U I DIATER WRLDK BANKGFFIRRE Global Eaatility for Disaster eductio 0 A a anRc ve r _Iq ~~~0 ,~D~ R e ©2017 The World Bank The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because Washington, D.C. 20433, USA The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, February 2017 this work maybe reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as ftill attribution to this Financial support for this program is provided by the work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including Government of Japan through the Japan-World Bank subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries, her, The World Bank, 181811 Street NW, Washington, managed by the World Bank's DRM Hub in Tokyo: ww DC 20433, USA; fx: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@ worTdhankeorgW/drmhubtokyon worldbank.org. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This risk profile were prepared by a team comprising Federica Ranghieri, Ditte Fallesen, Brenden Jongman, Simone Balog, Sayed Sharifuellah Mashahid, Guillermo Siercke and Alanna Simpson. The team would like to thank the Government of Afghanistan for their close collaboration, the Government of Japan for their generous support and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) for their guidance and advice. The underlying risk assessment was produced by a consortium led by Deltares and including Global Risk Forum Davos, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Omran Technical Company and ENA Finally, we are grateful for Axis Maps for creating the data isuGalizations and this well deshigne d risk profle. DISCLAIMER This document is the product of work performed by GFDRR staff, based on information provided by GFDRRs partners. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of GFDRR, including, for example, the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, the Government of Japan, cNDce or the governments they represent. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is co rrect, its accuracy and integri ty cannot be gua ranteed. Use o f any data or info rmatio from this document is at the user's own risk and under no circumstances shall GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result from reliance on the data contained in this document. The Worid Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The Government of Japan is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. 2 DISASTER RISK PROFILE A fghanistan's rugged mountain landscape and generally events turn into disasters with large humanitarian and arid climate make it prone to several natural hazards. economic consequences. Disasters also have an impact on The Hindu Kush Mountains divide the country into fragility and conflict. While natural hazards and disasters do the Central Highlands that are part of the Himalayas, the not necessarily cause conflict in and of themselves, natural Southwestern Plateau, and the country's fertile Northern disasters can exacerbate the challenges people already face Plains. The climate ranges from arid to semi-arid, with large in fragile states, create new risks and add stress to an already temperature differences between altitudes and between weakened governance system and fuel grievances warm and cold seasons. The availability of risk information is key for effective Afghanistan is highly prone to intense and recurring . nanagement of disaster and climate risk- Integrating risk natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, flash floods, information into development planning public policy and landslides, avalanches and droughts. Within low-income investments and assuring the resilience of new and existing countries Afghanistan takes second-place, only surpassed reconstruction to natural hazards and climate change is by Haiti, in terms of the number of fatalities from natural critical to secure both lives and livelihoods. disasters between 1980 and 2015. For every 1 million inhabitants 1,150 people die in Afghanistan, 50% of these With funding from the Government of Japan and the Global fatalities from geophysical and weather related events, Facilityfor Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and respectively' in close cooperation with the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Agency, the World Bank has produced a Climate change also poses a threat to Afghanistan's natural comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment at the national resources, of which the majority of Afghans depend for their