5.6 7.1 5.3 8.o - - Housing and Public Utilities 16.5 12.8 16.4 13.2 5.0 5.7 Health 2.1 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.7 Culture and Tourism 11.7 9.2 6.1 2.15 1.7 3.5 Supply and Storage 2.8 3.1 5.1 2.14 2.4 5.5 Financial annd ComTmrcial Services 3.3 2.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 1.9 Unsprecified Allocations - - - 13.6 i3.8 Sub-Total 302.3 2)h6.8 259.8 228.6 188.2 260.1 Services Budget/l 67.1 47, 4 40A4 42.6 30.6/2 51.8 TOTAL 369.4 294.2 300.2 271.2 218.8 311.9 /1 Includirn investment expenditure of governatorates /2 This includes "unclassified" investment for LE 24.7 million ;ource: Ministry of the Treasury Table 2 GROS5 (PUBJ LI PI RIVATE) INESTIJ3IT ITI AGRTCUL`-T%T I T CN tKi'TT PRICES ( -hE 1,1 7 16.5 365.8 13it c 1967-68 4 9.9 1968-69 (Estimate) 214.6 28.8 5)314 9s5 Source: Compilation on the basis of data from B. Hansers, Planning and Ecornonic Growdtath in teAR_Et) 1960-65 in Egypt Since the ReLolution of Planing, . ,~ ~~~~~~~~~n Table 53: DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE (L.E. Million) 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-65 1968-69 Total Percent Yield-Increasing Crops 4.0 3.8 4.0 5.6 6.2 7.4 3.3 1.3 4.4 40.0 8.3 % Livestock 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.5 3.2 2.3 1.5 17.4 3.6 Subtotal (5.3) (5.2) (5.0) (7.4) (8.6) (9.9) (6.5) (3.6) (5.9) (57.4) (11.9) Irrigation and Drainage 11.7 11.9 14.5 9.7 9.6 5.2 9.4 6.9 8.8 87.7 18.3 Subtotal (17.0) (17.1) (19-5) (17.1) (18.2) (15.1) (15.9) (10.5) (14.7) (145.1) ( 30.2) Area-Increasing Reclamation (Construction) 12.7 21.8 21.1 39.1 44.7 49.4 42.4 32.6 31.7 295.5 61.7 Reclamation (Farming development) 0.2 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.0 7.4 7.3 10.5 38.6 8.0 Subtotal (12.9) (23-3) (23.6) (42.1) (47.9) (52-4) (49-8) (39.9) (42.2) (334-1) (69.7) TOTAL 29.9 40.4 43.1 59.2 66.1 67.5 65.7 50.4 56.9 479.2 100.0 Source: Compilation on the basis of data from the Ministries of Agriculture, Irrigation and Land Reclamation. Tai,le 54: FACTORS AFFECTING LIUIDITY,±'.. Y SUPPTZ °: ^U+h-1-102LY (Revised Figures) (LE M:illions) 196?/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 June June/ June/ 1967/68 Nov. 1967 Nov0 1968 Honey 3apply 15.9 94.4 60.1 6?.? 1.5 -19.5 36.1 80.1 Quasi Money 43.8 30.6 19.5 16.7 16.3 11.3 - 7.0 - 1.1 TOTAL 79 . 7 1TT5.0 79. 6 277iF ?9.1 79.O 1. Foreign Assets (net) -36.6 -15.1 L.2 -30.6 -19.4 -51.0 -65.o -21.2 2. Claims on Government (net) 50.0 138e2 31.3 .__7_ 74.1 28.2 23.1 Claims on Government (gross) 65,82 /7' v 105.5 77.1 4? 09 3299 21.7 Government Depositb 5.9 -26.2 -35 17.0 '7 -11.? - Ox,2 Q 6 Counterpart Funds -21.7 -17.8 1.3 -10.0 - 7.7 3.5 0.1 - 5,2 3. Claims on Non-Government Sector 42.1 6.9 17.6 6.0 -21.9 99.6 69.4 83.0 Claims on Bpecialized Banks 16.4 8.0 20.? 1.3 -35 5. - 9.7 -17.2 Claims on other non-Government 25.7 - 1.1 _ 2.6 4.7 3.6 P4.3 79.1 100.2 4. Other factors 4.2 - 5.0 19.5 - 9.0 -22.0 5.0 - 01 - 5.9 Unclassified Assets 3.9 -T.J - 0.7 (.9 16.9 - 2.7 Unclassified Liabilities -13.3 -10.9 - 0.2 13.3 8.4 - 3.2 - 9,7 - 3.5 Float 5.6 3.8 4.0 0.5 -94 8 1.3 - 1.5 3.3 Capital accounts - 3.9 - 2.0 6.2 -16.7 - 4.9 - 9.5 - .8 - 3.0 5. Total Credit Expansion 2 +- 3 + 4 96.3 140.1 68.4 109.5 30.2 42.8 94.1 100.2 Changes in cotton financing outstanding ( - increase) -17.6 4.6 _ 0.1 5.4 11.6 2.0 -73,0 -79.4 6. Credit Expansion adjusted for cotton financing 76.7 u68. u14. 41.& 9 Source: The Central Bank of Egypt. Table 55*: COST OF LIVING AND WHOLESALE PRICES (1939 - 100) Cost of Tiving General Wholesale Industrial Products Index Price Tndex FoodEtuffs and Materials__ December 1962 296 420 403 438 December 1963 302 425 403 448 December 1964 339 453 LU5 462 July 1965 353 7h4 48 h71 December 1965 377 490 459 480 July 1966 390 506 529 )iA8L December 1966 391b 526 598 485 July 1967 388 551 624 h85 December 1967 392 553 618 49) July 1968 381 517 538 b97 Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics Table 56: WHOLESALE AND RETTAIL HRIC'ES OF 6EDHrECD COMUDITIES D E C E M B E R I T E M S UNIT 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 A. WHOLESAL5 P,RICES (In Egyptian Pounds) Wheat flour (extract 82%) 100 kg. 3.48 3.49 3.49 3.39 3.39 Rice bleached 100 kg. 3,03 3,03 3,03 7,30 7.58 Maize 100 kg. 3e63 3.64 3.36 4.67 5.03 Beans (whole) 155 kg. 8.73 7e71 6o63 8o12 8o60 W0oollen textles (in-perial) Meter 3J13 3.13 3,53 3.64 3.64 Cotton, ginned (I4enoufi/good) 50 kg. 1,40o 15.50 15.50 15,50 16010 Sugar (granulated) 45 kg. 4.10 4.55 5.04 5,04 5004 Tobacco (Hemmyx Jyrian) kg. -- -- 7.61 7.61 Tea (India, unpacked) kg. 