Grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Phase 1A. Review and Assessment of Potential Sites The Monaragala Site GRID CONNECTED SOLAR PV PROJECT IN SRI LANKA. PHASE 1A. REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL SITES THE MONARAGALA SITE *  QUALITY CONTROL SHEET DOCUMENT SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1 PROJECT Grid Connected Solar PV Project in Sri Lanka CODE IFC project Contract 7182182 Initials LTA/CGS AUTHOR th Date 6 June 2018 Initials JPG VERIFIED th Date 6 June 2018 RECIPIENT International Finance Corporation (IFC) Ed.1 First complete and reviewed, version submitted to IFC for review and comment. The document covers the description of the Monaragala sites and provides an initial feasibility NOTES assessment about the deployment of a sizeable utility-scale solar PV project. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report This page is intentionally left blank SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 2 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has been invited by the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) to provide transaction advisory services about utility-scale solar Photovoltaic (PV) IPP (Independent Power Producer) project. In this framework, IFC has engaged TYPSA to provide consulting services in the area energy engineering, environmental and social evaluation. The services to be provided by TYPSA are structured in two phases. Phase 1, refers to conducting due diligence on some candidate sites and supporting the preparation of the transaction structure. The first step, in Phase 1 is to assess the potential suitability of candidate sites, from the technical, environmental and social points of view. Results corresponding to this first step are reported in this document. The Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SEA) has been the nominated as the Agency responsible for providing candidate sites. Three sites had been proposed for consideration: • Pooneryn site • Monaragala sites 1 and 2 This report pertains to the Monaragala sites. A separate document covering the Pooneryn site has been already published. These sites are part of a wide area to the south-east of the town of Monaragala that has been studied as a potential home to new utility-scale PV capacity. The study area is situated between the high mountains at the western end and the flatter terrain that covers the broad eastern and southern plain. It combines different geographic and geological features and can be considered hilly, and steep but also as a rolling terrain in some areas within an elevation range of 160 to 450 metres. The study indicates that the area at large and the available interconnection could probably support a total solar capacity around 100MW; maybe more. The topography, geotechnical and vegetation distribution features in the area does not make easy to find one single sizeable suitable plot to would host one huge PV plant. Our team recommends that rather than considering one single site the objective PV capacity could be reached by setting up in two or three plants, so that adequate quality plots can be found and the environmental and social footprints of the plant could be better managed. The sites so chosen would offer attractive solar resources for renewable energy generation. The sites would show as main environmental values, a varied vegetation landscape that includes grown-up trees, and a transient elephant population. From the social perspective, the area is sparsely occupied, with very small and isolated human settlements mostly devoted to the traditional Chena cultivation, which involves temporary occupation of lands. Typsa thinks that it is possible to find ways to develop adequately develop the Moneragala areas for renewable energy in economically attractive terms while reducing the environmental impacts to acceptable levels. To deal with the social, potential compensatory measure might be needed for potentially affected dwellers. To safely deal with the transient elephant population, we recommend setting up adequate wide free corridors and protecting the solar facilities with proper fencing. As seen in this report, the nearby Monaragala substation offers very a convenient evacuation option for a large PV plant. This substation is new and well maintained and has space readily available for a new 132kV entry bay. Under this approach, the various nearby PV plants would be interlinked using 33kV lines (some few km long), and the plant closest to Monaragala would then host a 33/132kV step-up substation, which would be connected with the Monaragala substation by means of a new aerial 132kV line (estimated to be around 20km long). The short circuit power estimated to be available at the Monaragala substation would indicate that the node can accept the proposed 100MW of non-dispatchable solar energy. However, this discussion needs SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 3 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report to be completed, in the future, with an in-depth analysis of the robustness of the grid at the point of interconnection. Also, it has been estimated that most of the energy that would be produced at the Moneragala sites, would have to be exported away from the node, as the local demand seems to be low. To achieve this, CEB has indicated that line reinforcements in the 132kV lines going to Inginiyagala and Rantembe will be needed (the cost of these reinforcements has not been considered in the analysis).. As a result, both interconnection and environmental criteria suggest that a sensible way to exploit the excellent energy resources in the Monaragla region would be to launch a large solar project by merging two or three solar medium scale solar plants.. As a summary, our team thinks that it is possible to develop a large utility-scale solar energy project in the Monaragala Region, this would improve the energy supply in the area, in an economically attractive way; and deploy the assets on the ground in a form that would be respectful to the existing environmental and social situation in region. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 4 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report TABLE OF CONTENTS 0. REFERENCE MATERIAL..................................................................................................................... 6 0.A LIST OF ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................................................... 6 0.B LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................ 7 0.CLIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................................. 9 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 10 2. PROJECT BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................ 11 3. ACCOUNT OF STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS AND FIELD WORK ................................................... 14 3.1. MEETINGS ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 3.2. BRIEF ACCOUNT OF FIELD WORK PERFORMED ...................................................................................... 15 4. THE MONARAGALA SITES .............................................................................................................. 16 4.1. TOPOGRAPHIC AND GEOTECHNICAL FEATURES .................................................................................... 18 4.2. SITE ACCESS................................................................................................................................................. 24 4.3. GENERAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS ............................................................................... 25 4.4. POTENTIAL AREAS OF SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN AND POSSIBLE MITIGATION STRATEGIES ............................................................................................................................................ 27 5. INTERCONNECTION OPTIONS FOR MONARAGALA .................................................................... 29 5.1. DISCUSSION ON GRID ROBUSTNESS ........................................................................................................ 29 5.2. MONARAGALA SUBSTATION ....................................................................................................................... 30 5.3. SIZING MONARAGALA SOLAR PROJECT ................................................................................................... 31 5.4. BRIEF COMMENT ABOUT THE SRI LANKA GRID CODE ............................................................................ 32 6. PRODUCTION STUDY ....................................................................................................................... 34 6.1. SOLAR RESOURCE AND WIND ESTIMATE ................................................................................................. 34 6.2. PRODUCTION ESTIMATE ............................................................................................................................. 37 7. TENTATIVE LAYOUTS SOLAR FIELD AND INTERCONNECTION ................................................ 39 7.1. TENTATIVE LAYOUTS FOR THE SOLAR FIELDS........................................................................................ 39 7.2. INTERCONNECTION CONCEPT ................................................................................................................... 40 8. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................... 42 8.1. CAPEX ............................................................................................................................................................ 42 8.2. LCOE ESTIMATES ......................................................................................................................................... 