74201                                  *    TRADE WATCH                  st †    1  Quarter 2010                           To see the note and data updates visit:                        http://www.worldbank.org/research/trade/                                                       Authors:                                Caroline Freund     (cfreund@worldbank.org)              ‡    Ileana Cristina Neagu   (ineagu@worldbank.org)                                                                                                                                                          The World Bank                    DECRG                                                                             * TRADE WATCH is a quarterly note that follows international trade flows from a global perspective. It contains up- to-date trade data from an array of sources along with an analysis from Caroline Freund and Ileana Cristina Neagu, international trade specialists in the Development Economics Research Group, covering issues such as import and export growth at national, regional and industry levels, exchange rate fluctuations and quantity and price decomposition of trade. The goal of the note is to provide high quality and timely information to World Bank units and stakeholders. The report is supported by funding the governments of Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom through the Multidonor Trust Fund for Trade and Development. † Trade Watch was previously issued on a monthly basis. The shift to quarterly publication is motivated by the abatement in the crisis. ‡ This author took over database maintenance and Trade Watch analysis from Matias David Horenstein.       1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH TRADE UPDATE – FIRST QUARTER 2010 TICKS UP • The first quarter of 2010 records continued trade growth. • Trade growth in Asia and Latin America remains strong. • Europe is the laggard. • Sectoral evidence from the US and Japan highlights weakness in heavy manufactures. Data for the first quarter of 2010 indicate that trade ticked up from the last quarter. Tables 1 and 2 show seasonally adjusted export and import growth, respectively, 1 using 7 years of monthly trade data in constant dollars for 61 countries. Q1 2010 data show a 2.5 percent increase in trade. Quarterly growth rates by region are shown in Figures 1 and 2. 2 The dark bars represent the most recent quarter’s growth rates, and the lighter bars show the previous quarter’s growth rates. East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America show robust growth that has been on track for six months now. South Asia records strong growth in the recent quarter. Europe shows a sharp drop in export growth in the recent period, as a second round of financial concerns has arisen. Many of the countries at the lower end of the import and export growth distribution, as depicted in Figures 3 and 4, are European. Preliminary evidence suggests that exports will expand in the second quarter as the depreciation of the Euro takes hold. So far, only three of the 61 economies included in the analysis—China, Hong Kong, and Indonesia—have managed to reach or exceed their pre-crisis export and import levels. This is illustrated in Table 3, which shows how trade of Q1 2010 fares relative to the value two years ago, when trade was booming. On average, the remaining gap is around 11 per cent for exports and 20 per cent for imports.3 However, the situation varies widely, with many European countries displaying gaps much wider than the average. Trade fell fast and furiously across countries since the onset of the financial crisis in the fall. Figure 5 compares trade growth (month over same month the previous year) in this crisis and in previous downturns (1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001), using monthly data in constant U.S. dollars for a balanced sample of 39 countries that report data from January 1960 through March 2010. Data are matched so that year zero is the lowest point of the 1 We converted nominal trade to year’s 2000 constant dollars growth and seasonally adjusted using country-month fixed effects. 2 Africa and the Middle East are not included because there are not enough countries reporting data for credible statistics. 3 The gap between average exports and imports is due primarily to the absence of several of the large oil exporting countries in the analysis, where exports declined by more than imports. 2 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH contraction. Growth leading up to the crisis was higher and the fall deeper in this episode than in previous downturns. Of special interest, the recovery also appears to be much steeper in this crisis than in previous episodes. The graph highlights near completion of a V-shaped recovery. Figure 6 shows that trade has been recovering at almost twice the growth rate of the 2002-2008 period and increased nearly 30 percent since its lowest point in February 2009. While the recovery is impressive, trade value remains around 20 percent lower than the pre-crisis level. U.S. and Japanese data, available by industry, provide an indication of where trade is declining/recovering the fastest. Table 4 shows U.S. import growth by broad sector relative to the same quarter of the previous year. Similar data for Japan (measured in Yen) are shown in Table 5.4 In both countries, data for the 1st quarter of 2010 (column 7) show improvement across sectors as compared with Q1 2009, but this is largely due to the sharp decline in trade that occurred in Q1 2009. The last column shows Q1 2010 relative to Q1 2008, to examine how the pattern of trade now compares with its structure when trade was booming. In the United States, only food and vegetables are at or above their pre-crisis levels; while minerals, wood, metals, and transportation remain over 20 percent below 2008 levels. 5 In Japan, all sectors remain quite depressed with chemicals and foodstuffs doing relatively better. Thus, the results point to significant improvements from early 2009, but large deficits in important sectors continue to point to potential uncertainty in the recovery. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, email mhorenstein@worldbank.org with “Trade Watch� in the subject. For previous notes and more trade statistics visit the Trade Watch webpage at http://www.worldbank.org/research/trade/ 4 Aggregate figures for Japan in Table 6 are calculated from Yen values and therefore are different from Tables 1, 2 and 3 which use data in $US. 5 The growth in aggregate trade differs from the figure reported in Table 3 which has been adjusted for seasonality. 3 Table 1: Quarter-to-Quarter Export Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted – A to L) 2008 2009 2010 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Argentina 2.7 �11.7 24.9 �26.5 �13.2 8.0 �9.8 4.5 �0.1 Australia 9.0 14.5 10.1 �15.1 �9.4 �10.4 7.9 9.5 4.1 Brazil �2.6 11.1 5.1 �12.1 �20.8 10.3 �2.6 5.3 11.1 Bulgaria 10.2 5.8 �6.3 �27.7 �12.5 �0.9 13.0 11.8 �7.7 Canada 5.1 3.7 �1.2 �22.4 �22.0 �3.4 10.1 5.4 6.4 Chile 6.1 �13.0 �7.3 �20.6 �11.6 1.7 14.3 8.4 �1.9 China 3.8 3.0 5.9 �11.3 �16.3 2.5 11.5 8.7 4.2 Croatia 3.2 6.5 8.9 �23.9 �2.2 �3.1 6.6 4.6 7.4 Cyprus 12.0 9.2 �1.3 �19.5 �24.5 10.2 13.2 �4.4 1.2 Czech Republic 14.2 1.0 �4.5 �25.3 �14.8 5.2 16.7 1.6 0.8 Denmark 9.9 3.1 �7.8 �22.2 �8.6 2.8 9.3 0.5 �0.6 Ecuador 7.7 5.5 � 8.4 �34.8 �15.2 14.5 12.8 9.3 1.6 Egypt 34.3 28.6 �11.5 �38.4 7.2 14.4 �0.2 �3.2 4.6 Estonia 4.1 4.7 �4.9 �22.0 �25.1 8.1 9.9 �1.1 �0.2 Finland 9.1 6.3 �11.6 �26.4 �21.3 2.6 0.7 10.9 �14.8 France 11.7 0.7 1.3 �15.2 �10.3 4.0 17.0 4.1 2.7 Germany 7.9 4.1 �5.7 �19.1 �14.4 1.8 12.5 7.4 �2.8 Greece 2.0 11.2 �1.8 �11.7 �12.2 �0.3 4.9 1.0 �2.2 Hong Kong 0.6 �1.1 �0.3 0.7 �17.1 12.5 �2.1 10.5 3.5 Hungary 15.0 �1.2 �7.3 �22.6 �9.9 6.3 12.1 7.3 1.4 Iceland �21.8 50.8 �9.6 �21.4 �29.9 �2.7 33.0 �18.3 �1.7 India 2.4 8.4 4.6 �21.1 �12.3 �2.2 13.0 1.2 7.9 Indonesia 15.4 3.9 �2.5 �19.6 �14.3 13.4 6.9 21.6 7.6 Ireland 6.3 �1.5 �2.9 �9.9 2.2 4.2 0.8 �6.6 7.6 Israel 1.0 4.1 2.2 �20.9 �10.8 10.8 17.6 11.6 �4.2 Italy 12.4 0.7 5.4 �10.4 �11.8 8.2 24.2 12.7 3.1 Japan 8.1 �0.8 0.5 �13.6 �24.7 8.2 16.0 10.4 7.7 Jordan 13.9 15.7 20.1 �8.8 �15.9 �6.2 �4.2 14.1 13.9 Kazakhstan 20.3 1.2 5.8 �35.4 �41.8 �6.0 29.0 3.9 7.0 Korea, Republic of 2.7 9.0 2.8 �22.7 �13.0 15.2 8.7 2.3 4.7 Latvia 8.6 �1.9 �0.3 �24.1 �14.6 �0.4 14.6 8.7 �5.9 Lithuania 24.9 10.7 �4.1 �28.2 �18.9 �4.4 13.4 6.1 �4.1 Luxembourg 10.8 7.3 �0.8 �28.7 �14.3 3.4 28.8 �4.4 �2.8 Average 7.7 4.7 �0.4 �20.8 �14.2 3.7 11.2 6.0 2.5 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Table 1: Quarter-to-Quarter Export Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted – M to Z) 2008 2009 2010 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Malaysia 2.9 6.2 �2.4 �20.1 �14.8 1.5 7.5 16.5 9.2 Malta �1.4 � 10.8 1.3 �15.6 �20.3 6.4 17.1 � 6.7 13.3 Mexico 0.6 2.4 �2.6 �19.8 �13.7 1.1 7.9 12.4 5.5 Netherlands 6.4 2.7 �4.6 �19.9 �13.6 1.6 11.5 3.3 1.3 New Zealand 1.5 �5.7 �1.4 �15.1 �13.4 7.5 8.1 6.9 4.6 Norway 5.3 8.2 �9.4 �24.7 �18.7 �10.1 11.6 7.3 � 3.5 Pakistan 9.0 4.9 �7.7 � 6.7 � 9.5 � 0.4 7.1 12.8 7.5 Peru 8.5 1.2 �5.6 �25.6 �11.2 7.2 6.6 11.3 4.3 Philippines �4.0 �1.1 �2.8 �21.6 �20.1 15.1 8.0 3.1 5.9 Poland 15.0 5.0 �4.5 �26.1 � 8.8 5.9 11.8 2.9 2.5 Portugal 13.7 1.2 1.9 �20.7 �12.5 8.5 20.3 5.3 � 0.3 Romania 7.3 8.0 �3.6 �18.6 �16.1 13.1 15.1 9.3 � 6.1 Russian Federation 10.3 3.0 4.3 �29.9 �29.7 7.8 17.3 10.4 9.6 Singapore 8.5 2.2 �1.8 �23.5 �13.3 7.2 10.4 7.5 6.3 Slovakia 11.7 �4.0 �8.6 �21.2 �14.9 3.7 11.6 10.2 � 4.5 Slovenia 9.3 2.7 �1.5 �18.1 �12.6 5.5 11.7 9.0 � 3.9 South Africa 0.2 7.5 7.2 �27.9 �14.4 5.9 16.6 7.2 1.9 Spain 10.7 3.4 4.0 �20.9 �10.3 10.1 18.4 5.6 1.1 Sweden 7.0 �0.8 �8.3 �26.2 �15.0 3.9 14.2 1.4 3.5 Switzerland 13.9 7.6 �2.1 �14.9 � 5.1 2.6 11.4 3.7 4.9 Taiwan, Province  of China 0.6 3.9 �2.9 �24.9 �15.6 11.6 14.7 7.3 11.0 Thailand 2.9 5.2 �0.2 �19.4 � 6.4 � 1.9 12.0 6.8 8.3 Turkey 14.2 �5.4 5.3 �29.6 � 0.5 �16.3 12.8 4.8 5.2 Ukraine 12.0 24.3 13.2 �34.7 �26.9 0.1 14.9 18.7 � 5.5 United Kingdom 0.5 0.0 1.6 �21.7 �17.2 1.2 15.9 5.4 � 3.5 United States 2.4 1.7 2.1 �13.1 �14.6 � 2.2 8.5 6.8 2.7 Uruguay 20.7 2.8 �2.8 �13.6 � 6.1 14.3 0.4 � 2.4 9.5 Viet Nam 6.6 8.0 9.0 �12.7 3.6 �14.8 1.1 13.7 2.4 Average 7.7 4.7 �0.4 �20.8 �14.2 3.7 11.2 6.0 2.5 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 5 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Table 2: Quarter-to-Quarter Import Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted – A to L) 2008 2009 2010 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Argentina 11.6 2.1 �1.5 �19.6 �25.2 �3.6 8.2 5.0 12.8 Australia 11.4 3.8 �0.3 �21.1 �11.1 0.2 13.6 13.1 0.0 Brazil 8.6 5.3 8.9 �13.7 �24.9 �2.6 12.3 10.0 9.4 Bulgaria 5.4 9.3 �11.2 �24.7 �21.5 �1.9 2.1 � 0.3 �5.8 Canada 0.4 1.8 �2.0 �14.6 �18.6 �2.3 11.3 4.7 2.2 Chile 5.1 2.9 1.2 �19.9 �27.4 �8.2 4.6 12.4 3.4 China 7.1 4.5 2.8 �21.2 �16.5 21.8 15.7 8.8 12.5 Croatia 7.5 �0.6 �0.2 �21.1 �13.2 �2.7 8.2 2.6 �9.3 Cyprus 15.6 0.6 6.2 �27.1 �9.6 �5.7 10.2 � 3.9 9.3 Czech Republic 14.5 �1.4 �4.2 �21.4 �17.1 �1.6 16.6 1.2 3.7 Denmark 7.6 2.1 �6.7 �18.8 �12.6 �7.8 8.4 0.9 �5.0 Ecuador 1.4 10.8 13.3 � 8.7 �18.5 �11.8 7.8 7.5 7.4 Egypt �2.6 62.1 10.8 �10.6 �19.2 �3.7 18.9 2.8 �0.4 Estonia �2.3 �1.8 �1.8 �21.1 �29.8 �5.6 14.3 2.9 �0.8 Finland 6.5 2.8 �7.0 �26.7 �21.5 �4.6 11.3 0.0 �7.6 France 8.0 3.2 �0.6 �17.9 �13.5 1.9 10.2 6.9 �2.4 Germany 8.2 2.8 �1.3 �19.5 �10.8 �3.2 11.6 � 0.5 3.7 Greece 4.8 15.1 �5.7 �27.6 �14.7 �4.3 3.1 � 3.0 �7.2 Hong Kong �2.1 1.0 0.1 � 1.4 �19.0 10.7 5.7 9.5 3.6 Hungary 10.9 �0.9 �4.4 �23.2 �16.7 �0.2 13.6 7.1 �0.9 Iceland �12.2 �7.8 �6.7 �46.2 �11.7 �16.4 20.4 � 6.9 �1.8 India 11.2 8.8 21.1 �25.2 �25.8 �0.4 15.4 10.3 11.6 Indonesia 44.8 11.0 �1.4 �16.6 �26.6 10.6 16.7 13.0 10.6 Ireland �1.3 �3.2 �5.9 �24.2 �6.0 �3.2 �0.3 � 4.7 �2.6 Israel 1.6 1.5 �3.8 �24.6 �23.6 �1.4 12.8 2.7 2.0 Italy 9.5 1.2 2.8 �16.3 �17.6 3.3 16.3 9.7 1.7 Japan 8.0 2.7 4.8 �12.3 �26.0 �5.2 13.4 4.1 4.1 Jordan �0.2 5.4 �4.2 �15.3 �16.5 �0.7 4.1 1.9 �7.5 Kazakhstan �4.6 7.8 10.2 � 7.0 �18.5 �7.8 2.9 7.6 �8.8 Korea, Republic of 5.6 4.6 8.3 �28.3 �20.3 0.3 16.5 2.9 6.8 Latvia 4.7 �9.4 �5.2 �25.4 �21.0 �16.6 9.2 � 0.7 �0.2 Lithuania 27.0 �2.9 �6.0 �29.0 �24.1 �8.4 13.3 1.0 3.7 Luxembourg 7.5 9.7 7.4 �25.6 �16.1 �0.4 17.5 6.6 �4.8 Average 8.3 4.0 �0.4 �21.4 �17.5 �0.5 11.7 4.5 2.5 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 6 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Table 2: Quarter-to-Quarter Import Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted – M to Z) 2008 2009 2010 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Malaysia 3.0 �1.8 0.3 �18.7 �21.3 7.9 12.3 13.9 2.5 Malta �1.4 0.3 10.3 �38.9 �0.8 �7.1 26.5 �17.1 10.7 Mexico 3.0 0.1 2.6 �18.7 �16.5 �4.3 12.8 3.1 10.0 Netherlands 10.0 3.2 �4.0 �20.9 �13.4 0.3 10.0 4.5 0.5 New Zealand 2.2 4.3 �5.4 �20.8 �21.9 10.9 6.8 2.4 �0.3 Norway 3.7 �4.5 �5.7 �21.7 �13.2 �1.5 12.3 5.6 1.3 Pakistan 30.9 �3.7 �13.4 �11.6 �6.9 10.5 �2.0 8.4 16.9 Peru 17.9 14.3 2.3 �17.1 �20.5 �6.3 8.2 8.8 12.4 Philippines 2.4 �8.4 2.0 �24.9 �7.6 0.0 1.8 2.3 19.4 Poland 13.3 2.4 �2.9 �23.7 �19.5 0.4 11.8 1.7 2.5 Portugal 9.1 �0.7 �0.4 �21.5 �13.3 1.4 20.2 2.9 �5.0 Romania 7.5 3.9 �1.5 �30.3 �22.1 1.2 14.3 �4.8 0.4 Russian Federation 13.7 13.1 8.8 �16.3 �17.9 3.8 11.4 12.9 8.4 Singapore 9.9 3.5 �1.0 �22.1 �16.6 1.4 12.0 5.2 7.6 Slovakia 10.2 �4.6 �9.3 �21.6 �12.0 �5.7 12.5 5.9 2.1 Slovenia 8.1 3.2 �1.7 �23.4 �17.7 �0.8 13.4 1.3 �2.9 South Africa 1.1 �1.4 8.2 �30.7 �12.8 �12.8 14.5 14.3 �0.3 Spain 5.7 �3.2 �3.5 �23.8 �17.0 �4.4 17.4 2.4 �2.9 Sweden 9.3 4.3 �10.5 �28.0 �13.4 1.2 14.4 4.3 5.7 Switzerland 8.3 6.2 �3.1 �17.0 �2.2 �1.1 11.3 2.5 3.4 Taiwan, Province  of China 5.5 2.0 7.0 �31.3 �30.1 16.5 22.5 10.8 8.0 Thailand 10.6 �2.8 10.5 �15.9 �32.8 5.3 20.1 12.1 2.9 Turkey 5.4 �3.8 3.6 �32.0 �17.2 0.7 16.3 4.4 8.0 Ukraine 18.9 21.1 8.6 �31.1 �22.0 0.9 19.1 13.3 �0.8 United Kingdom 0.7 0.6 �4.9 �20.5 �16.0 2.7 8.3 5.2 �2.6 United States 1.0 1.0 0.5 �16.1 �19.8 �3.0 9.5 4.9 3.2 Uruguay 39.8 44.1 �26.1 �15.1 �20.9 16.3 1.0 �2.9 0.7 Viet Nam 27.1 �3.3 �16.9 �14.7 �6.4 16.5 10.3 12.4 �2.8 Average 8.3 4.0 �0.4 �21.4 �17.5 �0.5 11.7 4.5 2.5 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 7 Table 3: Growth from Q1 2008 to Q1 2010 (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted – A to K) Exports Imports Exports Imports Argentina �28.5 �25.3 Philippines �18.2 �19.4 Australia 6.8 �6.7 Poland �15.6 �28.6 Brazil 2.1 �2.2 Portugal �1.9 �19.8 Bulgaria �27.7 �46.1 Romania �4.9 �38.6 Canada �26.1 �19.4 Russian Federation �19.1 19.7 Chile �30.0 �32.4 Singapore �10.0 �14.4 China 4.9 21.8 Slovakia �28.4 �31.5 Croatia 0.2 �33.4 Slovenia �10.4 �29.1 Cyprus �20.9 �23.2 South Africa �4.1 �26.6 Czech Republic �22.7 �25.9 Spain 6.2 �34.2 Denmark �24.0 �35.2 Sweden �28.9 �25.8 Ecuador �23.3 2.6 Switzerland 5.8 �2.7 Egypt �13.0 52.1 Taiwan, Province  of China �2.5 �10.5 Estonia �31.7 �41.2 Thailand 0.6 �11.4 Finland �46.8 �46.1 Turkey �27.4 �25.9 France 0.9 �14.6 Ukraine �13.4 �4.5 Germany �18.7 �18.7 United Kingdom �21.4 �27.2 Greece �12.6 �40.4 United States �10.4 �21.5 Hong Kong 3.8 7.2 Uruguay �0.6 �17.9 Hungary �17.1 �27.1 Viet Nam 6.8 �9.9 Iceland �22.0 �62.4 India �5.4 3.5 Indonesia 10.5 8.1 Ireland �7.0 �41.8 Israel 4.4 �34.6 Italy 31.0 �3.7 Japan �3.2 �18.7 Jordan 24.3 �30.5 Kazakhstan �45.8 �16.1 Korea, Republic of 1.1 �16.8 Latvia �26.1 �54.2 Lithuania �31.8 �46.6 Luxembourg �19.5 �12.7 Malaysia �2.0 �10.8 Malta �20.0 �27.7 Mexico �10.8 �14.7 Netherlands �19.6 �21.3 New Zealand �11.2 �26.1 Norway �37.7 �27.5 Pakistan 5.7 �5.7 Peru �16.2 �4.4 Average �11.9 �19.6 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Table 4: U.S. Import Growth by Industry (Percentage Change in U.S. dollars relative to same quarter previous year) 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2010 rel Industry Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 to Q1 2008 Animal & Animal Products -0.42 -1.85 -8.04 -7.50 -15.23 -13.06 -1.21 -9.15 Vegetable Products 24.08 11.94 -6.36 -13.20 -13.94 -7.49 5.95 -0.79 Foodstuffs 12.98 3.18 -5.00 -8.63 -11.33 -3.21 10.58 5.05 Mineral Products 57.57 -13.36 -51.40 -54.02 -48.72 -14.24 55.44 -24.45 Chemicals & Allied Industries 23.82 8.19 -13.32 -17.79 -17.08 -3.31 11.14 -3.67 Plastics / Rubbers 8.73 0.69 -22.48 -27.00 -23.31 -14.27 20.19 -6.82 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 1.27 -5.09 -14.64 -22.91 -27.33 -16.65 4.23 -11.02 Wood & Wood Products -8.86 -13.94 -26.51 -30.12 -27.08 -17.67 5.33 -22.59 Textiles -2.52 -4.83 -13.27 -16.37 -14.36 -8.74 4.45 -9.40 Footwear / Headgear 3.05 0.98 -7.31 -13.98 -13.67 -8.08 2.36 -5.12 Stone / Glass 6.05 -19.58 -36.80 -31.86 -25.78 9.27 38.02 -12.77 Metals 16.33 4.40 -26.57 -50.20 -51.83 -36.26 2.23 -24.93 Machinery / Electrical 4.25 -11.04 -22.35 -24.24 -19.14 0.24 15.53 -10.29 Transportation -10.33 -23.18 -46.68 -46.07 -24.16 -0.58 44.25 -23.08 Miscellaneous 1.36 -6.11 -18.38 -22.45 -16.22 -9.16 11.34 -9.12 Total 14.56 -9.03 -29.88 -34.32 -28.87 -7.88 21.40 -14.87 Source: U.S.I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Table 5: Japan’s Import Growth by Industry (Percentage Change in Japanese Yen relative to same quarter previous year) 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2010 rel Industry Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 to Q1 2008 Animal & Animal Products 8.89 -2.69 -15.75 -18.17 -24.85 -20.24 -5.37 -20.27 Vegetable Products 32.26 3.80 -27.25 -32.01 -36.08 -27.33 2.80 -25.22 Foodstuffs -3.71 -7.68 -7.86 -12.55 -11.63 -10.12 -1.77 -9.49 Mineral Products 59.13 -5.93 -47.90 -54.84 -54.19 -29.45 31.67 -31.39 Chemicals & Allied Industries 13.18 -1.55 -21.05 -22.02 -18.48 -8.95 21.31 -4.22 Plastics / Rubbers 11.46 1.49 -31.59 -37.42 -33.84 -24.58 20.52 -17.55 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs -8.04 -17.81 -16.16 -23.52 -20.65 -15.14 -9.42 -24.06 Wood & Wood Products -1.62 -4.31 -17.87 -25.33 -28.87 -20.28 2.47 -15.84 Textiles -1.52 -4.19 -6.72 -11.62 -14.42 -12.54 -7.97 -14.15 Footwear / Headgear 2.25 -2.45 -5.81 -6.77 -13.56 -18.94 -8.51 -13.83 Stone / Glass 6.63 -19.09 -47.89 -48.59 -43.74 -26.33 30.54 -31.97 Metals 4.70 -10.56 -47.95 -64.33 -56.51 -37.28 25.08 -34.89 Machinery / Electrical -3.59 -17.91 -37.26 -29.54 -26.86 -12.09 24.58 -21.85 Transportation 5.52 -32.51 -43.37 -45.80 -42.78 1.04 0.26 -43.23 Miscellaneous -4.33 -14.57 -30.03 -26.06 -23.51 -13.28 15.81 -18.97 Total 21.30 -9.63 -37.07 -40.38 -39.93 -21.07 19.10 -25.05 Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations. 9 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Figure 1: Quarterly Export Growth* by Region 20 Previous Current 15 10 5 0 EUR ECA NOA EAP LCR SAS �5 �10 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 4th quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 in “Current� and from the 3rd quarter of 2009 to the 4th quarter of 2009 in “Previous�; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 2: Quarterly Import Growth* by Region 20 Previous 15 Current 10 5 0 EUR ECA NOA EAP LCR SAS �5 �10 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 4th quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 in “Current� and from the 3rd quarter of 2009 to the 4th quarter of 2009 in “Previous�; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. 10 Seasonally adjusted growth from the 4th quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 in “Current� and from the 3rd 11 quarter of 2009 to the 4th quarter of 2009 in “Previous�; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Jordan Philippines Malta Pakistan Brazil Argentina quarter of 2009 to the 4th quarter of 2009 in “Previous�; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and Taiwan, Province  of China China Seasonally adjusted growth from the 4th quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 in “Current� and from the 3rd Russian Federation Peru Uruguay India Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Malaysia Malta Thailand Indonesia India Mexico Japan Brazil Ireland Cyprus Indonesia Russian Federation Pakistan Turkey Figure 4: Quarterly Import Growth by Country Figure 3: Quarterly Export Growth by Country Croatia Taiwan, Province  of China Kazakhstan Singapore Canada Ecuador Singapore Korea, Republic of Philippines Sweden 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Mexico Japan Turkey Lithuania Switzerland Germany Korea, Republic of Czech Republic New Zealand Hong Kong Egypt Chile Peru Switzerland China United States Australia Thailand Sweden Malaysia Current Current Hong Kong Poland Italy Canada United States Slovakia France Israel Previous Previous Poland Italy Viet Nam Norway South Africa Uruguay Ecuador Netherlands Hungary Romania Netherlands Australia Cyprus Latvia Spain New Zealand Czech Republic South Africa Argentina Egypt deflated using U.S. consumer price index. deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Estonia Estonia Portugal Ukraine Denmark Hungary Iceland Iceland Chile France Greece Ireland Luxembourg United Kingdom Germany Viet Nam Norway Slovenia United Kingdom Spain Slovenia Luxembourg Lithuania Denmark Israel Portugal Slovakia Bulgaria Ukraine Greece Latvia Jordan Romania Finland Bulgaria Kazakhstan Finland Croatia 5 0 �5 5 0 �5 25 20 15 10 �10 �15 �20 �25 25 20 15 10 �10 �15 �20 1st QUARTER 2010 TRADE WATCH Figure 5: Month-Over-Month Trade Growth, Now and Then 30 20 10 0 �48 �44 �40 �36 �32 �28 �24 �20 �16 �12 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 �8 �4 0 4 8 �10 �20 Current �30 Past Mean �40 Past Median �50 Source: Datastream, I.M.F., U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and author’s calculations. Data in US dollars for a balanced sample of 39 countries, deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 6: Natural Logarithm of World Imports 28.2 28 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27 26.8 26.6 26.4 2000m1 2000m5 2000m9 2001m1 2001m5 2001m9 2002m1 2002m5 2002m9 2003m1 2003m5 2003m9 2004m1 2004m5 2004m9 2005m1 2005m5 2005m9 2006m1 2006m5 2006m9 2007m1 2007m5 2007m9 2008m1 2008m5 2008m9 2009m1 2009m5 2009m9 2010m1 Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations using a balanced sample of 59 economies reporting data. Imports are in current US dollars. 12