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.45 2O?6 Coffee beans (of Yemen, crible) 45 kg. 37062 37,6? 37.62 37.62 37.62 Kerone (V6 1-itrp) Two tins -- -- -- O0D .90 Coal (cardiif'f) Ton o37-- L1tX -- Fertilizers (nitrate of soda natural) Ton 23.75Ź 2375 23.75 23.75 23975 Diesel Ton 12.90 12.90 12.90 15.20 15209 Benzine (36 litre) Two tins 1.7? 1.7? 1.7? 1072 1.72 Mazout Oil Ton 6.90 6D90 6.90 7.50 7.50 Solar oil Ton 13,07 13.07 13,07 13O07 15.70 B. RETAIL PRICES (In Piasters: 100 Piasters = LE 1) Mutton (baladi) kg. )8.0 53.0 63.8 59,0 47.3 Beef (baladi) kg. 9235 4003 53.8 55,3 47.6 Fish (Bolti) kg. 15.0 20.8 27,2 26,1 23.4 Eggs Ten 12.0 13.0 15,0 15,0 15.0 Fresh butter kg. 43.8 5309 6004 66.7 55,8 Melted butter kg. 57.6 69.7 8004 8307 74,6 Local cheese kg. ?4.8 28.6 3406 36,1 3509 Potatoes (baladi) kg. 2,7 3,0 4?2 4.7 4.7 Onions kg. 1.3 2.7 3.9 4.8 407 6.8 6. . 7.0 8.3 Beans (whole) j g6 Bananas kg. 8.8 9.3 100O 1(02 10,2 Dates dry kg. 8,5 9.1 11,4 12,9 1203 Electricity Kwh 3.0 3,0 3,0 3.0 3.0 Soap, olive oil Pi.e. ?25 mns. 6.0 $0 6,0 6,0 700 .~~m Po,' 1 ~nr~v,-~- oc'~ iflfl ~6n0 6A 6.o 6.ii7 Soure; for Av Ic u Pil izatin and !, &a t C_ Sore eda gnyfrPbi oi ainad S ta-c. s ,cs Table 57; PRICES PAID BY FARIERS FOR SELECTED INPUTS IN fECENT YEARS Price Item Definition Unit L.E. Fertilizers /1, /2 Anmoniurn Sulphate 21% N 100 kg 2.9 Calcium Nitrate 26% N 3.58 Urea (46% N) 46% N 6.4 Superphosphate 15%P2o, 1.35 Potassium Sulphate 48-59%t° 2.6 Pesticides (in 1966) Deptrix 1.?5 kg 1.68 Sevin 1 kg 1.34 ilalathion It 1.19 Zinc Phosphate _? 0.485 DDT 50% "1 0.?84 aulphur 50 kg 2.965 Andrine L9.5% Liter 0.210 Lindane "I 0.105 Kalthine Oil i 0.53 Cobravit ?2 kg 12.0 Ikatin Liter 1.06 Machinery Services (in 1968) Thresh /3 Hour 0.45 Pllw plus Harrow /3 Acre 1.90 Seed (in 1968) Comn Hybrid 150 kg 7 Open if 5 Wheat 6 hice 1?0 kg 3 Cotton " 1.8 IK1achinery (in 1968) /4 Tractor Diesel 50 HP 1,500 Cultivator 9-tin 1?5-140 Disc Harrow One-wa-y 12 9OO Land Leveller 12 ft. 200-240 /1 1965 through 1966. Prices have not changed during this period. 77 Prices CIF Alexandria for fertilizers were: U.S.$ per MloT. L.E. per 100 kg Ammoniun Sulphate (20.6%N): 1966-67 3F-44 1.65-1.91 1967-68 30-35 1.30-1.52 Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (26%N): 1966-67 51 2.22 1967-68 42-45 1.83-1.96 Potassium Sulphate (48%K2o),: 1966-67 85 3.70 1967-68 70-83 3.04-3.61 /3 These are cooperative society rates. Private operators quote up to 50 percent higher. / Customs duties are 21 percent value cif on crawler tractors and 11 percent on wheel tractors. Cooperative societies are not required to pay these charges. Source: Compilation on the basis of the findings of the mission. Tl: : PRICES] AT' 1(TDTCII STAPLE FOODS TAVE BEEN MADE AVATLABITE TO TIE FUOD TPLDE BY TIT, GENEI2AL OPGAN:[ZATION FOR SUPPLY (1,,cEE per ton) ITE 1 -7756/6 1966/67 196 7/ WTheat 303) 3 31 Flour (extra) 46 46 28 haize 6 26 33 33 LenUli1is 7>6 76 76 80 L:e saxale (Upper iS7pt) (j 107 107 107 be same (.Sharbia) 0 Eidible Oil (rationed) l50 11 50 50 :,(Lible Oil (factoryr) 10 100 100 100 Loap fats (solid) 1'3 123 123 123 Soap fats (in containers) 130 130 130 130 Edible fats 180 10 9209 SLugar (rationed) 66 66 66 to 70 70 Sugar (free) 138 160 160 160 Tea (Indian/Chinese/Turki sh) l,111l l,141 1,166 1,166 Tea (Yacout Indian) 1,L19 L4 4 9 2 26 3 2.,263 Tea (Ceylon) 1,82 2 1,82 2 2,770 2,778 Tea (Extra) 2,536 2,536 45036 4,036 Coffee (Brazilian) 6.7h 674 674 671. Soffee (femenese) 1814 814 0 Source: The General Organization :.,;r SuppJr,v Table 59: INVENTOHY OF TIE, GENERAL, (ThGMJIZATION FOR SUPPLY (As at June 30 - Tonis) Commodity 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 19678/69 WJheat 268,916 181,000 414l,0(00 400,000 Flour Extra 199,001 56,094 185,0(0 100,000 Maize --- 37,768 155,18? --- Lentils 6,018 9,767 Sesame 2,386 4,,703 Ledible Oil ?h4,000 34,0() 45,0()0 )11,00 Soap Fats 1,0CO ,$(00 4, 693 3,000 ;dible Fat s o,5 L,600 3,970 1, 000 Si2gar ?18,300 930,700 ?27,4(0 296,300 Tea 9,70 7,500 2,200 10,500 Toffee 0,900 1,O)5 0,575 1,559 $3oijrce: The Geineral Organization for Supply Table FO: CA SI ASH G 1 . LOSSE r CBOYIOFI IT sru U ITA2 FOoQ, S'J?'PLh'.Y API]D 22.1 2X> :)'l'tL2zArIOI., 1967-IT6 APIID 1903-69 - ) _ 1,AD 7 - 9 C 9 I1em t ib lana tion L, E .ThonisnZIQ Exoplana-ion .E .Tl.ousancl (Ton s) Tons_ A. Losses -ATheat 1,660,000 /lL 18,639 1,540,000 /1 13,675 Flour 51L4,00 J, )I 4,750 Maize 13Ź5000 71 1,0413 200,000 /1 1,:L98 Lentils 1i,0 00 5! 0 17,000 7 1,085 Oils 58000) 7i 3365 53,000 7 8,943 Sesame 15,000 71 5?2 Beans & Lentils Local 591 Local. 