42 9. SITE EVALUATION SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 44 9.1. MONARAGALA SITE EVALUATION MATRIX ................................................................................................ 44 9.2. MONARAGALA EVALUATION SUMMARY .................................................................................................... 49 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 50 ANNEXES I: PVSYST OUTPUTS FOR MONARAGALA SOLAR FIELD ................................................ 51 SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 5 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 0. REFERENCE MATERIAL 0.A List of acronyms CAPEX Capital Expenditure CEA Sri Lanka Central Environmental Authority CEB Ceylon Electricity Board CSP Concentrated Solar Power DHI Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance FDSL Forest Department Sri Lanka GHI Direct Global Irradiance HEC Human-Elephant Conflict LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy MoPRE Ministry of Power and Renewable Energy OHL Over Head Line OPEX Operational Expenditure PV Photovoltaic SC Short circuit SCL Short Circuit Level SCR Short Circuit Ratio SEA: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority ToR: Terms of Reference SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 6 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 0.B List of figures Note: figure numbers are composed by two numbers separated by a hyphen (like a-b). The first indicate the document section where the figure is located and the second the order in which the figure is displayed in that section Figure 2-1 Evolution of the GDP in Sri Lanka ............................................................................................ 11 Figure 2-2 Yearly evolution of the energy demand in Sri Lanka ................................................................ 11 Figure 2-3 Sri Lanka Electricity Generation Mix (2015) ............................................................................. 12 Figure 2-4 Sri Lanka 2011 electricity transmission system scheme .......................................................... 13 Figure 2-5 Sri Lanka typical electricity demand profile ............................................................................... 13 Figure 4-1 The Moneragala area under consideration ............................................................................... 16 Figure 4-2 Location of the Monaragala 1 & 2 sites .................................................................................... 17 Figure 4-3 Relative location of the two Monaragala sites .......................................................................... 18 Figure 4-4 Geological maps of Sri Lanka ................................................................................................... 19 Figure 4-5 Rock outcrops typically found in the area under investigation .................................................. 19 Figure 4-6 Farm located within the area under consideration .................................................................... 20 Figure 4-7 Typical landscape in the area under consideration .................................................................. 20 Figure 4-8 Monaragala site 1...................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 4-9 Overview of Monaragala site 2 ................................................................................................. 21 Figure 4-10 Wide view at the Monaragala 2 site ........................................................................................ 22 Figure 4-11 Plantations at the Monaragala 2 site ...................................................................................... 22 Figure 4-12 Looking south in site 2. Some superficial rocks and crops can be observed. ....................... 22 Figure 4-13 South view from the centre of area 2: rocky prominences and scattered trees. .................... 23 Figure 4-14 South border of Area 2. Looking NW ...................................................................................... 23 Figure 4-15 South border of Area 2. Looking North 1 ................................................................................ 23 Figure 5-1 Power Factor Variation and Reactive Power Capability ........................................................... 32 Figure 6-1 Irradiation map of Sri Lanka ...................................................................................................... 34 Figure 6-2 Average monthly temperature for MN, SG and NASA databases ............................................ 34 SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 7 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 6-3 Average monthly GHI for MN, SG, PVGIS and NASA databases ........................................... 35 Figure 6-4 Average monthly DHI for MN, SG, PVGIS and NASA databases ........................................... 35 Figure 6-5 Meteorological data used in the Monaragala PVSyst simulation ............................................. 36 Figure 7-1 Simplified SLD showing connection of the first phase solar field............................................. 41 SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 8 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 0.C List of TABLES Note: table numbers are composed of two digits separated by a hyphen (like a-b). The first indicates the document section where the figure is located and the second the order in which the figure is displayed in that section Table 3-1 Account of stakeholder interaction ............................................................................................. 14 Table 3-2 Account of fieldwork dates ......................................................................................................... 15 Table 5-1 Computed SCL values at Moneragala substation...................................................................... 32 Table 6-1 Sri Lanka’s Wind Hazard Map ................................................................................................... 37 Table 6-2 Energy output of various solar configurations at Moneragala ................................................... 37 Table 7-1 Possible location of 30&40 MW plants ...................................................................................... 39 Table 7-2 Regular layouts for 30&40 MW plants ...................................................................................... 40 Table 8-1 Overall estimated CAPEX ......................................................................................................... 42 • SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 9 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 1. INTRODUCTION The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has been invited by the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) to provide transaction advisory services about utility-scale solar Photovoltaic (PV) IPP (Independent Power Producer) project. In this framework, IFC has engaged TYPSA to provide consulting services in the area energy engineering, environmental and social evaluation. The services to be provided by TYPSA are structured in two phases. Phase 1, refers to conducting due diligence on some candidate sites and supporting the preparation of the transaction structure. The first step, in Phase 1 is to assess the potential suitability of candidate sites, from the technical, environmental and social points of view. Results corresponding to this first step are reported in this document. The Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SEA) has been the nominated as the Agency responsible for providing candidate sites. Three sites had been proposed for consideration: • Pooneryn site • Monaragala sites 1 and 2 The Monaragala sites are situated in the Monaragala region, in the south-east part of the country. This report pertains to these two sites. A separate report has been published about the Pooneryn site. The Typsa team has visited the two Monaragala sites and conducted a series of meetings with SEA, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), the Central Environmental Authority (CEA), the Sri Lanka Forest Department (FDSL) and the Ministry of Power and Renewable Energy (MoPRE). This work has been conducive to the preparation of this report. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 10 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 2. PROJECT BACKGROUND Sri Lanka has been enjoying a fast economic growth for more than a decade with a GDP growth rate (in local currency units) mostly placed above the 4% mark for more than a decade (see figure 2-1). Figure 2-1 Evolution of the GDP in Sri Lanka As a natural sequel energy demand has been growing (25% from 2005 to 2017), see figure 2-2. At the same time the power demand has been mostly met by conventional energy sources. Figure 2-2 Yearly evolution of the energy demand in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka primary energy generation mix is primarily based on a set of traditional sources, such as oil (39%), Coal (10%) and local biomass (39%). The electricity component of the energy mix is also significantly dependent on non-renewable thermal technology, as well as on major renewable hydro plants (see figure 2-3). Nowadays, renewable energy sources play a modest role in the electricity generation mix. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 11 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 2-3 Sri Lanka Electricity Generation Mix (2015) The described energy generation situation entails a high cost, both in terms of fuel imports and greenhouse emissions. As a result, the GoSL plans to augment the share of cost-competitive renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. In this scenario, IFC has been invited by Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SEA) to provide transaction advisory services in relation to a solar Photovoltaic (PV) project of at least 100 MW. This project would be structured as DBFOT, where a private sector actor will develop, build, finance and operate the project and SEA would provide access to suitable land resources. As part of this scheme, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) will purchase the generated electricity as per a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). CEB would also cooperate in the development of the required transmission infrastructure. CEB, is a state-owned integrated utility in Sri Lanka and system operator in most of the country. CEB’s transmission system comprises of 220kV and 132kV transmission network interconnected to switching stations, grid substations and power stations. CEB generation is made of hydro, thermal and wind power plants connected to the transmission system at the above-mentioned voltage levels. The total installed capacity of all hydropower stations owned and operated by CEB is 1377 MW. The total installed capacity of all thermal power plants owned by CEB is 1444MW. In addition, 671 MW of private thermal power plants are connected to the system. Approximately 437 MW of embedded Non-Convectional Renewable Energy plants are connected to the national grid. Out of this, 288 MW of mini hydro plants, 128 MW of wind power plants, 19.6 MW of Wood fuel power plants and 1.4MW Solar power plants are presently connected to the system. At the end of 2014, total installed capacity of the system is 3932 MW. A representation of CEB’s transmission system is shown below (figure 2-4): SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 12 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 2-4 Sri Lanka 2011 electricity transmission system scheme The Sri Lanka demand curve follows profile with typically two peaks, the highest one at night (19:30) with around 2100 MW and a second one during the day (11:30) with around 1750 MW (see figure 2-5): Figure 2-5 Sri Lanka typical electricity demand profile Due to the expected growth of the electrical demand in coming years, CEB has prepared a long term investment plan in order to assure the demand coverage and grid stability through new generation (including renewable) and grid expansion and interconnections. In this context, some steady state and transient studies have been performed under different scenarios using PSS/E models of the grid. To assure the safe connection of the new facilities (new generation and new significant loads) a grid code has been prepared (last version dated January 2018), that it is to supersede the actual CEB Guide for Grid Interconnection for Embedded Generators dated December 2000 (this grid code is analysed by Typsa in a separate document, and briefly commented hereinafter). SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 13 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 3. ACCOUNT OF STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS AND FIELD WORK Within the scope of this project, the Typsa team has visited Sri Lanka on three different occasions. In each of these visits, Typsa’s team has: (i) had several meetings in Colombo with crucial stakeholders (ii) made field trips to the sites to conduct visual inspection. 3.1. MEETINGS This is the account of the meetings held in Colombo during the three trips done, so far, in the course of the contract. Trip # Date Stakeholder Scope of the meeting th 1 February 27 , 2017 IFC Kick off meeting th 1 February 27 , 2017 CEB Discussion of the project program th 1 February 27 , 2017 SEA Discussion of the project program nd 1 March 2 , 2018 CEB Discussion of interconnection issues st 2 December 21 , 2917 Ministry of Energy and CEB Presentation of preliminary findings. th 3 March 13 , 2018 SEA Pooneryn combined project th 3 March 14 , 2018 CEB Discussion of interconnection issues th 3 March 14 , 2018 Central Environmental Agency Discussion with CEA th 3 March 15 , 2018 CEB Discussion of interconnection issues Ministry of Finance & Media. National Agency for Public- th 3 March 15 , 2018 Private Partnership Presentation of preliminary findings. Table 3-1 Account of stakeholder interaction SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 14 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 3.2. BRIEF ACCOUNT OF FIELD WORK PERFORMED Visit to all of the three sites was done in all cases, by a team consultants (2 or 3 consultants) from Typsa. The exact dates in which these sites visits where completed are shown here below: Date Site th st February 28 and March 1 , 2017 Moneragala 1 site & Substation th th December 19 and 20 , 2018 Pooneryn site & Kilinochchi Substation th th March 14 and 15 , 2018 Moneragala 2 site Table 3-2 Account of fieldwork dates SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 15 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 4. THE MONARAGALA SITES In the course of work, in February 2017 (see section 3.2. the Typsa team first visit a site located some 19 km to the South West of the town of Monaragala. This site is referred to here as Monaragala site 1. Later in March 2018, the team visit a second site located in the same area, referred to in here as Monaragala 2. This site is approximately located 5 km the South West of the first Monaragala site. Both sites appear to be part of the wide area with relatively uniform landscape and geomorphological features, extending to the East and South of the town of Monaragala. Figure 4-1 The Moneragala area under consideration In the course of the second visit, personnel from the Sri’s Lanka Forest Department indicated that two the sites were suggested as mere possible sites but that the Forest Department owned a wider area around these sites, that could be considered to locate suitable plots for the future solar PV energy plants. Our description of this wide area is based on our observation of the sites actually visited and on the general perception by travelling across the area. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 16 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report The two sites under primary consideration can be approximately depicted as rectangles as shown in the figures below. Monaragala 1: (March 2017) • Longitude: • UTM 550363 E / 81º 27’ 20.72” E • Latitude: • UTM 748959 N / 6º 46’ 31.93” N • Huso:44 N • Average elevation: 150m Monaragala 2: (March 2018) • Longitude: • UTM 553443 E / 81º 29’ 0.94” E • Latitude: • UTM 745103 N / 6º 44’ 26.27” N • Huso:44 N • Average elevation: 120m. Figure 4-2 Location of the Monaragala 1 & 2 sites The two sites are, as indicated, relative close (see figure below). SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 17 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 4-3 Relative location of the two Monaragala sites 4.1. TOPOGRAPHIC AND GEOTECHNICAL FEATURES The Monaragala district is located within a transitional zone that goes from the central highlands to flat lowlands. In particular, the study area is situated between the mountains at the west and the flatter terrain that covers the broad eastern and southern plain. It combines different geographic and geological features and can be considered hilly, and steep but also as a rolling terrain in some areas within an elevation range of 160 to 450 metres. The information gathered from publicly available sources indicate that the underlying substrate is on Vijayan Complex, but near to the transition of the Highland complex (see figure 4-4). During our visit, we found what mostly appeared to be soils of loamy to clayey texture. They were characterised by a dark grey to blackish coloured of at least 25 cm thick and had a crumb structure. It is expected that saturation would be medium to high, which would generally increase with depth. We could also observe some sub-surface consisting of sandy clay to gravelly clay. According to the information received from the Forest Department and SEA, these soils are wet or even inundated during most of the rainy season. According to the “Distribution of Benchmark Soil in the Intermediate Zone of Sri Lanka” (Soil Society of Sri Lanka), the area of Siyambalanduwa (to the West of Monaragala) also presents areas of bed rock exposures. Our observations confirm this point as we also detected numerous large rocks emerging with areas of clays suggesting a very composite substrate (see figure 4-5 as an example). SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 18 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 4-4 Geological maps of Sri Lanka Figure 4-5 Rock outcrops typically found in the area under investigation According to the Forest Department, the Kotiyagala- Wattegama forest reserve where the sites are proposed spreads over 29,000ha, of which around 5,000ha remain undisturbed. During our visit, we could SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 19 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 1 note dispersed encroached cultivation plots (Chena cultivation ), we could also see some logging activity, some cattle and some industrial farming. Figure 4-6 Farm located within the area under consideration The forest cover varies in density, moving from some dense area to wide clear patches. . Figure 4-7 Typical landscape in the area under consideration The terrain is covered with high vegetation in many areas. It is difficult to guess the topography only by mere observation at ground level. A topographic survey of the area would be highly valuable for the selection of the most suitable plots within the broad area under consideration.. Our observations indicate that both sites (Monaragala 1 and 2) were very similar regarding physical characteristics. They combine areas of high trees, high vegetation and rocky elevations with clear and flat areas, of surface 1-2 hectares maximum, which are used for cultivation (Chena) and small orchards. 