59808 v2 A REVIEW OF SELECTED HYDROLOGY TOPICS TO SUPPORT BANK OPERATIONS HEF Technical Report 1 ­ June 2010 ANNEXES Technical Report 2010 HEF HYDROLOGY EXPERT FACILITY AN EXPERT SUPPORT TEAM (EST) OF THE WATER PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM (WPP) ii Table of Contents ANNEXES I. WorkshopProgram..............................................................................................................................................1 . II. Bio-BriefsofPresenters.....................................................................................................................................3 . III. Presentations........................................................................................................................................................9 Session1 AbelMejia­Introduction............................................................................................................................9 . TorkilJønch-Clausen................................................................................................................................. 15 JanuszKindler............................................................................................................................................. 49 . JuanB.Valdés............................................................................................................................................ 66 Session2 PeteKolsky.................................................................................................................................................. 92 PeterDroogers.........................................................................................................................................100 JeffreyE.Richey.......................................................................................................................................122 . RobertH.Meade.....................................................................................................................................147 Session3 StephenFosterandCatherineTovey..................................................................................................162 CurtBarrett...............................................................................................................................................177 . TorkilJønch-Clausen.............................................................................................................................. 184 PedroRestrepo........................................................................................................................................205 IgnacioRodriguez-Iturbe........................................................................................................................219 . KennethStrzepek....................................................................................................................................245 Session4 PaolaAgostini.......................................................................................................................................... 266 N.HarshadeepandWinstonYu...........................................................................................................287 ANNEX I. Workshop Program NOVEMBER 24 14:45­17:45 Second session: Hydrologic interactions Moderator Day 1: LuisGarcia,Consultant,Water 14:45­15:30 Sediment transport and deposition Anchor(HEF) in rivers and reservoirs, Dr.Robert Rapporteur Day 1: GabriellePuz,Consultant,Water Meade,researchhydrologistemeritus,US Anchor(HEF) GeologicalSurvey,Denver,Colorado,USA. 15:30­16:15 Land-ocean interactions,Jeffrey E. 9:30­10:00 Session of HEF Richey,UniversityofWashington,Seattle, 9:30­9:45 Welcomeandopeningoftheworkshop USA. andpresentationoftheHEFconceptby 16:15­16:30 Coffeebreak AbelMejia,SectorManager,WaterAnchor. 16:30­17:15 Managing evaporation and 9:45­10:00 Questionsandclarifications evapotranspiration,Peter Droogers, 10:00­13:00 First session: Water resources TheNetherlands. management 17:15­17:45 Discussionledbydiscussants:Winston 10:00­10:45 Application of integrated approaches Yu,WaterResourcesSpecialist,SASDA/ in water resources beyond the RonaldN.Hoffer,LeadEnvironmental conceptual phase,Torkil Jønch- Specialist,ECSSD. Clausen,Denmark. 10:45­11:00 Coffeebreak NOVEMBER 25 11:00­11:45 Demand management,Janusz Kindler, WarsawUniversityofTechnology,Poland. Moderator Day 2: AbelMejia,SectorManager,Water 11:45­12:30 Managing droughts and floods under Anchor changing environments,Juan B. G Rapporteur Day 2: abriellePuz,Consultant,Water Valdés,UniversityofArizona,Tucson,USA. Anchor(HEF) 12:30­13:00 Discussionledbydiscussants:Douglas Olson,LeadWaterResourcesSpecialist, 9:00­12:00 Third session: Impacts of climate LCSEN/HarshadeepNagarajaRao, variability on water resources and SeniorEnvironmentalSpecialist,SASDI. potential responses 13:00­14:15 Lunch 9:00­9:45 Hydrology for Water Resource 14:15­14:45 Advisory Services presentation: Systems Development and SWAT ­ Easy-to-use, just-in-time Management under the Risk of support for sanitation and hygiene Climate Change,Kenneth M. Strzepek, in Bank projects. Peter Kolsky, Senior UniversityofColorado,Boulder,USA. WaterandSanitationSpecialist,SWAT, 9:45­10:30 Addressing the links between WaterAnchor. hydrology and watershed climate, soil, 1 and vegetation,Ignacio Rodríguez- ResourcesManagementSpecialist, Iturbe,PrincetonUniversity,USA. MNSSD 10:30­10:45 Coffeebreak · ImportanceofhydrologyiniSimangaliso 10:45­12:15 The latest in watershed modeling: wetlandmanagement,SouthAfrica: applications to Bank projects, PaolaAgostini,SeniorEconomist, Europeanpractice:Torkil Jønch- AFTEN. Clausen,Denmark;The latest in 15:15­15:30 Coffeebreak watershed modeling: applications to 15:30­17:00 Panel 2: General discussion by Bank projects,USApractice:Pedro Presenters J. Restrepo and Curt Barrett, National CurtBarrett,NationalWeatherService, WeatherService,USA. USA;Peter Droogers,FutureWater, 12:15­12:45 Discussionledbydiscussants:Grant TheNetherlands;Torkil Jønch-Clausen, Milne,SeniorNaturalResources Denmark;Janusz Kindler,Warsaw ManagementSpecialist,SASDAand UniversityofTechnology,Poland;Robert BekeleNegewo,WaterSupplySpecialist, H. Meade, Researchhydrologistemeritus MNSSD. U.S.GeologicalSurvey,USA;Pedro J. 12:45­13:15 Advisory services presentation: Restrepo, NationalWeatherService, GW-MATE -- 8 Years of Strategic USA;Jeffrey E. Richey,Universityof Operational Advice on Groundwater Washington,Seattle,USA,Ignacio Management & the Links with Surface Rodríguez-Iturbe,PrincetonUniversity, Water Resources, Stephen Foster, USA,Kenneth M. Strzepek,Universityof GW-MATE,UK. Colorado,Boulder,USA,Juan B. Valdés, 13:15­14:15 Lunch UniversityofArizona,Tucson,USA. 14:15­15:15 Panel 1: Examples of key hydrological 17:00­17:45 Discussion, leadbyAbelMejia,Sector issues faced by Bank projects Manager,WaterAnchor · LessonslearnedfromHydrologyProj- Next steps and wrap-up ectsIandIIandotherprojectsinIndia: · Howcanthematerialpresentedcanbe HarshadeepNagarajaRao,Senior disseminatedmorewidelyintheBank EnvironmentalSpecialist,SASDI. andtoBankclients;howcanTTLsuse · Waterresourcesdecisionsupporttools thisknowledgeandtechniquesintheir underdevelopmentforprojectsinIndia: ownprojects;follow-upeventsandtop- WinstonYu,WaterResourcesSpecial- icstobecovered. ist,SASDA. · Conclusionsandwrap-up · HydrologicalissuesinBankTunisia projects:JuliaBucknall,LeadNatural 2 ANNEX II. Bio-Briefs of Presenters Curt Barrett CurtreceivedDepartmentofCommerceBronzeMedal curtis.barrett@verizon.net Awardsforbothprojects. Privateconsultant,recentlyretiredfromtheNational WeatherService,SilverSpring,MD,USA. Regional/Country experience: MekongRivercountries, http://webdev1.weather.gov/ Colombia,Mexico,Romania,Moldova,CentralAmerica. Mr.CurtisBarrettisformerdirectorofNOAA'sInternational HydrometeorologicalprojectsfortheNationalWeather Peter Droogers Service.WhileatNOAA,hisprojectportfolioranged p.droogers@futurewater.nl fromprojectsthatmitigatedpotentialnationaldisasters ScientificDirectorandFounder,FutureWater, (suchasestablishingearlywarningsystems),toprojects TheNetherlands thatpromotedIntegratedwaterresourcesmanagement http://futurewater.nl/ insupportoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.Mr. BarrettparticipatedinUSAIDOFDA'seffortstofund Dr.PeterDroogershasover15yearsofexperienceworking theAsiaFloodNetworkprojecttoestablishaflashflood inTheNetherlandsandoverseas.Hehasconductedresearch forecastingsystemfortheMekongRivercountries. atseveralinstitutionsincludingWageningenUniversity,the Thisregionalsystemwouldeventuallyintegratewith InternationalWaterManagementInstitute,andFutureWater. otherregionalsystemsandbecomeaglobalflashflood Dr.Droogersisanexpertonintegratedwaterresources forecastingsystem.Anotherstate-of-the-artwarning managementatdifferentspatialscaleswithemphasison systemunderCurt'sleadershipwasthedevelopmentof climatechange,waterforfoodissues,simulationmodelingin aradar-drivenflashfloodanddebrisflowwarningsystem combinationwithdatamining,andremotesensing.Heispart- fortheAbrurraValleyinColombia.Otherprojectsinvolved timelectureratseveraluniversitiesandhaswrittenover100 theimplementationofNWSfloodforecastingtechnology publicationsofwhich50appearedinpeer-reviewedjournals. (theNationalWeatherServiceRiverForecastSystem)for Heisareviewerforanumberofjournalsandisoneofthe MexicoandRomania,aswellasupgradeoffloodwarning associatereviewersoftheJournal of Hydrology. systemtechnologyforCentralAmerica. Consulting/Research experience:WaterWatch, Consulting/Research experience:Mr.Barretthas InternationalWaterManagementInstitute,Ministryof directedNOAA'slargestwarningsystemtechnology AgricultureinTheNetherlands. projectsincludingtheestablishmentofUSAID's$4.6million IndianOceanTsunamiWarningSystem2005­2007,and Regional/Country experience:SriLanka,Turkey theDepartmentofCommerce's$17millionHurricaneMitch Cambodia,France,India,Iran,Niger,Pakistan,SouthAfrica, ReconstructionprojectinCentralAmerica(1999­2003). Spain,TheGambia,andtheUnitedStates. 3 Stephen Foster Torkil Jønch-Clausen gwmatefoster@aol.com tjc@dhigroup.com WorldBankGW-MATE(GroundwaterManagement WaterPolicyAdviseroftheDHIGroup,AdjunctProfessor AdvisoryTeam);DirectorInternationalAssociationof attheTechnicalUniversityofDenmark,SeniorAdviserto Hydrogeologists(IAH),President2005­08. theGlobalWaterPartnership(GWP)andChairofthe http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EX DanishWater. TWAT/0,,contentMDK:21755553~menuPK:4965491~page http://www.dhigroup.com/;http://www.gwpforum.org/ PK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:4602123,00.html servlet/PSP Dr.StephenFosterreceivedaDScfromtheUniversity Consulting/Research experience:Priortoholding ofLondonin1983forpublishedworkongroundwater theseposts,hewasPolicyDirectoroftheDHIGroup, science,andawardsfromBritish,American,and DevelopmentDirectorandDeputyCEOofDHIWaterand internationalprofessionalsocietiesonsevenoccasions, Environment(2003­2007),DirectorResponsibleforDHI includingthe(BritishChartered)InstitutionofWater& InternationalCentres(1996­2003),andManagingDirector EnvironmentalManagement­WilliamWhitakerMedal(for ofVKI­InstituteforWaterandEnvironment(1993­1996). anoutstandingpublishedpaperongroundwater)in1976, Duringtheperiod1996­2003hewasChairmanof theIAHPresidentsAward(foranoutstandinginternational theTechnicalAdvisoryCommitteeoftheGlobalWater contributiontotheadvancementofhydrogeology)in2004, Partnership.Hehasmorethan35yearsofexperiencein andtheGeologicalSocietyofLondon­WilliamSmith waterresourcesplanningandmanagementasresearcher, Medal(foranoutstandingcareercontributioninthefieldof consultant,donorrepresentative,andrepresentativeof appliedgeology)in2006.Heisalsoaveryactivemember internationalorganizations. oftheInternationalAssociationofHydrogeologists(the worldwidegroundwaterassociation)havingbeenBurdon Becauseofhisspecialexpertiseinintegratedwater CommissionforDevelopingNationsLeader(1987­97), resourcesmanagement(IWRM),headvisesregions BritishNationalGroupChair(1996­99),VicePresident- andcountriesinIWRM,makesseveralinvitedkeynote WesternEurope(2000­04)andPresident(2005­08).In presentationsatinternationalandregionalconferences 1993hewasnamedVisitingProfessoroftheUniversityof everyyear,andhasbeenresponsibleforthecoordination LondonandForeignMemberoftheSpanishRealAcademia oftheIWRMThemeattheThirdWorldWaterForum deCiencias. inKyoto(2003)andtheFourthWaterForuminMexico (2006),wherehereceivedtheKingHassanIIGreatWorld Consulting/Research experience:Dr.Fosterhasvery WaterPrize. extensiveexperienceingroundwaterresearch,consulting andadvisoryworkwithawidevarietyofpractical Regional/Country experience: Technicallyresponsible application.Hismorerecentprofessionalpostsinclude forthecreationanddevelopmentofGWP'sRegional WorldHealthOrganization­GroundwaterAdvisorfor NetworksinAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericaduringthefirst LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(1986­89),British sevenyearsofGWP'sexistence.Hasworkedinover40 GeologicalSurvey­DivisionalDirectorforGroundwater countriesincludingthoseintheMekongRiverbasin,Burkina andEnvironmentalSurveys(1990­99)andWorldBank­ Faso,Nicaragua,andVietnam,tonameafew. GroundwaterManagementAdvisoryTeamDirector (2000­08). Regional/Country experience:Hasundertakenproject workandpolicyadviceinseveralcountriesofLatinAmerica andtheCaribbean,Sub-SaharanAfrica,andtheSouthern andEasternAsiaregions,inadditiontoGreatBritain,Spain, andatEClevel. 4 Janusz Kindler Pete Kolsky Janusz.Kindler@is.pw.edu.pl pkolsky@worldbank.org ProfessorEmeritusofWaterResourcesandEnvironmental WaterandSanitationSpecialist,LCSUW,WorldBank, Systems,WarsawUniversityofTechnology,Facultyof WashingtonDC,USA EnvironmentalEngineering,Poland. http://www.worldbank.org http://eng.pw.edu.pl/ PrevioustomovingtoLCSUW,DrPeteKolskymanaged Hisprofessionalinterestsinclude:effectivewater theSanitation,HygieneandWastewaterSupportService governance,integratedwaterresourcesmanagement (SWAT)attheWorldBanksinceitsinceptionin2005.He (policy,planning,andoperationofwaterresourcesystems), istheself-described"focalpoint"oftheWaterAnchorat sustainabledevelopment,andmanagement.Heisformer theBank.Dr.Kolskyhasworkedinwaterandsanitation deanoftheFacultyofEnvironmentalEngineering.For engineeringfor35years,havingstartedasaruralwater thelast30years,ProfessorKindlerhashadseveral supplytechnicianinMadagascarin1973,whileonleave assignmentsathomeandabroad,includingstrategic fromuniversity.Dr.KolskyjoinedtheWorldBankGroupin planningofwaterresourcesmanagementintheVistula 2000asamemberoftheWaterandSanitationProgramin Riverbasin(Poland),LakeChadbasin(Africa),AralSea Abidjan,Coted'Ivoire,andbecameamemberoftheBank's basininCentralAsia,andtheKura-ArasRiverbasin(South WaterAnchorin2004. Caucasus).HismembershipsincludethePolishNational WaterResourcesCouncilandtheWaterResources Consulting/Research experience:Dr.Kolskyhas CommitteeofthePolishAcademyofSciences.From1976 workedforconsultingfirms,NGOs,andthegovernment to1983,hewasassociatedwiththeInternationalInstitute ofMozambique,inadditiontoatenyearstintasalecturer forAppliedSystemsAnalysisleadingawaterproject.In andseniorlecturerattheLondonSchoolofHygieneand 1982­1983,ProfessorKindlerchairedtheResources TropicalMedicineoftheUniversityofLondon.InLondon,he andEnvironmentResearchArea.In1990­1993,he focusedontheinterplaybetweenwaterinfrastructureand wasChairmanoftheBoardofTrusteesoftheRegional health,andservedasanAssociateDirectoroftheWELL EnvironmentalCenterforCentralandEasternEurope, ResourceCentreinWaterandEnvironmentalHealth.He Budapest.In1993­1997,hewasChairmanoftheScientific hasbeeninvolvedinthemanagementofshort-termexpert CommitteeofWaterResourcesofICSU(SCOWAR). supportservicestounderpininfrastructureinvestments HewasaSeniorWaterResourcesPlannerattheWorld throughthestartupofUSAID'sWaterandSanitationfor Bankfrom1992to1996.AttheWorldBank,heworked Health(WASH)Projectinthe1980s,atWELLinthe onselectedstrategicwaterresourcesandenvironmental 1990s,andnowattheBankthroughSWAT. issuesoftheformerSovietRepublics,Central/Eastern EuropeandtheMiddleEast.Heisanhonorarymemberof Regional/Country experience:Dr.Kolskyhasworked theHungarianHydrologicalSociety,aswellasamemberof extensivelyinAfrica,SouthAsia,andSoutheastAsia,and IAHS,IAHR,IWRAandAGU.In2000,hewashonoredby hasmostrecentlybeeninvolvedinruralwaterandsanitation IWRAwiththeChowMemorialEndowedLecturerAward. inHaiti,andwastewaterinvestmentinIran. Inthelastfewyears,hehasundertakenseveralproject reviewsfortheEuropeanCommission. Consulting/Research experience: consultanttothe MinistryofEnvironmentandNationalWaterAuthorityin Poland,USAID,andinternationalorganizationsincluding theWorldBank,UN,UNESCO,consultingengineerinthe privatesector. Regional/Country experience:Central/EasternEurope, CentralAsia,MiddleEast,Africa,Canada. 5 Robert H. Meade Pedro J. Restrepo potamundi@comcast.net pedro.restrepo@noaa.gov;pjrestrepo@hotmail.com ResearchhydrologistemeritusU.S.GeologicalSurvey. SeniorScientist,NationalWeatherService,SilverSpring, Denver,Colorado,USA. MD,USA. http://www.usgs.gov/ http://webdev1.weather.gov/ RobertH.Meadehasbeentheprincipalreportertothe FormerPresidentofOptimalDecisionEngineering U.S.Congressonsedimentationinestuaries.Hehas CorporationinBoulder,CO,Dr.Restrepopresently beenInvitedLecturerontechnicaltopicsofhisspecialty providesoverallsciencedirectionfortheOfficeof atnumerousuniversitiesandinstitutesinNorthAmerica, HydrologicDevelopmentoftheNationalWeatherService. SouthAmerica,Europe,andAsia;andpanelistfortheU.S. HeisamemberoftheExternalScienceAdvisoryBoardfor NationalResearchCouncilCommitteeontheReviewof theNOAA-CRESTprogram,andNWSrepresentativetothe theLouisianaCoastalProtectionRestorationProgram, InteragencySteeringCommitteeonModularEnvironmental andtheCommitteeonMissouriRiverRecoveryand Models. AssociatedSedimentManagementIssues.Dr.Meadehas receivedmanyawardsinhisprofessionallife,includingthe Consulting/Research experience:Hehasparticipated DistinguishedServiceAwardfromtheU.S.Departmentof inresearchprojectswiththeUSGeologicalSurvey,US theInterior,MendenhallLecturer,fromtheU.S.Geological BureauofReclamation,NASA,USCorpsofEngineers,EPA Survey,andtheRobertG.WetzelAward(Water-Quality andtheInteragencyCommitteeinWaterData.Dr.Restrepo Hydrology),fromtheAmericanInstituteofHydrology.He hasextensiveexperienceinconsultingandresearch receivedhisB.S.degreeingeologyfromtheUniversityof projectsrangingfromthedevelopmentofamultiple OklahomaandhisM.S.andPh.D.degreesingeologyfrom reservoiroptimizationsystemforfirmpowerdetermination, StanfordUniversity. tothedevelopmentofsurfaceandgroundwatermodels usedinconjunctionwiththeUSGSModularModeling Consulting/Research experience:Dr.Meadehada System,aswellasdevelopmentofwatershedmanagement distinguishedcareerasahydrologistandsedimentologist plans.Consultingforinternationalorganizationssuchas intheU.S.GeologicalSurvey,WaterResourcesDivision, theInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,hedevelopeda from1957to1996,andhydrologistemeritussince1996. DecisionSupportSystemforHydrologicModelingand Hisstudieshavecenteredonlandsubsidenceincentral implementationoftheModularModelingSystemand California;transportandstorageofsedimentinOrinocoand modelingforspecificwatersheds. AmazonriversofSouthAmerica;transportanddeposition ofsedimentinestuaries(includingMississippiRivermouth); Regional/Country experience:Hehasextensive assessmentofpollutantsandsedimentsinMississippiRiver, experienceinmanycountriesincludingPanama,Canada, amongothers. Peru,Greece,Ecuador,Venezuela,Mexico,Colombia, Argentina,andtheUnitedStates. Regional/Country experience: Dr.Meadehasextensive experienceintheUnitedStates,Brazil,Venezuela,Russia, andChina,andhehasworkedbrieflyinColombia,Peru, Argentina,andBelgium. 