676 Sugar 209,000 /2 3,31 2103,0G0 j/9 ) Sugar /3 6-9 ) 6,103 /A Sugarcane Price differe::i;ial 1,047 ) _Pjnels cc cows currency premium /1 276 Currency prenium,/l 276 --I.ic0e O Trarsnori tL10 TOTAL 35,356 /8 32,106 /9 B. Gains Oils 13,100 216 Oils 365000 /5 4,321 3, 99 Cottornseed ,200 zrdeb/6 2 046 Tea 23,570 6,533 24,000 T. 6,998 C'offee 4,500 625 5,000 T. 869 Sugar 170gOOO lS0,5 224L,000 - 11,432 Flour 600,000 T. 298? TOTAL 32,699 26,72 /A) C. *Other Charges Reserve /7 144 /7 607 Operating Expenses 900 TOTAL 1, oA607 B-A-C 3,708 6,441 /1 impor-ed /2 Rationed 7 Containers and storage 7 Includes cost of guards 73 Unrationed Distribution 7 Distribution 77 For sindij losses. 7 This figure is carried as 39,956 in the source document. Presumably the error is arithmetic. /9 This figure is carried as 32,605 in source document. Presumably arithmetic error. 7IOtnrongly added in source document. Source: The General Organization for japply Table 61: BAIANCE OF PAYTEzNTS 1962/63 - 1967/68 (LE million) 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 Current Account Exports 199,7 243.1 244.8 251.0 263.9 253.4 Suez Canal receipts 69.8 74.4 82e8 90.6 95.2 - Travel and other receipts 38.4 43.7 54.6 44.1 59.8 44.1 Other receipts 22.5 17.2 16.9 24.7 19.9 15.2 TOTAL 330.4 378.4 399.1 410.4 438.8 312.7 Imports 367.0 429.3 394o0 423,? 414.4 386.8 Interests and dividends 11.7 14.1 14.7 15.9 19.0 16.4 Government expenditure 26e4 27.1 35.3 38.8 35.7 25.5 Other expenditures 40e5 48.6 42.1 49.1 49.0 38,7 TOTAL 445.6 519.1 486.1 527.0 518.1 467.4 Balance -115e2 -140o7 - 87e0 -116.6 - 79.3 -154.7 Capital Account Grants and local currency loans 56.0 63.0 49.7 32.0 8.9 - Foreign currency loans and other receipts 51.1 103.7 111.8 121.1 154.6 17206 Total receipts 107.1 166.7 161.5 153.1 163.5 172,6 Debt amortization and other payxents - 27,2 - 63.5 - 86.5 - 51.7 - 646 - 68.8 Balance - 79e9 -103.2 - 75.0 101.4 98,9 103.8 Financial Balance - 35.3 - 37.5 - 12.0 - 15.? 19.6 - 50°9 Foreign exchange reserves /i - 19.7 - 0.8 - 15.1 - 259.5 26.3 - 35.0 IMF /2 - 7,0 - 8.1 - 0.9 1I1 10.8 - 3.5 Non-resident accounts /3 - 8.4 - 23.9 7.0 15.5 - 16.0 - 14.6 Errors and omissions - 0.2 - 4.7 - 3.0 - 2.3 _ 1,5 2.2 /1 MLinus signs indicate decrease in assets 72 Net use of resources; minus signs indicate drawings 75 Net change; minus signs indicate increase in UAR liabilities Source: Central Bank of Egypt Table 62- BALANiCES ON CLEARING AND OTEH[R ACCOUNTS (PATYKNTS AGREENT3) tv,million) ________________________ 311i27~TTh'31/68 30/6/78 30 ..7 ...... 370-7/71-g- Bilateral Accounts Albania - 0.1 - 0. 2 - 0.2 - 0,2 - 0.2 Algeria + 1.2 1.2 + 1.5 + 0.9 1.6 BLlgaria - 08- 1.5 - 0.6 - 0.6 1.:3 Cameroon . 0.1 - - - Ceylon -0.2 -0.3 - 0.3 - 0.7 -0.7 China - 6.8 6.3 - 5.4 - 6.3 - 7.0 Cuba -0.6 O.11 4 + 0.7 .+. 0.3 C7echoslovakia 4 1.7 - 1.7 + 1.8 + 1.3 - 1. 9 Denmar-k- - 0.1 - 0.1 - 0. I 0.1 E. Germnany - 2.1 - 1.5 - 1.3 - 2.0 - 2.7 Ghlana + 0.2 t 0.3 0.3 t 0.5 t 0.6 Greece - 2,1 - 1.9 - 1.7 - 2.3 - 3.3 Guinea + 1.8 + 1.8 ± 1.8 + 1.9 t 1.9 Hungary + 0.2 + 1,1 * 1.1 + 0.9 - o.4 Incia - 6.7 - 6.9 -2.6 + 1.7 + 0.3 Indonesia t 0.7 + 1,0 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 1.0 Iraq - 0.2 - 0.2 + 1.0 t1.5 N. Korea + 0.1 - - - 0.2 - 0.2 Lebanon - 0.1 - 0.8 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.6 Iibya + 0.7 + 0.6 + 0.7 i C).2 4- 0.2 Meli + 4.9 + 5.4 + 5.4 + 5.2 + 5.2 Morocco - o.4 - 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.3 - 0.3 Poland - 2.6 - 1.8 - 0,5 - 0.8 - 0.6 :Munania - 6.5 - .7 - )4,5 - 5.1 - 1.7 Saudi Arabia - 1.3 - 1.3 - 1.2 - 1L.2 - 1.0 Somalia - 0.9 - 0.7 - 0.6 - 0.5 - 0.5 Spain - 6.2 -. - 5.9 - 6.8 - 6.4 Sudan - 4.5 -4.7 - 4.A 3. - 3.6 Switzerland - o.h -- 0.5 - 0,i. O).44 - 0.3 Syria - 4.0 - 3.6 - 4.2 - 4.18 - 4.9 Tunisia - 0.1 -- 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.1 U.S.S.R. -30.7 -.32.0 -35.59 -0 . -33.0 Vietnam - - - 0.1 - 0.1. Yemen -16.8 --16.6 -16.5 -16.5 -16.4 Yugoslavia - 2.4 -- 2.0 - 2.6 - 3. 9 - 4.,)4 TOTAL -90.1 -82.2 75.0 -8:2.9 -78. 2 Other Accounts/l France - 1.8 *- 1.3 - 2.8 - 2,3 - 2,,3 Italy -29.7 -29.8 -30.9 -30.6 -36.5 Saudi Arabia - 0.2 - 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.3. - Syria + 2.3 . 