Assessing biophysical and social vulnerability to natural hazards in Uttarakhand, India (English)

Given the devastating history of flooding and landslides, most notably in 2013, this report aimed to assess the current potential threat that biophysical hazards poses to Uttarakhand from four angles: 1) how geomorphic change in recent floods changes ... See More + Given the devastating history of flooding and landslides, most notably in 2013, this report aimed to assess the current potential threat that biophysical hazards poses to Uttarakhand from four angles: 1) how geomorphic change in recent floods changes the location of rivers and surrounding floodplains; 2) what is the spatial distribution of biophysical hazards; 3) where is socially vulnerable population concentrated in the State; 4) How are infrastructure, population, and resources exposed to biophysical hazards and social conditions. To do so, the authors built spatial, statistical, and machine learning models in publicly available platforms to assess biophysical and social vulnerabilities. For biophysical vulnerability, the authors generated state-wide and spatially-detailed flood and landslide hazard maps. Validation efforts suggest that the flood hazard model and landslide hazard models will place a randomly chosen incidence location greater than a randomly chosen no incidence location with a frequency of 71 percent and 90 percent,respectively. The lower accuracy of the flood hazard assessment model is attributed to the fact that it is generated in the absence of spatially-explicit historical flood information. Furthermore, using the Spatial Database of South Asia and applying a robust principal component analysis-based methodology, the authors generated a social vulnerability index at the sub-district level, which is relevant for local planning. For social vulnerability, this report illuminates two underlying dimensions of the region that are believed to contribute to a region's propensity for loss, namely marginalized populations, and poor access to financial and health resources.  See Less -