59363 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 Policy Brief Understanding Conflict Dynamics Conflict and Development and Impacts in Indonesia Program Edition III November 2010 New Patterns of Violence in Indonesia: Preliminary Evidence from Six `High Conflict' Provinces The large-scale violent conflicts in Indonesia that took place during its transition to democracy have been This briefing provides early studied well. Yet relatively little evidence is available to policy-makers on the levels, forms and impacts of evidence from the Violent violent conflict in recent years. This brief provides early evidence from the Violent Conflict in Indonesia Study Conflict in Indonesia Study (ViCIS), commissioned by Bappenas, on conflict dynamics in six provinces affected by large-scale violence (ViCIS), a joint collaboration --Aceh, Central Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, Papua, and West Papua--for the 1998-2008 period. The between the Indonesian National results show that: Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), JRI-Research, the The extended communal and separatist violence that accompanied Indonesia's democratic transition has USAID-SERASI program, and now largely subsided since its 1999-2004 peak. However, many of the factors that drove these conflicts the World Bank's Conflict and have not been fully dealt with and old conflict issues continue to result in incidents of violence. Development program. The High levels of routine violent conflict--frequently occurring forms of violence, such as clashes between study's methodology is outlined in neighborhood gangs, violent political demonstrations, beatings of suspected thieves, or fights over land-- the following publication: are present in the six provinces. These have resulted in 2,000 violent conflict incidents on average per year since 2006, in areas accounting for only 4 percent of Indonesia's population. During 2006-2008, Patrick Barron, Sana Jaffrey, Blair these conflicts led to over 600 deaths, 6,000 injuries, and the destruction of more than 1,900 buildings. Palmer and Ashutosh Varshney Given that past episodes of extended violence were preceded by smaller-scale violent incidents, the high (2009). "Understanding Violent prevalence of routine violence indicates a potential for escalation. Conflict in Indonesia: A Mixed The nature of violent conflict in Indonesia has undergone a gradual shift. While identity issues were behind Methods Approach." Indonesian most of the large-scale violence between 1999-2004, popular justice issues are now dominant, accounting Social Development Paper No. 15. for more than half of the conflict deaths in recent years. The forms violent conflict is taking have also Jakarta: World Bank. shifted. Riots and group clashes continue to occur but less frequently, with assaults and fights accounting for most deaths in recent years. A brief documentary can be The security response to violent conflict remains weak. Only 7 percent of violent conflict incidents recorded viewed at: http://www.youtube. in the database between 2005-2008 saw any intervention from the military or the police, including the com/watch?v=UCngGGjxhE4 Special Forces (Brimob). Conflicts between elements of the security forces, which presented an obstacle to effective law enforcement during the high conflict period, also continue to lead to deadly incidents. Of the provinces covered so far, Papua shows the highest aggregate levels of violent conflict and Maluku registers the steepest rise in the number of violent conflict incidents in recent years. In Aceh, separatist Two series of Policy Briefs are violence ended in 2005 but the number of popular justice incidents has been on the rise since then; published by the Conflict and most of the post-MoU violence is concentrated in the pre-MoU conflict hotspots. Across each province, Development program within the levels, forms and impacts of violent conflict vary greatly between districts, showing the importance of World Bank Indonesia country local factors in driving violent conflict. team. The first, "Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts," There is a growing recognition among the government and civil society that a shift is needed in the national summarizes the results of approach to conflict management from ad-hoc responses to an overarching policy framework that adopts a research on conflict in Indonesia. preventative approach. Several initiatives are underway to create such a framework, including the drafting These briefs draw out lessons for of a new Grand Strategy for Conflict Prevention and Management and a legislative bill on Social Conflict understanding and responding Management. ViCIS