6 Jeff Richey Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe jrichey@u.washington.edu irodrigu@Princeton.EDU Professor,UniversityofWashington,Schoolof JamesS.McDonnellDistinguishedUniversityProfessorand Oceanography ProfessorofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,Princeton http://www.washington.edu/research/ University http://www.princeton.edu/cee/research/ ProfessorRichey'sprofessionalinterestsinclude:drainage basinandriverinebiogeochemistry,hydrologicalcycles, ProfessorRodríguez-IturbewasawardedtheStockholm sedimenttransport,andgasfluxes;fromfield,modeling WaterPrizein2002.HeisamemberoftheU.S.National andremotesensing;withafocusonlargedrainagebasins AcademyofEngineeringandmanyotheracademies andland-oceaninteractioninthecoastalzone.Hewas throughouttheworld.Hehasalsoreceivednumerous Vice-ChairmanoftheIGBPLandOceanInteractionin distinctionsincludingtheHortonMedal,theMacelwane theCoastalZoneprogram.HewasawardedtheMedalha Medal,theHydrologicSciencesAward,andtheLangbein AdemarCervellinideMeritoAcademico,bytheUniversityof LectureAwardoftheAmericanGeophysicalUnion.Hehas SãoPaulo. receivedtheHuberPrizeandtheV.C.ChowAwardofthe ASCE,theVenezuelanNationalSciencePrize,theMexico Consulting/Research experience: Hewasthe PrizeforScienceandTechnology,aswellasmanyother PrincipalInvestigatoroftheCarbonintheAmazonRiver distinctionsfromacademicandprofessionalsocieties.Heis Experiment(CAMREX),NASAEarthObservingSystem alsotherecipientofhonorarydoctordegreesandteaching (EOSRAM)andNASALBAAmazonprojects.HeisthePI awardsfromseveraluniversities. oftheNSFandNASAfundedSEA-BASINSprojectsin SoutheastAsia,withafocusontheMekong,workingwith Consulting/research experience: Thedynamicsofthe suchtransboundaryorganizationsastheMekongRiver interactionbetweenclimate,soil,andvegetationarethe Commission.HeistheleaderoftheUW"PugetSound mainfocusofProfessorRodríguez-Iturbe'sresearchgroup, RegionalSynthesisModel(PRISM)"project,tocreatea whichistryingtolinktherecentadvancesonthescaling "VirtualPugetSound." characteristicsofthedrainagenetwork(inariverbasin)with thedynamicsofsoilmoisture.Withtheaboveframework Regional/Country experience:Hehasworkedwith thegrouphopestoelucidatesomeofthemostfundamental theWorldBankandGEFonprojectsinBrazil,China, issuesoftheclimate-soil-atmosphereinteractionthatlieat Mozambique,LakeVictoriabasincountries,andBhutan. theheartofhydrology.Hehasalsocarriedoutconsulting workindifferenttypeofhydrologicprojectsintheUnited States,Venezuela,Spain,Peru,Ecuador,andBrazil. Regional/Country experience:LatinAmerica,United States,Europe. 7 Kenneth Strzepek Juan Valdés Strzepek@colorado.edu jvaldes@u.arizona.edu ProfessorofCivil,EnvironmentalandArchitectural DirectorofSAHRAandProfessoroftheDepartmentofCivil Engineering,VisitingProfessorofEconomicsandAffiliated EngineeringandEngineeringMechanicsandHydrologyand ProfessorinCollegeofArchitectureandPlanningatthe WaterResources,UniversityofArizona. UniversityofColoradoatBoulder. http://www.sahra.arizona.edu/;http://www.arizona.edu/ http://www.colorado.edu/ Dr.ValdésiscurrentlytheDirectoroftheNationalScience ProfessorStrzepekhasspent30yearsasaresearcher Foundation(NSF)ScienceandTechnologyCenter andpractitioneratthenexusofengineering,environmental, SAHRA(SustainabilityofSemi-AridRegionsandRiparian andeconomicssystemswitharecentfocusonimpacts Hydrology),amulti-institutioncentercomprisingUS ofclimatechangeondevelopment.Hisworkincludes universities,nationallaboratories,andforeignpartners.He applicationsofoperationsresearch,engineeringeconomics, isalsoaProfessorintheDepartmentsofCivilEngineering microeconomics,andenvironmentaleconomicstoabroad andEngineeringMechanicsandHydrologyandWater rangeofapplications:fromprojectscaletonationaland ResourcesattheUniversityofArizona,andserveson globalinvestmentpolicystudies.Heisco-recipientofthe theSteeringCommitteeoftheInternationalCenterfor 2007NobelPeacePrizeasoneofIPCCleadauthors. IntegratedWaterResourcesManagement(ICIWaRM). Previously,Dr.Valdésheldfacultyandadministration Consulting experience:national,stateandlocal positionsatTexasA&MUniversityandSimónBolívar governments,UnitedNations,theWorldBank,donor University(Venezuela). organizations,USAID,USEPAandUSconsultingfirms Consulting/research experience:Dr.Valdés'areasof Regional/country experience:severalcountriesinAfrica, researchinterestaretheuseofclimateprojectionsand China,Austria itsimpactonwaterresourcesinaridregions,andthe managementofwaterresourcessystemsunderuncertainty andchangingconditions.Hehasbeenaconsultantto internationalorganizationsincludingtheWorldBank,the Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,UNDPandgovernment agencies. Regional/Country experience:LatinAmerica,United States,Africa,Europe 8 ANNEX III. Presentations SESSION 1 | Abel Mejia ­ Introduction Linking Research and Policy Hydrologic World Bank Analysis Projects Abel Mejia Water Sector Manager World Bank November 24, 2008 9 SESSION 1 | Abel Mejia ­ Introduction (continued) Water: essential to sustain life, a core sector of the economy Water Footprint: about 16% of global water use is not for domestic consumption but for export). Related to: gross national income; consumption pattern; climate; water use efficiency. Major challenges: Some 1.1 billion people don't have access to safe drinking water; 2.6 billion lack basic sanitation. By 2025, some 3.5 billion people will live in places where water is scarce or becoming scarce. Water as an strategic asset for the Bank Water for food Water for people Water for energy WRM and Environment, 10 SESSION 1 | Abel Mejia ­ Introduction (continued) Challenges and Concerns Hydrologic problems becoming more complex · Urbanization and megacities · Interest on rainfed agriculture · Infrastructure designed under "stationaity" hydrology · Historical records no longer the backbone of hydrological design · Watershed responses to changes in lanscape Disconnect between policy (conceptual) and end- benefits to end-users Diminishing resources for basic data collection non- Research and application on non-converging tracks Scientific Knowledge ·Data collection methods ·Remote sensing and GIS ·Ecohydrology ·Land-ocean interaction ·Modeling ·Event forecasting ·IWRM ·IUWM, etc. Need to develop a better understanding of how scientific knowledge in hydrology and water resources can help to inform policy and operational dialogue; and support project decisions to cope with rising challenges Policy and Institutions Programs and ·Water policies, strategies, plans and legislation Projects ·Water allocation ·Integrated watershed ·Demand management management ·Water pricing ·Water supply and ·Tariffs sanitation ·Utilities ·Pollution control ·Basin organizations ·Irrigation and drainage ·Ecosystems approach ·Water efficiency ·Ecological flows, etc. ·Hydropower, etc. 11 SESSION 1 | Abel Mejia ­ Introduction (continued) Why and what is HEF? Launched April 2008 as part of these expert services · To improve assistance to clients in planning, design and operation of water resources projects · To strengthen Bank assistance to countries in addressing complex water resources problems · To enhance Bank's capability to support clients' new and existing hydraulic infrastructure to cope with present trend of hydrologic and watershed changing conditions Composition and activities of HEF high- An expert panel (7 high-level consulting members), A roster of hydrologists (over 150 consultant hydrologists of different specialties) Provides (on demand) high level expert advice, as well as project - focused hydrology and water management services to the regions Organizes and conducts technical events; prepares tech notes and reports for publication HEF support across the Project Cycle HEF HEF HEF HEF HEF Currently providing technical support to 18 projects in 16 countries located in all Bank regions 12 SESSION 1 | Abel Mejia ­ Introduction (continued) Underlying questions for workshop topics How will countries cope with the increasing demand for water resource system benefit optimization and distribution, especially those that are part of large transboundary river basins? How extreme temperatures and precipitation regimes interact with watershed vegetation and other geomorphological variables? What would be the effect of increased watershed erosion in river sediment transport and deposition and the economic life of reservoirs and other hydraulic infrastructures? How land ­ ocean interactions could be considered in policy and project design How to consider the effect of changing hydrological regimes on storage volume, flow regulation and security of reservoirs? How can evaporation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture be managed to help rainfed agriculture cope with climate variability and changing conditions? Expected answers to nagging questions Are long historical records meaningful under changing climate conditions? What is the time horizon for climate change significantly water- effecting water-use project design and operation? Can data limitations be overcome and how? Can remote satelite- sensing and satelite-based data be used successfully for that purpose? What are the best methodologies for planning and design water infrastructure under data limitations? How can water be incorporated into national and regional development strategies and plans? Is IWRM, suitable for that purpose? If not, how should it be redefined? time- Can the time-lag between science and practice for water water- policy and water-related operations be shortened and how? What can the Bank do to best make the connection between water scientists and water practitioners? 13 SESSION 1 | Abel Mejia ­ Introduction (continued) 14 Thank you SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen Workshop on hydrological analysis to inform Bank policies and projects: bridging the gap Hydrology Expert Facility Washington 24-25 November 2008 Application of integrated approaches in water resources management, beyond the conceptual phase Prof. Torkil Jønch-Clausen Managing Director, DHI Water Policy Part 1 IWRM ­ theory and practice 15 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The challenges Serious water challenges to sustain population and economic growth ... · Water for basic needs (drinking water and sanitation) · Water for food · Water for the growing cities · Water for energy · Water for industrial development · Water for other needs - all to be affected by climate change 16 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The food challenge - a ,,real water problem Securing basic water needs takes 50 l/cap/day => a political will problem! Securing our basic diet takes 2500 l/cap/day => A water problem ! Particularly with - More poor from 1 to 2 meals per day - More well-off to protein/meat diets The urban water challenge - the growing, and thirsty, mega cities Large cities 2015 Large cities 2005 17 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The energy challenge - shifting towards more hydro and biomass · 5-8% annual growth in electricity consumption in most Asian countries · Climate => more focus on renewable energy · Biomass and hydropower 96% of renewable energy => pressure on water - ex. mainstream hydropower dams on the Mekong · Bio-fuel production as an energy solution, but with a significant water bill - 1000-2000 l water per 1 l bio-ethanol The environment challenge - ecosystems paying the price ? · 50% of all freshwater species disappeared in the 20th century · Accelerating pollution · Big rivers not reaching the sea (ex. Yellow river) · Lake disappearing (ex. Aral Sea) 18 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The poverty challenge A sad statistic: · 2/3 of people without access to clean water live un less than 2 $/day · 1/3 live on less than 1$/day Water is essential to achieve the Millennium Development Goals , particularly · Poverty and hunger · Health · Water and sanitation · Environmental degradation Water and the poverty target · Water as a production factor for the poor · Water infrastructure as development catalyst · Reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts · Reduced ecosystem degradation - better livelihoods · Reduced water related diseases - deaths! 19 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Water and the hunger goal · Grain production from irrigation · Water for subsistence agriculture, gardens, livestock and tree crops · Water for fisheries and other foods · Resilience to droughts · Better nutritional status for healthy people Water and climate change 20 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The overall picture IPCC WG 2 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: 5 key impacts of global warming : ·Water ·Ecosystems ·Food All linked to water! ·Coasts ·Health The overall picture Global warming will "hit through water": Through climate change : - hydrological cycle, water balance - sea level rise - water temperatures Through increased climate variability : - floods - droughts 21 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The overall picture Some general trends: Wet getting wetter ­ dry getting drier - 10-40% Changes in snow cover -> 1/6 of World population affected Some geographical hot spots - Africa South of Sahara - large coastal cities - mega deltas in Asia - small island states - hurting the poor in the poor regions! From IPCC models to on-the-ground reality The challenge: Reducing uncertainties, down-scaling the models x = 12 km 22 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) A message to take from the IPPC report Energy is the focus for mitigation Water must become focus of adaptation IWRM and adaptation to climate change IPCC 4th Assessment 2007: "it can be expected that the paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management will be increasingly followed around the world .. which will move water, as a resource and a habitat, into the centre of policy making. This is likely to decrease the vulnerability of freshwater systems to climate change" 23 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Towards IWRM Governance - water - people Governance Natural resource Service delivery Empowerment base system Rights Water People Towards Integrated Water Resources Management 24 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Some governance challenges Moving from sectoral to holistic management - to mainstreaming water in the political economy Moving from supply to demand management Considering the value and cost of water Separating management/regulation and service provision Sharing water between states Managing with the people, involving stakeholders Ensuring environmentally sustainable development Building the capacity at all levels The Dublin principles 1. Fresh water as a finite and vulnerable resource. 2. Water development and management based on a participatory approach 3. Women playing a central part 4. Water as an economic good with an economic value in competing uses World Bank 1993 Policy Paper: 1. Ecological principle 2. Institutional principle 3. Instrument principles 25 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) IWRM Components Economic Environmental Equity Efficiency Sustainability Management Enabling Institutional Instruments Environment Framework Assessment Policies Central - Local Information Legislation River Basin Allocation Structure Instruments Public - Private Balance "water for livelihood" and "water as a resource" The three "E"s The three "pillars" of IWRM Managing competing uses: Integrated Water Resources Management Cross-sectoral integration · Enabling environment Water Water Water Water · Institutions for for for for people food nature energy · Management and tools other uses World Bank version (Water Resources Sector Strategy): Political economy of water management Institutional framework Management instruments Development and management of infrastructure 26 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The basin as the basic management unit - European law for 27 countries! - RBOs as the overriding agenda in Asia IWRM from Johannesburg 2002 to CSD 2008 27 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The WSSD (Johannesburg 2002) target "Develop integrated water resources management and water efficiency plans by 2005, with support to developing countries" World leaders agreed to "IWRM"! Roadmaps for implementation of IWRM plans The proposed IWRM Roadmap: Preliminary concept The UN-Water Copenhagen Initiative 2007 (including the World Bank) Vision Monitoring Situation analysis Awareness Participation Commitment Implementation Capacity Strategy IWRM Plan 28 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Reviewing milestones 2009 ­ enabling conditions in place and reforms initiated? Examples: ·Laws revised and amended ·Cross-sectoral coordination frameworks established ·Regulatory and economic instruments in place Reviewing milestones in 2012 ­ reforms taking effect, behaviour changing? Examples: ·Legislation and standards taking effect ·Sector ministries actively coordinating implementation ·Inappropriate water allocations being changed 29 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Reviewing milestones in 2015 ­ key water constraints related to MDGs mitigated ? Examples: · Domestic wastewater treated, reducing diarrhoea · Infrastructure for water storage put in place, resulting in improved crop production · Rural poor protected from floods and droughts · Target 10 on WSS reached · Slum dwellers protected from floods GWP surveys on IWRM plans: Global status - improving, but still a long way Total World figures : 2006 2003 · Good progress: 21% 13% · Some steps: 53% 47% · Initial stage: 26% 40% CSD 2008: Now 74% of countries "under way" 30 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Findings in 2008 survey - ex. institutional capacity Figure 4 ­ Institutional capacity for carrying out various IWRM inspired functions. The ratings that the respondents were asked to give were: 0 = function not established, 1= function has many gaps in quality and coverage, 2 = function has some gaps in quality and coverage, 3 = function operates at realistic goal levels . High and low scores High scores: · Policy formulation · Drafting laws · Environmental assessment Low scores: · Cost recovery · Facilitating demand management · Protecting aquatic ecosystems 31 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Findings in 2008 survey - ex. inclusion of IWRM principles in water laws High and low scores High scores: · Participation of stakeholders · Users pays* · River basin management Low scores: · Role of women · Public hearing · Separation of management and service provision * Note: "User pays" scores high in law, but "cost recovery" scores low in institutional capacity! 