2.3 + 2.3 + 2.3 + 2.3 Turkey - 1.1 - 1.4 - 1.4 - 1.3 - ,,1 U.K. - 0.7 0.1 - - W. Germany - 0.2 _ TOTAL -31.2 -30.7 -32.9 -32.0) -37,.6 GRAND TOTAL -121.3 -112.9 -107.9 114.9 _ A O _1 Funding arrangements including Saudi. Government Sp-ecial a/c anFoan ty Syria. Wk)-arce; The Central Bank of Egypt Table 63 : CUOPOSIT10T OF TRADE (i; millions) 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 Export s Fuels 1.40 i4.7 6.8 Raw materials 16L.7 1)49.2 128.5 Eemi-finished commiodities 33.8 35.6 32.9 Finished commodities 43.7 53.0 70.2 Othler commodities 3.0 5.3 6.3 Total 256.2 257.8 2L.5 Imports Fuels 21.4 29.0 20.0 ,law materials 81,5 00.7 99.2 Intermediate commodities 168.4 121.2 114.0 Capital commodi-ties 108.5 76.7 71.0 .,onsumer's commodities a) durable 7.9 4.9 3.6 b) non-edu:able 50.8 46.4 "8.1 Other commodities 191 17.7 16.6 Total 463.5 376.5 245.5 BALANCE -207.3 -118.6 -a00.9 Source: Central Agencvr for Public IN1obilization and Statistics krnual Bulletin of Foreign Trade Table6 : DIRECTION OF -RADE (In percent) 1955/56-1959/60 1959/60 1960/61-196h765 19)4/61 1963/66 1966/67 1967/68 Average ~ Annual fiv eraEe Imports from: Arab countries 7.9 9.1 7.6 8.6 6.6 7.0 6.1 Eastern Europe 2L.7 25.!t 21.0 19.6 24.9 30.1- 41.4 Western Europe 41h.2 36.5 33.4 33X14 33.3 27.2 32.3 The Americas 13.2 17.8 26.1 27.6 20.0 22.3 6.2 Far East 10.1 9.2 9.2 8.4 12.5 11.7 8.6 Other 2.9 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.7 1.7 6.4 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Exports to: Arab countries 11.3 11.3 10.1 7.1 8.9 9.0 12.3 Eastern Europe 41.0 42,3 43e9 47.8 51.2 49.9 42.3 Western Europe 22.8 20.9 22.9 22.2 18.8 18.9 21.8 The Americas 4.1 5.5 6.9 5.0 L.5 2.9 2.5 Far East 18.1 18.2 13.)4 15.3 1Li.7 15.3 15.0 Other 2.6 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.8 4.o 7.1 TO-TAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Computations on the basis of data of che Public Agency for Mobilizatlon and Statistics - Annual Bulletin of Foreign Trade - The Central Bank of Egypt and the General. Organization for Trade. Note : Percentages do not always add up because of rounding of the figures. Table 65: FOREIGN TRADE INDEXES AND THE TER4S3 OF TRADE 1962 1963 1964 1965 1566 1967 Exports Value 69.6 100.0 102.8 115.5 L14.8 105.7 Price 90e7 100.0 106.8 113*2 1C9.8 117.1 Quantity 76.8 100.0 96.3 102.0 1C4.6 90.3 Imports Value 76.5 100.0 103.1 98.7 116.5 88.6 Price 84.9 100.0 103.5 103.3 100.3 89.2 Quantity 90.2 100.0 99.6 95.5 116.2 99.4 Terms of Trade Net rate 107.0 100.0 103.0 110.0 lC9.0 131.0 Gross rate 117.0 100.0 105.0 98.0 111.0 110.0 Income rate 82.0 100.0 100.0 112.0 114.0 118.0 Source: Central Agency for Public M4obilization and Statistics Table 66 : Realized Export Prices for Agriculture Commodites (Average Prices by Sterling Pounds per ton) Commodity 19655/66 1966/67 1967/68 Rice 50 3 74 Onions Raw 25 $4 51 Potatoes 29 29 33 Garlic 89 127 169 Ground nuts L23 113 125 Flax 15l 133 118 Cereals 61 45 59 Onions Dhydrated 201 217 277 Tomatoes 5O 123 114 Vegetables 813 79 87 Medicimal herbs 244 56 193 Watermelons 31 71 95 Source: The Ministry of Supply Table 67: COTTON EXPORTS BY VARIETY ALQst4Ju1Y Modal Staple Variety 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 Length --- 1,000 bales (478 lbs each)--- --inches--- Karnak 9.7 1.1 - - Menoufi 816.2 744.6 519.1 1 - ˝" Giza 45 90.2 140.9 122.4 1 - 9/16" Giza 68 6.8 46.6 149.1 1 - 15/32"1 Giza 47 351.7 292.9 204.4 n.a. Dendera 167.7 205.9 78.2 1 - 9/32" Giza 67 6.9 55.9 166.3 1 - 3/8" Ashmouni 91.9 6.1 42.1 1 - Giza 66 12.4 7803 126.9 1 - 9/32"1 Others 11.2 9.6 25.0 n.a. TOTAL 1,564.7 1,581.9 1,433.5 Source: I.G.A.C. "Cotton - World Statistics", October 1968 and "Cotton Production Survey 1968.X" Table 6,8 : PRODUCTION, EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF RICE Yield Domestic Year Area Planted (tons per Production Exports Imports Consumption (thousand feddans) feddan) (thousand)/1 (thousand)/2 (thousand)/2 (thousand)/2 Average 1935/39 446 1.53 685 -- -- Average 1950/54 519 1.56 830 111.0 -- 428.4 Average 1955/59 654 2.11 1385 227.8 9.5 682.1 1960/61 706 2.10 1486 299.1 -- 666.8 1961/62 537 9.13 ~ 1142 ?c); - __ 671.7 1962/63 830 2.46 2039 386.1 - 938.6 1963/64 959 2.31 2219 532.6 - 905.9 1964/65 962 2.12 2036 352.5 -- 993.0 Average 1960/61 - 1964/65 799 2.23 1784 328.2 __ 835.3 1965/66 848 2.11 1788 327.9 __ __ 1966/67 844 1.99 1679 364.5 1967/68 10l75 2 12 2279 527.0 __ 924.0 /1 Paddy 72' Rice Source: Ministry of Planning. Table 69: EXPORTS OF NMLNUFACTURE (Value in 1000 Pounds) Increase in Annual Jan.-Nov. 1968 Average Jan.-Nov. over 1961 196? 1963 1964 1965 1961/1965 1966 1967 1968 1961/65 average Cotton Yarn 7,098 12?,37 19,137 29,173 31,252 19,939 31,648 30,568 30,153 51 Textiles 6,908 8,678 10,377 12,457 11,939 10,071 1)4,200 15,020 18,863 87 Waste, Rags 590 731 936 691 695 7?8 1,075 1,151 1,477 103 Crude Oil, Prodacts 7,381 15,058 16,723 21,059 13,984 14,881 15,270 960 6,555 -56 Sugar ?,428 1,85)4 638 1855 588 1,138 206 431 ?,542 123 Cigarettes 40> 113 223 4u7 708 31) 0`30 1,373 218 70 Dehydrated On.ion s 7Th 1,)'80 1,973 L,?91 y68 1,350 1,007 796 1,97? - 6 Dehydrated Garlic 73 52 35 43 20 43 87 100 Edible Preparations 2,237 2, 9?0 51473 4,707 14,24? 