LATIN AMERICA & 79526 CARIBBEAN REGION Environment & Water Resources OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The Environment and Water Resources Occasional Paper Series was developed under the direction of Karin Kemper, Sector Manager for Environment and Water Resources in the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LCSEN) of the World Bank. The publications in this Series were designed and produced by GRC Direct under the supervision of Emilia Battaglini and Rachel Pasternack (LCSEN). A list of the most recent papers is located at the end of this publication. For electronic copies of all our LAC Environment & Water Resources Occasional Papers please visit our website: www.worldbank.org/lac. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. All images courtesy of Thinkstock/Getty Images and The World Bank. Environment and Water Resources LCSEN Occasional Paper Series Foreword The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has Development Department in the World Bank’s Latin a unique mix of qualities and challenges when America and the Caribbean Region. The purpose of it comes to the environment. It is exceptionally the series is to contribute to the global knowledge endowed with natural assets, with globally exchange on innovation in environmental and significant biodiversity and valuable crops, and water resources management and the pursuit of also harbors the world’s greatest carbon sink in greener and more inclusive growth. The papers the Amazon. At the same time, however, the region seek to bring to a broader public – decision makers, registers the highest rates of urbanization in the development practitioners, academics and other developing world with pollution, overuse of its water partners - lessons learned from World Bank- and natural resources and detrimental impacts on financed projects, technical assistance and other the health of people, especially the poor, and the knowledge activities jointly undertaken with our environment. partners. The series addresses issues relevant to the Over the past twenty years, the LAC region has region’s environmental sustainability agenda from made impressive gains in tackling these issues. water resources management to environmental It leads the developing world in biodiversity health, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management conservation, environmental policy, pollution and is at the forefront in reducing urban pollution. management, environmental institutions and The World Bank has often been the partner of governance, ecosystem services, environmental choice for those countries in the region that have financing, irrigation and climate change and their had the initiative to pioneer innovative policies for linkages to development and growth. environmental protection and natural resource In this particular paper, we present to you the case management, strengthen institutions responsible of climate change adaptation in the water supply for environmental management, enhance and sanitation sector in Nicaragua, and a broader environmental sustainability, and introduce new analysis of the past trends and future projections approaches to water resources management. Such of climate impacts on water resources. The paper initiatives include fuel and air quality standards highlights the expected significant effect on the in Peru, carbon emission reduction in Mexico, water balance as an outcome of the expected payment for ecosystem services in Costa Rica, changes in temperatures, precipitation, and the participatory and integrated water resources hydrological variables, broadly consistent with management in Brazil, and new approaches to the historic trends in Nicaragua. Many options irrigation management in Mexico. to reduce the resulting climate vulnerability in The Environment & Water Resources Occasional domestic water supply and sanitation sector Paper Series, is a publication of the Environment and are “no regrets� measures, such as improving Water Resources Unit (LCSEN) of the Sustainable the efficiency of water distribution systems and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua institutional strengthening at the national and local We hope that this paper, just as the entire series, levels, while others might only be justified in the will make a contribution to knowledge sharing climate change scenario. Most of the conclusions within the LAC Region and globally. from this analysis in the case of Nicaragua are applicable to other Latin American & Caribbean Karin Kemper countries with similarly high levels of vulnerability Sector Manager, Environment & Water Resources to climate change and natural disasters. Sustainable Development Department Latin America and the Caribbean Region Table of Contents List of Acronyms, Abbreviations and Symbols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Water Resources Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Current Climate Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Past Efforts to Assess Climate-Related Impacts on Water Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Future Climate Scenarios and Potential Impacts on Water Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Climate Change Impacts on the Water Supply and Sanitation Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Annex A. Methodology Used in the Analysis to Assess Hydrological Impacts of Projected Climate Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 TABLES Table 1 Sub-Basins Covered by the Bottom-up Assessment..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Table A1 Global Climate Change Models Available in Climate Wizard for Scenario A2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Table A2 Direction of Change of Precipitation, Evapo-transpiration and Water Balance by Basin. . . . . . . . . 36 BOXES Box 1 Earlier Efforts to Estimate Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resource. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Box 2 Earlier Efforts to Estimate Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resource. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Box 3 The Hydrology of Nicaragua’s Watersheds and the Climate Adaptation Response. . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Box 4 People’s Perceptions of their Changing Environment and Climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 FIGURES Figure 1 Regional Contrast between Water Availability and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 2 Spatial Distribution of Average Annual Precipitation 1971-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 3 Decadal Averages of Observed Monthly Maximum Temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Figure 4 Decadal Averages of Observed Monthly Minimum Temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 5 Variation of Average Monthly Temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Figure 6 Trends in Precipitation Variability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 7 Projected Average Changes in Temperature for Nicaragua for the 2050s Relative to Baseline Period, A2 Scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 8 Projected Average Changes in Precipitation for Nicaragua for the 2050s Relative to Baseline Period, A2 Scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 9 Projected Average Changes in Temperature versus Precipitation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 10 Projected Monthly, Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Changes for Nicaragua . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 11 Projected Changes in Water Balance by 2050s (2040–2060) Relative to Baseline Period (1950–2000) by Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 12 Location of Sub-Basins Included in the Bottom-up Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure A1 Precipitation and Evapo-transpiration for the Baseline Period (1950–2000). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 iv Figure A2 Water Balance and Runoff for the Baseline Period (1950-2000). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Figure A3 Expected Changes in Precipitation in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios. . 31 Figure A4 Expected Changes in Evapo-transpiration in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Figure A5 Expected Changes in Water Balance in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Figure A6 Expected Changes in Runoff in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios. . . . . . . 34 Figure A7 Projected Changes in Precipitation, Evapo-transpiration and Water Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Figure A8 Direction of Change by Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 v Acronyms, Abbreviations and Symbols o C: Degree Celsius BCM: Billion cubic meters BNPP: Bank-Netherlands Partnership Program C$: Cordoba (local currency) CAP: Water and Sanitation Committee (for its acronym in Spanish – Comité de Agua y Saneamiento) CCAD: Comisión Centroamericana de Ambiente y Desarrollo ECLAC: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ENSO: El Nino Southern Oscillation ESMAP: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program GCM: Global Circulation Model GDP: Gross Domestic Product GHG: Greenhouse Gas GNI: Gross National Income INETER: Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (for its acronym in Spanish - Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales) INIDE: National Institute of Information for Development (for its acronym in Spanish – Instituto Nacional de Información para el Desarrollo) IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Km2: Kilometer square m3/capita/year: Cubic meters per capita per year MARENA: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (for its acronym in Spanish – Ministerio de Ambi- ente y Recursos Naturales) MW: Mega-watts NCCS: National Climate Change Strategy Nuevo FISE: New Emergency Social Investment Fund (for its acronym in Spanish – Nuevo Fondo de Inver- sión Social de Emergencia) RAAN: Northern Atlantic Autonomous Region (for its acronym in Spanish – Región Autónoma del Atlántico Norte) SICA: Central America Integration System (for its acronym in Spanish - Sistema de la Integración Cen- troamericana) TWINLATIN: Twinning Europe and Latin America River Basins for Research Enabling Sustainable Water Resources Management Project UNDP: United Nations Development Program – Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change vi Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Rita Cestti, Sr. Rural Development Specialist, World Bank Angelica Afanador, Consultant, World Bank Jorge Escurra, Consultant, World Bank Irina Klytchnikova, Senior Economist, World Bank, Stefano Pagiola, Senior Environmental Economist, World Bank Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable The authors wish to thank Roberto Araquistain Vice comments and suggestions received from Minister of Environment, Ministry of Environment Nagajara Rao Harshadeep, Senior Environmental and Natural Resources of Nicaragua, Suyen Pérez Specialist and Peer Reviewer, World Bank; Gregor General Director for Climate Change, Ministry of Wolf, Sector Leader for Central America, World Environment and Natural Resources of Nicaragua Bank (until September 2012); Ayat Soliman, Sector and participants of the June 2012 technical Leader for Central America, World Bank (since workshop from the Ministry of Environment and September 2012); Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez, Natural Resources, the National Water Authority Sector Director, Sustainable Development, World and the Emergency Social Investment Fund for Bank; Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, Country Director, helpful comments during the discussion of the Central America, World Bank; and Camille Anne study’s results. The authors would also like to Nuamah, Country Manager, Nicaragua, World acknowledge the editorial support provided by Bank. Comments were also provided by Mr. Janice Molina and the translation services from Bernardo Torres, Climate Change Specialist of the English into Spanish provided by Camila Sepúlveda Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources; Taulis. and