88112 v.1 April 24, 2009 The External Environment for Developing Countries April 2009 Overview First signs of stabilization? While recent figures for industrial production show declines unabated (OECD output fell 34% annualized in the three months to February (saar)), first signs of a moderation in the rate of decline or even stabilization of activity are now more apparent. Business surveys in the United States and Germany improved; production in China and several East Asian NIEs increased and several metals prices rebounded. Fed policy has had, to a large degree, intended effects on interest rates. And among “green shoots” discernable in the United States are improvements in retail turnover, home sales and factory orders. But recovery has a long way to go, as collapse of global production over the past six months reversed more-than four years of strong growth which preceded September 2008. U.S. interest rate developments “Green shoots” suggest Fed actions are having effect sprouting in the U.S. economy? USD-LIBOR and EURIBOR, 3 months, percent Retail and IP, home sales, CPI and exports, ch% 3mma y/y 5.0 5 4.5 4.0 0 3.5 Treasury 10- yr 3.0 -5 2.5 -10 2.0 Third quarter 2008 1.5 Fourth quarter 2008 -15 Fed Funds, effective USD-LIBOR 2009 yr to date 1.0 0.5 -20 Retail sales Existing CPI inflation Mfgr Export 0.0 home sales production vo lumes Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury through Thomson/Datastream. Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. External financing needs concentrated in the corporate sector of developing countries. An incipient external financing gap for many developing countries is one of the pressing challenges in the current global environment, amounting to an estimated $500 billion. During the first quarter of 2009 cross-border bank lending to developing countries and IPO issuance from these economies were down 80% and 60% respectively from year earlier levels. Sovereigns nevertheless were able to access international bond markets, boosting issuance for the first months of the year to $18 billion. But they may face competition in coming months from OECD economies needing to finance large stimulus programs. U.S. capital flows for Jan-February 2009 recorded net outflow of $15 billion contrasted with inflow of $110 billion in the like period of 2008, which could lead prospectively to increases in U.S. long-term interest rates, a weaker dollar—or both. OPEC oil production at 5-year lows. Compliance with the OPEC agreement to remove 4.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market has reached 83% of membership; and OPEC’s spare capacity has increased to 5.5mb/d. This has compensated for the 3.2mb/d decline in global demand during the first quarter of 2009 (a drop of 3.7%, q/q) serving to hold prices close to $50/bbl in the last months. This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange, overall edits), John Baffes (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 2 Global Indicators Global Indicators (Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified) 2007 2008 2009f 2010f GDP volume: World 3.8 1.9 -1.7 0.9 2.3 3.0 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 4.7 3.1 -0.6 1.9 2.9 4.2 High-income countries 2.6 0.8 -2.9 -0.1 1.6 2.0 Developing countries 8.2 5.8 2.1 4.4 4.4 6.0 Industrial production: World 4.5 0.5 ... ... High-income countries 2.5 -1.8 ... ... Developing countries 9.8 6.3 ... ... Export volume (GNFS): World 7.6 4.1 -6.1 --2.1 3.9 6.0 High-income countries 6.4 2.9 -8.0 -3.7 3.6 5.1 Developing countries 10.7 7.1 -4.6 2.1 4.3 8.1 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 7.5 1.9 1.0 Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 47.2 47.8 52.7 Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -32.0 -30 -2.5 -1.6 Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.50 3.20 1.60 1.9 2.3 LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.50 4.80 2.20 2.30 2.0 2.8 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 520 562 385 ... Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 389 158 197 ... Equity placement ($bn) 194 68 33 1 ... Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 71 88 ... Lending ($bn) 312 257 54 109 ... Source: DECPG, April 2009. Estimates and projections based on GEP-2009 Update, released 3-31-2009. Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2009 based on year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 3 United States U.S. equity rally: running ahead of the data? Indexes: 100 on January 1, 2009 “Green shoots”. Since troughs on March 9 the 115 Dow Jones increased 24%, bested by gains in 110 NASDAQ at 30%, part of a global rally that has its NASDAQ 105 roots in several developments. The G-20 Heads-of- 100 State Meeting in early April yielded positive outturns 95 and market reactions regarding increased funding for 90 the IMF; complemented by earlier statements from 85 U.S. Treasury that defined new sets of “ground 80 rules” for financial regulation. But of equal Dow Jones 75 importance has been a series of more favorable 70 indicators for the U.S. economy, which broadly Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 suggest that the rate of decline in activity is easing. Source: Thomson/Datastream. Labor markets. Developments encouraging U.S. retail sales bottom-out despite markets have included retail sales surprising to the substantial job- and income losses upside in January and February, before slipping to retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] 400 15 decline in March. Sharp adjustment in the labor 10 market continues with the unemployment rate Retail sales [L] 200 5 breaching 25-year highs in March (8.5%). And loss 0 0 of jobs and income will dampen spending for some -5 time. But signs that the falloff in manufacturing and -200 -10 Change in services activity are occurring at a less severe pace -15 employment [R] -400 are now widespread: ISM and Federal Reserve -20 surveys are more upbeat, factory orders picked up in -600 February and industrial output fell at a less steep -25 -30 -800 (though still substantial) 1.5% pace in March. Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. Housing. Sales of existing homes are a brighter spot, with a 4.4% increase in March (m/m) (though Some progress in U.S. home sales the gain was drawn-back in April), in tandem with a ...but foreclosures still boost supply shift to record highs in the National Association of sales of new and existing homes ch% 3mma y/y [L]; NAR AI [R] Realtors’ ‘Home Affordability’ index, reflecting lower 0 160 home prices and mortgage rates. However, sales of New home sales [L] -10 new homes remain plagued by excess supply, 140 standing 45% below year-earlier levels, but -20 purchases also increased in February (4.7%). -30 120 Record foreclosures continue to boost the supply of homes and increase the level of uncertainty as to -40 100 when a “bottoming” in home prices might be in sight. -50 And difficulties are coming to the fore in the NAR Af fordability index [R] Existing home sales [L] commercial and industrial real estate sectors, tied to -60 80 the economic downturn and lack of financing. Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Sources: Department of Commerce, National Assn Realtors. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 4 Japan Japanese conditions remain weak Slack conditions. Economic conditions in Japan corporate services prices, all-sector index [L], Tankan [R] are moribund at best. Business continued to cut 3 30 spending in February, as output (the all-sector index) in construction-, industrial and services sectors 15 0 declined 2% in the month (m/m), shifting to an 8.2% 0 year-on-year falloff. In step with this development, Corporate services prices (ch% y/ y) [L] Japan’s corporate service prices fell 2.1% in March -3 -15 (y/y) suggesting deflationary tendencies in the All- sector index (ch% y/y) [L] -30 economy could be mounting. And business capital -6 spending intentions, gauged from the BOJ’s Tankan -45 Tankan (Large Mfgr business conditions) [R] survey for the first quarter, look to be the worst on -9 -60 record, with the current conditions index for major J an -07 Ma y-0 7 S e p-07 J a n-08 May -08 Se p-0 8 J an-09 manufacturers plunging to minus-58 from minus-24 Source: Japan Cabinet Office, BOJ. in the final quarter of 2008. Japan exports and production declines Harbinger of a trade turnaround? Machinery flattening– but well “underwater” orders unexpectedly increased in February, ending a goods export volume [L] and industrial output [R] ch% (saar) 6 month string of sharp declines. Foreign orders 50 10 retreated 22.9% (y/y) but eased from a 49% drop in Mfgr outpu t [right] 0 January. On an encouraging note, exports picked-up 25 -10 2.2% in March (m/m), offering the first uptick in sales 0 in over a year; and the pace of shipments growth to -20 China and the United States eased from recent -25 -30 substantial decline. Export volumes “improved” to -40 decline of 60% (saar) for the first quarter of 2009 -50 from a 63% contraction in the 3 months to February. Export volumes [left] -50 But with only nascent soundings for a revival in -75 -60 J an-0 7 Ma y -07 S ep- 07 Ja n-08 M a y-0 8 Se p-0 8 J an-0 9 exports, manufacturing output continued to contract, also dropping 60% in the three-months to February Source: Japan Cabinet Office. (saar). Against this background, the GOJ is planning a new ¥15 trillion stimulus package to counter fallout Japanese household sentiment from the dismal performance of the export sector. on the economy continues to sour household expenditure growth (y/y) [L]; Tokyo confidence index [R] 3 50 Households on hold. Japanese unemployment 2 HH expenditure [left] increased to a 3-year high of 4.4% in February from 45 4.1% in January as steep declines in exports and 1 production are leading firms to layoff increasing 0 40 numbers of workers—first temporary (or “contract” -1 labor) moving now into the established full-time -2 35 ranks of the labor force. Overall consumer -3 Tokyo sentiment confidence is plumbing new depths. And household 3mma [right] 30 -4 spending has returned to negative ground, dropping -5 25 a full 4.4% in February (y/y). Against this background Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Japan’s recession is likely to remain deep moving in Source: Japan Cabinet Office. the second quarter of the year. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 5 Euro Area Euro Area Q4-GDP revised to decline GDP mark-down. A 5.7% contraction in fourth of 6.2% on trade and investment quarter GDP (saar) for the Euro Zone has turned out growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points to be larger still, after revisions by Eurostat. Data 2 show output declining 6.2% in the quarter (saar) and by 1.5% year-on-year, the biggest falloffs since 0 -1.0 1995. Investment was hit much harder by financial and demand conditions, dropping 15.2% in the -2 quarter against 10% (saar) estimated earlier. Net -4 exports exerted drag to GDP of 3.4 points, up from Stocks Government -5.7 2.9 points earlier. But in contrast, consumer -6.2 -6 Consumption spending (reported at a 3.4% decline) was marked Investment Net Exports up to a 1.2% fall, as outlays in Germany and France -8 were more buoyant. Ireland was hardest hit, with Q3-2008 Q4-2008-P Q4-2008-R GDP diving 25% in the quarter (saar); Germany Source: Eurostat contracted 8.1% and France’4.3% (saar). European unemployment begins Indicators mixed. PMI surveys covering Euro- to pick up quickly on soft economy Area factory and service sectors for March and April number of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] display similar results those for the United States— 13.5 8.5 Unemployment rate [R] the rate at which activity is falling is starting to ease. 13.0 The composite PMI jumped from 33.5 in February to 8.0 12.5 38.3 in March, rising further to 40.5 in April. But evidence mounts that weak domestic demand, 12.0 7.5 exports and production are now taking a toll on 11.5 employment. The number of unemployed jumped 11.0 20% in February to 12.1 million, the highest in three 7.0 years, with the unemployment rate up to 8.5% in 10.5 # of unemployed [L] February from 8.3% in January. Producer prices are 10.0 6.5 in negative territory and retail has faltered once more Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 in February. Partly in response, the ECB cut its Source: Eurostat. intervention rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% lowest German factory orders moving levels since 1999. towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar Bottom at hand? German factory orders fell for a 30 sixth month in February, down 3.5% (m/m), and a 20 domestic orders record 38.3% from February 2008. While this is the 10 Total most severe decline in orders post-reunification, it 0 represents an improvement over the outsized 10.9% -10 fall of January (m/m). Foreign orders almost -20 export orders stabilized in the month, down just 1.3%. Despite -30 -40 weaker economic performance, business and -50 investor sentiment is up in the last months. But -60 further risks are brewing in the banking system and -70 emerging from the periphery of the Zone—clearly not Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 a time for complacency. Source: Bundesbank. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 6 Industrial Production OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) OECD production continues to fall industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) sharply. February IP data releases show continued 20 declines for OECD industrial output, as production in Developing countries 10 the United States (down 17.3%, saar), the Euro Area (off 32%) and Japan (65%) all contracted at a 0 quicker pace in the month. Indeed, on a month-on- -10 month basis, global industrial production dropped close to 2% in February, after falling by more than -20 3% in the final two months of 2008. Recent PMI -30 High-income OECD coun tries surveys spell more optimism, especially regarding factory orders. And very low inventory levels -40 J an-0 7 Ma y -07 Se p-0 7 J an-0 8 M a y-0 8 S e p-08 Ja n-09 worldwide are a positive for production moving into Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. the second and third quarters of 2009. But the continued rapid rates of decline will carry strong negative effects to economies around the globe. Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception) Little sign of improvement for developing 25 industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) regions. Data covering the first months of 2009 East Asia shows no sign of improved momentum growth for 13 production across developing regions, with the 0 possible exception of East Asia, where output growth appears to be bottoming out at a rate of decline near -13 Latin America 10% (saar). Indeed, the downward moves in output South Asia have steepened as the global recession takes a -25 heavier toll on domestic demand and trade. Of note, -38 production in ECA declined by 40% over the three Europe and Central Asia -50 months to January (saar), a 10-point acceleration Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 from December’s pace. Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. Output for Asian NIEs up. Several countries in East Asia and Pacific are leading a gradual recovery NIEs and Thailand record positve in production growth, with output posting positive monthly IP gains gains for the first time in several months. The 8 industrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) vigorous rebound in industrial production in Asia is Ko rea 5 grounded in a sharp acceleration in growth in high- Th ailand 3 tech manufacturing in Thailand, Taiwan (China), and 0 Korea, where combined IP expanded 16% month- on-month in February (seasonally adjusted), up from -3 7.5% in January, when production was negatively -5 affected by the Lunar New Year holidays. A litmus -8 test for global revival of production is if this trend can Hong Kong (SAR, China) -10 be sustained. -13 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 7 International Trade Incidence of trade-related WTO members face pressure to introduce measures increases quickly protectionist measures. Despite initial during downturn resistance by governments to impose trade measures in order to protect domestic jobs, there Episodes Countries has been a sharp increase in such measures 10-14 EU, India globally since September 2008. More than 20 7-9 China, Indonesia countries introduced at least one trade-related 4-6 Argentina, Russia, U.S. measure linked to the economic downturn, including 1-3 Brazil, Canada, Ecuador, four countries which introduced more than 7 such Hong Kong (China), South Korea, measures. But, the WTO found that the current Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Paraguay, Philippines, Taiwan (China), incidence is in line with similar episodes experienced Turkey, Ukraine, Vietnam during earlier downturns. Terms of trade deteriorate sharply in MNA. Source: World Trade Organization. Compared to most primary commodities, crude oil experienced the sharpest decline since its peak in Terms of trade impacts 2008 (from $133/bbl in July 2008 to $47/bbl in March July 2008 to February 2009 2009). Not surprisingly, the Middle East and North 5 Africa region which depends heavily on crude oil exports has experienced the largest Terms of Trade 0 (ToT) shock during the past 3 quarters (almost - 15%). Sub-Saharan Africa countries, which also -5 depend on primary commodities (whose prices -10 declined sharply) experienced the second largest ToT shock, -7.5%. In contrast, East and South Asia, -15 which are characterized by a more diversified trade structure, experienced favorable ToT movements of C a A ia a ia ng ric LA EN si As As .A pi 2.2% and 3.1% respectively. Af M lo r/C st h ve ut Ea Eu So De Source: World Bank, DECPG. U.S. trade balance improves in February. The United States deficit on goods and services U.S. trade deficit narrows by trade declined to the lowest level in some 11 years a full $10 billion during February ($26 billion) from $36.2 billion in January. Imports balance on goods: oil- and non-oil, ($bn) dropped 5.1% to $152.7 billion in the month, driven 0 by slumping demand for autos, consumer durables -10 and crude oil. Exports increased 1.6% to $126.8 Non-oil balance -20 billion. From a growth perspective, U.S. export -30 volumes rose 3.2%, moderating annualized declines to 43% from 48% in January (saar); import volumes -40 contracted a large 5.8% in February (m/m), with -50 momentum moving to decline of 40% from 30% in Oil balance -60 January. These factors point to less serious drag on -70 first-quarter GDP from net trade than during the first quarter given the quick falloff in imports, providing a -80 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 net “boost” to GDP. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 8 Commodity Prices Crude oil prices rise on Oil prices up on OPEC supply cuts. Crude OPEC production cuts oil prices in the first quarter of 2009 averaged $/bb l mb/d OPEC Production [R] $44.1/bbl, 21% below levels of the previous quarter. 