For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects November 11, 2016 Taking Stock U.S. weekly jobless claims declined; U.S. equity markets priced in stronger growth and higher inflation. U.S. th jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 254,000 in the week ended November 5 , more than expected, underscoring the robustness of the labor market. Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets rose to a record-high on Thursday, following the presidential election, as investors are pricing in stronger output growth and higher inflation. Euro Area growth forecasts were revised down; inflation expectations accelerated . The European Commission cut its growth forecasts for the Euro Area for the next two years, citing heightened uncertainty from the Brexit referendum. The growth forecast for 2017 was cut by 0.3 percentage points to 1.5 percent, while the forecast for 2018 was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, the Euro Area’s long-term inflation expectation measure rose to 1.5 percent on Thursday, its highest level in 8 months, on the assumption of more expansive fiscal policy in the United States. China’s foreign reserves and trade continued to fall in October. China’s foreign reserves fell $45.7 billion to $3.12 trillion in October, the largest monthly decline since January (Figure 1), following a $19 billion fall in September. The October drop, the fourth in a raw, reflected valuation effects more than increased intervention. Separately, China’s exports valued in U.S. dollars fell 7.3 percent (y/y) in October, more than expected, following a 10 percent contraction in September. Modest improvements in exports to the U.S. and ASEAN countries were offset by sharp declines in exports to the EU and South Korea. Imports fell 1.4 percent (y/y), less than expected and less than September’s 1.9 percent decline. Currencies and stocks in emerging markets tumbled following the U.S. presidential election. The Mexican peso dropped 7.7 percent against the U.S. dollar. The currencies of South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, and Brazil fell between 1.5 and 2.5 percent. Shares in Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea dropped at least 2 percent (Figure 2). Emerging market stocks and currencies continued to weaken on Friday. Inflation pressures eased in several Sub-Saharan African countries in October. In Ghana, inflation came in at 15.8 percent (y/y), the lowest since July 2014 and down from 17.2 percent in September, reflecting lower cost of food and services. In Tanzania and Uganda, inflation remained steady at 4.5 percent (y/y) and 4.1 percent (y/y), respectively. However, inflation picked up in Namibia (from 6.9 percent in September to 7.3 percent in October) and in Rwanda (from 7.4 percent in September to 9.1 percent in October), on account of rising transport and food prices. Figure 1 China's foreign-exchange reserves fell sharply in Figure 2 Emerging markets’ currencies and stocks fell sharply October. following the U.S. election. China’s foreign-exchange reserves Emerging-market currencies and stocks US$, billions US$, billions 1-day change EM stocks 1-day change 150 4,000 (percent) EM currencies(RHS) (percent) 0 0 100 3,500 50 -1 -3 0 3,000 -2 -6 -50 2,500 -3 -9 -100 Monthly change in reserves Turkey Mexico China India Brazil South Africa South Korea -150 Foreign-exchange reserves (RHS) 2,000 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jul-12 Jan-15 Source: Blooming. Source: Blooming. Notes: Percent changes from Tuesday, November 8. Produced by DECPG. Number 325 | November 11, 2016 Weekly Insight: Market Forces and OPEC’s Ability to Control Prices Formal commodity agreements have limited ability to influence markets and have historically eventually collapsed. In the case of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), guiding global oil prices will be challenging in the presence of unconventional oil producers, notably U.S. shale oil. Following the 2008-09 financial crisis, virtually all commodity prices rebounded, led by oil prices, due to large production cuts by OPEC and strong emerging market demand. Commodity prices reached a new peak in early 2011, but markets began to tilt into surplus due to weaker economic growth prospects for emerging markets and a buildup of supply. Industrial commodity prices began falling but oil prices remained high for nearly four more years. OPEC production restraint and production outages in a number of countries offset the large growth in non-OPEC supply, which came mainly from U.S. shale. However, global oil supply was building, not only from shale, but from other sources including biofuels, Canadian oil sands, and non-OPEC members such as Brazil, China, and Russia (Figure 3). Oil prices began to fall, declining to under $30 per barrel in January 2016. The development of U.S. shale deposits has altered the energy industry landscape. Spurred by shale technologies and high prices, shale oil production grew quickly and became the main source of growth in U.S. oil production. It now accounts for more than 5 percent of global oil production. The shale industry continues to make significant gains in productivity, technology, and operating practices. With the collapse in oil prices over the past two years, production costs have fallen significantly. In addition, U.S. shale oil producers benefit from the fact that they are able to hedge the bulk of their production forward on futures markets and receive a predictable revenue stream. OPEC’s decision to reinstate quotas comes as the oil market adjusts its balance of stocks and supply to a period of lower prices. The organization’s decision also comes as prices are near their 50-year average (Figure 4). Should OPEC and other producers succeed in restraining production and lifting prices meaningfully, investment in oil production and non-OPEC supply would likely rise—especially in view of the flexible nature of shale oil production. This is likely to test OPEC’s ability to lift oil prices in the medium term . Figure 3 The rise in non-OPEC oil supply came not only from the Figure 4 Oil prices are nearing their 50-year average. United States, but also from unconventional sources including biofuels. Non-OPEC oil supply growth 2005-2015 Half a century of oil prices United States US$/bbl, deflated by U.S. CPI (2014 terms) Biofuels 150 Russia Canada 1985-86 price collapse 120 Price drops 66% in 82 days Brazil China Colombia 90 Azerbaijan Kazakhstan 60 1965-2016 average Oman price: $48.24/bbl Thailand South Sudan 30 Ghana 2015-16 price collapse Price drops 51% in 83 days 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 mb/d 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Source: International Energy Agency. Source: World Bank. Note: Biofuels are not included in country totals. Note: Last observation is September 2016. Produced by DECPG. Number 325 | November 11, 2016 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 4 November - Thu, 10 November 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 11 November - Thu, 17 November 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Hungary 11/8/16 CPI OCT 1.0 0.6 Malaysia 11/10/16 GDP Q3 4.0 China 11/8/16 CPI OCT 2.1 2.0 1.9 Japan 11/13/16 GDP Q3 0.7 Brazil 11/9/16 CPI OCT 7.9 7.9 8.5 Germany 11/15/16 GDP Q3 1.8 Mexico 11/9/16 CPI OCT 3.1 3.1 3.0 Czech Republic 11/15/16 GDP Q2 2.6 Netherland 11/10/16 CPI OCT 0.4 0.2 0.1 Portugal 11/15/16 GDP Q3 0.9 Denmark 11/10/16 CPI OCT 0.2 0.1 -0.1 Thailand 11/16/16 GDP Q3 3.5 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.1 1.8 Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 0.6 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.2 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 3.4 4.7 2.2 4.3 3.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.5 Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 1.2 0.6 1.6 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.9 - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 5.5 6.0 2.8 5.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 5.5 7.7 3.3 7.1 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.5 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.0 5.9 4.3 3.6 4.3 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 1.4 Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 2.8 4.5 1.1 0.3 1.6 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 -0.4 1.5 0.1 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -4.4 -6.6 -3.0 0.8 -5.1 -4.6 -4.2 -4.9 -4.3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 - Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 1.4 9.9 2.2 -3.3 4.9 2.2 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 - - South Asia 2.6 4.2 3.7 -7.3 4.4 5.3 -1.3 0.9 0.2 3.4 2.5 -0.4 1.6 2.9 -2.0 -1.8 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 0.1 6.2 -1.3 1.5 8.3 -1.3 0.2 -0.8 1.5 -1.3 2.3 4.1 4.3 1.5 0.0 0.2 2 Inflation, sa World 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.8 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.5 Other EMDE 2.9 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.2 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.6 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.5 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.6 South Asia 6.8 3.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5 4.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.6 -6.9 -6.2 -12.1 14.6 -11.1 -10.1 -11.9 -9.0 -3.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3.8 -6.6 2.5 -1.1 Advanced Economies 1.2 -11.3 -6.0 -7.2 -5.1 15.5 -9.8 -9.9 -9.3 -4.0 -3.6 -0.3 -0.7 -2.3 -5.5 4.7 1.0 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.8 -12.0 -8.2 -4.5 -22.7 12.9 -13.1 -10.3 -16.0 -16.3 -3.7 -6.6 -6.6 -6.2 -8.3 -1.2 -4.6 Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.8 -24.4 -23.3 -12.3 -24.9 18.7 -23.5 -21.1 -24.9 -13.5 -15.5 -13.5 -10.7 -11.8 -13.8 0.2 - Other EMDE 4.9 -3.8 0.9 -0.3 -20.0 10.9 -6.8 -3.9 -11.1 -17.1 4.5 -2.3 -3.8 -2.4 -5.0 -0.9 -4.9 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 -1.6 -0.6 -24.0 12.3 -7.9 -4.2 -13.2 -20.5 6.1 -3.7 -5.1 -4.4 -6.1 -1.0 -6.4 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -16.2 -8.4 -20.5 20.0 -17.7 -14.7 -22.1 -13.0 -13.1 -8.2 -10.4 -3.8 -8.6 1.5 - Latin America and Caribbean -1.0 -12.0 -10.4 -8.6 -6.6 5.4 -11.8 -11.6 -11.6 -4.1 -9.2 -5.4 -2.1 -8.1 -7.5 2.1 2.1 Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -15.9 -7.5 - - -24.1 -22.1 -23.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.8 -8.6 8.3 5.1 3.9 -8.9 -5.4 -3.0 4.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 5.3 -4.0 -12.0 - Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5 -28.8 -25.7 -18.2 -27.8 - -28.1 -28.3 -27.5 -22.9 -19.7 -13.4 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -6.4 -6.4 -14.0 10.1 -10.3 -11.1 -11.7 -5.2 -7.5 -5.9 -2.4 -5.2 -10.0 1.2 -1.7 Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -5.4 -6.7 -9.5 8.2 -8.9 -11.2 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.1 -1.9 -4.7 -8.7 0.9 -2.0 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -7.9 -5.8 -21.1 14.1 -12.7 -11.0 -15.1 -9.6 -8.6 -9.0 -3.0 -5.8 -12.1 2.1 -0.6 Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.5 -14.9 -11.0 -11.2 -17.7 -0.6 -15.8 -17.0 -18.2 -14.9 -13.6 -13.5 -9.1 -8.4 -16.6 -2.0 - Other EMDE 0.8 -11.5 -6.2 -2.7 -24.1 19.5 -11.0 -7.5 -13.2 -6.8 -6.4 -7.6 -0.7 -5.4 -11.3 3.7 0.2 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -6.6 -0.6 -28.8 24.5 -8.7 -8.4 -16.7 -11.1 -5.3 -8.2 0.8 -6.5 -10.9 5.5 -0.4 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -8.8 -9.8 3.7 11.8 -18.5 -18.0 -14.8 -5.1 -3.6 -3.1 -1.4 1.0 -10.5 7.8 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -6.4 -13.5 -16.2 3.9 -11.0 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -9.9 -6.2 -8.9 -16.1 1.3 -2.6 Middle East and North Africa 2.9 -6.3 -10.4 -3.0 - - -11.7 -9.1 -12.8 - - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -4.3 -11.4 -29.7 1.6 -25.1 -3.3 -6.8 -3.5 -18.8 -18.8 -9.4 -7.0 -14.7 -9.6 1.