Dr. Jose Antonio Milán Pérez, Climate Change The authors would like to thank the Bank- Advisor to the Nicaragua National Authority of Netherlands Partnership Program for its valuable Water at the time of completion of the publication. financial contribution. vii Executive Summary Climate change is at the top of the development the context of the Climate Change Diagnostic Study agenda in Central America. This region, together undertaken by the World Bank in 2011-2012 in with the Caribbean, is highly vulnerable to the ef- consultation with the Nicaraguan agencies, which fects of climate change in Latin America. Climate has entailed a review of climate change projections change is manifesting itself through higher average from a range of models with field assessment. temperatures and more frequent droughts that re- The “top-down� component of the Climate Change sult in higher water stress, and through the rising Diagnostic Study combines a review of projec- frequency of extreme weather events such as tropi- tions from 16 Global Circulation Models (GCM) for cal storms, hurricanes, floods and landslides, all of Nicaragua to select three possible future climate which pose significant challenges in the rural water scenarios for the 2050s.It then combines tempera- supply and sanitation sector. ture and precipitation projections for the three fu- The paper starts with a review of the historic data ture scenarios with the hydrological modeling tool on temperature and precipitation trends in Cen- AguAAndes and simulates the changes in water tral America and particularly at the regional level availability in different regions of Nicaragua, con- in Nicaragua. The data reveal a clear trend of the sidering the combined effect of temperature and growing climate variability, increased water stress precipitation changes for the 2040–2060 period for crops, and greater frequency of extreme weath- compared with the baseline (1950–2000). The re­ er events. The rising intensity and frequency of ex- sults of the simulations show that the net effect of treme weather events is among the most critical climate change on the water balance of fourteen risks to the region’s development agenda, and they out of the twenty-one basins in Nicaragua is likely translate into high economic losses. A review of the to be negative based on the projections of three earlier efforts to assess the impact of climate vari- future scenarios. According to the simulations of ability and the expected effects of climate change the combined climate and hydrological models, on water resources in Nicaragua, which have iden- droughts will likely worsen in the already dry areas tified vulnerable watersheds and shown significant and will tend to expand from the already dry central expected reductions in aquifer recharge, run-off region of Nicaragua to the Northwest. Furthermore, and water balance, follows. Then the document current flood-prone areas on Nicaragua’s Pacific lays out the findings of the analysis carried it out in and Atlantic coasts will likely be exposed to higher x Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua runoff than what they are experiencing today. This have some of the highest social costs, so the study means that rural water supplies will come under in- has taken a closer look at the adaptation meas- creasing pressure, especially in the areas that de- ures in this sector. Many of the options to reduce pend on surface water or on groundwater sources vulnerability to climate variability and strengthen with small recharge areas. the resilience of domestic water supplies are no different in a world with climate change than The study also includes a “bottom-up� component: they are in the baseline scenario without climate an assessment carried out through a rapid diag- change. They include measures to improve the ef- nostic field study of seven sub-basins that are rep- ficiency of water distribution systems, institutional resentative of different hydrological conditions in strengthening, and local-level capacity building. On Nicaragua. This assessment corroborates the vul- the other hand, other actions might only be justifi- nerability of water resources and infrastructure to able in the climate change scenario, such as retro- the changing climate. Although the projections of fitting the existing infrastructure to climate change climate models alone are not definitive enough to and altering the existing engineering designs and guide adaptation measures, when combined with operational models to better adapt to the effects the results of field observations they result in a set of climate change. The field work carried as part of of clear recommendations to facilitate adaptation this study has revealed a high level of awareness to existing climate variability and climate change of the changing climate and what it means for wa- in the water supply and sanitation sector in rural ter resources and domestic water supplies in rural Nicaragua: strengthening water management insti- Nicaragua. It has also helped identify some of the tutions at the national, municipal and community critical constraints to adaptation that projects and levels; enhancing hydro-meteorological monitor- national investment programs in the rural water ing and information systems, environmental and supply sector would need to address. climate change education and incentives to pro- mote the protection and sustainable use of water This paper was prepared as part of the broader sources; and improving the resilience of water and Climate Change Diagnostic Study financed by the sanitation infrastructure to climate variability and Trust Fund for Bank-Netherlands Partnership Pro- change through traditional and innovative techno- gram (BNPP). The study has informed the prepara- logical solutions. tion of the FY2012 Republic of Nicaragua Adapta- tion of Water Supplies to Climate Change Project, They key conclusion of the study is the expected financed by a US$6 million grant from the Special significant effect on the water balance as an out- Climate Change Fund and implemented by the Min- come of the projected changes in temperatures, istry of Environment and Natural Resources, the precipitation, and the hydrological variables, Emergency Social Investment Fund responsible for broadly consistent with the historic trends. Among rural water supply projects in Nicaragua, and sup- the sectors that will bear the brunt of the effects ported by the National Water Authority. The findings of climate change are agriculture, hydropower and of the diagnostic study, summarized in this paper, domestic water supply. In the latter sector, partic- have been discussed in Nicaragua during a techni- ularly in rural areas, climate impacts are likely to cal workshop held in Managua in June 2012. xi Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Introduction for Nicaragua’s government to improve the resil- ience of water supply and sanitation sector in the This paper examines the impacts and implications face of increased climate variability and climate of potential climate change on water resources change. in Nicaragua and makes key recommendations to integrate climate change and rural water sup- ply and sanitation policies and programs in a way Water Resources Situation Although the Central American region is well-en- that increase resilience to current and future cli- dowed with water resources, the region including mate conditions. The paper begins by looking at Nicaragua faces spatial and seasonal imbalanc- the current water resources situation in Nicaragua. es of its resource base. Regional water availabil- It then presents the changes in temperature and ity is estimated to be about 23,000 cubic meters precipitation that have been observed as a result per capita per year (m3/capita/year) (ECLAC 2010). of current climate variability. This is followed by a Seasonal imbalances of water availability are com- review of the projected temperature and precipita- mon in the Pacific side of the Central American tion changes from 16 Global Circulation Models region, which experiences at least five months a (GCM) for Nicaragua, and the results from compre- year (from December through April) almost no rain hensive simulations at the country level of three fu- (ECLAC 2010). In the case of Nicaragua, if both sur- ture climate change scenarios on key hydrological face and groundwater resources are considered, variables, both elements of the top-down assess- the country has about 16,700 m3/capita/year1 ment. The paper then presents the results from the (Vammen and Hurtado 2011). However, as shown bottom-up assessment of the impacts of climate in Figure 1, this high figure masks an uneven spa- change on the water supply and sanitation sector, tial distribution of the resources among the Pacific, and outlines priority actions and recommendations Central and Atlantic regions. While about 87 percent 1 This is calculated on the basis of assuming the total population of 5.8 million inhabitants in Nicaragua in 2010. 1 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Figure 1: Regional Contrast between Water Availability and Population Source: Elaborated by authors using Vammen and Hurtado (2011). of the population is concentrated in the Pacific and Demand for water resources in the most densely Central regions of the country, about three-quarters populated region of the country outstrips available of the water resources are located in the Atlantic re- supplies during dry years. gion Seasonal imbalance of precipitation is also ob- served in the Pacific region of Nicaragua (Figure 2). Water resources make a significant contribution to regional and national socio-economic develop- There is a marked difference within the Central ment. For Nicaragua, water is not only an impor- American region in terms of water withdrawals tant environmental asset, but also a key input to and sectoral allocations. In the case of Nicaragua, agriculture, industry and hydropower generation. total water withdrawals are estimated to amount Agriculture represents approximately 20 percent of to 1.8 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year or 310 gross domestic product (GDP) and employs more m3/capita/year, of which agriculture accounts for than 30 percent of active population (Vammen 83 percent, domestic use for 3 percent and indus- and Hurtado 2011). It is estimated that on average try for 14 percent (Vammen and Hurtado 2011). only 27 percent of permanent cropped area (about 2 61,000 ha) is irrigated. During drought years, the and other sources (7 percent). The electricity de- water deficit for crop production is high causing mand is expected to grow at 6 percent per year, significant economic losses in terms of reduced and hydropower is expected to play a key role in the agriculture production. Changes in climate will in- future electricity generation (ESMAP 2006). crease the importance of irrigation in the future. Total technically and economically feasible hydro- Nicaragua has some of the largest aquifers of power potential of Nicaragua is estimated at 751 Central America, which provide a source of drink- mega-watts (MW). At present, only 104 MW have ing water for approximately half of the country’s been developed, and about 16 percent of electric- population. The main source of domestic water ity is from hydropower, with the remainder made up supply is groundwater, representing 70 percent of of thermal (67 percent), geothermal (10 percent) the total, with the remainder coming from surface Figure 2: Spatial Distribution of Average Annual Precipitation 1971-2000 Source: Elaborated by authors with information from the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER for its acronym in Spanish - Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales) collected by the Twinning European and Latin American River Basins for Research Enabling Sustainable Water Resources Management Project (TWINLATIN) Project. 