FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005339 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT CREDIT NUMBER: IDA-57170 ON THE CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 35.6 MILLION (US$50 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF KENYA FOR THE KENYA STATISTICS PROGRAM FOR RESULTS PROGRAM-FOR-RESULTS August 31, 2021 Poverty And Equity Global Practice Eastern and Southern Africa Region Official Use CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective August 31, 2021) Currency Unit = Kenyan Shilling (Ksh) 109.90 Ksh = US$1.00 US$ 1.42 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ARC Advance Release Calendar BAPS Busan Action Plan for Statistics CAPI Computer Assisted Personal Interview COVID-19 Corona Virus Disease 2019 CPI Consumer Price Index CPS Country Partnership Strategy CRA Corruption Risk Assessment CoA Chart of Accounts DLI Disbursement Linked Indicator DLR Disbursement Linked Result DQAF Data Quality Assessment Framework EACC Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission ESSA Environmental and Social Systems Assessment FIS Foreign Investment Survey FM Financial Management FMIS Financial Management Information System FY Fiscal Year GoK Government of Kenya ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association IMF International Monetary Fund IRA Intermediate Results Area ISM Implementation and Support Mission ISO International Standards Organization ISR Implementation Status Reports ISS Integrated Survey of Services KCHS Kenya Continuous Household Survey KeNADA Kenya National Data Archive KIHBS Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KNBS SP Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Strategic Plan KPHC Kenya Population and Housing Census Official Use KSPforR Kenya Statistics Program-for-Results MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MSE Micro and Small Enterprise MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework MTP-3 Third Medium Term Plan NSS National Statistical System PAD Program Appraisal Document PAP Program Action Plan PDO Program Development Objective PforR Program-for-Results PPI Producer Price Index PPRA Public Procurement Regulatory Authority PSC Program Steering Committee SCI Statistical Capacity Indicator SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SIP Survey of Industrial Production STATCAP Statistical Capacity Building Program TA Technical Assistance ToC Theory of change TTL Task Team Leader Vice President: Hafez Ghanem Country Director: Keith Hansen Regional Director: Asad Alam Global Practice Director: Carolina Sanchez-Paramo Practice Manager: Pierella Paci Task Team Leaders: Utz Johann Pape, Nduati Maina Kariuki ICR Author: Sathyanadhan Achath Official Use TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROGRAM CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES.................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL AND THEORY OF CHANGE .................................................................5 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 15 A. RELEVANCE .......................................................................................................................16 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ......................................................................................17 C. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING....................................................................25 D. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ..........................................................................25 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 26 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...................................................................................26 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION .............................................................................26 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 28 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION .......................................................................28 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE .....................................................30 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...........................................................................................................32 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .......................................................................................33 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 35 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK, DISBURSEMENT LINKED INDICATORS, AND PROGRAM ACTION PLAN ...................................................................................................................... 37 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 53 ANNEX 3. PROGRAM EXPENDITURE SUMMARY ................................................................... 55 ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 56 ANNEX 5. BORROWER’S ICR ................................................................................................. 57 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Program ID Program Name Financing Instrument P149718 Kenya Statistics Program for Results Program-for-Results Financing Country IPF Component Kenya No Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, State Department for Republic of Kenya Planning Program Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO To support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy- makers and contribute to strengthening its capacity. Page 1 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Administered Financing 50,000,000 50,000,000 48,776,218 IDA-57170 Total 50,000,000 50,000,000 48,776,218 Non-World Bank Administered Financing Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Program Cost 50,000,000 50,000,000 48,776,218 KEY DATES Program Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing P149718 10-Sep-2015 10-Feb-2016 18-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROGRAM PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 11-Dec-2015 Highly Satisfactory Satisfactory 0 02 13-Jun-2016 Highly Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.81 03 28-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 17.99 Page 2 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 04 04-Jan-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 17.99 05 01-Sep-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 22.59 06 20-Dec-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 27.55 07 25-Jun-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 27.55 08 26-Dec-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 32.42 09 30-Jun-2020 Satisfactory Satisfactory 43.20 10 26-Feb-2021 Satisfactory Satisfactory 43.20 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Public Administration 100 Central Government (Central Agencies) 100 Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Private Sector Development 13 Jobs 13 Job Creation 13 Public Sector Management 63 Data Development and Capacity Building 63 Data production, accessibility and use 63 Social Development and Protection 26 Social Inclusion 13 Other Excluded Groups 13 Social Protection 13 Social Safety Nets 13 ADM STAFF Page 3 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Diarietou Gaye Keith E. Hansen Director: Ana L. Revenga Asad Alam Practice Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Pierella Paci Utz Johann Pape, Nduati Maina Task Team Leader(s): Johan A. Mistiaen Kariuki ICR Contributing Author: Sathyanadhan Achath Page 4 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) I. PROGRAM CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL AND THEORY OF CHANGE Country Context Page 5 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 1. At project appraisal, Kenya faced both, development opportunities and challenges. The conditions for attaining better living standards were increasingly within the reach for the majority of Kenyans. Kenya’s economy had gone from shrinking to growing at nearly 5 percent per year in the twenty years prior to project appraisal. Kenya crossed the lower middle-income country threshold in 2012 and Gross National Income per capita reached US$1,280. However, economic growth was yet to take off at a high, sustained pace required to reduce poverty rates. The peaceful electoral transition, the new Constitution and a track record of sound macroeconomic policy provided a strong foundation for economic development. Kenya’s latent potential to develop rapidly was expected to be sparked by its dynamic private sector, fueled by its expanding skilled youthful population, and leveraged through its pivotal role within East Africa. 2. Poverty, inequality and unemployment remained high, but data was outdated and precise levels were unknown. The population living on less than US$1.25 per day (in 2005 Purchasing Power Parity terms) was last measured as 43 percent in 2005-06. Data to monitor poverty, inequality, and the labor force were lacking and the most recent baseline measures were over a decade old. Infrequently collected data and untimely-disseminated statistics were not conducive to inform policy makers. Filling these data gaps was not just about enabling the measurement of changes in poverty or employment levels, they also informed and catalyzed efforts to reduce poverty and create jobs. 3. Good quality, timely disseminated and publicly accessible official statistics were essential for evidence- based policy making and poverty reduction. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) was mandated to generate and disseminate high-quality and comparable national-level and county-level statistical indicators. These were critical to effectively inform the formulas that governed the resource allocations between county governments and to monitor their performance. Implementation of devolved government structures was generating additional and new data needs. 4. As a growing and emerging lower middle-income economy, the potential economic returns and timing were right for a big-push investment in statistical capacity and results. Since Kenya had crossed the lower middle-income country threshold, macroeconomic data quality, dissemination standards and transparency became increasingly more important to facilitate access to international capital markets and reduce borrowing costs. Better quality economic statistics could substantially lower the cost of raising capital on international markets to finance Kenya’s economic and development policy agenda. Sector Context 5. The Statistics Act 2006 established the KNBS as a semiautonomous government agency. The Constitution of Kenya 2010 defined statistics as a shared function between the national government and the county governments. Accordingly, the Fourth Schedule identified national statistics and data on population, the economy and society as a primary function of national government. Subsequently, the county governments were mandated to carry out county planning and development including statistics in their respective counties. This constitutional provision stipulated that KNBS is the agency responsible for developing statistics, coordinating the National Statistical System (NSS), and setting standards for official government statistics at both national and county levels. 6. Funding for the KNBS, in tandem with the overall statistical capacity in Kenya, declined sharply from 2011. While the KNBS budget needed to fill data gaps had increased, the government budget allocations for the KNBS had been declining since 2011. These funding constraints prevented the KNBS from carrying out critical surveys, including the second Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS)—that were planned during the period. The budget Page 6 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) outlook was equally bleak, but in December 2014 the National Treasury authorized the KNBS to spend an additional KSh 500 million (US$5.5 million) to start implementing the KIHBS 2015/16. Kenya’s deterioration in capacity as measured by Statistical Capacity Indicator (SCI) was due in large part to: (a) lack of funding to finance implementation of a regular program of surveys to monitor poverty and other key socioeconomic indicators; (b) an outdated National Accounts base year; and (c) certain line ministries failing to meet their reporting agreements with international agencies. 7. The 2013-2017 KNBS SP (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Strategic Plan) and this Program-for-Results (PforR) were expected to generate better and more accessible data and statistical products to inform policy making. The Constitution of Kenya devolved authority to 47 elected county governments, which presented both new challenges and opportunities for the KNBS as the overall coordinator of the NSS and custodian of official statistics. While the primary focus of the KNBS SP was to produce official statistics at the national level and enable comparisons between counties, some official statistical programs were to be scaled up to enable capacity building and producing quality data to inform within county comparisons. The 2013-17 KNBS SP was expected to inform policy making including by generating data for: informing the design of the Third Medium Term Plan (MTP-3); updating cash- transfer targeting formulas used by the National Safety Net PforR; and recalibrating the third generation revenue sharing formula developed by the Kenya Commission on Revenue Allocation which governed resources distributed to counties. Page 7 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Theory of Change (Results Chain) 8. The Program Appraisal Document (PAD) did not describe a Theory of Change (ToC) 1. For this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR), the ToC was constructed ex-post using information from the PAD, the project Results Framework and its detailed description. The Program employed the Bank’s PforR methodology to improve data accessibility and inform policy making. This would be done through the availability of important microdata on- line and using the improved data generated to inform key Government of Kenya (GoK) programs and policies. Measuring ‘better’ data generated by the Program was approached through a multi-dimensional lens and included: (i) filling critical source data gaps; (ii) improving the periodicity of poverty monitoring data; (iii) improving the coverage and quality dimensions of real sector economic statistics; and (iv) improving the integrity and methodological soundness of data by adopting internationally recommended data quality standards and assessment frameworks. 9. The following figure captures Program’s theory of change in a concise diagram reflecting the desired direct impacts of the Program. Figure 1: Results Chain Rationale for PforR Support Page 8 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 1As per Operations Policy and Country Services (OPCS) guidelines, including the ToC became mandatory for PADs as of May 2018. The project was approved by the World Bank’s Board of Directors on September 10, 2015. Page 9 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 10. The PforR instrument was selected for several reasons. Kenya had previously benefited from a Statistical Capacity Building Program (STATCAP) 2, the ICR of which recommended the use of a PforR as it would be well suited to finance statistical development in Kenya. The advantages include: (i) the KNBS SP is itself a results-oriented program; (ii) implementation would be facilitated by working through government budget, financial management (FM) and procurement systems; (iii) working through government systems would improve the efficiency of expenditures and be a key factor to institutionalize support for statistics; (iv) a PforR would help build the institutional capacity to administer the entire program; (v) it would facilitate potential scalability of the Program both by drawing in additional government agencies as well as being better suited to draw in financing from multiple development partners; and finally (vi) it would enhance coordination with development partners supporting statistics in Kenya. 2 Kenya - Development of The National Statistical System Project, P085414. Page 10 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Program Development Objectives (PDOs): 11. The PDO was ‘to support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy makers and contribute to the strengthening its capacity’. 12. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators: The following four 3 PDO-Level indicators captured the fundamental goals reflected in the PDO: Table 1: Key Expected Outcome Indicators Indicator Baseline Outcome End Targets (i) KIHBS 2015/16 data used to update proxy- means cash transfer targeting formulas used 1. Inform development Outdated poverty statistics and by the National Safety Net Program-for- strategies, policies and household survey data Results; (ii) benchmark poverty and labor poverty reduction (2005/06) being used to inform force indicators and better real sector programs of the poverty reduction targeting economic data used to inform MTP-3; and (iii) Government of Kenya and resource allocations poverty monitoring statistics used in the third (GoK) revenue sharing formula by the Kenya Commission on Revenue Allocation. (i) KIHBS 2015/16 conducted and progress report produced and made available on-line; Poverty statistics are outdated (ii) updated benchmark (2015/16) poverty 2. Produce regular poverty (2005/06) and insufficient measures produced and disseminated; (iii) monitoring data and capacity to monitor poverty at poverty monitoring data collected by KCHS; statistics least once every three years (iv) the KCHS poverty estimates produced and disseminated; and (v) KIHBS 2020/21 fieldwork started. (i) Foreign Investment Survey (FIS) conducted and report produced and made available on- Insufficient capacity to meet line; (ii) the business register upgraded and 3. Produce better real and Special Data Dissemination updated; (iii) the rebased Consumer Price external sector economic Standard (SDDS) criteria in all Index (CPI) series produced and made data real and external sector data available on-line; (iv) the rebased Producer categories Price Index (PPI) series produced and made available on-line; and (v) Rebased National Accounts produced and report made available. (i) Revised microdata dissemination policy produced, adopted and published; (ii) the MSME survey microdata produced and made Microdata files not available 4. Improve access to official available on-line; (iii) the KIHBS 2015/16 on-line and not freely survey microdata microdata made available on-line; (iv) the obtainable KCHS 1st year microdata made available on- line 4; and (v) the 2nd year microdata made available on-line. Page 11 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 3 A fifth PDO-level indicator, strengthening the capacity of KNBS, was included in ISRs 5 – 10. This indicator was, however, not included in the PAD which serves as the basis for PDO indicators according to the Program-for-Results guidance effective March 2, 2020. 4 The PAD notes that the 1st year of the KCHS was to be conducted in 2017 and the 2nd year in 2018. These were however delayed due to the prolonged electioneering period. As such they are denoted as the 1st and 2nd year of the KCHS respectively. Page 12 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) The Government Program: 13. The direction of KNBS outlined in the Strategic Plan 2013-17 (SP) was informed by in-depth analysis of past and existing challenges facing the organization. Development of statistics was faced with deficiencies arising from surveys and censuses that had not been carried out. As a result, the baseline data for several key indicators of national development were missing or outdated. There was an urgent need to fill these data gaps and update old baselines to inform and monitor economic, social and policy developments. Likewise of concern was the quality of the statistical information produced. The KNBS operated with an inadequate quality assurance framework which constrained the ability to comply with international standards, the fundamental principles of statistics, and the application of modern technology in data processing and sound statistical methodologies. Other challenges included value leakages through inadequate communication and dissemination; systems inefficiencies; and organizational and human resource management gaps. 14. The Government Program was framed around six strategic pillars and aimed at addressing the above challenges. The 2013-17 SP was endorsed by the KNBS Board in December 2014 and was organized around six strategic focus areas: (1) addressing data gaps; (2) improving the quality of statistical processes; (3) improving dissemination of statistics and data access; (4) mainstreaming statistics in ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) and, county governments; (5) strengthening human resource management; and (6) enhancing infrastructure, management and governance. The World Bank’s support to the Government’s Program and Boundaries: 15. The PforR Program supported a subset of the Government’s Program that was considered critical towards achieving the PDO. The PforR Program’s boundaries were determined based on strategic relevance, government demand, technical soundness, the Bank’s comparative advantages, and support provided by other development partners. The subset of the Government’s Program supported by the PforR Program included activities in the following four focus areas: (1) addressing data gaps; (2) improving the quality of statistical processes; (3) improving dissemination of statistics and data access; and (4) enhancing infrastructure, management and governance. These activities were considered instrumental as they focused on delivering the core data and statistics Kenya needed to inform the policy agenda. 16. The Program excluded developing a National Strategy on Development of Statistics (Area 4) and Strengthening Human Resource Management (Area 5). The former consisted of consultation processes that were being supported through other programs and the latter was not yet fully supported by the government. The principal activity under focus Area 5 was the implementation of a new salary structure, which required reclassification of the KNBS by the public service commission. This was beyond the control of the KNBS. This focus area was therefore excluded from the PforR Program. Program Results Areas and Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLIs) Key Expected DLIs Page 13 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 17. The Bank and the government had agreed on targets for seven DLIs against achievement of which the Bank disbursed funds as follows: Table 2: Key Expected DLIs DLI Name Baseline Target Outcome (i) Micro and small enterprises (MSE) survey conducted; report made available on-line; (1) Implement an integrated National Accounts (ii) Establishment Census conducted, report produced program of economic surveys to source data and made available on-line; fill National Accounts source data incomplete and (iii) Integrated Survey of Services (ISS) conducted, report gaps partly outdated produced and available on-line; (iv) Survey of Industrial Production (SIP) conducted, report produced and made available on-line. (i) Design the 2015/16 KIHBS instruments conduct pilot, and start fieldwork by September 2015; (ii) KIHBS 2015/16 fieldwork partly conducted and progress report produced and available on-line (2) Implement an integrated Labor force, (iii) KIHBS 2015/16 poverty report and labor indicators program of household surveys to poverty and other reports produced and made available on-line; fill key poverty, labor and socio- key socioeconomic (iv) 1st year of KCHS fieldwork conducted and quarterly economic data gaps data outdated labor indicators report produced and made available on-line; and (v) 2nd year of KCHS fieldwork conducted and county poverty report produced and made available on-line (i) Publish revised National Accounts with base year updated to 2009; Insufficient (ii) Foreign Investment Survey (FIS) conducted and capacity to meet report produced and available on-line; (3) Produce better real and SDDS criteria in all (iii) Business register upgraded and updated; external sector economic data real and external (iv) Rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) series sector data produced and made available on-line; and categories (v) Rebased Producer Price Index (PPI) series produced and made available on-line. DQAF not compiled (4) Compile IMF Data Quality for any of the (i) DQAF compiled and published for 1-5 Assessment Framework (DQAF) seven macroeconomic datasets. for five macro-economic datasets macroeconomic datasets ARC not used and (5) Develop an Advance Release Economic Surveys (i) Publish an ARC covering 10 data categories of the Calendar (ARC) and scale-up data not digitized and SDDS. coverage not freely available Page 14 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) (i) Launch the Kenya National Data Archive (KeNADA) with microdata from at least 30 surveys; Microdata files not (ii) Revised microdata dissemination policy produced, (6) Improve access to official available on-line adopted and published; survey microdata and not freely (iii) MSE survey microdata made available on-line; obtainable (iv) KIHBS 2015/16 microdata made available on-line; (vi) 1st year of KCHS microdata made available. (vii) 2nd year of KCHS 2018 microdata made available. (i) CRA conducted and endorsed action plan, prepared by KNBS, and fully implemented; (7) Implement the Corruption (ii) Design and operationalize Financial Management Risk Assessment (CRA) action Information System (FMIS) with multidimensional N/A plan and strengthen financial and Chart of Accounts (CoA) to generate key reports; records management systems and (iii) Establish International Standards Organization (ISO) 15489 certified Record Management system. Other Changes 18. No other changes were made. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication for the Original Theory of Change 19. No changes were made to the original Theory of Change. II. OUTCOME Page 15 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) A. RELEVANCE 20. The Relevance of PDO is rated as High: 21. Consistency with the Kenya Country Partnership Strategy (CPS): The PDO was fully aligned with the CPS, 5 which placed strong emphasis on data and statistics in the pursuit of evidence-based policy making for monitoring and evaluating the development impacts of policies and programs. 22. Consistency with the GoK’s MTP-3 6: The GoK prioritized the need to invest in strengthening the KNBS to improve data quality by conducting several surveys and censuses within the MPT-3 period. Both the CPS and the MTP-3 stressed the need to fill data gaps and make relevant statistics available in a timely manner to policy makers and the general public. 23. Consistency with KNBS SP 2018-2022: The PDO is consistent with the KNBS SP 2018-2022 under which the KNBS endeavors to address the increasing demand for data by modifying its key business processes, including identification of data to be collected, the design and administration of statistical surveys, and data dissemination. 24. The 2015/16 KIHBS produced data that was used for in-depth analysis of gender gaps in the 2018 Kenya Poverty and Gender Assessment. These gender disparities were noted as key constraints to equity and inclusiveness in the 2020 Kenya Systematic Country Diagnostic. 25. Consistency with the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development: At the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Sustainable Development Summit, the member states adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets 7. The SDGs have significant data requirements, including comprehensively disaggregated data for assessment of the 232 global SDG indicators. The KNBS therefore endeavors to integrate and actualize the aspirations of the SDGs in its operations. 26. Consistency with the principles advocated by the Busan Action Plan for Statistics (BAPS)8: The PDO is also consistent with the BAPS action plan by supporting the following three principal objectives: (i) Fully integrating statistics in decision making; (ii) Promoting open access to statistics; and (iii) Increasing resources for statistical systems. 27. Consistency with the Statistics Sweden program of technical cooperation with KNBS. Since 2014, Statistics Sweden has been undertaking a program of assistance to improve the technical capacity of KNBS. The Program and Statistics Sweden’s assistance were particularly coordinated in the area of economic statistics. 28. The PDO activities were also guided by the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Data Dissemination Standards Criteria and the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Indicators. 5 Report 88940-V2; The Kenya CPS for FY14-FY18 was discussed by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors on June 4, 2014. The CPS for Kenya FY14–18 was extended to FY20 through a Performance and Learning Review in 2018 and has been further extended under the World Bank Group COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper. 6Third Medium Term Plan 2018 – 2022; Kenya Vision 2030; Page 14; para 2.4. 7 The SDGs are a universal set of goals and indicators that the UN member states are expected to implement to further their development agenda and policies by 2030. 8 BAPS 2011 - Statistics for Transparency, Accountability and Results Page 16 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 29. The Relevance of DLIs is rated as Substantial: The DLIs were based on the KNBS 2013-2017 SP and were organized along four Intermediate Results Areas (IRAs) that provided a logical results chain towards achieving the PDO. Table 3 below provides an overview of the Program indicators at the IRA level and identifies DLIs that were selected based on one or all of the following criteria: (i) to signal and monitor milestones along results chain instrumental to achieve the PDO; (ii) to have a measurable impact on the PDO level results framework indicators; and (iii) be instrumental in addressing capacity constraints. The results chain of first three IRAs were supported by strengthening management capacity, that is implementing an integrated program of economic surveys to fill National Accounts source data gaps (under IRA-1) improving the SDDS requirements met or partially met (under IRA-2) which in turn enabled scaling up data coverage in the Advanced Release Calendar (under IRA-3). Enhancing management capacity (IRA-4) by strengthening governance, procurement and FM systems were cross-cutting measures that complemented the other IRAs and contributed towards achieving the PDO. Table 3: Overview of Program Outcome indicators and linkages to DLIs Program Indicator Type DLI* IRA 1: Data gaps filled and capacity strengthened through the implementation of integrated survey Programs (i) Implement an integrated program of economic surveys to fill National Output, Intermediate X Accounts source data gaps outcome (ii) Improve Overall Statistical Capacity Score (SCI) Intermediate outcome IRA 2: Quality of key official statistical products and processes improved (i) Compile the IMF DQAF for five macro-economic datasets Output X (ii) Proportion of SDDS requirements met or partially met Intermediate outcome IRA 3: Dissemination practices strengthened and access to data improved Output, Intermediate (i) Develop ARC and scale-up data coverage X outcome IRA 4: Management systems strengthened (i) Implement the CRA action plan and strengthen financial management, Process indicator, X filing and procurement systems Intermediate outcome *Checked when the indicator is a DLI. See Annex 1 for detailed overview of the Program’s RF and DLIs. Rating of Overall Relevance 30. The rating of overall relevance is Substantial. The PforR provided clear evidence of the alignment of the PDOs to the current CPS objectives and with Kenya’s medium and long-term development agenda. The Program results framework and the DLIs were built on the KNBS SP foundations and were organized along IRAs that provided a logical results chain towards achieving the PDO. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective or Outcome 31. The Program's efficacy is deemed Substantial. The Program achieved its overall objectives: KNBS’ capacity has been strengthened and it has generated better and more accessible data that is actively being used to inform policy makers. The four outcome indicators have been largely met, with 14 out of 18 of the total targets met. As described below, the achievements were organized by “unpacking” the PDO and assessing each outcome separately. Page 17 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Achievements of PDO-Level Indicators by Results Areas Page 18 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) To support KNBS to generate data to inform policy makers. 32. Inform development strategies, policies and poverty reduction programs of the Government of Kenya: Before the Program, outdated poverty statistics and household survey data, from 2005/06 were being used to inform poverty reduction targeting and resource allocations. With the Program’s support: (i) KIHBS 2015/16 data was used to update proxy-means cash transfer targeting formulas used by the National Safety Net Program-for-Results; (ii) benchmark poverty and labor force indicators and better real sector economic data were used to inform MTP-3; and (iii) the poverty monitoring statistics required for use in the Commission for Revenue Allocation’s third formula have been produced. The formula is still, however, undergoing deliberation in the legislature and thus the final target was not met. The Census of Industrial Production, funded by the Program, was a key component of the 2020 Economic Survey, a report used to inform Members of Parliament on the performance of the economy during the budget-making process. The special chapter in the report highlighted the changing structure of industrial production identified using the updated data. The same report also featured a section on the rebased PPI, also funded by the Program, and it’s updated inflationary trends from a producer’s perspective. Lastly, data produced through funding from the Program has also been useful for academics. Google scholar for example, lists over 200 works that make use of the 2015/16 KIHBS data in topics such as food security, fertility trends and learning inequalities. To support KNBS to generate “better” data. 33. (i) Produce regular poverty monitoring data and statistics: Before the Program, poverty statistics were outdated (last produced in 2005/06) and there was insufficient capacity to monitor poverty at least once every three years. With the Program’s support: (i) KIHBS 2015/16 was conducted and progress report was produced and made available on-line; (ii) updated benchmark (2015/16) poverty measures were produced and disseminated; and (iii) poverty monitoring data was collected by the Kenya Continuous Household Survey (KCHS). Regarding the fourth intermediate target, the dissemination of the KCHS poverty estimates was delayed until after the close of the Program. For the fifth intermediate target 9, due to the prolonged electioneering period in 2017, the start of the survey was delayed, which resulted in the production and dissemination of the KCHS poverty estimates after the end of the project. 10 This delay also resulted in the postponement of the start of the proposed 2020/21 KIHBS to after the end of the Program. 34. (ii) Produce better real and external sector economic data: Before the Program, there was insufficient capacity to meet SDDS criteria in all real and external sector data categories. With the Program’s support: (i) FIS was conducted and report was produced and made available on-line; (ii) the business register was upgraded and updated; (iii) the rebased CPI series was produced and made available on-line; and (iv) the rebased PPI series was produced and made available on-line. Regarding the fifth intermediate target, the rebasing of the National Accounts, was completed; however, its release was delayed until after the end of the Program. To support KNBS to generate “more accessible” data. 35. (i) Improve access to official survey microdata: Before the Program, microdata was not available on-line nor were they freely obtainable. With the Program’s support: (i) the revised microdata dissemination policy was produced, adopted and published; (ii) the MSME survey microdata was produced and made available on-line; (iii) the KIHBS 2015/16 microdata was made available on-line; (iv) the KCHS 1st year microdata; and (v) the 2nd year KCHS microdata were made available on-line. Additionally, prior to the Program according to the STATCAP ICR, census and surveys undertaken by KNBS were launched in hardcopy format. Currently, launches of KNBS products include the same day uploading of digital copies of reports. Page 19 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 9 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2020/21 fieldwork started. 10 As a result, only 80 percent was disbursed against the corresponding DLI. Page 20 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Achievements of Intermediate Results Areas: 36. The Program was structured to deliver results in the following four Intermediate Result Areas: 1. Data gaps filled and capacity strengthened through the integrated survey programs: 37. (i) Implement an integrated program of economic surveys to fill national accounts source data gaps: All four intermediate targets were met. Before the Program, the national accounts source data was incomplete and partly outdated. With the Program’s support, (i) a micro, small and medium enterprises survey was conducted; (ii) an establishment census was conducted, report was produced and made available on-line; (iii) the integrated survey of services was conducted and report was made available on-line; and (iv) the 2018 census of Industrial Production was conducted and report made available on-line. 38. (ii) Improve overall Statistical Capacity Score (SCI): The strengthening in KNBS' institutional capacity with the Program's support is reflected in the increase in the SCI score. This reflects a country's ability to produce and disseminate reliable, relevant and timely statistics in terms of three dimensions: statistical methodology; source data; and periodicity and timeliness. The reported SCI score for Kenya in 2020 was 58 against a target score of 69. It should be noted that the target score included a number of dimensions of the SCI, which the PAD linked to the DLIs that were outside the scope of the Program. Specifically, the PAD noted that SDDS subscription was linked to DLIs; however, the Program supported progress toward SDDS subscription and not subscription itself. Likewise, the PAD links the reporting of child immunization indicators to the Program; however, these are not measured in any survey under the Program. The same is true for the external debt reporting status and the import and export price indices. The Program did, however, support the rebased CPI base year, whose improvement is not noted in the 2020 SCI score. The KSPforR can be assessed as having substantially contributed to improving Kenya’s SCI score (Table 4). Table 4: Reported and Actual SCI Scores for Kenya 2014 & 2020 2014 2014 2020 2020 Indicator - Impact from KSPforR reported reported actual 2020 Overall SCI Score 54 58 61 ⭡ 7 percentage point increase Methodology 40 40 50 ⭡ Special Data Dissemination The Program only supported selected 0 0 0 - Standard actions toward SDDS subscription UNESCO reporting 0 0 0 - - Maintained due to rebasing in 2014 under National accounts base year 10 10 10 ⭤ Disbursement Linked Results (DLR) 3.0 National immunization 0 0 0 - coverage reported to WHO Government finance Continued adherence to consolidated GFS 0 10 10 ⭡ accounting due to GFS DQAF (DLR 4.4) Import and export price 0 0 0 - Not under the scope of the Program indexes Industrial production index 0 0 0 - Balance of payments manual Maintained in part due to BOP DQAF (DLR 10 10 10 ⭤ in use 4.2) Page 21 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Consumer price index base CPI base year adjusted in 2020 under DLR 10 0 10 ⭡ year 3.3. Score should be increased. External debt reporting status 10 10 10 - Not under the scope of the Program Source data 50 60 60 ⭡ Poverty survey 5 5 5 ⭤ Maintained due to 2015/16 KIHBS (DLR 2.2) Population census 10 10 10 - Agricultural census 0 10 10 - Vital registration system 0 0 0 - coverage Health survey 10 5 5 - Periodicity and timeliness 73 73 73 ⭤ Child malnutrition 10 7 7 - Child mortality 10 10 10 - Income poverty 3 3 3 ⭤ Maintained due to 2015/16 KIHBS (DLR 2.2) HIV/AIDS 10 10 10 - Child Immunization 10 10 10 - Not under the scope of the Program Maternal health 7 7 7 - Primary completion 0 7 7 - Maintained due to rebasing in 2014 under Per capita GDP growth 10 10 10 ⭤ DLR 3.0 Access to water 10 10 10 ⭤ Maintained due to 2015/16 KIHBS (DLR 2.2) Gender equality 3 0 0 - 2. Quality of key official statistical products and processes improved: 39. (i) Compile the IMF DQAF for five macro-economic datasets: All five intermediate targets were met. Before the Program, the DQAF was not compiled for any of the seven macro-economic datasets. With the Program’s support a DQAF was compiled and published for five macroeconomic datasets as planned. The Program supported the production of DQAFs for National Accounts, Balance of Payments statistics, Monetary and Financial statistics, Government Finance statistics and the Consumer Price Index. Additionally, the quality of statistics was improved through the peer review of reports. The process of data collection was also improved through the use of Computer Assisted Personal Interviews (CAPI) in household surveys such as the KIHBS 2015/16, the 2016 MSME survey and the 2019 and 2020 KCHS. This had the effect of reducing data entry errors as well as the time taken for data entry. 40. (ii) Proportion of SDDS requirements met/partially met: The intermediate target was fully met. Before the Program, SDDS requirements were only 20 percent met; 52 percent partially met; and 28 percent not met. With the Program’s support, 64 percent of requirements were met, and 36 percent were partially met (Table 5). This change can be attributed to significant improvements in real sector data measurement, through the rebasing of the national accounts, quarterly labor force data and the rebased CPI and PPI. All of these activities were carried out under the Program. Table 5: Progress toward SDDS subscription from 2014 to 2020 Data Category Main Components 2014 Assessment 2020 Assessment 1 Real Sector 1.1 National Accounts (NA) GDP, current and constant prices Partially met [A, C] Met Page 22 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 1.2 National Accounts (NA) Other NA aggregates and sector accounts Partially met [Q] Met 1.3 National Accounts (NA) GDP, current and constant prices Partially met [Q] Met 1.4 National Accounts (NA) Supply Use Tables and rebasing Not Met Met 1.5 Production Index Industrial Production Partially met [Q, T] Partially met [F] 1.6 Labor Force Employment Not met Met 1.7 Labor Force Unemployment Not met Met 1.8 Labor Force Wages and earnings Not met Partially met [F] 1.9 Prices Consumer Price Index (CPI) Partially met [Q] Met 1.10 Prices Producer Price Index (PPI) Partially met [C, F] Partially met [F] 2 Fiscal Sector Government finance 2.1 General Government operations Partially met [A, C] Met statistics Government finance 2.2 Central Government operations Partially met [F, T] Partially met [T] statistics Government finance 2.3 Central Government debt Partially met [A, C] Met statistics 3 Financial Sector Monetary and financial 3.1 Depository Corporations Survey Met Partially met [T] statistics Monetary and financial 3.2 Central Bank Survey Not Met Partially met [T] statistics Monetary and financial 3.3 Interest Rates Met Met statistics Monetary and financial 3.4 Share Price Index Met Met statistics 4 External Sector 4.1 Balance of Payments (BoP) Annual BoP Partially met [A, C] Met 4.2 Balance of Payments (BoP) Quarterly BoP Partially met [A, C] Met 4.3 International reserves International reserves and FC liquidity Partially met [A, C] Met 4.4 Exports and imports Merchandize trade Met Partially met [T] International Investment 4.5 Annual IIP Not met Met Position (IIP) International Investment 4.6 Quarterly IIP Not met Partially met [T] Position (IIP) 4.7 Spot rates Exchange rates Met Met 4.8 External Debt External debt Partially met [C] Partially met [T] Source: Author’s assessment. Note: * If partially met, the SDDS dimensions/criteria not met are indicated in [brackets]: A – accuracy; C – Coverage; F – Frequency; T – Timeliness; Q – Quality. Page 23 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) 3. Dissemination practices strengthened and access to data improved: 41. (i) Develop an Advance Release Calendar (ARC) and scale-up data coverage: The target was fully met. Before the Program, an ARC was not used. Through the Program the KNBS published an ARC covering 10 SDDS 11 data categories. Additionally, a data dissemination policy was developed. All the reports done through the program and survey microdata were uploaded onto the KNBS website. Lastly, all previous Economic Surveys and Statistical Abstracts from 1960 were scanned and uploaded onto the KNBS website. 4. Management systems strengthened: 42. (i) Implement the CRA action plan and strengthen financial and records management systems: The two intermediate targets were met. Using the existing government systems, the Program has designed and operationalized a Financial Management Information System (FMIS). With this, the FMIS is able to produce Program reports as needed. All procurement and financial audits for the program now use the existing government structures. Regarding the completion of the CRA action plan and the certification of the ISO 15489 record management system both DLRs were achieved. 11The 10 SDDS categories covered are Annual National Accounts with GDP at current and constant prices; Quarterly National Accounts with GDP at current and constant prices; the Monthly Consumer Price Index; the Quarterly Producer Price Index; Annual Government Financial statistics, Daily updated interest rates, Daily updated share price index, Annual Balance of Payments statistics, Quarterly Balance of Payments Statistics, and monthly merchandise trade statistics. Page 24 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) C. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 43. The overall outcome is rated as Satisfactory. As highlighted above in Section B, the Program’s relevance continues to be high, both with respect to the government’s and the Bank’s strategic priorities. The efficacy is rated substantial as the Program achieved its overall objectives. While the achievement of four out of the 18 targets is pending, this is considered a minor shortcoming given the Program’s overall achievements. D. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Gender 44. The surveys implemented in the Program facilitated the collection of data disaggregated by gender and other socio-economic characteristics. The 2015/16 KIHBS conducted with the support of the Program produced data used for in-depth analysis of gender gaps in the 2018 Kenya Poverty and Gender Assessment (KPGA). These gender disparities identified in the KPGA were then noted as key constraints to equity and inclusiveness in the 2020 Kenya Systematic Country Diagnostic. Institutional Strengthening 45. The Program led to the strengthening of the governance of KNBS through the implementation of the Corruption Risk Assessment. As part of the Fiduciary Systems Assessment and the integrated risk assessment for the Program, the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) was commissioned to undertake a CRA of KNBS. The CRA recommended 32 actions in the areas of financial management, procurement, internal audit and record management systems. The completion of DLR 7.0 constituted the implementation of these actions. 46. Program Action Plan (PAP) items were designed to improve the financial management and procurement practices of the KNBS. Through the Program, semi-annual audits of the FMIS were ensured with confirmation from the KNBS internal auditor that the system continued to deliver as intended. Through another PAP point the Program confirmed that procurement planning was aligned to the budgeting process by conducting yearly comparisons of the procurement plan and the budget for KNBS. An additional PAP point ensured that a procurement audit was conducted by the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA) with KNBS documenting their compliance with the findings of the audit. Although compliance was noted, this occurred outside the window of six months stated in the PAP. KNBS staff was also trained on the e-waste management practices and the World Bank safeguards policies as part of a PAP item that ensured that all e-waste was disposed of at an approved recycling facility in line with the National Environment Management Authority guidelines. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 47. High quality, timely disseminated and publicly accessible official statistics are considered essential for evidence-based policy making and poverty reduction. Due to the program, the KNBS was able to implement the 2015/16 KIHBS and produce poverty statistics after a ten-year gap. These statistics and the data produced from the survey were used to identify the nature and extent of poverty and inequality as well as its causes and consequences. The poverty gap calculated from the 2015/16 KIHBS has been proposed for use in the third revenue sharing formula from the Commission for Revenue Allocation. This will be used to define the developmental needs of counties as well as economic disparities between counties 12 to disburse revenue from the national government 12 Both criteria are identified under Article 203 of the Constitution of Kenya (2010). Page 25 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) to county governments. The 2018 KPGA also identified detailed policy recommendations for the reduction of poverty and improving shared prosperity using data from the 2015/16 KIHBS. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 48. In the context of weak public sector governance, the Program was designed with sound background analysis and a comprehensive assessment of the government’s commitment. Through the design, implementation and review of the previous Credit (Statistical Capacity Building Program, P085414), the preparation team used lessons learned that had worked. The team also assessed potential risks and mitigation measures; consulted with key MDAs and identified main implementation challenges based on experience from the previous program. The Program was also formulated in consultation with the IMF and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA). 49. The Program supported the national government’s policy priorities. The Program supported a subset of the government’s own program articulated in the KNBS SP (2013-2017). This was consistent with the government’s national development agenda as outlined in the Vision 2030 and the Second Medium Term Plan 2013-2017. The government recognized the need for adequate statistics to measure living standards, education, healthcare, job creation and youth employment among many other indicators. The government also demonstrated their commitment through pledging to finance the Program in the multi-year budget plan. 50. The Program was purposefully designed to support the Government’s Program areas with the highest potential impact. By addressing strategic data gaps, improving the quality of data, and improving dissemination practices, the Program facilitated Kenya’s access to international capital markets and reduced borrowing costs. This was considered highly relevant for a fast-growing middle-income country in need of financing. 51. To ensure that Program’s activities were technically sound, the Program adhered to international best practice and established principles. More specifically, the Program’s activities were guided by the recommendations of the IMF’s SDDS and the World Bank’s SCI. 52. The program did, however, experience an extended preparation phase. The preparation phase of the Program took more than one year, and the Program took five months to become effective after approval. This was mitigated through the use of Year 0 DLRs. These were activities that started before the Program became effective in the knowledge that they could be disbursed against once the program became effective. This ensured minimal deviations from the Government Program. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 53. The prolonged electioneering period13 in 2017 delayed verification-linked missions. The achievement of some of the DLRs was delayed by up to 12 months. The electioneering period delayed the data collection for DLRs 2.3 (and subsequently 2.4) and 3.3. This delay also caused the PDO indicator on the production of regular poverty elections were held in Kenya on August 8, 2017 to elect the President, members of the National Assembly and the Senate. 13 General However, a repeat presidential election was then held on October 26, 2017. Page 26 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) monitoring data not to be met due to the delay in the fieldwork for the KIHBS 2020/21. 54. Delays were experienced as a result of activities related to the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census (KPHC). The Census which was conducted in August 2019 required certain staff to focus solely on the KPHC, thus delaying activities related to the Program. As a result of the delays caused by the census, the task team together with KNBS designed an action plan to ensure that the remaining DLRs were completed in a timely manner. The action plan involved breaking down the remaining DLRs into smaller time-bound tasks required for their completion. Once this was done the task team and KNBS would monitor progress on a bimonthly basis. 55. The independence of the KNBS has been obstructed by recent legislation. The 2019 Statistics (Amendment) Act includes provisions for the Executive to cancel or alter data. Section 14 subsection 3 of the Act states that “Upon request by the Board, the Cabinet Secretary may with the approval of the Cabinet, cause any official statistical data collected, analyzed and disseminated by the Bureau to be cancelled, revised or adjusted after ascertaining that the data is not accurate”. This change leaves the KNBS vulnerable to influence and has seen delays in the publication of the 2019 poverty report resulting in a partial disbursement of DLR 2.4. 56. Support from the national government could have been more consistent. Funding for the KNBS from the government was occasionally released late which resulted in delays in implementing certain activities. There were also delays in receiving financial audit reports. The Program Steering Committee, intended to meet twice yearly, did not meet regularly enough to ensure these issues could be raised. 57. The government’s hiring freeze resulted in the understaffing of the KNBS across directorates. As at June 2020 KNBS had a staff shortfall of 265 against an approved establishment of 701 staff members (Table 6). As a result, implementation of program activities was adversely affected. Table 6: KNBS staff levels as at June 2020 Directorate/ Office Approved In-Post Shortfall Director General’s Office 22 10 12 Population and Social Statistics Directorate 83 32 51 Macroeconomics Statistics Directorate 80 29 51 Production Statistics Directorate 76 37 39 Statistical Coordination & Methods Directorate 297 178 119 Corporate Services Directorate 138 146 -8 Internal Audit Division 5 4 1 Total 701 436 265 Source: Evaluation of Cooperation Between KNBS and Statistics Sweden Since 2014 58. The implementation of the CRA action plan lacked adequate resources. Key factors affecting CRA implementation included: (i) availability of required personnel and funding within the client institution and oversight institution (the EACC) to be available to carry out the CRA and subsequent routine follow ups and; (ii) internal institutional capacity to implement CRA recommendations specifically within the internal audit and procurement departments. Whereas the Program found it difficult to lessen the challenges caused by insufficient personnel, the action plan helped KNBS plan better when staff would be required to ensure the completion of the DLR. 59. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic created implementation delays but mitigation measures averted the need for an extension of the Program. The pandemic necessitated suspension of face-to- Page 27 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) face data collection activities for the KCHS in quarters two and three of 2020, however the impact was mitigated by transition to phone interviews. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION M&E Design 60. The PDO indicators and targets were based on consultations with the key institutions and sector ministries and were compatible with the government’s approach and overall economic and policy development agenda. This ensured that the M&E framework was grounded in reality and that it could evolve during the reform process to address any new challenges. 61. One of the PDO-level indicators was to produce regular poverty monitoring data and statistics. This was adequately measured through target values that consisted of milestones toward the production of two iterations of poverty statistics within the five years of the Program. The PDO-level indicator on producing better real and external sector economic data is also well measured. Included in the indicator are milestones which measure improvement in the quality of macroeconomic data namely the rebased CPI and PPI updated to reflect changes in expenditure patterns over time. Improvements in real and external sector data are also captured in the proportion of SDDS criteria met. The measurement of the first IRA on filling data gaps was not adequately reflected by improvements in the SCI which depended on activities outside the remit of the Program. 62. As mentioned in the relevant section the design of the DLIs was appropriate. The DLIs emphasized different aspects of data production. For activities such as the 2015/16 KIHBS separate DLRs were used to reward the completion of tasks such as conducting fieldwork, the production of indicators and the dissemination of microdata. This allowed for periodic measures of progress to be evaluated and for a consistent flow of funds to reimburse the National Treasury. The effectiveness of DLIs as a financial incentive could however be improved with set timeliness criteria assigned to scalable DLIs which would decrease the disbursement at a given rate once a deadline passes. 63. Most DLRs were verified by the Internal Audit Department of the National Treasury, these were conducted in a timely manner. The verification of one DLR, verifying the operationalization of the FMIS, was conducted by the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Authority and required approximately one year due to an audit undertaken by the authority and follow up meetings with stakeholders. The design of the DLR, scheduling it early within the Program, ensured that it could still be disbursed against despite a lengthy verification procedure. M&E Implementation 64. The Program was subject to formal Implementation and Support Missions (ISMs) that monitored progress and provided extensive support. Progress in achieving the results was measured during ISM meetings and reflected in Aide Memoires and Implementation Status Reports (ISRs). These included updates on the SDDS and the SCI. Updates toward the completion of DLR 7.0 were measured using the EACC reports, which resulted from audits that occurred throughout the life of the Program. 65. Training provided by the World Bank was a key component of the success of the Program. KNBS has high- quality staff including trained statisticians and economists with many years of experience. The integration of Page 28 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) capacity building prior to significant activities ensured KNBS staff had the requisite skills in the latest software to produce high-quality and timely outputs. Capacity building was conducted by the World Bank to train 21 KNBS staff in 2016 on household survey data analysis using STATA. The training was carried out to staff in different areas of KNBS providing each of them with the skills to clean and analyze data. This shortened the time taken to prepare data, produce timely indicators and write the three reports produced using the 2015/16 KIHBS. Capacity building by the World Bank was also provided to train 6 staff on survey design using the Survey Solutions platform in 2018, this allowed KNBS to design the KCHS CAPI instrument. KNBS have since designed other instruments such as the survey investigating the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 using Survey Solutions. 66. As part of Technical Assistance (TA) from the World Bank, the IMF and Statistics Sweden each agency provided help in their given area of expertise. This was in the form of assistance in the production of outputs or peer reviews of draft reports from KNBS. For microeconomic activities such as the 2015/16 KIHBS or the 2016 MSME survey, the World Bank assisted the KNBS in questionnaire development, data monitoring and production of indicators. Once the draft reports were completed KNBS would then seek external peer-reviewers from local universities or research institutions to verify the quality of the outputs. The IMF through the East AFRITAC (Regional Technical Assistance Center) assisted KNBS with the design of the rebased CPI and in assessing the actions required to meet SDDS criteria. Statistics Sweden assisted with the production of the updated business register and the rebased PPI. Meetings with development partners and KNBS were held annually during ISMs to coordinate technical assistance and receive feedback from KNBS. The coordination between donors could however be improved through, for example, harmonized capacity building schedules. Twinning arrangement: Achieving an ambitious Program and the KNBS SP objectives required the support of proportionate levels of TA provided jointly by SIDA, the IMF and the World Bank. Working towards meeting the criteria and data quality levels necessary to subscribe to the SDDS and significantly increasing the SCI was an ambitious undertaking. Support for the KNBS through the Program was complemented by SIDA which provided US$3 million TA that included facilitating the integration of two long-term resident statistical advisors in the KNBS. These resident statistical advisors had substantial expertise to help guide the KNBS and provided hands-on TA towards achieving key results in the Program. The IMF continued to provide support for macroeconomic statistics through the East AFRITAC facility and its roster of experts was made available to advise and provide TA on critical SDDS related aspects of the Program. 67. Program progress reviews were conducted through reports from the Auditor-General’s yearly Financial Statements of KNBS. Regular DQAFs were also developed. In addition, several reports, including quarterly and annual progress reports, and monthly fiscal reports were used to monitor Program’s outcome and results indicators. M&E Utilization 68. Relevant data collected from reports showing achievement of indicators was evaluated and used to inform decision makers on various activities. To conduct the verification protocol for example, KNBS compiled all data, information and evidence of achieving DLIs and delivered this to the Internal Auditor General of the National Treasury for verification. For DLI 7, one of the milestones 14 was verified by the EACC and another by a team of Certified Information Systems Auditors from the ICT Authority. To ensure that the activities were fully and satisfactorily completed, the World Bank team either assisted in the production of the output or ensured that a peer review was undertaken. Additionally, for fully completed activities, based on the DLR requirements, the 14 Implement the Corruption Risk Assessment (CRA) action plan and strengthen financial and records management systems. Page 29 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) World Bank team reviewed outputs once disbursement requests were sent albeit in an informal manner as this had no place in the DLI verification protocol. 69. An action plan was designed during the December 2019 ISM to ensure the completion of the remaining activities. Progress toward achieving the activities set out in the Results Framework, DLIs and the Program Action Plan was used to design the action plan. Similarly progress towards achieving the CRA was measured through the CRA progress matrix which was included in each Aide-Memoire from May 2019 onward. Justification of Overall Rating of M&E Quality 70. The overall rating of M&E quality is considered Substantial. Despite minor weaknesses, the M&E design was realistic and M&E reports were prepared in a timely manner and effectively and accurately reflected the implementation status of the Program. The progress towards achieving the development objective and overall implementation consistently remained satisfactory as reflected in all the ISRs. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Environmental and Social 71. Environmental Compliance: The Bank prepared a comprehensive Environmental and Social Systems Assessment (ESSA) for the Program in 2015 to review the capacity of KNBS to plan and implement effective measures for environmental and social impact management and to determine if any measures would be required to strengthen them. Overall, the environmental and social risks were assessed as low. Among the six core principles 15, the activities of the Program were not considered to affect any of them. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of activities were ranked as low due to the small quantities of electronic equipment procured being insufficient to present any significant or severe impacts on the environment. 72. Kenya has an adequate legal framework and procedures for the management of E-waste which include the Environmental Management and Coordination Act of 1999; Waste Management Regulations; E-Waste Management guidelines; and draft E-waste regulations. This provided an adequate framework for managing and mitigating the impacts associated with E-waste. Through the Program Action Plan, the capacity of KNBS to manage the E-waste generated by the Program was strengthened by building awareness and sensitization, and providing training for the staff on E-waste management practices. All E-waste generated by the Program was disposed through a “Take Back Scheme” via an E-waste recycling facility that operated in compliance with international environmental standards. The ESSA identified that at least one such qualified facility was operating in Kenya (the East African Recycling Company) which recycled at a small fee 16 and had the capacity to properly dispose of all E-waste generated by the Program. 73. Social Compliance: KNBS had a comprehensive written complaints procedure approved by the Director General and evidence of logging and following up of complaints was provided. No complaints were outstanding on the project activities. KNBS also has a code of conduct for employees which includes non-discrimination and sexual harassment and abuse clauses. Employees (including enumerators) are oriented on the code which is part of their contract during their induction. Feedback from stakeholders was received during the launch of products General Principle of Environmental and Social Management; (ii) Natural Habitats and Physical Cultural Resources; (iii) Public and 15(i) Worker Safety; (iv) Land Acquisition; (v) Indigenous Peoples and Vulnerable Groups; and (vi) Social Conflict. 16 While this firm (East African Recycling Compliant Recycling Company Limited) has the capacity, it charges a small fee for some of the E-waste, for example: Kes 50/kg of tonner and 250/kg of florescent tubes. The cost is considerably reduced for the E-waste for which it can salvage something. Page 30 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) and complaints and compliments. Fiduciary 74. Fiduciary Compliance: During the Program’s preparation phase, an integrated Fiduciary Systems Assessment was conducted in three areas: (i) financial management, (ii) procurement, and (iii) fraud and corruption. The Program’s fiduciary systems met Operational Policy 9.00 requirements and performed adequately. The Program complied with all fiduciary covenants during implementation. Internal control arrangements were put in place, and adequate financial management, procurement, and disbursement systems were maintained. 75. Financial Management: The FM performance is rated ‘Satisfactory’. The FM guidelines in the Operational Manual incorporated the necessary internal control guidelines using the Country FM arrangements. The Program’s internal controls worked as intended. All key Program staff attended training workshops to fully understand the approved Manual. The final audit for the Program was carried out in full compliance with the international standards. The auditors expressed an unqualified audit opinion on the financial statements thus indicating that the financial statements gave a true and fair view of the transactions and financial position for the Program. However, there were delays in the submission of the audited financial report. The task team is yet to receive the audited financial reports for FY 2018/19 and FY 20219/20. This has occurred despite the project team receiving confirmation from the Office of the Auditor General and KNBS that reports each subsequent year would be received on time; the reports were nevertheless received late every year. 76. Procurement: The Program’s procurement performance is rated ‘Satisfactory’. The KNBS procurement unit had the requisite capacity to implement the Program, having been strengthened in the previous two years. Through the PPRA and its regulations, procuring entities established the requisite administrative organs and procedures which KNBS complied with. However, evidence of adherence to a PPRA audit scheduled as part of the Program Action Plan, was only provided at the end of the project. As a result, the project did not significantly benefit from improved procurement practices during the implementation period. All procurement packages were completed as per the approved procurement plan. All the prerequisites were in place to help ensure successful procurement and implementation. The Program fully utilized the country procurement system and adhered to the government’s procurement regulations as set out in the Program’s Operational Manual. Page 31 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) C. BANK PERFORMANCE Page 32 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Quality at Entry 77. The overall quality of Bank performance in ensuring quality at entry is Satisfactory. During the identification phase, the team focused on the opportunities for interventions in Kenya’s public sector to improve data management systems within KNBS. During Program preparation and appraisal, the Bank considered the adequacy of Program design and all relevant aspects, such as technical, financial, economic, institutional, and procurement arrangements. Major risk factors and lessons learned from earlier projects were considered and incorporated into the design. One shortcoming in the design of the Program was the predicted impact on the SCI. A number of activities were linked to the improvement the SCI despite being outside the scope of the Program. The Program was well grounded in the realities of Kenya and its challenges in the public sector and was well-focused on improving the quality of key official statistical products and processes; and strengthening dissemination practices as well as improving access to data and statistical products. Quality of Supervision 78. The quality of supervision is considered Satisfactory. The Bank’s team included the Task Team Leader (TTL), a co-TTL, FM and procurement specialists, technical experts, and consultants who consistently engaged closely with the counterparts and the MDAs. The majority of the World Bank’s implementation support team was based in Nairobi, Kenya’s Country Office and were available to provide assistance over the life of the Program. The Bank’s technical and fiduciary teams provided regular support to focus on maximizing Program's development impact. Toward the end of the Program, the COVID-19 pandemic delayed Program activities as in-person meetings could not occur. The action plan designed to ensure that outstanding DLRs were closely monitored and all sub-tasks completed did however avert the need for a Program extension. The task team conducted regular supervision missions to take stock of progress and coordinate assistance by switching to virtual meetings after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. ISRs and Aide-Memoires were candid and well targeted to outline important events. During ISMs the task team would both receive requests for technical assistance and feedback from ongoing assistance. Responses to these would be coordinated during donor partner meetings that also occurred during ISMs. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 79. Based on the satisfactory ratings for the Quality at Entry and for the Quality of Supervision, the overall rating of the Bank performance is considered Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 80. The following risks to development outcome have been identified: (i) Technical: the quantity and quality of human resources needs to be addressed and strengthened in line with the increased and more demanding workload. KNBS has significant technical expertise to undertake surveys/censuses, which was enhanced by TA during Program implementation. Continued capacity building and thematic TA will be essential for full realization of the outcomes. In this regard, it must be noted that the Program did not directly support the strengthening of human resource management. An objective of the KNBS strategic plan - to implement a new salary structure - required reclassification of the KNBS by the public service commission. The quantity and quality of human resources is, however identified as a risk to the development outcome. The Program team plans to address capacity constraints in the follow-up project through adequate planning, and in particular with Page 33 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) the continuation of the action plan used in the KSPforR. Improvements to the salary structure cannot be directly addressed in the forthcoming project as they are beyond the full realm of control of the KNBS. (ii) Financial: (i) KNBS is constrained by the limited and delayed budgetary allocations which poses a financial risk to the achievement of its development agenda and Strategic Plans. With low budgetary allocations implementation of key activities including those initiated under the KSPforR will not be possible. It was envisaged that KNBS funding by the government would have been institutionalized by the end of the Program which is not the case. (ii) KNBS has previously relied on support from Development Partners to finance key projects, however this support is not always guaranteed which also caused delays in implementing activities such as the Demographic and Health Survey. (iii) Social: The public supports data collection activities of KNBS, which has a comprehensive written complaints procedure and an employee code of conduct including non-discrimination and sexual harassment and abuse clauses. Feedback is also received from stakeholders during the launch of products. Thus, the social risks, which have been assessed as low, are likely to be maintained at this level. (iv) Economic: The sound macroeconomic performance of a country should translate into increased government revenue to fund its operations. During Program implementation, shocks related to general elections and COVID-19 affected the performance of the economy and resulted in reduced revenue collection. The implementation of statistical activities was also affected during these periods. Participation by the government in capital markets will necessitate the continued collection of quality data and the production of statistics. (v) Political: Threats to the independence of the KNBS may result in delays in the publication of reports and the uploading of data. This risk is both a high probability and consequence for sustainable results at KNBS. At the beginning of the Program, KNBS operated under the Statistics Act of 2006, however a provision was included in a 2019 Amendment to the Act to allow the executive to cancel or alter data. The revision was introduced late in the deliberation process and toward the end of the Program. Nonetheless, this threat to the independence of KNBS was noted as a risk to the development outcome. The Program team plans to mitigate this risk in the follow-up program with a DLR program which will disburse against the timely release of data. (vi) Environmental: The Program’s environmental risks remain low. During Program implementation, KNBS complied with National Environment Management Authority’s guidelines on e-waste management and the Environmental Code of Practice prepared for the Program. The Program had satisfactory environmental performance and the environmental risk is likely to remain low due to the guidelines being followed by KNBS. (vii) Governmental/stakeholders’ ownership and commitment: There is demand from the national government for the Bank’s continued engagement in statistics. Since the KSPforR program was focused on KNBS with results that were largely within the remit of KNBS themselves to meet, the involvement and therefore ownership and commitment from other government organizations/stakeholders was limited. However, moving forward it is crucial to involve other actors within the NSS to have their commitment and ownership for long-term sustainable results. (viii) Follow-up project: Preparation of a new regional project is presently underway which aims to strengthen the regional statistical system of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania to harmonize, produce, Page 34 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) disseminate, and enhance the use of core economic and social statistics. It is expected that the enhanced use of harmonized statistics will deepen regional integration accelerating growth and poverty reduction in the region. With the production of harmonized statistics, the evidence-base at the national, regional, and global level will be further improved in the region, including Kenya. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 81. The project offers several important lessons, summarized below. Some are specific to Kenya while others are broader and generally applicable: (i) Future projects should ensure that the Government of Kenya adequately supports KNBS. Legal provisions should be put in place for the project steering committee to meet regularly. If the intended participants of the steering committee cannot meet regularly then appropriate delegation measures should be in place. Non-compliance should be dealt with sternly including issuance of a Management Letter to the Government. Furthermore, despite the legal covenant in place for the Exchequer to provide adequate resources, the project experienced delays in receiving such funds. The timeliness of exchequer releases has improved throughout the life of the Program because of the Bank management taking up this matter with senior government officials. Despite this, KNBS still experiences delays in receiving funds. Even though this is a portfolio-wide challenge which is not specific to this operation, the Bank management should continue to intervene by sending warning letters including disbursement hold warnings. (ii) KNBS requires independence and adequate staffing to release timely statistics. In order to ensure that activities are completed on time, future programs should be designed with scalable DLRs. These should have pre-defined penalties for the delayed completion of activities. Additionally, KNBS should be adequately staffed and organize their work plan to ensure minimal delays. Insufficient staffing levels caused by a hiring freeze led to delays in conducting activities. KNBS should also consider mitigation measures within their work plan to offset lower staff levels especially during times when the workload is high such as during a census year. (iii) Program indicators should be linked to Program activities. The SCI score, for example, included activities outside the Program which resulted in the target score not being met. For a follow up Program, if indicators such as the SCI or the Statistical Performance Index are to be used, the activities linked to components of the indices should be explicitly defined in the preparation phase. This would help ensure their suitability and that a reasonable target score is defined. (iv) The Program generated improvements in the fiduciary systems of KNBS, however, care must be taken to ensure that future projects focus on the design and implementation of these components. Entity financial statements (as opposed to project specific) should be assigned at least nine months after the end of the Financial Year. KNBS did not submit an audit report within six months as stipulated in the Financing Agreement during the entire Program implementation period. The project also overlooked the procurement items of the PAP. One of the actions was to improve procurement practices following the procurement audit by the PPRA. This was only completed after the time stipulated in the PAP due to the follow up being overlooked at the start of the Program. Lastly, regarding the design of a future CRA, adequate resources must be provided, time bound actions must be defined, and the findings of the CRA should be shared with key oversight institutions such as the Office of the Auditor General. Page 35 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) (v) Provision of TA through bank-executed funding as well as twinning arrangement with the development partners, like Statistics Sweden, was a key success factor to the achievement of results. Prior to the start of activities, capacity building workshops were executed to ensure that the KNBS had the skills required to produce high-quality outputs. Collaboration with the Statistiska Centralbyran (Statistics Sweden) in the design of the program was also a success factor. Statistics Sweden was invited from the onset to workshops and meetings with KNBS and the World Bank in the design phase. This made it possible to find the best way to jointly support KNBS and to create leverage with the TA provided by the Statistics Sweden to support realisation of the DLIs under the Bank’s Program. This process was greatly helped by the fact that KNBS already had its own strategy document which formed the foundation for the support. (vi) Greater emphasis should be placed on the National Statistical System to help promote the institutionalization of funding for KNBS. Upon completion of the Program there was limited institutionalization of funding for KNBS; this was understandable given the significant impact of COVID-19 on fiscal space. The Program’s focus, however, was in the production of statistics. To help institutionalizing funding for statistics, future projects should emphasize building a system of statistics across government and building capacity for the use of statistics. Page 36 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK, DISBURSEMENT LINKED INDICATORS, AND PROGRAM ACTION PLAN Annex 1A. RESULTS FRAMEWORK (i) PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Inform policy-makers Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Inform development Text Outdated poverty All three targets Poverty and labor strategies, policies and statistics and achieved. indicators were used poverty reduction programs household survey data to inform MTP-3. of the Government of Kenya (2005/06) being used to infrom poverty reduction targeting and resource allocations 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Regarding the use of poverty statistics in the third revenue sharing formula, deliberations on the formula are ongoing in the legislature. At completion 2 out of 3 targets were met. Objective/Outcome: Generate better data Page 37 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Produce regular poverty Text Poverty statistics are All five targets Poverty monitoring monitoring data and statistics outdated (2005/06) achieved. data collected by and there is Kenya Continuous insufficient capacity to Household Survey monitor poverty at (KCHS). least once every 3 years 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Due to the prolonged electioneering period in 2017 the start of the KCHS was delayed. Poverty monitoring data was collected by the KCHS, the publication of the poverty report was however, delayed until after the completion of the project. At completion 3 out 5 targets were met. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Produce better real and Text Insufficient capacity to All five targets The rebased CPI and external sector economic meet SDDS criteria in achieved. PPI series were data all real and external produced and are sector data categories available online. 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Rebased national accounts were not available at the completion of the project. At completion 4 out of 5 targets were met. Page 38 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Objective/Outcome: Generate more accessible data Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improve access to official Text Microdata files not All five targets All five targets survey microdata available on-line and achieved. achieved. not freely obtainable 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets are fully met. Objective/Outcome: Strengthen the capacity of the KNBS Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improve Overall Statistical Percentage 54.00 69.00 57.80 Capacity Score 19-Aug-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): The most recent SCI score from 2020 does not include the updated score for the rebased CPI completed in 2020. Page 39 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) (ii) Intermediate Results Indicators Results Area: Data gaps filled and capacity strengthened through the implementation of integrated survey programs Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Implement an integrated Text National Accounts All four targets All four targets program of economic surveys source data achieved. achieved. to fill National Accounts incomplete and partly source data gaps outdated 30-Jun-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets are fully met. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improve Overall Statistical Percentage 54.00 69.00 57.80 Capacity Score (SCI) 30-Jun-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): The most recent SCI score from 2020 does not include the updated score for the rebased CPI completed in 2020. Page 40 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Results Area: Quality of key official statistical products and processes improved Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Compile the IMF data Quality Text DQAF not compiled All five targets All five targets Assessment Framework for any of the seven achieved. achieved. (DQAF) for five macro- macro-economic economic datasets datasets 30-Jun-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets are fully met. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Proportion of Special Data Percentage 72.00 100.00 100.00 Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements met or 30-Jun-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 partially met Comments (achievements against targets): Target is fully met. Results Area: Dissemination practices strengthened and access to data improved Page 41 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Develop an Advance Release Text ARC not used All five targets All five targets Calendar (ARC) and scale-up achieved. achieved. data coverage 30-Jun-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets are fully met. Results Area: Management systems strengthened Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Implement the Corruption Text CRA conducted and All three targets All three targets Risk Assessment (CRA) action endorsed action plan achieved. achieved. plan and strengthen financial prepared by KNBS and and record management fully implemented systems 31-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets are fully met. Page 42 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) ANNEX 1B. DISBURSEMENT LINKED INDICATORS DLI 1: DLI 1: Implement an integrated program of economic surveys to fill National Accounts source data gaps (Text) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total National Accounts source data Original values incomplete and partly outdated Micro and Establishme Integrated 2018 Survey small nt Census Survey of of Industrial enterprises conducted, Services Production (MSE) report (ISS) (SIP) survey produced conducted, conducted, Actual values conducted, and report report report available on- produced produced produced line and and and available on- available on- available on- line line line Allocated amount ($) 0.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 0.00 14.00 Disbursed amount ($) 0.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 0.00 14.00 Comments (achievements against targets): Each of the DLRs were achieved. DLI 2: DLI 2: Implement an integrated program of household surveys to fill key poverty, labor and socio-economic data gaps (Text) Page 43 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total Labor force, poverty and other key Original values socio- economic data outdated KIHBS KIHBS KCHS 2017 KCHS 2018 Design the 2015/16 2015/16 fieldwork fieldwork 2015/16 fieldwork poverty conducted conducted KIHBS partly report and and and County instruments, conducted labor quarterly poverty conduct and indicators labor report Actual values pilot, and progress reports indicators produced start report produced report and fieldwork by produced and produced available on- September and available on- and line 2015 available on- line available on- line line Allocated amount ($) 6.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 16.00 Disbursed amount ($) 6.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 0.00 15.50 Comments (achievements against targets): DLRs 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 were fully achieved. DLR 2.4 was partially achieved with the delay of the poverty report resulting in 80 percent of the activity being disbursed against. Page 44 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) DLI 3: DLI 3: Produce better real and external sector economic data (Text) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total Insufficient capacity to meet SDDS criteria in all Original values real and external sector data categories Produce and Foreign Business Rebased Rebased publish Investment register Consumer Producer revised Survey (FIS) upgraded Price Index Price Index National conducted and updated (CPI) series (PPI) series Actual values Accounts and report produced produced with base produced and and year and available on- available on- updated to available on- line line 2009 line Allocated amount ($) 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.00 7.00 Disbursed amount ($) 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.00 7.00 Comments (achievements against targets): Each of the DLRs were achieved. DLI 4: DLI 4: Compile the IMF Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for five macro-economic datasets (Text) Page 45 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total DQAF not compiled for any of the Original values seven macro- economic datasets DQAF DQAF DQAF DQAF DQAF compiled compiled compiled compiled compiled and and and and and Actual values published published published published published for 1 macro- for 2 macro- for 3 macro- for 4 macro- for 5 macro- economic economic economic economic economic dataset datasets datasets datasets datasets Allocated amount ($) 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 3.00 Disbursed amount ($) 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 3.00 Comments (achievements against targets): Each of the DLRs were achieved. DLI 5: DLI 5: Develop an Advance Release Calendar (ARC) and scale-up data coverage (Text) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total Original values ARC not used and Economic Page 46 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Surveys not digitized and not freely available Develop and Publish an Publish an Publish an Publish an publish an ARC ARC ARC ARC All past ARC covering 4 covering 6 covering 8 covering 10 Economic covering 2 data data data data Survey data categories categories categories categories Reports Actual values categories of the of the of the of the digitized and of the Special Data Special Data Special Data Special Data made freely Special Data Disseminati Disseminati Disseminati Disseminati available on- Disseminati on Standard on Standard on Standard on Standard line on Standard (SDDS) (SDDS) (SDDS) (SDDS) (SDDS) Allocated amount ($) 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 4.50 Disbursed amount ($) 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 4.50 Comments (achievements against targets): Each of the DLRs were achieved. DLI 6: DLI 6: Improve access to official survey microdata (Text) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total Microdata Original values files not available on- line and not Page 47 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) freely obtainable Revised Micro and Kenya KCHS 2017 KCHS 2018 Launch the microdata Small Integrated microdata microdata Kenya disseminatio Enterprise Household available on- available on- National n policy (MSE) Budget line line Data Archive produced, survey Survey Actual values (KeNADA) adopted and microdata (KIHBS with published available on- 2015/16) microdata line microdata from at least available on- 30 surveys line Allocated amount ($) 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 3.50 Disbursed amount ($) 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 3.50 Comments (achievements against targets): Each of the DLRs were achieved. DLI 7: DLI 7: Implement the Corruption Risk Assessment (CRA) action plan and strengthen financial and records management systems (Text) Baseline Year 0: 2015 Year 1: 2016 Year 2: 2017 Year 3: 2018 Year 4: 2019 Year 5: 2020 Total Governance, financial Original values management, and records management Page 48 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) systems require strengthening . Design and Establish an CRA operationali ISO 15489 conducted ze a FMIS certified and with multi- Record endorsed dimensional Managemen action plan Actual values chart of t (RM) prepared by accounts system KNBS and and fully capability to implemente generate d key reports Allocated amount ($) 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Disbursed amount ($) 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Comments (achievements against targets): Each of the DLRs were achieved. ANNEX 1C. PROGRAM ACTION PLAN PAP TBL Achieved Action Timing Completion Measurement (Yes/No) Page 49 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Before Appraisal, the KNBS will apoint a Due Date 30-Apr-2015 Yes Program Coordinator in office Program Coordinator in the Office of the Director General to help facilitate, manage and monitor the implementation of the Program A focal point will be appointed in the Due Date 31-Mar-2016 Yes Focal point appointed National Treasury to help ensure adequate Program budget provisions, to serve as a liaison person for stakeholders, and to help address cross-cutting issues related to Program implementation To strengthen M&E practices, the KNBS Recurrent Yearly Yes Standardized templates in use will design and utilize a standardized templates that will be used across Directorates for Program monitoring purposes on the results framework, the DLIs and the PAPs To provide coordination oversight for the Due Date 10-May-2016 Yes PSC formed and meeting semi-annually Program the GoK shall establish, within 3 months after the effectiveness date, a Program Steering Committee (PSC) comprising PS Planning, PS National Treasury and DG KNBS that will meet semi-annually Comments: While the PSC was formed meetings did not occur on a frequent enough basis. Page 50 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Provide adequate storage space with Due Date 31-Dec-2020 No Adequate storage space defined restricted access to procurement records to ensure records are maintained in a safe and secure environment Comments: A contract has been signed to create shelf space in the KNBS building, the item was however not achieved before completion of the Program. Contracts are archived in soft copy using an electronic document management system. All E-waste will be disposed via an Due Date 05-Sep-2018 Yes Certification of safe e-waste disposal provided and approved recycling facility. Awareness and training conducted. sensitization training for all managerial and director level KNBS staff on E-waste management practices will be conducted. Within 6 months following the Due Date 31-Dec-2020 Yes Audit report and evidence of compliance provided procurement audit by PPOA (to take place during the operation’s lifespan), KNBS will prepare an action plan documenting compliance with PPOA review findings Comments: The evidence of compliance was not provided within 6 months of the audit. Procurement planning integrated and Recurrent Yearly Yes Annual procurement plan observed to be aligned aligned to the budgeting process with annual budget. Prepare Contracts Management Due Date 31-Dec-2020 No Contracts Management Plan/Manual provided for Page 51 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Plan/Manual (CMP) outlining clear high-value contracts. responsibilities, procedures and guidelines for contracts management; and integrate contract management and monitoring with FMIS Comments: KNBS did not implement a CMP as they adhere to the Public Procurement Asset Disposal Act (PPADA), 2015 and do not produce an independent Contract Management Manual separately since the activities were simple and low-value contracts. Planning and Budgeting: Align the KNBS Recurrent Yearly Yes Budget provided in the printed estimates aligned annual budgeting process to the MTEF to with the Annual Work Program of the KSPforR. ensure adequate funds for the program Treasury Management and Funds Flow: Recurrent Semi-Annually Yes Comparison of exchequer releases and cashflow Improve adequacy and timeliness of requirements. exchequer releases The KNBS will establish a technical Recurrent Quarterly Yes Minutes of development partner meetings working group which will meet quarterly with development partner to facilitate effective coordination of TA activities Audit of the upgraded FMIS system for Recurrent Semi-Annually Yes Report from KNBS internal auditor that upgraded performance to ensure it continues to FMIS continues to deliver. deliver. Page 52 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Johan A. Mistiaen Task Team Leader Pablo Fajnzylber Practice Manager Hilda Emeruwa Operations Analyst Senait Kassa Yifru Program Assistant Marinella Yadao Program Assistant Angelina Musera Program Assistant Kishor Uprety Senior Counsel David Webber Consultant George Addo Larbi Lead Public Sector Management Specialist Christine Anyango Owuor ET Consultant Joel Munyori Senior Procurement Specialist Josephine Kabura Kamau Senior Financial Management Specialist Winston Percy Onipede Cole Senior Financial Management Specialist Christiaan Johannes Nieuwoudt Finance Officer Tom Bundervoet Senior Economist Rose Mungai Senior Economist/Statistician John Randa Senior Economist Edward Felix Dwumfour Senior Environmental Specialist Peter Thinwa Warutere Senior Communications Officer Supervision/ICR Utz Johann Pape, Nduati Maina Kariuki Task Team Leader(s) Aleme Worku Tachbele, Joel Buku Munyori, David Mburu Procurement Specialist(s) Gacheru Josphine Kabura Kamau Financial Management Specialist Page 53 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Anne Khatimba Team Member Edward Felix Dwumfour Environmental Specialist Kimberly Vilar Social Specialist Christine Anyango Owuor Team Member Mark Owuondo Odiaga Environmental Specialist Evelyn Irene Mbaire Kagwanjah Team Member Anita Vihenda Isige Team Member 1. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY14 7.243 71,495.71 FY15 32.524 221,463.64 FY16 .850 5,175.34 FY17 1.100 6,093.56 Total 41.72 304,228.25 Supervision/ICR FY16 22.038 176,265.79 FY17 12.125 162,361.95 FY18 31.269 183,524.82 FY19 13.673 169,116.99 FY20 27.346 192,407.52 Total 106.45 883,677.07 Page 54 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) ANNEX 3. PROGRAM EXPENDITURE SUMMARY Estimates at Actual Expenditures (Disbursement) Source of Program Type of Co- Appraisal (US$ Actual (US$ Percentage Percentage Financing Financing M) M) of Appraisal of Actual World Bank Credit 50.00 48.78 36.1% 35.6% Borrower Co-Financing 85.40 - 61.7% 62.3% Other Partners Grant 3.00 - 2.2% 2.2% Total - 138.40 - 100.0% 99.1% Page 55 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) 1. Project Appraisal Document, Report No.: 98312-KE, dated August 19, 2015 2. Implementation Status and Results Reports: 1 through 10 (Dec. 2015 through December 2020) 3. Aide-Memories 4. Mid-Term Review Report, Oct. 1-18, 2018 5. Financing Agreement, Report Number 5717-KE, dated October 2, 2015 Page 56 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) ANNEX 5. BORROWER’S ICR BORROWER’S IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT (ICR) FOR THE KENYA STATISTICS PROGRAM FOR RESULTS (KSPforR) KENYA NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS APRIL 2021 Page 57 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Acronyms ARC Advance Release Calendar CAPI Computer Assisted Personal Interview CIP Census of Industrial Production CISA Certified Information Systems Auditor CoE Census of Establishments CPI Consumer Price Index CRA Commission on Resource Allocation DLI Disbursement-Linked Indicator DLR Disbursement Linked Result DQAF Data Quality Assessment Framework EACC Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission FMIS Financial Management Information System IAD Internal Audit Department ICR Implementation Completion Report IDA International Development Agency IMF International Monetary Fund IRA Intermediate Result Area ISM Implementation Support Mission KCHS Kenya Continuous Household Survey KENAO Kenya National Audit Office KIHBS Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KSPforR Kenya Statistics Program-for-Results M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDAs Ministries, Departments, and Agencies MSME Medium-Small Micro Enterprise MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework PDO Program Development Objective PPI Producer Price Index PSC Program Steering Committee SCI Statistical Capacity Indicator SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard SDR Special Drawing Rights TA Technical Assistance Page 58 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Acknowledgements The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) acknowledges the following persons who contributed to the preparation and implementation of the Kenya Statistics Program for Results. KNBS: The Management led by Mr. Macdonald Obudho (Director General) for offering strategic leadership and advice. Mr. Stephen Ngugi (KSPforR Program Coordinator) for working closely with all players and ensuring that the program was successful and all officers who worked tirelessly on the activities of the program. World Bank: Special thanks to all World Bank specialists who worked on the program led by Mr. Utz Pape, Senior economist and Task Team Leader of the Kenya Statistics Program-for-Results. Special thanks to Nduati Kariuki, Economist and Task Team Leader, and Anita Isige, a consultant. Page 59 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Introduction The Kenya Statistics Program for Results (KSPforR) was a financing agreement between the Government of Kenya and World Bank aimed at supporting statistical development in the country from 2015/16 to 2020/21 FY. The objective of the program was to support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy makers and contribute to strengthening its capacity. The program was to a tune of SDR 35.6 Million (US$50.0 Million equivalent) and supported selected activities of the KNBS Strategic Plan. The KSPforR was a “results based” instrument where disbursements were tied to the achievement of agreed “Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLIs)”. Each DLI had several Disbursement Linked Results (DLRs) or milestones, which, when achieved and verified, triggered disbursement. At project conception, the Kenya Statistics Program for Results (KSPforR) was seen as best suited to support the KNBS strategic plan, because it: • Financed and supported Borrowers’ programs of expenditures and activities; • Disbursed upon achievement of agreed program results; • Focused on strengthening the institutional capacity and national systems needed for programs to achieve their desired results efficiently; • Provided assurance that financing was used appropriately and that the environmental and social impacts of the program were adequately addressed using national systems. Objective of KSPforR The Program Development Objective (PDO) for the KSPforR was “to support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy-makers and contribute to strengthening the Agency’s capacity”. The Program was supposed to close the most critical data gaps, including providing the data that was lacking to adequately monitor progress towards poverty reduction and fostering shared prosperity. The PDO was embedded in the results framework for the KNBS Strategic Plan 2013-17. To achieve the PDO, the KSPforR was structured to deliver results in four Intermediate Result Areas (IRAs) namely: 1. Data gaps filled and capacity strengthened through the implementation of integrated survey programs; 2. Quality of key official statistical products and processes improved; 3. Dissemination practices strengthened and access to data improved; and 4. Management systems strengthened. Project Components The boundaries of the Program were determined based on strategic relevance, Government demand, technical soundness, World Bank’s comparative advantages and coordination with support provided by other development partners. Some of the activities supported by the Program included strengthening capacity to implement integrated survey programs, quality improvements of statistical products and processes, and strengthening data access and dissemination practices. Page 60 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) The program became effective on 10th February 2016 and came to an end on 31st December 2020. Due to potential unforeseen delays in the verification process, the World Bank notified the National Treasury that disbursements can be made up until 30th June, 2021 for results achieved by 31st December 2020. There was no extension for the program. Financing The KSPforR was financed with SDR 35.6 Million (US$50.00 Million equivalent) and supported a subset of the Government’s program detailed in the KNBS Strategic Plan. The program received additional financing. Table 1: Program financing summary Source Amount (USD Million) % of Total Government 85.4 62 IBRD/IDA 50.0 36 SIDA (Technical Assistance) 3.0 2 Total Program Financing 138.4 Project Performance Indicators The Program had a total of seven DLIs as shown in Table 2. These DLIs were selected to represent one or both of the following criteria: (a) DLIs signal and monitor a milestone along the results chain without which the PDO cannot be achieved and/or (b) DLIs signal incentives for rewarding performance to encourage the practice of managing for results. Each DLI had several Disbursement Linked Results (DLRs) or milestones which when achieved triggered disbursement upon achievement. In total there were 34 Disbursement Linked Results (DLRs) whose details are in Annex 2. Table 2: KSPforR DLIs IRA 1: Data gaps filled and capacity strengthened through the implementation of integrated survey programs DLI 1 : Implement an integrated program of economic surveys to fill National Accounts source data gaps DLI 2 : Implement an integrated program of household surveys to fill key poverty, labor and socio-economic data gaps IRA 2: Quality of key official statistical products and processes improved DLI 3: Produce better real and external sector economic data DLI 4 : Compile the IMF Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for five macro-economic datasets IRA 3: Dissemination practices strengthened and access to data improved DLI 5 : Develop an Advanced Release Calendar (ARC) and scale-up data coverage DLI 6: Improve access to official survey microdata IRA 4: Management systems strengthened DLI 7: Implement the Corruption Risk Assessment action plan and strengthen financial and records management systems Page 61 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Program Implementation The program was fully implemented by the KNBS and was successful as highlighted by the various Implementation Support Missions (ISMs). At the beginning of the program, KNBS operated under the Statistics Act of 2006. The Act has since been amended to align it with the Constitution of Kenya, 2010 which stipulates that statistics is a shared service between the National and County Governments. Covenants applicable to project implementation Two covenants were agreed upon by the borrower and the lender namely; the adequate KNBS program budget provisions and the adequate flow of funds from the exchequer. The Borrower committed to provide adequate budget for the KNBS to the implement the program and reflect in the printed estimates and Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The Borrower also committed to ensure that the funds budgeted in the KNBS program based budget submissions and included in the printed estimates, are released to KNBS at agreed timelines and in full. Implementation Structures To provide oversight to the Program, the Government established a Program Steering Committee (PSC) whose responsibility was to oversee the progress and effectiveness of the Program; monitor the achievement of results; ensuring adequate budget provision for the full duration of the Program; and provide policy direction. The National Treasury appointed a program focal person to serve as the program liaison person between The National Treasury; the State Department for Planning; the KNBS and World Bank. The focal person also ensured that adequate budget provisions for the program was reflected in the annual Government of Kenya printed budget estimates. The KNBS appointed a member of staff to be the Program coordinator. The Program Coordinator was responsible for facilitating, managing and monitoring Program implementation. These responsibilities included facilitating supervision missions and engagement with KNBS staff responsible for and working on delivering various program areas. In addition, he coordinated the multi-development partner Technical Assistance (TA) program and organized development partner sector working group meetings Program Achievements Achievement of Project Development Objective The Project Development Objective (PDO) which was; “to support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy-makers and contribute to strengthening its capacity”, was fully met through the implementation of the program activities. Page 62 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Table 3: Overview of Program Development Objective (PDO) Indicators Program Development Outcome Indicator Status PDO: To support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy- makers and contribute to strengthening its capacity. The reports published and data collected from the field have been widely used by the Government. Key area of usage is in the recource Inform development strategies, policies and poverty allocation by the Government, where the poverty statistics have been reduction programs of the Government of Kenya used. In addition, the development of the Third Medium Term Plan (MTPIII) made use of the statistics updated through the program. The Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS 2015/16), which was one of the DLRs in the program, updated the poverty data Produce regular poverty monitoring data and statistics last developed in 2005/06. From the KIHBS 2015/16, the Bureau designed the Kenya Continous Household Survey (KCHS) which generates labour data on quarterly basis and poverty data annually. Produce better real and external sector economic All the real and external sector surveys/censuses which were planned data under the program were undertaken and reports produced. Improve access to official household survey All the microdata for surveys and censuses undertaken under the microdata program were uploaded in the KNBS website for use. So as to achieve the PDO, the Program was structured to deliver results in four Intermediate Result Areas (IRAs) as indicated in the Program Appraisal Document (PAD). The Program delivered results in all the IRAs as summarized in the table below. Page 63 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Table 4: Achievements of Intermediate Result Areas (IRAs) Intermediate Result Area (IRA) Status All the surveys planned to be undertaken under the program were implemented. Key data gaps such as poverty numbers were updated through the program. Huge activities such as the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) IRA 1:Data gaps filled and capacity 2015/16, Census of Establishments (CoE), Micro-Small and Medium Enterprise strengthened through the implementation of (MSME) survey, Census of Industrial Production (CIP) were conducted. The integrated survey programs rolling out of the Kenya Continuous Household Survey (KCHS) program, which provides quarterly labour reports and annual poverty data, is a key milestone achieved through the program Quality of statistics was improved through the peer review of reports and IRA 2: Quality of key official statistical development of Data Quality Assurance Frameworks (DQAFs). The process of products and processes improved data collection was improved through the use of Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) which reduced the time taken for data entry. Through the program, a data dissemination policy was developed. All the reports done through the program and survey microdata were uploaded in the KNBS IRA 3: Dissemination practices website. In addition, previous Economic Surveys and Statistical Abstracts from strengthened and access to data improved 1960 were scanned and uploaded in the website. At the end of the program, the Bureau had also developed an Advace Release Calendar (ARC) with ten (10) data categories. The program used the existing Government systems. Through the program, a Financial Management Information System (FMIS) was developed and is IRA 4: Management systems strengthened working well. All procurement requirement and financial audits for the program used the existing Government structures. Disbursement Linked Results As at 19th March 2021, twenty eight (28) out of thirty four (34) DLRs had been verified and National Treasury reimbursed USD 44 million. The six (6) remaining DLRs were at different stages of the verification process. Annex 1 shows details the 28 completed and verified DLRs and the corresponding amounts. Result Framework The Program achieved nearly all the defined results as stipulated in the Results Framework. The intermediate results indicators for poverty monitoring and access to microdata were met with the production of poverty estimates and the uploading of the data before the end of December 2020. The intermediate results indicators relating to the rebasing of the CPI and PPI were achieved, with the new series published in the first quarter of 2020. The intermediate results indicator for the Advance Release Calendar (ARC) was fully met with the release of an ARC covering 10 categories of the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). With the release of the quarterly labor reports, the target SDDS score in Page 64 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) the Results Framework was achieved. The intermediate results indicators for the implementation of the Corruption Risk Assessment action items and the ISO certification experienced delays but were fully met. However, the Statistical Capacity Index (SCI) lagged behind due to delays in the production of poverty estimates and the release of the rebased National Accounts. In addition, the health indicators collected through the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) has not been updated since 2014, which has lowered the SCI score. The SCI score was 57.8 at the end of the program, below the target score of 69. The program had indirect benefits towards poverty and shared prosperity by filling substantial data gaps useful for poverty monitoring. A poverty report was produced as one of the DLRs from the Kenya Integrated Budget Survey 2015/16, giving poverty data at both the National and County levels for better targeting and welfare monitoring. The Commission of Revenue Allocation (CRA) was a key user of the poverty statistics in allocating resources in the country. The program supported the Kenya Continuous Household Survey (KCHS) program to update employment statistics on quarterly basis and poverty data on annual basis. Exchequer releases On average there was an improvement in the releases from the exchequer to KNBS during the KSPforR implementation. The release of exchequer increased by four times to KSh 3.2 billion in 2015/16 and 2016/17 compared to KSh 0.8 billion in 2014/15 (before the program). Year 2017/18 was an election year and the flow of funds was affected. During the 2018/19 the Bureau implemented Kenya Population and Housing Census (KPHC), thus the huge increase in funds, while the program was implemented for half of 2019/20 which translated to reduced allocation to KSh 1.8 billion. Figure 1: Exchequer releases to KNBS Exchequer Releases to KNBS 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.0 6.0 KSh Billion 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 - 7.5 Other Achievements Page 65 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) The program met its objective of filling key data gaps, strengthening capacity of KNBS to undertake surveys/censuses, improving quality of data and statistical products, improving KNBS management systems and strengthening dissemination practices and access to data. In addition to the measurable milestones, other achievements of the program include; – Use of Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) technology in data collection which has minimized the time taken to publish results – Increased peer review of documents to improve on quality – Timely release of statistics – Better dissemination of microdata and reports – Developed Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for key Macro-economic datasets – Financial Management Information System (FMIS) was developed and in use – Electronic waste disposed in accordance to the E-waste guidelines – Improved Statistical Capacity Indicator (SCI) score. Support from the World Bank Monitoring through Implementation Support Mission (ISM) The World Bank undertook a series of missions to support the implementation of the program. These objectives of the Implementation Support Missions (ISMs) were to monitor the progress of the program and to recommend the necessary actions for areas not on track. At the end of each mission, an Aide- memoire was prepared detailing the recommendations of the mission. All the mission reports assessed the progress of the program as overall satisfactory. A summary of the missions undertaken is highlighted in Table 5. Mid-Term Review (MTR) A Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the program was undertaken between 1st and 18th October 2018 to access the implementation progress, program management and Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) and agree on actions points to ensure success. The mission assessed the progress on delivering the program as overall satisfactory, with a disbursement rate of 55 per cent. Based on the progress, the review saw no need of adjusting the PDO, the scope or the financing of the program. Table 5: Summary of the Review Missions by the World Bank RATINGS S/N DATE OF THE ISM Achie ve me nt towards PDO 1 15 – 25 February 2016 Satisfactory 2 7 – 21, May 2017 Satisfactory 3 15 – 26, January 2018 Satisfactory 4 1-18 October 2018 (Mid Term Review) Satisfactory 5 13 - 17 May 2019 Satisfactory 6 November 25 – December 10, 2019 Satisfactory 7 May 5 – May 8 2020 Satisfactory 8 14-17 December 2020 Satisfactory Challenges during implementation Page 66 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) The program implementation was successful as reported in the ISMs. However, the program experienced a few challenges, namely; Lengthy preparation process: Being a new financing program, the preparation phase of the program took more than one year. In addition, the program took five months between the approval (10th September, 2015) and effectiveness (10th February, 2016). This means that there were no verifications of achieved results which could have been done during this period. KNBS Capacity: The inadequate staffing levels at KNBS coupled with a freeze of new employment by the Government made it difficult to implement huge activities simultaneously, during the implementation of the program. The new KNBS structure which highlighted the employment shortfalls could not be implemented due to the freeze of new employment at all levels. During data collection, the Bureau mostly hired research assistants but the supervision, coordination, data analysis and report writing had to be undertaken by KNBS staff. National statistical activities such as the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census (KPHC), that drew human resources from KNBS, delayed achievement of some targets for the program. Financial audits delay: The program required that the audited financial statements for each year be submitted to the Bank by the end of December. The Kenya National Audit Office (KENAO) was not able to complete audits of the KNBS financial statements by end of December as required. This resulted in delays in submission of the same to World Bank. Exchequer releases: The program required that the exchequer releases be frequent and in full. During the implementation of the program, there was improved release of the exchequer. However, in a few instances, the exchequer releases were not done on time and in full. Verification Process: Most of the DLRs were verified by the Internal Audit Department (IAD) of the National Treasury. The verification of DLRs by institutions other than the Internal Audit of the National Treasury took longer than expected, resulting to delays in achievement of the same. Lengthy peer review process: The peer review, which was a requirement to ensure good quality reports, sometimes took long and delayed the achievement of results. General election: During the 2017 General election period, it was difficult to undertake field work activities. The 2017 General Election was prolonged due to the repeat of the presidential ballot. This resulted to delayed implementation of some fieldwork activities and publication of reports for the program. COVID19 Pandemic: The pandemic caused some delays in undertaking activities especially during the period when there was cessation of movement. Activities which required physical presence such as field work data collection and the establishment of an ISO 15489 certified record management system experienced delays. During this period, data collection for activities which had to be undertaken was done through telephone interviews. Financial Sustainability: The Bureau is constrained by the limited budgetary allocations which poses a financial risk to the achievement of its development agenda and Strategic Plans. With low budgetary Page 67 of 68 Official Use The World Bank Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) allocations implementation of key activities including the ones initiated under the KSPforR will not be possible. It was envisaged that KNBS funding by Government would have been institutionalized by the end of the program, which was not the case. It will be necessary for sufficient budget to be allocated to the Bureau to support continued statistical development beyond the project Key Observations and Lessons Learnt For the success of a program, there are important factors which are required; the commitment by all players, good leadership to drive the process, good choice of measurable outputs which should be anchored in the Strategic Plan and factored in the annual work plan. During the program design, there is need to get buy-in of the top management of the implementing agency and the Government should commit to support and fund the program. There should be wide and thorough consultations with all players and the choice of outputs is also important. For smooth implementation of a program, the implementing agency’s capacity to produce results (staffing levels and expertise) and independence to release results is very important. Support through Technical Assistance (TA), peer reviews and Implementation Support Missions (ISMs) plays a major role+ of assessing and filling any gaps. The financial and procurement structures at KNBS also played a key role since KSPforR used the existing Government structures. Continuous monitoring of the program is key to the success of a program. Monitoring tools should be developed to track the program performance. There should also be frequent updates of the status of the program and timely verification of results after achievement. Financing of the program ensures continuous and timely implementation of activities. The financing agreement should be followed with the exchequer releases being timely and in full. Page 68 of 68 Official Use