37085 The World Bank Kabul Urban Policy Notes Series n.3 Informal settlement in Kabul Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? Kabul has grown at a rate of approximately 15% per year since 1999 and its projected growth is 5% (2% migrants and 3% natural growth), representing 150,000 new people per year (including 30,000 migrants). This burgeoning growth has raised debates on how to accommodate the city's expansion and also how to develop the existing city. In the short term, infill of the existing builtup area could accommodate 300,000 people and in the medium term, development on the east plateau could accommodate an additional 1 million people. In the long term, expansion on the plateau to the north of the mountains is the only feasible alternative for expansion, providing a water source is identified for the area. The city's topography reinforces the centrality of the business district and makes essential transitrelated investments such as traffic management measures, a good public transportation system, and a ring road. But equally important to development is the adoption of more innovative tools for planning, including a development plan, expedited land development, and zoning and building regulations based on existing patterns of development. 1 increasing number of migrants taking Kabul: new directions for growth residency in the city. Many cities internationally have attempted to stop Migration and the future development of migration with little success. Migratory Kabul movements are a global phenomenon fueled since the 1990s by the impacts of Kabul has been growing at a fast pace. This globalization of the world's economy, is a result of increasing migration from among other factors. Today, the total rural areas, the return of Afghan refugees number of international migrants is (since 2002) from surrounding countries, estimated at 175 million worldwide;1 they and migration of internally displaced generate annual remittances of about persons (IDPs). The city population grew US$200 billion.2 Their exogenous nature from 1.78 million in 1999 to 3 million in makes no government able to prevent 2004, reaching growth rates as high as 15% migratory flows. Many cities in Asia and a year in 2002, out of which 12% (322,600) was due to migration. Policy makers in 1 2000 figure. UN Department of Economic and Social Kabul are thus faced with the question of Affairs, 2004, World Economic and Social Survey 2004, how to address the challenges posed by the International Migration, New York. 2 World Bank, 2005. SASEI at The World Bank | 1 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? Latin America have tried and failed to slow Figure 1: Kabul Population Density migration by demolishing informal housing, withholding formal property rights, or depriving new informal settlements of basic infrastructure and services. More important, such practices significantly contribute to perpetuating slums, poverty, and social exclusion. Kabul is not an exception, and migration to the city will be an ongoing phenomenon. During the upcoming years, Kabul's population is expected to grow at a rate of 5%, representing about 150,000 new people per year, out of which 20% will be migrants. By these estimates, the city's Source: Ikonos satellite data, 2004. population will reach 5.13 million by 2015. While in the short run migration toward projected annual rate of growth, infill, cities causes growing pains for the eastern, and northern development municipalities, in the long run the wealth respectively comprise the best short, of a city is proportional to the number of medium, and longterm solutions to inhabitants, with larger cities producing a Kabul's development.4 larger share of the national wealth than smaller cities. Studies of migrant worker's a) Infill contributions to cities' GDP indicate that they play an important role in promoting In the short term Kabul retains the ability economic development. For instance, in to accommodate urban growth through Shanghai, the contribution of migrants to infill. Kabul's average population density the city's GDP reached 31.5% in 2004 is about 215 persons per hectare (p./Ha). (US$17.3 billion).3 This, in the long run, While this is a high density by world will also be true in Afghanistan. standards it is quite average for a large Asian city. This density is similar to The key question then becomes how to Bangalore or Hyderabad and lower than best accommodate current and projected Shanghai (286 p./Ha), Seoul (322 p./Ha), or growth of Kabul; the answer lies in its Hong Kong (367 p./Ha) (see Annex 1). In existing spatial and builtup environment. addition, Kabul population densities are higher in the periphery than in the city Kabul's city structure: directions for growth center; thus, Kabul is more dispersed than other cities in Asia with similar builtup Kabul has a builtup area of 140 kmē. The densities (see Figure 1, enlarged in Annex city has grown in two adjacent valleys 2). separated by a northsouth running mountain range. The mountain range In spite of the perceived high density of limits expansion of the city and divides it the city, the absorption capacity of existing into two parts. Considering the 5% neighborhoods, particularly in informal 3 "Workers should be free to move," China Daily, May 4 Preliminary calculations based on the interpretation of 13, 2004. data from the Ikonos satellite, 2004. SASEI at The World Bank | 2 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? neighborhoods, remains high. Density is make plots in remote locations attractive to higher in informal areas than in formal buyers. areas but there are many vacant plots in informal areas. The ones that are built This is also true for Kabul, where building typically have onefloor courtyard houses a new town would prove extremely costly. that would allow expansion by adding Huge investments in infrastructure would another floor. Thus, the existing builtup have to be made many years before the area could accommodate an additional first inhabitants settled, and a new primary 300,000 persons just by filling up existing network of roads would have to be built to vacant plots