Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME II Sector Reports Front Cover: © IOM/Muse Mohammed Inside Cover: © UNDP Somalia Table of Contents Acknowledgements 2 List of Figures 3 List of Tables 4 Methodology 5 Introduction 8 Productive Sectors 10 Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production 10 Agriculture – Livestock 22 Agriculture – Fisheries 33 Physical Sectors 42 Water Supply and Sanitation 42 Transport 50 Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management 57 Social Sectors 66 Health 66 Nutrition 78 Education 85 Cross-cutting Sectors 96 Food Security 96 Urban Development and Municipal Services 106 Livelihoods and Employment 114 Social Protection and Safety Nets 122 Gender 131 Governance 138 Conflict 145 Displacement 153 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 165 Acknowledgments The DINA was prepared under the overall leadership of the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development in partnership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS). It was undertaken with strategic support from the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union, within the framework of the 2008 Joint EU-UN-WB Declaration on Post- Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning. Financial support has been provided by the European Union under the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction program implemented by the WB-led Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Ipsos provided remote sensing and survey support, and Courage Services, Inc. provided remote sensing services. More than 180 national and international experts from the FGS, FMS, the Benadir Regional Administration, the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union worked intensively across 18 sector/cross-cutting groups to collect, validate and analyze data, conduct field visits to consult with sub-national authorities, international and national non-governmental organizations and civil society stakeholders, to determine recovery needs and identify interventions for medium-term recovery and long-term resilience. 2 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment List of Figures Figure 1: Damages to Physical Infrastructure and Banana Trees (in USD) 14 Figure 2: Somalia Livestock Exports 2012-17 24 Figure 3: Estimated Economic Losses from Livestock due to Drought – Somalia, 2016-17 25 Figure 4: People Per Functional Borehole and Number of Boreholes by Region (Non-Riverine Regions) 45 Figure 5: Potential Drought Vulnerability Based on Water Point Composition (Non-Riverine Regions) 45 Figure 6: Boreholes and Drought Edges 46 Figure 7: Distribution of Needs By Region 49 Figure 8: Map of Somalia Showing Road Network and Access Constraints 52 Figure 9: Examples of Satellite Imagery 53 Figure 10: Provisional Road Condition 54 Figure 11: IDP Settlements and Roads in Kismayo 55 Figure 12: Land Degradation Affecting Vegetation Biomass in Different Regions of Somalia, 2017 59 Figure 13: Healthcare Facilities in Somalia 68 Figure 14: Map of Healthcare Facilities in Somalia 69 Figure 15: Somalia Health Snapshot 70 Figure 16: Baseline Data on the Health Sector 72 Figure 17: Number of People Receiving Primary or Basic Secondary Care (Per Month) 73 Figure 18: AWD/Cholera Cases: Somalia Districts Affected by AWD and Attack Rates to Week 34 75 Figure 19: GAM Trends in Different Regions in Somalia 2007-2014 79 Figure 20: GAM and SAM Trend of Somalia 80 Figure 21: Malnutrition Projection Over Time in Somalia 80 Figure 22: Critical Issues with Food Access 82 Figure 23: Comparison of Children enrolled against forced out of school 90 Figure 24: Teachers and Learning Materials data, Somalia Education Cluster, 2016 91 Figure 25: Number of People in Crisis (IPC 3) and Emergency (IPC 4) 99 Figure 26: Number of People Assisted through Food and/or Cash, Jan-Sep 2017 100 Figure 27: Monthly Average Number of Beneficiaries Assisted Through Food and/or Cash 100 Figure 28: Maps 1-2: IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase - Projections 104 Figure 29: Beneficiaries Reached from the Sectoral 3W Reporting 124 Figure 30: Life Cycle Risks 128 Figure 31: Action Plan 129 Figure 32: Somalia: Fatalities by District and drought intensity 147 Figure 33: Evidence of new IDP shelters in the vicinity of Baidoa 156 Figure 34: Evidence of new IDP shelters in the vicinity of Mogadishu 156 Figure 35: Official Development Assistance (ODA) for Somalia, 2007 – 2017 168 3 List of Tables Table 1: Summary Damage and Losses for All Crops *(in USD) 13 Table 2: Damages to Banana Trees (in USD), by Region 15 Table 3: Summary of Damage and Loss for All Crops (in physical units) 16 Table 4: Summary Losses for Crops (in USD) 17 Table 5: Summary Needs for Crops (In USD) 21 Table 6: Total Estimated Livestock Population before Drought 23 Table 7: Livestock Export (2012-2017) 24 Table 8: Summary Table of Damage and Losses for Sector (in local currency and USD) 27 Table 9: Summary Needs for Livestock 32 Table 10: Baseline data for income from fishing 34 Table 11: Damage and Losses for Sector (in local currency and USD) 35 Table 12: Freshwater fish market prices – Mogadishu Market 15/10/17 36 Table 13: Distribution of Needs by Region 39 Table 14: Summary Needs for Fisheries 40 Table 15: Summary Needs for Water Supply and Sanitation 49 Table 16: Classified Road network in Somalia (km) 50 Table 17: Length of Regional Roads according to Class (km) 51 Table 18: Length of roads mapped using satellite imagery 53 Table 19: Summary Needs for Transport 56 Table 20: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on vegetation resources 58 Table 21: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on biodiversity 60 Table 22: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on soil resources and soil quality 61 Table 23: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on household energy and charcoal production 62 Table 24: Summary Needs for Environment, Clean Energy, and Resource Management 64 Table 25: Snapshot of the Somali Health System Progress towards MDGs in Comparison to Rest of Sub Saharan Africa 67 Table 26: Summary Table of Damage and Losses for Sector (in USD) 73 Table 27: Numbers of Various Health Cadres 74 Table 28: Summary Needs for Health 77 Table 29: Nutrition Sector Losses 83 Table 30: Summary Needs for Nutrition 85 Table 31: Estimated Frequency and impacts of emergencies in Somaliland 2012-2016 85 Table 32: Somalia Drought displacements, top destinations and top departure regions 86 Table 33: Key Baseline Data for the Sector 88 Table 34: Summary Needs for Education 95 Table 35: Pre-drought (Baseline) Average Number of Acutely Food Insecure People in Somalia by Region 98 Table 36: Impact of Drought on # of People Requiring Urgent Food Security Assistance 101 Table 37: Commercial Import of Cereals in Somalia (in tonnes) 101 Table 38: The estimated cost of food security assistance (cash and/food) due to the current drought (in USD) 102 Table 39: The estimated cost of increased commercial imports due to the current drought 103 Table 40: Summary Needs for Food Security 105 Table 41: Summary Needs for Urban Development and Municipal Services 113 Table 42: Estimated Direct Losses in the Livestock Sector 117 Table 43: Summary Needs for Livelihoods and Employment 121 Table 44: Characteristics of Vulnerability 126 Table 45: Summary Needs for Social Protection and Safety Nets 130 Table 46: Detailed Short, Medium, and Long-term Recovery Needs 136 Table 47: Summary Needs for Gender 138 Table 48: Summary Needs for Governance 145 Table 49: Summary Needs for Displacement 164 Table 50: Summary Needs for Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience 175 4 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Methodology The DINA follows the standard PDNA methodology developed by the UN System, World Bank and the European Union that incorporates a collection of analytical methods, tools and techniques developed for post-disaster assessments and recovery planning, ensuring sector-to-sector comparability and homogeneity in the definition of basic concepts of damages, losses and post-disaster recovery needs. The assessment builds on primary and secondary data related to damage and loss in the identified sectors, which are provided by FGS, FMS and development partners who supported the DINA. Damage and Loss Quantification: The effects of the drought on each sector have been assessed in terms of damages and losses. Damage is defined as total or partial destruction of physical assets existing in the affected area. Damages occur •  during and immediately after the disaster and are measured in physical units (i.e., number of damaged boreholes, head of livestock, hectares of land, etc.). Their monetary values are expressed as the replacement costs according to prices prevailing just before the event. Losses are defined as changes in economic flows arising from the disaster. They occur until full economic recovery •  and reconstruction is achieved, in some cases lasting for several years, but for the purposes of this assessment, losses have been projected up through December 2017. Typical losses include: the disruption in the production and access to goods and services, disruption in governance, and losses associated with increased or changed risk (for example, in a drought/flood cycle, the increased poverty, malnutrition, livelihoods and welfare losses and less sustainability of life cycles of the affected population). Classification and Quantification of Recovery Needs: Recovery needs are the costs of recommended interventions and resources that include: the reconstruction needs estimated as the requirements for financing reconstruction, replacement or repair of the physical assets that were damaged or destroyed by the disaster; and recovery needs estimated on the basis of the financial resources required for the rehabilitation of basic services, reactivation of productive activities and economic flows such as trade and commerce, or immediate reactivation of personal or household income. Recovery needs also include capacity building and operational costs for service delivery that are necessary for the implementation of interventions. Costing for recovery needs include differentials for building back better to consider quality improvements and DRR measures to be implemented to increase resilience against future disasters. For the purpose of this assessment, recovery needs are classified as short-term (Year 1); medium-term (Years 2-3); and long-term (Years 4+). Short-term recovery needs are distinct from emergency humanitarian needs. Rather than representing emergency lifesaving interventions, short-term recovery needs represent interventions of a developmental nature that need to be implemented in the short-term to have quicker results and impact on the overall recovery program. An example would be the immediate injection of capacity within the Government to lead and coordinate the recovery efforts. Recovery needs, especially in the case of a slow-onset disaster, are typically cumulative for the duration of the event (number of years of drought for example). Given the ongoing crisis due to the disaster, a large portion of the needs are represented by the humanitarian phase needs that can continue for an extended period of time. Recovery needs for the recovery and resilience building to overcome the humanitarian phase, such as the cost of relaunching economic activities, restoration of incomes, livelihoods and employment, are additional to the humanitarian response. These may include, for example, inputs required for recovery (such as livestock treatment or seeds) and will be less than the value of outputs lost due to drought (such as cattle mortality decreasing income from export, or crop failure decreasing the volume available for sale). 5 Data Collection and Validation: The key source of information for the estimation of damages and needs was primary data from the FGS and FMS, and secondary data available from existing or on-going humanitarian/sectoral assessments. Interviews were undertaken with a wide range of stakeholders, including government officials, staff from UN and other development agencies and academic and civil society experts. In addition, primary data and qualitative data were provided by Ipsos through remote sensing techniques using satellite imagery and from on-the-ground field surveys conducted by the Ipsos Somalia team. Data validation techniques included the use of remote sensing techniques to validate key impact data for crops, livestock and water resources. Further validation of data was performed using process verification techniques and empirical plausibility checks. The assessment included the collection of pre-drought baseline data to evaluate the drought impact and to determine the overall recovery strategy. Sector-specific valuation methods have been included in the relevant sectors. The Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development (MoPIED) and UN colleagues coordinated field visits to five Federal Member States (FMS): Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West, and consultation with Benadir Regional Administration authorities. The visits comprised consultations with state-level line ministries, UN agencies operational in the states, and representatives of civil society regarding data collection, needs assessment and recovery strategies. Remote Sensing and Field Surveys in Support of the Somalia DINA Remote sensing applications were used to delineate the spatial and temporal extent of the drought to provide an objective tool to quantify the impacts in key sectors. With the assistance of Ipsos Inc., one of the world’s largest data services firms, and Courage Services Inc., high-resolution satellite imagery such as Landsat (the longest-running enterprise for the acquisition of satellite imagery of Earth) and indicators such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (showing the state and health of vegetation) were analyzed to provide vital data on affected populations, drought-stressed areas and sector-specific impact information. In addition, a survey was conducted of over 1,000 households in 13 districts in conjunction with a survey of Somali healthcare facilities (HCFs) to understand the impact of the drought on nutrition, health and livelihoods, particularly among internally displaced persons (IDPs). Agriculture Remote sensing was utilized to gauge total estimated area of production and total area loss within six major areas of Somalia, including Bay, Galguduud, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba. MODIS NDVI 250M was utilized to determine baseline NDVI calculation, and imagery from 2016-2017 was first utilized for drought level NDVI calculation. Raster images were compared to estimate average NDVI loss. Areas with above-average NDVI loss were targeted for identification and/or verification of activity at previously known or classifier-identified medium/ large-scale bananas, papayas, tomatoes and lemon large cultivation areas either through targeted review of 0.8-3M resolution Planet Labs imagery (for medium/large scale lemon tree/bananas holdings), WV3/4 30cm imagery for sampled confirmation of smaller crops (where available) and/or by cross-checking imagery results against previous ground-based agricultural baseline crop cultivation estimation studies in these areas. Limitations of this methodology include areas with relative cloud cover in either baseline/drought imagery, as well as potential joint planting 6 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment of crops within reviewed areas, areas of small-scale farming and/or lack of pre-existing ground sampling in examined areas. Information was cross-compared with FAO-estimated crop areas, as well as with expert- provided cultivation and loss estimates within designated regions. A major market and farm-based survey was conducted to identify farmgate (volume) and market prices for 14 major commodities. Data was used to assist sector specialists with damage and loss estimates. Fisheries Whereas the use of such techniques was discussed with IPSOS and thought to be useful in future for boat counts in marine fisheries (provided that we use very high resolutions satellite imagery), the use of boats as an estimate of fishing activity in the inland fisheries was not factored into the analysis done by the Fishery Sector Team. Displacement (i) Very High-resolution satellite imagery from 2014 and 2015, as well as from August 2017 was used to identify IDP settlements and estimate IDP populations prior to the drought and during the drought periods for Kismayo. IDP structures were determined based on existing imagery signatures, including roofing structure, irregularly-shaped constructions, and tent structures; (ii) Multiple NGO publications and local surveys, including IOM, Norwegian Refugee Services, UNICEF, among others, were examined to further refine areas for imagery analysis and examine IDP settlement patterns. Each IDP structure was counted, its area size accounted for, and roofing type determined. Calculations were cross-examined with UN procurement documents in the areas in which imagery analysis identified organized tent settlements. Data was used to determine average and absolute capacity for population incidence and density within Kismayo. Pre-drought and post-drought settlement maps and IDP estimates for the city were produced as a result. WASH/Health Access Remote sensing and NGO data were used to estimate IDP access to WASH/health facilities within three major urban areas, including Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo: (i) Satellite imagery was used to estimate IDP populations and settlement patterns within these cities; (ii) UNICEF data for WASH/Health facilities was utilized to understand baseline distribution and functionality of facilities; (iii) Open street map (OSM) road data (September 2017) and high resolution imagery (August 2017) were utilized to identify which road networks, including primary, secondary and tertiary roads, connected WASH and health facilities to IDP settlements; (iv) IRC, IOM, World Bank High Frequency and Ipsos household surveys were used to understand primary and secondary sources of water and health provisions. Conflict (i) ACLED conflict incidence data for Somalia from pre-drought (2014-2016) and drought periods (2016- 2017) was used to identify percentage change in conflict incidence at district/region levels for multiple types of conflict (battle-no change of territory, violence against civilians, remote violence, riots/protests); (ii) Conflict percentage change activity was layed over drought impact areas to identify any potential cross- correlation between drought and conflict; (iii) In urban areas with high influx of IDPs, pre-drought vs. drought IDP settlement patterns were reviewed to understand whether increase in IDPs was an additional vector potentially responsible for increase in violence. Environment (i) Remote sensing was used to estimate NDVI change (2014-2017) to estimate drought conditions in Somalia; (ii) FAO Landsat-derived land cover/land use areas were reviewed to identify grazing areas; (iii) Pixel-level overlap was identified between grazing areas and most affected/moderately affected by drought areas to estimate percentage of grazing areas likely decimated by the drought. Information was further mapped at district level. 7 Introduction The latest in a cycle of devastating protracted dry spells over the last 25 years, the current drought and the resulting humanitarian emergency have worsened existing humanitarian and development challenges in Somalia. Decades of insecurity, political instability, drought and food insecurity have disrupted desperately needed services, devastated human capital and physical infrastructure, and contributed to systematic impoverishment and displacement of the population. The ongoing 2016-17 drought has plunged the majority of the population into food insecurity. At the peak of the drought, an estimated 6.7 million people – more than half of the population – were acutely food insecure and in need of humanitarian assistance.1 The below average rainfall has resulted in a significant depletion of water resources for agricultural consumption and livestock body conditions have deteriorated substantially. Food insecurity and scarcity of drinking water, coupled with displacement, has contributed to a stark rise in malnutrition and water-borne disease. The impact of drought on the Somali people is informed by an interrelated set of factors that include the environment, governance, conflict, displacement and poverty. This confluence of factors has created an exceedingly complex crisis in the Horn of Africa, and it demands an equally complex analysis of the underlying drivers of drought, their impact on the Somali people and the strategies that can pave the way toward recovery and resilience. The Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA), a process led by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in partnership with the Federal Member States (FMS), the World Bank (WB), United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU), aims to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate shocks, strengthen resilience and significantly reduce the future risk of famine in Somalia. Volume II of the DINA presents in depth the data collected and analyzed for each of the 18 sectors and cross-cutting themes. The assessment reports cover: • Overview of pre-drought conditions • DINA findings and drought impact • Cross-cutting considerations (when relevant) • Recovery and resilience strategies, including costing of recovery needs 1 UNOCHA. 2017. Somalia: Humanitarian Dashboard – July 2017. 8 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM/Muse Mohammed 9 Productive Sectors Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed During severe dry spells, the Juba and Shabelle Rivers, Crop Production along which most irrigated crop production takes place, are strained as livestock herders also move closer. Most Somali soils are rich in essential nutrients like potassium I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions and sulfur. Rain-fed soils have become high in pH and Already impacted by the civil war, the crop sector has low in nitrogen and phosphorus as a result of poor been increasingly buffeted by the country’s fragile farming practices, restricting the potential of rain-fed natural environment, and its arid and semi-arid climate crop production. has experienced more extreme and frequent cycles of Agro-pastoralists, estimated at 22.8 percent of the total drought and floods. Crop production in the southcentral population2, are mostly poor, dependent on either/both regions moreover has been severely affected by settled crop production and livestock rearing, and to insecurity, weak governments, and the consequent a lesser extent on forestry products. Average holdings deterioration of flood control, irrigation, and transport of banana, lemon, grapefruit and papaya plantations infrastructures, in addition to lack of research and are 20 ha, 14 ha, 10 ha, and 0.5 ha, respectively. Most extension services. From almost self-sufficiency in cereals cereal and sesame production, however, is undertaken on the eve of the civil war, domestic production in the by small-scale farmers with land holdings between 2 ha early 2010s provided, on average, only 22 percent, and and 5 ha, and most other crop production is undertaken never more than 50 percent even in the best agricultural by subsistence farmers with an average of only 0.2–3 ha seasons, of the country’s per capita cereal needs. of land. According to the FAO, the smallholder-farming The major staple food crops cultivated under both sub-sector accounts overall for 80 percent of total crop rain-fed and irrigated conditions are sorghum (mainly output and 70 percent of marketed agricultural produce. rain-fed, for a USD 47.6 million annual gross value, Commercial and small-scale irrigation farming is averaged over the six growing seasons from Deyr common along the two major rivers in southern Somalia. 2013 to Gu 2016), maize (mainly irrigated, USD 35.4 Rain-fed farming, mixed in with livestock rearing, is million), sesame (mainly irrigated, USD 33.3 million), common in the inter-riverine areas and also in the and cowpeas (mainly rain-fed, USD 15.4 million). Rice northwestern regions of Somaliland. In the northern production is small (USD 1.5 million) but important in coastal regions and throughout the northeastern regions the Middle Shebelle region. Many fruit crops are also the annual rainfall is a very low 100mm, supporting only grown under irrigated conditions, but virtually all only gums and resins production from wild trees and some for domestic consumption, unlike in the pre-war period, oasis farming. including banana (USD 82.3 million baseline value), lemon (USD 39.3 million) and watermelon (USD 31.5 Some 3 million ha, about 5 percent of the total land, million), which are the only fruit crops currently exported are cultivable, with 700,000 ha almost equally split (dry lemons from Mogadishu, and watermelons across between land under controlled irrigation (using pumps) the Somaliland border into Djibouti), papaya (USD and under flood recession irrigation and 2.3 million ha 23.1. million), and grapefruit (USD 19.7 million), among under rain-fed conditions. However, due to prolonged others. In the arid northeastern and northcentral part of insecurity, most of the extensive irrigation and flood the country, dates (USD 121.7 million) and frankincense control infrastructure is in extremely poor condition. (USD 87.6 million) are also grown, including for export, As a result, only a fraction (about 111,000 ha) of the especially the latter. Many vegetables are also grown for irrigable land was recently irrigated and cultivated in domestic consumption under both rain-fed and irrigated southern Somalia, representing less than 20 percent conditions, the major ones being tomatoes (USD 102 of its potential, and about 50 percent of the land million) and onions (USD 77 million). irrigated (222,950 ha) just before the civil war. However, 2 UNFPA, 2015. 10 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM/Muse Mohammed in Somaliland’s northwestern regions and in Puntland’s exports after the civil war. Dry lemon exports are the only oasis farming, areas irrigated with groundwater have sizable component nowadays within the vegetables and expanded considerably. The total irrigated area in fruits export category, whose combined export value is Somaliland is estimated at around 35,000 ha (or 10 only about 20 percent of pre-war levels. percent of the total arable area), supporting about 4,000 farming households. For Puntland, small oasis farms There has also been a steady and large increase in cover about 2,848 ha. agricultural imports since the late 1980s, reaching almost USD 1.5 billion by 2015 from an annual average In the past three decades, some major structural changes of only about USD 82 million in the late 1980s. The stand out in Somalia’s crop agricultural production combination of increased domestic food demand, and trade. The precise extent of crop agriculture’s mostly for cereals, sugar, and other preparations, driven contribution to the country’s gross domestic product by rapid population growth and urbanization and largely (GDP) is unfortunately not known because of lack of supported by remittances, and the collapse of domestic reliable estimates. Historically, this sector represented crop production have led to this massive increase in about 27.2 percent of the country’s GDP, but its share is food imports. believed to have reduced much in recent years given the collapse in both cereals and banana production. About The sector’s performance, moreover, has been negatively 49 percent of the population still lives in rural areas, and affected in the last decades by severe environmental about 46 percent of the employed persons are working degradation of the country’s rangelands and forested in agriculture, with 25 percent in crops cultivation and areas and by climate change experienced in the entire 7 percent in related activities like forestry. Recorded Horn of Africa region. By 2014, total forest cover was only export of sesame seeds have fallen back to around about 10 percent of the country’s land area, compared USD 34 million in the last two years, after reaching an to 62 percent in 1980. The main factor responsible for historical peak of USD 40 million in 2014 and are now the the large-scale deforestation of the rangelands has been largest crop export, due to the total collapse of banana the massive and unsustainable cutting of Acacia trees to Productive Sectors | 11 make charcoal. This unsustainable exploitation of natural 2017, many parts of the country also received below- resources, especially forests and grasslands, has greatly average, sporadic and scattered rainfall, with an early amplified the vulnerability of the country’s already fragile cessation reported in other parts of the northeastern, ecosystems to weather shocks and to climate change. central, and southern regions. Together with a still low level of the rivers in southcentral Somalia through In the last four decades, agricultural production April, the shortfall of rains in many regions left a high in Somalia has been severely affected by eight portion of areas under cereal cultivation either highly or major droughts. The consequences of such massive moderately affected by the drought. The northwestern deforestation, other environmental degradation of the regions of Somaliland, however, experienced growth of rangelands from poorly regulated human activity and both pasture and crop production, as they continued to from overgrazing, erratic and diminishing water flows in benefit from rains through August. its major rivers due to much expanded use of water in their upstream basins in the Ethiopian highlands, and According to remote sensing data, the least affected intensifying global warming pose severe threats to the southern regions during the most recent Gu season future recovery, resilience and growth prospects of the were Bay and Lower Shebelle, with 30 percent and 44 crop sector. percent respectively of their areas normally under cereal cultivation either highly or moderately affected by the drought. This share was 50 percent in the middle Juba, II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact rising to a range for all other cereal growing regions During the October-December 2016 Deyr growing in the south between 62 percent (in Hiraan) and 77 season, across most of the country and especially in the percent (in Gedo). southern agricultural areas, a persistent lack of rainfall led to extensive crop failures and record low vegetation Due to the drought affecting southcentral Somalia, the cover and soil moisture conditions. The impact of the Shabelle River experienced very low riverbed in 2016- Deyr season drought was amplified by the effects of 2017. This resulted in lack of water reaching the Lower the poor rains during the previous March to May 2016 Shabelle region during the critical Deyr harvest and the Gu rainfall season and a severe drought in the northern Gu planting season and severe damage to irrigated regions of the country in 2015. This had already led to staple food crops (e.g. maize, sesame, cowpeas) as well significant losses in crop and pasture production (actually as fruits (especially bananas) and vegetables. The Juba a virtual collapse in 2015 in the northwestern regions of River flow, however, was only moderately affected by Somaliland), weakening the capacity of households to the drought and thus its irrigated crops sustained only deal with new major shocks. little damages and losses. In some cases, the regions in the Juba valley even recorded some production gains In the southern agro pastoral areas, the Deyr 2016 crop compared to the baseline period. production among poor households was a fraction of that during the baseline period of 2013-2015. In the In the planting month of April, however, river levels northeastern and northcentral pastoral areas, limited showed wide geographical variations, they were 8-62 oasis crop production was also badly affected. In the percent lower than in 2015. The almost normal levels of northwestern areas, however, near average to above- the two main rivers during the last three months of the average late 2016 rainfall supported near-normal cereal Gu 2017 season allowed for some recovery of the main production (as well as favorable livestock conditions). annual irrigated crops, maize, sesame, and vegetables, but fruit crops including bananas and agrumes will take Following the failed Deyr 2016 harvest, the drought a longer time to recover. persisted and actually intensified except for the northwestern regions of Somaliland for three-four Damages and Losses months through March 2017, causing further major damage and losses to irrigated perennial tree crops Damages like bananas. The drought only eased after March, but the arrival of the rains at the time of normal planting in The main direct damages reported were (i.e. loss to April was delayed. Except for a few places in Puntland, physical infrastructure and banana trees): damages to Somaliland and the southern regions of Bay, Lower and the canals walls and from additional silting and sand Middle Juba that received good rains in May-June of being blown into the canal beds; and damages to the 12 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 1: Summary of Damages and Losses for All Crops *(in USD) Damages and Losses Baseline Public DALO Private DALO Total DALO Asset/ Production Values USD USD % USD % USD % Damages to 108,990,000 10,899,000 10% 10,899,000 10% Irrigation Infrastructure Damages to 85,400,000 52,890,000 62% 52,890,000 61% Banana Trees Losses for Sorghum 47,552,704 22,097,918 46% 22,097,918 46% Losses for Maize 35,428,924 12,397,503 35% 12,397,503 35% Losses for Sesame 33,333,600 27,530,400 83% 27,530,400 83% Losses for Cowpeas 15,411,201 9,150,693 59% 9,150,693 59% Losses for Rice 3,034,253 1,820,552 60% 1,820,552 60% Losses for Legumes 578,921 358,658 62% 358,658 62% Losses for Banana 82,310,528 55,421,649 67% 55,421,649 67% Losses for Lemon 5,969,613 2,936,858 49% 2,936,858 49% Losses for Grapefruit 19,715,904 10,843,747 55% 10,843,747 55% Losses for Papaya 23,118,121 14,484,948 63% 14,484,948 63% Losses for 31,502,293 23,680,302 75% 23,680,302 75% Watermelon Losses for Dates 12,166,981 11,447,751 94% 11,447,751 94% Losses for Tomatoes 41,022,169 36,663,520 89% 36,663,520 89% Losses for Onions 4,560,057 4,245,497 93% 4,245,497 93% Losses for 87,609,921 14,575,795 17% 14,575,795 17% Frankincense (Boswellia) Total DALO 637,705,190 10,899,000 2% 300,545,790 47% 311,444,790 49% of which: Total 194,390,000 10,899,000 6% 52,890,000 27% 63,789,000 33% Damages of which: Total Losses 443,315,190 247,655,790 56% 247,655,790 56% of which: Main Staple 131,726,429 71,176,514 54% 71,176,514 54% Food Losses of which: Other 311,588,760 176,479,276 57% 176,479,276 57% Crops Losses of which: Fruits, 92,472,911 63,393,605 69% 63,393,605 69% except Bananas of which: Vegetables 45,582,226 40,909,017 90% 40,909,017 90% Productive Sectors | 13 banana trees, most of which could not survive the lack that a large proportion of the previously irrigated land of rains and lack of irrigation (from the drying Shabelle is now rain-fed, with much lower yields, and thus with rivers) until April 2017. In total, the drought-related substantial production losses. damage has been estimated at USD 62.9 million (see Table 1). With banana trees having shallow roots and being unable to survive more than a couple of months of Experts’ best estimate of the overall current damage to lack of rains and lack of irrigation, the drought at its the irrigation network suggests a cumulative 70 percent peak in February-March 2017 caused massive deaths loss of functionality with 60 percent attributable to the of trees (over 2.6 million trees, see Table 2). Over 85 civil war and at most a 10 percent loss of functionality percent of the banana trees in the Afgoi area and attributable to the recent drought. About USD 10.9 about 50 percent in the Jennale area of the Lower million in damages has thus been attributed to the Shabelle region were completely destroyed by the drought in the three Shabelle and Juba regions with the end of the dry season (January-March 2017). The largest canal network (see Figure 1), while about USD only trees that survived the devastating drought 65.4 million has been classified as pre-drought damage. were either those in their infant stage or those on old This deterioration of the irrigation system has meant plantations with their own boreholes. Damages to Irrigation Canals Region Damage Attributed to Drought (USD) Lower Juba 22,575.00 Middle Shabelle 1,965,425.00 Lower Shabelle 8,911,000.0 Totals 10,899,000.00 14 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 2: Damages to Banana Trees, by Region (in USD) Production Area Banana Baseline Trees Baseline Avg. Tree Baseline Tree Trees Lost Monetary Area (per Trees Economic Trees (USD) Loss (tot) Damage (ha) ha) (tot) Value (%) from Tree Loss (USD) Juba River Lower 150 2,000 300,000 $20 6,000,000 21% 63,000 1,260,000 Valley Juba Middle 150 2,000 300,000 $20 6,000,000 21% 63,000 1,260,000 Juba Gedo 50 2,000 100,000 $20 2,000,000 0% 0 - Juba River 350 700,000 14,000,000 18% 126,000 2,520,000 Valley Shabelle Lower 1,535 2,000 3,070,000 $20 61,400,000 75% 2,302,500 46,050,000 River Shabelle Valley Middle 200 2,000 400,000 $20 8,000,000 54% 216,000 4,320,000 Shabelle Hiraan 50 2,000 100,000 $20 2,000,000 0% 0 - Shabelle 1,785 3,570,000 71,400,000 71% 2,518,500 50,370,000 River Valley Grand 2,135 4,270,000 85,400,000 62% 2,644,500 52,890,000 Total Remote sensing was capable of estimating reliably and monetary losses have been estimated, using a the areas under cultivation, and thus the loss of tree combination of available and timely FSNAU production coverage. This was the basis, together with an estimated and price estimates for some staple food crops, while for economic value of USD 20 per (average) tree and a other crops, expert estimates of average baseline yields, density of 2,000 trees per hectare (both figures based on remote sensing for estimating baseline and drought- Somali experts’ advice) for the USD 52.9 million damage affected areas under cultivation, and ad-hoc baseline estimate to banana cultivation from the recent drought. farmgate (large volume) price survey were used. Estimated damages to critical assets for crop cultivation The drought had the largest impact on rain-fed staple from the recent drought are estimated at USD 63.8 food crops (mainly sorghum, cowpeas, and also some million. Other damages related to poor health and rain-fed sesame) in the interriverine regions of Bay and consequent expected loss of productivity over the Bakool, which suffered from a multiple-season lack of medium-term to other fruit trees with stronger and rains starting in early 2016, and on the irrigated crops in deeper root systems (including those for such perennial the Shabelle valley regions (mainly maize, most sesame, crops as lemon, papaya and frankincense and myrrh) is and rice, bananas, and tomatoes, among other crops). believed to be relatively minor, but in any case, cannot be easily quantified. Including the less-affected northwestern regions, the total production volume loss for sorghum was 50 Losses percent, for maize 34 percent, for sesame 83 percent and for cowpeas 59 percent (see Table 3). Many regions The greatest impact of the drought in the agriculture experienced physical losses for these crops of over 90 sector has been on crop production losses arising from percent: for sorghum, 98 percent in Middle Shabelle, 96 both reduced land area under cultivation and much percent in Gedo, and 91 percent in Mudug; for sesame, reduced yields at harvest. For the DINA, both physical 98 percent in Middle Juba and 92 percent in Hiraan. Productive Sectors | 15 Table 3: Summary of Damage and Loss for All Crops (in physical units) Public Private Total MT % MT % MT % Damages Irrigation Infrastructure (kms) 311.4 10% 311.4 10% Banana Trees (no. killed) 2,602,500 61% 2,602,500 61% Losses Sorghum 67,946 50% 67,946 50% Maize 32,273 34% 32,273 34% Sesame 22,942 83% 22,942 83% Cowpeas 10,271 59% 10,271 59% Rice 2,700 60% 2,700 60% Legumes 248 61% 248 61% Bananas 100,523 68% 100,523 68% Lemon 4,210 48% 4,210 48% Grapefruit 12,062 55% 12,062 55% Papaya 4,975 62% 4,975 62% Watermelon 22,096 74% 22,096 74% Dates 6,367 94% 6,367 94% Tomatoes 51,880 88% 51,880 88% Onions 7,417 93% 7,417 93% Frankincense (Boswellia) 2,075 17% 2,075 17% In the rain-fed interiverine regions, which includes the The highest absolute monetary losses (see Table 3) cereal basket of Bay, the losses for sorghum, maize and estimated at USD 23 million each, were recorded in the sesame were as high as 73 percent, 52 percent and 84 Bay region (representing a 74 percent loss compared to percent, respectively. The Shabelle valley regions under the baseline) and the Lower Shabelle region (54 percent both rain-fed and irrigated conditions experienced loss). Various other regions, however, experienced losses as high as 60 percent, 36 percent and 80 percent, monetary losses in percentage terms of over 90 percent respectively, for these three crops. compared to the value of their baseline production: peaks of 98 percent and 96 percent losses in Middle For the country as a whole, the total monetary loss Shabelle and in Gedo, respectively, for sorghum and of associated with all four main staple food crops’ output 98 percent and 92 percent in Middle Juba and Hiraan, is estimated at USD 71.2 million, with that for maize and respectively, for sesame. sorghum combined at USD 34.5 million, for sesame at USD 27.5 million and for cowpeas at 9.2 million (see Table In both physical and monetary terms (as illustrated in 3). Note, however, that much reduced crop production Table 3) some regions also experienced small gains for in 2015 in the northwestern regions and in mid-2016 in some staple food crops: the Lower and Middle Juba the southcentral regions of the country compared to regions for sorghum, maize and cowpeas; Togdeer in the two-three preceding annual averages, due to earlier Somaliland for sorghum and maize; and W-Galbeed drought conditions, had already caused substantial for sorghum. No region however experienced additional monetary losses to farmers. an overall monetary net gain for all four staple food crops combined. 16 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Estimated physical and monetary losses have been percent, and Bay with 75 percent. Losses in the Lower also very large for crops, which include two minor and Middle Shabelle regions, which suffered from the staple food crops (rice and legumes), banana and other failed rainfall and the drying of the river, were 74 and fruits, two main vegetables (tomatoes and onions), 68 percent, respectively. In the Juba valley, losses were and frankincense and myrrh. As illustrated in Table 3, smaller but still substantial, ranging from 54 percent regarding fruits, physical output losses ranged from 48 in the Middle Juba region to 30 percent in the Gedo percent for lemons to 94 percent for dates, with banana region. In absolute terms, the region most affected has recording an overall 68 percent output loss. For the main been the Lower Shabelle region, which recorded a USD vegetables, losses were in the 88-93 percent range. 94.6 million loss, almost half of it due to banana, and the Reflecting the improved level of the river since April, rest due to other fruits and vegetables. The northeastern rice which is only grown around Jowhar in the Middle Bari region came a distant second, with a USD 23.8 Shabelle region, recorded a combined loss of 60 percent million loss due to a combination of high losses of dates through mid-2017. For frankincense, the Puntland and vegetables and small losses of frankincense. The government estimates a 17 percent volume loss. Middle Shabelle and the Middle Juba also suffered large absolute losses, of USD 14.1 million and 11.8 In monetary terms, these losses total USD 176.5 million, million, respectively. The northcentral region of Sanaag equivalent to 57 percent of the estimated baseline experienced an USD 8.8 million loss, all of it accounted production value for these other crops (see Table 3). In for by the reduced frankincense production, while the percentage terms the regions most affected were in the interriverine southern region of Bay recorded a USD 7.6 northeast and central zones, with Nugaal and Galgadud million loss due to its much-reduced production of the recording 93 percent losses, followed by Mudug with 78 main staple food crops.3 Table 4: Summary Losses for Crops (in USD) Cost (USD) Crops Somaliland Puntland Galmudug Hirabelle South West Jubaland Benadir Total State Cowpeas - 981,833 3,366,833 333,847 5,226,893 (758,714) - 9,150,693 Maize 3,559,500 - - 2,025,465 7,901,412 (1,088,873) - 12,397,503 Sesame - - - 1,590,400 21,658,400 4,281,600 - 27,530,400 Sorghum 132,750 21,267 99,267 6,157,422 13,644,706 2,042,506 - 22,097,918 Banana - - - 6,634,901 45,954,778 2,831,970 - 55,421,649 Lemon - 104,888 - 404,567 2,022,836 404,567 - 2,936,858 Grapefruit - - - - 10,843,747 - - 10,843,747 Papaya - - 547,851 - 13,696,282 240,814 - 14,484,948 Watermelon - - - 404,567 14,834,127 8,441,607 - 23,680,302 Dates - 11,447,751 - - - - - 11,447,751 Tomatoes 17,232 9,733,960 3,176,226 4,551,380 13,283,287 5,918,667 - 36,680,752 Onions 50,667 2,100,000 33,333 900,405 1,211,759 - - 4,296,164 Legumes - 14,145 - - 344,513 - - 358,658 Rice - - - 1,820,552 - - - 1,820,552 Frankencense 8,745,477 14,575,795 - - - - - 23,321,271 Total Losses 12,505,625 38,979,638 7,223,511 24,823,505 150,622,742 22,314,144 - 256,469,165 Source: FAO and Centre for Consultancy Research and Development Enterprise (CCORD), 2017. “Somalia - Crop Yield Assessment Analysis  3 Report Gu 2017”, September 2017 Productive Sectors | 17 Drought Impact the international humanitarian actors have reached over 2,800,000 people with emergency in-kind or cash/ The Aggregate Economic and Human voucher emergency assistance, including ensuring that Development Impact rural people remain on their farms in preparation for the According to the 2016 post-Deyr drought impact next planting season. assessment by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners, over The severe aggregate economic impact of the 1.6 million people were already classified as in ‘crisis’ (IPC widespread drought on Somalia’s agricultural sector, Phase 3) or ‘emergency’ (IPC Phase 4) in January 2017. its second most important source of economic activity, This was as a consequence of both the high livestock- employment, and exports, has been unprecedented, related mortality and output losses among pastoralists with total aggregate production losses estimated at USD and agro-pastoralists, but also of the major reductions 176.5 and total damages to assets estimated at USD 63.8 in crop production (mostly but not solely in the southern million, representing almost 4 percent of the country’s agricultural areas) during the failed Deyr 2016 season, 2016 nominal GDP (estimated at USD 6.2 billion by the coming on the heels of a poor Gu 2016 harvest in the IMF and the World Bank). southern regions and a collapse of staple food crop production in the northwestern regions of Somaliland Despite such high damages and losses and the many in 2015 due to already severe drought conditions since challenges that it faces, the country’s crops agricultural late 2015. In the southern agro pastoral areas, the Deyr sector remains both viable and critical to the country’s 2016 production among poor households was a fraction economic recovery and long-term development. If rains of that during the baseline period of 2013-2015. By early and especially river levels return and stay at normal 2017, poor households had already exhausted their levels, Somalia has much room for expanded production cereal stocks and had become heavily dependent on of irrigated cereals, oilseeds, and fruits and vegetables. markets for food. However, price spikes and declining The country still possesses large and partly unexploited incomes had made household access to food very costly areas with fertile alluvial soils for staple cereals, oil seeds, and sometimes impossible. Many were coping by selling legumes, and horticulture crops that can support both a atypically high numbers of livestock, purchasing food more efficient production and an expanded cultivated on credit, and seeking assistance through community area for both domestic and export markets. Its forests, support. Of highest concern were and still are the furthermore, still provide gums and resins for both export agropastoral areas in the Bay and Bakool regions, where and local markets (as well as charcoal for cooking). Deyr production was a near complete failure and poor households owned only a few livestock to sell as a For its farmers to place more land under cultivation coping mechanism. and to achieve higher productivity, under both irrigated and rain-fed conditions, however, improvements to the The drying of the Shabelle River during the Deyr season country’s flood control and irrigation infrastructure, seed and lasting until March 2017 also caused a major quality, pest management, and related GAPs are needed. displacement of riverine farming communities, many In turn, all such improvements require stronger security of whose members abandoned their properties of in the rural areas of southern Somalia and a supportive agricultural land and moved to refugee camps in and and efficient public sector in all regions. Despite the near Mogadishu and other major cities like Baidoa, in fact that many current constraints stifle the possibility of search of food and other essentials for their households. increasing yields and land under cultivation, improved An intensification of conflict over agricultural land, farm management practices and introduction of climate- pasture and water resources among agro-pastoralists smart agriculture (CSA), such as drought-resilient crops, who remained on their lands, those returning after use of conservation agriculture, and drip irrigation months of displacement, and others was recorded. technologies, would make a large difference to key rain- fed crop such as sorghum and legume and pulses, for While there is no specific information about the number which both yields and total area under cultivation can be of farmers displaced by the cumulative drought through doubled or even tripled. mid-2017 (i.e. through the most recent Gu season), the water shortages, and the livestock and crops losses affected over 5 million people, mostly from rural III. Cross-cutting Considerations areas, with over 1.4 million persons still facing crisis Gender: Somali women are heavily involved in crop or emergency levels of food insecurity. The drought farming on par with men and they also dominate retail has forced many rural people to leave their homes in marketing. For example, in banana production, women search of alternative sources of food and water; 926,000 fertilize and transport bananas to packing centers, while people were displaced between November 2016 and men irrigate and harvest the bananas. Women are also September 2017. According to the food security cluster, 18 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment mainly responsible for marketing all fruits and vegetables agro-processing, and in seeking to adopt climate-smart for domestic consumption. It is estimated that women practices. No commercial investment is expected by the provide more than 60 percent of labor in subsistence public sector for either recovery, or resilience, or growth, farming. In crop production, women and men share but only supportive interventions to supply public goods activities. While no data and/or farming household like emergency services to the poorest farmers, irrigation profiles are readily available to assess differential impact and flood control infrastructure, extension and research of the drought by gender, due to their vulnerability, services, etc. female-headed small-scale farming households are believed to be the hardest hit by the drought. Disaster Risk Reduction and Contingency Financing: A system of private insurance, seeded and regulated Displacement and Migration: For those regions and by the government, against catastrophic events crops where there was a major production loss, such as affecting crop production would indeed benefit those mentioned above but also in many other cases, farmers. The government moreover needs to offer the the crop-related impact of the drought caused many country’s farmers reliable short-, medium- and long- farmers to flee their fields, mostly rain-fed but also term weather forecasts, using all the international irrigated ones. While it can be expected that farmers forecasting resources that are available. Such a system fleeing lack of irrigation due to temporary low or nil river is needed to complement the existing real-time flows will spontaneously return to their fields once river monitoring and analysis by FSNAU and FEWS of crop flows have returned to normal, many farmers under rain- production and prices. fed conditions may choose to seek new employment opportunities in the urban areas where they can also IV. Recovery Needs more easily receive both aid and remittances. No information is readily available, however, on the specific Recovery and Resilience Strategy and Interventions rain-fed crop-related impact of the drought on such for Crops Agriculture internal displacement and on prospects for their return The approach needed for drought recovery and in the near future. resilience is to leverage the historical strengths of the Environment & Natural Resources: Despite the many Somali people, its communities and institutions to challenges affecting crop farmers from deforestation, withstand and recover from recurring natural disaster, environmental degradation and climate change, it is while understanding and addressing what makes them generally believed that for the southcentral regions vulnerable. In the context of the expected higher the pre-drought level of crop production was so far frequency and severity of future droughts, resilience below (more than 50 percent) the pre-war levels that building requires a rapid and tangible start towards neither recovery to pre-drought levels nor resilience better irrigation, flood-control, on-farm and communal strengthening for the pre-drought level of production storage, farm-to-market access, agricultural inputs and are constrained by the environmental challenges and widespread adoption of CSA practices and drought natural resources limits that these regions face. In the and pest-resistant seeds. All this would also foster northern regions, moreover, where crop production diversification of farming households’ incomes into is actually higher today than before the civil war, the better quality and alternative crops (e.g., nutritious potential for enhanced water catchment is such that here dense vegetables). too neither recovery to pre-drought levels nor resilience The main components of a short-term and medium- strengthening for the pre-drought level of production term program contributing to the above dual objectives are constrained by the environmental challenges of recovery and resilience building should include (a) and natural resources limits that these regions face. rehabilitation of prewar flood control and irrigation Nonetheless, adoption of climate-smart agriculture infrastructures along the two major rivers in southcentral practices is required to ensure resilience to likely future Somalia and their expansion in both northwestern climate shocks. and northeastern regions; (b) more modern storage Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: The private techniques and facilities; (c) rehabilitation of prewar sector, at least its large-scale farmers, has already invested trunk and rural roads to improve transportation of inputs and is investing in profitable opportunities, witnessing to farms and of produce to markets; (d) institution and the remarkable expansion of sesame production and of human capacity building, and (e) improved access lemon production (including for exports) compared to to and adoption of productivity-enhancing and the pre-war years. Its role remains central in investing in resilient technologies (CSA practices). Many of these new ventures, both for increasing land under cultivation components should be pursued preferably in parallel, and yields for commodity production and for increasing rather than in sequence, as institution-building without Productive Sectors | 19 © UNSOM investments in infrastructure will not yield tangible agricultural practices, which are indeed both main gains, while initial and partial gains in production and areas of intervention listed in the NDP 2017-2019; (d) productivity from investments in infrastructure will revival/rehabilitation of pump fed irrigation systems will likely prove unsustainable without complementary contribute to the efficiency of pump usage/operation, institution and capacity building. In total, the short-term increase crop production/income and ultimately food recovery and resilience strengthening needs have been security of farming communities; (e) the rehabilitation estimated at USD 36.7 million, and USD 348.6 million of deschek systems/infrastructure will help farming in the medium- and long-term, for a total of USD 385.3 communities to use floodwater efficiently and reduce/ million. The following section describes in more detail mitigate the risks associated with this type of farming; (f) these recommended interventions in order of priority. support rehabilitation/construction of water harvesting infrastructure with knowledge/skills transfer programs Recovery and Resilience Proposed Interventions and a better regulatory/policy framework that would help both agropastoral and pastoral communities, ultimately Immediate recovery should be prioritized as follows: contributing to food security and famine prevention; and (a) supporting access by farmers to the right quantities (g) the rebuilding of a functioning, effective agriculture and quality of staple food crops, crucial to ensure that research and extension system is needed to promote they and their families don’t abandon their livelihood sustainable CSA farming methods. and become destitute; (b) provision of small quantities of high-quality seeds (e.g. 15-20 kg of seeds per In addition to the above top priority interventions, other hectare under cereal cultivation); (c) urgently improving recovery interventions which are also important to both infrastructure for irrigation, flood-control, and rain resilience strengthening and sustainable growth of the water catchment, as well as adopting climate-smart crops subsector have been identified and costed. 20 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 5: Summary Needs for Crops (In USD) Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Improving access to National X X X 95,500,029 quality agricultural inputs for vulnerable rural population and returnees Irrigation canal National X X X 150,040,098 rehabilitation Recovery/resilience National X X X 9,752,500 of banana plantations (small and large)4 Improving farm National X X X 50,000,013 management practices (incl. SMART, post-harvest handling, etc.) Institutional capacity National X X X 19,000,006 building for better governance Rebuilding agriculture National X X X 41,000,012 research and extension system Strengthening National X X X 20,000,006 informal and building formal seed system Water and watershed National X X X 115,000,000 management Total Agriculture - Irrigation and Rain-Fed Crop Production Needs 500,292,664 Assessment Considerations Seasonal crop production: The period 2013-2015, during which the southern regions of Somalia experienced normal rainfall conditions, was taken as the baseline. Production estimates available from FSNAU for the four main staple food crops before and during the recent 2016/2017 drought period were compared to derive directly their production losses (their areas under cultivation and baseline yields are reported only for information purposes). Conversely, for most other crops where direct production estimates by FSNAU are not available, areas under cultivation before and during the most recent drought period were estimated via satellite imagery. These areas were multiplied by average baseline yields (recent ‘normal’ seasonal yields) suggested by Somali experts. Production losses were then calculated as the difference in the associated total production estimates, and cross-checked with Somali experts’ rough percentage crop losses estimates. Justified by the fact that banana is the only crop whose trees were actually killed by the drought. The banana crop was the only one to experience  4 damage, while others experienced only losses. Productive Sectors | 21 Pre-disaster baseline prices: Includes staple food crop Agriculture – Livestock production and retail price figures from the regions from the 2013-2015 FSNAU data base. Due to non- availability of baseline farm gate prices, these have been I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions estimated as 98 percent of the FSNAU-reported retail Livestock is the major source of livelihood for Somalis. prices at the village level (closest to the producers). Over 60 percent of the populations in Somalia are Pre-drought farm gate prices for other crops have been dependent on livestock for their livelihoods. The estimated especially for this DINA via a quick survey sector provides food, employment and incomes and conducted by Ipsos. contributes 40 percent of the GDP and 80 percent of the foreign currency earnings, excluding cash remittances Crop failure: For areas in 2016/2017 highly affected from Somalis in the Diaspora, with its exports being by the drought, a total crop failure was assumed. For the Horn of Africa nation’s leading foreign exchange areas moderately affected, a 50 percent crop failure earner. The growth has been boosted by continued was assumed. Farm gate crop prices during the export-focused interventions, “good prices”, and baseline period derived from the village retail prices growing markets in the Middle East. Recent statistic surveyed by the FSNAU or especially surveyed for the on livestock export from FAO shows Somalia exported DINA, were subsequently used to calculate crop losses 4.9 million goats and sheep, 295,000 cattle and 72,000 in monetary terms. camels in 2016. The export of live animals, hides, skins and chilled carcasses account for over 70 percent of total Damages to agricultural assets: Two types of damages livestock and livestock products trade and generate the have also been estimated. One relates to the drought- foreign currencies for importation of food items and related damage to the irrigation and flood control thus contributes significantly to ensuring food security infrastructure, stemming from two causes: the trampling in Somalia. It also accounts for up to 80 percent of total by animals over river embankments and shallow canal exports in an average year. walls in their stampede to reach scarce water sources, and their silting and associated rising floor levels from barren Livestock is the source of livelihood for pastoralists, soil blown by the wind into river and canal beds. Care contributes to Government revenues, and provides was taken for this damage to be estimated conservatively employment to a wide range of professionals and and only as relates to the recent drought, with specific other service providers. The pastoral based livestock damage and monetary repair cost parameters described sub-sector secures direct job opportunities for over 55 in the relevant section above. percent of the total labor force, plus indirect employment for another large segment of the labor force along the Recovery needs for the short-term: Estimated as the various livestock value chains. Somalia has two main minimum cost of the interventions (including lost livelihood systems related to land-based agriculture: assets’ replacement) required by the public and private pastoralism and agro-pastoralism. Pastoralists, about sectors to return to pre-drought production levels. 26 percent of the total population, are mostly nomadic, Resilience strengthening in the medium and long term poor, and found throughout all rural areas of Somalia. were estimated as the minimum cost of the package of Agropastoralists, about 23 percent of the population, interventions required to mitigate (to no more than 30 depend on both settled crop production and livestock percent) the damages and losses from a future large- rearing (or only the former), are also mostly poor, and scale and two- to three-season long drought similar live mostly along or in between the two major rivers in to the one experienced in 2016/2017, as well as from southcentral Somalia, but also in a few other parts of the (alternating) floods. southern and north-western regions with underground water and high annual precipitation. 22 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment In the last three decades, the annual precipitation has become lower than the long-term average, and more erratic, variable, and unreliable, shortening the historical cycles of recurrent droughts and resulting in impaired livestock and especially crop production. The annual rainfall ranges are a low of 100 mm in the northern coastal and central regions where agriculture is dominated by livestock grazing on their vast rangelands, gums and resins production from wild trees, and only limited oasis crops cultivation. But rain-fed farming, mixed in with livestock rearing, is common in the inter-riverine areas between the Shebelle and the Juba rivers and in the north-western regions, where the annual rainfall ranges from 400 to 600mm. According to the FSNAU data, the livestock population in Somalia as of 2014 is estimated to be about 52 million animal heads, in which 36,561,961 of them are sheep and goats, 6,611,835 camels and 3,930,383 cattle. Table 6: Total Estimated Livestock Population Before Drought Region Total # of Camels Total # of Cattle Total # of Goats Total # of Sheep Total Livestock Population Estimate Awdal 396,890 65,696 2,332,466 1,088,945 3,883,997 Woqooyi 564,659 96,567 2,745,465 1,139,224 4,545,914 Galbeed Togdheer 496,815 5,018 1,952,918 582,689 3,037,441 Sool 236,260 0 1,541,657 1,267,790 3,045,707 Sanaag 233,942 0 2,842,832 2,044,901 5,121,676 Baru 86,649 0 1,496,383 745,638 2,328,669 Nugaal 377,872 0 1,959,593 1,217,801 3,555,266 Mudug 437,672 13,070 2,057,841 881,057 3,389,640 Galgaduud 461,495 33,978 2,031,000 850,953 3,377,426 Hiraan 638,935 347,044 1,995,619 680,917 3,662,516 Shabelle 156,138 185,540 1,099,778 521,759 1,963,214 Dhexe (Middle) Shabelle 286,770 535,447 981,022 464,193 2,267,433 Hoose (Lower) Bay 361,562 800,964 1,171,477 117,007 2,451,010 Bakool 617,905 369,601 1,459,008 408,830 2,855,344 Gedo 770,894 336,629 1,825,849 750,202 3,683,575 Juba Dhexe 165,335 520,175 478,247 393,329 1,557,086 (Middle Juba Hoose 322,042 620,654 732,224 492,673 2,167,593 (Lower) Total 6,611,835 3,930,383 28,703,379 13,647,910 52,893,507 Productive Sectors | 23 Table 7: Livestock Export (2012-2017) Somalia Livestock Export 2012-2017 Year Species Total Camel Cattle Sheep and Goats 2012 124,952 266,397 4,411,787 4,803,136 2013 94,760 279,229 4,238,078 4,612,067 2014 76,829 340,156 4,528,703 4,999,688 2015 72,420 294,992 4,946,602 5,314,014 2016 67,985 220,838 4,387,967 4,676,790 2017 1,752 30,443 1,014,732 1,046,927 Livestock marketing and trade also generate revenues for local administrations, through taxation of livestock destined for trade. The livestock exportation rate has increased in the last five years, as Somalia exported 4.7 million animal heads in 2011, 4.8 million in 2013, 5 million in 2014 and 5.3 million in 2015, injecting more than USD 360 million and USD 384 million in 2014 and 2015 respectively.5 Table 7 shows the estimated total number of animals exported from Somalia. Livestock export trade is constrained mainly due to the December 2016 Saudi ban on imports of livestock from Somalia due to a (misplaced) concern related to a communicable disease outbreak, the impact of the recent drought on animal health and physical status and disease out breaks including Trans-Boundary Animal Diseases (TAD). However, recently, Saudi Arabia is reported to have just allowed the resumption of import of a certain number of livestock from Somalia. Despite this, as indicated in Figure 2, Somalia’s total exports of approximately USD 400 million of export revenue losses livestock in 2017, as of August, stands only at 1 million in 2017, bringing the total cumulative monetary loss heads. The large proportion of the annual livestock from the drought to over USD 2.6 billion. The informal export takes place before the Haj event, which occurred cross- border livestock trade has grown significantly in in August in 2017. Therefore, even if there will be large the pastoral areas of the Horn of Africa. It continues to scale exports in the remaining months, which are most provide local and regional food security, meat supplies to unlikely, the total export amount and the corresponding large urban centers, and contributes to poverty alleviation value will remain significantly lower than that of 2016. amongst pastoral communities.6 The cross-border trade Livestock exports to KSA and Gulf countries through the has been reported to be the largest income earner for bordering countries such as Djibouti cannot be ruled herders, traders, brokers, transporters and butchers. out. However, this is not documented. Even though the cross-border trade is unorganized, it is linked to the formal trade which is export-oriented. It is The value of livestock exports was USD 533 million for noted that the cross-border trade on the Kenya/Somalia the whole of 2015, according to the U.N. Comtrade border, though largely informal, is highly successful.7 statistics (partner countries reporting). The volume Due to its informal nature, there is no official screening shortfall recorded so far for the year 2017, implies and documentation, and therefore the volumes have 5  ederal Government of Somalia. 