1 Chena is regarded as the oldest form of cultivation in Sri Lanka, extending as far back as 5000 years in Sri Lankan history, typically involving small patches of land, situated in forest areas, that are cultivated relatively short periods of time before being abandoned. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 20 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report But some differences could be mentioned between the Monaragala 1 and 2 sites. Typsa noted that the terrain is particular undulant at site 1, where there are abundant small hills surrounded and covered with vegetation. In general, area 1 shows a more dense and high vegetation while area 2 has more areas with only low vegetation (grass). Figure 4-8 Monaragala site 1 On the other hand, area of site 2 shows a more regular terrain. Nevertheless, we could also find some rocky outcrops that should be avoided as removing the rocks would be to economically unattractive. Figure 4-9 Overview of Monaragala site 2 Area 2 shows a slight north-facing slope at the northern side while the southern half has a more favourable south facing tilt. The area shows some clears (slightly larger than those we could observe in Area 1) and is surrounded by some hills of around 200 meter high. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 21 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 4-10 Wide view at the Monaragala 2 site At both sites, we could not find extensive clear areas that could be suitable for developing large PV plants. The most flat and appropriate areas for deploying a PV plant seemed to be captured for cultivation. The Chena type of cultivation is seasonal and farmers usually stay in the site during some months, living in temporary huts Figure 4-11 Plantations at the Monaragala 2 site The best areas for setting up a PV plant are not very large and are frequently surrounded by significant amount of high vegetation including trees. Figure 4-12 Looking south in site 2. Some superficial rocks and crops can be observed. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 22 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 4-13 South view from the centre of area 2: rocky prominences and scattered trees. Figure 4-14 South border of Area 2. Looking NW Figure 4-15 South border of Area 2. Looking North 1 SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 23 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 4.2. SITE ACCESS The access for the area under consideration uses the A4 road, passing by Monaragala and surrounding the Maragala Mountain (1111 m altitude.) by the north face and then following to Kodayanna Junction (close to Bownbagahewela) and then turn to South. The Forest Department indicated that currently it is not possible to have a more direct access from the West. Figure 4 14 Access route to Moneragala 1 site During our first visit in March 2017, we intended to reach the area with our four-wheel drive cars and found 4 km of a quite poor dirt muddy road due the recent rains. Due to road situation, we had to eventually walk to the site. Figure 4 14 Access route get muddy during the rainy season The access for site 2 uses a similar route as for site 1 but we could reach Wattegama through a paved road. At that point, one has driven for approximately 34 km from Monaragala town. From Wattegama, the SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 24 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report access to the site turns into a dirt and narrow road and we had to change to special vehicle (farm tractor). The distance to the site from that point is approximately seven kilometres. Figure 4 14 Access route to Moneragala 2 site In general, the access roads are hardly suitable for heavy traffic and even four-wheel drive cars could sometimes have occasional problems. Roads would need to be widened and conditioned for transportation of materials and equipment. This would be especially needed in wet season as the type of soil in roads seems to turn in to a thick mud after the rains. Occasionally the routes cross some rivers (with limited water flow at the time of visit). Some new small bridges would also be needed and some old existing one would need to be reconditioned. Although the existing roads can be used for access (after performing some reconditioning works), we suggest that alternative routes could be explored. As the Gen-Tie line to the substation would need to be executed from scratch, maybe a more direct access from the West could be found avoiding the travel time from Monaragala (see figure at the beginning of this section). At any rate, a suitable access to the site would need to be planned and executed. 4.3. GENERAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS Biogeographically, the proposed project area lies within the low country Dry Zone. Floristically it comes under Dry and Arid Lowlands Floristic Zone. Tropical Dry Mixed Evergreen Forests {Manilkara Community, Mixed community (Chloroxylon-Vitex-Berrya-Schleichera series)}, Tropical Thorn Forests (Manilkara-Chloroxylon-Salvadora-Randia series), Damana and Villu Grasslands, Flood-plain Wetlands, Riverine and Gallery Forests are typical natural vegetation formations in Dry and Arid Lowlands Floristic Zone. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 25 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 4 14 Wetness regions in Sri Lanka The vegetation cover in the sites comprises of three main vegetation types, namely Disturbed habitats due to chena cultivation, Riparian habitats and Rock outcrops with tree-dominated vegetation. A brief description of these three habitat types are provided below: • Disturbed habitats due to chena cultivation: most of the area (about 80%) identified for development falls into this category. At the time of the initial field investigation, few Zea mays (Corn) cultivations and water melon cultivations were observed. Rest of the area is abandoned after cultivation. These lands are heavily invaded by alien invasive grass species Panicum maximum. Few tree species such as Drypetes sepiaria, Adina cordifolia can be seen scattered throughout this habitat, which are the remnants of the destroyed forest. The soil looks very good for cultivation. This habitat type is patchy since the two other habitat types distributed in to this main habitat type. • Riparian habitat: There are some small, seasonal streams within the site. Very thin strip of riparian vegetation has been retained along these streams. It consists of shrubs and trees. Drypetes sepiaria, Dimorphocalyx glabellus, Diospyros ebenum, Diospyros ovalifolia, Terminalia arjuna, Garcinia spicata are the dominant species observed in this habitat. This vegetation helps to reduce the soil erosion. • Rock outcrops with tree-dominated vegetation: Forest cover in this habitat has remained undisturbed due the ground condition not being suitable for cultivation. This habitat lies at higher elevation than the other two. It contains typical dry zone forest habitats comprising of species such as Cordia dichotoma, Stereospermum tetragonum, Drypetes sepiaria, Diospyros ebenum, Manilkara hexandra, Vitex altissima, Albizia odoratissima. Other environmental aspects worth mentioning are: • Floral assemblage: Floral assemblage comprise mostly of common species as the site remains highly disturbed. Two nationally threatened species including the endangered (EN) Diospyros ebenum and vulnerable (VU) Manilkara hexandra was observed in relatively undisturbed riparian SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 26 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report and rock outcrop associated vegetation. In addition, two species of nationally near threatened species were recorded in riparian and rock outcrop associated vegetation. • Faunal Assemblage: The faunal assemblage comprise of common species as there is very little natural vegetation cover in the area identified for project implementation. The site is used as a feeding area by the globally endangered (EN) Asian elephants Elephas maximus. The project area does not have any permanent human settlements. This area is currently under heavy seasonal cultivation of corn. During the cultivation season the farmers establish temporary dwellings to tend to their crops. 4.4. POTENTIAL AREAS OF SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN AND POSSIBLE MITIGATION STRATEGIES The following specific potential environmental concerns are noted and should be further investigated: • Impact on the local communities: Even though there are no permanent settlements if the area identified for developing the area is used extensively for seasonal cultivation under rain-fed irrigation. Therefore, the implementation of the project will result in a loss of livelihoods for these farmers. • Impact on Habitats: Nearly 80% of the area identified for project activities can be defined as lands abandoned after cultivation that is covered with invasive alien grass species Panicum maximum. This habitat does not support any critical species and therefore loss of habitat is not a major concern. • Impact on Wildlife: Since the site selected for the proposed project does not support critical species it will not have a significant impact on wildlife. However, it is strongly recommended that relatively undisturbed riparian and rock outcrop associated vegetation should not be disturbed during project implementation as these small habitat patches are the only remnants of the natural habitats that existed in the area and functions as the only remaining natural habitats for fauna and flora inhabiting the area. The area supports both Asian elephant herds and resident males throughout the year. It is likely that there is a high seasonal change in elephant presence related to cultivation. The adjoining area has a high level of human-elephant conflict (HEC). Therefore, this area is also likely to have a high level of HEC. Given the extent of the project area (approximately 300 ha) it is unlikely to have a significant impact on elephant conservation or HEC. However, the development will mean that elephants lose approximately 300 ha of foraging area. • Impact on the protected areas declared under National or International laws: The site selected for the project is designated as a forest reserve. However, the area has been under massive cultivation for many years and therefore does not qualify as a forest reserve any further. The site lies in close proximity to Kumbukkana Conservation Forest and Ruhunaa and Kumana National Parks are also located south of the project site. The proposed activities will not directly or indirectly impact these protected areas. The two main mitigation measures are anticipated: • First, providing suitable compensation for the farmers that are currently using the project site for seasonal cultivation and, SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 27 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report • Second, mitigation measures against the impact of elephants on the installation. Therefore the solar farms will have to be protected from elephants, which can be easily achieved by erecting an electric fence around the perimeter of the development area. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 28 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 5. INTERCONNECTION OPTIONS FOR MONARAGALA 5.1. DISCUSSION ON GRID ROBUSTNESS The amount of new intermittent renewable energy capacity that a node in an electrical grid can typically accept is dependent on carrying capacity of the grid at the node and on the electrical strength of the grid at the point of interconnection. The strength of the electric power system is defined as the ability of the system to maintain its voltage during the injection of reactive power. In comparison with weaker systems, stronger systems will experience less voltage change following an injection of reactive power. Short Circuit Ratio (SCR), defined as the ratio of the interconnected grid’s short circuit MVA (before connecting the generator) to the MW size of the interconnecting generator, has been utilised to quantify the strength of the electric power system with respect to the interconnecting generator. The lower the SCR, the weaker the electric power grid will be. Weak electrical systems become more troublesome when renewable sources with fast controllers are connected to them. This is because the voltage/reactive power control loops within these electronic-based generation units are capable of almost instantaneous reactive power injection in 2 response to any voltage change at the point of interconnection . A first approach to estimating how much renewable energy capacity can be connected to a given node can be obtained by using the so-called Short Circuit Ratios (SCR), arithmetically defined as follows. SCR = Short circuit power at the POI (without generator) / Generation capacity The short-circuit power at the POI naturally depends on the amount of generation and demand at any given moment in time. It is not, therefore, a constant value. The generation capacity also varies along the day. The use of the SCR ratio is then done, by looking for those scenarios where the conditions pose a threat to the grid stability. For a solar project, for example, that would be around the central hours of the day, when the solar generation can be expected to reach a peak. For wind projects, the assessment needs to include the night hours, where possibly both other sources of production and demand are in the low part of their daily profile. Estimation of the short circuit power at any point in the grid can be done using a grid model. CEB has the Sri Lanka grid modelled using the well know PSS/E software and has information about the generation and demand scenarios typical of the Sri Lanka electricity power system. TYPSA team had run the grid model obtaining the SCL values for the Monaragala substation (provided below). The SCR values obtained can then be used as a proxy to do an estimate of the renewable energy generation capacity, by setting up some criteria about which are acceptable SCR ranges. The technical literature here does not seem to show unanimous rules about which are acceptable SCR values for solar or wind generation facilities. For example, Kundur (see reference 5) indicate that SCR above 5 denotes high system strength, whereas SCR between 3 and 5 would correspond to moderate strength situations, 2 Fast reactive power injection/absorption to a weak grid, characterized by high Volt/VAR sensitivity, may translate to un-damped voltage oscillations. Therefore, apart from the system strength, the speed of the voltage controllers associated with the renewable sources has an impact on the dynamic response of the renewable source and the stability of the interconnected grid. While reducing the voltage controller gain will slow down the voltage controller response associated with the renewable sources and could mitigate the voltage oscillations, it will also slow down the post-contingency voltage recovery. The balance between the post-fault transient voltage recovery and a stable response is critical to grid integration studies for renewable sources connecting to weaker portions of the grid. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 29 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report and values below 3 would signal weak condition. Kundur and others (see, for examples 3) also suggests that with modern in the AC and DC control systems, SCR values above 3 could be considered as depicting a high stability scenario. 5.2. MONARAGALA SUBSTATION The closest facility that could serve as a conduit for energy evacuation out of the Monaragala region under consideration would be Monaragala substation located at the main road between Buttala and Monaragala towns, 3km south from Hulandawa. (Lat: 6º 50’6.87”N / Lon: 81º18’54.97”E). The substation is located around 20 km northwest from the Monaragala 1 site and 20 km from Monaragala 2 site. Figure 4 14 Front view of the Moneragala substation Our visit to the Monaragala substation revealed a fairly new facility in apparently good maintenance conditions. Figure 4 14 View of the Moneragala substation and the control room An entry bay on the 132 kV side seems to be readily available to bring a 132 kV Gen-Tie from the future Monaragala solar plants. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 30 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Figure 4 14 Areal view of the Moneragala substation. The Monaragala substation provides service to the community around the substation using several 33kV feeders. We observed, at the time of the visit (late afternoon in March), that the demand was relatively low (around 10MW) when compared with the size of the substation. When asking to CEB employees on site, they confirmed this to be a feature of the facility. As a result, most of the produced energy by the future solar plants would need to be exported using the existing 132kV lines to Inginiyagala and Rantembe. In latter meeting at Colombo, CEB officials indicated that to ensure transportation of the energy these, or part of them would need to be reinforced. Figure 4 14 Scheme of Sri Lanka’s grid around Monaragala. Another aspects that need to be checked, in addition to the carrying capacity of the export lines, is the strength of the grid at the presumed point of interconnection, i.e. Monaragala substation. 5.3. SIZING MONARAGALA SOLAR PROJECT Typsa has run the Sri Lanka’ grid model, kindly provided by CEB and found that the Short Circuit Power at 132kV bus bar in Monaragala is around 750 MVA (see table). SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 31 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Table 5-1 Computed SCL values at Moneragala substation Using the heuristic rule that a SCR in the range of 3 would be acceptable to take over a large solar PV plant, it is immediate to estimate that the solar plants in the Monaragala region could reach some 750/3 = 250 MW. This is a number exceeds the original objective informally indicated as an objective (in the range around 100MW). It is possible to conclude then that a solar plant in the range of 100MW (and potentially more) in the Monaragala region could be assumed to be feasible from the point of view of grid stability. This estimate should be confirmed by conducting specific stability studies. 5.4. BRIEF COMMENT ABOUT THE SRI LANKA GRID CODE In March 2015, CEB has published a draft of a new Sri Lanka Grid Code. The latest revised version of this code is dated August 2016. The document is in line with other modern grid codes found elsewhere in the world. A complete review of the document will be done within the current assignment and presented as a separate document (task ii within Phase 1A, according to the ToR). In this section, we provide a summary of the grid access rules described in the latest version of the Grid Code document. Section 3.17 of the code deals with the so-called “Special connection requirements for intermittent resource based generating units”. The section would then apply to generation facilities based on both solar resources. The code requires this type of generation facilities to comply with the Power Factor ranges given in the figure below Figure 5-1 Power Factor Variation and Reactive Power Capability These requirements are in line with requirements found elsewhere and can be dealt with by modern inverters. The document indicates that it may be necessary for intermittent generators to limit the maximum rate at which the power output changes about changes in the intermittent resource. Therefore, power ramp-up rate shall be able to be limited. But the document does not seem to pose a comparable ramp down control requirements on generators. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 32 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Curtailment request are described as possible, but there are no specific numbers to assess the possible impact of this procedure. In summary, the current grid code does not seem to pose especially onerous burdens on future solar generators. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 33 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 6. PRODUCTION STUDY 6.1. SOLAR RESOURCE AND WIND ESTIMATE The southern part of Moneragala district appears to be among the areas in Sri Lanka with greater irradiation values (see figure below). Figure 6-1 Irradiation map of Sri Lanka The figure below show the monthly average ambient temperature at the proposed Moneragala sites derived from selected meteorological databases: Figure 6-2 Average monthly temperature for MN, SG and NASA databases Ambient temperature values obtained from the three databases considered show a small dispersion during the year. The difference between the databases varies with Solargis and Meteonorm aligned during May to September period while Solargis is nearer NASA estimations on October, February and March. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 34 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report The sites under consideration show an annual average temperature of approximately 27ºC. This is a relatively high temperature that will affect the performance of the PV plant. A note about Meteonorm lower GHI value could be useful here. Meteornorm uses ground stations as a basic data source, and the only ground measurements available at Sri Lanka is in Colombo some 179 km away. Thus satellite data are considered as more reliable (such as Solargis). Figure 6-3 Average monthly GHI for MN, SG, PVGIS and NASA databases The yearly Global Horizontal Irradiation is around 2000 kWh/m2/year. This can be considered like a good value. Figure 6-4 Average monthly DHI for MN, SG, PVGIS and NASA databases The Irradiation has a significant diffuse component, which would rule out the use of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology. Temperature values reach high values during the summer. This aspect combined with the high diffuse component of the radiation suggest that the use of non-crystalline modules, such Si thin film or CdTe panels should be explored as an alternative to the more traditional crystalline Si modules. Another feature of the radiation and temperature profiles is that both stay high along the year, SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 35 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Based on the analysis above, we opt to take Solargis as our reference data base for the production calculation. The data used in our production simulation is shown below. Figure 6-5 Meteorological data used in the Monaragala PVSyst simulation The yearly Global Horizontal Irradiation is around 1980 Wh/m /year. This can be considered like a good value. The Irradiation has a significant diffuse component (45%), which would rule out the use of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology. As it can be seen, temperature values reach high values during the summer. This aspect combined with the high diffuse component of the radiation suggest that the use of non-crystalline modules, such Si thin film or CdTe panels should be explored as an alternative to the more traditional crystalline Si modules. Another feature of the radiation profile is that the Global Irradiation is relatively high along the year, To complete the meteorological analysis we have looked into the wind regimes at the sites. The selected area seems to maximum winds of around 80 km/h. This value is compatible with the implementation of horizontal single-axis trackers. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 36 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Table 6-1 Sri Lanka’s Wind Hazard Map 6.2. PRODUCTION ESTIMATE To estimate the energy production that could be derived from this meteorological scenario, our team have run several plant models using the well-known PVsyst software (6.70 Version), The estimate has been done using 2.6 MW blocks, arranged in four different configurations.(fix tilt and tracker, with crystalline-Si and non-crystalline CdTe modules) as shown in the following table. The number of heq in a year is provided as a convenient indicator of the productivity of each configuration: Polycrystalline Concept Si module CdTe module Total Wdc 120,952,000 122,096,000 Total Wac 104,000,000 104,000,000 Fix Tilt Module 355,740 288,000 structure at 15C MWh/year 193,973 196,979 heq/year 1,604 1,628 PR 81.15% 82.41% Total Wdc 120,952,000 122,096,000 Total Wac 104,000,000 104,000,000 Single axis tracking Module 355,740 288,000 with 6m MWh/year 230,768 237,468 pitch heq/year 1,908 1,963 PR 79.43% 79.72% Table 6-2 Energy output of various solar configurations at Moneragala The complete PVSyst outputs corresponding to these four scenarios are provided as an attachment to the present document. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 37 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report The results indicate that there would be little gain by using non-crystalline panels. This is a somewhat unexpected result, given the relatively high average temperatures and high averaged diffuse component of the radiation. Perhaps, this could be due to an uneven distribution of the diffuse radiation. In other words, at Moneragala there could be some days with a very high component of diffuse radiation at which the non-crystalline module would produce relatively more than X-Si modules; but a significant share of the production would be coming from other days, with mostly clear skies where the crystalline modules would do very well. The result is otherwise a convenient from a practical standpoint, as crystalline modules are much more accessible in the market than amorphous modules. Another interesting, but less surprising result is that tracker projects offer a much better yield, close to 19% higher for each type of module. This improvement has to be weighted against the slightly higher cost of the tracker structures and, in the Moneragala case, the potential difficulties associated with the more demanding tracker foundations. If a cost-effective foundation for trackers can be devised, once a proper geotechnical survey is completed, we would recommend to go along with the tracker project. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 38 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 7. TENTATIVE LAYOUTS SOLAR FIELD AND INTERCONNECTION 7.1. TENTATIVE LAYOUTS FOR THE SOLAR FIELDS The area under consideration seems to have different zones where sizeable PV plants could be erected. At the same time, as described in sections above, the area involves patches of forest and rocky areas, and this makes difficult finding one single extensive plot that could host a huge plant (e.g. 100MW ~ 200 ha). Furthermore, to reduce the environmental and social impact, it could be better to alternatively implement a small collection of interconnected medium size plants (in the order of 30MW to 40MW). This would create a more palatable footprint, allowing, for example, the creation of corridors that would permit transit of wild species (e.g. elephants) and people. Using this strategy, Typsa has looked for plots that appear to be especially flat and clear of vegetation. The figure below depicts a tentative selection of plots that would host 30MW and 40MW PV plants. Yet, the final selection of sites should be made after specific topographic and geotechnical information is 3 gathered . Table 7-1 Possible location of 30&40 MW plants The indicated footprint for each of the plant corresponds to regular layouts, as show in the figure below. The actual design for a given plot might differ from this simple regular layout, as it might be necessary to adapt to the specific topographic, geotechnical and boundary characteristics of the plot. 3 The Forest Department indicated us during our visit that a digital topography of the area was available. However, we have not been able to acquire this information, despite repeated requests. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 39 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Table 7-2 Regular layouts for 30&40 MW plants These layouts show a surface occupation ratio of approximately 1,7 Ha/MWac. This ratio could be somehow optimistic as the above models are quite regular. However, even with a more irregular arrangement, a capacity of 100 MWac will not require more than a total extension of 200 Ha. For these layouts we have used a cost-efficient and state-of-the-art PV technology with polycrystalline modules of around 17% of efficiency together with horizontal single axis tracker. For the layout, we have applied large central inverter station of 5 MW although other solutions, as strings inverter, could be also valid. This would not substantially change the occupation ratio. The layout illustrated above shows one of the several ways in which the solar field can be conceived. For the sake of completeness, Typsa has studied how the yield would vary if non-crystalline modules (such as CdTe modules) were used and also what is the impact of using a one-axis tracker vs. the simpler fixed-tilt system, please refer to section 6.2. to reviews the corresponding results. 