32 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) 33 Part 2 IWRM in India The Orissa case SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Adopting IWRM principles National Committee on IWRM in 1999 Active partner in Global Water Partnership National Water Policy 1987 -> 2002 - "multi-sectoral" and "multi-disciplinary" - "participatory" - "hydrological unit" => Inspiring state water policies (including Orissa) The Maharashtra example Apex bodies: - State Water Council (chaired by Chief Minister) - State Water Board (chaired by Chief Secretary) Water Resources Regulatory Authority - Establish system of entitlements * volumetric rights for categories of water use * defined at basin and sub-basin level * water market system controlled by the WWRA - Establish a water tariff system Introduction of river basin agencies 34 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The legal framework - a long way to go.. Comprehensive water acts lacking: - No umbrella framework to regulate water in all its dimensions Groundwater acts slowly coming: - Groundwater "model bill" of 1992 , 1996, 2005 - Groundwater Acts in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh Towards IWRM in Orissa 35 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) "Well endowed" with water - yet Water availability in Orissa - today: Average 3,300 cum/cap/yr >> UN stress limit However: - 80% rain in 3 months => Plenty during monsoon, stress during Winter (rabi) - 30% imported from upstream states Water availability in Orissa ­ in the future: - Population and economic growth in Orissa - Population and economic growth in upstream states Estimated 30% reduction in water availability per capita by 2050, not counting climate change! From "irrigation takes all" to a new balance Water use today: - Irrigation 93% - Domestic use 3% - Industrial use 4% Water use in the future - Urban water demands increasing three-fold - Industry: from 19% -> 35% of GDP - Ecology: Second priority in State Water policy - Other uses: energy, navigation, recreation/tourism 36 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) "First steps" towards IWRM in Orissa: The State Water Policy 2007 - Priorities for allocation 1. Drinking and domestic use 2. Ecology* 3. Irrigation, agriculture, fisheries 4. Hydropower 5. Industries 6. Navigation and other uses - RBOs with stakeholder participation - Macro-level multi-sectoral river basin plans - Beneficiaries covering O&M costs, and some capital costs - Respecting traditions, tribal ethos etc. - State exploring possibility of regulatory authority Some key issues 37 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) IWRM in Orissa Some key issues Addressing use sectors (in order of State Water Policy) - Drinking water and domestic use - urban growth - water losses - Ecology - environmental flows - Irrigation and related activities - efficiency and productivity - demand and supply management - involving users (PPs) - dialogues with other users IWRM in Orissa Some key issues Addressing use sectors (in order of State Water Policy) - Hydropower - move towards desired mix of 60-40% hydro-thermal - Industries - rapidly growing demands - "accepted" entitlements - Navigation , recreation, tourism and other uses - slowly growing demands 38 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) IWRM in Orissa Some key issues Other issues - Inter-state water sharing - 30% from upstream states - Inadequate storage capacity to capture monsoon flows - 45 cum/cap against 220 cum/cap for India (and 5,000 cum/cap for US and Australia) - Groundwater management - majority of domestic supply, 14% of irrigation use - overexploitation in coastal areas - uncontrolled, no groundwater act IWRM in Orissa Some key issues Other issues - Water quality management - accelerate urban wastewater treatment - develop and enforce pollution standards - Extreme events - expected acceleration with climate change - structural and non-structural measures - Watershed management - integration of land-water-forest management - Salinity intrusion - depending on upstream measures 39 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Some key constraints IWRM in Orissa Some key constraints - Lack of awareness and information - government and general public - inadequate data base for informed decisions - Traditional paradigms and old laws - supply fix, rather than demand management - legal basis: Irrigation Act 1959, amended 1993 - Dominance of irrigation - DOWR still engineering/irrigation focused - History of compartmentalized administration - no cross-sectoral dialogue mechanism at local level - State Water Resources Board meeting infrequently - Lack of involvement of users in decision-making 40 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) IWRM in Orissa Some key constraints - Separation of surface- and groundwater management - Separation of water quantity and quality management - Lack of entitlement and tariff system - gap between Policy and reality on water pricing - no system of entitlement for allocation - Large degree of "self supply" in informal sector - Lack of capacity at all levels - "limits to growth" at basin/local level Two priority challenges 41 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) IWRM in Orissa Two priority challenges 1. Informed dialogues across sectors of the government, and among stakeholders at all levels 2. Creation of an accepted system of water allocation and charging, backed by legislation and institutional change Towards informed dialogues Dialogues across sectors.. - Dialogue between key sectors using and affecting water resources Dialogues between-stakeholders .. - Dialogue between key stakeholder groups: users, private sector, government State level Basin level Local level - District - Block - Gram Panchayat, PP 42 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Towards a system of water allocation and charging Objectives - Financial sustainability - Incentives to improve water efficiency The "minimum solution" - Raising charges to realistic levels - Allocation through dialogue at basin level The "maximum solution" - Towards a ,,modern system of entitlements and charges - and all with or without a State Water Act Towards a Roadmap for IWRM in Orissa 43 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) IWRM in Orissa Towards a IWRM Roadmap KEY KEY ISSUES CONSTRAINTS STATE WATER POLICY IWRM ROADMAP => small steps, based on the State Water Policy The IWRM Roadmap Proposed actions Enabling environment 1. Develop a revised State Water Plan : an IWRM Plan for Orissa, based on 11 River Basin Plan - mainstreaming water in the State economy! 2. Review the legal framework for water resources management: develop a Water Act for Orissa 44 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The IWRM Roadmap Proposed actions Institutional development 3. Review and revitalize the State Water Resources Board, and consider a State Water resources Council 4. Review and decide on a State Water resources Regulatory Authority 5. Develop the RBO structure in Orissa, starting with selected pilot basins The IWRM Roadmap Proposed actions Institutional development 6. Develop and build capacity within DOWR in the IWRM Directorate ( - urgent first step!) 7. Develop institutional and human capacity at State, basin and local levels 8. Develop a multi-stakeholder Orissa Water Partnership 45 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The IWRM Roadmap Proposed actions Management instruments 9. Develop and awareness, advocacy and education program for IWRM 10. Develop and water allocation and charging system 11. Develop a hydrological information system 12. Develop a system to address environmental flow requirements Part 3 Some final reflections 46 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Some conclusions and reflections On the global IWRM agenda · Countries (and states and basins) have taken IWRM principles to heart: the train is moving · Translating IWRM principles into action takes awareness and capacity ­ and hence time and patience ­ taking small steps (as exemplified by the Orissa case) · The ,,global water elite does not have that patience, and now shy away from "IWRM" rhetoric ­ leaving countries confused and frustrated Some conclusions and reflections On the IWRM and the World Bank · The Bank 1993 Water Policy and 2004 Water Sector Strategy reflects IWRM principles ­ however without explicitly expressing it. And that in contrast to its Client countries · The ,,renewed focus on infrastructure development should not be at the expense of focus on improved water governance ­ and IWRM ­ to ensure the right infrastructure · The Bank rightly argues for a "pragmatic but principled" (IWRM?) approach 47 SESSION 1 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Some conclusions and reflections On the IWRM and the World Bank: two challenges · At the policy level: Addressing water holistically, getting water "out of the box", and mainstreamed in all sectors if the economy · At the basin/local level: Building the bridge between the ideals and principles of IWRM, and the realities of old traditions, little awareness and low capacity - by taking small steps and "picking the low hanging fruits first" Thank you! tjc@dhigroup.com 48 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler . The World Bank WORKSHOP HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS TO INFORM BANK POLICIS AND PROJECTS: BRIDGING THE GAP Washington, D.C., November 24-25, 2008 WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT Janusz Kindler Warsaw University of Technology 1 Purpose of the paper To synthesize and summarize the state of the art of water demand management and to reflect how this knowledge can be applied to water sector policies and water projects 2 49 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Plan of the presentation Introductory comments Fundamentals of water demand management The modeling approaches Residential (household) water demands Water demand of industrial plants Agricultural water demands Urban water demands Water demand management at the river basin and national levels Concluding remarks 3 Water stressed regions today (< 1000 m3/y per capita; withdrawals/av. runoff < 0.4): N. Africa, the Mediterranean, M. East, N.East, S. Asia, N.China, Australia, the USA, Mexico, N.E. Brazil, 4 West Coast of S. America ,,Climate change and Water", IPCC Technical Paper VI, June 2008 50 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Introductory comments Resources availability may be increased, but the existing supplies must be managed better Shift from the traditional supply-oriented extensive approach to demand oriented intensive approach (Sewel and Rouche, 1974) Demand-supply integration within the framework of IWRM ,,The old paradigm of designing the cheapest reliable supply with little attention to demand determinants, pricing structures, and financing policies is no longer suitable" (Gilbert White, 2006) 5 The different levels of water demand analysis 6 51 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) water- Intake water-use activity 7 Fundamentals Water USES: intake, onsite, instream Water DEMANDS: WTP for goods,services or inputs to the production processes q = f(x1 + x2 + ... + xk ) The elasticity of demand with respect to one of the demand- determining variables such as x1 , is the percentage by which the quantity demanded q changes for a 1% change in the variable x1 Water REQUIREMENTS 8 52 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) The purpose of managing demand for water The ultimate purpose of managing demand for water is to ensure that a given supply is allocated as close as possible to its ,,optimal" use pattern; Optimal allocation = the price of water users pay for their marginal units of water withdrawal, consumptive use and wastewater disposal services should reflect the marginal cost of supplying these units; 9 Categories of demand management measures Economic (incentive-based) - pricing systems, subsidies, low-interest loans Technical - dual plumbing systems, modern irrigation equipment Educational - information prowision and conservation campaigns Regulatory - use and consumption regulations, plumbing & landscaping codes Administrative/restrictive -linencing, rationing Operational control - leakage control, pressure control 10 53 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) The modeling aproaches The theoretical framework of economic theory of consumer demand and theory of production and input demand underlines most of the models built and applied (see Hanemann, 1998; Renzetti, 2002; and others) 11 The modeling aproaches Econometric models: multivariate regression, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins,.. product 12 54 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) The econometric model Specifies the statistical relationship that is believed to hold between the various economic quantities pertaining to a particular economic under study: Steps in the modeling process: - specifying the model - choosing functional forms - estimating model parameters - veryfying and validationg the model - using the model 13 The programming approach; water demands of industrial plant (A steel mill as a set of unit processes) 14 55 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) The modeling aproaches Mathematical programming models (LP, NLP, etc.) - model of an activity as a combination of unit proceses (matrix A), including those relating to water utilization system, written in the form of inequalties, where the variables are the levels of operation of the processes, and the inequalities express constraints on the overall system or its parts - min Z = c x; s.t. A x > b and x > 0 15 Residential (household) water demands The differences between high-income and developing countries Historically, first water use forecasts were needed to support long-range water planning, supply adequacy evaluation, and financial planning Prediction; forecast, projection, extrapolation Bivariate models, Q = a + b X Multivariate models, Q = a + c1x1 + ... + cnxn Log-linear models 16 56 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Residential (household) water demands Models available mostly for residential water use, applied to detailed single famly dwellings, a.o. in IWR MAIN urban model The consensus is that residential water demands are price-inelastic (the parallel use of other demand management meaures is recommended) Price and water quality ­ charges (taxes) against the outflow of treated effluent Pricing and water supply reliability ­ there is no market for reliability and no explicit price for it The case of intermittent supplies in developing countries Increased block tariff and the three classes of resdential water users: high-, middle-, and low income 17 Water demands of industrial plants All industrial plants use water as an input to their production activities ­ cooling and technological water use In modeling industrial water demand relationships both econometric and programming approaches are used (more often programming than econometric) Combining econometric and engineering method's to represent firm's water use patterns Usually the objective function that measure a firm's revenues as the sum of products of output prices and quantities The fundamental concept ­ production processes are characterized by some degree of substitutability between inputs 18 57 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Water demands of industrial plants Knowledge required on what's going on and among many unit processes; the major problem how to consider a wide range of possible combination of alternative unit process configurations 19 Agricultural water demands In several countries agricultural sector uses more water than all other sectors combined Most of that water via precipitation stored in the soil profile ­ only 15% via irrigation Agricultural water demands are ,,derived" demands Efficiency in irrigation water use generally low Contribution of irrigated agriculture to food production will grow but at a lower rate than in the past ­ new emphasis on small-scale rainfed agriculture 20 58 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) The area equipped for irrigation as percentage of cultivated land by country 21 FAO, 2003 Agricultural water demands Climate changes will increase irrigation demand in the majority of world regions due to a combination of decreased rainfall and increased evaporation arising from incrased temperatures (Climate Change & Water, IPCC Technical Paper VI, June 2008) Water-related adaptations to climate change: - reduction in water demand for irrigation by changing the cropping calendar, crop mix, irrigation method, and area planted - virtual water - promotion to indigenous practices for sustainable water use - expanded use of economic incentices, including metering and pricing to encourage water conservation 22 59 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Agricultural water demands Both econometric and programming models are applied In the first approach (early work by Heady in the US is often mentioned) production functions are produced to capture relationships between crop yield and various production input factors, including water But often the complexities of the agricultural production cannot be adequately captured by the production functions Programming models allow for more complete representation of the agricultural production systems and they can be used parametrically to derive approximate demand functions 23 One type crop, one type animal system 24 Gouevsky and Maidment, 1984 60 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Urban water demands Unique in its fragmentation, in terms of both physical utilization of water and the institutional structures that govern its use. Residential, industrial, commercial, and public uses as well as system losses and unaccounted for Unaccounted for vary substantially accross the world Application of economic water demand measures in the comercial and public sectors ­ not many studies available In the commercial sector short-run elasticities in the range of ­0.150 to ­0.250 25 Urban water demands The IWR MAIN Water Demand Analysis Software, Version 6 designed for: - translating demographic, housing and business statistics into estimates of water demands - using projections of populations, housing, and employment to derive baseline forecasts of water demand The model disagregates total urban water use spatially (county, watershed, service area), temporally (average daily, seasonally) and sectorally 26 61 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) IWR- IWR-MAIN Inputs and Outputs Opitz et al., 1998 27 IWR- IWR-MAIN The model has the ability to address the long-term water savings impacts of different demand management (conservation) practices These water savings can be incorporated into long-term forecasts of water demand A new module facilitates the conduct of benefit/cost analysis of demand management alternatives Sensitivity analyses can be conducted ­ ,,what if" scenarios regarding projected changes in the determinants of water demand and assessment of their impact on long-term water demands 28 62 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) Water demand at the river basin and national levels Interaction of multitude water-users interact sharing their sources of water and sinks for wastewater disposal In addition intake water users interact with instream users, which are non-priced but each of them has a specific in-use value (e.g. ecosystem services) In the river basin scale, water demand management issues become part of the resource allocation problem, involving both the supply and demand sides of the water equation 29 Water demand at the river basin and national levels The principal question emerges how to include demand management issues in the context of IWRM scenarios and policy alternatives It is necessary to"shift the focus of analysis away from the estimation of water demands towards the use of that information" (Renzetti, 2002). 30 63 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) The integrated river basin planning process 31 Rodrigo et al., 1995 The integrated river basin planning process The case of new generation of the hydro- economic regional and river basin models They often employ directly econometrically estimated demand equations, a computable general equilibrium approach, input-output analysis and mathematical programming in combination with engineering, hydrologic and nature conservation techniques River basin studies employing this approach are more and more frequent available from different countries of the world 32 64 SESSION 1 | Janusz Kindler (continued) National demands At this level all available studies and statistics refer to national water use rather than water demand However, irrespective of the name used, these water use characteristics should be composed from the river basin estimates, originating from the studies where water demand management option have been explicitely taken into account. 33 Concluding remarks The both econometric and programming water demand models have a role ­ often complementary The large hydro-economic supply-demand river basin models are generally easier to run and debug if they are constructed as modular, formally linked, but not necssarily fully integrated structures The lack of data on water use and volumetric pricing makes water demand studies difficult More behavioral studies needed to understand better choice of inputs and outputs as a function of prices and preferences More studies needed on water demands of ecosystem services 34 65 SESSION 1 | Juan B. Valdés Managing Droughts and Floods under Changing Environments Juan B. Valdés NSF Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) Civil Engineering, The University of Arizona Intl. Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) World Bank, 24 November 2008 Washington, D.C. Acknowledgments ·Julio Cañon Barriga (SAHRA) ·Francina Dominguez (SAHRA) ·Aleix Serrat-Capdevila (SAHRA) ·Javier Gonzalez (University of Castilla La Mancha, Spain) ·Mary Black (SAHRA) 2 66 SESSION 1 | Juan B. Valdés (continued) Presentation Outline · Introduction · Characterization and Forecasting · Climate Variability and Change · Water Resources Management under Changing Conditions · Final Comments 3 IPCC: "Climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle" changes in changes in variability averages/ trends (magnitude, severity, duration) 4 67 SESSION 1 | Juan B. Valdés (continued) Drought Recurrence Projections 5 Presentation Outline · Introduction · Characterization and Forecasting ­ Drought characterization ­ Flood characterization ­ Forecasting and Teleconnections · Climate Variability and Change · Water Resources Management under Changing Conditions · Final Comments 6 68 SESSION 1 | Juan B. Valdés (continued) Drought Definition "A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area" (Huschke, R.E., ed. 1959, Glossary of Meteorology. Boston, American Meteorological Society, 638 p.) · Abnormal: a hydrologic event that requires a long record to characterize · Sufficiently prolonged: duration characteristic · Serious imbalance: severity characteristic 7 Drought Characterization Challenges · Multiple characteristics: magnitude, duration, intensity/peak · Larger areal extent and longer duration than floods8 · Longer records to characterize Severity (Area), S 6 Drought i 4 · Many 2 indices: PDSI,Duration, DPHDI, DFI Drought SPI, i PDSI 0 · Aridity, desertification, drought -2 -4 · Teleconnections P -6 Drought Peak, i Drought Events -8 Time Interval 8 69 SESSION 1 | Juan B. Valdés (continued) Drought Spatial Characteristics (from J. Betancourt, USGS) 9 Coronado's Entrada 1541 Significant Cultural Events 10 70 SESSION 1 | Juan B. Valdés (continued) Alternative Drought Index: DFI 1) Look for the sequence ending at t 4) Estimate mean TR of that produces larger e.p.f. [WORST sequences with larger e.p.f. for P · Drought Frequency Index (DFI) (González and DROUGHT SITUATION at time t]. equal length or shorter. TR ~ DFI Valdés, 2004, 2007): DFI ­ Statistically quantifies the deviation from the normality of multidimensional events ­ Requires defining the reference extreme tpole t to quantify approximation3) Cumulative function of persistence of w =sequence i extreme conditions (c.f.p.e.), i.e. ­ Represents deviation in terms of returnmax) analyzed Sp(epfi < 25 % 25 - 50 % 50 - 75 % 75 - 100 % 0 25 50 100 Km Tana Basin, Kenya Green Water Credits 117 SESSION 2 | Peter Droogers (continued) Way Forward Satellite observations: rainfall (TRMM) 118 SESSION 2 | Peter Droogers (continued) Satellite observations: groundwater (GRACE) Satellite observations: ET Rio Grande, New Mexico, June 16, 2003 (Source Hong and Hendrickx, 2003 119 SESSION 2 | Peter Droogers (continued) Models setup using Remote Sensing SEBAL SWAT Discussion / summary · Guiding principles ­ Rainfall and inflows = only source ­ ET = only consumer ­ Distinction · beneficial vs. non beneficial consumption ­ Location of area under consideration · Remote sensing ­ present and past situation ­ high spatial resolution · Models ­ better understanding ­ scenario analysis · RS to feed models 120 SESSION 2 | Peter Droogers (continued) 121 Thank You SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey Land-Ocean Interactions: Human, Freshwater, Coastal, and Ocean Interactions under Changing Environments Jeffrey E. Richey University of Washington, Seattle, USA Hydrology Expert Facility (HEF) Workshop: HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS TO INFORM BANK POLICIES AND PROJECTS: BRIDGING THE GAP November 24-25, 2008 bidos The assignment: "Land-Ocean interactions, including human, river and ocean interactions under changing environments. This topic will cover the effects of delivery of terrestrial materials to freshwater and coastal ecosystems, and the interactions of hydrology, erosion, sediment transport and deposition, biogeochemistry, and estuary mouth dynamics. This topic will also cover the various hydrologic approaches under these changing environments..." bidos 122 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Hypothesis: That integrated quantitative and visual science knowledge is "relevant" to policy process · What is the World Bank "portfolio" in this arena? ·"A template:" What are the overall processes and magnitudes involved in the transfer of materials from land through river systems to the sea? · Specific Examples, including Mekong case study · Creation of a "Virtual River/Coastal Basin," with a "Dynamic Information Framework" bidos World Bank Project Portfolio Active, Proposed, and Pipelined projects to do with environment and natural resource management: ~ 1984 ­ current, n=2427 600 400 200 0 123 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Sector Categories Inland Waters Coastal & Marine 160 20 120 15 Biodiversity 80 10 ICM 40 5 Pollution 0 Reconstruction 0 Sew& San: Sewerage & Sanitation I & D: Irrigation & Drainage GWSFP: General water, sanitation and flood protection sector GAFFS General agriculture, fishing and forestry sector ·The projects deal most directly with immediate services to be provided (water supply, irrigation, etc). ·The projects dealing with the consequences of (sudden) change, such as floods or droughts, are considerably fewer. ·While clearly the sectors within each one of the major categories are highly related to each other, in an ecosystem/water cycle sense, there was surprisingly little overlap between them (through the filtering process). ·Overall, this suggests the need for enhanced multi- sector cross-over and integration, and the need to pay more attention to the emerging ideas of "ecosystem goods and services." 124 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) THE GLOBAL C CYCLE SCOPE RAPID ASSESSMENT PATHWAYS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 THROUGH FLUVIAL SYSTEMS Transient CW+CS+OC+OG Conventional Wisdom CW + Continent Sediment CW+CS+(POC,DOC) Atmosphere River Atm 0.6 1.3 2.6 1.3 1.8 Cont Sed Soils Outgassing Dams Coastal Streams Rivers Zone DIC sea ? ? Riparian DOC sea Floodplains 2x POC sea 2.5x Net Atm 0.3 --0.6 - 1.1 - 1.6 - 0.2 Gt C/y -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Richey, J.E. (in press). Ch. 15. Field et al (eds) A SCOPE/GCP Rapid Assessment Project. Island Press. 125 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) UNCERTAINTIES IN SEDIMENT/POC LOADING BY GEOGRAPHIC REGION Tg/y 350 "Traditional": 200 300 Area-loading: 350 Calc. Yield: 800 "Best Guess: ~500 ish" 250 200 150 100 50 0 Region-Specific Evaluations World Bank projects and interests cover, of course, a wide range of sectors. ..... 126 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Coastal subsidence and sea-level rise: Human related impacts to deltas Deltas respond to both landward and seaward pressures. Construction of levees and alteration of natural dispersal processes decreases sediment input to the delta plain, while eustatic sea level and erosive storm activity continues to rise with warming ocean temperatures. The result is that the world's deltaic coastlines are extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic change. The Mississippi 127 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) The High Aswan Dam * Trapped almost 100% of sediment delivery to the estuary, and drastically altered the hydrograph. ·Accelerated coastal erosion and straightening of the shoreline, * reduction in wetland size, ·Increased landward incursion of saline groundwater, with buildup of salt and pollutants to toxic levels in the wetlands and delta plain. ·Seasonal floods capable of flushing agricultural products & pollutants created by Egypts expanding population are reduced, or eliminated. Coastal Estuaries and Wetlands Role of coastal wetlands in fisheries, agriculture, biodiversity, and coastal protection www.prism.washington.edu 128 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Carbon in Coastal Wetlands ...a substantial but tricky role * Mangrove forests appear to provide a double dividend with respect to mitigation and adaptation in addressing climate change at the local level. * But have to sort out the C cycle under different conditions of mangrove and wetland (including mudflats) disturbance. * Net C storage appears to be very closely related to hydrology and exposure of soils and methane release. Good measures are needed, if progress is to be made on possible carbon credits and offsets through mangrove reforestation or protection. .. . * Stresses importance of keeping hydrology intact Matang Mangrove Forest, Malaysia iSIMANGALISO (ST LUCIA) WETLAND South Africa Developing GEF Project "The challenge faced by the Wetlands Authority is therefore to respond to the twin imperatives of conservation and development in a manner that aligns with the shift in national (and global) priorities from a strong focus on conservation-in-isolation to a new approach that integrates biodiversity conservation with regional development." 129 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Coral Reefs and Sediments Hydrology-Sediment Model Case Study: Floods, Droughts, and the Human Transformation of the Mekong River Basin 130 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) >4601 m 4001-4600 3001- 4000 1501- 3000 The Mekong River transboundary basin is 1001-1500 751- 1000 the worlds ... 301- 750 <300 m -8th largest in discharge (ca. 475 km3/yr), -12th largest in length (ca. 4,800 km), _ _ _ _ _ -21st largest in drainage area (ca. 795,000 km2) 30o _ _ - growing population of 75 million people... 25o _ _ MN Latitude oN CS 20o _ _ LP BH VT NP 15o _ _ BC YS MK UB 10o _ _ RS PK ST _ _ _ _ _ 90o 95o 100o 105o 110o TS Longitude oE PP * Sedentary agriculture claimed vast extents of forest and largely replaced swidden agriculture throughout the Mekong River basin, with reservoirs beginning upstream and on tributaries. * Mekong experienced floods causing great loss of life and material damage, as well as crop-deleterious droughts. These hydrologic disasters have been attributed to the above human-made changes ..... * Lack of scientific evidence on these issues hinders policymaking and international agreements, considering conflicting interests between countries, stakeholders, and between goals of conservation and development. 131 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) What happens if you "change" the Mekong? · How does land cover change in the Mekong affect the basins hydrologic regime, and the risk of flood and drought occurrence? In particular, what are the effects of replacing forest cover with permanent agriculture and current agriculture with forest? What are the effects of the shortened fallow periods used in swidden (slash and burn) agriculture? · How great an effect does the intense irrigation taking place in the Mun and Chi sub-basins of Northeastern Thailand have in the annual and in the dry season streamflow yields? Are those effects confined to the Mun and Chi rivers, or are there significant effects on the Mekong mainstream flows? · How do the reservoirs currently operating in the Mekong basin influence seasonal flow regimes? Mekong River Commission Secretariat, Vientiane 132 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) MEKONG DISCHARGE (m3/s) Observed Simulated 12000 15000 Chiang Saen Luang Prabang 15000 Vientiane 8000 10000 10000 4000 5000 5000 0 0 0 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 30000 30000 40000 Nakhon Phanom Mukdahan Pakse 30000 20000 20000 20000 10000 10000 10000 0 0 0 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 60000 10000 Stung Treng Figure 2 Penh Phnom VIC model schematic Tonle Sap Basin 40000 8000 40000 6000 20000 4000 20000 2000 0 0 0 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 L1 An "intermediate" product average monthly soil moisture saturation (% maximum water content) L2 ·Implications for flooding prediction "weeks out" ·Implications for drought prediction "weeks out" L3 Combine with regional climate model in near real- time.... 133 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Sediment Transport Quatre Bras Landsat 7 ETM+ Tonle Sap Jun 30 2007 MODIS 250m Chl Jun 30 2007 Relative Turbidity A. Subramanian, prelim. analysis 134 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) AVERAGE MONTHLYSTREAMFLOW IN 1980-2000 FOR SIMULATION SCENARIOS 4000 4000 Ubon Vientiane minus Chiang Saen 3000 3000 Flow Rate (m3/s) 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Current Current Historical (~1950) Historical Future (100yr) Future (100yr) Upland agr. (replace irrigated&bunded w/upland) No Swidden (replace w/forest) Mekong Mainstem &Tributary dams 135 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Retrospective runs (multiple reservoir approach) Example of future runs (A2 2010 3030) SO! ­ What happens to the Mekong river carbon cycle with the introduction of reservoirs? CH4 is 21x stronger than CO2 as a greenhouse gas ..... Manwan 136 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) CH4 Emissions downstream of Balbina reservoir Results here and elsewhere in the tropics confirm the significance of GHG emissions from tropical reservoirs, but stress the importance of: (1) 60 considering all the gas pathways upstream and downstream of the dams and (2) 40 taking into account the reservoir age when upscaling emissions rates at the global scale. 20 0 Ebullitative Diffusive Emission from Discharge through Oxidation loss emission emission reservoir turbine downstream from from turbine at downstream dam outflow from dam Hydropower cannot, a priori, be automatically assumed to be a ,,cleaner technology than thermal alternatives with respect to GHG emissions. Research is needed on a case by case basis to make this claim. Mekong organic carbon/gas dynamics are very "active," fed by terrestrial inputs as well as in situ production. The implication is that a cascade of reservoirs could be expected to have a very significant GHG footprint 137 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Development of the Mekong plume over the Monsoon season (JJAS) with max loading at the end of Aug/Sept (from Navy 1/12 Global HYCOM) (courtesy J.P. Montoya and A. Bracco) 138 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) CLIMATE CHANGE Synergy: What effects might change in watersheds have on plumes in tropical basins? LAND USE DAMS Express Societal Impact < -> "Biophysical" World 139 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) These targets represent a very complex set of intersecting issues of scale, cross-sector science and technology, education, politics, and economics. · Significant challenges for evaluation of past performances and especially for laying the basis for future decisions is how to analyze, in a quantitative manner, the multiple complex pathways and tradeoffs involved in a policy project, from small farms to regional implications. · A template where decision-makers can consider rigorous scenarios of alternative futures could play an important role in making complex environmental and economic decisions. * This requires an accurate understanding of linkages between water and multiple allocations, with the ability to quantitatively forecast individual and combined impacts of demand. With such information, the need is to evaluate the trade-offs between sectors as a basis for future policy interventions and financial investments. * To do this, information from multiple sources must converge, be organized and be evaluated (preferably according to organizing ecosystem principles), and disseminated. A Baseline assessment of the current and past (to establish both the extent and processes of change) environmental conditions of a basin provides the foundation to build from. With such a baseline established, then future scenarios can be analyzed, and the evolution of key system variables can be monitored. 140 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Establishing such a process is not a trivial task: · The information required comes from multiple sources, .... multiple disciplines, which presents problems with even communication between specialists. .. New field measurements, especially holistic and cross- boundaries, are challenging. ·Handling such diverse data and executing models is not straight-forward. There are very real problems in converting data streams into useful information that go beyond a database. · Dynamic simulation models recognize "non-stationarity" and nominally represent processes. But are plagued by generations of graduate students, legacy code, and overall complexity. · Handling such diverse data and executing models is not straight-forward. There are very real problems in converting data streams into useful information that go beyond a database. · Perhaps most challenging is how to not only create such information, but how to get it into the hands of users of different levels, from the specialist to the local and regional decision makers to the local farmer "Virtual River Basin (VRB)" A metaphor and a practical engine, for organizing and processing the information and decision needs for the Basin (towards IWRM). The intent is, essentially, to create an "information laboratory and forum, without walls, capable of flying in time and space, reaching the citizens and their decision makers..." 141 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) "DYNAMIC INFORMATION FRAMEWORK (DIF)" ....noting especially issues of data gaps........ (Transboundary) Political Boundaries Basin Cell Quickflow from Channel Impervious Surfaces Segment Flow Ground surface Crunoff Qrunoff Ci,in Qinflow Vertical Unsaturated Overland Flow Flow Saturated Subsurface Flow i Soil column nt Landuse/Landcover Csoilwater Qsubflow Se gme and Segment Flow Richey, Gillison, ChannelFernandes, 2007 Ci Qoutflow Physical "Template" The DIF is, essentially, a numeric and quantitative "Commons," that harnesses cultural and scientific knowledge, with the goal of "harmonizing" watershed/coastal function for multiple users · Process of creating the model provides an integration of data from multiple sources (of interest to all stakeholders) · Provides quantitative baselines and an instrument for analysis of complex interdependent problems · Provides a means for interpolation of sparse data. · Provides the basis for cross- scale/ upscaling analyses. · Provides a foundation for "scenarios" 142 Dynamic Information Framework SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) · Base data layers · Directed data layers, focused on synthetic objectives · Geospatially-explicit, process-based, cross-sector simulation models (requiring data from the directed data layers). A modular structure allows ready swapping of models (while focusing on getting work done). · Facilitated input/output (including visualizations) · Decision support system and scenario testing capabilities River Basin/Coastal Dynamic Information Framework Observations/Measurements, Modeling POLICY (10) CLIMATE FORCING (2) Informing the Precip, Temp, Rn Local Met Records WATER MOVEMENT (3) Decision Makers Regional Downscaling Regional Climate Models Soil Moist, ET, Runoff Stage/Discharge Water table ECONOMICS (9) DRAINAGE BASIN (1) (local hydromet) Value of assets Water use rules "Scaled" structure DEM/Topography WB/WT (hydro) Model ·Channel flow LANDSCAPE River Networks/riparian Soils (depth, texture, fertility) ·Dams PRODUCTION (5) ·Irrigation Landuse/Landcover Agriculture, (Industrial) ·Veg (Natl, Agricult) class Crop yields ·Veg functional attributes Industrial resource CHEMICAL LOADING (6) ·Biodiversity Agricult Models ·Infrastructure Dissolved, Sediment Direct river loadings Landuse Change Models Hydrochem model LAKE/ESTUARY FISHERIES (8) WATER QUALITY/NEP (7) WATER BALANCE (4) Yield, Structure Chem, PPr (plankton, Water Level Catch statistics Bathymetry macrophytes) Biodiversity Stage Water chemistry Genetics Balance Model Plant extent, production Recruit Model (Circulation) Nutrient/PPr Model 143 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) 144 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture Project in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain WB/GEF (MACC) -- LAKE VICTORIA BASIN DYNAMIC INFORMATION FRAMEWORK (LVDIF): Towards Baselines and Integration for LVEMP II Lake Victoria Environment Management Program II Strengthen regional and national institutions for governance of the transboundary resources in the Lake Victoria Basin; and facilitate public and private environmentally friendly investments in the LVB 145 SESSION 2 | Jeffrey E. Richey (continued) Developing a Functional Landscape-Scale Land Cover, Biodiversity, Hydrology Modeling Framework (DrukDIF) for the SLMP areas of Bhutan How Land-Ocean Interactions could be considered in policy and project design ... Challenge: bringing best scientific knowledge, do it quickly, (and note - pushes the "science," as well) · Advances in "Earth System Science" - Geospatial information can interpolate - Dynamic, process models; deal with non-stationary world - Way of thinking · "Dynamic Information Frameworks" - Doable - Quantitative - "Visual" ­ connect with people... - Psychology of engagement · Institutional Issues - training, capacity building - buy-in, moving away from "old" models 146 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade Nonstationarity of Sediment Transport and Deposition in Rivers Robert H. Meade Nonstationarity of fluvial sedimentation: intrinsic measurement purpose 147 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) STATIONARITY in SUSPENDED-SEDIMENT