at current densities. link the town to Kabul. Likewise, public transport would have to be heavily b) Eastern development subsidized because of the spatial diseconomy caused by satellite towns, In the medium term, there is still a large which are never selfsufficient in terms of amount of underdeveloped land jobs and housing. It is hard to justify large immediately to the east of the city that can capital investments for new areas while accommodate an additional 1,000,000 80% of Kabul's already settled population people. has inadequate access to infrastructure. c) Northern development Access and accessibility In the long term, the only real possibility The topography of Kabul, particularly the to accommodate Kabul's growth is on a northsouth running mountain range, gives plateau to the north of the city, on the other unique accessibility to the existing central side of the mountain range. However, business district. As the center is the only given the large densification potential and area connecting the two valleys, and direct the ease of filling up the existing builtup communication between suburbs is area, an immediate expansion of the city difficult, topographic conditions reinforce into this area would be premature. The and will reinforce over time the northern area also lacks water. monocentric character of the city. Hence, some shortterm infrastructure d) New towns interventions will be necessary. To alleviate congestion in the city center, an The construction of a new town is strongly efficient public transport system and a unadvisable at this point in time. Starting sound system of traffic management are with a blank slate and building satellite needed. towns in new areas might be an attractive solution to avoid the entangled property Fortunately, the primary road network is rights issues prevalent in the existing city adequate as informal settlements have not (see Policy Note 4 of this series). However, encroached significantly on the right of because infrastructure must be developed ways of the roads linking different parts of long in advance of actual plot occupations the city. The right of way in most of the by the households, large land development primary network roads is at least 30 meters, projects outside existing urban areas sometimes exceeding 50 meters. The only require enormous capital and exception is the access road connecting the transportation investments that cause dense residential areas of District 13 on the negative cash flows for many years. In southwest side of the city. This road has an addition, large subsidies are required to SASEI at The World Bank | 3 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? average right of way of just about 8 meters · brief spatial articulation of such and would require further attention. objectives in a zoning map showing the land where the city expansion will In the long run, however, the city will need take place and the uses and standards to build a ring road to absorb increased that are expected in each area; traffic and to ensure that the northeast and · a set of land development regulations southwestern parts of the city are linked. reflecting (1) market demand, (2) housing design traditions and, (3) the 2 affordability of housing for various Tools for accommodating Kabul's growth socioeconomic groups; · a procedure for quickly providing Development plans vs. master plan building permits and land subdivision permits; Given its rapid current and projected rate · a program of progressive of growth, Kabul should consider neighborhood infrastructure replacing its master plan approach upgrading and definitions of the roles developed in 1978 with a more flexible of government, community, and development plan. Traditional master private contractors in implementing plans provide detailed designs of the city this program; that become rapidly obsolete because they · a primary infrastructure network do not take into consideration the city and construction program to support the the region's existing and projected opening of adjacent areas to conditions. By contrast, the starting point accommodate the projected expansion of a realistic development plan is a well of the city; grounded analysis of the city including the · a demographic and spatial framework analysis of its real assets and its liabilities. for the provision of social facilities; After that, development plans deal with · a resource mobilization program based shortcomings by coordinating proposed on user fees, impact fees, and, changes with the economic resources of eventually, property taxes. households, private firms, and the government. Development plans should Expedited land development process also implement monitoring of real estate prices, thus allowing planners to adjust the Informal settlements comprise 70% of all amount and type of housing that is being residential areas in Kabul and house built. This demanddriven approach better around 2.44 million. At its projected aligns housing supply and demand and growth rate, Kabul will face the challenge offers different socioeconomic groups of absorbing some 20,000 new households housing options that match their needs and every year. In this context, Kabul economic possibilities. Municipality should focus on preventing further informal development and possible Kabul's development plan encroachments on the road and street networks, and expedite a land Kabul's development plan should be a development process on empty lands next priority and should include the following: to builtup areas. In those empty areas, the government should delineate a basic grid · a definition of objectives for urban of primary and secondary roads that will development; form rights of way. Subsequently, the land should be opened up for settlement. After SASEI at The World Bank | 4 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? a sufficient number of plots has been Figure 2: Land Use Efficiency delineated and built, the relevant authority could plan to leveling and surfacing the roads and servicing the area, with some contribution from the residents. The process should occur as a simple land readjustment scheme. New standards