PROGRAM COORDINATION FOR THE WORLD BANK CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES www.worldbank.org/cleanair Patrick Bultynck Chantal Reliquet Sr. Urban Transport Economist Sr. Urban Specialist The World Bank, Africa Region The World Bank, Africa Region pbultynck@worldbank.org creliquet@worldbank.org THE WORLD BANK GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGES THE FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION AND SUPPORT FROM: ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME http://www.esmap.org Dominique Lallement Programme Manager ESMAP dlallement@worldbank.org THE COOPERATION AND SUPPORT FROM: Eleodoro Mayorga-Alba, Technical Advisor Lead Petroleum Economist The World Bank, COPCO emayorgaalba@worldbank.org AFRICACLEAN http://africaclean.sn Foreword T his is one of four documents of a series presenting the results of studies, workshops and action plans recently undertaken for four sub-Saharan African countries (Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania and Tanzania) on the elimination of lead in gasoline. This document describes the work realized in Ethiopia. These four countries have the particularity of being oil importing countries without local refining capability. The transition to unleaded gasoline should therefore theoretically be easier to implement in such a context than in oil-producing or oil-refining countries. Several technical issues (such as the definition of specifications) and regulatory issues must however be resolved in order to eliminate lead from gasoline in these countries. This is precisely the goal of the studies realized in these four oil-importing countries. These studies and workshops are financed by The Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) which plays a decisive role towards the transfer of technology and knowl- edge in energy sector management to governments of developing countries and of economies in transition. By bringing its own resources and expertise, ESMAP strengthens the partnership of the Clean Air Initiative in sub-Saharan African Cities. This ESMAP contribution also allows for reaching the goal set during the Dakar conference of June 2001: the complete elimination of leaded gasoline in sub-Saharan Africa as soon as pos- sible, at the latest by 2005. Dominique Lallement Inger Andersen Programme Manager Sector Manager Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme Water and Urban Development World Bank World Bank Africa Region Copyright İ 2003 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing December 2003 ESMAP Reports are published to communicate the results of ESMAP's work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript of the paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal documents. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, or its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The Boundaries, colors, denominations, other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Papers in the ESMAP Technical Series are discussion documents, not final project reports. They are subject to the same copyrights as other ESMAP publications The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to either: The World Bank Office of the Publisher, ESMAP Manager, or The World Bank Clean Air Initiative in sub-Saharan Africa at the address shown in the copyright notice above. ESMAP encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Table of Contents Executive Summary v 1. Why the need for this Action Plan? 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives of this report and action plan 2 1.3 Overview of Ethiopia's economy and urban development 2 1.4 Acknowledgements 2 1.5 Study Team 2 2. Benefits of lead phase-out 3 2.1 Lead is highly toxic 3 2.2 WHO recommends lead phase-out 4 2.3 Health impacts are growing 5 2.4 Economic costs of health impacts 6 2.5 Towards improved fuel and air quality 6 2.6 Other benefits 10 3. Potential cost advantages and disadvantages in lead phase-out 11 3.1 Fuel prices ­ ULG is cheaper 11 3.2 Change-over costs 12 3.3 Suitability of Older Vehicles with Soft Valve Seats to Use ULG 12 3.4 Conclusion 13 4. Priority issues and recommendations for leaded gasoline phase-out 15 4.1 Fuel specifications and fuel quality 16 4.2 Vehicle imports and emission controls 17 4.3 Base line studies of emissions and health impacts and strengthening the environmental legislative framework 18 4.4 Public Awareness Campaign 19 5. Action Plan to phase out leaded gasoline and next steps 21 6. Indicative Public Awareness Campaign 27 6.1 Objectives and outputs 27 6.2 Target audience 28 6.3 Role of Civil society, media and other partners 28 6.4 Emerging issues 29 6.5 Indicative Public Awareness Detailed Plan 32 7. Annex A ­ Terms of Reference for Preparation of this Action Plan 37 8. Annex B ­ Overview of Ethiopian Petroleum Market 41 9. Annex C ­ Draft mandate for a multi-sectoral working group to oversee action plan implementation 47 10. Annex D ­ Draft Outline Terms of Reference for follow on air quality activities 49 11. List of Workshop Participants 53 12. Report References 55 13. List of ESMAP Technical Paper Series 57 iii CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Abbreviations and Acronyms Africaclean NGO based in Sénégal promoting clean air activities in Africa CNG Compressed Natural Gas CH4 Methane CO Carbon Monoxide COHb Carboxyhemoglobin EPA Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority EPE Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program GHG Green House Gas HC Hydrocarbon IQ Intelligent Quotient MEM Ministry of Energy and Minerals MTBE Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether NOX Oxides of Nitrogen NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations PM10 Particulate Matter smaller than 10 microns PM2.5 Particulate Matter smaller than 2.5 microns PM1.0 Particulate Matter smaller than 1 micron RON Research Octane Number RTA Ethiopian Road Transport Authority QSA Ethiopian Quality and Standards Authority SO2 Sulfur Dioxide SPM Suspended Particulate Matter SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TA Technical Assistance TOE Ton Oil Equivalent TSP Total Suspended Particulate µg Micrograms UNEP United Nations Environment Program ULG Unleaded Gasoline VOCs Volatile Organic Compounds Approx. Currency Equivalent US$ 1.00 = 8.7 Ethiopian Birr (Date: June, 2003) iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary T he global phase-out of lead from gaso- Lead is a poison with significant negative line has proceeded dramatically in the public health impacts. Historically, the princi- last five years. Countries in North pal source of atmospheric lead has been the America, Europe, Japan and Asia have combustion of alkyl lead additives in motor fu- phased-out leaded gasoline; about 85% els. As SSA and other oil importing countries of total gasoline consumption is now are confronted with fewer difficulties to phase lead-free. However there are a number of coun- out lead from gasoline than those operating tries that still use lead additives to boost octane national refineries for the supply of their mar- levels in gasoline. Almost all of these countries kets, there is an opportunity to make a major are in Africa and the Middle East. The World environmental step forward through early leaded Health Organization recommends that leaded gasoline phase-out. gasoline be phased out worldwide. As shown in Chapter 2 of this report, while An agreement was reached in June 2001 overall Ethiopia's urban population appears not at the Dakar Conference in Senegal to launch to have the lead exposure from gasoline esti- national programs to phase-out leaded gaso- mated for other countries in the region, the ur- line by 2005 in the countries of sub-Saharan ban population whose main activities are in close Africa (SSA). proximity to major roads would be likely to ex- Follow up conferences have since been held hibit similar lead exposure from mobile sources. in Abuja, Nigeria in November 2001; Dakar, Continued economic development without lead- Senegal in March 2002; Cotonou, Benin in phase out would undoubtedly increase the like- April 2002 and Nairobi, Kenya in June 2002. lihood of spiraling negative health impacts due All four conferences supported the Dakar dec- to lead. These negative impacts fall dispropor- laration. Many countries have committed to the tionately on the poorer people in urban areas. 2005 phase out date and Mauritius has gone a Improved fuel quality to standards similar or step further by aiming for phase out by August equal to that used by other countries in the re- 2002. gion will also have important economic benefits: The World Bank has obtained Energy Sec- tor Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) Economic­facilitationofregionaltradeand funding to assist Ethiopia (and Mauritania, Mali cooperation, larger markets and economies and Tanzania) to develop an action plan, as of scale; described in this report, which demonstrates Securityofsupplies­fuelofasuitablequality the benefits of leaded gasoline phase-out and can be sourced from a range of markets/ outlines the necessary associated actions. suppliers; v CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Facilitate capacity building ­ knowledge and Establishing baseline inventories of key pol- skills enhancement will be increased through lutants and health effects; and wide access to technical expertise; and Developing an appropriate public informa- Environmental­jointimplementationofen- tion or awareness campaign. vironmental standards with neighboring countries in the region; In Chapter 5 of this report, we propose three key recommendations to commence the In Chapter 4, rather than cost penalties, a process of leaded gasoline phase-out and to change-over to unleaded gasoline is expected move towards a more comprehensive approach to lead to important savings to the economy to air quality management. The three recom- and to motorists through: mendations are: A switch to unleaded gasoline will lead to Recommendation 1 ­ The Cabinet of the significant foreign exchange savings ­ a sav- Government of Ethiopia immediately an- ing of at least US$2M per year is antici- nounces to consumers that by the begin- pated; ning of 2004 leaded gasoline will be Changeover costs are expected to be neg- completely phased-out at that time, and ligible; instead a single grade of ULG will be sup- Theimpactofunleadedgasolineonengines plied to the market. with soft valve seats in a small proportion Recommendation 2 ­ The Cabinet of of cars manufactured prior to 1980 is ex- the Government of Ethiopia commits to pected to be minor but could be compen- establishing a multi-sectoral stakeholder sated for by appropriate (lubricant) additives group by end 2003 consisting of senior to the fuel. But additives are not recom- members of government agencies, the oil mended as they are not considered neces- industry, and civil society including Non- sary; and Government Organizations (NGOs) and Reduced maintenance costs for cars are ex- consumer groups for a period of at least pected. three years. The Ethiopian EPA, Ministry of Health and Ministry of Trade and Indus- These benefits have already been recognized try would have lead roles in its implemen- by the Government of Ethiopia that has pro- tation. Further details of the role of mulgated new specifications for ULG and has individual organizations are made in Chap- decided that by July 2003 all gasoline imported ter 5. This multi-stakeholder group would into Ethiopia shall be ULG. oversee implementation of the public The phase-out of leaded gasoline is but a awareness activities and provide feedback first step in developing a more comprehensive and advice to implementation agencies. A approach to air quality management that would proposed draft mandate for this group is include actions on: included in Chapter 9 ­ Annex C. Recommendation 3 ­ The Cabinet of the Improving fuel quality and developing new Government of Ethiopia commits to devel- fuel specifications; oping a more comprehensive approach to Upgradingthequalityofvehicleimportsand air quality management by end 2003 based emission controls; on the Terms of Reference (ToR) described vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY in Chapter 10 ­ Annex D and recom- Chapter 6 of this report provides details of mended action plan set out in Table 5.1. an indicative approach for developing a public Ethiopian EPA would have the lead role. awareness campaign to be overseen by the multi-sectoral stakeholder group ­ a draft man- The action plan recommends an integrated date for this group is set out in Chapter 9 ­ approach to improve air quality starting by phas- Annex C. ing-out leaded gasoline in Table 5.1. It con- After the government makes a decision to sists of these three key recommendations and adopt the recommended Action Plan it will be 12 others. possible for the Government to seek funding support from donor institutions to continue with its implementation. vii 1CHAPTER Why the need for this Action Plan? 1.1 Background environmental management framework. In ad- dition, several regulations, detailed guidelines The global phase-out of lead from gasoline has and mechanisms have been prepared for envi- proceeded dramatically in the last five years. ronmental assessments of investments. Countries in North America, Europe, Japan Lead is a poison with significant negative and Asia have phased-out leaded gasoline; about public health impacts. As Ethiopia and other 85% of total gasoline consumption is now lead- oil importing countries are confronted with free. However there are a number of countries fewer difficulties to phase out lead from gaso- that still use lead additives to boost octane lev- line than those operating national refineries for els in gasoline. Almost all of these countries the supply of their markets, there is an oppor- are in Africa and the Middle East. tunity to make a major environmental step An agreement was reached in June 2001 forward through early leaded gasoline phase- at the Dakar Conference, Senegal, to launch out. national programs to phase-out leaded gaso- This opportunity has already been recog- line by 2005 in the countries of sub-Saharan nized by the Government of Ethiopia that has Africa (SSA). promulgated new specifications for unleaded Follow up conferences have since been held gasoline (ULG) and has decided that by July in Abuja, Nigeria in November 2001; Dakar, 2003 all gasoline imported into Ethiopia shall Senegal in March 2002; Cotonou, Benin in be ULG. April 2002, and Nairobi, Kenya in June 2002. The World Bank has obtained Energy Sec- All four conferences supported the Dakar dec- tor Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) laration. Many countries have committed to the funding to assist Ethiopia (and Mauritania, Mali 2005 phase out date and Mauritius has gone a and Tanzania) to develop this report and ac- step further by aiming for phase out by August tion plan to demonstrate the benefits of leaded 2002 gasoline phase-out and on-going air quality man- In the past decade, Ethiopia has made sig- agement actions. The draft version of this report nificant progress in introducing regulations, and Action Plan was discussed in a workshop strategies, and guidelines for various aspects with Ethiopian stakeholders on June 12-13, of environmental management; the Conserva- 2003. Following comments received during the tion Strategy and Environment Policy led to workshop, this final version of the report and the establishment of the Environmental Pro- Action Plan was prepared. tection Authority (EPA), and a national 1 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES 1.2 Objectives of this Gondar ­ 163,000; and report and action plan Dessie ­ 141,600. The objectives of this report and action plan are: 1.4 Acknowledgements To assist the Ethiopian Government mak- The study team extends thanks to the mem- ing the decision to stop importing leaded bers of the Ethiopian Government, who gave gasoline; and generously of their time at short notice during At the same time, raise awareness in gov- our mission to Ethiopia in February, 2003. We ernment, industry and civil society on the are particularly grateful to State Minister, need to pursue policies to improve urban Tadesse Haile of the Ministry of Trade and In- air quality. dustry and Mr. Yigzaw Mekonnen, General Manager, Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise. We While the action plan concentrates on the also wish to acknowledge the generous assis- issue of lead in gasoline and the need for leaded tance of Mr. Hagos Aregay (MoTI); Mr. Martin gasoline phase-out, this is but a first step to- Fayalu (Mobil Oil East Africa) and Mr.Desta wards a more comprehensive approach to Mabrutu (Chemical Engineers Associaton). Ex- integrated Air Quality Management (AQM). This cellent cooperation was also provided by oil action plan also discusses what the priority companies, non-government organizations and follow-on steps towards AQM might be. others. 