STRENGTH RESILIENT CITIES PROGRAM SAFE AND RESILIENT CITIES IN ETHIOPIA CityStrength Diagnostics in Nine Regional Capitals and Dire Dawa City Administration June 2017 This work is the product of a collaborative effort of the Government of Ethiopia including the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing, Ministry of Construction, and local governments of nine regional capitals and Dire Dawa City Administration, with contributions of staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Cover photo: heckepics © istock.com SAFE AND RESILIENT CITIES IN ETHIOPIA CityStrength Diagnostics in Nine Regional Capitals and Dire Dawa City Administration June 2017 Table of Contents Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv I. INVESTING IN URBAN RESILIENCE: FOR A SAFER AND PROSPEROUS ETHIOPIA . . . . . . . . . 1 1. THE CASE FOR INVESTING IN URBAN RESILIENCE IN ETHIOPIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.1. Understanding Urban Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.2. Why Invest in Urban Resilience in Ethiopia? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Urbanization Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Growing Impacts from Disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Urban Resilience is a Critical National Priority . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.3. Achieving Resilient Urban Development in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Report Structure and Next Chapters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.4. II. RESILIENCE CHALLENGES IN ETHIOPIAN CITIES : SHOCKS, STRESSES AND HAZARD PREPAREDNESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. RESILIENCE CHALLANGES IN ETHIOPIAN CITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1. Primary Shocks and Stresses in Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.2. Growing Hazard Exposure: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 River Flooding Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Seismic Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Landslide Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Volcanic Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Drought Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2.3. Unsafe Built Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.4. Limited Emergency Preparedness and Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Capacity to Implement National Policy and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Information to Identify and Assess Urban Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Early Warning Systems at the City Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Capacity for Emergency Fire Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Coordination with Industrial Parks and other Large Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 National Incident Management System and the Establishment of . Emergency Operations Centers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Public Emergency Awareness and Preparedness Programming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.5. Improving the Understanding of Hazards and Preparedness in Regional Capitals . . . 46 ii BOXES III. RESILIENCE CHALLENGES IN ETHIOPIAN CITIES: SECTORAL ASSESSMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3. Box RESILIENCE 1: TheCHALLENGES IN KEY SECTORS Purpose of Accredited Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Institutions 18 BoxI. Urban 2: Planning and Risk Management Box 2: Implementing Online Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . Permit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Administration in . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Planning 3.1. Urban Nairobi, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 and Housing Kenya 24 3.2. Box 3: Urban Finance Box . . . . . . . . . . Between . .Difference 3: The . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “Building . . . .“Building . . . . . . . . . . .and Standards” . . . . . . . . . Codes” . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 . . 27 3.3. Disaster Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 3.4. Environmental Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 FIGURES II. Services Figure 1: and Fire Infrastructure Mortality . . Cost . . . . . . . .of as a Function . . . . . of . . .Fire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 . . 6 3.5. Transport and Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Figure 2: Ethiopia Seismic Hazard: Peak Ground Acceleration 3.6. Water Supply (PGA), and with Sanitation Annual Probability . . . . . . . of . . .1/475 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 . . 8 3.7. Solid Waste Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Figure 3: Historic Seismic Events in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.8. Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Figure 4: Ethiopia 100 Year Flood Zones (blue) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 III. Community and Local Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Figure 5: Ethiopian Buildings (red) Within 100 Year Flood Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3.9. Local Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Figure 6: Ethiopian Buildings (red) Within 100 Year Flood Zones in 3.10. Community Development and Social Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Region near Addis Ababa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3.11. Improving Resilience Considerations at Local and Sectoral Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 IV. PRIORITY ACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 4. PRIORITY ACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS FOR URBAN RESILIENCE IN ETHIOPIA . . . . . . . . 99 TABLES 4.1. Effectively Manage Rapid Urban Growth in a Risk-Sensitive Table 1: Manner Focusing Workforce on the Most Formally Vulnerable Employed in the . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 . .Construction Actions and (2010, Sector Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2014) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 . . . 2 2: Better 4.2. Table Management Cost of Flooding of Fire Protection and Fire and Mortality . Water Scarcity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 . 6 Actions and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Table 3: Ethiopia Flood Losses, 1900-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.3. Improve Disaster Preparedness Including Fire Safety and Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Public Table 4: Actions andSector Building Investments . . . .Professionals . . . . . . . . . . . . .Salary . . . . . . Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 . 14 4.4. Table 5: Improve Building Minimum Regulatoryof Qualifications Frameworks Building Professionals to Mitigate Seismic (Engineers,Architects) . . Risk and . . . . . . 14 Enhance Overall Safety of the Built Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Table 6: Areas Exposed to Frequent Flooding in GAMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Actions and Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Table A1.1: Mapping Scheme for distribution (%) of structure type by land 4.5. Support the Key Sectoral Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Makingclass thefor Ethiopia . Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . for Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114 51 Looking Table A1.2: Forward: Ethiopia Investment Population Projectionsin Resilience (millions) for Thriving . . . . . . .Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 iii V. ANNEXES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Annex 1: List of Stakeholders from City Administrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Annex 2: Population Projection for Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Annex 3: City Profiles Shocks and Stresses in Regional Capitals and Dire Dawa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Annex 4: Quantifying Benefits from Investment in Urban Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Boxes Box ES1: Strengthening Urban Resilience Technical Assistance Program— Scope and Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv Box 1.2. Key Policies on Urban Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Box 2.1. Hazard Mapping for Ethiopian Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Box 2.2. Need for Accredited Training and Worker Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Box 2.3: Key Challenges Related to Quality Assurance Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Box 3.2. Stories of Innovation and Reflection in Urban Development and the Housing Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Box 3.3. Disaster Risk Management Pillars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Box 3.4. Water and Sanitation Challenges facing Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Box 4.1. National Urban Policy Think Tank for a Resilient Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Box 4.2. Flood Management as Part of a Holistic Approach to Informal Settlement Development in Indore, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Box 4.3. Integrated Urban Water Management in Teresina, Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Box 4.4. Improving Emergency Preparedness in the Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Box 4.5. An Example of City-level Emergency Management Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Box 4.6. A Safe and Resilient Cities Program in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Figures Figure 1.1. Population across Census Periods and Projections for 2016 in Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 1.2. Population Projections in Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 1.3. CityStrength Diagnostic Participating Regional Capital Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 1.4. CityStrength Diagnostic Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 2.1. River Flooding Hazard in Ethiopia as River Flooding Depth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 2.2. River Flooding Hazard in Central Ethiopia as River Flood Depth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Figure 2.3. Seismic Hazard (Peak Ground Acceleration) in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 iv Figure 2.4. Seismic Hazard (Peak Ground Acceleration) in Central Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Figure 2.5. Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Figure 2.6. Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 TABLES Figure 2.7. Volcanic Table 1: Hazard Top in Central Ten Most Ethiopia Devastating . . . . . . . . .since Disasters . . . . . 1983 . . . . . . . . 2016) . . . . . .(EMDAT, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 . . . . . 5 Figure 2.8. Holocene Volcanoes of Ethiopia and Surrounding Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Table 2: Populations affected by June 3, 2015 Flood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 2.9. Agricultural Drought Hazard in Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Table 3: Key Hazards in GAMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Figure 3.1. Five Key Qualities of Resilience: Robustness, Redundancy, Table Coordination, Reflection, 4: Distribution Spatial and . . . . . . in of Shocks Inclusiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MMDAs . . GAMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 . . . . 21 Table Figure 5: 3.2. MigrantSpatial Distribution Population of Stresses in Regional GAMA in 2007 Capitals, MMDAs (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . 21 Table Figure 6: of Exposed Areas 3.3. Proportion to Frequent Land Under Flooding in in Informal Settlement GAMA . . . . .Capitals, Regional . . . . . . . . . . . . .2015 . . . . . . . . . . . 56 (%) . . . . 24 Figure 3.4. Land-Use Table 7: Composition Fire in Regional Outbreak Hotspots . . . . . . . . % . . . . Capitals, . . .Total . . of Area . . . . . . . . . (2015) . . . . . . . . 57 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Figure 3.5. Length Table 8: of Total Areas of Roads Urban and Paved Roads Expansion (Km) . . . . . . . . . with Informality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 . . . . . . 29 Figure 3.6. Proportion of Paved Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Table 9: Congestion Hotspots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Figure 3.7. Improved Water Supply Coverage (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Table 10: Projects and Programs—Urban Management and Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Figure 3.8. Types of Toilet Facilities in Regional Capitals in 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Table 11: Projects and Programs—Disaster Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Figure 3.9. Solid Waste Collection Rates in Regional Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Table 12: Projects and Programs—Urban Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Figure 3.10. Household Electricity Connection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Table 13: Projects and Programs—Transport and Road Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Figure 3.11. Employment Composition in Regional Capitals (2014). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 3.12. 14: Table Figure Sector Investments—Urban Unemployment Rate in Regional Capitals Water: (2012–2025) .(%) (2009 and . .2014). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 . . . . . . 54 3.13. 15: Table Figure Projects Proportion and Programs—Water of Informal and Jobs in Regional Sanitation . Capitals . . . . . . and (%) (2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 . . . . 2014). . . . . 54 Figure 3.14.16: Table People Below theCoverage, LivingCollection Waste Poverty line by in Regional . . . Capitals MMDA . . . . . . . . . .(%) . . . (2005 . . . . 2011) . . . . . . and . . . . . . . . . 92 . . . . 58 Figure 4.1. Benefits Table 17: and Results Details of 40 of a DRM Oversight Prioritized Drains in Unit GAMA and . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 a Comprehensive DRM strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Table 18: Ongoing/Planned Projects and Programs—Social Protection Sector . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Table 19: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Priorities, and Implementation Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 v vi Photo: DavorLovincic © iStock.com Acknowledgements The World Bank team would like to Obom Ojullu (Former Mayor of Gambella City acknowledge the Government of Ethiopia for Administration); W/ro Shukria Ahmed (City the strong leadership and support in carrying Manager, Harar Municipality); Ato Tewodros out CityStrength Diagnostics exercise as a Gebiba (Mayor, Hawassa City Administration); part of the Strengthening Urban Resilience Ato Ahmed Mohamoud (Former Mayor, Jigjiga Technical Assistance (TA), especially H.E. Dr. City Administration); Ato Daniel Assefa, (Mayor of Ambachew Mekonnen (Minister, Ministry Mekelle City Administration); Ato Yasin Mohamed of Urban Development and Housing); H.E. Umer (Mayor, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ato Mekuria Haile (Former Minister, Ministry W/ro Adanch Abebe (Current Mayor of Adama of Urban Development and Housing); H.E City Administration); and Ato Ayenew Belay Engineer Aisha Mohamed (Minister, Ministry (Current Mayor of Bahir Dar City Administration). of Construction); H.E. Demisse Shitto (State The government focal points provided excellent Minister, Ministry of Urban Development and guidance and oversight. Special thanks to: Ato Housing); H.E. Ato Gebremeskel Challa (State Yitbarek Mengiste (Head of Advisory Team, Minister, Ministry of Construction); H.E Ato Ministry of Urban Development and Housing); Kalid Abdurahman (State Minister, Ministry of Ms. Desta Shewamolla (Bureau Head, Ministry Construction); H.E. Ato Deriba Kuma (Mayor, of Construction); Ato Sebsibe Yilam (Director, Addis Ababa City Administration); Ato Mitiku Ministry of Construction); Ato Wubshet Mekbib Kassa, (Commissioner, National Disaster Risk (Director, Ministry of Construction); Ato Management Commission); and Ato. Fisseha Sintayehu Gizie, (Senior Expert, National Disaster Aberra (Director, Ministry of Finance and Risk Management Commission); Ato Mesfin Dabi Economic Cooperation). (Energy Analyst, Ministry of Water, Irrigation The team extends its gratitude to key and Electricity); Ato Yibeltal Yeshaneh (Head, stakeholders from the ten participating cities: Housing Office, Bahir Dar City Administration); Ato Habtamu Hailemichael (Former Mayor, Ato Senay Abisa (Head, Urban Development, Adama City Administration); Ato Laeke Ayalew Mekelle City Administration); Ato Fida Workineh (Former Mayor, Bahir Dar City Administration); (Expert DRM Office, Assosa City Administration); Ato Ibrahim Ousman (Mayor, Dire Dawa City Ato Mebrate Melese (Vice Manager of Municipality Administration) for hosting the three regional and Urban Infrastructure and Greenery workshops and for the courtesy and hospitality Development Coordinator, Hawassa City extended to the team. We would also like to Administration); Ato Hussen Yimer (Head, Urban thank Ato Tewfik Abdulkayoum (Mayor, Assosa Development and Housing Office, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ato Akane Opada (Mayor City Administration); Ato Abera Sori (Urban of Gambella City Administration) and Ato Development Office, Adama City Administration); vii Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Ato Simon Tiach, (City Manager, Gambella City Resources, Irrigation & Electricity); and Ato Administration); Ato Gebeyehu Tilahun (Mayor Feleke Jember Kassa (Director, Social Welfare Office Chief, Dire Dawa City Administration); Development Promotion Directorate, Ministry of Ato Niman Umar (Infrastructure/Technical Labour and Social Affairs). Department, Jigjiga City Administration); and Ato Mirwan Adem (Head, Planning Department, The team would like to thank private sector Harar Municipality). partners, academia and donor representatives for the support and continued engagement, We also express our sincere gratitude including: Ato Dawit Banti ( Chair Holder, and appreciation to all the national-level Architectural Design and Building Sciences stakeholders for the guidance, including: Ato Chair, EiABC); Ato Berehanu Gebretensay, (Chair Getachew Golem, (Resources Mobilization Holder, Urban and Regional Planning Chair, Expert, Ministry of Finance and Economic EiABC); Dr. Kumilachew Yeshitilla (Associate Cooperation); Ato Amlaku Adamu (Head, Urban Professor and Coordinator of Water Resilience Revenue Enhancement, Fund Mobilization and and Green Cities in Africa Project, EiABC); Dr. Finance Bureau, Ministry of Urban Development Ephrem Gebremariam (Scientific Director, and Housing); Ato Tumezghi Berehe, (Bureau EiABC); Dr. Elias Lewi (Associate Professor, Head, Ministry of Urban Development and Geophysics Department, AAU); Dr. Atalay Ayele Housing); Ms. Selamawit Alem (Bureau Head, (Head of Geophysics Department, and Regional Ministry of Urban Development and Housing); Operations Manager, Sub-Saharan Africa GEM Ato Muluneh Wolemariam (Director, National Foundation, AAU); Dr. Eng. Wubishet Jekale Disaster Risk Management Commission); Ato (Professor, AAU); Ato Kassahun Assefa (Manager Tadese Bekele (Advisor to the Commissioner of Ethiopian Fire Security PLC); Ato Dejen of National Disaster Risk Management Zewdu (Program Coordinator, Ethiopian Red Commission); Ato Tefera Beyene (Advisor to the Cross Society); and Ato Kasahun Habtemariam Minister, Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation (Disaster Preparedness and Response & Electricity; Ms. Semunesh Golla (Bureau Head, Coordinator, Red Cross Society). Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation & Electricity); Ato Tesfaye Tadese (Bureau Head, For the World Bank, this Technical Assistance Ground Water, Ministry of Water Resources, was led by Asmita Tiwari (Sr. Urban and Disaster Irrigation & Electricity); Ato Asmamaw Kume Risk Management Specialist) and Abebaw (Bureau Head, Basin Development, Ministry of Alemayehu (Sr. Urban Development Specialist) Water Resources, Irrigation & Electricity); Ato along with Maria Angelica Sotomayor (former Yohannes Zerihun (ECO-hydrology Coordinator, Lead Economist and CityStrength Diagnostics River Basin Development, Ministry of Water Coordinator), and included Dinkneh Tefera Resources, Irrigation & Electricity); Ato Abiy (Urban Development Specialist); Fernando Fesseha Tekeze (Project Livestock Coordinator, Armendaris (Consultant), and Tassew Bekele River Basin Development, Ministry of Water (Consultant). Following sector specialists viii Acknowledgements contributed to various assessments carried The Bank team benefitted greatly from support out under the exercise: Kanta Rigaud ( Lead and guidance from Bernice Van Bronkhorst Environment Specialist); Abdu Muwonge (Sr. (Practice Manager, Urban Development and Urban Development Specialist); Issa Diaw Disaster Risk Management in the Africa Region); (Sr. Energy Specialist); Asferachew Abate Carolyn Turk (Country Director, Ethiopia); Abebe (Sr. Environmental Specialist); Gulilat Qaiser M. Khan (Program Leader, Ethiopia Birhane Eshetu (Sr. Water and Sanitation Specialist); Toshihiro Sonoda (Sr. Disaster Risk Country Office); Sameh Wahba (Director, Social, Management Specialist); Abebe Zerihun (Sr. Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice); Operations Officer); Roger Gorham (Transport Andrew Goodland (Program Leader, Ethiopia Economist); Sheila Kamunyori (Urban Specialist); Country Office); Idrissa Dia (Former Practice Alemseged W Yohannes Bedane (Consultant); Manager, Urban Development and Disaster Risk Dr. Tegegne GebreEgziabher (Consultant); Management in the Africa Region) and Francis David John Lerpiniere (Consultant), Yusuf Haji Ghesquiere (Manager, Global Facility for Disaster Ali Abdurahman (Consultant), Berhanu Kassa Reduction and Recovery, GFDRR). The team Woldemichael (Consultant), Ato Fikre Mengiste also benefitted from guidance provided by peer (DRM Specialist); Wondosen Feleke (Operations reviewers: Alejandro Espinosa-Wang (Private Officer); and Mareile Drechsler (Consultant). Thomas Moullier (Sr. Urban Development Sector Development Specialist); Josef Leitmann Specialist) led and contributed to the review of (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist, the building regulatory framework along with GFDRR); Keiko Saito (Disaster Risk Management Christopher J. Chung (Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR); and Yoonhee Kim (Senior Specialist); Donald Bliss (Senior Consultant), and Urban Economist). Charles Scawthorn (Senior Consultant). Sophia Craig (Consultant) contributed to the review of The World Bank, Ministry of Urban Development emergency response assessments in urban areas; and Housing, Ministry of Construction and Stuart Fraser (Consultant) contributed to hazard National Disaster Risk Management Commission mapping assessment along with Andrew Norris extend their gratitude and appreciation to (consultant); and Dr. Tegegne GebreEgziabher the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and (Consultant) contributed to CityStrength pre- Recovery (GFDRR) for financial contributions diagnostic report and city profiles. The team towards this exercise, and to the many also benefitted from the guidance and timely stakeholders who in diverse ways contributed to administrative and logistics support throughout the development of this report. Special thanks the exercise from Assegedetch Legesse Demissie, Ejigayehu Teka Habte, Nunush Elias, and in particular to all the participants from city Chalida Chararnsuk as well as Gelila Woodeneh administrations for their high level participation (Sr. Communications Officer); and Sonu Jain and support (See Annex 1 for names of all (communication Officer). participants from city administrations). ix Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Foreword Through ongoing efforts across the country, Ethiopia continues to experience economic growth that puts it on track to become a middle-income country by 2025. Part of the economic growth has been the result of the urbanization process observed across the country. Ethiopians are moving to cities where there is a concentration of economic activities, provision of basic services, and other factors that contribute to a higher quality of life. Current urban growth rates are among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, indicating that the country will see even more people migrating to and living in urban areas in the coming years. While Addis Ababa continues to be the dominant urban center of the country, it is the small- and medium-sized cities that are witnessing the highest levels of urban growth. Keeping up with this growth has led to many challenges, however, to provide infrastructure, urban services, and employment to all citizens. Many Ethiopian cities are vulnerable to shocks such as flooding, fire, and earthquakes that can disrupt cities and undermine development gains. For example, in April 2016, a rainstorm caused serious infrastructure damage in Dire Dawa city, which is regularly exposed to flooding. In Addis Ababa, in 2012 a fire in a five-story building in Efoyta Market caused damages amounting to ETB 20 million (US$1 million). All regional capitals have experienced deadly floods that have also led to casualties and left expensive reconstruction needs. Climate change is likely to make future shocks more intense and frequent. To achieve Ethiopia’s national goals, improve overall economic growth, and lift people out of poverty, it will be necessary to build cities that are resilient to a wide variety of shocks. Cities need to be able to operate and provide for the people who live there, under all conditions. This entails a well-functioning x city that features aspects such as access to safe housing, adequate provision of basic services, and enforcement of building regulations to foster a safe built environment. The Government of Ethiopia is committed to the resilience agenda recognizing that the time to take action is now, while cities are still in the early stages of urbanization. Without proactive measures, the cost of taking retroactive actions in the future will divert key funding from the advancement of development goals. The Government is already taking steps to realize its urban development vision to “Create resilient and livable cities”. The National Urban Development Spatial Plan (NUDSP) and the Ethiopian Cities Sustainable Prosperity Goals (ECSPGs) recognize resilience as a key pillar for development of Ethiopian cities. Recognizing the need to identify concrete priority actions and investments, with the help from the World Bank, the Government has initiated a strong engagement process with stakeholders from all nine regional capitals and the Dire Dawa city administration. The purpose of the engagement is to raise awareness on the importance of integrating resilience-building measures in all planning and implementation efforts. Furthermore, a collective strategy for resilient cities was laid out based on recurrent shocks and stresses that threaten the long-term viability and vibrancy of Ethiopia’s urban environments. H.E Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen Minister, Ministry of Urban Development and Housing xi Photo: Guliat Birhane Eshetu © World Bank Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Acronyms AAL Average Annual Loss CA City Administration CCCs Community Care Coalitions CSA Central Statistical Agency DHS Demographic and Health Study DRM Disaster Risk Management DRMFSS Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector DRM-SPIF Disaster Risk Management Strategic Program and Investment Framework EBCS Ethiopian Building Code ECPI Ethiopian Cities Prosperity Initiative ECSPG Ethiopian Cities Sustainable Prosperity Goals EEA Ethiopian Electricity Agency EEP Ethiopian Electric Power EEPCo Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EEU Ethiopian Electric Utility EIA Environmental Impact Assessments ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment EOC Emergency Operations Centers EPA Environmental Protection Authority ERD Earthquake Resistant Damage ETC Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation FEPRA Fire and Emergency Prevention and Rescue Agency FRTA Federal Road Transport Authority GDP Gross Domestic Product GoE Government of Ethiopia GTP Growth and Transformation Plan ICPS International Center for Prison Studies ICT Information and Communications Technology IDA International Development Agency IDPs Integrated Development Plans IHDP Integrated Housing Development Program ISWM Integrated solid waste management IT Information Technology xii IUWM Integrated Urban Water Management MDG Millennium Development Goals MoC Ministry of Construction MOFEC Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation MoUDH Ministry of Urban Development and Housing MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity MoWR Ministry of Water Resources MSEs Micro- and Small Enterprises NDRMC National Disaster Risk Management Commission NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NBC National Building Code NIMS National Incident Management System NRW Non-Revenue Water NUDSP National Urban Development Spatial Plan ODI Overseas Development Institute PET Polyethylene Terephthalate PPE Personal Preparedness Equipment RB Regional Bureaus R&D Research and Development RSDP Road Sector Development Program RVS Rapid Visual Screening SECR State of Ethiopian Cities Report SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region SOP Standard Operating Procedure SWM Solid Waste Management TA Technical Assistance UAP Universal Access Plan ULGDP Urban Local Government Development Program ULGs Urban Local Governments USAID United States Agency for International Development USAR Urban Search and Rescue URRAP Universal Rural Roads Access Program xiii Executive Summary I. Overview: Urban Resilience is land-use planning, coordination of services, and a Critical National Priority mobilization of financing for infrastructure pose major constraints to healthy urbanization and Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing urban will compound Ethiopia’s continued exposure to populations in the world—projected to nearly shocks and stresses. triple from 15 million in 2012 to 42 million in 2034, an average annual growth rate of 5.4 Together, these risks increase cities’ vulnerability percent.1 Cities are engines of economic growth to disasters such as floods, fire, and earthquakes, and already play an important role in Ethiopia’s with potentially devastating effects on Ethiopia’s economy, contributing 38 percent of gross economic performance and its poverty- domestic product (GDP) while employing only alleviation agenda. Without systems and services 15 percent of the total workforce.2 Urbanization for resilience, disasters can push vulnerable combined with significant economic and social people into—or further into—poverty. Recurrent transformation over the past decade has the shocks can undermine past gains and hamper potential to shift the structure and location of future economic growth, leading to a pernicious economic activity from rural agriculture to larger “poverty trap” for many of the urban poor.4 In and more diversified urban industrial and service response to recurrent droughts, Ethiopia has sectors. developed a commendable national Disaster Risk Management (DRM) system with effective With rapid growth comes a significant amount early warning and response mechanisms. Urban of new construction, much of which will occur areas, however have not benefitted from this in cities with limited capacity to ensure the national system, as the focus has been largely on structures in which people live, work and gather rural food security and drought mitigation. are safely built. During this time of transition to an emerging economy, when significant If managed proactively, urban population investments in infrastructure are made and growth presents an enormous opportunity resources are committed for years to come, to foster economic growth and support the it is critical for Ethiopia to steer settlement Government of Ethiopia’s vision to reach growth and construction toward safe areas middle-income status by 2025.5 Timely and and ensure the construction of safe buildings effective interventions now to promote resilience and infrastructure. Ethiopian cities are already can have significant positive impacts on the struggling with access to jobs, infrastructure, long-term safety, productivity, and smooth services, and housing.3 Rapid urbanization will functioning of the urban built environment. lead to greater concentrations of people, assets, These interventions can reduce the impact of and infrastructure, thus increasing exposure floods, fire, and landslides—which disrupt a city’s to shocks and stresses. Limited capacity for fabric and the lives and livelihoods of the people ¹ World Bank Group (2015). Ethiopia Urbanization Review: Urban Institutions for a Middle-Income Ethiopia. ² Ibid ³ Ibid. ⁴ Hallegatte et al, 2017. Shock waves: managing the impacts of climate change on poverty. ⁵ World Bank, 2013. Ethiopia Economic Update II (Washington, DC). xiv who live there. Socio-economic stresses—such resilience in Ethiopian cities will require better as unemployment, air and water pollution, lack understanding of risks, and incorporating of housing, or lack of public services—can have resilience into land use planning and the same impacts unless actions are taken to development, undertaking measures to improve urban resilience. mitigate risk through disaster and climate risk management, and improving regulatory Resilience is the capacity of a city to provide decisions and emergency preparedness. services, adapt and grow, despite chronic Box 1 presents the participatory technical stresses and acute shocks that may threaten assistance employed to identify key priorities for its collective viability.6 Strengthening urban urban resilience in Ethiopia. BOX ES1 Strengthening Urban Resilience Technical Assistance Program—Scope and Stakeholders This report is an outcome of a Technical Assistance program supported by the World Bank to help the Government of Ethiopia identify actions to foster resilience in nine regional capitals and one city administration: Adama, Assosa, Bahir Dar, Gambella, Harar, Hawassa, Jigjiga, Mekelle, and Semera- Logia, and Dire Dawa City Administration. The program was led by the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing (MoUDH) along with the Ministry of Construction (MoC), National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC), Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation (MoFEC), Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation & Electricity (MWRIE), and Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (MoLSA) as well as numerous national, regional, and local government entities, local universities, civil society organizations, development partners, residents, and the private sector. The program was conducted between 2015 and 2017, primarily using City Strength diagnostic methodology to facilitate dialogue among stakeholders. Three additional assessments were undertaken to add technical rigor to the assessment: (i) Hazard mapping: to identify cities’ exposure to seismic, volcanic, flooding, drought, and landslide hazards; (ii) A review of the national legal framework on building regulations for resilient buildings: to identify recommendations for improving national policies on the construction of safe buildings and infrastructure; and (iii) A review of emergency response and management requirements for urban areas: to assess cities’ capacity for emergency preparedness and response. The City Strength diagnostic focused on ten sectors, reflecting key pillars of the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing’s strategy (Ethiopian Cities Prosperity Initiative-2014). These include: Urban Planning and Housing; Urban Finance; Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change; Environmental Management; Transport and Roads; Water Supply and Sanitation; Solid Waste Management; Energy; Local Economic Development; and Community Development and Social Protection. The process consisted of data collection; field visits, and consultation workshops. Facilitated by a multi-sectoral team from the Word Bank, city stakeholders identified key shocks and stresses in the ten Ethiopian cities as well as key actions to address them. World Bank, 2015. CityStrength Diagnostic Methodological Guidebook 6 xv Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Investing in the resilience of cites and their Framework of Ethiopia, given its importance to systems—with forward-thinking and integrated achieve the World Bank’s twin goals of reducing planning, robust infrastructure development, poverty and increasing shared prosperity. disaster risk management and prevention—can reduce long-term costs otherwise required II. Key Findings: Business-as- to retrofit services for poorly planned and usual increases impacts of overcrowded urban areas. For example, shocks and stresses improved fire protection would save thousands of lives each year, and improved flood Shocks and stresses are disruptions that can management and compliance with building code threaten the viability of a city’s infrastructure, seismic standards could reduce annual economic systems and services, and safety. These losses by tens of millions of dollars. disruptions are likely to increase with exposure to the impacts of climate change (Hallegatte Increasing investment in resilience supports the et al, 2016). Shocks are sudden events that strategic and long-term national priorities of have immediate impacts, such as fires, floods, the Government of Ethiopia. The Government’s earthquakes, outbreaks of conflict, terrorist Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) attacks, and severe economic volatility (2014/15–2020) emphasizes the fundamental (World Bank, 2015a). Stresses are longer-term importance of building green, resilient, and trends, often man-made, that undermine the well-governed cities to achieving its vision performance of a community or nation and of reaching middle-income country status. increase the vulnerability of stakeholders. These The Ethiopian Cities Prosperity Initiative can include degradation of natural resources, 2014, which builds on the GTP, focuses on loss of agricultural production, demographic Inclusive and Safer Cities Development as a changes, climate change, political instability, key strategic pillar. Complementing Ethiopia’s unemployment, informality, and long-term urban development policies, the Government economic decline (DfID, 2011). Stresses can has developed policies to systematically be cumulative, compounding gradually until a manage its disaster risks, thereby also tipping point is reached, at which stage they can enhancing urban resilience. These include the develop into a sudden shock. National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk All capital cities and Dire Dawa face flooding Management (NPDRM, 2013), recognizing the and fire. Five regional capitals are at risk from need to strengthen urban resilience, in light earthquakes but lack preparations for a seismic of the growing risks of fire and other hazards event. Landslides, drought, heavy rainstorms, associated with rapid urbanization, and the high wind, and diseases are additional shocks Disaster Risk Management Strategic Programme faced by at least one of the 10 cities in the and Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF). assessment. Examples of such shocks are Ethiopia’s Climate Change National Adaptation numerous.7 In April 2016, a rainstorm caused Programme of Action (NAPA) further contributes serious infrastructure damage in Dire Dawa;8 the to the enhancement of urban resilience. Climate city already faced floods in 1984 killing 42 people and disaster resilient development is also a and in 2006 killing 256. In Jigjiga in 2016, 23 focus of the World Bank’s Country Partnership people were killed and 84 more people injured ⁷ Note: Information from stakeholders who participated in the CityStrength workshops ⁸ http://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-dire-dawa-floods-ocha-situation-report-no-1 xvi Executive Summary due to floods.9 In January 2016, a 4.3 magnitude and climate risks. All cities need dedicated earthquake hit Hawassa,10 causing panic among support for their planning efforts. Although every residents and university students. city has prepared master or structural plans, implementing the plans remains a challenge A principal stress facing all of the cities in given financial and technical capacity constraints Ethiopia is rapid growth in population and and minimal interjurisdictional coordination. urban sprawl, due to the pressures it places on city systems and the delivery of basic services. Managing flooding and water scarcity: The Primary among these pressures are shortages 10 regional capitals face growing impacts of housing, water, and sanitation; informal from flooding, even as a majority also face settlements; unemployment; transportation severe water scarcity. With climate change, the constraints; and insecurity of energy and frequency and intensity of flooding and water public services.11 All are exacerbated by rapid scarcity will increase if long-term preventive population growth, which is projected to triple actions are not taken. The current piecemeal by 2037 (World Bank, 2015b). approach of relying on structural measures (primarily retention walls or drainage channels) In short, the capital cities urgently need and/or relocating at-risk populations does not support and investment to manage already provide effective and long-term flood-mitigation severe shocks and stresses that are only likely solutions. to increase with exposure to climate change impacts. The main challenges facing the cities Disaster preparedness: The regional capitals include are presented below. do not have any dedicated budget or staff to plan, mainstream, and implement disaster Managing urban growth: Adama, Bahir Dar, and climate risk management actions; neither Dire Dawa, Hawassa and Mekelle will likely house is there contingency financing. The cities do nearly 1 million people each in the coming 20 not provide flood warnings or earthquake, years, almost doubling each city’s population.12 landslide, or volcano alerts, and no contingency Assosa, Gambella, Harar, Jigjiga and Semera- plans are in place to prepare communities for Logia will comparably house fewer people but disasters. Cities also lack adequate equipment are witnessing much higher population growth and resources to respond to fires or take fire rate. Urban spraw (built up areas) in Assosa, safety measures, especially in tall buildings Jigjiga and Gambella have noted even more and informal markets. With growth in city dramatic change with twenty, seventeen and populations, higher fire-related mortality is thirteen-fold increase.13 In particular, the cities expected, which is already close to 20 times the must proactively manage informal settlements rate in middle- and high-income countries.14 and avoid obstructions to the natural drainage Improvements are needed not only for systems. This work requires proactive, overall safety, but also to enhance each city’s coordinated, and integrated planning and competitiveness and its potential to attract and implementation, taking into account disaster retain new investments. ⁹ https://www.diretube.com/articles/the-jigjiga-flood-killed-28-peoples-in-ethiopia_12110.html 10 http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/environment/item/696-hawassa-hit-by-4-3-magnitude-earthquake 11 CityStrength workshops 12 Based on the Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and World Bank estimates. 13 Based on CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data 14 Based on Building Regulatory Review study. Ethiopia is effectively spending roughly 1.5 percent less on fire protection features in buildings than middle and high-income countries (as a fraction of total building cost) and suffering close to 20 times the mortality, which currently totals close to 12,000 deaths per year. xvii Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Building regulatory framework: The regional Better transport and roads are needed for capitals are witnessing rapid growth in new daily economic activities but also to ensure construction but have limited capacity to ensure timely response to emergencies in at-risk that the new and existing structures are safely areas of the cities (such as informal markets). built to withstand earthquake, flooding, and Rehabilitation of energy networks is needed fire, and avoid spontaneous collapse and other to avoid fires caused by faulty wiring, as well harmful conditions. Building regulatory review as to ensure a 24-hour network for efficient assessments found four key challenges that functioning of hospitals, schools, businesses, hamper the resilience of the built environment: and offices. Above all, improvements in urban (i) limited human and technical capacity as finance are needed not only to ensure adequate regional and municipal building agencies are resources for infrastructure and services but increasingly overwhelmed by the influx of also the availability of contingency funds during building permit applications and the growing emergencies. complexity of building projects; (ii) limited effectiveness of quality assurance mechanisms III. Investing in Urban Resilience and information on hazard risks; (iii) lack of for Safety, Inclusiveness, and implementation of new building standards; and Economic Growth (iv) larger institutional and structural factors such The findings from this study strongly support as improving safety in informal construction. investment in urban resilience, with tangible Improvements in planning, building inspection, benefits in three key areas: and regulations can have significant impacts on the long-term safety, productivity, and resilience (i) Safety: Even with limited data on past of the urban built environment. disasters, the assessment shows large benefits from improved disaster preparedness:15 Key sectoral priorities: Sectoral assessments carried out during this analysis revealed that (a) Improved fire protection would resilience can be improved through several steps effectively save 2,900 lives per year, to ensure robust functioning of the key sectors. equivalent to 160,000 lives saved in the next Common challenges include limited intersectoral 34 years; and interjurisdictional coordination, lack of (b) Compliance with the seismic provisions systematic and integrated data collection and of the building code would reduce the management, and relatively weak technical average annual loss by 30 percent by 2050, and financial capacity to plan, implement from US$128 million to US$90 million; and and monitor actions. Each of these challenges affect cities’ overall resilience and need to be (c) Improved flood management practices addressed urgently. would reduce the average annual loss to about US$93 million, a net annual reduction For example, inadequate solid waste of about US$230 million each year. management impairs urban drainage systems, increases flooding risk, and increases the (ii) Inclusiveness: Investment in urban likelihood of disease outbreaks. Water supply resilience will protect Ethiopia’s hard-won and sanitation remain critical because water development gains and ensure inclusiveness scarcity can jeopardize cities’ functioning. in their benefits. Without systems and services 15 Based on assessment conducted as a part of Building Regulatory Review assessment (WB,2016) xviii Executive Summary for resilience, disasters and recurrent shocks I. Effectively manage rapid urban growth can push vulnerable people into—or further in a risk-sensitive manner focusing on the into—poverty (Hallegatte, Stephane et al., most vulnerable populations: To manage 2017). According to the Overseas Development rapid and unprecedented urban growth in the Institute, by 2030 an estimated 20 million regional capitals, integrated, coordinated, and extremely poor dwellers (living on less than risk-sensitive urban planning is recommended, US$1.25 per day) are likely to be exposed followed by adequate implementation and to multiple hazards in Ethiopia, such as monitoring processes. Most importantly, support drought, flooding, and landslides (ODI, 2013). for the most vulnerable groups is needed to Improved fire and flood preparedness activities promote inclusive and resilient urban growth. will improve resilience of most vulnerable population, and save long term development 1. Develop integrated, coordinated, and gains. risk-sensitive urban master planning, implementation, and monitoring processes: (iii) Economic growth: The benefits of Improving risk-informed planning will require investment in resilience can be measured following key actions: (i) identifying, mapping, not only in terms of lives saved and damages and incorporating hazard risk factors into averted but also in terms of economic growth land-use and structural plans; (ii) establishing from infrastructure built or enhanced, services a taskforce to facilitate coordination during the delivered, and the increased supply of planning and implementation and developing developable land (for example prime city land a guidance note on incorporating risk located in areas at high-risk of disasters such information into planning and infrastructure as flooding). City land values increase with development; (iii) improving stakeholder infrastructure investments providing protection consultations in all planning actions; and (iv) from disasters. Improved disaster warning and developing a central information system on emergency response services will improve the planning and risk data to inform planning, competitiveness of Ethiopia’s cities, including implementation and monitoring urban their ability to attract and sustain foreign development activities. investment. This is especially true for cities like Hawassa which are setting up industrial parks 2. Resolve housing crisis and support but are at a risk of earthquake.16 the most vulnerable: This will require: (i) strengthening the rental market in cities by encouraging owners to rent their units, and IV. Recommendations: incentivizing property developers to construct Resilience Priorities for rental units; (ii) Increasing access to land Ethiopian Cities to build housing, and ensuring hazard and Five key priority areas were identified to climate change considerations as well as enhance resilience in the regional capitals, overall accessibility during any emergency; and based on the needs identified by the cities as (iii) taking an integrated and comprehensive well as sectoral assessments. Recommended development approach towards improving actions and investments, and their timeline for living conditions of existing housing units by implementation are presented here. Table ES.1 upgrading in kebele housing and informal summarizes the main policy recommendations settlements. and implementation responsibilities. Based on hazard mapping conducted using hazard data from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Innovation Labs’ 16 National Multi-Hazard Risk Profiles, developed as part of the ACP-EU program, “Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa. xix Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia II. Better manage flooding and water supervise needed studies to identify improved scarcity: Better managing water extremes policy and practice, with detailed actions in cities will require an integrated approach required at national, regional and local levels. to improving integrated urban watershed management and resolving water scarcity. III. Improve disaster preparedness, including fire safety and response: Improving climate 3. Plan and implement integrated flood and disaster risk management will require risk management in all regional capitals: establishing a climate and DRM unit and Integrated watershed-level planning and operations center, improving urban disaster risk implementation are needed, taking into information system, and improving local fire and account the future exposure to hazards rescue capacity: by a growing population. This includes (i) improvement in drainage systems based on 5. Establish urban Disaster Risk watershed-level planning for future population Management institutional framework: and hazard exposure; (ii) improved liquid Following the new national DRM policy, and solid waste management, including extend the existing national and regional DRM addressing water pollution; (iii) encouraging structure to the cities with dedicated staff urban watershed management, including and budget within city administrations. The upstream runoff; and (iv) improving green urban DRM unit will be in charge of developing and recreational areas that can enhance a DRM strategy, including: (i) securing early water absorption, recharge groundwater warning on flooding, drought, and high winds, aquifers, and serve as buffer zones to prevent and alerts for earthquakes and landslides; (ii) encroachment on flood-prone areas. For cities ensuring community disaster preparedness; that are highly exposed to flooding such as Dire (iii) developing contingency planning and Dawa, it will be critical prioritize investing in budgeting; and (iv) exploring risk financing and implementing and monitoring integrated flood insurance options. risk management plans. 