ISTHEREANEWVISION FOR MAGHREB ECONOMIC INTEGRATION? VOLUMEII:ANNEX (INTWO VOLUMES) 38359 v 2 A G H R E B M NOVEMBER 2006 SOCIALANDECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GROUP MIDDLE EASTANDNORTHAFRICA THE WORLD BANK IS THERE A NEW VISION FOR MAGHREB ECONOMIC INTEGRATION? (In Two Volumes) Volume II: Annex November 2006 Social and Economic Development Group Middle East and North Africa Region The World Bank Document of the World Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS TECHNICAL APPENDIX A. TRADE INDICES B. GRAVITY PANEL MODELS FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENT C. IMPACT OF MAGHREB RTA ON FDI D. IMPACT OF SERVICE POLICY REFORMS ON GROWTH, TRADE AND FDI E. GROWTH IMPACT OF REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS F. INVESTMENT CLIMATE AND SERVICE SECTOR REFORM PROGRESS INDICES FOR THE MAGHREB (EBRD METHODOLOGY) FOR THE PERIOD (1990-2004) STATISTICAL APPENDIX A. ANNEX TO CHAPTER 1 B. ANNEX TO CHAPTER 2 C. ANNEX TO CHAPTER 3 REFERENCES Vice President: Daniela Gressani Country Director: Theodore Ahlers Sector Director: Mustapha K. Nabli Sector Manager: Miria Pigato Task Team Leader: Paloma Anós Casero 2 TECHNICAL ANNEX A. TRADE INDICES1 1. Trade Intensity Index The trade intensity index is defined as the share of one country's exports going to a partner divided by the share of world exports going to the partner. Iijt =Xijt M / jt Xit M wt where Xijt is country i 's exports to country j in period t , Xit is i 's total exports in period t , M jt is j 's total imports in period t , and M wt is the sum of world imports in period t . If the trade intensity index (TII) value is above or below unity, the countries have greater or smaller bilateral trade flows than would be expected based on the two partners' share in world trade. For those trading partners that have TIIs greater than unity, their trade relationship can be defined as `intensive' (that is, the countries trade more than would be expected given the relative size of the market for imports). An analysis of the changes in TII over time can show whether two countries are experiencing an increased or decreased tendency to trade with one another. 2. Product Diversification Index Export diversification is held to be important for developing countries because many developing countries are often highly dependent on relatively few primary commodities for their export earnings. Unstable prices for these commodities may subject a developing country exporter to serious terms of trade shocks. Since the covariation in individual commodity prices is less than perfect, diversification into new primary export products is generally viewed as a positive development. The strongest positive effects are normally associated with diversification into manufactured goods, and its benefits include higher and more stable export earnings, job creation and learning effects, and the development of new skills and infrastructure that would facilitate the development of even newer export products. The product diversification index for country j is defined as: Dij = h ij-hi /2 Where hij is the share of commodity i in the total exports of country j and hi is the share of the commodity in world exports. This index would illustrate that a country with equal share in every 3-digit product (complete diversification) has more concentrated exports that another whose profile match the (concentrated) structure of world trade. 3. Product Concentration Index 1 The methodology for the computation of trade indices draws on Hoekman, et al (2003) and Yeats and Ng (2003). 3 A measure related to the product diversification index used by UNCTAD is the concentration index or Hirschman index which is calculated using the shares of all 3-digit products in a country's exports: The index for country j is defined as: H j = ( xi / X )2 Where xi is country j 's export of 3-digit product and X is country j 's total exports. The lower the index the less concentrated are a country's exports. 4. Market Concentration Index The market concentration index which measures the concentration of a country's exports bundle is defined as: X L = log logX i - i n n where X i is the total merchandise exports to country i , and n is the total number of markets. The higher the index, the higher the degree of concentration. If the same amount is exported to all markets, then L = 0 . 5. Trade Complementarity Index The trade complementarity index can provide useful information on prospects for intraregional trade in that it shows how well the structures of a country's imports and export match. It also has the attraction that its values for countries considering the formation of a regional trade arrangement can be compared with other that have formed or tried to form similar arrangements. The index of trade complementarity between countries k and j (Cij ) is defined as: Cij =100 - ( mik - xij / 2) Where xij is the share of good i in the global exports of country j and mik is the share of good i in all imports of country k . The index is zero when no goods exported by one country is imported by the other, and 100 when the export-import shares exactly match. 4 6. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index Measures of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) have been used to help assess a country's export potential. The RCA indicates whether a country is in the process of extending the products in which it has a trade potential, as opposed to situations in which the number of products that can be competitively exported is static. It can also provide useful information about potential trade prospects with new partners. Countries with similar RCA profiles, such as those in Africa, are unlikely to have high bilateral trade intensities unless intraindustry trade is involved. RCA measures, if estimated at high levels of product disaggregation, can focus attention on other nontraditional products that might be successfully exported. The RCA index is defined as: RCAij = (xij / Xtj)/(X jw / Xtw) , Where xij is the value of country i 's exports of j , and Xtj is the country's total exports while X jw is world exports of j and Xtw is total world exports. If the RCA value is less than unity (which indicates that the share of a particular product in a country's exports is less than the corresponding world trade share) implies that the country has a revealed comparative disadvantage in the product. Similarly, if the index exceeds unity, the country has a revealed comparative advantage in the item. Interpretation of RCA profiles should be read with care. The export specialization (ES) index is a slightly modified RCA index in which the denominator is usually measured by specific markets or partners. It provides product information on revealed specialization in the export sector of a country and is calculated as the ratio of the share of a product in a country's total exports to the share of this product in imports to specific markets or partners rather than its share in world exports. 7. Intra-Industry Trade (Grubel-Lloyd) Index Some analyses of factors influencing the success or failure of efforts to promote industrialization and growth conclude that a growing level of intraindustry trade (IIT) plays an important positive role. Intraindustry exchange produces extra gains from international trade over and above those associated with comparative advantage because it allows a country to take advantage of larger markets. By engaging IIT, a country can simultaneously reduce the number of similar products it produces while increasing the variety of goods available to domestic consumers. The IIT index ranges between zero and one, with larger values indicating a greater level of trade between firms in the same industry. Higher IIT ratios suggest that net gains from specialization in different products are being exploited and that the participating country is increasing its integration into the world economy. The intra-industry trade index (also known as the Grubel-Lloyd index) measures the magnitude of intra-industry flows in total manufacturing trade. The index is defined as: IIT =1- Xijk - Mijk / ( Xijk + Mijk ), 5 where Xijk represents the exports of products from industry i from country j to country k and Mijk represents the imports of products from industry i by country j from country k . The analysis is generally confined to manufactured goods, i.e. items classified in SITC groups 5 through 8 less nonferrous metals. 8. Export Demand Decomposition The influence of demand for a specific product can be measured by the change in the total (global) value of regional imports of the item. In calculating the influence of this factor, one assumes that a given country maintains its regional trade share for the commodity. Specifically, if D0, and Dt represent regional trade in product j, at time period 0 and t respectively, the j , j change in a specific country's exports attributed solely to demand Ed :,i Ed = s0, ×(Dt - D0, ) ,i j , j j where so is the share of country i in regional imports of product j (defined at the four-digit level , j of the Revision 2 SITC) from all countries in the base period 0 , and the summation is over all goods traded. Therefore, the above equation shows the change in country i's exports that would have occurred if only changes in demand took place. This index indicates how rapidly a country's recent exports would grow relative to regional or world trade if the country just maintained its current market for these products. This approach isolates the influence of change in regional or global demand for specific goods from any changes in the country's market shares or from diversification into new product lines. Aside from the influence of global demand changes, there are other factors that can influence changes in the level and growth of a country's exports. One of these is change in a country's market shares for the goods it exports. In some cases improvements in market shares can offset relatively sluggish demand for a product, whereas the erosion of shares can make a bad situation worse. The influence of market share changes (CD) on exports can be estimated using a procedure analogous to that used for quantification of demand effects. This competitive effects measure for country i is measured by the difference between the exports that would have occurred if the country's market share had not changed, and those regional exports that were in fact realized. This competitive factor ( Ec ) is: ,i Ec = (st -s0, )D0, ,i , j j j where st sj is the share of the country in regional imports of the product in period t, and the , j summation is over all goods imported. The index indicates the dollar value of export gains or losses associated with a country's market share changes. Summing over all traditional products will indicate whether the country's competitive position improved or worsened and what was the magnitude of the associated change in the value of exports. 6 B. GRAVITY PANEL MODELS FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENT Gravity Trade Model The reduced form gravity trade model adapted from Adams et. al. (2003) is: LnYijt = +i + + t + 1LnSGDPijt + 2LnRLFAijt + 3LnSimilarijt + 4LnDisij * j + 5LnRERijt + 6LnTARijt + 7Linij + 8Borij + 9Colij + 10Curij + 11Isi + 12Isj + 13locki + 14lockj + 153waveij + MRTAij + MRTAi-j + MRTAj-i + ijt ij - j -i where: Ln is natural logarithmic transformation; Yijt * is the value of exports from country i to country j in year t ; i is unobserved specific effects in exporting country i ; j is unobserved specific effects in importing country j ; t is unobserved specific effects in time period t ; SGDPijt is the sum of bilateral GDPs of i and j in year t ; RLFAijt is the absolute difference in GDP per capita of i and j in year t ; Similarijt is similarity in country size between i and j in year t in terms of aggregate GDP; Disij is distance between the two largest or capital cities of countries i and j ; RERijt is the bilateral real exchange rate between i and j in year t ; TARijt is an average tariff rate in importing country j on goods form country i in year t ; Linij is a measure of linguistic similarity between i and j ; Borij is a dummy that takes a value 1 if i and j share a land border and 0 otherwise; Colij is a dummy that takes a value 1 if i and j have colonial linkages and 0 otherwise; Curij is a dummy that takes a value 1 if i and j have the same currency and 0 otherwise; Isi is a dummy that takes a value 1 when i is an island nation and 0 otherwise; Locki is a dummy that takes a value 1 when i is a landlocked nation and 0 otherwise; 3waveij is an index capturing third wave or service provisions of PTA that takes the value of the non-merchandise MLI if i and j are members of a specific PTA, 0 otherwise; MRTA_ Bt is an index capturing trade provision of a PTA that takes a value of the merchandise MLI if both countries i and j are members of a PTA, 0 otherwise; 7 MRTA_ Et is an index capturing trade provision of a PTA that takes the value of the merchandise MLI when the exporting country, i belongs to a PTA, 0 otherwise; MRTA_ Mt is an index capturing trade provision of a PTA that takes the value of the merchandise MLI when importing country, j belongs to a PTA, 0 otherwise; ijt is an error term. Adams et. al (2003) created two sub-indices to quantify the breath of coverage of Preferential Trading Agreements in the areas of agriculture and industrial production ­ the merchandise Member Liberalization Index (MLI) and the non-merchandise MLI, covering `third wave' issues, including service provisions, plus general measures covering all trade. Services provision include provisions governing market access and national treatment in services and general measures cover national treatment provisions, investment rules, domestic competition policy, government procurement, intellectual property rights, and general provision covering the temporary and permanent movement of people. The scores for the indices are based on the text of the agreement and not on whether or how the provisions are used. A high index for non-merchandise trade indicates that a PTA is more liberal to members in its services trade, investment and related provisions. Using the methodological notes in Adams et. al (2003), a merchandise and non merchandise MLI was created for GAFTA. Other arrangements involving Maghreb countries took on a dummy value in the period where they were members. This only alters the relative magnitude of the MRTA coefficients and leaves its signs unaffected. In carry out the gravity trade regression all observations between 1980 and 2004 that had MENA countries either as exporters or imports were retained in addition to other bilateral country pairs which had at least 50 percent of exports values taking a non-zero value. This choice was made to reduce the size of the dataset which exceeded 700,000 variables in its original form. 8 Data Sources: Dependent variables. Bilateral export data between 1980 and 2004 was obtained from WITS database while FDI stock levels was obtained from OECD Statistics and printed issues of UNCTAD's World Investment Report (WIR). Stock levels for Tunisia was constructed using flow data from WIR in conjunction with an estimate of stock levels in 1990 by distributing the total inward FDI among source countries based on their shares of flow data. Explanatory variables were sourced from World Bank's World Development Indicators database (WDI). The remaining data were sourced from similar gravity model studies. The details are as follows: The GDP data measure gross domestic product at purchasing power parity (PPP). GDP data were sourced from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI 2005). GDP per capita was calculated by dividing GDP in PPP terms by population for each economy. Population data were sourced from the WDI 2005. Population is measured as the mid-year population and counts all residents of an economy regardless of legal status or citizenship. The primary source of the distance data, linguistic similarity, contiguity, colonial linkages was from CEPII2 (2004). Distance between the two largest cities in measured in kilometres and is the great circle distance or `as the crow flies'. The variable measures the degree of commonality in the languages is based on the fact that two countries share a common official language. The measure of colonization indicates that two countries had a colonial relationship. Data for currency links were sourced from Frankel and Rose (2000). A dummy variable with a value one when the two countries share a currency, and zero otherwise. The data for the island and landlocked variables were taken from Wikepidia and CEPII (2004) respectively. Two dummy variables were formed, one with a value one where an economy is an island and zero otherwise, the other with a value of one when the economy is landlocked and zero otherwise. Exchange rate data were sourced from WDI (2005). The exchange rate is measured as the period average exchange rate -- the number of local currency units that can be traded for one US dollar. A bilateral exchange rate (the value of a unit of the exporter's currency in terms of the importer's currency) was calculated by dividing the importer's $US exchange rate by the exporter's $US exchange rate. The tariff data were sourced from the WITS database. The variable is measured as the weighted average tariff rate -- total value divided by the number of tariff lines and weighted by trading partners. The Member Liberalisation Index (MLI) measures the extent of liberalisation within a PTA. The value of the MLI for a bilateral trade flow depends on whether the two economies are members of the same PTA. Following Adams et. al (2003), a variable was formed that allocates the score from the MLI where the two economies are members of the same PTA and in all other cases allocates a score of zero. When the two economies have more than one PTA in common, an a priori judgment was made as to which PTA was more likely to dictate the trading conditions between the two countries. 2Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales 9 Table B.1.1: Gravity Model of Trade, Dynamic Fixed Effects (1980-2004) (E (exporter is a member), M (importer is a member) and B (both are members). Variable name without tariff with tariff ln Sum of country pair GDP 2.31 (0.06) *** 0.30 (0.15) ** Similarity in country pair GDP 1.33 (0.03) *** 0.31 (0.08) *** Ln of absolute difference in per-capita GDPs of country pair -0.04 (0.00) *** -0.05 (0.01) *** Ln distance (km) -1.45 (0.01) *** -1.48 (0.01) *** Ln bilateral exchange rate 0.04 (0.00) *** 0.09 (0.01) *** Ln import tariffs 0.00 0.00 -0.25 (0.01) *** Common language 0.71 (0.02) *** 0.61 (0.03) *** Colonial -0.04 (0.04) 0.17 (0.06) *** Border 0.88 (0.04) *** 0.42 (0.08) *** Currency union 1.03 (0.09) *** 1.36 (0.18) *** Exporting country is an island 2.84 (0.23) *** -0.42 (0.72) Importing country is an island 0.51 (0.30) * -0.31 (1.04) Exporting country is landlocked 3.10 (0.19) *** -0.30 (0.41) Importing country is landlocked 0.94 (0.22) *** 4.34 (0.96) *** 3rd wave provision for all PTAs 0.14 (1.96) 15.46 (3.11) *** pactraE pactraM pactraB -3.75 (1.96) * -3.29 (2.82) anzcertaE -0.65 (0.40) * anzcertaM -0.58 (0.38) anzcertaB -3.20 (1.59) ** -11.65 (2.22) *** usa-israelE -1.76 (0.53) *** usa-israelM -0.67 (0.50) usa-israelB 16.64 (2.49) *** 3.10 (2.79) chile-mexicoE 0.54 (0.41) -0.49 (0.50) chile-mexicoM 0.43 (0.37) 1.15 (0.38) *** chile-mexicoB 0.09 (3.18) -6.46 (3.18) ** chile-colombiaE 0.52 (0.44) -1.52 (0.99) chile-colombiaM 1.87 (0.42) *** -1.83 (0.82) ** chile-colombiaB 0.28 (2.86) -4.90 (2.82) * new zealand -singaporeE -1.17 (0.24) *** -0.37 (0.27) new zealand -singaporeM -0.67 (0.23) *** -0.15 (0.32) new zealand -singaporeB -0.88 (2.28) -7.54 (3.10) ** ecE ecM ecB -1.05 (1.40) -2.96 (2.17) eftaE eftaM eftaB 11.04 (3.69) *** 10.42 (3.98) *** andeanE -2.82 (0.49) *** 0.69 (1.27) andeanM -3.48 (0.46) *** andeanB 2.39 (0.80) *** laiaE 1.80 (1.08) * laiaM -2.65 (1.05) ** laiaB 13.46 (0.76) *** 10.09 (1.11) *** spartecaE -0.26 (1.09) spartecaM 1.16 (1.11) spartecaB 9.39 (0.82) *** 10.20 (1.44) *** mercosurE 1.53 (0.35) *** 1.02 (0.74) mercosurM 1.74 (0.35) *** -5.84 (0.63) *** mercosurB 1.44 (1.53) -4.04 (1.65) ** 10 Table B.1.1: (continued) Variable name without tariff with tariff naftaE 0.12 (0.35) 0.51 (0.67) naftaM 0.40 (0.31) -1.53 (0.40) *** naftaB -14.24 (3.03) *** chile-mercosurE 0.12 (0.20) 0.48 (0.29) * chile-mercosurM -0.86 (0.20) *** -1.62 (0.23) *** chile-mercosurB -3.15 (0.84) *** -4.20 (0.83) *** aftaE 2.53 (0.28) *** 2.88 (0.63) *** aftaM 0.54 (0.28) * -2.07 (0.47) *** aftaB -5.54 (1.09) *** -12.17 (1.41) *** ec-polandE -0.76 (1.04) -1.67 (1.89) ec-polandM 8.69 (1.02) *** 5.16 (1.36) *** ec-polandB -5.84 (1.63) *** -15.74 (2.44) *** apecE -0.10 (0.04) *** 0.26 (0.09) *** apecM 0.42 (0.03) *** 0.01 (0.10) apecB -0.13 (0.06) ** -0.12 (0.06) ** comesaE 0.02 (0.04) -0.01 (0.08) comesaM 0.95 (0.04) *** 3.12 (0.60) *** comesaB 0.21 (1.96) -14.90 (3.11) *** gaftaE -0.77 (0.28) *** -0.14 (0.47) gaftaM -5.56 (0.28) *** -11.27 (0.64) *** gaftaB 13.73 (0.76) *** 9.55 (0.88) *** gccE 0.00 (0.11) 2.04 (0.34) *** gccM -1.15 (0.11) *** 3.80 (0.48) *** gccB 0.72 (0.14) *** 0.01 (0.27) usa_jordanE -0.25 (0.13) ** -0.39 (0.15) *** usa_jordanM -0.17 (0.11) 0.12 (0.12) usa_jordanB 2.39 (0.95) ** 2.15 (0.88) ** ec-egyptE ec-egyptM ec-egyptB 5.04 (1.22) *** -3.95 (2.09) * ec_tunisia 0.09 (0.10) 0.22 (0.17) ec_tunisiaM 0.13 (0.10) 0.52 (0.13) *** ec_tunisiaB 0.81 (0.19) *** 0.31 (0.24) ec_jordanE 0.63 (0.36) * -0.60 (0.42) ec_jordanM 0.24 (0.33) -5.71 (0.52) *** ec_jordanB 0.85 (0.30) *** 0.58 (0.36) * ec_moroccoE 0.09 (0.32) 0.21 (0.34) ec_moroccoM 0.33 (0.28) 0.57 (0.27) ** ec_moroccoB -0.78 (0.25) *** -0.49 (0.29) * ec_algeriaE -0.66 (0.38) * 1.16 (0.25) *** ec_algeriaM -2.12 (0.36) *** 8.77 (0.83) *** ec_algeriaB 0.58 (0.11) *** -0.19 (0.19) efta_moroccoE 0.39 (0.30) -0.18 (0.34) efta_moroccoM 0.41 (0.27) 0.28 (0.27) efta_moroccoB -0.87 (0.45) * -0.73 (0.46) efta_jordanE -0.38 (0.31) 0.85 (0.43) ** efta_jordanM 0.22 (0.28) 5.78 (0.52) *** efta_jordanB -1.68 (0.64) *** -1.86 (0.69) *** R-squared (adjusted) 0.69 0.65 Notes: 1. Dependent variable is Ln (1+exports). Unbalanced panel covering 1980 to 2004. 2. Fixed effects coefficients associated with exporting country, import country and years are not reported. 3. ***,**, * denotes significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level. 11 Gravity FDI Model The gravity FDI model uses a similar specification to the gravity trade model described earlier. The dependent variable is instead bilateral FDI stock in the host or importing country from the exporting country (source) between 1990 and 2002. FDI data was sourced from OECD STAT database and constructed from World Investment Reports published by UNCTAD. The results are used to predict FDI potential and contrasted them against actual stock levels in the Maghreb countries. Table B.1.2: Gravity Model of Investment, Dynamic Fixed Effects (1980-2004) Variable name ln Sum of country pair GDP 0.52 (0.32) * Similarity in country pair GDP 0.51 (0.17) *** Ln of absolute difference in per-capita GDPs of country pair -0.32 (0.03) *** Ln distance (km) -1.03 (0.05) *** Ln bilateral exchange rate 0.25 (0.02) *** Common language 0.84 (0.13) *** Colonial 0.41 (0.15) *** Border 0.11 (0.15) Currency union -4.42 (1.23) *** Exporting country is an island -10.35 (0.90) *** Importing country is an island -3.87 (0.67) *** Exporting country is landlocked -1.25 (0.94) Importing country is landlocked -0.68 (0.55) gaftaE 5.92 (3.43) * gaftaM -8.34 (1.72) *** gaftaB gccE -1.72 (0.62) *** gccM 1.01 (0.60) * gccB usa_jordanE -1.92 (0.16) *** usa_jordanM 0.79 (0.75) usa_jordanB ec-egyptE ec-egyptM ec-egyptB -5.80 (2.99) * ec_tunisia 0.23 (0.81) ec_tunisiaM 2.03 (0.42) *** ec_tunisiaB -0.09 (0.44) ec_jordanE 2.20 (0.67) *** ec_jordanM 0.84 (1.13) ec_jordanB 1.73 (0.96) * ec_moroccoE 4.51 (1.66) *** ec_moroccoM -1.24 (0.43) *** ec_moroccoB 1.34 (0.45) *** ec_algeriaE -8.64 (1.03) *** ec_algeriaM -3.55 (0.68) *** ec_algeriaB -1.24 (0.41) *** efta_moroccoE efta_moroccoM 2.79 (0.49) *** efta_moroccoB 0.85 (0.33) *** efta_jordanE -1.45 (0.22) *** efta_jordanM -2.94 (0.58) *** efta_jordanB -0.75 (0.40) ** R-squared (adjusted) 0.66 No of observations 23844 Notes: 1. Dependent variable is Ln (1+stock of outward investments). Unbalanced panel covering 1980 to 2004. 2. Fixed effects coefficients associated with exporting country, import country, years and PTA dummies for non-MENA countries are not reported. 3. Standard errors are corrected for heteroskedasticity. ***,**, * denotes significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level. 12 C. IMPACT OF MAGHREB RTA ON FDI This section tries to answer the following questions: would a bigger market size of a Maghreb RTA influence the FDI received by the three participating countries? Do progress on key policy areas (such as education and financial stability) matter for the net impact of FDI? To determine if the Maghreb countries would benefits in terms of FDI if a regional market is created, an empirical model is estimated based on the work by Jaumotte (2004) who focused on the experience of regional trade agreements (RTAs) involving only developing countries between 1980 and 1999. The dataset used for this work ranges extend the period observed to 2004 covering 80 countries3. The determinants of the econometric model include the following factors4: 1. Size of host market. In addition to including the size of the domestic market proxied by real GDP, the model includes an alternative measure of market size which takes the value of the regional market size for countries belonging to a RTA and the value of the domestic size for stand-alone countries. The regional market size is the sum of the domestic market size and of the market size of all countries sharing an RTA with the country considered. Real GDP data is from the World Bank's World Development Indicators, (WDI) 2004. 2. Agglomeration effects. There may be incentives to locate new FDI close to existing FDI due to linkages between projects, availability of support services or favorable national conditions signaled by the presence of other firms. This is captured using lagged value of the FDI stock which can also be interpreted as the rate at which the stock of FDI adjusts to its optimal level. Quality of infrastructure is another agglomeration variable which is proxied using the number of television sets per capita as reported in the WDI. This variable is found not to be statistically significant in Jaumotte's (2004) analysis which is also the case in the empirical work in this study. 3. Labor cost and quality. Some FDI in developing countries are motivated by low labor cost while others are drawn by the quality of labor. The model includes the average schooling years for the population over the age of 15 from Barro and Lee (2000) as a proxy for labor quality and to some extent as an inverse proxy for labor cost. 4. Business/investment climate. The climate for business/investment affects the cost of doing business in a foreign country. This work follows Jaumotte (2004) in using the financial risk index constructed by the Political Risk Services Group. It measures the current account and foreign debt position, net liquidity and exchange rate stability. 5. Openness. Trade openness can affect FDI in a variety of ways. Lower import barriers can reduce tariff-jumping FDI but may increase vertical FDI by facilitating the imports of inputs and machinery. Lower export barriers attract vertical FDi by facilitating the re-exports of processed goods and horizontal FDI by expanding the market size. Openness is measured using the export to GDP ratio and corrected for population and country size, with data taken from the WDI. 6. Locational advantage. In addition to the above variables, measures that quantify the gap between the domestic and RTA education levels financial stability and infrastructure are also included. These measures aim at assessing the locational advantage of a country relative to other countries which it shares an RTA with. The higher the education level, financial 3See annex for the RTA's covered in this work. 4For a more detailed discussion of the model including the data source, please refer to Jaumotte (2004). 