for zoning and land use A zoning plan is a legal document that establishes the types of land uses allowed in different parts of the city. As specified in the section on Development Plans, land use standards defined in zoning laws Source: Own elaboration. should always be set after analyzing the population's income and the local real The detached house leaves only two small estate markets. Housing typologies reflect front and back yards for a ground floor cultural values and fulfill different area of 165 mē. By contrast, the courtyard demands for different socioeconomic design allows a large courtyard of 10 m x groups; land use standards specified in 14 m and a much larger built area of zoning plans for residential areas should 250 mē. An additional advantage of the respect this diversity. Unrealistic zoning courtyard house is that it can be minimum standards and arbitrary norms subdivided and is easily upgraded over imported from other countries force the time. population that cannot afford them to build illegally. The role of the government Kabul has three main housing typologies: The government should resist the (1) flats in fivestory walkup apartment temptation of acting as a land developer buildings, (2) detached houses, and (3) for several reasons: courtyard houses built around a walled compound. There is no optimal typology, a) Timeliness and quantity of land required but the courtyard house, selected by about to develop 80% of informal households, makes more efficient use of the land than others. Figure To supply around 20,000 plots per year to 2 (enlarged in Annex 3) illustrates this accommodate Kabul's growing population, point. It compares the use of land on two the government would have to acquire plots of identical size (390 mē): the first plot large amounts of land and design and contains a typical detached house on a plot build infrastructure to service it. More 15 m x 26 m commonly found in formal important, the government would need to subdivisions; the second plot is nearly allocate plots to households in a timely square (19.5 m x 20 m), typical of courtyard manner at a price corresponding to houses and found in informal demand. The government--either local or subdivisions. central--does not currently have the capacity or flexibility to rapidly accomplish any of these tasks. The political SASEI at The World Bank | 5 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? process could interfere in the awarding of demand for service delivery, and the need contracts, the recruitment of consultants, for traffic management. Fortunately, the and especially in the allocation and pricing way in which the city has developed of the plots. contains the seeds of the solutions to these problems. The development of informal b) Lack of cash resources settlements has prevented a housing crisis, although it has created infrastructure Land development requires having access delivery problems. These, however, are not to a steady stream of capital. The as insurmountable as once perceived. Due uncertainty of budget allocations will not to their densities and the protection of allow the government to finance land rights of way, most informal settlements development and/or would result in can accommodate upgrading of extended negative cash flows, thus infrastructure to a level of service similar draining budgets without apparent to formal settlements. Current densities benefits. and the presence of vacant land will allow infill in the short term (to accommodate c) Conflict of interest between the 300,000 people), while development of the government's role as regulator of markets eastern area is a mediumterm solution and and its role as developer could accommodate an additional 1 million people. When acting as a land developer the governments are often tempted to use their However, Kabul's burgeoning growth and regulatory power to prevent competition topography present some challenges. The from the private sector. The Delhi topography reinforces and will continue to Development Authority in India is a good reinforce the centrality of downtown example of a government acting as a Kabul. Crucial transitrelated interventions monopolist land developer. This resulted in the short run will include traffic in expensive and scarce housing, a management measures and a good public situation that ultimately hurt the poorest transportation system. The construction of part of the population. The experience of a ring road will be a necessary longerterm these last few years has shown that the intervention. Afghan government has insufficient human and financial resources to Traditional planning approaches such as simultaneously develop land, regulate its master plans have failed to cope with use, and guarantee property rights. The massive growth. Newer planning tools and everlonger waiting list for obtaining a plot systems are required, including of land shows that the government cannot development plans, flexible land possibly fulfill the role of developer and development systems, and new zoning regulator at the same time. regulations that reflect the cultural norms and values of Afghanistan. This is an 3 opportunity for Kabul's planners to create Conclusions innovative planning systems that can cope with situations of high and sustained Kabul's planners face remarkable urban growth. challenges arising from the city's rapid growth. These challenges include the development of informal settlements, the SASEI at The World Bank | 6 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? This policy note is based on the document prepared by the South Asia Energy and Infrastructure Unit at the World Bank, Kabul: Urban Land in Crisis, A Policy Note, September 2005, based on research conducted from September 2004 to January 2005. 4 Annexes Annex 1 Comparative average population densities in builtup sections of 51 metropolitan areas. SASEI at The World Bank | 7 Should Kabul grow by expanding to a new town or by building up its existing suburbs? Annex 2 Population densities in Kabul, based on IKONOS satellite data, 2004. Annex 3 Land use efficiencies of detached and courtyard houses. SASEI at The World Bank | 8