For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Mozambique CAS/CPS Year: FY12 CAS/CPS Period: FY12 – FY15 CLR Review Period: FY12 – FY15 1 Date of this review: April 12, 2017 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Fair Fair 3. Executive Summary i. Mozambique is a low income country with a GNI per capita of $1,120 in 2014. The country experienced rapid growth over the last 25 years, but high poverty rates persist, particularly in the rural areas. The economy grew at 8.0 percent per year between 1992 and 2016, although its growth slowed down to 7.2 percent during the review period. Data from the National Statistics Institute show that the poverty headcount ratio fell from 70 to 46 percent between 1996 and 2014. However, rapid economic growth did not translate to inclusive growth as the Gini coefficient rose to 0.47 in 2014, from 0.40 in 1996. The country’s reliance on capital intensive investments led to rapid economic growth but generated relatively few jobs and their ties to the rest of the economy are limited. Unemployment rate remained at 22.6 percent in 2012-2014. The country ranks low in Human Development Index: 180 out of 188 countries. Natural hazards hit the country frequently and hard, and are likely to worsen with climate change. ii. The government’s Action Plan to Reduce Poverty for 2011-2014 (Plano de Acção de Redução de Pobreza -PARP) sought to confront these problems and the WBG’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) addressed some of these challenges under the pillars of competitiveness and employment (Focus Area I), vulnerability and resilience (Focus Area II), and a foundation pillar, governance and public sector capacity (Focus Area III). The pillars were relevant to support the PARP. In April 2016, the government acknowledged to the IMF that it had borrowed an amount in excess of $1 billion in commercial terms during 2012-2015. The disclosure weakened investors’ confidence in the country’s macroeconomic stability, and contributed to further depreciating the metical. These two factors combined raised the country’s debt to GDP ratio from 60 percent in 2014 to 120 percent in 2016. iii. IEG rates the development outcome of the CPS FY12-FY16 as Moderately Satisfactory. The program achieved or mostly achieved its objectives in the regulatory environment, employment and growth in targeted areas of the tourism sector, in road infrastructure, water and sanitation, affordable telecommunications, education and skills of the work force, improved health services for the vulnerable, improved capacity of local administrations to manage public finances, better 1 In line with the CLR, the CLR Review covers the period FY 12-15 and is updated to reflect progress in FY 16. The new CPF was delayed due to the discovery of hidden sovereign debt in 2016 which had not been reported to the World Bank and IMF. CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Jorge Garcia-Garcia Albert Martinez Pablo Fajnzylber Consultant, IEGHE Consultant, IEGEC Manager, IEGEC Igor Artemiev Lourdes Pagaran Consultant, IEGHE Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group conservation of wildlife, and more transparency in extractive industries. The program had partial success in raising agricultural productivity. The program did not produce results in spatial planning, adaptation to climate change, electricity access, social protection, public financial management, and public service monitoring. iv. IEG assesses overall WBG performance as Fair. WBG selected objectives that supported the government’s development plan, but it could have been more focused to achieve greater impact. The results framework reflected the fragmentation of the program with 17 objectives and 30 outcome indicators. Some program objectives were associated with several interventions but the activities they supported were not directly related to the program’s objectives and the expected results. IFC interventions were not always part of the results matrix. As in previous CPS, the WBG did not undertake a performance learning review, which was a lost opportunity for mid-course corrections. According to the CLR, management should have assumed greater leadership role and engaged the development community and the government on substantive issues and paid more attention to the political economy context to prevent delays in project implementation. Compliance with Bank’s safeguards policies was generally satisfactory but there were some shortcomings. On fiduciary issues, there was an unusually high number of complaints in the education sector. Although none of the complaints were investigated, the high number of complaints indicate some underlying structural governance issues. v. IEG concurs with the CLR findings, lessons and recommendations: (a) the need for the Bank to assume strategic leadership on substantive issues with donor partners and government; and proactive management of the WBG program, including maintaining a stable international staff in the field; (b) consolidation and better integration of Bank’s portfolio for greater impact; and (c) strengthening the Bank’s political economy and institutional assessments to inform project design and implementation, and aligning Bank’s program ambition with the country’s implementation capacity. vi. IEG adds the following lessons: (a) With limited program envelope and implementation capacity constraints at the country level, the Bank could focus more on limited and strategic interventions, building on its comparative advantage and ensuring sustained management attention and engagement during program implementation; (b) Better alignment of program interventions with program objectives are critical to enhance program effectiveness and impact. Hence, there is need for greater selectivity in the choice of interventions to achieve results. In the case of Mozambique, some objectives have multiple interventions that did not directly contribute to program objectives and outcomes; (c) IFC’s contributions and alignment to the WBG program would need to be better articulated and reflected in the program results framework. 4. Strategic Focus Overview of CAS/CPS Relevance: Relevance of the Country Partnership Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The government’s Action Plan to Reduce Poverty (Plano de Acção de Redução de Pobreza -PARP) had three general objectives and two supporting pillars. General objectives were to boost production and productivity in agriculture and fisheries, promote employment, and human and social development. Supporting pillars were good governance and macroeconomic stability. The CPS addressed some of these challenges under the pillars of competitiveness and employment, vulnerability and resilience, and the foundation pillar governance and public sector capacity. The pillars were relevant to support the PARP. 2. Since 1992, when the civil war ended, Mozambique grew at 8.0 percent per year until 2016. GNI per capita almost tripled to $1,120 in 2014. Growth led to reduction in poverty: poverty headcount ratio dropped from 70 percent in 1996 to 46 percent in 2014. In urban areas poverty fell from 62 to 37 percent and in rural areas from 72 to 50 percent. Rapid growth has increased access to basic services (primary schooling, safe water, sanitation, electricity). However, rapid growth was For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group accompanied by a growing disparity in the distribution of consumption, as the Gini coefficient for consumption rose to 0.47 in 2014 from 0.40 in 1996. The country’s reliance on capital intensive investments accounted for a larger share of overall growth, but they generate relatively few jobs and their ties to the rest of the economy are limited. Unemployment rates remained at 22.6 percent during 2012-2015. To diversify, the country needs to improve the regulatory climate, physical infrastructure, and rely on private sector development. 3. Mozambique’s socioeconomic indicators have improved since 1992, but their numbers still reflect substantial problems. Maternal mortality is around 500 per 100,000 births, and infant and child mortality (under 5) are 57 and 79 per 1000 births. The enrolment rate in primary schools reached 79 percent in 2014 and literacy rates for men and women aged 15-24 reached 80 and 57 percent as of 2009 (WDI data). The country ranks low in Human Development Index (180 out 188 countries). Natural hazards hit the country frequently, cost large sums of money (estimates are of $400 million per year), and are likely to worsen with climate change. 4. In April 2016, the government acknowledged to the IMF that it had borrowed an amount in excess of $1 billion in commercial terms during 2012-2015. The disclosure weakened investors’ confidence in the country’s macroeconomic stability, and contributed to further depreciating the metical. These two factors combined raised the country’s debt to GDP ratio from 60 percent in 2014 to 120 percent in 2016. 5. Relevance of Design. The three focus areas were supported by interventions that were appropriate to achieve the strategy’s objectives in most cases, but with some shortcomings. Some of the program interventions supported activities that were not directly linked to program objectives. The program was fragmented and dispersed and did not consider the limited capacity of government entities to implement the program. The strategy could have articulated better how the interventions beyond those specific to agriculture would benefit people living in rural areas, where most of the poor live. The review also notes the relatively low relevance of some interventions including the spatial development planning project, a complex program for a country with serious constraints in its executing capacity. Selectivity 6. Most of the program focused on seeking solutions to relevant problems, concentrating its financial support for activities in infrastructure and human capital, where Mozambique faces serious problems. The objectives selected were based on adequate country diagnostics (AAA and TA). The program objectives were consistent with the Bank’s comparative advantage, but its results could have been enhanced if the program had been less fragmented, with fewer but more focused results. The program design could have benefitted from a closer cooperation between the WB and IFC to exploit better the synergies of that cooperation. Alignment 7. The CPS was designed prior to the adoption of the corporate twin goals of reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity. The program supported interventions in health and education, basic infrastructure (water, sanitation, electricity), and roads that could reduce transport costs and bring better prices to farmers and people living in rural areas. The interventions in governance, vulnerability, and resilience, sustainability of natural resources and wildlife and the transparency in the use of government resources, could contribute to the twin goals. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 8. The WBG did not undertake a Performance and Learning Review. In line with the shared approach, the assessment of the program’s development outcome will be based on the original program results of the CPS. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group Focus Area I (CPS Pillar I): Competitiveness and Employment. 9. Objective 1. Improved regulatory environment in targeted areas. This objective was supported by a Competitiveness and PSD credit (FY09), a financial sector TA, PRSCs 8-10, an IFC investment climate project, and IFC advisory activities to build capacity of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) and improve their access to finance. Two indicators measured the achievement of the objective:  Number of days to issue industrial and commercial licenses. For industrial licenses the time fell from 32 days in 2010 to 13 days in November 2014, and for commercial licenses it fell from 22 days in 2010 to 7 days in May 2015. The reductions exceed the 50 percent decline expected for each type of license [Achieved].  Number of days to clear imports and exports. For imports the number of days to clear customs fell from 32 to 25; for exports the time fell from 26 to 21 days. The reductions fell short of the target values, 16 days for imports and 13 days for exports [partially achieved]. The indicators, though important, only measured part of the effort required to complete the tasks needed to register a business and clear customs. Other indicators on the regulatory environment suggest that starting a business still faces many hurdles. According to the Doing Business report for 2016 the time to register a business remains unchanged at 19 days since 2011. Achieving some results could come from better administration in customs and the agencies issuing licenses, from better regulations that dismantle processes and streamline the licensing and customs system, or a combination of the two. The CLR does not explain and articulate the links between the interventions and the improvements under these two indicators. The review concludes the objective was mostly achieved. 10. Objective 2. Improved management of development process through spatial planning. The objective was supported by the Integrated Growth Pole (FY13), a Mining and Gas project (FY13), and two pieces of ESW: Growth Identification Note, and Infrastructure through Spatial Lens. Two output indicators would measure the achievement of this objective: number of spatial development projects adopted for their feasibility by government, private sector, and PPP, and number of projects identified with high employment potential for each spatial development initiative. The target indicators were not achieved due to the slow start of the Integrated Growth Pole project. The review concludes the objective was not achieved. 11. Objective 3. Increased crop yields and overall productivity in target areas. The objective was supported by two irrigation projects (FY06, FY11), two development policy operations for agriculture (DPO 1/FY13 and 2/ FY14) in agriculture, a policy note for an agriculture strategy, and two IFC investment (Pulp and paper and wheat and maize miller) and advisory activities on insurance. The expected results were:  Higher yields (tons per hectare, ton/ha) of potatoes and tomatoes. The higher yields would result, presumably, from the irrigation projects. Since the information on yields between the CPS and the CLR is not consistent, this review uses the information from the CPS for baseline values and targets, and the information from the CLR and ISRs/ICRs for actual results. The expected outcomes were yields of 23 tons/ha for tomato and of 18 tons/ha for potato. The CLR reports yields of 16 tons for tomatoes and 18 tons for potato [ mostly achieved].  Eight thousand (8,000) smallholders with access to finance by 2015. The CLR does not report from which project to expect this result. Again, the CPS and the CLR differ in the indicators: CPS: 8000 small holders with access to farmer credit, of which 33 percent are women; CLR: beneficiary subprojects approved for grant. In total, 1626 beneficiary subprojects were approved for grant, but the total number of farmers is not provided [ partially achieved]. A variety of Bank and IFC activities supported this objective, but some activities have no direct relation with both the objective and the results indicators. For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group The review concludes the objective was partially achieved. 12. Objective 4. Increased employment and growth in targeted areas of the tourism sector. This objective was supported by two completed projects (Trans frontier Conservation Areas & Tourism Development -FY06- and a Competitiveness and PSD -FY09), a technical assistance to reform the fisheries sector, and an IFC Tourism Anchor Program. The expected results were to:  Increase the number of local people employed in tourism and targeted areas from 1,300 in 2010 to 2,800 by 2015. The CLR reports that 2,027 local people were employed in June 2014. [Achieved]  Increase the number of bed-nights in tourism facilities from 164,000 in 2010 to 240,000 by 2015. The CLR reports that the number of bed-nights increased to 196,000. [ Mostly Achieved] Two comments on the indicators. First, the economy grew when the projects were active, hence the increase in employment could not be fully attributed to the projects. Second, employment in the tourism sector depends on the demand for accommodation services; thus, the two indicators are overlapping and using the two overlapping indicators counts project benefits twice. The review concludes the objective was mostly achieved. 13. Objective 5. Improved provision and management of road infrastructure . The objective was supported by one Road and Bridge APL project (FY07, FY11 additional financing), a Roads and Bridges Management and Maintenance III (FY13), one TA project for spatial development planning (FY11), the Integrated Growth Poles project (FY13), and an ESW on infrastructure through spatial lens. The expected results were:  Share of total roads classified in good and fair condition increases from 75 percent in 2010 to 78 percent in 2012. The target date is an odd one, since it is set at the start of the CPS. The CLR revised the indicator but there is no CPS progress report to support the change. The CLR reports the share of roads in good and fair condition reached 68 percent in December 2015. Due to bad weather (cyclones and flooding) that occurred between 2012 and 2015, the percentage of roads in good and fair condition never reached the target of 78 percent set in the CPS. [Not achieved].  Share of rural population with access to an all-season road increases from 31.8 percent in 2010 to 32.3 percent in 2012. The share of the population with access to all season roads had increased to 34.2 percent as of December 2014. [achieved]  Number of people in Maputo municipality with access to all-seasons road increases from 60,000 tin 2010 to 300,000 in 2015.The CLR reports the target was exceeded in December 2014, with more than 400,000 people with access to all-seasons road [ achieved]. The review concludes the objective was mostly achieved. 14. Objective 6. Improved provision of water and sanitation service. This objective was supported by two water projects in the Maputo area (FY11, FY14), one institutional support project (FY08), and one National Water Resources Project (FY12). IFC started a PPP in FY 13 aimed at evaluating options for attracting private sector participation to the water sector in Maputo. The expected results were:  In 2015, about 290,000 people would have access to improved water sources. The CLR reports 795,000 people in urban areas gained access to improved water sources. However, the CLR does not explain why there is such large discrepancy between actual and target results. [achieved].  In 2015, the number of people in Maputo municipality with access to solid waste collection reaches 1.04 million, up from 729,000 in 2010. The CLR reports that by June 2015 about 1.13 million people in Maputo had access to regular solid waste collection. [achieved]. The review concludes the objective was achieved. For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group 15. Objective 7. Improved access to electricity. Two projects, the Transmission Upgrade (FY08) and the Energy Development and Access APL2 (FY10), supported this objective. The Bank expected that about 67,500 people and 400 rural schools and 400 health clinics would have access to electricity by 2015. The objective was not achieved because there were substantial delays in implementing the project. [Not achieved]. 16. Objective 8. Improved access to affordable communications. This project was supported by the regional e-government and communications infrastructure (FY09). The target was to promote access to internet services and reduce their cost. The Bank supported to enlarge the number of telecom operators from two to three. One of them, MOVITEL, rolled out extensive fixed and mobile network facilities, leading to more competition and to lower costs for the services, from $33 per 3Mbps/month in 2010 to $17 per 3Mbps/month in December 2014. The CLR does not report on prices during 2015, but the tariff in 2014 is lower than the expected one of $30 per 1Mbps per month set in the CPS [achieved]. The review concludes the objective was achieved. 17. Objective 9. Better educated and skilled labor force. Four projects supported this objective. Two projects support technical and vocational education (FY06, FY12), one project supports the education sector (FY11), and one project supports higher education science and technology (FY10). The support from ESW is unclear. The CLR lists an ESW on Healthcare Financing Analysis (FY13) as supporting education, but does not explain the link of health to education. The achievement of this objective was to be measured by the following indicators:  Improve employment prospects of students in vocational programs. The target was to have 60 percent of graduates employed in related fields within six months of graduation by 2015. The actual number was 57 percent [mostly achieved].  Raise to 90 percent the share of students moving from primary to post-primary in 2015.The transition rate reached 92 percent in 2014, from 79 percent in 2010. World Development Indicators (WDI) data show the effective transition rates from primary to lower secondary at 62 percent in 2013. The CLR reports that primary completion rate has stagnated but does not provide numbers; ensuring that students complete their primary education is more important than ensuring that the few students who complete it move to post-primary education. This indicator is inadequate to gauge the progress in education, and hides the problem of low graduation rates in primary and lower secondary education, at 48 and 22 percent in 2014 per WDI data. The review concludes that although the indicator was achieved, it is not sufficient to measure the program objectives and the link between this indicator and the objective is weak. [achieved].  Raise by 30 percent -from 7,000 to 9,100- the number of students graduating from higher education institutions. The CLR reports the number of graduates in 2014 reached 10,929, surpassing its target. [achieved]. The review concludes the objective was mostly achieved. IEG rates Focus Area I as moderately satisfactory. The program achieved or partially achieved seven of its nine objectives. It achieved or mostly achieved its objectives of improving the regulatory environment, increasing employment and growth in targeted areas of the tourist sector, improving provision of management and road infrastructure, improving access to water and sanitation services, improving access to affordable telecommunications, having a better educated and skilled workforce. The program partially achieved its objective of increasing crop yields and overall productivity in targeted areas, but did not achieve its objective of improving management of the development process through spatial planning. Focus Area II (CPS Pillar II): Vulnerability and Resilience 18. Objective 10. Improved health services for the vulnerable . The objective was supported by one ESW (FY13), one impact evaluation study (FY12) and three projects. Only two projects were active during the CPS period: Health services FY09 and Commodity Security FY11; the nutrition For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group project (FY13) started later than planned. Earlier ESW informed the design of the Health project (FY09), but the CLR did not report on how the ESW on Health Care Financing (FY13) and the impact evaluation study were used. The achievement of this objective was to be measured by three indicators:  Raise institutional deliveries (child delivered in some medical facility). The target was to increase to 72 percent the share of institutional deliveries in three Northern provinces (Niassa, Nampula, and Cabo Delgado) in 2015. The implementation status report of the health project (ISR #16) reports that institutional deliveries reached 84 percent in Nampula and 78 percent in Cabo Delgado, exceeding the 72 percent target; the ISR does not report on Niassa [ mostly achieved].  Provide antiretroviral treatment (ART). The target was to provide with ART close to 410,000 adults and children in 2015. The actual number treated was close to 586,000 persons by December 2014, exceeding the target ( achieved).  Improve diet of children aged 6-23. The program did not start on time and did not deliver on expected results due to delays in implementing the nutrition project [ not achieved]. On balance, the review concludes the objective was mostly achieved. 