13 stability and infrastructure quality in a country compared to other partner countries which it shares an RTA, the higher its locational advantage for FDI within the RTA. In its most complete form the empirical model takes the following form: ln FDIi ,t+1= lnFDIit +1lnYit ln REGYit + 1gYit + 2REGgY + 2 ,it +1lneducit +2 lnGAPeducit +1ln finit +2 lnGAPfinit +1lntvit +2 lnGAPtvit +res(X /GDP)it + i +t+1 +i ,t+1 Where FDI denotes the stock of FDI (in 2000 US dollars) in country i, Y denotes real GDP (in 2000 US dollars), REGY denotes market size extended to include RTA market size for countries belonging to a RTA, gy denotes real GDP growth, REGgy denotes the average real growth rate in an RTA to which the country belongs, educ denotes the average years of education of people over 15, fin is the financial risk index of the Political Risk Services Group, tv is the number of television per-capita, res(X /GDP) is the measure of trade openness, the prefix GAP denotes the ratio between the domestic value of the variable and the average value for all countries sharing an RTA which country i , denotes the country's fixed effects and the time effect. In order to minimize endogeneity concerns and account for the slow adjustment of the FDI stock, the model uses lagged values of the explanatory variables. Real GDP growth for a country and the RTA's average, refers to growth between t -1 and t . The sample covers 80 developing countries during the period 1980-2004. In order to focus on the medium-term, the time interval consider in five years and the sample period is divided into 5 sub- periods, 1980-84, 1985-89, 1990-94, 1995-1999 and 2000-2004. The regression relates the end- of-period FDI stock (e.g. 1985) to the beginning of period values of the explanatory variables (e.g. 1980). Table B.1.3: Regional Model of the level of FDI stock Std. Dependent variables : log (FDI+1) Coefficients Errror log FDI 0.40 (0.02) *** log Y 0.03 (0.07) log REGY 0.09 (0.03) *** gy 0.53 (0.48) REG gy 1.40 (0.78) * log (educ) 0.02 (0.15) log (GAPeduc) 0.49 (0.22) ** log (finance) 0.19 (0.11) * log (GAPfin) -0.04 (0.14) residual (Exports/GDP) 0.15 (0.04) *** year 1985 0.25 (0.05) *** year 1990 0.58 (0.05) *** year 1995 0.91 (0.07) *** year 2000 0.94 (0.08) *** Observations 332 Number of countries 80 Note: 1. Regression utilized a feasible GLS with correction for panel-heteroskedasticity. 2. ***, ** and * denotes significance at 1%,5% and 10% respectively. 3. Regression include country fixed effects and log(tv) and log GAPtv. 14 Table B.1.5 provides for each country in the Maghreb, estimates of the growth in FDI stock that would result from the creation of a regional market. The simulation uses estimated elasticities from the empirical model in Table B.1.4 and is based on 2004 data. The increase in market size due to a regional trade agreement would lead to an estimated increase in each country's FDI stock varying from 6 percent in Algeria to 11 percent in Morocco and 16 percent in Tunisia. In Morocco, the total FDI gains suffers from its population's lower education level relative to the region's, which highlights the value of further improvement in its educational attainment. These results should be interpreted with caution. The empirical FDI model, although useful to estimate correlations on a broad sample of observations may not be adequate to forecast FDI for individual countries. Other variables such as relative wage costs, better proxy for infrastructure and other liberalization aspects would help refine the projections. In addition, the education level in Morocco had to be projected from previous data. Nonetheless this exercise illustrates the need for member countries in an RTA to align domestic business conditions with the region's best performer in order to secure their share of the FDI benefits. Hence, the creation of a regional market may encourage competition between the partner countries. Table B.1.4: Actual and Predicted FDI stock to GDP (in percent) for Maghreb Countries Actual Predicted FDI/GDP FDI/GDP Algeria 1985 3.9 3.8 1990 3.9 4.3 1995 4.1 5.6 2000 7.3 6.8 2004 11.4 8.6 Average 6.1 5.8 Morocco 1985 18.3 15.8 1990 16.8 16.5 1995 23.4 24.2 2000 28.2 32.2 Average 21.7 22.2 Tunisia 1985 55.5 45.6 1990 72.2 55.3 1995 80.3 75.6 2000 64.3 96.7 2004 77.8 87.4 Average 70.0 72.1 Note: Predictions based on regression in Table B.1.3. 15 Table B.1.5: Growth in FDI stock to GDP (%) implied by creation of a Maghreb Regional Market Market Relative Total Effect Size Education Effect Effect Algeria 13.6 6.1 7.1 Morocco -2.4 10.5 -11.7 Tunisia 19.9 15.8 3.6 Note: Predictions based on FDI stock regression in Table B.1.3. The simulation of a regional market is based on data for 2000. List of South-South Regional Trade Agreements5 Latin America Central American Common Market (CACM) Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. The Andean Pact Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru (since 97), and Venezuela. (Free trade zone since 1993) Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) since 1981 Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Suriname (since 1995) and Trinidad and Tobago. Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) ­ since 1991 Argentina, Bolivia (since 1996), Brazil, Chile (since 1996), Paraguay and Uruguay. Group of Three (G3) ­ since 1995 Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. Asia Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Brunei, Cambodia (since 1999), Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic (since 1997), Myanmar (since 1997), Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam (since 1995). Middle East and North Africa The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ­ since 1981 Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Sub-Saharan Africa 5Information on RTAs taken from Jaumotte (2004) and updated. Unless mentioned otherwise, the RTAs have been in effect during the entire period covered in this report. (1980-2004) 16 Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS) Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo. (Mauritania left in 2002). Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA) Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau (since 1997), Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. Communauté Economique et Monétaire d'Afrique Centrale (CEMAC) Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Angola, Burundi, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Namibia, Rwanda, Seycelles, Sudan, Swaziland , Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. (common market since 1994) Southern African Development Community (SADC) Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo (1992), Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius (since 1995), Mozambique, Namibia (1992), Seychelles (1992), South Africa (since 1994), Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Swaziland. Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland. Cross Border Initiative (CBI) ­ since 1993 Burundi, Comoros, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 17 List of Sample Economies used in FDI Regression6 Asia Bangladesh Sierra Leone* China South Africa* Hong Kong Sudan* India Tanzania* Indonesia* Togo* Korea Uganda* Malaysia* Zaire Myanmar Zambia* Pakistan Zimbabwe* Papua New Guinea Phillippines* Europe Singapore* Bulgaria Sri Lanka Hungary Thailand* Poland Romania Middle East and North Africa Western Hemisphere Algeria Bahrain* Argentina* Cyprus Bolivia* Egypt Brazil* Iran Chile* Israel Colombia* Jordan Costa Rica* Kuwait* Dominicatn Republic Morocco Ecuador* Syria El Salvador* Tunisia Gautemala* Turkey Haiti Honduras* Sub-Saharan Africa Jamaica* Mexico* Bostwana* Nicaragua* Cameroon* Panama*7 Congo* Paraguay* Ghana* Peru* Kenya* Trinidad and Tobago* Liberia* Uruguay* Malawi* Venezuela* Mali Mozambique* Niger* Senegal* 6* denotes countries that belong to a South-South RTA in 1995. 7Panama is not formally a member but has limited preferential agreements with individual members of the CACM. 18 D. IMPACT OF SERVICE POLICY REFORMS ON GROWTH, TRADE AND FDI This section uses the service reform indicators constructed for Maghreb countries based on the EBRD methodology together with 24 transitional countries in Eastern Europe between 1990 and 2004 to examine the relationship between service sector reforms and FDI stock levels, merchandise exports as well as growth performance. The empirical specification builds on work done by Eschenbach and Hoeckmann (2005). The EBRD indicators are summarized in the following section and the variables and countries examined are listed in Table B.1.6. The results for the FDI stock regression using a fixed effect panel structure with interactive dummies for the Maghreb, South-East Europe is found in Table B.1.7 and the coefficients relevant to service reforms impact is summarized in Table B.1.9. A unit increase in the infrastructure, financial service sector and investment climate index respectively, raise on average, the stock of FDI to GDP for the Maghreb by 8.8, 9.2 and 8.5 percentage points respectively. This is lower compared to other transitional countries for each respective index as shown in Table B.1.9. The relationship between merchandise exports (in constant 2000 USD) and service reforms is also examined using a similar specification as the previous FDI stock estimation with the additional inclusion of an economic risk indicator available from the ICRG group. The results are summarized in Table B.1.10. On average, a unit increase in the infrastructure, financial service sector and investment climate index is expected to raised real exports by 0.11 percent annually. Turning to the impact of service reforms in the Maghreb on real per-capita GDP, the growth regression relates per-capita GDP growth to change in the ratio of investment to GDP, inflation and each reform indicator in turn ­ namely, finance, infrastructure and investment climate and their interactions with Maghreb, SEE and CEE groupings. The results are shown in Table B.1.8 and summarize in Table B.11. A one unit point increase in infrastructure, financial sector and investment climate is associated with an increase in per-capita growth rate of 2 percent, holding inflation and the change in investment to GDP ratio constant. It is interesting to note that the impact is lower compared to the outcomes in other Eastern European countries which appear to gain the most from the reform progress. 19 The EBRD Services Reform Indices The index ranges from 1(little progress) to 4.3 (most advanced implementation of reform agenda) and has been compiled on an annual basis for the 1990-2004 period. 1. Finance = average of the following two banking and non-banking reform indicators : · Banking and interest rate liberalization: A 4.3 means full convergence of banking laws and regulations with BIS standards, provision of full set of competitive banking services. · Securities markets and non-bank financial institutions: 4.3 means full convergence of securities laws and regulations with IOSCO standards, fully developed non-bank intermediation. 2. Infrastructure = average of the following five infrastructure reform indicators: · Electric power: 4.3 means Tariffs cost-reflective and provide adequate incentive for efficiency improvements. Large-scale private sector involvement in the unbundled and well-regulated sector. Fully liberalized sector with well-functioning arrangements for network access and full competition in generation. · Railways: 4.3 means separation of infrastructure from operations and freight from passenger operations. Full divestment and transfer of asset ownership implemented or planned, including infrastructure and rolling stock. Rail regulator established and access pricing implemented. · Roads: 4.3 means fully decentralized road administration. Commercialized road maintenance operations competitively awarded to private companies. Road user charges reflect the full costs of road use and associated factors, such as congestion, accidents and pollution. Widespread private sector participation in all aspects of road provision. Full public consultation on new road projects. · Telecommunications: 4.3 means effective regulation through and independent entity. Coherent regulatory and institutional framework to deal with tariffs, interconnection rules, licensing, concession fees and spectrum allocation. Consumer ombudsman function. · Water and waste water: 4.3 means water utilities fully decentralized and commercialized. Fully autonomous regulator exists with complete authority to review and enforce tariff levels and quality standards. Widespread private sector participation via service/management/lease contracts. High powered incentives, full concessions and/or divestiture of water and waste-water services in major urban areas. 3. Service = average of Infrastructure and Finance (used in Table 5 as an instrument) 4. Invclim = Investment climate measure, the average six EBRD reform indicators: · Large-scale privatization: 4.3 means standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: more than 75 per cent of enterprise assets in private ownership and significant progress on corporate governance of these enterprises · Small-scale privatization: 4.3 means standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: no state ownership of small enterprises; effective tradability of land. · Governance and enterprise restructuring: 4.3 means standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: effective corporate control exercised through domestic financial institutions and markets, fostering market-driven restructuring. · Price liberalization: 4.3 means standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: complete price liberalization with no price control outside housing, transport and natural monopolies. · Trade and foreign exchange system: 4.3 means standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: removal of most tariff barriers; membership in WTO. · Competition policy: 4.3 means standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: effective enforcement of competition; unrestricted entry to most markets. Source: EBRD Transition Report, 2004. 20 Table B.1.6: Documentation of data used in panel analysis for service reforms Variable Growth Investment/GDP Chg Investment/GDP Inflation Crisis Definition Per-capita GDP Gross fixed capital Change in Consumer price Dummy for growth formation in % of investment/GDP ratio inflation financial GDP crisis/armed conflict Source World Bank WDI IMF WEO IMF WEO IMF WEO n.a. Variable FDI/GDP Finance Infrastructure Invclim Service Definition Stock of FDI as % Average of EBRD Average of EBRD Average of EBRD Average of of GDP reform indices on reform indices on reform indices on Invclim and banking and non- infrastructure (telecom, privatization and infrastructure, see banking financial rail, road, water, liberalization, see Annex 1 for sector, see Annex X power) see Annex X Annex 1 for details for details. for details. details. Source UNCTAD EBRD Transition EBRD Transition EBRD Transition Report Report Report EBRD Transition Report Sample Albania Czech Republic Moldova Romania Uzbekistan countries Armenia Estonia Kyrgyz Republic Russia Morocco Azerbaijan Georgia Latvia Slovak Republic Tunisia Belarus Hungary Lithuania Slovenia Algeria Bulgaria Kazakhstan Macedonia Tajikistan Croatia Kyrgyz Republic Poland Ukraine Table B.1.7: Fixed Effects Panel Estimates of FDI stock to GDP (%) on service sector reforms, 1990- 2004 Model No. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Independent variables infrastructure reform index 17.37 19.13 (0.99) *** (3.27) *** MGB*infrastructure index -10.30 (3.27) *** SEE*infrastructure index -6.58 (2.10) *** finance reform index 17.38 18.35 (1.11) *** (1.18) *** MGB*finance -9.14 (4.16) *** SEE*finance -4.777 (2.62) *** investment climate index 14.64 15.02 (1.02) *** (1.07) *** MGB*investment climate index -6.49 (3.75) * SEE*investment climate index -2.09 (2.50) R squared 0.51 0.52 0.45 0.45 0.41 0.41 No. of observations 370 370 370 370 370 370 Note: standard errors in bracket. Asterisks denotes significance at 10*, 5** and 1*** percent levels. R squares are for within regressions. Sample includes 27 countries. MGB= Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia: SEE= Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Serbia & Montenegro 21 Table B.1.8: Fixed Effects Panel Estimates of per-capita GDP growth (%) and service sector policies, 1990-2004 Model No. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Independent variables Change in Investment/GDP 0.371 0.352 0.424 0.384 0.286 0.269 (0.06) *** (0.06) *** (0.07) *** (0.06) *** (0.06) *** (0.06) *** Inflation -0.002 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 (0.00) *** (0.00) *** (0.00) *** (0.00) *** (0.00) *** (0.00) ** finance reform index 8.024 11.083 (0.65) *** (0.89) *** MGB*finance -9.08752 (2.37) *** SEE*finance -4.61539 (1.49) *** CEE*finance -6.3899 (1.69) *** infrastructure reform index 6.184 11.042 (0.65) *** (0.98) *** MGB*infrastructure index -8.964 (2.14) *** SEE*infrastructure index -7.257 (1.47) *** CEE*infrastructure index -8.150 (1.60) *** investment climate index 8.199 9.663 (0.54) *** (0.64) *** MGB*investment climate index -7.607 (1.90) *** SEE*investment climate index -2.350 (1.29) * CEE*investment climate index -3.800 (1.73) ** R squared 0.46 0.50 0.39 0.46 0.54 0.57 No. of observations 370 370 370 370 370 370 Note: standard errors in bracket. Asterisks denotes significance at 10*, 5** and 1*** percent levels. R squares are for within regressions. Sample includes 27 countries. MGB= Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia; SEE= Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Serbia & Montenegro; CEE = Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republic, Slovenia: 22 Table B.1.9: Impact of Unit Increase in Reform Index on Stock of FDI to GDP (%), 1990-2004 Infrastructure financial investment services climate Maghreb (MGB) 8.83 9.21 8.53 South-East Europe (SEE) 12.55 13.57 12.93 Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Central-East Europe (CEE) 19.13 18.35 15.02 Average 17.37 17.38 14.64 Source: Derived from FDI regression in Table X. Note: SEE==Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Serbia & Montenegro: CEE=Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republic, Slovenia: FSU=Estonia, Latvia and Luthuania, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Krygstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. Table B.1.10: Impact of Unit Increase in Reform Index on Real Export Growth (%), 1990-2004 Dependent variable: log export value (constant 2000 USD) Coeffici Std. Error Finance 0.112 (0.05) ** Infrastructure 0.111 (0.05) ** Investment Climate 0.109 (0.06) * Note: Results are derived from separate regression containing lagged per-capita real GDP, a ICRG economic risk index and one service reform index. ** denotes significance at the 5% level and * is at the 10% level. Table B.1.11: Impact of Unit Increase in Service Reform Index on Annual Per-Capita Real GDP Growth (%), 1990-2004 financial investment Infrastructure services climate Maghreb (MGB) 2.08 2.20 2.06 South-East Europe (SEE) 3.77 5.84 7.35 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 2.90 4.00 5.87 Former Soviet Union (FSU) 11.04 11.08 9.66 Source: Derived from growth regression in Table X. Note: SEE==Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Serbia & Montenegro: CEE=Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republic, Slovenia: FSU=Estonia, Latvia and Luthuania, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Krygstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. 23 E. Growth Impact of Regional Trade Agreements Regional integration may have positive growth effects in the presence of economies of scale. An earlier section examines the market-size impact of RTA membership on foreign direct investment. In this section, the effect of integration on per-capita growth is examined. Regional integration is measured by inclusion of an RTA variable following Matias Berhelon (2004), that not only considers whether a group of countries has an RTA, but also captures the extent of the world market that is integration into domestic markets once the agreement takes place. The RTA variable is the sum of the share of the partner countries GDP to world GDP. The basic estimation strategy is through a scaled-down panel growth regression consisting of 94 countries between 1980 and 2004. Five year period averages are used spanning 1980 to 1984, 1985 to 1989, 1990 to 1994, 1995 to 1999 and 2004 to 2004. The regional agreements incorporated in the RTA variable covers bilateral agreements (such as US-Israel), country- association agreements (e.g. EU-Tunisia) and association agreements (eg. NAFTA, ASEAN, GCC). Per-capita GDP growth is measured using constant 2000 USD8. The control variables include initial GDP per capita, the ratio of government consumption to GDP, the investment rate, foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP, human capital, the share of manufactured exports in total exports, the ratio of total trade to GDP9 and an index of financial risk and a measure of investment climate sourced from the ICRG. The results are shown in Table X. The estimates suggest that joining an agreement with countries with a share of world GDP of 1 percent might increase the per-capita growth rate by 0.028 percentage points. The implication of this result is that countries or regions would gain more by signing agreements with larger partners. As of 2004, per-capita growth (in constant US$ terms) for Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia was 0.72, 3.6 and 4.9 percent respectively. Forming a Maghreb regional arrangement has a limited impact on the growth rates of the respective countries given the small size of the region's market. A more promising scenario considers the formation of a Maghreb union and its entrance into an RTA with the US or EU. This would generate additional per-capita growth for members of the Maghreb Union close to one percentage point for an agreement with the USA and 0.7 percentage point for an arrangement with the EU. 8The growth impact of an RTA is similar when per-capita growth is measured using PPP prices. 9Additional controls variables that were initially included but later discarded due to the lack of statistically significant arising from limited variation across time in a fixed-effect specification were trading partner's growth and bordering countries share of world GDP. 24 Table B.1.12: Country Fixed Effects Growth Regression, 1980-2004 (5-year averages) Dependent variable: per-capita GDP growth Log Initial per-capita GDP -6.971 *** Government consumption to GDP (%) -0.067 * Investment to GDP (%) 0.102 *** Foreign Direct Investment to GDP (%) 0.053 Manufacturing exports to Merchandise exports (%) 0.001 Human capital (average year of schooling for pop>15age) 0.110 Trade to GDP (%) 0.029 *** Financial risk index 0.049 ** Investment Climate index 0.341 *** Absolute RTA 0.028 *** Number of country groups 94 R squared (within) 0.51 Note: period dummies are not shown. *** denotes significance at 1% level, ** at 5% and * at 10%. Impact on joining Regional Trade Agreements on Exports Table B.1.13: Fixed Effects Panel Estimates of (log) real export value on RTA market size Dependent variable: log export value (constant 2000 USD) Initial per-capita Real GDP 0.813 (0.09) *** FDI inflows to GDP 0.014 (0.01) ** exchange rate risk 0.042 (0.01) *** inflation 0.000 (0.00) * investment climate index 0.022 (0.01) ** absolute RTA 0.004 (0.00) *** R-square (within) 0.77 Number of observations/groups 387/112 Note: standard errors are in brackets. *** denotes significances at 1% level, ** at 5% and 25 F. Investment Climate and Service Sector Reform Progress Indices for the Maghreb (EBRD methodology) for the period 1990-200410 10The authors are grateful to Sami Stouli for his contributions to the Maghreb database of policy reform indicators 26 EBRD: Infrastructure Indices, 1990-2004 Electric Power Index, 1990-2004 1 Power sector operates as government department with few commercial freedoms or pressures. Average prices well below costs, with extensive cross-subsidies. Monolithic structure, with no separation of different parts of the business. 2 Power company distanced from government, but there is still political interference. Some attempt to harden budget constraints, but effective tariffs are low. Weak management incentives for efficient performance. Little institutional reform and minimal, if any, private sector involvement. 3 Law passed providing for full-scale restructuring of industry, including vertical unbundling through account separation and set-up of regulator. Some tariff reform and improvements in revenue collection. Some private sector involvement. 4 Separation of generation, transmission and distribution. Independent regulator set up. Rules for cost-reflective tariff-setting formulated and implemented. Substantial private sector involvement in distribution and/or generation. Some degree of liberalisation. 4+ Tariffs cost-reflective and provide adequate incentives for efficiency improvements. Large-scale private sector involvement in the unbundled and well-regulated sector. Fully liberalised sector with well-functioning arrangements for network access and full competition in generation. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Sonelgaz is the state-owned monopoly over distribution, generation and distribution. No private sector involvement. Monolithic structure. 1 n/a 1991 · Sonelgaz becomes a public corporation of commercial and industrial nature. (executive decree n°91-475, December 14th, 1991). 1 n/a 1999 · Little private sector involvement (in generation) : As part of Algeria's first independent power project (IPP), the state oil company, Sonatrach, has awarded GE 2 1 to 2 Nuovo Pignone, a $107m contract for the construction of a 300-mw gas turbine power plant in the Hassi Berkine area. 2001 · Some private sector involvement (in generation). The government has opened the sector to private investment and there are plans for the construction of new, 2+ 2 to 2+ privately financed, gas-fired power generation facilities in Skikda and Arzew. · In January 2002 parliament passed an electricity and gas law, which ends the monopoly of the state firm, Sonelgaz, over the domestic power and gas markets. The 2002 law has cleared the way for liberalisation of the sector over the next three years, through the following actions: 3 2+ to 3 · opening electricity generation to full private competition. A new regulatory body, to be known as the Commission for Regulating Electricity and Gas (CREG), will act as the commissioning authority. · The creation of two new subsidiaries of Sonelgaz, one for the transmission of electricity and one for gas. In early June the government announced that Sonelgaz's subsidiaries will be opened up to private investors, including foreigners. · the creation of a system operator, with the job of ensuring that supply and demand are in balance. This will be a private firm with no interest in power generation; · the creation of a new market operator, whose main role will be to match the offers from the generators with bids by the suppliers, traders, retailers etc; · the gradual opening of the retail market to private competition. The law provides for a 30% opening of the market within three years; energy users consuming above a fixed amount will be able to choose their own supplier. 3 n/a 2004 · Subsidies have not been adjusted - In June 2004, CEO of Sonelgraz states that the electricity market is not to be opened to full-scale competition due to subsidies that exisits in the pricing of power in the domestic market. Since the passage of the law in 2002, the government has not adjusted the subsidy system. Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Le secteur de l'électricité en Algérie, Actualisation au 11 août 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; EIU Country Profiles. 27 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · The Office national de l'électricité (ONE) is the state-owned operator. It was under the administrative supervision of the Ministère de l'Energie et des Mines and 1 n/a the control of the Ministère des Finances et de la Privatization. 1994 · Separation of generation - Since 1994, the ONE no longer has monopoly over generation but retains control over distribution and transmission. 2 1 to 2 1995 · Private sector involvement in generation - A BOT (build-operate-transfer) is awarded to to a French consortium, led by Electricité de France for a 50-mw wind- powered generating station at Tetouan. Power will be sold to the state-owned Office national de l'électricité (ONE) under a long-term contract. 2 n/a · Raising of tariffs to reflect cost - electric prices were raised in 1996 with large users facing an increase of over 25% for peak use, while small consumers were given a 5% rebate. · Further Private sector involvement in generation- In February 1996 the Swiss-Swedish-US consortium, ABB-CMS Power, was awarded the contract to build two 2+ 2 to 2+ 1996 new 330-mw units at the Jorf Lasfar station and to take over management of the existing units. The ONE will retain ownership of the installations built for Jorf Lasfar I-IV, with the operator being granted a 25-year management contract. 