2016. National Development Plan (2017-2019). F 6 Little, P.D. 2009. Hidden Value on the Hoof: Cross-border trade in East Africa. Policy Brief No. 2.  7 Ibid. 24 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment not been determined. A study commissioned by FAO in natural resource and environment management, and 2012 found that provision of adequate water for trekked develop agro pastoral practices that are necessary in animals, and feed access along the livestock trade routes promoting such trade. are some of the measures that could promote cross border livestock trade. It was noted that the cost of water II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact escalates during the dry seasons and animals have to be trekked over long distances in search of water points Drought Effects which are distributed haphazardly making it difficult Despite the vital role of livestock trade to the economy for trekked animals to access water in the dry season. in generating incomes and contributing to food security; The same case applies for pastures which are overused periodic droughts affect the economies of the Somali and further degraded during the dry season. The study regions badly. Insufficient rain and water availability recommends the Ministries of Livestock, Agriculture, towards the end of 2016 severely reduced water and environment and natural resources and other players to pasture availability for livestock. This in turn caused work closely together to provide the necessary physical infrastructure, improve water resource management, 8 World Bank and Ipsos. 2017. Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA).  Productive Sectors | 25 fodder and water prices to rise beyond the means of farmers and pastoralists who, in parallel, lost their income and suddenly became dependent on market purchases of food for their survival. With each passing season, the losses intensified and compounded. Hydrological drought results from the failure of one or more consecutive rain seasons and its effects on the livestock sector are mainly manifested in the form of lack of or insufficient water and pasture to maintain the production and productivity of animals. Due to the recent droughts, water and pasture availability have significantly deteriorated and led to severe morbidity, lower resistance of livestock to common diseases and death of huge number of animals, to the extent that 60 percent livestock were lost in severely affected areas, implying a significant effect on the livestock dependent economy and livelihoods of the people. Livestock export trade is constrained mainly due to the December 2016 Saudi ban on imports of livestock from Somalia. Other factors affecting the livestock production and trade include: political instability, conflict, civilian displacement, and floods. Damages and Losses The consecutive failure of the Gu and Deyr rain fall seasons have resulted in huge damages and losses on the livestock sector. For this year, though limited, the Gu rains somewhat replenished animal water sources and regenerated pasture, which does not require much time or water to grow but is very limited in nature and provides little relief to pastoralists. Damage in the sector refers to the death of animals due to lack of water, pasture and disease prevalence, while loss refers to the effect of drought on the production and productivity of livestock. It is estimated that during the drought, Somalia lost over 6.4 million of its total livestock population valued at over USD 350 million in addition to losses in productivity in terms of milk yield and body weight valued at about USD 1.2 billion. 51 percent of the Somali population lives below the poverty line of USD 1.9 per day.9 Livestock losses have © UNDP Somalia been very high among poor families, averaging 40-60 World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey.  9 26 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 8: Summary Table of Damage and Losses for Sector (in local currency and USD) Region Total Total Livestock Loss Value (USD) Total Livestock Percentage Livestock Damage and from Total Damage Milk Live Weight Total Loss Value Damage (Death) Value Loss (USD) and Loss (USD) Awdal 10,046,200 20,703,083 28,252,725 48,955,808 59,002,008 4 Woqooyi 15,047,638 22,668,412 46,012,239 68,680,651 83,728,289 5 Galbeed Togdheer 30,299,037 61,044,301 60,664,688 121,708,989 152,008,026 9 Sool 41,962,040 31,895,036 43,597,824 75,492,859 117,454,899 7 Sanaag 36,505,812 35,332,428 71,515,974 106,848,401 143,354,213 9 Bari 22,065,447 13,873,480 42,920,638 56,794,118 78,859,565 5 Nugaal 40,413,776 47,288,549 79,912,256 127,097,911 167,614,581 10 Mudug 34,054,457 53,376,114 67,721,797 121,097,911 155,152,369 10 Galgaduud 31,404,304 58,759,910 62,752,610 121,512,519 152,916,823 9 Hiraan 17,032,203 33,064,790 47,925,879 80,990,669 98,022,872 6 Shabelle Dhexe 4,383,049 4,917,367 20,668,690 25,286,056 29,969,105 2 (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 8,743,316 10,370,331 33,237,647 43,607,978 52,351,293 3 (Lower) Bay 13,362,385 17,902,330 29,355,211 47,257,541 60,619,926 4 Bakool 13,987,630 22,278,858 35,903,408 58,182,266 72,169,896 4 Gedo 20,908,982 38,173,336 56,076,025 94,249,360 115,158,342 7 Juba Dhexe 4,076,406 5,799,757 15,829,656 21,629,413 25,705,819 2 (Middle) Juba Hoose 6,395,010 17,481,507 25,040,185 42,521,693 48,916,703 3 (Lower) Total 350,687,691 494,929,586 767,387,452 1,262,317,038 1,613,004,729 100 Productive Sectors | 27 percent in the north and 20-40 percent in the center the decline of national herd size, sharp decline to animal and south. The livestock damage and loss for Somalia prices due to the demand/supply principle and thus poor was estimated based on the FSNAU matrix indicated livelihood for livestock holders. In addition to this, sharp below in Table 8. decline of livestock production (milk, body weight etc.), increase of animal disease occurrences, low conception As indicated in Figure 3, the effect of the drought on rate and high abortion rate, and inadequate feed and sheep and goats has been worse in the northern part of water availability are among the expected scenarios if the country due to the severity of the drought in these clear measures are not taken. parts but less so in the south due to riverine regions which provided sufficient water and fodder for livestock. Major Challenges for the Sector The low level of impact on cattle in the north is due to low cattle population in the region so in terms of According to the National Development Plan, the major numbers affected, it is less. Camel density in the south- challenges for the sector include the continuous natural eastern part of the country is less, hence the low value in and climatic shocks that livestock holders face (droughts, terms of total impact. floods, range degradation and low rainfall) and livestock diseases including trans-boundary threats which makes the drought impact more severe and broad. Drought Impact Absence of fodder reserves and alternatives for fodder/ The economic impact of the drought is estimated to feed during dry and lean seasons and dependency be over USD 1.6 billion in total damages and losses to on only rain-fed farming leads to a large number of the sector, impacting on livelihoods, food and nutrition animal losses annually which reaches its peak during security, and livestock-related businesses. the drought and famine periods. Along with the normal Medium to Long-Term Projections on the Sector and low productivity of Somali livestock breeds and loss of Impact on Development Goals large quantities of animal products due to lack of proper storage, processing and cold facilities, the drought Somalia has launched its first National Development caused huge losses to milk production and reduction of Plan after the central government collapse in 1991 which livestock body weight. prioritized the country’s recovery and developmental goals for a period of three years (2017-19). Due to the The absence of allocated budget by the government to drought, most of the projections and targets of 2017 the sector, low investment from the private sector and weren’t achieved, including the funds allocated for limited budget support from donors to the livestock different activities. The absence of urgently-needed development programs, hinders the establishment interventions may lead to the delay in planned and of drought mitigating initiatives and developmental expected achievements for the rest of the year as well as programs. Weak government institutional capacity for those in 2018. The continuation of the drought without and lack of central coordination between all the sector a clear response will also negatively affect the sector working organizations led to overlapping activities, lack contribution to the country’s economy, employment and of rapid response to shocks as well as poor inter-agency livelihood support. cooperation. Potential Scenarios if Policy and Programming III. Cross-cutting Considerations Measures are not taken Gender: Both male and female dependent households As the drought had massive economic, livelihood and owning relatively small herd size, mainly of small human impact, rapid interventions, and policy and ruminants, are also considered vulnerable to natural programming measures are necessary to be taken. disasters. Women in Somalia are heavily involved in Failure of this rapid response to the drought will cause subsistence farming which entails milking the animals, the death and damage of more livestock numbers, processing the milk, feeding the family, and taking care reduction of the product value, deterioration of more of livestock. There are women involved in smallscale households’ livelihoods, and high susceptibility to the enterprises, selling milk, meat, hides and skin in the expected future droughts and climate shocks. During urban areas. According to a study on the Somaliland the drought, high number of livestock owners sell their meat value chain, women are reported to play a very animals to the market for slaughtering, this along with significant role in the livestock and meat marketing high losses of livestock due to the drought will lead to chains in Somaliland.10 About 70 percent of slaughter 10 FAO. 2011. Towards A Competitive Somaliland Livestock and Meat Industry: Analysis of Somaliland Livestock and Meat Value Chains.  28 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment activities and the marketing of livestock products and Promoting safety nets for a minimum of social protection by- products, milk, ghee and dry meat, were undertaken through different programs, tailored to women and by women. In cases where women lack ownership and men’s household needs, can secure their basic needs access to various productive assets, they are involved in on a daily basis and ensure their survival in the event of micro and small enterprises to supplement their family a shock. For example, supporting women smallholder food and income sources. groups through the organization and establishment of cooperatives and promoting dissemination of Women lack ownership and have limited access to gender sensitive information on available services. productive assets. They are therefore affected most by The safety nets should provide a foundation to the drought conditions. The other effect of drought is embrace sustainable productive activities, access basic temporary loss of business opportunities for women social services, and facilitate longer-term livelihood who depend on marketing of livestock and livestock recovery and development. The focus areas include: products. Drought affects production and income from good health, adequate nutrition and education, safety backyard enterprises such as poultry production. In and adequate skills. times of drought, the cash flow is affected as business funds are diverted to buy critical food supplies which Displacement and Migration: During drought, there leave such businesses to crumble. is abnormal massive movement of people with their livestock in search of grazing land and water. These Targeting men, women and youth with appropriate movements are internal and cross-border. Whereas interventions can close the gender disparity gap. This can generally some of the movements are temporary, the be achieved through promoting women in management frequency and intensity of drought has led to actual of community assets, promoting joint ownership or migrations. For instance, during the last drought sharing of replaced productive assets and livestock period in 2011, huge numbers of people moved across between spouses, training women, and designing borders in the region and beyond in search of safety, gender responsive credit schemes and financial services food, pasture, water and livelihood opportunities. to increase their work and employment opportunities in Migration through perilous routes exposes the already agriculture sector. This is in addition to supporting them vulnerable population to numerous risks. There is need with productive assets such as home-based business to consider policy and investment options in addressing equipment and production tools as well as backyard these issues, taking into account the delicate balance economy assets to get them on recovery path. of maintaining pastoralists’ mobility and lifestyle vis-à- vis environmental conservation, population growth and Conflict-development Nexus: During drought communi- state security. Other ways of addressing the migration ties or households located in inaccessible areas are likely challenge is establishing/improving a monitoring system miss out on emergency supplies of water and fodder for of seasonal forecasts of potential drought conditions, livestock. These in most cases foment displacement to spatial monitoring of pasture availability, and promotion urban areas or cross border areas in search for services. of commercial livestock off take to allow early reduction This could result in further conflicts with the host com- of herd sizes. munities. In the past, FAO experienced challenges in ac- cessing livestock in some regions of Somalia for vaccina- There is also an increasing number of internally tion, due to insecurity concerns. The livestock had to be Displaced persons (IDPs) within Somalia including a high moved to bordering safe regions to access the vaccine. proportion of women (SNDP) who have settled in the urban and peri-urban areas. Women and children are Social Protection & Safety Nets: Men, women and reported to comprise 70-80 percent of all refugees and children are affected by drought differently. Migration IDPs. These are mainly pastoralist dropouts who relocate of men and livestock during the drought period may in these areas expecting to receive humanitarian aid lead to family splits which could have a long-term after losing all their livestock to drought. It has been effect on the family unit. Loss of remaining livestock observed that IDPs supported with productive animals due to drought could force women and children left are able to rebuild back their assets and resume behind to migrate to urban areas to access food and livestock production post drought. Other triggers of basic needs. There are limited livelihood diversification urban migration are insecurity in some parts of Somalia opportunities among livestock dependent households and migration in search of employment. who are mainly pastoralist. Productive Sectors | 29 Environment & Natural Resources: The increasing For sustainability, the private sector can be supported frequency and intensity of drought has put more pressure to provide animal health services (targeted on already degraded pastures leading to reduction in disease surveillance vaccination and treatment) for grazing resources. Pre-war traditional forms of natural priority diseases and commercialized fodder production resource management and control systems using among others. paddocking and rotational grazing was abandoned due to the collapse of the government’s ability to enforce Disaster Risk Reduction, Drought Resilience and appropriate rangeland management practices. Over the Contingency Financing: Where the impacts of drought years feed for livestock has reduced due to a shift in land can be reduced with the construction of water or market use attributed to expansion of land for cultivation and infrastructure, and DMA plans with other sections of increased charcoal production. During drought, there government, donors need to prioritize those investments is increased use of private enclosures for grass, which on the basis of their dual value – economic growth and interferes with grazing routes. Most of the harvested risk reduction. The construction of priority infrastructure surface rainwater is also depleting rapidly. Although is shared with the private sector, infrastructure & some improved dams exist whose bottoms and sides agriculture, and livestock (productive sector). are cemented and covered to ensure that water is not In communities chronically affected by drought and lost to evaporation and seepage this is not sufficient. where key early warning indicators are known, DMA These permanent sources provide water for the majority should establish centers to serve FMS, private sector and of town supplies and act as buffers to drought. The individuals to monitor and provide alerts for changing increased demand for water for livestock during drought conditions as well as to support early action to be increases unplanned private water development taken to minimize loss and hardship. Also, local disaster (especially for berkeds, wells). These water sources have response mechanisms should be established to work exerted pressure on surrounding rangelands as they together with government, private and local interests to collect in large numbers for watering causing further ensure the safety of the local population from disaster. environmental degradation. Drought preparedness plans should guide communities Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: The revival on: specific actions to take before, during and after a of Somalia’s economic sectors largely depends on the drought; communication channels on drought conditions strengths of the Somalia’s entrepreneurial private sector. across communities and with monitoring agencies; and The private sector is pivotal to the growth of livestock modalities to implement systems for monitoring drought trade, which remains the backbone of the economy. The impacts. Preparedness planning will have specific private sector supports with the provision of essential benefits for communities, including improved water services and infrastructure development. The veterinary management and food storage, increased drought clinical services are exclusively in the hands of the awareness and reduced future livelihood losses due to private sector, the livestock professional associations. In protection of feed and animals from drought impacts. Somaliland and Puntland, the Government and business There is the need to explore Sharia-compliant Islamic community negotiated an agreement with a Saudi insurance schemes for the livestock sector in the near Arabian Company (SEIVQMC) to establish quarantine future to de-risk investment in the sector. stations to facilitate the livestock export to major export markets in Saudi Arabia. The export slaughterhouses are owned by the private sector. IV. Recovery Needs During drought, the livestock emergency response Recovery Strategy for the Sector activities were mainly implemented by FAO through To ensure durable and applicable recovery strategy for the private voluntary organization such as the the livestock sector, it should ensure proper post-drought regional livestock professional associations, NGOs, interventions, enhancing livestock production, feed and and government parastatals, with supervision of the water availability for the livestock and livestock holders government. With the Government working closely with and better financing and investing opportunities for the livestock professional associations, about 12 million the sector interventions and initiatives. Most vulnerable livestock were treated for drought related diseases/ groups such as women, the aged, female dependent infections in entire Somalia. Strengthening the enabling households, and populations in remote and dry areas environment for livestock private sector development is should be given priority. critical. It entails reducing the cost of trade, improving access to finance and inputs, and catalyzing private sector investment into high priority sectors.11 11 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. National Development Plan (2017-2019).  30 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The loss and damage of animals during drought production and supporting village based poultry feed season was mainly due to lack of sufficient feed and production utilizing local resource feed base; training water available for them which led to deaths of large and supporting women and youth groups with poultry number of animals and reduction of productivity (milk production inputs; technical support in production and production, body weight, fertility etc.) of the surviving marketing; (d) Bee keeping; (e) Genetic research and ones. Thus, the country, to recover from the impact of breeding with the focus on selective breeding within the drought and high losses and damage in the sector, the existing stock to take advantage of its time-tested needs a resilient strategy on feed and water availability capacity for adaptation, resistance, and rebound to harsh to livestock, supporting the livestock households climate, severe droughts, poor feed quality, and endemic especially the vulnerable groups, improving the diseases; and (f) Strengthened regulatory capacity of the veterinary health services, ensuring enough financing Veterinary Services to supervise and regulate quarantine and investing on drought mitigation initiatives, and operations and certification for trade. encouraging all the stakeholders, particularly the private sector, to participate. Needs and Interventions for Recovery in the Short Term (next 12 months): The main livelihood objective during Interventions for resilience in the medium term (2-3 years): the recovery phase is to rebuild livestock assets. This (a) Rehabilitation of livestock watering infrastructure on will be achieved mainly through: (a) Veterinary services the rangelands and provision of dedicated watering provision; (b) Feed and water provision; and (c) Livestock facilities along the banks of the country’s two main wet redistribution. Annex 2 indicates in more detail the rivers and its many dry rivers; (b) Planting autochthonous above outlined recovery interventions required for the trees and introducing more nutritious and drought livestock sector. resistant grass-bushes; (c) Ensuring better animal health service by training community-based animal health Recommendations for DRR and Building Resilience service providers, and establishment of, and technical in Sector support for, community based agrovet operators; (d) Improving laboratory facilities for disease diagnosis, To ensure enough feed is available for livestock, private antimicrobial testing, confirmatory disease diagnosis investment in commercial fodder production should and animal food residue testing to ensure food safety; be supported and expanded as well as strengthening (e) Stronger governance related to access to, and use capacities to deliver extension services to farmers of, available rangeland and water; (f) Support improved and supporting fodder seed bulking. Improving the breeding management practices to avoid inbreeding processing, storage, and transport of fodder to minimize and promote use of local superior genetic pools; (g) wastage and quality losses and to ensure year-round Enhance governance of livestock value chain actors; (h) availability should be also emphasized. Identify Public Private Partnership (PPP) opportunities The key elements in the drought resilience strategy with existing and newly established infrastructure should be to develop capacity for public and private facilities (fodder sheds, honey houses and poultry input veterinary service providers, disease surveillance, storage facilities); (i) Support the creation of pastoralists diagnosis facilities and laboratories, and establishing and agropastoralists producer organizations as well as early warning systems, emergency preparedness and market linkages between producer organizations and immediate response. input and output markets for livestock and livestock products; (j) Facilitate the creation of linkages between Rebuilding herds of poor agropastoralists’ to pre- producer organizations (POs) and business development drought baseline levels and providing them with the service provider. right livestock composition, which ought to include not only more drought-tolerant animals like goats but also Interventions for resilience in the long term (4+ years): (a) larger animals such as camels, that are usually never Strengthen capacity for clinical veterinary services – risk included because of their high cost. This will be done based surveillance for Transboundary Animal Diseases through the long-term interventions on genetic research (TADs); community based early warning systems; and breeding. Gradual shift in herd composition towards community based animal health delivery network; quality more drought-tolerant animals and less thirsty and assurance of veterinary drugs; and vaccination against drought-sensitive animals will also be promoted. prioritized diseases; (b) Feed and water development and supporting large scale fodder productions and To mitigate water stress, harvesting rainwater in establishment of strategic “fodder banks”; (c) Poultry underground ditches and berkads should be adopted. Productive Sectors | 31 Table 9: Summary Needs for Livestock Summary of Drought Recovery Needs12 Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Vaccination against National X X X 66,500,000 prioritized diseases (PPR/CCPP/SGP); Supportive Treatment National X X X 13,860,000 (on need basis) Strengthening National X X X 1,134,000 community based animal health service delivery (CAHWs training and kits supply) and linking them with the private sector Establishing mobile clinics National X X X 500,000 Rehabilitate National X X X 250,000 laboratory facilities Strengthening the public National X X X 2,500,000 veterinary service and SPS Feed Supply (Range Cube National X X X 1,000,000 and Mineral Blocks) and feed stores Construction/ Rehabilitation Fodder production National X X X 3,000,000 and Management Redistribution (1 percent National X X X 6,000,000 of the total damage for Sheep and Goats (167,317) among very poor and poor households) with focus in South Central regions) Rehabilitation of livestock National X X X 4,000,000 water infrastructures Rangeland National X X X 5,000,000 Management Capacity National X X X 2,000,000 Development Poultry Production National X X X 1,250,000 Bee keeping National X X X 1,000,000 Genetic research National X X X 2,500,000 and breeding Total Agriculture – Livestock Needs 110,494,000 12  iven the ongoing nature of the drought, the cost and extent of recovery needs interventions will be updated as part of the subsequent Recovery G and Resilience Framework (RRF) process. 32 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Assessment Considerations Agriculture – Fisheries In the absence of government livestock population census data, the study relied on FSNAU household I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions data for the analysis and validated by the Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range personnel on the livestock Somalia’s marine fishery dominates the fishery sector. sector team. Below are the approaches used in arriving Coastal communities are heavily dependent on fishing, at the estimated damages and losses; carried out mostly by men. Women dominate fish processing, trading, and support activities and some Damages: Refers to livestock deaths and is calculated women are multiple boat owners, although there are as per the percent estimate for each of the losses in no specific numbers available to quantify the division of the regions, based on the severity of the drought. The labor in the sector between men and women. Fishing value is calculated based on the number of animals is however a seasonal activity for many rural dwellers, that died, multiplied by the average price during the including pastoralists, and often an important source baseline period of 2013-15. Average prices are based on of supplementary food and cash income. On much of farm gate prices, which were estimated to be 35 percent Somali’s Indian Ocean coastline, fishing ceases entirely less than the prices from major markets where FSNAU during the months of the strongest southwest monsoon market surveys are conducted on regular bases. season (June-September) and many communities return to a pastoral existence. Losses: Refers to the loss of milk and live weight of animals (mainly camels, cattle, sheep and goat) calculated Fish consumption in Somalia is one of the lowest in based on the FSNAU damage and loss estimates Africa, at about 3.1 kg per capita (2009 data – no more for each region. recent data exists).13 Most Somalis are still rooted in their pastoralist tradition and have a strong preference for Milk loss: Given that milk prices during the peak of the meat. Coastal populations have always eaten fresh fish, drought season was not known to compare the prices of but traditional resistance to its consumption remains milk during the baseline period (2013-15) to estimate the due to poor handling, lack of ice and basic storage and losses, the analysis used the estimated percentage losses processing facilities. of milk due to drought to calculate milk volumes lost, and further computed the monetary value of the losses. The Somali fisheries sector is general poorly documented In each region, the milk yield under normal condition in terms of reliable data. This is a recurrent issue across is multiplied by the percent loss. Key assumptions for the sector that hampers the work of development calculating milk yield by species: planners and analysts. This lack of data is compounded in the inland fishery by security problems in much of Camel: Lactation period= 12 months (365 days); • the relevant regions (in the Juba and Shabelle River Production = conservatively used average of 6 basins), which prevent or severely restrict access. As a liters per day result, there is no accurate assessment of the number of • Cattle: Lactation period= 8 months (240 days); fishers. A report by FAO/Smartfish confirms that there is Average production of 1.8 liters per day little scientific evidence available on the status of marine fishery resources due to the lack of data and research Sheep and Goats: Lactation period – 60 days; • capacities.14 No information is available on the status of Average production of 0.7 liter per day the inland fish stocks. All the above estimates are for normal years, and are multiplied by the respective percent loss estimate There is no history of aquaculture but there is a small for each region to estimate the total loss for the inland fishery sector mostly based on two riverine drought period. systems - the Shabelle River (flowing through Hiraan, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle) and the Juba River Live weight: Similarly, the region-specific percentage (flowing through Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo). losses were used to calculate the value of live weight of According to FAO FishStat data, total inland production emaciated animals and compared with the normal year has stagnated at 200 MT per year over the last decade. situation in terms of weight. 13 W  orld Bank and FAO. 2017. Somalia: Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture (draft). 14 Breuil, Christophe and Damien Grima. 2014. Baseline Report Somalia. SmartFish Programme of the Indian Ocean Commission, Fisheries  Management FAO component. Productive Sectors | 33 The lower reaches of southern Somalia’s two permanent Because these fisheries are highly seasonal, they tend to rivers have been fished by share cropping communities form part of a risk-spreading strategy, as one of several for generations and locally fish is highly valued as a good activities that households engage in.16 Fishing can source of food, particularly so in watersheds where tsetse provide a fall-back source of food and income in years fly (Glossina sp.) mean little or no livestock is available for when local rainfall events lead to crop failure. Fisheries consumption.15 This attitude does not extend beyond represent one of the most important benefits to society these communities, however, and fishing activity and that aquatic systems provide, often sustaining the fish consumption further upstream is less established. livelihoods of poor rural communities. Furthermore, the FAO site visits around Jowhar in 2016 confirmed that riverine fisheries activity is exclusively traditional, highly existing fishing skill and equipment are rudimentary, with seasonal and restricted to drier months of the year, with considerable room for technical improvement and, if well the supply of fish largely available during drier periods managed, also for expansion dependent on the state of from December to May. The FGS has assumed a similar the fish stocks. Current fishing methods, predominantly pattern of activity for the riverine fisheries in Somalia. using traps and hand-lines in the southern reaches of the river, are being supplemented by the provision of rowing boats. Table 10: Baseline Data for Income From Fishing Income From Fishing River Region Number 50% of Catch of Fish catch Price of fish (Daily) Pre-drought of HH number of fish per SOLD per (USD/kg) Value of baseline value HH heavily day per day per - based on the income of fisheries to involved in HH (kgs) HH (kgs) FAQ data from fish all riverine HH, fishing for income October component in that region purposes 2017 of HH (per day) livelihood Shablle Hiraan 86,780.8 4,467.9 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 6,816.0 River M Shabelle 86,006.0 6,927.2 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 10,567.7 L Shabelle 200,369.8 17,373.4 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 26,503.8 Juba Lower Juba 266,993.2 19,509.9 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.4 27,040.7 River Middle 155,851.7 14,611.3 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.4 20,251.3 Juba Gedo 194,821.2 15,676.9 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.4 21,728.2 Totals 990,822.7 78,566.6 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 112,907.6 15  orld Bank and FAO. 2017. Somalia: Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture (draft). W 16 Alemu Lema Abelti, Assefa Mitike Janko and Tilahun Geneti Abdi, 2014. Fishery production system assessment in different water bodies of  Guji and Borana zones of Oromia, Ethiopia. International Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Studies 2014. 34 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact Economic: loss of income (to the individual/HH • and upstream in terms of expenditure in the local Drought Effects economy) This is considered to be negligible for the marine Physical environment: collapse of riverbanks and/ • fishery (in terms of direct effect), other than the indirect or change in river courses as rivers dry up and/or consequences of the drought as documented in the siltation with renewed flooding (post drought). section on ‘Drought Impact’. For the inland fishery, the The inland fishery is artisanal in nature and as such is effect of the drought in the six regions of relevance can considered to have very limited, if any, sector specific be summarized in the following broad categories: public or private physical assets (in terms of fish landing • Ecological: disruption to the spawning migrations sites, markets, ice making facilities and cold storage). and spawning grounds of key fish species – in The major impact, although still considered minimal, extreme cases the drying up of river beds will result is on the physical assets of private individuals if fishing in spawning stock mortalities. gear (specifically boats) is abandoned. The fishing gear is simple technology so there is no impact from non-use Fishing: when water levels are low then fishing may •  if stored properly. The effect of the drought is that fish no longer be possible (access to the water, water production (catches) will diminish or cease altogether. too shallow, destruction of fish habitat etc.). The inland fishery has limited access to, and need for, Physical assets: boats may be stranded and in • goods and services (such as for example the supply of extreme cases boats and/or fishing gear may be fuel and ice) as the fishery is artisanal in nature. sold if the owner has no other income. Damages and Losses Table 11: Damage and Losses for Sector (in local currency and USD) Damages and Losses Public Private Total Damages and Losses USD Shilling USD Shilling USD Shilling Itemized List of Damages Fishing gear damage - 0 0 0 0 0 0 assumed negligible Itemized List of Losses Loss of income 0 0 4,953,405 4,953,405 Loss of assets 1,238,351 1,238,351 Loss of access to fishing ground 1,238,351 1,238,351 Loss of food security 2,535,455 2,535,455 Total 0 0 9,965,562 9,965,562 Productive Sectors | 35 Damages Loss of and/or restricted access to fishing 3.  grounds if river beds silt up and water/river-flow The damages as a result of the drought will be limited does not return as per pre-drought - this is as the inland fishery is a low technology artisanal fishery difficult to quantify but a proxy of 25 percent with few assets (public or private) in use – and those that of direct loss of income has been used, are in use are generally not valuable, except perhaps the equivalent to USD 1.24 million; rowing boats.17 The direct damages to fishing gear are Loss of food security – although a cross-cutting 4.  assumed to equate to zero in the inland fishery (noting sector, this has been quantified for the inland that – given the lack of aquaculture - it is assumed there fisheries sector as USD 2.54 million using a proxy are no fishing ponds in use within the affected regions). amount equivalent to the current market price of Losses fish (USD 1.50 / Kg) The estimates received from government provided The losses from the drought will result from: a total of only 1,728 fishers, whereas data from the 1. T  he loss of income as a direct result of the drought surveys completed in the districts of Jowhar and (reduced landings) – this has been quantified as a Balcad18 suggest that there are many part time maximum of USD 4.95 million; seasonal fishers, with an average of 70 percent of HHs interviewed suggesting that they fish five or more Loss of assets if they are forced to sell their fishing 2.  days per week. In order to assess the real impact gear (lines, nets and/or boat) – this has been of the drought on HH in the riverine regions, a quantified as approximately USD 1.24 million if it comprehensive baseline needs to be established and is assumed that 25 percent of those fishers who agreed with the FGS and FMS. earn an income (part-time/seasonal/full-time) from fishing have lost their assets; Table 12: Freshwater Fish Market Prices – Mogadishu Market 15/10/17 Freshwater Fish Name Price/Kg in USD SO/SH. Malay Madwoe (Black Fish 0.50 10 Malay Adde (Milk Fish) 0.50 10 Hangoongo 0.70 16 Balil Addey (Local Name) 0.80 18 Shariifato/Afdhuub 0.50 10 (Long Mouth Fish) Haraaye (Local Name) 0.80 18 Beeli Dabagaduud (Red Tailed Fish) 0.70 16 Musiiyo (Local Name) 0.60 14 Shariibo (Local Name) 0.70 16 The FAO built and distributed 11 fishing and transportation rowing boats to communities on the Shabelle River in October 2016 at a  17 cost of USD 3,800 per boat (including basic safety equipment). 18 CEFA. 2016. FAO Fish Project Final Report October 2016.  36 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia 37 Drought Impact mortality and/or change the nature of the water-basin, then fishers will eventually return. The consequences The potential effects of the drought on marine fisheries are therefore of a temporary/seasonal nature, although were as follows; (a) Influx of people into the coastal these consequences may extend for some time beyond communities, as they lost livestock; (b) Competition the immediate cessation of the drought dependent on with the local community for space and other resources, the resilience of fish stocks to recover, spawning cycles/ and potential use of environmentally damaging fishing season and changes in the physical environment. Policy gear; (c) Influx of people into coastal areas provides a and programming measures in this case may therefore new (expanding) market for fish; (d) Diversification of need to include physical works remedial measures livelihoods by some coastal HHs through combining such as dredging of rivers and streams and repairs to fishing and livestock or crops. river banks. The potential effects of the drought on inland fisheries Major Challenges for the Sector were as follows: (a) Siltation of the rivers reducing river bed levels; (b) Dependents on seasonal fishing become As a result of the drought, the challenges for the sector increasingly food insecure as a result of drought; (c) are very consistent with those highlighted in the NDP Regular riverine shallows that provide a sanctuary as which are as outlined: (a) Inadequate landing facilities; nursery grounds are lost; (d) Disposal of fishing assets; (b) Post-harvest losses are unacceptably high, with a (e) Changes in ecology and physical nature of the river negative consumer perception of fish quality due to the flow may affect fish populations. poor handling and short shelf life; (c) Lack of enforcement capacity; and (d) Lack of technical experience among Medium to Long Term Projections on the Sector and youth to actively participate and increase employment Impact on Development Goals in the private sector. The drought might have affected the achievement of development goals outlined in the NDP. The NDP, III. Cross-cutting Considerations 2016 refers to the following development goals for the fisheries sector: Gender: The FAO fisheries survey completed in the districts of Jowhar and Balcad19 gives some indication Living aquatic resources should be harvested 1.  of gender roles. The two surveys (completed in different within their sustainable limits. months) confirmed that women play a significant role in 2.  The supply of fishery products will keep pace with inland fishery (either fishing and/or trading fish) and as demands to safeguard the nutritional standards, such have been severely impacted upon in terms of their and the social and economic well-being of livelihoods and food security. However, in the absence of communities depending on fisheries for their accurate data on gender and age disaggregated roles livelihood, in the sector, the main consideration is to put in place mechanisms to collect relevant information, alongside Effective and adequate support is provided to 3.  general fish catch data in the near future. help private sector development and expansion in fisheries, and Social Protection & Safety Nets: Inland fishery is a 4.  Critical habitats used for fisheries and aquaculture seasonal and part-time livelihood. As fishing is one of are safeguarded. several activities that households engage in there is likely to be moderate to significant impact dependent Two scenarios are possible regarding the medium-long on the importance of fishing to HH income generation term impact of the drought on inland fisheries, mainly; and food security. There is no known data available (a) If the drought continues then rivers and tributaries on building inland fisheries HH and community resilience will dry up, the physical environment will change, fishers to drought. will sell or abandon their fishing gear and will ultimately migrate away - policy and programming measures will Environment & Natural Resources: One of the need to address the economic and social consequences potential consequences of periodic (particularly of more IDPs and long-term displacement of flash) flooding after a drought is that it can cause any communities; (b) Conversely, if the rains return and if the remaining fish populations (contained within small drought has not been so severe as to cause broodstock ponds) to scatterscatter, lowering their vulnerability 19 World Bank and FAO. 2017. Somalia: Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture (draft).  38 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment their vulnerability to fishing gear. Catch Per Unit Effort property capture fishery (particularly to the extent this (CPUE) therefore declines, impacting on fisheries is an artisanal fishery). Such crosscutting issues are related livelihoods. only applicable if there were managed small-scale aquaculture (pond culture fisheries), which is currently The WB/FAO report makes reference to experiences not the case in Somalia. from interventions in Dollow, Gedo region, where the FAO supported with some success the formation of fishing cooperatives, resulting in by-catches of freshwater IV. Recovery Needs turtle and crocodile in gill-nets used there.20 The impact Recovery Strategy for the Sector of droughts on the loss of such valuable flora and fauna is unknown but in terms of the longer-term impact on The four clear strategies as outlined in the NDP and the ecosystem this could be significant. Droughts may milestones to support development of and resilience negatively affect fish breeding and fishing grounds, within the fisheries sector focus primarily on the marine but may also impact on coastal communities through capture sub-sector: the drying up of low-lying coastal areas and salt-water Maximize full potential of small-scale fisheries 1.  ingress into brackish water estuaries. 2. Strengthen institutional partnership Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: The inland 3. Minimize post-harvest losses in small-scale fisheries fishery is exploited exclusively by the private sector at an artisanal level – the impact on the private sector 4. Commercial fisheries development (and its role in recovery) outside of HH participation is In line with the relevant strategies of the NDP, considered minimal. the recommended needs and interventions for sectoral resilience are: (a) Distribution of fishing Disaster Risk Reduction, Drought Resilience and kits; (b) Development of local market for dried fish; Contingency Financing: risk reduction and resilience (c) Establishment of inland fish landing sites; (d) programs and contingency planning in anticipation of Development of Spate Fed Desert Aquaculture. Annex the drought are not relevant to an open access, common 3 provides a more detailed recovery action plan. Table 13: Distribution of Needs by Region Cost (USD) Somaliland Puntland Galmudug Hirabelle South West State Jubaland Benadir Total Distribution - - - 50,000 25,000 75,000 - 150,000 of Fishing Kits Development - - - 666,667 333,333 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 of Fishing Land Sites Development - - - 500,000 250,000 750,000 - 1,500,000 of Spate Fed Desert Aquaculture Development - - - 666,667 333,333 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 of Dried Fish Total Needs - - - 1,883,333 941,667 2,825,000 - 5,650,000 20 Ibid. Productive Sectors | 39 Recommendations for DDR and Building Resilience Long term investment in basic infrastructure to • in the Sector improve fish handling and storage, and thereby reduce post-harvest losses within the local market. The inland capture fisheries sub-sector is based around a largely seasonal fishery (and water-flow) and so there are Research on fish distribution and consumption •  no direct adaptive strategies that can be recommended patterns within inland communities to assess to build resilience within this context; particularly given options for distribution of fish (for example as an the significant uncertainties about the level of resources, alternative or supplement to existing food aid catch rates, number of fishers etc. Indirect adaptive distributed by WFP) strategies related to fisheries related livelihoods and Livelihoods and income generation diversification •  food security that is recommended may include: strategies (linked to other sectors). Investigating the potential for integrating fisheries •  Further research is recommended on the inter- into irrigation canal development. dependencies between traditional pastoralism and other economic activities such as fishing and the ability Dredging of key riverbed areas that have been • of HH to mix and/or switch between these activities. silted up due to the drought. There are some groups calling to encourage a wholesale Inclusion of capture and culture fisheries issues in •  shift from nomadic pastoralism to coastal fishing. integrative water resource management strategies. Table 14: Summary Needs for Fisheries Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Distribution of Fishing Kits Regional X 150,000 Development of Fish Regional X 2,000,000 Landing Sites Development of Spate Regional X 1,500,000 Fed Desert Aquaculture Development of Regional X 2,000,000 Dried Fish Total Agriculture - Fisheries Needs 5,650,000 40 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Assessment Considerations from the NDP), with fishing activity confined to 91,200 HH fishing five days a week over 130 days per year, to An assessment of impact using the estimated (MFMR) 0.7 Kg/HH/day. This is equivalent to an inland fishery of number of fishers (a total of 1,728 for four of the six target 8,300 MT per year (0.7 x 130 x 91,200) – still possibly on regions) suggests an income loss of USD 1.15 million – the high side but a relatively realistic figure. this compares with an alternative methodology used in the inland fisheries income loss spreadsheet that refers Income vs consumption of fish: Apart from specific instead to where provided FSG data, and in the absence data received for HH in the SW region, the FST has of such data, to the average per caput consumption of assumed, based on the results of the surveys completed fish (3.1 kg/annum) and number of HH across the two in the districts of Jowhar and Balcad (CEFA, 2016), that riverine regions. The following assumptions have been 66 percent (2/3) of a HH average catch is sold and 33 made and comments noted in the preparation of the percent (1/3) is consumed. This breakdown is used inland fisheries loss of income/food security spreadsheet: throughout the fisheries income loss spreadsheet. HH size: FAO FSNAU assumes a standard multiplier of Price of Fish: The FAO FSNAU use a standard fish-selling six-person per HH. However, data collected from recent price of USD 2/Kg. The FST considers this too high and fisheries surveys completed in Jowhar and Balad districts based on recent market data has used a fish-selling price in August and September 2016 (CEFA. 2016. FAO Fish of USD 1.50/Kg (even though in reality fish is sometimes Project Final Report) puts the average family size at 9.8. sold by the piece rather than by weight, larger fish still fetch higher prices). Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE): This is a complex issue as there are widely varying figures (and ways of calculating) River levels: The severity of the impact of the drought the likely CPUE. In the absence of accurate data for is estimated through the number of days in which fisheries, a number of options were evaluated by the fishing would be impossible or unproductive on the two DINA team prior to arriving at the proposed figure of an main rivers: Shabelle and Juba. River level information average per caput fish consumption of 3.1 kg (quoted obtained, suggest that during the drought period in several reports including WB/FAO. 2017. Somalia - the Shabelle would have experienced 60 days as an Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture (draft), unfishable river and the Juba would have been similarly and Breuil and Grima, 2014). This would equate for a total impossible to fish for 30 days. During these days the non-pastoral population (i.e. they obtain the majority of catch would be zero. direct protein from fish) of 2.86 million (figure provided Productive Sectors | 41 Physical Sectors Water Supply and Sanitation over 30 years. In other parts of the country rainwater harvesting through the provision of dug outs (Wars)25, Berkads26 and Mugciids27 to impound surface runoff I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions during the two rainy seasons - GU (April to June) and In 2017 Somalia’s population still had one of the lowest Deyr (October to December) - is a common feature of reported rates of access to improved drinking water and the water supply infrastructure in rural communities. sanitation facilities in the world. There are no nationally representative surveys in the past decade but based Water resource and water supply development over on two recent surveys that covered secure parts of the the past 20 years has been dominated by non-state country an estimated 59 percent of Somalis have access humanitarian actors. Over the past decade humanitarian to an improved source of drinking water within 30 minutes aid flows to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) in and 27 percent have access to an improved sanitation Somalia have averaged over USD 20 million a year.28 facility.21 Access to improved sanitation facilities in urban Communities and households have also invested in areas has fallen by half over the past 15 years. Access water supply particularly berkads for harvesting and to improved sanitation in rural areas has stagnated at a storing rainwater for people and livestock and hand- very low level currently estimated to be fewer than 10 dug wells for small scale irrigation. This combination of percent with over 56 percent of households resorting to investment by humanitarian actors, communities and open defecation.22 individual households has resulted in very low levels of access to safe water for people, inadequate permanent SWALIM during the base line period of 2013 – 2015, sources for livestock and very limited capacity of the estimated that there are around 3,733 water points, 61 government to manage these sources. percent (2,261 sources) of which were reported to be perennial, under normal conditions. Higher proportions The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources in addition of berkads23 and dams supply water for only part of the to water supply has responsibility for delivery of year compared to other sources.24 An assessment done sanitation services in both urban and rural areas. The by SWALIM on strategic boreholes between February responsibility for sanitation services is jointly shared and April 2017 on selected regions in the south and with local government authorities and the Ministry of central parts of the country identified that only 79 percent Health. Generally, Somalia is yet to put in place a vibrant of the perennial /strategic boreholes were functional. institutional framework for the delivery and oversight of sector related activities. Fragmentation of institutional Water resources in Somalia are dominated by responsibilities and lack of adequate legislation have groundwater, with the surface water mainly found along resulted in an uncoordinated development of the sector. the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the southern part of the The few established institutions are not yet fully staffed country. The two rivers flow from Ethiopia into southern and are weak and require capacity enhancement, at Somalia. During extreme dry periods the flow in both the national, regional and district level. A stakeholder rivers is not able to adequately support domestic and analysis shows that a range of actors play different roles agricultural water needs for the riverine communities. In in the water supply and sanitation sector in Somalia, with March 2016 and February to mid-March 2017 Shabelle very little or no government oversight. river dried out completely which is unprecedented in 21  017, WHO-UNICEF JMP data 2 22  UNICEF/WHO Joint Monitoring Program 2017 www.wssinfo.org 23 3 CIA, 2013, World Factbook on Somalia  24 Most berkads, dams and dug wells which supply water for a limited period within the year have not been mapped  25 Wars are dams or impoundments up to 3 m depth built in clayey soils that retain surface run off from rain with capacity of 1,500 to 50,000m3. Lining  with plastic reduces seepage. 26  Berkads have capacities of 10 to 100 m3. Covering with shrubs or iron sheets reduces evaporation thereby extending the period of use. 27 Mugciids are underground storage wells with average depth of 15 m that are used to supplement supply when all other sources are depleted.  28 OECD, 2016.  42 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM/Muse Mohammed II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact diminished with no available alternative. The rise in the number of cases of acute watery diarrhea/cholera was As Somalia goes through a series of devastating and significant – from 3113 cases and 47 deaths in January 2017 frequent droughts, the impact on the country’s hydrologic to 4621 cases and 138 deaths in February 2017.29 Due to cycle is substantial, manifested with immediate drying up of surface and ground water sources. The effect of the drought, over 926,00030 people have been displaced such a troubled cycle, beyond the immediate impact on in the past six months of 2017, many of whom are sheltered human lives and livestock, includes decline in ground in IDP settlements and host communities placing water recharge, depletion of fresh water aquifers, additional stress on scarce and dysfunctional water and reduction of surface water flow and other long-term sanitation services. damages. In March 2016 and February to mid-March The cost of vended water increased by 50 percent 2017, the Shabelle River dried out completely, unseen during the critical drought period. Price data for water in over 30 years. vended by tanker trucks, carts and kiosks shows that Furthermore, drought has affected not only the following the failed Deyr rains in November 2016 the quantity but also the quality of drinking water. There average cost of water went up from USD 4 to USD 6 per are noticeable weaknesses in the water sector related cubic meter (m3).31 In addition to higher average costs, to water quality testing and monitoring. Weaknesses there was greater variability in water prices during the in regulating water quality are compounded by the period December 2016 to April 2017. This variability was relatively poor understanding of how the water supplies location specific with the cost in water scarce places such become contaminated and the risks associated with the as Laas Caanood and Xudun reaching over USD 50 per use of contaminated water. m3. Other factors that may have contributed to higher water prices in the north are the higher livestock numbers Because of drought, the prevalence of illness amongst and more dispersed nature of pastoralist livelihoods. children has increased as the quality of water has 29 W  HO, Cholera in Somalia, monthly situation update, August 2017 30 Somalia Displacement dashboard, Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), cumulative 1 Jan. – 31 Aug. 2017.  31  Collated by FSNAU from various sources (FEWSNET, SWALIM, FSNAU) Physical Sectors | 43 The regions hardest hit by higher water prices were wells in the town have dried up due to the drought. Sool, Sanaag, Bakool, Bay, Nugaal, Bari, Galgaduud A similar assessment in Puntland suggests that many where localized price increases were extremely volatile shallow wells have reportedly dried up and the water reaching ten times average prices in the case of Sool levels of most boreholes have decreased to abnormally region. These regions also lost around 80 percent of low levels, forcing many boreholes to operate more their water available for productive uses. Other regions hours to serve the demand.34 less effected by vended water price increases – Awdal, Mudug, Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed – also lost Effects on Production of Goods and Services and Access 80 percent of their water available for productive to Goods and Services uses. Data on the regions through which the Juba and Humanitarian aid may have led to an increase in the cost Shebelle rivers run was not as good as in other regions of vended water. Water trucking was a key component of and though they are also experiencing lower flows they the humanitarian response. Around a third of the USD 25 may have been less impacted by the drought. Though million humanitarian response was channeled into water there is no regularly collected data on water levels in trucking and water vouchers for over a million people. berkhads (cisterns), dams, hand-dug wells and springs Other factors that may have contributed to higher water these were widely reported as having been impacted prices in the north are the higher livestock numbers and by the drought. By contrast boreholes, particularly the more dispersed nature of pastoralist livelihoods. The those supplying town utilities, were more resilient to the higher livestock numbers in the north would have driven drought but with some notable exceptions. Boreholes demand for water up during the drought period. played an important role in ensuring water security – particularly for people. Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities In displacement, women face heightened risk of Drought Effects sexual and gender based violence, exacerbated by The 2016-2017 drought resulted in outbreak of water- overcrowded makeshift facilities without adequate borne diseases and people in critical need of humanitarian safety and security measures – from lighting to safe assistance. It is estimated that 4.4 million people need and dignified WASH facilities. Women and girls, who water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) assistance. have the primary responsibility for collecting water for Despite the commitment of the major sectoral actors to domestic use, are now traveling increased distances in improve access to water and sanitation services, Somalia search of water. In the Sanaag region of Somalia, for still has some of the worst indicators for access to example, the journey to reach water is reportedly up to water and sanitation in the world with Joint Monitoring 125km roundtrip. Program estimates showing that national coverage for safe drinking water and sanitation stands respectively Based on the regional water source composition a at 59 percent and 27 percent32 with large number of drought vulnerability index can be used to estimate population (56 percent) still practicing open defecation. reductions in water availability. The index is a crude The quality of water used for domestic purposes is means of estimating the potential reduction in water also reduced by preferences for surface water compared availability in regions during a severe drought – useful for to groundwater. loss analysis. Three examples are worth describing here (see Figure 4). Bakool region has a very high number of Only one in five Somalis use both improved water and people per borehole making it water insecure. Mudug improved sanitation, although almost half of urban region has a low number of people per functional dwellers do so compared with just four percent of those borehole making it relatively water secure. However, in rural areas. In Somalia, an average of 90 percent of more counter intuitive is that Woqooyi Galbeed, though schools does not have access to safe drinking water and having a relatively low number of people per borehole 61 percent do not have functional latrines.33 The lack of has a high number of vulnerable sources which means safe WASH facilities continues to put displaced women drought would reduce water availability severely in and girls at risk of sexual violence. the region making it relatively water insecure. In this last example of drought impact on Woqooyi Galbeed Effects on Infrastructure and Physical assets region there would likely be enough water for people but drought would have a larger economic impact by WASH assessment in Lower Juba (South-Central reducing the water available alternative sources for Somalia) indicates that a total of 30 out of the 35 shallow economic uses. 32  HO-UNICEF Joint Monitoring Program, 2015 W 33 UNICEF. 2016. Somalia Education Cluster Final Report 2016.  34  UNICEF. 2017. Situation Report: May 2017. 44 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment 35  AO SWALIM F 36 Ibid. Physical Sectors | 45 Damages and Losses SWALIM on strategic boreholes between February and April 2017 on selected regions in the south and central The water supply and sanitation related damages are parts of the country identified that only 79 percent of largely associated with the impact on water sources the perennial /strategic boreholes were functional. From such as complete drying up of boreholes, shallow the various data sources, it has been estimated that a wells, hand dug wells, berkads, dams, water pans and total of 202 boreholes, 387 shallow wells, 29 berkads37 springs. Though the proportion of none functional water schemes in Somalia is estimated to be very high, drawing require complete replacement while 380 of boreholes, a clear attribution of damage only for the drought 728 shallow wells, 54 berkads need to be rehabilitated. is a challenge. However, effort was made to collect The total damage on water supply schemes is estimated actual damage data from states using a data collection to be USD 41,958,000. format, making extensive use of data collected by FAO In the context of Somalia, and particularly Central SWALIM and triangulation of all this with various studies South where the impacts of drought and flooding have and assessments and satellite imagery comparison historically been more severe, access to clean water collected by the consulting firm Ispos. The damage and improved sanitation and hygiene is important for was calculated considering the prevailing market price ensuring children’s safety and resilience. Lack of water for the construction of new schemes as well as the cost during periods of drought have proven a major factor for rehabilitating schemes refereeing an ongoing draft forcing children out of schools. A 2016 rapid survey working documents from the Somalia WASH cluster by UNICEF on 1225 schools in South West clearly technical working group. shows that, only 35.3 percent of secondary schools SWALIM has estimated a total of 3,733 water sources, of reported having access to some type of water supply, which under normal conditions only 2,261 (61 percent) while 64.7 percent reported not having access to water were reported to be perennial. An assessment done by supply at all. 37  ost assessments done focus on boreholes, and to some extent shallow wells and springs, as they are considered more strategic for drought M response. Generally, it is estimated that the number of Berkads across the country is big but are not mapped properly. 