140 32 31 But WB average prices rebounded from December 120 30 lows to above $50/bbl, on large OPEC production 100 29 cuts. Prices are facing resistance as large 28 80 markdowns to global oil demand continue. On the 27 60 26 supply side, OPEC has reached an 83% level of 40 Oil price 25 compliance on its agreement to remove a cumulative [L scale] 24 20 4.2mb/d from the market since September 2008, 23 with Saudi Arabia producing below target. OPEC 0 22 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan -04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 production is at lowest levels in 5 years, and its effective spare capacity has risen to about 5.5mb/d. Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. The market remains in surplus with inventories continuing to climb, particularly in the United States. World Oil Consumption Growth 4.0 (mb/d y/y) Decline in oil demand accelerates. World oil demand dropped by 3.2mb/d or 3.7% in the first 3.0 quarter (q/q), for a third consecutive quarterly 2.0 decline. OECD demand fell 2.6mb/d or 5.3%, with 1.0 compression across all main regions—including a 16.5% plunge in Japan, in part linked to mild winter 0.0 weather, but largely due to sharp decline in industrial -1.0 activity. Non-OECD demand fell for the first since OECD Non-OECD -2.0 1991 (outside of the FSU), with contraction in most -3.0 regions, and only moderate increases in the Middle East and Africa. The IEA now projects that world oil -4.0 1Q0 0 1 Q0 1 1 Q0 2 1Q 03 1Q 04 1Q 05 1 Q0 6 1Q0 7 1Q 08 1Q09 demand will fall by 2.8mb/d or 2.4% in 2009, with Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. virtually of the decline in the OECD. Non-OECD demand is projected to fall marginally. U.S. crude oil stocks rise Crude oil stocks surge. OECD oil inventories M bbl on weak demand rose atypically in the first quarter, with increases in 380 all three regions, but notably in the United States 5-year high-low ranges and Japan due to slumping demand. U.S. crude 360 inventories stand at highest levels since 1990. Total 340 U.S. oil consumption is down 0.8mb/d or 4% y-t-d (y/y) with large declines in most products, though 320 gasoline is down only marginally following a 3.5% 300 decline in 2008. For the latest 4-week period, oil demand fell 1mb/d or 5.2% (y/y), suggesting the 280 falloff is worsening. The U.S. EIA projects that gasoline consumption will increase 1% in the third 260 Jan-03 Jan-04 J an-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 J an-10 quarter (y/y) in part due to market distortions in the Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group. year-earlier period. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 9 Ag prices down in March. Agriculture prices Food prices decline in March on dropped 1.3% in March (m/m) on weak demand due weak demand to recession. The largest decline was in logs prices, (2000=100) down 10.5% on reduced demand in the construction 350 and wood-product sectors. Soybean meal prices 300 Fats & Oils dropped 10% due to a large falloff in feed demand Grains from the livestock industry, reflecting reduced meat 250 Beverages consumption during the downturn. Cotton prices fell 7% on an expected record drop in demand. In 200 contrast, soybean prices have jumped 14% since Other Food end-March on higher U.S. exports, particularly to 150 China. Stronger demand for U.S. soybeans is partly 100 due to earlier drought in South America that is Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 limiting its exports. Other vegetable oil prices have Source: DECPG Commodities Group. also increased in April. Copper prices rebound Metals prices rebound but gains uneven. Metals prices have risen sharply in April, due to re- on falling stocks stocking in China, very tight scrap markets, declining $/ton ‘000 tons 9 000 Copper price 5 50 inventories and cumulative production cuts. Nickel 5 00 prices jumped 30%, albeit from low levels, on 8 000 4 50 production cutbacks and a tight scrap market, 7 000 4 00 although demand remains weak. Year-to-date, the 6 000 3 50 strongest performers have been lead and copper, up 3 00 more than 60%, with lead bolstered by strong 5 000 2 50 LME stocks demand for replacement batteries and mining 2 00 4 000 cutbacks. Copper prices have jumped on strong 1 50 3 000 imports and restocking in China, including by the 1 00 government State Reserves Bureau. However, 2 000 50 Jan-0 6 J an-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 select metals prices are apt to recede once China’s Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group. restocking ends, given weak underlying global demand and large stocks. Consumption Growth (% y/y) Metal consumption slumps. World aluminum and copper consumption fell sharply in the first Aluminum Copper Crude Oil quarter of 2009, following large declines in the final World China World China World China quarter of 2008 Aluminum consumption dropped 20%, including a 10% fall in China, with large 2002-06 7.5 19.9 3.0 9.6 2.0 9.1 declines in construction and transportation. average 2007 10.4 42.8 6.6 34.6 1.2 4.6 Aluminum stocks continue to trend higher, despite China’s SRB purchases, and prices are unchanged 1H08 5.6 15.9 0.1 7.4 0.9 5.0 from end-year levels. World copper consumption fell 2H08 -6.0 -4.7 -3.5 1.8 -1.5 3.6 17.6% in Q1-09, all of it outside China. Part of the strength in copper demand reflects a sharp fall in 1Q09 -20.3 -10.4 -17.6 0.4 -3.7 -3.5 scrap availability. Elsewhere, nickel demand fell 27% Source: DECPG Commodities Group. in the first two months of this year (y/y), with stainless steel production down 30%. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 10 International Finance Capital flows down by two-thirds March flows minimal. Capital flows inched up from first-quarter 2008 levels to $9 billion in March from $8 billion in February, as bank lending increased $4 billion—largely G r o s s ca p ita l fl o ws to em erg in g m a r ke ts borrowings by India and China. Bonds slid to $2 $ billi on 200 7 2 008 2 009 Q 1 T ota l Q 1 T o tal J an F eb Ma r Q1 billion in the wake of stronger volumes in the first T o t al 15 6 652 103 3 89 23 8 9 40 months of the year. Flows for the first quarter B on ds 58 146 12 65 9 7 2 18 stand a troublesome 62% below the like period of B an ks 72 312 71 2 57 8 1 5 13 E qu ity 26 194 20 68 6 1 2 8 2008. Flows to Emerging Europe and Asia have more-than halved, while those to Latin America La t. A m e ric a 42 156 19 90 9 3 4 17 B on ds 20 45 5 20 5 3 2 10 eased modestly. Lending and equity issuance are E . Eu rop e 79 247 36 1 57 5 1 0 5 B on ds 27 64 2 35 2 1 0 3 down 80% and 60% respectively, from year earlier A sia 24 188 38 98 8 4 2 14 levels; but bond issuance stands 48% above first- B on ds 8 23 3 7 2 3 0 5 O t her s 11 61 11 44 0 1 2 3 quarter 2008 as a number of sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns took advantage of better market Source: DECPG Finance Team. conditions in the first months of the year. Over 2009 to date, sovereign borrowers issued $12.3 Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 billion and corporates $5.5 billion, weighted Total returns yr to date in local currency, % heavily toward Latin America. 20 15 IPOs depressed. IPOs are sluggish in 2009 10 after plodding through tough market conditions late last year. Lower valuations, a focus on follow- 5 on equity placement and volatile investor risk 0 appetite for equities continues to stall a flood of -5 IPO offerings. A total of 11 deals raised only $300 as of April 17th million in the first quarter, the worst volume since -10 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 YTD* 2001. This compare with 39 deals in the first MS CI De velope d MSCI E M MSCI BRIC EMBIG Developed-HY bond quarter of 2008, when $9.3 billion was raised. East Asia has accounted for much of the quarterly Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream volume with 9 deals, while Latin America and Africa saw no IPO activity. Recently some signs of Volume of EM IPOs has come to a hope may be appearing in the IPO markets standstill since September 2008 following a multi-week global stock-market rally. capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] 50 160 EM assets perform well in 2009. Emerging 140 market assets have outstripped returns in most 40 120 developed markets over the year to date. Equities Capital raised [L] 30 100 performed particularly well, posting 13.8% year-to- # of deals [R] 80 date returns contrasted with decline of -2.3% for 20 mature markets. This upward trend is also evident 60 in flows to emerging market stock funds, which 40 10 have received inflows of $7.3 billion. Despite 20 improvements, risks remain for developing 0 0 economies as they face large external financing 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 requirements this year, while prospects for the Source: Dealogic global economy remains unusually cloudy. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 11 Currencies Dollar re-consolidates against major partner currencies Dollar consolidates. The dollar’s appreciation USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] (post-emergence of the financial crisis) against the Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 major currencies as well as emerging market units 1.230 1.270 110 resumed at mid-December (with gains of 13.5% vs. 1.310 yen and euro), but unwound in the wake of the 106 1.350 March FOMC meeting. At that time, Fed Funds 1.390 102 target was set to near zero, and the central bank 1.430 98 undertook large-scale quantitative easing measures 1.470 USD/Euro (inverse) to bolster segments of the financial markets. The 1.510 94 greenback gave back half of its earlier gains against 1.550 90 the euro, but just 3% versus yen, which was still 1.590 yen/USD benefitting from the unwinding of the “carry trade”. A 1.630 86 more recent inflection was reached on March 20th Source: Thomson/Datastream. with the dollar turning up once more to gain 3.3% against the yen (to ¥99.14) and 4% against the euro LIBOR 6-month interest rates at parity ($1.3044) by April 20th. USD-LIBOR and EURIBOR, 6 months, percent 5.5 Interest rates at parity. Several elements may 5.0 be at core of the dollar’s recent rebound. On a 4.5 fundamental basis, 6-month EURIBOR has dropped 4.0 138 basis points since the turn of the year, while 3.5 dollar-LIBOR has increased gradually since that E URIBOR 3.0 time. At present “interest rate parity” holds with both 2.5 rates standing near 1.63%. Impetus to invest in euro- USD-LIBOR 2.0 denominated assets vis-à-vis those in dollars (on 1.5 assumption of no change in exchange rates) has 1.0 passed. But of greater importance may be the “green Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 shoots” which now are appearing in the U.S. Source: Thomson/Datastream. economy, pointing to an eventual bottom for the recession. No such indicators have yet come to light in either the Euro Area or Japan. Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities down sharply vs. 2008 Financing gap brewing? Treasury capital flows billions dollars 50 data through February 2009 show a major falloff in 40 net foreign purchases (NFP) of U.S. long-term 30 securities when contrasted with the like period of 20 2008. Aggregate flows are currently net outflow of $15 billion contrasted with inflow of $110 billion in 10 2008. In 2009 NFP of Treasuries are off one-third to 0 $32.3 billion; NFP GSE bonds shifted to $14.4 billion -10 in sales from $49 billion in purchases; corporate -20 bonds to net sales of $5 billion, and equity to sales of NFP UST NFP GSE NFP Bonds NFP equity $4 billion. Though flows are volatile, these data give First quarter 200 8 First quarter 200 9 pause to consider—“what if no one comes to the Source: U.S. Treasury... TICS data system. Treasury’s upcoming party?” April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 12 Table A.1 Global industrial production growth (constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar World 100.0 2.7 4.6 4.5 0.5 -0.5 -4.4 -21.3 .. -3.4 1.2 -2.9 .. High-income countries 77.2 1.4 3.1 2.5 -1.8 -3.6 -6.2 -23.5 .. -3.9 -3.7 -2.3 .. Industrial countries 72.7 1.4 3.2 2.6 -2.1 -3.9 -6.2 -23.3 .. -4.0 -3.6 -2.7 .. United States 25.1 1.3 2.3 1.5 -2.2 -4.6 -9.0 -12.7 -20.0 -2.2 -2.1 -1.5 -1.5 Japan 17.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 -3.1 -3.5 -4.6 -39.5 .. -9.5 -9.4 -9.2 .. Euro Area 22.9 1.3 3.6 3.1 -2.1 -5.2 -5.2 -24.0 .. -3.0 -3.1 -2.5 .. United Kindgom 4.1 -0.3 0.7 0.1 -2.8 -4.6 -6.8 -16.7 .. -1.5 -2.7 -1.0 .. Other high income 4.5 2.3 1.6 0.7 2.8 -2.4 -2.8 -29.7 .. -2.5 -8.4 .. .. Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.2 2.4 -1.6 -6.1 -6.0 -12.6 -6.5 .. 4.0 .. .. .. Singapore 0.4 6.3 12.0 6.4 -4.2 -40.6 2.5 -27.1 .. -7.7 -10.0 7.4 .. Taiwan (China) 1.1 4.7 4.6 8.2 -1.3 -4.1 -13.1 -62.8 -35.6 -5.4 -16.2 29.1 -0.7 Developing countries 22.8 6.6 8.8 9.8 6.3 7.3 -0.3 -15.2 .. -2.1 11.1 -3.7 .. East Asia and Pacific 8.7 11.4 13.0 15.0 11.2 13.4 2.1 -11.0 67.2 0.3 21.8 -6.1 -6.8 China 6.3 13.8 16.5 17.7 13.0 16.6 3.3 -9.5 89.6 1.5 25.6 -7.2 -6.8 Indonesia 0.9 3.4 -2.0 5.7 2.8 0.3 -8.7 0.0 .. -2.8 0.4 2.2 .. Thailand 0.6 8.6 7.3 8.2 5.3 0.1 3.6 -35.2 .. -11.2 -0.7 1.5 .. Malaysia 0.5 5.8 5.0 1.2 0.6 -6.9 -5.3 -26.9 .. -5.9 -1.7 1.8 .. Europe and Central Asia 3.2 5.1 7.9 7.3 1.0 3.8 -6.2 -30.7 .. -7.3 -3.0 0.1 .. Russian Federation 1.0 5.5 6.5 6.3 2.3 9.4 1.2 -31.6 -28.7 -3.5 -6.3 3.2 4.2 Turkey 0.5 3.7 7.9 6.9 -0.9 -8.0 -15.3 -34.8 .. -17.7 8.4 -2.9 .. Poland 0.6 6.4 11.8 9.5 3.2 2.6 -12.8 -17.2 .. -3.7 .. .. .. Czech Republic 0.2 4.7 8.2 10.2 -2.2 1.8 -13.0 -34.9 .. -4.8 -5.7 -2.1 .. Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 1.5 4.4 4.7 1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -19.9 .. -4.9 -1.1 0.7 .. Brazil 1.8 3.3 2.9 5.9 2.9 3.1 10.2 -33.0 .. -12.7 2.2 1.8 .. Mexico 1.7 .. 5.7 2.4 -1.0 -3.8 -4.6 -11.3 .. -2.4 -2.7 0.4 .. Argentina 0.8 2.7 7.9 7.4 0.7 -4.9 -12.0 -20.0 .. -1.5 -2.6 0.1 .. Colombia 0.3 2.6 10.7 10.7 -3.2 2.5 -15.0 -14.8 .. 3.5 -1.6 .. .. Middle East and North Africa 1.9 1.7 -0.5 -0.4 3.6 3.2 2.2 -3.0 .. -1.1 -1.0 .. .. Saudi Arabia 1.2 1.0 -4.2 -4.7 6.2 5.4 6.0 -19.0 .. -4.3 -5.2 .. .. Iran 0.4 1.0 -2.7 -2.9 2.9 1.9 5.7 -7.6 .. -2.2 -0.8 .. .. Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria 0.3 4.2 0.9 1.1 2.1 3.7 0.0 -1.0 .. 0.3 -3.0 .. .. South Asia 1.6 6.8 10.6 9.2 4.1 1.7 -1.3 -5.7 .. -1.8 0.2 0.3 .. India 1.3 6.7 10.5 9.9 4.4 0.7 1.6 -5.5 .. -1.5 0.2 0.3 .. Pakistan 0.2 6.7 10.6 5.6 -0.6 5.4 -21.5 -7.6 .. -4.8 0.3 .. .. Bangladesh 0.1 .. 11.1 6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 3.7 5.7 .. 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 0.4 2.5 4.7 4.6 0.8 15.2 -11.6 -25.3 .. -5.0 -0.9 -0.8 .. Nigeria 0.3 .. 0.2 -0.7 .. -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD 75.9 1.5 3.4 2.8 -1.9 -3.8 -6.5 -22.9 .. -4.0 -3.4 -2.6 .. Developing excl. China 16.6 3.5 5.1 5.6 2.0 1.5 -2.9 -19.7 .. -5.0 -1.2 .. .. Developing oil exporters 2.9 0.8 -1.4 0.7 2.0 -0.8 -3.3 -2.8 .. -1.5 -0.7 .. .. Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 7.7 10.6 11.3 6.9 8.6 -0.2 -16.8 .. -2.1 12.2 -4.1 .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 13 Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar a Real GDP High-income countries 78.6 2.3 2.9 2.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 75.4 2.2 2.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 -0.9 -7.4 .. .. .. .. .. United States 10.9 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.1 2.8 -0.5 -6.3 .. .. .. .. .. Japan 20.9 1.3 2.1 2.4 -0.7 -4.5 -1.4 -12.1 .. .. .. .. .. Euro Area 27.2 2.0 3.0 2.6 0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -6.2 .. .. .. .. .. United Kindgom 6.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 0.7 -0.1 -2.8 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. Other high income 3.2 4.3 5.9 6.1 1.6 -5.6 9.0 -11.1 .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 0.8 .. 7.0 6.4 2.5 -9.5 27.9 1.2 .. .. .. .. .. Singapore 0.4 5.6 8.4 7.8 1.2 -7.7 -2.1 -16.4 .. .. .. .. .. Taiwan (China) 1.4 3.8 4.8 5.7 0.1 -6.1 6.3 -19.8 .. .. .. .. .. Real merchandise imports b High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.1 2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States 23.8 8.2 5.7 1.3 -3.9 -3.9 -3.6 -5.9 .. -2.2 -6.6 -5.8 .. Japan 6.7 5.2 4.0 -0.5 -0.6 3.0 -1.5 -6.3 -17.2 -4.8 3.1 -12.1 0.6 Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.5 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.2 -4.2 -1.9 2.1 -2.6 -8.1 .. -4.0 -2.5 -0.7 .. Other high income 11.7 5.5 9.2 10.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 10.1 10.4 2.6 5.6 3.2 -6.2 .. -10.0 -3.2 -6.0 .. Singapore 2.3 5.2 11.2 6.1 9.7 12.7 11.0 0.5 -16.2 -9.0 -6.0 1.1 -2.2 Taiwan (China) 2.2 6.3 3.8 -0.2 -4.1 -3.7 -1.6 -17.6 -34.8 -20.4 -21.3 52.7 -17.1 Import Prices c High-income countries 100.0 .. 5.8 6.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 7.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States 23.8 -0.1 4.9 4.2 11.5 19.1 17.5 -3.8 -13.4 -4.6 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 Japan 6.7 -1.4 6.8 7.2 21.9 26.3 33.9 8.5 -9.6 -6.4 -1.6 -1.8 -3.0 Euro Area 37.1 .. 9.0 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United Kindgom 6.7 -1.3 3.1 11.0 7.5 14.8 13.2 -8.6 .. -8.7 -5.4 0.3 .. Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.2 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.3 -0.3 2.9 3.8 4.2 1.9 .. -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 .. Singapore 2.3 -0.3 6.6 3.6 11.5 19.4 21.4 -7.5 -17.6 -6.8 1.9 -1.0 1.6 Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 7.1 8.1 13.9 23.2 22.2 -5.4 -16.4 -5.8 -0.4 -1.5 -0.3 Real effective exchange rates d Euro Area 33.5 1.6 0.9 4.1 4.2 8.6 5.4 -4.4 -2.9 3.9 1.9 -1.9 2.8 United States 14.4 -2.2 -2.7 -4.6 -3.7 -9.5 -5.9 11.3 18.0 -0.2 1.1 2.4 0.8 Japan 7.4 -1.4 -8.9 -6.6 9.9 5.9 3.4 25.8 22.7 5.4 0.4 -2.3 -6.3 United Kindgom 5.4 -1.7 -0.2 2.1 -11.9 -10.1 -11.9 -17.1 -18.4 -5.4 -2.5 3.6 -2.7 Canada 3.5 0.0 3.2 0.8 -8.3 -3.3 -10.5 -23.3 -21.2 -3.1 -1.0 -0.1 -1.9 Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -4.3 -2.6 -5.0 -8.2 -11.3 -10.6 -1.3 6.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.7 4.8 -2.0 -15.8 -13.1 -12.8 -29.1 -27.7 -0.5 0.1 -3.9 1.9 Singapore 2.3 1.4 5.1 6.9 4.6 4.0 7.3 4.6 -0.5 -3.1 -4.8 5.6 0.3 Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 -4.2 -2.3 -2.0 -8.8 -12.1 -3.7 -1.3 0.4 -1.4 Switzerland 1.7 -1.0 -4.3 -4.9 2.2 2.0 0.0 5.9 4.9 2.3 0.4 -0.5 -0.2 a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights. b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components. c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume. d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 14 Table A.3 Global credit conditions (percent unless otherwise indicated a/) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 Latest 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar 24-Apr Policy Rates United States .. 