25537 0233 : 2002 . . , ; , , . , , , , - , , . , : World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. .: (202) 458-5267, : (202) 614-0471, : socialprotection@worldbank.org., - : http://www.worldbank.org.org/sp. : 2002 . , () , , . 1 , . , , , . , , , . , , .., , . (). . , , (.: (202) 458-5267, : (202) 614- 0471, : socialprotection@worldbank.org. , , : www.worldbank.org/poverty/safety. - . , , : http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/socialsafetynets. , 2002 1 Tabor Rogers and Coates Alderman Bitran and Giedion Katsura and Romanik Subbarao Sharma and Morduch Grosh, Blomquist and Ouerghi de Neubourg Coady, Grosh and Hoddinott Blomquist Graham Besley, Burgess, Rasul Ezemenari et al Conning and Kevane , / Smith and Subbarao Fox , Grosh and Schwarz 1 , , . 2 , , , , . , . ( ) , . , , , , . 3 ? ........................................................................................9 : ......................................20 .............................25 .......................................................................................................................28 ..............................................................................................................30 : , , ............................................................................................................................33 .....................................................................35 : .............................................................................................................................36 : ....................................................................................................................39 ...............................................................................................39 .....................................................................................42 « » « »?..........................................................43 .......................................................................................................................47 ...................................................................................................................49 1. % , 1997........................................10 2. 2. , , 1998............................................................................................................................24 4 1. , , 1978­98............11 2. , , (%)............................................................................................13 3. , , 1990......................................................16 3. , , 1990......................................................17 4. , , 2000..............................22 5. , , 2000.........................26 6. ...........................................................28 7. , , 2000....................31 8. , , , 2000 .........................................................................................................33 5 : , , - , 1 , , , . , , , , . , . , . , . , , . , ­ . . , , , ( ), , 2, . , , , , . , , , , , , , ( ) 1 . , . , . 2, . , . 6 3. , , , , . , , 4. , , , 5. , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , (., , , - , , - , ). , . , - , . , , , ­ , «» . 3 , , . Graham (2001). . Lusting (2000). 4 Graham (1998). 5 Birsdall and Graham (2000). . I Graham and Petinato ( ). 7 , . , (, ). , , . . , ; , , « ». , , ; ; , . , ; , . , - - , , , , . , « ...», , ; , , , , . . ­ . , ( ), , , , . - (., - ) 8 () / () . , , , . , , - « » ( ) , .6 , « », , . , . ? , , . ., , , - (.1). ( ) , 7. « », «» . , , , , , . , , , 8. , , Alberto Alesina, Rafael di Tella and Robert MacCulloch (2000); , 6 Graham, Grindle, Lora and Seddon (1999). 