G R Y N R I N R T I A AT I O or A ll E E TE UCt Delive D r f S T E te m s t ha y s n tS e e s ili d R a r w To tt e ss h old e Ba n e a Ar Mal Nin berta Ro © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Cover design: Wojciech Wolocznik, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Piotr Ruczyński, London, United Kingdom Interior design and typesetting: Piotr Ruczyński, London, United Kingdom G R Y N R I N R T I A AT I O or A ll E E TE UCt Delive D r f S T E te m s t ha y s n tS e e s ili d R a r w To tt e ss h old e Ba n e a Ar Mal Nin berta Ro Contents vii Acknowledgments viii Abbreviations 2 FAQs — Answering Key Questions on Tertiary Education 5 Executive Summary 5 Tertiary education produces advanced skills and innovation that are essential to growth and social cohesion 6 Benefits of investing in tertiary education are high for individuals and societies, although returns are heterogeneous 7 The tertiary education sector has experienced dramatic changes 8 A framework for strategic investments in tertiary education 13 SECTION 1 Introduction 15 Beyond COVID-19: global megatrends and the need for advanced skills  17 Tertiary education continues its exponential growth 18 But what about Africa? 19 Advanced skills and higher productivity are essential in rapidly changing demographic environments 20 To ensure the development of advanced (including green) skills and research and innovation, countries need to STEER 23 SECTION 2 Tertiary education: A vital investment for economic development and poverty reduction 26 Tertiary education systems need to diversify for relevance, efficiency, and resilience 31 SECTION 3 STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 33 Strategically diversified systems 37 Technology 43 Equity 48 Efficiency 57 Resilience 63 SECTION 4 Moving forward 66 ANNEX 1  The World Bank’s portfolio on tertiary education 72 ANNEX 2  Review of World Bank literature on tertiary education 79 ANNEX 3   Tertiary education and human capital 84 References BOXES 18 BOX 1.1  Sub-Saharan Africa strives to catch up 49 BOX 3.7  The Quality Improvement Program in 34 BOX 3.1  India’s plan to build the biggest tertiary Tunisia: An innovative funding mechanism to education system in the world improve the employability of graduates 36 BOX 3.2  Benchmarking university governance in 50 BOX 3.8  Higher education funding reforms in the Middle East and North Africa: A tool for ad- Latvia – Focus on performance dressing challenges within the tertiary education 52 BOX 3.9  The Student Loan Facility at Duoc UC, sector in the region and beyond Chile 37 BOX 3.3  Tracking graduates — A powerful 53 BOX 3.10 The PASET Regional Benchmarking evidence base for the employability discourse in Initiative — Improving the quality and relevance Bangladesh of programs in Sub-Saharan Africa 38 BOX 3.4  Evoke — Using technology to develop 56 BOX 3.11  Africa Higher Education Centers of 21st century skills at Uniminuto University, Co- Excellence Projects lombia 81 BOX A3.1  Tertiary education sector reform and 40 BOX 3.5 Strengthening NRENs to improve techno- societal change in Vietnam logical resilience for tertiary education in Africa 82 BOX A3.2  The Human Capital Project and Ter- 44 BOX 3.6  Afghanistan: Promoting gender equity tiary Education in tertiary education FIGURES 17 FIGURE 1.1  Projections of share of 25 – 34-year- 32 FIGURE 3.1  STEERing Tertiary Education olds with tertiary education, 2013, 2030, selected 33 FIGURE 3.2  An effective, diversified, and articu- countries (percent) lated tertiary education system 18 FIGURE B1.1.1  Gross tertiary enrollment rates, by 40 FIGURE B3.5.1  Connectivity in Sub-Saharan region Africa using NRENs 24 FIGURE 2.1  Routes of economic and social bene- 51 FIGURE 3.3  Skilled labor force by income, aver- fits via tertiary education age for 1992–2012 27 FIGURE 2.2  Gross Enrolment Ratio in tertiary education, 1970 – 2019 TABLES 19 TABLE B1.1.1  Educational rates of return, by 68 TABLE A1.4  Active tertiary education Reimbursa- region ble Advisory Services 25 TABLE 2.1  Benefits of tertiary education 69 TABLE A1.5  Subsector commitment as percentage 57 TABLE 3.1  Total affected tertiary education stu- of total education sector commitment for lending dents, by region and income level operations (FY2015–FY2021) 60 TABLE 3.2  Conventional governance compared 70 TABLE A1.6  List of World Bank tertiary edu- to adaptive governance for systems resilience cation projects with a commitment of US$100 million or more, approved between FY2015 and 66 TABLE A1.1  Education sector portfolio summary, FY2021 fiscal years 2015 – 2021 78 TABLE A2.1  Key messages from World Bank 67 TABLE A1.2  World Bank higher education pro- policy frameworks on tertiary education jects by region and thematic area 68 TABLE A1.3  Education sector ASAs by number of activities, fiscal years 2015 – 21 vii Acknowledgments This World Bank Policy Approach Paper was prepared by Nina Arnhold and Roberta Malee Bassett with input from Harsha Aturupane, Ekua Nuama Bentil, Koen Geven, Hana Addam El Ghali, Tara Béteille, Abdul Hai Sofizada, Bob Hawkins, Keiko Inoue, Francisco Marmolejo, Shiro Nakata, Karine Pezzani, Alina Sava, Namrata Raman Tognatta, Michael Trucano, Alex Twinomugisha and Jason Weaver. Andree Sursock provided input for the section on quality assur- ance; Maulshree Gangwar contributed and prepared the annexes of the document, and Vitus Püttmann provided editorial support. The authors would like to thank the World Bank Education Management Team, in particular Jaime Saavedra and Omar Arias as well as the COREHEG Advisory Board for their guidance throughout this work. They would further like to thank the peer reviewers Harsha Aturupane, Andreas Blom and Christian Bodewig, all from the World Bank as well as Jamil Salmi, Global Tertiary Education Expert and Michaela Martin from UNESCO IIEP. The report was edited by Diane Stamm. viii STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Abbreviations ACE Africa Centers of Excellence NMUP New Model University Project ACEI Africa Centers of Excellence: West and NEP National Education Policy Central Africa NMUP New Model University Project ACEII Africa Centers of Excellence: Eastern and NREN National Research and Education Southern Africa Network AfgREN Afghanistan Research and Educational OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation Network and Development AHELO Assessment of Higher Education PARES Higher Education Reform Support Learning Outcomes Project; Projet d’Appui à la Réforme de AI artificial intelligence l’Enseignement Supérieur ASA Advisory Services and Analytics PASET Partnership for Skills in Applied ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations Sciences, Engineering and Technology BCI Banco de Crédito e Inversiones PERN Pakistan Education and Research BdREN Bangladesh Research and Education Network Network PIAAC Programme for the International CSRs Country Specific Recommendations Assessment of Adult Competencies ECA Europe and Central Asia PISA Programme for International Student EQA External Quality Assurance Assessment ESSU Education Sector Strategy Update QA quality assurance ETEP Enhancing Teacher Effectiveness Project QIP Quality Improvement Program GTS graduate tracer studies RAS Reimbursable Advisory Services HCI Human Capital Index SABER Systems Approach for Better Education HEDP Higher Education Development Project Results HEI higher education institution SABER-TE Systems Approach for Better Education IBRD/IDA International Bank for Reconstruction Results for Tertiary Education and Development/International SAHEP Support for Autonomous Higher Development Association Education Project IFC International Finance Corporation STEER Strategically diversified systems, IOT Internet of Things Technology, Equity, Efficiency, Resilience IQA Internal Quality Assurance STEM science, technology, engineering, and LEARN Lanka Education and Research Network mathematics LICs lower-income countries TEIs tertiary education institutions MENA Middle East and North Africa TENET Tertiary Education and Research MIS Management Information Systems Network of South Africa MOHE Ministry of Higher Education TVET technical and vocational education MOOCs Massive Open Online Courses UGSC University Governance Screening Card STEER (verb) 1. to direct the course 2. to pursue a course of action 2 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All FAQs Answering Key Questions on Tertiary Education Should low-income countries invest public in all realms of advanced research, policymak- resources in tertiary education, including ers are advised to invest selectively in promising research? areas that are locally relevant. Applied research needs to be contextualized and driven by both Yes. Economic research unequivocally illustrates current and prospective needs, including those high private and social rates of return for invest- arising from megatrends like global economic ments in tertiary education, including research integration, climate change, and population dy- (see p. 24). The benefits include higher employ- namics. While countries may have to adapt fund- ment and earnings, productivity growth and in- ing for research and teaching to their financing novation, greater social stability, more effective space, at a very minimum, all nations should be public sector bureaucracies, increased civic en- funding research that asks and seeks to answer gagement, and better health outcomes. The con- locally pertinent and relevant questions. sequences of underinvestment in tertiary educa- tion include talent loss, limited access to applied research capacity for local problem solving, hin- Should countries invest in tertiary dered economic growth due to low levels of skills education only after they can ensure in the workforce, low-quality teaching and learn- jobs for graduates? ing at every level of education, and, perhaps most glaringly, expanded wealth inequality both with- No, investments in tertiary education are needed in countries and among nations, with those in- in concert with policies to foster job creation. vesting proportionately more experiencing more Increasingly and in the expanding global knowl- innovation and attraction of investment. edge-based economy, firms’ decisions to invest are tied to the availability of a skilled workforce, At the same time, there needs to be a judicious alongside other aspects of the investment climate, balance of investments across all levels of edu- particularly in export-led industries of high val- cation within a given envelope of spending in ue-added and technology-intensive activities. education (which in many countries needs to Countries with a minimum workforce lacking expand). Policymakers need to balance their in- the required skills are less likely to attract more vestments in tertiary education with the need to technology- and R&D-intensive domestic or for- ensure all children acquire strong foundational eign investments. Moreover, there is a lag in the skills which will allow them to pursue and reap response of the supply of tertiary graduates to the the benefits of a tertiary education. That balance labor market demand from firms. Investments will vary across countries but should always in- and policy reforms to improve other important volve strong investments in tertiary education. aspects of the investment climate such as infra- structure, taxes, and regulations typically often In terms of research, while low- and middle-in- take a shorter time than it takes to produce a come countries will not be able to invest widely skilled adequate supply of graduates. FAQs 3 Countries face a real risk of coordination fail- students have largely enabled access for those ures: private firms refrain from investments in who could not pursue high-quality tertiary edu- high-potential sectors due to the lack of work- cation due to a lack of space, lack of preparation, ers with the needed skills, and at the same time or affordability; or in many cases access has ex- youth and adults do not invest in tertiary educa- panded through loosely regulated short-cycle pro- tion due to the lack of jobs. That is, inadequate grams whose quality varies considerably. To avoid investments in tertiary education can lead to a these issues, countries need to have deliberate vicious circle of a low-skilled workforce and in- and sound policies to concomitantly enable ac- sufficient jobs creation, which dampens the re- cess to disadvantaged groups such as merit-based turns to investments in tertiary education. To scholarships, grants and student loan programs, avoid this trap, investments in high-quality ter- and remedial interventions to ensure readiness tiary education need to be made in tandem with for postsecondary studies. (For a more complete other policy reforms to foster private invest- analysis of effective equity interventions, please ment and job creation, while establishing effec- go to p. 46). Moreover, countries should foster the tive mechanisms for aligning the expansion of development of a high-quality ecosystem of ter- supply of tertiary programs to employers and la- tiary education with a variety of options and flex- bor market needs such as skills sector councils, ible pathways, including high-quality, short-cycle