46 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The spike in water prices is estimated to have added addition to the recurrent drought, overuse of existing around USD 20 million to the cost of water in no-riverine water sources has also contributed to stretching the regions over the critical 4-month drought period. While long and short term plans and development goals. The only crude estimates of the volume of vended water medium-term projection requires massive investments can be made, the need to heavily rely on borehole for replacement and expansion of the existing water for the critical 4-month drought period could infrastructure to meet increasing demand of water both have generated costs in the region of USD 60 million. in rural and urban areas and to minimize the shock This estimate is based on the production capacity of during drought and build resilience. all available boreholes in non-riverine regions being pumped for 12 hours a day.38 The average premium III. Cross-cutting Considerations of USD 2 per m3 would have added USD 20 million to pre-drought costs. While some of these additional costs Gender based violence (GBV) is a significant protection were funded by humanitarian aid (assuming USD 10m challenge that is prevalent throughout Somalia and is was spent on water trucking) up to USD 50 million may likely to be exacerbated by the drought related crisis, have to be paid for directly by households in remote as women and girls travel longer distances without water scarce areas. These higher water costs will have protection to fetch water, and particularly for IDPs indebted many poor households requiring them to pay traveling outside formal or informal settlement areas. back from their future livestock production gains and Women and girls travelling to and from IDP settlements, driving inequality within communities. are exposed to serious risk of violence while travelling to WASH facilities, including water points, cooking and The effect of drought on water supply and sanitation sanitation facilities that are limited, located far from and the associated impacts are too many to list. It is homes. In most circumstances, women and girls must manifested on reduced productivity both in agriculture travel through unsafe areas and usually after nightfall to and livestock, impacts human productivity to the extent relieve themselves. Open defecation affects women’s of loss of human life, increased medical expenses, direct health and poses an increased risk to GBV. impact on school attendance and many others. However, quantifying these losses is not an easy exercise due to The scarcity of water and absence of men due to drought both the data and information gap. For this exercise, and conflict has resulted in an increase in women’s impact on house-hold income because of the need to work burden in the household. Women and girls, who spend more on water (recognizing the fact that private have the primary responsibility for collecting water for water service providers in Somalia during draught domestic use, are now traveling increased distances time have a tradition of reducing tariffs substantially) in search of water. As reflected in the Gender DINA, was factored in calculating losses to arrive at a in the Sanaag region of Somalia, the journey to reach monetary equivalent. water is reportedly up to 125km roundtrip. In the face of increased drought-related diseases, women’s unpaid care work has also exponentially grown. Drought Impact (Economic and Social Impact) With decreased access to safe water, compounded Climate change is undoubtedly an important issue when by the drying up of rivers, lack of technical expertise addressing environmental challenges for WASH. Water to rehabilitate the few existing over-congested water resource sustainability is directly and progressively sources resulted in the escalation of acute watery affected by climate change and environmental diarrhea (AWD)/Cholera and prevalence of childhood unsustainability. Most parts of Somalia are expected illnesses have increased. The lack of standardized to receive average to below average Deyr seasonal hygiene and sanitation facilities has also contributed rainfall between October-December 2017, however, to a rapid increase in cases of AWD/cholera. The predicted warmer temperatures for the same Deyr unavailability and shortage of water may lead to violent period indicates the combined impact will lead to faster interclan conflicts due to scarce food and water services depletion of water sources. Contingency measures which will degenerate and worsen the Somalia security should be put in place to quickly respond to any flooding situation with a potential to lead to more displacement. which could lead to contamination of water sources in flood prone areas. The existing urban and rural infrastructures in Somalia are aged and in some cases, go beyond design age. In 38 Collated by FSNAU from various sources (FEWSNET, SWALIM, FSNAU)  Physical Sectors | 47 IV. Recovery Needs conservatively close to one third of this i.e about 500 new boreholes were considered in calculating the needs. Boreholes play an important role in ensuring water security – particularly for people. In non-riverine regions, A recent draft working document from the Somalia WASH a lower number of people per functional borehole would cluster, on minimum WASH guidelines was referred make them less vulnerable to drought. This is because to calculate the monetary equivalent of the recovery boreholes are less vulnerable than other sources to needs for Water Supply and sanitation. According to drought – especially as berkads and dams but also the guideline, on average new construction costs USD dug-wells and springs. However, the composition of 110,000 for Boreholes, USD 5,000 for Shallow wells and other sources also matters particularly for economic USD 7,000 for Berkads, while rehabilitation costs are productivity as humanitarian assistance will prioritize USD 40,000, 3,000 and 4,000 respectively, and this was water for people over water for other economic activities. considered in estimating the needs. Both prior to and during the humanitarian response Any future recovery needs assessment will not be to the drought, not enough was done to increase the complete without due consideration to strengthen the availability of strategic water sources in water insecure sector institutions. The newly established Ministry of areas. More emphasis should be put on rehabilitating Energy and Water Resources so far was only able to fill existing boreholes and drilling of strategic boreholes few of the top management positions with almost all able to supply people in times of drought. Livestock technical positions remaining vacant. Discussion with also need equal treatment regarding water needs. state authorities also indicated that sector institutions at Post drought estimates indicate that, there are about state and district level are even more at infant stage than 3,732,016 cattle, 6,195,330 camels and 36,561,961 the federal. There is a need to quickly bring on board sheep and goats requiring 30, 35 and 8 liters of water per critical core staff at the national, regional and district day respectively.39 levels and it requires strengthening to achieve results and sustain the gains both from the current as well as future Urban areas provide economic resilience from dry interventions. A 2015 general assessment by the African shocks and for internally displaced people, but are Development Bank identified a total USD 34.3 million to highly constrained by the lack of investment in water meet identified sector institutional strengthening and services. The lack of investment in water services capacity building needs over a period and this was also holds back opportunities for productive livelihoods considered in estimating the needs. and leads to tensions between host and migrant populations. Though the immediate recovery effort to The recovery work is proposed to be in phases Short rehabilitate existing schemes and construct new ones term (less than one year); Medium term (2-3 Years) will support the needs of IDPs, almost all urban areas and long term which is more than 4 years. This allows in Somalia need immediate support to improve water a cascaded approach that considers immediate needs, supply and sanitation services and that needs to be implementation and absorption capacity. Therefore, appropriately considered. the first year shall focus on immediate rehabilitation of most of the water supply schemes, while construction of For the immediate drought recovery needs of water new schemes shall be planned for intermediate phase supply, water schemes, such as boreholes, shallow wells to have time for site selection, designs and mobilization and berkads were considered both for rehabilitation of equipment. Institutional strengthening and capacity and new construction. It was assumed that 21 percent40 building should spread across the planning horizon with of these schemes (202 Boreholes, 387 Shallow wells some immediate needs such as staffing, office facilities, and 29 Berkads) have completely dried up and need communication, and putting in place a mobile operation to be replaced by a new one. In the absence of site and maintenance crew at state level. specific inventory, it will be difficult to arrive accurately on the rehabilitation need. For practical purposes, it The total recovery needs for the WASH sector were was assumed that rehabilitating half of the remaining estimated at USD 180.7 million. The recovery needs schemes (380 Boreholes, 728 Shallow wells and 54 proposed for the sector are detailed in the recovery Berkads) be a rational approach to arrive at a reasonable needs table below (Table 15). In addition, the breakdown needs estimate. Moreover the daily water need for of recovery needs by Federal Member States as indicated current livestock and IDPs around the three major urban in Figure 7 were as follows; Somaliland, USD 36.3 million; areas (Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayu) is estimated to Putland USD 32.7 million; Galmudug USD 10.9 million; be 631,462 M3 per day. Assuming a Borehole to yield Hirshabelle USD 14.5 million; South West State USD 10 liters/second and with 12 hours of pumping per day, 21.8 million; Jubaland USD 21.8 million; and Benadir the water demand translates into 1461 Boreholes. But USD 7.3 million. 39 Collated by the Agriculture and Livestock team of DINA, October 2017. 40 Collated by SWALIM from various sources  48 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 15: Summary Needs for Water Supply and Sanitation Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Construction of National X X X 77,000,000 new boreholes Rehabilitation of non-func- National X 15,200,000 tional boreholes Construction of new National X 1,935,000 protected shallow wells Rehabilitation and National X X 2,184,000 protection of non-functional shallow wells Construction of National X 203,000 new berkads Rehabilitation of berkads National X 216,000 Institutional strengthening National X 34,000,000 and Capacity building Urban rural sanitation District/ X X X 50,000,000 (drainage, sewage and municipal level solid waste management) Total Water Supply and Sanitation Needs 180,738,000 Physical Sectors | 49 © IOM/Muse Mohammed Transport for the assessment of the road network in Somalia and the existing road condition. It was noted that different sources of data provided different information that I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions needed to be reconciled for this assessment. The transport sector is considered an enabling sector for other sectors, providing linkages to regional trade For example, a study by UNOPS, EU and AfDB in 2015 and socio-economic activities. In Somalia, roads are identified 21,830 km of roads in Somalia, with 2,750 km the only mode of land transportation in the country; or 12 percent paved (Table 16). For such a large country therefore, the assessment and interventions of the of over 600,000 km2, this figure represents a very low sector have been concentrated on them as they provide road density of 3.5 km per 100 km2 of land. Presumably, access to areas affected by the drought. The analysis many other roads and paths have not been mapped below considers different data sources that were used or classified. Table 16: Classified Road Network in Somalia (km)41 Surface Type FGS Puntland* ISWA* Somaliland Total Paved 986 806 115 850 2,757 Unpaved 6,882 3,261 1,010 7,920 19,073 Total 7,868 4,067 1,125 8,770 21,830 * Part of FGS, Federal Government of Somalia 41 UNOPS, EU and AfDB (2015).  50 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Data from Ipsos indicated 17,000km (Table 17). This data was disaggregated according to the length of roads in each region and gives more detail in terms of road class distribution of the network per region. Table 17: Length of Regional Roads According to Class (km)42 Region Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Awdal 90.72 302.72 86.32 479.76 Bakool 254.70 260.41 412.87 927.98 Benadir 26.24 0.00 25.21 51.45 Bari 339.57 11.62 1231.97 1583.16 Bay 197.79 437.89 716.70 1352.38 Galgaduud 234.78 299.88 403.16 937.82 Gedo 437.95 455.09 668.47 1561.51 Hiraan 379.40 378.90 100.88 859.18 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 331.02 48.82 180.02 559.86 Juba Hoose (Lower) 124.09 301.80 731.36 1157.25 Mudug 208.29 482.47 1012.09 1702.85 Nugaal 387.37 184.19 91.82 663.38 Sanaag 358.03 500.37 512.33 1370.73 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 152.33 375.06 29.16 556.55 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 370.39 87.98 200.23 658.60 Sool 465.75 0.09 227.07 692.91 Togdheer 350.85 0.00 348.46 699.31 Woqooyi Galbeed 264.25 521.62 419.75 1205.62 Total 4973.52 4648.91 7397.87 Total Network Length 17020.30 The World Bank estimated about 104,000 km of potential roads in its contribution to Somalia’s Country Economic Memorandum. This figure includes cutlines, in addition to the approximated 22,000 km by UNOPS. The cutlines have been used as foot paths and minor motorable tracks where people can walk or drive on, regardless of the limited official road network. If these cutlines are included, the total length of all potential roads would reach 126,000 km (Table 18). Figure 8 of a map of Somalia shows the road network, with further details of accessibility due to security constraints. Using available satellite imagery, this potential road network was mapped as shown in Figure 9. 42 Ipsos 2017 data.  Physical Sectors | 51 © IOM/Muse Mohammed The following categories of roads are used: Main roads: Roads connecting major towns • and economic centers Tertiary roads: Roads linking main roads • and other roads Track roads: Minor path and feeder or access roads • Streets: Roads within major towns, such • as national capitals Residential roads: Roads within residential • areas - outside major towns Most roads in Somalia are in poor condition due to lack of proper maintenance caused by the long periods of civil war. Detailed road condition is difficult to assess even if high-resolution satellite imagery is available. Based on visual assessment of satellite imagery by the World Bank, approximately 7,960 km of roads or 7.6 percent of the total network (including unclassified feeder roads) are considered to be in good or fair condition. Good roads are paved roads that look dark and are not eroded. Fair roads are either paved roads in fair condition or good gravel roads that are motorable. All other earth roads and paths, as well as potholed or worn out paved roads are considered as poor condition. See Figure 9 for examples of satellite imagery. 52 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 18: Length of Roads Mapped Using Satellite Imagery43 Type Number of Roads Total Length (km) Main Road 2,149 3,589 Tertiary Road 1,029 338 Track Road 51,502 96,597 Street 23,130 2,460 Residential Road 12,100 1,070 Service Road 62 20 Cutlines 7,725 22,197 Total 97,697 126,271 Somalia is relatively highly urbanized with most of the population living in or near cities. However, many farmers and pastoralists still live in rural areas and are not well connected to domestic or international markets. According to the 2014 Population Estimations Survey for Somalia (PESS), there are about 12.3 million people in Somalia, of which 5.2 million or about 40 percent of the total live in urban areas.45 This means that about 7.1 million people still live far from a road that is in good or fair condition. Out of the 21,830 km of roads46 (including unclassified feeder roads), only about 6 percent of the total network is estimated to be in good or fair condition (Figure 9). This means that market accessibility is a challenge for most farmers in Somalia, more so in the drought-affected areas. 43 W  orld Bank Estimations based on Ipsos data. 44 Ibid. 45 Federal Republic of Somalia. 2014. Population Estimation Survey 2014: For the 18 Pre-war Regions of Somalia.  46 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. National Development Plan (2017-2019).  Physical Sectors | 53 costs of construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of works transferred to the client and thereby the end-user. These effects are abstract and have not been quantified in this report. The drought brings on the prospect of increased transportation costs due to scarcity of commodities that need to be transported over longer distances, which would in turn translate into higher fuel costs for the transportation enterprises. Consequently, these costs would end up being paid by the end-user and will be evidenced by huge differences between farm gate and retail prices for most commodities. Seasonal jobs offered by transporters e.g. truck drivers, assistants, transport laborers and mechanics, would also be affected negatively. Security is a challenge, and implementation of any set of interventions will be affected by it. There are two types of conflict that will affect the implementation of works: al-Shabaab inflicted areas and inter-tribal or inter-community conflicts. Security improvement is a necessary condition to accelerate recovery efforts on the ground. Meanwhile improving accessibility can result in economic opportunities and contribute to peace and stability as long as the masses believe that there is fair distribution. According to the WFP, some of the primary roads are currently closed or difficult to pass due to conflict while other roads are impassable due to broken II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact bridges. Interventions in conflict areas will require There are no direct damages for the transport intense consultation with communities to avoid inducing infrastructure related to the drought, except transport conflict when carrying out works and to avoid activities services. These would incur losses relating to the overall that would facilitate al-Shabaab activities, that would impacts of the drought on key sectors of the economy, end up bringing overall negative impacts. which depend on transportation services. The prevalence of conflict presents major obstacles to the implementation of any activities in the sector. Drought Effects It has caused several institutional set ups to be Limited availability of goods to be transported, due to underdeveloped. The transport sector is one of the the drought, especially agricultural commodities, would sectors affected by this and does not have proper bring secondary effects on transport services. However, structures to effectively perform its activities e.g. these effects are difficult to quantify across the country. contractor registration, car registration, monitoring Some of the losses experienced by transporters might services and other enforcement issues. There is also be compensated when government imports food and lack of clear definition of terms of references for staff in relief items that need to be distributed to the affected the sector and the different stakeholders, against which areas, requiring the services of the transport sector performance can be measured. This poses a challenge enterprises. Meanwhile the difference between the in enforcement, procurements, implementation of losses and gains would be minimal to such an extent that activities and service delivery. While there are some they may balance out. qualified professionals in the sector, registration of engineers and consultants is not properly structured For road infrastructure, earthworks during road and it is difficult to appreciate the extent of the existing construction require water for compaction to acquire the capacities available on the market. Capacity building for proper strength of the road formation. Scarcity of water the sector is very vital for sustainability of interventions. will force contractors/workers to source water over longer Strategies for implementation of programs will require distances increasing their operating costs. This will in to take into consideration the security aspect and ensure turn translate into either poor quality of works or higher proper mitigation measures are employed. 47 DINA team estimates based on Ipsos data.  54 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment With regard to displacement, there is evidence of experience of some NGOs engaged in the sector e.g. transport infrastructure’s influence on IDP settlement International Labor Organization (ILO) will be employed, patterns. Figure 11 shows IDP settlements in Kismayo where communities are contracted directly to carry out in relation to primary road infrastructure. Access to labor intensive works but an individual supervisor (local) transport is a key service for IDPs, as it connects IDPs is employed to ensure quality of works. to livelihood opportunities and access to additional municipal services, and should be considered when Displacement and Migration: The movement of people planning future transport infrastructure works. will cause some areas to have inadequate local workers for labor-intensive works while more demand for work would be available in areas to which more people have migrated. Works programs will need to take this into consideration when designing projects. Environment & Natural Resources: Environmental issues should be considered in all road works. For instance, the natural habitat of pests and animals would need to be conserved as much as possible and trees should not be cut unnecessarily during implementation. Measures should be taken to replace vegetative cover where it has been removed due to the works. rivate Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: The P recovery of the private sector is vital for the economy of the country. Wherever possible, Government could consider cutting on taxes for transporters to minimize costs that are transmitted to the consumer for transported goods. Consideration should also be made when procuring works, goods and services, to give priority to the local private sector wherever possible in order to improve capacity. Damages and Losses  D isaster Risk Reduction, Drought Resilience and There are no damages and losses computed for the Contingency Financing: For resilience, all infrastructure transport sector since the infrastructure was not directly needs to be constructed using the building-back-better impacted. The secondary losses experienced for the concept for sustainability. transport services are difficult to compute and have not been included in the analysis. IV. Recovery Needs The main objective of recovery in the transport sector III. Cross-cutting Considerations is to provide accessibility to drought-affected areas Gender: In transport, gender issues will need to be by maintaining and rehabilitating roads that are in incorporated in interventions by letting more women bad condition to allow for relief initiatives to reach the participate in road construction works. In addition, intended victims. This maintenance and rehabilitation interventions should take into consideration concerns of will need to follow a building-back-better concept in women, e.g. safety of transport services. order to build resilience to future climate shocks. Social Protection & Safety Nets: Since the livelihood of For sectors directly impacted by the drought e.g. communities is hugely affected, employment will need to agriculture, food security, water supply, sanitation and be considered to allow the local people to earn a living. hygiene, and health, the transport sector is incorporated Labor intensive methods of road rehabilitation will be to support their recovery and resilience efforts by considered for rehabilitation works especially for feeder providing improved linkages between the population, roads. Schemes will be designed in such a way that social services and markets. Recovery interventions local people are engaged whilst ensuring good quality include rehabilitation and maintenance of roads and works through proper supervision and monitoring. The bridges at a cost of USD 147.9 million aimed at providing Physical Sectors | 55 improved linkages, targeting areas that are hard hit either rehabilitation or reconstruction. Reconstruction by the drought, and those that require various relief works will aim at linkages that are completely destroyed initiatives. The initiatives are expected to contribute but are critical for the recovery, especially primary roads. to the people’s socio-economic activities and improve These would require bitumen surfacing and/or low their livelihood through improved accessibility and volume paving. Meanwhile some of the primary roads short-term employment from the labor-intensive road that would bring positive impact but are not completely rehabilitation works. The building-back-better concept destroyed may receive basic maintenance to make will be applied for sustainability of the rehabilitation them passable. The other roads, mainly feeder roads, works. The interventions recommended for the transport will require rehabilitation, mostly gravel. Depending sector are: short-term rehabilitation, reconstruction and on several factors like security, availability of labor and maintenance of 1099 km of roads; and medium-term extent of road damage, some may be rehabilitated rehabilitation, reconstruction and maintenance of 1008 using equipment while others would use labor intensive km of roads. methods. Labor intensive methods would be vital in order to provide short-term employment to communities and improve their livelihoods, and at the same time to Recovery Strategy for the Sector impart basic skills on road rehabilitation techniques, with For recovery, the respective sectors have come up with the hope that they can be used to sustain the roads. interventions that are aimed at reducing and mitigating the impact of the drought on the livelihood of people, Recommendations for DRR and Building especially the rural poor. The transport sector aims at Resilience in Sector bringing accessibility to those areas that have been prioritized for interventions by the respective sectors. All projects formulated for rehabilitation and Somalia is highly urbanized with most people living in or reconstruction of roads and bridges will require to follow near cities. However, a good number of the population standard procedures and technical requirements with still lives in rural areas and lack accessibility in general, regards to road construction standards applicable to especially outside of Mogadishu. While it is important the region. This will ensure that the building-back-better for the country to focus its recovery needs on the whole concept is properly captured for resilience in the sector. road network since the whole country is affected, there is To achieve this, a consulting firm would need to be need to prioritize the interventions in order to maximize engaged as technical assistance to conduct a detailed on the available resources. analysis of the roads and bridges and come up with detailed designs that can be used by contractors and Recovery is divided into short, medium and long term communities for construction and rehabilitation. interventions. Several roads are selected to receive Table 19: Summary Needs for Transport Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Short-term Regional X 83,600,000 rehabilitation, reconstruction and maintenance of 1099 km of roads Medium-term Regional X 64,300,000 rehabilitation, reconstruction and maintenance of 1008 km of roads Total Transport Needs 147,900,000 56 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Environment, Clean Energy and Natural The south-central and southwestern regions of the Resource Management country are characterized by large swathes of grasslands, scattered farmlands, and are home to the two main river systems in the country (Juba and Shebelle). The I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions high plateaus of northern Somalia is comprised mainly Somalia’s environmental complement, especially the of low formations of arid scrublands and scattered vegetation resources, offers contrasting experiences, grass clumps crossed by broad, shallow and generally and this is due to the spatial and temporal precipitation dry watercourses.51 These watercourses have water for distributions.48 The Somali climate is typically hot and short periods during rainy seasons, and are thus able to semiarid to arid, with two annual rainy seasons (Gu provide short-term fodder (usually no more than 5 to 6 and Deyr). There are variations in spatial distributions months in a year) for transhumant livestock populations. of rainfall, with about 500 mm recorded annually in With increase in elevation and rainfall in the mountain the northern highlands and between 300 and 500 mm ranges of the north, the vegetation becomes denser in the southern regions.49 The coastal plains register and includes aloes, woodlands, and remnants of juniper only between 50 and 150 mm. Annual potential forests and candelabra euphorbia. In the more arid evapotranspiration (PET) is high, exceeding 2,000 mm in highlands of the northeast, Boswellia and commiphora the northern basins and can be as high as 3,000 mm in trees are sources, respectively, of frankincense and the Gulf of Aden.50 Over the dry period the vegetation myrrh, production of which Somalia has been renowned is sustained mainly through the shallow aquifers found for since ancient times.52 However, vegetation in large along the dry river beds (togga) across the country. Fertile parts of the northern coastal plains is denuded: thus, flood plains and continuous recharge from the Juba large areas are almost bereft of vegetation even in the and Shabelle Rivers, both originating from Ethiopian best of times, due to inappropriate land uses, including highlands, also provide sustained development growth extensive production of unregulated charcoal. along the riverine areas. Between 1990 and 2000, Somalia lost an average of Approximately 98 percent of the country is dry landmass, 76,700 hectares of forestland per year.53 This amounts with less than 2 percent of the landmass under water. to an average annual deforestation rate of 0.93 percent. Dictated by shifts in the wind patterns, the country’s Between 2000 and 2005, the rate of forest loss increased environmental resources and agricultural livelihoods to 1.02 percent per annum. In total, between 1990 and revolve around four main seasons: 2005, Somalia lost 14 percent of its forest cover, or around 1,151,000 hectares.54 Along the Juba/Shebelle Gu’: April to June, which is the main rainy season • catchments, agro-pastoralism is the norm, but land for the country. degradation often occurs due to inappropriate land • Xagaa: July to September, which is cool, dry, and use. Large volumes of sediments are transported along windy in the interior and with some showers in the the two rivers - up to 18 million cubic meters in Juba55 northwest highlands and south coastal areas along and 15 million cubic meters in Shebelle56 annually, as a the Indian Ocean. result of poor land use in the upper catchments, both in Somalia and Ethiopia. These sediments end up being Deyr: October to December, which is the second • deposited further downstream as the river’s carrying rainy season but with less rainfall amounts than the capacity goes down. Gu’ season. Jiilaal: January to March, which is the longest dry • and hot period in the country. 48 W  WF. 2017. Somalia Montane Xeric Woodlands. 49 FAO-SWALIM. 2007.Water Resources of Somalia.  50 Zeila, A., and Guyo, M. 2013. Natural Resources Management Project Baseline Survey Report. CARE International and Adeso  51  Metz, Helen C., ed. 1992. Somalia: A Country Study. Washington: GPO for the Library of Congress. 52  Zeila and Guyo. 2013. 53 Forest cover loss and gain interactive map (http://www.globalforestwatch.org/map/). 54 UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Center. 55 Masterplan for Juba Valley Development, April 1990. 56 Surface and underground water resources of the Shebelle Valley. Physical Sectors | 57 II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact Effects and Impacts on Vegetation Resources The 2017 Somalia drought has significantly reduced annual and seasonal NDVI (see Figure 12), with much more degradation of vegetation occurring in the southern regions of the country. The magnitude and direction of the de- trended NDVI under drought stress varied with season and vegetation type. However, the overall impact on vegetation has seen drastic reductions in aggregate natural vegetation standing biomass in grazing lands, with a national average loss of 68 percent of natural standing vegetation in the drought period (or 113,282 km2, accounting for 18 percent of the total national landmass). The damages range from a low of 5 percent in Bari region (or 105,000 ha denuded) to a high of 93 percent each in Gedo (desiccation of 892,000 ha of grazing land as well as dense stands of commiphora and acacia species) and Middle Juba (desiccation of 641,000 ha of grazing lands). Total damages and losses on the vegetation resources as a result of the 2017 drought are estimated at USD 227 million and USD 315 million, requiring USD 59 million as restitution costs. Table 20: Impact of the 2017 Somalia Drought on Vegetation Resources Region Sub-region Proportion of total Total biomass Total economic vegetation biomass lost (ha)58 losses of vegetation lost (%)57 biomass (USD)59 North-west Awdal 29% 182,700 5,075,000 Sanaag 7% 113,400 3,150,000 Sool 21% 298,200 8,283,333 Togdheer 29% 356,700 9,908,333 Woqooyi Galbeed 29% 391,500 10,875,000 North-east Bari 5% 105,000 24,800,000 Mudug 36% 756,000 45,750,000 Galgaduud 31% 399,900 17,825,000 Nugaal 18% 54,583 1,516,200 Juba River Area Gedo 93% 892,800 24,800,000 Lower Juba 90% 1,647,000 45,750,000 Middle Juba 93% 641,700 17,825,000 Shebelle River Area Hiraan 63% 642,600 17,850,000 Lower Shabelle 88% 660,000 18,333,333 Middle Shabelle 68% 448,800 12,466,667 Inter-riverine/Other Bakool 93% 753,300 20,925,000 Benadir 21% 10,439 289,975 Bay 90% 1,053,000 29,250,000 Total National 11,328,222 314,672,841 57 I psos data 2017. 58 ENR taskforce projections. 59 See Assessment Considerations for the permutations used to arrive at these estimates. 58 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Effects and Impacts on Biodiversity: Somalia’s biodiversity (including 5,000 plant species, with remarkable plant endemism, and 1,332 animal species) is categorized into six eco-regions: five terrestrial regions and one aquatic coastal region. The Acacia – Commiphora bushland is the dominant eco- region among the terrestrial zones, whereas the aquatic eco-region is confined to the coastal belt and associated wetlands. Although the level of degradation is evident in all the five zones,60 the available data is limited, with access to most of the biodiversity hotspots restricted by the unstable security situation in the country. Nevertheless, evidence suggests that degradation is ongoing, with almost no investment in replenishment. © UNDP Somalia Many of the potential flagship species are either locally extinct or otherwise threatened. 60 Federal Republic of Somalia. 2015. National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan.  Physical Sectors | 59 The continued effect of droughts and inappropriate land use practices have paired to result in widespread destruction of plant life, which has in turn also fragmented and decreased animal habitats and reduced forage, negative impacting not only Somalia’s most important economic resource (livestock complement of goats, sheep, camels, and cattle), but also its wildlife. While there are far fewer wildlife numbers in the north (due to the much more extensive land degradation) and despite the absence of protected areas, there are still some significant presence of wildlife species in the south: hyenas, foxes, leopards, lions, warthogs, ostriches, small antelopes, and a large variety of birds. Total damages and losses in the country’s biodiversity resources as a result of the 2017 drought are estimated at USD 0.4 million and USD 72 million, requiring USD 6 million as restitution costs. Table 21: Impact of the 2017 Somalia Drought on Biodiversity Region Sub-region Expansion of land Wildlife mortality colonized by invasive (% of all ungulates) species61 (ha) North-west Awdal 29% Sanaag 7% Sool 21% Togdheer 29% Woqooyi Galbeed 400 29% North-east Bari 5% Mudug 120 36% Galgaduud 31% Nugaal 700 18% Juba River Area Gedo 93% Lower Juba 90% Middle Juba 93% Shebelle River Area Hiraan 63% Lower Shabelle 88% Middle Shabelle 68% Inter-riverine/Other Bakool 93% Benadir 21% Bay 90% Total National 1220 Studies by SWALIM show that Prosopis has colonized vast swathes of formerly important grazing lands in Puntland and Somaliland, with a particularly high concentration in the Woqooyi Galbeed region. In addition, biodiversity related livelihoods such as frankincense, myrrh, etc., have been adversely affected due to drought’s impact on the habitat. The drought also triggered excessive use of these resources, due to diminishing conventional livelihoods elsewhere. Therefore, the livelihood as well as its resource base (habitat) is degenerated. Effects and Impacts on Soil Resources and Soil Quality: There has been severe impact on the soil resources of Somalia because of the 2017 drought in the country. This assessment projects that 93,000 tons of topsoil has been eroded as a direct result of the drought in 2017, in the process resulting in aggregate damages and losses in soil fertility functions and ecosystem services estimated at USD 36 million and USD 3 million, respectively. 61 Prosopis juliflora  60 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 22: Impact of the 2017 Somalia Drought on Soil Resources and Soil Quality Region Sub-region Total volumes of Loss of soil fertility Reduction in yields soils eroded (wind function (USD of cereals and erosion, in MT) equivalent) legumes (average, in MT)62 North-west Awdal 3,150 548,100 1,575 Sanaag 8,100 340,200 4,050 Sool 2,130 894,600 1,065 Togdheer 6,150 1,070,100 3,075 Woqooyi Galbeed 6,750 1,174,500 3,375 North-east Bari 10,500 2,678,400 5,250 Mudug 10,500 4,941,000 5,250 Galgaduud 6,450 1,925,100 3,225 Nugaal 455 163,750 227 Juba River Area Gedo 4,800 2,678,400 2,400 Lower Juba 9,150 4,941,000 4,575 Middle Juba 3,450 1,925,100 1,725 Shebelle River Area Hiraan 5,100 1,927,800 2,550 Lower Shabelle 3,750 1,980,000 1,875 Middle Shabelle 3,300 1,346,400 1,650 Inter-riverine/Other Bakool 4,050 2,259,900 2,025 Benadir 249 31,317 124 Bay 5,850 3,159,000 2,925 Total National 93,883 33,984,666 46,941 In the past two decades, Somali rural communities have On the other hand, April to June Gu rainfall started two faced unprecedented food and livelihood crises. Small- weeks later than normal and were below average in all scaled subsistence farmers, who depend on rain-fed areas, except in the northeast where rainfall totals were agricultural production systems for their livelihoods, near average. April rainfall deficits led to crop wilting in have recently suffered from the worst drought in 60 rain-fed areas and many farmers replanted. Late April/ years. Due to prolonged droughts and extreme climate early May rainfall led to seed germination, but reduced conditions, crop and livestock are increasingly being lost. yields were experienced due to early season losses and Further, land degradation led loss of vegetation, gully erratic rainfall. Combined with the frequent droughts, erosion, loss of topsoil, the invasive species (Prosopis the negative human influences on the environment, juliflora), the demise of frankincense and juniper forests such as cutting trees for charcoal production, has led to and wide-ranging ecosystem degradation. Off-season soil erosion and degradation, loss of agro-biodiversity, Deyr (2016/2017) cereal production was only 357 MT, deforestation and desertification and therefore a decline 93 percent below average, attributed to limited water in both agriculture and livestock outputs. availability for cultivation and farmers who sold their crops at the vegetative stage for fodder, when the price and demand were high. 62 R  eductions in grain and stover yields of important (4) cereal and grain legumes grown in the country due to loss of topsoil, declining soil fertility and reduction in soil water storage Physical Sectors | 61 Effects and Impacts on Household Energy and severity level moves up from “moderate” to “severe.” Fuelwood Resources The continued pressure on biomass results in alarming levels of destruction of Somalia’s biomass resources and Annually, 250,000 tonnes of charcoal is exported from forest cover, which undermines the resilience of natural Somalia to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.63 eco-systems to future droughts. In order to produce this amount, 4.4 million trees are felled annually and processed using inefficient Charcoal production has gone up by 50 percent because killing techniques, in the process not only deforesting of the drought in 2017, as subsistence livelihoods 72,900 ha of land64 but also significantly contributing option to replace employment in farming and livestock to aboveground biodiversity degradation, loss of soil rearing activities. With the issues around access to flora and fauna and acceleration of the process of follow the exact movement pattern of drought affected desertification, estimated at USD 216 million. With communities it is difficult to quantify the damages Somalia’s already highly energy-deficient, the 2017 to natural vegetation to meet basic energy needs drought is a negative multiplier to the energy access in drought conditions. However, recent analysis by challenge, with 850,000 households unable to meet FAO-SWALIM using GIS datasets indicate charcoal daily household energy needs. The pressure on the production during 2016-17 has been extensive across natural vegetation stands increases as the drought Somalia. The southern regions of Jubaland, Lower Table 23: Impact of the 2017 Somalia Drought on Household Energy and Charcoal Production Region Sub-region Individual trees lost Total land deforested Environmental costs as a result of charcoal for charcoal of charcoal production (no.) production (ha) production (USD) North-west Awdal 121,541 6,077,071 Sanaag 273,586 13,679,275 Sool 214,569 10,728,433 Togdheer 265,318 13,265,915 Woqooyi Galbeed 185,702 9,285,109 North-east Bari 372,459 18,622,948 Mudug 372,459 18,622,948 Galgaduud 364,981 18,249,061 Nugaal 213,343 10,667,155 Juba River Area Gedo 372,205 18,610,258 Lower Juba 395,676 19,783,823 Middle Juba 147,473 7,373,670 Shebelle River Area Hiraan 263,492 13,174,579 Lower Shabelle 160,046 8,002,281 Middle Shabelle 75,606 3,780,285 Inter-riverine/Other Bakool 209,943 10,497,125 Benadir 1,164 58,177 Bay 321,779 16,088,926 Total National 4,331,341 79,200 65 216,567,039 63 UNDP, 2013. 64 UNDP. 2013. Breaking the Cycle Of Charcoal Production: Press Briefing. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Breaking%20the%20  cycle%20of%20charcoal%20production%20in%20Somalia.pdf 65  Estimates based on data supplied by UNDP and validated by FAO SWALIM. 62 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM/Muse Mohammed and Middle Shabelle are over-extracted, with data number of short-, medium- and long-term employment showing that one tree is felled every minute for charcoal opportunities, especially for the bulging youthful production in highly energy-inefficient kilns. At this rate, population. Experience elsewhere in Somalia indicates Somalia is likely to be devoid of any natural tree canopy that this work could be effectively undertake through cover within next 50 years. The estimated damages and a community contracting type of approach that losses in this category of impact is estimated at USD 260 ensures ownership and the long-term stewardship million and USD 217 million, requiring USD 30 million in of the environment. There are excellent examples of restitution investments. rangeland regeneration and reforestation implemented in Somaliland and Puntland, which can be expanded and replicated throughout the country. In addition, efforts III. Recovery Needs must be made to develop the renewable energy sector, This report makes a number of recommendations which has the potential to involve women and youth (short-, medium-, and long-term) to remedy the situation and can to provide power sources to sectors that are that is estimated to cost a total of USD 99.85 million over currently underdeveloped because of energy deficits or a period of 5 years. They include capacity building of high costs of energy. government institutions, support in legislation and policy, and direct interventions. Suggested direct In as far as rangelands rehabilitation and reforestation interventions include scaling up evergreen agriculture is concerned, this report recommends that the Ministry (EGA) by integrating with trees-on-farm agroforestry of Natural Resources seeks the support of international systems for better resilience, as well as rehabilitation agencies and NGOs at the level of member-states, who of important vegetative resources badly affected by can thereafter support local authorities with procurement drought by promoting the adoption of sustainable, of materials and implementation of interventions. The low-cost land restoration techniques such as farmer- focus should be on the use of locally available resources, managed natural regeneration (FMNR) and integrated as well as optimizing labor content by adopting soil fertility management systems (ISFM) for drylands). approaches such as community contracting systems of engagement and procurement. Recovery needs include rehabilitation of rangelands and reforestation, which can also provide a large Physical Sectors | 63 Table 24: Summary Needs for Environment, Clean Energy, and Resource Management Summary of Drought Recovery Needs66 Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Emergency capacity building of National X 2,000,000 government forest rangers Emergency re-seeding of selected National X 10,000,000 rangelands with fast-growing grass species and setting up of germplasm mother blocks (seed production zones for indigenous fruit tree species) Improvement of energy efficiency of National X 8,000,000 existing charcoal carbonization and kilning systems Scaling up evergreen agriculture Southern X 17,000,000 (integrating with trees-on-farm Somalia agroforestry) and ISFM and training forest end users on sustainable extractive techniques for NWFPs Development of legislation to National X 1,000,000 support zoning of wildlife parks, migratory corridors Cleaner and renewable energy National X 15,000,000 sources – promotion of energy-efficiency Technical capacity improvement of National X 4,000,000 Somali government - remote sens- ing, GIS, national lab Cleaner and renewable energy National X X 27,000,000 sources –promotion of solar energy technologies and promoting the use of LPG in Somalia Rehabilitation of selected gullies National X 11,000,000 and other severely degraded ecosystems in the North and promoting wide-scale adoption of low-cost integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) for improving soil resources Assisting the Somali government National X X 3,000,000 with the development of a biomass energy policy Develop a power plan National X 853,510 Cross-border electrification National X 1,000,000 and interconnector study Total Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management Needs 99,853,510 66 n assessing the environmental sector, there is a noticeably large difference between the cost of damages and losses (USD 564 million and USD 610 I million, respectively), and the cost of recovery (USD 99.85m, which has a suggested implementation period of up to 5 years). This is largely due to the method of valuation of environmental resources, which takes into account the generation of these assets over years, losses that persist for a long time, and several intangible features, as well as the existing absorptive capacity of governmental systems in Somalia. 64 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Assessment Considerations Soil resources and quality: Soil erosion damages were calculated on the basis of average wind speeds of 30 m/s, between June to August 2017; occurring on Somalia’s light-textured soils that have already been heavily grazed during 2017 drought. Soil losses estimates are based on the degradation of sedimentation crusts on the surface of stripped soils, or the weathering of rocks at their base where they are in contact with the soil (abrasion) and associated losses. An estimation based on loss of USD 3 for every ha of land desiccated was used (USD 3 representing the total amount of soil organic carbon that would have been stored and retained per ha of land, and which would have given rise to better water holding capacity and higher yields for crops and grasses). Yield losses due to loss of soil fertility is based on the loss of 0.5 MT of grain cereals and legumes that would have been produced for every ton of topsoil lost per year. Forests and household fuel-wood resources: Based on the estimate that 12 trees are felled for charcoal production per 1 ha (CARE International in Somalia estimates, 2017), the net damage has been calculated via stumpage value of USD 60 per tree in lost income for NWFPs and environmental services. © IOM/Muse Mohammed Physical Sectors | 65 Social Sectors © IOM/Muse Mohammed Health I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions In terms of health indicators, Somalia ranks among the weakest countries in the world. In 2015, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was the sixth highest,67 and immunization coverage was among the lowest in the world.68 In 2016, the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) was the highest in the world.69 Overall life expectancy at birth is very low compared to the rest of the region (55.44 years compared to 68 years)70, and one out of every seven Somali children dies before seeing their fifth birthday (133 deaths/1,000 live births). The leading causes of infant and child mortality are illnesses such as pneumonia (24 percent), diarrhea (19 percent), and measles (12 percent).71 These health-related issues are compounded by the fact that the total fertility rate is very high and is increasing over time (6.4 in 2009-2010 to 6.7 in 2013-2014).72 The country was unable to achieve any of its health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (Goals 4,5, and 6). 67 732 per 100,000 live births - WHO. 2015. Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2015. 68 Somalia ranks fourth among countries with lowest DPT3 coverage globally of 42 percent - WHO and UNICEF, 2015.  Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC). 69 133 per 1000 live births - UNICEF. 2017. Levels and Trends in Child Mortality. 70 WHO, 2015. Somalia Country Profile 2015. 71 UNICEF. 2016. Humanitarian Needs Overview: October 2016. 72 UNICEF Somalia Statistics, 2010. World Bank Millennium Development Goals Global Data Monitoring. 66 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 25: Snapshot of the Somali Health System Progress towards MDGs in Comparison to Rest of Sub Saharan Africa73 Somalia Sub-Saharan Africa 2009-2010 2013-2014 2009-2010 2013-2014 MDG 1: Poverty and Hunger % under-5 children malnourished (underweight)* 32 32 30 21 % under-5 children chronically 42 42 41 38 malnourished (stunting)* % under-5 children acutely malnourished (wasting)* 13 13 10 9 MDG 4: Child Mortality Under-5 mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 200 146** 144 98 Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 199 91** 86 64 Measles immunization (% children 12-23 months) 24 46 72 72 MDG 5: Maternal Mortality Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births) 1,400 850** 900 500 % births attended by skilled staff 33 33 39 50 MDG 6: HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Prevalence of HIV (% adults aged 15-24) 0.5 0.2 5 1.9 Contraceptive prevalence rate 15 15 23 24 (% of women ages 15-49) Number of Children orphaned by HIV/AIDS - 110 10,200 15,100 % under-5 children sleeping under - 36 insecticide-treated bednets % under-5 children with fever treated 8 8 42 37 with antimalarials Incidence of tuberculosis - 285 343 290 (per 100,000 population per year) Tuberculosis cases detection rate (all new cases) (%) 73 43 46 51 MDG 7: Envrionment Acces to an improved water source 35 30 58 63 (% of population) Access to improved sanitation (% of population) 50 24 54 30 General indicators Population (million) 9 12.3 772 914 Total fertility rate (births per woman aged 15-49) 6.4 6.7 5.2 5.2 Life expectancy at birth (years) 50 55 49.6 56 Sources for 2009-2010: UNICEF Somalia Statistics (2010); World Bank Millennium Development Goals Global Data Monitoring (2010). Sources for 2013-2014: UNICEF-The State of World Children 2014; UN interagency estimates for child and maternal mortality, 2013; Population Estimation Study, Somalia 2014, World Bank Data Monitoring (2013). Indicators for under-nutrition are cumulative for moderate and severe malnutrition. The latest Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Unit data for 2015 * for sever undernutrition indicate underweight: 13.4%, stunting: 12% and wasting: 13.6% **Recent under-5 mortality estimate for Somalia is 137 per 1,000 live births, whereas infant mortality rate is 85 per 1,000 live births. as per UN interagency estimates for 2015. ***Recent maternal mortality estimate for Somalia is 732 per 100,000 live births as per UN interagency estimates for 2015. 73 Final version strategic review of Somali Health Sector Social Sectors | 67 Health service delivery is the mandate of the Ministry Somali people, and humanitarian/health cluster and of Health (MOH), supplemented by the support nutrition programs. Additional strategies have been of donors, civil society organizations, faith-based implemented around: micronutrients, reproductive organizations and private providers. The Essential health, community-based health care, female genital Package of Health Services (EPHS), implemented in mutilation, immunization, health workforce, drugs, 2008, provides the framework for health care delivery behaviour change communication, and mental health. in the country. Health service delivery is structured on a four-tier system comprising hospitals, referral health The conflict-related fragility of Somalia over the past two centers, health centers (also referred to as maternal and and a half decades has resulted in the weakening of the child health centers), and primary health units (at the health sector, its systems and its personnel, with a related community level), all of which provide some elements of focus on emergency response interventions to recurrent EPHS. Other than the EPHS, a number of policies and crises. Less than half the Somali population has access programs have been developed to support the sector: to basic health services, with most facilities located in the Somalia Nutrition Strategy (2011-2013), Somalia’s urban areas. Countrywide, there is less than 1 health zonal Health Sector Strategic Plans (HSSP) (2013- facility per 10,000 people, and many health posts do not 2016), Somali Health Policy (2014), and the Somalia operate fully due to human resource and infrastructure Humanitarian Response Plan (2015). The development constraints.75 A pre-drought survey identified a total of of HSSP2 (2017-2020) is currently underway.74 Major 1074 facilities in existence, of which 106 were found to be health programs include: The Joint Health and Nutrition non-functional and 169 unreachable due to conflict and Programme (JHNP) (2012-16), the Global Alliance for other similar factors. Health care service utilization data Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) (2012-16), the Global in the country remains limited, and most information that Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM), exists is based on MICS and other surveys conducted in the polio eradication program, health consortium for the Somaliland, Puntland and South Central zones. 74 Ministry of Health and WHO. 2016. Somali Service Availability and Readiness Assessment 2016. 75 WHO. 2015. Strategic Review of the Somali health Sector: Challenges and Prioritized Actions. 76  The colors in the graph represent Federal Member States/Administrative Regions (green=Somaliland, dark blue=Puntland, light blue=Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland and South West, and the Benadir Administrative Region). There is no bar for Middle Juba as its health facilities have been classified “non-accessible,” and thus their status is unclear. The regions of Sanag, Sool and Mudug appear more than once because more than one FMS consider them part of their state. 68 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment A serious scarcity of health workers is a major challenge faced by the sector. Approximately 3.3 million people were in need of emergency health services in 2016.78 Somalia’s population growth rate is currently at 2.9 percent per annum as per the World Bank, and if the trend continues, the country is projected to attain a population of 15 million by 2021 and close to 20 million by the year 2030. There are currently an estimated 9,300 registered midwives, nurses and doctors in Somalia against the WHO minimum requirement of 29,900, given the current population, resulting in a gap of 20,500 health professionals. The WHO minimum standard for human resource for health (HRH) is 2.3 health care providers for every 1000 population. © IOM/Muse Mohammed 77 Ibid. 78 UNICEF. 2016. Humanitarian Needs Overview: October 2016. Social Sectors | 69 70 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia Additional challenges facing the Somali health poor quality and safety of services across all levels of system are: (i) persistently high burden of disease; (ii) care; (v) inadequate procurement/supply system and limited institutional capacity and stewardship role of irrational use of essential technologies and medicines; ministries of health; (iii) inadequate, unpredictable and (vi) absence of national surveys and census, weak births unsustainable level of financing, with a high share of out- and deaths registration, limited operational research and of-pocket spending on health; (iii) absence of balanced, disease surveillance; (vii) lack of synergy of humanitarian motivated, well-distributed and well-managed health response to health; and (viii) inadequate action on social workforce with the appropriate skills mix; (iv) limited determinants of health. and unequal access to essential health services, and Social Sectors | 71 afford to, an increased dependency on unprotected and unsafe water sources, leading to a high risk of contracting water borne diseases such as Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/Cholera. Measles and other viral respiratory infections have also increased due to dry conditions and overcrowding in IDP settlements. AWD/cholera, malaria and water-borne diseases are likely to spread further with the expected Gu rains particularly in new, congested settlements for IDPs, due to overcrowding, poor sanitation facilities and insufficient access to safe water. A household (HH) survey conducted as part of the DINA process concluded that IDPs are 2.5 times more likely not to have access to medical health services and 3.4 times more likely than residents to have poor/fair health status.80 They were also 1.6 times more likely than residents to report not having access to gender-based violence health services.81 The advent of the drought, coupled with persistent insecurity, has left most of the health work in the hands of NGO and bilateral donors. With minimal or no financing from central government, this has created challenges in access to basic health care. The delivery II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact of life-saving medicines and medical equipment has The overall health effects of the drought are difficult to been irregular due to insecurity, road inaccessibility, measure, partly because effects tend to accumulate over electricity and fuel shortages, and disruption in the time, and partly, because health impacts can be indirect cold chain. Overcrowding, lack of functioning referral given its link to interceding circumstances such as the systems, limited access to health services, unsafe water loss of livelihoods. However, some impacts are palpable. use and hygiene practice, and underlying malnutrition The drought has worsened food insecurity, which has led pose major challenges for the control and prevention of to large-scale malnutrition directly affecting the health disease outbreaks. of the population. Mass displacement has placed large numbers of the population at risk of malnutrition and Damages and Losses disease. Reduction of most of the pre-existing water sources has created an increased dependency on use Losses in the health sector are many and cross-cutting. of water from private vendors or, for those that cannot Losses in the sector primarily stem from increase in the 79 http://apps.who 80 World Bank and IPSOS. 2017. 2017 Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA). 81 Ibid. 72 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 26: Summary Table of Damage and Losses for Sector (in USD) Zones Cholera Primary-basic Measles Total Losses Health Losses Losses Losses Awdal - 471,591 2,324 473,915 Woqooyi Galbeed - 1,674,404 30,860 1,705,263 Togdheer 86,695 933,759 50,200 1,070,653 Sool 32,622 740,645 14,368 787,635 Sanaag 26,359 2,872,248 - 2,898,607 Bari 40,560 1,107,777 28,661 1,176,998 Nugaal 57,009 1,086,742 8,671 1,152,421 Mudug 62,446 1,785,506 29,785 1,877,737 Galgaduud 94,196 2,818,960 11,869 2,925,026 Hiraan 8,764 1,455,726 29,960 1,494,450 Middle Shabele 57,146 3,840,978 10,845 3,908,969 Benadir 159,785 1,158,434 98,776 1,416,994 Lower Shabelle 128,448 3,299,297 31,459 3,459,204 Bay 342,122 1,711,183 - 2,053,305 Bakool 89,012 686,858 - 775,869 Gedo 128,975 1,598,081 - 1,727,056 Middle Juba - 541,680 - 541,680 Lower Juba 70,498 3,053,807 - 3,124,306 Grand Total 1,384,638 30,837,675 347,776 32,570,088 82 UNOCHA. 2017. Somalia Humanitarian Dashboard Social Sectors | 73 Table 27: Numbers of Various Health Cadres Number of Health Workers by Cadre, Somalia 201683 Somaliland Puntland South Central Total Generalist (non-specialist) 243 191 289 723 medical doctors Specialist medical doctors 48 49 51 148 Non-physician clinicians/ 472 528 2273 3273 paramedical professionals Nursing professionals 763 512 1871 3146 Midwifery professionals 405 279 613 1297 Pharmacists 179 89 290 558 Laboratory technicians 175 95 277 547 (medical and pathology) Community health workers 624 250 1075 1949 Community based 560 132 955 1647 health workers number of new cases of disease, and increase in mobile years of age. Almost half of the population (53,015) of health units leading to increased cost of maintaining the AWD cases are females (50.1 percent). Response and managing these units. Losses in terms of USD are by the Ministry of Health, WHO, UNICEF and health detailed in Table 26. partners have included active case search, effective case management, intensive household chlorination Outbreak of Epidemic-prone Diseases campaign, and the largest Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) campaign in Africa (launched in Somalia). These efforts The outbreak of epidemic-prone diseases such as Acute have contributed to the reduction in cholera cases and Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/cholera and measles, and interruption of transmission of the cholera disease. malaria, some of which are cross-border outbreaks, has Over 1 million people were vaccinated with OCV. Due occurred due to the drought. to the massive humanitarian interventions, the number AWD/Cholera: Somalia has experienced a large-scale of AWD/Cholera cases has declined from a peak, at outbreak of cholera since the beginning of 2017. A total the beginning of June (week 22), of 5,306 cases to the of 77,783 cases of AWD and 1,159 deaths (CFR 1.49 latest reported and lowest number of 93 cases in the percent) were reported in different parts of Somalia end of September 2017. Similarly, the AWD Case Fatality from January to September 2017.84 Of these cases, Rate (CFR) has decreased from its peak of 4.7 percent 58.8 percent have occurred in children below five in February 2017 to zero percent since August 2017. 83  he current number of health workers will not be revised as this will be considered under the broader medium- to long- term developmental T objectives. However, cost of increased need for health workers is being taken care of in the costing of increased activities as part of service delivery. 84 UNOCHA. 2017. Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Impacts of Drought: November 2017.  74 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment However, the risk of increasing AWD/Cholera remains (even after adjusting for NDVI and economic impact due to limited access to safe water and poor sanitation of the drought). These analyses, therefore, suggest – conditions which continue to exist in many parts of that operational capacity and equipment among the Somalia, especially in IDP camps. HCFs included in the survey stayed within pre-drought baseline levels (this indicates that though operational Measles: Somalia is experiencing the worst outbreak of capacity and equipment were already low at the measles in four years. This is due to drought and the real baseline, they had not deteriorated further during the threat of famine, accompanied by low vaccination rates. drought period).86 Measles cases were reported from all regions in 2017, with rates being much higher in southern and central regions Under representation in levels of HRH continues to be a of Somalia due to the inaccessibility of 18 districts for major challenge. The high health worker to patient ratio immunization campaigns stemming from security fears. and low number of health facilities creates challenges Measles continues to be the leading cause of morbidity to access of care, especially in a situation of a drought and mortality amongst IDPs, with ongoing transmission and ongoing conflict. Increasing the number of trained of measles despite the targeted measles vaccination professionals will need to be accompanied by an increase campaigns conducted in April 2017. Between January in the available health care facilities to adequately and September 2017, over 18,000 suspected measles cater for other health needs that are equally projected cases were reported across Somalia.85 To respond to increase. For the drought needs assessment and to this outbreak, the FMOH, WHO, and UNICEF, in immediate needs for human resources, it is justifiable to collaboration of health cluster partners, are planning to consider this area as part of developmental need for the conduct a nationwide Measles Immunization Campaign medium to long term. targeting 4.2 million children between the age of 6 months to 10 years by the last quarter of 2017. This will In the absence of the required policy and programming be followed by developing and supporting a 5-year measures being undertaken: the entire public sector measles control and elimination strategy, with a focus on system would become a shell, with a lack of equity in the strengthening measles case-based surveillance systems. services being delivered; NGOs and the private sector would continue to provide the bulk of services to most of A comprehensive analysis of the pre-/post-drought Somalia; human resources for health and health facilities change in facility operational capacity, as part of the will remain a much-neglected area, further impacting the DINA exercise, did not find any statistically change development of health systems; and the humanitarian 85 Ibid. 86 World Bank and IPSOS. 2017. 2017 Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA).  Social Sectors | 75 and emergency approach will remain the main modus putting in place a strategic human resource plan that of service delivery with increased fragmentation, and will increase the current level of HRH; implementing a without sufficient alignment with central and state comprehensive health services delivery plan by increasing policies and frameworks. the number of functional health facilities; increasing the number of mobile clinics and specific community interventions such as immunization campaigns and III. Cross-cutting Considerations AWD/cholera awareness campaigns. Furthermore, Gender: Gender considerations remain critical, with most cross-cutting issues such as water and sanitation, food of the affected being children and women, especially rehabilitation and social protection should be an integral within the context of the accompanying conflict. Special part of the health sector recovery strategy. mechanisms for women and children to access care and nutritional support should be established. These will Underlying assumptions behind the recovery strategy enable equity in the distribution of available inputs to are that: health activities are fungible; community the communities. interventions can be integrated; community health workers can cut across all three interventions; increase Displacement and Migration: Even through displacement in IDP and migration will require more facilities, and and migration affects all, the most vulnerable remain more mobile clinics; increase in cholera and measles women. Coupled with the prevailing conflict the will require more new treatment centers and increased consequences on women and children remain dire. number of immunization campaigns, and increased number of people seeking care will require increased Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: The access to facilities and medicine availability, including private sector remains a powerful partner for providing availability of diagnostic kits. health services in Somalia. Indeed, without the private sector, the overall impact on health would have been Implementation of the strategy will follow the health unimaginable. Both local and international NGOs are sector strategy and policy framework. It will be playing a critical role in the implementation of health implemented through Government-led initiatives, with services in Somalia. Any financing that is allocated for support from a wide range of stakeholders. Both local health should consider the availability of private sector and international NGO’s will play a significant role in partners in delivering health services. This is especially the implementation of the recovery and resilience plan. in view of the mostly-destroyed and non-functional The role of other line ministries in implementing health health infrastructure, and a chronic shortage of human service delivery remains critical. resources for health (HRH). Priority Groups Disaster Risk Reduction, Drought Resilience and Contingency Financing: This requires a long-term vision Pregnant and lactating women (PLW), children under within a broader development agenda. The matter of the age of five and IDPs should be considered priority human resources for health, health infrastructure and groups. The old and the vulnerable should also be referral systems requires a more strategic focus towards given priority due to their increased risk to disease. health development in Somalia. Prioritization in terms of needs include service delivery on reproductive health, child health, adolescent health and elderly health. IV. Recovery Needs Recovery Strategy Addressing the impact of the drought in IDP settlements is a critical need. These include looking at addressing As the drought context in Somalia is compounded the housing problem; increasing access to water and by conflict, in addition to drought- specific resilience sanitation services; increasing the availability of nutrition measures, conflict resilience measures and rehabilitating centers; increasing the availability of treatment points those institutions destroyed by conflict will need to be for both primary and basic secondary treatments; and undertaken. These include: ensuring that the current increasing resilience through better social protection, health policy strategic plan is implemented effectively, and gender and vulnerable population targeting. 