19. Objective 11. Adaptation to climate change and reduced risk of natural disasters. The objective was supported by a Water Resources Development Project (FY12), a coastal cities and climate change project (FY12), an Emergency Resilient Recovery Project (FY2016), an IFC umbrella program for Africa called Building Africa’s Resilience to Climate Change (BAREC), and grants for (a) disaster risk management (FY11),(b) supporting a pilot program on climate resilience and hydro meteorological services (FY13), (c) reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD, FY12), and (d) technical assistance of the global facility for disaster reduction and recovery. There was only one indicator to measure the achievement of this objective. The expected result was to have an accurate weather information system available to stakeholders in 70 percent of the central and southern regions by 2015. The US$15 million trust fund grant for climate resilience supported the installation and calibration of some weather radars in the south and central regions but are not fully functional. The Bank also supported several activities that went beyond meteorological stations. The single indicator does not seem to sufficiently measure the two dimensions of the program objective of adaptation and risk reduction. Given that several WBG interventions supported this program objective, it would have been useful to provide both process/output and outcome indicators to measure progress against the two dimensions of this objective The review concludes the objective was not achieved. 20. Objective 12. Strengthened social protection. The program sought to reduce the vulnerability of the population to, among others, variations in climate, commodity prices, and agricultural productivity. This objective was supported by a Pilot Public Works Program (FY11), a Social Protection Project (FY13), and an ESW on Social Protection Assessment (FY13). About 23,000 of the 100,000 expected beneficiaries had been reached as of August 2016. The CPS target was to reach of 815,000 vulnerable people from the social safety program. The CLR provided additional information and notes progress towards establishing a unified targeting approaches across core social safety net programs, and single registry of social security beneficiaries. However, since there was no PLR, the original indicator at the CPS stage is the basis for measuring the success of the program which rests on reaching its target population, which has not yet materialized. The review concludes the objective was not achieved. 21. IEG rates Focus Area II as unsatisfactory. The program had one notable achievement in improving health services for the vulnerable, but did not achieve its objectives in helping to strengthen social protection, adapt to climate change and reduce the risk of natural disasters. Focus Area III (CPS Foundation Pillar): Governance and Public Sector Capacity 22. Objective 13. Improved public financial management. The objective was supported by a National Decentralized Planning project (FY13), a grant for a Public Financial Management program For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group for results (PforR), and two pieces of AAA, including a Public Expenditure Review (PER, FY15). Achieving this objective would be measured by (a) three indicators of the public expenditure and financial accountability program (PEFA) improve from C to B; and (b) at least 65 percent of state investment expenditure subject to competitive bidding in 2015. The improvements in the PEFA indicators, which referred to composition of spending, external audit, and multiannual fiscal planning for spending and budget policies, were not achieved. The 2015 PEFA assessment shows that all three PEFA indicators were unchanged (at C). The second indicator was dropped. [ not achieved]. The review concludes the objective was not achieved. 23. Objective 14. Improved capacity of local administration to manage public finances. The objective was supported by the National Decentralized Planning project (FY10), a public financial management program for results (FY13), and a FY14 technical assistance from the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility to enhance financial management practices in municipalities. The TA sought to assist four municipalities with the greatest potential for raising revenue among the 20 selected cities that make part of a component in the Cities and Climate Change Project. The expected result was to have by June 2015 at least 110 districts executing more than 90 percent of their budget and operational plans. The CLR, and the ICR and ISR#10 report for the National Decentralized Planning project indicate that the target was achieved [achieved]. The review concludes the objective was achieved. 24. Objective 15. Improved citizen participation in public service monitoring . The objective was supported by the Maputo Municipal Development Project (FY11) and a Public Financial Management PforR (FY13). The indicator was to maintain the mean user’s perception of the quality of public services in Maputo at 2.8 from 2011 to 2013 and to reach 3.0 in 2015 as reported in the Citizen Report Card. The most recent ISR for the Maputo project (Sequence 13, December 8, 2016) notes that the indicator is at 2.7 from a target of 3.0. The which suggests that people’s perception on the quality of municipal services fell since then. [not achieved]. The review concludes the objective was not achieved. 25. Objective 16. Greater contribution of wildlife conservation to economy. The objective was supported by two projects: The Trans-Frontier Conservation Area and Tourism Project I (FY06) and the South West Indian Fisheries Project (FY14), two GEF grants and one grant for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The CLR reports the following increase in species between 2006 and 2012:  Maputo Special Reserve. Elephants 197 percent, and zebra 93 percent;  Zinave National Park. Impala 204 percent, and nyala 81 percent;  Banhine National Park. Oribi 682 percent, and ostrich 150 percent; and  Chimanimani Reserve. Dulker 186 percent, and sable 250 percent. The indicators cover the period 2006-2012, not the 2011-2015 period established in the CPS. An IEG review of the ICR for the Trans-Frontier Conservation Area and Tourism project concluded that the improved wildlife counts reflected improved control over poaching as patrols had become more formal and frequent, and had perhaps also led to modifications in community hunting behavior [achieved]. The review concludes the objective was achieved. 26. Objective 17. Improved transparency in extractive industries. The objective was supported by: (a) four grants to help Mozambique become member and comply with the extractive industries transparency initiative (EITI); (b) a gas and mining TA project (FY13) (FY14); and (c) AAA that provides technical assistance on mining sector governance and on the extractive industry value chain (EI Value Chain TA). With the support provided, it was expected that Mozambique would achieve and maintain EITI compliant status from the International EITI Board. Since 2013 Mozambique is EITI compliant and issues annual reports. The fifth report was issued under EITI standard, and the First Annual Implementation Report for Mozambique EITI was published in early 2015. [achieved] For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group The review concludes the objective was achieved. 27. IEG rates Focus Area III as moderately satisfactory. Achievements were noted in three objectives including improved transparency in extractive industries, greater contribution of wildlife conservation to the economy, and improved capacity of local administrations to manage public finance. The program did not achieve two of its objectives of improving citizen participation in public service monitoring and improving public financial management. Overall Assessment and Rating 28. IEG rates the development outcome as moderately satisfactory. The program achieved or mostly achieved 10 of the 17 objectives in the regulatory environment, employment and growth in targeted areas of the tourism sector, in road infrastructure, water and sanitation, access to electricity, affordable telecommunications, education and skills of the work force, improved health services for the vulnerable, improved capacity of local administrations to manage public finances, better conservation of wildlife, and more transparency in extractive industries. The program had partial success in raising agricultural productivity, but did not achieve its objectives in spatial planning, electricity access, adaptation to climate change, social protection, public financial management, and public service monitoring. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating I. Competitiveness and Employment Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Objective 1: Improved regulatory environment in targeted Mostly achieved Mostly achieved areas Objective 2: Improved management of development process Partially achieved Not achieved through spatial planning Objective 3: Increased crop yields and overall productivity in Partially achieved Partially achieved target areas Objective 4: Increased employment and growth in targeted Mostly achieved Mostly achieved areas of the tourism sector Objective 5: Improved provision and management of road Achieved Mostly achieved infrastructure Objective 6: Improved provision of water and sanitation Achieved Achieved service Objective 7: Improved access to electricity Not achieved Not achieved Objective 8: Improved access to affordable communications Achieved Achieved Objective 9: Better educated and skilled labor force Mostly achieved Mostly achieved Moderately II. Vulnerability and Resilience Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory Objective 10: Improved health services for the vulnerable Mostly achieved Mostly achieved Objective 11: Adaptation to climate change and reduce risk Partially achieved Not achieved of natural disasters Objective 12: Strengthened social protection Partially achieved Not achieved III. Governance and Public Sector Capacity Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Objective 13: Improved public financial management Not Achieved Not achieved Objective 14: Improved capacity of local administration to Achieved Achieved manage public finances Objective 15: Improved citizen participation in public service Mostly Achieved Not achieved monitoring Objective 16: Greater contribution of wildlife conservation to Achieved Achieved economy Objective 17: Improved transparency in extractive industries Achieved Achieved For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 29. Forty-three credits for $2,457 million were active during the program period (FY12-FY15). Of those, 20 credits for $940 million corresponded to projects active when the CPS was approved, and 23 credits for $1,517 million during the CAS period. Of the 24 planned credits, 17 were approved. More than $1 billion financed infrastructure works (roads, energy, water). About $400 million went to the social sectors (education and health), $330 million (budget support through PRSCs), climate change and biodiversity ($210 million), governance and subnational government ($130 million), and private sector development, financial sector, PforR ($267 million). Mozambique also benefited from 45 trust funds, for $322 million. 30. Mozambique has better project outcome ratings at exit than AFR and the Bank when measured by number of projects but poorer performance when measured by value. Twelve projects that closed during the period were validated by IEG; 10 were rated satisfactory or moderately satisfactory, and 2 were rated unsatisfactory or moderately unsatisfactory. Of the active projects 30 were rated satisfactory or moderately satisfactory, and two moderately unsatisfactory. 31. During the review period, IFC committed $132 million long term investments, and extended to a Mozambican bank a line of short-term revolving trade guarantees under the Global Trade Finance Program (GTFP). Of the total long-term investment, manufacturing accounted for 36 and agribusiness and forestry for 60 percent. Investment in an iron-ore exploration project accounts for the remaining four percent. Of the new committed investments, 30 percent was equity and 70 percent was loans, and 62 percent of them went to greenfield projects. The milling project has been rated Mostly Successful in the development outcomes tracking system (DOTS). The remaining 11 projects has been rated “Too Early to Tell”, including an iron ore exploration project initiated in FY09. 32. MIGA granted one new guarantee to a South African power producer for $115 million, to cover investments in a natural gas-fired power plant with a Mozambican producer. Also, it maintained as active the status of guarantees for $100 million for 3 projects that had been initiated before FY12 and that were still in effect (i.e., active); the three projects were a sugar plantation, a woodchip plant, and a high voltage power line. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 33. During the review period, the Bank’s analytical and advisory work (AAA) consisted of 31 pieces, of which 8 were economic and sector work (ESW) and 23 were technical assistance. The eight ESW pieces consisted of policy notes for the new government, of which five emphasized governance and fiscal policy, and two others covered cultural heritage and tourism and financial sector development. The TA covered many areas: disaster risk management, monitoring resistance to insecticide in malaria control, governance and public financial management, value chains, social protection, education, mining and gas, EITI, water and sanitation, among others. 34. IFC had 14 active country-specific advisory projects, of which six were already active in FY12. Of the 14 projects, five were closed with successful outcomes, two were put on hold, and seven were dropped or terminated. In addition, IFC had three regional programs in Africa that covered Mozambique but information on the amount allocated for Mozambique is not available. The project SME Management Solutions Africa was closed with unsuccessful development outcomes. The review could not confirm progress for the regional BAREC climate resilience program. The Sub-Sahara Africa Index Insurance program is building on the country-specific index-based weather and catastrophe insurance program for food and drought mentioned earlier; IEG validated this project and rated it mostly successful. Results Framework 35. The results framework contained elements of a good framework. Broadly, it provides a logical chain: its objectives supported the achievement of the country’s development goals by addressing critical constraints. It also established a link between objectives, Bank interventions, and results For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group indicators, most of them related to outcomes that could be associated with Bank interventions (but fewer to IFC interventions). Program indicators generally have baselines and targets, and the outcome indicators were generally appropriate to judge achievement of objectives, with some shortcomings. In several cases, outcome indicators did not sufficiently measure the program objectives or only part of the program objectives; or could not be fully attributable to the Bank’s interventions. This is the case for objectives 1, 4, 9, 11, 15. Some objectives have multiple WBG interventions but the activities supported are not directly linked to the program objectives (For example, Objectives 3 and 11). Finally, IFC contributions were not always part of the results matrix. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 36. The WBG worked closely with other development partners, leveraging IDA resources. The Bank coordinated its budget support operations (PRSCs) with other donors (G19), and convening a dialogue between donors and government. The Bank co-chaired with the UN a Development Partners Group which discusses policy issues and coordinates donor programs and project activities. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 37. Compliance with Bank safeguard policies was generally satisfactory on the 11 investment projects that were closed and validated by IEG during the review period. The projects’ ICRRs reported that the Bank adequately carried the due diligence requirements to ensure the social and environmental soundness of the operations. However, some shortcomings were noted including: missing details on implementation status of the environment and social frameworks by project closure, and the provision of insufficient evidence to fully validate social and environmental safeguards compliance (especially in the case of Education, Water, Agriculture, Urban Development and Trade and Competitiveness). In addition, ICR reviews noted inadequate application of the policy requirements for some of the triggered safeguards, and the Bank missed the opportunities to enforce best-practice standards. In other cases, mitigation challenges were raised and safeguards compliance was rated satisfactory with no reference of how the issues were resolved (mainly in Trade and Competitiveness). 38. On fiduciary issues, the Vice Presidency for Institutional Integrity (INT) received an unusually high number of complaints in the Education Sector projects in Mozambique during the CAS review period. The complaints related to a wide range of issues from procurement, financial management (FM) to embezzlement. None of the complaints were concrete enough to warrant an investigation, however the high number of complaints in this one sector does indicate that some underlying structural governance issues need to be addressed. Ownership and Flexibility 39. The program covered areas identified in the government’s poverty reduction program, and the authorities maintained their commitment to its program and to the strategy agreed with the Bank. For the second time, the WBG did not undertake a Performance Learning Review which was a missed opportunity to revisit the original CPS and its underlying assumptions to adapt to the changing country context. WBG Internal Cooperation 40. The Bank and IFC prepared a joint CPS with their programs seeking to complement each other’s activities. The joint efforts were reflected in Pillars I and II. In Pillar I, WBG cooperated on the regulatory environment which touched on matters of investment climate, capacity building and access to credit for small and medium enterprises (Objective 1), and tourism (Objective 4). The CLR does not report separately on IFC but refers to its interventions when discussing achievement of objectives. IFC interventions were not always part of the results matrix. Risk Identification and Mitigation 41. The CPS identified the following risks for the program: reduced donor aid, elevated social tensions, especially among urban unemployed youth, macroeconomic shocks and their impact on the Government’s reform program, and weak government capacity to coordinate and implement cross For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group sectoral reforms and operations and to manage the extractive industry sector, including private sector participation. The CLR reports that all the risks materialized and the Bank’s response was generally effective. The CLR does not report on what the Bank did to mitigate the risks, except for the impact of floods in early 2014, where the Bank provided emergency financing from the crisis response window. Overall Assessment and Rating 42. IEG assesses overall WBG performance as fair. On design, the WBG selected objectives that supported the government’s development plan, and it chose appropriate interventions to deliver the program and achieve the objectives in most instances. Although most of the objectives had substantial relevance, it could have been more focused for greater impact. Moreover, some program objectives were associated with several interventions but the activities they supported were not directly related to the program’s objectives and the expected results. The results framework had the elements of a good framework: broadly, there was a clear link between objectives, Bank interventions, and results indicators related to outcomes associated with the interventions. But it had shortcomings: the results matrix was fragmented with 17 objectives and 30 outcome indicators, some indicators do not sufficiently measure achievement of the program objectives, and IFC interventions were not always part of the results matrix. 43. On implementation, the WBG increased its reliance on the country’s financial management systems: now state and municipal budgets include Bank funds and the Administrative Tribunal (Tribunal Administrativo) can audit Bank-financed projects. The CPS identified the risks to the program and the CLR reports that all of them materialized. In the case of reduced donor aid and negative external shocks, the Bank stepped up its financial support with additional $477 million in credits. As in previous CPS, the WBG did not undertake a performance learning review, which was a missed opportunity for mid-course corrections. According to the CLR, management could have assumed greater leadership roles and engaged more with development partners and senior government officials on substantive issues, and paid more attention to maintaining the local office with sufficient international staff, and monitoring the local and institutional context to prevent delays in project implementation. On safeguards, compliance with Bank safeguards policies was generally satisfactory but there were some shortcomings. On fiduciary issues, there was an unusually high number of complaints in the education sector. Although none of the complaints were investigated, the high number of complaints indicate some underlying structural governance issues. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 44. The CLR follows the CPS results framework, presents evidence listed in the results matrix, and introduces additional results indicators. The CLR is candid and assesses reasonably well the design and implementation of the program, but could have analyzed in more depth the quality of the results chain. The CLR does not explain how the WBG dealt with safeguards and fiduciary issues. Its review of IFC’s portfolio is meager, at best, overlooking several mining projects, and some of the discussion seems to be misplaced (e.g., manufacturing industries in the agriculture section). For instance, it could have highlighted IFC’s closer cooperation with the World Bank and other development partners in agriculture and forestry. In summary, the CLR describes well the program and its implementation performance, but in some instances its assessment of results is overly optimistic. 8. Findings and Lessons 45. IEG concurs with the CLR findings, lessons and recommendations: (i) the need for the Bank to assume strategic leadership on substantive issues with donor partners and government; and proactive management of the WBG program, including maintaining stable international staff in the field; (ii) consolidation and better integration of Bank’s portfolio for greater impact; and (iii) strengthening the Bank’s political economy and institutional assessments to inform project design and implementation, and aligning Bank’s program ambition with the country’s implementation capacity. For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group 46. IEG adds the following lessons:  With limited program envelope and implementation capacity constraints at the country level, the Bank could focus more on limited and strategic interventions, building on its comparative advantage and ensuring sustained management attention and engagement during program implementation.  Better alignment of program interventions with program objectives are critical to enhance program effectiveness and impact. In the case of Mozambique, some objectives have multiple interventions that did not directly contribute to program objectives and outcomes. Hence there is need for greater selectivity in the choice of interventions to achieve results.  IFC’s contributions including alignment to the WBG program and would need to be better articulated and reflected in the program results framework. Annexes CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives Annex Table 2: Mozambique Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-16 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Mozambique, FY12 - FY16 Annex Table 4: Mozambique Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-15 ($M) Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Mozambique, FY12-FY16 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Mozambique and Comparators, FY12-FY16 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Mozambique and Comparators, FY12-16 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Mozambique, FY12-16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Mozambique, FY12-15 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Mozambique Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Mozambique, 2012 – 2015 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Mozambique - Investments Committed in FY12- FY16 Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services for Mozambique Annex Table 14: IFC Net Commitment Activity for Mozambique Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Mozambique Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results Competitiveness and IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Employment 1. CPS Objective: Improved regulatory environment in targeted areas (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: Number of days to Commercial Licenses Source: CLR and Competitiveness issue industrial and commercial The baseline in 2010 was 22 days; actual and Private Sector Development licenses reduced by 30 percent as of May 2015 is 7 days, equivalent to a (P106355), Approved FY09, IEG: S from 2010 to 2013, 50% to 2015 68% reduction. Baselines were provided ex post at Baseline: No (2012) Industrial Licenses the CLR stage. Target: Yes (2015) The baseline in 2010 was 32 days; actual as of May 2015 is 13 days, equivalent to a 59% reduction. Achieved Indicator: Number of days to Imports Source: CLR and P106355 ISR clear imports and exports As of May 2015, the number of days to Sequence 12 (June 2015). Baseline: Imports = 32 (2009); import had been reduced from 32 to 25 Competitiveness and Private exports = 26 (2009) (reduction of 22% - achieving approx. Sector Development (P106355). Target: Imports = 16 (2009); 44% of target of 16 days). Approved FY09. Management exports = 13 (2009) Exports assessment: S As of May 2015, the number of days to export reduced from 26 to 21 (reduction of approx. 20% - achieving 38% of target). Partially achieved Major 2. CPS Objective: Improved management of development process through spatial planning (Not Achieved) Outcome Indicator: Number of Spatial The CPS proposed indicators were not Source: CLR, ISR Measures Development Initiatives (SDIs) achieved owing to delays in the Spatial Development Planning adopted for feasibility by implementation of the Spatial Technical Assistance Project government, private sector, and/or Development Planning TA Project (P121398). Approved FY11. PPPs (FY11). As of June 2015, only one SDI Management Assessment: MU Baseline: 0 (2010) for Maputo had been completed and In lieu of the program indicators, Target: 20 (2015) approved. the CLR proposed to use as Indicator: Number of projects Not achieved indicator the “establishment of a identified with high employment national spatial planning platform generation for youth and women providing inter-agency and cross- per each spatial development sectoral coverage” initiative Baseline: No (2010) Baseline: 0 (2010) Target: Yes (2015) Target: 20 (2015) Because the indicator was achieved, the CLR rates the achievement of the objective as “partially achieved”. IEG rates achievement based on the program indicators. For this objective, the program indicator was not achieved. 3. CPS Objective: Increase crop yields and overall productivity in target areas (Partially Achieved) Indicator: Number of tons of (i) Progress towards this target was Source: CLR, ISR#8 potatoes and (ii) tomatoes per supported through the Market led hectare Smallholder Development in the Zambezi Annexes CLR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results Competitiveness and IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Employment Baseline: (i) 10 (2010); (ii) 18 Valley (P093165) (IEG: MS) and (2010) PROIRRI Sustainable Irrigation Target: (i) 15 (2015); (ii) 23 Development (P107598) (Management (2015) assessment: MS). (i) October 2015: 18 tons of potatoes per hectare (P107598 ISR Sequence 8). (ii) October 2015: 16 tons of tomatoes per hectare (P107598 ISR Sequence 8). Mostly Achieved Indicator: Number of additional Progress towards this target was Source: CLR ISR#8 smallholders with access to supported through PROIRRI Sustainable finance to help develop value Irrigation Development (P107598) chains (Management assessment: MS). Baseline: 0 (2011) As of October 2015, the number of Target: 8,000, of which 33% are beneficiaries’ subprojects approved women (2015) 2,210 (P107598 ISR Sequence 8). The management assessment is not clear with respect to the percentage of women within the approved subprojects. The CLR reports does not report on the gender dimension of the target either. Partially Achieved 4. CPS Objective: Increased employment and growth in targeted areas of the tourism sector (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: Number of local Progress towards this target was Source: CLR, ISR residents employed, formally and supported through the Transfrontier informally, in conservation and Conservation Areas and Tourism tourism in targeted districts Development Project (P071465) (IEG: Baseline: 1,300 in 2010 S). As of June 2014, the number of local Target: 2,800 by 2015 people employed, formally and informally, in conservation and tourism in targeted areas reached 2027 in June 2014. Employment in the tourism sector depends on the demand for accommodation services; therefore, only the number of bed-nights should be considered. Using the two indicators counts the same benefit twice and gives the false impression of the project having a larger impact than it does. For this reason, the CLR does not rate the achievement of this indicator. Achieved Indicator: Number of bed-nights Progress towards this target was Source: CLR, ISR in tourism facilities in the target supported through the Transfrontier districts Conservation Areas and Tourism Baseline: 164,000 in 2010 Development Project (P071465) (IEG: Target: 240,000 by 2015 S). As of June 2014, the number of bed- Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results Competitiveness and IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Employment nights in tourism facilities in the target districts was 196,000. Mostly Achieved 5. CPS Objective: Improved provision and management of road infrastructure (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: Share of total classified The share of total classified roads in good Source: CLR roads in good and fair condition and fair condition declined from 69.3% in The CPS lacked a CPSPR and, for Baseline: 69.3% (2012) 2012 to 68% in December 2015. The CLR this reason, the country team Target: 73% (2016) reports that bad weather (cyclones and missed the opportunity to update flooding) has generated a cycle of the results framework. The improved and deteriorated road baseline and target were updated conditions between 2012 and 2015, but at the CLR stage. The original the percentages of roads in good and fair baseline was 75% (2010) and the condition never reached the target of 78 original target 78% (2012). percent set for 2012. Mozambique -Roads and Bridges Not achieved Management and Maintenance Program - Phase II (P083325). Approved FY07. Management assessment: S Indicator: Share of rural As of December 2012, the share of the Source: CLR and P115217 ISR population with access (within population with access to all season Sequence 10 (June 2015). 2km) to an all-season road roads had increased to 32.7% and, as of Maputo Municipal Development Baseline: 31.8% (2010) December 2014, it had increased to Program II (MMDP II) (P115217). Target: 32.3% (2012) 34.2% (ISR Sequence 17). Approved FY11. Management Achieved assessment: MS Indicator: Number of people in The CLR reports that, by December Source: CLR and P115217 ISR Maputo municipality with access Sequence 10 (June 2015). 2014, a total number of 416,250 people (within 500 meters) to all-season in Maputo benefitted from all-season Maputo Municipal Development roads roads. Program II (MMDP II) (P115217). Baseline: 60,000 (2011) As of April 2015, a total number of Approved FY11. Management Target: 300,000 (2015) 588,975 people benefitted from all- assessment: MS season roads corresponding to the The CLR reported figures do not match the figures in the ISN rehabilitation of 157 km (ISN Sequence 10). Sequence 10 for the Maputo Achieved Municipal Development Program II (MMDP II) (P115217). This was the last ISN produced within the CPS period. 6. CPS Objective: Improved provision of water and sanitation service (Achieved) Indicator: Number of people in As of March 2015, 795,508 people in Source: CLR and P104566 IEG: S urban areas provided with access urban areas had been provided with Water Services and Institutional to improved Water Source under access to Improved Water Sources (out Support Project (P104566). the project of which 50% were women). Approved FY08. IEG: S Baseline: 192,443 (2011) Achieved Target: 292,118 (out of which 50% are women) (2015) Indicator: Number of people in During Maputo’s Municipal Development Source: CLR and P115217 ISR Maputo municipality with access Program, the number of people in urban Sequence 10 (June 2015). to regular solid waste collection areas provided with access to regular Maputo Municipal Development services solid waste collection increased from Program II (MMDP II) (P115217). Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results Competitiveness and IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Employment Baseline: 729,264 (2010) 729,264 in 2010 to 1,130,109 by June Approved FY11. Management Target: 1,041,545 (2015) 2015. assessment: MS Achieved 7. CPS Objective: Improved access to electricity (Not achieved) Indicator: Number of people in The CLR reports no progress to date Source: CLR and P108444 ISR peri-urban and rural areas with owing to delays in the implementation of Sequence 12 (December 2016). access to electricity. the Energy Development and Access Baseline: 42,500 household Project (APL-2) (P108444). The closing Energy Development and Access connections (2010) date was extended from June 2015 to Project (APL-2) (P108444). Target: 67,500 household June 2017. Management assessment: MS. connections (2015) Not achieved Indicator: Number of rural health The CLR reports no progress to date Source: CLR clinics and schools with access to owing to delays in the implementation of electricity. the Energy Development and Access Energy Development and Access Baseline: Rural health clinics: Project (APL-2) (P108444). The closing Project (APL-2) (P108444). 150 (2010); Rural schools: 150 date was extended from June 2015 to Approved FY10. Management (2010) June 2017) assessment: MS Target: Rural health clinics: 400 Not achieved 2017; Rural schools: 400 (2017) 8. CPS Objective: Improved access to affordable telecommunications (Achieved) Indicator: Price of broadband The CLR does not report on the originally Source: CLR, Regional e- Internet Access [1Mbps] proposed indicator as the indicator was government and communications Baseline: $90 (2010) revised ex post at the CLR stage. In lieu infrastructure (FY09) Target: $30 (2015) of the original indicator, the CLR reports The CPS lacked a CPSPR and, for that the average price for a monthly this reason, the country team 3Mbps 3G mobile data subscription fell missed the opportunity to revise from US$ 33.00 (December 2010) to indicators that were no longer US$ 17.00 (December 2014). appropriate. The indicator was The per Mbps drops as users subscribe revised at the CLR stage. to a larger plan. The cost per month for downloading and uploading 1Mbps Mbit/s is $18.2 for the larger subscription plans (8Mbit/s) Source: http://www.satproviders.com/en/list-of-all- services/MOZAMBIQUE Achieved 9. CPS Objective: Better educated and skilled workforce (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: Share of graduates of As of September 2015, 57% of the Source: CLR and P087347 IEG: targeted TVET programs that find graduates trained in the new methodology MS / create jobs in related fields within had found a job/created a job that was Technical and Vocational 6 months of graduation directly related to their field of study within Education and Training (P087347). Baseline: 27.2% (2007) 6 months from graduation. Approved FY06. IEG MS Target: 60% (2015) Mostly Achieved Indicator: Transition rate between As of November 2014, the transition rate Source: CLR and P125127 ISR higher primary level (EP2) and between EP2 and the next level post Sequence 8 (March 2015). next level post primary primary increased from 79% in 2010 to Baseline: 79% (2010) 92% in 2014. The indicator is irrelevant Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 1: Actual Results Competitiveness and IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Employment Target: 90% (2015) to judge program results in a country Education Sector Support Program where the primary completion rate is low (P125127). Approved FY11. and has remained unchanged for several Management assessment: MS years Achieved Indicator: Number of students The number of graduates from higher Source: CLR, ISR graduating from higher education education increased