3 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua water and springs (Vammen and Hurtado 2011). Current Climate Variability Due to seasonal imbalances in water availability Climate in Central America is becoming warmer and demand, some rivers dry up during the dry and rainfall during extreme events is increasing. season, often leaving rural areas without a reliable Over a period of 40 years (1961–2003), the region source of water supply for half the year. Pollution has experienced increases in maximum and mini- also limits water availability in urban and rural ar- mum temperatures of 0.2 degree Celsius (°C) and eas and increases the costs of potable water sup- 0.3 °C per decade, respectively, along with an in- ply. Many aquifers are currently affected by salinity crease in the number of dry days (ECLAC 2010). or pollution from agrochemical runoff, untreated These changes have increased water stress and re- wastewater, and natural contamination by arsenic sulted in crop losses, as observed during droughts (World Bank 2009). in the Pacific region of Nicaragua and Honduras. Figure 3: Decadal Averages of Observed Monthly Maximum Temperature Source: Elaborated by authors with data from meteorological stations collected under the TWINLATIN and the annual statistics report from National Institute of Information for Development (INIDE for its acronym in Spanish – Instituto Nacional de Información de Desarrollo). 4 Similarly, extreme rainfall events have also become minimum and maximum temperature for most of more frequent, resulting in higher risks of soil erosion, the stations. Increments of temperature of 0.2 °C floods and landslides. Climate change poses a signifi- and 1.6 °C between extreme decades have been cant threat to the availability of freshwater resources observed (Milan 2010). Figures 3 and 4 present (Vörösmarty et al. 2000 and Kundzewicz et al. 2008). decadal averages of the observed monthly maxi- mum and minimum temperature for five stations. Warming trends in maximum and minimum aver- They show that warming trends occur during almost age monthly temperatures are observed in Nica- all months and for all stations, with the exception ragua. Analysis of temperature records over the of the Rivas station, which shows a cooling trend. period of 1958/1970-2010 for the 10 principal On average, the temperature in Nicaragua has meteorological stations (some stations have reg- increased by 0.9 °C since 1960. According to isters from 1958 while others have registers from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 1970) indicates warming trends in mean monthly Climate Change Country Profile, which compiles a Figure 4: Decadal Averages of Observed Monthly Minimum Temperature Source: Elaborated by authors with data from meteorological stations analyzed under TWINLATIN and INIDE annual statistics reports. 5 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua range of data sources, the average temperature tions towards the south show that those areas are for the whole county has increased by 0.9 °C in not experiencing changes or are becoming cooler. all seasons since 1960, and the frequency of hot days and nights has also increased significantly Annual and seasonal precipitation in Nicaragua since 1960: the number of hot days has increased is also changing. According to an analysis of pre- by 16.4 percent (an additional 60 hot days) and the cipitation records conducted by INETER for two sta- number of hot nights by 11.7 percent (an additional tions for which data are available since 1895, dur- 43 hot nights) (McSweeney et al. 2010). As shown ing the last 30 years mean annual and seasonal in Figure 5, average monthly temperatures do not precipitation has declined. The overall trend is a follow a consistent trend throughout the country. decrease of 6-10 percent of precipitation over the No all of the six stations analyzed have experi- analyzed period (Milan 2010). Similar decrease enced the same trend. Stations in the northwest in precipitation is also noted in the UNDP Climate and center of the country show that those regions Change Country Profile, which also highlights an in- are experiencing warming in all months, while sta- creased intensity in rainfall (McSweeney et al. 2010). Figure 5: Variation of Average Monthly Temperature Source: Elaborated by authors with data from meteorological stations analyzed under TWINLATIN and INIDE annual statistics reports. 6 A 2.2 percent increase per decade on average in the The precipitation in Nicaragua presents great proportion of precipitation that occurs in “heavy� variability in time and season, which is associat- rainfall events since 1960 has been reported. ed with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Ac- cording to INETER and the Ministry of Environment This assessment does not find evidence of a sig- and Natural Resources (MARENA for its acronym in nificant declining trend in overall annual average. Spanish – Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos Na- turales), there is a strong correlation between the However, trends toward increased variability in the ENSO events, namely El Niño events, and the low- late part of the rainy season are observed. Figure ering of precipitation in the Northern and Central 6, which summarizes the results of the analysis of Pacific regions. Large negative anomalies in total recorded monthly precipitation from three stations, annual precipitation are observed during El Nino shows that during the second analyzed period month- years. During the period 1971-1998, the dry years ly average precipitation and variability have changed of 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1990-95 considerably in relation to the first analyzed period. and 1997-98 correspond to the years when El Nino A high variability is observed during the month of Oc- conditions were also present (MARENA 2003). Vari- tober associated with the end of the rainy season. ous studies have shown that the ENSO events have Figure 6: Trends in Precipitation Variability Variability First Period Variability Second Period Average Precipitation (1961-1990/1963-1990) (1989-2008/1983-2004) 700 700 300 600 600 1961-1990 Precipitation (in mm) Precipitation (in mm) 250 Precipitation (in mm) 500 500 1989-2008 200 400 400 (a) 300 200 300 150 100 200 100 100 50 0 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 900 900 300 800 800 1961-1990 Precipitation (in mm) Precipitation (in mm) 250 Precipitation (in mm) 700 700 1989-2008 600 600 200 500 500 150 (b) 400 300 400 300 100 200 200 50 100 100 0 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 700 700 250 1963-1990 600 600 Precipitation (in mm) Precipitation (in mm) 200 1983-2004 Precipitation (in mm) 500 500 150 400 400 (c) 300 300 100 200 200 50 100 100 0 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Charts in the top row (a) summarize observed precipitation records from Juigalpa station; in the middle row (b) those from the International Airport Sandino station; and in the bottom row (c) those from Panaloya station. Source: Elaborated by authors with data from TWINLATIN and INIDE annual statistics reports. 7 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Box 1. Earlier Efforts to Estimate Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources National-level Study. Within the framework of the First National Communication, MARENA carried out a study to assess the likely impacts of climate change in the energy, forest, agriculture, fishing and acuaqulture, water resourcre and public health sectors. With regard to the impacts of climate change in water resources, the study compared the supply of water and the demand from the various users for three time horizons: 2030, 2050 and 2100. The analysis considered variations in tem- perature and precipitation of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model 2 (HadCM2) for three emission scenarios – an optimistic, a pessimistic and a most likely scenario for each of the time horizons considered. For the assessment of future supply of surface water, the analysis made use of the Climate-Runoff Model (CLIRUM), to simu- late the behavior of the runoff for future climate conditions in four representative basins in Nicaragua: Basins of the Guanas, Tamarindo, Viejo and Paiwas rivers. The results of this analysis were then extrapolated to the rest of the country based on ecological classification, and reported at the level of the three hydrological regions – Pacific, Central and Atlantic. For the assessment of future groundwater, the analysis made use of the numerical model Visual Modflow, which was applied to the sub-basin of the Chinandega-Leon aquifer. The most relevant findings of the study were the following: • At the level of the basins, the study found that the basins of the Tamarindo, Viejo and Guanas rivers are highly vulner- able under all the three scenarios and the 2050 and 2100 time horizons. In the case of the basin of the Paiwas River, it was found that it is vulnerable under the pessimistic and moderate scenarios for the 2100 time horizon, in particular the upstream portion of the basin. • At the level of the hydrographic regions, the study found that the Pacific region is the most vulnerable to climate change given the notable reduction in run-off, the high concentration of population and large surface area under irrigation. The Central region – particularly the agriculture and hydropower sector– is expected to be impacted by reduction in run-off. In the Atlantic region, the study found that the impacts will be felt in terms of more frequent floods. • With respect to the aquifer Chinandega-Leon, the study found that from 2050 onwards, the natural recharge of the aqui- fer would be surpassed by the extraction volume for the three scenarios of climate change considered. The study also evaluated the vulnerability of water resources to climate change using an index of water scarcity, which was defined as the ratio between the demand and the supply. To determine the supply, the study assumed that water pollution would affect the quantity of available water in the following proportions: 30 percent in the Pacific region, 20 percent in the Central region and 10 percent in the Atlantic region. The study found that the Pacific region is subject to high vulnerability, followed by the Central region with moderate vulnerability and the Atlantic region with low vulnerability. The analysis done to evaluate the impacts of climate change on energy, namely hydropower, consisted in evaluating the impacts of climate change on average annual run-off at the location of El Carmen hydropower plant in the Rio Grande de Matagalpa. The analysis considered the same climate change scenarios and five time horizons: 2010, 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study found that by year 2050, it is expected that the run-off will be reduced by 30-36 percent, and by the end of the century, the run-off might experience a reduction ranging between 37- 57 percent. Basin No. 64 Study. Within the framework of the Second National Communication, MARENA conducted a vulnerability assessment of water resources in the Basin No. 64 between Volcan Cosiguina and Tamarindo River to current climate variability. The study made use of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System model and the Visual Modflow model to simulate river flows and aquifer levels for normal years as well as El Niño and La Ninã years. The analysis was done for 2015 and considered two future socio-economic scenarios: one where the area under irrigation for peanuts and sugar cane increases and population grows at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent; and the second scenario similar to the previous one but where efficient irrigation systems and conservation measures are introduced. In this basin, groundwater is the main water source for domestic, agriculture, industry and municipal water needs. The study found that under the first socio-economic scenario and dry climate conditions, there will be areas in the basin under severe water deficit, pumping cost will increase as a result of the lowering of the water table, and artisanal wells will dry up. According to the study, the situation is more manageable under the second socio-economic scenario – where the demand of all water users could be met through 2015. Sources: MARENA 2001, MARENA 2008a and MARENA 2008b. 8 had significant