findings highlight that such attempts should consider the following key issues and to conflict in other middle- measures: income countries. The second, "Evaluating Responses to Development of a comprehensive policy framework that addresses the structural causes of past large- Conflict," summarizes the results scale conflicts and prioritizes management of routine violent conflict to prevent escalation into larger of evaluations and assessments episodes. of conflict programs, and the Investment in systematic conflict monitoring, particularly in hot-spots, as a foundation for early-warning methodological implications of systems. how we can best measure the Measures to improve the ability of the law enforcement agencies to effectively respond to violence. impacts of peace-building efforts. Strengthening of local dispute resolution mechanisms to increase societal resilience and prevent All Policy Briefs are available at escalation. www.conflictanddevelopment.org Continued investment in peace-building programming in post-conflict areas, but with local leadership. Involvement of local actors in the formulation of a national policy framework. Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia 1 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 INTRODUCTION Map 1: Provinces covered by ViCIS Indonesia's democratic transition was accompanied by a range of violent conflicts. Separatist conflict in Aceh escalated and claimed thousands of lives before a successful peace deal in 2005, and continues at a low intensity in Papua. Thousands died in ethnic riots in West and Central Kalimantan and Jakarta. Inter-religious and inter- ethnic violence broke out in 1999 in Maluku and North Maluku and in 1998 and 2000 in Central Sulawesi. Terrorist acts have been infrequent but deadly. In addition, many areas have been affected by smaller- scale `routine' violent conflicts over is a need for new evidence to ensure analyzed in a separate publication. resources, politics, and identities. that policy-making is built on up-to- Key questions addressed are: date and accurate information on · How have violent conflict levels, The large-scale violent conflicts conflict dynamics. forms and impacts changed over have ended or reduced in intensity time in provinces that previously as Indonesia's democracy has This brief provides early evidence experienced high levels of consolidated. Yet relatively little from a new database on Indonesian violence? evidence is available to policy- violent conflicts. The Violent · Which places are currently most makers on the levels, forms and Conflict in Indonesia Study (ViCIS) affected by violent conflict? impacts of violent conflict in recent records all incidents of violent · How much variation is there years. Existing quantitative studies conflict and violent crime between between areas in recent patterns on violence do not cover the period 1998 and 2008 as reported in local of violent conflict? after 2003. The United Nations newspapers. This brief focuses Support Facility for Indonesian on trends and patterns of violent METHODOLOGY Recovery (UNSFIR) conflict database conflict in four provinces that were ViCIS aims to fill knowledge gaps (1990-2003), the most commonly previously affected by escalated on violent conflict in Indonesia to used quantitative source on violence (Aceh, Central Sulawesi, enhance evidence-based conflict Indonesian violent conflict, records Maluku, and North Maluku) as well management and prevention policy- only inter-group conflicts. Given that as Papua and West Papua, the sites making. The project consists of three much violent conflict in Indonesia of an ongoing low-level separatist components: is now smaller-scale, involving movement. The note does not individuals rather than groups, there consider violent crime which will be Mapping patterns of violent conflict. The first component involves the Box 1: Conflict Issues and Forms in ViCIS creation of a new violence dataset for 1998-2008/9 covering sixteen The ViCIS database includes all incidents of violent conflict and violent crime provinces, accounting for half of reported in local newspapers. Incidents are recorded as being conflicts if a pre- Indonesia's population. The ViCIS existing grievance is reported. If there is no such grievance, the database records the dataset includes all incidents of incident as being crime. violent conflict and violent crime Violent conflict incidents in the ViCIS database are coded by the issue at stake and reported in over 150 local (provincial the form violence takes. The conflict issue is not necessarily the cause of violence and district) newspapers. These but is the proximate problem or grievance that