76 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 28: Summary Needs for Health Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Engaging the public in National X X X 4,118,187 promotion of health, hygiene and safe drinking water, sanitation, environmental hygiene, food safe- ty and safe waste disposal Promoting food borne diseases National X X X 4,118,187 laboratory-based surveillance by developing food safety guidelines and interventions Introducing standardized rapid National X X X 2,470,912 diagnostic technologies for prevalent communicable diseases Active disease surveillance National X X X 4,118,187 and early warning system Prepositioning medical supplies National X X X 4,118,187 and kits to undertake coordinated rapid response Establishing an effective health National X X X 2,470,912 information system that provides accurate and timely health data for evidence planning and implementation, supported by monitoring and evaluation Increasing cholera treatment National X X X 8,236,375 Centre’s in all regions Promoting participation in National X X X 4,118,187 improving public health at community level Ensure availability of essential National X X X 22,007,180 medicines, vaccines and commodities Establishing emergency National X X X 4,118,187 response services Ensuring immunization of all National X X X 8,236,375 children and pregnant women against the major child killer diseases sanctioned by the health authorities including campaigns Deploying more health care work- National X X X 5,765,462 ers that are competent on tasks and treat patients with dignity, respect and compassion Supporting fixed and National X X X 8,236,375 mobile clinics Total Health Needs 82,132,713 Social Sectors | 77 Nutrition The causes of acute malnutrition include factors already documented, as well as lesser-known underlying drivers in need of urgent attention. The 2015 Nutrition Causality I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions Analysis (NCA) study in Somalia between March and Somalia is one of the top ten countries with the highest November 2015, indicates that the causes of acute prevalence of malnutrition in the world, and the third malnutrition are multiple and complex.90 The study highest in the eastern and southern Africa region. 17.42 confirmed that, in addition to insecurity, climatic and percent Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) is prevalent seasonal factors and notable poverty amongst some amongst children under five years, with 3.2 percent being communities, dominant child care practices and select severely malnourished.87 This is due to a combination of socio-cultural beliefs remain core drivers of malnutrition severe food insecurity, high acute malnutrition and high in southern and central Somalia, due to their negative burden of disease. The projected number of children impact on the lives, livelihoods and nutrition status of the who are, or who will be acutely malnourished, has communities studied. In all the study communities weak increased since the beginning of the year to 1.2 million, infant and child feeding and care practices, combined including over 232,000 (including IDPs) who have or will with poor hygiene, the lack of basic health and WASH suffer life-threatening severe acute malnutrition (SAM) facilities and women’s excessive workloads were seen to over the period from September 2017 to September have a major impact. 2018.88 Severely malnourished children are nine times more likely to die of killer diseases such as acute watery Nutrition Trends by Zones diarrhea (AWD)/cholera and measles.89 Predictably, the Variations are observed for all the forms of malnutrition drought impact combined with the ongoing conflict is a between zones in Somalia, with generally higher GAM manifestation of the rising malnutrition outcomes. rates observed in the South Central Zone (SCZ) than in Contributing to the high levels of child acute malnutrition the Northeast Zone (NEZ) and in the Northwest Zone is the continuing complex emergency, resulting from (NWZ). There are also significant differences between continued conflicts, displacements, drought and disease. NEZ and NWZ, with wasting being significantly higher IDP populations face considerable challenges where in the NEZ. High levels of acute malnutrition in SCZ, high pervasiveness of women-headed households are (above emergency thresholds) are attributed to a high chronically combating high levels of acute malnutrition. morbidity burden and the complex socio-political Many mothers are forced to travel away from their homes situation and frequent conflicts, resulting in low access to in search of casual labor, while children and infants are services, especially health, as well as causing population left without proper care. They are also susceptible to displacements and loss of livelihoods. Lower rates of frequent evictions by land grabbers, leaving families malnutrition reported in NWZ are attributed to relative with poor housing structures and limited sanitation/ stability, a key basic factor as identified in the causal hygiene facilities. framework of malnutrition. However, critical nutrition situation was reported in 2007, associated with a series of rain failures along the northern mountainous Golis/ Guban livelihood zone mountains.91 87 U  NICEF. 2014. State of the World’s Children Report 2014. 88 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15): September 2017.  89  UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #5): April 2017. 90 WFP and SNS Consortium. 2015. 2015 Nutrition Causality Analysis Study: South and Central Somalia.  91 FSNAU and FEWS NET. 2017. Post Gu Technical Release: August 2017. 78 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Nutrition Trends by Livelihoods insecurity, limited health service availability, such as poor EPI coverage, and increased morbidity, poor health There are no significant variations by livelihood systems seeking behavior, and difficulty of accessing clean for all three forms of malnutrition. The three main water supply are driving factors for the current situation. livelihood systems, agropastoralists, pure crop farmers Stunting or chronic malnutrition is a considerable (Riverine) and pastoralists recorded respective median driver given the fact that there is significant association GAM rates of 17.6, 15.9 and 14.9 percent. The levels between GAM and stunting (r=0.38; p<0.05) and SAM of acute malnutrition in the different livelihoods are and stunting (r-0.51, p<0.01) as detected in the latest also not significantly different from the median rates survey by FSNAU. This shows that acute malnutrition is recorded in assessments conducted by administrative often superimposed with chronic malnutrition, which can boundaries in mixed livelihoods (16.5 percent) and from further aggravate malnutrition levels in the community.93 the national median rate of (16.2 percent). This analysis Among others drivers of high malnutrition in Somalia are further showed that IDPs reported a median acute limited access to health services, immunization, WASH malnutrition rate in excess of the critical threshold (15 and disrupted trade that has led to limited access to percent), estimated at 16.5 percent.92 goods and services. Current Statistics and Burden Both GAM and SAM appear correlated with period of famine and severe drought (Figure 21). For instance, the Seasonal surveys conducted by FSNAU since 2007 to period between Gu 2011 and Dyer 2011 represented the 2016 clearly indicates that Acute Malnutrition trends in most severe famine in Somalia which was followed by Somalia remain stable at emergency level of GAM/SAM period of relative good rains which show decline of GAM threshold with no significant variations in the malnutrition and SAM cases. Again, the onset of Gu 2016 season rates over the years (p>0.05). The significant deterioration shows a rapid deterioration the nutrition situation up of malnutrition situation seen among the IDPs can be from 12.2 percent in 2015 to the current GAM rate of attributed to high morbidity (disease incidence e.g. 17.4 percent which is close to the 18 percent GAM level AWD, measles), low humanitarian support, and poor observed during the 2011 famine. child feeding and caring practices. Similarly, partners on the ground generally were of the opinion that food 92  utrition cluster burden estimate (September 2017). N 93 FSNAU-FEWS NET 2017 Post Gu, Nutrition Situation (August 2017).  Social Sectors | 79 Malnutrition projection over time is set to increase over the medium and longer term (as shown for modeled graph below). The period 2016-2017 may show an increase from 1.14 percent - 1.17 percent for SAM and 1.58 percent-1.60 percent for GAM. 94  dapted from FSNAU/FEWSNET data summaries A 95 DINA team estimates  80 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact feeding programs (SFPs) for the management of moderately malnourished under-fives and pregnant and The current global acutely malnourished population lactating women (PLW) are being implemented. Activities quantified from both IDP settlements and Rural for the prevention of moderate acute malnutrition will Livelihood zones have increased by 20 percent and 10 include the provision of fortified supplementary food to percent, respectively.96 At the beginning of the year, all children under-two and PLW. In addition, children aged the GAM rate was 14.9 percent, while the SAM rate 6-36 months will be targeted with blanket distribution was 3.07 percent, with 363,000 acutely malnourished of ready-to-use food (Plumpy Doz), every two months, and 71,000 SAM prevalence. Projected figures were in areas showing the highest malnutrition rates. Food 971,503 acutely malnourished and 188,000 SAM cases. assistance will be provided to vulnerable groups through Currently, the GAM rate has risen to 17.4 percent, while institutional feeding and school feeding. General food SAM rate increased to 3.20 percent with 388,070 acutely ration will also be provided consisting of cereals, CSB, malnourished children and 87,250 SAM (point prevalence sugar, fortified oil and iodized salt when available, to the estimate). Projected figures (burden) would be 1,260,568 rural population affected by the drought, urban poor and acutely malnourished and 231,829 SAM cases. Hence IDPs. Good nutrition booster health interventions will be between September 2017 and August 2018, there delivered through health campaigns to include vitamin is estimated to be 1.2 million acutely malnourished A distribution, deworming and nutritional screening children, of which 231,829 are severely malnourished. during child health days. The prevalence of GAM and SAM is higher in boys (6- 23 months and 24-59 months) compared to girls in all livelihoods. The difference was statistically significant in Drought Effects all areas surveyed.97 FSNAU Post-Gu 2017 preliminary The nutrition situation continues to deteriorate partly results reveal that the current poor nutritional situation due to food insecurity, morbidity and lack of milk and identified in most of the IDPs settlements and Rural high disease burden in many households. According to Livelihood zones will further deteriorate or remain in Somalia Post Gu Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition serious or critical situation. Assessment (5th September 2017), Lower Shebelle region The median prevalence of global acute malnutrition had a higher malnutrition prevalence with approximately (WHZ < -2 SD) has deteriorated from Serious in Gu 31,200 children under the age of five being acutely 2016 (14.5 percent) to Gu 2017 Critical (17.4 percent). malnourished in June and July 2017. This includes 24, Regionally, Northwest and Northeast indicate 200 moderately malnourished (MAM) and 7,000 severely deterioration to Serious (13.4 percent) and Critical levels malnourished (SAM) children. The FSNAU report further (18.6 percent) of acute malnutrition respectively, while shows that there were also significant increases in global south central indicate sustained Critical at 16.6 percent. acute malnutrition (GAM) cases from deyr 2016/17 and Gu 2017 assessment also shows 48 cases of bilateral gu2016. Other notable significant increases were in SAM edema in 19 of the 31 livelihoods surveyed. Prevalence cases in the same period. Bakool Region was slightly of malnutrition among the urban population tended to lower with 12,800 children being malnourished (9,100 be lower, reflecting better access to a diversified diet children moderately and 3,700 severely). ‘Critical’ levels and to public services including health.98 of GAM are present in most areas, driven by lower than normal food access, increased waterborne illness during Currently, nutrition response programming is mainly the rainy season, and poor access to health services. High undertaken by the UN, international and national NGOs. disease incidence is contributing to acute malnutrition. Outpatient therapeutic feeding programs (OTPs) for Between January and September 2017 over 70,000 cases the management of severe acute malnutrition are being of cholera and 16,000 cases of measles were reported.99 implemented across Somalia. Targeted supplementary 96 As per the recent FSNAU Post-Gu 2017 food security and nutrition assessment findings. 97 FSNAU and FEWS NET. 2017. Post Gu Technical Release: August 2017. 98 Seasonal trends of Malnutrition levels by Zone in Somalia (Source FSNAU, 2011-2017) 99 UNOCHA. 2017. Somalia: Drought Response Situation Report No. 16: September 2017. Social Sectors | 81 Critical issues with access to food continue in the country. In a survey conducted for this DINA, with 71 percent of respondents admitting that they didn’t have enough food within the month subsequent to the survey being conducted, households have been forced to resort to limiting portions of consumed meals, shifting to less preferred foods, restricting adult consumption to leave more food for children, and relying on donations.100 See graph below: IDP settlements are particularly vulnerable to With continued drought and drought projection on malnutrition. SMART surveys conducted by FSNAU in nutrition, long-term projection remains low. The impact June indicate ‘Critical’ levels of acute malnutrition in of the drought on nutritional status will continue for a nine out of 12 IDP settlements.102 Ipsos survey results period of time, even after the ending of the drought, have found that IDPs were four times more likely than until food security improves and normal livelihood residents to report not having enough food to eat as one mechanisms are re-established. This effect will have a of their top three most urgent relief needs. IDPs were negative impact on development goals of the country. also four times more likely than residents to report that their household experienced a decreased number of Major challenges remain such as the availability of meals per day as a result of the drought. Furthermore, adequate food, given the continuing drought, and food status is 1.4 times more likely to have gotten constraints on the ability of communities to be resilient. worse than stayed the same due to the current drought Access to quality health care and WASH services for the for either IDPs or households with a child under the most vulnerable remains a major challenge. Although age of 5.103 care and treatment for children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is life-saving, if nothing is done to address underlying causes, these children remain at Drought Impact risk. Hence the need for external assistance to mitigate Good nutrition is an investment in the future of children the impact of the drought will be more prolonged in Somalia. Nutritious diets fuel children’s growth, drive until communities are able support themselves as the brain development, strengthen learning potential, drought recedes. Immediate and medium term needs in enhance productivity in adulthood and pave the way this regard remain high. Both the central Government to a more sustainable and prosperous Somalia. Poor and UN and other partners need to prioritize nutrition nutrition has great impact on child development and as one of the drivers of resilience building, as it school attendance and performance. Poor nutrition affects the next generation in terms of productivity and also affects productivity, which leads to loss of income, national development. perpetuating the cycle of poverty. Hence a strong, long- term mitigation plan to avert the negative consequences of poor nutrition on the economy is required. 100 W  orld Bank and Ipsos. 2017. 2017 Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA). 101 Ipsos Survey 2017 102 FSNAU. 2017. Food Security and Nutrition Quarterly Brief: July 2017.  103 Ibid. 82 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment If effective policy and programing measures are not taken, the impact of the drought on the health of the people especially children under five and PLW will be dire. Malnutrition levels will continue to rise and the level of SAM will increase. This will cause severe stress on resources to manage and mitigate cases, and overwhelm facilities in charge of acute care. More resources will be required to set up new treatment and rehabilitation facilities, as well as a need for more mobile clinics to reach IDP communities. Damages and Losses Immediate losses were incurred in treating SAM and moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) children and pregnant and lactating women (PLW), mass screenings and operational costs for the delivery of a comprehensive package of preventive, curative and promotional services in static and mobile outreach clinics in hard-to-reach areas. Table 29: Nutrition Sector Losses SAM Losses GAM Losses Total Losses Awdal 14,188 81,214 95,403 Woqooyi Galbeed 29,540 121,234 150,773 Togdheer 44,918 86,520 131,439 Sool 19,006 101,948 120,954 Sanaag 27,040 112,048 139,088 Bari 25,686 189,970 215,656 Nugaal 26,373 149,566 175,940 Mudug 52,700 264,973 317,673 Galgaduud 32,867 150,315 183,183 Hiraan 28,230 107,984 136,215 Middle shabele 32,360 88,736 121,097 Benadir 159,260 397,853 557,113 Lower Shabelle 65,830 203,317 269,147 Bay 35,564 76,116 111,680 Bakool 26,883 102,992 129,876 Gedo 37,274 113,543 150,818 Middle Juba 446 613 1,059 Lower Juba 29,202 96,273 125,475 Grand Total 687,371 2,445,216 3,132,587 Social Sectors | 83 © IOM/Muse Mohammed III. Cross-cutting Considerations IV. Recovery Needs Gender: Nutrition challenges during drought affect The recovery strategy for the sector will include: mostly children, PLW and older people. The higher strengthening prevention and life-saving treatments number of cases seen in these groups reflects the for management of acute malnutrition in children U5 dire nutrition situation in the country, and they require and PLW to be delivered at scale. Critical activities specific inclusion in all mitigation measures. Given include regular provision and implementation of other the high displacement rate and the higher rate of interventions such as Vitamin A supplementation and malnutrition in IDP camps, more efforts should be made deworming; nutrition surveillance; monitoring and towards increasing nutrition support in these areas. The evaluation; and capacity building and procurement of drought has not spared the local communities and, materials required for child and maternal health and clearly, the current level of treatment is not adequate to nutrition promotion. In view of the high number of IDP meet current needs. and displaced communities as a result of both drought and conflict, increased provision of nutrition treatment Social Protection & Safety Nets: This will remain a through static and mobile outreach services is essential. critical area for recovery. Special social protection and Target groups continue to be the population of children safety net measures, will be required to mitigate the under five, PLW, the infirm and elderly, and people problem. Relapse into SAM, following treatment, should living with HIV/AIDS. In addition, those living in IDP be prevented as much as possible and such measures settlements, where there is evidence of increased risk of would help achieve this by increasing the likelihood of severe disease, will be targeted. access to food and water. Resilience measures should focus on the following: Displacement and Migration: This is a general trend associated with drought. The search for water and Rehabilitation of nutritional service delivery and • pasture for animals increases the risk of malnutrition. This, provision of acute food and nutritional supplements coupled with ongoing conflict, increases the likelihood to mitigate the current impacts. of food insufficiency among migrant communities. Due to high prevalence of GAM, which coupled • These communities will benefit from increased mobile with increased disease burden has led to an clinics and nutrition support programs. increased progression to SAM, continued community surveillance and training for Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: The identification of those affected is required. role of the private sector is crucial in the support of nutrition rehabilitation and recovery programs, given Due to increased internal migration and high • their direct interaction with communities - they have a population volumes in IDP camps, the use of better understanding of local issues and their input in mobile clinics and mobile treatment vans needs to the design of such programs is vital. In addition, working be prioritized. together with government and other UN agencies, Both FGS and the UN and other partners need • they would form a good vehicle to deliver support and to prioritize nutrition as one of the drivers of rehabilitation programs to affected communities. resilience-building, as it affects the next generation in terms of productivity and national development. 84 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 30: Summary Needs for Nutrition Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Surveillance and M&E operations National X X X 10,413,189 Mobile clinic and nutrition National X X X 20,826,378 rehabilitation vans Vitamin A supplementation National X X X 1,561,978 People living with HIV and AIDS National X X X 2,082,638 Deworming National X X X 1,561,978 Capacity building National X X X 15,619,783 Procurement of material National X X X 20,826,378 and rehabilitation Health promotion and National X X X 10,413,189 community mobilization Implementation and National X X X 20,826,378 operational support Total Nutrition Needs 104,131,888 Education I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions Since the establishment of the Somali Federal Republic in 2012, the FGS has prioritized the redevelopment and strengthening of the education system. However, the current drought has had a significant negative impact on children’s education and school enrollment. Table 31: Estimated Frequency and Impacts of Emergencies in Somaliland 2012-2016 Year Disaster Region District Frequency Total Schools Schools Children type deaths closed occupied out of school 2012 Drought Sanaga Elafweyn 1 4 21 3 830 2014 Drought Somaliland Zeila, Lughaya, 1 0 30 0 2,400 Gabiley, Borama, Dilla, Hawd 2015 Drought Toghder Gabo gabo, 1 0 4 4 250 Ilkacadees, Xayira and El dher 2016 Drought Gabiley Allaybaday, Agabar, 2 100 34 0 2,500 Gabiley 2016 Drought Awdal and Qunuejed 2 5 72 5 6,000 Marodijeh Total 7 109 161 12 11.980 Source: Somaliland Education Sector Analysis 2012-2016. Social Sectors | 85 Table 32 below which depicts the drought displacements, top destinations and departure regions, shows that the higher populations have departed from Lower Shabelle, Bay, Mudug, Sool and Bakool, while arrivals have been dense in Benadir, Bay, Lower Shabelle and Mudug. This data points to a possible pattern of intra-regional displacement and its possible impact on the education systems. The drought has not spared some of the best performing regions in terms of enrollment. According to the Somalia Education Baseline Survey, the largest concentration of primary school learners was found in the Gedo region,104 which accounted for 17.9 percent of located primary school learners. Of those, 45.2 percent, or 18,644, were girls. Gedo region has seen departures and arrivals estimated at over 44,000 people. Table 32: Somalia Drought Displacements, Top Destinations and Top Departure Regions Displacements Top Top Departure Regions Estimated Estimated Estimated Over Time Destinations 5-18 year enrolled children not old children children enrolled (Priority 1) Jan-16 21,013 Benadir 268,574 Lower 387,082 107,430 32,229 75,201 Shabelle Feb-16 7,730 Bay 240,164 Bay 248,328 96,066 28,820 67,246 Mar-16 11,603 Lower 174,519 Mudug 121,161 69,808 20,942 48,866 Shabelle Apr-16 20,568 Mudug 115,842 Sool 100,601 46,337 13,901 32,436 May-16 20,081 Sool 76,887 Bakool 94,335 30,755 9,226 21,529 Jun-16 9,827 Togdheer 55,261 Togdheer 57,293 22,104 6,631 15,473 Jul-16 14,119 Sanaag 51,046 Galgaduud 48,315 20,418 6,126 14,292 Aug-16 4,139 Gedo 44,502 Middle 44,774 17,801 5,340 12,461 Shabelle Sep-16 5,882 Bakool 43,482 Sanaag 44,597 17,393 5,218 12,175 Oct-16 85,573 Galgaduud 40,453 Gedo 41,357 16,181 4,854 11,327 Nov-16 82,199 Middle 39,223 Hiraan 26,876 15,689 4,707 10,982 Shabelle Dec-16 22,671 Woqooyi 31,884 Bari 17,194 12,754 3,826 8,928 Galbeed Jan 62,649 Hiraan 28,684 Benadir 12,884 11,474 3,442 8,032 Feb 109,583 Bari 18,262 Lower Juba 10,447 7,305 2,191 5,114 Mar 296,405 Middle 18,232 Middle Juba 8,827 7,293 2,188 5,105 Juba Apr 156,543 Lower 15,540 Nugaal 7,804 6,216 1,865 4,351 Juba May 88,154 Awdal 12,325 Woqooyi 4,578 4,930 1,479 3,451 Galbeed Jun 72,525 Nugaal 5,365 Awdal 3,792 2,146 644 1,502 Total 1,091,264 1,280,245 1,280,245 512,100 153,629 358,471 Displaced People 104 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Education Baseline Survey 2017.  86 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNICEF Somalia/Susannah Price 87 As shown in Table 33, as of May 2017 the highest numbers and proportions of children ‘forced out’ of education due to drought, potential famine and associated economic pressures on families are located in regions and states that have been most affected by conflict. In these cases, the proportions of children forced out of school reached over 25 percent and in the most extreme case was above 42 percent (Sool). Of the nearly 80,000 children forced out of education by May 2017 most were found in south central Somalia, with over 38,000 children reported being out-of-school, while in Somaliland and Puntland the numbers reached slightly over 12,000 and 16,000 respectively, with more than 12,000 children out-of-school in the contested regions between Puntland and Somaliland. 105 Table 33: Key Baseline Data for the Sector State Region Number of Acutely Food Insecure People Stressed (IPC2) Crisis (IPC 3) Emergency (IPC 4) Jubaland L. Juba 123,000 25% 86,000 18% 12,000 10% M. Juba 88,000 24% 83,000 23% 0 0% Gedo 161,000 32% 88,000 17% 1,000 1% Total 372,000 27% 257,000 19% 13,000 3% Southwest Bakool 66,000 18% 113,000 31% 58,000 88% Bay 199,000 25% 172,000 22% 160,000 80% L. Shabelle 352,000 29% 200,000 17% 10,000 3% Total 617,000 26% 485,000 21% 228,000 37% Hirshabelle M. Shabelle 135,000 26% 70,000 14% 0 0% Hiraan 62,000 12% 207,000 40% 23,000 37% Total 197,000 19% 277,000 27% 23,000 12% Galmadug Mudug 114,000 16% 283,000 39% 3,000 3% Galgaduud 201,000 35% 130,000 23% 8,000 4% Total 315,000 24% 413,000 32% 11,000 3% Benadir Benadir 558,000 34% 298,000 18% 14,000 3% CS Total 2,059,000 27% 1,730,000 22% 289,000 14% Puntland Bari 167,000 23% 169,000 23% 19,000 11% Nugaal 87,000 22% 90,000 23% 26,000 30% N. Mudug n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Total 254,000 23% 259,000 23% 45,000 18% Somaliland Awdal 136,000 20% 80,000 12% 12,000 9% W. Galbeed 438,000 35% 115,000 9% 8,000 2% Togdheer 188,000 26% 140,000 19% 6,000 3% Total 762,000 29% 335,000 13% 26,000 3% Contested Sanaag** 163,000 30% 84,000 15% 54,000 33% Regions Sool** 94,000 29% 65,000 20% 36,000 38% Total 257,000 29% 149,000 17% 90,000 35% Total 3,332,000 27% 2,473,000 20% 450,000 14% 105 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Education Baseline Survey 2017.  88 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment # Primary schools Children enrolled #s forced out-of-school % forced out-of-school M F Tot M F Tot M F Tot 116 13,152 8,925 22,077 1,250 575 1,825 9.5% 6.4% 8.3% 56 10,356 8,071 18,427 n/a n/a n/a 221 33,982 23,651 57,633 8,739 4,246 12,985 25.7% 18.0% 22.5% 393 57,490 40,647 98,137 9,989 4,821 14,810 17.4% 11.9% 15.1% 125 11,034 9,630 20,664 1,961 1,534 3,495 17.8% 15.9% 16.9% 90 16,792 9,700 26,492 3,903 2,602 6,505 23.2% 26.8% 24.6% 135 20,827 14,361 35,188 199 147 346 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 350 48,653 33,691 82,344 6,063 4,283 10,346 12.5% 12.7% 12.6% 126 8,778 6,769 15,547 52 126 178 0.6% 1.9% 1.1% 199 24,679 15,345 40,024 4,136 3,061 7,197 16.8% 19.9% 18.0% 325 33,457 22,114 55,571 4,188 3,187 7,375 12.5% 14.4% 13.3% 84 29,402 26,252 55,654 1,240 932 2,172 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 103 13,639 11,233 24,872 224 205 429 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 187 43,041 37,485 80,526 1,464 1,137 2,601 3.4% 3.0% 3.2% n/a 81,828 60,911 142,739 1,841 1,228 3,069 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1,255 264,469 194,848 459,317 23,545 14,656 38,201 8.9% 7.5% 8.3% 262 18936 14894 33,830 5,700 4,479 10,179 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 99 14394 11539 25,933 1,978 1,555 3,533 13.7% 13.5% 13.6% 84 13,104 10861 23,965 1,589 1,023 2,612 12.1% 9.4% 10.9% 445 84,949 66,329 151,278 9,267 7,057 16,324 10.9% 10.6% 10.8% 138 14,922 12,995 27,917 317 160 477 2.1% 1.2% 1.7% 452 70,699 47,098 117,797 3,504 1,819 5,323 5.0% 3.9% 4.5% 200 24,068 16,332 40,400 4,837 1,866 6,703 20.1% 11.4% 16.6% 790 213,960 169,043 383,003 8,658 3,845 12,503 4.0% 2.3% 3.3% 208 14,461 12,961 27,422 1,673 900 2,573 11.6% 6.9% 9.4% 136 13,016 11,464 24,480 5,518 4,688 10,206 42.4% 40.9% 41.7% 344 27,477 24,425 51,902 7,191 5,588 12,779 26.2% 22.9% 24.6% 2,834 563,378 430,220 993,598 48,661 31,146 79,807 8.6% 7.2% 8.0% Social Sectors | 89 Overall Puntland was most affected with over 10.2 of ‘drop-outs’ as data provided has typically been for percent of children out-of-school, followed by south schools that have closed and in many instances did central with 8.3 percent and then Somaliland with only not capture data for children who have dropped out 3.3 percent of children forced out of school. For Somalia of schools that remained open. Moreover, emergency as a whole, by May 2017, the total proportion of children forecasts for the remainder of 2017 expect worsening forced out of schools reached an estimated 8 percent humanitarian conditions and deepening impacts on of all children enrolled in education. It is, of course, communities – including education (meaning that worth cautioning that figures reported by government number of children being forced out of education would and cluster partners could understate the actual figures likely increase for the remainder of the year). II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact enrolled per each top destination region in contrast to the existing children of school going age (5-18 years). Drought Effects In terms of infrastructure, displacement has resulted With data prepared by the FSNAU and FEWS NET, in schools being abandoned, and in regions that host schools and the numbers of children enrolled in relation displaced populations the resulting increase in learners to drought-affected areas and food security levels, has led to overpopulated schools where IDP’s have show how the drought has affected children’s rights to settled in their communities. Education partners have education and how drought impacts seem higher in innovatively utilized ‘Temporary Learning Spaces’ (TLS) regions of south central Somalia that have been more as a means to continue the provision of education severely impacted by conflict and potentially lower services. These TLS’s allow for quick development of levels of social cohesion. As shown in Table 33, from learning spaces using low costs materials and fill the void the internal displacements movement tracking, the where schools don’t exist or additional learning spaces table shows an estimated number of children that are are required within existing schools. 90 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Education was affected by the drought in a number of ways including children missing out on schooling days. In an already compromised learning system, it is inevitable that this will have harmful effects in their overall learning. The drought also affected the teaching profession. As shown in Figure 25 below, in 2016, the sector barely managed to reach planned targets for “Teachers receiving incentives”, and number of “beneficiaries/ learners receiving school supplies”. While government engages in curriculum strengthening, provision of school consumables and, to a large extent, teachers’ incentives especially during crisis like the prolonged drought have remained the mainstay of aid support towards the education sector. During the drought, additional stress was placed on the limited learning materials and emergency teachers had to be supported with incentives if emergency education was to continue. 106 Somalia Education Cluster Report 2016.  Social Sectors | 91 Many schools in Somalia integrate the establishment likely to die of fatal diseases such as AWD/cholera of a local ‘Community Education Committee’ (CEC). and measles.111 The high numbers of malnutrition Typically, in the pre-drought season, most schools among children under five years indicates a significant had established Community Education Committees likelihood of malnutrition among children of school (CEC’s) that govern running of schools. Displacements going age as well. have disrupted the local school governance structures comprised of teachers and parent representatives. Damage and Losses In the absence of a strong education system, CEC’s are the basic governance structures that drive It should be noted that the education sector did not community education. experience any direct damages and losses. However as a consequence of the prolonged drought disaster Displaced families together with their schools going impact, the sector experienced the following effects: children have mostly settled on the outskirts of peri- disruption of school calendar in some regions of the urban areas to be within reach of social services including country; scarcity of adequate safe water in schools; humanitarian aid. Large groups of families, often with scarcity of nutritious food for children and their families; their own social protective structures now find themselves increased enrollments in displacement destinations with no protection and have to rely on host communities resulting in stretched existing school resources i.e. for their protection. Children especially girls in IDP education materials, furniture, equipment; conversely settings have higher risks of gender-based violence enrollment decline in some schools; and unaffordability and will require protective mechanisms to enable them of school fees. to safely access education services and support family coping mechanisms. A number of cluster assessments On average, the prolonged drought affected an in 2016 identified high needs and gaps for education estimated 384,000 children of school going age and in emergencies, as existing capacities and resources with varying severity scales. Movement of population were unable to meet the existing requirements.107 These affected by drought has resulted in an increase in gaps and needs were due to a lack of adequate learning enrollment in schools in host regions while other schools facilities, lack of trained teachers, basic emergency suffer from depletion or irregular attendance. After teaching and learning materials, as well as basic WASH many years of conflict and fragility coupled with poor facilities and school feeding. In Puntland, 70 percent education sector financing, the education sector is not of school children did not have access to safe drinking flexible enough to deal with fluctuations in attendance water and 80 percent did not have access to food due to wide displacement, and school resources often provision. In Somaliland, 41 percent of school children cannot adapt to the entry of additional students, with did not have access to safe water and 77 percent had little and ill-equipped teachers. This eventually results no access to food provision.108 In Central and Southern in poor quality teaching in overcrowded schools and regions, an estimated 90 percent of schools did not have lack of water and food for many school going children. access to safe drinking water.109 The drought continues to present challenges to many regions, and the whole country, in meeting the provision The lack of appropriate access to WASH facilities of education services. increases the risk of waterborne diseases such as AWD/ Cholera. During the first half of 2017, a significant number Drought Impact (Economic and Social Impact) of schools closed due to AWD/Cholera outbreaks- a lack of water has direct effects on prevalence of water By December 2016, 277,605 students (122,171 girls) were borne diseases especially affecting children of school enrolled in schools in drought-affected areas. The going age. effects of the drought have had debilitating effects in all affected areas.112 The education sector will continue The lack of access to school feeding severely hampers to be stretched during the short-term period, with the health and learning abilities of children. The Somalia most education interventions taking an “Education in Nutrition Cluster projects that 1.2 million children are, Emergencies” approach aimed at reducing the impact or will be, acutely malnourished by the end of 2017.110 of the drought. Access enhancement may take over Severely malnourished children are nine times more quality education provision. 107  omalia Rapid Needs Assessment (SIRNA) for drought affected areas in Puntland and Somaliland May 2016; Somalia Education Baseline Survey S 2016; Education Cluster Survey 2016. Inter-Agency Drought Assessments in Puntland: September 2016; Inter-Agency Drought Assessments in Somaliland: November 2016.  108  109 Somalia Education Baseline Survey 2016.  110 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15): October 2017.  111 The Lancet Child and Maternal Nutrition, June 2013.  112 Somalia Education Cluster. Keeping Children Safe Drought Newsletter No. 1.  92 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Overall enrollment and learning achievement among affected regions will be affected with gains made being reversed if the planned interventions are not implemented. Many more children may miss out on their education rights further compromising the gradual gains made over the years on increasing enrollment. Not developing additional learning spaces in areas of high displacement may degrade the levels of social cohesion and further aggravate conflicts between host and IDP communities. Lack of safety nets and social protection may result in IDP families not being able to meet school fees demands and further resulting in more IDP children dropping out of school. The Medium to Long Term Projections on the Sector and Impact on Development Goals Somalia has one of the world’s lowest proportions of primary-age children attending primary school. Nationally, the Gross Enrollment Rate (GER) is about 32 percent (with a primary GER of 20 percent in Central South regions of Somalia. Additionally, the GER for both primary and secondary education are lowest for socially excluded groups in rural areas and lower for girls compared to boys). Gender inequities in education are high, with girls’ participation consistently lower than for boys. Current levels remain relatively low (primary GPI: Puntland .79, Somaliland .83 and SC .70/ secondary GPI: Puntland .57, Somaliland .68, and SC .44.1). The proportion of girls enrolled in primary education ranges from 44-45 percent and for secondary education from 34-40 percent across the three regions. Urban residents consistently have the best education indicators while rural nomadic and pastoralist populations the worst, particularly girls. Barriers include: lack of educational infrastructure including schools; insufficient numbers of teachers in rural areas; lack of learning materials and supplies; distance to schools; as well as a curriculum that is poorly aligned to the cultural and economic needs of most nomadic and pastoral communities. Somalia exhibits a large youth bulge (4.6 million or 38 percent of the population is aged between 15-35 years). Youth unemployment is one of the highest rates in the world. Only 45 percent of youth can read and write (49 percent male, 41 percent female), 69 percent of youth are not currently enrolled in school. Additionally, nearly 46 percent of youth reside in urban areas. As a result, recent reports suggest that young people who are socially excluded may turn to ‘alternative’ income generating activities, including petty theft, organized © UNDP Somalia crime or joining extremist groups. Social Sectors | 93 III. Cross-cutting Considerations services, or from the sheer absence of services due to poor targeting of settlements. The lack of core services Gender: The Somalia Education Baseline Survey showed contributes to serious public health risks, preventable that in Gedo region where the largest concentration of deaths, and increased risks of GBV especially, for women primary school learners was found,113 about 45.2 percent and girls, often with inadequate access to reporting and (18,644) were girls. In terms of movements, Gedo referral mechanisms or accountability of perpetrators. Of region has seen departures and arrivals estimated at specific concern is the large number of drought-affected over 44,000 people. The baseline further identified the IDP communities from conflict areas. These IDPs with highest percentage of female primary school learners their perceived links to non-state armed actors face to be found in Mudug region, in which 7,555 of 15,827 increased exposure to security threats and discrimination reported learners (or 47.7 percent) were girls. Mudug in assistance provision from the host community.115 has seen departures and arrivals of over 100,000 people. Therefore, in an already difficult environment for girls, the Social Protection & Safety Nets: Most displaced families already reached and enrolled girls should be supported will not be able to make fee payments to the vast majority to complete their education if they are to count towards of private run schools. Having lost most of their livestock, improving gender equity in Somalia. By December 2016, many displaced families will require some form of social 277, 605 students (122,171 girls) were enrolled in schools protection if they are to continue meeting their daily in drought affected areas.114 needs let alone finance the education of their children. Schools too may need to roll out-of-school feeding There is a need to engender the response and recovery programs to enhance learning capacities of children. plan to ensure that gender issues are addressed. The needs for displaced girls will vary considerably to the Environment & Natural Resources: The development needs of boys especially taking into consideration of planned classrooms and “Temporary Learning the high prevalence of Gender Based Violence (GBV) Structures” (TLS) and other education infrastructure will affecting girls and women in IDP settings. take into consideration environmental sensitivity and sustainability. Somalia’s environment is classified as one Serious protection concerns persist in Somalia, putting of the most fragile. Development efforts will seek to displaced civilians’ and especially children of school mix and balance the use of local natural resources and going age at risk, Abuses, including wide spread GBV, industrial products. recruitment of children, physical attacks, and forced displacement remain a pervasive feature of the conflict Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: Strengthen- and displacement in Somalia. The drought also has ing education systems with data management systems triggered massive displacement and further exposed and supporting rapid education surveys using innova- civilians to serious protection risks. Women including tive tools like UNICEF supported RapidPro (SMS based girls, children and marginalized communities are service for data collection) can actively bring the private especially at risk and face specific protection concerns. sector towards supporting the recovery plan. Partnering with mobile service operators for data collection through In IDP settlements, many reside in overcrowded areas mobile telephony innovations will be pursued in support with poor living conditions and limited security provision, of the recovery and strengthening data collection for the where the basic needs of IDPs are not met due to whole education system. inconsistent service provision, exclusion from accessing 113  omalia Education Baseline Survey 2017, UNICEF Somalia Education Cluster. S 114 Keeping Children Safe Drought Newsletter No. 1, Education Cluster.  115  Draft Humanitarian Needs Overview, October 2017, Somalia HCT and Partners. 94 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment IV. Recovery Needs multilateral and United Nations agencies; building on national development plans and aligning with national Recovery Needs priorities; reinforcing national and local plans for DRR/ The proposed recovery needs will include; development climate risk reduction (CRR). of additional learning spaces to accommodate arriving school going children; enrolling additional displaced Recommendations for Building Resilience children of school going age who have not been in the Sector to school; developing local Community Education Committees to support and engage on education; rapid To promote equitable growth and reduce the impacts recruitment, training (pedagogy) and incentivization of of conflict, drought, floods and disease outbreaks the teachers; availing of adequate learning materials; and following are recommended: Developing national and strengthening education systems with data management state capacity for resilience management through a systems and support rapid education surveys using strong resilience coordination mechanism ensuring innovative tools like UNICEF supported RapidPro (SMS national leadership and commitment to investment; based service for data collection). Strengthening the ability of productive and social sectors to respond to changing conditions that offer greater potential to withstand disasters; Developing a Recovery Strategy range of instruments to protect the weakest in society The recovery strategy will include; responding to (school fees, remittances, school lunches, free health the needs and priorities of affected populations and care, water) beyond crisis periods; Supporting the maximizing their participation; prioritising the needs of accountability and transparency of sub-national planning displaced children whose learning is affected; focusing on processes (linked to the Resilience Pillar) to build trust displaced children of school going age who have never across communities;116 Implementing these mechanisms enrolled in any schools; ensuring national ownership and will help reduce the impact of crises and disasters in the leadership of the education recovery strategy; working education sector often resulting in loss on progress and in partnership with civil society, donors, NGOs, and expensive response and reconstruction efforts. Table 34: Summary Needs for Education Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Learning spaces Regional X 19,200,000 Teachers Regional X X 12,885,600 Learning materials/ kits Regional X X X 4,343,871 CEC structures to be supported Regional X X X 2,880,000 Education sector coordination Regional X X X 4,320,000 support and data tracking costs Total Education Needs 43,629,471 116  he European Union Emergency Trust Fund for stability and addressing the root causes of irregular migration and displaced persons in Africa. T Action Fice for the implementation of the Horn of Africa Window EUTF05-HoA-SOM-XX. Social Sectors | 95 Cross-cutting Sectors Food Security The economy of most agropastoral livelihoods is dominated by the pastoral element: livestock sales and milk sales. Once again, poor households have the most I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions diversified sources of income, as neither their livestock Somalia is a country in protracted crisis precipitated by holdings nor their agricultural land are large enough decades of conflict and recurrent droughts and floods. to sustain the family for a whole year. Labor provides The combined impact has manifested itself in collapse an average of 25 percent of their annual income; most of state institutions, massive population displacement of it is agricultural labor for wealthier local households. internally and externally, and two devastating famines Among agropastoral households, own production of that killed an estimated 200,000 people in 1991-1992 and crops covers an average of 40-45 percent of annual food 258,000 in 2010-2011. The protracted crisis in Somalia needs. Between 7 and 13 percent of the annual food has been exacerbated by widespread poverty. needs of poor and middle households are covered by milk and meat from the households’ own herds. The rest Food security is a cross-cutting sector that reflects the of households’ food needs (45-50 percent) are covered combined effects of drought on food security related through market purchases. sectors such as agriculture (crop production, access to agricultural employment), livestock (livestock production Households in agricultural livelihoods are normally self- and reproduction), trade and market prices (food and sufficient in staple foods, except poor households whose livestock prices and purchasing power of the population). land sizes are smaller (many of them are also agricultural laborers) and are obliged to purchase a large portion In Somalia, food security is closely associated with of their yearly cereal consumption. Households living poverty. Populations displaced due to drought and in agricultural areas gain the majority of their income conflict such as the urban and rural poor represent the from the sale of food crops, cash crops and, sometimes, majority of food insecure populations in Somalia. The fodder. Among poor agricultural households, agricultural urban poor and internally displaced persons (IDPs) tend labor is also an important source of income. to rely on casual labor employment, petty trade and humanitarian assistance as their source of food and Expenditure on staple and non-staple foods combined income. Among rural livelihoods, crop production and is highest in pastoralist communities, where all staple livestock contribute to a major portion of household grains need to be purchased. Food purchases represent food and income. 50-60 percent or more of their annual household budgets. Purchase of water represents an additional item In pastoral livelihoods, livestock sales provide almost of household expenditure among pastoral livelihoods half of annual household income. Livestock products, and some agropastoral livelihoods, especially during especially camel milk but also hides and ghee, provide the dry season. Domestic cereal production only covers an important secondary source of income for pastoral one-fifth of total requirements, with the gap being households. Poor pastoral households have diversified filled through private commercial imports and imported their income sources the most, and include charcoal and food aid. firewood sales (labeled “self-employment”), labor sales and gifts in their portfolios of income sources. Pastoral Futhermore, the main hazards affecting rural Somali households are highly dependent on markets where they households include drought, floods, environmental purchase most of their food. Camel milk, and to a lesser degradation, civil insecurity, high food prices (reduced extent, goat milk and the meat of slaughtered animals, purchasing power), market disruption, livestock complements their diet. In addition, poor pastoral disease, crop diseases and pests. Households engage households receive food gifts from wealthier neighbors in a variety of strategies in response to shocks and and humanitarian assistance. hazards, including: migration to more distant range 96 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM/Muse Mohammed lands, purchasing water for livestock, increased milk household food and income. In recent years, frequent sales, increased livestock sales, increased charcoal/ crop production failures in crop dependent areas firewood sales, family splitting (in search for labor/ and severe shortage of pasture and water in pastoral livestock migration), seeking gifts and loan in kind and areas followed by substantial livestock losses have cash, temporary labor migration to towns in search of disrupted livelihoods and have contributed to further employment, increased agricultural labor, searching population displacement. for share-cropping opportunities, intercropping short cycle crops (pumpkins, beans, etc.), increased The impact of drought in terms of the increases collection of wild foods/fish, and reduced number of in the number of people experiencing acute food daily meals. insecurity between the pre-drought baseline (2015) and the drought (2016-2017) period is assessed Food insecurity is widespread among displaced using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification populations and among poor rural populations affected (IPC) framework.117 by natural hazards which adversely affected sources of 117 FAO, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Technical Manual, 2012, Rome.  Cross-cutting Sectors | 97 Table 35: Pre-drought (Baseline) Average Number of Acutely Food Insecure People in Somalia by Region Region Population # of Acutely Food Insecure People in % Share of Population Crisis (IPC 3) Emergency (IPC 4) IPC 3 & 4 Awdal 673,264 69,209 0 69,209 10 Woqooyi 1,242,003 97,749 4,086 101,836 8 Galbeed Togdheer 721,364 30,134 4,940 35,074 5 Sool 327,427 12,274 1,258 13,532 4 Sanaag 544,123 39,665 0 39,665 7 Bari 730,148 81,892 3,704 85,596 12 Nugaal 392,697 12,307 742 13,049 3 Mudug 717,863 43,514 625 44,139 6 Galgaduud 569,434 36,625 1,876 38,502 7 Hiraan 520,684 27,726 2,500 30,226 6 Middle Shabelle 516,035 8,033 0 8,033 2 Lower Shabelle 1,202,222 25,083 0 25,083 2 Benadir 1,650,228 356,617 22,469 379,086 23 Bay 792,182 17,279 2,697 19,977 3 Bakool 367,227 26,716 0 26,716 7 Gedo 508,403 7,317 2,633 9,950 2 Middle Juba 362,922 9,591 0 9,591 3 Lower Juba 489,307 30,645 2,897 33,542 7 Total 12,327,533 932,377 50,429 982,806 8 The average pre-drought (2015)118 number of people in II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact acute food security Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 Endemic to Somalia in recent decades due to a & 4) was 983,000.119 This figure is used as a baseline to confluence of natural disasters and insecurity, food estimate the food security impact of the current (2016- security has significantly worsened during the 2016-17 2017) drought. drought. The 2016 Gu (April to June) rains were poor, Government institutional and technical capacity in started late and ended early in most regions; rainfall relation to food security monitoring, assessment, analysis was better in parts of the previously drought affected and policy and strategy development is gradually northwest. In the southern part of Somalia, considered improving but remains weak. Somalia doesn’t yet have the major crop producing part of the country, the 2016 a food security strategy and policy. It also doesn’t have Gu cereal production was estimated at 65,000 tonnes.120 safety nets that could cushion most households or This represents 49 percent below long-term average population groups. (1995-2015) and 20 percent below the five-year average for 2011-2015.121 118  new estimate for the total population of Somalia (12.3 million) became available following dissemination of the final report of the Somalia A Population Estimation Sample Survey (PESS) in October 2014. The new population estimates ware used as a basis for food security assessments starting in 2015. Prior to 2015, food security assessments were based on a total Somalia population figure of 7.5 million which was estimated by UNDP in 2005.Thereore, the average for 2015 was used as a baseline instead of the average for 2013-2015. 119 FSNAU-FEWS NET, Somalia 2015 Post Gu Assessment Results, 31 August 2015. Nairobi and Washington.  120  FS FSNAU/FEWSNET 2016. Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Analysis: Post Gu 2016. Technical Series Report No. VII.69. 121 Ibid. 98 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Poor 2016 Gu rainfall, locally significant floods, trade poor households as staple food prices continued to disruption, and new and continued population rise sharply and livestock prices decreased significantly. displacement contributed to a worsening of the food Rising food prices also affected food access among security situation in Somalia since the beginning of displaced and poor urban households. Total loss 2016. Acute malnutrition has also worsened over the of livestock and destitution were reported in some same time period and remained high in many parts of northern pastoral areas as a result of worsening drought the country. As a result, approximately 1,139,000 people conditions. Drought-related distress migration also were classified in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 increased substantially. Acute malnutrition remained & 4) across Somalia between August and December high and widespread across Somalia. As a result, over 2016. Additionally, 3.9 million people were classified 2.9 million people faced Crisis and Emergency (IPC as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the December 2016, Phases 3 and 4) across Somalia between February and bringing the total number of people facing acute June 2017. Additionally, more than 3.3 million people food insecurity across Somalia to five million (see Figure were classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), bringing the 26 below).122 total number of people facing acute food insecurity across Somalia between February and June 2017 to over The poor 2016 Gu season rainfall was followed by 6.2 million.124 another poor rainfall during the 2016 Deyr (October- December) for the second consecutive season. The Results from the 2017 post-Jilaal (January-March 2016 Deyr (October-December) rainfall was much assessment conducted in March and April 2017) below average and poorly distributed across most parts indicated further worsening of the food security in the of Somalia. Coupled with low river water levels, this country. Severe water shortage in parts of southern greatly impacted the Deyr season cereal harvest which Somalia during the dry 2017 Jilaal season led to a is estimated at 32 000 tonnes, 70 percent below long- severe AWD/cholera outbreak and expansion to more term (1995-2015) average and 75 percent below the regions.125 Data from UNHCR indicated that an estimated five-year average for 2011-2015.123 As severe drought 437,530 persons were displaced in the first quarter gripped most parts of Somalia, food crisis worsened in of 2017 due to drought related factors. As a result, an rural areas. Near total crop failures and reduced rural estimated 3.2 million people were classified as Crisis employment opportunities, widespread shortage of and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 &4) between April and water and pasture, consequent increases in livestock June 2017. Additionally, 3.5 million people are classified deaths, and rapidly diminishing food access among as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through June 2017, bringing 122 Ibid. 123 FSNAU-FEWS NET, Somalia 2016 Post Deyr Technical Release, 2 February 2017. Nairobi and Washington.  124 Ibid. 125 FSNAU-FEWS NET, Somalia Food Security Alert, 9 May 2017. Nairobi and Washington.  Cross-cutting Sectors | 99 the total number of people facing acute food insecurity Depletion of livestock assets due to distress sales and across Somalia to a peak of 6.7 million.126 Large-scale mortality has contributed to increased indebtedness humanitarian assistance which started in early 2017 and destitution among many pastoralists. As a result helped reduced household food consumption gaps and an estimated 3.1 million people were classified be in contributed to reduced staple food prices. However, an Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remained due to December 2017.128 Additionally, 3.1 million people were the combination of severe food consumption gaps, high classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), bringing the total acute malnutrition, high disease burden, and reliance on number of people facing acute food insecurity across humanitarian assistance. Somalia to 6.2 million for the period between August and December 2017.129 For the third season in a row since the beginning of 2016, the rains performed poorly during the 2017 Gu The modest decline in the number of acutely food (April-June) season, leading to persistent drought insecure people is the result of scaled up and sustained conditions across most parts of Somalia. The 2017 Gu humanitarian assistance in the first half of 2017 rains started late, ended early and were below average (Figure 27) and locally significant 2017 Gu (April-June) in most parts of Somalia. The Gu season cereal harvest, season rainfall.130 which is estimated at 78,400 tonnes, is 37 percent lower than the long-term (1995-2016) average.127 Gu/Karan Climate forecasts for the 2017 Deyr (October-December) cereal production in northwest Somalia is estimated season indicate increased likelihood of below normal at 6,500 tonnes, 87 percent lower than the 2010-2016 rainfall for most parts of Somalia. average. As a consequence, poor households in crop- The drought that persisted in 2016 and 2017 led to an dependent livelihood zones of the northwest and increase of 1.6 million in the total the number of people southern Somalia have little or no food stocks. Farm who need urgent humanitarian assistance (IPC Phases 3 labor opportunities were also limited. In pastoral areas and 4) compared to the 2015 baseline. The details are affected by protracted and persistent drought, livestock shown in Table 36. production and reproduction have declined sharply. 126 Ibid. 127 FSNAU-FEWS NET, Somalia 2017 Post Gu Technical Release, 31 August 2017. Mogadishu and Washington.  128 FSNAU-FEWS NET, Somalia Quarterly Food Security and Nutrition Brief, 28 September 2017. Nairobi.  129 Ibid. 130 FSNAU-FEWS NET, Somalia 2017 Post Gu Technical Release, 31 August 2017. Mogadishu and Washington.  100 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 36: Impact of Drought on Number of People Requiring Urgent Food Security Assistance Region Population Baseline Current Drought Drought Impact on (2015) (2016-2017) Impact # of IPC 3&4 IPC 3&4 IPC 3&4 IPC 3&4 As % of As % of Total Regional IPC 3&4 Population Awdal 673,264 69,209 102,061 32,851 5 2 Woqooyi 1,242,003 101,836 121,547 19,712 2 1 Galbeed Togdheer 721,364 35,074 127,915 92,841 13 6 Sool 327,427 13,532 90,871 77,340 24 5 Sanaag 544,123 39,665 141,719 102,054 19 6 Bari 730,148 85,596 141,668 56,072 8 3 Nugaal 392,697 13,049 95,569 82,520 21 5 Mudug 717,863 44,139 231,715 187,576 26 12 Galgaduud 569,434 38,502 159,204 120,703 21 7 Hiraan 520,684 30,226 198,696 168,470 32 10 Middle 516,035 8,033 56,756 48,723 9 3 Shabelle Lower 1,202,222 25,083 151,754 126,671 11 8 Shabelle Benadir 1,650,228 379,086 359,194 -19,892 -1 -1 Bay 792,182 19,977 262,231 242,254 31 15 Bakool 367,227 26,716 141,087 114,371 31 7 Gedo 508,403 9,950 73,088 63,137 12 4 Middle Juba 362,922 9,591 56,134 46,543 13 3 Lower Juba 489,307 33,542 82,266 48,724 10 3 Total 12,327,533 982,806 2,593,475 1,610,669 13 100 Table 37: Commercial Import of Cereals in Somalia (in tonnes) Type of Cereal Imported Pre-Drought (Current Drought Drought Impact (2013-15 Average) 2016-2017 Average) Rice 178,999 242,348 63,350 Wheat Flour 262,052 301,661 39,609 (Cereal Equivalent) Pasta (Cereal Equivalent) 155,541 206,996 51,455 Total 596,591 751,005 154,414 Cross-cutting Sectors | 101 The response to the 2016-2017 drought also led to an increase of one million in the number of food insecure people assisted through food and/or cash as part of the ongoing humanitarian response. The monthly average number of people that received food security assistance (food or cash) has increased from a pre-drought baseline of 300,000 to over 1.3 million during the current drought (see Figure 28).131 Table 38: The Estimated Cost of Food Security Assistance (cash and/food) Due to the Current Drought (in USD) Region 2016-2017 (21 Months) Awdal 8,102,364 Woqooyi Galbeed 14,337,078 Togdheer 19,292,623 Sool 33,682,166 Sanaag 56,523,519 Bari 60,094,509 Nugaal 24,363,638 Mudug 33,378,901 Galgaduud 12,236,091 Hiraan 15,073,768 Middle Shebelle 3,857,220 Lower Shabelle 5,535,627 Benadir 23,044,636 Bay 30,056,169 Bakool 16,808,229 Gedo 22,450,986 Lower Juba 20,231,627 Middle Juba 443,948 Grand Total 399,513,099 131 Ibid. 102 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Domestic production decline as a result of the current drought has also contributed to increased commercial imports of 154,400 tonnes of cereals per year during 2016-2017. Commercial import of cereals increased from an annual average of 596,600 tonnes during 2013-2015 to an estimated annual average of 751,000 tonnes in 2016-2017 (see Table 37). Damages assessment is not relevant in the analysis of the impact of drought on food security. However, losses are estimated as follows: Table 39: The Estimated Cost of Increased Commercial Imports Due to the Current Drought Type of Cereal Imported Increased Commercial Import Price (CIF) USD Import Due to Drought Estimated (USD/Tonne) (Tonnes) Rice 63,350 273 17,309,651 Wheat Flour 39,609 239 9,475,630 (Cereal Equivalent) Pasta (Cereal Equivalent) 51,455 239 12,309,673 Total 154,414 - 39,094,954 The cost of food security assistance (cash and/food) due The cost of increased commercial imports due to the to the current drought current drought An estimated USD 399.5 million has been spent on An estimated USD 39.1 million has been spent over the providing food security assistance in response to the 2016-2017 drought period on increased commercial current drought (see Table 38). import of cereals to Somalia. The estimate is obtained by multiplying the estimated increased volume of The above estimate is obtained by multiplying the commercial import of cereals with the discounted retail average number of people assisted in 2016 and 2017 price of cereals at the main ports of entry (Berbera, by the region-specific average transfer value of for food Bossaso and Mogadishu markets). Average import prices security related cash based interventions. This typically (cost, insurance plus freight costs) of cereals assumed to represented 80 percent of the cost of the monthly be 20 percent lower than retail prices in these markets Total Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) among (see Table 38). poor households. Cross-cutting Sectors | 103 III. Recovery Needs populations in hard-to reach areas that are plagued by continued physical insecurity. This is not only necessary Continuing gaps in assistance to populations in stressed to prevent further displacement but it may also facilitate IPC Phase 2 could lead to further deterioration of food voluntary return of IDPs. security, forcing some households to adopt “irreversible” coping strategies.132 Humanitarian assistance will need to Due to very high levels of poverty, limited livelihood be scaled up for the remainder of 2017-2018 to prevent a assets and opportunities, IDPs remain extremely deterioration of food security and livelihoods conditions. vulnerable. The pre-drought number of displaced Although famine has been averted, the elevated risk (IPC people in Somalia (1.1 million) is estimated to have Phase 5) still looms as a result of severe food consumption reached over 2 million due to the current drought. One gaps, high acute malnutrition, elevated disease burden aspect of the displacement due to the current drought is and dependence on humanitarian assistance.130 Food that most of the newly displaced are displaced not very insecurity and the resulting humanitarian needs are far from their places of origin. As a result, this recent tide projected to deteriorate through May 2018 as per the of displacement has a greater chance of being reversed maps in Figure 29.134 with the right mix of support interventions. Providing food security support in rural areas is not only important While urgent food security assistance should be provided in preventing further displacement, it may also be to all people in IPC Phases 3 and 4 (i.e. rural, IDP and instrumental in facilitating early and voluntary return urban), particular attention must be paid in ensuring among recently displaced populations. adequate access to food security assistance for rural 132 F  EWSNET 2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook – October 2017 to May 2018: “A fifth consecutive below-average season likely; Famine (IPC Phase 5) risk continues.” 