Improving and Scaling Evidence
    RESEARCH CONFERENCE ON FORCED DISPLACEMENT
                 January 16 –18, 2020
             UN City, Copenhagen, Denmark


Introduction
The public discourse on forced displacement does not always appear informed by the
evidence which emerges from the work of academics, practitioners and members of
international organizations. Moreover, the dialogue between these agents and other
stakeholders (governments, policy makers, donors, etc.) needs to be improved and
made more effective, in order to exert more lasting effects on the decision-making
process on forced displacement around the globe. Through greater availability of
evidence and data, stakeholders will have a great ability to make timely and evidence-
informed decisions that can improve the lives of people affected by forced
displacement.
To these aims, the Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement (JDC) 1 organized the
Research Conference on Forced Displacement 2020. The conference took place on
January 16-18, in Copenhagen, Denmark, in partnership with the World Bank’s
Development Economics Research Group, the Population Studies and Training
Center at Brown University, and the Evidence for Policy Design (EPoD) and Middle
East Initiative (MEI) at Harvard University. Papers presented at the conference were
eligible for consideration for a special issue on Forced Displacement in the Journal of
Development Economics. The event brought together over 100 members of the
research community and gave the participants the possibility to discuss and analyse
current and future topics on forced displacement. Recording of all the sessions are
available on the event page.
The conference largely centred around the role of data gathering, management and
analysis in improving and scaling evidence on Forcibly Displaced Persons (FDPs)


1The JDC is a collaboration between the World Bank and UNHCR to improve the generation and
dissemination of evidence in forced displacement settings in order to inform programmatic and policy
decision-making. More details can be found on the webpages of UNHCR and the World Bank.
The specific objectives of the conference were four-fold:
   1. Entice more economists and other evidence-driven disciplines to enter this
      field of research;
   2. Create a platform/an opportunity for researchers and practitioners to meet;
   3. Connect data users with data providers;
   4. Establish a “community of practice�.

On its initial day, the conference featured the presence of the UN High Commissioner
for Refugees, Mr Filippo Grandi: his remarks on the role of data in the current political
context helped set the scene for the subsequent series of exchanges between
researchers and other stakeholders, including discussions on open data policies.


The role of data handling in the research on FDPs
The title of the conference (Improving and Scaling Evidence) highlights the crucial role
that careful collection, management and use of data can play in informing policies and
shaping global decisions. This is in line with the recommendations of the High
Commissioner for Refugees, who indicated how the appropriate handling of data can
facilitate the achievement of three outcomes:
       1. Inform the public discourse on forced displacement;
       2. Help mobilize resources; and
       3. Break the anti-refugees’ rhetoric and push countries to open up more
          towards FDPs.
In this respect, the contributions presented during the conference indicated three main
areas of research and intervention (see Figure 1) which can be presented in a naturally
sequential order.




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          Figure 1 The data chain: from data collection to policies




The methods for data collection have changed considerably during the last years
and represent one of the most dynamic areas of research. This is a highly relevant
theme, considering that many refugees and IDPs are located in fragile states and
therefore, innovative methods are often necessary for obtaining reliable data.
Specifically, the availability of new technologies opens up a number of new avenues
for gathering data in a timely and relatively inexpensive way. Examples of these new
methods where presented by the researchers of the World Bank during the launch of
their two books (Data Collection in Fragile States: Innovations from Africa and Beyond
and Using Micro-Data to Inform Durable Solutions for IDPs) at the beginning of the
conference. They showed how mobile phones can prove to be invaluable tools to
reach FDPs, interview them and guarantee the possibility of repeated contacts with
surveyed individuals. At the same time, mobile phone technology per se represents a
useful tool in the tracking of both migrants and refugees: for example, evidence from
Turkey, presented during one of the academic sessions, indicates that data from
mobile telecommunication cells can be used to identify the mobility patterns of FDPs,
with important repercussions in terms of housing, employment, and education policies,
to name a few. In addition, several presentations highlighted the importance of an
effective representativeness of the employed samples. The UNHCR registration data
play a critical role in this respect, and more traditional methods of data collection, such




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as surveys or experiments, can still prove relevant and effective. Synergies between
researchers, local authorities and international organizations can be particularly useful
in scaling up experiments which otherwise risk to be confined to very local contexts,
and therefore, exert a limited impact on the process of policy making.
New data, often collected with innovative methods, represent both an opportunity and
a challenge for researchers. On the one hand, , as new waves of data become
available, new research opportunities open up in geographical areas often neglected
in large research studies; on the other hand, data obtained from innovative sources
also call for a careful analysis to guarantee a correct extrapolation of results. The
papers and studies presented during the conference showcased several
contemporary methods for the analysis of data. Scholars devoted particular
attention to those cases in which these techniques of data analysis could be employed
for the evaluation of policy interventions, leading to the identification of causal effects
of these policies on the population of interest (see also the next section).
This tendency is in line with much of the current literature in empirical economics.
Evidence provided during the conference, and based on a comprehensive literature
review, indicates that the studies of forced displacement and its effects increasingly
rely on quantitative analyses of large representative datasets involving advanced
econometric methods. It is therefore not surprising to observe that researchers tend
to employ in their analyses a large number of statistical and econometric tools whose
validity is generally accepted in economic fora.
The collection and analysis of data often aim to produce a set of recommendations
that can inform the policy debate and ultimately affect the life trajectories of FDPs and
members of the host communities. However, the steps for linking the evidence to
policy recommendations often prove to be the most difficult, as highlighted in the
discussion between the conference attendees and the UN High Commissioner. In
general, as is the case in other fields, the ability to reach policy makers and influence
their actions still appears to differ considerably between practitioners and academics.