tracking of graduates’ employability, and to com- tertiary education programs. municate regular information on the returns to different fields of study to help students make better choices. The result can be a virtuous cir- Can private, for-profit provision be part cle where investments in tertiary education go of the solution to ensure broad access to along with labor market needs, and a properly tertiary education? skilled workforce attracts the right investments that can create more and better jobs. Yes, provided governments strive to regulate effec- tively. With the projected growth in the popu- lation of students completing secondary educa- Will the sustained expansion of access tion, there will be enormous pressure to expand ensure the closing of equity gaps in tertiary tertiary education. It is unrealistic to envision education? that most national or state governments in low- and middle-income countries will be able to sat- No, not without further measures including merit- isfy this demand through increased public fund- and need-based approaches and a diversity of ing alone, while balancing the need to invest in options. To date, tertiary education expansion universal quality basic education and other sec- has generally not meant equitable access — that tors. Private (nonprofit and for-profit) provid- is, more students accessing tertiary education ers can fill the gap between what can be pro- globally has not resulted in proportionally more vided through public financing and the growing students enrolling from low socioeconomic sta- demand for postsecondary education (see from tus or underrepresented groups. While students p. 33). As noted below, if governments choose from all economic quintiles have been accessing to embrace private providers, particularly to in- tertiary education in greater numbers, the equity crease achievement in strategically important gap has expanded since the immediate beneficia- fields of study, they must simultaneously estab- ries tend to come from the upper socioeconom- lish and effectively implement quality assurance ic groups (and globally, expansion has occurred procedures and oversight to ensure private pro- in the wealthiest countries). These first waves of viders are held to high quality standards. 4 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Can governments effectively regulate the sector, and tertiary education institutions (TEIs) quality of expanding and diverse tertiary will need to operate more strategically as teach- education institutions? ing, learning, and research embrace and adapt to remote delivery and online settings (see from Yes, provided they invest adequately in implementa- p. 37). Building individual- and organization- tion capacity. The importance of quality assur- al-level digital skills supports efficiencies and pro- ance (QA) of tertiary education has been rising motes innovation and agility across core delivery around the world in response to several key de- areas: providing high-quality, adaptive teaching velopments. Chief among them is the expansion for students using advanced technologies; explor- of higher education, with a variety of providers, ing the opportunities being developed in digital which has put pressure on governments’ capacity research tools and methods; and establishing dig- to play this role effectively. Rapid expansion, par- ital competences that staff and students require ticularly among private and online providers, has in a digital world (see from p. 40). Digital capa- exposed the need for more robust QA instruments bilities enable institutions to take advantage of to address the multitude of low-quality providers, opportunities from online courses offered by ter- many of which need to be evaluated, accredited, tiary education institutions worldwide. Without and either improved or closed (see quality assur- investments in digitalization and digital skills, in- ance section, beginning p. 52). In many coun- dividuals and systems will fall further behind, as tries, tertiary institutions have been granted more has been exposed by the shifts in education de- autonomy in exchange for greater accountability, livery forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. resulting in the implementation of quality assur- ance processes, both internal to the institutions To achieve this potential, tertiary education sys- and external, often executed by a QA agency. An tems should invest in the development of their lo- important lesson is that countries not only need cal digital infrastructure toward building more consistent and coherent regulatory frameworks, agile and flexible systems. This could take place and to ensure the quality of provision of all pro- through the strategic allocation of institution- viders (public and private), but also need to in- al funding to expand and update technological vest in the development of institutional capacity infrastructure for digital pedagogy, investing in to implement these frameworks effectively. learning science, and training of faculty members. Institutions, staff, and students who are equipped with sound infrastructure, resources, and skills, Should digital skills and digital and who were already engaged in a culture of us- technologies be part of investments ing technology for teaching and learning, had a in tertiary education in low-income much easier transition to remote learning. countries? Yes, digital technology and capabilities are essen- tial to more resilient tertiary education systems. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed most clear- ly that digital technologies will be the primary resilience instrument for the tertiary education 5 Executive Summary As the world seeks to build back better into a new era of green and equitable economic growth, tertiary education systems are at the heart of the big transformations required throughout economies and soci- eties. Tertiary education is vital for the development of human capital and innovation. Strategic and effec- tive investments in tertiary education can serve every country—from the poorest to the richest—by developing its talent and leadership pool, generating, and applying knowledge to local and global chal- lenges, and participating in the global knowledge economy. Effective tertiary education sectors ensure that countries have well-trained doctors, nurses, teachers, managers, engineers, and technicians who are the main actors of effective education and health service delivery and public and private sector develop- ment. Decades of insufficient and ineffective investment in postsecondary education and the advanced skills developed through higher learning opportunities have only exacerbated global equity gaps. This paper describes the approach of the World Bank to support the development of effective, equitable, effi- cient, and resilient tertiary education systems and institutions. It discusses and illustrates five principles that guide the Bank’s financial and policy advisory support to STEER tertiary education systems toward optimizing their contribution to equitable and green growth: (i) building diversified Systems, (ii) invest- ing smartly in new Technologies, (iii) ensuring Equity in access and financing, (iv) achieving Efficiency in resource utilization, and (v) acquiring Resilience in service delivery so that learning continues. TERTIARY EDUCATION PRODUCES ADVANCED SKILLS AND INNOVATION THAT ARE ESSENTIAL TO GROWTH AND SOCIAL COHESION Tertiary education1 is both an aspiration for growing numbers of young people around the globe and a fundamental requirement for employment in the indus- tries that drive the global knowledge economy. As such, tertiary education is the central hinge for human capital development and equality of opportunity as well as promoting shared prosperity. A well-managed, strategically oriented, diversi- fied, and well-articulated tertiary education system is vital for producing the cal- iber and diversity of graduates needed both for the economy of today and for the economy of the future. From providing skills for immediate professional applica- tion to building stages of complexity of learning toward postgraduate studies and research, tertiary education offers multiple avenues for social mobility and the foun- dation to economic development. 1. Tertiary education encompasses all formal postsecondary/compulsory education, from technical and vocational education to advanced doctoral studies; however, this paper focuses primarily on International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) levels 5 – 8 (http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/ international-standard-classification-of-education-isced-2011-en.pdf). 6 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN TERTIARY EDUCATION ARE HIGH FOR INDIVIDUALS AND SOCIETIES, ALTHOUGH RETURNS ARE HETEROGENEOUS The imperative for investing in tertiary education derives from two major ques- tions — what if we do (benefits) and what if we do not (consequences)? The bene- fits include higher employment levels (that is, lower levels of unemployment), high- er wages, greater social stability, increased civic engagement, and better health outcomes. The experiences of many low- but also middle-income countries have exposed the consequences of underinvestment in tertiary education systems, includ- ing brain drain and talent loss, limited access to applied research capacity for local problem solving, limitations on economic growth due to low levels of skills in the workforce, low-quality teaching and learning at every level of education, and, per- haps most glaringly, expanded wealth inequality among nations, with those invest- ing proportionately more experiencing resultant growth rates far outpacing those with lower levels of investment and strategic development. Human capital and employment are key determinants of economic growth, togeth- er with total factor productivity and capital investments. Tertiary education not only increases individuals’ and societies’ human capital, but also leads to increased labor productivity and correlates with longer working lives. Moreover, tertiary education provides an important link to innovation, thereby impacting total fac- tor productivity across a nation’s economy. Technological innovation as well as adaption requires highly skilled individuals. Training graduates for the labor mar- ket — and that includes the local and global ones, the existing and future ones, and the ones that are emerging for industries yet to be created by these and future grad- uates — and employability more broadly — are human capital investments effective- ly delivered via tertiary education. Returns to tertiary education vary significantly across fields of study, institutions, and individuals, however. This variance often results from a combination of weak foundational skills of students when they enter tertiary education, insufficient qual- ity and quality assurance in the context of a sustained supply expansion, and lack of mechanisms to establish links with employers and provide regular information on labor market demands and returns to different programs of study. As a result, while average returns are high, due to the issues mentioned, tertiary education may not yield high returns for everyone. When tertiary institutions and training institutions devise their program offerings, and students choose study programs and institutions without clear information on program quality and labor market prospects, the out- comes can vary dramatically and even be negative. Investments in tertiary education need, therefore, to focus on ensuring quality, and account for current outcome objec- tives, but also be attuned to the changing needs of a dynamic environment in terms of skills demands, occupational profiles and types of tertiary education institutions, as well as modes of delivery (see section on Strategic Diversification of Systems, p. 33). Executive Summary 7 THE TERTIARY EDUCATION SECTOR HAS EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC CHANGES Globally, many long-standing challenges facing tertiary education have been steadi- ly addressed over the past 30 years — including expanded access, and measured rel- evance. New challenges continue to emerge, however, for which tertiary education institutions and their stakeholders are uniquely positioned to overcome, including: • Global expansion of access: While tertiary education is becoming the standard school leaving point in many (higher income) parts of the world, many coun- tries and regions are unable to keep up with such pace of such expanded access. Economic development challenges continue to stymie expanded enrollments in the world’s poorest countries (for example, average enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa remains stagnant at below ~9 percent). Such expanding inequality among nations in terms of access to and progression through tertiary education will further exacerbate the global inequalities between countries benefiting from the knowledge economy and those still largely excluded. • Digitalization: Technology is widely perceived as a potential great equalizer in tertiary education, but today it is also the great divider. With inconsistent con- nectivity, skeletal infrastructure, and limited access