INTEGRATED SAFEGUARDS DATA SHEET APPRAISAL STAGE Report No.: ISDSA13389 0 Date ISDS Prepared/Updated: 17-Sep-2015 o I. BASIC INFORMATION 1. Basic Project Data Country: Philippines Project ID: P152525 Project Name: Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (P152525) Task Team Matthew Stephens Leader(s): Estimated Estimated 28-Sep-2015 Appraisal Date: Board Date: Managing Unit: GSU02 Lending Investment Project Financing Instrument: Sector(s): Law and justice (15%), Other social services (85%) Theme(s): Conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction (85%), Managing for development results (15%) Is this project processed under OP 8.50 (Emergency Recovery) or OP No 8.00 (Rapid Response to Crises and Emergencies)? Financing (In USD Million) Total Project Cost: 0.54 Total Bank Financing: 0.00 Financing Gap: 0.00 Financing Source Amount Borrower 0.00 Korea Trust Fund to Support Transitions 0.54 Total 0.54 Environmental C - Not Required Category: 2. Project Development Objective(s) The Project Development Objective is "To support the Republic of the Philippines and other development partners to establish a monitoring system for violent conflicts to inform plans, policies and programs in the Bangsamoro." As the PDO suggests, the main objective of the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System is to enhance demand-driven policy dialogue, using BCMS data as a tool and platform, on issues related to conflict and development in the proposed Bangsamoro territory. Through this system, the Bank seeks to make available data and analysis that can be used by government and non-government partners to inform more conflict-sensitive plans and policies to reduce violent conflict in the Bangsamoro. This will be achieved through regular and rigorous data collection, analysis and Page 1 of 8 dissemination. The results of the BCMS will be used to inform policy-makers, non-government organizations and development partners on conflict trends and patterns, primarily for the purpose of development planning. O ) The secondary objective is to strengthen the capacity of local partner institutions to collect, analyze and use data. This is intended to sustain the project and to promote concrete actions at the local level to respond to conflict analysis. This will be achieved by working with local academic institutions for data collection and analysis and to promote coordinated responses to the findings of the system. This objective will also be promoted by seeking to generate a shared understanding among key stakeholders of violent conflict trends, as well as an appreciation of the localized and nuanced nature of conflict both temporally and spatially. It is intended that this will, in turn, inform better targeted interventions in specific locations to help prevent and manage violent conflict. By tracking trends, the dataset should also provide information on the impact of various conflict mitigation measures implemented by government, donors and other institutions. It will also provide policy-makers with nuanced and regular data on which to measure the immediate impact of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro and the anticipated transition to the new Bangsamoro political entity on security conditions on the ground. 3. Project Description The Philippines is affected by various forms of conflict, including insurgency involving Muslim armed groups; a long-standing communist insurgency; communal conflicts over political positions and resources; and pseudo-ideological criminal banditry. There is a very strong nexus between conflict and poverty in the Philippines. The top ten poorest provinces are all either conflict-affected or conflict-prone. The conflict-affected Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) suffers from poverty rates twice the national average. The government is making strong efforts on both the political track to negotiate peace agreements and on the socio-economic track to address some of the economic-related factors that underpin violence. Most prominently, in March 2014, the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB), bringing an end to seventeen years of negotiations and shifting the long-standing GPH-MILF peace process into the implementation phase. The main feature of the CAB is an agreement to establish a new autonomous political entity - to be known as the Bangsamoro - to replace the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Solid progress has been made by the parties since the CAB was signed. A joint GPH-MILF Bangsamoro Transition Commission has submitted a draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to the Philippine Congress to establish the Bangsamoro entity. Once passed by Congress, the law will be subject to ratification in a plebiscite in the existing ARMM provinces and cities and in potential expansion areas. Once the plebiscite is completed, ARMM will be abolished, to be replaced by an interim government, the Bangsamoro Transition Authority, ahead of the May 2016 elections to form the first elected Bangsamoro Government. Despite all these positive developments, the signing of the CAB and the formation of the Bangsamoro will not automatically signal the cessation of armed hostilities in the region. Other forms of armed conflict outside the prevailing state-minority contestation (i.e., GPH vs. MILF), in particular clan wars (rido), violent crime, conflict related to extra-judicial issues and conflict over so- called "shadow economies" have become the most prevalent form of violence. Moreover, post-peace agreement scenarios often see spoilers (who benefit from the conflict status quo) attempting to Page 2 of 8 undermine the peace process by engaging in violence. Finally, the continued proliferation of weapons in conflict areas of