The research themes and the populations of interests
One import element that characterized the studies presented during the conference
was the wide breadth of research aspects investigated across the papers. To briefly
summarise such vast research spectrum, several (but not all) contributions can be
classified within the following three categories:


1. The impact of the presence of FDPs on the host communities. Typically, these
   studies did not limit their analysis to standard economic variables, such as
   employment levels or wages. Conversely, evidence was presented on a number of
   outcomes which can give a better representation of the effective socio-economic
   impact of FDPs inflows. Examples of such indicators are educational outcomes,




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   levels of crimes, or the environmental consequences of mass inflows. Moreover,
   other researchers focused on the individual behavioural responses vis-à-vis FDPs
   shocks, as well as the role social media can play in fostering anti-refugees
   sentiments in host countries.

2. The consequences of forced displacement. The research presented during the
   conference testifies how forced displacement is a traumatic event whose
   consequences may have lasting effects on a number of personal and inter-personal
   dimensions. The studies analysed, for example, psychological, psychosocial, and
   marital outcomes of FDPs. All theseevidence proves how complex the phenomenon
   of forced displacement is and the need for comprehensive interventions to facilitate
   the social inclusion of FDPs in the host communities.


3. The effects of policy interventions on FDPs and returnees. Governments in host
   and origin countries have implemented several policies and interventions on FDPs,
   often in collaboration with international organization and NGOs. The differences
   across these interventions in terms of target population, geographical areas of
   intervention and specific aims, offer the researchers with a wide array of
   opportunities for conducting studies aiming to identify the causal effect that these
   policies can exert on the affected individuals.

It is worth mentioning that such a variety of themes and analytical methodologies was
reflected in the number of thematic sessions that were featured throughout the
conference. Moreover, this richness in research topics characterized both the poster
session that concluded the first day of the conference, and the flash session for
graduate students, organized in collaboration with Brown University and Harvard
University. This testifies how younger researchers in this field are already able to
interpret and represent the complexity of forced displacement events and their
multifaceted consequences.


The Conference: Attendance and social media attention
The conference consisted in a 2.5 day gathering of policy makers, practitioners and
researchers on forced displacement, discussing 33 papers and books in 37 separate
presentations. In total, some 130 people attended in person. In addition, the event was
broadcasted live and attracted more than 500 viewing.
The conference also attracted attention in the social media, with posts from the World
Bank, UNHCR, and other partners appearing on various platforms, such as Twitter,
LinkedIn and Instagram. In all, the event’s announcement collected over




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 44,234 impressions, 2 and 318 active engagements via the World Banks Twitter
handle @worldbank. The guests and partners who also tweeted about the event
included the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Mr Filippo Grandi; Mr Ola Rosling,
President of Gapminder; Ambassador Mohamed Abdi Affey, UNHCR's Special Envoy
for the Horn of Africa,; and the account managers of Harvard University and The
Forced Migration Review.


              Figure 2 Distribution of participant by type of institution




Looking at the characteristics of the conference (in person) participants, Figure 2
below presents their distribution by type of affiliate institution. While the vast majority
of participants came from universities and international organizations, the participation
from other institutions was not negligible and represented around a fourth of the total
participants. This reflects both the diverse nature of the members of the research
community who focus on the analysis of forced displacement, and the plurality of
stakeholders who maintain an interest in the development of policies for FDPs.




2   An impression is defined as the number of times a tweet appears in Twitter’s users’ timelines.




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Figure 3 Geographical distribution of participants




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The type of institutions in which the attendees work, and the filter imposed by the
rigorous publication standards of the Journal of Development Economics, affected the
level of geographic diversity of the conference participants. This is illustrated in Figure
3.
The figure and its associated bar chart show how a large majority of participants came
from North America and Western Europe. Few institutions based in emerging and
developing countries were represented and in most cases, these countries could only
count on one representative. These figures can be interpreted as evidence that the
selection of papers and presentation has a “Western bias� and is driven by the location
of the institutions where current research on forced displacement predominantly takes
place. However, it is worth noting that these figures do not provide any indication on
the countries of origin of the participants. Moreover, the presence of some institutions
based in countries which are at the core of the debate on FDPs, such as Iraq, Lebanon
or Jordan, can be seen as an important starting point for a more comprehensive
involvement of scholars from these countries in international meetings.