to devices, those students who need it most cannot profit from continuous learning provided via digital platforms at the tertiary level. • Quality and Relevance: Most middle-income countries continue to struggle with ensuring quality and relevance despite the significant resources invested in ter- tiary education. Returns to tertiary education, while high on average, are very heterogenous. Although there are challenges in measuring learning outcomes, employer surveys indicate persistent skills mismatches and individual and their families continue to invest in fields of study with dimmed labor market pros- pects. Tertiary systems are increasingly expected to develop the skills and inno- vation needed to sustain green and inclusive economic growth. • Internationalization and regional cooperation: Global interconnectivity, educa- tion, and experience are fundamental for countries, institutions, and individuals to harvest the benefits of cross-country cooperation on an equal footing; cur- rently, even with the known benefits of international cooperation and collabo- ration, impactful internationalization remains largely the privilege of the global elite. Regional cooperation has emerged as a powerful tool for tertiary education impact at scale and by investing in a strategic pooling of talent and resources. • Learning across a lifetime: Tertiary education institutions must continually re- vamp their operations to ensure their relevance as key lifelong learning players in a fast-changing environment where individuals need skilling and reskilling over a lifetime. In middle-income countries, however, such adaptations are often 8 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All extremely challenging, due to regulatory frameworks built around old-fashioned teaching/learning/research models for traditional student cohorts. This has resulted in: • A new emphasis on steering: While most countries recognize the crucial role, the sector can play in their advancement, the tertiary education sector often op- erates as a ship without a map and compass, 2 and subsequently without proper steering. Governance, financing, and quality assurance are central steering el- ements vital to ensuring the tertiary education sector is as high impact and ef- fective as possible. • A holistic view of the tertiary ecosystem: Adequate steering also ensures that the sector is considered in its entirety and not as isolated siloes of universities, technical institutions, colleges, and tertiary technical and vocational education institutions. Non-university tertiary education — which often provides the gate- way to tertiary education for students from lower income groups3 — is as import- ant a part of this ecosystem as universities, as countries strive to support multi- ple and well-articulated pathways through the whole tertiary education section while promoting efficient spending, expanded access, equity, applied and rele- vant research, and support to local companies and communities. It is essential that all institutions in the tertiary ecosystem are appropriately supported and quality assured and that systems are permeable, pathway options clear and ac- cessible, and that learners on all levels are supported. A FRAMEWORK FOR STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS IN TERTIARY EDUCATION This World Bank policy approach paper on tertiary education seeks to (i) rein- force the imperative that every country — regardless of level of development — invest thoughtfully and strategically in diversified and well-articulated tertiary education systems; (ii) provide a framework for policymakers and other tertiary education stakeholders to examine critical traits responding to the needs for advanced skills and lifelong learning in support of growth and development and key interventions for tertiary education systems in the decades ahead; (iii) examine the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic on the global tertiary education sector and share ideas that 2. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/224051491595233995/pdf/114142-WP-P155911-PUBLIC- TCc-Strategic-Directions-for-Higher-Education-14Dec16-FINAL.pdf. 3. Eurostudent.eu. 2018. Executive Summary 9 promote a resilient recovery from the crisis; and (iv) offer information about the content, context, and scale of the World Bank’s operational and analytical work in tertiary education.4 The guiding principle of this policy approach paper is that policymakers and aca- demic leaders must be purposeful in steering their tertiary sectors toward the national and institutional strategic goals. To achieve these goals, the World Bank has identified five key dimensions that are instrumental for creating agile, effective, and sustainable tertiary education, particularly in the post-COVID environment. Within this steering framework and with a view to turning the challenges wrought by the COVID-19 crisis into opportunities for impactful reforms, this paper encour- ages tertiary education policymakers and stakeholders to STEER their tertiary sys- tems and institutions, utilizing: — Strategically diversified systems — supporting all postsecondary insti- tutions, ensuring agile, articulated pathways and diversity of forms, func- tions, and missions • Developing future-oriented strategies that center on a strong contribu- tion of tertiary education not only to growth and competitiveness but also to social cohesion and human development more broadly for the tertia- ry education sector, subsectors, and institutions. This is an agenda for high- and middle-income countries but is particularly important for frag- ile and low-income countries that need to kick-start the technological in- novation and adaption engine and provide the young generation a pro- ductive and peaceful future. • Positioning tertiary education in a lifelong learning context with flexible pathways, second-chance options, and greater adaptability to the needs and opportunities afforded by employers, civil society, and governments. This means permeability across pathways and providers, modularization of learning offers, and student-centered credit systems to allow for flex- ible pathways as well as bridging and mentoring programs to boost ter- tiary remedial education to give everyone a good start and adequate sup- port in tertiary education. — Technology — designed and applied in a purposeful and equitable manner • Harnessing the power of technology to improve teaching and research capacity while simultaneously acknowledging and countering the impact of expanding digital divides. With tertiary education sectors massively 4. This information is primarily provided in Annex 1 of the document, while examples of World Bank opera- tional and analytical work can be found throughout the document. 10 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All expanding across the globe and low-income groups and countries trail- ing behind, technology might be the only way to effectively ensure equi- ty and resilience. • Building a digital ecosystem with the help of National Research and Ed- ucation Networks (NRENs) and effective collaboration across government portfolios. Harnessing the power of technology means that tertiary ed- ucation institutions not only profit from digitalization but also advance digitalization through the development of digital skills, and application of digitalization across its functions and related research and development. — Equity — a universal approach to the benefits and opportunities of postsec- ondary learning • Acknowledging that inequity is a form of injustice • Acting to ensure that equity and inclusion in access and success are a driv- ing ethos for an effective and relevant tertiary education system — Efficiency — a goal-oriented, effective use of resources • Improving information systems so that sectors, subsectors, and institutions can be managed and enhanced utilizing evidence and sound information • Devising and deploying governance, financing, and quality assurance in- struments that are designed to weather the current and potential future crises. — For financing, this means, for example, that systems and institutions diversify their funding base and reduce dependency on a single income source (which will require revisiting questions of cost-recovery and a rethinking of student grant and loan schemes in many countries) and use innovative funding mechanisms. — For quality assurance, this means that remote options for accredita- tion and evolution are established and applied when the environment requires such agility in ensuring quality under all conditions. — For governance, this means ensuring the external governance — legisla- tive and ministerial oversight — and institutional governance — boards and oversight bodies — are developed and operated in such a manner that promotes effective connections with external actors and the world of work and allows for rapid innovations to be tested and embraced in such a way that institutions are able to continue their operations with- in the scope of their charters and missions. Executive Summary 11 — Resilience — the ability to persist, flourish, and deliver agreed goals de- spite adversity • Acknowledging the need for resilience planning, by taking stock of the successes and failures of the COVID-19 response at the systems and institu- tional levels and analyzing options that would have mitigated the failures. • Utilizing adaptive governance frameworks to embed immediate, strategic resilience interventions to address significant short- and long-term chal- lenges facing tertiary education systems and institutions as a result of the shocks brought on by the pandemic, including diminished resources for institutions, personal and academic challenges for institutions and stu- dents, demand for improved infrastructure to support continued distance and blended learning models, reduced mobility placing pressures to im- prove regional and local tertiary institutions, questions of sustainability of funding models, and much more. These five aspects present critical building blocks with which tertiary education leaders and institutions can reframe and strengthen their systems for greater impact on learning, growth, innovation, and social development. N 1 TI O C SE Introduction 14 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Tertiary education5 is both the aspiration of young people around the globe and a fundamental requirement for employment in the industries that drive the glob- al knowledge economy. As such, tertiary education provides unique opportuni- ties for individual development and equality of opportunity as well as promoting shared prosperity. A well-managed, strategically oriented, diversified, and artic- ulated tertiary education system is vital for producing the caliber and diversity of graduates needed both for the economy that exists today and for the economy to which a nation aspires. From providing skills for immediate professional applica- tion to building stages of complexity of learning toward postgraduate studies and research, tertiary education offers limitless avenues for social mobility and eco- nomic development. The imperative for investing in tertiary education derives from two major ques- tions: What are the benefits of investing, and what are the consequences of not investing? The benefits include higher employment levels (that is, lower levels of unemployment), higher wages, greater social stability, increased civic engagement, and better health outcomes. Even more significant and, perhaps, revealing, is exam- ining what happens when countries underinvest in their tertiary education systems. The consequences of underinvestment include brain drain and talent loss, limited access to applied research capacity for local problem solving, limitations to eco- nomic growth due to low levels of skills in the workforce, low-quality teaching and learning at every level of education, and, perhaps most glaringly, expanded wealth inequality within and among nations, with those investing proportionately more experiencing resultant growth rates far outpacing those with lower levels of invest- ment and strategic development. The COVID-19 crisis exacerbated existing higher education challenges across all regions (see section on Resilience, p. 57). Many countries had achieved signifi- cant progress toward expanding higher education enrollment. Many of these same countries now face the dilemma of needing to address pervasive equity issues rap- idly and creatively, however, beyond the digital divide, while managing dwindling resources. In recent months, countries and individuals, as well as tertiary educa- tion institutions, paused, reconsidered, and revamped their activities in the light of COVID-19. Much of the initial discussion focused on infrastructure for online teaching and learning and connectivity. Additional mitigation measures will need to be selective and focused, given the fiscal constraints most governments are fac- ing, and the varying capabilities of systems to respond quickly and effectively. The collective motivation to respond in a time of crisis can be capitalized to address and fix persistent systemic weaknesses. Countries and institutions should consider not only making short-term adjustments in terms