For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 73497 Independent Evaluation Group 1. CPS Data Country: Nicaragua CPS Year: FY08 CPS Period: FY08 – FY12 CPSCR Review Period: FY08 – FY12 Date of this review: November 2, 2012 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the Nicaragua Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) of FY08 and the CPS Progress Report (CPSPR) of FY10, and assesses the CPS Completion Report (CPSCR). The strategy was jointly implemented by IDA and IFC, and this review covers the joint program of the two institutions. ii. The WBG strategy aimed to support the Government’s development objective of wealth creation and poverty reduction through more broadly shared economic growth. The strategy was organized under four pillars: (i) reactivating the economy, stimulating productivity and competitiveness; (ii) human capital development by improving social equity and opportunity; (iii) infrastructure and sustainable development; and (iv) strengthening governance and accountability by modernizing state institutions and promoting citizen participation. To better reflect the government’s pro-poor focus, the CPSPR re-organized these strategic objectives under three pillars by combining (ii) and (iii) above. iii. IEG rates the overall outcome of WBG assistance to Nicaragua as moderately satisfactory, concurring with the CPSCR rating. Under Pillar I, the Bank played a minor role in helping Nicaragua maintain a stable macroeconomic framework. Some progress was made in improving the business environment and in developing micro-enterprises’ access to credit, but there is no information on the extent to which this has led to further diversification and growth of the MSME sector. Progress was also made in improving land registration, although a visible impact on land tenure security is likely to take longer. The Bank contributed to Nicaragua’s improving agricultural productivity, albeit with delays in project implementation. There was an incipient contribution to sustainable resource utilization by helping farmers’ adopting new technologies and through the development of forest management plans, but there is no information on improvement in the overall sustainability of natural resource utilization. Under Pillar II, the Bank achieved some progress in health outcomes for women and children, but there is no data available on chronic child malnutrition. The Bank also helped improve enrollment and completion rates of primary education and the capacity of the Ministry of Education. Water access appears to have improved in both urban and rural areas with Bank support, although there is no recent data to confirm progress, while poor cost recovery undermined service expansions in urban areas. Access to energy and telecommunication services has improved in rural areas, but information is lacking on service quality. Road access has expanded and there is indication of improving road quality. There is little evidence for improved development outcomes in the RAAN and RAAS. Under Pillar III, governance deteriorated and the CPS benchmarks were not met. iv. The CPSCR summarizes the main lessons from the CPS period as: maintaining flexibility in response to emerging opportunities, including shifting resources from budget support to investment lending; developing a transparent M&E system to stimulate good governance; avoiding the proliferation of small operations that threaten to strain supervision resources; consolidating the portfolio around key lines of action; and focusing on institutional capacity building for engagement with the Autonomous Regions. IEG concurs with these lessons, which reflect the Bank’s operational experience during the CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CPSCR Review Coordinator Robert J. Anderson Mauricio Carrizosa Consultant, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Xiaolun Sun, Surajit Goswami Xiaolun Sun, Senior Evaluation Officer Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC IEGCC 2 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group CPS period. A cross-cutting theme is the complexity in designing and implementing a coherent and results-focused strategy in an environment that is not conducive to budget support, that makes it difficult to engage in high-level policy dialogue, that involves a large number of donors, that is characterized by limited client capacity, that is vulnerable to various shocks, and that has poor data for monitoring and evaluation. To address these issues, the CPSCR discusses several options to be explored during the implementation of the forthcoming CPS (e.g., an expanded role for Analytic and Advisory Activities (AAA) support, consolidation of the portfolio around a few key areas where dialogue and coordination may be feasible and effective). This review endorses the pragmatic approach recommended in the CPSCR, and underscores the value of tracking evaluation on progress toward extending the technical-level partnerships that have been developed to policy-level partnerships. 3. Assessment of WBG Strategy Overview of CPS Relevance: Country Context: 1. Once one of the region’s most productive economies, Nicaragua is now its second poorest after Haiti. After decades of political conflict, natural disasters and a civil war, moderate growth since the mid-1990s has only raised Nicaragua’s per capita GDP to the level in the early 1980s, still well below its 1977 peak. Given the high oil dependency of the economy, external financial flows are critical to finance its very large trade and current account deficits (28 and 18 percent of GDP, respectively, in 2011). Over 30 percent of Nicaragua’s budget comes from Official Development Assistance (ODA) provided by a broad range of development partners. The country is also heavily dependent on remittances (13 percent of GDP) and substantial flows (FDI and assistance) from Venezuela. Prudent economic management and some important reforms (e.g., tax policy, electricity and financial sectors) have helped Nicaragua achieve macroeconomic stability and rebound rapidly from the 2009 global economic crisis. Real GDP grew by 4.6 percent on average in 2010-2011, while inflation dropped from an average of 19.8 percent in 2008 to 8.0 percent by the end of 2011. Nevertheless, poverty is high at 42.5 percent in 2009, albeit down from 48.3 percent in 2005; human development ranking is relatively low (129/187 in 2011); and the country is off-track to attain most MDGs. In the political sphere, the years immediately preceding the CPS had been tumultuous, with the conviction of an ex-President of corruption, the breakup of the center-right political coalition that had governed Nicaragua since 1990, and the return of the Sandinista National Liberation Front Party to the presidency. The CPS period provided no respite: Nicaragua was hit by category 5 Hurricane Felix less than a month after the CPS approval, which was followed by food and oil price crisis, the global financial crisis, the H1N1 pandemic, alternating droughts and floods, and a series of political crises as the Ortega administration consolidated its power. 2. The country’s development strategy was in flux at the time the CPS was designed : the Ortega government did not finalize its revision of the previous administration’s 2005-09 development strategy until October 2008, and did not present it to Nicaragua’s development partners until October 2009. Pending the development of this strategy, the CPS was developed on the basis of the Economic Development Program outlined in Nicaragua’s Mem orandum of Economic and Financial Program of August 2007 that was submitted to the IMF for a new Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The key aim of the program was to create the conditions for a significant reduction in poverty and sustained economic growth in a context of macroeconomic stability, and fiscal and external sustainability. The program also proposed a structural reform agenda intended to strengthen the energy sector, public sector institutions, the social security system, and the financial system. The Government’s new social policy focused on the overarching objective of reducing extreme poverty and chronic child malnutrition. Objectives of the WBG Strategy: 3. The WBG strategy aimed to support the Government’s development objective of wealth creation and poverty reduction through more broadly shared economic growth. It sought to strengthen sector dialogue and reform, and to ensure greater donor alignment with the new administration’s 3 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group priorities and a more coordinated attempt at harmonization to improve overall development impact. The strategy was structured to support four strategic objectives: (i) reactivating the economy, stimulating productivity and competitiveness; (ii) human capital development by improving social equity and opportunity; (iii) infrastructure and sustainable development; and (iv) strengthening governance and accountability by modernizing state institutions and promoting citizen participation. To better reflect the government’s pro-poor focus, the CPSPR re-organized these strategic objectives under three pillars by combining (ii) and (iii) above. Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 4. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program : The CPS addressed Nicaragua’s key constraints to poverty alleviation. It also focused on the northern coastal departments, where there was a concentration of poverty and deprivation, and recognized the need for donor coordination and harmonization. Given that the strategy was developed at a time of political transition, its objectives were very broadly stated. They were nonetheless well-aligned with the economic development priorities of the Ortega government, which emphasized direct interventions for poverty reduction and the technical underpinnings of public sector financial management for effective service delivery. The adjustments introduced in the CPSPR were appropriate to maintain alignment with the Government’s program as it emerged, and to help Nicaragua deal with negative shocks. However, the extent to which the Bank and other partners were able to achieve overall coherence in the partnership is not clear, nor is the extent of government ownership of some elements (e.g. governance) of the WBG program. 