1.3 Overview of Ethiopia's 1.5 Study Team economy and urban development The World Bank's study team consists of: Ethiopia's economy as measured by gross do- mestic product (GDP) was an estimated DrEleodoroMayorgaAlba,LeadPetroleum US$6.04bn in 2001. In recent years the Economist, World Bank; economy has been growing at around 3% per Dr Amadou Diouf, President of the annum. The nation's population was an esti- Africaclean network1; mated 65 million in 2002 and the average per Lynda Osafo, Executive Director, Junior capita income was US$93 which is extremely Eco-Club Organization, Ghana and mem- low. ber Africaclean network; Over 90% of the population lives in rural Menbere Taye Tesfa, Consultant, World areas with most relying on subsistence farm- Bank Resident Mission, Addis Ababa; and ing. The capital city of Addis Ababa had an Philip Sayeg, Project Consultant. estimated population of 2.7 million in 2002. Ethiopia's next four largest urban centers to- gether with their populations (in 2002) are: Dire Dawa ­ 237,000; 1An NGO based in Senegal promoting clean air Nazareth ­ 189,000; activities in Africa. 2 2CHAPTER Benefits of lead phase-out 2.1 Lead is highly toxic This exposure route is most important in young children, who tend to crawl and put things in Lead is a highly toxic, non-degradable, element their mouths. Because of a mixed and largely that can result in damage to the brain, kidneys, unplanned land use, residential dwellings, of- blood, central nervous system, and reproduc- fices, shops, restaurants, schools and hospitals tive system. Children who are exposed to high are usually located adjacent to major roads. This levels of lead may experience slowed cognitive high exposure of the general population to development, reduced growth, and other health vehicle emissions is compounded by the prac- effects. Regulators in many countries are now tice of roadside eating and walking (the majority aware of the insidious consequences of cumu- of trips are believed to be walking trips) which lative low-level exposure to lead, most notably increase the exposure to lead. decrements in neurobehavioral development of Atmospheric lead concentrations of 50 µg/ children (Dr Schwela et al, 2001). In many m3 have been found in remote areas. In devel- countries, lead use in gasoline and other prod- oped countries, where most gasoline sold is ucts (e.g. paints) has been, or is being unleaded, typical annual average concentrations phased-out, as a consequence of this. are between 0.1 and 0.2 µg/m3 in urban ar- Anemic children are most vulnerable with eas and between 0.01 and 0.05 µg/m3 in rural lead more easily being able to be fixed into the parts. Concentrations in excess of 1 µg/m3 bones. A loss in Intelligence Quotient (IQ) for are recorded in cities in developing countries, children is a future loss in the future intelligence of the adult Figure 2.1 population that would have un- Loss in IQ due to Lead Exposure desirable impacts on economic development. Figure 2.1 indi- cates how an average loss in intelligence implies a reduction in the capacity of society's most intelligent persons and therefore a loss in creativity. Gain !! Lost !! Exposure to atmospheric lead is usually through the gastrointes- tinal tract as a result of consuming IQ Distribution and lead in blood dust containing lead particles. 3 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES which still heavily rely on leaded gasoline µg/m3, due to the significant negative impacts (Schwela et al, 2001). of lead on human heath, the WHO recom- The transport and distribution of lead is pri- mended in 1995 that the use of lead additives marily via air. Airborne lead can be deposited in motor fuels be phased-out and that expo- on soil and water, thus reaching humans through sure to other sources of lead should be reduced the food chain and in drinking water. Atmo- (Schwela et al, 2001). spheric lead is also a major source of lead in household dust. Potentially airborne lead can contaminate food and vegetation, water and soil with sig- Table 2.1 nificant environmental and health impacts Ambient Air Quality Standards in µg/m3 (Sridhar, 2001). Historically, the principal source of atmo- Averaging Standard or Pollutant time Guideline µg/m3 spheric lead has been the combustion of alkyl lead additives in motor fuels. However, in coun- US-EPA WHO tries that have not yet started phasing out lead TSP Daily ­ 2 as an antiknock agent in gasoline, most of the Annual1 lead in the environment originates from vehicu- PM Daily 150 ­ 2 lar emissions. In those countries, the addition 10 Annual 50 of tetra alkyl lead in motor fuels accounts for an estimated 80­90% of lead in ambient air. Lead (Pb) 1-month The degree of pollution from this source dif- Annual 0.5 fers from country to country, depending on Ozone (O ) 1-hour motor vehicle density and efficiency of efforts 3 8-hours 120 to reduce the lead content of petrol. In Ethio- pia, there are no primary or secondary lead SO Daily 365 125 2 processing and refining factories, nor any lead Annual 80 50 alkyl manufactures, lead oxide and inorganic NO 1-hour 200 2 pigments products and grey iron foundries. Annual 100 40 Hence, the main source of lead in the atmo- CO 1-hour 40 K 30 K sphere in Ethiopia is considered likely to 8-hour 10 K 10 K originate from the use of leaded gasoline. Notes: 1 Geometric mean 2 2.2 WHO recommends WHO no longer recommends air quality guideline for PM because there is no safe lower limit for PM. lead phase-out ­ Values of US-EPA are for primary standards. ­ Annual Average is an average of daily measurements taken during a period of one year. As no amount of lead in the ambient air is con- ­ µg/m3 is a unit of measurement and refers to one millionth sidered safe, US-EPA does not specify maximum of a gram of a pollutant in a cubic meter of air. ­ Guideline refers to the safe level of a pollutant, for the given lead concentration in its standards as shown in averaging time, to protect the public from acute health ef- Table 2.1. Although the current World Health fects. Organization (WHO) standard for a maximum ­ CO values are in 1000 (K) of µg/m3. lead concentration in the ambient air is 0.5 Source: WHO/SDE/OEH/00.02, Geneva 2000. 4 CHAPTER 2: BENEFITS OF LEAD PHASE-OUT 2.3 Health impacts are growing cent to major roads, their exposure can be expected to be similar to that observed in other At present, because the Ethiopian vehicle fleet countries where gasoline has a similar lead is small and the population dispersed, the im- content to that used in Ethiopia. pacts of airborne lead and other pollutants are Senegal provides an interesting compari- likely to be low in an international context and son to Ethiopia--according to Table 2.2, the in relation to other environmental issues. exposure of the urban population to lead from However, the problem is concentrated in gasoline is much higher than in Ethiopia al- the major cities where the ambient atmospheric though this estimated "exposure" fails to take lead and associated health problem would be into account the very high volume of walking larger and growing. For example, a rough es- and other roadside activities which are com- timate of the amount of urban lead exposure mon in Ethiopia's cities. from gasoline for Ethiopia in relation to other In the absence of specific data on lead lev- selected SSA or similar countries is shown in els in blood in vulnerable groups in Ethiopia, Table 2.2. data from Senegal may prove instructive. A The table shows that the lead exposure in recent authoritative study carried out in Dakar, Ethiopia (and Tanzania) is expected to be lower Senegal (Dr. Diouf et al 2001), showed a sig- than in neighboring Kenya or similar countries nificant difference was observed (p=0) between such as Ghana and Senegal. However, even blood lead levels observed in children living in though the overall lead emissions per capita in urban areas (average 106.6 µg/l) and those Ethiopian urban areas may be lower for those living in rural areas (average 68.1 µg/l). This people whose main activities take place adja- is the maximum level in a child tolerated by Table 2.2 Estimate of relative Lead Exposure in Selected Countries Maximum Average Actual Exposure Market Share Motor % of Lead Actual Leaded Total to Leaded of Leaded Gasoline gasoline Concentra- Lead Con- Gas Urban Gasoline Gasoline Consumed consumed tion in centration Emissions Pop (tons per (%) {a} (million in urban Gasoline in Gasoline (metric (000) M urban Country 20021 liters) areas (gms/liter) (gms/liter)2 tons) 1995 95 pop) Ethiopia 100 188 0.70 0.6 0.06 11 8,695 0.9 Ghana 100 806 0.80 0.6 0.1 81 6,222 10.4 Kenya 100 458 0.70 0.4 0.2 92 7,763 8.3 Senegal 100 242 0.80 0.8 0.2 48 3,629 10.7 Tanzania 100 165 0.70 0.4 0.2 33 7,279 3.2 Notes: Gasoline consumption for Tanzania and Ghana is in 2002; for other countries in 1995. 1 Market share and fuel consumption data are for 2002 but for Kenya is 1995 data. 2 Lead content for Ghana is average actual for 2001/02 (Jan 01­May 02); for Tanzania, Senegal & Kenya lead content is assumed. Source: Adapted from WRI 2002. 5 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES the Center for Disease Control (Atlanta, USA) from gasoline estimated for Senegal and the since 1991. The study noted that these high other countries shown in Table 2.2, the urban levels of blood lead seem to be caused by lead population whose main activities are in close from automobiles. No industries likely to emit proximity to major roads would be likely to lead into the atmosphere exist within the study exhibit similar lead exposure from mobile area. sources. Dr. Diouf et al (2001) compared the results Continued economic development without to similar studies carried out in Africa and found lead-phase out would undoubtedly increase the that the recorded blood lead concentrations likelihood of spiraling negative health impacts were similar: due to lead. These negative impacts fall dis- proportionately on the poorer people in urban Dr. Nriagu, 1997 carried out two studies; areas. the first one was in Nigeria, in the medium sized town of Kaduna and the average blood lead level in children aged between 1 and 2.4 Economic costs of 6 years old was 106 µg/l; and health impacts In the second study, in South Africa, covering 1,200 children aged between 3 Many studies have estimated that the economic and 10 years old, the average blood lead cost of poor air quality in developing countries level of children living in urban areas is significant in terms of increased mortality and was 100µg/l and 38µg/l for those living in morbidity and in terms of health impact (esti- rural areas (Nriagu, Oleru et al, 1997a mated between 0.5 to 2.5% of GDP). Nriagu, Jinabhai et al, 1997b). For example in the case of Thailand, that phased-out leaded gasoline over 1992 to 1996, Diouf et al (2001) stated that "...the (lead) a recent study found that the phase-out of leaded levels found in our study are very high com- gasoline had major health and associated eco- pared to those of children living in industrialized nomic benefits as shown in Figure 2.2. countries. In the USA children between the ages of 1 and 6 yrs had levels of 27µg/l from 1991 to 1994, whereas these were 40µg/l in 1988 2.5 Towards improved fuel to 1991, and approximately 150µg/l from and air quality 1976 to 1980. In France, the average blood lead levels were estimated at 36 µg/l in 1995 Air quality of a given locality is determined by in children between 1 and 6, expecting to reach the amount of emissions produced by motor 25µg/dl by 2000. The reduction of average vehicles and other sources as well as topogra- levels of blood lead in industrialized countries phy and prevailing meteorological conditions. since the 80s is linked to the implementation Ambient air quality in almost all large cities in of the "unleaded" policy that began earlier in the developing world today exceeds acceptable the States than in France". standards and is linked to major health prob- In conclusion, the amount of lead exposure lems of the exposed population. Health impacts in children in urban areas in Senegal was found vary depending on the type of pollutant, the to be very high. While Ethiopia's urban popu- length of exposure and the extent of interac- lation appears not to have the lead exposure tion with other pollutant types. 6 CHAPTER 2: BENEFITS OF LEAD PHASE-OUT Figure 2.2 Benefits of Unleaded Gasoline (ULG) Phase-out in Thailand A study on health benefits after the implementation of the ULG policy showed that blood lead levels in traffic policemen decreased dramatically from 28.14 µg/dl in 1988 to 5.33 µg/ dl in 2000. Similarly, blood lead levels in school children also decreased from 8.56 µg/dl in 1993 to 5.58 µg/dl in 2000. Therefore, it is obvious that the leaded gasoline phase-out policy yielded health benefits to the population in Thailand. This study also calculated the monetary value of health benefits resulting from reductions in IQ loss effect on lifetime earnings in children, and in hypertension, heart disease, stroke and premature mortality in adults. The monetary value of health benefits was calculated to be 7,000 million Baht (US$ 163M using an exchange rate of Thai Baht 43= US$ 1.00 prevail- ing at March 03), while the costs of the phase-out are only 200 million Baht (US$ 4.7M). Therefore, the benefits outweigh the costs by more than 32 fold. However, the study found that lead in paint is another important challenge. Both children and traffic policemen whose blood lead levels exceed the standard have one common risk factor--exposure to house paint. Therefore, it is recommended that Thailand initiate mea- sures to limit or remove lead from other sources, particularly paint. Source: The Study on "Unleaded Gasoline Policy: Health Benefits for School Children and Traffic Policemen in Bangkok Metropolitan Administration" done by Chulalongkorn University and PCD, 2002. As vehicles normally contribute more than Apart from reducing the maximum content half of the emissions within an urban air shed, of lead in gasoline or eliminating lead altogether, the phase-out of leaded gasoline that is worth- another action that appears immediately ben- while on its own, is an important first step in eficial is to reduce the level of sulfur in diesel improving overall fuel quality and hence air qual- fuel from its present specified maximum level ity. of 8,500 parts per million (ppm). Most devel- Although there is at present little hard evi- oped and many developed countries are now dence on the relative importance of other reducing the level of sulfur in diesel fuel to a emissions, it appears that PM from badly tuned maximum of 500 ppm or lower. This 500ppm buses (and perhaps two-stroke motorcycles) is level of sulfur content compared to the present a growing problem. While there are clearly PM 8,500ppm specification can be achieved at rela- emission hotspots at street level, it is likely that tively low incremental cost. From the point of ambient levels of PM are within accepted in- view of an oil importing country such as Ethio- ternational standards. High levels of sulfur in pia there may be no cost penalty for moving diesel fuel are a major source of black smoke to low sulfur (500ppm) diesel. and particulate matter emissions that are very Improved fuel quality such as introducing harmful to human health as described in Fig- unleaded gasoline (ULG) and low sulfur diesel ure 2.3. fuel pave the way for use of advanced tech- 7 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES nologies for emissions reduction in vehicle fleets. Catalytic converters reduce the tailpipe emis- In gasoline powered engine vehicles, catalytic sions of HC, CO and NOX and pollutants converters can then be introduced to reduce emitted with engine exhaust gases. Lead not CO, HC and NOX and in diesel powered en- only reduces the efficiency of the catalyst but gine vehicles, the use of purifiers and filters can can destroy it. cut particulate and other emissions dramatically. A