changes during the last decades in assessment on water resources based on an analy- terms of frequency and intensity. sis done at the level of four basins. Another impact assessment of current climate variability on water The increasing intensity of extreme weather resources was carried out in the context of the for- events is among the most critical climate risks in mulation of the Second National Communication the region. Between 1930 and 2009, Central Amer- to the UNFCC. This second study was done at the ica experienced 259 major extreme weather-related level of Basin No. 64 (See Box 1 for a summary of events, of which 85 percent accounted for floods, the methodology adopted and the key findings of storms, landslides and mudslides, and 10 percent the national level study and the basin-level study). accounted for droughts (ECLAC 2011b). In the past The lack of baseline information and appropriate three decades, the number of disasters has been hydrological models have been major constraints to conducting impact assessments based on most growing at an estimated annual rate of 5 percent recent climate change data and research. compared to the levels recorded during the 1970s. Nicaragua and Honduras seem to be the coun- Future Climate Scenarios and Potential Im- tries in the Central America region most affected pacts on Water Resources by the impacts of weather-related events. Accord- The top-down assessment of this study aims at ing to the Global Climate Risk Index for the period identifying potential impacts of climate change 1991-2010, evaluated by Germanwatch based on on the water resources at the level of the ba- the damages and human losses caused by floods, sins in Nicaragua making use of latest climate hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, and heat waves, change data and available hydrological modeling Honduras and Nicaragua rank in the third and tools. The assessment includes: (i) a review of the fourth place at the global level, respectively, and projected temperature and precipitation changes in the first and second position among the Central from several GCMs for Nicaragua; and (ii) compre- American countries (Harmeling, 2011). hensive hydrological simulations for three possible future climate change scenarios. Past Efforts to Assess Climate-Related Im- Projected temperature and precipitation chang- pacts on Water Resources es from 16 GCMs, each under a medium-high At present, only a couple of studies have been greenhouse gas emission scenario (A2)2, be- conducted to assess the impacts of climate vari- tween the baseline and the middle of the twenty- ability and change on water resource in Nicara- first century (2050s) were reviewed. All data were gua. In the context of formulating its First National obtained from a web-based tool called Climate Wiz- Communication to the United Nations Framework ard.3 The baseline corresponds to the 1961–1990 Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), Nicaragua time period, while the 2050s are represented by carried out a national-level climate change impact the 2040–2069 time period. 2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (from the 4th Assessment Report) are grouped into four scenario families that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, without including additional climate policies beyond the current ones. A1 assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technolo- gies; B1 describes a convergent world with the same global population as A1, but with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy; B2 describes a world with intermediate population and economic growth, emphasizing local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability; and A2 describes a highly heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change. 3 The Climate Wizard tool is available at http://www.climatewizard.org. 9 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua The GCMs agree on an increase in temperature of Nicaragua’s basins. Although the three likely and show unclear trends in precipitation. Project- future scenarios considered (warm-dry, moder- ed annual changes in precipitation and tempera- ate and cool-wet) differ in terms of the magnitude ture for the 16 GCMs are shown in Figures 7 and of the projected changes in temperature and the 8, respectively. Although mean annual temperature magnitude and direction of the projected changes changes are projected to be positive, ranging be- in precipitation, the net effect of climate change on tween 1.2 ºC and 2.6 ºC (with a weighted average the water balance, which is measured as the differ- and median of 1.8 ºC), projected mean annual ence between precipitation and actual evapo-tran- precipitation changes show broad variation in spiration, for 14 out of the 21 basins analyzed is magnitude and an unclear direction, ranging from negative in each future scenario. As seen in Figure -21 percent to +6 percent (with a weighted average 11, basins draining to the Pacific will experience and median of -7.0 and -5.0 percent, respectively) the highest reduction: Brito River–Sapoa River, (see Figure 9). Similar variation in precipitation Tamarindo River–Brito River, Cosiguina Volcano– changes is observed when the analysis is conduct- Rio Tamarindo River, Brito River and Estero Real ed on a seasonal and monthly basis. However, it is River. Under these conditions, water-dependent interesting to note that 75 percent of the models sectors are under peril because temperature in- show negative trends for annual precipitation, with creases could trigger an increase in water demand, precipitation falling in the months of March, May, while water availability will be subject to the un- June and July4 (see Figure 10). certainty of future precipitation trends. Domestic water supply, hydropower, agriculture, health and Given the limitation of baseline information, sim- biodiversity are among the sectors most sensitive ulations of changes in key hydrological variables, to these projections. namely, evapo-transpiration, water balance and runoff, were run for three possible future sce- Climate variability might become more extreme narios—warm-dry, moderate, and cool-wet—using in the future. Although climate change is expect- a web-based hydrological modeling tool called ed to have an insignificant effect on the extent AguAAndes.5 For the country as a whole, the UK- and/or frequency of the ENSO events during the MO-HADCM3.1 model was chosen to represent the next century (Stevenson et al 2011), the warmer warm-dry future scenario, the NCAR-PCM1.1 model and moister atmosphere expected in the future to represent the cool-wet future scenario, and the would make these events more extreme because ensemble average of the 16 GCMs to represent the their impacts could worsen unless measures are moderate future scenario. The overall approach taken to reduce vulnerabilities. Thus, apart from used to assess the hydrological impacts of project- any change in mean climate expected in the next ed climate change is described in Annex A. century, it should be taken into account that the climate variability might become more extreme in Climate change impact assessment indicates the future and the drying patterns observed in Ni- that water availability, as reflected by the pro- caragua during El Niño years could be the norm in jected water balance, will likely decrease in most the future (Karmalkar et.al 2011). 4 The climate models’ ensemble’s inter-quartile ranges of precipitation change projections for these months as well as the average year are uniformly negative. 5 The AguAAndes tool is available at http://www.policysupport.org/aguaandes. 10 Figure 7: Projected Average Changes in Temperature for Nicaragua for the 2050s Relative to Baseline Period, A2 Scenario Source: Prepared by the authors with data from Climate Wizard. Droughts would likely worsen in the already dry impact areas, particularly those in the Pacific and areas. The three future scenarios analyzed earlier Central regions, which are highly dependent on are in agreement that by 2050 the water balance groundwater for household and agricultural activi- will be reduced in many areas of the country, par- ties. A reduction in surface water will cause a re- ticularly in the Dry Corridor6 zone. This already dry duction in groundwater levels and the amount of region will face an increasing risk of drier soils and water available for agriculture, potable water sup- less surface water; droughts will likely worsen and ply and other uses. Groundwater-dependent com- expand to the Northwest. Climate change will also munities will need to adapt by constructing deeper 6 The Dry Corridor zone (Corredor Seco) is characterized by reduced water availability and has been affected by a number of droughts: the most severe droughts occurred in 1983, 1987, 1992 and 1994; moderate droughts in 1986, 1989 and 1997; and less severe droughts in 1991 (MARENA/UNDP 2003). 11 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Figure 8: Projected Average Changes in Precipitation for Nicaragua for the 2050s Relative to Baseline Period, A2 Scenario Source: Prepared by the authors with data from Climate Wizard. wells to reach water tables, and this would increase all Central American countries, with 14 major the costs of water supply. events of this kind. Although there is no clear evi- dence of an increasing frequency of cyclones and Current flood-prone areas on Nicaragua’s Pacific tropical storms that can be attributed to climate and Atlantic coasts will likely be exposed to high- change, there is evidence of their greater intensity er runoff than what they are experiencing today. (IPCC 2007). Higher intensity of extreme drought Over the last four decades, Nicaragua’s northeast and rainfall events translates into severe floods has experienced major climate events such as that pose higher risks to riverbanks, low-lying ar- hurricanes, tropical storms and associated floods. eas, and coastal zones. Floods tend to occur in the From 1990 to 2008, Nicaragua had the highest in- Caribbean and Atlantic coastal regions, the south- cidence of tropical storms and hurricanes among west portion of the Northern Atlantic Autonomous 12 Figure 9: Projected Average Changes in Temperature versus Precipitation 30% ALL GCMs mri-cgm21 cccma_cgcm3_1.1 20% cnrm_cm3.1 csiro_mk3_0.1 10% gfdl_cm2_0.1 gfdl_cm2_1.1 ∆ P (%) 0% giss_model_e_r.1 inmcm3_0.1 ipsl_cm4.1 -10% miroc3_2_medres.1 miub_echo_g.1 -20% mpi_echam5.1 ncar_ccsm3_0.1 -30% ncar_pcm1.1 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 ukmo_hadcm3.1 ∆ T (° C) bccr_bcm2_0.1 Note: The vertical axis shows the change in average precipitation projected by each of the GCMs included in the analysis and the horizontal axis – the change in temperature. Source: Prepared by the authors with data from Climate Wizard. Region (RAAN for its acronym in Spanish - Región where the social costs of the impacts of climate Autónoma del Atlántico Norte), and Chinandega change are likely to be particularly high. The department. Most of the 16 GCMs under the A2 impacts are occurring through the changing avail- emission scenario project higher precipitation in ability, distribution of water availability over time, Nicaragua’s flood-prone areas; therefore, flooding and water quality. The precipitation regime in the events will likely expand further to the south in Ni- Central America region, in Nicaragua in particular, caragua. The risk of landslides will likely increase in is characterized by the alternating periods of floods already vulnerable areas such as the departments and severe drought, which will be exacerbated by of Jinotega, Matagalpa and Chinandega, and the climate change. Furthermore, sea level rise threat- Pacific coast, where deforestation levels are high. ens the water quality of aquifers in the coastal zones due to saline intrusion. In addition, climate Many sectors will be affected by climate change, change is likely to degrade drinking water quality notably agriculture and hydropower, and domes- (Delpla et al. 2009). Quality and regularity of flow tic water supply which stands out as a sector are critical characteristics for drinking water. Regu- 13 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Figure 10. Projected Monthly, Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Changes for Nicaragua 300 200 100 0 Change in mm -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 J F M A M J J A S O N D Annual D-F M-M J-A S-N Note: The charts summarize the distribution of projected changes. The horizontal line inside the box represents the median projection, the box the inter-quartile range, and the whiskers extend to the minimum and maximum values. Source: Prepared by the authors with data from Climate Wizard. Figure 11. Projected Changes in Water Balance by 2050s (2040–2060) Relative to Baseline Period (1950–2000) by Basin Source: Prepared by the authors. 