is reported as leading to the violence. are supplemented by, and checked Incidents are assigned to one or two main issue types: resource; administrative; against, other secondary sources political; identity; or popular justice. Within each of these, sub-types allow for a more accurate categorization. For example, categories of identity conflicts include including UNSFIR, NGO incident ethnic, religious, geographic, and gender identity conflicts. lists, and academic studies. ViCIS employs a wide definition of violent For each incident, the form violence takes is also coded. Violent forms include demonstrations, riots, lynchings, assaults, fights, group clashes, and terror attacks. conflict, collecting data on all Often an incident involves more than one of these forms of violence. conflicts between individuals and/ or groups that result in physical 2 Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 Figure 1: Conflict Deaths--Aceh, Central Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, Box 2: Using Newspapers to Map Papua, and West Papua (1998-2008) Violence 4000 The ViCIS database builds upon previous work that tracks violent 3500 conflict incidents through local newspapers. 3000 · The approach was initially used in Indonesia by UNSFIR Conflict Deaths 2500 to estimate the impacts of large-scale communal violence 2000 between 1990 and 2003 using national and provincial news 1500 sources (Varshney, Tadjoeddin, and Panggabean 2008). 1000 · Further research conducted 500 in East Java and East Nusa Tenggara provinces found 0 significantly higher impacts from 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 violence than did UNSFIR, both because it used sub-provincial papers and because it included small-scale violent conflicts, such as clashes between impacts such as deaths, injuries, or to minimize reporting biases by individuals (C&D 2008). property destruction. The database individual papers. Local researchers thus includes episodes of large-scale photographed over 600,000 pages · The method was used to track communal violence with high per- of archived newspapers for the violent conflict patterns in Aceh incident impacts, such as riots and 1998-2008 period. At present, the following the signing of the Helsinki peace agreement. Aceh other group clashes, and incidents database includes almost 30,000 Conflict Monitoring Updates of routine violent conflict with low violent incidents, providing the have been produced since per-incident impacts, such as fights most comprehensive quantitative 2005 (now called Aceh Peace and lynchings of suspected thieves picture of violence in `post-conflict' Monitoring Updates, published (Box 1). While violent crime is Indonesia to date. by the Center for Peace and included in the dataset, only the Conflict Resolution Studies at conflict incidents are analyzed in this Investigating the causes of violent Syiah Kuala University, Banda brief. conflict. The second component of Aceh). ViCIS will involve thematic qualitative Each incident is coded for a range studies designed to explore and · A pilot in Maluku and North explain trends from the database, Maluku provinces confirmed the of variables including its location, utility of using newspapers to the date it occurred, its physical including different patterns of map patterns of violence in high impacts, the form violence took and escalation and de-escalation of conflict areas in Indonesia. A the issue at stake, who was involved, violent conflict (not presented in comparison of newspapers with and what interventions took place this brief), and patterns of routine other sources such as police and to stop the violence. Strict quality violent conflict. These studies will hospital data and traditional control procedures ensure accuracy commence in late 2010. survey methods revealed that and consistency of coding. So far, the former provided more data has been collected from six Impacting policy by building accurate estimates of violence provinces with the next ten currently capacity. The third component aims and its impacts; newspapers ongoing (Map 1). The six-province to build the capacity of government recorded 50 percent more and non-government institutions to deaths than police and hospital dataset uses 46 local newspapers, sources, especially outside the which were selected after an track, analyze and effectively respond provincial capital, and experts assessment of the availability of to violent conflict by making the ViCIS interviewed assessed the their archives, their geographic data freely available and gradually newspaper counts to be the coverage, and their conflict reporting transferring the methodology to most accurate. policies. Multiple newspapers national institutions for ongoing were used from every province conflict monitoring efforts. Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia 3 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 FINDINGS Figure 2: Incidents of Violent Conflict (2000-2008) Key findings from the quantitative 2500 component of ViCIS--based on the conflict data collected from six provinces (Aceh, Central Sulawesi, 2000 Violent Conflict Incidents Maluku, North Maluku, Papua, and West Papua)--are as follows: 1500 Conflict fatalities in the six provinces have decreased significantly since 1000 2005. Violent conflict peaked in 1999 when an estimated 3,500 people 500 were killed in the six provinces. There was a swift drop in conflict 0 deaths in Central Sulawesi and the 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Moluccas from 2001. The conflict in Aceh intensified in 2001-2002 resulting in around 2,400 deaths per year. But since the MoU between the the political upheavals associated largely ended, many of these issues national government and the Free with the end of authoritarian continue to lead to violent conflict, Aceh Movement (GAM) was signed government; the transition to albeit on a smaller scale (Table 1). in August 2005, conflict fatalities democracy and decentralization; have declined sharply (see Figure 1). competition over access to natural The number of violent conflict resources including land; poor and incidents in the six provinces has However, many of the issues inconsistent law enforcement and risen in recent years. Excluding Aceh, associated with the large-scale inadequate security response to there were twice as many violent violent conflicts have not been fully outbreaks of conflict; the creation incidents in 2008 as in 2004. (Aceh addressed, resulting in ongoing and exploitation of divisive ethnic is excluded as large-scale violence incidents and the risk of future and religious identities by political was still ongoing in 2004). Similarly, escalation. Analysts of the episodes elites for instrumental purposes; in post-MoU Aceh, the number of large-scale violent conflict have and widespread corruption and of routine violence incidents (not pointed to a number of common poor governance (e.g. Bertrand related to the separatist conflict) issues that either led to violence or 2004; Sidel 2006; Van Klinken 2007). increased from 200 in 2006 to over assisted in escalation. These include: While large-scale violence has 500 in 2008 (Figure 2). Table 1: Old Conflict Issues and New Violence While deaths associated with large-scale communal violence Key issues behind large-scale violence Related violence in six provinces during that continue to surface 2006-2008 have declined, widespread routine Democracy and decentralization remain violent conflict is having significant 161 violent election-related incidents and 11 sources of conflict. Local elections (pilkada) deaths from disputes over redistricting. Most impacts. Since 2006, there have and administrative re-districting (pemekaran) regularly lead to violence, often through commonly occurring forms of such political been an average of 200 conflict- violence are vandalism, assaults, and violent the mobilization of ethnic and religious demonstrations. related deaths and 2,400 injuries organizations. per year from conflicts in the six Resource-related conflicts, for example 264 violent incidents and 33 deaths, with provinces, which together account conflict between individuals and groups over conflicts over land the most prevalent. Resource land, natural resources, and access to jobs, conflicts frequently take place as assaults, for only 4 percent of Indonesia's markets, etc, also result in violence. vandalism, and fights between individuals. population (Figure 3). The spike in Issues with effective law enforcement remain 3212 violent incidents as responses to impacts in the latter half of 2006 is perceived legal infractions (67 deaths), to as responses by security forces and justice perceived moral infractions (69 deaths), or to the result of tribal clashes in Papua, institutions are often absent or ineffective. In many cases violence is used to resolve small offence or loss of face (155 deaths). Popular which led to 34 deaths and over 400 justice incidents mostly occur as assaults and disputes or to apply `vigilante justice'. lynchings. injuries. Other studies, conducted Identity issues such as ethnicity, religion and 131 incidents took place leading to 69 deaths. in East Java, NTT, Lampung, Bali, tribal affiliations continue to result in conflict About half of the violent identity related and West Java, suggest that routine fatalities, albeit at a smaller scale. conflicts took place as group clashes and riots. violent conflict may be prevalent in Poor governance issues such as misuse of 178 violent conflict incidents over corruption other parts of the country (Barron, government funds, inadequate provision and government performance, mostly in of public services and poor program the form of vandalism, assaults and violent Diprose and Woolcock 2011; Barron implementation still lead to violent incidents. demonstrations. and Madden 2004; ICG 2003; Welsh 4 Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 2008). Routine violent conflict is Figure 3: Recent Trends: Aggregate Conflict Impacts from Six Provinces (2006-2008) important not just for its impacts. It also has the potential to create a 900 culture where the use of violence 800 becomes an accepted means of 700 settling disputes, sparking cycles 600 of retribution and reducing trust 500 in state institutions. High levels 400 of such violence could lead to 300 the establishment of networks of 200 violent actors such as gangs, which 100 may be mobilized for escalation 0 and contribute to existing political Q1-06Q2-06Q3-06Q4-06Q1-07Q2-07Q3-07Q4-07Q1-08Q2-08Q3-08Q4-08 and social tensions as happened in the earlier large-scale episodes. Injuries Buildings Damaged The significant impacts and rising number of violent conflict incidents indicate the need for continuous risk Figure 4: Conflict Deaths by Issue in Six Provinces (2006-2008) management and the prioritization of conflict prevention in the policy agenda. Identity conflicts continue to occur but popular justice issues are now Unclear associated with the most deaths. 29 % A decade ago, most deaths were Popular Justice from large-scale ethno-religious 50 % or separatist conflicts. In contrast, between 2006 and 2008 identity Indentity issues accounted for only 2 percent 10 % of the total incidents but still 10 percent of conflict deaths (Figure 4). This shows that even when they Political 2% occur in lower numbers, violent Administrative identity conflicts have high fatality 3% Natural Resources rates. Administrative, resource 6% and political issues are present but produce only a small proportion of fatalities. The dominant issue at Figure 5: Conflict Deaths by Form in Six Provinces (2006-2008) stake in recent violence is `popular justice', accounting for about half of Others Demonstration 2% 1% the total deaths (and 55 percent of Riot 1% incidents). This category includes: violent responses to perceived moral infractions, such as sexual Group Clash indiscretions, alcohol use, debt or 14 % witchcraft (12% of all deaths during 2006-2008); violent responses to crimes committed by others such as Assault Fights 63 % 14 % thefts, assaults, car accidents and vandalism (11% of all deaths); as well as violent responses to a loss of face or an insult (27% of all deaths). Lynchings 4% This type of violence sometimes occurs between ethnic groups or Terror Attacks 1% between locals and migrants, thus expressing identity-based tensions. Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia 5 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 The tendency to use violence in small Figure 6: Average Annual Conflict Deaths per 100,000 people (2006-2008) disputes as well as the propensity to take the law into one's own hands suggests a lack of trust that law enforcement and justice institutions C. Sulawesi will carry out their roles effectively. W.Papua Papua Forms of violent conflict have also shifted. Riots and group clashes Aceh continue to occur but in smaller N.Maluku numbers, with assaults and fights Maluku accounting for most deaths in recent years. Most of the violent 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 conflict during 1999-2002 unfolded in the form of deadly riots and group clashes, which resulted in large-scale destruction. In the recent period Figure 7: Annual Conflict Incidents, Deaths and Injuries in Maluku (2002-2008) (2006-2008), 14 percent of all deaths occurred during group clashes, 500 but riots account for only a small 450 percentage of deaths (as do terror 400 attacks, which are heavily covered 350 by the national media)--Figure 5. 300 Instead, small-scale incidents such as 250 one-way assaults and two-way fights account for over three-quarters of 200 all conflict deaths. 150 100 Use of firearms remains relatively 50 low except in Aceh. The data show 0 that the most frequently used 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 weapons in violent cases resulting in deaths are sharp weapons such Deaths Injuries as knives. The use of firearms in fatal incidents by private individuals remains relatively low, except in crowd beats one or a few individuals) separatist violence are reported post-MoU Aceh where 7 percent of and riots were less successful, at 32 for Papua resulting in 30 deaths. In violent incidents involved the use of percent and 57 percent respectively. contrast, there were 3,308 violent firearms. These incidents resulted in conflict incidents related to other 19 percent of Aceh's deaths during Conflicts between elements of the issues, resulting in 318 deaths. The the 2006-2008 period. security forces, which presented media assessment ascertained, an obstacle to effective law however, that newspapers under- The security response to violent enforcement during the high conflict report separatist incidents, which conflict remains weak. The military period, continue to lead to deadly are deemed `sensitive'. The or the police, including the Special incidents. From 2004 to 2008, the importance of the separatist conflict Forces (Brimob), intervened in database records 107 incidents of goes far beyond the number of only 7 percent of all the violent violence between members of the incidents. The presence of such high conflict incidents recorded during police (including Brimob) and the levels of routine violent conflict in 2005-2008 across the six provinces. military resulting in 24 deaths. an environment with significant Only 29 percent of riots and group tensions surrounding separatist, clashes during this period saw any There is large variation between anti-migrant, tribal and resource intervention. Overall, in cases where provinces in the incidence and extraction issues highlights the risk an intervention was attempted it impacts of violent conflict in recent of escalation. was successful in halting the violence years. Papua shows the highest in 66 percent of cases. However, levels of violent conflict followed Levels of violent conflict are rising attempted interventions to stop by Maluku (Figure 6). During 2004- most rapidly in Maluku. In Maluku, lynchings (pengeroyokan--where a 2008, a total of 40 incidents of the site of one of the worst episodes 6 Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 of religious violence in Indonesia's Figure 8: Distribution of pre-MoU and post-MoU violence in Aceh recent history, the number of violent conflict incidents has been increasing steadily since 2002 (see Figure 7). Violent Incidents: Pre-MoU Violent Incidents: Post-MoU (Annual Average 2000-Aug 2005) (Annual Average Sept 2005-2008) Most dominant are popular justice conflicts, with some resource and ACEH BARAT administrative conflicts also taking ACEH BARAT ACEH BARAT DAYA place. ACEH BARAT DAYA ACEH BESAR ACEH BESAR ACEH SELATAN Separatist violence in Aceh ended ACEH SELATAN ACEH TAMIANG with the 2005 MoU, but routine ACEH TAMIANG ACEH TENGAH violent conflict is increasing and ACEH TENGAH often is concentrated in the old ACEH TENGGARA ACEH TENGGARA conflict hotspots. Whereas there ACEH TIMUR ACEH TIMUR were 193 violent conflict incidents ACEH UTARA ACEH UTARA in 2006, there were 468 incidents BANDA ACEH BANDA ACEH occurred in 2008. Popular justice BIREUEN BIREUEN and resource conflicts are the most LANGSA LANGSA common issues. The majority of LHOKSEUMAWE LHOKSEUMAWE incidents in post-MoU Aceh are NAGAN RAYA NAGAN RAYA taking place in the same districts PIDIE PIDIE that experienced the highest levels PIDIE JAYA PIDIE JAYA of violence during the separatist Others Others conflict, notably Bireuen, Aceh Utara, and Aceh Timur (Figure 8). Banda 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 25 50 Aceh and Lhokseumawe, which saw relatively less separatist violence due to high levels of security presence before the MoU, have also Figure 9: Different Violent Conflict Patterns Across Districts in Papua emerged as sites of routine violence in recent years. Forthcoming qualitative research will explore Figure 9 a: Distribution of conflict deaths Figure 9 b: Conflict Deaths by Issue why some districts in Indonesia that in Papua (2006-2008) in Mimika (2006-2008) experienced large-scale violence are now witnessing higher levels of routine violent conflict than others. Others JAYAPURA Popular Variation in violent conflict within 13% Justice 19% Resource 24% provinces is large. The incidence, Others 1% predominant forms, and impacts of 26 % Administrative 1% violent conflict vary widely between KOTA JAYAPURA Identity 55% districts. For the 2006-2008 period, 20% just over half of all conflict deaths in Papua were recorded as occurring MIMIKA in two districts: Kota Jayapura and 33 % MERAUKE Figure 9 c: Conflict Deaths by Issue Mimika. However, the issue at stake 8% in Kota Jayapura (2006-2008) and the form violence took differ greatly between the two (Figure 9). In Mimika, more than half of conflict Others Administrative 0% deaths were associated with identity 22% issues, usually involving large clashes Popular Justice Resource between tribes, often in retribution 63% 13% for earlier violence. In Kota Jayapura, popular justice issues were the most Identity frequent, but the identity aspect was 2% absent and violence mostly took the form of small-scale assaults rather Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia 7 Understanding Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in Indonesia No.3/November 2010 than group clashes. Similarly, a large-scale violent conflict REFERENCES comparison of the two most violent while prioritizing effective Patrick Barron, Rachael Diprose, and districts in Central Sulawesi reveals management of routine violent Michael Woolcock (forthcoming 2011). that while 58 percent of the violent conflict in the future. Contesting Development: Participatory conflict incidents in Palu since 2006 · Determine a clearer division Projects and Local Conflict Dynamics in have taken the form of assaults, in Indonesia. New Haven: Yale University of responsibilities between Poso the dominant form of violence national and local governments, Press. in the same period was terror attacks and between the state and civil (43 percent) using explosive devices. 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"Using Newspapers to conflict dynamics in their areas Understand Variation in Violent Conflict: many of the issues at the heart of the and strengthen their ability to Towards a Database of Violence in earlier large-scale unrest have not effectively respond to violence. Indonesia." Policy Brief: Understanding been fully addressed and continue to Conflict Dynamics and Impacts in lead to violence. The dataset records · Enhance informal dispute Indonesia No. 1. Jakarta: World Bank. rising levels of small-scale routine resolution mechanisms and violent conflict in recent years, with access to justice at the local International Crisis Group (ICG) significant aggregate impacts. High level by training local leaders in (2003). "The Perils of Private Security levels of routine violence pose a risk conflict resolution to prevent in Indonesia: Guards and Militias on of escalation into larger conflicts. the escalation of disputes into Bali and Lombok." Asia Report No. 67. There is a growing recognition violent incidents. Jakarta/Brussels: ICG. among government and civil society that a shift is needed in the national · Continue investing in peace- Gerry van Klinken (2007). Communal building programming in post- Violence and Democratization in approach to conflict management conflict provinces, particularly in Indonesia: Small Town Wars. London: from ad-hoc responses to an Papua given that it experiences Routledge. overarching policy framework that high levels of violence in an that adopts a preventative approach. environment of rising tensions. John T. Sidel (2006). Riots, Pogroms, Several initiatives are underway Jihad: Religious Violence in Indonesia. to create such a framework, · Invest in regular, systematic Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press. including drafting a new Grand research to gather up-to-date Strategy for Conflict Prevention information on patterns and Ashutosh Varshney, Mohammad Zulfan and Management, a draft bill on impacts of violent conflict Tadjoeddin, and Rizal Panggabean (2008). Social Conflict Management, and in additional provinces and "Creating Datasets in Information-Poor the design of a Conflict Prevention conduct ongoing monitoring of Environments: Patterns of Collective Framework. ViCIS findings highlight conflict patterns in key hotspots Violence in Indonesia, 1990-2003." that such attempts should consider such as Papua and Maluku. Journal of East Asian Studies 8: 361-394. the following key issues and Such monitoring requires measures: close partnerships between Bridget Welsh (2008). "Local and government and non-state National: Keroyakan Mobbing in · Systematically address the bodies, with the latter collecting Indonesia." Journal of East Asian Studies structural causes behind past and analyzing data to help inform 8(3): 473-504. government responses. For further information, please contact: Conflict and Development Team Jl. Peurada Utama No. 11A, PSF - The World Bank Satellite Office Gampong Peurada, Banda Aceh info@conflictanddevelopment.org Jl. Diponegoro No. 72, Menteng Phone: +62-651 755 1176 Jakarta 10310 - INDONESIA Fax: +62-651 755 1178 Phone: +62-21-314 8175 Fax: +62-21-3190 3090 Please visit our website: email: info@conflictanddevelopment.org http://www.conflictanddevelopment.org 8 Policy Brief | Conflict and Development Program - World Bank Office Indonesia