¿OQCÓd …OÉ°üàb’G ó°UôŸG JORDAN ECONOMIC MONITOR á«LQÉÿG IQÉéà∏d iƒbCG AGOCG ƒëf TOWARDS STRONGER EXTERNAL TRADE PERFORMANCE 2107 ∞jôN Fall 2017 É«≤jôaCG ∫ɪ°Th §°ShC’G ¥ô°ûdG á≤£æe MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION ‹hódG ∂æÑdG The World Bank The World Bank JEM Fall 2017 EX Summary_3.indd 2-3 12/19/17 2:08 PM THE WORLD BANK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY q …ò«ØæJ ¢üî∏e i. Jordan’s economic performance remains iii. The labor market continues to face high á©ØJôe ádÉ£H ä’ó©e ó¡°ûj πª©dG ¥ƒ°S ∫Gõj ’h .iii 2017 ΩÉY ‘ kÉ°†Øîæe ÊOQC’G …OÉ°üàb’G AGOC’G »≤H .i tempered in 2017 while the fiscal adjustment is unemployment and low participation as the ƒ‰ ¿RGƒJ ∫ÉM ‘ OÉ°üàb’G π¶j å«M ,áØ«©°V ácQÉ°ûeh äGQÉ°TEG qøμd ,áeÉ©dG á«dÉŸG ´É°VhCG í«ë°üJ á«∏ªY π°UGƒJ π q X‘ in progress; yet there are positive signs on the economy remains in a low growth equilibrium. A ‘ äGAÉ°üME’G IôFGO É¡JóYCG IójóL á«é¡æe âØ°ûch .¢†Øîæe »∏ëŸG œÉædG ƒ‰ π°üj ¿CG ™b q ƒàŸG øeh .≥aC’G ‘ äR n ôH á«HÉéjEG horizon. Real GDP growth for 2017 is expected to new methodology by the Department of Statistics as ‘ áFÉŸG ‘ 18^1 ≠∏H ádÉ£ÑdG ∫ó©e ¿CG 2017 ΩÉY øe ∫hC’G ™HôdG 0^1 IOÉjõH …CG ,áFÉŸG ‘ 2^1 ¤EG 2017 ΩÉ©d »≤«≤◊G ‹ÉªLE’G reach 2.1 percent, just a 0.1 percentage point (pp) of Q1-2017 revealed that unemployment averaged iƒ≤dG ácQÉ°ûe §°Sƒàe ≠∏H ÚM ‘ ,2017 ΩÉY øe ∫hC’G ∞°üædG ∫GõJ ’ ,¢Vô©dG ó«©°U ≈∏Yh .2016 ΩÉ©H á k fQÉ≤e ájƒÄe á£≤f increase from 2016. On the supply side, services 18.1 percent in the first half of 2017 (H1-2017), while continue to be the principal driver of GDP growth, labor force participation averaged 39.7 percent. Both ¢ùfÉéàdG ΩóY ¿É°ùμ©j ¿Gô°TDƒŸG ∫Gõj ’h .áFÉŸG ‘ 39^7 á∏eÉ©dG ,‹ÉªLE’G »∏ëŸG œÉædG ƒªæd »°ù«FôdG ∑ô q ëŸG »g äÉeóÿG and these are propelled by a robust performance indicators continue to reflect acute gender-based ‘ πª©dG ¥ƒ°S ‘ ÜÉÑ°ûdG ¢û«ª¡Jh ¢ùæ÷G ´ƒf ≈∏Y ºFÉ≤dG OÉ◊G ´É£≤dG ó«©à°ùj ¿CG ™b q ƒàŸG øeh .áMÉ«°ùdG ´É£≤d …ƒ≤dG AGOC’G ÉgRqõ©j in tourism. Jordan’s industrial sector is expected to heterogeneity and youth marginalization in Jordan’s .¿OQC’G ∫Ó¨à°SGh øjó©àdG ¢TÉ©àfG Aƒ°V ≈∏Y Ék ªNR ÊOQC’G »YÉæ°üdG regain momentum based on a recovery in mining labor market. ,Ö∏£dG ó«©°U ≈∏Yh .¢SÉJƒÑdG QÉ©°SCG ¢VÉØîfG ôKCG »°TÓJh ,ôLÉëŸG and quarrying as the effect of the drop in potash ájó≤fh á«dÉe äÉ°SÉ«°Sh Ö©°U »ª«∏bEG ó¡°ûe π q X ‘h .iv ¤EG áaÉ°VE’ÉH ¢UÉÿG Qɪãà°S’Gh ∑Ó¡à°S’G …ODƒj ¿CG ™bƒàŸG øe prices starts dissipating. On the demand side, iv. With a challenging regional outlook and private consumption and investment in addition contractionary fiscal and monetary policies in »∏ëŸG œÉædG ƒ‰ ‘ …ƒb ¢TÉ©àfG ™b q ƒJ Ö©°üdG øe ,á«°TɪμfG »∏ëŸG œÉædG ƒ‰ ∂jô– ¤EG äÉeóÿGh ™∏°ùdG äGQOÉ°U ‘É°U to net exports of goods and services are projected place, it is difficult to foresee a strong recovery ¿EG .