Mindanao suggests that stability and security will remain a medium-long term aspiration. O At the same time, global experience, as articulated in the 2011 World Development Report (WDR) on Conflict, Security and Development, demonstrates that in post-conflict transitions, a post-peace agreement decline in vertical conflict is often replaced by an increase in horizontal violence, organized crime and banditry. A major indicator of a successful peace-building and conflict prevention intervention is the reduction in the incidence of armed conflict. The WDR 2011 notes, however, that in very few cases does solid, comprehensive and real-time data exist on conflict incidence in post-peace agreement scenarios. To fill this gap, in 2013 the World Bank conceived and commissioned the Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS). The BCMS involves the collection of data on incidents of violent and non-violent conflict as well as certain crimes from media and non-media sources, and the coding of the incidents using a purpose-built template and database. The conflict monitoring system will accompany, and feed into, a violent conflict intensity index. The system tracks and analyses conflict incidence, typology, trends, causes and impacts to inform policy-makers and development practitioners' decisions on development policy and programs and conflict management strategies. The BCMS also seeks to help track the impacts of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro and the normalization process on security conditions on the ground. The Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) was launched in August 2013 under contract to International Alert. In the period since the system was launched, five important milestones have been reached: (a) a reliable data base system is in place; (b) partnerships with academic institutions and validation teams have been established; (c) data has been gathered from 2011 up to early 2015; (d) a general report and analysis of conflict trends has been presented, submitted, and published to inform development policy making and peace building; and (e) an interactive website featuring easily downloadable and analyzable data has been launched to significant national and international interest. With the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) and with the a Bangsamoro Basic Law currently being deliberated by Congress, the need to monitor its effects on violent conflict is increasing. This activity will represent a continuation of activities supported so far, while deepening policy dialogue and outreach and strengthening capacity-building for local institutions. The program will be delivered through three components: 1. Data collection and analysis: this component will cover the enhancement and expansion of the conflict database and of user access to the conflict data and system. This will involve gathering, coding and analysis of violence incidents from the Philippine National Police (PNP) blotter and select media (potential other non-media) reports in the ARMM and neighboring provinces, from 2015 to April 2016. It will also include enhancement of the existing web-based platform (www. bcms-philippines.info); development of protocols on data access, data sharing and data security; and production of quarterly datasheets and analytic/thematic briefings/reports. 2. Capacity building. At the local level, the three Mindanao-based partner universities will be trained Page 3 of 8 on data analysis and formulation of policy papers on peace and development issues, using BCMS as a tool. Multi-Stakeholder Validation Groups (MSVGs) established in three locations in Mindanao and comprising local government officials, CSOs, academia and security sector actors will have an expanded role beyond data capture and validation to a role that pro-actively shape local policies O U through dialogue. At the regional and national level, support will be extended to clients in and outside government (e.g., training, seminars and learning exchange) to better use the system. 3. Policy dialogue. Multiple approaches and activities will be pursued to ensure the BCMS informs policies and plans of relevant clients. Policy communities will be established for a deeper understanding of under-reported and understudied conflict issues. At the local level, Multi- Stakeholder Validation Groups will undertake partnership activities with local development councils to formulate local development plans that are conflict sensitive. At the regional level, support will be extended to ARMM regional agency-level strategic policy groups, incumbent and transition regional planning and development offices and other transition agencies, through responsive meetings and technical exchange to enhance coordinated tracking of violent conflict in the region using the tools developed and applied in the BCMS. Outreach will also promote use of the findings of the project to frame development strategies and instruments. At the national level, regular dialogue will be undertaken with concerned national agencies, civil society, busine ss sector and development partners to discuss policy and operational implications of the conflict data, based on demand. 