Adaptation to Climate Change 51751 Policy Brief Adaptation to climate change must be integrated into development plans and programs Indonesia boasts of having one of the longest coastlines in the world, rich marine biodiversity, and highly productive agriculture and fisheries sectors. This natural wealth, however, is at risk of being damaged by sea-level rise, flooding, drought, and landslides ­ some of the predicted devastating effects of global climate change. Climate change will mainly affect populations living on the coast and those dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture or fisheries for their livelihoods. This means that 65 percent of Indonesians living in coastal areas will be affected, both in densely populated coastal cities as well as in low- lying fishing communities. This also means that rural communities that earn their living from agriculture, fisheries and forest-based activities will be hit hard. Unfortunately, these communities tend to be the poorest of the Indonesian population, with few assets to cope with the impact of climate change. The expected impact of climate change in Indonesia is likely to be large but is still difficult to quantify. Calculations of the long-term direct and indirect impacts to Indonesia's economy indicate significant costs. By 2100, GDP loss is projected to reach 2.5 percent, which is four-times the global mean GDP loss from climate change. If the chance of catastrophic events is considered, the losses could go as high as seven percent Coastline in East Nusa Tenggara Photo: Endro Adinugroho of GDP. This is a significant cost for a country that has productivity. Soil fertility is likely to decline by successfully emerged from the economic crisis of the two to eight percent in the long-term, resulting in late 1990's. a projected decrease in rice yield by four percent per year, soybean by 10 percent and maize by 50 To protect the poorest populations and prevent percent per year. In addition, sea level rise will economic costs that undermine development inundate coastal ponds, affecting fish and prawn achievements, the Government should immediately production throughout the country. begin to adopt climate change adaptation measures. Many adaptation options exist, covering water · Affect on marine biodiversity. It is estimated resources, agriculture, forestry, coastal/marine, and that the changing climate will increase Indonesia's health. Integrating such options into development ocean water temperature by 0.2 to 2.5oC. This will planning and implementation will be one of put additional pressure on Indonesia's 50,000 Indonesia's biggest challenge in the decades to km2 of coral reefs, which are already in dire straits. come. Coral bleaching is expected to increase as a result of rising ocean water temperatures, as has been Indonesia is extremely vulnerable to observed during past El Nino events. climate change · A greater water- and vector- borne disease As an archipelago, Indonesia is vulnerable to multiple burden. Although the link between climate climate change hazards. Though the precise magnitude change and health problems is poorly researched, of these hazards cannot be predicted, some of the there is some potential for water and vector borne most significant ones are estimated to be: diseases to increase. Some speculate that the rise · Modest temperature increase. The mean of number of dengue fever cases during rainy temperature in Indonesia has already increased seasons in Indonesia could have been partially by 0.3oC (observed since 1990). The year 1998 was caused by a warmer climate. the warmest year in the century, with almost 1oC Adaptation options for a changing increase (from the 1961-1990 average). climate · More intense rainfall. It is predicted that due to Adapting to climate change involves a combination climate change, Indonesia will have 2-3 percent of reactive and proactive interventions in many more rainfall per year and shorter rainy seasons (fewer number of rainy days in a year), which then A MORE SUSTAINABLE INDONESIA is one significantly increases the risk of flooding. This will where: change the water balance in the environment and affect hydroelectricity generation and drinking · The costs of environmental degradation and climate change are lowered so that less wealth is diverted water supply. from growth; · Sea level rise. Areas with dense population will · Good environmental management contributes be most affected by sea level rise. And there are to poverty alleviation by reducing impacts on the around 40 million Indonesians living within 10 poor and better sharing of benefits; meters of the average sea level, meaning they are · Renewable resources are used sustainably while the most vulnerable to sea level changes. non-renewable ones are wisely developed for investment in human and physical capital; and · Food security. Climate change will alter · Citizens are aware of and participating in precipitation, evaporation, run-off water, and environmental issues directly or through their soil moisture; and hence will affect agricultural representatives and other organizations. 