á«∏μ«¡dG ájOÉ°üàb’G äÉMÓ°UE’G á∏°UGƒe ¿hO ‹ÉªLE’G Qɪãà°S’Gh ΩÉ©dG ∑Ó¡à°S’G ôKDƒj ¿CG ™bƒàŸG øe ¬fCG ÒZ .‹ÉªLE’G to lead GDP growth. The combination of public in GDP growth without continuation of structural ¥ÉaBG Ú°ù– √ÉŒÉH ÒÿÉH ô°ûÑj ¥Gô©dG ™e IQÉéàdG ¥ôW íàa IOÉYEG œÉædG ƒ‰ OɪàYG πãÁh .‹ÉªLE’G »∏ëŸG œÉædG ƒ‰ ≈∏Y Ék Ñ∏°S ΩÉ©dG consumption and public investment are expected economic reforms. The reopening of trade routes ¬Lƒe q ÊOQC’G OÉ°üàb’G ¿CG ¤EG ô¶ædÉH øμdh .Qɪãà°S’Gh ∑Ó¡à°S’G Gk Ò«¨J ,ΩÉ©dG Ö∏£dG πHÉ≤e ‘ ,¢UÉÿG Ö∏£dG ≈∏Y ‹ÉªLE’G »∏ëŸG to be a drag on GDP growth. The reliance of GDP with Iraq bodes well in improving consumption and »é«∏ÿG ¿hÉ©àdG ¢ù∏› ∫hO ‘ ¥Gƒ°SC’G ºYO ƒëf ,êQÉÿG ƒëf RôëŸG Ωó q ≤à∏d áé«àfh .2014 ΩÉY òæe ƒªædG •É‰CÉH á k fQÉ≤e Gk ó«ªM growth on private demand, as opposed to public investment sentiments. However, given that the demand, is a welcomed change from growth orientation of the Jordanian economy is outward ôKq Dƒj 𶫰S »ª«∏bE’G iƒà°ùŸG ≈∏Y ™LGÎdG ¿EÉa ,¥Gô©dGh ÉjQƒ°Sh …QÉ÷G ÜÉ°ù◊G õéY ¢†Øîæj ¿CG ™bƒàŸG øe ,äGQOÉ°üdG ‘É°U ‘ patterns since 2014. As a result of the progress in looking and geared to supporting markets in the ≈∏Y ÊOQC’G »∏μdG OÉ°üàb’G ∞©°V ™Ñæjh .ÊOQC’G OÉ°üàb’G ≈∏Y .‹ÉªLE’G »∏ëŸG œÉædG øe áFÉŸG ‘ 8^8 ¤EG net exports, the current account deficit is projected Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Syria and Iraq, äÉLÉ«àMG ódq ƒJ IÒÑc á«LQÉNh á«∏NGO ä’ÓàNG øe πjƒ£dG ióŸG to narrow slightly to 8.8 percent of GDP. the regional downturn will continue to affect the øeh .á«dhódG äGóYÉ°ùŸG ∫ÓN øe IOÉY É¡à«Ñ∏J ºàj ,IÒÑc á«∏jƒ“ ≈ëæe ¿OQC’G ‘ ájó≤ædGh á«dÉŸG äÉ°SÉ«°ùdG òîà qJ .ii n economy. Jordan’s long-term macroeconomic ≥«ª©J ¤EG ¿OQC’G êÉàëj ,…OÉ°üàb’Gh ‹ÉŸG QGô≤à°S’G ¿Éª°V πLCG ¿ƒμJ ¿CG ™bƒàŸG øe ΩÉ©dG ájÉ¡f èFÉàf ¿CG øe ºZôdG ≈∏Y ,kÉ«°TɪμfG ii. Jordan’s fiscal and monetary policies are vulnerability stems from sizable internal and external taking a contractionary stance, though the year end imbalances that generate large financing needs, πLCG øe πª©dG ¢Uôa ≥∏Nh ∫OÉ©dG ƒªædG ≥«≤– √ÉŒÉH äÉMÓ°U’G ìÓ°UE’G èeÉfôH øe ºZôdG ≈∏Y ,‹ÉŸG ó«©°üdG ≈∏Yh .á£∏àfl outcomes are expected to be mixed. On the fiscal which are typically met via international assistance. ´É£≤dG ¤EG ∞FÉXƒdG ≥∏N AÖY πjƒ–h OÉ°üàb’G IAÉØc õjõ©J ¥hóæ°üd Oó q ªŸG ÊɪàFE’G π«¡°ùàdG èeÉfôH øe πjƒªàH ܃ë°üŸG side, despite the restraint complemented by financing In order to ensure financial and economic stability, OóL AÉcô°T ™e á«fOQC’G ôjó°üàdG äGóFÉY ™«°SƒJ q¿EG ɪc .¢UÉÿG ‘ 6^4 ¤EG ‹ÉªLE’G ‹ÉŸG õé©dG π°üj ¿CG ™b q ƒàj ,‹hódG ó≤ædG from the International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Jordan needs to deepen its equitable growth and job .