6. Improve urban disaster data collection, To better prepare for potential future flooding, risk assessment, and information sharing: the cities need to establish or build on existing Understanding what and where potential flood warning systems, linking them with the risks from urban disasters are, it’s necessary National Meteorological Agency, the National to allocate resources rationally. This requires DRM Commission, and Regional Bureaus. Flood the generation and analysis of hazard and risk preparedness plans need to be developed as a information, building on woreda risk profiles part of city-level contingency plans and linked and improving seismic and flood hazard with community preparedness activities. monitoring instruments and stations. At the national level, this information system can be 4. Resolve water scarcity: To meet the housed in the Ministry of Urban Development fast-growing demand for water resources, and Housing, linked to the National DRM it is important to take actions that focus on Commission and other relevant ministries increasing efficiency in service provision such as Ministry of Construction. The same and groundwater recharge while identifying information system will need to be extended alternative sources. It is recommended to at regional and local government levels. A establish a national taskforce to address this joint task force between the Ministry of Urban challenge and which can commission and Development and Housing and the National xx Executive Summary DRM Commission can identify next steps comprehensive structural analysis to define to improve risk information collection and priority structures to be retrofitted (with sharing, and coordination on DRM actions. associated cost); and (b) later establishing a funding facility for building retrofits. Based 7. Improve fire and rescue response capacity upon initial findings from the RVS, a more in- by providing financial and technical depth comprehensive structural assessment support to fire services: A detailed needs needs to be carried out. The outcome of this assessment of the fire support services in all activity will be a prioritized investment plan for cities will identify the specific training and structural retrofits, to be financed with either equipment needed to improve response government, development partner and/or capacity for densely populated buildings and multilateral development finance. neighborhoods. An investment program will assist in providing mobile firefighting units and 9. Establish quality enhancement review search and rescue equipment appropriate for and regulatory processes at national and city responses to fire incidents. local levels: To improve the capacity for IV. Improve the building regulatory building and planning departments, design framework to mitigate seismic risk professionals, and construction workers to and enhance overall safety of the built build safe buildings that can withstand the environment: Investing in an improved impact of disasters, the following actions building regulatory framework begins with a are proposed: (a) carry out a preliminary building assessment that includes a rapid visual detailed process mapping and re-engineering survey and a more in-depth comprehensive of administrative procedures to determine structural assessment to identify public appropriate technology and scope of structures susceptible to chronic risk (e.g., modernization; (b) carry out a training fire and structural collapse) and disasters. needs assessment at the national level, and This assessment should produce a prioritized to train building inspectors and building investment plan for structural retrofits, to be code officials; (c) conduct a comprehensive financed by government, development partners, capacity needs assessment of building and/or multilateral development finance. The professional associations and academia, second critical initiative is to establish quality- to deliver needed training programs for enhancement review and regulatory processes engineers, architects, tradesmen and at the national and local levels. This includes vocational workers; (d) update current developing capacity for building and planning Standard Operating Procedures to include departments, design professionals, and performance-based review and inspection construction workers. of plans and structures; and (e) conduct a comprehensive needs assessment of testing 8. Reduce risk in the existing built facilities for soils and construction materials. environment: The proposed activities address the urgent need to reduce high risk situations V. Support key sectoral priorities: To improve that currently exist in the built environment. inter-sectoral coordination, data collection This includes: (a) funding Rapid Visual and management, and technical and financial Screening (RVS) to assess schools, hospitals capacity, an inter-sectoral committee can and critical public structures. The rapid review review current coordination mechanisms and will provide the basis for conducting a more suggest improvements, especially with regard xxi Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia to developing integrated and resilient urban V. Looking Ahead development and capital improvement plans. A national think tank can potentially support Achieving resilience in Ethiopia’s rapidly growing regional capitals and secondary cities to improve cities will require sustained leadership and overall technical capacity. capacity enhancement at all levels, along with access to finance, incentives for local leaders, 10. Support key sectoral investment and greater advocacy and awareness. Improved priorities: As a part of the integrated and coordination and capacity building at all resilient urban development plan, investments levels will be critical. To maintain momentum, in the following key sectoral priorities government staff, local leaders, civil society, and are proposed for all cities: (i) Solid waste local universities need to be fully engaged in the management (SWM): Improve SWM collection tasks ahead—and supported with appropriate services primarily for communities exposed to incentives. National, regional, and local flooding; ensure appropriate disposal of solid advocacy on behalf of preparedness for shocks waste by developing appropriate disposal and stresses will require incorporating resilience- sites; and develop integrated SWM plans for based lessons into school curriculum and drills, each city, taking into consideration future and citizen education through media and other needs; (ii) Water supply and sanitation: To sources. Finally, and most importantly, it will be improve water security, improve the quality of critical to access finance for investing in urban services and capacity of water utilities, making resilience. the sector more inclusive, reliable, and robust. Special attention should be given to conserving Meeting the challenges of urbanization is a water sources, avoiding overexploitation, and national priority in Ethiopia. The Government monitoring and recharging the aquifers; (iii) is well-positioned to enhance resilience in Transportation: Improve accessibility to at-risk its capital cities. Leading ministries, regional areas of the cities (such as informal markets), and local governments have made strong schools (often used as shelters) and hospitals; commitments to address the many shocks and improve public transportation services, reduce stresses that threaten urban development gains congestion, and increase safety measures; and and can affect future progress. The findings and foster the development of integrated land use, recommendations of this report emphasize the transportation, and drainage plans; (iv) Energy: need for long-term and sustained investment in Rehabilitate and expand distribution networks strengthening resilience that will help Ethiopia to reduce fire incidents and increase access; meet these urban challenges. With resilient improve the use of renewable energy sources communities, infrastructure, institutions, and while increasing robustness, redundancy, through increased awareness—the anticipated and reliability; and (v) Urban finance: Improve growth of Ethiopia’s cities can lead to thriving, policies for collection and use of municipal competitive, and inclusive urbanization. revenues, develop a contingency plan and dedicate funds to improve access to finance during emergencies. xxii Executive Summary Table ES.1 Priority Interventions, and Implementation Responsibility Implementation Timeline Actions and Investments Responsibility I. Effectively manage rapid urban growth in a risk-sensitive manner, focusing on the most vulnerable Short term 1. Develop integrated, coordinated, and risk-sensitive urban CA, ULGs, MoUDH, master planning, implementation, and monitoring processes Short to 2. Resolve housing crisis and support the most vulnerable CA, ULGs, MoUDH, medium term relevant line ministries II. Better management of flooding and water scarcity Short term 3. Plan and implement integrated flood risk management in all CA, ULGs, MoUDH, MoWIE, regional capitals NDRMC Short to 4. Resolve water scarcity CA, ULGs, MoUDH, MoWIE, medium term NDRMC III. Improve disaster preparedness including fire safety and response Short term 5. Establish Disaster Risk Management institutional framework CA, ULGs, MoUDH, NDRMC Short to 6. Improve disaster data collection, risk assessment, and ULGs, MoUDH, NDRMC, CA medium term information sharing Short to 7. Improve fire and rescue response capacity by providing ULGs, MoUDH, NDRMC, CA medium term financial and technical support to fire services IV. Improve building regulatory framework to mitigate seismic risk and enhance overall safety Short term 8. Reduce risk in existing environment by assessing key MoC, MoUDH, RB, CA, infrastructure to be retrofitted and developing an investment plan ULGs Short to 9. Establish Quality Enhancement Review and regulatory process MoC, MoUDH, RB, CA, medium term at national and local levels ULGs IV. Support key sector priorities Medium term 10. Support key sectoral priorities as a part of integrated and CA, ULGs, MoUDH, resilient urban development relevant line ministries Note on abbreviations: CA: City Administration; MoC: Ministry of Construction; MoUDH: Ministry of Urban Development and Housing; MoWIE: Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity; NDRMC: National Disaster Risk Management Commission; RB: Regional Bureaus; ULGs: Urban Local Governments. xxiii I. INVESTING IN URBAN RESILIENCE: FOR A SAFER AND PROSPEROUS ETHIOPIA Photo: Hecke61© Shutterstock.comm 1. The Case for Investing in Urban Resilience in Ethiopia Ethiopia has undergone a significant economic and social transformation over the past decade. Poverty rates have declined from 55.3 percent in 2000 to 33.5 percent in 2011, and there was significant progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).17 With 30 percent of Ethiopians living in urban areas by 2028, and a tripling of the urban population by 2034, urban population growth has the potential to shift the structure and location of economic activity from rural agriculture to larger and more diversified urban industrial and service sectors. Cities, and especially the capital, Addis Ababa, already play an important role in the economy, contributing 38 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) while employing only 15 percent of the total workforce (World Bank, 2015b). Ethiopia is at a crossroads in its efforts to urbanize and develop toward middle income status—a national goal under its Growth and Transformation Plan (GTPII). The country faces key challenges of ensuring that urbanization continues to complement growth by strengthening resilience, rather than losing development gains to disasters and other crises. The rapid growth in building stocks will pose increasing challenges to urban authorities and communities in steering construction toward safe areas and ensuring the construction of safer buildings. At this pace, without proper planning and measures to manage the impacts of rapid urban growth, together with the cities’ exposure to floods, fire, earthquakes, water scarcity, and other impacts from a changing climate, Ethiopia risks exacerbating existing urban challenges—poverty, water scarcity, and unemployment—and could miss the opportunity to capitalize on the positive impacts of urbanization. This chapter explores the meaning of urban resilience in the Ethiopian context. After defining the meaning of urban resilience, the chapter provides a brief overview of urbanization challenges in key Ethiopian cities and current policy and frameworks to manage urban development. The second half of the chapter focuses on key questions to ask in order to identify challenges and actions to strengthen resilience in key Ethiopian cities. 1.1. Understanding Urban Resilience Urban resilience is the capacity of a city and its component parts—individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems—to survive, adapt, and grow despite chronic stresses and acute shocks that may threaten their collective viability. A resilient city is able to adapt to a variety of shocks and stresses and still provide essential services to its residents, especially the poor and vulnerable (World Bank, 2015a).18 Resilience works toward long-term sustainability objectives—meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundtland Commission, 1987). WB, 2017 (forthcoming), Draft Country Partnership Framework for the Federal Republic of Ethiopia (FY18-22) 17 Adapted from 100 Resilient Cities pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation. 18 3 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Cities drive national economic growth and Building a resilient city, therefore, requires a innovation and act as cultural and creative holistic, multi-sectoral, and flexible approach to centers. Rapid urbanization, however, especially urban development (World Bank, 2015a). when unplanned, also brings challenges. The concentration of people, assets, and Resilience is measured at different levels, from infrastructure in urban areas, along with a the individual and household, to the community, lack of proper planning and measures to municipal, regional and national levels. It requires a deep understanding of the risks mitigate impacts of rapid growth, means that and vulnerabilities in order to be adequately an increasingly complex range of shocks and prepared. For example, at an individual and stresses can jeopardize the well-being of large household level, resilience implies the capacity numbers of people and hard-won development to manage stresses and be prepared for the gains. In addition to exposure to natural hazards impact of shocks, for example by investing like flooding, landslides, wild fire, water scarcity, in retrofitting the house and planning for and earthquakes, cities are also vulnerable to emergency situations. At the community level, economic downturns, crime and violence, public resilience implies the capacity to work together health epidemics, and infrastructure failure to manage stress and respond to shocks. At (Box 1.1). These shocks and stresses can have the municipal government level, cities must devastating effects, bringing some or all of an invest in risk mitigation measures, and enable urban system to a halt, and causing loss of life households, communities, and businesses to do and asset damage. Disaster losses are often the same, to maintain critical services following linked with, or exacerbated by, poverty and a shock. At the regional and national levels, vulnerability of the poor that stem from socio- resilience implies the capacity to undertake economic and environmental imbalances (World policy reforms, investments or financial Bank, 2015a). protection strategies to enhance resilience. In essence, the resilience of a city depends on the overall performance and capacity of its 1.2. Why Invest in Urban systems, not solely on its ability to cope with Resilience in Ethiopia? specific natural hazards or to adapt targeted Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing urban areas to the impacts of climate change populations in the world. Growing at 5.4 percent (Brugmann, 2012). Cities are complex systems, a year, the urban population is projected to triple and, like all systems, depend on the smooth from 15 million in 2012 to 42 million in 2034. functioning of their constituent parts and the In a business-as-usual scenario, such growth larger organization in which they are nested. may pose huge challenges from increased A city’s resilience is therefore affected by the exposure to disaster and climate change resilience of all of its systems. Disruptions to the impacts, exacerbating existing urban stresses basic services they provide can have cascading such as housing shortages, unemployment, impacts that extend well beyond the city itself, and water and waste management. If managed affecting the vulnerable the most. The complex proactively, however, urban growth can help the interdependencies of these systems also makes Government to achieve its vision of becoming resilience-building especially challenging. a middle-income country by 2025. Significant Focusing on one policy goal, such as climate opportunities exist to foster economic growth protection, without considering others can by shifting from rural agriculture to the larger lead to undesirable outcomes. These decisions and more diversified urban industrial and may come as explicit trade-offs, unintended service sectors. The consequences of not taking consequences, or some combination of the two. timely action may be lost economic opportunity 4 Investing in Urban Resilience: For a Safer and Prosperous Ethiopia and the greater human and economic costs of to withstand climate- and disaster-related risks. disaster and climate change impacts. Choices made today about the type, features and location of new and renovated infrastructure can Resilient and integrated urban development is ensure national commitments to resiliency for key to sustaining Ethiopia’s decade of economic years to come, reducing future levels of urban progress and achieving the Government of vulnerability. Ethiopia’s (GoE) objective of middle-income status. From one of the least urbanized regions A second reason to invest in urban resilience is of the world, estimated at only 17 percent in to safeguard Ethiopia’s hard-won development 2012, the urban population share is projected gains. The Second Growth and Transformation to increase to 30 percent by 2028. Ethiopia’s Plan (2014/15–2020) reveals that the share urban areas contribute more than 38 percent of Ethiopia’s urban population living below of its GDP while generating about 80 percent poverty declined from 35.1 percent in 2006 of GDP growth. Yet, Ethiopian cities are already to 25.7 percent in 2011.19 But disasters can struggling with access to jobs, infrastructure, quickly reverse these gains, affecting not only services, and housing (World Bank, 2015b). Rapid GDP growth and loss, but exacerbating existing urbanization will lead to greater concentrations poverty and extending its reach. People living of people, assets, and infrastructure, increasing at or near the poverty threshold are already challenges and exposure to shocks and stresses. especially vulnerable to shocks (Hallegatte et An absence of land-use planning, coordination al., 2017). Many of the urban poor live in highly of services, and mobilization of financing exposed areas of a city—such as wetlands, for infrastructure pose major constraints to floodplains, landfills, garbage dumps, and healthy urbanization, and compound Ethiopia’s rocky areas—as these are the only economically continued exposure to natural hazards. Together, viable options available to them (World Bank, these risks increase cities’ vulnerability to 2016). According to the Overseas Development shocks, with potentially devastating effects on Institute (ODI), by 2030, in Ethiopia, an estimated Ethiopia’s economic performance and its poverty 20 million extremely poor dwellers (living on alleviation agenda. less than US$1.25 per day) are likely to be Two main benefits justify investing in urban exposed to multiple hazards, such as drought, resilience. First, forward-thinking risk flooding, and landslides.20 Disaster impacts are management and development planning are key felt directly through the loss of life, livelihoods, to avoiding long-term costs otherwise associated and infrastructure, and indirectly through with retrofitting services to poorly planned and the diversion of funds from development to overcrowded urban areas. Making cities safer, emergency relief and reconstruction (DfID more resilient and livable, and more productive 2005).21 Without systems and services for requires the right policies, institutions, and resilience, disasters can push vulnerable people investments now, when urbanization levels are into—or further into—poverty. Recurrent shocks fairly low. It is timely for Ethiopian cities to pair can undermine past gains and hamper future risk management with inclusive urban services, economic growth, leading to a pernicious robust technologies, and resilient infrastructure “poverty trap” for many of the urban poor development so urban areas are better prepared (Hallegatte et al. 2016). 19 Government of Ethiopia, “Second Growth and Transformational Plan (Ethiopian Cities Sustainable Prosperity Initiative)” (2015–2020), Urban Devel- opment, Housing and Construction Sector (Draft) 20 ODI, The Geography of Poverty, Disasters and Climate Extremes in 2030. Note: The study estimates 20 to 22 million extremely poor people exposed to multiple hazards in Ethiopia. 21 World Bank, 2015. CityStrength Diagnostic Methodological Guidebook 5 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Beyond a direct impact on incomes, disasters growing urban regions, including Amhara, can also lead to long-term setbacks in education, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’ health, and employment opportunities. A study Region (SNNPR), Tigray, Oromiya, and Dire Dawa, that examined the long-term disaster impacts and contribute significantly to the country’s on children in poor households in Ethiopia, economic growth. The regional capitals in these Kenya, Niger, and Zimbabwe found heightened growing regions are increasingly establishing risk of malnourishment, growth stunting, and themselves as industrial and commercial decreased education in children exposed to centers. For instance, Adama, Hawassa, and drought (Fuentes-Nieva and Seck, 2009). In Dire Dawa are the three cities in the country Ethiopia, the study found that children aged five designated as industrial parks as part of a or under in drought-prone areas are 36 percent nationwide initiative.22 more likely to be malnourished and 41 percent more likely to be stunted if they are born during At the other end of the population and a drought year. This translates into some two urbanization spectrum are the cities of Assosa, million “additional” malnourished children. Gambella, Harar, Jigjiga, and Semera-Logia, The consequences of not taking timely action which are relatively small, each with a current will not only be the loss of social and economic population between 20,000 and 170,000 people. opportunities going forward and of development These cities are, however, experiencing very high gains of the past, but also the growing parallel rural-urban migration and most are projected to risks of increased impacts from climate have populations between 100,000 and 400,000 variability and natural disasters. by 2037, except Jigjiga, which will house close to half a million people by then.23 These relatively Urbanization Challenges smaller regional capitals are found in the Ethiopia’s urban center is the capital region of emerging regions including Somali, Benishangul, Addis Ababa, with a population of 3.6 million Afar, and Gambella (except Harar, which is in as of 2016 (CSA, 2013b) and housing about 21 the Harari region). These regions not only have percent of the country’s urban population. smaller population sizes, but are also relatively With 10 times the population of some of the underdeveloped and are only recently catching other major regional capital cities, migration up to the rest of the regions. and economic activity have polarized in the Ethiopia’s urban population is concentrated in capital region. To mediate this, the GoE is now the regional capitals of Dire Dawa, Adama and focusing on establishing alternative centers to Mekelle, followed by Hawassa and Bahir Dar. diffuse the benefits of urbanization to different Urban population growth has been particularly parts of the country. Following Addis Ababa, high in Semera-Logia and Jigjiga, with high the nine regional capitals and Dire Dawa City population growth in Gambella and Assosa Administration can be categorized into two between 1984 and 1994. Figures 1.1 and 1.2 groups based on their population size and show the strong urban population growth that regional location. The first group is comprised Ethiopia has experienced (CSA 1984, 1994, 2007, of the cities of Adama, Bahir Dar, Dire Dawa, 2016). Semera-Logia (12.1%) and Jigjiga (9.1%) Hawassa and Mekelle, each with a current had the highest growth rates between 1994 population between 300,000 and 400,000 people, and 2007, while Gambella (14%) and Assosa representing the next tier of cities after Addis (10.4%) experienced the highest growth rates Ababa. They are located in the country’s fastest between 1984 and 1994. All four cities are in the Note: Information obtained from participants at the CityStrength workshop 22 Note: Based on the Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and World Bank estimates. 23 6 Investing in Urban Resilience: For a Safer and Prosperous Ethiopia emerging regions and have a relatively small million people each.24 The built-up areas of these urban population. Their high growth rates could regional capitals have grown rapidly, such as in be a reflection of their emergence as regional Dire Dawa which has witnessed five-fold increase capitals, but it could also be due to their small in urban built up area between 1973 and 2016.25 base. Aside from these four cities, Hawassa and Assosa, Gambella, Harar, Jigjiga and Semera- Mekelle, which are found in the growing regions, Logia will comparably house fewer people but also experienced fast growth from 1994–2007 are witnessing much higher population growth (6.3% and 6.2%, respectively). Migration is a rate. Urban built up areas in Assosa, Jigjiga major cause of population growth in the regional and Gambella have noted even more dramatic capitals. The proportion of migrants in seven change with twenty, seventeen and thirteen-fold cities in 2007 ranged between 52 percent and increase.26 Such a huge increase in population 72 percent indicating that in the majority of and size must be matched by commensurate the cities, more than half of the population are services, housing, and jobs. In addition, disaster migrants (CSA 2007). prevention and mitigation becomes crucial because the impact of any disaster will be By 2037, the major cities (Adama, Bahir Dar, Dire greater with the increased urban concentrations Dawa, Hawassa and Mekelle) will house nearly a of population and economy. Figure 1.1. Population across Census Periods and Projections for 2016 in Regional Capitals   400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 1984 200,000 1994 150,000 2007 100,000 2016 50,000 0 Source: Source: CSA (1984, 1994, 2007, 2016) 24 Based on the Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and World Bank estimates. 25 Spatial assessment conducted 26 Based on CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data, libra 7 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Figure 1.2. Population Projections in Regional Capitals 27 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 2017 400,000 2032 200,000 2037 0   Source: Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency and WB estimates) Growing Impacts from Disasters 27 experienced the collapse of a hillside of waste which buried a number of houses. There were All major Ethiopian cities face increasing 113 casualties and people remain missing.30 This flooding and fire events, and some have faced type of event isn’t experienced exclusively in earthquakes. In April 2016, a rainstorm caused Ethiopia. The city of Payatas in the Philippines serious infrastructure damage in Dire Dawa;28 also experienced the collapse of rubbish at a the city already faced floods in 1984 killing dumpsite in 2000. Waste buried hundreds of 42 people and in 2006 killing 256; in Jigjiga in people who perished. The dumpsite was due to 2016 28 people were killed and 84 were injured be shut down.31 due to floods.29 In Addis Ababa, in 2012 a fire in five-story building in Efoyta Market caused Urban Resilience is a Critical National damages amounting to ETB 20 million (US$1 Priority million). Dessie town is another example where The Government of Ethiopia is aware and landslides still remain major challenges for the engaged in the challenges of strengthening development. Examples of other Ethiopian cities the urban resilience agenda. Ethiopia’s urban which remain prone to recurrent disasters are: development vision is “Creating resilient and Adigrat, Awassa, Adama, and Bahir Dar. Most livable cities.” The Government’s Growth and recently, an event on March 11, 2017 further Transformation Plan (GTP) (2014/15–2020) confirmed the need to pay attention to disaster emphasizes the fundamental importance of events. Repi, Addis Ababa’s only dumpsite, 27 The population data for each city is based on census results (1984, 1994, 2007), the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) projections (2014—2017), and the projection based on overall urbanization growth rates estimated by the World Bank (2017—2037) (see Annex 1). 28 http://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-dire-dawa-floods-ocha-situation-report-no-1 29 https://www.diretube.com/articles/the-jigjiga-flood-killed-28-peoples-in-ethiopia_12110.html 30 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/addis-ababa-death-toll-hits-113-rubbish-landslide-170315165759540.html 31 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/830809.stm 8 Investing in Urban Resilience: For a Safer and Prosperous Ethiopia building green, resilient, and well-governed cities to ensure that land use plans and building to achieve its vision of middle-income country codes are risk-sensitive. It is also envisaged to status by 2025. To support implementation of the contribute to the goals set out under Ethiopia’s GTP goals, the Ministry of Urban Development GTP II. and Housing has prepared the Ethiopian Cities Ethiopia’s Climate Change National Adaptation Prosperity Initiative (2014), with Inclusive and Programme of Action (NAPA) further contributes Safer Cities Development as a key strategic pillar. to the enhancement of urban resilience. In Complementing Ethiopia’s urban development particular, Ethiopia’s NAPA includes as part policies, the Government of Ethiopia has of its prioritized projects the objectives of: (i) developed policies to systematically manage strengthening drought and flood early warning its disaster risks, thereby also enhancing systems in Ethiopia; (ii) establishing a capacity urban resilience. In particular, the Government building program for climate change adaptation developed the National Policy and Strategy in Ethiopia; and (iii) establishing a national on Disaster Risk Management (NPDRM) in research and development (R&D) center on 2013, and has developed the Disaster Risk climate change. These activities strengthen Management Strategic Programme and urban resilience by creating the foundations for Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF). Key goals early response capabilities to shocks. of the NPDRM include the enhancement of The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) should Ethiopia’s capacity to withstand the impact of be commended for its proactive efforts for natural hazards at the national, local, community managing rapidly emerging risks in the built and household level, and to significantly reduce environment. A new Ministry of Construction the damages associated with disasters by 2023. was established in 2015 and a National The NPDRM recognizes the need to strengthen Proclamation was passed in 2009 32 promoting urban resilience, in light of the growing risks the development of sound building control of fire and other hazards associated with rapid practices as well as robust measures to curb urbanization. rent-seeking practices in regulatory activities.33 The DRM-SPIF is a tool to facilitate the National A National Building Code (NBC), currently under Policy and Strategy on DRM by addressing development, should soon be completed. existing gaps and limitations in Ethiopia’s DRM This will conclude a five-year intensive effort. capacity and establishing an integrated DRM Construction bylaws have been prepared and system. The DRM-SPIF explicitly recognizes the implementation manuals for construction have importance of urban risks and the necessity been developed. Ethiopian Building Proclamation No.624/2009 32 Idem: Measures to curb corruption are spelled out in Part 6 of the Proclamation on “culpable infringements of building rules” 33 9 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia BOX 1.2. Key Policies on Urban Development At the policy level, the Government of Ethiopia has made significant advances towards managing the country’s rapid urbanization and strengthening urban resilience. Policies that enhance resilience in urban areas include policies on urban development, disaster risk management and climate change, as outlined below. Three key policy initiatives on urban development have been adopted: (i) the Urban Development Policy; (ii) the National Urban Development Spatial Plan (NUDSP); and (iii) the Ethiopian Cities Sustainable Prosperity Goals (ECSPGs). The NUDSP and ECSPGs aim to contribute to Ethiopia’s progress towards the goals set out in its Second and Third Growth and Transformation Plans. The Urban Development Policy was developed in 2005 and revised and approved by the Council of Ministers in 2013. Key goals of the policy are to: (i) enable cities to become the center of development, impacting development both at rural and national levels; and (ii) enable urban dwellers to exercise authority and benefit from development so they can enjoy the standard of living experienced in middle income countries. Seven principles govern the policy: 1. Enabling cities to establish a sustainable mutual complementarity with rural centers; 2. Expanding the opportunity for growth to all urban centers; 3. Enabling urban centers at all levels to grow in a mutually complementary way; 4. Making poverty reduction and eradication the central objective of urban development; 5. Encouraging the public to participate in development activities; 6. Establishing strong partnerships with development partners; and 7. Granting urban centers authority and freedom of self-administration through decentralization. The NUDSP’s aim is to provide the MUDHo with a vision of Ethiopia’s urban sector in 2035. The NUDSP has been approved by the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing (MUDHo) and is currently under implementation. It considers resilience to flooding, earthquakes, landslides and erosion as among the criteria by which urban scenarios were evaluated. The NUDSP provides for balanced and equitable growth, reducing the primacy of Addis Ababa, with the vision that many large cities will be at the apex of an urban cluster which will consist of a group of variously sized cities and towns that are functionally interlinked. The NUDSP also highlights the importance of linkages between investment in urban infrastructure and economic growth in major towns. The NUDSP is one of the major strategy documents and plans that provided input to the development of the ECSPGs and GTP II. The ECSPGs look to foster green growth, resilient and well-governed cities that support Ethiopia’s progress towards the goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2025. The ECSPGs’ ten strategic pillars will contribute to Ethiopia’s achievement of middle income country status by contributing to a transformation in the economic productivity and good governance of cities. Economic transformation will be achieved by increased good urban governance and through job creation, with a particular focus on micro- and small-enterprise development. 10 Investing in Urban Resilience: For a Safer and Prosperous Ethiopia 1.3. Achieving Resilient Urban by the World Bank in Addis Ababa in 2015, was Development in Ethiopia used for this assessment. Bolstering this effort, three additional parallel assessments were While the Government of Ethiopia has identified conducted: (i) Hazard mapping: The hazard resilient development as a key priority, assessment built on Ethiopia’s ongoing national development and implementation of an action level risk assessment, focusing on national plan to strengthen urban resilience still remains level exposure and risk modeling for seismic, a challenge, as key information on current and volcanic, flooding, drought, and landslide risk; future shocks and stresses in cities, as well as (ii) A review of the national legal framework on local capacity to manage resilience challenges building regulations for resilient buildings: The has not been systematically studied. In Bank team worked closely with the new Ministry particular, the following key questions remain: of Construction to identify recommendations for • What key shocks and stresses affect improving national policies on the construction Ethiopian cities? of safe buildings and infrastructure; and (iii) A review of emergency response and management • What hazards are cities exposed to now requirements for urban areas: One outcome and in the future, and are cities prepared? of the review was guidelines to develop cities’ capacity for emergency preparedness and • What is the local capacity to deal with response. shocks and stresses, and be resilient? Based on discussion and agreement with the • What critical actions are needed to make Ministry of Urban Development and Housing Ethiopian cities more resilient? and the Ministry of Finance, this TA focused on To answer these questions, a Technical 10 priority cities including the Dire Diwa City Assistance (TA) program was carried out between Administration and nine regional capitals: Jijiga, 2015 and 2017 to assist the Government of Gambella, Semera/Logia, Assossa, Mekelle, Ethiopia to strengthen urban resilience. The Adma, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, and Harari (see CityStrength diagnostic methodology, piloted Figure 1.3). 11 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Figure 1.3. CityStrength Diagnostic Participating Regional Capital Cities Source: Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors 12 Investing in Urban Resilience: For a Safer and Prosperous Ethiopia A key part of the assessment was based on the assistance builds upon the implementation of CityStrength Diagnostic methodology, which CityStrength in Addis Ababa in 2015, which was is a rapid diagnostic engagement process expanded here to include the ten cities. Three to facilitate dialogue among stakeholders additional analyses were conducted to add (government, civil society, residents, and the rigor to the Diagnostic which included hazard private sector) about risk, resilience, and the mapping based on an ongoing national level risk performance of urban systems. The tool is assessment, and analysis of building regulations used to identify shocks, (e.g., fire or flooding) and emergency response management capacity and stresses (e.g., housing shortages, high in urban areas. Based on the Government’s unemployment, lack of public services) that Ethiopian Cities Prosperity Initiative (ECPI expose urban residents and urban systems 2014) strategy for urban development, 10 to higher vulnerability including to natural sectors were requested by the government to hazards and economic and socio-economic be included in the exercise: (1) Urban Planning impacts. The diagnostic first evaluates resilience and Housing; (2) Urban Finance; (3) Disaster on a sectoral basis against five qualities of Risk Management and Climate Change; (4) resilience: robustness, redundancy, reflection, Environmental Management; (5) Transport and coordination, and inclusiveness (Box 3.1). It Roads; (6) Water Supply and Sanitation; (7) then brings the findings together for a holistic Solid Waste Management; (8) Energy; (9) Local view of challenges and needs. The methodology Economic Development; and (10) Community facilitates stakeholders’ identification of Development and Social Protection. The tailored priority actions and investments to enhance stages of the CityStrength Diagnostic that were cities’ resilience and increase the resilience- followed in Ethiopia are presented in Table 1.1. building potential of planned or prospective The standard five stages of CityStrength can be projects (World Bank, 2015a). The technical found in Figure 1.4. 13 Photo: Stephan Bachenheier © World Bank Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Table 1.1. Five Stages of the CityStrength Diagnostic Methodology in Ethiopia Diagnostic Stage Actions Pre-Diagnostic Review Consisted of collecting primary and secondary data, reports, and plans; and summarizing key findings on hazard risk, emergency management capacity, (November 2015 – June building regulations, and main vulnerabilities. A questionnaire and data sheet 2016) were sent to each of the participating cities requesting key baseline data such as percentage of solid waste collected in the city and number of people with access to safe water. The different inputs were collected to prepare a prediagnostic report to brief sectoral specialists and city stakeholders participating in the CityStrength Diagnostic. Inception Workshop Introduced the concept of urban resilience and CityStrength Diagnostic methodology to stakeholders from the regional capitals and Dire Dawa, which (November 2015) included mayors and technical focal points. There was a discussion on initial findings based on ongoing activities in the country, followed by a preliminary identification of city and sectoral-level shocks and stresses that served as an input to the selection of sectoral modules included in the overall exercise. Focal points from all key ministries and cities were nominated. City Consultations Three regional workshops were organized to conduct group discussions, interviews and site visits with stakeholders at national, regional, and city level (April 2016) and academic institutions, to confirm and elaborate on the preliminary findings from previous stages, identify challenges and opportunities for urban resilience, assess performance of urban systems, and exchange information and best practices. Concrete outcomes from the consultations included hotspot mapping of main vulnerabilities in the cities, a confirmed list of shocks and stresses at city and sectoral level, and an initial list of priority actions for enhanced resilience at city and sectoral level. The consultations were facilitated by World Bank technical specialists. Prioritization Session A meeting was carried out immediately after the consultations in April 2016 and National Consultation between the World Bank and key stakeholders. There was a discussion about Workshop the outcomes of the process followed by confirmation of priorities moving forward, taking into account major threats and alignment with local goals and (April - July 2016) objectives. The meeting included representatives from the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing; Ministry of Construction; Ministry of Finance and Economic Development; Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity; the recently established National DRM Commission, and World Bank specialists. A draft summary publication was prepared in the following months which was presented at a national consultation workshop in July 2016 with technical focal points and government officials from the participating cities and relevant line ministries. The purpose of the gathering was to brief stakeholders on the compilation of input from all previous stages, and offer one last round of comments. National Dissemination The finalized summary publication was launched at a dissemination workshop Workshop in the presence of national, regional and local leadership, as well as other stakeholders including civil society, academic institutions, and development (June 2017) partners. The launch was followed by a facilitated discussion on next steps to implement the findings. Note: The process in Ethiopia is adapted from the City Strength Diagnostic Methodology. 14 Investing in Urban Resilience: For a Safer and Prosperous Ethiopia Figure 1.4. CityStrength Diagnostic Process Stages of the CityStrength Diagnostic CityStrength Diagnostic NEXT Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 1 Studies and surveys to fill data gaps Pre-diagnostic Launch Interviews & Prioritization Discussion & Next Feasibility studies for Review Workshop Field Visits Session Steps critical infrastructure or programs Review and Get stakeholders Talk to local Share sectoral Meet with local synthesize what together, explain experts, officials, findings and leaders to has already the process, share community agree on summarize findings Scope for technical been studied in and confirm members, and priorities and and agree on assistance the city. findings of Stage conduct site follow-up actions priorities and next Compile data 1, and discuss visits. to recommend steps. Concept for a project and prepare shocks and base maps. stresses. Source: Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC, and other contributors 1.4. Report Structure and across the 10 cities. It answers the question Next Chapters whether local capacity exists to deal with shocks and stresses, and if urban systems are resilient. This report captures the outcomes of the TA Each sectoral assessment is done against the on Strengthening Urban Resilience in Ethiopia, five qualities of resilience to understand capacity including CityStrength Diagnostic carried out constraints and resilience priorities. This exercise in the Dire Dawa City Administration and nine was conducted jointly by the participants in regional capitals of Ethiopia. the consultations and the World Bank sectoral specialists. Chapter II provides an overview of shocks and stresses in the cities, the growing hazard After determining vulnerabilities at the sectoral exposure, the impacts of climate change, and level, Chapter IV provides a summary of the preparedness in terms of emergency response priorities at the city level that were determined and safe building construction. It also addresses during the consultation workshops. It provides the question of what hazards cities are exposed details of critical actions needed to make to (now and in future), and whether they are Ethiopian cities more resilient. Designed to adequately prepared. be accessible to a broad audience, this report presents the most relevant and actionable Chapter III focuses on the resilience of urban information that emerged from the diagnostic systems based on assessments in 10 sectors exercise. 15 II. II. RESILIENCE CHALLENGES IN ETHIOPIAN CITIES : SHOCKS, STRESSES AND HAZARD PREPAREDNESS 17 Photo: Aleksandr Frolov © Dreamstime.com 2. Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities This chapter provides an overview of shocks and stresses reported by the 10 participating cities in the CityStrength Diagnostic consultation workshops, with a focus on responses to two questions: (i) What key shocks and stresses affect Ethiopian cities? and (ii) What hazards are cities exposed to and are the regional capitals prepared? To understand future hazards facing Ethiopia’s growing cities, an assessment of hazard exposure was undertaken based on globally available data. Two additional assessments were carried out to understand the cities’ current capacity to incorporate safeguards against hazard exposure in buildings and infrastructure, and emergency response capacity in case of a disaster. The first of these looked into the broader strategic perspective of improving building safety in Ethiopia. It addressed specific regulatory issues in building standards and building control mechanisms that may typically be addressed in the short- and medium-term through a coordinated reform effort. The review also considered larger institutional perspectives that are key to fostering a culture of regulatory compliance in the longer term. The second assessment looked at cities’ emergency response and preparedness capacity in the event of disaster. Assessments in four cities focused on fire response capacity, flood preparedness and response capacity, and earthquake alert, preparedness, and response capacity. 2.1. Primary Shocks and Stresses in Regional Capitals Shocks are sudden events that impact the performance of a system. There are shocks of different types and scale, including disease outbreaks, flooding, high winds, landslides, drought, or earthquakes. Outbreaks of fighting or violence, or severe economic volatility, could be included in this category as well (World Bank, 2015a). Stresses are longer-term trends that undermine the performance of a given system and increase the vulnerability of participants within it. These can include natural resource degradation, loss of agricultural production, demographic changes (e.g., aging and depopulation), climate change, political instability, or economic decline (DFID 2011). A significant stress facing many cities in developing countries is urbanization itself, due to the pressures places on urban systems and the delivery of basic services. Stresses can be cumulative, compounding gradually until a tipping point is reached and transformed into a shock (World Bank, 2015a). 19 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Of the 10 cities participating in the CityStrength 2015b). As cities grow larger, more populated, diagnostic assessment, all nine capital cities and the center of more infrastructure and assets, and the Dire Dawa City Administration are they become increasingly vulnerable to the facing increased exposure to flooding and fire. impacts of shocks and stresses associated with Many cities are exposed to earthquakes but rapid urbanization. They need urgent support lack preparation for a seismic event. Moreover, and investment to manage these existing severe landslides were also identified as a major shocks and stresses, which are likely to grow with shock (see Table 2.1). The regional capitals increased exposure to the impacts of climate also face a number of diverse urban stresses. change. All are challenged by housing shortages and Tables 2.1 and 2.2 identify the shocks and water scarcity, while most struggle with stresses (respectively) faced by capital cities. unemployment, traffic accidents, and growth Those that are prevalent in most cities have been of informal settlements. Further, capital city highlighted in red as a priority for assessing and populations and their sprawling built-up areas finding solutions. See Annex 3 for city profiles, are each projected to triple by 2037 (World Bank, with details on shocks and stresses by city. Table 2.1 Shocks Faced by Cities Dire Semera- Cities Adama Bahir Dar Mekelle Hawassa Dawa Harar Jigjiga Assosa Gambella Logia Flooding Fire Earthquake Landslide High Wind Drought Disease Outbreak Rains/ Storms Source: National, regional and local stakeholders participating in the CityStrength consultations 20 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Table 2.2. Stresses Faced by Cities Bahir Dire Semera- Cities Adama Dar Mekelle Hawassa Dawa Harar Jigjiga Assosa Gambella Logia Housing Shortage Water Scarcity Traffic Accidents Unemployment Growth of Informal Settlements Energy Poor Sanitation Pollution Migration/ Urban Growth Inadequate Drainage Inadequate SWM Lack of Technical Capacity Source: National, regional and local stakeholders participating in the CityStrength consultations 21 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Other stresses identified by some cities, though in or near the city, and fall within the regions not as prevalent as those in the table, include exposed to severe agricultural drought. Four of traffic congestion, poor infrastructure, poor the five larger regional capitals—Adama, Dire water quality, increased temperature and Dawa, Hawassa, and Mekelle—are exposed to diseases, and a growing number of homeless agricultural drought, flooding, earthquake risk, children. landslides (especially in Mekelle), and volcanic activity (except in Dire Dawa and Mekelle). 2.2. Growing Hazard Exposure Bahir Dar is exposed to severe drought and Based on a global data-based hazard mapping flooding, as well as landslides. Semera-Logia, assessment (Box 2.1), Ethiopian cities are one of the relatively smaller regional capitals, exposed to a number of natural hazards, is at the highest exposure to earthquakes, and including flooding, earthquakes, volcanic Jigjiga faces high river flooding, and exposure activity, landslides, and water scarcity (Table to agricultural drought, earthquakes and 2.3). The modeling shows that a large majority landslides. Assosa, Harar, and Gambella are of regional capitals are exposed to flooding exposed to flooding and drought. BOX 2.1. Hazard Mapping for Ethiopian Cities The hazard mapping described in this report was conducted using hazard data from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Innovation Labs’ National Multi-Hazard Risk Profiles, developed as part of the ACP-EU program, “Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa. The mapping illustrates the distribution of hazards in the context of cities, population, GDP, and selected infrastructure networks. At the city level, the data are indicative of hazard; they are not for planning purposes at the city level, and are not a substitute for detailed local hazard mapping. In the maps, city locations are provided for regional administrative capitals and cities with populations exceeding 50,000 people. Data comes from the global Geonames database1, and refers to population from the 2007 census. Road network data were obtained from OpenStreetMap. Only major roads are shown on city group maps. In all maps, GDP is presented in US$ million, in terms of Purchasing Power Parity, at a resolution of one square kilometer. Sub-national and sector GDP contributions were obtained from various sources, such as national statistics offices. A description of each hazard component is given below. • Seismic hazard: This comprises round shaking only; ground deformation and liquefaction are not included. • River flood hazard: This comprises riverine (fluvial) flood only; urban surface water flooding is not included. • Volcanic hazard: Due to data limitation volcanic hazard has been represented using three volcanoes and two volcanic fields in central Ethiopia. It is not an exhaustive assessment of volcanic hazard in Ethiopia. • Landslide hazard: Seismic activity and rainfall are considered as separate landslide triggers, resulting in mapping of both • Agricultural drought hazard: Neither hydrological nor meteorological drought, nor water scarcity have been mapped as part of this project. 22 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Table 2.3. Qualitative Simulated Hazard Levels in Regional Capitals Agricultural River Flooding Drought Earthquake City (100-Year Period) (50-Year Period) (100-Year Period) Landslide Volcanic Event Addis Ababa Flooding in city Severe Moderate Low-moderate Flow Adama Flooding near city Severe Moderate Low-moderate Flow Hawassa Flooding in city Severe Moderate Low-moderate Ash and flow Dire Dawa Flooding near city Severe Moderate Low-moderate Not modeled* Jigjiga Flooding in city Severe Moderate Low-moderate Not modeled Harari Flooding near city Severe Low Low-moderate Not modeled Bahir Dar Flooding in city Severe Low Moderate Not modeled Assosa No flooding near city Severe-extreme Low Low-moderate Not modeled Gambella Flooding near city Severe Low Low Not modeled Mekelle Flooding near city Severe-extreme Moderate Moderate-high Not modeled Semera-Logia Flooding in city Severe-extreme High Low Not modeled Source: Draft report on Hazard modeling for Ethiopian Cities, 2016.(World Bank 2016b) *Some cities not modeled for lack of data. River Flooding Hazard rural populations and livelihoods. While the modeling does not show flooding hazard in Dire River flooding is a hazard that affects locations close to rivers, including many cities, in all Dawa and Jigjiga due to limited data, both these regions of Ethiopia (Figures 2.1 and 2.2). Flood cities are highly exposed to flooding. Figure hazard is still not well understood in Ethiopia 2.2 provides details of flood hazard exposure due to a limited number of hydrology and in central Ethiopia, around the Addis, Adama stream gauging stations. The available modeling and Hawassa corridor, showing GDP exposed to indicate the potential for flooding in large cities flooding hazard. The available hazard mapping such as Semera-Logia, Hawassa, and Bahir-Dar. do not cover urban flooding because surface The hazard map (Figure 2.1) indicates that in water or drainage challenges prevalent in cities exposed cities, river flooding up to 0.9 meters in are hard to capture through global data. Higher- depth would be expected to occur, on average, resolution, local-scale, flood modeling that once every 100 years. River flooding also poses includes pluvial flooding should be carried out to real hazards in nearby rural areas, affecting gain a fuller picture of urban flood hazard. 23 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Figure 2.1. River Flooding Hazard in Ethiopia as River Flooding Depth Source: CIMA Foundation and Deltares 2016. Note: The levels of flooding shown would be expected to be exceeded, on average, once in approximately 100 years. The maps do not include data for urban surface water flooding. The flooding hazard was estimated using global rainfall data and a global river model at a resolution of 1 km2. 24 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Figure 2.2. River Flooding Hazard in Central Ethiopia as River Flood Depth Source: Hazard Mapping carried out by CIMA Foundation and Deltares 2016. Note: The levels of flooding shown would be expected to be exceeded, on average, once in approximately 100 years. The maps do not include data for urban surface water flooding. The flooding hazard was estimated using global rainfall data and a global river model at a resolution 1 km2. GDP is presented in US$ million, in terms of Purchasing Power Parity, at a resolution of 1km2. GDP indicates concentrations of socioeconomic activity (i.e., exposure to the hazard.) 25 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Seismic Hazard Ethiopia’s urban regions have above normal Ethiopia is bisected by the East African Rift, risk due to weak infrastructure, poor quality creating significant potential for earthquakes of building construction as well as lack of and volcanic eruptions. Seismic hazard is still preparedness. The capital Addis Ababa is located not well understood in Ethiopia, since there close to the western edge of the Ethiopian Rift is not systematic documentation of historic Valley and is growing very rapidly (3.8 percent earthquakes. Despite facing moderate seismicity, per year). Figure 2.3. Seismic Hazard (Peak Ground Acceleration) in Ethiopia Source: RED and ERN 2016. Note: The levels of ground shaking shown would be expected to be exceeded, on average, once in approximately 100 years. This hazard map is similar to that in development for the Ethiopian Building Code (EBCS). 26 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Figure 2.3 shows the area of the greatest seismic is located in the region of the fault junction hazard in Ethiopia corresponding to the location and is therefore the city most exposed to of the East African Rift fault zone, which runs earthquake hazard. Several other smaller cities from the south of Ethiopia into the Red Sea and with population of more than 50,000 are located Gulf of Aden to the north, with a fault junction in in areas that would be expected to experience the Afar region in northern Ethiopia. Several of structurally damaging ground movement, on the largest Ethiopian cities lie in this zone and average, at least once in a 100-year period. The are exposed to seismic hazard: Addis Ababa, west and east of the country have low seismic Hawassa, and Adama (Figure 2.4). Semera-Logia hazard. Figure 2.4. Seismic Hazard (Peak Ground Acceleration) in Central Ethiopia Seismic data source: RED and ERN (2016). GDP data source: World Bank. Note: The levels of ground shaking shown would be expected to be exceeded, on average, once in approximately 100 years. GDP is also shown, indicating concentrations of socioeconomic activity (i.e., exposure to the hazard). 27 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Landslide Hazard cities and highways in these regions have high landslide risk and the associated risks of Most large cities and regional capitals in Ethiopia are close to areas with moderate to interruption to road networks; these include the high landslide hazard, whether from rainfall cities of Dese and Kembolcha in eastern Amhara, or a seismic trigger (Figures 2.5 and 2.6). The and the entire Addis Ababa–Mekelle highway. greatest distribution of high landslide hazard Landslide hazard is least prevalent in the region occurs in the Amhara, Tigray, and SNNPR regions, of the East African Rift seismic fault and fault although the regional capitals of Amhara (Bahir- junction in the north, hence there is generally Dar) and Tigray (Mekelle) are located in areas low landslide hazard around Semera-Logia and of relatively low to moderate hazard. Several in the east of the country. Figure 2.5. Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard in Ethiopia Source: Arup 2016. Note: Hazard level reflects the susceptibility of terrain to landslides in each mapped km2 cell and the likelihood of landslides being triggered by earthquakes. Very high hazard equates to a landslide occurring once every five to 20 years, on average. 28 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Figure 2.6. Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard in Ethiopia Source: Arup 2016. Note: Hazard level reflects the susceptibility of terrain to landslides in each km2 cell and the likelihood of landslides being triggered by rainfall. Very high hazard equates to a landslide occurring, on average between once every five years and once every 20 years. 29 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Volcanic Hazard the relationship between hazard intensity and frequency has been informed by observations Volcanic hazard analysis has been carried out at other similar volcanoes in the region. The only for selected volcanoes and volcanic fields present analysis does not represent a complete because there is an absence of eruptive history view of volcanic hazard in Ethiopia, but instead data for many volcanoes in Ethiopia. At the shows the potential exposure to volcanic hazards volcanoes for which some data are available, in the country. Figure 2.7. Volcanic Hazard in Central Ethiopia Source: Global Volcano Model, British Geological Survey, and University of Bristol. 2016. Note: Figure shows depth of ash (mm) around Corbetti, Aluto, and Fentale volcanoes, with 0.01 percent annual probability of exceedance. The levels of ash shown would be expected to be exceeded, on average, once in approximately 1,000 years. Volcanic flow hazard (Pyroclastic Density Currents and Lahar) is shown as a topographically derived potential hazard zone, in which flow hazards might occur in the modeled scenarios. 30 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness In this limited area analysis, Hawassa, Adama, or wind conditions. Ethiopia has many other Addis Ababa, and the smaller cities of Asela and volcanoes that have been known to be active in Shashemene are in the proximity of volcanic the past, and their locations are similar to that ash and/or flow hazards (Figure 2.7). Hawassa is of the highest seismic hazard in the country the only city falling within a delineated volcanic (Figure 2.8). Although the available data on most hazard zone, but there is substantial uncertainty of these volcanoes are currently limited, work in volcanic hazard modeling of volcanoes with is underway by international and Ethiopian little eruptive history, and any of the cities research groups to investigate the hazard posed shown could be at risk in certain eruptions and/ by these volcanoes. Figure 2.8. Holocene Volcanoes of Ethiopia and Surrounding Areas Source: Global Volcano Model, British Geological Survey, and University of Bristol, 2016 31 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Drought Hazard close to the city of Arba Minch. Further analysis incorporating water usage would be required Any area of Ethiopia can expect, on average, to to communicate water scarcity in and around experience severe agricultural drought at least large cities. Apart from water scarcity and food once in a 50-year period (Figure 2.9). In some insecurity, drought affects urban and rural areas, a 50-year agricultural drought could be migration, and thus drought is an important more extreme, particularly in the northwest hazard to monitor around cities as well. around the city of Gondar and in the southwest Figure 2.9. Agricultural Drought Hazard in Ethiopia (2 percent annual probability of exceedance) Source: CIMA Foundation and Deltares 2016. Note: The level of drought shown would be expected to be exceeded, on average, once in approximately 50 years. The maps do not include data for meteorological and hydrological drought or water scarcity. White color in the map indicates that data was not available for that area. 32 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness 2.3. Unsafe Built Environment economic progress of the country and thus expanding its role.”34 With rapid growth comes a significant amount of new construction, much of which will occur Proclamation No. 916/15 assigns a wide range in cities with limited capacity to ensure that of operational responsibilities to the Ministry the structures in which people live, work and of Construction. The MoC prepares and gets gather are built to withstand the chronic stresses approval on short- and long-term programs and (i.e. fire, spontaneous collapse and unhealthful projects based upon the policies, proclamations, conditions) and disaster shocks (i.e. earthquakes, and regulations prepared by the Ministry floods). In many ways, Ethiopia is at a crossroads and approved by the federal government. in its efforts to urbanize and develop towards Importantly, the MoC is responsible for defining middle income status. Regulatory decisions and overseeing implementation of Ethiopia’s made now can have significant impact on the building codes and standards, as well as building long-term safety, productivity and resilience of capacity among public and private sector the urban built environment. building professionals. To this end, the Ministry (a) accredits contractors and construction Recent Regulatory Reforms consultants (e.g. engineers, architects), (b) Impacting Building Safety registers construction professionals and firms, The recently established Ministry of (c) grants permits for importing construction Construction (MoC) is the primary regulator equipment, and (d) provides construction of both private and public sector building sector-related information services, among other construction. Established in October 2015 as responsibilities. Direct oversight of these work a standalone federal agency, the Ministry of streams is delegated to regional construction Construction separated from what was the bureaus, with on-the-ground implementation Ministry of Urban Development, Housing and largely carried out by city-level construction Construction (herein referred to by its revised administrations that are directly responsible for name, “Ministry of Urban Development and plan review, permitting and inspection. To carry Housing”). The new ministry was established out this mandate, the Ministry of Construction is to consolidate in one entity the previously currently undergoing a significant hiring process piecemeal oversight of the construction sector (roughly 450 individuals) at the federal level. by multiple ministries. This consolidation also enables more dedicated attention to the Currently, two key pieces of legislations regulate construction sector, as land management drew the construction sector: significant attention when both portfolios were managed under a single ministry. This focused • Ethiopian Building Proclamation No. oversight on building safety is especially needed 624/2009 was the first building reform in light of Ethiopia’s recent surge in construction. introduced since 1987 and determines The Ministry of Construction draws its minimum national standards for the responsibilities from what was the Construction construction or modification of buildings. Industry Development and Regulatory Bureau, To this end, the proclamation provides with an objective of “improving the status of the guidance on: (a) administration and construction industry and making it competitive implementation of the national building as well as instrumental in the rapid social and code (i.e. application, planning consent, Ministry of Urban Development and Housing website: http://www.mwud.gov.et/web/guest/construction-industry-development-and-regfulato- 34 ry-bureau?p_p_id=56_INSTANCE_1bZ6&p_p_lifecycle=1&p_p_state=normal 33 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia plan review and approval, and permitting Challenges processes); (b) provisions for specific This section incorporates a review of prevalent land use, design and construction risks in the built environment. Based on the considerations to ensure life and structural review of the national legal framework on safety; (c) guidelines on water supply and building regulations for resilient buildings, four sanitation; (d) guidelines on fire safety; critical sets of challenges currently hamper the and (e) punishment for infringement of development of an effective regulatory process building regulations among public and and a culture of compliance. private sector building professionals. I. The need to enhance human and • Council of Ministers Regulation No. technical capacity. Regional and 243/2011 defines the procedures as well municipal building agencies, as well as as the roles and responsibilities of different sub-cities in Addis Ababa, are significantly entities in implementing the national understaffed and under-resourced. They building standards. The regulation lays are increasingly overwhelmed by the influx out the procedures for: (a) submission of building permit applications and the of application and plans; (b) planning growing complexity of building projects consent; (c) plan review and approval; (d) as city centers witness a significant development of high-rise buildings. These construction permitting; (e) inspection new buildings are typically in the range procedures; (f) quality assurance of of 10-20 story building structures and are building materials; (f) occupancy particularly vulnerable to fire risks. With permitting; (h) classification and role of this transformation of pace and complexity construction professionals; (i) governance in the urban construction sector, of appellate boards; (j) service fees for all there is growing need for construction stages of the regulatory process; and (k) professionals who are trained, experienced general performance-based standards for and accredited in order to ensure the water supply and sanitation as well as for safety of the workers and the buildings and fire safety. infrastructure that they construct (Box 2.2). 34 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness BOX 2.2. Need for Accredited Training and Worker Safety A common challenge highlighted in stakeholder interviews and focus group discussions was the lack of systematic qualitative capacity assessment of building professionals in the certification process. While significant progress has been made, in that the general public seeks the expertise of certified professionals, there is currently no exam to assess degree of knowledge of professional engineers and architects. Evaluation are simply based on education and number of years of experience. A balanced mechanism of training and accreditation is needed, which is not limited to academic institutions, but also include private sector specialized organizations or NGOs. The private sector should be engaged in developing a robust on- the-job training system that does not lead to a disproportionally high barrier to entry for practitioners. Another key challenge relates to worker safety. As a significant and growing proportion of the Ethiopian workforce is and will be working in the construction industry, the issue of worker safety is all the more important. Challenges posed by work-related injuries include lost productivity stemming from illnesses, disabilities and fatalities. Currently, there is limited research on occupational hazard in Ethiopia; but in a 2009 study carried out in Gondar City, the prevalence rate of construction work-related injuries in one year was 38.7 percent—largely attributed to falling, overexertion and/or being struck by falling objects. Youth aged 14-29 years of age represented the overwhelming majority of injuries (75 percent), while women represented nearly 40 percent. A similar study carried out in Addis Ababa in 2016 also found the prevalence rate of construction work-related injuries to be 38.3 percent—with most common injuries being cuts from sharp objects and falling. Women accounted for 37 percent of injuries. The lack of personal protective equipment (e.g. hardhats) and lack of safety training were largely attributed to such injuries. Source: Assessment carried out under Building Regulatory Review. II. Concerns with the adoption of new standards and limit the spread of building building standards. Ethiopia has informality. embarked on a commendable effort to adopt Eurocode structural design III. Limited effectiveness of quality standards. These building standards must assurance mechanisms. The core be appropriately adapted to the Ethiopian functions of land use, building permitting, hazard and socio-economic context to inspections and testing of building ensure that they are disseminated and products and materials have received understood by building professionals. An insufficient resources and prioritization in effective training and outreach strategy development and reform efforts in the past to craftsmen and tradesmen will be (Box 2.3). They must be improved in the critical to determine the success of the short term to prevent a rapid accumulation current transition toward new building of risks in the built environment. 35 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia BOX 2.3. Key Challenges Related to Quality Assurance Mechanisms Lack of quality checks in inspection process: Due to a lack of technical and human capacity as well as equipment for testing building materials, building inspections are largely carried out by checking against the approved plan (at the construction permit stage) and not the actual code itself. While the plan would have been approved by a public official, the majority of plans are reviewed against a checklist, leaving room for design errors to go unnoticed. Such a process leaves too much responsibility for ensuring building safety on the architect, when the plan review and inspection process is specifically meant to serve as a quality check to identify potential design and construction flaws on the part of the architect and contractor. Gaps in required hardware, software and fixed assets: During stakeholder consultations, regional- and city-level building departments noted a lack of sufficient equipment and transportation, and at times, IT hardware and software, to conduct needed plan review, quality oversight and inspection. Limited soils and building materials testing capacity: In terms of soils and building materials testing capacity, the Building Proclamation stipulates that testing must be provided at the regional level (i.e. testing facility, university), with guidelines, laws and standards (and associated training) provided by the federal ministry. When testing requirements are beyond regional capacity, materials may be sent to Addis Ababa.36 In visiting a local building department, it was noted that private consultants also provide testing. However, the lack of resources for regional testing facilities was highlighted as a challenge, including the lack of adequate equipment to conduct tensile testing of steel reinforcing bars and compressive strength testing of concrete for high-rise construction. Budget management: Insufficient program budgets at the regional and local levels have often resulted in prioritization of civil works or public housing investments, leaving limited resources for capacity building and fixed assets investments. At the local level, city administrations generally do not have sufficient funding to finance capacity building programs. The majority of operating budgets for regional building departments come from federal transfers. Lack of coordination among institutional work streams: Uncoordinated land use planning, land leasing and building permitting processes have often resulted in confusion and delays in receiving formal approval to build. Such challenges have often led individuals to build outside the formal, regulated process. The result has been structures built without any form of regulation— whether plan review or inspection.37 A disconnect with Local Development Plans (LDPs) was also highlighted as a challenge. Approved by Cabinet (Council of Ministers), LDPs lay out the long-term city development plan (e.g. building heights, zoning, future roads projects). However, such plans are not updated frequently (and at times, developed by consultants without a full understanding of the local situation), resulting in challenges as LDPs may inadvertently restrict construction of structures currently in demand. 35 36 35 In the case of Dire Dawa and Harar, there is one facility for testing concrete and soils. In Jigjiga there are plans for establishing a testing facility, but resources have yet to be secured. In Assosa, there is no such testing facility. 36 Upon receiving a land lease, construction must begin within six months of receiving a construction permit. However, works can experience delays either due to lack of finance or delays in receiving formal utility connection to service networks. 36 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness IV. Lack of hazard and risk information— growth of informal settlement by reducing More localized geotechnical and hazard compliance costs and making building information is required to ensure safe permits and inspections more effective design and construction as well as inform and transparent. the local contextualization and future revisions of the building codes. For this 2.4. Limited Emergency reason, current construction is seismically Preparedness and Response very weak, as a detailed understanding of As a part of the Technical Assistance, the World seismic hazard is lacking. Bank worked with the Government to assess the emergency response and preparedness While the above challenges focus on in four cities in 2016: Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, the core components of a building Hawassa, and Jigjiga. The goal of the assessment regulatory framework, larger institutional was to provide recommendations to improve and structural factors in Ethiopia are cities’ emergency preparedness capacity. The critical to develop a positive enabling assessment focused on (i) fire response capacity, environment for the construction of (ii) flood preparedness and response capacity, safer buildings. These factors include and (iii) earthquake alert, preparedness, and the present challenges in accessing response capacity. In general, it was found that land, ensuring acceptable levels of to improve disaster risk management (DRM) security of tenure, accessing housing in Ethiopian cities, the federal government’s and construction finance as well as National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk making funding mechanisms available Management (2013) and the City of Addis Ababa’s for building machinery and property Fire and Other Disasters Prevention, Preparedness, insurance services. Informal construction Response and Rehabilitation Strategy of represents the most significant challenge Ethiopia (FEPRA, 2015) must be “translated” for to effective regulatory compliance. The key implementation at the city level. Currently, city drivers of building informality are rooted officials have little knowledge of these national in a wide range of factors that include the strategies or their roles in implementation. The functioning of land and housing markets, assessment concluded that significant support is urbanization policies and broad socio- required to enable the cities’ implementation of economic factors that are far beyond both response and preparedness strategies. the reach of regulatory measures and fixes. Rather than directly addressing Compared to the other cities, Addis Ababa is building informality, this report helps considerably better positioned to prepare for advance the recommendations already and respond to emergencies and disasters. The provided in the Ethiopia Urbanization capital city has significantly more resources at its Review (jointly developed by the World disposal in terms of trained first responders (e.g., Bank Group and Cities Alliance). The firefighters, police, and medical professionals) Urbanization Review advocates the and emergency equipment (e.g., ambulances, overall improvement of urban planning fire trucks, search and rescue equipment, and and housing quality and an extended emergency communications equipment). Also, investment into informal settlement substantially more investment has been made in upgrading.37 A sound building regulation DRM systems in the city than in the other cities regime can contribute to containing the included in the assessment. The United States Ethiopia Urbanization Review: Urban Institutions for a Middle-Income Ethiopia. World Bank Group and Cities Alliance (2015) 37 37 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Agency for International Development (USAID) Key organizational structures (e.g., Disaster has funded a number of urban emergency and Risk Management Councils) that are required preparedness response initiatives, including to implement national DRM strategies have National Incident Management System (NIMS) not been established in Dire Dawa, Hawassa, training, development of a comprehensive risk or Jigjiga. NIMS, a cornerstone of the national assessment, development of a city emergency DRM strategy, enables a structured, coordinated plan, and training for firefighters. In many emergency management system that can aspects, Addis Ababa is well on its way towards effectively plan for, respond to, and recover implementing some of the strategies outlined from disasters and emergencies. At the city in the national DRM policy, and could serve as a level, neither city officials nor first responders model for other cities. have been trained in NIMS and understand how The emergency preparedness and response it functions. None of the three assessed cities capacity of the regional capitals of Dire Dawa, have established Emergency Operations Centers Hawassa, and Jigjiga is much less developed (EOCs), a critical component of NIMS during a than in Addis Ababa. All three cities lack basic disaster. emergency response resources (e.g., fire suppression, search and rescue, and emergency Capacity to Implement National communications equipment) and qualified Policy and Strategy personnel. Each also suffers shortages of trained Ethiopia’s current DRM program is primarily built firefighters (primarily due to a low salary scale), on rural hazards including drought and famine. personal protective equipment (PPE), and fire In each assessed city, officials noted that the suppression equipment (e.g., fire trucks). Dire lack of understanding of DRM at an urban level Dawa and Jigjiga rely heavily on the Ethiopian is the most pressing issue. Significant efforts Aviation Authority fire services based at their are required to transfer knowledge of general local airport. DRM terms, concepts, best practices, and policy Emergency response times in these three cities direction. tend to take significantly longer (and in some Ethiopia’s National Policy and Strategy on cases, emergency responders are not able to DRM (NPSDRM, 2013) originally designated provide assistance at all) than in the capital, the Ministry of Urban Development and where the average response time to a fire Housing as the lead institution with respect to emergency reportedly takes seven minutes. “urban infrastructure and building and other Existing early warning systems that tend to constructions related hazards and associated focus on drought and food insecurity in rural disasters and other urban disasters, including areas are not adapted for city use. Emergency communications (e.g., high-frequency fire” (p. 17). According to the policy, the radios) that enable emergency responders to responsibilities of a lead institution include the communicate and prioritize response activities following: “provide and coordinate response are largely unavailable. There is a complete lack operation when disasters relevant to their of knowledge or implementation of NIMS and no respective sectors and they are responsible capacity for interoperability among emergency for occur and affect more than one region and response agencies. Finally, the lack of available the response operation becomes beyond the data with which to conduct a proper risk capacity of the affected region” and “provide and assessment has resulted in part in inadequate coordinate response operation when a disaster public awareness of personal emergency occurring is likely to spread quickly and cover preparedness. vast areas” (NPSDRM, 2013). 38 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness The policy states that a “structure for the and if necessary decide on how contingency coordination of disaster risk management funds (if available) will be distributed. activities at all levels shall be created” (NPSDRM, 2013) that is “consistent with those duties Information to Identify and Assess given to the Federal Coordination structure Urban Hazards and they will be prepared by Region States” In Addis Ababa, a working group has recently (NPSDRM, 2013). In accordance with this completed a comprehensive risk profile. Other directive, Dire Dawa has recently established a cities have not, and most city officials said DRM coordination office that will act as a focal that they do not have enough information point and resource for all regional offices to or knowledge about urban risks. The local compile and mainstream DRM activities and Bureau of Agriculture does not provide have plans. Dire Dawa seems to be unique in its any information about urban risks and during ability to establish this coordination function. different consultations, the officials noted the Neither Hawassa nor Jigjiga have taken steps to need to provide this kind of information to city establish this office, indicating that they have not officials. yet received sufficient guidance from the central ministry on how to do so. Early Warning Systems at the City Level The national DRM policy also calls for the establishment of Disaster Risk Management Overall, there is no real early warning system at Councils at all levels—national, regional, and the city level. A highly-organized early warning municipal. These councils will have “oversight system established for drought and food responsibility regarding monitoring and insecurity collects information from the rural evaluation of the execution of the policy and its population, which is channeled through the implementation strategies” (NPSDRM, 2013). regional government to the national-level Early While none of the assessed cities had established Warning Unit. The cities are rarely engaged in this this council, all had established a similar body system. However, in Dire Dawa and Hawassa, the called the Emergency Response Taskforce. local governments have worked with Red Cross to strengthen warning systems at the community In each city, the Emergency Response Taskforce level, as presented in Table 2.4. is the primary emergency management authority. Taskforces are typically comprised of Flood Warnings police, health services, a DRM office (if it exists), At the national level, the DRM Commission’s representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture Early Warning Unit provides seasonal forecasts and Natural Resources, as well as the Ministry of for flooding that are circulated to regional Women’s Affairs, the city manager, the mayor, governments, but are often not provided to and the Red Cross. Fire services representatives city officials. Cities at risk of flash floods rely on are typically not involved. Officials in each city reports of impending problems from upstream reported that the taskforce meets regularly kebeles (wards) and woredas (districts,) usually to discuss emergency management issues, via mobile phone calls from police stations, as including seasonal weather issues and warnings well as weather forecasts from the National and upcoming major events such as festivals. Meteorology Agency. Officials from Dire Dawa When there is a disaster, the taskforce is and Hawassa reported that the current system called together by the mayor or the police normally enables them to have at least a 24- commissioner to discuss response and recovery, hour warning that they might experience a flash 39 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia flood.38 Once city officials are warned that there not working and would not work in the case of an might be a flood, they use sirens mounted in electricity outage. In addition to sounding sirens, strategic locations in the city to alert the public. police officers, Red Cross volunteers, and others However, city officials interviewed during the use megaphones to warn residents in drought- assessment reported that often the sirens were prone areas to evacuate. Table 2.4. Warning Systems at the Community Level (Based on field assessment carried out in June/July 2016) How much advance Emergency warning was provided Who gave the City How were warnings given? and date to the affected warnings? population? Sirens, megaphones, Police, Red Cross Dire Dawa Flash flood, 2016 24 + hours weather announcements members Ambulance sirens, loud Ambulances, Jigjiga Flash flood, 2016 2 hours speakers police Weather announcements, Hawassa Flood 24 hours Police phone text messages Earthquake Warnings No earthquake warning systems exist. Residents do not know what to do in an earthquake. Unfortunately, in April 2016 there was a breakdown in the communication system for the city of Jigjiga. The police station received a message at 38 12:00 a.m. that a flash flood was headed towards the city and was unable to wake everyone in time. A number of people drowned in the flood that descended on the city two hours later. 40 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Capacity for Emergency Fire located in Addis Ababa. In 2015, 2,220 students Response came through the academy (falling far short of its full capacity of 7,000 per year). To train at In the absence of a national fire authority, the full capacity, the facility needs more than 35 Fire and Emergency Prevention and Rescue instructors, but currently only 14 are available. Agency (FEPRA) in Addis Ababa fills a gap in Instructors from the academy sometimes travel strategy setting and technical expertise in Ethiopia. The agency’s current structure is based to other regions to train firefighters, but this on NIMS and uses South African fire standards. arrangement is considered insufficient by all FEPRA has significantly more resources at its concerned. disposal than the country’s regional capitals, FEPRA has prioritized improving and expanding and includes 38 fire trucks, 38 ambulances, training for firefighters. According to a FEPRA 1,200 employees (of which 650 are firefighters), official, due to a lack of training simulators, and 8 fire stations (with two more being added firefighters are not learning many of the tactics soon) with specific catchment areas (based on that could be employed to increase safety and interviews conducted in 2016). In addition to fire fire suppression efficiency. As part of the USAID prevention and suppression, the agency provides urban emergency preparedness and response emergency medical services and hazardous program, a training of trainers was held with the materials response. FEPRA is often asked to send objective of increasing the number of qualified personnel to help other cities due to their lack of firefighters across the country. FEPRA has been equipment and labor power. Often, however, by exploring the possibility of establishing a new the time firefighters arrive on scene, it is too late fire training academy on the outskirts of Addis to contain the damage. Ababa. According to the Fire and Other Disasters: The top priority in any emergency response Prevention, Preparedness, Response and should be the safety of first responders. The Rehabilitation Strategy of Ethiopia (2015), written importance of personal preparedness equipment by FEPRA, fire units will take a leadership role (PPE) is not recognized in Hawassa or Jigjiga, in emergency response and preparedness. In where it was found to be either inadequate or reality, with the exception of Addis Ababa, fire unavailable. In all the assessed cities, firefighters services staff at the city level play a minor role do not regularly use PPE in emergency response, in most areas of disaster management and are an indication of inadequate supervision and often uninvolved in any planning, prevention, training. While FEPRA does have a list providing response, or recovery activities. A majority of fire specifications for a protective bunker suit (see response units at city levels were found to be Annex A), no specific guidance on PPE has been unprepared for and ill equipped to respond to issued. It is best practice to wear self-contained fire emergencies. Significant investment will be breathing apparatuses when an atmosphere required to achieve the standards recommended immediately dangerous to life or health could in the strategy. develop, or smoke or particulate matter poses In each of the assessed cities, the number of a risk during external operations (including trained firefighters and shift supervisors is overhaul). In Hawassa, self-contained breathing insufficient. The turnover of firefighters is very apparatuses are available but not used. In Dire high because the working conditions are difficult Dawa, none are available. Fire trucks that were and the salary levels are too low. There is only examined had basic first aid kits, but did not one firefighter training academy in Ethiopia, contain most of the items required. 41 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Table 2.5 provides an overview of the PPE available to firefighters in three assessed cities. Table 2.5. Personal Protective Equipment Available to Firefighters in the Assessed Cities Personal Protective Equipment (minimum) Dire Dawa Hawassa Jigjiga Jacket Unavailable Available NA Helmet Unavailable Available NA Breathing apparatus Unavailable Available but not used NA Safety boots Available Available NA Gloves Unavailable Unavailable NA Pants Available Unavailable NA Source: Based on field assessment carried out in June/July 2016 Note: NA = Information not available FEPRA’s Fire and Other Disasters: Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Rehabilitation Strategy of Ethiopia (2015) calls for one fire truck for every 100,000 people, a goal that has not been achieved in any of the assessed cities. Table 2.6 provides an overview of the number of fire trucks compared to the population based on the parameters of the strategy. 