133 Ibid. 134 Ibid. 135 Ibid. 104 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment To sustainably reduce the level of acute food insecurity in of food security needs, mobilization of resources and Somalia, durable solutions for IDPs aimed at either local delivery of assistance to affected population is likely integration or reintegration in place of origin should be to have contributed to erosion of livelihood assets, given priority in the medium to long-term. coping mechanisms and in the end to the worsening of food insecurity. Given the cumulative impact of the current drought, both immediate and medium term interventions should Considering the strong association between food also provide livelihood protection and rehabilitation insecurity and poverty, the very high and widespread support. Livelihood support to people in Crisis and poverty and unemployment in Somalia will also Emergency (IPC Phases 3 & 4) will help prevent further contribute to sustainable improvement in the food deterioration and facilitate the recovery process from security of its population. The following short-, medium- the ongoing drought. Livelihood protection support and long-term recovery and resilience needs have been is critical in preventing further deterioration among identified in order to address persistent and high levels people classified in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases of acute food insecurity in Somalia. Short- to medium- 3 &4) and in supporting their timely recovery from the term interventions will focus on improved household current drought. food storage to reduce food waste and improved food security early warning systems. Medium- to long-term For over the past two decades and most recently, interventions will support development of a national since the Famine of 2010-2011, there has not been a food security strategy and policy and a national poverty year when Somalia did not seek urgent humanitarian reduction and resilience strategy. It is also noted that assistance to feed its population. The recurrent nature the prioritization of road investment on infrasturcture of the food security crisis in Somalia underscores the as detailed in the Transport sector will take into predictable and protracted nature of the humanitarian consideration the potential for direct positive impact need, at least in part. Addressing protracted crisis using on humanitarian response, either reducing logistics short-term humanitarian response mechanisms does overheads or extending assistance and markets to not yield a lasting impact and is likely to be costlier secondary towns. over the long run. The time gap between assessment Table 40: Summary Needs for Food Security Summary of Drought Recovery Needs136 Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Improved food storage National X X 20,000,000 to reduce waste Improved food security National X 5,000,000 early warning systems Support for the development of a National X 120,000 national food security strategy Support for the development National X 240,000 of a national poverty reduction strategy Total Food Security Needs 25,360,000 136  iven the ongoing nature of the drought, the cost and extent of recovery needs interventions will be updated as part of the subsequent Recovery G and Resilience Framework (RRF) process. Cross-cutting Sectors | 105 © IOM/Muse Mohammed Assessment Considerations security. The more predictable (chronic) component of food insecurity (in terms of magnitude) is estimated by The impact of drought in terms of the increases in the taking the minimum number of people in IPC Phases 3 & number of people experiencing acute food insecurity 4 over the 2015-2017 period for each region. between the pre-drought baseline (2015) and the drought (2016-2017) period is assessed using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) framework. The impact Urban Development and Municipal Services of the current drought is estimated by comparing pre- drought (2013-2015) and current (2016-2017) information on the following: I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions Somalia has experienced rapid urbanization due to ncreased volume and expenditure on commercial •I significant forced migrations caused by protracted import of cereals conflicts, insecurity, and cyclical natural disasters.  dditional number of acutely food insecure people •A Somalia’s current urbanization level is estimated at across Somalia that need urgent humanitarian around 33-40 percent,137 and the country is urbanizing assistance (IPC Phases 3 & 4) at a rapid rate of about 4 percent nationally.138 With •E  stimation of the cost of food security assistance a GDP per capita of roughly USD 450, Somalia’s (food and/or cash) provided during the current urbanization rate is higher than countries at similar levels drought (2016-2017) using data on the Cost of of development. The rapid urbanization is caused by Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMEB) which has significant forced displacements from rural areas into been developed and regularly updated by the urban areas driven by decades of internal conflicts, Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) insecurity, political turmoil, human rights violations, and governance failures, in addition to the traditional IPC Chronic analysis has not yet been undertaken in economic rural-urban migration. These challenges are Somalia. Therefore, an indirect approach is taken in compounded by cyclical environmental adversities such order to inform recovery and resilience needs for food as drought and famine. Many communities in urban 137 http://ww2.unhabitat.org/habrdd/conditions/eafrica/somalia.htm. The CIA World Factbook estimates 37.7 % for 2011. 138 The CIA World Factbook estimates 3.79 % for the period of 2010-2015. 106 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment areas have further faced forcible land acquisitions and camps in Kenya are also likely to remain in urban centres evictions, culminating in even more displacements. as they have little farming experience and are relatively well educated and equipped with skillsets more useful in As of October 2017, there are an estimated 1.1 million urban settings. Even those intending to return to farming protracted IDPs in Somalia, many of whom reside in are unlikely to do so soon due to the acute drought and urban areas.139 Most of them live in outskirts of urban insecurity in rural areas. areas in southern and central Somalia.140 Mogadishu has attracted the largest number of IDPs in the country – over Significant influx of migrants and unplanned 464,000 IDPs out of its total population of approximately urbanization have placed considerable strain on land 1.7 million. Over 28 percent of the city’s residents are and housing. Land is a socially and economically IDPs, and they mainly live in informal settlements. sensitive issue in Somalia, particularly in urban areas. If a similar migration trend continues, Mogadishu’s Absence of a coherent land administration system has population is expected to grow at an alarming rate of introduced significant uncertainty. In the absence of 3.52 percent between 2006-2020.141 Baidoa, one of a legal framework that allows clear access to land and the strategic towns in southern Somalia, hosted 9,327 property, marginalized groups such as IDPs, women, households or approximately 55,962 IDPs living in 72 youth, and members of minority clans have been settlements as of April 2016. IDPs had been displaced disproportionately affected. primarily because of drought, concomitant conflict and loss of livelihoods.142 Kismayo, the third largest city in Basic services and infrastructure in urban areas are Somalia and the capital of Jubaland State, was host to inadequate and face increased pressure. Provision about 18,000 IDPs in 79 different sites as of December of basic services such as health, education, water and 2016. IDPs have arrived more recently because of sanitation, power, and solid waste management are prolonged drought and conflict.143 Secondary cities are reaching saturation with influx of people. also affected by this trend, but to less severe levels in Despite the recent positive economic outlook in the short term. Somalia, unemployment and underemployment remain The country has also witnessed a steady flow of returnees high. Since 2013, the economy has shown positive and refugees from neighboring countries. Refugee developments in Somalia, particularly in the three camps in the Horn of Africa house over 1.1 million cities of Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo. Yet, the Somali refugees (or close to 11 percent of the country’s positive outlook has not translated into immediate job population). Most of them are in Ethiopia, Kenya, and opportunities. Approximately 40 percent of the labor Yemen. Since December 2014 till June 2017, over 68,600 force in urban areas are unemployed. Urban livelihoods refugees have returned to Somalia from Kenya, around in Somalia largely rely on an informal economy based on 32,000 refugees have returned from Yemen, totaling trade, hospitality, transport, utilities (energy and water), approximately 101,000 refugees returning to Somalia communications and construction sectors. Somalia since December 2014.144 More recently, conflict in Yemen is faced with a very young population, 70 percent of has caused close to 37,000 Yemeni refugees to seek which is under the age of 30. IDPs who tend to have shelter in Somalia by April 2017.145 lower education and skills are further disadvantaged by their unstable living conditions and lack of personal Many of these IDPs and returnees have settled in urban connections. IDPs lack permanent job opportunities and areas such as Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo, and mostly engage in daily wage labor, working as porters their number is likely to increase. A recent assessment and construction workers and reportedly only earn USD in Baidoa indicates that nearly 50 percent of IDPs 1-5 a day in Mogadishu or Kismayo.148 Employment arrived five or more years ago. Close to 50 percent of opportunities in secondary cities are more limited and the recent IDPs in Baidoa have expressed their intention depend on unique local conditions or infrastructure. to permanently settle in the city.146 In Kismayo, much of the displaced population has been there 20 years or In all urban areas, high poverty rates exist, particularly longer.147 Those returning from Dadaab and Kakuma among IDPs. Poverty in IDP settlements remains very 139 U  NOCHA Humanitarian Bulletin July 2017. 140 UN Human Rights Council, 2010.  141 World Bank. 2017. “Addressing the Urban Challenge - Somalia”. July 2017. Internal Strategy Note. 142 Infrastructure Mapping Exercise: Baidoa, Intersos and REACH (2017) “Baidoa IDP Settlement Assessment”.  143 REACH (2016). “Kismayo IDP Settlement Assessment”.  144  UNHCR (2017). “Repatriation Update Somalia (June 30, 2017)”. 145 http://dat.unhcr.org/yemen/regional.php. 146 IOM (2017). “IOM-DTM Somalia Intention Survey – Baidoa”. (Draft)  147 World Bank (2017). “Somalia Urban Infrastructure Dynamic Needs Assessment: Kismayo and Baidoa”. (Mimeo)  148 Ibid. Cross-cutting Sectors | 107 high at 70 percent, while poverty rate in Mogadishu Effects on Space and Settlements is also quite high at 57 percent. Overall urban areas’ poverty rate is estimated at 52 percent, meaning more IDPs have moved to urban centers, settling on public than half the people live in poverty in urban areas.149 and private lands within and in the outskirts of cities. Mogadishu has seen construction of over 7,000 new Yet the Government has limited capacity and resources structures - 6,035 shelters and 1,130 tents - since the to address these challenges. District Councils and onset of the drought. 34 percent of the settlements municipal governments in Somalia have the primary present in town have been established within the last 6 responsibility in providing basic services such as water months.155 and sanitation, power, transport, and solid waste management (with more limited activities pertaining Baidoa has experienced a 67 percent increase in IDP- to education and health). But they vary widely in related housing structures, totaling around 34,000 geographic and population jurisdiction as well as structures such as shelters and tents.156 Within 7 months fiscal and organizational capacity. Capacity and fiscal (September 2016 – April 2017) the area occupied by IDP constraints often limit the ability of the local governments settlements in Baidoa fringes increased by 177 percent, to undertake basic municipal functions, and outside of a and now constitutes more than 10 percent of the built- few larger cities, these constraints deepen rapidly. The up area of the town.157 capacity of secondary cities is more constrained than in Since 2016, the drought is estimated to have brought major urban hubs. 41,760 IDPs with 6,960 new structures built, while in 2014-15, Kismayo only had 2,951 IDP structures and II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact150 an estimated 17,712 IDPs. The number of IDPs in the city has more than tripled, bringing the total number The 2016-2017 drought has resulted in around 926,000 of IDPs close to 60,000, including 10,000 returnees newly displaced people since November 2016.151 from Kenya.158 159 Majority of the new displacements have occurred in regions such as Mudug, Bay and Benadir. Most of the The ad hoc IDP settlements have exacerbated the drought-displaced people are hosted in settlements in urban sprawl in the cities compounding pressure on Mogadishu (161,000 people), Baidoa (174,000 people)152 land and service delivery. Increased population density and Kismayo (42,000 people).153 These three cities alone and overcrowding in Somalia’s urban areas will further host almost 40 percent of the total drought-related exacerbate the current poor level of public services and displacements with the remaining 60 percent hosted by will increase demand for land and shelter. Pressure on other secondary cities.154 land will increase, and the unplanned urbanization will take a toll on the cities and environment. The large and rising influx of drought-related displaced people in Somalia’s urban areas has put additional stress In the absence of security of land tenure, IDPs are highly on the already strained key sectors particularly land and vulnerable to forced eviction. As urbanization continues housing, health, education, water and sanitation, and and demand for land surges, forced eviction of IDPs from jobs. In many cases, urban centers have been unable to both private and public lands continues. Over 109,000 cope with the constant and large influxes of IDPs, and IDPs have been forcefully evicted across the country have been unable to keep up with the provision of basic between January and August 2017.160 Forced eviction services that are acutely needed. This has put increased negatively affects IDPs’ livelihood opportunities and pressure on the delivery and quality of services and the strains communities’ level of self-reliance and resilience. local governments’ financial outlook. 149 World Bank (2017). “Somalia: Promoting Sustainable Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity – A Systematic Country Diagnostic”. Due to data limitations, the urban sector assessment focused on the three major cities in Central South that have the highest levels of 150  displacement, namely Mogadishu, Kismayo and Baidoa. 151 Drought Displacements in period 1 Nov 2016 to 30 Jun 2017, UNHCR Somalia. 152 Humanitarian Bulletin, July 2017, UNOCHA. 153 IPSOS (2017) Secondary cities are not in the focus of longer term development investments and support, but are mostly served by humanitarian 154  agencies and charities. 155 IOM, Displacement situation report, October 2017. 156 New construction within the vicinity of Baidoa, UNOSAT shelter count. 157 Baidoa Urban Profile, UN-Habitat 158 IPSOS geospatial data analysis. 159 UNHCR “Cumulative Drought driven displacements: 1 Nov 2016 to 23 Jun 2017”. 160 Norwegian Refugee Council  108 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Considerable number of drought-induced IDPs live in The recent drought has made water supply pre¬carious, emergency or temporary shelters. Most of the drought and with increasing number of people moving into induced IDPs currently reside on government or private urban areas the situation is worsening. Uncontrolled land and do not have the authorization to build more and informal exploitation of the aquifer threatens permanent types of shelter. Recent assessments in sustainability, safety and access to water supplies in the three cities have found that over 70 percent of the the city. Boreholes and wells are spreading without surveyed IDPs reside traditional shelters. The poor coordination, threatening the durability of ground water shelter conditions demonstrate pressing needs for better resources. This is a matter of concern especially in coastal land tenure security and decent quality of shelters. areas like Mogadishu and Kismayo, where studies show that the movement of saline/fresh water wedge of the With a high proportion of IDPs opting to permanently underground aquifer is considerable, progressing inland settle in cities, there is a need to provide security of land in years with less rain.164 tenure and permanent shelters. Surveys have shown that about 50 percent of IDPs in Baidoa,161 close to 90 percent The steady development of constructed areas not in Kismayo,162 and about 50 percent of IDPs in Mogadishu properly planned is a significant risk for environmental prefer to settle permanently in the cities. There is thus degradation. Uncontrolled urbanization can alter the a need for an inclusive engagement involving all key natural waterways considerably, which are no longer stakeholders along with the local authority to improve draining storm water to traditional outlets. The less security of land tenure in the three main urban areas, as permeable surfaces associated with urban development well as in secondary cities. results in increased storm water runoff volume and peak discharge, which is often evidenced by chronic Effects on Infrastructure and Physical Assets flooding and degraded water quality. Urbanization also slowly reduces permeable soil and rural areas and There is a significant need to reconstruct or upgrade cause removal of vegetation. This provokes erosion as existing roads. The overall investment required in the well as maceration of the soil, posing additional transport sector is expected to be 20 percent of the environmental threats. overall investment needed in the Somali economy, or 4 percent of GDP in the next ten years.163 Sudden urban Effects on Access to Basic Services expansion caused by IDP settlement further aggravates this situation. In many towns, these settlements With 40 percent of the displaced population in school occupy large areas of subserviced land. Road access is age (5-17), access to education, both primary and insufficient and will require major investment to connect secondary school, needs serious attention.165 Three spread-out sites to the existing urban fabric and ensure main obstacles are hampering school-age children effective market linkages and access to services. among IDPs from attending schools: family reasons; affordability; and lack of school facilities nearby. Many Urban sprawl leads to congestion of vital regional children help earn a livelihood for the household and roads and major transport infrastructure. In Baidoa, IDP therefore don’t attend classes. Furthermore, as most settlements in the south-west part of the town encroaches formal schools within towns require a high fee, education on the space around the airport and poses security for IDPs is almost entirely provided by humanitarian issues as well as hampers its operations. In Mogadishu, agencies, who are unable to cover the high demand. A the displaced population is largely concentrated in its strategic approach is therefore needed to enhance both peripheral districts around the Afgoye road, Somalia’s access to schools (through rehabilitation/construction main trade corridor. Urban growth is expected to of more schools and teacher training) as well as abilities continue along this zone, exacerbating pressure on the to attend school (through financial support such as already congested route. school vouchers). 161 IOM (2017) 162 REACH (2017) 163 Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment.  164 Water Quality Study Mogadishu and Kismayo, Geneva Foundation.  165 UNHCR, Somalia displacement dashboard - Cumulative Internal Displacements and Trends 1 January - 30 September 2017. Cross-cutting Sectors | 109 Additional to existing pressures of the limited number high growth potential in Mogadishu. The most dynamic of health facilities, the drought increased the pressure sectors in Kismayo include construction, retail, telecom- with a sharp rise in communicable diseases such as acute munication, and hospitality, while the port serves as a watery diarrhea (AWD)/cholera and the (re-)emergence revenue and job generator. In Baidoa, while prospects of infections like measles. The severe drought and its are more limited compared to the other two cities, con- consequences, including water scarcity and malnutrition, struction, retail, and agriculture present the highest are major factors contributing to the ongoing cholera prospects of job generation. But access to jobs is hin- outbreak.166 More AWD/cholera cases are reported in dered by traditional clan-based recruitment practices districts of high presence of IDP settlements, where these in both the public and the private sectors, which work conditions are prevalent. Baidoa registers the highest to the disadvantage of the IDPs, who often come from number of cholera cases in Somalia at 12,144 as of July minority clans. 2017. Kismayo and Mogadishu are also among the most affected, with 2,925 and 6,619 cases respectively.167 Effects on Governance and Institutions There is an acute need to increase the supply of clean Increased pressure on services and infrastructure is water and improve sanitation. Residents in Mogadishu exacerbated by inadequate government capacity and rely on water from privately-owned boreholes or resources. Capacity and fiscal constraints often limit the shallow wells.168 Water quality is generally considered ability of municipalities to undertake basic functions. very poor, and local media frequently report on water Responsibilities and division of labor between sub- borne diseases caused by groundwater contamination. national governments and the federal government The water supply system needs to be geographically are still blurred. In the absence of public provision of extended beyond the city center to cover the IDP infrastructure and services, international aid agencies settlements in the outskirts. and the private sector have stepped into the void. In terms of addressing the needs of the IDPs, it is almost Solid waste management is being neglected and the entirely covered by humanitarian aid agencies with problem is compounded by the influx of IDPs. All cities limited coordination with the government, which is urgently need a sufficient solid and liquid waste, as well unsustainable in the longer-term. as a sanitary landfill site. IDPs in the three cities hardly have any access to waste collection, and they mostly While private service providers fill in an important dispose of their waste by burning it, exacerbating the void, overreliance on private service delivery hinders environmental threats.169 the network approach to service delivery and results in fragmented service provision. There is a need to Effects on Economy and Livelihoods strengthen the regulatory environment and the capacity of the government to play the necessary regulatory role. With the influx of additional labor supply, competition Moreover, there is a need to shift from a fractured, highly over jobs is likely to intensify in the longer-term. Currently, inefficient service delivery approach to a networked many drought IDPs rely on external assistance such as system approach that allows for greater reach cash transfer programs. However, this is not sustainable and efficiency. in the long-term. As a large portion of the IDPs likely settles in cities, competition over jobs will intensify Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities as some IDPs seek sustainable livelihoods beyond external assistance. With 73 percent of the population Current unplanned and unregulated city expansion has below the age of 30, increased unemployment and led to arbitrary distribution of land and has aggravated underemployment among youth can become a social contestation over land. Vulnerable populations hardly problem, and if not addressed quickly, can lead to benefit from increased investments that have emerged potential social unrest. in stabilizing and growing cities such as Mogadishu and Kismayo. Rapid urban growth produces sprawling Mogadishu and Kismayo offer a range of job opportu- peri-urban zones where systems of urban and rural land nities, while Baidoa has a more limited potential. Areas tenure can collide and produce intense land disputes such as construction, services, trade, telecommunica- without effective mechanisms to resolve them. Nascent tions and financial services (money transfers) present formal institutions are unequipped to equitably re- The current level of available doctors, nurses and midwives is estimated at 4 for a population of 10,000. There are an estimated 1,223 health facilities 166  resulting to an access ratio of 10,000 people per health facility. 167 WHO and Somalia Ministry of Health, Situation report for Acute Watery Diarrhea/Cholera, Epidemiological week 29 (17th to 23rd July 2017). 168 ReDSS (2017). 169 Ibid. 110 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment establish tenure units, and customary rights are often III. Recovery Needs arbitrary and not accessible to returnees and migrants Recovery Needs, Prioritization of Needs who cannot access, control and transfer land customary and Population Groups rights on the same grounds as local communities.170 In the short-term (within the next year), provision of Intense competition over land exacerbates forced temporary shelter with security of tenure to most the evictions particularly among IDPs. Forced evictions drought-displaced people living in make-shift tents are an immediate protection concern. Forced eviction is urgently needed. Based on the assessment, about relates to structural problems such as lack of land tenure 70 percent of the newly arrived still live in emergency security, lack of access to justice/channels of recourse shelter/make-shift tents (buuls). These shelters are and adequate frameworks and tools to integrate the neither durable nor hygienic. Safe settlements with no displaced population into the urban population of the threats of eviction are needed to provide vulnerable city. IDPs from minority groups and female-headed communities with protected and healthy living spaces HHs are the most vulnerable as they do not possess the and environments, while ensuring sufficient privacy and social network or male household member to rely on. dignity for the groups, families and individuals with Where land tenure is insecure, IDPs are also unable to them. For the short term, newly arrived IDPs require sustain their livelihoods. To stop this cycle of multiple temporary shelter until their situation stabilizes and displacements, IDPs need to be issued land agreements, ultimately decide whether they would like to settle down recognized title deeds or rental agreements obtained in the urban areas or return to their places of origin. through existing legal frameworks as a means of securing This requires the government to provide adequate their housing, land and property rights. public land so that IDPs can stay for an extended period without fear of eviction. In the absence of secure land tenure, IDPs and other urban poor have no choice but to rely on a system At the same time, access to basic services should be of “gatekeepers”. IDPs settle on public or private improved through local government institutions. In lands known as “camps” or “settlements” which are doing so, IDPs and other vulnerable groups should both managed by informal settlement managers known as benefit by prioritizing areas that host a high number of “gatekeepers”. Taxation of IDPs is a lucrative income IDPs, returnees, and the urban poor. With international for many gatekeepers and some forcibly prevent IDPs assistance disproportionately focused on IDPs, it can from moving out of their settlements by mobilizing their lead to perceived inequity among the host communities, own militia. There have been cases where gatekeepers leading to social tension. The distributive impact of any committed grave human rights abuses,171 and they lack assistance should therefore extend uniformly across both upward and downward accountability.172 There is the two communities, instead of exclusively targeting no transparency in how they “price” their services, there one or the other. Such an equitable approach would are no minimum standards or code of ethics they need help mitigate any social tensions arising from perceived to comply with, and they can undermine the legitimacy or real preferential treatment of the IDPs over host of the local authorities. communities. Delivery of services should be planned and managed by the local government authorities to Physical safety, particularly those of women and children, build their service delivery capacity. remains one of the most prominent protection risks. Women and children make up an estimated 70 to 80 In the medium term (in the next 2-3 years), the assistance percent of the IDPs. About half of them are female-headed should have a broader focus to improve the urban households. These women and children are vulnerable resilience by investing in the most affected sectors such to sexual violence, harassment and forced prostitution, as housing, water and sanitation, health, education, as as they have limited social group protection, absence well as job creation in cities that have experienced and of male family members, and general lack of security are likely to experience large influx of IDPs. This should in IDP settlements. 170  ift Valley Institute (2017). “Land Matters in Mogadishu”. R 171 Human Rights Watch (2013). “Hostages of the Gatekeepers: Abuses against Internally Displaced in Mogadishu, Somalia”. 172 Ibid. Cross-cutting Sectors | 111 be done by strengthening the sub-national government’s ownership of the process. Once the immediate needs have been addressed, local governments, in collaboration with international development partners, CSOs and academia, should work to develop 3-5 year comprehensive spatial and investment plans to address the longer-term developmental needs in key services such as housing, water and sanitation, health and education and employment opportunities. Systematic spatial planning will prevent cities from turning into urban sprawls and help guide future investments to ensure cost-efficient investments, including job creation. Concurrently, support to strengthen the capacity of the sub-national government needs to take place so that they can fulfill their responsibility and be in the driver’s seat. Effective sub-national governance structure is not only instrumental in stabilization and institution-building but also for service delivery and resilience building. As such, the capacity of sub-national governments and their ability to generate own-source revenues need to be strengthened so that they can fulfill their responsibilities. In the longer-term (beyond 4 years), support should focus on three key areas: regulating service delivery; streamlining intergovernmental relations; and strengthening institutions related to land and housing. First, cities will need to define minimum standards for each sector and harmonize the quality of services provided by various actors. There is a need to ensure that all segments of the society are benefitting equally from the services. Second, division of functions and responsibilities between federal, regional, and local governments need to be clearly laid out and adhered to, to avoid redundancy and maximize the limited resources. Finally, support to craft key policies and systems is critical. These include inter alia development of national land/ urban development policy, reconstruction of national land cadaster and registry, national public land inventory, and national housing policy that not only considers the protracted displacement and urban poor, but also future rural-urban migration and population growth. Regarding target beneficiaries, it is important to design interventions that benefit all vulnerable groups to ensure equity. Rather than providing specific interventions targeted solely at IDPs, it would be important to provide more area-based, vulnerability-focused interventions that benefit all vulnerable groups and include certain activities that address IDPs’ specific needs. Recovery Strategy for the Sector With almost 20 percent of the Somali population affected by displacement, sustainable recovery, peace © IOM/Muse Mohammed and development in Somalia can only be ensured with 112 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment the integration of the displaced populations as an in the eyes of the people. The medium-term recovery integral part of the urban development strategy. Spatial needs should focus on implementation of the priority, development and investment planning will need to take area-based interventions listed above that will serve as a into account the migratory population and their dynamics catalyst for a longer-term, integrated program of urban with the host communities, and any interventions must support for economic development, including formal job benefit all groups in an equitable manner for long-term creation activities and key infrastructure development. stability. The planning should be community-driven to Mapping of and investing in connectivity gaps is ensure that their needs and voices are reflected. There another key part of this approach. In the long-term, is a need to seek consensus on this principle with Somali support should center on building local institutions for governments, as policies toward IDPs still vary widely sustainability. Strengthening local government capacity across different stakeholders. for spatial planning and investment planning is critical. A phased approach that distinguishes short and long- The assistance should use the existing government term perspectives is required. In the short-term the focus systems to help strengthen the government’s should be on the identification of priority areas such regulatory and oversight capacity. This can be done by as sites and services, provision of other basic services, government creating an overall regulatory environment undertaking the upstream work required to implement while exploring effective public-private partnership priority resilience focused investments and undertaking arrangements. Second, any assistance must be based in-depth analytical work that will inform the medium to on solid understanding of the local contexts and long-term priorities. The planning and management of dynamics so as not to exacerbate the tensions on the service delivery should be spearheaded by the local ground. Third, any planning process should be authorities to strengthen their capacity and legitimacy participatory and inclusive. Table 41: Summary Needs for Urban Development and Municipal Services Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Temporary shelters Regional X X 33,000,750 Permanent shelters Regional X X 61,018,100 Primary school construction Regional X X 4,787,980 Latrines Regional X X 1,443,100 School vouchers Regional X 22,869,411 Operating costs Regional X X 7,222,000 Mobile clinics Regional X 1,335,104 AWD/cholera treatment Regional X 480,000 Water trucks Regional X 2,855,230 Boreholes Regional X X 1,665,108 Sanitation Regional X X 4,296,751 Skill training and placement Regional X X 147,800,160 Capacity building for Regional X X 4,500,000 municipal government Total Urban Development and Municipal Services Needs 293,273,694 Cross-cutting Sectors | 113 Livelihoods and Employment aged 15-19 bear the greatest burden of unemployment, with estimates of 34.8 percent for males and 34.0 percent for females. If the lower figures are applied it means that I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions youth in Somalia are 1.6 times more likely to be openly The 2014 Population Estimation Survey for Somalia unemployed compared to adults. (PESS) estimated the population at 12.3 million. The mean age is 20 years, with 45 percent of the population When the open unemployed rate is combined with the below 15 years of age. Those under 15 have grown up underemployment average of 19.5 percent, it means in a period of instability, with limited opportunities for that 48 percent of youth are either unemployed, and/ working government institutions, education and training. or in low productive, low paying employment.175 From This poses a fundamental challenge to future workforce a human development perspective, this is an alarming development and employment creation in Somalia. figure, and when coupled with the fact that this group has historically been the main source of combatants Pre-Drought Labor Market in the various conflicts, the urgency to address youth unemployment is clear. Somalia’s labor market is overly dependent on the livestock sector, which provides employment to Education Skills and Employment approximately 60 percent of the workforce. The informal sector accounts for 40 percent of employment. There Somalia’s adult literacy rate is significantly below global is a high incidence of own account workers (OAW) and norms. More than 57.4 percent of Somalia’s children are contributory family workers (CFW), with these types of jobs not in formal schooling, and skill levels are low. Only 3 characterized by job insecurity, vulnerable employment, percent of males and 2 percent of females in urban areas low incomes, poor working conditions, atypical forms have had any form of formal vocational training.176 What of contracts, and non-existent occupational health and training has been provided is usually supply driven, of safety standards. For those who are employed there is a variable quality, and with weak linkages to the labor significant rate of underemployment (19 percent), which market. There are a number of training institutions and when combined with an open unemployment rate of 22 vocational training centers, often run by NGOs or as percent, implies that almost half of the work force are private establishments. There are however no national either unemployed or work in low paying jobs. or regional databases that can provide information on what type of courses are being offered, and no form of Somalia’s open unemployment rate of 22 percent certification. There are no active forums or mechanisms does not fully reflect the situation in the employment in which the demand side (private sector), the supply sector. This is because in the absence of any formal side (training providers), and the regulatory authority system of social protection, people cannot afford to (Government) engage with each other, and there is no be unemployed and must rely on a range of coping labor market information services. opportunities to survive.173 Whilst the age dependency ratio differs significantly across regions, for Somalia as Livelihoods a whole this is computed as 52.4 percent, implying that For the purpose of this exercise we have concentrated on every household member who is economically active the livestock sector (pastoralists and agro pastoralists), supports two dependents. Vulnerable employment and on employment in urban areas. maintains people in a state of sustainable poverty rather than providing the means by which they can lift Rural: According to the Food Security and Nutrition themselves out of poverty. Analysis Unit (FSNAU),177 there are 17 livelihoods zones associated with livestock and crops in Somalia, each of Youth Employment which has its own dynamic characteristics. Pastoralist A striking feature of Somalia’s labor profile is the high and agropastoralist communities have borne the brunt level of open unemployment amongst the youth. of the impact of the drought. They live a complex and Statistics are not entirely reliable, but show figures from vulnerable existence dependent on grazing with little as low as 22 percent to as high as 60 percent.174 Those access to social services such as education and health. It is estimated that 69% of Somalis live in poverty on an estimated income of USD 1.9 per day. Please see Annex for Labor Force Data (The data has 173  been abstracted from a Somali Labor Force Survey (confined to xx districts) carried out in 2014, A Labor Force Survey of Somaliland 2012 and various reports, articles, etc. 174 Statistics are not reliable, other sources (UNDP) refer to upwards of 60%. 175 UN Definition of youth; Those between ages 15 -24. Estimated at 26% of population according to UNFPA PESS. 176 Somali Labor Force Survey 2014. 177 Somalia Livelihood Profiles 2016 FSNAU/FEWSNET. 114 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM/Muse Mohammed Income from livestock comprises between 30-70 percent IDPs obtaining approximately 17 days of work per month of total income for agro pastoralists and pastoralists and settled households approximately 21 days per respectively. The remainder of their household income month.179 Although officially unemployment was stated is earned from a combination of casual labor, gifts at 22 percent, it is felt that this does not reflect the true and remittances, humanitarian assistance, charcoal employment rate, as high levels of underemployment production and firewood collection. This varies force many people to take on two or three part-time according to the livelihood zone and the relative jobs. Women rely on low skilled, low paying service jobs, ‘wealth classification’ of the household within that zone. including cleaning, washing, and child-care. They are Most households live on the verge of poverty, existing also heavily involved in petty trading. between the Livelihood Protection Threshold and the Household Survival Threshold.178 Poverty and lack of In spite of high unemployment and underemployment, alternative opportunities lead these communities to a labor survey in Mogadishu indicated there was over-exploit natural resources through overstocking and a demand for skilled labor across a number of overgrazing, and by charcoal production. This in turn sectors.180 These included construction, services sector, undermines the sustainability of the environment on telecommunications, finance, health services, garment which their livelihoods are dependent. sector, print and media, and hospitality services. Urban Labor Markets: The urban labor market is II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact characterized by low paid, irregular employment in the service and construction sectors. A survey carried Drought Effects out in Mogadishu in 2014 indicated that 57 percent of IDP households, and 27 percent of settled households The drought has exacerbated what was already a dire depended on casual labor as the main source of income. situation in relation to employment and livelihoods. In Underemployment was a feature across all sectors, with the crop and livestock sectors, it has damaged assets Using the Household Economy Analysis as applied by FSNAU. 178  Overview of Mogadishu and IDP Assessments, FSNAU 2014. 179  Africa Working Private Sector Market Scan Report, Mogadishu, Somalia September 2017. 180  Cross-cutting Sectors | 115 that were critical for the generation of household arrived populations. There is conflicting information incomes, and it will take several years to return to pre- and opinions in regard to daily labor rates for unskilled drought income levels. Jobs have been lost and incomes casual work. One would expect a decrease due to the reduced across value chains and businesses. At the additional competition for jobs, however data from same time, increased aid flows and increased investment FSNAU indicate that wages have remained steady.181 in urban areas such as Mogadishu have offset some of This is probably due to the increased aid flow, and these losses, and may be maintaining overall increased activity in construction and services sectors employment levels. due to the presence of UN, AMISOM, and other security and logistic companies. In the case of Mogadishu, it is As more people migrate to urban areas in search of also due to local and diaspora investment, particularly in jobs, services and humanitarian assistance, there is also the construction sector. a shift in employment type, from one based on a rural pastoralist agriculture economy to a more urban based An additional factor is the impact of humanitarian one. Whether this trend will continue is impossible to assistance, and particularly cash transfers that are determine, but a large proportion of those who have estimated at USD 40 million per month.182 While this is a moved are unlikely to return to their places of origin. very necessary intervention (providing incomes for those Unfortunately, the skill levels of those migrating to urban in need, injecting cash into markets, maintaining the areas is low, and the influx adds to urban underemployed demand for low paid casual labor, ensuring the incomes and the unskilled labor pool, increasing competition for of petty traders), the impact of this on the labor market unskilled jobs, adding to the levels of under employment and migration is unknown. The possibilities of people and increasing levels of household poverty. migrating to IDP camps to access cash transfers or other humanitarian assistance needs to be examined, and Combining the estimated numbers of pastoralists’ and further independent research is needed. agro pastoralist who have ceased their livelihood, with data on IDPs, humanitarian assessments and the loss of The paradox of unemployment in urban areas is that national GDP, it is estimated that the combined open in spite of high unemployment and underemployment unemployment rate is over 50 percent. Of those who are rates, there are skill shortages across many sectors employed the vast majority remain underemployed, with that are currently being filled by foreign workers. A 95 percent engaged in vulnerable and precarious forms combination of general skills shortages, clan affiliated of employment. recruitment systems and lack of labor market information perpetuates this situation. Effects of Drought on Urban Labor Market In the absence of data, it is impossible to determine the The impact of the drought on unemployment and direct impact of the drought alone. The biggest impact livelihoods in urban areas is complex, and in the has been on migration, the increased competition for absence of reliable data and restricted access, difficult unskilled work, and the structural changes from rural to to determine with any degree of certainty. Analysis of urban-based employment. the impact on the influx of one million largely unskilled people since November 2016 to IDP camps situated Effects of Drought on Infrastructure and Physical assets close to urban areas is complicated by the fact that they may have migrated as a result of drought, insecurity, The drought has reduced public revenues, and the desire to access services, (humanitarian assistance: decreased the capacity of local authorities to address cash transfers, water, health, and education) and most infrastructure needs. Whilst there is potential to create probably a combination of all three. short-term jobs in rehabilitating and providing new infrastructure, both urban and rural, there are serious In all cases the new arrivals add to an already bloated constraints and risks involved, particularly in urban areas pool of unskilled people seeking casual work. Interviews where there are contentious issues in regard to land title indicate that increased competition has added to the and ownership. There are many layers of vested interests rate of underemployment for both settled and newly and gate keepers, and many reports and examples that Regular  181  FSNAU updates usually comment on wage rates. Scaling Up CTP in Somalia: Reflecting on the 2017 Drought Response, Report from An Inter-Agency Reflection Workshop Report by CaLP,  182  September 2017. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/1508402389.2017-09%20-%20Somalia%20CTP%20in%20Drought%20 Reflection%20Rpt%20-%2 116 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment indicate that they have undue influence over issues is something that needs to be addressed within the such as the management of IDP camps, awarding context of the current efforts on institution- building. of contracts, and the identification of beneficiaries for humanitarian assistance. Unless these issues are Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities factored into the infrastructure plans, and steps taken to Decreasing livelihood opportunities has increased the neutralize their influence through the establishment of available pool of unskilled worked particularly in urban district authorities with some level of capacity to procure areas. This will lead to increased competition for unskilled and manage infrastructure investment, large-scale jobs and an increase in the levels of underemployment investment should be delayed and/or linked to progress and vulnerable employment. As a result, there may an be in establishing appropriate local institutions.183 In the increase in inter and intra community tensions. There has roads and environmental sectors in Somaliland and also been an increase in the number of female-headed Puntland this has already been achieved, and investment households as men migrate to seek employment. in infrastructure in these regions would be appropriate. Unsubstantiated reports have been received in regard to For other areas, it is felt that the risks involved are too increases in child labor. Rangelands have been depleted high, and large-scale investment in urban areas could and are more fragile, further increasing its vulnerability act as a pull factor, further accelerating urbanization and to flooding and drought. potentially acting as a trigger for further conflict. Effects on Governance Damage and Losses For decades, a large proportion of the Somali population The drought has exacerbated what was already a dire has been dependent on aid and humanitarian assistance. situation in relation to employment and livelihoods. In Most if not all has by necessity been provided through the livestock sector, it has damaged assets that were UN agencies and NGOs. One of the side effects critical for the generation of household incomes. It will of humanitarian assistance is that the population take a number of years to return to the pre-drought increasingly views the external actors as the de facto income levels. Jobs and incomes in related value chains main service providers, in effect a parallel system of have also been reduced. Combining the estimated government next to an under resourced, sometimes numbers of pastoralists’ and agro pastoralists who have predatory and poorly functioning administration. The ceased their livelihood, with data on IDPs, humanitarian drought has forced more people to become dependent assessments and the loss of national GDP it is estimated on humanitarian assistance, further weakening the that the combined open unemployment rate is over perception of the relevance of state institutions. This 50 percent of those who are employed, and the vast majority are underemployed. Table 42: Estimated Direct Losses in the Livestock Sector184 Estimated Loss Household Type Pastoralist Agro/Pastoralists Number of Livelihoods Affected 487,591 479,832 Total income losses (milk sales and animal USD 609,495,380 USD 262,376,953 sales), using standard off take rates Estimated work days lost based on 3 USD USD 203,165,127 USD 87,458,984 per day (indicating future losses from decreased assets that generate jobs). Number of jobs lost (extrapolated 450,000 350,000 from FSNAU reports).  The 183  Joint Programme for Local Government, supports the establishment and capacity building of local district authorities so as they can act as civil authorities and accountable primary service providers to their constituents. This is drawn from livestock losses and FSNAU/FEWSNET assessments.  184  Cross-cutting Sectors | 117 The Drought Impact (Economic and Social Impact) The Aggregate Economic and Human Development Impact on the Employment and Livelihoods sector On a macro-level, the drought has severely reduced incomes for pastoralists and agro pastoralists. As a result, it is probable that all those classified as poor according to the FSNAU HEA have been forced to abandon their livelihoods. Similarly, perhaps 80 percent of ‘better off’ and 50 percent of agro-pastoralists have also had to abandon their livelihoods.185 This represents a loss of an estimated 250 million workdays of employment, adding to the current high unemployment rate, and reducing upstream and downstream employment and livelihood opportunities. Internal migration to urban areas in search of unskilled casual work has increased. This has had a downward trend on wage for unskilled workers, further increasing the informality and precarious nature of the labor market. In urban areas, and specifically in IDPs camps where households may be dependent on casual labor for 60 percent of their household income needs, this is forcing more households into poverty. For those that remain in the rural areas, they are increasingly dependent on humanitarian aid and will continue to do so until their livestock and other assets have been restored. Women who dominate some livestock related value chains have been disproportionally affected. There has also been an increase in the number of female-headed households as men migrate in search of work. The drought has also had a significant impact in changing the nature of employment to one associated with an urbanized society. This has implications in regard to education and skills that need to be addressed through significant and innovative investment in education, vocational training and skills development. The Medium to Long Term Projections on the Employment and Livelihoods Sector and Impact on Development Goals Given the current political, economic and security environment, the outlook is not positive. While it may be possible to recover assets and restore incomes in the livestock sector, it will still be vulnerable to variable climate conditions. The over-dependency of the economy on primary production of livestock has to be addressed through diversification, processing and investment in areas that will generate higher value jobs. Whilst there has been a significant increase in humanitarian aid, © UNDP Somalia greater and longer-term predictable investment by the Below the survival threshold according to HEA methodology.  185  118 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment international community in development assistance is The design of the recovery efforts should therefore required, thus building a strategic, long-term approach attempt to address the vulnerability aspects of women to employment and development, including skills enterprises by supporting women entrepreneurs development for a young workforce. At the same time the across all sectors through organisation of associations, government will need to address policy and regulatory cooperatives, and networks, etc., and to strengthen framework issues. The security situation will ultimately their resilience through solidarity, self-support, and determine whether these efforts can be sustained. training. In addition, women entrepreneurship and participation can be supported in nontraditional sectors Major Challenges for the Sector or occupations with growth potential which are less vulnerable to fluctuations in weather, external markets There are a number of challenges, many of which are and natural disasters. referenced in earlier parts of this sector. These include: Youth Employment: Youth face additional challenges in The lack of national policy and capacity to enable • accessing employment, with dissatisfied youths posing government to lead and coordinate investments threats to peace. Additional measures must be taken and activities to promote employment and in terms of education, skills development, labor market livelihood creation. information services, entrepreneurship and finance An over reliance on production of livestock, and • if the backlog and vast deficiencies in their education lack of value addition industries. and skills is to be addressed. Innovative approaches are • The lack of policy and regulatory framework in needed, linking immediate temporary employment with the energy sector, and high energy costs, low access to literacy and numeracy training, together with accessibility, and dependency on biomass. attachments to the private sector, entrepreneurship, business development, innovation in the way skills/ Cultural preferences that restrict the potential of • vocational training is designed and delivered. fisheries as a long-term source of employment and livelihoods. The need for coordination by government through • Low levels of skills, with a lack of synergy in the adoption and application of policies, guidelines vocational training and labor markets. standards, etc. by all of those involved in this sector will be necessary before any significant investments by • Low levels of education and low literacy rates. development partners can be justified. This should be a • Lack of merit-based hiring in both public and key outcome of the recovery plan. private sectors. Social Protection and Safety Nets: In the absence of • Social exclusion of women. a formal social protection system, more people are • Continuous insecurity and threat of violence dependent on humanitarian assistance. Cash for work and conflict. and cash transfers are being utilized by a number of humanitarian agencies. A working group, the Cash III. Cross-cutting Considerations Working Group, (CWG) has been established that consists of those agencies and NGOs implementing Gender: Women have been disproportionally affected initiatives. There is to date no government involvement by the drought. It is estimated that women constitute in the proceedings, and it is important that government 60-80 percent of domestic meat trade, milk trade, should gradually play a more substantive role. hides and skins, and petty trade (kiosks).186 These are precarious occupations and dependent on livestock. Natural Resources and Energy: The issue of charcoal Capital investment in all of these occupations is minimal. production and the rehabilitation and management As the livestock sector recovers, many will recommence of rangeland needs to be addressed if any degree their enterprises without external assistance. It may of sustainability is to be built into the recovery of the be better to avoid the well-trodden path of credit and livestock sector. In spite of numerous export bans over access to finance in attempting to reestablish vulnerable the past thirty years a thriving export business still women in occupations /livelihoods which as the recent continues. The overreliance on biomass as a source of drought has demonstrated are themselves high risk energy needs also to be addressed. and vulnerable. The  186  Somaliland Livestock Value Chain Analysis A Proposal for Livestock Value Chain Development in Somaliland. Dr Alfred Muthee, 16th January 2012. Cross-cutting Sectors | 119 Rehabilitation works, including reforestation, Medium Term Recovery Strategies improvement of water harvesting, and erosion control can provide a large number of short, medium and long The dire humanitarian situation which has been a term employment opportunities. Experience elsewhere feature of Somalia for almost 30 years is testament to in Somalia indicates that this work is particularly suitable the need to prioritize employment and livelihoods if and most appropriate for a community contracting type this humanitarian cycle is to be broken and economic of approach that ensures ownership and the long-term recovery occurs. Doing so will require a paradigm shift stewardship of the environment. Excellent examples that recognizes and supports the ongoing state building have already been implemented in Somaliland and efforts, appreciates the operational constraints, and Puntland187 and these can be expanded and replicated recognizes the potential and limitations of both public throughout the country. and private sectors. In addition, efforts must be made to develop the The recovery process should be used to strengthen renewable energy sector which has the potential to government institutions at all levels and build their involve women and youth and also to provide power credibility with their constituents. Increased public- sources to sectors which are currently under developed private partnership dialogue is needed to assist because of energy deficit and/or high costs. government, sectorial stakeholders, private producers, farmers groups, cooperatives, trade unions, etc, to more proactively engage with each other to develop a IV. Recovery Needs common vision that will allow them to design, plan and Whilst livelihoods will continue to be the most important implement livelihoods, employment and vocational productive sector for the foreseeable future, the long- training strategies and interventions that will be demand term dependence on livestock (particularly live exports) driven, economically viable, producing decent jobs must be reduced, and efforts focused towards other and livelihoods and enhancing equitable and inclusive sectors. Livelihoods interventions should take into growth and development. account the changing economic model in Somalia and Lastly, increasing access to finance will be key to align with the demographic shifts in urban and rural developing more sustainable jobs including financial areas. The transitions in the rural economy towards a support for small and medium businesses to develop. modernized agricultural sector will require increased This should be done in two parallel tracks; firstly, skills in industries along the value chain as well as targeting businesses in specific sectors critical for water shed management. Sectors in the urban areas recovery and humanitarian aid delivery (such as such as construction and logistics could potentially logistics and construction) that can provide livelihoods provide livelihoods opportunities therefore training and employment in the near term, and secondly, by and skills training in this sector should be linked to supporting the financial sector to diversify and provide infrastructure investment activities. Other sectors that financial products to small and medium sized businesses. have the potential to contribute to a diversification The latter will depend on a minimum level of regulation of the economy include coastal fishing and social and policy and the ability of the Central Bank of Somalia sectors, building on the investments in social sectors to engage with the financial sector. that come through humanitarian interventions and building on this foundation to work towards a more Recovery Needs skilled local workforce. Employment creation: Continue to create short-term Short Term Recovery Strategies employment by using existing cash for work, promoting the concept of decent work with standard contracts of It is necessary to continue to support and expand the employment, and appropriate occupational health and various short term employment and livelihood support safety standards. to affected communities through initiatives such as cash for work, cash transfers, and livestock support to Institutional: The success, resilience and sustainability pastoralists, that are currently being implemented by of the RRF will be dependent on effective coordination, UN, NGOs etc. It is proposed that the government leadership, management, ownership and oversight by initiates dialogue with those implementers to develop a the Somali authorities. They are not now in a position common set of systems based on the best documented to fulfill that role. Technical support is required, and practices with a view to the responsibility for the the recovery process must be used to support the implementation of these programs being assumed by institution-building efforts. government authorities. Puntland Ministry of Environment and UNDP.2016 / Somaliland ILO, 2003, IFAD 2013.  187  120 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment To ensure the centrality of employment throughout nature of employment has and will continue to change all government planning it is recommended that an from that of a rural agricultural to one associated with employment specialist is embedded in The Ministry an urbanized society. This has implications in regard to of Planning, Investment and Economic Development education and skills that need to be addressed through (MoPIED) to advise and support government in significant and innovative investment in education, mainstreaming employment and concepts of vocational training and skills development. decent work into all government and sectoral development plans. A national vocational training and skills development plan needs to be developed. This will be the first step in There is also a need for more engagement between revamping the technical, vocational education, training Government, the private sector, producer groups, trade and skills development system. The involvement of unions, and development partners through improved the private sector to ensure that skills development public private dialogue which can be facilitated through is demand driven and of high quality will be critical an enhanced form of “tripartism”. to the recovery and resilience process. This needs to commence as soon as possible. Strengthened labor information and employment services: It is recommended that labor market The resilience of Somali primary producers, petty information and employment services be established in traders, small businesses can be enhanced through 6 major urban areas over the five-year period. support to them to organize into producers associations, cooperatives, etc. It is also a means by which some of the Social Protection: Maintain and expand if necessary inequitable power dynamics within sectors that maintain existing social protection through cash transfers using the vulnerability of the primary producers and small existing implementation agencies. Building on the businesses may be addressed. progress already made and with external independent technical facilitation188 develop with government, Women: Support women in business but avoid implementers and development partners a social the small grant retail kiosk model as a means of protection policy, strategy and appropriate mechanisms economic empowerment. Instead support women to that will form part of a national social protection system organize, network, and strengthen producer groups, to allow the government to begin to assume a degree of associations, cooperatives etc., so that they can increase oversight and responsibility. productivity to improve returns on labor and capital and enhance resilience. Examine other sectors and Education and skills: There needs to be significant nontraditional occupations such as renewable energy, investment in education and skills development. The communications etc. Table 43: Summary Needs for Livelihoods and Employment Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Support to women and youth to Regional X X X 20,000,000 engage in key economic sectors Support to Govt. Institutions to Regional X X X 1,900,000 improve and/or establish Labor Market Information Services Support to FGS and Federal Regional X X X 200,000 State Govts to coordinate the E&L sector Total Livelihoods and Employment Needs 22,100,000  This 188  should be from a specialized agency that is not involved in the implementation of the ongoing cash transfers, cash for work, food distribution initiatives. Cross-cutting Sectors | 121 Social Protection and Safety Nets including the various types of traditional community assistance in Somalia, some based on reciprocal support between neighbors, others on circulation of animals I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions and other assets. Diaspora remittances are central Social protection can be defined in different ways, and to Somalia’s economy, providing a lifeline to large there are a variety of approaches taken in different segments of the population. Remittances are estimated contexts and by different groups. In Somalia, social at between USD 1.2 and USD 2 billion today, equivalent protection was defined by the government in 2015 by to 23 to 38 percent of GDP.191 Remittances as a source of the Social Protection Sub-Working Group under Peace income have been important in cushioning household and State Building Goal 5 (PSG5), as Government- consumption by creating a buffer against shocks led policies and programs which address predictable (drought, trade bans, inter-clan warfare). The remittances needs throughout the life cycle in order to protect all fund direct consumption, including education and groups, and particularly the poor and vulnerable, against health, and some investment, mostly in residential shocks, help them to manage risks, and provide them construction. Informal systems are however stretched in with opportunities to overcome poverty, vulnerability, an environment of concurrent shocks and widespread and exclusion. By addressing the root causes of poverty. There are also many vulnerable families that are poverty, risk, and vulnerability, social protection is not reached by them, as this community social assistance expected to contribute to poverty reduction, social tends to be given along kinship and clan lines meaning cohesion and inclusion, and economic growth as part those new to the area (such as displaced households), of a cost-effective, sustainable, and comprehensive minorities and the marginalized often do not receive it.192 national system.189 Social Protection definitions can also be found within the World Bank, and other Humanitarian and development actors have also played development partners.190 a role in filling the space of some safety nets. Resilience programming underway in Somalia has aspects of safety There was no formal social protection system operating net support, some basic service provision programming in Somalia between 2013-2015 prior to the current includes conditional transfers (both cash and in-kind) crisis, including no government-led safety nets. The as incentives. There is also significant investment in the government of Somalia was committed however to the case of development actors working with and supporting development of social protection before the current local and federal government in the building up of crisis. There was general recognition of the need for accessible basic services. This includes: education where social protection in Somalia, supported by the fact that infrastructure, governance, curriculum, and incentivized the 2010/2011 famine occurred despite the humanitarian transfers such as school feeding, take home rations, community working for more than 20 years in the country. and school grants are utilized; water and sanitation; The scale of the current crisis further supports the strong health, including infrastructure, training, maternal rationale for establishing long term and predictable health, and immunization drives; nutrition, with large social protection that will help address chronic poverty numbers of community workers trained, and assistance and vulnerability in Somalia, moving away from the for moderate and severe acute malnutrition (MAM & recurrent cycles of humanitarian support alone. SAM), among others.193 In the case of shocks, including seasonal shocks that impact on livelihoods and food The current social protection gap in Somalia has been consumption, humanitarian assistance has historically partially (though inadequately) filled both before and stepped in, including during the current crisis. during the crisis by the strong informal systems of support,  PSG5 189  Social Protection SWG “Somalia Social Protection Definition and Concept Note November 2015”  The World Bank definition is “Policies, projects and programs to reduce social and economic risks and vulnerability caused by conflict, climate, 190  poverty, food insecurity, lack of education and health services, gender inequality, and age, and to promote resilience through appropriate, predictable, and reliable interventions in income and food security for a population that is defined by pastoralism but rapidly urbanizing and mainly young.“ World Bank estimates, August 2018  191  UNICEF 2014 Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Three Zones of Somalia  192  See relevant sector reports for more information on service provision both before and during the drought.  193  122 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact 2017 cash assistance per month is delivered through the food security cluster with the objective of meeting The speed and scale of the humanitarian response to food security needs. The remaining portion of cash the drought, improved access across the country and assistance is used to meet other needs such as water improved institutional capacity has helped prevent and sanitation, shelter, education and protection needs. famine and the loss of life at the scale that occurred in The assistance is delivered as cash or as vouchers, 2011; however the vulnerability of households to the and through various transfer mechanisms, including shock, and subsequent impact shows that longer-term electronic payment cards, mobile money or cash-in- resilience has not been achieved in the years since the hand. The data shows that throughout the response, last crisis. While emergency short-term interventions about half of the beneficiaries have been reached activated during acute shocks such as the current with restricted cash (primarily vouchers for food or drought play an important role in lifesaving, they cannot water purchases) and about half with unrestricted cash be considered safety nets. The presence of shock (meaning that no restrictions are made on how the responsive social protection systems, including social transfer is spent). The data furthermore shows that the transfers to vulnerable families could have reduced or vast majority of cash delivered during the response has mitigated the negative impact of the current drought been unconditional, meaning that the transfers are made and further allowed households to invest in their future without any requirements of beneficiaries undertaking and better manage risks. work, training or other as a precondition to receive the The humanitarian response does, however, demonstrate assistance (more than 90 percent of the beneficiaries that cash transfers to vulnerable households at scale is in the months of reporting). However, for August 2017, possible in Somalia. Cash assistance has been used in the data shows some increase in conditional cash (up humanitarian response in Somalia since 2003. During the to around 20 percent), primarily through cash-for-work 2017 drought response, the use of cash as a modality schemes. Some innovative cash approaches have as well has significantly scaled up, reaching up to three million been introduced as a response to the drought such as individuals each month. Somalia has some unique Cash+; combining cash transfers with productive inputs characteristics which make cash-based interventions (seeds), thus enhancing the livelihoods and productive particularly appropriate. First, Somalia is dependent on capacities of poor and vulnerable households. food imports to meet its food needs and as such has Transfer values vary quite substantially and according developed extensive and robust markets to address to the objective of the assistance and to the delivery demand even in the face of local production shortages. location, but have tended to average around 100 USD/ Moreover, on-going conflict continues to constrain household.195 The total amount transferred has been access in many parts of the country, limiting road transport and the reach of traditional in-kind assistance. upwards of 40 million USD per month, at the height of Finally, relatively quick to operationalize, cash assistance the response. has not only played important life-saving and livelihood Post distribution monitoring suggests that recipients preserving roles, but has also helped to stimulate of cash spend the large share (one large study reports markets during time times of crisis. approximately 75 percent) of the money received From March 2017, systematic data on cash programs on food needs, and a smaller portion on other needs has been collected through the monthly cluster 3Ws.194 including water, paying off short term debt, to buy household items or to access healthcare.196 The data shows that between 75-85 percent of the The  194  3W (who-does-what-where) matrix is filled out on a monthly basis by the sectoral clusters and include information on all interventions reported on by cluster partners. Since March 2017, questions in the 3W matrix include how many beneficiaries were reached with cash, transfer amounts, conditionalities and restriction. OCHA extracts and compiles the data specifically on cash and produces monthly overviews. The data provides a good overview over cash programming across sectors, but will naturally be limited by the accuracy and timeliness of the data shared by partners. The CWG has been working on harmonization, looking in particular at the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB). This is a common method of  195  quantifying basic needs in humanitarian response as per the SPHERE standards. Whilst humanitarian standards for transfer values are not generally the basis for longer-term social transfers, there are lessons that can be learned from the experience of common approaches. The inter-agency Cash Working Group (CWG), which started meeting in February 2017, provides a forum for agencies engaged in cash assistance to 196  engage, share learning and coordinate activities. The CWG provides guidance on transfer values, produces a monthly markets dashboard, discusses cash-related M&E and risk management, and engages with mobile money providers. Cross-cutting Sectors | 123 Drought Effects Effects on Infrastructure and Physical assets As mentioned, in the absence of reliable and long-term The extensive impact of the drought on agriculture and government-led support to the vulnerable in Somalia, livestock has impacted overall levels of vulnerability and social protection as a sector does not exist formally. The led to negative coping strategies, including sale of assets. bulk of the assistance provided is project based and has The impact of livestock loss meant that communities lost been scaled up in the aftermath of the drought through a source of livelihood and will thus have limited self- UN agencies and NGOs. The humanitarian response recovery capacities in future. More information on this in Somalia filled the role of shock responsive safety can be found in the relevant sector chapters. nets, with smaller scale conditional transfers designed to build access to basic services, and some resilience Effects on Production of Goods and Services and programming also contributing here. However, funding Access to Goods and Services for these programs is often short-term in nature, and the absence of reliable response beyond the humanitarian The impact of the drought in particular on livelihoods phase with a clear national operating institution for and rising prices of staple foods has led to negative social protection limits gains that can be made beyond coping strategies in the absence of shock responsive short-term assistance. social protection. As stated earlier, the humanitarian response looked to assist households where needs were The biggest impact of the drought on the social identified; however households did not have access to protection sector in the absence of formal systems preventative and protective safety nets that could have and safety nets, is then the numbers and nature of seen a significantly smaller number of households in vulnerability. Vulnerability to shocks and stresses can be need of life-saving humanitarian support. Families were both economic (being in poverty/at risk of falling into instead forced to resort to strategies such as reduction poverty) and social (lack of autonomy, discrimination of food consumption and food diversity, buying food on and marginalization),197 and compounding shocks credit, selling their livestock and other productive assets, occurring before households have had the ability and migration to urban parts of the country. Other more to recover their capacity to manage them, further dire coping strategies such as child marriage and child increases this vulnerability. Significant segments of the labor have been witnessed in the aftermath of the Somali population are economically and/or socially drought as well. vulnerable to shocks such as the current drought. Specific vulnerabilities are identified and discussed further in the section on Recovery Needs, Prioritization of Needs and Population Groups. UNICEF 2014 Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Three Zones of Somalia  197  124 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Effects on Governance and Decision Making Processes prerogatives which vary and cannot provide a consistent means to equitably and ethically identify recipients Due to the humanitarian needs arising from the severe nor provide consistent forms of assistance. There are drought that hit Somalia, and the fact that cash was the also large numbers of very poor who face many of the chosen modality of humanitarian response by many same problems but require different forms of assistance. actors, the Cash Working Group resumed in February This group is classified as a humanitarian caseload and 2017 after a period of inactivity. The CWG acted as a on that basis receive relief, yet they require economic coordinating body, with the main goal being to provide support and technical assistance to establish new forms support to the drought response by using cash based of income or livelihoods or to re-establish viable forms of assistance (where appropriate) and to streamline the farming or livestock keeping. design, development and implementation of cash based interventions. The group focuses on improving Somalia must strategically build on the significant operational efficiency and effectiveness through humanitarian efforts invested. There is an opportunity to collaborative planning and coordination. make use of the innovative approaches that are already in place helping the most vulnerable. Cash transfers are The CWG is not a government led body, nor does one form of social transfer that can be transformed from it involve government in its coordination processes. the current aid narrative to predictable direct transfers However, there are lessons from this experience that to households. Other transfers, including in-kind can be taken forward. The government has recently support to those access basic services are also being established the Disaster Preparedness, Food Security successfully implemented. The lessons and experience & Nutrition, and Social Protection Sub-Working Group of new and innovative approaches, including CASH+ under the Resilience Pillar Working Group. This will (productive and social dimensions) approaches that be the official body for coordination with government combine cash transfers with other key inputs or services, moving forward. The sub-working group can take many will be important in the development of and support lessons from the success of the CWG in coordination. to government in social protection, and in particular in realizing its potential in alleviating poverty and Major Challenges for the Sector building resilience. These include, weak government capacity to collect Translating political will into practical implementation revenue, manage disasters, lack of an established will require the continuous support of UN, World financial sector, lack of systems for information collection Bank, and other partners to build the foundational (registration) and capability to transfer funds to citizens, systems to adopt a policy framework in order to as well as private sector regulation (or lack of) including establish formalized social protection in Somalia. mobile banking. Government and partners are aware of the need to link Understanding what social protection is and what it will the largely short-term humanitarian support currently look like, as well as prioritizing social protection system provided, with longer-term developmental aims and development, and securing the long-term predictable approaches. This is an area in which the development funding required to do so with so many competing of social protection systems can play an important role, priorities including security, and justice is, and will particularly considering the significant and successful continue to be, a challenge for the sector. use of cash transfers in emergency response over recent years. The government in collaboration with partners, is As there is no formal public or private social protection already taking strong steps in this direction which must in place in Somalia, damage and loss in these areas be supported, including work focusing on developing cannot be captured. both policy and institutional frameworks, developing strategies to reach vulnerable populations, and the social protection priorities laid out in the National III. Recovery Needs Development Plan 2017-2019. At the same time the The multiple and compounding nature of the shocks government is aware of the limitations and challenges in Somalia and their impact on people’s livelihoods they face through this process. There will continue to have required repeated and increasing efforts by the be a need for humanitarian and development partners international and national community to respond. to assist in filling gaps through the short to medium Somalia has been in a state of crisis for the past 20 term in particular with steps taken to build and improve years and has been receiving humanitarian assistance government ownership, leadership, and coordination of that averages around USD 1 billion per year. However social protection measures. humanitarian assistance is driven by humanitarian Cross-cutting Sectors | 125 Recovery Needs, Prioritization of Needs and demographic groups in different ways and to greater or Population Groups lesser degrees). They include weather events, such as the current drought, political events and macroeconomic There are a number of population groups that are of events such as inflation. A person or households capacity priority due to the nature of their vulnerability when to manage these risks is influenced by their access to (and considering social protection development in Somalia. return on) productive assets (such as labor and access to Vulnerability can generally be defined as peoples’ credit or inputs), services and social networks.198 exposure to risks, and their capacity to manage those risks. Risks can be idiosyncratic or covariate in nature. A number of groups in Somalia are more vulnerable either Idiosyncratic risks are those experienced at the individual in their exposure to risk, or their ability to manage it. They or households level relating to family circumstances and are particularly important to identify by vulnerability as lifecycle events, with localized impacts. These correlate it relates to particular and clearly identifiable groups in very clearly with a person’s lifecycle and socio-cultural the population, rather than by poverty since such a large norms. Covariate risks relate to those experienced on a percentage of the community can be considered poor.199 wider scale, with effects felt by communities or whole These groups include: populations (though affecting different households and Table 44: Characteristics of Vulnerability Vulnerable Group Characteristics of Vulnerability Percentages of Population Children, particularly Children are disproportionally affected by poverty, and Children as % of total population; orphaned or child are overrepresented amongst the poor.200 Children in (age<14) 34% headed households Somalia are exposed to health risks, malnutrition, abuse and exploitation, child marriage, forced % of households with children recruitment, and trafficking. Children of vulnerable under 5; 61% households are also pulled out of school to help with chores (collection of water, fuelwood, tending livestock) or earning income (working).201 Children are exposed to further dangers when families are forced to move due to the drought. Elderly, disabled Faced with difficult conditions: often traveling to Elderly as % of total population; and family members receive health services, earning an income or moving (65+) 5% who are ill to escape drought or conflict situation exposes them Disabled as % of total to additional dangers to health and safety. These population; 28% groups are often limited in their ability to use technology, impeding their access to timely information. Sometimes families are forced to separate leaving these vulnerable members at home. Ethnic minorities Including groups such as the Bantu, Gabooye, Data not collected Rahanwayne, and Digile Mirfle, ethnic minorities are systematically discriminated against in all stages of assistance. Since many of them are already very poor and very vulnerable during shocks, the lack of social networks to receive charity and relatives to remittances from abroad. Moreover limited or blocked access to resources for farming, water, and grazing lands can further impede these and other minorities to be able to survive during droughts. Other urban groups such as blacksmiths and urban livelihoods, those living in dis- placement may not have the social networks to enable them to borrow or receive charity and could further worsen their situation.202 Ibid 198  199  Ibid. 200  World Bank 2016, Somali Poverty Profile  201   Somalia National Development Plan 2017-2019 202  Ibid. 126 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Pastoralists Those that have not diversified their sources of income can be devastated particularly when their animals graze for both water and pasture. Droughts can ravage rangelands and threaten traditional sources of water (water catchments). In this drought, up to 60 percent of herds were destroyed in certain parts of the country (North, Central). Often many livestock die before they are sold at far below market rates, and pastoralists often have few assets besides their livestock. The high rates of mobility among pastoralists also limits their access to schools and other basic services.203 Internally Displaced IDPs see a breakdown in their social networks when IDPs as % of total population 34% Persons they are displaced and can no longer access informal community based mechanisms of support. In addition, many IDPs are in a situation of protracted displacement with established gatekeepers controlling access to assistance. In IDP settlements, there are often separated families, with an over-representation of women, children, elderly and minorities. There are high numbers of GBV incidents, high rates of child labor, as well as a dependence on assistance to meet basic needs in IDP camps. IDPs are more food insecure and a higher percentage lack access to latrines, vaccination and other health services, education, protection, safe drinking water and permanent shelter. Women Women face very difficult circumstances and inequality Women as % of total across all areas, from access to justice, representation population; 61.3% in government, financing, health and mortality Female headed households; 23% indicators, and have been exposed to sexual assault and domestic violence while being displaced due to the drought and conflict. Women in Somalia have lower levels of literacy, reduced access to assistance, restrictions on movement, and low access to training. Youth Poverty excludes many young people from education, Youth as percent of total at a time when their future and the country‘s population (age 14-24) 26% development requires an educated population and labor force. Young people, many of whom had been excluded from education themselves, are increasingly drawn to urban life but do not have the skill or cannot find the jobs they need. Young men are exclude from informal community based mechanisms.204 The extreme poor While a large percentage of the Somali community can Multidimensional poverty: be considered very poor, the extreme poor are further (urban households only) constrained by an access to basic services coverage •% of population without poorer than for the general population. Basic services access to education; 44% are available by private providers which may be too •% of population with no expensive or not available to the very poor. NGOs, access to health services; 51.9% whose programs often focus on the poorest, struggle •% of population with no to provide the coverage, continuity or range of services access to clean water 42.9% required by the very poor due to security constraints or dependence on short-term, humanitarian funding.  The 203  evaluation of IDP settlements have been conducted by REACH in partnership with OCHA and the ICCG. Reports on various IDP settlements can be found here:www.reachresourcecentre.org, www.humanitarianresponse.info, www.reliefweb.org and data.humdata.org UNICEF 2014 Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Three Zones of Somalia  204  Cross-cutting Sectors | 127 Life Cycle Risks in Somalia205 From a Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) perspective, social protection and safety net programs (including Large segments of the population are also vulnerable those utilizing cash, cash for work and cash plus) can to particular life cycle risks, as can be seen in the play a significant role in minimizing negative coping diagram below. Covariate shocks such as the current strategies that further exacerbate climate-related drought compound upon these, and increase the shocks, and in mitigating the overall negative economic vulnerability to risk of certain groups (many of which are impacts of shocks. identified in Table 44). Needs and Actions Climate and Disaster Risk Reduction The needs during and following the current drought Since Somalia will be experiencing rainfalls lower than the from a social protection perspective center in the short- average in the future, the recovery strategy must focus term around the transition of vulnerable households on building resilience in individuals and communities from humanitarian assistance to more predictable safety through predictable social protection, enabling them nets where appropriate, and critically the establishment to better manage climate and other shocks. This entails of formalized shock-responsive social protection identifying sources of vulnerability and then ensuring systems and programs that can lessen the overall impact that vulnerable populations have access to safety nets of future shocks through playing a critical protective and – whether traditional or formal – to protect themselves preventative role. against shocks and risks. Ibid. 205  128 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Short-term (Year 1) Immediate action in 2018 must focus on the building of capacity within the FGS to develop and manage social protection. This includes the development of a draft social protection policy and management framework (including management and implementation arrangements), research and analysis for the development of targeting and registration systems, testing of mechanisms for management and delivery, and the building of in-house capacity in particular in the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, and the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development, who are the leads in social protection and coordination between ministries and regional administrations respectively. At the same time, conversations and coordination with humanitarian actors must continue on appropriate methods for transition from short-term humanitarian transfers, to predictable transfers that support livelihoods and access to basic services for vulnerable households who require longer-term support. Medium-term (Years 2-3) The medium-term needs for the social protection sector, include a continuation of the work established in 2018, with the addition of the following key pieces for support. The piloting of potential safety net models with key vulnerable groups should also take place to build an evidence base for investment in larger scale social transfers under a national social protection system. Key actions • Development of a single registry and national identification systems Engagement with Public Financial Management (PFM), building short to long-term goals for investment • into social protection • Continued capacity development activities for the FGS and FMS to manage and deliver services Establishment of government regulations for private sector investment, particularly in key sector such • as telecommunications, insurance and risk products and mobile banking Identification of priority safety net programs and support to development (including where possible, •  piloting for proof of concept)  Taken 206  from the presentation of Minister Maryam Qasim to the Social Protection in Contexts of Fragility and Forced Displacement Conference on September 28 2017. Cross-cutting Sectors | 129 © IOM/Muse Mohammed Long-term (Years 4+) The clearest entry point for the development of social protection in Somalia in meeting the needs of the current drought, and in building the resilience of vulnerable populations to future shocks, is in the design of effective government-led social transfers. This is the focus of the short and medium-term needs identified. However, in order to meet the government’s longer-term goal of a comprehensive social protection system in Somalia, action will also be required to develop appropriate social insurance, social legislation, and equitable access to services.207 Whilst the latter is represented in the plans of social service sectors, social legislation and insurance will also need to be considered. Table 45: Summary Needs for Social Protection and Safety Nets Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Injection of minimum capacity National/State X X 168,000 in MoHADM and MoPIED Social Protection policy and National X 1,515,000 framework, vulnerability analysis, capacity development of Government, communication strategy Database inventory and analysis National X 100,000 Design of pilot incl. registry, National X 5,000,000 targeting methodology, transfer systems, monitoring systems, grievance mechanism, vetting Pilot of system in select National/ X 6,400,000 geographic areas (incl. urban Regional and rural) targeting 100,000 Total Social Protection and Safety Nets Needs 13,183,000 UNICEF 2014 Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Three Zones of Somalia  207  130 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Gender relatives, and due to limitations to women’s inheritance rights as well as limited access to skills training and markets, widows and female-headed households are I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions particularly vulnerable. Somalia’s patriarchal society is organized and managed along the clan system with entrenched discriminatory Given that the majority of Somali population relies social structures perpetuating gender inequality. extensively on the pastoral livestock production system, Despite the dynamic role women have historically the drought has had a devastating effect on communities. played in Somali society as community mobilizers Women, due to pre-existing inequalities, are particularly and peace-builders, the clan system ascribes women affected. In pastoralist and agropastoralist communities with inferior social status and contributes to women’s women oversee the overall maintenance of the pastoral exclusion from political and public decision-making fora. system and are responsible for smaller livestock and sale Men are traditionally identified as protectors of family for consumption, while men manage larger livestock security, as primary breadwinners, and as the central and sale for export. Women also dominate production decision-makers in both public and private settings.208 of local vegetables, milk and cereals and local Gender disparities are stark across socio-economic and marketing. Furthermore, women are responsible for human development indicators with a Gender Inequality poultry production – both for household consumption Index209 of 0.776, which ranks the country fourth lowest and for sale. globally.210 Access to education remains a key gender While the Provisional Constitution (2012) of the FGS concern. Health and nutrition indicators are among the guarantees women’s rights and participation in state worst in the world, with a life expectancy in 2016 of 57 mechanisms and decision-making processes, women years for women and 54 years for men.211 The maternal continue to be under-represented in key decision- mortality rate is estimated at 732 per 100,000 live making structures with only 24 percent of women births,212 with one in 12 women dying due to pregnancy- parliamentarians. A National Gender Policy was adopted related causes.213 in 2014 and Somalia’s National Development Plan (NDP Gender Based Violence (GBV) is a prevalent challenge 2017 – 2019) lays out key principles for addressing throughout Somalia. Key drivers of GBV include pervasive gender disparities and the empowerment of women social norms that perpetuate gender inequalities and to enhance overall development efforts. The national power imbalances between men and women in both mechanism for promoting gender equality and women’s the public and private spaces. These dynamics are empowerment is the Ministry of Women and Human exacerbated by insecurity, poverty and displacement— Rights Development (MWHRD). linked both to conflict and climate-related disasters— and deteriorating social and customary structures as II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact a result of 1.1 million people internally displaced prior Humanitarian aid remains largely driven by anecdote to the current drought.214 Early marriage is pervasive rather than by evidence. The contemporary humanitarian throughout the country, with 45 percent of women aged system has significant weaknesses regarding data 20 to 24 married before the age of 18.215 An estimated collection, analysis, and action at all stages of 98 percent of Somali women have undergone female response to natural disaster. The lack of sex and age genital mutilation.216 disaggregated data (SADD), capturing the distinct The Somali labor market reveals a large gender gap with needs, vulnerabilities and capacities of women, girls, labor force participation, in 2016, 76 percent amongst men and boys, continues to impede gender-responsive men versus 33 percent amongst women.217 As land efforts along the humanitarian, resilience recovery and and family assets are controlled by husbands or male development continuum.  Valley Institute. 2015. The Impact of War on Somali Men. Logica Study Series. Rift 208  The Gender Inequality Index (GII) is an index for measurement of gender disparity that was introduced in the 2010 Human Development Report 20th  209  anniversary edition by the United Nations Development Programme. It uses three dimensions to measure opportunity cost – reproductive health, empowerment and labor market participation. 210   UNDP.2012. Human Development Report 2012 211  http://datatopics.worldbank.org/gender/country/somalia 212   WHO. 2015. Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2015. 213  UNICEF. 2016. Situation Analysis of Children in Somalia 2016.  214  “Somalia: Overview Situation Report” UNHCR 30.04.2016  215  Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019)  216  UNDP – Human Development Report 2012  217  http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Somalia/Female_labor_force_participation/ Cross-cutting Sectors | 131 Social Sector malnutrition, limited access to water and few positive coping mechanisms. Women, particularly female IDPs, Increase of vulnerabilities and social marginalization: are still reliant on charity through social protection Prolonged exposure to the drought has extended mechanisms such as zakat,218 and contributions from the traditional coping strategies, such as migration and Diaspora in the form of remittances. family separation, beyond traditional limits and necessitated women to adopt new roles as income Adolescent girls: As the drought worsens, girls are often earners, particularly in cases where separation has the first to be withdrawn from school, largely as a result become permanent. Consultations with women at the of early and forced marriage, increased household grassroots indicate that cultural norms restrict women’s chores like water and firewood collection, and caring ability to move freely, which has made it more difficult for for family members suffering from malnutrition or water- them to cope with the drought in comparison to men as borne illnesses. Without the protection offered by an women bear disproportionate responsibilities in caring education, girls are exposed to increased vulnerability for the family and household duties. This has affected and risk of sexual exploitation and abuse, early and women’s resilience. Those women who have become forced marriage, and other forms of GBV. Lack of internally displaced because of the drought experience education contributes to feminization of poverty due cultural intolerance, which severely heightens their to illiteracy. Drop-out rates have increased due to marginalization and vulnerabilities. Such vulnerability the drought especially amongst girls, and access to means that women become the first victims when education is harder than ever for girls whose mothers families are faced with emergencies and humanitarian are family breadwinners. Older daughters typically find crises. Feminization of poverty is thus directly resulting they are unable to start or continue school because from a discriminatory customary system coupled with their domestic labor is needed at home to replace their the consequences of the drought. To be halted, this mother’s.219 Illiteracy rates for females and males are 76 downward spiral needs to be specifically targeted in and 60 percent respectively in IDP communities, and 59 recovery efforts. and 39 percent in host communities.220 Increase of female-headed households: The extended Productive Sectors absence of males due to the drought has resulted in a significant number of female-headed households, as well Access to property and asset ownership: Most Somali as households in which women have become the primary women are either excluded from asset ownership or or contributing breadwinners for the family. Women operate through a patriarchal filter. Protective traditional have stayed behind with children, the disabled, sick and and customary laws for women, their social support elderly to take care of young and lactating animals while systems and their access to land and property have men have migrated with the rest of the animals in search been compromised due to conflict, regular exposure of pastures and water. However, consultation with women to disasters, a breakdown of social order, law and groups strongly highlighted the needs of ‘stayees’, in stability. During the drought, vulnerable people, notably that the displaced population received humanitarian women, children, minorities, the disabled, child and assistance in camps or in staying with host communities, female-headed households, are exposed to protection but the ‘stayees’ remain marginalized and neglected. risks such as forced evictions, discrimination based on At the same time, loss of livestock due to prolonged status and family separations due to lack of support drought has forced many women and children to migrate structures and ungoverned settlements, and hence have to urban areas to access food and basic services. While limited access to protective shelter. Forced evictions in this separation has created opportunities for women’s the first half of 2017 caused the displacement of nearly expanding economic engagement e.g. cash for work 100,000 people.221 activities in camps and access to markets as daily wager/ Loss of livelihoods: It is estimated that women constitute worker etc., available economic opportunities are still 60-80 percent of sole traders in the domestic meat trade, quite limited for both men and women, particularly for milk trade, hides and skins, and petty trade (kiosks).222 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who are among the The drought’s effect on agricultural outputs and most vulnerable populations. In the face of drought, they livestock products, coupled with the increase in unpaid have been facing a large variety of obstacles from harsh Zakat  218  refers to the obligatory annual contribution required under Islamic law that is used for charitable and religious purposes. http://www.fsnau.org/sectors/gender 219  220   UNHCR. 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu 221   UNOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Needs Overview 222   Academic Research International. 2012. “Changing Role of Women in Somalia: An Empirical Survey of Social and Economic Contribution of Somali Women Entrepreneurs in Benadir Region; FAO. 2012.Gender in Emergency Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition in Somalia 132 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment care work, has significant consequences on women’s Gender-Based Violence economic stability and household income. As women lack ownership and have limited access to productive GBV constitutes another significant protection challenge access, female-headed households experience higher that, while prevalent throughout Somalia, has been vulnerability to shocks related to livestock losses relative exacerbated by the drought-related crisis as women and to male-headed households in the same wealth groups. girls travel longer distances without protection to find Targeted investment in women should thus be an water, food, livelihoods and other resources, particularly integral part of the agricultural recovery strategy. IDPs traveling on route to or from IDP settlements. Diversification of income-generating activities: An With large numbers of drought-related IDPs joining increasing number of women are active in the formal the millions of conflict-related IDPs in protracted and non-formal sectors and are further diversifying displacement, many host communities, services, and how they earn income as a result of the drought. Most institutions have reached their absorption capacities. specifically, women are very active in petty trade and Nomadic women and girls who migrated to towns face increasingly active as casual workers, leaving less time increased vulnerability to risks of GBV, including gang for their traditional gender roles of parenting. This has rapes.226 Displaced female IDPs also face unique risks an opportunity cost with negative implication for girls of GBV, including sexual exploitation, due to limited who are then pulled out of school.223 Women’s ability to security in the IDP settlements, poor living conditions participate in income-generating activities is reduced and limited clan protection. According to Gender-based as they don’t have the assurances of safety and security Violence Information Management System (GBVIMS) to travel to markets.224 The recovery plan must thus data, an increase of 8 percent IDP GBV survivors has been support women in engaging in sustainable income- reported (i.e. 76 percent in 2016 to 84 percent in 2017)227 generating activities, including skills development for with 99 percent being female. For example, the lack of women in entrepreneurship accompanied by market safe WASH facilities continues to put displaced women development and safe access to market locations, while and girls at risk of gender-based violence. Without focusing on enabling girls to continue their education. access to latrines, many women and girls become Therefore, cash-for-work or any income generating ‘prisoners of daylight’, daring to relieve themselves only activities modalities need to be designed in a way, where under the cover of darkness. women can participate without girls staying at home to The IDP camps are often left in a legal vacuum, with supplement their roles. almost no access to legal remedies because the formal Increased time burden: The combination of lack of water justice system is not established in IDP camps, justice and firewood, and loss and absence of men due to is not enforced (as in most areas, not just IDP camps) drought and conflict, have resulted in women’s increased and traditional clan systems have broken down. work burden in household and agricultural work. Often, the settlements are ungoverned or governed Women and girls, who have the primary responsibility by gatekeepers, which increases the chances of social for collecting water for domestic use, are now traveling and economic exploitation and abuse. Due to dramatic increased distances in search of water. In the Sanaag increase in the drought-affected IDP population, gender- region of Somalia, for example, the journey to reach based violence are increasingly reported in IDP camps, water is reportedly up to 125km roundtrip.225 In the face and recourse is limited because of the lack of structures, of increased drought-related diseases, women’s unpaid both formal and informal, to deal with these issues. GBV care work has also grown exponentially. Because of the in Somalia is exacerbated by weak or non-existent law drought, there is thus increased time poverty amongst enforcement and judicial infrastructure, which when women and girls, which further reduces their ability combined with cultural sensitivity about such violence, to cope with the crisis by limiting their time to adopt results in a climate of impunity that facilitates further positive coping strategies, such as alternative income- violence. Culturally, the Somali society does not openly generating activities. discuss issues such as domestic violence and rape, FAO.  223  2012. Gender in Emergency Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition in Somalia  InterAction GBV Working Group and Protection Working Group. 2017. “Famine-Affected Countries Gender-Based Violence and 224  Protection Concerns”. 225 UNOCHA. 2017. “Horn of Africa: Impact of Conflict and Drought Crisis on Women and Girls.”  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/east-africa-drought-horn-somaliland-somalia-refugees-rape-miscarriages-a7586471.html 226  227  UNFPA. 2017. Situation Report Sitrep #004. Over half (52 percent) of the reported GBV incidents were physical assault, followed by incidents of rape  accounting for 16 percent of reported GBV incidents; 68 percent of GBV cases were categorized as intimate partner violence. Cross-cutting Sectors | 133 © IOM/Muse Mohammed which further hampers women’s access to justice. GBV cholera. Women’s risk to contract illnesses is particularly response services for families, children and survivors of high due to their care function for the sick, children and GBV violence are critical to be prioritized in the drought elderly, yet their access to basic health services remains response plan. particularly limited. Distance to health facilities is not the only impediment to access services. In particular, for the Health and Nutrition most vulnerable groups, including women and girls, lack of good transport and communication systems, regular Malnutrition and water-borne diseases: Malnutrition supply of drugs, supervision and surveillance activities has reached emergency levels in a number of locations are limited. in southern and central Somalia, primarily, though not exclusively among IDPs. Women, who traditionally eat Women’s access to basic and reproductive health after men are at higher risk of malnutrition. Many have services: Lack of basic obstetric and reproductive seen their food-consumption reduced to one meager health care is of particular concern given the high meal a day.228 The huge migration of livestock due to maternal mortality ratio, making Somalia one of the drought, has left women and children with limited access most dangerous places in the world to be pregnant.229 to protein rich food hence, increasing their chances of Lack of access to these services is even higher amongst malnutrition and poor health. Increase of access to IDPs, where maternal mortality is highest. Many women productive assets, including livestock, is thus paramount. have also lost access to family planning, exposing them to unwanted pregnancies in perilous conditions. The drought has had a drastic impact on the health sector. Access to basic hygiene has worsened as a result of Decreased access to or the complete loss of drinkable internal displacement, leading to increased health risks, water has created a dire situation in Somalia, leading to particularly for women and girls. increased use of unprotected water sources, resulting in increasing occurrence of water borne diseases such as  Action 228  Aid. 2017. “Horn of Africa drought threatens women and girls,” 22 Feb 2017 “Crisis overview,” OCHA Somalia.  229  134 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment III. Recovery Needs national and district level gender profiles need to be developed to inform programming. Furthermore, In Somalia, women play a major role in the agricultural noting the disproportionate risk exposure of women and livestock economies, the informal sector and and girls, targeted action addressing their specific reproductive work. These areas were strongly affected by needs is required. the drought. Women’s voices and contributions are thus essential in recovery efforts so that women’s needs are Despite their vulnerabilities and disproportionate addressed and so that their contributions and potential risk exposure, Somali women are not simply victims are leveraged. but leaders and agents of change who play key roles as first responders and as maintainers of community The DINA presents a unique opportunity to redress resilience. In the absence of the primary breadwinner existing inequalities and to ensure gender-responsive due to conflict or recurrent natural disasters, women allocation of financial and human recovery-related have assumed the responsibility for income generation resources. Gender-transformative recovery presents and provision of care for children and the elderly. The opportunities for new and more progressive gender aftermath of an emergency and the early recovery phase roles and relationships to emerge. Post-disaster recovery can present opportunities for new and more progressive strategies and resources must strive to safeguard, restore, gender roles and relationships to emerge. For example, and promote economic engagement of disadvantaged the changes in the family structures have allowed Somali groups, particularly women. These efforts must also women to access employment and livelihood sectors seek to redress inequalities by enabling equal access traditionally held by men. to power and resources. Women’s economic recovery under the post-disaster recovery programs must Active at grassroots, local women’s organizations are therefore be protected and accorded the same status often best informed on the distinct needs, capacities and importance as that of men. and the context-specific vulnerabilities women, girls, men and boys face in the aftermath of drought. Despite Major challenges for the sector relate to pervasive social progress at the national level with the increase in the norms and standards, further aggravated by conflict, number of women in parliament, significant gaps poverty and recurring droughts, that perpetuate gender remain in ensuring women’s meaningful participation inequalities. The lack of sex and age disaggregated and leadership at different levels. The structural barriers data, capturing the distinct needs, vulnerabilities and for women’s participation, especially for women in capacities of women, girls, men and boys, continues marginalized communities such as IDP communities, to impede gender-responsive efforts along the are manifold and require targeted interventions. humanitarian, peace and security, and development Therefore, it is crucial that any drought recovery plan continuum. Therefore, adequate mechanisms need to leverages the leadership of women and women’s civil be urgently put in place to ensure the collection and society in planning, implementation and monitoring use of sex and age disaggregated data (SADD) and and evaluation, while addressing the gender-specific gender analysis. Closely linked to this is the limited vulnerabilities and needs of women, girls, men and boys. capacity of humanitarian actors and government on gender equality and women’s empowerment, including The following thematic focus areas – (I) Implementation capacity on gender mainstreaming and gender analysis. of SADD and gender analysis tools, (II) Gender- Women are primarily seen as vulnerable victims within responsive governance and expand women’s the protection cluster, whose leadership role and key participation and leadership (III) Promote gender contributions, both at community and at national levels, equality in disaster risk reduction (IV) Women sustainable are underleveraged and unsupported assets. economic and livelihoods development and (V) GBV and targeted responses – stem from the impact analysis Gender, as a cross-cutting issue, needs to be presented above. In the below needs matrix the short, streamlined across all the sectors included in the medium and long-term recovery needs are identified recovery plan. This requires collection and use of SADD along the five thematic focus areas, with cost allocations and strengthening gender-responsive governance in Table 46. in the short, medium and long term. As part of this, Cross-cutting Sectors | 135 Table 46: Detailed Short, Medium, and Long-term Recovery Needs Key Themes Short – Term Activities Medium – Term Activities Long – Term Activities (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Implementation of Establish a “Common Information • • Design, conduct and Strengthen the “Common • sex, age Management Framework (CIMF)” for the regularly update gender Information Management disaggregated data collection of sex and age profiles at national, framework (CIMF)” for (SADD) and gender disaggregated data (SADD), made regional and district level the collection of sex and analysis tools available to government and to be used as a baseline age disaggregated data development partners, including modifi- for gender responsive (SADD), made available to cation of the existing tools and provision programming. government and of trainings and orientations at national, • Conduct development partners, in- regional and local level relevant stake- gender-relevant safety cluding providing trainings holders. audits in urban and orientations at national, • Design and conduct gender environments, public regional and local level to specific rapid assessment to provide spaces, and relevant stakeholders. updated baseline with concrete residences in IDP camps, Promote changes in • findings and recommendations for host community and area discriminatory laws and gender specific needs of affected of return to develop practices by conducting population to promote social recommendations research studies and protection and sustainable livelihoods for disaster risk policy dialogues with in key sectors such as livelihoods management. relevant stakeholders in and livestock. the context of disaster risk management and highlight the gaps and develop recommendations for gen- der responsive disaster risk management. Conduct study on the • impact of Somalia drought on women’s livelihood, housing, land and property rights – access and control. Gender-responsive Strengthen women’s networks and • Continue to strengthen • Promote women’s • governance and organizations to facilitate women’s active the existing coordination meaningful participation promote women’s engagement and participation in sectorial mechanisms for women’s and representation in all participation and coordination meetings to incorporate participation in levels of decision making leadership gender analysis in the government, UN, civil related to drought assessment of disaster risks, impacts and society (staff and resilience recovery needs and to address women’s unique personnel costs, framework. needs in disaster reduction and recovery capacity building Provide technical gender • policies, plans and programs. activities, consultations expertise to the • Technical support and dedicated and dialogue Ministry of Finance, gender expertise at Ministry of platforms). Ministry of Gender and Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Build capacities and pro- • Human Rights on Management and Ministry of Gender and mote accountability within gender-responsive Human Rights Development to provide government budgeting for the drought strategic direction for gender mainstream- institutions and resilience recovery ing and women’s processes to engage framework empowerment at the national, regional women and men to foster implementation. and district level for the gender-equitable relations implementation of gender responsive within these institutions to recovery framework in alignment with ensure gender-sensitive resilience recovery framework. resource mobilization, aid • Rapid mapping to identify key local wom- coordination, en’s organizations and CSOs budgeting and fund directly involved with affected allocation in post disaster communities and support their recovery and reconstruc- engagement with drought response tion efforts. and mitigation programming Technical support and • and planning. capacity development to relevant state ministries and departments on gender responsive resilience recovery framework. 136 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Promote gender Establishment of multi-purpose centers • Support the Ministry of • equality in disaster in camps, host communities and area Humanitarian Affairs and risk reduction of return for women to have access to Disaster Management psychosocial counselling and trauma for Gender Responsive assistance, awareness raising and National Disaster Risk information dissemination, Management Policy and • Integration into early recovery and coordinate with relevant social groups and referral mechanisms. stakeholders to develop and establish “gender sensitive community based disaster risk management structure and early warning systems” with full involvement and participation of women at national, regional and district levels. Women Promotion of climate-resilient • •Training and skills Mainstreaming the • sustainable agriculture and ownership of crops enhancement for excluded and economic and for women farmers. women’s economic devel- marginalized groups into livelihoods Strengthen the capacities of displaced • opment the long-term skills development and vulnerable women to access (restoration of development and livelihoods and income-generating disrupted and livelihoods support opportunities etc, including destroyed livelihood eco- efforts, through cash-for-work, livelihoods and nomic assets, designing skill livestock’s assets distributions and development, development business skills development. strengthening and opportunities with diversification of relevant business plan and start market related skills for up support cost. self-employment, creation of short term employment opportunities through community infrastructure rehabilitation). • Support and address women’s and other vulnerable groups hous- ing, land and property access and ownership issues and dispute resolution mechanisms, including legal aid and documentation. •Targeted approach for vulnerable women and other groups for un-conditional cash trans- fer support. Gender based Provision of hygienically safe and • Strengthen/support GBV • Violence (GBV) and gender-disaggregated latrines. response service targeted responses • Response services to SGBV provision for survivors and survivors including case management and provide targeted inter- provision of needed kits. vention including access • Special nutrition support for pregnant and to basic health, legal and lactating women and children psycho-social support under age of 5 years. services, prevention programming targeting affected populations and engaging men, as well as religious and community leaders on GBV. Cross-cutting Sectors | 137 Table 47: Summary Needs for Gender Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Implementation of sex, age National X X X 4,300,000 disaggregated data (SADD) and gender analysis tools Gender-responsive governance National X X X 4,400,000 and promote women's participation and leadership Promote gender equality National X X X 3,500,000 in disaster risk reduction Women sustainable economic National X X X 28,500,000 and livelihoods development Gender based Violence (GBV) National X X X 3,500,000 and targeted responses Total Gender Needs 44,200,000 Governance horizontal coordination across line-ministries, as well as vertical coordination between all levels of government, coupled with a lack of clarity in the division of roles and I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions responsibilities for almost all government institutions, Protracted armed conflict and disasters including has led to disjointed, ad-hoc responses that are poorly droughts, famines and floods have been major drivers resourced. Furthermore, on disaster management, of fragility in Somalia over the past three decades. the weak capacities to collect and analyze data has Conflict and weak governance have exacerbated prevented the ability to identify needs and provide existing vulnerability the effects of drought, leading timely response and early recovery. to poverty-conflict traps and to a further weakening of core government capacities to effectively respond During the 2013-2015 baseline period, various entities to the needs of those affected. Al-Shabaab controls existed to deal with humanitarian crises, among them much of the rural areas of southern Somalia that has the Somalia Disaster Management Authority (SoDMA), been hit hardest by the drought and humanitarian the Emergency Response Unit and the Humanitarian access remains extremely limited. Al-Shabaab and other Affairs Unit under the Ministry of Interior. SoDMA militia groups have been very adept at exploiting local was created in 2011 by the Office of Prime Minister grievances, especially from marginalized social groups with the mandate to manage all disaster and develop in these areas. strategies to prevent, respond to, and manage disasters affecting Somalia. Since its establishment, SoDMA While in fragile settings, conflict can increase the received support from several international agencies to humanitarian crisis following drought and other climatic strengthen its capacities. A 2015 capacity assessment shocks, the effects of drought on local communities however revealed a weak capacity and lack of legitimacy tend to vary. It is widely recognized that government across the country. capacities and institutional set up matter a great deal in determining this variance. It also determines the Crisis response entities have been set up in all states, capacity of communities to prepare for, respond to, and in addition to several other smaller disaster response recover from natural disasters. and crises coordination cells. The multiplicity of entities dealing with humanitarian and disaster issues has Somalia’s institution-building agenda has changed however often resulted in poor coordination, institutional throughout most of the baseline period. The ensuing competition, duplication of effort, inefficient use of conflict in the country has had a major impact on the resources, and confusion over mandates. The lack of ability of public institutions at large to emerge and state and local level capacities meant delayed action and function effectively. Overall, challenges to ensure poor support to vulnerable and affected communities. 138 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and private of 21 percent, Somalia is heavily dependent on aid. This sector assumed many of the government’s responsibilities, is slightly lower than private remittances from the large in the absence of a well-functioning state. Consequently, and influential Somali Diaspora which made up USD 1.4 international organizations including NGOs play an billion in 2016 alone. In comparison, domestic revenues important role in service delivery, humanitarian and only barely sustain operational expenses related to the development management and coordination. It is civil service workforce and do not allow for any capital expected that in the foreseeable future, NGOs and investments, limiting the government’s ability to directly private sector actors remain important mechanisms for finance drought-related preparedness, response and delivery of services. This is partly a legacy of the collapse recovery activities. of the government in 1991 which left a vacuum for others to assume the role of government institutions. Moreover, II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact government leadership has had to work under extreme constraints, with a lack of qualified staff, lack of resources The government set up the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and high levels of insecurity. and Disaster Management (MoHA&DM) to coordinate all relief efforts at the FGS level and in the federal The state began to re-emerge in the context of a new member states. MoHA&DM is mandated to address three-tiered federal system which includes the FGS, crisis prevention/disaster risk reduction, preparedness, FMS and district level government under the Provisional response and recovery by facilitating horizontal and Constitution form 2012. Towards the end of 2016, vertical coordination between stakeholders. Further, they Somalia issued for the first time in over 30 years a new offer necessary policy guidance, leadership, information National Development Plan (NDP), covering the period sharing and facilitate planning and implementation. The 2017–2019 that underpins a focus on building sustainable Ministry operates through its network at the federal, efficient, effective, accountable and inclusive institutions. state and local levels and ensures pooling of resources Recognizing the need to move away from a dependency of stakeholders including NGOs, private sector, on humanitarian aid to ensure long-term development international development and humanitarian agencies objectives, the NDP recommends resilience building and the bilateral and multilateral donors. Although as a key pillar for state building and through this pillar’s initial efforts to respond to drought were limited to working group offers a structure to coordinate efforts coordination, this newly established entity demonstrates that require between government, humanitarian actors significant potential to increase the government’s and development actors. capacity to prepare for and respond to natural disasters. Progress has been achieved on aid coordination in the The National Drought Response Committee, a federal country since the launch of the Somali Compact in 2013. body composed of nine high-level officials from the Somalia’s Aid Coordination Architecture emanating from FGS and FMS, was established in December 2016. Its the New Deal and Somali Compact is generally viewed mandate is to undertake awareness campaigns, mobilize as a successful three-tiered coordination approach. resources and to coordinate service delivery and data While the aid coordination architecture indeed provides sharing with the Regional Drought Committees (DRC) an important structure to further build upon, it should at the FMS level, among others. At the FMS level, be noted that more effort is required from Government most entities and mechanisms, envisioned to serve as and international partners to ensure that the Aid counterparts of the MoHA&DM, still need to be set up. Coordination Architecture functions properly. The foundations necessary for an effective humanitarian affairs and disaster risk management system are lacking For the past four years, an annual Aid Mapping exercise as key entities, relevant legislation, strategies, and has been led by the FGS with technical support of funding is absent. the World Bank and UN to provide interim trends and information on aid flows. The 2016 Somalia Humanitarian Functions related to disaster preparedness and response Response Plan notes that “although there have been are legally assigned to the local government level. The more donors looking to increase support to development District Departments of Planning and Department of programs, this has not translated into the channeling of Social Affairs support the plans of both development any resources towards the development agenda. This is and emergency related activities, supported by the severely impacting the opportunity to build the capacity committee for social affairs under the district council, of core institutions of the state and Government and basic where capacity is sufficient. These structures have services”. The 2017 Aid Flows analysis, drawing on 2016 however largely been left out of the emergency planning data, revealed that the Official Development Assistance coordination at the FGS and FMS level with significant (ODA) for Somalia amounted to USD 1.3 billion, which implications on legitimacy. includes humanitarian aid. With an ODA to GDP ratio Cross-cutting Sectors | 139 Puntland and Somaliland, having consolidated their own Effectiveness of coordination and response is reduced governance structures and enhancing their capacities due to the lack of clarity on roles, responsibilities, to respond to disasters, are notable exceptions. In functions, and tasks between federal, state, and 2005, the Government of Puntland established the local governments. In almost all states, decision- Humanitarian Affairs Disaster Management Agency making and accountability structures are weak, lines (HADMA) as an autonomous public institution. HADMA of communication are unclear, and policy, legal and is currently mandated by legislation as the official lead institutional frameworks are largely absent. government institution that oversees matters on disaster management and coordination in Puntland. In 2003, the HADMA in Puntland and NERAD in Somaliland are Government of Somaliland established the National widely considered to be a ‘best practice’ examples for Environment Research and Disaster-preparedness disaster management and response and could serve as a (NERAD) as an autonomous entity. NERAD is responsible model to be replicated in other states. HADMA’s efforts for disaster preparedness, mitigation, coordination, in addressing the drought crisis in Puntland include and recovery activities under the guidance of the Vice- support to the coordination, oversight and monitoring President of Somaliland and with cooperation from the of responses to the crisis. HADMA has substantially Ministry of Environment and Rural Development. At the improved its response in these areas during the current local level, the Local Government law of Somaliland drought. However, in order to speed up the coordination provides districts with both development and and response efforts, consultations conducted by emergency responsibilities. During emergencies, they the World Bank highlighted the need for clarity on are responsible for disaster response such as water and mandate to avoid duplication of duties between the food distribution. different institutions operating in Puntland, most notably HADMA and the Ministry of Environment Wildlife and Ongoing monitoring of the alignment of the existing aid Tourism (MoEWT). That said, HADMA noted that they coordination architecture with the large -scale drought have taken initial steps to clarify mandates, and roles, response is necessary. While the aid architecture and address these confusions through the revision of provides a forum for linking development and the Contingency Plan for Drought and Floods. This plan humanitarian efforts, communication and coordination was developed through an inclusive multi-stakeholder between relevant pillar working groups and the process and aims to promote a coordinated approach humanitarian cluster system should be strengthened. to preparedness and response to disasters by setting The SDRF remains the centerpiece for the partnership up various coordination and data collection structures between the government and international community such as the Regional Disaster Management Committee. and it has two core functions (a) coordination framework It is tasked to collect and disseminate early warning providing strategic oversight and guidance for NDP information and aims to implement the Puntland implementation (relevant for all actors and sources Disaster Management Policy (PDMP), which will provide of financing for the NDP); and (b) act as a common the basis for a much needed institutional and legal governance structure for three multi-partner trust funds framework for disaster management. Given the resource administered by the African Development Bank, the constraints, the implementation of the Contingency Plan United Nations and the World Bank. however relies on external donors for funding. Another initiative being developed by Puntland’s Somalia Water Government operations and Land Information Management (SWALIM) body is the establishment of a Data Centre for Land and The MoHA&DM has a clearly written mandate, a Water Information to improve coordination and water corresponding institutional set up, and well-defined management. This new Data Centre will combine, as responsibilities of its different Directorates and a central hub, all existing SWALIM established Data Teams. Despite challenges for the initial institution Centers currently operating in Puntland under the building process, a team of ambitious and committed coordination and oversight of MoEWT. Despite these professionals appears to be in place. The ability of the positive steps, there are notable constraints for HADMA institution to assert its role and place alongside other to operate effectively. HADMA has 16 staff members, all relevant ministries remains ambiguous. The capable of them operating from Garowe, while the organization’s core team of the Ministry remains small. Compounded mandate covers the entire Puntland. Funding, logistics by the loss of the Director-General during the October and transportation and salary issues have been a 14th bombing, significant external assistance can add problem, thereby limiting the agency’s ability to recruit substantial value to its operational capability. In the staff and operate in all the regions to coordinate long-term, current staff levels are not commensurate humanitarian activities. with the Ministry’s mandate. 