14 larity of flow is expected to be substantially affected could fall between 36 and 64 percent compared by climate change, with increases in inter-annual to current levels. Water scarcity or surplus (floods) variability and a higher frequency of intense rainfall could result in social instability due to water con- events in many areas (IPCC 2007). Assessments of flicts and higher vulnerability of rural communities, impacts on quality have mostly been limited to de- infrastructure and key water-dependent economic veloped countries, but are expected to be broadly sectors. As Döll (2002) points out, climate change negative: “an increase in water temperature alters that reduces rainfall will also increase the demand the rate of operation of some key chemical pro- for irrigation water. Emelko et al. (2011) find that cesses in water. Also, changes in intense precipita- the effects of climate change are likely to affect wa- tion events impact the rate at which materials are ter treatment costs by exacerbating the impact of flushed to rivers and groundwater, and changes in wildfires and other disturbances. Waterborne dis- flow volumes affect dilution of loads. Key conse- eases, reduced agricultural competitiveness, food quences of declining water quality due to climate insecurity, and compromised hydropower genera- change include increasing water withdrawals from tion are among the gravest consequences for Nica- low-quality sources; greater pollutant loads from ragua and the Central American region as a whole. diffuse sources due to heavy precipitation (via higher runoff and infiltration); water infrastructure Poverty and environmental degradation exac- malfunctioning during floods; and overloading the erbate Nicaragua’s vulnerability to the impacts capacity of water and wastewater treatment plants of climate change. Nicaragua is one of the poor- during extreme rainfall� (IPCC 2007). Flow changes est countries in the Latin America region with per and reduction in water tables would certainly af- capita Gross National Income (GNI) of only $1,510 fect the functionality of current water infrastruc- in 2011. Almost half of the Nicaraguans live below ture, which might need to be retrofitted, adapted the poverty level, with the poverty rate estimated or changed to suit the new conditions. However, at 42.5 percent nationally in 2009, and at 26.8 “it is not the change in flows that is important but and 63.3 percent in the urban and rural areas, the economic consequences associated with those respectively (World Bank 2012). Children are vul- flows� (Rogers 1994, p. 198). nerable to diseases because of limited access to health services and safe drinking water supply and Water demand is rising in tandem with popula- sanitation in rural areas. Only around 56 percent tion growth, while climate change reduces water of the rural population of Nicaragua has access to availability. Nicaragua’s population reached 5.45 improved drinking water sources and 36 percent million in 2005, and it is expected to increase to 7.93 have access to improved sanitation in rural areas million by 2050 (ECLAC 2010). Population growth (WHO/UNICEF 2008). This situation translates into of this magnitude, coupled with economic growth, high child mortality. The annual cost of mortality could lead to an increase in water demand, which and morbidity due to diarrheal illness—the leading is estimated at 250 percent by 2050 and more cause of water-borne illnesses, with particularly se- than 1,800 percent by 2100 in a baseline scenario vere impacts on children under five—was estimated without climate change and without improvements as high as 0.8 to 0.9 percent of GDP (World Bank in efficiency of water use. In a scenario with climate 2013). Climatic pressures are likely to undermine change, the water demand is expected to increase the reliability and quality of domestic water sup- by 350 percent by 2050 and more than 2,750 by plies further, posing further challenges to the at- 2100 (ECLAC 2010). Meanwhile, water balance tainment of Nicaragua’s goals on reducing child 15 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua mortality. Land degradation and deforestation are proach used in this bottom-up assessment is de- additional factors that accentuate the country’s scribed in Box 2. The assessment corroborates the vulnerability. In 2010, annual deforestation was vulnerability of water resources and infrastructure estimated at 70,000 hectares; statistics for 2005– to the changing climate in rural Nicaragua. Field 2010 show that the country has lost one tenth of observations of the seven sub-basins in Nicara- its forest (ECLAC 2011a). gua’s western and central regions, selected to have a good geographic spread and to provide a range Climate Change Impacts on the Water of problems in terms of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation responses in the water Supply and Sanitation Sector supply and sanitation sector, have revealed the high In order to assess the potential climate change extent of watershed degradation and the prevalent impacts on the water supply and sanitation sec- unsustainable land-use practices, especially due to tor in this study, the top-down assessment was deforestation associated with intensive agriculture complemented with a bottom-up assessment, and livestock raising, and the increasing population which was carried out through a rapid diagnos- density. For more details on the areas covered in the tic field study of seven sub-basins. The overall ap- field assessment refer to Table 1 and Figure 12. Box 2. Approach Followed in the Bottom-Up Assessment An interdisciplinary team carried out rapid diagnostic field studies of selected sub-basins located in the western and central * regions of Nicaragua. The studies were aimed at identifying and assessing the climate change and water resources-related challenges faced by Nicaragua’s rural population, the state of water and sanitation infrastructure, the environmental condi- tion of the watersheds, and people’s perceptions of climate change. The sub-basins were selected with the guidance of MARENA and the New Emergency Social Investment Fund (Nuevo FISE for its acronym in Spanish – Fondo de Inversion Social para Emergencias). The selection criteria included: (i) accessibility to community settlements, (ii) population density, (iii) risk of droughts and floods, (iv) presence of water and sanitation infra- structure, (v) existence of Water and Sanitation Committees (CAPS for its acronym in Spanish - Comités de Agua Potable y Saneamiento), and (vi) level of local and institutional organization. Selected sub-basins were: Río El Gallo, Río Los Quesos, Alto Río Negro, Río Jicaro, Upa Wabule, Río Calico and Río Mayales. They represent different types of problems in terms of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation responses in the water supply and sanitation sector. The field assessment includes two components: (i) field visits including field observations and focus group discussions with representatives of the municipalities, members of the community such as CAPS and community boards, the Nuevo FISE and representatives of MARENA; and (ii) the administration of three surveys to evaluate communities’ socioeconomic charac- teristics and climate change perceptions, water management, land-use practices in recharge areas, perceptions of water conflict and conflict-resolution mechanisms, and water and sanitation infrastructure. For the socioeconomic survey the sample was defined to be 40 families per sub-basin (a total of 280 families). For the water management and water and sanitation surveys, the sample was defined to be five communities per municipality (with a total of 35 communities per survey) where water infrastructure was available. Both the water management and water and sanitation surveys were administered to the CAPS or community boards. The final results of these surveys only showcase a sample of 135 families (socioeconomic survey), 11 communities (water management survey), and 23 communities (water and sanitation survey), all within the municipalities of San Ramón, San Francisco de Cuapa, San Juan de Limay, and Cinco Pinos. The rest of the municipalities (Murra and San Dionisio) did not complete the surveys. * The interdisciplinary team included Patricia Parera (social development specialist), Pedro Pablo Orozco (institutional and watershed man- agement specialist), Alvaro Orozco (water supply and sanitation engineer), and David Bethune (hydrogeologist). The field visits took place from November 13 to 22, 2011. The questionnaires were administered by the municipal authorities. The sample was not drawn randomly and the results are interpreted as indicative and representative only of the households included in the sample, rather than of the entire population within each sub-basin. 16 Table 1. Sub-Basins Covered by the Bottom-up Assessment Sub-basin Department Municipality Micro-basin Community Upa Guabule Matagalpa San Ramón Río Yucul, Río Jicaro San Pablo, Jicaro Río Los Quesos Estelí San Juan de Limay Comayagua La Fraternidad Río El Gallo Chinandega Cinco Pinos Río Las Pozas Las Pozas Río Cálico Matagalpa San Dionisio * Jicaro, Susuli Jicaro, Susuli and Zapote San José de Río Negro Alto Madriz Río Imire El Lajero Cusmapa Río Jicaro Nueva Segovia Murra * Olingo San Gregorio Los Potreros, Mayales El Cobano, Las Lajitas, El Río Mayales Chontales Juigalpa and Cuapa Abajo Melero Note: *These municipalities were included in the field visit but no questionnaires have been received. Source: World Bank (2011a). Figure 12. Location of Sub-Basins Included in the Bottom-up Assessment Source: Prepared by the authors. 