1997 · Private Sector in distribution ­ Casablanca granted a concession for 30 year distribution of power and water to Lydec (35%), Électricité de France (18%) and the 3- 2+ to 3- spanish Endesa (18%) and AGBAR (5%). 1998 · A US$300m 470-mw combined-cycle unit is being built at Tahaddart near Tangier, on a BOT basis by French and Spanish power companies, with ONE retaining a controlling interest. 3- n/a 2003 · In 2003 ONE selected the local Compagnie Marocaine des Hydrocarbures (CMH) and Apex-BP Solar, a subsidiary of BP France, to install a new solar power system in Chichaoua province. In addition to its obligation for supply and installation of solar panels, BP Solar Maroc has also undertaken to manage the system 3- n/a and bill consumers for the first ten years of operation. 2004 · No law providing for full-scale restructuring of the industry - Currently, the main power electricity producer is a private one (JLEC, 60.7% of national production). 3- n/a The distribution is still provided by the ONE in 7 out of 11 local authorities, but the main ones have been privatized (Casablanca, Rabat, Tétouan, Tanger). Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Les investissements des principaux offices au Maroc, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; Fiche de synthèse, Production et distribution d'électricité au Maroc, Actualisation au 28 juin 2005, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; EIU Country reports. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · The national operator is "Société Tunisienne de l'Electricité et du Gaz", STEG. 1 1996 · Separation of power generation ­ STEG losses its monopoly on power generation. The government invites international contractors to build a combined plant with 2 1 to 2 a capacity of 300-500mw on a BOT basis. STEG retains its monopoly on pricing and distribution. As of 1996, some electricity is privately produced and some imported from Algeria. 1997 · Private sector involvement in generation -A 20 year BOT for a 470 mw combined cycle plant at Radès was awarded to an international consortium. 2 n/a 2002 · Further private sector involvement in generation - Tunisia's biggest IPP in Carthage which produces 20% of the country's electricity enter service after 2+ 2 to 2+ construction delays. 2+ n/a 2004 · No law providing for full-scale restructuring of the industry. Source: Fiche de synthèse, L'électricité en Tunisie, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; EIU Country Profiles. 28 Water Index, 1990-2004 1 Minimal degree of decentralisation; no commercialisation. Services operated as vertically integrated natural monopolies by a government ministry or municipal departments. No financial autonomy and/or management capacity at municipal level. Low tariffs, low cash collection rates and high cross-subsidies. 2 Moderate degree of decentralisation; initial steps towards commercialisation. Services provided by municipally owned companies. Partial cost recovery through tariffs, and initial steps to reduce cross- subsidies. General public guidelines exist regarding tariff-setting and service quality but both under ministerial control. Some private sector participation through service or management contacts, or competition to provide ancillary services. 3 Fair degree of decentralisation and commercialisation. Water utilities operate with managerial and accounting independence from municipalities, using international accounting standards and management information systems. Operating costs recovered through tariffs, with a minimum level of cross-subsidies. More detailed rules drawn up in contract documents, specifying tariff review formulae and performance standards. Private sector participation through the full concession of a major service in at least one city. 4 Large degree of decentralisation and commercialisation. Water utilities managerially independent, with cash flows ­ net of municipal budget transfers ­ that ensure financial viability. No cross- subsidies. Semi-autonomous regulatory agency has power to advise and enforce tariffs and service quality. Substantial private sector participation through build-operator-transfer concessions, management contacts or asset sales in several cities. 4+ Water utilities fully decentralised and commercialised. Fully autonomous regulator exists with complete authority to review and enforce tariff levels and quality standards. Widespread private sector participation via service/ management/lease contracts. High-powered incentives, full concessions and/or divestiture of water and waste-water services in major urban areas. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Algeria has many institutions in charge of each task relative to water: -Les Agences de Bassins Hydrographiques (basin agencies) ; L'Agence Nationale des 1 n/a Ressources Hydrauliques ; L'Algérienne Des Eaux ; L'Office National de l'Assainissement ; Les Offices des Périmètres d'Irrigation. Basin agencies are in charge of the different geographical areas. But they are still under the government authority. 1996 · Concession allowed by law -Law n°96-13 of June 15th 1996 through articles 20 and 21 allowed authorities to give concessions. 1+ 1 to 1+ 2003 · Private Sector participation through BOT. Technical offers from four international groups were opened in March 2003 for a US$200m-250m contract to build a 2- 1+ to 2- desalination plant in Hamma, a suburb of Algiers. The Algerian Energy Company (AEC)--owned equally by Sonatrach, the state energy company, and Sonelgaz, the state power utility--is handling the tender. The winning group will form a joint venture with AEC and the offtaker, Algerienne des Eaux, to build, finance and operate the plant. A similar commercial structure has been adopted for two other power and water schemes, at the eastern port city of Skikda and the western oil and gas terminal of Arzew. 2004 · Increases in water tariffs in December 2004. And initial steps to reduce cross-subsidies. 2- n/a Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Le secteur de l'eau en Algérie, actualisation janvier 2005, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; UNDP, RAPPORT SOUS REGIONAL SUR LA MISE EN VALEUR DES RESSOURCES EN EAU EN AFRIQUE DU NORD, Mokhtar BZIOUI, Mars 2005. http://www.pnud.org.ma/pdf/sub_regionalreport_19juin_fr.pdf; Algerie-dz.com, Nouvelle politique de l'eau en Algérie, January 25th, 2005 , http://www.algerie-dz.com/article1498.html; EIU Country Profiles. 29 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1995 · Decentralization reforms - Law 10-95 (1995): A legislative reform which started a process of decentralization of the water resource management. Led to the 2+ 2- to 2+ creation of 7 basin agencies equipped with financial autonomy. These agencies are in charge of: water policy and integrated management missions in the frame of hydrographic basins. 1997 · Private sector participation through full concession of a major service in at least one city - In April 1997 France's Lyonnaise des eaux was granted a 30-year 3- 2+ to 3- concession to run Casablanca's water, waste-water and power systems. 1998 · Privatet sector participation through full concession of a major service in at least one city - A Portuguese-Spanish consortium was granted a similar contract in 3- n/a 1998 for Rabat. 2004 Many of the current investments are private (4.1 bns Dhs by the LYDEC in 2003) There are 13 local authorities for distribution of water. VEOLIA 3- n/a ENVIRONNEMENT in Tanger and Tétouan and Rabat. Source : Fiche de synthèse, Les investissements des principaux offices au Maroc, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; Fiche de synthèse, Le secteur de l'environnement au Maroc, actualisation au 9 mai 2005, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR. ; Ministère de l'écologie (France)- Politique de l'eau : http://www.water-international-france.fr; Ministère de l'équipement et du transport (Morocco) : http://www.mtpnet.gov.ma/;UNDP, RAPPORT SOUS REGIONAL SUR LA MISE EN VALEUR DES RESSOURCES EN EAU EN AFRIQUE DU NORD, Mokhtar BZIOUI, Mars 2005. http://www.pnud.org.ma/pdf/sub_regionalreport_19juin_fr.pdf; EIU Country Profiles. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · In Tunisia, every institution relative to water is under the authority of a ministry (Ministère de l'Agriculture de l'Environnement et des ressources Hydrauliques, 1 Ministère de l'Equipement et de l'Habitat, Ministère du Transport, et Ministère de la Santé.). Two public bodies manage the water sector: SONEDE (Société nationale de distribution et d'exploitation de l'eau) and ONAS (Office national de l'assainissement). SONEDE missions: water distribution and production; development. 2003 · The government is encouraging the private sector, and especially foreign investors, to take up concessions for major infrastructure projects. On the list is a Tunisouest wastewater system. Sources : UNDP, RAPPORT SOUS REGIONAL SUR LA MISE EN VALEUR DES RESSOURCES EN EAU EN AFRIQUE DU NORD, Mokhtar BZIOUI, Mars 2005. http://www.pnud.org.ma/pdf/sub_regionalreport_19juin_fr.pdf; SONEDE, http://www.semide.tn/SONEDE.htm#1; ONAS, www.onas.nat.tn/; EIU Country Profiles. 30 Railway Index, 1990-2004 1 Monolithic structure operated as government department, with few commercial freedoms. No private sector involvement and extensive cross-subsidisation. 2 Rail operations distanced from state, but weak commercial objectives. Some business planning, but targets are general and tentative. No budgetary funding of public service obligations. Ancillary businesses separated, but little divestment. Minimal private sector involvement. 3 Commercial orientation in rail operations. Freight and passenger services separated and some ancillary businesses divested. Some budgetary compensation available for passenger services. Improved business planning with clear investment and rehabilitation targets, but funding unsecured. Some private sector involvement in rehabilitation and/or maintenance. 4 Railways fully commercialised, with separate internal profit centres for passenger and freight. Extensive market freedoms to set tariffs and investments. Implementation of medium-term business plans. Ancillary industries divested. Private sector participation in freight operation, ancillary services and track maintenance. 4+ Separation of infrastructure from operations and freight from passenger operations. Full divestment and transfer of asset ownership implemented or planned, including infrastructure and rolling stock. Rail regulator established and access pricing implemented. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · SNTF is a monolithic structure operated as a government department. 1 n/a 1996 · Minimal private sector participation. - At present the government plans to partly privatise the state railway company, Societe Nationale de Transport Ferroviaire 1 n/a (SNTF), which controls 4,200 km of track. Local companies have started to extend rail links to Ouargla and Hassi Messaoud. 2000 · According to the minister of transport, the SNTF will now be opened up to private investment. However, restructuring to focus on core business activities is 1 n/a required before any major private- sector opening can be expected. SNTF's passenger service is extremely depleted and the company transports mainly cargo. Rolling stock is in desperate need of replacement and the track and signalling infrastructure also require upgrading. 2001 · In 2001 the government presented to parliament's economic committee draft legislation to open the rail network to private business, operating on a franchise basis. 1 n/a Under the terms of the draft bill the state will lease out franchises for running rolling stock, commercial management, and maintaining and running signalling and safety systems to the private sector. However, by September 2005 there had been no further progress in this plan. Sources: SNTF, http://www.sntf.dz/; Algerie-dz.com, 500 milliards pour le rail algérien, April 24th, 2005, http://www.algerie-dz.com/article2337.html; Investir en Algérie, May 17th 2004, KPMG Algeria, www.algeria.kpmg.com/fr/Documents/InvestirFr.pdf; - EIU Country Profiles. Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · The state railway, run by the Office national des chemins de fer (ONCF) 1 n/a 1997 o Restructuring and private sector participation. The Office national des chemins de fer (ONCF) is being restructured under a $600m programme and may 2 1 to 2 eventually be privatised. In 1997 the project received $110m from the European Investment Bank, $88m from the African Development Bank, $85m from the World Bank, and $25m in governmentguaranteed bank loans to rehabilitate the ailing industry over a period of five years. o France has been active in this sector since 1997, upgrading the track system and rolling stock, and agreeing in February 1998 to finance a study for an underground railway for Casablanca. 2002 o Separation of infrastucture from operations - ONCF is being transformed into a limited company and divided into two arms, one to manage the infrastructure and 2+ 2 to 2+ the other to run services. 2003 · Business planning - In 2003 Morocco and Spain reached an agreement to build a double-track railway tunnel under the Strait of Gibraltar, the first direct rail link 2+ n/a between Europe and Africa. Source : Fiche de synthèse, Les investissements des principaux offices au Maroc, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; Meeting with Alexandre Baron, associate at the French embassy's trade and economics office in Morocco 31 Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Tunisia's 2,190-km rail system is operated by the Société nationale des chemins de fer tunisiens (SNCFT) and comprises a north-south coastal line and four east- 1 n/a 1997 west branches to Jendouba, Le Kef, Kassérine and Tozeur. · Some business planning - Since 1997 (under the IXth Plan framework), the SNCFT was reorganized by operational sectors and 3 agreements were signed between 1+ 1 to 1+ 1998 the state and the SNCFT setting the rules of operations for some lines and in particular unprofitable ones. · Rail operations distanced from state - Law n° 98-90 (November 2nd, 1998) relative to SNCFT: this law conferred to the SNCFT operations and management of 2 1+ to 2 railways infrastructures through a concession. 2002 Improved business planning - 2002-2006 (Xth Plan): stabilization and improvement of the financial situation of the SNCFT. 2+ 2 to 2+ Source : Tunisie.com, http://www.tunisie.com/economie/transport.html; European Union website, http://europa.eu.int/comm/world/enp/pdf/action_plans/Proposed_Action_Plan_EU-Tunisia_FR.pdf; Ministerial website, Ministère du transport, Principales réalisations et perspectives d'avenir ; http://www.ministeres.tn/html/ministeres/realisations/transport.html, SNCFT, Société nationale des Chemins de Fer Tunisiens, www.sncft.com; EIU Country Profile. Road Index, 1990-2004 1 Minimal degree of decentralisation and no commercialisation. All regulatory, road management and resource allocation functions centralised at ministerial level. New investments and road maintenance financing dependent on central budget allocations. Road user charges not based on the cost of road use. Road construction and maintenance undertaken by public construction units. No public consultation in the preparation of road projects. 2 Moderate degree of decentralisation and initial steps in commercialisation. Road/highway agency created. Improvements in resource allocation and public procurement. Road user charges based on vehicle and fuel taxes, but not linked to road use. Road fund established, but dependent on central budget. Road construction and maintenance undertaken primarily by corporatised public entities, with some private sector participation. Minimal public consultation/participation on road projects. 3 Fair degree of decentralisation and commercialisation. Regulation and resource allocation functions separated from road maintenance and operations. Level of vehicle and fuel taxes related to road use. Private companies able to provide and operate roads under negotiated commercial contracts. Private sector participation in road maintenance and/or through concessions to finance, operate and maintain parts of highway network. Limited public consultation/participation and accountability on road projects. 4 Large degree of decentralisation. Transparent methodology used to allocate road expenditures. Track record in competitive procurement for road design, construction, maintenance and operations. Large-scale private sector participation in construction, operations and maintenance directly and through public-private partnerships. Substantial public consultation/ participation and accountability on road projects. 4+ Fully decentralised road administration. Commercialised road maintenance operations competitively awarded to private companies. Road user charges reflect the full costs of road use and associated factors, such as congestion, accidents and pollution. Widespread private sector participation in all aspects of road provision. Full public consultation on new road projects. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Minimal degree of decentralisation and no commercialisation and all regulatory, road management and resource allocation functions are centralised at 1 n/a ministerial level Algeria has a very small highway network (few hundreds kms) and a very large road network (100,000 kms). Road management is under supervision if the Direction des routes (Ministère des travaux publics) which elaborates, evaluates and implement the road policy concerning roads and highways infrastructure as well as roads planning and development. · 3 sub-divisions: sous-direction des programmes routiers (roads), sous-direction des ouvrages d'art (bridges...), sous-direction des autoroutes (highways). 2004 · Road maintenance is under the responsibility of the Direction de l'Exploitation et de l'Entretien Routiers. The website of the ministry underlines the weakness of 1 n/a roads maintenance in Algeria and a new policy has been elaborated to improve roads quality (schema directeur 2005-2025). 2 national highways agencies have been created recently. ANA: (Agence Nationale des Autoroutes) and AGA (Algérienne de Gestion des Autoroutes). Sources: Ministère des Travaux Publics, http://www.mtp-dz.com/; Algeria Embassy in Canada, http://embassyalgeria.ca/html/survol1_12_surv_economie.htm; EIU, Country Report, various issues. 32 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Initial steps in commercialization and road agency created. In 1989 a highway agency was created by the state - the Société nationale des autoroutes du 2- n/a Maroc (ADM) and taxes related to road were allowed (toll road). Regulation and resources allocation functions (which are under the authority of the Direction des Routes et de la Circulation Routière ­ DRCR) are separated from operation and construction, which are provided after invitations to tender (appels d'offres). 1993 · Road users charges based on vehicle and fuel taxes. - Toll roads were made possible by the law 4-89, decree issued on February 2nd 1993, amended by law 2 2- to 2 21-03, which defined highways and allowed for private sector participation in road maintenance through concessions to finance, operate and maintain parts of highway network. This law linked toll road to maintenance and amortization of highways (art 1). 1995 · In 1995 the government authorised ADM to raise funds on the stock market for its programme in order to supplement public funding (some private 2+ 2 to 2+ financing). 2004 · ADM is a SOE: 39,3% of shares belong to the state. The Fonds Hassan II, a caritative fund created by Hassan II now owns 44.92%. Sources : Autoroutes du Maroc: http://www.adm.co.ma/home.htm, http://www.delmar.cec.eu.int/fr/meda1/medai20.htm, http://www.mtpnet.gov.ma/dgh/semide/fr/themes/instit.htm; EIU, Country Report, various issues. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · All regulatory, road management and resource allocation functions centralized at the ministerial level. The ministry in charge of roads, Ministère de l'équipement, 1 de l'habitat et de l'aménagement du territoire, describes the following tasks of the ministry concerning roads: maintenance, development, modernization as well as management and investments. Tunisia has a limited highway network and in still under ministerial authority. 2004 · The private sector has been called upon by the government to undertake future motorway construction on a concessionary basis, but has so far shown little interest 1 in doing so. There is a 20,000-km network of primary and secondary roads, which are mostly paved and reasonably maintained. The network has received substantial investment but is increasingly congested, especially in the large towns. Source: Ministère de l'équipement, de l'habitat et de l'aménagement du territoire, http://www.ministeres.tn/html/ministeres/attributions/equipement.html, GEA (information and electronic technology for toll roads) http://www.gea.fr/Francais/Gea_ref_fr.htm, allAfrica.com, article about budgetary debates in Tunisia ­Dec 4th 2005) http://fr.allafrica.com/stories/200512050529.html, EIU Country Profiles. 33 ICT Index, 1990-2004 1 Little progress in commercialisation and regulation. Minimal private sector involvement and strong political interference in management decisions. Low tariffs, with extensive cross subsidisation. Liberalisation not envisaged, even for mobile telephony and value-added services. 2 Modest progress in commercialisation. Corporatisation of dominant operator and some separation from public sector governance, but tariffs are still politically set. 3 Substantial progress in commercialisation and regulation. Telecommunications and postal services fully separated, and cross-subsidies reduced. Considerable liberalisation in the mobile segment and in value-added services. 4 Complete commercialisation, including privatisation of the dominant operator, and comprehensive regulatory and institutional reforms. Extensive liberalisation of entry. 4+ Effective regulation through an independent entity. Coherent regulatory and institutional framework to deal with tariffs, interconnection rules, licensing, concession fees and spectrum allocation. Consumer ombudsman function. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1999 · In September 1999 Arab investors from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan signed an agreement with a local firm, Heelit Holdings, to form a mobile 1+ 1 to 1+ telecommunications company. Heelit has been awarded a Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) licence to operate across the whole country. The first phase of the project was completed by end-1999, with the network operational in January 2000 .The development of the sector is seen as essential for attracting foreign investment to the country. Algeria has a limited analogue domestic mobiles system, which was installed by Finland's Nokia in 1989. 2000 · Modest progress in commercialization. Both houses of parliament have recently approved a post and telecoms bill that will end the state's monopoly of the sector. 2 1+ to 2 An international tender for a private GSM licence is expected to be launched in 2001. The telecoms law of 2000 sets out plans for the eventual privatisation of the sector, providing for a state role restricted to regulatory rather than service provision activities. 2001 · Progress in commercialization and regulation. Telecoms and postal service separated. As part of plans to restructure the telecommunications sector, the 3 2 to 3 government has set up a new joint-stock company, Algerie Telecom, to take over the operation of fixed-line services and of the global system for mobiles (GSM) network from the Posts and Telecommunications Ministry (PTT). This was accompanied by the creation of an independent regulatory agency, Autorité de régulation de la poste et des télécommunications. · Considerable liberalisation in the mobile segment and in value-added services Algeria's first private global system for mobile communications (GSM) licence was awarded to Orascom Telecom (OT) of Egypt in mid-July 2001. Orascom Telecom's licence is for 15 years, automatically renewable for five-year periods. The only other GSM service is operated by the state-owned telecoms monopoly, Algerie Telecom, and this suffers from both high prices and poor coverage. Furthermore, OT is protected from the entry of competitors until 2004 by a generous exclusivity clause in its contract. Nevertheless, AT is in the process of upgrading its services. 2004 · The government put the fixed-line section of Algérie Telecom up for sale in early 2004, but received no offers. The poor response was attributed to the high asking 3 n/a price and the low financial returns from fixed-line services. Source: Fiche de synthèse, Le secteur des Télécommunications en Algérie, Actualisation au 19 juin 2005, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; EIU Country Profiles. Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990- · Office National des Postes et Télécommunications (ONPT) runned as a state-owned enterprise monopoly. Planning and regulations setting were devolved to the 1 n/a 1993 state (Ministère des Postes et Télécommunications). No private sector involvement. 1994 · Modes progress in commercialization. First GSM licence awarded. Until 1994 (M.Filali's government), the ONPT management was under the minister personal 2 1 to 2 authority. 1996 · Progress in commercialization and regulation. In 1996, a telecommunication law allowed for competition in all the segments of the market and set up an independent regulatory agency, the Agence nationale de régulation des télécommunications (ANRT). The terms of the mobile license created a competitive 2+ 2 to 2+ 34 environment by allowing the new entrant to develop its own network and by leaving open the possibility of extending the range of services it can provide. The licensing process is conducted by the ANRT which sets out criteria for evaluating bids in a tender document and asks qualified bidders to make technical and financial bids. A bid evaluation report was also published on the ANRT website. 1997 · Telecommunication and postal services separated - In 1997 the Office national des postes et télécommunications (ONPT) was split into two parts, Ittissalat al- 3- 2+ to 3- Maghrib, which covers telecommunications, and Barid al-Maghrib, which handles post office services. 1999 · Liberlization in the mobile segment. Until 1999 the state-owned Maroc Télécom (MT) was the monopoly telecoms provider. The licence for the country's second global system for mobile com-munications (GSM) was won in 1999 by Médi-Télécom (MEDITEL) a private consortium led by Spain's Telefonica, with a bid of 3 3- to 3 US$1.1bn. 2000 · In 2000, MEDITEL entered the market of the mobile phone, triggering a fierce war with MAROC TELECOM, and a decrease in prices. In addition to changing its name (Maroc-Telecom) and cutting fixed-line telephone tariffs by 10%, the company has reduced mobile phone subscription and connection charges, issued 3 n/a cheaper pre-paid phone cards, and made tariff cuts--the latest of which, effective from November 1st 1999, saw the rates for GSM calls drop by 33%. 2001 · Substantial progress in commercilization. In December 2000 a 35% stake in Maroc-Télécom (MT) was sold to Vivendi-Universal of France for US$2.2bn. The IMF notes that the liberalization and privatization of the telecommunication sector has not only brought in substantial financial benefits, but also increased 3+ 3 to 3+ efficiency and competition resulting in reduced communication prices while creating a large number of jobs. 2004 · Effective regulation through independent entity. The government has said it will relaunch the liberalisation of the telecommunications sector in 2004, with the sale of a second fixed-line telephony licence. However, tenders for the licence are unlikely to be issued until later in the year, because the telecoms regulator, Agence nationale de réglementation des telecommunications (ANRT), wants to make sure that the licence is marketed correctly. 4- 3+ to 4- · Extensive liberalization of entry. Law n°55-01 modifies and completes law n°24-96 was published on Nov 8th 2004 to continue the liberalisation process: licence number 2 was cut into pieces to allow for less important operators to enter the market and compete with MAROC TELECOM. · Considerable liberalization in the mobile segment. In November 2004 the government disposed of a further 30.9% of MT stock: 16% (for Dh12.4bn) by direct sale to France.s Vivendi Universal and 14.9% (for Dh9bn) by stockmarket flotation in Casablanca and Paris. Vivendi, which bought a 35% stake in MT for Dh23.3bn in 2001, now has a controlling stake of 51%. The Moroccan state will hold its remaining 34.1% at least until 2007. Source : Fiche de synthèse, Les télécommunications au Maroc, Actualisation au 6 décembre 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; Ittissalat al-Maghrib website ; Projet pour la réforme du secteur des télécommunications au Maroc, Mohamed SOUAL http://www.maroc2020.ma/Telecom.htm#T3, EIU Country Profiles, 1996-2005, IMF Country Reports, various issues. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1996 · Corporatisation of operator. In early 1996 the government shifted responsibility for the network from the communications ministry to a new public company, 1+ 1 to 1+ Office tunisie telecoms, to increase efficiency and speed up the installation of 880,000 new lines and 58 digital switching centres. Work has begun on building a GSM cellular telephone network for 200,000 subscribers. 1998 · Separation of telecom and postal services. Telecommunications and postal services were fully separated since June 15th 1998, LA POSTE TUNISIENNE was 2 1+ to 2 created at that time. 2001 · Progress in commercialization and regulation. New telecommunications code (2001): creation of an authority of regulation, the Instance Nationale des 2+ 2 to 2+ Télécommunications (INT), and an attempt to introduce competition in the sector. In 2001 TT invited tenders for the first private GSM licence, with the winner required to inaugurate its service in early 2002. 2002 · Progress in commercialization - In May 2002 Orascom Telecom Tunisia (OTT) bought a second mobile phone licence for US$454m and granted Alcatel the US$125m contract to set up the network. Tunisia.s first private GSM network was inaugurated at the end of December 2002. The company is marketing its service 35 aggressively under the .Tunisiana. brand. 2003 · The state telecoms company, Tunisie télécom (TT), reduced the cost of international calls by over 25% from January 2003. Despite the drop in local and international call charges in recent years, they were still above the international average before the latest reductions. The recent price cuts have narrowed the gap, 3 n/a but overseas calls still remain relatively expensive. Fixed-line density remains low by developed-nation standards. 2004 · TT's status was changed to a societé anonyme (limited company) in April 2004 in preparation for a sell-off. · Aggressive price competition between the two GSM providers, which has led to significant reductions in activation and usage charges. TT cut its mobile-phone 3 n/a usage tariffs in late 2003 by 11% and by 25% in May 2004. TT has also responded to competition from Tunisiana by launching new mobile-phone services, including overseas call transfers for pre-paid mobile subscribers, itemised billing, access to account balances by text-message, and internal mobile phone networks for companies. · The government has also awarded a concession to build and operate a VSAT network, with international connectivity (TT's VSAT services are currently limited to Tunisia itself). Source: March 2000, IMF Country Report No. 00/37, Tunisia: Recent Economic Development; TUNISIE TELECOM website: http://www.tunisietelecom.tn/fr/tuntel/activites.htm; Instance Nationale des Télécommunications website: http://www.intt.tn/site/fr/; LA POSTE TUNISIENNE website : http://www.poste.tn/index.htm; EIU Country Profiles. 36 EBRD: Financial Sector Indices, 1990-2004 Banking & Interest Rate Liberalization Index, 1990-2004 1 Little progress beyond establishment of a two-tier system. 2 Significant liberalisation of interest rates and credit allocation; limited use of directed credit or interest rate ceilings. 3 Substantial progress in establishment of bank solvency and of a framework for prudential supervision and regulation; full interest rate liberalisation with little preferential access to cheap refinancing; significant lending to private enterprises and significant presence of private banks. 4 Significant movement of banking laws and regulations towards BIS standards; well-functioning banking competition and effective prudential supervision; significant term lending to private enterprises; substantial financial deepening. 4+ Standards and performance norms of advanced industrial economies: full convergence of banking laws and regulations with BIS standards; provision of full set of competitive banking services. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Since 1968 the state banking sector has been dominated by three major commercial institutions; Banque Nationale d'Algerie (BNA), Banque Exterieure d'Algerie 1 n/a (BEA) and Credit Populaire d'Algerie (CPA). Two other commercial banks are Banque Algerienne de Developpement (BAD), established in 1963, and Caisse Nationale d'Epargne et de Prevoyance, the national savings bank. · Audits of state-owned local banks carried out by international firms since late 1994 showed that, with the exception of BNA, all local institutions required re- capitalisation to reach initial capital adequacy ratios of 4%. (Basle banking requirements stipulate a minimum of 10%). 1995 · Presence of private banks. The first local private bank, Union Bank, has been operating since late 1995 and other private banks are being created, including First 1+ 1 to 1+ Private Bank of Algeria, in which Societe generale of France is expected to have a 45% stake. 1996 · Private companies are in principle permitted to set up money-changing shops following a December 1996 directive, opening another field previously restricted to 1+ n/a state-owned banks. This move was seen as a prelude to Algeria declaring current-account convertibility under the IMF's Article VIII terms. 2001 · Limited lending to private sector. There is a reluctance among commercial banks to make investment loans to the private sector. Claims on the private sector 1+ na/ accounted for only 20% of total commercial banks' claims at end-2001, and this included short-term claims. 2004 · The state-owned banks dominate the sector, accounting for over 95% of total bank assets. They have tended to lend to loss-making public companies or regime insiders, with little or no credit risk assessments. 2- 1+ to 2- · The central bank made a modest start to the process of upgrading the sector in May 2004 by increasing the minimum capital requirement for foreign branches to AD2bn (US$29m) from a previous level of AD500m. Some of the 13 foreign banks licensed to operate in Algeria already have capital in excess of the previous minimum level. · The Ministry of Finance has tightened its control on public banks through strengthened performance contracts. Modernization of the payment system and the information and accounting systems is in progress. The latter should significantly improve the quality and timeliness of data reporting and should further facilitate the conduct of banking supervision by BA, which continues to be strengthened with Fund technical assistance. Sources: New Roles for Banks in Algeria, Remarks by Jules Erik J. De Vrijer, International Monetary Fund At the US-Algeria Business Council Banking and Finance Symposium New York, February 3, 2005; Report for 2003 on the annual Article IV consultation (IMF Country Report No. 04/33); February 2004, IMF Country report No.04/31, Algeria: selected issue and statistical appendix; EIU Country Profiles. 37 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990- · Progress in banking liberalization. Because of the structural adjustment plan of the early 80's, the moroccan financial sector has been deeply reformed, 3 axes: 1+ 1993 reforming capital markets, liberalisation of financial operations and reform of the bank regulatory framework. This led to the 1993 bank law which introduced: liberalization of the credit allocation, liberalization of debtor interest rates (1996) and the creation of an interbank change market. The liberalization of the bank sector happened with the strengthening of the prudential framework which have uncovered weaknesses in some of the smaller commerical banks, prompting speculation of mergers or takeovers. · Interest rates were deregulated in 1996, ending the system of fixed rates and allowing banks to set rates according to their own credit assessments of customers. 2 1+ to 2 1996 Reserve requirements for commercial banks have also been reduced from 20% to 15%. · Other reforms scheduled for 1996 included a secondary market in public debt, an interbank foreign exchange market and the launch of privatisation bonds and global depository receipts (GDRs). At present only the interbank foreign exchange market has been implemented. · Regulations moving towards BIS standards - Measures to improve banking regulation include the enforcement of the 8% capital-adequacy ratio for banks set by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). In 1996 the risk ratio for lending to single borrowers was raised from 7% to 10% of equity (from 7%). Provisioning requirements were also tightened. · Reducing preferential acess to cheap financing - Mandatory lending to the government at a discount was abolished in 1997- banks will no longer be required to 1997 buy Treasury bills at below-market rates, thus forcing the Treasury to compete with the private sector for funds. 2+ 2 to 2+ · Limited term lending to private enterprise. According to the World Bank, "serious problems" are evident in Morocco's financial sector, which have constrained the 2002 provision of credit to local firms at reasonable interest rates. Moroccan manufacturing firms are financed overwhelmingly from the owners' equity and retained 2+ n/a earnings. A World Bank survey of 2002 found that of the typical balance sheet, only 20% of financing came from the banking sector. This compares unfavourably with India (36%) and Thailand (47%). Lending rates also remain high, despite the fact that inflation and commercial banks' cost of capital are low. · IMF observes that the central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has made significant progress in the implementation of FSAP recommendations to strengthen banking supervision and improve banks' risk management practices. 3- 2+ to 3- 2004 · Full interest-rate liberalization. In January 2004 the central bank changed the way that it manages the country's monetary supply, in a move that should encourage commercial banks to increase their lending, by lowering their cost of capital. The bank has abandoned a fixed 3.25% interest rate for its daily repo auctions (the rate offered by the central bank for very short-term lending to the government) in favour of weekly tenders with a minimum 2.25% rate. The move will bring Treasury bill and interbank rates down (interbank rates fell from 2.5% to 2% in the first week of January 2004 according to the IMF) and should encourage the commercial banks, which have relied heavily on the risk-free practice of financing the government's daily needs, to turn to longer-maturity investments and to commercial customers. Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Le secteur bancaire au Maroc 26 juillet 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; EIU Country Profiles ; -IMF Country Reports. 38 Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 Through amendments to the banking law in December 1989, the government strengthened the central bank authority and widened its regulatory and supervisory 1+ powers, and on this basis, revised in 1991 the existing prudential regulations in order to bring them in line with international standards. The minimum capital adequacy ratio is fixed at 5% in accordance with the Basle Accord for tier I capital. 1994 Progress in framework for prudential supervision and regulation. Legislation to increase competition, improve efficiency and bring the banking sector in line with 2 1 to 2 international banking norms was introduced in February 1994. The law sought to increase competition by allowing all banks to take on commercial, development and offshore functions; however, most have preferred to remain in their own niche markets. · The law also introduced tighter standards of prudence against risk: banks are required to set aside at least 50% of their profits to cover bad debts estimated at $3bn; they are required to meet a 5% capital adequacy requirement (although state-owned commercial banks have yet to do so); their permitted exposure to a single sector has been reduced from 40% to 25% of equity; and banks are not allowed to make unsecured loans. · Banks were also allowed to take on commercial, development and offshore functions. The law also shifts the Banque Centrale de Tunisie, (BCT, the central bank), from active management of the financial sector to a supervisory and regulatory role. · Full interest rate liberalization - The liberalization of bank lending interest rates was completed with the elimination of mandatory lending to priority sectors and 1996 associated preferential interest and refinancing rates. · Progress in establishment of bank solvency and reinforcing prudential regulations. Under a reform program launched in 1999 with the support of the World Bank, 1999 significant progress has been made in restructuring public sector banks and in reinforcing prudential regulations in the banking sector. The capital asset ratio for the banking sector as a whole rose from 8.9 percent in 1998 to 10.1 percent in 1999 (only one bank still failed to reach the minimum 8 percent ratio). Furthermore, the 2+ 2 to 2+ level of unprovisioned bad loans was reduced to 14.1 percent of total liabilities in 1999 from over 20 percent in 1997. However, the burden of nonperforming loans is still high (20 percent of GDP in 1999). · The banking sector has generally been strengthened in recent years by a downward trend in NPLs, government guarantees of public-sector debt and Banque 2004 centrale de Tunisie (central bank) insistence on higher provisioning. Nevertheless, many banks still have a high level of credit risk in their lending profile, and the adoption of new technology in banks' operations has been fairly slow. The system also remains characterised by a weak payment culture and a legal environment that is unfavourable to creditors. These problems dampen the pace of economic modernisation since banks with poor loan portfolios are reluctant to extend credit to small and medium-sized enterprises. Source: December 1998, IMF Staff Country Report No. 98/129, Tunisia: Banking System Issues and Statistical Appendix.; February 24, 2005, IMF, TUNISIA, Preliminary Findings of the Interim Staff Visit.; IMF Country Reports; EIU Country Profiles. 39 Non-bank financial institutions Index, 1990-2004 1 Little progress. 2 Formation of securities exchanges, market-makers and brokers; some trading in government paper and/or securities; rudimentary legal and regulatory framework for the issuance and trading of securities. 3 Substantial issuance of securities by private enterprises; establishment of independent share registries, secure clearance and settlement procedures, and some protection of minority shareholders; emergence of non-bank financial institutions (for example, investment funds, private insurance and pension funds, leasing companies) and associated regulatory framework. 4 Securities laws and regulations approaching IOSCO standards; substantial market liquidity and capitalisation; well-functioning non-bank financial institutions and effective regulation. 4+ Standards and performance norms of advanced industrial economies: full convergence of securities laws and regulations with IOSCO standards; fully developed non-bank intermediation. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990- · Trust Algeria, a joint-venture insurance company involving Bahraini and Qatari shareholders, began operations in July 1997. 1 1997 1999 · Formation of securities exchange - The Algiers stock exchange was officially opened on July 28th, 1999.Stock exchange was opened at the beginning of 1998 and 2- 1 to 2- the associated regulatory institutions for its operations. 2004 · The Algiers Stock Exchange remains tiny, and a brokerage network has yet to be established. There are still only three companies listed: Eriad-Setif, a food processing company; Saidal, a pharmaceutical company; and El Aurassi Hotel. Sources: May 2004, IMF Country Report No. 04/138, Algeria: Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on the following topics: Monetary and Financial Policy Transparency and Banking Supervision; EIU Country Profiles; IMF Country Reports. Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Until 1990, the Casablanca Stock Exchange (Bourse des valeurs de Casablanca ) has seen two reforms since it was inaugurated in 1929. Under the first, in 1948, 1+ the Securities exchange acquired legal personality. The second, in 1967, involved a legal and technical reorganisation, and a change in legal status to that of a public establishment. 1993 · The Casablanca stock market is underwent a third round of reforms designed to attract increased interest from overseas and local investors. The stock exchange is 2- 1+ to 2- one of the few Middle Eastern bourses with no restrictions on foreign participation. · The government approved legislation to turn the bourse into a private company with stock held by brokers, to create new stock-trading bodies and to channel the funds of small savers into share issues and unit trusts. · A stockmarket regulator , the Conseil déontologique des valeurs mobilières (CDVM) was established (Dahir portant loi n° 1-93-212 of september 21st 1993 modified et completed by law 23-01). 40 1997 · Stock market officials have begun a campaign to persuade more companies to obtain market listings in order to boost the current 46 companies and banks quoted. 1998 · Growth in non-bank financial institutions.- The mutual funds' assets under management soared to $2.7bn in 1998, a 134.5% increase over the previous year. 2 2- to 2 2003 · At the end of 2003, three new laws were enforced concerning the stock market in Morocco. - Amendment to the law n°1-93-212 (September 21st, 1993): Increases the powers of the "Conseil Déontologique des Valeurs Mobilières" (CDVM): control 2+ 2 to 2+ over the stock market, the right to lead inquiries and auditions, introduction of different levels of sanctions. - Amendment to the law n°1-93-211 (September 21st, 1993) : The Casablanca Stock Exchange ("Bourse de Casablanca") is reset into 5 categories. New indicators and data daily published (rates curve). Free commissions. - Public offers: The text aims at guaranteeing transparency information equality between shareholders. No legal text concerning public offers before this date. Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Le marché des actions marocain : bilan à fin 2003, Actualisation à avril 2004, DREE-MINEFI/TRESOR, EIU Country Profiles, IMF Country Reports. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Bourse des valeurs mobilières (BVM), a semi-privatised stock exchange was opened in 1990. 2- 1994 · Establishment of independent share registries, secure clearance and settlement procedures. The regulation of public offerings of securities and the role and 2 2- to 2 responsibilities of the Financial Market Board (Conseil du March Financier--CMF), market intermediaries, the Tunisian Stock Exchange (Bourse des Valeurs Mobilires de Tunisie--BVMT), and the Tunisian Interprofessional Clearing Company and Securities Depository (Socit Tunisienne Interprofessionnelle de Compensation et de Dpt de Valeurs Mobilires--STICODEVAM) are defined in a single law passed in November 1994 (law 94-117 regulating securities operations). 1996 · There are also 86 investment funds (SICAFs) managing TD513m at the end of 1996. Risk capital funds (SICARs) were launched in 1996, and there were nine SICARs managing TD107m of funds at the end of that year. 1997 · Lifting of the ceiling was lifted foreign ownership of quoted companies from 10% to 49.99%. · Of 20 insurance companies in total, 15 are Tunisian and five are foreign, including firms from France and Italy. Sources: December 1998, IMF Staff Country Report No. 98/129, Tunisia: Banking System Issues and Statistical Appendix, IMF Report on Observance of Standards and Codes: Tunisia, Jan 2001, IMF country reports. 41 EBRD: Investment Climate Indices, 1990-2004 EBRD index of Privatization, 1990-2004 Large Scale 1 Little private ownership. 2 Comprehensive scheme almost ready for implementation; some sales completed. 3 More than 25 per cent of large-scale enterprise assets in private hands or in the process of being privatised (with the process having reached a stage at which the state has effectively ceded its ownership rights), but possibly with major unresolved issues regarding corporate governance. 4 More than 50 per cent of state-owned enterprise and farm assets in private ownership and significant progress on corporate governance of these enterprises. 4+ Standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: more than 75 per cent of enterprise assets in private ownership with effective corporate governance. Smale Scale 1 Little progress. 2 Substantial share privatised. 3 Complete privatisation of small companies with tradable ownership rights. 4+ Standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies; no state ownership of small enterprises; effective tradability of land Algeria Year Description EBRD EBRD Index Index (Large (Small Scale) Scale) 1993 · As of 1993, there were 1300 local public enterprises (EPL) and 400 national enterprises (large public enterprises). Another group of 12 companies sold imported food 1 1 at subsidized prices. 1995 · Algeria's privatization program was launched in 1995 with the passage of Law 95-22. The government has identified some 200-230 state companies for sale in whole 1+ 1+ or in part. The law allowed for 100% private ownership in most public enterprises. 1996 · Thus far, only ten sales have been completed and most of these have been in the hotel sector. The next phase of the privatization programme focuses on 1,300 small 1+ 1+ and medium-sized firms, to be sold mainly through tender sales or worker and management buy-outs. 1997- · Sales completed in the past 21 months include those of 60 small state-owned enterprises, such as hotels and soft-drink concerns. By 1998, 877 were liquidated or sold 1+ 2+ 1998 which is more than 67 percent. 2001 · The IMF notes that there has been "no real privatisation yet", save for the listing and sale on the stock exchange of 20% of the equity of three companies (Eriad-Setif, 1+ 2+ Saidal and El-Aurassi). According to government plans, 184 state-owned enterprises are to be partially or wholly sold off by end-2004. 2004 · A comprehensive scheme for large-scale privatisation is far from being set up. The government announced in February 2002 that it would privatise, either fully or partially, 100 state-owned firms during the course of the year. These mostly comprised small companies in areas ranging from hotels to food-processing, although 1+ 2+ they also included the shipping firm SNTM and three medium-sized cement plants. Yet by September 2004 nothing had been sold, in a throwback to a previous privatization effort in 1998, when the government failed to sell any of 89 state-owned companies that it had planned to privatise as a result of strong opposition by powerful trade unions and confusion about who was in charge of the process. Sources : February 2004, IMF Country report No.04/31, Algeria: selected issue and statistical appendix; February 2005, IMF Country Report No. 05/5O, Algeria: 2004 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria; EIU Country Profiles; IMF Country Reports. 42 Morocco Year Description EBRD EBRD Index Index (Large (Small Scale) Scale) 1990 · Morocco's privatisation programme is one of the most advanced in the region, grossing Dh7.4bn ($820m) of receipts by the end of 1995. First approved by parliament 2- 1 in 1989, it envisaged the divestment of 112 companies by 1996. Morocco is stated to have more than 600 SOE (which implies less than 20% of SOE). 1993 · Little progress was made until 1993, when the programme accelerated with the sale of shares in hotels, road transport, petroleum distribution, petrochemicals, 2 1+ housing, textiles and a major cement company. In 1993 the government sold 51% of its shares in the country's argest cement company, Ciments de l'Oriental (Cior), to a subsidiary of Switzerland's Holderbank. 1994 · More divestments followed in 1994, when a further 27 enterprises were sold, including the important state holding company, Société nationale d'investissements 2+ 1+ (SNI), four more petroleum distribution companies, four commercial and industrial enterprises, and eight hotels. 1996 · Only 49 companies were sold by the end of 1996, as differences of opinion emerged in the cabinet and slowed progress. In 1996 the government sold a 67% share in 2+ 1+ the Imiter silver mine to Omnium nord africain (ONA). · The government's most advanced privatisation instruments to date were tested in 1996, when privatisation bonds were issued on the domestic market for the first time. The most successful formula developed for the larger privatisations has been to sell a substantial share (25-50%) of the business to a core group of strategic (usually foreign) investors, who pledge to bring in capital and technical expertise. Another tranche is then floated on the Casablanca stock exchange, with priority given to small local investors. Finally, a separate international placement aims to attract foreign institutional and private investors, with the government generally retaining a small stake. 1997 · Sales continued in 1997 with the purchase of majority stakes in the country's two state oil refineries by a Saudi-owned Swedish-based company, Corral, for $420m. 2+ 1+ 1999 · Of the 114 state enterprises that were identified for privatisation in 1993, only 60 have been sold to date. 2000 2+ 1+ 2003 · In December 2000 a 35% stake in state-owned Maroc Télécom (MT) was sold to Vivendi-Universal of France for US$2.2bn. · In the middle of the year the Franco-Spanish tobacco company, Altadis, paid Dh14.08bn (US$1.49bn, or 1.28bn) for an 80% stake in state-owned tobacco firm Régie 3 1+ 3 1+ des tabacs (RDT). Sources : Ministères des finances et de la privatisation , http://www.finances.gov.ma/eep/Privatisations/privatisation.htm# ; EIU Country Profiles; IMF Country Reports. Tunisia Year Description EBRD EBRD Index Index (Large (Small Scale) Scale) 43 1990 · There was approximately (232+48)=280 SOE in 1987. In its first phase privatization involved the disposal of small, mostly loss-making firms in the tourism, 1 1 transport, food and construction materials sectors. 1994 · From 1987 to 1994 just 48 firms were sold for a total of TD195m (US$134m at the rate prevailing in mid-September 2000). In 1994 the government sold 20% of the 1 1 national carrier, Tunisair. 1996 · The sale of state assets has been slowed by residual political resistance, fears that state companies might be sold too cheaply, and a wish to avoid mass sackings from 1+ overstaffed companies. Another obstacle has been that many public companies are in sectors, such as energy, which the government considers "strategic". 1 · By September 1996 some 60 out of around 200 public enterprises had been sold off. But most were small companies in the tourism and transport sectors, and many were loss-making, although the list also included 20% of the state carrier Tunis Air. 1997 · By September 1997 some 88 out of around 200 public enterprises had been sold off for a total of some $360m. 1 2- 1998 · By mid-1998 the government had privatized 95 mostly small firms in whole or in part, bringing in revenue of TD402m ($359m). 1 2- 2002 · Receipts rose to TD135m in 2002 from the sale of five firms, including TD103m from the divestment of a 52% stake in Union internationale de banques, and to 2 2- TD475m if the TD340m from the first of two payments for the sale of a second GSM licence is included. 2003 · By the end of 2003 176 public enterprises had been fully or partially privatised (or shut down and their assets sold off), bringing in receipts of over TD2.4bn (US$1.8bn), about TD1.75bn (73%) of it from foreign investors, mostly from the sale of cement plants and banks and telecoms concessions. 2 3- Sources: March 2000, IMF Country Report No. 00/37, Tunisia: Recent Economic Development; La privatisation en Tunisie: http://www.tunisieinfo.com/privatisation/; EIU Country Profiles; IMF Country Reports Governance and Enterprise Restructuring Index, 1990-2004 1 Soft budget constraints (lax credit and subsidy policies weakening financial discipline at the enterprise level); few other reforms to promote corporate governance. 