3.44 4.96 5.02 1.93 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.18 0.15 Japan .. 0.33 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Euro Area .. .. 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.23 3.34 1.99 2.32 2.00 1.66 1.25 United Kindgom .. 4.80 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.03 5.00 3.32 1.09 1.61 1.08 0.57 0.50 Ten year bond United States .. 4.70 4.78 4.63 3.66 3.85 3.84 3.25 2.67 2.40 2.80 2.82 2.76 Japan .. 1.49 1.74 1.67 1.49 1.60 1.53 1.44 1.28 1.25 1.30 1.30 1.42 Euro Area .. .. 3.73 4.20 4.00 4.24 4.29 3.51 3.12 3.04 3.19 3.12 3.14 United Kindgom .. 4.77 4.48 5.01 4.52 4.80 4.70 4.07 3.48 3.52 3.64 3.29 3.25 Spreads (Basis points)b,c Developing countries .. 399 198 197 406 281 337 710 683 694 680 676 591 East Asia and Pacific .. 247 180 161 355 253 303 608 558 587 546 542 488 China .. 82 64 71 166 139 157 229 184 199 175 178 189 Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand .. .. 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Malaysia .. 129 84 87 201 135 161 377 352 353 352 350 319 Europe and Central Asia .. 286 149 158 370 237 296 709 692 689 689 698 564 Russian Federation .. 262 111 121 328 169 238 715 694 726 685 671 539 Turkey .. 404 223 214 383 312 336 593 537 510 540 561 451 Poland .. 99 59 61 159 104 131 293 311 312 302 319 321 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 227 221 438 304 367 759 735 744 733 728 663 Brazil .. 551 233 180 301 214 252 480 431 430 429 433 386 Mexico .. 206 137 126 254 162 213 452 436 423 435 449 373 Argentina .. 2920 343 320 858 557 696 1698 1696 1578 1645 1863 1791 Colombia .. 370 194 161 305 192 237 540 489 503 479 484 431 Middle East and North Africa .. .. 338 476 585 505 486 804 808 871 790 763 721 Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt .. .. 79 86 262 180 244 393 251 296 235 221 147 Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. d South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Pakistan .. .. 199 283 1040 596 965 2031 1943 2062 1957 1811 1614 Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. 390 266 288 452 338 318 749 673 695 661 664 583 South Africa .. 172 90 100 329 215 254 616 461 482 458 442 390 Nigeria .. .. 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Gross inflows e Developing countries .. .. 494 683 370 148 73 46 14 23 8 9 .. East Asia and Pacific .. .. 111 145 67 26 12 7 5 8 4 2 .. Europe and Central Asia .. .. 179 252 155 63 34 22 17 5 1 0 .. Latin America and Carribean .. .. 116 157 80 38 14 10 3 9 3 4 .. Middle East and North Africa .. .. 16 15 25 13 6 2 0 0 1 2 .. South Asia .. .. 42 69 25 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 30 46 17 4 4 4 40 0 0 0 .. a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures. b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003. c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan. d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries. e/In billions of US dollars. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 15 Table A.4 Commodity price indices (current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/) b Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 1990 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Energy .. .. 220.9 244.8 342.0 417.8 406.0 212.9 166.4 165.3 170.2 159.0 169.9 Coal, Australia .. 15.8 187.0 250.4 484.2 528.2 620.2 354.2 274.0 299.6 302.5 287.2 232.4 Crude oil, average .. 22.2 227.7 251.9 343.6 428.5 409.8 198.4 156.3 146.4 155.4 148.2 165.2 Natural gas , Europe .. 18.7 219.5 221.7 347.5 321.4 378.9 408.1 309.5 401.7 360.0 286.1 282.5 Non-energy 100.00 .. 192.0 224.7 272.0 307.8 292.6 206.3 197.9 189.3 199.2 196.7 197.9 Agriculture 69.10 .. 150.2 180.3 229.5 259.4 243.5 178.6 181.7 169.5 183.3 182.0 179.7 Beverages 16.90 .. 145.4 169.9 210.0 221.4 226.8 181.2 197.9 184.0 199.7 200.8 193.2 Cocoa 3.90 4.4 175.7 215.5 284.5 305.2 312.0 247.4 286.7 264.3 289.7 294.4 276.1 Coffee, arabica 8.00 0.3 131.4 141.9 160.5 164.2 167.3 139.5 147.9 136.6 147.3 148.7 147.6 Coffee, robusta 2.80 2.4 163.1 209.1 254.2 266.8 268.2 210.9 192.6 199.2 199.8 193.7 184.3 Food 29.40 .. 147.0 184.7 247.4 286.3 260.5 185.7 190.4 176.0 191.7 190.3 189.3 Fats and oils 10.10 .. 137.9 209.0 277.3 327.7 288.9 182.4 191.2 171.6 194.6 192.4 186.7 Palm oil 2.30 3.5 154.2 251.5 305.7 386.2 299.1 165.0 186.0 162.1 181.1 184.4 192.4 Soybean meal 4.10 9.6 110.6 163.0 224.4 255.7 238.1 169.3 192.5 158.6 194.8 201.4 181.3 Soybeans 2.00 8.0 126.8 181.3 246.8 276.2 267.3 178.1 185.8 169.9 195.0 184.1 178.4 Grains 6.90 .. 149.8 189.0 281.7 335.2 298.5 218.6 221.3 206.6 225.0 218.6 220.3 Maize 1.70 8.1 137.6 184.9 252.0 292.5 276.4 190.2 188.5 178.8 195.2 184.5 185.9 Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 7.9 150.6 161.3 321.2 422.6 347.3 278.8 289.7 262.8 286.6 291.9 290.6 Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 10.0 168.3 223.7 285.8 303.7 278.5 200.0 203.0 193.0 209.6 196.9 202.4 Other food 12.40 .. 156.4 149.0 177.1 187.4 188.9 160.2 161.3 154.1 157.6 161.7 164.5 Bananas, US 2.30 5.6 159.7 159.4 199.1 216.9 182.7 199.7 210.2 195.8 193.4 222.6 214.5 Sugar, world 7.50 0.6 126.1 98.0 115.7 115.5 126.7 102.5 109.4 101.7 106.8 110.1 111.3 Raw materials 22.80 .. 160.4 174.9 195.7 213.7 210.4 160.0 152.2 146.3 154.9 152.3 149.5 Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 0.9 97.3 107.1 120.9 127.9 129.2 97.5 92.8 93.9 97.7 93.5 87.1 Rubber, Singapore 4.80 13.6 311.6 339.2 387.6 454.9 447.3 238.3 218.9 180.3 222.9 219.3 214.5 Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 6.3 126.0 135.6 149.5 157.4 151.4 144.6 137.2 142.2 137.6 135.6 138.4 Fertilizers 2.70 .. 168.6 240.1 566.7 624.1 741.1 492.2 376.6 417.7 405.0 366.1 358.6 Triple superphosphate 0.90 17.7 146.4 246.2 638.6 752.6 804.4 478.3 233.6 294.1 254.2 232.4 214.2 Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 280.3 314.0 325.7 371.1 342.4 230.6 211.0 204.0 208.4 207.6 217.0 Aluminum 7.90 6.6 165.9 170.3 166.1 189.8 179.9 117.6 87.8 96.2 91.2 85.9 86.2 Copper 9.30 15.4 370.7 392.5 383.6 465.6 423.5 215.3 189.1 169.4 177.6 182.8 206.8 Gold .. 11.5 216.6 249.7 312.4 321.1 311.6 284.7 325.6 292.5 307.7 338.0 331.2 Nickel 2.20 16.4 280.8 431.0 244.4 297.3 219.5 125.5 121.2 112.1 130.9 120.5 112.3 Memo: Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 64.3 71.1 97.0 121.0 115.7 56.0 44.1 41.3 43.9 41.8 46.6 a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990. b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 16 Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth (US dollar val ues unless other wise i ndi cated; percent change; seasonally adjust ed annual rates except mont hly fi gures, which are m/m change /a) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Export values Developing countries 100.0 16.8 22.7 19.5 20.8 20.4 14.5 -55.8 .. -7.7 -0.9 -8.8 .. East Asia and Pacific 36.3 18.5 23.9 22.2 16.6 23.3 18.3 -46.2 .. -6.0 4.6 -16.4 .. China 16.7 22.8 27.2 25.7 17.3 18.0 23.5 -41.2 -52.2 -5.8 8.4 -22.2 4.5 Indonesia 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 4.6 12.6 16.9 17.2 16.9 29.5 1.2 -56.9 .. 7.5 -4.1 7.0 .. Europe and Central Asia 20.7 18.9 21.5 23.3 26.3 23.1 8.3 -68.6 .. -12.3 -7.0 -2.1 .. Russian Federation 7.1 20.3 24.5 16.8 33.1 19.9 18.5 -71.4 .. -10.2 -23.7 0.5 .. Turkey 1.8 17.2 16.4 25.4 23.0 -10.3 21.4 -76.9 .. -22.3 41.1 -8.4 .. Poland 2.1 19.7 22.5 25.9 23.6 35.5 -10.4 -76.4 .. -12.6 1.0 3.4 .. Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 10.9 19.8 13.3 12.1 18.0 7.2 -54.5 -46.8 -9.0 -7.7 2.3 2.4 Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.3 16.6 23.2 109.7 10.0 -47.5 -66.3 -6.7 -19.8 6.4 -2.5 Mexico 11.2 9.5 16.7 8.8 7.2 3.5 -2.8 -54.1 -36.8 -11.9 -2.7 -0.3 7.5 Argentina 1.8 10.3 15.3 19.8 26.5 -22.9 135.3 -70.0 .. -18.7 3.5 4.1 .. Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. 30.4 6.4 .. 43.1 23.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 23.6 0.9 .. 15.5 24.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.3 .. 32.5 18.2 .. 192.7 -24.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. Sout h Asia 4.3 15.4 26.4 19.6 18.8 -2.4 11.5 -54.2 .. 9.5 1.3 0.3 .. India 2.8 18.1 31.8 23.8 19.8 -10.4 16.2 -57.1 .. 12.2 1.4 0.8 .. Pakis tan 0.6 9.4 5.2 2.4 21.3 35.8 -12.1 -39.2 -44.4 -8.9 0.7 -4.1 -9.8 Bangladesh 0.4 .. 24.2 7.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 20.6 16.3 .. -9.8 41.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 2.0 12.0 12.2 19.3 19.3 19.0 29.2 -61.6 .. -14.9 -2.0 2.7 .. Nigeria 1.4 .. 24.4 10.2 .. 32.5 45.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. b,c Export price s Developing countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. East Asia and Pacific 36.3 .. 3.1 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 16.7 0.0 2.8 1.7 2.3 7.3 4.2 -2.7 .. 0.3 0.2 -2.9 .. Indonesia 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 4.6 5.7 3.7 6.4 11.4 44.9 5.8 -23.7 .. -3.8 0.8 0.1 .. Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 9.2 9.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation 7.1 .. 16.2 20.2 .. 45.9 50.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. Turkey 1.8 3.6 3.5 12.5 15.4 30.6 13.8 -55.2 .. -0.4 -4.3 -4.1 .. Poland 2.1 -0.9 6.4 0.4 -4.6 -6.1 -14.2 24.5 .. 3.4 .. .. .. Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 6.6 12.0 7.5 15.0 35.6 18.8 -52.3 .. -5.2 .. .. .. Brazil 3.7 5.4 12.5 10.5 26.3 47.1 56.8 -35.2 -48.5 -8.1 -5.3 -3.5 0.1 Mexico 11.2 5.8 7.5 5.1 9.8 36.8 4.4 -64.5 .. -4.2 -0.5 -1.4 .. Argentina 1.8 5.3 8.6 11.4 25.0 20.8 7.5 -35.7 .. -4.5 .. .. .. Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 25.8 3.7 .. 