17 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Water sources, types of infrastructure, and pres- ducts are already non-operational due to the drop sures from climate change vary across the sub- in water table levels. Systems built over the past basins. In the sub-basins surveyed, as elsewhere 20 years have become obsolete within a few years in the rural areas of Nicaragua, the water infra- of operation. Clearly, climate change is posing new structure consists of diverse systems that vary ac- environmental conditions and changes to the water cording to the community’s location in the basin: balance; thus, the building of new water infrastruc- manual wells and wells with electric pumps in the ture and the retrofitting of existing infrastructure lower parts of the sub-basins; and gravity-based needs to rely on hydrological studies, current cli- micro-aqueducts and micro-aqueducts with pump- mate variability and the expected climate change ing systems in the middle and upper parts of the dynamics. sub-basins. In areas where water infrastructure is unavailable, community members carry water in In the face of climate change, equally important buckets from either a communal artesian well or are the location of water infrastructure and its nearby surface water sources such as creeks, riv- maintenance. There is a high risk of water contam- ers or springs. According to field observation and ination when wells are surrounded by sanitation expert opinion, current pressures on water resourc- works with poor waterproofing and drainage sys- es undermine water security in the areas of the tems, and/or when solid waste and grey-water are study, and pose a higher risk of increasing water disposed in their proximity. Choosing the right loca- scarcity when coupled with climate change effects tion for new wells and building simple live fences (see Box 3). around the water source would prevent anthropo- genic water contamination. Live fences control the In a scenario of increasing temperatures, po- movement of animals and transport of wastes, and tential drought events, and intense flash floods, act as plant buffer zones to hold sediments and water resources of these seven sub-basins are reduce runoff and the transfer of pollutants. vulnerable in terms of increasing water scarcity and pollution. The following impacts will likely oc- Rural communities are already experiencing the cur: (i) higher frequency and intensity of floods and impacts of climate change and are concerned landslides, triggering more erosion and runoff in with those impacts. Local consultations with 12 the upper part of the sub-basins, and sedimenta- communities within the selected sub-basins, car- tion and intense runoff downstream; (ii) diminish- ried out as part of the field assessment, reflect ing groundwater levels with a consequent reduc- the communities’ perceptions and observations tion in spring and aquifer flows, which would tend regarding the effects of climate change on their to worsen during the dry season; and (iii) increas- livelihoods, as well as their concerns about water ing contamination of water resources such as aqui- availability for household use in the near future. fers and springs due to the transport of pollutants Although communities lack in-depth knowledge through runoff, overflow of sanitation systems, and about climate change, they perceive that climate soil saturation. risks and uncertainty have increased. They con- firm that the occurrence of extreme events, such The rapid assessments of the existing water in- as floods, droughts, river bank erosion, landslides, frastructure in the sub-basins visited also show storms and heat waves, has increased in recent that some manual wells and even micro-aque- years (see Box 4). 18 Box 3. The Hydrology of Nicaragua’s Watersheds and the Climate Adaptation Response Rapid diagnostic field studies of selected sub-basins included rapid hydrological assessments. These were carried out to as- sess vulnerability to climate change and the adaptation response in the rural water supply and sanitation sector. Based on the results of field studies, it became apparent that the water supply sources in some communities are much more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than in others. The following factors affect the extent of the vulnerability to climate change and the types of required adaptation measures:  Rural water supply systems that depend on surface water sources tend to be the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is the case of the communities of San Pablo, La Fraternidad, El Jícaro, El Jícaro 2 and Susulí. Groundwater- based water supply systems are less vulnerable to the effects of drought and flooding because groundwater aquifers are natural storage reservoirs that can absorb some level of fluctuation in the amount of water available. Within this category, groundwater aquifers with larger recharge areas, such as the aquifers in downstream, flatter regions, are less vulnerable than the aquifers in upstream areas with more mountainous terrain. The water source of the El Cobano belongs to this sub- category.  Deforestation and poor land-use management practices in upstream areas result in erosion and higher runoff during heavy rains and tropical storms. Deforestation leads to a decrease in groundwater recharge and an increase in surface wa- ter runoff; this in turn leads to soil erosion and flooding downstream. Soils are easily eroded without deep-rooted vegetation and are less able to infiltrate water downward to the water table. Thus, increasing forest cover in upstream areas is an ef- fective way to enhance water availability in surface and groundwater sources, and to reduce the risk of flooding. Exact types of species and density of vegetation in the recharge areas must be selected to ensure that recharge is maximized, which means that runoff, evaporation and transpiration are minimized. The upper parts of the watershed, where groundwater is recharged, need to be prioritized in terms of land-use management since poor land use in these areas is impacting commu- nities further downstream in the watersheds. In all communities assessed, it was found that more than half of the recharge area was under crop cultivation, cattle raising or both.  Water from surface water drainage systems, which can be mapped and its flow rates measured, needs to be captured and diverted into the ground so that aquifers can be recharged. In addition to increasing storage, water is purified naturally. Artificial diversion and recharge is a well-known engineering practice and includes retention and filtration ponds, trenches or wells. Roads in mountainous areas are notorious for providing a pathway for stormwater runoff and should be constructed in such a way that runoff is captured and filtered into the ground and, if possible, not located in groundwater recharge areas.  Water supply systems that depend on shallow groundwater aquifers are also vulnerable because a small drop in the level of the water table can render the wells dry; the wells are often developed only as deep as the water table in order to save money and effort. As a climate adaptation measure, wells should be developed well below the water table to ensure that they are not vulnerable to drought and are protected from pollution. However, because the investment and operating costs of such wells will increase, it is necessary to prioritize the areas where these more costly investments are justified.  Poor well maintenance may also cause disruptions or reductions in water supply. Wells become clogged over time and re- quire periodic cleaning so water can freely enter the well. Community water-supply wells are sometimes not representative of the actual conditions of groundwater because they are sometimes poorly protected from the entry of surface water, are prone to clogging that leads to a reduction in flow, and are often pumped, meaning that the level is not representative of the groundwater. The only way to properly measure water table elevation or groundwater quality is by constructing special, small- scale monitoring wells that are not pumped for water supply. Monitoring wells are needed in order to identify areas where the water table is most vulnerable to changes in recharge and where the additional investment is justified and necessary.  Geological conditions prevailing in rural areas of Nicaragua make the questions of water supply and sanitation inseparable. In the mountains, soils tend to be very thin over fractured rock. Thus, pollution from traditional pit latrines quickly percolates through the soil and into the fractured rock without having enough time to filter and naturally decompose. Polluted water easily and quickly seeps downward through the fractures to the water table. More frequent droughts, anticipated in many areas as a result of climate change, lead to an increase in the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution because there is less dilution with clean rainfall. Thus, the more concentrated pollutant loads from latrines could easily reach water wells or local surface water supplies. It is therefore imperative to continue experimenting with ecological latrines that do not dispose human waste in local soils but instead either treat the waste on site or collect it for transport. Such initiatives have proved challenging because they require behavioral change, but continue piloting these approaches is necessary, especially as the drought conditions become more prevalent in many parts of the country. Source: Bethune, D. (2012), personal communication. 19 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua The findings of the socioeconomic survey further corroborate the concern about the impacts of Policy Recommendations and Conclusions Although the projections of climate models climate change on the availability and quality of alone are not definitive enough to guide adapta- water in rural areas, in addition to the many prob- tion measures, when combined with the results lems that the rural communities face. Among the of field observation they result in a set of clear sampled households, the average number of fam- recommendations to facilitate adaptation to ily members per household is five; their education climate variability and change in the water sup- level is mainly primary school (84 percent of the ply and sanitation sector in rural Nicaragua. The sample) and only one percent has reached the uni- three key policy recommendations are: (i) enhanc- versity level. The main economic activity (also 84 ing hydro-meteorological monitoring and baseline percent of the sample) is agriculture and 54 per- information systems, environmental and climate cent of the sample receives less than C$1,000 as change education and incentives to promote the monthly income and 29 percent receives between protection and sustainable use of water sources; C$1,001 and C$2,000. In response to open-ended (ii) improving the resilience of water and sanitation questions, many households have pointed to the infrastructure to climate change through tradition- range of solutions that would be needed in order al and innovative technological solutions; and (iii) to adapt to climate change, including the strength- strengthening water management institutions at ening of local institutions (municipalities, potable the national, municipal and community levels. water and sanitation committees, and other com- munity organizations), environmental education, Climate change adaptation requires having in investment in infrastructure, and protection of place a comprehensive monitoring and evalua- water sources (mainly by reducing deforestation, tion system. A key characteristic of the system is to afforestation, and limiting the access of cattle to make accessible reliable information about current water sources). climate variability impacts and potential climate Box 4. People’s Perceptions of their Changing Environment and Climate An assessment of people’s perceptions of climate change impacts was conducted in the seven sub-basins. The perceptions revealed how the communities have been affected by climate changes over the years. According to the community members interviewed, climate risks and hazards are increasing in terms of magnitude, and the frequency and severity of impacts are high compared to past events. The following are literal comments from interviewed community members: “The climate is hotter compared to 30 years ago, rainfall is more intense, but water flows in creeks, rivers and wells have decreased.� “15 years ago this basin never went dry.� “We have experienced crop losses due to lack of rain and to intense and abundant rainfall.� “During the tropical storm of 2011, we were locked in this place for 15 days, with no means of communication or transportation.� “Water levels of wells have lowered and the wells are no longer operational.