2 Moderately tight credit and subsidy policy, but weak enforcement of bankruptcy legislation and little action taken to strengthen competition and corporate governance. 3 Significant and sustained actions to harden budget constraints and to promote corporate governance effectively (for example, privatisation combined with tight credit and subsidy policies and/or enforcement of bankruptcy legislation). 4 Substantial improvement in corporate governance and significant new investment at the enterprise level. 4+ Standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: effective corporate control exercised through domestic financial institutions and markets, fostering market-driven restructuring. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Some reform efforts to promote corporate governance - A new money and credit law was passed in March 1990, paving the way for international participation in 1+ Algeria's economic reconstruction. The law also sought to bring a new realism to the economy, introducing such concepts as public-sector bankruptcies. 1998 · Economic reforms focused on restructuring public enterprises. More than half of the small local public enterprises were liquidated or privatized, while the public 2- 1+ to 2- sector withdrew almost completely from distribution and importing activities. 2000 · The state power company, Sonelgaz, is to be restructured, with at least three new electricity companies, responsible for the production, transmission and 2- n/a distribution of power, to be created from the giant state utility. 2004 · soft budget constraints facing public enterprise - after more than 10 years into the economic transition process to a market economy, Algeria still maintains a 2- n/a sizeable an inefficient state-owned enterprise sector. Continued financial support to public enterprise through directed credit has been the main factor of the fragility of the Algerian banking system. Between 1991 and 2002, the Treasury repeatedly bailed out the public banks to enable them to meet prudential ratios. On average, these interventions amounted to 4 percent of GDP per year over 1991-2002. Sources: EIU Country Profiles ; IMF Country Reports ; Algeria-Watch, http://www.algeria-watch.org/farticle/tribune/liberalisation.htm; webpage on economic liberalization and privatizations in Algeria by Adel Abderrezak, Constantine University: http://membres.lycos.fr/pstdz/10et11N1.pdf.;Une lecture économique de la crise algérienne », Jacques Ould Aoudia : http://www.fen.fr/~marchand/LIEN/Lien%2035/LCA.html 44 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1995 · Corporate restructuring -The national carrier, Royal Air Maroc (RAM), is being restructured in preparation for privatisation. In 1995 the government confirmed 1+ 1 to 1+ that the airline's monopoly would be dismantled in favour of an open-skies policy. 1997 · The legal basis for private sector development was further strengthened by amendments to the corporate laws and bankruptcy procedures. 2002 · Improvements in corporate governance - The IMF notes that governance issues have come to the forefront as a result of the authorities efforts to disclose 2 major 2- 1+ to 2- financial scandals ­ one concerning two government banks (CNCA and CIH) and the other social security institution that cover private sector employees (CNSS). Acting forcefully and in a transparent manner against those involved has provided a clear departure from past practices and help to improve the climate for private- sector activity. 2003 · A World Bank 2003 report has states that the inefficiency of the judicial system is holding back economic development. The report said that the courts move too 2 2- to 2 slowly in dealing with cases, bankruptcy protection and liquidation procedures are inefficient and the courts often fail to enforce legal rulings. Sources : EIU Country Profiles, 96-2005, IMF Country Reports and PIN, 1996-2005. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1996 · Tigher credit and subsidy policy. By September 1996 some 60 out of around 200 public enterprises had been sold off. But most were small companies in the 2 1 to 2 tourism and transport sectors, and many were loss-making, although the list also included 20% of the state carrier Tunis Air. An industrial restructuring program (Le Programme de Mise à Niveau ) was launched to prepare private manufacturing enterprise for market liberalization and European competition. 2002 · By the end of 2003, 176 public enterprises had been fully or partially privatised (or shut down and their assets sold off). 2+ 2 to 2+ Sources: C.A.I.MED, Politiques pour les entreprises dans la Région Méditerraneénne ­ Tunisie : unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/ public/documents/CAIMED/UNPAN018863.pdf ; http://www.tunisieinfo.com/privatisation/; Ministerial website, Ministère du transport, Principales réalisations et perspectives d'avenir : http://www.ministeres.tn/html/ministeres/realisations/transport.html; EU Commission, Politique européenne de voisinage, Rapport sur la TUNISIE, May 12th, 2004 ; EIU Country Profiles, 96-2005 ; IMF Country Reports and PIN, 1996-2005. EBRD index of price liberalisation, 1990-2004 1 Most prices formally controlled by the government. 2 Some lifting of price administration; state procurement at non-market prices for the majority of product categories. 3 Significant progress on price liberalisation, but state procurement at non-market prices remains substantial. 4 Comprehensive price liberalisation; state procurement at non-market prices largely phased out; only a small number of administered prices remain. 4+ Standards and performance typical of advanced industrial economies: complete price liberalisation with no price control outside housing, transport and natural monopolies. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change 45 Index in Value 1990 · Price liberalization started with law 89 - 12 (July 5th, 1989) which defined a new price policy in Algeria. 2 1992- · The Belaïd Abdesslam government and its "war economy programme" enforced a social netting (or social safety net) through subsidies to families in need to 2+ 2 to 2+ 1995 compensate consequences of price liberalization of some food products on purchasing power. · The government's efforts to cut subsidies helped fuel inflation up to around 30% in 1994 and 1995 1997 · With a few exceptions, domestic prices have been freed, and generalized food subsidies eliminated. Subsidies are still in place for production inputs such as cereal 3- 2+ to 3- and gas. Sources: EIU Country Profiles ; IMF Country Reports ; Algeria-Watch, http://www.algeria-watch.org/farticle/tribune/liberalisation.htm; webpage on economic liberalization and privatizations in Algeria by Adel Abderrezak, Constantine University: http://membres.lycos.fr/pstdz/10et11N1.pdf.;Une lecture économique de la crise algérienne », Jacques Ould Aoudia : http://www.fen.fr/~marchand/LIEN/Lien%2035/LCA.html 46 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · The move towards price liberalization started in 1980's. This was a product of the 1980 structural adjustment plan. Price of bran was liberalized in 1988 for 2 instance. 1996 · Further lifting of price control though state procures at non-market price for agriculture. Government controls on prices are being gradually phased out, and now 2+ 2 to 2+ apply to only a few products such as some basic foods, health products and some educational materials. Agricultural wholesale and farm-gate prices are controlled in order to protect rural incomes and influence production patterns. 2001 · Significant progress on price liberalization -Title II of the law n°06-99 (that came into force in July 2001) sets down the principle of free prices. Prices of goods, products and services are to be determined by the free competition rules. 2 exceptions: the administration can intervene for economic reasons (structural reasons 3 2+ to 3 such as monopoly) or conjuncture reasons (such as a crisis). For some goods, free prices will occur after the transition period which ends at the end of 2006 (sugar, tobacco, water) Sources : EIU Country Profiles ; IMF Country Reports ; Government website, La compétitivité Economique du Maroc dans le nouveau contexte de libéralisation des échanges, Janvier 1997 ; Economic Research, BNP-Paribas, La trajectoire économique des pays du Maghreb. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1991 · Price liberalization introduced in Tunisia with the law n° 91-64 (July 29th, 1991). 1+ 1 to 1+ 1995 · At the start of 1995, 87% of prices were deregulated at the production level and 80.5% at the distribution level. 3 1+ to 3 2002 · In mid-2002 19% of all prices were still administered by the state, a share that had not changed since 1997 Source : Mounir BAATOUR, Le Droit de la concurrence Tunisien : doit-il être réformé ? www.fscpo.unict.it/EuroMed/Baatour.pdf; EIU Country Profiles ; IMF Country Reports and PIN, 97 and 98. Index of trade and foreign exchange system, 1990-2004 1 Widespread import and/or export controls or very limited legitimate access to foreign exchange. 2 Some liberalisation of import and/or export controls; almost full current account convertibility in principle, but with a foreign exchange regime that is not fully transparent (possibly with multiple exchange rates). 3 Removal of almost all quantitative and administrative import and export restrictions; almost full current account convertibility. 4 Removal of all quantitative and administrative import and export restrictions (apart from agriculture) and all significant export tariffs; insignificant direct involvement in exports and imports by ministries and state-owned trading companies; no major non-uniformity of customs duties for non-agricultural goods and services; full and current account convertibility. 4+ Standards and performance norms of advanced industrial economies: removal of most tariff barriers; membership in WTO. 47 Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Much remains to be done to rid the Algeria's trade regime from anomalies and to improve the operating environment for the private sector. Most importantly, a 1 range of exchange controls remain.. For example, 50% of all non-hydrocarbons export revenue must be surrendered by private exporters to Banque d'Algérie (the central bank)--all hydrocarbons export revenue must be given up. Individuals can buy foreign exchange, but are still not allowed to borrow in it. The supplementary budget of August 1990 granted businesses and individuals the right to hold foreign currency accounts. 1994 · In September 1994 the central bank introduced weekly fixing sessions at which local commercial banks could purchase hard currency, paving the way for the 2- 1 to 2- introduction of full convertibility. Local importers may now freely purchase goods abroad, bidding for hard currency in the local banking system, which so far has been able to meet demand. 2001 · In August 2001, the government moved to reduce and simplify its tariff regime. Consequently, the top tariff, which will apply to most goods, has been reduced to 30% from 40%. There are, in addition, two further rates: a "reduced rate" of 5% and an "intermediate rate" of 15%; certain categories of goods will not be subject 2 2- to 2 to any tariff. 2002 · The EU Association Agreement, was ratified in April 2002. It implies free trade between Algeria and the countries of the EU, to be in place by 2014 (12 years after 2+ 2 to 2+ the accord's ratification). During this transitional period import duties on EU industrial products will be gradually removed (25% following ratification of the treaty, 40% after a seven-year period, and the balance after 12 years). Sources: February 2005, IMF Country Report No. 05/52, Algeria: Selected Issues; May 2004, IMF Country Report No. 04/138, Algeria: Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on the following topics: Monetary and Financial Policy Transparency and Banking Supervision; EIU Country Profiles; IMF Country Reports. Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · Morocco has, since the early 1980s, been gradually implementing a programme of import liberalisation and in 1985 abolished the listed import scheme, under 1 which virtually all imports required a specific licence. The list of prohibited items has now been reduced to a handful of products 1991 · A new foreign trade code was approved by parliament in 1991, limiting the scope for state intervention and simplifying regulations. 1+ 1 to 1+ 1993 · Since 1993 the dirham has been convertible for current-account transactions, but capital movements remain restricted. 1995 · In January 1st 1995, Morocco became a WTO member. 2 1+ to 2 · Customs duties were restructured in line with World Trade Organization commitments to trade liberalisation. Customs duties were simplified in 1985 and again in 1995, when the number of bands was reduced to six (2.5%, 10%, 17.5%, 25%, 35% and 45%) from the previous eight bands (ranging from 0-45%). A minimum rate of 2.5% now applies. However tariffs remain high 1997 · In 1997 the four-nation European Free-Trade Association (EFTA--which covers Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) initialled a free-trade agreement with Morocco. The accord envisages the elimination of duties over a 12-year transition period from January 1998. 2+ 2 to 2+ 2000 · The Association Accord with the EU comes into force. The accord, one of several the EU has signed with its Mediterranean partners--including separate agreements on fisheries--will lead to free trade in industrial goods, with Morocco gradually dismantling tariffs and customs duties on industrial imports from the EU over a 12-year period (up to 2012), which started on March 1st 2000. Tariffs on capital goods imported from the EU were eliminated from 2000. 3- 2+ to 3+ 2002 · In 2002, Morroccan authorities eliminated the use of reference prices as recommended by the WTO. As a result, Morocco's rating in the trade restrictiveness index of the IMF changed from 8 to 5. 48 2003 · Morocco has been steadily implementing the terms of the Association Accord with the EU since it came into force on March 1st 2000. Tariffs on raw materials, spare parts and products without a local equivalent were removed in four stages up to 2003. From 2003 tariffs on imported goods that have a local equivalent began 3- n/a to be removed at a rate of 10 percentage points a year. · To protect local manufacturers, the government has maintained significant trade barriers. Although 97% of imports do not require prior licensing, and average tariff rates declined from 35.9% in 2000 to 26.5% in 2003, high top marginal tariff rates and non-tariff barriers continue to protect domestic markets. Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Le secteur des fruits et légumes frais au Maroc, 20 avril 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; Fiche de synthèse, Le marché des produits laitiers au Maroc, Actualisation au 22 juin 2004 MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; Fiche de synthèse, Le régime des importations au Maroc, Actualisation au 29 mars 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; EIU Country Report ; IMF Country Reports, PIN 1999 Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1993 · The government scrapped exchange controls from January 1993, making the dinar convertible for foreign investors, thus ending the need for them to seek 1+ 1 to 1+ authorisation from the Banque Centrale de Tunisie (BCT, the central bank) for all current-account transactions and for the repatriation of capital or profits. 1994 · Law n° 94-41 (March 7th 1994) was the end of the import licences system and introduced a significant liberalisation of imports. 2 1+ to 2 · In March 1994 an inter-bank foreign exchange market was opened, allowing banks to trade foreign currency at more flexible rates. 1995 · In July 1995 a 1976 cooperation agreement with the EU was replaced by a much wider-ranging Association Agreement. Under the agreement, Tunisian tariffs on 2 n/a European industrial exports will be dismantled over a 12-year period, which began on January 1, 1996, with capital and intermediate goods, and will be extended by 2000 to cover most consumer goods. Tariffs on goods which are produced uncompetitively in Tunisia (around 30% of the total) will be lifted over seven years beginning in 2000. 1996 · Significant trade barriers remain to non-EU products. Although 97% of imports do not require prior licensing, maximum tariff rates on a wide range of imports 2 n/a were raised from 40% to 250% in 1996. The government also uses non-tariff barriers to block imports, especially of non-capital goods. 1997 · In May 1997 the government allowed banks to trade foreign currencies with foreign financial institutions. Banks were also freed to enter the forward foreign- 2+ 2 to 2+ exchange market, although transactions are limited to 12 months for imports and nine months for exports. 2000 · The Association Accord with the EU comes into force. 3- 2+ to 3- 2003- 2004 · The government has undertaken a number of measures to boost exports by cutting the red tape hampering exporters. The measures include abolishing export duty, increasing the duration of export licences, simplifying paperwork, streamlining customs procedures and giving exporters better access to credit. 3- n/a Sources: Fiche de synthèse, Modalités de paiement des importations en Tunisie, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR.; Fiche de synthèse, Le régime des importations en Tunisie, Actualisation au 30 août 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR. ; EIU Country Profiles ; IMF Country Reports. Competition policy, 1990-2004 49 1 Little progress in commercialisation and regulation. Minimal private sector involvement and strong political interference in management decisions. Low tariffs, with extensive cross subsidisation. Liberalisation not envisaged, even for mobile telephony and value-added services. 2 Modest progress in commercialisation. Corporatisation of dominant operator and some separation from public sector governance, but tariffs are still politically set. 3 Substantial progress in commercialisation and regulation. Telecommunications and postal services fully separated, and cross-subsidies reduced. Considerable liberalisation in the mobile segment and in value-added services. 4 Complete commercialisation, including privatisation of the dominant operator, and comprehensive regulatory and institutional reforms. Extensive liberalisation of entry. 4+ Effective regulation through an independent entity. Coherent regulatory and institutional framework to deal with tariffs, interconnection rules, licensing, concession fees and spectrum allocation. Consumer ombudsman function. Algeria Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · 97 percent of businesses that employ fewer than 100 persons are typically opaque family-owned enterprises in the construction, trade and service sectors and more 1 than half were created under the command economy. 2002 · Reduction on entry restrictions - In January 2002 parliament passed an electricity and gas law, which ends the monopoly of the state firm, Sonelgaz, over the domestic power and gas markets. The law has cleared the way for liberalisation of the sector over the next three years, through opening electricity generation to full 2- 1 to 2- private competition. 2003 · Competition policy legislation - New ordinances issued in 2003 cover (i) international trade; (ii) the organization of free trade zones; (iii) various aspects of the protection of intellectual property in trade transactions; and (iv) competition. This was part of the modernization of the legislative framework in line with WTO 2- n/a rules, while pursuing negotiations towards Algeria's WTO accession. Sources: February 2005 IMF Country Report No. 05/68, Algeria: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes-- Fiscal Transparency Modul; May 2004, IMF Country Report No. 04/138, Algeria: Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on the following topics: Monetary and Financial Policy Transparency and Banking Supervisio; IMF Country Reports, including No. 05/50 Morocco Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1995 · The national carrier, Royal Air Maroc (RAM), is being restructured in preparation for privatisation. In 1995 the government confirmed that the airline's monopoly 1+ 1 to 1+ would be dismantled in favour of an open-skies policy. 1996 · Competition legislation - In 1996, a telecommunication law allowed for competition in all the segments of the market and set up an independent regulatory agency. 2- 1+ to 2- 1999 · Competition legislation - Law n°06-99 on freedom of prices and competition (came into force in July 6th 2001). - This law is in accordance to the principles of 2 2- to 2 transparency and non--discrimination and loyalty of the WTO. - Art 6 of the law forbids illegal agreements and abuse of market power Sources : Fiche de synthèse, Les télécommunications au Maroc, Actualisation au 6 décembre 2004, MINEFI-DREE/TRESOR ; IMF Country Profiles. Tunisia Year Description EBRD Change Index in Value 1990 · For 30 years after independence in 1956 economic policy centered on state ownership and protection from competition. Since 1986 the economy has changed from 1 one based mostly on state control to one based largely on market principles, albeit with significant government involvement in some areas. 1991 · Competition legislation introduced in Tunisia with the law n° 91-64 (July 29th, 1991). Introduced freedom of trade and industry. The law also forbids commercial 2- 1 to 2- arrangements (that limits competition). A competition commission was instituted to make sure the law is applied. The commission appeared to be under the Trade ministry authority. 1994 · Competiton policy legislation in banking- Legislation to increase competition, improve efficiency and bring the banking sector in line with international banking 2- n/a 50 norms was introduced in February 1994. The law sought to increase competition by allowing all banks to take on commercial, development and offshore functions; however, most have preferred to remain in their own niche markets. · The Code d'investissement unique was introduced in 1994, simplifying investment regulations for most sectors and offering fiscal incentives to investment. Investment procedures have been streamlined and all formalities can, in theory, be dealt with in one office, the guichet unique. 1995 · In order to improve the competition commission's autonomy and credibility, a new law was enforced in 1995 (Law of April 24th, 1995) and the Commission was renamed "Competition Council". It is a legal institution. 2 2- to 2 1999 · Law of May 10th, 1999 went to improve the Competition Council organisation. The law introduced a preliminary mechanism of control of concentrations. 2003 Lax enforcement - Few matters has been submitted to the "Competition Council" between 1995 and 2003 (about 40 times whereas more than 3000 breaches to the law are recorded each year). Sources : C.A.I.MED, Politiques pour les entreprises dans la Région Méditerraneénne ­ Tunisie, unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/ public/documents/CAIMED/UNPAN018863.pdf ; Mounir BAATOUR, Le Droit de la concurrence Tunisien : doit-il être réformé ?, www.fscpo.unict.it/EuroMed/Baatour.pdf; EIU Country Profiles ; IMF Country Reports. 51 STATISTICAL APPENDIX A. Annex to Chapter 1: Table A.1.1 Maghreb vs. comparators: regional market size, 1980-2004 share of World GDP share of World GDP (constant 2000 PPP), (constant 2000 USD), share of World (in percent) (in percent) population (%) region 1980 2004 1980 2004 1980 2004 ASEAN5 2.46 3.41 0.96 1.55 5.79 6.09 CEE 0.44 1.74 0.22 1.00 1.43 1.04 EU15 25.00 19.37 28.53 24.15 8.01 6.03 MGB 0.77 0.74 0.35 0.36 1.00 1.13 NAFTA 25.76 24.11 33.39 34.67 7.21 6.75 NAFTA=United States, Canada, Mexico; MGB= Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia); CEE = Central and European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republics, , Slovenia); ASEAN 5= Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore; EU-15=Spain, France, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Sweden and United Kingdom. Source: World Development Indicators, 2005. Table A.1.2 Overview of Trade Aspects of Maghreb Countries, 2004 Goods and services Trade Total Export Share GDP GDP per (US$ millions) openness (percent) (US$ capita Population ratio Countries WTO status millions) (US$) Exports Imports Oil Non-oil (millions) (percent) Algeria no 32.4 84649.0 2616.0 34070.2 21814.0 66.0 92.4 7.6 Tunisia 1990 9.9 28184.7 2837.6 13308.3 14099.1 92.5 7.0 93.0 Morocco 1987 29.8 50030.8 1677.5 16632.2 19859.8 72.4 2.7 97.3 Source: World Development Indicators, UN Comtrade, World Economic Outlook, 2005. Note: trade balance is the ratio of the sum of imports and exports to GDP Table A.1.3 Maghreb vs comparators: Service Exports (1993-2004) service exports % of transport (% of travel (% of service other (% of service total exports service exports) exports) exports) 1993 2004 1993 2004 1993 2004 1993 2004 MGB 23.7 23.9 14.3 13.5 40.1 37.6 45.6 48.9 CEE 25.0 14.4 26.6 20.5 30.2 34.5 43.2 45.0 EU15 25.7 30.6 22.0 20.9 31.5 25.0 46.5 54.1 ASEAN5 19.3 14.4 12.2 15.8 50.6 32.3 37.2 52.0 NAFTA 20.9 17.6 17.1 14.7 28.0 25.5 51.1 58.4 Source: WDI, 2005. Table A.1.4 Maghreb vs. comparators: Service Imports (1993-2004) service imports % of transport (% of travel (% of service other (% of service total imports service imports) imports) imports) 1993 2004 1993 2004 1993 2004 1993 2004 MGB 16.4 15.8 22.6 29.9 10.1 11.2 10.1 11.2 CEE 17.9 12.6 23.7 15.6 18.2 23.3 18.2 23.3 EU15 22.7 25.8 23.2 22.0 27.6 23.0 49.3 54.9 ASEAN5 18.0 18.9 39.9 27.9 15.9 14.1 44.2 58.0 NAFTA 18.5 15.4 26.7 19.4 38.1 28.9 35.2 51.7 Source: WDI, 2005. 52 Table A.1.5 Maghreb vs. comparators: FDI stock to GDP (in percent) MGB CEE EU15 1990 26.34356 16.4923 1995 32.67231 9.293433 21.35472 2000 31.07706 23.26072 35.77411 2004 44.24244 51.47004 62.46046 Source: WDI, 2005. Note: CEE=Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republic, Slovenia. Table A.1.6 Maghreb: FDI stock to GDP (in percent) Algeria Morocco Tunisia 1980 5.1 19.7 47.6 1985 3.9 18.3 55.5 1990 3.9 16.8 72.2 1995 4.1 23.4 80.3 2000 7.3 28.2 64.3 2004 11.4 45.0 77.8 Source: WDI, 2005. Table A.1.7: Direction of Maghreb Merchandise Export Trade, 1980-2004 Export Value (billions of USD) Export Share (%) Period 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Africa 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.40 0.18 0.05 0.01 0.00 Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.00 EU 10.8 10.1 13.4 15.5 26.1 62.40 71.99 72.61 68.36 69.10 EE, USSR 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17 0.24 0.07 0.06 0.34 MENA 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.42 3.12 5.28 4.23 3.43 Maghreb 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.44 1.48 2.35 1.57 1.21 United States 4.2 1.6 1.9 2.0 4.5 23.35 11.54 10.27 8.92 11.31 Others 2.1 1.8 2.2 4.2 6.1 12.12 12.83 11.68 18.40 15.83 World 17.5 14.0 18.5 22.7 38.