47.4 -27.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.9 .. -7.7 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.3 .. -1.6 7.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sout h Asia 4.3 2.3 2.9 10.7 9.0 8.7 0.1 -2.1 .. 0.3 .. .. .. India 2.8 4.1 3.7 9.4 9.1 7.7 2.8 -3.5 -11.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 Pakis tan 0.6 0.5 2.6 3.3 12.4 26.8 -27.0 13.2 .. 1.9 .. .. .. Bangladesh 0.4 -6.8 -6.3 13.1 -4.7 -17.7 -13.0 2.4 .. 0.2 .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 2.0 7.1 8.4 7.5 12.2 -2.9 7.2 -45.3 .. -6.4 .. .. .. Nigeria 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. /a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis. /b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures i ndividual t rade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional t rade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by t rade weight reported. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 17 Table A.6 Develo ping countries' merchandise im port growth (US dollar val ues unless other wise i ndi cated; percent change; se asonally adjust ed annual rates except mont hly fi gures, which are m/m change /a) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan F eb Mar Import values Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 20.7 19.0 -57.8 .. -7.8 -12.6 7.3 .. East Asia a nd P acific 35.2 18.7 16.8 18.6 21.2 2.8 14.2 -58.0 .. -7.8 -15.8 22.9 .. China 19.3 23.2 19.9 20.8 18.6 0.2 15.4 -59.1 -51.8 -5.7 -16.8 37.3 -15.1 Indonesia 2.1 16.8 5.8 22.0 73.4 44.1 2.1 -51.1 .. -14.7 -15.5 -7.9 .. Thailand 4.2 15.5 9.0 8.7 27.6 -8.5 63.0 -52.7 .. -8.4 -18.8 -11.5 .. Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 34.3 11.8 -65.5 .. -10.4 -11.8 -4.1 .. Russian F ederation 3.9 17.5 31.0 36.0 30.6 95.8 33.8 -54.3 .. -3.1 -36.0 15.1 .. Turkey 3.2 16.0 19.5 21.8 18.8 1.3 11.7 -80.2 .. -14.2 6.6 -13.3 .. Poland 3.6 16.1 23.7 29.9 26.9 28.5 -2.9 -73.9 .. -19.1 -1.0 -2.8 .. Latin America a nd C aribbean 22.9 10.0 19.1 19.0 20.9 22.9 18.6 -44.9 -57.2 -6.3 -10.6 -3.7 3.5 Brazil 3.2 11.6 24.1 32.0 43.5 77.5 34.3 -45.9 -72.2 -0.7 -15.6 -9.9 -2.7 Mexico 11.6 9.4 15.4 10.1 9.5 -2.0 11.0 -49.9 -42.8 -12.8 -5.3 -0.4 9.2 Argentina 0.6 6.2 19.0 30.9 28.4 45.3 3.2 -54.2 .. -4.5 -21.9 2.8 .. Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 8.2 23.3 .. 68.8 37.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 18.9 36.0 .. 25.9 22.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.4 .. 5.6 20.9 .. 34.0 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.8 .. 4.0 31.4 .. 527.3 52.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. S out h Asia 5.5 18.9 20.7 23.9 31.4 28.2 54.5 -65.1 .. -6.1 -4.8 -1.1 .. India 3.7 21.3 21.9 28.2 32.3 30.3 69.4 -66.6 .. -5.7 -4.4 0.1 .. Pakis tan 0.7 16.7 17.5 9.2 34.3 10.1 -5.4 -66.4 -65.2 -8.8 -7.7 -10.1 3.8 Bangladesh 0.5 .. 15.5 15.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. S ub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 21.9 21.8 .. 26.0 34.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 1.9 13.3 23.6 16.3 15.6 1.3 18.7 -61.7 .. -7.6 5.7 -17.8 .. Nige ria 0.5 .. 21.7 31.0 .. 12.8 65.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. b,c Import prices Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. East Asia a nd P acific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Indonesia 2.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand 4.2 4.0 4.9 6.0 13.6 44.4 2.2 -29.9 .. -4.8 0.2 -0.8 .. Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian F ederation 3.9 3.3 12.0 11.7 13.7 13.9 9.8 4.3 -2.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 Turkey 3.2 5.1 10.1 7.9 20.0 43.3 14.5 -49.0 .. -4.5 -5.9 -1.7 .. Poland 3.6 -0.2 6.9 -1.8 0.0 2.0 -7.1 37.9 .. 3.2 .. .. .. Latin America a nd C aribbean 22.9 4.0 5.4 6.6 13.4 29.4 19.2 -24.3 .. -4.2 .. .. .. Brazil 3.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 22.0 43.1 27.5 -30.5 -27.0 -6.3 1.8 -5.6 -0.6 Mexico 11.6 3.3 4.5 5.4 8.5 16.1 12.4 -17.4 .. -2.0 0.1 -0.2 .. Argentina 0.6 1.9 2.3 7.3 11.2 43.9 11.4 -31.7 .. -3.7 .. .. .. Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 2.7 7.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 1.4 .. 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 0.8 .. -3.4 13.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. S out h Asia 5.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India 3.7 .. -10.4 6.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Pakis tan 0.7 .. -10.5 -40.0 .. -100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Bangladesh 0.5 -6.2 -4.7 12.6 -5.3 -18.1 -13.4 1.8 .. 0.1 .. .. .. S ub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 1.9 5.9 3.7 4.3 10.6 11.1 9.1 -49.7 .. -7.2 .. .. .. Nige ria 0.5 .. 2.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. /a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), cust oms basis. /b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. /c In ma ny cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures i ndividual t rade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional t rade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by t rade weight reported. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 18 Table A.7 Merchandise trade ba lances (Billi on US dollars; annual rates ) CAB US$ bn. % GDP 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2008 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan F eb Mar World 0.0 0.0 -288 -297 -446 -409 -577 -408 .. -259 5 -225 .. a High-income countries -383.1 -0.9 -446 -410 -470 -446 -563 -442 .. -328 -450 -186 .. Indus trial countries -455.4 -1.1 -636 -559 -664 -652 -741 -613 .. -499 -634 -336 .. United States -667.0 -4.7 -817 -794 -800 -851 -843 -679 .. -601 -553 -431 .. Japan 183.0 3.7 66 93 21 34 -13 -27 -23 -16 -49 -9 -12 Euro Area -9.3 -0.1 -14 42 -38 -29 -61 -34 .. -9 -85 -61 .. United Kindgom -73.6 -2.7 -139 -179 -177 -185 -186 -152 .. -133 -135 -126 .. Other high income 72.3 3.9 190 148 198 207 179 186 .. 175 218 153 .. Hong Kong (C hina) 23.4 10.7 -18 -23 -26 -30 -32 -20 .. -9 -11 -17 .. Singapore 26.9 15.6 33 36 17 18 10 10 20 11 15 12 34 Taiwan (China) 25.0 5.9 20 27 15 23 6 18 34 17 43 13 46 Developing countries 0.0 0.0 166 124 42 53 5 54 .. 87 527 -49 .. East Asia a nd Pacific 423.5 8.4 138 220 186 179 204 271 .. 296 577 50 .. China 383.9 10.2 174 264 295 278 314 368 304 365 605 60 248 Indonesia 1.0 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Thailand -0.2 -0.1 1 12 -1 15 -7 -10 .. 2 24 48 .. Malaysia 36.3 17.7 29 30 43 55 51 35 .. 37 28 42 .. Europe and Central Asia .. .. -5 -46 -32 -30 -42 -59 .. -60 -7 12 .. Russian F ederation 98.9 6.1 143 135 184 199 198 115 .. 92 99 77 .. Turkey -41.4 -7.3 -54 -63 -69 -78 -77 -48 .. -41 -15 -7 .. Poland -28.5 -5.3 -16 -25 -36 -37 -40 -32 .. -22 -19 -12 .. Czech R epublic -6.6 -3.1 1 4 4 6 4 -1 .. -6 -1 1 .. Latin America a nd C aribbean -19.6 -0.5 39 11 -53 -37 -61 -86 -38 -88 -60 -24 -31 Brazil -28.3 -1.8 46 40 24 33 24 19 21 16 6 28 27 Mexico -15.5 -1.6 -6 -10 -17 -10 -21 -23 -14 -20 -13 -13 -17 Argentina 7.9 2.7 12 11 13 6 21 11 .. 4 16 17 .. Colombia -6.5 -3.4 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 .. -3 -2 .. .. Middle East and North Africa .. .. 45 16 .. 58 52 .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 142.1 29.1 125 104 .. 166 176 .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt -0.8 -0.5 -7 -11 .. -21 -29 .. .. .. .. .. .. Alge ria 0.0 0.0 29 23 .. 34 32 .. .. .. .. .. .. Sout h Asia .. -75 -99 -154 -156 -193 -136 .. -112 -95 -92 .. India .. .. -53 -73 -115 -115 -149 -104 .. -86 -74 -73 .. Pakis tan -15.2 -9.6 -13 -15 -23 -25 -25 -16 -11 -14 -11 -9 -12 Bangladesh .. .. -3 -4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. .. -3 -3 .. -5 -6 .. .. .. .. .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 32 25 .. 59 67 .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa -21.2 -8.0 -9.9 -10.3 -8.1 -8.4 -6.9 -5.4 .. -12.0 -17.0 -2.6 .. Nige ria 13.9 7.3 24 20 .. 31 32 .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing excl. C hina .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters 196.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil e xporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 19 Table A.8 Excha ng e Rat es (USD/LCU) (annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/) Weights Aver age b 2008 2009 2008 2009 Latest Level 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar 24-Apr World 100.0 94.7 0.4 5.7 4.4 10.7 6.7 -7.4 -13.1 -0.9 -2.9 0.1 1.8 High -income countries 78.3 .. 0.0 6.1 4.7 11.8 6.8 -8.2 -12.5 -0.4 -2.8 0.1 1.5 Indus trial countries 70.6 .. 0.1 7.0 5.0 12.9 7.2 -9.3 -13.8 -0.4 -3.0 0.1 1.7 United States (S DR/ US D) 15.7 0.7 -1.4 4.1 3.9 7.6 5.8 -2.9 -5.6 1.8 -1.7 -0.1 0.6 Japan 7.4 114.3 -6.4 -1.5 12.4 16.1 11.7 12.6 16.4 7.1 -2.8 -5.1 -1.6 Euro Area 29.5 .. 1.0 9.1 6.9 15.8 9.1 -9.1 -13.1 -1.8 -3.5 1.9 1.2 United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 -0.6 9.5 -5.3 0.5 -2.1 -18.5 -27.8 -5.9 -0.2 -1.7 3.8 Other high income 7.7 101.6 -0.4 0.5 2.7 4.3 4.1 0.5 -2.5 -0.5 -1.3 -0.1 0.6 Hong Kong (C hina) 3.7 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Singapore 2.3 1.7 3.8 5.6 7.2 10.8 10.8 0.3 -5.4 1.1 -1.8 -0.8 1.4 Taiwan (China) 2.1 32.9 -1.6 -0.8 4.4 8.6 7.3 0.1 -5.4 -0.6 -2.7 -0.2 1.9 Developing countries 21.7 112.8 1.5 4.6 3.8 7.7 6.4 -5.0 -14.8 -2.3 -3.2 0.0 2.4 East Asia and P acific 7.5 101.4 3.6 5.8 4.7 7.6 5.3 -0.4 -5.8 1.6 -1.6 -0.6 1.5 China 2.7 8.1 2.7 4.6 9.3 9.9 10.7 9.6 6.