� 20 change impacts to decision makers and the pub- in the climate change scenario. “Climate-justified� lic at large. Nicaragua needs to continue making measures may include constructing new infra- efforts to improve its hydro-meteorological moni- structure (dams, water conveyance systems, irri- toring system and conduct climate change impact gation systems), retrofitting existing infrastructure, analysis and vulnerability assessments based on changing rules of operation, tapping new sources latest research, data, modeling tools and lessons of water (e.g., desalination, wastewater reuse), wa- from experience. ter transfers, joint use of surface and groundwa- ter, and innovative demand management, among Adaptation to climate variability and climate others. However, many of these measures may be change impacts in Nicaragua’s rural water and of the “no regrets� type, depending on the specif- sanitation sector needs to be framed at the local ic circumstances. Whether they belong to one or level through an integrated, coordinated, multi- the other category will have to be determined on a sectoral risk management strategy. Adaptation case-by-case basis (Alavian et al. 2009). strategies such as low-cost and sustainable water- harvesting technologies and investment in climate- Water metering, rain harvesting and storage, resilient infrastructure will be more effective when construction of new wells and retrofitting of old combined with long-term planning for climate ones, and watershed protection are among the change adaptation, the strengthening of water re- main interventions to be included in an adapta- sources management institutions, and adoption of tion program for Nicaragua’s rural water supply incentives to promote sustainable use and protec- sector. The field assessment of the seven sub-ba- tion of water sources. sins concluded that these demand- and supply-side management measures could address the current Potential adaptation options can be categorized and future climate change impacts faced by com- as “no regret� and those that are “climate justi- munities. Adaptation works should also focus on fied�. Many of the options to reduce vulnerability to restoring the natural water balance and managing climate variability are no different in a world with cli- both droughts and intense rainfall. Specific adapta- mate change than they are in the baseline scenar- tion works may include: (i) rain harvesting on roofs, io without climate change. They include demand- and underground storage through gravel drains; (ii) management measures to increase water-use runoff harvesting and underground storage through efficiency and productivity, such as water-conserv- gravel drains, mini-trenches, or filtration ponds; ing irrigation technologies; wastewater recycling; (iii) watershed restoration, especially in the upper economic incentives including water pricing; and parts of basins, using reforestation and organic ag- the encouragement of water markets, where the ricultural programs to limit the load of chemicals in institutional conditions are right, that move water the water; (iv) protection of water sources (springs to high-valued uses. They also include, for example, and wells) from agricultural and latrine pollution; measures to improve early-warning systems and and (v) construction of horizontal wells on hillsides risk management (e.g., disaster insurance). These to capture groundwater, thus limiting the use of are “no regret� options because they would gener- pumps. The design of these works should never- ate net social and/or economic benefits regardless theless be based on hydrological studies in order to of whether or not climate change occurs. On the thoroughly understand the actual state of the water other hand, other actions might only be justifiable balance. The studies would provide accurate tools 21 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua to develop informative, effective and sustainable incorporate considerable tree cover in cropland adaptation solutions. and pastures (i.e., agroforestry and silvopastoral practices) which are particularly attractive because Demand- and supply-side management measures they are usually profitable for farmers once estab- should be complemented by community-driven lished, and they provide additional income and re- development and community-driven disaster risk duce costs by requiring lower input levels and by management. This approach consists of integrat- diversifying production. They are also adaptive for ing the social dimensions of climate change in the farmers, because they can reduce in situ tempera- adaptation program for rural Nicaragua’s water sup- tures and because they are less vulnerable to dam- ply sector in order to strengthen the existing adap- age from more intensive rainfall. In some cases, tive capacity of communities and local institutions agroforestry or silvopastoral practices will be insuf- and build long-term resilience. These would help ficient to provide the necessary level of protection design and implement community-based develop- to water sources: for example, where slopes are too ment and institutional strengthening activities that steep or where proximity to potable water sources enhance local people’s capacity to adapt to climate makes the presence of livestock or intensive crop variability and volatility. Effective local adaptation production unacceptable. In such cases, land uses requires local institutions that are responsive and such as reforestation are likely to be necessary to adaptive to the uncertainties associated with cli- protect water sources from the impact of climate mate change. Institutions shape adaptive capac- change. ity at the local and national levels and are critical in ensuring that the results of adaptation efforts Municipal-level planning in support of climate match their intentions. In order to function effec- change adaptation in the sector needs to accom- tively, they must be transparent and accountable pany measures that seek to change local-level to citizens (World Bank 2011b). water infrastructure, water resources manage- ment and land use practices. Effective planning Water infrastructure improvement needs to be tools to guide municipal-level investment in the wa- implemented in conjunction with water resourc- ter supply and sanitation sector and to guide com- es protection programs that would increase resil- plementary investments to protect water sources ience to climate change. Many sustainable land and increase their resilience to climate variability uses could help reduce the impact of changing and climate change are urgently needed in vulner- precipitation patterns by helping to: (i) increase fil- able areas. The methodologies for adaptive plan- tration, (ii) reduce runoff, (iii) reduce erosion, and/ ning in the water supply and sanitation sector have or (iv) anchor hillsides to reduce the risk of land- been tested elsewhere in the region, but no one- slides. Land-use practices that increase filtration, size-fits-all solutions are available. In order to be ef- for example, would help reduce the impact of more fective, adaptation planning needs to be informed intense and more variable rainfall by reducing the by technical data on the current and future climatic portion that is lost to runoff. Ensuring that such pressures, other socio-economic and institutional land uses are adopted or maintained in areas that factors that affect the availability and reliability of supply water systems would thus help protect them water supplies, and set clear priorities and an ac- from the impact of climate change. Among the tion and investment agenda. In Nicaragua, MARE- practices that would help reduce the impact of cli- NA has piloted the application of Municipal-Level mate change on water supplies are practices that Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the water 22 sector. Jointly with other relevant agencies (the tion and water conservation; (ii) implementation of New Emergency Social Investment Fund and the a National Program for Water Harvesting in prior- National Water Authority), MARENA is now planning ity watersheds; (iii) design and implementation of to expand the scope of the strategies and develop adaptive measures to cope with climate change, them as a tool for guiding the design of investment including construction of wells and aqueducts, programs at the municipal level that integrate cli- rainwater harvesting and storage, climate-resistant mate adaptation considerations in the package of seeds, and crop diversification; (iv) strengthening infrastructure and watershed protection measures. of climate and meteorology information systems and early warning systems; and (v) implementa- The policy recommendations and conclusions re- tion of watershed management programs for water sulting from this study are framed within Nicara- quality and flow conservation. gua’s national context and specifically in accor- dance with its National Climate Change Strategy Together with MARENA they taking the lead in (NCCS). The NCCS, developed as a mandate of the bringing together international partners and do- National Development Plan, is aimed at strength- nors to design and implement adaptation plans ening national and local capacities for climate in the most vulnerable watersheds and rural com- change adaptation and mainstreaming climate munities. In the water supply and sanitation sector, change in the country’s policy planning, municipal MARENA is engaged in the process of developing and regional government plans. The NCCS has five the environmental sustainability and climate adap- strategic pillars: (i) environmental education; (ii) tation pillar of the Master Plan for the Water Supply natural resources protection; (iii) water resources and Sanitation Sector, currently under preparation conservation and restoration, and water harvest- in Nicaragua. The policy recommendations and ing; (iv) climate change adaptation and mitigation, conclusions in this paper are expected to contrib- and risk management; and (v) sustainable land ute to the design of informative and effective ad- use. The action agenda includes specific projects aptation strategies in the Master Plan and more for each pillar, such as: (i) implementation of for- broadly for the rural water supply and sanitation est management programs for ecosystem restora- sector of Nicaragua. 23 References Alavian, V., H. Qaddumi, E. Dickson, S. Diez, A. Danilenko, INETER (Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales). La R. Hirji, G. Puz, C. Pizarro, M. Jacobsen, and B. Blankespoor. Sequia Available at: http://webserver2.ineter.gob.ni/Direccio- 2009. Water and Climate Change: Understanding the Risks nes/meteorologia/Desastres/sequia/la_sequia.html and Making Climate-Smart Investment Decisions. Washington: The World Bank. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. 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Methodology Used in the Analysis to Assess Hydrological Impacts of Projected Climate Change Global circulation models (GCMs) are systems that with increases being particularly marked in the pe- use quantitative methods to enhance the under- riod between July and October. However, predicted standing and prediction of future climate change, changes in precipitation for the same period varied including calculating as accurately as possible what substantially, ranging from increases of 40 to 60 would happen to surface temperature, precipitation percent to decreases of 50 to 60 percent. and other climate-related variables. GCMs have mostly been designed to examine mitigation needs For the assessment of the impacts of climate and are not well suited to examining adaptation re- change on Nicaragua’s hydrology, two web-based quirements, although their use for this purpose has tools—AguAAndes and Climate Wizard—were used. been growing (Schiermeier 2007; Wilby et al. 2009; A brief description of each of these tools is provid- Xu et al. 2009; Kundzewicz and Stakhiv 2010; and ed below. Wilby 2010). Available GCMs are too coarse and do not necessarily focus on the variables of most in- • Climate Wizard (www.climatewizard.org) is a terest for adaptation. Because of climate change, web-based platform developed by the Nature previous hydrological patterns provide poor guid- Conservancy, the University of Washington, and ance to future water management needs (Milly et the University of Southern Mississippi. The sys- al. 2008). Minville and others (2008) find that the tem provides historic temperature and precipita- predicted effect of climate change on hydrology is tion data and maps for everywhere in the world strongly dependent on the GCM used; they recom- and future predictions of the same variables mend interpreting with caution any estimates that around the globe at a resolution of 12 or 50 rely on a single GCM. In many areas, GCMs tend square kilometers (km2). Climate Wizard uses to vary substantially on how precipitation will be two common approaches to represent climate affected, and they disagree on the magnitude and change data: comparing climate in a given year even the sign of the change (Nohara et al. 2006; or time period to a baseline period, and calcu- Bates et al. 2008; and Kundzewicz et al. 2008). lating statistical climate trends over a time pe- riod of interest using linear trend analysis that In its Second National Communication to the United accounts for the time-series nature of climate Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change data. This tool allows the selection of the area of (UNFCCC) (MARENA 2008b), Nicaragua used the interest (the entire country of Nicaragua or any HadCM3 and ECHAM4 GCMs, under emission sce- other customized area) and the visualization of narios A2 and B2, and then used PRECIS to gener- the climate change that has occurred to date as ate more detailed estimates of the impacts of cli- well as the climate change that is predicted to mate change. These models estimate temperature occur in the future under the A2, A1B and B1 increases of 3°C to 4°C in the 2071–2099 period, greenhouse gas emission scenarios. 