2 Climate Change Adaptation Options Reactive/Responsive Proactive/Anticipatory Water · Protection of groundwater resources · Better use of recycled water Resources · Improved management and maintenance of · Conservation of water catchment areas existing water supply systems · Improved system of water management · Protection of water catchment areas · Water policy reform including pricing and · Improved water supply irrigation policies · Groundwater and rainwater harvesting and · Development of flood controls and drought desalination monitoring Agriculture · Erosion control · Development of tolerant/resistant crops (to · Dam construction for irrigation drought, salt, insect/pests) · Changes in fertilizer use and application · Research and development · Introduction of new crops · Soil and water management · Soil fertility maintenance · Diversification and intensification of food and plantation crops · Changes in planting and harvesting times · Policy measures, tax incentives/subsidies, free · Switching to different cultivars market · Educational and outreach programs on · Development of early warning systems conservation and management of soil and water Forestry · Improvement of management systems · Creation of parks/reserves, protected areas including control of deforestation, and biodiversity corridors reforestation, and afforestation · Identification/development of species resistant · Promoting agroforestry to improve forest to climate change goods and services · Better assessment of the vulnerability of · Development/improvement of national forest ecosystems fire management plans · Monitoring of species · Improvement of carbon storage in forests · Development and maintenance of seed banks · Forest fire early warning systems Coastal/ · Protection of economic infrastructure · Integrated coastal zone management Marine · Public awareness to enhance protection of · Better coastal planning and zoning coastal and marine ecosystems · Development of legislation for coastal · Building sea walls and beach reinforcement protection · Protection and conservation of coral · Research and monitoring of coasts and reefs, mangroves, sea grass, and littoral coastal ecosystems vegetation Health · Public health management reform · Development of early warning systems · Improved housing and living conditions · Better and/or improved disease/vector · Improved emergency response surveillance and monitoring · Improvement of environmental quality · Changes in urban and housing design PS: The options in bold are already called for in Indonesia's National Action Plan 3 For further information, please contact: World Bank Office Jakarta Indonesia Stock Exchange Building, Tower 2, 12th floor Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav. 52-53, Jakarta 12190 - Indonesia Ph. 62-21 5299 3000 fax. 62-21 5299 3111 To download the full report "Investing in a More Sustainable Indonesia", visit our website: www.worldbank.org/id sectors. The Government of Indonesia has already 2. Increase climate resilience by adding `safety incorporated some adaptation options in Indonesia's margin' in new investments, National Action Plan Addressing Climate Change and 3. Favor reversible and flexible options, and National Development Planning Responses to Climate Change (see items in box, highlighted in bold). Other 4. Plan adaptation actions based on scenario analysis; adaptation options are also available and should be review and adjust the scenarios according to new considered. information. The cost of adaptation may be high. Estimates Adaptation to climate change should be show that for Indonesia and three other countries integrated to mainstream development programs. in Southeast Asia, the cost of adaptation for the It is important that local capacity for adaptation be agriculture and coastal zones would be, on average, strengthened, including improving central-local about USD 5 billion per year by 2020. However, for coordination, planning and financing. The public Indonesia, by 2050, the annual benefit of avoiding should also be made more aware about climate damages from climate change is likely to exceed change, and resilience of poor households and other the annual cost. By 2100, it is predicted that the vulnerable groups should be improved. More studies benefit could reach 1.6 percent of GDP (compared to will also be needed to gain a better understanding of the cost at 0.12 percent of GDP). the local impacts of climate change. As a massive adaptation agenda will be unmanageable if addressed simultaneously, it is necessary to select Background information on CEA Report and prioritize options and activities. A guide to The Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) report prioritize options for adapting to climate change highlights underlying challenges to Indonesia's is provided in the 2010 World Bank Development environment and management of its natural resources. Report. This involves four steps to: The initial purpose in preparing the report was to guide World Bank support to Indonesian institutions for 1. Prioritize investment and policy options that more sustainable development. However, the report provide economic and social benefits in addition also provides information that may contribute to the Government's medium term development plans under to helping adapt to climate change, the policies of the new administration. Printed on cyclus offset (recycled paper) 4