summary of key pollutants other than lead ULG is needed to operate catalytic convert- emitted from gasoline and diesel-powered ve- ers that come as standard in modern cars. hicles is summarized in Figure 2.3. Figure 2.3 Summary of Other Key Pollutants and Health Issues Particulate matter (PM) is a growing problem in many urban areas in developing coun- tries. Collectively, particulate pollution is often referred to as Total Suspended Particulates (TSP). Fine particulates less than 10 and 2.5 microns in size are referred to as PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. These have the most significant impact on human health because they can penetrate deep into the lungs. PM emissions are a key health concern with estimated economic damage costs much higher than for other pollutants. Major sources of particulate pollution in urban areas are likely to be industry and commerce, re-suspension of road and construction dust, and vehicles. In non-urban areas, sources such as agricultural burning contribute significantly to overall particulate pollution, and their impacts are also felt in urban areas. Carbon monoxide (CO) is an odorless, invisible gas, formed when carbon in fuel is not burned completely. The inhalation of CO can disrupt the supply of essential oxygen to the body's tissues--thus posing a major health risk. Those who suffer from cardiovascular dis- ease are most at risk. At high levels of exposure, CO can be fatal. Automobiles are the largest source of CO emissions. Lesser sources include industrial processes, non-transportation fuel combustion, and natural or manmade fires. Nitrogen oxides (NOX), including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), are mainly produced by fossil fuel combustion in urban areas. They play a major role in the formation of ozone, particulate matter, and acid rain. Short-term exposure, even less than three hours, to low levels of NO2 may lead to changes in lung function in individuals with pre-existing respiratory illnesses and can increase respiratory illnesses in children. Long-term exposure to NO2 may increase sus- ceptibility to respiratory infections and cause permanent alterations in the lung. Diesel-powered vehicles are a major contributor to NOX emissions. Hydrocarbons (HC) and other Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)--low-molecu- lar weight compounds cause unpleasant effects such as eye irritation, coughing and sneezing, drowsiness; heavy molecular-weight compounds may have carcinogenic or mutagenic ef- 8 CHAPTER 2: BENEFITS OF LEAD PHASE-OUT Figure 2.3 (continued) fects. Some hydrocarbons have a close affinity for diesel particulates and may contribute to lung disease. Ozone (O3) is a highly reactive gas, formed by the reaction of VOCs and NOX in the pres- ence of heat and sunlight. Ozone can cause a range of acute health effects including eye, nose and throat irritation, chest discomfort, coughing and headaches. Children who are active outdoors when ozone levels are high are most at risk. Ozone also affects vegetation and ecosystems, decreasing yields of commercial crops and plantations and lowering the aesthetic value of national parks. Non-health Impacts--While health impacts are no doubt the most compelling reason to take action, non-health costs of pollution are also significant. These costs include those stem- ming from congestion and loss of productivity, and damage to ecosystems and physical infrastructure. Transboundary and global impacts include acid rain, global warming, and damage to stratospheric ozone. Green House Gases--Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result from human activities. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water va- por, carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide, and ozone. Very powerful greenhouse gases that are not naturally occurring include hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a variety of industrial processes. Table 2.3 shows that use of catalytic con- verters can reduce emissions of CO, VOC, NOX and CH4 by 5 to 10 times compared to a well "tuned-up" car without a catalytic converter. Table 2.3 Reduction in Gas Emissions in Vehicles Indoor air pollution is also a potential or with or without Catalytic Converters real problem in many urban households. In- without c.c. with c.c. door air pollutants are recognized as a potential source of health risks to exposed populations "well tuned-up" throughout the world. Problems vary widely in CO (gm/km) 42.67 6.86 industrialized and non-industrialized settings. In VOCs (gm/km) 5.62 0.67 rural environments exposure to emissions from biomass burning for cooking or heating is he CH (gm/km) 0.19 0.04 4 main problem. In urban areas such pollution NO (gm/km) 2.70 0.52 can originate from cooking or heating, and be X worsened by poor ventilation. Epidemiological Source: Eleodoro Mayorga Alba (2001) 9 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES studies have indicated that women and children Economic--facilitationofregionaltradeand who spend large portions of the day in the home cooperation, larger markets and economies are often exposed to high levels of pollutants of scale; there. In addition, the location of the home is Security of supplies--fuel of a suitable qual- a major determinant of total exposure. Poor ity can be sourced from a range of markets/ outdoor pollution also increases indoor air suppliers; pollution levels. Facilitatecapacitybuilding--knowledgeand skills enhancement will be increased through wide access to technical expertise; and 2.6 Other benefits Environmental--joint implementation of environmental standards with neighboring Improved fuel quality to standards similar or countries in the region. equal to that used by other countries in the region will have important economic benefits: 10 3 CHAPTER Potential cost advantages and disadvantages in lead phase-out T his section discusses a number of po- and Premium unleaded was US$ 315 to tential costs impacts that could US$ 317/barrel. Since a barrel is approx potentially arise from leaded gasoline 162.75 liters ULG is cheaper by US$ phase-out although as shown below in 0.012/liter in this example. many cases the various cost factors are In the Gasoline International Market, FOB favorable to the case for leaded gaso- NEW Premium ULG was US$ 303 per line phase-out, or very minor. US gallon compared to FOB Medium leaded (0.15g/liter of lead) was US$ 310.6 per US gallon. ULG is cheaper by 3.1 Fuel prices ­ ULG is cheaper in US $0.043/liter in this example. international markets Fuel price quotations are stated as CIF (cost, Lead is harmful to human health and does not insurance and freight)--i.e. where usually the occur naturally in gasoline. But lead has tradi- bidder would quote the product CIF meaning tionally been used in gasoline since the early that they would be prepared to sell the fuel at 1920s as it is the cheapest means of increas- the price including, cost of fuel, freight and in- ing octane level. It also protected exhaust valve surance to bring the goods to the named port seats in older vehicles that were designed to of destination e.g. CIF Djibouti. operate on leaded gasoline. Both of these re- Given that Ethiopia purchases around 188M quirements can now be met by use of ULG liters of fuel per year, the foreign exchange which has additional, significant health benefits saving to the country in purchasing ULG, com- to the population at large (EPA, 1996; Chev- pared to the leaded gasoline used in the ron, 1990; Shell; 1990). examples, would vary between US$ 2.26M Since around 85% of the world's gasoline and US$ 8.08M per year. This would sales are now ULG, ULG is almost always be a major potential foreign exchange cheaper to purchase on world markets. saving. For example, prices of gasoline (leaded and ULG) varied as follows recently in selected in- ternational markets: Barges FOB Rotterdam for 5 days ending Jan 31, 20032 ): Premium leaded gasoline 2 According to the January 2003 edition of Platt's (0.15g/l) was US$ 314 ­ US$ 319/ barrel "Oilgram Price Report" 11 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES 3.2 Change-over costs vehicles (with soft valve seats) may experience some problems as described above. Some With a single grade3 of gasoline (now 91 RON) models of pre-1980 European car have soft it is a straightforward matter to convert to ULG. valve seats. Lead, in addition to boosting oc- After stopping leaded gasoline imports, after a tane rating, also acts as a valve lubricant and suitable transition period in which all signifi- prevents wear in engines with soft valve seats. cant traces of lead are removed, a switch to The chief concern in the past that has now ULG can immediately take place with no in- largely been disproved has been the possibility frastructure costs or transition issues. of exhaust valve seat recession particularly when What is the length of a suitable transition engines with soft valve seats are operated on period? This would be best determined by in- ULG. As Ethiopia's vehicle fleet has many older dustry but is believed to require three rotations vehicles, the possible extent of vehicles that of gasoline in which all gasoline is flushed out may have soft valve seats needs to be consid- and replaced each time by a new ULG load. In ered. But there is almost no reliable data on remote, up country locations one rotation would the age structure of the vehicle fleet or their take around one or more months. Hence, a propensity to have soft-valve seats transition period of around six months would At present the in-use Ethiopian vehicle fleet seem appropriate for tanks at Ethiopia's 493 is estimated by the Ethiopian Road Transport petrol stations. authority to be 130,0004 vehicles after a re- In addition, the government has 12 strate- cent review. Approximately 65% of the in-use gic fuel depots (for war, emergency) with a total fleet or 85,000 vehicles are estimated to use capacity of 225M liters. The majority of the gasoline. These vehicles are mainly cars or used capacity of these strategic depots is allocated for personal transport. It is estimated that some to diesel fuel and not gasoline. Some of this 35% of cars are older than 20 to 23 years (i.e. gasoline fuel in these up-country depots may pre-1980). The balance of the in-use fleet of have to be transported back to Addis Ababa to 45,000 vehicles consists of commercial vehicles where it will be consumed at a small additional which use diesel fuel. cost. A program to flush the relevant strategic depots and other industry-owned depots would need to be planned but would not involve any 3 Prior to the new gasoline specification being in- additional cost. troduced in the first half of 2003, there was only Overall, a carefully planned changeover to a regular grade of gasoline with 87RON. The new ULG could be achieved with no significant ex- specification that was brought into law in early tra cost being incurred. 2003 provides for both regular and premium gaso- line, and leaded and unleaded types. In Ethiopia by July 1, 2003 the gasoline imported into Ethio- pia will all be unleaded regular gasoline with around 3.3 Suitability of Older Vehicles 90 to 91RON. with Soft Valve Seats to Use ULG 4 This is some 65% of the registered vehicle totals. Note that these data are very different to that While generally all vehicles manufactured world- reported by Raynor (2002) which stated that Ethiopia's car fleet was 43,900 vehicles and its wide since 1980 are able to use ULG without commercial vehicle fleet was 30,400 vehicles engine damage there was concern that older giving a total of 74,300 vehicles. 12 CHAPTER 3: POTENTIAL COST ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF LEAD PHASE-OUT In the USA in 1970, about a third of cars spark plug life, increase the interval between had valves seats made of soft metals. It could oil changes and extend exhaust system and be assumed that less than a third of vehicles muffler life. These findings have been also con- manufactured between 1970 and 1980 had soft firmed by US-EPA (1985). valve seats. For the purposes of this report it That is, recent international experience has has been assumed that a fifth of vehicles older confirmed that the potential damage to be at than 20 years in Ethiopia may have soft valve worst, a minor issue and to the extent that the seats. Applying this to the 35% of vehicles older problem exists, is able to be completely resolved than 20 years gives an estimate of around seven by the addition of appropriate (lubricant) addi- percent of Ethiopia's car fleet that may have tives to the fuel. soft valve seats. Finally, many countries around the world While engines tend to be continually rebuilt, with older car fleets similar to those in SSA some older vehicles may have had their engine countries have recently phased-out leaded gaso- replaced by an imported Japanese or other en- line without use of lead-substitute additives in gine; hence, the estimate of seven percent is ULG (e.g. Colombia, Honduras, Bolivia, and thought to be on the high side. Guatemala) and no problems have been re- But it appears that in the past, too much ported. lead has been added to gasoline for the pur- Participants from the Ethiopia workshop poses of lubrication ­ only some 0.02gm/liter considered that valve seat recession was a non are needed for lubrication purposes. That is, issue in the context of Ethiopia. Hence, no fur- even in older cars with soft valve seats the ther action on this subject was recommended. amount of lead required is small. Only every fourth or fifth tank need be leaded (Shell Sci- ence and Technology). 3.4 Conclusion But studies by US-EPA found that the theo- retical problem of valve seat recession that could It is concluded that there are no significant costs occur if soft-valve seat engines use ULG is un- involved in changeover to ULG. In summary, likely to occur. Under laboratory test conditions, it was found that some five hours of driving at A switch to ULG will lead to significant for- 100km/hr would be required to cause the prob- eign exchange savings; lem to start to occur and then the (old) car is Changeover costs are expected to be neg- likely to fail from some other problem. ligible; Chevron (1990), a US Oil Company, has The impact of ULG on engines with soft concluded that all typical US passenger cars valve seats is expected to be insignificant and light-duty trucks are safe from valve reces- and no additives to lubricate soft-valve seats sion when operated on ULG. Weaver (1996) are required; and "...concluded that much of the concern about Reduced maintenance costs for cars are valve seat recession in normal use has been expected. misdirected and exaggerated". Radian (1994) concluded that reducing lead in gasoline is a win-win action as it will extend 13 4 CHAPTER Priority issues and recommendations for leaded gasoline phase-out T he discussion of overall benefits (Chap- Upgradingthequalityofvehicleimports ter 2) and costs (Chapter 3) of the and emission controls; phase-out of leaded gasoline shows that Establishing baseline inventories of key the benefits are likely to greatly exceed pollutants and health effects; and the costs which are virtually nil or ac- Developing an appropriate public infor- tually in favor of the leaded gasoline mation or awareness campaign. phase-out decision. The Government of Ethiopia has already The issues involved in leaded gasoline phase- shown foresight and promulgated new standards out and air quality improvement involve many for gasoline including ULG. As of July 1, 2003, groups in society and consequently it is recom- only ULG will be imported into Ethiopia. What mended that: remains to be done is to announce the phase- out date to consumers once all traces of lead Recommendation 2 ­ The Cabinet of the are flushed out of the distribution system. Other Government of Ethiopia commits to estab- actions such as those that improve the quality lishing a multi-sectoral stakeholder group of other fuels are also required. by end 2003 consisting of senior members It is therefore recommended that: of government agencies, the oil industry, and civil society including Non-Government Recommendation 1 ­ The Cabinet of the Organizations (NGOs) and consumer groups Government of Ethiopia immediately an- for a period of at least three years. The nounces to consumers that by the beginning Ethiopian EPA, Ministry of Health and Min- of 2004 leaded gasoline will be completely istry of Trade and Industry would have lead phased-out at that time, and instead a single roles in its implementation. Further details grade of ULG will be supplied to the mar- of the role of individual organizations are ket. made in Chapter 5. This multi-stakeholder As demonstrated in this report, the group would oversee implementation of the phase-out of leaded gasoline is but a first public awareness activities and provide feed- step in developing a more comprehensive back and advice to implementation approach to air quality management which agencies. A proposed draft mandate for this would include actions on: group is included in Chapte 9 ­ Annex C. Improving fuel quality and developing The benefits from a more comprehensive new fuel specifications; approach to air quality management are ex- 15 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES pected to be significant and it is therefore rec- Recommendation 4 ­ EPE immediately ommended that: conduct a cost-benefit analysis to examine the appropriate limits for benzene and aro- Recommendation 3 ­ The Cabinet of the matics and that the gasoline standard be Government of Ethiopia commits to devel- modified accordingly. oping a more comprehensive approach to air quality management by end 2003 based Diesel and other fuel specifications are also on the Terms of Reference (ToR) described in need of updating. In Ethiopia at present the in Chapter 10 ­ Annex D and recom- standard for sulfur content in diesel fuel is 1% mended action plan set out in Table 5.1. by weight or 1,000 ppm (actual average is Ethiopian EPA would have the lead role. 0.85% or 8,500ppm). This is probably due to Middle East Refineries processing high sulfur These first three recommendations are con- crudes. Most developed and many developing sidered fundamental or key recommendations. countries have specified or are considering low- A series of important associated recommen- ering the maximum permitted sulfur levels in dations that flow from the above are presented diesel fuel to 500ppm or lower. below. Except where indicated the recom- Even though there are at present no mea- mended actions below are believed to be cost surements of air quality, as sulfur is a major neutral or favorable to the lead phase-out deci- contributor to smoke and PM emissions from sion (i.e. save money). buses and other commercial vehicles, it would appear that it would be highly beneficial to reduce sulfur content in diesel fuel. As Ethio- 4.1 Fuel specifications pia is an oil importing country it may be able and fuel quality to source low sulfur diesel fuel on world mar- kets for no additional cost. At the workshop Ethiopia's present gasoline fuel specifications held in Addis Ababa on June 12­13, 2003 it (contained in Annex A) have recently been up- was considered that lower sulfur diesel fuel is dated and generally considered appropriate for required but the cost-effectiveness of moving the present. A remaining concern is that there to lower sulfur fuel and the timetable for imple- is no control of benzene and aromatics ­ it would mentation needs further study. be desirable that the standards be revised to Even though there is an absence of com- contain limits for these compounds. In the June prehensive measurements of air quality or the workshops, the Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise source of emissions it is known that Ethiopia's (EPE) expressed their view that proceeding to buses and trucks are gross polluters of PM and control limits for benzene and aromatics should black smoke. be based on a cost-benefit analysis and this study As a first step, therefore, it is recommend should be commenced as soon as possible. In that: the short to medium term, it would be desir- able that fuel quality standards be set on a Recommendation 5 ­ Ethiopia's Quality regional basis. and Standards Authority commit to lower- Therefore, it is recommend that: ing the sulfur content in diesel fuel. After detailed study of the cost-effectiveness 16 CHAPTER 4: PRIORITY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR LEADED GASOLINE PHASE-OUT of moving to lower sulfur diesel, it will pro- between 5 and 10 years. As the source of most pose the target sulfur levels and associated vehicles would be Europe most would be timetable. equipped with functioning catalytic converters when they enter the country. At present, these To support the leaded gasoline phase-out catalytic converters are left intact while oper- decision and program for overall fuel quality ating in Ethiopia on today's leaded gasoline. improvement, it is recommended that: They are therefore destroyed in-use by the lead additive. Recommendation 6 ­ Ethiopia's Quality As the Ethiopian vehicle market is price- and Standards Authority should develop ap- sensitive5 there appears to be an exhibited propriate revised specifications for diesel preference for older vehicle imports (towards fuel and other fuels. Ideally, these should 10 years old rather than five years) with most be developed on a regional or sub-regional likely poorer performance in terms of emis- basis. sions. While significant benefits are to be derived The quality of fuel sold into the market has from the use of ULG on its own, even greater been an issue in the past. Ethiopia's Quality benefits to air quality and public health will be and Standards Authority does not presently have incurred through the reduction of other emis- the power to enforce the in-market fuel qual- sions by the mandatory use of catalytic ity. One mechanism may be for the Quality converters in cars. It is therefore recommended and Standards Authority to contract an inde- that: pendent, capable institution to monitor the quality of fuels sold in the market. An alterna- Recommendation 8 ­ All cars imported tive mechanism may be for a new institution to into Ethiopia from January 1, 2004 be fit- be established to carry out this in-market qual- ted with a functioning catalytic converter ity compliance. It is therefore recommended and that this is to be certified by the ex- that: porter in the country of origin, and the importer in Ethiopia prior to the vehicle Recommendation 7­TheEthiopianGov- being registered for on road use in Ethio- ernment should establish an appropriate pia. mechanism to monitor the quality of fuels sold in the market. 5 The tax rates are the same for both new and im- 4.2 Vehicle imports ported vehicles. When used cars are imported, a and emission controls depreciation discount of 10% per year for a maxi- mum period of three years, (30% maximum for 3 years or more) is allowed on the customs-de- As for many other developing countries, Ethio- termined value of the vehicle, not on the purchase pia relies on the import of second hand vehicles price. There is no restriction on imports based to supply its vehicle markets. New vehicles are on the age of vehicles. The tax rates are: 40% also imported but have a minor role. duty plus up to 50% excise tax, 15% Value-added tax and 5% bank charges. The major advantage Second hand vehicles have typically already of importing used cars comes from the low price done significant mileage and are usually aged for second hand cars in Europe and elsewhere. 17 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Recommendation 9 ­ Ethiopian Road 4.3 Base line studies of emissions Transport Authority should not register an & health impacts & strengthening imported vehicle without these two certifi- the environmental legislative cations being present. framework At present, there are no regulations gov- Given a decision to phase-out leaded gasoline erning the quality of imported new or second it is recommended that: hand vehicles, their age or the extent of their emissions. Ethiopia's present system of reliance Recommendation 12 ­ In order to cre- on second hand imports while having many ben- ate a suitable base-line to measure the efits needs to be adjusted to ensure that over benefits of the lead phase-out decision, sta- time, the quality and level of technology (which tistically valid measurements of blood level with fuel quality governs emission levels in new lead in currently vulnerable groups (e.g. traf- vehicles) in imported vehicles continue to im- fic policemen, school children etc) and a prove. suitable control group, should be carried out in Addis Ababa. The responsible agency Recommendation 10 ­ It is recom- is the Ministry of Health. mended that in the short term the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development Prior to designing other interventions to re- structure taxes on imported vehicles so as duce other pollutants initial base line, studies to favor younger, less-polluting vehicles. For to establish an initial emissions inventory and gasoline-powered vehicles these should have the likely severity of health impacts of each pol- working catalytic converters. lutant will need to be developed. They will require technical assistance which may be able There is no effective inspection and main- to be provided by the World Bank, the United tenance (I/M) system for in-use vehicles at Nations Environment Program (UNEP) or other present in Ethiopia. It is recommended that: donors. The estimated cost of this activity is US$ 100,000. It is recommended that: Recommendation 11 ­ In the medium term (2 to 4 years) the effectiveness of the Recommendation 13 ­ An emissions in- existing system of I/M be investigated and ventory from mobile and other sources be options to improve the I/M system be de- developed by the Ethiopian Environmental veloped and analyzed to reduce emissions Protection Authority. The following pollut- from in-use vehicles. A traditional I/M sys- ants should be targeted at first with both tem may be difficult to sustain due to lack ambient and roadside measurements con- of capacity--an appropriate system may ducted at a small range of representative consist of random checking of gross pol- sites in Addis Ababa: luters. The responsible agencies are the Ethiopian Environmental Protection Author- o PM2.5 ity and the Road Transport Authority. o CO o HC and o NOX 18 CHAPTER 4: PRIORITY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR LEADED GASOLINE PHASE-OUT The main agency responsible would be the the rest of the world). There is also the need to Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority justify the proposed action plan to the public. (EPA). The estimated cost of this activity is US$ It would be desirable that the public have infor- 500,000. mation on the actions other sub-Saharan In the medium term, EPA will require tech- countries have taken to phase out leaded gaso- nical assistance and training to establish a line and its implications. functioning, embryonic monitoring system and Initial visits to Ethiopia indicate that there this may be able to be provided by the World is also a general lack of information on un- Bank and/or the United Nations Environment leaded at the government level and there are Program (UNEP). The World Bank will aim to some public impressions, myths and miscon- facilitate Regional Cooperation in SSA to ceptions about the negative effects of lead on achieve a harmonized approach to air quality vehicles, the effect of unleaded fuel on vehicles monitoring possibly on a sub-regional basis. as well as a lack of knowledge on the role of As part of a strengthened environmental the catalytic converter, and the health effects monitoring framework that is being studied by of lead on adults and children. the Ethiopian EPA at present there is a need Discussions also revealed that it is the duty for appropriate laws to control emissions from of the Government to communicate on the posi- mobile and stationary sources. To assist in the tive move it is taking in order to get the Public enforcement of these laws, on-going compli- to support the initiative. ance monitoring and additional strengthening Lessons show that building the capacity in of enforcement capacity are required. It is rec- the community is a slow process but confidence ommended that: can be built eventually. Confident and well in- formed communities enhances understanding Recommendation 14 ­ As an integral of health risks, allays myths and misperceptions. part of a strengthened environmental moni- As community awareness is enhanced they can toring framework for Ethiopia, Ethiopian be expected to start to advocate for improved EPA establish an appropriate legal basis to air quality and the phase out of lead from fuel. measure and ensure compliance of emis- The decision to phase out the use of leaded sions from mobile and stationary sources gasoline and subsequent actions to adopt a more with appropriate standards. comprehensive approach will be supported by a well designed approach to public awareness rising, therefore, it is recommended that: 4.4 Public Awareness Campaign Recommendation 15 ­ a public aware- The public needs to be empowered through ness campaign, designed to inform the information and education to advocate for and public, government officials, industry and accept unleaded gasoline as a positive factor others, be developed as an integral com- as well as to address potential concerns of the ponent of the decision to phase-out the use users. Information is required for stakeholders of leaded gasoline and of the subsequent to understand the details such as effect on ve- actions to improve air quality on a more hicles, health and environment and fuel comprehensive basis. The recommended specifications. It is also important to inform the multi-sector stakeholder group would be public what others are doing (alignment with overseeing this activity although it is envis- 19 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES aged that the Environment Protection Au- the public awareness activity to support the lead thority and Ministry of Health could have a phase-out decision and associated awareness role as a technical secretariat certainly at rising is expected to be $100,000 in the first the commencement of the campaign. year of implementation with a funding com- mitment of $50,000/year allocated for The broad recommended actions that cor- subsequent years. This funding would be addi- respond to this recommendation are shown in tional and would not include relevant budgets Table 5.1 of the next chapter. However, in of industry, government agencies etc for simi- Chapter 6 these recommended actions are ex- lar activities. A three-year program of public panded with a detailed but indicative public awareness rising is the minimum that should awareness plan that can be expected to be be contemplated. modified during implementation. The cost of 20 5 CHAPTER Action Plan to phase out leaded gasoline and next steps T he recommended actions presented in management in Addis Ababa and other urban Chapter 4 together form the basis of areas, starting with the leaded gasoline phase- an Action Plan (Table 5.1) that would out decision. move Ethiopia towards a more inte- grated approach to air quality Table 5.1 Action Plan for leaded gasoline phase-out and next steps Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Recommended Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) 1. The Cabinet of the Gov- ernment of Ethiopia immediately announces to consumers that by the beginning of 2004 that leaded gasoline will be completely phased-out at that time, and instead a single grade of ULG will be supplied to the market. 2. Ethiopian Cabinet com- mits to establishing a multi-sectoral stake- holder group by end 2003 consisting of se- nior members of government agencies, the oil industry, and civil society including Non- 21 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 5.1 (continued) Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Recommended Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) Government Organiza- tions (NGOs) and consumer groups. This group should be estab- lished for a period of at least three years. 3. Ethiopian Cabinet com- mits to developing a more comprehensive approach to air quality management by end 2003 based on the Terms of Reference (ToR) described in An- nex C. Fuel specifications and fuel quality 4. EPE immediately con- ducts a cost-benefit analysis to examine the appropriate limits for benzene and aromatics and to modify the gasoline standard accordingly. 5. Ethiopia's Quality and Standards Authority commits to lowering the sulfur content in diesel fuel. After detailed study of the cost-effectiveness of moving to lower sul- fur diesel, it will propose the target sulfur levels and associated timetable. 22 CHAPTER 5: ACTION PLAN TO PHASE OUT LEADED GASOLINE AND NEXT STEPS Table 5.1 (continued) Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Recommended Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) 6. Ethiopia's Quality and Standards Authority should develop appropri- ate revised specifications for diesel fuel and other fuels. Ideally, these should be developed on a regional or sub-re- gional basis. 7. The Ethiopian Govern- ment should establish an appropriate mechanism to monitor the quality of fuels sold in the market. Vehicle imports and emission controls 8. All cars imported into Ethiopia from January 1, 2004 are required to be fitted with a functioning catalytic converter. This is certified by the ex- porter in the country of origin, and the importer in Ethiopia prior to the vehicle being registered for on road use in Ethiopia. 9. The Ethiopian Road Transport Authority re- fuses to register an imported vehicle without sighting the export and import documents that certifies a functioning 23 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 5.1 (continued) Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Recommended Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) catalytic converter is present. 10. The Ministry of Finance and Economic Develop- ment should structure taxes on imported ve- hicles so as to favor younger, less-polluting vehicles. For gasoline- powered vehicles these should have working catalytic converters. 11. Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority and the Road Transport Authority should study the effectiveness of the existing system of I/M and develop and analyze options to improve the I/M system in order to reduce emissions from in-use vehicles. A tradi- tional I/M system may be difficult to sustain due to lack of capacity-- an appropriate system may consist of random checking of gross pollut- ers. 24 CHAPTER 5: ACTION PLAN TO PHASE OUT LEADED GASOLINE AND NEXT STEPS Table 5.1 (continued) Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Recommended Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) Base line studies of emissions and health impacts & strengthening the environmental legis- lative framework 12. Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority and Ministry of Health de- velop a suitable base-line to measure the benefits of the lead phase-out decision with statistically valid mea- surements of blood level lead in vulnerable groups and a suitable control group in Addis Ababa. Cost: US$100,000. 13. Sources of technical Ethiopian Environmental The World Bank facili- assistance for prepara- Protection Authority pre- tates Regional tion of the emissions pares an appropriate Cooperation in SSA to inventory should be con- emissions inventory achieve a harmonized sidered by the Ethiopian from mobile and other approach to air quality Environmental Protec- sources. The following monitoring possibly on a tion Authority. These pollutants should be sub-regional basis. sources could include targeted: PM2.5; CO; the World Bank and/or HC; and NO . X the United Nations Cost: US$500,000. Environment Program (UNEP). 25 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 5.1 (continued) Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Recommended Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) 14. As part of a strength- ened environmental monitoring framework for Ethiopia, Ethiopian EPA establish as an appropriate legal basis to measure and ensure compliance of emissions from mobile and station- ary sources with appropriate standards. Public awareness campaign 15. Ethiopian Cabinet com- On-going consultation On-going consultation mits to developing a and activities as de- and activities as de- comprehensive approach scribed in Chapter 6 scribed in Chapter 6 to public awareness ris- (Table 6.1). (Table 6.1). Cost: US$ ing as further amplified Cost: Year 1: US$ 50,000/ year subse- in Chapter 6. 100,0006 . quently. 16 Identify sources of fund- ing for the public awareness activity and develop initial materials as discussed in Chapter 6 (Table 6.1). 6 This funding would be additional and would not include relevant budgets of industry, government agencies, etc. for similar activities. 26 6 CHAPTER Indicative Public Awareness Campaign T his section of the report and action plan 9 ­ Annex C) would take responsibility for over- amplifies the details of what might con- seeing the development and implementation stitute an appropriate approach to of an appropriate public awareness campaign. developing a public awareness cam- This stakeholder group would need funding and paign that is suitable for Ethiopia. Once the technical support of a secretariat--it is en- a commitment is made to the phase- visaged that the Ethiopian Environment out of lead in gasoline and to the need for a Protection Authority and Ministry of Health public awareness campaign, the details of the could play this role on a joint basis initially. campaign can be refined to match prevailing As discussed in Chapter 4 and summarized circumstances and other proposed sub-regional in Table 5.1, the cost of the public awareness programs such as that proposed by UNEP. activity to support the lead phase-out decision Creating opportunities for the participation and associated awareness rising is expected to of the public in the implementation of national be $100,0007 in the first year with a funding action plans (through information gathering and commitment of $50,000/year allocated for sub- dissemination) to phase out leaded fuel in oil sequent years. A three-year program of public importing countries such as Ethiopia will help awareness rising is the minimum that should to provide information and build capacity on be contemplated. the health risks, legislation, partnership oppor- tunities with various stakeholders and advocacy needed for its success. 6.1 Objectives and outputs This will in turn build capacity at com- munity level to engage in local initiatives The objectives of a suitable public awareness and interventions and to be part of a consulta- campaign are: tive group that would feed into policy and decision making in the implementation of the To sensitize and create awareness of the lead phase-out plan and air quality manage- public on the change from leaded fuel to ment plans. ULG, the health risks of car generated air It is envisaged that once a decision is made pollution and exposure to leaded gasoline, by Ethiopian Cabinet to phase-out leaded gaso- line and to commit to other actions in the Action Plan (Table 5.1), then the recommended multi- 7 This funding would be additional and would not sectoral stakeholder group (A proposed draft include relevant budgets of industry, government mandate for this group is included in Chapter agencies etc for similar activities. 27 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES thus exposing them to the benefits to health, The mass media (journalists); safety and environment. Pump attendants and dealers; To assist the public to understand that Government Institutions; NGOs; Civil so- unleaded gasoline will not adversely ciety; Higher learning institutions; affect vehicle performance and to empower Car importers; Fleet owner Organizations; the public to enable them participate in Taxi Drivers Association; Garage Associa- initiatives/interventions towards the preven- tions; and tion and management of air pollution Development Partners. and the implementation of a lead phase- out plan. Materials and messages for the campaign The desired outputs are: It is recommended that materials for the information campaign be developed and Enhancedunderstandingbycivilsocietyand shared on a regional basis in order to reduce the creation of a well-informed public on costs and ensure uniformity. It should be com- the health risks of exposure to lead and munity friendly, present facts and focus on benefits of the phase out plan for effective culture. decision-making; Information should be targeted to different Public acceptance of the new fuel as a groups such as decision makers as well as the positive factor that improves air quality general public. and thereby protects public health is en- Initially messages for the campaign should sured; focus on health, environment and economic Civil society and local communities are in- benefits of unleaded gasoline. volved in the phase-out plan and participating in initiatives to improve air quality management and control; and 6.3 Role of Civil society, Education materials for priority issues and media and other partners messages for the lead phase-out and air quality public education awareness strategy The involvement of the following government are developed/adapted. institutions is essential to ensure the success of a public awareness campaign: 6.2 Target audience Ethiopian Ministry of Trade and Industry; Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise; The target audience of the proposed public EthiopianEnvironmentalProtectionAuthor- awareness campaign would include: ity; Ethiopian Quality and Standards Author- Motorists and the general public; ity; Mechanics/garages; Ethiopian Road Transport Authority; Local Communities and Schools (Parents/ Ministry of Health; School children); Ministry of Education; Government officials and consultants; Ministry of Information; and Parliamentarians and other policy makers; Chamber of Commerce. 28 CHAPTER 6: INDICATIVE PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGN The following stakeholders shown in Table 6.4 Emerging issues 6.1 need to be closely involved for informa- tion sharing and support. The following emerging issues provide chal- lenges and opportunities for developing an Table 6.1 Role of Civil society, media and other partners Stakeholder Role Detail Civil Society- NGO's, Associations Involvement/participation of local Issues to include: and Networks coalition NGO's and Networks such as Africaclean, in Informa- The elimination of lead from tion Gathering and Dissemination gasoline as the first step to im- to facilitate broad consensus prove air quality in the SSA (political and social) and accep- Dispelling the myths and telling tance among stakeholders and the facts about lead in fuel (and the public. blood lead levels), that all cars Provide information, knowledge can use unleaded fuel. and expertise and sensitize during No extra cost and cheaper on consultations to create awareness the world market on health risks of car-generated pollution, lead in fuel, impacts of That average lead content is al- the phase-out and other success- ready reduced (0.01-0.09g/l) ful phase-out programs. That safe alternatives to lead are Advocacy ­ lobbying govern- available ments to act and monitoring Negative impacts of urban air compliance according to national pollution especially lead and PM action plans regarding fuel specs, on health. quality enforcement and pricing. Vehicle imports and mainte- Participate in group training nance (In Ethiopia at least 35% of gasoline-powered vehicles are older than 20 years.) Participation in Local initiatives and capacity building on lead phase-out issues. Improved Health & environment Decreased maintenance cost of vehicle Better engine performance 29 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 6.1 (continued) Stakeholder Role Detail Child Health and Environment Broad message declarations by government to phase out lead Support statements from devel- opment partner The Media Facilitating a national media outreach This also includes specific targeting to generate demand for the unleaded for Addis Ababa and other major cit- fuel and support for the campaign. ies using little/group media for This includes a variety of communica- identified groups such as street tion channels for mass media (radio, groups/traders, mechanics, commer- TV, newspapers, leaflets and bill cial transport owners and operators, boards, press releases/conferences). gasoline pump attendants and schools. Participate in group training The Private Sector- Fuel transporters Advocacy and support. Participate in training, baseline stud- who are private owners, Haulage ies and other interventions. truck owners, Commercial Transport unions, Individuals Parents and Schools Advocacy. Participate in training through cur- riculum developed for teachers and related activities, focusing on child health issues. Research Institutions, University, Monitoring and baseline studies. Baseline surveys--on relevant be- Environmental protection Authority haviors such as usage of fuel, trends in fuel usage, issues of concern, blood lead levels and air quality. Funding for local initiatives, Emis- Development Partners-WHO, UNEP, Financial and technical support. sions monitoring, Air Quality World Bank Baseline studies and Information dis- semination. 30 CHAPTER 6: INDICATIVE PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGN Table 6.1 (continued) Stakeholder Role Detail Regulatory Agencies- Ethiopia's Provide technical support. Information dissemination and mate- Quality and Standards Authority, rials development. Ethiopian Road Transport Authority Government Ministries & agencies Set up multidisciplinary stakeholder To develop communication plan and for Health, Environment, Energy and steering committee on public informa- steer public awareness activities. Transport, Standards tion/ education. Participate in group training Oil marketing companies/ Provide financial and technical For awareness campaigns; Associations support. Research-Monitoring and baseline studies; Participation in consulta- tions; and Training programs for target groups. Parliament Legislation and advocacy. Vehicle import tax regulations, emis- Participate in group training sions and other regulations. appropriate public awareness campaign and en- help the public fully appreciate the issues couraging public participation: including that effects are likely to be mini- mal; The thinking that there might be price The concern about fuel quality and impli- differences or extra cost incurred by the cation of current RON Levels, fuel change to unleaded gasoline. The public specifications and public opinion after the needs to be assured that there is no extra change over if vehicles develop "normal" cost. This needs to be verified within the faults, etc; framework of the changes to the oil mar- The role and benefits of catalytic convert- keting arrangements anticipated after ers and how to maintain their correct October 2003; functioning; The need for education about the per- The need for discussion of options of other ceived effects of unleaded gasoline on old safe alternatives to lead as well as the ad- vehicles especially when at least a third vantages and disadvantages of each; of vehicles are over 20 years. The effect Information dissemination on the need to on the valve seat in older vehicles needs to minimize the health impacts of lead and be explained. It may be necessary to iden- other pollutants as well as impact on water tify specific models of vehicles that are likely quality to encourage prioritization of air to be adversely affected by unleaded gaso- quality measurements and assessments of line to afford a more scientific basis and blood lead levels. There is little informa- 31 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES tion on lead poisoning or any specific mea- 6.5 Indicative Public Awareness sure of the extent of the poisoning; Detailed Plan Benefits of unleaded gasoline to motor- ists: reduced health impacts, reduced The first part of the indicative public aware- maintenance; ness plan includes an evaluation (through Regulation on importers of old polluting baseline studies and available information) of vehicles; and the public's general level of awareness of the The need for information of both technical adverse effects of lead on health as well as the difficulties in phasing out lead and social level of concern and misconception about the implications to the public as well as assess- effects of ULG. The result of evaluation and ments of collaborative studies in countries monitoring activities will provide information that have phased out and those with high for the educational campaign scope (scale and levels of lead in gasoline. costs), message content and information to be developed and/or adapted from other sources. Table 6.2 Indicative Public Awareness Detailed Plan Recommended Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) The recommended actions Create multi-stakeholder Consultation on a quarterly Consultation on a quarterly are indicative and will be group to oversee imple- basis with representatives basis with representatives modified during implemen- mentation of the public of identified target groups. of identified target groups. tation. They flow from key awareness activities and overarching actions set out provide feedback for in Table 5.1. implementation agen- cies--identify main stakeholders and partners in air quality management and the lead phase-out activities. 32 CHAPTER 6: INDICATIVE PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGN Table 6.2 (continued) Recommended Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) Conduct a situational Conduct a baseline survey Monitor impact of the cam- analysis/survey and de- on relevant behaviors, pub- paign against indicators velop a database on lic perceptions on the health developed. available information/re- risks trends of usage of fu- search and evaluate els, perceptions on impacts public's general level of on vehicle fleet, fuel specs awareness of lead effects and quality and blood lead and air pollution. Develop levels. monitoring indicators and survey tools. US$ 10,000. Organize consultative Initiate mass commu- workshops to feed- nication and back information information dissemina- from the baseline re- tion program for search and to targeted groups based disseminate informa- on surveys, research, tion on the national available information action plan. and materials adapted. Organize showing of Assess audience needs video documentary and an indication of "Leaded Gasoline the preferred communica- silent threat "by the tion methods to Clean Air Initiative facilitate acceptance of (World Bank) in ma- the new fuel and to jor urban areas. dispel myths fears etc. Other available docu- mentaries on health impacts. 33 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 6.2 (continued) Recommended Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) Other available docu- Prepare ToR and issue mentaries on health contract for materials impacts. development and dis- Adapt posters and semination. materials developed Develop/adapt critically by the US-EPA important messages Organize workshop to pre-test and proceed adapt / develop mate- with mass production rials ­ prepare/adapt audio Coordinate with the visuals, flip charts, in- Ethiopian Ministry of formation fact sheets. Trade and Industry, Link specific messages and Health and other to identified target local regional and in- groups ternational agencies, /stakeholders. Committees/stake- holders on materials, and type of media to be used. Establish budget needs and timing. Develop a communication Use selected communi- Implementation of pub- plan for implementation cation channels under lic awareness including launching the mass and other media campaign in collabora- program at a forum, TV/ for specific target tion with stakeholders. Radio discussions on groups and the general Activities for public health and developmental public (Radio, TV, Bill- relations, advocacy effects caused by expo- boards, newspapers, and advertising sure to lead, and what to Information services Training talks, semi- do when changing to ULG. department, Flip nars and forums for charts, group discus- identifiable nationwide sions, audiovisuals, groups. Video documentary). Organize children' pro- grams in schools and on TV on hazards of leaded gasoline and benefits of unleaded gasoline. 34 CHAPTER 6: INDICATIVE PUBLIC AWARENESS CAMPAIGN Table 6.2 (continued) Recommended Year 1 Years 2 to 4 Actions Immediate (03/04) (04/05 to 06/07) Actively collaborate with local agencies and other organizations do- ing education and awareness programs, research, etc. on air quality management and leaded fuel phase- out (e.g. US-EPA, Alliance to End Child- hood Poisoning, Africaclean, UNEP, WHO). Create channels of com- Coordinate the set up Invite proposals for local munication for civil of resource centers initiatives/interventions to society input into policy with management op- promote general air quality and decision making tions (such as management issues and managed by local au- disseminate information on thorities in the phase-out. collaboration with civil society groups/NGO's) for implementation in the capital city and one other major urban cen- ter to facilitate information flow be- tween the community and other stakeholders. Elicit consensus on fu- ture use of the center which could be open for use as reference center 35 7 CHAPTER Annex A ­ Terms of Reference for Preparation of this Action Plan Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Improvement of the urban air quality and Phasing out of lead from gasoline in oil importing countries of Sub-Saharan Africa THE CASE OF ETHIOPIA TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR CONSULTANT SERVICES 7.1 Background of recommendations to eliminate lead additives from gasoline and to continue longer term ef- Following the agreement reached at the Dakar forts to improve the quality of air in their main Conference (June 2001) the ESMAP Program cities. has allocated funds for studies required for the In 2001, Ethiopia imported all of its petro- preparation and implementation of national leum products. Considering the prevailing price and sub-regional plans to eliminate lead addi- distortions, diesel is preferred by the majority tives from gasoline and to contribute in this way of car owners. The consumption of the fishing to the improvement of urban air quality in SSA artisan sector represents a significant percent- countries net importers of petroleum products. age of the total gasoline supplied to these These importing countries are confronted markets. with fewer difficulties to phase out lead from Ethiopia does not operate refineries. With gasoline than those operating national refiner- the separation of Eritrea, Ethiopia has become ies for the supply of their markets. The studies independent of the product supplied by the to be made will focus exclusively on the im- AZAB Refinery. The supply of petroleum prod- pacts to be expected from the change of ucts is achieved by the means of procurement products' quality only at the level of the con- operations that still considers the importation sumers. of leaded gasoline. Indeed, for Ethiopia, as well as for other countries that import directly petroleum prod- ucts, the studies should address the issues related 7.2 Objective to the consumer's preferences. The studies will be carried out at the same time of the setting The main aim of the consultant services hereby up of a multi-organization working team gath- requested is the formulation and implementa- ering the different Government agencies, the tion of a national plan for eliminating leaded oil companies and the organizations of the civil gasoline from the Ethiopian fuel market as well society that are interested by the formulation as the review of technical, environmental and 37 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES economic issues to be covered in the efforts of additives from gasoline, transition issues, a network of public and private entities that is evaluation of costs and benefits and prepa- joining efforts to improve the air quality in both ration of a preliminary proposal for its countries. financing. Proposal for the Terms of Reference and mandate of a multi-sectoral working team 7.3 Scope of Work to implement the air quality improvement plan. The consultant services will cover the follow- Development of the concept for a public ing topics: awareness campaign to inform on the health impacts of air pollutants starting by those The evaluation of the current and future from the use of leaded gasoline. Best prac- car fleet and the respective gasoline mar- tice campaign addressed to vehicle owners kets, including the fuel transportation, on possible measures to reduce air pollu- storage and distribution system(s). tions. The analysis of scenarios of the possible evolution of the car fleet and other gaso- line and motor fuels markets. 7.4 Duration of the Task Evaluation of the gasoline quality, octane grades and other specifications. Existing The expected net amount of time the consult- technical specs, typical imported gasoline(s) ant will dedicate to this task is estimated in 2.5 and proposed specifications. months to be developed during a maximum con- Possible problems of smuggling and prod- tractual duration of six months. ucts adulteration. The evaluation of the impacts of the lead and other atmospheric pollutants emissions 7.5 Consultant Qualifications from petroleum products. The identification of key stakeholders and The consultant should demonstrate international determination of their importance and re- experience in the preparation and implemen- spective roles. tation of programs for the elimination of lead Review of the legislation and regulatory from gasoline and related areas of work. He measures and assessment of possible should be familiar with the petroleum supply changes to reduce the air pollution (envi- procedures and markets of developing coun- ronmental regulations, vehicle importation tries. He should know the typical consumer rules, technical specifications of the issues to be resolved when changes are carried petroleum products, etc). Review of the out in their fuel supply institutional capacity to enforce regulations. Study of the impacts related to the replace- ment of the currently available gasoline(s) 7.6 Reports for the unleaded type and proposal to re- duce these impacts. The preparation of the proposed national study Formulation of a national plan to improve will involve the following reports: air quality starting by the elimination of lead 38 CHAPTER 7: ANNEX A Field visit: At an agreed time, the con- 7.7 Coordination and sultant will make a field visit to Ethiopia. Local Counterparts During this visit, the consultant will obtain from different stakeholders up to date in- The Ministry responsible for the energy sector formation and will have the opportunity to and the supply of petroleum products will di- test any preliminary recommendation to be rectly supervise the project administration and included in the proposed national plan. technical work. In principle The Minister will Inception Report: Three weeks after the nominate a local coordinator who will assure field visit, the consultant should present an the coordination of the parties concerned in inception report with the methodology that each country (petroleum companies, consum- will be applied and a work program of the ers, local civil society members, other activities to be undertaken. This report will government agencies, etc). The resident mis- be commented by the local government sion of the World Bank will support the counterparts and the World Bank. coordinator task in the organization of the field Preliminary Report: To be presented visits and the preparation of the workshops for after the field visit and not later than three the presentation of the consultant report. months after the field visit. The report will The consultant is encouraged to make use include the results and observations as well as much as possible of local experts for activi- as proposals and recommendations on the ties such as data collection and partial reports issues listed in the scope of work. This re- on consumer's interests. port will be first commented by the local In relation to contacts with the civil soci- counterparts and the World Bank and in ety, the consultant will liaise with the network an improved version will be presented in a of AFRICACLEAN and the Alliance for End- workshop to the different stakeholders. ing Childhood Lead Poisoning. Final Report:Aftertheworkshopthecon- sultant will be able to insert improvements and corrections and present its final report. Declaration of Dakar Regional Conference on the Phasing-out of Leaded Gasoline in Sub-Saharan Africa The participants from 25 sub-Saharan Afri- Considering: can countries, representing governments, industry and civil society, and from interna- The recommendations and resolutions of tional organizations attended the Regional WHO, WB and UNEP stating the high Conference on the Phasing-Out of Leaded priority of lead phase out worldwide, Gasoline (Dakar, June 26 ­ 28, 2001). 39 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Declaration of Dakar (continued) That surveys on blood lead levels in national and international oil compa- SSA city populations show that in many nies and representatives from the cases WHO guidelines are exceeded, automobile industry, to assist in the for- bringing in particular at risk children's mulation of a complete set of fuels development and intellectual perfor- technical specifications. mance. 5. Complete the sub-regional action plans That delays to start using unleaded gaso- within the next 12 months framing the line are precluding the introduction of respective national clean air programs. vehicles equipped with catalytic convert- 6. Request the oil supply chain operators ers and thus the development of urban to improve their production, storage and clean air policies in growing cities of SSA. distribution facilities in accordance with The support expressed by the oil indus- the target lead phase out frame. try and the NGO community in favor of 7. Request WHO, UNEP, WB and bilat- a prompt government action phasing out eral environmental agencies such as leaded gasoline. US-EPA to support SSA stakeholders in developing the capacity to implement Agree to: the lead phase out programs within air quality management. 1. Join efforts to accelerate the formula- 8. Develop an appropriate public informa- tion and implementation of programs tion campaign with an active to completely phase out leaded gaso- participation of NGOs community. line in all SSA countries as soon as 9. Request the WB and other international possible, latest by 2005. donor agencies to give a high priority 2. Recommend governments to reduce the to lead phase out in economic policy lead content in gasoline--currently 0.8 dialogues with the SSA governments g/l in most SSA countries--to average and to continue supporting required not more than 0.4 g/l by 2002 and to technical assistance programs and as- an average not more than 0.2 g/l by sisting in the financing of viable 2003. investments. 3. Encourage countries with independent 10. Request OAU and other regional orga- import facilities to accelerate their re- nizations (ECOWAS, WAEMU, spective lead phasing out programs. SADCC, CAEMU, etc.) to endorse the 4. Harmonize the gasoline norms in all sub- phasing out of leaded gasoline in their regional markets, in order to foster priority programs and to contribute to intra-regional trade and traffic; and re- the harmonization of standards and quest IPIECA, in collaboration with technical specifications. 40 8 CHAPTER Annex B: Overview of Ethiopian Petroleum Market The petroleum sector in Ethiopia is heavily con- (Affiliate of TotalFinaElf). There are also inde- trolled by the government. The Ethiopian pendent oil traders that may bid for the supply Petroleum Enterprise (EPE) is a State-enterprise contracts--the main ones are IPG (International operating under the auspices of the Ministry Petroleum Group) and Bakri. of Trade and Industry and has a key role. From January 2001 until January 2003, Since there are no operating refineries in Ethio- Ethiopia had been importing gasoline (87RON) pia, EPE conducts a tender every six months from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Al-Sinaiyah refin- for Ethiopia's fuel supplies. ery leaded gasoline. Until early 2003, in The main oil marketing companies operat- Ethiopia there was only regular gasoline with a ing in the Ethiopian retail market may tender specified minimum RON of 87 and maximum for these supply contracts. These companies lead content of 0.6gm/liter (See Table 8.1). are: Mobil Oil Ethiopia (and affiliate of Exxon Mobil Corporation), Shell Ethiopia8 (Affiliate of Royal Dutch Shell), and Total Ethiopia 8 Shell purchased Agip Ethiopia in 2001. Table 8.1 Specification of Regular Gasoline Required by Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise (Prior to mid 2003) Test Specification Test Method Research Octane Number (RON) Min 87 ASTM D2699 Density @ 15 Deg. C Report ASTM D1298 Distillation: 10% Volume. Deg. C Max. 070 50% Volume. Deg. C Max. 125 ASTM D86 90% Volume. Deg. C Max. 180 Final Boiling Point Deg. C Max. 210 Color Yellow/Orange Visual Appearance Total Sulphur @ Weight Max. 0.2 ASTM D1266 PEID Vapor Pressure @ 37.8 Deg. C (Kg/cm2) Max. 0.70 ASTM D323 41 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 8.1 (continued) Test Specification Test Method Existent Gum (mg/100 ml) Max. 4 ASTM D381 Oxidation Stability Induction Period Min. 240 ASTM D525 (Minutes) Lead Content (g/liter) Max. 0.6 ASTM D526 Copper Corrosion (3 hours @ 50 Deg. C) Max. No. 1 strip ASTM D130 Doctor Test Negative ASTM D235 Benzene (% Vol.) Max. 0.5 Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise (EPE) Since around 85% of the world's gasoline sales In one shipment it was 0.013g/l that is techni- are now ULG, ULG is almost always cheaper cally ULG. to purchase on world markets. Ethiopia's Quality and Standards Author- For example, in one market (Barges FOB ity while technically responsible for the standards Rotterdam for 5 days ending Jan 31, 20039 ): has no ability to carry out in-country checks of Premium leaded gasoline (0.15g/l) was US$ fuel quality. The country relies on a system of 314 ­ US$ 319/ barrel and Premium unleaded pre-shipment certification which by and large was US$ 315 to US$ 317/barrel. Since a barrel is satisfactory. However, a new gasoline speci- is approx 162.75 liters ULG is cheaper by fication was brought into law in early 2003. US$ 0.012/liter in this example. In the This set specifications for regular and premium Gasoline International Market, FOB NEW Pre- gasolines of unleaded and leaded types. As mium ULG was US$ 303 per US gallon shown in Table 8.3, the new regular unleaded compared to FOB Medium leaded (0.15g/liter gasoline specification raised the minimum RON of lead) was US$ 310.6 per US gallon. ULG to 91RON. is cheaper by US$ 0.043/liter in this ex- However, due to the existence of a trade ample. protocol between Sudan and Ethiopia, in early For this reason, in its recent supply con- 2003 the Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise (EPE) tract, Exxon Mobil imported ULG from the agreed to import some 10,000 tones/month Yanbu Al-Sinaiyah refinery and added gasoline of gasoline during 2003 from Sudan's to make a leaded gasoline that was required. Khartoum refinery that can produce 90RON As shown in Table 8.2, for the period between unleaded gasoline. This is around 85% of January 2001 and May 2002, for various ship- ments, the lead (Pb) content varied between <0.01 g/l to 0.05g/l although the official stan- 9 According to the January 2003 edition of Platt's dard specifies a maximum volume of 0.6g/liter. `Oilgram Price Report" 42 CHAPTER 8: ANNEX B Table 8.2 Lead Content for Gasoline Imports to Ethiopia, Jan 01­May 02 Sample RON Sulfur (Wt%) RVP at 37.80°C Lead Content Test dates Min 87 0.15 Kg/cm2 Max 0.7 (g/l) Max 0.6 4 JAN 01 87.3 0.01 0.63 0.05 11 JAN 01 86.0 0.03 0.65 0.09 5 FEB 01 86.0 0.03 0.64 0.09 23 FEB 01 86.3 0.04 0.61 0.05 7 MAR 01 86.5 0.08 0.65 0.09 31 MAR 01 86.4 0.03 0.65 0.07 22 APR 01 86.3 0.12 0.64 0.07 2 MAY 01 86.3 0.10 0.65 0.07 27 MAY 01 86.1 0.09 0.65 0.07 7 JUN 01 86.4 0.09 0.67 0.07 13 JUN 01 91.3 0.07 9.5PS1 0.02 24 JUN 01 86.4 0.06 0.66 0.07 19 JUL 01 86.1 0.05 0.60 0.07 6 AUG 01 86.3 0.05 0.63 0.07 12 AUG 01 86.2 0.04 0.57 0.07 20 AUG 01 86.3 0.02 0.66 0.07 8 SEP 01 86.5 0.05 0.65 0.07 17 SEP 01 86.3 0.05 0.64 0.07 30 SEP 01 86.3 0.05 0.66 0.07 10 OCT 01 87.9 0.06 0.67 <0.01 29 OCT 01 87.1 0.05 0.65 <0.01 13 NOV 01 86.5 0.04 0.66 0.07 22 NOV 01 86.2 0.05 0.66 0.07 5 DEC 01 86.2 0.02 0.63 0.07 20 DEC 01 86.2 0.01 0.64 0.07 18 JAN 02 86.3 0.03 0.65 0.07 24 FEB 02 86.1 0.05 0.62 0.07 4 MAR 02 86.4 0.07 0.64 0.07 20 MAP 02 86.2 0.07 0.66 0.07 19 APR 02 86.3 0.08 0.65 0.05 17 MAY 02 88.2 0.06 0.64 <0.01 4 MAY 02 86.1 0.07 0.66 0.05 Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise 43 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 8.3 Ethiopia's New Gasoline Specification (Early 2003) No Characteristics Requirements Test Method 1 Octane rating Premium Regular a) Research Octane Leaded 93 87 ES 636:2001 No (RON), min Unleaded 95 91 b) Motor Octane Leaded 83 77 ES 637:2001 No (MON), min Unleaded 85 81 2 Color Red Orange/ Yellow Annex A of spec 3 Density at 20°C, g/ml 0.705­0.74 ES 641:2001 4 Distillation (At vapor pressure of 54Kpa and at 101.3Kpa pressure (760 mm Hg)) a) Temperature, °C for 10% (by volume) evaporated, max. 70 50% (by volume) evaporated 77­121 90% (by volume) evaporated, max. 190 b) Final boiling points °C, max. 225 c) Residues, % (by volume) max. 2.0 5 Reid vapor pressure (RVP), Kpa, max 69 ES ISO 3007 :2001/ ES ISO 644 :2001 6 Lead content, Leaded 0.4 ES 640:2001 g Pb/l, max Unleaded 0.013 ES 645:2001 7 Oxidation Stability--induction Period, 240 ES 634:2001 minutes, min 8 Existent gum contents, mg/100ml, max 4 ES 627:2001 9 Sulphur content Leaded 0.15 ES 635:2001 Unleaded 0.10 10 Copper strip corrosion (3 h at 50°C), max 1 ES ISO 2160:2001 Source: Ethiopian Standard ES 624:2001 Ethiopia's gasoline consumption. Exxon Mobil oil products from the Middle East. This in ef- who in mid 2003 was again awarded the wider fect means that by July 1, 2003, Ethiopia's oil supply contract will provide the balance of gasoline will be entirely ULG at around 90 to the gasoline as ULG at 91RON as well as other 91RON. That is a slightly lower RON than the 44 CHAPTER 8: ANNEX B new specifications set out but higher than the and benefits of such a pipeline may be war- 87RON, minimum set in the former regular ranted. gasoline specification. Approximate market shares for the retail In 2002, fuel sales (retail and other) were sales of gasoline through Ethiopia's service sta- as described in Table 8.4. Diesel fuel sales domi- tions in 2002 were: nate and reflect the high proportion of commercial vehicles in the fleet (or alternatively, Mobil ­ 23.84% the relatively few cars). Shell ­ 31.85% EPE imports gasoline from Sudan directly Agip (now Shell) ­ 18.29% and transports it by truck to Addis Ababa where Total ­ 26.02% it is distributed around the country. Fuel im- ports sourced by EPE from other sources (e.g. Fuel prices are tightly controlled by government Middle East) enter the country through the port and have remained unchanged since early of Djibouti from where it is transported by truck 2002. to Addis Ababa from where it is then trans- There is believed to be an issue of mixing ported to up country depots and gasoline fuel kerosene with gasoline and diesel fuel but the stations for retail sales by the private oil mar- extent of this problem is unknown. keting companies. There are 493 gasoline Table 8.5 describes the price structure of stations (for retail sales) of which about half retail fuel prices for diesel and gasoline in Ethio- are in Addis Ababa. In addition, the govern- pia. In order to maintain prices the government ment has 12 strategic fuel depots (for war, requires that retailers absorb costs within their emergency) with a total capacity of 225M li- distributors' margin10. At January 2003, the ters. The majority of the capacity of these price was Birr 440/liter or about US$ 0.50/ strategic depots is allocated to diesel fuel and liter. not gasoline. It is understood that the Ethiopian Govern- The government continues to consider the ment has decided to open the oil distribution possible option of developing an oil products and marketing industry to other companies. The pipeline between Djibouti and Addis Ababa. This Ministry of Trade and Industry announced in appears to be potentially beneficial but would April 2002, that they will not continue the be very high cost. A feasibility study of the costs prevailing Distribution Agreement that they Table 8.4 Fuel Sales by Type 2002, Ethiopia (units: liters) 10Distributors' margin includes: (i) transport mar- gin which for paved roads is Ethiopian 0.35c / Fuel Type(1) 2002 liter per km (in this case these cents are 0.01 of Gasoline 87RON (MSP) 188,235,023 a birr); (ii) marketing margin of distributors; and (iii) retailers' margin. The total (i.e. (i) + (ii) + (iii)) Kerosene 231,106,302 distributors' margin has been set at Ethiopian 44.4 cents/ 100 liters (approx US$ 0.04387) or Diesel (Gas Oil) 727,694,961 10.09%. Retail fuel prices are set by location but will vary dependent on distance from ports LPG 1,653,214 of entry ­ there is a set transport rate (set per km Source: Mobil Ethiopia, Fuel includes retail and other sales. and by type of road). 45 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Table 8.5 Addis Ababa Retail Fuel Price (Birr) January 1, 2003 Component MOGAS Regular gasoline ADO (Diesel) 1. Price at Djibouti port 194.40 181.93 2. Djibouti-Dewek/Galafi Transportation Cost 8.10 8.10 3. CIF value (1+2) 202.50 190.03 4. Excise tax (30% ON 3) 60.75 0.00 5. Value added tax (15% on 3+4)* 39.49 28.51 6. Municipality tax* 2.00 2.00 7. Road Fund 9.50 8.00 8. Stabilizing fund 85.16 2.41 9. EPE margin 4.30 4.75 10. EPE invoice price (1+4+5+6+7+8+) 395.60 227.60 11. Distributor's margin* 44.40 44.40 12. New retail price (10+11) 440.00 272.00 13. Prevailing retail price 440.00 272.00 14. Difference-cents (121­13) 0.00 0.00 15. Difference-percentage (14/13) 0 0 * All Sales and Municipality Taxes will be transferred to the Road Fund. ** Distributors' Margin includes Transport Cost and Retailers' Margin. Note: The Djibouti-Dewele/Galafi Transport cost is considered only for tax purpose. Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise (EPE) signed with Mobil, Shell, Total and Agip (now to open the retail distribution and marketing Shell) in 1969. This will expire on 24 October of oil products to new players with the aim of 2003. The Government's stated intention is improving the quality of services and products. 46 9 CHAPTER Annex C--Draft mandate for a multi- sectoral working group to oversee action plan implementation The global phase-out of lead from gasoline has forward through early leaded gasoline phase- proceeded dramatically in the last five years. out. Countries in North America, Europe, Japan The phase-out of leaded gasoline is but a and Asia have phased-out leaded gasoline; about first step in developing a more comprehensive 85% of total gasoline consumption is now lead- approach to air quality management that would free. However there are a number of countries include actions on: that still use lead additives to boost octane lev- els in gasoline. Almost all of these countries Improving fuel quality and developing new are in Africa and the Middle East. The World fuel specifications; Health Organization recommends that leaded Upgradingthequalityofvehicleimportsand gasoline be phased-out worldwide. emission controls; An agreement was reached in June 2001 Establishing baseline inventories of key at the Dakar Conference in Senegal, to launch pollutants and health effects; and national programs to phase-out leaded gaso- Developing an appropriate public informa- line by 2005 in the countries of sub-Saharan tion or awareness campaign. Africa (SSA). Follow up conferences have since been held Government agencies will retain the key in Abuja, Nigeria in November 2001; Dakar, responsibilities for phasing-out leaded gasoline Senegal in March 2002; Cotonou, Benin in and its replacement with unleaded gasoline, as April 2002 and Nairobi, Kenya in June 2002. well as follow on actions aimed at securing a All four conferences supported the Dakar dec- more comprehensive approach to air quality laration. Many countries have committed to the management. 2005 phase-out date and Mauritius has gone a As the issues involved in leaded gasoline step further by aiming for phase-out by August phase-out and air quality improvement are 2002 complex and involve many groups in society Lead is a poison with significant negative and consequently it has been recommended that public health impacts. As SSA and other oil once the government commits to phase-out importing countries are confronted with fewer leaded gasoline and follow on actions to im- difficulties to phase out lead from gasoline prove air quality, a multi-sectoral stakeholder than those operating national refineries for group consisting of senior members of govern- the supply of their markets, there is an oppor- ment agencies, the oil industry, and civil society tunity to make a major environmental step including Non-Government Organizations 47 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES (NGOs) and consumer groups should be estab- Coordinate the relevant communication lished. campaigns of other groups (e.g. industry, The objectives (i.e. mandate) for this multi- government, media) so that a consistent sectoral stakeholder group that should be message is transmitted to the public during established for a period of at least three years the phase-out of leaded gasoline and its shall be to: replacement with unleaded gasoline as well as follow on actions aimed at securing a Steer the overall air quality management more comprehensive approach to air qual- activities in the medium to the long term; ity management; Provide an independent source of advice, Coordinate with sub-regional public aware- comment and feedback for government ness campaigns to ensure that messages agencies responsible for key implementa- are consistent and activities are compatible tion actions for phasing-out leaded gasoline and efficient; and and its replacement with unleaded gasoline as well as follow on actions aimed at secur- The multi-sectoral stakeholder group should ing a more comprehensive approach to air aim to establish a small full time secretariat within quality management; six months of being established to carry out Take responsibility for developing the pub- the needed work--the secretariat should aim lic awareness campaign and associated to supplement it resources as required with the expenditure decisions of relevant compo- assistance of members of the stakeholder group. nents with the close cooperation of The initial steps to establish the multi- government agencies and other groups; sectoral stakeholder group should be established Obtain sources of funds for implementa- immediately the Government commits to phase- tion of relevant public awareness campaign out leaded gasoline. The initiating steps should expenditures from relevant stakeholders, be taken jointly by the Ethiopian Ministry of government and international funding agen- Trade and Industry; Ministry of Health and the cies; Environmental Protection Authority. 48 10 CHAPTER Annex D - Draft Outline Terms of Reference for follow on air quality activities 10.1 Background those operating national refineries for the sup- ply of their markets, there is an opportunity to The global phase-out of lead from gasoline has make a major environmental step forward proceeded dramatically in the last five years. through early leaded gasoline phase-out. Countries in North America, Europe, Japan The phase-out of leaded gasoline is but a and Asia have phased-out leaded gasoline; about first step in developing a more comprehensive 85% of total gasoline consumption is now lead- approach to air quality management that would free. However there are a number of countries include actions on: that still use lead additives to boost octane lev- els in gasoline. Almost all of these countries Improving fuel quality and developing new are in Africa and the Middle East. The World fuel specifications; Health Organization recommends that leaded Upgradingthequalityofvehicleimportsand gasoline be phased-out worldwide. emission controls; An agreement was reached in June 2001 Establishing baseline inventories of key at the Dakar Conference in Senegal to launch pollutants and health effects; and national programs to phase-out leaded gaso- Developing an appropriate public informa- line by 2005 in the countries of sub-Saharan tion or awareness campaign. Africa (SSA). Follow up conferences have since been held Government agencies will retain the key in Abuja, Nigeria in November 2001; Dakar, responsibilities for phasing-out leaded gasoline Senegal in March 2002; Cotonou, Benin in and its replacement with unleaded gasoline, as April 2002 and Nairobi, Kenya in June 2002. well as follow on actions aimed at securing a All four conferences supported the Dakar dec- more comprehensive approach to air quality laration. Many countries have committed to the management. 2005 phase-out date and Mauritius has gone a As the issues involved in leaded gasoline step further by aiming for phase-out by August phase-out and air quality improvement are 2002. complex and involve many groups in society Lead is a poison with significant negative and consequently it has been recommended that public health impacts. As SSA and other oil once the government commits to phase-out importing countries are confronted with fewer leaded gasoline and follow on actions to im- difficulties to phase out lead from gasoline than prove air quality, a multi-sectoral stakeholder 49 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES group consisting of senior members of govern- 10.3 Key tasks to satisfy ment agencies, the oil industry, and civil society each objective including Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) and consumer groups should be estab- 10.3.1 Task 1--Establish an lished. appropriate emissions inventory Establish Inventory--The purpose of this task is to support the Ethiopian Environmental Pro- 10.2 Objectives tection Authority (EPA) and develop an initial and approximate emissions inventory from mo- The objectives of these outline draft Terms of bile and stationery sources to support on-going Reference (ToR) cover needed research and air quality management activities. Initial work technical assistance to provide a sound infor- should be carried out to confirm the scope of mation base to monitor the benefits of the pollutants to be monitored that have been phasing-out leaded gasoline and for support- initially identified as: ing the design of subsequent more comprehensive activities to improve air quality PM2.5 generally. The objectives of the ToR are to: CO HC and Establish an appropriate emissions inven- NOX tory from mobile and other sources; Create a suitable base-line to measure the Both ambient and roadside measurements benefits of the lead phase-out decision should be made as necessary to establish an through statistically valid measurements of inventory of sufficient accuracy to identify the: blood level lead in currently vulnerable groups; Relativecontributionstoeachpollutantfrom Undertake a public perception survey and mobile and other sources; and develop a database on available informa- Ambient and roadside measurements over tion/research and evaluate public's general various periods of time to describe the ex- level of awareness of lead effects and air tent to which pollutants exceed established pollution including develop monitoring in- international standards. dicators and survey tools; and Prepare an updated and prioritized action Propose training--Equipment used during the plan for improving air quality. project shall be transferred to EPA. EPA shall receive initial training towards assisting EPA to While the work required to satisfy each of establish a functioning, embryonic monitoring the above objectives is discrete and indepen- system. The consultant should propose and dent to a large extent it shall be carried out carry out a suitable initial training activity rec- under a single contract with appropriate ex- ognizing that in the medium term a sub-regional perts being brought to bear on each separate approach to training could be provided by the aspect of the work. World Bank and/or the United Nations Envi- The following sections describe the key tasks ronment Program (UNEP) through a program required to be undertaken to satisfy each of similar to their previous Global Environment the above objectives. Monitoring Systems (GEMS)/Air. 50 CHAPTER 10: ANNEX D 10.3.2 Task 2--Create a suitable 10.3.4 Task 4--Prepare updated base-line to measure the benefits air quality action plan of the lead phase-out decision Based on the above tasks the consultant shall The consultant shall propose and implement prepare an updated, integrated air quality ac- with advice of the Ministry of Health and the tion plan that addresses in a prioritized manner multi-sectoral stakeholder group a series of sta- the following components: tistically valid measurements of blood level lead in currently vulnerable groups (e.g. traffic po- Priority pollutants from mobile sources; and licemen, school children etc) and a suitable Priority pollutants from stationary sources. control group in Addis Ababa. The aim is to establish a suitable base-line to monitor blood The updated action plan will therefore ad- lead levels over time. dress further priority actions on: 10.3.3 Task 3--Undertake initial Improved fuel quality and harmonized, sub- public perception surveys regional fuel quality specifications in the The purpose of the public perception surveys context of desirable longer term air quality is to develop a database on available informa- improvement goals; tion/research and evaluate the public's general Vehicle emission standards for new and in- level of awareness of lead effects and air pollu- use vehicles; tion including develop monitoring indicators and Emissions reduction strategies from station- survey tools. ary sources; The consultant shall reserve US$ 10,000 Strategies for improving indoor air quality; of the total budget for this technical assistance Soundly based urban and transport plan- at the disposal of the multi-sectoral stakeholder ning and management; and group to conduct suitable public perception sur- Capacity building. veys. 51 11 CHAPTER List of Workshop Participants 1. H. E. Ato Fantaye Biftou ­ MoTI 23. Ato Tesfaye Mekonnen ­ Representative 2. Ato Arkebe Ogbay ­ Mayor of Addis Ababa of gas station owners 3. Ato Hilawi Yoseph ­ Vice Mayor 24. Ato Mesai Girma ­ GM, Quality and Stan- 4. Ato Hagos Aregay ­ MoTI dards Authority of Ethiopia (QSAE) 5. Ato Yigzaw Mekonnen ­ GM of EPE 25. Ato Alemayehu Belete ­ QSAE 6. Ato Worku Gossaye ­ EPE 26. Ato Kebede ­ GM CRDA 7. Ato Dinku Abowa ­ EPE 27. Ato Hussein Shibeshi ­ Sec General, AACC 8. Ato Tadesse Tilahun ­ GM, Shell Ethiopia 28. Ato Andualem Tegegn ­ Sec. General, ECC Ltd, represented by Ato Alemu Berhe 29. Ato Diriba Tura ­ Head of AA Trade Bu- 9. Mr. Martin Fayulu ­ Mobil Oil East Africa reau Ltd 30. Ato Mulugeta Amha ­ Commissioner of 10. Mr. Roland Sorbier ­ GM Total Ethiopia Science and Technology 11. Mr. Joha Salin ­ US Embassy Com/Eco 31. Ato Beyene G Meskel ­ General Manager Secretary of PESA 12. Ato Zemedkun Girma ­ Addis Ababa Road 32. Ato Mengistu Tefera ­ MoFED, adviser to Transport Authority the Minister and Board or EPE 13. Ato Teklai W Gerima ­ Addis Ababa Road 33. Ato Asres W. Georgis ­ Energy Agency Transport Authority 34. Ato Abiy Hunegnaw ­ Head, Department 14. Ato Kassahun H. Marriam ­ Eth. RTA, rep- of Petroleum, Ministry of Mines resented by Ato Demeke Bekele 35. Ato Mesfin Abate ­ Ethanol Project, Fincha 15. Ato Sileshi Taye Belihu ­ Ministry of Health Sugar Factory 16. Ato Abebe Tadege ­ National Meteorol- 36. Ato Aimiro Wondimagegnehu Focus on ogy Services Agency Children (NGO) 17. Ato Zerou Girmay ­ Eth. Environmental 37. Two Representatives of the Chemical En- Protection Authority gineers Association 18. Ato Misikir Tesfaye ­ Eth. Environmental 38. Ato Amakilew Cherkosie ­ GM Forum for Protection Authority Street Children Ethiopia 19. Ato Getachew Eshete ­ AA Environmen- 39. Representatives of the Media (ETV, Walta, tal Protection Authority Reporter, Addis Tribune, Capital, Fortune) 20. Ato Getaneh Gebre ­ Addis Ababa Road 40. Ato Lema Jote ­ Ethiopian Consumers As- Transport Authority sociation 21. Two Representatives of taxi driver asso- 41. Ato Mehari W Agegnehu ­ Ethiopian En- ciations vironment Protection Authority 22. Ato Bezu Workie ­ Representative of gas station owners 53 12 CHAPTER Report References Chevron (1990) Use of Unleaded Gasoline in Africa, II. Kwazulu/Natal, South Africa in Cars Designed for Leaded Gasoline, Sci. Total Environ; 197 (1­3), 1­11. Technical Bulletin, USA. Radian Corporation (1994), Motor Vehicle Pol- Diouf A (et al), Level of Exposure to Lead lution Control in Bangkok: A Strategy Eliminated by Automobiles ­ Impact on for Progress. A Report prepared for the Oxidative Stress and the Nutritional Sta- Pollution Control Department, Thailand. tus of Senegalese Children. Paper Rayner, S (2002), East Africa Vehicle Fleet presented at the Regional Conference on Implications: Lead Phase Out and Emis- the Phase-Out of Unleaded Gasoline, Dakar, sion Control, Presentation at Workshop on Senegal, 26­28 June. the Phase Out of Leaded Gasoline in East East Africa Group (2001), Action Plan ­ Africa, Nairobi, June 5­7, 2002. Presented at Learning Activities: Confer- Schwela D, Phoenix J (2001), Leaded Gaso- ence Agenda Regional Conference on the line: An Overview of Environmental and Phase-Out of Unleaded Gasoline, Dakar, Health Impacts, Presented at the Regional Senegal, 26­28 June. Conference on the Phase-Out of Unleaded Mayorga Alba, E (2002), Overview of Techni- Gasoline, Dakar, Senegal, 26­28 June. cal, Policy and Regulatory Options in Thomas V, Kwong A (2001) Ethanol as a lead Integrating Lead Phase-Out in Air Pollu- replacement: phasing out leaded gasoline tion Abatement Strategies, Presentation in Africa, Center for Energy and Environ- at Workshop on the Phase Out of Leaded mental Studies, H-214 Engineering Gasoline in East Africa, Nairobi, June Quadrangle, Princeton University, 5­7, 2002. Princeton, NJ 08544-5263, USA, Pub- Muylle, M (2002), Downstream Petroleum Sec- lished by Elsevier Energy Policy, 29 (2001), tor in sub-Saharan Africa ­ A World Bank pp 1133­1143. Perspective, Presentation at Workshop on Shell Company of Thailand Limited (1990), Un- the Phase Out of Leaded Gasoline in East leaded Gasoline, Questions and Answers. Africa, Nairobi, June 5­7, 2002. Sridhar MKC (2001), Environmental Lead Nriagu J., Oleru NT, Cudjoe C, Chine A (1997a) Levels in African Cities. ­ Lead Poisoning of Children in Africa, US-EPA (1985), Costs and Benefits of Reduc- III. Kaduna, Nigeria. Sci. Total Environ; 197 ing Lead in Gasoline: Final Regulatory (1­3), 13­9. Impact Analysis. EPA­230­05­85­006. Nriagu J, Jinabhai CC, Naidoo R, Coutsoudis Office of Policy Analysis, USA Environmen- A (1997b) ­ Lead Poisoning of Children tal Protection Agency, Washington DC. 55 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES Weaver, C (1996), Personal Communication. World Resources Institute (2002), Research (Specialist in Fuels, Emissions and Engine Center; Maps and Indicators: Health. Ex- Technology). posure to air polluted with lead from gasoline in developing countries, http:// www.wri.org/wri/ehi/leaddev.html (ac- cessed 10 January 2003). 56 13 CHAPTER List of Technical Paper Series of Joint UNDP/World Bank ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME (ESMAP) Region/ Activity/Report Title Date Number Country SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (AFR) Ethiopia Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Oil Importing Countries of sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Ethiopia--Action Plan 12/03 038/03 Sub-Saharan Petroleum Products Transportation Corridor: Analysis and Case Studies 03/03 033/03 Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in sub-Saharan Africa 04/02 028/02 Energy and Poverty: How can Modern Energy Services Contribute to Poverty Reduction 03/03 032/03 Kenya Field Performance Evaluation of Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) Photovoltaic Systems in Kenya: Methods and Measurement in Support of a Sustainable Commercial Solar Energy Industry 08/00 005/00 The Kenya Portable Battery Pack Experience: Test Marketing an Alternative for Low-Income Rural Household Electrification 12/01 005/01 Nigeria Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Nigeria 11/02 029/02 Senegal Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in sub-Saharan Africa 03/02 022/02 Swaziland Solar Electrification Program 2001­2010: Phase 1: 2001­2002 (Solar Energy in the Pilot Area) 12/01 019/01 Tanzania Mini Hydropower Development Case Studies on the Malagarasi, Muhuwesi, and Kikuletwa Rivers Volumes I, II, and III 04/02 024/02 Uganda Report on the Uganda Power Sector Reform and Regulation Strategy Workshop 08/00 004/00 WEST AFRICA (AFR) LPG Market Development 12/01 017/01 57 CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (EAP) Cambodia Efficiency Improvement for Commercialization of the Power Sector 10/02 031/02 China Assessing Markets for Renewable Energy in Rural Areas of Northwestern China 08/00 003/00 Technology Assessment of Clean Coal Technologies for China Volume I--Electric Power Production 05/01 011/01 Technology Assessment of Clean Coal Technologies for China Volume II--Environmental and Energy Efficiency Improvements for Non-power Uses of Coal 05/01 011/01 Technology Assessment of Clean Coal Technologies for China Volume III--Environmental Compliance in the Energy Sector: Methodological Approach and Least-Cost Strategies 12/01 011/01 Thailand DSM in Thailand: A Case Study 10/00 008/00 Development of a Regional Power Market in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region (GMS) 12/01 015/01 Vietnam Options for Renewable Energy in Vietnam 07/00 001/00 Renewable Energy Action Plan 03/02 021/02 SOUTH ASIA (SAS) Bangladesh Workshop on Bangladesh Power Sector Reform 12/01 018/01 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) Russia Russia Pipeline Oil Spill Study 03/03 034/03 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LAC) Regional Electricity Markets Interconnections -- Phase I: Identification of Issues for the Development of Regional Power Markets in South America 12/01 016/01 Regional Electricity Markets Interconnections -- Phase II: Proposals to Facilitate Increased Energy Exchanges in South America 04/02 016/01 Population, Energy and Environment Program (PEA), Comparative Analysis on the Distribution of Oil Rents (English and Spanish) 02/02 020/02 Estudio Comparativo sobre la Distribución de la Renta Petrolera Estudio de Casos: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú 03/02 023/02 Latin American and Caribbean Refinery Sector Development Report ­ Volumes I and II 08/02 026/02 The Population, Energy and Environmental Program (EAP) (English and Spanish) 08/02 027/02 Ecuador Programa de Entrenamiento a Representantes de Nacionalidades Amazónicas en Temas Hidrocarburíferos 08/02 025/02 58 CHAPTER 13: LIST OF ESMAP TECHNICAL PAPER SERIES Guatemala Household Fuel Use and Fuel Switching 06/03 036/03 Nicaragua Memoria Taller de Electrificación Rural 08/02 030/02 GLOBAL Impact of Power Sector Reform on the Poor: A Review of Issues and the Literature 07/00 002/00 Best Practices for Sustainable Development of Micro Hydro Power in Developing Countries 08/00 006/00 Mini-Grid Design Manual 09/00 007/00 Photovoltaic Applications in Rural Areas of the Developing World 11/00 009/00 Subsidies and Sustainable Rural Energy Services: Can we Create Incentives Without Distorting Markets? 12/00 010/00 Sustainable Woodfuel Supplies from the Dry Tropical Woodlands 06/01 013/01 Key Factors for Private Sector Investment in Power Distribution 08/01 014/01 Cross-Border Oil and Gas Pipelines: Problems and Prospects 06/03 035/03 Monitoring and Evaluation in Rural Electrification Projects: A Demand-Oriented Approach 07/03 037/03 59 Previous Working Papers Available from the World Bank AFRICA REGION THE WORLD BANK on The Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities Working Paper No. 1: Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities ­ Dakar Semi- nar, December 17 & 18, 1998 - Urban Transport and Air Quality in Dakar ­ Proceedings (SSATP and Urban Mobility, February 1999). Working Paper No. 2: Air Quality Studies in Urban Context ­ Dakar and Ouagadougou Cases ­ Final Reports (SSATP and Urban Mobility, September 1999). Working Paper No. 3: Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities ­ Work in Progress (January 2000). Working Paper No. 4: Air Quality Study in Urban Context - Cotonou Case ­ Synthesis (October 2000). Working Paper No. 5: Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Sub-Saharan Africa ­ Dakar, Senegal, June 26­28, 2001 ­ Proceedings (December 2001). Working Paper No. 6: National Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Nigeria ­ Abuja, Nigeria, November 15­16, 2001 ­ Proceedings (March 2002). Working Paper No. 7: Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Nigeria and Neighboring Countries ­ Cotonou, Benin, April 11­12, 2002 ­ Proceed- ings (June 2002). Working Paper No. 8: Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in West Africa ­ Dakar, Senegal, March 26­27, 2002 ­ Proceedings (July 2002). Working Paper No. 9: Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in East Africa ­ Nairobi, Kenya, June 5­7, 2002 ­ Proceedings (January 2003). Working Paper No. 10: 1998-2002 Progress Report of the World Bank Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities (January 2003). Working Paper No. 11: Rapport d'avancement 1998­2002 de l'initiative sur la qualité de l'air dans les villes d'Afrique sub-saharienne de la Banque mondiale (Janvier 2003). Working Paper No. 12: Second Steering Committee : The Road Ahead ­ Phase II : 2003­2006 (May 2003).