7, , , , , . . Birsdall and Haggard (2000). 8 ., , de Tocqueville (1969); , . McMurrer and Sawhill (1998). 9 ; , . , , «» , . 1. % , 1997 . Japan United States Canada Germany United Kingdom Italy Belgium Austria France Denmark Norway Netherlands Sweden 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 : World Bank, Safety Nets website. () . 30 000 1972 1993 9. - (, , , ), , , , , , ( 1). 9 , . , Oswald . , . 10 1. , , 1978­98 . 1 2 : - z-. - z-. -0.042 -10.29 -0.054 -9.08 2 0.048 11.30 0.061 9.83 -0.143 -6.24 -0.126 -3.81 a -0.473 -13.55 -0.421 -8.30 a -0.022 -0.31 0.000 0.00 0.803 31.56 0.758 21.03 0.038 9.22 0.029 4.77 b 0.000 14.61 0.000 9.88 -0.726 -10.72 -0.684 -6.80 0.094 2.05 0.002 0.03 c ... ... -0.063 -7.21 -R2 0.043 0.045 31 817 15 419 logits ( ) a. ; ­ / b. 1998 . log 1 0,234 z- 11,24. c. , . ( 7- ) : . , , , (McMurrer and Sawhill 1998; Erikson and Goldthorpe 1985). « ». (Roland Benabou and Efe Ok), , , , , , . () (Benabou and Ok 1998). , , (Alberto Alesina and Eliana La Ferrara) (2000) : , , , , , « » , . 11 , , , . , , 33 , 20 . (Thomas Piketty) (1995) , . (Giacomo Corneo and Hans Peter Gruner) (2000) , , , , , , . , , « » « », - . , , , . , . , , (., ), . , , , . : , , , , , (Gilens 1999) ( 2). , , , , (Boeri, Borsh-Supan, and Tabellini 2001). , , , . , (Benjamin Page and Robert Shapiro), , . , , 12 , , 11. . 2. , , (%) : , ? 34 60 79 37 34 15 24 6 5 4 1 1 ? 42 63 79 36 32 16 20 6 4 3 0 1 ? 41 51 69 40 42 23 18 6 8 1 1 1 ? 25 39 69 38 46 22 32 14 7 5 1 1 : Smith, Tom W. "The Welfare State in Cross-National Perspective," Public Opinion Quarterly, S1. No. 3, Fall 1997, p. 417. . « », 11 Page and Shapiro, . Gilens (1999), .25. , , , . , , , ( ), . . Gilens (1999), .25. 13 ­ 1960- . ( 42 . )12. , , 20- . , « », , 1960- , « ». « » (), - . 1990- ( 1996 ) 9,4% , 12 . , , , 90- 13. , , , . 1980- ; , . , 1990- , , « », , . ( , ) , , 2000 . 17. , , , , ( 12 42 . , 12 1999 (Burtless and Siegel, 2001). 13 . Murray, Serafini, and Twohey (2001). (1995 2000 .). 18 . 191 . ( 1995 .). 17 6,5 . (Murray et al., 2001 , , - , . , , .., 25 2001 .). , . , « » 8,9 , , .. 21 . 236 . (1995 2000 .). 14 ) 18. , 1996 , , , ( / , , ) (, ) . : 19. , : , - , , , . , , . «» « » , , , ( , - .. , 200% ) . , (2001 .), (), «» . , , : 47 45 , 20. , . , , ­ , . , ( 200 , 34 000 . ) , , . 18 , , , . , . , , , , . . Morris and others (2000). 19. Sawhill (2001). 20 1 952 18 . 15 ; 1990 1 330 . , , () , . , , () , , ; (. 3 3). , (Martin Gilens), , , , (Gilens, 1999). , , , , . , . , , , (Gilens 1999, .57). 3a. , , 1990 . 1 : - z- 0.003 0.150 2 -0.008 -0.400 -0.279 -2.450 a 0.817 4.240 a 0.474 1.590 -0.043 -0.350 -0.077 -3.650 b 0.000 -3.580 0.389 0.980 -0.169 -4.030 -R2 0.0394 - 1 165 logit a. ­ «/» b. 1998 . log , ­0,275 z- of ­3,870. : . 16 T 3b. , , 1990 . 1 : - z- 0.015 0.710 2 -0.011 -0.540 -0.017 -0.150 a -0.362 -1.910 a -0.480 -1.580 0.124 0.970 -0.080 -3.680 b 0.000 0.060 0.329 0.820 0.167 3.860 -R2 0.0219 - . 1 170 logit a. ­ «/» b. 1998 . log , 0,125 z- of 1,76, . : . «» « » , ( , ). ; , (Theda Scokpol) : ( ), . ( « ») , «», , . , ., (Robert Greenstein), , , «» , , , «Head Start»21. . , . . , 21 . Skocpol (1991) Greenstein (1991). 17 () . (Jan Nelson) ( ), , , , , . Peter Lindert (1996) , , , . , , , , . , , , . Gilens (1999, .43) , « , , , , , ». , «» , . ., Gilens , , . , . , , , «» , . , - «» . , , , . , : . , , « » . , , ( ) , , . , , ( , 18 ). . , , 27 . , , , , 50 . (Gilens 1999, .68-69). , , , . ., , « , , ». 