of accessibility, infrastructure, and equipment, but also drawing the right conclusions for the medium to long 5. Tertiary education encompasses all formal postsecondary/compulsory education, from technical and voca- tional education to advanced doctoral studies. Section 1   Introduction 15 term. This applies not only to modalities for teaching and learning, where a stron- ger emphasis on blended learning and more and better opportunities for online learning will be a desirable result, but also to a stronger emphasis on continuity of operations, student support, and welfare, including preparing for any possible future crises. BEYOND COVID-19: GLOBAL MEGATRENDS AND THE NEED FOR ADVANCED SKILLS 6 Building and transforming tertiary education systems today and tomorrow hap- pens in an extraordinarily and increasingly dynamic context. This includes accel- erating technological change, demographic shifts, challenges resulting from cli- mate change, and rising household and spatial inequalities. The move toward a green economy will change the demand for advanced skills and tertiary education and training more broadly. Tertiary education plays a key role in the move toward a green economy. This happens primarily in two ways: through the development of advanced “green skills,” and through research and innovation, with an emphasis on global warm- ing and how its effects can be mitigated. Neither is constraining to particular fields, like environmental science and engineering, but each needs to be considered as a cross-cutting theme for all areas of teaching and learning, as well as for research. In addition to this move toward a green economy, countries around the world face three megatrends that are reshaping the global economy: population shifts, global integration, and technological change (particularly, information and communica- tion technology [ICT] and related new digital technologies). Together, these factors pose both opportunities and challenges as they shape the types of jobs available and the demand and opportunities for education and skills acquisition — and ter- tiary education, in particular. Demographic changes and urbanization, the first trend, have an important bear- ing on tertiary education and skills formation. Many countries around the world, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, are experiencing youth bulges and are urban- izing quickly. The potential “demographic dividend” stemming from lower “depen- dency ratios” — by which the workforce grows faster than the dependent popula- tion — presents a window of opportunity as potentially raising per capita income enables families to invest in the skills of their offspring, and countries can trans- late the human capital accumulation of young cohorts into a more productive labor 6. The following section is based on Arias, Evans, and Santos (2019). 16 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All force. The larger cohorts of children entering and progressing through the educa- tion system pose the challenge of financing the educational expansion, however, while ensuring quality of provision. In other parts of the world, populations are declining, and the rise of the “silver economy” puts a strong emphasis on lifelong learning and innovation. The second trend impacting the demand for advanced skills is the increasingly interconnected nature of the global economy. Increased economic competition and the ensuing job creation and destruction impact the demand for skills. As firms and countries strive to find a niche in higher-value-added activities, they need workers with the advanced skills sets required to perform the related tasks. The third, and crucial, trend is the impact of digital technologies and robots and the ensuing rapidly changing world of work. Digital technologies are enabling auto- mation of routine (repetitive) tasks and destroying jobs intensive in routine and manual tasks. With the cost of digital technologies falling exponentially, jobs will increasingly involve more non-routine tasks requiring a mix of advanced cognitive, technical, and interpersonal skills. The Digital Dividends: World Development Report 2016 estimates that — from a technological standpoint — over 40 percent of today’s jobs in many developing countries may be at risk of being significantly transformed or altogether replaced by digital technologies over the next decades. The last two trends combined — shifting global integration and technological change — particularly in combination with a move toward green growth and cli- mate-change-induced challenges — are placing a premium on the adaptability of individuals and economies. While changes in the future world of work are hard to predict, the nature of new technologies demands adaptability and resilience of individuals and the workforce to navigate economic and job changes throughout their working lives in fast-changing labor markets. Policymakers need to factor in these megatrends in their strategies for tertiary edu- cation investments. There are four main takeaways. First, transformation toward green growth will place a premium on innovation and lead to an increased demand for advanced skills in support of this shift. Second, the trends will further raise the educational and social mobility aspirations of families and individuals, especially youth. Third, demand for non-routine tasks requiring cognitive and socio-emo- tional skills will continue to grow, while that of routine tasks preponderant in low- and medium-skill jobs will likely fall. And fourth, fast change will be the only con- stant, putting a premium on the adaptability of individuals and systems. One of the main results of these trends will be a continued increase in demand for qual- ity- and innovation-based tertiary education. Section 1   Introduction 17 TERTIARY EDUCATION CONTINUES ITS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH It is estimated that there will be 377.4 million students by 2030, 471.4 million by 2035, and 594.1 million by 2040, an increase of 281 percent over the 30 years from 2000 to 2030, higher than that experienced between 1970 and 2000.7 Most stu- dents will still be from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and G20 countries (figure 1.1), but massive expansion will nonetheless strain systems around the world and, most notably, in developing countries, where more and more young people are expected to seek tertiary education. Student mobil- ity across the globe, predominantly from the global south to the north, will like- wise grow. In OECD countries, humanities, social sciences, and education domi- nate enrollments; however, data from other G20 countries show a somewhat more balanced distribution that slightly skews toward science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) graduates.8 FIGURE 1.1  Projections of share of 25 – 34-year-olds with tertiary education, 2013, 2030, selected countries (percent) 17 14 14 10 6 4 4 4 3 32 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 6 2013 137 M 25 – 34 year-olds with Tertiary Education 2030 300 M 27 8 23 4 3 5 5 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 11 2 11 3 6 China United States India Russian Federation Japan Indonesia Brazil Korea Mexico United Kingdom France Germany Canada Turkey Spain Poland Argentina Italy Australia Saudi Arabia Other Sources: OECD 2015; OECD database; UNESCO; and national statistics websites for Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Note: Percents in these figures are estimates based on available data. The population estimations are based on the OECD annual population projections (http://stats.oecd.org/). The figure reflects education policy targets for individual countries. Tertiary education institutions (TEIs) will need to adapt and evolve their academic programs and organizational structures to accommodate the emerging diversity across the population of students, and, given the need for periodic upskilling and reskilling, transform themselves into lifelong learning providers. With increases in student numbers and in many countries the retirement of academic staff, which could provide an opportunity for a modernization of teaching and learning, TEIs 7. Calderon 2018. 8. OECD 2015. 18 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All must also ensure that they are training a cohort of young academics to continu- ally build the pool of knowledge producers. And in addition to meeting these chal- lenges, TEIs must be more responsive to labor market demands by ensuring that graduates are adequately prepared for entry into the labor market. BUT WHAT ABOUT AFRICA? Seventy-four percent of the expected global growth for the population aged 18 – 23 from 2015 to 2035 will be concentrated in 10 countries: Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda, and Tanzania.9 With so much of this growth set to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is an even greater imperative to expand investments and opportunities in the tertiary sectors across the region, to maximize the relevant outcomes advanced skills and research bring to individuals and societies (box 1.1.). Rapid and continu- ing youth population growth presents a stark challenge for all the aforementioned countries and, genuinely, all governments and TEIs around the world, particularly in their ability to anticipate and respond to social, political, and economic needs BOX 1.1  Sub-Saharan Africa strives to catch up The university must become a primary tool for Africa’s FIGURE B1.1.1  Gross tertiary enrollment rates, by region development in the new century. Universities can help develop African expertise; they can enhance the anal- High income ysis of African problems; strengthen domestic institu- tions; serve as a model environment for the practice of 70 Europe & Central Asia 41 good governance, conflict resolution, and respect for 28 human rights, and enable African academics to play an active part in the global community of scholars. Latin America & Caribbean — Kofi Annan East Asia & Pacific Though global enrollment in higher education is expand- ing faster than at any point in history, Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa is falling further behind, despite the region’s enrollment rates doubling every 20 years since 1978. Today, Sub-Sa- South Asia haran Africa has the lowest participation rates in tertiary 9 education in the world (figure B1.1.1). Sub-Saharan Africa 4 2 At the same time, however, tertiary education graduates in Sub-Saharan Africa realize the highest rates of return 0 20 40 60 80 to investment in their education (table B1.1.1). This reflects Percent the lack of supply for highly demanded advanced skills in the region and should spur both national investment 1978 1998 2018 in tertiary education and individual interest in attaining Sources: : World Bank, World Development Indicators (2018); UNESCO Institute postsecondary credentials. for Statistics (UIS). 9. Calderon 2018. Section 1   Introduction 19 TABLE B1.1.1  Educational rates of return, by region Region Primary Secondary Tertiary Countries Sub-Saharan Africa 14.4 10.6 21.0 33 South Asia 6.0 5.0 17.3 7 Latin America & Caribbean 7.8 5.4 15.9 23 East Asia 13.6 5.3 14.8 13 Middle East and North Africa 15.0 4.5 10.5 10 Europe and Central Asia 13.9 4.7 10.3 20 All economies 11.5 6.8 14.6 130 Source: Montenegro and Patrinos 2014. in the decades to come. Promoting tertiary education as a means of addressing key strategic and policy imperatives requires ensuring that tertiary education is suit- able for and adaptable to local and global terms. ADVANCED SKILLS AND HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY ARE ESSENTIAL IN RAPIDLY CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENTS Whether experiencing population growth or decline, tertiary education systems must adapt to a changing demographic environment and ensure that the abilities of graduates match the needs of their societies. Population decline in most middle-in- come and high-income countries will put pressure on productivity and demand an acceleration of innovation — including in the context of the green economy — serv- ing an aging society. Institutions will be required to redefine themselves outside of traditional delivery and learn to serve as centers for lifelong learning, reskill- ing, innovation, inclusion, and, potentially, as partners with employers, for exam- ple, on targeted micro-credentials. In countries experiencing demographic growth, more and more diversified institutions are required for a bulging student pipeline. TEIs must be agile, able to identify their niche, and open to expansion in their sec- tors. Regardless of the demographic setting, all TEIs must be committed to quality and remain flexible in the face of rapid change in their student populations. The decades ahead will be defined by these populations shocks, and tertiary education systems must be prepared to adapt to them. This World Bank policy approach paper on tertiary education has four main goals: i. Reinforce the imperative that every country, regardless of level of development, invests thoughtfully and strategically in well-managed, appropriately resourced, 20 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All accessible, diversified, and well-articulated tertiary education systems. This ex- plicitly includes low-income countries, which need to catch up in terms of ge- neric and subject-specific skills development, as well a technological innova- tion and adoption. ii. Provide a framework for policymakers and other tertiary education stakehold- ers to assess the viability of their existing systems for the future outcomes they seek and determine the key intervention issues for their tertiary education sys- tems in the decades ahead. iii. Consider the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic on the global tertiary education sector and offer ideas that would underpin a resilient recovery from the crisis. iv. Offer information about the content, context, and scale of the World Bank’s operational and analytical work in tertiary education. TO ENSURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED (INCLUDING GREEN) SKILLS AND RESEARCH AND INNOVATION, COUNTRIES NEED TO STEER The guiding principle of this policy approach paper is that policymakers and aca- demic leaders must be purposeful in steering their tertiary sectors toward national and institutional strategic goals. To achieve these goals, the World Bank has iden- tified five key dimensions that are instrumental for creating agile, effective, and sustainable tertiary education, particularly in the post-COVID-19 environment. To reach these goals, tertiary education requires purposeful STEERing, using: — Strategically diversified systems — supporting all postsecondary insti- tutions, ensuring agile, articulated pathways and diversity of forms, func- tions, and missions — Technology — designed and applied in a purposeful and equitable manner — Equity — a universal approach to the benefits and opportunities of postsec- ondary learning — Efficiency — a goal-oriented, effective use of resources — Resilience — the ability to persist, flourish, and deliver agreed goals de- spite adversity. Section 1   Introduction 21 These five aspects present critical building blocks with which tertiary education leaders and institutions can reframe and strengthen their systems for greater impact on learning, growth, innovation, and social development. The rest of this policy approach paper is structured as follows: i. Section 2 discusses the role of tertiary education for economic and social development ii. Section 3 provides a STEERing framework for policymakers and stakeholders embarking on strengthening the sector (this section will include key learnings from the COVID-19 crisis) iii. Section 4 provides policy recommendations for moving forward iv. Annex 1 and Annex 2 present an overview on the World Bank’s global work and portfolio in tertiary education. v. Annex 3 provides detailed information on the World Bank’s Human Capital initiatives N 2 TI O C SE Tertiary education: A vital investment for economic development and poverty reduction 24 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Tertiary education is instrumental in fostering long-term growth and boosting shared prosperity in all countries, whether high, middle, or low income. The ben- efits of quality tertiary education are felt at the individual and societal levels, lead- ing to improvements in a wide array of positive externalities including improved social development, productivity, and governance (figure 2.1). Twenty-first century skills require advanced and enhanced learning opportunities, which implies a key role for the tertiary education sector. Institutions FIGURE 2.1  Routes of economic and social benefits need to be reinvigorated toward maximizing their via tertiary education potential and that of their students, especially at a time of continued strong expansion of tertiary Productivity education in many regions of the world and rapid Enterpreneurship changes in the global and national environments. Specialization Jobs Econimic Workers with a quality postsecondary education Growth are more employable, earn higher wages, and cope better with economic shocks. Economic returns for a tertiary graduate are the highest in the en- Sustained Tertiary Increased Spending Income tire educational system — an average 17 percent Education Tax Revenues Growth more in earnings per year of tertiary schooling compared with 10 percent for primary and 7 per- cent for secondary education.10 R&D Poverty Reduction FDI No teachers, doctors, engineers, and Governance managers without tertiary education Safety Social Development In addition to private (individual) benefits, the so- cial benefits are also substantial. A highly skilled Source: Based on Bloom et al. (2014). workforce with a quality-assured postsecond- Note: FDI = foreign direct investment; R&D = research and development. ary education is a prerequisite for a country’s innovation and long-term growth.11 Likewise, research on the societal and private benefits of tertiary education12 finds that, “Tertiary schooling can also have less direct benefits for economies. By produc- ing well-trained teachers, it enhances the quality of primary and secondary edu- cation systems and gives secondary graduates greater opportunities for economic 10. Psacharopoulos and Patrinos 2018. 11. There is ample evidence of the role education, including tertiary education, has played in boosting eco- nomic growth. One such example is the Republic of Korea which, when it was established in 1948, was one of the poorest countries in the world. It grew to be the world’s 15th richest economy, however, by investing in and strengthening education at all levels, including providing universal access to tertiary education. Interestingly, already in the early 1980s, Korea started placing higher education in a lifelong learning context: “The Korea National Open University that became independent from Seoul National University in 1982, provided oppor- tunities for lifelong education at low tuition for those who did not receive higher education. In addition, open universities (industrial universities) that started from 1982, expanded opportunities for higher education for industrial laborers and working youth” (http://www.koreaneducentreinuk.org/wp-content/uploads/down- loads/Education_the-driving-force-for-the-development-of-Korea.pdf). 12. Bloom et al. 2014. Section 2    Tertiary education: A vital investment for economic development 25 advancement. By training physicians and other health workers, it improves a soci- ety’s health, raising productivity at work. And by nurturing governance and lead- ership skills, it provides countries with the talented individuals needed to estab- lish a policy environment favorable to growth.” Benefits of tertiary education are summarized in table 2.1. TABLE 2.1  Benefits of tertiary education Private Public Market Higher lifetime earnings (through employment and pro- Net government receipts (tax revenues/fees), innovation ductivity effects) and savings/investments/consumer and entrepreneurial activity, labor productivity spillovers spending Increase in the generation of new knowledge for inno- Accumulation of broader and deeper (advanced) skills vation Rapid application and adoption of existing global knowl- edge to local challenges/concerns Regional development Non-Market Improved health and well-being, pure consumption Broader benefits like increased confidence in democracy effects, etc. and democratic institutions, political stability, lower rates Increased civic engagement and charitable giving; lower of poverty or reduced inequality criminal activity and incarceration Improved child welfare and (next generation) educational outcomes Decrease in government spending for social programs Source: Based on Deloitte Access Economics (2016) (expanded by authors). While it is helpful to take the economic benefits of investments in education into account, policymakers are advised to consider the sector holistically. Investing in pre-tertiary or in tertiary education are not viable alternatives; investments need to take place over a student’s and cohort’s lifecycle and in a lifelong learning con- text. Tertiary education cannot exist without primary and secondary education laying the foundation for advanced learning; however, without investments in ter- tiary education, investments in basic education cannot realize their full returns. And without investments in tertiary education, there will be no effective teachers ensuring quality education for children or for doctors or nurses or engineers, to give just a few examples.13 In countries facing demographic decline and in countries with a youth surge, the demand for expanded access to tertiary education increases. It is impossible to pre- dict what jobs will be available in the future, but there is consensus that they will require a new type of graduate — one with adaptive and advanced levels of skills. Given that two significant challenges facing education policymakers, regardless of 13. Moreover, path dependencies need to be considered. With schooling choices being made sequentially, the return to one stage may be low (for example, graduating from primary or secondary school), but the return to the next stage may be high, hence creating an option value at the stage with low terminal payoff. The ear- lier stage must be completed to obtain the higher return arising at the later stage. Thus, a full estimation of the return to secondary education needs to account for the opportunity to invest and appropriate the returns at a higher level. 26 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All national demographic momentum, are providing learning opportunities for all and ensuring that students get in-demand skills, modernizing tertiary education insti- tutions and systems to embrace dynamic change is imperative. TERTIARY EDUCATION SYSTEMS NEED TO DIVERSIFY FOR RELEVANCE, EFFICIENCY, AND RESILIENCE A diversified, flexible, and fully articulated tertiary education system is a com- plex but vital element in a relevant and resilient education sector. Tertiary educa- tional systems (and the societies they serve) must strengthen postsecondary techni- cal and vocationally oriented streams and promote them as of equal importance to traditional university education. Strengthening the range of postsecondary institu- tions — such as community colleges, polytechnic institutions, and technical train- ing institutions — into one single ecosystem together with universities provides diversified pathways to skills development for students of all abilities, interests, and outcome goals. Establishing clear articulation mechanisms to allow students to move across academic and technical tracks along their lives, promotes learn- ing as a lifelong opportunity as individuals navigate their place in a rapidly chang- ing labor market. Tertiary education systems and institutions must also become more resilient to external shocks. The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic epitomizes this dramatic shock requiring rapid and transformational adaptations on the part of every ele- ment of tertiary education. Embedding resilience into tertiary education involves not only a diversification and modernization of modes of delivery, (such as online learning, connecting institutions, and providing technical capacity via National Research and Education Networks [NRENs]), but also via more adaptive and flex- ible financing approaches and quality assurance mechanisms. Tertiary education needs an innovation and a lifelong learning approach As tertiary education has expanded from being the privilege of the elite toward being accessible to increasing numbers of students around the world (see figure 2.2), pressures on the sector require innovative thinking on access and quality. Tertiary education in the 21st century thus features a combination of old problems and prom- ises and new challenges and opportunities. To address the former and amplify the latter, purposeful policies and interventions require imagination and vigor. This includes better provision of data as the basis for evidence-based policy making, and fit-for-purpose quality assurance at the institutional and system level. Section 2    Tertiary education: A vital investment for economic development 27 FIGURE 2.2  Gross Enrolment Ratio in tertiary education, 1970 – 2019 100 90 North America 80 OECD members 70 Europe & Central Asia 60 Percent Latin America & Caribbean 50 East Asia & Pacific Middle East & North Africa 40 World 30 South Asia 20 10 Sub-Saharan Africa 0 1970 1976 1978 1972 1974 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: World Bank; UIS (data as of September 2020). Note: Total enrollment in tertiary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the total population of the five-year age group following on from secondary school leaving. Rapid technological innovations require upskilling and reskilling and are driving changes to economies and societies, challenging human capabilities in unprece- dented ways. As countries experience sustained growth in enrollment numbers and continue to move up the economic ladder, low-skilled and repetitive jobs will con- tinue to disappear, while the demand for advanced skills will continue to rise.14 Climate change is already impacting skills demand and is increasingly reflected in tertiary learning as well as research and development. Technical skills — that is, skills for a specific field, like engineering or computer programming — remain in high demand, while generic or transferable skills related to communication, lead- ership, teamwork, and critical and adaptive thinking grow in value in the global labor market. Critical thinking and the ability to thrive in evolving contexts will prove invaluable for the further accumulation of knowledge, skills, and compe- tences over a lifetime. Indeed, in this evolving environment, adaptability through- out a lifetime of work will be essential, and Tertiary Education Institutions will need to put a stronger emphasis on lifelong learning opportunities. Expanded demand for advanced skills, including in the context of the green econ- omy will drive the continued strong expansion of tertiary education, which has been ongoing globally for nearly a century. Expansion does not require univer- sal university/higher education; technical and vocational education (TVET) at the secondary and tertiary levels can play an important role in expansion and skills 14. See, for example, Levy and Murnane (2004). 