         Figure 4 Countries studied in the academic presentations




Figure 4 provides an overview of the countries covered in the academic presentations.
In certain cases, the studies focused on global perspectives, and therefore it was not
possible to identify the specific countries analysed by the researchers. Nonetheless,
as most of the presentations did identify a destination and an origin country, the map




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offers a valid overview of the geographical areas which attracted most of the attention
of the conference presenters.
The choice of areas covered in the presentations is not particularly surprising: Middle-
East, South and South-East Asia, the Mediterranean basin, Venezuela, Ecuador and
Colombia, are all geographical areas which have been at center of important refugee
flows over the course of the last decade. The fact that three countries (Iraq, Nigeria
and Turkey) are studied both as destination and origin countries is the result of two
different effects: the use of data from different periods of time (in the case of Turkey,
one paper employed data from the beginning of the 20th century), and the focus on
internally displace people (IDP).
Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that other countries which have witnessed events
leading to considerable FDP flows were not covered in the presented papers. As a
way to illustrate this, Figure 4 also includes some countries of concern which have not
been specifically studied in the papers presented during the conference. For the
purpose of illustration, these are countries which either host at least 300,000 forcibly
displaced persons, and/or are eligible for funding under the IDA 18 Regional Sub-
window for Refugees and Host Communities or the Global Concessional Financing
Facility. Data and research gaps, therefore, still exist which should be filled to provide
policy makers and stakeholders with a more complete overview of the different
features of forced displacement around the world.


Lessons learnt and way forward
The feedback received from the participants indicates that the Conference was very
well received and achieved its objectives. At the end of the conference, participants
were invited to provide comments on the event through an anonymous survey. Out of
the 67 participants who answered the survey, 87 per cent indicated that the conference
had been very useful and 95 per cent would like to the JDC to organize other such
conferences in the future.
In addition, two specific elements of the Conference can be highlighted as particularly
relevant. First, the audience was particularly keen to hear about the possibilities of the
forthcoming UNHCR microdata library. A special session was organized to this aim,
during which the new library was presented to the researchers, along with other
existing resources, such as the World Bank microdata catalogue. Importantly, the
presentations did not only discuss the available data, but also the challenges and
difficulties that are typically faced when gathering data resources in a systematic way.
The interest in this session3 indicates how relevant the theme of data openness is
among researchers and how the process of data and knowledge sharing will be more
and more crucial in the near future. This message also emerged clearly in the


3Around 80 per cent of the survey respondents indicated that this session was useful for their
purposes.




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stimulating presentation given by Mr Ola Rosling: as free information lies at the heart
of modern economic systems, “liberating data is a critical step to properly inform
practitioners and policy makers about topics of public interest.�

Second, the peculiar structure of the Conference, with its mixed audience, generated
many opportunities for side conversations and interactions between researchers and
practitioners. For example, 70 per cent of the survey respondents found that the
conference had the right balance between in terms of participation of academics and
practitioners. This is an element which is typically missing in standard academic-only
or practitioner-only conferences and many attendees appealed to the JDC to help
generate more opportunities for this type of exchanges.

At the same time, it is possible to identify some areas in which the engagement of
researchers can be improved, possibly through new opportunities created by the work
of the JDC and its partners.

    1. Certain areas globally (for example Sub-Saharan Africa) are still largely
       excluded from the contemporary literature, which tends to focus on a handful of
       countries.

    2. More attention should be devoted to on IDPs and stateless people. IDPs, in
       particular, are more numerous than refugees and yet very little evidence on
       them was provided during the Conference.

    3. Additional efforts should be devoted to fully understanding the complexity of
       forced displacement and the impact of FDP flows on the host countries. This
       was highlighted very clearly by Ambassador Affey, who, in his speech, pointed
       out how host countries (often themselves vulnerable and in need of support)
       are the “first consumers� of data on displaced popu lations�, and called on the
       JDC and other international institutions to empower national institutions. It is
       therefore critical to provide policy makers and practitioners with new data and
       analytical tools for answering a wider set of research questions. In this respect,
       it is encouraging to see that 91 per cent of the attendees have found the
       conference useful for identifying future areas of work.

These elements pose some more challenges for the future work of the research
community and the support offered by JDC. Some of these challenges can be
overcome by broadening the set of researchers and covering aspects which are not
typically included in economic analyses, such as political science, sociology, legal
and/or anthropology.




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Recommendations for the JDC
At the end of the Conference, a set of commitments were made by the JDC:
   1. Make the conference on forced displacement a recurrent event, with possible
      venues in host country, such as Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan, or Kenya;

   2. Set up a Fellowship Program for researchers in the Global South, as well as
      a visiting scholar program;

   3. Continue monthly compilations of summaries of research papers and
      studies. The Literature Review currently contains summaries of over 300
      articles plus, categorized by topic;

   4. Actively work to make relevant datasets available to the research
      community, whether through Microdata libraries and/or specific websites;

   5. Offer opportunities and spaces for researchers to engage with the JDC
      throughout the year and learn about their work.


For comments or additional information on the Research Conference on Forced
Displacement 2020 or the activities of the JDC, please contact




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