54365 54365 Commodity Markets Review March 9, 2010 DECPG, The World Bank Non-energy commodity prices fell by 3.6 Agriculture prices decreased 2.7 percent in percent in February, with relatively large February, with relatively large declines among declines in all main indices. However, prices for food and beverages. The largest falls were in a number of commodities rallied later in the soybeans and soymeal, down 7 percent, due to month and into early March on a stronger dollar. record harvest and exports in Brazil. Cocoa Crude oil prices fell 3.1 percent in February prices fell more than 6 percent as rain in Côte to average $74.8/bbl. However, prices rose d'Ivoire reduced earlier fears that dry weather steadily during the month and topped $80/bbl in would affect crops. Sorghum prices declined 5 early March. Oil market fundamentals have been percent on higher than expected corn harvests in slowly tightening, with stocks continuing to Brazil and Argentina (corn and maize are close diminish--particularly for products as cold- substitutes). Sugar prices fell 4 percent after the weather demand helped shrink the global EU announced that it would increase exports distillate glut. Declines in OECD oil demand beyond its WTO export limit--but this triggered continue to moderate, with preliminary U.S. oil discussions of possible legal action by other key demand for February up 3% y/y. Much of the sugar suppliers. U.S. growth was in non-transport demand, with Metals and minerals prices declined 5.5 distillate down 5%--reflecting the ongoing percent in February compared with average slump in commercial transport. OPEC meets on January prices, with only nickel prices recording March 17th, but is unlikely to alter output targets a gain. However, prices for all metals rose later if prices remain near their $70-80 trading range in the month and into early March on of the past five months. expectations of stronger demand. LME U.S. natural gas prices dropped 8.1 percent inventories, while higher in February for most in February, despite cold weather and snow metals, have recently started to decline in all storms, because of ample storage and cases except for lead--the latter reflecting moderating temperatures later in the month. renewed processing at the Magellan mine in Strong production growth has also weighed Australia (which was closed for nearly three heavily on prices, especially unconventional years for environmental reasons). Nickel prices shale gas. Imports have increased recently, both are up 30% since early February on higher pipeline gas from Canada and seaborne liquefied stainless steel production and ongoing strikes at natural gas (LNG). Vale's Canadian operations. Major Price Indices Agriculture Prices - Sub-Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) 500 300 450 275 Beverages 400 250 Energy 350 Metals and 225 Minerals 300 200 Food 250 175 Raw Materials 200 150 Agriculture 150 125 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Shane Streifel, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Katherine Rollins is task assistant. 1 Major Movers February1 Aluminum prices decreased 8.3 percent as the DAP, phosphate rock and urea fertilizer market surplus continues and stocks remain near prices jumped 14.7, 6.4, and 4.7 percent, record highs. respectively--up for a third straight month--due Lead prices fell 10.3 percent, owing to an 8% to strong demand in Latin America, and rise in LME stocks. Processing has restarted at improving demand in Asia. Australia's Magellan mine, which was Beef prices increased 5.9 percent on seasonally suspended nearly 3 years due to concerns of lead tight supplies in Australia. poisoning at the shipping port. Goundnut oil prices rose 4.9 percent owing to Silver prices declined 10.6 percent given ample supplies, especially from Senegal which reduced investment demand and stronger dollar. benefitted from favorable weather conditions. Zinc prices dropped 11.4 percent, reflecting a Cotton prices rose 3.3 percent on reports that 10% jump in LME inventories, and a global U.S. stock levels declined considerably, and that market that remains in surplus. global output will fall slightly short of demand. Percent Changes in Price, Nominal US $ Wheat prices fell 3.6 percent reflecting ample -20 0 20 40 60 global supplies. India announced that this DAP season's crop will increase by 2 million tons. Phosphate rock -34.1 Sugar prices fell 4.1 percent after the EU Beef announced that it would increase exports beyond Groundnut oil its WTO export limit by 0.5 million tons. That Urea, bulk Cotton, A Index announcement sparked discussions of legal Nickel 82.3 action by other key sugar suppliers. Palmkernel oil Sorghum prices declined 4.8 percent due to Coconut oil higher-than-expected corn harvests in Brazil and TSP Rubber, Singapore 113.7 Argentina (corn and maize are close substitutes). Palm oil Potassium Chloride prices decreased 5.5 LNG percent, reflecting still weak demand for the Natural gas, Europe -20.3 fertilizer and surplus capacity. Tea, avg 3 auctions Coffee, arabica Rice prices fell 6.1 percent following Thailand's Soybean oil attempt to sell almost 2 million tons from state Sawnwood Malaysia Feb '10/Jan '10 stockpiles to alleviate the high cost of storage. Gold Logs, Malaysia Feb '10/Feb '09 Cocoa prices fell 6.5 percent as the return of -21.6 Coal, Australia rains in Côte d'Ivoire helped allay fears that Crude oil, average spot 78.7 earlier dry weather would affect crops. Coffee, robusta Soybeans and soymeal prices decreased 7.1 and Maize 6.9 percent, respectively, due to Brazil's record Wheat, US, HRW Sugar, world 91.3 harvest and exports. Sorghum Copper prices fell 7.3 percent, in part due to a Potassium chloride -61.6 rise in LME inventories, but prices remain at Rice, Thai, 5% Cocoa elevated levels on supply concerns should global Soybean meal demand rebound. Soybeans Tin prices declined 7.6 percent, in line with Copper 106.6 other metals, despite being the one metal to Tin Natural gas, US record a decline in inventories for the month. Aluminum Natural gas (U.S.) prices dropped 8.1 percent Lead 93.0 due to moderating temperatures, ample stocks, Silver and increases in supply. Zinc 94.0 1 Percent change of average February 2010 prices compared to average January 2010 prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph includes 12-month changes in grey). 