80146 Issue #6 May 2013 Projecthighlights Disaster Risk Management in South Asia: A Regional Overview Overview the number of disasters per year has quadrupled over the past four decades. Resulting damages have accumulated The increased frequency and intensity of disaster to over US$25 billion in the past five years alone3. events is well documented and understood by Despite increasing disaster risk in SAR, awareness most stakeholders across the world. Governments, and understanding of this risk among individuals international institutions, nonprofit organizations, and governments remains low. As an emerging topic, and the private sector, among others, have committed exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards and their significant resources to raising awareness of the consequential impacts are not yet at the forefront of exposure and vulnerability of populations to natural development agendas. This is the case in SAR despite hazards such as earthquakes, cyclones, excess rainfall, the fact that mitigating the unforeseen consequences and other events. Awareness has increased for good of disasters is important for achieving development reason: in the 1970s, approximately 69 natural disasters goals. The challenge lies in demonstrating results from were annually recorded; by the 2000s, this figure had investments that increase resilience to hazards. The increased to 350 per year1. Similarly, annual economic costs of investing in hazard resilience are clear; however, losses that averaged approximately US$12 billion per the benefits must be measured not by the infrastructure year in the 1970s have grown to approximately US$88 built or the services delivered, but rather by the lives billion per year since 2000.2 The same patterns have saved and damages averted during a disaster. been developing in the South Asia Region (SAR), where Only through a clear understanding of disaster risks can policy makers prioritize increasing their 1 All data on Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT: The population’s resilience to these events. Enhancing OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database); All figures resilience to hazards in SAR is critical given the in this report are in real 2010 USD. 2 lbid lbid 3 www.gfdrr.org Projecthighlights continued, steady path of economic development. Positive property, and livelihoods across the region. Comparing growth trends have increased the number of people and vulnerability to hazards independently, vulnerability to physical assets in harm’s way, but have not been coupled earthquakes is increasing due to continuous construction with investments in effective risk management practices in of buildings that are not resilient to seismic activity, while most SAR countries. Analyzing the root causes of disasters the vulnerability to cyclones has decreased somewhat due to will increase the understanding of disaster risk and trigger improved early warning systems. action to enhance resiliency. Natural Disasters: An Increasing Threat Understanding Risk: The Complex Matrix to Development of Hazards, Vulnerability, and Exposure Natural disasters are caused by extreme occurrences in nature Disasters result from the combination of three key elements: for which society is unprepared. Disasters have not only i) natural hazards, including earthquakes, cyclones, excess disrupted the normal course of life of affected communities rainfall, tsunamis, etc.; ii) exposure (of people and property and countries in SAR, but have also halted development to these hazards); and iii) vulnerability (of the human and efforts. Funds originally earmarked for new initiatives physical capital exposed) due to physical, social, economic, must be transferred to relief, response, and rehabilitation governance, and environmental factors that increase the work, often crowding out new infrastructure and capital susceptibility of a community to the impact of a natural development. In the past ten years alone, it is estimated that hazard. the countries in the region have suffered from over US$50 The hazard element is the relatively fixed variable of the billion worth of damages.4 These figures do not include losses equation. Seismic activity, rainfall trends, and cyclone events in informal sectors of the economy or long term losses related remain relatively constant, although there is a threat that the to environmental and social capital, both of which are difficult latter two may rise in the future as a result of climate change. to measure and often go unreported. According to a report published by the Intergovernmental SAR is highly exposed and highly vulnerable to the impacts Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2012, increases in global of hazard events. Between 1971 and 2009, South Asia has temperatures may have an impact on storm surge, the experienced 1,017 natural disasters that meet the criteria variability of rainfall, and the duration of heat waves. of EMDAT.5 The absolute number of disasters has increased The exposure element is increasing steadily in SAR due steadily starting with 8 reported disasters in 1971 to more than to economic growth, greater capital stocks, rising population, 40 in 2009 – a fivefold increase. These events have cumulatively and continued urbanization. Each of these factors results in affected over 2 billion people and have caused over 800,000 more people and assets exposed to hazard events. However, deaths. Direct economic losses recorded over this time period growth in exposure itself does not necessarily imply that there amount to over US$80 billion, a figure that does not account will be greater risk. If the exposed assets are highly resilient for substantial indirect losses. In particular, high-impact single to the hazards, losses may not increase. In SAR, because the events have caused massive damage. However, it is important assets lack resilience, a higher concentration of assets will to note that the frequency and intensity of the hazards have lead to greater loss. not increased. This implies that the growth in the number and The growth in the vulnerability of exposed assets to impact of disasters is related to increased exposure and/or natural hazards is uncertain. Currently, the vulnerability of greater vulnerability to hazard events. exposed assets in SAR is high. Unplanned human settlements, The increase in reported disasters is driven, in large unsafe building practices, and high population densities, part, by a greater number of hydro-meteorological events. particularly in growing urban areas, have further compounded As shown in Figure 1 the number of seismic events has the complex matrix of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of remained relatively steady over the past 40 years, but the region. The consequence is that disasters of every type flood and storm events have become increasingly common and magnitude occur at regular intervals, consuming lives, despite relatively consistent rainfall patterns. The growth in the number of hydro-meteorological events is driven by the region’s limited capacity to manage high rainfall and storm events and an increased concentration of assets in high risk areas. Combined, this results in a greater number of disasters and higher economic losses. In fact, South Asia is the most exposed region in the world to flooding and highly exposed to cyclones. Of the world’s total population exposed to floods each year, 64 percent of them are in SAR. Furthermore, within 4 Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database) (http://www.em-dat.net). 5 For a disaster to be entered into the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), at least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled: i) 10 or more people reported killed; ii) 100 or more people reported affected; iii) declaration of a state of emergency; iv) call for international assistance. 2 Projecthighlights Figure 1: Number of Disaster Events in South Asia (1970-2010) Figure 2: Trends in Economic Losses Associated with Natural Disasters in South Asia (1971-2010) 30 14,000 Economic loss (USD in thousands) Damages Earthqauke (5y average) 12,000 Damages (5y average) 25 Flood (5y average) 10,000 Number of events Storm (5y average) 20 8,000 15 6,000 10 4,000 5 2,000 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database) (http://www.em-dat.net) the developing world, South Asia is the second most exposed Figure 3: Events and Impacts of Disasters in SAR region to cyclones. n Flood n Wind n Earthquake Economic losses due to disasters are also on the rise both 3% from an increase in the number of disaster events and from 10% 11% 16% an increase in the average loss associated with each disaster 44% event coupled with a greater concentration of exposed assets. 33% 23% As the population grows, urbanization increases, cities become more developed, and the accumulated economic 86% 35% wealth that is exposed to disaster events grows. Over the 57% 61% past 40 years, the total infrastructure spending in SAR has 21% increased exponentially, with gross fixed capital formation being approximately 50 times greater in 2010 than it was No. of No. killed Total Total events affected damages in 1970. As a result, cities today have highly concentrated and highly valued productive assets exposed, along with Source: Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International significant amounts of public and private infrastructure that Disaster Database) (http://www.em-dat.net) is not resilient to hazard events despite increased levels of development. Figure 2 shows the increase in losses over gradual onset of such events compared to other natural time, with dramatic spikes representing the losses caused hazards results in a smaller number of human fatalities. by medium and large-scale single events, and the five-year Economic losses due to floods in South Asia are, however, rolling average depicting the long-term trend. especially high due to the long-term direct and indirect Not only have direct losses resulting from the physical impact on assets and production. Relative to the size of SAR’s destruction of assets increased, indirect losses due to GDP, flood losses are approximately 15 times greater than natural disasters have also multiplied. Indirect losses losses in OECD countries.6 In contrast, cyclones are rapid include the broader consequences of disasters, including onset and high intensity events that lead to higher fatalities the interruption of business operations, a decrease in but fewer damages. Figure 3 summarizes the differentiated private and public revenues, widespread unemployment, impacts of each type of disaster accumulated over the past and market destabilization. By their very nature, indirect 40 years. losses are harder to measure than losses stemming directly Across all types of events, the human impact of disasters from physical damage, and only recently have processes in SAR is high. In the last 40 years, an estimated 825,000 and standards been put into place in South Asia to quantify people in SAR lost their lives in natural disasters. In the past these losses. Indirect losses are spread over a larger area and decade alone, nearly 700 million people, half of the region’s can transcend local and international boundaries. Evidence population, was affected by one or more disasters. Most to date suggests that the proportion of indirect impacts countries in SAR are among those countries most at risk of increases in larger disasters, and thus may constitute a larger mortality due to disasters, both on an absolute and a relative fraction of total losses and damage in larger disasters than in level as shown in Figure 4.7 smaller ones. The damages caused by natural disasters are exerting The impact of hazard events varies by the type of more and more pressure on development opportunities. Public disaster in SAR. Over the past 40 years, there have only been expenditure is placed under stress by the repeated need to 79 earthquake events in the region. However, these events are associated with high mortality rates due to their sudden Ibid. 6 and concentrated impact. On the other hand, flood events Absolute risk is the average annual expected mortality; relative 7 are the most common natural hazard in the region and affect risk describes the average annual expected number of deaths as the greatest number of people and assets, but the relative a proportion of national population. 3 Projecthighlights Figure 4: Absolute and Relative Multi-Hazard Mortality Risk for Tropical Cyclones, Floods, Earthquakes, and Landslides Modelled fatalities per million per year (relative) Modelled fatalities per year (absolute) Source: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2009). reallocate capital budgets away from long term development step in the process is to identify disaster risks, which entails planning and towards reconstruction activities in post-disaster understanding the hazards, the assets exposed to the hazards, environments. Several state governments spend significantly and the vulnerability of these assets to the hazards. Once the more on relief and damages than on their rural development risk is understood, activities can mitigate the risk through programs. For example, in the state of Maharashtra, India, a structural and non-structural measures. Structural measures single drought in 2003 and a flood in 2005 consumed more include retrofitting existing buildings to increase resilience of the state budget (US$3.5 billion) than the entire planned and constructing protective infrastructure. Non-structural expenditure (US$3.04 billion) on irrigation, agriculture, and measures aim to prevent the lock-in of future vulnerability. rural development for the 2002–2007 planning period.8 This is achieved, inter alia, through managing infrastructure development by enforcing building codes to ensure Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management resilient construction and adhering to land use policies that into Long-Term Development prevent assets from being constructed in highly vulnerable The purpose of engaging in disaster and climate risk environments. The third step is to develop risk financing mitigation activities is to decrease the vulnerability of strategies that ensure the availability of fiscal resources current and future assets exposed to natural hazards. The first required to respond to disaster events. Incorporating disaster World Bank. (2007). Climate Change Impacts in Drought and 8 risk management practices into development planning and Flood-Affected Areas: Case Studies in India. IBRD 43946. making specific investments today will increase resilience to Washington, D.C. hazard events tomorrow. Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informa- tion shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.