4. Project location and salient physical characteristics relevant to the safeguard analysis (if known) The geographic scope of this undertaking will include the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and parts of the provinces of North Cotabato and Lanao del Norte. This scope approximates the proposed Bangsamoro territory in the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law. In 2012 the region posted the highest poverty incidence among families across all regions in the country. As of the first semester of 2012, poverty incidence was 46.9%. Among the five ARMM provinces, Lanao del Sur had the highest poverty incidence of 68.9%, followed by Maguindanao at 57.8%. Three of the five ARMM provinces had the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) in the whole country in 2009. Due to its protracted nature, the conflict in the Bangsamoro area has mutated in various forms. Vertical conflict (state versus rebel groups) is primarily between the government and the MILF, but other armed groups such as the remnants of the Moro National Liberation Front, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, and elements of the Abu Sayyaf Group pose challenges to state authority. Horizontal conflicts abound such as political elites competing for key electoral positions in the government or control over scarce resource in the area, inter-ethnic competition, or inter-communal conflict. Many of these horizontal conflicts are lumped together under the phenomenon of "rido" (clan wars). International Alert and WB (2014) noted that the incidence of horizontal conflict outnumbers vertical conflict, particularly after the signing of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro in October 2012. The ARMM provinces include a number of indigenous peoples tribes, primarily living in parts of Maguindanao province. 5. Environmental and Social Safeguards Specialists Roberto B. Tordecilla (GSU02) Page 4 of 8 6. Safeguard Policies Triggered? Explanation (Optional) Environmental No Assessment OP/BP 4.01 Natural Habitats OP/BP No 4.04 O Forests OP/BP 4.36 No Pest Management OP 4.09 No Physical Cultural No Resources OP/BP 4.11 Indigenous Peoples OP/ Yes While there is IP presence in the proposed Bangsamoro BP 4.10 region/territory, BCMS activities (data gathering and analysis on violent conflicts) are not expected to directly impact the IPs. The Project will, however, ensure that in the event some data gathering activities needs to be generated from IP areas and relevant information needs to be disseminated in IP areas, it will be done in a manner consistent with the principles enshrined under OP 4.10. In addition, the program will ensure the principles and objectives of the Policy will be integrated into each stage of the Grant's activities. Involuntary Resettlement No OP/BP 4.12 Safety of Dams OP/BP No 4.37 Projects on International No Waterways OP/BP 7.50 Projects in Disputed No Areas OP/BP 7.60 II. Key Safeguard Policy Issues and Their Management A. Summary of Key Safeguard Issues 1. Describe any safeguard issues and impacts associated with the proposed project. Identify and describe any potential large scale, significant and/or irreversible impacts: No significant safeguards issues and impacts are anticipated in this project. However, a number of Indigenous Peoples are present in the Bangsamoro territory, both Muslim and non-Muslim. As the Grant aims to inform policy dialogue and preparation of development plans, policies and programs in the Bangsamoro territory, the Grant will potentially have implications for Indigenous Peoples. Thus, OP4. 10 will be triggered. 2. Describe any potential indirect and/or long term impacts due to anticipated future activities in the project area: Given it is unclear what precise programs, policies or plans the BCMS data might or might not be able to influence, it is difficult to anticipate possible impacts in the project area of the system. Page 5 of 8 However, the intention of the system is to inform more conflict-sensitive allocation of development resources and to increase awareness of the potential impacts (positive and negative) of implementing development programs in areas affected by violent conflict. Thus, to that extent it is expected that impacts of the project will be positive towards IPs and other vulnerable groups. O 3. Describe any project alternatives (if relevant) considered to help avoid or minimize adverse impacts. O Not applicable. 4. Describe measures taken by the borrower to address safeguard policy issues. Provide an assessment of borrower capacity to plan and implement the measures described. International Alert (Alert) is a 26-year old independent peace building organization based in the UK. It works with people who are directly affected by violent conflict to improve their prospects of peace. It seeks to influence the policies and ways of working ofgovernments, international organizations like the UN and multinational companies, to reduce conflict risk and increase the prospects of peace. Its programs are designed to work towards fulfilling its three-part mission goal: 1) To work together with people who live in areas affected or threatened by armed conflict, to make a positive difference for peace; 2) To improve both the substance and implementation of international policies that affect peace building and the prospects for peace; 3) To strengthen the peace building sector. Alert is one of the world's leading peace-building NGOs, with 200 staff based in its headquarters in London and field offices in Africa, South & South East Asia, the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and Latin America. Alert has been working on Philippine conflict issues since 1991. It provides technical support and accompaniment to the third-party facilitator (Royal Norwegian Government) in the Government of the Philippines-National Democratic Front of the Philippines peace process. It has worked on issues of vertical and horizontal conflict in Mindanao since 2009. It is focused on addressing social exclusion and community-level conflict, while supporting the Government of the Philippines-Moro Islamic Liberation Front (GPH-MILF) peace process. Alert's expertise on the economic dimensions of conflict, in particular its research on the links between Mindanao's shadow economy and violent conflict, has been inputted in the GPH-MILF negotiations on wealth sharing