42 Photo: Gimas © Shutterstock.com Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness Table 2.6. Number of Fire Trucks Compared to the Population, Based on Strategy Parameters 2037 population (CSA ) 2017 population (CSA) 2027 population (CSA) Number of fire trucks Number of fire trucks Number of fire trucks working fire trucks Current number of Number of trained Regional capitals Current ratio of needed (2017) needed (2027) needed (2037) firefighters to population firefighters Addis Ababa 650 38 3,433,999 1: 5,300 34 5,782,892 57 9,509,776 95 1 (broken Dire Dawa 15 293,000 1: 19,500 3 493,415 5 811,405 8 down) Hawassa 5 4 335,508 1: 67,000 4 564,999 6 929,123 9 2 (being Jigjiga NA 169,390 NA 2 285,255 3 469,092 5 procured) Source: Based on CSA (2013c) and author’s own calculation and field assessment carried out in June/July 2016 Note: CSA = Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia; NA = Information Not Available New fire trucks are maintained by the Dire Dawa’s 15 trained fire fighters attended the manufacturer (as per warranties), but no academy in Addis Ababa. In that city, there is one maintenance schedules are available for relatively new fire truck (7,000-liter, six-person older fire trucks or firefighting equipment capacity, designed for fast attack) that is broken (including CO2 and foam canisters). Fire down. While the fire truck is being serviced, the apparatus and equipment maintenance is a trained firefighters must rely on the fire trucks continuous challenge due to a lack of funds, stationed at the airport that belong to the Civil Aviation Authority. If a plane is on the runway, or parts, and knowledgeable mechanics. No fire departing or landing, the fire trucks cannot leave trucks are equipped with functioning radios. the airport. Firefighters rely exclusively on mobile phones to communicate with the dispatching police officer In Addis Ababa, the average response time and other firefighters. The assessment team was for fire emergencies is 7 minutes. During the unable to determine whether the water pumps assessment, it was clear that average response have high ground clearance for on- and off-road times in the regional cities routinely exceed use, often necessary in informal settlements. The 7 minutes depending on the availability of assessment team was also unable to determine firefighters and fire trucks. A major factor in the height of the fire trucks’ aerial ladders, a long response times is inaccessibility to affected detail not included in the FEPRA specifications. areas, particularly in informal settings. Given the construction of industrial parks Access to water for fire response is a challenge occurring in Dire Dawa and Hawassa, each in all of the assessed cities. In Dire Dawa, most city should ensure adequate fire suppression of the observed fire trucks had water and foam measures are in place for high buildings. capacity. When mixed with water, foam is a 43 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia useful fire suppressant and is particularly helpful There was no standard dispatch system used in areas with chronic water shortage. However, in the cities assessed. In many other countries the fire unit was unsure how many fire hydrants with less developed fire services, basic dispatch existed in the city, and suggested that additional systems are used to send resources to fire hydrants should be erected in strategic points. emergencies. Once notice of a fire is received by It is important to note that in Dire Dawa, the the department’s dispatch center (which could majority of fire response is done by Ethiopian be as rudimentary as a single cell phone passed Airlines, which has access to water at the airport. between dispatchers), questions need to be In Hawassa, water is pumped directly from a asked and decisions need to be made by the lake, as the location of city fire hydrants is not call taker in order to determine the nature of the known. incident and the resources required. Often there are no street names or addresses so the caller Urban Search and Rescue provides a general description of the area. In this Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is the general case, dispatchers must be familiar with the area term for a group of specialized rescue skills in order to properly describe it to the responding supplemented by search, medical and structural crews, and may mean that the assigned regions assessment resources combined in a mobile, be of a limited size. highly integrated team. Most cities requiring Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) trained teams The dispatcher may use a metric to in the local fire department. In Addis Ababa, autonomously select and send resources or FEPRA has 187 staff trained in USAR. Outside of make a personal determination. The dispatcher Addis Ababa, no other firefighters are trained may be housed in the fire station or somewhere in USAR. In Hawassa, which is at risk of seismic else. Bells, horns, and colored lights may be activity, there is no USAR capacity. used to signal to the waiting crews what type of Fire Warnings emergency to prepare for. The dispatcher may Before major festivals and holidays, Emergency sound a siren to call pre-trained volunteers to the Response Taskforce members try to remind city station. residents to practice fire safety while cooking Coordination with Industrial Parks big family meals. Residents are also reminded to and Other Large Institutions evacuate their homes and call the police if fire breaks out. There is no formal system to monitor Industrial parks are under construction in Dire and warn residents of fire threats. Residents Dawa and Hawassa. These parks represent large experiencing fire emergencies typically contact investments in the cities and are intended to the police, who then dispatch a fire truck to contribute to economic growth and stability. provide assistance. In some instances, fire units According to FEPRA’s Fire and Other Disasters: receive calls directly from the public. Methods Prevention, Preparedness, Response and for communicating a fire department’s contact Rehabilitation Strategy of Ethiopia (2015), information to the public vary. It is common industrial parks and other big institutions (such to see one or two phone numbers painted as the University of Hawassa) will establish throughout a neighborhood. There are also radio “their own fire and other disaster prevention, advertisements, postings in industrial buildings, preparedness, response, and rehabilitation and so on. centers, but also will have mutual understanding, 44 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness intertwined working relationships and used. If city officials do not understand how to shared logistical standards with other similar work with NIMS, an emergency response will be institutions within the cities and surrounding far less effective. None of the assessed cities have areas.” Dire Dawa and Hawassa, however, are EOCs, which must be established if NIMS is to unable to provide any emergency response succeed. support to the industrial parks or the University of Hawassa, and their city fire units have no Public Emergency Awareness and capacity to provide the leadership to negotiate Preparedness Programming a mutual understanding or working relationship In Addis Ababa, FEPRA has 80 staff available with industrial park representatives. to promote community awareness on fire risk reduction. Representatives from the risk National Incident Management reduction division work with the community System and the Establishment of and through industry to increase emergency Emergency Operations Centers preparedness using brochures. Emergency Consistent with internationally-recommended preparedness and fire prevention radio practices, Ethiopia has developed a National programming is regularly scheduled on FM Incident Management System to provide radio and television spots three times per week. standardized organizational structures, Volunteers who receive training from local functions, processes, and terminology for use development committees provide information at multiple levels of emergency response. This on fire incidents to the fire departments. system addresses the need for coordinated In Dire Dawa and Hawassa, multiple actors responses to all types of incidents and provides are engaged in public awareness and a flexible and scalable model to prepare for, preparedness activities at the city level. respond to, and recover from emergencies. However, all informants noted a lack of USAID has supported extensive NIMS training at general understanding about local hazards the national and regional levels of the Ethiopian and personal emergency preparedness. There Government. In accordance with best practices, is no coordinated approach for ensuring that the implementation of NIMS relies heavily on local residents understand what hazards exist the use of an Emergency Operations Center and how to prepare themselves to respond to (EOC), which provides the space and equipment them. For example, police and the Red Cross do (e.g., emergency communications, computers, minimal public education on traffic safety. and printers) needed for the coordination of an emergency response. In Hawassa, the Red Cross has done some public education on fire safety at the city level, as well Outside of Addis Ababa, none of the interviewed as flood preparedness in flood-prone areas of city officials or first responders knew about NIMS the city next to the lake. The DRM office based in in 2016. This lack of knowledge could have grave the Bureau of Agriculture provides emergency consequences for disaster response. In the event preparedness on drought and food insecurity in that an emergency exceeds a city’s response rural areas outside of the city. and recovery capacity, the NIMS structure would guide how additional emergency response The Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation resources and supports would be allocated and (ETC) sometimes sends out text messages to 45 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia subscribers providing weather warnings and To answer the question of what future hazards other important messages. An opportunity exists face these cities, a hazard mapping was to formally link the ETC with DRM authorities undertaken. The modeling shows that a large to provide more information on emergency majority of regional capitals are exposed to preparedness to the general public. flooding in or near the city, and fall within the regions exposed to severe agricultural drought. 2.5. Improving the Four of the five large regional capitals—Adama, Understanding of Hazards Dire Dawa, Hawassa, and Mekelle—are exposed and Preparedness in Regional to agricultural drought, flooding, earthquake Capitals risk, landslides (especially in Mekelle), and volcanic activity (except in Dire Dawa and Of the 10 cities participating in the CityStrength Mekelle). Bahir Dar is exposed to severe drought diagnostic assessment, all nine capital cities and and flooding, as well as landslides. Semera-Logia the Dire Dawa City Administration are growing is at the highest exposure to earthquakes, and rapidly in the numbers of their population and Jigjiga faces high river flooding, and exposure to the footprint of their built up areas. The capitals earthquakes and landslides. Assosa, Harar, and cities in growing regions such as Bahir Dar, Dire Gambella are exposed to flooding and drought. Dawa, Mekele, Adama, and Hawassa are growing as industrial and commercial centers. Each of While shocks and stresses are growing, cities are unprepared to plan and respond. City these cities are expected to at least triple in preparedness was assessed at two levels. population and house nearly a million people First, building safety was assessed through a by 2037 (World Bank, 2015b). All are exposed to study on building regulatory review. Second, flooding, fire and earthquakes, and face growing an independent assessment was carried on pressure from water scarcity, housing shortage, emergency preparedness capacity in selected unemployment and traffic accidents. Capital cities. The building regulatory review assessment cities in emerging regions such as Assosa, Harar, found that there are substantial existing risks in jigjiga, Semera Logia are experiencing very high the built environment, especially in informal and growth rates following rural-urban migration. non-engineered residential construction sectors They have similar urban stresses as cities in and in critical public buildings, including schools growing regions, with even less financial and and hospitals. Regulatory decisions made now technical capacity to cope. can have significant impact on the long-term 46 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities : Shocks, Stresses and Hazard Preparedness safety, productivity and resilience of the urban services are either non-existent or very limited. built environment. As Ethiopia urbanizes, low- The importance of personal preparedness rise building density will nevertheless increase equipment is not recognized in cities. In all the significantly and many more mid- and high- assessed cities, firefighters do not regularly use rise buildings will be built. Both of these types PPE in emergency response, an indication of of urban settings (dense low-rise and mid- to inadequate supervision and training. There is high-rise) will pose very significant challenges either no or inadequate warning for different for fire departments, which can best deal with hazards. There is no formal system to monitor this hazard through modern building codes and warn residents of fire threats, and there and regulation. Achieving effective building code compliance is not easy, but can pay are inadequate instruments and fire trucks for many dividends. Many challenges hamper the fighting increasing numbers of fire outbreaks development of an effective regulatory process in the regional capitals. Regarding flooding, the and a culture of compliance: (i) institutional National DRM Commission’s Early Warning Unit capacity constraints, given that regional and provides seasonal forecasts for flooding that municipal building agencies are significantly are circulated to regional governments, but are understaffed and under-resourced.; (ii) limited seldom provided to city officials. Cities at risk effectiveness of quality assurance mechanisms; of flash floods rely on mobile phone calls from (iii) lack of information on hazard risks which police stations reporting impending problems makes local contextualization and revision of from upstream kebeles (wards) and woredas building standards challenging; and (iv) new (districts). Often, the warning comes very late, building standards that have been adopted but without enough time to warn residents to safety. need support for implementation. Finally, there is no earthquake alert systems in To bolster disaster preparedness, a number of cities, and residents do not know what to do new policies and strategies exist. Dedicated should one occur. actions and investments are urgently needed to ensure effective early warning capacity The next chapter looks into local sectoral capac- and response systems in capital cities. An ity to cope with these shocks and stresses, and independent assessment carried out for this recommended priority actions to mainstream study found that capacity and instruments for shocks, stresses, and hazard management con- fire fighting and other emergency response siderations into urban development. 47 Photo: hecke61© Shuttersstock.com II. III. RESILIENCE CHALLENGES IN ETHIOPIAN CITIES: SECTORAL ASSESSMENTS Photo: itpow ©Shutterstock.com 3. Resilience Challenges in Key Sectors This chapter presents the findings of the sectoral reviews undertaken by sectoral specialists during the CityStrength diagnostic process. Using pre-diagnostic information, specialists from the World Bank, government and other participants developed a snapshot of the performance of urban systems in each of the 10 regional capitals in relation to the characteristics of resilience presented below (Figure 3.1). Better understanding the strengths and weaknesses in each of the sectors and their linkages with the other systems served to inform the overall prioritization process for recommendations and actions. Ten sectors were chosen for the review. Their selection was based on the Inception Workshop findings (November 2015) and reflect all pillars of the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing’s strategy – described in the Ethiopian Cities Prosperity Initiative (ECPI 2014). Sectoral specialists included the World Bank’s specialists and the lead technical officers of the participating city administrations, ULGs, regional bureaus, and local universities. The following sectors were reviewed and the findings are presented here: I. Urban Planning and Risk Management 3.1. Urban Planning and Housing 3.2. Urban Finance 3.3. Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change 3.4. Environmental Management II. Services and Infrastructure 3.5. Transport and Roads 3.6. Water Supply and Sanitation 3.7. Solid Waste Management 3.8. Energy III. Community and Local Economic Development 3.9. Local Economic Development 3.10. Community Development and Social Protection 51 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Figure 3.1. Five Key Qualities of Resilience: Robustness, Redundancy, Reflection, Coordination, and Inclusiveness Qualities of Urban Resilence Strenght of the Coo Sharing of information system t rdi and collaboration us na t ob ed R Using a system thinking approach, it is posible to consider how well each element of a city tive Inclus reflects qualities that are present in resilient flec Learning from past Engagement with a system. ive experiences range of stakeholders Re Redundant Spare capacity or back-up system Source: City Strength Methodology 52 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments I. Urban Planning and Risk understand and manage disasters and climate change impacts including increased awareness Management by city officials and the public about hazards, 3.1. Urban Planning and climate, and disaster risks; and improving Housing financial and technical support to regional capitals. Sectoral Overview Housing shortage was confirmed as one of the The regional capitals are growing rapidly main stresses across all ten cities. Demand and have put in place effective and for housing is increasing due to population inclusive urban planning processes and growth and the influx of migrants from the mechanisms. Collaboration across sectors and rural areas and from other cities. Supply of interjurisdictional levels, however, remains a housing is unable to keep up with demand. challenge for developing and implementing a The housing shortages result from constrained truly multi-sectoral urban plan. Furthermore, access to land, focus on asset ownership and systematic consideration of climate and insufficient support to rental housing. Access disaster risks in long-term land-use planning to land is further limited by the too-infrequent processes can be improved upon. Technical auctioning mechanism, and as a result, prices and financial resources to manage urban risks skyrocket. This has led to expanded informal are limited, hampering an effective response settlements, often in low-lying and less desirable to risks. For example, cities currently manage areas of the cities, increasing residents’ their growing flood risk by relocating informal vulnerability to flooding, diseases, and other settlements to safer areas and developing shocks. In response, the cities are taking steps retaining walls around waterways, neither of to manage housing shortages, including making which are effective long-term responses. In this housing regulations pro-poor and regularizing planning context, key recommendations for informal settlements. All cities will benefit urban resilience include: improving coordination from proactively strengthening rental markets, across sectors, jurisdictions, and governmental ensuring access to land for the urban poor, and levels; developing the institutional structure to improving living conditions in existing housing. 53 Photo: John Wollwerth © Shutterstock.com Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Urban Planning and Housing Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Expansion of informal Urban Planning settlements • Strengthen interjurisdictional coordination • Lack of consideration of hazards and climate impacts in urban • Strengthen institutional capacity around DRM and climate change planning • Strengthen financial and technical capacity • Constrained access to land • Develop a national urban policy think tank • Focus on asset ownership rather Housing than rental housing • Strengthen city rental market • Build housing cooperatives accessible to urban poor • Increase land supply and access for the urban poor • Improve living conditions in existing housing Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshop 54 Photo: DavorLovicic © iStock.com Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Policy and Sectoral Context and housing cooperatives–differ from city to The Second Growth and Transformation Plan city, and can depend, in some cases, on plot 2014/15–2020 (GTP II) provides an overarching size. Ethiopia’s Integrated Housing Development development framework acknowledging the Program (IHDP) is the primary government central role of cities in achieving middle-income program focusing on home ownership and it status. Access and allocation of land for urban features government-built condominiums. housing differs across scales of governance and Ethiopia’s urban population is mostly intended use. Access is regulated by the federal concentrated in Dire Dawa, Adama and Mekelle, Land Lease Proclamation (No. 721), revised in 2011. Regional governments have their own lease followed by Hawassa and Bahir Dar. The proclamations and regulations, which contain proportion of migrants in seven cities in 2007 the details of handling of the expansion and ranged between 52 percent and 72 percent recognition of informal housing. City regulations (Figure 3.2), indicating that in the majority of guide the release of land for residential housing. these cities, more than half of the population are Further, delivery mechanisms for urban migrants. It is projected that by 2037, the major development and housing—allocation, auctions, cities will house nearly a million people each. Figure 3.2. Migrant Population in Regional Capitals, 2007 (%) Addis Ababa 47.6 Semera‐Logia 71.6 Mekelle 52.4 Jigjiga 25.5 Hawassa 60 Harar 43.3 Gambella 58.8 Dire Dawa 29.6 Bahir Dar 55.6 Assosa 68.1 Adama 59.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80   Source: CSA 2007 55 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Informal settlements represent a challenge relatively higher proportion of their land area associated with urbanization, particularly due to under informal settlements than the other cities the higher vulnerability to fire and other hazards (Figure 3.3). Informal settlements are generally associated with the high density of housing. found on marginal lands, such as quarry sites, Informal settlements are found in all the capital cities, with Jigjiga (14.4 percent), Adama (11.6 river banks, and precarious areas and are highly percent), and Harar (8 percent) each having a vulnerable to disasters such as flooding. Figure 3.3. Proportion of Land Under Informal Settlement in Regional Capitals, 2015 (%) Semera Mekele Jigjiga Hawassa Harar Gambella Dire Dawa Bahari Dar Assosa Adama 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16   Source: (MUDHCo ESCU2015) 56 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Land-use classification provides the basis percent built-up area (with a possibility of for urban development. The GoE’s Urban adopting a 30-25-45 ratio in the case of older Land Development and Management Policy settlements) to address problems related to and Strategy, among other regulations, has mobility and access to public spaces. On average, established land-use proportions in urbanized regional capitals have 22 percent of their land areas as follows: 30 percent park and greenery, dedicated to infrastructure and 14 percent to 30 percent roads and infrastructure, and 40 green spaces (Figure 3.4). Figure 3.4. Land-Use Composition in Regional Capitals, % of Total Area (2015) 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Mekelle Bahir Dar Adama Jigjiga Assosa Hawassa Gambella Harar Dire Dawa Semera Average Residential  % Commercial % Industrial % Green Space % Infrastructure  %   Source: (MUDHCo ESCU 2015) 57 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia How resilient is the sector? approach to urban growth, factoring in potential Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, physical shocks and stresses and encouraging proactive and socio-economic planning processes are mitigation measures. Multiple strategies are in well-coordinated, legally enforced, inclusive, and place to ensure that primary urban development cross-sectoral. Key stakeholders are involved goals can be achieved in the face of changing in aligning plans with sector priorities and to demographics, urbanization rates, or economic ensure that the interests of all societal groups shifts. are taken into consideration. Coordination between departments and other agencies Qualities of Resilience: Evaluation on the five enables the use of existing knowledge and data qualities of resilience found the regional capitals across the city to better understand current to be progressing in being inclusive in the and future vulnerabilities. Urban planning and planning process, as well as in learning from past development ensures a holistic and long-term experience. Quality Description Robustness Although every city has prepared plans to address vulnerabilities, technical and financial constraints prevent their implementation. Infrastructure is often vulnerable, with limited local capacity to inspect buildings and infrastructure for consideration of shocks and stresses. Generally, the public and urban officials have limited awareness of hazards and risk, and there is little public demand for preventive action. Coordination Overall, coordination is good during plan preparation. However, coordination can still be improved upon during plan revision, implementation, and monitoring. More inter- sectoral coordination is needed on infrastructure planning, implementation and in public consultation on plan revisions. Inclusiveness The regional capitals all have mechanisms for inclusiveness in their planning processes. However, there is still room for improvement in translating inclusive mechanisms into practice. Municipalities generally struggle to address informal settlements. This is changing as regional capitals move to regularize informal settlements, which can be seen as a form of upgrading. Redundant Generally, the regional capitals do not have the system redundancies essential for managing shocks or stresses. Technical staff and financial resources are limited, and most cities do not have the capacity to handle fire, flood, earthquakes, or losses of power. Several regional capitals have alternative routes to hospitals, but cities’ monocentric design can delay emergency response and even minor traffic accidents can cause gridlock. Reflectiveness Nearly all the capital cities have revised their urban and structural plans to accommodate rapid urbanization, informed by past experience. Dire Dawa, Harar, Gambella and Jigjiga are working to reduce settlements in flood-prone areas. Other cities, including Bahir Dar and Assosa are building soil barriers and digging ditches to reduce flooding. A fire outbreak in Hawassa led the city to strengthen their fire department, training officers, providing more fire engines, having a DRM plan, and increasing public awareness about earthquake safety. Bahir Dar and other cities changed to non-flammable building materials for market sheds. As cities continue to grow, some regional capitals are becoming increasingly responsive by promoting rental units, adopting pro-poor regulatory policies, and increasing the minimum plot size to accommodate multistory buildings (see Box 3.2). Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 58 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments BOX 3.2. Stories of Innovation and Reflection in Urban Development and the Housing Sector Three narratives indicate reflectiveness and innovation taking place in urban development and housing. 1. Making urban plans more responsive to a quickly changing environment Prior to 2006, cities’ masterplans were considered too rigid to adapt to the changing urban environment. Improvement came with Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) in 2006, encouraging an integrated, cross- sectoral approach to planning, but still requiring strict vetting at the regional government level. In 2008, the federal Urban Planning Proclamation 574/2008 changed the planning framework again by introducing a two-tier planning framework at the city level—a structural plan for the city that is more flexible because it provides a broad framework for planning, and local development plans where the details are developed for two or three neighborhoods at a time. 2. Encouraging private formal rental units In Hawassa, the city administration is anticipating a boom in housing demand from a 300-acre industrial zone under development. With 10 companies committed, the city is expecting 50,000 more jobs. To relieve the housing pressure and encourage densification within the city limits, a Hawassa pilot project is encouraging the construction of rental units in one sub-city, Adis Katama. The CityStrength diagnostic revealed that a common but incorrect perception is that there is no developable land inside the cities, hence the horizontal expansion into the peripheral areas. However, as there seems to be no minimum or maximum Floor-to-Area Ratio (FAR) (ratio of built-up area to total plot size) at the plot level, more innovation related to this regulation could be an avenue to explore. 3. Adapting the housing cooperatives regulations to make them more pro-poor In the city of Assosa, the housing cooperative mechanism is being used to develop pro-poor housing. Any poor person who does not have a residence in the city can form a cooperative with nine other people (minimum 10 people in a cooperative) and request land from the city. Every person in the cooperative receives 260 m2 (reduced from the minimum plot size of 350 m2 for this pro-poor objective) within which the minimum built-up area within each plot is 16 m2. Every person needs clearance from their kebele administration to confirm their eligibility. They pay 20 percent of the land cost upfront and at that point receive a construction permit and a communal title. Once construction has reached 50 percent, each person in the cooperative receives a title deed. Thus far, Assosa has given land to 1,028 people through this cooperative mechanism. The reduction of the minimum plot size is considered pro-poor because it reduces the minimum cost of land available to buy. The challenge is the cost of the land and extent to which a cooperative consisting of the lowest income group can afford the 20 percent upfront fee. (Source: City Strength Diagnostics workshops) 59 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations 3. Increase land supply and help meet regularization backlog by using strong Urban Planning control measures, such as kebele 1. Strengthen coordination across sectors, verification to prevent misallocation. jurisdictions, and government levels during plan implementation, by 4. Improve living conditions in existing housing establishing a representative taskforce to units by in-situ upgrading in kebele housing facilitate coordination and improve public and informal settlements. consultation in all planning actions. 3.2. Urban Finance 2. Strengthen institutional capacity for Sectoral Overview resilience across all levels of government by identifying the necessary resources to The regional capitals have strong municipal build capacity in handling multi-hazards budgeting processes and mechanisms in place and by preparing a strategy to create to ensure stakeholder inclusiveness. Overall, awareness among citizens and officials. however, there is limited resilience in municipal finance systems due to weak coordination, 3. Financial resources can be strengthened no allowance for contingency budgets to by: (i) determining budget and investment deal with shocks and stresses, and a limited requirements for enhanced resilience and ability to collect, improve, and utilize the local identifying sources of external funding, and (ii) implementing revenue enhancement government’s own-source revenues. Available plans. data on population, revenue potential, and meteorology are insufficient to effectively 4. Develop a national level urban policy “think inform budget planning, management, and tank” to incubate, foster, and centralize policy-making processes. A majority of the cities thinking about low-carbon and resilient face large-scale urban infrastructure deficits, urbanization in Ethiopia. The work of and their resilience is limited by inadequate the think tank can contribute to the maintenance of existing infrastructure, weak or development and updating of master plans. no contingency planning, and lack of insurance arrangements for existing infrastructure. In the Housing event of a major shock or stress, typically cities 1. Strengthen city rental markets by resort to the regional or federal government supporting rental unit construction for help, since they have far greater resources at scale, reduce tax on rental income than the cities themselves, and only the federal (currently set at 25 percent), and use government has borrowing capacity. The cities improved kebele rental housing to meet will benefit from improved coordination across short-term demand. sectors and levels of government, reserving 2. Foster housing cooperatives to increase emergency funds, and collecting more municipal access to land for housing by the urban revenue. The regional capitals are doing better poor and reduce speculation, following the in being inclusive and transparent in their practice in Assosa. budgeting process. 60 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Urban Finance Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Weak coordination • Establish cross-sectoral coordinating mechanisms for resource prioritization and allocation • Limited local government’s own- source revenues • Improve revenue collection • No contingency budgets to deal with • Establish contingency budget and emergency resource shocks and stresses mobilization • Large-scale urban infrastructure • Improve budgeting for capital expenditures and potential deficits, weak maintenance of existing municipal borrowing for large infrastructure. Improve the infrastructure maintenance of existing infrastructure Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 Policy and Sectoral Context demographic conditions and differences in the economic structure of different regional states The primary sources of revenue at the in Ethiopia, but also due to other factors. One of municipal level are: (1) state revenue collected the main challenges reported by stakeholders by municipalities on behalf of the states (this is the limited autonomy over setting tax rates revenue belongs to the states); (2) municipal and fees for revenues. Municipal capacity to revenue collected by ULGs, also known as own- pursue revenue enhancement is generally weak. source revenue for financing services; (3) fiscal Gambella, Semera-Logia, Hawassa, and Jigjiga transfer grants from the regions to the ULGs, face weaknesses in municipal revenue collection where the federal government transfers funds and may need additional support to cope with to the regions based on certain parameters (e.g., urban resilience challenges. ULGDP II is providing population, sectoral performance); and (4) direct incentives for improved municipal revenue support to ULGs from the federal government management, and results are evident. Large through programs such as the Urban Local cities such as Dire Dawa, Mekelle, Bahir Dar and Government Development Program II (ULGDP-II). Adama, have a relatively large economic base Municipal revenues include taxes on real and hence greater potential to generate more property (land lease, land rent, residence tax), revenues. taxes on fuels and utilities, taxes on telephones and other electronic services, environmental How Resilient is the Sector? protection taxes, and taxes on business. In Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, the Ethiopia, municipal revenue assignments are municipal finance system is able to withstand regulated by state legislations and regulations, large-scale shocks to revenues or unforeseen and vary from state to state. Land lease revenues needed expenditures through reserving and are supposed to be administered and collected flexible budget reallocation mechanisms. Budget in accordance with a federal proclamation. planning, management, and policymaking are There is significant variation in municipal based on actual performance data, including revenue effort and collection across regions, information on damage and loss from previous partly because of differences in geographic and shocks or stresses. A resilient city has a municipal 61 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia finance system that has sufficient autonomy to ensuring that the allocation of city resources manage its resources and coordinates across reflects community priorities. departments to ensure spending leads to results towards the city’s priorities. It creates a stable Qualities of Resilience: Evaluation on the five and informed investment environment that qualities of resilience found the regional capitals allows for the involvement of diverse actors and to have robust municipal budgets, with inclusive supports an inclusive approach to budgeting, budgeting processes. Quality Description Robustness There are strong municipal budgets that clearly distinguish between operating and capital budgets. All cities allocate at least the minimum 10 percent of their budgets to capital expenditures. As in many other intergovernmental fiscal structures in developing countries, there is a mismatch between expenditure responsibilities and revenue assignments, which are often financed through intergovernmental transfers from the federal government. There is a need to improve the fiscal transfer system by allowing greater autonomy for the local governments to collect, improve, and utilize their own-source revenues. Coordination There are weak coordination mechanisms with other sectors across all cities, though Dire Dawa, Bahir Dar, and Adama are relatively better than other capital cities. Inclusiveness In all cities, there are well-established mechanisms for inclusiveness in the budget process, and functioning processes allow for participation and transparent planning. The presence of a large informal sector makes tax collection challenging. Redundant Though cities have own-source revenue handles available to them, flexibility is limited. Furthermore, municipal taxes appear underutilized as a key funding source. Normally, there is no contingency budget to deal with shocks and stresses. Reflectiveness One of the main challenges identified by the local stakeholders is the lack of data on local revenues to enable the cities to establish a reasonable revenue base. Cities have asset management databases though these are not updated and hamper municipal revenue collection. Proper revenue databases are necessary to help the cities enhance their revenue management. There are also inadequacies in data/information collection on population, revenue potential, and meteorology. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 Recommendations 3. Improve contingency planning or emergency preparedness in resource 1. Establish cross-sectoral coordinating mechanisms for resource prioritization and mobilization. Develop contingency plan allocation. and budget based on better monitoring of shocks and stresses, and a local Climate 2. Improve revenue collection from municipal and Disaster Risk Management Plan. revenue, particularly in large cities such as Dire Dawa, Adama and Bahir Dar that 4. Place more emphasis on budgeting have a large economic base. Train more for capital expenditures and potential officials and improve data management to municipal borrowing for large build administrative capacity for revenue infrastructure. Improve maintenance of management, planning, and budgeting. existing infrastructure. 62 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Federal government actions can support challenge facing regional capitals is that there intergovernmental fiscal systems by improving is no DRM institutional framework at the urban clarity of the revenue and expenditure local government level. Key DRM functions assignments across levels of government, and are found at regional levels including warning creating incentives to collect state revenue by systems (especially for drought), response to drought-affected areas, contingency planning, establishing clear guidelines of how cities will earthquake resistant damage (ERD) assessments, benefit from it. The regional governments can and awareness building. However, such efforts support this by: (1) providing backstopping focus primarily on rural areas, with no or very and capacity building support for revenue limited support for urban areas. The cities will enhancement; (2) putting in place a legal benefit from undertaking systematic disaster and framework for municipal finance; (3) supporting climate risk assessments, risk mitigation, and revenue administration and enforcement; preparedness activities. (4) supporting creation of sector-specific All the regional capitals face growing impacts strategy, management, and implementation from urban flooding, mostly due to clogged plans; and (5) disbursing fiscal transfers to city drains and obstructed natural drainage administrations on a timely basis, including patterns of the cities. Water scarcity, in spite reporting on time. of being categorized as a stress, has reached a level of “shock” in cities such as Harar, which is spending a majority of its local revenue on 3.3. Disaster Risk Management bringing drinking water from Dire Dawa and whose residents’ survival now depends on Sectoral Overview finding other sustainable sources of drinking The cities are inclusive in their emergency water supply. All the regional capitals also face response and have been learning partially from growing incidents of fire, especially in informal past disaster events. More efforts are needed markets, and have very limited capacity to to keep pace with growing populations and an manage fire response. Mekelle, Hawassa, Adama, increasing number of disaster events. The cities and Semera-Logia face seismic risk but are not are trying to identify and plan for settlements prepared for earthquakes. Adama, Jigjiga, Assosa at risk of flooding, but the current approach and Semera-logia all face landslides. Volcanic relying mostly on relocation and retention activities occur near Adama and Hawassa, which walls is not effective in the long run. There can put their access to Addis Ababa at risk during is no dedicated budget for DRM. The biggest volcanic eruptions. 63 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Disaster Risk Management Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Growing flooding, fire and other disaster • Develop risk mitigation actions for city’s key risks impacts • Establish DRM units in cities • No DRM institutional framework • Develop a dynamic risk information system and • No systematic collection of disaster and improve early warning and response climate data • Incorporate climate and disaster risks into integrated • Risk information is not considered in land land use and infrastructure master plans use, services and infrastructure planning Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 Policy and Sectoral Context: Details on the DRM Such a mechanism and infrastructure is based policy context are included in Chapter 2. on an integrated citywide risk assessment and is developed to prepare for, limit, and How Resilient is the Sector? recover from expected shocks. In a resilient city, Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, the disaster risk information is a necessary foundational risk management system combines a well- element for institutional decision making functioning and inclusive disaster preparedness across sectors and in particular for budget and and emergency response mechanism with strategic decisions for territorial planning and effective disaster prevention infrastructure. management of the built environment. Qualities of Resilience Quality Description Robustness There are no systematic DRM interventions in the cities and no institutional DRM framework in the cities. Coordination Overall, coordination is weak across all cities, horizontally across sectors, and vertically from national to regional and local levels, constraining effective planning and implementation of DRM actions at all levels. Inclusiveness All cities mentioned that the most poor and vulnerable get fair support during post-response crises. Stakeholder participation in risk mitigation activities is limited. Redundant There is no consideration to develop redundant infrastructure for critical buildings such as hospitals and emergency operation centers. Many informal settlements and markets have no access roads, making emergency response difficult. Reflectiveness Many cities mentioned that they have learned from past flooding events to prepare before the rainy season or relocate at-risk populations to safe grounds. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 64 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments BOX 3.3. Disaster Risk Management Pillars The regional capitals focus on post-disaster response, with many of the cities establishing a coordination committee under the mayor after an emergency such as flooding occurs. The cities take some preventive activities that are limited to cleaning the drains before the rainy season, but that strategy is not very successful given the variability of rain. Below is an assessment of cities across five pillars of DRM: 1. Risk assessment: Cities prepare obstruction maps showing areas prone to historical flooding for planning purposes, but hydrological modeling showing floodplains are not prepared, and maps showing areas facing recurrent flooding are not updated, for example, in Dire Dawa and Jigjiga. Seismic, landslide, and volcanic risk maps are not available in any of the cities. 2. Risk mitigation: Areas prone to flooding are considered in urban and sectoral planning in principle, though constraint maps do not reflect the current rapidly changing urban landscape. The most popular preventive activity is to relocate at-risk populations (settled in buffer zones/flood plains) to safer areas, though in almost all cases, the affected population returns to risk areas because of their livelihood. Other popular initiatives in cities such as Dire Dawa are to create flood retention walls, but these are costly to build and maintain, and it is uncertain if they can perform well without an integrated solution looking into better solid and liquid waste management. 3. Disaster risk finance and insurance: In urban areas risk insurance is not available to businesses, and the cities do not provide for contingency budgets. By contrast, in rural areas crop and livestock insurance programs are available, such as the HARITA/R4 crop weather index insurance, the EPIICA crop weather insurance, RREP crop weather index insurance, and IBLI livestock index insurance. Moreover, a meso- level livestock insurance program is planned for 2017. 4. Preparedness and response: Contingency plans do not exist at the local government level, and the most popular approach to flooding or other emergency response is to set up steering committees under the mayor to coordinate post-disaster relief and recovery. Some cities, such as Dire Dawa, were able to set up an effective early warning system with the help of NGOs but are now facing budget constraints. 5. Recovery and reconstruction: The focus has been on relief after a disaster. The cities divert budgetary resources from other sectors to support relief and in some cases to provide recovery support. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops 65 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations incorporate seismic risk mitigation in buildings and infrastructure. 1. Establish DRM units under the capital city mayors to strengthen DRM planning for • Improve fire response capacity by all phases of DRM (risk assessment, risk providing financial and technical mitigation, risk finance and insurance, support to fire services. preparedness and response, recovery and reconstruction). 3.4. Environmental Management 2. Develop a dynamic risk information system, including strengthening early Sectoral Overview warning systems. In all the cities, the environmental protection authorities are faced with big challenges to 3. Incorporate climate and disaster risks into implement the mandate because of limited integrated land use and infrastructure institutional capacity, budget and human master plans. resources. This has resulted in projects without 4. Develop risk mitigation actions for city’s appropriate consideration of their adverse key risks: impacts on the environment and the public. In addition, there is an absence of regulations • Pay special attention to water scarcity and standards. The capacity to measure crisis such as in Harar, with a view to levels of pollution and fine those who are developing sustainable water supply impacting the environment significantly will and avoiding water stress. be of paramount importance for cities that will house industrial parks. There are significant • Develop integrated flood risk coordination challenges between government management program and raise levels, particularly, between regional authorities awareness on flooding. This should and the municipalities. There is also room for include developing flood risk maps. improvement in the engagement of community • Develop better seismic risk maps, and members when carrying out planning activities. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Environment Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Limited capacity to implement environmental • Increase capacity to enforce environmental regulations regulations at all levels • Technical and financial constraints, data • Establish a protocol to enhance coordination management between environmental protection bureaus with other sectoral bureaus • Lower priority accorded to environmental considerations • Awareness creation Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshop, 2016 66 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Policy and Sectoral Context in development and city planning and decisions which may affect them and their environment. The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (formerly the Environment How Resilient is the Sector? Protection Authority) is responsible for Resilience vision: In a resilient city, implementing Proclamation 299/2002 at the environmental considerations are effectively national level which calls for the mainstreaming mainstreamed into sectoral plans, programs and of environmental and social concerns into investments. Stability of the urban ecosystem development projects and introduces is maintained through guided growth and Environment Impact Assessments as a tool to implementation of environmental regulations. fulfill the mandate. Regional Environmental Environmental protection agencies monitor Protection Authorities are responsible for changes to the environment and are able to implementing the Proclamation at the regional take early action to prevent environmental and city level. Woreda environmental protection degradation. In a resilient city, natural resources offices are charged with the responsibility of and ecosystems are managed as public goods, integrating environmental concerns at the including beyond municipal boundaries, and are local level. In addition, the Proclamation used to buffer impacts of shocks and stresses. was designed as a tool to help promote Accessibility and knowledge about effective use administrative transparency and accountability, of ecosystem services is encouraged among the involve the public and more importantly to give poor as a means of reducing food scarcity and a voice to communities impacted by initiatives improving livelihood options. Qualities of Resilience Quality Description Robustness Participants reported that the robustness of the environment sector is challenged by the weak enforcement at the city level of the Proclamation that introduced environmental impact assessments. Furthermore, there is inadequate funding for effective functioning of the sector. Coordination The level of coordination among the regional capitals varies. There is a need to improve coordination with sectoral offices such as transport, water and sanitation, and energy agencies, as well as coordination between the municipalities and regional EPAs. Inclusiveness The Proclamation that introduced ESIAs requires the consultation of stakeholders in the impact evaluation process. However, public participation is limited due to barriers in access to information and inadequate financial resources. Some efforts are being undertaken in different cities: Adama established a mechanism to receive feedback from stakeholders, particularly from project-affected communities. Dire Dawa, Harar and Jigjiga also involve some stakeholders in decision-making processes. Redundant In all the cities consulted, there were limited alternatives in the provision of services related to the environment sector. For example, if the regional EPA is unable to provide support to projects, sectoral offices were not equipped to cover the gap. Reflectiveness In all the cities, planning processes are hampered by lack of information/data. There is no baseline data or measures to assess changes in the pollution level and thus, no action is taken against industries that pollute. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshop, 2016 67 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations particular attention should be given to the coordination between the municipalities 1. Enforce environmental regulations. This and regional EPAs. Cities can consider should be given a high priority due to the the creation of an environmental role of the environment in the resilience oversight body to examine environmental of the city. For example, the discharge of integration in all major infrastructure industrial waste into the main lake in Bahir initiatives. It is highly recommended that Dar affects a valuable resource for the sectoral institutions in the cities establish functioning of the city. environmental planning units in the 2. Allocate sufficient resources to make the long run, to ensure the mainstreaming sector robust and reflective. Baseline of environmental considerations in all data is not available to measure changes activities. in pollution levels. Adequate funding will 4. Increase awareness among policy makers allow the establishment of laboratories so they give the environment sector in each of the regional environmental enough attention. Awareness creation protection authorities for the purpose of should focus on the importance of monitoring pollution and changes in the mainstreaming environmental concerns environment on a regular basis. Additional upstream in saving the scarce resources staff is also needed for effective monitoring of the country and enable projects to be of the environment, which also requires sustainable and resilient. All stakeholders capacity building efforts. in cities should be actively engaged in 3. Establish a protocol to enhance the Environmental and Social Impact coordination between environmental Assessment (ESIA) process, and more protection bureaus with other sectoral broadly in the ESIA dialogue from the bureaus. Even though coordination can bottom up, given that it’s essential also be improved between the Regional in decentralizing control over the EPAs and different line Ministries, environment and improving resilience. 68 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments II. Services and Infrastructure do not facilitate access, especially during fire or flooding for emergency vehicles. Most of the 3.5. Transport and Roads cities have a monocentric form, which increases traffic congestion and accidents. Another Sectoral Overview growing stress is related to increasing heat- All the regional capitals face poor traffic related impacts on drivers, which are causing management and a high rate of traffic accidents. greater numbers of accidents in at least one Different and viable modes of transport (as an city, Semera-Logia. Planning for the transport alternative to the traditional three-wheeler and roads sector is currently not based on risk transport) are not available for basic intracity assessments or effectively aligned with land-use mobility, exacerbating the rate of traffic plans. Nearly all cities are in need of improved accidents, congestion, and complicating traffic management, public transport provision, emergency response. Limited storm water improved management and oversight of public drainage and burgeoning informal settlements transport services within the city, improved also affect traffic congestion. A number of cities and comprehensive approach to drainage, and such as Mekelle and Harar have old, historic improved urban planning and development centers or market areas with street patterns that control. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Transport and Roads Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Poor traffic management and lack of • Establish traffic management units, and improve emergency access to most vulnerable areas emergency access in most vulnerable areas • High rate of traffic congestion • Develop a public transport program • Poor storm water drainage and flooding • Develop geocoded drainage master plans for all cities Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 Policy and Sectoral Context However, it is unclear what net effect these investments have had on the cities’ resilience. Transport connectivity across Ethiopia It is likely that the development of the roads increased substantially during the Road Sector has had mixed effects. Most of the regional Development Program (RSDP) (1997-2014). The capitals are struggling with by-products of traffic capital cities have substantial road coverage, congestion such as traffic accidents. For all the but the proportion of paved roads varies from economic benefits, it is likely that the RSDP has 7.3 percent (Jigjiga) to 49 percent (Harar). The also contributed to these stresses in at least impact of the RSDP on regional cities is less some, if not all, of the regional capitals.39 well understood. There is some evidence that the cities have benefited economically from The length of roads in the regional capitals that investment, particularly in the growth of indicates that Bahir Dar, Jigjiga, Adama, the manufacturing sector (Shiferaw et al. 2013). Hawassa, and Dire Dawa have substantial road For example, the team heard that in Mekelle, a town with substantial and chronic water table shortages, some water-intensive manufacturing indus- 39 tries, including soft drink and beer manufacturing, have either set up operations or are looking to do so. It is likely that improved road access resulting from the RSDP was a major factor in these locational decisions. 69 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia coverage, while on the other end of the spectrum average proportion of paved roads in the regional are Mekelle, Assosa, and Gambella (Figure 3.5). capitals is 32 percent, which is lower than the The proportion of paved roads in the regional proportion of paved roads in middle-income capitals varies significantly (Figure 3.6). The countries (49 percent) (MUDHCo ESCU 2015). Figure 3.5. Length of Total Roads and Paved Roads (Km) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mekelle Bahir Dar Adama Jigjiga Assosa Hawassa Gambella Harar Dire Semera Dawa Length of total road (km) Length of paved road   Source: (MUDHCo ESCU 2015) Figure 3.6. Proportion of Paved Roads Semera Dire Dawa Harar Gambella Hawassa Assosa Jigjiga Adama Bahir Dar Mekelle 0 10 20 30 40 50 60   Source: (MUDHCo ESCU 2015) 70 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments How Resilient is the Sector? sector are based on an assessment of past shocks and stresses and are closely aligned Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, the transport system offers multiple modes of transport to its with other departmental plans and overall key users to ensure the continuity of mobility in the priorities of the city. event of disruptions, and to ensure access to Qualities of Resilience transportation for all population groups. It takes a flexible approach and proactive coordination An assessment on the five qualities of resilience with other agencies to be able to divert user shows that the sector is comparatively inclusive traffic to different modes of transport based and reflective in planning and learning from on changing conditions. In a resilient city, the experience. However, the system is less resilient planning for and investments in the transport to growing hazard exposure and climate impacts. Quality Description Robustness Transport infrastructure and operations are constrained by limited management, maintenance, and operations, hampering the ability of the sector to withstand shocks and stresses and to provide services throughout the city and informal settlements. Poor traffic management in most of the cities included in the assessment results in high rate of traffic accidents, high levels of congestion (for size of city and number of vehicles), at-risk emergency response, and a perception of greater need for investment in additional road infrastructure than may be warranted. Most cities identified flash flooding associated with heavy rains and poor drainage as a significant issue. The highly monocentric form of nearly all of the participant cities which feature a central area of economic and cultural activity while residential and industrial zones develop in concentric circles around it, already creates challenges for transport service provision. With the expected future growth of the cities, if the monocentric form remains uncorrected, these challenges will get worse. Coordination Responsibility for road construction and maintenance in Ethiopian cities is split among federal, regional, and municipal authorities. The challenge of this arrangement is not the multiplicity of agencies involved per se—but rather the decreasing degree of interaction with local stakeholders at the higher-level jurisdictions. Weak traffic management seems to be influenced by the fragmentation of traffic management functions among different agencies. Inclusiveness Inclusiveness in transport contains a spatial component (service to different parts of the city) and a social component (service to different kinds of people) and how well transport users’ needs are met by the infrastructure and services provided. Pedestrians make up the largest share of urban transport in Ethiopian cities, but pedestrian accessibility and safety have not been sufficiently factored into road design, particularly by the non-municipal road authorities. Redundant The transport and road systems in the regional capitals are insufficiently redundant for effective disaster management. A monocentric city design and street patterns in informal settlements, old historic centers, and market areas make fluid access through the city challenging, especially for emergency vehicles. These areas are all at risk of fire, so the lack of emergency access is a key stress. This leaves sections of the city vulnerable to high impact from shocks, more so as their populations continue to increase. Heavy reliance on three-wheeled vehicles and lack of viable intracity alternatives exacerbates accidents and congestion, complicating emergency response. Reflectiveness Roadside drainage in cities is traditionally follows a piecemeal approach and as a result, many areas in the city are underserved and especially vulnerable to flooding. Local governments are developing asset management systems and will undertake drainage master plans and other activities that lead to reduced flood risk. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 71 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia One important stress that emerged for a number regional transport authorities operating of the cities, but which had previously received under delegation from the Federal Road scant attention, was the impact of heat-related Transport Authority (FRTA). But the stress, which would likely get worse as climate mandate of the FRTA and the regional change advances. In Semera-Logia, heat stress transport authorities is substantially manifested itself in the accident rate (especially broader than the urban areas in question. relative to the population). Apparently, heat- So although the cities may own and related delirium and stress may be an important operate small public transport operations, contributing factor to the high rate of road the regions regulate other transport traffic accidents within town, particularly in the services, but often not in a way that is stretch of road separating Semera from Logia. coordinated with the aspirations of the If borne out by evidence, this may be a factor city. A public transport executive authority in accidents all across the Adama to Djibouti is a potential solution. corridor. In Gambella, heat was mentioned as a 3. Develop geocoded drainage master plans factor in health clinic and hospital visits by public for all cities, with detailed five-year transport passengers. implementation program, cost estimates, Recommendations and finance-gap contingencies. The commonality of transport challenges found Federal level priority recommendations across regional cities in Ethiopia suggests that 1. Strengthen traffic management capacity: developing solutions should be seen not only as a priority of the cities themselves, but also for a. Develop urban transport management the national government. In addition, a number programs at Ethiopian universities for of the cities (including Dire Dawa, Jigjiga, increased capacity. and Adama) highlighted the need for further b. Establish a traffic management network development investments to enhance funding program, providing redundancy of the network. resources to local governments to engage consultants and implement City administration priority recommendations recommended improvements, subject 1. Authorize and establish traffic management to competitive application and units to oversee management of road meeting certain criteria. and street space, conduct analyses, and organize training and capacity 2. Undertake a nationwide GIS master plan development. This should also include and implementation program, accessible designation and marking of emergency across agencies, jurisdictions, and cities, evacuation routes and influence on the to help manage shocks and stresses. Many building permitting process as it relates to local governments are developing asset traffic impact. management systems and other important systems such as cadaster and sector- 2. Pilot test a public transport executive specific master that would greatly assist in authority and develop a public transit managing shocks and stresses and would program in one city, with roll-out of lessons benefit from a harmonized GIS approach. learned for other cities. None of the cities These activities should all be geocoded, and have direct regulatory authority over that geocoding should follow standards and licensing commercial transport operations; platforms that allow interoperability across that authority is usually exercised through agencies, jurisdictions, and cities. 72 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments 3.6. Water Supply and of resources and undermines their services. Sanitation The cities lack an adequate information management system that generates key data to Sectoral Overview improve the performance of the sector, including A majority of the cities are facing severe water reducing unaccounted water. The water utilities shortages following source depletion, prolonged do not have robust operational and investment drought situations, and deteriorating water plans that enable them to address fast-growing quality. The cities are unable to provide water urbanization. They also face limited technical supply and sanitation to all residents. Although and financial capacity to perform and achieve plans exist, there is limited coordination with their targets. Water is essential for sustainability other developments or are underfinanced. and fast economic growth, and the rapidly Sanitation coverage remains low. There is an growing urban population requires massive absence of coordination with other sectors, natural resources management and water supply which often costs utilities a substantial amount and sanitation development. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Water Supply and Sanitation Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Severe water scarcity and worsening water • Resolve water scarcity and impacts from climate quality variability • Inadequate access to water supply and • Improve water supply and sanitation coverage sanitation facilities • Improve capacity for coordination and strengthen • Limited coordination, technical, financial, and information database data management capacities Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 73 Photo: aleksander hunta © Shutterstock.com Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Policy and Sectoral Context Water supply coverage remains insufficient in The Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity many regional capitals in Ethiopia. The water (MoWIE) provides national guidance and sectoral coverage rate varies from 40 percent in Jigjiga oversight, with responsibility to plan, develop, to 90 percent in Hawassa (Figure 3.7). This large and regulate Ethiopia’s water resources as well variation indicates that water supply coverage as implement trans-regional development is a major problem of the regional capitals with programs. At the regional level, bureaus oversee its implications for health and productivity. development of regional water resources, Further it should be noted that water coverage including improvement of the urban water is not the same as access to private piped supply. Complementary to the regional structure, water. For instance, though Hawassa city has basin authorities are responsible for monitoring a 90 percent water coverage, the proportion of and regulating the development and utilization people with piped water into their premises is of surface water and groundwater. They are only 25 percent. This indicates that the bulk of managed by the Ministry and accountable to a Basin Higher Council chaired by the Deputy the city population use a common water source Prime Minister. Based on a national-level policy, for their water supply. In many cities it is also all cities have adopted progressive tariffs that reiterated that in general the city water supply increase as the consumption increases and a flat is insufficient because of high demand and also rate for public taps. shows variations within the city itself. Figure 3.7. Improved Water Supply Coverage (%) AA Semera Dire Dawa Harar Gambella Hawassa Assosa Jigjiga Adama Bahir Dar Mekelle 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100   Source: City-level data and the World Bank (for Bahir Dar, Dire Dawa, and Addis Ababa). No data for Semera, Assosa, and Adama 74 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments All cities are currently unable to provide residents to disease outbreak. Sanitation continuous water service (24/7). Currently, the facilities in the regional capitals are dominated net per capita water supply that reaches each by households’ use of pit latrines. Mekelle and household is as low as 26l/c/d (Adama), 30 Jigjiga are the two cities with a significant l/c/d (Mekelle) and 33 l/c/d (Harar). Within the regional capitals, the availability of sanitation proportion of the households using flush toilets infrastructure remains challenging, exposing (Figure 3.8). Figure 3.8. Types of Toilet Facilities in Regional Capitals in 2011 120 100 80 60 Flush toilets 40 Pit latrines 20 0   Source: CSA Welfare Monitoring Survey 2011. 75 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia How Resilient is the Sector? coordination with existing urban development plans and priorities. In a resilient city, there Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, potable is sufficient human and technical capacity to water and sanitation services are accessible ensure sustainable operation, maintenance and to all segments of the population. Water and financial management of water and sanitation sanitation infrastructure is planned with a infrastructure and services. holistic approach taking into account social, economic, and environmental risks and Qualities of Resilience vulnerabilities. Planning for and investment When evaluated on the five qualities of resilience, in the sanitation and water systems is driven the cities are doing better on coordination, by demand and supply data, participatory reflectiveness, and inclusiveness, but need to engagement, and is based on cross- take more steps to ensure robust functioning of departmental collaborations that support the water supply and sanitation: Quality Description Robustness Most of the regional capitals consider robustness to be the weakest characteristic of the water and sanitation sector. Access and quality can be improved. Coordination Cross-sectoral coordination is not well-established and functioning in the water sector as cities and sectors tend to operate separately without much information exchange or partnership. Different cities have their own modalities of coordination with other sectors, in some cases via quarterly meetings. Responsibility is fragmented between municipalities, water utilities, and the offices of health and of environment. Inclusiveness There are policies in place calling for the provision of water supply services to all Ethiopians, including poor and vulnerable sectors.40 Implementation of these provisions is more complicated in operation, requiring dedicated training, information, and resources, which are barely available on the ground. Redundant Redundancy is weak in all the capital cities. Both water supply and sanitation are deeply vulnerable to shocks such as earthquakes, landslides, flooding, and drought. There are already stresses on existing systems, and any shock affecting the water supply systems would cause significant impact. Adama experienced a landslide that affected the main, raising it 500 mm, which affected the entire supply to the city in two consecutive years of flooding. Reflectiveness There is significant room for improvement in reflectiveness of WSS across all regional capitals. Most cities do not have robust documentation and analysis of their past and current operations to inform planning for the future. Harar is the only city that reported use of a GIS system for main line maintenance. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 40 FDRE (2015): State of Ethiopian Cities Report. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Urban Development, Housing and Construction 40 and Ethiopian Civil Service University. 76 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments BOX 3.4. Water and Sanitation Challenges facing Regional Capitals Water scarcity: Dire Dawa, Harar, Jigjiga, Semera-Logia, Adama and Mekelle are among the cities where water scarcity is a serious problem. If no actions are taken, the same challenge is expected to come shortly to other cities as well. Bahir Dar and Assosa are already giving some signs that water scarcity could become a serious issue. The problem is exacerbated when considering the poor aquifer recharge mechanism and the impact of climate change. Other factors are: (i) Sources are depleting over time, (Harar, Jigjiga, Adama, Semera–Logia, Mekelle, Bahir Dar and Assosa are towns experiencing this problem); and (ii) drought is affecting all towns, except Gambella and Hawassa which did not report that water utilities had been affected at least twice following long dry seasons. Worsening water quality: Water quality is worsening due to pollution, flooding and sedimentation, and deteriorating infrastructure, despite water quality monitoring and treatment systems in each of the capital cities. The type and intensity of quality control and treatment vary from town to town. Mekelle and Dire Dawa often face an internal corrosion of still pipes due to the hardness of water that compromises even a proper supply of water. Gambella, Bahir Dar, and Adama have a serious problem of surface water pollution because of poor upstream management. Furthermore, whenever there is flooding, the treatment capacity is constrained because of high turbidity and sedimentation. Semera-Logia faces a unique challenge, which is associated with the high temperatures of the water at the sources, which reach above 40o C. The utility is forced to have different types of pumps and accessories that often are not available on the market. Substandard sanitation facilities: More than 75 percent of capital city households use either a traditional or improved pit latrine. There are also public and shared latrines which are in poor condition. Latrines are commonly connected to a drainage system, including natural drains, rather than a conventional sewerage system (with a slight difference in Hawassa), and there is no strong regulatory and enforcement mechanism for improvement. Most cities do not consider sanitation a priority concern, and professionals estimate that less than two percent of city resources are assigned to the sector, since more attention is given to solid waste management. Lack of technical and financial capacity: Water utilities in the regional capitals do not have the operational and investment plans to address the challenges of fast growing urbanization. They also lack the in-house technical capacity to meet the new and growing demands, and the financial capacity to afford outsourced expertise. Often, cities get limited technical assistance from a consultant that is contracted for a single output, which is often constrained by limited data. Further to the planning problem, all cities have limited financial resources to cover their cost. Mekelle, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, Dire Dawa, Harar and Adama are on a better situation compared to others. Weak data management system: Many of the oldest capital cities’ water utilities lack maps of their distribution systems (with the exception of Harar which has a GIS monitoring system, Mekelle and Hawassa) and some have no reliable systems data on production or distribution (including Dire Dawa). Without accurate records and groundwater monitoring data, utilities cannot plan for future supply or regulate non- revenue water. Utilities also lack a complete inventory and map of public tap locations, flood-prone areas and magnitude of the potential effect, and the location of slum areas that need special attention. Similarly, reliable sanitation data is not available, making substantive analysis difficult. The absence of a dedicated focal unit or person responsible for compiling data or monitoring information exacerbates the challenges of data collection and management. Source: Citystrenght Diagnostic Workshops 77 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations • Improving quality of service: Possible medium- and long-term 1. Resolve water scarcity and climate interventions by utilities to increase variability impacts: Improving monitoring water production and improve and groundwater recharging should services include: (i) establish sound be the priority in the medium and long information management systems on term, by adopting integrated urban the distribution system; (ii) increase watershed management, increasing water water production and distribution percolation, and identifying alternative capacity; (iii) reduce non-revenue sources that will address growing demand water (NRW) to the minimum possible; and climate variability impacts. and (iv) create a sanitation services 2. Improve sanitation and water supply management system. coverage by: 3. Improve coordination among different • Improving capacity of water utilities: All actors: Improve collaboration and WSS utilities have capacity limitations integration among the agriculture, that prevent them from managing urban development, energy, health, existing problems and preparing for environmental and climate change future challenges. To improve the entities. Multisectoral collaboration is quality of service and meet future essential for water utilities to secure short- demand, utilities need to: (i) improve and long-term water supplies and ensure management systems; (ii) revisit safe waste management and removal. institutional structures; (iii) develop in- 4. Strengthen information databases: Utilities house technical skills to manage both should be required to keep and analyze water supply and sanitation services; data—on water production, variation on (iv) review the existing tariff structure yield and quality of each of the boreholes, and financing system to ensure and water distributed to different types of adequate resources are in place; (v) customers, including the segment of poor improve operational and investment people benefiting from the system—to plans, and (vi) seek increased private inform planning and decision-making sector participation. processes. 78 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments 3.7. Solid Waste Management have no organized disposal sites, and Hawassa’s dump site now lies within the residential area Sectoral Overview of the city. Dire Dawa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and There are inadequate waste collection systems in Mekelle have engineered dump sites outside the all the cities, leading to disposal of solid waste in city, but lack sufficient operating capacity and drainage systems and open spaces, exacerbating appropriate equipment and vehicles. Overall, flooding and associated public health risks. coordination of Solid Waste Management (SWM) Assosa, Semera-Logia, and Jigjiga have minimal services in these cities appears to be good, but waste collection systems in place. Bahir Dar, Dire Dawa, and Mekelle are performing better further integration and closer liaison between but still need to increase collection coverage, SWM and different services (e.g., construction, particularly for informal areas. Inappropriate public health), is critical to improving sectoral waste disposal practices also cause ground and resilience. There is also a lack of public surface water pollution, methane emissions, and awareness on the dangers of improper disposal landfill fires. Semera-Logia, Assosa, and Harar of wastes. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Solid Waste Management Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Inadequate waste collection systems • Provide solid waste management collection services leading to clogged drains, flooding, and for all associated public health risks • Ensure appropriate disposal of solid wastes by • Inappropriate waste disposal practices developing appropriate disposal sites for all cities. causing ground and surface water pollution, and also methane emissions and • Develop integrated solid waste management plans as a landfill fires part of overall flood management Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 79 Photo: Stephan Bachenheimer © World Bank Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Policy and Sectoral Context Operational responsibility for SWM in the The Ethiopian Government has established a regional capitals sits with the municipalities’ National Solid Waste Strategy. The standards Sanitation and Beautification Department. define clear requirements and targets for Household solid waste is collected by micro- and municipal solid waste management, introducing small enterprises (MSEs), delivered to municipal source separation for composting and recycling containers, and transferred by the municipality wastes. Since publication of the national to the city landfill or dump site (especially in strategy and the standards, there has been clear Hawassa, Dire Dawa, Harar, Jigjiga, Bahir Dar, improvement in municipal SWM, particularly and Assosa). Availability of sanitary landfills is in cities that received direct support from the limited to a few cities, namely, Dire Dawa and Ministry (e.g., Dire Dawa). Yet 10 to 40 percent of wastes remain uncollected (Figure 3.9), and Harar. Most cities use temporary dump sites. considerable further improvement is needed Regional capitals still need to develop sanitary to address the significant negative impact of landfills and improve upon the collection of their existing practices. wastes. Figure 3.9. Solid Waste Collection Rates in Regional Capitals 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mekelle Bahir Dar Adama Jigjiga Assosa Hawassa Gambella Harar Dire Semera AA Dawa   Note: No data available for Adama, Jigjiga and Semera-Logia Source: City-level data and World Bank. 80 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments How Resilient is the Sector? potential future) vulnerabilities during shocks and stresses inform maintenance and upgrading Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, the solid decisions. After a disaster event, the city has waste system offers affordable collection resources and procedures for dealing with large services to all residents, irrespective of their quantities of debris and/or cleanup of hazardous tenure status. Regulations for waste collection, waste. disposal and treatment, especially of hazardous waste, are enforced to protect human health Qualities of Resilience and safety, and the environment. Performance When evaluated on five qualities of resilience, of waste facilities and collection services are cities’ coordination around SWM services is regularly evaluated and the recorded (and stronger than in other areas of resilient practice. Quality Description Robustness The level of robustness of the SWM systems in each of the regional capitals is variable. Some cities lack the capacity, budget, identified disposal sites, or public awareness to support even minimal waste collection systems. Open dumping of solid waste around cities and in drainage ditches is still common, creating public health risks and reducing the effectiveness of drainage systems, leading to serious flooding during heavy rainfall (e.g., Semera-Logia, Hara, Jigjiga, Hawassa and Assosa). Where engineered landfill facilities do exist, they are not maintained or operated appropriately due to a lack of capacity and appropriate machinery (e.g., Dire Dawa, Mekelle, Adama and Bahir Dar). These disposal practices are causing surface and ground water pollution and air pollution in the form of methane emissions and local air pollution created by landfill fires. Coordination Overall, coordination of SWM services in the capital cities appears to be good, for example, between the Sanitation and Beautification Department and Construction and Urban Planning. However, closer collaboration, e.g., with the construction, public health, and urban planning departments, could further integrate SWM services and objectives into other activities of the city. Inclusiveness Engagement with residents and other stakeholders is limited, as evidenced by the high levels of dumping of wastes and the low level of participation in some source separation schemes. Engaging stakeholders will require a concerted effort on public awareness raising, at both the local and national levels. All the regional capitals need to increase their coverage, particularly for informal areas. Redundant There is very little redundancy of SWM services in the capital cities. None have spare vehicles or capacity to manage waste in the event of a disaster (e.g., earthquake or flood). Several of the cities experience frequent breakdowns of the vehicles; only two of Mekelle’s six vehicles are currently operating, and Adama’s landfill site bulldozer has been out of commission for more than two years. Reflectiveness A number of the regional capitals have integrated solid waste management (ISWM) plans that take into account future service requirements and are informed by data on waste quantities and composition. However, several of the cities do not have ISWM plans and do not collect the necessary data to inform their planning and provide appropriate reflection. Source: CityStrenght Diagnostic Workshops, 2016 81 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations in terms of providing disposal capacity, including Semera-Logia, Hawassa, Priority and short term recommendations Gambella, and Jigjiga. include: Short Term: 3. Develop integrated solid waste management plans as part of an overall 1. Provide solid waste management flood management plan for each city collection services for all by increasing which considers future SWM collection coverage (including informal areas): • Ensure all cities have an integrated SWM plan that is evidence-based and provides • Ensure all areas of cities have access to for the cities’ long-term growth. house-to-house collection of wastes by, for example, micro enterprises. • Prepare integrated flood plans that take into account SWM issues to ensure that • Raise public awareness of solid waste drains do not become blocked during management issues to reduce dumping heavy rainfall. of wastes by residents. Implement awareness campaign. Engage with In Medium Term: (i) Increase investment in city- residents on SWM issues. wide waste collection and appropriate disposal activities. This will require additional capital • Consider SWM issues in municipal investment (e.g., from national sources), construction permitting processes, to increasing the budget allocation at the local level (i) reduce the quantity of construction for operational budgets and associated technical waste dumped around the city support; (ii) Establish a market for recyclables, (particularly in drainage channels), particularly discarded plastic polyethylene and (ii) use inert construction waste as terephthalate (PET) bottles, to incentivize construction fill or as daily cover at the their collection, alleviate visible waste, and disposal site. reduce blockage of drainage channels and 2. Ensure appropriate disposal of solid subsequent flooding. For example, a working wastes by developing appropriate disposal partnership with the drinks industry could be sites for all cities. established to encourage materials recycling; and (iii) Develop source separation schemes Provide regional- or federal-level support for organic waste, recyclables, and inorganic to cities to: (i) identify and develop waste, complementary to the planned UNDP appropriate landfill disposal sites, and (ii) “COMPOST” program. develop the skills and resources for their proper, long-term operation. Several cities In the longer term, consider application of other were identified as needing critical support appropriate SWM technologies. 82 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments 3.8. Energy higher in regional capitals, the quality of service is poor because of overloaded distribution Sectoral Overview networks creating low voltage levels and The main challenge for the energy sector voltage fluctuations beyond acceptable is to find financial and human resources to standards, frequent breakdowns, and delays in meet the rapid growth in demand for modern restoring supply after a breakdown. In addition, energy services in rapidly growing cities. The households are on a waiting list for a connection Ethiopian Government is investing in much- because of network constraints. There is no needed additional generating capacity, though or limited collaboration between the utility investment in most of the regional capitals’ and the city administration in the preparation networks is lagging behind. Upgrading and of city integrated development plans, and no expansion of the distribution system is essential. specific plan of collaboration in the event of an Even though the access to electricity is much emergency. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Energy Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • Quality of service is relatively poor • Improve connection and expand coverage • Coordination challenges • Improve integration of planning and coordination with other sectors • Limited emergency preparedness • Improve emergency preparedness Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshop, April 2016 83 Photo: Stephan Bachenheimer © World Bank Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Policy and Sectoral Context regional capitals have an electricity connection, though the bulk of the households have a The GoE places electrification at the core of shared meter connection (Figure 3.10). Harar its development agenda. The GoE continues and Addis Ababa have a higher proportion of to reform the sector to manage new complex households with a private meter. Jigjiga and challenges and meet its GTP II goals. The sector is Gambella have relatively fewer households with managed by several federal institutions including an electricity connection. Despite high electricity the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity coverage, power outages and disruptions (MoWIE), the Ethiopian Electricity Agency are the main problems that households and (EEA), Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP), and the businesses face in many cities. According to Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU). The generation SECR (2015) distribution-related problems, the and transmission responsibilities are managed predominance of wooden electric poles that by EEP, and distribution service is provided by get damaged easily, and the quality and state of EEU. EEA regulates the sector, and the MoWIE is repair of transformers constrain reliable electric in charge of policy and planning issues and has power supply in many cities. The exploitation of a supervisory authority over the power sector alternative sources of energy such as solar and entities. wind may forge a way out of the current electric Access to electricity in urban areas in Ethiopia challenges in many cities. Mekelle and Adama is high. The 2011 monitoring survey indicates have wind-harvesting projects that could boost that a significant proportion of households in alternative energy sources. Figure 3.10. Household Electricity Connection 120 100 80 60 Private meter 40 Shared meter Total 20 0   Source: CSA Welfare Monitoring Survey 2011. Note: No data available for Semera 84 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments How Resilient is the Sector? design of energy infrastructure is informed by an integrated risk assessment taking major shocks Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, the energy system offers a secure supply of power that and stresses into consideration. A resilient ensures the continuity of services in the event energy system provides access to electricity to all of disruptions. It has spare capacity to provide societal groups, and embraces both centralized power to the city under any circumstances, and decentralized approaches as appropriate. especially to ensure continuity to the functioning Management of the energy system, including of critical infrastructure like hospitals and decisions regarding distribution and pricing, is government buildings. The planning for and inclusive of local departments and stakeholders. Qualities of Resilience Quality Description Robustness The energy sector is challenged by aging and overloaded infrastructure. Despite high coverage, power outages and disruptions are the main problems for households and businesses. In addition, old wooden electricity poles in the network are easily damaged and particularly susceptible to fire risk. Lack of municipal capacity and professional expertise at local levels severely constrain regular maintenance of distribution networks and implementing a strategy for increased access and customer service. Coordination There is no collaboration between the utility and the city administration in preparing and updating City Local Development Plans and utility’s Electric Distribution Master Plans, which is needed to ensure timely service delivery and prevent further stress on the system. There is no clear definition of the Ethiopian electrification program’s objectives, shared data management among program principals, or clear and transparent planning platform used to integrate the planning and program management functions between agencies. Inclusiveness Despite tangible progress in infrastructure expansion and institutional transformation, this rapid double-digit growth created many challenges, and the power sector is still unable to ensure reliable supply and services to households and commercial and industrial customers. There is a backlog of people who have submitted requests for connection, and delays are due to technical issues and network capacity. Informal connections are common, particularly in informal settlements. Redundant In the event of an emergency, there is no specific plan of collaboration in place between the utility and the city administration. The cities do not have any specific contingency plan or funding in place to cope with severe disruption of the system or unpredicted events that may cause dysfunction or damage to the equipment. The GoE has now committed to diversify its power generation sources by scaling geothermal, wind, and solar power energy sources as mitigation measures against power shortages. Reflectiveness There is improvement of standards and design in new projects driven by experience, but there is a need to improve connections, households’ internal wiring to prevent urban fires, customer management, and agreed-upon contingency plans in case of emergencies. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 85 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations 2. Improved integration of planning and coordination: Optimization of the Ethiopian 1. Increase connection and expand electrification program resources requires distribution network: a clear definition of program objectives; (i) Significantly increase focus on shared data management among program connecting households and businesses: principals; and a clear and transparent A significant increase of connection rates planning platform used to integrate the will require a programmatic shift from planning and program management medium voltage-only investments to one functions between agencies. This set that includes low-voltage and service of conditions does not yet exist for the connections. The cities should ensure that Ethiopian electrification program. It should the residential electric wiring systems include the following: meet minimum safety standards. Wooden • Developing a master geospatial distribution poles in the network are planning framework for more effective planned to be replaced by concrete ones to distribution network expansion. address fire risk. • Establishing an information sharing (ii) Rehabilitation and Expansion of framework: Coordination among Distribution Networks: The substations EEU, city administration, and other and distribution networks are in urgent stakeholders will be significantly need of rehabilitation and expansion to enhanced by creating an information- keep up with the current load essential sharing platform to allow all for anticipated future demand. Upgrades credentialed users to view and query are also necessary to create needed the GIS planning platform, the master redundancy, improve efficiency, and plan for each city, and priority projects reduce system losses. The government selected for implementation. is already addressing these issues. Specific IDA funded urban distribution 3. Improve emergency preparedness and projects41 are under implementation since coordination: Develop a contingency 2012. This involves network upgrading/ plan in energy sector to cope with severe expansion and connection of 150,000 disruption of the system or unpredicted households in six out of the ten towns events that may cause dysfunction of the covered by this exercise. This should be system or damage to the equipment. The scaled up by creating the capacity within plan should prioritize schools, hospitals, EEU to undertake in coordination with and other critical infrastructure. Develop local governments the short and long- redundancy of energy supply and remote term expansion planning for distribution control to improve operational flexibility in systems (in line with urban development all towns. plans) and facilitating access to electric service and other modern energy services. ENREP (P119893 & P155563) will provide $140 million to urban network upgrading and expansion as well as connection program in the 14 following 41 towns are covered Addis Ababa, Mekelle, Bahir Dar, Dessie, Adama, Dire Dawa, Hawassa, Jimma, Harar, Adrigat, Debre Markos, Sashemene, Gonder and Woleyta Sodo. 86 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments III. Community and Local Policy and Sectoral Context Economic Development The federal and decentralized structure of Ethiopia recognizes cities and woredas as 3.9. Local Economic local governments with the authority to lead Development local economic development in their own Sectoral Overview jurisdictions. However, most cities have a All the regional capitals have high weak economic base. The national Growth unemployment, especially youth and Transformation Plans I and II focus on unemployment. They lack the necessary broad-based, fast, and equitable growth, with economic development infrastructure, and structural change emphasizing manufacturing regions have technical and financial capacity and industrialization. Cities, particularly regional constraints in implementing their master plan, capitals, are expected to play a major role properly supporting micro and small enterprises of not only catering to their citizens but also (MSEs), and attracting investment. stimulating the national economy. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Local Economic Development Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • High unemployment • Provide strategic local infrastructure to attract firms • Lack of infrastructure • Improve institutional coordination and capacity • Financial and technical capacity • Strengthen and enhance the municipal revenue constraints collection capacity • Promote dialogue and strengthen collaboration between the public and the private sectors Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops Regional capitals are associated with diverse is the second largest sector, employing more employment opportunities, particularly in than 10 percent of the labor force in most cities. the wholesale and retail and construction Manufacturing is third, concentrated especially in sectors. Wholesale and retail trade is the largest Adama (17.5 percent), Mekelle (17 percent), and employer, with more than one third of the Hawassa (10.8 percent). Industrial parks offer labor force in Harar (36 percent) and Jigjjga local economic promise, with 50,000 to 80,000 (34 percent) earning a living in this sector. expected jobs in Hawassa and Adama. Dire Dawa Employment in the capital cities is diversified will also benefit from an industrial park. Other across almost a dozen sectors, but primarily cities have comparative advantages in tourism, concentrated in a few (Figure 3.11). Construction agro-processing, mining and related industries. 87 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Figure 3.11. Employment Composition in Regional Capitals (2014). Financial & insurance activities Information & communication Accommodation & food service activities Transportation & storage Whole sale & retail trade, repair of motor vehicles Construction Water supply, sewerage waste mgt & remediation… Electricity gas system & ac supply Manufacturing Mining & quarrying Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dire Dawa Harar Gambella Hawassa Assosa Jigjiga Adama Bahir Dar Mekelle   Source: CSA 2014. Note: Data not available for Semera-Logia. Cities pursue different strategies to stimulate high unemployment rates, ranging from 8 to 23 their economy and generate employment. percent in 2014. Dire Dawa (22.8 percent), Adama Almost all the capitals have adopted Ethiopia’s (19.6 percent), and Mekelle (18.8 percent) have Micro and Small Enterprise (MSE) Development the highest level of unemployment among the 10 Strategy to reduce poverty and create regional capitals. The unemployment dynamics employment opportunities, offering training, show that Adama, Assosa, and Harar experienced market access, and credit for MSEs nationwide, increased unemployment between 2009 and with some cities establishing sub-contracting 2014, while other cities either showed no change arrangements with industry giants. In some or experienced a decline during the same period cities in the emerging regions, the MSE strategy is not well implemented. For instance, Assosa (Figure 3.12). does not have an MSE office. Meanwhile, the Employees in the informal sector are particularly MSE sector in Semera-Logia is not strong enough vulnerable, as many are unable to cover to support the unemployed. Cities also offer expenses when there is a major shock. Regional investment incentives, providing land and capitals have significant levels of employment in identifying potential areas of investment. Urban infrastructure provision, particularly under the the informal sector, at more than 30 percent in Urban Local Government Development Program some cities, such as Gambella and Harar (ULGDP) program, also creates employment (Figure 3.13). Such high levels of informality opportunities. Even with available employment imply that the income derived is irregular and opportunities, the capital cities tend to have small, leading citizens into high levels of poverty. 88 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Figure 3.12. Unemployment Rate in Regional Capitals (%) (2009 and 2014). 30 25 20 15 2009 10 2014 5 0   Source: CSA 2009, 2014. Figure 3.13. Proportion of Informal Jobs in Regional Capitals (%) (2009 and 2014). 45 40 35 30 25 20 2009 15 2014 10 5 0   Source: CSA 2009 and 2014. 89 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia How Resilient is the Sector? employment policies and technical assistance programs to promote growth and a strong Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, the local local economy. In a resilient city, the local economy is diverse and youth unemployment government is capable of analyzing regional is low. The city consciously uses infrastructure economic trends, and making necessary policy investments to steer and encourage economic and industry adjustments to improve the local growth. The city invests in education, introduces economy’s overall shock-resistance. Qualities of Resilience Quality Description Robustness The local economies in the capital cities have significant room for improvement in their robustness. All the cities, except Semera-Logia, have economic and project development plans, but in all cases, the plan implementation is limited for several reasons including budget constraints. Key Challenges include: unemployment, particularly youth unemployment; lack of infrastructure, particularly the shortages and outages of electric power and water supply; and limited financial capacity to support MSEs, medium industries, and create employment opportunities. Coordination Cross-sectoral coordination on local economic development varies among the capital cities. Some cities (Dire Dawa, Harar, Hawassa) have clear coordination structures in place: agencies meet regularly, sectors provide collaborative leadership on investment, job creation, and poverty reduction, or work together in plan preparation and implementation. Inclusiveness Nearly all the capital cities are inclusive in policy and strategy, having mainstreamed women, youth, and vulnerable populations in employment creation and MSE strategies. The inclusiveness in policy is not yet translated into practice. Redundant The economy in almost all cities is acknowledged to lack diversification, with no clear strategies in place to ensure redundancy in alternative employment opportunities during sectoral shocks or failure. Some capital city experts believe that city master plans could be used as a basis for diversification. Alternatives to waged employment are few. Reflectiveness Many cities have been informed by past experience, taking actions following physical damage caused by some shocks. This includes strengthening marketplace electrical systems when rebuilding after a fire, and erecting retention walls and relocating people to higher areas to prevent economic losses from future flooding. In terms of economic performance, many cities agree that they undertake evaluations for purposes of learning, but there is a challenge of incorporating the results for future work. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshops, 2016 90 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments Recommendations 3.10. Community Development 1. Strengthen institutions and provide and Social Protection strategic local infrastructure needed to Sectoral Overview attract firms and create employment opportunities. Unemployment and poverty are high in the regional capitals. There is inadequate 2. Leverage land use planning to attract coordination among people-focused institutions, investment from firms and give incentives and no warning is provided to the groups most to owners to prepare, insure and adapt vulnerable to flooding risk. Limited baseline against future hazards, to avoid future information on the vulnerable segments of the damage to the economy. society hampers proper planning for better 3. Strengthen and enhance the municipal inclusiveness. Women, children, people with revenue collection capacity, which can disabilities, the elderly, the unemployed, and then be invested in mitigating market people exposed to risk due to various social, failures (such as lack of information or natural, and other pressures are the most missing insurance market). vulnerable and affected segments of Ethiopian 4. Promote dialogue and strengthen society. collaboration between the public and the private sectors. Key Challenges and Recommended Actions for Community Development and Social Protection Key Challenges Priority Recommendations • High unemployment and poverty • Addressing the problem of unemployment • Lack of institutional coordination • Ensure that the inequality to accessing basic services and housing are addressed • Vulnerable groups (e.g. elderly, unemployed) are the most exposed to • Launch city-level systematic awareness raising programs social, natural, and other pressures on shocks and stresses and include how to prepare and cope. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic workshop, April 2016 91 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Policy and Sectoral Context poor and vulnerable people remain significant. Even as levels of poverty fell, the proportion of The Ethiopia Constitution protects the right to food-poor people was estimated at more than social protection for all citizens, acknowledging 33 percent.42 In all the capital cities, efforts are that social protection interventions can in place to establish and strengthen community contribute to overall economic and human support mechanisms called “Community capital development. As a result, the Government Care Coalitions” (CCCs). CCCs are coalitions of developed and endorsed the National Social community stakeholders, civil servants and Protection Policy in October 2014. the business community that came together Responsibility for social protection and to mobilize resources to support vulnerable community development in the regional groups. In Mekelle and Bahir Dar, CCCs are well- capitals sits primarily with the municipality established and functioning in all of the city’s and, specifically, the Offices of Labor and Social kebeles. Affairs, and Women and Children’s Affairs. In Poverty rates vary across the regional capitals, the last decade, Ethiopia implemented a series with Dire Dawa and Hawassa having particularly of successful poverty reduction programs that high poverty rates (Figure 3.14). Though poverty resulted in registration of remarkable economic has declined in all cities except Dire Dawa since growth. From 2011 to 2013, the proportion of 2011, and many of the cities have poverty levels poor people in the country fell from 29.6 percent lower than the national average in 2011, poverty to 26 percent, reflecting the previous two years creates a critical vulnerability for people in each of economic growth, though the numbers of of the regional capitals. Figure 3.14. People Living Below the Poverty line in Regional Capitals (%) (2005 and 2011) 40 35 30 25 20 2005 15 10 2011 5 0   Source: For Mekelle 2011—GTPII of Mekelle city. For all other data—MoFED (2013) Note: No data for Semera Logia National Social Protection Policy of Ethiopia, 2014 42 92 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments How Resilient is the Sector? the formal economy and have sufficient capacity Resilience Vision: In a resilient city, residents, to deal with and bounce back from shocks including vulnerable groups, are given equal and and stresses. Decision-making and planning fair access to basic services. Support structures, is inclusive and reflects community priorities such as safety net programs, target all vulnerable and needs. A resilient city creates opportunities segments of the society and effectively deliver for a thriving civil society that supports the their services under any given scenario. All representation of society, including fair and residents have equal opportunity to engage in effective crime prevention and justice systems. Qualities of Resilience Quality Description Robustness The level of robustness of the community and social protection system in each of the regional capitals is variable. Unemployment is a critical stress across all of the regional capitals, especially for youth, the very poor, and persons with disabilities. In some cities, lack of municipal capacity and operational infrastructure for social services limit the ability to reach out to the unemployed, socially disadvantaged, and vulnerable populations. There is also lack of a strong post-disaster beneficiary system. Coordination Coordination of community development and social protection in the capital cities requires improvement and closer liaison among different services. There is a need for a well-developed system for collaborative planning, implementation, and information sharing. Inclusiveness Inclusiveness can be strengthened. In almost all cities, there is a strong view that the community is consulted and involved in the development of infrastructure plans and projects. However, when it comes to plan implementation and accessibility of services, the representation or engagement of the poor and vulnerable in the community is significantly limited. Almost all of the cities noted that, to a certain degree, there are no adequate services for people with disabilities, the elderly and street children, such as feeding centers or spaces for socialization. Redundant The Government’s Productive Safety Net Program covers woredas in food-insecure rural areas. The Government’s Urban Productive Safety Nets Program is currently being phased in in 11 cities across Ethiopia and will help with improving access to the food insecure population. Reflectiveness A number of the regional capitals reported that they are in better shape due to reflectiveness of efforts, especially in the area of preventing conflicts and social unrest. Across all cities, there is a lack of updated baseline information on the vulnerable segment of the society, their whereabouts and characteristics. The cities have worked towards preventing illegal immigration. Source: CityStrength Diagnostic Workshops, 2016 93 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Recommendations 5. Develop regional and municipal programs to translate national policies into 1. Establish a strong coordination system implementable actions, and establish of institutions working on the wellbeing a system of coordination and financial of the society to effectively plan and support among relevant institutions at all implement social protection programs: levels of government. • Build the institutional, human resource, and financial capacity of institutions in 3.11. Improving Resilience the community and social protection Considerations at Local and sector; Sectoral Levels • Establish a strong monitoring and Sectoral assessments confirmed stresses and evaluation and information sharing shocks faced by cities, and identified a number system among these institutions. of measures for improving resilience. Many common challenges were noted in sectoral 2. Addressing the problem of unemployment assessments. First, inter-sectoral and inter- by: jurisdictional coordination came out as a most • Introducing infrastructure development pressing concern. Second, data collection and projects in which the youth and management in all sectors is relatively weak and workforce of the city become require urgent attention. Third, local technical economically active and engaged in and financial capacity remain weak to plan, gainful employment; implement and monitor actions. All these challenges affect the overall resilience of cities • Promoting productive safety net and need to be addressed urgently. programs in which the socially disadvantaged segment of the Sector specific recommendations are critical population can participate and improve for managing critical shocks and stresses. their livelihood and access to basic Reducing impacts from flooding, fire, and services. earthquakes requires actions across all sectors. Specific actions include: incorporating hazard 3. Ensure that unequal access to basic information in urban planning and management, services and housing is addressed by: implementing hazard-resilient building codes, establishing a contingency budget for emergency • Resuming the construction of response, developing emergency access roads condominium houses and land to vulnerable areas of cities, and addressing distribution (Mekelle); housing shortages and informal settlement • Introducing a fee waiver for basic growth challenges through improvements in services targeting the socially rental markets, housing cooperatives, and land disadvantaged segment of the supply. The development of a local climate population. and disaster risk management strategy and setting up local DRM units will be critical to 4. Launch city-level systematic awareness- strengthening resilience - as need noted by many raising programs on the negative effects of sectors. harmful traditional practices and poor work culture, using different communication To resolve growing urban stresses, a number media channels (including social media, of coordinated actions are required in many youth clubs, associations). sectors. The largely monocentric form of 94 Resilience Challenges in Ethiopian Cities: Sectoral Assessments many cities needs to balance with additional masterplan based on a growing population as growth centers to reduce traffic congestion, well as a climate and disaster profile. Across while making space for new areas to grow all cities, it also came out as a priority to and absorb an expanding future population. incorporate in the living master plan all services An integrated urban watershed management and infrastructure. Within a majority of cities, approach is needed to improve water scarcity addressing housing shortage and improving and flooding. Poverty and unemployment need DRM capacity, including the development of to be addressed by improving strategic local a DRM unit and local DRM strategy, came out infrastructure to attract firms, diversifying the as priorities. Bahir Dar and Mekelle identified economic base, and improving the dialogue pollution management as a key priority, while between public and private sectors. It will be addressing unemployment and poverty through important to target efforts towards specific local economic development came out as a vulnerable groups who are more exposed to priority in four cities. shocks and stresses and have less capacity to cope. Enhancing inclusion is needed to ensure While many actions were identified in sectoral community empowerment and development. and local assessments to improve resilience, a number of these can be consolidated into City level assessments, carried out during the five key areas of priorities. The next chapter CityStrength Diagnostics workshop, identified details these priorities in an actionable similar priorities (See Annex 3). The key priorities format, identifying next steps for different are to develop or revise the integrated land use implementing agencies. 95 Photo: Stephan Bachenheimer © World Bank II. IV. PRIORITY ACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS Photo: WLDavies © iStock.com 4. Priority Actions and Investments for Urban Resilience in Ethiopia Ethiopia’s regional capitals are at a crossroads. Decisions made today about the type and location of infrastructure, services, and buildings will affect the overall safety of the cities in the years to come. How they manage and support the poorest and most vulnerable groups will also affect their overall long-term resilience. The unprecedented population growth in these capitals provides an opportune moment to strengthen preparatory planning and management of disaster and climate risks. Working toward the safe and resilient agglomeration of people and economic activity can ensure that cities’ local goals are achieved as well as Ethiopia’s national goal of becoming a middle-income country. To do otherwise, by adopting a business-as-usual approach to urban growth, could exacerbate impacts from shocks and stresses and undermine efforts to achieve these goals. Based on sectoral and cities priorities, the following key objectives were identified: 1. Effectively manage rapid urban growth in a risk-sensitive manner, focusing on the most vulnerable populations; 2. Better manage flooding and water scarcity; 3. Improve disaster preparedness, including fire safety and response; 4. Strengthen the building regulatory framework to mitigate seismic risk and ensure overall safety; and 5. Support implementation of urban planning and key sectoral priorities. This chapter describes the priority actions and investments identified to meet the above objectives. These recommendations are based on the detailed sectoral and citywide priorities identified during multiple CityStrength diagnostics workshops conducted from 2015-2016. Effectively Manage Rapid Urban Growth in a 4.1. Risk-Sensitive Manner Focusing on the Most Vulnerable Rationale: Population in the 10 regional capitals is going to increase by nearly four million people in the coming 20 years, almost doubling each city’s population and adding more than half a million people in five of the bigger cities (Adama, Dire Dawa, Hawassa, Bahir Dar, and Mekelle). Effectively managing urban growth on this scale requires proactive, coordinated, and integrated planning and implementation of plans, taking into account disaster and climate risks. Dedicated support for implementation and coordination is needed. Although every city has prepared master or structural plans, implementing the plans remains a challenge because of financial and technical capacity constraints and interjurisdictional coordination issues. More needs to be done to proactively manage informal settlements and avoid obstruction of cities’ natural drainage systems. 99 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Actions and Investments nationwide geocoded data master plan be developed. 1. Develop integrated, coordinated, and risk- sensitive urban planning, implementation, Apart from local measures to improve and monitoring processes. coordination and data management across a. Strengthen risk-sensitive planning, sectors, strengthened coordination and coordination, and implementation excellence in urban planning are critical at the across sectors, jurisdictions, and national level. Cities across Ethiopia will grow government levels: This will require (i) rapidly in the coming decades, but individually, identifying, mapping, and incorporating they lack capacity to plan for and manage that hazard risk factors into land-use and growth. This includes aspects such as where to structural plans (see Priority 4 above), site expansion areas, how to develop polycentric (ii) establishing a taskforce to facilitate urban forms, where and how to develop coordination during the planning and transport networks and other infrastructure, implementation, and (iii) improving how to manage water resources over time, and stakeholder consultations in all a myriad of other issues. These challenges are planning actions. too great for city administrations to address on b. Develop a central information system a day-to-day basis, but also too daunting to be on planning and risk data: Nationally, considered only every ten years during a master there is a strong need to ensure that plan exercise. Rather, they require ongoing spatial and temporal data management analysis, especially as the understanding of the in different sectors follow standards changing climate develops. City administrations of coding and platforms that allow also require specialized expertise that may not interoperability across agencies and jurisdictions. It would be particularly be available in each city, or, indeed, in the locally- useful to develop a common network affiliated university. It is proposed, therefore, to of geocoded information available develop new think-tanks—or strengthen existing to different agencies in real time. It academic institutions—at the national level (See is recommended, therefore, that a Box 4.1). BOX 4.1. National Urban Policy Think Tank for a Resilient Ethiopia A new applied national policy research institution—or strengthening existing research institutions—would serve as a think tank to incubate, foster, and centralize thinking about low-carbon and resilient urbanization in Ethiopia. This national-level initiative would include ongoing analysis and evolving expertise, especially as our understanding of climate change develops. The institution can provide services to cities throughout Ethiopia, such as strategic studies, modeling and performance scenario analyses in a variety of subjects such as land use and mobility. It might also function as an urban observatory to track key benchmark data, foster collaborative research, and support pilot practice around the country. A number of Asian countries, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, have established similar types of think tanks, which might serve as useful models for moving forward. 100 Priority Actions and Investments 2. Resolve housing shortages and support the c. Improve living conditions of existing most vulnerable community groups: housing units by in situ upgrading in kebele housing and informal a. Strengthen the rental market in cities settlements. Taking an integrated by encouraging owners to rent their and comprehensive development units, and incentivizing property approach, this will include measures developers to construct rental units. to improve flood and fire preparedness in existing settlements, including b. Increase access to land to build housing investment in streets, drainage, solid that is accessible by the urban poor waste management, community- and increase supply of land to meet based awareness raising, and flood the regularization backlog. The access warning and response (see Box 4.2). It to land should be carefully planned to will also include measures to improve incorporate hazard and climate change skills and employment opportunities considerations as well as overall on one hand, and health and accessibility during any emergency. education on other hand. BOX 4.2. Flood Management as Part of a Holistic Approach to Informal Settlement Development in Indore, India Indore’s Slum Network Project (SNP) in India is a project that adopted a holistic approach to urban improvement in which slums are an integral part of the city. Instead of ignoring and denying the reality of slums, they were viewed as urban nets to upgrade the whole city in an integrated way. The SNP worked at two broad levels: the slums and the city. In the slums, the SNP substantially upgraded the quality of life by engineering innovations, notably the creation of household infrastructure and improvement in the overall slum environment. Across the city, instead of upgrading slums one at a time, the SNP approached the matrix of slums as an opportunity for augmenting infrastructure city-wide. This is because watercourses, which are central to major locations of slum settlements, also represent the most efficient lines for infrastructure provision. New infrastructure provided in individual slums was linked to that of other slums and to the existing city systems in order to bring about significant improvements to the city as a whole. In doing so, the SNP generated economies of scale: the cost of underground sewerage and centralized treatment under the Slum Networking approach was Rs. 1,500 (US$44) per slum family for the on-site provisions and Rs. 1,000 (US$30) for the off-site collection and treatment. This total cost of Rs. 2,500 (US$74) per household was the same as that of a shared twin pit latrine (developed by UNDP) but the advantages are considerably greater. With the SNP’s integrated holistic view, all families have individual facilities and a much cleaner living environment. Source: Jacobsen, Michael; Webster, Michael (2015) ; Diacon (1997). 101 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 4.2. Better Management of b. Establish flood warning and Flooding and Water Scarcity preparedness: To better prepare for flooding, the cities need to establish Rationale: The majority of regional capitals face or build on existing flood warning both growing flooding impacts and severe water systems, linking them with the scarcity. With climate change, the frequency National Meteorological Agency, and intensity of flooding and water scarcity will the National DRM Commission, and increase if actions are not taken. The current Regional Bureaus. Flood preparedness piecemeal approach relying on structural plans need to be developed as a part measures (primarily retention walls or drainage of city-level contingency plans and channels) and/or relocating at-risk populations linked with community preparedness does not provide effective and long-term flood activities (especially for those mitigation solutions. communities at high risk). Actions and Investments c. Invest in implementing and monitoring 3. Plan and implement integrated flood risk integrated flood risk management management in all regional capitals: plans: National and local governments should prioritize investing in a. Undertake and mainstream integrated implementing and monitoring flood risk management planning: integrated flood risk management This includes (i) improving drainage plans. systems based on watershed-level planning for future populations and 4. Resolve water scarcity and address the hazard exposure, dynamic flood risk challenges of climate variability through modeling (including mapping for improved monitoring and recharge of flood plains and dry river beds), and aquifers. To meet the fast-growing demand incorporating the work into land-use for water resources, it is important to take planning and zoning and infrastructure actions that focus on increasing efficiency and building development; (ii) in service provision and groundwater improved liquid and solid waste recharge while identifying alternative management, including addressing sources. It is recommended to establish water pollution; (iii) encouraging urban a national taskforce to address this watershed management, including challenge and which can commission upstream runoff; and (iv) improving and supervise needed studies to identify green and recreational areas that can improved policy and practice, with detailed enhance water absorption, recharge actions required at national, regional and groundwater aquifers, and serve as local levels. buffer zones to prevent encroachment on flood-prone areas. 102 Priority Actions and Investments BOX 4.3. Integrated Urban Water Management in Teresina, Brazil Integrated urban water management (IUWM) is a holistic approach to managing water usage at the level of the watershed, recognizing the needs of the city as well as upstream and downstream users. IUWM integrates land use, water supply and sanitation, management of storm water and solid waste, and engages stakeholder participation to clarify the diversity of water needs and ensure that water quality is matched to its intended use. IUWM has been applied in many cities across the world. In Brazil, the city of Teresina was frequently flooded. It lacked green spaces and suffered from high social vulnerability, poor infrastructure, solid waste pollution in its lakes, and informal settlements near flood-prone areas. A concentrated program of IUWM included drainage and flood control, waste water collection and treatment, improved sanitary facilities in low-income households, and reduction of lake pollution, in concert with urban infrastructure projects such as roadways, leisure spaces and schools. Residents were engaged throughout the IUWM process. Through the IUWM process, the City of Teresina made significant strides towards community resilience. More that 26,000 people were protected from floods (50-year return period); 25,000 people gained access to sanitation; urban roads were rehabilitated; a newly constructed park provided drainage and leisure space, and became a source of local pride; 500 families resettled away from areas at risk; and 168 very poor families benefitted from household improvements. BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER 103 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 4.3. Improve Disaster Management Systems to ensure timely Preparedness Including Fire warning and response. Safety and Response 6. Improve disaster data collection, risk Rationale: The regional capitals do not have a assessment, and information sharing: dedicated budget or staff to plan, mainstream, There is an urgent and ongoing need to and implement disaster and climate risk understand what and where are the risks, management actions. The cities do not provide in order to rationally allocate resources. flood warnings or earthquake, landslide, This can build on the Woreda Risk Profile or volcano alerts, and currently no disaster system and includes the following: contingency plans are in place to prepare a. Generation and Analysis of Hazard and communities for disasters. The cities have Risk Information: More information on very limited human resources and no financial local geotechnical and hazard risks contingency to deal with disasters. Cities also (e.g., earthquake, flooding) is required lack adequate equipment and resources to for DRM and planning. Risk analysis respond to fire or take fire safety measures, tools should be developed and especially in tall buildings and informal implemented to generate hazard and markets. With growth in cities’ populations, risk maps to inform decision-making. higher fire-related mortality is expected, which is already high in Ethiopia.43 These resources Activity: The specific nature of these and infrastructure are needed to improve tools would be based on a user needs overall safety and to enhance each city’s assessment as an essential first step. competitiveness and its potential to attract and The tools could be web-based or retain new investments. stand-alone and are intended for use at local, regional and national— Actions and Investments including ministerial—levels of 5. Establish a Disaster Risk Management government. Such work will ensure Institutional Framework in cities: Following access to the up-to-date data and the new national DRM policy, extend enable enhanced risk communication. the existing national and regional DRM Concurrent with development of structure to the cities with dedicated staff risk analysis tools would be detailed and budget within city administrations. mapping of high flood and seismic The urban DRM unit will be in charge of hazard areas, providing land use developing a DRM strategy, including: planners and design professionals with (i) securing early warning on flooding, reliable data. drought, and high winds, and alerts for b. Seismic and flood hazard monitoring earthquakes and landslides; (ii) ensuring instruments and stations: Current community disaster preparedness; (iii) earthquake and flood instrumentation developing contingency planning and is inadequate and needs improvement. budgeting; and (iv) exploring risk financing Such instruments are critical for and insurance options. City-based DRM gathering hazard information needed units can build on the structure and to inform risk modelling as well as systems of the existing National DRM to ensure building codes and land Commission, such as the National Incident Ethiopia is effectively spending roughly 1.5 percent less on fire protection features in buildings than middle and high-income countries (as a fraction 43 of total building cost) and suffering close to 20 times the mortality, which currently totals close to 12,000 deaths per year. 104 Priority Actions and Investments use plans are risk-informed. Such responsibilities, and coordination instruments are also critical in mechanism of hazard monitoring, developing early warning systems for disaster risk management and impending floods and earthquakes. building safety authorities in order to strengthen them; and (c) establish Activity: A systematic diagnostic nationwide standardized criteria could be carried out to identify gaps on data gathering and analysis (i.e., in earthquake and flood monitoring forecasting methodologies) as well as capacity (e.g., seismometers, flood Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) gauges) to generate a prioritized action for early warning systems (i.e., an plan for developing a network of up-to-date training on current data, seismic and flood hazard monitoring tools, and products for early warning stations. This activity would involve systems and exchange activities procuring required monitoring between national meteorological and equipment, developing network hydrological services, DRM agencies, connectivity between stations as well and other stakeholders). as implementing state-of-the-art information management technology. A joint task force between the Ministry Such investments will require of Urban Development and Housing corresponding technical assistance, and the National DRM Commission including (a) evaluation of institutional can identify next steps to improve risk business model and service delivery information collection and sharing, capacity;44 (b) assessments of the roles, and coordination on DRM actions. Figure 4.1. Benefits and Results of a DRM Oversight Unit and a Comprehensive DRM strategy Recovery integrating Local DRM and Early Warning and DRM Unit long-term risk Contingency Plan Response reduction Such an evaluation would include (but not be limited to) three aspects: (1) institutional assessment, with special attention paid to budgeting, financ- 44 ing and cost-recovery when considering the sustainability of seismic and climate information services; (2) situation and gap analysis of observation networks and forecasting systems; and (3) assessment of the use and integration of seismic, meteorological and hydrological monitoring services within an overall disaster risk management framework. 105 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 7. Improve fire and rescue response equipment appropriate for city responses capacity by providing financial and to fire incidents. Special attention will technical support to fire services: A needs be paid to ensuring that equipment is assessment of the fire support services tailored for use in areas that experience will identify the specific training and chronic water shortages. Finally, fire equipment needed to improve response capacity for densely populated buildings services will be enabled to take a more and neighborhoods. An investment proactive role in assisting city officials in program will assist in providing mobile identifying building code violations that firefighting units and search and rescue could have fire safety implications. BOX 4.4. Improving Emergency Preparedness in the Regional Capitals Short-term priority investments (two- to three-year horizon) • Training and resources for key city officials responsible for DRM to enable them to implement national DRM policy • Technical support for a comprehensive all-hazards risk vulnerability assessment for each city • Technical support to develop city-level early warning strategies • An equipped Emergency Operation Center in each city to improve the capacity of first responders (fire, police, and emergency medical services) to provide fast and reliable emergency response. It may also include structural retrofits • Safety training and personal protective equipment (PPE) for fire response units Medium-term priority investments (five-year horizon) • Training for city officials and emergency responders in the implementation of National Incidence Management System (NIMS) • A public emergency preparedness program • Technical support for the development of a hazard mitigation plan for each city • City emergency operations plans, including development and testing • Technical support for a skill and salary review for fire responders at the city level per city • PPE and critical disaster response equipment for first responders • Technical support for the development of emergency response plans for industrial parks Long-term priority investments (ten-year horizon) • Support to implement strategic elements of city hazard mitigation plans • Training equipment for the National Fire Training Academy 106 Priority Actions and Investments Box 4.5 provides an example of how emergency management is structured in cities in other countries. BOX 4.5. An Example of City-level Emergency Management Structure York Region, Ontario, Canada The York Region (population 1,175,690) consists of nine local municipalities in the province of Ontario: Vaughan, King, East Gwillimbury, Newmarket, Georgina, Markham, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Whitchurch- Stoweville. As part of their legislative compliance, each municipality in Canada must appoint an Emergency Management Program Committee, consisting of at least two municipal employees with the authority and ability to provide strategic direction and make decisions about emergency management programming. Each municipality is also responsible for assigning a Community Emergency Management Coordinator, whose role is to implement and maintain a Municipal Emergency Management Program, as required by the Canadian Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act. In many municipalities, this individual is the Fire Chief, Police Chief, or Emergency Management Program Coordinator. This individual must complete a standardized training and earn a certification in emergency management at the municipal level Figure B4.5.1. York Region Emergency Management Structure (Ontario, Canada) • Supports the Ministry of Public implementation of Safety and the Canadian Emergency Emergency Preparedness Management and (federal government) Civil Protection Act. • Supports municipalities Provincial and ministries to imple- Emergency ment programs by pro- Management viding advice, assistance, Authority guidelines, training, and other tools. • Ensures compliance Municipal leadership with legislative (mayor, councillors, emergency chief administrative management officer) requirements. • Provides strategic direction and Emergency advice to the emer- Management gency Program management Committee program. Community • Implements Emergency the municipal emergency Management management Coordinator program Best practice is to have a dedicated person assigned as the community emergency management coordinator. For larger cities or cities that experience frequent disasters, however, it is not ideal for the fire or police chief to have the additional responsibilities of a community emergency management coordinator. 107 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 4.4. Improve Building those requiring structural upgrade and Regulatory Frameworks to retrofit. Mitigate Seismic Risk and Activity: Conduct Rapid Visual Enhance Overall Safety of the Screening of schools, hospitals and Built Environment critical public structures in Addis Rationale: The regional capitals are witnessing Ababa and 10-15 other cities of rapid growth in new construction but have Ethiopia. The RVS surveys will be limited capacity to ensure that the new and based on three parameters: exposure, existing structures are built to safely withstand vulnerability and occupancy. The earthquake, flooding, fire, spontaneous outcome of this activity will be collapse, and other harmful conditions. an inventory of public buildings Regulatory implementation and monitoring vulnerable to seismic and fire risks. can have significant impact on the long-term For structures identified as vulnerable safety, productivity, and resilience of the urban to floods, other measures will be built environment. Without improvements in suggested which may not be directly planning, building inspection and regulatory related to structural upgrade and departments, a significant proportion of the retrofit but may involve interventions regional capitals will be at risk from unsafe such as relocation or community-wide buildings susceptible to the above mentioned flood protection. The rapid review risks as well as many others. will provide the basis for conducting a more comprehensive structural Actions and Investments analysis to define priority structures to 8. Reduce risk in the existing built be retrofitted (with associated cost). environment: The proposed activities b. Funding facility for building retrofits: address the urgent need to reduce high risk The Government of Ethiopia has a situations that currently exist in the built significant public contingent liability to environment. They would serve as the bulk chronic risk and disaster—particularly of a recommended investment program in its built structures (i.e. schools, as they involve civil works and structural hospitals, government facilities). upgrading of public buildings. To reduce future potential risks of disasters, the Government can invest a. Funding Rapid Visual Screening in building retrofits and structural (RVS): There has been no recent upgrades to ensure public buildings comprehensive survey of prevailing (and the people they serve) are risks in the built environment with resilient to chronic risk and disaster. regard to vulnerability to seismic, flood and fire risks. Public schools and Activity: Based upon initial findings hospitals should receive the initial from the RVS, a more in-depth attention of a nationwide screening comprehensive structural assessment effort that would inform and help will be carried out. The outcome of this prioritize future retrofitting efforts activity will be a prioritized investment to be undertaken as part of a larger plan for structural retrofits—to be integrated investment on building financed with either government, safety. This activity would fund a development partner and/or survey of public buildings to identify multilateral development finance. 108 Priority Actions and Investments 9. Establish quality enhancement review and of IT infrastructure also undermines regulatory processes at national and local efforts to provide adequate levels levels: This includes the development of of information and transparency to a multitude of capacities—for building builders and owners. Improvements in and planning departments, design administrative efficiency consistently professionals, and construction workers— improve regulatory effectiveness. to build safe buildings. These activities are largely technical assistance in nature Activity: Conduct a preliminary detailed and will address the urgent need to ensure process-mapping and re-engineering quality of construction. This will entail of administrative procedures to quality requirements and code compliance determine appropriate technology and scope of modernization. This could be for buildings and will require well-trained carried out in building departments staff able to implement regulatory in Addis Ababa and 10-15 other processes and enhancement reviews. Ethiopian cities in the initial phase. Activities under this action address the An investment would likely support need to avoid building future structures new functions, including: updating that are unable to withstand shocks, and digitizing a database with spatial through the enhancement of existing data; digitizing archives of permits quality assurance mechanisms, as Ethiopia and other decisions; establishing a engages in a massive urban development workflow management tool (including boom over the next several decades. document management and Without improvements in its planning archiving); creating online submission and building inspection and regulation of building plans and issuance of departments, a significant proportion permits; training municipal building of Ethiopian cities will be at risk from officials on new processes; supporting unsafe buildings susceptible to structural field inspections using mobile devices; collapse, fire, earthquake and other risks. and supporting management reporting Ensuring the construction quality of new and oversight. buildings requires code compliance, which b. Training of building inspectors and can only be accomplished by appropriately building code officials: At the city staffing building and planning level, there is an insufficient number departments with well-trained staff as of qualified and specialized staff, well as implementing programs which which is a significant operational raise the capacity for safety among design challenge. Currently, there is a professionals, builders and construction shortage of specialized engineers in workers. building departments, especially in a. Information and communications electrical and sanitary engineering. technology (ICT) platforms for Building officials must demonstrate building and inspection departments: technical competency in areas of Building departments and building review and inspection for which they inspectorates are generally ill- have responsibility. The absence equipped with information technology of consistent qualifications and (IT) hardware and software, making specialized skills undermines the it difficult to conduct sufficient plan capacity of building departments and review and inspection. The absence building inspectorates to carry out 109 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia robust controls—both at the design However, the current procedure and construction stages. provides little guidance for reviewers and inspectors to conduct a more Activity: Carry out a training needs qualitative review that includes code assessment at the national level, and compliance from planning through train building inspectors and building construction. code officials in Addis Ababa and 10-15 other Ethiopian cities with a focus on Activity: To enhance current permitting teaching and familiarizing technical and inspection procedures, current and engineering municipal staff with Standard Operating Procedures the new building code requirements. will be updated to include a how-to guide for building code officials, plan c. Training of private engineers and reviewers and inspectors to conduct a tradesmen: There is no qualitative more performance-based review and assessment of professional inspection of plans and structures. capacity for building practitioners, Such procedures can include improved including engineers and architects. checklists involving more complex Professionals are only evaluated inspections on potential building based on their years of experience performance as well as identifying and the number of projects they focal points in the federal ministry have worked on, irrespective of the and academia to advise on more degree of complexity. A widespread complex issues. Standard coordination concern in Ethiopia is the limited procedures should also be laid out capacity and workmanship of lower in this regard. The SOP will also level contractors, vocational workers include a standardized report-back and tradesmen. These issues lead to mechanism documenting outcomes insufficient and inconsistent levels of of the review and inspection to qualifications of building practitioners. enhance transparency and improve communication between building Activity: Conduct a comprehensive officials and building professionals. capacity needs assessment, in partnership with the Ministry of e. Enhance soils and construction Construction, building professional materials testing facilities: Regional associations and academia. This testing facilities often lack the needed activity will support the Construction financial and technical resources Management Institute and other as well as equipment to conduct relevant partners in designing, setting appropriate testing of soils and up and delivering needed training construction materials—especially for programs for engineers, architects, high-rise construction. tradesmen and vocational workers Activity: Conduct a comprehensive on topics ranging from risk-informed needs assessment of facilities design to good construction practice and equipment to test soils and and occupational health and safety. construction materials—with d. Enhanced Permitting and Inspection particular attention to identifying Procedures: Currently, a procedure is in equipment required to test place for plan review and inspection. building materials used in high-rise 110 Priority Actions and Investments construction (e.g., tensile testing As a part of the integrated and resilient for rebar, compressive strength urban development plan, investments testing for concrete). Based upon in the following key sectoral priorities is this assessment, produce a detailed proposed for all cities: procurement plan for critical missing (i) Solid waste management (SWM): testing equipment for soils and Improve SWM collection services building materials. This activity will primarily for communities exposed also include corresponding training in to flooding; ensure appropriate equipment operation and use. disposal of solid waste by developing 4.5. Support the Key Sectoral appropriate disposal sites; and Priorities develop integrated SWM plans for each city, taking into consideration future Rationale: Sectoral assessment carried out needs; during this TA found that a number of steps are needed to ensure robust functioning of the key (ii) Water supply and sanitation: To city sectors to improve resilience. Specifically, improve water security, improve SWM affects functioning of drainage systems in the quality of services and capacity the cities, increases flooding risk, and also affects of water utilities, making the sector disease outbreaks. Water supply and sanitation more inclusive, reliable, and robust. remains critical because water scarcity can Special attention should be given to jeopardize cities’ functioning and health and conserving water sources, avoiding safety. Better transport and roads are needed to overexploitation, and monitoring and ensure timely response to emergencies in at-risk recharging the aquifers; areas of the cities (such as informal markets and (iii) Transportation: Improve settlements). Rehabilitation of energy networks accessibility to at-risk areas of the is needed to avoid fire incidents caused by cities (such as informal markets), faulty wiring, as well as to ensure a 24-hour schools (often used as shelters) network for efficient functioning of hospitals, and hospitals; improve public schools, businesses, and offices. Equally transportation services, reduce essential, improvements in urban finance are congestion, and increase safety needed not only to ensure financial resources measures; and foster the development for infrastructure and services but also for of integrated land use, transportation, contingency funds during emergency. and drainage plans; 10. Support key sectoral priorities: To (iv) Energy: Rehabilitate and expand improve inter-sectoral and coordination, distribution networks to reduce data collection and management, and fire incidents and increase access; technical and financial capacity, an inter- improve the use of renewable energy sectoral committee can review current sources while increasing robustness, coordination mechanisms and suggest redundancy, and reliability; and improvements, especially with regard to developing integrated and resilient urban (v) Urban finance: Improve policies development and capital improvement for collection and use of municipal plans. A national think tank can potentially revenues, develop a contingency plan support regional capitals and secondary and dedicate funds to improve access cities to improve overall technical capacity. to finance during emergencies. 111 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Table 4.1 summarizes the priority interventions identified during the CityStrength Diagnostic exercise, and includes proposed implementing agencies. Table 4.1 Priority Interventions, and Implementation Responsibility Implementation Timeline Actions and Investments Responsibility I. Effectively manage rapid urban growth in a risk-sensitive manner, focusing on the most vulnerable 1. Develop integrated, coordinated, and risk-sensitive urban Short term CA, ULGs, MoUDH, master planning, implementation, and monitoring processes Short to CA, ULGs, MoUDH, 2. Resolve housing crisis and support the most vulnerable medium term relevant line ministries II. Better management of flooding and water scarcity 3. Plan and implement integrated flood risk management in all CA, ULGs, MoUDH, MoWIE, Short term regional capitals NDRMC Short to CA, ULGs, MoUDH, MoWIE, 4. Resolve water scarcity medium term NDRMC III. Improve disaster preparedness including fire safety and response CA, ULGs, MoUDH, Short term 5. Establish Disaster Risk Management institutional framework NDRMC Short to 6. Improve disaster data collection, risk assessment, and ULGs, MoUDH, NDRMC, medium term information sharing CA Short to 7. Improve fire and rescue response capacity by providing ULGs, MoUDH, NDRMC, medium term financial and technical support to fire services CA IV. Improve building regulatory framework to mitigate seismic risk and enhance overall safety 8. Reduce risk in existing environment by assessing key MoC, MoUDH, RB, CA, Short term infrastructure to be retrofitted and developing an investment ULGs plan Short to 9. Establish Quality Enhancement Review and regulatory MoC, MoUDH, RB, CA, medium term process at national and local levels ULGs IV. Support key sector priorities 10. Support key sectoral priorities as a part of integrated and CA, ULGs, MoUDH, Medium term resilient urban development relevant line ministries Note on abbreviations: CA: City Administration; MoC: Ministry of Construction; MoUDH: Ministry of Urban Development and Housing; MoWIE: Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity; NDRMC: National Disaster Risk Management Commission; RB: Regional Bureaus; ULGs: Urban Local Governments. Moving forward with the resilience agenda will require mainstreaming the above-mentioned priorities in relevant government and donor programs, such as the Urban Local Government Development Project, Urban Safety Net Project, as well as sectoral priorities and programs. At the same time, a dedicated investment program will be needed to support core resilience priorities (see Box 4.6 below). 112 Priority Actions and Investments BOX 4.6. A Safe and Resilient Cities Program in Ethiopia Proposed Objective: The overall objective of the proposed intervention is to strengthen preparedness and response to disaster and climate risks in Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and the regional capitals, focusing on reducing vulnerability of the current and future built environment. Expected Results: The proposed intervention will enhance the capacity of targeted city administrations to effectively prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters and other emergency events. It will improve flood, fire and earthquake preparedness and response, strengthen risk sensitive and integrated land use planning and implementation, and the quality of new building construction, with the following anticipated results: 1. Build effective local capacity for incorporating disaster and climate risk in integrated land use plans; 2. Establish effective emergency preparedness and response to all emergencies, particularly flooding, fire, and earthquake; 3. Provide a safer built environment, via: 4. Improved built environment including capacity to enforce the quality of new building construction and development of a program to reduce existing physical vulnerability; 5. Effective and well-functioning urban drainage network; and 6. Improved urban watershed management, with effective preparedness for flooding and water scarcity. Proposed Interventions: Three main components include: 1. Improving climate and disaster risk management will require: • Establishing a climate and DRM unit with a dedicated staff and budget within the city administrations or Urban Local Governments, and developing national and regional capacity to improve coordination during emergencies; • Improving disaster data collection, risk assessment, and information sharing, and linking it with risk-sensitive and integrated development; and • Special attention is required to improve flood warning, earthquake alert, fire and rescue response capacity by providing financial and technical support to local emergency operation centers or fire departments, and improving coordination and connectivity from national and regional levels to cities. 2. Safer built environment: The following priority reforms are proposed to ensure effective regulatory processes and a culture of compliance: • Avoid the creation of new risks by enhancing existing quality assurance mechanisms, including the development of capacity for building and planning departments, design professionals and construction workers; • Reduce risk in the existing built environment by prioritizing retrofit programs, initially targeting public buildings, schools and hospitals. 3. Risk mitigation investments: Resilient development during rapid and unprecedented urban growth requires integrated, coordinated, and risk-sensitive urban planning, followed by adequate implementation and monitoring processes. Two key risk mitigation options are proposed: • Planning and implementing integrated urban water and flood risk management, including drainage network solutions; and • Implement integrated and risk-sensitive development in selected high-risk areas, including building retrofitting within cities, prioritizing the most vulnerable population. 113 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Making the Case for Resilience 2050. If building regulation practices are improved and if it were possible to ensure Investment in improving resilience—better compliance with seismic design codes, hazard considerations in land use, building estimated AAL would be cut by about 30 regulations and sectoral planning, as well percent, to US$90 million, a net annual as improved emergency preparedness in reduction of about US$38 million. Thus, for Ethiopian regional capitals would provide many example, an investment of US$10 million benefits. The most obvious benefit is the lives in improving building regulation would and property saved in disaster or emergency be expected to result in savings of about situations. A dramatic reduction in fatalities US$600 million from earthquake losses and serious injuries and less diversion of city alone, or very approximately a benefit-cost resources to disaster response and recovery can ratio of 60. strengthen trust in and legitimacy of government structures and authority, opportunities for While Ethiopian cities are not exposed optimization of resources, and conformity to to severe earthquakes, even moderate international standards and practices. events can cause huge human and economic losses. Such events are not Benefits of improving building regula- to be dismissed; in 1906, a magnitude tions 6.8 earthquake occurred within tens Just by improving the provision and enforcement of kilometers of Addis Ababa. For of building regulations, potential losses from comparison, in 1960, a magnitude 5.7 fire, earthquake and flooding can be reduced earthquake in Agadir (Morocco)—a city considerably. An assessment carried out for this which had construction very similar to that study found the following benefits (See Annex 3 in Ethiopia—caused significant damages for details): and nearly 12,000 deaths. • Improved compliance with fire safety • If flood management practices were measures could save 160,000 lives by improved, it is estimated that the AAL 2050: The estimated number of lives saved would be reduced to about US$93 is based on data-driven estimates of the million, a net annual reduction of benefits of improved fire protection that about US$230 million each year: If flood would result from compliance with the fire management practices were improved,45 code, improved construction and egress, estimated AAL would be reduced to about installation of sprinklers and the assurance US$93 million, a net annual reduction of fire-resistance materials. of about US$230 million each year. For the purpose of this estimate, the term • Compliance with building seismic “improved practices” refers to compliance provisions would reduce Average Annual with appropriate design and land use Losses by 30 percent by 2050, from requirements and better facilities for US$128 million to US$90 million: Under structural flood control.46 current building regulation practices, particularly in urban areas, estimated AAL would increase to US$128 million by 45 Improvement in flood management practices were quantified based on the assumption that urban areas would receive flood protection measures equivalent to a 100-year flood, and other areas equivalent to a 50 year flood. 46 Such facilities would typically involve levees, flood walls, dams and bypass structures. The investment required to achieve the assumed level of flood improvement is currently not quantified. 114 Priority Actions and Investments Achievement of local goals, economic development gains, rapid economic growth and growth, and job creation urbanization present an opportunity to improve All the regional capitals want to attract cities’ resilience and economic competitiveness. investment and become cities with a vibrant The findings and recommendations of this report local economy and better quality of life. aim to help Ethiopia address urban challenges, Achieving these goals will require investing in highlighting the need for long-term investment improving resilience. Resilience investment in strengthening resilience. has considerable benefits for cities, measured Bringing transformative change to Ethiopia’s not only in terms of lives saved and damages regional capitals will require sustained averted, but also in terms of economic growth leadership and changes in behavior at all from infrastructure built or enhanced, services levels, along with access to finance, enhanced delivered, or increased supply of developable incentives for local leaders, and improving land (i.e., land not contaminated or located in advocacy and awareness through media. areas at high-risk for natural disaster). Economic Capacity building at all levels will be essential. growth also stems from increased land values Development of a national think tank can following on investment in environmental improve overall technical capacity in the regional remediation or infrastructure investments capitals and secondary cities. To keep up the protecting land from natural disasters. All these momentum, enthusiasm and incentives—for measures improve the competitiveness of cities government staff, local leaders, NGOs/CSOs, and make them more appealing for investors. and local universities—will have to be explored. More assurance for investors who can anticipate This will require a review of current awards and fewer disaster losses, leading to increased salary, and recommendations for other ways of private investment in homes, buildings, and supporting momentum, such as through study visits. National, regional and local advocacy on other properties that comply with safety preparedness for shocks and stresses will require standards, increased capital investment in incorporating resilience-based lessons in school infrastructure, including retrofitting, renovation, curricula, incorporating drills in schools and and renewal, and increased tax base, business raising citizen awareness through media and opportunities, economic growth, and other sources. Finally, and most importantly, it employment as safer and better-governed cities will be critical to access finance for investing in attract more investment. Many cities, such as urban resilience. Potential approaches include Hawassa, are attracting investments through international and national climate and DRM industrial parks. Yet even a single seismic or funds, innovative financing by establishing a disaster event can affect a city’s competitiveness local fund, and exploring ways of involving the in attracting and retaining private investments. private sector. Looking Forward: Investment in Ethiopia is at a crossroads. Urban development Resilience for Thriving Cities with a business-as-usual approach will lead to Ethiopia is well-positioned to enhance resilience higher impacts from future disasters and climate in its capital and secondary cities. These urban change, threatening viability of urban centers centers are the engines of economic growth, and development gains to date. 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ANNEXES 121 Photo: Dereje ©Shutterstock.com Annex 1: List of Key Stakeholders from City Administrations Adama: Ato Aman Hussien (City Manager, Adama City Administration); Ato Abera Sori (Head of Urban Development, Adama City Administration); Ato Ahmed Bekeli (Head of Housing Office, Adama City Administration); Ato Lema Asfaw (Head, Environmental Protection Office, Adama City Administration); Ato Fekadu Dubisa (Building Chief, Adama City Administration); Ato Rashid Kedir (City Profile Head, Adama City Administration); Ato Negassa Lemi (Head, Water Supply and Sanitation, Adama City Administration); Ato Muluneh Dhabesa (Head, Urban Beautification and Greenery, Adama City Administration); Ato Aman Kedir (Head of Transport Office, Adama City Administration); W/ro Tigist Girma (Head of Land Administration, Adama City Administration); Ato Yoannes Garedew (Head of Finance Office, Adama City Administration); and Ato Dawit Abera (Head of Labour & Social Affairs, Adama City Administration). Addis Ababa: Ato Walellign Desalegn (Director, Rivers, River Sides Development and Climate Change Adaptation Project Office, Addis Ababa City Administration); Ato Moges Agonafir (Expert, Road Maintenance Department, Addis Ababa City Administration); Ms. Fikrete Mamo (Road Management Officer, Addis Ababa Roads Authority, Addis Ababa City Administration), Ato Efrem Bekele (Team Leader, Addis Ababa and Surrounding Oromiya Integrated Master Plan Project Office, Addis Ababa City Administration). Assosa: Ato Tewfik Abdulkayoum (Mayor, Assosa City Administration); Ato Temesgen Disassa (Head, Bureau of Urban Development and Housing, Beneshangul Gumz Region); Ato Asadik Abas (City Manager, Assosa City Administration); Ato Bderdin Ahmed (Transport Head, Assosa City Administration); Ato Misganaw Tesfa (Expert, Urban Greenery and Solid Waste office, Assosa City Administration); Ato Abdulaziz (Head, Water Supply and Sanitation Office, Assosa City Administration); W/ro Sinknesh Haile (Head, Finance Office, Assosa City Administration); Ato Ahmed Yahi (Expert, Construction Management, Assosa City Administration); Ato Fida Workineh (Expert, Disaster Risk Management Office, Assosa City Administration); and Ato Senai Lema (Head, Urban Development and Housing Office, Assosa City Administration). Bahir Dar: Ato Kidane Miskr(City Manager, Bahir Dar City Administration); Ato Asnake Yirgu (Department Head, Bureau of Urban Development & Construction, Amhara Region); Ato Yibeltal Yeshaneh (Housing Office Head, Bahir Dar City Administration); Ato Animaw Mekonnen (Land Administration Head, Bahir Dar City Administration); Kibret Achamyeleh (Building Permit Chief, Bahir Dar City Administration); Ato Abiy Sisay (Deputy Head, Water Supply and Sanitation, Bahir Dar City Administration); Ato Fisseha Tezzara (Head, Fire Protection, Bahir Dar City Administration); Ato Habtamu Wubalem (Head, Labour and Social Affairs Office, Bahir Dar City Administration); Dr. Dereje Tsegaye (Lecturer, Bahir Dar University, DRM Department); Ato Abyot Aizoh (Construction Ato Shewaferaw Mergia Engineer, Bahir Dar City Administration); Dr. Amlaku Asres (Head, Organization for Rehabilitation and Development in Amhara); (Expert, Construction Management Office, Bahir Dar City Administration); and Ato Zelalem Getahun (Head, Beautification and Greenery office, Bahir Dar City Administration). Dire Dawa: Ato Adem Farah (Head of Bureau of Urban Development and Housing and Deputy Mayor of Dire Dawa City Administration); Ms. Saadia Ahmed (Head, DRMC Office, Dire Dawa City Administration); Ato Faisel Abdulahi (Department Head, Disaster Protection and Food Security Office, Dire Dawa City 123 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Administration Ato Binyam); Ato Mesfin Yimer (Expert, Disaster Protection and Food Security Office, Dire Dawa City Administration); Ato Wondimagegn Beri (DRM Specialist, Disaster Protection and Food Security Office, Dire Dawa City Administration); Ato Gebeyehu Tilahun (Chief of Mayor’s Office, Dire Dawa City Administration); Gebretensai (Construction Permit Head, Dire Dawa City Administration); Inspector Abraham G/Egziabhier (Fire Protection Coordinator, Dire Dawa Police, Dire Dawa City Administration); Ato Bekele Desalegn (Expert, Urban Development and Construction, Dire Dawa City Administration); Ato Biruk Bekele (Head, Water Supply and Sanitation, Dire Dawa City Administration); Ato Yalew Assefa (Head, Sanitation and Beatification, Dire Dawa City Administration); Rahel Demeke, (Expert, Labour and Social Affairs Office, Dire Dawa City Administration); and the entire Dire Dawa Red Cross Society Staff for their collaboration. Gambella: Ato Akane Opada (Mayor, Gambella City Administration); Ato Obom Ojullu (Former Mayor, Gambella City Administration); Ato Thokhat Bichok Door (Project Engineer, Infrastructure Office, Gambella City Administration); Ato Simon Tiach (City Manager, Gambella City Administration); Ato Tut Ganwan (Finance Head, Gambella City Administration); Ato Oman Nyigow (Head of Revenue Office, Gambella City Administration); and W/ro Aromochan Ojulu (Head, Women and Children Affairs, Gambella city Administration). Harar: W/ro Shukria Ahmed (City Manager, Harar Municipality), Ato Mohamed Nuredin, (Deputy Head, Bureau of Urban Development and Construction, Harari Regional State); Ato Mariwan Adem (Planning Department Head, Harar Municipality); Ato Atham Mohammed (Deputy Head, Finance and Economic Development Bureau, Harari Regional State); Abdulhakim Abibeker (Water Supply Head, Harar Municipality), Ato Abdulhafiz Abdulwasi (Head, Urban Planning Department, Harar Municipality); Abdukur Abdurahman (Chief Inspector and Coordinator, Fire Protection, Police Commission, Harari Regional Government); Ato Sultan Haji Temam, (Head, Environmental Protection Authority, Harari Regional Government); and Ato Endale Mengesha, Social Protection Process Head, Labor and Social Affairs Bureau, Harari Regional Government). Hawassa: Ato Tewodros Gebiba (Mayor, Hawassa City Administration); Ato Mebrate Melese, (Advisor to the Mayor, Hawassa City Administration); Ato Yilma Suntuz (V/Head of Industry & Urban Development, Bureau of Urban Development and Housing, SNNPR); Ato Damte Data (Project Coordinator, Bureau of Urban Development and Housing, SNNPR); Ato Worku Thomas (Expert, Hawassa City Administration); Ato Teshale Wante (Expert, Hawassa City Administration); Commander Derese Busaro (Chief, Fire Protection, Hawassa City Administration); D/Sergant Tadese Hamito (Head of Traffic, Hawassa City Administration); Iyasu Nejo (Head, DRM office, Hawassa City Administration); Ato Dembeshu Neare (Acting Vice President, Hawassa University); Ato Belachew Yaekob (Lecturer, Hawassa University); and from the Sidama Zone Red Cross, Ato Dawit Baekele, Sister Hana Mamo and Ato Ababe Wana. Jigjiga: Ato Ahmed Mohamoud (Mayor, Jigjiga City Administration); Ato Fraham Mohamed (City Manager, Jigjiga City Administration); Ato Nieman Umar, (Infrastructure Process Head, Jigjiga City Administration); Ato Beshir Mohammed (Bureau Head, Urban Development and Housing, Somali Regional State); Ato Mohammed Ahmed (Environment Specialist, Jigjiga City Administration); Ato Anas Sherf (Building Permit Head, Jigjiga City Administration), Ato Gosaye Fiseha (Engineer, Urban Local Government Development Program, Jigjiga City Administration); and Ato Mohamed Abdurahman (Finance Expert, Jigjiga City Administration). 124 Annex 1 Mekelle: Ato Tesfalem Hadush (Mayor’s Representative, Mekelle City Administration), Ato Goitom G/ Meskel (Program Coordinator, Tigray Region Bureau of Urban Development, Industry and Trade); Ato Senay Ebisa (Head, Urban Development, Mekelle City Administration); Ato Gebremichael Hayelom (Acting Head, Construction and Transport Office, Mekelle City Administration); Ato Kahsay Hailu (Building Chief, Mekelle City Administration); and Girmay Berehe, (Finance Head, Mekelle City Administration) Semera–Logia: Ato Yasin Mohamed Umer (Mayor, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ato Abdulkadir Mohammed (Head, Bureau of Urban Development and Housing, Afar Region); Ato Anuar Ahmed (Head, construction Management Office, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ato Abdela Abdu (Head, Water Supply and Sanitation, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ato Anuar Mohamed (Head, Environment Protection Office, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ms. Fatuma Abdu (Head, Urban Greenery & Solid Waste Management, Semera-Logia City Administration); Ato Raja Yimer (Finance Head, Semera- Logia City Administration); Ato Mesube Idris (Head, Labour and Social Affairs Office, Semera-Logia City Administration). 125 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Annex 2: Population Projection for Regional Capitals The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia conducts a population census every 10 years. Three censuses have been conducted, in 1984, 1994, and 2007. On the basis of the census results, the CSA projects the population of the country at national, regional, woreda, and city levels. The CSA also conducted an inter-censal population survey (ICPS) in 2012 to measure changes since 2007(CSA, 2013a). In 2014, the CSA projected the 2014-2017 population using the component method on the basis of 2007 Census results, various Demographic and Health Study (DHS) reports (2000, 2005, 2011), and International Center for Prison Studies (ICPS) (2012)(CSA, 2013c). The projection was made for regions, zones, and woredas. Towns with woreda status are also included in the projection. Most regional capitals have either woreda or zonal status and thus have population projections for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. The CSA has not yet made a projection of city population beyond 2017. In this study, a projection for 2017–2037 is filled by using the 2017 CSA projection as the base year and then applying the country-level estimate made by the World Bank for different years (see Table A1.1). Table A1.1 National Urbanization Projected Growth Rate Year Growth Rate (%) 2007–2012 5.6 2012–2017 5.6 2017–2022 5.4 2022–2027 5.3 2027–2032 5.2 2032–2037 5.0 Source: World Bank, 2015. Ethiopian Urbanization Review 126 Annex 2 Table A1.2 provides the population projection for different cities on the basis of the CSA projection and Table A1.1. Table A1.2. Population Projection of Regional Capitals Regional 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Capitals Census Census CSA CSA Addis 2,084,588 2,738,248 3,195,000 3,433,999 4,466,869 5,782,892 7,451,158 9,509,776 Ababa Adama 127,842 220,212 308,526 355,475 462,394 598,624 771,317 984,417 Assosa 11,749 24,214 43,203 52,575 68,388 88,537 114,078 145,596 Bahir Dar 96,140 155,428 266,667 362,297 471,268 610,112 786,119 1,003,309 Dire Dawa 173,188 232,854 268,000 293,000 381,128 493,415 635,757 811,405 Gambella 18,263 39,022 62,093 74,102 96,390 124,789 160,788 205,211 Harar 76,378 99,368 125,000 137,000 178,207 230,710 297,265 379,394 Hawassa 69,169 157,139 285,785 335,508 436,421 564,999 727,992 929,123 Jigjiga 56,821 125,876 154,183 169,390 220,339 285,255 367,546 469,092 Mekelle 96,938 215,914 307,304 358,529 466,367 603,767 777,943 992,875 Semera- 3,775 16,663   19,749 25,689 33,258 42,852 54,691 Logia 127 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Annex 3. City Profiles: Shocks and Stresses in Regional Capitals and Dire Dawa City Administration This Annex presents profiles for each of the nine regional capitals and Dire Dawa City Administration. The profiles include geographic and demographic information, and then elaborate on shocks, stresses and priorities identified during the CityStrength Diagnostic workshops. The shocks and stresses have been color-coded based on their recurrence and level of impact on city, starting with red for the most severe, followed by orange and yellow. This Annex presents city profiles in the following order: 1. Adama 2. Assosa 3. Bahir Dar 4. Dire Dawa 5. Gambella 6. Harar 7. Hawassa 8. Jigjiga 9. Mekelle 10. Semera Logia  128 Annex 3 1. ADAMA I. Overview: Adama is the capital of the eastern Shewa zone and the Adama district of the Oromiya Region with 14 urban and 4 rural ‘kebele’ administrations. It is located 100 km south east of Addis Ababa in the Ethiopia rift valley area. Locational opportunities such as proximity to Addis Ababa, railway to Djibouti, and the highway to Harar are major contributing factors for its growth. The city is projected to reach close to 1 million residents by 2037 (CSA, WB). The city’s location in the Ethiopia rift valley, a seismic active area, makes it prone to earthquakes. With an average altitude of 1620 miles above sea level, the city has relatively a flat topography and it lies in a sub humid tropical zone with an average annual temperature of 21°C. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: Applying the national urban growth rate estimated by the World Bank, the population of Adama is projected to reach close to a million people by 2037 (Figure 1). One of the reasons for the fast population growth is migration. The 1994 and 2007 censuses revealed that the proportions of migrants in the city were 53.2% and 59.2 % respectively. Furthermore, the satellite image of the city shows that the city has grown from 2.7 sq km in 1973 to nearly 42 sq km in 2016 (figure 2). In general, the city expansion appears to be in a concentric form from the center outward. The city sprawled beyond its physical boundary delineated by CSA after 2000. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Adama Physical growth of Adama city 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and own computation on the basis Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data of WB estimate 129 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia III. Summary of Shocks and Stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Flooding Flooding is a significant natural hazard in Adama city attributed to its location within the flat lying rift. The main causes of flooding are heavy rain, high water table, and culvert damage or blockage (Getahun, 1987). Even if there is no historical recorded on the number of human life casualties, flooding in Adama city has been posing severe challenges to city dwellers due to the lack of an appropriate sewerage system both in terms of quality and capacity. Fire Fires are attributed to unsafe cooking practices and poor electrical wiring. The city doesn’t have adequate fire-fighting preparedness. For example, firefighters cannot reach fires that break out in high rise buildings, and there is an insufficient number of fire hydrants and sprinkler systems. Similarly, the fire brigade lacks a sufficient number of fire trucks. Fires especially affect informal markets, which directly affect the livelihoods of residents. Informal settlements are highly vulnerable to fire since the construction materials are often easily flammable and fire spreads easily due to high density areas. Earthquakes The city is located with the East-Africa Rift Valley, a seismically sensitive area of the country. However, the city is not prepared for earthquakes. Overall, there is a lack of enforcement and supervision of the implementation of building codes. Therefore, as the city continues to grow, the built environment remains vulnerable to seismic shocks. Landslide and Rockslides are common features observed around the city, especially along the ridges Volcano exploited by quarrying. Hazard assessment found Adama at risk of volcanic flow. Major stresses Stresses* Remark Water shortage Adama uses water from the Awash River and groundwater. The rapidly increasing population and huge investments in socioeconomic and industrial establishments make the supply of additional water indispensable. For example, the industrial park that is planned for the city will attract tens of thousands of people to the city. At present, the city’s residents already face severe shortages of water. Supply has been completely stopped in the northern parts of the city for more than a year. In other areas of the city, it is being distributed on a rationed basis every three or four days. Shortage Housing shortage is a major challenge. As of 2015, the ratio of people needing access to of housing housing per 1,000 people in Adama was 104.7 (SECR, 2015). The city also contains a huge and illegal number of informal housing that is becoming a challenge for the city. Adama has also been settlements experiencing the highest level of informal expansion reported as 1,138.34 ha in 2012 (SECR, 2015). The industrial park that Adama will host will attract people to the city and will thus exacerbate the housing challenge. 130 Annex 3 Drainage The city has poor drainage capacity which exacerbates the flooding problem. During the city consultations, the city mentioned that flooding in the middle of the city is caused by inadequate drainage which leads to run off. The studies on the drainage system need to be updated with latest information. Solid waste Different aspects of SWM, such as land fill and public awareness initiatives, are yet to be collection and implemented in the city. In 2007, the city was able to collect 35% of the waste generated disposal (Dereje, 2001). The remaining waste is usually indiscriminately disposed of in drainage lines, open spaces, street sides and/or is informally burned. Currently, the city does not have a sanitary landfill and it lacks an adequate number of staff and equipment (SECR, 2015). Insufficient finance is a major obstacle to improve the quality and expand the coverage of SWM services. In addition to waste from individuals, as the city continues to grow and establish itself as a manufacturing center, industrial waste will also increase (SECR, 2015). Traffic accident Due to its strategic location along the railway line and at the junction of major routes to Addis Ababa and Harar, Adama has become a city with high frequency and severity of traffic accidents. For example, the data available at the city’s transport authority office revealed that during a ten-year period (2004/05-2014-15), there were 264 deaths, 283 serious injuries, 359 minor injuries and 1,043 property damages. Some of the contributing factors for the traffic accidents include the city form which concentrates goods and services in the central part which leads to congestion, a lack of appropriate taxi stations, a shortage of appropriate sidewalks for pedestrians, and a large number of three wheelers which dominate the transport system although they don’t represent a safe mode of transportation. *Other stresses listed by the city include energy shortages and inadequate sanitation IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Long term land use/drainage master plan: The city needs to develop a long term land use/ drainage master plan with a long term vision that accommodates the increasing population due to rapid industrialization of the city. It is also important to prepare a complementary implementation plan. • Integrated urban water management: Flooding and water scarcity are two major issues in the city. There is therefore a need to implement an integrated urban water management approach to deal with the issues. The approach should also take solid waste, informal settlements and environmental issues into account. • Housing Development: Universal access to safe housing with basic services is the basic necessity for city dwellers. The provision of safe housing should prioritize those in the high-risk areas. • Improving the reliability of electricity provision: Electric outage and interruptions are common problems of electricity supply affecting both households and businesses. Electric provision should be improved by adding a new substation and upgrading the existing one. • Traffic management: Traffic congestion and traffic accidents are very severe in the city. There is a need to develop a traffic management plan and enhance implementation capacity. • Creation of jobs and employment: The level of unemployment rate in the city is one of the highest in the country. As the city continues to attract migrants from the surrounding areas, the problem of unemployment will become more severe. Employment opportunities need to be provided for the growing population. 131 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 2. ASSOSA I. Overview: Assosa, one of the border cities of Ethiopia, is the regional capital of Benishangul- Gumuz Regional Stat. Assosa city is located at a distance of 687 km from Addis Ababa. The city has economic linkages with the surrounding cities such as Gimbe, Nekemte and Nejo. The growth rate registered by the city during the inter-censal period is the highest next to Gambella City. The western and north-western parts of the region have low-lying areas or lowlands (under 1,500m) while the northern part has highlands (2,500m). The major river basins in the region are Abay, Beles, Dedessa, Dura, and Dabus. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth:The CSA (2013) projection estimated the population of the city to be over 50,000 by 2017. Applying the national urban growth rate estimated by the World Bank based on CSA data, the population is projected to reach over 100,000 by 2032 and close to 150,000 by 2037 (Figure 1). The city has the highest proportion of migrants (68.14%) in comparison to other cities of emerging regions. The satellite imagery for the city shows that the city has grown from an area of 0.2 sq km in 1973 to 10.7 sq km in 2016 (Figure 2). This is nearly a 20-fold increase in areal size. The city has grown in a concentric manner and has stayed mostly within the administrative boundary. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Assosa Physical growth of Assosa 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and author’s own computation on Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data the basis of WB estimate 132 Annex 3 III. Summary of Shocks and Stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Landslide Landslides occur due to physical and morphological factors, mostly during rainy season. Landslides cut roads off and affect neighborhoods. Flood Flooding in the city is extensive and affects significant portions of the city. For instance, in 2016, flooding affected three kebeles and the market place. Similar to other cities, inadequate drainage system and solid waste management system contributes to flooding events. The city does not have a land use plan that takes into account locations that are vulnerable to flooding. Fire Fire occurs in the city and is exacerbated by a limited fire control systems and preparedness. The government is prioritizing creating awareness of harmful traditional practices, such as grass burning, and strengthening fire control mechanisms. Major Stresses Stresses Remark Lack of Poor infrastructural development is one of the critical obstacles to ensuring the smooth adequate functioning of the city. Concerning access to piped sewerage, the city does not have a infrastructure modern liquid waste sewerage network system. In 2007, the municipality was capable of collecting only 12.3% of the solid waste generated (CSA, 2007). In 2014, the city had a total length of 67.2 km of road, with paved road representing 27.9 km or 41.5%. This proportion is the highest compared with the average of the cities of the emerging regions, but lower than the average of the other 27 major urban centers in the country (46.9%). The city also faces a weak integrated water and solid waste management system, and poor energy and water supply infrastructure. Housing shortage The state of Ethiopian cities study revealed that as of 2015, the ratio of people needing and informal access to housing per 1,000 was 65.7 and the total housing demand between 2000-2006 was settelments 1,889 (SECR, 2015). Informal settlements are occupying a significant part of the city. During city consultations, the city representatives listed as one of the priorities development of an effective housing program including public houses, rentals, cooperatives and private housing. Poverty and Based on the CSA (2014) unemployment survey, the total unemployment rate of the city was unemployment 15.9%. This level of unemployment is slightly lower than the national urban unemployment rate, which was 17.4% in 2014; however, unemployment still represents a significant challenge for the city. The poverty headcount for Assosa city for 2010/11 was 34.8% and is thus much higher than the national level of poverty. Lack of The city in particular and the region in general need improvements in institutions, human implementation resources and systems. Implementation capacity is affected by lack of budget and capacity resources. Note: The city also listed storms as a shock and water scarcity, increasing temperatures, and traffic accidents as stresses. 133 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Improve flood risk management: In Assosa, flooding is caused by inadequate drainage system and a poor solid waste management system. If the city can install a proper drainage and SWM system, this will help in reducing the waste and also reducing the problem of flooding. Risk informed land use system is needed to reduce flooding. This will require identifying flood- prone areas and flood plains, and put in place zoning and other protective measures such as plantations, gabions etc. • Strengthen fire control mechanisms: Grass burning is mostly undertaken by farmers with the assumption that it improves soil fertility. In the process, fire can damage property and even lead to loss of human life. The city thus needs to develop specific capabilities that can mitigate the effects of fire and fire related disasters. This involved improving emergency response capacity. • Integrated planning and financing of infrastructure: One of the major stresses the city is currently facing is poor infrastructure and services needed for the smooth functioning of the city. The infrastructure and services in poor condition include water supply, drainage systems, roads, electricity, landfill, and the waste management system. The city needs to invest in these critical areas in a manner that will improve the service delivery function of the city. • Ensure skills development and job creation: Poverty and unemployment are critical problems the city faces. The fact that poverty is much higher than the national average signals its urgency. One of the ways to reduce poverty is to develop the skills of the labor force, create jobs and use necessary inputs such as credit facilities. • Develop an effective housing program: The city has a high demand for housing. It is important to strengthen the housing stock and quality to address the increasing demand. The city government can provide a mix of housing options including public housing, rentals, cooperatives and private housing. It should also involve finding appropriate way of managing informal settlements. 134 Annex 3 3. BAHIR DAR I. Overview: Bahir Dar is the capital city of the Amhara region and attained metropolitan status in 2011 with the satellite towns of Meshenti, Tis Aba and Zige. There are 18 kebeles; nine of them are found in Bahir Dar city and the rest are in rural areas. The city of Bahir Dar is one of the fastest growing and the third largest city in the country. It’s also a growing tourist destination because of Lake Tana, Tis Esat fall, and many monasteries. Bahir Dar receives an average annual rainfall of 1437 mm with a monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature of 29.70 C and 23.30C respectively. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: Applying the national urban growth rate estimated by the World Bank, the population of Bahir Dar is projected to reach over a million people by 2037 (Figure 1). Bahir Dar had a total area of 53.5 sq km in 2016. The city’s administrative boundary is about 213.4 sq km which implies that the city has a large expanse of land for expansion. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in BAHIR DAR Physical growth of BAHIR DAR 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and own computation on the basis Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data of WB estimate 135 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia III. Summary of Shocks and Stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Flood Nearly 80% of Bahir Dar is prone to flooding, particularly its western part. The reasons include intensive rainfall, limited storm water drainage lines, inappropriate disposal of liquid and solid waste in waterways, deforestation of the upper catchment of Gudo Bahir, soil erosion, and a shallow ground water table in and around the city (NUPI, 2006). As a result, flooding occurs in the city every rainy season though the intensity seems to be higher every 5-10 years. The western part of the city, which is the main part of Bahir Dar, has a flat topography and is blocked to the north by Lake Tana. This area suffers from floods that develop from the inner part of the city and upper side of Gudo Bahir (NUPI, 2006). Fire Fire occurs in the city and damages property. The city doesn’t have an adequate fire-fighting response capacity as a result of insufficient technical and financial support. For example, the fire brigade doesn’t have appropriate equipment to respond to fires. The city also has room for improvement in making roads adequate and accessible by emergency responders. Major Stresses Stresses Remark Lake Water The Lake ecosystem is deteriorating as a result of ill treatment and pollution by different Pollution economic activities. Major institutions in the city discharge waste water into Lake Tana and the Abay (Blue Nile) River through pipes and open ditches. Water scarcity Bahir Dar city receives its water supply mainly from two sources: springs and ground water. Spring water is by far the dominant source (79.3%) while ground water covered only 20.7% in 2009. About 50% of the spring water capacity is currently pumped to the city water supply network. Water distribution and the quality of water are key challenges. Unemployment Though the level of unemployment in Bahir Dar in 2014 (14.3%) was lower than the national average (17.4%), it still is a major problem in the city. According to the MSE agency, there were 21,706 registered job seekers in the city in 2014/15. Most of the unemployed in the city are among the youth population. The level of poverty in the city has declined from nearly 30% in 2004/05 to 14.5% in 2010/11. Housing shortage The housing challenge in the city includes shortages, and informal housing. In terms of shortage, there is a 27,000 housing backlog and there were 15,000 applicants for plots. It is also believed that the number of informal houses amount to about 5,000 or around 12% of the total houses. Slums are particularly found in the kebele rental houses across different kebeles. One of the responses to housing shortage in Bahir Dar city was the integrated housing development program (IHDP) which is a national program aimed at building low- cost housing for low-income people. Traffic accident Bahir Dar City has a total road length of 836.9 km. Of this, 141.08 km or 16.9% are paved road. This proportion of paved road is much lower than the proportion of paved roads in other major cities (46. 9%). The bulk of the roads are gravel and earth roads. These may not be all-weather roads and hence limit mobility within the city. Three-wheeled vehicles, taxis, buses, bicycles, horse-drawn carts and private automobiles are used for intra-city mobility. There are two city buses in the city running along two routes. The city also uses water transport in and around Lake Tana. The level of traffic congestion and poor roads exacerbates traffic accidents. Note: The city also listed energy shortages as an additional stress. 136 Annex 3 IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Drainage master plan: One of the top priority issues in the city is to develop a new drainage master plan including identification and prioritization of investments. This should include the establishment of a technical team that will work with a drainage consultant and follow up on the implementation. The drainage master plan will help overcome the frequent flooding in the city. • Environmental compliance: Environmental compliance is a key issue in the city in order to reduce the problem of lake pollution. As many institutions continue their discharge to the lake with little or no regard to environmental regulation, it is important to ensure environmental compliance of these institutions. The bureau of health, the bureau of environmental protection and land administration and the city administration should work together on the required regulations and enforcing the same. In addition, the Regional Environment Authority and the City Beautification and greenery office need to be strengthened to conduct audits of environmental and social safeguards and enforce compliance. • Address urban stresses: Sectoral challenges such as housing shortage, traffic accidents, and water scarcity require urgent solutions. Policies and strategies along these lines should thus be developed. 137 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 4. DIRE DAWA I. Overview: Dire Dawa, established in 1902, owes its emergence to the AA-Djibouti line. The City has a state status and is accountable to the Federal Government and the Ministry of Federal Affairs. Dire Dawa has a two tier systems: the city and kebele administration. There are nine urban kebeles in the city of Dire Dawa. Dire Dawa city, since its establishment, is an important commercial and transport corridor linking the Ethiopian hinterland with the coast. The city is the second largest after Addis Ababa, though other regional capitals are expected to surpass Dire Dawa’s population. Dire Dawa is located in the semi-arid regions of Ethiopia which deal with drought. In past decades, the cities in the semi-arid region saw a decline in the annual rainfall and a rise in rainfall variability. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: Applying the national urban growth rate estimates, the population of Dire Dawa projected to reach over 800,000 by 2037. The city will thus be heading to million population shortly after 2037. Satellite image for different years shows that the city had a built-up area of 6.2 sq km in 1973. By the year 2016, the city grew to 29.3 sq km representing a near five-fold increase in size, expanding beyond the administrative boundary delineated by the CSA in 2007. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Dire Dawa Physical growth of Dire Dawa 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and own computation on the basis Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data of WB estimate 138 Annex 3 III. Summary of Shocks and Stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Flood Located in the foothills of the Harerege highland, Dire Dawa suffers from severe flooding caused by heavy rains in upstream areas, which is aggravated by clogged or no drains, soil erosion and deforestation. The highest loss of people’s lives occurred during August 2006 when over 200 people were killed, 244 people were unaccounted for, 10,000 people became homeless and 1,827 households in 17 rural kebeles. Two types of flood events affect Dire Dawa: (1) mountain runoff during torrential rains in upper catchments of Kersa and Haromaya; and (2) flash flooding that occurs due to localized heavy rainfall. Areas vulnerable to flooding include all places where the river crosses and peripheral areas of the city or the rural kebeles around the city. Informal settlements affected by the flooding are particularly vulnerable. The city’s Disaster Emergency Unit issues traditional methods such as sandbags and sand-bund to protect riverside dwellers from flood damage. Fire The city is vulnerable to fire incidents, particularly informal markets, industrial areas, and poor quality housing. The city has a fire brigade under the police department, but it has low capacity to respond to the incidents, due in part to insufficient equipment and supplies. Earthquake The city is at risk of earthquakes but is not prepared for a seismic event. This was assessed by the Innovation Lab team of GFDRR by looking at available global data. The impact of a seismic event would be exacerbated by current challenges in the construction sector as reported by the participants of the CityStrength consultations. Challenges include a lack of testing capacity for building materials at the regional and local level, and a lack of sufficient qualified construction workers. Major Stresses Stresses Remark Water scarcity Dire Dawa suffers from an inadequate provision of safe and clean water for both drinking and sanitation services. The water supply system can satisfy only 65-70% of the demand (Dire Dawa Water Supply and Sewerage Authority, 2014). Frequent interruptions in water supply are due to overall limited water supply, infrastructure break down and electric power outages. In response to the problem, the Dire Dawa administration is implementing an urban water supply and sanitation project involving the construction of 15 wells to tap water from two prospective well fields. Bilateral partners are also assisting the Government in increasing water supply. Housing shortage Poor quality housing, over crowdedness and informal settlements are challenges that the city faces. Dire Dawa attracts many immigrants due to its location along the Addis Ababa-Djibouti transport corridor. According to data featured in the SECR, Dire Dawa has the largest coverage of informal settlements (1,770.7ha) with the vast majority of them (80%) located in hillsides and some of them in wetlands.1 These informal houses do not have access to basic services such as water, power, roads etc. Unemployment According to CSA in 2014, the level of unemployment in the city was 22.8% which is higher than the unemployment rates of major towns in the country (20.7%) for the same period. The city is characterized by a large number of informal jobs with the level of informality being 25% in 2014. This is nearly twice the level of informality among major towns in the country (13%). Women have high levels of informality with 35% of them being engaged in informal job. Dire Dawa has a comparatively high poverty rate. The levels of unemployment and poverty may be associated with disruptions of the railway transport service connecting Addis Ababa with Djibouti, the privatization of the Dire Dawa Textile Industry, and a reduction in contraband trade that also contributed to the local economic base of the city. 139 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Traffic accident Traffic accidents were identified as a major stress in the city. Motorized transportation within the city includes a combination of public buses, privately owned mini-buses and Bajaj. The availability of these options does not meet the demand and they are unaffordable to many. The main mode of transportation in the city is walking, although the city is not pedestrian-friendly. Energy shortage Electricity outages are reported as a common phenomenon. The majority of residents (96%) use electricity for lighting. The majority of the people that commonly experience electric outages (52%) reported facing interruptions three or more than three times a week. Drought and Drought and locusts affect the rural areas of the city. Drought occurs every 6-8 years due to the El locust Niño-Southern Oscillation along with sea surface warming, leading to temperature anomalies in the Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans, (DDAEPA, 2011). Drought contributes to food insecurity and crop loss. Note: The city also listed excessive transport congestion as a stress. IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Establish and strengthen early warning and emergency response systems for urban settlements: Early warning systems are needed to provide flood warning, earthquake, landslide, or volcano alerts. Currently, there are no disaster contingency plans or financing in place to prepare communities for disasters. It is recommended that to establish a Disaster Risk Management structure in Dire Dawa. The DRM unit in the city will be in charge of developing a DRM strategy, ensuring early warning on flooding, drought, and high winds, and alerts for earthquakes and landslides are provided; ensuring community preparedness to disasters; developing contingency planning and budgeting; and exploring risk financing and insurance options. • Strengthen watershed management: Dire Dawa is one of the cities heavily affected by flooding. The piecemeal approach relying on structural measures (primarily retention walls or drainage channels) and/or relocating at-risk populations does not provide effective and long-term flood mitigation solutions. It is recommended to urban watershed management including upstream runoff; and improving green and recreational areas that can enhance water absorption and recharge groundwater aquifers. Ensure the development and implementation of a technically-sound drainage master plan. • Ensure water security: Conduct a water resources study and develop a water security plan. This is urgently needed in order to satisfy the growing water demand from households and industry. • Regularization of informal settlement: Informal settlements have a low quality of life and introduce urban sprawl. It is therefore important to regularize these settlements and ensure a safe and improved quality of life. • Improve traffic management: Review and upgrade the road network and undertake traffic management functions. • Use alternative renewable energy: Explore and develop alternative renewable energy sources. 140 Annex 3 5. GAMBELLA I. Overview: Gambella city is the regional capital of the Gambella region. It has economic links with the surrounding areas of Metu, Jimma and South Sudan, which makes it a trading center. Gambella city is located 776 kilometers from Addis Ababa (Gambella Regional State, 2015), and it’s one of the fastest growing emerging cities in the country. The region is known for its dense and abundant forest. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: According to projections made by the CSA (2013), the population of the city in 2017 is projected to be close to 75,000. On the basis of the growth rate estimated by the World Bank based on CSA data, the population of the city will be over 200,000 by 2037. Gambella city has expanded physically from an area of 0.9 sq km in 1973 to 12.8 sq km in 2016. This shows that the city has expanded nearly 13-fold over a period of four decades. The city has sprawled in the eastern and northern direction out of the administrative boundary. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Gambella Physical growth of Gambella Source: CSA various publication and own computation on the basis Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data of WB estimate 141 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia III. Summary of Shocks and Stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Flood Flooding occurs in the summer due to the overflow of the Baro river, compounded by an inadequate drainage system, affecting people and livestock and livelihoods. Poor disaster risk management, climate change and the city’s location in the Baro-Akobo plain also make Gambella prone to annual flooding. Gambella has no early warning system or risk maps showing areas at risk of different natural hazards and climate change. The city also lacks a contingency plan for natural hazards. Fire Fire incidents in the city can be significant because most houses are mud-walled with thatched roof hats, and, as in most regional capitals, the firefighting capacity is inadequate. Drought Studies indicate that climate change in Gambella city results in a changing rainfall pattern (unreliable and erratic), higher risk of floods and drought, natural forest and range land degradation and malarial disease outbreak. Malaria and Gambella is located in a malarial prone area. Additionally, a study carried out by the other disease Ministry of Health and EHNRI for certain urban sites in 2011 indicated that in 2009, Gambella outbreak; was among the cities with high incidence of HIV/Aids. Conflict Gambella is one the most conflict-ridden regions in Ethiopia (Medhane, 2010; Mossa, 2014). Strengthen good governance and rule of law as a priority of the city. Major stresses Stresses Remark Water scarcity The sources of water for Gambella city are surface and groundwater, yet, the water supply system of the city appears inadequate and unreliable (Dulla, 2007; Fethanegest ,2007). The Baro River serves as a source for the city and has a catchment area of 23,461 km2. According to CSA (2007), about 62.7% of the housing units obtain potable water outside their compound whereas 12.4% of the housing units obtain water from a river/lake/pond. There is a frequent water supply interruption as well as significant water quality challenges. Housing According to the 2007 population census, migrants represent 59% of the city’s population. Shortage, Between 1994 and 2007, Gambella also had the highest population growth (4.1%) out of all Informal the regional capitals. The number of migrants is higher compared to other major cities, with settlement and migrants representing 49% of the population. Major issues concerning urban development and accommodating migrants include: land affordability, supply of new housing, and migration availability of housing finance. The ratio of people needing access to housing is estimated to be 65.9 per 1,000 (SECR, 2015). The problem of land supply and housing has led to the mushrooming of informal settlements in the city. Unemployment According to the CSA (2014) unemployment survey, the total unemployment rate of Gambella city was 7.7%. This level of unemployment is lower than the national urban level of unemployment of 17.4% in 2014. However, the rate of youth unemployment in Gambella is above the average when compared to other urban areas. 142 Annex 3 Sanitation Access to sanitation in urban areas is inadequate. The main sanitation facilities of the city challenges include traditional pit latrines and flush toilets. According to CSA (2007), about 46.5% of the housing units do not have toilet facilities. Capacity The city has limited technical capacity to prepare detailed plans and put in place and financial participatory planning processes. Financial capacity is also weak. constraints Note: The city also listed waterborne diseases and malaria prevalence, hot weather, traffic congestion, HIV/AIDS and pollution as stresses. IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Building the capacity of the city administration: It is important to put in place a capacity building program to ensure the smooth functioning of the city, including human resources, by training and creating awareness on improving the working culture. • Develop a modern city master plan including a contingency plan: Master plans are critical for orderly and rational growth of cities. The city needs to have a modern master plan that also includes contingency plans to respond to disasters. • Expand and manage the city level road network and drainage system which considers the water volume of the city: The road system has to be equipped with a proper drainage system to prevent floods. • Coordinate with regional government to plan and implement an upper catchment treatment activity: One of the reasons for the occurrence of floods in the city is poor upper catchment treatment. It is essential to rehabilitate the upper catchment area to reduce runoff emanating from the highlands. • Develop a robust early warning system for potential disasters: The city does not have any preparedness for disasters including fire, floods, and droughts. The creation of an early warning system thus becomes one of the priority actions needed in the city. In this regard, it is essential to strengthen the fire brigade and fire hydrant system and the DRM structure at the city level. • Facilitate the development of agro-industries to create employment opportunities: As the region is endowed with large-scale agricultural investment, it is appropriate to establish agro industries that can forge linkages with the commercial agriculture in the region. • Mobilize the community to promote sanitation activities in the city: Community mobilization could be an effective way of overcome this problem. • Strengthen good governance and the rule of law to reduce conflict: Conflict has remained one of the barriers for development in the region in general and in the city in particular. The root causes of the conflict seem to be lack of good governance and lack of rule of law. These need to be given adequate attention in order to reduce conflict and promote peace. 143 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 6. HARAR I. Overview: Harar is the capital of Harari People National Regional State. The city is 525 km away from Addis Ababa. Harar City, designated as “UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Living Museum”, is a historic city (World Bank, 2015). Harar is the only major urban center of the Harari region. Harari is divided into 17 rural kebeles and two town woredas, namely Harar and Hamaresa, which houses 62% of the regional population. Temperature variability and uneven frequency of rainfall affect agricultural production and productivity. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: The CSA (2013) projected the population of the city to be 137,000 in 2017. Applying the national urban growth rate estimated by the World Bank based on CSA data, the population of Harar is projected to reach close to 400,000 by 2037 (Figure 1). Traditionally, the city has witnessed a large number of immigrants, making up more than half of the population (MUDHCO AND ESCU, 2015). According to satellite imagery, the city has grown in an elongated manner from 3.3 sq. km in 1973 to 15.4 sq. km in 2016, which is nearly a five-fold increase (Figure 2). Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Harar Physical growth of Harar 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and own computation on the basis Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data of WB estimate 144 Annex 3 III. Summary of shocks and stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Water scarcity The sustainability of the town’s water supply has been a problem for decades and was and drought aggravated with the drying up of Lake Alemaya. The Harar Water Supply and Sanitation Project, designed to provide a long-term solution to the crisis, draws water from an artesian well near Dire Dawa more than 75 km away. This requires reliable energy which is a challenge across Ethiopia. The project provided water to Harar and four additional nearby towns. As a result of this initiative, access to safe water in the city has increased from 73% (2011) to 89% (2016). The frequent drought that has been affecting the area every three years affects 27% of the regional population (including people from Harar city) through chronic and acute food shortages. Fire The city has experienced multiple fires, primarily in market areas, affecting livelihoods of people and animals and causing significant monetary losses. The biggest market has been burned at least twice. Fire is aggravated by a lack of adequate fire exits or access roads in informal markets. The market is currently being rebuilt taking into consideration an appropriate fire-resistant structure and design. Fires are primarily due to unsafe electrical wiring. Harar, similar to other regional capital, has a firefighting brigade under their police department but it has inadequate capacity and equipment. Flooding The old town of Harar (Jegol) was prone to severe flooding due to its sloped terrain and narrow internal streets that impeded surface drainage. Flooding in 2015 affected 10-25% of the total area of the city. Earthquake Harar is at a risk of earthquake. The city considers it a priority to develop seismic risk maps, incorporate seismic risk in building regulations and construction practices, and assess seismic vulnerability of existing structures in the historic city center. Major stresses Stresses Remark Lack of The existing manpower and resources in the city are not adequate to handle/manage the sewerage and generated solid and liquid wastes in the city. With regard to sanitation, the 2011 welfare proper SWM monitoring survey of Ethiopia shows that 1.29% of households use flash toilets, 87.04% use system pit latrine, 10.79% use forest/field and the remaining use other toilet facilities. It has been estimated that about 57% of the daily generated solid waste is collected and dumped. The remaining significant amount of solid waste is disposed of along roads, riversides, and near residential areas. Harar has recently secured funding to construct sanitary landfills. The lack of proper solid and liquid waste management in the city seriously pollutes the available small intermittent rivers such as Bishan Buna, Segcha, Amumer, and Deje. Housing According to MUDHCO AND ESCU (2015), the housing demand for the years 2000-2006 was shortage about 2,250 houses. The ratio of people needing access to housing per 1,000 people in the and informal city was about 23.3 in 2014 (MUDHCO AND ESCU 2015), which is low compared to cities such settlements as Addis Ababa (361), Dire Dawa (176.6), and Harar (104.7). The city also struggles with poor quality of housing. 145 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia Unemployment According to 2014 data, the overall unemployment rate for Harar city was 12.2%. Poverty and street and unemployment rates in Harar are less than the national average and the city usually children performs well in poverty reduction compared to other cities. Nonetheless, the city still places unemployment and poverty among their key priorities. MSEs are a source of employment for many across all cities, however, in Harar, the number of operators per 1,000 people is on the lower end when compared to other cities. The informal sector accounted for 34.3% and 33.1% of the employment in 2010 and 2014 respectively, signifying that the informal sector is a major contributor of livelihood in the city (CSA, 2010, 2014). Traffic accidents Overall, there is weak traffic management and traffic safety. Road accidents resulted in the deaths of 24 people and 99 injuries in 2014/15. Though walking is a major mode of transport used by city dwellers, the majority of roads are not pedestrian-friendly. Public transport service provision is inadequate. *The city also listed price inflation as a stress. IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Identify alternative sources of water supply: Water scarcity is a major problem for the city. It is important to identify alternatives to water supply sources and develop a water scarcity management plan. • Integrated flood risk management: The city needs to prepare a more robust citywide drainage system, including a flood warning system. In addition, the city needs to establish buffer zones to prevent people from settling in at-risk areas and increase ground flood water absorption in green spaces. Improvements in solid waste collection and disposal systems are needed, as well as on raising awareness on appropriate practices to prevent clogging of the drainage system. • Improve fire response system: Fire occurrences in the city need to be properly addressed and their causes determined. It is also necessary to invest in improving the fire emergency response system, ensuring access of responders to at-risk areas, developing and implementing a new fire code (especially adequate electrical wiring) and instituting an emergency system. Moreover, awareness raising is necessary on safe cooking since unsafe cooking practices could be one of the reasons for the fires. • Develop seismic capability to reduce the risk of earthquakes: This will involve preparing seismic risk maps, incorporating seismic risk in building regulations and construction practices, and assessing seismic vulnerability of existing structures in the historic city center. • Focus on Local economic development: Problems of unemployment and street children, which have been identified as one of the major stresses of the city, can be addressed by promoting local economic development. • Improve traffic management and safety: Traffic accidents can be reduced by improving traffic management, traffic safety and strategic siting of public transport terminals. 146 Annex 3 7. HAWASSA I. Overview: Hawassa, which has been administratively given a zonal status, is the leading urban administration in the Southern, Nations, Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR) and serves as the regional and zonal capital. The city has 8 sub-cities with one of them — Tula sub-city – being a rural sub-city. The sub-cities are divided into 21 urban and 11 rural kebeles. The city is located at the shore of Lake Hawassa which plays a significant environmental, social, and cultural role in the lives of the people residing in the city. The city has a warm climate and it receives rainfall twice a year during the main rainy season and the Belg rainy season. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: Hawassa is one of the fastest growing cities in the country. The population of the city has more than tripled during the last two decades. In 2007, the proportion of migrants in the city was 60%. Applying the national urban growth rate estimated by the World Bank based on CSA data, the population of Hawassa is projected to reach over 900,000 by 2037, thus housing nearly a million people. The city has also experienced rapid physical growth. The satellite images for different years shows that the city has expanded more than four-fold between 1973 and 2016. It has grown from 9.6 km2 in 1973 to 37.4 km2 in 2016 (Figure 2). The city also surpassed the physical boundary delineated by the CSA in 2007 (23.2 km2). Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Hawassa Physical growth of Hawassa 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and author’s own computation on Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data the basis of WB estimate 147 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia III. Summary of shocks and stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Floods Hawassa’s vulnerability to floods is a result of its location in a low-lying area with inadequate drainage system that is further affected by poor waste management practices that clog up the drains and increase run off. There is also inadequate monitoring of the watershed in the surrounding areas which is also one of the causes of flooding. In addition, flood management is challenged by lack of technical and financial resources to implement the necessary investments. Earthquakes The city is located in Ethiopian Rift Valley and is exposed to earthquakes. A recent earthquake (3.7) in January 2015 caused panic in residents. According to the SECR, the city reported to follow all seven steps required to enforce building codes. Nonetheless, the city still expressed the need to strengthen the building codes implementation, and assessing current buildings for seismic safety. Fire The fire incidents have affected commercial and informal market areas, similar to other regional capitals. The city has inadequate firefighting capacity and a shortage of the necessary supplies and equipment (SECR, 2015). Major stresses Stresses Remark Lake pollution The city’s existence depends significantly on the nearby Lake Hawassa which is facing many challenges: chemical pollution; degradation of natural resources induced by the land use/land cover changes; loss of wetlands; organic growth in the lake; overfishing; inefficient irrigation water management; discharge of waste into the lake; and climate change induced. Both individuals and industries contribute to the pollution of the lake. The discharge from the industries is transported to the lake through surface runoff/stream flows which also contaminates storm water and groundwater. Water scarcity/ Hawassa city sources its water supply mainly from ground water (55%) and surface water (45%). In general, water supply in the city does not meet the high demand. There are also places in the city Drought where water disruption is high or water access is a problem. Additionally, studies revealed that the Hawassa watershed will experience rising temperature and precipitation (Jihur 2015). Further, it was noted that, due to an increase in evaporation, drought conditions will prevail in the watershed (Juhur, 2015). It is thus important to put in place mechanisms that will mitigate the effects of drought in the future, which is projected to become increasingly frequent beginning in 2020. Housing The city is experiencing rapid development and is expected to attract more development activities. shortage Rapid population growth, difficulty to access land in the city and insufficiency of housing stock have resulted in the proliferation of informal settlements. There is a plan to regularize informal settlemens in the expansion areas and this will have huge cost implications. In the inner city, the administration focuses on renewal and redevelopment of housing in order to make them livable and conducive for investment. Though the city provides land through bidding and also allocates land to housing cooperatives, the housing supply is still significantly lower than demand. The ongoing construction of the industrial park is expected to exacerbate the demand for housing as it will be another pull factor for migrants. 148 Annex 3 Unemployment Currently, there are over 22,000 employment seekers and the majority of them have some level of education. According to the CSA (2014) unemployment survey, the total unemployment rate of Hawassa city was 13.7%. This level of unemployment is relatively lower than the national unemployment rate which was 17.4% in 2014. The bulk of employment in the city is in the formal sector. The proportion of informal jobs in the city stood at 14.5% in 2014. Construction and services are by far the two most important MSE sectors. However, the lake can be better leveraged for job creation. The industrial zone is also expected to generate a large number of jobs. Traffic accidents The numerous three wheeler taxis are major contributors to traffic congestion and they cause direct accidents to vehicles, motor cycles and pedestrians. The city faces challenges during peak hours as the transport options do not meet the demand. The majority of modes of transport operate on paved road while neglecting people who live in unpaved areas such as informal settlements. In 2014, Hawassa had a total of 703 km of road with paved roads representing 156 km (22.2%). This proportion is lower than the average for major 27 cities in the country (46.9%). A low proportion of paved road decreases mobility. There is also lack of coordination between the transport sector and other related sectors. *The city also listed urban growth from migration and street children as stresses. IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Plan and implement an integrated flood management system: A combination of improper drainage system, increased run off and a poor waste management system cause flooding in Hawassa city. It is therefore important to undertake and mainstream integrated flood risk management planning. In this regard, there is a need to improve the drainage and liquid and solid waste management systems so that wastes do not clog drainage lines and streets. Improving the watershed in the surrounding areas will also help reduce runoff into the city which is also one of the causes of flooding. The current initiatives to reduce flooding and pollution – digging ditches, terracing, developing wetlands - should also be continued. Since flood management requires investment, there is a need to identify resources (technical and financial) to implement integrated flood management initiatives. • Protect buildings from seismic hazards: Hawassa is found in the Rift Valley zone – one of the seismic areas in the country. The recent tremors that took place in the city are an indication that earthquake is an important shock to consider. Buildings therefore need to be protected to minimize the effect of the shock. This includes reviewing existing buildings to determine capacity to withstand hazards and strengthening the capacity of the building agency to inspect buildings against hazards, issue regulations and enforce them. • Address current SWM capacity: Though Hawassa has a better SWM performance than other cities, it still relies on a dump site for wastes which is surrounded by residential areas and has a significant negative effect on nearby residents. A new landfill is urgently needed. It is therefore important to conduct a technical study to build a new sanitary landfill. 149 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 8. JIGJIGA I. Background: The city is situated about 630km east from Addis Ababa City and 60 km away from the border of Somaliland. The city has two layers of administration: the Jigjiga City Administration and 11 kebeles of the city. The city is found in a sub-tropical agro-ecological zone with a temperature ranging between 12.27°C and 27°C and rainfall ranging between 400mm and 800mm with an annual mean rainfall of 712mm (Yohanis and Genemo, 2015). II. Demography and Demographic trends: The city experienced a high population growth rate of 6.1% between 1994 and 2007. However, the proportion of migrants in the city in 2007 (25.5%) was less than the average for major towns (48.7%). CSA estimates the population of the city to be close to 170,000 in 2017 (CSA 2013). On the basis of World Bank estimates of urban growth (per CSA data), the population of Jigjiga will reach over 365,000 in 2032 and over 465,000 in 2037 (Figure 1). Jigjiga city has experienced a rapid increase in its physical size. The satellite imagery (Figure 2) shows that the city’s area of 1.7 m2 in 1986 expanded to 28 sq m2 in 2016, a nearly 17-fold increase the three decades since 1986. In fact, the city has sprawled beyond its administrative boundary in the northwestern, northern and eastern directions. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Jigjiga Physical growth of Jigjiga Source: CSA various publication and author’s own computation on Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data the basis of Govt. and WB estimates 150 Annex 3 III. Summary of shocks and stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Floods Jigjiga city has experienced serious floods in different years. A recent flood that occurred in the city at the end of March 2016 resulted in the deaths of 23 people and injury of 84 people when a river that crosses the city burst its banks. As a result of climate change, the rainfall pattern is changing and the temperature is generally rising. This is increasing the city’s exposure to flooding hazards. Fire Fire was mentioned as one of the top three shocks faced by the city, though the city is unable to respond to fire outbreaks due to inadequate firefighting capacity and equipment. Landslide Heavy rainfall causes landslides in the city. The city stakeholders listed landslides as one of the top three shocks in the city and its vulnerability is likely to increase as a result of climate change, which will bring changes in rainfall patterns. Major stresses Stresses Remark Water scarcity Jigjiga city has a critical water-supply problem. At the same tie, the rainfall pattern is changing from time to time and temperature is generally increasing as a result of climate change. Such variability in the climate can further increase water scarcity. Housing shortage Jigjiga, among other regional capitals, experienced relatively higher growth rates of more than 5% between 1994 and 2007. There is an imbalance between demand and supply of housing with a backlog reaching 18,000 and causing a serious concern over informal settlements. About 301.8 ha of land or 14.4% of the total area was occupied by informal settlers, a high figure compared to other emerging cities where the proportion remains below 3% (SECR, 2015). Poor solid and Access to sanitation facilities in the city is a challenge in Jigjiga city. According to CSA (2007), liquid waste out of 23,262 housing units 5,493 (23.6%) do not have access to a toilet and 8,788 (37%) management of housing units use shared pit latrines. Another challenge is the absence of a modern and functioning sewerage system in the city. Solid waste management in the city is also inadequate. In 2007, the municipality and the private sector collected 57.6% of the solid waste generated (CSA, 2007). The remaining waste was indiscriminately disposed of in drainage lines, rivers, open spaces behind housing units, road side and/or is informally burned, causing environmental and public health concerns. Unemployment The level of unemployment in 2012 was 18.8%, which was higher than the national urban unemployment rate of 17.3%. However, this is an improvement from a level of 39.4% in 2010 (CSA, 2012). The share of informal employment in the city is very high and has ranged between 29% and 43% (2009-2014). Lack of capacity The city has a structure plan but it hasn’t been properly implemented and the activities to implement and haven’t been properly monitored. Future plans need to identify risk areas in the city monitor plans and areas for safe expansion. This is a large undertaking which is restrained by the weak capacity in the city to implement and monitor plans. *The city also listed drainage infrastructure, informal settlements in risk areas, energy shortage, migration, and transport accidents as stresses. 151 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia IV. Priority Actions identified during the CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Improved and integrated urban planning and development: Land use planning is a key instrument to overcome numerous challenges in the city. It is important to undertake the following actions through land use planning: • Identify risk areas in the city (all water courses). This involves identifying the settlements that are exposed to flooding. • Identify a buffer zone around the water courses and other risk areas, and monitor and control any future legal or illegal settlements in that area. This includes reforestation and establishing parks and other recreation areas to prevent encroachment and to increase absorption capacity. • Identify areas for safe expansion where provision of basic infrastructure and services can be safely provided. • Update the existing plans based on current realities in the city, focusing on the mitigation of risks. • Addres flooding: It is important to widen the riverbanks and clean the canals before proceeding with the building of a retaining wall similar to the one in Dire Dawa. It is also critical to develop integrated urban watershed management measures to improving flood management including upstream soil and water conservation, floodplain management, flood water and response system. • Address water scarcity: The problem of water scarcity can be addressed through: • Monitoring, protecting, and recharging the aquifer. • Prioritize groundwater for consumption, and invest in dams to protect the bore holes for recharging the acquirer. • Address liquid and solid waste management: It is imperative to build a new sanitary landfill to replace the current open dump site. 152 Annex 3 9. MEKELLE I. Overview: Mekelle city is the capital of the Tigray regional state and serves as the primary economic hub in the region. It has a city administration, a municipality, seven sub-cities, 33 kebeles and 105 Ketenas with decentralized service delivery functions Mekelle is a fast- growing urban center and a major strategic investment area of the region. The city is found at a distance of 784 km north of Addis Ababa. The city has a mild temperate agro-climatic zone, which is characterized by a summer rain season with erratic rainfall distribution, temperature fluctuations and a dry season with high winds. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: The city experienced a very high population growth rate of 6.2% from 1994 and 2007. In 2007, more than half the city’s population were migrants. Applying the national urban growth rate estimated by the World Bank based on CSA data, the population of Mekelle is projected to reach nearly a million people by 2037 (Figure 1). Regarding the physical size, the city had a total land area of 2.5 km2 in 1973. This grew to 21.4 km2 in the year 2000 (Figure 2). By 2016, the built-up area of the city was 46.4km2. Though some parts of the city have sprawled outside of the administrative boundaries, most of the built-up area remains within its administrative boundaries. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Mekelle Physical growth of Mekelle 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1994 2007 2014 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Source: CSA various publication and author’s own computation on Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data the basis of WB estimate 153 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia III. Summary of shocks and stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Floods Mekelle is located in part of the Tekeze river basin. Ellala and Aynalem streams flow from East to West aligning the Tekeze watershed. Flooding occurs most often during the rainy season. There is a lack of a well-planned drainage system and as a result, there is storm water runoff. The structural plans of the city have not taken into account past flooding events and therefore, the city continues to be exposed to flooding. In addition, participants of the city consultation noted that solid waste blocks drainage channels causing flooding. Uncontrolled open dumping in storm drains, ditches, rivers, open fields, and agricultural farms, create environmental and health hazards, and exacerbate flooding. Earthquake The city is located on a seismic belt. Seismic considerations are not considered building or other infrastructure design. Fire Fire is another risk the city faces but the level of preparedness of Mekelle city for fire and other types of man-made and natural disasters is generally limited with inadequate equipment and supplies. For instance, Mekelle city does not have a specialized agency for disaster preparedness. Major stresses Stresses Remark Water scarcity Water supply in the city has not been proportionally developed to support the ever- increasing demand which will continue to grow with the industrial park that is being built. The main source of Mekelle city’s water supply is ground water. Wells service the city, but are very expensive to drill as the water table is approximately 350m below the surface. The distribution system depends primarily on gravity but the network also relies on pumps. Frequent shortages occur as water is distributed on a scheduled basis to ensure a more equitable supply. Many households, schools and health institutions often lack water and basic sanitation facilities, which had drastic implications for the public health (Castro, Maoulidi& MCI, 2009). There is a need to regulate the kind industries that can be allowed in the city. Soft drinks industries, for example, can drain already constrained water supply in the city. Housing shortage As of 2015, the ratio of people requiring access to housing was 98.1 per 1,000 people. About 734.42 ha of land or 3.5% of the total area is occupied by informal settlements. New settlements have emerged over the plots allocated for housing by the city administration. The housing development, however, has not been accompanied by the necessary provision of infrastructure services. 154 Annex 3 Environmental The city does not have a liquid waste sewerage network system, and sanitation facilities pollution (water, in Mekelle consist mainly of pit latrines and pour-flush latrines with septic tanks. There is noise, and air) one dry bed constructed which is recently functioning. Due to the lack of a treatment plant or liquid waste disposal site in the city, liquid and semi-solid wastes are disposed of in uncontrolled open dumping areas such as rivers, open fields and agricultural farms, creating environmental and health hazards. There is a need to enforce environmental regulations on factories that utilize natural resources. Traffic accidents/ The city has a total road length of 384.50 km with 167.5 km or 43.6% being paved road. congestion Mekelle does not have well established public transport systems. Private car, taxis and mini buses are the most used motorized modes of transportation. Walking and cycling are also city transportation alternatives in the city. There is poor management of traffic in the city mainly due to a lack and shortage of manpower, signs and signals. This leads to traffic congestion and makes the city vulnerable to traffic accidents. IV. Priority Actions identified during CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Follow an integrated urban water management approach to deal with current flooding and water scarcity issues, and prioritize the protection of current sources by taking into account environmental issues and waste management. • Revise the master plan for the city with a long-term vision, taking into account the increased population and clearly identify expansion areas where basic services can be provided. Furthermore, develop a comprehensive drainage plan to alleviate runoff flooding. • Housing and Construction: Provide universal and safe housing for all, and ensure that infrastructure being built is earthquake-resistant. Moreover, retrofit key infrastructure to withstand shocks, especially the water system. • Strengthen Disaster Risk Management: Establish a DRM unit under the City Administration, and strengthen the capacity to respond to fire incidents. • Pollution: Manage water, noise and air pollution. • Develop a traffic management plan and enhance implementation capacity to alleviate the traffic congestion in the city. 155 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia 10. SEMERA LOGIA I. Background: Semera city is a newly established city (2011) to serve as the capital of the Afar National Regional State. It also serves as the main transit artery of Ethiopia for import and export through the Djibouti port. Semera is one of the smallest cities in terms of population size. Migration to the city is one of the highest compared to cities of the emerging regions. II. Demographic Trends and Physical Growth: According to projections made by the CSA (2013), the population of Semera-Logia is expected to be close to 20,000 in 2017. According to the estimates by the World Bank based on CSA data, the population of the city is expected to reach over 40,000 by 2032 and close to 55,000 by 2037 (Figure 1). A census in 2007 revealed that 71.6% of the residents were migrants (CSA, 2008) coming from neighboring regional states. Semera-Logia grew from 2.5 sq. km in 2000 to 11.1 sq. km in 2016 which is a nearly five-fold increase in size (Figure 2). Logia has a much larger areal coverage than Semera at present. The administrative boundary delineated by CSA, which is 92.3 sq. km, is much larger than the present size, therefore, Semera- Logia has a large space to accommodate its physical expansion. Figure 1 Figure 2 Population Growth in Semera/Logia Physical growth of Semera/Logia Source: CSA various publication and author’s own computation on Source: CSA, 2007, GLCF, www.landcover.org/data the basis of Govt. and WB estimates 156 Annex 3 III. Summary of Shocks and Stresses Major shocks Shocks Remark Floods In addition to the natural exposure to river flooding, urban flooding is caused by an inadequate drainage system. Fire Fire was reported by city stakeholders as a significant shock in Semera/Logia. However, the city doesn’t have the appropriate resources to respond to fire outbreaks. For example, the city only has one fire truck and a poor road network which limits the accessibility of emergency responders. High winds and Landslide together with high winds and rains, is a significant shock that affects the lives of rains, land slides residents. Response to landslides will have to include terracing. Water scarcity Semera/Logia is characterized by a hot arid climatic situation. Over the past few decades, there has been a significant change to the landscape of Afar as a result of recurrent drought and other anthropogenic factors. Climate change impacts are further going to worsen droughts and water scarcity. Earth quake The city lies in one of the most seismically sensitive areas of the country. Yet, the city is not prepared for a seismic shock. Major stresses Stresses Remark Inadequate The source of water for Semera-Logia city is ground water. In 2007, 97.4% of the population water supply and was reported to have access to safe water supply (CSA, 2007). Yet, the water supply system sanitation is also reported as fairly inadequate and unreliable due to: poor infrastructure, lack of adequate human resources, and insufficient operational funds. In terms of sanitation, a significant proportion of households live with no toilet facilities and sewerage systems. The main sanitation facilities of the city include: traditional pit latrine and pit flush toilets. According to CSA (2007), about 56.7% of the housing units do not have toilet facilities and 35.5% of the housing units have pit flush latrines. Similar to water supply, the key problems and challenges of sanitation in the city is the lack of modern infrastructure. Transport The city houses import and export routes and the presence of many heavy trucks. Accident Congestion and accidents are a common phenomenon. Many long vehicles and euro trackers that deal with import and export activities usually park on the two sides of the main road (especially in Logia) causing traffic accidents. Traffic accident in the city is estimated to be 114 per 10,000 vehicles annually. Inadequate Coverage and efficiency of solid waste management appears to be low and the proportion solid waste of uncollected waste is greater than the waste that gets collected. There is only one landfill management in the city which is not operational. According to CSA (2007), about 80.4% of the housing units dispose their wastes in an open space/behind the housing unit whereas 19.6% of households burn or bury their waste. Shortage of The city struggles with power shortages. There is no alternative source of energy in case the energy electric grid is down. People in the informal settlements are not connected to the electric grid. The major problem of electricity supply in Semera-Logia city is power interruption. 157 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia The city also listed the following stresses: Poor road infrastructure, pollution from charcoal production around the city, no recreational facilities, no drains, lack of institutional capacity due to the recent establishment of the regional capital (2011), rapid population increase – a large number of incoming migrants, poor coordination among different institutions, high illiteracy, truck drivers staying in Logia can cause social issues, housing shortages, increased temperature, informal settlements and slums. IV. Priority Actions identified during the CityStrength consultations with city stakeholders: • Improve integrated flood risk and water scarcity management: An integrated approach is needed to manage floods and water scarcity. This includes improved water supply network by managing ground water through aquifer recharge. Improved drainage and flood plain management is needed along with the development of a citywide solid waste collection and disposal plan and create awareness for sorting waste. • Strengthen fire services: As fire continues to be one of the major shocks, there is a need for more fire trucks and an improved road network. • Prevention of landslides caused by high wind and rain: Implement afforestation and terracing programs to prevent landslides. Improve the building codes that include wind resilience and implement them. • Improved seismic resilience: Seismic-resilient codes and their implementation are needed. Awareness raising on earthquakes and associated preparation and response is needed among citizens. • A DRM strategy: It is important to have a DRM unit in the city government and DRM strategy for the city based on detailed risk profile and including dedicated budget, early warning, and disaster preparedness. • Improved transport management: There is a need to develop internal roads in new/expanding city areas and plan and implement alternative roads to bypass highway traffic, which will alleviate traffic congestion. Social support should also be provided to cope with challenges of long distance truck route in the city. Furthermore, it will be important to have improved drainage systems to reduce run-off that causes flooding. 158 Annex 4 Annex 4: Quantifying Benefits from Investment in Urban Resilience In an effort to quantify some of the benefits derived from investment in urban resilience, this study assessed the reduced potential human and economic losses from fire, flood and earthquake associated with improved building regulations. The estimates are based solely on projected growth in population and building stock accounting for increasing urbanization. All estimates are in current dollars, are based on constant GDP per capita and do not discount future values or account for inflation or changing exchange rates. The assessment found that: 1. Improved compliance with fire could save 160,000 lives by 2050: Ethiopia’s current death rate due to fire is 12.11 persons per 100,000 people, which ranks it 20th in the world. By comparison, this rate is 11 in Kenya, 9.83 in Madagascar, 3 in Indonesia and 1.81 in Peru.47 The majority of fire-related injuries occur in the home and workplace. While a significant proportion of these losses are in rural areas and will likely decrease due to an “urban benefit” derived from better access to fire protection and medical care, as Ethiopia urbanizes, low-rise building density will nevertheless increase significantly and many more mid- and high-rise buildings will be built. Both of these types of urban settings (dense low-rise and mid- to high-rise buildings) will pose very significant challenges for fire departments, and the hazard risk can be best dealt with through modern building codes and regulation. Achieving effective building compliance with codes is not easy, but can pay many dividends. If improved fire protection48 at an incremental cost of 1 percent of building cost is achieved in newly contructed urban areas alone, then by 2050 urban fire mortality would instead be about 600 deaths per year (while rural deaths would remain about 16,400)— resulting in nearly 2,900 lives saved per year. Considering the 34 years between 2016 and 2050, the net reduction in lives lost as a result of improved fire protection sums to 164,000 people, with 75,000 urban lives saved and 89,000 rural lives saved. The estimated number of urban lives saved is based on data-driven estimates of the benefits of improved fire protection that would result from compliance with the fire code, improved construction and egress, installation of sprinklers and the assurance of fire-resistance materials. The estimated reduction in rural fire-related mortalities is based on assumed benefits due to education on better building practices. 2. Compliance with building seismic provisions would reduce Average Annual Losses by 30 percent by 2050, from US$128 million to US$90 million: To quantify potential benefits from improvements in seismic construction, data on (a) seismic hazard, (b) building stock at risk, and (c) vulnerability of this stock were combined and used to estimate “average annual loss” (AAL)49 for the building stock. The AAL for the current Ethiopian building stock valued at US$311 billion is estimated to be about US$50 million. While seemingly insignificant, a “100-year earthquake” could result in direct building losses equivalent to 1.6 percent of the national building stock; business interruption and other impacts would further exacerbate these losses. Such events are not to be dismissed; in 1906, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred within tens of kilometers of Addis Ababa.50 For comparison, in 1960, a magnitude 5.7 47 Source: World Life Expectancy (2016) and World Health Organization (2014) 48 Improved fire protection entails compliance with fire protection provisions of the building code and an appropriate investment in passive and active fire protection measures that typically include sprinklers, fire alarms, and appropriate insulation for stairwell and vertical openings. 49 AAL is a standard term used in the finance and insurance industries, and may be thought of as the long-term average loss per year due to a hazard such as earthquake—a damaging event might not occur for a hundred years, but at that time the commensurate loss might be on the order of one hundred times the AAL. 50 Sources are vague as to its precise location, indicative of work that needs to be done to improve the understanding of seismicity in Ethiopia. 159 Safe and Resilient Cities in Ethiopia earthquake in Agadir (Morocco)—a city which had construction very similar to that in Ethiopia—caused significant damages and nearly 12,000 deaths. While Ethiopia’s current AAL is estimated to be US$50 million, projecting urban growth to 2050, the estimated value of the national building stock would increase to nearly US$920 billion. Under current building regulation practices, particularly in urban areas, estimated AAL would increase to US$128 million. If building regulation practices improved and if it were possible to ensure compliance with seismic design codes , estimated AAL would be cut by about 30 percent, to US$90 million, a net annual reduction of about US$38 million.51 Thus, for example, an investment of $US10 million in improving building regulation would be expected to result in savings of about US$600 million52 from earthquake losses alone, or very approximately a benefit-cost ratio of 60.53 For the purpose of the current estimation, the term “improved building regulation” is defined by the assumption of regulatory compliance with the seismic provisions of the building code. 3. If flood management practices were improved, it is estimated that the AAL would be reduced to about US$93 million, a net annual reduction of about US$230 million each year: This calculation involves a combination of land use and structural flood protection measures. To quantify potential benefits from improvements in flood management, data on (a) riverine flood hazard, (b) building stock at risk, and (c) vulnerability of this stock were combined and used to estimate AAL for the building stock. The AAL due to riverine flooding for the current Ethiopian building stock valued at US$311 billion is estimated to be about US$123 million (or 0.04 percent of the building stock at risk). If current conditions continue, particularly in urban areas, it is estimated that the AAL would increase to US$323 million. If flood management practices were improved,54 estimated AAL would be reduced to about US$93 million, a net annual reduction of about US$230 million each year. For the purpose of this estimate, the term “improved practices” refers to compliance with appropriate design and land use requirements and better facilities for structural flood control.55 51 Note: this reduction would almost be equivalent to the current AAL. 52 Savings of US$38 million would be achieved in 2050—that is, the 34th year from now—next year, proportionately less savings would be achieved, ramping up to the full US$38 million in 2050. The US$600 million accounts for this ramping up of savings. 53 This assumes the US$10 million investment would achieve its result. If a US$20 million investment is required, then the benefit cost ratio is 30. 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