27 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua • AguAAndes (www.policysupport.org/aguaandes) however required. AguAAndes7 is one of the few is a web-based, free policy support system tools freely available that allows non-experts to based on the FIESTA hydrological model and oth- “apply downscaled ensemble climate change er previous policy support systems. AguAAndes and land use change scenario to the hydrological is a test bed for the development and implemen- baseline� (Muligan and van Soesbergen 2011). tation of climate and land-use changes as well as water and land policies and management The first step in the simulations for Nicaragua was interventions. It incorporates detailed spatial to generate the baseline using AguAAndes. This datasets at 1-km2 and 1-hectare resolution glob- baseline represents the year 2000 in terms of land ally, temporal datasets at monthly resolution, use and land cover, and the mean of the 1950– and spatial models for biophysical and socioeco- 2000 period for the climate variables. The area of nomic processes. It provides scenario tools for analysis was defined with a 10-degree tile at 1-km climate change and land-use changes, and al- resolution, with boundaries 20o North, 10o South, lows visualization, analysis and download of all -90o East, and -80o West. Before running the hy- output variables. The developers of this tool rec- drological model, the required data were prepared. ommend its use when there is no hydrological AguAAndes performs this automatically and orga- baseline or limited local data (as it is the case nizes about 150 files at 1-km spatial scale that cor- in Nicaragua). A quick and detailed assessment respond to the geographical 10-degree tile contain- of the projection of climate changes or deltas is ing the area of interest. The baseline climate and Figure A.1. Precipitation and Evapo-transpiration for the Baseline Period (1950–2000) Note: Sub-basins where the bottom-up assessment was conducted are shown with red border. Source: Prepared by the authors. 7 WaterWorld, the global version of the AguAAndes model, is available at the following address: www.policysupport.org/waterworld. 28 Figure A.2. Water Balance and Runoff for the Baseline Period (1950-2000) Note: Sub-basins where the bottom-up assessment was conducted are shown with red border. Source: Prepared by the authors. Table A.1. Global Climate Change Models Available in Climate Wizard for Scenario A2 Model Developer Country BCCR-BCM2.0 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Norway CGCM3.1(T47) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis Canada CNRM-CM3 Météo-France/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques France CSIRO-Mk3.0 CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia GFDL-CM2.0 US Dept. of Commerce/NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM2.1 US Dept. of Commerce/NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GISS-ER NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA INM-CM3.0 Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia IPSL-CM4 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace France Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National MIROC3.2 (medres) Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Japan Change (JAMSTEC) Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Germany/ ECHO-G Institute of KMA, and Model and Data Group Korea ECHAM5/MPI-OM Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany MRI-CGCM2.3.2 Meteorological Research Institute Japan CCSM3 National Center for Atmospheric Research USA PCM National Center for Atmospheric Research USA UKMO-HadCM3 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met Office UK Source: Climate Wizard available from: http://www.climatewizard.org/FAQ.html. 29 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua non-climate variables available for analysis includ- raster maps to 0.5 degrees. Each map was then ed rainfall, water balance, runoff, evapo-transpira- overlapped with a macro-watershed map of Nica- tion, mean temperature, soil erosion, among oth- ragua to facilitate analysis at the basin level. In or- ers. The data and maps generated by AguAAndes der to do that, the coordinate systems of the raster were downloaded in ASCII grid format (see Figures maps were configured in the same coordinate sys- A.1 and A.2). tems of the macro-watershed map. The second step of the climate change assessment The next step involved the definition of the three consisted of analyzing the change in temperature possible future scenarios: a warm-dry future sce- and precipitation for various GCMs using data pro- nario, a cool-wet future scenario, and a moderate vided by Climate Wizard. The projected changes in future scenario. Making use of the maps show- temperature and precipitation for Nicaragua were ing the changes in temperature and precipitation, carried out under the A2 emission scenario and two extreme models were selected to represent used the 16 GCMs available in Climate Wizard (Ta- the warm-dry and cool-wet future scenarios. This ble A.1). was done in order to have a sense of the likely up- per and lower bounds on possible effects. For the Although the A2 scenario is considered the less country as a whole, the UKMO-HADCM3.1 model conservative one (even though it is not the high- represents the warm-dry future scenario and the est of the IPCC emission scenarios through 2100), NCAR-PCM1.1 model represents the cool-wet fu- according to actual evidence it seems that current ture scenario. The average of the 16 GCMs was greenhouse gas emissions are above the A2 emis- used to represent the moderate future scenario. sion projections. Furthermore, differences in the projections issued from various emission scenarios Once the future scenarios were defined, hydrologi- for the same GCM are considered not generally sig- cal simulations were run for each of the scenarios, nificant from the 2050s time horizon. using AguAAndes. For each of these three future scenarios, changes in hydrological parameters by For every GCM, maps of temperature change and the 2050s (2040–2060) compared to the base- precipitation change were developed for a total of line period (1950–2000) as well as absolute val- 32 maps (see Figures 7 and 8 in main text). Each ues for the future scenario and the baseline were map represents the temperature or precipitation obtained: (i) evapo-transpiration, (ii) surface runoff, change projected by the specific climate model and (iii) water balance (the difference between pre- run under the A2 scenario for 2040–2069 as com- cipitation and evapo-transporation). The results of pared to 1961–1990. The 32 maps were down- these simulations were downloaded in raster for- loaded in .txt format and converted into raster (.img mat for each hydrological variable. Results are pre- format) using ARC Catalog. The resample function sented in Figures A.3, A.4, A.5, and A.6. of ARCGIS was used to change the cell size of all 30 Figure A.3. Expected Changes in Precipitation in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios Note: Sub-basins where the bottom-up assessment was conducted are shown with a brown border. Source: Prepared by the authors. 31 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Figure A.4. Expected Changes in Evapo-transpiration in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios Note: Sub-basins where the bottom-up assessment was conducted are shown with a brown border. Source: Prepared by the authors. 32 Figure A.5. Expected Changes in Water Balance in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios Note: Sub-basins where the bottom-up assessment was conducted are shown with a brown border. Source: Prepared by the authors. 33 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua Figure A.6. Expected Changes in Runoff in the Warm-Dry, Moderate and Cool-Wet Future Scenarios Note: Sub-basins where the bottom-up assessment was conducted are shown with a brown border. Source: Prepared by the authors. 34 Figure A.7. Projected Changes in Precipitation, Evapo-transpiration and Water Balance 10% 0% -10% Change in Precipitation -20% -30% -40% -50% Warm-Dry Moderate Cool-Wet -60% -70% 20% 15% Change in Evapo-transpiration 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Warm-Dry Moderate Cool-Wet -15% -20% 10% 5% 0% Change in Water Balance -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Warm-Dry Moderate Cool-Wet -30% -35% -40% 35 Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua With the help of Arc Map and the Spatial Analyst projected changes in precipitation across the three extension, projected changes in hydrological vari- scenarios in each of the basins analyzed, the net ables were calculated for each of the 21 basins impact of climate change on the water balance of (see Figure A.7 and Figure 10 in main text). Al- 14 basins is negative for the three future scenarios though there is no agreement on the direction of considered (Table A.2 and Figure A.8). Table A.2. Direction of Change of Precipitation, Evapo-transpiration and Water Balance by Basin Basin Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Water Balance Between Río Brito–Río Sapoa ↓ ↑ ↓ Between Río Escondido–Río Punta Gorda ↓ ↑ ↓ Between Río Kurinwas–Río Escondido ↓ ↑ ↓ Between Río Punta Gorda–Río San Juan ? ? ? Between Río Tamarindo–Río Brito ↓ ↑ ↓ Between Volcan Cosiguina–Río Tamarindo ↓ ↑ ↓ Lago de Apanas ? ? ↓ Laguna de Bismuna ↓ ? ↓ Río Brito ↓ ↑ ↓ Río Coco ? ? ? Río Escondido ? ? ? Río Estero Real ? ? ↓ Río Grande de Matagalpa ↓ ? ↓ Río Kukalaya ↓ ? ↓ Río Kurimwas ? ? ↓ Río Negro ? ? ? Río Prinzapolka ↓ ? ↓ Río Punta Gorda ? ? ? Río San Juan ? ? ? Río Ulang ↓ ↑ ↓ Río Wawa ↓ ? ? Note: Rows in green are for basins draining into the Pacific Ocean. Source: Prepared by authors. 36 Figure A.8: Direction of Change by Basin Source: Prepared by authors. 37 Publications from the LCSEN Occasional Paper Series Environment & Water Resources n Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua (2013) (Available in English and Spanish) n Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management: Adaptation Challenges and Opportunities in Northeast Brazil (2013) n El Futuro del Riego en el Perú: Desafíos y Recomendaciones (Volumen I: Informe de Síntesis y Volumen II: Informe Principal) (2013) n Empowering Women in Irrigation Management: The Sierra in Peru (2012) n Environmental Health in Nicaragua: Addressing Key Environmental Challenges (Originally Published in 2010, Republished in 2012) (Available in Spanish and English) n Expanding Financing for Biodiversity Conservation: Experiences from Latin America and the Caribbean (2012) (Available in English and Spanish) n Overcoming Institutional and Governance Challenges in Environmental Management. Case Studies from Latin America and the Caribbean Region (2012) n Policy and Investment Priorities to Reduce Environmental Degradation of the Lake Nicaragua Watershed (Cocibolca) (Originally Published in 2010, Republished in 2012) (Available in Spanish and English) n Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions; The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico (2012) To find copies of these publications, please visit our website: www.worldbank.org/lac 39 LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN REGION Environment & Water Resources OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES