Energy Sector Manag Assistance Programme Haiti Household Energy Strategy Report No. 143/91 .. JOINT UNDP / WORLD BANK ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME (ESMAP) PURPOSE The Joint UNDP/Wodd Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Progmme (ESMAP) was launched in 1983 to complement the Energy Aet Pogramm, established three years earlier. ESMAP's original purpose was to implement key recom ions of the Energy Assessment reports and ensure that proposed investments in the energy sector represented the most efficient use of scarce domestic and extermal resources. In 1990, an intemational Commission addresed ESMAP's role for the 1990s and, noting the vital role of adequate and affordable energy in economic growth, concluded that the Programme should intensify its efforts to assist developing countries to manage their enurgy sectors more effectively. The Commission also recommended that ESMAP concentrate on maing long-term efforts in a smaller number of e,ountries. The Commission's report was endorsed at ESMAP's November 1990 Annual Meeting and prompted an extensive reorpaniz on and reorientation of the Progrmme. Today, ESMAP is conducting Energy Assessments, performing preinvestment and prefeasibility work, and providing institutional and policy advice in selected developing countries. Through these efforts, ESMAP aims to assist governments, donors, and potential investors in identifying, funding, and implementing economically and environmentally sound energy strategies. GOVERNANCE AND OPERATIONS ESMAP is governed by a Consultative Group (ESMAP CO), composed of representatives of the UNDP and World Bank, the governments and institutions providing financial support, and representatives of the recipients of ESMAP's assistance. The ESMAP CO is chaired by the World Bank's Vice President, Operations and Sector Policy, and advised by a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) of independent energy experts that reviews the Progamme's strategic agenda, its work program, and other issues. The Manager of ESMAP, who reporti to the World Bank's Vice President, Operations and Sector Policy, administers the Progrmme. The Manager is assisted by a Secretariat, headed by an Executive Sertuy, which supports the ESMAP CO and the TAG and is responsible for relations with the donors and for securing funding for the Programme's activities. The Manager directs ESMAP's two Divisions: The Strategy and Progm Division advises on selection of countries for assistance, carries out Energy Assessments, ppares relevant programs of technical assistance, and supports the Secretatiat on funding issues. The Operations Division is responsible for formulation of subsectoral strategies, preinvestment work, institutional studies, technical assistance, and training within the framework of ESMAP's country assistance programs. FUNDING ESMAP is a cooperative effort supported by the World Bank, UNDP and other United Nations agencies, the European Community, Organization of American States (OAS), Latn American Energy Organization (OLADE), and countries including Austalia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzeland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. FURTHER INFORMATION For fih information or copies of completed ESMAP reports, contact:- The Manager or The Executive Secretauy ESMAP ESMAP Consultative Group The World Bank The World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. U.S.A. HAITI HOUSEHOLD ENERGY STRATEGY DECEMBER 1991 FIXCLANGE RATE US$ 1 ourdes S.0 a Hatan $1 USS 1 = FF 5.8 CONVERSION FAC?'ORS LPG 0.55 45.7 Kerosene 0.8 43.5 Diesel 0.84 433 Wood (air dry, 20% humidity) 0.7 17.0 Chara (10% humidt 29.0 Bagse (50% humidity) 7.5 Fia Enera 86 Primy EnerV 283 Otm 1 US Gallon - 3.785 ter I barrl 159 liters 1 TOE -41.87 0J o 10 mMioncal CUarwa poduction eiiency - 20% (in weight) 1 stere of wood -1 il (staked) * 0.6 m3 (round wood) 1 cureau = 129 ha ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIUTIONS AFVP Association Frangaie des Volontaires du Progr&s AOP Agroforestry Outeach Project RAPP Bureau d'Approvisionnement en Produits P6troliers BDPA Bureau de D6veloppement de la Production Agricole B1T Bureau International dui Travail BME Bureau des Mines et de l'Energie BRH Banque de la R4publique d'Halti CPNAP Commbsariat & a Promotion Nationale et t l'Adminition Publique DR1E Diecton des Ressources Energdtiques (BME) EdH Electricit6 da ESMAP Ekergy Sector Management Assitance Progmme FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Coop6ration FAO Food and Agricl Orgnization FEPP Forety and Enironmental Protection Project OoH Govenmuent of Haiti IDA interational Development Association LPG Liquifled Petroleum Gas MARNDR Mlniste de lAgdcultur; des Ressources Naturelles et du D6veloppement Rural ODH Operation Double Harvest NOO Non Governmental Organization OLADE Latin Ameican Energy Organization TFAP Tropical Forestry Action Plan PFN Proet Forestier National UNDP United Nations Development Program !EI Renewable Energy Development nstitute SRF Service des Ressources Forestieres TOE Ton Oil Equivalent USAID United States Agency for International Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2b . . . . .: .:. . .:.:. . . . . ... . .. . ... . . . . .. .. . .. ... .. .. .. .. . .. . . . .- . ........ .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . . - . . : :~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. co~ * 0. * .... - a iFz g~~~I ~~~.~ .......- .--.- - . . ...... ..*a.*-................... ............R. II. T E STRATEGY ................................................... 33 A . Interventions on Woodfuel Supply ............ ................................ 33 Current Economic Situation of Charcoal Exploitation ................. 33 Modlernizng the ChbarcoaSector .. * *.....*....................................... 37 Geographic: Reorientationof Charcoal Offtake ...................... 38 todernization of Supply Netvorks .......... ............................... 41 Improving theCharcoal Taxation System .............. . ........... 42 B . Demand-Side Interventions ............................................... 44 Economlc Conditions for Charcoal Substitution ........................... 44 Comparative Fuel Prices ..................4**.4..* *.. ......... 44 Real and Theoretic Economic Costs of Cooking Fuels ................ 48 Impact on the Balance of Payments . ............................ . 49 7no Market for Fuels and Stoves .............................................. S0 Cufrent Users of Improved Stoves, Gas Stoves and Kerosene Stoves ...... 50 Consumer Accepta e of Different Stoves and Fuels ...... ............ 51 Potential Markets for Stoves and Fuels ........................... 52 Gas Promotion .......... . * .......................... 54 Energy Conservation ............................................... 57 Substitution and Conservation: Discarded Options .............. .......... 58 Leam-Pronising Short Term Options ............. ................... . 58 Secondy Options ... ........................................ 59 TV. ST TEGY COMPONBNI . ......................................... 62 ening the Gas Market ............ ................................ 65 Charcoal Conservation ....................... ...................... 67 ModoIern fDizngie liarcoalSectr .................. .................... 70 Supply bLu{aser Plan for Port-au.Prince .............................. 71 Assstmazce to Chasrcoal odue .......... * * * * * ........................ 72 onitoring tie Strategy .................. .......... 74 Eomoniic Aspects ........................ .................. 76 Strate Costs 4444444444 44444444444......... 44... 4 44.......4........... 76 Financa and EAononic nalysis . ............................... 77 Rik ..................................................... 79 Financing .................................................. 80 TABLES 1.1 Final Energy Balance, 1985 . . ...... . . . ........... . . . . . . . 3 12 Woodfuel Conasunption in Haii 1990 ....................... ....... . 4 1.3 Cooking Fuel Use in Port-Au-Prince according to Living Standard Quintile (in percentage) ................................ 6 1.4 Cooking Equipment in Port-au-Prince in percentage ofotal Househlds..............444.4.44..... 7 1.5 Bloman Standing Stoc in 1988 .. ........ ... 10 1.6 Charoad rea post counted in Port-au-Prine ........................... 11 1.7 Production areas of charcoal since 1979 in percentage .................. .... 13 13 Charcoal price swr ture ......................................... 14 19 Clsrwltaixrevenues .............. ...................... ..... 17 1.10 BIP price ....... .................................. ... 22 3.1 Compared Costs of Cooking Port-au-Prnce, 1990 ....................... 46 32 Cos.s of Importing Gas and Kerosene ..... ................................. 47 3.3 Comparison of Propane Price Suctures in Haiti and Dominican Repubic ............ ................44.... .. 48 3.4 Compared EconomcCostsinPort-au-Prince, 1990 ........................ 49 3.5 Bip Tichri'sshareofthegasmarket in thousands of households ............... 50 3.6 Reints ofthemarketstudylnPort.au-Prince ................ . 40 ...... 53 4.1 Summarized Budget of theStratey,s Compov'.nts ......................... 77 4.2 Fiancial Analysis ... ..... *4444*44.. . *. .. 4*. . .4*....4..*. . 78 4.3 Economic Analysis ..........4.. o4.. 4 ...4 79 FIGURES: 1.1 Charcoal Supply Systems in Haiti according to Stevenson (1985) 12 3.1 Owcoal price * 1953-1990 Trend ...... . ...... ... . ...... . . 34 3.2 ProducersShareofCharcoal Price -1979-199OTrend ...................... 35 33 Main ChaacteristicsofCLarcoalProduction .................... 40 3.4 Costs of Cookingwith Charcoal Keaosene and Gas . ..... ..... 45 4.1 Epeded Impact of the StrateVU . . ... ... .... .... ......... . . ... 64 ANNEXES: L Foresty Resourcs and Deforestation .. ........... ..82 IL Energy Prices in the Cariean and Central A aerica. .................. 90 W.. Cookstoves i use n Haiti .................................. 94 Iv. Volumes of Charcoal Entries in Port-au-Prince . ... ...4.. ...4...4.. 99 V. Price Strcures of Charcoal, Gas and Keroene ....... .............. 100 VL Fiancial and Economic Coss of Cooking ............................ t 104 VIL Factor Analysis of the Household Survey .................. .. ...... 111 VIII. Market Study for Household Fuel ... . . ............................ 116 IX Projected Consumptions (Trend and Strategy) . ...... 124 X General Data .....4.. ...4................ ..... 127 XI. Short-Tern Actions.......... ........o .................... 144 XIL EconomicCostofCharcoal ... ...... 149 XIIL Reports and Studies Canied out .......... 4.............. , .......... 156 TV. Budget of the trt Coponents ..................... .............. 158 MAPS IBRD No. 23061 - Haiti Progession of Charcoal Poduction Areas IBRD No. 23062 - Haii, Charowal Production Areas IBRD No. 22676 - Hait5 Forestry and Environmentad Protection Project FOREWORD This study was completed as an activity of the Joint World Bank/UNDP/Bilateral Aid Energy Sector Managem.ent Assistance Program (ESMAP). Financing for the study waa provided main by the N.3rweglan Government, as well Ps by UNDP, the French Government and the Jai.-nese Fund. The study was implemented with the assistance of and in close coordination with lie BME/UNDP/OLADE Energy Sector Strengthening ?roject (HAI/89/031) and with the teams involved in the preparation of the IDA financed Forest and Environmental Protection Project ESMAP and its consultants worked with their main counterpatv, tde Bureau of Mines and Energy (BME) as well as wil the Forest Resources Sevice (ERS), the Bureau for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) and the main Haitian organiztions operating in the sector. The study coordinator in the BME was Loctamard Antilus, Director of Energy Resources. Nicole Dieudonne, Guilen Aurelien and Naquin Medina also participated in the study. violette Derosiers was responsible for svey data entry (carried out at the BME), with assistance from Marie Mercie Dieujuste and Eunide Germain. The main authors of the following report are Philippe Durand (Task Manager, ESMAP) and Michel Matly (Energy Economist, coordinator of the consultant team). The study team indluded Jocelyne Durany-Jakob and Carole Roy (Consultants, Sociologists), Jos6phine Arpaillange (Energy Statistician, ESMAP), Chrsa Bonaparte (Consultant, Marketing Specialist), CAlite Cldrism6 (Consultant, Sociologist) and Kevin Fitzgerald (Energy Statistidan, ESMAP), as well as about thirty presenters and pollsters. Thi study is based on a major data collection effort comprising both quantitative and qualitative information collected from December 1989 to May 1990. During this time, the folloig main suveys and in-field inquiries were carried out: household surrey, market pols and *uveys of small businesses in Port-au-Prince; surveys of charcoal retailers and transporters in Port- au-Prince and in the main cities; sureys of rural merchants and charcoal producers in the main areas which supply charcoal to Port-au-Prince; counting the number of charcoal entries at Port- au-Prince (see Annex XM). EXECUTIESUMMARY 1. Haiti's environment is undergoing a gradual p-ocess of severe degradation, which has immediately perceptible and sometimes irreversible effects, secialy with regard to loss of soils and decreasng agricultural yields. Even though this enviromental problem has arisen partiall due to multiple non-energy factors (demographic prassures, agricultwal techniques, irregular land tenure practices), the fact remains that woodfuel consumption, especialy urban charcoal consumption, is a major contributor to deforestation. Tbis is not a newly noted phenomenon: experts have cited it for more than a decade. However during that time, no coherent, comprehensive program has been proposed or undertaken by the Haitian Government with assistance from international development agencies. 2. It is signficant that in Haiti - frequently cited as one of the countries in the world where environmental desuction has reached an alarming phase - there is no recent inventory of forest or biomass reources, nor any serious analysis quantifijng the extent of deforestation. Without fundamental data needed to accurately evaluate the current state of the biomass stock and its annual growth, alarmist accounts of the approaching demise of the last Haitian tree persisL Independently of the uncertainties surrounding wood-energy supply potential, deforestation in Haiti is an inconttabe reality; it is therefore important to reduce the pressure on forest resources generated by woodfuel consumption, especiall charcoal consumed in Port-au-Prince. Reforestation d ManagM Fofreist Rmmu 3. The only national-scale projects related to this problem have been carried out by the private sector. They comprise mainly the agro-forestry tree planting projects run by non- governmental organizatons operating throughout the country. Although these plantatins are expnsive and their overall suwess has been relative, several million new trees grow in Haiti each year as a rest of these efforts. An additonal advantageous outcome is that tree planting has boeome ingrained into traditional peuant practices However, tree, planting efforts represent only partial solutions to Hait*s deforestation problem. Based on the latest analyses of deforestation, at least 23 million surviving trees would need to be planted each year, i.e. nearly 10 times the current rate, in order to reverse the destucion of national forest resources. 4. Public mn ent of forest resources, already relatively ineffective, has continued to Wons In 1986, a new stage was reached: monitoring of forest exploitation disappeared almost totalDy. Since then, charcoal exploitation has spread throughout the country, starting from areas where lage-scle production was already the nonn, so that now almost all regions of Haiti market charcoal for the capitaL In some parts of the country, parularly along the aiorthwest peninsula, v i. charcoal production plays a major role in the rural eco:aomy and has become an important source of income for numerous peasants. 5. The large scale plantations approach has been abandoned because of the lack of financial piofitabflity which in turn prompted landholders away from this option. Also, investments for reforestation and forestry research under the National Forestry Project have produced only minor results relative to the deforestation problem. The project achieved somewhat limited progress with increasing the effectiveness of forestry control; but the Forestry Service still monitors only 10% of the charcoal trade. Management of Household En,r Demand 6. Several projects have addressed the problem of charcoal conservation (BME, NGOs). Results were negligible due to the smal size of the projects, lack of resources and dispersed efforts. Although studies show that the charcoal cookstoves currently in use are highly inefficient, there have been no commercial-scale promotion of improved models. 7. The initiative for developing charcoal substitutes has been taken by the pri:ate sector, which introduced portable butane gas stoves (Bip Ticheri) and engaged in large-scale publicity campaigns to promote this fuel. The Government assisted private sector efforts by decontrolling gas prices and app.ying favorable foreign exchange conditions to fuel imports in 1987, wih extension of the same conditions to the import of Bip cookstoves in 1989. Costs of Household Fuels 8. Extensive use of charcoal in Haiti's cities is, to a very large extent, an indirect consequence of the high gas prces which result from current supply and distnbution arrangements. In fact, the Haitian gas market is a de facto monopoly, characterized by small and often outdated instaflations and gas prices among the highest in the Caribbean, if not the world. It is a captive market for the petroleum company which holds a monopoly over the entire supply of gas - from gas purhases on the international market to retail distribution. 9. Under the current situation - no other supply alternatives, decontrolled gas prices, no taxes or tariffs - the offiial gas policy is prejudicial against the State itseW, depriving it of much needed resources. This policy costs the economy about $25 million annually, has no direct benefits to the consumer and only marginally provides incentives for the use of g's as a charcoal substitute. Under a more norral price structure, the gas could be lightly taxed, and the supplier margins would be reduced so that the final price is much less costly for the consumer. 10. Analyses show that under normal conditions of supply, gas becomes the best financial option for the consumer and the best economic option for the country. Market studies underscore that gas is also the fuel which is most likely to sucessuly substitute for charcoal in urban Haitian lv- households: the market potenW'al is for conversion of 25% io 50% of households In the capital depending on which pricing assumptions are retained, as compared to a potential market share of le than 10% for its direct competitors, kerosene and electricity. The upper estimate, 50%, is substantially bhiger than the current rate of market penetration: only 15% of Port-au-Prince households use as as the only or primary fuel However, this is far below the estimated 70% uthiation rate by households in the capital of the Dominican Republic, though the fuel is heavfly subidized (and the price of charcoal is two times higher than in Haiti). 11. The household energ sector is in complete economic disequilibrium and thus rapid intervention is needed. Peasant charcoal producers subsidize urban consumers since wood is acquired at a price far below its replaceme"nt cost - prices which reflect a "mining" mentality in the exploitation of forestry resources - thereby contributing to degradation of the environment and the rural economy. International organizations subsidize reforestation activities and even part of the operadng costs for the forestry services, while elsewhere ineffective collection of charcoal-related ues represents a recoverable loss of nearly $1 million annualy. The public authorities subsidize the gas sector to a considerable extent through its favorable import policies; unfortunately, no benefits accrue to either the consumer or the State, even though the State itself is sorely in need of more sources of operating revenues. 12. The primary objective of any intervention in these areas is to gradually restore the financial and economic equlibriums in the sector through: lowering significantly the price of gas; allwing charcoal prices to increase substantialy; introducing mechanisms for the State to generate rvenues from the marketing of both fuels, sufficient for financing operations and partal Investments by the public entities responsible for managing the sector. 13. Intervention also will be centered only on several main themes which represent important stakes for the countty and which are likely to have significant impacts. These themes wil be addressed in a manner so that the scale of intervention will have national impacts. 14. Intervention requires the State to affirm its political willingness to act at the highest levels, and to make a more accurate accounting of its strengths and weaknesses, by seeking intervenon of eising non-governmental and private entities, and by negotiating when necessary with the local populations. 15. Finally, intervention in the household energy sector must be designed as a contribution to solve the problem of environment degradation. A household energy strategy would therefore not hinder but rather complement and reinforce the countrys global strategy for natural resource management -V. 16. The proposed strategy contains measura designed.to effectively redress quickly the current dramatic situation in the sector by intervening on four levels - the four components of the rdcommended strategy: a. opening the gas market, b. generating charcoal savings, C. modernizing the charcoal sector, d. sector monitoring and evaluation. 17. Te frst m of th_. opening the gas market, wi create conditions for real competition in the gas sector, thus producing downward pressure on the gas prices to the benefit of consumers It also will facilitate access to gas as a primary fuel and to gas appliances by the less prieged classes (middle classes and upper levels of the poorer households). This will be accomplished by either installing new receivin& storage and filling in or by elarging exsting inftucture, with possibly temporary recourse to gas imports supplied from the Dominican Republic. The various pibilities of partnerships between private or institutional operators, both local and foreign, should be studied, as well as the legaL regulatory and fiscal aspects of the prerequisites and consequences of partnership choices. 18. The second component of the strategy is the lgW-scale distribution of improved wcoal stves in Port-au-Prince and in the four major secondary cities in Haiti In fact, even under the most favorable assumptions of subituto by other fuels, the proportion of households which will continue to use charcoal will remain ignificant: about one in every two, on average in the major cites. he distibuton wil target household users of round stoves and "potaje" cookstoves, as well as snall roadside food vendors ("manje kwit'). A total distrbution of 80,000 stoves i8 anticipated at the end of three years 19. The third component targets the reorgpnization and.ratonalzaton of charcoal exploitation. Charcoal exploitation will be redistrbuted geohicall through the use of regional production quotas, which will ensure that charcoal production is carried out in areas where the risks to the enionment are acceptable. The component wi help the Haitian Government to more effectiey control the flows of charcoal, especially for marketing in the capital, and to collect taxes associated with charcoal transport. The component is based on definiton and implementation of a Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince, strengthening and improvement of controb on charcoal transport and of the tax colection system, contribution to defining a priority rural development progrm to compensate local popuations for losses generated by application of charcoal quotas, and -vi- implementaton of an assistance program for charcoal producers in zones where charcoal exploitation wil continue. 20. 31M fourth coment indudes creation of a Steering Unit for the strategy. The Stering Unit wl asre permanent supersion and coordination of the household energy sector and wil assure cooperation between the various sector participants, as well as coordination and evaluation of activies carried out as part of the strategy. In order to promote coherence in the sector, the Steering Unit wil also oversee adjustments to pricing and fiscal policy and legislation cmoening the different fuels. At the fiscal level, the strategy includes improved collection rates for charcoal preos and a now tax on the price of gs once the gas price structure has been revised so that gas can be distributed throughout Haiti at lower prices (para. 16). 21. The main outcomes of the Strategy wfll be to stabilize charcoal consumption in Haiti and to gradually transform as much charcoal production as possible into a sustainable, financially profitable and envionmentaly benip economic activity. Specific outcomes for the strategy once the four components have been implemented are the following: a. gradually incrase in the proportion of urban consumers using gas as the primary fuel, with a target percentage of 35% of Port-au-Prince households in 1996 and 50% in 2001 (10% and 20% respectively in other cities); b. developmeat of gs consumption from 7,000 tons at present to 23,000 tons in 1996 and 41,000 tons in 2001; C.X ue of improved stoves by one of every two charcoal consumers in Port-au-Price by the year 2001; d gradual drop in charcoal consumption (and thus decreased pressure on national forest resources) by 43% of projected 2001 consumption, through substitution by gas and distribution of improved stoves. i. mprovement of conditions for charcoal production and rationalizaton of the acce to forest resources in the main charcoal eploitation diticts (Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince), including improved tax polcy and better enforcement of regulations concerning charcoal commerce (tax collection rates for charcoal tranwport to g from 10% in 1990 to 60% in 1996); f vocationa taining and assistance for developing professionalism among 500 small- scale charod makers vii - 22. Tho impacts of this strategy on the national economy are the folo.wing a. relative increase in petroleum product imports of 12% by 2001, all other things being equaL This is equivalent, in terms of the current level of ternal trade, to 4% of the countries total exportsL b. income genermted by charoal exploitation in the main production zones to remain constant (or, under normal conditions, to increase due to efforts to increase the real producer price). Cot and FEnancing 23. Implementation costs for the strategy total USS 10.5 mfion over the 1992.1994 period: USS 0.8 million for the stove distribution progam, (which is included in IDA!s Forestty and Envionmental Protection Project) US$1.4 million for modernizing the charcoal sector, USS 7.5 million for petroleum investments (ir 't private), and US$ 0.8 million for monitoring and evaluation. Total recurrent costs are estimated at US$900,000 over the period 1995.2001. The simplffied economic and financial analysis gives a financial IRR of 10% and an economic IRR of 40% for the period 1992.2001. 24. Considering the urgency of implementing the Strategs components, obtaining the necesay funding should be among the Government's priorities. Several bilateral donors traditionally active in the energ and foresty sectors could be approached, such as France, Canada, uSAYD and Germany. Other resources might also be tapped, such as the Haiti Economic and Socal Fund in the recently-reated Global Environment Facility. L OVERVIEW Genra Socio-Econemic Osve Dtioationu of the Eggffi= 1.1 By far the poorest country on the Latin American continent, Haiti has been in the midst of a sustained economic and social cisis for over a decade. Tis crsis is manifested by a continuous decline in per capita GDP averaging 1 to 2% per annun since 1985 and estimated at nearly 4% in 1989. The drop in GDP has had repercussions in all economic sectors. The decreased demand for imports, associated with the economic slowdown and the resulting reduction in the population's purchasing power, has been totally offset by declining exporis, decreasing of foreig aid and the loss of tourism revenues. Thus the trade deficit, which was about 40% in 1989, remains substantiaL In the formal commercial sector, the level of salaried employment has continued to drop: accrding to the National Bank of Halti (Banque de la Rpublique d'ati - BRH), the number of employees in the formal sector declined by 10% between 1986 and 1989. The effects of the crWis have not spared the informal sector: during the last three years, about 20% of the 3300 mini and small business located in the capital have been forced to shut down. Declininf of Purchasin Power in Urban Areas 12 Inflation was relatively moderate until recently but now is on the rise; officially estmated at 7%, actual inflation figures were in the range of 15 to 20% in 1989. The prices of most basic products have increased substantialyr. food products such as oil, meat, eggs and sugar rose by 30 to 80% between February 1989 and February 1990. Construction materials Otso increased by 25% during the same period (30% for timber alone). By contrast, the minimum salay in HaIt4 (H$ 100/month) has not changed since 1984. A progressive weakenin of HaIti's crrency is linked with this inflation. At the beginning of 1990, there was a 40% differential between the nominal rate of exhange (5 Gourdes per $1) and the actual rate offered on the paralel market. There results a continued erosion of purchasing power in urban households, particuarly among the middle dasses, whether it be for purchases of imported supplies and products (automobile purchases, for example, have dropped from nearly 6000 in 1985 to 2500 in 1989) or more simply for purhases of local products Acity Slowdow in Rural Areas 13 Agriculural actiy has been on the dedline for several years, as evidenced by a decrease in its value added ir 1989; in conatant terms, value added already had fallen by 10% from 1986 to 1989. Agricutural activity decline is parwtiuly noticeable at the level of crop exports for products sch as cocoa (production was halved between 1985 and 1988) or sugar cane (production went from 2 milion tons in 1985 to 350,000 tons in 1989). Inflation coupled with a decline in international market prices act as disincentives to ural producers: the tendency now is 2- to move away from eport-oriented cash crops and raise food crops instead. The eradication of pigs also has deprived the peasants of one of their rare sources of monetaty income. Marketed production and monetary income in rural areas thus have been reduced considerably, producing infi4tionaty rcions on the prices of products flowing onto the national market. 1.4 With an estimated population of 5.8 million in 1990, Hait has a population density of 215 inhabitants per bnm, one of the highest in the hemisphere. This creates a growing pressure on the environment due to demand for new agricultural land. Even so, the annual growth rate for the rural population is estimated at only 0.7% for the period 1982-2000, while the growth rate for the urban popuation would reach nearly 5% during the same period; the capital, Port-au-Prince, represents nearly 20% of the total population. This urban population, most of whom consume charcoa, thus constitutes a rapidly growing threat to the environment 3b E3n=ag Sector E=Wa BDemand 1.5 Per capita conumption of commercial energy in Hait is among the lowest in the world and certainly the lowest on the Latin American continent. Estimated at 1.8 barrels of oil equivalent (b.o.a), annual per capita consumption is only half that of the Dominican Republic, one third that of Jamaica or Barbados, and one quarter that of Cuba. These comparisons are even more strikng fqr elecicity consmption, which measures about 51 kWh per capita annually in HaKit versus 430 kWh in the Dominican Republic, 510 kWh in Jamaica, and 1410 kWh in Cuba. Only a fraction of Haiti's population has access to =ommercial energy, kerosene, used for lighting, is the only fue in widespread usage. Gas 1/ and electricity are used by a very small segment of the population, almost acc*el in urban areas (the national electrification rate is less than 15%). 1.6 The most recent energy conmption data (for the year 1985) are summarized in Table 1.1. Residential energyr cWns on represents more than half the total energy demand, followed by the commercial sector (21% of national demand), industry and transport. The table emphasizes the preponderance of the woodfuels sector in national energy supply fuelwood, which by itself represents 70% of the national supply, charcoal and sugar cane bagasse. Haiti currently is more than 80% slf-sufficient in energy due to residential use of wood in rural areas and of charcoal in urban area StiDl, it also should be noted that fuelvood, bagasse and, to a lesser extent, charcoal are used largely by the industrl sector; thus these fuels cumulatively represent 63% of energ consumtion by industry. 