WORLDBANKGROUP GROPE Q GFDRR EI ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $15.3 billion* 5 Bosmia and Herzegoymna o0..u.sue *eg a g * a B osnia and Herzegovina'sThis map displays GDP by province in population and economy are Bosnia and'Herzegovina, with greater exposed to earthquakes and color saturation indicating greater floods, with floods posing the greater GDP within a province. The blue cir- risk. The model results for pres- ces indicate the risk of experiencing ent-day risk shown in this risk profile floods and the orange circles the risk are based on population and gross of earthquakes in terms of normal- domestic product (GDP) estimates ized annual average of affected GDP. CROATIA for 2015. The estimated damage The largest circles represent the caused by historical events is inflated greatest normalized risk. The risk is to 2015 US dollars. estimated using flood and earthquake risk models. Nearly 50 percent of Bosnia and Her- zegovina's population lives in urban The table displays the provinces at environments. The country's GDP greatest normalized risk for each was approximately US$15.3 billion in peril. In relative terms, as shown in C 2015, with about 90 percent derived the table, the province at greatest from services and industry and agri- risk of both floods and earthquakes is culture making a small contribution. Republika Srpska. In absolute terms, Bosnia and Herzegovina's per capita the province at greatest risk of floods GDP was $4,030. is also Repuplica Srpska, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes is Federacija Bosne I ercegovine. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES ADRIATIC SEA MIONCENLR iEARTHQUAKE aP Ave rage of Affected G Annaualu OP (billions of ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP ) AFFECTED GDP ( c r Theri hih correlation Repugplika Srpska Repuplika Srpska r no e (r=.95) between the Fedleradja Bosna i 2 Federacija Bosna i 0 us'ing erP EARTHe population and oua Hercegovina Hercegovina province. Brcko 1 Brcko 0 0 Negligible Bosnia and Herzegovina F|GFDRR WRBKO ISK AROFILEN T he most deadly and devas- If the 10- and 100-year bars are the tating flood in Bosnia and same height, then the impAct of a 10- Herzegovina since it gained its year event is as large as that of a 100- independence in 1992 occurred in year event, and the annual average of 2014. It affected 1 million people and affected GDP is dominated by events caused 25 fatalities and close to $450 that happen relatively frequently. million in damage. Flooding in 2010 If the impact ofa 100-year event is caused three deaths and close to $95 much greater than-that of a 10-year million in damage. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual avenge population affect- of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Bosnia and Her- (black). The horizontal line across the zegovina is about 100,000 and the bars also shows the annual average of annual avenge affected GDP about GDP affected by floods. $600 million. Within the various provinces, the 10- and 100-year im- When a flood has a 10-year return pacts do not differ much, so relatively period, it means the probability of occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year ADRIATIC SEA A DO[INL flood will occur exactly once every 10 and 100-year return periods 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not average Average of Affected GDP to happen at all over a long period of Annua[ avrae time. VFV VTh 10-year 100-yeart1-n 0yrrat Bosnia and Her zegovina WOLBAKROP 0 GFDRR RSKPROANLESETAA5AEA Bosnia and Herzegovina's worst year, or to appear in consecutive earthquake since 1900 took years, or not to happen at all over place in 1969 in Banja Luka, long period of time. CROATIA with a magnitude of 6. It caused 14 fatalities and over $300 million in If the 10- and 100-year bars are the damage. If the same earthquake were same height, then the impact of a 10- to occur today, it would cause an es- year event is as large as that of a 100- timated death toll over 400 and more year event and the annual average of than $4 billion in damage, based on affected GDP is dominated by events B o eposues.that presnt-dy happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event is ~ 4 Brcko~ This map depicts the impact of much greater than that of a 10-year earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event, then less frequent events make represented as percentages of their larger contributions to the annual av- annual average GDPs affected, with erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a greater color saturation indicating province's annual affected GDP seems higher percentages. The bar graphs small, less frequent and more intense represent GDP affected by earth- events can still have large impacts. quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect- The horizontal line across the bars ed by earthquakes in Bosnia and also shows the annual average of GDP fHerzegovina is about 40,000 and the affected by earthquakes. annual average affected GDP about $200 million. The annual averages of When an earthquake has a 10-year fatalities and capital losses caused return period, it means the probabil- by earthquakes are about five and ity of occurrence of an earthquake about $50 million, respectively. The of that magnitude or greater is 10 fatalities and capital losses caused percent per year. A 100-year earth- by more intense, less frequent events quake has a probability of occurrence can be substantially larger than the of 1 percent per year. This means annual averages. For example, an that over a long period of time, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual ADRIATIC SA MOIEN Affected GDP I(%) for- earthquake of that magnitude will, on probability of occurrence (a 250-year ad GOP (eu) 10 and 100-year return porid periods average, occur once every 100 years. return period event) could cause One bWoc k= 1% 3 It does not mean a 100-year earth- nearly $1 billion in capital loss (about quake will occur exactly once every 7 percent of GDP). 2 100 years. In fact, it is possible for A(%) an earthquake of any return period Annual average to occur more than once in the same 10-year 100-year V / C & ER "AN Bn H r goaWORLDBANKGROUP ENTRALA51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ,i ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES T he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential fofor greatest annual average capital losses and highest o oo annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Federacija Bosne I Hlercegovine, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. i§EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROAItITY CURVE, 2015 AND 208 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP 0~ Taffected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 14 25 varying probabilties of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts th4 affected 12 46 20 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 10 ;2the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2080 . 208 15 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 20 0Bosnia and H-erzegovina had experienced a .100-year-return 8 6 period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP Would have been an estimated $2 billion. In 2080, however, the affected 2015 20155 GDP from the same type of event would range from about 2 -$7 billion to about $10 billion. If Bosnia andi Herzegovina had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the 1) 2n5208, 250 o affected GDP would have been about $4 billion. the Return period (years) R affected GDP from the same tye of event would,range from 10 2.... about $10 billion to abouit $20 billion, due to population 10 2 1 04 to 214 Proba bi lity Probabilit growth, urbanization, and the increase in exp