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: Author's calculation using IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, 2005 Table A.1.8: Direction of Maghreb Merchandise Import Trade, 1980-2004 Import Value (billions of USD) Import Share (%) Period 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08 0.21 0.19 0.06 0.00 Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.07 0.24 0.12 0.02 0.00 European Union (EU) 11.7 10.4 14.3 17.2 23.2 64.70 64.91 64.34 62.55 63.59 Eastern Europe, USSR 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.15 0.88 0.39 0.13 0.08 MENA 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.4 2.3 5.52 4.47 6.51 5.33 6.28 Maghreb 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.51 1.42 2.15 1.24 1.38 United States 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 7.27 8.15 8.76 7.06 5.41 Others 3.8 3.4 4.4 6.8 9.1 21.19 21.15 19.69 24.86 24.64 World 18.1 16.1 22.2 27.4 36.5 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: Author's calculations using IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, 1980-2004 53 Table A.1.9: Maghreb Merchandise Trade with MENA, 1980-2004 Period (1900-84) (1985-99) (1990-94) (1995-99) (2000-04) (1900-84) (1985-99) (1990-94) (1995-99) (2000-04) (intra-regional exports, in millions of USD) (intra-regional imports, in millions of USD) MENA 245.5 436.4 972.6 941.4 1282.9 1009.4 716.0 1447.5 1448.0 2285.2 Maghreb 77.7 207.1 431.6 343.2 451.5 91.9 230.7 477.2 338.0 492.9 GCC 42.5 63.0 108.0 118.7 147.8 821.3 377.7 648.5 571.2 978.7 Selected Mashreq 29.7 31.5 75.1 105.9 275.3 71.8 51.1 165.6 264.4 394.3 Others 95.6 134.8 357.8 373.5 408.3 24.4 56.6 156.3 274.5 419.3 (intra-regional exports, as percent of world exports) (intra-regional imports, as percent of world imports) MENA 1.4 3.1 5.2 4.2 3.4 5.5 4.4 6.4 5.3 6.2 Maghreb 0.4 1.5 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.4 GCC 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 4.5 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.6 Selected Mashreq 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 Others 0.6 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 (intra-regional exports, as percent of MENA exports) (intra-regional imports, as percent of MENA imports) MENA 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Maghreb 31.2 49.9 44.5 35.7 35.5 9.6 33.4 32.8 23.0 22.0 GCC 18.2 15.0 11.0 12.9 11.7 80.2 51.3 45.0 39.6 42.6 Selected Mashreq 12.8 7.6 7.7 11.1 20.8 7.6 7.3 11.4 18.3 16.6 Others 37.8 27.5 36.8 40.4 32.1 2.7 7.9 10.8 19.1 18.8 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Note: Country groups are: Maghreb : Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia; GCC : Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabic, UAE; Selected Mashreq countries: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria; Other countries: Mauritania, Djibouti, Yemen Table A.1.10: Product Concentration and Diversification Indices No. of Diversification Concentration Exporter year products Index Index exports Algeria 1980 43 0.48 0.82 1990 87 0.63 0.57 2004 106 0.71 0.63 Morocco 1980 100 0.51 0.32 1990 148 0.61 0.16 2004 180 0.66 0.16 Tunisia 1980 126 0.58 0.48 1990 137 0.62 0.31 2004 188 0.62 0.18 Maghreb 1980 90 0.53 0.54 Average 1990 137 0.62 0.31 2004 158 0.66 0.32 CEE - Average 1993 218 0.43 0.08 2004 224 0.42 0.11 EU15 1980 222 0.41 0.10 Average 1990 226 0.40 0.10 2004 230 0.37 0.11 ASEAN5 1980 181 0.62 0.30 Average 1990 207 0.56 0.21 2004 223 0.48 0.21 NAFTA 1980 225 0.44 0.07 Average 1990 227 0.41 0.17 2004 233 0.33 0.11 Source: Authors' calculation based on UNCTAD Concentration Database. Table A.1.11: Product Composition of Maghreb's Intra-regional and Extra-Regional Exports Animal & Machinery and Misc. Food & Live Beverages & Crude Minerals & Chemicals and Manufactured Vegetable Fat Transport Manufactures reporter year Animals (0) Tobacco (1) Materials (2) Fuels (3) (4) Material (5) Goods (6) Equipment (7) (8) MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW MGB ROW Algeria 1990 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 85.9 96.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6 8.2 1.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 2000 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 84.9 97.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 1.6 8.8 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 2004 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.3 76.0 97.6 0.0 0.0 6.8 1.3 14.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 Morocco 1990 16.0 25.3 0.0 0.1 10.7 16.6 6.9 3.1 0.0 1.1 10.7 19.8 37.3 8.7 13.1 4.8 5.3 20.5 2000 8.5 21.4 0.0 0.1 17.9 9.3 17.7 3.3 0.0 0.1 16.4 12.0 32.4 6.5 4.3 11.1 2.8 36.1 2004 14.5 18.0 0.0 0.2 10.0 8.6 9.2 1.3 3.8 0.9 24.5 15.2 25.5 6.7 6.2 14.4 6.2 34.6 Tunisia 1990 11.1 6.6 1.3 0.4 0.8 2.4 0.0 17.9 0.0 3.6 18.8 14.3 51.9 10.3 13.1 7.7 2.8 36.7 2000 4.7 4.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.1 0.1 12.1 2.5 3.7 28.3 10.1 32.4 9.2 25.0 13.1 5.8 44.8 2004 11.9 4.3 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.1 9.8 2.7 6.1 21.4 8.6 40.5 9.6 17.2 16.8 3.8 42.6 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade using SITC Rev 2 at 1 digit level. MGB=share of intra-Maghreb trade (percent), ROW=share of rest of the world trade (in percent). 54 Table A.1.12: Factor Intensity of Merchandise Exports, 1996 & 2004 Share of total exports (%) 1990 2004 Change, 1990-2004 (%) Natural Unskilled Capital- Skilled Natural Unskilled Capital- Skilled Natural Unskilled Capital- Skilled resources labor intenstive labor resources labor intenstive labor resources labor intenstive labor Algeria 97.7 0.5 1.0 0.8 98.0 0.0 1.6 0.4 0.2 -95.4 58.9 -46.4 Morocco 49.5 24.9 22.8 2.9 31.4 35.9 29.2 3.5 -36.6 44.1 28.2 23.4 Tunisia 35.7 37.6 21.3 5.5 24.4 43.5 24.7 7.5 -31.7 15.6 16.1 36.5 Source: Authors' computation based on UN Comtrade. Table A.1.13: Factor Intensity of Merchandise Imports, 1996 & 2004. Share of total imports (%) 1990 2004 Change, 1990-2004 (%) Natural Unskilled Capital- Skilled Natural Unskilled Capital- Skilled Natural Unskilled Capital- Skilled resources labor intenstive labor resources labor intenstive labor resources labor intenstive labor Algeria 33.5 2.9 41.6 22.0 27.8 4.2 42.3 25.6 -16.9 45.5 1.8 16.3 Morocco 40.5 10.1 31.7 17.7 33.1 16.0 31.7 19.2 -18.3 58.3 0.0 8.8 Tunisia 30.4 20.6 31.4 17.5 21.8 22.5 35.3 20.3 -28.3 9.3 12.4 16.0 Source: Authors' computation based on UN Comtrade. Table A.1.14 Maghreb: Share of Dynamic Products in Non-Oil Exports (%) Annual Growth Non-oil Export (%) Share(%) 1980 158.49 66.32 1990 150.42 39.21 2004 136.76 52.54 Source: Authors' computation based on UN Comtrade. Table A.1.15 Maghreb: Country Frequency for Dynamic Non-Oil Products 1980-89 1990-99 2000-2004 Algeria 15 27 35 Morocco 57 68 83 Tunisia 44 58 74 Maghreb 116 153 192 Source: Authors' computation based on UN Comtrade. Table A.1.16: Export Specialization Indices, 1990 and 2004 Tunisia Algeria Morocco Maghreb ROW Maghreb ROW Maghreb ROW 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 Food and live animals (0) 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.4 3.4 3.4 Beverages and tobacco (1) 2.8 4.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 Crude materials,inedible,except fuel (2) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 2.1 3.4 3.6 2.7 Mineral fuels,lubricants and related materials (3) 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.2 22.6 14.5 11.8 12.4 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.6 Animal and vegetable oils,fats and waxes (4) 0.0 1.7 9.1 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 2.7 2.3 Chemicals and related products (5) 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 2.5 2.2 1.1 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials (6) 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.5 Machinery and transport equipment (7) 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 Miscellaneous manufactured articles (8) 0.5 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 1.6 2.8 Source: Authors' calculation using UN Comtrade with SITC Rev 2. at 1 digit level. 55 Table A.1.17 Algeria: 30 Largest Exports to the World Value of Exports Percent of total (USD million) Exports (%) SITC Product Description 1990 2004 1990 2004 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils obt.from b 5385.4 17600.0 49.0 54.8 3413 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 2040.0 6736.2 18.5 21.0 3414 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 911.4 4258.6 8.3 13.3 3343 Gas oils 802.7 7.3 0.0 3344 Fuel oils,n.e.s. 722.4 6.6 0.0 3341 Motor spirit and other light oils 704.6 6.4 0.0 3342 Kerosene and other medium oils 37.3 0.3 0.0 6712 Pig iron,cast iron and spiegeleisen 34.0 17.9 0.3 0.1 6861 Zinc and zinc alloys,unwrought 27.9 25.4 0.3 0.1 1121 Wine of fresh grapes (including gra 23.1 4.5 0.2 0.0 5334 Varnishes and lacquers;distempers,w 20.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 7415 Air conditioning mach.self-containe 18.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 17.2 14.6 0.2 0.0 3354 Petroleum bitumen,petrol.coke & bit 15.2 0.1 0.0 5225 Oth.inorg.bases & metallic oxid.,hy 13.5 104.7 0.1 0.3 7752 Household type refrigerators & food 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 6521 Cotton fabrics,woven,unbleached,not 12.4 0.1 0.0 7283 Mach.for sorting,screening,separati 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5621 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,nit 9.9 39.6 0.1 0.1 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 8.6 70.7 0.1 0.2 2713 Natural calcium phosphat.,natur.alu 8.5 18.3 0.1 0.1 5112 Cyclic hydrocarbons 7.9 0.1 0.0 6542 Fabrics,woven,contain.85% of wool/f 7.5 0.1 0.0 5121 Acyclic alcohols & their halogenate 7.3 18.6 0.1 0.1 6727 Iron or steel coils for re-rolling 6.5 0.1 0.0 7234 Construction and mining machinery,n 6.4 0.1 0.0 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach.merceri 6.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 7431 Air pumps,vacuum pumps & compressor 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 6531 Fabrics,woven of continuous synth.t 5.3 0.0 0.0 6330 Cork manufactures 5.1 11.8 0.0 0.0 Total Share (percent) 99.1 90.1 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 56 Table A.1.18 Algeria: 50 Largest Exports to the World Exports to Maghreb Exports to ROW Exports to Maghreb (1990) (1990) (2004) Exports to ROW (2004) RCA Index Value (mils Share in Value (mils Share in Value (mils Share in Value (mils Share in USD) Total USD) Total USD) Total USD) Total 1990 2004 SITC Product Name Exports (%) Exports (%) Exports (%) Exports (%) 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils obt.from b 0.00 0.00 5385.39 48.91 0.00 0.00 17600.00 54.77 11.1 16.9 3413 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 38.76 0.35 2001.28 18.18 158.15 0.49 6578.04 20.50 45.2 50.0 3414 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 148.19 1.35 763.24 6.93 116.40 0.36 4142.22 12.91 28.3 15.9 3352 Mineral tars and products of their 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.01 0.00 0.00 250.06 0.78 0.1 8.5 5225 Oth.inorg.bases & metallic oxid.,hy 2.75 0.02 10.74 0.10 16.80 0.05 87.93 0.27 1.0 3.6 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 0.63 0.01 7.98 0.07 40.54 0.13 30.11 0.09 0.3 0.6 2820 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 0.06 0.00 0.57 0.01 0.47 0.00 63.29 0.20 0.0 0.7 5621 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,nit 0.00 0.00 9.89 0.09 7.36 0.02 32.28 0.10 0.9 1.4 6861 Zinc and zinc alloys,unwrought 14.17 0.13 13.75 0.12 5.92 0.02 19.52 0.06 2.4 1.4 5221 Chemical elements 0.20 0.00 2.17 0.02 0.09 0.00 24.37 0.08 0.3 1.0 2882 Other non-ferrous base metal waste 0.01 0.00 4.43 0.04 2.49 0.01 18.69 0.06 0.3 0.5 5121 Acyclic alcohols & their halogenate 0.00 0.00 7.31 0.07 0.00 0.00 18.58 0.06 0.4 0.3 2713 Natural calcium phosphat.,natur.alu 0.00 0.00 8.49 0.08 0.00 0.00 18.29 0.06 2.5 4.3 6712 Pig iron,cast iron and spiegeleisen 0.04 0.00 33.93 0.31 0.00 0.00 17.93 0.06 9.8 1.3 7915 Rail&tramway freight and maintenanc 0.00 0.00 3.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 17.39 0.05 1.1 1.8 0579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 0.22 0.00 16.94 0.15 0.24 0.00 14.33 0.04 0.9 0.3 6330 Cork manufactures 0.00 0.00 5.13 0.05 0.06 0.00 11.74 0.04 1.9 2.0 6115 Sheep and lamb skin leather 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.83 0.00 9.11 0.03 0.0 2.3 0360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.28 0.00 8.70 0.03 0.0 0.1 4249 Fixed vegetable oils,n.e.s 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.41 0.02 1.4 723 Cocoa butter and cocoa paste 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.31 0.02 0.5 7821 Motor vehicles for transport of goo 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.22 0.02 0.0 0.0 0223 Milk & cream,fresh,not concentrated 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.00 4.76 0.01 0.2 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00 4.76 0.01 2.2 5232 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.98 0.02 0.2 3222 Other coal,whether/not pulverized,n 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.58 0.01 0.0 1121 Wine of fresh grapes (including gra 0.18 0.00 22.95 0.21 0.00 0.00 4.51 0.01 0.8 0.1 6725 Blooms,billets,slabs & sheet bars o 0.25 0.00 0.99 0.01 3.11 0.01 0.62 0.00 0.1 0.0 7831 Public-service type passenger motor 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.16 0.01 0.1 6252 Tyres,pneumat.,new,of a kind used o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.98 0.01 0.1 4313 Fatty acids,acid oils,and residues 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 2.88 0.01 0.4 7239 Parts of the machinery of 723.41 to 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.05 0.00 2.77 0.01 0.0 0.0 6954 Interchangeable tools for hand & ma 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.73 0.01 0.0 0.0 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.00 2.66 0.01 0.0 0.0 6783 Other tubes and pipes,of iron or st 1.93 0.02 2.72 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.64 0.01 0.2 0.0 1110 Non alcoholic beverages,n.e.s. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 2.50 0.01 0.1 6782 seamlesstubes and pipes;blanks fo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.45 0.01 0.0 0.1 6744 Sheets & plates,rolled >4.75mm of i 0.00 0.00 1.44 0.01 0.00 0.00 2.45 0.01 0.1 0.0 548 Vegetable products,roots & tubers,f 0.10 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.47 0.00 1.97 0.01 0.0 0.5 8741 Surveying,hydrographic,compasses et 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 2.22 0.01 0.1 8922 Newspapers journals,periodicals 0.00 0.00 3.38 0.03 0.00 0.00 1.91 0.01 0.3 0.1 0460 Meal and flour of wheat and flour o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.68 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.2 615 Molasses,whether or not decolourize 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 1.68 0.01 1.0 6421 Boxes,bags & oth.packing containers 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.82 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.0 0.0 2112 Calf skins,raw (fresh,salted,dried, 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.49 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.4 0545 Other fresh or chilled vegetables 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.55 0.00 0.0 0.0 6412 Printing paper & writing paper,in r 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.39 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.0 6960 Cutlery 0.02 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.48 0.00 0.0 0.1 7149 Parts of the engines & motors of 71 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.01 0.00 0.00 1.39 0.00 0.0 0.0 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.02 0.00 0.56 0.01 0.80 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.1 0.1 Total 207.55 1.88 8310.29 75.47 360.08 1.12 29044.56 90.44 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade. 57 Table A.1.19 Algeria: Exports to the Maghreb Exports to Maghreb (1990) Exports to Maghreb (2004) RCA RCA (Maghreb Market) (World Market) Share of Share of Value (mils Share of Share of Value (mils Regional Total Regional Total 1990 2004 1990 2004 USD) USD) Exports Exports SITC Product Name Exports (%) Exports (%) (%) (%) 3413 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 38.76 17.67 0.35 158.15 40.93 0.49 175.2 85.1 45.2 50.0 3414 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 148.19 67.54 1.35 116.40 30.12 0.36 292.4 265.8 28.3 15.9 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 0.63 0.29 0.01 40.54 10.49 0.13 4.1 90.3 0.3 0.6 5225 Oth.inorg.bases & metallic oxid.,hy 2.75 1.25 0.02 16.80 4.35 0.05 16.7 50.8 1.0 3.6 5621 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,nit 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.36 1.90 0.02 0.0 28.8 0.9 1.4 6861 Zinc and zinc alloys,unwrought 14.17 6.46 0.13 5.92 1.53 0.02 188.7 63.7 2.4 1.4 6725 Blooms,billets,slabs & sheet bars o 0.25 0.11 0.00 3.11 0.80 0.01 0.7 2.2 0.1 0.0 2882 Other non-ferrous base metal waste 0.01 0.00 0.00 2.49 0.64 0.01 1.7 157.5 0.3 0.5 0460 Meal and flour of wheat and flour o 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.68 0.44 0.01 0.0 50.3 0.0 0.2 2112 Calf skins,raw (fresh,salted,dried, 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.49 0.39 0.00 0.0 166.8 0.0 0.4 6412 Printing paper & writing paper,in r 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.39 0.36 0.00 0.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 6115 Sheep and lamb skin leather 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.83 0.21 0.00 1.0 14.6 0.0 2.3 6421 Boxes,bags & oth.packing containers 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.21 0.00 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.80 0.21 0.00 1.6 9.8 0.1 0.1 5822 Aminoplasts 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.19 0.00 0.0 28.6 0.0 0.1 8931 Art.for the conveyance or packing o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.71 0.18 0.00 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 8122 Sinks,wash basins,bidets,water clos 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.18 0.00 0.0 8.4 0.9 0.1 6428 Art.of paper pulp,paper,paperboard, 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.18 0.00 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 6114 Leather of other bovine cattle and 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.17 0.00 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0548 Vegetable products,roots & tubers,f 0.10 0.04 0.00 0.47 0.12 0.00 37.2 10.1 0.0 0.5 Total 204.89 93.38 1.86 361.75 93.62 1.13 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade. 58 Table A.1.20 Morocco: 30 Largest Exports to the World Value of Exports Percent of total (USD million) Exports (%) SITC Product Description 1990 2004 1990 2004 2713 Natural calcium phosphat.,natur.alu 437.0 421.0 10.3 4.2 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 390.3 106.2 9.2 1.1 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 348.2 715.6 8.2 7.2 360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 213.3 300.6 5.0 3.0 571 Oranges,mandarins,clementines and o 169.3 251.9 4.0 2.5 8423 Trousers,breeches etc.of textile fa 145.2 438.2 3.4 4.4 371 Fish,prepared or preserved,n.e.s. i 141.9 355.4 3.4 3.6 3341 Motor spirit and other light oils 125.5 3.0 0.0 341 Fish,fresh(live/dead)or chilled,exc 114.6 110.8 2.7 1.1 7763 Diodes,transistors and sim.semi-con 109.6 623.0 2.6 6.3 565 Vegetables,prepared or preserved,n. 106.7 130.3 2.5 1.3 8429 Other outer garments of textile fab 86.1 160.2 2.0 1.6 8510 Footwear 78.6 161.7 1.9 1.6 8441 Shirts,men's,of textile fabrics 75.7 138.9 1.8 1.4 8462 Under garments,knitted of cotton 66.3 268.9 1.6 2.7 8459 Other outer garments & clothing,kni 61.0 171.5 1.4 1.7 8439 Other outer garments of textile fab 54.9 598.9 1.3 6.0 6592 Carpets,carpeting and rugs,knotted 51.8 14.4 1.2 0.1 585 Juices;fruit & veget.(incl.grape mu 50.1 1.2 1.2 0.0 2517 Chemical wood pulp,soda or sulphate 49.9 40.5 1.2 0.4 8452 Dresses,skirts,suits etc,knitted or 49.3 30.2 1.2 0.3 342 Fish,frozen (excluding fillets) 48.4 31.4 1.1 0.3 6851 Lead and lead alloys,unwrought 48.1 17.5 1.1 0.2 544 Tomatoes,fresh or chilled 47.3 113.0 1.1 1.1 8451 Jerseys,pull-overs,twinsets,cardiga 46.0 210.7 1.1 2.1 8481 Art.of apparel & clothing accessori 44.5 27.7 1.1 0.3 4235 Olive oil 41.2 55.7 1.0 0.6 6513 Cotton yarn 35.6 11.8 0.8 0.1 8422 Suits,men's,of textile fabrics 33.0 47.0 0.8 0.5 2871 Copper ores & concentrates;copper m 32.0 7.8 0.8 0.1 Total Share (percent) 78.0 56.1 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 59 Table A.1.21 Morocco: 50 Largest Exports to the World Exports to Maghreb Exports to ROW Exports to Maghreb Exports to ROW (1990) (1990) (2004) (2004) RCA Index Share in Share in Share in Share in Value (mils Total Value (mils Total Value (mils Total Value (mils Total USD) Exports USD) Exports USD) 1990 2004 Exports USD) Exports SITC Product Name (%) (%) (%) (%) 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.00 0.00 348.18 8.27 3.86 0.04 711.73 7.22 115.1 123.9 7763 Diodes,transistors and sim.semi-con 0.00 0.00 109.56 2.60 0.00 0.00 623.01 6.32 11.4 13.5 8439 Other outer garments of textile fab 0.01 0.00 54.91 1.30 0.00 0.00 598.89 6.07 3.6 16.0 8423 Trousers,breeches etc.of textile fa 1.51 0.04 143.67 3.41 0.22 0.00 437.94 4.44 14.9 20.0 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 0.77 0.02 22.75 0.54 0.88 0.01 422.30 4.28 1.5 7.8 2713 Natural calcium phosphat.,natur.alu 0.00 0.00 437.00 10.37 0.00 0.00 420.97 4.27 340.2 318.8 0371 Fish,prepared or preserved,n.e.s. i 0.00 0.00 141.93 3.37 0.60 0.01 353.98 3.59 30.2 41.9 5629 Fertilizers,n.e.s. 0.00 0.00 20.76 0.49 0.00 0.00 325.14 3.30 6.2 49.9 0360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 0.00 0.00 213.27 5.06 0.00 0.00 300.56 3.05 16.1 16.0 8462 Under garments,knitted of cotton 0.00 0.00 66.28 1.57 0.01 0.00 268.92 2.73 6.4 9.1 0571 Oranges,mandarins,clementines and o 4.09 0.10 165.18 3.92 0.00 0.00 251.93 2.56 52.6 44.1 3352 Mineral tars and products of their 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 246.98 2.50 27.3 8451 Jerseys,pull-overs,twinsets,cardiga 0.00 0.00 45.96 1.09 0.00 0.00 210.67 2.14 2.9 6.4 8459 Other outer garments & clothing,kni 0.12 0.00 60.85 1.44 0.00 0.00 171.49 1.74 3.9 4.6 8465 Corsets,brassieres,suspendres and t 0.00 0.00 0.97 0.02 0.02 0.00 162.29 1.65 0.5 21.3 8463 Under garments,knitted,of synthetic 0.01 0.00 1.62 0.04 0.00 0.00 162.15 1.64 0.4 13.1 8510 Footwear 0.07 0.00 78.58 1.87 0.04 0.00 161.64 1.64 2.1 2.8 8431 Coats and jackets of textile fabric 0.00 0.00 4.74 0.11 0.00 0.00 160.55 1.63 0.9 15.0 8429 Other outer garments of textile fab 0.01 0.00 86.07 2.04 0.00 0.00 160.18 1.62 14.2 13.1 7721 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f 0.28 0.01 9.34 0.22 0.00 0.00 155.23 1.57 0.3 1.4 8434 Skirts,women's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 13.51 0.32 0.00 0.00 148.34 1.50 4.1 23.0 8441 Shirts,men's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 75.70 1.80 0.00 0.00 138.91 1.41 10.2 12.1 0565 Vegetables,prepared or preserved,n. 0.00 0.00 106.74 2.53 0.05 0.00 130.24 1.32 20.4 12.6 0545 Other fresh or chilled vegetables 0.02 0.00 8.05 0.19 0.00 0.00 119.65 1.21 1.1 7.1 8435 Blouses of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 7.89 0.19 0.00 0.00 116.58 1.18 1.2 13.2 0544 Tomatoes,fresh or chilled 0.00 0.00 47.33 1.12 0.00 0.00 112.95 1.15 18.3 21.7 0341 Fish,fresh(live/dead)or chilled,exc 0.00 0.00 114.63 2.72 0.00 0.00 110.85 1.12 18.8 11.2 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 0.00 0.00 390.29 9.26 0.00 0.00 106.24 1.08 321.3 152.3 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 0.00 0.00 3.25 0.08 8.93 0.09 83.03 0.84 0.3 2.6 2820 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 0.00 0.00 8.55 0.20 0.07 0.00 85.22 0.86 1.3 3.2 6123 Parts of footwear 0.01 0.00 17.01 0.40 0.01 0.00 67.78 0.69 4.2 10.3 6899 Base metals,n.e.s.and cermets,unwro 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 67.79 0.69 14.3 8433 Dresses,women's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 2.36 0.06 0.00 0.00 64.13 0.65 0.8 16.3 4235 Olive oil 0.00 0.00 41.17 0.98 0.00 0.00 55.70 0.56 19.5 10.7 0579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 0.00 0.00 2.22 0.05 0.03 0.00 53.02 0.54 0.3 3.8 0240 Cheese and curd 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.20 0.00 48.38 0.49 0.0 2.6 2929 Other materials of vegetable origin 0.05 0.00 21.65 0.51 0.00 0.00 48.35 0.49 11.1 13.9 8422 Suits,men's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 32.96 0.78 0.00 0.00 46.99 0.48 14.4 8.3 7849 Other parts & accessories of motor 2.77 0.07 22.36 0.53 0.34 0.00 44.99 0.46 0.2 0.2 2882 Other non-ferrous base metal waste 0.00 0.00 10.38 0.25 0.00 0.00 42.79 0.43 1.6 3.2 2517 Chemical wood pulp,soda or sulphate 8.90 0.21 41.04 0.97 6.25 0.06 34.23 0.35 3.2 2.2 2875 Zinc ores and concentrates 0.00 0.00 12.61 0.30 0.00 0.00 38.69 0.39 3.7 13.2 6342 Plywood consisting of sheets of woo 0.01 0.00 9.93 0.24 0.04 0.00 38.32 0.39 1.4 4.3 8424 Jackets,blazers of textile fabrics 0.01 0.00 11.75 0.28 0.00 0.00 37.62 0.38 3.3 8.8 6811 Silver,unwrought,unworked or semi-m 0.28 0.01 23.01 0.55 0.00 0.00 37.59 0.38 7.8 6.1 2919 Other materials of animal origin, n 0.00 0.00 4.53 0.11 0.00 0.00 35.01 0.36 1.6 7.1 0548 Vegetable products,roots & tubers,f 0.00 0.00 12.93 0.31 0.00 0.00 31.95 0.32 6.3 21.1 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach.merceri 0.69 0.02 5.29 0.13 0.10 0.00 31.63 0.32 0.4 1.1 0342 Fish,frozen (excluding fillets) 0.00 0.00 48.36 1.15 0.94 0.01 30.42 0.31 6.8 2.4 8452 Dresses,skirts,suits etc,knitted or 0.01 0.00 49.33 1.17 0.00 0.00 30.21 0.31 18.1 7.2 Total 19.62 0.47 3156.47 74.93 22.59 0.23 8344.12 84.63 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade. 60 Table A.1.22 Morocco: Exports to the Maghreb Exports to Maghreb (1990) Exports to Maghreb (2004) RCA RCA (Maghreb Market) (World Market) Share of Share of Share of Share of Value Regional Total Value Regional Total (mils Exports Exports (mils Exports Exports 1990 2004 1990 2004 USD) USD) SITC Product Name (%) (%) (%) (%) 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.93 8.87 0.09 0.01 64.71 0.25 2.57 5542 Organic surface-active agents,n.e.s 0.01 0.01 0.00 7.93 7.88 0.08 0.18 90.34 0.47 0.83 2517 Chemical wood pulp,soda or sulphate 8.90 7.46 0.21 6.25 6.21 0.06 155.17 155.24 3.18 2.15 5417 Medicaments(including veterinary me 9.91 8.32 0.24 5.62 5.58 0.06 15.84 3.92 0.77 0.09 6851 Lead and lead alloys,unwrought 4.17 3.49 0.10 5.24 5.21 0.05 321.97 517.31 32.55 7.61 712 Extracts,essences/concent.of coffee 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.09 4.06 0.04 0.00 354.08 0.00 5.04 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.86 3.83 0.04 0.49 153.60 115.11 123.94 4236 Sunflower seed oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.75 3.73 0.04 0.00 37.13 0.00 5.33 2785 Quartz,mica,felspar,fluorspar,cryol 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.73 2.71 0.03 0.00 250.88 19.78 14.69 7810 Passenger motor cars,for transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.44 2.42 0.02 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.01 542 Beans,peas,lentils & other legumino 7.11 5.97 0.17 2.37 2.36 0.02 89.68 25.25 4.21 2.26 6732 Bars & rods,of iron/steel;hollow mi 0.01 0.01 0.00 2.36 2.34 0.02 0.03 3.73 0.00 0.29 6115 Sheep and lamb skin leather 0.11 0.09 0.00 1.91 1.90 0.02 13.14 109.71 0.95 6.52 5121 Acyclic alcohols & their halogenate 0.37 0.31 0.01 1.84 1.82 0.02 39.69 92.34 0.11 0.11 620 Sugar confectionery and other sugar 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.79 1.78 0.02 0.00 55.07 0.17 0.67 980 Edible products and preparations n. 5.23 4.39 0.12 1.47 1.46 0.01 169.51 12.50 0.54 0.49 6428 Art.of paper pulp,paper,paperboard, 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 1.40 0.01 0.00 16.22 0.03 0.25 8122 Sinks,wash basins,bidets,water clos 2.01 1.68 0.05 1.31 1.30 0.01 142.95 51.16 2.84 7.86 5834 Polyvinyl chloride 0.72 0.61 0.02 1.05 1.04 0.01 20.64 9.93 0.09 0.46 619 Other sugars;sugar syrups;artificia 0.05 0.04 0.00 1.04 1.03 0.01 16.62 97.32 0.06 0.48 5530 Perfumery,cosmetics and toilet prep 0.07 0.06 0.00 1.03 1.02 0.01 2.08 4.81 0.97 0.09 342 Fish,frozen (excluding fillets) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.93 0.01 0.00 28.30 6.82 2.40 8471 Clothing accessories of textile fab 0.07 0.06 0.00 0.92 0.91 0.01 3.66 2.28 0.62 2.77 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 0.77 0.65 0.02 0.88 0.87 0.01 6.28 2.11 1.54 7.79 615 Molasses,whether or not decolourize 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.87 0.86 0.01 0.00 135.49 9.13 14.23 6746 Sheets & plates,rolled;thickness of 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.86 0.01 0.00 10.06 0.00 0.08 7643 Radiotelegraphic & radiotelephonic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.80 0.01 0.00 1.02 0.04 0.01 6252 Tyres,pneumat.,new,of a kind used o 0.12 0.10 0.00 0.74 0.74 0.01 1.26 6.11 0.43 0.42 6638 Manufactures of asbestos; friction 0.74 0.62 0.02 0.71 0.70 0.01 78.60 106.60 2.18 3.18 8983 Gramophone records and sim.sound re 0.24 0.20 0.01 0.69 0.68 0.01 7.39 5.37 0.02 0.17 8211 Chairs and other seats and parts 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 0.68 0.01 0.00 10.43 0.09 0.25 6353 Builders' carpentry and joinery 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.67 0.66 0.01 0.24 8.24 0.10 0.17 8931 Art.for the conveyance or packing o 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.01 1.19 3.99 0.09 0.13 371 Fish,prepared or preserved,n.e.s. i 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.01 0.00 29.16 30.25 41.93 5416 Glycosides;glands or other organs & 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.55 0.54 0.01 0.20 5.10 0.03 0.21 6413 Kraft paper and paperboard,in rolls 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.54 0.01 0.00 4.38 0.00 0.09 5823 Alkyds and other polyesters 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.53 0.01 0.00 3.17 0.04 0.03 7781 Batteries and accumulators and part 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.53 0.01 0.00 8.41 0.03 0.05 5921 Starches,inulin and wheat gluten 0.19 0.16 0.00 0.50 0.49 0.01 49.27 77.54 0.24 0.32 8219 Other furniture and parts 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.49 0.01 0.03 3.05 0.08 0.49 8124 Lighting fixtures and fittings and 0.12 0.10 0.00 0.48 0.48 0.00 3.68 7.35 0.69 0.62 5419 Pharmaceutical goods,other than med 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.47 0.00 0.00 9.09 0.07 0.18 2789 Minerals,crude, n.e.s. 0.25 0.21 0.01 0.46 0.46 0.00 17.50 35.93 8.78 7.43 5836 Acrylic polymers,methacrylic polyme 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 1.54 9.35 0.01 0.06 484 Bakery products (e.g.,bread,biscuit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.38 0.00 0.00 12.07 0.05 0.10 6632 Natural or artificial abrasive powd 0.55 0.46 0.01 0.37 0.37 0.00 116.76 32.58 1.05 1.32 488 Malt extract;prep.of flour etc,for 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.36 0.00 0.00 5.25 0.00 0.09 7849 Other parts & accessories of motor 2.77 2.32 0.07 0.34 0.34 0.00 4.78 0.39 0.24 0.19 5514 Mixtures of two or more odoriferous 0.91 0.77 0.02 0.31 0.31 0.00 24.94 3.48 0.34 0.03 7284 Mach.& appliances for spezialized p 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.31 0.30 0.00 0.19 0.52 0.04 0.02 Total 45.54 38.20 1.08 85.45 84.87 0.87 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade. 61 Table A.1.23 Tunisia: 30 Largest Exports to the World Value of Exports Percent of total (USD million) Exports (%) SITC Product Description 1990 2004 1990 2004 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils 521.4 751.6 14.9 7.8 8423 Trousers,breeches etc.of textile fa 341.7 729.1 9.8 7.5 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers 245.5 156.5 7.0 1.6 8429 Other outer garments of textile fab 158.6 644.4 4.5 6.7 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 139.8 181.8 4.0 1.9 4235 Olive oil 121.2 578.5 3.5 6.0 8439 Other outer garments of textile fab 110.2 624.7 3.1 6.5 8459 Other outer garments & clothing,kni 95.3 147.4 2.7 1.5 360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 78.4 83.9 2.2 0.9 3341 Motor spirit and other light oils 76.1 2.2 0.0 8441 Shirts,men's,of textile fabrics 73.9 105.3 2.1 1.1 6612 Portland cement,ciment fondu,slag 67.1 43.3 1.9 0.4 8462 Under garments,knitted of cotton 61.2 227.8 1.7 2.4 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars 58.6 405.2 1.7 4.2 8434 Skirts,women's,of textile fabrics 52.1 62.2 1.5 0.6 579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 51.5 94.1 1.5 1.0 6123 Parts of footwear 49.6 162.6 1.4 1.7 7721 Elect.app.such as switches,relays 48.6 413.9 1.4 4.3 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach 45.6 55.9 1.3 0.6 8431 Coats and jackets of textile fabric 45.3 55.2 1.3 0.6 5232 Metallic salts and peroxysalts 36.9 84.1 1.1 0.9 8452 Dresses,skirts,suits etc,knitted 34.2 9.1 1.0 0.1 5231 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 33.3 29.3 1.0 0.3 8465 Corsets,brassieres,suspendres 29.8 205.2 0.9 2.1 341 Fish,fresh(live/dead)or chilled 26.6 26.2 0.8 0.3 8510 Footwear 23.8 264.5 0.7 2.7 7849 Other parts & accessories of motor 22.3 160.6 0.6 1.7 8435 Blouses of textile fabrics 21.9 40.1 0.6 0.4 7788 Other elect.machinery and equipment 20.2 75.8 0.6 0.8 8842 Spectacles and spectacle frames 19.8 0.1 0.6 0.0 Total Share (percent) 77.5 66.3 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 62 Table A.1.24 Tunisia: 50 Largest Exports to the World Exports to Maghreb Exports to ROW Exports to Maghreb Exports to ROW RCA Index (1990) (1990) (2004) (2004) Share in Share in Share in Share in Value (mils Total Value (mils Total Value (mils Total Value (mils Total 1990 2004 USD) Exports USD) Exports USD) Exports USD) Exports SITC Product Name (%) (%) (%) (%) 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils obt.from b 0.00 0.00 521.40 14.98 0.00 0.00 751.60 7.76 3.4 2.4 8423 Trousers,breeches etc.of textile fa 0.00 0.00 341.72 9.82 0.00 0.00 729.10 7.53 42.5 33.9 8429 Other outer garments of textile fab 0.13 0.00 158.45 4.55 0.00 0.00 644.39 6.65 31.6 53.6 8439 Other outer garments of textile fab 0.00 0.00 110.15 3.17 0.07 0.00 624.68 6.45 8.8 17.0 4235 Olive oil 0.00 0.00 121.14 3.48 2.25 0.02 576.23 5.95 69.3 112.8 7721 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f 0.30 0.01 48.35 1.39 2.08 0.02 411.81 4.25 1.7 3.9 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 1.30 0.04 57.30 1.65 0.20 0.00 405.02 4.18 4.6 7.6 5629 Fertilizers,n.e.s. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 280.83 2.90 43.9 8510 Footwear 0.09 0.00 23.72 0.68 0.26 0.00 264.25 2.73 0.8 4.6 8462 Under garments,knitted of cotton 0.00 0.00 61.16 1.76 0.01 0.00 227.76 2.35 7.1 7.9 8465 Corsets,brassieres,suspendres and t 0.00 0.00 29.82 0.86 0.00 0.00 205.17 2.12 18.9 27.4 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.00 0.00 139.77 4.02 3.14 0.03 178.63 1.84 55.9 32.1 8451 Jerseys,pull-overs,twinsets,cardiga 0.01 0.00 15.12 0.43 0.00 0.00 180.77 1.87 1.2 5.6 6123 Parts of footwear 0.02 0.00 49.57 1.42 0.03 0.00 162.52 1.68 14.7 25.1 7849 Other parts & accessories of motor 0.59 0.02 21.73 0.62 3.50 0.04 157.08 1.62 0.3 0.7 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 0.00 0.00 245.47 7.05 1.24 0.01 155.29 1.60 244.6 228.5 8459 Other outer garments & clothing,kni 0.00 0.00 95.31 2.74 0.01 0.00 147.34 1.52 7.3 4.1 8841 Lenses,prisms,mirrors,other optical 0.11 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.00 126.41 1.31 0.1 5.1 8441 Shirts,men's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 73.78 2.12 0.00 0.00 105.29 1.09 12.1 9.3 8939 Miscellaneous art.of materials of d 0.60 0.02 3.55 0.10 1.74 0.02 100.87 1.04 0.2 1.8 0579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 0.70 0.02 50.79 1.46 10.56 0.11 83.53 0.86 8.9 6.8 8463 Under garments,knitted,of synthetic 0.00 0.00 9.42 0.27 0.04 0.00 90.48 0.93 3.1 7.5 5232 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 9.42 0.27 27.44 0.79 17.07 0.18 67.05 0.69 10.5 11.5 0360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 0.00 0.00 78.44 2.25 0.00 0.00 83.89 0.87 7.1 4.5 6589 Other made-up articles of textile m 0.00 0.00 5.89 0.17 0.35 0.00 83.48 0.86 3.7 10.5 7712 Other electric power machinery,part 0.00 0.00 15.33 0.44 0.03 0.00 77.88 0.80 1.9 2.2 7788 Other elect.machinery and equipment 0.05 0.00 20.11 0.58 0.07 0.00 75.71 0.78 1.0 1.0 8434 Skirts,women's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 52.09 1.50 0.00 0.00 62.23 0.64 19.2 9.8 6584 Bed linen,table linen,toilet & kitc 0.01 0.00 3.39 0.10 0.05 0.00 57.09 0.59 0.6 3.6 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach.merceri 0.08 0.00 45.52 1.31 1.14 0.01 54.80 0.57 3.5 2.0 8431 Coats and jackets of textile fabric 0.00 0.00 45.33 1.30 0.00 0.00 55.23 0.57 10.6 5.2 7711 Transformers,electrical 0.63 0.02 8.43 0.24 0.61 0.01 54.53 0.56 2.4 4.5 8720 Medical instruments and appliances 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.01 0.21 0.00 51.46 0.53 0.0 1.0 7783 Electr.equip.for internal combustio 0.04 0.00 1.46 0.04 0.67 0.01 45.21 0.47 0.2 1.9 6612 Portland cement,ciment fondu,slag c 21.66 0.62 45.44 1.31 18.67 0.19 24.64 0.25 22.8 7.1 7722 Printed circuits and parts thereof 0.02 0.00 7.10 0.20 0.00 0.00 42.88 0.44 1.0 1.5 6624 Non-refract.ceramic bricks,tiles,pi 5.04 0.14 13.10 0.38 2.41 0.02 39.80 0.41 3.5 3.1 8435 Blouses of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 21.94 0.63 0.00 0.00 40.12 0.41 4.0 4.6 6418 Paper & paperboard,impregnat.coat.s 0.04 0.00 0.35 0.01 1.30 0.01 37.26 0.38 0.0 1.7 6428 Art.of paper pulp,paper,paperboard, 0.06 0.00 0.38 0.01 5.33 0.06 30.89 0.32 0.1 2.2 7642 Microphones,loudspeakers,amplifiers 0.00 0.00 4.03 0.12 0.01 0.00 35.30 0.36 0.9 3.0 5231 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 1.14 0.03 32.16 0.92 1.52 0.02 27.75 0.29 13.7 6.4 6534 Fabrics,woven,of discontinuous synt 0.10 0.00 13.88 0.40 0.00 0.00 26.98 0.28 2.3 3.7 0483 Macaroni,spaghetti and similar prod 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.10 0.00 26.83 0.28 0.1 11.3 2882 Other non-ferrous base metal waste 0.00 0.00 6.47 0.19 0.00 0.00 26.74 0.28 1.2 2.0 8422 Suits,men's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.02 0.00 0.00 26.60 0.27 0.4 4.8 8219 Other furniture and parts 0.00 0.00 4.58 0.13 0.24 0.00 25.98 0.27 0.2 0.5 0341 Fish,fresh(live/dead)or chilled,exc 0.00 0.00 26.65 0.77 0.00 0.00 26.17 0.27 5.3 2.7 8310 Travel goods,handbags,brief-cases,p 0.00 0.00 13.07 0.38 0.00 0.00 25.48 0.26 1.5 1.1 8433 Dresses,women's,of textile fabrics 0.00 0.00 17.16 0.49 0.00 0.00 24.96 0.26 7.5 6.5 Total 42.25 1.21 2688.67 77.26 75.00 0.77 7865.98 81.22 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade. 63 Table A.1.25 Tunisia: Exports to the Maghreb RCA RCA Exports to Maghreb (1990) Exports to Maghreb (2004) (Maghreb Market) (World Market) Share of Share of Share of Share of Value (mils Regional Total Value (mils Regional Total 1990 2004 1990 2004 USD) Exports Exports USD) Exports Exports SITC Product Name (%) (%) (%) (%) 6612 Portland cement,ciment fondu,slag c 21.66 20.70 0.62 18.67 10.19 0.19 265.3 281.2 22.8 7.1 5232 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 9.42 9.00 0.27 17.07 9.32 0.18 257.9 277.7 10.5 11.5 0579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 0.70 0.67 0.02 10.56 5.76 0.11 206.6 257.5 8.9 6.8 6259 Other tyres,tyre cases,inner tubes 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.35 4.56 0.09 0.1 166.1 1.0 2.1 6770 Iron/steel wire/wheth/not coated,bu 2.00 1.91 0.06 8.04 4.39 0.08 76.4 140.2 0.9 1.6 6428 Art.of paper pulp,paper,paperboard, 0.06 0.06 0.00 5.33 2.91 0.06 5.5 62.3 0.1 2.2 0620 Sugar confectionery and other sugar 0.01 0.01 0.00 4.95 2.70 0.05 7.1 155.3 0.8 1.3 6251 Tyres,pneumatic,new,of a kind used 5.56 5.31 0.16 4.39 2.40 0.05 145.6 70.4 0.8 0.4 7781 Batteries and accumulators and part 0.44 0.42 0.01 3.80 2.07 0.04 17.8 61.3 0.2 0.6 7849 Other parts & accessories of motor 0.59 0.56 0.02 3.50 1.91 0.04 1.2 4.1 0.3 0.7 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.14 1.72 0.03 0.2 127.4 55.9 32.1 0484 Bakery products (e.g.,bread,biscuit 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.07 1.68 0.03 0.0 98.1 0.3 1.0 7643 Radiotelegraphic & radiotelephonic 0.06 0.05 0.00 2.96 1.61 0.03 1.1 3.8 0.0 0.0 6911 Structures & parts of struc.;iron/s 0.66 0.63 0.02 2.94 1.61 0.03 13.4 10.4 0.1 0.7 4312 Anim./veget.oils & fats,wholly/part 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 1.42 0.03 0.0 55.2 0.0 1.1 6732 Bars & rods,of iron/steel;hollow mi 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.49 1.36 0.03 0.0 4.0 0.4 0.5 6624 Non-refract.ceramic bricks,tiles,pi 5.04 4.82 0.14 2.41 1.32 0.02 165.6 24.3 3.5 3.1 5417 Medicaments(including veterinary me 0.23 0.22 0.01 2.34 1.28 0.02 0.4 1.7 0.0 0.1 6822 Copper and copper alloys,worked 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.28 1.25 0.02 0.0 8.6 0.3 0.3 4235 Olive oil 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.25 1.23 0.02 0.0 432.5 69.3 112.8 7721 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f 0.30 0.28 0.01 2.08 1.13 0.02 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.9 7932 Ships,boats and other vessels 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.90 1.04 0.02 0.1 8.2 0.2 0.2 5989 Chemical products and preparations, 0.61 0.58 0.02 1.90 1.04 0.02 5.2 7.4 0.1 0.1 6733 Angles,shapes & sections & sheet pi 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.84 1.00 0.02 0.0 7.9 0.3 0.4 5530 Perfumery,cosmetics and toilet prep 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.98 0.02 0.1 8.5 0.7 0.5 8939 Miscellaneous art.of materials of d 0.60 0.58 0.02 1.74 0.95 0.02 7.5 6.0 0.2 1.8 1121 Wine of fresh grapes (including gra 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.74 0.95 0.02 0.0 193.3 0.5 0.3 6353 Builders' carpentry and joinery 0.07 0.07 0.00 1.55 0.85 0.02 1.5 19.4 0.0 0.3 5231 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 1.14 1.09 0.03 1.52 0.83 0.02 48.5 46.2 13.7 6.4 5138 Polycarboxylic acids & their anhydr 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.51 0.83 0.02 0.0 52.2 0.0 0.2 7252 Paper & paperboard cutting mach.of 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 0.78 0.01 0.0 18.2 0.1 0.8 7831 Public-service type passenger motor 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.37 0.75 0.01 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.2 6417 Paper & paperboard,corrugated,crepe 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.36 0.74 0.01 0.0 145.2 0.7 2.2 5542 Organic surface-active agents,n.e.s 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.34 0.73 0.01 0.2 15.6 0.2 0.8 6418 Paper & paperboard,impregnat.coat.s 0.04 0.04 0.00 1.30 0.71 0.01 0.6 7.3 0.0 1.7 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 0.68 0.01 0.0 252.9 244.6 228.5 7239 Parts of the machinery of 723.41 to 0.13 0.12 0.00 1.18 0.64 0.01 1.4 2.8 0.3 0.4 8741 Surveying,hydrographic,compasses et 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 0.63 0.01 0.0 15.8 0.3 0.4 8743 Instr.non electrical,for measuring, 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.62 0.01 0.0 17.7 0.3 0.7 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach.merceri 0.08 0.07 0.00 1.14 0.62 0.01 0.1 0.8 3.5 2.0 6994 Springs & leaves for springs,of iro 3.06 2.93 0.09 1.13 0.62 0.01 267.9 134.7 7.0 4.6 6924 Casks,drums,boxes of iron/steel for 0.05 0.04 0.00 1.12 0.61 0.01 0.9 6.5 0.1 1.0 7810 Passenger motor cars,for transport 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 0.58 0.01 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2874 Lead ores and concentrates 0.38 0.36 0.01 1.06 0.58 0.01 15.4 52.3 1.5 2.1 5541 Soap;organic surface-active product 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.04 0.57 0.01 0.0 32.1 0.1 0.8 5833 Polystyrene and its copolymers 2.84 2.71 0.08 1.03 0.56 0.01 60.7 13.3 0.4 0.1 6997 Articles of iron or steel, n.e.s. 0.19 0.18 0.01 0.98 0.53 0.01 5.3 11.6 1.5 0.9 7752 Household type refrigerators & food 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.52 0.01 0.1 9.1 0.0 0.2 0589 Fruit otherwise prepared or preserv 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 0.51 0.01 0.0 41.9 0.2 0.2 5823 Alkyds and other polyesters 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.48 0.01 1.3 5.3 0.0 0.1 Total 55.98 53.51 1.61 151.56 82.75 1.56 Source: Authors' calculation based on UN Comtrade. 64 Table A.1.26 Algeria: 30 Largest Dynamic Export Products with respect to the World Exports 2000 Exports 2004 Annual RCA Index Share of Share of Growth Rate (World Value Total Exports Value Total (2000-04) Market) SITC Product Name (US mil) (%) (US mil) Exports (%) 2004 1110 Non alcoholic beverages,n.e.s. 0.13 0.0 2.54 0.0 111.8 0.07 2820 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 4.55 0.0 63.76 0.2 93.5 0.74 545 Other fresh or chilled vegetables 0.12 0.0 1.55 0.0 90.8 0.03 2112 Calf skins,raw (fresh,salted,dried, 0.12 0.0 1.58 0.0 90.4 0.38 4313 Fatty acids,acid oils,and residues 0.24 0.0 2.90 0.0 85.6 0.36 6960 Cutlery 0.32 0.0 1.53 0.0 47.3 0.06 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 16.05 0.1 70.65 0.2 44.8 0.61 2882 Other non-ferrous base metal waste 5.61 0.0 21.18 0.1 39.4 0.49 8931 Art.for the conveyance or packing o 0.31 0.0 0.92 0.0 30.9 0.01 5621 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,nit 16.15 0.1 39.64 0.1 25.2 1.39 7649 Parts of apparatus of division 76-- 0.10 0.0 0.24 0.0 24.1 0.00 6421 Boxes,bags & oth.packing containers 0.72 0.0 1.64 0.0 22.8 0.04 2511 Waste paper,paperboard;only for use 0.26 0.0 0.59 0.0 22.1 0.04 6114 Leather of other bovine cattle and 0.47 0.0 1.03 0.0 21.5 0.02 360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 4.30 0.0 8.98 0.0 20.2 0.15 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach.merceri 0.25 0.0 0.52 0.0 19.8 0.01 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 1.29 0.0 2.67 0.0 19.8 0.02 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils obt.from b 9254.36 42.0 17600.00 54.8 17.4 16.95 5225 Oth.inorg.bases & metallic oxid.,hy 56.04 0.3 104.74 0.3 16.9 3.59 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 0.60 0.0 1.12 0.0 16.7 0.06 548 Vegetable products,roots & tubers,f 1.35 0.0 2.45 0.0 16.1 0.50 7492 Taps,cocks,valves etc.for pipes,tan 0.39 0.0 0.66 0.0 13.7 0.00 6330 Cork manufactures 7.32 0.0 11.80 0.0 12.7 1.96 6783 Other tubes and pipes,of iron or st 1.66 0.0 2.64 0.0 12.2 0.04 7523 Complete digital central processing 0.10 0.0 0.15 0.0 10.3 0.00 6412 Printing paper & writing paper,in r 1.07 0.0 1.55 0.0 9.6 0.05 5121 Acyclic alcohols & their halogenate 12.90 0.1 18.58 0.1 9.6 0.31 341 Fish,fresh(live/dead)or chilled,exc 0.37 0.0 0.51 0.0 8.3 0.02 6712 Pig iron,cast iron and spiegeleisen 13.08 0.1 17.93 0.1 8.2 1.25 6821 Copper and copper alloys,refined or 0.16 0.0 0.21 0.0 7.7 0.00 Total 9400.41 42.7 17984.25 56.0 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 65 Table A.1.27 Algeria: Annual Growth Rate of 30 Largest Export Products Exports 2000 Exports 2004 RCA Index Annual Share of Share of (World Growth Rate Value Total Exports Value Total (2000-04) Market) SITC Product Name (US mil) (%) (US mil) Exports (%) 2004 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils obt.from b 9254.36 42.0 17600.00 54.8 17.4 16.95 3413 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 5735.39 26.0 6736.19 21.0 4.1 49.96 3414 Petroleum gases and other gaseous h 3281.49 14.9 4258.62 13.3 6.7 15.86 3352 Mineral tars and products of their 190.55 0.9 250.06 0.8 7.0 8.50 5225 Oth.inorg.bases & metallic oxid.,hy 56.04 0.3 104.74 0.3 16.9 3.59 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 16.05 0.1 70.65 0.2 44.8 0.61 2820 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 4.55 0.0 63.76 0.2 93.5 0.74 5621 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,nit 16.15 0.1 39.64 0.1 25.2 1.39 6861 Zinc and zinc alloys,unwrought 20.52 0.1 25.44 0.1 5.5 1.36 5221 Chemical elements 21.31 0.1 24.46 0.1 3.5 0.97 2882 Other non-ferrous base metal waste 5.61 0.0 21.18 0.1 39.4 0.49 5121 Acyclic alcohols & their halogenate 12.90 0.1 18.58 0.1 9.6 0.31 2713 Natural calcium phosphat.,natur.alu 20.56 0.1 18.29 0.1 -2.9 4.26 6712 Pig iron,cast iron and spiegeleisen 13.08 0.1 17.93 0.1 8.2 1.25 579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 14.75 0.1 14.57 0.0 -0.3 0.32 6330 Cork manufactures 7.32 0.0 11.80 0.0 12.7 1.96 6115 Sheep and lamb skin leather 11.59 0.1 9.94 0.0 -3.8 2.27 360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 4.30 0.0 8.98 0.0 20.2 0.15 1121 Wine of fresh grapes (including gra 5.26 0.0 4.51 0.0 -3.7 0.06 6725 Blooms,billets,slabs & sheet bars o 28.65 0.1 3.73 0.0 -39.9 0.04 4313 Fatty acids,acid oils,and residues 0.24 0.0 2.90 0.0 85.6 0.36 7239 Parts of the machinery of 723.41 to 5.29 0.0 2.82 0.0 -14.5 0.03 6954 Interchangeable tools for hand & ma 2.08 0.0 2.73 0.0 7.0 0.04 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 1.29 0.0 2.67 0.0 19.8 0.02 6783 Other tubes and pipes,of iron or st 1.66 0.0 2.64 0.0 12.2 0.04 1110 Non alcoholic beverages,n.e.s. 0.13 0.0 2.54 0.0 111.8 0.07 6782 seamlesstubes and pipes;blanks fo 3.74 0.0 2.45 0.0 -10.0 0.07 6744 Sheets & plates,rolled >4.75mm of i 2.82 0.0 2.45 0.0 -3.5 0.05 548 Vegetable products,roots & tubers,f 1.35 0.0 2.45 0.0 16.1 0.50 8741 Surveying,hydrographic,compasses et 6.03 0.0 2.23 0.0 -22.0 0.06 Total 18745.05 85.1 29328.92 91.3 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. Figures A.1.1 to A.1.4 Algeria: Evolution of Selected Dynamic Products, (1990-2004) 80 60 ) onilli m )noilli DSU( m 60 40 DS eualV (U eluaV 40 rt portxE a 20 poxE air gerilA 20 gelA 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2004 Waste and scrap metal of iron/steel (2820) 1990 1995 2000 2004 Other sheets and plates,of iron/steel (6749) Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade 5 1. 30 ) ) onilli onilli m m DSU( 1 DSU( 20 eualV eualV portxE .5 portxE 10 a a gerilA gerilA 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2004 1990 1995 2000 2004 Cutlery (6960) Other non-ferrous base metal waste (2882) Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 66 Table A.1.28 Morocco: Dynamic Export Products with respect to the World Exports 2000 Exports 2004 RCA Share of Share of Annual Index Total Total Growth (World Value Exports Value Exports Rate (2000-04) Market) SITC Product Name (US mil) (%) (US mil) (%) 2004 3352 Mineral tars and products of their 0.11 0.00 246.98 2.49 592.7 27.3 5224 Metallic oxides of zinc,chromium,ma 0.21 0.00 13.85 0.14 184.9 4.0 4235 Olive oil 1.06 0.01 55.70 0.56 168.9 10.7 7442 Lifting,handling,loading mach.conve 0.15 0.00 4.36 0.04 130.6 0.2 7599 Parts of and accessories suitable f 0.74 0.01 14.41 0.15 110.0 0.1 7512 Calculating machines,cash registers 0.33 0.00 5.92 0.06 106.5 1.3 6631 Hand polishing stones,whetstones,oi 0.10 0.00 1.76 0.02 103.4 0.6 5231 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 0.12 0.00 1.73 0.02 94.3 0.4 7810 Passenger motor cars,for transport 0.21 0.00 2.79 0.03 90.2 0.0 6647 Safety glass consisting of toughene 0.31 0.00 4.01 0.04 89.0 0.6 6623 Refractory bricks & other refract.c 0.11 0.00 1.34 0.01 85.1 0.3 5824 Polyamides 0.24 0.00 2.36 0.02 77.5 0.3 7252 Paper & paperboard cutting mach.of 0.11 0.00 1.07 0.01 77.3 0.3 2783 Common salt;rock sat,sea salt;pur.s 0.42 0.01 3.42 0.03 68.7 2.2 6289 Other articles of rubber,n.e.s. 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.01 66.8 0.1 4111 Fats and oils of fish and marine ma 2.50 0.03 18.87 0.19 65.8 28.2 7938 Tugs,special purpose vessels,floati 0.11 0.00 0.75 0.01 60.3 0.1 575 Grapes,fresh or dried 1.44 0.02 9.20 0.09 58.9 2.1 9410 Animals,live,n.e.s.,incl. zoo-anima 0.36 0.00 2.29 0.02 58.7 4.2 6664 Tableware & other articles of porce 0.43 0.01 2.70 0.03 58.3 0.8 6583 Travelling rugs and blankets,not kn 1.35 0.02 8.42 0.08 58.2 4.1 8996 Orthopaedic appliances,surgical bel 0.17 0.00 1.02 0.01 57.3 0.0 2820 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 13.96 0.19 85.30 0.86 57.2 3.2 6760 Rails and railway track constructio 0.37 0.00 2.26 0.02 57.1 1.0 5831 Polyethylene 0.26 0.00 1.48 0.01 54.6 0.0 9710 Gold,non-monetary 3.15 0.04 16.32 0.16 50.9 0.4 5542 Organic surface-active agents,n.e.s 2.98 0.04 14.72 0.15 49.0 0.8 483 Macaroni,spaghetti and similar prod 0.74 0.01 3.65 0.04 49.0 1.5 344 Fish fillets,frozen 0.51 0.01 2.37 0.02 47.1 0.3 6911 Structures & parts of struc.;iron/s 1.10 0.01 5.17 0.05 47.1 0.3 Total 33.78 0.45 535.06 5.39 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 67 Table A.1.29 Morocco: Annual Growth Rate of 30 Largest Export Products Exports 2000 Exports 2004 Share of Share of Annual Total Total Growth Value Exports Value Exports Rate (2000- 04) SITC Product Name (US mil) (%) (US mil) (%) 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 507.19 6.82 715.59 7.21 9.0 7763 Diodes,transistors and sim.semi-con 445.11 5.99 623.01 6.28 8.8 8439 Other outer garments of textile fab 439.28 5.91 598.89 6.04 8.1 8423 Trousers,breeches etc.of textile fa 405.42 5.46 438.16 4.42 2.0 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 196.69 2.65 423.17 4.26 21.1 2713 Natural calcium phosphat.,natur.alu 389.33 5.24 420.97 4.24 2.0 371 Fish,prepared or preserved,n.e.s. i 201.81 2.72 355.43 3.58 15.2 5629 Fertilizers,n.e.s. 247.47 3.33 325.14 3.28 7.1 360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 635.61 8.55 300.58 3.03 -17.1 8462 Under garments,knitted of cotton 206.17 2.77 268.94 2.71 6.9 571 Oranges,mandarins,clementines and o 192.78 2.59 251.93 2.54 6.9 3352 Mineral tars and products of their 0.11 0.00 246.98 2.49 592.7 8451 Jerseys,pull-overs,twinsets,cardiga 179.17 2.41 210.67 2.12 4.1 8459 Other outer garments & clothing,kni 212.09 2.85 171.49 1.73 -5.2 8465 Corsets,brassieres,suspendres and t 131.47 1.77 162.31 1.64 5.4 8463 Under garments,knitted,of synthetic 67.32 0.91 162.16 1.63 24.6 8510 Footwear 104.94 1.41 161.68 1.63 11.4 8431 Coats and jackets of textile fabric 94.69 1.27 160.55 1.62 14.1 8429 Other outer garments of textile fab 106.83 1.44 160.18 1.61 10.7 7721 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f 44.11 0.59 155.23 1.56 37.0 8434 Skirts,women's,of textile fabrics 100.73 1.36 148.34 1.49 10.2 8441 Shirts,men's,of textile fabrics 109.90 1.48 138.91 1.40 6.0 565 Vegetables,prepared or preserved,n. 86.40 1.16 130.29 1.31 10.8 545 Other fresh or chilled vegetables 33.52 0.45 119.65 1.21 37.5 8435 Blouses of textile fabrics 106.60 1.43 116.58 1.17 2.3 544 Tomatoes,fresh or chilled 81.85 1.10 112.95 1.14 8.4 341 Fish,fresh(live/dead)or chilled,exc 81.91 1.10 110.85 1.12 7.9 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 75.87 1.02 106.24 1.07 8.8 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 29.70 0.40 91.96 0.93 32.7 2820 Waste and scrap metal of iron or st 13.96 0.19 85.30 0.86 57.2 Total 5528.01 74.38 7474.11 75.32 946.2 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. Figures A.1.5 to A.1.8 Morocco Evolution of Selected Dynamic Products, (1990-2004) 250 15 )noill 0 20 on)illi mi m D (US 0 DSU( 10 uelaVtr 15 0 uealVtr poxE 10 poxE 5 o ccor oc 50 oroc Mo M 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2004 1990 1995 2000 2004 Mineral tars and prodcuts (3352) Parts & accessories for office machines (7599) Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade 15 6 )noill on)illi mi m D 10 (US DSU( 4 uelaVtr uealVtr poxE 5 poxE 2 o ccor oc oroc Mo M 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2004 1990 1995 2000 2004 Metallic oxides of zinc,chromium(5224) Calculating machines,cash registers (7512) Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 68 Table A.1.30 Tunisia: Dynamic Export Products with respect to the World Exports 2000 Exports 2004 RCA Share of Share of Annual Index Total Total Growth (World Value Exports Value ExportsRate (2000- 04) Market) SITC Product Name (US mil) (%) (US mil) (%) 2004 6732 Bars & rods,of iron/steel;hollow mi 0.25 0.00 12.01 0.12 164.0 0.5 7528 Off-line data processing equipment. 0.42 0.01 17.34 0.18 152.9 0.5 813 Oil-cake & other residues (except d 0.60 0.01 22.83 0.24 147.9 1.6 6517 Yarn of regenerated fibres,not for 0.13 0.00 3.19 0.03 124.3 1.0 6552 Knitted/crocheted fabrics of fibres 0.41 0.01 9.76 0.10 121.4 0.5 6749 Other sheets and plates,of iron or 0.11 0.00 2.54 0.03 118.7 0.1 6210 Materials of rubber(e.g.,pastes,pla 0.44 0.01 9.24 0.10 114.1 0.7 6418 Paper & paperboard,impregnat.coat.s 1.91 0.03 38.56 0.40 112.0 1.7 8996 Orthopaedic appliances,surgical bel 0.28 0.00 5.38 0.06 109.1 0.2 819 Food wastes and prepared animal fee 1.29 0.02 23.75 0.25 107.1 1.8 7821 Motor vehicles for transport of goo 0.22 0.00 3.91 0.04 105.4 0.0 6417 Paper & paperboard,corrugated,crepe 0.43 0.01 7.46 0.08 103.8 2.2 342 Fish,frozen (excluding fillets) 0.63 0.01 9.47 0.10 97.0 0.7 7599 Parts of and accessories suitable f 0.98 0.02 13.55 0.14 93.0 0.1 4312 Anim./veget.oils & fats,wholly/part 0.31 0.01 3.28 0.03 80.3 1.1 350 Fish,dried,salted or in brine ; smo 0.33 0.01 3.28 0.03 78.1 0.9 2919 Other materials of animal origin, n 1.68 0.03 16.57 0.17 77.2 3.4 8720 Medical instruments and appliances 5.33 0.09 51.68 0.53 76.5 1.0 6351 Wooden packing cases,boxes,crates,d 0.16 0.00 1.31 0.01 67.9 2.3 8993 Candles,matches,pyrophoric alloys e 0.76 0.01 5.95 0.06 67.1 1.7 6912 Structures & parts of struc.;alumin 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.01 67.0 0.2 6770 Iron/steel wire/wheth/not coated,bu 1.59 0.03 12.25 0.13 66.7 1.6 6782 seamlesstubes and pipes;blanks fo 0.48 0.01 3.26 0.03 61.9 0.3 6639 Articles of ceramic materials,n.e.s 1.06 0.02 7.09 0.07 60.7 2.3 7932 Ships,boats and other vessels 1.85 0.03 12.10 0.12 59.8 0.2 5221 Chemical elements 0.18 0.00 1.14 0.01 59.4 0.1 8742 Drawing,marking-out,disc calculator 0.63 0.01 3.99 0.04 58.9 0.2 6733 Angles,shapes & sections & sheet pi 0.77 0.01 4.82 0.05 57.9 0.4 8921 Books,pamphlets,maps and globes,pri 0.59 0.01 3.64 0.04 57.9 0.2 8983 Gramophone records and sim.sound re 0.81 0.01 4.86 0.05 56.5 0.1 Total 24.74 0.42 315.07 3.25 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 69 Table A.1.31 Tunisia: Annual Growth Rate of 30 Largest Export Products Exports 2000 Exports 2004 Share of Share of Annual RCA Index Total Total Growth (World Value Exports Value Exports Rate Market) (2000-04) 2004 SITC Product Name (US mil) (%) (US mil) (%) 3330 Petrol.oils & crude oils obt.from b 610.73 10.44 751.60 7.76 5.3 2.4 8423 Trousers,breeches etc.of textile fa 596.59 10.20 729.10 7.53 5.1 33.9 8429 Other outer garments of textile fab 309.82 5.30 644.40 6.65 20.1 53.6 8439 Other outer garments of textile fab 367.18 6.28 624.75 6.45 14.2 17.0 4235 Olive oil 196.44 3.36 578.48 5.97 31.0 112.8 7721 Elect.app.such as switches,relays,f 165.71 2.83 413.89 4.27 25.7 3.9 7731 Insulated,elect.wire,cable,bars,str 239.13 4.09 405.22 4.18 14.1 7.6 5629 Fertilizers,n.e.s. 157.71 2.70 280.85 2.90 15.5 43.9 8510 Footwear 135.57 2.32 264.51 2.73 18.2 4.6 8462 Under garments,knitted of cotton 105.11 1.80 227.76 2.35 21.3 7.9 8465 Corsets,brassieres,suspendres and t 125.10 2.14 205.17 2.12 13.2 27.4 5222 Inorganic acids and oxygen compound 178.07 3.04 181.78 1.88 0.5 32.1 8451 Jerseys,pull-overs,twinsets,cardiga 144.23 2.47 180.77 1.87 5.8 5.6 6123 Parts of footwear 129.71 2.22 162.55 1.68 5.8 25.1 7849 Other parts & accessories of motor 32.70 0.56 160.58 1.66 48.9 0.7 5622 Mineral or chemical fertilizers,pho 107.78 1.84 156.53 1.62 9.8 228.5 8459 Other outer garments & clothing,kni 113.47 1.94 147.35 1.52 6.8 4.1 8841 Lenses,prisms,mirrors,other optical 48.50 0.83 126.46 1.31 27.1 5.1 8441 Shirts,men's,of textile fabrics 84.10 1.44 105.29 1.09 5.8 9.3 8939 Miscellaneous art.of materials of d 29.51 0.50 102.61 1.06 36.6 1.8 579 Fruit,fresh or dried, n.e.s. 40.26 0.69 94.09 0.97 23.6 6.8 8463 Under garments,knitted,of synthetic 48.17 0.82 90.52 0.93 17.1 7.5 5232 Metallic salts and peroxysalts of i 58.31 1.00 84.11 0.87 9.6 11.5 360 Crustaceans and molluscs,fresh,chil 69.93 1.20 83.89 0.87 4.7 4.5 6589 Other made-up articles of textile m 18.57 0.32 83.83 0.87 45.8 10.5 7712 Other electric power machinery,part 45.96 0.79 77.92 0.80 14.1 2.2 7788 Other elect.machinery and equipment 26.46 0.45 75.78 0.78 30.1 1.0 8434 Skirts,women's,of textile fabrics 54.56 0.93 62.23 0.64 3.3 9.8 6584 Bed linen,table linen,toilet & kitc 11.05 0.19 57.14 0.59 50.8 3.6 6522 Cotton fabrics,woven,bleach.merceri 50.09 0.86 55.93 0.58 2.8 2.0 Total 4300.51 73.51 7215.10 74.50 Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. Figures A.1.9 to A.1.12 Tunisia: Evolution of Selected Dynamic Products, (1990-2004) 20 15 n)oilli m 15 n)oilli m D D 10 (US (US eualV 10 eualV portxE portxE 5 ais 5 ais Tuni Tuni 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2004 1990 1995 2000 2004 Off-line data processing equipment (7528) Bars & rods,of iron/steel (6732) Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade 10 10 n)oilli 8 n)oilli 8 m m D D (US 6 (US 6 eualV eualV portxE 4 portxE 4 ais ais 2 2 Tuni Tuni 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2004 1990 1995 2000 2004 Knitted/crocheted fabrics of fibres (6552) Rubber products(6210) Source: UN Comtrade Source: UN Comtrade Source: Author's calculation based on UN COMTRADE. 70 Table A.1.32 Maghreb: Intra-Industry Trade, Grubel-Lloyd Index Manufacturing Trade, % of total merchandise Total Trade Region ROW trade, 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 1990 2004 Exports Imports Algeria 8.3 5.0 17.9 29.3 8.0 4.0 1.2 73.4 Morocco 24.2 30.2 32.9 38.6 22.1 29.5 66.4 65.8 Tunisia 31.7 43.9 27.1 33.3 30.9 43.2 77.1 74.9 Maghreb Average 21.4 26.3 26.0 33.7 20.3 25.6 48.2 71.4 ASEAN5 Average 46.7 66.4 58.8 70.1 41.7 62.3 62.2 70.7 NAFTA Average 64.9 72.8 65.6 72.9 52.4 43.1 57.4 71.8 Note: The index was calculated for manufacturing trade only (groups 5 through 8 excluding non-ferrous metal, using 2 digit SITC Rev. 2 classification). Source: Authors calculation based on data from UN Comtrade. Table A.1.33 Maghreb vs Comparators: Intra-Industry Trade by Product Groups, Grubel-Lloyd Index Total Trade Region ROW Machinery & Other Machinery & Other Machinery & Other Chemicals Chemicals Chemicals Year Transport Manufactures Transport Manufactures Transport Manufactures Algeria 1990 16.1 4.8 11.3 31.4 22.2 11.2 15.7 4.5 11.3 2004 14.1 1.1 7.2 62.8 3.9 17.2 12.3 1.1 4.8 Morocco 1990 27.4 18.8 26.9 11.0 34.2 40.2 25.1 17.6 24.2 2004 27.3 41.4 23.0 22.6 45.2 46.9 24.4 41.1 22.7 Tunisia 1990 22.0 29.9 35.3 19.3 60.7 18.7 20.8 28.8 34.6 2004 26.1 53.5 42.0 34.1 11.5 38.6 24.4 53.0 41.4 Maghreb 1990 21.9 17.9 24.5 20.5 39.0 23.4 20.5 17.0 23.4 Average 2004 22.5 32.0 24.1 39.8 20.2 34.2 20.4 31.7 23.0 NAFTA 1990 69.0 66.3 58.8 55.5 67.0 64.0 72.9 51.3 44.2 Average 2004 67.7 77.8 63.7 63.2 74.2 72.5 65.3 43.1 36.6 ASEAN5 1990 35.5 48.8 44.2 43.5 62.4 53.0 28.6 43.8 39.4 Average 2004 61.9 70.5 57.1 58.2 72.1 64.7 60.3 66.6 52.6 Note: Authors' calculation using 2 digit, SITC Revision 2 from UN Comtrade. The classifications of product groups are defined as: chemicals (SITC 5); machinery & transports (SITC 7) and other manufactures (SITC 6+8-68). Table A.1.34 :Trade in Parts and Components in the Maghreb Region and Comparators, 1993-2004 total total Exports of Imports of Share of P&C Share of P&C as exports of imports of P&C as % P&C as % as % of % of Country year P&C P&C of total of total manufacturing manufacturing ($millions) ($millions) exports imports exports imports Algeria 1990 3.8 856.6 0.03 8.80 1.73 14.61 2000 7.3 861.2 0.03 9.41 4.64 17.06 2004 6.29 2074.82 0.02 11.33 3.31 18.26 Morocco 1990 48.8 350.1 1.15 5.06 3.51 10.02 2000 118.9 1028.8 1.60 8.92 3.07 16.41 2004 303.2 1154.0 3.06 6.47 5.69 11.43 Tunisia 1990 118.0 405.3 3.37 7.40 6.18 11.81 2000 348.8 784.7 5.96 9.16 8.96 13.72 2004 886.5 1548.4 9.15 12.16 13.32 18.45 Maghreb 1990 170.7 1612.0 0.91 7.28 4.85 12.61 2000 475.0 2674.7 1.35 9.14 6.00 15.70 2004 1196.0 4777.2 2.31 9.78 9.82 16.00 CEE 1990 370.8 249.1 1.67 1.55 3.35 2.88 2000 16300.0 21500.0 14.90 15.82 19.11 23.39 2004 44100.0 41100.0 18.48 15.71 23.22 22.51 EU-15 1990 164000.00 150000.00 11.07 9.70 16.12 15.65 2000 307000.00 288000.00 13.98 12.97 20.41 20.50 2004 417000.00 395000.00 12.47 12.04 18.96 19.65 ASEAN5 1990 13300.0 26000.0 9.55 16.45 17.72 25.98 2000 77500.0 81700.0 19.15 23.70 26.05 33.76 2004 82500.0 106000.0 16.34 23.72 24.61 35.14 NAFTA 1990 90500.0 87500.0 16.57 13.18 27.56 19.27 2000 235000.0 252000.0 19.18 15.06 27.22 20.82 2004 219000.0 274000.0 16.54 13.72 25.21 20.15 Source: Authors calculation based on UN COMTRADE database using SITC Rev 2 at 4 digit level Note: Manufactured exports are products code 6 to 8 excluding 68 using SITC Rev. 2. 71 Figure s A. 1.13 to A.1.15. Maghreb: Share of High Tech Exports in Total Merchandise Exports (in percent), 1990-2004 100 100 100 share of exports (%) 90 90 90 Tunisia 80 ) 80 ) 80 Morocco %( 70 (% 70 70 st st 60 orp 60 Algeria 60 por 50 ex 50 ex 50 40 of 40 of 40 er 30 30 has 30 20 20 hares 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Primary Products Mining Primary Products Mining Primary Products Mining Mediumto High-tech Manufacturers Low -tech manufacturers Medium to High-tech Manufacturers Low -tech manufacturers Medium to High-tech Manufacturers Low-tech manufacturers Note. Degree of technological intensity follows OECD definition. Source: Authors' calculations using UN Comtrade data Figures A 1.16 to A.1.18: Maghreb Intraregional Merchandise Trade Potential (% of GDP) , on annual average Algeria Morocco Tunisia 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 Tunisia Morocco Algeria Tunisia Algeria Morocco Source: Authors' calculation using results of the panel gravity trade regression with 1980-2004 data. Note: Negative coefficients imply that a country is over-exporting to its trading partner, i.e. the actual trade flows exceed the predicted values. Table A.1.35 Intra-Maghreb Merchandise Trade Potential, 1980-2004 (in percent of GDP), annual average Algeria Morocco Tunisia Exports to Algeria n/a -0.07 -0.54 Tunisia -0.16 -0.11 n/a Morocco -0.18 n/a -0.11 Source: Authors' calculation using results of the panel gravity trade regression with 1980-2004 data. Note: Negative coefficients imply that a country is over-exporting to its trading partner, i.e. the actual trade flows exceed the predicted values. 72 Table A.1.36: Estimated Trade Potential (percent of GDP) Algeria Morocco Tunisia Export Export Export Country Potential Country Potential Country Potential EU Total export potential -0.61 0.33 -0.18 Top 5 export potentials Hong Kong 0.00 France 2.25 United Kingdom 0.53 Israel 0.00 United States 1.22 France 0.48 Colombia 0.00 Germany 0.84 Switzerland 0.17 Kenya 0.00 Portugal 0.77 United States 0.08 Iceland 0.00 Spain 0.47 Portugal 0.05 Top 5 over-export destinations United States -5.51 India -0.77 Belgium -2.06 Italy -2.89 Japan -0.61 Germany -1.53 Spain -1.83 Turkey -0.23 India -0.43 Germany -1.52 Saudi Arabia -0.21 Greece -0.40 Belgium -1.52 Brazil -0.18 Turkey -0.24 Source: Authors' calculation using results of the panel gravity trade regression with 2004 data. Note: Negative coefficients imply that a country is over-exporting to its trading partner, i.e. the actual trade flows exceed the predicted values. Table A.1.37: Intra-Maghreb FDI Stock Potential (percent of GDP) Algeria Morocco Tunisia Under (+) / Over (-) Investment Into: Algeria n/a 0.01 0.02 Morocco -0.02 n/a -0.01 Tunisia 0.33 0.40 n/a Source: Author's calculation using results of gravity FDI regression with 2002 data. Note: Negative coefficients imply that a country is over-investing in the host country i.e. the actual fdi stock exceed the predicted values. Figures A. 1.19 to A.1.21: Intra-Maghreb FDI Stock Potential (percent of GDP) Algeria Morocco Tunisia 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Morocco Tunisia Algeria Tunisia Algeria Morocco Source: Author's calculation using results of gravity FDI regression with 2002 data. Note: Negative coefficients imply that a country is over-investing in the host country i.e. the actual fdi stock exceed the predicted values. 73 Table A.1.38: Estimated FDI stock Potential (percent of GDP) Algeria Morocco Tunisia FDI FDI FDI Country Potential Country Potential Country Potential Top 6 Under-investing Countries From: Switzerland 0.67 United States 1.81 Luxemberg 6.11 From: Germany 0.29 United Kingdom 1.23 Switzerland 4.23 From: France 0.28 Luxemberg 0.91 Germany 3.05 From: Netherlands 0.17 Netherlands 0.86 Netherlands 2.57 From: United Kingdom 0.07 Saudi Arabia 0.67 France 2.39 From: Canada 0.03 Germany 0.58 Saudi Arabia 2.03 Top 6 Over-investing Countries From: Austria -0.01 Korea -0.09 Hungary -0.11 From: Sweden -0.09 Italy -0.30 Kuwait -0.53 From: Japan -0.09 Portugal -0.38 Spain -2.05 From: Belgium -0.13 Sweden -0.71 Portugal -2.08 From: Italy -0.66 Spain -2.46 United States -2.81 From: United States -3.71 France -3.65 Italy -3.29 Note: FDI potential is calculated using 2002 data based on countries with existing investment in the Maghreb. Below investment potential implies that the recipient country can potentially receive inward investment from the listed countries based on the gravity FDI model predictions. 74 B. Annex to Chapter 2: Table A.2.1 Maghreb vs. Comparators: Financial Market Indicators market market stock no. of listed capitalization (% capitalization turnover domestic of GDP) value (US bil) ratio (%) companies regions 1996 2004 1996 2004 1996 2004 1996 2004 Maghreb 22.8 29.7 6.5 13.9 3.7 8.8 38.5 48.0 MENA 20.3 38.4 51.4 141.0 17.8 22.7 1138.0 1627.0 CEE 12.1 25.6 6.9 29.0 75.9 38.6 510.6 144.8 SEE 4.4 19.9 0.8 8.5 7.5 13.0 25.8 1502.3 Note: MGB= Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia): SEE= Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Serbia & Montenegro: CEE = Central and European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech and Slovak Republic, Slovenia). Source: WDI, 2005. Table A.2.2: Tariff Rates (percent), 2004 MFN Simple Average (%) Total Mechandise Imports Total Non- Merchandise Agriculture Bound Rate Binding Agriculture Imports Imports (%) Coverage (%) Imports Algeria 18.7 23.0 18.1 n/a n/a Morocco 30.2 48.6 27.5 41.3 100.0 Tunisia 32.7 69.3 23.6 57.8 57.4 Maghreb Average 27.2 47.0 23.1 49.5 78.7 CEE Average 8.19 12.19 7.35 11.34 99.06 ASEAN5 Average 7.4 10.1 7.0 22.0 78.2 NAFTA Average 8.5 13.8 9.3 14.5 99.9 Source: World Trade Report, 2005 and WTO database 2005. Note: The latest available data for Algeria (2003) and Morocco (2002) was used. Regional averages utilize the most recent tariff data up until 2004. Table A.2.3: Power & Water Indicators, 2004 Access Quality Energy Use per PPP Access to Access to Access to GDP (kg of oil Improved Water Improved Electric losses Electricity Network equivalent/1000 PPP Sources (% of Sanitation (% of (% of output) (% of population) USD, constant 2000) population) population) Algeria 96.0 177.3 87.0 92.0 14.2 Morocco 47.0 97.6 80.0 61.0 16.1 Tunisia 95.0 123.3 82.0 80.0 11.2 East Asia & Pacific 54.0 217.9 75.0 60.0 7.3 Europe & Central Asia 99.0 375.0 87.0 78.0 13.0 Middle East & North Africa 88.0 235.8 85.0 77.0 15.5 Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. For commercial perception indices , 1=worst and 7=best. Source: WDI 2005, ITU 2005. Table A.2.4: Road Indicators, 2004 Access Cost Quality Pump price for Road Density Road Density Paved Roads (% diesel fuel (US$ (km/1000 people) (km/1000 sq km) of total roads) per liter) Algeria 3.5 43.7 0.15 68.9 Morocco 2.0 129.3 0.70 56.4 Tunisia 2.0 122.3 0.39 65.4 East Asia & Pacific 1.1 126.5 0.40 32.3 Europe & Central Asia 2.9 59.2 0.90 74.0 Middle East & North Africa 0.3 11.1 0.15 66.3 75 Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. For commercial perception indices , 1=worst and 7=best. Source: WDI, 2005. Table A.2.5: Railway Indicators, 2004 Access Cost Quality Commercial Avg. Passenger Avg. Freight Railways, passengers Rail Lines Railways, goods Perception of Rail Lines Density Rail Tariff (PPP Rail Tariff carried (million Density transported Railroad (km/1000 people) cent/passenger- (PPP cent/ton- passenger-km) (km/1000 sq km) (million ton-km) Services km) km) Index Algeria 950 0.11 1.50 1945 - - - Morocco 2614 0.06 4.27 5535 7 8 3.2 Tunisia 1242 0.19 12.29 2173 8 6 3.7 East Asia & Pacific 2017 - - 2662 5 13 3.7 Europe & Central Asia 2227 9.3 13.66 9675 911 1114 3.7 Middle East & North Africa 1265 0.1 9.6 2364 5 6 3.5 Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. For commercial perception indices , 1=worst and 7=best. East Asia & Pacific comprises of China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Source: WDI, 2005 and Estache and Goicoechea, 2005. Table A.2.6: Port Indicators, 2004 Access Cost Quality Container port traffic CIF/FOB Freight Commercial Total Merchant (TEU: 20 foot cost (% of Perception of Port Fleet (in 000 grt) equivalent units) imports) Facilities Index Algeria 354724 862 9.3 - Morocco 560682 523 17.4 3.7 Tunisia 230671 175 5.2 4.4 East Asia & Pacific 102039032 1766 9.9 4.2 Europe & Central Asia - 1011 4.5 3.6 Middle East & North Africa 1039369 832 - 4.1 Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. For commercial perception indices , 1=worst and 7=best. East Asia & Pacific comprises of China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Source: WDI, 2005, Review of Maritme Transport 2005 and Estache and Goicoechea, 2005. Table A.2.7: Air Transport Indicators, 2004 Access Quality Air transport, Commercial Air transport, Air transport, registered Perception of Air passengers carried freight (million carrier Transport (millions) tons per km) departures Services Index worldwide Algeria 3.2 21.44 48531.00 - Morocco 3.0 61.90 41526.00 4.8 Tunisia 1.9 20.29 20554.00 5.4 East Asia & Pacific 203.3 13730.1 2078864 4.7 Europe & Central Asia 65.1 2138.5 984537 3.9 Middle East & North Africa 34.0 1103.5 357602 4.9 Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. For commercial perception indices , 1=worst and 7=best. East Asia & Pacific comprises of China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Source: WDI, 2005 and Estache and Goicoechea, 2005. Table A.2.8: Telephone Indicators, 2004 Access Cost Quality Telephone Unmet Cost of Telephone Mobile phone Price basket Price basket Cost of Local average cost Telephone Demand (% of Cellular Local mainlines subscribers for residential for mobile Phone Call of call to US faults (per main Call (US $/3 (per 1,000 (per 1,000 fixed line (US$ (US$ per (US$/3 (US$ per 100 telephone off-peak people) people) per month) month) minutes) three mainlines) lines in minutes) minutes) operation) Algeria 70.7 144.7 10.2 5.1 0.04 0.78 2.08 6 39 Morocco 43.9 313.1 16.0 18.4 0.17 0.33 1.41 25 0 Tunisia 121.2 358.7 6.8 4.7 0.02 0.41 2.28 30 11 East Asia & Pacific 187.9 243.5 5.1 4.5 0.05 0.42 1.2 32 13 Europe & Central Asia 241.7 457.5 10.3 3.5 0.07 0.40 1.61 41 8 Middle East & North Africa 90.6 128.6 8.1 4.9 0.06 0.52 1.66 - 26 76 Source: WDI 2005, ITU 2005, World Bank ICT at a glance tables and Estache and Goicoechea, 2005. Note: Unmet demand is the ratio of telephone mainline listing wait list to the total main lines in operations. Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. Table A.2.9: Internet and other media, 2004 Access Cost Quality International Households Broadband Internet internet host personal Price basket for Internet with subscribers users (per (per 1000 computers (per Internet (US$ bandwidth television (per 1,000 1,000 people) people) 1000 people) per month) (bits per (%) people) person) Algeria 26.1 0.03 7.5 97.5 17.8 1.1 4 Morocco 117.4 0.13 16.3 76.0 25.3 2.1 26 Tunisia 84.1 0.04 33.5 90.2 17.3 0.7 44 East Asia & Pacific 73.8 1.15 39.6 79.6 19.9 13.4 48 Europe & Central Asia 138.0 5.38 77.2 91.8 19.8 2.4 210 Middle East & North Africa 41.5 0.13 19.6 88.0 24.5 0.2 15 Source: WDI 2005, ITU 2005, World Bank ICT at a glance tables. Note: The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. Table A.2.10: Banking, 2004 Sector Structure Access Cost Quality Banking assets Banking assets Domestic Interest rate Bank held by Bank Net held by foreign- Bank credit to spread Lending Overhead government- nonperfoming Interest owned banks (% Concentratio private (lending rate interest rate Costs / owned banks loans to total Margin of total banking n (%) sector (% of minus (%) Total (% of total (%) (%) assets) GDP) deposit rate) Assets (%) banking assets) Algeria 3.9 95.7 97.8 11.0 5.5 8.0 3.3 27.0 4.0 Morocco 20.8 35.0 73.8 56.7 7.9 11.5 2.2 19.4 3.7 Tunisia 15.7 42.7 46.8 65.2 2.0 5.0 2.5 23.7 2.4 East Asia & Pacific 67.6 6.4 60.1 48.5 6.3 13.3 2.7 13.2 4.1 Europe & Central Asia 50.0 12.0 63.1 26.6 5.8 13.6 4.9 5.7 5.1 Middle East & North Africa 15.7 35.0 78.3 39.8 5.5 10.70 2.3 18.0 3.2 Note: Overhead cost is the value of a bank's overhead costs as a share of its total assets. Net interest margin is the value of bank's net interest revenue as a share of its interest-bearing (total earning) assets. Bank concentration is the asset values of 3 largest banks as a share of assets of all commercial banks. Source: Beck et. al(2000),WDI 2005. The most recent data is used beginning with 2004. Table A.2.11: Selected Doing Business Indicators, 2004 Country Starting a Business Hiring and Firing Workers Registering Property Enforcing Contracts Cost (% of Procedures Rigidity of Firing costs Cost (% of Difficulty of Rigidity of Difficulty of Time (days) income per Procedures Procedures Employmen (weeks of Cost (% of (number) Hiring Index Hours Index Firing Index Time (days) property Time (days) (number) capita) t Index (number) debt) wages) value) Algeria 14 26 30 56 60 50 55 17 16 52 9 49 407 28.7 Morocco 5 11 12.2 100 40 40 60 83 3 82 6.1 17 240 17.7 Tunisia 9 14 10.9 61 0 100 54 29 5 57 6.1 14 27 12 East Asia & Pacific 9 57 56 27 39 28 31 59 5 50 5 29 333 49 Europe & Central Asia 10 42 15 35 57 42 45 34 7 132 3 30 337 17 Middle East & North Africa 11 45 72 29 51 36 39 63 6 48 7 40 422 17 Source: Doing Business Indicators, 2005. Table A.2.12: Selected Doing Business Indicators, 2005 Dealing with Licenses Trading Across Borders Closing a Business Recovery Cost (% of Documents for Signatures Time for Documents Signatures Time for Rate(cents country Procedures Time income per export for export export for import for import import Time Cost (% of on the (number) (days) capita) (number) (number) (days) (number) (number) (days) (years) estate) dollar) Algeria 25 244 70.5 8 8 29 8 12 51 3.5 4 38 Morocco 21 217 1303 7 13 31 11 17 33 1.8 18 35 Tunisia 21 154 340 5 8 25 8 12 33 1.3 7 52 East Asia & Pacific 21 189 158 7 8 28 10 10 31 3 24 35 Europe & Central Asia 21 252 154 8 11 32 12 15 43 3 14 30 Middle East & North Africa 20 216 336 7 15 35 11 22 44 4 13 28 Source: Doing Business Indicators, 2005. Table A.2.13: Perceptions on the Financial Sector, 2004 Regulation of Financial Market Venture capital securities Sophistication mobility exchanges (a) (b) ( c) Tunisia 3.6 3.8 4.8 Morocco 3.9 3.4 4.6 Algeria 2 2 3.4 77 Notes: (a) 1=lower than international norms, 7=higher than international norms; (b) 1=difficult, 7=easy) ; (c ) 1=non transparent, ineffective, 7=transparent, effective and independent.; (d) 1=nonexistent and poorly enforced, 7=well defined and strictly enforced. Source: The Arab World Competitiveness Report 2005. Table A.2.14:Perceptions on Infrastructure, 2004 Quality of Overall Railroad Port Air transport Quality of Telephone Technological competition in the infrastructure Infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure electricity infrastructure Readiness internet service Quality Quality quality quality supply quality provider sector Tunisia 4.5 3.7 4.5 4.5 5.7 6.2 4.4 4.2 Morocco 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.4 5.4 6.1 3.2 3.7 Algeria 3.4 2.6 3.4 3.4 4.3 3.5 2.9 2.5 Notes: The perception scales ranges from 1 (poor) to 7 (among the world's best). Source: The Arab World Competitiveness Report 2005. Table A.2.15: Trade Logistics and FDI Cost of Business Business Business impact Efficiency of Openness of Hidden trade importing Impact of impact of Business impact of foreign trade customs customs barriers foreign domestic trade customs of rules on FDI barriers procedures regime equipment barriers procedures (a) (b) (c ) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) Tunisia 4.4 2.3 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.9 Morocco 4.3 2.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 4 4.7 Algeria 3.8 2.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 2.6 3.2 4.3 Notes: (a) 1=important problem, 7=not important problem; (b) in terms of import tariffs, quotas, license fees and bank fees 1==<10%, 2=11-20%, 3=21-30%, 9=>80%; (c )-(e) 1=damaging, 7=beneficial; (f) 1=slow and inefficient, 7=among world's most efficient; (g) 1=highly unfavorable to trade activities, 7 =among world's most liberal trade regime; (h) 1=damaging, 7=beneficial. Source: The Arab World Competitiveness Report 2005. Figures A.2.1to A.2.3: Financial Sector Reform Indices Financial Sector: Banking Reforms Financial Sector: Non-Banking Reforms Financial Sector: Overall Reforms 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Source: Authors' construction using EBRD transition indicator methodology Figure A.2.4 to A.2.9: Infrastructure Reform Indices, 1990-2004 Infrastructure Reforms: Railw ay Infrastructure Reforms: Energy Infrastructure Reforms: Water 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 4 4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3 3 3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 Tunisia Algeria Morocco Tunisia Algeria Morocco Tunisia Algeria Morocco 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Infrastructure Reforms: Roads Infrastructure Reforms: ICT Infrastructure Reforms :Overall Progress 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 4 4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3 3 3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 Tunisia Algeria Morocco Tunisia Algeria Morocco Tunisia Algeria78 Morocco 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Figure A.2.10 to A.15: Investment Climate Reforms, 1990-2004 Investment Climate Reforms :Large- Investment Climate Reforms :Small-Scale Investment Climate Reforms: Competition 4.5 Scale Privatization 4.5 Privatization 4.5 Policy 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco Tunisia Algeria Morocco -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Investment Climate Reforms Investment Climate Reforms :Price Investment Climate Reforms: Trade & 4.5:Governance & Enterprise Restructuring 4.5 Liberalization 4.5 Foreign Exchange System 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco Tunisia Algeria Morocco -0.5 Tunisia Algeria Morocco 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Source: Authors' construction using EBRD transition indicator methodology 79 C. Annex to Chapter 3: Table A.3.1: Predicted Path of Per-Capita Income with no-reforms, (constant 2000 USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 1982 2035 2090 2146 2203 2262 2323 2385 2449 2514 2582 2651 Tunisia 2336 2419 2504 2592 2683 2777 2875 2976 3080 3189 3301 3417 Morocco 1349 1381 1414 1447 1482 1517 1554 1591 1629 1667 1707 1748 Maghreb 5667 5835 6007 6185 6368 6557 6751 6951 7158 7371 7590 7816 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.2: Predicted Path of Per-Capita Income with Maghreb Integration, (constant 2000 USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 1982 2036 2090 2147 2204 2263 2324 2387 2451 2517 2584 2654 Tunisia 2336 2419 2504 2592 2684 2778 2876 2978 3083 3192 3304 3421 Morocco 1349 1381 1414 1448 1483 1518 1555 1592 1630 1669 1709 1750 Maghreb 5667 5835 6009 6187 6371 6560 6755 6956 7164 7377 7597 7824 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.3: Predicted Path of Per-Capita Income arising from RTA between Maghreb and EU (constant 2000 USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 1982.4 2067 2155 2246 2342 2441 2545 2653 2766 2884 3006 3134 Tunisia 2336.5 2436 2539 2647 2760 2877 3000 3127 3260 3399 3543 3694 Morocco 1348.6 1406 1466 1528 1593 1661 1731 1805 1882 1962 2045 2132 Maghreb 5667 5908 6160 6422 6695 6979 7276 7585 7908 8244 8595 8960 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.4: Predicted Per-Capita Growth with Service Policy Reforms (percent) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 2.68 2.97 3.28 3.61 3.96 4.34 4.74 5.17 5.63 6.11 6.63 7.19 Tunisia 3.52 3.75 4.00 4.26 4.53 4.81 5.10 5.41 5.73 6.06 6.41 6.77 Morocco 2.39 2.62 2.87 3.13 3.40 3.68 3.97 4.28 4.60 4.93 5.27 5.63 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.5: Predicted Path of Per-Capita Income with Service Policy Reforms (constant 2000 USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 1982.4 2041 2108 2184 2271 2369 2482 2610 2757 2925 3119 3343 Tunisia 2336.5 2424 2521 2629 2748 2880 3027 3191 3373 3578 3807 4065 Morocco 1348.6 1384 1424 1468 1518 1574 1637 1707 1785 1873 1972 2083 Maghreb 5667 5849 6053 6281 6537 6823 7145 7507 7915 8376 8898 9491 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.7: Predicted Path FDI stock with Service Liberalization and Investment Climate Reforms (billions USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 7.4 8.5945 10.032 11.81 14.04 16.84 20.411 25.01 30.991 38.869 49.37 63.55 Tunisia 18.0 19.341 20.977 22.92 25.23 27.99 31.299 35.3 40.15 46.079 53.373 62.41 Morocco 17.6 20.094 23.062 26.65 31.02 36.37 42.963 51.16 61.419 74.361 90.817 111.9 Maghreb 14.3 16.0 18.0 20.5 23.4 27.1 31.6 37.2 44.2 53.1 64.5 79.3 Source: Authors' calculation using WNDP, 2005 and WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. 80 Table A.3.7: Predicted Path of Per-Capita Income from combined outcome of Maghreb RTA, Maghreb RTA with EU and Service Reforms, (constant 2000 USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 1982 2073 2173 2285 2410 2549 2705 2880 3076 3297 3546 3829 Tunisia 2336 2442 2557 2685 2826 2981 3153 3344 3555 3791 4053 4345 Morocco 1349 1409 1476 1549 1630 1718 1815 1922 2040 2169 2311 2469 Maghreb 5667 5924 6207 6519 6866 7249 7674 8146 8671 9256 9910 10644 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.8: Predicted Path of Non-Oil Export Value of forming Maghreb RTA (constant 2000 USD billions) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Tunisia 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 Morocco 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Maghreb 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.9: Predicted Non-Oil Export Value with Maghreb RTA with EU (constant 2000 USD billions) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.8 Tunisia 6.4 7.1 7.8 8.5 9.4 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.6 14.9 16.4 18.0 Morocco 7.3 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.4 17.0 18.6 20.4 Maghreb 15.8 17.4 19.1 20.9 23.0 25.2 27.7 30.4 33.4 36.6 40.2 44.2 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. Table A.3.10: Predicted Path of Real Non-Oil Export Value with Service Policy Reforms ( constant 2000 USD billion) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Algeria 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.2 Tunisia 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.1 10.9 11.7 12.6 Morocco 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 Maghreb 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 27 30 32 Source: Authors' calculation using WDI, 2005. Note that Maghreb estimates are the sum of individual countries. 81 REFERENCES Achy, L (2005), "Does a free trade area favors an optimum currency area? The Case of Morocco and the European Union", Institut National de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquee, Rabat. Arab World Competitiveness Report (2005), World Economic Forum, Palgrave Micmillan, New York. Adams, R., Dee. 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