102851 v1 THE LAKE CHAD DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE ACTION PLAN SUMMARY The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan (LCDAP), or Plan de développement et d’adaptation au changement climatique du lac Tchad (PADLT), is an initiative undertaken by the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and its six member countries: Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Libya, Niger, and Nigeria. A Changing Lake in Response to Regional Rainfall Variability Lake Chad is a tropical lake with related wetlands. water level is too low, the Great Barrier prevents It has a northern and a southern basin of roughly water from flowing to the Northern Basin, the same sizes, which are separated by a sand causing that segment of the Lake to dry up. The barrier, referred to as the Great Barrier (see Lake is shared by Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Figure 1). It is very shallow with a general depth Nigeria. Parts of the Central African Republic of less than four meters. The main rivers feeding are in its active hydrological basin and some of the Lake flow in its southern basin. When the the aquifers connected to the Lake are in Libya. FIGURE 1: AVERAGE SITUATION OF LAKE CHAD IN ITS “SMALL STATE,” FROM 2010-2015 N’guigmi C H A D 14°N Northern basin N I G E R r Bol rrie t Ba rea Southern basin G 13°N N I G E R I A Guitté Permanent open waters CAMEROON Quasi-permanent swamps Erratically flooded swamps Chari-Logone River Areas not flooded since 1973 N’Djaména 15°E 0 12°N 14°E 50 km Source: Magrin, Lemoalle, Pourtier, 2015. Atlas du lac Tchad. The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan | 1 Over the course of the last 100 years the lake The Lake’s size variability is explained by area has significantly varied in size (see Table rainfall variations over its basin, particularly 1). The average size of the Lake declined from over the basin of the Chari-Logone River, over 22,000 km2 in 1960 to about 1,700 km2 in which accounts for about 85 percent of water January 1985, but has since that time increased inflows to the Lake. There are four different again to an average of approximately 8,000 km2 states of the Lake depending on rainfall and during the 2000-2015 period. water inflows. The “Small State” Lake Chad, observed since 1991, is the most favorable for fishing, livestock and agriculture. TABLE 1: THE DIFFERENT STATES OF LAKE CHAD OVER TIME DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AND WATER INFLOWS Lake Chad State Dry Small Small Medium Large Inflows from the < 15 15 – 34 35 – 43 > 43 Chari (km3/year) Water level (m asl) dry northern basin different levels 280 - 282 >282.3 Number of water several several one one bodies Total surface of the 2000 – 6000 6000 – 14000 15000 – 19000 20000 – 25000 Lake (km2) Flooded area of the 0 0 – 8000 9000 10000 northern basin (km2) Dominating swamps and swamps dune archipelago open water landscape savannas Aquatic vegetation ++ +++ ++ + Time Period some years in the 1973-present 1954-1972 1953-1954 1970s and mostly in except for “Dry the 1980s Small” periods Source: Expert Group Review, 2014. Lake Chad: A Productive Yet Poor and Vulnerable System Within its watershed, Lake Chad is a large, capital of Chad, and Maiduguri, the capital of productive socio-ecosystem, yet with much poverty, the State of Borno in Nigeria. The entire basin demographic pressure, and security threats. is home to about 50 million people as of 2015. A HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE SOCIO-ECOSYSTEM The rich biodiversity of the Lake has enabled riparian communities to develop productive The Lake, its banks and its islands are a source activities based on fishing, agriculture, and of livelihood for nearly two million people. livestock farming. The dynamism of the area is They are also a food-exporting hub (see Figure mainly based on a complex system, adapted 2), playing a key role for food security of a to the variability of the environment and hinterland with nearly 13 million inhabitants characterized by the articulation of: mobility, and two metropolitan centers, N’Djamena, the multi-activity, and multi-functionality. Mobility 2 | The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan refers to people responding to changing natural The value of Lake Chad resides therefore in resources. Multi-activity means that a dominant the ecosystem services it provides, and these proportion of the population of the Lake practice are particularly precious in its Sahelo-Saharan several activities (fishing, livestock, agriculture, regional environment characterized by aridity and also trade, and crafts) to secure revenues. and the erratic availability of water resources. Multi-functionality refers to the successive use Recognized by the Ramsar Convention, the Lake of the same space for fishing, agriculture, and is being classified a World Natural Heritage Site livestock, following the rhythm of the annual by UNESCO. floods and flood recessions. Photo credit: G. Margin The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan | 3 FIGURE 2: LAKE CHAD’S CONTRIBUTION TO FOOD SECURITY IN THE REGION N I G E R Manga C H A D N’guigmi Rig Rig Doro Léléwa Kanem Mao Liwa Kadzell Gadira Bahr el Ghazal Boulatoungour Bosso Ngouri Baga Sola Malam-Fatori Bol Diffa Baga Kawa Massakory Kofya Kinasserom Kouloudia Kukawa Darak Guitté Baltram N I G E R I A Tourba Madaick Karal Daban Masara Blangoa Gredaya Monguno Wulgo Kirenowa Marte Gambaru Ngala N’DJAMÉNA Kousseri MAIDUGURI CAMEROON 50 km Main Flows: Fish and agricultural products Area of high agricultural production Live animals Paved access roads to the Lake Secondary Flows: Fish and agricultural products Types of Markets: Main rural markets Urban markets Urban markets with local scope with regional scope Fish Animals Agricultural products All products All products Animals All products Source: Magrin, Lemoalle, Pourtier, 2015. Atlas du lac Tchad. 4 | The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan A VULNERABLE SOCIO-ECOSYSTEM FACING services it provides. This “Small State” is NUMEROUS RISKS optimal in terms of the availability of land for agricultural production and grazing during the Yet Lake Chad is also a very fragile system. annual dry season when the water recedes. Both Demographic pressure exacerbates the a “Dry Small Lake Chad” as well as a “Medium vulnerability of a poor population that Lake Chad” would have less productive lands already has low access to basic services and available for agriculture and livestock farming. infrastructure. Moreover, the Lake is exposed to potential modifications of its hydrological The frequent return to a ‘Dry Small Lake conditions that a changing climate could trigger. Chad’ state would be the worst scenario. It is It is also threatened by pollution and insecurity. characterized by the absence of water inflows to the Northern Basin of the Lake, as observed Hydrological shifts in decades of drought, and would compromise The Lake system is highly vulnerable to a all the activities on which depend the livelihood significant change in the water inflows from of about 500,000 inhabitants and the food its tributary rivers. Indeed, the “Small State” security of nearly four million people in that Lake Chad, observed since 1992, is the most part of the Lake’s hinterlands. The drying-up of favorable with regards to the ecosystem the northern half of the Lake could also lead to Photo credit: G. Margin The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan | 5 migration to its southern shores, intensifying One of the highest population growth rates in pressure on resources for agriculture, fishing, the world and livestock farming in the rest of the lake The Lake Chad Basin is experiencing one of the area and resulting in conflicts. This transition highest rates of population growth in the world to a “Dry Small Lake Chad” could result from a which could heighten risks related to the over- decrease in precipitation due to climate change exploitation of natural resources and to socio- or to a significant increase in water withdrawals political instability, especially if not enough jobs from the rivers feeding the Lake, mainly from the are created to provide a living for a growing Chari-Logone River. number of young adults. This demographic pressure will also make even more pressing the Pollution risks need to improve basic services and infrastructure. Due to its very shallow depth and the prevalence of wetlands, the Lake system is highly Insecurity vulnerable to pollution. Yet the exploitation of In 2014 and 2015, the Lake Chad region was hydrocarbons is expanding in the basin and the struck by extensive violence, associated with the Lake itself, and the inadequate use of pesticides Boko Haram movement, particularly in the whole in agriculture may already have an impact on of northeastern Nigeria as well as in the border animal health (ruminants and fish). Untreated areas of Niger, Cameroon, and Chad. Tens of municipal wastewater and industrial and mining thousands of people have been displaced. effluents are also a risk. Trade has been disrupted and the regional economy destabilized. These challenges Low Human Development Index and levels of have strengthened the integrative dynamics basic services and infrastructure developed in recent years between the States The human development indicators for the bordering the lake: border agreements, joint Lake Chad area are far lower than national mobilization and solidarity to restore security, averages, which themselves are low compared to and joint projects. This cooperation is now international standards. The area generally lacks expected to become more concrete and basic public social services and infrastructure such effective in the field of economic development, as education, health, water, roads, and electricity. including in particular the proposed Action Plan. (Lemoalle and Magrin, 2014; Magrin et al., 2015). Information Gaps and Climate Uncertainties Make the Management of the Lake Socio-ecosystem More Complex The population in the Lake’s basin will double in the Lake and the rivers feeding it, as well as over the next 30 years, likely causing an increase the functioning of floodplains is inadequate. In in water withdrawals for human consumption, this context, the management of the Lake will irrigation, and industries. Yet, according to need to: (a) prioritize “no regret investments models from the Intergovernmental Panel and policies” which will be beneficial in all on Climate Change (IPPC), future changes scenarios, and (b) improve the knowledge base in precipitation in this part of the world to reduce uncertainty and refine feasibility are unknown. Moreover, information on studies before engaging in costly, large-scale, groundwater, water withdrawals, sedimentation high-risk infrastructure development. 6 | The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan Photo credit: G. Margin A Ten-year Multi-sectoral Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan to Turn Lake Chad into a Pole of Regional Rural Development In order to respond to these challenges, LCBC by LCBC during the past years, including the and its member States, with support from the Vision 2025, the Strategic Action Plan, and the World Bank Group and in coordination with the Water Charter. French Development Agency/Agence Française de Development (AFD), have prepared the Lake To meet its objectives, the Plan intends to contribute Chad Development and Climate Resilience significantly to food security, employment, and Action Plan (LCDAP) for the period of 2016- the social inclusion of youth by improving, in 2025. The core idea of the Plan is that, in parallel a sustainable way: (a) the living conditions of to the restoration of peace and security, there is populations settled on the Lake’s banks and islands, a need to turn Lake Chad into a pole of regional and (b) the resilience of a system characterized by rural development. This objective is in line with strong demographic growth, high hydrological LCBC strategic planning documents developed variability, and climate uncertainty. Seven Priority Themes The LCDAP proposes a total of seven priority region of Lake Chad (PURDEP) 2015-2016, as themes, grouping a total of 173 activities (see well as recent national planning documents for Figure 3) summarized below. Some of the at least part of Lake Chad. Others, not identified projects and measures included in the present in those documents, have been included in the Action Plan come from LCBC’s five-year Action Plan in order to meet its stated objective investment plan (2013-2017) and its Emergency for a ten-year planning horizon. Program for youth and vulnerable groups in the The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan | 7 FIGURE 3. INVESTMENT DISTRIBUTION BY THEME 5% 4% 13% 5% 1 Support producers and value chains 8% 2 Secure access to resources and conflict management 3 Improve living conditions with public investments 4 Facilitate transport and trade 27% 5 Preserve environmental capital 38% 6 Better management water resources in the basin 7 Information and participation PRIORITY THEME #1: SUPPORTING PRIORITY THEME #3: IMPROVING PRODUCERS AND THEIR VALUE CHAINS LIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH PUBLIC INVESTMENTS Supporting producers and their value chains will increase the productivity and resilience of food The type of activities considered include rural and production systems (agriculture, fisheries, and urban water supply, mostly from groundwater animal husbandry). The types of activities under and when possible using solar energy; sanitation this theme include appropriate, small, and flexible and hygiene; urban and rural electrification with hydraulic infrastructure as well as support services special emphasis on solar; education adapted (i.e. extension, credit, access to inputs, animal to mobile populations; health, including local health, support to producers’ organizations and health stations; construction of a regional value chains, post-harvest operations). hospital and prevention of epidemics such as Cholera and AIDS; and support to family PRIORITY THEME #2: SECURING ACCESS planning and girls education to curb population TO NATURAL RESOURCES AND MANAGING growth. CONFLICTS PRIORITY THEME #4: FACILITATING This theme includes activities for securing, TRANSPORT AND TRADE in an inclusive manner, access of vulnerable groups to agriculture land, pasture and fishery Activities included in this theme are the resources and, at the same time, improving construction, improvement, and rehabilitation the co-existence of agriculture, livestock of roads and tracks; the improvement and husbandry, and fisheries in the same area to management of navigation routes; harmonization prevent conflicts and favor intensification. The of trade regulations and standards; and the types of activities considered include local and improvement of practices in cross-border trade. participatory territorial planning, land rights, securing pastoral routes, pastoral water points, and fishery regulations. 8 | The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan Photo credit: G. Margin PRIORITY THEME #5: PRESERVING THE PRIORITY THEME #7: DISSEMINATING ENVIRONMENTAL CAPITAL OF THE LAKE INFORMATION, IMPROVING KNOWLEDGE, AND ITS BASIN AND MONITORING OF THE ENVIRONMENT This will include afforestation and reforestation; Activities considered include water quantity and soil and water conservation programs; promotion quality monitoring and information systems; of alternatives to wood-based energy; improving assessing current withdrawals (surface and the sustainability and profitability of gathering and groundwater); assessing the potential use hunting practices (natron, spirulina, varan, wood); of groundwater; analysis of the hydrological protection of the Kuri cows; and developing a functioning of flood plains and areas downstream value chain for invasive aquatic weeds. of dams; exploring the possibility to develop the Great Barrier Reef so as to regulate the PRIORITY THEME #6: BETTER MANAGING flow of water between North and South basins; THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE BASIN assessment of current sedimentation conditions to ascertain the utility of dredging programs in Concerted management of the resource is the Lake; study on the hydraulic functioning of the required at the basin level to manage trade-offs, Komadougou Yobe; a comprehensive feasibility avoiding that future water withdrawals increase study of the Congo basin water transfer; the so much as to prevent water inflows into the setting-up of a monitoring and information Northern Basin of the Lake. Sound management system on biodiversity, demography, and the is also required to manage increasing pollution economy of the Lake; and finally, encourage the risks (agricultural, urban, industrial, mining, participation of the civil society in the debates and oil sector). Foreseen activities include the related to the management of natural resources full implementation of the Water Charter and in the basin. pollution management. The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan | 9 Interventions Focus on Three Distinct Geographic Zones depending on Their Relationships with the Lake The activities proposed under the Plan focuses take place. This space is estimated to receive on three different geographic zones around the approximately 37% of planned investments. Lake. Figure 4 depicts the allocation of resources in each geographical zone. Zone 3 refers to the active hydrological basin of Lake Chad with nearly 50 million inhabitants. Zone 1 corresponds to the area of Lake Chad, This area is related to the Lake by the effects it including its banks and islands, covered by the may have on the quality and quantity of water nearby administrative districts, with around two flowing into the Lake. The Action Plan tentatively million inhabitants who live directly from the allocates 11% of investments to that zone. resources of Lake Chad. This area would get a little more than half of the planned investments. The interventions proposed in the Action Plan are eligible in one of three geographical zones Zone 2 is the extended hinterland of Lake Chad, depending on the priority theme it belongs including major riparian regions populated by to. Table 2 indicates the geographical zone 13 million of inhabitants, in which most of the considered for each priority theme. commercial and migratory relations of Lake Chad FIGURE 4: PROPOSED INVESTMENTS BY TABLE 2: PRIORITY THEMES GEOGRAPHIC ZONE AND GEOGRAPHIC ZONE Hydrological basin 11% Lake and its shores 53% Priority Theme Geographic Zone Supporting producers and the Lake area value chains Securing access to resources the Lake area and managing conflicts Improving living conditions the Lake area Promoting trade and transport the Lake and its hinterlands Preserving environmental Hydrological basin capital Hinterlands 37% Better managing water Hydrological basin resources Enhancing information and Hydrological basin participation 10 | The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan Responsibility for Implementing the LCDAP Rests Mainly on the Six Member States, with LCBC Coordination and Support The four riparian States plus Libya and the FIGURE 5: DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENTS BY COUNTRY AND LCBC Central African Republic, local powers (local LCBC 3% governments or customary authorities), the Cameroon 16% LCBC, and civil society will be responsible for Chad 31% implementing the proposed actions. Libya 2% The distribution of proposed investments between member states and the LCBC is Niger 16% indicated in Figure 5. CAR 2% Nigeria 30% Achieving the Action Plan’s Objectives Will Require Strengthening the Lake Chad Basin Commission Successful implementation of the Action enhance the capacity of LCBC in terms of data Plan will require LCBC to implement a set of collection, sharing of information, and carrying reform measures to become a more effective out analyses useful to governance of the basin’s subregional institution in fulfilling its mandate. shared natural resources. In parallel to the reform process, the Plan would Photo credit: G. Margin The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan | 11 References Magrin G., Pourtier R., Lemoalle J. (dir.), 2015. The 5-year investment plan, LCBC, 2014. Atlas du lac Tchad, Paris, Passages, République du Tchad, AFD, IRD, 227p. The Priority Development Emergency Program for youth and vulnerable people in Lake Chad Lemoalle J., Magrin G. (dir.), 2014. Le (PURDEP), LCBC, 2015. développement du lac Tchad : situation actuelle et futurs possibles, CBLT, Marseille, This document has benefited from Passages- IRD-Editions, coll. Expertise collégiale bilingue ADAPes cooperation for the reproduction of français-anglais, 216p. + clé USB (contributions maps from « Atlas du lac Tchad » (2015). intégrales des experts : 638p.) 12 | The Lake Chad Development and Climate Resilience Action Plan