level, including in-depth assessments for selected geographic livelihoods. Afghanistan faces significant impacts of climate areas. The national multi-hazard risk assessment includes change and disasters which will impact growth prospects. information on current and ffture risks from the following The most obvious is the impact of floods and droughts on perils: fluvial floods, flash floods, drought, landslides, snow agriculture productivity avalanches and seismic hazards in the country. The country's low level of socio-economic development The risk profiles, included in this document, provides a makes it extremely vulnerable to disasters, resulting summary and visualization of the national multi-hazard in frequent loss of lives, livelihoods, and public and assessment The information provides essential data and private property. Several factors have contributed to information for policy decision-making development Afghanistan's vulnerability to disasters. Decades of conflict planning and infrastructure investments to ensure a more have undermined the countrys coping mechanisms and resilient future for Afghanistan. protective capacity. This increases the likelihood that hazard 2 Internatio na Alert, Polity Brief: Compou nding Risk: Disaster, Fra- I The Munich Re NatCatSERVICE: Geo Risks Research, December gi lity and Conflict, May 2015; oDI Briefing, K. Peters and M. Budimir: 2016 When disasters and conflict collide, May 2016 The Panj River iln northern Afghanistan. Photo Credit: Brenden Jongman DISASTER RISK PROFILE I INTRODUCTION3 RISK SUMMARY Population Living in Hazard Area Flood A 1 kI5 1 AN Drought 4,500* o 10 20 30 40 65 200* - 1,500 *Thousands of peopte a1a0z0a eSarifKondoz Taoan 50 500 Shebergha Aybak oBa hlan -- 250 Meymaneh 0 0 T Mhmud- )Qa[ eh-ye mian Charikarj,E'Eraqi- abdAvanh Chaghcharan e -a Lam o May FShahrlabad BaaiBr 350* 'Y hazni.j G ardiz 150 100 arhåran 50 Tarin KOwM2 oFarah Ja 10 hcKandåhar 0 Zaranj Earthiquake Landslide PAKISTANO 500 -150 Economic Damage50 US$ Millions per Year 0 2 5 10 20 H azard Impact Rlood Earthquake Drought 6i~ 560 fatalities o n ~ Eathq~ke ~average per year FP Over 800,000 Floodpeople exposed 0US$ 280 million Drought agricuLturaL damages per year 130,000 private buildings exposed $20milo Landstide13,0prvt $80 million 10,000 kilometers of $54 milon Avalanche /* roads exposed 4 DISASTER RISK PROFILE | RISK SUMMARY RISK SUMMARY 4 F gG GDP $S9V2 bila*Popuation 32.5 million* -20Is ± ..± k s h. *~.. At a Glance Recommendations * Natural hazards, such as flooding, Droughtshave affcted 6, milion at a glance earthquakes, avalanches, landslides, and people since 2000,during four major Tomitigate risks to development droughts, are exacerbating vulnerability events (2000, 2006, 2Q08 and 2011). and strengthen resilience, and poverty in Afghanistan where the investments in Afghanistan should very poorest households experience - 3 million people are exposed to very high incorporate information on natural natural hazard shocks almost twice as or high lanqslide hazard. hazards in planning, design and frequently as the wealthiest households. * Since 1980, disasters caused by natural avalanche. Strengthening dikes upstream and hazards have affected 9 million people hads auever 20,000e fatallitin pl Due to climate change, flood and retrofitting houses would improve and caused over 20,000 fatalities in flood protection in cities; one new Afghnisan.d r ugt r s areI ielyto ncrasein h e embankment in Kabul could reduce Afghanistan.fture. * Flooding is the most frequent natural hazard historically, causing average Increased frequency of drought year. annual damages of $54 million; large flood conditions may decrease hydropower episodes can cause over $500 million in productimi with potential significant trofittinghools fo uae damages. damaes.negtiv imact n pwerproucton.reduce potential economic losses by * Earthquakes caused the most fatalities An extreme drought could cause an 60%, and reduce fatalities by 90%. historically; since 1980 more than estimated $3 billion in agicultural More effective water management 10,000 people have been killed due to losses, and lead to severe food shortages could reduce water shortages due earthquakes. 1 across the country to drought; canals and irrigation * Average yearly damages from An estimated 10,000km of roads (15% systems could improve access to earthquakes are estimated at $80 of all roads) are exposed to avalanches, water for the agricultural sector; million, including key transport routes like the diversifying livelihoods, and Salang Pass. improving the effectiveness of ragricultural practices could increase 1 0. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hayois, EM-DAT: Initernational Disaster Database, UniversitM agricultural productivity. Catholi,ue de Louvain, Brussels, Bel&irm,,,ww,emI.t. be. Retention structures, concrete galleries over roads, and early National Hazard Maps warning systems can be effective in reducing avalanche risk. Flood Earthquake Reforestation and landslide retention structures suchas nets can reduce the triggering of cdilandslides during heavy rain or earthquakes. neatvripcto pwe-routin Drought Avalanche Landslide DISASTER RISK PROFILE I RISK SUMMARY 5 FLOOD F looding is the most frequently occurring natural hazard in Afghanistan. The country is prone to river flooding T K 1NISA because of steep slopes in headwaters. Flooding in rivers mainly occurs as a result of heavy rainfall coupled with rapid snowmelt; the sources of most of the rivers lie in the mountains and are fed by snow and glaciers. Lack of vegetation and denudation of the mountain areas also contribute to the occurrence of flooding. Urban flooding is a problem in major cities, and is often caused by intense local rainfall in combination with inadequate drainage systems. Hairatan (north) and the Helmand basin (west) have high levels of flood hazard. Kabul Province is most affected, population wise: over 2,000 people on average per year The majority of expected flood damages are attributed to the commercial (40%) and residential (33%) sectors. Economic Impact (Millions US$) 800 400% Current 2050*haeSoicnmc Modeled FlodoImpist SSP2, o0 400~ SSP3 X -SSP4 -SSP5 Currnt 2150*Shared Socioeconomic Average dam age per year Pathways (see Methodology) Both GDP and population impact less than 0.1% Modeled Flood Impacts Reference Situation (2010) Ata Glance * Total number of people affected each year Once in a decade $250 million by flooding is approximately 100,000. GDP Once in a lifetime n $450 million Extreme event $650 million 9 Extreme events from river flooding could ---- --- --- ------ ------ ------ --- ------- --- --- - -- --- --- --- --- ---potentially cost over $500 m illion. Decade 450,000 people Population Lifetim 750,000 people , Number of people affected each year by Extreme 900,000 people flooding could more than double by Decade00 2% 2050 due to combined climate change and Critkal Facilities* Lifetime 2.8% socioeconomic growth. Ext reme 3.4% Poorly built flood protection infrastructure, Decade $20 million lack of early warning systems and increasing Roads ifetim $30 million settlements in flood prone areas are Extreme $40 million important drivers of flood risk Decade $150 million Flooding in May2014 affected 90,000 Private Buildings Lifetim $300 million people - displacing 20,000 - in 14 northern Exrees $400 million provinces, exceeding US$100 million in *(Healthcare, Education and Energy) damages. 6 DISASTER RISK PROFILE IFLOOD HAZARD FLOOD Recommendations T B E I K i å " Strengthening dikes and retrofitting houses would improve flood protection in cities and rural areas. * A flood retaining wall in Kabul of lm would cost approximately $180,000; the net value of investing in a flood retaining wall would be $13.5 million . " One new embankment in Kabul could - reduce flood damages by $600,000 per year. " Building a local earth embankment along the river in the Kunduz - * Flood Prone Areas agricultural area, in the Phuli Khumri area, and in Fayzabad could . significantly reduce the risk from The distribution of river flood risk flooding. across Afghanistan is determined by modeled flood hazard, the location where assets intersect with these hazards, and the vulnerability of those assets. For more detail, see the Asset Maps Methodology section. Asset Distribution Exposed Assets Asset Distribution Exposm Assets (% of total number) (% of total number) Population Distribution Critical Facilities - Healthcare 15% 15% 2- 22 ; 0 Private Buildings Critica l Faclilities - Ed u c ati on 15% 7% 6 4 2 0 - Roads Critical Facilties - Energy 10 D R60 _ _ _ 0 120 DISASTER RISK PROFILE i FLOOD HAZARD7 EARTHQUAKE Afghanistan is located in aEarthquake Risk tectonically active region of the world. Each year Afghanistan TURKMEN ISTA is struck by moderate to strong earthquakes, causing damage or fatalities. There is high earthquake hazard towards the north-eastern region of Afghanistan, particularly along the borders