93084 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CPS Data Country: Cabo Verde CPS Year: FY09 CPS Period: FY09 – FY12 CPSCR Review Period: FY09 – FY12 Date of this review: December 1, 2014 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the FY09-FY12 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) of FY09 and the CPS Progress Report (CPSPR) of FY11, and assesses the CPS Completion Report (CPSCR). The CPS was implemented by IBRD/IDA and this review covers their program. IFC was not a part of the CPS process or design, although it did invest in activities that helped achieve some CPS objectives related to the business climate. ii. The Bank’s CPS consisted of three pillars. Pillar I. Promoting Good Governance and Public Sector Capacity, through reduced and better-managed liabilities; strengthened management of public resources at central and local levels, and strengthened public administration regulatory and oversight role. Pillar II. Improving Competitiveness and the Investment Climate for Private Sector-Led Growth, through improved business climate and improved access to and quality of key economic infrastructure services. And Pillar III. Strengthening Human Capital and Social Inclusion through better positioning of the education and TVET sectors to meet the needs of the labor market and improved targeting of public expenditures and specific programs. iii. Regarding Pillar I, during the CPS period there were important achievements in government management of its liabilities, management of its budget, and strengthening public administration. However, achievements fell short in some of the indicators related to the implementation of the national monitoring and evaluation system, which were central to improve government oversight of the public investment program. With respect to Pillar II, there were achievements in improving the business climate, but the infrastructure enabling environment actions did not materialize on sufficient scale. Regarding Pillar III, the country made progress in strengthening technical and vocational education and training (TVET) to meet labor market needs, but the Bank’s support, which was provided mainly through analytical work and not enough funding support, contributed little to this outcome. There was limited achievement in improving the targeting of public expenditures and social programs. This review rates the overall outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory and World Bank performance as Fair. iv. The CPSCR draws a number of lessons to be heeded in the next CPS. These lessons include: a) the results matrix needs to be aligned only with outcomes of projects in the portfolio, and not with outcomes dependent on external factors; b) the Bank could assist Cape Verde in facilitating South-South exchanges on sector reforms and on the provision of guidance to low-income countries; and c) stronger institutional capacity building will be necessary to strengthen the sector ministries, particularly in the collection, evaluation, and dissemination of the data needed to monitor their projects and programs. IEG generally concurs with these lessons. In addition, IEG finds it important for the next CPS Results Framework to ensure stronger links between objectives, outcomes, and resources deployed. The causality chain between these was often difficult to identify weakening both implementation and accountability. Finally, IEG finds that the value of a candid assessment of risk to development outcomes during the Implementation Status Report and CPS Progress Report processes could enable mid-course correction and provide more solid ground to assess the likelihood and sustainability of achievements. CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CPSCR Review Coordinator Pablo Guerrero Jiro Tominaga, Geeta Batra, Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC Manager, IEGCC For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group 3. WBG Strategy Summary Overview of CPS Relevance: Country Context: 1. The CPS was designed in the context of a significant global crisis that impacted Cape Verde. Specifically, in 2009 Cape Verde faced a decline in foreign aid, in foreign direct investment, in tourism arrivals, and a decrease in disposable household income. But, remittances increased from $61.5 million in 2008 to a range between $131 and 177 million during the CPS period. Data shows that real GDP growth contracted by 1.3 percent in 2009, having grown 6.7 percent the year before. The budget deficit was 5.9 percent of GDP in 2009 and reached an average of over 10 percent in 2010-2012. The trade deficit also increased during the CPS period and FDI dropped from 11.8 percent of GDP in 2008 to 4 percent in 2012. The debt/GDP ratio increased from 35 percent in 2008 to 64.4 percent in 2012. The economic contraction had a dampening effect on annual consumer price increases that ranged between 1 and 4.5 percent during the CPS period. Official unemployment as a percent of total labor force stayed around 10 percent during the period. Data on poverty for the majority of the CPS period is not available. Elections took place in mid-2011 that resulted in shared government that led to some CPS changes in funding priorities. According to the CPSCR, Cape Verde is on track to meet the MDGs. 2. Cape Verde began work on its own Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper II in 2008, and this strategy served to anchor the Bank's CPS 2009-2012 and the support from other relatively important "donors", including the European Union, the African Development Bank, and Portugal among others. The GPRSP II laid out priorities in five major areas: government reform, human resources, economic competitiveness, infrastructure, and social cohesion. Objectives of the WBG Strategy: 3. The Bank’s CPS contained three pillars. Pillar I. Promoting Good Governance and Public Sector Capacity, through reduced and better-managed liabilities; Strengthened management of public resources at central and local levels, and Strengthened public administration regulatory and oversight role. Pillar II. Improving Competitiveness and the Investment Climate for Private Sector-Led Growth, through improved business climate and improved access to and quality of key economic infrastructure services. Pillar III. Strengthening Human Capital and Social Inclusion through better positioning of the education and TVET sectors to meet the needs of the labor market and improved targeting of public expenditures and specific programs. IFC did not participate in the CPS design or support, which explains why this is not a World Bank Group CPS, although IFC supported Pillar II through specific investments and advisory services. Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 4. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The GPRSP II is a country owned strategy that reflects the key priorities for Cape Verde and addresses the key obstacles that needed to be overcome to sustain growth and poverty reduction. The Bank’s CPS was fully aligned with it and therefore responsive to the challenges. Mid-way through the CPS period there was a change in government that brought to power a multiparty coalition. This political change seems to have led to some discontinuity of priorities and their sequencing, and some delays in implementation as reflected in components and targets that were dropped or not achieved during the CPS period. The Bank revisited the CPS implementation mid-course and made some adjustments to progress indicators as reflected in the CPSPR, but the core support, in the form of budget support remained. Important partners included the EU, the AFDB, and Portugal, who with the Bank in a coordination role, came together as a Joint Budget Support group under the Planning Department. 5. Relevance of Design. The proposed Bank interventions contained in the CPS were thematically well linked to the GPRSP II. They were highly relevant in principle as the planned interventions targeted needed actions to address real major constraints. Most of the indicators chosen to assess progress were also relevant, but there were exceptions. Some exceptions have to do with a For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group reliance on process and input indicators (means to ends) rather than outcomes, and this missing link led in some cases to non-achievement. As mentioned, much of the core funding support was in the form of budget support, and competing priorities for limited funds left some interventions underfinanced (details in the Pillar discussion). Another major assumption was public sector capacity to implement. There were objectives that relied exclusively on AAA and not on funding, and not much was accomplished as a result. For example, the delivery of workshops and training should not have been assumed to lead directly to results, yet that was implicit. The CPSCR recognizes this issue and has flagged it for the next CPS. Other important interventions depended heavily on bilateral partner support, and this was not always continuously available. 6. Strength of the Results Framework. The results framework (Annex Table 1) included 37 indicators. Though this is not excessive, it provided a diffused implementation focus. Some indicators were grouped under a single major objective, for example, business climate and economic infrastructure under Pillar II, and the chain of causality between specific interventions and results across a large number of different areas and the main objectives was sometimes weak. The results framework also lists major credits, loans, TA, and AAA, as supporting broad CPS objectives. 7. Risk Identification and Mitigation. The CPS design was geared towards addressing central problems affecting the pace of growth and development of the country. The CPS supported an ambitious set of measures, many of which dealt with binding constraints, such as lack of capacity, transparency, and accountability. The CPS recognized that several of the actions to be taken were subject to risk. It is unfortunate however that an assessment of risks is one of the weakest parts of the supervision process, as reflected in ISRs for the operations included in the CPS, which tend to minimize their importance. With the benefit of hindsight the Bank could have used the CPSPR to revisit the likelihood of specific outcomes more effectively. Such a review would have enabled modification of the indicators and targets more in accordance to observed public sector capacity constraints, fiduciary concerns, and funding availability, particularly in the light of relatively high country indebtedness. Overview of CAS/CPS Implementation: Lending and Investments: 8. Eight loans and credits were approved during the CPS period; a Partial Risk Guarantee that was later dropped due to an alternative source of funding. The total funding approved during the period adds up to $121 million, not counting a $19 million Transport Sector Reform loan that was approved after the CPS period. Another three loans for $35.5 million approved earlier were in implementation during the CPS period. Of the eight loans approved during the CPS period, four were PRSCs for $10 million each that formed the core of the budget support provided by the Bank. An Energy Support project for $53.5 million stands out as the largest component of the lending program. All these loans were aligned with the core pillars of the Bank strategy. As mentioned earlier, there have been delays in implementation, and seven loans were still ongoing at the end of the CPS period, with consequent delays in delivering the outcomes sought by the strategy. In addition to Bank loans, $5.9 million of Trust Fund support had been approved prior to the CPS period and was completed during the CPS period. The largest of the TFs was funded by GEF for an Energy and Water Sector Investment Loan. 9. Annex Table 7 provides comparative information of portfolio performance for twelve operations implemented during the CPS period. It shows that half way through the CPS period, a relatively large loan was at risk. Six operations closed during the period. IEG reviewed three operations and judged all three to have moderate risk of not delivering on their development outcomes. The latest ISRs for active operations shows that operations are performing moderately satisfactory on both development outcomes and implementation progress. These ISRs, however, pay relatively scant attention to risk of not achieving development outcomes. There is not a significant difference between IEG and counterpart ICR ratings. There is no performance information on the TF. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group 10. IFC was not involved in the CPS design or planned support though it provided investment and advisory services to improve access to microfinance and telecommunications, key components of improving the business climate under Pillar II of the CPS. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 11. Table 3 lists four reports as a result of ESW done during the CPS period. Three of these pieces on poverty, labor markets, and debt management, informed interventions in Pillars I and II and the fourth piece, the education sector review, informed Pillar III. The CPS has a limited discussion of the role of these inputs, and there are no performance assessments that shed a light on their effects. In addition, there are other pieces of AAA that are not acknowledged in the CPS Tables. Among these are an FSAP carried out in FY09, and Policy Notes in FY10. The CPS has references to a number of TA supported studies/services but none of these seem to have come to fruition and are not listed in the Bank’s Operations Portal as having been active. The CPS also mentions Dutch support for education, which was terminated, and Japanese support for justice systems, but offers no evidence of achievements. Finally, in the middle of the CPS period, the PPIAF delivered support to strengthen the regulatory environment for Private Public Partnerships in the infrastructure sectors particularly in energy, but the CPS offers no direct link to what was accomplished. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 12. Even though foreign aid declined during the CPS period a large number of bilateral and multilateral partners remained active in the country. Already mentioned is the all-important role of the budget support group, a key instrument in the implementation of the GPRSP II. The EU and the AFDB accounted for a larger percentage of total budget support than the Bank. Other key development partners were the Dutch in technical and vocational education, and the Japan Social Development Fund in targeting vulnerable populations. There were other very important bilateral partners in development, among which Portugal contributed about two-thirds of all OECD countries support to Cape Verde during the CPS period. Table 10 provides the details. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 13. There are only a limited number of projects that were closed and evaluated during this CAS period, including a health project that dealt with HIV/AIDS and an energy-water sector investment loan that supported power and water sectors reforms and an enhancement of the sanitation and waste water reuse system. Attention to environmental standards in the health sector is notable. There was full environmental compliance - with the development of a medical waste management framework that is considered a best practice in the region. In the water sector however, weak monitoring by the Bank and client resulted in lack of compliance with the WB safeguards. Unresolved environmental issues include lack of safe water and sludge disposal that risks causing harm to human health and that poses environmental risks. There were no resettlement or other social risks identified. Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar I: Promoting Good Governance and Public Sector Capacity 14. The objectives of Pillar I were to: 1. Reduce and better-manage liabilities, 2. Strengthen management of public resources at central and local levels, and 3. Strengthen public administration regulatory and oversight role. 15. Objective/Outcome #1. Reduced and better-managed liabilities. This objective was pursued through a) clearing the stock of government arrears and not accumulating new arrears and b) implementing ELECTRA suppliers’ arrears clearance plan adopted in 2009. This objective was central to the government reform component of the growth and poverty reduction strategy. The outcome indicators were relevant and clearly linked to the objectives. The CPS results framework asserts that these two outcomes have been achieved during the CPS period, though no additional data is provided that supports this contention. With regards to ELECTRA’s arrears, a plan was adopted in 2009 and a new action plan was being prepared in 2012. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group 16. This outcome was supported by the implementation of the PRSC IV-VII series and the TA on debt management. The progress of this outcome was closely monitored during the generally satisfactory implementation of these credits as reflected in their respective ISRs. It should also be noted that an ICR review completed in June 2013 rated performance of these credits moderately satisfactory across the board. IEG rates this objective as Achieved. 17. Objective/Outcome #2. Strengthened management of public resources at central and local levels. This objective was pursued by requiring a) all municipal governments to produce timely accounts as a result of generalization of the Municipal Information System (SIM); b) increase from three to twelve in the number of municipalities using SIM; c) closely aligning budgeted expenditures to the GPRSP and MTEF; and d) an increase to 100 percent in the number of government units accessing and effectively using the Integrated Budget and Financial Management System (SIGOF). These actions were directly linked to the main outcome sought and the indicators were generally the right ones to determine progress. The CPS results framework shows that all four indicators were achieved or exceeded. 18. The PRSC IV-VII credits and a Public Investment Program TA supported the outcome sought. While the PRSCs provided financial support for implementation, and their achievements have already been mentioned above, the non-lending TA completed in 2013 appears to have been instrumental in informing country policy and strategy in developing a public investment program, strengthening government capacity and client and partner engagement. A detailed Completion Summary shows that all objectives of this TA were fully achieved and that the lessons learned helped build crucially needed country ownership. IEG concurs with CPSCR that this outcome was achieved. 19. Objective/Outcome #3. Strengthened public administration regulatory and oversight role. Achievement of this objective was pursued through six interrelated actions, including: a) reducing the delays in budget execution and auditing of State accounts from three to two years; b) timely submission and audit of State account; c) fully operationalizing the national M&E system in the MOF; d) integrating all output indicators into the national M&E system; e) using updated indicators in planning and monitoring public programs; and f) bring up-to-date tourism, transport and water and sanitation progress indicators. These actions were specific and realistic in supporting the main aim of strengthening the public administration. The CPS results framework shows that progress was made. However, not all indicators were achieved, due to lack of funding in some cases. The integration of all indicators into the national M&E system, which was envisaged in the CPS, was dropped. The unmet indicators will continue to be pursued in the M&E system that is being put in place for the GPRSP III. 20. The PRSC series and a Statistical Capacity Building TF supported the above actions. The PRSCs provided financial support but not in sufficient scale to make progress in all areas. As mentioned, lack of financing led to a dropping of actions in support of the implementation and operationalization of the national M&E system, and delays in developing indicators for key infrastructure sectors. The Statistical Capacity Building TF also had problems including financing, procurement, and other delays and only after this CPS period some steps seem to have been agreed to and this TF is now to be concluded in FY15. So progress towards achieving the main objective was only Partially achieved. 21. IEG rates the outcome of Bank support under Pillar I as Satisfactory. During the CPS period there were important achievements in government management of its liabilities, management of its budget, and strengthening public administration, but achievements fell short in strengthening the M&E system of the government that was to help lend oversight of the public investment program. The CPSCR recognizes that there is more to be done and intends to continue to address the pending issues in the next CPS. Pillar II: Improving Competitiveness and the Investment Climate for Private Sector-led Growth 22. The objectives of Pillar II were to: 1. Improve the business climate, and 2. Improve access to and quality of key economic infrastructure services. 23. Objective/Outcome #1. An improved business climate. This objective was supported through five actions, including: a) an improvement in the “Doing Business” country ranking; b) make For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group more services available to residents and investors (Citizen House); c) improve access to microfinance and telecommunications; d) approve a Tourism Master Plan with local content; and e) increase FDI in tourism in line with the Tourism Plan. These aims were directly linked to a core component of the GPRSP II, that is, to improve competitiveness and enhance private investment. Given the importance of low transactions costs for business and of the tourism sector for the country’s overall growth, the indicators were well chosen. Indeed, the first four indicators were achieved according to the CPSCR, and the fifth indicator regarding FDI was not achieved. 24. According to the CPSCR the above set of actions were primarily funded by PRSC V and VI. PRSC V supported private sector and competitive advantage, and PRSC VI supported the investment climate improvements. PRSC V was rated satisfactory with respect to development objectives achievements in its ISR, and PRSC VI was rated moderately satisfactory. An ICR Review rated all three PRSC operations as moderately satisfactory in aggregate on all counts. 25. A fairly sizable Growth and Competitiveness project also provided support for investment climate improvements including tax and legal reforms, lowering administrative barriers, improving the supply chain, aiding divestiture, and other measures to aid the private sector, all of which were deemed as satisfactory in the completion memoranda and in its ICR. An SME capacity building and economic governance project that was assessed as satisfactory supported the microfinance and telecom actions; the achievement of others indicators was pursued through IFC investments. On the tourism indicators the CPSCR shows a mixed result reflecting the fact that none of the SME project indicators were fully met, and in the case of FDI, the indicator was not achieved. In sum, IEG rates this objective as Mostly achieved. 