50 , , , . (Gilens 1999, .177). Erzo Luttmer (2000), , « »: , . . Luttmer , . Larry Orr (1976), , , , , 2 000 . , , . , «» 22. , . 20 000 1992 (« 165») , , , , 23. 22 ristopher Howard (1997), Gilens (1999), , . 23 «» 165, ­ , . R2 0,40 0,75 . 19 , « 165». , , . , , . Alesina, Baqur and Easterly (1999) , , - (, , ) ( )24. , , ­ . ( ), , . , , . : , «» « » , , , - . . , , . : , . . , , , , . , 17 , ( ) . 24 Levine (1997), Easterly , 20 «Latinobarometro» , ( 17 , 17 000 ); 1997 2000 .25. , (2000), . , . , , , . . , , , . , . , , . , , , , . ( ) (., « ­ »), 36 , ­ , 43 , 21 ­ 26. , 36(!) , ­ , 63 , . , « » , ( , « ?» ), , 25 1000 . MORI (). 1995 ; 1997 . , , - . MORI , . . 26 . 21 «» ( ). (. 4). , , , , , (. 3)27. . T 4. , , 2000 . 1 2 : - z- - z- -0.004 -0.53 -0.001 -0.12 2 0.000 0.11 0.000 -0.29 0.081 1.93 0.074 1.75 -0.061 -1.29 -0.077 -1.62 0.353 3.21 0.210 1.88 -0.006 -0.93 -0.005 -0.89 -0.185 -2.06 -0.154 -1.70 0.050 0.48 0.073 0.69 0.051 5.50 0.047 4.97 ... ... 0.235 10.8 -R2 0.0431 0.0517 - . 10 500 10 428 Logit ( ). : : « » , , , , ( ). , , , ­ «» , , , ­ 28. 27 . 28 , , , - . - , Graham and Pettinato ( ). 22 (Graham and Pettinato 2001) , , ( , ) . ( ). . . , 75 , , 23 ­ . , , 58 , ­ 26. , 41 , , 42 ­ . , . , . 64 , , 21 ­ , 15 ­ . , 16 ; 21 , , 59 . , 1980- , , 80- ­ 90- ; , 1970- , - . ? , , (EQWLTH) . ( 1998 ) , , : ? , , ( )29. , , (53 ) 29 . 23 , . , , , ( 2). , . , . ­ . ( ) , , , , . , , . , , 30. 2. , , 1998 . 80 (%)75 70 65 60 - 55 50 45 40 R2 = 0.51 35 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 1998 . ($ ) : 2000 ; , . , ( 30 Graham and Pettinato (2000). 24 0,45 ), ( ) . , , , - , . , , , - ( 5). , , - , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , 31. , : , . , , , - . . ., ; ( ). , 31 , , . Graham (1994). 25 , (., ). , ( ) «» . ., 18 ( 40 ), 3 , . 90 , , , (Birsdall and Janes 1990; Angell and Graham). T 5. , , 2000 . 1 2 : - z- - z- -0.023 -3.28 -0.019 -2.54 2 0.000 2.50 0.000 1.97 0.571 3.68 0.434 2.60 -0.012 -2.20 -0.016 -2.65 0.022 0.58 0.040 0.98 0.048 1.12 0.080 1.75 0.016 0.21 0.034 0.40 0.125 1.37 0.098 0.99 a 0.054 0.82 0.010 0.14 / b ... ... 0.338 11.23 / c ... ... 0.015 0.56 -R2 0.0313 0.0378 - 14 799 12 974 a. , (.. 0,45 ) b. « ?» c. « ?» : . , 1980- . , 32. ( ) 1980- 1990- - , . 32 , . Grosh (1994) van de Walle and Nead (1995). 26 ( ) , ( ) 33. , , , , , , , , - . . , , , , . , . , . , , , , . , , . «Trabajar» . , , - , , , (Ravallion 1999). , , , . ( ) , . . , . , ; , , , . 6 ; , 33 . Tendler (2000). 27 . , , (., ), ( ), , : , . T 6. / / 1990 - 91 1996 - 97 1990 - 91 1996 - 97 17.7 17.9 62.2 65.1 6.0 12.0 25.8 44.2 19.0 19.8 59.5 59.1 13.0 14.1 60.8 65.9 8.1 14.3 29.7 38.2 -a 18.2 20.8 64.4 65.1 5.4 7.7 21.9 26.5 3.3 4.2 29.8 42.1 7.8 7.2 33.1 31.9 6.5 8.5 41.6 52.9 b 10.3 10.7 38.3 35.6 18.6 21.9 40.0 39.9 3.0 7.9 39.9 47.1 2.3 5.8 16.7 40.9 4.5 6.0 36.9 39.0 18.7 22.5 62.3 69.8 9.0 8.4 33.9 39.0 c 10.1 12.4 41.0 47.2 a. 1996-97 1996. - . b. 1990-91 1991. - , 1990- . c. . : ECLAC, Social Panorama of Latin America, 1998 (LC/G. 2050-P), Santiago, Chile, 1999. , , , , , , ( ). , 28 , , , , 1980- ( ), ; , 34. , ( ) . ., 1970- 1980- , , . 1990 . «» , - . ., 35. 1991 1995 . 8,5 ; , ( ). 1990 . : , 36; . 37. , , , , , ; 38. 34., ., Cowan and de Gregorio (2000), , Graham (1994) (1998). 35, , - , , . . Gauri (1999). 36Arrellano (2000) , , (, 1987 .). 37 . Boylan (1996). 38 James (1998). , , Birsdall, Graham, and Pettinato (2000). 