3,915 1,l0?o 1,83)4 5,738 47 Cement 2,790 2,166 1?3 1,460 ,9345 1,98? ?,966 1,916 5,248 165 Niining Products 2,953 2,303 2,510 2,906 2,740 9,684 136 352 2,700 1 Chemical Products 95 339 471 590 610 447 2,593 2,587 1,332 198 Ietal, Engineering, Products 465 68c 1,43° 687 457 745 2,699 4,164 2,513 237 Ayticles of leather 843 579 79? 752 490 677 908 186 2,784 311 FurniQre and Jood Produlcts 100 175 163 110 93 19)4 180 180 2)49 95 Drugs 50 9? 07 143 967 198 448 486 673 429 Souvenir, Articles Books, Newspaper 1,061 1,^03 1,500 1,811± 1,875 1,491 1,8?9 1,092 573 -69 Other Goods 7,85 4,29? 10,794 1,31 5,117 5,859 7,999 13,595 11,66? 127 TOTAL ).14,53? 47,909 69,961 80,005 78,343 66,516 84,516 76,66? 95,532 44 Source: General Organization for Trade I I - Table7 C0PETROLEUM BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Value in 1000 Pounds) 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 estimate estimate estimate estimate estimate estimate estimate 1. Imports: A) Crude Oil 29,692 22,447 24,118 13,781 8,462 11,450 - _ _ _ _ B) Petroleum Products 4,166 6,484 5,056 15,310 9,322 5,412 5,525 5,284 5,334 5,735 6,695 C) Total Imports 33,858 28,931 29,174 29,091 17,784 16,862 5,525 5,284 5,334 5,735 6,695 2. Exports: A) Crude Oil: - Contracted - - 603 1,906 4,185 1,197 5,429 3,360 3,840 - _ - Free: Sinai 9,483 4,375 2,239 - - - 11,285 9,953 8,325 6,993 6,031 Other Fields 1,806 1,700 2,754 543 1,670 13,512 17,955 23,940 23,355 29,655 42,840 Total 11,289 6,075 5,596 2,449 5,855 14,709 34,669 37,253 35,520 36,648 48,871 B) Petroleum Products 10,907 9,677 10,743 4,748 7,564 9,055 12,012 11,374 13,764 14,757 15,634 C) Total Exports 22,196 15,752 16,339 7,197 13.L19 23,76k 6,681 48,627 29,284 51,605 64,505 3. Balance (2 - 1) -11,662 -13,179 -12,835 -21,894 - 4,365 6,902 41,156 43,343 43,950 45,670 57,810 Source: The General Organization for Petroleum I i A 4 REVISED Table 71: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - EXTENAL PUBIIC DEBT OUTSTANDI1 AS OF JUNE 30, 1968 /1 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thoueands of U.S. dollars) Page 1 Debt Outstanding June 30, 1968 Source Disbursed Including only undisbursed TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT /2 1,686_7_ 1,6_ 7,54 Privately held debt 280,537 280,537 Suppliers 210 12L1 210 124 Australia 11066 Austria 1,836 1,836 B elgium 7914 794 Canada 1,701 1,701 Denmark 5,022 5,022 FL.nland 637 637 Fr'ance 5,095 5,o95 G!)rmarW 91,168 91,168 Greece 1,729 1,729 It.aly 12,278 12,278 J:Lpan 31,619 31,619 MeIcico 9,880 9,880 Netherlands 244 2h4 Spain 11,451 11,451 Sweden 13,628 13,628 Switzerland 1,931 1,934 Uz.ited Kingdom 16,8L8 16,8h8 U'lited States 3,195 3,195 Fin ancial institutions 67,679 67,679 ILaly 27,079 27,079 Kuwait 40,600 40,600 Other Privately held debt 2,735 2,7 Loans from international organizations - IERD 33,500 Loans from governments a 137130T 4 1,37101lI CanMda 3,317 3,791 Chira Mainland 19,803 19,803 Czeehoslovakia 44,728 44,728 Eastl Germany 28,600 28,600 France 25,719 25,719 Gernmany (Fed. Rep. of) 121,137 121,137 Greece 8,712 8,712 Hungary 18,797 18,797 Italy 76,606 76,606 Kuwait 116,600 116,600 Poland 39,660 39,660 Rumania 7,918 7,918 United Kingdom 6,348 6,318 United States 170,938 171,247 U.S.S.R. 657,057 657,072 Yugoslavia 25,364 25,364 flationalization 1,156 1,456 See footnotes at end of table. REVISED Table 71: UNITE) ARAB REPUBLIC - EXT:ERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF JUNE 30, 1968 /1 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 2 a )Debt with an original or extended maturity of over one year. Includes arrears of principal and excludes arrears of interest up to June 30, 159683 as shown below: (In thousands of U.S. dollars)' .Principal Interest Total 7. 8,935 14,P75 Austria 322 80 Canada 669 91 Germany (Fed. Rep. of) 2,521 926 Japan 9,021 1,184 Kuwait 4,200 2,520 Mexico 3,120 - United Kingdom 8,373 1,251 United States 43,709 8,823 & Excludes an amount outstanding of $3,565,000 to Saudi Arabia as it is repayable in local currency. 