1/ References to gas in this rMpr impl Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG). .3. Igkl1.ls Final tnwry _orution, 198 (1000 TOE) Residential Indtry Transport Corceial Pubtlc Toxal Cost 36.S 36.5 Petroltepro icts 17.4 49.0 121.5 187.9 LPG 2.7 1.2 3.9 Electricity 10.1 11.1 1.2 3.1 2S.5 Charcoal 88.9 1.5 90.4 Fualwood 635.1 49.8 286.S 971.4 Sao"" 86.0 86.0 TOTAL 754.2 233.9 121.5 287.7 4.3 1401.6 1.7 Several srveys and evaluations by the BME and within the famework of this study show the breakdown of charcoal and fuciwood consumption by category of consumer. This breakdown is presented im Table 12, which shows both the levels of woodfuel consunppdon and their equivalent in terms of wood cuttin& One wi note: (a) the importnce of charcoal which is ony consumed by less than 30% of the populadon, but represents 40% of the demand for wood, (b) the importance of non-residential charcoal onumption, estinated to represent 20% of the total dharcoal consumption, (c) the importance of Port-au-Prince for cbarcoal consumption; with two-thirds of the naon con -4. Tabte .2': Voodfuel Consuption in Haiti, 1990 Charcoal Woodfuel Vood equivalent (1000t) (1000t) (1000t) (a) (1000.3) (b) Port-au-Prince Households 160 800 1,143 21 Informal sectors, others 40 200 286 5 Bakeries/dry cleaninw 20 20 29 1 sub total 200 20 1020 1458 27 Other urban HouseholdsZc) 65 30 355 S07 9 Informal sectors, others IS 75 107 2 Bakeries/dry cleaning 20 20 29 1 sub total 80 50 450 643 12 Rural Households- 2100 2100 3000 56 aSuldivas 130 130 186 4 Oil factories 30 30 43 1 sb total 2260 2260 3229 61 Total HaNit Households 225 2130 3255 4650 87 others 55 200 475 680 13 Total 280 2330 3730 5330 100 jggess (a) Charcoal production efficiency estimated at 20X (in weight). (b) Wood dnsity estimated at 0.7 tons/i3. (c) 905 of households use charcost. firews &Surveys of ESIAP/D1E/OLADE/PID, 1990 (Annex IX). Revised BNE data (1987). n2 XLgi of PetroleuImn 1.8 Despite the dominance of woodfuel in the national energy balance, petroleum imports represent a considerable weight on the Haitian economy. Petroleum imports amounted to nearly 50% of totale portsin 1982, when oil prices peaked. After falling sharply to just 20% in 1987, the ratio between oil imports and total exports has begun to increase once again, due partly to the continued erosion of export of goods and services and partly to the sustained demand for energy (Annex X). 1.9 Thus in 1989, the energy bill absorbed more than 30% of the countys export revenuea Kerosene and LPG represent 10% in volume and about 20% in value of all petroleum product imports to the countiy. Although ps consumption is very limited (about 10,000 tons in 1989), the value of gs imports alone is equWalent to 4% of the total value of HaIti' eports Cats of Commial Enery in Hati 1.10 One of the reasons for low consumption of commercial ener is without doubt that Halti is one of the Central American and Canibbean countries where petroleum products and electricity are most expensive. A comparison of prices in Haiti and the Dominican Republic demonstrates this: even taking into account the overvaluation of Haitian currency ( a 40% margin estimated between the official market rate and the parallel rate relative to the dollar), the price of kerosene and diesel are about two times higher in Haiti, that of electricity three times, and LPG prices nearly five times higher than in the Dominican Republic (see Annex II), where LPG is heavily subsidized. 1.11 Conditions for marketing and distrbution are such that major differentials also exist between the economic cost of the various fuels in Haiti and in other Central American and Carbbean countries. TI is particularly true for LPG, a fuel which is not under government price controt Household and Small Indut Consumtin in Urban Area =naeidetal Conumotion 1.12 Tle categorization of Port-au-Prince households by fuel (primary and secondary) is summarized in Table 13. Charcoal is the most utilized fuel, consumed by 90% of the capital's households. The most affluent clases are abandoning the use of charcoal (only about 2/5 of the 20% most affluent households use charcoal as their primary fuel). Those who consume charcoal only (62% of the population) use about 0.44 kg per capita daily. Taking into account secondary uses of charcoal, daily per capita consumption in the capital for all households combined is estiated between 0.36 kg (based on weighin auried out in 22 households) and 0.42 kg (based on a survey of 400 households). This results in a total residential consumption for Port-au-Prince approaching 160,000 tons in 1990 (based on the results of the household survey). .6. ilb 1.3: Cooking Fuet Use in Port-Prince acording to Living Standrd Quintile (in percentap) Nedium Nedita LoW Low Nediua Nigh NHlh Total CHARCOAL Only or main fuel 89.7 96.6 97.8 83.8 41.1 80.8 Sacmndmry fuel 6.4 2.4 2.2 11.3 32.8 10.9 Total 96.1 99.0 100.0 95.1 73.9 91.7 GAS only or wain fuel 1.3 1.3 2.5 13.9 55.8 15.1 Secondary fuel 1.3 3.? 3.7 31.0 22.0 12.0 Total 2.6 5.0 6.2 44.9 77.8 27.1 FUELU10 only or mafn fuel 7.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 Secondary fuel 6.4 4.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 Total 14.1 6.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 11.8 ELECTRtICITY Only or main fuel 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.5 secondary fuel 2.6 0.0 3.8 11.3 6.3 4.5 Total 3.9 0.0 3.8 11.3 8.8 8.0 Only or main fuel 0.0 1.2 0.0 2.5 1.3 1.3 Secoday fuel 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.8 1.3 1.8 Total 0.0 1.2 3.8 6.3 2.6 3.1 sLE : Survey ESIP/W/LADE/P, 1990 llos S" Amx X for tho definfitn of the living standard vrale and aerae incoe and food epdture ftor oah quintit*. 1.13 Among the other fuel gas is of spe l note, as nearly 27% of households currently are equp with Vgs stoves or gs cookers and more than half of these (15% of total) use gas as the primaty fuel (see Table 1.4). In fack use of gs is well _sablished mainly in high-income households (half use it as the primary fuel) and middle-income households (those with incomes of more than $250/month). Use of gas among households with more modest incomes s1 is relatively limited: however, the arrival of "popular gs with the disemination of Bip single-flame butane has generate an iital penetrin of this market. More than 50% of portable gas cookstoves are sold to households with incomes of ler than S2W0/month (the last three quintiles of the population). 1.14 Other fuel are used on* by small seents of the popuation: wood used in poor households (2.1% in open fires and 4.1% in portble cookaoves); kerosene, which one finds in use among the fringes of middle- to high-income populi (0.8% primay usage and 53% in stoves/cookers); and electicity (0.8% primary usage and 53% in stoves/cookers) used uniquey in affluent households. -7.. 1.15 Household energ consumption in the seoondary cities of Haiti (the main ones being Cap Haitien, Les Cayes, Gonaives and St Marc) apparently Is compable so that in the capttal, with charcoal predominating The proportion of householb using pas and kerosene for cooking is much lower, however, and residential consumption of fuehwood is stifl widespread, spially in cain port neighborhoods situated along city outsits laife 1.4: Cooktng Equipwnt In Port-Princ* In Prcentage of total Nouhholts Nan stove Secondery stove Other stove Wood Three ston 1.8 2.5 Charcoal Round stove 55.3 10.3 PotaJS6 stove (36tal) 13.6 3.S "Potaj6' stove (blocks) 7.0 3.8 Squre stow 4.0 2.3 3qwoved stove 1.5 0 0 total S1. 19.9 2.3 Gan alp Tich4rl 3.5 S.8 1.5 Plate 1.S 0.3 0 Cooker 9.8 7.0 2.5 Toatl 14A 1.1 4.0 Keroesne 1.0 1.5 1.3 Electricity 1.0 4.5 1.3 TOTAL 100.0 41.5 9.0 Scumse: urveyESNAP/W/OLADE/PNW 1990. * - Less than 1X. 1.16 There are various metallic traditional cookstoves available (see Table 1.4); the dominant types are the following: (a) the round stove (or its square version which swls for prices vatying from $1.5 to $2, is used by twohirds of the households, (b) the wpotaje stove, consisting of two or three burers supported by a metallic or cement block fiame, is used by near 30% of the househol, geay the most affluent. The metlic model of this Nt of the lne' stove coss fom $15 to $20, and the %loW model sells for about $3 to $S per burner. -8- 1.17 The lifespan of these stoves is approimately one year. The round sngle-burner stoves (as well as their square version) are produced by 'r6chauliers (craftsmen who specalie in making portable cookstoves), and the potaj6 stoves by iron or metal masons. An estimated 200 r&chauliers can be found in the capital CosuMlin Sma lAdut 1.18 With regard to wood and charooal consumption by the urban productive sector, a distinction must be made between two main categories: (a) productive activities in the informal sector, which often consume charcoal; (b) bakeries and dry-cleaners, which use mostly firewood. 1.19 Among the activities of the informal sector, small roadside restaurants and hot food vendors represent the bulk of charcoal consumption: a study carried out in 1989 by the Center for the Promotion of Female Workers estimates that there are nearly 80,000 sale points of food products in Port-au.Prince, of which 20,000 consist of small Omanj6 kwit restaurants (one for eight households). Even if these figures are overestimated, they show the informal sector's importance in the capital. The household survey estimates that charcoal consumption linked to home-based productive activities of this sort accounts for 20% of total residential consumption: thus in Port- au-Prince, about 40,000 tons of charcoal are consumed by these activities annualy, bringing the total consumption of charcoal in the capital to 200,000 tons/year. 1.20 The BME's 1987 census identifies 836 bakeries (146 in Port-au-Prince) and 113 dry- leamers (94 in Port-au-Prince). Some of these companies have switched from kerosene to gas (approximately 30 bakeries and 13 d&yv-eaners): hence 95% of the bakeries and 90% of the dry- leaners in Hati consume firewood elusively. Total consumption, respectively, is estimated as 24,000 and 10,000 tons of wood. Cnsumption by ousehojds and Small ndustry in Rural Areas Rlda Consumption 121 Various activities have been undertaken to assess rural fuel consumption, generally within the framework of reforestation projects. They show that firewood is almost exclusively the only fuel used in rral areas for cooking food and related acivities. Various estimates of the quantities consumed give figures convergig around 500 kg/year of firewood per capita. In most cases, this wood is gathered free of charge by the peasants on their land; in certain regions, however, especiay in large agrinuural zones where sugar cane or 'vetiver are cultivated, rural marketing of firewood is beginming to appear, sometimes even for residential uses. Ihe use of . 9 - charcoal Is relatively limited and concentrated in a few areas with large charcoal production activities. ==bL bmauJDd. 1.22 In 1985 there were 473 'guildivese and 'moulinsguildivese (small companies producing supr and drinkng alcohol), mainly in the southwest peninsula of the country. Some of the moulin-guildives use bagasse from sugar cane and more modern guildives use diesel but most of these small industries use large wood. This is also the case with 31 essential oil factories; a few more than half use firewood for their oil extraction process. It is estimated that in total, the annual wood consumption of these small enterprises is 130,000 tons and 30,000 tons, respectively. ^cQet ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Wodfe Resources 1.23 The extent of Haitis forest resources is not well-known; the last estimation was based on aerial photographs taken in 1978, and comprised only natural forest formations. A World Bank environmental study (BDPA) undertook an evaluation of forest resources based on the 1982 land use map which was established using the aerial views from 1978 (see Table 1.5). As this map was not created specificaly for foreatty needs, the estimates which are drawn from it - the most complete and most precise of all existing estimates - remain at best approximate, even according to the authors of the map. Still, it is possible to note the importance of fallow land and tree crops as standing imventory for biomass, and probably the principal source of wood in Haiti - 10. IAM*.JJl Ille_oS Stncdtlg Stocks In 19 8 Areo Volim (1000 he) (2) (10000 aS (2) Bread-tleaf foret dse 14 1X 2l1O 46 degraded SO 2X 2500 5X rogneration s0 32 3200 62 Pine fret dne a oX 1200 2 opn 20 1X 600 1X wry open 40 12 520 1 Aro-psturel fost prosopic forest S 0A 250 1X ghrnis (ds) 100 4 2500 5X shrus (opn) 15s 7x 2405 5s Nrove 1S X 525 1X en treo crops 170 a 5100 10X (fruit tre, coffee) open tree roPs 40 14 "40 13X Othr (h eous 1682 612 10095 202 crops, swrt rottion fellos, sesom, rock, etc.) TOTAL 2769 100 37395 76 jgg*s UDPA, 19 Ch SUDD1VNetworlu 124 Charcoallsdistibutedthroughanextreme deentraledurbanetailandwholesale network In the greater Port-au-Prince reion (Port-au-Pince, Delmas, Carrefour, and P6tionville), there are an estimated 3000 sales points, as presented in Table 1.6. There are nearly 200 large varehouses with capacity for more than SO bap and, at the other end of the scale, nearly 1500 mostly female, small reiers (the marketing of cbarcoal, both at the wholesale and retail levels, is carried out mosty bywomen). Much of the harco is sold in the markets, induding the wharfs, wch comprise nearly 3/4 of the market for sales in ba. * 11. Iglas.6. Charcoal retail poste couted In Port-w.Prtnce LWS0 than N Nllr of retall posts Ibg I to 10 11 to so thn SO Total X Port*au-Prince 749 277 260 11? 1,423 62 Carrefour 282 134 131 44 591 26 * 0t1e 119 37 24 2 182 8 P6tioittll 57 34 23 2 116 5 Nwkets S81 283 309 151 1324 5? am" 23 1S 10 3 51 2 AloN the street 0 184 139 t1 334 14 Alon the road 603 0 0 0 603 26 Total conted 1,20? 42 4SG 165 2.3i2 100 X 52 21 20 7 100 Total esttzted 1.800 520 5o0 180 3,000 Z60 17 17 6 100 IU1CRV~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .NE 1% 12S Approimatey 37% ofte charcoal consumed in the capital is transported by boat kmo the portsoftewo pen 1sa nd from onave island; the remaiing 63% is delivered by truck or other vaious modes of road traport The practioe of Ocharbon-provione which refers to c od transported in passenger vehicles to escape regulation by public officials - a practice tlaerated by the Foresty Svice up to a limit of 10 bap -swidespread. About 15% of the charcoal supply enters the cit by this meas Charcoal generaly is delivered by rural merchants (uswaly female, referred to as madame Saras) who hire transpot to come and seU charcoal in the city (see Fi4ure 1.1). 1.26 Carca production, entirely done with tradionl methods, has been the object of only some limited inestitions Ihe charcoal producers use small capacity sak (5 to 10 bag) of various forms (pasol circlar, or recaular bateau' kilas). the obsved yield by weight are quite high (20%) in areas wth largrscale prduto but it seems that yields are lower in areas where carbonizaton acdvity rcently has been esbied. As there is very little quantitative data, a campain to take measuem-ents fom a pre ative sample of kilns i very much needed. .12 - Eigpre1.1: Charcoal supply systems in Haiti according to Stevenson (1985) Produce/charoaler Reron Ma\rket Trasprtler Collector Wholesaler In Port-au-Prnc Lal Merchant Retailer .13- 1.27 IL comparison of two maps, one created in 1980 (Adas CNRS 1985), the other in 1990 based on Information obtained from various suiveys conducted during this study, shows how wharcoal production has become widespread throughout Haiti The extension of charcoal production dates primarily from 1986, when public control over forest exploitation in Hait disappeared for all practical purposes. 128 The origin zones of charcoal delvered to Port-au-Prince in 1980 and in 1990 are shown in Table 1.7; the results of a revised count of the volumes of ' rcoal entries in Port-au- Prince are also given in Annex IV. A progressive diversication of supply to the capital can be seen; to the traditional production zones in the northwest and the south have been added new zones, notably the Grande Anse (southwest peninsula) and the Central Plateau. There are no longer hardly any zones in the country, with the cweption perhaps of the far northeast, where dharcoal is not produced for Port-au-Prince (see maps for 1980 and 1990 in Annex XIV). Table 1k,: Production areas of Charcoal since 1979 in percentaee Department 1979 198S 1990 North vest 50 33 21 south 30 36* 2 Central 10 1s** 13 Gonae 10 3 5 Grande-Anse 0 ` 13 south Eant 0 9 3 Uast 0 4 26 Artibonite 0 13 North 0 0 4 t tncludinG Grande-Anse I Including Artibonite Source: Karl Voltaire, 1979 University of Maine, 1986 Supply ME rgin and Rvne 1.29 The cost to the residential buyer of charcoal in Port-au-Prince, when sold by the bag, is about 1 Gourde/k: each bag costs 40 Gourdes and weighs on average 38 kilograms. When sold in small quantities ('lotse) with unit value varying between 0.5 and 1.5 Gourdes, charcoal costw on average 25% more (1.25 Gourdes/kg). In pots or baskets, the cost of better quality charcoal ("gayak! wood) can even reach 2 Gourdes/kg (see Annex X). In the other cities, charcoal is a litde less expensive: sold by the bag, it costs about 0.7 Gourde/kg in main cities wh as Les Cayes or Cap Haltien, 0.5 Gourdes in smaller town such as Gros Morne or Camp Perrin (southwest p)ma. *14- 130 The charcoa producers share of the rt price has decreased Unremittingr, this is related to the general sagnation of income In Haits rural areas. However, a Oprofessional producer places a value of 1.5 Gourde/hour on his work, which is compaable to the income of a peasant (8 to 9 Gourdes/day) and sround 30% higher than the rate of a day laborer (6 Gourdes for a S to 6 hour day, see Annex 10). 131 Although some wholesalers and hanporters have rather lre sales figures from marketing cha baicaly because of the lag volumes concned (a truck making 100 trips annually can geerate a net annual income of $10,000 to $15,000), the margs for tansprte, wholesalers and retaile conform to the standards generally found in networks for wood and charcoaL 132 On the basis of information collected during vadous surveys, the transport price for dharoal is about 0.1 Gourde/day/kilometer (regression analysis performed on a dozen loads delivered by road, and about 50 statements made by tan ). Taking into account the tansport costs in Hati, whih fluctuate between $1.1 and $2 per km for a large trucks according to the state - paved or unpaved - and topography of the roadway (see Annex X), the trawporter ears a net margin of approimate 30% to 40%. The urban intermediaries (wholesalers and retailers) earn a gross cumulative margin of 25% of the reta price (see Table 1.8). Tabtl 1.8: Charcol Price Structwr Ooureu/Ra (d) Sorde/Ton 1. Produoer/charcoaler/collector priee 14-17 368-446 35.42.5 2. Tranwort to Port-au-Prince (a) 6-9 158-236 15-22.5 3. Tax 1 26 2.5 4. Intermsdiariaa/other mrgins 5-6 131-158 12.3-15 S. Wholtster purcde price (1.2+3+4) 28-30 736-788 70-75 6. Wholesaler margin (b) 5-6 131-15S 12.5-15 7. Retaler mrgin (sale by boo) 5-6 131-158 12.5-15 8. Averae prfce per b 40 1050 100 9. Retailer's additial margin (e) 8-10 210-263 20-25 iJl: (a) Including loadingunloding cost. (b) UWoltler's marin can be 6+7 Wimen the wholesaler sells directly to cornsrs. (c) Sale fn mlt qwntities ("lot", basket, pots etc.). (d) N of 38 in ver. WM: Surves EIP/8NE/PNU/OMD of 67 charcl transporters In the North-wet, South-west and Vat region. Wood SIpp e,r 133 Because transport costs are high relative to the sales price of fuciwood, the supply networks for this fuel are conideraby shor than hose for charcoaL Thus, a large part of the suppl for bakeries in Port-au-Prince comes from nearby "mornes" (small Isolated hills) and from .15. areas close to the Central Plateau; In Gonalvo, wood I sled from the mangroves. Frwood tuck headed for the capil usually follow routes which alo thom to avoid official controls. The guidives and essential oil factories usually are suppled with wood from fut tres (manges, avocadoes), as these tre often are Juded useless or too numerous by the peasants since the eradication of pig4 134 Liquid perleum produsb are imported by Srlt=O (Shel Interaional), Exxon and Taoo Trader from refineries operating in the resio Kerosene normally comes from uncao from a fomer Shel refinery whih now i operted by a ubsidiay of P6toleos de Venezuela. Products an Utnspored by Genral Purpo tankers with 36,000 to 40,000 ton cpacity, which then continue on towards the Bahom 135 Propane Vs fnhed by Sll 0 to two disribon companies, Tropipz and Hal Gsz comes frm Punta Cardon (Venezua), Mexico, or the United States. Gas is tranqsorted to Haii by tankers owned by Tropi;z fiv times per trimestr. The trport cos re d b 30 cents/glo, equivalent to about $150/ton (see par. 3.47). 136 With roegrd to propne strge, Tropigaz has three tanks, one with 30,000 gllon capacity, bought from Es in 1953, and two others with 63,000 glon capacity, insaed in 1978. in addition, Haiti Gaz owns a unit with 30,000 glon capacity. Thus the total storage capacity is low (400 tons in water, ie. 320 tons of gas), and is on sufficient to guarantee a litt less than 15 das of sup, wit frequent ortaes of 1 or 2 days. Tropigaz also has a botting plant with three Ming lines, with a total capacity of 8000 g per day (16 tons/d), also quicly g saturtion. 137 Butane gs also is spped by SlTCO, mainly from Venezuela, and resold to Sodigz by Shell Haiti I 1988, Shel made ivestments of $800,000 for diuting Bip doves and butane. The invstments Included: (a) reoeption fa and two storame units with a total acta capacity of 130 tons (150 nomial) ($600,000) (b) a fMing cent with capacity of 900 to 1000 botdes per day (per cyce of 8 hours), or 3000 botdes daily fr tre cyce ($100,000). (c) various preliasq marketing studies, icluing a tudy of the taget client (see pars 3.53) ($100,000). - 16 - 138 Both bottling plants for propane and butane are located in Port-au-Prince, whih absorbs the quasi-totality of butane consumpton and most of propane consumption. Propane and butane bottles are tanorted to other main cities by trucs and sold by distributors at a price reflecting additional transport cost (for instance the refiling of a 12 kg propane bottle costs about 40% more In Cap Haitien than in Port-au-Prince). 139 The Shell group plans to restructure its storage and bottling system in the medium term to face forecast demand of butane and propane at their current prices. It is possible that marketing of propane then would be dropped in favor of increased marketing of butane as part of a Caribbean butane strategy designed by headquarters, which projects the creation of a major storage center of butane in the area (possibly in Puerto Rico). Insituioal ramwok and Ongoig Actions lwnstitudn F-ramew-ak 1.40 Among the major publc institutions concerned with the sector, the Bureau of Mines and Energy (BME), through its Directorate of Energy Resources (DER), is responsible for (i) promotion of national energy resources and, more generally, of all forms of energy which could contribute to the country's development; (ii) rational energy use; and (iii) environmental protection in relation to mining and quarries. The DER is staffed by nine professionals and had an annual budget of 1 mlllion Gourdes in 1988. Its activities indlude management of various energy projects in cooperation with French assistance and OLADE: energy statistics, development of solar and wind energy, improved stoves, and use of bamse. The DER currently is the recipient of a program to stengthen its operations, financed by PNUD and OLADE (Energy Sector Strengthening Program), of whic this study is a component One of the main objectives of the program will be to prepare a National Energy Plan. 1.41 At the Ministry of Agriulre, Natural Resources and Rural Development (MARNDR), the Forest Resources Service (RS) is responsible for protecting, managing and developing national forest resources. In particular, it is responsibe for implementing the National Forest Project, which wil enter its second phase in 1992 (Forest and Environmental Protection Project). However, as with many rural development activities in Haiti, most of the reforestation activities are carried out by numerous non-governmental organizadons (NGO), both Haitian and foreign, because of difficulties encountered at the MARNDR such as: limited operating budget, lack of coordination, lack of poliy continuity and lack of motivation among the employees 1.42 With the exception of public installations for security stocks of diesel and kerosene, the Haitian petroleum sector is totally private. Three companies share the market: Taco, Esso and Shell. The latter is the only company which markets LWG. Within t te Ministy of Industry and Commerce, the Bureau for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) supavises the sector and - 17- regulates the price of liquid fuel; in pratice, although BAPP is conscious of the distortions in the price of gas (as shown in the third chapter), its resources and means to act are limited. Chaal Read nd ITaxao 1.43 A decree dated October 1987 grants MARNDR the ability to authorize and control the cutting of wood and also gives wood-consuming companies a period of 6 months to subsdtute wood by other fuels. In practice, this decree has not been applied. On the contrary, all control over forest exploitation - and charcoal exploitation in partcular - has disappeared since 1986. This engenders two main negative consequences for the sector: the universalization of charcoal production throughout the country and the slowdown of price increases for charcoal 1.44 There is a tax on the transport of firewood and charcoaL levied at the district leveL in addition, the forestry service has a number of checkpoints, which operate with unequal degree of effectiveness (see map no. 2 for Port-au-Prince in Annex XII). Transport permits certifying payment of the tranwort tax and the number of corresponding bag (often underestimated) are verified by forestry agents at the checkpoints. The official tax on charcoal, originally 025 Gourdes, has risen since October 1989 to I Gourde per bag. The forestry service records show that 368,000 and 513,000 bag were checked during the fiscal years (October to September) 1987/88 and 1988/88, respectively. This amounts to respectively 14,000 and 20,000 tons of charcoal, ie. less than 10% of the charcoal which in fact was marketed in Port-au-Prince. 1.45 Special effort is being made to improve the monitoring of the volumes transported and to improve collection of the charcoal tax, with positive results as shown in Table 1.9. Despite these improvements, there is room for much more progress: an estimated $800,000 additional revenues in charoal taxes could be collected by the State if control was fully eflcientL The firewood tax theoretically is 1 gourde per piece of wood, in general 1 gourde per stere; in practice, it rarey is coecte Iabtl 1.9: Chgrcosl Tax RevWrs Total 1bnthy % of theoretic (x1000 Gwurdes) revw rwwe revw. 29 Augut - 15 Decber 1918 48.8 13.9 2 3Jms mary - 30 larch 1989 75.0 25.0 4 10 April - 11 July 1989 146.2 48.7 8 11 july- 31 October 1989 150.9 40.8 7 31 October - 29 Decedbr 1989 141.4 70.7 12 source: lASSO, Forestry Project. 1.46 Besides the official taxes, there is an entire unofficial ytem of levies, the revenues from which do not go to State Treasuay. This was true before 1986 in the case of charcoal eploitation, where the merchant often had to pay local authorities more than 3 times the value of * 18. the official tax. Ibis s stil the case for charcoal tansport; the ransq must make a contribution, either in charcoal or money, at various checpoints along his route. Thus his real not margin is diminished. 1.47 Numerous reforestation projects are underway in Hait mainly as part of programs for non-governmental asstce to rural areas: an enionmental study (IDA/BDPA) catalogued more tban 80 project aimed at limidng deforestation (soil conservation, seedling plntations, etc.) A Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP) wil be formuated during 1991/92 under the suevision of PNUD and FAO in order to coordinate the different projects under a common poliqy frameworkL With regard to plantations, two approaches have been attempted, with very different results: large plantations and agroforesry. 1.48 The use of large plantations as a strateW for fghting deforestadon was attempted under mainly the Operation Double Harvest (ODH) financed by CARE, one of four components in the Agroforstry Outreach Project (AOP) financed by USAID, which has met largely with failure; as a result, the large plantaton option has been completely abandoned at present The ODH sought to implement large per-urban plantations on land belonging to major landholders: this project was halted in 1987, mainly because of a lack of interest on the part of the landholders Moreover, the National Foraty Project (IDA Credit) included an enerV plantation pflot component, which was based on creation of planted perimeters at three sites (covering a total 350 ha) and on management of part of the Pins forest (for an area covering nearly 6,000 ha). Despite positive results with regard to sgthen the FRS and preparation of the second phase of the project, the results were relatively di nting for the pilot plantations, largely because of the lack of counterpart funds, negtive reactions from the rral population, and the influence of eal factors (climate, livestodc). Because of the lack of financial profitability of such plantations, the second phase of this project is therefore oriented towards agro-sylute formulas established at the level of nul communiies and mement of foresty resources. 1.49 The objective of the agroforesty approach is to promote various types of tree planting integrated into Haitian cultivation xprces. The AOP Project in the northwest of the country and the 'Pyebwa' Project which was ilemented by a network of more than 400 NGOs in the rest of the country, have been quite sucesful with very small-scale rural forestry projects. According to the BDPA, apprcAimately 8 million treesu have been planted annually as part of these projects over the past 10 years. Tnhere have been sevewal evaluatkos of the success rate for planting schemes of this tpe, with varying resulb - the trees' survival rate is 80% according to CARE, 33% accrding to a more rigoroui evaluation carried out by the Pyebwa Project, and between 50 and 60% accrding to other project evaluations. A realistic tree suvival rate after one year could be conidered 40%: thus about 3 mllion planted trees uvive each year. By comparing the cost of the AOP Project (US$ 3 million annually) and the other main proects aged in this type of planting with the number of surviving trees, the cost per suviving tree in these agroforestry plantatons is estimated at US$ 15 (however, some estimtes go as high as $10 per surviving tree). e * 19. Tnese fiWes only indude the cost of interational fore aid, and the cost of the land and the labor costs shoWd be added to obtain totad cost proved staves 150 Several small projects to dbitriute metal iWoved charcod stoves have been hunched in Hati, but only with vety limited results: (a) Between 1983 and 1988, the first National Forestry Project included a $90,000 component for distributing mproved stoves financed by the Canadian Center for International Research and Development (CIRD). This project, implemented by BME, conied of evaluation of eisting traditional cookstoves, development of adapted improved stoves (BMFB models) and trial dination in two small cities on the central plateau, Lascahobas and Beladere (30 stoves were distnbuted). (b) In 1989, the BME reeived asane from OLADE for a new pilot program to distribute nearly 600 portable cookstoves (BME model), with total financing of $15,000. A preliminary phase induded developing a working set for the craftsmen (tools, templates) and trainig a dozen craftsmen. Then, in association with two NGOs and with tecnical asitance from BIT for training, the BME opened three workshops in Port-au-Prince and reuited six craftsmen. Accordiug to xpected rel of the pilot program, an anticipated 7200 stoves - sufficient to sply about 5% of the households in the capital - wM be ditibuted by mid-1991, under additional financing of $15,000. (c) At the beginning of 1989, the French Associadon of Volunteers for Progress (AFVP) opened two training wrshops trgeted at the 'manje6 kwit market (small restaurants) and trained ten stoves craftsmen. The traiees began by producing a commercial line consisting of four model stoves of varying sizes (the BME model with feet): 500 stoves haoe been sold since September 1989, but mainly for domestic use. (d) Finally, some larger wood-fueled models were implemented in restaurants in public institutions, with the tecal assistance of the Renewable Energy Development Institute (REDI). 151 lhus, approwimatey US$ 120,000 has been invested in improved stoves (not counting the vaious msions by experts), and about 600 portable cooktoves acually have been d ted over the past 7 years. total may seem smal, but nonetheless there have been certain positi outcomes to these trials The most important of these is the design of a model adapted to the needs of more modest Haitian households. his model competes with the traditional round stove, which is used by 2/3 of a households. It has a ns ory efficiency (30% in theory, and about 25% in actual use - repesentig a 30% theoretic povement in efficiency over the traditional -20 - stove), and It appears to be well accepted by the consumers (reasonable level of sales by the AFVP, positive reacdons from groups during market testing caried out for the study). 1.52 Another Important outcome, obtained through the activities of BME and AFVP, is the result of comparisons of various methods for man ng the stoves and organizing their production and sales. The BME's approach was to employ three groups of two artisans and to manufacture the stoves out of sheets of new galvanized steel, for a net production cost of $7 (in fact the stoves are marketed for $5 to $6 a piece). The AFVP decided to use sheet metal raade from material recovered from drums and junked cars, and to let the artisans operate autonomously once they were trained. The sales pr'ce of the stoves thus constructed is $4 for the producer, $5 for the retailer. Given experiences with this type of project in other countries, the AFVP approach, which depends on the autonomous initiative of the craftsmen and an initial market penetration using low cost products (possible through use of rerycled manufcturig materials), seems preferable. However, if a shortage of recoverable material arises (likely to cause the price of recovered materials to increase), the use of new sheet metal would be necessaqy.2/ Besides, a demand for improved stoves constructed from new sheet metal is likely to exist already because of their superior durability or for aesthetic reasons. Substitution 153 Efforts to substitute other fuels for wood and chaoal namely kerosene and LPG, concern mainly the domesti. sector. A program also has been undertaken for small busineses and rumal enterprises, although with limited success. 1354 The domestic use of kerosene for cooking is relatively limited. No promotion progrms have been undertaken, especially by the Government, and thus there is only a limited but dynamic marketing of the product by the private sector (approximately 1500 stoves sold annually). One company, Haiti Mtal, manufactures and markets the stoves, which are sold for between $20 (one burner, no stand) and $43 (two burner with a stand). In 1989, this market totaled 1140 units, with more than 90% of the two burner modeL Other companies market stoves imported from Venezuela (Haiti Gaz) and from southeast Asia (Electrotostore, with 200 stoves sold in 1989). 1.55 With regard to the small businesses and industries, the former National Bank for Agricdultural and Industrial Development (NBAID), with assistance from the European Community), introduced a program to substitute wood with petroleum products Any company which wanted a loan had to switch to a fuel other than wood. About twenty bakeries switched to kerosene, and a few others to propane, under this plan. ZI The current price of new sheet metal appears excessive (sales price nearly double the CIF rice); nonetheless, given the experiences in other countries (Senegal, for example), allowing e metal workshops to directy import sheet metal in order to mass produce and sell improved stoves does not seem viable, as distribudon of the stoves (which is diffct to organze) certainly would cost more than the resuting savings on material costs. -21 - 156 .oane gaa Tropigaz inports propane, and distrbutes it along with another company, Haiti Gaz, in four sizes of bottles -5 kg (a vety linited number), 12.5 kg bottles (most of the market), 25 kg and 50 kg - and in bulk (1000 kg) for large companies. In 1989, Tropigaz came under the control of Shell Halti, when the Caribbean and Latin American operations of Tropigaz were acquired by ShelL 1.57 In 1986, Tropigaz made an inventory of its bottles, which numbered 66,000 in the 12.5 kg size and 25,000 in the 50 kg size. Taking into account all sales since 1986, equivalent estimates for 1990 would total 85,000 and a little less than 30,000 respectively. This averages out to about 2.1 bottles per user (assuming 50,000 propane consumers, of whom just under 80% reside In the capital). 1.58 Various local firms distribute imported cookers fueled by propane gas. The least expensive come from Latin America (the 'Llama azur from Venezuela, for example) and vary in price from $50 to $70. Given the purchase cost for a botde ($73A for a 12.5 kg bottle, without the pressure regulator), the minimal initial investment is $120 to $150, a very high cost for most urban households. Only several hundred cookers at the lower end of the scale (cooker without an oven) are sold annually. Tropipz also has commercial cookers for institutional restaurants and small food vendors (between $400 and $500, plus the regulator and the 50 kg bottle, ie. an initial investment of $550 to $800). 159 BnGazs, In March 1989, Shell began marketing the 'Bip Trcheri stove through the Sodipz company. Tis is a single burner butane cookstove which already is distributed in vanous West African countries. The stoves and containers are bought in France at ADO (Camping Gaz) and the stand is manufactured in Haiti Shell has received government support through a 'balance of payments assistance agreement", signed in October 1989, which allows it to import materials under an exchange rate of 5 Gourdes per dollar. The agreement provides a total _athorization of FF 30 million in 1990 (US$ 5.2 million) for importing botdes and stoves, renewable in subsequent year An initial authorization was granted in December 1989 (FF 1,655 million, or about $280,000) to import 14,000 units, followed by a second authorization of FF 3 milion (US$510,000) in May 1990 to import 25,000 units. If the 40% devaluation of the Gourde is taken into account, the subsidy accruing to the Bip program from the Haitian Government amounts to about US$300,000, equivalent to $8 pcr stove (see Table 1.10). C22 . labt 1.10: liP Price lmport Iport Excae 400 over- Price Price I for 5 valuatfon Ff U#$ SNaitfan Sa1tian Contafner 80 13.79 13.79 19.31 Burner 31 5.34 5.34 7.48 Custom and Ahilnist- retive ies 0. 1.07 Pot support 3.25 3.25 Stove support 4.00 4.00 Gas 2.12 2.12 Equipment cost 29.27 37.23 Wodiga sale price 2.23 -5.73 Sodigs margin 31.5 31.5 Retail prfee 37.5 37.5 Dfstribution mergin 6.00 6.00 Exchang rate: U181 a fF 5.8 S3urcsa SHELL HaNti, June 1990. 1.60 Promotion of butane has been vey sccessfiul: 32,400 portable stoves, 44,500 bottles and 640 tons of gas (311,000 gallons) were sold in 14 months (between March 1989 and April 1990). The rhythm of portable stove has slowed down in May 1990 (only 500 stoves sold, as compared to a previous average of 2000/month) for two main reasons, according to project promoters: the price incase for the stove from $29.S to $37.S in Feruy 1990, and also a cetain exhaustion of the market, which initially was sustained by purchases made by institutions and businesses for their employees. However, butane penetration started again in 1991 with a 10% increase in the sales of gas when comparing the first semesters of 1991 and 1990, and a 20% increase when comparing the firstiwo quarters of 1991. In addiion, Shell intends to introduce the 6 kg butane bottle on the market, which should lead to a further increase in gas sales 1.61 In the ioitial start-up phase, the company sold the stove-container combination to customers for a price $4 below its net cot at wholesale level lThis was done to promote the distribution of the product; the loss was recovered by iceing the margin on the sales of butane by $0.50 per galon This inflated margin (it is difficult to label it a cro subsidy in the absence of reguLation of gs pricing) was a shrewd marketing decision for the companies: currently, evaery sale of a portable stove provides a granteed market of about 18 gapons annually, based on an average of 12 recharges per month. ITI represents a profit of $9/year, more than twice the $4 lost on each stove sale. Access to a advantageous ehange rate in addition to the increased price of the Bip portale stove, now selling for $37.5, has allowed the company to balance its sales price. Sti, the price of butane remains at $3 per recharge. -23 - Legislation and Pricing Policy for Petroleum Products 1.62 The Haitian State sets the price of liquid petroleum products through its Petroleum Technical Committee, which consists of representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (through the BAPP), the Ministiy of Finance, the Central Bank, and the BME. The margins for kerosene (price at the pump) are negotiated between the State, the petroleum companies, and the National Association of Petroleum Product Distributors (ANADIP). In April 1990, the margins were set at about 20% for the companies and 5% for the distributors; they appear reasonable compared to countries with similar distribution networks. The companies receive a preferential exchange rate (5 Gourdes/US$1) when importing products, equivalent to a state subsidy of about 40% of the CIF value of the products. This preferential arrangement was only applied to LPG in January 1987; LPG is now imported at an echange rate of 5 to 1. 1.63 Kerosene had not been taxed for many years in order to promote its use in the productive sector (bakeries, for example). However, this has given rise to problems related to competition with diesel fuel (fraudulent distribution and usage of kerosene). In October 1985, new taxes were applied to kerosene, totalling nearly 35% of the -retail price. It should be noted, however, that in order to decrease the price to the consumers located in the provinces and in rural areas, kerosene is sold duty-free outside Port-au-Prince, in "yellow" gallon containers. The 50 cent/gallon value of detaxation pays in effect for the reusable empty container. About 500,000 glons are sold in this manner each year, equivalent to a litde less than 10% of the national consumption. 1.64 The prices of gas (propane and butane) are fixed by the two distribution companies, Shell for butane and Tropigaz (100% Shell owned) for propane, with formal notification given to the Ministry of Commerce. Tbis de facto monopoly in the gas market leads to cmulative margins for the petroleum company which seem to be high in relation with similar markets in other countries: in April 1990, the cumulative margins were 57% of the retail price of propane and 71% of the retail price for butane (47% for Shell Haiti and Sodigaz, and 24% for the retailer). The LPG tax was ended in March 1987. This decontrol and the drop in price, as well as the preferential exchange rate, accompanied by an intensive campaign launched by distributors, all incited a massive increase in gas sales (more than 75% since 1987), and in the sales of cooking equipment. .24u IL MAW ISSUES 2.1 Tbe main issues affecting the household energy sector in Haiti must be taken into account when developing a household energy strategy. These are: (a) the environmental impact of woodfuel utiliztion on forest resources; (b) the inpact on the balance of payments of encouraging the use of imported fuels as substitutes; (c) exsting distortions in the gas market; f(d) the essential role of charcoal production in the rural economy; (e) the weakness of the institutonal frameworL IMpact on Forest Resorce and th nvrnmn 2.2 lTe current estimate of forest resources drawn from available data (see para. 1.23) was established using projected growth rates for forest formations and wood consumption. Several fictors make this approach very imprecse and limit the etent to which the rate of deforestation can be evaluated: (a) there are only extremely fragmentary data on the growth of natural forest formations (the evaluation of yields from the secondary srub formations used in most charcoal production is based on unverifiable hypotheses in the current situation) and even on the growth of planted trees. (b) the impacts of reforestation using isolated trees or rural micro-plantation is not quantified; (c) the exact role of woodfuel consumption in the deforestation process within Haiti has not been identified clearly and quantitatively. hi is particularly the case for self consumption in rural households: it is difficut to quantify wood consumption in supply/demand balances when the source of this consumption is felled wood or wood gthered from the wastes of land clearings or tree pruning. -25 - (d) the impact of other phenomena such as the subdivision of agricultural plots Into small parcels, the increase in the culthation of food crops, and the reduction in cultivation of cash crop is difficult to evaluate and quantify.2/ 23 Although in certain cases environmental damage caused by intensive charcoal exploitation cao clearly be demonstrated, charcoal exploitation is only one of the causes, and probably not the principal one, of deforestation in Haiti Among other causes of deterioration of Haiti's environment are: (a) increased demographic pressure and its corollaries: the subdivision of agricultural plots, farming on lands not appropriate for agriculture; (b) poorly adapted and harmful agricultural techniques combined to extensive tree felling; (c) insecurity regarding land tenure discourages the use of cultivation practices which maintain soil fertility, and on the contrary encourages overexploitation of the land and discourages investments; (d) the lack of capital and income for the small peasants: they generally must fall back on subsistence farming of food crops, using very erosive production techniques, and have recourse to the production of charcoal as a complementary source of monetary income. 2.4 Degradation of the environment has immediately perceptible effects, especially with regard to erosion, loss of sediments, and decreased agricultural yields. Thus, overexloitation of the Haiti's ligneous potential does not constitute only a decapitaliation of available wood: It also ha secondary effects on erosion and alters local hydrology. 2.5 It is diffdcult to estimate the rate of deforestation in Haiti given the lack of recent data and reliable historical comparisons. Aocording to the BDPA study, the estimated forest cover (degraded ot dense broad leaf forests and pine forests) was only 220,000 hectares in 1988, amounting to less than 10% of the productive biomass surfaces and less than 30% of the wood capitaL ihe greater uncertainty surrounds evaluation of wood resources available from non-forest sources: shrub formations, tree crops, herbaceous crops, savamnas, etc - Le. 90% of the surfce concerned. lTe sensitivity to error for these projections is rather large (see Annex I): all other things being equal, if the 1978 figur represent an overestimate of 25%, the forest corer would 2, Furthermore, thesw phenomena can have opposite effecta For example, the reduction in the number of coffee plantations can deprve some areas of an important wood resource (pruned cuttings from coffee and ade trees or wood obtained from felling old plantations), whereas the subdiision of large parcels usuall increase the leDt of tree hedges which are also an important, and regular source of firewood and timber. -26. disappear entirey by 1992 (an event which, fortunately, seems unlikel); if on the other hand they were underestimated by 25%, there are suffient trees In Haiti to satisfy the firewood and charcoal needs for the not 20 years without jeopardizig renewal of the resource (independently of other causes of degradation of the resource). 2.6 It woud prove unfounded to question the consensus on deforestation in Haiti, or even to reject the conclusions concerning the gradual disppearine of resources. Yet it is unfortunate that the lack of reliable information on wood resources and on the impacts of firewood and carcoal consumpdon on deforestation makes it Impossble to precise design and measure interventions needed in this domain, especilely for charcoal substitution. There are serious economic constrits assocated with partially dismanling the national charcoal sector, as with incasig petroleum Imports; thus environmental jutification of such actions must be caref supported. 2.7 Experience with other projects - mainly those Implemented in West Afiica - proves that detded inmentories often provide data which is vey different from the first estimates of the resources condition and availabilty, pecia for the non-forest resources (isolated trees, wood from fallow land, wood from pruning) whih provide the core source of wood energy. This brings to fore the impotance and urgenc of undertking an inventory of wood resources, based on aeral photos and on-site crosachecks as planned under the IDA Forestry and Environmental Protection Project (probable start in 1992). 2.8 Nonetheless, it is clear that deforesdon in Haiti is an uncontestable reality, even if the scope of its causes and effects large exceeds the basic problem of wood energy supply and demand. Thus one of the fundamental objectives of an energy str for households is to slow the deforestation phenomenon by reducing the pressure caused by woodfuels cnumption. Impac on the Balanc of Pmayet of Promoting Petroleum Substitutes for Wood andChrl 2.9 The large enery plantations have encountered so many obstacles that this option basically has been abandoned in favor of the agroforestry approach. However, wi the latter be able to enure n of forest resources sufficient for preserving the national forest endowment? Under the current assumptions about the resouce, it appears doubful: the current rhythm of agroforestry tree planig, already quite sutained, would have to be multiplied by a factor of 7 or 8 in order to obtain nearly 23 mllon suriing pts each year (see figures in Annex I). This efst woul cost at$30 million pe year, based on the current costs of such 2.10 husactiowhich target on i of woodfuils, essentially in urban areas would be needed: eneg cetion, substituion by petrolm fuels Under the same asmpzaons as cited above, a drastic reduction charcoal cn o would be needed to prevent the obliteration of Hatian fores resources. Even if charcoal conmption were cut in half by 2000 - .a c ae task - with continued reduction effrtsfte 2000, this would only delay the -27- theoretic disappearance of the forest by about 15 yeas In order for the resource to be maintained in its current state, an almost complete termination of charcoal consumption in the capital and main cities of Haiti within the neot ten years would be needed (Annex I). Therefore it is clear that interventions are needed not only to conserve dharcoal but also to substitute it. 2.11 It is possible to estimate the impact on the trade balance in terms of imported gas or kerosene at current CIF prices if petroleum fuels were to be substituted for an equivalent level of charcoal conCmption/ Consumption of charcoal in Port-au-Prince is estimated at 200,000 tons (consumption by households and the small productive sector) in 1990, and at 100,000 additional tons in other urban areas. The annual cost to the country of importing gas or kerosene in quantities the equivalent of the current urban consumption of 300,000 tons of charcoal would amount to about US$35 million (with theoretic CIF prices, see Table 32), equivalent to about 25% of Haiti's export receipts in 1990. Thus promotion of charcoal substitution potentially could be a very costly solution for the country, and would only be justified if charcoal exploitation presented an irrevemrble threat to the environment. lAe aitin On Maret A Diso4d Situation 2.12 Gas imports and most of gas marketing in Haiti - for both propane and butane - - are carried out by Shell and its various subsidiaries (Sodigaz, Tropigaz). Although other petroleum companies appeared interested in this market, they have not epicitly voiced their interest, probably because of the country's difficut political situation. The de facto monopoly ierited by Shel presents several problems for the country and constitutes a major handicap to the development of gas as a substitute for charcoaL 2.13 One of these problems is the current storage capacity. In the case of propane, it is extremely limited: a Lttle less than 15 days of storage, which often leads to depletion of stocks. Because storage is linited, delveries must be made in small quantities, at considerable transport costs which burden the product's CIF price (in 1990, the transport cot practically as much as the gs). In fact, although the Haitian Government has invested in storage for other strategic products such as diesel and fuel oil, it has no sewrity stock facilities for as. Nor do the petroleum companies plan in the short term to invest in new storage or new bottling facilities. 2.14 The main problem involves the establishment of gas prices (see paragraph 3.46 for more details). In a monopoly sktuaion and in the absence of state regulation, the margins estabshed by the companies seem to be vety high: between 60% and 70% of the retail price, split between the Importers and the distributors. By compaison, the combined margins for gas in a Q/ Taking into account the fuels calorific values and the effciencies of related stoves, it is estimated that 1 kilo of kerosene is equivalent to about 3 kg of chacoal, and I kg of gas is equivalent to 3.7 kg of charcoaAt current CF prices (repectively 0.68 and 0.77 Gourdes per gallon), kerosene or gas rts to substitute for dharcoal would contribute a nearly identical weigt to the trade balance. -28-. number of countries rarely represent more than 30% of the sales price, even in cases where the markets are very limited (West Africa, for instance). In the case of a landlocked country such as Burkina Faso, which has a very small market (nearly 800 tons, versus 7000 tons in Haiti) and where gas is transported by road from the coast for a distance of more than 1000 kilometers, butane gas taxed at a rate of more than 20% sold for about US$ 1/kg in 1989. This is equivalent to the untaxed retail price of the butane sold along Haiti's coast. 2.15 Throughout many countries, the State used taxes and perequation to absorb the much of the profit produced by the drop in international oil prices (up to August 1990). In the case of Haiti, however, it was the importer who apparently benefitted most.4/ This distorted situation is not a fact which can be separated from the analysis of the sector, as it has direct implications for the problems of comparing costs of household fuels and on taxation of petroleum products. Charcoal Production: An Essential Economic Activit for Rural Areas 2.16 Tlree important factors characterize HaitPs rural milieu: (a) increasing demographic pressure on agricultural lands, due to increases in the popWulation density from 300 to 400 inhabitants/km2 between 1965 and 1985 (whereas in some areas, estate lands and large agricultural domains have been abandoned), (b) a decrese in the size of cultivated land parcels: the percentage of cultivated parcels measuring one "carreau" (1.29 ha) or less increased from 40 % to 70% between 1950 and 1971, when the last agricultural census was taken, (c) a decrease in the value added of agriculture per unit from $185 in 1965 to $172 in 1985 (1976 constant prices), a decrease which undoubtedly has intensified in the last year 2.17 In a situation like this, any energy strategy which has as an objective the reduction charcoal production activities must take into account the economic importarce of this activity in rural areas and the social repercussions which could be brought about due to the loss of income for some producers. Annual revenues in the charcoal sector amount to about $50 million, more than in the electricity sector, more than half those of the petroleum sector and about one third the industrial value added in HaitL This also represents an annual injection of $15 million by the urban consumers into Haiti's rural economy (at the level of production and of rural marketing of charcoal). A/ Under current conditions, with few investments and a quite precarious supply system, the small propane market in Haiti provides almost as much margin to the petroleum company and the related distributors as the combined propane sales provide to the different importrs and distributors operating in the Dominican Republic, which has a market 12 times as lre (about 100,000 tons/year). -29 - 2.18 In terms of employment, it is estimated that more than 150,000 people are Involved in charcoal supply from rural production up to retafl marketing; at least 67,000 of these are charcoal producers J/. Charcoal production is an income source for a large number of urban distributors: for the small neighborhood retailer, charcoal marketing constiutes a non-negligible complementary income source, and for certain wholesalers and transporters the income generated is substantiaL 2.19 Charcoal production also has become a crucial source of income for the economic su"ival of some areas which are especially disadvantaged, and more and more, for a substantial portion of HaitPs rural areas. The subdivision of farm land, the eradication of pig husbandry, the abandonment of coffee cultivation in favor of food crops are all factors which encourage the peasant to turn towards one of the few activities from which monetary income is assured: charcoal production. 2.20 In the district of Anse Rouge, one of the areas in which charcoal production has long ben established, the forestry servc estimate that there are 4000 charcoal producers and 2000 merchants (there often is overlap between the two activities). Most of the rural households and a large number of the urban households in that district are engaged in producing and marketing charcoal which, along with salt production, is the only possible activity. In other dtricts of the Artibonite or in the north of the country, swh as Saint Mkbel rAttalaye or Dondon, between 50% and 80% of the active mral population is engaged in carcoal production, and in other areas with better agricultural possibilities (northeast, southwest), between 20% and 30% of the popuation. 2.21 According to surveys of charcoal producers in the Artibonite and in the northwest of the country, crcoal income has become more important to the peasant than agricultural revenues (even though it is not possible to preciely estimate the very variable ratio between income from the two activities). In similar surveys underaken in the south of the country, the money from charcoa generally only appears as an occasional source of income, emcept during drought periods. It is sinfit that this activity, geneay the work of small peasants (as is still the cise in the south) now is done in the north by medium and large peasants Mhis appropriation of charcoal production and marketing activities by the local petit4bourgeoisie (perons of influence, merchants) in the Artibonite and in the north of the country occurs at all levels, indluding charcoal collection and ransport to consumption centers, whereas these activities are carried out by peasants in the south. 0/ EEstimate obtained by dividing the total charcoal consumption by the average estimatd production of a single charcoal producer. .30 - 2.22 The efficency of the Haitian private sector varies aording to the pnts The private sector has proven quite cesfl in case of charcoal marketing, which functions in a satlsactoy manner witLout large nvestents, and also in the case of butane promotion, which in three months had achieved its initial objectives for dissemination. Its efficen has been less obvious in the case of kerosene; its promotion as a cooking fuel has not been sucesL In most cases the private sector has adequately fulied its role: the responsbit for distributing fuels and cookstoves is incumbent upon the private sector alone, with the as of and under the regulation of public authorities. 2.23 Various indicators Mustrate the specific instutiona difficulties in Haiti, and above al the budgetay constraints faced by Haitian institutions. In order to operate satiactorily, a central admiistration should have a central operating budget (minus sabies) equivalent to about half the total salarieL However, the 1988 operating budget for the central adminition was situated at only one third of normal needs The two mistries Involved in the different aspects of the enery sector, the MARNDR (spervising miisty for the forestry sector) and the Ministry of Public Works, Trnsport and Communications (supevisng ministry for the eneru sector) fnd themselves in partularly critical conditions: these two miistries were forced to operate in 1987/88 with expendituretalicatons equivalent respectiv*elyto only 10% and 12 % of their actual operating needs; while the BME, with a 7% ratio between operating expenses and salaries, was ganted ony 20% of its budgetary needs to work with. 2.24 Withoutfundstofinanceopatingand maexpendituresthe adminttion canot operate nrmally. The limited impact of various laws implemented in the enerD sector (sch as the requirement that busiesses switch from wood to other fues), the lack of ordination between the various projects, the delays and the negligible resl acbieved in implementin progams in the past (such as the projects to dbitrbute improved stves), are eamples of this. 225 A substantial number of actvities financed by international aid tend to bypass public authorites, preferring the efficency of local orgaons, in paricular the dick network of NOOs (minimum of 400) operatng throughout HaitTi solutio, which is very advantageous for short. term and quick interventions and actives, gives rise to a cetain number of prbems when a long- term pepective is taken: dispersion of efforts, uncoordinated approaches, duplication of interventions, and difficulties with supeOvisiov, etc. 2.26 Because of these prbems, the goenment should make a renwed effort to fulfil its mandate by defning the directions and coodintin the actions taken for household enerV. }iven the weak Insituonal framework, it thus woud be necessa to the extent posible: (a) to concentrate stratelD on a small number of components, to avoid dispersion of public intervention on minor topics; - 31 . (b) to take into account the currnt wealmess of internmtion means and plan for necesay strengthening of institutions (adequate coordination betwee the government and NGOs) and of logistics p=oWoof a Household ESn=rySta 2.27 Whatever the degree of reliability in the information on the resource and on its evolution, the preceding paragraphs showed that none of the planned solutions up to the present - forestry plantations, improved stoves, substitution fuels - would be able to provide in and of itself the solution to the problems of degradation of woodfuel resource 2.28 The choice with regrd to plantin&g man*ging edsting foest resources, conditions related to its exploitation, and Als to reducing specific consUp by the various wood and dwacoal conumers and substitution with other fuels all appear comple and interdependent. It thus i necessar to Incrporate al these items into a coordinted action progam, which fuly takes into account the various aspects, energy and forestry related, economic and sociaL Thus an energy strategy for the sector must be defined and implemented which smultaneously addresses the following needs (a) to decrease the pressure on Haitian forestry resources, and more generally on the environment, aused by woodfuel consmption (b) to supply at least cost stoves and energy fuel adapted to the needs and finanial means of different categories of consumers; (c) to improve the efficiency of production, distribution and utilization of household fus; (d) to presenre the interest of rurl woodfuleb produces, eseiaBy those for whom charcoal production is a main economic activity, by allowing them to ezercse their activit in a more efficient framework or by asuring their reconversion. 229 Analysi of the situation all several guiding priciples of the stategy to be defined, which are the following: (a) take into account the dcaraci of household energy demand; the strategy should be based on analysis of the actual market for fuds and stoves, take into account consumer preferences and financial means in order to define solutions which are diversified and adapted to their needs. 32- (b) define a pricing pohcy whih reflects the economic costs of supply and distribution of household fuels, in a least cost approach for the country; (c) gradually restore the financial balance of the sector through eliminadng exdsting distortions. Tbrough the means of preferential exange rates, the Haitian economy wbsidizes petroleum fuels and, since recently, portable gas stoves. In addition, under current pricing conditions for woodfuels, the smallholder owners of wood covered areas subsidize the price of charcoal to the benefit of the urban consumer by selling wood at a price generally lower than replacement costs: this is possible at the cost of forestry resource-mining production techniques, which induce degradation of the environment and of the rural economy in the medium term. (d) improve fiscal revenues from household fuels; this would allow at least partial self finaneing of investments in the energy sector. In fact, neither the current tax sucture, nor the existing methods and effciency to collect taxes are sufficient for the State to have resources to invest in improvements for enery supply and consumption. (e) focus interventions on a small number of essential themes: the importance of certain priority action themes, the urgency of an intervention at a large enough level and the difficulty of undertaking multiple interventions in the cufrent institutional context al incite to limitating the of strategy to some major components. (f) take advantage of all relevant organizations present in Haiti (NGOs, communal sections, institutions, associations) as co-implementors of the various strategy components. *33 - IL THE STRATEGY 3.1 In countries like Haiti where woodfuels consumption is dominant, a household energy strategy generally should be centered on two principal axes: (a) interventions on woodfuel supply-side: improved production and marketing of wood and especialy charcoal; (b) interventions on fuel demand-side, mainly through (i) substituting wood and charcoal with other fuels, especially petroleum products; (ii) improving conditions for using wood and charcoal, in particular by the distribution of more efficient energy products. A. intr n on Woodfuel u 3.2 In order to define the options for supply-side intervention, the present economic situation of charcoal exploitation must be analyzed. Tlis anabsis demonstrates the need for complementarity between demand-based and dharcoal supply-based strategies, and allows the resources and actions needed to modernize the charcoal sector to be defined. Current_Eonomic Situation of Charcoal EDotto 3.3 The evolution of real charcoal prices can be examined using a relatively long timeseries (dating from 1953 to the present) whih was compiled by the IHSI as part of its price index series. Use of this type of statisical abstract, where charcoal is included in a basket of commodities, generaly does not yield themost reliable gauge, because measures of charcoal price relative to weight are not accurate and are generally made with a small sample. Nonetheless, this abstact undoubtedly is one of the better sets of timeseries data available in Haiti. hree principal periods of evolution are evident from the data (see Figure 3.1): (a) during the first period, up to 1967 (the year when cyclone Cl6o struck), charcoal prices decreased in real tems, (b) during the second period, from 1967 to 1985, charcoal prices rose rapidly, (c) during the third period, from 1987 to the present, charcoal prices grew more slowly. .34 - 3.4 Svera eplanations are possile, for these successive trends. The relative drop in real charcoal prices from 1950 to 1967 undoubtedly is due to the relative abundance of wood during that time. In addion, the 1960swere puntae by a m n of cycloes (Flora in 1963, Inbs in 1966, and the strgaet Cl6o In 1967) during ih substantial quantities of wood were felled, thus providing 'cost-free materials to produce charcoal inepenively for the urban population. Fig=-.t1: CheroosL Prie - 1953 * 1990 TreOd 25 20 3.5 T'he opposite tendenc of prices after 1967 can be explained by the evolution of the resource supply: relatively abJundant befor 1967, wood became increasing scarc in subseqent years Thec development of major and secondaiy roadways in the north and south at the beginning of the 1970s opeed Hatis rural areas to the modern economy, temporarily producing a oownward effect on prices However other facor once agdai contriuted upward pressure,on prices, including inceased tranporttion coss and the progressively spreading practic by local authorities of Ilegally collecting part of the costs of charcoal transport and marketing. 3.6 The recet slowdown in the growth of real charcoal Prices can be explained by. (a) at the. demand level ieased competitio from new fuel. he threshold at which petroleum afels become competitive with wood-based fuels has been surpassed: in tems of useful ceerv, prpane s and kerosene have become less aPeeive than charcoal (see para 3.42 to 3.45). 0 3S - (b) veral factors on the supply side which are the more likly deteants In the downward pressu on charcoal price hyq incude: (1) the retiv dease In rural Icomes, and thus the decrase in the opportunity cost of pessantlabor, (I) and in partkula, from 1986 onwards, the susension of loca controls on fores aploon, which prompted the spread of :charoal production throughoui the country. 3.7 None of the price evolutions produced benefits for charcoal producers; in fact the contrary is true. The produceres dsare of the rtal carcod prie has decrased coniuous for the past ten years (see Figure 32). Charol price i pdmarly have been due to inreasing intermediaiy costs; the producer price has rmained ontant. Ibis means that the produces acu income has dropped, If the newly-recogized fact of inasin g monetazy value of the wood used for charcoal prodtion Is taken Into accomt. Elta 3s2 Prodwwr's Swa of CharAoml Price 1979 - 1990 Tred 3. 960 0.ad.13 be be RetaLl price Iso Producer's share 10 acM ..Uw v vo _ Producer price 5 1Gm 0, a SonI sa C) 64 .6 5 5 7 * a- e a 3i8 in fact, the time when charod production was based primarily on aoess to a ree rource is essnt past Neady 60% of caol produer opeating on land other dt their own buy the wood used for ion, ther thro diect purchamses or, more frequently due to insficiet cash flow, by spttig the charcool sales pdce with the wood suppl In the case whe wood is purhased directly, the producer pays an erage of 3 to 3.5 Gourdes for the quantity needed to produce one bag of charcoal, equvalent to 1$ 2/m' or HS3/ton of wood (suming a -36. weighted carbonization efficiency of V0%). When the charcoal price is shared, the split most often is 40% to 50% for the wood supplier (about 4 Gourdes per bag) and 50% to 60% for the charcoal producer: in this case, the equivalent price of wood for the producer is nearly H$ 3/rn or H$ 4/ton. 3.9 Thus the 1990 price of wood used for carbonization is less than half the cost of planting wood, estimated by FAO at US$5.4/m3 or US$7.7/ton for the larger plantations. Another comparison to be made is with the present costs of planting trees under agroforestry projects: each surviving tree costs about US$1.5 and annually yields - independent of the environmental benefits to the rural economy of planting trees - about 3 US cents (based on productivity of 10 kg/year, calculated in terms of current prices of wood used in carbonization). Finaly, these figures can be compared with the estimated environmental costs of deforestation - namely loss of sediments, reduced soil productivity, and erosion (see Annex XII) - which in Haiti are about US$ 23/ton of wood (Hosier and Bernstein, 1989). 3.10 The fact that a monetary value has been attached to wood used in charcoal exploitation indicates an ongoing transition in the perception of deforestation in Hat Whereas deforestation previously was noted only by specialists, its impacts now directly affect the wood consuming population. However, the cost of wood is yet not enough to induce rational exploitation of wood resources or even the development of a specific economic rent associated with wood planting. Replanting efforts must be pursued, but in strictly financial terms, they are not profitable at present. Based on the FAO cost estimates, planting wood could be profitable if producer costs more than double to 18 Gourdes/m3 (split 6 Gourdes for the charcoal producer and 12 Gourdes to the wood supplier). lhis would imply a 20% increase in urban retail prices, which is acceptable if less expensive fuel alternatives also are available to consumers. Petroleum fuels already provide less costly alternatives for households able to invest at least $30 or $40 for a portable cookstove. In addition, the recommended improved stoves program would permit consumers to save up to 20% on fuel expenditures for a modest initial investment of only $4 to $5. 3.11 The evolution of charcoal prices presents a basic problem with regard to which stratey should be adopted. The strategies to be considered can be described in terms of two extremely different options, both of which carny strong potential environmental risks: (a) The first option is to retain the current policy: let charcoal consumption increase at its natural pace. Resource shortages gradualy will induce the cost of wood to rise until the associated economic rent develops. When the fact that Hait's environmental deterioration is due to multiple causes - not just wood offtake for dharcoal production - is taken into account, planting and cultivating trees for energy use becomes then another means of envionmental preservation, just as with the cultivation of coffee and banana plantations in other countries. However, will the environmental damage caused in the meantime not be irreversible? a 37 - (b) Another option is to forego supply-side Intervention and focus strategy on substitution and energy conservation. The induced decrease in cacoal consumption would diminish the pressure of wood offtake on forest resources. However the policy of intervening only on the demand-side also carries certain risks: a downward pressure will develop on charcoal prices, and subsequently on the cost of wood. This wil tend to perpetuate the 'mining character of urrent forestry practices, in which the resource is exploited without concern for its renewability. 3.12 These considerations emphasizes the ned for a global strategy of intervention Incorporating both energy and forestry aspects: (a) demand-side interventions to induce energy substitudon and energy conservation; (b) supply-side interventions to establish conditions which wmi render wood and charcoal prices more ecpensive, namely through rational exploitation of wood resources due to a modernized charcoal sector. ModMrnM nthe Cbarcoal Sector 3.13 Intervendons on the conditions of charcoal marketing and production must be a princpal element of the strategy. This will convert exploitation of forestry resources from its present 'ming model into a cohesive system for rationally managing a renewable national resource. Two important factors which would hinder development of a tidonalized system must be taken into account: (a) Instiutional weaknesses in the sviso of the sector, and the foreseeable dulties this superviing entity wSil have when attempting to implement required improvements; (b) the lack of any systematic study of the charcoal sector, its role in the peasant economy, and its impacts on the environment in each exploitation zone. 3.14 These constraints shape and color to a large etent the contents and organation of supply-side intervention. As a result, it is recommended that a specialized, autonomously managed and financed unit tempoariny be establshed within the MARNDR Tbis unit would be responsible for analzing the different aspects of charcoal exploitation (including the conditions for enforcig laws and fiscal policy) and for coordinating and Wpvising the projects and programs to modemize the uharcoal sector. .38. 3.15 The unit's operaions wil be developed In coordination with and as a complement to actions undertaken within the framework of the new Foresty and Envionmental Protection Project §/, on the three following priority themes: (a) geographic reorientation of dcarcoal offtake; (b) moderiation of the suply network; (c) better colection of taxe on charcoal gioophicReorienationl of Charco Of ake 3.16 Restraining the conditions of charcoal supply i one of the key solutions to induce an increase in the price of charcoal, and especlly in the price of wood used for abonizAtion. Undoubtedy, it is urealistic to pe a total ban on charcoal production in some areas. Nonetheless, it is possible to consain charcoal sipments from these areas to the urban markets: in oertain zones, maximum quotas, reguated by local officials, would be allocated resticting the quantities of charcoal which coud be tmnorted to Port-au-Prince and the other main cities Effective application of the quotas will depend an the compliance of local authorities; it should be noted that in some areas, these vety authorities already have Implemened similar measures, usualy by defining exit quotas for charcoal from ther districts. Tis is the case in the Hinche and Grande Ae distcts, where local meaures consitent with those proposed for nationa application have been adopted due to iniatives by locd authoritiea 3.17 In order to assure effective implementation of the measures recommended, it is important that any quota policy, whic necsry would penalize some charcoal production zones, be negotiated on the locl level and in particular with the affected charco producers. It may be necsar to include the producers in a sort of compensaton progam, where specific priority progams are introduced to mitigte the impacts on dcaol producing families In ares affected by the quotas 3.18 Restriction of charcoal production is vey much needed, and quik. Areas of the country whih would be affected by these restricons inude: ~/ The FEPP wil include the following components: (a) itiutioal srengthening for the MARNDR, iud impements to the tax regime for woodfuels; (b) s foy and emental prra, includg m ent of the Resrw Pine Forest (28,000 ha) and an inventory of national forest resources; and (c) promotion ofimproved coal stoves by the BML Thetotamount of the DAcredt is USS 25.9 mllion;theproject is lated to bege in 1992. -39- (a) in order of priority, new production zones where the activity orly recently - and chaoticaly - has been established; (b) more established production zones where aflted forestry exploitation has caused Significant damage. 3.19 The new production zones would be targeted first: as charcoal eploitation has not yet become ingrained in the local peasant economy of these aress (and thus they can more easi absorb the loss in income from chwal production), this wi facilitate implementation of a quota policy and limit its impacL While it is difficult to generalie, the 'ones to be tareted for the most part; would include the Central Plateau, thfe Orande Anse and more generaly the southwest peninsula and the southeastern part of the country, as well as the older supply zone in the South. These areas cumulatively already represent 30% of Port-au-Prince's current charcoal consumption (see Figure 3.3). The main areas from whih charcoal should continue to be supplied to Port-au-Prince thus would be linited: the nort the northwe the Artibonite, the west and Gonave Island, whh rrently provide 70% of the chdcoal s in Port-au-Prince. V 3.20 In the zones which would come under suqp quotas, charcoal prodution conditions can be summarized as follows: there are in total about 24,000 part-time chaoal producer usually smal peasants, who make charcoal only a few months out of the year. The income received from charcoal is considered secondary contingency income, complementar to agricultural incomes: less than $100 annually, or less than half the average monetay income from agriculture in these areas (more than $200). 321 Based on what is known regarding the local supply networks, deprivg these areas of the Port-au-Prince market would cause unemployment of about 15,000 to 20,000 charcoal producers maximum and an overal lo of income amounting to 10 milion Gourdes This is a far from negible loss, whether observed from the ma m level of the affected provinces or from the macroeoonomic level of the peant. Actual impacts at disrict level should be analyed on a case by case basis, in order to' determine the full extent of negative effects on the local economy and the means by which these effects can be mitigated. 3.22 To be succesl, implementation of the planned quotas must first be technical feasible. Although it Is impossible to ban complete production in certain zones (Haiti's history of forestry mgemet is ch with iapplicable decrees), technally it should be possile if not to prevent, at least to definitely hinder iLicit shipments of charcoal coming from the prohibited zones Thi would be possible by limiting droal dt on major road axes (the roads to 1/ Once a charcoal supply master plan is establisbed for Port-au-Pice (see parapphs 4.26 and.4 productpon capacity of each zone would be detemined mn terms of maximum quantity of wood and charcod that could be produced each year, according to the char of wood resource base in these zones. -40- .fLt2 3u3: Nun Characterfstcs of Charcotl ProdastIon NORrH WES+ ANSE ROUGE 10,000 charcoalers (10*) NORTH + NORlTH WST Main actvity 1000 charalers %) 1 Wood scarcity Scoardy a dW Small Wlos Wood abundance _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~~~~L rgokilas ARTMONITZ CENTRE 10,000 csol.rs (15%) 100 ehlwn h) Sdaq actit Secondary acti(ity .____________um_sd __ . Modum-sizd kilos GONAVE 3,000 cbarcoslems (4%) Small kilns . 19000 dacoa.ss (30%) GRANDE ANSE I SOUTH EAST 10,000 charcoaers (15%) 2,00 charcoals () Secndary activity Secondary activiq Medlum/small.l:ed kDns ' | ~~SOUTH _ 1 500 charcoaleen (IS%) Semndnry activity I7W CHARCO.LRS IN HM Source:Charcoal volumes count; Transporters' uveys; Field surveys ESMA/BME/OLADE/UNDP 1990 Uoga, Miramgane, Kenscoff, and to the east of Gondves, and the road to St Michel de rAttalaye) and inceasing control of charcoal tnsported by boat. 323 Technical feasibility of the quota proposal is not the only condition for its success; neither the ability of the local people to adapt to reguladons which are contrary to their interests, nor the possib2ies of overriding control mechnisms through Micit agreements, should be underesmated. Implementadon of the quota system necesarily must be a anied by a colaborative effort with the main local authorities in the affected zones - representatives of the State and of the local commues,the NOs, andsedalis worldg in the fied - to define and negtiate at the local level the means by which income loses caused by limiting access to the charcoal markets of Port-au-Prnce can be compensated. 3.24 Compensation most likely would take the form of a priority action program tareting the peants most affected by the restried charcoal markets. The modalities of this program should be defined at the locl leveL and could take various forms, based on local priorities. In some areas, charcoal revenues are linked with the cost of schooling (supplies, enrolment fees), which - 41 - could be reduced; elsewhere compensation could take the form of assistance for reviving pig husbandry; elsewhere still programs to commercialize wood products, especially those from the wood of fuit trees, would be appropriate. These actions are for the most part outside the scope of an enerv strate&y and, once defined, should be implemented within the framework of eisting or future rural development programs. 3.25 Consolidated financing for such a program at the national level could be assured in part by the Haitian government, but mainly by a group of institutional or non-governmental lenders. Also, some proposed actions easily could be included in social action programs such as the future Economic and Social Fund. Takdng into account the overall estimated loss of revenues by charcoal producers, the total cost of a rural development program nf this type could range from US$ 3 to 5 million over a three year period. This program would be implemented by rural organizations already operating in the affected zones as soon as the restrictions on charl marketing or even a total restriction of wood offtake in some zones, are effectively in place and operational. Modeization of %SWbL Netwo 3.26 In the zones which would continue to supply Chaoal to the capital (see para. 3.18), the situation wil be the opposite of that described above: charcoal marketing will inject additional economic resources into the supply provinces (in amounts at least equivalent to the losse in the quota zones, and probably greater, since limiting the exploitation zones should make producer prices rise), but at the cost of concentrating and increasing within a smaller area the pressure on forestry resources due to charcoal exploitation. 3.27 The objectives of the project components for charcoal conservation and substitution, described in Section B, are to decrease this pressure. However, the problem also can be addressed partialy by improving the eisting conditions for charcoal production. In the older, more esablished production zones, such as Anse Rouge for example, charcoal exploitation has developed sort of professionalism: the activity provides regular employment with incomes of over $150/year, exceeding agicultural incomes in areas with weak cultivation potential. In these areas, many medium-scale peasants are employed by this activity, which in other areas is reserved for small peasants The proposed strategy should benefit from this exsting professionalism, which manifests itself in carbonization practices which are less destmrtive to local foresty resources. The professional nature of charcoal exloitation in the traditional production zones not only provides a guarantee of efficiency, but equally helps improve availability of wood for carbonization (through better management of existing resources). 3.28 In other zones (especaly in the areas targeted for quotas, but also in certain areas where production is strongly established), charcoal exploitation is still relatively new and has not yet damaged the local resources. Although newly established producers in these areas have the opportunity to use better quality wood, their carbonization methods are stfll far from below on par with those of the producers in the more established areas. Pre-drying wood ("d6gorg6') is used only -42- by a minority of the producers In the area (30%), those precise who are orglnary from a traditional charcoal producdon srea. The more recently a producer has ventured into charcoal eploitation, the less efficient are his techniques for stcking wood in the kilns ("boatr kIlns or "parasol" kilns, the Hakian equivalent of the Camance kiln used in Senegal) and carbonization. 3.29 However, it is clear that among its profesdonal charcoal producers, Haiti possesses an incontestable prowess in charcoal making: the weighted yields obtained from kilns in established charcoal producing areas, about 20% (measurements by USAID, 1976 and by the BME in 1985 and 1990), are among the best in the world, and are altogether comparable to those obtained with metal and brick ovens. It is necessaq to make good use of this charcoal-making tradition and to help it spread throughout the areas concerned: (a) by finding now operating areas for the eperienced charcoal makers who operate in areas where resources are near exhaustion; (b) by training qualified charcoal producs in the new production areas; (c) by finding means to supply qualified producers with wood suffident for their production needs, while taking into account enironmental concerns. 3.30 The objective is to arrive eventually to a point where qualifed charcoal maldng consiutes a real profeson (such is the case in the more established traditional production zones). Peasants thus would benefit more from supplying wood for carboniation to the professionals, rather than carbonizing it themselves. To a cain extent this is the current situation: about one third of the charcoal produoers surveyed operate on their own land, whereas more than half purchae wood or split the price of charcoal made with wood obtained from small landholders (see Table on page 12 of Annex X). 331 The system for taxing wood and charcoal must be improved so that the woodfuels susctor itsef can partialy finance its rationaliation and modernization by contributing sgnifiantly (which is not yet the case) to the operting costs of a forestry service responsible for managing the susctorand by flanciq share of the public investments in the suictor. The amount of the charcoal tax does not need to be inrased in the short term, but rather the eisting sytem must be improved: (a) by simplifting the system of olaecting and transerring funds; (b) by pursuing improved control, including a better rate of charcoal tax collection. 43. 332 e curret ymof local, decenraied ta ollcton by local MARNDR agents generaBy Is a good stem; tax colection at the enrance to the cities would be more problmatic (greae ri of attacks on the posts, etc.) Some Iproaements arepoile nonethele at two levels: the actual oecion of the taz, and the trN ad reallocaton of funds. The mprvements would be depged to avoid eflGoes handln and movements of fuads, whih cum tly are eas subject to bu tic hasdes and ow ent. 333 It woud be preferabe to reliee the foresy agents of their ta ollecting duties and to rasi this ribl to a fisc agent, namely the local ta colletr for the Miny of Finance. Subeque, collecti of charcod taos should be tranfered to payer4aents In local villages (village tax collectors), as provided for in the 1987 COn 334 In fct, it would be a good idea to evenuy pas a local tax statute for chroal, for three main reasons: (a) The dEffd of colldonwll be propordonal to the share of the tax receipts which directly benefitthe local b for co g it (b) lhe systm of having the district taxes on foresty opeaons sent to the capital, then returned to the ditict level (though not alw the same distict) is very difficut to mang under current uanes (c) A locd ta system wM allow the devWopment of a differential tax wsstem based on loal conditions of wood resource avaiablt and maa 335 A porin of the ta renues shoud go to the Forestry Fund (the current Specal Fund for R r to fina Foresy Services actiies, and the remdaing funds cod be used by the local authorities for local proriies, epiay t c i ostation and environmental ptectio Periodic dicsons betwe the contral and local authorities, (e.g., with the boards of communal secdto) could be held concering use of thes funds, with the festry uthority resering the sevior rights to adtvities and brigin its own technical to the us of ths funds. 3.36 Curent dets to Improve the control of charcoal supply shoud concentrate on strengthening the oetios at egsting control posts: repaing some pos (in particular the one sdated at the wharf of the Cits Sole); trin ag at the fotry asged to ool duties; the Implemettion a dmple computizwd sstem forlecting and trating data. Additionlly, some s m control post wil need to be set up, in p lar at Port-au-Prine, at Gonais and at Cap Haiti -44 - B., Demand-Side Intjventio= 337 The supplymside interventions for wood and charcoal are inseparable from demand- side interventions - those to introduce and promote suN.ttution fuels and more efficient equipment The approaches used in the demand-side intervention, which constitutes the second axis of the strategy, are determined in large part by two related factors: (a) the economic conditions of substituting for wood and cacoal (b) the fuel and stove markets. Eomnomic Conditions for Charcoal Substitdon 338 Competition among the three main fuels - charcoal, kerosene and gas - must be analyzed on three levels of comparison. Tley are the following: (a) the "financial cost of the fue the cost of fuel at the fnal uses level, a cost whkh wil depend on the retail price, the fuels calorific value, and the cost and efficiency of associated stoves. (b) the current econonic cos of the fuel the cost to the national economy, excluding taes, ewbange differentials, subsidies, and all artficial mecanisms which modify the fuel price. (c) the theoretic economic cost? of the fuel the cost of the fuel under the hypothesis that measures would be taken to improve the spply and distrbution sysems, and that the evolution of the demand would entail variations of supply costs. Coaraitve Ie Prides 3.39 The evolution of the costs of cooking with charcoa (purdcased by the bag) and with. tbree competing petroleum fuels - propane, butane and kerosene (cost at the pump or bulk price) - - are given in Figure 3.4 for Port-au-Prince. The costs of associated stoves are not included in these calculations Ehe figure illustrates the following points: (a) the progreive increase in the cost of cooking with charcoaL as descbed previously, (b) the correlating drop in the price of petroleum fuels, including the more distinct drop in propane during the last few years, primarily due to taation decisions, .45. (¢) decontrolled propane became cowith charcoal in 1985, and kerosene, afte subjected to now ta controls, became competitve again In 1988, (d) of course these costs depend on the stoes used: thus with more Icient stoes a those presently used (portable presized kerse cookers, mpoved cacoal stoves), kerosene and caol costs are oan par with those of propane, (e) under curent conditions, butane is more eqensive than competing £ffm1 SA Cet8 of Cookir with crmi, Keros wsd SOn 1980 0$ per useful GJ 40 30 p - p s Et,OPA.NE GAS B TPANE CGAS la CHARCCOAL ' 7'1 72 73 74 735 764 77 7'8 79I 80 81 8'2 8'3 8 4 85 8 6 '87- 88 8 9 9 0 Butane: iBp Ticheri stove; Propane: cooker with oven Krosen.-: wick stove; Charcoal: traditional stove 3.40 Amortization and maintenance cost of stoves are incorporated into the cauatbim presented in Table 3.1 (a mmmzy of the detaied tables attaced in Appendix VI). These fi S confirm the preced conclusions: cqorokgthcharcoa keroseor propae gs essendally costs the same for the Port-au-Prince conumer (about I$ 30 to 35 per usel GJ), wih butane beig distncty mo apensive. 3.41 TWo remak, however, ought to be noted. The fit concerns how feb are purchased: i the hdisholds do not purchase varWie qualiy c oa im ba or in smallr porton (75% of households purc arcold in this manner), but prefer to puvchase sele$ed charcoal sold In pots or baskets, their cooking cos is almost double the previous estimates. 3.42 Th quantites in wich keroe IB purcaed as ar important. Most of the present users of portable kerosene stoves purchase thei fuel by palon at the pump. Howeer there ae * on the order of 70 sevice stations I Prtau-Prince With the develpment of the -46 - kerosen market conmers woud purchase kerose rin reales Th fac that keroe can be purchased daily In small quantities s one of Is greatest advanta as a fueL thus it becomes more accesiMe to wer-Ime householb or to thos with Irrnlar incomes. However ths sevic also comes at a price: the selg pric of a 1-lite botto i 30% more expive ta the price when purased by the gallon at the pump. IWSl: Compred costs of Cocking In Pwt*auPrlnca, 19" fimiatl Cost Fuel Soe T"e Of of Cooki pwdho UMiseu W charcoal RouWd traditiontl Bas 35.0* Chwcat und Iproved Sag V7.P Charcoat PteJ6 tradftiotl Sa 38.4 coal PotaJ6 wed O 31.6 Krosee Vik Fftltln Station 34.90 Kersn Vck Sottte 461 KeOsn Preswausd Fpiling station V7.6 Ker-ne Pesurhed Bottle 36.5 Propne Cooker Current price 30.80 Plow Cooker Theoretic price 15.3 Sutma sip Current price 50.1* utue* sip Theoretic price 15.4 as: * Currently us In Haiti 3.43 Tem other more f m remark concerns th cuet shructu of the pric of as, as presented in Ta 32. Th vuios compoents of th prie are reviwd In urn, begi with te FOB price Ihe FOB purchase pre for g, 29 nd 40 cents per galon respecvely for propane and butane, presenty are about S cnts abo the Mt. Beleu spot market posti- Thi is not a temporr or onjeca p enon: for the past fe yea oar moe, petoleum product, and partcula gs, have be imported at prices 3 to S cent hier than the spot marke pric per gallon. For the 30,000 tons importd duig thbis ped, this reents an oveal cos of USS 600,000 for te Haitan economy. 3.44 The tanport component In the gas price struc - about 30 cents per glon of gs, or Sl0 per to of Vs - is quie ea dconpd to the costs of V transportin, r e_anle, Jamaica (US$ 40/T for an ann mket of 45,000 tons) or the Dominican Repubi (US$ 50/T for an annual markdt of 35,000 tons). Ihese differns aot be eplained on y the very reduced she of deliies, which arive evey 15 days in Port-auPrinoe. Accrding to a BAPP SU*, if s trnsport wrew open to a i te co woud become fied at around US$100/T under prest conditions, and adua would levd out to around USSS0/T (10 cents per gDo) if the ps market wee to g su l and if new reception fac1ies and adequate storage istrcre wen -47 - 3.45 The limited size of the Haitian market also is not the only explanation for the high combined margins (approximately 60% for propane and more than 70% for butane) for importing and distribution companies. The usual combined margin in similar market situations in neighboring markets or other micro-markets (in Africa, for example) is between 30 and 35%. table 3.2: Costs of Import ing Gas and Kerosene Kerosene Propano Propane Butane Butane Fuel Unit GaClon Galton Gallon Gallon Gallon (1) (2) (1) (2) FOB price US cents 58.0 29.0 29.0 34.0 34.0 Transport US cents 2.2 29.7 10.0 28.8 10.0 Insurance US cents 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Custos Duty US ents 1.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 CIF price US cents 62.1 59.6 39.9 63.8 45.0 height kg 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 CIF price S/kg 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 Calorif 1t value NJ/kg 43.5 45.7 45.7 45.7 4S.7 CIF final enrw $j/ 4.6 6.4 4.3 6.8 4.8 Stove efftciency X 401 601 601 50X 50S CIf usefut onergy $/GJ 11.5 10.6 7.1 13.6 9.6 &Mtia: (1) Current transport cost: $140/ton (2) Transport cost at one-thIrd of Its current level 3.46 A comparison of the price structure for propane in Haiti with that in the Dominican Republic is quite instructive: the Dominican Republic market for propane is 12 tines larger and also strongly competitive. The CW price there is pcically half that of Haiti and the price before subsidies are added is three times lower. Once subsidized, the propane costs five times less for the cuastomer than in Haiti (see Table 3.3). Tbis comparison does not take into account, however, possible differences between Hiti and the Dominican Republi with respect to corporate taxes on benefits. It is also worth mentioning that the assessment of investment risk is probably different in these two countries; in Haiti, Shell applies a rate of return on investment of 15%, which is probably higher than the rate applied by private firms in the Dominican Republic. However, these possible differences could not totaly explain the large margin difference that exsts between the two countries. A detailed review of the price structure of butane and propane should therefore be conducted, in close collaboration with the gas importer and distnbutors, and with the BAPP; this would be included in the proposed study of the options to develop the LPG market in Haiti (see Annex XI). 48. abtsJ3j: COparison of PrOPuO Price Stactures in Naiti and Domnian Republe Haiti Omuini cn Rep. Prqpan Po GPM Hiti April 1990 April 1990 veruA (Cents/Gal) x (Cents/Gat) X Gafin. Rep. M0 price 29.0 199 23.0 47 1.3 Traport 29.7 20X 10.0 20X 3.0 Custm duty 0.9 1X 0.0 Os CI? price S9.6 40K 33.0 67O 1.8 Nisc. dats 5.1 3X 0.0 as Ex-custas price 64.7 43K 33.0 67K 2.0 Nargins 85.3 57X 16.2 33K 5.3 Retal price without subsidy 150.0 1003 49.2 100X 3.0 ahIdy 0.0 os 16.4 33X 0.0 Retail price 150.0 100K 32.8 67K 4.6 NMce WP 3.47 Hein lies the problem of the competon among fuels. 'Me prime suetr of kerosene is relavel sound: there is competition among dstibutors and the price componets are negotiated with the State. However, if the basic coponents of the gas price sure were to be rised, its retail prioe would reach about 60 cents per pllon: reling costs for a 12.5 kg contaier would amount to $4, and for the Bip container, 4 Gourdes. If prices were revised downward in this maner, gs (butane or propane) would become the cheaper fuel, distncty lower priced than ompeting es. With the present tax regime, the cost of cookling with gas, including amortiation and maintenc cost for stovesi would then be two times lower than the cost of cooking with charcoal or kerosene. Red and 3leoretic Economic Cm&t of Cooldng Fbels 3.48 Comparison of economic cost takes into acoount the real cost of different uels and stovs. Thus the analysis takes cossx net of the various taxes (especialy kerosene taxes) and subidies which are applied directly or indirect through foreign achange mecnisms Ihe price of wood used in the analy is different from the current market value; rather it refies laeme ct costs wing agrofosy planting techniques and takes into account the reference pries for the labor, the margins for producers, tan wholesales and retailers, and the eang rate (see Appendix V); ithus the economic cost of charcoal is les thn its cumret retail sellg price 3.49 It is apparent from this comparison that under preseat c_rman erosene is the most economic solution when it is pured at the pump (bwee US$s18 and US$22 per useful 03). The cost arrived at for other fuel are, in ascending order charcoal (between US$20 and US$27 per useful 03) and gS (US$29 and US$44 per useful G0 respctively for propame and bu ). aearly, under cu t prices, the countrys most economic solution is to sustiute -49 - kerosene for charcoaL Otherwise, agroforesy planting is the neo best solution, with gas substitution being the least economic (see Table 3.4). If the base cost of gas is revised to reflect its real economic costs, the situation is reversed: Its economic cost fails to around US$15 per useful GJ, thus making it the best alternative for the country, not only for Port-au-Prince but also in the provincial towns where dcarcoal is about 30% cheaper than in the capitaL abtg 3.4s Copred Econmic Costs in Port-au-Prince, 1990 Current Theoretic ecomic econoic Puel Stove Type of cost of cost of purchase cooking cooking useful GJ useful GJ Charcoal Round traditional sa 24.5 29.3 Charcoal Round traditional oa 19.5 23.2 Charcoal Potaj6 traditional Bso 26.9 31.6 Charcoal PotaJ6 frproved Boo 22.1 25.8 Kerosene ick Fillifn stat. 22.6 22.6 Kerosene Vick Bottle 30.3 30.3 Kerosene Pressurized Filling stat. 18.7 18.7 Kerosene Pressurized Bottle 24.7 24.7 Propane Cooker Container 28.6 14.0 Butane Bip Container 44.4 14.9 Compared Im Ct on the Balance of Payments 3.50 In terms of the impacts of importing petroleum products on the balance of payments, there is also a tendency for the options to reverse their order of desirability if gas prices are revised (see Table 3.3). Under present price conditions, the impact of petroleum imports is about the same for both kerosene or gas (slightly lower in the case of propane, a little higher in the case of butane). Importing gas is the least cost option when gas prices are revised. 3.51 In condlusion, the gas solution appears the most advantageous 'or consumers and the county, but only if necessazy measures are taken to open the market to greater competition and if necessary investments are made for storage and distribution in asucture. However, the various parameters whkh govern consumer choices for purchasing equipment and switching to another fuel, need to be analzed to determine if the gas market is worth a promotion effort The markcet for fuels and stoves is, therefore, analyzed in the following section. -50- The Mark" for FEls and Stone Current UsersOf Improved Sto as Stoves and Keoene Res 3.52 The haracterisi of Port-au-Prince households that currently use gas and kerosene are as follows: (a) the 40,000 residential users of propane gas are distinguised by their level of income: almost all affluent households and a majorit of the upper-middle income households own gas equipment Whatever the income level, more than one in every two households which own gas equipment use gs as the primaiy cooking fueL (b) the 20,000 new Bip purchses have a proffle somewhat like households of the previous category (see Table 3.5): larger, well-todo households which have been reluctant to make the switch to gas and purchase Bip as contingency equipment; middle class household; and even the better-off among poorer households (nearly 10% of households with montWy incomes of less than $72 per capita have purchased a Bip). However, the further removed this market penetration s from the taditional propane markets, the more lily* purchases of Bip equipment are made for contingenqy use; on the average only one Bip owner in three uses it as the primany cooking appliae. Finally, the owners of Bip are younger than the average: 50% of Bip users are less than 30 years old, 80% less than 40 years old. IakJ, 3.5: Bip Ticheriws share of the gs urket in thousands of Nuseholds Socio-ecomena stratum Totel X Low X NIdiw X Nigh X Propane Stove Prmary 20.3 54 1.4 50 10.4 50 8.6 59 Secondary 17.6 46 1.4 50 10.4 50 5.9 41 Bip Tidier Prifmry 6.3 33 0.5 10 2.7 26 3.2 70 Secndary 13.1 67 4.1 90 T.7 74 1.4 30 Total households 180.0 100 114.3 100 49.1 100 16.7 100 lMes see Auei 10 for th dmfinftien and boundaries of thr three socto-econeac grows. Sw0: ESOPW/EILADE/PIA Surve, 1990 (c) the 5,500 household users of kerosene are wel-off to middle class households with the same type of income. However they tend to be not only older than Bip users (two-thirds of women who cook wih kerosene we between 30 and 40 years old), but they also have larer than average households (often 6-8 people per household). 0 F 'U U - a 04.8o *I I U   I  .oo !'s 0 4bo .AI 0 .d ikI S a I - 0 . . 0. *1it! 5.ui. tq.  If.u.o1iua .0toic3 0 41 iii j.01  ,1 d Fe'U   - '  £.U 'SK 0 Ii * 52. Potential Markets for Stoves and Fuels 3.57 The market potential in Port-au-Prince for the different stoves and fuels (for primary use) was determined based on different analyses conducted during the study. A factor analysis of soco-economic characteristics, purchasing behavior, and energ consumption practices of households polled in the capital (see Appendix VII) showed a certain number of fundamental parameters that determine the choices of stoves and fuels. These determining factors are in decreasing order: (i) purchaing ability (level, reguiarity); (ii) ability to investment; (iii) wlingness to modernize (or concern for tradition); (iv) household size; and (v) introversion of household (or on the contrary, openness to the external world). 358 On the basis of both this analysis and the results of the stoves presentation, five target groups were identified 2/, with different profiles: (a) G roup A: households without budgetary or rigid dietary constraints; (b) Group B: households of more than six people, with a variable but regular income; (c) Group C: average-sized households with a certain level of education; (d) Group D: households witD. 'ow or irregular income; - (e) Group E: modern, progressive households. 3.59 An evaluation of the market potential of each of the principal tpes of stoves and fuels was conducted for each of these groups under two scenarios: (i) gas prices remain at their present level, and (ii) gas prices are reduced appreciably to levels two times less than their present level In the latter case, a sensitivity analysis was also carried out for the respective market shares for the main stoves and fuels in relation to exogenous factors (inflation, income level) or endogenous faictors (distribution polies, price of equipment, loan availability, advertising strateg for promoters of different equipment). 3.60 . The results, detailed in Appendix VIm are smmarized in Table 3.6. This table describes the potential markets in Port-au-Prince for the different fuels and stoves for primary use. The results mainly show. (a) relatively interesting prospects for substitution with the possibiity, all things being equal of inducing over 40% of households to switch to a primary fuel other than charcoal 2/ The sum of these groups represents the total population of Port-au-Prince. 0 53 -- (b) the strong prefernce for gas among all substitution po ities (27% of households; 10% opt for kerosene and 3% for electricity) JiQI. The market for 'popular gasp (Bip or possibly other portable stoves) could absorb most potential new gas users, thus attining up to two thirds of the gas market; (c) the entrenchment of a substantial portion of households (60% of the total) which are resistant to substitution and wil continue to use charcoal either in a small round stove (46%) or a potaje stove (14%); (d) the possible level of market penetradon by rond improved stoves, encompassig 40% of small stoves users and a litde less than 20% of the total households abLle 3.6A Results of the mrket study In Port-au-Prince Port-au-Prince Narket Reference 1990 (1) (2) Santo Domino Ned Max NMn 1988 Charcoal stoves Traditional stove 60X 27K 20X loX 22X Iqirved stove 2K 19K 1n 17K 20K Potaid stove 22K 14K 9X 6x 10K b lttoal 845 40 47K 43K SU2 UK Kerosene stoe 2K 10K 6a 5K 71 3x as stove Propane cooker 9X 10K 16 19% 14X Butane stove 4K 18X 28X 321 25K Sub Total 13S 27X 443 50K 39X 45 Electric plat 2X 3X 2X 2X 2K 2X TOTAL 105 lOOK 1Q68 1000 l0OX 10o fqje: (1) Market potential, prfce structures wchanged (2) Market potentl, significant decrese of gas price Ned: Average ga penetration Max: Maxima gas penetration Mfn: Minima as penotration imccs Market testss ESNAP/8NE/OLADE/PNW 3.61 An appreciable downward evolution in pas prices wold reinforces these tendenciea Under the most cstimisflc hypotheses, gas would attain market hares of 50% In the capital city, cutting into the charcoal market (espediay among potaj6 users), and also pginig sinifictly on kerosene and .elctricity. Tis would facilitate sbhfts from conventional gas to popular gs and lQ/ The pentag prerring kerosene would be greater than 10% ff kerosene prics wer decontrolled like LPG. However, if the price of LPG were redued, LPO preference would override that for kierosene and elericiy. 54 - therefore woud benefit both types of gs in equal shares. It also woud in no way negate the need to begin efforts to distibute improved stoves to the popuation segents who continue to use dbarcoaL 3.62 It is apparent from the market analyses that, even under optimistic scenarios of substituton, the percentage of charcoal users would remain around 40% in the medium term Mounting a conseraon progamm thus remains a priori. In addition, the likelihood is high that market penetration by the small round imprved stove wil be cesful in all cases: esimates are between 40% and 50% of current users of the ole round stove modeL 3.63 The concusions of this analysi correpd to those of the analysis of financil and eownomic cost for the different fl The market analysi suggems that gs has the best chance of achieving masive substitution; and the cost analysi shows that it is possible to make significant interventions at the price strucu leal in order to promote gs use among urban Haitian consumes 3.64 Therefore, it is necessaiy to aumine the feasibilit and the conditions of those components which correspond to the two main axes of the energ strategy, designed to alleviate the presure of woodfuel consumpio on the Haitian environment in the short term: (a) the reduction of urban charcoalcosmption through promotion of gas subsituon; (b) energy savmngs achieved through distributing more efficient tems of cooking with charcoaL 3.65 Whether it be in terms of comparative costs of different fuels or of consumers' preferences, gas is the best substitution option for charcoal in the capital and the main Haitian cities However, as previously seen, the current gas market is not optiml on three diinct levels: (a) the cost of supply on th inteational market and of aporting ps to the idand; (b) the capacity of dcdn and storage fitis (c) the magns taken by importers and distributor 3.66 Asa co n,the prie of is inased in an cessie fashion; the fuel thus is limited a smal fraction of the population. Coniuation of this sitation could be understood ip an environmental context different from His: the welloff customer incontesbly benefits from reiable and high qualt service, and the pressre which LPG i eert on the balance of -S5 a payments remains minimum under current conditions. Hower, as has been previously discusse massive LPG distibution in substitution for charcoal is urgety needed. Thus steps must be taken to open the gas market. 3.67 Two fimdamental options are available to pubLic authorities for developing the gas market: (i) negotiate an agreement with the current importer, which satisfies both parties and favors rapid expansion of the gs markl (a reuated "natura monopoly) - or (ii) encourage the creation of competing supply and distribution fims. The most simple of the options theoretcally is to strke an agreement with the exdsting operator concerning regulted prices for propane and butane (return to the sitaation before 1987) and the new inwstment program for increasing storage and filing capacity. However the other option of encouraging the creation of one or several competing supplies has the advantage of addressing both the Fpoblems of investment and of pices: since the market wil be increasing it thus is preferable for the State to facilitate market entry by various competing suppliers rather than to negotiate with a single supplier. The option of geographic concessions that woud be allocated by the Govenment to different operators for the main cities is not feasble at the moment due to the limited size of the potential market for gas sales in cities other than Port-au-Prince; however, this option should be reviewed again as soon as the potential market in these cities (CapHaltien, Gonalves, LeA Cayes) justifies the installation of small botding plants, probably during the neot decade (see Annex IX for market estimates in main cities). 3.68 The appearance of a new supply and distrbution company would stimulate competition not only in the Oconventional market for propane (12.5 kg and 50 k& or even 100 kg containers), but also in the market for popular as (butane), thanks to the distribution of 3 or 6 kg containers the competition between 6 kg and 3 kg portable cookstoves is quite vibrant in certain West Afirican countries (Senegal, Mali), which is beneficial to the consumer sice it provides an array of diversified products. The new company coud strengthen market growth by making it easier for middle-income households to purchase bottles (cross mecanism of the type adopted initally by Sodiz, amortizing part of the price of a bottle over the sales of gas), and by researching and promoting adapted coostoves. Possiblities incude some one or two burner portable cooksts suh as those as ibuted in several African countries (Sahelian countries, Cameroun) or some models manufcturd in the Dominican Repubki 3.69 Two options should be considered for importing gas to meet growing demand as the gs market develops: (a) re-exportation from the Dominhn Republic, (b) creation of a new as teminl (or enlarging the exsting termial). 3.70 Under the fist option, an agreement should be reached with the Dominia Republic for importing s from tat countqr a posslty which despite certain political risb (seity of suppy) ought to be considered, on the condition that the future transfer price of gas -56 - supplied by the Dominican Republic reflects its economic cosL The Dominican Republic has a considerable storage capacity available to it, equivalent to more than five months of internal consmption. The Dominican Republic already plans to re eport LPG to other countries in the Caribbean in order to make its new terminal and storage center at Azua, located 150 km south east of Santo Domingo, profitable. 3.71 The Azua teminal is relatively close to Haiti (300 km from Port-au-Prince, with road transport costs about $500 by truck). It was deliberately located to capitalize on potential supply routes along the nearby north-south axis of the border. The comparativel limited needs of Haitian cities make this center a viable alternative, at least for the first years of gas promotion in Hait Transport from Azua would cost approxmately $02 per gallon; thus gas arriing at Port-au-Prince from this source would cost less than the current CIF price based on sea transport (62 cents per gallon). 3.72 The other possibility is to construct an autonomous gas receiving terminal i Haiti (docking, storage and bottling facilities); this would represent an investment of about US$ 4 to 5 million. Tbis option has several advantages, the most important being security of supply. In fact, the current importer, Shell-Haiti, already has a project of this type pLanned for the medium-term. It would be preferable to implement the project in an open competition framework: (a) whether by setting up a competing importing and distribution company which would own and operate the installatons, (b) or by separating imports from disiution through installation of a proper receiving and storage ifrastrcture to be used by various distribution companies (including the current importer, if it is so inclined). 3.73 Under current circumstances, the Haitian government must not involve itself in the direct importation or distribution of petroleum products. All new schemes thus must depend largely on the private sector. Tbis supposes a mobilization of new partners in HaitPs gas sector. Different options ought to be explored: (a) At the Haitian leveL various entrepreneurs (either Haitian or foreigp parties conducting business in the country - priority could be given to petroleum companies which already have operations in Haiti) could be interested in this type of set-up. (b) At the international level, it may be possible to interest some large multnatonal petroleum companies who operate in the Caribbean, but who have not yet approached the Haitians. (c) It is also possible to explore certain possibilities of regional cooperation: agreement with Trintoc (Trinidad and Tobago) or, in a framework comparble to the San Jose agreement, with Mexico or Venezuela. -57 3.74 Should cration of z new termnal be prefefred, the investments required would be quite substantiaL It may prove dift to attract the necesry Haitian and foreign investors During its prdemy research in 1988 and 1989, the BAPP had experience of this phenomeon: the country's situation provides disincentives to foreign investment Although some intenational copanies are interested in Haitis gas market, they prudently are waiting for the situation to improve. In this case the State itself could be justified - for enal reasons (strong environmental judfication) . to participate in the initiative for this infrasure. This can work from the level of a simple guarantee, or could indlude Government participation in a minority share of the investment. It is likely in this case that the Government's share would require the support of an international financial insitution, which would smultaneously provide financial support and guarantee the operation. 3.75 In all situations, the State should endeavor to recapture tighter control over the conditions of gas importation and dmibution, and notably over prices. It should also reinstitute a tax on gas, in order to finance the pubic effort in that domain: supervision of the sector and possible investments. Given the possbilities of reducing the eisting margins, that small tax would not become a hindrance to the development of a gas market Finally, the State should pay special attention to limit the environment impact of gas storage and distribution inase, particularly concerning safety aspects through adequate norms and regulations. Similar safety concerns should exst at the level of consumers, to whih education campaigns should be addressed by the State to ensure safe and efficient use of gas stoves. EneMa Conservtidon 3.76 Improved stoves programs must advance from the expeimental, "minimalist' stage to a stage of largescale distrbution throughout the estiated markets in Port-au-Prince and the other main cities of HaitL Prtivate parties already operating in the sector (manuftrer, merhants, NGOs) could be drfted for implementing these distribution progams. It also is necessay that initiatives for product development and promotion be orgnied and coordinated. The BME should be responsible for orgizatonal and coordinating hfnctions, with regard to: (a) product research and development, (b) quality control and standards, (c) coordination of actvities for local promotion. 3.77 The stove developed by the BME or its eisting variations in various workshops (AFVP, BlT) is undeniably a very good product with wide acceptance. It would be quite easy to orgie distribution of the product among domestic consumers and, in its larger version, among the manj kwit (small restaurants along the side of the road) within a revely short period of -58- time. The analysis of market potential for stoves and fuels shows however that another category of equipment should be considered: the potaje stoves Given the current and future market for these stoves (currently 30% of households, 10 to 15% there after, accordig to the market study), an improved model of the potaje stove should be developed for distribution to the small fracdon of middle-high inome householk reluctant to switch fuels itrage on the use of reowvered versus new material for stove manufacture should be left to the stove makers, who wil reflect market signals (relative costs of materials and consumers' demand according to their preferences). 3.78 Some traditional stoves seemingly are more effiient than average, such as the 'capoie stove of Cap Haitien, and they should be tested. Also, various institutonal and private iniatives for perfecting and distributing improved stove models have been undertaken (REDI, MARNDR, etc). These initiatives should be channeled together by definig a testng and standards procedure for the various eisting models or those wich recently have been developed 3.79 With regard to the producers training and field promotion, a network of local partipants should be developed gradul with the support of the NGOs operating in the cities and neighborhoods where stoves would be distrbuted. A decentralized effort of this tpe should be coordinated by a singe institution, possiby the BME Trining of .raftsmen, promotion and iformation campaigns, and follow-up/eaaluation should be designed and implemented by one or several NGOs which are competent in these areas leastin*W M Short I= 3.80 Various alternatives have been discarded as they do not present favorable possiblities for addressing the cfrent problems. They include: (i) use of lignite; (ii) use of agricultur, agro-industrial or urban wastes; and (iii) importatio of charcoal or coaL 3.81 Haiti possesses severa Ugnite deposita. Ihe most well known, the Maissade deposit, has proven recoverable reserves of about 6.4 million tons Other deposits have been identified i the Asile and Camp Perfia. A 1986 study (Stevenson) showed that eploitatlon of this lignite could be econo mpetitive with charcoaL However, the lignite is of relatively low qualit: high humidity, high sulfr and high ash content - thus rendering it u ptable as a charcoal substitute for residental use as we as unusable in existing cbarcoal stoves Itc ould be used in industries, and a stu to examine this posslty is planned under the guidance of the UNDP. 3.2 Simlary, the use of agriculral or ar-industrial wastes (as briquettes) also does not present a viabe alternative for the resnial sector. Main reasons for this are problems of aceptabiliy among consmers and the lack of financial profitability. By contrast, there are some possibiies for using this fuel source in small industries, although expiments conducted in 1987 -59 - for the use of sur cane bagasse by drycleaning establishments were inconclusive. This theme thus remains largely in the exeimental stage. Haitian peclists have suggested to consider the use of gas produced from household urban waste in dumps organized following specific methods; on technical grounds, this producer gas could be cleaned, compressed and commercialized to be used for cooking purposes as the butane. Some experiences eadst on this technology (in partiua in Chile); these seem to indicate the lack of financial viability of such an operation in comparison with the use of butane gas, due to the high costs of dump manament and producer gas processing 3.83 Finaly, t is possible to compare the current prices of charcoal with that of imported charcoal Various Pic 4uotations (Plouvier, 1985, Projet Forestier 1989) place the wholesale price of imported charcoal from around US$8 per 38 kg bag (imported from Mexico), to US$10 per bag (imported in bulk from Surinam and put into bags in Haiti) and US$16/bag (imported from Brazil). Hence the retail saes price per bag would vary between 70 and 100 Gourdes, considerably higher than current prices. Importaion of charcoal thus cannot be considered a viable alternative. It is not competitve with the various potential alternatives and it has none of the advantages but many of the diadvantages of the substtution option: lack of secrty of supply, aggravation of the balance of payment deficits. It can also prsent environmental rsks for the producer countries. Importation of high qualit coal allowing its use as a cooking fuel, has also been examined. The Colombian export coal is a favorable case Qow sulphur content, low humidity content, calorific value similar to charcoal): with a FOB price of about US$55/ton, retafl price in Port-au-Prince could reach around Gourdes 780/ton (transport cost of US$15/ton; 60% margin for unloading, storage and distribution; US Dolar valued at 7 gourdes), which is about 25% cheaper than charcoal. However this option entails the same economic and political disadvantages as imported charcoal and it would probably face acceptance problems from the consumers, who, in addition, should buy new more expensive stoves for safety reasons (a chimney is necessary for CO evacuation); therefore coal importation is not a real option. ssmodw ay )tions 3.84 Three topics for action could have been imcluded among the strategy components. However, due to the limited size of the possible interventions and their foreseeable impacts, these options have finally not been considered as components of the strategy. The three topics are: (i) decreasing wood consumption, through its conservation, in rural areas; (ii) kerosene promotion in urban areas; and (iii) substitution of wood and charcoal in small industies. 3.85 Consumption of wood in rural areas represents most of Hiti's wood consumption, and thus could prove to be an important point of action for the household energy strategy. However two factors limit interest for an intervention in this domain: (a, the real deforestation impacts of firewood consumption are still not certain: wood wases frequently are generated by clearing the land and by pruning, practices which cannot be diassocated from agricutural practices; -60- (b) promotion of Improved stoves in rural areas, even those initiated by veiy active promoters, generally have had very limited impacts and the results have been very disappointingwith regard to the means employed, due to the chracteristis of wood use in rural areas: non-monetrized wood collected for self-consumption. 3.86 The kerosene market in Haiti seems to be relatively small, especy if gas prices are reduced. Its use should be promoted as one of the alternatives, less important than gas but nonetheless valid, to charcoaL However, given the scantness of its the market, the private sector should be left to initiate promotion of this fuel Further recommendations are: (a) that in the course of actions to promote substitution at national level, the Government advance kerosene as one of the alternatives to charcoal; (b) that the BME test the different models available on the market or those distributed in other countries (Colombia and Peru for example); (c) that the BME make itself known to Hafti Mdtal and other possible importers of kerosene stove models as a source of polkcy and technical assistmce, and that it refer them to foreign manufacers 3.87 Substitution of wood and charcoal by petroleum products (kerosene, diesel or fuel oil) or by biomass-based fuels (for instance biogas produced from molasses in the guildives 11/ in small urban- or rural-based industries has not been included among the priority topics for the foAlowing reasons: (a) overall consumption by these industries only represents about 5% of the total consumption of wood-based fuels (firewood, charcoal) in Haiti; (b) this substitution does not appear to be profitable in a number of cases: epeialy the economic conditions of substituting diesel in the gufldives are not met (See Annex X). (c) the most dynamic of these companies, those which can afford to make investments (bakeries, dycleaners, oil factories) have already switehed to other fuels; (d) in the context of Haiti's current economic conditions, the other companies' willingness and ability to invest is less cetain: the oil-manubacing sector, for instance, has been in the midst of a tructual crisis for several years; 1/ The MARNDR is currently implementing a demonstaon project on this technology. - 61 - (e) finally, actions taken for the residential sector, mainly those which favor the lowering of gs prices, should have a secondary positive impact on small enterprises (restaurants, for example). 3.88 BME should make itsef known to the companies so that it can be consilted by those who wish to renovate their infrastructure; BME could provide advise, suppliers' referrals and, when possible, prefasibility studies of substituting other fuels for wood. * ~~~~~~62. IV. SIATEGY COMPONENTS 4.1 The proposed Stratego is centered on three priority components desgned according to the principle objectives outlned In the precding chapter and taking into acoount the problems and constraints found i the setor. Les urgent actions and those with lmited impacts have been omitted. The three strategy components are: (a) opening the gas market, (b) charcoal conservation, (c) modernizng the chawoal sector. 4.2 Besides, a fourth priority component trgets the coherence of actions undertaken as part of the strateDy (a) strategy monitoring 43 The above listing of the strategs components do not imply priority ranking Indeed, as pointed out in Chapter 3, implementing the four recommended components concomitantly and in a coordinated way is necesay to reach the main objecties of the Strategy, ie. to curb down cacoal consumption and to increase the sstalnabilit of charoal pduction. Moreover, if the owmponents had to be ranked, the result would obviously depend on the criteria chosen to compare the components. For istance, if easiness of implementaton was the main cdterion, the charcoal conservation component woud rank first; however, If impact on charcoal consumption is the priority, then opening the gas market ranks frst, while if the issue is to achieve sutanable charcoal production in the medium t modernisng the secor becomes the main component. In any case, the component for poic formulation and strt coordination is necessary to the success of each one of the three other components 4A The outcomes exected from implementation ofthe s8tr s three components are summarized in Figure 4.1. Details are provided in Annex I. T.he strategy will be implemented over a three year period (1992.1994) but valuation of the costs and benefits of project outcomes wil extend over ten years (1992-2001). The latter corresponds more cosly with the typical eney sector planning horizon. Projections of fuel co -sumption and market penetration rates for improved appliances or for subsiution fuels are compared for two scenar implementatin of - 63 . the strategy versus no change in relation to the conamption paterns in 1990 (percentage of users and unit of conmption for each fuel). 12/ 4.5 The main outcomes of the Strategy will be to: (i) curb down the rapid increase of charcoal c_sumption and stabilize charcoa consumption; and (ii) to gradually transform - for the larger posse share - the remaining charcod production into a ustabinab;e financalb profitable and environmentally benign economic activity. Specific outcomes are the following: (a) gadual reduction of charcoal consmption in Port-au-Prince and in main cities (and thus reduction of the pressure on national forest resources) of 13% (relative to 1991 consmption) by the year 2000, and of 45% relatve to the consumption projected for 2001 assuming no changes. Annual charcoal consumption would stabRil at around 200,000 tons in 2001, assuming that new households (population growth) would all use LPG. This reduction of charcoal conumpton wM be induced by disseminaton of improved stoves and substitution by gas with the following expected resuts. (i) gradual increase in the proportion of uban consumers using gas as the primnay fuel; the objective is 35% of Port-au-Prince households in 1996 and 50% in 2001. In other cites, the objective figures are 10% and 20% respectively. Ths would induce gas consumption to rise from the current 7,000 tons per annum to 23,000 tons in 1996 and 41,000 tons in 2001; (ii) annual sales of butane portable stoves and gas cookers should reach 35,000 and 10,000 units respectively by 2001; more than 90% of the sales a expected in Port-au-Prince; (ii) by the year 2001, in Port-au-Prince and the main cites, one out of every two charcoal consumer will be using an improved stove, as well as one of every two manjo kwit restaurant, for a total of 80,000 stoves put into use between 1992 and 1994. (b) improved conditions for producing charcoal and ratinaliaton of acoess to forest rese rces in the main charcoal exploitadon zones, manifested through the following outcomes: 12/ A trend scenario with unchanpd consmpton patterns in the future is based on the assumption that a conservation and substitutn ceiling has been reached (gas penetration stoped, with current conditions for prices and infrastructure, and neglUgible disemination of improved sttoves). .64- (i) deiniton and implementation of a Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince, including the improvement of the fiscal system and of the control of charcoal flows (collection rate for transport taxes rising from 10% in 1990 to 60% in 1996); (ii) training 500 professional charcoal producers in the use of higher yield charcoal making techniques and in simple methods of improved management This would cover one of every 100 charcoal makers, spread out over the main charcoal exploitation zones and, to a lesser etent, in the on dier quots. flgME_4.1: Expectted laet of the Stratey slow0 tons of chmI *1000 tons ps 400 - S0 350 . ._..... _40 300 200 -- - 150 20 10 0. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1.i.97 1998 1999 2000 2001 - Charcoal (trend) ..+- Charcoal (strategy) Charcoal (without Improved stoves) . Gas (trend) a Gas (strategy) 4.6 In addition, the economic consequences of the strategy are expected to be the following - 65 - (a) increase in the total cost of petroleum product imports by 12% in the year 2001, all other things remaining equal. This represents an increase equivalent to 4% of total countly exports in 1990, which is relatively small; / (b) charcoal income in the main production zones will be maintained (and under normal circumstances will actually increase, because of efforts taken to improve the producer price in real terms). Opening the Gas Market 4.7 Although it is the best choice for the country in both economic and financial terms, and as the preferred - and potentially the least expensive - fuel among consumers, gas suffers from a limited distribution in Haiti because of the current import and distribution system for the fuel. The strategy component addressing the opening of the gas market has several objectives: (a) to obtain a significant reduction in the retail prices of butane and propane, by creating conditions of real competition in the supply of gas or by regulating the existing monopoly; and (b) to facilitate access to gas usage and the acquisition of gas equipment for the lower income classes (middle clas, upper levels of the poorer households) to induce its use as a primary cooking fuel. 4.8 Ihe Haitian institution responsible for developing this project component should be the Division for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) within the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, in association with the BME. Within the framework of the strategy, the BAPP should: (a) coordinate work on a preliminary study of the different potential options for importing and distributing gas, in association or in competition with the exdsting importer and distributors, including necessary reform of the edsting legal and regulatory framework. (see the detailed terms of reference in Annex XI), (b) propose the most favorable option(s) to the Government, then monitor and control proper implementation of the option adopted, These numbers are only indicative since the value of exports and the cost of imported petroIeum products can fluctuate widely. In the case of oil price, despite some unpredictable nnd large variations, ther seems to be a long-term trend for an annual increase of 2 to 3 % in real terms. This assumption leads to an average CIF price of about US$250/ton for LPG on the 1992-2001 period (also accounting for the decreasing cost of transport, which is linked to increasing volumes of gas used). .66 . (c) propose adjustments needed for contracts, regulatory legiation, and fiscal policy which conform to the adopted option and more generally, to the other components of the strategy. 4.9 The technical options for opening the gas market which should be analyzed are detailed in the preceding chapter. They are the following (a) importing gas from the Dominican Republic, A/ (b) creating a marine terminal and an autonomous storage and filling center, (c) enlargement of existing receiving storage and filing infrastruure. For each potential option (alone or combined), the various possibilities of partnerships with private or institutional operators, foreign or national, should be examined, along with the legal, regulatory and fiscal consequences associated with the option(s). 4.10 The component to open the gas market specifically includes the following activities: (a) financing for a study of the different potential options, (b) support to the BAPP so that the institution participates directly in the analyses and missions, and so that afterwards it has the ability to carry out its regulatory function in the subsector. (c) the estimated total for engineering studies and investments. 4.11 The esdmated costs of the component conservatively take into account the most eensive option -implementation of an autonomous gas teminal, including filling center. The investment hypotheses are sufficient for meeting increasing butane and propane demand up to 1996. They are: (a) a gas terminal, equiped with two pumps and two gas pipelines (vapor 3', liquid: 6") of approximately 2 kms, MV Analysg this option should include the carefu evaluation of associated risks of variation in the economic and contracting conditions of gas supply from the Dominican RepubLic -67- (b) main storage capacity of 150 tons, 1/ dMided Into fiv pruried taks wih 300 ton capacity, wit a fire prevendon safety ystem (water tank and pumps), (c) a filling system (with fir premtion safety dry tem) equpped with eight balances with a maximum cpacity equivalent to 60 tons/day (in two 8-hour cydes), capable of filing 3/6 kg and 12.5 kg containers, Ml (d) an inventory of 230,000 3-kg containers (or 115,000 6-kg containers) and 100,000 12.5-kg containers. V 4.12 The total budget for this component is estimated at Us$ 7.6 million (see Table 4.1 and Annex XIV). This total indludes US$ 72 miSUon in capital investments (all or a large part from priate sources) and budgetary ort for the BAPP of USS 370,000, iuding the study of gas development options 4.13 E Even under optimistc hypotheses for substitution by other fuels, a considerable proportion of households - an estimated one of every two households on averag in Haiti's major cities - wi continue to use charcoaL. Distbution of Improved charcoal stoves is thus an inportant component of the strategy. This component has two min thrusts: (a) largescale distrlron of round improved stoves (BME model) to approdmately 20% of the households in Port-au-Pino by the year 2001. Ths amounts to a total of 45,000 stoves in disrution in the capital by the third year after the component is launched, 15,000 soves in the other main cities (20% of all househol), and 7,000 stoes to the mnje kwit resuants in all main cites, for a total distibution of 67,000 stoves during the first three yeras j~/ storage equivalent to about one month of gas mpdon in 1996 (including edsting torae). j/ About 30 tons per day for each Wpe of container. fl/ Numbers oained by considering the prelimiry following assumptions butane and propane penetration rates as in Avnex IX household use of buae and propane as secondary cooking fuel in a number d househols equal to S0% of households usi g as primary fuel; 1.5 container per household in averag; diributors' contaner sc equal to 25% of households' stock; amual container replacement ratio of 5% of total stock. -68- (b) development of an improved potaje stove, and distrbution of 16,000 units throughout the capital and other main cities by the end of three year 4.14 Thi represents an overal ccoal saving of nearly 15,000 tons in 1994, or about 8% of total charcoal consumption in Haites main urban centers. 4.15 ,n PiWo itie. In order to be successul, 'lstrlbution of improved stoves must take place in the context of several coordinated activities: (a) techical and marketing work for developing and testing stove models so that the recommended models are both fuel efficent and adapted to consumer needs. One or more improved models of the potaje stove should be among those developed; (b) a study to review oonditions for manufacturing (craftsmen, availability of sheet metal, etc. ), marketing and promoting th, two cookstove models in the main cities other than Port-au-Prince; (c) training for traditional stove makers and iron masons to manufactu improved stoves according to adopted standards of performance and quality, (d) making use of current traditional produion networks for manufacturing improved stoves: rechauliers for the round stoves, iron-masons for malkng potaje stoves, with materias in use (recovered sheet metal, and subsequently new sheet metal probably); (e) making use of existing distrbution networks for marketing the stoves: sales by producers or by small intermediaries under normal conditions for retal sales (without Government intervention on prices or margins); (f) a ustained publicity campaign, using different media outlets: espedaly radio, but also television stations and the prnted press; (g) promotion activities in the field, makir.g use of communication means of local associations; (h) follow-up and evaluation of the results of the distibution program; and, (i) effective coordination between the different local ortions involved in promotion. 4.16 Jaititutional Famr. he best institutional set-up consists of bringing together the main actors already active in the area of improved stovw , and to assign to them responsibilities in the areas where they are the strongest: -69 - (a) the BME for general supervision and coordination of the program through its Steering Unit (see para. 431-435), and more particularly for the technical aspects of research and development for the stoves; and (b) one or more NGOs for the following aspects: training craftsmen, publicity and promotion, follow-up and evaluation in the field. 4.17 QgmpnentsA. The improved stove distribution program contains four components. The first, product design and quality control, wfll be camed out by the BME. The main acthities of the component wil be to develop stove models (especially an improved potaje), technical testing of proposed models, and quality corntrol for cookstoves under distribution. The BME wil receive short-term technical assistance for product development (foreign asistance) and consumer trials Oocal assistance) and will work in collaboration with one or more local craftsmen for the design and manufacture of the improved stove models The BME will be furnihed with necessary testing equipment (test banks) and its operating means will be strengthened. The main program administrators also will be expected to make study tours to gain from the experiences with improved stove programs in other countries. 4.18 The second component is a training component for craftsmen. The distribution objectives are based on training of 100 rechauliers (70 in Port-au-Prince and 30 in other cities) and 50 iron-masons (35 in Port-au-Prince and 1S in the other main cities - Cap Haitien, Gonalves, Les Cayes and St Marc. Several main areas will be covered in the training: improved manufacturing techniques, use of recovered or new sheet metal (with templates), parameters which affect the efficiency and durability of the stoves, benefits of using improved stoves, marketing techniques, etc. 4.19 Tne third component includes (i) organizing publicity campaigs through local and national media and (ii) field promotion for the stoves. The general desgn, organization and implement tion of publicity campaigns will be the responsibility of Haitian public relations professionals Campaigns wil emphasize the advantages of improved stoves over traditional portable cookstoves, both from the consumer standpoint (charcoal savings, rapid and better controlled coolkng, more durable appliance) and from the standpoint of the nation (reduced environmental degradation). Field promotion of the stoves is an important element for the success of the distribution program, as has been demonstrated by several recent (and successful) stoves projects, notably in Kenya (Jiko stove), in Niger and in Mali (Mai Sauki stove) or in Rwanda (Rondereza stove). Promotion techniques will include neighborhood exhibitions, contests and games, "moving" publity (pick-up trucks with loud speakers) and standard "stationary" publiciy (pos stickers, T-shirts, etc.) Proper and efficient techniques for using the stoves will be explained and demonstrated, as well as energy-saving techniques for cooldng (soaling grains, use of aluminum pots and lids, new recipes, etc.) The field promotion, encompassing Hait8s main cites, wil have three poles - Port-au-Prince, the north (Gonalves, Cap Ha3tien and St Mtrc) and -70- the south (Le Cayes). Groups of promoters wM be asged to each of the cides (four in Port au-Prince and one in each of the other four cities). Educational and promotional documents wil be developed with short term local technical asitne To the extt possible, the coordintg NGO wil make use of local groups for orgpniig the actual stove disutio 4.20 The fourth component, program follow-up and evauation, wi be carried out by an NGO in tight coordination with the BME. It wi comprise sveral points: a survey of improved stove users six months after the start of the distrition program (charcoal on, level of consmer t n, correct use of the stoves, uw of other recommended methods for imving cooking efficiency); reguar and selective qualiy control for stows manufred raftsn (by a qualifd inpector); evaluation of the manufacture and g stove (quntities produced, prices and margins, distribution network); aluation of actual sains generated for charcoal (survey of a representative sample of consmers hafay through and at the end of the progam, in 1994). 421 The total budgt for the improved stoves dittion program amounts to US$ 825,000; the breakdown of this total is Idicated in Table 4.1 (see detailed annual budget and schedule of actities in Annex XIV). This program wil be included in the Forest and Evironmental Protecton Project (as the Household Energ Conservation component, with an addiional budget of US$68,000 for implementaon pevision), to be financed mainly by IDA. Implementation of the FEPP is scheduled for the bqeining of 1992. KMA=Wot e Charcoal Sector 4.22 The priay objectve of the third component of the strategy, modernzation ofthe charcoal sector, is to reoanize and rationlize charcoa ploitao This component trgets the geographic reorentaion of charcoal offtake and the Improvement of carcoal exploitation teciniques to reduce iwronentalhil de sining and i entng the component in collaborationand agreement with local poption Activitie eaied out as pan of this component abo should sbtenghen the Eabiano Government's abity to better control charcoal tnspot espeally towards the capital, so that colection of associated taxes on the traport and marketing of charol proves more effecti Modernizaton of the charoal sector consists of two sub. comnents: (a) preparation of a Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Price, uand (b) implementation of a technical propm for charcoal producer -71 - Suppy Master Plan for Port-au-Prince 4.23 Tle Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Price targets the geographic reorientation of the wood offtake used to produce charcoal consumed in the capitkL The Master Plan wil be based on field visits as well as existing resource mappings and those that wi be prepared (fragmentaty existing data, preliminaty results of the resource inventory planned as part of the FEPP) and exsting data on wood offtake (stud results, specific complementary surveys). The Plan wil highlight two ts of zones which will receive priority during strategy iplementation: (a) preferential zones, where it would be better to locate wood offtake (among those whore charcoal exploitation already takes place), and the approximate annual offtake which would be permissible; (b) zones where the current rhythm of charcoal exploitation presents present or future environmental threats, which will be placed under obsevation and protecton, with the cooperation- of and under the responsibility of local populations and villages. 4.24 The Master Plan then must give conditions for redirecting wood offtake: (a) by establishing maps on which the principal parameters which determine the conditions for charcoal exploitaton are quantified: price of standing wood, land tenure patterns (public and private domain) and parelling of land, socio-economic profile of farmers/cacoal producers, main economic act"ies and impact of charcoal production in the rural economy, (b) by analzig the exploitation conditions in priority zones and the mecnisms by which supply networks can be reorganzed within the framework of existing mral development programs; (c) by defining a possible program for compensating chaoal producers in the zones affected by quotas. 4.25 With regard to regulating charcoal production and supply, the Master Plan should esablish the modalities to: (a) define and implement a simple and flexle mechanism for determining tnspr quotas for charcoal originating from each region, and allow for quota negotiations between the State, the local authorities and charcoal sector professionals; (b) define and implement mechanism for enforcing the geographic reasment of wood offtake by strengthenin codtrol of charcoal traport by both land and sea in Port-au-Prince, establish more hiway control posts (to control the quantities of -72- darcoal originating from the central plateau and from the south) and more control of the waterways (Ce Soleil wharf); improve the ebiti operating conditions at contol post in the capital, especia for sea tnsport (Lamantn, Mariani, Martisnt); reocate several highway control posts (around Port-au-Prilce and Cap Haten). (c) lement mcanisms for monitoring the effectivenes of the control Vtems and for periodic acgustments; (d) kdntify the princial parameters related to tation on a regional basis in order to properly orient eation wards specific zones, and propose appropriate fiscal arrangements. 4.26 During the second phase of the Master Plan, a progam of prirt actions wil be prepared for competing loses due to the restictin on charcoal exploitation in areas affected by the quotas. In each affected ditic, a united effort to identify actions specific to the local situation wM form the foundation of this program. Locl admintors and technicas wmi take the lead in defining the action program, with assistance from a speill reruited mukidscpli team consisting of two rural sociologists and two agronmiss (at least one with foresty perience and one rural engineer). Local priorities wil be defined for each disrct, with the cooperation of local authomities and popuations, and the resuting proposals wi be consolidated into a prioity action program to complement or .irengthen existng rural development proamms in these areas. Steps then wM be taken to mobilize aiional funds needed to implement the recommended actions. 427 Finaly, the Master Plan could provide the geographic skeleton for a comprehensive action program for woodfuel supply (asssac to profesionals, fores"y management, agroforety), and es ally in the framework of the strategy, alow local piorities for support to carcoal producers to be determined 428 The uboomponent for technical assistance to charcoal poducers has two basc objctives:- (a) to improve the conditions of charcoal exploitation by more selectie exploitation of available resources, to promote the use of the best techniques for catg and carbonization and to improve the charoal makers' manaeent and or of their business; (b) to complete the knowledge of fotry tchnican employed by the MARNDR concerning the oonsaint and potential action within the charcoal secor, and to -73- thus asre complementarity between pl-maing fumctions (Master Plan) and fid ations. 429 A mobile inteaetion team should be established as part of an NGO based in close proximity to the zones in question (probably in the Artibonite or the North Peninsla) to canry out the proposed assistance program. The team should consist of a forester, a trahiningtor and 10 field trainers, dvided into two carbonization teams The tas of the moble intervention team, whih will receive short-term technical ussistance from eets in arianal carbonization, wi be: (a) in the first phase, to identify and evaluate the production methods in use in the zones concerned, the problems affecting charcoal producers (eqecially with regard to access to wood), environmental problems caused by local charcoal exloitation and possible solutions; (b) to organize handsn training sessions in charcoal-making techiques in production workshops. These sessions can be offered on a regular, systematic basis in priority zones, distict by district, or they can be organized on the request of rural development organiaons (NGOs, Projects); (c) to gradually asist the organizaton of some of the charcoal makers into professional groups by helping them to acquire simple manuagement tques and tools essential for their vocation 4.30 Ihe cowmponent to modernize the charcoal sector should be implemented by a specbied tempory unit, the Woodfuels Unit (Celule Combustibles Lipeux - CCL), to be etbished within the Natural Resources Departmeu of the MARNDR. The CCLwil be provided with support from outside consultants, Haitian experts (sociologts, survey experts, charcoal makers) and by NGOs working in the field. 1Te staff of the CCL, to be reruited for the Project duration will be: (a) one Unit Chie£, a forest exploitation apert, (b) a technical team composed of a forestry inmentory expert, a sociologist, an agro- economist and a cartographer, (c) one adminitrative asitant, one secretary and three drivers. 431 The CCL wil be responsible for Pearing the Master Plan and for improving the control and monitoring of charcoal supply, as wel as for preparing the priority action program It wi supervise implementation of the progam of asists ce to charcoal producers which wil be iNplemented by a NGO. Ihe CCL also wi ensure that its activities are cloely cordinated with 33 0O 3 ii ii' 'Hi Ill a :iLi 8 ii'! ii irili I:! iqi*jt nil Ii. 18 - U sA II I. 4-..  0 0'3 eJj ,j IjfiU *g;I 3 'B-  wgO.U II Jill I10 ii :88 I, (f1Jiih Ii Is -75 - medium term (used In part to fumd the natonal foresty fund) this activity wM be coordinated with, or could be replaced by the study of woodfuel taxation and control which is pnned in the prposed Foresy and Envroment Prtecton Project; and (A) Implement a low level gs ta - a leve which does not adversely affect efforts to lower the price of this fuel in order to promote Is use in urban Haitan houseolds. Te tax wM facilitate the State's involement in new investments for the gas bem . The financial analyis of the Project arrived at a ninimum value of S US cents, asming that th State's share of investments in gas importation and disrbution I ol 20%. (d) estabish close cdtion with ongoing projects which are rlted to certain strate components (for exampe the Forestry and Envircl ".ental Protecdon Project, the AOP Project, and the nery Sector Stening *roject). 435 The SU cold be set up withn the BME or, if applicable, at a more adequate and iluential location in the new insiuonal stuctur that wi arie from isitutional by the new Overnment. SU's steA to be recrtd for the projects duradon, wM consist of (a) an enerV economis Unit Chi4 with at least five years eqxpience in the various aspects of Haidan enery policy, (b) an epert in o mpterizedata anal , (c) one adInIstrative assistant, one seoetay and one driver. 436 In addit the fowing selized wil be provided for the SU: (a) one technical advier for a three year period, (o) -from Haitian and inteaonal mperts in the folowing areas: surve oaniion and ie , computer rr mal and ura soci economic anablses, fical and leol aspe 437 i component wM be caured out over a tbree year period. Te total budg amounts to US$ 768,000 (see Table 4.1 and detiled budget in An XIV). A roZe annual budget of US$5D0,0 between 1995 and 1997 is pJanned for staff ad o ton costs of the SU, which w threfter be taken over by the host bitittion as pat of ih reglr budget. -76. 4.38 The smmarized costs for the four strategy components are presented in Table 4.1; detailed annual budgets are given in Annex XIV. The total cost of the strategy is US$ 10.5 million over the three year period 1992-1994; three-fourths in foreig exchange and sghtly less than 70% for the gas component alone 2/. Modernization of the charcoal sector represents 13% of total costs, and costs of the charcoal conseation and strategW monitoring components respectively represent 8% and 7% of the totaL Estimated annual recurrent cost begin in 1995 at US$ 200,000 and decrease to US$50,000 by 2001; these costs concern mainly the component to modernize the dcarcoal sector and to a lesser extent the Strategy's monitoring component which are to be implemented over a longer period than the other components of the strateg. A small amount of additional funds wil be required to assist the Govemment of Haiti in supervising the implementaion of the strategys components; the exact amount of these funds and the procedures for co-supervision will depend on the practies of the biateral/multlateral donors involved in the strategs financing and should be defined later with these donors. ~/ It shoud-be noted that the State's participation in these investments for developing the gs market s&ould be vety limited (the financial analysis for the strategy assumes the State's share In these investments is only 20%). -77- Tabte 4.1: Summarized Budget of the Strategy's Cowpnents US$ X of X fn for. (1000) costs currency 1. OPENING THE GAS MARKET zi 72 it Options review 86 100 S.pport to iAPP 226 84 Investments V/ 6000 89 Contingencies 1260 89 2. CHARCOAL SAVINGS l a 8 31 Product develocrxent snd coordination 98 73 Craftsmen training 48 31 Pubtiefty and field promotion 384 8 Monitoring and evaluation 104 12 Contingencies 191 26 3. NOE1UIZATION OF THE CHARCOAL SECTOR 1 13 V2 Woodfuels Unit 356 34 PAP Supply NWster PtmlaControl inprovement 375 33 Compensation Program Definition 198 25 Technical Assfstance to Charcoal amkers 305 20 Contingencies 123 30 4. STRATEGY MONITORING m 7 Oa Staff 108 0 Techn!cal Assistance 420 71 Miscellaneous 170 79 contfngeniefs 70 63 GRAND TOTAL 3/ iER isM 1/ Of iwhch 80% prIvate. Investment included in FEPP. ;I Of which only US$S.8 mfilion are pubife sector investment. fanchia and Ewoonmic An"s 439 The simplified economic and financia analysis for the strategy is summaried in Table 4.2 and 43. Economic benefits of the strategYs implementaton which are accounted for in this simplfied analyis come mainly from the value of charcoal that is saved through the programs of LPG substitution and improved stoves di tion. Implementing the modernization of the cdroa sector wil transform part of charcoal production into an environment-benign activity in certain zones of production and limit the impact of this activity in other zones, which are indeed the potendaLl larger benefits of the strategy. However, it is dear that the extend of these benefits wi depend on the Government interventions on the other causes of environment degradation in Haiti (in the framework of a global strategy for natural resources management) as well as an efficiency of the strateg's quota system; therefore these benefits are fficult to quantify and have not been considered in the simplified economic analsis of this study. Also the costs and benefits of the compensation program for areas affected by quotas, to be defined later and to be implemented through mecanisms beyond the scope of the proposed strategy, cannot be accuately estimated at this stage, and thus have been ealuded from the anabsis. -78- 4.40 the strategs impact on public fices can be evaluated through the fina al analys; the finanal intnal rate of return (IRR) is calculated at 10%. Ihe analyi is based on the following assumptions: (a) Improved collection of charcoal taxes amounting to a collection rate of 60% of the tota due In 1996 (Le. sx times the colection rate in 1990) and the same rate thereafter, the MARNDR's ongoing efforts to improe tax collection rates should help make it possUle to achieve this objective; the analysis also takes into acoount the loss of charcoal taxes that would have been recovered in absence of the strategy (with a higher total charcoal consumption), (b) a tax on gas beginning in 1992 of 5 cents per gaflon, equivaent to only 3% of the 1990 rta pric lte L2: Fihnc8f t antlysis (1000U) 199 1 1994 19 19ff 199? 199 1999 20 2001 Project conts 1511 1141 3195 200 200 200 100 100 SO SO Charcoattazw 4 10 22 30 39 49 60 70 7 Ub Totl 1515 1151 31T7 M M9 21 1s 1T 123 1V --I'l'S Charcel tas 122 242 344 49 541 S24 495 484 499 515 ahstune 28 344 43U 541 64S m n 920 965 Sb otol 122 4908 6 12 1082 1169 121 1361 1419 U14 saance .-1393 -661 -2529 652 843 921 1110 1191 1296 1353 Cosoldated -1393 -2054 -4583 -3931 -3088 -216? -105? 134 1430 2783 FIRS 9.8% WPV (10) -28 4.41 The ewnomic analysi shows the strate's impacts on the national economy, especially those related to the balance of payments and rducing nvionmental destructi. Ihe economic IRR was calulated at 40%, based on the following assumptions: 79 - (a) The economic value of the wood saved by implementation of the strategy 12/ is estimated at US$160/ton of saved charcoal, equivalent to its economic value for environmental impacts (see Annex XI),; (b) reduction of gas transport costs relative to costs for the volumes which would have been sold if no strategy were implemented is estimated at US$ 100 per ton on average for the period 1994.2001; (c) additional gas imports would cost in average US$250 per ton over the 1991-2001 period, and imports of gas cooking appliances would cost an average of US$150 for each new gas-using household for the period 1992.2001. ableau 4-3: Econmf c AnMlysf (100S) 19M 1993 1994 199S 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Project eosts 1511 1263 7755 200 200 200 100 100 50 S0 Equipment 1iports 597 927 1942 1794 2188 2097 2601 2082 739 775 Gas iqmorts 286 731 1663 2525 3575 4581 5830 6829 7184 7556 Sb Totot 2394 2921 11360 4519 S9C3 6878 8531 9011 7973 8381 m1zIS CharcoaL svings 885 2146 4719 6471 857 10644 13171 15220 16024 16888 aas savlngs 689 717 747 778 810 843 878 914 Oh Total 5 214 4581 o 7V5 MS 11070 fT 152 185 talnce -1509 -m -5952 2669 3382 4544 5450 7052 8929 9422 consotidated -1509 -2284 -8236 -5567 -2185 2359 7809 14861 23790 33212 EIRR 40.3X WiV t10X) 13509 4.42 Risk linked to strategy implementation were evidenced in the previous chaptes; they relate to several aspects: technical, social, economic, financial and intionaL However, these ris are quite limited relative to the envronmental risk aoed wth not implementing this strategy. In addition, the financing required for the strateg is relatively small, and implementing the strategy in phases and under monitoring of the Steering Unit wil allow necessi adjustments to be made, if needed. 1/ Without taking into account wood savings generated by the prosed assitnce program for dcarcoal producers. In fact, since the program only affects a limited number of charcoa producers because the real obtainable improvement rates for c ion efficiencies are uncrtali, wood savig from this progam wi be much smaller than the savings generated by use of improved stoves. -80- 4.43 In technical areas, risks are asociated with market penetration rates for LPO and improved charcoal stoves; target rates for the strategy may be over optimistic. However, the market study has yiel firly reliable projections; also, the impacts of lower penetration rates on the economic and financial viabflity of the strategy are limited. For example, if as were used as the primary cooking fuel in only 35% of the households in the capital, and 15% in other cities, the finmcial rate of return would decrease by only 15% (in absolute terms) and the economic rate of retur by 1%. The impacts due to lower distribution rates for stoves are even less Furthermore, negative technical impacts c4ald easiy be counterbalnced by appropriate taing poLicies applied to the as price. For. example, a collection rate for charcoal taxes amounting only to 30% at the end of five years (instead of the 60% rate targeted by the strategy) can be balanced by a gas tax increase of 12 US cents per gaplon; this represents an increase of less than 1% relative to the retail pric 4.44 In the area of social and human risks, the most substantial impacts wil be those generated by resricting charcoal exploitation in zones affected by quotas or prohibiions. The producers and transporters in these zones will initially attempt - certainly not without sue - to circumvent the quota sstem. However, dialogue with local authorities, gradual increases in effective enforcement of quotas and priority actions programs for compensation should limit these risks in the medium term 4.45 On the economic level, there are certain risks surrounding the evolution of international LPG prices, as well as the economic value of charcoal in terms of its impact on the environment. With regard to the latter, a rather consenative value was retained in the anabes; given the various growing pressures on Haities environment, the value wil tend to increase. If the average price of LWO during 1992-2001 is US$350 per ton (1990 dollars), instead of the timated US$250, the economic IRR would still be quite acceptable (23%). Finally, the impa of LPG imports on the balance of payments would remain limited; in 2001, LPG imports at this higher price would represent less than 6% of the value of exports in 1990. 4.46 Istitutiona risk are much higher, since they involve financial human and political conraints, as previously cited. However, the proposed approach for the strategy is helpful in mitigating the rik due to the weaknesses of subsector istitutions - invong consmers and producers in the definition and implementation of the strategy, decentralizng aciitis and giving specific roles to local authoriies, coordination and monitg by tempory units estblied epecially for the project, partial subcontracting of implementation to organizations and associations already operating in the field, strengthening the regulatory role of the State. 4.47 As discussed previously, one component of the strateg - large-scale distribution of improved charcod stoves - is included in the IDA's proposed Forestry and Envronmental - 81 - Protection Project. Thn other components wil be part of the National Energy Plan which i being prepared by the BME with asse from OLADE and the UNDP in the Haiti Energy Setor Strengthening Project. The Strategys components should also be among the programs that wil confirm the Tropical Forest Action Plan for Haiti, w is being prpared under the supervision of FAO and the UNDP. Considering the urgency of implementing the strategy, obtaining the necessay financing should be among the Government's priorities and should be relatively eay, given the recent increase of international assistance to Haiti The Miniy of Planning, with possible assistance from the BME and the MARNDR, should first explore possibilities for bilateral financing from lenders already active in Haiti's energy sector, woodfuels subsector and fonsty sector, especialy France, Canada, USAID and Germany. Canada, France and the Eurpean Economic Communities (EEC) have already txpressed interest in financing actions to limit the impact of charcoal use in the environment. Finaly, other resources might also be tapped at the level of international donors, e.g from programs supported or supervised by the World Bank, such as the Haiti Economic and Socal Fund, ESF (for instance to finance cific compesation programs in areas under charcoal production quotas) or the recently created Global Environment Fcility (GEF). 82- AnnexeI Page 1 de 8 RESSOURCES FORESTIERES ET DEFORESTATION VOWMES SUR PIED EN 1978 Suac I Stock (1000 ha) (%) (1000 m3) (%) Forets doe fulilus denses 21.9 1% 3291 7% degrades 62.1 2% 3103 6% secondaires 97.9 4% 3916 8% Forets de pin denses 9.2 0% 1373 3% clalres 24.7 1% 1112 2% tres claires 47.4 2% 711 1% Formations agropasufales forets de prosopis 11.8 0% 710 1% Rack bols (donse) 99.2 4% 2975 6% Formations bulsonnantes (claires) 176.9 6% 3538 7% Mangroves 17.0 1% 850 2% Cultures arborees denses 199.6 7% 7984 16% (vergers, cafeleres) Cultures arborees et vergers clairs 453.1 16% 9062 18% Rest. de l'espace 1548.8 56% 10840 22% (cultures herbacees, jacheres courtes, savanes, a.meurements, etc...) TOTAl._ 2769.5 100% 49485100% VOWMES SUR PIED EN 1988 Surfaces Stock (1000 ha) l%) (1 000 m3) (%) Forets de feullus denses 14 1% 2100 4% degradees 50 2% 2500 5% secondaires 80 3%. 3200 6% Forots de pin denses 8 0% 1200 2% claires 20 1% 600 1% tres caires 40 1% 520 1% Formatlons agropastorales forets de prosopis 5 0% 250 1% Rack bols (dense) 100 4% 2500 5% Formations bulsonnantes (daires) 185 7% 2405 5% Mangroves 15 1% 525 1% Cultures arborees donses 170 6% 5100 10% (vergers, cafeleres) Cultures atboroes et vergers clairs 400 14% 6400 13% Restl de I'ospace 1682 61% 10095 20% (cultures herbacess, Jacheres courtes, savanes, affleurements, etc...) TOTAL 2769 1006 37395 76% SoLUrc B.Q.PA., 1989 83- Annexe I Page 2 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHARBON DE 8018 SUR LA RESSOURCE FORESTIERE Variante deo fa (a par doe donnees S.D.P.A, 1989) HYPOTHESES: A. Hypotheses sur l'offre 00~ 17 342 0.ies**~.* Croit moyen du bole: 8. par an Rythme annuel de plantaon: 3 millions de plods survivants Croit annuel d'l pled: 10 Kg/an B. Hypotheses sur la demande Croissance population rurale: 1.40% Consommaton rurale de bols: 500 Kg/cap/an Croissance populaton urbaine: 3.15% Consommatlon charbon on 1989: 305 000Tonnes soit par capita: 0.52 Kg/cap/our Croissanceoconsommatlon do charbon: 3.15% RESULTATS: 1990 200 20101 202 Resource forestero: r I 1371 -1511 (Millions de tonnes) Consommatlon de charbon 3151 4291 5851 7981 (Miluors de tonnes) -84- Annexl Page 3 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIOUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHAlWEN DE BOIS SUR LA FIESSOURCE FORESTIERE Variante: ressource forestiire de 1978 supdrieure de 25 96 HYPOTHESES: A. Hypothiso mut l'ot.re Stockdo n 1978:e ble* 83 03 ;T ! i: Croit moyen du bois: 8 par an Rythme annuel de plantation: 3 millions de plods survlvants Crolt annuel d'l piod: I10 Kglan B. Hypothbfo our la demande Croissance population rura;e: 1.409 Consommation rurale de bois: 500 Kglcaplan Croissance population prbaine: 3.15% Consommation charbon on 1989: 305 1000 Tonnes soit par capita: 0.52 Kglcap/jour Croissance consommation do charbon 3.15 RESULTATS: 1990 2000 2010 2020 Flessouroo torestre: 60 68 65 68 (Millions de tonnes) Consommation deocharbon 3151 429 | 685 798 (Milliers de tonnes) * 85. -nnexe I Page 4 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENEFtGETIQUE DE BOIS DE IFEU ET DE CfFON DE 10.' -AJR LA lESSOURCE FORESnTEFE Variante : acodliration du rebolsement agroforestier HYPOTHESES: A. Hypoth6sos sur ron re Stock de bole en 1978: 34626 000 Tonnos Crott moyen du bois: 8. par an ...hme nnuon do p 2 n oon ;: . :. m Crott annuel d'1 pied: 10 Kglan - . HYpoth&s our la demande Croissance population rurale: 1 .40I Consommation rurale de bois: ,00 |Kg/caplan Croissance population urbaine: 3.15§c Consommation charbon on 1989: 305 000 Tonnes Solt par capita: 0.52 Kg/capljour Croissanco consommation do charbon 3.16. RESULTATS: 1990 2000 2010 2020 Pessouros torsotbre: 291 19 1 201- 361 (Millions de tonnes) Ccnsornmatlon de charbon| 3151 429 | 685 798 (Milliers de tonnes) -86 -Anng,I Page 5 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CON90MMATION ENEFriEfIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU Er DE CHAWMON DE BOIS SUR LA FRESSOURCE FOiREsTE Variante: r6duction de moiti de la consommation totale de charbon de bois on 2000 HYPOTHESES: A. Hypoth6sos fur Poffre Stock do bois on 1978: l 42Jooo Torines Crott moyon du bole: 8[ par an Rythme annuel de plantation: 3 millions de plods survivants Crott annuel d'l pied: 10 KJgIan EL Hypotheses sur la demands Crotssanoe population ruralJ: 1.40% Consommation rurale do bols: 500 Kglcaplan Croissance population urbaine: 3.165t Consommation charbon on 1989: 305 000 Tonnes soit par capita: 0.52 Kg/oapljour rolssancosomrn o * Dn . 460 * ;i.- - .i RESULTATS: 1 901 2000 2010 2020 FIsswourcoreetl6re | 291 19 | 71 -165 (Millions de tonnes) Consommation de charbon 1 31 161 | 82 | 42 (Milliors de tonnos) - 87 Annexe I Page 6 de 8 IMPACT DE LA OONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU Er DE CIARBON DE BOIS SUR LA PRESSOUJFCE FORESTERE Variante: disparition du charbon de bois A Port-au-Prinoe on 2000 HYPOTHESES: AL Hypotheos our lXoffre etook de bola on 1978: 34626 000 Tonnes Cro't moyen du bois: 8 par an Rythme annuel do plantation: 3 millions de pieds survivants Crott annuol dI plod: 10 Kglan S. Hlypothes sur la dermando Croissano. population rurale: 1.40 Consommation rurale de bois: 500 Kgtcaplan Croissanoo population urbaine: 3.159 Consommation charbon on 1989: 305 000 Tonnes soit par capita: 0.52 Kgloapliour *Croissanoeoconsommation do charbon -16.00 ; . : : ..:; .i . RIESULTATS: r 199 2000 2010 2020 flessourco trestlbro: 2r 231 231 241 (Millions de tonnes) Consommaon de ocharbon 315 62 12 2 (Milliers de tonnes) -88 &U= I Page 7 de 8 F1iure A1.1: Ressource Forast1ere et Cons4miatton de Cadbist1ble Analyse de SensibilltW CMsIollb de tonrm) 70 . 60_ Ressource forestI Ire de 12 supEr leUre X ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ UI~~aLnte de 1ars -to -Ressource for re de 1978 InfErleure de % 797990100 20340566S6070990 9 09894 9 09 0 0 2 8 67 e 010111213S1117 191020 AnnEs Fiaure A1.2: Ressource Forest1ere et Consronetton de Cowbustfbte La Solution Agroforestllre (0MOMde tonnes) Plantation agroforestl Ire 23 millions de pleds survivntpr n 10 Varlante de base 0~~ 70790001029249540807900e 09e02920940098970999 0 1 2 5 9 9 0101112121151117101020 AnnEs 89- Am=nL I Page 8 de 8 F A1.3i: Ressource Foresttir at Concimtfon de Cotrbtl &ubstftutlons lodmrlo 1 40 IIltlor d tonnflf d& bole) (Tonnes de cherbon) 40 _._1000 --- Boo so - RESSOUR C IERE 20 15 GONSOMMATION - -REduction de moitiE OE CHARBON. 2gJ@ \ cse la consommatlon 10 Charbon Ce bols ------ ---- 200 5 0 O799l0018293948S56876999091929S94959979599 0 1 6-k4 5 8 7 9 4011121 51617131920 Annle jMXr.LA1.4: Ressource Foresttire et Consaumtton de Caobustfble Substitution: Scftrio 2 ( Mllions de tonnos de bole) (ronnes Cie chwrbon) 0 25 s oo RESSOUC STIERE Yar I 25 m oo 20 _ 400 - CONSOMMATION DE CHARBON 10 \ \ Disparitlon progressive al i consommax on de charbon de bola o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . i o ..................... 7S70608132U3948586786689000192SS9495969798S9 0 1 4 5 6 78 0 1011121314151617181920 Annft 90 Annex II Page 1 de 4 PRIX DE LWENERGE DANS LES CARAIBES Er EN AMERIQUE CENTRALE PRIX DES COMBUSTBLES DANS LES CARAIBES ET EN AMERIQUE CENTRALE LP.G.I Kerosne Diesel Electricite domestique _($($/kg] LS/BBL) ($/BBL) ($/kWh) Barbades 0.96 43.7 16.0 Costa Rica 0.27 44.3 44.3 4.1 Cuba 0.24 13.4 10.4 9.0 Grenade * .08 47.8 68.9 Guatmala 0.18 36.7 35.0 6.0 Honduras 452 50.8 10.0 JamaquA 0.44 28.4 49.7 Nicaragua 0.11 23.9 36.5 20 Panama 0.19 46.2 50.0 8.0 Rp. Dominicaine 0.09 18.2 . 16.5 4.7 Trinidad et Tobag 0.39 28.8 24.4 4.0 Sou OADE, pdx de JuIh 199 * 91 *nT P2 de 4 FluJr RL.: Prix di G.P.L. an Juin 19 wenade- Haitl Cnominal) Haiti (revise) Jamslque Trinidad et Tobago _ Cost Rica_" Cuba _ anazma Guaterwala_ Nicaragua POP. DOMIn [co - - - - - 0 0.2 0o4 0.6 0.o 1 1.2 1.4 (S/ kg) Malt, r! OLAOIR HBiti Mee: is. on eernpte do is pri BurW leir Ff w AU: Prix du Wrosim an Jutn 198 - - Haiti (nominal) I t - 6 Grenade -- Panama .t- Honduras Cost Pica - - - Uarads* _- _ |4 Heiti (revise) - Z GSuatemal Is _ _ - m Trinidad et Tobago - Jarnaique . _ _ 4 Nlcaragua Rep. Dorminicaln@e_ CUba 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 (C/ SBL) Sto ree CILAos aiUi revit. : glee on corpte de to prirm our e lir .92 - =_U Pag 3 de 4 Ffg 6AZs PrIx du Dfsoo on Juin 1989 Haiti (nominat) Honduras - - __ Panama - - - _ Haiti (revise) _z Jamaique - - _ Cost RIca. Nicaragua - Guaterala. - - m TrInkdaLd et Tobago Rep. Oominicalne Cuba o 10 ea 30 40 50 s0 70 80 ($/ 13BL) Souice : OLADE Haiti revi"se prie en copte cms i prinie our iso oitr PlaInLg 6 Prix d tiElctricft6 D=uttqu an juin 1989 f-- _-___ -Wtl crnornnal) _ _ _ _ ..O|... Barbado s U iti Crvoe) - __ _ Cub -a Panama - _ Guatemala Rep. Dotminicalne Costs a -ic TrInidac ot Tobago Nicaragua o 5 10 15 20 CUi CentJssswh prait our m Isar 93 Annexe II Page 4 de 4 PRIX MOYENS DES COMBUSTIBLES ET DES RECHAUDS A HAm ET EN REPUBUQUE DOMINICAINE Hatf I Rp. Dominicaine _ Gourde US$ Peso) US Combustbles (prbc de detail au kilo_ ___U __I to___ Charbon de bols 1.05 0.16 2.00 0-31 Kerosene 2.40 0.34 0.69 0.11 | Gaz propane 3.66 0.62 0.63 0.10 Gaz butane 5.45j 0.78 Rechauds tradilionnels a charkon Rechaud rond ou cwre 9 I 8.5 1.3 Rechaud type potsll so_ 11.4_ 1 65 10.2 Rechauds amellores a charbon Rechaud B.M.E.1 35 5.0 Prix normal auproducteur IRechaud A.F.V.P. 20 2.9J Prix au producteur Rechauds a kerosene I '.u 100 14 1851 29 2feux 155 22 240 38 3 feux 300 43 400 63 Rechauds a propane _ 2 feux 300 43 215 34 (1) 3 feu, 425 61 250 39 (1) 4feux + four| 1500 214 1200 189 (1) (2) Bombonne vide de 25 kgl 500 79 Bombonnevidede50kg 11001 157_ (3) Rechauds a butane Bip feul 1861 277 NOTES: Hall: 1 US$ 5 7 Gourdes prix mars 1990 Republgque Domlnicaine: 1 US$ s 6.35 Pesos prix mars 1989 (1) Bombonne non comprise (2) Prix minmum (3) InstallatIn comprise 94 & Antixlll Page I de 5 FoYERS EN USAGE A HAITI 0~~~~~~ .1 * ,-* o,s. . ........ ,.- * 95 * Ann= II Page 2 de 5 >e~ts dvoe .~ Q . ri.t Q/ec ckux (Kiomac a - 96 - Annexe II Page 3 de 5 GRILLE VASQUE BRULEUR - d 1- ~~~~~ROBINET ff . ll tR~~~TFEPIED RESERVOIR "907" 131P (71 c4ir;) 1t?SUJ4b X t) 97 . Annexe III Page 4 de 5 v . ,s,"_ ~~~~- R .......v... . fte COor@ -# ' Ecr ._* t-'~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ re_7 t:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~S r;:p; p.> tt crakm6. *4e. deu 4/ C ' s ;s ,'e. ' :ef ccxl4tcn 0CC ug feU er we*SaV °rao) E , , ,-:b Cx l s - - S i s - A fii -[ C C :Bs a Sc#;s- --p Nt, t t a A S -/ g * ;4 c U . 99 * AnneeM ENTREES DE CHARDON DE BOIS A PORT-AU-PRINCE PROVENANCE DU CHARBON OF 8018 CONSOMME A PORT-AU-PRINCE A. COMPTAGE ENTREE EN VILLE (UNE SEMAINE, FEVRIER 1990 x 52) Mode d transpor ._ . . 0 :>. Route ^ % Nor %< Mel -. . Total_ Departement Nord 5280 8% 0 0% 5280 6% Nord-Ouest 8402 13% 5140 29% 13542 16% Artibonite 16426 25% 0 0% 16426 19% Centre 2278 3% 0 0% 2278 3% Ouest 16992 26% 28 0% 17019 20% La Gonave 2247 3% 3893 22% 6139 7% Grande-Anse 7969 12% 8817 49% 16786 20% Sud 2300 3% 0 0% 2300 3% Sud Est 3369 5% 32 0% 3401 4% Non identfie 1077 2% 0 0% 1077 1% TOTAL 66340 100% 17908 100% 84249 100% I _%___ 79% 21% . 100%_ B. CONTROLE SERVICES FORESTIERS (PREMIER TRIMESTRE 1989 x 4) . : . . Z Mode d transport __._. _ _________*;__ Route . Mr % : Total% Departement Nord 536 4% 0 0% 536 2% Nord-Ouest 931 7% 4737 51% 5668 26% Ardbonite 3465 28% 109 1% 3574 16% Centre 4284 34% 0 0% 4284 20% Ouest 0 0% 3850 42% 3850 18% La Gonave 0 0% 147 2% 147 1% Grande-Anse 3173 25% 423 6% 3595 17% Sud 0 0% 0 0% 4 0% Sud Est 61 0% 0 0% 61 0% Non identfle 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% TOTAL 12449 100% 9265 100% 21714 100% %I 57% 43% __ 100% .- C. REDRESSEMENT DU COMPTAGE DES ENTREES j~; > Y Mode do transpbrt .:__ _____________ ~Rout Mer Tta % Doepartement Nord 5280 7% 0 0% 5280 4% Nord-Ouest 8402 10% 18948 40% 27350 21% Artbonite 16426 20% 0 0% 16426 13% Centre 17135 21% 0 0% 17135 13% Ouest 16992 21% 1S399 33% 32391 25% La Gonave 2247 3% 3893 8% 6139 5% Grande-Anse 7969 10% 8817 19% 16786 13% Sud 2300 3% 0 0% 2300 2% Sud-Est 3369 4% 32 0% 3401 3% Non identie 1077 1% 0 0% 1077 1% TOTAL 81197 100% 47089 100% 128286 100% ff 63% . 37% 100%_ - 100 - Annexe V Page 1 de 4 TUCIURES DE PREX DU GAZ ET DU KEROSENE COMJPARAISON DES STRUCTURES DE PIUX DU KER)SENE ET DU GAZ Prix au d6tall Kerosene Butane Propane Avrll 1990 Avril 1990 Avrl 1990 (CentsIGal) 96 (CentslGaI) 96 (Cents/0al) 96 Prix F.O.8. 58.0 39 34.0 15 29.0 19 Transport 2.2 1 28.8 13 29.7 20 Drolt consulaire 1.7 1 1.0 0 0.9 1 Prix C.I.F. 61.9 4290 63.8 2991 69.6 409 Droits do wharfago 0.9 196 0.7 091 0.6 0 Droits de douans 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Droats d'aocess 60.0 34 0.0 0 6.0 3 Prix ex-douane 112.9 769S 64.5 29 66.2 43 Marge des compagnies 29.1 20 106.1 47 78.8 453 _ M_largo dos dkstributeurs 7.0 5 64.0 24 6.0 4 Prix i la Pompe 149.0 100 223.6 100 150 100t Total marges 36.1 24f 159.1 71 84.8 57 Pdx do r6nergie utile Kerosene Butane Propane Avri 1990 Avrl 1990 Avrl 1990 ________________ 0~~($/i) 6 9$GJ 6 9 6 Prix F.O.B. 10.8 39 7.2 16 5.1 19 Transport 0.4 11 f.1 13 . 5.3 20 Droit consulairo 0.3 1 0.2 0 0.2 1 PrixC.IF. 11.5 4290 13.6 299 10.6 409 Drolts de wharfage 0.2 1 0.1 0 0.1 0 Drolts de douane 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 Drolts d'accises 9.3 34 0.0 0 0.9 3 Prix ex-douane 20.9 7696 13.7 29 11.5 43 Mlg. des compagnles 6.4 209 22.3 47t 14.0 63 Mlage des distributours 1.3 5 11.5 24 f 1.1 4f Prix Ia Pompe 27.6 10096 47.6 100l 26.6 100 _ Total marges 6.7 249 33.8 719f 1.0 7 Source: G.A.P.P. (K6rosene, Propane), Shell (Butane) - 101 - Annexe V Page 2 de 4 LA FACTURE DU GAZ Possibillt6s de r6ducton maximum des coOts 2.400.000 $/an PRIXCONTRAUEL 5 CENTS AU DESSUS DU PRIX , POSTING SPOT CARAJES PROPANE CoOt a r6conomle 1200.000 $/an Cents/Gallon FOB: 29 COUTDETRANSPORT Transport, fret: 30 ELEVEQUILSERAIT POSSIBLE DE DIMINUER DE 20 CENTS CIF: 59 Coot a !6conomle Drolts: 6 700.000 $/an Marges cumul6es: 85 Prix de vente: 150U DE2 FOIS ENViRON CoOt a P6conomle 1.500.000 $/an - 102 - Annvr2L Page 3 de 4 COMPARAISON DES STRUCTURES DE PRIX DU KEROSENE ET DU GAZ (PRIX DU G.P.L REVISES) Prk au detail Kerosene Butane Propane Avril 199 Avrl 1990 Avr 1990 c_ensa % (Ces/Gui) % (Cents/Gal) % Prix F.O.B. 58.0 39% 34.0 5_% 29.0 48% Transport 22 1% 10.0 16% 10.0 17% Drolt consubire 1.7 1 % 1.0 2% 0.9 1% Prbi C.l.F. 61.9 42% 45.0 74% 39.9 66% Drolt de wharfage 0.9 1% 0.7 1% 0.6 1% Drolt de douane 0.0 0% 0.0 0% 0.0 0% Dros cacclmes 50.0 34% 0.0 0% 5.0 8% Prx ex-douane 112.9 76% 45.7 75% 45.4 75% Marge des conpagnles 29.1 20% 12.2 20% 12.1 20% Marge des distrlbuteurs 7.0 5% 3.0 5% 3.0 5% Prix is Ponpe 149.0 100% 60.9 100% 60.6 100% Tota marges 36.1 24% 15.2 25% 15.1 25% Pr de rnergis ute Kerosen Butane Propane Av,111990 Avril1990 AvrilI 99 _ ) % ($/J)1 % (A PrIxF.O.B. 10.8 39% 7.2 56% 5.1 48% Transport 0.4 1% 2.1 16% 1.8 17% Droltconsulre 03 1% 02 2% 02 1% Pkx C.I.F. 11.5 42% 9.6 74% 7.1 66% Droltsdewharlage 02 1% 0.1 1% 0.1 1% Drots de douane 0.0 0% 0.0 0% 0.0 0% Drob d'acclses 9.3 34% 0.0 0% 0.9 8% Prkx ex-douane 20.9 76% 9.7 75% 8.0 75% Marge des compagnies 5.4 20% 2.6 20% 2.1 20% Marge des distibuteurs 1.3 5% 0.6 5% 0.5 5% Prix laPompe 27.6 100% 13.0 100% 10.7 100% Total marges, 6.7 24% 3.2 25% 2.7 25% -103 - *nnee V Page 4 de 4 Stucture Regionale des Prix du Charbon de Bois En Gourdes par sac Nonb. PrIx. Coto Magees P Nord-Ouest 19 13.6 10.3 6.4 30.3 Sud-Ouest 22 15.2 7.0 6.1 28.3 Ouest 26 16.9 7.3 5.6 29.8 Arbonite/Centre 7 14.7 5.4 4.9 25.4 Sud 3 10.0 6.1 8.9 25.0 Nord/Nord-Est 6 10.7 5.4 8.9 25.0 Sud-Est 2 16.5 4.5 5.0 26.0 Rep. Dominlcalne _ 3 10.8 8.8 2.0 25.0 Notes: (a) Le cout de transport Inclut le cout de chargement, dechargement et la taxe (b) Enquete realisee pendant /a saison seche (c) Cout b3nsport par bateau: 4.5-5.5 Gourdes parsac (d7 Cout banspot par vehiule: 7-10 Gourdes par sac Source: Enquete ESMAP/BME/OLADE/PNUD de 90 transporteurs, Avl 1990. - 104 -Annexe VI Page 1 de 7 COUTS FINANCIERS ET ECONOMIQUES DE CUISSON COUTS FINANCIERS COMPARES DE CUISSON, PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 A. CUISINE AU CHARBON DE BOIS Foyer .t oPotaje tradtfon anietore tradtion amellore Unit d'achat S: . c Sdc Sac Combustible Prix de detail $ 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Poids kg 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 Prix de detail $/kg 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 Valour calorifique MJ/kg 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 Cout energie finale $/GJ 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Efficacite foyer 21% 27% 21% 27% Ct nri3 utile$14 348 26. $4><.8 28.9 Equipement Prixd'achat $ 2 4 16 20 Duree de vie an 1 1 1 1 Amortissement $/an 2.1 4.3 17.1 21.4 Energie finale MJ/an 4500 4500 4500 4500 Cout equipement $/GJ 0.5 1.0 3.8 4.8 Total Wl,;".-;l Y t NOTES: Titre en grise, cas existant, sinon alternatives possibles. Prix en $ haitien (a 5 Gourdes) 105 Annexe V1 Page 2 ce 7 COUTS FINANCIERS COMPARES DE CUISSON, PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 B. CUISINE AU KEROSENE Foyer . PReichaud R Rechaud Rechaud mc mochos pression pression Unit d'achat ;Gallon T iDIe Gallon Bouteille Combustible Prix de6d fil $ 1.5 0.4 1.5 0.4 Poids kg 3.1 0.6 3.1 0.6 Prix de detail $/kg 0.48 0.65 0.48 0.65 Valeur calorifique MJlkg 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.5 Cout energie finale $1GJ 11.0 15.0 11.0 15.0 Efficacite foyer % 35% 35% 45% 45% Equipsment Prbx d'achat $ 31 31 50 50 Duree de vie an 5 5 5 5 Amortissement $/an 15.1 15.1 14.6 14.6 Energie finale MJ/an 4500 4500 4500 4500 Cout equipement $/GJ 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Total F .:-* Coutt'ti ,d e.ouls-f $/G 34.9 U1 CjsI.R 27 NOTES: tire on grise, cas existant, sinon altematives possibles. Prix en $ hation (a 5 Gourdes) Achat on °moyen detai : bouteille a rhum de 2 gourdes Prix d'achat minimum d'un foyer 2 feux L'amortissement des rechauds a kerosene comprend 20 % pour la maintenance et les pieces detachees On compte en plus 6 $ par an de meches pour les rechauds a meches ^ 106- Annee VI Page 3 de 7 COUTS FINANCIERS COMPARES DE CUISSON, PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 C. CUISINE AU GAZ Foyer Cuisiniere Cuisiniere Rechaud Rechaud Bip Bip Combustible Propane Propane Butane Butane Unit d'achat Bombonne Bombonne Bombonne Bombonne Prix Actuels Revises Actuels Rviss Combustible Prix de detail $ 9.0 9.0 3.0 3.0 Polds kg 12.50 12.50 2.75 2.75 Prix de dtail $/kg 0.72 0.30 1.09 0.30 Valeur calorifique MJ/kg 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 Cout energie finale $/GJ 15.8 6.5 23.9 6.5 Efficacite foyer % 60 60% 50% 50% Ooutenegle til $JG 2.3Z :: 0.;8 :7 13.0X : Equipement . . Prbid'achat $ 120 120 37i 37 Dureedevie an 10 10 5 5 Amorissement $/an 20.5 20.5 10.8 10.8 Energie finale MJ/an 4500 4500 4500 4500 Cout equipement $/GJ 4.6 4.6 2.4 2.4 Total ~~Gout otId cuissdn $IGJ 3/0.8115.3 515.4 NOTES: Titre en gri se, cas existant, sinon altematives possibles. Prix en $ haltien (a 5 Gourdes) On compto 60 $ pour l'achat de la bonbonne. Le prix du rechaud a propane ( 2 feux a 60 $) est un des moins cher rencontres en Hait. L'amortissement des rechauds a gaz comprend 20 % pour la maintnance et les pieces detachees 107 AnnVI Page 4 de 7 FIufg..M.1: CoOts de Cuisine soelon les Foyers et C ustibles Port-au*Prince, 1990 COUTS DE CUISINE SELON LES FOYERS ET COMBUSTIBLES PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 e RoiUen/GJ uUle Rip AoAat du keromWe -vu petit det.it SO.- . l f Pression Cuioiniere 50. Weebe~~~OOhs propane Pri duga r.zvinO 40 -Pressioa Cuiualdaet Di1p propane 20- Potaje Road PotAje AMC). Rood .mel _Carbou do bois 6X Kerosee ne C., - 108- A,nnexe M Page 5 de 7 COUT ECONOMIQUE ACTUEL DES COMBUSTIBLES Charbon Financier Econom. $ Hatien US$ /sac /sac Bol$ 0.7 0.5 Fabrication, commerce 7.1 5.0 Taxe 0.2 0.0 Cout 8.0 5.6 Kerosene I_ Butane Propane Financier Econom. Financielr Econom. Financier Econom. H Cent US Cent H Cent US Cent H Cent US Cent /Gailon /Gallon Ik*allon /Gallon /Gallon /Gailon Prix C.i.F. 61.9 61.9 63.8 63.8 59.6 59.6 Droits de wharfage 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 Taxes 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 Marge des compagnles 29.1 26.2 105.1 94.6 78.8 70.9 Marge des distributeurs 7.0 4.9 54.0 37.8 6.0 4.2 Cout 149.0.:- 3 223.6 198. 150.0 1:35.1 Marge pe*t detail 52.8 36.9 Cout petit detail 201.8 130.8 NOTES: Couts financlers exprimes en $ et cents haltiens (1 pour 5 gourdes) Couts economlques: Revenus locaux (bois, fabrication et commerce du charbon, marges detail sur les produits petrollers) : deflateur 0,7 Marges des compagnies petrolleres: deflateur 0,9 109- Ann= VI Page 6 de 7 COUT ECONOMIQUE THEORIQUE DES COMBUSTIBLES Charbon I Financier Econom. $ Halen US$ /sac /cac Bois 2.2 1.5 Fabrication, commerce 7.1 5.0 Taxe 0.2 0.0 Cout 9.5 0 Kerosene Butane Propane Financier Econom. Financier Econom. Financier Econom. H Cent US Cent H Cent US Cent H Cent US Cent /Gallon /Gailon /Gailon /Gallon /Gailon /Gailon Prix i.F. 61.9 61.9 45.0 45.0 39.9 39.9 Droits do wharfage 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 Taxes 50.0 , O.G 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 Marge des compagnies 29.1 26.2 12.2 11.0 12.1 10.9 Marge des distributeurs 7.0 4.9 3.0 2.1 3.0 2.1. Cout 149.0 93,7 60.9 ;$8.5 60.6 ;j5$.3 Marge petit detail 62.8 36.9 Cout pett detail 201.8 130.6 NOTES: Memes hypotheses que pour Is cout economique actuel Cout economique du bois fonde sur 1'estimatlon F.A.O. de 7.7 US$/tonne pour une plantation energetique Transport et margs revisoes sur le gaz -110 -An=V Page 7 de 7 FiaKi AU: CoOt Econaiqu Actuel Solon los Foyers et Caorbttebls Port-au-Prince 1990 Us S/GA utile 50 8 jlAchat du kverso . au petit de.1il 40 Aohat du keosoem so -~ ~ ~~~~~~r so - ~ ~ ~ ~ on ~ @~ to 1 0 PoWo Road P. amR. am Charbon de bois M Kerosene = Gas Fi.jj A6.3: CoOt Econeomique Thdorlque Selon tes Foyers et Coaistlbles Port-au-Prfnce1 1990 Us S/GD utile 35dukVO sott-eu AvW4 du kerosene 25 20 15 PotJO Road P. am B. Om Charbon do bois 5i Kerosene G Gas - lll - vAnex VI Page 1 of S IOUSEHOLD SURVEY FACTOR ANALYSIS . MAIN AXES The fator ualyss allows to identify the main factors that explain the behavior of surveyed households These fctors can be materdalied through the main axes along the area of points that orrespond to these households on the graph. These factors could be explained by deeasing order of irnm nce: - Axis 1: Main factor of household behavious; this factor is linked to household income, mainly through household expenditure capability. - Axis 2: This factor is related to investment capacity and assets of households. -Axis 3: This factor opposes tradition (large failies, tradional housing) to modernisation. - Axls 4: This factor is related to household size mainly. Axis 5: Tuh factor opposes the household retirement on the family nucleus and the openig towards eaternal urban life. Axis6, 7 and & These factors have little d It is only worth mentioning that they are related to the use of specific fuels: Charcoal (axis 6); gVs (aids 7); Kerosene (axis 8). - 112- AV II Page 2 de 5 2 0.--. - 0.2 0.4 -0.3 0.2 ----- . _ - _ - - -- - _ -0.6 -0.2 - t_n -0.3 8- ----- -0.9 - - -1 a°:s ------- - -1 -0.9 0.8- 0.7-.8- 0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.8 -- - 0.7 __S 0.6 - …e4 0.4 --- -----~- t----L 0.2 0.1 -.…… 0 -2 _- -0.1-- --…---- - 0 .22- ------ ---- - -----. - 0 3 -- -- - -- - -0.4 -0.5 …_ -0.8… -0.7 -0.8 _ -0.9 0 0 0. 0..8 -1 0.90.B0.70.50.5O.4.3.0.20.10 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 I * 113 ADDIILVI Pag 3 de 5 4 1 I_ = = = = =-L b _ - - = -= 0.9 I ml e _ ------- 0.6_-- . 0.5 __ . _ 0.4 - _-_ - -- - -- - - - _- -_ ----- on .- - - - - -9 - - - = - - -= - G te -0. 4 - --- - _ _-- - Re -- _ ___ -0.6 --- _ - - - - _ . - . _ -0.7 _- - - . _ _ ----_- - - u se -0.9 - . _ - _, .._- __ ._ - . -01 - -1 -0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4- 0.3-0.2-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 5 0.8 -- -_-__ Co_rs 3.7 1-_ __ _ _ -mei +[ 0. 6 --- - _ -_ 0.5-… - I /khA Pi e- e 0.24 -0.1 ……-e -0.2 - - - -.- - - - - -0.54……-- -0.56 - 0 '6 -- --- ------ ------ ---l- ----- --- - --- ----- ---- I -0.7 L- ---- --------- ------ -0.86-- -0.9- L-… -1 -0.9-0.8-0.7-0.B-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 v 114 . AnMuc..ll Page 4 de 5 B 0 .9 - ---- ------- - -- - 0.8 … 0.? 0.8… 0.5…- - _ _ _ _ - - - ----- 0.3 4-……………--- --- --- 0.2 --- 0.1-----~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- ---- ---- O 0 -- - --- -- - -I -0.4 - _… -0.4- -0 .5---- . _ - _$__! -. _ '…-1 -0.8… -0.9 … -I…~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~J: - - -1 -O.9-0.9-O.7-0.B-0.5-0.4-O.3-0.2-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0._ 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 I .7 0.9 -- ……--- 0.?… 0.5… 0.4…--- ----- --- 0.3…--N 0.2---- - 0.1-…e -0. 2 i-- --- -0.23- -- - 0 . 5- I ----- - -------… -0.6 - AW -- -0.7 - - ---- -- -0.9- -10.-0.80. 0.60.S0.40.30.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 a.g == = = = == = _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ * 115 ' -nexe VII Page 5 de S 8 1- 0.9 == == == = = _ 0.8 _ 0.4 0.3 4 --- 0.3 0.1 =nae 0 - O. _ - _ _ - - _ __ _e - - - _ -0. -0.2………-- --- --------- ----- --------- -0.3 - -0.4 - -0.5…___ _____ ______ -0.68 _____ -0.7 _ -0.8 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ -0.9 _ ______ -1 -0.9-O.S-O.7-O.B-0.5-O.4-0.3-0.8-O.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.S 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 - 116 - Annex VIII Page 1 of 7 MARKET STUDY 1. Several consumer target groups were identified using household surveys, interviews with groups and product demonstrations. Each group has a separate socio-economic profile and reflects distinct attitudes. Five segments or target groups were distinguished in this manner, as described below. 2. An analysis of the different groups' attitudes towards fuels and stoves, and comparisons of these attitudes with their behavioral characteristics made it possible to evaluate the market potential of different portable cookstoves within the respective market segments. 3. This analysis first was conducted assuming the current relative price structure for fuels, then in a second case assuming a substantial drop in the price of gas. Group A: Hougeholds Without Budgtgary Constraints or Strict Dietary Preferences 4. This group consists primarily of rich households and the most well- off households of the middle class. They also are counted among the most educated households and those most responsive to information and commercial advertising. Of the total households in the capital, their relative weight can be estimated at about 10%. They have a higher than average ownership rate for cooking equipment, even though the utilization rate for these appliances is often limited. Organization of their households is quite flexible and is arranged aro md the constraints of the primary female in the house, who frequently is an active woman with employment outside the household. GROUP A Group Current Potential fteferencg Market market. Traditional Cookstove 0% 18% 0% Improve Cookstove 0% 0% 0% Potaje Cookstove 40% 20% 24% Kerosene Cookstove 4% 0% 5% Propane Stove 50% 40% 50% Butane Cookstove 5% 19% 20% Electric Cookstove 1% 0% 1% 5. There are two main incentives influencing this group's purchases: (i) the appliance is an indispensable element of their social status; and (ii) it must contribute to simplification of household organization, in particular the, primary female's duties. Neither the cost nor even the appliance's usefulness are determining factors for this group, although in the continuing economic crisis, these factors are more present in the minds of consumers. This is a group resolutely oriented towards gas (kerosene has only an ambiguous image within this group): 40% of these households are equipped to use propane. In addition, under the influence of the recent publicity campaigns, many have been quick to purchase the equipment needed to use butane gas (Bip) - 117 - ADIz Vill Page 2 of 7 6. Because of the income level of this group, a drop in gas priess should have only a limited impact. Above all, it should induce a switch from butane to propane; among propane users, a price drop would provide incentives for keeping larger household stocks (50 and 100 kg). Group B: Households with More than Six People, with Yariable, but Steady. Income 7. In this group, the determining factor for purchases is household size as well as the family's dietary practices (number of place settings, eating out or meals at home). Their steady income gives them a certain level of confidence with regard to investments, but in general their behavior lacks originality and they are not innovators. Their living standards are average, and they represent 30% of the population. GROUP B Group Current Potential Eref we Market Market Traditional Cookstove 20% 58% 20% Improved Cookstove 20* 3% 15% Potaje Cookstove 25% 26% 25% Kerosene Cookstove 15* 0% 15% Propane Stove 10% 9% 10% Butane Cookstove 15% 3% 15% Electric Cookstove 0% 1% 0% 8. With regard to stoves and fuels, the decision criteria for this group are linked more to constraints surrounding cooking arrangements than to the cost of cooking. The notion of cost savings is important (although fuel expenditures fall far below those for food) but no alternative appears more economic to them than another: this currently is the group least likely to change fuels. Gas is considered only a secondary fuel and these households were a little more influenced by the presentations of the improved charcoal stove and the kerosene stove. 9. Nonetheless, a substantial drop in gas prices could strike a sensitive chord within this group and provide the incentive for an important consumer movement towards propane and butane. Given the characteristics of these consumers (they have to be solicited, they themselves don't seek opportunities) a massive movement to gas would only be possible under scenarios including specifically adapted programs of credit for appliance purchases and widespread distribution of gas. Grop C: Average-Sized. Educated Households 10. These generally are average-sized households with limited income (between $200 and $400 per month), rather young and employed in lower-level salaried or wage-earning jobs. Their behavior is influenced substantially by their budgetary constraints (high costs of necessities) as well as by their desire to acquire appliances (motivated by ostentation or by desire for better living standards). They generally have well established decision criteria and are ready to make sacrifices to afford the equipment of their choice. These households represent about 20% of the population. _ 1?e _-Armex V Page 3 of 7 GROUP C Group Current Potential Petference Ha4=t Market Traditional Cookstove 10% 60% 10% Improved Cookstove 20% 0% 20% Potaje Cookstove 20% 23% 20% Kerosene Cookstove 10% 5% 10% Propane Stove 5S 10% SF Butane Cookstove 30% 2% 30% Electric Cookstove 5% 0% 5% 11. By nature innovative. in character, the members of this group are more likely to be interested by Improved stoves and substitution, and in particular by products which are new to them, whether lt be kerosene or butane. This interest is tempered by the fact that cooking is not the principal motivating factor behind their desire for change. Both for reasons of image and practicality, Bip is the stove best adapted to the aspirations of this group. Nevertheless, its future behavior is very likely to be abaped by publicity and information campaigns. 12. Because of their tight budgetary constraints, the consumers in this group are very sensitive to variations in price. A drop in the price of gas would provide the incentive for a large fractlon of the consumers in this group to switch to that fuel, to the detriment of kerosene and of improved stoves. Group Do Low-Income or Irregular Incoms Households 13. For the most part, these are average-sized households living at the subsistence level: they represent 35% of the population in the capital. Their income is very limited (between $70 and $150 per month) and their budgetary constraints are substantial, even though they sometimes receive assistance from emigrant relatives. More so than with other groups, they are affected by the choice of fuel: as it is an essential element of their day-to-day survival, proportionally fuel expenditures can play as large a role in their daily budget as food expenditures. They are not influenced very much by publicity and thus were not affected by recent promotion campaigns for gas. Their decision criteria are very different from those of the rest of the population, and their purchasing declsions often are a function of random additions to the family budget. GROUP D Group Current Potential Preftrence utrk. Market Traditional Cookstove 558 75% 55% Improved Cookstove 25% 4% 25% Potaje Cookstove OS 15% 4% Kerosene Cookstove 5% 2% S Propane Stove O0 0% 0% Butan Cookatove 10% 0% lot Electric Cookstove 5S 4% 5% - 119 - AnnexVII Page 4 of 7 14. Based on their own perception of their economic situation, the households in this group reject gas as being economically out of reach. They also have difficulty perceiving that kerosene use could be advantageous when faced with the multiple possibilities offered by charcoal. Thus a large majorLty -- based on their present economic constraints and fuel use patterns -- can only see charcoal as a future fuel alternative. As a result, they mostly are interested in improved cookstove models. Thus It is among this group that improved stoves have their best market opening, although enthusiasm for the model has been dampened somewhat by the published price for the BME model. 15. if gas prices were to fall substantially, a campaign to educate consumers about comparing the costs of fuels could draw a limited share of these low-income consumers (10 to 20%) to gas use. This assumes also that it will be possible to introduce gas into the retail networks for neighborhoods where these households are located. Grou : Modern. Progessive Households 16. This is a rather narrowly defined group of households (5% of the population in the capital), very open to new ideas. Rather politicized and in general progressive, these households are sensitive to arguments such as the struggle against deforestation; they are influenced by western consumption modes and with steady, large Incomes, they are able to make purchases in accordance with their views. However, they also are quite conscious of the family budget and are not insensitive to practical arguments. GROUP K Group Current Potential Preference Mbrket Market Traditional Cookstove 0% 50% 0% Imroved Cookstove 40% 0% 40% Potaje Cookstove 0% 38% o% Kerosene Cookstove 20% 0% 20% Propane Stove 10% 2% 10l Butane Cookstove 30% 10% 30% Electric Cookstove 0% 0% 0% 17. The households of this group have very precise expectations vis-a- vis different fuels and stoves. In the present situation, the stove which corresponds best to their expectations is the Blip butane cooker, but those who will continue to cook with charcoal will purchase improved stoves. In general, they are more interested by kerosene cookers than other groups, especially the new models presented at demonstrations, primarily because of their modern appearance and advertized high efficiency. 18. Vigilant v rket conditions, rhey cannot help but be influenced by decreases In gas pri . A large number are likely to "jump ship" in favor of this fuel, if only they are offered advantageous terms for purchssing equipment (credit, especially) and bottles (cross-subsidize the initial purchase with the fuel price). . 120 - XleynV Page 5 de 7 RESULTATS DE L'ETUDE DE MARCHE SUR PORT-AU-PRINCE A. SITUATION ACTUELLE: Cible A B C D E Total Partdicpation 10% 30% 20% 36% 5% 100% Part de marche Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Tot Rechauds a charbon Rechaud tradltlonnel 18% 2% 58% 17% 60% 12% 75% 26% 50% 3% 60% Rechaud ameliore 0% 0% 3% 1 % 0% 0% 4% 1 % 0% 0% 2% Rechaud potaJe 20% 2% 26% 8% 23% 5% 15% 5% 38% 2% 22% S/Total 38% 4% 87% 26% 83% 17% 94% 33% 88% 4% 84% Rechaud a kerosene 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% Rechauds a gaz Culsiniere a propane 40% 4% 9% 3% 10% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 9% Rechaud butane 19% 2% 3% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 10% 1% 4% S/Total 59% 6% 12% 4% 12% 2% 0% 0% 12% 1% 13% Rechaud electrtque 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 4% 1% 0% 0% 2% TOTAL 100% 10% 100% 30% 100% 20% 100% 35% 100% 5%100% S. MARCHE POTENTIEL, STRUCTURES DE PRIX INCHANGEES: Cible A B C D E Total Participation 10% 30% 20% 35% 5% 100% Part de marche Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Tot Rechauds a charbon Rechaud tradiftonnel 0% 0% 20% 6% 10% 2% 55% 19% 0% 0% 27% Rechaud amellore 0% 0% 15% 5% 20% 4% 25% 9% 40% 2% 19% Rechaud potaje 24% 2% 25% 8% 20% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% S/Total 24% 2% 60% 18% F0% 10% 80% 28% 40% 2% 60% Rechaud akerosene 5% 1% 15% 5% 10% 2% 5% 2% 20% 1% 10% Rechauds a gaz Culsinlere a propane 50% 5% 10% 3% 5% 1% 0% 0% 10% 1% 10% Rechaud butane 20% 2% 15% 5% 30% 6% 10% 3% 30% 2% 18% S/Total 70% 7% 25% 8% 35% 7% 10% 3% 40% 2% 27% Rechaud electrlque 1% 0% 0% 0% 5% 1% 5% 2% 0% 0% 3% TOTAL 100% 10% 100% 30% 100% 20% 100% 35% 100% 5% 100% Groupes-ciblos: A : Monages sans contratntes budgetafres ni rigidites allmentalres B: Menages de plus de 6 personnes, a revenu variable mals reguller C: Menages de taile moyenne, avoc Influence du nleau dInstructlon (sctour secondalre, professions llberales) D: Menages a faible revenu ou a revenu Irroguller E: Menages modemes, progressistes 121 * Annm.YEll Page6 de 7 C. MARCHE POTENTIEL, BAISSE SENSIBLE DU PRIX DU GAZ Groupo-clble A B C D E Total Participaioon 10% 30% 20% 36% 5% 100% Part de marche Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Val Tot Rechauds a charbon Rechaud tradlonnel 0% 0% 10% 3% 5% 1% 45% 16% 0% 0% 20% Rechaud ameliore 0% 0% 15% 5% 20% 4% 25% 9% 20% 1% 18% Rechaud potaJe 25% 3% 15% 5% 12% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% S/Total 25% 3% 40% 12% 37% 7% 70% 25% 20% 1% 47%9 Rechaud a kerosene 0% 0% 10% 3% 5% 1% 5% 2% 10% 1% 6% Rechauds a gaz Culsinlere a propane 60% 6% 20% 6% 15% 3% 0% 0% 20% 1% 16% Rechaud butane 14% 1% 30% 9% 40% 8% 20% 7% 50% 3% 28% S/Total 74% 7% 50% 15% 55% 11% 20% 7% 70% 4% 44% Rechaud etlctrque 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 5% 2% . 0% 0% 2% TOTAL 100% 10% 100% 30% 100% 20% 100% 35% 100% 5% 100% D. ANALYSE DE SENSIBIUTE Groilpe-ible A B C D E Total Participation 10% 30% 20% 35% 5% 100% Part de marche Val Sens Val Sens Vail Sens Val Sens VaW Sens Tot Sens Rechaud traditonnel 0% 0% 10% 0% 5% 2% 45% 3% 0% 0% 20% 1.5% Rechaud amellore 0% 0% 15% 3% 20% 0% 25% 0% 20% 0% 18% 0.8% Rechaud potaje 25% 4% 15% 0% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0.6% Rechaud a kerosene 0% 0% 10% 3% 5% 1% 5% 0% 10% 0% 6% 1.0% Cuisiniere a propane 60% 3% 20% 4% 15% 5% 0% 0% 20% 2% 16% 2.6% Rechaud butane 14% 5% 30% 6% 40% 2% 20% 2% 50% 4% 28% 3.6% Rechaud electrque 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0.0% CRITERES DE SENS8BILITE Groupe A : Concurrence vente au detail, prix d'achat des bombonnes Groupe 8: Credit a I'equlpement, couverture du reseau de Oistribution Groupe C: Prtx de I'equlpement, Inflation continue ou stagnante Groupe D: Siategle de communication, couverture du reseau de distribution Groupe E: Credit a I'equlpement, pdx d'achat des bombonnes - 122 - &nex VII Page 7 de 7 Fiaure AJ.1: Narch6 des CambustfbLes et doe Foyers 120% Prix au gaZ sensiblenent b8iSsE 100% 850% 40% 20%, * 199 Prix inchangEs Moyenne Min imum Maximum REfErenCe MarChe CIO Port-au-Prince Sanfto Domingo Criaroon traditionnlel MChrbron amnellore Kerosene E Gcaz C-I Electricite - 123 &nne=oX Page 1 de 3 SCENARIO TENDANCIEL. SCENARIO VOLONTARIST PROIO De CO#IMWAIIOTN DE WOMUTILMI -1F ~ "* 1698 1 liSt: P**o_om (10) 81 1 I 10I0 11 1t7I t323 13n 14 144 IM Y.. puIop 21 2t00 21Me 25 U" 644 M3 274 24 W 6 316 o Tot 116s 120I11a2n I 1071130 1416 1473 1634 16666611729 t800 1874 SCOIAWO ThNOANCIA EL (etwetnr. de o.oemmabfo hwbaa ) Pod doe o..eemmats do obhuboa de bole o em..AM ombu0 tlbl pdu,olp Poit.eaPdno 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 64% 64% 64% 84% 84% 64% 64% 64% VMS. pdneIp. 90% 90% 90% 00% 60% O0% 9% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% Copa.mmlbm oaq molew. do beubee (kgialeaplo Totdl 216 2t1 216 216 21 216 215 21S 215 215 215 21S 21 Ceemmte" do.etqud s aoubon de bole (10001) Podt-4mP 173 160 137 195 205 212 220 229 239 249 259 270 25t VUbo piWlp. 3 41 42 44 46 47 4 1 3 6 57 6 2 Totl 212 221 230 2 2t 258 269 20 292 304 316 329 842 Paut dee oee.amatsom de gm oome ombuedlbb pdrolpald P*gt.J4Pfrn t 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% VW" pdndp. 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 49 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Cnsommal unMa moreb doe saokglIopt Total 48 48 45 48 48 4* 46 46 46 46 48 48 46 OousoemaUs domeal" do gad (100) Poet.4P&b a 0 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 9 9 10 VN pdEnoip. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 TotaW 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 a 8 9 10 _10 10t CIENARI0 VOLONTANATI 'sgy:^ee' s a TV ad radio qots 2O 400 600 0 T*shfrs and de"at Cs000) 60 I0 150 a MfsaLttan.os 50 1I0 15 0 Overhsd (CM) 82 3 149 0 231 4 Sub-totat 67 26 114 3 1771 30 0. ONtrOMtNG AMC EVALuATON (NO CONTRACT) Monitoring caordifnaor (20m/) 16 24 24 6 0 PAP OUatIty Co trotter (10004/a) 8 12 12 32 0 Secondary Ouatfty CMroLttLer a 1 12 32 0 Transpor & per dem 4 6 6 16 0 Statistif an (15004/) la 1a la 48 0 tnfclal eonsor urvy 23 * 23 0 QuaLity eontro t labets (61C) 10 40 s0 130 0 Of?f ¢e e ipMent 10 0 18 otscetltanous 13 20 20 53 0 Overhea (15X) 14 2 20 .8 ...2 60 2 Subtotat 1C 12 132 0 196 438 12 2. INSTITUTINAL ITRIMMUM (M can ) Tran(ngsr.tdy teer 10 0 10 4x* vehicLe l2 0 20 VafetLoperatioul custs 3 2 3 2 3 2 8 5 Irw lconaist (1300/rn) 18 * * 1 54 0 Ad.inistra:tve Asst. t100U0/) 12 . 1 12 36 0 Derf (nCl!0/4) 9 . 9 9 27 0 hSubtotL U42 32 .42 a 62 2 125 3S P. 1510SF SJPEAVISIOM~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. Tstb irigr (20 weeks) 14 * 14 18 4 travet and per dice C trps) 4 2 4 10 Secretariat suo rt 2 3 7 ewpte tranLtofan g sU totat 20 is 30 68 TaTAL 911 136 1376 2 239 32 252* 196 PttsCgAL CONrtiemactEs (10) 91 14 138. 3 24 3 2a3 20 ac COISTINICIES (20Z) 182 23 27s 48 6 50o 39 GAmO TOTAaL 1165 179 I68 3 311 41 3264 233 -157 -we T Anno XIV Page 2 of 5 HAITI FORESTRY AND ENYTRONNENTAL PROTIOCtN PROJECT HOUSEHOLO EERGY COSERVATION USPtOJECT FIGURE 1 tMPLEMENTATtON SCHDtULt ProJect yoar 1991/2 1992/3 1993/4 Calendar year 91 >< 199 1993 Itet/Action Ca) New Product DevoloPment Rehabilitation of BHe Laboratory X> Efficiency testfng of recho ; '&Jo X0a Evatuation of ortisanal produ...on system X-U Prototype development X > Consumer acepUtability testing X3 Re-design (if neeassary) XKu (b) Artisanal Trafnfng *Go tdentification, selection, ontractIng Xs" Design of training moterials X-> Recruitment of trainers £ trafines X-> training: Port-au-Prince stovemakers Xae XKu Xe' Xu> Port-au-Prince fronworkers Xe' X" X-> Secondary eity stovemakers Xe, Xe' Secondary city iron#orkers Xe? Evaluation/re-dbeign of curriculum Xs* Additional training as neesasury X--e Contract evaluation/re-negotiation XK * Cc) Publicity and Education Campaigns PR firm Identiftcation, selection, contracting X-u- Design of ceeei Xgn implementation of campaign. Xa"Muue, Contract evaluationre-negotiatlon X -> Continued/re-designed capaign xu e (d) Monitoring and Evaluation NWO identifieation, election, contracting XMkN Initial consmer survey Xs" utality control pogram X------ X arterly reporting VW X' Xu'Xu'X aXs Xe'X"X"X" Mid-term evaluation report X_* final valuation reort Xe., Contract evaluationXre-neotiation XKelK Xs" (e) Mgemnt inforation Recruitmnt of Cookstove Epert XK' Cooketom Expert conwltancy X NGO training contract (18 months) X0 -p X - PR flm pubticity contract (22 mnths) Xfe e X -- WGO monitorini contrect (32 months) X aa X -_ f Enargy tconomist (36 months) X -eUeeee.ee' XKaeee.eeUIVe X_eeeeesaweI. Other IN staff (36 months x 2) X _-> e nessee SN! training/study tour XK Vehicle procurement Xaet us: tech n"* represents all or. part of on calendar month - 158 _ An~nex XIV Page 3 of 5 Tableau I: SUOGET OETAILLE Oi L COMPOSANTE D'OUVERTURB DU MARCHI DU GAZ ¢omposnb/Ceout (it000) = Etude opUons developpement 8 Appul *u BAPP 70 70 88 78 as 4S 180 10 A.sdtanoo tooh. Intem. (Smols) 30 60 30 120 DOplao.ments/allelon 100 10 10 5 10 8 30 20 Penation 2 10 10 8 10 S 48 20 SeonomIte petrewo (3OOIn) 38 3S 3S 108 Equlpomente 20 5 J 30 Invo.lle.m*nts 125 12S 128 125 3100 5080 3380 $330 Ingenbodo 128 126 128 128 250 250 Gente oMI 2B00 600 2500 600 Mlt a qual 78 280 75 280 stookage S00 1400 o00 1600 Emboutell19e . 2a t00 as 100 Puo boutelis 2500 , 2800 Total 1f8 281 180 200 3158 8125 3830 5806 Imprvue (20%) 39 S5 36 40 831 1028 708 1121 Grand Total .23; 18? 2t 240 3 4239,t 872? ( -159- A2e2 XV Page 4 of 5 Tableau 3: BUDGET DE LA COMPOSANTE DE MODERNISATION DU SECTEUR CHARBONNIER (1000 Us 8) _ _ tt*i4 Ta CELLULE COMIUSTISLES LIGNEUX Personnel Responsable 24 0 24 8 8 8 24 Fornatler 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Agroeconomist. 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Soclologue 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Cartographe 18 0 18 a a 6 18 Personnpi adminlata 60 0 S0 20 20 20 S0 Equlpement 3 vehl¢ules 0 50 50 s0 o 0 s0 OfrdeurulMatreld bureau 0 30 30 30 0 0 30 Fon¢tionnement 50 40 90 30 30 30 90 Deptacements 30 0 30 10 10 10 30 SCHEMA DIRECTEURAME1.1ORATION DU CONTROLE Constructlon/modillcatlon points controle 150 s0 200 0 0 200 200 ATCT extedeure 0' 78 75 S0 25 0 75 ATCThatienne 100 0 100 50 30 20 100 DEFINMON PROGRAMME COMPENSATION 2Soclologues 24 0 24 0 12 12 . 24 2 Agronomes 24 0 24 0 12 12 24 ATCT extedeure 0 50 S0 0 25 25 s0 ATCThaWdenne 100 0 100 0 50 S0 100 APPUI TECHNIQUE AUX CHARBONNIERS Forester 18 0 18 6 6 . 6 18 Chetformaton 12 0 12 4 4 4 12 I 0 Animateurs 4S 0 45 15 15 15 45 ATCT formation 80 0 80 40 20 20 80 ATCTgestlon 80 60 140 60 40 40 140 Fondsderoulement 10 0 10 5 5 0 10 Total 879 355 1234 402 336 496 1234 Imprevus 88 36 123 40 34 50 123 Grand total _ _ _ _ _ - 160 _ Page 5 Of 5 Tableau 4: BUDGET DE LA COMPOSANTE DE PILOTAGE DE LA STRATEGIE (I MO us$) Personnel * T Rmponsable 24 0 24 8 8 8 24 Forestier 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Economiste 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Pors. admlnlstatif 48 0 48 16 16 16 48 AT long torme 60 300 360 120 120 120 360 AT court terme locale 60 0 6O 20 20 20 60 Formation/Promotion 10 35 45 15 15 15 45 Equlpement 2 vehicules 0 34 34 34 0 0 34 Ordi/bureau 0 16 16 16 0 0 16 Fonctionnoment 25 50 75 25 25 25 75 Total 263 435 698 268 216 216 698 Imprevus (10%) 26 44 70 27 22 22 70 Grand total 9' 49 1 .2..23 28>76 1' ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMNE COMPLEE ACTIVlTIES County Activiy Date Number SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (AFR) Africa Regional Anglophone Afrca Household Energy Workshop 07/88 085/88 Regional Power Seminar on Reducing Electrc Power System Losses in Africa 08/88 087/88 Institutional Evaluation of EGL 02/89 098/89 Biomass Mapping Regional Workshops 05/89 - Francophone Household Energy Workshop 08/89 103/89 Interafrican Electrical Engineering College: Proposals for Short- and Long-Term Development 03/90 112/90 Biomass Assessment and Mapping 03/90 - Angola Energy Assessment 05/89 4708-ANG Power Rehabilitation and Technical Assistance 10/91 142/91 Benin Energy Assessment 06/85 5222-BEN Botswana Energy Assessment 09/84 4998-BT Pump Electrification Prefeasibility Study 01/86 047/86 Review of Electricity Service Connection Policy 07/87 071/87 Tuli Block Farms Electrification Study 07/87 072/87 Household Energy Isses Study 02/88 - Urban Household Energy Strategy Study 05/91 132/91 Burkina Paso Energy Assessment 01/86 $730-BUR Technical Assistance Program 03/86 052/86 Urban Housebold Energy Strategy Study 06/91 134/91 Burundi Energy Assessment 06/82 3778-BU Petroleum Supply Management 01/84 012/84 Status Report 02/84 011/84 Presentation of Energy Projects for the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1983-1987) 05/85 036/85 Improved Charcoal Cookstove Strategy 09/85 042/85 Peat Utilization Project 11/85 046/85 Energy Assessment 01/92 9215-BU Cape Verde Energy Assessment 08/84 5073-CV Household Energy Strategy Study 02/90 110/90 Comoros Energy Assessment 01/88 7104-COM Congo Energy Assssment 01/88 6420-COB Power Development Plan 03/90 106/90 C6te d'Ivoire Energy Assemet 04/85 5250-IVC Improved Bionss Utilizaton 04/87 069/87 Power System Efficiency Study 12/87 - Power Sector Efficiency Study (French) 02/92 141/91 Ethiopia Energy Assssment 07/84 4741-ET Power System Efficiency Study 10/85 045/85 Agriultural Residue Briquetting Pilot Project 12/86 062/86 Bagasse Study 12/86 063/86 Cooking Efficiency Project 12/87 - - 2 - Counhy Acdi* Date Numtber Gabor, Energy Assessment 07/88 6915-GA The Gambia Energy Assessment 11/83 4743-GM Solar Water Heating Retrofit Project 02/85 030/85 Solar Photovoltaic Applications 03/85 032/85 Petroleum Supply Management Assistance 04/85 035/85 Ghana Energy Asement 11/86 6234-GH Energy Ratioalization in the Industrial Sector 06/88 084/88 Sawmill Residues Utilization Study 11/88 074/87 Guinea Energy Assesment 11/86 6137-GUI Guinea-Bissau Energy A _t 08/84 5083-GUB Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 04/85 033/85 Management Options for the Electric Power and Water Supply Subsectors 02190 100/90 Power and Water Institutional Retructuring (French) 04/91 118/91 Kenya Energy Assessment 05/82 3800-KE Power System Efficiency Study 03/84 014/84 Status Report 05/84 016/84 Coal Conversion Action Plan 02/87 - Solar Water Heating Study 02/87 066/87 Peni-Urban Wood fuel Development 10/87 076/87 Power Master Plan 11/87 - Lesotho Energy Assessment 01/84 4676-LSO Liberia Energy Assessm t 12/84 5279-LBR Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 06/85 038/85 Power System Efficiency Study 12187 081/87 Madagascar Enoergy A _ssent 01/87 5700-MAG Power System Efficiency Study 12/87 075/87 Malawi Energy Assessment 08/82 3903-MAL Technical Assistance to Improve the Efficiency of Fuelwood Use in the Tobacco Industry 11/83 009/83 Status Report 01/84 013/84 Mali Energy Asssment (French) 11/91 8423-MU Islamic Rqpublic of Mauritania Energ Assessment 04/85 5224-MAU Household Energy Strategy Study 07/90 123/90 Mauritius Energy Assessment 12/81 3510-MAS Sttus Report 10/83 008/83 Power System Efficiency Audit 05/87 070/87 Bagasse Power Potential 10/87 077/87 Mozambique Energy Assessment 01/87 6128-MOZ Household Electricity Utilization Study 03/90 113/90 Niger Energy Asssment 05/84 4642-NIR Stts Report 02/86 051/86 Improved Stoves Project 1287 080/87 Household Energy Consevation and Substitution 01/88 082/88 Nigeria EaV A _t 08/83 4440-UNI Rwanda EDergy Amssmessnt 06/82 3779-RW Energy Ament (Engish and French) 07/91 8017-RW Status Report 05/84 017/84 moed Charcod Cookatove Strateg 08/86 059/86 Impoved Charcoal Production Techniques 02/87 065/87 Co=y Acgt*y Date Number Rwanda C a of Improved Charcoal Stoves and CSabozaio Tenqus Mid-Term Progress Report 12/91 141/91 SADCC SADCC Regional Se8Ct Regonal Capacity-Building Program for Enery Surveys and Policy Analysis 11/91 - Sao Tome anld Ptincipe lloergy Assessme1t l0/85 5803-STP Seaegal Energy Assest 07/83 4182-SE Status Report 10/84 025/84 Industl EEnrgy Conservaion Study 05/85 037/85 PEparatory Assistance for Dor Meeting 04/86 056/86 Urban Housebold EnyV Sftotegy 02/89 096/89 Seychella Elqgy Assmentz 01/84 4693-SEY Electic Power System Efficiency Study 08/84 021/84 Sienam Lnem Ehnery AasmentYd 10/87 6597-SL SoMal EnW AanSme 12/8S 5796-S0 Sudan M e Asistance to the. Ministry of Energy and Mining 05/83 003/83 Energy Am#sement 07/83 4511-SU Power System Efficiency Study 06/84 018/84 Status Report 11/84 026/84 Wood EneryForesry Feasiity 07/87 073/87 5Sw16slmd BEku Asgr Sevosat 02/87 6262-SW Tanznia Ehg Assnt 11/84 4969-TA Peri-Urban Woodfuels Feasibility Study 08/88 086/88 Tobacco Curing Efficiency Study 05/89 102/89 Remote Sensing and Mapping of Woodlands 06/90 - Industal Energy Efficiency Tecbnical Asistance 08/90 122/90 Togo Eneqy Aesment 06/85 5221-TO Wood Recovery in the Nangbeto Like 04/86 055/86 Power Efficieny Impwovement 12/87 078/87 Uganda Energy Amo7t 07/83 4453-UG Stu Repxnt 08/84 020/84 Instuiol Review of the Energy Sector 01/85 029/85 Energy Effiiency in Tobacco Curing Industry 02/86 049/86 Fulwood/forestry Feasiblity Study 03/86 053/86 Power System Efficiency Study V288 092188 Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Brick and Tile Industry 0289 097/89 Tobacco Curing Pilot Project 03/89 UNDP Termin Report Zade 0negy A5eoat 05/86 5837-ZR Zambia Ebery Aesnz 01/83 4110-ZA Status Report 08/8S 039/85 Energy Sector In utonal Revie 11/86 060/86 Power Subsctor Efficency Study 02/89 093/88 Energy Stategy Study 02189 094/88 Urban Houseo1d Energy Strategy Study 08/90 121/90 Zinibabwe Energy AmmmessnYt 06/82 3765-ZIM lkywerSys"% EflfidencyStudy 06/83 005/83 Status Rexot 08/84 019/84 Pomwer Soow Mm ma_ Assistnce Project 04/85 034/85 Perolem Mnagemat Asisance 12/89 109/89 - 4 - Counh Acedls* Date Number Zimbabwe Power Sector Management Institution Building 09/89 - Charcoal UtiLization Prefeasibility Study 06/90 119/90 Integrated Energy Strategy Evaluation 01/92 8768-ZIM EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (EAIP) Asia Regional Pacific Household and Rural Energy Seminar 11/90 - China County-Level Ruwal Energy Assessments 05/89 101/89 Fuelwood Forestry Preinvestment Study 12/89 105/89 Fiji Energy A_nt 06/83 4462-FIJ Indonesia Energy Assessment 11/81 3543-IND Status Report 09/84 022/84 Power Generation Efficiency Study 02/86 050/86 Energy Efficiency in the Brick, Tile and Lime Industries 04/87 067/87 Diesel Generating Plant Efficiency Study 12/88 095/88 Urban Household Energy Strategy Study 02/90 107/90 Biomass Gasifier Preinvestment Study Vols. I & II 12/90 124/90 Malaysia Sabah Power System Efficiency Study 03/87 068/87 Gas Utilization Study 09/91 9645-MA Myanmar Energy Assessment 06/85 5416-BA Papua New Guinea Energy Assement 06/82 3882-PNG Status Report 07/83 006/83 Energy Strategy Paper - nstitutional Review in the Energy Sector 10/84 023/84 Power Tariff Study 10/84 024/84 Solomon Islands Energy Assessment 06/83 4404-SOL South Pacific Petroleum Transport in the South Pacific 05/86 - Thailand Energy Assessment 09/85 5793-TH Rural Energy Issues and Options 09/85 044/85 Accelerated Dissemination of Improved Stoves and Charcoal Kilns 09/87 079/87 Northeast Region Village Forestry and Woodfuels Preinvestment Study 02/88 083/88 Impact of Lower Oil Prices 08/88 - Coal Development and Utilization Study 10/89 - Tonga Energy Assessment 06/85 5498-TON Vanuatu Energy Assessment 06/85 5577-VA Western Samoa Enery Assmnt 06/85 5497-WSO SOUTH ASIA (SAS) Bangladesh Energy Assessrment 10/82 3873-BD Priority Investment Program 05/83 002183 Status Report 04/84 015/84 Power System Efficiency Study 02/85 031/85 Small Scale Uses of Gas Prefeasibility Study 12/88 - -5 - Conn" Acvluty Date Nwmber India Opportuities for Commercialization of Nonconventional Energy Sydsems 11/88 091/88 Maharashtra Bagasse Energy Efficiency Project 05/91 120/91 Mini-Hydro Development on Irrigation Dams and Canal Drops Vols. I, I and m 07/91 139/91 Nepal EnergAswsmet 08/83 4474-NEP Status Report 01/85 028/84 Pakistan Household Energy Asment 05/88 - A _ssmmt of Photovoltaic Progrms, Applications, and Markets 10/89 103/89 Sri Ianka Energy Assessment 05/82 3792-CE Power System Loss Reduction Study 07/83 007/83 Status Report 01/84 010/84 ndustrial Energy Conservation Stady 03/86 054/86 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) Portugal Eergy Assessment 04/84 4824-PO Turkey Energy Assessment 03/83 3877-TU MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MNA) Morocco Energy Assessment 03/84 4157-MOR Status Report 01/86 048/86 Syria Energy Assesment 05/86 5822-SYR Electic Power Efficiency Study 09/88 089/88 Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Cement Sector 04/89 099/89 Eergy Efficiency Improvement in the Fertilizer Sector 06/90 115190 Tunisia Fuel Substitution 03/90 - Yemen Energy Assessment 12/84 4892-YAR Energy Investment Priorities 02/87 6376-YAR Household Energy Strategy Study Phase I 03/91 126/91 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ([AC) LAC Regional Regional Seminar on Electric Power System Loss Reduction in the Caribbean 07/89 - Bolivia Eet Assment 04/83 4213-DO National Energy Plan 12/87 - National Energy Plan (Spanish) 08/91 131/91 LI Paz Private Power Technical Assistance 11/90 111/90 Natural Gas Distribution: Economics and Reguon 01/92 125/92 Prefeasibility Evaluation Rural Electrification and Demand Asessment 04/91 129/91 Chile Energy Sector Review 08/88 7129-4H Colombia Energy Strategy Paper 12/86 - Costa Rica Energy Aessment 01/84 4655-CR Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 11/84 027/84 Forest Residues Utilization Study 02/90 108/90 -6- Cowutry Aclfr Date Nwmber Dominican Energy Aniss t 05/91 8234-DO Republic Ecuador EneVgy Auessnt 12/85 5865-EC Energy Shategy Phase I 07/88 - Energy Stuatgy 04/91 - Haiti Enefgy Akesmnent 06/82 3672-HA Staus Report 08/85 041/85 Honduras Energy Asment 08/87 6476-HO Petoleurm Supply Management 03/91 128/91 Jamaica Energy Az2ssmennt 04/85 5466-JM Petroleum Ptocurment, Refining, and Distribuion Study 11/86 061/86 Energy Efficiency Building Code Phae I 03/88 - Energy Efficiency Standards and Labels Phase I 03/88 - Management Information System Phase I 03/88 - Charcoal Production Project 09/88 090/88 PIDCO Sawmill Residues Utilization Study 09/88 088/88 Mexico Inmpoved Charcoal Production Within FPwest Management for the State of Veracruz 08/91 138/91 Panama Power System Efficiency Study 06/83 004/83 Paraguay Eor A _t 10/84 5145-PA Recommended Technical Assistan Projects 09/85 - Status Report 09/85 043/85 Peru Energy Assessnt 01/84 4677-PE Statu Report 08/85 040/85 Proposal for a Stove Dissemination Ptogram in the Siera 02/87 064/87 Enargy Stratey 12/90 - Saint Lucia Energy Am¢nt 09/84 5111-SLU St. Vincent and the Grnadines Eney Anessmest 09/84 5103-ST Trinidad and Tobago EnergyAssesnt 12/8S 5930-TR GLOBAL Energy End Use Efficiency: Research and Strategy 11/89 - Guidelines for Utility Customer Mnagement aid Metering (English and Spanish) 07/91 - Women and Energy-A Resoure Guide The Intenational Network: Policies and Experience 04/90 - Amessmst of Personal Computer Models for Energy Planning in Nveloping Countries 10/91 - 032492 IBRD 23061 HAITI -20Alatc Oca 0 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY p - PI Atlantic Ocean 2 STRATEGY STUDY PROGRESSION OF CHARCOAL PRODUCTION AREAS - CHARCOAL PRODUCTION AREAS - MAIN HIGHWAYS 5 G SELECTED CaES Gonae INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES 4v the I .oclesol Iv 'A 3M,W 0Hinche fz 1980 19 1980 tV\Mirabos M m n~~~ Jom *I KILOMETER 0 32Se ! b ^ t ~~~~~{8^~~~7* w o ., .~ ,/Atlantic Ocean 20 -~A Hoitlenone l> _ , Ss giLosCvyes ~~.20,po&d (*1 '~ ~ Ci~ea Goole Js'' ~--' ~ s 1-2990 n2 1990b "nh -~~~ J66i jOT- mRIC > N~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0 lŽc Caribbean 17 Sea 720 JUNE 1991 IBRD 23062 . 5 s 7~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-3'0 734iD n,130 72'I0 - \ 1 s -20'0D .4 t ??~~~-ww A /s' 0 ;,; C C AN 0- _ -- !. Cv . ., a ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PONT DE PAIX _- ,$ " cUF\,>,,____ ; > ?. . t K4t2 ,- nt-m1< t - eHAM> _33COA PRODCTIO ARN IN L9 ? * ?tg 6ovt HOSEOLD EEWNERG Ntrg > ; CHRCALPARODUCrIOUNAREAS IN 199 -d,.! o4f w CHATRCOATIL PRODUCINDARIEAS 11 990) - i .- 2 , -- ROAS 0-,DCOENT ROLPOST>cS\ ; ;b ; <_ __ MARMME~~~~v CONTWL£ POSTS Sw b " ROAD~~ NETWORK-. ASPH~t ER^E-~\CAiLT o20 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~KtoMETC ARS ,' 4 CA 'SFA ' ISLAPVO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~JN 199 IBRD 22676 r <%~~ < AWlonWir 20- A t I a n t i c 0D c e a n 7O2- 20- a n cO . > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Pot de Poix \." P UEtRTO mole St. JAMA16&;> Ca,UBean F o '1 a5 Boe M e - r HAITI .. oonn,h FORESTRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PROJECT C/- nolisres ) PRINCIPAL FOREST RESOURCES Pino Forest c ~~UR Ope'n Pine Forest Gad o 3 Broad-loaf Forest . Remnants of Broad-leaf Forest and of Coffee G o n ao v p Coffee ond/or Dense Tree Crops St. Marc5§/t r i n tf \ tch D U[I Degraded Dry Forst and Shrubs I X ~~~Mangtoves-. !\\1 -_ |600G Avege Annual Rainfall in Millimeters z Rivers d6re~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~eldr Main Highways Co Secondary Roads A \ - - -- Tertary Roads r Z International Boundaries * rj I Wile otAFncBn _A U0 p 30 xo 50 i) > C a r i b ZD e 1 1 S e a **|||--* dt r r-,r,-,Xtlaactrl7Z ;tg h.thlttors~@lw > PRINCE - Anse DYHeineu La,s o I .P 2 0 3 7.. -c *.* - -nov des Pie, KILOMMJRS 0 1 0 20 30 4 ~ean. >MILB$ -- I. i.t...,i...t Mo... C.~~~~~~~oobs.. o.~~~ i.8~~..C.fr i b oc c .n a eMo NOVEmBER 1990