140 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia NERAD in Somaliland produces annual DRR/ a platform for advocating for response and fundraising. preparedness plans. Yet, the capacity to implement DRCs in other states are showing a less positive track these plans is weakened due to limited technical and record. Most DRCs appear to meet on ad-hoc basis, human capacity, and lack of financial resources. Besides lack capacity to gather and analyze information, and are these challenges, NERAD noted that there has not limited in their ability to respond due to a lack of funding. been a comprehensive and effective resilience strategic All DRCs reviewed, however, do appear to engage planning. Furthermore, capacity building on technical well with NGOs, private sector, religious leaders and issues is still needed in the areas of collection and the international community and are coordinating, to synthesis of technical data and information to address various extents, with other community-led committees, the challenges of disasters. thereby offering an entry point to improve coordination with the local level. The National Drought Response Committee (DRC), while originally foreseen to be placed under the FGS Responses to drought and emergencies are organized MoHA&DM, now seems to function as a separate by local governments in parallel to the interventions body. Operating without a decree or ToR and without of national/state response agencies. Resistance to any meeting records available, its effectiveness as include local government in the coordination and a coordination mechanism is disputed. Moreover, prevention has a negative impact on the effectiveness mandated to raise emergency aid, the Committee and efficiency of the response. Local governments in managed in 2017 to collect approximately USD 2 million, Somalia are struggling to raise their own finances, but showing the limited capacity of the government to have mobilization potential directly from local taxes improve resource mobilization. and from diaspora. In the North, a number of districts have shown significant increases in revenue collection On the FMS level, DRCs have recently been set up in for basic service delivery during disasters. However, in all states but with significant differences in terms of the South there are only a few functioning district level operationalization and effectiveness. In Puntland, the governance structures to date – in Benadir and Adado. DRC is said to play an essential role in updating the Elsewhere, the local government is represented by a situation of the drought to stakeholders and serves as handful of appointed administrators in each district, Cross-cutting Sectors | 141 none of whom have meaningful resources with which to power and authority between the central government provide services. Furthermore, most states coordination and federal member states; and restart the stalled and decision-making efforts are undermined by a lack of national reconciliation process among Somali clans, legislative framework defining the mandates and inter- focusing from the bottom up. A transparent and relationships of various organizations across sectors and inclusive process in establishing the new administrations administrative levels. will avoid disruptive clan power relations to come into play. To achieve this, a process-oriented, flexible and The civil society and the private sector have key roles risk-informed approach through continuous conflict to play in fostering economic recovery and resilience analysis and integration of other conflict sensitive required to build back better. Both actors have shown measures, is necessary. remarkable resilience over the past few decades and continue to function. Numerous NGOs have been set up, and increasingly, they implement activities with regards IV. Recovery Needs to service delivery, advocacy and accountability. During The recent drought crisis put functionality of the the current drought response, they played an important Somali Governance under severe stress. To avoid that role to be built on. The underlying approach towards the cracks turn into critical bursts, the following three- unlocking economic recovery and improving resilience pronged approach is recommended: (I) Supporting the hinges on establishing productive collaboration among state-building process (II) Building national capacity for the government, the private sector and the not-for-profit Climate Hazard Management to avoid climate hazards or NGOs. Each of these actors have important roles to turn into humanitarian crisis; and (III) Governance play and if one of them fails, the overall approach will framework fostering economic recovery and resilience - be at risk. The government sector is emerging, but with and bridging the aid’s funding divide. strong regional differences. The absence of overall legal and regulatory arrangements combined with limited Support the state-building process capacity, makes improvements in the legal, regulatory, Drought management mechanism will only be sustained policy and oversight arrangements key priorities. along a successful state building process. Humanitarian The private sector is vibrant, but faces obstacles to assistance can have impact beyond immediate life- further growth, including weak business regulations for saving activities if the enabling institutional framework SMEs, poor access to finance, and limited access to non- is effective. Strengthening the FGS to implement the traditional overseas markets. With strong support from federal process, including the discussions around roles the diaspora, the private sector is exploring innovative and responsibilities of the FGS (horizontal level) as well financing approaches, e.g. crowdfunding. Building on as the engagement of FMS (vertical level) is critical. these innovative approaches is to be further encouraged Restoring core functions of the Somali government as part of the response management to a climate or man- involves ensuring that efforts are government-led and made crisis. It is critical to build the resilience of Somalia -owned and build on existing structures. to strengthen economic recovery and development. The Critical priorities: recent drought response largely failed to capitalize on private sector initiatives due to the weak coordination Ensure that all the federal ministries implementing and data management. The NDP offers perspectives drought recovery programs have adequate capacity to and opportunities for aid coordination, as well as implement recovery interventions. Drought recovery unlocking economic recovery, improve resilience and includes several sectors: agriculture, livestock, water & reduce abject poverty. sanitation, health, education, urban, housing, energy, etc. Recovery needs in each of these sectors need III. Cross-cutting Considerations to be led through the government efforts. So, all the ministries would require capacity-building assistance. Integrating a Conflict Sensitive Approach Such capacities could be developed through additional Ultimately, only by addressing Somalia’s chronic conflicts staff, training, and strengthening of office systems. From can the recurring threat of food insecurity and famine a ‘whole of government’ perspective, these capacity- be tackled in a sustainable manner. This will require at building efforts are critical to enable a multi-sector a minimum that the federal and state governments, approach to drought risk management. supported by donors, combat large-scale corruption Equitable capacity-building support for FMS civil service and begin to deliver public services, particularly security, is needed. The support is necessary for the FMS to at all levels. It furthermore requires the finalization of partner with the FGS and implement recovery programs. constitutional negotiations regarding the allocation of An assessment of their recovery programs and drought 142 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment management capacity needs can identify components More specific recommendations are: for support. Greater clarity on the distribution of roles and responsibilities between FGS and FMS can improve Strengthen multi-sector coordination on drought effectiveness to combat disasters. Clarity ion this would response management. Existing, government structure make it easier to channel resources and implement the needs to be identified for strengthening inter-ministerial program at the appropriate and capacitated level. coordination, as additional mechanisms strain further limited capacity in government. The Resilience Pillar Local governments are expected to play a vital role Working Group, chaired by the MoHA&DM, could in drought management. By enhancing the presence present a possible suitable structure at the national and capacity of local governments, and by clarifying level. High-level government leadership, providing a their roles in drought management, local governments platform for FGS and FMS engagement, and the support can become important actors to manage the impacts of donors and international partners are important pre- of droughts. The formation of efficient, functional, conditions for effectiveness. Similarly, at the state level, and inclusive district authorities as part of the Wadajir where coordination structures are often largely absent, National Framework (WNF) and Federal Government’s the establishment of inter-ministerial coordination broader stabilization framework can support recovery mechanisms supported by a Secretariat and that capacity at the local level. For those civil servants directly meetings on a regular basis are needed. involved in emergency response, skills development keeps the respective ministries effective at delivering on An entry point to set up these coordination structures is their mandate. Where required, capacity assessments to start by building the capacity within the Ministries of can be conducted to map existing capacity and define Planning to facilitate coordination at the state level and gaps and needs. respond to local needs. However, flexibility needs to be provided for FMS to identify the appropriate set up and NGOs, community leaders and traditional authorities, design. Entities such as HADMA and NERAD can serve local academic institutions, and private sector have a as examples and could be replicated in new federal pivotal role in disaster response. Capacity development states, taking contextual differences into account. programs targeted at these actors can address some of the major obstacles to fast and effective drought Improving Public Finance Management (PFM) response. The potential for community based Disaster arrangements for drought management in Somalia builds Risk Management should be assessed and where capacity across the government and builds systems for feasible, a framework for this can be developed. The government-led responses. The national budget should effort to build capacities at the federal, state and local be used for making allocations to different ministries/ levels is an essential part of the state building process. departments. Appropriate budget allocations need to be directed towards drought preparedness and response. The NDP outlines a broader civil service reform agenda, The line ministries need to receive allocation for drought based on the principles of the use of country system management activities related to their sectors. A common agenda and includes the design and implementation budget line which ministries / agencies can access as per of a new Human Resource Development Framework. appropriation should be established. This budget would This will allow the government to manage its public be disbursed following the program guidelines and workforce in a cost-effective way, integrated with its priorities and would include the following components: - other management systems. As a long-term agenda, it federal and regional management budget, administrative should be supported through governance support for budget, capital budget, capacity building budget, drought management. contingency budget. Building National Capacity in Coordination, Public Increasing contingency budget for drought management Finance Management, and Accountability in Drought improves responsiveness to natural disasters. Somalia Management has a contingency budget, with an allocation of USD 2.3 million in the revised 2017 budget, which can be used for Federal capacity to coordinate drought management emergency expenditures on the authority of the Minister. activities across multiple sectors, ministries and agencies The contingency budget needs to be increased further. improves effectiveness of response. The FGS needs to decide on the appropriate line ministry to lead such Foster the SDRF as governance structure to secure a coordination structure (i.e. MoPIED, MoHA&DM). funding and capacity to support response over a This drought management coordination needs to be longer timeframe. The SDRF provides the mechanism nationally owned and led and requires an inclusive for channeling external aid and assistance through approach including international agencies, NGOs, and different funds. It needs to be strengthened further. private sector. The SDRF could be used to develop and implement Cross-cutting Sectors | 143 © UNDP Somalia drought policies and crisis response in a collaborative drivers of drought and conflict through national manner with partners like private sector and NGOs. dialogue, and promote reconciliation through drought This fits within the implementation of the Grand management are important objectives for the short and Bargaining and the NWOW in further improving existing medium term. aid coordination mechanisms in Somalia enabling to refine the implementation of the humanitarian- Setting up an Information Management (IM) & development nexus. Monitoring system for the recovery program and improve transparency and coordination. The IM & Enhancing integrity and accountability can project Monitoring system should provide information on all important confidence to external partners to increase the recovery interventions including sector, cost, time- use of country systems for drought response. There is a frame, area of implementation, and impact. Puntland’s need to ensure leadership within the Somali Government initiative to establish SWALIM should be supported and on budget transparency, oversight and delivery against the potential for replication of this model in other FMSs an accountability framework. These measures would can be assessed. entail setting up administrative systems for continuous oversight, enhancing services of auditors and financial Strengthen the DRR system with a greater focus on management experts, and increasing communications recovery with recurrent crisis increasing in frequency. to the public through media campaigns. The DRR system in Somalia should be strongly oriented towards supporting recovery on a continuous basis. Provide Technical and Systems Development Assistance A recovery preparedness would require a capacity to for Implementation of DINA assess recovery needs, organize recovery interventions involving multiple stakeholders, seek external assistance Developing a system-wide drought recovery strategy where required, and monitor implementation. Gradually provides a platform for all the stakeholders to come transfer social protection services to the government together and implement recovery interventions towards which should develop these services further as outlined collective outcomes. Providing technical assistance to in the chapter on Social Protection. stakeholders where needed and addressing underlying 144 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 48: Summary Needs for Governance Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Expert Personnel (+/- 250 staff National X 41,000,000 for 24 months) Office equipment National X 2,200,000 Capacity building activities National X 3,200,000 specific to recovery and resilience Development of legislative National X 1,900,000 framework & related consultations Building leadership capacity National X 800,000 within the Somali Government on oversight and delivery against an accountability framework Establishing Database Center and National X 2,700,000 strengthening statistical capacity & information management Building recovery program National X 6,000,000 management capacity within Federal and State Min of Planning (2 years) Access to finance for social National X 560,000 entrepreneurs and innovators Total Governance Needs 58,360,000 Conflict I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions The impacts of drought on Somali society are mediated through complex environmental, governance, political, and social factors. Most critically: drought itself drives conflict; the impacts of drought are exacerbated by conflict; and conflict and drought have together been the major drivers of waves of displacement over a period of decades. Through violence and socio-political marginalization, the impacts of drought and conflict – including violence, deprivation and displacement – fall disproportionately on groups that are already the most vulnerable. The conflict context also places constraints on responses to drought. This chapter briefly elaborates the most pertinent elements of this causal nexus, examining some of the ways in which conflict and social factors condition the human impact of drought. It goes on to draw out the main operational implications of the analysis. Cross-cutting Sectors | 145 Somali society has become increasingly fragmented. it has been unable to contain the scale of conflict of Lineage (or clan) has been a major principle of social recent decades.232 Conflict and drought (together with organisation and solidarity, structuring collaboration floods, evictions, and other causes) have together and competition in a traditionally mainly pastoralist uprooted large sections of the population, particularly society. However, in its evolution over the decades groups already marginalized, creating a whole new since the 1990s, clan allegiance has all too often been set of human impacts and social tensions. In addition, manipulated as a vector for violent conflict and zero-sum Somalia is characterized by a predominantly young political competition. In a society where authority had population (80 percent below the age of 35); high been distributed widely and social relations managed by unemployment (75 percent of youth are unemployed, debate and consensus, contestation over the building among the highest rates in the world);233 the extensive of state institutions has itself also been a major driver proliferation of arms; and the emergence of violent of conflict.230 The political system that has emerged jihadist ideology and organization. Decades of violent in contemporary Somalia, characterized by complex conflict, along with effective impunity, have resulted in negotiations and trade-offs between stakeholders with a society with accumulated, unaddressed grievances, a wide range of both formal and informal power-bases along with widespread psycho-social trauma. This legacy and interlocking interests, is appropriately termed breeds further violence. As the National Development ‘hybrid governance’. Plan states: ‘Many young Somali are trapped in an environment of violence, fear, unemployment Social, economic, and external factors have also played and poverty.’234 their role. Although Somali people are sometimes portrayed as relatively homogenous, there are major Together the above factors drive violent conflict at imbalances between the power of clans, and also several inter-related levels. First, conflict has at times significant minority groups that have suffered extreme been exacerbated by the involvement of Somalia’s marginalization, having minimal political representation neighbors and broader regional and global interests. and limited access to education, government Second, civil war, which erupted in 1991 after the employment, remittances, or humanitarian relief. overthrow of the Barre regime and resultant collapse At the economic level, in the absence of effective of central government, pitted armed factions often regulatory processes, economic dynamism has often recruited along lineage lines. Third, violent jihadism been channeled into opportunistic, rent seeking was added to this scenario in the form of the Islamic and destructive activities driving elite competition Courts Union (ICU) from which al-Shabaab subsequently and corruption, rather than longer-term investments arose. Al-Shabaab, which has international as well as that could form the basis for stable and peaceful national and local aspirations and support, continues to collaboration.231 External influences – military, political hold tenaciously to significant territory, mainly in south- and economic – have also exacerbated conflict. central Somalia, despite having suffered losses in recent years. Fourth, local communal conflicts, typically over To these drivers may be added other factors that have natural resources such as land, pasture, water rights, or perpetuated conflict: Somalia’s fragile ecosystem is economic rents, may result in violence, often at the sub- subject to degradation and periodic drought. Natural clan level. Fifth, the incidence of criminal, interpersonal resource scarcity intensifies the potential for conflict violence and gender-based violence are high. These (over livestock, pasture, water, agricultural land, forest levels are inter-related: local conflicts implicate wider etc.), while traditional modes of managing livestock tensions, alliances and grievances at other levels, through transhumance are constrained by insecurity drawing on a repertoire of injustices going back to the and international borders. Formal natural resource colonial period, land grabbing under the Barre regime management mechanisms are largely absent or and ‘clan cleansing’ during the chaos of the civil war. ineffective. While customary law (xeer) administered Together, these factors continue to make Somali the by elders, or mediation by religious leaders and other most conflict-affected country in Africa in 2017, with third parties continues to be effective at local level 3,287 recorded fatalities and 1,537 violent events as See Governance section. 230  231  World Bank. 2013. A Background Literature Review on the Drivers of Conflict, Fragility and Resilience in Somalia. Prepared by Bernard Harborne and  Matthias Mayr. Social Development Department, World Bank, March 2013. 232  Gundel, Joakim, Louise-Alexandre Berg, and Yahya Ibrahim. 2016. Political Economy of Justice in Somalia. World Bank Working Paper, Justice  Security and Development Series. April. 233  FGS. 2016 National Development Plan 2017-2019. Final, October 2016. Federal Government of Somalia.  234  Ibid. 146 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment at September 22nd.235 October’s three deadly bomb attacks in Mogadishu – including the country’s deadliest attack that killed over 300 people – show that the threat remains significant. While many of the underlying drivers are common, the prevailing patterns of conflict and violence in Somalia differ between the country’s regions according to their specific histories, institutions and governance. While decentralization is intended to lead in the longer term to improvements in governance and accountability, the process of creation of Federal Member States has added to the complex dynamic as new claims of influence and territory are tested. There is also violently contested territory in the frontiers between areas (for example between Somaliland and Puntland and between Puntland and Galmadug FMS). II. Interactions between Conflict and Drought There is a growing body of evidence showing a causal relationship between extreme weather events and the incidence of civil conflict at the global level.236 237 Maystadt and Ecker238 demonstrate this causality for droughts and local violent conflicts for Somalia between 1997 and 2009: one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length is estimated as raising the likelihood of conflict by 62 percent. The authors also found that the impact of drought on local conflict was mediated through livestock price shocks, which increased the incentives for conflict. The drought in Somalis has likewise exacerbated conflicts over pasturelands and natural resources. ‘Conflict or violence’ was significantly the most frequently cited of the difficulties or shocks in the survey undertaken for this Assessment in October 2017, with almost one in four households having experienced in the past In addition to drought’s exacerbating conflict, drought month.239 Figure 33 provides a visual representation of and conflict, both independently and in combination, the relationship between drought and conflict. cause displacement. The two are so closely entwined as drivers of displacement that it is not always possible Somali culture recognizes the association between war or meaningful to distinguish between them. As Lindley and drought (col iyo abaar) in a saying: Ilaahow Col observes of the 2011 drought: ‘severe structural Iyo Abaarba Naga Hay / Oh God, Spare us from both violence and years of ongoing armed conflict strongly war and drought! The antithesis is captured in another shaped the experience of drought by different groups traditional saying, ‘nabaad iyo caano’ (‘peace and milk’), in society, and whether they were forced to migrate recognizing the association of prosperity with security.  ACLED. 235  2017a. ‘Somalia: 2017 update.’ Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Base. September 22, 2017. http://www.crisis.acleddata.com/ somalia-september-2017-update/ Hsiang, S., K. Meng, and M. Cane. 2011. Civil Conflicts are Associated with the Global Climate. Nature 476 (7361): 438–441.  236  Burke, M., E. Miguel, S. Satyanath, J. Dykema, and D. Lobell. 2009. Warming Increases the Risk of Civil War in Africa. Proceedings of the  237  National Academy of Sciences 106 (49): 20670–20674.  Maystadt, Jean-Francois and Olivier Ecker. 2014. ‘Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia. ‘Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock 238  Price Shocks?’ American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 96(4): 1157–1182; doi: 10.1093/ajae/aau010. Published online March 25, 2014 IPSOS. 2017. ‘2017 Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA): Report for The World Bank October 27’. IPSOS.  239  Ibid. 240  Cross-cutting Sectors | 147 © | SomaliaMohammed IOM/Muse 148 Drought Impact & Needs Assessment or not’.241 Of 1,334,000 internally displaced between of 4,282 reported fatalities (an increase by one third January 2016 and September 2017, 339,000 (25 percent) over the previous year).246 The rate of civilian targeting were classified in UNHCR statistics as ‘conflict/security’ by al-Shabaab, however, at 11 percent, is significantly related, and 950,000 (71 percent) as ‘drought related’. lower than that of comparable groups, and also of clan ‘Conflict-driven’ displacement was more geographically militias within Somalia itself.247 This is related to the focused, with 71 percent being displaced from just one organization’s wide strategic repertoire for consolidating of Somalia’s 18 regions, Lower Shabelle (South West power and resources. In addition to armed conflict, al- State). Displacement classified as drought-driven was Shabaab pursues its interest through the exploitation more evenly spread across the country.242 of local grievances (including those of minor clans and minorities); active negotiation between local groups; The situation in Lower Shabelle itself illustrates two of trade and contraband; extortion; and taxing the local the characteristics of conflict and violence in Somalia: population through demands for ‘zakaat’ (literally their locally specific and shifting dynamics; and the brutal alms intended for the poor). The organization also has toll that they exact on local populations. Lower Shabelle, international networks of finance and recruitment. Somalia’s second most populous region, is home to a multitude of clans and minorities, and regarded Social Impacts of Conflict, Drought and Displacement as the country’s breadbasket. With a history of land expropriation and other injustices, the region has more In situations of conflict and natural disaster, social recently seen urbanization, migration, and displacement groups that are already vulnerable are likely to suffer that have resulted in shifts in demographic dominance most. In the Somalia context, this has been especially between clans, stoking tensions that have led to armed true of minority clans and other minority ethnic groups. conflict between clan militias. The SNAF (Somali National While data on the population of minorities in Somalia is Armed Forces), AMISOM (UPDF) and al-Shabaab, have sparse and contested, UNOCHA in 2002 estimated that all been drawn into these conflicts in various ways, often they comprised one third of the population.248 In many through temporary and opportunistic alliances. As a cases, these groups, generally unarmed, had previously result of the violence, civilian communities have been the been deprived of their access to land and lack the victims of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), gender- necessary networks to access other resources, including based violence, recruitment of child soldiers, financial physical and political protection. Marginal groups also extortion at check points, inaccessibility to humanitarian lack access to international remittances, a critical coping aid, and the destruction of houses, livestock, harvests mechanism for better-placed social groups. and businesses. The limits formerly set on violence Data on the social composition of those affected by the by customary law, according to which children, recent drought is limited. However, evidence from the women and the aged were to be protected, have 2011 and 1991 droughts indicates that those dependent increasingly been disregarded – as has occurred in other on agricultural labor were particularly hard hit, and that conflicts in Somalia.243 the famine-affected population was predominantly The very large number of armed groups active in Somalia drawn from two ‘minority’ ethnic groups, the Reewin – 128244 – underlines the complex and multi-polar nature (a minority clan) and the Bantu (descendants of former of violent conflict. The most significant of these groups slaves and indigenous farmers concentrated in the inter- is certainly the violent jihadist organization al-Shabaab, riverine regions of Southern Somalia). These groups which, despite a gradual reduction in the territory that it had been subject to years of marginalization and controls, has been responsible for increasing asymmetric predation. Crop production is particularly vulnerable attacks, especially in urban areas.245 Al-Shabaab was to both environmental hazards and conflict conditions, involved in 911 violent events in 2016, more than any while irrigation systems have been degraded other group in Africa. These events resulted in a total since the 1990s.249  Lindley 241  Anna. 2014 ‘Questioning “drought displacement”: environment, politics and migration in Somalia’ Forced Migration Review 45, 39-43. February. UNHCR. 2017. Somalia – Internal Displacement: Displacements Monitored by UNHCR Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN).  242  https://unhcr.github.io/dataviz-somalia-prmn/index.html. See also Displacement section. Somalia Protection Cluster. 2016. Conflict and Protection Analysis – Lower Shabelle, June 2016.  243   ACLED. 2017b. ‘Al Shabaab and Boko Haram: Patterns of Violence.’ Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Base. October 9, 2017. http://www. 244  crisis.acleddata.com/al-shabaab-and-boko-haram-patterns-of-violence/ World Bank. 2017. Somalia Security and Justice Sector Public Expenditure Review. United Nations Mission in Somalia and World Bank, Led by Paul  245  Zacchia and Bernard Harborne. January. Ibid. 246  247  Ibid. 248   Hill, Martin. 2010. No Redress: Somalia’s Forgotten Minorities. Minority Rights Group International. http://minorityrights.org/publications/no-redress- somalias-forgotten-minorities-november-2010/ 249   Majid, Nisar and Stephen McDowell. 2012. ‘Hidden dimensions of the Somalia famine’. Global Food Security 1(1): 36-42. December 2012. Cross-cutting Sectors | 149 Displacement inevitably induces further marginalization and development aid is unavoidably mediated through and conflict. The growing population of urban IDPs adds existing power structures. Intermediaries may limit the to the contestation around key resources and services distribution of assistance to groups not allied to them or in urban areas and increases the vulnerability of already lacking in political capital, reinforcing the dependency marginalised groups. Minority groups are less able of vulnerable groups on the politically better than others to establish rights to land for residence placed and aggravating existing tensions, grievances and livelihoods in the areas to which they have become and inequalities. displaced. Contestation over land is a source of conflict and violence in both urban and rural areas. The tenure As is now well documented, the intended beneficiaries system is complex, combining multiple normative of humanitarian and development assistance, especially systems, a history of dispossession of weaker groups, in camps, are vulnerable to extortion in the ‘hostile and contestation at all levels.250 and abusive environment’ created by criminals, camp gatekeepers, and other intermediaries.253 Al-Shabaab Women and children, especially where households are has at times expelled or excluded aid agencies from the female-headed or have become displaced or divided, territory which it controls, though more often has sought are vulnerable to violence and deprivation.251 Other to use them to its advantage through a combination of vulnerable groups include those lacking livelihood or regulation, taxation and surveillance.254 employment opportunities, and those traumatized through exposure to violence. Conflict diminishes Somalia’s security situation also has fiscal consequences resilience and options for recovery by households relevant to the funding of drought response and and individuals. An insecure environment restricts development services. International partners spend trade and freedom of movement and thus potential some USD 1.5 billion a year on peacekeeping, livelihood strategies. counterinsurgency and support to the Somali security sector (much more if anti-piracy measures are included), Violent conflict has an especially corrosive impact on while the FGS in 2014 and 2015 spent 45 percent and social relations and social cohesion. By definition, 33 percent of the national budget respectively (USD violence represents a breakdown of social relations 68 million and USD 44 million) on security. Numerous between the conflicting parties. In addition, those who informal armed groups and militias also extort millions are its victims suffer social and psycho-social disruption, of dollars annually in predatory ‘taxes’ on citizens.255 often loosing family and local support networks as households and communities are split, increasing III. Recovery Needs vulnerability (to deprivation, violence, extortion, forced eviction etc.) and further eroding their resilience. What Needs to be Addressed Conflict and Drought Response The National Consultation Conference on a Framework for Reconciliation, which met in Mogadishu in mid-2017, The conflict and security situation exerts a very attested that ‘twenty-seven years of widespread and direct impact on drought response, as well as their sustained armed conflict has left Somali communities effectiveness. Insecurity places severe restrictions on wounded, fractured, trust-deficit and deeply divided’.256 access by humanitarian aid and development assistance, The present analysis has traced some of the roots as well on trade and freedom of movement. In the of this degradation of social capital and underlines first ten months of 2017, humanitarian organizations the importance of re-establishing social cohesion in were subjected to 130 violent incidents, with 15 situations of conflict and drastic social change (due to persons killed, 32 injured and 30 abducted.252 Security drought, violence, displacement, etc.). The process of challenges mean that the distribution of humanitarian  NRC. 250  n.d. Land, Property and Housing in Somalia. Norwegian Refugee Council, UNHABITAT and UNHCR.  See Gender and Displacement sections. 251  UNOCHA. 2017. Sarah Otuku. Personal Communication.  252  Human Rights Watch. 2013. Hostages of the Gatekeepers: Abuses against Internally Displaced in Mogadishu, Somalia; Bryld, Erik, Christine Kamau  253  and Dina Sinigllia. 2013. ‘Gatekeepers in Mogadishu: Using informal governance resources in Mogadishu’. Research byTana and IDC for the Somalia Cash Consortium; Bryld, Erik, Christine Kamau, Soren Knudsen Moller and Mohamed A Mohamoud. 2017. ‘Engaging the Gatekeepers in Mogadishu’. Tana for IAAAP Somalia Accountability Programme.  Jackson, Ashley and Abdi Aynte. 2013. ‘Al-Shabaab engagement with aid agencies’. Overseas Development Institute Humanitarian Policy Group 254  Briefing paper no. 53. World Bank. 2017. Somalia Security and Justice Sector Public Expenditure Review.  255  256 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. National Development Plan (2017-2019). 150 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment successfully implementing well designed and conflict educational status, especially among minorities and sensitive drought response activities will itself contribute IDPs. Along with education, technical and vocational to the rebuilding of relationships within and between training, credit, and employment schemes will also have communities, and between government and citizens, their place. These are addressed in more detail in other the more so if these are formulated through local sections of the report.259 consultations and built upon community strengths. Disputes over land are a driver of conflict, as are past How These Needs Should be Addressed expropriations. In a context of rapid urbanization, The drivers and impacts of conflict are both complex insecurity of land tenure is also a major factor impeding and interconnected. They will therefore be best the capability of the urban poor and displaced persons addressed through an integrated approach that brings from establishing stable residence and livelihoods, and together humanitarian, recovery and developmental is thus a driver of future conflict, crime and violence, and approaches in order to address long-term poverty and a factor in potential recruitment to violent jihadi groups. marginalization. Two elements in particular will build Somalia’s National Development Plan recognizes the resilience against both future drought and conflict. These need to develop national land and urban policies, are: first, restored economic growth, employment and specifically with a focus on climate change mitigation reduced inequality; and second, increased legitimacy of and natural disaster planning. Stable and equitable government and public institutions through transparency policies are needed for both development and the and improved performance. settling or resettling of the displaced. The issues are very complex, and Somalia’s partners should consider Drought response interventions must be designed supporting a participatory deliberative process aimed at so as to contribute to the reduction rather than the developing consensus on a way forward on land tenure exacerbation of conflict. This conflict analysis has and management.257 demonstrated the ways in which social and political factors have determined the differential human impacts The conflict analysis outlined here supports the priority of drought. The design of drought response must given in other sections of this assessment (including equally take account of this context if intervention is to those on urban and displacement) to a focus on be effective. Understanding of social and conflict factors urban development so as to address urban poverty can be achieved through tools such as political economy and marginalization, including that of the displaced. analysis and conflict sensitivity, and provision needs to In addition to land policy, this would entail a focus on be made explicitly for such analysis in response design. infrastructure, shelter, services and livelihoods, and the development of smaller urban centers.258 Construction Political economy analysis considers the interaction of could itself be a major opportunity for developing skills economic and political processes, and the distribution and employment opportunities. of power and resources within society. Since all conflict is ultimately conflict over resources (material, political or Youth unemployment has been identified as a driver of symbolic), understanding the current ‘rules of the game’ conflict. Support for establishing productive livelihoods regarding resource distribution is essential to providing would accordingly help to establish the conditions for a effective responses. This is especially important when more peaceful and stable Somalia. As recognized in the institutions function in ways and towards ends that National Development Plan, sustainable rural livelihoods are at variance with those that are formally or publicly require sound environmental and natural resources stated, as is very often the case in Somalia. These rules management policies along with rural services. The of the game will follow general patterns for the society, employability of urban youth is limited by their very low yet must be understood specifically for each implementation context. See  257  Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resources, Agriculture – Livestock, and Urban Development and Municipal Services sections. See Urban Development and Municipal Services section.  258   See Livelihoods and Employment section. 259  Cross-cutting Sectors | 151 © IOM/Muse Mohammed Conflict sensitivity could be seen as a more operational vulnerable groups (e.g. minority clans and ethnic and circumscribed version of political economy groups, the displaced, female-headed households, analysis that can be tailored to the design of drought the elderly). This should include an understanding of responses. A guiding principle of the approach is to ‘do relevant differences within these groups (for example no harm’, either inadvertently through intervention, or between those displaced by the recent drought, the by not providing support where this is needed. Conflict longer-term displaced, and other marginalised urban sensitivity involves considering both the effects of dwellers; between young women and young men). conflict on drought response activities and the effects of These understandings should be developed through drought response activities on conflict. In taking account diagnostic work linked to specific interventions. of conflict dynamics and security constraints, planning Mechanisms and resources should also be included and implementation should be informed by an overall not only for this analysis, but for the effective inclusion vision of how each intervention will contribute to peace and communication with affected groups, especially the and stability in the medium- to long- term. Distribution most vulnerable, during implementation. and targeting will be important concerns here, though by no means the only ones. The implications of intervention Design and implementation need also to be alert to will vary considerably by context, depending on the the potential negative consequences of intervention in region and social/demographic group concerned, even exacerbating violent conflict. If not carefully targeted, down to community level. Proposed interventions must resources (including funds, goods, and employment therefore take account of Somalia’s marked regional and opportunities) may exacerbate existing inequality and local variations in ecology, livelihoods systems, social exclusion and – if some groups are perceived as more systems, political power and governance, as well as favored than others – increase tensions. The allocation rapidly shifting patterns of conflict. of resources may likewise strengthen the legitimacy of some actors while sidelining others. Assets may be Given the ways in which conflict and drought have captured or otherwise misdirected. External resources in the past amplified existing social divisions and may substitute for local products or distort local markets. inequalities, design should give particular attention In navigating these potential hazards, and developing a to the circumstances and needs of marginalized and sound delivery and targeting strategy, the selection of 152 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment partners and the building of institutional capacity will be compounded by cyclical environmental challenges, critical. Once again, this will draw upon the kind of close including periods of acute drought and famine, and understanding of the underlying pattern of stakeholder floods. Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) surveyed in power and influence – both at formal and informal Mogadishu (which, with 369,000 IDPs hosts the largest levels – that comes from political economy and conflict number of displaced in the country) cited the primary sensitivity analysis. reasons for initial displacement, including armed conflict (75 percent), natural disasters (49 percent), and loss of In summary, in the design of drought response, resource livelihoods (19 percent).263 allocation, needs assessment and selection criteria should all be evidence-based, transparent, and rooted The persistent and recurrent nature of these drivers in an understanding of the social and conflict context. means that displacement is often protracted and may Monitoring and evaluation should also address social take complex and cyclic forms. Communities may suffer and conflict issues, so that lessons can be learned multiple displacements through forced evictions, new about what works in particular circumstances. In the cycles of violence in the locations in which they have medium and longer term, these considerations apply sought shelter, or renewed violence and climatic disaster to the development of policy frameworks (e.g. for on return. The profiling survey conducted in Mogadishu service delivery) as much as to specific responses. Such indicates, for example, that 46 percent of IDPs in knowledge is an indispensable foundation to action, Mogadishu had moved multiple times before arriving at as ill-considered intervention is not only wasteful but their current residence. 31 percent faced evection over causes real harm. The fate of many earlier attempts the previous six months, and 37 percent feared eviction to build institutions or implement programs in Somali in the coming six months.264 ought to be sufficient lesson in this regard. Forced displacement often affects groups that are already socially and politically marginalized, and for the Displacement communities and households affected, it compounds catastrophe. Evidence from previous droughts shows that marginal groups and minorities are most likely to I. Overview and Pre-Drought Conditions be displaced. Displacement generally follows violence, Current drought conditions compound pronounced the collapse of livelihoods, or another catastrophe. This development deficits and humanitarian challenges in contributes to the break-up of communities, often the Somalia, including existing rates of acute and protracted division of households, and the loss of remaining assets. displacement. The recent drought has caused the Added to this, the displaced face a hazardous journey to internal displacement of 926,000 persons between liminal, often insecure environments. November 2016 and September 2017, with 171,000 recorded as displaced by conflict in the same period.260 Forced displacement, which typically takes place from These displacements represent only the latest wave of rural to urban areas, is contributing to the increasing forced displacement in Somalia, adding to a pre-existing urbanization of Somalia and the creation of a caseload of 1.1 million people, who already accounted disenfranchised urban underclass in formal and informal for almost 9 percent of the total population.261 Prior to the urban settlements. High rates of rural-urban migration drought, nearly one million Somalis also fled the country due to insecurity, livelihoods failure, climatic shocks, and reside as refugees in other countries, including in including through conflict-related restricted movements particular Kenya, Yemen and Ethiopia.262 Taken together, of pastoralists, and the absence of basic services, has these displacements constitute massive humanitarian resulted in rapid urban growth; rates of urbanization and developmental challenges for Somalia. within Somalia currently rank amongst the highest in the world. The recently displaced join those displaced by While the immediate causes of most displacements in earlier crises, the urban poor and economic migrants in Somalia are climatic disaster and violent conflict, the formal settlements or in unplanned informal settlements underlying drivers are multiple and complex. They stem with slum-like conditions, placing further pressure on from decades of internal multi-layered conflict, insecurity, meager resources, and contributing to social tensions. political uncertainty, land expropriations, human rights While some urban infrastructure exists (such as water violations and governance failures. These factors are supply, sanitation and paved road networks), much  UNHCR. 260  2017. Somalia – Internal Displacement: Displacements Monitored by UNHCR Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN). https://unhcr.github.io/dataviz-somalia-prmn/index.html FGS. 2016 National Development Plan 2017-2019. Final, October 2016. Federal Government of Somalia.  261  UNHCR. 2016a. “Refugees in the Horn of Africa: Somali Displacement Crisis” http://data.unhcr.org/horn-of-africa/regional.php (as of 24.06.2016)  262  Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. April.  263  Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. April.  264  Cross-cutting Sectors | 153 is weak; for example the primary source of urban surveyed IDPs are illiterate compared to 50 percent of power remains fossil fuel generators and solid waste host communities and 57 percent of economic migrants; management is stretched. The particular development illiteracy rates for are even higher for displaced women challenges extending from the intersection between and girls. In addition, the attendance gap is large, with rapid urbanization and forced displacement and 42 percent of host community youth aged 5+ attending migration are provided in greater detail in the Urban school as compared to 28 percent in IDP communities.267 Sector Assessment. The survey also indicates that IDPs present the poorest health situation, with 44 percent having one member Urbanization challenges linked to displacement are sick in the last three months, compared to 34 percent heightened in light of Somali refugees returning from of economic migrants. IDPs live in often temporary neighboring countries, particularly from Dadaab Refugee housing built from inferior materials compared to the Camp in Kenya. In May 2016, the Government of Kenya host community, and may have to rely upon small-scale announced intentions to close the Dadaab Refugee vendors for water of low quality at high price.268 269 Camp and has identified return of refugees to Somalia as part of the phase-out strategy for the camp. While Housing, land and property is also an ongoing challenge the majority of refugees (75 percent) have expressed a for IDPs in Somalia. Due to growth in demand, IDPs lack desire to remain, voluntary and spontaneous returns are access to affordable housing and do not have secure underway; nearly 40,000 returnees from Dadaab returned housing and land tenure, which leaves them vulnerable to Somalia by end 2016, particularly to urban areas in and to evictions and drives IDPs to the margins of urban around Kismayo, as well as Baidoa and Mogadishu.265 areas. These issues are exacerbated by the absence of up Refugee returns from Dadaab and neighboring countries to date legal and legislative processes and the fact that are anticipated to worsen development deficits by IDPs have not been considered in urban development increasing stress on fragile and limited basic services; policy and planning. In 2016, for example Mogadishu many administrations have already reached or exceeded hosted the largest number of IDPs at 369,000270 of which their absorption capacity to manage these arrivals. In the 46 percent had moved multiple times before arriving at absence of comprehensive socio-economic integration their current residence. In addition, 31 percent of IDPs and development support, returnees are likely to surveyed in Mogadishu faced eviction over the course of become IDPs themselves. six months while 37 percent feared eviction in the next six months.271 Addressing the humanitarian and development needs of this complex mix of displacement affected Access to livelihood and economic opportunities for IDPs populations—including IDPs, returnees and the are limited. Unemployment and absence of livelihoods caseload of refugees seeking asylum within Somalia— are persistent challenges in Somalia, particularly is a significant challenge particularly in light of existing affecting youth populations – around 65 percent of youth development deficits and vulnerabilities in host between the age of 15 and 35 are unemployed, one of communities. IDPs are consistently more vulnerable and the highest youth unemployment rates in the world.272 have a lower standard of living than host communities, While IDPs employ a range of coping mechanisms to though all face poverty and deprivation. Nine out of ten support household needs, including seeking income IDPs living in camps live in poverty, and the internally and employment in urban centers, opportunities are displaced account for more than two-thirds (68 percent) limited and unemployment rates are highest among of those in crisis and emergency. Rates of malnutrition IDPs. IDPs who do work are most likely to be engaged are particularly high among IDPs, with nearly 215,000 in menial or casual labor, often only on a daily basis. children aged under five acutely malnourished, of whom Begging and child labor, and other forms of labor almost 40,000 are severely malnourished and face a exploitation are common. Despite the importance of high risk of disease and death.266 Other development remittances as an important source of income and social indicators, while very poor for Somalia as a whole, are protection for many Somali households, only a small even worse for IDPs. IDPs have higher rates of illiteracy share of IDPs rely on remittances; evidence indicates for as compared to host counterparts—the IDP profiling that remittance flows only reach 7 percent of IDPs survey in Mogadishu indicates that 72 percent of rely on remittances.273 IDPs also often face exclusion, UNHCR.  265  2016b. Refugee Population Verification Exercise.  FGS. 2016 National Development Plan 2017-2019. Final, October 2016. Federal Government of Somalia. 266  Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. April.  267   Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. April. 268  FGS. 2016 National Development Plan 2017-2019. Final, October 2016. Federal Government of Somalia.  269  UNHCR. 2016a. “Refugees in the Horn of Africa: Somali Displacement Crisis” http://data.unhcr.org/horn-of-africa/regional.php (as of 24.06.2016)  270  Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. April.  271  UNFPA, 2014. 272  273  World Bank. 2017. Somalia Poverty Profile 2016. World Bank, Washington, DC.  154 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment exploitation and abuse, including the denial of payment Displaced women and girls are among the most for work they have done. Absence of viable livelihood or vulnerable populations—to extreme poverty, employment opportunities for displaced youth or young marginalization, conflict and climate-related shocks such returning refuges increases feelings of marginalization, as drought. Displaced women face multiple constraints frustration and dislocation, which can in turn increase including lack of adequate shelter, limited economic engagement in illicit or criminal activities or vulnerability opportunities and lack of control over critical resources, to recruitment to armed groups. including access to land, finance and other inputs. Female IDPs also face unique risks of GBV and sexual Displacement frequently creates or deepens social exploitation due to limited security in the IDP settlements, exclusion. Poverty and deprivation caused by loss of poor living conditions and limited clan protection. While assets and livelihoods are sustained and reinforced rates varying across time periods, the GBV Information by political, social and cultural processes. As noted, Management System reveals that between Jan 2015 to IDPs frequently come from minority groups and clans, June 2016, 73-78 percent of survivors of GBV were female who suffer discrimination based on presumed identity, IDPs. The attendant separation of many women and girls appearance, livelihood group, place of origin, etc. from community and familial support structures, as well as Others may have lost the links of clanship and patronage from traditional livelihoods activities, also contributes to networks that provide political protection and security. an increased reliance particularly of women on marginal, Political disenfranchisement extends from the absence inconsistent and hazardous livelihood strategies, which of opportunities for IDPs and returnees to participate often increases exposure to violence. meaningfully in civic life, whether through traditional decision-making structures or through more formal Access to land is critical to several dimensions of positions in public office. The physical isolation of IDPs displacement in Somalia. First, conflicts over land who are increasingly located in more liminal, peri-urban themselves drive violence and displacement. Second, areas may add to their marginalization. The result is for the displaced, security of housing and land tenure increasing exclusion, whereby individuals or groups are are amongst the uppermost concerns: IDPs in urban prevented from full participation in social, economic areas are constantly at risk of evictions as powerful and political life and from asserting their rights. Social interests assert claim to land of increasing commercial exclusion derives from exclusionary power relationships value, making livelihoods and shelter precarious. Third, resulting from social identity (e.g. age, gender, ethnicity, in many cases, the land and property of the displaced in clan/tribe or religion) and/or social location (areas that their home areas has been appropriated. A sustainable are remote, stigmatised or suffering from war/conflict) return will depend upon its ownership being resolved.278 or a combination of those.274 As a result of their social Access to justice and redress for IDPs in cases of abuse, exclusion, IDPs are less able to restore viable livelihoods harassment, eviction and other violations is limited, and living conditions, and less in a position to integrate however. Such protection is traditionally offered through with the society of the host community. They are also clan affiliation. Displaced populations, however, are more vulnerable to predation, exploitation, coercion, often unable to access mechanisms for redress either acts of violence and wider deprivation. due to power imbalances between majority and minority clans (from which IDPs often extend), or due to lost clan Many displacement camps institutionalize and exploit connections and mechanisms for protection. social exclusion through the well-documented abuses of ‘gatekeepers’, the managers of IDP camps who use the displaced to attract and divert humanitarian assistance.275 II. DINA Findings and Drought Impact 276 277 These gatekeepers are generally linked with local The current drought, combined with increasing incidence power structures and interests. In addition to extortion, of conflict, has rapidly accelerated rates of internal camp residents are subject to numerous protections displacement in Somalia. Between November 2016 and challenges and other forms of abuse, including gender- September 2017, 926,000 persons were displaced due based violence (GBV).  DG-ECHO. 274  2016. Improving protection outcomes to reduce risks for people in humanitarian crisis. European Commission Directorate-General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (DG ECHO) Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Thematic Policy Documents no 8. May 2016 Human Rights Watch. 2013. Hostages of the Gatekeepers: Abuses against Internally Displaced in Mogadishu, Somalia.  275  Bryld, Erik, Christine Kamau and Dina Sinigllia. 2013. ‘Gatekeepers in Mogadishu: Using informal governance resources in Mogadishu’. Research  276  byTana and IDC for the Somalia Cash Consortium. January.  Bryld, Erik, Christine Kamau, Soren Knudsen Moller and Mohamed A Mohamoud. 2017. ‘Engaging the Gatekeepers in Mogadishu’. Tana for IAAAP 277  Somalia Accountability Programme. Updated March 2017. UNHCR. 2016a. “Refugees in the Horn of Africa: Somali Displacement Crisis” http://data.unhcr.org/horn-of-africa/regional.php (as of 24.06.2016);  278  NRC. n.d. Land, Property and Housing in Somalia. Norwegian Refugee Council, UNHABITAT and UNHCR; Rift Valley Institute. 2017. Land Matters in Mogadishu: Settlement, ownership and displacement in a contested city. Rift Valley Institute and Heritage Institute for Policy Studies. Cross-cutting Sectors | 155 to drought, while 171,000 others reported as displaced by conflict in the same period, particularly from Lower Shabelle.279 Drought contributed to the displacement of 540,000 people in the three months from February to April 2017 alone.280 Since then, recent rates of displacement where drought was given as the primary driver appear to have slowed to 27,000 in August and 30,000 in September 2017.281 Recent displacements extend primarily from rural to urban and peri-urban areas. Displaced populations are moving from villages in Lower Shabelle, Bay, and Mudug and even parts of Ethiopia to urban centers in Baidoa, Benadir, Gedo, Lower Juba and Togdheer regions. Mogadishu (Benadir region) alone has received 234,000 IDPs since November 2016, with 175,000 of these deemed drought-related as a primary driver of displacement. This brings the total number of IDPs in the city to 545,000, living in 840 sites. Bay region, also in the southwest, and including Baidoa, received 248,000 IDPs in the same period in, almost all classified as drought-related. According to the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, there are now 234 confirmed IDP sites in Baidoa. Further north, huge losses of livestock in Puntland and Somaliland have resulted in pastoral dropouts and displacement. Sool and Sanang regions have registered 128,00 drought-related displacements, as well as 3,000 conflict-related displacements, while in Togdheer and Woqoooyi Galbeed region, Somaliland, drought-related displacements are estimated to be 80,000. As of June 2017, approximately 36 percent of sites in Garowe were established within the past six months and the majority of sites in both Garowe and Eyl are within the host community.282 Recent displacements further combine with continuing returns from Kenya, which amount to nearly 28,000 between January – June 2017.283 Women and children account for the highest rates of those newly displaced. Multiple data sources indicate a relatively even split between female- and male-headed households, with a weighted average across sources of 50.1 percent and 49.9 percent respectively. 59 percent fall under the age of 18.284 Women and children under the age of 18 therefore account for more than three-  Caution 279  is needed when interpreting this data, however, as displacement generally extends from multiple causes. While drought may be identified as a primary driver, displacements in Somalia reflect strong protection drivers and challenges linked to wider social marginalization. PRMN, 2017. 280  281  UNHCR, 2017. 282  IOM. 2017. Displacement Situation Report, Nugaal Region, June 2017.  283   Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat. 2017. Self-Reliance and Resilience for Displacement-Affected Communities in Somalia. ReDSS/Somali NGO Consortium Brief. http://www.regionaldss.org/highlights/redss-somali-ngo-consortium-brief-self-reliance-and-resilience-displacement-affected 284  Weighted data provided by the UN Protection Cluster aggregating data across multiple sources.  