9 Does not include the uncommitted portions of the following frame agreements: (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Total 399 005 Bulgaria China Mainland 68,642 Czechoslovakia 90,970 East Germany t44d,451 Hungary 1,454 Poland 5,991 U.S.S.R. 1:59,944 Yugoslavia 15,553 Statistical Services Division Economics Department August 8, 1969 REV ISED Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF Jt,NE 30, 1968 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousaands of U.S. dollars) Page 1 DEBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PE:RIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBIURSED ZATION INTEREaST T0TAL TOTAL EXTRNAL PUBLIC DEBT 1968 1,615,658,'1 138,232 28,037 166,269 1969 1,519,195 177,651 33,632 211,283 1970 1,341,Sh5 201,920 38,038 239,958 1971 1,139,624 180,628 30,565 211,193 1972 958,996 162,396 24,574 186,970 1973 796,600 141,897 19,130 161,027 1974 654,703 123,961 14,372 138,336 1975 530,739 104,171 10,969 115,140 1976 426,568 84,873 8,377 93,250 1977 341,695 80,610 6,2438 87,048 1978 261,085 70,622 6,708 77,330 1979 190,463 65,077 3,179 68,256 1980 125,386 45,802 1,810 47,612 1981 79,584 41,986 1,068 43,054 1982 37,598 5,1436 433 5, 869 Note: Includes service on a debt listed in Table72 preparedl August L, 196,7, with the exception of the following principal in arrears, for which re- payment terms are not available: Suppliers $20,637,000 Financial institutions 6,200 ,000 LOans from goverments: Canada 669,000 Germany 2,521,000 United Kingdom 1,224,000 United States 42r684 000 S71, 935,ot a See footr}te at end of table. REVISED Table72: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTIDATED FUTURE SERVICE PADENTS ON EXrERNAL PUJBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDIN; INCIUFDIN(} UNDISBURSED AS OF JtNIE 30, 1968 (co.NT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 2 DERT OUTST (RE§I1 OF PER101) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUn ING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISSURSEr, ZATION INTEREST TOTAL, TO'TAL PRIVATELY 64ELD DEBT 1968 255,699 t2 46,868 9,3a7 56,174 1969 219:034 59,156 111,663 69,819 1970 159,878 47,089 8,U79 55,148 197± 112,789 35,712 5,639 41,350 1972 77,o77 26,973 3p865 30.838 1973 50,104 22,214 2,501 24,715 1974 27,889 13,194 1,330 14,524 1975 14,695 7,667 732 8,599 1976 6.829 6,623 294 6,918 1977 205 205 5 210 SUPPLIERS 1968 189.485 /1 38,717 5,745 44.461 1969 159.150 47,350 7,440 54$790 1970 111s0o0 35,783 5.518 41,301 1971 76.017 24,905 3,685 28,591 1972 51,j1j 18,354 2,501 20,855 1973 32,757 17,74-67 1,6512 18, 9 1974 i5.289 6,994 616 9,610 1975 6,295 3,667 270 3*937 1976 2,629 2,423 84 2,508 1977 205 205 5 210 Jee footnote at end of table. REEVIED Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTMIATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCIUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUIE 30, 1968 (coNT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 3 nE4T nUTST (REGIN OF PER10on) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR ULNOISBURSEn ZATION INJTEREST TOTAL TOTAL PRIVATELY 4ELD DEEIT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 1968 63,479/1 8,151 3,562 11,713 1969 57,149 11,259 3,Usu 14,339 1970 45,890 10,759 2,448 13,207 1971 35,131 10.259 1,871 12,130 1972 24,872 8,072 1,312 9,383 1973 16,800 4,200 966 5,166 1974 12,600 4,200 714 4,914 1975 6,400 4,200 462 4,662 1976 4,200 4,200 21u 4,410 OTHER PRIVATELY PLACED DEBT 1968 2,735 / - U 1969 2,735 547 143 690 1970 2,188 547 113 660 1971 1,641 547 83 630 1972 1,094 547 53 600 1973 547 547 23 570 See footnote at end of table. IET-, VED Table72: UNITED ARAB REPUBIAC - :3STIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLI. DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLODING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1968 (cO:NT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thlousands of U.S. dollars) Page 14 nFqT OUTST (REGIN 0F PERIOD) PAYMENTS DUHINJ PERIOD INJCLUDtING AMORTi. YEAR UNOISRURSEn ZATION INTEREST TOTAL IOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS 19RD 1968 333.5no . 4,000 2,u93 6.093 1969 3ij5no 4,000 1,830 5,830 197n 27,500 5,500 1,567 7,067 1971 22,000 5,5no 1,237 6,737 1972 16,500 5,500 9Q7 6,407 1973 11,000 5,5no 577 6,077 1974 5,500 5,500 247 51747 LOiANS FROM GOVERNENT3 1968 1,325,004 /1- 87,073 16,596 103,669 1969 1,267,496 -- 113,913 21,081 134,9914 1973 1,153,583 148,749 28,367 177,116 1971 1,004,834 139,417 23,690 163,107 1972 865,417 129,923 19,802 149,725 1973 735,494 114,182 16,052 130,2314 1971 621,312 105,270 12,795 118,065 1975 516,042 96,304 10,238 106,542 1976 419,738 78,250 8,083 86,333 1977 341,488 80,105 6,L34 86,839 1978 261,083 70,622 4,708 75,330 1979 190,461 65,077 3,180 68,257 1980 125,384 45,802 1,811 47,613 1981 79,582 41,986 1,068 43,056 1982 37,598 5,436 h33 5,869 See footnote at end of table. F.EV:ISED Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPUBIZC - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1968 (coNT.)T Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 5 DE9T OUTST (REGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PIERIOD Ifil;LUnING AMORTI- YEAR LINDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CANADA 1968 3.122 /1 223 79 302 1969 2,899 446 16fl 606 1970 2,453 446 14u 516 1971 2,007 446 1t4 540 1972 1,561 446 87 533 1973 1i10 446 60 506 1974 669 446 33 479 1975 223 223 7 230 CHINA MAINIAND 1968 19,803 /1 1,586 _ 1,586 1969 18,216 1,586 - 1,586 1970 16,630 _ _ 1971 16,630 891 - 891 1972 15,739 2,020 - 2,020 1973 13,719 2,019 - 2,019 197h 11,701 2,020 - 2,020 1975 9,681 2,019 - 2,019 1976 7,662 2,020 - 2,020 1977 5,6h2 1,128 - 1,123 1973 4,51L 1,129 - 1,129 1979 3,385 1,128 _ 1,128 1980 2,257 1,129 - 1,129 1981 1,128 1,128 - 1,128 See aootnote at end of table. RF:T3 .- FD Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ES'TIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAIPENTS ON EXTERNAL PUliLIC, DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUJDI1G UNDISBuIRSEn AS OF JUNE 3O, 1968 (CONT,,) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 6 nERT OUTST (REGIN OF PER1O! ) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI. YEAR IJNnISBURSE-r ZATION INTEREST TOTAL LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS CZECHOSLOVAK IA 1968 44 728 L 5,450 '371 6,321 1969 40:246 6,229 1,u53 7s282 1970 34,o7 7,262 925 8,187 1971 26,755 6,388 725 7,113 1972 20.367 6.631 5;33 7,143 1973 13,736 2,821 347 3,168 1974 10,915 2,807 125 2,931 1975 8.108 2,480 99 2t579 1976 5,628 2,346 73 2e419 1977 3s282 2,348 47 2a395 1978 9354 934 24 958 EAST GERMANY 1968 28.600L 2,484 466 2,950 1969 27,264 3,579 861 4.440 1970 23,684 30579 644 4,223 1971 20,105 3,366 529 3,896 1972 16.739 2,797 43u) 3s227 1973 13,942 ?,63o 353 2,963 1974 11,312 2s177 281 2,458 1975 9,135 2,076 228 2,304 1976 7,059 1678 179 1,857 1977 5,381 1,627 131 1j759 1978 3,754 1,572 93 1,645 1979 2,182 1,241 55 1.296 1980 941 941 22 962 *ee, footrnote at end of table. R.EVISED Table7 E: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTIMATED FIJTURE SERVICE PAYMNETS ON EXTERiNA PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCILJDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JULNE 30, 1968 (coNTT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Pare 7 OEBT OUTST (REGIJN OF PFRIOn) PAYMENTS DUJRING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI1 YEAR UNnISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOl AL LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS FRANCE 1968 25.719/1 7,348 1,554 8#902 1969 22,on45- 7,348 1,162 8.'i1O 197n 14,696 7,348 739 8,CjB8 ±971 7,348 7,348 317 7,665 GERMANY 1968 118,617 /l 8,li1 2,598 10,67i' 1969 110,588 15,114 4,582 19,694, 1970 95,474 j5,172 3,782 18,,95- 1971 80.302 15,720 3,122 i80B4;' 1972 64,582 16#269 2,0437 1973 48,313 13,769 1,603 151,37Q, 1974 34,545 8,623 989 9061,,' 1975 25,922 4,95(i 735 5d,6'L 1976 20,972 4,678 585 5,26: 1977 16,294 4,454 449 4,90;.b 1978 11,840 4,405 3±8 4'72 1979 7,435 4,093 189 4424 1980 3,342 1,717 82 1#799 1981 1,625 1,083 41 1,121 1982 542 542 8 55r See .lotnThte at end of table. PV]IS E D Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPUBLITc - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXr.RNAL PJ9hLI' DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1968 (CONT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (:En thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 8 DEST nUTST (REGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDIS8URSED ZATION INITEREST TOTAL LnANS FROM GOVERNME!NTS GREECE 1968 8.712 tl 1,5;38 256 JLa794 1969 8,712 2,562 215 2,t780 197n 6,1L50 2,o5c 154 42,204 1971 4.1i0 2,050 103 2a,153 1972 2,050 2,05U 51 28101 HUNGARY 1968 18,797 /1 2,890 31D2 3,192 1969 17,479 2e633 274 2,906 1970 14,846 2,722 278 3,000 1971 12,'L25 2,866 276 3,142 1972 9,;259 2,676 2:11 2,3887 1973 6,583 2,345 1,46 2,491 1974 4,:238 1,846 96 1,942 1975 2,;593 1,039 50 1,090 1976 1,35 4 809 ;26 835 1977 !545 389 7 396 1978 :156 156 * 156 See footnote at end o-f t-tpble. Table'"2: UNIT3 ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTIMATED FUTUcRE SERVICE PAYME;NTS 01 EXTERNI L PURLITC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISB3URSED AS OF JUN]", 30, 1968 (coNT\, Debt RF!payable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) P&tDe 9 n EqT OUTST (REGlN OF PFRIOD) PAYMENtS DI)RING PI;RRIOD INCLUnI NG AMORTI- YEAR lINDIS8URSEI ZATO10 INTeRtST TorAL LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS ITALY 1968 76,606 /1 1969 76,606 5,327 2,l9B 7,!i25 197n 71J279 1n,327 3005 13,;32 1971 60,951 10,327 2,529 :12,1156 1972 50,624 10,327 2,052 :2,;79 1973 40,297 10,327 1,576 11,1803 1974 29,970 108327 11V99 1.1,(26 i975 19,642 8,661 623 9, ;;83 1976 10,982 3,661 329 3ji 1977 7,321 3,661 2211 1978 3,661 3,661 11U 3*:170 KUwAIT 1968 116,600 /l 2,28o i,U14 3,;'94 1969 115,160 2g,28n 887 3,;,67 1970 112,880 10,280 4,188 14,48 1971 102,6nO 10,280 3,809 i4s,i$9 1972 92,32n 0 i,7no 3 427 .4,o:.27 1973 81,620 102,Db 3,033 13,'33 1974 70,920 1l,700 2,64u I3,i4o 1975 60.220 10,700 2,246 12,;.46 1976 49,520 11#12o 1,849 12s,P9 1977 38,4V0 11,120 1,441 12 il1 1978 27,280 1U,520 jp033 11#1153 1979 16.760 i1052n 625 11i.