AFRICA REGION Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Africa Climate Business Plan Third Implementation Report & Forward Look November 2018 © Copyright 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, D.C. 20433 www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The views, findings and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. This work may be reproduced for the dissemination of knowledge, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street, WA DC., 20433 World Bank. 2018. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development: The Africa Climate Business Plan — Third Implementation Progress Report and Forward Look. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30932 Attribution: Please cite the work as follows: 2018: Accelerating Climate Resilient and Low Carbon Development: The Africa Climate Business Plan – Third Implementation Progress Report and Forward Look. World Bank, Washington DC. e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org AFRICA REGION Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Africa Climate Business Plan Third Implementation Report & Forward Look November 2018 A woman sells nuts and fruit at a market in Côte d’Ivoire. WB technical assistance supports climate smart agriculture and robust value chains. (Roman Yanushevsky/Shutterstock) Contents Acknowledgments��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xiii Abbreviations��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xiv Foreword ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xviii Executive Summary �����������������������������������������������������������������������������xxi 1. Introduction ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Progress on Mobilizing Resources for ACBP Investments ������� 3 Portfolio for Resource Mobilization ������������������������������������������������������������ 3 Resource Mobilization by ACBP Clusters and Components ���������������������� 4 Progress on Delivering Financing on Climate Co-Benefits ����� 10 Climate Co-Benefits for the Africa Region ����������������������������������������������� 10 Climate Co-Benefits by Cluster and Component of the ACBP������������������ 12 Geographic Coverage of ACBP Projects ������������������������������������������������ 15 Enhancing Climate Co-Benefits through Upstream Climate Screening ���� 16 Capturing Climate Co-Benefit Opportunities in Development Policy Operations ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17 Looking Ahead ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Strategic Upstream Country Engagement ������������������������������� 19 Context���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19 Key Findings�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20 Opportunities and Actions for Strengthened and Transformational Country Engagement������������������������������������� 23 For Systematic Country Diagnostics�������������������������������������������������������� 23 For Country Partnership Frameworks ������������������������������������������������������ 24 For Client NDC Engagement�������������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Assessment of the Contribution of ACBP Projects to NDC Implementation������������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Key Messages ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Context �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25 NDC-Referenced Projects in ACBP Portfolios������������������������������������������ 26 Good Practice Case Studies of NDC Support������������������������������������������ 30 Client Support for NDCs�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 Resilience Capacities after Three Years of Implementation �������35 Core Resilience Capacities and Pathways to Resilience �������������������������� 35 Results of Resilience Capacities Analysis ������������������������������������������������ 37 Resilience Pathways�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 41 Gender Considerations in the ACBP Portfolio ����������������������� 46 2. Promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture ����������������������� 50 Context��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 50 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | iii Lessons Learned ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 53 3. Creating Climate-Resilient Landscapes�������������������� 55 Context — Forested Landscapes ����������������������������������������������� 55 Lessons Learned — Forested Landscapes���������������������������������������������� 57 Context — Drylands Focus������������������������������������������������������������� 58 Future Opportunities ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 59 Reflections and Future Opportunities ��������������������������������������� 60 4. Promoting Integrated Watershed Management ������ 62 Context��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 62 Niger River Basin ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 63 Future Opportunities ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 65 Lake Victoria Basin ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 65 Future Opportunities ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 67 Zambezi River Basin ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 67 Future Opportunities�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 70 5. Fostering Climate-Smart Ocean Economies ������� 71 Context��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 71 Future Opportunities ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 74 6. Developing Climate-Smart Cities����������������������������������� 76 Context��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 76 Reflections and Opportunities for Future Progress ������������� 79 7. Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Coastal Zones in West Africa��������������������������������������������������������������� 80 Context��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 Future Opportunities ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 82 8. Promoting Climate-Resilient Transport ��������������������� 83 Context ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 83 Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced ��������������������������������� 85 9. Social Development and Resilience����������������������������� 87 Context — Boosting Social Protection��������������������������������������� 87 Future Opportunities ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 90 Context — Addressing the Drivers and Impacts of Migration ���90 Reflections and Future Opportunities ������������������������������������������������������ 92 10. Renewable Energy in Africa����������������������������������������������� 93 Increasing the Use of Solar Power���������������������������������������������� 94 Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced ������������������������������������������������ 95 iv | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Increasing Hydropower Use ��������������������������������������������������������� 95 Future Opportunities ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 97 Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced ������������������������������������������������ 97 Increasing Geothermal Power Use ��������������������������������������������� 97 Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced ������������������������������������������������ 98 11. Strengthening Africa’s Hydrometeorological Program������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 99 Context��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 99 12. Establishing an Africa Climate Resilient Investment Facility ��������������������������������������������������������������� 102 Context������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 102 13. Promoting Climate-Smart Healthcare ��������������������� 104 Context������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 104 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges ������������������������������ 107 Human Capital and Economic Costs of Climate Change���������� 108 Health Sector Contribution to Climate Change �������������������������������������� 109 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience������������������������������������������������������������������������� 110 14. Promoting Climate-Smart Education������������������������� 112 Context������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 112 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges ������������������������������ 112 15. Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness������������� 116 Context������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 116 16. Strategic and Systemic Engagement for NDCs����� 122 17. Harnessing Satellite Technology for Climate Resilience ����������������������������������������������������������������� 127 Value Added of Earth Observation Data and Services������� 127 Harnessing EO Technology for Africa��������������������������������������� 128 18. ACBP Raising the Level of Ambition������������������������� 133 Unified Climate and Development Agendas in Sub-Saharan Africa ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 133 Current Climate Context������������������������������������������������������������������������ 133 Predictions of Intensified Climate Impacts in the Next Few Decades������ 134 Connections between African Megatrends and Climate Action �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 137 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | v World Bank Group Post-2020 Climate Action and Targets ���� 139 Raising Our Ambition to the Closing Window or Opportunity for Climate Action ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 140 Strategic Support for NDCs ��������������������������������������������������������� 141 Scaled-Up and Transformational Investments ��������������������� 142 Strengthening the Enabling Context����������������������������������������� 143 Raising Financing and Driving Innovation in Financing����� 144 Forward Look—Bringing It Together����������������������������������������� 147 Appendix A ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 149 Methodology for Assessment of SCDs and CPFs for Integration of Climate Risks and Linkages with NDCs������� 149 Appendix B ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 150 Methodology for Resilience Analysis for the ACBP: Third Progress Report ����������������������������������������������������� 150 Background ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 150 Objective������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 150 Selection and Methodology�������������������������������������������������������������������� 151 Building the Database���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 152 Approach ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 153 Next Steps �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 153 Appendix C ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 155 Methodology for Resilience Analysis for Assessment of AFR SCDs and CPFs���������������������������������������� 155 Methodology������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 155 References ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 156 vi | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figures Figure ES.1: Annual Share of Co-Financing with Climate Co-Benefits for World Bank Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa, FY15-FY18 ��������������xxiv Figure 1.1: Clusters of Resilience in Africa Climate Business Plan ��������� 2 Figure 1.2: Number of Projects and Volume of World Bank Commitments ACBP and Other (Non-ACBP) in Africa������������������������������� 4 Figure 1.3: Annual Share of Financing with Climate Co-Benefits in World Bank Financing to Sub-Saharan Africa, FY15–FY18��������������������� 11 Figure 1.4: Sector Screening Total Usage Summary for ACBP Projects, FY18����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 Figure 1.5: Subsector Tool Usage for General Tool Screenings for ACBP Projects, FY18����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17 Figure 1.6: Share of Climate Co-Benefits in Africa Region DPOs ��������� 18 Figure 1.7: NDC-Referenced ACBP Portfolio Breakdown by NDC Reference Type, FY16–FY18 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 Figure 1.8: NDC-Referenced ACBP Portfolio Breakdown, FY16–FY18����� 27 Figure 1.9: NDC-Referenced ACBP Portfolio Breakdown by NDC Sectors, FY16–FY18 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 29 Figure 1.10: ACBP Projects’ Contribution to Building Absorptive, Adaptive, and Transformative Capacities ��������������������������������������������������� 38 Figure 1.11: Core Resilience Capacities of Individual ACBP Components���40 Figure 1.12: Kenya National Agriculture and Rural Inclusive Growth (P153349)—Resilience Pathways and Resilience Capacities ����������������� 41 Figure 1.13: Niger CSA Support Project (P153420)—Resilience Pathways to Resilience Capacities����������������������������������������������������������������� 42 Figure 1.14: WACA ResIP (P162337)—Resilience Pathways to Resilience Capacities ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 43 Figure 1.15: How the Projects Assessed Under ACBP Components Contribute to Building Resilience through Attributes��������������������������������� 44 Figure 18.1: Human-Induced Warming Rates to Projected 1.5°C Increase ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 135 Figure 18.2: Total GCF Funding Amount by Region, March 2018������� 146 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | vii Boxes Box ES.1 Lighting Up Low-Income Communities across Sub-Saharan Africa ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ xxv Box ES.2 WACA Management Program ���������������������������������������������������xxvii Box ES.3 Protection When Disaster Strikes in Kenya�����������������������������xxvii Box 1.1 Good Practice in Gender-Responsive Design in WACA����������� 47 Box 2.1: Success Story of Côte d’Ivoire Cashew Value Chain Competitiveness Project����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 52 Box 3.1 Madagascar Readiness for REDD+����������������������������������������������� 57 Box 3.2 Supporting Integrated Landscapes in Mozambique ����������������� 60 Box 4.1 Establishment of ZAMCOM and ZAMWIS ����������������������������������� 70 Box 5.1 Launch of Improved Smoking Ovens in Liberia��������������������������� 73 Box 6.1 Strengthening Resilience in Coastal Cities: Saint Louis Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project ��������������������������������������������� 78 Box 7.1 Measuring Progress toward Coastal Resilience ������������������������� 82 Box 8.1 Mozambique Integrated Feeder Road Development Project� �� 86 Box 9.1 Promoting Social Resilience through WACA������������������������������� 89 Box 9.2 Harnessing Mitigation Benefits through Social Protection������� 89 Box 9.3 Anticipatory Planning and Relocation in Response to Climate Risks������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 92 Box 10.1 Global Solar Atlas����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 95 Box 10.2 Cameroon Nachtigal Hydropower ����������������������������������������������� 96 Box 13.1 Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Health Systems in West Africa��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 111 Box 14.1 Africa Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund for Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology������������������������������������������������������� 115 Box 15.1 Green Elements in Banking and Capital Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 119 Box 15.2 Contingency Financing in the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 120 viii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 15.3 Cat-DDO Approved for Kenya ��������������������������������������������������� 120 Box 15.4 Impact of GIIF-Facilitated Training in Nigeria and Zambia ��� 121 Box 16.1 World Bank Support to Initiatives Supporting NDCs������������� 124 Box 17.1 Mobilization of Safety Nets through Use of Satellite Data Saves Lives�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 129 Box 17.2 Regional and collaborative action through West Africa Coastal Observatory ����������������������������������������������������������������� 131 Box 18.1 Key Messages from the IPCC Special Report, Global Warming of 1.5°C��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 136 Box 18.2 ACBP Forward Look and Urgency to Act ������������������������������� 141 Tables World Bank Projects Contributing to ACBP Implementation ��� xxiii Table ES.1:  Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18������������������������������������������������������������������������������ xxxiii Table 1.1: World Bank Projects’ Contributions to ACBP Implementation ��� 3 Table 1.2: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 Table 1.3: Knowledge Platforms that Strengthen Delivery of ACBP Components ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 Table 1.4: GPs’ Co-Benefit Contributions, FY16–FY18 ��������������������������� 12 Table 1.5: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 14 Table 1.6: DPOs with More than 50 Percent Co-Benefits, FY16–FY18 ����� 18 Table 1.7: Incorporating NDCs into SCDs and CPFs, FY16–FY18 ������� 20 Table 1.8: Assessment of NDCs in SCDs, FY18 ��������������������������������������� 21 Table 1.9: Assessment of NDCs in CPFs����������������������������������������������������� 23 Table 1.10: Definition of NDC Reference Levels����������������������������������������� 25 Table 1.11: Sample ACBP Projects that Align or Relate to NDCs within Different Levels ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 28 Table 1.12: Ethiopia: Livestock and Fisheries Sector Development Project �31 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | ix Table 1.13: Nigeria: Erosion and Watershed Management Project������� 32 Table 1.14: Western Africa Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 33 Table 1.15: Description of Core Resilience Capacities and Resilience Attributes������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 36 Table 1.16: Resilience Attributes Underpinning Core Resilience Capacities (Absorptive, Adaptive, and Transformative)����������������������������� 36 Table 2.1: Progress of World Bank Support for CSA, FY16–18������������� 51 Table 3.1: Implementation Progress that Supports Forests and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, FY16–FY18�������� 56 Table 3.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Resilient Landscapes, FY16–FY18 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 58 Table 4.1: Progress of World Bank Support for the Niger River Basin, June 2018��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 65 Table 4.2: Progress of World Bank Support for the Lake Victoria Basin, June 2018������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 66 Table 4.3: Progress of World Bank Support for the Zambezi River Basin, June 2018 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 69 Table 5.1: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Smart Ocean Economies, June 2018������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 72 Table 6.1: Progress of Support to Climate-Smart Cities, June 2018 ��� 76 Table 6.2: Ongoing and Planned World Bank Investments in Climate- Smart Cities in Africa ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 77 Table 7.1: Progress of World Bank Support to Address Coastal Erosion in Western Africa, June 2018��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 81 Table 8.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for ACBP������������ 83 Table 8.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Resilient Transport, FY16–FY19��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 84 Table 9.1: Progress of World Bank Support for Social Protection Programs, June 2018 ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 88 Table 9.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Addressing Drivers of Migration, June 2018����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 91 Table 10.1: Progress of World Bank Support for Solar Power, June 2018 ���94 Table 10.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Hydropower, June 2018���96 x | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 10.3: Progress of World Bank Support for Geothermal Energy, June 2018������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 98 Table 11.1: Progress of World Bank Support for the Hydromet Program, June 2018 ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 99 Table 12.1: Progress of World Bank Support for AFRI-RES, June 2018���� 102 Table 13.1: Support to HNP Programs������������������������������������������������������� 105 Table 14.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for Climate-Smart Education ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 113 Table 15.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness���� 117 Table 16.1: Strategic and Investment Engagement in NDCs ��������������� 123 Table 16.2: Ongoing Client Engagement on NDCs��������������������������������� 125 Table 17.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support to Harnessing Satellite Technology for Climate Resilience ����������������������������������������������� 128 Table 17.2: World Bank Support to Marine and Coastal Resources Management ����������������������������������������������������������������� 130 Table 18.1: Fast-Track and Longer-Term Phases of the ACBP and the WBG Corporate Post-2020 Climate Targets’ Timeline ��������������������������� 140 Table A.1: Qualitative Assessment of SCDs and CPFs for Integration of Climate Risks and Linkages with NDCs ����������������������������������������������������� 149 Table B.1: Distribution of Projects across ACBP Components for which Resilience Attributes and Pathway Analysis Were Applied ������������������� 151 Maps Map 1.1: Implementation of the Strengthening and Powering Resilience Clusters of the ACBP, by Country ����������������������������������������������������������������� 15 Map 1.2: NDC-Referenced ACBP Projects, FY16–FY18������������������������� 30 Map 5.1: Change in Maximum Catch Potential (%) Under (a) Low and (b) High Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios by 2050 Using the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model, 2019������������������������������������������������� 75 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xi Children play while getting water from a borehole pump, allowing them more time to study and play instead of fetching water. (Ricardo Mayer/Shutterstock) xii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Acknowledgments This report is prepared by a team led by Kanta Kumari Rigaud (Lead Environment Specialist and the Africa Region Climate Change Coordinator). The core team comprised Manuela Ravina da Silva (Junior Professional Officer), Anushree Shetty (Consultant), and Tao Wang (Senior Operations Officer). The report was produced under the overall strategic guidance of Thomas O’Brien (Senior Adviser, Africa Region Vice President Office), and direction of Benoit Bosquet (Director of Environment and Natural Resources), with guidance from Magda Lovei (Practice Manager, Environment and Natural Resources, Africa Region). The extended ACBP team, under the guidance of the Practice Managers, include the following focal points: Ademola Braimoh, Andrew Losos, Andrea Vermehren, Amina Coulibaly, Asmita Tiwari, Barend Jansen, Berengere P. C. Prince, Carolina Giovannelli, Cristin Moldovan, Cristina Marosan Ling, Jian Xie, Karin Teixeira Kaechele, Kenta Usui, Laura Bonzanigo, Margaret Arnold, Martijn Gert Jan Regelink, Mirko Ivo Serkovic, Monica Augustina, Monica Moldovan, Nathan Engle, Neeta Hooda, Opope Oyaka Tshivuila Matala, Peter Kristensen, Philippe Eric Dardel , Pierre Audinet, Prashant Singh, Tenin Fatimata Dicko, Varalakshmi Vemuru, and Veronique Morin. Colleagues from the Climate Change Group provided critical input for the portfolio analysis: Sundus Siddiqi, Tambi Matambo, Wardah Zaman, Yunziyi Lang, Viviane Clement, Adeel Abbas Syed, Ana Elisa Bucher, Andrew Zubiri, Anne T. Kuriakose Martin Vincenzo Roeck, Marius Kaiser, Laura Vanessa Altafulla Blanco, Laura McDonald Nathan Engle, Sohee Gu, Tania Abraham, Vaaruni Eashwar, and Yu Huan. Several other colleagues in the region provided timely input to the analysis: Andre Rodrigues Aquino, Cecil Nundwe, Dahlia Lotayef, Fernando Lavadenz, Jacqueline Marie Tront, Marie-Laure Lajaunie, Maria Angelica Sotomayor, Nabil Chaherli, Nicolas Perrin, Pablo Cesar Benitez, Richard Martin Humphreys, and Xiaofeng Li. The team received expert advice from peer reviewers Genevieve Connors, Dena Ringold, Maria Ionata, Mustafa Zakir Hussain, Nabil M. Chaherli, and Indira Konjhodzic. The process benefited from a joint retreat for the ACBP and corporate climate commitments. Raffaello Cervigni and Dania Mosa kindly supported the transfer of data and information from the previous ACBP reports. Administrative support was received from Virginie Vaselopulos, Lantoharifera Ramiliarisoa, Emily Catherine Olsson and Sophie W. Warlop. The report was edited by Alex Behr and Nora Fitzgerald, and Studio Grafik managed the typesetting and production process. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xiii Abbreviations All dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated. AAA Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change ACBP Africa Climate Business Plan ACP Africa Caribbean Pacific ACRIS Africa Climate Resilient Infrastructure Summit  ADRF Africa Disaster Risk Financing Initiative AFD Agence Française de Développement/French Development Agency AFDB African Development Bank AFR100 Africa Forest Landscape Initiative AFRI-RES Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility ASA Advisory Services and Analytics AUC African Union Commission BAU Business as usual BHES Batoka Gorge Hydro Electricity Scheme BRT Bus rapid transit CAFI Central African Forest Initiative CAPE Climate Action Peer Exchange CAT-DDO Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Option CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CCAP Climate Change Action Plan CDC Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa) CDD Community-driven development CIF PPCR Climate Investment Fund Pilot Program for Climate Resilience CIWA Cooperation for International Waters in Africa CMU Country Management Unit COP Conference of Parties COREP Gulf of Guinea Regional Fisheries Commission CPF Country Partnership Framework CREWS Climate Risk Early Warning System CRIP Climate Resilience Investment Plan CSA Climate-Smart Agriculture CSAIP Climate-Smart Agricultural Investment Plan CSE Ecological Monitoring Center CSIP Climate-Smart Strategies and Investment Plan DAMS Data Analysis and Monitoring System DFID Department for International Development DLI Disbursement Linked Indicator DPL Development Policy Loan DPO Development Policy Operation DRDIP Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project xiv | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development DSS Decision support system ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECRAI Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure EO Earth observation EO4SD Earth Observation for Sustainable Development ERPA Emission Reductions Payment Agreement ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FCI Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility FIP Forest Investment Program FITI Fisheries Transparency Initiative GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GEF LDCF Global Environment Facility Least Developed Countries’ Fund GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GHG Greenhouse gases GIIF Global Index Insurance Facility GIZ German Society for International Cooperation GP Global Practice GSURR Global Practice for Social, Urban and Rural Development, and Resilience HCI Human Capital Index HCP Human Capital Project HNP Health, Nutrition, and Population HPC High priority country IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICC Interregional Coordination Center ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives ICPAC International Climate Prediction, Applications Centre ICT Information and communications technology IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFC International Finance Corporation IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development ILM Integrated Landscape Management ILRI International Livestock Research Institute IOTC Indian Ocean Tuna Commission IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPF Investment project financing ISFL Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xv JOTC Joint Operational Technical Committee LIC Low-income country LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LPC Low priority country LSIPT Livestock Sector and Investment Policy Toolkit LVEMP Lake Victoria Environment Management Program LVTP Lake Victoria Transport Program M&E Monitoring and evaluation MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MFD Maximizing Finance for Development MPC Moderate priority country MSP Maritime spatial planning NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NARIGP National Agriculture and Rural Inclusive Growth Project NBA Niger Basin Authority NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDF Nordic Development Fund NGO Nongovernmental Organizations NMHS National meteorological and hydrological services NRM Natural Resource Management NST 1 National Strategy for Transformation NUSAF Northern Uganda Social Action Fund OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development P4R Program for Results PAP Priority Action Plan PDO Project Development Objective PFORR Program for Results PIDA Program for Infrastructure Development PIDACC Integrated Development and Climate Change Adaptation Program in the Niger Basin PNDES National Social and Economic Development Plan PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PROFOR Program on Forests PSNP Productive Safety Net Program RABIT Resilience Assessment Benchmarking and Impact Toolkit RECP Resource efficiency and cleaner production REDD+ Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation REDISSE Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement (West Africa) REM&EP Results Monitoring and Evaluation for Resilience-Building Operations Project RESIP Resilience Investment Project RSIF Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund SACIDS Southern African Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance SADC Southern African Development Community SAWAP Sahel and West Africa Program SCCF Special Climate Change Fund SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDG Sustainable Development Goal xvi | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development SERRP Saint Louis Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project SIDA Swedish International Development Corporation Agency SIIP Sahel Irrigation Initiative Support Project SLM Sustainable Landscape Management SOP Series of Projects SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience SPJ Social Protection and Jobs SWIOFC Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission SWIOFISH Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Project TA Technical assistance UHC Universal health coverage UMIC Upper-middle-income country UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WACA West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WARFP West Africa Regional Fisheries Project WBG World Bank Group WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization ZAMCOM Zambezi Watercourse Commission ZAMSTRAT Zambezi Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy ZAMWIS Zambezi Water Resources Information System Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xvii Foreword We are pleased to share our latest Progress Report on the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP), the World Bank’s strategic effort to support African governments as they accelerate climate-resilient and low-carbon development. The good news? We are moving faster than targeted. Between FY16 and FY18, 176 projects, with US$17 billion in World Bank financing, demonstrates the mobilization of resources ahead of our 2020 targets. The World Bank ACBP is supporting climate action across every sector. New coastal adaptation projects—such as the West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program (WACA)—will create sustainable livelihoods for marginalized communities already impacted by climate-influenced coastal erosion. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in Ethiopia, Niger, and Zambia is increasing food security for rural poor populations. Access to renewable energy is building resilience and boosting productivity with off-grid capacity for solar energy poised to transform rural livelihoods. But the urgency to step up action is loud and clear: climate impacts are intensifying faster than anticipated, while action on the mitigation front has not been as vibrant. Africa has contributed the least to global warming, and yet the continent is already experiencing some of the most devastating impacts—from the frequency and length of droughts to unpredictable rainfall and increasing floods, to name a few. Climate change is pressing and we cannot afford to be complacent. So even as some of the ACBP goals have been met, the stakes are changing, and the ACBP is evolving to stay ahead of these risks. Working together with clients, partners, the private sector, regional organizations, and experts, we remain determined to deliver agile and robust support for climate action in the years to come. Hafez Ghanem World Bank Vice President for Africa xviii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xix Women cultivate their diversified crops in Burkina Faso. (Hector Conesa/Shutterstock) xx | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Executive Summary Sub-Saharan Africa’s race to resilience became more urgent with the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5°C Special Report. The Africa Region must adapt to the 0.5°C warming of the past 50 years, while at the same time prepare for the intensification of climate change impacts. The good news is that the region is not starting from zero; the bad news is that the current pace of climate action is far from adequate. The Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP)1 has been a galvanizing platform for climate action since its launch in December 2015, yet it must be even more ambitious in the scale and pace of climate action in the face of a new urgency to manage climate risks and deliver on climate-resilient development. Highlights of the progress up to and including FY18, as well as the main outstanding challenges, are summarized here. The report also highlights successful projects that can be replicated, key lessons learned, and reflections on future strategic directions. KEY HIGHLIGHTS • Between FY16 and FY18 the World Bank has delivered 176 projects and US$17 billion in International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) financing for climate-resilient development in Sub-Saharan Africa, under the ACBP, which has exceeded the Bank resource mobilization target set out for 2020. • These investments are yielding positive outcomes on the ground through innovations in design and financing, and generating critical lessons for transformation and scale-up. • Focusing primarily on strengthening, powering, and enabling resilience in African countries, the Africa Region registered climate co-benefits of 27 percent in 2018, exceeding the year’s regional target of 22 percent and the 25 percent co-benefits in 2017. • But the race to resilience is getting harder: the current pace of climate action in Sub- Saharan Africa is far from sufficient: the needs are urgent when it comes to both adaptation and preparation for the intensification of climate impacts. • The World Bank is stepping up its engagement with African countries on their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to ensure that climate action is mainstreamed into our Country Partnerships Frameworks (CPFs) and project pipelines. 1 See the Africa Climate Business Plan website, http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-climate- business-plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxi KEY HIGHLIGHTS (continued) • The ACBP proposes to intensify its action and engagement on climate adaptation and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa through (i) expediting mainstreaming of climate action for transformation at scale; (ii) supporting scaled-up and transformational investments in key sectors, including climate smart health and education, to strengthen health systems and build skills for climate- resilient economies of the future; (iii) harnessing innovation and technology, such as satellite technology, to leapfrog countries for climate resilience; and (iv) raising climate finance and accelerate the mobilization of private sector investment, particularly for renewable energies. Portfolio-Level Progress The ACBP and the wider Sub-Saharan Africa portfolio are making progress in meeting targets of the Plan and corporate climate commitments. Resource Mobilization • In FY18, the World Bank board approved 68 projects, with a Bank commitment of US$8.21 billion. These projects cover a range of financing instruments, including investment projects, development policies, and programs for results. Between FY16 and FY18, 176 projects and US$17 billion of Bank financing has been delivered, which is twice the Bank’s 2020 resource mobilization target of US$8.483 billion set out under the ACBP (table ES.1). • Delivery of resources across all three clusters—strengthening resilience, powering resilience, and enabling resilience—is well on track or ahead of schedule. Adaptation financing reflects about two-thirds of the total mobilized. • Delivery through financial flows directly handled by the Bank (IDA, IBRD, and the trust funds Global Environment Facility [GEF], Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery [GFDRR], and carbon finance) is tracked systematically and available through the World Bank’s reporting system. Due diligence in tracking the financing leveraged from other sources (such as bilateral agencies, additional multilateral development banks, and the private sector) needs improved monitoring moving forward. • The pipeline of investments continues to be strong. xxii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development World Bank Projects Contributing to ACBP Implementation Table ES.1:  Cumulative Cumulative Resource mobilization Status number of commitments against target against Fiscal Year Semester end projects ($ million) ($8.483 billion) target Board approved projects December 31, 2015 3 430.0 FY16 June 30, 2016 33 3,074.6 36 % December 31, 2016 53 4,360.7 FY17 June 30, 2017 108 8,779 25% 103 % December 31, 2017 131 11,148 FY18 June 30, 2018 176 16,997 200 % Preliminary projections based on pipeline December 31, 2019 269 25,964 50% FY19 June 30, 2019 320 32,277 December 31, 2019 331 33,994 75% FY20 June 30, 2020 335 34,714 Note: Figures for the World Bank Board of Directors-approved projects up to June 30, 2108 (FY18) are final. Figures for the pipeline are estimates and subject to change. The volume of World Bank financing for ACBP projects includes IDA and IBRD (no Trust Funds (TF)). Climate Co-Benefits and Other Corporate Commitments Tracking of the climate mitigation and adaptation co-benefits for Bank financing of projects indicated a historical high of 27 percent for the Africa Region in FY18, surpassing 25 percent in FY17, and higher than the region’s target of 22 percent. The region’s contribution to co-benefits throughout the Bank is significant (figure ES.1). One hundred percent of projects have been screened for climate and disaster risks. Focused training on the full package of climate commitments—screening, co-benefits, greenhouse gases (GHG), and shadow price—at the Climate Change boot camps (in West and East Africa) and through customized face-to-face training, has increased awareness and capacities of staff and is yielding more effective design and delivery of climate action and co-benefits within investments and policy lending. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxiii Figure ES.1: Annual Share of Co-Financing with Climate Co-Benefits for World Bank Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa, FY15-FY18 18,000 35% 33% 16,000 30% Percentage Climate Co-Benefits (%) 14,000 27% 25% 25% 12,000 22% Million ($USD) 22% 10,000 20% 18% 8,000 15% 15% 6,000 10% 4,000 8% 7% 5% 2,000 0 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 World Bank Climate Co-Benefits ($M) Africa Region Climate Co-Benefits ($M) Africa Region Climate World Bank Climate Africa Region Climate Co-benefits (%) Co-benefits (%) Co-benefit target (%) Upstream and Downstream Climate Integration The World Bank Group’s upstream country engagement model consists of (i) a Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), which assesses constraints and the steps each country needs to take to achieve the Bank’s twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity; and (ii) a CPF, which lays out the Bank’s program of support to a country, typically over a five-year period. Overall, good upstream strategic integration of climate change risks and opportunities was achieved in the 10 SCDs and three CPFs in FY18: • Climate is increasingly embedded into more than just the natural resource management focus areas in CPFs; and one CPF (Tanzania) even included an indicator to track climate co-benefits at the country level. • Both CPFs and SCDs reflect increased linkages with countries’ NDCs submitted under the Paris Agreement—going beyond strategic alignment to address sectoral and multisectoral connections, as well as links with the NDC results framework (e.g., in Guinea). • Downstream, the ACBP investments increasingly support the implementation of NDCs through 49 investment projects, with links ranging from strategic alignment to design features of projects, to tracking delivery through results frameworks (e.g., the Western Africa Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement (REDISSE) Phase II, US$147 million). • The Bank is working directly with eight client countries on their NDCs, specifically xxiv | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development on adaptation, mitigation, and cross-cutting issues. It is currently supporting Uganda, the first African country to have an NDC Partnership Plan, on systemic shifts to institutionalize change at scale by embedding climate budget tagging and climate risk screening into national processes. Resilience Capacity Enhancement An analysis of the ACBP portfolio reveals that projects are increasing core resilience capacities (86 percent adaptive, 65 percent absorptive, and 20 percent transformative) through their interventions. Well-designed projects bolster the multiple pathways (e.g., through Niger’s climate-smart agriculture [CSA] project and Kenya’s National Agriculture and Rural Inclusive Growth Project [NARIGP]) to build these capacities by embedding concrete resilience attributes (e.g., robustness, preparedness, and redundancy). See Box ES.1 for a description of the World Bank-IFC Lighting Africa program project that provides low-income communities across Sub-Saharan Africa with lighting options. Box ES.1 Lighting Up Low-Income Communities across Sub-Saharan Africa When Adwoa Adezawa, a young Ghanaian fishmonger, was asked in 2016 about what would help her the most, she said basic community services—especially energy. She wanted light, so her children can read, and refrigeration, so she can sell more of her fish on the occasions when catch is plenty. Two years later, in the summer of 2018, more than 40 million people like her are meeting their basic energy needs through products provided with the support of the joint World Bank-IFC Lighting Africa program. This innovative and far-reaching effort was created just for low-income families like Adezawa’s, with the aim of providing off-grid solar lighting to 250 million people living without a grid connection in Sub-Saharan Africa in the next decade. Program activities now include support for the productive use of solar (e.g., solar irrigation and milling), community services (e.g., for schools and health centers), super-efficient household appliances (e.g., fans, TVs, household refrigeration), and innovative pay as you go business models that enable rural, low-income populations to access modern clean energy solutions. The Lighting Africa program has spread across the continent and across the globe—evolving into Lighting Global. Lighting Global is the World Bank Group’s initiative to rapidly increase access to off-grid solar energy for the 1 billion people living without grid electricity around the world. Access to electricity makes people better off—and better able to adapt to climate change. Progress of ACBP Components and Introduction of New Components The ACBP, conceived inclusively, has identified more than a dozen priority areas (business lines) for climate action supporting the three mutually reinforcing resilience clusters: strengthening resilience, powering resilience, and enabling resilience. Table 1.1 highlights the progress made since inception in support of each ACBP component through approved projects, analytical work, and advocacy. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxv Strengthening Resilience This cluster continues to see strong performance through IDA and IBRD resources. Several ACBP components have exceeded expectations, particularly climate-smart agriculture (CSA), integrated watershed management, climate smart cities, and social protection in response to a growing demand for these investments. Social protection projects saw a fivefold increase in delivery, in part due to climate-related impacts and the need for increased resilience support. While ACBP components have seen a strong delivery, the accelerated pace of climate impacts requires stepping up financing and action. A sustained and upscaled focus on existing well-conceived and agreed plans should be prioritized. Equally, the call for anticipatory planning (e.g., in strategic multicountry river basins) and more programmatic interventions must be heeded to prevent poor adaptation, leading to increasingly vulnerable and marginalized communities. Opportunities for carbon sequestration through afforestation, reforestation, and land use options in support of community resilience and ecosystems services are even more compelling as the global community pursues multiple strategies to reduce emissions. Investing in human and social capital focused on social resilience, including through health and education, can help families develop a sturdy social safety net to cope with the threats of climate impacts to their communities. Powering Resilience The Bank has provided direct financing and risk guarantees for a number of solar, hydro, and geothermal power generation projects in this cluster, putting the Bank on track to achieve renewable energy target commitments in the ACBP. Key actors agree that Africa’s climate smart development must include planning for a generation mix of fuels to optimize cost and efficiency, as well as to ensure that power utilities are financially viable enough to be creditworthy for private renewable power generation. Regional power interconnections can be strengthened to enable low-cost renewables. The Bank is supporting client governments in Africa to address these broader sector challenges. Enabling Resilience This cluster—a composite of projects, knowledge generation, and capacity building— has a critical role to strengthen overall delivery. Using the Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility (AFRI-RES) and other knowledge platforms for analytics and capacity building (e.g., TerrAfrica, Cooperation for International Waters in Africa [CIWA], Program on Forests [PROFOR], and West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program [WACA] Knowledge Platform) can multiply these enabling gains and affect change at scale. Under the AFRI-RES facility, more than a dozen projects across the ACBP components (agriculture, transport, water, cities, and energy) have received dedicated technical assistance to embed climate resilience into the design for shared learning and dissemination. See box ES.2 for a description of the WACA Management Program. See box ES.3 for ways Kenya is being protected in the face of public health emergencies or disasters. Table ES.2 introduces the new ACBP components (Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation [FCI]; Education; and Health, Nutrition, and Population [HNP]) and xxvi | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development other areas (Harnessing Satellite Technology for Innovation and Climate Resilience and Strategic Support for NDCs) that need more attention to help deliver concerted climate action in Sub-Saharan Africa. Box ES.2 WACA Management Program Amélé Effowe is one of a few Togolese residents clinging to a community being swallowed by the sea. “Before, we had coconut trees,” Effowe said. “We could produce coconut oil. Coastal erosion took away our coconut trees.” It has also taken away homes and livelihoods. However, West African governments—supported by the World Bank and partners—are beginning to pro- tect and manage the region’s coastal assets. The challenge is massive, requiring investment projects and a scale-up mechanism. The first WACA Resilience Investment Project (ResIP) was approved by the World Bank in April 2018. The financial package includes a credit of US$190 million from the IDA and a grant of US$20.25 million from the GEF. WACA ResIP is working with six countries (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauri- tania, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, and Togo) and existing regional institutions. The Nordic Develop- ment Fund and France has since contributed additional resources, and others are expected to follow. The investment is urgent: coastal erosion and flooding in West Africa severely threaten people’s communities, livelihoods, safety, and infrastructure. Another innovation is the recently launched WACA Platform, which is mobilizing public, private, and civil society partners to scale up knowledge and crowd in finance for these countries to maximize their resilience. Box ES.3 Protection When Disaster Strikes in Kenya Climate change hampers efforts to boost people out of poverty. The US$200 million Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Financing with Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) is providing Kenya with rapid access to funding in the event of a disaster or public health emergency, while supporting key reforms that strengthen the country’s ability to manage the impacts of disasters on the economy and the most vulnerable individuals. This project supports the government’s proactive efforts to manage disaster and climate risks with a comprehensive program of reforms that will minimize the burden of economic recovery. The Cat DDO will also support improvements in building the regulato- ry environment within Kenyan cities. Key Challenges Knowledge gaps, capacity, and resource constraints are pressing issues for several of Sub- Saharan countries. Key challenges include the following needs: • More transformational responses to support deep, systemic shifts (e.g., CSA technologies and practices; addressing drivers of migration). • Financing to deepen engagement and sustain momentum of climate action (e.g., reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation [REDD+], Emission Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxvii Reductions Payment Agreements [ERPAs], scaling up off-grid electrification technologies; hydromet programs). • Rural financing to support rural communities and test innovative mechanisms to crowd in private investment. • Increased access to innovative technology, including remote sensing and geo-spatial capabilities and data science, for managing and monitoring natural systems (e.g., river basins, agricultural areas, forest systems). • Upstream analysis to systematically embed climate resilience into sectoral (e.g., transport systems) and multisectoral contexts (e.g., climate smart cities). Highlights and Success Stories The ACBP portfolio has numerous success stories illustrating delivery at the policy, program, and project levels. These investments yield positive outcomes on the ground through innovations in design and financing. Many of these are ripe for scale up and replication. Some illustrative examples: • The Cashew Value Chain Competitiveness Project in Côte d’Ivoire will directly benefit 225,000 farmers, cashew processors, and traders, as well as rural youth through direct employment, while generating the multiple benefits of CSA. • As Madagascar prepares for the signing of an Emissions Reduction Payment Agreement, the government’s efforts to establish an inclusive and nationally owned forest monitoring system comprising nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), university and research teams, and government ministries is exemplary and replicable. • Mozambique’s Integrated Landscape Management (ILM) Portfolio is maximizing finance for development through mobilizing commercial resources for agriculture and forest value chains, leveraging private equity for protected area management, and promoting partnerships between the private sector and communities. • The Lake Victoria Transport Project and the Lake Victoria Environmental Management projects are coordinating to manage climate and environmental risks to and from transport development, and to support resilient rural livelihood development through both sustainable natural resources management and improved market access. • The Senegal–Saint-Louis Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project is seeking to reduce the vulnerability of populations to coastal hazards—to floods that have already reached inside their schools and homes—along the Langue de Barbarie and to strengthen urban and coastal resilience planning of the city of Saint-Louis. • The Integrated Feeder Roads Development project in Mozambique will increase access to roads where rural poor populations live in relative isolation; it reflects the importance of climate mainstreaming to generate multiplier benefits to the economy and people. • The recently approved US$225 million WACA investment program will support six countries and four regional institutions as they reduce climate risks, and will benefit from the recently launched WACA Platform, which will mobilize public, private, and civil society partners for scaling up knowledge and finance. • As Cameroon starts meeting its energy demand through renewable sources, the Nachtigal Hydropower Project is not only crowding in private capital and reducing public debt but also lowering the overall costs of service for electricity. xxviii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development • Global Solar Power and Global Wind Atlases completed in 2017 provide quick and easy access for potential project sites to support renewable energy investments. • The Kenya Catastrophic Disaster Drawdown Option put in place key reforms to strengthen the country’s ability to manage disaster and climate risks, with provision for rapid access to funds in the event of disasters. Scaled-up and robust actions through stepped-up financing and the replication of successful projects are urgent priorities. ACBP support has led to the development of certain dedicated investment plans and bankable projects. These include the Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plans (Côte d’Ivoire, Lesotho, Mali, Zambia, and Zimbabwe); the Strategic Programs for Climate Resilience (Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda) under the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience; large-scale programs for performance-based payments for REDD+ and enhanced carbon stocks in 10 countries; the Niger Climate Resilient Investment Plan, and the Strategic Plan for the Zambezi River Basin. Natural ecosystems deliver livelihoods and food security for more than 70 percent of the region’s population and continue to demand significant attention. Lessons Learned Lessons are emerging on how best to embed climate resilience and ensure that investments continue to provide durable and sustainable outcomes. Key lessons: • Dedicated technical assistance for specialized information and technology. This includes (i) access to geospatial information and data analysis to support policy makers and decision making; (ii) moving from reactive to proactive business models on climate- resilient and low-carbon transport, emphasizing transformative core technical work on decarbonization; (iii) identifying opportunities for maritime spatial planning (MSP); and (iv) designing social protection interventions and upstream analysis of transitions to cities for climate resilient buildings, infrastructure, and services. • Enhanced capacity and development of skills and strategies to advance the work on climate risk management. Examples include (i) capacities to pioneer and advance green competitiveness and innovation for investments to protect industries against climate impacts; (ii) addressing climate change in the health sector and as a cross-cutting sector issue in other sectors; (iii) promoting market system approaches and mobilizing private sector resources for agricultural development; and (iv) leveraging financing to deepen engagement and implementation of large-scale REDD+ performance-based programs. • Build knowledge by developing a better understanding of the climate-development nexus. These include (i) linkages of climate factors with financial sectors through research, data collection, and dissemination workshops; (ii) financing climate-smart infrastructure and integrating information on climate change issues; (iii) embedding climate change in education curriculum and teacher training; (iv) monitoring impacts of climate induced migration; and (v) addressing the need for mobility as an adaptation strategy. • Need for systematic and systemic support for climate action to be institutionalized. These shifts, including policy reforms, could lead to (i) improvements in the form and function of African cities; (ii) climate-resilient buildings and stronger building regulations; and (iii) support for strengthening of regional power interconnections to enable low-cost renewables. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxix ACBP Forward Look—Strategic Directions Several recent World Bank studies underscore the adverse impacts from climate change on ecosystems, livelihoods. and people in Sub-Saharan Africa. • The Changing Wealth of Nations: Building a Sustainable Future (Lange, Wodon, and Carey 2018) notes that some low-income countries—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa—saw a decline in per capita forest and agricultural land wealth. Degradation of natural resources coupled with the mounting evidence of impacts of climate change— on water, drylands, cities, agriculture, and migration—will have grave consequences on Africa’s development. • Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability (Damania et al. 2017) presents evidence on how the impacts of water scarcity and drought may be even greater than previously projected, causing long-term, intergenerational harm in ways that have previously been ignored or inadequately documented. For example, the study reveals that children born during severe droughts in rural Africa suffer adverse health effects throughout their lives with direct consequences for their offspring, who are much more likely to suffer from malnutrition as well. • Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration (Rigaud et al. 2018) projects that by 2050, the number of climate migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa could reach up to 86 million (under the pessimistic reference scenario); the region will see an emergence of hot spots of climate in- and climate out-migration as a consequence of lower water availability, loss in crop productivity, and rising sea level and storm surges. Climate change and its impacts will interact in multiple and complex ways with other megatrends unfolding in the region. • By 2050, Africa will account for the highest population growth—with an additional 1.3 billion people—representing just over half of the added global population (UN 2017). The economic growth in African countries is driven by a surging population, increasing levels of education, and technology absorption. Whether Africa’s demographic surge is a dividend or disaster depends on how governments harness key factors, including the potential of youth and the participation of women in the labor force. Sectors such as agriculture, which have traditionally absorbed the working population, will be increasingly challenged in the face of climate change. • In Africa, the proportion of undernourished children and those suffering from moderate and severe stunting is projected to increase with climate change, with the most significant increase of 31 percent to 55 percent for severe stunting. • Power demand will increase to more than 3,100 terawatt hours by 2040; corresponding transport volumes will increase six to eight times, with a particularly strong increase of up to 14 times for some landlocked countries; water needs will push some river basins—including the Nile, Niger, Orange, and Volta—to the ecological brink; information and communications technology (ICT) demand will swell by a factor of 20 before 2020 as Africa catches up with broadband. • Hydropower capacity is planned to increase by a factor of six, and the irrigated area by 60 percent— but up to 700 percent in some basins (AUC, AfDB, and UNECA 2012). xxx | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development • With increasing urbanization, urban populations will double over the next 25 years, from 472 million people to nearly 1 billion, as more rural migrants are pushed or drawn to Africa’s cities (Lall, Henderson, and Venables 2017). Climate action through the ACBP must consider the challenges and opportunities presented by megatrends to support Sub-Saharan African countries in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This holistic approach—through low- carbon and climate-resilient strategies—will guard against maladaptation or a lock-in to inflexible adaptation options. Adopting low-carbon pathways will help countries leapfrog toward climate-resilient sustainable development. Building resilience requires a package of interventions—incremental, sequential and transformational—that respond to the uncertainties in which climate impacts may play out in local and regional contexts. Anticipatory and proactive strategies are critical to help Africa prepare for climate change. Investments in human capital—as an aggregation of education, skills, and health— must be cognizant of climate impacts that can undermine the gains across sectors and the economy, and over generations. African economies need long-lasting infrastructure designed to standards that withstand climate impacts and that can ensure delivery of services. These investments will secure and sustain resilience. The region must harness technology for growth and opportunity. For example, while still below the global average of 65 percent, mobile subscriber penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa stood at 44 percent (444 million) by the end of 2017 and is expected to rise to 52 percent by 2050 (Yonazi et al. 2012). The ACBP, now in its third year, is a robust platform to fortify and galvanize climate action and chart the future road map. Building on the challenges, achievements, and lessons learned, the ACBP must focus on deepening engagement and support for transformational and scaled-up climate action. Four new ACBP components address some challenges and opportunities to further accelerate climate action. These include a focus on (i) strategic engagement through NDCs to mainstream and institutionalize climate into national processes; (ii) health and education to deliver human capital that is healthy and well-skilled to address and counter climate impacts; (iii) green financial systems to mainstream climate risks into policies and regulations, standards, and frameworks (these will govern the financial sector and improve financial protection against climate-related risks to promote green competitiveness); and (iv) harnessing satellite technology for climate resilience (example of disruptive technology to help countries leapfrog into resilience through innovative applications in specific investments and through dedicated capacity building). The ACBP will consolidate and intensify action and engagement on climate adaptation and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa through these emerging strategic directions: Strategic and systemic country engagement for NDCs. Expedite institutionalization of climate action for transformation at scale—across sectors and geographies—by working with countries, regional organizations, and international experts. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxxi Scaled-up and transformational investments in key sectors and areas. Sustain an upscaled focus on CSA and landscapes, and power resilience through renewables, climate- smart cities, and transport systems through existing well-conceived and agreed investment plans. Invest in human and social capital focused on health, education, and social resilience to short-circuit the intergenerational downward spiral from climate impacts. Mobilize the private sector to boost value chains and access to (energy) markets while harnessing momentum for the Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD) approach. Harness innovation, technology, and knowledge to drive resilience. Mobilize innovation and technology that supports environments conducive to green growth. Mobilize disruptive technology, such as satellite technology applications, to leapfrog countries toward climate resilience. Foster platforms for climate knowledge and exchange. Raise climate finance and mobilize the private sector. Resource mobilization for climate action and close the gap on resource needs. Mobilize the private sector for renewable energies and innovations, such as blue and green bonds. The ACBP’s Forward Look will be further refined and aligned with the World Bank Group’s 2025 Targets to Step Up Climate Action2, which are structured around five themes: • Systematically increasing direct financing • Significantly increase leverage of private finance • Boosting support for adaptation • Increasing systemic impact in countries • Elevating climate actions in key sectors Conclusion The ACBP Third Implementation Progress Report, reflecting 176 projects and US$17 billion of bank financing, demonstrates resource mobilization well ahead of 2020 targets. Yet climate change is a dangerously moving target, and as impacts accelerate, so must countries’ core resilience capacities. The ACBP supports national and regional climate action across every sector from CSA in Niger to rural inclusion in Kenya’s growth. Mozambique’s newly protected areas complement improved value chains, and West Africa’s coastal area adaptation could create new livelihoods for marginalized coastal communities. Access to renewable forms of energy enhance resilience of populations in multiple ways. Even as some ACBP goals have been met, the stakes are changing, and the ACBP is evolving to stay ahead of these risks (see summary in table ES.2). Sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionately impacted by climate change despite historically low contributions to global warming. The limited availability of climate finance, procedural complexities, increased demand for information, and severe capacity constraints require urgent attention if this region is to receive the requisite financing. Private sector financing must be a key part of the solution. 2 http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/368601543772742074/2025-Targets-to-Step-Up-Climate-Action.pdf xxxii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE Natural Capital Need for more transformational responses to support deep, systemic, scale up in CSA The World Bank’s Board approved 57 projects supporting CSA technologies and practices; leverage the with cumulative commitments of US$1.8 billion. These projects big data and geospatial capabilities of the aim to improve the livelihoods of 6.6 million farmers and increase Agricultural Intelligence Observatory (Ag Climate-Smart the climate resilience and productivity of more than 2.9 million Observatory) in targeting climate-smart Agriculture hectares of land. interventions; promote efforts to mainstream (CSA) resilience into agriculture sector policies, CSA Investment Plans (CSIPs) were prepared for five countries, incentives and investment; promote market 10 CSA country profiles were completed; continued leadership system approaches and mobilize private on knowledge and advocacy through multiple fora. sector resources for agricultural development; and assist client countries in improving food security risk management Good overall progress. Ethiopia Sustainable Landscape More financing is needed to support rural Management Program targeting 807,300 hectares, and 8.8 communities, test innovative mechanisms million incremental carbon dioxides equivalent accumulated; to crowd in private investment; targeted Climate- more than 400,000 households involved. In Sudan, 100,000 Technical Assistance, policies and Resilient hectares of land are managed by sustainable landscape technology uptake; and enhancing Landscapes management practices; and more than 15,000 hectares geographical reach. Diversification (Drylands) benefit from enhanced biodiversity protection. Intervention on and increase of vegetation cover to be institutional, policy, and information took place in: Ethiopia, implemented on 100 million hectares Mozambique, Burundi, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, preventing degradation (by 2030). Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, DRC, and Uganda. Leverage financing to deepen engagement and sustain momentum: additional FCPF endorsements for REDD+; implementation of large-scale REDD+ performance-based programs; signing of the first Emission Covers multiple country programs, harnessing a range of Reductions Payment Agreement (ERPA) instruments and financing to advance the agenda: The Africa need investment resources to be able to Forest Landscapes Program has 17 active country programs implement their FIP plans; more proactive benefitting communities; funding includes BioCarbon, Forest Climate- engagement from the private sector, Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), the REDD+ Readiness Fund, Resilient particularly around commodities’ supply the Carbon Fund, and the Forest Investment Program (FIP). About Landscapes chains (e.g. cocoa), is needed. The World US$101 million was committed from the FCPF to 15 countries. Over (Forests) Bank’s Forest Action Plan provides a US$30 million has been allocated from the Central African Forest guiding framework, and the Mid-Term review Initiative (CAFI) to four countries; 10 countries are preparing large- currently underway is evaluating the Bank’s scale programs for performance-based payments for REDD+ and overall progress (16-18) in sustainable enhanced carbon stocks. 11 countries are supported by the FIP. forestry, forest-smart interventions (in non-forest sectors), climate resilience, rights and participation, and institutions and governance, including gender and biodiversity aspects. Beyond the focus on strategic river basins one needs to consider strategic planning to systematically frame Integrated climate-resilience-focused lending. Analytical work and decision support tools: Use of a variety of lending Watershed instruments for resilience programming: Niger CRIP – see below; Multi-phased Programmatic Approach; Management Development Policy Operations. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxxiii Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 (continued) ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE The Bank will finalize the preparation of Project The Bank and nine country counterparts identified a priority set 1 of the Building Climate Resilience in the Niger of 123 interventions based on the Climate Resilience Investment Basin Program and continue the preparation of Niger River Plan (CRIP) for the Niger at an estimated cost of US$1.9 billion; the following projects of the Series of Projects Basin finalizing preparation for two lending operations; supervising the (SOP). The AfDB PIDACC project’s preparation implementation of the Sahel Irrigation Initiative project. will be finalized; increase use of remote sensing to improve monitoring of the basin. LVEMP2 was completed with multiple outcomes: protects ecological infrastructure; 28,118 hectares of soil erosion-affected land under sustainable land management practices and 3,523 The LVEMP3 is under preparation, with of degraded wetlands restored or rehabilitated through over 630 US$225 million IDA committed by five community-driven development (CDD) activities; over 12,000 LVB countries. LVTP and the LVEMP are farmers have adopted soil and water conservation measures coordinating with and complementing each Lake Victoria under climate-smart agriculture practices; new public sanitation other to manage climate and environmental Basin facilities (serving around 150,000 people; major improvements risks to and from transport development in wastewater management in seven towns; water navigation and to support resilient rural livelihood improved; a technical assistance on resource efficiency and development through both sustainable cleaner production (RECP) resulted in US$26 million of private natural resources management and improved sector investment; the first phase of the Lake Victoria Transport market access. Program (LVTP) in Rwanda was approved in 2017; assessment of climate risks completed for the Mwanza region of Tanzania. Strategic Planning for a Common Investment Framework is at advanced stage; combined investments in the 8 riparian countries amount to more than US$2 billion. The Diagnostic Phase and Strategic Direction Reports are complete. Basin The Zambezi Basin is one of 4 priority river development scenarios are currently under preparation, to basins in Africa under the CIWA MDTF be followed by benefit sharing assessments.; Data sharing transboundary water program - an entry point Zambezi Basin and decision support system now operational; Legislation to catalyze future financing opportunities in & Policy Equivalence Analysis -harmonized options been the basin; engaging innovative technologies proposed: options and recommendations will be considered such as LiDAR and modelling that will help in future support initiatives; Batoka Hydropower Development identify further areas for support. Investment: all studies are at an advanced stage and are being supplemented by additional analyses, taking into account climate variability and macro-economic viability. The Bank made 17.1 million in direct investments in the climate- smart ocean economy. Steady progress has been made against the target of US$220 million (by 2020), increasing from 9 percent in FY 16 to 42 percent in 2017, and 71 percent in FY 18; through direct investments and Program for Results operations in support of pilot fisheries and climate-resilient livelihood projects; Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is an area mobilized US$500 million from Nordic Development Fund (NDF); where client demand is growing quickly, Climate-smart SWIOFish1 (P132123), SWIOFish2 (P153370) and SWIOFish3 and where the World Bank could play an ocean economy (P155642) operations continue to strengthen fisheries important role by increasing TA and assisting governance in Comoros, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, in the identification of opportunities and and Seychelles; First Blue Bond issued by the Government of carrying out investments. Seychelles to support the transition to a Blue Economy; new ASA to improve fisheries governance and increase economic benefits and inputs to investment operations in COREP; Fisheries Transparency Initiative (FiTI) to help institutionalize transparency in the fisheries sector. xxxiv | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 (continued) ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE Physical Capital Efforts have moved beyond technical assistance toward dedicated financing in three areas: (a) capacity building; (b) resilient infrastructure, buildings, and services; and (c) partnerships and city networking for knowledge sharing. The target of developing resilience plans in 20 African cities by 2022 has been well Climate-Smart Cities is a crucial and large, surpassed, with local resilience planning and capacity building multi-sectoral business line: Policy changes activities completed or underway in more than 100 cities. The Bank to improve the form and functions of African has committed a total of US$2.27 billion to support investment cities, shift to climate-resilient buildings, Climate-smart operations for climate- and disaster-resilient development in infrastructure, services, efficient land-use cities urban areas across twelve countries. Seven of the investments and planning and building regulations, and directly target medium (Saint Louis, Freetown) and large (Accra, enforcement capacity is key. There is a critical Antananarivo, Dakar, Dar Es Salaam, Ibadan) cities, while the need to invest in upstream analysis through remaining target several cities across their respective countries. In such transitions. terms of partnerships and city networking for knowledge sharing, the Bank is a part of the Medellin Collaboration on urban resilience and has been working closely with international partners. Stronger capacity for integrated risk management is expected to benefit more than 100 cities and about 70 million people. The US$225 million (including US$190 million of IDA and US$20.25 million of GEF) WACA Resilience Investment Project (ResIP) was approved by the WB Board for six countries and four regional institutions. The program will address coastal erosion, flooding, improved watershed management, and support pollution control. A WACA Platform was launched to scale up the WACA program Recognizing the needs for financing—on to the order of US$2 billion. The Platform will mobilize knowledge the order of US$2 billion, and building on a and expertise to customize technical solutions to development successful WACA Program Launch, where challenges, establish a market place for countries to mobilize thirteen governments adopted the WACA Coastal the financing and public-private partnerships in support of their Communiqué —the WACA Platform will seek resilience (West multi-sector investment plans, and significantly raise the game to attract existing and develop new financing Africa) by engaging highest level of decision-makers. The Platform is instruments; an engagement of the ICC with Bank-executed supported by a EUR 5 million grant from the other regions of Africa needs to be scaled up Nordic Development Fund, and US$1 million from the GFDRR. that are experiencing similar pressure in the Once the platform is operating the function for knowledge, coastal zone. finance and dialogue would be transferred to one or more regional organizations. In the interest in scaling up further, a dialogue was initiated with the Interregional Coordination Center (ICC) in Yaoundé, Cameroon which supports implementation of the regional strategy on safety and security within the Central and West African common maritime space. To move from a reactive to a proactive business Since 2016, a progressively larger share of newly approved model on climate-resilient and low-carbon transport projects embedding climate considerations to: (i) improve transport in Africa, the Bank will continue the resilience of African transport infrastructure to climate change; to emphasize transformative core technical and (ii) improve the carbon-efficiency of transport systems in Sub- work on resilience (logistics and freight; urban Climate-Smart Saharan Africa. Commitment of US$ 1.9 billion, of which 90 percent mobility systems, data and information for Transport IDA funds, for fifteen climate informed projects over that three-year infrastructure design, a priori planning for period. The latest addition to the Bank portfolio consists of four disaster response, capacity building) and climate informed transport projects and represents the entirety of decarbonization of transport systems (urban the Fiscal Year 2018 transport approvals for Africa, with a combined transit lines, efficiency of trucking fleet, IDA financing commitment of US$ 553 million. strengthen enabling environment). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxxv Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 (continued) ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE Human and Social Capital The role of safety net programs in responding A total of 33 projects at over US$2 billion, were financed by IDA to shocks is increasingly important. Funds and trust fund resources; this greatly exceeded the targets set from the Crisis Response Window were out in the ACBP, reflecting a growing demand for these services. channeled through national safety net. Increasingly, this includes adaptive elements, including scaled- Technical assistance to help governments up safety net programs, based on early warning information identify and secure financing to scale up for the use of seasonal assessment and humanitarian appeals safety nets is essential, as well as work is on Social to the creation of new triggers based on data from satellites. macro-insurance (to be offered through the Protection The Bank is increasingly working together with humanitarian Africa Risk Capacity, contingency budgets, partners to harmonize approaches and build systems. Public and instruments, including Development Policy works programs funded in Ethiopia, Niger, Madagascar, and Loans with CAT-DDOs and more traditional Tanzania are increasingly focusing on investments in landscape humanitarian financing) and the design, testing management (e.g. soil conservation, watershed management, and piloting of productive interventions that reforestation, rehabilitation of eroded lands) that have direct promote livelihood diversification are emerging effects on climate mitigation. as important areas. Flows of forcibly displaced people continue to Several large operations, with financing of more than a US$300 increase in the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes million, were approved for Kenya, Uganda, the Great Lakes, Region, the Lake Chad region, the Sahel, and and Regional (Development Response to Displacement Impacts other countries on the continent; approach of Project - DRDIP in Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti) projects to address Addressing providing longer-term development solutions the impacts of forced displacement and migration; Additional Drivers and and transitioning from emergency assistance Financing of US$8.18 million for Kenya DRDIP; US$150 million Impacts of is proving to have transformative impact. As for Uganda; and smaller targeted projects, including a US$3 Migration Bank operations in this area continue to grow, it million Grant to IGAD to set up the Regional Secretariat on Forced will be important to monitor impacts and share Displacement and Mixed Migration and target inclusive community learning as it emerges. Need to get ahead of resilience and gender-based violence (Somalia). Adaptation the curve to advance mobility as an adaptation measures were also implemented in Sao Tome and Principe. strategy, drawing on good practice. POWERING RESILIENCE On track to achieve short-term target of supporting 1GW of grid- Due to the falling cost of solar PV and connected solar by 2023. Approved lending for six grid-connected successful cases of solar auctions in SSA, solar projects in 5 countries and ECOWAS in the amount of there is increasing demand for the Bank US$80 million. The total solar generation capacity through these to support grid-connected PV electricity operations sums up to 650MW. The progress towards off-grid expansion as a solution to reduce dependency target to support 5 million consumers by 2023 is relatively slow on fossil-fuel thermal electricity generation. due to the nascence of the sub-sector in many SSA countries: ten There are at least six grid-connected solar Solar power projects were approved for US$500 million, and this is expected projects currently in the pipeline and a clear to provide off-grid electricity services to an estimated 1.4 million expansion of battery storage tied to PV households. As the sub-sector matures, there is likely to be an electricity generation. There is also a strong increased investment in this space. World Bank/ESMAP has momentum for scaling up off-grid electrification launched a Global Solar Atlas to guide solar development in technologies, including solar home systems Africa and elsewhere. The Bank has also been leading Lighting and mini-grids. The Bank is also preparing Africa and the Lighting Global programs, which support the a regional project in West Africa to support scale-up of solar home systems (case study below). private solar off-grid solutions in the region. Considering increasing development In this period, the Bank approved ten projects, which included of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), support for hydropower development at the total scale of complementary services provided by 460MW. The largest project was the Nachtigal hydropower hydropower should be further analyzed and project in Cameroon with a capacity of 420MW. The remaining Hydropower enhanced in upcoming projects; Ancillary 60MW are from small hydro projects at various stages of services and flexibility brought by hydropower development. With pipeline projects in Malawi and Sierra Leone are crucial for the stability of energy systems – totaling 448MW, the Bank should be on track to meet the target further support to the development of market of supporting 1GW by 2026. and remuneration for ancillary services. xxxvi | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 (continued) ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look POWERING RESILIENCE In 2016, the Bank approved US$53.2 million to further support geothermal plants in Kenya (Olkaria I and IV, which totaled 280MW). This constitutes important progress towards the target of supporting 500 MW by 2026. In Ethiopia, geothermal drilling at Other countries in East Africa are in the the Aluto Langano site has been delayed but is now progressing. reconnaissance and early exploration phase; Geothermal The Bank is also supporting Ethiopia to develop its internal Bank’s support has focused on sharing the capacity for geothermal development through south-south risk of such upstream exploration. knowledge sharing. Technical assistance work for geothermal development, such as surface exploration, is ongoing in Tanzania, Malawi, and Uganda. ENABLING RESILIENCE Phase I of the Africa Hydromet program will benefit more than 100 million people in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries and 4 regional organizations, by building the technical, human, and financial Expanding the Program to cover contiguous capacity to provide forecasts, warnings, and value added climate countries and their regional climate centers in information services and products. a programmatic modernization plan remains the focus of efforts. Inadequate IDA support FY16-18: By the end of FY18, the Bank’s active commitments and overdependence on lateral funding from in the Africa Hydromet program stood at US$230.1 million, a Green Climate Fund, CREWS and Global Africa US$33.5 million increase over the previous year with support Environment Facility funds are stalling the Hydromet from IDA, GCF, and CREWS. Investment and technical deployment of optimum resources to meet Program assistance operations were being implemented in 19 countries. the demand from countries. The pipeline GFDRR grants to support coordination of the Africa Hydromet includes ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, program partnership convened by the Bank have remained but needs to be confirmed for IDA financing, instrumental in organizing “deep-dive” meetings of program which is a pre-requisite for co-financing from partners (World Bank, World Meteorological Organization, other sources including the Green Climate African Development Bank, United Nations Development Fund. Programme, French Development Agency, and World Food Programme). FY16-18: AFRI-RES (Africa Climate Resilient) Facility is a partnership between the World Bank and UNECA (leveraging the AUC) through a EUR5 million NDF grant, to support Africa’s capacity to systematically integrate climate change considerations into the planning and design of long-lived investments. Technical Assistance, of US$1 million provided Resource mobilization continues to be to 14 projects under preparation covers 7 sectors: Agriculture, an important focus; development and Energy, Environment, Urban, Transport, Water, and Social dissemination of concrete knowledge Protection - provided resources to integrate climate resilience AFRI-RES products within the Bank and in partnership interventions into project design, and generate broad learning, Facility with UNECA; opportunities to harness knowledge exchange, and dissemination through the program. greater synergies with PIDA (Program for Three region-wide Africa Climate Resilient Infrastructure Infrastructure Development) and development Summits have been held. The most recent (ACRIS III) which took in cooperation with AUC. place in Morocco in February 2018 attracted 250 participants and 10 high-level panels focused on resilience in the context of infrastructure, energy, agriculture, climate information, landscapes, technology, and other key areas, and provided for direct interactions between the public and private sector stakeholders to discuss climate-resilient opportunities in Africa. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxxvii Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 (continued) ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look NEW ACBP COMPONENTS FY16-18: All SCDs and CPFs completed in FY18 incorporate climate risks and vulnerabilities. To ensure Strategic continued strategic and systematic engagement for climate action, and enhance visibility and ownership, this new Support for ACBP component will seek to: NDCs • Integrate climate risks and NDCs in all SCDs and upstream analytics; • Deepen integration of NDC priorities and climate action into all CPFs; (Enabling • Link project pipelines corresponding to needs and priorities in the CPF with NDC implementation; and Resilience) • Engage in country NDC dialogue and mainstreaming of climate action based on country demand. To support the (business) climate in the financial system through a set of priority activities that will seek to mainstream climate risks into policies and regulations, standards and frameworks governing the financial sector; improve financial protection against climate-related risks and promote firm green competitiveness. Areas of focus: Green Financial Systems, • Build a better understanding of the links between climate and related environmental factors with local financial Financial sectors in Africa through research, data collection, and dissemination workshops and conduct 5 climate risk Protection assessments in financial sector by 2030; Instruments, • Develop country programs and projects that promote and integrate green elements into banking, capital and Green markets, and pension funds - develop 4-country programs by 2030; Competitiveness • Cover more countries with new or improved financial protection instruments, including insurance, risk pools, (Enabling and contingent finance, e.g. African Disaster Risk Financing (including Cat-DDO), Global Index Insurance Resilience) Facility - expanded protection coverage in 10 more countries with these instruments and tools; and • Increase green competitiveness and innovation through climate-related investments while protecting industries against climate impacts. By 2030, the objective is to develop 20 country programs that integrate green competitiveness into their growth strategies. This is a new component with overarching outcomes to support: (i) adaptation to climate change through planning for and adapting to climate and disaster impacts and reducing the burden and impact of climate- sensitive diseases; and (ii) investing in low-carbon Investments in low-carbon healthcare, which is planned, built and delivered with minimal emission of greenhouse gases through: Climate-Smart • Strengthening regional, national, and local institutional capacity for climate change adaptation and enhance Health climate change mitigation; • Strengthening the public health and environmental response to climate-sensitive diseases; and • Scaling-up investments to address climate change in the health sector and “Health in All Policies” approach (Strengthening in non-health sector. Resilience: The proposed activities will benefit all IDA/IBRD countries with active operations, with a focus on the 21 Human & Social countries with high health and habitat vulnerabilities in the short term (high priority countries), the 19 moderate Capital) countries with high health or habitat vulnerabilities in the medium term, and the remaining low-priority countries in the long-term. The HNP Africa Climate and Health strategy (2018-2030) builds on the analytical and operation experience (REDISSE, Rwanda cookstove) gained over the years to support SSA countries reduce the impact of climate change on all aspects of health, strengthen the climate resilience of their health systems, and contribute towards climate change mitigation. xxxviii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table ES.2: ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress and New Components, FY16-FY18 (continued) ACBP Progress FY16–FY18 Forward Look NEW ACBP COMPONENTS This is a new ACBP component. The key outcomes sought include the following: Reduce climate change impact Climate-Smart and support knowledge generation and capacity building in climate change by: (i) financing climate-smart Education infrastructure; (ii) integrating information on climate change issues and responses in basic education curriculum development and teacher training; and (ii) supporting skills acquisition in technical and vocational education and training and research at the tertiary level in relevant fields. FY18: the Africa Education Portfolio saw a five-fold increase in its commitments with direct climate co-benefits (Strengthening (from US$1 million in FY17 to US$5 million in FY18). Six projects were approved, supporting climate-smart Resilience: education in the region. In the technical and vocational sub-sector, the Bank has supported the shift from Human & traditional skills acquisition to more modern training that focuses on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and Social Capital) environmental preservation, and these skills are not only beneficial for building resilience but are deemed to be the drivers for economic growth in the target countries as they replace outdated markets. Mobilizing disruptive technology to leap-frog into innovation is key for Africa as it counters climate Harnessing challenges. The use of satellite data and other forms of technology (drone mapping) in building resilience Satellite to climate change and climate variability is of keen interest due to the scarcity of quality data to assess the Technology climate risks and potential impacts. The objective is to enable a more systematic uptake and application for Innovation of earth satellite technology at the project and client level to harness benefits of monitoring, access to and Climate systematic data sets, climate monitoring and forecasting, and other applications, integrated with (scarce) Resilience existing data sources. Specific action areas: (i) TA support to increase access to geospatial information and data, to support decision makers in challenges; (ii) Partnership with key agencies (e.g. IFIs, national hydrological and meteorological agencies and innovators (e.g. citizens, entrepreneurs) to derive high-level (Enabling data products supporting the monitoring and management of climate change risk in countries; and (iii) Resilience) Capacity building to raise awareness about climate resilience goals and learn about user requirements through training sessions. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | xxxix African forests provide one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, but without intervention, these national treasures are in peril due to deforestation. (Shutterstock) xl | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Part I Portfolio-Level Progress 1. Introduction Development and climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa are inextricably linked, arguably more so than in any other part of the world. Climate action cannot be divorced from the development agenda. This has been the driving force of the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP),3 the Bank’s platform for climate engagement in Africa. It was launched in December 2015 to accelerate resource mobilization for priority climate- resilient and low-carbon initiatives in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa’s race to resilience is even more urgent with the release of the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report. The region must adapt to the 0.5°C warming of the past 50 years, while planning for the intensification of impacts. The good news is that the region is not starting from zero; the bad news is that the current pace of climate action is far from sufficient. Since 2016, the ACBP has been a galvanizing platform for climate action. It must now step up its level of ambition, and the scale and pace of climate action, to manage climate risks. It needs to deliver on climate-resilient development, building on the lessons and innovations from its strong portfolio. The ACBP Third Implementation Progress and Forward Look has three parts: • Part I: Portfolio Level Progress. This section discusses key indicators of financing, corporate climate commitments on co-benefits, and mainstreaming. • Part II: Progress on ACBP Components and Introduction to New Components. For more concerted climate action, this section focuses on Health; Education; Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation (FCI); and Harnessing Satellite Technology for Innovation and Climate Resilience. • Part III: Forward Look. This section explores the strategic and systemic shifts to deepen engagement and support transformational and scaled-up action in Sub- Saharan Africa to develop climate-resilient economies, building on lessons and innovations from the ACBP portfolio. 3 See the World Bank web page “Africa Climate Business Plan,” available at http://www.worldbank.org/en/ programs/africa-climate-business-plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 1 The ACBP, conceived through an inclusive process, identified more than a dozen priority areas (business lines) for climate action and assigned them to three mutually reinforcing resilience clusters: strengthening resilience, powering resilience, and enabling resilience (figure 1.1). Figure 1.1: Clusters of Resilience in Africa Climate Business Plan Strengthening Resilience (Adaptation) Enabling Powering Resilience Resilience (Mitigation) Cluster 1—Strengthening Resilience includes select initiatives aimed at boosting the resilience of the region’s assets. Natural capital includes Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA); Climate-Resilient Landscapes (Forests and Drylands); Integrated Watershed Management (Chad, Niger, Lake Victoria, and Zambezi, and water resources more broadly); and Climate-Smart Ocean Economies. Physical capital includes Climate-Smart Cities; Coastal Resilience (West Africa and now more broadly); and Climate-Smart Transport. Human and social capital encompasses social resilience more broadly (Social Protection), and is addressing drivers and impacts of migration. In this category are two new features: Climate-Smart Health and Climate-Smart Education. Cluster 2—Powering Resilience includes opportunities for scaling up low-carbon energy and contributing to increased access to energy (a key ingredient for resilience). Solar, Hydropower, and Geothermal components explore technologies to mitigate climate change. Cluster 3—Enabling Resilience provides data, information, and decision-making tools for promoting climate-resilient development across sectors. One focus is strengthening the region’s hydrometeorological systems (e.g., the Africa Hydromet Program component). Africa Climate Resilience Investment Facility (AFRI-RES) allows for capacity enhancement and knowledge generation. New components include Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness and Innovation; 2 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Strategic Support for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); and Harnessing Satellite Technology for Innovation and Climate Resilience. Progress on Mobilizing Resources for ACBP Investments Portfolio for Resource Mobilization Significant progress has been made in FY18 toward implementing the ACBP (table 1.1). In the first semester, the World Bank’s Board approved 23 new investment operations contributing to ACBP components, with total commitment of US$2.36 billion. The second semester saw a stronger delivery: doubling commitments with 45 projects and US$5.85 billion. A total of 68 projects with Bank commitment of US$8.21 billion were approved in FY18. Average project size is US$128 million, a percentage increase of 67 percent, suggesting a larger project size compared to previous years. The total cumulative Bank funding to the ACBP since its inception now stands at about US$17 billion, exceeding the ACBP resource mobilization target set for 2020 for the Bank commitment ahead of time. The initial Bank target was set at US$5.683 billion, but was increased to US$8.483 billion with the inclusion of the transport component in April 2016. The status of Bank funding against the initial targets increased from 36 percent to 106 percent from FY16 to FY17 and doubled to more than 200 percent in FY18. International Development Association (IDA) 17 and IDA18 (which started July 1, 2017) have enabled a strong delivery of the ACBP against the 2020 targets (table 1.1). Table 1.1: World Bank Projects’ Contributions to ACBP Implementation Cumulative Cumulative Resource mobilization Status number of commitments against target against FY Semester end projects (US$, millions) (US$8.483 billion) (%) target (%) Board-approved projects December 31, 2015 3 430.0 FY16 June 30, 2016 33 3,074.6 36 December 31, 2016 53 4,360.7 FY17 June 30, 2017 108 8,779 25 103 December 31, 2017 131 11,148 FY18 June 30, 2018 176 16,997 200 Preliminary projections based on pipeline December 31, 2018 269 25,964 50 FY19 June 30, 2019 320 32,277 December 2019 331 33,994 FY20 June 30, 2020 335 34,714 75 Note: Figures for projects approved by the WBG Board of Directors up to June 30, 2108 (FY18) are final. Figures for the pipeline are estimates and subject to change. The volume of WBG financing for ACBP projects includes IDA and IBRD (no trust funds). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 3 Figure 1.2 shows a steady increase in the number of ACBP projects, reaching 176 by the end of FY18 and with a reasonably strong pipeline for FY19. It will be important to keep up the momentum in FY20. At the end of FY18, the ACBP portfolio was about 50 percent of the total portfolio in the region and set to increase in the coming years. Figure 1.2: Number of Projects and Volume of World Bank Commitments ACBP and Other (Non- ACBP) in Africa 70,000 60,000 50,000 315 Total cumulative commitment 312 291 40,000 256 (US$, millions) 30,000 20,000 177 146 126 320 331 335 10,000 269 93 176 68 108 131 0 3 33 53 Dec 31, Jun 30, Dec 31, Jun 30, Dec 31, Jun 30, #Dec 31, #Jun 30, #Dec 31, #Jun 30, 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 Projects contributing to ACBP Other projects Preliminary projects Source: World Bank. Note: Figures related to projects approved by the World Bank board of directors up to June 30, 2018, are final. Figures related to later approval dates are provisional estimates and subject to change. Data show the number of projects contributing to ACBP implementation (approved and preliminary estimates) and other or non-ACBP projects (approved and preliminary estimates). Resource Mobilization by ACBP Clusters and Components The ACBP has exceeded the total World Bank resource mobilization target set out to be achieved by 2020 (table 1.2). Between FY16 and FY18, US$16.43 billion has been mobilized for the original ACBP components through IDA, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), and Bank-administered trust funds, reflecting almost double the target of US$8.5 billion (with transport) set for 2020. The new ACBP components (Health, Education, and FCI for FY18) increase the commitment to US$19.26 billion. The preliminary pipeline for FY19 to FY20 is promising, with an indicative delivery of almost US$12.9 billion from IDA and a further US$1.4 billion from IBRD. 4 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 1.2: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 ACBP Fundraising targets (fast Status against 2020 component track) FY16–18 (approved projects) FY19–20 (preliminary pipeline) fundraising targets Cluster, type of Co-​ No. of Co-​ No. of Co-​ capital, activity Total IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing Strengthening 10,363 4,240 6,123 213 15,886 602 14,330 201 177 10,341 296 9,741 142 resilience Natural capital 116 6,861 410 5,734 71 103 5,028 293 4,457 38 IDA and total targets Climate-Smart exceeded; IBRD 3,000 1,300 1,700 60 4,109 400 3,446 44 40 3,041 263 2,598 29 Agriculture (CSA) leveraged. Co-financing low. Good pipeline. Climate-Resilient IDA target exceeded. Landscapes 1,605 355 1,250 Co-financing low. Good Drylands 17 418 — 279 11 20 398 15 372 5 pipeline. Forests 15 432 — 199 — 16 222 15 156 5 Watera 9 1,477 — 1,477 2 11 662 — 648 — IDA target exceeded; Integrated total on track (with Watershed pipeline). Co-financing Management (Niger, 2,967 890 2,077 3 206 — 206 2 8 420 — 402 — low. Chad, Zambezi, Lake Victoria) IDA target exceeded Climate-Smart 220 30 190 12 220 10 127 12 8 284 — 282 — threefold. Co-financing Ocean Economies low. Strong pipeline. Physical capital 43 5,251 192 4,884 42 38 4,048 3 4,022 8 IDA and total targets Climate-Smart Cities 1,025 550 425 15 2,039 — 2,007 — 10 531 3 507 8 exceeded; co-financing absent/not reflected. Part of the WACA Coastal Resilience funding is reflected 450 150 300 3 72 — 65 — 4 42 — 40 — (West Africa) under other ACBP components. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 5 Table 1.2: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 (continued) ACBP Fundraising targets (fast Status against 2020 component track) FY16–18 (approved projects) FY19–20 (preliminary pipeline) fundraising targets Cluster, type of Co-​ No. of Co-​ No. of Co-​ capital, activity Total IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing IDA target met, total Climate-Smart target almost met. 3,177 2,800 377 25 3,139 192 2,811 42 24 3,475 — 3,475 — Transport Co-financing low. Strong pipeline. Human and social 54 3,774 — 3,712 88 36 1,265 — 1,262 96 capital IDA and total targets exceeded four- to Social Protection 480 365 115 23 2,383 — 2,327 22 13 797 — 797 86 sixfold, respectively. Co-financing low. Addressing Drivers Low delivery, in part and Impacts of 616 600 16 5 45 — 39 — 6 132 — 131 — could be due to overlap Migration with social protection. New ACBP component. Education 15 1,010 — 1,010 46 9 220 — 219 — The approvals are for FY18 only. New ACBP component. 6 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Health 11 336 — 336 20 8 115 — 114 10 The approvals are for FY18 only. Powering resilience 5,398 1,335 4,063 30 2,266 325 1,843 7 28 2,298 325 1,963 70 IDA targets exceeded; co-financing lagging. Solar Power 3,240 750 2,490 20 1,536 1,438 7 22 1,529 25 1,503 70 With pipeline, total target on track. IDA targets exceeded, IBRD leveraged. Hydropower 1,208 85 1,123 9 663 325 338 6 769 300 460 — Co-financing absent. With pipeline, total target on track. No current pipeline, Geothermal 950 500 450 1 68 reconnaissance underway. 1,192 50 Enabling resilience 320 108 212 2 68 20 — 27 1,992 800 Table 1.2: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 (continued) ACBP Fundraising targets (fast Status against 2020 component track) FY16–18 (approved projects) FY19–20 (preliminary pipeline) fundraising targets Cluster, type of Co-​ No. of Co-​ No. of Co-​ capital, activity Total IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing Progressing. Good Africa Hydromet 50 270 108 162 2 47 20 — 4 370 — 121 pipeline. Program Harnessing Satellite New ACBP component. Technology for Innovation and Initial focus is on Climate Resilience satellite data. Finance, New ACBP component. Competitiveness, — 5 1,501 370 — The approvals are for and Innovation FY18 only. Macroeconomics, New ACBP component. Trade, and — 18 121 800 701 — The approvals are for Investment FY18 only. Africa Climate Resilient Investment 50 14 105 — Facility New ACBP component. These are not part of the totals. Reflect direct Strategic Support client engagement 8 3.11 for NDCs financed by the NDC Support Facility, bilateral partners, and other trust funds. IDA target exceeded Total without twofold. Co-financing 16,081 5,683 10,398 199 13,287 735 10,559 98 168 8,950 621 8,017 252 Transport is lagging significantly. Healthy overall pipeline. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 7 Table 1.2: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 (continued) ACBP Fundraising targets (fast Status against 2020 component track) FY16–18 (approved projects) FY19–20 (preliminary pipeline) fundraising targets Cluster, type of Co-​ No. of Co-​ No. of Co-​ capital, activity Total IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing Projects Total IBRD IDA financing IDA target exceeded, overall target on track. Total with Transport 19,258 8,483 10,775 214 16,426 927 13,370 140 192 12,425 621 11,492 252 Co-financing lagging significantly. 232 14,631 1,421 12,896 262 Total with new GPs 259 19,249 927 16,193 208 Note: Financing for a project that contributes to more than one ACBP component is split equally by the number of components it contributes to. These figures include funding for IDA, IBRD, and Bank-administered trust funds. Resource mobilization targets for Bank financing targets up to 2020 (US$, millions): IDA: US$5,863 billion (increased to US$8,483 billion with transport); climate finance: US$2,227 billion; other dev. finance: US$1,979 billion; private sector: US$3,515 billion; domestic resources: US$703 million; resource gap: US$1,974 billion; total US$16,081 billion. Shading: green indicates expectations exceeded in either IDA or total resource mobilization; beige indicates progressing; white denotes new ACBP components, with partial reporting against FY18 for education and health. a. Water includes projects that fall outside the river basins. 8 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Co-financing figures are lower than anticipated due to the difficulty of tracking resources not handled by the Bank. Delivery through financial flows directly handled by the Bank (IDA, IBRD, and some trust funds (Global Environment Facility [GEF], Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery [GFDRR], carbon finance) have been tracked through the World Bank’s reporting system. The strengthening resilience cluster continues to see strong resource mobilization, exceeding the 2020 targeted amounts with IDA/IBRD resources. Table 1.2 indicates that ACBP components (in green) on CSA, Integrated Watershed Management, Climate- Smart Cities, and Social Protection have all exceeded expectations in response to growing demand. Social Protection projects saw a fivefold increase in delivery. Powering resilience through the renewable options are on track to meet 2020 targets for Solar and Hydropower. Pipelines are modest: they can deliver timely targets yet could benefit from scaled-up co-financing. Geothermal energy does not have an indicative pipeline. Enabling resilience, as a composite of projects and knowledge generation and capacity building, strengthens delivery. Using AFRI-RES and other knowledge platforms for analytics and capacity building (Cooperation for International Waters in Africa [CIWA], TerrAfrica, Program on Forests [PROFOR], West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program [WACA]) multiplies these gains and effects change at scale (table 1.3). Table 1.3: Knowledge Platforms that Strengthen Delivery of ACBP Components Knowledge or technical assistance platform Overall objective Linkages to ACBP To strengthen the capacity of African institutions and private sector to plan, design, and implement investments in selected Component under the enabling AFRI-RESa sectors, so as to increase their resilience to climate change. resilience cluster. Project period: 2017–20. To support in-depth analysis, innovative processes, knowledge Supports the strengthening sharing, and dialogue to forest conservation and management resilience cluster, specifically the PROFORb in LICs. It has five themes: cross-sectoral; poverty; finance; Climate-Resilient Landscapes governance; and climate change. (Forests) subcomponent. To promote scaling up of sustainable land/landscape Supports the strengthening management in Sub-Saharan Africa since 2005, focusing on resilience cluster, in particular TerrAfricac knowledge management at the regional level, coalition building, Climate-Resilient Landscapes and country investments. subcomponent. To assist riparian governments in Sub-Saharan Africa in Supports the Integrated Watershed d unlocking the potential for sustainable, climate-resilient growth Management cluster, including CIWA by addressing constraints to cooperative water resources Lake Victoria, Niger River Basin, management and development. and Zambezi River Basin. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 9 Table 1.3: Knowledge Platforms that Strengthen Delivery of ACBP Components (continued) Knowledge or technical assistance platform Overall objective Linkages to ACBP To mobilize public, private, and civil society partners to support sustainable development and reduce climate risk for people living in West African coastal areas. The platform has three Supporting Coastal Resilience e pillars: knowledge, financing, and dialogue; each provides a component and sustainable blue WACA set of services designed to accelerate knowledge development economy (Climate-Smart Ocean and exchange, leverage the financing needed, and foster the Economies). political dialogues to ensure the engagement and buy-in of all stakeholders at the highest levels. Note: a. Core funding: NDF (€5.0 million). See the AFRI-RES website, https://www.ndf.fi/project/africa-climate-resilient-investment-facility-afri-res- ndf-c91. b. See the PROFOR website, https://www.profor.info/. c. The Leveraging Fund has received US$22 million from the EC, the Netherlands, and Norway. See the TerrAfrica website, www.terrafrica.org. d. See the World Bank’s CIWA website, http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/cooperation-in-international-waters-in-africa. e. See the WACA Program website, www.wacaprogram.org. Progress on Delivering Financing on Climate Co-Benefits Climate Co-Benefits for the Africa Region The World Bank tracks climate mitigation and adaptation co-benefits of the projects it finances through IDA and the IBRD. A development activity provides climate co-benefits if it promotes mitigation or adaptation. It fosters mitigation through efforts to reduce or limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or enhance GHG sequestration. It promotes adaptation if it enhances resilience capacities to reduce the vulnerability of people or natural systems to the impacts of climate change and risks related to climate variability. Climate co-benefits in Africa’s FY18 deliveries reached a historical high of 27 percent (US$4.5 billion), surpassing our agreed 22 percent target, and the 25 percent (US$2.9 billion) in FY17. The year-to-year behavior of the share of financing with climate co- benefits, however, can be variable (figure 1.3). 10 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figure 1.3: Annual Share of Financing with Climate Co-Benefits in World Bank Financing to Sub- Saharan Africa, FY15–FY18 18,000 35 33 16,000 30 14,000 27 25 25 Climate co-benefits (%) 12,000 22 Millions (US$) 22 10,000 20 18 8,000 15 15 6,000 10 4,000 8 7 5 2,000 0 0 Fiscal Year 15 Fiscal Year 16 Fiscal Year 17 Fiscal Year 18 World Bank climate co-benefits (US$, millions) Africa region climate co-benefits (US$, millions) Africa region climate World Bank climate Africa region climate co-benefits (%) co-benefits (%) co-benefit target (%) Source: World Bank. The ACBP’s share of climate co-benefits of 42 percent (US$3.4 billion) for FY18 is significantly higher than the Africa Region’s total of 27 percent (US$4.5 billion) and that of the Bank at 33 percent (US$15.7 billion). So decisive action on ACBP implementation is likely to contribute greatly toward generating large climate co-benefits. This is especially important for the new ACBP components—Health, Education, and FCI—which have had traditionally lower co-benefits. This could change with more focused attention to address climate risks through activities and outcomes set out in the new ACBP components. The share of contributions of the Global Practices (GPs) to co-benefits and their contributions to the Africa target are dictated by volume of lending and high percentage of co-benefits within the GP. Table 1.4 reveals that mitigation-based (Energy and Extractives, Transport and Digital Development, Water [hydropower]), adaptation-based (Environment and Natural Resources; Social Protection and Labor; Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience), and those with combined benefits (Agriculture) are contributing most to the co-benefits. The higher co-benefits from these GPs are attributed to the stronger link between the activities in the project and their intent to addressing climate risks and vulnerabilities. With less-direct links (e.g., Governance), the co-benefit capture is lower. There are opportunities to increase the level of co-benefits by deepening the narrative and spelling out the indirect pathways and linkages with climate patterns (e.g., on trade policies, impacts on financial systems, or disease spread and malnutrition due to changing weather patterns). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 11 Table 1.4: GPs’ Co-Benefit Contributions, FY16–FY18 Total IDA/ GP commitment’s Total IDA/ GP co-benefits’ IBRD share of total IBRD climate share of total commitment Africa Region co-benefits Africa Region IDA/IBRD (US$, millions) commitment (%) (US$, millions) co-benefits co-benefits (%) Environment and 972 3 713 9 73 Natural Resources Agriculture 3,003 8 1,342 17 45 Energy and Extractives 5,960 16 2,171 27 36 Transport and Digital 3,185 8 1,011 12 32 Development Social, Urban, Rural, 3,893 10 1,012 12 26 and Resilience Water 3,835 10 799 10 21 Social Protection 4,734 13 647 8 14 and Labor Trade and 1,222 3 85 1 7 Competitiveness Macroeconomics and 1,474 4 102 1 7 Fiscal Management Macroeconomics, 919 2 59 1 6 Trade, and Investment Health, Nutrition, 2,667 7 145 2 5 and Population Finance, Competitiveness, 924 2 21 0 2 and Innovation Education 2,551 7 17 0 1 Governance 1,661 4 8 0 0 Finance and Markets 329 1 0 0 0 Poverty and Equity 409 1 0 0 0 Total 37,737 100 8,132 100 22 Climate Co-Benefits by Cluster and Component of the ACBP All three ACBP clusters (strengthening, powering, and enabling resilience) and related ACBP components are making significant contributions on delivering climate co-benefits. Table 1.5 provides the contribution of the current portfolio up to June 30, 2018. A closer look at the current delivery of co-benefits provides insights and lessons that can inform future pipelines. Powering resilience, through a focus on renewables, provides the highest level of co- benefits, reaching as high as 52 percent, with Geothermal delivering as high as 81 percent, followed by Solar at 60 percent and Hydropower at 30 percent. Overall, the cluster delivers US$2.3 billion in financing, of which US$1.19 billion has co-benefits. While the co-benefits are well captured for mitigation, there is an opportunity through the projects to increase the co-benefits through resilience elements integrated within the projects. 12 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The strengthening resilience cluster has the largest volume of financing: US$15.89 billion, with US$4.88 billion delivering co-benefits with an overall mean of 31 percent co-benefits. This cluster is the largest, with 13 components, which explains the high volume of lending. The cluster delivers co-benefits through enhanced resilience and adaptation benefits and capacity building through investments on natural, physical, and human capital. Projects associated with natural and physical capital have slightly higher co-benefits contributions (33 percent to 35 percent, respectively) compared to human and social capital (19 percent). Human capital, which includes two new ACBP components—Health and Education—has contributed to additional capture of co-benefits (table 1.5). Meanwhile, Social Protection, which has a sizeable portfolio, contributed with about 26 percent. The enabling resilience cluster has 12 percent climate co-benefits’ financing, reflecting a mix of operations, knowledge, and technical assistance that enable better management of climate risks. The Africa Hydromet Program has a strong focus on early warning systems, hydrometeorological systems, and climate information, making it a key pillar of this cluster. Strategic Country Engagement for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Harnessing Satellite Technology for Innovation and Climate Resilience are new components that will provide more systematic engagement at the country level, and ensure that Africa benefits from technological innovations, respectively. The methodology for the capture of climate co-benefits is more definitive for mitigation and more nuanced for adaptation projects. Opportunities to address climate risks, or to reflect these more explicitly, must not be missed. This is especially necessary for development policy operations in which the pathways to address climate risks and vulnerabilities may not be obvious at the outset. Whether face to face, webex, or e-learning, Climate Change boot camps and routine and customized training have enhanced capacity to meet corporate and regional climate commitments. Recent boot camps in East and West Africa were well attended and drew participation task teams, program leaders, country program coordinators, and operational staff. Focused training on the full package of commitments—screening; co- benefits; GHG accounting; and shadow price, Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs), and Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs)—translates into increased awareness and capacities that yield more effective design and delivery of climate action within investments, including investment project financing (IPF), and Development Policy Operations (DPOs). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 13 Table 1.5: Contribution to Climate Co-Benefits by ACBP Cluster and Component, FY16–FY18 Projects in ACBP Projects in ACBP with climate co-benefits Funding Funding Funding with Number of (US$, Number of (US$, co-benefits ACBP cluster/component projects millions) projects millions) (%) Strengthening resilience 213 15,886 172 4,877 31 Natural capital 116 6,861 106 2,436 35 Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) 60 4,109 54 1,528 37 Climate-Resilient Landscapes 17 418 16 203 49 (Drylands) Climate-Resilient 15 432 14 130 30 Landscapes (Forests) Water 9 1,477 9 397 27 Integrated Watershed 3 206 3 87 42 Managementa Climate-Smart Ocean Economies 12 220 10 92 42 Physical capital 43 5,251 38 1,738 33 Climate-Smart Cities 15 2,039 14 601 29 Coastal Resilience (West Africa) 3 72 2 63 87 Climate-Smart Transport 25 3,139 22 1,074 34 Human and social capital 54 3,774 28 703 19 Social Protection 23 2,383 8 612 26 Addressing Drivers and Impacts 5 45 3 3 7 of Migration Climate-Smart Educationb 15 1,010 9 16 2 Climate-Smart Health b 11 336 8 72 22 Powering resilience 30 2,266 26 1,185 52 Solar 20 1,536 18 928 60 Hydropower 9 663 7 202 30 Geothermal 1 68 1 55 81 Enabling resilience 16 48 2 5 12 Africa Hydromet Program Harnessing Satellite Technology for 2 47 2 5 10 Innovation and Climate Resilienceb AFRI-RES Facility 14 1,05 11 n.a. n.a. Strategic Support for NDCs b 3,10 259 19,249 200 6,068 Note: Figures are for projects to be approved January 2016 through June 2018. These figures include trust-funded co-benefits. N.a. = not available. a. Areas: Niger, Chad, Zambezi, Lake Victoria. b. Denotes new ACBP components; for ongoing support to NDCs; support to NDCs here as TA is not part of the totals. 14 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Geographic Coverage of ACBP Projects The ACBP finances projects in the strengthening resilience cluster in 30 countries, including interventions in support of more than one form of capital (natural, physical, and human or social). The projects cover most of the region, with the highest number in Ethiopia (11), Tanzania (nine), Nigeria (eight), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (eight). (See map 1.1, panels a and b.) Ethiopia has a large portfolio of projects that covers various ACBP components: CSA, Climate-Smart Cities, Climate-Resilient Landscapes, Social Protection, Health, Education, and Integrated Watershed Management. These address core development issues, while addressing climate risks through targeted interventions. The powering resilience cluster is being implemented in 16 countries in the region, with the highest number in Zambia (three) and Cameroon (three). In Cameroon, the projects are improving the national electricity transmission network, and institutional capacity for development of hydroelectric resources on the Sanaga River Basin, which enhances the resilience of the populations in multiple ways. Map 1.1: Implementation of the Strengthening and Powering Resilience Clusters of the ACBP, by Country Powering resilience Strengthening resilience Strengthening resilience Powering resilience ACBP projects 1 11 IBRD 45151 | JUNE 2020 Note: The coverage was for projects from FY16–FY18, except for those that are regional or subregional in scope. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 15 Enhancing Climate Co-Benefits through Upstream Climate Screening As per the IDA17 and 18 commitments, all IDA operations must be screened for climate and disaster risks. This applies also to IBRD commitments since FY18, as called for under the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP). The climate and disaster risk screening process and supporting tools have helped scale up and support the mainstreaming of climate and disaster resilience in operations, and in meeting the co-benefit compliance. The theory of change that underpins upstream climate screening, which is mandatory for all IDA and IBRD projects, can translate into increased capture of climate co- benefits. Screening outputs provide an informed basis through which to articulate the intent of addressing climate vulnerability in the project documents and subsequent design, which can lead to explicit linkages to climate activities and co-benefits. In FY18, 106 projects were screened using the World Bank Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tools. Figure 1.4 demonstrates the usage by sector tool, and figure 1.5 shows further the additional sectors to which the menu-driven general tool was applied. The results indicate a good representation of all the sector tools: both sustainable development (agriculture, water, energy, roads) and nonsustainable development sectors (health, education). Figure 1.4: Sector Screening Total Usage Summary for ACBP Projects, FY18 Agriculture 21 20% 40% General Roads 42 12 11% 11% 2% Health 8% 8% 12 Coastal flood protection Water Energy 2 9 8 Source: World Bank. 16 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figure 1.5: Subsector Tool Usage for General Tool Screenings for ACBP Projects, FY18 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ity t ls ne r t t tio n rs en tio n ltu re IC T ta he tio n en ste en i a e m c a u e No Ot ta pm wa pm Av od i v lop u ac d m or elo lid elo Bi ve Ed qu an s p v So v d e / A ng r an de de ity ies ini rt cia l n un r ve ba m he M Ri So Ur o m Fis C Source: World Bank. Capturing Climate Co-Benefit Opportunities in Development Policy Operations Certain GPs have made progress integrating climate mitigation and adaptation considerations within Development Policy Operations (DPOs). The share of climate co-benefits against total IDA/IBRD committed amounts has increased in African DPOs, from 1 percent in FY16 to 22 percent in FY18. However, this increase is not uniform across GPs: three DPOs with the high co-benefit percentages underpin this pattern (see figure 1.6 and table 1.6). The high percentage share for Energy and Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience in FY18 reflects the result from one DPO each. Kenya’s Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat-DDO), for example, with a strong focus on managing disaster and climate risks proactively, coupled with key policy reforms to strengthen the country’s ability, received 100 percent climate co- benefits. Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management GP in FY17 (now Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment) had multiple DPOs, and the high co-benefits percentage received by the Malawi Agriculture DPO (56 percent) is moderated by other operations that have limited or no co-benefits. Thus, high lending volume DPOs with low co-benefits percentages can limit the achievement of GP targets, and the overall Africa Region co-benefits. See figure 1.6. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 17 Figure 1.6: Share of Climate Co-Benefits in Africa Region DPOs FY16 FY17 FY18 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Energy and Finance and Finance, Governance Health Macroeconomics Macroeconomics Social Social, urban, Trade and extractives markets competitiveness, nutrition and fiscal trade and protection rural, and competitiveness and innovation and population management investment and jobs resilience FY16 0 1 0 0 FY17 12 13 0 0 FY18 56 0 0 0 6 100 Source: World Bank. Table 1.6: DPOs with More than 50 Percent Co-Benefits, FY16–FY18 Total climate co-benefits Total IDA/IBRD over total IDA/IBRD commitment FY Project name Global Practice commitment (%) (US$, millions) Malawi Agriculture Support Macroeconomics and FY17 55.56 80 and Fiscal Management DPO Fiscal Management Rwanda Energy Sector FY18 Energy and Extractives 56.04 125 Development Policy Loan Kenya—Disaster Risk Social, Urban, Rural, FY18 Management Development 100 200 and Resilience Policy Credit with a Cat-DDO Looking Ahead Looking ahead at the Africa Region pipeline, task teams are working with GP teams and the Climate Change Group to maximize the potential of climate-informed DPOs. Building on recent progress and lessons learned, guidance notes, catalogues of prior actions, and FAQs have been developed to raise awareness of climate co-benefit opportunities. Further opportunities lie in mainstreaming climate considerations in a more upstream manner through systematic screening for climate risks, particularly in the adaptation context, to ensure a better capture of climate co-benefits. 18 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development A brief review of FY18 pipeline ACBP DPOs with high lending volumes reveals that a key step to enhance co-benefits lies in identifying the sectors that are directly or indirectly associated with policy reforms (or lack thereof ). Direct effects are drivers of climate impacts, such as poor agriculture policies, or weak macro policies. Indirect effects include weak policies that will result in climate impacts unfolding or cascading, such as water subsidies that may lead to less efficient management of the resource, leading to increased water stress exacerbated by climate change. Early identification of all relevant sectors, coupled with a systematic screening for climate risks and impacts, will inform prior actions for policy reforms and enhance the narrative to leverage climate co-benefit opportunities. Strategic Upstream Country Engagement Context In FY18, 10 SCDs4 and three CPFs5 were completed and presented to the Board). Strategic upstream climate considerations through SCDs, CPFs, and strengthening linkages with NDCs are called for under IDA, the CCAP, and the upcoming post-2020 corporate commitments. IDA17 and IDA18 include a climate change theme with mandates to include climate risks as part of the SCD analysis and in the CPF. IDA18 goes further and includes a policy commitment to reference a country’s (NDC) to the 2015 Paris Agreement in both the SCD and the CPF, and the Climate Action Plan calls for IBRD countries to do likewise. The upcoming corporate post-2020 climate action and targets include the theme “Strengthening Transformational Policies and Systematic NDC Support.” The Africa Region has increased upstream strategic integration of climate change risks and opportunities in SCDs and CPFs, and has enhanced linkages with NDCs, allowing increased mainstreaming of climate co-benefits. An assessment done through the ACBP focused on three aspects: • Incorporation of climate change aspects in SCDs and CPFs, including risks and vulnerabilities and reflection of countries’ NDCs. • How SCDs and CPFs have gone beyond meeting corporate commitments toward more systematic incorporation of risks and vulnerabilities and explicit links to the twin goals in SCDs and CPFs. • Comprehensive and strategic incorporation of the NDC and, to some extent, more upstream assessments of climate co-benefits for the Africa Region’s CPFs. The ACBP’s Forward Look includes a new component under enabling resilience on “Strategic Support for NDCs” to capture the multiple streams of strategic opportunities and ensure more effective upstream and country engagement to enhance the visibility, ownership, and strategic value added for climate action at all levels through systematic mainstreaming. See Appendix A for methodology. 4 FY18 SCDs: Benin, Burundi, Cabo Verde, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Zambia. 5 FY18 CPFs: Guinea, Niger, Tanzania. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 19 Key Findings Compliance with Current CCAP and IDA Commitments Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities All SCDs and CPFs completed in FY18 incorporate climate risks and vulnerabilities. SCDs reflect climate-related risks as a risk to sustainability, and largely identify them as one of the factors that impedes sustainability in terms of social (e.g., loss of lives, food security) and environmental dimensions (e.g., drought and flooding). Climate risks and vulnerabilities are primarily discussed within the sustainability chapter as well as incorporated across sector analyses, in which corresponding sectoral impacts are addressed. Vulnerabilities primarily link climate change to pressures on the environment (e.g., depletion of water resources), agriculture and livestock productivity, and physical infrastructure. To a lesser extent, corresponding social impacts, such as income fluctuations, food security, and malnutrition, are discussed. Climate change is generally not deemed as a root cause of poverty and inequality. Rather, it is considered to exacerbate them, among other factors, by compounding detrimental effects, such as environmental degradation and weak resilience to environmental shocks (e.g., natural disasters) or to specific vulnerable sociodemographic groups or segments of the population (e.g., rural households). All CPFs incorporated climate risks and vulnerabilities drawn from the SCDs and included at least one climate-related investment or Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA). Climate-related narratives also support the analysis and subsequent recommendations to continue or initiate policies, plans, and projects that address risks and vulnerabilities, and identify potential or provide additional funding. For example, drought and flooding are addressed with corresponding climate resilience in food security and CSA projects or ASAs. All CPFs include one or more climate-related investment projects or ASAs. Incorporating NDCs Both SCDs and CPFs reflect an upward trend in highlighting NDCs in country strategies. From FY16 to FY18, there were observed increases in completed SCDs and CPFs in referencing a country’s NDC. In FY18, 50 percent of the SCDs refer to the country’s NDC, to a large extent in the policy analysis of the sustainability chapter or sectoral narratives. In FY18, 100 percent of CPFs referenced NDCs, mainly as an important policy commitment in line with government strategies (table 1.7, panels a and b). Table 1.7: Incorporating NDCs into SCDs and CPFs, FY16–FY18 a. SCDs b. CPFs No. of SCDs with Total no. of No. of CPFs with Total no. FY NDC references SCDs % FY NDC references of CPFs % 2016 0 12 0 2016 0 6 0 2017 2 5 40 2017 4 7 57 2018 5* 10 50 2018 3 3 100 Note: The PCN review for four of the five FY18 IDA SCDs without NDC references took place in FY17 or earlier. There was no requirement for NDC reflection at that time (IDA17 did not require SCDs or CPFs to reflect NDCs). 20 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Going Beyond Commitments The following analysis describes the efforts that go beyond the current policy commitments to systematically embed climate change and NDCs in SCDs and CPFs, which can inform and strengthen future practice. The analysis developed a set of criteria to assess the incremental level of integration of NDCs in SCDs and CPFS, ranging from references to strategies and policies, incorporating NDCs in sectoral analysis to include references to knowledge gaps, results framework, or investments (see appendix C [table A.1] for details). Systematic Country Diagnostics SCDs provide an opportunity for more robust integration of climate change considerations in economic analyses. Climate change is regarded in all SCDs as a risk to the sustainability of achieving the Bank’s twin goals. However, some SCDs are going beyond this. In one case, the lack of tools and incentives for poor populations to manage natural resources and support climate-resilient livelihoods was identified as a binding constraint to achievement of the twin goals. In some cases, data on historical trends and economic forecasts of the impact of climate change on a country’s GDP are provided. Priorities listed in a country’s NDC can help strengthen the argument or provide the basis for recommendations of climate change–related priorities in SCDs. Some SCDs have used the priorities in the NDC to strengthen the arguments for action in priority sectors that could best contribute to adaptation and mitigation actions. In one instance, the SCD cites the country’s NDC recommendation to conduct further studies that would help estimate the cost of implementation. Table 1.8 presents a breakdown of the NDC analysis in SCDs. Table 1.8: Assessment of NDCs in SCDs, FY18 Frequency count Assessment and countries criteria (total SCDs = 10) Notes Does the SCD 5: Benin, Congo, make explicit Dem. Rep., Liberia, In compliance with IDA18 policy commitment. reference to NDCs? South Africa, Zambia Does the SCD Zambia’s SCD includes the NDC in discussions of national policies refer to the NDCs and strategies on climate change; addresses cost of implementation, in the analysis 2: Congo, Dem. using a combination of traditional and nontraditional sources of finance, on government Rep., Zambia including domestic sources. strategies and Congo, Dem. Rep.’s SCD questions reliability of the NDC as a planning policies? instrument, given uncoordinated effort in its formulation. Benin’s SCD recommends designing programs using an Adaptive Social Does the SCD Protection Approach to reduce household area vulnerability to climate incorporate shocks, which align with NDC priority sectors for investment. 2: Benin, Zambia NDCs in sectoral Zambia’s SCD uses the NDC to strengthen arguments for action and analysis? synergies in priority sectors that could best contribute to adaptation and mitigation actions. Does the SCD recognize NDC- Liberia’s SCD recommends conducting a study to estimate the cost 1: Liberia related knowledge of NDC implementation. gaps? Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 21 Here, children proudly show off their tablet. Governments need to achieve commitments to mitigate and adapt to climate change for future generations. (Shutterstock) SCD analytics provide a great opportunity to identify knowledge gaps linked to NDCs. Half of the SCDs reviewed identify climate-related knowledge gaps. Recommended knowledge activities include household-level surveys to understand the socioeconomic aspects of climate change impacts or studies on low-carbon urban planning. One SCD recommends conducting a study to estimate the cost of NDC implementation. Country Partnership Frameworks Climate change adaptation and resilience are better mainstreamed by making synergies across several pillars and objectives in the CPF. CPFs typically integrate climate change in one pillar, usually under a Natural Resource Management (NRM) or environment pillar. However, some CPFs have incorporated climate change narratives across several pillars. Some CPFs took action on climate-specific knowledge gaps recommended in the SCD through ASAs. Assessing how climate co-benefits may be maximized can only strengthen CPFs. Examples include two CPFs that explicitly indicate plans to maximize co-benefits, with one specifically leveraging a DPO as an entry point for strengthening climate resilience. Going further, one CPF includes an indicator tracking the percentage of projects providing climate co-benefits. Systematic action on NDCs can be reflected in results matrixes. One CPF reflects the NDC in the intervention logic, objectives, or ongoing activities (i.e., projects or trust funds). This CPF explicitly indicates an intention to support implementation of the NDC and includes an indicator tracking the achievement of the NDC objectives or actions related to natural resource management. Table 1.9 presents a breakdown of the NDC analysis in CPFs. 22 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 1.9: Assessment of NDCs in CPFs Frequency count countries Assessment criteria (total = 3) Notes Does the CPF make explicit 3: Tanzania, In compliance with IDA18 policy commitment. reference to the NDCs? Guinea, Niger Tanzania: CPF makes an explicit link between national development strategies and NDC to support adaptation in Does the CPF link include the focus areas of the CPF 3: Tanzania, Niger, government strategies and Niger: CPF includes a footnote on NDC’s alignment with the Guinea policies to the NDCs? Vision 2035 long-term development strategy Guinea: CPF makes an explicit link to support implementation of NDC with the PNDES Does the CPF make strategic None None cross-sectoral linkages to NDCs? Are the NDCs reflected in the NDC appears in Objective 3 discussion and intervention logic results framework or in the 1: Guinea CPF Indicator 3.2 tracks the achievement of the NDC objective/intervention logic/ indicators? objectives/actions related to natural resource management. CPF identifies the following NDC-related activities: Pipeline IDA projects: (i) Mining Governance Project—additional Does the CPF explicitly finance (FY20); (ii) Climate Change and Biodiversity Capacity indicate an intention to support Building Project (FY20); (iii) Improving Institutional Capacity and implementation of NDC and, if 1: Liberia Local so, are there any specific ASAs Governance Project (FY19) or investments mentioned? Other ASA: Sectoral Environment and Social Strategic Assessments (FY18) Opportunities and Actions for Strengthened and Transformational Country Engagement For Systematic Country Diagnostics SCDs have made strides in addressing climate vulnerabilities, climate impacts, and identifying risks to sustainability, yet there is room for further deepening these aspects in the diagnostics. SCDs could be better at (i) identifying climate change as a binding constraint to achieving the twin goals; (ii) analyzing the socioeconomic impacts of climate change; (iii) identifying opportunities for markets and jobs creation, generating broader economic growth objectives; and (iv) integrating climate change into less traditional sectors, such as human development and institutional capacity building. If information on these themes is not available, this should be more systematically identified as a knowledge gap for further exploration. There are real opportunities for SCDs to be informed and strengthened by country NDCs and their underlying analysis. NDCs contain sector priorities and analysis that could support sectoral analysis in SCDs. In addition to NDCs, other national strategies, action plans, and policy frameworks could be more explicitly cited in the sectoral analysis (e.g., National Adaptation Programmes of Action [NAPAs]) to help identify national priorities and gaps for climate action. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 23 For Country Partnership Frameworks CPFs can prioritize climate co-benefits’ assessments and leverage their potential contribution to regional targets. Incorporating climate co-benefits’ analyses and explicitly illustrating their overall contribution to sustainability or achieving the twin goals could help stimulate action at scale. Further, CPFs could show increasing ambition on mainstreaming climate change into the portfolio by illustrating increasing co-benefits targets or including comprehensive co-benefits’ assessments showing current and future mitigation and adaptation benefits from investment projects. CPFs can help implement NDCs by identifying NDC-related pipeline projects and ASAs. NDCs are mainly referenced in CPFs to provide consistency with national climate policies and strategies. However, CPFs could further capitalize on NDC priority actions that can be translated into investment projects. Conditional and unconditional mitigation and adaptation targets provided in country NDCs could be more explicitly considered in CPFs to determine where Bank programs and projects could contribute or where targeted support could be given to achieve NDC goals. In addition, CPFs could prioritize ASAs that explicitly support the implementation of NDCs. For Client NDC Engagement Client engagement with countries has progressed in several countries through policy dialogue and linkages with investments. Current and future NDC engagements should continue seeking to increase the Bank’s strategic engagement. The ACBP Forward Look includes a new component under enabling resilience through client country engagement on NDCs. This will allow for deepened strategic engagement and scale-up of investments within the Bank and client countries. This is discussed in the next section. Assessment of the Contribution of ACBP Projects to NDC Implementation Key Messages • The ACBP portfolio of projects is increasingly responsive to countries’ NDCs. An in- depth analysis of the portfolio of projects shows that the number of NDC-referenced projects doubled between FY16 (seven projects totaling US$548 million) and FY18 (14 projects totaling US$1,507 million) with total financing almost tripled. • Between FY16 and FY18, 41 projects (or 23 percent of the ACBP portfolio) make direct references to NDCs in their projects’ documents, which amount to US$4.02 billion IDA/IBRD lending (40 IPF and one Program for Results (P4R). The projects provide indirect and direct support to 30 countries to address their NDCs. Key countries with most NDC supporting projects include Senegal, Niger, and Togo. • The analysis reveals that World Bank projects are supporting the implementation of NDCs in countries, and that they are aligned with actions and targets of NDCs (17 out of 41 projects) and inclusion as part of project design (four out of 41 projects). Projects’ results framework has resulted in appropriate tracking and reporting of adaptation and mitigation actions (20 out of 41 projects). 24 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Context The ACBP portfolio of projects is responsive to countries’ NDCs and their commitments to the Paris Agreement. The Second Progress Report (World Bank 2017a) assesses the finance of the NDC-related portfolio by identifying a sectoral alignment between ABCP projects’ components and the NDC priorities of corresponding client countries. The analysis concludes that, as of October 2017, 80 percent (or 163 out of 204) of ACBP projects were aligned with sectoral priorities articulated in NDCs. Commitments for these projects totaled US$18.3 billion—83 percent of the World Bank’s total financial commitments under the ACBP (World Bank 2017a). The Second Progress Report also identifies opportunities for NDC support in transport, agriculture, cross-cutting areas (capacity building, disaster risk management, and climate services), energy, social development, land use, and forestry. In this third report, the NDC analysis of the ACBP portfolio identifies specific contributions to NDC implementation. The main objectives are to (i) take stock of the ACBP portfolio and identify the level of reference to NDC provided in project descriptions (see table 1.10); and (ii) identify good practices of NDC implementation projects. The analysis targeted 49 ACBP projects from FY16 to FY18 that made explicit reference to NDCs in their project documents (i.e., project appraisal document, project concept note, or project paper). The results were aggregated for portfolio analysis to understand sectoral and geographical coverage of NDC-referenced projects. Table 1.10: Definition of NDC Reference Levels NDC Reference Level Definition The strategic relevance of a project to NDC is explained in a project document. However, Low: strategic context the linkage between project objective/component(s) to NDC priority is not specified. In addition to indicate strategic aims to support NDC, the contribution of project objective Medium: project design or component(s) to NDC priorities and actions are explained in a project document. A project includes specific climate change mitigation/adaptation result indicators to High: results framework support deliver of an NDC target/action. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 25 NDC-Referenced Projects in ACBP Portfolios The NDC analysis reveals that 41 projects (or 23 percent of the ACBP portfolio) make direct references to NDCs in their project documents for FY16–18, which amounts to US$4.02 billion IDA/IBRD lending. This includes 40 IPFs and one P4R project. Seventeen projects include NDCs as part of their country strategic context; four include activities within their higher development objectives or components that directly support NDC implementation; and 20 integrate mitigation and adaptation indicators that support NDCs implementation into their results framework (figure 1.7). Figure 1.7: NDC-Referenced ACBP Portfolio Breakdown by NDC Reference Type, FY16–FY18 Results framework (20 projects) Project design (4 projects) Strategic context (17 projects) Source: World Bank The number of NDC-referenced projects doubled between FY16 (seven projects totaling US$548 million) and FY18 (14 projects totaling US$1,570 million) (figure 1.8). The total number of NDC-referenced projects in FY17 and FY18 are 20 and 14, respectively, which more than doubled those in FY16. The total lending of NDC-referenced projects has almost tripled from FY16 (US$548 million) to FY18 (US$1,507 million). 26 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figure 1.8: NDC-Referenced ACBP Portfolio Breakdown, FY16–FY18 120 2500 $1,904 100 $1,570 2000 80 1500 US$, millions Number 60 $548 55 1000 40 54 26 500 20 20 7 14 0 0 FY16 FY17 FY18 Number of other ACBP projects Number of NDC-related projects Total lending of NDC-related projects (US$, millions) Source: World Bank The portfolio analysis illustrates how NDCs can be referenced at various levels: strategic context, project design, and results framework (table 1.11). For example, the Transformation of Agriculture Sector Program Phase 2, which aims to promote the commercialization of agriculture value chains in Rwanda, is nested within the country’s Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA4) and the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1), both aligned with the country’s NDC. The Cameroon Transport Sector Development Project aims to strengthen transport planning and improve efficiency and safety on the Yaounde-Bamenda transport corridor. It goes one step further in supporting the development of a climate resilience and adaptation strategy and an action plan to guide Cameroon to meet its mitigation commitment as contribution to the NDC. Yet it does not include specific adaptation or mitigation indicators within its results framework. The National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project in Kenya states within its result framework how it will support the country to achieve its NDC emission reduction targets through promoting sustainable land management and climate smart agriculture practices with quantified emission reduction potentials. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 27 Table 1.11: Sample ACBP Projects that Align or Relate to NDCs within Different Levels NDC reference level Project title Reference to link with NDC in project document Rwanda: Transformation of Sectoral (or multisectoral) and institutional context: PSTA4 is aligned with national Agriculture Sector Strategic policies and strategies including Vision 2050, Rwanda’s NST 1, and relevant Program P4R Phase context subsector strategies. The NST 1 was designed to address Rwanda’s commitment 2 (P161876) to the SDGs, the NDC to agriculture, and the Paris Climate Agreement. US$100 million, FY18 Cameroon: CMR Subcomponent 1.5: Climate resilience and adaptation strategy for land transport Transport Sector will serve as the basis for policy formulation and climate change mitigation Project Development Project aspects. The study will equally establish an action plan to guide Cameroon in design (P150999) meeting its GHG emission mitigation commitment similarly expressed in the US$192 million, FY17 country’s Paris Conference on Climate Change (COP21) as part of its NDC. Results framework: This scenario-based analysis shows that NARIGP’s focus on promoting SLM and CSA practices has tremendous potential to mitigate GHG emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. The results indicate the type of SLM and CSA interventions that are most effective in supporting Kenya’s efforts in reaching its NDC mitigation goals. Agroforestry has the largest mitigation Kenya: National potential, with nearly 8 tCO2-eq per ha per year. Reducing and avoiding land Agricultural and degradation has the potential to reduce about 3 tCO2-eq/ha/year. Regarding Rural Inclusive the mitigation potential of specific activities that can support Kenya in achieving Results Growth Project its NDC, this net carbon balance analysis finds that agroforestry has the largest framework (P153349) mitigation potential, with nearly 8 tCO2-eq/ha/year. The second-largest mitigation US$200 million, potential comes from reducing and avoiding land degradation, which has a FY17 potential of about 3 tCO2-eq/ha/year. Two activities—livestock and fertilizer production—increase GHG emissions (livestock by 0.2 tCO2-eq/head/year and fertilizer production by 0.2 tCO2-eq/ha/year). While improved agronomic practices, nutrient management, and no tillage have a comparably small mitigation potential of 0.3 tCO2-eq/ha/year, these practices can enhance climate resilience and bring adaptation benefits at the household level. In terms of sectoral coverage, of the 41 NDC-referenced projects, 24 contribute to NDC implementation on CSA and nine relate to sustainable land management. Other main NDC subsectors supported by ACBP projects include sustainable forest management (five projects), and coastal zone management (four projects). This result is consistent with the results from the NDC analysis included in the Second ACBP Progress Report (World Bank 2017a). Gaps persist in terms of renewable energy, infrastructure and roads, fisheries, climate services and DRM, water management, and health. The sunburst diagram in figure 1.3 summarizes the sectoral alignment of NDC-referenced projects. Individual projects could contribute to multiple NDC subsectors. Thus, the sunburst diagram includes 61 references to subsectors among 41 projects. For instance, the Mining and Forest Governance project in the Central African Republic (P161973; IPF; US$10 million; FY18) provides support to both mining and sustainable forest management subsectors, which are included in the country’s NDC. Therefore, double- counting will occur in the tree map for ACBP projects that provide NDC support to different sectors or subsectors. 28 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development A project’s sectoral and subsectoral alignment with NDC has been determined based on the specific country’s NDC pledges. Therefore, a climate-related project might not be included if the specific sector is not addressing an NDC commitment. For example, the Ghana Commercial Agriculture Project Additional Financing (P162525; IPF; US$60 million; FY18), which is largely an irrigation development project as defined in its Project Paper, does not contribute to NDC implementation in the irrigation subsector, given that irrigation is not a subsector identified under Ghana’s NDC. However, since other projects’ activities provide direct support to the CSA subsector, the project’s NDC subsector assigned for this exercise is considered as contributing to the targets for CSA, as included in Ghana’s NDC. Figure 1.9: NDC-Referenced ACBP Portfolio Breakdown by NDC Sectors, FY16–FY18 Wate Health, 1 Urban, Min Re r Mg ing, ne 1 wa t, 1 Pl 1 an ble In nin s, fra g, st 2 ru 1 ct ur e, 3 En Tr erg Coa ans y stal po Zon rt e, 4 Agriculture Climate Smart Agriculture, 24 Sustainable ,5 nt Forest Mgt me iron Env gt le M ab ,9 nd ain Liv ,1 La ust es ecurity S Irrigati toc Crops, 2 k, 3 on, 3 Food S Source: World Bank. Note: The value represents the number of projects. Since one project may support more than one sectors or subsectors, the values are not mutually exclusive. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 29 Thirty countries were associated with the 41 NDC-referenced projects, with a total portfolio reaching US$4.02 billion. This includes four projects in Senegal, three projects each in Togo and Niger (map 1.2). Map 1.2: NDC-Referenced ACBP Projects, FY16–FY18 Number of projects 1 7 IBRD 45152 | JUNE 2020 Good Practice Case Studies of NDC Support The analysis identified many good practices from the ACBP portfolio in which NDC implementation support is provided and documented. This section provides six such case studies (table 1.12, table 1.13, and table 1.14). Besides making explicit reference to NDCs at strategic levels, these projects offer a wide range of NDC supporting actions, which are embedded throughout project objective and component, and sometimes reflected in the project’s results framework. 30 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 1.12: Ethiopia: Livestock and Fisheries Sector Development Project Ethiopia: Livestock and Fisheries Sector Development Project (P159382; IPF) Project US$153 million; approved FY18 To increase productivity and commercialization of producers and processors in selected value chains, strengthen service delivery systems in the livestock and fisheries sectors, and PDO respond promptly and effectively to an eligible crisis or emergency. NDC reference level Project description Country’s NDC The project will contribute to the Ethiopia NDC for emissions reduction. Improving crop and livestock production practices for greater food security Strategic and higher farmer incomes while reducing emissions is the first of the four context pillars that Ethiopia has identified to achieve its target, given that livestock is Ethiopia intends to estimated to contribute over 40% of national emissions. limit its net GHG Component B: Strengthening National Institutions and Programs (US$55.8 million). emissions in 2030 to The component will assist the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries (MoLF) in: 145 Mt CO2e or lower. This would constitute a Building immediate and long-term human, organizational, and institutional 255 Mt CO2e reduction capacity of the MoLF. from the projected Developing sector coordination with climate policies and to ensure that the BAU emissions in livestock sector, fully contributes to the NDC. 2030, or a 64% Improving the organizational and technical capacity of the key actors of reduction from the the livestock and fisheries sectors, including the MoLF, key public and private BAU scenario in 2030. Project services providers, producer organizations, and commodity associations. Sectors: agriculture design (livestock and soil), Subcomponent B.2: Policy, Planning, and Coordination: forestry, transport, Sub Components will support the development of a DAMS, which will build electric power, industry on the LSIPT. (including mining) and buildings (including DAMS will include the development of Tier 2 emission factors for the waste and green cities). detailed quantification of emission reductions in the livestock sector. It will be connected to the national GHG accounting system, toward the reporting of Total GHG emissions GHG emissions in the context of the NDC. of Ethiopia in 2010 were 150 Mt CO2e. The sectoral GHG emission Number of system improvements in support of better livestock and fisheries sources and their service delivery achieved. quantities were the Improvements refer to administrative, institutional, and organizational changes following: livestock that positively affect livestock and fisheries sector development. emitted methane and Results nitrous oxide totaling framework Reduction in GHG emission intensity; data source: (i) DAMS and (ii) emission 65 Mt CO2e, i.e., 42% factors generated based on observed livestock practices in the project area. of the total. Primary National Livestock and Fisheries Monitoring and Information Systems established and operational with (i) DAMS; (2) Livestock Identification and Traceability System; and (3) Dairy Performance Recording System. Note: Ethiopia’s CPF was strategically aligned to Objective 1.3: Improved agricultural productivity and commercialization with its NDC commitment on increasing resilience in agriculture. This project contributed toward achieving the CPF objective. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 31 Table 1.13: Nigeria: Erosion and Watershed Management Project Nigeria: Erosion and Watershed Management Project; AF (P164082; IPF) Project US$250 million; approved FY18 PDO To reduce vulnerability to soil erosion in targeted sub-watersheds  NDC reference level Project description Country's NDC Component 3: Climate Change Response (US$26.37 million): Nigeria is committed to reduce AF will enable the component to expand support for technical its GHG by 20% and 45% with assistance to advance preparation and initiation of activities international support. identified under Nigeria’s NDC to the Paris Agreement on Project Soil erosion: climate change-related climate change and for the issuance, deployment, and design heavier and steadier than normal monitoring of green bonds. rainfall will worsen soil erosion that Subsequent activities supported by the AF will include is already catastrophic in the south. institutional capacity building to prioritize investments Initiate a national program for identified under the NDC. IWRM at the watershed level. Land area under sustainable landscape management Review of Nigeria’s current climate practices (ha) finance landscape, support Net GHG emissions (tCO2 -eq annually) needs and the international Monitoring and reporting systems producing data on project funding landscape, along with an Results progress at federal and state levels. assessment of climate finance framework readiness and gaps. This will Development of green bond (number). Reflects realistic include possible use of funding achievement of green bond development. It will raise through the carbon market capital and investment for new and existing projects with mechanisms subject to the detailed environmentally sustainable benefits that have the capacity to provisions of the Paris Agreement. meet Nigeria’s NDC targets. 32 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 1.14: Western Africa Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement Western Africa (Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Togo) Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement (REDISSE) Phase II Project (P159040; IPF) US$147 million; approved FY17 To strengthen national and regional cross-sectoral capacity for collaborative disease surveillance and epidemic preparedness in West Africa; and in the event of an Eligible Emergency, to provide immediate and effective response to said Eligible PDO Emergency. NDC reference level Project description Countries’ NDCs Guinea Bissau, Liberia, and Togo Climate change: program contributes to climate change have explicitly included health adaptation by improving general disaster education, considerations in their (intended) NDC deployment of early warning systems (e.g., community to emission reductions. Strategic mobilization), planning for relocation efforts, and increasing Guinea Bissau: capacity strengthening context connectivity of health facilities in high-risk areas. Guinea has a direct effect on improving Bissau, Liberia, and Togo have explicitly included health decision making and planning for considerations in their (intended) NDC to emission comprehensive risk management for reductions document. public and private actors regarding events associated with climate Subcomponent 1.3: establish an early warning system for variability and change in the sectors infectious disease trends prediction (US$10.77 million): of forest, water and energy, agriculture and livestock, health, fishing, and civil Establishes early warning system, including the use of GIS protection. techniques to study infectious disease patterns and make predictions on evolution of disease outbreaks, including Liberia: health. Strengthen integrated Project design zoonoses, and identify potential high-risk areas for regional disease surveillance response systems disease outbreaks. and emergency preparedness to prevent, mitigate, and respond to Activities will support monitoring trends that occur epidemics; develop early warning in infectious diseases, such as AMR and insecticide systems for climate-driven infectious resistance, and the impact of climate change on infectious diseases. disease outbreaks in the region. Nigeria: mitigation actions with largest development benefit are reducing air pollution, indoors and outdoors, with enormous immediate health and social benefits. Strategies: strengthen disease prevention and treatment for those diseases expected to increase Results Effective surveillance of climate-dependent, vector-borne as a result of climate change; establish framework diseases with potential interspecies concern (SACIDS). early warning and health surveillance programs.Togo: priority sectors are, by order of importance: energy; agriculture; human settlements and health; water resources; coastal erosion; and land use, land-use change, and forestry. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 33 Client Support for NDCs Client engagement has progressed in several countries through policy dialogue and investment linkages with funding from the NDC Support Facility6 as well as bilateral and other (Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility [PPIAF]) funding. The areas of NDC engagement include adaptation, mitigation, and cross-cutting work at sectoral levels and mainstreaming at large. Highlights include: Côte d’Ivoire and Mali are part of a regional project, under the Adaptation of African Agriculture (AAA) to Climate Change Initiative, designed to support African countries in the operationalization of their agriculture-related NDCs, while building their capacity for NDC implementation and developing a network of expertise and knowledge exchange across the continent. • An IFC project in Côte d’Ivoire, co-funded by PPIAF, supports the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy in helping to achieve the 42 percent renewable energy target. It is a two-phased approach that unlocks private investment via targeted policies, investment climate improvements, and strategic use of innovative financing mechanisms. • Another project in Côte d’Ivoire, part of the WACA Resilience Investment Project (ResIP), supports adaptation actions to develop resilience of coastal areas against hydrometeorological risks. It will facilitate the multisectoral dialogue between authorities and key stakeholders to plan and implement investments contributing to coastal resilience. • The Mozambique project will strengthen cooperation and collaboration mechanisms as well as develop roadmaps for actions to implement priority NDC adaptation strategies and targets. The project will enable the operationalization of the National GHG Inventory to improve mitigation target setting, tracking, and reporting to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international partners, which can be a basis for results-based financing. This can enable the development of bankable actions to attract climate investments from private, international, and domestic public sources. • The São Tomé and Principe project will provide foundational support to enable decision makers in the country to better understand climate risks, facilitate the integration of resilience measures into policies and investment plans, and build targeted capacity to improve coordination across national institutions, government, and international partners. • The Rwanda project will provide technical assistance to produce quantified targets in adaptation and mitigation and evaluate priority interventions for Rwanda’s revised NDC. It will also support the development and implementation of the Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for adaptation actions, including capacity development support. Finally, it will strengthen the national capacity to access and mobilize public and private resources to implement the NDC. 6 The NDC Support Facility is a MDTF created and designed to facilitate the implementation of the NDC pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement in 2015. (See the NDC website, https://unfccc.int/ process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs; see the Paris Agreement website, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement.) Activities are implemented in close coordination with and in support of the country engagement process of the NDC Partnership, a growing global coalition of developed and developing countries and international institutions. See the NDC Partnership website, http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/ndc-support-facility, and the NDC Support Facility website, https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/ndc-support-facility. 34 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The Uganda project will support the mainstreaming of climate and disaster risk screening for projects; provide technical assistance for pipeline development through support to two key investment priorities identified in the SPCR and FIP investment plans; and support a coordination mechanism for streamlining a pipeline of climate change projects and leveraging climate financing. Through complementary parallel support, the World Bank CAPE program will also initiate the design of Climate Change Budgeting Tagging and Expenditure Tracking Tool and support its implementation. Current and future NDC engagements should seek to increase the Bank’s strategic engagement, including the support to the NDC Partnership.7 Client engagement with countries has progressed in several countries through policy dialogue and linkages with investments. The ACBP’s Forward Look includes a new component under enabling resilience: Strategic Support for NDCs. This will allow for continued and deepened strategic engagement, which will assist in mainstreaming and institutionalizing climate change and provide for opportunities for scaled-up investments within the Bank and client countries. Resilience Capacities after Three Years of Implementation Core Resilience Capacities and Pathways to Resilience Recognizing that climate drives many of the shocks and stresses that keep African households in poverty, the ACBP seeks to strengthen resilience, power resilience, and enable resilience. In the context of climate change, resilience and resilience-building refer to heightened system capacities of natural, physical, and human systems to anticipate, respond to, and recover from climate-related hazards. Finer details on who or what is exposed to what kind of hazards alter the scale, nature, and timeframe of resilience-related interventions (e.g., protecting coastal cities from rapid onset and large impact events versus those supporting subsistence farmers during repeated, low-impact events, such as precipitation shortfalls). The ACBP resilience capacity analysis8 assesses resilience-building pathways implemented or planned within ACBP projects as they build core resilience capacities9 (table 1.15). The analysis builds on work done in the Second Progress Report (World Bank 2017a), and delves deeper to understand these resilience-building pathways by assessing resilience attributes, as adapted from the World Bank Results Monitoring and Evaluation for Resilience-Building Operations Project (ReM&EP) and the Resilience Assessment Benchmarking and Impact Toolkit (RABIT), along with resilience capacities.10 7 The NDC Partnership is a coalition of countries and institutions working to mobilize support and achieve ambitious climate goals while enhancing sustainable development. See the website, http:// ndcpartnership.org/. 8 Using a framework developed through the World Bank ReM&E project. 9 According to OECD (2014), the three types of core resilience capacities include Absorptive Capacity, Adaptive Capacity, and Transformative Capacity. 10 For more details on the ReM&E framework, see the website http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/692091513937457908/Operational-guidance-for-monitoring-and-evaluation-M-E-in-climate-and-disaster- resilience-building-operations; for more details on RABIT see the website http://www.niccd.org/resilience/. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 35 Table 1.15: Description of Core Resilience Capacities and Resilience Attributes Core resilience capacities Resilience attributes that support resilience-building pathways Absorptive capacity. Ability of people, Preparedness. Ability of the community or system to manage and cope assets, and systems to prepare for, with climate change/disasters. mitigate, or prevent negative impacts Robustness. Ability of community or system to maintain its characteristics of hazards to preserve and restore and performance in the face of, or withstand, climate change/disasters. essential basic structures and functions, Protection. Extent to which community or system is protected against e.g., strengthening walls of grain storage climate change or disasters. sheds so they can withstand inclement weather, such as high winds and rain. Recovery. Ability of community or system to recover from climate/ disaster emergencies. Adaptive capacity. Ability of people, assets, and systems to adjust, modify, Rapidity. Speed at which assets can be accessed or mobilized by or change characteristics and actions to community stakeholders or system to achieve goals efficiently. moderate potential future impacts from Diversity. Ability of community or system to undertake different courses hazards so as to continue to function of actions with the resources at their disposal to mitigate risks. without major qualitative changes, Redundancy. Ability of community or system to withstand failure. e.g., establishing an irrigation system Flexibility. Ability of community or system to respond to uncertainty for farmers previously dependent on associated with climate change and disaster risk. variable rainfall to water crops. Inclusion. Extent to which the community or system provides equal access Transformative capacity. Ability to to rights, resources, and opportunities to its members. create a new system to avoid negative impacts from hazards, e.g., shifting from Integration/connectedness. Degree to which resilience is integrated agriculture to another means of income, across the system. such as livestock herding, given the Learning. Learning of the community or system to generate feedback with chronic climate and disaster risk and which to gain or create knowledge and strengthen resilience-relevant skills stress faced by the current system. and capacities. ACBP projects contribute toward resilience building via multiple pathways. The core resilience capacities are enhanced through several resilience building attributes that may be realized through project activities or interventions. Resilience attributes can contribute to building adaptive, absorptive, or transformative capacities. Table 1.16 illustrates these resilience attributes in the context of ACBP project activities. Table 1.16: Resilience Attributes Underpinning Core Resilience Capacities (Absorptive, Adaptive, and Transformative) Resilience attributes Sample activites from ACBP projects Sample ACBP project Develop physical preparedness by rebuilding unpaved roads P160505: Rural Mobility and Robustness in rural areas for all-seasons Connectivity Project Capacity building of the health workforce through training, Learning motivation, and retention to be better equipped for disease P159040: REDISSE 2 outbreaks Develop early warning systems, emergency shelters, and evacuation routes P154784: KE-Climate Smart Preparedness Establish agrometeorological centers to improve drought and Agriculture Project flood forecasts Put in place climate-resilient infrastructure to protect from P154698: Sustainable Protection recurrent damage caused by frequent floods and hurricanes Landscape Management 36 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 1.16: Resilience Attributes Underpinning Core Resilience Capacities (Absorptive, Adaptive, and Transformative) (continued) Resilience attributes Sample activites from ACBP projects Sample ACBP project Restore degraded catchments and water courses; and P153349: E-National Ag. and Recovery rehabilitation of similar existing infrastructure Rural Inclusive Growth Rapid reallocation of project proceeds in the event of future Many projects have this Rapidity natural or humanmade disaster or crisis that has caused component negative impacts Enhance alternative community livelihoods by improving P150523: TZ-Resilient Natural Diversity economic opportunities and linking them with conservation of Resource Management wildlife and landscapes negatively impacted by climate change Construct bus rapid transit (BRT) public transport that provides residents with quick access to basic infrastructure P156186: Dakar BRT Pilot Flexibility Budget and plan for contingencies to allow for action in the Project face of a disaster P157733: CM-Hydro. Dev. on Establish hydropower to serve as backup for power sites the Sanaga River TA Pr. Redundancy A road that serves as network redundancy in case a bridge P151026: Transport Sector crossing collapses in event of a disaster Improvement Project Transform target group’s (women’s) social and livelihood Inclusiona P161364: WISE Nigeria outcomes by training them to prepare for climate impacts Support coordinated and integrated community-level Integration/ surveillance systems and processes across the animal and P161163: REDISSE III connectedness human health sectors to monitor climate-exacerbated diseases  hile elements of inclusion (access to rights, resources, and opportunities) may fall under other resilience concepts as well, Note: a. W inclusion is particularly important for Africa, and on occasion have been accounted for twice in the resilience analysis. Results of Resilience Capacities Analysis The resilience capacities analysis was applied to 57 ACBP approved projects, representing 32 percent of the ACBP portfolio to date. This selection includes all projects that contribute to at least the top 90 percent climate CCA co-benefits for each ACBP component (see Appendix B for methodology). Core Resilience Capacities An assessment for core resilience capacities shows that most ACBP projects augment more than one type of resilience capacity (figure 1.10). Up to 86 percent (49) of the projects contribute to enhanced adaptive capacity, either solely, or alongside contributions to other core capacities. Many of these projects include a component for contingency emergency response, including budget provision or community-based early warning systems (such as in Madagascar’s Sustainable Landscape Management Project and in the Burundi Landscape Restoration Project). Such components mean that projects are increasing the preparedness of the systems by planning for future disasters, as well as the flexibility of the system by having a backup budget, which increases overall adaptive capacity. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 37 Cabo Verde, like all small island states and coastal nations in Africa, needs environmental and social protection from extreme shocks that are only worsening with climate change. (World Bank/Daniella Van Leggelo-Padilla) Figure 1.10: ACBP Projects’ Contribution to Building Absorptive, Adaptive, and Transformative Capacities Absorptive Capacity 7 (12.3%) 21 1 (36.8%) (1.8%) 8 (14%) 18 2 0 (31.6%) (3.5%) Adaptive Capacity Transformative Capacity Source: World Bank. Note: Total of 57 projects. Close to 65 percent (37) of the projects contribute to improvements in absorptive capacity, mostly through social safety nets via cash transfer programs, which enable them to withstand inclement weather, such as high winds and rain or crop failures. An example of this is the Mali Drylands Development Project, which, among other activities, provides timely, predictable, and regular cash transfers to low-income households to allow them to minimize disaster impacts during recurring climate crises the country faces (such as drought, desertification, floods, or climate-induced disease outbreaks). 38 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Meanwhile, fewer than 20 percent (11) of the projects contribute to building transformative capacity. This is not surprising because transformative capacity to secure more systemic shifts to address climate change is often premised on existing or enhanced adaptive and absorptive capacities, since these contribute to foundational skills and know- how. One example is Tanzania’s project on Resilient Natural Resource Management, which improves management of natural resources and tourism assets in priority areas of Southern Tanzania. It builds the three core capacities with activities, such as improved coastal and fishing infrastructure, to reduce climate impacts on coastal areas, new adaptation strategies for water management in the Usangu plains, and introduction of jobs that involve conservation of wildlife and natural resources. The project also introduces alternative livelihoods in sectors that are not affected by climate and weather impacts. These activities work together in bringing a systemic shift in the way resources are managed and conserved in Tanzania. The composite nature of capacity building is also evident when ACBP components were analyzed. Figure 1.11 presents how each ACBP component contributes to building these core resilience capacities in various combinations. Adaptive capacity is the most prevalent across the portfolio, while absorptive capacity, by itself, is notable in CSA and Climate-Smart Transport projects, in which the vulnerability of the farmers and road access sometimes requires “fixes” to ensure that communities and beneficiaries can be buffered through climate-related hazards. Because of climate change impacts, transformative capacity is more common in ACBP components that relate to natural capital, including agriculture, landscapes, and seascapes, which have vulnerable ecosystems and livelihoods. One example is the Second South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Project (SWIOFC) from the Climate-Smart Ocean Economies component, which promotes sustainable livelihoods through alternative and innovative fishing practices, pushing a systemic change in the fisheries industry. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 39 CSA possesses the most diverse set of projects in how they enhance resilience through different core capacity combinations (figure 1.13). This can be explained by the significance of the agricultural sector in African economies, and the need for it to urgently develop resilience against climate change. Projects attempt to build resilience through multiple pathways, with a range of activities, such as introducing climate-resilient crops; developing innovative methods of irrigation; promoting conservation agriculture and agroforestry to diversify farms, improve food security, and capture carbon; and training farmers on alternative livelihoods that are less reliant on the weather. Enhancing resilience through absorptive and adaptive capacities is seen in 12 of the 17 ACBP components (figure 1.11). For example, the Sustainable Landscape Management (SLM) project in Madagascar will build absorptive capacity by investing in climate-resilient infrastructure to protect farmlands and other assets from climate shocks such as floods and hurricanes. In addition, the project is building adaptive capacity through measures that minimize impacts of climate shocks and enhance the resilience of agroecosystems such as hillside stabilization through terracing, gully erosion control structures, rehabilitation of irrigation facilities, and restoration of forested landscapes. Figure 1.11: Core Resilience Capacities of Individual ACBP Components 100 90 80 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 20 10 0 n r rs n e rt lth er s m e n re e er es ia la ap si ie tio ap tio nc po ive or ra w ltu at So iti ea m ba a sc po ilie sc ec og ct ns W tc dr icu no uc H er Vi nd nd ot es a ro pr ar Ed n gr o Tr ig pr ke yd ec tio sm la la lr et ta N La ta al H ra om ed nt an e- ar ci as lie ig st at sm ce dr So m co si re lim hy to re e- Fo g g C e- sin at ar in a ric at lim sm ild es lim Af Bu dr C e- C Ad at lim C Absorptive only Adaptive only Transformative only Adaptive and absorptive Adaptive and transformative Absorptive and transformative All three Source: World Bank. 40 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Resilience Pathways Design of good interventions and activities can bolster pathways to resilience attributes and capacities. Multiple pathways can enhance core resilience capacities through activities that enhance and embed concrete resilience attributes in human, natural, or physical systems. This is illustrated here for three projects—on roads, agriculture, and health—from the ACBP portfolio with resilience pathways depicted in flow diagrams along with their project development objectives (PDOs). Case 1. The National Agriculture and Rural Inclusive Growth (NARIG) project in Kenya includes activities such as the development of technologies for farmers to practice CSA (figure 1.12). This activity allows the system to learn and adopt improved agricultural practices to better prepare for the unpredictable climate and weather variability, enhancing its adaptive capacity. Another activity includes supporting investment in alternative livelihoods so that some members of communities can shift toward more stable and less weather-reliant sources of income. This allows them to diversify their sources of income and increase preparedness for climate shocks. This increases the system’s absorptive capacity, by reducing the impact of floods and droughts on the community’s source of income, as well as its transformative capacity, as parts of the system shift to other economic sectors. The project increases the system’s adaptive capacity by constructing dams and new irrigation systems. These activities allow the system to diversify its source of water, allowing it to be better prepared in case of droughts. Figure 1.12: Kenya National Agriculture and Rural Inclusive Growth (P153349)—Resilience Pathways and Resilience Capacities PDOs: To increase agricultural productivity and profitability of targeted rural communities in selected counties; in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency, to provide immediate and effective response. Activities Attributes Core Capacities Development of Learning to gain farm mechanization or create knowledge, Adaptive technologies for CSA and strengthen skills and capacities Supporting Preparedness to investments in manage and cope alternative livelihoods Absorptive with climate change/ (other than agriculture) disasters Construction of small multipurpose dams, Diversity of a system earth pans, small-scale to mitigate risks Transformative community-managed irrigation systems, and market and storage facilities Source: World Bank. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 41 Case 2. The Niger Climate-Smart Agriculture Support Project contributes to building resilience mainly through increasing the country’s adaptive capacity to respond to droughts (figure 1.13). Activities that support small- and medium-scale irrigation improve the flexibility of farmers who previously relied solely on rainfall, thus diversifying their sources of agricultural water. Farmers adopt new farming technologies through improved access to information from private and public institutions about innovative practices. Building of small earth dams for water storage improves communities’ flexibility because they can mobilize water in times of drought. These actions increase preparedness to manage droughts in the future. Enhancing these resilience attributes contributes to the adaptive capacity, because the project’s activities contribute to mitigating the potential impacts of droughts on the agricultural system. Figure 1.13: Niger CSA Support Project (P153420)—Resilience Pathways to Resilience Capacities PDOs: To enhance adaptation to climate risks, improve agricultural productivity among the targeted communities, and in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency, to provide immediate and effective response to said eligible crisis or emergency. Activities Attributes Core Capacities Small- and Diversity of a system medium-scale Adaptive to mitigate risks irrigation Building of small Flexibility of a earth dams for system to respond water storage to uncertainty Preparedness to manage and cope with climate change/ disasters Source: World Bank. Case 3. The WACA Resilience Investment Program (ResIP) enhances resilience pathways in West African countries (figure 1.14). Building and installing surveillance systems for flood warnings increases the preparedness of the countries to respond better to flood threats and increases their adaptive capacity. Investing in and building green and gray infrastructure allows urban areas to be protected against floods, which increases the system’s absorptive capacity. Training government officials and members of institutions supports learning to better prepare for coastal-related disasters, which increases the system’s adaptive capacity. 42 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figure 1.14: WACA ResIP (P162337)—Resilience Pathways to Resilience Capacities PDO: to strengthen the resilience of targeted communities and areas in coastal Western Africa Activities Attributes Core Capacities Building capacity Preparedness to for early warning manage and cope Adaptive systems with climate change/ disasters Green and gray Protection against infrastructure climate change/ Absorptive development disasters Training local Learning to gain or government institutions create knowledge, to deal with major and strengthen skills coastal problems and capacities Source: World Bank. Resilience Capacities by ACBP Component Radial graphs in figure 1.15, panels a–f, map the frequency of resilience attributes assessed in ACBP components with a sample size of five or more projects. The accompanying comments illustrate the themes and activities commonly found in these components. While the scope of projects increases the prominence of certain attributes, attention to these attributes could help enhance capacities across multiple resilience attributes and contribute to enhanced core resilience capacities. Attributes such as preparedness (e.g., to cope and manage response to climate and disasters) scored beyond 40 percent across several ACBP components (CSA, resilient landscapes, water, transport, and cities), while social protection has a strong emphasis on recovery, focusing on the ability of the community or system to recover from climate or disaster emergencies. The theory of change that underpins resilience pathways illustrates how upstream climate screening can translate into increased resilience capacities through focused interventions and contribute to increased climate co-benefits. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 43 Figure 1.15: How the Projects Assessed Under ACBP Components Contribute to Building Resilience through Attributes ACBP components mapped to resilience attributes Comments a. CSA Diversity CSA (n=28) Redundancy 100% Flexibility 80% Project objectives usually involve ensuring that the 60% agriculture sector becomes climate-resilient. Most Inclusion 40% Integration/ often, activities include introducing and learning Connectedness 20% about crop varieties that are climate-resilient, developing innovative irrigation schemes to prepare Robustness Learning for droughts, and providing alternative livelihoods so that people diversify their means of income and Recovery Preparedness rely less on weather-sensitive income generation. These examples contribute to building adaptive and Rapidity Protection transformative capacities. b. Climate-Resilient Landscape Diversity Climate-Resilient Landscape (n=6) Redundancy 100% Flexibility 80% Project objectives are often to either protect the 60% Integration/ landscape or recover from the impacts of climate Inclusion 40% change. These impacts often include coastal, soil, and Connectedness 20% land erosion due to frequent flooding, and they often affect coastal communities. Common activities involve Robustness Learning watershed management and building and rehabilitation of flood banks to control flooding, thus strengthening Recovery Preparedness absorptive capacities. Rapidity Protection c. Water Diversity Redundancy 100% Flexibility Water (n=5) 80% Projects largely focus on improving access to all water 60% Integration/ and sanitation services. This often includes improving Inclusion 40% Connectedness 20% drainage systems in case of floods, as well as having sources of water in times of rain variability. Such Robustness Learning activities lead to an increase in the preparedness and flexibility of the system, allowing them to adapt in Recovery Preparedness times of floods and droughts. Rapidity Protection 44 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figure 1.15: How the Projects Assessed Under ACBP Components Contribute to Building Resilience through Attributes (continued) ACBP components mapped to resilience attributes Comments d. Climate-Smart Cities Diversity Climate-Smart Cities (n=7) Redundancy 100% Flexibility Project objectives often facilitate ongoing urbanization 80% 60% and making the new cities climate-smart. This involves Integration/ Inclusion the construction of new infrastructure such as robust 40% Connectedness 20% roads that can withstand floods. Such activities contribute to the absorptive capacity of the system. Robustness Learning Other activities include spatial planning to map out areas of flood risks and improving drainage systems Recovery Preparedness which enhance the preparedness of the cities, increasing their adaptive capacity. Rapidity Protection e. Transport Diversity Transport (n=14) Redundancy 100% Flexibility Some projects focus on increasing absorptive capacity 80% of the transport systems, often through increasing 60% Integration/ robustness of infrastructure to withstand floods Inclusion 40% Connectedness 20% and other disasters, with activities such as building and maintenance of roads. Some projects enhance Robustness Learning adaptive capacity through improving preparedness and learning, often by making strategy plans and Recovery Preparedness capacity building to anticipate climate-related risks in the transport system. Rapidity Protection f. Social Protection Social Protection (n=5) Diversity Redundancy 100% Flexibility Objectives often include assisting poor households 80% with their livelihoods and providing safety nets. Often, 60% Integration/ this involves training rural households to equip them Inclusion 40% to integrate climate considerations in their livelihoods. Connectedness 20% Hence, many activities involve enhancing adaptive Learning capacity, to prepare for future climate risks as well as Robustness to recover from previous disasters. Other activities enhance the transformative capacity of systems, Recovery Preparedness because they steer poor individuals away from jobs dependent on the weather through job diversification. Rapidity Protection Source: World Bank. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 45 The ACBP focuses on women and to support their empowerment within households and at work. (World Bank) Gender Considerations in the ACBP Portfolio Women and men face different vulnerabilities as well as opportunities from mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change impacts, and these provide entry points for projects to address climate risks in gender sensitive ways in their design and delivery. Gender integration is one of the corporate commitments of the Bank, with targeted outcomes set out in the Bank’s Gender Strategy FY16–23, and the WBG Gender and Climate Program FY18–23, which supports implementation of both this strategy and the World Bank Group Climate Change Action Plan. 46 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development What Outcomes Do We Seek? ACBP projects are designed for positive gender impacts in a myriad of ways, from more targeted identification of beneficiaries to efforts at institutional change. Beneficiary identification can include enhanced specification of occupational groups and workers at different levels of the value chain (such as women forest users who can gain enhanced tenure security), including with nontimber forest products in landscape-based climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Some examples include women who work in the value chain of Burkina Faso; women fish processors in coastal areas of West Africa; and women employed by the Seychelles processing plants. Most women work with the catch once landed; they face larger climate threats of warming ocean temperatures and changes in salinity and currents that affect their livelihoods. Benefit mechanisms and channels for a gender-responsive approach to climate threats in diverse sectors include direct income and livelihood considerations for women and vulnerable men and efforts to shift institutional processes over time. Zambia yields important lessons on decentralized resilience planning under the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) investment. Such shifts in norms and practices enhance economic opportunity and improved climate resilience. Women also report a strengthened voice and agency at both individual and collective levels in client countries. See box 1.1. Box 1.1 Good Practice in Gender-Responsive Design in WACA Implementation lessons inform design and practice of inclusive and gender-responsive efforts in many regions. Experience in gender-responsive disaster risk reduction and preparedness measures with women participating in ex ante planning and subproject identification at the local level, and in national-level roles in risk reduction efforts, are part of WACA across six countries. The project uses a community-driven de- velopment (CDD) approach, participatory resilience building, and gender-responsive risk mapping across its large, transboundary project that links technical and socioeconomic interventions to reduce climate risk and enhance resilience of women and men. Project indicators include assessment of beneficiary satisfac- tion with project implementation, with ratings disaggregated by sex of respondents. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 47 A boy plays in a rainstorm. Rain in Sub-Saharan Africa has already become less predictable, more variable, and extreme. (Ricardo Mayer/Shutterstock) Part II Progress on Existing ACBP Components and Introduction to New Components This section provides a summary of progress for each existing ACBP component over the past three years (2016-2018) against the activities and targets set out at inception of the plan which was launched in December 2015. It introduces the new areas of focus, which will stimulate strategic shifts to deepen engagement and support scaled-up climate action. The new ACBP components include: • Climate-Smart Health • Climate-Smart Education • Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness • Strategic Support for NDCs • Harnessing Satellite Technology for Climate Resilience These new areas support the ACBP through strengthening resilience (Climate-Smart Health, Climate-Smart Education, especially in the context of human and social capital); and enabling resilience (by greening financial systems; harnessing technology to leapfrog on climate resilience; and systemic mainstreaming through NDCs). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 49 Strengthening Resilence of Africa’s Assets—Natural Capital 2. Promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture Context Agriculture is the driving engine for inclusive and economic development in Africa, absorbing up to two-thirds of the labor force and accounting on average for a third of gross domestic product (GDP) of countries (World Bank 2015a). Between 2010 and 2016, the number of undernourished people in Sub-Saharan Africa increased by 22.6 percent, with numbers increasing from 181 million to almost 222 million (FAO et al. 2018). Three factors have been cited as affecting recent trends in food security and nutrition, namely conflict, climate, and economic slowdowns (FAO et al. 2017). Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to the effects of climate change, particularly as a consequence of reduced yields and crop failure. If unaddressed, climate change will erode Africa’s hard-earned development gains, endangering food security and poverty reduction achievements. Agriculture contributes to climate change, accounting for a quarter of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under current trends, agricultural practices are projected to account for up to 70 percent of total emissions by 2050 (WRI et al. 2015). Adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) policies, technologies, and practices— such as agroforestry, intercropping, improved nutrient management, and conservation agriculture—can reduce GHG emissions and the climate-induced stress on livestock and crops, enhance the nutrient quality of foods through diversification of crops, increase yields, and build agro-ecosystem resilience. Improved agricultural practices have the potential to generate multiplier effects that expand job opportunities in the downstream stages of the agri-food system and in the broader economy. The agriculture component of the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) aims to raise awareness and mobilize resources in support of CSA initiatives in Africa, promote adoption of evidence-based policies and institutional reinforcement for CSA, and support national and regional investment programs financially and technically to scale up CSA technologies. CSA policies and practices can benefit African countries by increasing productivity, enhancing resilience of farming systems, and lowering GHG emissions form the agricultural sector. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 2.1. 50 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 2.1: Progress of World Bank Support for CSA, FY16–18 Activity Progress Engage in advocacy, WBG Board approved 57 projects supporting CSA with cumulative commitments of awareness raising, and US$1.8 billion. These projects aim to improve the livelihoods of 6.6 million farmers and resource mobilization in increase the climate resilience and productivity of more than 2.9 million ha of land. support of key initiatives As part of IDA18 deliverables, CSIPs were prepared for five countries (Zambia, Mali, Côte in the region: d’Ivoire, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe) to identify and prioritize key policy actions, investments, and • Vision 25 × 25 in support knowledge gaps, and to build client capacity to operationalize country climate commitments. of the Malabo Declaration CSA country profiles have been completed for Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, on accelerated agricultural Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, and additional ones are transformation under preparation for Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, and • The Africa Climate-Smart Niger. The profiles document a country’s agricultural context, climate vulnerabilities, CSA Agriculture Alliance adoption, and entry points for investing in CSA at scale. • West African CSA Alliance The WBG completed 11 analytical studies covering 25 countries in East and Southern Africa, • Adoption of evidence-based on improving the resilience of agriculture and food systems to weather variability. The studies policies and institutional were supported by a US$2.3 million grant from the Global Food Price Crisis Response strengthening for CSA Trust Fund. The studies will underpin future investments in scaling up CSA, in addition to supporting strategies for improving resilient outcomes among smallholder farmers. • Financial and technical support for national Continued leadership on knowledge and advocacy: (i) report Scaling up Climate e and regional investment Agriculture though the Africa Climate Business Plan (World Bank 2018) (ii) establishment programs to scale of Program for Climate-Smart Livestock under a WBG–Germany initiative to up-scale up adoption of CSA climate-smart livestock practices across the region; (iii) training workshop in Dar es Salaam technologies and to develop project implementers’ capacity to integrate gender in CSA interventions; (iv) management options regional conference held on “Accelerating Transformation in Africa through Climate-Smart Agriculture” (Nairobi); and (v) Sixth African Green Revolution Forum was held. Regional workshop was held in Nairobi to establish the technical and institutional capacity of an early warning system to support food security in East and Southern Africa most affected by El Niño. The WBG delivered a strategic presentation on “Technologies for Agricultural Development and Climate-Smart Agriculture” at the Africa Caucus Meetings of Ministers of Finance. Forward Look Given the extreme vulnerability of African agriculture to climate change and variability, the Bank will step up resilience building to include more transformational responses to support deep, systemic, and sustainable change with the potential for large- scale impact across the region. There are two priority areas of engagement. Addressing gaps in technical assistance (TA) and capacity development for transformative CSA scale-up. There remains a substantial TA gap in some countries for scaled-up CSA programs that attract direct co-financing from governments, development agencies, and the private sector. Five areas of focus have been identified: (i) develop CSA country profiles to identify entry points for investing in CSA at scale in countries where this work has not yet been commissioned; (ii) develop CSA investment plans for prioritizing CSA strategies, policies, and investments; (iii) strengthen measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); (iv) build capacity to access climate finance; and (v) promote knowledge sharing, learning, and capacity enhancement for CSA policies, technologies, and practices. Accelerate the scaling up of CSA technologies and practices. There is a need for scaling up and replicating effective approaches and innovations to deliver productivity and climate benefits. Existing and pipeline regional projects could be highly instrumental for such scaling up. Useful criteria, such as the number of rural poor households, poverty rates, and prevalence of undernourishment, could help identify countries currently underrepresented in the CSA portfolio but for which the potential for accelerating agricultural transformation is huge. Technology selection and prioritization for the countries will be informed by geospatial capabilities of the Ag Observatory, CSA Country Profile, Investment Plan, and other TA outputs for the countries. Resource Mobilization • International Development Association (IDA) and total targets under ACBP have exceeded set goals. • International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) has been leveraged. • Good pipeline. • Continued need for resource mobilization for Forward Look. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 51 Collaborating with partners, the Bank seeks to facilitate the adoption of CSA by 25 million farmers, the establishment of CSA on 3 million hectares of farmland, the creation of improved pastoral systems in at least 15 countries, and improved capacity to implement CSA policies in at least 20 countries in Africa by 2026. As part of resources mobilization, a Program for Climate-Smart Livestock (PCSL) has recently been established through a joint initiative involving the German Development Agency (GIZ), the World Bank, and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). The program aims to complement the expanding investments in improved livestock production by fostering climate-smart livestock management practices, monitoring systems and policies across African countries, and providing guidance for scaling up lessons learned across the continent. The Program will intervene at several spatial scales and engage with various stakeholder groups in five fields of activity: (i) expanding action strategies for climate-smart livestock systems; (ii) incorporating climate change mitigation and adaptation in livestock-related policies; (iii) improving reporting on NDCs; (iv) up-scaling interventions from climate change mitigation and adaptation in livestock at the regional level; and (v) incorporating lessons learned by the Program into international discussion on agriculture and climate change. The program will further help improve production practices in the evolving livestock portfolio. Following the 2015–16 El Niño, the World Bank leveraged funds from the Global Food Price Crisis Response Trust Fund to conduct analytical studies covering 25 countries in East and Southern Africa, on enhancing climate and disaster risks preparedness and response, and improving the resilience of agriculture and food systems to weather variability. The studies will underpin future investments in scaling up CSA, in addition to supporting strategies for improving resilient outcomes among smallholder farmers. Box 2.1: Success Story of Côte d’Ivoire Cashew Value Chain Competitiveness Project The Cashew Value Chain Competitiveness Project aims to increase cashew productivity, quality, and added value, benefiting smallholder farmers and the cashew processing industry in Côte d’Ivoire. The project is financed by an IBRD loan of US$200 million, and counterpart funding of US$85.25 million. The project is an innovative mix of interventions including productivity enhancement and access of farmers to markets; development of cashew processing and storage infrastructure to meet export standards, farmers’ access to investment capital and risk management solutions and improving the regulatory framework for private sector participation. The project’s primary beneficiaries are smallholders with farms of 2–3 hectares in the poorer northern half of the country. About 225,000 cashew farmers are expected to benefit directly from project interventions. Other important project beneficiaries are cashew processors and traders, and rural youths through direct employment in the cashew value chain. The project generates substantial mitigation benefits. Ex ante analyses reveal that climate-smart interventions constitute a carbon sink of 10.2 million carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) over a 20-year period, corresponding to 510,568 tons CO2e per year, or about 0.72 tons CO2e per hectares a year. Note: For additional information, see the World Bank website https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/loans-credits/2018/04/10/ cote-divoire-cashew-value-chain-competitiveness-project 52 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development There has been progress on the adoption of promising CSA technologies in client countries. Countries adopt a range of context-specific, climate-smart technologies and practices to meet their climate change and food security goals. The CSA portfolio review indicates that improved livestock production is the most prevalent in 63 percent of the CSA project’s portfolio, followed by improved water management (57 percent), conservation agriculture (53 percent), agroforestry (47 percent), and digital agriculture (39 percent). The adoption of digital agriculture is gaining momentum. The application of digital technology in the design and delivery of integrated weather and market advisories using big data analytics is increasingly helping countries to identify conditions that may endanger food security and inform farmers’ decisions to adequately respond to, and when possible, capitalize on the changing conditions. The World Bank is leveraging the big data and geospatial capabilities of the Agricultural Intelligence Observatory of its Agriculture Global Practice in targeting climate-smart interventions in existing and pipeline projects. The Ag Observatory comprises high- resolution agrometeorological data for both analytical and operational programs. It integrates public domain agriculture monitoring databases with private sector, open access, high resolution (9 kilometer by 9 kilometer), weather data with local crop calendars, and crop models. The integrated platform delivers agriculturally relevant information based on more than 1.5 million “virtual weather stations” distributed across the earth’s agricultural land and updated four times daily. The Ag Observatory and component data platforms will assist African countries in promptly detecting early warning of farming system shocks, undertake famine threshold analyses, and initiate proactive adaptation response measures. Discussions are underway to leverage the Ag Observatory in Kenya, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Lessons Learned The adoption of CSA practices can face a variety of socioeconomic and institutional barriers. These may include the need for significant upfront expenditures on the part of poorer farmers, lack of information about the potential of improved techniques, and often limited capacity to implement the techniques. The World Bank assists country clients in overcoming the adoption constraints by providing support for specific material inputs, TA for design and delivery of critical interventions, such as biogas energy development, enhancing private sector participation in agricultural markets, promoting agricultural value chains, and training and skills development for knowledge-intensive technologies. During 2015–16, record-high temperatures, droughts, and floods resulting from one of the strongest El Niño events in recent decades adversely impacted agricultural production across East and Southern Africa. The El Niño event was the worst in 15 years; it was associated with massive crop failures in Southern Africa, floods in parts of East Africa, little or no harvests in many areas, and an extensive food security crisis. Increasing levels of concern over the mounting crisis prompted the World Bank to support countries’ responses to the crisis and document lessons from the experience. Important lessons include the need to improve food security risk management by implementing a comprehensive food security risk assessment, Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 53 reviewing contingency plans, and strengthening food security monitoring and early warning systems; reviewing policies and strengthening institutions responsible for food security risk management; and strengthening the national scalability of social protection safety net programs to more quickly reach the most vulnerable and affected populations. There is a need to step up and strengthen client engagement on policies that promote adaptation and resilience to climate shocks by mainstreaming resilience into agriculture sector policies, incentives, and investments. There is an opportunity to support more transformational responses to adaptation and resilience of the food system to climate change. A review of the CSA portfolio finds that developing adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a system to adjust, modify, or change characteristics and actions to moderate potential future impacts from hazards through incremental changes, is the primary focus of resilience building of the CSA project activities (58 percent). Boosting absorptive capacity, the ability of a system to prepare for, mitigate, or prevent negative impacts of hazards, is addressed by 26 percent of project activities, whereas increasing transformative capacity, the ability to create a fundamentally new system to avoid negative impacts from hazards, is the focus of 16 percent of activities. More needs to be done in mobilizing private sector financing for CSA. The World Bank is addressing this through efforts to engage private investors in agricultural value chains and food systems through the Maximizing Finance in Development (MFD) approach. The MFD approach is rooted in the Addis Ababa Agenda for Action, which is mobilizing additional resources to achieve ambitious development goals. The approach deploys concessional funds strategically to crowd in financing sources, noting that while the largest supply of development resources remains domestic public spending, the greatest potential for expansion lies with private finance and the engagement of business in the development process. The MFD addresses the policy distortions and lack of conducive enabling environment that hinder private sector responses in agricultural development. The World Bank works with country clients to ensure a more coordinated approach to capacity building through strengthening agricultural education, science, and technology. Given the intensity, frequency, and pace of projected climate change and the extreme vulnerability of African agriculture, the World Bank will step up resilience building to include more transformational responses to support deep, systemic, and sustainable change with the potential for large-scale impact across Africa. Four strategic lines of action have been identified, as reflected under the Forward Look (chapter 18, box 18.2). 54 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Wheat fields are irrigated at Huntley Farms in Zambia, where climate-smart agriculture has been prioritized by the government. (World Bank) 3. Creating Climate-Resilient Landscapes The resilient landscapes approach contributes to the restoration agenda focused on forests and drylands. Both are discussed in this chapter. Context — Forested Landscapes The World Bank’s Africa Forest Landscapes Program addresses deforestation and forest degradation, the second-leading anthropogenic cause of global warming. The livelihoods of 400 million people in Africa depend on forest resources, highlighting the significance of forest loss as a development issue. The program promotes sustainable forest management to mitigate climate change, transform the livelihoods of forest-dependent people, and supports vital ecosystem services. Its integrated approach fosters stakeholder planning for sustainable development across sectors. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 3.1. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 55 Table 3.1: Implementation Progress that Supports Forests and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, FY16–FY18 Activity Progress • Support development Africa’s forest program is the most active at the Bank and covers multiple country programs; it harnesses a range of of national REDD+ instruments and financing to advance the agenda: strategies and The Africa Forest Landscapes Program has 17 active country programs; funding focused on scaling up efforts in several implementation countries to improve forest sector planning and governance, piloting forest investments to address deforestation and forest arrangements (e.g., degradation, and promoting sustainable forest management. This includes funding (readiness/preparatory, investments, and legal framework, performance-based) from the BioCarbon Fund’s ISFL, the FCPF, REDD+ Readiness Fund, Carbon Fund, and FIP . capacity building, About US$101 million committed from the FCPF to 15 countries to support the development of national REDD+ governance strategies and implementation arrangements. Seven country programs (Congo, Dem. Rep., Ethiopia, Liberia, Ghana, structures, monitoring Madagascar, Mozambique, and Congo, Rep.) are well advanced and have received endorsement from the FCPF on the and verification implementation arrangements developed for REDD+. systems, stakeholder engagements Over US$30 million has been allocated from the CAFI to four countries (Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo, platforms, feedback Dem. Rep., and Congo, Rep.) for the development and implementation of national investment frameworks for REDD+, with and grievance the WBG as an implementing partner. redress mechanisms) 10 countries are preparing large-scale programs for performance-based payments for REDD+ and enhanced carbon • Fund early stocks. Carbon accumulation rates in biomass and soil increased by 20 million tCO2e over baseline: in 2018 around 8.8 investments in million incremental carbon dioxide equivalent was accumulated. Five countries (Congo, Dem. Rep., Ghana, Madagascar, demonstration Mozambique, and Congo, Rep.) have been accepted or provisionally accepted into the FCPF Carbon Fund. Two countries activities in forest are in the FCPF Carbon Fund pipeline (Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire), while two are in the ISFL pipeline (Ethiopia and landscapes Zambia). Liberia has potential bilateral support from Norway to develop such a program. One country (Congo, Dem. Rep.) is implementing its REDD+ performance-based program, following the signature of an ERPA with the FCPF Carbon Fund. • Fund performance- based payments 11 countries in the region are benefitting from FIP support. FIP is financing investment projects in six countries (Burkina for REDD+ and Faso, Congo, Dem. Rep., Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, and Congo, Rep.) with a total of US$155 million, with the enhanced carbon WBG as an implementing partner. All projects are under implementation, except for the project in the Congo, Rep., under stocks preparation. In Ghana, around 85,000 ha are under climate-smart cocoa management practices or community resource management area, and 52,000 people of which half are women, benefitted from forests, and 50,000 forest users trained. FIP is supporting four countries (Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia) with US$250,000 each to develop an investment plan (with the understanding that there are currently no resources available for their implementation). Forward Look Harness and leverage financing to continue to deepen engagement and sustain commitment and momentum, building on readiness aspects (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation [REDD+] readiness, Forest Carbon Partnership Facility [FCPF] readiness) and support to investment plans (e.g., Forest Investment Program [FIP]). This includes (i) additional African countries expected to receive endorsement from the FCPF on their implementation arrangements for REDD+ next year (Burkina Faso, Nigeria) and Togo by 2020. African countries are expected to start the implementation of large-scale REDD+ performance-based programs following acceptance into the FCPF Carbon Fund portfolio and signing of the first Emission Reductions Payment Agreement (ERPA) which will unlock the first results-based payments (Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Mozambique, Madagascar, and the Republic of Congo expected to complete full-scale implementation roll out of programs and receive the first installments of performance-based payments by 2020/21). Côte d’Ivoire will present its performance-based program for consideration to Carbon Fund. Others, such as Uganda, will pursue Emission Reduction Program development with support from additional financing. The four FIP countries that have prepared their investment plans (Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia) need investment resources to be able to implement their FIP plans. Engaging the private sector. As the convening of stakeholders has gained momentum, there is enhanced interest and more proactive engagement from the private sector to partner in these programs, particularly around commodities supply chains. An example is cocoa, which is being explored in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Other commodities are being looked into in different jurisdictions (such as Zambia, where scoping for possibilities on cotton and macadamia are in progress). The World Bank’s Forest Action Plan, adopted in 2016, provides a guiding framework, and the mid-term review currently underway is looking at the Bank’s overall progress (FY16–18) with a focus on sustainable forestry, forest-smart interventions (in nonforest sectors), climate change and resilience, rights and participation, and institutions and governance, including gender and biodiversity aspects. It will provide useful recommendations based on lessons to guide future directions. Resource Mobilization • IDA target for Climate-Resilient Landscapes (Drylands) have exceeded set goals. • IBRD has been leveraged. • Need for continued resource mobilization for Forward Look. 56 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Lessons Learned — Forested Landscapes Projects in the region have been transformational and innovative. For example, the FIP in Mozambique has a strong focus on forest governance by promoting land tenure reform and community land use planning. It was able to leverage substantial co-financing from the International Development Association (IDA)/Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) by linking forest governance and poverty reduction as a central objective of the FIP. Burkina Faso included law enforcement as a key component of the FIP by bringing community members together in consultations to express their opinions on natural resource management. Burkina Faso has benefitted from the use of technology to empower local actors to identify local challenges and create collaborative solutions. Private sector engagement has been more successful in some countries, and more challenging for others. In Ghana, a reforestation company in partnership with the African Development Bank (AfDB) aimed to catalyze further private sector involvement in large-scale sustainable and commercial teak plantations in degraded forest reserves by expanding an existing forest plantation. The Democratic Republic of Congo has also benefitted from private sector involvement in its investment plan preparation process. The preparation of jurisdictional-scale, performance-based programs for REDD+ has proven to be a complex task that takes time. See box 3.1 for an example. Areas of attention included convening and reaching agreement with stakeholders to implement these programs, as well as strengthening capacity on the technical aspects of the performance-based model. Because several countries are concluding this preparation phase, the experience can be capitalized to expedite preparation of such programs. Box 3.1 Madagascar Readiness for REDD+ Madagascar has signed an ERPA for a large-scale performance-based REDD+ program. As such, it has brought together nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), university and research teams, and government ministries to make an inclusive and nationally-owned forest monitoring system. As Mad- agascar prepares to implement REDD+, its capacity for remote sensing and analysis is an exemplary story of growing national capacity and collaboration. Historically, nongovernmental entities had the main capacity to produce Land Use/Land Cover geospatial information and conducting natural resource assessments. Through the support of the FCPF, the country has established a geomatics laboratory and forest monitoring unit to create government-owned Land Use/Land Cover data and to complete nationally designed and implemented forest inventories. The lab and forest monitoring unit are a center of excellence to train and build capacity from agencies around the government with the support of the FCPF and international experts. The unit also builds robust national datasets to produce, for example, the baseline for the performance-based REDD+ program. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 57 Context — Drylands Focus The Bank continues to support the African Resilient Landscape Initiative through country- and regional-level projects. It is mobilizing financial and technical resources from multiple sources to help design and implement country- and region-specific integrated landscape- level strategies. The Bank is supporting resilient landscapes in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and East and Southern Africa by combining geographical and socioeconomic approaches to managing land, water, and forest resources in support of food security and inclusive green growth. Connecting types of land uses (including woodlands, agro-silvo-pastoral lands, croplands, rangelands, and irrigated agricultural lands) promotes productivity, resilience, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, water regulation and quality, national security, and regional stability. Progress has been made in several areas, as summarized in table 3.2. Table 3.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Resilient Landscapes, FY16–FY18 Activity Progress Preparation and implementation: Overall, the portfolio has made good progress and is on track in key landscapes • Resilient Landscapes for through on-the-ground landscape management as well as institutional, policy, and Development Program in Eastern targeted capacity building. Africa and the Horn of Africa In the Ethiopia Sustainable Landscape Management Program, the land areas (Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South with sustainable landscape management practices are 807,300 ha and 8.8 Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda) million incremental carbon dioxide equivalent accumulated; more than 400,000 • Sustainable Agricultural Land households involved. Program in Madagascar In Sudan, more than 100,000 ha of land are under sustainable landscape • Agriculture and Natural Resources management practices; and more than 15,000 hectares are brought under enhanced Landscape Management Program biodiversity protection. in Mozambique The WBG has recently approved additional bilateral operations with Burundi, • Resilient Natural Resource Ethiopia, and Sudan. In Ethiopia, a project to improve livelihoods, climate resilience, Management for Growth carbon storage, and land productivity in vulnerable rural major watersheds, is funded Program in Tanzania by US$100 million from IDA and other sources. In Burundi, the US$30 million project will support landscape restoration and resilience in two provinces (IDA). In Sudan, a • Transforming Landscapes US$7.31 million proposal has been approved by the GEF. for Resilience and Development in Zambia Targeted institutions have benefited from training and capacity building activities to address risks and response to climate variability. Carbon accumulation rates in biomass and soil increased by 20 million tCO2e over baseline: in 2018 around 8.8 million incremental carbon dioxide equivalent was accumulated. Intervention on institutional, policy, information took place in Burundi, Congo, Dem. Rep., Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. Forward Look In addition to addressing climate change and biodiversity loss, restoration of drylands generates positive socioeconomic impacts. Resource mobilization is key, coupled with scale-up and extending the geographic reach. Changes in vegetation cover will affect 100 million hectares by 2030, of which 100,000 hectares will be restored in Burundi through the Burundi Landscape Restoration and Resilient Project (P160613). Robust pipeline focusing on refugee issues (Kenya, Northern Uganda). 58 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 3.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Resilient Landscapes, FY16–FY18 (continued) Resource Mobilization • IDA target for Climate-Resilient Landscapes (Forests) have exceeded set goals. • Need for continued resource mobilization for pipeline. • Current pipeline: » A US$12.8 million project in Ghana, funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), is under implementation, with a potential for further scale-up. » A project in Madagascar is under implementation, funded by US$78.6 million from IDA and the GEF and €25 million in joint co-financing from the African Development Bank (AfDB). » A US$40 million project in Mozambique is under implementation, funded by IDA (see box 3.2). » A US$150 million project in Tanzania is under implementation, funded by IDA. » A US$33 million integrated forest landscape project for Zambia has started implementation, funded by IDA and the GEF. Future Opportunities Several new operations should be ready for approval in 2019. The landscape restoration project in Burundi could obtain additional financing from the GEF and hence cover additional landscapes. In Malawi an operation for transforming the Shire Valley (building on an earlier operation in the Shire Basin) is at advanced preparation stage. Operations under preparation include projects in Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Nigeria, and Senegal. Similar opportunities are likely to emerge from bilateral exchanges in the upcoming months. Several broader opportunities are at the exploratory stage. The first is to respond to the Declaration made by African Ministers for the Environment participating in a forum in Niamey, Niger, in March 2018: they have called for the preparation of a large-scale program for resilient landscapes in Africa, building on public funding sources—including the Green Climate Fund (GCF), IDA, and GEF—as well as private sector financing. Other opportunities may include the scale-up of the Sahel and West Africa Program (SAWAP) in support of the Great Green Wall Initiative, which is at the advanced implementation stage in 12 countries. Another is crafting investment plans by countries based on their commitments under the Africa Forest Landscape Initiative (AFR100), the Bonn Challenge, and the Land Degradation Neutrality target setting process. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 59 Box 3.2 Supporting Integrated Landscapes in Mozambique Mozambique’s Integrated Landscape Management Portfolio (ILM) brings together several proj- ects (P160033, P149620, P161241, P131965, P164524) to improve livelihoods and manage- ment of renewable natural resources by some of the country’s most vulnerable rural communi- ties. The central focus of engagement with the Government of Mozambique is sustainable rural development, embodying the programmatic approach and responding to a topic central to the national agenda. The Bank’s support is integrated with the government’s strategic priorities, and investments are mainstreamed into their programs. This portfolio maximizes finance for develop- ment through mobilizing commercial resources for agriculture and forest value chains, leveraging private equity for protected area management, and promoting partnerships between the private sector and communities. Client orientation is at the heart of the portfolio’s approach, resulting in strong relationships with the government. A best practice is creating linkages in activities between the private sector and local communi- ties. Engaging with the private sector can reduce the dependence of community initiatives on donor finance and embed rural populations in systems that can be sustained over the long term. The project therefore promotes these partnerships, which would allow local communities to capture the project’s economic opportunities. These entrepreneurial programs include the planted forest grant scheme, agroforestry systems with some market orientation, community forest concessions, and smallholder charcoal production. Another good practice is engaging in a real-time policy dialogue at the national level. Through MozFIP, the World Bank has closely accompanied and supported reforms in the forest sector, engaging in policy dialogue, including just-in-time technical advice on measures. For additional information, see the World Bank website, http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/mozambiques-integrated- forest-and-landscape-management-portfolio. Reflections and Future Opportunities Sustainable management of dryland landscapes is critically important and requires sustained financing, targeted technical assistance (TA) support, and regional scale to generate impacts. Combining sources of financing (TA, investment project financing [IPF], results-based finance) enables cross-sectoral coordination, strengthens national capacity, and delivers results extending far beyond the immediate projects. More financing is needed to continue implementing the agenda: • Increase access to rural finance to small and medium landholders to adopt new land use practices, including conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and commercial plantations. • Provide additional financing to law enforcement to address illegal logging and poaching. • Test additional innovative mechanisms to crowd-in private investment, particularly to link medium-sized businesses to international venture capital (equity or loans), and to promote outgrower schemes. • Ensure financial sustainability of protected areas. 60 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development With TA, policies and technology, the following is needed: • Technical assistance to countries, both at national and decentralized levels. • Support to geographic information system (GIS)-based solutions for landscape planning and monitoring. • Work on strengthening rights of local communities to land and natural resources. • New technologies for tree planting To expand geographic reach, the following is needed: • Regional program around the Zambezi watershed. • Southern Africa landscape restoration, including addressing water stress (Great Green Wall). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 61 4. Promoting Integrated Watershed Management Context An emphasis on landscapes and integrated watershed management is critical for building resilience across the Africa Region. Water is the primary channel through which the impacts of climate change are experienced. Managing climate vulnerabilities along the hydrologic cycle and hydrographic boundaries is a logical approach to building resilience, and it can help avoid maladaptation. This point is highlighted through “Climate Resilience in Africa: The Role of Cooperation around Transboundary Waters” (World Bank 2017b). The Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) has laid out ambitious investment goals for strategic river basins across the Africa Region (Niger River Basin, Lake Victoria, Lake Chad, and Zambezi River Basin). However, the original focus on these water bodies and river basins is missing the broad range of ways in which water is critical to advancing the climate change agenda throughout the region. Taking our FY18 Water GP portfolio as an example, there are hundreds of millions of dollars tagged as “climate co-benefits” that do not have an obvious way of being accounted for in the ACBP. This includes projects in the water supply and sanitation sector, dams, and water resources management projects that oftentimes fall outside of the basins already captured in the ACBP. Still, the thinking continues to evolve on how best the clients on this agenda can be supported, and as such, there have been innovative approaches piloted this past year that seek to deepen or broaden our engagement on the climate agenda in Africa, such as new strategic planning and analytical approaches, methodologies and tools, and lending instruments. Efforts to increase resilience in Africa through improved groundwater management, agricultural water stewardship, and integrated urban water management, which when combined, can help connect water resources management, utilities, and irrigation to these and other river basins throughout the region. Strategic planning to systematically frame lending focused on climate resilience to push institutional thinking on investment planning at the river-basin scale. In addition to the Niger Climate Resilience Investment Plan (CRIP) process initiated around the launch of the ACBP this year similar work using a climate resilient lens has been initiated in Tanzania, that will frame investment options to identify a suite of climate-resilient investments that cut across the portfolio. This effort in Tanzania could be a model for how business is conducted in other countries across the region. Several strategic pieces on groundwater were completed, including work in Somalia and the Horn of Africa (the Sahel Irrigation Initiative Support Project [SIIP]) and the Africa Groundwater Initiative. Analysis concludes that groundwater presents tremendous potential for countries in hedging against increasing water scarcity and prolonged drought. These impacts are increasing as climate change accelerates. Client countries can mitigate these risks through lending developed through climate-resilience channels. However, risks of overexploitation are high and could lead to disastrous consequences, 62 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development so better knowledge is required. Strategic work on augmenting water supply through expanded reservoir storage is paramount in the face of increasing water security risks. Analytical work and decision support tools. New methodologies are being integrated into existing economic analyses, such as decision making under uncertainty, to develop a more robust project design process. This complements the work being done under the Decision Tree Approach, which was applied to the Mwachi Dam in Kenya. This work can be scaled up to make a difference in how projects are designed to be resilient to climate and other risks. Experimentation with lending instruments. The first World Bank investment project coming out of the Niger Basin CRIP is being designed as a Series of Projects, while other teams are considering a Multi-Phased Programmatic Approach as an instrument for any investment lending that might follow the river basin investment planning processes. These multistaged approaches are critical for doing the more longer-term, iterative, and flexible lending that is aligned with the concept of resilience building. Drought preparedness planning is key to mitigating climate change risk, but few countries have a structured way of doing this at the national or subnational level. Development Policy Operations (DPOs) could be an effective instrument for developing national drought policies that foster a more proactive approach to drought and climate change management. Although no specific targets or new commitments related to the above “new areas” have been developed as yet, this work has potential to enhance cross-sectoral synergies and cross-GP collaboration. In particular, integrated watershed management, groundwater productivity, and drought preparedness planning and management require close collaboration among the Environment, Agriculture, and Global Practice for Social, Urban and Rural Development, and Resilience (GSURR) Practices. Activities include guiding governments in crafting policy and investing in infrastructure (including nature-based infrastructure) that is proactively addressing climate change risks. Niger River Basin The Niger Basin is one of the most important transboundary basins in Africa. Its active hydrographic basin is 1.3 million square kilometers, spanning the territory of nine countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria). Its rapidly growing population of 130 million is expected to reach 180 million by 2025. Mali, Niger, and Nigeria account for almost 90 percent of the basin’s population and 70 percent of its territory. Although the area is urbanizing, 55 percent of the population in the basin is rural, except in Cameroon and Nigeria. The basin includes the capitals of Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Poverty and inequalities are widespread in the Niger Basin, and some areas are prone to violence. The Niger River system contributes to water, food, energy, job security, transport, and biodiversity, and it is a lifeline in the arid and semi-arid Sahel region. In the Niger basin countries, agriculture contributes 20 percent to 50 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 63 and roughly two-thirds of people depend on farming for their livelihoods. The mostly family fishing and agropastoral systems are labor intensive and generate significant indirect employment as well. The navigation role of the river system is important in Nigeria, but has decreased in the rest of the basin. The river is important for the energy security of the region, with an installed, partially integrated, hydropower capacity of 2,000 megawatts. Finally, the Niger hydrosystem sustains some of the most significant biodiversity areas in the world, notably the Inner and Maritime deltas in Mali and Nigeria. Many of the vulnerabilities to climate- and water-related shocks and stresses are transboundary and include (i) competing water demands; (ii) high weather and hydrological variability; and (iii) sediment and contamination loads, resulting mostly from increased population pressures on land and vegetation cover. Climate change is expected to compound these challenges. Climate and hydrological variabilities are expected to continue and may become more pronounced, increasing the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts. These natural disasters are already occurring in some countries, such as Zambia. Temperatures are likely to rise by at least 2°C, leading to greater demand for water. Most models agree that climate change will impact water resources by changing average annual precipitation in unpredictable ways.11 Recent historical trends have shown an increased variability in the on-set and length of the rainy season. Changes in rainfall patterns will seriously modify the dynamics of the river and impact water-dependent sectors, such as agriculture and hydropower. Existing coping mechanisms may be insufficient, and livelihood strategies will need to adapt. Climate change pressure increases the chance of political instability and local conflict emerging from heightened competition over scarcer natural resources. Migration of pastoralists, for example, will change as the climate changes, exacerbating fragility and conflict in the region. Building climate resilience is integral to securing livelihoods and advancing development goals. Recognizing the benefits of a coordinated approach, the Niger Basin countries— led by the NBA and supported by the Cooperation for International Waters in Africa (CIWA) program, the World Bank, and the Africa Development Bank (AfDB)— joined forces in 2015 to develop a CRIP. The Plan consists of 246 resilience-building investments, with an estimated cost of US$3.1 billion. Prioritized within existing regional and national development plans, the investments include climate insurance for farmers, gender policies to free up more productive time, anti-erosion and anti-silting measures to protect lands, rehabilitation of water storage structures to preserve supplies, and improved flood protection. These transboundary, national, and community interventions will help the region improve its ability to reduce risks and develop amid a changing climate. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 4.1. 11 The newer CMIP5 projections indicate average annual precipitation ranging from +30 percent to -10 percent. 64 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 4.1: Progress of World Bank Support for the Niger River Basin, June 2018 Activity Progress • Engagement in a The WBG and nine country counterparts identified a priority set of interventions based on consultative process the CRIP for the Niger Basin presented at COP21. The bottom-up exercise identified 123 to prepare a CRIP projects, at an estimated cost of US$1.9 billion. • Hosting of donor The WBG is finalizing preparation for lending operations that will implement important aspects roundtables of the CRIP, including the Sahel Irrigation Initiative Support Project, which was approved in • Technical activities December 2017, and the Economic and Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River (Mali) related to investment project, focusing on the Inner Delta. preparation The WBG is working closely with the clients to prepare the Regional Niger Basin Resilience Program (a SOP) to address some of the needs identified in the investment plan, with a notional US$500 million funding envelope, expected to be funded through IDA credits. The first project focuses on strengthening NBA’s capacity for coordinated water resources management, implementing key measures proposed in the on-going CIWA-financed NBA institutional assessment and financing selected CRIP investments in Niger. Subsequent SOP projects will finance CRIP investments in the basin’s other member states and may include further support to NBA. The AfDB is leading the preparation of a parallel project that will finance approximately US$250 million of CRIP investments, the Integrated Development and Climate Change Adaptation Program in the Niger Basin: PIDACC. The WBG is supervising the implementation of the Sahel Irrigation Initiative project. Forward Look The Bank will finalize the preparation of Project 1 of the Building Climate Resilience in the Niger Basin Program and continue the preparation of the following projects of the Series of Projects (SOP). Preparation will be finalized for the AfDB Integrated Development and Climate Change Adaptation Program in the Niger Basin (PIDACC). Projects include increased use of remote sensing to improve monitoring of the basin; introducing climate change impacts and consideration of resilience into planning efforts; and pushing for better knowledge and management of groundwater sources, because they are key for hedging against climate scarcity and prolonged drought, but vulnerable to overexploitation. Resource Mobilization In 2017 the NBA worked with projects and proposals to package investments targeted at specific funding sources, including the private sector. These priority projects include rehabilitation of hydraulic infrastructure, improvement of monitoring and early warning systems, restoration of watersheds, development of agroforestry, and institutional support. Future Opportunities The World Bank will continue supervising the implementation of SIIP, finalize the preparation of Project 1 of the Building Climate Resilience in the Niger Basin Program, and continue the preparation of the SOP. The PIDACC preparation will be finalized. Lake Victoria Basin Lake Victoria Basin is a densely populated region, where livelihoods are largely dependent on natural resources. More than 80 percent of the basin’s population rely on agricultural and livestock activities for their livelihoods, and more than 60 percent of the population depends on rainfed agriculture. More than 200,000 fishermen and their families depend on daily fish catches for subsistence. Poverty is pervasive in the basin, which is home to around 45 million inhabitants, with an estimated population density of 300 persons per square kilometer, much Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 65 higher than Africa’s average of 36 per square kilometer. The dense population and low levels of development drive the unsustainable use of natural resources negatively impacting the lake. Lake Victoria and its watershed are transboundary assets and are economically important to the five basin countries. Climate change and environmental stresses are mutually reinforcing. Land degradation and the loss of natural habitats exacerbate the impacts of rainfall extremes both upstream (through reduced retention of soil moisture and nutrients) and downstream (through siltation, flooding, and gully formation). In addition, climate change will increase the rate of environmental degradation in the lake: increased temperatures will accelerate eutrophication. An increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts will further drive erosion and increase sediment loads in runoff. Climate change effects on fisheries are likely to exacerbate the impacts of overfishing and pollution through stresses on key nursery grounds and changes in the thermocline (thermal layers) and nutrient cycles. Inadequate urban waste management increases the risks of, and from, flooding through blockage of storm drainage channels and polluted floodwaters. The spread of disease vectors may negatively affect poverty reduction. See table 4.2 for summary of World Bank support and project progress in the region. Table 4.2: Progress of World Bank Support for the Lake Victoria Basin, June 2018 Activity Progress • Assessment of climate risk Assessment of climate risks: completed for the Mwanza region of Tanzania, of the Lake Victoria Basin highlighting risks to communities from agriculture, water, urban and fishing • Provision of support to sustainable sectors, among others; it will inform the development of climate-resilient land and water management, investments under the LVEMP3. including CSA and sustainable LVEMP2, completed by the end of 2017, protects ecological infrastructure (forests, rural energy systems riparian buffers, wetlands) and generates benefits of environmental rehabilitation and • Protection of the ecological climate resilience: 28,118 ha of land affected by soil erosion under sustainable land infrastructure, including riparian management practices; 3,523 ha of degraded wetlands restored or rehabilitated buffer zones, wetlands, forests, by the project through over 630 CDD activities. More than 12,000 farmers have water towers, national parks, adopted soil and water conservation measures under CSA practices. and fish nursery grounds, and LVEMP2 provided new public sanitation facilities (toilets in schools and markets) monitoring of climate-related serving around 150,000 people; made major improvements in wastewater processes affecting the lake’s management in seven towns through rehabilitation, extension of sewerage ecology (water hyacinths and networks, etc. Water navigation in the lake has been improved through water water quality) hyacinth control (physical removal and biological control), which has revitalized • Promotion of resource-efficient hundreds of hectares, and installation of towers and buoys at 37 locations on production systems and green eight routes, which has improved navigation safety. and resilient livelihoods with the Under LVEMP2 a technical assistance on RECP resulted in around US$26 private sector million of private sector investment in more environmentally friendly (and energy • Improvement of hydromet and resource-saving) industrial processes across more than 100 participating services and strengthening of companies. A new €4 million NDF grant seeks to expand the successful RECP infrastructure resilience, including to engage the private sector for green growth, and leverage US$20 million of maritime safety, lake transport private investment. infrastructure, and urban storm The first phase of the LVTP in Rwanda was approved in 2017. A subsequent water management phase in Tanzania is under preparation, although it was dropped in Uganda. The program will support maritime safety on the lake, climate-resilient port infrastructure, and access to ports and lakeside communities. 