DISCHARGE Juniata River at Newport PA , 1952-1984 Sediment-Rating Curve 148 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) SEDIMENT RATING CURVES Nonstationarity of fluvial sedimentation: intrinsic measurement purpose 149 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) 150 Wolman 1967 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) 151 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) 152 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) Mississippi River at Tarbert Landing LA 500 Millions of tons per year 400 Sediment 300 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Cubic km per year 600 Water 400 200 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Water year 300 200 100 0 1940 1950 1960 300 Fort Randall Dam 200 Gavins Point Dam 100 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Yankton 400 Omaha 300 Millions of tons per year 200 100 Hermann 0 600 500 0 500 400 kilometers 300 Tarbert 200 Landing 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 Gulf of Mexico Water year 153 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) "In a nonstationary world, continuity of observations is critical." Milly et al., 2008, Science Nonstationarity of fluvial sedimentation: intrinsic measurement purpose 154 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) Depth- Isokinetic Depth-integrating Sampler isokinetic nozzle Colorado River Sampler messenger 1-pint bottle 155 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) Depth- Isokinetic Depth-integrating Sampler isokinetic nozzle Collapsible-bag sampler array As used in: Amazon Orinoco Mississippi 156 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) 157 Surrogates for sediment sampling: SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) No free lunch No magic bullets CALIBRATE Nonstationarity of fluvial sedimentation: intrinsic measurement purpose 158 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) Navigation Tennessee River Hydropower 159 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) 160 SESSION 2 | Robert H. Meade (continued) 161 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey GLOBAL WATER PARTNERSHIP GW- GW-MATE 8-Years of Strategic Advice on Groundwater Management & Links with Surface Water Resources STEPHEN FOSTER & CATHERINE TOVEY (Director) (Coordinator) 162 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) SUMMARY OF GW-MATE EXPENDITURE (September 2000 ­ June 2008) . (all in US$ k) SET-UP YEAR YEAR YEAR YEAR YEAR YEAR YEAR RUNNING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOTALS SUB-DIVISION Sep-Dec 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 US $ k % World Bank Projects 89 183 256 347 271 274 231 389 2187 56 Generic Products 59 122 72 51 56 28 9 20 440 11 Capacity Building 17 44 135 155** 78 104 56 112 866 22 (incl GWP-AP) Program Coordination 40 71 75 64 55 51 18 58 438 11 OVERALL TOTAL 205 420 538 617 460 457 314 579 3931 100 BNWPP Total 134 268 356 454 272 317 67 437 2593 66 DfID Total 71 152 182 163 188 107 139 142 1197 30 Other Funding 33 108 0 141 4 SAR 25%, LACR 18%, SSAFR 9%, MENAR + ECAR 6% & EAPR 5% GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT essential roles for government 163 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) GOVERNMENT AGENCY ACTING AS GROUNDWATER GUARDIAN idealised structure and essential functions PARTICIPATORY GROUNDWATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT general scheme of institutional interaction 164 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) HARMONISING GROUNDWATER BODIES WITHIN THE RIVER-BASIN CONCEPT . IMPORTANT MAJOR DEEP HYDROGEOLOGICAL EXTENSIVE AQUIFER IN AQUIFERS OF PATCHY MINOR SETTING SHALLOW LIMITED AQUIFERS RELATIVELY AQUIFER EXTENSION ARID REGION AMPs required limited GW SW-GW relations groundwater flow for each specific storage and SW critical to avoid predominates SPECIFIC aquifer but interaction thus waterlogging and thus only AMPs CHARACTERISTICS integrated into consideration stabilisation thus required main RBMP in RBMP not integrated RBMP essential essential Weathered Lerma Basin, Basement of Gangetic Plain, Nubian EXAMPLE (S) Mexico Sub-Saharan India Sandstone, Africa & Indian North Africa Peninsula URBAN GROUNDWATER USE promoting an integrated sustainable vision 165 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) GROUNDWATER AND THE CITY an intimate but often unrecognised relationship ...... in majority of geological settings water- but varies with water-supply and sanitation arrangements GROUNDWATER AND THE CITY ,,urbanisation impacts on groundwater and ,,groundwater impacts the urban infrastructure The Integrating Element without planning ­ "one persons solution becomes the another persons problem" 166 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) URBAN GROUNDWATER-RELATED CONFLICTS from unplanned/unregulated resource abstraction and uncontrolled effluent discharge · private versus utility ,,water-supply tensions · unsustainability and impacts of intensive use · low-cost sanitation versus groundwater quality · wastewater reuse versus groundwater quality · water-table rebound and urban drainage WASTEWATER FROM MAINS SEWERAGE water resource context in developing nations · downstream riverbed infiltration and/or uncontrolled use for agricultural irrigation generally results in major incidental groundwater recharge · urban wastewater thus represents both: - a major recharge benefit for groundwater resources - significant pollution hazard for some groundwater 167 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) GROUNDWATER & THE CITY · an evolving (often unsustainable) relationship · groundwater table rebound ­ the ,,sting in the tail serious hazards to building foundations, subsurface infrastructure, sewerage/sanitation operation and public health 168 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT controlling agricultural irrigation demand BENEFITS OF GROUNDWATER USE FOR IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE ,,The Silent Revolution · massive growth of waterwells for agricultural irrigation worldwide (especially in South-East Asia) · mainly private investment but frequently stimulated by government waterwell grants, electrical energy subsidies, crop guarantee prices,etc · initially investment returns are very good both for : ­ staple crops (groundwater development fuelling ,,green revolution) ­ cash crops with improvements in rural livelihoods and high water productivity but questions of sustainability are occurring quite widely (with water-table depletion and sometimes salinisation) 169 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) GROUNDWATER FOR AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION understanding the ,,use drivers · clear that ,,irrigation demand is strongly driven by economic factors for irrigation infrastructure, pumping energy and crop prices/risks ­ which reduce effectiveness of auto-regulation of abstraction through increasing costs in situations of falling water-table · solution of agricultural sector is invariably so-called ,,irrigation water-use efficiency improvements ­ but unless nature of real water-losses versus recirculation returns well understood and respected this is not effective and can be positively misleading IRRIGATION TECHNIQUES influence on groundwater returns and scope for real water savings 170 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) REAL GROUNDWATER RESOURCE SAVINGS from improved irrigation techniques rh5 Carrizal Valley 171 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) MENDOZA CARRIZAL AQUIFER characteristics of groundwater flow regime 172 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) GROUNDWATER USE ON ALLUVIAL PLAINS moving from coping strategy to conjunctive use HYDROGEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF GANGETIC PLAIN interfluve canals as recharge mounds and rivers as discharge sumps 173 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) 174 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) 175 SESSION 3 | Stephen Foster and Catherine Tovey (continued) CHALLENGE OF CONJUNCTIVE USE OF GROUNDWATER & SURFACE WATER RESOURCES ,, Scientific Logic until now frustrated by Social Realities · integrated modelling for tropical climates often demonstrates that cropping intensity for entire command area could be increased to 200-250% with ,,planned conjunctive use and better crop choices could further enhance ,,irrigation water productivity · but how to overcome social and economic obstacles to rationalising conjunctive use (political power of head-canal land owners, comparative water cost to users and initial capital investment requirements) ? Generic Products & Capacity Building www.worldbank.org/gwmate 176 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett The latest in Watershed modeling: Applications to Bank Projects NOAA National Weather Service Curt Barrett November 25 2008 Overview NOAA's Global Role End to End Warning Systems NWSRFS A Global Flash Flood Warning System A Prototype Radar based Flash Flood & Debris Flow Forecasting System The HYDROMET Center CHPS- The future HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 2 Development Center 177 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett (continued) Building an End-to-End Warning System HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 3 Development Center NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Hydrologic Forecasting Data Inputs and Applications Flash Flood Watch/Warnings Precip - Gage River/Flood Precip - Radar Forecast/Warnings Hydropower Precip - Satellite Hydrologic Streamflow Forecasting Water Supply (NWSRFS) Weather Forecasts Irrigation Climate Predictions Recreation Snowpack Navigation HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 4 Development Center 178 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett (continued) Global Hydromet projects 13 countries are operating NWSRFS Past Current §China 1994-1995 § Mexico 1996-20012 §Panama 1996-1998 § Czech Republic 1998-Present §Nile River Basin 1992-2000 § Romania 2004-2009 §Central A. (MITCH) 1999-2001 § Mekong/Hindu Kush 2003-2009 §Asia-Aral Sea 1999-2002 §Central America (CAMI) 2000-2004 § India 2004-2008 §South Africa 1997-2003 § Russia 2005-2010 §Poland 2002-2004 § Colombia 2008-11 § Central America 2008- § Indian Ocean IOTWS 2004-2007 HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 5 Development Center A Global Flash Flood Warning System HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 6 Development Center 179 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett (continued) Aburrá Valley Natural Hazard Early Warning System National Weather Service of the United States National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 7 Development Center AVNHEWS Hydro-Meteorological Data Forecasting Sub-System Hydro-met Other Sub- SIATA Observation Tower Systems Radar Network Emergency Mgmt Hydro-Met CLOPADs Information Gauge 1-2-3 Network Processor RED Archives RIESGOS Satellite Analysis Forecasting Models Environmental Quality WRF NWS River Flash Debris Analysis RED AIRE Forecasting Flood Flow System Guidance Models Geotechnical Geotechnical GEO RED Seismic Network Others? Hazard Warnings Landcover & Terrain Water Supply Research & Development HYDROMET Technology Transfer & Reservoir Flood Hydropower 8 Center Production Management Development 180 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett (continued) Radar Sub-system Design NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division § Assess attenuation § Assess vertical structure § Assess radar siting and scan strategies § Assess possible radar options for X-, C- and S-band HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 9 Development Center AVNHEWS Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Sub-System Hydro-met Other Sub- Data SIATA Observation Tower Systems Emergency Mgmt CLOPADs Radar Hydro-Met Network Information 1-2-3 Processor RED Archives RIESGOS Gauge Network Environmental Forecasting Models Quality Debris Flash NWS River Flow Flood Forecasting RED AIRE Satellite Models Guidance System Geotechnical GEO RED Hydro-power Others? Historical Hazard Warnings Production Data 181 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett (continued) HYDROMET Technology Transfer & Development Center Opportunity § What is the HYDROMET Center? § Collaborative program between the IAO, OHD and interested countries & Organizations... § Facilitates the advancement of hydrometeorological forecasting science and methods through international partnerships § An opportunity for countries to configure hydrologic solutions to their hydrologic problems AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE OPEN SYSTEM § International projects management facility as well as a focus for HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 12 Development Center § International training and capacity building 182 SESSION 3 | Curt Barrett (continued) Organizational Structure §HYDROMET Center Staff § 1 Program Manager § 4-5 Scientists/Engineers §Management International Office of Activities Hydrologic § Director, IAO (Lead) Office Development § Director, OHD Projects Management Science Strategy §External Advisors Admin/Finance Partner Relations Partnership for Science / Software Project Partners Advisory Board § USGS Guidance § USACE & Funding HYDROMET Technology Transfer § USAID & Development Center Program Manager (1 x FTE) § World Bank + Scientists & Engineers (4-5 Contractors) § WMO HYDROMET Technology Transfer & 13 Development Center Conclusions o End to End Warning systems save lives o Remote Sensing tools provide Data & information worldwide to reduce water related disasters o Availability of GIS data opens up hydrologic model parameterization anywhere oTechnology, Science & Data solutions at reasonable costs are available oThe WEAK LINK is people connectivity 183 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen Watershed management through modeling ­ The European experience Prof. Torkil Jønch Clausen Managing Director, DHI Water Policy Topics Introduction Driving forces for modeling in Europe Technology ­ from bicycle to limo The common language of modeling Data development trends ­ from data books to space age Case study: WFD in Greece Concluding remarks 184 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Driving forces Main driving forces for modeling in Europe Legislation: · EU Water Framework Directive · EU Floods Directive · Other water related directives Authorities · Central ­ local - basin A consolidating water supply, waste water, energy industry · Growing, integrating (ex. Copenhagen Energy) -- and now focus on climate change adaptation 185 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) EU Water Framework Directive ­ WFD Key objectives of the WFD are: · to protect and enhance the status of aquatic ecosystems · to promote sustainable water use · to ensure good quality surface water and groundwater · To reduce discharges, emissions and losses of priority substances · to contribute to mitigating the effects of floods and droughts WFD is the "European IWRM" with focus on ecology (one of the "three E's" of IWRM) Driving Forces Pressure, State & Impact assessment SCREENING LEVEL Monitoring & survey River basin Pollution loads Integration of modern Overview of WR & Estimation of point & non-point techniques in monitoring & environmental issues and sources, & overall conditions dissemination of environmental problem areas data Time Series Manager MIKE BASIN MIKE BASIN WQ DETAILED LEVEL Soil Groundwater Surface water Assessment of impact of land Analysis of the impact of water Assessment of the WQ & use & fertilizer plans on loss of and land use on groundwater ecological state, analysis of nutrients & pesticides quantity & quality impacts of human activities MIKE SHE MIKE SHE MIKE 11 / MIKE 21 & ECOLAB Responses River Basin Management Plans 186 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) EU Floods Directive The Floods Directive (FD): ".. to reduce and manage the risks that floods pose to human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity". The main steps 1. preliminary flood risk assessment 2. flood hazard and flood risk mapping 3. flood risk management plans - coordinated and synchronised with the WFD implementation cycle The trend: modeling requirements Complementarity · Need to address the complementary requirements of the Water Framework Directive and the Floods Directive Integration · Demand to apply integrated hydrological/hydraulic basin scale modelling tools with these capabilities 187 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Technology 247 0 The Water Cycle A vision from the past: "A complete physically-based synthesis of the hydrologic cycle is a concept that tantalizes most hydrologists" Freeze and Harlan:"Blueprint for a physically-based, digitally-simulated hydrologic response model, (Journal of Hydrology, 1969) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 188 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Hydroinformatics ­ where does it contribute? · Natural Science/ Design and Impact analyses Engineering · Cost - benefits Quantitative Results Decision Support · Politics and Systems regulation The "I" in Integrated Water Resources Management Land Water "Green water" "Blue water" Surface water Groundwater Quantity Quality Upstream Downstream Freshwater Coastal water 189 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Modeling scales in water resources Sub- Catchment Municipality Province Catchment State River Basin Development trend: Apply a modelling system which can satisfy all in one go. The system can consist of inter-linked models, simple and advanced, talking together Moving from individual models to integrated models Water management at the catchment scale Cross-sectoral integration Cross- Multi- Multi-stakeholder planning Physical integration One resource One management unit (catchment) One hydrological modeling system Rootzone Surface Rivers/ Groundwater lakes 190 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The bicycle ­ the car ­ the limo Runoff Diversion point Ground water Multiple water rights Reservoir Irrigation Intake Water area supply Irrigation Return flow area Industrial discharge Remote control point The Excel solution A reliable bicycle with very limited answers Provide input to medium range or advanced models 191 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The good solid car - example MIKE BASIN Simple, not limited by data availability, fast and easy to set up. Runoff Diversion point Ground water Multiple water rights Reservoir Irrigation Intake Water area supply Irrigation area Return flow Industrial discharge Remote control point The limo ­ example MIKE SHE The Freeze and Harlan dream Inspired by Freeze and Harlan, 1969 Physically based process descriptions Green and Ampt 2008 192 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) MIKE SHE application:example A remote sensing driven distributed hydrological model of the Senegal River basin (Simon Stisen, Journal of Hydrology, 2008) · Senegal River Basin in West Africa · 350.000 km2 (6 km grid) · Sparse, unreliable measurements >> Remote sensing time series · Leaf Area Index - Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) 8 km grid, Root Depth and Kc function of LAI · Potential Evapotranspiration ­ hourly day-time METEOSAT-7 for global radiation and cloud cover · Precipitation ­ hourly TAMSAT Cold Cloud Duration (CCD), 11 km grid Linking to visual illustrations ( - talking climate change with municipality) 193 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) The common language of modeling A new model body language has been developed OpenMI www.openmi.org Seamless communication between models 194 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) What is OpenMI? Data development trends ­ from databooks to space age 195 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Data development trends (I) Databases, GIS, WWW and mathematical codes are increasingly being linked Benefits: GIS and Databases Easy access to improved analyses - the data repository manager Easy access to data - the modeller Easier communication Generated data - administrators and scientists Easier access to results - stakeholders via the Internet 1600 1500 1400 Ep (mm) 1300 Mathematical models 1200 1100 1000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Altitude (m m ) Data development trends (II) · Increasing use of remote sensing · Multidiciplinary geodatabases · Integration across jurisdictions · Emerging applications: ­ Ecohydrology ­ Distributed real-time flood forecasting ­ Atmospheric feedback and climate change 196 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Case study: WFD in Greece WFD in Greece · 5 planning areas Northern Greece · Each consisting of: Western and - 4-5 Water Districts Central Greece (management Model areas) - One joint management model - 15-20 detailed groundwater models 197 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Project phases · Establish and calibrate hydrological models · Collect and include data on water extractions and water use · Establish management models · Scenario modeling and economic models ­ to come · Model transfer. Modelling system consisting of three main components Information System (Temporal ) Analyst ArcGIS Hydrological Resource balancing Modelling and (MIKE SHE ) Management Model (MIKE BASIN) 198 1 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) GIS based Information Information System System: (TS Manager) Temporal Analyst Holding relevant Map- Interacting directly Based and time series with the models information ArcGIS Hydrological Resource balancing Modelling and (MIKE SHE) Management Model (MIKE BASIN) 2 Information System (TS Manager) ArcGIS Hydrological Resource balancing Modelling and A flexible and powerful (MIKE SHE) Management Model (MIKE BASIN) hydrological modelling system 199 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Philosophy: Same flexible hydrological modeling code both for .... regional basin models covering the whole area the many detailed groundwater models. Topography and Rivers Benefits: Benefits: Vegetation Same GIS-based input data in all models Physically based input parameters Soils => parameter assessment for ungauged catchments. Results from the regional models => boundaries for detailed models. 200 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Management model Final resolution Water use on municipality basis: Domestic, Agricultural, Industrial and tourism Annual groundwater depletion (mm) 201 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Balance between local water resources and annual extraction Water Consumption Distributed on Sectors 202 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Next Steps: Make summary results Include water quality Include costs and benefits Build scenario management tools Concluding remarks Concluding remarks: · Policies, strategies and legislation towards integrated approaches call for integrated modeling · Advances in modeling architecture and common language facilitate this development ­ enabling different models of different complexities to "talk to each other" · Modern modeling architecture accommodate both simple and complex components ­ operating under data poor an data rich conditions · Advanced European modeling systems are used world ­ wide, also in the least developed countries 203 SESSION 3 | Torkil Jønch-Clausen (continued) Concluding remarks Implications for the World Bank: · EU modeling approaches are responding to legislative and other demands for integration ­ the Bank client countries are moving in the same direction · Modern modeling architecture is designed to cope with a range of available technologies ­ with room for bicycles, cars and limos. Bank client countries are already adopting these approaches · Data poverty is no argument for technology poverty - the better the technology, the more information from available data. Bank clients will benefit from best available modeling technologies from the start O T Thank you tjc@dhigroup.com 204 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo The Community Hydrologic Prediction System CHPS Pedro Restrepo Senior Scientist Office of Hydrologic Development National Weather Service HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS TO INFORM BANK POLICIES AND PROJECTS: BRIDGING THE GAP The World Bank, November 2008 Water Predictions for Decisions Life 1 National Weather Service National Weather Service River Forecast System Operates in 3 integrated modes. · Calibration <== parameter estimation · Operational <== short term deterministic forecasts · Ensemble <== longer term forecasts MCP OFS ESP Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 205 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) NWSRFS Ensemble Streamflow Calibration System (CS) Prediction System (ESP) Historical Data Model window Analysis Calibration Hydrologic Historical Data And parameters, Hydraulic areal time information series Models time Operational Forecast System (OFS) Hydromet Hydrologic/Hydraulic Statistical Models Real-Time Analysis Analysis Observed short term and observed forecasts Probabilistic Forecast and Predictions Data predicted current states values `fs5 files' Interactive Interactive Forecast Adjustments Program (IFP) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service NWSRFS - OFS Stage User Interface HCL III IFP except does not maintain C.O. MAPX Preprocessor Forecast Data Observed Functions Time Function Entry and Series Projected MAP, MAT, RRS, etc Data FCEXEC Data PPDB PDB Forecast Preprocessor Initialization Preprocessor Initialization and Maintenance Parametric and Maintenance Data Forecast FCINIT Parametric PPINIT PPPDB & Carryover Data Reorder and Compress FCDB Water Predictions for REORDER Life Decisions National Weather Service 206 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Why CHPS? NWSRFS is a great architecture that was developed for use on mainframe computers · lacks modern modularity · difficult to add new models and techniques · inhibits collaboration and research to operations · very fast CHPS will allow: · greater ease in implementing new models · greater collaboration with agency partners, universities, international community · probably not as fast Water Predictions for Decisions Life 5 National Weather Service Open System... · No implications when introducing new model concepts · Maintain current models/investments · Easily introduce new advances Model 1 HD Model Flood Current Model 2 Organization Forecasting System Model 3 University Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 207 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Open interface to models DELFT-FEWS No model intelligence in Generic Module DELFT-FEWS Adapter Model intelligence vested in model adapter XML Model Adapter Native Native format Model format Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service FEWS Hardware Infrastructure Client Client Client Operator Client Operator Client Duty System Operator Client Standby System Forecasting Shell Master Controller Master Controller Forecasting Shell Server Server Server Server Master Controller Master Controller Forecasting Shell JBoss Jboss Forecasting Shell Tomcat Tomcat Forecasting Shell Forecasting Shell Etc Etc Database Server Database Server Central Central Database Database (PostgreSQL) (PostgreSQL) Water Predictions for Forecasting Archive Life Decisions (PostgreSQL) National Weather Service 208 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Main Map Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Interactive Forecasting Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 209 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Time Series Modifier Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service State Modifier Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 210 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Time Series Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Time Series Display (Probabilistic) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 211 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Time Series Display (ESP) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Time Series Editor Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 212 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Spatial Display (NWP) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Spatial Display (Multi Sensor) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 213 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Spatial Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Spatial Display (Catchments) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 214 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Longitudinal Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Web Server & Web Reports Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 215 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Forecast Manager Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service System Monitor (Log Browser) Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 216 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Skill Scores Display Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service Potential CHPS in Joint IWRSS (NOAA+USACE) USACE RFC 1 CHPS District 1 · Model interoperability policy Client CWMS ­ Collaborative development of RFC 1 DB Server CHPS Synchronization adapters (CHPS) and plug- Server ins (CWMS) for new models RFC 1 CHPS District 2 Client CWMS Server National DB CHPS DB Synchronization Server Synchronization District 3 · RFC COOP RFC 2 CWMS · Emergency Support CHPS Server · Geo-Intelligence Support Client ­ Enterprise GIS RFC 2 DB CHPS Synchronization District 4 · Data Preprocessing (e.g. MAT) Server RFC 2 CWMS · Real time Intercomparison CHPS Server · Real time Verification Client · R2O Testbed ("Experimental RFC") · District COOP · Flash Flood Guidance · National Interoperability · Seamless access to USACE/NWS data Water Predictions Enhanced Geo-Intelligence Support · for · National distribution of USACE WR information (now mandated) Life Decisions National Weather Service 217 SESSION 3 | Pedro Restrepo (continued) Thank You Water Predictions for Life Decisions National Weather Service 218 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe Ecohydrology, Climate and Ecosystem Response Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe Princeton University A presentation to the Sustainable Development Vice- Presidency of the World Bank November 25,2008 Ecohydrology and Sustainability · The health of an economy can not be separated from that of its natural support systems. · A strategy for eradicating property will not succeed if an economy's environmental support systems are collapsing. · Ecohydrological factors are a fundamental piece for sustainable development at regional and global scales. 219 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) ECOHYDROLOGY · Studies the hydrologic dynamics responsible for ecological patterns and processes. · At the frontier of environmental sciences where it takes place the natural convergence of biology and the physical sciences. · This convergence will transform our understanding of the processes that control the stability and sustainability of natural environmental systems. · Such knowledge is critical for a safe and sustainable future Sustainable Development and Climate Change · Ecohydrologic impacts of climate change are: · Related mainly to precipitation · Related mainly to streamflow · The impact of temperature changes and the associated fluctuations in space and time of precipitation and streamflow are responsible for a large number of impacts of different types affecting the sustainability of natural ecosystems. 220 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Precipitation Dynamics and Ecosystem Response · "Although it's natural to think first of temperature when we think of global warming,the impact of climate change in precipitation may be even more important in the long run for many places and many people" (Henson,2006) Simple Models of Temporal Rainfall Patterns RAINFALL h ·Frequency of rainfall events: (1/day) ·Mean depth per event: (mm) time INTERCEPTION: Censored Poisson process new rate, '= e-/ RUNOFF: Saturation-from-below mechanism state-dependent infiltration h (cm) e-(1-s)/ 2 b(y) 1.5 * 1 1/ e-y/ 0.5 t g t 0 1-s y 221 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Rainfall:key hydrologic driver · The stochastic character of rainfall -random arrivals -random amounts -Key driver for soil moisture,nutrient assimilation,vegetation water stress,photosynthesis,and assimilation. Comparison with data ambient altered - dramatic shift in the rainfall frequency changes the grassland water balance from an intermediate to a dry one - frequency rainfall has a great impact on net assimilation (Porporato,Daly,and Rodriguez-Iturbe. American Naturalist,2004) 222 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Experimental verification Growing season (site in Illinois), precipitation and soil moisture data Salvucci G. (2001) Water Resour. Res. 37(5), 1357-1365. Vegetation Water Stress and Soil Moisture Dynamics s(t) Frequency of crossing Duration of the growing season, Tseas ( ) p( ) Number of crossing Duration of an excursion below n Tseas ( ) p( ) Tseas Mean time of crossing P( ) P( ) T t ( ) p( ) Ridolfi et al. (2000) Water Resour. Res. 36, 2297. Porporato et al. (2001) Adv. Water Res. 24, 725. Laio et al. (2001) Phys. Rev. E. 63, 36105. 223 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Application to the Kalahari precipitation gradient Porporato et al., J. Geophys. Res., 108(D3), 4127 Long-term water balance Dynamic water stress grasses trees 224 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Importance of Fluctuations · Accounting only for changes in mean responses to climatic variability is far from sufficient for a realistic evaluation of the impact of climate change in ecosystems. · Soil moisture dynamics,photosynthesis, and plant assimilation are greatly dependent on the temporal dynamics of precipitation. 225 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Rainfall Characteristics Land Cover Characteristics 226 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) 227 Storm Depths Frequency of Rainfall Events SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Jacobson Farm;68 years of rainfall data Early Season Summer Rains Long Rains 0.8 0.4 0.8 Lambda (day -1) Lambda (day -1) Lambda (day -1) 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0 0 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year on Record Year on Record Year on Record Short Rains Early Season Summer Rains 0.8 20 20 Lambda (day -1) 0.6 15 15 Alpha (mm) Alpha (mm) 0.4 10 10 0.2 5 5 0 0 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year on Record Year on Record Year on Record Long Rains Short Rains 20 30 15 Alpha (mm) Alpha (mm) 20 10 10 5 0 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year on Record Year on Record Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin 228 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Vegetation of Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin Vegetation Water Stress 229 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Vegetation Water Stress Optimal Soil-Climate-Vegetation Conditions 230 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Climate-Vegetation Interactions Defining the large-scale, dynamic interactions between vegetation and climate is a current research priority. "An important focus of research on terrestrial feedbacks should be on improving the parameterization of dynamic vegetation in climate models" ­ NRC, 2003 Significance of temporal scales: Vegetation responds to variability in climate over a range from diurnal to multi- decadal timescales. Significance of spatial scales: Large-scale vegetation patterns emerge from local-scale interactions. 231 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Savanna Vegetation Geographically significant: Covers ~40% of the earth's terrestrial surface. Commonly water-limited and highly coupled to rainfall variability. This makes savanna ecosystems well-suited for studying how vegetation is related to climate via long- term monitoring (i.e., satellite data, aerial photos). Study Site Kalahari Transect (KT) 1600 mm/yr 250 mm/yr North-south aridity gradient in southern Africa on a homogeneous sand formation Sites along transect characterized in 2000 (eddy covariance flux measurements) 232 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) The Kalahari Transect Large rainfall gradient Persistent Tree/Grass mosaic Consistent soil texture 233 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Stem maps provide characterization of patchy vegetation structure Latitude south iIs not v EQUIVALENT TO 234 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) POWER LAWS OF CLUSTER SIZES IN THE KALAHARY REGION Scanlon,Caylor,Levin, Rinaldo,and Rodriguez- Iturbe Nature,Sept.13,2007 Power Laws in Ecosystems · Fingerprints of self-organization:the result of internal dynamics driven by local interactions. · Local facilitation among plants set against the background of overall control by water availability. · Water is the limiting factor but short-range interactions among plants involve positive effects that are a necessary condition for power laws to exist (e.g.,bare patches revert to fertile soil that later can be colonized by seedlings). · Arid ecosystems might suddenly shift towards desert condtions as external conditions deteriorate (e.g.,decreasing rainfall ,grazing). 235 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Kalahari Transect (KT): Sites 879 mm Mongu, Zambia -Kataba forest -permanent 30-m tower 460 mm Maun, Botswana -Mopane woodland -portable tower 407 mm Okwa River Crossing (ORC), Botswana -shrub savanna -portable tower 365 mm Tshane, Botswana -open savanna -portable tower Current issue, GCB Trees vs. Grasses Short term fluxes are effected by savanna composition: water use factors Trees Grasses photosynthetic C3 C4 pathway (lower WUE) (higher WUE) water uptake extensive intensive strategy exploiters exploiters growth definite indefinite 236 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Scaling up Can the effects of the differential water use by trees vs. grasses be observed at the regional scale? Satellite Data - KT Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) -measure of "greenness" NOAA-AVHRR data set Mean wet season NDVI Temporal s.d. (1983-1998) in wet season NDVI (1983-1998) 237 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Rainfall data - KT U. East Anglia precipitation data set Mean wet season rainfall Temporal s.d. (1983-1998) in wet season rainfall (1983-1998) Tree/Grass response to rainfall What causes the peak in temporal variability of NDVI within central Botswana? multi-decadal rainfall annual Grasses frequency: low high low high rainfall Trees frequency: low high low high 238 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Key Questions What are the controls on the variable wet season grass fractional cover? What are the effects of the dynamic grass cover on the overall ecosystem water use? Are vegetation assemblages with a variable growth component more favorably suited to persist in a fluctuating (rainfall) environment? *We emphasize that this is a test of the notion that savanna systems tend to self-organize w.r.t. optimizing water use, despite the fact that selection processes operate at much lower levels Mean rainfall deviations from the 500mm annual rainfall for Lake Bogoria, 1977-1998 239 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Implications Dynamic grass cover enhances the degree to which the savanna vegetation is optimized w.r.t water use and helps to close the water cycle at the land surface. savanna grassland tree thinning enhanced grazing woodland Leakage loss from base of root zone (Vegetation is self-organized to optimize use of fluctuating rainfall) (Water bypasses (Vegetation cover not shallow root system) adaptable to variable wet season rainfall) Possible mobilization of nitrate stored at depth (Walvoord et al., Nature, 2003)? Conclusions Grass cover is dynamic, and is observed to resonate with wet season rainfall over large spatial scales Tree fractional cover along the KT is highly correlated with mean rainfall, while grass cover is controlled primarily by tree cover and the transient dynamics of shallow soil moisture. The dynamic nature of grass cover allows the savanna vegetation assemblage to optimize water use in the water-limited portion of the KT. The transition from the nutrient- to water-limited portion of the KT is abrupt, and is related to shift from the open to closed hydrological cycle at the land surface. 240 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Freshwater Fish in the Mississippi-Missouri Fish species data and topological structure of river networks are combined and analyzed to study various biodiversity patterns. 80 3 0.8 10 60 diversity b diversity Species similarity index 0.6 2 histogram 10 range range 40 0.4 1 10 20 0.2 0 0 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 0 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 x rank Simultaneous Fits of Patterns diversity diversity profile histogram Species b diversity range 241 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Data Model Key Messages (from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) · The most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem service changes are habitat change (such as land use changes,physical modification of rivers or water withdrawal from rivers),climate change,invasive alien species,overexploitation,and pollution. · Improved capability to predict the consequences of changes in drivers of biodiversity,ecosystem functioning,and ecosystem services,together with improved measures of biodiversity,would aid decision making at all levels. 242 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Impact on Soil Erosion · An increase in the intensity of rainfall events also leads to ecohydrological consequences in fundamental aspects of soil erosion. · e.g.,"Agriculture in Lesotho faces a catastrophic future,crop production is declining and could cease altogether over large tracts of the country if steps are not taken to reverse soil erosion..." (FAO,2002)......."a large share of the world's 852 million hungry people live on land with soils thin by erosion" (Brown,2006) 243 SESSION 3 | Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe (continued) Soil Erosion,Water,and Vegetation · Impacts in food · Work · Health · ........SUSTAINABILITY 244 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek Hydrology for Water Resource Systems Development and Management under the Risk of Climate Change Professor Kenneth Strzepek Univ. of Colorado, MIT, Univ. of Pretoria with contributions from V. Alavian & H. Qaddumi: World Bank A. Schlosser: MIT , E. Stakhiv: USACE, G. Yohe: Wesleyan U., P. Kirshen: Tufts U. Climate Science · Risk and Uncertainty · Hydrology and Uncertainty · Water Mgt Decision-making under Risk · Climate Change and Hydrology · Water Mgt Decision-making under CC 245 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Risk & Uncertainty · Knight (1921) proposed that "risk" refers to situations where the decision-makers can assign mathematical probabilities to the randomness which they are faced with while "uncertainty" refers to situations when this randomness "cannot" be expressed in terms of specific mathematical probabilities. 246 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Risk & Uncertainty · "By `uncertain' knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty...The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence...About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know." (Keynes, 1937) Risk & Uncertainty · Uncertainty is a "general concept that reflects the lack of sureness about something, ranging from just a sort of complete sureness to an almost complete lack of conviction about an outcome" while · Risk is "a combination of the chance of a particular event (probability), with the impact that the event would cause (Consequence) if it occurred. · Probability is the chance of occurrence of one event compared to the population of all possible events. 247 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) PROBABILITY from Knight · a priori probability "is on the same logical plane as the propositions of mathematics"; the canonical example is the odds of rolling any number on a die. · Statistical probability depends upon the "empirical evaluation of the frequency of association between predicates" and on "the empirical classification of instances".; · Estimates. When "there is no valid basis of any kind for classifying instances", only "estimates" can be made.1 PROBABILITY · Janeway (2006) further refines these classifications of probability "in contemporary Bayesian parlance" · a priori probability the probability distribution of the prior and all its moments are known definitionally; · Statistical probability the probability distribution of the prior and all its moments are specified by statistical analysis of well- defined empirical data; · Estimates. such data as exists do not lend themselves to statistical analysis. 248 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Probability Randomness & Uncertainty · a priori probability -Random but Certain · Statistical probability -Random but Uncertain · Estimates -Uncertain · Hydrologic Data falls into Statistical Probability with an assumption of Stationarity · Stationarity--the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability--is a foundational concept that permeates training and practice in water-resource engineering. WATER MGT In Practice how do we address the Statistical Probability of Hydrologic Data In general for have address the randomness but not the uncertainty. · Engineering Design: Specified Risk Threshold from a pdf ­ Flood Control · Expected Value of Risk X Outcomes · Decision Analytic ­ Utility approach to address Risk Aversion 249 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Economic Models of Risk Behavior Engineering Design : Expected Value Approach RISK BASED APPROACH 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2.00 7.00 12.00 Millions Orig Yr1 Yr2 A Decision Analytic Approach: Utility with Risk Aversion 250 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) US Corps of Engineers: Moved from Eng to EV with Randomness Non-Flood Water Investments · Seldom is randomness taken into account for IRR, BC ratio.. · Even less is Uncertainty Considered · Why is uncertainty not addressed ? 251 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis Pappenberger and Beven (2007) 1. uncertainty analysis is not necessary given physically realistic models; 2. uncertainty analysis cannot be used in hydrological and hydraulic hypothesis testing; 3. uncertainty (probability) distributions cannot be understood by policy makers and the public; 4. uncertainty analysis cannot be incorporated into the decision-making process; 5. uncertainty analysis is too subjective; 6. uncertainty analysis is too difficult to perform; 7. uncertainty does not really matter in making the final decision. Uncertainty in Water Investments · Some Examples 252 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) US ARMY Corps Of Engineers Stochastic vs. Deterministic ­ Base Case Variable climate mean lower in every year Deterministic model overestimates gdp Yearly Mean and Variable Climate GDP Base Simulation 4.10 GDP (log million US$) 4.05 4.00 3.95 3.90 3.85 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Simulation Year Variable Climate Sets Means Variable Climate mean 253 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Risk Assessment ­ Irri & Rds Combo Probability of reaching the deterministic spike is 0.5% PDF of log GDP for Irri/Roads Simulation 25 20 15 f(x) 10 5 0 4 4.05 4.1 4.15 4.2 4.25 x Climate Variability Means Blue Nile Investment Model Benefit-cost ratio ranges for historical and ENSO ensembles, and for three SRES scenarios, under the 5% and 50% flow policies. Scenario Historic 2x 2x B2, A1 A2, La Nina El Nino Flow Policy 5% Policy 1.48-1.72 1.49-1.76 1.43-1.66 1.80 1.64 1.39 50% Policy 1.18-1.82 1.41-1.91 1.07-1.63 1.75 1.42 1.07 i 254 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? · In view of the magnitude and ubiquity of the hydroclimatic change apparently now under way, however, we assert that stationarity is dead and should no longer serve as a central, default assumption in water-resource risk assessment and planning. Finding a suitable successor is crucial for human adaptation to changing climate.(Milly et al 2008) The Uncertainty from Non- Stationarity from CC · Does the uncertainty coming from Climate change fall into: · Statistical Probability ­ mathematically expressable · or · Estimates ­ no able to express mathematically 255 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) IPCC Uncertainty Can we estimate Uncertainty " we cannot make a direct inference that because climate models can reproduce the large-scale observed climatologies and show skill at predicting (or reproducing) climate anomalies ­ we should believe any one climate model or even a collection of climate models as the truth. This even holds for models that have been run at an exceptionally high level of spatial detail (such as the MIROC-Hires). Experience in climate evaluation, particularly in the area of hydrologic variables, indicates that there is no "best model" and we must consider every model simulation individually 256 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Current IPCC · 23 GCMS ­ Best Uniform Distribution of results · Statistical Problabitilty · SRES ­ Authors we can not put probabilities on them ­ all equally UNLIKEY · Some suggest we might be able to BUT MIT JP ­ Uncertainty Approach · Integrated Assessment Model ­IGSM · 70 Uncertain parameters · 400 Monte Carlo · Climate & Socio-Econ 257 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) MIT Uncertainty Approach IPCC v. JP pdf 258 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) CLIMATE v. Socio-Econ Communicating Risk 259 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Water management Under CC MODEL MEANS · If annual mean fields of changes show marked differences ­ in sign and magnitude - amongst climate models, the model average of these changes, not only at annual scales but also down to sub-diurnal scales, is not an adequate input for impact, response, and adaptation assessments. but we must move away from this practice, simply for the fact that a model "average" of near zero is not necessarily a result of a combination of models predicting a near-zero change, but could also be very likely a result of two very opposing changes that differ in sign (as seen in Fig. 3), 260 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) 261 Precipitation 2100: CCSM v. MIROC SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) IPCC AR4 Precipitation Boston Design Storm 2050 Current Uncertainty in 100 yr Storm much greater than range of GCM Changes Boston Absolute Yearly Daily Precipitation of Models: Comparrison of Seasons at 2050 by LPTIII 1:10 Yr 1:100 Yr 180 ----- Historic Value 160 Absolute Change in Daily Precipitation (mm) 140 120 100 80 60 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Yearly Winter Spring Summer Autumn Yearly 262 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) An Ex-Post Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of the High Aswan Dam on the Egyptian Economy: Kenneth Strzepek University of Colorado & Senior Research Fellow International Food Policy Research Institute Two ­Sector Ramsey Growth Model Volume of Flow into Aswan 1.6 Scenario 1 1.4 Volume (fraction of 1.2 Scenario 2 1 Scenario 3 current) 0.8 Scenario 4 Food Self Sufficiency 0.6 Scenario 5 0.4 1 Ratio of Domestic Food Production to Food Consumption Scenario 6 0.2 0.9 Scenario 7 0.8 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Scenario 8 0.7 0.6 Scenario 9 Year 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Per Capita Consumption 0.1 0 0.4 Ratio of Domestic Food Production to Food Consumption 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 s-1 s-2 s-3 s-4 s-5 s-6 s-7 s-8 s-9 BASE-P s-1 s-2 s-3 s-4 s-5 s-6 s-7 s-8 s-9 BASE-O 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 s-1 s-2 s-3 s-4 s-5 s-6 s-7 s-8 s-9 B A SE-P s-1 s-2 s-3 s-4 s-5 s-6 s-7 s-8 s-9 B A SE-O 263 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) Ideas · Is the cart ahead of the horse? ­ We are not doing current uncertaintu · Start with current Uncertainty · Support Uncertainty Approach in Future IPCC · CC analysis most important on long "engineering life projects" · Look at Win-Win Adaptation Ideas -2 · Be Cautious with Downscaling ­ May not be cost effective ­ Some reservation about applicability 264 SESSION 3 | Kenneth Strzepek (continued) My 3 point Sermon 1.Horses for Courses 2.Models are for Insights not Answers 3.I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong 265 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini An introduction to iSimangaliso Wetland Park Paola Agostini, AFTEN Nov 25, 2008 Washington World Heritage · In 1999 iSimangaliso was inscribed onto the World Heritage List. · iSimangaliso is listed as a WHS under the following criteria: ­ecological and biological processes; ­superlative natural phenomena, and ­biological diversity and threatened species. 266 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Upgrade of the Spine Road Upgrade of the N2 Upgrade of Border Posts iSimangaliso Authority · iSimangaliso Authority was established in 1999. · World Heritage Act and Regulations · Reports to National Department of Environment and Tourism 267 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) iSimangaliso Authority Goals · Protect, conserve and present the World Heritage values · Promote, manage and facilitate optimal tourism and related development · Promoting empowerment and local economic development DEVELOPING TO CONSERVE Major Tourism Routes Tourism Feeder Roads Land Incorporation & consolidation Park Fencing Conservation infrastructure (fences, mg, rds, accommodation, bomas etc.) Public access infrastructure (jetty, hides, picnic sites, tourism roads etc. Water (game & visitor) Electricity Land Care (52 Smme & 1500p) 268 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Park Operations · Land Care Programme Alien clearing and rehabilitation Park Operations · 2007 to 2008 R6.6 million spent · 74 land care contractors · 1230 local people were employed · R4.6 million in wages · 60% women 269 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Park Operations 2007/2008, 17 SMMEs to work on infrastructure at a cost of R7.5 Commercial Development · New Investment in tourism facilities · Refurbishm ent of existing facilities 270 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Commercial Development · Day visitor facilities · Tourism activities Craft · 300 crafters · Training and product development · Linkages with high value markets ­Mr Price Home 271 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Cultural heritage · iSimangaliso Authority must present, promote and conserve the cultural heritage of the area · Local economic development: 5 cultural performance groups Community Based Natural Resource ·S Use · Sustainable resource use · Many people rely on resources for survival · Local Area Plans: develop sustainable natural resource use plans in consultation with land claimants · Eg 3 500 women collect incema in April/May 272 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) AGRICULTURAL PROGRAMME · Provides for improved soil, access to water, fencing, access to seeds, training and enterprise skills development · 40 community gardens established in 2008 · 900, mainly women · 400 women completed the certified training course Celebratory People and Park Events 273 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Water, sediments and the well-being of St Lucia Presentation to World Bank visiting team: 24 April 2007 274 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) 275 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Mkhuze River St Lucia estuary Size = 35 000 ha Length = 70 km Mkhuze Swamp Mean depth = 0.9 m Mzinene River Rainfall = 1000 mm p.a. Evaporation = 1200 -1400 mm p.a. Hluhluwe River St Lucia Estuary Nyalazi Umfolozi Swamp St Lucia Mouth Umfolozi River 20 km Source: Taylor 2006 St Lucia catchment areas 276 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Now · The rivers have lost 20% of their mean annual runoff ­(mainly due to tree plantations, irrigation and farm dams) · The catchment area sheds a lot of sediment ­(mainly due to its steepness) · In 1950 the combined Umfolozi/St Lucia Mouth closed as a result of sediment accumulation · At that stage a separate mouth was dredged for the Umfolozi, and the management objective since then has been to keep the St Lucia and Umfolozi Mouths separate. Caused by.... 277 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) The sugar farming industry drained the Umfolozi swamps. The canals carried sediments to the mouth rather than letting them be caught by the swamp · Canalisation of the Umfolozi for sugar farming resulted in catchment sediments being deposited in the estuary mouth rather than being trapped in the swamp · Shallow St Lucia cannot afford to have an increased rate of sediment accumulation · BUT- this means the loss of fresh water. 278 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) The sediments pass straight down the canals to be deposited at the St Lucia Mouth The Umfolozi Catchment sheds 3 million m3 of sediment each year This is what the sea off St Lucia looks like after just a very small flood in the Umfolozi ­ St Lucia cannot tolerate this sediment - so we have to keep the Umfolozi Mouth separate from the St Lucia Mouth 279 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Relative flows in rivers Mkhuze These are the rivers that Umfolozi currently enter the St Lucia Hluhluwe estuarine system Nyalazi Mzinene Mpate Relative flows in rivers Mkhuze Umfolozi Hluhluwe But, this is missing Nyalazi Mzinene Mpate 280 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Current configuration ­ separate mouths The mouths have been kept separate since 1952 St Lucia mouth Umfolozi mouth Flood plain 281 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Big floods St Lucia mouth Umfolozi Flood plain 282 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Drought condition Mouth closed naturally at start of drought Umfolozi water diverted into St Lucia Flood plain Big breach - outflow of backed up water The water backs up to ~3.5 m above MSL before breaching St Lucia mouth Umfolozi mouth Flood plain 283 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) Three minor Umfolozi floods in December 2006 ­ huge sediment loads and seawater discoloured past Sodwana (~100 km away) Flood debris on beach Sediment in waves 284 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) intervention · To prevent the Umfolozi sediments from entering St Lucia, the Umfolozi River has been kept separate from St Lucia since 1952. Time line · Canals dug in 1930s · Sediment problems in 1940s · Mouth blocked in 1950 · Separate mouths made for St Lucia and the Umfolozi in 1952 altered hydrology for St Lucia ongoing dredging programme 285 SESSION 4 | Paola Agostini (continued) We need to restore the Umfolozi-St Lucia link ­ but without importing the sediments 286 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu Hydrological/Water Resources Applications in South Asia Bank- Examples from Bank-supported Activities N. Harshadeep (harsh@worldbank.org) Winston Yu (wyu@worldbank.org) South Asia Region The World Bank WORKSHOP ON HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS TO INFORM BANK POLICIES AND PROJECTS: BRIDGING THE GAP November 24-25, 2008 Overview Examples of Hydrology & Water Resources Decision Support Systems in SAR Lessons Learned Future Potential 287 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Many Water Problems: The Triple Bottom-Line Economic Low productivity/incomes Pricing/Subsidies Efficiency Sustainable Growth Investment Prioritization Political Cooperation Environmental Social Pollution Water Productivity Poverty Alleviation Groundwater Livelihoods/Equity Catchment degradation Access to clean water/Health Siltation Gender/Indigenous People Sustainable agriculture Resettlement/Migration Floods/Droughts Decision Support Systems Knowledge Base To build awareness & consensus GIS, Spreadsheets, Databases, Documents, Web, Other Software Stakeholder Interaction Data (Policy, Economic, Technical) Management Options Outputs Information Awareness, problem analysis, analysis of Knowledge alternatives, decision- support, and collaboration Decision-Making Models Optimization/Simulation/Multicriteria Analysis for ·Planning ·Operation 288 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Water Resources: An Example of a Typical River Basin... Agriculture Department Livestock Department Precipitation Forest Department Fishing Rural Water Supply Department Hydropower Forest Urban Water Supply Department Reservoir Irrigation Department Runoff Industry Power River Basin Boundary Department Urban WSS Industry Department Rural WSS Rainfed Agr Return Flow Fisheries Department Irrigation Recreation Groundwater Inflow Community Use Environment Department Transport Department Navigation Tourism Department Infiltration / Recharge Wetlands / Environment Livestock Groundwater Department Base Flow / Pumping Groundwater Surface Water Department Farmers/District Admin/Local Govt Irrigation Private Sector/NGOs/Academia/General Public ...there is a need to develop a shared spatial vision Groundwater Outflow among key basin stakeholders... Building a Knowledge Base... 289 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Building a Knowledge Base... Stakeholder Decisions on Water Supply, Demand Planning & Management Analytical Tools To Maramalainagar O4 Palar Basin Schematic D52 Sriperambudur D28 Tank Raingauge Station : Chengam S5 O2 O3 Kaveripakkam To Alandur-Pallavaram- D29 Tank To Rajali Naval Base Tambaram 1400 Mordhana Res. S17 D9 Goddar R D26 S3 S15 D10 1200 C3 S7 Thenneri S13 Mahendravadi Tank RajathopeKanar R NeenjalMadu R Kavundinya R D11 D15 D16 Tank Malattar R C15 Kolavoy D5 Poiney Anaicut D53 Vegavathi R Thenneri Odai R S6 D27 S8 1000 Rajathope Tank Poiney R D25 Kanar Res. D17 D44 D13 C16 Rainfall in mm 800 S1 D1 D2 C1 D4 C2 D6 D8 C19 D12 D14 D18 D19 C6 C7 D30 D31 D43 D45 C18 D50 C20 D51 E1 C4 C5 Palar Anaicut C8 C22 C17 D23 D21 Agaramar R VellakkalKanar R D20 SakkaraMallur D3 D7 600 Tank Kalavai Tank Kiliyar R D24 D49 S2 400 S4 Cheyyar R S12 DusiMamandur 99 Naga R D22 Tank 200 D38 D42 D48 O1 Madurantagan S10 Kanmandalar R Tank To Ponnayar Basin 0 S11 D37 C21 Uttaramerur Mirugandanadi R S16 Aliabad Anaicut Tank KamandalarNaga R KamandalaNagaNadi Shenbagathope D46 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 Cheyyar Odai R Anaicut C14 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 Res. Uttaramerur D33 D39 D47 Years Anaicut 5 Years Moving Average Average Trend Line D35 D40 S9 D32 D34 C11 D41 C10 C9 LowerCheyyar C12 C13 Cheyyar R Upper Cheyyar Thandarai S14 Anaicut Anaicut Anaicut Cheyyar R D36 Spatial & Non-Spatial Analyses Models/Decision Support Systems · · · Rivers Canals Soils Knowledge Base Wetlands · · · Surveys & Remote Sensing GPS Stakeholder Views Maps/Attribute Data 290 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Supporting Decisions Decisions Decisions Involvement Involvement Analysis Analysis India Hydrology Project Key Activities · Monitoring network · Proven software for data entry, processing, analysis and storage · Establishment of permanent data centre in the participating States, CWC and CGWB and inter-agency data exchange · Standard procedures for data collection, analysis and storage through HIS protocols · Training · Reference manual for HIS operations · Computerized historical data 291 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Some Benefits of the HIS a)Monitoring of droughts and floods b)Optimum design of water conservation /control and highway structures: (i)Proper design of 13,000 check dams, re-designing of earth dams and rain water harvesting structures, Planning of lower Kolar, Parvathi and Kalisindh dams in Madhya Pradesh, impact of rain water harvesting structures on ground water recharge in AP, Karnataka, Gujarat, Maharasthra and CGWB, sea water ingression along coast in TN and AP. c)Planning on inter state rivers d)Ground Water resource assessment and auditing at district/block/village and watershed levels -Developed the ground water bill in Tamil Nadu State. e)Water Quality monitoring related to public health Mapped high levels of Nitrate, Fluoride and BOD/COD, and used by the Pollution Control Boards and PHE Deptts.for regulatory actions on polluters, Detection of Arsenic/Fluoride in Madhya Pradesh and Fluoride in Kerala f)Supporting framing of state water policies, acts and regulations (i)facilitating ground water regulatory authorities in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu,used for development of Master Plan for Krishna Basin, water availability studies for power projects, Acts/Policy changes in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Kerala states Design manuals Operation Manuals Field and Laboratory manuals 292 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) India: Hydrology Project II · Drought Management Planning & Basic · Integrated Water Resources Operational DSS Management · Conjunctive Use · Basic Operational Mgmt. Real-Time Flood · Flood Forecasting Q a a He Tul agt Forecasting & ri a A r Gol rg n Ke y lw u H ang Ye l o k hun a t e Y rka n H L u He h S ui Qin Yar l i Gi g t S rkh a gshui o u a i Na j Go l He DATA NOT AVAILABLE Ko kch He b n Fe He r tr l -Ami s her a Pa nj h k S yo Chi and-i ma Qu rHe i He Y lo e w We ar B · Flood Impact Estimation r - i ka Jing Kun Darri -i Sh H e He Swat Tao H e Wei n Ya g tze W i He e JAMMU & KASHMIR K Ba i ong abu l Gha l I ndus i Y ng rra Ku m He zni z a Dn Ji ng B ai Garde a a u H n Sh i He henab C u i H a He a n b Z 'g ya Za g o N N yi kog ab g om Guma and Lora Q u HIMACHAL PRADESH Q Y g rgh a Be s o c n a B g ag Z u un Jian A l arn ak h astan g o n b Shui Jh l m Arg Management DSS Qu T Seng Do rt eu ge vi o h Lng u Fu Ra He P u i sa PUNJAB o th Jiang Lora T anme n h b Zo o S ma Tsa n p o g g n Qu i L uobu ishi Nya n He eji Xi a sh u He t B P nda · Flood Management Strategies Loral Lha n i ara lakna H ai ch D g l He e a ea a J i ng e sa He hagh UTTRANCHAL A g o er u Qi ng He Li tang ali Ta i ng G Da du K a rg b Mu a Po u i sa t Qu Ji al Bo l n Mi J l ej ut l rn a i a n S Ka Yue hui ing th S d xi H Li T uo Pe jna ra ma u r B h p ta e ak HARYANA Ji ang Na ri i Gand Ny a g Qu Gan Dn ri i g He u n a g Y a Ji n l o He Ma i Lohi Yu Kal d ak n d S hui o si t i u i Shu K Sh ui Mu a Z Ji an g S un Go a ARUNACHAL PRADESH S b n ri l u a si i He m ti i u S Ch sh arda Wu B SIKKIM u ri l- Ni l n J i n a g Di hi ng Ji n ua a g Y mu a a n h areli Sanc B urhi B Sa l e e i ch n L u o g He h He i o g Gan ha Ya l n Ma nas Yac A run w n H M al i e n l Na ra Ca a In d s Ga ges G Po rn t ai u H R h Ca a l h agh Hka ab o ri n RAJASTHAN UTTAR PRADESH ndak ara Ko si Ti st ASSAM Ji ang Nm ai a shui ang Ji NAGALAND Qing iang Atr i L g X Pu d He a on Ji a Mi tharao BIHAR ng u ri u Gh g MEGHALAYA Le i Shu ni Lu i al har n ndwin Can Wu i Ma a a d g l K Mor Barak as S hui h n n al Ban Chi MANIPUR Jia ng an ar a n P an J a ua M e og na So Ho h a m n k n N N Pa a M egh o Ji ang Mu i o MADHYA PRADESH it rb ti a ka B ra r Och tn D ale He t i y h TRIPURA Sa barma sh ui u Jiang G Be i M swari ui B etwa D mo d r a a adhu i Li ir JHARKHAND Jiang S Hong h ui m hwel a Qi n Ji a g rak at i n n a g Xu J i n S ang GUJRAT at M ah S S u Ko A Wu V o th e rial MIZORAM i ge You Ch a b l uJi K X Ji a g m a ha Myitn Ji ang i n X Ji Y WEST BENGAL n i a Mu Bl ack Sa kh ng n l oi Jiang L Bo n an a g Wi g n a Na m Na Ou Z o Ji i u u ag iu a d N rma a n Ha sd o m N anl S ng o Ma i u R np r ed Ga mS CHHATTISGARH e g nadi ong Na m T n a T p ti Maha Song Lo S ong u a P rn Ka a a M n h ma i ytu i B rn a l d n Thai Irra d a ORISSA Bra Gi rn B inh wa d Mon S t an Devi i T el DADRA AND NAGAR HAV P y en gan g Nam Pi ng ga Sam Wardh S Va msa d a G ong od avari Ca a Naga n ra I d v Na n ati MAHARASHTRA h ra Wa n val i g um Yo m Man j Na m Ng a C Di nh Nam ra P egu The un rm Mu e a Bi n ru So n Kh h ma g Da ga in Thau B asse ngyin Phon Din P Sk a To g a a ANDHRA PRADESH ri shn di K e o gal g a g n M a Na m B n hi n Ba g e o M a Kh l u g b a T n a h d ra e h pab a Ma l r Chi GOA Mun e n r Pn e KARNATAKA rav ati r i Ha ga Ch a Ph g San t Ch i Se Kon un ga o ra ya Se dra T g ker · Special Purposes Bha m Te n sse ri Ph.San B S a repok a h t Pe B aa Pl r u ri e ng S n ANDAMAN & NICOBAR Stu Pn Tonl e o naa PO NDICHERRY i r Sap Special- h v n Ba a i d am a N i Koli a ri K ve Dong TAMILNADU rava t i Ama LAKSHDWEEP KERALA Song Periya Cai Lo r n Ca Mau Ki nh u ang e.g.: contaminant transport, ht r C i ta mD Phu we i Kala l Oya M aa h W al awe Purpose DSSs Gan ntan ga a Ke l e boay m groundwater management Pe rak om Ja Ba m T reun ra g Pa han ...using state, national, and global datasets... Kabul River Basin Kabul River Basin System Schematic 13 Storage & Hydro Options 6 Conveyance Options R9: Barak S10 R10: Panjshir I (Gulbahar) 5 Groundwater Options S9 Salang R. S10A Panjshir R. C16 14 Irrigation Areas C19 D23 C20 C21 R8: Totumdara S1 U. Kabul/ D3 C22 Panjshir R. S3 Maidan R. D20 A3 C24 R12: Haijan R1 Paghman R. Barikow R. S3a D7 D3a C23 R11: Bagdara Garband R. A4 C12 R1a Qargha R. D30 A2 A4a S11 C7 C12a S8 D14 Kabul City D11 C10 C9 C8 R14: Maripur Kabul R. A1 C6 D4 D2 R15: Naghlu C5 R13: Amir Ghazi C4a C4 R7: Gat Logar R. C2 C3 D5 Butkhak R. R16A: Sarubi 1 R4: Tangi C1 S5 Wardak C30 R3: Chak-e- S12 R2: Kajab Wardak D4a S13A R5: Karwan R6: Surkhab (Einak Mine) R16B: Sarubi 2 R17: Laghman A Surkhab R. C32 C31 S13 Charkh R. Pul-i-Qarghai Hyd. Unit S6 S7 D37 Khas Konar on Konar R. No Data for Gauge at S14 Saltanpur R18: Darunta Existing Water Supply (dom, comm, ind) demand D42 D42 is about 22000ha D41 D40 D38 Proposed DWS Surkhrud River R19: Konar A Existing Irrigation scheme S16 C35 C34 C33 S15 Pul-i-Gawerdesh (Lanay River) 2 D43 R21: Kama R20: Konar B Proposed new or expansion of existing irrigation scheme "Site 4" Environmental flow requirement (EFR) S17 C37 C36 D39 Existing Reservoir Kabul River tributaries south of the Surkhand Proposed new reservoir No Data on Flow D43 is about 36000ha E1 Kabul River at Dakah Existing Reservoir to be rehabilitated Planning requires a systems approach in the basin Aquifer Node Connection Node project-by- rather than a project-by-project approach Start Node 293 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Annual Incremental Kabul Water Supply Supply Sources (MCM) Modeled Cropping Pattern Node 60,000 Paghman Dam R1 11 Haijan Dam R12 38 50,000 d/s of Gat Dam C5 59 Irrigated Area Under Crop (hectares) Cotton 40,000 Panjshir R. Surface Water C21 0 Orchards Panjshir I Dam R10 16 Melons Vegetbl 30,000 Max Live % of Energy Parwan Groundwater Investment A3 19 Capacity Grapes Node Dams and Reservoir Options Storage Gross Output Kabul Basin Power Generation (MCM) Capacity Cost ($m) (GWH) 143 (MW) Alfalfa Rice 20,000 Maize 350 R2 Kajab Kama (Konar River barrage) 86 30% $69 Wheat 10,000 300 R3 Chak-e-Wardak B (Site 4 run-of-river) Konar Existing 2 3 Power Generation (GWh) Konar A R4 Tangi Wardag Daruta 0 0% $0 250 0 Gat R7 D3 D3A D4 Laghman A D7 D20 D24 D30 37 D2 D5 D37 D38 38% D39 D40 $24 D42 D41 D43 Sarubi High Head (ROR) 200 R8 Totumdara Sarubi I 0 0% $0 150 R9 Barak Naglu 180 60% $648 348 100 Maripar R10 Panjshir I (Gulbahar) Bagdara 249 32% $335 446 100 100 R11 Bagdara Panjshir I (Gulbahar) 27 52% $602 109 210 Barak 50 R12 Haijan Chak-e-Wardak 2 10% $2 0 R13 Amir Ghazi MaxPow er Generation Requirement Existing Min Pow er Generation Constraint JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN R14 MAR APR MAY Maripar FEB Existing 1 66 R15 Naglu Existing 394 75 R16A Sarubi I Existing 27 22 R16B Sarubi High Head (ROR) ROR $0 0 0 R17 Laghman A 0 0% $0 0 0 Sample Outputs R18 Daruta R19 Konar A Existing 0 0% $0 33 0 11 0 R20 Konar B (Site 4 run-of-river) ROR $230 94 81 R21 Kama (Konar River barrage) ROR $114 150 60 581 $2,024 1,604 728 Major Uncertainties Costs Hydrology Topography Project Characteristics ­ Storage (resettlement, cost curves) ­ Irrigation (agronomy, economics) ­ Hydropower (installed capacity, transmission) ­ Water Supply (gw availability, conveyance & treatment costs) Need to address these knowledge gaps 294 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Investments Priority Preparatory Studies (ESA, Feasibility, Detailed Designs, Financing) Update Kabul Basin Investment Plan Pre- Rapid Pre- feasibility Studies Sarubi-II, Konar Storage Kajab, Haijan/Shatoot, Gat & HP Panjshir-I (Gulbahar) Irrigation Shomali, L. Kabul, Logar Water Parwan Aquifer, Mining Supply uses, Conveyance & Treatment Multi-sectoral Water Coordination in GoA SCWAM Ministry of Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Urban Ministry of National Energy and Irrigation, and Development Mines and Environmental Water (MEW) Livestock (MAIL) (MUD) Industry (MMI) Protection Agency (NEPA) Water Resources Planning Unit 295 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) 296 Uttar Pradesh Water Sector Restructuring Project SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Jaunpur Branch Sub-basin Geodatabase Current Cropping Pattern with Current Proposed Cropping Pattern with Groundwater and Canal Uses) Conjunctive Use with Crop Intensification and Diversification 10- The 10-yr simulation of two scenarios show that if the current management practice is continued, the groundwater level will rise in Head and Middle manner. Reaches where as it will fall in tail region in an unsustainable manner. In contrast, if the conjunctive water management (use of both groundwater and canal) is adopted along with increased intensification and diversification, the water- (<3 30% water-logged area (<3.0 mbgl) will decrease from possible 30% to about 45%. 45% Overall JBS GW level will stabilize at about 8.0-9.0 mbgl which is ideal for crop diversification. intensification and diversification. 297 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) High Current Climate Variability across space and time Within a year Temperature Rainfall Runoff Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Characteristics in Bangladesh N163|Outflow to: River Node 165 [m^3/s] Hardinge Bridge-rated-Q [m^3/s] Ganges Basin Runoff at Hardinge Bridge (TRMM & IMD Observed Rainfall) 45000 40000 35000 30000 Runoff (m3/s) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 298 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Ratio: SR-02: TEESTA: 13500.00 Peak 2 1.5 1 0.5 Onset 0 Recession Base F1 F2 Duration 299 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Climate change impacts on Salinity intrusion in coastal groundwater aquifers ! ( Urgench Shymkent ( ! Tashkent ! Dzhambul ( ! ! ( ( ! Almaty Bishkek ! ! ( Regional Perspectives ! BaotouHuhot ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! Osh ( ( ! ( ! Navoi Dzhizak Fergana ! ! ( Tianjin ( ! ( ! ! ( ( Bukhara ! ( ! ( ! ( Kashi ! ! ( ( ChardzhevKarshi Dushanbe ! ( ! ! ( Yinchuan TaiyuanBeijing ! ( ! ( ! ( Kulob ( ! ( ! Mary Termez ( ! ( ! ! ( ShijiazhuangJinan ( ! ( ! ( ! Konduz ! Xining ! ( ( ! ! Lanzhou ! ( ! ( ! Mazar-E Sharif ! ( ! ! ! ! ( ! ( Kabul Xi'an ! ! Luoyang Herat ! ! ! ( Peshawar !! ! ( ( Zhengzhou ! ( ! ! ! ( ! ! ( Rawalpindi!!( ! ! ( ! Srinagar ( ! ! ( ! ! AmritsarLahore Hefei ! ( ! Kandahar ! ! ( ! ! ! ( ( !!(( ! Faisalabad ! ( Chengdu Wuhan ! ( Quetta ( ! Chandigarh Karnali Lhasa ! ( Chongqing ( ! ( ! Zahedan ( ! New Delhi G ! an Delhi Dingri He ! ( ( ! Changsha Gandak ! ( ! g!e ( ! s ! ! ! ( Jaipur l ! ! !! Kathmandu ( ! ( ! Nanchang ba Kanpur! ! ! !! ! Guiyang ( !am a ! ( ! Tis ( ! ! Ch ( Lucknow Patna Betw ! ! ta ( ! ( ! Karachi ! ( Bana s ! Varanasi ( ( ! ! ! ( Shillong Kohima ! ( Myitkyina Kunming ! ( Imphal ( ! ! ( Hyderabad Son Rajshahi ! ( Dacca !( GandhinagarAhmadabad Bhopal ! ( ( ! CalcuttaKhulna Nanning ! ( ! ( Sankh ( Narmada ! ! Chittagong Mandalay Kowloon Hasdo ( !!( ( ! ! ( ( ( ! ! !( Barisal ( ! ( ! ! ! ( GuangzhouVictoria ( ! ! ( ( ! ! ! ! Nagpur ! ( ! ! ! Yen ! Bai ! ( ! ! Hanoi ( ! ! ( ! ( Bhubaneshwar ! Sittwe Magway ( Taunggyi ! Hoa Binh! !( ! ! ! ! ( ( ( ( ! ( Fangcheng Gang Thanh HoaHon Gai Bombay ( ! ! ! ( ! ! ! ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ! Chiang Mai Pune Vinh ! ! ! ! ( ! Hyderabad ! Vishakhapatnam ! (! ! ! Vientiane ! ! ( PeguRangoon ! ( !! Udon Thani ( ( ! Bassein ! ( ! ! ( ! !! ! ! ( ! ! ( ! Moulmein ! ! ! ( Khon Kaen ! Hue ! ( ! !! ! ( ! ( Nakhon Sawan Savannakhet Da Nang ( ! ! ! ! ( ! ! ! ! ( ! ! ! Quang Ngai ! ( Bangkok ! ! ! ! ( ! ! ! ! ! ( ! Tavoy ! ! !( !( ! ! Play Cu MangaloreBangalore Madras ! ( ( ! Samut Prakan!!!( ! ! ! ! !! ! Batdambang ( Siemreab ! ! ! ! ( ! Qui Nhon ( ( ! ! ! ( ( ! ( ! Samut Sakhon ! ! ( ! ! Phnom Penh ! ! ( Pondicherry ! ! ! ! ! ! ( Port Blair ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! Ho Chi Minh City ( ! ! ! ! ! Cochin Rach Gia ! !! (!( !( ! ! ! My Tho ! ! ! ( ! ! ( ( Tan An ( ! ! ! ( ( ! Madurai ! Can Tho ! ( ! ( ( ! ! ! ( ! ( ! ! ! ! ! ! ( ! ! ! ! ! ( ( ! ! ( ! ! Faisalabad Lahore ( ! ( ! ! ( Amritsar Simla ( ! Chandigarh ( ! Alaknanda li Ka Ka rn ! ( ali Dandeldhura Jumla ! ! Madi Delhi Dhangarhi Dingri He New Delhi ( ! ! ( ! Sallyan BaglungPokhara Sa ! Nepalganj Kali Ganda ! ! r da ! k Kathmandu Bu ( ! Bhimphedi Punakha Bhairawa rhi ! Gangtok ! Paro ! ! Ramechhap Ga ! ! Gh ! ! Thimphu Jaipur n Lucknow nd Aru agh Ilam a a ! ( al ! ( ra k mb ! Tis Ch a Kanpur RajbirajBiratnagar Ga ta ( ! ! nd G Kosi ! ( om a k Ya ati Atrai ! m un a Ganges Patna Ghugri Varanasi ( ! ! ( r ha Mahana as ! ( Ban or M nda Son Parbati Rajshahi ( ! twa Dacca Hoo Be ! ( ! ( ghly ( ! Bhopal Nar mad ! ( ( ! a Khulna ( ! Sankh ( Calcutta ! ! ( ( ! Barisal ! ( Hasdo ( ! ! 300 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Climate Change & Glaciers D. Alford, R. Armstrong, A. Racoviteanu http://youtube.com/watch?v=UoKF2AGtxmo&feature=related 301 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Build on Global Datasets Many tools today for Climate Risk Management 302 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) GRACE Is the First Satellite to Monitor Groundwater Levels GRACE senses water storage Mississippi River basin 8 changes as variations in the Observed Groundwater Rodell et al., Earth's gravity field 6 GRACE Groundwater 4 Hydrogeology, 2006 Water Storage (cm) 2 New estimates match 0 groundwater well -2 measurements in the U.S., -4 and can be applied globally -6 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 e.g. "Northern India, on the other hand, shows a declining gravitational field. Again, the cause is irrigation, but in this case, water is being pumped out of the ground. Overall, about 150 cubic kilometers per year is being drawn out of wells, Wahr said, but some of that water presumably percolates back into the ground to recharge the aquifer. ..." Illinois Yeh et al., WRR, 2006 GRACE team: · U. of Texas · JPL · GSFC http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0015/001507/150730E.pdf Source: M. Rodell/614.3 The final frontier... http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/India.htm 303 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Bihar Flood Management Information System (FMIS) Sample GIS Application fmis Inundation Duration Map Of Part Of Sitamarhi And Muzaffarpur Districts, Bihar Bihar Legend ± 85°30'E 85°45'E During 16th June 07 to 18th July 07 Flood Inundation Observed District Boundary Block Boundary ^ 26°30'N Breach point Village Boundary 26°30'N Inundation > 1day Inundation > 4 days Inundation > 11days Inundation > 20 days SITAMARHI Belsand Inundation > 32 days NH 77 NH 77 River ^ Runnisaidpur LOCATION MAP Bihar Study Area Breach point near Pachnuar Murahi village Sitamarhi Muzaffarpur Aurai Ba mg at MUZAFFARPUR i Projection: Lambert Conformal Conic 26°15'N Datum: WGS 84 Pixel size: 50m*50m 26°15'N Katra Scale: 1:200,000 0 5 10 Km Inundation Layer provided by DSC, NRSA Prepared Under World Bank-DFID Technical Assistance By Flood Management Information System Cell Water Resources Department Government of Bihar 85°15'E 85°30'E 85°45'E eMail:fmisc_bihar@yahoo.co.in FMISB/MAP/IDU/FDT/17062007/A3/001 DISASTER ALERT SYSTEM 304 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Improved Flood Management and Forecasting in the Mahanadi River Basin, Orissa, India Decision-Support tools on the Cooum River Sub-Basin, Tamil Nadu, India 305 SESSION 4 | N. Harshadeep and Winston Yu (continued) Bank- Lessons from Bank-supported Projects in SAR The rest of it... · Improving sharing, access · Improving targeted research · satellite- Better use of satellite-based tools · Institutional (coordination, partnerships, structured stakeholder participation) · Need more progress on regional front Some of it... · Increasing awareness & capacity on technical aspects · Good examples of use · Hydrology/DSS starting to be mainstreamed into Bank- financed water projects · IWRM ­ moving from concept to implementation Future Directions Information ­ Modernization (Satellite Hydrology, Communications) ­ Appropriate Analysis Institutions ­ Capacity-building ­ Coordination & Partnerships Investments ­ Hydrometeorological ­ Water infrastructure 306 307 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 202.123.4567 www.worldbank.org/water/wpp