WORLDBANKGROUP GROPE Q GFDRR EI ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE TaJ*iki*stan IGDP '.Pplto $6.9 billion* 85mlin T ajikistan's population and This map displays GDP by province economy are exposed to in Tajikistan, with greater color KYRGYZ REPUBL C earthquakes and floods, with saturation indicating greater GDP earthquakes posing the greater risk within a province. The blue circles of a high impact, lower probability indicate the risk of experiencing event. The model results for pres- floods and the orange circles the UZBEtISTAN ent-day risk shown in this risk profile risk of earthquakes in terms of nor- are based on population and gross malized annual average of affected domestic product (GDP) estimates GDP. The largest circles represent for 2015. The estimated damage the greatest normalized risk. The caused by historical events is inflated risk is estimated using flood and to 2015 US dollars. earthquake risk models. CA Almost 75 percent of Tajikistan's pop- The table displays the provinces at ulation lives in rural environments. greatest normalized risk for each The country's GDP was approximate- peril. In relative terms, as shown in .L ly US$6.9 billion in 2015, with just the table, the province at greatest over half derived from services, and risk of floods is Badakhsoni Kuni, agriculture and industry generating and the one at greatest risk of the remainder. Tajikistan's per capita earthquakes is Districts of Repub- Badakhsh iuhi GDP was $810. lican Subordination. In absolute terms, it is Districts of Republican Khaton Subordination. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF PAK!STAN AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) IANISTA Annual Average of Affected GDP(%) GDP (billions of $) Badakhshoni 5 Districts of Republican 5 5 There is a high correlation Kuni Subordination (r=0.95) between the Sogd 2 Khatlon U EARTHQUAKE population and GDP of a Tadzhikistan 1 Badakhshoni 5 1 province. Territories Kuni Khatlon I Sogd 3 0 Negligible TajikistanWORLDBANKGROUP Q GFDRR ISK" ANOFIEENRL5AEA T he most devastating flood in Tajikistan since it gained its time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) Affected GDP (%) for 10 and 10O-year reurn periods independence in 1991 oc- years. It does not mean a 100-year One h[ock = 2% 20 curred in 1992. It caused over 1,300 flood will occur exactly once every i& a fatalities and about $500 million in 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a 10 damage. Flooding in 1998 caused flood of any return period to occur Annual average 2 more than 50 deaths and close to more than once in the same year, or KYRGYZ REPUBLIC $100 million in damage. A flood in to appear in consecutive years, or not 2005 caused no fatalities, but about to happen at all over a long period of $60 million in damage. In 2010, time. flooding caused over 70 fatalities and over $200 million in damage. Damage If the 10- and 100-year bars are the from further floods in 1999, 2002, same height, then the impact of a 10- and 2007 was significantly less, but year event is as large as that of a 100- each event caused over 20 deaths. year event, and the annual average of This record highlights Tajikistan's affected GDP is dominated by events great vulnerability to floods, the that happen relatively frequently. rapid succession of which has a large Ifthe impact ofa 100-year event is cumulative effect on the country. much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual Distrits of Repuhiran ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even Dushanbe Suhreinaion as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts. affected by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years The annual average population affect- (black). The horizontal line across the ed by flooding in Tajikistan is about bars also shows the annual average of 100,000 and the annual average GDP affected by floods. affected GDP about$100 million. Within the various provinces, the 10- When a flood has a 10-year return and 100-year impacts do not differ period, it means the probability of much, so relatively frequent floods PAK STAN occurrence of a flood of that magni- have large impacts on these averages. AFCH A NIS AN tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of T WORLDBANKGROUP E RO ANDEENTRAL A5A(ECA) T ajikistan's worst earthquake of any return period to occur more Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) Affected GOP (%) for since 1900 took place in than once in the same year, or to 10 and 100-year return periods 1907 in Karatag (Qaratog), appear in consecutive years, or not One h[ock = 10% 90 with a magnitude of 7.4. It caused to happen at all over a long period 0 I about 14,000 fatalities and almost of time. 40 $200 million in damage. Another Annual average 2 major earthquake occurred in 1949 If the 10- and 100-year bars are the K Z in Khait. The landslide it triggered same height, then the impact of a killed approximately 12,000 people. 10-year event is as large as that of a Other earthquakes that have af- 100-year event, and the annual av- fected Tajikistan occurred in 1815, erage of affected GDP is dominated UZBEKI5TAN 1895, 1924, 1930, 1985, and 1989. by events that happen relatively fre- quently. If the impact of a 100-year This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP. greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual CfN higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre- represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can quakes with return periods of 10 still have large impacts. years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars The annual average population af- also shows the annual average of fected by earthquakes in Tajikistan GDP affected by earthquakes. is about 400,000 and the annual average affected GDP about $300 When an earthquake has a 10-year million. The annual averages of return period, it means the prob- fatalities and capital losses caused ability of occurrence of an earth- by earthquakes are about 200 and quake of that magnitude or greater about $100 million, respectively. is 10 percent per year. A 100-year The fatalities and capital losses earthquake has a probability of caused by more intense, less fre- occurrence of 1 percent per year. quent events can be substantially This means that over a long period larger than the annual averages. For PAKISTAN of time, an earthquake of that mag- example, an earthquake with a 0.4 nitude will, on average, occur once percent annual probability of oc- AFf HAN ISTAN every 100 years. It does not mean currence (a 250-year return period a 100-year earthquake will occur event) could cause about 10,000 exactly once every 100 years. In fatalities and $2 billion in capital fact, it is possible for an earthquake loss (about 30 percent of GDP). |GFDRRE Taj kis anWORLDBANKGROUP "AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Districts of Republican Subordination, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. EXCEDANC URVE PROABILTY 201 AND208EARTHQUAKE FI EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP E affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 10 90 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 2080 2080a75 4 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate .2 60 6 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 452080 Tajikistan had experienced a 100-year return period 4 flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an d1 30 estimated $500 million. In 2080, however;the affected GDP 2 from the same type of event would range from about $6 2015 44 15 billion to about $9 billion. If Tajikistan had experienced a 2015 2015 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would 10 50 100 250 10 50 100 250 have been about $5 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from Return period (years) Return period (years) the same type of event would range from about $30 billion 10 -1112 1 0.4. 10 2 1 04 to about $80 billion, due to population growth, urbaniza- Probability (%) Probability (%) tion, and the increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and L Daniell and A.Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all.historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.