from 7000 in 2008 Higher Education Science and institutions to 10,929 in 2014. Technology (P111592). Approved Baseline: 7,000 (2010) Achieved FY10. Management assessment: S Target: 9,100 (2015) CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 2: Actual Results IEG Comments Vulnerability and Resilience (as of current month and year) 10. CPS Objective: Improved health services for the vulnerable (Mostly Achieved) Indicator: Share of institutional Overall Results Three Northern Source: CLR and P099930 – ISR deliveries in 3 Northern provinces Provinces Sequence 14 (April 2015) (Cabo Delgado, Nampula and As of December 2014, the percentage of Health Service Delivery (P099930). Niassa) increases from 62% in institutional deliveries was 81.2% Approved in FY09. Management 2010 to 72% in 2015 (P099930 – ISR Sequence 14 – April assessment: MS Baseline: 62% (2010) 2015). The ISR Sequence 13 (January Target: 72% in 2015 Cabo Delgado 2015) lacks information on the As of December 2014, the percentage of Niassa province. institutional deliveries was 76% (P099930 – ISR Sequence 14 – April 2015). Nampula As of December 2014, the percentage of institutional deliveries was 82% (P099930 – ISR Sequence 14 – April Major 2015). Outcome Niassa Measures No information. Mostly achieved Indicator: Number of adults and As of December 2014, 585,544 persons Source: CLR and P121060 ICRR. children with HIV receiving ARVs were on Anti-Retroviral treatment (ART). Health Commodity Security Project at the national level As of June 2014, 129,405 129,405 adults (P121060). Approved in FY11. Baseline: 257,410 (2011) and children living with HIV received IEG: MS Target: 409,537 (out of which ARVs (ICRR). The ISR and ICR do not The figures reported in the CLR 68% female) (2015) report on the percentage of women are different from the ones receiving ARVs. reported in the P121060 ISRs and Achieved ICR. Also, the CLR reporting lacks a breakdown by gender. Indicator: Children aged 6-23 The CLR reports that the roll out of the Source: CLR months who received a minimum Nutrition Additional Financing (P125477) Nutrition Additional Financing acceptable diet at the national has experienced delays and, for this (P125477). Approved FY13. level reason, the target has not been met. Baseline: 37% (2010) Not Achieved Target: 60% (2010) Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 2: Actual Results IEG Comments Vulnerability and Resilience (as of current month and year) 11. CPS Objective: Adaptation to climate change and reduced the risk of natural disasters (Not Achieved) Indicator: Accurate weather The CLR reports that weather radars Source: CLR information system available to covering part of the south and central stakeholders in 70% of Central region have been calibrated, thus Mozambique-Programmatic and Southern regions on at least allowing for more precise and immediate Support to Disaster Risk a 12-hour basis warnings of extreme events to be issued Management Phase I (P124755). Baseline: No (2012) by end 2013. The radars have been Approved FY11. Management Target: Yes (2015) acquired but are not fully functional. The assessment: Not available. technical assistance support and purchase of additional meteorological equipment is underway and outcomes should be achieved by December 2016 Not Achieved 12. CPS Objective: Strengthened social protection (Not Achieved) Indicator: Number of vulnerable The target included in the CPS results Source: CLR, ISR#6 (Sept. 2016) people benefiting from effective matrix related to the national program Preparation and Supervision of the social safety net program and, thus, it is well beyond what can be Pilot Public Works Program Baseline: 80,000 (2011) attributed to the Bank. (P124216). Approved FY12. Target: 815,000 (2015) The credit for social protection had Management assessment: Not disbursed $6.83 million by September available. 2016, and about 23 thousand of the 100 The CPS lacked a CPSPR and, for thousand beneficiaries had been this reason, the country team reached. missed the opportunity to revise Not Achieved indicators that were no longer appropriate. Two new indicator were proposed at the CLR stage. They were: (i) Targeting approaches across GoM’s core social safety programs unified; (ii) single registry of social security beneficiaries unified. Baseline: (i) No (2012); (ii) No (2012) Target: (i) Yes (2015); (ii) Yes (2015). Both of the new targets achieved. CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 3: Actual Results Governance and Public Sector IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Capacity 13. CPS Objective Improved public financial management (Not Achieved) Indicator: (i) PEFA (PI.12) rating; PEFA (PI.12) Source: CLR, PEFA (2015) (ii) PEFA (PI.26) rating; (iii) PEFA Rating has remained unchanged at C+ PI-12 measures multi-year Major (PI.1 and PI.2) rating PEFA (PI.26) perspective in fiscal planning, Outcome Baseline: (i) C+ (2009); (ii) C+ Rating has remained unchanged at C+ expenditure policy and budgeting. Measures (2009); (iii) C (2009) PEFA (PI.1 and PI.2) PI.26 measures scope, nature and Target: (i) B (2013); (ii) B (2013); There was no improvement under PI.1 follow-up of external audit (iii) B (2013) and, progress cannot be assessed under PI2 because the results of the Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 3: Actual Results Governance and Public Sector IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Capacity 2010 and 2015 for this indicator cannot PI.1 measures aggregate be compared. s. expenditure out-turn compared to Not Achieved original approved budget PI.2 measures composition of expenditure out-turn compared to original approved budget The latest PEFA assessment (2015) shows that between 2010 and 2015 the ranking of public financial management indicators changed as follows: A fell from 6 to 5 B or B+ remained unchanged at 10 C or C+ fell from 9 to 8 D or D+ increased from 3 to 5 Indicator: Percentage of state Dropped as the intervention supporting Source: CLR investment expenditure processed the achievement of the indicator were through open competitive bidding no longer part of the Bank program. Baseline: 15% (2011) Not Verified (Dropped) Target: ≥ 65% (2015) 14. CPS Objective: Improved capacity of local administration to manage public finances (Achieved) Indicator: Number of districts with As of June 2015, the number of Source: CLR, P107311 ICR and more than 90% budget execution districts with more than 90% budget P107311 – ISR Sequence 7 of their district operational plan and execution of their district operational (February 2014) budget plan was 110 (P107311 ICR). National Decentralized Planning and Baseline: 85 (2009) However, as of September 2013, this Finance Program (P107311). Target: 105 (2013) and 110 (2015) number was 63 (P107311 – ISR Approved FY10. Management Sequence 7 – February 2014). assessment: MS. Achieved 15. CPS Objective: Improved citizen participation in public service monitoring (Not Achieved) Indicator: Mean user perception of The mean user perception of quality of Source: CLR and P115217 ISR quality of public services in Maputo public services in Maputo municipality Sequence 11 (December 2015). municipality, as reported in the is based on the Results from the Maputo Municipal Development citizen Municipal Report Card, Citizen Report Card which is annually Program II (MMDP II) (P115217). remains at 2.8 (0-5 scale) from conducted in June. The latest value Approved FY11. Management 2011 to 2013, and reaches 3.0 in from November 2014 is 2.7. The next assessment: MS. 2015 Municipal Citizens Report Card The most recent ISR for the Maputo Baseline: No (2011) exercise is scheduled for September project (Sequence 13, December 8, Target: Yes (2015) 2015. 2016) notes that the indicator on Not Achieved improvement in perception “will probably not be achieved” 16. CPS Objective: Greater contribution of wildlife conservation to economy (Achieved) Indicator: Bio-indicator species (2 (i) Maputo Special Reserve Source: CLR and P071465 ISR species / area) in Maputo Special The CLR reports that the elephant and Sequence 19 (June 2014) Reserve, Zinave National Park, zebra population increased 197% and Transfrontier Conservation Areas Banhine National Park and 93% between 2006 and 2012. and Tourism Development Project Chimanimani Reserve continues to According to the P071465 ISR (P071465). Approved FY06. IEG: S increase about 1% per year from Sequence 19 (June 2014), elephant The indicator refers to an increase 2011 to 2015 increased by 37% between 2006 and between 2011 and 2015. However, Baseline: No Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY12-FY15 – Focus Area 3: Actual Results Governance and Public Sector IEG Comments (as of current month and year) Capacity Target: Yes 2013. No information is provided on the CLR reports only between 2006 zebras. and 2012. (ii) Zinave National Park There are discrepancies between According to the CLR, impala and nyala the figures reported in the CLR and increased by 204% and 81% the latest available ISR for the respectively between 2006 and 2012. P071465 project (i.e. Sequence 19). According to the P071465 ISR Sequence 19 (June 2014), impala and nyala increased by 219% and 73% respectively between 2009 and 2013. (iii) Banhine National Park According to the CLR, oribi and ostrich increased by 682% and 150% respectively between 2006 and 2012. According to the P071465 ISR Sequence 19 (June 2014), oribi and ostrich increased by 682% and 147% respectively between 2006 and 2013. (iv) Chimanimani Reserve According to the CLR, duiker and sable increased by 186% and 250% respectively between 2006 and 2012. According to the P071465 ISR Sequence 19 (June 2014), duiker and sable increased by 189% and 254% between 2006 and 2013. Achieved 17. CPS Objective: Improved transparency in extractive industries (Achieved) Indicator: Mozambique achieves Mozambique was EITI compliant since Source: CLR, EITI website and maintains EITI compliant 2013 and issues reports annually. Mozambique: Extractive Industries- status from the International EITI Achieved Technical Advisory Facility Board (P126354). Approved FY12 Baseline: No (2011) Mozambique Phase II: EITI Target: Yes (2015) Implementation (P127115). Approved FY12 Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Mozambique Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-16 Project ID Project name Proposed Approva Closin Proposed Approved Outcome FY l FY g FY Amount Amount Rating Project Planned Under CPS 2012-15 P107350 Water Resource Development 2012 2012 2018 70.0 LIR: MS P125283 Technical and Vocational AF 2012 2012 37.0 No Rating P123201 Cities and Climate Change 2012 2012 2018 120.0 LIR: MS P126226 PRSC 8 2012 2012 2013 110.0 No Rating Total FY12 337.0 P127303 Integrated Growth Poles Project 2013 2013 2020 100.0 LIR: MU P146402 Road and Bridges Management and 2013 2014 2018 39.4 LIR: S Maintenance III P129847 Mining and Gas TA 2013 2013 2020 50.0 LIR: S P129489 Agricultural Productivity DPO 2013 2013 2014 50.0 LIR: MS DROPPED Early Childhood Development 2013 ???? CESUL Regional Transmission 2013 P129524 Social Protection Program 2013 2013 2018 50.0 LIR: MS P128434 Climate Change DPO 2013 2013 2013 50.0 LIR: S P125477 Nutrition program AF 2013 2013 37.0 No Rating P124615 P4R in Economic Governance 2013 2014 2018 50.0 LIR: MS P131212 PRSC 9 2013 2014 2014 110.0 LIR: S Total FY13 536.4 P125120 Greater Maputo Water Supply 2014 2014 2020 178.0 LIR: S DROPPED Transfrontier Conservation Area II 2014 DROPPED Fisheries and Coastal Livelihoods 2014 DROPPED Peri-urban Water Supply 2014 ???? Regional Agricultural Productivity 2014 P146930 Agricultural Productivity DPO 2014 2015 2016 50.0 No Rating P146537 PRSC 10 2014 2015 2015 110.0 LIR: MS Total FY14 338.0 DROPPED Agricultural Productivity DPO 2015 DROPPED PRSC 11 2015 P146398 Climate Change DPO 2 2015 2015 2015 50.0 LIR: S Total FY15 50.0 P149377 Water Service & Institutional Support II 2016 2023 90.0 No Rating P149620 MZ-Agriculture NRM Project 2016 2022 40.0 No Rating P151185 AF to Education Sector Support Project 2016 50.0 No Rating P151861 Financial Sector DPL II 2016 2016 25.0 No Rating P154422 Mozambique PRSC XI 2016 2017 70.0 No Rating P156559 MZ - Emergency Recovery Project 2016 2019 40.0 No Rating Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Project ID Project name Proposed Approva Closin Proposed Approved Outcome FY l FY g FY Amount Amount Rating P157598 Training and Education for Tribunal Adm 2016 2019 0.0 No Rating Total FY16 315.0 Total Planned 1261.4 Unplanned Projects during the CPS Period P124729 MZ-AFto Education Sector Support Project 2012 40.0 LIR: MS P146098 Water Resources Dev I Flood Response 2014 32.0 LIR: MS AF P150956 Third Additional Financing to RBMMP2-AF3 2015 73.6 LIR: S P146602 Addl Fin for Higher Educ Science and Tec 2015 45.0 LIR: S P131965 MozBio Program - Phase 1 2015 2019 40.0 LIR: MS P133687 Financial Sector DPL 2015 2015 25.0 LIR: S Total Unplanned 255.6 On-going Projects during the CPS Period Approva Closin Approved l FY g FY Amount P107598 MZ-PROIRRI Sustainable Irrigation Dev. 2011 2017 70.0 LIR: MS P114880 MZ:APL2 Roads & Bridges - 1st Addl Finan 2011 41.0 N/A P115217 MZ-Maputo Municipal Development Prog II 2011 2016 50.0 LIR: MS P121060 MZ-Health Commodity Security Project 2011 2014 39.0 IEG: MS P121398 MZ-Spatial Development Planning TA 2011 2016 20.0 LIR: MU P125127 MZ-Education Sector Support Program 2011 2019 71.0 LIR: MS P107311 MZ-Nat'l Dec Planning & Fin SIL (FY10) 2010 2015 30.4 LIR: MS P108444 MZ-Energy Dev. & Access Project (APL-2) 2010 2017 80.0 LIR: MS P111592 MZ Higher Educ Science & Techn. (FY10) 2010 2019 40.0 LIR: S P099930 MZ-Health Service Delivery SIL (FY09) 2009 2017 44.6 LIR: MS P106355 MZ-Competitiveness & PS Dev 2009 2016 25.0 LIR: S P084404 MZ- Transmission Upgrade 2008 2016 93.0 LIR: MS P104566 MZ-Water Services & Inst. Support 2008 2016 15.0 LIR: S P083325 MZ-APL2 Roads & Bridges 2007 2018 100.0 LIR: S P096332 MZ-Maputo Municipal Development 2007 2012 30.0 IEG: S Program P071465 MZ-TFCA & Tourism Dev (FY06) 2006 2014 20.0 IEG: S P086169 MZ-Financial Sector TA Project 2006 2012 10.5 IEG: MS P087347 MZ Tech & Voc Edu & Training (FY06) 2006 2016 30.0 LIR: MS P093165 MZ-Market Led Smallholder Dev (FY06) 2006 2014 20.0 IEG: MS P082618 MZ-Beira Railway SIL (FY05) 2005 2012 110.0 IEG: U Total On-going 939.5 Source: Mozambique CPS and AO table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 1/7/16 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. ** Regional Projects not included on this table *** NR: No rating. Latest ISR not available Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Mozambique, FY12 - FY16 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P123282 MZ Financial Sector Development Strategy FY12 Not assigned P123405 Mz-Growth and Fiscal Space FY12 Not assigned P127831 MTDS Follow Up - Mozambique FY12 Debt management Performance Assessment(DeMPA) P129626 Prioritizing INF Investment Spatial Lens FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P132610 Cultural Heritage Sustainable Tourism FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P130463 Mozambique Public Expenditure Review FY15 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P143053 MZ Governance FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P151635 Policy Notes New Government FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P145456 Mozambique Service Delivery Indicators FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P148554 Health and Development in Mozambique FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P152677 Mozambique Energy Sector Policy Work FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P152702 Program. Poverty and Employment Analysis FY16 Other Poverty Study P152901 Teachers Capacity and Accountability FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P104447 MZ-GFDRR Mainstreaming Disaster (FY12) FY12 Technical Assistance P111130 Resistance Monitoring & mapping for IRS FY12 Technical Assistance P122210 Mozambique Risk-Based Internal Audit FY12 Technical Assistance P123993 Mozambique EI Value Chain TA FY12 Technical Assistance P124129 MZ - Social Protection Assessment FY13 Technical Assistance P127668 Mozambique Gas Master Plan and Policies FY13 Technical Assistance P116532 MZ-Participatory Budgeting FY14 Technical Assistance P127132 Mozambique #10170 Fin Sector Dev Strat FY14 Technical Assistance P131017 Follow-up on Country Procurement Systems FY14 Technical Assistance P133363 Institutional Review for Mining and Gas FY14 Technical Assistance P133429 RCIP Phase 3 TA FY14 Technical Assistance P143888 Mozambique financial capability survey FY14 Technical Assistance P117026 MZ: Russia Education Aid for Development FY15 Technical Assistance P126704 Mozambique Mining Sector Governance FY15 Technical Assistance P128770 MZ: Reforming the fisheries sector TA FY15 Technical Assistance P132006 AF/MZ/02 Peri-urban sanitation and water FY15 Technical Assistance P132023 AF/MZ/03 Sector Information System FY15 Technical Assistance P132131 CSO Mozambique: Cap Bldg under EITI FY15 Technical Assistance P143109 Ag. Sector Risk Assessment-Country 3 FY15 Technical Assistance P147265 Poverty Statistics FY15 Technical Assistance P148656 Support procurement training Curriculum FY15 Technical Assistance P148657 Procurement System Review and Support FY15 Technical Assistance P151818 ZMM Growth Triangle Capacity Building FY15 Technical Assistance P128003 MZ Capacity Building for SOE Reform FY16 Technical Assistance P132005 AF/MZ/01 Rural and Town Water Supply FY16 Technical Assistance P147525 MZ Env and Social Capacity for EI FY16 Technical Assistance P149134 Business Climate for Planted Forests FY16 Technical Assistance P150118 Mozambique#A041 Debt Markets Development FY16 Technical Assistance P150449 Enhanced Financial Management Practices FY16 Technical Assistance P151719 MZ Soc. &Env. Safg &Gend Perf.Port. Rev. FY16 Technical Assistance P153476 MZ Agriculture and Rural Development FY16 Technical Assistance Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P153610 Mozambique #B042 Crisis Simulation FY16 Technical Assistance P155179 Approach towards Climate Change FY16 Technical Assistance P155440 Mozambique - Flood Rapid Assessment FY16 Technical Assistance P156291 Land and Community NRM NLTA FY16 Technical Assistance Source: WB AO ESW/TA 1.4 as of 3-6-17 Annex Table 4: Mozambique Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-15 ($M) Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating P151185 Mozambique Additional Financing to Education Sector TF A0429 2016 2019 57,900,000 Support Project P144551 AFCC2/RI Regional Transmission Interconnection between TF 18537 2015 2017 3,600,000 Mozambique and Malawi P132029 AFCC2/RI-South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance TF 19022 2015 2022 7,000,000 LIR: MS and Shared Growth Project 1 P132597 Mozambique GEF Conservation Areas for Biodiversity and TF 18239 2015 2019 6,319,635 LIR: MS Development Project P149992 Mozambique - Artisanal Fisheries and Climate Change TF 17403 2015 2019 3,177,746 P149536 Building Gender-Sensitive SPL Systems TF 17054 2015 2016 900,000 P123201 Cities and Climate Change TF 16486 2015 2019 6,500,000 LIR: MS P123201 Cities and Climate Change TF 16580 2015 2019 9,250,000 LIR: MS P083325 Mozambique -Roads and Bridges Management and TF 17375 2015 2016 15,381,749 LIR: S Maintenance Program - Phase II P149629 Enhancing Spatial Data for Flood Risk Management Project TF 17383 2014 2016 4,053,129 LIR: S P149629 Enhancing Spatial Data for Flood Risk Management Project TF 17384 2014 2016 4,902,095 P147835 Social Accountability Knowledge, Skills, Action and TF 15860 2014 2019 700,000 Networking P130795 Mozambique Tourism Institutional Capacity Strengthening TF 14715 2014 2017 748,720 P145018 MZ Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Post TF 15142 2014 2016 650,000 Compliance I P132551 Mozambique - Maputo Peri-urban Sanitation TF 13234 2014 2018 1,775,950 P129847 Mozambique Mining and Gas Technical Assistance Project TF 16113 2014 2019 8,664,911 LIR: S P083325 Mozambique -Roads and Bridges Management and TF 15923 2014 2017 6,500,000 LIR: S Maintenance Program - Phase II P083325 Mozambique -Roads and Bridges Management and TF 15898 2014 2017 9,250,000 Maintenance Program - Phase II P131049 Climate Resilience: Transforming Hydro-Meteorological TF 14031 2013 2019 15,000,000 LIR: S Services P131195 Mozambique Climate Change Technical Assistance Project TF 12431 2013 2017 2,000,000 P107598 MZ PROIRRI Sustainable Irrigation Development TF 10214 2013 2017 14,250,000 LIR: MS P124216 MZ-Preparation and Supervision of the Pilot Public Works TF 10612 2012 2013 1,800,000 Program P125127 MZ-Education Sector Support Program TF 99811 2012 2015 90,000,000 LIR: MS P127820 Support for upgrading the Chamanculo C Neighborhood in accordance with the Global Strategy for URIS in Maputo TF 10683 2012 2015 545,000 Municipality P129413 MZ - FCPF REDD+ READINESS PREPARATION TF 11206 2012 2017 3,800,000 SUPPORT Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating P124732 AFSF - Africa - Mozambique - Banco Oportunidade - BOM TF 11099 2012 2015 754,000 P127115 Mozambique Phase II: EITI Implementation TF 10226 2012 2013 350,000 P126354 Mozambique: Extractive Industries-Technical Advisory TF 99766 2012 2014 750,000 Facility P124755 Mozambique-Programmatic Support to Disaster Risk TF 99391 2011 2015 1,398,000 Management Phase I P125225 Mozambique PPCR - Phase 1 TF 98872 2011 2014 1,500,000 P116717 Capacity building of the Mozambique Supreme Audit TF 97535 2011 2015 446,250 Institution P108855 Mozambique: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative TF 96920 2011 2012 375,000 Implementation P104566 Water Services and Institutional Support Project TF 97281 2011 2015 16,990,800 LIR: S P099930 Health Service Delivery TF 96505 2010 2016 16,267,749 LIR: S P099930 Health Service Delivery TF 96375 2010 2014 7,862,000 P099930 Health Service Delivery TF 96399 2010 2016 4,052,721 P116352 Strengthening M&E for PARPA III TF 96135 2010 2013 499,805 P150546 Mozambique - Community-Based Coastal Resource Management and Sustainable Livelihoods TF 93663 2009 2015 1,853,000 P114318 MOZAMBIQUE: Legal and Financial Advisory Services for Power Transmission System (EDM) TF 92988 2009 2015 692,000 P104945 Mozambique Water Private Sector Contracts - OBA for TF 91213 2008 2014 6,000,000 LIR: S coverage expansion P104566 Water Services and Institutional Support Project TF 90410 2008 2013 15,000,000 IEG: S P098040 Market-Led Smallholder Development in the Zambezi TF 91638 2008 2014 6,200,000 LIR: S Valley P087347 Technical and Vocational Education and Training TF 56866 2006 2012 7,350,000 IEG: MS P076809 Transfrontier Conservation Areas and Tourism TF 56038 2006 2014 10,000,000 LIR: S Development Project P071465 Transfrontier Conservation Areas and Tourism TF 54759 2006 2014 3,720,000 Development Project P071942 Mozambique: Energy Reform and Access Program TF 52650 2004 2012 3,090,000 Total 379,820,260 Source: Client Connection as of 01/6/16 Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Mozambique, FY12-FY16 Total Exit Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY ($M) 2012 P082618 MZ-Beira Railway SIL (FY05) 112.9 UNSATISFACTORY HIGH MODERATELY 2012 P086169 MZ-Financial Sector TA Project 9.6 NEGLIGIBLE TO LOW SATISFACTORY MZ-Maputo Municipal Development 2012 P096332 29.3 SATISFACTORY NEGLIGIBLE TO LOW Program MODERATELY 2012 P126226 Moz PRSC VIII 108.8 MODERATE SATISFACTORY 2014 P071465 MZ-TFCA & Tourism Dev (FY06) 21.4 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT MZ-Market Led Smallholder Dev MODERATELY 2014 P093165 20.1 SIGNIFICANT (FY06) UNSATISFACTORY 2014 P104945 GPOBA W3: Mozambique Water 0.0 SATISFACTORY MODERATE MODERATELY 2014 P121060 MZ-Health Commodity Security Project 36.3 NEGLIGIBLE TO LOW SATISFACTORY MZ-Nat'l Dec Planning & Fin SIL MODERATELY 2015 P107311 29.9 SIGNIFICANT (FY10) SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P087347 MZ Tech & Voc Edu & Training (FY06) 67.1 MODERATE SATISFACTORY 2016 P104566 MZ-Water Services & Inst. Support 51.9 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT 2016 P106355 MZ-Competitiveness & PS Dev 25.3 SATISFACTORY MODERATE Total 512.6 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 3-6-17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Mozambique and Comparators, FY12-FY16 RDO % Total Total RDO % Outcome Outcome Moderate or Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower ($M) (No) Sat (No) Sat ($) Mozambique 512.9 12 74.1 83.3 53.9 58.3 AFR 17,881.5 368 73.9 66.8 41.3 34.0 World 100,417.5 1,202 82.9 71.0 59.6 45.5 Source: AO Table 4.a.5 as of 3-6-17 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Mozambique and Comparators, FY12-16 Fiscal year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average Mozambique # Proj 29 33 33 32 29 31 # Proj At Risk 4 4 6 3 7 5 % Proj At Risk 13.8 12.1 18.2 9.4 13.4 Net Comm Amt 1,121.3 1,409.7 1,507.2 1,682.3 1,752.1 1,494.5 Comm At Risk 256.6 282.0 347.5 283.6 354.3 304.8 % Commit at Risk 