5. Relevance of Design: The CPS program was modest in relation to Nicaragua’s development program and the strategic objectives, but sensible in the context of the instruments available to the Bank. The results framework focused on outcomes and indicators that could be directly influenced by Bank interventions, and was not in general explicit about the relevant activities of other partners. This is perhaps a consequence of the fluid state of Nicaragua’s development strategy and the Bank’s inability, as documented in the CPSCR, to develop a high-level strategic dialogue with the government. Over the period 2008-2010, Bank disbursements accounted for only 6.7 percent of the ODA received by Nicaragua, and the risk of substantial overlap of activities among the partners was high. IDA-IFC coordination was an exception: the roles assigned in the CPS were clear and consistent with the capabilities of the two institutions. 6. Risk Identification and Mitigation: The CPS identified six risks: (i) loss of macro stability and investor confidence; (ii) inability to resolve dispute with Union Fenosa; (iii) weak institutional capacity; (iv) governance deteriorations; (v) natural disasters; and (vi) inadequate donor alignment and harmonization. The strategy envisaged plausible mitigation measures to forestall these risks and remedial measures to deal with them should they materialize. As the CPS period unfolded, several of these risks did materialize which the Bank addressed per the measures outlined in the CPS. Several natural disasters struck, which the Bank addressed effectively through lending for rehabilitation, technical assistant (TA) for disaster management, and trust fund (TF) mobilization. Nicaragua satisfactorily resolved the Union Fenosa issue and made sufficient progress in other expropriation/compensation cases to avoid a confrontation with its development partners. Governance deteriorated, although not in quite the same way as envisaged, and the Bank responded with cessation of budget support, like other development partners. The Bank had no other choice under its policies and standards for Development Policy Operations (DPOs), but the cessation of budget support also meant the demise of the planned vehicles for high-level policy dialogue with the government and for the harmonization of partners' programs. 4 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Overview of CPS Implementation: Lending and Investments: 7. During the CPS period, IDA delivered 14 lending operations totaling US$283.8 million in IDA commitments. The size and composition of the lending program differed substantially from that envisaged in the CPS and CPSPR as the program was adjusted to deal with unexpected crises and shifting government priorities. Only 6 of the 10 planned projects were actually delivered, but with the addition of 8 non-programmed projects, total volume exceeded planned commitment levels of US$240 million in CPS and US$274 million in CPSPR, and was complemented by US$45 million in Trust Funds. Policy-based lending was much lower than originally planned (US$20 million actual versus US$140 million planned in CPS), and investment lending much higher. The CPSCR reports that, as delivered, about two-thirds of the lending volume supported Pillar II objectives. In addition, there were 15 active projects amounting to nearly US$300 million in commitments at the start of the CPS period, four of which were closed by the end of the period. 8. The Nicaragua portfolio was implemented effectively: the rise in the proportion of projects (commitment) at risk from 8 to 25 percent (13 to 17.1 percent) between FY08 and FY10 was quickly brought down to 7 percent (5.2 percent) by FY12, lower than the Latin American average of 23 percent (13.3 percent) and the overall Bank portfolio average of 22 percent (14 percent). IEG reviewed the completion reports of the five operations closed during the CPS period and rated the development outcome of all five as moderately satisfactory. In four of these, the risk to development outcome was rated moderate, while in the other, a Development Policy Credit, the risk was rated as high. 9. Four IFC investment projects were in operation at inception of the CPS period for US$45 million of net commitment. During the review period, IFC committed another US$220 million for 14 projects in a variety of sectors. Almost all (98.6 percent) IFC commitment was in loans. Unlike in many other countries, IFC encountered substantial difficulties in investing in the financial sector. In addition to large inflows from Venezuela to Nicaraguan banks, a new law (Ley de Moratoria) that brought interest rate caps and compulsory write-offs made expansion of microfinance projects unprofitable. Mortgage finance also proved to be difficult. The fact that most banks in Nicaragua have a Panamanian holding company further limited investment possibilities, given IFC's Offshore Financial Centers Policy. Instead, IFC invested heavily in agribusinesses that were competitive and in energy projects that were expected to bring down the cost of power generation. The two largest IFC investments were for production of sugar and geothermal energy for a total of US$100 million (plus $140 million in mobilization). 10. IEG reviewed one IFC investment that was active at inception of the review period and rated positively its development effectiveness. For IFC’s portfolio approved during the CPS period, project supervision reports indicate business success and positive development effectiveness for most of the investment projects. The exceptions include three investments in microcredit and an investment in extraction and processing of tropical hardwoods, which faced operational issues and a partial export ban after the new administration took office. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 11. IDA delivered 21 economic and sector work (ESW) reports and 15 TA tasks, which were substantially more than, and different from, what was envisaged in the CPS and CPSPR. Much of the work was diagnostic, encompassing poverty, public expenditure, governance, environment, financial sector stability, investment climate, and a country economic memorandum. Again, this reflects the fluid state of the government’s strategy at CPS formulation. Although the CPS envisaged active dissemination and dialogue on AAA products that had decisively influenced the CPS design, there is no indication whether the dissemination and dialogue took place and the CPSCR lacks evidence on the contribution of the AAA to program design, implementation, policy dialogue, or CPS outcomes. 12. During the CPS period, IFC continued to implement five AS projects that were approved before the review period, amounting to over US$2.8 million of total funds, and approved four more projects totaling US$1.7 million. Half of the on-going project funds and all newly approved funds were in Sustainable 5 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Business Advisory business line. IEG reviewed two of the nine AS projects and rated the development effectiveness as unsuccessful in one and deemed the other too early to judge (IFC self-rating was mostly successful). Among the other seven AS projects, two have been terminated, four have been rated negatively (three unsuccessful, one mostly unsuccessful) by IFC staff, and one has not been rated. Two regional projects (both in coffee) also included work in Nicaragua. One was rated by IEG as mostly successful, while the other is still on-going. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 13. Support to Nicaragua is provided by over 40 countries and international organizations amounting (exclusive of any assistance provided by Venezuela) to about US$120 per capita per year during FY08-10. IDA accounted for about 6.7 percent of the total ODA. The CPS and CPSPR noted the need for vastly improved coordination and outlined some initiatives to achieve it, but made it clear that the Government had to lead these efforts. During the CPS period, Nicaragua was able to develop Sectorwide Approaches in agriculture, health and energy, and had active ministry-led donor roundtables in education and environment, although the earlier multi-donor budget support group that coordinated around a unified PRSC agenda dissolved after the cessation of budget support. Nevertheless, the CPSCR notes considerable scope for improving coordination, especially in high level policy dialogue, as opposed to technical discussions at sector levels. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 14. There is no case of safeguard violations referred to the Inspection Panel. In the period FY08- FY12, the Department of Institutional Integrity (INT) recorded six allegations of fraud and corruption, and found sufficient basis to open three cases. Two of these were substantiated. Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar I: Reactivating the Economy, Promoting Productivity and Competitiveness 15. Under this pillar, WBG support aimed to (i) maintain an adequate macroeconomic framework for growth and poverty reduction, (ii) diversify and promote value added MSME sectors (urban and rural) in order to promote their increased participation in internal and external markets, (iii) improve land tenure security, and (iv) increase agricultural productivity and sustainable use of natural resources. 16. Maintain an adequate macroeconomic framework for growth and poverty reduction . Nicaragua was generally successful in maintaining an adequate macroeconomic framework for poverty reduction. It completed all reviews, albeit with delays and waivers of some conditions, under an IMF PRGF program and its principal macroeconomic indicators were consistent with fiscal and macro stability and sustainability. Inflation was brought under control. Public debt to GDP declined slightly from 81 to 79.4 percent during 2007-11. It should be noted, however, that Nicaragua remains highly dependent on (and potentially vulnerable to disruption of) substantial aid flows, remittances, and assistance and FDI from Venezuela. 17. Bank assistance played a relatively minor role in these broad macroeconomic outcomes although it is noteworthy that IDA disbursements increased from 3.8 percent of the total ODA in 2008 to 9.0 and 7.2 percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively. IDA thus increased resource transfers when these were most needed. Lending, including Hurricane Felix Emergency Response (FY08), Food Crisis Emergency Response (FY09), and Development Policy Credit (FY09), contributed to stepped-up support during the slump associated with the global financial crisis. The Bank’s Public Sector Management TA credit (FY04) was in principle also relevant to maintenance of fiscal discipline, although the specific role that this support might have played is not clear. The Public Expenditure Review (FY08) contained a number of useful recommendations for overall fiscal policy and sectoral expenditure policies that could potentially have contributed to strengthening the macroeconomic foundations for growth, but there is no evidence that these played a role in the dialogue with the government. The Bank also delivered a Poverty Assessment and Update (FY08 and FY11) and Poverty Monitoring and Evaluation TA (FY11). IFC investment doubled in FY08 (mainly due to a large investment in sugar production) and increased by another 13 percent in FY09 6 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group in the midst of the global crisis, demonstrating its counter-cyclical role. It may have also had the effect of mitigating other investors’ concerns about the Sandinistas’ mixed historical record with regard to recognition and protection of property rights. 18. Diversify and promote value added MSME sectors to promote their increased participation in internal and external markets. There is no data on the progress toward diversifying and increasing MSME production, or its shares of internal and external markets. Some progress was made in reducing the cost of doing business in some areas (e.g., reducing the number of days for business and property registration), which is reflected in the improvement of Nicaragua’s overall Ease of Doing Business ranking during FY11-12 after a sharp decline during FY08-10. Its Global Competitiveness Index score increased from 3.41 to 3.73 (out of 7) between 2008 and 2012. Some progress was also made in developing the institutional framework for increasing credit access for micro-enterprises, although policy reversals with regard to credit repayments discipline impeded developments in this area. 19. Bank support for this objective included a Land Administration project (FY02), which focused on improving property rights, and a MSME Development project (FY08), which supported reductions in administrative and regulatory obstacles for MSMEs and increased MSME access to credit through a credit risk guarantee facility and grants to develop bankable MSMEs. These were complemented by an Investment Climate Assessment (FY09) and IFC AS on Municipal Simplification (FY06). IFC’s planned expansion in the microfinance area, particularly in the beginning of the CPS period, was thwarted by the Government policy on defaults (Moratorium Law). Later, IFC was able to make adjustments within an existing project (Banco de Finanzas) that enabled more lending to MSMEs. Although the WBG support was modest in relation to the scope of the objective, it contributed to achieving the specific outcome targets identified in the CPS. 20. Improve land tenure security . The CPSCR provides no data bearing directly on land tenure security. The 2012 International Property Rights shows that Nicaragua continues to have poor regional st and global standing in terms of Physical Property Rights (21 among 22 Latin American countries (LAC) rd th th and 123 among 130 countries globally), Protection of Physical Property Rights (17 in LAC and 111 nd th globally), and Registering Property (22 in LAC and 124 globally). Nevertheless, the CPS benchmark for progress in land registration (demarcation, titling, and registration of indigenous territories) was met and some absolute improvement was recorded in the Overall Property Rights Index (which includes other forms of property, such as intellectual property, as well as physical property) from 3.7 to 3.9 in 2008-12. On the other hand, the CPIA rating for property rights and rule-based governance rating (3.0) remained unchanged from 2005 to 2011. 21. The Bank’s Land Administration project (FY02) provided support for the phased development and implementation of a land registration system, while the Institutional and Governance Review (FY08) laid out a practical strategy for strengthening Nicaragua’s land administration systems . They contributed directly to attainment of the CPS targets. The Institutional Governance Review argued that full development of an effective system for land tenure security is a long-term, politically complicated proposition and requires complementary judicial reforms for securing property rights after improvements in land administration. This helps explain why Nicaragua, while making clear progress over the CPS period, is still ranked poorly. 22. Increase agricultural productivity and sustainable use of natural resources. The CPSCR notes that the productivity picture is mixed, with declining productivity registered in some important export crops, but significant productivity growth (38 percent) in the production of basic grains. World Development Indicator (WDI) data on agricultural value added per worker show significant improvement (about 50 percent) over 2000-2010, with growth averaging 5 percent per annum over the period 2008-2010. Cereal yields also increased by about 25 percent during this period, with the years 2007-2010 accounting for 14 percent of the growth. These indicators are strongly influenced by weather considerations, but they do indicate productivity growth and are consistent with the hypothesis that this may have accelerated during the last years for which data are available. The CPSCR provides no data with regard to broad trends in sustainable use of natural resources. Productivity, technology adoption, and service usage benchmarks for various outputs of Bank assistance were met, while a benchmark for improved seed production was not achieved due to delays in processing the Additional Financing operation. 7 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 23. The Bank Group is one of several partners providing support for improving agricultural productivity. The European Union, Spain, and IADB were also involved and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) mounted a major program to increase productivity of basic grains. The Bank’s contributions were nd delivered via the Additional Financing to the 2 Agricultural Technology Project (FY10), which is providing some 39,000 producers with access to sustainable agricultural, forestry and natural resource management services, technology and innovations. The project is also supporting the development of forest management plans. Moreover, one of the objectives of the Food Emergency Crisis (FY09) was to promote poor rural households' food security by increasing agricultural production, although its efficacy in this regard was modest, while the Off-Grid Rural Electrification project (FY03), with GEF financing, also had sustainability objectives. Furthermore, a Country Environmental Assessment (FY10) covered the environmental impact assessment process in Nicaragua and an analysis of environmental degradation of the lake Nicaragua Watershed. There is no indication that it has had an impact on natural resource management. IFC strategy focused on agribusiness, contributing to agricultural productivity improvement in sugar, palm oil, and coffee sectors and reduction of the country’s dependence on fossil fuels for energy. Towards sustainable use of natural resources, IFC had devoted considerable effort over a long period to developing Nicaragua’s capacity to derive benefit from hardwood products for the domestic market and for exports. However, this is at risk now with a partial export ban imposed by the Government on unprocessed or semi-processed hardwood products. 24. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar I as moderately satisfactory. The Bank played a minor role in helping Nicaragua maintain a stable macroeconomic framework. Some progress was made in improving the business environment and in developing micro-enterprises’ access to credit, but there is no information on the extent to which this has led to further diversification and growth of the MSME sector. Progress was also made in improving land registration, although a visible impact on land tenure security is likely to take longer. The Bank contributed to improvement in agricultural productivity, albeit with delays in project implementation. There was an incipient contribution to environmental management through development of forest management plans, but forest coverage continued to decline during the CPS period and there is no information on improvement in the overall sustainability of natural resource utilization. Pillar II: Pro-Poor Investment in the Provision of Basic Services 25. Bank assistance under this pillar was intended to contribute to improved social (health and education) and infrastructure (water and sanitation, energy and telecommunications, and roads) services, and better development outcomes for RAAN and RAAS. 26. Improve access to health services and health outcomes for women and children and reduce chronic malnutrition among children (0-5 years old). Progress has been made in reducing infant mortality, from a baseline of 35 in 2006 to an estimated 21.5 in 2011, well below the CPS target of 26. Under-5 mortality rates are also declining. Estimated (on the basis of a model) maternal mortality rates are also falling, although this remains to be confirmed by data. There is no data on chronic malnutrition among children to measure progress. 