¶45 1980 6,240 3,240 216 3,56 i98l 3,flnn 11,O00 121a 19P2 2, 000 1,OOi 81 1 80 See 'oottlote at end of table. ].{VIS ED Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPJBILIC - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ONT EXTERNhAL PUBLI DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1968 (CONT.) Deb)t Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 10 rEsT taUTST (REqjN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLU! ING AMORTI- YEAR '!'nISSURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL LOlANS FROM GOVERNMENTS POLAND 1968 39,660 /1 1,469 231 1,700 1969 38,337 1,666 265 l,s932 1970 36,672 5,84? 923 60764 191 30,830 4,350 7f53 5,j33 1972 26,48j 4,182 669 41,850 1973 22,,299 3,923 563 4,486 1974 18,,376 3,340 464 3s804 1975 15,036 3,340 38l1 3,.720 1976 11 , 696 3,34n 295 30,635 j977 8,356 2,987 212 31,1S9 1978 5,,369 2z684 136 2,820 j979 2,6585 2,685 71. 2,756 RUMAN I A 1968 7,91.8 /1 509 2 590 1969 7,5l'9 996 151 14 47 197fl 6,583 1,181 156 1,337 1971 5,4012 1,iiai 127 1,308 1972 4o222 1,1.81 98 1,279 1973 3,041 1481 77 1a,258 1974 1,860 1,003 41 1,044 1975 8;1 672 14 686 1976 1l5 185 2 L07 See footnote at end of table. IEVIS ED TabLe72: UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTIMATED FUTURE SERVICE PAIWTS OS ON ECTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCIUDING UNDISBURS2E AS OF RUNE 30, 1968 (ColT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars;) Page 11 D)EST OUJTST (PEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DULRING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI e YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEHEST TOTAL LOANS FROM GOVERNME-NTS lJNITED KINGDOM 1968 5,124 576 149 72'i 1.969 4,548 14152 2!54 1.4 O0, j97fl 3,396 i,i52 1)?2 #4, 197i 2,244 1,152 I-,7 1.27¶l 1972 1,092 1,092 3 1,1 UNTrFET) S TATJTE 1968 128,563 /1 21,030 2,9L6 23,976 1969 107,,533 31,108 3,18l 3)4,289 1970 76,1426 12,866 1,734 14,6oo 1971 63,561 5W900 972 6,872 1972 57,661 5,965 794 6,732 1973 51,695 2,581 621 3,'01* 197k 49,114 1,835 5)43 2,37,9 1975 h17,279 1,932 517 2,blt8 1976 45,349 2, 0J 62,51 1977 43,3222 2,026 L6:L 2,487 1976 1,296 2,027 1433 2,461 1979 39,270 2,026 kO6 2,L32 1980 37,2143 2,026 37 ,lhol 1981 35,217 2,027 351. _,378 1982 33,190 2,026 323 2,350 Zee fcotnote at end of table. REV 313 Jil2 Table 72: UNITED ARAB REPUBIC - ESTJXATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYMENTS OCN EXTERNAL FUFBLI DEB'T OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBUSED AS OF' JIJNE 30, 1968 (CONT.) Debt, Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 12 DEBT OUT ST (BEGIN OF' PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLU:INI AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTW EST TOTAL WLANS FRCM GOVERNMENT S U.S.S.R. 1968 657,07? /1 28,674 5. 6 32 34,306 1969 647,% 2 51 27,865 5,187 33,052 1970 619,389 64,562 10,97L, 75, 536 1971 554,82,5 63,4ol 9,73 E 73,139 1972 h91,4 h26 59,918 8,9665 68.583 1973 431,5C08 57,951 7,148C 65,'431 1974 373,5$7 57,1d 6,0393 63,807 1975 316,1b 3 57,106 5,320 62,426 1976 259,037 46,090 4,255 50,3h5 1977 212,9b71 50,664 3,1465 54,129 1978 162,283 43,535 2,561 l6,3o96 1979 118,7b8 L43,383 1,8h3h 45,21]? 1980 75,365 36,748 1,112 37,860 1981 38,617 36,747 56 37,303 1982 1,868 1,868 22 1,890 YUGMSI.AVI A 1968 25,314 /1 2,936 414 3,350 1969 23,0129 4,021 6417 4,668 197n 19Mclo 3,960 532 4,492 1971 15,(I4a 3.751 41 8 4149 1972 i1,297 3#67i 3ll5 3,975 1973 7.,E27 3#49ii 193 3,683 1974 4,1.37 2,733 91 2,814 1975 1,404 1,106 18 1#124 1976 2982 9 8* 298 See footnote aLt end of table. See footnote at end of table. RT VISED Table 7c': UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC - ESTIMTED FUTURE SERVICE PA:METS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLIJDING UNDISBURSED AS OF J'MNE 30, 1968 (CONT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Pa,ge 13 DERT OUTST ( EGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTIm YEAR UNDISOURSED ZATION INTEREST TOI;AL NATIONALIZATION 1968 1I496 /1 291 42 ;!33 1969 129 582 s9 1!1 1.970 582 582 25 I! 08 /1 Anxount outstanding is as of June 30, 1968; payments are for the entire r;ear. Statistical Services Divi;ion Economics Department August 8, 1L969 )