2 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Feb Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Dec Jan Feb Commodity Unit 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt 27.1 1 0 71.84 95.60 92.97 71 .93 66.48 71.31 77.66 83.10 97.00 94.19 Crude oil, avg, spot a/ $/bbl 96.99 61.76 75.94 56.00 44.11 59.19 68.21 75.50 74.88 77.12 74.76 Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 97.64 61.86 75.34 55.89 44.98 59.13 68.37 74.97 74.67 76.37 74.31 Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 93.78 61.75 75.10 53.67 44.56 58.93 68.07 75.46 75.49 76.64 73.56 Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl 99.56 61.65 77.38 58.45 42.80 59.52 68.21 76.08 74.49 78.36 76.41 Natural gas Index a/ 2000=100 267.9 153.5 175.4 266.2 198.2 142.9 123.3 149.4 164.4 178.3 172.5 Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu 13.41 8.71 8.80 15.75 1 .94 1 8.18 6.91 7.81 8.01 8.80 8.80 Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu 8.86 3.95 5.57 6.40 4.57 3.70 3.17 4.36 5.37 5.81 5.34 Natural gas LNG, Japan a/ $/mmbtu 12.53 8.94 10.50 14.62 10.90 7.60 7.91 9.33 9.76 10.50 10.50 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa b/ c/kg 257.7 288.9 341 .0 224.1 259.4 257.9 296.4 341.8 350.9 352.3 329.6 Coffee, Arabica b/ c/kg 308.2 317.1 349.2 267.8 283.9 320.2 322.7 341.7 348.7 350.3 348.0 Coffee, robusta b/ c/kg 232.1 164.4 152.1 192.6 175.8 165.3 160.1 156.4 154.1 154.5 149.6 Tea, auctions (3), average b/ c/kg 242.0 272.4 289.1 206.6 218.0 266.1 303.6 301.9 297.4 289.8 288.5 Tea, Colombo auctions b/ c/kg 278.9 313.7 337.7 208.8 261.7 299.1 356.1 338.0 326.7 341.1 334.3 Tea, Kolkata auctions b/ c/kg 225.5 251 .5 240.6 220.2 177.4 271.3 273.0 284.4 267.7 243.8 237.4 Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ c/kg 221.8 252.0 289.1 190.8 214.9 228.0 281 .7 283.2 297.7 284.5 293.8 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil b/ $/mt 1,224 725 790 772 677 779 711 734 768 784 795 Copra $/mt 816 480 531 520 447 513 469 491 509 524 538 Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 2,1 31 ,1 1 84 1,348 1,773 1,283 1 66 ,1 ,1 1 33 ,1 1 52 1 92 ,1 ,31 1 6 1,380 Palm oil b/ $/mt 949 683 796 512 577 743 679 732 792 793 798 Palmkernel oil $/mt ,1 1 30 700 885 609 577 763 700 761 829 878 892 Soybean meal b/ $/mt 424 408 390 320 365 424 431 412 401 404 376 Soybean oil b/ $/mt 1,258 849 919 830 755 863 856 921 935 923 915 Soybeans b/ $/mt 523 437 421 377 394 461 454 439 450 436 405 Grains Barley b/ $/mt 200.5 128.3 142.0 129.5 1 1 6.3 129.5 122.0 145.5 150.6 146.5 137.4 Maize b/ $/mt 223.1 165.5 164.6 168.4 166.9 176.0 51 1 .3 167.8 164.6 167.3 61 1 .8 Rice, Thailand, 5% b/ $/mt 650.2 555.0 551 .6 564.4 586.3 552.4 539.0 542.3 591 .0 568.8 534.3 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt n.a. 458.1 492.1 449.9 469.4 458.7 441 .4 462.8 515.3 51 0.6 473.7 Rice, Thailand, 35% $/mt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. * Rice,Thai, A1.Special / Super $/mt 482.3 326.4 1 41 .6 314.1 323.4 326.3 309.7 346.1 403.0 420.2 403.0 Sorghum $/mt 207.8 51 1 .1 157.9 51 1 .0 145.3 155.8 139.3 163.8 166.3 61 1 .8 154.1 Wheat, Canada $/mt 454.6 300.5 283.1 322.1 321 .9 325.6 271 .2 283.4 287.8 287.2 279.0 Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt 326.0 224.1 197.6 228.1 231 .6 250.5 208.8 205.4 206.3 201 .2 194.0 Wheat US SRW $/mt 271.5 186.0 195.3 182.7 187.4 195.6 165.2 195.6 206.5 198.8 91 1 .8 Other Food Bananas EU $/mt ,1 1 88 ,1 1 45 959 944 1 42 ,1 1,288 ,1 8 11 1,032 989 941 976 Bananas US b/ $/mt 844 847 753 847 891 858 826 813 796 785 720 Fishmeal $/mt ,1 1 33 1,230 1,655 1,023 ,01 1 3 1,097 1,276 1,535 1,651 1,681 1,628 Meat, beef b/ c/kg 31 3.8 263.6 303.8 268.0 245.2 262.8 273.2 273.5 280.0 295.1 31 2.5 Meat, chicken b/ c/kg 169.6 71 1 .7 166.6 