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.3 -17.8 -8.7 - - -9.7 -11.5 -18.8 - - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.3 -2.7 0.7 0.9 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 Advanced Economies 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -1.1 3.7 1.7 -1.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.1 -9.9 -3.6 -3.6 -1.1 0.4 -2.1 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 Commodity-exporting EMDE -7.0 -11.3 -2.7 -2.1 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.1 -1.7 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.4 0.6 - - Other EMDE 0.7 -9.1 -4.0 -4.4 -1.2 0.7 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 0.0 0.9 0.7 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -11.3 -4.9 -4.4 -1.8 0.3 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 Europe and Central Asia -16.7 -6.3 1.3 -3.7 4.0 2.8 -2.0 -1.6 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 0.1 -5.3 -2.8 -1.5 0.1 0.6 -1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 Middle East and North Africa -2.7 -16.9 -3.4 -3.7 -3.4 - -2.3 -0.7 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 - - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.7 -0.6 1.3 1.0 1.6 -0.4 0.8 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.4 1.8 0.6 1.4 Sub-Saharan Africa -9.6 -11.9 -2.0 -0.1 -2.1 - -0.4 -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 0.4 -1.6 - - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG. Number 325 | November 11, 2016 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.79 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.89 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.30 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.18 1.92 1.75 1.56 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.74 2.01 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.56 0.32 0.12 -0.07 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.20 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 431 478 419 372 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 357 354 Asia 206 232 245 264 227 197 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 192 184 Europe 287 348 311 339 305 282 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 274 271 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 577 645 551 477 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 453 457 Middle East 388 471 506 555 538 508 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 487 453 Africa 323 449 509 626 548 461 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 441 420 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 399 395 399 418 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 413 411 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1663 1638 1653 1726 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1697 1692 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 2044 2051 2099 2168 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 2139 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1474 1352 1339 1388 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1377 1358 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 18817 16555 15576 16450 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 17050 16252 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 794 821 834 903 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 908 902 EM Asia 457 404 404 404 407 448 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 444 441 EM Europe 297 244 244 272 265 273 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 274 270 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 211 230 225 233 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 232 229 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1830 2121 2269 2381 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2608 2600 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.91 Japan 105.89 121.00 121.41 115.23 107.96 102.36 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 103.72 105.67 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.25 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.18 3.23 China 6.16 6.29 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.67 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.74 6.79 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.88 8.04 8.87 8.87 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 9.25 17.42 India 61.03 64.14 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.94 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.73 66.44 Russia 38.58 61.34 66.17 74.84 65.84 64.61 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.57 63.81 South Africa 10.85 12.77 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.07 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.92 13.49 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.4 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 119.7 121.3 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Energy 2 118 65 54 43 56 57 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 64 68 Non-energy 2 97 82 78 76 81 82 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 81 Agriculture 2 103 89 86 85 91 91 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 89 89 Metals and minerals 2 88 68 60 59 62 65 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 65 68 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 42 33 45 45 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 44 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1107 1181 1260 1334 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1266 1224 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 627 363 613 736 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 870 911 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG. Number 325 | November 11, 2016