7.2. INTERCONNECTION CONCEPT The Monaragala substation provides an apparent readily available option to connect the Monaragala solar generation. As described above (see section 5.2. ), the Monaragala substation currently offers space for a new 132kV entry bay. Thus the apparent choice is to connect the new generation using this attractive option. Also, our proposed layout (see section 7.1. ), involves having not just one solar field but two or three interconnected fields. Our preliminary proposal would be to link the various fields by means of 33kV lines, and merge all these lines into a step up substation to be located in the plot closest to the Monaragala substation. This approach would require only one step up substation and possibly just one step up transformer. The following list of equipment would have to be included in the project, in case the solar field is split in three separate plots: • 2 switching centres at 33kV, one for each of the separate PV fields • 1 line/transformer bay with 1 power transformer and MV system, for each of the three separate PV fields • Upgrade of Moneragala substation with a new entry bay in 132kV SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 40 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report • 2 x 2kms (for example, actual length depends on relative location of the plants) underground cable at 33kV • One 132 kV overhead line, 20 km estimated approximate length, two conductors per phase, on lattice towers, zebra conductor and OPGW for fibre optics communications from PV plants to Moneragala substation These tentative interconnection infrastructures may be modified or adapted in a further design step due to specific technical requirements of CEB or additional interconnection needs. A simplified single line diagram could possibly clarify the proposed conceptual interconnection scheme: Figure 7-1 Simplified SLD showing connection of the first phase solar field SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 41 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 8. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 8.1. CAPEX This section provides an approximation to the CAPEX and LCOE for an hypothetical 100MW to be erected as three nearby 33.3 MW plants. The estimates have been derived using ratios observed in 4 similarly large international projects in which Typsa has been involved . The estimate does not capture possible specificities derived from the Sri Lanka supply financial conditions, except in what refers to interconnection infrastructure where indicative numbers provided by CEB have been used as a guidance. CAPEX estimate for 2x50MW plants interconnect to the Moneragala substation. Million USD 120 MWp/100 MWac PV capacity mounted on single-axis trackers $90.7 2 switching centres at 33kV $0.6 1 line/transformer bay with 1 power transformer and MV system $3.2 Upgrade of Moneragala substation with a new entry bay in 132kV $0.8 2 x 2kms underground cable at 33kV $0.9 1 132 kV overhead line, 20 km estimated length, two conductors per phase, on lattice towers, zebra conductor and OPGW for fibre optics communications from PV plants $4.0 to Moneragala substation TOTAL $100.2 Table 8-1 Overall estimated CAPEX 8.2. LCOE ESTIMATES To gather a first order of magnitude idea of the LCOE that could be derived from project at Moneragala, a simplified financial model has been constructed. In computing the LCOE, parameters such as the percentage of project financial leverage and the cost of borrowed capital might have a significant impact. For Typsa it would be premature to speculate about the values that these parameters could take for the Pooneryn project, as they would be dependent on the way the projects are structured and the roles that IFC and other lenders and investors could take in the project. Consequently, our financial calculation has assumed that the investment is all done upfront at the beginning of the project; and that there is no financial leverage. As a result, the only running expense is the OPEX cost, as there would be no principal or interest payments. The OPEX cost estimates have been obtained using ratios derived from previous Typsa experience elsewhere and are not based on probing the local market. With these considerations in mind, an LCOE in the range of $35.2 / MWh has been obtained. 4 For the PV estimates, we have used four recent projects in which Typsa has been involved and has got access to the corresponding CAPEX break down. In particular, (i) a 33 MW PV plant in Burkina Faso (2017) (ii) a 10 MW PV plant in Saudi Arabia (2018) (iii) a 18 MW PV plant in Mexico (2018) and (iv) a 80 MW PV plant in Argentina (2018). SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 42 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report The indicative figures provided are in line with some of the prices seen in the international arena for similarly large projects. These prices will have to checked international and national IPP as they approach the Sri Lankan market. A final note should be added. CEB has indicated (please refer to section 5.2. that the 132kV lines to Inginiyagala and Rantembe would have to be upgraded to support the energy export away from the Monaragala node. The cost of these reinforcements is unknown, and one could think that it should not be burdened on the solar projects, as it would represent a general improvement of the Sri Lanka’s electrical grid that could maybe be supported by alternative funding sources. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 43 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 9. SITE EVALUATION SUMMARY A site evaluation effort of the sort addressed in this report seeks several results: • A preliminary evaluation of the feasibility of the sites under consideration • Identification of potentially fatal flaws that jeopardise the project development • An indication of approaches and mitigation measures that could be implemented to facilitate the project development. • In case of multiples sites are being considered, a process whereby the sites can be ranked from most to less convenient And, such an evaluation process needs and will involve technical considerations as well as environmental and social considerations. When several competing sites are involved, an approach sometimes undertaken is to use a numerical evaluation method, i.e. a matrix of weighted aspects. Because the present edition of the document, just refers to the Pooneryn site, we will only use a qualitative approach in our evaluation. In a following, upcoming, edition of this document, the Monaragala sites will be included and the method used will be expanded to include the weighting procedure as it would facilitate comparison among the sites, communication and presentation of the results. Nevertheless, it might be already worth noticing that using the weighted evaluation matrix does not void out the valuable subjective opinion, it simply makes the site comparison easier. 9.1. MONARAGALA SITE EVALUATION MATRIX The Monaragala evaluation matrix is shown below. Each of the aspects considered is commented, and three step scale has been created to facilitate identification of potentially fatal flaws or critical elements. The proposed evaluation steps are D for Difficult, A for Acceptable and G for Good SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 44 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Aspect Comment D A G General site condition. This refers to some general features of the The proposed sites are within a forest area that combines A site, such as the existence of vegetation that would need to be high trees, high vegetation and rocky elevations along with removed, or buildings or any sort of construction, and the potential clear and flat areas. Some of these flat areas are used for existence of mandatory setbacks. This aspect include a consideration cultivation (Chena) and small orchard. of the available surface at the site. Land ownership. Is the land ownership clear? Does transfer of the The site belongs to the Forest Department. G property rights look feasible within reasonable cost and time? Topographic features. This refers to the topographic features of the The terrain is particular undulant at area 1 as there are A site. A flat site is ideal for a solar plant. A non-flat site might require abundant small rocky prominences. Area 2 shows a more grading works. regular terrain still with smaller prominences. All the area has some hills up to 400 meter high. No large clear and flat areas have been identified. A detail topographic map of the area should be studied to more precisely identify potential areas for further development. Hydrological aspects. Hydrological aspects of the sites, such the The area is located between two main rivers Kumbukkan A existence of water courses, water bodies, potential need for water Oya y Hoda Oya. The area is crossed with many water related works. courses, in general, small. The drainage system must be carefully studied to control the run-off after the heavy rains. Geotechnical aspects. This aspect tries to capture a fairly preliminar Due to the risk shallow rocks and calcareous shallow D evaluation of the site in relation to the potential ease or difficulty in layers, a more detail geotechnical survey and some using conventional foundation. ramming tests in those final selected areas should be performed. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 45 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Aspect Comment D A G Meteorological aspects of the site. The electricity production of the The studied area shows an annual average temperature of G sites is totally dependent, among other meteorological aspects, on approximately 27ºC and total annual irradiation of around the amount of irradiance received, the % of this irradiance being 2000 kWh/m2/y. Maximum average wind speed is around direct and the temperature. This aspect evaluates the quality of these 80 km/h. Meteorological conditions are good for production data and asses the potential productivity of the site. based on solar irradiation. Water supply issues. Is water available for maintenance No water supply although the area has different water A operations? courses. Shadow casting. This aspect evaluates whether production losses The area has spotted hills up to 400 meter high and areas A can be expected from existing of future objects. with high vegetation. Road access. Road access is an important aspect during The existing access to the investigated sites is poor. The D construction. This aspect evaluates the adequacy of this aspect. last few kilometres for both site 1 and site 2 (approx.. 4 km) are dirt roads that turn into muddy paths after during the rainy season. It would be necessary to improve some of the roads, including execution of some small bridges. An alternative access from the West should be studied in combination of the necessary route for the interconnection line. Existing utilities. If utilities infrastructure is present, this can affect It is an inhabited area with no infrastructures or services. G the design and the available surface. So, the design is not affected. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 46 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Aspect Comment D A G Interconnection infrastructure. This critical aspect tries to evaluate The planned point of interconnection is the Monaragala A the ease or difficulty of the export interconnection. It involves substation located at the main road between Buttala and evaluation of the potential Gen-Tie line and the receiving substation. Monaragala towns and around 18 km to the West from the It might involve also consideration of grid stability issues. proposed area. It is necessary to execute a brand new 132 kV line. The rout will cross forest and urban areas. No study of the potential route has been carried out yet. Environmental protection. Is the site affected by any sort of The site selected for the project is designated as a forest A protective figure, such national or regional park, or declared like a reserve. However, the area has been under heavy valuable international resource? cultivation for many years and therefore does not qualify as an forest reserve any further. The site lise in close proximity to Kumbukkana Conservation Forest and Ruhunaa and Kumana National Parks are also located south of the project site. These protected areas will not be directly or indirectly impacted by the proposed activities Environmental vegetation aspects. Does the site has unique or Outside of the forest areas most of the potential plots for A special vegetation that would be destroy and that can be not be easy usable for the project can be defined as lands abandoned compensated? Is the site populated with native vegetation, and would after cultivation that is covered with invasive alien grass its removal entail a significant loss?. species Panicum maximum. This habitat does not support any critical species and therefore loss of habitat is not a major concern. Wildlife aspects. Does the site host species either on a permanent Since the site selected for the proposed project does not A or transitory basis, that would be negatively affected by the support critical species it will not have a significant impact development of the project? Can mitigation or compensatory on wildlife. However, it is strongly recommended that measures be envisioned at this stage? relatively undisturbed riparian and rock outcrop associated vegetation should not be disturbed during project implementation as these small habitat patches are the only SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 47 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report Aspect Comment D A G remnants of the natural habitats that existed in the area and functions as the only remaining natural habitats for fauna and flora inhabiting the area. The area supports both Asian elephant herds and resident males throughout the year. It is likely that there is a high seasonal change in elephant presence related to cultivation. The adjoining area has a high level of human elephant conflict (HEC). Therefore, this area is also likely to have a high level of HEC. Given the extent of the project area (approximately 300 ha) it is unlikely to have a significant impact on elephant conservation or HEC. However, the development will mean that elephants lose approximately 300 ha of foraging area. A plan to mitigate impact on the elephant population should be devised. Social aspects. Are there any local dwellers on site? Are these Even though there are no permanent settlements if the A legally stablished? Have they ben there for long? Have the acquired a area identified for development the area is used extensively “de facto” right of us? Is it possible to imagine compensatory measure for seasonal cultivation under rain-fed irrigation. Therefore, in case of displacement, within reasonable cost and time margins? the implementation of the project will result in a loss of Could potential conflicts occur with local dwellers if a displacement livelihoods for these farmers. Once the plots are selected, a occurs or in relation to the construction works? plan should be developed to convert these impact into acceptable TOTAL 2 10 3 SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 48 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report 9.2. MONARAGALA EVALUATION SUMMARY A wide area to the south-east of the town of Monaragala has been studied as potential home to new utility-scale PV capacity. The study area is situated between the high mountains at the western end and the flatter terrain that covers the broad eastern and southern plain. It combines different geographic and geological features and can be considered hilly, and steep but also as a rolling terrain in some areas within an elevation range of 160 to 450 metres. The study indicates that the area at large and the available interconnection could probably support a total solar capacity around 100MW; maybe more. The topography, geotechnical and vegetation distribution features in the area does not make easy to find one single large suitable plot to would host one very large PV plant. Our team recommends that rather than considering one single site the objective PV capacity could be reached by setting up in two or three plants so that adequate quality plots can be found and the environmental and social footprints of the plant could be better managed. The sites so chosen would offer attractive solar resources for renewable energy generation. The sites would show as main environmental values, a varied vegetation landscape that includes grown-up trees, and a transient elephant population. From the social perspective, the area is sparsely occupied, with very small and isolated human settlements mostly devoted to the traditional Chena cultivation, which involves temporary occupation of lands. Typsa thinks that it is possible to find ways to develop adequately develop the Moneragala areas for renewable energy in economically attractive terms while reducing the environmental impacts to acceptable levels. To deal with the social, potential compensatory measure might be needed for potentially affected dwellers. To safely deal with the transient elephant population, we recommend setting up adequate wide free corridors and protecting the solar facilities with proper fencing. As seen in this report, the nearby Monaragala substation offers very a convenient evacuation option for a large PV plant. This substation is new and well maintained and has space readily available for a new 132kV entry bay. Under this approach, the various nearby PV plants would be interlinked using 33kV lines (some few km long), and the plant closest to Monaragala would then host a 33/132kV step-up substation, which would be connected with the Monaragala substation by means of a new aerial 132kV line (estimated to be around 20km long). The short circuit power estimated to be available at the Monaragala substation would indicate that the node can accept the proposed 100MW of non-dispatchable solar energy. However, this discussion, needs to be completed, in the future, with an in-depth analysis of the robustness of the grid at the point of interconnection. Also, it has been estimated that most of the energy that would be produced at the Moneragala sites, would have to be exported away from the node, as the local demand seems to be low. To achieve this, CEB has indicated that line reinforcements in the 132kV lines going to Inginiyagala and Rantembe will be needed (the cost of these reinforcements has not been considered in the analysis).. As a result, both interconnection and environmental criteria suggest that a sensible way to exploit the excellent energy resources in the Monaragla region would be to launch a large solar project by merging two or three solar medium scale solar plants.. As a summary, our team thinks that it is possible to develop a large utility-scale solar energy project in the Monaragala Region, this would improve the energy supply in the area, in an economically attractive way; and deploy the assets on the ground in a form that would be respectful to the existing environmental and social situation in region.. SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 49 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report REFERENCES 1 100% Electricity Generation Through Renewable Energy by 2050. Assessment of Sri Lanka’s Power Sector. ADB UNDP Report (2017). 2 Minimum Short-Circuit Ratios for Grid Interconnection of Wind Farms with Induction Generators, Romeu Reginatto and Carlos Rocha. The 8th Latin-American Congress on electricity generation and transmission – 2009 3 New implication of short circuit analysis in assessing impact of renewable energy resources on system strength of a power grid. A dissertation submitted to the graduate faculty in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy, Milad Javadi Norman, Oklahoma 2017 4 Power System Voltage Stability, Carson W. Taylor, EPRI, International Editions 1994 5 Power System Stability and Control, P. Kundur, EPRI, McGraw-Hill 1994 6 Integrating InverterBased Resources into Weak Power Systems, North America Electric Realiability Corporation, June 2017 SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 50 Technical Consultant for grid connected Solar PV project in Sri Lanka. Pre-feasibility report ANNEXES I: PVSYST OUTPUTS FOR MONARAGALA SOLAR FIELD SP2530-IN-01-Phase1A-Assessment-of-Sites-Monaragala Part Ed1.docx 51