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Indonesia 1.1 9077.8 4.7 1.2 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 -11.6 -19.7 6.5 -6.0 0.0 6.5 Thailand 1.3 39.3 4.6 10.4 4.5 9.9 1.9 -1.4 -6.3 0.4 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 Malaysia 1.4 3.7 2.8 6.7 4.2 8.0 5.4 -3.5 -9.7 1.4 -1.8 -1.1 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.0 1.5 8.3 8.1 13.5 14.0 -3.7 -23.9 -9.6 -8.9 2.5 2.8 Russian F ederation 1.5 27.8 3.0 6.5 4.8 9.5 8.4 -5.4 -28.0 -14.2 -11.1 3.5 3.0 Turkey .. 1.2 -5.2 7.4 4.2 8.2 8.2 -15.5 -29.0 -0.6 -3.6 -2.8 6.5 Poland 0.5 3.6 2.8 11.8 18.4 28.6 30.4 -1.7 -29.1 -8.5 -12.1 2.4 6.6 Czech R epublic 0.5 28.3 4.1 11.4 21.2 30.1 33.3 3.4 -16.8 -3.6 -7.8 6.5 3.1 Latin America and C aribbean 5.5 135.1 1.8 2.7 3.1 7.6 7.6 -7.5 -17.5 -2.4 -2.2 -0.3 4.1 Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.0 10.6 10.9 20.7 19.9 -12.3 -23.9 -2.1 -0.1 0.1 4.7 Mexico 1.7 10.4 0.6 -0.5 0.1 3.9 6.5 -9.3 -24.5 -6.0 -4.7 -0.4 9.6 Argentina 0.4 2.4 -4.9 -1.2 -1.0 -2.2 2.7 -2.4 -11.8 -4.5 -1.4 -3.9 -0.8 Colombia 0.3 2282.0 -1.3 12.6 7.8 16.9 11.5 -7.9 -18.6 3.0 -10.3 2.0 3.3 Middle East and North Africa 1.7 152.6 -0.7 1.7 2.9 5.2 4.8 -1.3 -4.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iran 0.4 6515.1 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 1.7 -0.3 -5.0 -4.7 -0.5 2.6 -1.6 -2.0 Egypt 0.3 5.0 1.4 1.4 3.9 5.8 5.7 0.5 -1.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 0.1 Algeria 0.3 72.7 0.5 4.6 8.3 9.3 11.9 5.8 -7.3 -4.8 -0.5 -1.4 0.0 S out h Asia 1.2 105.4 -3.1 4.7 -3.5 1.5 -5.8 -15.2 -18.4 0.0 -0.7 -2.7 1.3 India 0.8 44.9 -3.1 8.6 -2.2 3.6 -5.1 -16.7 -20.7 0.2 -0.9 -3.8 2.3 Pakis tan 0.2 58.9 -1.2 -0.9 -11.9 -5.6 -14.7 -23.3 -23.2 1.0 -0.5 -1.0 -0.2 Bangladesh 0.1 60.2 -7.0 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Sri Lanka 0.1 95.0 -2.6 -6.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 3.4 -5.0 -3.4 -0.3 -0.2 -1.9 S ub-Saharan Africa 1.5 114.9 -3.5 -0.4 -3.0 1.0 0.1 -14.9 -22.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.1 4.4 South Africa 0.6 7.4 -6.1 -5.0 -11.7 -8.2 -7.9 -26.3 -28.0 2.0 -0.8 0.3 9.7 Nigeria 0.3 118.5 2.2 1.6 6.2 8.5 7.8 0.2 -20.0 -8.8 -1.0 0.2 -0.2 Memo: OECD 73.7 .. 0.1 6.9 5.1 12.9 7.6 -9.1 -14.4 -0.7 -3.2 0.2 2.0 Developing excl. China 19.0 115.2 1.3 4.6 3.0 7.4 5.8 -6.8 -17.4 -2.7 -3.6 0.0 2.8 Developing oil export ers 2.8 159.0 1.1 1.0 -0.6 1.0 1.8 -5.2 -12.5 0.9 -2.4 -0.3 2.3 Developing non-oil export ers 19.0 107.2 1.5 5.2 4.4 8.7 7.2 -4.9 -15.1 -2.8 -3.3 0.1 2.4 Asian hi gh tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ An increase in the USD per LC U implies appreciat ion of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. i mports plus exports in 1995 constant USD). Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period. b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the US D April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 20 Table A.9 Global Inflation (annual percent change; seas onall y adjusted a/) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 2009 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan F eb Mar World .. 4.6 3.1 2.9 4.6 4.8 5.8 3.7 1.9 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.5 High-income countries .. 3.3 2.3 2.1 3.3 3.6 4.3 2.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 Indus trial countries 3.3 3.2 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.5 4.2 2.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.3 United States -0.8 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.3 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.4 Japan 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.0 .. 0.4 0.0 -0.1 .. Euro Area 1.9 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 0.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 United Kindgom 3.6 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 3.4 4.8 3.9 .. 3.1 3.0 3.1 .. Other high income .. 5.8 1.6 2.4 5.8 6.7 6.8 4.9 .. 4.3 .. .. .. Hong Kong (C hina) 1.4 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.7 2.0 3.1 0.8 1.2 Singapore 3.0 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 7.5 6.6 5.4 2.1 4.4 2.9 1.9 1.6 Taiwan (China) 0.7 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.5 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 1.3 1.5 -1.3 -0.1 Developing countries 10.0 9.3 6.2 6.0 9.3 9.1 11.3 9.4 6.4 8.2 7.1 6.5 5.8 East Asia and Pacific 10.1 7.5 5.4 5.2 7.5 9.7 11.3 8.7 3.7 7.7 3.9 3.7 3.5 China -1.8 5.8 1.5 4.8 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.6 1.2 1.0 -1.6 -1.2 Indonesia 10.2 10.0 13.1 5.8 10.0 10.1 12.0 11.5 7.9 11.1 9.2 8.6 6.1 Thailand -1.3 5.5 4.6 2.2 5.5 7.5 7.3 2.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 Malaysia 4.4 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.4 4.9 8.4 5.9 3.7 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 Europe and Central Asia 10.5 10.4 5.6 7.9 10.4 11.4 11.3 8.3 6.0 7.0 7.1 6.0 4.9 Russian F ederation 11.4 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 14.9 14.9 13.7 13.7 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.0 Turkey 9.4 10.4 9.6 8.8 10.4 10.3 11.7 10.9 8.4 10.1 9.5 7.7 7.9 Poland 2.8 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.3 4.5 4.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.9 Czech R epublic 0.4 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.3 6.7 6.6 4.5 2.1 3.6 2.2 2.0 2.3 Latin America and C aribbean 9.3 8.7 5.8 6.2 8.7 9.1 9.9 9.1 6.2 7.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 Brazil 5.8 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 5.6 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.6 Mexico 6.9 5.1 3.6 4.0 5.1 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 Argentina 6.9 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 9.1 8.9 7.8 6.6 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.3 Colombia 6.0 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 6.4 7.7 7.8 6.6 7.7 7.2 6.5 6.1 Middle East and North Africa .. .. 5.4 4.7 .. 14.1 13.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 8.9 9.7 2.1 3.9 9.7 10.1 10.9 10.2 .. 9.5 .. .. .. Iran .. .. 11.6 16.8 .. 24.0 26.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 14.3 18.3 7.6 9.5 18.3 18.8 22.5 19.6 13.3 18.3 14.4 13.5 12.1 Algeria .. 0.1 2.3 3.6 .. 6.1 2.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. Sout h Asia 11.6 20.3 7.7 7.6 20.3 8.4 12.1 16.9 .. 14.4 10.7 9.6 .. India 10.8 8.3 6.2 6.4 8.3 7.8 9.0 10.2 .. 9.7 10.4 9.6 .. Pakis tan 25.0 20.3 7.9 7.6 20.3 19.3 24.5 24.3 20.2 23.3 20.5 21.1 19.1 Bangladesh .. .. 6.8 8.7 .. 8.4 10.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka 9.7 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 26.5 25.2 16.9 7.8 14.4 10.7 7.6 5.3 Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria .. .. 8.5 5.5 .. 8.6 12.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD 3.4 3.3 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.6 4.3 2.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.6 Developing excl. C hina .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters .. .. 10.0 5.7 .. 11.3 13.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters 9.7 8.7 6.1 6.2 8.7 9.0 11.1 9.3 6.2 8.0 7.1 6.3 5.6 Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregat es use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in t hat time period. For developi ng countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the component s. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 21 Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates (percentage a/) Weights 2008 2009 2008 2009 Latest 1995 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar 24-Apr World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. b High-income countries 82.8 3.83 4.13 2.32 2.48 2.41 1.25 0.55 0.64 0.56 0.44 0.41 Indus trial countries 80.6 3.84 4.15 2.32 2.49 2.41 1.25 0.55 0.65 0.56 0.45 0.41 United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 4.96 5.02 1.93 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.18 0.15 Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Euro Area (Euros ys main refi rat e-minimum bid) 24.5 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.23 3.34 1.99 2.32 2.00 1.66 1.25 United Kindgom (Cl earing bank's base rat e) 3.9 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.03 5.00 3.32 1.09 1.61 1.08 0.57 0.50 Other high income 2.2 3.27 3.37 2.16 2.37 2.36 1.32 0.36 0.43 0.34 0.32 .. Hong Kong (Discount rat e) 0.5 6.50 6.52 3.13 3.58 3.50 1.17 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 .. Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 3.40 2.68 1.15 1.09 1.03 1.01 0.50 0.61 0.44 0.44 0.44 Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.56 1.96 1.93 2.10 2.14 1.40 0.18 0.27 0.14 0.14 0.13 Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.86 6.71 7.18 7.47 7.43 6.34 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 Thailand (14day Repo R ate - B OT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.39 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.50 3.41 2.47 3.00 2.41 1.99 1.99 Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.64 10.27 10.87 10.48 10.97 11.88 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.76 18.37 17.05 16.48 17.80 17.55 13.21 14.77 13.14 11.71 10.32 Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.09 4.48 5.88 5.95 6.10 6.05 4.29 5.01 4.19 3.67 3.35 Czech R epublic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.17 2.86 3.49 3.75 3.60 2.98 1.95 2.25 1.85 1.75 1.75 Latin America and C aribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 15.33 12.05 12.45 11.81 12.97 13.75 12.66 13.43 12.75 11.80 11.25 Mexico (CETES 91 day clos ing) 1.0 7.30 7.36 7.88 7.64 8.29 8.09 7.42 7.74 7.31 7.19 5.76 Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 6.45 8.09 11.43 10.42 11.46 15.42 12.55 14.29 11.69 11.67 12.32 Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.27 7.94 9.68 9.67 9.80 10.02 9.13 9.73 9.24 8.42 7.15 Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 5.02 4.79 .. 