The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) AFRICA WEST | Nigeria | Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2014 | Seq No: 14 | ARCHIVED on 28-Jun-2021 | ISR46845 | Implementing Agencies: Federal Republic of Nigeria, Oyo State Government Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 17-Jun-2014 Effectiveness Date: 23-Feb-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 23-Sep-2019 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 04-Nov-2019 Original Closing Date: 30-Jun-2022 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2022 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project development objective is to improve the capacity of Oyo State to effectively manage flood risk in the city of Ibadan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1: Flood Risk Identification, Prevention and Preparedness:(Cost $43.00 M) Component 2: Flood Risk Reduction:(Cost $149.00 M) Component 3: Project Administration and Management:(Cost $8.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions The project has made achievement in the following: (i) All 18 priority rehabilitation sites have now been completed, including the Eleyele Dam rehabilitation; (ii) As of date, the number of direct project beneficiaries has reached 118,014 well exceeding its end-of-project (EOP) target of 36,600; (iii) The completion of the restoration works of the Eleyele Dam has provided protection to a population of 7,925 against the EOP target of 5,065; (iv) 9,000ha of land has been protected from the 25 year return period of flood event against the EOP target of 3,500ha; (v) 17 flood prone sites have made flood resilient in Ibadan; (vi) Flood Risk Management and drainage master plan, solid waste master plan have been completed. Though the project has made some progress in some areas the following challenges are being experienced: (i) The implementation of First Pool of Long-Term Investment (Lot 1 and 2) has experienced significant delays and will not delivered within current contract period; (ii) Though No Objection was issued on Second Pool of Long-Term Investment (PLTI2) (Lot 3A, 3B, 4A, and 4B) awarding of contract has delayed due to safeguards compliance requirements posing a big challenge to deliver PLTI2 within the remaining project period; (iii) The Flood Risk Management & Drainage Masterplan and Solid Waste Management Master Plan have been finalized but there is no legal framework to facilitate operationalization; and (iv) Asset Management Plan, Early Warning and Response System and Dredging strategy are still to be delivered. 6/28/2021 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) Therefore, deducing from above, the project is Moderately unsatisfactory. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and -- Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- Substantial Substantial Stakeholders -- Moderate Moderate Other -- Substantial Substantial Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Improve the capacity of Oyo State to effectively manage flood risk in the city of Ibadan IN00997101 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 118,014.00 118,014.00 36,600.00 Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 28-May-2022 The current targeted end value for direct project beneficiaries will be revised if there will be significant Comments: progress on PLTI2. IN00997102 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 52.30 49.80 50.00 6/28/2021 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) IN00997103 ►Land area protected from a 25 year return period flood event (Hectare(Ha), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 9,000.00 9,000.00 3,500.00 Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 28-May-2022 The current values for land area protected is 9,000. This is based on the completion of 17 Priority Sites. It is estimated that the total land area protected will increase significantly once the 1st and 2nd pool of long Comments: term investment are implemented. IN00997104 ►Improved institutional coordination on flood risk management in Ibadan (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value Not Satisfactory (No) Not Satisfactory (No) Not Satisfactory (No) Satisfactory (Yes) Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 30-Jun-2022 Much as the Flood risk management and drainage master plan has been development but it has not been operationalized. The other benchmark like Asset Management plan, Early warning and response system Comments: and dredging strategy are still underway. Therefore, the achievement to this indicator remains not satisfactory. IN00997105 ►Effective use of flood control assets management plan (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 No No Yes Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 30-Jun-2021 The asset management plan is still being prepared by the Project. It is hoped that the plan will be Comments: completed before project closure in 2022. It is also hoped that the plan will be put to use. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Flood Risk Identification, Prevention and Preparedness IN00997106 ►Adoption of flood control assets management plan for Ibadan (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value None None None Yes Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 28-May-2022 The asset management plan is still being prepared by the Project. It is hoped that the plan will be Comments: completed before project closure in 2022. It is also hoped that the plan will be put to use IN00997108 6/28/2021 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) ►Ibadan’s long term Flood Resilience Strategy developed and validated (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 01-Jun-2022 This will be achieved once the Masterplans(City Masterplan, drainage masterplan) are given legal backing Comments: IN00997110 ►Improved capacity for flood forecasting and warning (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value None None None Yes Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 28-May-2022 The early warning activities is nearing completion. It is anticipated that equipment for improved early Comments: warning activities will be up and running in the next four months. Component 2: Flood Risk Reduction IN00997107 ►Population protected by restoring the safety of the Eleyele dam (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 7,783.00 7,925.00 5,065.00 Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 28-May-2022  The Report was carried out in 2016(Year 3), with a population growth of (3.2% of 7211 (230+7211) =7,441(Year 4) 3.2% of 7441(238+7441) =7679(Year 5) 3.2% of 7679(245+7679) Comments: =7925(Year 6) 3.2% of 7925(254+7925)  Source: Nigeria Bureau of Statistics: Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2017 (3.2% page 12) IN00997109 ►Flood-prone sites made flood resilient in Ibadan (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 31-May-2022  17 Priority Sites, while every channel under long term investments each Lot is treated as a site while bridges, culverts are sub sites (17 Sites)  Agodi Channel= 5, Orogun Channel= 6 Kudeti and Olojuoro=6, Ogbere North=5 Ogbere Comments: South=2 Critical structures=5 Ona Channel =3 Ona River crossing structures=4 Dikes Total Sites = 36 The estimated end target is (17+36) =53 IN00997111 ►Flood risk management capital investment program adopted for targeted sites (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/28/2021 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) Value None None None Yes Date 23-May-2014 30-Oct-2020 31-Mar-2021 31-May-2022 Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P130840 IDA-55100 Effective USD 200.00 200.00 0.00 84.64 99.26 46% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P130840 IDA-55100 Effective 17-Jun-2014 07-Nov-2014 23-Feb-2015 30-Jun-2022 30-Jun-2022 Cumulative Disbursements 6/28/2021 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project (P130840) PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/28/2021 Page 6 of 6