26. Objective/Outcome #2. Improved access to and quality of key economic infrastructure services. The objective was supported through a broad set of actions in four key sectors: electricity, roads, air transport, and fisheries. Improving economic infrastructure was one of the pillars of the GPRS II and the CPS was fully aligned in supporting this objective. Eleven indicators were defined in the CPS results framework to assess progress. The indicators were relevant but some were too ambitious to be achieved during the CPS period, particularly in light of relatively weak institutional capacity. Of the five indicators for the electricity sector, according to the CPSCR, two indicators tracking increases in generation capacity were achieved; two indicators addressing the financial viability of the electricity company and reducing electricity losses were not achieved; and installing wind energy capacity was partially achieved. Regarding roads, three indicators targeting improvements in maintenance were pursued, of which two focusing on maintenance coverage and quality of roads were not achieved, while setting up a maintenance fund was achieved. The plan to strengthen Cape Verde Airlines was not prepared. And, two indicators targeting improvements in alternative livelihood of artisanal fishermen, and increases in net returns of fishing, were Partially achieved. 27. The above broad objective was packaged into support for four sectors. Progress on the indicators set for the electricity sector were funded by a relatively large Recovery and Reform of the Electricity Sector loan that was deemed satisfactory on its ICR, though the ICR recognizes the shortfalls in the areas mentioned above. The roads sector support that had begun before this CPS received an Additional Financing (AF) loan and continued to receive further support after the CPS period. There has been no ISR or ICR for the funding received during the CPS period, but the ISR for the loan approved after the CPS shows satisfactory performance. AAA supported the airline strengthening but as mentioned it didn’t lead to concrete action. The initiatives in fisheries were funded as part of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Project who’s latest ISR indicates moderately satisfactory performance. The CPSCR questions the wisdom and practicality of packaging so many disparate efforts under one Pillar objective backed up by very different types of funding; IEG concurs with this conclusion. Taking all information into consideration and that only three of the indicators under this objective were unambiguously achieved IEG rates achievement of this objective a Partially Achieved. 28. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Pillar II as moderately unsatisfactory. While there is little doubt that the actions taken within the CPS to support Cape Verde’s GPRS II were the right ones, these were also complex given the available capacity and were also underfunded. There were achievements in improving the business climate, but the key infrastructure enabling environment For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group actions did not materialize in sufficient scale. Reality on the ground could not match expectations and a number of key actions taken did not help achieve the desired objectives. Pillar III: Strengthening Human Capital and Social Inclusion 29. The objectives of this Pillar III were to: 1. Better position the education and technical and vocational education sectors to meet the needs of the labor market; and 2. Improve the targeting of public expenditures and specific programs. 30. Objective/Outcome #1. Better positioning of the education and TVET sectors to meet the needs of the labor market. This objective is consistent with the GPRSP II and central to meeting other labor market objectives necessary to improve the business climate. According to the CPS, achieving this objective entailed increasing technical school enrollment; complete labor demand studies including estimating technical and vocational training needs, and increases in the number of vocational school trainees. There was progress in technical school enrollments but the CPS target was not met. The number of vocational school trainees increased temporarily but then dropped substantially below target. The labor market studies were completed. 31. Pursuing this objective was funded by general budget support provided partly in the PRSCs and by Bank AAA. According to the results framework, a labor market and skills assessment and a higher education AAA were the main instruments used to pursue the actions. There is no performance information available on these pieces of AAA, but the fact that the substantive targets were not met shows a lack of thrust behind this effort. In this regard, the CPS observes that what transpired was not attributable to the Bank and that the achievement of the objective could have been strengthened through an investment project(s). IEG considers the objective partially achieved. 32. Objective/Outcome #2. Improved targeting of public expenditures and specific programs. Addressing social inclusion is an important input to improve social cohesion, and both are part of the GPRS II. This objective of the CPS is in principle aligned with these aims. But, while the specific indicators appear relevant at first, they seem to be one-step removed from addressing the issue directly, and some of the actions were not pursued. Of these, the potentially most important was to ensure that the evaluation of public investments take account of poverty and social impacts. This was not achieved. Making legal advice available to vulnerable groups while a worthwhile pursuit was addressed through workshops, training, and establishing additional centers, but the CPSCR does not address whether the vulnerable were helped and, if so, to what extent. Implementing household surveys was also not accomplished. IEG considers that this objective was not achieved. The CPS RF mentions that this is an area for follow up. 33. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Pillar III as Unsatisfactory. The more important actions underpinning progress in meeting the main objective were not completed or not achieved. There were some actions that were implemented but there is no evidence that these produced any results. Pillar III was not accorded the funding and follow-up priority of other actions under the CPS. Objectives CPSCR Rating IEG Rating Pillar I: Promoting Good Governance and Satisfactory Satisfactory Public Sector Capacity Objective 1: Reduce and better manage liabilities Achieved Achieved Objective 2: Strengthen management of public Achieved Achieved resources at central and local levels Objective 3: Strengthen public administration Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved regulatory and oversight role Pillar II: Improving Competitiveness and the Moderately Moderately Investment Climate for Private Sector-led Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory Growth Objective 1: Improve the business climate Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group Objective 2: Improve access to and quality of key Partially Achieved Partially Achieved economic infrastructure services Pillar III: Strengthening Human Capital and Moderately Unsatisfactory Social Inclusion Unsatisfactory Objective 1: Better positioning of the education and TVET sectors to meet the needs of the labor Partially Achieved Partially Achieved market Objective 2: Improved targeting of public Partially Achieved Not Achieved expenditures and specific programs 4. Overall IEG Assessment CPSCR Rating IEG Rating Overall Outcome: Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory IBRD/IDA Performance: Fair Fair Overall outcome: 34. IEG rates the overall outcome of Bank support as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Specifically, IEG has carefully considered the achievements based on the record as reported in the CPSCR and the various evaluations and documents available for the different credits, loans, TAs and AAA. There is no difference with the CPSCR rating of Moderately Unsatisfactory. Ratings are based on a careful analysis of the outcomes achieved under the various objectives and arriving at marginally different conclusions on three objectives after weighing the evidence provided. In this three instances the different ratings are an issue of degree of achievement rather any more fundamental disagreement. 