≈©°ùŸG Gòg øe Gk AõL ¿ƒμj ¿CG Öéj ≈∏YCG IOƒL äGP äÉéàæe hCG OƒcôdG ÖÑ°ùH ,(íæŸG AÉæãà°SÉH) ‹ÉªLE’G »∏ëŸG œÉædG øe áFÉŸG Facility (IMF-EFF), the overall fiscal deficit is expected creation reforms to enhance the efficiency of the ÉeCG .™bƒàŸG øe ∞©°VCG äAÉL ájOÉ°üàbG èFÉàf ó©H äGOGôjE’G ‘ to reach 6.4 percent of GDP (excluding grants), owing economy and shift the burden of job creation to the to stagnant performance on the revenue side following private sector. Expanding Jordan’s export revenues º««≤J AGôLEÉH Ωƒ≤f ,ôjó°üàdG ≈∏Y ¿OQC’G IQób ¢SÉ«≤dh .v …òdG ,‹É◊G …ó≤ædG QÉWE’G iOCG ó≤a ,ájó≤ædG á°SÉ«°ùdG ó«©°U ≈∏Y a weaker than expected economy. On the monetary with new partners or higher quality products will á«YÉæ°üdG äGQOÉ°üdG ¢†©H á«Yƒfh ᫪c ™«°SƒJ äÉfÉμeEG Oqóëj ,IóFÉØdG QÉ©°SCG IOÉjR ¤EG ,»μjôeC’G Q’hódÉH §HôdG ¤EG óæà°ùj policy side, the peg to the US$ has led to an increase need to be part of that agenda as well. áé«àædGh .(¢UÉN ôjô≤J) ¢ùHÓŸG äGQOÉ°Uh IOqóëŸG á«YGQõdGh …õcôŸG ∂æÑdG ™aQ óbh .»cÒeC’G …õcôŸG ∂æÑdG á°SÉ«°S ™e Ék «°TÉ“ in interest rates, tracking the FED. The Central Bank of á©HQCG ódq ƒj ¿CG øμÁ »YGQõdG ´É£≤dG ‘ Qɪãà°S’G ¿CG »g RôHC’G ádhÉfi ‘ 2016 Ȫ°ùjO òæe äGôe ™HQCG IóFÉØdG QÉ©°SCG ÊOQC’G Jordan raised interest rates four times since December v. To gauge Jordan’s exporting aptitude, .ÊOQC’G OÉ°üàb’G ‘ ´É£≤∏d áaÉ°†ŸG ᪫≤dG ±É©°VCG ¥É«°S ‘ ∂dP AÉL óbh .ÊOQC’G QÉæjódG á«HPÉL ≈∏Y ®ÉØë∏d 2016 in attempts to maintain the attractiveness of we undertake an assessment that quantifies the the Jordanian Dinar. This was in the context of lower potential for expanding the quantity and quality of ™°Vh ɇ IôdhódG ä’ó q ©e ´ÉØJQGh á«ÑæLC’G äÉ≤aóàdG ¢VÉØîfG foreign inflows and higher dollarization rates putting some specific industrial, apparel and agricultural â°†ØîfG »àdG …õcôŸG ∂æÑ∏d á«ÑæLC’G äÉ«WÉ«àM’G ≈∏Y Ék Wƒ¨°V downward pressures on central bank foreign reserves exports (Special Focus). The most striking result ∫OÉ©j Ée …CG) 2017 ôHƒàcCG ájÉ¡f ‘ »μjôeCG Q’hO QÉ«∏e 11^7 ¤EG which declined to US$11.7 billion by end-October is that investing in the agricultural sector could .(Égôjó°üJ OÉ©ŸG äGQOÉ°üdG AÉæãà°SÉH ,äGOQGƒdG øe ô¡°TCG 6^6 2017 (equivalent to 6.6 months of imports, excluding generate four times the value added of the sector in ,Ék ª¡e Ék °TÉ©àfG á«°ù«FôdG ∂∏¡à°ùŸG QÉ©°SCG äô¡XCG ,¬°ùØf âbƒdG ‘h re-exports). Meanwhile, headline consumer prices the economy. showed a significant recovery, although largely due to §N q¿CG ¤EG ÒÑc óM ¤EG ™Lôj ¢TÉ©àf’G Gòg ¿CG øe ºZôdG ≈∏Y low-base effects. k °UCG Ék «fóàe ¿Éc ¢SÉ°SC’G .Ó The World Bank JEM Fall 2017 EX Summary_3.indd 4-5 12/19/17 2:08 PM