28 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All development, but these different educational subsectors will need to become bet- ter integrated and develop clear and accessible pathways between university-led tertiary education and postsecondary TVET. Learning over a lifetime will become the norm for workers, as the economy and labor market of the 21st Century evolves rapidly in the face of technological advanc- es and continued globalization. Tertiary education systems, when diversified effec- tively across institution missions and types, certifications and degrees awarded, and costs and when articulated well, to allow for re-entry and continued learning within and across institutions, provide the most robust mechanism for a lifetime of learning and skills development. Flexible pathways benefit from modularization, clear articulation, and bridging options. More attention must be paid to how the non-university tertiary education sector, which plays a vital role in efficient and fully articulated systems, relates to the university sector, to promote a single eco- system of tertiary education opportunities. N 3 TI O EC S STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 32 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Tertiary education systems are characterized and distinguished in multiple ways, including: • By the issues these systems try to address, such as access and equity, employabil- ity, innovation, and the role universities play in regional development • By the diversity of mission and forms of institutional delivery, serving the com- plex needs of complex societies • By the roles of different actors such as learners, academics, higher education in- stitutions, ministries, and families • By key instruments like governance and management, financing, and quality assurance • Through the way these systems integrate with international developments and act as international (or primarily national or local) actors • Through the application of distinct tools and the extent to which they endorse (and drive) new technologies. Other distinctive features are how tertiary education is organized, for example, via the integration with other subsectors like adult learning, its links to outside actors, and multiple ways systems and institutions serve their mission (figure 3.1). In an environment with a multitude of public and private providers, learning path- ways and credentials, transparency can be supported through, among other ways, clearly stated learning outcomes (descriptors) systematized in national and sectoral qualifications frameworks. As the World Bank works with governments on tertiary education, these different aspects need to be considered. FIGURE 3.1  STEERing Tertiary Education EFFECTIVE STEERing REQUIRES… Strategically Diversified Systems Tertiary Education Institutions Governments Technology Equity Leadership, academics, Employers, investors, E ciency administration innovators, entrepreneurs Resilience Students Civil society Within this context of purposeful stewardship of tertiary education, the World Bank has identified five key dimensions that are instrumental for creating agile, effec- tive, and sustainable tertiary education, particularly in the post- COVID-19 environ- ment. To reach these goals, tertiary education requires purposeful STEERing, using: Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 33 — Strategically diversified systems — supporting all postsecondary insti- tutions, ensuring agile, articulated pathways and diversity of forms, func- tions, and missions — Technology — designed and applied in a purposeful and equitable manner — Equity — a universal approach to the benefits and opportunities of postsec- ondary learning — Efficiency — a goal-oriented, effective use of resources — Resilience — the ability to persist, flourish, and deliver agreed goals de- spite adversity. These five aspects present critical building blocks with which tertiary education leaders and institutions can reframe and strengthen their systems for greater impact on learning, growth, innovation, and social development. These driving issues will be discussed in the following sections. STRATEGICALLY DIVERSIFIED SYSTEMS Every country should be exploring the opportunities afforded by diversifying the scope and missions of various tertiary education institution forms and providers, to meet the equally diverse needs and challenges of modern society and maximize the value of public and private investments in the sector. A diversified and flexible tertiary education sys- FIGURE 3.2  An effective, diversified, and articulated tertiary tem is vital to create the variety of interwoven education system pathways crucial to meeting the needs of students Universities, Polytechnics and society alike. Educational systems (and soci- and Post-Secondary Colleges eties) must strengthen technical streams and move away from historic ideas of narrowly defined pres- tige or valuable learning and skills coming on- ly via elite universities. An indispensable tool for expanded access and effective learning is the cre- Pathways Technical and vocational education ation and strengthening of a range of postsec- and training (TVET) ondary institutions such as community colleges, polytechnic institutions, and technical training in- stitutions, all of which are part of one single eco- system, together with universities (figure 3.2). Short-term Skills Training Providers Well-functioning tertiary education systems re- quire strategic diversification and purposeful, 34 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All agile articulation mechanisms that form the foundations for success in teaching, learning, and research. Moreover, strategically steered systems depend on purpose- ful governance, management, and leadership, which support setting and achieving goals. Both public and private tertiary education providers need to be able to fulfil the broad functions demanded of the tertiary education sector, as outlined in the section above. There also needs to be a division of roles in terms of sector steer- ing. For example, a ministry ensures that suitable legislation and funding mechanisms are in place; BOX 3.1  India’s plan to build the biggest tertiary education system in the world however, its role will be complemented by insti- tutional stakeholders — public and private, possi- Fueled by its drive toward further growth and competitiveness, bly buffer bodies, a regulatory and/or quality as- India has embraced the transformational power of tertiary edu- surance agency, think tanks, and data warehouses cation and is planning to put the sector to work in the coming and essential players like rectors’ councils, student decades. A technological, pharmaceutical, and service-sec- organizations, chambers, and industry bodies. An tor powerhouse for South Asia and the world, India plans to diversify its tertiary education sector, make institutions more example of such an ambitious and far-reaching autonomous, and double its Gross Enrolment Ratio in the next sector strategy is provided in box 3.1.15 15 years through, among other things, the use of digitalization and an emphasis on equity and research and development. Establishing clear articulation mechanisms, to al- These goals were laid down in a new sector strategy, the low students to move across academic and techni- National Education Policy (NEP), which was endorsed by the Government of India in August 2020. Further aspects of the cal and vocational tracks along their lives is vital NEP include: in a rapidly changing labor market and in a con- • A strong emphasis on equity and inclusion text where learning will truly be a lifelong expe- • A diversification of the sector through the establishment of rience. Moreover, well-articulated and diversified multidisciplinary institutions systems of tertiary education are less expensive, • Enhancement of learning environments and support for students enrolling the majority of students in lower-cost • Strengthening of research capacity teaching institutions while allowing for progres- • Empowerment of institutional leadership and strengthening sive degree attainment for those students seek- of institutional autonomy • Development of career progression pathways for aca- ing opportunities for more expensive, advance demic staff studies. • Greater focus on online and distance learning • Disclosure of information to strengthen public oversight. The California (USA) “Master Plan” provides a The World Bank has been engaged in the Indian tertiary edu- helpful framework for understanding a diversified cation sector for decades through investment projects at the central and state level as well as analytical work. Through its and fully articulated system of tertiary education, newest engagement, the Bank sets out to support the imple- with pathways for every secondary school gradu- mentation of the NEP, bringing global experience to the table ate in the state of California to access some form while the envisaged biggest tertiary education system in the of tertiary education from community college, world takes shape. to teaching-oriented universities, to research-in- tensive universities. Signed into law in 1960, the Master Plan codified strategic priorities still rele- vant to global tertiary education systems today, including: transforming a collection of uncoordinated and, often, competing colleges and universities into a coherent system that allowed for prioritizing both quality and access; establishing a broad framework for postsecondary education that encourages each of the various public 15. For details, see: https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf. Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 35 higher education segments to concentrate on creating its own kind of excellence within its own particular set of missions and responsibilities; and acknowledging the vital role of autonomous colleges and universities, while envisioning higher edu- cation in California as a single continuum of educational opportunity, from small private colleges to large, world-class public universities.16,17 Legislation governing tertiary education systems and institutions should be lean and adaptable, focused on basic principles while delegating more detailed provi- sions to by-laws. Overly complex legislation hampers adaptations and change and, contrary to the intention of legislators, leads to more confusion and quickly out- dated provisions instead of providing the basis for clarity in sector steering. Governance arrangements need to be effective and transparent Strategic, effective steering at the system and institutional levels not only requires the right type of actors to be involved, but also clear strategic direction and pro- cesses at every step. The implementation of strategies needs to be monitored, actions need to be consequential, and the capacity of key actors needs to be strengthened. Key characteristics of effective steering lead to strategic development and gover- nance, autonomy and accountability, cooperation, and participation, as well as dif- ferentiation of functions and distribution of powers.18 Effective governance at the institutional level is critical and involves a kind of balance of power among outside actors, the central management, and individual units. As with state actors vis-à-vis individual universities, the central management of institutions steers individual units toward achievement of jointly derived goals. Where constituent units like faculties are legally autonomous, as still is the case in some former-Yugoslav countries, for example, it is difficult to have fully competi- tive and goal-driven institutions. Among institutional actors, external boards have become a prominent way of in- volving outside stakeholders in the governance of institutions. Their key functions often include guidance on the institution’s overall strategic direction, performance monitoring, approval of annual and/or financing reports, and serving as a bridge between the institution and its outside environment. Individual board members often serve as ambassadors for the institution, which is particularly important for 16. University of California Office of the President (2009). California Master Plan for Higher Education | Major Features; https://web.archive.org/web/20131228061941/http://ucfuture.universityofcalifornia.edu/doc- uments/ca_masterplan_summary.pdf. 17. Other examples for strong articulation mechanisms can be found in countries like Germany and Austria as well as Scandinavian countries which feature strong technical and vocational education systems. In these cases, TVET is not seen as a one-way road but as part of a lifelong learning journey which opens door for many more options, including for tertiary education. 