35. Regarding Pillar I, during the CPS period there were important achievements in government management of its liabilities, management of its budget, and strengthening public administration, but achievements fell short in implementation of the M&E system for the public investment program. The CPSCR recognizes that there is more to be done and intends to continue to address the pending issues in the next CPS. With respect to Pillar II, there were achievements in improving the business climate, but the infrastructure enabling environment actions did not materialize in sufficient scale. Regarding Pillar III, the country made progress in strengthening technical and vocational education and training (TVET) to meet labor market needs, but Bank’s support, which was provided mainly through analytical work and general budget support, contributed little to this outcome. There was limited achievement in improving the targeting of public expenditures and social programs. IBRD/IDA Performance: 36. IEG rates WBG performance as Fair. The CPSCR rates Bank performance as moderately satisfactory (using an older rating scale). There is however a slight difference in the two qualitative measures: there is agreement in that the Bank's CPS was well aligned with the country's own strategy as reflected in the GPRS II, but that there was often a weak link between the results indicators and the actions taken. IEG concludes that follow up was also not as proactive as the CPSCR argues and adjustment to indicators during the CPSPR not enough to correct a shortfall in accomplishments at CPS completion. This also coincided with a mid-CPS period change in government with the consequent inevitable discontinuities on one hand, and missed opportunities to more substantively revisit the objectives and outcomes sought, on the other. So, strength was in designing the strategic alignment and the choice of interventions; the weakness was the unclear connection between the outcomes, indicators and the sources and levels of funding. This lack of clarity may have been responsible for underfunding certain activities, not following up as closely as needed during the period, and ultimately not fully achieving some of the objectives. There were important global enabling For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group environment disruptions at the time of the CPS and during the CPS period that should have merited much closer attention. 5. Assessment of CPS Completion Report 37. The CPSCR gives a concise portrait of how the CPS was formulated, the context, and its implementation. While frank, it gives an optimistic account of accomplishments, some of which fell short of the original targets as noted in the Pillars’ discussion. It must be noted that the original draft CPSCR given to IEG for review was dated April 2013 and the final CPSCR completed in August 2014 includes few substantive changes and adds marginally on actions taken since the end of FY12. 38. The CPSCR is consistent with the CPSPR and their results frameworks are practically the same. CPS objectives are the basis for the results framework and often the results framework places emphasis on process and inputs rather than outcomes. Important indicators are input oriented, or means to an end, and not results indicators. For example, number of municipalities audited (rather than the results of the audits), more services added (rather what services and who received them?), studies carried out (to what end?), number of legal centers (who was helped and how?), etc. The results framework in the CPSCR often does not provide a clear link between the Bank’s funding and advisory services and the actions taken, but nevertheless provides a basis to assess whether results were likely achieved during the CPS period. In some cases, there is lack of evidence to support the self-ratings, and the CPS observes that attribution to the Bank’s contribution is sometimes not possible, as the contribution of other development partners and the government also played a central role. The CPS design is well covered and broadly judged to be in line with country strategy and hence satisfactory, though there is sometimes a weak discussion of the challenges of its implementation. Indeed, the CPS observes that there were some fiduciary issues – procurement and financial management - that presented problems and forced delays during implementation. The CPSCR acknowledges that there were also general public sector capacity constraints that slowed implementation. 6. Findings and Lessons 39. The CPSCR draws a number of lessons to be heeded in the next CPS. These lessons include: a) the results matrix needs to be aligned only with outcomes of projects in the portfolio, and not with outcomes dependent on external factors; b) the Bank could assist Cape Verde in facilitating South-South exchanges on sector reforms and on the provision of guidance to low-income countries; and c) stronger institutional capacity building will be necessary to strengthen the sector ministries, particularly in the collection, evaluation, and dissemination of the data needed to monitor their projects and programs. IEG generally concurs with these lessons. In addition, IEG suggests that it is important for the next CPS Results Framework to ensure stronger links between objectives, outcomes, and resources deployed. The causal chain between these was often difficult to identify weakening both implementation and accountability. Finally, IEG finds that the value of a candid assessment of risk to development outcomes during the Implementation Status Report and CPS Progress Report processes could enable mid-course correction and provide more solid ground to assess the likelihood and sustainability of achievements. Annexes CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CPS Objectives for Cape Verde FY09-FY12 Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending, FY09-12 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Cape Verde, FY09 - FY13 Annex Table 4: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY09-13 (in US$ million) Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Annex Table 6: Project Ratings for Cape Verde and Comparators, FY09-13 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Cape Verde and comparators, FY09-13 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio* for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Annex Table 12: Millennium Development Goals Annexes CPSCR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CPS Objectives for Cape Verde FY09-FY12 CPS FY09-FY12: Pillar I Actual Results Promoting Good Governance and Public Sector Comments (as of current month/year) Capacity 1. Reduced and better managed liabilities Outstanding stock of The Government has completed the clearance Source: CPSCR government arrears cleared and of outstanding arrears recognized in 2005 at no new arrears accumulated. the end of the first CPS. Effective implementation of A new reform agenda based on PEMFAR 2012 Source: CPSCR Electra’s suppliers’ arrears was adopted, and the Government is preparing clearance plan, following its an action plan for PFM reform. adoption in 2009 2. Strengthened management of public resources at central and local levels All municipal governments The Court of Auditors reported that 14 Source: CPSCR produce timely accounts as a municipalities were audited in 2011. result of generalization of the Municipal Information System (SIM) Number of municipalities using The indicator was revised to refer only to the Source: CPSCR SIM and producing timely use of SIM, not the production of timely accounts increases from 3 in accounts. The number of municipalities using 2008 to 12 in 2010 the SIM rose from 3 in 2008 to 18 as of June 2010 Budgeted expenditures are The public investment portfolio was closely Source: CPSCR closely aligned with the GPRSP aligned with the five pillars of the GPRSP II and and MTEF supported by the MTEF. Percentage of government Achieved according to CPSCR No Data available budget units with SIGOF access Major and effective utilization Outcome increases from 80% to 100% Measures 3. Strengthened public administration regulatory and oversight role Timeliness of audits of State The number of years between budget execution Source: CPSCR accounts improved and completion of audits was 2 years by 2011. 2008 State accounts audited in The timely submission of the State’s Annual Source: CPSCR 2010 General Accounts and the external audits by the Court of Accounts were achieved under the PRSC programmatic series. Fully operational national M&E Platform linking INE database with M&E system Source: CPSCR system in Ministry of Finance is not fully operational as it is not fed with input indicators from other parts of the administration All active projects and programs As of 2010, 67% of the annual budget has gone Source: CPSCR output indicators are integrated to programs integrated into the national M&E in a national M&E system system, up from zero in 2008. The indicator ‘percentage of the annual budget allocated to the integration of programs into the national M&E system’ was dropped in PRSC VI. Use of updated indicators by The national M&E system includes all Source: CPSCR Government in planning and investments in the public investment program. monitoring programs GPRSP III will include updated indicators to monitor the public investment portfolio. Up-to-date indicators on The 2010 Census included monitored data on Source: CPSCR tourism, transport, water and water and sanitation. However, lack of funding sanitation impeded the availability of 2012 data on water and sanitation For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-FY12: Pillar II Actual Results Improving Competitiveness and the Investment Comments (as of current month/year) Climate for Private Sector-Led Growth 1. An improved business climate Doing Business ranking Doing Business 2014 rank is 121 and an Source: CPSCR and Doing improved from 143 in 2008 to increase from DB 2013 at 128. Business data under 132 in 2012 More services added to the This indicator was achieved with the addition of Source: CPSCR Citizen House bill and tax payment services to business licenses and birth, marriage and death certificates. Improved access to Access to cellphones and broadband rose Source: CPSCR microfinance and 123% and 184 percent, respectively, during telecommunications 2007-09. The indicator had been revised at CPSPR to improved access to business development services for SMEs, and to telecommunications. At the end of the CPS, 150 SMEs had improved access to business development services Increased FDI in tourism in line Baseline indicator was 0.427 in 2012 with a Source: CPSCR with master plan target of 0.405 for 2014. Although the level of FDI increased, as of April 30, 2012 there was no progress from the baseline. Tourism master plan with local National Tourism Plan was adopted by Council Source: CPSCR content approved of Ministers in 2009. 2. Improved access to and quality of key economic infrastructure services Generation capacity increased The generation capacity was 73.9MW in 2008 Source: CPSCR with larger share made up of and 116MW in 2012, which is a 57% increase. renewable energy The share of renewable energy generated was 16% in 2012 Major Generation capacity in MW Heavy fuel oil generation capacity was above Source: CPSCR Outcome increases from 73.9 in 2008 to 30MW in 2012. Measures 140 in 2012 (2010 benchmark:100) Share of renewable energy The share of renewable energy generated was Source: CPSCR increases from 3% in 2008 to 16% in 2012 18% in 2012 (2010 benchmark: 9%) Financial viability of Electra The exact value for 2012 is not available, but it Source: CPSCR restored is clear that the target was not met by the end of the CPS period, and Electra remains financially dependent on Government support. 28MW of wind energy installed The installed and functioning wind energy generation capacity was 27MW at the end of 2012 from about 3MW in 2008. This indicator was not met during the CPS period. Technical and nontechnical The technical and non-technical losses stood at Source: CPSCR losses decline from 30% toward 27.8% in 2012. This indicator was not achieved less than 20% in 2012 (2010 benchmark: 24%) Debt service coverage ratio from 0.3 in 2008 to over 1.4 in 2012 Quality of the road network In the ISR, baseline is 41%; target is 50% for Source: CPSCR improved by increasing the 2013). There is a discrepancy between the proportion of roads rated fair to baseline and target values in the CPS and in in good condition by 14% the project documents. As of November 2011, (baseline: 41%; target: 55%) the value of the indicator was 41%. Percentage of road network with 44% of the road network was covered by a Source: CPSCR maintenance increases from performance-based maintenance contract that 35% to 50% began in 2010 and expired in December 2012 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Road maintenance financing A road maintenance fund estimated at Escudos Source: CPSCR mechanism implemented 500 million has been established. This indicator was achieved. Action plan to strengthen No action plan to strengthen TACV was Transportes Aéreos de Cabo adopted during the CPS. Hence this indicator Verde (Cabo Verde Airlines) was not achieved during the CPS period. (TACV) adopted and under implementation Value-per-unit of fishing effort in On track in relation to the projections Source: CPSCR targeted fisheries increased by established under the West Africa Regional 10% from base of Fisheries Program 37kg/motorized vessel for artisanal fisheries, and base of 170kg/motorized vessel for artisanal small pelagic fisheries Percentage of small-scale The project faced some institutional delays Source: CPSCR fishers supported to undertake during the first year but is now on track. The alternative livelihoods in value was 6% in 2012 (34 out of a total of 564 overexploited fisheries fishermen in the two co-management pilot sites increases from base of 0% to a of Sal and Maio), This falls short of the 10% target of 10% envisioned at the CPS design but is aligned with the West Africa CPS FY09-FY12: Pillar III Actual Results Strengthening Human Capital and Social Comments (as of current month/year) Inclusion 1. Better positioning of education and TVET sectors for labor market needs Percentage of secondary school In 2011, 15% of secondary school pupils of Source: CPSCR pupils of third cycle proceeding third cycle proceeded to technical school. The to technical school increased value for 2012 was not available from base of 13.8% in 2008 to 14.1% in 2012 Studies conducted to estimate Four studies conducted in 2009 Source: CPSCR future labor demand and TVET training needs in various sectors Increase in number of vocational number of vocational trainees was 6,000 in Source: CPSCR trainees from current base of 2010 and 1,500 in 2012 This indicator was not 1,850 in 2008 achieved 2. Improved targeting of public expenditures and specific programs Major New generation of social Source: CPSCR Outcome programs articulated, tested and Measures ready for implementation Implementation of pilot program Source: CPSCR on CCT to improve the transition from primary level to secondary in the education system Implementation of household The latest household living standards surveys Source: CPSCR living standards surveys for for poverty indicators by INE were produced in poverty indicators 2007. This indicator was not achieved Access to basic legal advice in This indicator was met via legal literacy training Source: CPSCR the most pressing legal issues for communities and community leaders, and is increased for the most continuing via legal counseling by trained vulnerable groups paralegals in 11 new legal centers Number of legal centers 11 legal centers were established as of June Source: CPSCR operating increases from 7 in 2009 2008 to 11 in 2010 Annexes CPSCR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending, FY09-12 Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Approved Outcome Project ID Project name Comments FY FY FY Amount Amount Rating Projects planned under CPS FY09-12 P106502 PRSC IV FY09 FY09 FY09 10 10 IEG: S P113306 DPL 1/PRSC V FY10 FY10 FY10 10 15 LIR: S Transport Sector Support - SIL (Road P087004 FY10 FY11 FY13 5 10 LIR: S Sector Support Project - AF) SME Capacity Building and Economic P107456 FY10 FY10 FY15 3.5 4.5 LIR: S Governance P106063 Regional Fisheries Project* FY10 FY10 FY15 1.5 6 LIR: MS Energy Sector Support Operation (CV- P115464 FY10 FY12 FY17 41 53.5 LIR: S Recovery&Reform of Electricity Sector) There was no need to move forward with the Guarantee as the Government Energy Sector Partial Risk Guarantee FY10 11.8 was able to address the need with other resources. P121812 CV-DPL-PRSC VI FY11 FY11 FY11 10 10 LIR: MS P122669 CV-DPL 3-PRSC VII FY12 FY12 FY13 10 12 LIR: MS This activity was not dropped but materialized after the midterm review as Investment operation to be determined FY12 1.5 the Transform Sector reform Project listed below under non-programed projects. Non-programmed projects P126516 Cape Verde - Transport Sector Reform 2013 2019 19 LIR: S Ongoing projects during the CPS Period P074055 CV-Growth & Compet Pjt (FY03) 2003 2010 11.5 IEG: S P074249 CV-HIV/AIDS APL (FY02) 2002 2009 9 IEG: MS P087004 CV-Road Sec Support Project (FY05) 2005 2013 15 LIR: S Source: Cape Verde CAS and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 08/20/14* LIR: Latest internal rating. U: Unsatisfactory. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. Annexes CPSCR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Cape Verde, FY09 - FY13 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P108470 CV-Poverty Assessment FY09 Report P112981 Cape Verde Labor Market Study FY10 Report P118153 MTDS - Cape Verde FY10 Report P123208 CV Higher Education Sector Review FY12 Report Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type None Source: WB Business Warehouse Table ESW/TA 8.1.4 as of 8/20/14 Annex Table 4: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY09-13 (in US$ million) Approval Closing Approved Project ID Project name TF ID FY FY Amount P090601 Supreme Audit Institution TF 55948 2006 2009 333,000 JSDF TF054211 Access to Legal Services for P095557 TF 54211 2005 2009 909,160 Vulnerable Groups inc. Women P042054 CV-GEF Energy & Water SIL (FY99) TF 22458 1999 2009 4,700,000 Total FY09-13 5,942,160 Source: Client Connection as of 02/11/2014 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Total Exit IEG Risk to DO Proj ID Project Name Evaluated IEG Outcome FY Rating* ($M) 2009 P074249 CV-HIV/AIDS APL (FY02) 15.7 MODERATELY SATISFACTORY MODERATE 2009 P106502 CV-PRSC 4 -DPL 9.5 SATISFACTORY MODERATE 2010 P074055 CV-Growth & Compet Pjt (FY03) 15.7 SATISFACTORY MODERATE Total 40.9 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of as of 08/18/2014 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 6: Project Ratings for Cape Verde and Comparators, FY09-13 RDO % RDO % Total Total Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Exit FY Evaluated Evaluated % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower ($M) (No) Sat ($)* Sat (No)* Cape 40.9 3.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Verde AFR 18,151.8 354.0 68.0 65.3 43.6 39.5 World 107,438.1 1,216.0 82.7 71.5 63.0 52.3 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 8/20/14 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Cape Verde and comparators, FY09-13 Fiscal year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Cape Verde # Proj 2 2 2 3 3 12 # Proj At Risk 0 0 1 0 0 1 % Proj At Risk - - 50.0 - - 8.3 Net Comm Amt 34.5 24.5 34.5 88.0 77.0 258.5 Comm At Risk - - 4.5 - - 4.5 % Commit at Risk - - 13.0 - - 1.7 AFR # Proj 582 597 644 627 567 3,017 # Proj At Risk 150 152 133 127 128 690 % Proj At Risk 25.8 25.5 20.7 20.3 22.6 22.9 Net Comm Amt 29,334.3 35,438.5 38,884.9 40,416.8 42,653.1 186,727.5 Comm At Risk 7,322.0 9,703.1 8,269.7 6,504.6 14,310.8 46,110.2 % Commit at Risk 25.0 27.4 21.3 16.1 33.6 24.7 World # Proj 1,925 1,990 2,059 2,029 1,965 9,968 # Proj At Risk 386 410 382 387 414 1,979 % Proj At Risk 20.1 20.6 18.6 19.1 21.1 19.9 Net Comm Amt 135,706.0 162,975.3 171,755.3 173,706.1 176,206.6 820,349.2 Comm At Risk 20,857.8 28,963.1 23,850.0 24,465.0 40,805.6 138,941.5 % Commit at Risk 15.4 17.8 13.9 14.1 23.2 16.9 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3a.4 as of 08/20/14 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio* for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Fiscal Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Overall Result Cape Verde Disbursement Ratio (%) 66.66 71.62 1.92 23.21 17.23 25.81 Inv Disb in FY 10.03 1.41 0.09 3.33 11.09 25.95 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 15.04 1.97 4.86 14.34 64.36 100.57 AFR Disbursement Ratio (%) 23.83 24.01 19.36 21.39 22.45 21.95 Inv Disb in FY 3,564.24 4,250.96 4,703.06 5,260.34 5,649.34 23,427.94 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 14,954.71 17,704.08 24,298.45 24,594.97 25,165.93 106,718.14 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 26.51 26.91 22.38 20.79 20.60 23.05 Inv Disb in FY 18,062.48 20,928.83 20,933.51 21,048.75 20,509.01 101,482.57 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 68,133.54 77,760.85 93,516.54 101,239.14 99,582.39 440,232.46 Source: BW disbursement ratio table as of 08/20/14 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Cape Verde, FY09-13 FY Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer 2009 18.73 2.61 16.12 - 2.04 14.08 2010 16.07 3.76 12.32 - 2.15 10.17 2011 10.86 3.82 7.04 - 2.21 2012 3.60 3.98 -0.38 - 2.50 -2.88 2013 23.55 4.43 19.12 0.01 2.31 16.79 Total (FY09-FY13) 72.82 18.60 54.22 0.01 11.21 42.99 Source: Client Connection as of 02/10/2014 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid Development 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008-2012 Partners Bilaterals Australia .. 0.20 0.22 0.16 0.58 Austria 2.53 4.36 0.43 0.54 7.86 Belgium 0.38 0.39 0.32 0.25 1.34 Canada 0.68 0.15 0.11 0.01 0.95 Czech Republic .. 0.01 .. 0.01 0.02 Finland .. 0.03 .. .. 0.03 France 3.89 2.97 1.75 4.92 13.53 Germany -0.29 -0.88 0.21 1.10 0.14 Greece .. .. 0.01 0.01 0.02 Italy 3.48 0.12 0.53 0.28 4.41 Japan 17.87 17.40 26.54 12.64 74.45 Luxembourg 14.24 16.87 15.21 18.15 64.47 Netherlands 6.23 4.14 2.39 0.04 12.80 Norway 0.04 .. 0.02 0.09 0.15 Poland .. .. .. .. 0.00 Portugal 53.47 142.13 146.73 168.19 510.52 Slovak Republic .. .. .. .. 0.00 Spain 20.91 21.23 15.46 5.53 63.13 Sweden 0.61 0.10 .. .. 0.71 Switzerland 0.71 0.71 1.19 1.34 3.95 United Kingdom 0.72 0.90 0.03 1.00 2.65 United States 36.41 37.12 9.38 3.84 86.75 DAC Countries, 161.88 247.95 220.53 218.10 848.46 Total Israel .. .. 0.01 .. 0.01 Kuwait (KFAED) -0.44 -0.75 -0.77 0.57 -1.39 Russia .. .. .. 0.05 0.05 Slovenia 0.04 .. 0.03 0.85 0.92 Non-DAC -0.40 -0.75 -0.73 1.47 -0.41 Countries, Total Multilaterals AfDB .. .. .. 0.06 0.06 AfDF 7.22 16.02 -0.67 -2.27 20.30 BADEA 0.40 0.05 -0.63 0.13 -0.05 EU Institutions 22.56 36.93 27.96 9.50 96.95 GEF 0.29 1.78 1.91 1.76 5.74 Global Fund .. 1.97 2.28 0.64 4.89 IDA 0.49 21.70 -1.98 11.76 31.97 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group IFAD 1.54 0.97 0.52 0.86 3.89 IMF (Concessional -1.52 -2.26 -2.73 -2.46 -8.97 Trust Funds) Isl.Dev Bank .. 0.21 .. .. 0.21 Nordic Dev.Fund -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.24 OFID 0.19 1.02 1.78 3.11 6.10 UNAIDS .. .. 0.08 .. 0.08 UNDP 0.72 0.87 0.55 0.64 2.78 UNFPA 1.41 1.18 1.27 1.31 5.17 UNICEF 0.73 0.27 1.23 0.73 2.96 WFP 0.15 0.04 -0.06 .. 0.13 WHO .. .. 0.93 0.85 1.78 Multilateral, Total 34.12 80.69 32.38 26.56 173.75 All Development 198.18 169.56 228.02 328.30 924.06 Partners Total Source: OECD DAC Online database, Table 2a. Destination of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid - Disbursements, as of February 10, 2014 Annexes CPSCR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Cape Verde, FY09-13 Cape Verde Cape Verde SSA World Series Name 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average 2009-2013 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) -1.3 1.5 4.0 1.2 0.5 1.2 3.9 1.9 GDP per capita growth (annual %) -1.5 1.1 3.3 0.4 -0.4 0.6 1.2 0.7 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 5,610.0 5,630.0 5,960.0 6,220.0 6,220.0 5,928.0 3,020.3 13,139.3 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 1,693,360,688.0 1,672,996,739.0 1,750,807,759.0 1,786,287,869.0 1,813,357,760.0 1,743,362,163.0 1,240,693,000,000.0 67,711,360,000,000.0 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 1.0 2.1 4.5 2.5 1.5 2.3 5.8 3.6 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.1 .. 8.4 14.2 3.1 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 18.7 17.6 17.4 17.0 .. 17.7 29.3 26.5 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 72.4 73.9 74.4 74.9 .. 73.9 56.6 70.4 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 38.5 45.2 46.7 35.9 .. 41.6 20.2 21.2 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 17.9 18.5 18.7 18.5 .. 18.4 18.5 21.6 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 27.0 28.9 31.5 34.9 .. 30.6 31.9 29.0 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 52.9 58.0 60.3 52.3 .. 55.9 33.4 28.9 Current account balance (% of GDP) -14.4 -13.4 -16.3 -11.9 .. -14.0 External debt stocks (% of GNI) 46.7 56.3 56.3 67.9 .. 56.8 Total debt service (% of GNI) 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 .. 2.1 1.4 Total reserves in months of imports 4.2 3.8 2.8 3.6 .. 3.6 5.5 13.9 Fiscal Accounts /1 General government revenue (% of GDP) 26.9 27.9 25.6 22.8 23.4 25.3 General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 32.8 38.7 33.3 32.6 31.0 33.7 General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -5.9 -10.7 -7.7 -9.8 -7.7 -8.4 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 64.6 73.0 77.8 89.4 95.0 79.9 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 73.5 73.9 74.2 74.5 .. 74.0 55.6 70.4 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 99.0 99.0 90.0 90.0 .. 94.5 72.3 83.3 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 59.9 61.6 63.3 64.9 .. 62.4 29.2 63.0 Improved water source (% of population with access) 84.7 85.1 85.6 86.0 .. 85.4 50.8 80.6 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 20.8 20.1 19.5 18.9 .. 19.8 67.2 36.6 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 70.3 70.6 75.8 74.7 .. 72.8 18.4 50.8 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 111.1 111.1 111.5 112.0 .. 111.4 99.5 108.4 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 85.3 87.8 90.4 92.7 .. 89.0 40.0 71.4 Population Population, total (Millions) 485,714.0 487,601.0 490,556.0 494,401.0 498,897.0 491,433.8 888,780,195.8 6,963,908,391.2 Population growth (annual %) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 2.7 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 61.0 61.8 62.6 63.3 64.1 62.6 36.4 52.1 Source: WB World Development Indicators as of 7/22/14 /1 WEO Data as of April 2014 Annexes CPSCR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: Millennium Development Goals Indicator Name 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Vulnerable employment, female (% of female 44 employment) Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 58 59 60 61 62 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, 54 53 53 52 52 total (%) GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 86 15-24) Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15- 90 24) Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% 88 89 of cohort) Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant 56 106 86 100 99 age group) Total enrollment, primary (% net) 98 99 96 95 97 School enrollment, primary (% net) 98 99 95 94 97 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national 12 11 11 18 21 parliaments (%) Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 97 96 95 93 91 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment 107 112 120 119 (%) Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) 103 108 129 139 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total 39 nonagricultural employment) Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 79 85 86 92 97 96 12-23 months) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 47 39 31 24 20 19 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000) 62 50 38 29 24 22 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 109 107 99 87 75 women ages 15-19) Births attended by skilled health staff (% of 54 78 total) Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 61 15-49) Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 200 200 170 110 79 100,000 live births) Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) 98 Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) 0 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) 0 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 0 1 1 0 0 0 15-49) Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 175 168 160 153 147 144 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 0 0 0 1 1 Forest area (% of land area) 14 17 20 21 21 Marine protected areas (% of total surface 1 - 1 - 1 1 area) Improved sanitation facilities (% of 37 44 53 62 population with access) Improved water source (% of population 81 83 85 88 with access) Population living in slums (% of urban 70 population) Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of 9 10 11 10 6 exports, excluding workers' remittances) Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 - - 5 17 75 84 people) Telephone lines (per 100 people) 2 5 12 15 15 14 Other GNI per capita, Atlas method (current 900 1,480 1,560 2,330 3,520 3,830 US$) GNI, Atlas method (current US$) 318,322,534 592,726,382 691,595,192 1,114,549,345 1,714,855,171 1,894,111,435 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 48 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 66 67 70 72 74 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 63 15 and above) Population, total 351,960 399,477 442,426 478,651 487,601 494,401 Trade (% of GDP) 73 66 78 93 87 85 Source: World Development Indicators