The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) AFRICA EAST | Ethiopia | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 13 | ARCHIVED on 24-Jun-2021 | ISR47355 | Implementing Agencies: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Agriculture-ET Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 30-Sep-2014 Effectiveness Date: 03-Feb-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 20-Nov-2017 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2020 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Program Development Objective is: Increased access to safety net and disaster risk management systems, complementarylivelihoods services and nutrition support for food insecure households in rural Ethiopia. This will be achieved through 1)support for building core instruments and tools of social protection and DRM systems, 2) delivery of safety net and enhanced accessto livelihoods services for vulnerable rural households, and 3) improved program management and institutional coordination. Theprojectwill also contribute to the higher level objectives of (i) improved household food security, livelihoods and nutrition, and(ii) enhanced household and community resilience to shocks. This is consistent with the higher level objectives of the ongoing APLseries supporting the PSNP. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The Project Development Objective is: increase access to effective safety net and disaster risk management systems, and complementary livelihood and nutrition services for food-insecure households in the Recipient s rural areas. Components Table Name Social Protection and Disaster Risk Management Systems:(Cost $40.00 M) Productive safety nets and links to livelihoods services:(Cost $530.00 M) Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management Support:(Cost $30.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO €Satisfactory €Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) €Satisfactory €Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating €Substantial €Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Implementation Status and Key Decisions (Public Disclosure) 6/24/2021 Page 1 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) The implementation of the Productive Safety Net Project 4 during the extension period focused primarily on: a) provision of food assistance to PSNP and beneficiaries in Tigray region affected by the on-going conflict; b) finalizing outstanding procurement activities and pending contracts. Under the provision transfer to people affected by the conflict, the Project was able to provide 19,322 MT of food to 1.1 million people. Even though, the project closing date w extended for six months until June 30, 2021 and some progress was made in grain procurement (supply of 75K of wheat was completed and 80K is expec be fully delivered before the current closing date), other high value contracts (beneficiary household registry, end line impact evaluations, purchase of 30K could not be completed during the first extension period. Government has officially requested the Bank for a second extension of the closing date of the project and the Bank Team is considering to further extend closing date until December 31, 2021. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- €High €High Macroeconomic -- €Moderate €Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- €Moderate €Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- €Moderate €Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and -- €Moderate €Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary -- €Substantial €Substantial Environment and Social -- €Substantial €Substantial Stakeholders -- €Substantial €Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall -- €Substantial €Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes 6/24/2021 Page 2 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Increased access to SN & DRM systems, complimentary LH services & nutrition for f/insecure HH IN01011425 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 7,200,000.00 7,997,218.00 7,997,218.00 8,300,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 IN01011471 €Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.00 52.00 52.00 50.00 IN01011472 ►Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) (Number, Corporate) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 7,200,000.00 7,997,218.00 7,997,218.00 8,300,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 IN01011473 €Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Other cash transfers programs (number) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 7,200,000.00 7,997,218.00 7,997,218.00 8,300,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 IN01011474 €Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Female (number) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3,600,000.00 4,131,994.00 4,131,994.00 4,150,000.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 IN01011475 ►Average number of months of household food insecurity (Months, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.20 1.83 1.83 2.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 29-Mar-2019 29-Mar-2019 30-Jun-2021 The indicator value is calculated based on a weighted average (75% Highlands/25% Lowlands). The 2018 PSNP Mid Comments: 2.0 months of food gap in the Highlands national and 1.3 months of food gap in the Lowlands. 6/24/2021 Page 3 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) The endline to assess this indicator was scheduled to take place between March-May 2020, however due to the COV data collection is tentatively scheduled for March 2021. IN01011476 ►% increase in average value of household assets (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 13.38 13.38 30.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 30-Jun-2021 This is a weighted average (75% Highlands/ 25% Lowlands). Actual value for Highlands and Lowlands are as follows: Highlands - total increase in HH assets = 15.5% [ Consumer Durables =10.7%; Productive assets = 7.0%; Livestock Assets = 16.9%] Lowlands: Total increase in HH assets = 7% [Consumer Durables = -3.5%; Productive Assets= -16.2%; Comments: Livestock Holdings =8.4%]. The endline to assess this indicator was scheduled to take place between March-May 2020, however due to the COVID-19 crisis, the endline data collection is tentatively scheduled for March 2021 IN01011477 ►% of clients who receive community-based nutrition counseling services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 84.00 84.00 80.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Apr-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Source: 2018 Joint PWLH Review. The value of this indicator is based on a sample of 28 woredas representing 8 percent of the total PSNP woredas. The indicator measures access of client households to community-based nutrition (CBN) services and Comments: behavioral change communication (BCC). The BCC implementation is progressing slow: currently it is implemented in 80 woredas of the 349 woredas, due to financing constraints. The updated indicator in the 2019 Joint PWLH Review is currently in the process of being finalized and validated by the federal government. No change since the previous report IN01011478 ►Improved early warning triggers and response mechanisms agreed and functional (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 An assessment on early warning triggers has been finalized which will help to identify improved early Comments: warning triggers. But it will take time until the client operationalizes it IN01011479 ►% of PSNP woredas where MIS and single registry is operational (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 6/24/2021 Page 4 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 MIS development is progressing well and as of January 2020, the MIS phase 1 was planned to be finalized in June 2020 rolled-out in a phased approach, based on the completion of the PSNP BHH Registry. However due to the recent COVID Crisis, plans to roll out the MIS within the planned timeframe is being reassessed. Comments: The PSNP BHH Registry- 7 firms were contracted in January 2020 to carry out the primary data collection activity for 12 of the 14 clusters. Communication on the registry data collection started cascading from regions to woredas in January 2020 and trainings on the survey software and survey instruments tookplace in February 2020. Unfortunately due to the COVID-19 crisis, data collection activities have been put on hold until further notice. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Social Protection and Disaster Risk Management Systems IN01011480 ►Time taken from issuing a drought warning to identifying and agreeing number of people in need (Days, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 180.00 100.00 100.00 60.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 This is estimated to be approximately 110 days for food transfers, and 90 days for cash. Currently there is no formal As of December 2019, there was no updated data available by the counterpart for this indicator. Comments: IN01011483 ►% of kebeles where poverty index is used to complement community targeting (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Currently poverty indexes are not being used to complement community targeting. A proxy means test is currently be entire program, and will be integrated as part of the MIS once it is rolled out, to verify the percentage of beneficiaries Comments: IN01011486 ►% of clients receiving regular payments within the agreed time frame (20 days for cash and 30 days for food) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 60.00 59.50 59.50 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Comments: January-February 2020. 6/24/2021 Page 5 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Cash: 71% Food: 81% For the Q1 of EFY 2012: Cash: 35% Food: No food transfer Key challenges for delays in cash payments in the first quarter were due to: 1. Reshuffling of staff specially Afar and Somali 2. Instability problem in certain parts of the country 3. Limited bank liquidity and cash holding capacity in lowlands 4. Low level of commitment between regions and weredas to implement the agreed actions developed by the FSCD 5. Poor coordination between BoLSA and regional Food security in Afar resulted in a delay of cash transfer to weredas. IN01011488 ►% of clients reporting that they can provide adequate meals for their family for 12 months a year (male/female) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 44.41 44.41 50.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 30-Jun-2021 This is a weighted average based on the data from the Midline evaluation (75% Highlands/25% Lowlands). 39.5% of PSNP Household reported 12 months of food security in the highlands; 59.1% of PSNP Comments: Households in the Lowlands; The endline to assess this indicator was scheduled to take place between March-May 2020, however due to the COVID-19 crisis, the endline data collection has been suspended until further notice. IN01011490 ►% of transfers received that has a value of at least 15 kgs of cereals and 4 kgs of pulses or its cash equivalent (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Data source: Dec. 2019 Consumer Price Index data from CSA In EFY 2012 the wage rate was increased by 16% on average Data source: June 2020 Consumer Price Index data from CSA In EFY 2012 the wage rate was increased by 16% on average Based on analysis of CPI data from CSA, despite the wage rate adjustments, none of the transfers can Comments: purchase a full 15kg of cereals with the existing wage rate. The existing wage can purchase in average about 9.4 kg of cereals. IN01011492 ►% of clients receiving contingency resources within 60 days of identification of need (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 85.00 85.00 75.00 6/24/2021 Page 6 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Date 01-Jul-2015 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 30-Jun-2021 There is no update after December 2019 Comments: Productive safety nets and links to livelihoods services IN01011481 ►% of clients that feel PW sub-projects reflect their needs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.00 51.61 51.61 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Source: IFPRI 2018 Midline Evaluation Proxy Indicator Used: % clients reporting the building of the PW infrastructure benefited them The endline to assess this indicator was scheduled to take place between March-May 2020, however due Comments: to the COVID-19 crisis, the endline data collection has been suspended until further notice. The endline data collection has been suspended until March 2021 IN01011484 ►% of PW sub-projects selected and implemented following GOE's Community-based Participatory Watershed Management Guidelines or Rangeland Management Guidelines (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.00 84.50 84.50 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Source: FSCD Report Comments: IN01011487 ►% of client households reporting that their livelihoods have benefitted from public work created assets (male/female) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 61.65 61.65 50.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 30-Jun-2021 Source: IFPRI PSNP 4 Midline Survey 2018 Proxy Indicator used: % clients reporting the PW project was productive for the community Comments: The endline to assess this indicator was scheduled to take place between March-May 2020, however due to the COVID-19 crisis, the endline data collection has been suspended until March 2021 IN01011489 ►% of PSNP HHs reporting new income source as a result of program support (male/female) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.40 1.40 30.00 Date 31-May-2016 30-Nov-2020 30-Nov-2020 30-Jun-2021 Comments: There is currently no information on this indicator. 6/24/2021 Page 7 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) IN01011491 ►% of HHs that save regularly (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 67.50 67.50 50.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Source: EFY 2012 Q2 Progress Report. Savings declined from EFY 2011 Q2 due to the following: (i) Income irregularity between July-September which resulted in clients dropping out of the savings schemes; (ii) Limited loan disbursement from MFI as a result of the low level of compulsary savings mobilization, which implied that a smaller number of livelihood clients saved in the first quarter compared to the end of the previous fiscal year (June EFY Comments: 2011). . IN01011493 ►% of clients with business plans developed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 72.66 72.66 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Source: EFY 2012 FSCD 2nd Quarter Report Comments: IN01011494 ►% of client HHs receiving livelihoods transfers (cumulative) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11.61 11.61 27.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 55,692 client households of an estimated 1,135,065 households. Comments: Budget for livelihoods transfer has yet to be disbursed to clients for EFY 2012.. IN01011495 ►% of clients receiving wage employment related skills training (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 16.41 16.41 30.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Comments: Source: EFY 2012 Q2 Report Note that between July 2018-June 2019 (EFY 2011), cumulative employment skills training was 165,984; Between July-Dec 2019 (EFY 2012) = this increased by 10, 719 clients to a cumulative total of 176,703 clients. 6/24/2021 Page 8 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Institutional Capacity Building and Project Management Support IN01011482 ►% of PSNP woredas meeting minimum PSNP staffing standards (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 80.00 14.29 14.29 90.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-May-2021 30-Jun-2021 Source: National Spot Checks The decline in this indicator is due to a change in the data source used. Previously this indicator was being tracked to different sources that could not be updated regularly. As of December 2019, National Spot Checks have been introduced which aims to measure this indicator based on a sample of woredas. Comments: This indicator is based on a sample of 26 woredas across all 8 regions. It was assessed based on the PIM requirements of 1 cashier & 1 accountant per 25,000 clients + 1 capacity development officer at Woreda level; IN01011485 ►% of clients that report they are aware of program objectives and entitlements (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 98.94 98.94 70.00 Date 01-Jul-2015 30-Nov-2020 30-Nov-2019 30-Jun-2021 Source: IFPRI 2018 Midline Note that this indicator is calculated based on the following questions, and therefore does not reflect client knowledge of program objectives and entitlements. Q1. Have you heard about the Productive Safety Net Programme 4 (PSNP)? Q2. We would like to be sure of your answer. The PSNP is the Government of Ethiopia’s rural safety net Comments: for food insecure households. It provides cash and/or food transfers to these households. Even if you do not know it by name, are you aware of such a programme? The endline to assess this indicator was scheduled to take place between March-May 2020, however due to the COVID-19 crisis, the endline data collection has been until March 2021 Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P146883 IDA-55400 Effective USD 600.00 600.00 0.00 546.01 0.00 100% P146883 IDA-58770 Effective USD 100.00 100.00 0.00 96.27 0.00 100% 6/24/2021 Page 9 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) P146883 IDA-60410 Effective USD 108.10 108.10 0.00 110.90 0.00 100% P146883 TF-A1426 Closed USD 94.86 94.86 0.00 94.86 0.00 100% P146883 TF-A3267 Effective USD 182.39 182.39 0.00 175.16 7.22 96% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P146883 IDA-55400 Effective 30-Sep-2014 31-Oct-2014 03-Feb-2015 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2021 P146883 IDA-58770 Effective 30-Jun-2016 01-Jul-2016 26-Jul-2016 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2021 P146883 IDA-60410 Effective 02-May-2017 09-May-2017 06-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2021 P146883 TF-A1426 Closed 30-Sep-2014 04-Dec-2015 04-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 P146883 TF-A3267 Effective 30-Sep-2014 09-Dec-2016 09-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2020 30-Jun-2021 Cumulative Disbursements PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC 6/24/2021 Page 10 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report ET Productive Safety Nets Project 4 (PSNP 4) (P146883) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 11-Dec-2020 Related Project(s) P158770-PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NET PROJECT (PSNP 4) ADDITIONAL FINANCING ,P163350-Productive Safety Net 4 Project Additional Financing 6/24/2021 Page 11 of 11