with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan. Earthquakes during the last 30 years have caused over 10,000 fatalities. A major earthquake event in Kabul Province is expected to cause approximately 8,500 deaths and over $500 million in damages. Kabul has the highest average estimated damage of all regions in Afghanistan, amounting to $17 million per year, due to the concentration of assets and population located in the province. Earthquakes also frequently cause large landslides in mountainous regions. Economic Impact (Millions US$) 1000 -SSP2* 500 SSP3 - SSPI4 o 0 0 -SSP5 Current 2050 *Shared Socioeconomic Below 0.1% GDP and Average damage per year Pathways (see Methodology) 0.1 fatality per 10,000 Ata Glance Modeled Earthquake Impacts 9Earthquakes cause the greatest number of Reference Situation (2010) fatalities due to natural hazards, with nearly 2.7 million deaths since 1900. Once in a decade $150 million 9 Average damages from earthquake shaking GDP Once in a lifetime $500million each year is estimated at $80 million. Extreme event - $1 billion --------------------~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ --- - --- - - -- - --5-- - - - - - - - - - - - - m illion students would be exposed in Decademn 1,000 fatalities school buildings if an earthquake occurred Population Lifetime 5,000 fatalities during school time. Extreme m 10,000 fatalities Decade 7% 9 In just the last 30 years, earthquakes have Critical Facililties* Lifetim" 50 caused over 10,000 fastalities and affected Extreme 65% over 250,000 people. Decadu $1.5 billion * In ctober 2015, an earthquake in the Hindu Roads Lifetim* $5.5 billion Kush mountains killed 11b people, injured Extrems $7 billion over 58,000 and made more than 35,000 Decade $4 billion homeless. Private Bulldinp Lifetim$ $30 billion An earthquake in March 2002 in the Hindu Extreme $35 billion Kush mountains caused at least 1,200 *(Heaithcare, Education and Energy) fatalities and affected over 100,000 people. 8 DISASTER RISK PROFILE I EARTHQUAKE HAZARD EARTHQUA '~90-~ 60 p 20 / 0 Roads Critical Facilities - Energy 10% 100% 95 80 85 4 44 DISASTER RISK PROFILE I EARTHQUAKE HAZARD 9 A fghanistan suffers from recurring droughts with varying length and severity Droughts pose a eaV1 NISA threat to livelihoods, income, and poverty reduction efforts as over 85% of the population rely on agriculture for livelihood. Severe and prolonged droughts also have serious consequences for food security. Drought risk is highest in the Helmand abut basin and lowest in the northeast. In the future, the risk of drought is expected to increase due to precipitation decreases caused by climate change in PAKISTAN most sub-basins of Afghanistan. ish Impact Affected People (Millions) - 5o 25 - Class 1* - Class 2 - Class 3 *Drought severity index: Current 2050 - Class 4 class 1 = severe drought Both GOP and population Number of people affected in case of a strong drought - Class 5 class 5 = abundant water impact less than 1% Modeled Drought Impacts Reference Situation (2010) Droughts are a frequent occurrence in Afghanistan, affecting millions of people and causing large economic damages to Agriculturalone in decad $2.5 billion agriculture, households and hydropower ALtural once in a lifetime $3 billion production. Losses Extreme event $3.5 billion On average, droughts cause $280 million in Decade' 19 million peopleeconomic damages to agriculture each year; peopleextreme events could cost over $3 billion. Population Lifetine 22 million people ExtremeL 124 million people *Due to climate change, hydropower production is expected to have zero production once every 10 years in Kajaki reservoir, and once every 20 years in Naghlu reservoir by 20 50. Droughts have affected 6. million people since 2000, during four major events (2000, 2006,2008 and 2011). 1L0 DISASTER RISK PROFILE I DROUGHT HAZARD ODROUGHT 0mU ZUE I Recommendations * More effective water management could reduce water shortages during droughts. * Canals and irrigation systerns could improve access to water for the agricultural sector. * Diversifying livelihoods, and improving the effectiveness of agricultural practices, for example by using crops and irrigation methods that waste less water, could increase agricultural productivity, reducing the reliance on water availability. Wh itibto fater hortage across Afghanistan is determined by mnodeled drought conditions, the location where assets intersect with these conditions, and the vulJnerability of the assets to dr[ought. For more detail, see the