18. Arnhold et al. 2018. 36 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All institutions that want to develop a stronger external national and/or internation- al standing. Within institutions, there needs to be a suitable balance between le- gitimization of decisions and academic tasks (often represented by larger bodies like the senate) and executive functions at the central and unit level. While there is a need for efficient decision making, it is important that key stakeholders includ- ing academics, students, employers, and unions, have a voice. Measuring effective governance remains a significant challenge, however, so new initiatives like the governance benchmarking exercise in the Middle East and North Africa (box 3.2) may offer scalable options for ensure governance is implemented and assessed as fit for purpose.19 BOX 3.2  Benchmarking university governance in the Middle East and North Africa: A tool for addressing challenges within the tertiary education sector in the region and beyond The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) University higher education institutions (HEIs) with the overall aim of Governance and Quality Assurance Program stems from a improving tertiary education provision. partnership between the Education Global Practice of the One of the pillars of the program is the improvement of World Bank and the Marseille Center for Mediterranean university governance based on the implementation of the Integration. Its purpose is to foster openness, information University Governance Screening Card (UGSC). The UGSC sharing, and collective learning among tertiary education is a mechanism that was developed in 2010 as a bench- institutions in the MENA region, and between them and marking tool to assess the extent to which HEIs in the policymakers, quality assurance agencies, and employers. MENA region are following governance practices aligned The program efforts, activities, publications, and partner- with their institutional goals, national policies, and inter- ships have evolved through the Regional MENA Tertiary national trends, and which has been implemented in 120 Education Network, which has served as a platform to universities from eight MENA countries since 2015. What promote the exchange of information and lessons learned is unique about the governance benchmarking approach is from the implementation of reforms. At the multi-country the development of self-reflection capacity within institu- level, it aims at creating a solid knowledge base from which tions. Unlike other tools, the UGSC does not rank institu- to foster collaboration and cooperation through a network tions, but allows for the possibility of identifying areas of of experts, programs, and institutions. At the country level, strength among local partners, and areas that states may its objective is to support capacity building at individual choose to further develop. Sector steering needs to focus on outcomes and results. Relevant outcomes for stu- dents, families, institutions, society, and the economy include research and inno- vation from academic staff, employability and employment rates of graduates, and satisfaction of workers and employers with the skills developed through tertiary education. Unlike compulsory education, where standardized curriculums make standardized testing of learning outcomes possible, tertiary education is much more diverse and individualized, making common outcome assessments nearly impos- sible to conduct. One tool that has worked well across countries in providing a focus on the outcomes of tertiary education studies is graduate tracer studies, which provide survey data on the experiences of graduates (in terms of employment, fur- ther study, and satisfaction with their education experiences) at set intervals after 19. Further, the World Bank supports countries in benchmarking their tertiary education policies and instru- ments with the help of the Systems Approach for Better Education Results — SABER (Annex 2, p. 60f). Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 37 completion of programs or degrees. Whether conducted at the national level, such as the experience in Bangladesh (box 3.3), or at the institutional level, which is the norm in the United States, for instance, graduate tracer studies allow system lead- ers to evaluate granular data on the outcomes of graduates following their studies. BOX 3.3  Tracking graduates — A powerful evidence base for the employability discourse in Bangladesh When graduating from universities, colleges, or polytechnics, workshops, meetings, and printed publications. The results, many students in Bangladesh face a potentially long job which often confirmed anecdotal evidence with hard search. While the economy is booming, and tertiary education data, became an important point of reference for setting generates ever more graduates, employers continue to policy priorities and fostered discussions on improving the complain about difficulties finding the right candidates. At the employability of graduates within the sector. same time, higher education institutions are often in the dark The implementation of graduate tracer studies (GTS) in about what happens to their graduates. Thus, a much strong- Bangladesh yielded three key learnings of relevance also er evidence base about employment outcomes of graduates for other countries. First, GTS provide crucial information and employers’ perceptions was needed to feed into the for policymakers, but may face resistance due to a variety discourse on quality and relevance of tertiary education. of political and practical reasons. Here, institutions like Between 2016 and 2018, the World Bank supported the the World Bank can play an important role by initiating the Government of Bangladesh in undertaking graduate tracer required change. Second, GTS should include feedback studies in all three tertiary education subsectors (that is, from employers on graduates’ skills levels, as this provides universities, affiliated colleges, and polytechnics). The over- particularly useful information for institutions and adds arching objective was to allow policymakers and educa- credibility to the findings of GTS. Third, as the results of tional practitioners to obtain a comprehensive understand- GTS tend to prove that the situation is worse than expected ing of the quality and relevance of programs as well as of by academics and institutions, ensuring stakeholder par- access and equity issues, also in a comparative perspective ticipation in the preparation of GTS and providing frequent among subsectors. This was the first time that systematic feedback and consultation opportunities on the results evidence on graduates was generated in Bangladesh, and are critical to ensure strong buy-in and commitment to the the results of the tracer studies were disseminated through survey findings. Sources: World Bank 2017, 2018a, 2019a. TECHNOLOGY Technology is bringing transformative innovations and change to tertiary education, but faith in technology to expand access must be coupled with attention to equity and quality considerations and the implications of an expanded digital divide within and across countries. Technology in general, and digitalization of delivery, in particular, are no longer the future for tertiary education; they are the present. No system can afford to ignore or diminish its commitment to effective technology. Instead of being a force for expanded access and equity, as it could and should be, unequal access to digitaliza- tion — including devices and connectivity — can make technology a factor widening equity gaps. Tertiary education systems around the world have had widely varying experiences with adapting new realms of technology for local delivery of teaching 38 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All and research, and this variance became glaringly evident with shocks COVID-19 forced onto the sector. Within weeks of the virus’ spread from East Asia in January 2020, countries the world over were forced to suddenly adapt at an unprecedent- ed pace, however, with a common goal of continuing their work in teaching and research in whatever ways possible. Technology, once seen as a disrupter, became the anchor, and distance delivery became the norm. How successful this transi- tion and reliance on technology for sustaining core tertiary education functions is remains to be assessed, but there is no doubt that without it, most of the world’s tertiary education would have come to a standstill and remained there for a while. Tertiary education, through its students, academic staff, and graduates, has been the driver in the development and use of these and other disruptive technologies that are now changing how they work and who they serve. In a context that is often accused of conservative thinking and slow adaptation to change, universities and research centers are often the hubs of dramatic, creative thinking and ambi- tious explorations. Technology is both the tool and the outcome of these endeav- ors, which are changing not just tertiary education, but the world (box 3.4). BOX 3.4  Evoke — Using technology to develop 21st century skills at Uniminuto University, Colombia The World Bank developed the Evokea project in response placed in a project-based learning framework. Empathy is to tertiary education’s demand for innovative methodol- an important skill to learn by itself to better understand the ogies to define, operationalize, and assess 21st century perspectives of others. When empathy is taught in terms of skills. Evoke is a project-based learning model that uses understanding the plight of a displaced person in Colombia storytelling, game mechanics, and global social networks and focusing on creating a solution to their challenges, the to imbue young people with the skills they need to develop skill is given a stronger purpose. social innovations and acquire 21st century skills (for The primary research question of the evaluation was: example, creativity, collaboration, and critical reflection) to To what extent does Evoke improve participants’ social experiment, collaborate, and create social innovations in innovator 21st century and socio-emotional skills as com- their communities. pared to the control groups? During the semester, Evoke Evoke was implemented and evaluated over one semester students demonstrated statistically significant greater with 297 students at the Soacha campus of Uniminuto learning outcomes in 21st century and socio-emotional skills, Universityb on the outskirts of Bogotá, Colombia. The which enabled them to be more innovative, empathetic, theme of this Evoke module was peace and displaced collaborative, and better problem solvers. The effect on persons. Soacha is a community of thousands of people skills acquisition was medium, which is strong for a brand- violently displaced by conflict in Colombia. A randomized new program when compared with the well-established control trial with a pre-test–post-test control group design programs, and especially strong when considering that was implemented to evaluate the project. The theory is that this was not a small supplemental intervention but a whole these future skills can be taught in isolation, but that they program that replaced five existing university classes for an are more powerful when combined with each other and entire semester. Sources: Freeman and Hawkins 2016, 2017. a. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/edutech/brief/evoke-an-online-alternate-reality-game-supporting-social-innovation-among-young-people-around- the-world. b. http://www.uniminuto.edu/. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed most clearly that technology will be the primary resilience instrument for the tertiary education sector, and tertiary education insti- tutions (TEIs) will need to operate more strategically as teaching, learning, and Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 39 research embrace and adapt to remote delivery and online settings. To achieve this, tertiary education systems should invest in the development of their local digital infrastructure toward building more agile and flexible systems. This could take place through the strategic allocation of institutional funding to expand and update technological infrastructure for digital pedagogy, investing in learning sci- ence, and training of faculty members. Institutions, staff, and students who are equipped with sound infrastructure, resources, and skills, and who were already engaged in a culture of using technology for teaching and learning, had a much easier transition to remote learning. In this context, tertiary education systems can leverage NRENs — which are special- ized internet service providers dedicated to supporting the needs of the research and education communities within their own country20 — to mitigate the medium-term disruptions that emerge from the pandemic. As Foley (2016) notes: At its most basic an NREN can offer more reliable bandwidth at less cost but it offers much more than that. Through its user iden- tity management systems an NREN is critical for (a) participation in international collaborative research and to connect faculty and students to the global academic community; (b) access to digital resources and databases, costly instrumentation (super computers, telescopes, electron microscopes, and so on), high definition video; and (c) exchange of big data files, and so on. A more advanced NREN can also provide a springboard for innovation in a country, support- ing experiments in networking and new discoveries and services in IT that their members are exploring. 