156 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment quarters (76 percent) of those displaced. In some livelihoods. Displacement further reinforces drivers cases, families separate and children and women move of social exclusion and marginalization; new IDPs are to towns, while men stay behind with the remaining perceived as outsiders due to their minority status, and livestock. In other cases, preemptive movement may be are therefore unable to become “permanent residents” undertaken by the strongest family members, leaving but may have “temporary sanctuary” according to behind young children, women and the elderly, a coping local authorities. They are also rendered vulnerable to strategy informed in part by availability and positioning “gatekeepers” who extract a percentage of assistance of assistance by humanitarian actors. resources for themselves.285 The influx of displaced to urban areas reinforces earlier New IDPs face severe nutritional and food security patterns of vulnerability and deprivation, compounding challenges. Assessment of nutritional status of the pressure on services, land, and other resources. New displaced 12 main urban locations hosting IDPs in arrivals frequently join existing, congested settlements, Somalia indicates that Global Acute Malnutrition or establish temporary sites. It is foreseen that with the (GAM) is at ‘critical’ level (classified as between 15 continuation of localized conflict, people from rural areas and 30 percent) in 9 of the locations, and ‘very critical’ will continue to move to urban centers in increasing (above 30 percent) in one location (Dhusamareb). There numbers and join settlements for internally displaced was continued deterioration of nutritional status and if the climatic situation and security environment increased mortality among particular groups, including continues to remain unfavorable in these areas. It can IDPs in Baidoa and Mogadishu. Among Baidoa IDPs, be anticipated that at least some of the more recently GAM more than doubled from 14 to 29 percent between displaced will wish to return to their home areas, though December 2016 (post-Deyr) June 2017 (post-Gu). In the the feasibility of return will be highly dependent on the same six months in Baidoa, Severe Acute Malnutrition re-establishment of security and other conditions for (SAM) cases rose from 3 percent to over 10 percent. viable livelihoods. Morbidity rates (an important contributing factor to nutrition status) were also high (FSNAU 2017 Post-Gu Figure 34, which is based on remote sensing imagery assessment Preliminary Survey Presentation). from 21 April 2017 and 13 July 2017 (a period after the peak of drought-related arrivals), highlights the IDPs further confront serious access constraints to basic establishment of new IDP shelters in the vicinity of services that impede resilience to drought. A recent Baidoa. Analysis of the images shows an increase of 67 survey conducted to assess the impact of the current percent in shelters in less than three months. Area 2 is drought reveals that IDPs are 2.4 times more likely than the most densely populated and indicates the 7,000 new host community members to report dissatisfaction with shelters, reflecting the growing population of displaced the quality of water they access and 2.5 times more likely that have settled around the city. to experience problems with water points, including overcrowding. IDPs were also 2.3 times more likely to Figure 35 analyses new shelters within the vicinity of have to walk more than 30 minutes to access water. Mogadishu based on remote sensing imagery from This survey also found that IDPs were also 2.5 times between March 2016 and June 2017. It indicates an more likely to have no access to medical health services increase of 6,000 informal households during the and nearly 4 times more likely to report having limited period, likely due to the influx displaced households. (poor/fair) ability to access care services. They were also These include over 600 informal tents around and substantially more likely to report having poor/fair health approximately 522 formal tents. The most significant status.286 Increasing rates of displacement are also likely increases have been in the areas around Daynile and to disrupt the education cycle of many. An increasing within Heliwa and Karaan. number of displaced school children are not attending schools or are attempting to access already overcrowded While more granular demographic profile information facilities. Lessons from the 2011 drought indicate that a is still needed, a significant share of drought-related good number of children never returned to school after displacements likely extend from minority clans, who the long recess. have lost assets including their homes, livestock, and Jubaland  285  Refugee and Internally Displaced Person’s Agency (JRIA). 2016. A report on the profiles of Internally Displaced Persons living in camps of Kismayo. Jubaland, Somalia https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/final_-_kismanyu_idps_assessment_report_final_version.pdf Ipsos estimations, 2017. 286  Cross-cutting Sectors | 157 Drought is also pushing groups to flee the country. forced marriage are prevalent features in Somali society, Nearly 7,000 people have crossed into neighboring a recent assessment conducted by the Protection Ethiopia and Kenya since November 2016.287 Since the Cluster further revealed that 59 percent of respondents start of the year, more than 3,770 Somali new arrivals indicated early marriage is more likely in the context have been recorded at Melkadida in Ethiopia, and of the current drought due to monetary incentives acute malnutrition has been reported in around 75 and the assumption that the husband will care for the percent of arriving child refugees. As the situation child bride.293 further deteriorates, population movements to Ethiopia continue, with reported 1,182 exits to Ethiopia reported Additional protection risks for children include family in June alone.288 It remains a possibility that some of the separation and child recruitment, arbitrary arrest, drop most vulnerable in Jubaland and beyond will choose to out from or lack of access to education, hazardous child cross to Kenya, however no substantial movement into labor, and elevated exposure to forms of GBV including Kenya has been reported so far.289 assault, trafficking, and psychosocial distress. A recent analysis of these risks highlights incidence of grave Forced evictions also present a significant challenge both violations between January- August 2017 affecting to those confronting protracted and recent displacement. nearly 3,500 people, with nearly 3,000 incidents affecting Recent displacements align with increasing rates of forced children (463 girls and 2,502 boys). Just over 1,200 of evictions, particularly among IDPs settling on private these cases involved child recruitment by armed forces land290 thereby increasing the likelihood of experiencing and groups, the majority of which (78 percent) are displacement on multiple occasions. Between January- attributed to al-Shabaab.294 Security constraints and February alone, over 26,000 individuals from Southern lack of capacity impede provision of care for affected and Central Somalia were evicted, while nearly 110,000 children; only 12 percent of children affected by grave IDPs have been evicted in 2017 in total. In September violations during this time received support services 2017, nearly 9,000 people were evicted in Mogadishu (e.g. community engagement, psychosocial care and and Baidoa alone.291 In Mogadishu, those evicted often medical support). move to liminal environments on the city’s periphery, with limited security or access to basic services or III. Recovery Needs needed resources. There is speculation that increasing rates of eviction may reflect increased rent-seeking Addressing the accumulated caseload of displaced behavior from gatekeepers and landowners seeking will be a central challenge both to drought recovery to profit off humanitarian assistance targeting those and to the longer-term stability and development of newly displaced.292 Somalia. Drought recovery programming should lay the foundation for the achievement of durable solutions for Increasing rates of displacement also compound displaced populations, refugee returns and affected protection challenges, particularly affecting displaced communities. The rapid expansion of displaced women and children. Between April and June 2017, populations, combined with challenges confronting the Gender-Based Violence Information Management existing rates of displacement, return and wider poverty System (GBVIMS) reported a 9 percent increase in and vulnerability, highlights the need to move beyond reported rates of GBV—including physical and sexual care and maintenance to a holistic, longer-term approach assault, as well as child sexual abuse—between the first advancing self-reliance, resilience and socio-economic and second quarter of 2017. Of these cases, over three- integration through partnerships with government, quarters of survivors are IDPs. The report noted that humanitarian and development actors at all levels. most incidents occur at night indicating that darkness in settlements enables incidence, as does distance The FGS has a central role to play in leading this process. between shelter and WASH facilities and congestion The Government has committed to the development of in settlements. Critically, the GBVIMS indicates that a comprehensive approach to addressing displacement community or camp leaders are a first point of contact in Somalia. Inclusion of reference to durable solutions for survivors seeking care, while the majority of services in the NDP reflects the broader, ongoing evolution of sought included psychosocial care (47 percent) and the issue from a humanitarian priority to a government- medical/health services (33 percent). While early and led development responsibility. The Government,  OCHA. 287  2017b. Humanitarian Dashboard: SOMALIA: April 2017.  IOM DTM. 2017. Border points flow monitoring (June 2017). http://www.globaldtm.info/somalia-border-points-flow-monitoring-june-2017/ 288  OCHA. 2017a. Operational Plan for Famine Prevention, January-June 2017. February 2017.  289  OCHA. 2017b. Humanitarian Dashboard: SOMALIA: April 2017.  290  291 UNOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Bulletin: October 2017. Ibid. 292  293  (United Nations Protection Cluster 2017, draft).  294  Ibid. 158 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment through the National Commission on Refugees and While some returns to rural communities are possible, IDPs, has also formulated a National Policy on Refugees presently the majority of Somali IDPs as well as many and IDPs that is framed along the commitments made returnees fall within the second and the third categories. by the FGS within the framework of the IGAD Nairobi Safe and voluntary return may not be feasible, due to Plan of Action.295 Any drought-related recovery strategy ongoing insecurity and absence of basic services, or should seek to build on the framework outlined by the desirable for those unwilling to return. Precedents in Government within such initiatives. Somalia and evidence from other contexts show that once people have ‘burnt out’ their safety nets in the Response to drought- and conflict-related displacement rural areas and a situation is protracted, they are likely to challenges should further seek to build on existing stay in urban areas.298 There is a demonstrated positive initiatives to address displacement, including ongoing correlation between the duration of displacement in policy dialogue and analysis under the Somalia Solutions an urban context and the likelihood for IDPs to Unit of the Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat permanently remain. (REDSS) and Durable Solutions Initiative, which proposes an operational framework and set of operating principles Further, there a tendency to underestimate of the for durable solutions interventions in Somalia,296 297 as number of IDPs who stay in urban areas. This is partly well as align with humanitarian priorities articulated due to the widespread assumption that these IDPs under the emerging Humanitarian Response Plan. would return to their rural place of origin once situations are ‘normalized’. The reality is, even in contexts where In the context of the current drought and in light of drought conditions may improve, prolonged conflict enduring instability and conflict conditions, three and violence may deter return of the displaced due categories of interventions should be distinguished to to safety concerns, while some also continue to stay advance durable solutions and longer-term recovery for on for economic reasons. The Internal Displacement displacement-affected communities: Profiling survey conducted in Mogadishu in 2016 found, for example, that only 37 percent of those surveyed Where conflict or drought has ended, and under •  indicated an interest in return.299 In this context, it is conditions in which displacement-affected crucial to highlight that the loss of housing, land and communities demonstrate agency and ability property assets in the place of origin and potential for safe, dignified and voluntary return, recovery return is one of the most conspicuous consequences interventions ideally should be sought in of displacement that bears substantially on livelihood communities of origin restoration and physical security. Where return is not possible for the time being due • to persistent effects of conflict, drought or other Given the context of rapid urbanization within which protection challenges: displacement and return takes place, recovery interventions fostering self-resilience and local For those unwilling to return, opportunities for • integration in urban centers and secondary towns local integration should be sought early on; therefore remain a priority. At the same time investing For those willing to return, measures to • in rural solutions to support return and reintegration enhance early recovery, resilience and of displaced populations, as well as wider recovery of degree of self-sufficiency should be drought-affected communities, should be pursued as sought pending return. well. Key populations of concern include: For those displaced within areas affected by • Populations in peri-urban and urban areas • ongoing conflict or drought, measures to enhance (including existing and new IDPs that intend their safety and resilience should be taken to the on staying in urban areas/are unable to return, extent possible. host communities, various vulnerable and minority groups), and https://igad.int/communique/1519-communique-special-summit-of-the-igad-assembly-of-heads-of-state-and-government-on-durable- 295  solutions-for-somali-refugees 296  These include i) leadership and primary responsibility of the State for providing solutions; ii) alignment of durable solutions interventions with  national frameworks including the NDP; iii) collective responsibility between different state and none state actors; iv) integrating humanitarian, development, peace and state building approaches and multi-sectoral interventions; v) combining rights and needs based approaches; vi) addressing the needs and vulnerabilities of protracted and drought induced IDPs, Refuges and host communities simultaneously and in a comprehensive manner, considering the respective specificities; vii) ensuring inclusive participation through community based approaches; viii) ensuring context specific solutions through area based approach; ix) mainstreaming protection, through conflict sensitive and gender/ age sensitive approaches. 297  Durable Solutions Initiative (DSI). 2016. Partner Engagement Framework, September 2016.  298   OCHA. 2017b. Humanitarian Dashboard: SOMALIA: April 2017. 299  Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. April.  Cross-cutting Sectors | 159 • Populations in rural/remote areas (including IDPs service provision needs. Detailed delineation of that intend on returning to these areas/places of urban infrastructure investments to respond to origin, ‘stayees’/host communities, and various displacement-related challenges and to enable vulnerable and minority groups). wider resilience and recovery—including housing and shelter, water and sanitation, as well as health Recovery interventions should align with the five and education access—are outlined in the Urban developmental priorities to enable durable solutions Sector Assessment, as well as in the Education highlighted in the National Development Plan, including: Sector and Health Sector Assessments. i) rule of law and governance; ii) access to land and tenure security and inclusive development; iii) individual Strengthen protection and social cohesion: • documentation, social inclusion and participation; Attention should be directed to addressing iv) access to services and labor markets; and v) rural particular vulnerabilities of IDPs and host reintegration capacity. In addition, it should build on communities, including reunification/protection of existing initiative to address displacement, including unaccompanied children, widows, the elderly and the Durable Solutions Initiative which proposes a set of support for survivors of GBV. Specific targeting operating principles for durable solutions interventions should focus not only on the displaced but in Somalia.300 also host communities to support and sustain community cohesion. Interventions should further Urban solutions, including sustainable local aim to promote cohesion through community- integration in urban and peri-urban areas based participatory processes. Enabling improved delivery of response services for survivors of GBV is Support displacement affected populations with the also addressed in the Gender Assessment. intention of remaining in urban areas. Strengthen land tenure security: Recovery efforts • While humanitarian support will focus on addressing should support the development of national basic needs (food, water and sanitation, and emergency frameworks, laws and policies related to land, land shelter); access to basic services (education and use planning, housing (and particularly housing health), and support for early recovery, including basic solutions for IDPs). At local levels, capacity of local livelihoods and psycho-social support, the recovery district councils and regional decision-making strategy (medium and longer-term development bodies should include strengthening in areas of responses) should advance longer-term multi-sectoral/ land, land use planning and construction sectors, multi stakeholder response in key urban areas to improve as well as administrative and judiciary land dispute self-reliance, resilience and socio-economic integration resolution mechanisms. of respective vulnerable populations. At the community level, interventions • Recovery interventions should include efforts to: should concentrate on awareness-raising of displacement affected populations regarding • Address key data gaps: It is critical to enable housing, land and property rights and support improved data collection and analysis to to community-led upgrading of settlements or understand better the profile and perspective rehabilitation of neighborhood. of displacement affected populations to inform Promote livelihood opportunities: Recovery • resilience and recovery programming. This includes interventions should focus on improving the addressing persistent information and analytical employability of displacement population through gaps linked to gender, age, skills and opportunities. skills and vocational training, putting in place • Improve infrastructure and service delivery: pro-employment policies, supporting an enabling The focus will be to ensure urban infrastructure business environment, providing public works and services are developed as part of sound schemes, as well as supporting the rejuvenation urban planning and development processes of small industrial sector. Creating new jobs lead by central and local authorities, to absorb and addressing unemployment would not only the current and foreseen caseload and address contribute to generate incomes for the displaced  This 300  principles include: i) leadership and primary responsibility of the State for providing durable solutions; ii) alignment of durable solutions interventions with national frameworks including the NDP; iii) collective responsibility between different state and none state actors; iv) requiring a combination of humanitarian, development, peace and state building approaches and multi-sectoral interventions; v) combining right and need base approaches; vi) addressing the needs and vulnerabilities of protracted and drought-induced IDPs, refuges and host communities simultaneously and in a comprehensive manner, considering the respective specificities; vii) ensuring inclusive participation through community based approaches, viii) ensuring context specific solutions through area based approach; and ix) mainstreaming protection, through conflict sensitive and gender/age sensitive approaches. Durable Solutions Initiative, Partner Engagement Framework, September 2016. 160 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment populations, as well as host communities it would Graduated approach to a continued cash transfers • also be critical for stimulating local economic program, along with livelihood training; development, making cities work, and providing Strengthen service delivery and response systems • youth with alternatives to violence. that offer protection to the displaced, with • Strengthen government leadership and particular sensitivity and emphasis on women and accountability, as well as wider public participation: girls affected by GBV; Recovery interventions should aim to support Undertake rapid and sustained investments to • Government institutions at local and central alleviate pressures on services and infrastructure levels to advance solutions and respond to for displaced, returning and host communities (e.g. displacement challenges in Somalia, to be more access to health facilities and schools). accountable and transparent, and better able to respond to the various needs of the displaced Strengthen monitoring: • populations at all levels of government. Recovery Monitor if cash targeting is working • interventions should align with existing efforts to effectively to enable the most vulnerable build institutional capacity to lead development to receive the benefits; responses to displacement and to support Maintain robust tracking systems that enable • government-led policy dialogue at the regional mapping of displacement movements and level, e.g through IGAD. Interventions should potential new arrivals; further support establishment of legal frameworks and policies that support durable solutions for Monitor social tensions triggered by • displacement affected communities, including displacement (including grievances over development of a formal policy on internal forms of assistance); displacement and reintegration of returnees. Monitor the pressures of IDP presence • • Strengthen opportunities for improved on services and infrastructure of host consultation, participation and wider civic communities, and engagement: Recovery initiatives should enable Monitor impact on displaced on livelihood • engagement of displacement affected populations opportunities of hosts. in participatory systems to ensure their voice and Medium-term interventions (Years 2-3): interests are included and represented in local decision-making bodies and dispute resolution Where possible, support solutions for IDPs • mechanisms. Interventions should further support to settle outside settlements and avoid a default processes seeking to improve agency and into IDP settlement by identifying alternative land realizations of rights of displaced populations, tenure arrangement with the government or including through envisaged processes private land owner; linked to personal identity documentation and civil registration. Support improved IDP personal identify • documentation and civil registration; Critically, all interventions should adopt a differentiated, needs-based lens, recognizing the heterogeneity of Provide complementary assistance and • status, needs and constraints affecting IDP populations. invest in alternative livelihood options for IDPs and host communities; More specific interventions and monitoring can be Support basic service delivery and construction of • temporally addressed in this manner: small scale infrastructure, in collaboration with the government and through sound urban planning Short term interventions (Year 1): processes. Endeavour, as much as possible to • Strengthen data collection activities to improve decentralize services in secondary towns; understanding of profile and needs of displacement Support social cohesion through participatory • affected communities (including improved planning processes; collection of sex- and age-disaggregated data) Cross-cutting Sectors | 161 © UNSOM • Wider/host community support in terms of Rural Solutions, including return and reintegration provision of services, infrastructure building and in places of origin: maintenance, protection for livelihoods that might Supporting rural resilience and recovery to enable return be affected by presence of displaced/jobs trainings. and reintegration of displacement affected populations. Long-term interventions (Years 4+): Assessment of conditions for return through • • Support capacities/legitimacy of state and local area-based analysis: Recovery activities aimed to authorities to promote recovery and resilience of promote return will only be feasible if there are IDP populations and to lead longer-term durable viable conditions for families to (re)settle safely in solutions (DRM, HLP, Urban planning, Community areas of origin/return. Central to this consideration based participatory planning, etc.). is the need to conduct sufficient analysis and data collection at the places of return/origin about Promote land tenure security through improved • security, access to basic services and livelihood, etc. policies and frameworks, including improved to make informed decision about the sustainability land use planning and safety of the return and to develop an Piloting of government-led social protection • operational framework that provides guidance on safety net programming; how return and resettlement should take place in a safe, dignified and voluntary manner. Continuation collection and analysis of population profile data both of returning populations and communities of return are necessary to ensure appropriate targeting and inform effective and appropriate programming. 162 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment • Restoring/enabling livelihoods, market access Where possible and feasible due to access issues, • and strengthened value chains: Early to medium- deliver immediate assistance as close to the rural recovery initiatives should include a basic package population as possible based on monitoring of of startup assistance to to restore livelihoods— access and availability of water and food through cash transfers, skills development and Medium-term interventions (Years 2-3): livelihood support—reactivate local markets, re- establish access to social services and facilitate the Support sustainable return processes through (i) • reintegration of IDPs into local communities. This systems for compensation/recovery of lost assets may include the provision of food support (including housing, land, property, livestock etc.) (ii) and agricultural/ productive inputs and support ensuring return areas are generally safe and have for the initiation of new livelihood activities in re-integration support systems (iii) establishment of areas of resettlement. land/property dispute resolution mechanisms Alleviate pressure on basic services such as water • Provision of cash transfers (6 months)—startup • and sanitation, health and nutrition, and education: funding for initial basic consumption and lost assets Investment in needed socio-economic infrastructure Support restoration or repair of housing, • will be critical to incentivize return, improve access rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure to basic services and managing increasing demand (e.g. water systems) extending from returning populations. Support re-establishment of social services • Support social cohesion across displacement • (e.g. health, education) affected communities, including returnee populations and host communities/those who Support restoration of livelihoods: • stayed: It will be important to establish mechanisms Agriculturalists – ‘start-up’ package to provide •  for managing tensions that are likely to emerge inputs for production, restoration/replacement from reintegration/return processes, including of production equipment etc. through communications and sensitization process, Pastoralists – restocking of livestock, • as well as management of land and property provision of veterinary services. disputes, whether through traditional or formal justice structures. Support for improved market access • and strengthened value chains for partial Strengthen capacity of local authorities: Recovery • returns (including those with family members interventions should aim to support local authorities in urban areas) to respond displacement and reintegration challenges in rural/remote communities, to be Support for communications and sensitization • more accountable and transparent, and better able initiatives, and dispute resolution mechanisms to to respond to the various local level needs of the facilitate improved social cohesion. returning and host populations. Strengthening capacity of local authorities to • Interventions and monitoring can be temporally deliver basic services and respond to wider needs addressed in this manner: of displacement affected communities. Longer-term interventions (Years 4+): Short-term monitoring (Year 1): Development investments in places of return, with • Where possible, maintain population profile •  an emphasis on building on existing projects and a data of the displaced including key assets lost prioritization of the use/capacity-building of local (e.g. land and livestock), to enable a baseline systems to ensure sustainability. for eventual recovery; Assess conditions in for safe return through • area-based solutions analysis; Monitor social tensions that may arise between • stayees/hosts and returnees, particularly in early stages of return and support social cohesion interventions to minimize tensions; and Cross-cutting Sectors | 163 Table 49: Summary Needs for Displacement Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Urban and Peri-Urban Areas Collection of sex- and age- National X X 2,000,000 disaggregated profile data of displaced and returning populations Monitoring costs (social cohesion, National X 500,000 displacement movements, etc.) IDP personal identity documentation National X 1,000,000 and civil registration Capacity building of state and local National X 1,000,000 authorities to promote recovery and resilience of IDP populations Community-based participatory National X X 2,000,000 planning processes Support for the participation in civic National X X 1,000,000 life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence in displacement affected areas Promoting land tenure security National X 500,000 through improved policies and frameworks, including improved land use planning Development and adoption of federal National X 500,000 and state level policy on internal displacement and reintegration of returnees Rural and Remote Areas Assessment of conditions for safe National X 500,000 return through area-based solutions analysis Collect population profile data National X 1,000,000 on remote/rural Skills development and National X X X 12,000,000 livelihoods restoration Support for market access and National X X 1,000,000 strengthened value chains for partial returns (including those with family member remaining in urban areas) Support strengthening National X 1,000,000 of local authorities Communication and sensitization National X 1,000,000 to support re/integration of IDPs and to enable participation in civic life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence Establish/strengthen transparent National X 1,000,000 dispute resolution mechanism to manage land disputes Total Displacement Needs 26,000,000 164 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and spread of diseases such as acute watery diarrhoea, Drought Resilience cholera and measles has increased. In the first seven weeks of 2017, over 6000 cases and 65 deaths by acute watery diarrhoea/ cholera were reported.304 Middle Juba I. DRR Risk and Profile Background and Bakool regions reported alarming fatality rates, far The humanitarian crisis in Somalia is among the most above the emergency threshold of 1 percent, according complex protracted emergencies in the world.301 Somalia to World Health Organization (WHO). is highly vulnerable to disasters; the country ranks 15th on the list of the developing countries at highest disaster II. DRM Legal, Policy and Institutional Arrangements risk.302 Drought and inconsistent Gu and Deyr rainfalls in Somalia are a relentless, underlying threat. Somalia has endured multiple, severe droughts, with historical trends showing After the breakout of armed conflict in the early 1990s, droughts occur regularly at intervals of 2-3 years in the state institutions collapsed. There has since been a Deyr and 8-10 years in consecutive Deyr and Gu seasons. vacuum in terms of comprehensive and coordinated disaster management policy and institutions. As a result, In addition to drought, Somalia is exposed to the risks of hundreds of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), floods and other hazards, as describe below: both national and international, United Nations (UN) agencies, religious groups and donor assistance have provided humanitarian aid in response as a lifeline for Floods communities to survive during and after disasters. Some Floods are an annual phenomenon with the most of the regions within the country, namely Somaliland severe occurrence during the months of March-May and Puntland, have developed autonomous institutions and September-November in the riverine areas along as regional governments in these areas took control. the two rivers, Juba and Shabelle. Riverine and flash In the rest of the country, the absence of any unified floods occur in areas around the Juba and Shabelle river governance structure meant that uncoordinated valleys every year between April-June and October- and ad hoc mechanisms to deal with disasters have December. Limited infrastructure, including flood-bank become the norm. While these may have constituted retaining walls and water catchment or redirection the only humanitarian assistance for affected people, systems, expose the communities to the effects of floods a comprehensive approach to dealing with disaster annually, often with disastrous results on smallholder risk management, risk reduction, mitigation, response farmers and rural economies.303 The regions of Lower and recovery has not received due attention until Shabelle and Middle Shabelle are most affected, with recently. Summarized below are the institutions/policy croplands, houses and infrastructure like feeder roads frameworks that have informed disaster management in periodically destroyed, besides affecting the livelihood of Somalia so far: pastoralist population. Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) Other hazards: In 2011, during the large scale humanitarian crisis Somalia is prone to other hazards as well. These include provoked by drought, the FGS announced that the cyclones and storm surges with the 2013 cyclone killed Cabinet had approved draft legislation based on the nearly 300 people, ranking as the being the second Prime Minister’s Decree, on a new Somali Disaster deadliest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2013 as well Management Agency (SoDMA), which had originally as the deadliest in Somalia’s history. As part of the been proposed by the Ministry of Interior. SoDMA East African rift system, Somalia is prone to moderate has since been mandated to lead and coordinate the earthquakes, of magnitude varying between 4 and 5.5. government’s response to various natural disasters in The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 had its ripples in the country. The institution has been entrusted with Somali as well, with most of the damage centered in formulation and enforcement of national disaster policies the coastal parts of the Puntland State in northeastern and regulations at regional and federal levels as well as Somalia. Drought and flood-related water borne close collaboration with various government ministries, diseases are common. During the current drought the governmental agencies and other bilateral partners.  United 301  Nations Development Programme (2015): Somalia PROJECT DOCUMENT - Project Title: Enhancing Climate Resilience of the Vulnerable Communities and Ecosystems in Somalia. p13  UNOCHA. 2015. Humanitarian Response Plan - Somalia, 2016. November 2015. 302  Ibid 303  304  WHO (2017). WHO scales up response in Somalia as drought-affected population face difficult situation, 27 February 2017  Cross-cutting Sectors | 165 The SoDMA-led disaster management road map is now contingency plans and disaster risk management included in the National Development Plan (NDP) and functions for their respective regions. Their structures its resilience pillar with well elaborated implementation and presence quickly fade away further down the line at phases over the next 3 years’ period (2017-2020). the districts and community level. However, it is hoped that with the creation of the new FGS structures, the FGS and FMS will be better placed and capacitated to Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster undertake the humanitarian and disaster recovery and Management (MHADM) resilience related needs in the country. Formed in 2017, the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MoHADM) is the principal Somalia National Development Plan (NDP) institution at the federal level with the mandate to manage The NDP affirms responsibility towards building and coordinate all humanitarian affairs as well as all and mainstreaming effective disaster preparedness aspects of disaster mitigation. Key among the ministry’s and response to disasters. The NDP emphasizes an responsibilities will be to finalize and push through the approach to resilience through inclusive development enactment of the National Disaster Management Policy. and integration of the displaced and returnees based SoDMA has now been coopted within the ministry as a on issues of poverty and exclusion, and vulnerability major department that coordinates disaster response to disasters. The NDP outlines the following key and risk management. As it is new, the ministry has intervention strategies: a number of challenges to grapple with, the most important of which is understaffing, lack of technically • Develop a national disaster management policy; skilled personnel to execute its agenda and inadequate funding to roll out its programs across the country. Systematically map hazard risks and vulnerability • to disasters and food insecurity is mapped systematically, then update and share across all National Environment Research and Disaster levels of government; Preparedness (NERAD) Agency and Humanitarian Develop preparedness activities at regional • Affairs and Disaster Management Authority and federal levels as well as early warning/food (HADMA) security systems; In 2006 Somaliland set up the National Environment Establish local disaster response mechanisms to • Research and Disaster Preparedness (NERAD) Agency, work together with Government, private and local which reports to the President of Somaliland at the interests to ensure the safety of the local population regional level. The NERAD has a fully developed from disaster; legal framework defining its mandate, functions and accountability.305 The Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Establish SoDMA information and Coordination • Management Authority (HADMA) was set up by the Centre at national and regional levels; Puntland government in 2005, with mandate for Working with relevant ministries at federal state • managing disasters within the region.306 and federal level, repair or construct key infrastructure that can reduce the impacts of Although the Ministry and these agencies coordinate flood, drought or conflict; with humanitarian organizations in their regions, they are under-resourced both financially and in human Establish national supply hubs in 10 disaster • resource terms, with inadequate capacity to implement prone districts.307 Final  305  Draft National Disaster Management Policy, Somalia 2017 Final Draft National Disaster Management Policy, Somalia 2017  306  The Somalia National Development Plan (SNDP) – Towards Recovery, Democracy and Prosperity 2017 – 2019  307  166 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The Draft National Disaster Management Policy As part of the DRR investment strategy recommended in the NDP, the FGS is developing the National Disaster Management Policy. The specific objectives of the policy are to: Guide and clearly identify responsibilities for • various aspects of disaster management at all levels of government; Facilitate mainstreaming of disaster risk • management into planning and delivery processes within the FGS at all levels; Promote measures and establish mechanisms • to prevent or reduce natural or man-made disasters in the country; Develop an effective system for mapping hazard • risks, vulnerability to disasters and conducting comprehensive disaster risk assessments and monitoring at all levels; Develop an integrated and effective early warning • system that is comprehensive and effective; Promote a culture of safety and resilience • amongst disaster risk management stakeholders, including communities; assess and address underlying risk factors; Strengthen the disaster preparedness system for • effective response and recovery at all levels; Provide a framework for coordination and • management of all natural or man-made disasters in the country. III. Disaster Risk Financing in Somalia The objective of national disaster risk financing is to improve a government’s ability to clarify and meet obligations arising from shocks while minimizing threats to development and fiscal stability. In the case of drought, key benefits that can be drawn from a functioning risk financing mechanism include: (i) securing advance funding to support post-disaster response; and (ii) supporting a rule-based food procurement strategy that provides the policy certainty that a commercial response complements humanitarian responses. Risk financing strategies for drought may help cushion the risk of food price increases, reduce the risk of supply shocks exacerbated by poor planning and bottlenecks in the supply pipeline, and ensure the continuity of humanitarian interventions. © UNSOM Cross-cutting Sectors | 167 Recent practice and current state of risk financing, domestic resource mobilization is very limited, financing in Somalia with government revenues amounting to only 2 percent of GDP in 2016. Somalia has a contingency budget, Donors play a significant role in financing development with an allocation of USD 2.3 million in the revised 2017 as well as humanitarian relief in Somalia. In 2016, official budget, which can be used for emergency expenditures development assistance (ODA) for Somalia amounted on the authority of the Minister. to USD 1.3 billion, equivalent to 21 percent of Somalia’s 2016 GDP. Of that amount, 48 percent was humanitarian Overall, Somalia is very dependent on external aid for aid and 52 percent development aid. From 2007 - 2016, disaster response. This is evidenced by the significant the average proportion of humanitarian ODA out of spike (of 221 percent) of humanitarian ODA flows in total ODA has been 58 percent, with development ODA response to the 2011 drought. Available data for 2017 accounting for the remainder. Only a small fraction of also suggest a significant spike in response to the ODA is channeled through government systems, with ongoing drought, with reported humanitarian flows only 8 percent of development aid being “on treasury” in already 52 percent higher than in 2016, when flows were 2016. Actual budget expenditure in that year amounted already above the average of the past 10 years. to USD 171 million, which is only 13 percent of ODA. While both the 2011 and 2017 spikes occurred in response Both humanitarian aid and development aid flows have to drought-related crises, there is a big difference in the been volatile in the past. Between 2017 and 2016 year- speed of delivery and the trigger point. In 2011, the flow on-year changes in humanitarian aid flows ranged from of extra funding was not triggered until a famine had a reduction of 46 percent to growth of 221 percent. already been declared in Somalia. In 2017, donors were Development aid flows are steadier, but annual changes rapid in front loading planned humanitarian assistance still ranged from negative 24 percent to 94 percent. and increasing their overall envelopes from what had been planned in response to drought, even no famine Remittances are another key source of external financing has been declared to date. for Somalia, while foreign direct investment flows were equivalent to 12 percent of GDP. Compared to external  2014-18 308  data drawn from Somalia Aid Flow Mapping Exercise (annual exercise led by government supported by the World Bank and UN); 2007-2013 data drawn from OECD dataset - Dataset: Aid (ODA) disbursements to countries and regions [DAC2a]: http://stats.oecd.org/OECDStat_Metadata/ ShowMetadata.ashx?Dataset=TABLE2A&ShowOnWeb=true&Lang=en - Data extracted on 24 Aug 2017 14:37 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat / *2017 data as of October, 2017. 168 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Addressing Drought Risk response and maximize resources. OCHA has an office in Nairobi and Mogadishu and sub-offices in Baidoa, In the case of droughts, risk financing strategies need Bossaso, Dhobley, Doolow, Gaalkacyo, Garowe and to be closely integrated with policies and investment Hargeysa. It is also present in Belet Weyne and Kismayo. decisions related to agriculture and food security. Drought risk needs to be addressed through a combination of OCHA is the part of the United Nations Secretariat and policy and financial measures which include national is responsible for bringing together humanitarian actors contingency / emergency reserve, the need to finance to ensure a coherent response to emergencies. OCHA’s augmented supplies of food grains, support subsidies mission is to: or social safety nets for vulnerable populations, and in acute situations, ensure the continuity of Mobilize and coordinate effective and principled • humanitarian responses. humanitarian action in partnership with national and international actors in order to alleviate Given capacity challenges, technically sophisticated human suffering in disasters and emergencies. instruments, such as sovereign level insurance, are unlikely to be practical in Somalia for the near future. • Advocate for the rights of people in need. Also, conflict exacerbates both the impact and response • Promote preparedness and prevention. to natural disasters, in ways that could potentially affect • Facilitate sustainable solutions. the ability of insurance companies to underwrite the risk of natural disaster shocks in Somalia. The Humanitarian Response Plan Contingency funds and/or contingent grants are more In line with the purpose of the Grand Bargain from the likely to be feasible financial solutions in the case of World Humanitarian Summit to anticipate and prepare Somalia. Somalia has a contingency budget, with an for crises, deliver protection and assistance better to the allocation of USD 2.3 million in the revised 2017 budget, most vulnerable and to restore opportunity and dignity which can be used for emergency expenditures on the to them, donors have moved quickly to commit or pledge authority of the Minister. The contingency budget needs more than USD 672 million towards the response efforts, to be increased further.309 as of 7 May 2017. This unprecedented level of early support in the Somalia context has enabled operational Given the volatility of ODA flows and past experience agencies to rapidly reach millions of Somalis with safe with delayed response, initial DRF efforts could focus water, food and medical assistance. Cash and voucher on ensuring that external sources of financing are in programs have also been scaled-up with more than 1.4 place ex-ante to respond quickly to future disasters at million vulnerable people in ‘Crisis’ and ‘Emergency’ (IPC sufficient scale. Such funds could then be disbursed Phases 3 and 4) reached in March alone. A significant based on stages of drought in question. The success of scale-up of nutrition services has also taken place, such instruments will depend on donor/partner interest with 332,000 children and women treated in March, of in shifting their own operational modalities to support whom 69,000 are severely malnourished children under collective, pre-planned, rules-based financing. the age of five. International Humanitarian Assistance To curb the large-scale outbreak of AWD/Cholera, joint rapid response teams have been deployed to some of the In the absence of organized government mechanisms, most hard-to-reach areas, supporting local responders the United Nations Office for the Coordination of in treating the sick and preventing further spreading of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has mobilized and the disease. Livestock treatment has been significantly coordinated humanitarian efforts in Somalia since ramped up with 8.4 million animals reached since March, 1999. It aims to ensure a well-coordinated, effective helping to prevent further destitution. These services and principled inter-agency humanitarian response. By are increasingly integrated across Water, Sanitation providing a coherent approach to humanitarian action and Hygiene (WASH), Health, Nutrition, Food Security in Somalia, OCHA helps to avoid duplication of aid Federal Republic of Somalia, Appropriation Act for 2017, Revised Budget, Act No. 00011  309  Cross-cutting Sectors | 169 and other sectors to gain maximum impact. However, In 2017, the following principles are guiding scale-up for some sectors like Protection, Emergency SHF allocations: Shelter/ Non-Food Items (NFI), has not been achieved due to consistently low levels of funding. Humanitarian Continued focus on famine prevention life-saving • partners are utilizing a number of innovative and joined humanitarian response. up approaches, including cash transfers, rapid response Prioritization of direct implementation through • teams, and strong risk management and coordination international and national non-governmental units enabling more effective “real time management”. partners, accounting for at least 70 percent of There is also focus on linking lifesaving actions with available annual SHF funding; resilience efforts, to enable early recovery of livelihoods Support for local partners by striving to reach the • and longer term solutions. global target of at least 25 percent of available The massive humanitarian scale-up has been instrumental funding to be channeled directly through national in averting famine thus far, but the situation continues to partners (if, when and where feasible); deteriorate and the risk of famine is on the increase in Support funding for pipelines, enabling programs • worst affected areas. and other support services provided by UN agencies, funds and programs, but also NGOs, up to a maximum of 30 percent of annually Somalia Humanitarian Fund (SHF) available funds; The Somalia Humanitarian Fund (SHF) is a multi-donor Seek integration and complementarity with other • country-based pooled fund established in 2010 to funding sources, such as Central Emergency support the timely allocation and disbursement of donor Response Fund (CERF), to ensure timely and resources to the address the most urgent humanitarian efficient prioritization in support of a stronger needs in Somalia. Almost USD 400 million was allocated collective response and maximum impact of by SHF for humanitarian response in Somalia since limited resources. 2011. The SHF has been essential for enabling timely, coordinated and effective humanitarian action due to its distinct comparative advantages – the unearmarked The World Bank Response nature of the Fund; the established and functioning The World Bank in May 2017 approved a USD 50 million accountability systems; integration within the existing emergency project - Somalia Emergency Drought coordination systems; and flexibility. The SHF has two Response and Recovery Project (SEDRP, the Project) allocation modalities: - to scale up the drought response and recovery • The standard allocation modality, used for large effort in Somalia. This is being implemented through and medium-size strategic allocation rounds, FAO and ICRC. This is in addition to the on-going typically once or twice a year. The standard “Strengthening Capacity for Disaster and Climate-Risk allocation strategy is approved by the HC and Management in Somalia”, a project funded to the tune endorsed by the SHF Advisory Board and is the of USD 450,000. It aims to improve the capacity of the basis for project submissions. governments of Somaliland and Puntland to respond to El Nino and future climate events. It is framed around  he reserve allocation modality is primarily •T three components: intended for the rapid and flexible allocation of funds for individual allocations in the event of Developing an immediate El Nino • sudden emergencies or rapidly deteriorating response strategy; situations, or to address the quickly emerging Developing a response strategy for future • strategic needs. climate events; and The Humanitarian Coordinator (HC) for Somalia Building networks for longer-term development. • oversees the fund and decides on SHF funding allocations. In its role, the HC is supported by the UN The project runs from June 2016 with the expected Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs completion date being November 2017. (OCHA) that manages the Fund on a day-to-day basis, the SHF Advisory Board and the Somalia cluster coordination structure. 170 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment IV. Effects and Impact of the Drought In the absence of effective DRM institutions, the combination of climatic shocks such as drought and The back to back drought episodes have had the floods, compounded by conflict have resulted in full- devastating effect of diminishing any possibilities of the scale humanitarian crises. The inheritance of conflict affected communities to bounce back. Their livestock, in Somalia has weakened the capacity of government which is their main source of livelihood has not been institutions to address consequences of disasters such able to regenerate and recover in numbers. This has as El Niño or other climate-related challenges and resulted in a vicious cycle of poverty. The droughts have natural hazards. Disaster risk management actors and had a devastating effect on most of the preexisting associated response strategies are fragmented and do water sources, leading to their progressive and then not necessarily reflect current theory or best practice in definitive drying-up. For instance, due to poor rainfall disaster risk management. International donors support experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin climate change adaptation or resilience building during the previous rainy season, coupled with over programs. However due to the lack of overarching utilization of the river water in Somalia and Ethiopia, a regional strategies these are generally undertaken as significant reduction in the water levels in Shabelle River standalone projects in specific areas that are unaligned to has been witnessed, according to the Somalia Water and more cohesive or comprehensive government policies. Land Information Management (SWALIM). DRM preparedness and response is predominantly the domain of international actors, minimizing efforts to The country is witnessing a near total crop failure, rising build capacity of local institutions to manage or respond livestock deaths, epidemic outbreaks and reduced rural to disasters or climate-related shocks. This undermines employment opportunities. Poor households, including government responsibility, and sustains the capacity those displaced, face rapidly diminishing food access, as challenges and dependency on non-state actors which staple food prices continue to rise sharply and livestock prevails in Somalia. prices decrease. In Mogadishu, prices of coarse grains increased up to 35 percent. In most markets of key Somalia faces lack of technical and operational disaster maize producing region of lower Shabelle, maize prices risk reduction capacities in all zones of Somalia. The surged in January by 32-41 percent. Overall, prices of Government has little capacity to conduct hazard coarse grains in January in key markets of central and assessments and multi-sectorial assessments are usually southern Somalia were up to twice their levels of 12 conducted by different clusters led by Development months earlier (FAO). The impact of war and civil strife Partners and other stakeholders. Access to many especially in south central Somalia has only aggravated districts is still restricted due to conflicts and responses an already dire situation. It has curtailed access to and don’t reach all affected communities. Somalia’s growth of the much-needed markets both for crop unpreparedness to disasters is exacerbated by the and livestock products. No meaningful service delivery nonexistence of an early warning system and poor and infrastructure development takes place with most dissemination of EW information. For the past 5 years, government structures having failed. This has had the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) Somalia a negative impact on health in view of the already Water and Land Information Monitoring (SWALIM), prevailing water-bone and sanitation related diseases Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) and also on job creation and human development given Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) and the week education systems. USAID’s Famine and Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) initiatives have focused on improving The current humanitarian situation in Somalia continues regional forecasting for Somalia, making use of the to deteriorate and an elevated risk of famine persists in rehabilitated network of monitoring stations in addition some parts of the country. At its peak, over 6.7 million to stations abroad (Kenya, Djibouti). people were estimated to be in need of protection and humanitarian assistance, more than half of the population of Somalia.310 Major disease outbreaks are spreading, with an increase in cases of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/Cholera and measles. UNOCHA. 2017. Somali: Humanitarian Dashboard – July 2017  310  Cross-cutting Sectors | 171 © IOM/Muse Mohammed V. Recovery Needs budgetary allocations from the central government to achieve its role. However, initially this funding Institutional Strengthening and Capacity responsibility needs to be taken up by the international Development community and partners. A. Training and capacity-building support for DRR Disaster mainstreaming and creation of mechanisms institutions for risk-informed development across different sectors, states and social segments through multidisciplinary The newly created Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs coordination, risk analysis and effective early warning is and Disaster Management (MoHADM) needs to be a critical responsibility for the ministry for which capacity supported to recruit qualified personnel to run its development is also urgently required. agenda both at the national and subnational level. Beyond recruitment, personnel from this ministry need B. Disaster Risk Management Policy to undergo urgent tailor made short training courses to equip them with humanitarian coordination skills. They The role of a comprehensive disaster risk management also need to be trained on rapid and post disaster needs policy in coordination and provision of direction to assessment techniques. In country agencies like FAO drought and disaster management cannot be over have the technical capacity to provide some of these emphasized in any country. There is need for the tailor-made courses and advantage should be taken MoHADM to move with speed and as one of its of the opportunity. This will be the first step towards foremost responsibilities to finalize and push for the entrenching the role of response coordination into the enactment of the draft comprehensive Disaster Risk hands of the ministry unlike the current situation where Management Policy. As a medium-term plan, efforts this role is largely played by the international community need to be made to harmonize this policy with those of and non-state actors. other states/ regions that may already have their own existing policies. This will ensure harmonization of the Providing the necessary financial resources will be critical functions of the various institutions regional or otherwise towards the effective implementation of the disaster that exist and are involved in disaster risk management recovery strategy. The ministry needs to secure annual across the country. 172 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment C. Setting up a DRR Financing Mechanism; Additionally, regional risk pools are providing countries access to market-based insurance through pools, Contingency funding for disaster response and thereby helping to lower the cost of insurance for mitigation needs to be entrenched within the central individual countries. Examples include the Caribbean government financial system. As part of the efforts to Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), the Pacific build resilience capacity for Somalia as enshrined in the Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (PCRAFI), and much National Development Plan, the draft National Disaster closer home the African Risk Capacity (ARC). Regional Management Policy proposes the establishment risk pools are able to leverage insurance coverage of a National Disaster Management Fund (NDMF), from the market and these existing opportunities need with contributions from the FGS, local organizations, to be explored. businesses and international donors. The Fund will be managed by the MHADM with oversight from the NDMC, and as per the regulation of National Audit Livestock insurance as a risk transfer mechanism office. The policy proposes that the fund be applied to Livestock farming and pastoralism is the mainstay of finance the following: the economy of Somalia. It is at the same time the most adversely affected sector whenever drought strikes. This • Implementation of disaster preparedness; is therefore the one sector that needs to be protected • Emergency response; through a risk transfer mechanism. Short-term rehabilitation measures and planning • Somalia can borrow lessons from this livestock insurance of recovery/reconstruction activities. concept that is already beginning to take root among Post-disaster budget re-allocation which involves re- the neighboring countries to Somalia like Kenya and assigning funds that have been programmed for other Ethiopia. As a starting point, knowledge transfer/ purposes to meet more immediate needs can be an exchange and capacity development in this field can initial fall-back position towards raising contingency planned for between the government/ MoHADM and funding. While opportunity costs can be high, particularly the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in if funds are not replaced and re-programmed, this is a Kenya that has piloted a similar scheme with technical fairly standard way of accessing the immediate liquidity and financial support from the World Bank. A few needed to finance early response. private sector insurance companies that have pioneered this process in Kenya are establishing themselves in Initial steps have already been taken by government to Somalia and so can already be approached for initial mainstream disaster risk reduction and financing thereof information/ knowledge exchange. Opportunities that within the National Development Planning process. exist in Somalia like the Diaspora sector can be looped This effort needs to be stepped up and supported both into supporting a livestock insurance scheme that is key technically and financially to ensure that drought and to the survival of the people of Somalia. other disaster risks are detected, assessed, monitored and mitigated against within the various sectoral development planning processes. Early Warning, Preparedness and response: A. Met Agency - Setting up a Network of Contingent loans have been used by Multilateral Weather Stations Development Banks such as International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), and the Inter- Drought early detection and early action can go a long American Development Bank (IDB), to give countries way in mitigating against most of the devastating effects access to liquidity immediately following exogenous at peak times. An effective early warning system that shocks such as natural disasters. This instrument provides consists of a Monitoring and Forecasting mechanism; a source of immediate liquidity, which can be used for Synthesis/ Analysis of data used to “trigger” set response budget support and/ or to finance early responses. actions within a drought plan; Efficient dissemination/ It has a “soft” trigger, as opposed to “parametric” communication (media (social), extension, education, triggers, and funds become available for disbursement etc.) and Drought risk planning. after the declaration of a state of emergency due to a natural disaster and can be accessed within days. A starting point to achieving this is to have a coordinating Contingent grants can be structured in similar ways, national drought monitoring and forecasting system that and can sit alongside contingent loans (for example as is currently non-existent in Somalia. Somalia urgently a way to have pre-planned financing for humanitarian requires a home-based Meteorology department that response complement pre-planned financing for a can relay interactive climate (drought) information development response). products and services based on which early warning Cross-cutting Sectors | 173 and early actions including drought risk planning can be Preparedness for drought during the • undertaken. There are some local leading universities normal period. which can house and be co-opted into managing a Mitigation against potential negative effects • network of weather stations that can supply a central during the alert/ alarm phase, Met Department with day to day weather information. These capacities need to be explored and developed. • Relief provision in emergency phase and; Meanwhile, initial efforts should focus on strengthening • Recovery and reconstruction. linkages between national institutions and the Horn of Africa Regional Climate Monitoring and EW bodies for C. Drought Coordination and Planning information sharing. Establishment of a drought management authority, a B. Drought Management Strategy - the Drought Cycle specialized coordinating body possibly under MoHADM Management Approach with the sole mandate to exercise overall coordination over all matters relating to drought risk management Droughts occur regularly and should not be seen as one- and to establish mechanisms, either on its own or with off occurrences – rather they should be planned for in stakeholders, that will greatly diminish the impacts order to reduce negative effects. Drought management of drought in Somalia as is the case in some of the means all concerted efforts by the local communities, neighboring countries is an option worth considering government, donors, NGOs and other actors to prepare and supporting. This will ensure undivided attention to for, respond to and help recover from drought. Drought addressing the challenges and needs at every phase of Cycle Management (DCM) generally entails ways of the drought cycle as discussed above. reducing vulnerability (and increasing resilience) of populations to drought through proper planning along D. Other Hazards – Preparedness and Response the drought cycle. The aim is also to use funds more There is need to set up and equip a national but also effectively. Making existing systems more resilient regional Emergency Coordination and communication during the normal and alert stages means that less centres/rooms for purposes of coordination in response money should have to be spent during the emergency to other hazards that from time to time affect Somalia. phase. Oxfam for example found that in drought-prone National and Regional Emergency Response Teams ASAL areas, development work is increasingly disrupted need to be set up and trained to coordinate response and/or undermined by the shift to emergency response. at these levels. As a long term measure, regional This resonates very well with the situation in Somalia. emergency ware houses should be set up alongside Adoption and/ or strengthening this approach in each of these coordination centres to house contingency Somalia will go a long way in systematically mitigating or stock to lessen the burden of transporting such stock addressing the effects of drought as it evolves. Capacity during emergencies. building around the four main stages of the drought cycle is recommended to ensure a holistic approach to drought management. These are: 174 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 50: Summary Needs for Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) DRM Policy and legislation Harmonization of existing institutional, 425,000 legislative and policy frameworks – including finalization of the current DRM Policy Harmonization of Existing Policies National X X 200,000 and Institutions Finalization of draft National National X X 125,000 DRM Policy Enactment of DRM Laws National X 100,000 Capacity building of National DRM institutions 1,575,000 DRM Preparedness, National X X 950,000 Contingency Planning and Risk Financing (Fund) Personnel and Training at National X X X 275,000 National and Subnational Level and Mainstreaming of DRM in Development Sectors Capacity Building of National National X X X 350,000 DRM Institutions - Equipment and Facilities Early warning and information management system (Met services, Information channeling) 2,125,000 Basic National Met Services National X X 1,475,000 Station Connected to Regional Met Agencies Emergency Communication National X X 450,000 and Control Rooms EW Information Management National X X X 200,000 and Channeling Drought Management system 875,000 Drought Cycle National X 175,000 Management Training Drought Coordination National X X 150,000 Mechanism Drought Vulnerability Assessment National X X 250,000 and Risk Reduction Planning Livestock Risk Insurance Pilot National X X X 300,000 Capacity Development Total Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience Needs 5,000,000 Cross-cutting Sectors | 175 © UNDP 177 Somalia