and normalization. Its knowledge of the local context and local conflict actors, in particular its political mapping of key political actors and conflict trends and dynamics, helped to inform the negotiations that led to the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB). This project will be under the direct oversight of Dr. Francisco Lara, Philippines Country Director, and Ms. Nikki de la Rosa, Deputy Country Manager and Head of Mindanao Operations. Dr. Lara has an MSc in Development Studies and a PhD in International Development from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and over three decades of professional experience working with local and international NGOs, as well as with the Philippine government, academe and financial sector. Ms. Dela Rosa has an MSc. in Development Studies from the London School of Economics and Political Science and over a decade of professional experience in politico- economic research and program management, having worked with international and local NGOs, and the academe (University of the Philippines). The nature of Alert's work involves working with people and organizations in conflict and in high- risk contexts. Its implementation is guided by a Code of Conduct on an ethical framework for conflict transformation work. The Code consists of guiding principles for the organization and the development of policies on human rights, impartiality and working in partnerships and is based on the lessons learned and experience acquired in the course of its work. Alert implements its policies Page 6 of 8 and procedures in parallel with that of its funders namely, the EU, Australian Government, the Royal Norwegian Government, and the World Bank. For example, implementation of its Australian Government-funded project includes measures for cross-cutting issues on Do no Harm, Disability-Inclusiveness, Environmental Assessment, Risk Assessment, and Child Protection. o For this grant, the borrower will take the following measures to address safeguards policy issues, particularly with respect to IPs: i) where relevant, analytical and thematic reports based on the BCMS data will include consideration of IP issues; ii) analysis of potential benefits, impacts and risks of any proposed development plans, policies and programs on IPs; and iii) consultations with IP organizations and representatives to inform the analysis and any recommendations for development plans, policies and programs. This will include inviting representatives of IP groups to be part of the Multi-stakeholder Validation Groups established in Zamboanga, General Santos and Iligan, which is the primary outlet for policy dialogue under this program. 5. Identify the key stakeholders and describe the mechanisms for consultation and disclosure on safeguard policies, with an emphasis on potentially affected people. The key stakeholders for the project will be the following: 1. Government at the national, regional and local levels, particularly the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process, the ARMM Regional Government and the proposed Bangsamoro Transition Authority and selected local government units. Security agencies will also be major stakeholders, particularly the Philippine National Police, which provides much of the data for the system. 2. Moro Islamic Liberation Front, including its development arm, the Bangsamoro Development Agency. 3. Joint bodies established by the government and the MILF, including the Joint Normalization Committee and the Joint Coordination Committee for the Cessation of Hostilities. 4. Universities and think tanks, who will use the data for analysis. 5. CSOs, who will use the data for public dialogue on security and for targeting of development programs 6. The international donor community, who will use the data and analysis for more conflict- sensitive development planning and programming. B. Disclosure Requirements Indigenous Peoples Development Plan/Framework Date of receipt by the Bank Date of submission to InfoShop Page 7 of 8 "In country" Disclosure Comments: O If the project triggers the Pest Management and/or Physical Cultural Resources policies, the respective issues are to be addressed and disclosed as part of the Environmental Assessment/ Audit/or EMP. If in-country disclosure of any of the above documents is not expected, please explain why: C. Compliance Monitoring Indicators at the Corporate Level OP/BP 4.10 - Indigenous Peoples Has a separate Indigenous Peoples Plan/Planning Framework Yes [ ] No [ ] NA [ X] (as appropriate) been prepared in consultation with affected Indigenous Peoples? The World Bank Policy on Disclosure of Information Have relevant safeguard policies documents been sent to the Yes [ ] No [ ] NA [ X] World Bank's Infoshop? Have relevant documents been disclosed in-country in a public Yes [ ] No [ ] NA [ X] place in a form and language that are understandable and accessible to project-affected groups and local NGOs? All Safeguard Policies Have satisfactory calendar, budget and clear institutional Yes [ ] No [ ] NA [ X] responsibilities been prepared for the implementation of measures related to safeguard policies? Have costs related to safeguard policy measures been included Yes [ ] No [ ] NA X in the project cost? Does the Monitoring and Evaluation system of the project Yes[ ] No[ ] NA[X] include the monitoring of safeguard impacts and measures related to safeguard policies? Have satisfactory implementation arrangements been agreed Yes [ No[ NA[X] with the borrower and the same been adequately reflected in the project legal documents? III. APPROVALS Task Team Leader(s): Name: Matthew Stephens Approved By Safeguards Advisor: Name: Peter Leonard (SA) Date: 15-Jun-2015 Practice Manager/ Name: Jan Weetjens (PMGR) Date: 15-Jun-2015 Manager: Page 8 of 8