66 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project–Phase 2 (LVEMP2) worked basinwide to reduce environmental pressures and improve the welfare of communities. Activities have been implemented across three main components: (a) strengthening institutional capacity for managing water and fishery resources, (b) reducing point source pollution control and prevention, and (c) improving watershed management. Future Opportunities The transport project and the LVEMP are coordinating with and complementing each other to manage climate and environmental risks to and from transport development and to support resilient rural livelihood development through both sustainable natural resources management and improved market access. Funding from UKAID (via the Corridors for Growth Trust Fund, administered by the World Bank) will support and inform the preparation of the regional transport program. Some of the funds will be used to assess climate risks to the lake, including (i) the probability of rapid changes in lake levels (and their impacts on coastal infrastructure, navigation safety, and key aquatic ecosystems); (ii) the effect on water quality; (iii) the effect on fish trade infrastructure and value chains; (iv) additional climate impacts on aquatic ecosystems, including risks from invasive species; and (v) climate vulnerabilities within the basin more broadly, particularly impacts on rural livelihoods and flood risk. The third phase of the Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP3)— for the five basin countries and a Global Environment Facility (GEF grant) (to be determined)—will scale up LVEMP2. The interventions will include: • Expansion and development of more systematic programs of sustainable land and water management which further incorporate climate resilience. • Protection of ecological infrastructure, including riparian buffer zones, wetlands, forests, water towers, national parks, and fish nursery grounds. • Partnering with the private sector to promote green industries. • Enhancing hydromet knowledge and monitoring and forecasting services for improved disaster response and infrastructure resilience (including flood risk management and navigation safety). Zambezi River Basin The Zambezi River Basin is one of the most diverse and valuable natural resources in Africa. Its waters are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. In addition to meeting the basic needs of more than 30 million people in the basin and sustaining a rich and diverse natural environment, the river plays a central role in the economies of the eight riparian countries (Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) and South Africa. It provides important environmental goods and services to the region and is essential to regional food security and hydropower production. Characterized by strong climatic variability, the river and its tributaries are subject to strong seasonal variation in the hydrological regime, with a cycle of floods and droughts that can have devastating effects on the people and economies of the region, especially the poorest members of the population. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 67 After more than 30 years with little investment in the Zambezi River Basin, the 2011 Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM Agreement) drove increasing recognition of the need among the riparian states to find cooperative solutions to the challenges of development within the basin, as identified in the 2008 Zambezi Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy (ZAMSTRAT). Recommendations are being updated through the Strategic Planning Process, led by ZAMCOM. Medium-term outcomes include: • Poverty reduced through expanded development and improved, coordinated, and sustainable water resources management. • Energy security enhanced through hydropower investments (US$10.7 billion), resulting in an additional 35,300 gigawatt-hours per year of firm energy and an additional 60,000 gigawatt-hours per year of average energy. • Agricultural production increased, enhancing regional food security through an additional 343,000 hectares and increasing irrigation to 775,000 hectares per year • Increased employment, particularly in the agricultural sector, with more than 500,000 jobs created. • Economic resilience increased, and growth benefits sustained, through reduced exposure to floods (greater than US$1 billion avoided losses on average per year) and adaptive measures to climate change. • Regional transport costs and travel times reduced through bridge investments and navigation. • Water supplies secured for urban and industrial demands (greater than 1,000 cubic megameters per year to Botswana, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). • Environmental restoration of the Zambezi Delta and improved fishery production through systematic introduction of basinwide environmental flows. • Tourism and mining contributions to GDP increased through integrated, sustainable development. • Fishery production enhanced through improved management of water resources. Limited investment in additional generation capacity over the decades has undermined economic growth prospects. The development of the Batoka Gorge Hydro Electricity Scheme (BHES) was delayed, and the cost of this delay is estimated to be in excess of US$7 billion in direct revenues through electricity sales and more than US$45 billion in relation to the cost of unserved electricity. Zambia and Zimbabwe reached an agreement in 2012, and work is underway through the World Bank, AfDB, the European Union (EU), and other partners to update feasibility studies. The World Bank program in the Zambezi Basin is aligned with the ZAMSTRAT and the objectives of the MDTF for CIWA. The objective of ZAMSTRAT is “Equitable, sustainable utilisation of water for social and environmental justice, regional integration, and economic benefit for present and future generation.” The strategy has been constructed around these four challenges: (i) integrated and coordinated water resources development; (ii) environmental management and sustainable development; (iii) adaptation to climate variability and climate change; and (iv) basinwide cooperation and integration. Progress based on CIWA support was made in several areas, as summarized in table 4.3. 68 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Mangroves provide essential support for coastal protection and management all around Africa. The ACBP has launched several mangrove rehabilitation initiatives. (World Bank) Table 4.3: Progress of World Bank Support for the Zambezi River Basin, June 2018 Activity Progress • Strategic planning. A common Development of the Strategic Plan for the Zambezi River Basin is at an investment planning framework advanced stage. The diagnostic phase, whose key outputs were the meant to attract financing planned Situation Analysis and Strategic Direction reports, are complete. Basin for cooperative management and development scenarios are under preparation, to be followed by benefit- development of international waters sharing assessments. • Data sharing and DSS development. A data and information sharing platform for the riparian states is Purpose is for basinwide planning operational. Initial system design of the information system is complete • Legislation and policy equivalence with a knowledge portal, time series, and spatial database. The analysis. To inform harmonization of integration of a DSS is near completion. A LiDAR analysis feeding into legal frameworks for transboundary a dam break model is being developed for the entire Zambezi cascade water management and under the leadership of the JOTC. development Harmonization options have been proposed, supported, and informed by • Batoka hydropower development a database of national legislation, gap analysis, and comparative analysis, preparation. Feasibility studies, ZAMCOM Agreement Comparative Assessment, and International environmental impact assessments, Comparative Assessment. Options and recommendations will be and financial transaction advisory considered in future support initiatives. studies All studies are at an advanced stage and are supplemented by additional analyses, taking into account climate variability and macroeconomic viability. Resource Mobilization Opportunities for resource mobilization have occurred through the Strategic Plan for the Zambezi River Basin. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 69 The permanent ZAMCOM Secretariat was established in 2011, with support from World Bank and Danida (see box 4.1). It leads the development of a basin-level strategic plan to be informed on a continuous basis, by an improved Zambezi Water Resources Information System (ZAMWIS). ZAMWIS will facilitate timely and informed water management decisions in the short term through forecasting and early warning systems, and in the long term through application of integrated basin models and information management systems in the planning and management of the basin’s water resources. The plan is monitored and decided upon by the riparian Council of Ministers. ZAMCOM will employ forecasting and analysis from ZAMWIS, informed by national data and development plans, in laying out its basinwide strategic plan for countries to cooperatively manage and develop shared water resources. The basin population is expected to grow from 40 million in 2010 to 70 million in 2040. For example, it is estimated that the BHES, which is part of ZAMSTRAT, is estimated to provide sufficient energy for more than 1.2 million households, substantially contributing to safeguarding development gains and supporting further economic growth. Box 4.1 Establishment of ZAMCOM and ZAMWIS Working with other development partners, such as Danida, the project has yielded positive results with the establishment and operationalization of ZAMCOM, based on annual contributions from the member states to cover the minimum functionality regarding its operations. In addition, a water resources information system (ZAMWIS) for the whole basin, which is linked to country systems, is now operational and serves as a data exchange platform complete with a knowledge portal, time series, and spatial database. Future Opportunities The Zambezi Basin is one of four priority river basins in Africa under the CIWA MDTF transboundary water program. The Zambezi program provides the foundations for a broader and more complex engagement of the World Bank with stakeholders, and supports the operationalization of ZAMCOM. This engagement can catalyze future financing opportunities in the basin through a pipeline of climate-proofed, investment projects that are being identified under the basin strategic planning process. Moreover, ongoing activities are using innovative technologies that will help identify further areas for support, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and modeling. 70 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Artisanal fishers prepare to go out to sea in Guinea on boats called “pirogues.” (World Bank/Vincent Tremeau) 5. Fostering Climate-Smart Ocean Economies Context More than 60 percent of the world’s economic output takes place near coastlines. The ocean economy in some African countries contributes as much as 27 percent of revenues and a third of export revenues. For example, an estimated US$22 billion a year is derived from the coastal and marine resources of the Southwest Indian Ocean region. Coastal tourism is the largest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa, at more than US$11 billion a year. In recognition of the oceans’ importance, in 2015, world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 at the UN General Assembly (“Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources”). Given the interconnectedness between climate change (SDG 13) and the blue economy, the proposal here seeks to foster climate-smart ocean economies in Africa. In 2014, African heads of state and governments pledged to embrace and develop the blue economy concept as a vital part of the future development to be outlined in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. In 2015, the Indian Ocean Rim Association adopted the Mauritius Blue Economy Declaration, which recognizes the interconnectivity of fisheries, infrastructure, energy, and seabed mining. The Bank supports ocean economies in Africa centers through provision of technical assistance and reimbursable advisory services; and investment project finance operations in support of pilot fisheries, and climate-resilient livelihood projects. Progress is summarized in table 5.1. See box 5.1 for a successful project in Liberia. Regional commissions in charge of fisheries support regionally coordinated investment plans for climate-resilient fisheries and coastal livelihoods. In West Africa, the Sub- Regional Fisheries Commission adopted the regional dashboard to facilitate the exchange Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 71 Table 5.1: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Smart Ocean Economies, June 2018 Activity Progress • Provision of technical The program has made good progress on key fronts of technical assistance, provision of investment project assistance and finance operations in support of sustainable fisheries management, blue economy development, climate- reimbursable advisory resilient livelihood projects, and knowledge exchange among practitioners. services The WBG made US$17.1 million in direct investments in Climate-Smart Ocean Economies. Steady progress • Provision of investment has been made against the target of US$220 million (by 2020), increasing from project finance and 9 percent in FY16, to 42 percent in FY17, and 71 percent in FY18, through direct investments and program- funding program-for- for-results operations in support of pilot fisheries and climate-resilient livelihood projects. results operations The WBG mobilized US$500 million from the NDF in support of this agenda. in support of pilot The WBG provides technical assistance to inform national investment plans in such areas as helping regional fisheries, and climate- commissions monitor fisheries and incorporate climate variations into the scientific evidence governing fishery resilient livelihood management, and it is on schedule. projects Support to key regional forums (e.g., “Financing Sustainable and Climate-Resilient Ocean Economies in Africa” held in Seychelles in 2018) and knowledge exchange continues between countries (e.g., Comoros, Madagascar, and Mozambique, and between São Tomé and Príncipe and Southwest Indian Ocean countries, as well as between West African countries). In August 2018, the WBG priced a SKr 1 billion seven-year bond, the first in the series. The bond series aims to raise at least US$3 billion, allowing investors to highlight their support for the SDGs that address water, sanitation, and marine protection by investing capital toward global public goods. Climate-Resilient Livelihoods and Ecosystems in the Coastal Zones of Tanzania are being implemented by investment projects. Highlights SWIOFish1 (P132123), SWIOFish2 (P153370), and SWIOFish3 (P155642) strengthen fisheries governance, such as compliance of SWIOFC States with the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) Conservation and Management Measures and support of shared growth in Comoros, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Seychelles. The first Blue Bond, an innovative financing tool, has been issued by the Government of Seychelles in October 2018 with the support of the WBG. The Bond will be used to support the transition to a blue economy in Seychelles. Drawing from lessons learned in other WBG fisheries projects, a new Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) was developed to improve fisheries’ governance and increase economic benefits for member countries of the Gulf of Guinea Regional Fisheries Commission (COREP), and to lead to investment operations in COREP. The Fisheries Transparency Initiative (FiTI), designed to help institutionalize transparency in the fisheries sector, was successfully completed during the course of 2018. Forward Look Client demand is growing quickly toward maritime spatial planning (MSP). The World Bank could increase technical assistance (TA), help identify opportunities, and carry out investments. Resource Mobilization • IDA target exceeded expectations threefold. • Good pipeline. • Continued need for resource mobilization. of information and the monitoring of climate change on fisheries. In East Africa, a Working Party on Collaboration and Cooperation in Tuna Fisheries is managed by the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) regional fisheries body. Since 2010, the WARFP has invested US$174 million in sustainable contributions of fisheries to wider economic growth in eight West African countries, with the proactive support of the Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission. The multiphased program’s achievements include 72 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 5.1 Launch of Improved Smoking Ovens in Liberia In Liberia, the World Bank’s West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) piloted the construction and use of four improved smoking ovens at the Robertsport landing cluster. Such ovens are more fuel-efficient than the traditional stoves used in the region, contributing to lower fuel expenses up to 50 percent. The ovens also have faster smoking times and reduced smoke emissions, decreasing negative health impacts such as respiratory problems and eye irritations. The fish products have higher quality taste and appear- ance than fish smoked traditionally, leading to higher prices up to double for certain species. The pilot attracted the interest of fish processors. Some women ride two hours by bus to get to Rob- ertsport and buy the fish, rent the ovens for overnight use, and bring the fish products back to the mar- ket in Monrovia the next day. The Liberia Artisanal Fishermen Association brought several groups of fish processors to visit the pilot site in Robertsport. The successful piloting of such ovens in Liberia and the level of demand generated from fish processors led WARFP scale up the introduction of such improved smoking technology in other countries. a drastic reduction in illegal fishing by foreigners, improved livelihoods at pilot community- led fisheries management sites, and a modernized governance framework. The program is preparing its second phase in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Senegal. Phase II will fund (i) climate-resilient landing facilities; (ii) adoption of improved smoking ovens in fishing communities of selected countries; (iii) the pilot of different fishing methods and gears to improve sea safety; and (iv) education and awareness raising in fishing communities to understand the effects of climate change on fishing patterns. The World Bank–funded Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Project (SWIOFish) has invested US$220 million since its inception. It operates in 11 countries, in coordination with the Indian Ocean Commission, the West Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission, and the IOTC. The objective is to increase the economic, social, and environmental benefits of sustainable marine fisheries to countries in the region. The capacity of the Southwest Indian Ocean Commission (SWIOFC) continues to be strengthened through the SWIOFish1 project (P132123) and the compliance of SWIOFC States with the IOTC Conservation and Management Measures is increased through SWIOFish2 (P153370). With support from SWIOFish1, the Government of Mozambique developed and approved several legal and policy instruments related to its blue economy that consider climate change adaptation and mitigation aspects, in particular the Policy and Strategy of the Sea. With support from the Artisanal Fisheries and Climate Change Project, six Mozambican coastal communities developed alternative livelihood initiatives to be implemented with local co-management plans, which will be finalized in 2018. Kenya has declared its blue economy as a priority frontier, expected to help increase livelihood opportunities and levels of income, nutrition, and food security. The Kenya Marine Fisheries and Socio-Economic Development is a US$100 million project under preparation that focuses on improving governance and management of fisheries, enabling sustainable investment in marine fisheries and aquaculture, and strengthening Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 73 Children in Saint-Louis, Senegal, play with the kite on the beach. In Saint-Louis, social protection and coastal protection and resilience go hand in hand. (World Bank/Vincent Tremeau) coastal livelihoods. The project also supports short- and long-term climate change risk mitigation measures, including climate-smart infrastructure. The expected Board approval is expected in FY19 Q3, while consultancies are being procured to (i) identify potential impacts of climate change on Kenya’s coastal communities and ecosystems, including marine fisheries; and (ii) develop a set of short- and long-term risk mitigation measures, including at the community level, to be implemented under the project. The Bank and the Government of Mauritius launched the report The Ocean Economy in Mauritius: Making it Happen, Making It Last (Cervigni and Scandizzo 2017). The report assesses the potential of fisheries and aquaculture, marine information and communications technology, renewable energy, and ports. It outlines a three- to five-year action plan that identifies possible investment scenarios in priority sectors. Future Opportunities Substantial opportunities exist for further development in 2018. The body of evidence and our understanding of the impacts of climate change on fisheries are fast evolving, yet the effects are underquantified and confined to the academic and scientific domains. Policy makers, donors, and other stakeholders urgently need additional analysis, evidence-based information, and, above all, prioritized, cost-effective options for solutions to guide investments better in line with climate change adaptation and mitigation, thus maximizing prospects for development and poverty reduction. For such reasons, the Bank has put forth a two-phased report investigating the impact of climate change on fisheries to generate evidence-based analysis and a prioritized set of options to guide investments. Therefore, policies can be aligned with cost- effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, while consequently maximizing the prospects for development and poverty alleviation. Map 5.1, panels a and b, show the projected impact per countries using one of the models (World Bank 2019). The report launch in December 2019 will be accompanied by technical discussions with academia and scientists on the best way to leverage its results for the development of Part II, 74 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Map 5.1: Change in Maximum Catch Potential (%) Under (a) Low and (b) High Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios by 2050 Using the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model, 2019 a. Low GHG emissions b. High GHG emissions Morocco Morocco Morocco Morocco (Central) (Central) (Central) (Central) Cabo Verde MauritaniaCabo Verde Mauritania Cabo Verde MauritaniaCabo Verde Mauritania Senegal Senegal Senegal Senegal Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau The Gambia The Gambia The Gambia The Gambia Togo Togo Togo Togo Guinea Guinea Benin Benin Guinea Guinea Benin Benin Sierra Leone Sierra Leone Nigeria CameroonNigeria Cameroon Sierra Leone Sierra Leone Nigeria CameroonNigeria Cameroon Ghana Ghana Somalia Somalia Ghana Ghana Somalia Somalia Liberia Liberia Liberia Liberia Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Gabon São Tomé and Príncipe São Tomé and Príncipe Gabon Kenya Kenya Gabon São Tomé and Príncipe São Tomé and Príncipe Gabon Kenya Kenya Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea Tanzania Seychelles Tanzania Seychelles Tanzania Seychelles Tanzania Seychelles Republic of Congo Republic of Congo Comoros Comoros Republic of Congo Republic of Congo Comoros Comoros Democratic Republic of Congo Democratic Republic of Congo Angola Angola Mayotte Mayotte Democratic Republic of Congo Democratic Republic of Congo Angola Angola Mayotte Mayotte (France) (France) (France) (France) Mozambique Mozambique Mauritius Mauritius Mozambique Mozambique Mauritius Mauritius Namibia Namibia Namibia Namibia Madagascar La Réunion Madagascar La Réunion Madagascar La Réunion Madagascar La Réunion (France) (France) (France) (France) RCP 2.6 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 in 2050in MCP (%) Change in MCP (%)Change in 2050 South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Change in MCP (%)Change in 2050in MCP (%) in 2050 South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa -25 to -20 -25 to -20 (Atlantic Coast) (Atlantic Coast) (Indian Ocean Coast) (Indian Ocean Coast) -22 to -20 -22 to -20 (Atlantic Coast) (Atlantic Coast) (Indian Ocean Coast) (Indian Ocean Coast) -20 to -15 -20 to -15 -20 to -15 -20 to -15 -15 to -10 -15 to -10 -15 to -10 -15 to -10 -10 to -5 -10 to -5 -10 to -5 -10 to -5 -5 to 3 -5 to 3 IBRD 45153 | IBRD 45153 | -5 to 5 -5 to 5 JUNE 2020 JUNE 2020 Source: World Bank, 2019b Note: Panels show either low or high GHG emission scenarios in the 2050s (mid-term) using Mizer. which will focus on developing a set of prioritized, cost-effective investment strategies (e.g., ranking options to maintain or enhance current fishery outcomes in the face of projected climate change, by cost) to better target development and poverty reduction goals. The can inform the development of a regional program in the fisheries sector for the COREP area, responding to the COREP Council of Ministers’ interests. The successful piloting of four improved smoking ovens at the Robertsport landing cluster in Liberia and the level of demand generated within fish processors suggest scope for a scale-up in the other West Africa coastal countries that are part of WARFP. In Mozambique, the First Artisanal Fisheries and Climate Change Project supported the development of sustainable income-generation projects, which are expected to improve the overall socioeconomic and environmental resilience of targeted communities, including resilience to climate change-related risks. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 75 Strengthening Resilience of Africa’s Assets—Physical Capital 6. Developing Climate-Smart Cities Context The World Bank is supporting climate- and disaster-resilient development in selected Sub-Saharan African cities through policy dialogue, technical assistance, and investment financing. Stronger capacity for integrated risk management is expected to benefit more than 100 cities, including multiple small- and medium-sized cities, reaching about 70 million people. Efforts have moved beyond technical assistance toward dedicated financing in three areas: (i) capacity building; (ii) resilient infrastructure, buildings, and services; and (ii) partnerships and city networking for knowledge sharing. Current urban resilience efforts in Africa include raising awareness, resilience planning, better preparedness to disasters, and resilient infrastructure, as summarized in table 6.1. While resilience plans across several cities of Sub-Saharan Africa are being developed, additional funding will be needed most urgently to help support the implementation of these plans. Additionally, many other cities across the continent will need support to prepare and implement resilience plans. Table 6.1: Progress of Support to Climate-Smart Cities, June 2018 Activity Progress • Provision of Efforts have moved beyond technical assistance toward dedicated financing in three areas: (i) capacity US$50 million building; (ii) resilient infrastructure, buildings, and services; and (iii) partnerships and city networking for in technical knowledge sharing. assistance for Stronger capacity for integrated risk management is expected to benefit more than 100 cities and about 30 cities 70 million people. Capacity building activities through technical assistance have ranged from diagnostic • Investment of studies to deepen understanding of multisectoral linkages across the urban space, damage assessments US$2 billion from climate-related disasters to support resilient recovery, scaling up of nature-based solutions for flood to support protection, and open data for resilience initiatives to support evidence-based decision making. climate- and The target of developing resilience plans in 20 African cities by 2022 has been well surpassed, with local disaster- resilience planning and capacity building activities completed or underway in more than 100 cities (across resilient 10 countries). Activities are also planned for two large cities (Accra and Kinshasa) and one megacity (Dar development es Salaam). in 30 cities The WBG has committed a total of US$2.27 billion to support investment operations for climate- and disaster-resilient development in urban areas across 12 countries. Approximately US$624 million in investments is planned for FY19. Of the target investment in resilience-building activities for nine cities, operations are ongoing across 12 countries. Seven of the operations directly target specific cities are ranging in size from medium (Saint Louis, Freetown) to large (Accra, Antananarivo, Dakar, Dar Es Salaam, Ibadan), while the remaining five operations have a larger geographic scope, covering several cities across the country. An additional seven investment operations are planned for the next fiscal year with large-scale investments targeted for the cities of Accra, Cotonou, Dar es Salaam, and Kinshasa. 76 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 6.1: Progress of Support to Climate-Smart Cities, June 2018 (continued) Forward Look Climate-Smart Cities is a crucial and large multisectoral business line. Policy changes to improve the form and functions of African cities; shift to climate-resilient buildings, infrastructure, services, efficient land-use and planning and building regulations; and enforcement capacity are key. There is a critical need to invest in upstream analysis on making a case for such investments, and knowledge exchange with other regions that have gone through such transitions. Resource Mobilization • IDA and total targets have exceed expectations. • Need for continued resource mobilization. Table 6.2: Ongoing and Planned World Bank Investments in Climate-Smart Cities in Africa Size of investment City Project name Purpose (US$, millions) Ongoing Antananarivo, Integrated Urban Development and Improve living conditions in low-income 75 Madagascar Resilience Project communities Dakar, Senegal (with Storm Water Management and the cities of Diamniado Climate Change Adaptation; Flood prevention and preparedness and 96.1 and Saint Louis co-financing from the GEF urban resilience planning benefitting) Sustainable Cities program Rehabilitate critical infrastructure and Freetown Emergency Recovery Freetown, Sierra Leone strengthen capacity for managing disaster 10 Project risk Ibadan, Nigeria Ibadan Urban Flood Mitigation Flood risk mitigation preparedness 200 Planned relocation of populations living in Saint Louis Emergency Recovery Saint Louis, Senegal the highest risk coastal zones and urban 30 and Resilience Project resilience planning Improve urban management, access to Seven cities in Cameroon Inclusive and Resilient infrastructure and increase resilience to 160 Cameroon Cities Development Project floods Several (118) cities in Urban Infrastructure and Institutional Urban emergency response and disaster 600 Ethiopia Development Project risk management planning Improve access to infrastructure and Togo Infrastructure and Urban Seven cities in Togo strengthen capacity for urban planning and 30 Development Project management Planned Greater Accra Resilient and Climate-resilient flood mitigation measures, Accra, Ghana 100 Integrated Development Project urban upgrading Benin Urban Resilience and Storm Flood prevention and preparedness and Cotonou, Benin 100 Water Management Project urban resilience planning Dar es Salaam, Additional Financing to the Planned relocation of populations at risk 120 Tanzania Metropolitan Development Project and integrated investments Kinshasa, Congo, Dem. Kinshasa Urban Development and Risk sensitive urban planning and 150 Rep. Resilience Project development Mogadishu, Somalia Somalia Urban Resilience Project 9 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 77 In terms of partnerships and city networking for knowledge sharing, the Bank is a part of the Medellin Collaboration on urban resilience and has been working closely with international partners, including the Cities Alliance, UN Habitat, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Rockefeller Foundation and its 100 Resilient Cities initiative, the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), and the French International Development Agency (AFD). See box 6.1 for an example of strengthening resilience in a coastal city. Box 6.1 Strengthening Resilience in Coastal Cities: Saint Louis Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project The historical city of Saint-Louis (registered as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 2000) is on the northwest coast of Senegal at the mouth of the Senegal River. With a population of 232,000 (2017), the city has experienced rapid growth over the last 50 years. Langue de Barbarie is a thin, sandy peninsu- la adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean, which plays an important role in the protection of the city. While its geophysical characteristics, including the wind and wave climate, render this shoreline susceptible to natural erosion processes, human activities such as unplanned settlement and climate change impacts have significantly exacerbated erosion. In recent years, coastal erosion along the Langue de Barbarie has accelerated, with up to 5 meters to 6 meters of beach loss per year. Devastating storm surges took place in August 2017 and February 2018, rendering more than 250 families homeless, with many living in very precarious conditions in the flood-prone Khar Yalla relief camp and inadequate access to basic services. Saint Louis has identified all households (approximately 10,000 people)—In addition to the families that have already lost their homes within a band of ap- proximately 20 meters along the sea as being within the extremely high-risk zone. With the Langue de Barbarie area experiencing two to three severe storm surges per year, it is expected that many of these families within the extremely high-risk zone will lose their homes within the next few years. In response, the World Bank is financing the US$30 million Senegal Saint Louis Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project (SERRP), which aims to reduce the vulnerability of populations to coastal hazards along the Langue de Barbarie and strengthen urban and coastal resilience planning of Saint-Louis. The project can respond to immediate-, medium-, and longer-term needs associated with both the urgency of the disaster response, combined with longer-term planning to address the causes of vulnerability. For the most immediate needs regarding the displaced population, the SERRP will support the Govern- ment of Senegal to provide temporary accommodation and essential services for affected households, and urgently improve their living conditions in line with global standard practices. The temporary shelter solution will accommodate disaster victims during the transitory phase until a permanent housing solution is available, for an estimated period of two to three years. For the medium-term, the project will support the planned relocation of vulnerable households affected by coastal erosion and living within the extremely high-risk zone along the Langue de Barbarie. For longer-term resilience building, the SERRP will support activities such as reclamation or restoration of the vacated land along the Langue de Barbarie, the design of a coastal risk management solution to protect the its shoreline, and develop- ment of an urban resilience plan. 78 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development A street scene in Madagascar, where green, resilient cities can mean healthier populations. (World Bank/Arne Hoel) Reflections and Opportunities for Future Progress With an ongoing and pipeline portfolio of US$2.9 billion in investment operations, which already surpasses the target of US$2 billion by FY23, the Climate-Smart Cities is a crucial and large business line under the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP). This multisectoral business line involves coordination and cooperation of various Global Practices (GPs), primarily Water, Transport, Environment, Energy, Social Protection, and Health. Policy changes aimed at improving form and functions of African cities as well as ensuring climate-resilient buildings, infrastructure, and services are fundamental for reducing cost, improving efficiency, reducing poverty, and increasing the Africa Region’s climate resilience. African cities are sprawling and mostly monocentric, as well as unprepared to absorb phenomenal urban growth predicted in coming years. To support Africa’s urban transition, the key focus of the World Bank should be to support Development Policy Operations (DPOs) and other measures and incentives to improve implementation of efficient land use and planning regulations, building regulations, and ensuring that the national and subnational governments have sufficient implementation and enforcement capacity. There is a need to invest in upstream analysis on making a case for such investments by showing economic and social benefits, and knowledge exchange with other regions that have gone through such transitions. Coastal cities also require special attention and coordination with environment, energy, food, and water sectors due to the concentration of population and economic activities. Green buildings should be in the business line of Climate- Smart Cities. Additionally, the transport sector is developing climate-resilient design codes for resilient transport infrastructure, which are relevant and need to be part of the Climate-Smart Cities’ agenda. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 79 Rebuilding dunes in Mauritania protects communities from aggravated coastal erosion. (World Bank) 7. Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Coastal Zones in West Africa Context The West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program (WACA) is a response to the increasing perils of coastal erosion and flooding, while better tapping the potential of the blue economy. The program uses a mix of technical assistance and investments to strengthen the resilience of coastal communities and their assets against climate and other natural hazards. It relies on engineering and nature-based solutions and will support the preservation and rehabilitation of natural coastal resources. See box 7.1 on ways of measuring progress toward coastal resilience. The program cooperates with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Secretariat of the Abidjan Convention, the Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE), and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Under the WACA Platform, outreach is ongoing with other development partners, including France, Spain, The Netherlands, the European Investment Bank, the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, the OPEC Fund for International Development, the Islamic Development Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Union (EU), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Korea-World Bank Partnership Facility, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 7.1. 80 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 7.1: Progress of World Bank Support to Address Coastal Erosion in Western Africa, June 2018 Activity Progress • Provision technical assistance for national A coalition of client countries and development partners are and regional policy dialogues, stakeholder advancing the WACA program to strengthen resilience of coastal engagement, assessment of the cost of coastal communities and their assets against climate and other natural degradation, generation of data and knowledge hazards. A total of US$225 million of investment project financing for adaptive coastal management, development (IPF) and about US$10 million in technical assistance (TA) have of decision-making tools, and the preparation been mobilized. of climate-resilient coastal development and The WBG Board approved in April 2018 US$190 million of IDA investment plans and US$20.25 million of GEF for the five-year WACA Resilience • Investment in hard and green infrastructure, Investment Project (P162337, WACA ResIP) for six countries including constructing of transportation (Benin, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, networks, piers, artificial reefs, groins, and and Togo) and four regional institutions: WAEMU, the Secretariat other erosion and flooding management of the Abidjan Convention, the CSE, and the IUCN. The program infrastructure and transportation networks will address coastal erosion, flooding, and improved watershed (hard infrastructure) and the preservation and management, and support pollution control. The project has expansion of green or natural infrastructure already leveraged €12 million from the NDF, as well as US$3 million (mangroves, sand dunes, vegetation, coastal worth of technical assistance from the European Space Agency. aggregates, coastal forest, lagoons and A WACA platform has mobilized an additional €5 million from coastal swamps, water plants, and so forth) the NDF and US$1 million from the GFDRR. The main pillars that provide services that manage coastal include establishing a Knowledge Management System to channel erosion and flooding (green infrastructure) expertise and solution to countries, a WACA Market Place to • Scaling up engagement with other regions match available finance with countries’ needs, a Regional Dialogue of Africa experiencing similar pressure in Mechanism to pursue decision and commitments from partners, coastal zones and an International Expertise System. A dialogue has started with the ICC, which supports implementation of the regional strategy on safety and security within the Central and West African common maritime space. Forward Look Recognizing the need for US$2 billion of financing, the WACA Platform will seek to attract existing and new financing instruments. Resource Mobilization • IDA target has exceeded expectations. • Resource mobilization continues through the WACA Platform. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 81 Box 7.1 Measuring Progress toward Coastal Resilience Resilience is applied to many contexts, including transport, agriculture, and social protection, but there is no common set of tools and approaches in assessing progress. Measuring coastal resilience is even more difficult because of the multiple sectors operating on the coast, and the environmental goods and services provided by the ecosystem and increasingly under threat from climate change. In WACA, coastal resilience is measured in terms of the ability to mitigate, adjust to, or to create a fundamentally new system so as to avoid negative impacts from threats and hazards—measuring the absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities of coastal communities. The project activities are estimated to directly benefit approximately 200,000 people at project sites in the six beneficiary countries; they live along the coast and depend on it for their livelihoods. These people, including women and youth, and people living on marginal lands on barrier islands and near lagoons are at immediate risk from coastal erosion, flooding, and salinity intrusion. They also suffer from the negative impacts of both marine and coastal pollution. Their livelihoods are often highly dependent on natural resources or ecosystem services that are increasingly being degraded. Unlike other seg- ments of society, poor people have few savings to draw on to respond to shocks and typically have very limited access to formal credit or recovery resources. Therefore, the focus in measurements of improved resilience is on households and the reduction in exposure to erosion, flooding, and pollution. In addition, because of the transboundary nature of the risks, the project will measure progress made on collaborative agreements between regional institutions to ascertain that regional commitments are incorporated within national sectoral plans, that a mechanism is in place to monitor Coastal Erosion, Flooding, and Pollution (CEFP) reduction, and that the regional coastal observatory (MOLOA) is estab- lished and operational. Source: World Bank website, http://projects.worldbank.org/P162337?lang=en. Future Opportunities Recognizing the needs for financing—US$2 billion—vastly surpass available funding, the Bank management committed in July 2018 to establishing the WACA Platform to attract existing and develop new financing instruments. Initially, the platform would be hosted by the Bank, to provide technical assistance and link donors to countries. Over time, when capacity is built, trust established, and a coordinating mechanism formalized among the WACA countries, this facility would be moved to a suitable institution in West Africa. 82 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 8. Promoting Climate-Resilient Transport Context In the African context, transport operations are vulnerable to climate impacts. Across the continent, transport services and infrastructure are affected by higher frequency and intensity of extreme wind and storm events, increased precipitation intensity, extreme heat, and change in average precipitation patterns. In addition, transport infrastructure investments along coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise and storm surges. Consequently, roads are damaged more often, and are costlier to maintain. Major infrastructure assets such as ports, railway, or airports have a shorter life span and operational capacity than expected. Moreover, although historically the Africa Region has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of any continent, this share is now growing rapidly, driven by the increase in fossil fuel use. Urban air pollution in African cities is on the rise, due to rapid economic and population growth and an increase in motorization. Conscious of these challenges, the World Bank proposed a transport business plan, which was presented at Conference of Parties (COP22), in Marrakech. The plan complements the first Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) by developing a strategy and work program to mainstream the climate challenge into transport programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, the proposed business plan focuses on two strategic objectives: (i) improving the resilience of African transport infrastructure to climate change; and (ii) improving the carbon efficiency of transport systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Mainstream climate benefits into the Bank’s transport program for Sub-Saharan Africa are summarized in table 8.1. Table 8.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for ACBP Expected outcomes Activity Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) Strategic Objective 1: Improving the climate • Vulnerability assessments • Vulnerability assessments of selected resilience of African transport infrastructure of selected transport transport infrastructure done in at least • Vulnerability assessments of selected infrastructure done in at six countries transport infrastructure least three countries • Securing financing (through road funds) • Climate-resilient infrastructure design • Securing financing for road for road maintenance in at least six maintenance in at least countries • Revision of design standards and three countries specifications • Projects with climate-resilient • Projects with climate- infrastructure design in at least five resilient infrastructure countries design in at least • Improving resilience of coastal road infrastructure in five countries Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 83 Table 8.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for ACBP (continued) Expected outcomes Activity Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) • Projects with climate-smart • Projects with climate-smart spatial Strategic Objective 2: Improving the spatial planning in at least planning in at least three countries carbon efficiency of transport systems one country • Bus rapid transit projects in at least five • Climate-smart spatial planning • Bus rapid transit projects in countries • Modal shift to urban transport at least two countries • Truck fleet renewal projects in at least • Modal shift to railroad transit • Truck fleet renewal projects two countries in at least two countries • Railway infrastructure rehabilitation • Fleet management and scrappage project in at least one country Cumulative resource mobilizationa Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds Main partners (US$, millions) by 2024) (US$, millions) Governments, multilateral and bilateral 300 900 development partners (French Agency for Development, European Investment Bank, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Netherlands, Ministry of Dev. Cooperation Netherlands), private sector (foreign private commercial sources, Tanzania Public Private Partnership Support Program), GCF Note: Based on FY15–18 average, Transport ACBP Commitment share, and the average assigned share of climate co-benefits financing, it is estimated that 45 percent of the total resource mobilization represents the assigned climate co-benefits financing. Implementation of the transport component is underway. Progress was made on the analytic, strategic, and investment financing fronts, as summarized in table 8.2. Table 8.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Resilient Transport, FY16–FY19 Activity Progress • Provision of financial Over this period, efforts to embed climate resilience and low-carbon measures as part of the support project design led to a progressively larger share of newly approved transport projects in Africa • Provision of aligned with the transport objectives under the ACBP: (i) improve the resilience of African analytical support transport infrastructure to climate change; and (ii) improve the carbon efficiency of transport and strategic systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. engagement This resulted in a commitment of US$1.9 billion, of which 90 percent are IDA funds, for 15 climate- informed projects over that three-year period. The latest addition to the WBG portfolio consists of four climate informed transport projects and represents the entirety of the FY18 transport approvals for Africa, with a combined IDA financing commitment of US$553 million. 84 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 8.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Climate-Resilient Transport, FY16–FY19 (continued) Forward Look To move from a reactive to a proactive business model on climate-resilient and low-carbon transport in Africa, the Bank will continue to emphasize transformative core technical work on resilience and decarbonization of transport systems. Core technical work on resilience includes: (i) working on logistics and freight, including better multimodal connections; (ii) country-level infrastructure vulnerability assessments by refining and scaling-up existing methodologies; (iii) increasing resilience of urban mobility systems by improving planning processes to avoid creating vulnerabilities; (iv) systematically integrating climate data and hydromet information into design of infrastructure and services; (v) a priori planning for disaster recovery in the transport sector; (vi) building client capacity to create, use, and communicate data products; (vii) better integration of road infrastructure design with watershed management to avoid creating future vulnerabilities in a front-of- pipe, proactive manner; and (viii) promoting research on techniques of decision making under uncertainty to help countries make flexible infrastructure investment decisions in the face of highly uncertain future conditions. Core technical work on low-carbon transport includes: (i) growing the urban transit business line, investing in better upstream spatial planning in urban areas, emphasizing vehicle fleet management as a way of controlling emissions; (ii) improving the efficiency of the trucking fleet, which carries the largest share of African ton-kilometers of freight, as well as finding ways to better harness the efficiency improvements offered by better freight logistics; and (iii) working on improving the enabling environment in African countries, for example by changing subsidy regimes that are not conducive to climate resilience Resource Mobilization • IDA target met with strong pipeline. • Need for continued resource mobilization. Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced The first line of defense for resilience in the roads sector is maintenance: it offers the best return on investment through protection from damage caused by climatic conditions. The Global Practice (GP) is pursuing community-based delivery of basic maintenance services, particularly in rural areas, and is investigating means of collecting user fees to pay for routine maintenance. This approach requires both upstream involvement at a policy level and iterative learning through constant feedback. The GP is consolidating best practices for physical improvements that can be brought to rural roads, given the importance of the stock of unpaved rural road assets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Guidelines on technical design elements to improve resilience have been developed this year in the context of a feeder roads project in Mozambique, intended to reverse the traditionally perceived adversarial relationship between roads and water management (see box 8.1). Those principles are being mainstreamed in similar projects across the Africa Region (e.g., in Chad). Systematic mainstreaming can help achieve a resilient capital stock in rural transport.   In recent years, the GP has intervened on the policy level for road maintenance financing in African countries. Many countries finance road maintenance through second-generation road maintenance funds, which are inadequate in providing sufficient and consistent maintenance funding. Transport specialists have worked with other GPs, notably Governance, to integrate policy changes on maintenance funding into Development Policy Operations (DPOs). Cameroon is a notable example of a specific prior action on road maintenance in US$150 million governance DPO approved in FY18, and the GP hopes to replicate this experience in other countries in Africa. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 85 Tanzania boasts new, and greener public transport that cuts transportation costs and reduces traffic. (World Bank/Hendri Lombard) Finally, the Transport GP is improving the collection and use of data in our projects in Africa. Top-down sources, such as remote sensing and in situ measurements, are seeing increased use in our projects, as will bottom-up data. It is hoped that in the medium term this will lead to better indicator design and outcome measurement, especially at the policy level. Box 8.1 Mozambique Integrated Feeder Road Development Project The Mozambique Integrated Feeder Roads Development International Development Association (IDA) project of US$150 million reflects the importance of climate mainstreaming to generate multiplier bene- fits to the economy and people. The project will enhance road access in the provinces of Zambezia and Nampula, where most of the country’s rural poor households live; and where average farm income is three times lower than in the rest of the country due to poor rural access, among other factors. About 6.5 million rural dwellers do not have access to a road in good or fair condition in Mozam- bique, and climate shocks and natural disasters exacerbate chronic low agricultural productivity. This project will target 10 districts in the Zambezia and Nampula provinces, which have high agricultural potential and a total population of around 2.2 million people, of which approximately 1.5 million live below the poverty line. 86 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Strengthening Resilience of Africa’s Assets— Human and Social Capital 9. Social Development and Resilience As the climate changes, millions of poor people throughout Africa will face greater challenges in terms of extreme events, health effects, food security, livelihood security, migration, water security, and cultural identity. Strengthening social resilience—the capacity for all members of society to thrive despite shocks, requires a strong focus on poverty reduction and addressing underlying causes of vulnerability. Governments will need to work at a scale greater than ever before and focus support for building resilience at the ground level where the effects are felt the most. Key approaches that the Bank supports to strengthen social resilience include building adaptive social protection systems to protect the most vulnerable populations from climate shocks and changing trends, addressing the drivers and impacts of migration, and supporting community-led approaches that channel resources and decision-making power on risk management to communities. Context — Boosting Social Protection Climate change and natural disasters disproportionally affect poor and vulnerable people who live in areas that are more exposed and vulnerable to shocks. Negative effects can be significant because poor households withdraw their children from school and sell productive assets. Social protection can increase the resilience of these households by helping them weather the negative effectives of a shock and by extending a regular stream of support to improve the productivity of their economic activities or diversify their livelihoods. The World Bank is supporting the expansion and strengthening of social protection systems to increase the resilience of poor and vulnerable groups to climate variability and change. It is also helping governments put in place mechanisms to scale up safety net programs to respond to climate-related shocks when they occur. It has allocated financing in response to shocks, particularly droughts, to allow governments to provide support to affected households through national safety net programs. Across Africa, the Bank is helping governments consolidate and strengthen the delivery of social protection systems, including by promoting adaptive social protection, which seeks to anticipate and respond to climate change. Adaptive social protection comprises flexible instruments that can protect poor households from climate and other shocks before they occur (through predictable transfers, community asset building, livelihood support, and other programs) and can scale up to respond to shocks and extreme events when they hit. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 87 The expected outcome of this component of the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) is an increase in the number of people covered by adaptive social protection programs across Sub-Saharan Africa. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 9.1. Table 9.1: Progress of World Bank Support for Social Protection Programs, June 2018 Activity Progress • Support of activities that reduce sensitivity A total of 33 projects that directly contribute to the ACBP were to climate-related shocks (soil conservation, approved or were in the process of being approved by the WBG watershed management, development of Board. The value is estimated at more than US$2 billion, financed by irrigation channels, water conservation, the IDA and trust fund resources, and greatly exceeded the targets set better cropping, enclosures, better food out in the ACBP, reflecting a growing demand for these services. The storage facilities, rainwater capture) portfolio includes these and other adaptive elements: Provision of analytical support and strategic In Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania, Madagascar, Mozambique, Lesotho, engagement Niger, Senegal, Uganda, and other countries, safety net programs • Creation of registry systems to identify have been scaled up to respond to shocks; these are based on early people at risk because of climate-related warning information ranging from the use of seasonal assessment events and humanitarian appeals to the creation of new triggers based on • Establishment of early warning systems data from satellites. The WBG works with humanitarian partners to harmonize approaches and build systems. • Implementation of green public works, including soil conservation, watershed In Madagascar, the Sahel, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, and many management, development of irrigation other countries, the WBG supports livelihood activities to diversify, channels, water conservation, better intensify, and expand productive activities that focus on climate cropping, enclosures, better food storage adaptation. facilities, and rainwater capture New registry systems (household registries) facilitate the quick • Provision of livelihood support, including identification and enrollment of households affected by climate change by encouraging savings and disaster risk into safety net programs. In Senegal, a social registry is being developed insurance, building household assets, to preregister the poorest and most vulnerable individuals. preventing asset erosion as a result of Public works programs (in Ethiopia, Niger, Madagascar, Tanzania, drought through alternative sources of and elsewhere) focus on investments in landscape management (soil income, supplementing savings and income conservation, watershed management, reforestation, rehabilitation of with grants to support investments in eroded lands) through programs that plant trees, create soil bunds, livelihoods, and reducing risk exposure terrace land, and create area enclosures, which have direct effects on climate mitigation. Forward Look Africa recognizes the role of safety net programs in responding to shocks. During this reporting period, the Bank channeled funds from its Crisis Response Window through national safety net programs in Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, and Mozambique to respond to drought, delivering them through national safety net programs. See box 9.1 for an example. Ongoing technical assistance (TA) is helping governments identify and secure financing to scale-up safety nets. It includes work on macro-insurance, such as that offered to countries through the Africa Risk Capacity, contingency budgets, and instruments, including Development Policy Loans (DPLs) with Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Options (CAT-DDOs) and more traditional humanitarian financing. Efforts are underway in six countries in the Sahel to design, test, and pilot productive interventions that promote livelihood diversification. These are intended to raise household earnings and facilitate income-smoothing and resilience. See box 9.2 for a sample program in Ethiopia. A multicountry impact evaluation will generate rigorous results. Resource Mobilization • IDA target met with strong pipeline. • Need for continued resource mobilization. 88 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 9.1 Promoting Social Resilience through WACA For vulnerable communities living along the coast of West Africa, the impacts of climate change are not only unavoid- able but are already happening. Coastal erosion and flooding have affected the lives of about 13 million people in cities and villages in the coastal areas between Mauritania and Gabon in the past 17 years. During this period, 109 flood-related events in these countries killed more than 2,000 people. Millions have suffered detrimental impacts to their livelihoods. Hundreds of families are regularly forced to leave their homes due to coastal erosion and storm surges, and thousands more are facing the same fate. The West Africa Coastal Areas (WACA) Platform and investment activities include a strong emphasis on engaging coastal communities in decision making to protect the rights of those affected by WACA activities and to partner with communities on sustainable solutions. In São Tomé and Principe, communities have asked for relocation assistance after recurrent storm surges washed away homes and assets and claimed lives. (See box 9.3.) WACA has supported planned relocation by work- ing with four communities: identify those most at risk, identify safe land, and allocate plots in a safer area. National and local leaders in other countries involved in WACA are asking for similar help. WACA Resilience Investment Project (ResIP) is supporting a process of community-led resilience planning, which, rather than provide prescriptive instructions, will walk stakeholders through the inputs needed to make decisions, the questions to consider regard- ing who needs to be involved, and how to assess and identify needed resources. From there, it will develop guidance around potential pathways. Where planned relocation is identified by communities as a viable option, WACA will support a participatory process for relocation planning and decision making. Past experiences have demonstrated the substan- tial challenges of moving people from vulnerable areas. It is a complex process fraught with social risk. There is much information to consider, and complex, deeply rooted issues related to people’s livelihoods, culture, and identity. To have the best chance of success, communities and governments need to partner. WACA supports transparent processes and plans anchored in a long-term vision of inclusive, climate-resilience development. That way, communities are not relocating in a rushed, reactive manner after the trauma of loss of life, livelihoods, and assets. In addition to citizen engagement, WACA promotes gender and social inclusion. The ongoing project activities are estimated to directly benefit approximately 200,000 people at project sites in six countries; they live along the coast and depend on it for their livelihoods. These people, including women, youth, elders, and other marginalized groups, are highly dependent on natural resources or ecosystem services that are increasingly being degraded. As a first step, the WACA ResIP program will develop a Gender Action Plan to ensure that women are both protected and empowered as resilience champions. At the launch of the WACA Platform in November 2018 in Senegal, civil society and grassroots leaders, representing women, youth, elders, persons with disabilities, and other groups gathered to provide feedback on the platform. They suggested ways to engage civil society in decision making, awareness building of communities, and knowledge sharing. The WACA Platform will continue to work with civil society to design a platform that engages and responds to the needs of coastal communities. Box 9.2 Harnessing Mitigation Benefits through Social Protection Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) integrates cash and food transfers in exchange for labor on pub- lic works to reduce short-term poverty as well as long-term dependence by investing in the productive capacity and resilience of communities. Using this approach, Ethiopia has embarked upon an ambitious national program of land restoration and sustainable land management since 2005. Although the intent was to reduce poverty, a recent analysis shows that an unintended co-benefit is the climate change mitigation from reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased landscape carbon stocks. The total reduction in net GHG emissions from PSNP’s land management at the national scale is estimated at 3.4 million Mg CO2e y−1, or approximately 1.5 percent of the emissions reductions in Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the Paris Agreement. (Woolf, Solomon, and Lehmann 2018) Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 89 Future Opportunities Social protection can help to respond to climate-related shocks, particularly drought, both in terms of adaptation and mitigation. Further innovations in crafting mechanisms that can scale up these systems and develop innovative means of financing responses, beyond the current reliance on humanitarian funding, are necessary and expected. Countries are concerned about marginalized people and their lack of access to economic inclusion. An increasing number of countries are promoting productive inclusion of safety net beneficiaries and beyond to build their resilience to climate change and long- term local development. Context — Addressing the Drivers and Impacts of Migration Climate change is expected to affect all forms of mobility in Africa—internal and cross-border, short and long distance, temporary and permanent, voluntary and forced. Negative impacts could affect millions of poor people. Africa is home to more than 18 million forcibly displaced people—more than a quarter of the global total. Climate change is emerging as a potent driver of migration. Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration (Rigaud et al. 2018) projects that, by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 3 percent of the population across Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia—could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow onset impacts of climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, “internal climate migrants” could reach more than 85 million, representing up to 4 percent of the Africa Region’s total population, unless concrete climate and development actions are taken. Climate migration can have substantial development implications, and the stakes are high. Achieving a resilient society—in which people can either adapt in place and thrive or migrate with dignity toward areas of higher opportunity—is an important part of meeting national development goals. The steady increase in conflicts that spill over borders and the intensifying impacts of climate extremes are increasing these numbers. The growing number of people on the move is straining current systems and will have long-term impacts on host countries. Influxes of migrants could undermine and reverse much of the development progress achieved in the past two decades. The World Bank continues to work with partners to deliver key knowledge products, innovative joint operations, and knowledge exchanges to strengthen social and economic resilience in rural and urban spaces. A critical aspect of social resilience is understanding and addressing the multiple drivers of migration and their interactive effects with other sources of vulnerability. This includes developing a better understanding of the conditions that lead to migration, and how mobility can be a positive adaptation strategy. Progress has been made in several areas, as summarized in table 9.2. 90 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 9.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Addressing Drivers of Migration, June 2018 Activity Progress • Develop strategic operations or components in ongoing operations in the Lake Several large operations, with Chad Basin and the Horn of Africa financing of more than US$300 • Build the evidence base and establish a knowledge partnership million, were approved for Kenya, Uganda, the Great Lakes, and • Pilot and promote innovation on mixed migration (complex population regional (DRDIP in Ethiopia, Uganda, movements, including refugees, asylum seekers, economic migrants, and Djibouti) projects to address the people displaced by natural disasters or climate change) impacts of forced displacement and • AFCC2/RI-GLR—Displaced Persons and Border Communities in Djibouti, migration. Ethiopia, and Uganda (P152822) project, US$20 million. Activities include Additional Financing of US$8.18 social and economic services and infrastructure; sustainable environmental million for the Kenya DRDIP management; and a livelihoods program through an MDTF with Danish trust • Kenya Somalia-HOA: Support to FD Impacts, Eastern Africa (P161067). funds augments core investments. The project addresses the needs of forcibly displaced people from Somalia Additional financing of US$150 million and other countries and the Kenyan host communities in Turkana, Wajir, for Uganda includes investments and Garissa counties with the following components (more than 1 million across refugee hosting districts and beneficiaries): (i) social and economic infrastructure and services (education, with investments in natural resource primary and secondary health services, water supply, sanitation, and hygiene management and a proposed using community-driven development [CDD] approach); (ii) environmental Displacement Crisis Response and natural resource management by restoring the environment through tree Mechanism to ensure resilience planting, rainwater harvesting, waste management; improving access to energy of hosting communities impacted in the form of environmentally friendly, alternative sources of household energy; by an influx of refugees beyond a and improving livelihood opportunities, such as crop and livestock and skills predefined threshold. Some have training; (iii) project management; and (iv) IGAD support received additional financing to • Central African Republic—Displacement Project (P161591). This project caters augment core investments. to displaced and host communities, about 190,000 beneficiaries in total, 50 Smaller targeted projects include a percent of them women. Component 1 provides access to basic services and US$3 million grant to the IGAD to set infrastructure; component 2 finances safety nets; and component 3 supports up the Regional Secretariat on Forced community mobilization, capacity building, and TA. Displacement and Mixed Migration, • Zambia—GLR Displaced Persons Project (P163895) AF supports the targeting inclusive community following components to (i) improve access to livelihoods and socioeconomic resilience and gender-based violence infrastructure for displaced people and host communities in target areas of (Somalia) as well as adaptation the territory of the Zambia; and (ii) support regional learning on development measures (São Tomé and Principe). responses to forced displacement. • The pipeline Burundi Refugees: GLR-SOP BI Component (P164124) is expected to support socioeconomic infrastructure (e.g., schools, health clinics) and agropastoral production for refugees and host communities. Forward Look • Flows of forcibly displaced people continue to increase. • The Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes region, the Lake Chad region, and the Sahel are areas that continue to experience high flows of displaced people; providing longer-term development solutions and transitioning from emergency assistance are having a transformative impact. An additional long-term challenge is to address the need for mobility as an adaptation strategy. The Bank’s Groundswell flagship report (Rigaud et al. 2018) underscores upward climate migration trends with targeted climate action and concrete social and economic development. In-depth analysis for Lake Victoria and West Africa will inform policy dialogue and action. Ongoing efforts on planned, voluntary relocation in São Tomé and Principe are providing critical lessons for other communities and countries, particularly WACA countries. Resource Mobilization Targets are on track, but low, which may in part be due to overlaps with social protection delivery. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 91 Box 9.3 Anticipatory Planning and Relocation in Response to Climate Risks In São Tomé and Principe, communities have asked for relocation assistance after recurrent storm surges washed away homes and assets and claimed lives. A pilot program for voluntary relocation is working with four communities and will be scaled up to include others. The pilots start with participa- tory risk and vulnerability mapping to identify who is most at risk and needs to move. Land has been identified, and plots are being allocated, with communities driving the process. To prevent people from returning to the vulnerable areas, and to ensure that the new, safer location attracts more people, the government is planning to invest in the new areas to make them growth poles for the future. Reflections and Future Opportunities Djibouti and Uganda, as well as neighboring Ethiopia, will likely be affected by the near doubling of the population (Rigaud et al. 2018, 142). Providing longer- term development solutions and transitioning from emergency assistance is having a transformative impact. Experience has shown that when communities see that refugees have the opportunity to contribute to development, and when host communities are supported, there are long-term benefits for all. As Bank operations in this area grow, it will be important to monitor impacts and share learning. A long-term challenge is to address mobility as an adaptation strategy. The Bank is analyzing migration trends due to climate change, which will inform dialogue with low- income countries (LICs) on how migration can be a positive adaptation mechanism and a contributor to social and economic development. The ongoing efforts on planned, voluntary relocation in São Tomé and Principe are critical lessons, informing the development of a framework to guide the decision making and implementation process to support other communities facing voluntary relocation. The framework is part of the WACA ResIP, which covers Benin, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, Nigeria, São Tomé and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo. The framework is being developed with WACA countries to ensure that relocation is a pro-poor, people-centered process in which communities drive the decision making. It promotes a clear understanding of the social risk involved, in addition to transparency and accountability to stakeholders. The complexity of this task cannot be understated. Relocation is an inherently disruptive experience, upending livelihoods, social networks, ways of life, and cultures. However, if planned carefully in advance, with the affected communities driving the decision making, it can be a potentially important opportunity for inclusive and resilient development planning. 92 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Powering Resilience 10. Renewable Energy in Africa The energy sector landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa is changing rapidly. Progress in modern energy service provision has become tangible for many households and businesses as accelerated energy infrastructure investment in recent years is bearing fruit. New technologies are transforming the way energy services are provided, with a larger role for renewable energy and private, sector-based service delivery. Governments are increasingly tapping into new sources of financing to fund energy infrastructure investment. However, despite these significant achievements, huge challenges remain. The drastically reduced price of renewables, especially solar power, has accelerated the global sustainable energy transition. The region has abundant renewable energy resources, including hydropower, natural gas, solar, wind, and geothermal. With more than 1,000 gigawatts of potential, solar and wind energy represent one of the most promising drivers for green growth, followed by hydropower (283 gigawatts of potential) and geothermal energy (15 gigawatts of potential). Sharp declines in cost have accelerated investments in utility-scale renewable energy, and further advances in storage will facilitate its integration into power grids. Investments in gas-to-power have picked up over the past decade, pushing out more polluting resources. As a result, the continent is on track to avoid a lock-in into coal and other high-polluting energy resources. Renewable production has increased by 6,002 gigawatt-hours in the region during the most recent 10-year period. The Bank has been instrumental in Africa’s energy transition to renewable energy. It has provided direct financing and risk guarantees for solar, hydro, and geothermal power generation projects in Africa, putting the Bank on track to achieve renewable energy targets committed in the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP). Africa’s climate-smart development needs more than renewables. Governments need to effectively plan a generation mix to optimize cost and climate impacts, as well as to ensure that power utilities are financially viable to be a creditworthy off-taker for private renewable power generation. Regional power interconnections need to be strengthened to enable low-cost renewables. The Bank is supporting client governments in Africa to address these broader sector challenges. Access to energy enhances Africa’s resilience to climate change. It improves people’s livelihoods and supports income generation through productive use of electricity. Under the framework of Sustainable Energy for All, the Bank is supporting client countries to achieve universal access to energy by 2030 through both on-grid and off-grid means. Energy access strengthens people’s capacity to adapt to economic and climatic challenges, thereby enhancing people’s resilience to climate change. The Bank anticipates a growth in engagements with African governments, the private sector, and civil society to help significantly increase the integration of renewable energy into the Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 93 supply mix and reduce the need for countries to get locked-in into fossil fuel solutions for their electricity supply. In 2018, there has been the development of more flexible power systems, with the addition of different forms of electricity storage and grid management technology. In addition, market reforms optimized investments and expanded markets toward multiple solutions to address sustainable and reliable energy access in almost all African countries, supported, and often led by, the World Bank and other development partners. Increasing the Use of Solar Power Africa is benefiting from the falling price of solar photovoltaics (PV) and associated storage equipment. Grid-connected solar is one of the lowest-cost generation options in many countries. There is also significant private investment flowing into off-grid solar energy. See table 10.1 for a summary of World Bank support for solar power. See box 10.1 for a case study. Table 10.1: Progress of World Bank Support for Solar Power, June 2018 Activity Progress • Engagement in sector The WBG is on track to achieve the short-term target of supporting 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2023. Between dialogue and policy FY16 and FY18, the WBG has approved lending for six grid-connected solar projects in five countries (Burkina Faso, support, including of The Gambia, Mali, Senegal, Zambia) and West African Power Pool (WAPP) in the amount of US$80 million. The regulation, taxation, and total solar generation capacity through these operations is 650 MW. With the existing portfolio and projects in the subsidies pipeline, the target is likely to be achieved ahead of 2023. • Provision of technical In Zambia, the first 47.5 MW solar PV at the West Lunga site (approved by the WBG Board in FY17) was assistance, including for developed using the Scaling Solar Initiative, and construction has started. In Senegal, through the Scaling Solar planning, solar resource Initiative, a tariff of US cents 4.9 per KWh has been achieved through transparent and competitive auction. mapping, transaction Between FY16 and FY18, 10 projects approved by the WBG Board had significant solar off-grid (mini-grid and structuring, and solar home systems) components. electricity grid integration The WBG approved electricity access projects with significant off-grid components (including both mini- • Provision of guarantee grids and solar home systems) in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The off-grid components in these operations, packages and lending totaling US$325 million, are expected to provide off-grid electricity services to an estimated number of 922,000 for public investment, households in Africa. As the subsector matures, there is likely to be an increased investment. public-private Outside the lending operations, WBG/ESMAP have launched the Global Solar Atlas, providing a public resource to partnerships, and debt guide solar development in Africa and elsewhere. The WBG has led Lighting Africa and Lighting Global programs facilities that support the scale-up of solar home systems. Forward Look Due to the falling cost of solar PV and successful cases of solar auctions in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is increasing demand for the Bank to support grid-connected PV electricity expansion as a solution to reduce dependency on fossil-fuel thermal electricity generation. Preparation has started on at least eight grid-connected solar projects, in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Comoros, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Madagascar, Niger, and Togo; and there will be an expansion of battery storage tied to PV electricity generation. There is also a strong momentum for scaling up off-grid electrification technologies, including solar home systems and mini-grids. Most of the electricity access projects recently approved by the Bank have integrated off-grid components. The Bank is preparing a regional project in West Africa to support an enabling environment for private solar off-grid solution in the region. Resource Mobilization • International Development Association (IDA) target has exceeded expectations. • Good pipeline and opportunities. • Continued need for resource mobilization 94 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 10.1 Global Solar Atlas The Global Solar Atlas provides quick and easy Internet access to solar resource data.a Data on all the key solar resource parameters are provided at 1-kilometer resolution, and users can download poster maps and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data for free. Since its launched by the World Bank in January 2017 (with funding by ESMAP), the Global Solar Atlas has become a popular tool, with an av- erage of 12,500 unique users a month as of November 2018, of which 32 percent are returning visitors. The Global Solar Atlas shows the locations of ESMAP-funded solar measurement campaigns, including those carried out in Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia. During FY18, ESMAP completed a pilot in West Af- rica and India to assess the potential for floating solar on existing hydropower sites; these data are now available. A new version of the Global Solar Atlas is in development to enhance the data and provide new functionality and tools. The Global Solar Atlas was joined by the improved Global Wind Atlasb in late 2017 and is part of the World Bank–hosted collection of energy data and visualization tools.c a. See the Global Solar Atlas website at http://globalsolaratlas.info. b. See the Global Wind Atlas website at https://globalwindatlas.info. c. See the World Bank website at https://energydata.info. Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced The financial viability of the sector is crucial to attract reputable investors for grid- connected PV and achieve a low-cost solar tariff. As many countries in the region scale up their solar PV generation, strengthening and optimizing the grid operation to cope with the variability of solar will be important. Grid codes need to be adopted systematically in every country to absorb variable renewable electricity. Significant investment on dispatch infrastructure is needed to enable instantaneous adjustments. Access to affordable working capital to off-grid solution providers is a key bottlenecks. Many Bank-funded projects support the working capital provision through establishing credit facilities. For mini-grid solutions, the public sector cost buy-down is typically needed to maintain affordable tariffs to end users. Nonetheless, the private sector operates an increasing number of mini-grids. The Bank is supporting National Electrification Strategies based on GIS-powered geospatial planning to integrate solar off-grid technologies in the region. Increasing Hydropower Use Hydropower is one of the largest sources of electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Many countries rely on it as the primary source of electricity. It also helps to stabilize the power system when other variable renewable energy is integrated into the grid. However, hydropower is subject to vulnerability arising from climate change and associated hydrological risks. Well-considered planning is needed to avoid power crises resulting from extreme climate events such as drought and floods. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 95 The World Bank is seeking to help increase the share of hydropower in the region’s electricity mix from 24 percent to 40 percent. It is focusing on developing midsize and large hydropower capacity and regulating water. The fast-track target of this initiative aims to raise US$1,208 million by 2020. This resource mobilization is expected to implement of 420 megawatts of low-cost hydropower in West Africa by 2023. Nine projects to help increase the use of hydropower in the region were approved in FY16 and FY17, for a total US$776 million of IDA resources. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 10.2. See details on the Cameroon Nachtigal Hydropower Project in box 10.2. Table 10.2: Progress of World Bank Support for Hydropower, June 2018 Activity Progress • Providing guarantee packages for large- The WBG approved 10 projects, which included support for hydropower scale hydropower projects development at a total scale of 460 MW. The largest project was the • Financing governments to construct Nachtigal Hydropower Project in Cameroon, with a capacity of 420 MW. small hydroelectric plants The remaining 60 MW are from small hydro projects at various stages of development. • Supporting upstream activities to identify, prepare, and design hydropower With pipeline projects in Malawi and Sierra Leone totaling 448 MW, the WBG projects should be meet the target of supporting 1 GW by 2026. Forward Look Considering increasing development of variable renewable energy, complementary services provided by hydropower should be further analyzed and enhanced in upcoming projects. Ancillary services and flexibility brought by hydropower are crucial to stability of energy systems. On that basis, support to the development of the energy market and remuneration for ancillary services could be further enhanced in coming initiatives. During planning and least-cost exercises, the energy sector may not want to compare levelized costs of energy between energy alternatives, since this simplistic method may hinder ancillary services provided by hydropower. Resource Mobilization • IDA target has exceeded expectations. • International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) has been leveraged. • Continued need for resource mobilization. Box 10.2 Cameroon Nachtigal Hydropower The Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency supported the private sector-led Nachtigal Hydropower Project (P157734) in Cameroon. By linking reforms, investment, mobilization, and catalytic action, the project promotes the judicious use of scarce public and concessional resources, crowds in commercial capital, and minimizes the public debt burden. This hydropower project is a good demonstration of the principles for Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD): it is not only crowding in private capital and reducing public debt but also lowering the overall costs of service for electricity and enabling the country to meet its energy demand and ambi- tious targets. This represents one of the few public-private partnerships in hydropower in Sub-Saharan Africa and sets the standard for other similar investments in the country and elsewhere. 96 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Future Opportunities The Bank will implement several ongoing hydropower initiatives and identify new schemes in the coming year. Opportunities include projects that (i) support regional power integration; (ii) reform water regulation to ensure year-round production which can catalyze the deployment of hydropower; (iii) increase private sector access to working capital for hydropower project developers; (iv) investigate the complementary development of hydropower with solar to maximize the synergies between the two technologies (because hydropower provides flexible regulation and ancillary services needed to increase the use of solar power); (v) explore complementarity with other water uses and purposes (flood protection, water supply, irrigation) to integrate the development of dams and hydropower; and (vi) look for ways to enhance agile practices and programmatic and risk-based approaches in the sector. Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced • A key lesson from the preparation of Nachtigal Hydropower Project in Cameroon is that a hydropower project needs a long-term prior involvement and commitment with the country energy sector. • One of the key challenges to hydropower development requires addressing negative publicity, misconceptions, and fear around hydropower and dams’ development. Environmental and social aspects of projects are a key pillar to be carefully managed and implemented, as per good international practices. A sophisticated communications strategy enhancing social and economic benefits of hydropower project can support these objectives. • Decision makers need to be supported to develop an understanding of key leverage and factors that will pave the way to successful preparation and implementation of projects. • Mobilization of transactions, with technical and financial advisors to governments and utilities, should be enhanced, in particular in the event of unsolicited proposals and direct agreements with developers. • As per solar sector, auctions for hydropower should also be supported in order to foster transparency and competitive power purchase agreements. Increasing Geothermal Power Use Geothermal energy is one of the few renewables that can function as the baseload without significant output variation (e.g., as with solar and wind energy). Kenya and Ethiopia have the largest geothermal resource endowments in the region, but other countries are exploring geothermal development, too. A key challenge is the significant resource uncertainty, which requires costly test drilling to confirm the economic viability. The Bank’s support has focused on sharing the risk of such upstream exploration. The World Bank seeks to help deploy thermal power in Sub-Saharan Africa by reinforcing the upstream development of geothermal sites to attract private investment in downstream development. These efforts will help scale up the sector in East Africa, in which just 1.5 percent (209 megawatts) of the estimated 14,000 megawatts of geothermal potential is being harnessed. The fast-track target of this initiative aims at raising US$950 million by 2020, US$500 million of it from IDA. This resource mobilization is expected to enable Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 97 implementation of 150 megawatts of geothermal generation capacity. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 10.3. Table 10.3: Progress of World Bank Support for Geothermal Energy, June 2018 Activity Progress • Provision of technical In 2016, the WBG approved a project that included US$53.2 million to support the cost assistance overrun of geothermal plants in Kenya (Olkaria I and IV, which totaled 280 MW). This • Provision of lending constitutes important progress toward the target of supporting 500 MW by 2026. for public investment In Ethiopia, geothermal drilling at the Aluto Langano site was delayed but is now progressing. in exploration and The WBG is supporting Ethiopia to develop its internal capacity for geothermal development development and public- through south-south knowledge sharing. private partnerships Technical assistance work for geothermal development, such as surface exploration, is for downstream ongoing in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. development There was no new geothermal project in FY18. Forward Look Several countries in East Africa are in the reconnaissance and early exploration phase with no investment projects identified in the near term. The Bank’s support has focused on sharing the risk of such upstream exploration. Resource Mobilization • Slow progress. • Reconnaissance and exploration work continues. Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced Due to uneven geothermal resource endowments in Africa, building a pipeline for geothermal projects has been a challenge. Geothermal resources suitable for power production, using conventional technology, have currently not been confirmed outside of Kenya and Ethiopia. Other countries in East Africa are in the reconnaissance and early exploration phase with no investment projects identified in the near term. Kenya generates a substantial share of its power by geothermal energy, with a number of new generation projects in the pipeline. Kenya may not have much need for additional Thirty-two million Africans have access to electricity due in part to geothermal baseload electricity generation World Bank initiatives. (World Bank/Arne Hoel) capacity in the medium term. In Ethiopia, the geothermal sector has developed more recently than in Kenya; domestic technical capacity for geothermal development will need to expand to enable an acceleration of investment projects. 98 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Enabling Resilience 11. Strengthening Africa’s Hydrometeorological Program Context The World Bank is supporting the enhancement of climate- and disaster-resilience capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa by strengthening countries’ weather, water, and climate (hydromet) services, including early warning, knowledge, and advisory services, and linking national systems with regional and global counterparts. Its program aims to strengthen national meteorological and hydrological services by providing the infrastructure, technical assistance, and capacity-building operations needed for integrated modernization. It facilitates horizontal integration of national hydromet services with users and vertical integration of national hydromet services with regional climate centers and global centers of excellence in a manner compliant with the Global Framework of Climate Services and the Cascading Forecasting Process. Phase I of the Africa hydromet program will benefit more than 100 million people in 15 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and four regional organizations. It is building the technical, human, and financial capacity to provide forecasts, warnings, and value added climate information services and products. It will enhance resilience to climate and disaster risks and augment the capacity to adapt to climate variability and change. Major climate-resilience benefits include reduction of climate and disaster risks and impacts, improved disaster preparedness, and enhanced resilience of social and productive infrastructure. Progress was made in several areas, as summarized in table 11.1. Table 11.1: Progress of World Bank Support for the Hydromet Program, June 2018 Activity Progress • Strengthening of NMHS, by By the end of FY18, the WBG’s active commitments in the Africa hydromet improving its ability to deliver program stood at US$230.1 million, a US$33.5 million increase over the services, building capacity, previous year, with support from the IDA, GCF, GFDRR, GEF, and CREWS. and supporting policy and Investment and technical assistance operations were being implemented in 19 institutional reforms countries (Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Congo, Dem. Rep., Ethiopia, Ghana, • Modernizing regional NMHS centers, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, including through the fostering of Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Zambia). cooperation with national institutions GFDRR grants to support coordination of the Africa hydromet program partnership • Integrating national, regional, and convened by the Bank were used to organize deep dive meetings of program global systems and knowledge and partners (WBG, WMO, AfDB, UNDP, ADF, and WFP) in Tokyo in September 2016; advisory services in Washington, DC, in December 2016; in Saly, Senegal, in May 2017; and in convening the Africa Hydromet Forum in Addis Ababa, co-hosted by the African Union Commission and the Government of Ethiopia in September 2017. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 99 Table 11.1: Progress of World Bank Support for the Hydromet Program, June 2018 (continued) Phase I of the hydromet program will be presented for the consideration of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) on a country-by- country basis in addition to leveraging International Development Association (IDA) financing both from national and regional windows, and from the Climate Risk Early Warning System (CREWS). The program will seek funding for regional climate centers. The portfolio at present has more than 10 countries from Sub-Saharan Africa, and a score of other countries and regional entities have expressed serious intent to join. However, the limits of IDA financing, which would act as the catalyst in crowding in other financing from GCF, CREWS, and other sources, have defined the constraints on optimum outcomes from the portfolio. In addition, certain country operations have been integrated into a regional operation for West Africa, leading to a reorientation of project preparation and causing some time overruns. The synergy and complementarity of national and regional actions for holistic modernization of hydromet services and systems have led to the amalgamation of some country operations into the larger regional operation. The lessons learned from these recent trends are that (i) a special consideration for hydromet modernization may remove the natural disadvantage of climate adaptation operations due to the relatively smaller size of the operation; (ii) greater ownership from country management units may be achieved through higher sensitization of the units; and (iii) the project preparation cycle of hydromet modernization projects is technically complex and involves multiple agencies in country and across the regions. This may be acknowledged upfront in country and regional operations, rather than an attempted oversimplification of project designs, to achieve limited results under the projects approach. Another lesson is that it is alluring to select the low-hanging fruits of hydromet value chain in hydrology, agrometeorology, or earth observation. But partial or selective treatment of some aspects of hydromet modernization has never been sustainable and should be avoided. The temptation of preferring quick-and-dirty and cheap substitutes that are unreliable or unviable alternatives to holistic modernization of national systems and services should be strongly countered. Planners should avoid the tendency to include simple and quick components of the hydromet value chain, while conveniently ignoring the complex and interdependent value chain of hydromet and early warning services. The program expects to receive funding from the GCF for the regional hydromet operation in West Africa; appraise and bring projects for West Africa to the World Bank Board; seek funding for regional organizations in the Sahel; and prepare feasibility studies for developing investment operations in other countries that have expressed strong demand. The Burkina Faso hydromet project is expected to be submitted for the Board’s consideration in September 2018. The US$31 million project, co-financed by the GCF (US$22.5 million) and the IDA (US$8.5 million), will support key producers and users of hydromet services, including the meteorological service, the National Directorate for Water Resources, the food security early warning system, and the Directorate General for Civil Protection. The West Africa Hydromet Modernization Project is expected to be presented to the Bank Board in FY19. Resource Mobilization • Progress underway toward target. • Good pipeline. IDA funding is leveraging contributions from GCF, the GEF Least Developed Countries’ Fund (GEF LDCF), the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Africa Caribbean Pacific–European Union Natural Disaster Reduction (GFDRR ACP-EU NDRR) Program, the Climate Investment Fund Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (CIF PPCR), and the Climate Risks Early Warning Systems Initiative (CREWS). GFDRR12 grants support coordination of the Africa hydromet program partnership convened by the Bank. They have helped to organize deep dive meetings of program partners (the World Bank, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the African Development Bank (AfDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the French Development Agency (ADF), and the World Food Programme) in Tokyo in September 2016; in Washington, DC, in December 2016; and in Saly, Senegal, in May 2017. Grants have helped organizers convene the Africa Hydromet Forum in Addis Ababa, co-hosted by the African Union Commission and the Federal 12 See the Prevention Web website, GFDRR web page, https://www.preventionweb.net/organizations/3388. 100 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development A critical hydropower plant brings energy to Mali. (Sarah Farhat) Government of Ethiopia, in September 2017. Subregional Hydromet Forums have met at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) level (September 2018) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) (November 2018). The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened their respective hydromet forums in the fiscal year. The Second Africa Hydromet Forum at the continental level is being planned for October 2019 at the African Union Commission headquarters in Addis Ababa. The CREWS Initiative allocated US$2.5 million to the Democratic Republic of Congo, US$2.75 million to Mali, and US$2.5 million to Niger for technical assistance. The resources are to be used to guide the countries in optimally using GEF, GCF, and IDA resources during implementation; developing cross-cutting decision support tools based on hydromet information; and making decisions about food security, agrometeorology, civil protection and early warning, and institutional strengthening. In Burkina Faso, a funding proposal was approved by the GCF in March 2018. The US$31 million project will be co-financed by the GCF (US$22.5 million) and IDA (US$8.5 million). It will support key producers and users of hydromet services, including the meteorological service, the hydrological service, the food security early warning system, the Directorate General for Civil Protection, and the national disaster risk reduction institution. The Bank prepared a similar feasibility study for hydromet and early warning services modernization for Chad and Togo. Chad, Togo, and Mali operations are under preparation under the regional operation for hydromet modernization in West Africa. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 101 12. Establishing an Africa Climate Resilient Investment Facility Context Climate change and climate shocks are expected to hit hardest in Africa. The Africa Climate Resilient Investment Facility (AFRI-RES) was established to strengthen the capacity of institutions (including national governments, river basin organizations, regional economic communities, and power pools) to plan, design, and implement investments in selected sectors to increase their resilience to climate change. The facility is a collaborative effort between the World Bank, the African Union Commission, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), and other partners in Africa. Expected outcomes include the development and application of robust technical guidelines for investment planning and design under climate uncertainty, establishment of an open data and knowledge platform for use in climate-resilient project design, strengthened capacity of project developers in the use of methodologies for managing climate risks in the planning and design of projects in key sectors, and delivery of technical advisory services to project developers at critical junctures in the project design process. Progress is summarized in table 12.1. AFRI-RES will support development of approaches that help understand climate risks, including the use of credible information and appropriate modeling tools to prepare Africa Table 12.1: Progress of World Bank Support for AFRI-RES, June 2018 Activity Progress • Creation of an open data and knowledge platform ACRIS III was held in Morocco in February 2018 with more • Development of guidelines for climate-resilient than 250 public and private sector participants. investment planning The annual work program was developed and endorsed • Compilation of good practices in the operation during the First Leadership Group meeting. of climate-vulnerable infrastructure TA support was provided, totaling US$1.05 million, to 14 • Planning and implementation of awareness- projects from seven GPs for the integration of climate risks raising activities into project design; and knowledge generation for broader outreach and dissemination. • Provision of on-demand advisory services to project developers Forward Look Develop good practice and guidelines for resilient planning for specific sectors and themes. Support knowledge forums and dissemination. Support ACRIS. Increase resource mobilization to close the funding gap (US$50 million target by 2020). Resource Mobilization • Work commenced with partners. • Resource mobilization continues. 102 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Women sell pineapple on the roadside in Kindia, Guinea. (World Bank/Vincent Tremeau) for the impacts of climate change and disaster risk reduction. Climate risk management informs the planning and design across different sectors and stages of decision making (e.g., from policy-level to sector-level planning to individual project design). Delivery includes project-level TA; outreach, dissemination, and training; development of guidelines, standards, and good practice notes for climate-resilient infrastructure investment; and the launching of an online climate knowledge and data portal. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 103 New ACBP Components 13. Promoting Climate-Smart Healthcare Context Climate change is the greatest global health threat of the 21st century with far-reaching consequences for human capital accumulation, labor productivity, and development (IPCC 2018). Through direct (e.g., floods) and indirect (e.g., social determinants) pathways, climate change significantly contributes to the number of people suffering from injuries, undernutrition, vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue, diarrhea, schistosomiasis), heat stress, and premature death. Sub-Saharan Africa is vulnerable to climate change health impacts because of three key challenges: (i) location and environmental characteristics; (ii) existing development challenges (e.g., highly variable food security, substandard water supply and sanitation infrastructure, fragile health systems, and wide-ranging socioeconomic and governance challenges (USAID 2017), which compound predicted impacts of climate change; (iii) lack of community-level capacity to respond or adapt to impacts of climate change, including low access to essential health services. Under these conditions, the region is projected to see an exponential rise in its already high health burden, particularly those related to undernutrition, infectious and chronic diseases, disaster risks, and pandemic threats. Moreover, catastrophic costs due to climate-related health shocks could push millions of Africans into further poverty. Table 13.1 summarizes the World Bank’s strategy to support African countries in mitigating the health impacts of climate change by moving toward the achievement of low-carbon and climate-resilient health systems (i.e., climate-smart healthcare) by 2030. This strategy will be achieved through the attainment of three objectives defined by the Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) Global Practice (GP). Support will be directed toward 20 high priority (HPC), 19 moderate priority (MPC), and five low priority (LPC) African “hotspot” countries13 (table 13.1). This plan will be adjusted as countries and financing agencies learn how to best approach these challenges together. World Bank plans to contribute to that learning through its Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) program and its operational experience, including ongoing World Bank–financed projects to refine tools and techniques to meet the climate and health challenges in the region. 13 Hotspot countries are African countries that already experience or are likely to experience a change in the burden of disease due to the impacts of climate change. 104 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 13.1: Support to HNP Programs HNP Climate and Health Strategic Objectives • Strengthen regional, national, and local institutional capacity for climate change adaptation and mitigation. • Implement climate adaptation and mitigation action. • Scale up investments to address climate change. Anticipated outcomes include the following • Understand country-specific health and health system risks associated with climate change. • Plan using evidence-based policy for health sector adaptation and mitigation to climate change. • Strengthen adaptive and resilience capacity at the regional, national, and local levels to enable African governments to prepare for, and effectively respond to, climate change threats to human health. • Expand advocacy and deepen partnerships at a regional level, and strengthen intersectoral governance and collaboration at the national level. • Implement and successfully scale-up climate-sensitive public health and environmental interventions by regional bodies and relevant national governments, building upon already existing public health and environmental programs, and promoting active involvement of local communities. • Increase investments in, and implementation of, low-carbon strategies at a regional and national level. Table B13.1.1 Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for Climate-Smart Health Programs Expected outcomes Activity Fast track (by 2023) Long term (by 2026) Longer term (by 2030) • All IDA/IBRD countries • Complete climate change • Complete climate change • Complete climate change conduct comprehensive and health diagnostics and and health diagnostics and and health diagnostics and climate change and resilience assessments of the resilience assessments of resilience assessments of health diagnostics, 20 HPCs. the 19 MPCs. the six LPCs. including an assessment of the climate resilience of the health system • Support IDA/IBRD • Prepare climate-resilient • Prepare climate-resilient • Prepare climate-resilient countries to increase strategies in all HPC based on strategies in all MPCs based strategies in all LPCs based core capacities on the diagnostics. on diagnostics. on diagnostics. sound management of • 50% HPCs with active WBG • 75% of HPCs and 50% • 100% of HPCs, 75% of public health risks related operations develop a capacity of MPCs with active MPCs and 50% of LPCs to climate change, building plan specific to WBG operations develop with active WBG operations and on mainstreaming climate change and health a capacity building plan develop a capacity of climate-sensitive adaptation specific to climate change building plan specific to diseases in health and health adaptation. climate change and health operations adaptation. • Strengthen governance, • All HPCs with active WBG • 50% of HPC with active • 100% of HPCs, 75% policy, and cross-sectoral operations designate a focal WBG operations implement of MPCs and 50% of collaboration point in the ministry of health. capacity building plan. LPCs with active WBG • Provide TA on multisectoral • All MPCs with active WBG operations develop a governance and policy actions operations designate a capacity building plan to all HPCs with active WBG focal point in the ministry of specific to climate change operations. health. and health adaptation. • Provide TA on multisectoral • All LPCs with active WBG governance and policy operations designate a actions to all MPCs with focal point in the ministry of active WBG operations. health. • Provide TA on multisectoral governance and policy actions to all LPCs with active WBG operations Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 105 Table 13.1: Support to HNP Programs (continued) Expected outcomes Activity Fast track (by 2023) Long term (by 2026) Longer term (by 2030) • Strengthen governance, • 50% of HNP operations • 10 HPCs with HNP • 15 HPCs and 8 MPCs policy, and cross-sectoral include climate-smart health engagements effectively with HNP engagements collaboration interventions. (per established criteria) effectively (per established • Ensure that HNP implement climate- resilient criteria) implement climate- operations address strategies. resilient strategies. climate change • 55% of HNP operations • 65% of HNP operations (adaptation and include climate-smart health include climate-smart health mitigation), where interventions. interventions. appropriate • Increase investments to • IBRD/IDA average (FY19–23) • IBRD/IDA average (FY19– • IBRD/IDA average (FY19– address climate change financing: 10% of total 25) financing: 15% of total 30) financing: 18% of total commitments include climate commitments include commitments include co-benefits. climate co-benefits. climate co-benefits. Country prioritization The WBG compared the Health and Human habitat vulnerability subindexes of the ND-GAIN country index for 2014 to identify African countries that are already experiencing, or are likely to experience, a change in the burden of disease due to the impacts of climate change (i.e., hotspot countries) (World Bank 2017c). Based on this assessment, countries were prioritized as follows: • High priority country (HPC), if they are highly vulnerable to health and habitat impacts of climate change: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Niger, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, São Tomé and Principe, Sierra Leone, Togo, Zambia. • Moderate priority country (MPC), if they are highly vulnerable to health risks: Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe) or habitat risk (Angola, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon. • Low priority country (LPC), if they exhibit a lower vulnerability to health or habitat risks: South Africa, Namibia, Algeria, Cabo Verde, Botswana, Swaziland. Main partners Resource mobilization Funding National and subnational governments led by Ministries of Source Amount (US$, millions) Health, Environment, Water, Finance, Agriculture, Urban Domestic sources 0 planning, WHO Africa Regional Office, Africa CDC, African Union, University of Notre Dame, Institute for Health IDAa 1,000 Metrics and Evaluation, WMO, and UNEP-WHO health Climate finance trust funds 15 and environment strategic alliance, local NGOs, other Other development finance 200 development partners, e.g., UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP, USAID, (bilaterals, multilaterals) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Private sector n.a. To be determined n.a. Total fast track (resources 1,215 raised by 2025) Longer term (additional 2,430 resources raised by 2030) a. Financing subject to country prioritization from IDA allocations. 106 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Sectoral Background and Development Challenges While much progress has been made, health systems across the region remain under pressure. Sub-Saharan Africa is still grappling with the unfinished business of the Millennium Development Goals, particularly the goals of reducing maternal and child mortality, malnutrition, and infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. As African countries become more prosperous and embrace urbanization and the subsequent health and lifestyle adjustments, chronic diseases facing donor countries are more prevalent, such as diabetes and heart disease, which are now claiming more African lives than ever before. In addition, pandemics and outbreaks have become more frequent, further weakening already weak health systems, with serious health, social, and economic consequences. The 2013 Ebola outbreak in West Africa was perhaps the most striking test to the resilience and sustainability of national health systems. With an understaffed and underpaid health workforce, limited financing, and weak infrastructure, health systems in the region are hugely unprepared for large-scale abrupt shocks. They require support to deliver accessible, affordable, and high-quality health services. Climate change is presenting new health threats, which may reverse decades of progress in improving health outcomes. Climate variability and change is expected to adversely affect health throu direct pathways. Extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, cause injuries, deaths, and outbreaks of food-, vector, - and waterborne diseases (e.g., diarrhea). An increase in the number of very hot days in large cities, along with forest fires and dust storms, adversely impact air quality and exacerbate the occurrence and intensity of diseases associated with elevated temperatures (e.g., heat exhaustion and heat strokes) and respiratory diseases (e.g., asthma attacks) (Serdeczny et al. 2015). For example, in Ghana high ambient temperatures have been associated with an increase in mortality, particularly in young children and the elderly (Azongo et al. 2012) while flooding in Kenya in 2018 claimed the lives of 170 people, displaced 300,000 and saw more than 700 people admitted to health facilities with cholera (MSF 2018). Indirect health impacts of climate change occur through effects on ecosystems. Drought conditions affect the availability and quality of water, which has been linked to illnesses such as diarrhea and tropical diseases. Agricultural losses have an impact on the availability and affordability of nutritious food, leading to undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. In addition to the reduction in crop productivity, the impact of climate change on other drivers of stunting (e.g., water quality and quantity, labor productivity of women, and disease distribution) will increase its prevalence (World Bank 2015b). For example, in Niger, children aged two or less born during a drought are 72 percent more likely to be stunted (Kristin et al. 2010). And despite the already high prevalence of stunting in Western (31.4 percent), Central (32.5 percent) and Eastern Africa (36.7 percent), climate change is predicted to contribute an additional 7.5 million stunted children by 2030 (WHO 2014b). The rates of severe stunting, a condition associated with a slightly more than fourfold increased risk of death in children under five, is projected to increase in Eastern and Southern Africa by 55 percent, and Central Africa by 23 percent (Lloyd, Kovats, and Chalabi 2011). Seasonal variations in rainfall distribution and temperature and habitat degradation are predicted to cause a resurgence Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 107 of older diseases (e.g., Rift Valley fever) and change patterns of more prevalent diseases like malaria, dengue, and Ebola (IPCC 2018).14 The rates of Malaria are projected to increase for Eastern, Central and Southern Africa. For East Africa, estimates of additional people vulnerable to Malaria due to climate change range from 40 million to 80 million under 2° warming and 70 million to 170 million under 4° warming (Caminade et al. (2014). Other indirect health impacts occur due to disruptions in social processes (e.g., leading to population displacement and conflict); and economies (e.g., impact on national economies and infrastructure limit the provision of health and other services). Communities and populations of all incomes are vulnerable to climate-related health risks, with the most at-risk groups being women, young children, the elderly, people with preexisting health conditions or disabilities and poor or marginalized households (IPCC 2018). These climate-related health impacts will exacerbate existing poor health outcomes, adding excess burdens to already weak health systems. While research capacity for monitoring and projecting the health impacts of climate change is limited, the World Health Organization (WHO 2014b) estimates that there will be approximately 241,000 additional climate change-related deaths in the year 2030, with the greatest share coming from Sub-Saharan Africa (approximately 157,000). Human Capital and Economic Costs of Climate Change Human capital refers to an aggregated level of education, skills, resilience, and health that people accumulate over their lives, which enable them to contribute to the economic productivity of a country (World Bank 2018). Human capital is a principle driver of growth and is attributed with cross-country differences to account for 10 percent to 30 percent of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The World Bank’s Human Capital Project (HCP) has reignited discussions around the critical need to invest in human capital to promote economic growth. The HCP seeks to determine how much human capital a child born today can expect to attain by the end of secondary school, given the risks of poor health and education that prevail in the country where she or he is born. One of the ways that this can be quantified is through an international metric called the Human Capital Index (HCI), which measures the amount of human capital that the average child in each country, born in 2018, expects to achieve. A precursor to human capital accumulation is good health; people learn more effectively and are more productive when they are healthy. Climate change is projected to increase the prevalence of stunting in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the burden of disease, including malaria, diarrhea, and respiratory infection in children under five years old (Paynter et al. 2010). Sick children spend less time in school than healthy ones, and stunted children 14 This includes changes in the geographic range of the disease, seasonality, and intensity of transmission. 108 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development have delayed cognitive development, which reduces their capacity to learn. Moreover, the projected increase in climate-related morbidity and premature deaths in adults could have a catastrophic impact on labor productivity. Natural disasters damage and destroy schools, thereby impeding access to education, while heat stress reduces cognitive performance and disrupts learning. These effects are expected to be more profound in Africa, which is both a warmer region and has limited climate-controlled buildings. Failure to implement adaptation and resilience mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of climate change on health and education outcomes could lead to a significant reduction in the number of skilled and productive workers entering and remaining in the workforce in the future. The economic costs of climate-related health impacts are projected to be enormous. WHO estimates that the direct damage cost to health could reach US$2 billion to US$4 billion per year by 2030 (WHO 2018). Moreover, millions of people could be pushed into poverty as a result of heath expenditures, lost labor income due to illness or injury and long-term impact on productivity due to disability (Hallegatte et al. 2016). One study projects that the additional costs associated with the excess disease burden related to climate-sensitive diseases (malaria, diarrheal illnesses, and malnutrition) could be between US$4 billion to US$12 billion in 2030 under a 750 parts per million scenario (Ebi 2016). At the household level, climate-sensitive diseases impose an immense financial burden, particularly for the poorest households. For example, under climate change conditions, the burden of diarrhea is projected to increase by up to 10 percent, and each episode can cost as much as US$2 to US$4 for treatment, coupled with the loss of three to seven days of work each for the sick individual and caregiver. Moreover, in Malawi, malaria treatment represents 2 percent of monthly income for the average household, but 28 percent for poor households (Hallegatte et al. 2016). Health Sector Contribution to Climate Change The health sector contributes to climate change because it emits carbon for its operations. While there is no estimate yet as to the carbon footprint of the African health sector, extrapolations project the health sector may contribute between 3 percent to 5 percent to the regions’ greenhouse gas (GHG_ emissions based on figures from South Africa and other low-income countries (LICs). Ironically, hospitals in Sub-Saharan Africa, while emitting carbon, also experience energy starvation. One study reveals that among 11 African countries assessed, only 28 percent had reliable electricity, which therefore leads many hospitals to use generators and other fossil fuel intensive sources (Adair-Rohani et al. 2013). Energy is critical in the provision of healthcare; therefore this situation can leapfrog healthcare systems to adopt clean renewable energy, such as solar and wind, to protect the climate, promote health, and advance multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hospitals should develop resilience strategies to implement sustainable policies on waste management, procurement, and transportation that will withstand extreme weather events and other climate change impacts. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 109 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience African governments have demonstrated a strong political commitment to curbing the impact of climate change on health outcomes. Through the adoption of the Libreville Declaration (2008), and the Luanda commitments (2010), 51 African countries committed to implementing an essential public health package to enhance the climate resilience of the health sector. Furthermore, at least 15 Sub-Saharan African countries include health as a priority in their National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs). However, implementation has been hampered by institutional barriers, resource constraints, insufficient technical capacity, and other challenges (WHO Africa 2014). The World Bank supports the ambitious goals of its clients. Moreover, its engagement on climate change and health aligns with its commitment to support client countries accelerate investments in human capital. World Development Report (WDR) 2019: The Changing Nature of Work (World Bank 2019) demonstrates that to sustain current economic growth trajectories and remain competitive in the global economy, When communities gain access African countries will need a workforce prepared for the to running water, sanitation and hygiene are immediately highly skilled jobs of the future. This can happen if the improved. (Shutterstock/ impacts of climate change on human capital are moderated Ricardo Mayer) through critical investments. The World Bank supports African governments’ commitments toward universal health coverage (UHC). Synergies between UHC and climate health are defined in Climate Change and Health Approach and Action Plan (World Bank 2017c). The integration of low-carbon and climate-resilient healthcare into countries’ UHC strategies (i.e., climate-smart UHC) will allow African countries to (i) establish systems for fair, efficient, and sustainable financing of Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) services that are adaptable (i.e., flexible and scalable); (ii) ensure equitable access to affordable and resilient quality HNP services; and (iii) leverage climate-smart interventions in other sectors to strengthen HNP results and generate public goods. At a strategic level, the World Bank Group has stimulated climate-smart healthcare action by raising awareness on the health effects of climate change in global discussions and through generating knowledge on the relationship between climate change and health (World Bank 2014; World Bank 2015c). It has highlighted opportunities for investing in low-carbon solutions and has supported greater climate resilience across the health sector. 110 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development With partners, the World Bank Group has developed tools and approaches to help guide countries on climate-smart healthcare investments that mitigate climate change impacts. These include strategies to provide reliable, low-carbon sources of energy (WHO/World Bank 2014); regional assessments on geographic hotspots, methodological guidance on vulnerability and risk assessments at a national and subnational level, and an operational framework on how to strengthen human, animal, and environmental public health systems. The World Bank has encouraged all HNP projects to become more climate smart, including articulating expected climate co-benefits in their designs. The new Environmental and Social Framework also addresses climate and health risks. Since 2017, all projects supported by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA) (including those in HNP) require screening to determine the degree that climate change will impact project outcome and success. For example, an in-depth evaluation of climate change and health vulnerability in Madagascar led to an investment of US$2.6 million in climate-sensitive health interventions. The HNP Africa Climate and Health Strategy (2018–30) builds on the analytical and operational experience gained over the years to support Sub-Saharan African countries reduce the impact of climate change on all aspects of health, strengthen the climate resilience of their health systems, and contribute toward climate change mitigation (box 13.1). Box 13.1 Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Health Systems in West Africa The World Bank’s Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement Series of Projects (REDISSE), launched in 2016, enhances disease surveillance in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). These projects aim to strengthen surveillance and early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases. The program stems from the World Bank’s mobilization of more than US$1.6 billion in financing associated with the West African Ebola outbreak. It builds upon the Ebola response and recovery efforts to establish core country and regional capacities to help build a resilient, broad-based disease surveillance and response system, based on intercountry collaboration and collective action. The projects’ designs re- flect a paradigm shift from a program grounded in crisis response to one that embraces a health disaster risk reduction approach and better risk management to rapidly detect and respond to biological hazards of national and international concern. This reduces the burden of diseases, and it aids in mitigating the public health and economic risks posed by infectious diseases in humans and animals. The program helps to improve disease surveillance infrastructure, information sharing, and collaboration across the health, agriculture, and environmental sectors in West Africa. It is part of health synergies in a region expe- riencing rapid population growth, increasing climate instability, changing agricultural production systems, widespread deforestation, natural resource depletion, and environmental pollution and degradation. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 111 A young girl attends school in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (Shutterstock/Anca Miloshev) 14. Promoting Climate-Smart Education Context Education is a critical part of long-term efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change: it is the vehicle by which greater awareness and behavior change can occur. As such, increased resources to support climate-smart initiatives in the sector are important across Africa. Efforts should target climate-smart education infrastructure (e.g., construction and rehabilitation of schools, teacher dorms, facilities, and equipment); integration of relevant climate change topics into the curriculum; introduction of climate change issues into teacher training (preservice or in-service); technical and vocational training to develop skills in fields important for addressing climate change (e.g., renewable energy); strengthened research in climate change innovation and higher education policies (e.g., hydrometeorological risk analysis, agroclimatology). Table 14.1 summarizes how the Education component will help to reduce the climate change impact and support knowledge generation and capacity building in climate change. Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Climate change is increasingly impeding children’s access to education and their learning environment, leaving those in poorest communities with serious long-term consequences. 112 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 14.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for Climate-Smart Education Baseline Expected outcomes Activities (FY19)a (share of projects approved in previous FY) Fast track (by Long term (by Longer term 2023) (%) 2026) (%) (by 2030) (%) Climate-smart infrastructureb Construct and rehabilitate schools, teacher dorms, 2/10 (20%) 40c 60 80 facilities, equipment Curriculum development and reform Integrate relevant climate change topics 1/10 (10%) 30d 50 70 into curriculum Pre- and in-service teacher training 3/11 (27%) 50e 70 90 Introduce climate change issues Technical and vocational training skills acquisition Develop skills in fields important 0/2 (0%) 20f 40 60 for addressing climate change (e.g., renewable energy) Technical expertise (tertiary) Strengthen research in climate change innovation and policy in higher 0/2 (0%) 20g 40 60 education (e.g., hydrometeorological risk analysis, agroclimatology) Resource Main partners mobilization Funding WBG client countries; EU; DFID; AFD; UNICEF; GIZ; WFP; Target increase (%) 2 3 4 Danida; JICA; ECOWAS FY19 2023 2026 2030 IDA 1,026 20.52 30.78 41.04 Trust funds 59 1.18 1.77 2.36 Target amounts 21.7 32.55 43.4 a. Denominator is total number of projects approved in FY18. b. Climate-smart education infrastructure may include the following construction guidelines for schools to review and update standards for safe and sustainable buildings in areas prone to droughts and natural disasters and to improve the learning environment by constructing new buildings that incorporate good practices to improve resilience to climate hazards. It may include mitigation activities such as constructing or retrofitting education facilities to be substantially more energy efficient than the prevalent standard in the area (e.g., conducting energy audits, installing solar panels, using energy efficient water harvesting and recycling for facilities in arid climates, drainage improvement and terracing for flood control, using roofing material that can sustain strong winds and rains). c. Denominator is total number of projects approved in FY18 with theme “access” in standard reports. d. Denominator is total number of projects approved in FY18 with theme “standards, curriculum, and textbooks” in standard reports. e. Denominator is total number of projects approved in FY18 with theme “teachers” in standard reports. f. Denominator is total number of projects approved in FY18 with sector “Workforce Development and Vocational Education” in standard reports. g. Denominator is total number of projects approved in FY18 with sector “Tertiary Education” in standard reports. Natural disasters (e.g., the floods in Sierra Leone in August of 2017) damage and destroy schools, thereby eliminating access and the presence of a safe school environment. In addition, reduced agricultural productivity, due to droughts and temperature shocks, make it difficult for parents to send their children to school in light of competing demands for limited financial resources. The issue is particularly challenging in rural Sub-Saharan Africa (Randell and Gray 2016). Household survey results show that early life climatic conditions—milder temperatures during all seasons and increased summer rainfall—are associated with Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 113 an increased likelihood of children completing their education. Further, greater summer rainfall during both early life and school ages is associated with completing various levels of schooling as well as with attending school at the time of the survey. These findings suggest that future climate change may reduce children’s school participation in rural areas, and thereby slowing progress toward human development goals and poverty alleviation. Climate change impacts some vulnerable groups more than others. Females are more vulnerable, which poses additional challenges to their education and therefore their long-term prosperity. During adverse weather conditions, such as rainfall-driven floods or droughts, girls are often the first to be withdrawn from school or attend less frequently due to perceived safety hazards (reduced transportation options in heavy rains) and increased demand on their time for household responsibilities, such as fetching water (Kwauk and Braga 2017). In recent years, and especially during FY18, the World Bank’s Education sector has introduced measures to help client countries build systems with greater resilience to climate risks. Examples include school infrastructure projects that use climate-adaptable designs, solar power that can be essential during grid failures, water recycling and harvesting, and other green building technologies. These measures are part of school construction design standards. For example, the Tanzania Education Program for Results (P162479) employs a climate-smart design so construction and retrofitting of education facilities are substantially more energy efficient than the prevalent standard in the area (e.g., energy audits, solar panels, and energy efficient appliances and equipment). Education offers an important vehicle for short- and long-term responses to climate change. Investing in climate-resilient and adaptable infrastructure enables continued education during times of extreme conditions. Reforming curriculums to incorporate education on effects of climate change at primary, secondary, and tertiary levels give students the knowledge and skills to make informed decisions about how to adapt their lives and ecological, social, or economic systems in a changing environment. Building this awareness among future generations is the most sustainable mechanism in instilling long-term changes in attitudes and behavior. Through revision of learning curriculums and teacher training, the sector has incorporated climate mitigation and adaptation into its primary and secondary education curricula. The Cameroon Education Reform Support Project (P160926) integrates climate change mitigation and adaptation into teacher training materials. The project also supports teacher training on how to prepare and carry out evacuations at the onset of climate-induced emergencies, such as cyclones and floods. At a regional level, the sector has helped to develop long-term solutions. The Eastern and Southern Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence (P151847) have dedicated research grants for technologies, processes, and policies contributing to climate change mitigation (e.g., agroforestry, carbon sequestration) and adaptation (e.g., hydrometeorological risk analysis, agroclimatology). The Africa Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund for Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology Project (P165581) supports stronger research in areas contributing to climate change innovation and adaptation (box 14.1). 114 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development In the technical and vocational subsector, the Bank has supported the shift from traditional skills acquisition to more modern ones, including trainings that focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and environmental preservation. These skills are not only beneficial for building resilience but are drivers for economic growth in the target countries as they replace outdated markets. For example, the Niger Skills Development for Growth Project AF (P163467) supports technical and vocational training for skills in high demand areas. Box 14.1 Africa Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund for Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology The Africa Regional Scholarship and Innovation Fund (RSIF) for Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology project (P165581) provides support to strengthen the institutional capacity for quality and sustainable doctoral training, research, and innovation in transformative technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Host institutions will develop technical and institutional capacity for research and innovation in climate-related fields. For instance, the RSIF PhD program at the center for Climate Change, Biodiversi- ty, and Sustainable Agriculture at the University Félix Houphouët-Boigny (Côte d’Ivoire) focuses on bio- diversity, food security, and energy. The center offers programs on climate change, including (i) climate change risk analysis, evaluation, and management (climatic data, air pollution, water, soil, pesticides), (ii) agroclimatology, (iii) modeling, (iv) mitigation strategies for climate change (carbon sequestration), (v) agrobiodiversity and agroforestry systems, (vi) dissemination of agricultural technical innovations using information and communication techniques accessible to farmers, and (vii) adaptation of crop calen- dars to climate variability. The regional coordination unit will build a knowledge base on climate change through development of cross-cutting courses on climate change for PhD scholars and faculty. In addition, the IT vendors for the project will submit disaster and risk mitigation plans and provide training on emergencies on climate change and disaster risks to system operators. Increased efforts to address climate change in the education sector are highlighted through corporate-level climate co-benefits. In FY18, the Africa Education Portfolio saw a fivefold increase in its commitments with direct climate co-benefits (from US$1 million in FY17 to US$5 million in FY18). In internal efforts, the Human Development VPU organized a climate change working group across its three Global Practices (Education; Health, Nutrition, and Population [HNP]; and Social Protection and Jobs [SPJ]) to coordinate efforts on climate change. A key output from this group was the preparation of an Human Development guidance note with practical case examples for task teams. Moving forward, the objective is to further build the partnership with the Climate Change Group and establish a focal point to provide technical support and assistance to education operational teams and provide customized training on the methodology of incorporating climate considerations into project design. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 115 15. Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness Context The Paris Climate Accord of 2015 sets an ambitious objective to keep the temperature increase well below 2°C. The IPCC Special Report (2018) underscores the need to keep warming to below 1.5°C to reduce the scale of climate impacts. Low-income countries (LICs) and upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) must transition to low-carbon and climate resilience to meet this goal and to brace for intensified climate impacts. Failing to keep temperatures below 2°C, or at 1.5°C, as indicated by the IPCC Special Report (2018), will cause negative social and economic externalities that will have spillover effects on the financial sector’s deepening and stability. Given the burden of fiscal pressure on countries, mobilizing private capital and financial institutions is essential to support the investment needed for the transition. For emerging markets only, the investment needs to be financed by 2030 are US$23 trillion! Therefore, financial institutions and the financial system can mobilize capital for long- term investments while taking social responsibility through environmentally sustainable development. In addition, client countries have more appetite for socially responsible investment, which contributes to financial institutions’ engagement. The financial sector needs to meet these steep challenges in connecting the supply of finance (e.g., long-term resource and adequate products and services) with the demand for both individuals and firms, because those industries are projected to be responsible for 26 percent of the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2005 to 2030 (World Bank 2015e). Firms need to increase competitiveness by adopting of climate- efficient solutions and clean technology, particularly in agriculture and tourism sectors, which are most affected by climate change. The World Bank supports climate engagement and solutions in the financial system through priority activities that seek to mainstream climate risks into policies and regulations, standards, and frameworks governing the financial sector; improve financial protection against climate-related risks; and promote firm green competitiveness. Activities and outcomes for this new Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) component are summarized in table 15.1. Action will be prioritized on three fronts. 116 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 15.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness Expected outcomes Long term Longer term Activity Fast track (by 2023) (by 2026) (by 2030) • Build a better understanding • A report on the impact of climate change on financial • Conduct two • Conduct five of links between climate sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa. more climate risk climate risk and related environmental • Conduct climate risk assessment in financial sector in assessments in assessments in factors with local financial two countries and one country program that integrates financial sector financial sector sectors in Africa through green elements into local banking, capital markets, and and develop two and develop research, data collection, pension funds. more country four country and dissemination programs that programs that Development outcomes (similar for each period): integrate green integrate green workshops • Transfer knowledge on green financial systems, elements into local elements into • Conduct climate risk in raising awareness on climate-related financial risks banking, capital banking, capital financial sector assessment and opportunities among financial policy makers, markets, and markets, and and develop projects that regulators, and market participants. pension funds. pension funds. promote and integrate green elements (including • Align financial sector policies, regulations, and strategies green policies, regulations, with NDCs and climate adaptation strategies. investment, and risk • Increase climate share of investments in a client country, management practices, contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation targets. data sources or financial • Increase capacity to manage and reduce climate- and instruments) into banking, carbon-related financial risks by supervisors and capital markets, and pension financial institutions, thus contributing to improve funds to promote green national financial stability in the context of climate financial systems nationally events and policy changes. • Cover more countries with • Cover three more countries with new or improved • Cover six more • Cover 10 more new or improved financial financial protection instruments, including insurance, risk countries with countries with protection instruments, pools, and contingent finance. new or improved new or improved including insurance, risk Development outcomes (similar for each period) financial protection financial pools, and contingent finance instruments, protection • Strengthen institutional capacity to integrate financial including instruments, (baseline 2018: 23) protection in fiscal and budget planning through policy insurance, risk including measures, investment decisions, and the development pools, and insurance, risk of a broader menu of financial solutions. contingent finance pools, and • Strengthen technical capacity to design and implement contingent appropriate financial instruments through technical finance. assistance and the development of tools to inform decision making. • Increase financial capacity to respond to climate shocks through the design and implementation of an appropriate financial protection strategy, which includes an efficient combination of financial instruments to optimize the timing and minimize the cost of response. • Integrate risk financing and insurance solutions within preparedness, response, and recovery plans anchored in country systems. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 117 Kenyan Farmers create cooperatives and build capacity and credit for climate smart agriculture. (World Bank) Table 15.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support for Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness (continued) Expected outcomes Long term Longer term Activity Fast track (by 2023) (by 2026) (by 2030) • Increase green • Release report on climate resilience of industries and • Develop • Develop competitiveness and industrial infrastructure. 10 country 20 country innovation in climate-related • Develop five country programs that integrate green programs that programs that advancements and protection competitiveness into their growth strategies. integrate green integrate green against climate impacts competitiveness competitiveness Development outcomes (similar for each period) into their growth into their growth • Increase capacity of industries to contribute to climate strategies. strategies. solutions in tourism, agribusiness, and manufacturing. • Ensure that industries and their supporting infrastructure are resilient to climate disasters. Resource Main partners Funding mobilization Sustainable Banking Network, IFC, WRI, GIZ, Global Program on Sustainability, Network for Estimated budget needs for TA activities: Greening the Financial Sector, WBG countries, IMF US$1 million by 2023, US$1.7 million by GFDRR, ACP-EU NDRR, SIDA, USAID, DFID, Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2026, US$3.1 million by 2030. UNIDO, GIZ, JICA, Government of Korea, WEF, IFC clients Estimated budget for TA activities from bilateral and multilateral development finance sources: US$9 million by 2023, US$14.8 million by 2026, US$22 million by 2030. Estimated budget for lending: US$210 million by 2030 from country IDA allocations. Estimated budget needs TA activities: US$25 million; lending: US$200 million. 118 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Develop country programs and projects that promote and integrate green elements into banking, capital markets, and pension funds. The financial sector in many African countries lacks capacity, yet this represents an opportunity to integrate climate considerations at an early stage and to align their financial sector with long-term climate goals. The World Bank Group is committed to assist African countries in alignment efforts and in designing country programs that will promote and integrate green elements—including green policies, regulations, investment and risk management practices, data sources, and financial instruments—into banking, capital markets, and pension funds. Initial steps can support countries with research and assessments of climate-related financial risks and opportunities. These analytics can raise awareness among financial policy makers, regulators, and market participants on how their financial sector interacts with climate change and help guide them with how to respond. Based on better analytics, the World Bank intends to offer technical assistance for implementing green finance solutions and instruments at the country level. This could include supporting regulators to incorporate climate risks in their supervisory frameworks, issuing green bonds at the country level, supporting the setup of dedicated green investment funds, and supporting pension funds and sovereign wealth funds in incorporating environment, social, and governance performance standards in their investments. Over the past few years, African countries have incorporated green elements in their financial system (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria) (box 15.1). There is an opportunity to leapfrog African countries into green economies, especially those whose markets and financial systems are nascent or nonexistent. As such, the objective is to develop four country programs that integrate green elements into banking, capital markets, and pension funds by 2030. Box 15.1 Green Elements in Banking and Capital Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa African central banks, regulators, and banking associations are active participants in global discussions and knowledge exchange platforms on green and sustainable finance. For example, the Sustainable Banking Network, a World Bank–supported knowledge exchange platform, includes four representa- tions from Sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa. Nigeria was the first African country to issue a sovereign green bond in December 2017. The proceeds of the five-year US$30 million sovereign bond are to be used for environmental purposes only. Kenya’s Bankers As- sociation introduced Sustainable Finance Guiding Principles in 2015. Nairobi Securities Exchange and development partners launched a Green Bond program in 2017. Cover more countries with new or improved financial protection instruments, including insurance, risk pools, and contingent finance. Through the Africa Disaster Risk Financing Initiative (ADRF), the World Bank supports the development of multirisk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions and to mitigate the socioeconomic, fiscal, and financial impacts of disasters, thereby increasing climate resilience. ADRF works in Benin, Cabo Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 119 Box 15.2 Contingency Financing in the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund The World Bank–financed Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF) III project has a US$12 million disaster risk finance component. It provides additional postdisaster support to vulnerable households by automatically scaling up the NUSAF III’s Labor Intensive Public Works’ activities during crises to build resilience of beneficiary households. The 2016 El Niño caused widespread drought in the Karamoja region. The parametric index developed under the NUSAF project captured the drought and triggered a scaling up of the Labor Intensive Public Works. As a result, US$4.1 million was disbursed to finance di- saster assistance to approximately 30,000 households, or 150,000 people, in Karamoja. It is estimated that the disaster risk finance component of NUSAF III will finance the cost of scaling up to aid 80,000 additional households (400,000 people) over the lifetime of the operation. Box 15.3 Cat-DDO Approved for Kenya Extreme climatic events have long threatened development progress in Kenya, where 84 percent of the land is classified as arid or semi-arid, and where droughts and floods are estimated to cost the econo- my over 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) each year, on average. In June 2018, the World Bank approved a US$200 million Development Policy Loan (DPL) with a Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat-DDO) for Kenya. This innovative contingent line of credit provides immediate liquidity in the aftermath of a disaster resulting from an adverse natural event. The Cat-DDO is the first World Bank development policy operation in Kenya in the last 10 years and will be a foundation for policy dialogue and support the Government of Kenya’s proactive efforts to manage disaster and climate risks with a comprehensive program of reforms. Preparing this instrument involved discussing prior actions between the ADRF team and the govern- ment to strengthen the country’s institutional, technical, and financial capacity to manage the impact of natural hazards, and to improve the country’s fiscal resilience. As one prior action, the government approved the National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy. This marks the first DRF strategy to be imple- mented in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the project received 100 percent climate co-benefits. This milestone paves the way for other countries to develop similar instruments and develop risk financing strategies. Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The team is looking to deepen its engagement in countries where it has operations and expand where demand exists. Box 15.2 and box 15.3 highlight successful examples of these initiatives. The World Bank Global Index Insurance Facility (GIIF) provides access to finance to smallholder farmers, microentrepreneurs, and microfinance institutions through the development and growth of local markets for indexed and catastrophic insurance. Its goal is to foster sustainable development in the agricultural sector in LICs. GIIF has trained practitioners from Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Zambia (box 15.4). The program has also extended capacity building grants to six insurers in Zambia, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, and an insurance intermediary in Kenya. The region will seek to advance this work through expanded protection coverage in 10 more countries. 120 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 15.4 Impact of GIIF-Facilitated Training in Nigeria and Zambia Nigeria’s insurance industry had been trying for years, unsuccessfully, to secure licenses to offer index insurance products. After participating in a GIIF training session in Ghana in May 2017, the Nigerian insurance regulator—equipped with the necessary skills to evaluate such products—issued licenses to five companies in August 2017. Four of the five companies issued policies to 15,000 farmers in the July through October season, helping them manage their risk and giving them access to bank loans and guarantees. Following another training for insurance professionals, held in Lagos in February 2018, the regulator announced its intention to issue licenses for weather-based index insurance to 15 additional companies by the end of 2018, with the aim of promoting competitiveness and insuring millions of households in the next two to three years. This process will unlock access to finance and protecting farmers against the effects of climate-related shocks. In Zambia, Mayfair Insurance has been a GIIF performance-based grantee since March 2016, with the objective of reaching about 100,000 farmers by 2019. After participating in a GIIF-facilitated training session in Ghana, Mayfair and the Zambia insurance regulator convinced the government to bundle index insurance to the farmer input subsidy program. As a result, an insurance policy was issued, cov- ering 900,000 farmers by February 2018. This is the first time a GIIF program has been able to cover more than 500,000 farmers in one season. It testifies to the need for public-private partnerships and that trainings should target both insurers and regulators. Increase green competitiveness and innovation through climate-related investments while protecting industries against climate impacts. To remain competitive, industries and markets need to engage in sustainable practices and solutions, and the World Bank should help. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the need for economic growth is putting pressure on scarce resources, such as water. In Ethiopia, the World Bank is investigating how the textile industry can retain competitiveness while growing sustainably. This can also help Ethiopia enter European markets, which require higher standards on environmental compliance. In Mauritania, a cross–World Bank team is exploring ways to improve fish stock in Western Africa, while diminishing fish waste further down the value chain. Industries are at risk from the increased frequency of natural disasters, which directly affects their competitiveness and global value chains. Globally, economies are losing around US$330 billion annually due to climate disasters. In Africa, where industries are emerging, these impacts could be exacerbated in sectors such as tourism and agribusiness. Concrete measures can ensure that industry practices are changed and adapted. In Senegal, the World Bank is supporting a coastal reclamation project to secure the tourism industry. The World Bank has also launched a global study on identifying better methods of resilience in industries. Public and private sectors are leveraging entrepreneurship to grow climate technology markets, and entrepreneurs have deployed innovative climate technology solutions in LICs. The World Bank supports the deployment of climate innovation centers and climate venture funds in Africa to provide the technical and financial resources that entrepreneurs need to start and grow their businesses. By 2030, the objective is to develop 20 country programs that integrate green competitiveness into their growth strategies. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 121 16. Strategic and Systemic Engagement for NDCs The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement set the course for a global effort to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. It outlines enhanced support to assist low- income countries (LICs) achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions, adapt to climate change impacts, and meet its SDGs. Each Party is committed to prepare, communicate, and maintain successive NDCs that it intends to achieve. It is not, however, guaranteed that these national commitments will add up to the global targets. The IPCC 1.5°C Special Report (2018) states that the ambition level in NDCs falls short of countries keeping under 1.5°C. The intensification of the pace and scale of climate impacts, which could be felt as early as 2030, will be particularly challenging in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries have low capacities, yielding them especially vulnerable. Enhanced support for climate action is critical, because resilience to climate variability and change is vital to the region’s ability, among others,15 to reduce poverty and protect hard-earned development progress. Forty-eight countries have communicated their post- 2020 climate commitments and priority areas through their NDCs, including mitigation and adaptation actions. Countries are further expected to resubmit their NDCs in 2019 as part of a five-year cyclical, procedural (and legally binding) review in 2020. Countries must raise their level of ambition on NDCs, transform priorities and plans from paper to action, and shift to low-carbon, climate-resilient pathways. Governments need to embed and institutionalize climate considerations at national, regional, and local levels and across all sectors into planning and delivery mechanisms. They must address critical policy reforms and incentives to accelerate toward green economies. The new Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) component Strategic Support for NDCs seeks to mainstream climate change by expediting institutionalization of climate action for transformation at scale: across a country’s sectors and regions. This focus on the implementation of NDCs and country climate policies through direct client engagement will complement the Bank’s tactical upstream engagement; it is consistent and responsive to the Bank’s Corporate Post-2020 and Adaptation Action Plan, which calls to enhance mainstreaming and implementation of NDCs. Key action areas and outcomes are summarized in table 16.1. 15 Examples include improving project quality, a reduction in corruption (as reflected in the Corruption Perception Indices of Transparency International), and a removal of business distortions as measured by the World Bank Doing Business Indicator database. 122 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 16.1: Strategic and Investment Engagement in NDCs Expected outcomes Activities Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) Cost (US$) • Integrate NDCs in SCDs and • 100% • 100% • 100,000 per SCD upstream analytics. • Deepen integration of NDCs • 20% CPFs with • 40% CPFs with • 30,000 per CPF and climate actions into CPFs NDC goals in results NDC goals in results through assessments. framework framework • Develop project pipelines • 15% projects with • 30% projects with • 200,000 per corresponding to needs and direct linkages to NDC direct linkages to NDC investment priorities in the CPF supporting implementation goals implementation goals NDC implementation. • Mainstream and institutionalize • Five countries where • 10 countries where the • 1 million to 5 country-level NDC engagement the WBG is engaged in WBG is engaged in million per country with ministries of finance and country NDC strategic country NDC strategic engagement and TA planning to mainstream and dialogue and TA dialogue and TA institutionalize climate change based on country demand. • Conduct sectoral and strategic • Five countries where • 10 countries where • 300,000 to 500,000 assessments and TA support the WBG is supporting the WBG is supporting per country based on country demand. assessment and TA assessment and TA Resource mobilization Partners US$8 million to US$10 million per year for fast track; US$15 million to US$20 million per year for longer- Ministries of finance, planning, environment, and line agencies, term track. NDC Support Facility, NDC Partnership, bilateral aid agencies Sources: NDC Support Facility; others: bilateral funds, PPIAF, other trust funds. The African region is making important strides on linkages with NDCs at multiple levels, with broad geographical coverage. One route is through Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs) and Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs). Projects are supporting the implementation of countries’ NDCs through linkages at strategic, project, or results framework levels. There is also client engagement through policy dialogue and linkages with investments. The ongoing process of NDC reviews offers further opportunities for support, revision of current ambitions of country targets, and enhanced quality of implementation roadmaps. By 2020, countries will need to report on their NDC progress and raise the ambition of their commitments, if needed, to meet the goal of a 2°C world under the Paris Accord. As we transition closer to this deadline, the World Bank needs a better reflection on how its projects are linked and contribute to NDCs. A revised reporting will allow countries to assess gaps and opportunities to support prioritization of the World Bank’s pipeline. In addition to engagement through project planning and design processes, there is considerable scope for assisting African countries to establish key “soft component” activities needed for the implementation of their NDCs, including the establishment of robust institutional frameworks and coordination mechanisms; development of measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems for emission reductions targets; development of NDC implementation and investment plans; and mobilization of climate finance, including the private sector, for adaptation and mitigation actions. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 123 The Bank’s engagement with at least eight countries in the region is addressing these issues (table 16.2). Ongoing work in Uganda—the first African country to have an NDC Partnership Plan to mainstream climate-budget tagging and climate-risk screening into national processes—has the potential to transform and institutionalize climate action at scale.16 As an implementing partner of the NDC Partnership,17 the World Bank supports countries’ access technical assistance (TA) and financial support for climate-related commitments set out in their NDCs. The World Bank has established the NDC Support Facility and Climate Action Peer Exchange18 to support NDC implementation (box 16.1). In addition, the World Bank is part of the Invest4Climate platform, which aims to accelerate transformative climate action.19 Box 16.1 World Bank Support to Initiatives Supporting NDCs The World Bank Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Support Facility was established as a trust fund in 2016, with an initial contribution from the German government in the amount of €23 million. The trust fund supports TA, capacity development, and coordination in support of NDC implementation. The NDC Support Facility has allowed the Bank to promote rapid progress to build NDC implementation momen- tum in NDCP member client countries, and to support improved cooperation with development partners. The Climate Action Peer Exchange (CAPE) initiative is a forum for peer-to-peer learning, knowledge sharing, and mutual advisory support. The CAPE initiative will facilitate the efforts of finance ministries to design effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies consistent with the achievement of the NDCs. Its focus areas include, but are not limited to, fiscal instruments for low-carbon growth, macroeconomic modeling, fiscal risk assessments, public investment planning, and climate budgeting. a. See the CAPE website, https://www.cape4financeministry.org. 16 The project is working under the leadership of the Ministry of Finance, the National Planning Authority, and the Climate Change Department. 17 The NDC Partnership is a coalition of countries and institutions working to mobilize support and achieve ambitious climate goals while enhancing sustainable development. More information at the NDC Partnership website, http://ndcpartnership.org. 18 See the Climate Action Peer Exchange website, https://www.cape4financeministry.org. 19 See the “About Invest4Climate” web page at https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/ mobilizing-finance-for-climate-action-through-the-invest4climate-platform. 124 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 16.2: Ongoing Client Engagement on NDCs Macroeconomics, Adaptation Agriculture Environment Water Trade & Investment Mitigation Social & Urban Cross-cutting Energy Transport Forestry Development Value added of WBG engagement (strategic: supports SCDs/CFPs, policy dialogue, Country investments, other) Sectors Policy dialogue, Investments across forests/landscapes, Rwanda climate resilient agriculture, sustainable energy Côte d’Ivoire Policy dialogue, private sector convening, technology West Africa Coastal specific advisory experts, link to investments Areas Resilience The WBG, through the WACA program, is supporting the Investment Project Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development IFC (US$250,000) to respond to the NDC priority on coastal resilience. The Achieve the 42% WBG has supported multisectoral consultations, regional Renewable Energy dialogue with countries that face similar coastal threats, and Target (US$250,000) investment preparation to build coastal resilience. Supporting Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock, and the Environment and Sustainable Development Agency with the preparation of a CSAIP, and multisectoral consultations Mali and regional dialogue; benefiting from support and in-kind contribution from the CGIAR CCAFS program in CSAIP design. To inform ongoing SCD development, forthcoming CPF, and NDP; to mainstream integrated landscape management Namibia (including natural resources, agriculture, and water) for increased resilience, production, and ecosystem services (biodiversity, erosion control, water quality, and quantity). The WBG is a key player supporting the work of the NDC partnership, building on the experience gained during of the Multi-Sector Investment Plan for coastal resilience and the current implementation of the project financed by STP the NDC SF. The Web-GIS platform under preparation will make available flood maps for current and future climate, Targeted Support land use evolution, and other georeferenced information, toward Building including the project portfolio for climate resilience in STP. Climate Resilience This tool will allow national institutions and development (US$300,000) partners to plan for risk-informed investments in a more coordinated manner. In addition, the WBGis creating a more dynamic cooperation among international development partners (e.g., coordination and collaboration between EU-funded project and the WBG). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 125 Table 16.2: Ongoing Client Engagement on NDCs (continued) Macroeconomics, Adaptation Agriculture Environment Water Trade & Investment Mitigation Social & Urban Cross-cutting Energy Transport Forestry Development Value added of WBG engagement (strategic: supports SCDs/CFPs, policy dialogue, Country investments, other) Sectors Mainstreaming of climate through customization, training, and institutional roll out of climate risk screening and Uganda climate change budget tagging and expenditure tracking tools (national budget system) in support of NDP (II) and (US$500,000) forthcoming NDP III and the budget systems; and support to high priority bankable projects (including Albertine Land Management). Policy dialogue and improved coordination and communication with partners and between sectors to inform Mozambique the government’s next five-year plan with streamlined (Adaptation resilient and low-carbon financable policies. Linking land use Investment planning processes and an ILFM approach to sustainable Framework and and resilient use of land and natural resources. Supporting Improving MRV for the government through the National Disaster Management NDC) Institute to identify risk areas, develop resilient infrastructures, and develop a more appropriate legal framework and a (US$400,000) supporting Disaster Risk Management national fund. Working in close collaboration with SIDA and KFW (added agriculture, water and social and urban development). Zimbabwe Policy dialogue investment planning for CSA and forestry. Upstream dialogue. To inform forthcoming SCD/CPF and Kenya NDC; links with investments (marine fisheries), and county devolution climate change mainstreaming TA. 126 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 17. Harnessing Satellite Technology for Climate Resilience Value Added of Earth Observation Data and Services Climate observations and risk screening are the basis for scientific understanding, detection of anomalies and hot spots, validation of models, and prediction of climate impacts. Therefore, they are one of the key foundations for managing risks. Decision makers require accurate, consistent, and timely information about the state of our changing environment and its evolution to form and inform adaptation and mitigation strategies. Earth observation (EO) from space supports this endeavor because satellites can deliver the comprehensive, global, and consistent datasets needed for climate observation, research, and services. EO is the technique for gathering of information about Earth’s physical, chemical, and biological systems. It involves monitoring and assessing the status of, and changes in, the natural and humanmade environment. EO data are best suited for climate resilience decision making because they: • Offer manifold possibilities for monitoring climate-induced environmental changes. • Complement existing climate data or substitute for nonexistent data; • Are useful for gathering homogenous, high-resolution, long-term, time-regular global information, including on regions not easily accessible or with safety concerns. • Provide the basis for establishing sectoral baselines (agriculture production areas, water availability, energy production, infrastructure). • Provide invaluable information about hazards, but also the exposure and vulnerability of humans and their assets. • Feature higher resolutions with regard to model data, which are spatially uniform compared to sparse ground measurements. • Are capable of providing near-real time observations. Accurate quantification of climate change–induced natural hazards’ intensity, vulnerability, and exposure of populations and assets is a necessary element of climate resilience. Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports advocate for a science-based, evidence-based risk approach for informed decision making under uncertainties, to design robust early warning systems, and to define an optimal safety net to transfer risks away from climate-sensitive sectors. By increasing access to geospatial information and data, EO services can support decision makers in addressing the recurrent challenges they face in risk assessment, medium- and long-term planning, climate monitoring and forecasting, and assessing development priorities. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 127 Harnessing EO Technology for Africa Using EO data from satellites in building resilience to climate change and climate variability is of particular interest for Africa due to the scarcity of quality data to assess the climate risks and potential impacts on the ground. Measures of vulnerability, hazards, and exposure rely on ground-based measurements or modelled data, which is not sufficient. Ground-based measurements provide the most direct way of measuring climate indicators at the surface. Ground-based observation networks report inadequate coverage in Africa both spatially (i.e., the density of stations) and temporally (i.e., intermittent, erratic recordings). Meanwhile, modelled datasets do not adequately resolve local conditions to allow local analyses and are often representative only for large-scale phenomena. Table 17.1: Expected Outcomes of World Bank Support to Harnessing Satellite Technology for Climate Resilience Expected outcomes Fast track Longer term Activities (by 2023) (by 2026) Cost (US$) • Conduct capacity building, raise awareness Deliver five Deliver 10 Deliver 15 about climate resilience goals, learn about user workshops, online workshops, online workshops, online requirements within Africa, and train hosted trainings. trainings. trainings. trainees on use of EO-based Conduct three Conduct 10 demos, Conduct 20 demos, climate service platform. demos, with with potential for with potential for • Conduct demonstrations of the value added potential for scale- scale-up. scale-up. services of the proposed solution with cases up. Provide access Provide access developed with stakeholders (e.g., International Provide access to 15 countries, to 20 countries, Financial Institutions, national hydrological to 10 countries, institutions, institutions, agencies and meteorological [hydromet] agencies) and institutions, agencies to to geospatial innovators (e.g., citizens, entrepreneurs) to agencies to geospatial information. derive high-level data products supporting the geospatial information. monitoring and management of climate change information. risks. • Increase access to geospatial information and data to support decision makers in challenges facing risk assessment, medium- and long-term planning, climate monitoring and forecasting, and assessing their development priorities. Main partners Resource mobilization See table 17.2 ESA EO4SD, IGAD ICPAC Resources to be mobilized (initial target US$2 million to US$3 million) EO applications, which are now available through open and free access data, can be used for monitoring and implementing climate change adaptation solutions in Africa, integrated with already existing data sources, provided investments are made in enhancing critical capacities. Table 17.1 highlights priority activities and outcomes, through capacity building and applications, to integrate EO-based, socioeconomic, and other relevant data to achieve a holistic view of climate-related risks. 128 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development In several African countries, including in the Horn, safety net programs have been scaled up to respond to shocks, based on early warning information ranging from the use of seasonal assessment and humanitarian appeals to the creation of new triggers based on data from satellites (box 17.1). Box 17.1 Mobilization of Safety Nets through Use of Satellite Data Saves Lives In the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF) III program, the World Bank collaborated with the Government of Uganda to access financial resources from the IDA, totaling US$130 million, with US$12 million specifically dedi¬cated to the Disaster Risk Financing Component. An index of satellite-based ob- servations of ground vegetation was used as an indicator of drought conditions and triggered a scale-up. The data source used to trigger a response must be independent and objective, because they are part of a transparent, rules-based approach to when, and how extensively, a safety net program expands. An objective indicator is needed for the impact of a crisis on household welfare, with a predefined threshold to trigger response. There should be agreement in advance on how many households will benefit from support, in what regions, and for how long. This avoids politicization of response, which can lead to costly delays. A World Bank facilitated training session in monitoring vessels in Ghana. (World Bank) Earth Observation for Sustainable Development (EO4SD) Marine and Coastal Resources Management cluster (table 17.2) focuses on coastal and marine issues to develop and demonstrate a portfolio of EO-based information services. These can be embedded into investment projects funded by the World Bank and other financial institutions. EO climate services will focus on coastal dynamics such as bathymetry, coastal erosion, and sedimentation; coastal environment such as water quality and pollution detection; marine and coastal surveillance, and support to the blue economy development (aquaculture, tourism, transport, energy). Table 17.2: World Bank Support to Marine and Coastal Resources Management Expected outcomes Fast track Longer term Activities (by 2023) (by 2026) Cost (US$) • Map coastal bathymetry. Produce Provide access to five Higher-resolution 10+ countries have freely available Sentinel-2 imagery to 10 countries, regional bathymetry dataset regular access and (10 m resolution). It can cover institutions, and agencies to available for regional and capacity to analyze relatively large areas with consistent bathymetry information at national agencies. EO-based data. methodology and at the required 10 m resolution. Five to 10 countries Establish self-sustaining frequency. Provide access to five to are producing analysis, regional and national • Increase access to geospatial 10 countries to data and key information, and ground-based information and data for sediment/ information. recommendations on observation networks. erosion control, coastal changes Hold one to two workshops coastal environment Regional and national mapping, water quality data, coastal per year in the region. status. experts and trainees land cover, and land use. Provide access to Three to six countries transfer knowledge. • MSP support. Provide information information to land and have capacity generation on ecosystem status, physical environmental planners. on MSP. parameters, and the interests of Countries support training Four to six countries economic actors. and data acquisition for develop information and • Increase access to geospatial regular coastal observation analysis for coastal zone information and data for multihazard and monitoring techniques. management with ground risk assessment to support decision Support three to six information. makers in medium- and long-term countries’ networks for Generate capacity in six to planning, forecasting, and assessing collection, processing, 10 countries to generate development priorities. and production data and analysis and reports • Establish ground-based information. on state of coastal and observations networks to manage One to two workshops marine zones using ground spatial- and ground-based data. per year. and spatial data. • Train national and regional entities One to three national National and regional on the use of EO-based information, and academic personnel experts provide training technical aspects of data trained on EO monitoring and lead workshops processing, analysis, mapping, and techniques and analysis per in using EO-based results interpretation. country. information. 130 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 17.2 Regional and collaborative action through West Africa Coastal Observatory Since 2011, the West African coastal countries have been developing the West Africa Coastal Obser- vatory. The West Africa Coastal Areas (WACA) program has financed its establishment and operation. The project was coordinated by the Centre de Suivi Ecologique, CSE, in Dakar, with assistance of the West African Monetary and Economic Union and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and built around the West African Coastal masterplan (Schéma Directeur du Littoral d’Afrique de l’Ouest-SDLAO), updated in 2016. There has been multicountry and multipartner support for the WACA program, following its launch in November 2018. The WACA preparation phase mobilized technical and financial partners to ensure scaling up and reinforcement. The WACA program intends to link national coastal observation initiatives and international technical expertise as decision supporting tools for coastal resilience. A November 2018 event organized by the Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE) brought together WACA countries and international specialized institutions, including the European Space Agency and French technical institutions (Centre d’Études et d’Expertise sur les Risques, l’Environnement, la Mobilité et l’ Aménagement [Center for Studies and Expertise on Risks, the Environment, Mobility and Develop- ment], Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières [French Geological Survey], Institut national de l’information géographique et forestière [National Geographic Institute], and Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine [Naval Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service]). Experts presented their achievements in coastal observation and outlined activities under the WACA program to improve the efficiency of coastal observation in West Africa. Participants agreed to establish a regional coast- al observatory mechanism in West Africa and to set up a mechanism for monitoring its development involving the CSE, the international technical assistance, countries involved in the WACA Resilience Investment Project (ResIP), and other West African coastal countries. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 131 Cashews are a highly valued crop in West Africa; current projects are funding the processing industry in West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire. (World Bank/Arne Hoel) Part III: Forward Look 18. ACBP Raising the Level of Ambition Unified Climate and Development Agendas in Sub- Saharan Africa Development and climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are inextricably linked, more so than in any other part of the world. Climate action cannot be divorced from the development agenda, especially in Africa. This has been the driving force of the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP), the Bank’s platform for climate engagement on the continent. In light of the analysis in the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report (2018), the race to resilience for Sub-Saharan Africa is that much harder. If the global community cannot keep warming to below 1.5°C, there are fewer than 12 years to ramp up on resilience. The stakes are high. Harnessing the returns on resilience planning and achieving transformation at scale continues to be challenged by limitations in resources and competing investments. The good news is that the region is not starting from zero; the bad news is that the current pace of climate action is far from sufficient. This section sets out action lines for scaled-up and transformational climate action in Sub-Saharan Africa to act with urgency in the face of escalating risks from climate impacts and limited progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions asset out in the Paris Agreement. The climate challenges—and the unfolding of other megatrends, including urbanization and demographic increases—amplify the call for concerted climate and development action to secure and sustain development gains. This broader context, coupled with the progress to date and emerging lessons from the ACBP portfolio, have helped shape this section and the new levels of ambition moving forward. This Forward Look is strongly aligned with the World Bank’s 2025 Targets to Step Up Climate Action and the World Bank Adaptation and Resilience Action Plan. Current Climate Context The warming over the last 50 years and the increase of global mean temperatures of 1°C has challenged economies and communities in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate- related impacts acting, for instance, through drought, water stress, agricultural productivity losses, and health issues, affect every fabric of society, but especially poor populations, Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 133 which continue to rely on rainfed cropping and pasture-based livestock systems in much of the region. Meanwhile, coastal areas of eastern and western Africa have some of the highest rates of population growth and urbanization, and they will experience even higher degrees of exposure to coastal hazards (Neumann et al. 2015). Although the region is blessed with a huge, untapped potential for renewable energy from low carbon sources, including hydroelectric, solar, and geothermal power, two out of three people in Africa, or about 600 million, still lack access to electricity. This dearth of energy access, coupled with rampant power shortages, further exacerbates the vulnerability and livelihood security of millions of people, as well as economic progress at large. Climate drivers are involved in most of the shocks that keep or push African households into poverty. Between 1990 and 2013, almost 43 percent of the drought events recorded in the EM-DAT21 database occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate projections suggest that rainfall variability is likely to increase over the coming decades, impacting food security, mobility, and infrastructure. Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human, natural, and infrastructure systems, can lead to disasters and disruptions in critical services. Natural hazards and disasters triggered significant displacement in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, forcing almost 2.6 million people to flee their homes (IDMC 2018). Drought triggered most of the 434,000 displacements recorded in Ethiopia; Cyclone Enawo displaced 247,000 people in Madagascar; floods displaced 189,000 in Niger; and Cyclone Dineo, most of the 170,000 in Mozambique. Other countries affected by disasters were Nigeria (122,000), Uganda (95,000), and Malawi (84,000). There were also 5.5 million new displacements associated with conflict and violence in 2017, double the figure for the previous year. If unaddressed, poverty, vulnerability, conflict, and climate change could put more people at risk, especially in the face of high population growth and increasing urbanization rates, which are predicted to continue to increase dramatically in the coming decades. Predictions of Intensified Climate Impacts in the Next Few Decades The IPCC Special Report (2018) issues a dire warning on the widespread nature of climate impacts that will unfold in the coming two decades. It underscores the urgency for climate action to reduce the global emissions and get on a pathway to limit warming. The report, underpinned by scientific research and analysis, states with high confidence that human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above preindustrial levels (likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C), and that this warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if human activities increase at the current rate (IPCC 2018) (figure 18.1). Global net emissions of carbon dioxide would need to fall by 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero around 2050 to keep the warming around 1.5°C. Unfortunately, current emission pathways are on track to deliver warming closer to 3°C. Scientists suggest, with high confidence, that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5°C than at present, but lower than at 2°C. 21. See the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters database, available at www.emdat.be/ database. 134 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development This ariel view of Bargny, Senegal, shows the vulnerability of this community to storm surges, flooding and erosion. (World Bank/Vincent Tremeau) Figure 18.1: Human-Induced Warming Rates to Projected 1.5°C Increase 2.00 1.75 Current warming rate Global temperature change relative to 1850-1900 (°C) 1.50 1.25 2017 1.00 Human-induced warming 0.75 Climate uncertainty for 1.5°C pathway 0.50 Observed 0.25 warming 0.00 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: IPCC 2018. Note: Human-induced warming reached approximately 1°C above preindustrial levels in 2017. At the present rate, global temperatures would reach 1.5°C around 2040. The stylized 1.5°C pathway shown here involves emission reductions beginning immediately, and CO2 emissions reaching zero by 2055. There is mounting concern that current global action on mitigation may not be adequate to meet the central tenet of the Paris Agreement: to keep the global temperature rise of this century to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels (and limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C). The stark warning of the IPCC Special Report (2018)—that warming beyond 2°C would significantly increase the risks and impacts of climate change compared to 1.5°C warming, and of some irreversible consequences being set in motion—cannot be ignored. Key messages are highlighted in box 18.1. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 135 Box 18.1 Key Messages from the IPCC Special Report, Global Warming of 1.5°C • There is high confidence that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are far greater at global warming of 2°C than for 1.5°C. At current levels of warming, the world would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. Impacts on terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, marine (and fisheries) ecosystems, and biodiversity, and in some regions, includ- ing drylands, and low-income countries (LICs), will be lower at 1.5°C compared to 2°C. • Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase with global warming of 1.5°C and increase further with 2°C. Extra warming on top of the approximately 1°C we have seen so far would ampli- fy the risks and associated impacts, particularly for poor households, and possibly increase the total number of people living in poverty. Vulnerable populations and communities dependent on agricul- tural or coastal livelihoods are disproportionately at risk at warming of 1.5°C and beyond. • In model pathways to keep within a 1.5°C warming, global net anthropogenic CO2 emis- sions would need to decline by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. There is no definitive way to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. • Countries’ current pledges to reduce their emissions, as set out in the national determined contributions (NDCs), are not in line with limiting global warming to 1.5°C; they are closer to 3°C. • The potential for climate-resilient development pathways differs among regions and na- tions, due to different development contexts and systemic vulnerabilities. Enhanced efforts should involve strengthened and timely actions across the board. The avoided climate change impacts on sustainable development, eradication of poverty, and reducing inequalities would be greater if global warming were limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, and if mitigation and adaptation synergies were maximized and trade-offs minimized. According to The Changing Wealth of Nations, some LICs—especially in Sub- Saharan Africa—saw a decline in per capita forest and agricultural land wealth (Lange, Wodon, and Carey 2018). Although the growth of wealth from 1995 to 2014 in many Sub-Saharan African countries matched that of other regions, rapid population growth outpaced investment. This degradation of natural resources and the mounting evidence of impacts of climate change on water, drylands, cities, agriculture, and migration will have grave consequences on Africa’s development. Uncharted Waters discusses how the impacts of water scarcity and drought may be even greater, causing long-term harm in ways that are poorly understood and inadequately documented (Damania et al. 2017). The study shows that in rural Africa, women born during severe droughts bear the marks throughout their lives, growing up physically shorter, receiving less education, and ultimately becoming less wealthy. And these impacts can lead to harmful intergenerational consequences for their offspring: their children are more likely to suffer from malnutrition, which leads to additional health challenges. Meanwhile, vulnerability in drylands is rising and will jeopardize livelihoods of millions is a key message of Confronting Drought in Africa’s Drylands (Cervigni and Morris 2016). In the absence of significant outmigration, by 2030, the population living in rural areas 136 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development of the dryland countries is projected to grow by 15 percent to 100 percent (depending on the country). The number of farming-dependent households in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa that are poor and vulnerable to droughts and other shocks is projected to increase by around 60 percent. The study underscores that sustainable management of drylands through resilience enhancement of inhabitants is key. Improved crop production technologies can deliver sizeable resilience benefits by boosting productivity in rainfed agriculture, and the number of drought-affected poor households could be reduced by 10 percent 80 percent compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario, depending on the country and aridity zone as well as the effectiveness of agricultural development. While interventions are needed to help communities adapt in place through concrete climate and development action, the Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration (Rigaud et al. 2018) projects that, by 2050, the number of climate migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa could reach up to 86 million under the pessimistic reference scenario. West Africa, projected to reach more than 50 million climate migrants, will be most affected, followed by East Africa (10 million). The numbers of climate migrants will ramp up between 2020 and 2050, and the region will see an emergence of hotspots of climate in- and outmigration as a consequence of lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. Early and concrete inclusive development undertaken at local and national levels, coupled with global action to reduce GHG emissions, could reduce the number of climate migrants significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, perhaps by almost 80 percent. Connections between African Megatrends and Climate Action By 2050, Africa will account for the highest population growth, with an additional 1.3 billion people, representing just over half of the added global population (UN 2017). The economic growth is driven by a surging population, increasing levels of education, and technology absorption. Whether Africa’s demographic transition is a dividend or disaster depends on how it harnesses key factors, including the youth bulge and the higher labor force participation of women. Sectors such as agriculture, which have traditionally absorbed the working population, will be increasingly challenged in the face of climate change. Investments in human capital—as an aggregation of education, skills, and health accumulated over lifetimes—can support countries to achieve their full potential of the economic productivity. However, these investments must be made in the context of climate impacts, which can undermine the gains across generations. With the right training and education skills, robust adaptive capacities in strong economies are a better place to plan for, implement, and address climate impacts across sectors and geographies. Poor people’s adaptive capacity is often undermined by lower education levels; limited access to resources and alternative livelihood options; discriminatory social norms that affect individuals’ access to labor markets and decent work; and a lack of long-term institutional planning, policy, and programmatic support for resilience strengthening activities (ISDR 2009). Family Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 137 coping strategies, such as withdrawing children from school or marrying off daughters to reduce the number of mouths to feed (or to bring new assets into the household), jeopardize the well-being of children (World Bank 2014) with intergenerational consequences. If the negative consequences (e.g., increased rates of malnutrition, lost educational opportunities) become more common, climate change could lead to an increase in intergenerational poverty cycles (Harper, Marcus, and Moore 2003), thus compounding vulnerability to climate change. In Africa, the proportion of undernourished children and those suffering from moderate and severe stunting is projected to decrease without climate change, but will increase with climate change, with the most significant increase of 31percent to 55 percent for severe stunting (World Bank 2013). Loss of human development opportunities in childhood can have lifetime consequences. Evidence from Zimbabwe, for example, indicates that children affected by drought and food insecurity in infancy never catch up on lost growth (Hoddinott and Kinsey 2001). The Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) 2012 called for a major scale-up of infrastructure capacity and improved maintenance across the continent’s major river basins. It is estimated that power demand will increase to more than 3,100 terawatt hours by 2040; corresponding transport volumes will increase six to eight times, with a particularly strong increase of up to 14 times for some landlocked countries. Water needs will push some river basins—including the Nile, Niger, Orange, and Volta basins—to the ecological brink. Information and communications technology (ICT) demand will swell by a factor of 20 before 2020 as Africa catches up with broadband. Hydropower capacity is planned to increase by a factor of six, and the irrigated area by 60 percent, but up to 700 percent in some basins (AUC, AfDB, and UNECA 2012). Ensuring that long-lived infrastructure is designed to standards that can withstand climate impacts and ensure delivery of services is critical for securing and sustaining resilience for the economies and communities at large. Urban populations in Africa will double over the next 25 years, from the current 472 million, as more rural migrants are pushed or drawn to cities (Lall, Henderson, and Venables 2017). The largest cities grow as fast as 4 percent annually. By 2050, 60 percent of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa will live in urban areas, compared to 40 percent today (UN DESA, 2014). Therefore, municipalities and their partners must address urban resilience (Carmin, Nadkarni, and Rhie 2012). There is a real opportunity for planning and infrastructure development to be climate-informed, since more than 60 percent of the land projected to become urban by 2030 has yet to be developed (World Bank 2015f). Increased rural urban migration (including climate-induced migration) and increasing urbanization could, if managed well, be engines of transformation. Technology is an area of growth and opportunity. While still below the global average of 65 percent, mobile subscriber penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa stood at 44 percent (444 million) by the end of 2017 and is expected to rise to 52 percent by 2050 (World Bank 2012). Smaller-scale applications, such as ICT-enabled services combined with mobile phone applications, can support knowledge sharing among people and communities to diversify livelihoods, reduce vulnerability, and build the capacity to respond quickly to changing 138 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development circumstances. Large-scale deployment of ICTs can include meteorological stations, sensor networks, and satellites, which can monitor and measure climate impacts. Satellite-based earth observation (EO) data can help to build resilience to climate change and climate variability; it is of particular interest for Africa due to the scarcity of quality data to assess the climate risks and potential impacts on the ground. If investments are made in enhancing critical capacities, these applications, which are available through open and free access data, can help to monitor and implement climate change adaptation solutions in Africa. ACBP climate actions should provide low-carbon and climate-resilient strategies to meet the challenges and opportunities in this larger context. These strategies should help to support Sub-Saharan countries in meeting their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This synergistic approach will guard against maladaptation or a lock-in to inappropriate adaptation options, while ensuring that adoption of low-carbon pathways can help countries to leapfrog into sustainable pathways across time scales and geographies. World Bank Group Post-2020 Climate Action and Targets In 2016, the Bank set a goal that 28 percent of its portfolio financing will be climate- related by 2020. This led to concerted action across the institution to increase climate co-benefits through investments. Under this commitment, the Africa Region had a target of 22 percent, although in the last couple of years the delivery has reached 27 percent and 28 percent, respectively. On the basis of the International Development Association (IDA) commitments, the Bank has increased climate mainstreaming through its country engagement instruments, such as Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs), Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs), and links with NDCs, projects, and programs. This commitment was deepened and extended to IBRD countries through the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP). The CCAP requires SCDs to examine the potential impact of climate change on future poverty reduction and consider adaptation priorities and implications of a country’s energy mix and proposed shifts to a lower-carbon economy, as articulated in the NDC. CPFs are required to address climate change issues and risks and include links to NDC priorities. The World Bank Group’s Corporate Post-2020 Climate Actions and Targets are in line with the Paris Agreement goals and respond to the urgency for climate action as called for by the IPCC Special Report (2018). The targets and actions constitute the Bank’s strategic directions and increased ambition during FY21–30 through (i) strengthening adaptation and resilience, (ii) mobilizing more finance for climate actions, and (iii) amplifying our impact on the ground with increasing emphasis on transformative investments. To this end, the Bank aims to make the strategic shifts from input-based to outcome-oriented, from a focus on internal mainstreaming to external outcomes at the country-level, and from making short-term effects to longer-term impacts. These targets and actions are structured around five themes: Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 139 • Scaling-up Finance for Climate Actions • Strengthening Transformational Policies and Systematic NDC Support • Investing for a Better-Adapted World • Deepening Greenhouse Gas Accounting and Promoting Carbon Markets and Pricing • Elevating Climate Impact in Priority Areas This Report is aligned with Corporate Post-2020 Climate Targets and Actions and the Adaptation and Resilience Strategy. Several of the actions and targets under the ACBP directly support and contribute to the Corporate commitment. The ACBP includes two time horizons (one for resource mobilization and another for the generation of results) with cut-off dates lined up with IDA replenishment cycles. These horizons correspond with the Corporate Post-2020 Climate Actions and Targets, which have a timeline of 2025. The FY20 timeline is for key upstream work (tools, diagnostics, assessments, case studies, assessments, and methodologies) (see table 18.1). Table 18.1: Fast-Track and Longer-Term Phases of the ACBP and the WBG Corporate Post-2020 Climate Targets’ Timeline Context Goal Fast track Longer-term track Mobilize resources June 2020 December 2024 ACBP Generate outcomes June 2023 June 2026 Corporate Post-2020 Generate outcomes n.a. By 2025 Note: n.a. = not applicable. Raising Our Ambition to the Closing Window or Opportunity for Climate Action While the results of the Special Report (IPCC 2018) represent a “new and even more compelling” wake-up call to expediently mitigate and adapt, it is equally important not to gloss over the realities faced by many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries not only have to adapt to the 0.5°C increased warming over the last 50 years but also need urgently to prepare for the intensification of impacts, which could act as poverty multiplier within the next two decades. At the same time, recent research suggests that the number of people exposed and vulnerable to climate impacts will double with warming increases from 1.5°C to 2.0°C, with numbers being higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions (Byers et al. 2018). The global community must ramp up its mitigation action, and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa must raise their ambition levels on adaptation even as they pursue lower emission pathways. Limiting the risks from global warming of 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication implies system transitions. These can be enabled by an increase of adaptation and mitigation investments, policy instruments, the acceleration of technological innovation, and behavior changes. 140 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The ACBP Forward Look proposes three lines of action that seek to ramp up action and deepen engagement and support for transformational and scaled-up action. These action lines can help Sub-Saharan Africa become more resilient and adapt to the intensifying impacts and pace of a changing climate (box 18.2). The ACBP, now in its third year of implementation, is a robust platform to fortify and galvanize climate action. It is also a strong portfolio with emerging lessons from each ACBP component to help chart future actions. These three strategic areas align well with the Corporate Post-2020 targets and commitments, and the Adaptation and Resilience Strategy. Box 18.2 ACBP Forward Look and Urgency to Act Strategic and Systemic Engagement for NDCs • Expediting institutionalization of climate action for transformation at scale, across sectors and geographies. Scaled-Up and Transformational Investments • Sustained and upscaled focus on natural capital ACBP, powering resilience, climate-smart cities, and transport systems. • Investing in human and social capital focused on health, education, and social resilience to short-circuit the intergenerational downward spiral from climate impacts. • Mobilizing the private sector, and harnessing the momentum for Maximizing Finance for Development. Strengthening the Enabling Context • Harnessing innovation and technology through building a green growth enabling context; and mobilizing satellite technology applications to leapfrog countries for climate resilience. • Fostering platforms for climate knowledge and exchange. Raising Financing and Driving Innovations in Financing • Resource mobilization for ACBP and closing the gap for resource needs. • Mobilizing the private sector and innovations in financing. Strategic Support for NDCs Mainstream climate action through strategic country engagement. The urgency for Sub-Saharan African countries to be prepared for more significant climate challenges and ramped-up global warming requires transformation at scale. The Bank must leverage its comparative advantage and portfolio of investments to support broader and more systemic shifts within countries. One strategy is through high-level ministries, which can embed and institutionalize climate-resilient and low-carbon considerations for accelerated action. This shift would build on the Bank’s internal mainstreaming through its SCDs and CPFs, and increased linkages with NDCs through investments. The Africa Region is engaged in eight countries on their NDCs, but these and other countries will benefit from a more structured Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 141 approach to country engagement, including through dedicated resources. The proposed new ACBP component for Strategic and Systemic Country Engagement for NDCs will support these interventions and is aligned with the Corporate Post-2020 plan. The race to resilience requires systemic and transformational shifts at multiple levels and scaled-up investments. These must be informed and underpinned by local development contexts and systemic vulnerabilities. Leap-frogging through shifts in policies, use of innovations and technologies, and engagement of all stakeholders— especially the private sector—to achieve climate-smart development is a crucial and indispensable part of the overall resilience strategy. Scaled-Up and Transformational Investments Strengthening resilience of natural systems. The IPCC Special Report (2018) notes with high confidence that the vulnerability of natural systems—and of impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable groups reliant on these systems—will intensify beyond 1.5°C warming. There has been a strong delivery within this cluster through Climate- Smart Agriculture (CSA), Integrated Watershed Management, Climate-Resilient Landscapes (Drylands and Forests), Coastal Resilience, and Climate-Smart Ocean Economies, but the issues still demand attention. These natural ecosystems deliver livelihoods and food security for more than 70 percent of the region’s population. The urgency to step up financing and action—specifically for dedicated investment plans (such as the climate-smart investment plans for CSA, the Forest Investment Program [FIP]) —must not be deferred. Equally, the call for anticipatory planning in strategic multicountry river basins coupled with programmatic interventions must be heeded to prevent mis- or maladaptation. Opportunities for carbon sequestration through afforestation, reforestation, and land-use options in support of community resilience and ecosystems services are even more attractive and compelling as the global community pursues multiple strategies to reduce emissions. Resource limitations that require clear setting of priorities among competing investments challenge the potential to realize transformation at scale. Powering resilience. While the support to renewables (Solar Power and Hydropower, and to a lesser extent Geothermal) under the ACBP is on track to meet the 2020 targets, the persistent energy access gap must be addressed as a part of an overall strategy to enhance resilience of the population through overall economic development. Raising the level of ambition for renewables, including through private sector engagement, is critical. The rapidly declining costs of renewables is creating favorable conditions for shifts to them, and the Bank is working to seize such opportunities in a logic of energy system planning. Cities and transport. Cities as places of future growth, spurred by demographic increases and rural-urban migration and accentuated by climate change, need to be climate-smart by pursuing transformational pathways. The ACBP experience reveals the need for cities to be moving toward large-scale, multisectoral business plans, which include low-carbon 142 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development considerations for green building (including innovation and technology) and transport systems. Meanwhile, transportation systems have to move from a reactive to a proactive business model and emphasize transformative, climate-resilient, and low-carbon transport in Africa. Robust analytics on resilience and decarbonization will be critical. Mobilizing the private sector. The private sector is crucial to ACBP success. It promotes strategic public sector interventions (e.g., investments, regulations, incentives) by harnessing the momentum around the Maximizing Finance for Development: highlighting their contributions to the climate agenda. Several ACBP components identify areas of engagement and scale-up. For example, under the Climate Smart Ocean Economies component, the Bank is looking at fishery supply chains to enable fishermen to capture large shares of value added in good harvest times as a buffer. In the Lake Victoria Basin, the Bank team is looking at green infrastructure as a protection against an adverse climate to reduce risk to the private sector and increase its incentives to invest. Forest ecosystems provide multiple opportunities to enhance carbon sequestration through dedicated instruments. Resource mobilization. The ACBP has exceeded the resource mobilization targets set out for 2020 for several ACBP components (e.g., CSA, Transport, Social Protection), and others (Solar Power, Hydropower, Climate-Resilient Landscapes, Integrated Watershed Management) are on track to deliver. Critical areas of landscape resilience, which underpin rural livelihoods, continue to have lower resources. Delivery through financial flows directly handled by the Bank—such as through IDA resources, IBRD, carbon finance, and certain trust funds (Global Environment Facility [GEF], Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery [GFDRR])—are tracked through its reporting system. In this context, co-financing against targets is significantly lower. For the ACBP to raise its level of ambition, IDA and IBRD resources will not be sufficient. There is a need to step up resource mobilization on multiple areas of ACBP focus. Investments in human capital can short-circuit the intergenerational downward spiral from climate impacts. Health and Education components ensure that climate risks are well embedded to deliver healthy and well-skilled human capital that can counter climate impacts and address the problem in an informed and planned manner across generations. Increasing investment in the adaptive capacities of societies is a key enabling condition to enhance resilience. Investments in human capital to attain the right knowledge, training, and skills must be accompanied with sectoral investments to support healthy, safe populations resilient to climate impacts over the next few decades. The new ACBP components for Health and Education have set out clear road maps to mainstream climate action into their programs (see Chapter 13 and Chapter 14). Strengthening the Enabling Context Harnessing Innovation and Technology. The appetite for green investments is an area of growth and opportunity that sits at the nexus of climate and development. Green Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 143 Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness and Innovation—a new component of the ACBP—lays out a clear strategy to build a strong enabling context in countries to innovate in key sectors through institutional mainstreaming for green growth and low-carbon strategies. Innovations in EO satellite data that can help to build resilience to climate change and climate variability are particularly relevant for Africa because they fill the gap of scarce and quality data. Satellite technology can provide benefits for climate monitoring and forecasting, access to systematic data sets and other applications, and integration with (scarce) existing data sources. Harnessing Satellite Technology for Climate Resilience—another new ACBP component—can help the region leapfrog into resilience through satellite technology applications in specific investments and dedicated capacity building. Knowledge platforms. Knowledge products can support climate action in investments and strategies through technical assistance (TA), customized solutions, and capacity building. The Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility (AFRI-RES) and other dedicated knowledge platforms with a focus on Africa, such as the Cooperation for International Waters in Africa (CIWA), the West Africa Coastal Areas Management Program (WACA), and TerrAfrica, provide excellent support. However, there is a high demand for knowledge (and resources) to pioneer on the climate front, as expressed by some of the new ACBP components, such as Health and Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation (FCI). It will also be important to seize the momentum created by those high-visibility global initiatives (Human Capital Index, Green Growth) to mobilize efforts and leverage resources for furthering climate knowledge and exchange. Core resilience capacities. Enhanced absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities realized through resilience attributes (such as robustness, preparedness, and diversification attributes) are increasingly part of project design and delivery. Addressing climate risks and vulnerabilities through well-planned interventions can yield multiple pathways to resilience for communities, infrastructure, and services. Moving forward, the ACBP is well placed to inform, and benefit from, the focus on a resilience metric as called for under the Corporate Post-2020 plan. Raising Financing and Driving Innovation in Financing Resource mobilization for ACBP. The initial ambition of the ACBP was to raise US$16 billion in climate finance by 2020: US$5.7 billion (revised to US$8.43 billion22) from IDA and the rest from various bilateral and multilateral sources, dedicated climate finance sources, and the private sector. The ACBP has exceeded the resource mobilization for several components (including CSA, Transport, Social Protection), while others (Solar Power, Hydropower, Climate-Resilient Landscapes, Integrated Watershed Management) are also on track to deliver. Critical areas of landscape resilience, which underpin rural livelihoods, have lower resources. The initial ACBP targets have been realized, largely through IDA (which reached close 22. With the inclusion of the transport sector. 144 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development to US$17 billion by June 2018). About 60 percent of ACBP financing is associated with adaptation and resilience and about 40 percent with mitigation. As before, the delivery through financial flows directly handled by the Bank (i.e., IDA resources, IBRD, and some trust funds [GEF, GFDRR, carbon finance]) has been tracked. The co-financing leveraged as associated or parallel financing has been difficult to track because they are not part of the formal World Bank tracking and reporting system. There is a need to step up resource mobilization on the strategic areas highlighted previously. For the ACBP to raise its level of ambition, IDA and IBRD resources will continue to be critical, but will not be sufficient. The ACBP is only a partial contribution to meet Africa’s financial needs for climate action, but it has made meaningful inroads to step up climate action into all of the sectors. It has served as a foundational basis for scaled-up and transformational action as laid out in some of the strategic objectives. Resource demands. The Program for Infrastructure Development (PIDA) in Africa estimates its long-term implementation through 2040 at more than US$360 billion. The overall capital cost of delivering the Priority Action Plan (PAP) from 2012 through 2020 is expected to be nearly US$68 billion, or about US$7.5 billion annually for the next nine years. Energy and transport projects and programs represent around 95 percent of the total cost, demonstrating the critical need for transformative investments in these sectors to support African trade, promote growth, and create jobs. Investment needs for information and communications technology (ICT) and water represent lower percentages. Work is underway to develop PIDA PAP 2. Meanwhile, Africa’s annual adaptation needs are estimated to be between US$5 billion to US$10 billion. Governments in Africa are availing themselves of climate financing from global funds like the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Global Environment Facility Least Developed Countries’ Fund (GEF LDCF), and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF),23 but countries continue to be challenged to access these. As of March 2018, the Africa Region (which includes North Africa) has received US$958 million (26 percent of the total 3.7 billion) for 26 projects (figure 18.2). NCE (2018) concludes that ambitious climate action does not need to cost much more, even as it yields considerable benefits. What is important is early and appropriate climate action. These early costs will ensure efficiency gains and delivery of services and sustained development outcomes. But if climate is ignored, as for example in roads, then rehabilitation can cost 10 times more and stress imposed by flooding 17 times more (compared to historical climate conditions). This underscores the need for an integrated approach to climate-smart development. Private sector mobilization and financing innovations. Public finance alone cannot meet the financing gap. The role of the private sector remains crucial to the overall success of the ACBP. Several ACBP components identify areas of engagement and scale-up. For 23. Bank-approved projects reflect some of the financing from the GEF and LDCF. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 145 example, under the Ocean Economies component, the Bank is looking at fishery supply chains to enable fishermen to capture large shares of value added in good harvest times as a buffer. In the Lake Victoria Basin, the Bank team is looking at green infrastructure as a protection against an adverse climate, which may reduce risk to the private sector and increase its incentives to invest. Forest ecosystems provide multiple opportunities to enhance carbon sequestration through dedicated instruments. Some financing innovations are gaining momentum to support climate resilience and broader development agendas and must be part of the mix and strategy to leverage financing. Examples include the following. Maximizing Financing for Development. The significant financing gap begs the need for continued emphasis to pioneer and innovate to unleash private-public solutions. To counter this gap, the World Bank Group is seeking to Maximize Financing for Development (MFD), an approach that seeks to leverage the private sector while optimizing the use of scarce public resources. The MFD applied to large-scale investments holds promise for learning and replication in Africa. The Nachtigal hydropower project in Cameroon demonstrates the principles: it is not only crowding in private capital and reducing public debt but also lowering the overall costs of service for electricity and enabling the country to meet its ambitious targets by meeting its energy demand through renewable sources. Sovereign instruments. These are gaining prominence to support climate resilience and broader development agendas. Seychelles has launched the world’s first sovereign blue bond—another pioneering financial instrument that combines public and private financing to support the transition to sustainable fisheries and safeguarding the oceans to develop a blue economy. With sovereign risk financing, the Kenya Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat-DDO) provides rapid access to funds in the event of disaster and supports key reforms to strengthen the country’s ability to manage disaster and climate risks proactively. Figure 18.2: Total GCF Funding Amount by Region, March 2018 a. All Regions b. Adaptation only Multiregion Africa Non-LDCs/SIDS/Africa US$643 million US$958 million, 26% US$449, 31% 17% LAC US$907 million 24% EE Asia-Pacific LDCs, SIDS, and/or Africa US$37 million, 1% US$1192 million, 32% US$982 million, 69% Source: GCF 2018. (Adaptation allocation only) 146 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Crowd funding. It is an example of nonconventional financing. A smaller European technology firm working in East Africa, challenged with raising capital and overcoming other constraints, used crowd funding to upscale solar and help rural poor households get energy. According to the World Bank, globally, crowd funding provided US$2.1 billion in investment in 2015, and investments in low-income countries (LICs) are predicted to exceed US$96 billion a year within a decade. Remittances. Despite being the most expensive place to send money to, Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 11.4 percent growth in remittances to US$38 billion in 2017, supported by improving economic growth in advanced economies and higher oil prices benefiting regional economies. Nigeria (with US$21.9 billion) was the largest remittance recipient, followed by Senegal (US$2.2 billion), and Ghana (US$2.2 billion). The direct benefits of remittances, which often spike at the time of environmental- and climate-induced events (e.g., floods, droughts), coupled with the trickle down and multiplier impact of these remittances, have been found increasingly to yield benefits at the local level. However, they cannot be seen as a substitute for core development, especially since the poorest households could be entrapped and without the means for mobility to harness remittances. Forward Look—Bringing It Together This Third Progress Report indicates a necessity to step up climate action with greater vigor and focus through the proposed four lines of action as part of the Forward Look. Elaborating a next generation climate business plan plan and mobilizing concrete resources will be the next critical step. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 147 A Gambian weaver shows off his colorful textiles. Access to markets are key for West African artisans. (Shutterstock) Appendix A Methodology for Assessment of SCDs and CPFs for Integration of Climate Risks and Linkages with NDCs Table A.1: Qualitative Assessment of SCDs and CPFs for Integration of Climate Risks and Linkages with NDCs • Incorporation of climate change risks and vulnerabilities • Does the SCD reflect climate change as a risk to sustainability? » Does the SCD clearly identify the climate change risks? • Does the SCD reflect climate vulnerabilities? If so, are they reflected in a silo (i.e., as a separate, stand-alone discussion) or given strategic recognition across sectors? » Does the SCD identify the sectoral impact of these climate vulnerabilities? • Does the SCD reflect climate change impacts on the twin goals of poverty reduction and inclusive growth and prosperity? • Does the SCD reflect strategic linkages to climate change as an issue in specific sectors? • Does the SCD highlight opportunities for tackling climate change? • Does the SCD identify existing climate-smart policies and make recommendations for additional policies? • Does the SCD identify knowledge gaps related to climate change? Referencing of NDCs • Does the SCD make explicit reference to NDCs? • Does the SCD refer to the NDCs in the analysis on government strategies and policies? • Does the SCD incorporate NDCs in sectoral analysis? • Does the SCD recognize NDC-related knowledge gaps? Each CPF was assessed against the following criteria. Incorporation of climate change risks and vulnerabilities • Does the CPF, drawing from the SCD, appropriately reflect climate change risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities? • Does the CPF reflect strategic linkages to climate change as an issue in specific sectors? • Does the CPF have a pillar on climate change, adaptation, resilience, and/or mitigation? » If not, is climate change (adaptation/resilience and/or mitigation) reflected adequately within the pillars identified? • Is climate change addressed or reflected in pipeline projects and ASAs? • Does the CPF address climate change–related knowledge gaps identified in the SCD, particularly in the form of pipeline ASAs? • Does the CPF appropriately track climate action in the results framework? Reflection of NDCs • Does the CPF make explicit reference to the NDCs? • Does the CPF link/include government strategies and policies to the NDCs? • Does the CPF make strategic cross-sectoral linkages to NDCs? • Are the NDCs reflected in the results framework, in the objective/intervention logic/indicators? • Does the CPF explicitly indicate an intention to support implementation of NDC and, if so, are there any specific ASAs or investments mentioned? Co-benefits • Does the CPF make reference to the WBG goal on co-benefits? • Does the CPF identify areas to maximize climate co-benefits? • Does the CPF indicate increasing ambition to maximize climate co-benefits? • Does the CPF include a complete co-benefits assessment of active, past, and indicative broad pipeline projects? Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 149 Appendix B Methodology for Resilience Analysis for the ACBP: Third Progress Report Background Resilience is increasingly recognized for its importance in achieving development goals, and there are ever more calls to grow our investments in resilience-building activities. Practitioners have long discussed how to integrate resilience into projects and operations, ways in which resilience-building projects can be designed, and how resilience can be practically measured and evaluated. The World Bank Board endorsed adaptation and resilience as the most important priority for action during the Climate Change Action Plan Board update in June 2018. Between 2015 and 2018, the Results Monitoring and Evaluation for Resilience-Building Operations Project (ReM&EP) has been working to develop a systematic approach to resilience M&E for World Bank projects and operations. This project has studied, solicited input on, and internalized best practices in resilience M&E, and has produced various publications and resource materials to support operational teams at the World Bank (and externally) to integrate, monitor, and evaluate resilience-building in projects and programs. These resources are housed at the Resilience M&E knowledge portal.24 The project has influenced the Africa Climate Business Plan’s (ACBP’s) Second Progress Review (World Bank 2017a), in which it supported shaping the story of how projects within ACBP’s umbrella are achieving resilience. This analysis will be deepened through the use of resilience attributes in addition to resilience capacities. Objective The purpose is to monitor resilience outcomes and evaluate pathways the ACBP portfolio has taken to build resilience to climate and disaster risks. 24 See the FURL website at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/400851506100481060/World- Bank-resilience-M-E-ReM-E-good-practice-case-studies 150 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Selection and Methodology Based on a review of ACBP project documents, operations are identified based on the following criteria:25 • They are from FY16–18. • They have board-approved project appraisal documents (PADs) or project papers. This is done so that comprehensive project details can be accurately analyzed at the component level. They provide 90 percent of the climate change adaptation co-benefits within the ACBP component they are tagged against (IDB et al. 2018, annexes B and C).26 This is done because the primary goal for this review is to glean resilience pathways for climate and disaster risks. Selecting projects delivering the top 90 percent of climate change adaptation co-benefits for each ACBP component allows capturing results across a sample of the entire ACBP pipeline and portfolio. Fifty-seven projects met the criteria and had project documents available, comprising 27 percent of the total ACBP projects under FY16-18, and 58 percent of the total ACBP projects in FY16-18 that have climate change adaptation (CCA) co-benefits. The distribution of projects selected is summarized in the table below. Table B.1: Distribution of Projects across ACBP Components for which Resilience Attributes and Pathway Analysis Were Applied Projects in Projects that contribute to at Projects ACBP component FY16–18 least 90% CCA co-benefits assessed Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) 79 26 28 Climate-Resilient Landscapes (Drylands) 20 3 6 Climate-Resilient Landscapes (Forests) 17 2 4 Water 9 6 5 Niger River Basin 2 2 2 Lake Chad 0 0 0 Zambezi Basin 0 0 0 Lake Victoria Basin 1 1 1 Climate-Smart Ocean Economies 13 2 2 Climate-Smart Cities 15 5 7 Coastal Resilience (West Africa) 4 2 2 Climate-Smart Transport 31 11 11 Solar 23 1 2 Hydropower 10 1 1 25 Taken from the ACBP 2018 project database. Please contact Kanta Kumari Rigaud at kkumari@ worldbank.org to access the database. 26 The climate co-benefits assessment at the World Bank follows the Joint Methodology for Tracking Climate Finance that the World Bank and other multilateral development banks use to track and report on climate finance. See IDB et al. (2018), annexes B and C, for the methodology. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 151 Table B.1: Distribution of Projects across ACBP Components for which Resilience Attributes and Pathway Analysis Were Applied (continued) Projects in Projects that contribute to at Projects ACBP component FY16–18 least 90% CCA co-benefits assessed Geothermal 1 0 0 Addressing Drivers and Impacts of Migration 6 1 1 Social Protection 22 2 5 Africa Hydromet Program 4 1 1 AFRI-RES Facility 1 1 0 Climate-Smart Health 12 2 3 Climate-Smart Education 18 3 3 Green Financial Systems, Financial Protection Instruments, and Green Competitiveness and 0 0 0 Innovation Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment 0 0 0 Note: For each ACBP component those projects were selected that contributed to delivering at least 90 percent CCA co-benefits under that ACBP component. The numbers here reflect more than the total of 57 projects assessed because projects are often tagged as more than one component. Building the Database The components of these projects, as well as other essential project information, have been consolidated in a master database, which contains 208 Board-approved projects from FY16–18. In the cases of Program for Results (P for Rs), their Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLIs) were analyzed and included in the master database instead of components, since they provided further information. The projects are divided into 23 ACBP components. Of these, six components—Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility (AFRI-RES); Chad and Zambezi (part of Integrated Watershed Management); Geothermal; Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; and Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation—did not meet the criteria of this methodology for FY16–18 as of September 12, 2018. Geothermal did not have any projects with CCA co-benefits while the remaining five did not have any projects under FY16–18. Furthermore, three ACBP components (Africa Hydromet Program, Water, and Climate-Smart Transport) fell slightly short of the 90 percent CCA co-benefits criteria. This is because some projects were not Board-approved and had to be dropped from the analysis. Information on climate change co-benefits is extracted from Climate Co-Benefits Dashboard.27 ACBP operations providing CCA co-benefits are tagged in the database and sorted by value (US$). Of the 208 projects with a total commitment of US$20.6 billion and total climate co-benefits of US$6,574 million, 140 projects positively contribute to climate change co-benefits and 98 contribute to CCA co-benefits. The remaining projects either did not have any climate change co-benefits or they were not assessed for climate change co- benefits due to unavailability of information. 27 To access the dashboard, see: https://tab.worldbank.org/t/WBG/views/Climate_Finance_ Dashboard_Corporate/Corporate?:embed=y&:showShareOptions=true&:display_ count=no&:showVizHome=no&:toolbar=top. Version as of this report updated on August 31, 2018. 152 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Approach To capture an illustrative set of resilience-building pathways being implemented or planned within the ACBP, the projects’ components are studied for their resilience-building attributes and associated capacities they contribute to using the ReM&E overarching resilience results framework and the Resilience Assessment Benchmarking and Impact Toolkit (RABIT).28 One or more resilience attributes can contribute to enhancement of resilience capacities in the context of absorptive, adaptive, and transformative actions. The resilience pathway analysis articulates how project activities are enhancing resilience attributes, which are in turn building resilience capacities. Project components are studied and their activities screened for relevance to climate and disaster resilience building. Components are considered “resilience relevant” if they are related to one or more of the following attributes, and they are simultaneously tagged to contributing toward one or more of the following core resilience capacities in chapter 1, table 1.15. Many projects have multiple pathways toward resilience, because components contribute toward building different types of resilience attributes or core capacities. Additionally, components can build more than one resilience attribute or core resilience capacity, so the relationships are not always linear. Components are further categorized as: • Y: Yes, the component is directly relevant to resilience. These components are directly included in the analysis. • Y*: Yes, the component could be relevant to resilience if it measures dimensions specific to climate and disaster risks. These components are included in the analysis. • N: Not related to resilience. These components are dropped from the analysis. Many of these components’ categorizations, generalizations, and simplifications are subjective and are not always reflective of the specific project context in which the components are applied. As such, the analysis should be used only for illustrative and instructive purposes to show the breadth and variety of components being applied to reflect results related to climate and disaster resilience. Next Steps AFRI-RES trust funds are supporting 16 projects to ensure enhanced consideration of climate resilience in their design. Task teams have self-assessed the baseline and anticipated targets against the aforementioned resilience attributes. This analytical work 28 Through consultations with the infrastructure and sustainable development vice presidencies, an overarching results framework for resilience was produced under the ReM&E project. Details on this framework can be found in the ReM&E Operational Guidance Note. For RABIT framework, see: http:// www.niccd.org/resilience/ Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 153 and methodology will be useful to assess the output of this exercise to encourage proactive upstream engagement toward resilience. The work will be organized around these three areas. • Assessment of “selected” PADs for the resilience attributes or capacities. • Assessment of “selected best-case examples” for ACBP-3 report against resilience attributes or capacities. • Collation of information from 16 AFRI-RES supported projects against resilience attributes (baseline and expected targets). 154 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Appendix C Methodology for Resilience Analysis for Assessment of AFR SCDs and CPFs The World Bank Group seeks to mainstream climate change into country strategies across the Bank. Through Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs) and Country Partnership Framework (CPF) instruments, the country engagement process becomes the entry point to mainstream climate change into upstream Bank operations. International Development Association (IDA)17 and IDA18 include a special theme on climate change with mandates to include climate risks as part of the SCD analysis and in the CPF. IDA18 includes a policy commitment to reference a country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the 2015 Paris Agreement in the SCD and the CPF. The aim of this exercise is to include in the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) an assessment of the incorporation of climate change aspects, including the NDCs, in SCDs and CPFs for the Africa Region. This assessment will illustrate how climate change and NDC considerations are reflected upstream and in the pipeline. This is a new analysis—it has not been conducted in previous editions of the ACBP. It is part of an effort to go beyond assessing project documents on the mere absence or presence of references to NDCs toward a more strategic and interlinked integration of climate change risks and opportunities and NDCs. Methodology This assessment will focus on completed (presented to Board) SCDs and CPFs in FY18, based on Board presentation dates. The universe for assessment will therefore include 10 SCDs29 and three CPFs30 from FY18. The respective SCDs for the three CPF countries will also be reviewed briefly to understand the nature and extent of climate change issues included in the diagnosis, and if this in turn appropriately informed the climate change strategies in the CPF. 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