22.9 20.0 23.1 16.9 20.2 20.6 AFR # Proj 627 566 620 643 659 623 # Proj At Risk 127 128 138 136 144 135 % Proj At Risk 20.3 22.6 22.3 21.2 21.9 21.6 Net Comm Amt 40,416.8 42,649.1 49,142.6 54,586.3 59,033.9 49,165.7 Comm At Risk 6,504.6 14,310.8 16,548.2 16,000.3 18,949.8 14,462.7 % Commit at Risk 16.1 33.6 33.7 29.3 32.1 29.0 World # Proj 2,029 1,964 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,008 # Proj At Risk 387 414 412 444 422 416 % Proj At Risk 19.1 21.1 20.1 22.0 21.4 20.7 Net Comm Amt 173,706.1 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 192,779.1 Comm At Risk 24,465.0 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 39,287.3 % Commit at Risk 14.1 23.2 21.3 22.9 20.1 20.3 Source: AO Table 3a.4 as of 3/6/17 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Mozambique, FY12-16 Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Overall Result Mozambique Disbursement Ratio (%) 21.1 19.1 20.7 21.3 25.1 21.5 Inv Disb in FY 145.3 150.9 187.8 174.9 200.2 859.1 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 687.4 790.0 907.5 821.9 798.1 4,004.9 AFR Disbursement Ratio (%) 21.4 22.5 23.1 24.5 19.6 22.2 Inv Disb in FY 5,260.3 5,652.1 6,143.9 6,473.2 5,572.5 29,102.1 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 24,595.0 25,175.9 26,540.4 26,463.6 28,377.1 131,152.0 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.8 20.6 20.8 21.8 19.5 20.7 Inv Disb in FY 21,048.2 20,510.7 20,757.7 21,851.3 21,149.6 105,317.6 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 101,234.3 99,588.3 99,854.3 100,336.7 108,594.4 509,608.0 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Source: AO Table 3.a.12 as of 3/6/17 Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Mozambique, FY12-15 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer Jul 2011 - Jun 2012 248,163,205 9,867,859 238,295,346 - 12,258,853 226,036,493 Jul 2012 - Jun 2013 202,448,466 10,851,191 191,597,274 - 13,110,935 Jul 2013 - Jun 2014 352,811,499 11,487,952 341,323,547 - 15,186,852 326,136,696 Jul 2014 - Jun 2015 361,942,441 14,841,218 347,101,223 - 16,445,165 330,656,058 Report Total 1,165,365,611 47,048,220 1,118,317,391 - 57,001,805 882,829,247 Source: World Bank Client Connection 1/6/16 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Mozambique Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 Australia 16.09 11.08 4.44 Austria 8.74 6.77 7.08 Belgium 11.87 30.9 21.08 Canada 123.43 107.74 75.68 Czech Republic 0.01 .. .. Denmark 78.8 88.63 57.41 Finland 39.49 28.88 28.49 France 21.99 32.72 71.99 Germany 60.35 62.71 77.51 Iceland 2.31 2.88 2.75 Ireland 52.8 55.25 53.27 Italy 22.36 22.25 23.66 Japan 70.3 98.37 85.28 Korea 25.13 57.08 56.51 Luxembourg 0.1 .. .. Netherlands 53.71 62.3 47.67 New Zealand 0.1 0.16 .. Norway 86.11 50.74 57.25 Poland 0.01 .. .. Portugal 80.24 66.93 53.41 Spain 17.87 19.31 11.43 Sweden 114.71 136.02 119.17 Switzerland 36.92 36.76 37.18 United Kingdom 129.6 123.1 138.24 United States 412.56 541.17 395.38 DAC Countries, Total 1465.6 1641.75 1424.88 African Development Bank [AfDB] 0.05 0.03 .. African Development Fund [AfDF] 71.84 65.62 81.34 Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] 1.34 4.7 6.25 Climate Investment Funds [CIF] .. 0.18 2.63 Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 EU Institutions 169.15 114.83 82.55 Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO] .. 0.81 .. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 19.37 27.82 26.3 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 5.22 5.09 2.22 Global Fund 73.84 28.44 100.41 International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.35 0.38 0.15 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] .. .. .. International Development Association [IDA] 223.07 368.91 317.45 IFAD 4.29 9.54 7.8 International Finance Corporation [IFC] .. .. .. IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) -2.23 -2.96 -3.21 Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] 8.66 2.07 8.72 Nordic Development Fund [NDF] -1.47 -1.59 3.45 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] -2.18 -1.88 0.07 UNAIDS 1.14 1.27 1.12 UNDP 7.14 6.61 6.87 UNFPA 4.67 3.63 5.25 UNHCR 2.74 3.32 .. UNICEF 14.49 16.15 14.73 WFP 4.78 3.09 2.96 World Health Organization [WHO] 1.79 1.61 1.89 Multilateral, Total 608.05 657.67 668.95 Kuwait [KFAED] -0.12 1.02 0.33 Russia 0.09 13.05 8 Thailand 0.02 0.12 0.22 Turkey 0.05 0.65 0.75 United Arab Emirates 0.31 0.4 0.31 Non-DAC Countries, Total 0.35 15.24 9.61 Development Partners Total 2,074.00 2,314.66 2,103.44 Source: OECD Stat Data as 1/06/16 Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Mozambique, 2012 - 2015 Series Name MOZ AFR World 2012 2013 2014 2015 * Average 2012-2015 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 4.2 2.4 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 1.4 1.2 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 1,010.0 1,060.0 1,120.0 1,063.3 3,273.9 14,410.1 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) (Millions) 520.0 590.0 600.0 570.0 1,605.1 10,629.6 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 2.7 4.3 2.6 3.2 5.5 3.0 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 27.6 26.6 25.2 26.5 14.8 3.1 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 19.1 18.7 21.1 19.6 27.4 26.6 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 53.3 54.7 53.7 53.9 57.7 70.4 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 34.3 26.7 21.8 27.6 21.1 21.9 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 7.1 4.5 8.1 6.6 18.8 22.5 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 26.4 25.7 26.2 26.1 29.7 29.8 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 77.8 74.8 69.5 74.0 32.9 29.7 Current account balance (% of GDP) -43.8 -36.8 .. -40.3 External debt stocks (% of GNI) 32.7 45.0 47.6 41.8 Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.7 Total reserves in months of imports 2.9 3.2 3.0 5.1 13.5 Fiscal Accounts* * General government revenue (% of GDP) 27.5 32.2 32.9 30.4 30.8 General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 31.4 34.9 43.2 36.9 36.6 General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -3.9 -2.7 -10.3 -6.5 -5.8 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 40.8 52.2 57.5 61.0 52.9 Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 54.2 54.6 .. .. 54.4 57.8 71.1 Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Series Name MOZ AFR World 2012 2013 2014 2015 * Average 2012-2015 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 76.0 78.0 78.0 .. 77.3 74.8 85.7 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 19.8 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.3 29.2 66.7 Improved water source (% of population with access) 36.3 37.0 37.0 37.0 36.8 54.5 83.4 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 63.6 60.9 58.5 56.7 59.9 58.9 33.2 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 19.2 53.5 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 105.1 105.2 105.2 99.6 108.2 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 25.9 26.0 26.0 42.6 74.6 Population Population, total (Millions) 25,732,928 26,467,180 27,216,276 26,472,128 948,481,133 7,174,847,128 Population growth (annual %) 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 31.4 31.7 31.9 31.7 36.7 52.9 Source: DDP as of 12/22/15 * Data not available for 2015 ** International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015 (estimates start after 2013) Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Mozambique - Investments Committed in FY12-FY16 Investments Committed in FY12-FY16 Project Cmt Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net Primary Sector Name ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 32522 2015 2015 Agriculture and Forestry G 161,200 - 30,400 30,400 - - 30,400 30,400 30,400 34183 2015 2015 Agriculture and Forestry G 10,483 3,647 - 3,647 - - 3,647 - 3,647 34708 2015 2015 Primary Metals G 48,000 13,500 - 13,500 - - 13,500 - 13,500 Industrial & Consumer 32703 2014 2014 G 85,300 35,000 - 35,000 - - 35,000 - 35,000 Products 34216 2014 2014 Oil, Gas and Mining E 1,954 - 977 977 - - 977 977 977 34761 2014 2014 Oil, Gas and Mining E 2,834 - 2,834 2,834 - - 2,834 2,834 2,834 33975 2013 2013 Agriculture and Forestry E 20,000 20,000 - 20,000 - - 20,000 - 20,000 31153 2012 2012 Food & Beverages E 58,200 25,000 - 25,000 - - 25,000 - 25,000 31952 2012 2012 Oil, Gas and Mining E 1,026 - 1,026 1,026 - - 1,026 1,026 1,026 28162 Active Oil, Gas and Mining E - - - - - - - - - 34244 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 977 - - - - - - - - Sub-Total 389,973 97,147 35,236 132,383 - - 132,383 35,236 132,383 Investments Committed pre-FY12 but active during FY12-16 Project CMT Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net Primary Sector Name ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm 29163 2010 Active Finance & Insurance E 30,000 30,000 - 30,000 11,000 - 19,000 - 19,000 27248 2009 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 20,000 - 5,000 5,000 - - 5,000 5,000 5,000 10983 2004 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 18,500 - 18,500 18,500 - - 18,500 18,500 18,500 9997 2001 Active Agriculture and Forestry E 2,352 715 - 715 - - 715 - 715 8021 1998 Active Food & Beverages G 2,146 1,000 - 1,000 - - 1,000 - 1,000 Sub-Total 72,998 31,715 23,500 55,215 11,000 - 44,215 23,500 44,215 TOTAL 462,971 128,862 58,736 187,598 11,000 - 176,598 58,736 176,598 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 1-31-17 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services for Mozambique Advisory Services Approved in FY12-16 Project Impl Impl Project Primary Total Project Name ID Start FY End FY Status Business Line Funds, US$ 585427 AMSME/WIN CAF 2016 2018 TERMINATED FIG 600,000 600689 Sasol Vilankulo Hospital PPP Study 2016 2016 TERMINATED CAS 817,905 573567 Sustainable Supply Chain in Mozambique 2015 2015 TERMINATED INR 121,308 598347 Portucel Mozambique 2014 2017 ACTIVE MAS 2,132,332 599406 Mozambique Water PPP 2 2014 2017 ACTIVE CAS 2,530,415 599698 PEP Africa-G&A Mozambique 2014 2018 ACTIVE CAS 21,529 564747 AMSMETA ABCH MZ. 2012 2015 CLOSED FIG 1,220,000 583267 Mozambique Investment Climate Program 2012 2016 ACTIVE TAC 1,024,229 Sub-Total 8,467,718 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY12 but active during FY12-16 Project Impl Impl Primary Total Project Name Project Status ID Start FY End FY Business Line Funds, US$ 579027 Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC 2011 2013 CLOSED A2F 1,000,000 Mozambique Limpopo Transactional 581787 2011 2012 TERMINATED IC - Advice 29065 Moza_Water PPP 2010 2012 TERMINATED PPP 1,320,262 565308 MSI programme-New Tintas 2000 2010 2015 DROPPED SBA 153,000 Africa Credit Bureau Program 2 - 569790 2010 2011 CLOSED A2F 269,666 Mozambique 574547 MSI Phase II - SMS Mozambique 2010 2012 DROPPED SBA 1,314,500 2007 544007 MOZ Tourism Anchor Program 2011 CLOSED IC 1,905,149 Sub-Total 5,962,577 TOTAL 14,430,295 Regional Advisory Projects Active in Mozambique from FY12-16 Project Impl Impl Primary Total Project Name Project Status ID Start FY End FY Business Line Funds, US$ 600563 SSA Index Insurance Program 2015 2019 ACTIVE FAM 5,000,000 587469 BAREC 2012 2016 ACTIVE MAS - 578327 SME Management Solutions 2012 2015 CLOSED CAS 4,691,056 TOTAL 9,691,056 Source: IFC AS Data as of June 30, 2016 Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC Net Commitment Activity for Mozambique 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Financial - - - - (11,000,000) (11,000,000) Markets Trade Finance 12,987,689 19,647,879 2,526,713 - - 35,162,281 (TF) Primary Production & - 20,000,000 - 3,355,050 (455) 23,354,595 Commodity Processing Agribusiness & Packaged Food & 25,000,000 - - - - 25,000,000 Forestry Beverages Forest & Wood - - - 30,400,000 - 30,400,000 Products Construction Materials - - - 13,500,000 - 13,500,000 Manufacturing Energy Efficient - - 35,000,000 - - 35,000,000 Machinery Oil, Gas & 1,025,609 - 3,810,691 - - 4,836,300 Mining Mining Total 39,013,298 39,647,879 41,337,404 47,255,050 (11,000,455) 156,253,176 Source: IFC MIS as of 3/10/17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Mozambique Project Max Gross Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Status Issuance Gigawatt Mozambique SA 2016 Active Power South Africa 115 Sojitz Maputo Cellulose, Limitada (SOMACEL) 2011 Active Manufacturing Japan 9 Companhia de Sena S.A.R.L. 2007 Active Agribusiness Mauritius 22 Motraco-Mozambique Transmission Company S.A.R.L. 2000 Active Power South Africa 69 Total 216