27. The Bank’s Health Services Extension and Modernization Adaptable Program Loan II (FY05) supported a package of basic maternal and child health care services and extension of coverage of overall health care services. More recently, the Bank approved the Family and Community Health project (FY11) to finance capitation payments to improve access; it is at an early stage of implementation with no results reported thus far. The Food Emergency Crisis project (FY09) sought to mitigate the negative nutritional impact of the 2009 food price increase on pre-primary and primary school children; its efficacy in this regard was substantial as reflected in delivery of school lunches. The Epidemilogical Emergencies project (Fy10) contributed to mitigate the impact of the A/H1N1 Influenza and strengthen the country's overall epidemiological surveillance system and capacity to respond to future epidemiological emergencies. Analytical work included an assessment of environmental health challenges as part of an overall environment report. A Public Expenditure Review (PER, FY08) and a Social Sector PER (FY10) reviewed health expenditures and provided a number of potentially useful recommendations for reforms. However, no information on the uptake of these is presented in the CPSCR. IFC invested in a hospital which is adding a new 32-bed building to its existing facility and may (depending on the economic recovery) follow- 8 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group up with an oncology center and a tower with 67 new medical offices. With IFC's help, they were able to receive the US Joint Commission Accreditation in 2011. 28. Improve access to educational services and educational outcomes . Net primary enrollment rates increased from 87.7 percent in 2006 to 93.4 percent in 2011 (compared to CPS target of 90.1 percent by 2009). Primary completion rates also improved, from 62 to 68 percent for boys and from 75 to 82 percent for girls during 2004-2010, although these improvements fell slightly short of the CPS targets. Another CPS benchmark – the development of a reliable internal monitoring and evaluation system for access and quality by the Ministry of Education - was also met, although the CPSCR notes the need for some further improvements. 29. In the context of a multi-donor effort, the Bank’s Education projects (PASEN, FY05 and PASEN 2, FY12) supported a number of interventions to increase enrollment and quality of primary and secondary education, although implementation of the second project is only beginning. The PER (FY08) and Social Sector PER (FY10) also reviewed education spending and contained a number of recommendations for reforms, but there is no information on the uptake of these or their effect on the design of PASEN 2 is presented in the CPSCR. 30. Improve access to and quality of water and sanitation services. Progress with regard to this objective is unclear due to lack of monitoring data on a consistent basis. WDI shows a modest (1 percentage point) increase in both urban and rural access to improved water and sanitation between 2007 and 2008, with no change thereafter through 2010. The CPSCR provides some indication of increasing access to water and sanitation services in Managua, although it notes that water coverage (a CPS target) is no longer measured and access in the low-income areas was not reported. Progress also appears to have been made recently in rural areas, although it is impossible to determine the extent of this progress given existing data. The CPSCR notes that service expansion is undermined in Managua by poor cost recovery. 31. Bank support for this objective was provided through the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (FY08) and the Greater Managua Water and Sanitation (FY09) projects. Support was also provided by other donors in these sectors (e.g., Inter-American Development Bank in Managua). Implementation of the Bank projects seems to be on track (implementation progress rated moderately satisfactory), but it is premature to draw conclusions based on available data on the efficacy of these interventions. Recent non-lending support includes a Water Sector Policy Note (FY12). 32. Improve access to and quality of energy and telecommunications for rural areas. Progress was made in improving access to energy and telecommunications services in rural areas. Nationally, phones per 100 people increased from 4.5 to 4.9 in 2007-2011 per WDI data. The percentage of rural households with access to electricity increased from 28.9 to 44 percent in 2005-2009, exceeding the CPS target for 2012. No information is provided concerning electrical service quality. The percentage of rural communities with access to at least one public phone increased from 14 percent in 2006 to 83 percent in 2011, surpassing the CPS target of 70 percent. 33. Bank support via the Off-Grid Rural Electrification project (FY03) and Rural Telecommunication projects (FY06 and FY12) contributed to these results and pioneered the use of small private sector providers for provision of these services. IFC invested in the generation of electricity from small hydro units (26MW) and geothermal sources (72MW). Although these are not targeted at improving access to energy in rural areas, when completed, they will meet 20-25 percent of the energy demand sustainably and at a much lower cost, which may lead to improvement in affordability in rural areas. 34. Improve access to and quality of roads. Progress was made in extending access to all-season roads in rural areas and in reducing vehicle operating costs via improving road conditions. By 2009, an estimated 55 percent of the rural population was served by all-season roads, up from 19 percent in 2005 and well in excess of the 25 percent envisaged for 2011 in the CPS. The average estimated road roughness indicator also declined, with the improvement exceeding CPS expectations. 35. Bank supported this objective through the Road Rehabilitation and Maintenance IV and Additional Financing (FY06 and FY10) and Rural Roads Infrastructure and Maintenance (FY12) projects. Interventions by other partners also contributed to the outcomes outlined above. 9 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 36. Better development outcomes for the RAAN and RAAS. The CPSCR provides some data on access to infrastructure services (electricity, water, and roads) in these regions and the gaps between different regions in Nicaragua between 2005 and 2009. These are inconclusive as different indicators moved in different directions, and there is no information on progress since 2009. No data are provided on CPS targets of primary school enrollment or proportion of families receiving production credits. 37. Bank supported this objective through the same education and infrastructure projects for the other objectives under Pillar II. It also provided targeted assistance through TF under the Caribbean Coast Development Program (FY10 and FY12). 38. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar II as moderately satisfactory. The Bank achieved some progress in health outcomes for women and children, but there is no data available on chronic malnutrition among children, an overarching objective of the government. The Bank also helped improve enrollment and completion rates of primary education and the capacity of the Ministry of Education. Water access appears to have improved in both urban and rural areas with Bank support, although there is no recent data to confirm progress, while poor cost recovery undermined service expansions in Managua. Access to energy and telecommunication services has improved in rural areas, but information is lacking on service quality. Road access has expanded and there is indication of improving road quality. There is little evidence for improved development outcomes for the RAAN and RAAS. Overall, the outcomes under this Pillar are mixed and difficult to assess given the sparse data on basic social and infrastructure services. In many cases, the WBG’s contributions to the improvements are not identified or not identifiable. Pillar III: Strengthening Governance and Accountability 39. The objectives of Bank support under this Pillar included improving public sector accountability through better public sector planning and financial management and increased citizen participation in social accountability; and decentralization of public investment planning. 40. Improved public sector accountability, planning and financial management, and citizen participation in social accountability. Among the five CPS outcome targets, the CPSCR reports that three has not been achieved, one is not observable, and the other has been partially achieved (implementing a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, although weaknesses remain in linking planning and budgeting). Worldwide Governance Indicator data show no improvement in governance between 2006 and 2010. Nicaragua’s percentile ranking declined from 40.4 to 33.2 on Voice and Accountability; from 22.9 to 15.8 on Quality of Government; and from 26.8 to 23.4 on Corruption. Only on Regulatory Quality was there a modest improvement (38.2 to 40.2). 41. Bank support for these activities was provided through the State Modernization credits (FY04 and FY10), the Public Financial Management System Modernization Project (FY11), Public Expenditure Review (FY08), and M&E Non-Lending TA (FY10). 42. Decentralization of public investment planning. The CPSCR reports that this was dropped due to changes in approaches of the new administration to decentralization. 43. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar III as unsatisfactory. Governance deteriorated during the CPS period. The Bank’s support, which related to systems and processes for budget management and municipal investment planning, was of modest relevance and efficacy. Progress benchmarks were not met. Objectives CPSCR Rating IEG Rating Pillar I: Reactivating the economy, stimulating NA Moderately Satisfactory productivity and competitiveness Pillar II: Pro-poor investment in the delivery of basic NA Moderately Satisfactory services Pillar III: Strengthening governance and NA Unsatisfactory accountability 10 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 4. Overall IEG Assessment CPSCR Rating IEG Rating Overall Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory IDA Performance: Satisfactory Satisfactory IFC Performance: Satisfactory Overall outcome: 44. IEG rates the overall outcome of WBG assistance to Nicaragua as moderately satisfactory, concurring with the CPSCR rating. Under Pillar I, the Bank played a minor role in helping Nicaragua maintain a stable macroeconomic framework. Some progress was made in improving the business environment and in developing micro-enterprises’ access to credit, but there is no information on the extent to which this has led to further diversification and growth of the MSME sector. Progress was also made in improving land registration, although a visible impact on land tenure security is likely to take longer. The Bank contributed to Nicaragua’s improving agricultural productivity, albeit with delays in project implementation. There was an incipient contribution to sustainable resource utilization through helping farmers’ adopting new technologies and the development of forest management plans, but forest coverage continued to decline and there is no information on improvement in the overall sustainability of natural resource utilization. Under Pillar II, the Bank achieved some progress in health outcomes for women and children, but there is no data available on chronic child malnutrition. The Bank also helped improve enrollment and completion rates of primary education and the capacity of the Ministry of Education. Water access appears to have improved in both urban and rural areas with Bank support, although there is no recent data to confirm progress, while poor cost recovery undermined service expansions in urban areas. Access to energy and telecommunication services has improved in rural areas, but information is lacking on service quality. Road access has expanded and there is indication of improving road quality. There is little evidence for improved development outcomes in the RAAN and RAAS. Under Pillar III, governance deteriorated and the CPS benchmarks were not met. IDA Performance: 45. IEG rates IDA performance as satisfactory. During the CPS period, IDA was faced with the challenge of designing a strategy to support a country program that was still being developed, in the absence of a close policy dialogue with the Government and in the context of a very large number of development partners. The WBG strategy was well-aligned with Nicaragua’s development challenges and strategy, and adjusted proactively to maintain this alignment amid internal and external shocks and shifts in priorities. The results chain linking IDA interventions to the objectives was not always well articulated and the outcome indicators tended to be outputs of specific IDA projects. However, this reflects, at least in part, the fluid state in which the CPS was designed. Responding flexibly and promptly, IDA delivered more assistance than had been programmed and helped to meet emergency needs. Nicaragua portfolio performance compared favorably against LAC and Bank averages, and all projects reviewed by IEG were rated positively for their development outcomes. The fiduciary issues that arose could not have been forestalled by IDA. Coordination among external donors was not satisfactory overall, but this was beyond IDA’s control. IFC Performance: 46. IEG rates IFC performance as satisfactory. The IFC program was relevant for assisting exporters and hard currency earners and for addressing the bottleneck constraints in infrastructure as identified by the private sector. IFC support for trade financing through banks, however, was less relevant in a context where the banks had other sources of funds including those from Venezuela. During the review period, IFC built a substantial investment program that led to positive development effectiveness. However, the implementation of six out of nine AS projects was either unsuccessful, mostly unsuccessful or terminated before/shortly after approval. In particular, the AS project on improving municipal investment climate did not work in six out of seven municipalities. Poor program design, due to insufficient consideration of the 11 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group finances of the clients, or inappropriate choice of the clients, was a key factor in the poor performance of the AS projects. 5. Assessment of CPS Completion Report 47. The CPSCR is clear, concise, and candid in its assessment of WBG achievements in supporting Nicaragua’s development agenda. It is limited, however, by weaknesses in the results framework and weaknesses in Nicaragua’s data systems for monitoring and evaluation. Statements concerning outcomes and the factors contributing to them are thus difficult to assess. An example of this is the statements concerning recent reductions in rural poverty even though the latest data reported in the CPSCR are for 2009 and the development of innovative service delivery models. The report also says very little about the contributions of IDA’s AAA activities to CPS outcomes, while considerable learning could have been drawn from the failed IFC AS operations. 6. Findings and Lessons 48. The CPSCR summarizes the main lessons from the CPS period as: maintaining flexibility in response to emerging opportunities, including shifting resources from budget support to investment lending; developing a transparent M&E system to stimulate good governance; avoiding the proliferation of small operations that threaten to strain supervision resources; consolidating the portfolio around key lines of action; and focusing on institutional capacity building for engagement with the Autonomous Regions. IEG concurs with these lessons, which reflect the Bank’s operational experience during the CPS period. A cross-cutting theme is the complexity in designing and implementing a coherent and results-focused strategy in an environment that is not conducive to budget support, that makes it difficult to engage in high- level policy dialogue, that involves a large number of donors, that is characterized by limited client capacity, that is vulnerable to various shocks, and that has poor data for monitoring and evaluation. To address these issues, the CPSCR discusses several options to be explored during the implementation of the forthcoming CPS (e.g., an expanded role for Analytic and Advisory Activities (AAA) support, consolidation of the portfolio around a few key areas where dialogue and coordination may be feasible and effective). This review endorses the pragmatic approach recommended in the CPSCR, and underscores the value of tracking evaluation on progress toward extending the technical-level partnerships that have been developed to policy-level partnerships. Annexes 13 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CPS Objectives Annex Table 2: IDA Lending: Actual vs. Planned, FY08-FY12 Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY08-FY12 Annex Table 4: IDA Analytical and Advisory Work: Actual vs. Planned, FY08-FY12 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Nicaragua, FY08-FY12 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Nicaragua and Comparators, FY08-FY12 Annex Table 7: IDA Portfolio Status Indicators, FY08-FY12 (in US$ million) Annex Table 8: IDA Net Disbursement and Charges Summary Report for Nicaragua (in US$ million) Annex Table 9: List of IFC’s investments in Nicaragua during FY08-FY12 (US$’000) Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Nicaragua, FY08-FY12 Annex Table 11: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, FY08-FY10 (in US$ million) Annex Table 12: Economic and Social Indicators for Nicaragua and Comparators, FY08-FY10 Annex Table 13: Nicaragua - Millennium Development Goals Annexes 15 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CPS Objectives CAS 08-12: Pillar 1 Actual Results Comments Reactivating the Economic, Stimulating Productivity and (as of current month year) Competitiveness Major 1. Maintenance of an adequate macroeconomic framework for growth and poverty reduction Outcome Principal macroeconomic indicators are consistent No data available Measures with fiscal and macro stability and sustainability 2. Diversity and promote value added Micro-SME sector (urban and rural) in order to promote their increased participation in internal and external markets Number of days for business and property Time required to start a business is Obtain the Cadastre Certificate and valuation at registration (both Commercial Register and National 39 in 2008 and 2011. the Cadastre takes 14-21 days in 2012. Cadastre) in four departments reduced 30% Commercial Register days is expected to reduce At least 30% reduction in the average number from 42 days in 2006 to 35 days in 2010 of days to regularize property rights through the National Cadastre days is expected to reduce from Property Intendancy in the pilot area: 10 days 30 days in 2006 to 21 days in 2010 (2012 avg for the 4 depts: Chinandega, Esteli, Madriz & Leon compared with baseline in 2009 of 15 days in 2009) Source: World Development Indicators Doing Business World Bank CPSCR Land Administration (P056018) ISR Increase in access to credit for small and medium 65% female borrowers (Mix urban and rural Micro-SMEs with data segregated Market, 2011) by gender: Women’s participation will increase from 59 in 2008 to 65 in 2012 Increase by 50% the ASOMIF, finance companies No data available Source: and cooperative networks’ in Total Accounts & Loan CPSCR Portfolio Baseline (2003): 310, 300 US$138.4M Target (2012): 465, 450 US$207.6M 3. Improved land tenure security Indigenous communities have territories According to IDA, as of July 2009, Source: demarcated, titled and registered. Number of 9 territories have been duly World Bank territories baseline: 1 in 2006 target: 12 in 2010 demarcated, titled and registered. CPSCR and 15 in 2012 Another 6 territories belonging to indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples are due to be demarcated, titled and registered by 2010. 4. Increased agricultural productivity and sustainable use of natural resources Farmers participating in agricultural and forestry 39,000 producers served by Source: extension services have adopted at least two new INTA and INAFOR Second Agricultural Technology Project production and/or processing technologies. (P087046) ICR Baseline: 0 (2005) Target: 25,000 (2010) Men: 17,500 Women: 7,500 Productivity levels of farmers engaged in technical Productivity Indices of participating Source: assistance programs by INTA and FUNICA have farmers have increased on Second Agricultural Technology Project increased. average by at least 15 percent. (P087046) ICR Baseline: 100(2005) CPSCR Target: 115 (2010) Certified seed availability increased: No data available Additional Financing only became effective only Baseline: 1700(2009) (tons/years) in 2011. Results to be evaluated during 2012- Target: 11,000 (2012) (tons/year) 2013. Source: CPSCR Annexes 16 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group CAS 08-12: Pillar 2 Actual Results Comments Pro-Poor Investment in Delivery of Basic Services (as of current month year) Major 1. Reduce chronic malnutrition among children (0-5 years old) Outcome The prevalence of chronic malnutrition 23.0% in 2007 The country does not have an Measures in children under 5 years old will be updated figure until ENDESA 2012. reduced from 21.5% in 2005 to 18% in 2011 Source: WHO CPSCR 2. Improved access to health services and improved health outcomes for women and children Maternal, infant and child mortality Maternal mortality: 100 deaths/100,000 live births (2008) In 2008, the estimated maternal have been reduced. mortality rate is 100, it is estimated Maternal mortality ( per 100,000 live Infant Mortality: that it will be reduced to 95 in 2010. births) 25 (2008) Baseline: 96 (2006) 23 (2010) Source: Target: 26( 2011) 21.86/1000 (2011 est) UNESCO Estimates developed by Infant Mortality ( per 1,000) WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA and The Baseline: 35 (2006) World Bank Target: 26( 2011) CIA The World Fact 3. Improved access to educational services and improved educational outcomes Net primary enrollment (% of relevant Net primary enrollment rate is 93 in 2008 and 92 in 2010. Source: age group) UNESCO Baseline: 87.7% (2006) Target: 90.1%( 2009) Primary school completion rate Gross primary graduation ratio: Source: Baseline: Boys 62 (2004) Male: 67 (2008) 73(2010) UNESCO Girls 75(2004) Female: 76 (2008) 80(2010) Progress: Boys 66 (2008) Girls 73.9(2008) Target: Boys 75 (2010) Girls 85(2010) MINED has developed a reliable No data available MINED has a reliable internal M&E internal M&E system which generates system, but it remains overly information on key education quality centralized and requires further and access indicators. The system automation and integration. includes periodic standardized testing, results of which offer comparisons to Source: previous years. CPSCR 4. Improved access to and quality of water and sanitation services Increased water and sanitation Drinking water: 92% (2008) 92%(2010) coverage in Managua (% of population) Source: Water Sanitation: 61% (2008) 63%(2010) WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Baseline: 60% (2005) Programme for Water Supply and Target: 85( 2012) Sanitation (JMP) Sanitation CPSCR Baseline: 57% (2005) Target: 80( 2012) Increased effective water and Drinking water: 72% (2008) 74%(2010) Source: sanitation coverage in rural areas (% of WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring population) Sanitation: 36% (2008) 37%(2010) Programme for Water Supply and Water Sanitation (JMP) Baseline: 44% (2005) CPSCR Target: 70( 2012) Sanitation Baseline: 69% (2005) Target: 90( 2012) 5. Improved quality and access to energy and telecommunications for rural areas Percentage of households in rural 72.1% in 2009 (Latest data available) areas which have access to electricity. Source: Baseline: 28.9 (2005) WDI Target: 40( 2012) CPSCR Percentage of rural population with 83% (2011, TELCOR). access to at least one public Source: CPSCR telephone. Baseline: 14% (2006) Annexes 17 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group CAS 08-12: Pillar 2 Actual Results Comments Pro-Poor Investment in Delivery of Basic Services (as of current month year) Target: 70%( 2011) 6. Improved access to and quality of roads Increased access to all-season roads- 55% (LSMS, 2009) Source: CPSCR percent of rural population. Baseline: 19% (2005) Target: 25%( 2011) 15% reduction in vehicle operating IRI= 8 in 2006 Source: costs, as measured by lowered road IRI = 3.6 in 2012 P083952 roughness indices CPSCR Baseline: 9 (2005) Target: 5( 2010) 7. Reduce poverty in the Autonomous Regions of the Caribbean Coast (RAAN and RAAS) Pac. Cent. RAAN/S URBAN Access to Electricity (2006) 86.8% 56.8% 34.2% Atlántic Pac-Atl gaps Cen-Atl gaps Source: CPSCR Access to Electricity Children in Primary Sch. (2006) 2005 80.1 8.3 10.0 86.1% 84.9% 80.8% 2009 90.5 0.7 7.1 Access to Paved Roads/Aquatic Access to Water Transport (2006) 2005 44.0 3.6 43.6 60% 39% 9.9% 2009 64.9 5.0 21.5 % families receiving production credits Access to Paved roads (2004) 2005 27.3 15.9 39.8 60% 39% 9.9% 2009 47.4 3.6 30.8 Access to Potable Water (2006) RURAL 82.8% 63.2% 31.2% Atlántic Pac-Atl gaps Cen-Atl gaps Electricity 2005 8.8 37.8 23.9 2009 6.8 27.9 37.0 Water 2005 13.3 9.1 12.8 2009 5.4 18.2 16.5 Paved roads 2005 0.4 9.2 19.4 2009 3.9 12.1 13.2 Source: LSMS 2005, 2009 Annexes 18 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group CAS 08-12: Pillar 3 Actual Results Comments Strengthening Governance and Accountability (as of current month year) Major 1. Improved civil service management Outcome 2. Increased public sector accountability: improved public sector planning and financial management: and increased citizen Measures participation in social accountability National monitoring and evaluation system Efforts to align the diverse M&E Source: designed and implemented, strengthening SIGFA, systems across government saw CPSCR SYSODA and the M& E system in Health and some progress, while the e reform Education ministries of budget classification was delayed until the design of SIGFA II. As such, it remains difficult to track program indicators in the budget and to attribute their contribution to overall goals. Medium term expenditure framework (including all The MTEF has been rolled out to Source: norms and guidelines consistent with M& E) is all 19 central government and all CPSCR implemented in all central government entities and 41 decentralized agencies, but key decentralized agencies weaknesses remain in linking planning and budgeting. Existing information is very rich but requires additional coordination to consolidate the MTEF. SIGFA 2 has been fully implemented and is used The new SIGFA is still in Source: as an important tool to formulate, develop, execute development stage. The PMSAF CPSCR and monitor public policies, especially those related project was approved in FY10 and to poverty reduction. is now in implementation. All public entities of Central government certified by No advances were observed in the Source: CGR for the use and implementation of the certification and implementation of CPSCR Technical Norms of Internal Control according to the Technical Norms of Internal international standards. Control according to international Baseline: 43% (2006) standards. Target: 100% ( 2012) 3. Decentralization Increase in percentage of public investment No data available The SNIP methodology changed under the new programs registered in SNIP which were proposed administration. A network of Citizen Councils at municipal level (instead of the Local Public Investment Units) is Baseline: 30% (2007) used channel to local needs into central Target: 60% ( 2012) government plans. As such, the SNIP only registers the capital transfers to municipal governments. Source: CPSCR Annexes 19 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex 2: IDA Lending: Actual vs. Planned, FY08-FY12 Project Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Project Outcome FY FY Amount Amount ID Rating Planned (CPS FY08-12) NI Development Policy Credit 2008 2009 20 20 P106747 IEG: MS* NI PRSC Series 2009 2009 20 Dropped P110083 Nicaragua Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (PRASNICA) 2008 2008 20 20 P106283 LIR: MS NI Greater Managua Water and Sanitation (PRASMA) 2009 2009 45 40 P110092 LIR: MS NI-Public Sector Technical Assistance 2010 2010 10 Dropped P093058 NI (AF) Land Administration 2010 2010 10 Dropped P106894 Additional Financing to the Second Agricultural Technology Project (GFRP) 2010 2010 10 10 P114375 LIR: S AF Transport IV 2010 2010 20 Dropped P076246 Rural Roads Infrastructure Improvement Project 2012 2012 30 35 P123447 LIR: S Health System Strengthening and Response to Epidemiological Emergencies Project 2010 2010 5 5 P112906 LIR: S Total programmed projects CPS FY08-12 130.0 Non-programmed projects Nicaragua Social Protection 2011 19.5 P121779 LIR: S Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise Development 2008 20 P109691 LIR: MS Second Support to the Education Sector Project PASEN 2 2012 25 P126357 LIR: S Improving Community and Family Health Care Services Project 2011 21 P106870 LIR: S Nicaragua Hurricane Felix Emergency Recovery Project 2008 17 P108974 LIR: MS Nicaragua Rural Telecom Additional Finance 2012 5 P129264 LIR: S Price Vulnerability (Food Crisis) 2009 7 P114441 IEG: MS Additional Finance Fourth Roads Rehabilitation and Maintenance Project 2010 39.3 P119709 LIR: S Total non-programmed projects CPS FY08-12 153.80 Total Projects CPS FY08-12 283.80 On Going Projects Proposed Approval Closed Approved Project Outcome Amount FY FY Amount ID Rating FIN SCTR ADJ/IDA REF 1999 N/A 1.4 P065541 LIR: S Basic Education Project - Supplemental Credit 1999 N/A 13.2 P064672 LIR: S ERC II IDA Reflow 1994 N/A 7.6 P037558 NI Enhanced Competitiveness For International Market Integration 2007 2012 17 P092949 LIR: MU Broad-Based Access to Financial Services 2004 2013 7 P077826 LIR: S Nicaragua – Education Project 2005 2011 15 P078990 LIR: MS Second Rural Municipal Development Project 2001 2008 28.7 P055823 IEG: MS Land Administration 2002 2013 32.6 P056018 LIR: S Public Sector Technical Assistance Project 2004 2010 23.5 P078891 IEG: MS Health Services Extension and Modernization (2nd APL) 2005 2010 11 P078991 IEG: MS Offgrid Rural Electrification (PERZA) 2003 2012 12 P073246 LIR: S Natural Disaster Vulnerability Reduction 2001 2009 13.5 P064916 IEG: MS Nicaragua Rural Telecom 2006 2015 7 P089989 LIR: S Second Agricultural Technology Project 2006 2014 12 P087046 LIR: S Fourth Roads Rehabilitation and Maintenance Project 2006 2013 60 P083952 LIR: S Total On Going Projects CPS FY08-12 292.40 Source: Nicaragua FY08-12 CPS and CPSPR as of 9/26/2012 * LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. Annexes 20 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY08-FY12 Project Approval Closing Approved Amount TF ID Project ID FY FY 2012 Active 850,000.00 TF 11097 Investment Phase under the Caribbean Coast Development 2012 Active 850,828.00 TF 10432 P126788 Program 2012 Active 2,470,367.00 TF 99797 Save the Children - Grant Investment Phase under the Caribbean Coast Development Program 2012 2013 1,200,000.00 TF 99791 P126812 Nicaragua FCPF REDD Readiness 2012 2013 200,000.00 TF 99264 P120657 Nicaragua Social Protection 2012 2013 2,750,000.00 TF 10216 P121779 Drought-Hardy "Food Forests" to Help Miskito Children Weather the Storm 2011 2013 200,000.00 TF 97650 P121135 NI Public Financial Management Modernization Project 2009 2011 800,000.00 TF 93095 P111795 Improving Community and Family Health Care Services Project 2011 2013 398,000.00 TF 97259 P106870 Nicaragua Food Emergency support Program for School Children 2011 2013 2,970,387.00 TF 97212 P122181 Nicaragua Influenza Response 2011 2012 300,000.00 TF 96749 P116470 2010 2011 88,759.00 TF 96806 2010 2011 37,612.53 TF 96807 P120904 2010 2011 25,200.00 TF 96246 Nicaragua Caribbean Coast Development Program (Initial Phase) 2010 2011 44,810.00 TF 96090 Grant for Alternative Indigenous and Afro-Des. Agrof. Project in Nicaragua 2009 2013 1,992,500.00 TF 93115 P115882 Price Vulnerability (Food Crisis) /former Product ID: P113225 2009 2011 7,000,000.00 TF 93698 P114441 Nicaragua Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (PRASNICA) 2008 2009 1,000,000.00 TF 90645 P106283 Modernization and Harmonization of Nicaragua's Commercial Regulatory Framework 2009 2012 358,000.00 TF 92923 P109604 NI Debt Reduction Facility - Debt Buy-Back 2008 2009 61,000,000.00 TF 90511 P104543 Second Agricultural Technology Project 2011 2013 2,050,000.00 TF 99911 P087046 NICARAGUA - Health Services Extension & Modernization (III APL) 2007 2008 827,600.00 TF 56965 P100629 Precious Woods Project 2006 2019 1,261,013.25 TF 56528 P094154 Broad-Based Access to Financial Services 2008 2010 210,000.00 TF 57844 P077826 Nicaragua – Education Project 2007 2011 17,000,000.00 TF 57311 P078990 Public Technical Assistance Project 2005 2010 13,126,581.04 TF 54143 P078891 Preparation of Commercial Debt Reduction Program 2004 2009 800,000.00 TF 53400 P088724 Nicaragua Off-Grid Rural Electrification 2003 2012 4,020,000.00 TF 51960 P075194 Total FY08-12 134,190,170.82 Source: Client Connection Nicaragua FY08-FY12 as of 9/26/2012 Annexes 21 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: IDA Analytical and Advisory Work: Actual vs. Planned, FY08-FY12 AAA ID Proposed Delivery to Output Type FY Client FY Economic and Sector Work Planned (CPS FY08-12) Central America Energy Markets P110201 FY10 FY10 Report Social Services Accountability (Regional) P106570 FY08 FY10 Report Investment Climate Assessment P107090 FY09 FY09 Report Public Expenditure Review P094881 FY07 FY08 Report Country Economic Memorandum P123253 FY10 Delayed to FY 13 Report Poverty Assessment P122837 FY11 FY11 Report Nicaragua Institutional and Governance Review P101317 FY07 FY08 Report Energy Strategy P101406 FY07 FY07 Report Gender Notebooks (with IADB) P114639 FY08 FY11 Report Central America Crime and Violence Report P095704 FY09 FY10 Report Country Environmental Assessment P101330 FY11 FY10 Report FSAP Update P118049 FY10 FY10 Report Central America Disaster Risk Management and Reduction Strategy P101639 FY11 FY11 Report Pharm. Policies and Strengthening Health systems P108625 FY10 FY10 Report Non-planned DeMPA Assessment - Nicaragua P124103 FY11 FY12 Report Nicaragua Poverty Assessment P101315 FY07 FY08 Report Nicaragua - Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes - Accounting and Auditing P118982 FY10 FY11 Report Nicaragua Country Environmental Analysis P101330 FY09 FY10 Report Economics of Sanitation Initiative P132170 FY12 FY14 Report Strengthening government capacity for R P132167 FY10 FY11 Report MTDS Follow Up - Nicaragua P121389 FY10 FY11 Report Nicaragua Agriculture Public Expenditure Review P127573 FY11 FY13 Report Technical Assistant Planned (CPS FY08-12) GAP - INNOVATIONS FOR RURAL WOMEN'S ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT in Nicaragua P110870 FY08 FY12 Advisory Services Document NI-TA-Improved Small-Scale Energy Supply P103865 FY07 FY10 "How-To" Guidance Institutional Development NI Nutrition (TA) P101909 FY08 FY11 Plan Institutional Development M & E technical assistance for INIDE P118230 FY11 FY11 Plan Central America Probabilistic Risk Analysis (CAPRA) P125899 FY11 Active Technical Assistance Loan Non-planned Nicaragua: Consumer Protection # 10136 P126916 FY11 FY13 Advisory Services Document Institutional Development NI - Land Administration P108881 FY08 FY10 Plan Institutional Development Nicaragua FLEG Support Project P112277 FY09 FY09 Plan Institutional Development Nicaragua Public Sector Advisory Services P114994 FY09 FY10 Plan Institutional Development NI Poverty Monitor & Policy Evaluation II P122837 FY11 FY11 Plan Institutional Development NI Poverty Monitor & Policy Evaluation P118230 FY10 FY11 Plan Nicaragua Strategic Implementation Planning Framework P122739 FY10 FY11 "How-To" Guidance Nicaragua Social Sector PER P107245 FY07 FY10 "How-To" Guidance FIRST: Nicaragua Design of MIS for Deposit insurance agency P105489 FY07 FY09 "How-To" Guidance Supporting poor-inclusive WSS Reform P132171 FY12 FY15 Advisory Services Document Strengthening government capacity for Rural and Peri urban WS projects P132169 FY12 FY15 Advisory Services Document Source: Nicaragua CPS/CPSPR as of 9/26/2012 Annexes 22 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Nicaragua, FY08-FY12 Exit FY Project Name Project ID Total IEG Outcome IEG Risk to Evaluated Development (US$M) Outcome* 2009 NI Natural Disaster Vulnerability Reduce P064916 15.3 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2009 NI Development Policy Credit P106747 18.3 Moderately Satisfactory High 2010 NI Public Sector TA P078891 23.0 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2010 NI - (APL2)Health Sector II P078991 10.3 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2011 NI-Emergency Food Price Response Project P114441 0.0 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of as of 07/26/2012. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Nicaragua and Comparators, FY08-FY12 RDO% Total Total RDO% Outcome % Outcome % Moderate or Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Sat ($) Sat (No) Lower Sat ($M) (No) Lower Sat ($)* (No)* Nicaragua 66.9 5 100.0 100.0 72.7 80.0 LCR 14,737.9 172 91.1 76.2 84.6 72.3 World 63,361.3 808 84.7 72.9 68.7 55.9 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of as of 10/04/2012. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes 23 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: IDA Portfolio Status Indicators, FY08-FY12 (in US$ million) Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nicaragua # Proj 13 13 12 14 14 14 # Proj At Risk 1 2 3 2 1 0 % At Risk 8 15 25 14 7 0 Net Comm Amt 250.6 277.1 304.9 339.1 381.8 381.8 Comm At Risk 32.6 32.0 52.0 27.0 20.0 0 % Commit at Risk 13.0 11.5 17.1 8.0 5.2 0.0 LCR # Proj 260 263 270 261 257 259 # Proj At Risk 60 64 58 55 60 58 % At Risk 23 24 21 21 23 22.4 Net Comm Amt 17,848.8 25,683.7 31,610.2 31,952.1 32,733.3 33549.3 Comm At Risk 3,666.6 3,201.9 5,264.0 3,138.9 4,356.4 4995.8 % Commit at Risk 20.5 12.5 16.7 9.8 13.3 14.9 World # Proj 1,384 1,408 1,449 1,454 1,371 1376 # Proj At Risk 250 310 328 302 304 306 % At Risk 18 22 23 21 22 22 Net Comm Amt 104,145.2 128,471.6 155,683.9 165,792.3 166,208.1 167482.8 Comm At Risk 18,179.3 19,539.0 27,683.8 22,573.0 23,324.5 24290.0 % Commit at Risk 17.5 15.2 17.8 13.6 14.0 14.5 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3a.4 as of 08/9/2012. Annex Table 8: IDA Net Disbursement and Charges Summary Report for Nicaragua (in US$ million) FY Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer 2008 24.5 0.00 24.5 1.1 1.5 21.9 2009 62 0.1 61.9 0.00 2.5 59.4 2010 52.8 0.2 52.5 0.00 3 49.5 2011 41.7 0.6 41 0.00 3.3 37.8 2012 64 2.8 61.2 0.00 3.6 57.6 Total 2008-2012 244.9 3.8 241 1.1 13.8 230.9 Source: WB Loan Kiosk, Net Disbursement and Charges Report as of 10/04/2012. Annexes 24 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: List of IFC’s investments in Nicaragua during FY08-FY12 (US$’000) Project Cmt. Closure Project IFC Industry IFC Sector Project Net Total Net Net Equity ID FY FY Status Group Primary Size Loans Commitment Investments approved pre-FY08, but active during FY08-FY12 FM Industry Finance & 20524 2004 2010 Closed 5,000 5,000 0 5,000 Group Insurance FM Industry Finance & 23880 2007 2012 Closed 5,000 5,000 0 5,000 Group Insurance MAS Wholesale and 24856 2006 Active Industry 10,000 10,000 0 10,000 Retail Trade Group MAS Agriculture and 25331 2007 Active Industry 62,000 25,000 0 25,000 Forestry Group Subtotal 222,000 45,000 0 45,000 Project Cmt. Closure Project IFC Industry IFC Sector Project Net Total Net Net Loans ID FY FY Status Group Primary Size Equity Commitment Investments approved in FY08-FY12 MAS Agriculture and 26009 2008 Active Industry 62,000 50,000 0 50,000 Forestry Group FM Industry Finance & 26027 2008 Active 20,000 8,000 0 8,000 Group Insurance FM Industry Finance & 26287 2008 Active 5,000 24,569 0 24,569 Group Insurance MAS Agriculture and 26819 2009 Active Industry 52,000 25,000 0 25,000 Forestry Group MAS 26820 2008 Active Industry Health Care 25,900 11,000 0 11,000 Group Infra Industry 26950 2009 Active Electric Power 2,000 2,000 0 2,000 Group MAS Agriculture and 27243 2009 Active Industry 24,369 6,300 3,000 9,300 Forestry Group Infra Industry 27676 2011 Active Electric Power 344,000 50,300 0 50,300 Group FM Industry Finance & 27769 2009 2010 Closed 5,000 5,000 0 5,000 Group Insurance FM Industry Finance & 27968 2009 Active 5,000 13,880 0 13,880 Group Insurance MAS Agriculture and 28081 2009 Active Industry 32,000 5,000 0 5,000 Forestry Group FM Industry Finance & 28207 2010 Active 5,000 1,568 0 1,568 Group Insurance FM Industry Finance & 29570 2011 Active 5,000 5,797 0 5,797 Group Insurance MAS Agriculture and 29974 2010 Active Industry 9,000 9,000 0 9,000 Forestry Group Subtotal 596,269 217,414 3,000 220,414 Grand Total 818,269 262,414 3,000 225,208 Source: IFC, March 2012- The list does not cover the regional projects. MAS: Manufacturing, Agriculture, and Services; FM: Financial Markets Annexes 25 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Nicaragua, FY08-FY12 Project Primary Total Project ID Project Name Start FY End FY Status Business Line Funds, US$ Advisory Services operations approved pre-FY08, but active during FY08-FY12 Sustainable 522793 WWF Partnership 2005 2008 Closed 194,075 Business Advisory Investment 541483 National Plan for Nicaragua 2006 2010 Closed 568,413 Climate Sustainable 542244 Supply Chain Wood 2007 2009 Closed 1,295,958 Business Advisory Upgrade of FINDESA's operations to Access To 542266 2006 2010 Closed 485,000 commercial bank standards Finance Access To 543644 Nic Leasing 2007 2009 Closed 290,000 Finance Subtotal: 2,833,446 Advisory Services operations approved in FY08-FY12 Sustainable 570328 InfoDev-BI-Nicar 2009 2012 Closed 488,000 Business Advisory 571147 NIPP-RE El Salto 2009 2010 Terminated PPP (Infra. Adv.) 400,000 Sustainable 575307 SMG Wood Supply 2010 2012 Terminated 410,156 Business Advisory Sustainable 580708 Ecom Renovation - Nicaragua 2011 Active 434,831 Business Advisory Subtotal: 1,732,987 Grand Total 4,566,433 Source: Source: IFC, May 2012 Annexes 26 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, FY08-FY10 (in US$ million) Development Partners 2008 2009 2010 Bilaterals Australia .. .. 0.96 Austria 8.59 7.85 8.35 Belgium 9.92 3.66 3.48 Canada 16.83 13.56 12.53 Denmark 37.95 27.01 31.79 Finland 17.49 15.11 17.05 France 1.35 1.13 0.96 Germany 26.08 28.8 27.71 Ireland 3.23 1.71 2.15 Italy 1.28 4.28 1.77 Japan 43.77 17.39 34.37 Korea 9.07 14.84 5.6 Luxembourg 16.39 11.85 9.45 Netherlands 36.96 30.95 26.37 New Zealand 0.32 0.4 0.05 Norway 19.99 17.46 18.49 Portugal .. 0.05 .. Spain 125.36 142.37 106.18 Sweden 33.46 27.95 10.54 Switzerland 18.1 10.12 14.94 United Kingdom 10.66 7.06 7.25 United States 103.53 89.34 54.47 DAC Countries, Total 540.33 472.89 394.46 Czech Republic 0.75 0.71 .. Iceland 2.23 1.53 0.72 Israel 0.03 0.05 0.01 Poland .. .. 0.01 Slovak Republic .. 0.01 .. Turkey 0.01 .. 0.02 United Arab Emirates .. .. 0.02 Non-DAC Countries, Total 3.02 2.3 0.78 Multilaterals EU Institutions 34.79 46.13 21.89 GAVI 0.47 1.58 5.79 GEF 4.3 0.4 4.13 Global Fund 4.48 14.11 10.7 IAEA 0.28 0.3 0.6 IDA 28.28 69.68 44.49 IDB Sp.Fund 76.28 113.07 107.78 IFAD 5.29 1.87 3.57 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) 29.07 36.7 19.53 Nordic Dev.Fund 4.67 9.52 2.42 OFID 2.72 -1.61 0.05 UNAIDS .. .. 0.1 UNDP 2.74 2.41 2.23 UNFPA 1.61 1.55 1.45 UNICEF 0.74 1.28 0.81 UNTA 1.4 .. .. WFP 0.25 0.45 0.08 Multilateral Agencies, Total 197.37 297.44 225.62 All Development Partners, Total 740.72 772.63 620.86 Source: OECD DAC Online database, Table 2a. Destination of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid - Disbursements, as of 07/26/2012. Annexes 27 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: Economic and Social Indicators for Nicaragua and Comparators, FY08-FY11 Nicaragua Nicaragua Latin America World Series Name 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 2008-2011 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 2.8 -1.5 4.5 4.7 2.6 3.3 1.5 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 1.4 -2.8 3.1 3.2 1.2 2.1 0.4 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 2,640.0 2,550.0 2,660.0 2840.0 2,672.5 11,051.8 10,935.6 GNI, Atlas method (current US mil. $) 5,970.5 5,983.9 6,350 6,842.1 6,286.6 4,491,628 61,583,607 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 19.8 3.7 5.5 8.1 9.3 .. .. Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 20.2 19.9 20.8 21.5 20.6 6.1 2.8 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 29.3 29.2 29.6 31.1 29.8 31.4 26.2 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 50.5 50.9 49.6 47.4 49.6 62.5 71.0 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 31.1 27.2 27.0 29.7 28.7 20.3 20.1 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) -4.8 -2.4 -1.2 -0.8 -2.3 21.4 20.1 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 34.6 34.7 42.6 45.9 39.5 23.3 27.6 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 72.6 60.5 69.7 78.1 70.2 23.8 27.9 Current account balance (% of GDP) -23.7 -12.5 -13.4 -17.8 -16.8 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 68.8 78.4 76.9 .. 74.7 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 6.7 8.7 8.3 .. 7.9 3.3 .. Total reserves in months of imports 2.4 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.3 8.4 13.4 Fiscal Accounts /1 Revenue (% of GDP) 19 18.9 19.7 .. 19.2 .. .. Total Expenditure (% of GDP) 138 126 127 132 130.8 .. .. Overall Balance Including Grants (% of GDP) -23.7 -12.5 -13.4 -17.8 -16.8 .. .. Public Sector Debt (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 73.1 73.4 73.7 .. 73.4 73.9 69.4 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 96.0 98.0 98.0 .. 97.3 92.5 84.4 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 52.0 52.0 52.0 .. 52.0 78.2 62.0 Improved water source (% of population with access) 85.0 85.0 85.0 .. 85.0 93.7 87.9 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 24.6 23.7 22.6 .. 23.6 18.9 42.0 Population Population, total (in million) 6 6 6 6 6 586 6,855 Population growth (annual %) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 Urban population (% of total) .. .. 57.3 .. 57.3 78.9 50.3 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 56.1 .. 55.4 .. 55.7 69.8 46.8 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 118.1 .. 117.6 .. 117.8 115.0 106.2 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 68.0 .. 69.4 .. 68.7 89.3 69.3 1/ IMF. Article IV Consultations and The Economist Intelligence Unit database. Source: WB World Development Indicators for all indicators excluding Fiscal Accounts data Annexes 28 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: Nicaragua - Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 55 54 56 58 60 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 47 46 46 46 46 GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) .. .. .. .. .. Income share held by lowest 20% .. 4.0 6.0 6.0 .. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 10 8 4 .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) .. 6 4 2 .. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) .. 18 14 12 .. Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. 39 46 45 .. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. 89 89 .. Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. 84 85 .. Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. .. 52 50 .. Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) 39 49 66 75 81 Total enrollment, primary (% net) 68 75 83 95 94 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 15 11 10 21 21 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 107 103 101 97 98 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) 163 .. 117 113 110 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) 107 104 108 109 .. Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural .. .. .. 38.3 .. employment) Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 82 85 86 95 99 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 52 42 34 28 23 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000) 68 54 43 34 27 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) .. 133 125 115 108 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) .. 61 67 74 .. Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) .. 49 69 72 .. Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 170 150 130 110 95 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. 72 86 90 .. Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. .. 15 8 .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever) .. .. 2 .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. 7 .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 108 85 68 53 42 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Tuberculosis case detection rate (all forms) 66 72 70 66 100 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Forest area (% of land area) 38 .. 32 29 26 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 43 46 48 50 52 Improved water source (% of population with access) 74 77 80 83 85 Marine protected areas (% of total surface area) 1 13 16 37 37 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 80.0 140.0 110.0 141.0 107.0 Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports, excluding workers' remittances) 2 42 17 4 3 Internet users (per 100 people) 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.6 10.0 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 0 0 2 21 65 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 1 2 3 4 4 Other Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 5 4 3 3 3 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 310 520 730 890 1,100 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 1.3 2.4 3.7 4.8 6.3 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 19.3 22.0 30.2 29.5 25.8 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 64 67 70 72 74 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) .. .. 77 78 .. Population, total (millions) 4120797 4637040 5073704 5424336 5788163 Trade (% of GDP) 71.3 53.8 75.0 87.5 112.3 Source: World Development Indicators database as of 07/27/2012.