Methodology section. Asset Maps Asset Distribution Impact - Current Impact - 2050 Agricultural Value Agricultural Losses Millions of$ - -$400 $0 300 300 200 200 100 100 50 50 20 20 o a 10 016 40 40 20 20 DISASTER RISK PROFILE I DROUGiHT HAZARD 11 LANDSLD L and slide susceptibility is spread across Afghanistan's mountainous terrain that makes up more than T IIR K 1NISA 60% of the country, from the north- east to the western area. Landslides in Afghanistan are fairly common due to the mountainous terrain and unstable soil, and can be triggered by both heavy rainfall and earthquake shaking. Badakhshan, Daykundi, and Ghor have the greatest number of people exposed to landslides. Badakhshan, Takhar, and Ghor have the greatest value of assets exposed. Deforestation, land-use change and increases in heavy rainfall can intensify landslide hazard to settlements and infrastructure. Landslide mitigation options such as nets or drainage pipes are scarce in Afghanistan. Economic Exposure (Billions US$) 20 . SSPI SSP2 ~ 4o4 10 SSP3 -SSP4 4 0 SSP5 Current 2050 Currnt 050*Shared Socioeconomic Both GOP and population Total economic valuje exposed Pathways (see Methodology) exposure less than 1% Modeled Landslide Exposure * Indicates total number or value in hazard prone areaAtaG nc $2 billion - Over 3 million people are exposed to GDP i$8.5 billion landslides inAfghanistan. Podled 7adld E pore epsdt adlds nldn oeta I Over $6 billion worth of assets are Popul$2bilon*avrt mlion95,0 peopleae exposed toladiesinuigmoetn 71I1iii ,ll 2 million people 400 schools and 300 health centers. Critical Facilities 7* Badakhshan has over $800 million worth (Healthcare, Education 8.3% of assets and 280,000 people exposed to and Energy) landslides. Roads $ million * In 2014, a hillside saturated by heavy rains gave way above the village of Ab Barak in north-eastern Afghanistan, causing at least 350 and possibly more than 2,000 deaths. * Due to population growth alone, the number of people affected by landslides could m 2010 'ill 2050 double by 2050. 12 DISASTER RISK PROFILE LANDSLIDE HAZARD LANDSLD- AFG -ANISTA,9 U ZBE, IST AN Recommendations T U R K M E N 1S T A N " Landslide risk can be reduced by avoiding construction of bulldings, transport networks or service lines in high landslide hazard aras. * Local monitoring of slopes with high slow-moving landslide hazards can identify increased landslide hazard early. * Reinforcement of landslide susceptible slopes can reduce the potential for landslide occurrence. * Passive protection measures such 9 Landslide Prone Areas as boulder-gathering trenches at the foot of the hillside, metal containment nets, and boulder barriers can reduce Because the probability of landstide the impact of small landslides from occurrence is very difficult reacingassts.to estimate, this assessmient reaching assets. only provides hazard-exposure information and no average annual losses. For more details, see the Asset Maps Methodology section. Asset Distribution Exposed Assets Asset Distribution Exposed Assets (% of total number) (% of total number) Population Distribution Critical Facilities - Healthcare 16% 55% 4 20 2: 10 L 0 Private Buildings Critical1 Faclilities - Ed u c ati on 16% 38% 2 5 Roads Critical Facillties - Energy 25% 100% 120 80 560 10 40 5 L 20 0 0 DISASTER RISK PROFILE | LANDSLIDE HAZARD 13 AVALANCHE In the Hindu Kush mountain range of Afghanistan, snow avalanches affect people, settlements and infrastructure. K M L N I S TA Avalanche hazardous areas are driven in large part by topography and elevation and are therefore located in the mountainous regions of Afghanistan, spread from the north-east to the western regions. Difficulty in accessing and providing aid to remote populations is a common concern with avalanche events. Badakhshan, Kabul, and Daykundi have the greatest number of people and GDP affected by avalanches. Climate change may reduce risk from avalanches in lower lying areas due to rising temperatures. However higher altitude areas such as the Salang pass could experience more frequent avalanches in mid-winter due to increased snowfall. Economic Exposure (Billions $U5D) 20 10- - 55PI* 0 -55SP5 Current 2050 *Shared Socioeconomic Both GOP and population Total economic value exposed Pathways (see Methodology) exposure less than 1% Modeled Avalanche Exposure Indicates total number or value in hazard prone area At a Glance , 2 million people are exposed to avalanches. $4latilion GDP 11111ii n n ttiitl 11 ItIIllititn$20 billion a Over 10,000km of roads and $4 blilion of ---- --- --- ---- -- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- ---assets are exposed to avalanches. Population 2 million people a $990 million assets are exposed to ninihtinhhiiiiiiihu4 million people avalanches in Badakchshan alone. Critical Facilities , In 2015, a series of avalanches and flash (Healthcare, Education 20% floods killed over 300 people, the majority and Energy) in Panjshir Valley. Roads $1 billion a From 2000 to 2015, over 153,000 people were affected by avalanches. a Avalanche early warning systems are Private Buildings $2.5 billion being tested in the Salang Pass hut are absent elsewhere. Avalanche mitigation measures for protecting infrastructure and 2010 'mio 2050 settlements are often missing. 14 DISASTER RISK PROFILE AVALANCHE HAZARD AVALANCHE U ZBE,IS TAN Recommendations Tnusm * Retention structures such as snow supporting structures, snow drift fences, artificial avalanche release, avalanche dams, avalanche deflection dams, and avalanche galleries or snow sheds can reduce avalanches from reaching potentially exposed assets. * Buildings and structures in avalanche areas can be reinforced and specifically designed to withstand and/or deflect the impact of avalanches. 0 Aval[anche Prone Areas Becauise the probability of avalanche occurrence is very difficult to estimate, this assessment only provides hazard-exposure information. For more details, see Asset Maps the Methodology section. Asset Distribution Exposed Assets Asset Distribution Exposed Assets (% of total number) (% of total number) Population Distribution Critical Facilities - Healthcare 870% 85% 30 60 <' 20 -740 10 20 0 0 Private Buildings Critical Facilities - Education 70% 90% -30 60 20 40 10 20 - -O- 0 /<)0 -t0 Roads Critical Facilities - Energy 85% 100% 60 K60 40 '~'40 0 0 DISASTER RISK PROFILE | AVALANCHE HAZARD 15 DISASTER RISK PROFILE U ilig S Glossary of Terms For example, the seismic vulnerability AVERAGE DAMAGE PERYEAR of a building is dependent on a variety Average Damage Per Year (also Average of factors including its structural Hazard refers to the physical forces material, the quality of construction, Annal Loss,ai te estime produced by a peril such as ground and its height. prodcedby aperl sch a grundpeople) that a specific hazard is likely to shaking induced by an earthquake, ny given year. It or water inundation associated with RISK flooing,is calculated based on losses (including Disaster risk is a function of hazard, zero losses) produced by all hazard EXPOSURE exposure, and vulnerability. It is occurrences over many years. quantified in probabilistic terms (e.g. Exposure refers to the location, Average Damage Per Year) using the SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS characteristics, and value of assets such impacts of all events produced by a as people, buildings, critical facilities, model. In this risk profile we use "once and transport networks located in an in a decade", "once in a lifetime" and area that may be subject to a hazard "extreme event" to indicate the 1 in scenarios that are developed for the global assessments of the IPCC, and are event. 10 year, 1 in 50 year and 1 in 250 year return periods, respectively. ue nti pcfcrs sesett VULNERABILITY project population and economic growth between the baseline (current situation) Vulnerability is the susceptibility of average Damae PerYer0alo0veag assets to the forces of a hazard event. These risk profiles have been developed from aSchool facilities are obtained from a national database and multi-hazard assessment of exposure and risk using contain information on nuber of students, n umber of national level data and global hazard models. The risk classrooms and total value. Health facilities include hospitals modelling for all perils uses an exposure database developed and other healthcare facilities, containing information on the specifically for this project. Brief explanation of the exposure type of health facility and location information. data and risk modelling process are given below. Infrastructure values for single assets include mining and oil infrastructure, roads and railways, bridges, tunnels, and ICT infrastructure. Transportation data include roads, railways, Asse Datbaseand bridges, where present. Road surface type (paved, Asse Dat baseunpaved) is also included where available. Open and freely available national, regional, and global dsatasets are used to develop a database of exposed assets. Replacement costs for buildings, singular assets, and infrastructure are calculated as the construction cost per Building data are based on classifying land use into four square meter for each building or facility type, and cost per develop ment types: urban residential, rural residential, ilometer for roads and railway lines, based on road type non-residential and overlap, and infrastructure. The number and terrain (for rail). of buildings and total floor area is calculated for each development type, then classified into construction classes determined through a review of available sources. The distribution of population is based directly on global Hazard and Vulnerability population data at 1kmn spatial resolution, adjusted with national data at the district level and adjusted to fit a 9m x 9m gridded cell distribution over Afghanistan. For detailed case studies of Kabul, m spatial resolution building data is Flofd hazard in the risk assessment includes river (fluvial) used. flooding and flash flooding, although only river flooding is Non-esiental apial toc forsinula asetsincudeincluded in this risk profile document. Fluvial flooding is No-sietia atalskfrse ua sesicueetmtda eouino G sn lblmtoooia schools, airports, and health facilities. The typology of the balate a a hyolog o d a global florouting runway as well as the general infrastructure around the airport are examined and the value of the assets estimated. model, and an inundation downscaling routine. Flash 16 DISASTER RISK PROFILE I METHODOLOGY DISASTER RISK PROFILE U WT0D 0 flooding is estimated by deriving susceptibility indicators Future Projections based on topographic and land use maps. Flood loss curves are developed to define the potential damage to the various Country-scale projections to 2050 are used to model future assets based on the modelled inundation depth at each affected population and GDP. Future projections of frequency specific location. andintensity of climate hazards have been computed for flooding and drought, based on an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and the emission scenario RCP 6.0. OroughtPopulation and GDP projections for 2050 are applied to the Drought ris k assessment fo r all hazards, bas ed on growth rate s for Drought hazard is considered by its impact on water users: the period 2010-2050 from five different IPCC SSP scenarios agriculture (water shortage for irrigation), hydropower (see 'Glossary'), which were downscaled to high-resolution (hydropower production losses), and Domestic, Municipal using 2010 population distributions. GDP projections to and Industrial (DMI) use (water shortage for public water 2050 are based on the relationship between population and supply). Drought risk is based on modelled distributed GDP in 2010. rainfall and water balance. Drought duration and drought deficit volume per year are determined by event-based modelling. Monetary loss and population affected is estimated per sector and sub-basin per year based on a All of the data used in this analysis is hosted and deficit of water demand. U openly available on the Afghanistan GeoNode: http://disasterrisk.af.geonode.org/ Earthquake Earthquake hazard is based on probabilistic analysis of a stochastic hazard catalogue. The distribution of ground shaking intensity (e.g., peak ground acceleration) is produced on a gridded basis. The distribution of loss is estimated using fragility and vulnerability models developed using an analytical method. Landslide A spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility is defined using a GIS-based, weighted scoring of contributing facto rs, including slope angle, lithologya land cover, terrain curvature, distance from geological anults, and distance from roads. These source areas are combined with modelled flow (run- out) and accumulation of debris areas to create landslide hazard maps. Avalanche Avalanche hazard is defined by modelling avalanche susceptibility areas from the analysis of meteorological data and snow properties to determine likely starting points and snow conditions on slopes. Snow avalanche modelling is then performed to produce avalanche hazard maps delineating the likely starting and transition zones of avalanches, and in particular the runout areas of avalanche deposits. DISASTER RISK PROFILE I METHODOLOGY 17 1 * tr -ô Æ -i -~ -.i Aa 4' 44 4 44aJ4~ 4 、一織《一、' &:吃' 〕一計汙、/:一娥一、必、一:一 氈 7 Natural color image mosaic of Afghanistan. Credit: US Geological Survey in cooperation with US Agency for International Development.