29 , , , , ; ( 8 ) , . 100 000 , , 39. , , - -. , , ; , , , . - , . , , , 40. « » « » , , , , , , . , , , . , , , 39« , 21 2001 .». El Mercurio, 21 2001 ., Kirsten Sehnbruch, 2001 . 40 , . «» , 1990- , , . 30 - . (, , ) . , , , , ; , , . . , . ., , ­ (. 2). , , (. 7). , , , () . T 7. , , 2000 . . . 0.141 0.348 1187 0.211 0.408 1057 0.147 0.354 979 0.227 0.419 1183 - 0.290 0.454 987 0.216 0.412 1171 0.242 0.429 1160 0.259 0.439 987 0.294 0.456 975 0.322 0.467 994 0.309 0.462 1182 0.217 0.413 989 0.238 0.426 981 0.281 0.450 602 0.254 0.436 1031 0.250 0.433 1167 0.507 0.500 1142 0.259 0.438 17774 : , , « » ( «0») «» ( «1»). : . 31 , ( ) ( , ). 41. 2001 , . , , , 10 42. , , , ( ­ ) . , - - , . , . , 43. , () . , ( 8). ( , ) . . , ( ) , , , . , , . , . , () 41 , ; ; , , . , , . Mazza (1999). 42 , . , 7 . 43 Graham and Pettinato (2001). 32 , / , . , . , . T 8. , , , 2000 . . 0.617 0.394 914 0.656 0.343 955 0.677 0.381 829 0.709 0.333 1049 - 0.661 0.371 818 0.598 0.375 933 0.752 0.315 1084 0.545 0.375 768 0.685 0.352 878 0.643 0.372 877 0.561 0.355 979 0.720 0.344 799 0.612 0.362 895 0.725 0.348 564 0.738 0.310 944 0.546 0.367 569 0.732 0.355 1032 0.661 0.361 14 887 : , , « » ( «0»), « » ( «0,3»), «» ( «0,6») « » ( «1»). : . : , , () . , , 33 , «» , , , . , , ( ), ( , ) . , , , . , ­ , . . . ; , , (, , , ; ; , ), ( ) ( ) . , ( , - ) , , . ; . , - . . , , . , , , . . ( ) . . , ; , : 34 ; ; , . , , , - . . , ( ) . , , «Latinobarometro». , ; . «-»; . , . ., «Latinobarometro» , - . , , (, ., )44. , «Latinobarometro» , , . , , ( , ) . , , , , . , , ( ), . , (., ), 44 ( ) , , . , , . 35 ; 1997 . , , , ( , ) , . ( ), , . : ­ . ­ . , . , , , , , ( ) ( ). , «» , , , . , , , «» , . ( ) , . . «» : « »? , , ( ) ( , , ..) « ». ( ) « ». ( ) 45. , , , 45 . Birsdall, Graham, and Pettinato (2000), Pritchett, Suryahadi, and Suarto (2000). 36 ( ), , 46. «» : , . , (., ) ; , « » ( ) , . , - (., ). «» : ­ . , «» , , , «». , ( ), . «» : , . , , , «», , ; , , , . Corneo and Gruner (2000) (. ) , ( ) ( ), . ( ) , 46 Lipton (1998). 37 , , «», (., , ), , (., ). . «» : ? , ; . , ( ­ ), , - , . , « » , , ( ), ( ). , , . , , , , , . ., , 47. , «» ( , , - ). , . , , . , , , : ? , , , , 47 Graham (1994) Graham (1998); . , . 38 . , ( ) , . , . ( , ) . : , , . , ­ . ( ), - , , . , , . ; , ; , , () . , , , . , . , , , , ( ) ; (., ). , , - 39 ( ­ , ). , , , ( ), , , «» . , . , , - , ( , ). , , , , . , . 1996 , , (). , , , . . , : , . . , - ( , ). , , ; 1980- . , . . ., , ., , , , . 40 ( , , , ). , , . ( ) . , ; () . . ., , , , . ( ). «» , ( ) , . , , , , - . , , 49. ­ () «» . . , , - , . , , . , , . , , 49 , , , . 41 ( ). . , , ( ) . , , . , . , ( ). , 1997-98 . 50. , . , , . , . , , - . ., , , - , «» . , . , , , . , , , , 50., , Birsdall and Haggard (2000). 42 , . ? , . , ( , ) . «» « » , . , , , « », , , ( ) , 51. « » « »? , , « » « ». . ( ) : , / «». «» . , . 1996 . , , , ( ). , 51 ( - ) . 43 52. , ; , . . 1990- , ­ , (Filgueira and Moraes 1999). , - . , , . 1990- . , , . , (Graham, Grindle, Lora and Seddon 1999). , . , - . ., . , , . ( ) , - , 1,25 . , , , (.. 5 )53. , . , . 52 . Weaver (2000). 53 , , Graham (1998). 44 , , - . , ( , ) , , (., ). - () « »54. , . , , « »; . ( ) , , - , . CLAS , . CLAS (Comites Locales para la Administracion del Salud) ­ (), ; - . () , , . , , , ; , , - , . CLAS , , ; . CLAS , - , , : CLAS , , , ( 54 Graham, Grindel, Lora and Sedon (1999). 45 ) . , CLAS, , (, ) (Paredes-Solari 1995 and Taylor 1996). , , , - , . , , . 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