174.7 173.5 174.1 173.9 165.1 164.7 166.4 166.9 Meat, sheep c/kg 458.5 427.6 456.2 41 0.0 378.5 428.7 453.3 450.1 447.5 460.9 451 .4 Oranges b/ $/mt ,1 1 07 909 1,036 842 799 870 861 ,1 1 07 ,01 1 4 1,089 982 Shrimp, Mexico b/ c/kg 1,069 945 821 1 4 ,01 976 970 970 864 794 805 838 Sugar EU domestic b/ c/kg 69.69 52.44 46.83 51 .97 51 .44 53.76 55.43 49.11 48.92 47.81 45.85 Sugar US domestic b/ c/kg 46.86 54.88 87.75 44.72 43.82 47.89 57.31 70.48 73.42 86.77 88.74 Sugar, world b/ c/kg 28.21 40.00 57.17 26.28 28.85 33.89 46.98 50.29 51 .87 58.36 55.98 Raw M aterials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 526.9 421.5 433.4 473.8 426.8 394.8 414.9 449.5 452.7 442.4 424.3 Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum 292.3 287.2 255.5 315.7 313.6 284.5 279.6 271.1 264.8 258.2 252.8 Plywood c/sheets 645.5 564.6 557.2 645.5 572.8 565.8 561.5 558.4 557.2 557.2 557.2 Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 958.3 748.9 804.5 770.8 689.2 721.2 779.0 806.3 807.7 804.1 804.9 Sawnwood, Malaysia b/ $/cum 889.1 805.5 786.7 859.9 813.7 829.7 771.4 807.4 796.0 792.4 781.0 Woodpulp $/mt 820.2 614.6 758.8 1 71 .0 565.1 550.0 627.7 715.6 731.4 752.6 765.0 Other Raw M aterials Cotton A Index b/ c/kg 157.4 138.2 173.4 126.9 120.8 132.4 41 1 .9 157.7 167.6 170.6 176.3 Cotton Memphis c/kg 61 1 .3 145.3 177.4 129.4 122.4 137.5 148.8 172.4 179.5 177.7 177.1 Rubber, US c/kg 284.1 214.6 339.2 202.8 165.8 187.0 221.0 284.7 310.0 335.1 343.3 Rubber, Singapore b/ c/kg 258.6 192.1 31 .0 1 159.0 146.0 166.4 199.3 256.5 280.1 309.2 31 2.7 continued on next page a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=100) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 3 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Feb Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Dec Jan Feb 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Fertilizers DAP b/ $/mt 967.2 323.1 459.0 663.3 362.2 303.6 309.6 316.9 360.4 427.5 490.5 Phosphate rock b/ $/mt 345.6 1 .7 21 100.6 371.3 193.3 1 1 3.3 90.0 90.0 90.0 97.5 103.8 Potassium chloride b/ $/mt 570.1 630.4 344.7 766.7 865.2 726.7 506.8 423.0 399.0 354.4 335.0 TSP b/ $/mt 879.4 257.4 298.1 658.7 321.7 247.7 224.7 235.7 232.0 296.3 300.0 Urea, E. Europe, bulk b/ $/mt 492.7 249.6 282.2 292.2 267.3 241 .1 241.6 248.3 261.1 275.8 288.6 M etals and M inerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,573 1,665 2,1 42 1,821 1,360 1,485 ,81 1 2 2,003 2,1 80 2,235 2,049 Copper b/ $/mt 6,956 5,150 1 7,1 7 3,905 3,428 4,663 5,859 6,648 6,982 7,386 6,848 Gold $/toz 872 973 1 07 ,1 795 909 922 960 ,1 1 02 ,1 1 35 ,1 8 11 1,095 Iron ore b/ c/dmtu 140.6 01 1 .0 1 .0 01 140.6 01 1 .0 1 .0 01 01 1 .0 01 1 .0 1 .0 01 01 1 .0 01 1 .0 Lead b/ c/kg 209.1 71 1 .9 224.6 124.5 1 5.7 1 149.9 192.8 229.3 232.9 236.8 21 2.4 Nickel b/ $/mt ,1 1 21 1 14,655 18,708 10,843 10,471 1 2,920 17,700 17,528 17,066 18,439 18,976 Silver c/toz 1,500 1,469 1,681 1,020 1,265 1,376 1,477 1,760 1,764 1,775 1,587 c/ 2000=1 * * Steel products index, Japan Reinstated 00 289 227 207 310 275 215 211 207 205 206 209 c/ $/mt Steel cr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 966 783 700 ,1 1 00 1,033 700 700 700 700 700 700 c/ $/mt Steel hr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 883 683 600 1,000 933 600 600 600 600 600 600 Steel, rebar, Japan, Reinstated c/ $/mt 760 486 530 630 473 450 500 522 490 51 0 550 c/ Steel wire rod, Japan, Reinstated $/mt ,01 1 0 969 750 1,200 1,200 1,007 857 81 4 768 750 750 Tin b/ c/kg 1,851 1,357 1,704 ,31 1 0 ,1 1 03 1,351 1,459 ,51 1 7 1,555 1,771 1,636 Zinc b/ c/kg 187.5 165.5 229.6 1 1 8.5 1 7.2 1 147.3 176.1 221 .4 237.6 243.4 21 5.7 NEW World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries( 2000 =100) Energy 342.0 21 4.3 263.4 21 2.9 166.3 204.5 230.3 256.1 256.8 267.5 259.3 Non Energy Commodities 272.0 21 3.2 244.4 206.3 189.9 207.8 21 9.8 235.2 241 .9 248.9 239.9 Agriculture 229.5 197.8 21 8.9 178.6 81 1 .9 197.1 199.5 212.6 21 7.7 222.0 21 5.9 Beverages 21 0.0 21 9.9 247.3 81 1 .2 197.9 207.3 226.4 247.9 252.2 252.5 242.1 Food 247.4 205.1 21 6.9 185.7 190.4 209.8 206.4 213.7 21 7.9 220.8 21 3.0 Fats and Oils 277.3 21 6.2 226.6 182.4 1 .4 91 227.9 220.9 224.5 231 .1 230.1 223.1 Grains 281 .7 21 4.9 208.7 21 8.6 221 .3 225.3 202.3 210.8 21 7.0 213.6 203.9 Other Food 177.1 1 .6 81 1 21 .6 160.2 1 .3 61 172.1 91 1 .2 202.0 201 .4 215.2 207.9 Raw Materials 195.7 168.7 209.5 160.0 1 53.1 1 .1 61 168.9 192.0 199.8 209.2 209.7 Timber 150.5 138.9 132.8 149.4 1 43.1 1 .8 41 133.6 137.3 135.1 133.8 31 1 .7 Other Raw Materials 245.3 201 .4 293.3 71 1 .6 164.0 182.2 207.5 251.8 270.6 291.5 295.1 Fertilizers 566.7 293.0 257.7 492.2 376.6 300.6 252.1 242.8 243.5 255.2 260.2 Metals and Minerals 325.7 235.6 295.1 230.6 185.0 21 9.0 257.6 280.8 291 .4 303.4 286.8 a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=100) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 4 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 Aluminum ($/mt) Coal, Australia ($/mt) 3,200 185 2,700 145 2,200 105 1,700 65 1,200 25 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Copper ($/mt) Crude Oil, Average ($/bbl) 9,000 150 7,000 125 100 5,000 75 3,000 50 1,000 25 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Gold ($/troy oz) Natural Gas, US ($/million btu) 1200 14.0 1000 11.0 800 8.0 600 5.0 400 2.0 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Nickel ($/mt) Silver (cents/ troy oz) 2000 55,000 1600 42,500 1200 30,000 800 17,500 5,000 400 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 5 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 cont'd Bananas, US ($/mt) Cocoa (cents/kg) 375 1050 325 850 275 650 225 450 175 125 250 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Coconut Oil ($/mt) Coffee (cents/kg) 1,600 350 Arabica 1,200 250 Robusta 800 150 400 50 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Cotton, A Index (cents/kg) Maize ($/mt) 180 300 250 160 200 140 150 120 100 100 50 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Palm Oil ($/mt) Rice, Thai 5% ($/mt) 1250 975 1000 775 750 575 500 375 250 175 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 6 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 cont'd Rubber, Singapore (cents/kg) Soybean Oil ($/mt) 350 1750 300 1500 250 1250 200 1000 150 750 500 100 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Soybeans ($/mt) Sugar, World (cents/kg) 65 725 55 600 45 475 35 350 25 225 15 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Tea, Average (cents/kg) Timber, Malaysia ($/cubic meter) 350 1000 Sawnwood 300 700 250 400 200 Logs 150 100 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Urea ($/mt) Wheat, US HRW ($/mt) 500 850 700 400 550 300 400 200 250 100 100 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 7