2.14 3.10 .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran (IMF di scount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt (IMF dis count rate) 0.2 9.00 9.00 .. 9.33 10.83 .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria (IMF discount rat e) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. Sout h Asia 1.6 .. .. .. India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.97 7.04 7.90 7.50 7.59 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Pakis tan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 8.58 9.09 10.63 10.16 11.70 11.12 11.37 11.19 11.29 11.63 13.08 Bangladesh (B ank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.37 10.50 10.36 10.25 10.25 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.63 9.61 11.61 11.53 12.00 11.90 10.82 11.50 10.70 10.27 9.50 Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.25 9.13 9.85 10.08 10.08 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 .. Memo: OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing excl. C hina 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of t he daily figures; except for the latest month, the fi gure reported for the latest month is the value on the date t he dat a has been reported (which is the last dai ly observation one day before the note becomes available). b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 22 Table A.11 Stoc k Ma rkets (indices, year 2000= 100) Weights Average 2008 2009 2008 Latest 1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar 24-Apr World .. 91 106 124 102 112 93 72 64 65 59 64 69 High -income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Indus trial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States .. 89 100 112 92 98 89 68 61 63 56 61 65 Japan .. 84 107 109 77 86 71 56 51 52 49 51 55 Euro Area .. 99 121 148 117 129 103 80 67 70 63 67 71 United Kindgom .. 88 98 106 88 92 81 73 65 69 63 65 66 O ther high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (C hina) .. .. 127 152 125 136 113 81 72 78 73 72 84 Singapore .. .. 113 150 121 124 107 121 115 124 111 115 130 Taiwan (China) .. 72 80 94 85 88 62 51 .. .. .. .. .. D eveloping countriesa, b .. 156 203 275 262 268 219 160 .. .. .. .. .. c East Asia and P acific .. 123 146 219 192 187 144 108 .. .. .. .. .. China .. 118 109 240 215 202 157 118 .. .. .. .. .. Indonesia .. 207 268 397 415 442 322 188 .. .. .. .. .. Thailand .. 188 231 282 274 284 215 143 .. .. .. .. .. Malaysia .. 116 120 183 169 168 135 110 .. .. .. .. .. Europe and Central Asia .. .. 398 495 461 535 333 216 .. .. .. .. .. Russian F ederation .. 525 878 1046 996 1218 662 428 .. .. .. .. .. Turkey .. 87 119 166 139 126 124 81 .. .. .. .. .. Poland .. 168 228 319 272 278 226 148 .. .. .. .. .. Czech R epublic .. 354 484 674 789 928 639 459 .. .. .. .. .. Latin America and C aribbean .. 203 263 394 426 487 333 228 .. .. .. .. .. Brazil .. 199 254 398 471 558 349 237 .. .. .. .. .. Mexico .. 193 260 360 337 360 290 197 .. .. .. .. .. Argentina .. 104 150 190 177 234 138 81 .. .. .. .. .. Colombia .. 352 589 685 653 686 615 522 468 490 457 468 527 Middle East and North Africa .. .. 332 366 384 402 397 286 .. .. .. .. .. Saudi A rabia .. .. 527 339 340 385 309 197 193 197 186 193 215 Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt .. 213 328 412 484 512 359 243 .. .. .. .. .. Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. S out h A sia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India .. 198 266 411 375 327 283 199 .. .. .. .. .. Pakis tan .. 241 370 452 346 375 231 134 165 123 135 165 177 Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. 229 312 358 283 314 261 171 174 198 180 174 185 S ub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa .. 216 307 378 322 330 275 201 .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria .. 409 450 807 868 947 801 442 259 275 310 259 284 M em o: O ECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D eveloping excl. C hina .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D eveloping oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D eveloping non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. A sian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Average for Developing countries and Ot her High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002 N ote: Quarterly and Monthly data is cons tructed from daily data by taking t he last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months. b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/ S&P c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital Internat ional Index; US A - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S& P EUR OP E 350; U K - St andard and Poor's 350; Hong K ong - Hang S eng Composite; Singapore - Singapore St ock Excahnge C omposit e Index; A ll Ot hers are IFC/S &P Indi ces April 24, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 23 Table A.12 GDP and current account fo reca st s (annual percent change; billions of US dollars ) GDP Gross domestic P roduct Current Account Balance 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 C ons . EIU OEC D Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OEC D Cons. EIU OECD World 1.8 -1.9 -2.9 -0.4 2.1 1.1 1.4 -177 .. .. -120 .. .. High -income countries 0.7 -3.2 -4.0 -0.5 1.2 0.2 1.4 -312 .. .. -327 .. .. Indus trial countries 0.7 -3.2 -4.0 -0.5 1.2 0.2 1.4 -379 .. .. -398 .. .. United States 1.1 -2.8 -3.2 -0.9 1.7 0.6 1.6 -427 -497 -562 -486 -510 -537 Japan -0.7 -5.8 -6.4 -0.2 0.7 0.3 0.6 98 100 231 122 95 211 Euro Area 0.8 -2.5 -3.8 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 1.2 -59 .. -8 -47 .. -4 United Kindgom 0.7 -3.0 -4.0 -1.1 0.5 -1.1 0.9 -51 -44 -35 -51 -36 -50 Other high income 1.6 -3.7 -5.4 .. 2.7 0.6 .. 67 .. .. 71 .. .. Hong Kong (C hina) 2.5 -3.4 -5.9 .. 2.4 -0.3 .. 23 .. .. 23 .. .. Singapore 1.1 -4.7 -8.8 .. 3.2 0.9 .. 21 .. .. 23 .. .. Taiwan (China) 0.1 -4.9 -6.5 .. 2.9 0.1 .. 25 .. .. 26 .. .. Developing countries 5.8 2.4 1.0 .. 4.7 3.8 .. 134.8 .. .. 207.3 .. .. East Asia and P acific 8.1 5.7 4.2 .. 7.4 5.9 .. 368.6 .. .. 380.9 .. .. China 9.0 7.0 6.0 .. 8.3 7.0 .. 336.6 0.3 437.2 348.1 0.2 472.4 Indonesia 6.1 3.4 -1.3 .. 4.7 0.6 .. 0.8 .. .. 1.4 .. .. Thailand 2.6 -1.6 -4.4 .. 3.2 1.4 .. 3.3 .. .. 2.2 .. .. Malaysia 4.6 -0.7 -3.0 .. 3.6 1.1 .. 25.3 .. .. .. 26.4 .. .. .. Europe and Central Asia 3.7 -1.9 -2.9 .. 2.2 1.5 .. -84.1 .. .. -66.4 .. .. Russian F ederation 5.6 -1.5 -3.0 .. 2.5 2.0 .. 5.1 .. .. 21.8 .. .. Turkey 1.0 -3.3 -4.4 1.6 2.8 1.0 4.2 -15.3 .. -40.0 -21.3 .. -41.7 Poland 4.8 0.3 -0.4 3.0 2.0 1.8 3.5 -19.0 .. -29.3 -21.0 .. -31.3 Czech R epublic 3.1 -2.1 -3.0 2.5 1.4 1.2 4.4 -5.4 .. -6.0 -5.3 .. -7.1 .. .. Latin America and C aribbean 4.4 -0.7 -2.5 .. 2.3 1.5 .. -69.5 .. .. -62.8 .. .. Brazil 5.1 -0.1 -1.5 .. 2.9 2.7 .. -21.2 .. .. -26.4 .. .. Mexico 1.3 -2.8 -4.4 0.4 2.0 1.2 1.8 -23.5 .. -29.5 -23.3 .. -31.5 Argentina 7.0 -0.7 -2.8 .. 2.0 1.5 .. 1.8 .. .. 2.1 .. .. Colombia 3.7 0.9 -1.0 .. 2.6 1.5 .. -7.2 .. .. .. -6.3 .. .. .. Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 5.0 0.7 0.4 .. 4.0 3.3 .. -6.1 .. .. 12.1 .. .. Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 7.2 3.9 3.8 .. 3.7 3.9 .. -5.2 .. .. -5.6 .. .. Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. S out h Asia 6.1 5.8 4.5 .. 5.0 5.9 .. -47.5 .. .. -32.6 .. .. India 6.9 6.4 5.0 .. 5.2 6.4 .. -33.3 .. .. -17.2 .. .. Pakis tan 1.2 2.5 0.6 .. 3.6 3.2 .. -14.2 .. .. -15.4 .. .. Bangladesh 4.4 4.6 5.5 .. 4.8 3.9 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 .. Sri Lanka 5.8 .. 2.6 .. .. 5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. S ub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 3.1 0.8 -0.8 .. 3.5 3.1 .. -21.2 .. .. -23.3 .. .. Nigeria 6.3 4.1 2.7 .. 5.3 4.4 .. -0.2 .. .. .. 5.1 .. .. .. Memo: .. .. OECD 0.7 -3.1 -4.0 -0.4 1.2 0.2 1.4 -453 .. .. -479 .. .. Developing excl. C hina 4.6 0.5 -1.1 .. 3.1 2.4 .. -201.9 .. .. -140.8 .. .. Developing oil exporters 5.4 1.7 -1.2 .. 3.3 0.6 .. -5.9 .. .. 25.1 .. .. Developing non-oil exporters 5.9 2.4 1.1 .. 4.8 4.1 .. 140.7 .. .. 182.2 .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. So urces: Con sensus Economics Ltd.; The Econ omist In telligence Unit and OE CD. Reg io na l Ag gregates: Latin Amer ica and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,ME X,PAN,PER,PRY,UR Y,VEN Eu rop e an d Cen tral Asia: BGR,C ZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,I RN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM Sou th Asia: BGD,I ND,PAK Sub- Sah aran Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KE N,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE Other A ggrega tes: OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DE U,DNK,E SP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,IT A,JPN,KOR,MEX,NL D,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA In dustrial Cou ntries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,I TA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA Other High In come: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN Develop ing Oil E xpo rters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN