REPORT NO.: RES45062 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF POLIO ERADICATION SUPPORT PROJECT APPROVED ON JULY 12, 2012 TO FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA December 23, 2020 HEALTH, NUTRITION AND POPULATION GLOBAL PRACTICE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA REGION Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Shubham Chaudhuri Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager/Manager: Magnus Lindelow Task Team Leaders: Noel Chisaka, Ana Besarabic The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing IMPACT Immunization Plus and Malaria Progress by Accelerating Coverage and Transforming Services JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency NPHCDA National Primary Health Care Development Agency OPV Oral Polio Vaccine PDO Project Development Objective RVP Regional Vice President UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WHO World Health Organization 2 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P130865 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 12-Jul-2012 31-Dec-2020 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA National Primary Health Care Development Agency Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of the proposed Project is to assist, as part of a global polio eradication effort, the Government of Nigeria to achieve and sustain at least 80% coverage with OPV immunization in every state in the country Current PDO To assist the Recipient, as part of a global polio eradication effort, to achieve and sustain at least 80 percent coverage with oral polio vaccine immunization in every state in the Recipient’s territory, and improve national routine immunization coverage. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-62890 27-Jun-2018 23-Oct-2018 04-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 150.00 138.15 6.42 IDA-58530 07-Jun-2016 07-Aug-2016 20-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2020 125.00 119.76 .01 IDA-56180 10-Apr-2015 22-May-2015 29-May-2015 31-Dec-2020 200.00 195.32 3.81 3 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) IDA-51330 12-Jul-2012 16-Apr-2013 05-Jun-2013 31-Jul-2015 94.94 93.93 0 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 1. This restructuring paper seeks the decision of the Regional Vice President (RVP) to: (i) extend the closing date of the Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) and related open credits (56180, 58530, and 62890) from December 31, 2020 to April 30, 2021, which requires RVP approval as this extension will bring the cumulative extension two years beyond the original Closing date for Credit Nos. 56180 and 58530; and (ii) reallocate US$8 million equivalent under Credit No. 62890 from Category 3, allocated to the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) to Category 2, allocated to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) for the purposes of routine immunization vaccine procurement. The reallocation falls within the Project scope and is proposed to be retroactively effective as of December 1, 2020. The proposed level 2 restructuring was requested by the Government on December 18, 2020 to ensure all project funds are fully utilized within the existing scope of the project while considering freight delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic that have affected vaccines shipments. A. Project Status 2. The World Bank has provided financing for polio eradication efforts in Nigeria through the Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) since 2012 with the approval of the first parent project on July 12, 2012 for US$95 million equivalent which became effective on June 5, 2013 and had an original closing date of July 31, 2015. After the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) funds from the parent project were exhausted in November 2014, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) took over the OPV financing with a US$67 million credit. Subsequently, three other additional financing (AF) credits were approved - the first AF for US$200 million equivalent was approved by the Board on April 10, 2015, with a closing date of July 31, 2017, the second AF for US$125 million equivalent was approved by the Board on June 7, 2016, with an original closing date of December 31, 2018, and the third AF for US$150 million equivalent was approved by the Board on June 27, 2018, with an original closing date of December 31, 2020. The original credit has fully disbursed, while the credit associated with the first AF (56180) has a remaining balance of US$3.81 million equivalent, the credit associated with the second AF (58530) has a remaining balance of US$0.01 million, and the credit associated with the third AF (62890) has a remaining balance of US$6.42 million equivalent. At the time the third AF was approved, the closing date of the project and all open credits was extended to December 31, 2020. 3. The original Project Development Objective (PDO) of the project was ‘to assist the Government of Nigeria, as part of a global polio eradication effort, to achieve and sustain at least 80 percent coverage with OPV 4 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) immunization in every state in the country’. The PDO was modified under the first AF to incorporate routine immunization, consistent with the addition of the second component with the same focus. Thus, the modified PDO was ‘to assist the Recipient, as part of a global polio eradication effort, to achieve and sustain at least 80 percent coverage with oral polio vaccine immunization in every state in the Recipient’s territory and sustain national routine immunization coverage’. With the last AF, the PDO was revised to reflect the project’s objective to not just sustain but improve routine immunization in the country. The parent project had one component, that is, the support supply of OPV. As part of the subsequent AFs, the components were revised to include two additional components on routine immunization support focusing on vaccine procurement and routine immunization system strengthening. 4. Two earlier restructurings were also approved under Credit No. 6289: (1) on March 27, 2019 which reallocated funds under disbursement categories in Schedule 2, Section III on Withdrawal of the Proceeds of the Financing in the Financing Agreement (IDA Credit 6289) between the Republic of Nigeria and the Association signed on October 23, 2018; and (2) on July 19, 2019 which reallocated SDR 7,250,00 (US$ 10 million equivalent) from UNICEF to the World Health Organization (WHO) to help finance polio operations cost as an emergency response for polio outbreak campaigns against incidences of vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 in some states (this is different from the wild poliovirus). 5. The project is rated satisfactory for both the PDO and implementation progress. It has been recommended to close the project with highly satisfactory ratings given that the PDO and all related PDO indicators will likely be exceeded. Specifically, not only was the target coverage of 80 percent for polio met in the country but polio has been officially eradicated and the country was certified wild polio free in August of 2020. The part of the PDO that deals with improving routine immunization coverage is yet to be confirmed since the country delays some surveys due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey results are expected to become available before the new proposed project closing date. B. Rationale for Restructuring 6. The proposed extension of closing date and associated credits would allow sufficient time to procure and receive vaccines in-country, critical for routine immunization operations and to transition the construction of the Lagos vaccine hub, originally envisioned under Component 3 on routine immunization system strengthening which was introduced as part of the third AF, to the oncoming World Bank-supported Nigeria Immunization Plus and Malaria Progress by Accelerating Coverage and Transforming Services (IMPACT) Project – Phase 1 of the Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) (P167156). 7. The expansion and rehabilitation of the Lagos Hub for storage and distribution of vaccines could not be completed before the current project closing date of December 31, 2020. The Government and the World Bank agreed to transition this activity to the IMPACT Project which is expected to become effective shortly. A separate restructuring of the IMPACT Project will be processed in due time. The US$8 million equivalent originally earmarked for the Lagos hub expansion under the Polio Eradication Support Project will be reallocated for vaccine procurement to be implemented by UNICEF, as was done since the beginning of this project. This reallocation, which falls within the Project scope, will help the Government meet a financing gap for routine immunization vaccines, originally envisioned to be financed under the new IMPACT project which is not yet effective. Furthermore, the proposed reallocation will ensure project funds are fully utilized by the new project 5 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) closing date. The four-month closing date extension along with all open credits was requested given a challenged global supply chain including freight delays due to the on-going COVID-19 pandemic in order to provide adequate time for the vaccines to be delivered to the country. 8. Given the urgency of the Government’s request and to enable the country to receive the needed routine immunization vaccines, it is proposed that this reallocation be effective as of December 1, 2020. The existing standard agreements (previously referred to as Memoranda of Understanding – MoUs) between the Government and UNICEF will be amended accordingly. The project financing will remain unchanged. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 9. The Government has sent a restructuring request to the World Bank on December 18, 2020 to (i) re- allocate US$8 million equivalent (SDR 5,5481,96.49 million) from NPHCDA to UNICEF, and; (ii) obtain a four- month no-cost extension, from December 31, 2020 to April 30, 2021 of the project closing date and all open associated credits, 56180, 58530 and 62890. 10. The proposed closing date extension by four months from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2021 will bring the cumulative extension of the closing date to almost six years. With this new closing date, the project will be eight years and nine months old at the time of closure. The plan for an Implementation Completion Report (ICR) report of the completed project following its closure on April 30, 2021 is already in place. 11. The proposed closing date extension meets the requirements of the World Bank Investment Project Financing (IPF) Directive regarding extension of closing dates, specifically: (i) the project objectives remains achievable; (ii) the performance of the Borrower remains satisfactory; (iii) the World Bank and the Borrower agree on actions that will be undertaken by the Borrower to complete project critical activities; and (iv) there are no outstanding audits and/or interim financial reports. 12. In addition to the changes mentioned above regarding the project closing date along with related credits as well as the reallocation of proceeds of the Financing under Credit 62890, the proposed restructuring also includes: i. Results Framework: The results framework was revised to change the end target dates for all indicators to April 30, 2021 in line with the proposed project closing date and the intermediate indicator “Number of shipments of vaccines and consumables shipped to Lagos and Kano (Number)” has been dropped since it is no longer relevant for this project; ii. Overall Risk Rating: The overall risk rating was downgraded from high to moderate to take into account the corporate risk calibration effort and the high level of PDO achievement. Political and governance risks remain high given recent Boko Haram attacks and kidnappings in project areas. Macroeconomic risk also remains high with the recent announcement by the National Bureau of Statistic that the country is entering a recession, tightening its fiscal space for social sector investments, including those required for primary healthcare and routine immunization. On the other hand, Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability risk was reduced from high to moderate given the reallocation of 6 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) funds to UNICEF for vaccine procurement which has been in place since the beginning of this project and has always been implemented without major issues. All other risks remain unchanged; iii. Implementation Schedule: Due to likely delays in vaccine shipment and delivery, the implementation schedule is postponed by four months, in line with the proposed project closing date. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ 7 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-51330 Closed 31-Jul-2015 13-Jan-2016 IDA-56180 Effective 31-Jul-2017 31-Dec-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Aug-2021 IDA-58530 Effective 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Aug-2021 IDA-62890 Effective 31-Dec-2020 30-Apr-2021 30-Aug-2021 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed IDA-62890-001 | Currency: XDR iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: Vacc. Gd, NCS, TR, OC - WHO 14,210,000.00 1,131,029.80 14,210,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: Vacc. Gd, NCS, TR, OC - UNICEF 79,060,000.00 77,615,383.23 84,608,196.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: GD, WK, NCS, OC - NPHCDA 11,130,000.00 3,038,495.37 5,581,804.00 100.00 100.00 Total 104,400,000.00 81,784,908.40 104,400,000.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_SORT_TABLE 8 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Rating at Approval Current Rating Political and Governance  High Macroeconomic  High Sector Strategies and Policies  Low Technical Design of Project or Program  Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and  Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary  Moderate Environment and Social  Low Stakeholders  Moderate Other Overall  Moderate . 9 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) . Results framework COUNTRY: Nigeria Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project Project Development Objectives(s) To assist the Recipient, as part of a global polio eradication effort, to achieve and sustain at least 80 percent coverage with oral polio vaccine immunization in every state in the Recipient’s territory, and improve national routine immunization coverage. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Achieve and sustain 80% coverage with oral polio vaccine immunization and improve RI nationwide Immunization coverage of OPV in the country (Percentage) 91.80 80.00 Action: This indicator has been Revised Immunization coverage of OPV in each high risk state 89.00 80.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of LGAs with Pentavalent 3 coverage among children 71.00 24.00 under 12 months <25% in the 12 lagging states (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of LGAs with Pentavalent 3 coverage among children 123.00 41.00 under 12 months <50% in the 12 lagging states (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Children immunized (Number) 0.00 60,561,446.00 Action: This indicator has been Revised 10 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Children immunized under 12 months - pentavalent 3 0.00 30,465,493.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Pentavalent 3 coverage rate (Percentage) 52.00 52.00 Action: This indicator has been Revised Pentavalent 3 coverage among children under 12 months in 12 23.25 33.00 lagging states (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Polio Eradication Support Percentage of campaigns where vaccines are available on time 100.00 100.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Routine Immunization Support People who have received essential health, nutrition, and 0.00 60,561,446.00 population (HNP) services (CRI, Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of children immunized (CRI, Number) 0.00 60,561,446.00 11 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Action: This indicator has been Revised Routine Immunization System Strengthening Percentage of teams with viable vaccine according to the Vaccine 97.00 98.00 Vial Monitor (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Percentage of health facilities in the project area with functioning management committees having community 0.00 30.00 representation (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of LQAS conducted in 12 lagging states (Number) 1.00 5.00 Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of shipments of vaccines and consumables shipped to 1.00 40.00 Lagos and Kano (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion IO Table SPACE 12 The World Bank Nigeria Polio Eradication Support Project (P130865)