21 Investing in NRENs can provide widespread benefits, but these investments must also look at hard- and software investments, to ensure accessibility of these net- worked resources. • In Africa, strengthening NRENs is a long-term measure to address the issue of connectivity, 22 but this would require that students also have access to devic- es such as a laptop or smartphone to access these networks’ content (box 3.5). African NRENs are relatively weak, particularly in West and Central Africa. Improved connectivity could be achieved through liaising with regional tele- communications companies. • In the South Asia region, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are leveraging their national research networks — the Afghanistan Research and Educational Network (AfgREN), Bangladesh Research and Education 20. GEANT; https://www.geant.org/About/NRENs. 21. Foley 2016, 5. 22. Africa 3 Connect; https://africaconnect3.net/west-and-central-african-nrens/. 40 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Network (BdREN), Pakistan Education and Research Network (PERN), and Lanka Education and Research Network (LEARN), respectively — to share digi- tal resources and to deliver online tertiary education and critical health-related information, and provide a platform for videoconferencing. BOX 3.5  Strengthening NRENs to improve technological resilience for tertiary education in Africa Universities across the continent have already begun collab- to engage more effectively with global colleagues and orating with telecommunications companies to provide free research centers. For connectivity to be truly effective, how- online content and internet access for academic staff and ever, the students and academic staff must have access to a students, to address the mobile access challenges exac- laptop or a tablet or smartphone to be able to access online erbated by the COVID-19 pandemic closures of campuses. content on these networks. Improved connectivity could Strengthening the National Research and Education Net- be achieved through liaising NRENs with regional telecom- works (NRENs) in Africa is a long-term measure to address munications companies (MTN, Orange, Airtel, Vodafone), this issue of connectivity (figure B3.5.1) locally and in order WACREN, UbuntuNet Alliance, and GEANT-Africonnect. FIGURE B3.5.1  Connectivity in Sub-Saharan Africa using NRENs University National Regional/International Regional REN LMS LMS Campus ISP/ NREN LMS Mobile Telco Network Commercial Internet Student Student on campus at home Usual Scenario COVID Scenario Challenges: Challenges: 1. Weak Comapus Networks 1. Is there internet access 2. Weak NRENs (especialy West and Central) some with no natinal coverage nation-wide? infrastucture to connect universities 2. Cost of connectivity 3. Weak regional connections 3. Device to connect and 4. Devices for students on campus to access network and be productive be productive Source: Alex Twinomugisha, World Bank. Note: ISP = Internet Service Provider; LMS = Learning Management System TEIs face significant challenges in their reliance on technology, including issues of stability, equity, and even cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Infrastructure to support intense data usage for remote learning is often inadequate even in wealthy coun- tries. Network penetration in the poorest countries in the world leave upward of 70 percent of their populations without internet connectivity. Adding to this are reg- ular challenges such as unstable electricity grids and the very high cost for mobile connectivity. Taken together, a reliance on technology has already begun to expose Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 41 a series of digital divides across population income groups and nations of differing wealth levels. Students without the means to pay, technology to engage, or facili- ties that optimize their learning potential will continue to fall further behind their more resourced classmates and peers. Digital skills are required to access the benefits (and minimize the negative impacts) of expanded digitalization of tertiary education. According to the OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, PIAAC), 23 15 percent of adults lack basic digital skills, and 13 percent lack basic digi- tal, numeracy, and problem-solving skills. Innovations in the application of technol- ogy in education and industry, like those cited above, necessitate workers’ improv- ing their digital competences, to better do the jobs of today and prepare for the jobs of tomorrow. OECD estimates suggest that 14 percent of jobs (on average) across the OECD are likely to automated in the near future, while 32 percent are expected to undergo substantial changes in terms of the quantity and quality of their tasks. It is imperative that workers retrain and upskill to face these enormous challenges. Tertiary education institutions have an expanding obligation to equip students and staff with these vitally important digital skills, to ensure applied skills development alongside their academic skills. Building individual- and organizational-level digital skills supports efficiencies and promotes innovation and agility across core delivery areas: providing high-quality, adaptive teaching for students using advanced tech- nologies; exploring the opportunities being developed in digital research tools and methods; and establishing digital competences that staff and students require in a digital world. A digitally skilled institution and sector creates competitive advan- tage for their constituents and can thrive in the face of increasing competition from tertiary education sectors worldwide. By investing in the development of digital skills of academic and administrative staff and students to enable this, tertiary edu- cation institutions and systems can reap the benefits of the increasingly digitized knowledge economy. Without investments in digitalization and digital skills, indi- viduals and systems will fall further behind, as has been exposed by the shifts in education delivery forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The learning and research outcome implications of the pandemic closures of class- rooms and laboratories have yet to be measured, but there is no question vulnerable students have been disproportionately and abjectly excluded from remote learning activities due to lack of access to the technology through which their education is being delivered. Without complementary analog delivery modalities — printed mate- rials, for instance — many students just could not access their education. Students must come first, and their realities must be built into any technology planning, to ensure equity and inclusion in how technology is used. Nevertheless, tertiary edu- cation institutions serve as both the incubators and innovation hubs as well as the clients of disruptive technologies. 23. https://www.oecd.org/skills/launch-of-2019-skills-outlook-thriving-in-a-digital-world-paris-may-2019.htm. 42 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Four notable innovations24 illustrate the impact disruptive technology is having on teaching/learning and research in tertiary education: artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, remote delivery, and virtual/augmented reality. • Artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to emerge as a driver of adaptive learning and academic intervention. From supporting online learning platforms that adapt to individual student needs25 to serving as research assistants to individual fac- ulty, artificial intelligence that learns and improves as it supports students and academic staff can profoundly improve efficient and effective teaching, learn- ing, and research. • The idea of the Internet of Things (IoT)26 is that increased connectivity be- tween devices and “everyday things” will continue to lead to better data track- ing and analytics, allowing for improved communication among student, profes- sor, and institution to happen passively and constantly. IoT is making it easier for students to create the learning experience that is best for them, for profes- sors to develop more effective learning modules, and for institutions to use pre- dictive analytics that provide additional insights into how students are doing both in the classroom and on campus, including the ability to respond to early indicators of “at-risk” students. This data-rich environment can help students, faculty, and administrators anticipate and understand what is working and not working in real time, again promoting equity (in terms of progression and suc- cess rates) and efficiency (in terms of improved practices). • Remote delivery and online learning technologies have irreversibly changed how tertiary education institutions operate, educate, and innovate more than any other disruptive technology of the past decade. While Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are not likely to be the change driver they were anticipated to be, online learning has become a major tool for access and efficiency across tertiary education — as tertiary education institutions across the world look to expand their student populations and create accessible and expedient learning tools for an expanded cohort of students — from traditional students to lifelong learners. Those who are unable to access traditional university education rely on these online courses to acquire skills that are relevant to the job market. 27 • Virtual and augmented reality technologies challenge and expand notions of what can be done in and outside the classroom and laboratories on campuses worldwide. With access to virtual and augmented reality, students can immerse themselves in real-life learning situations that are either too dangerous or not 24. Adapted from Goldrick and Goldrick (2017). 25. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/ artificial-intelligence-revolutionise-higher-education#survey-answer. 26. http://er.educause.edu/articles/2016/6/the-internet-of-things-riding-the-wave-in-higher-education. 27. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190814-the-man-who-wants-to-make-university-degrees-obsolete. Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 43 possible to experience otherwise. For example, medical students are now able to practice and learn from performing complex procedures in virtual reality without putting themselves or their virtual patient at risk. History students can now take virtual tours of the ancient cities that they are studying. 28 The virtual and augmented reality technologies are yet to expand to global audiences out- side of gaming and some specific fields (such as medicine), but the possibilities for situational learning from any location seem endless. An example of technology providing a modern adaptation platform for more ef- fective teaching and learning is the expansion of competency-based education. Competency-based education recognizes that “all students enter a program with different skills and proficiencies and that each moves at a different rate.”29 Like online learning, competency-based education serves as a tool for efficient progres- sion through tertiary education and increasing the relevance of tertiary education to the broadest student population possible. Technology allows institutions to bet- ter measure these differences and design adaptive learning programs accordingly. Finally, cybersecurity — including data hacking and spying via videoconferencing, among other covert digital criminal activities — is a challenge every system must address, to locate and resolve vulnerabilities in their systems before cyberattacks can occur. Technology has been perhaps the most important tool for maintain- ing tertiary education operations during the pandemic crisis, but overreliance on these tools without proper investment in cybersecurity may, in fact, make the sys- tems weaker instead of stronger. EQUITY All qualified students should have access to tertiary education irre- spective of financial means, geographic location, or personal char- acteristics such as gender or race. To offset challenges such as tui- tion fees/study-related expenses and support student resilience, financial aid and services programs should be robust enough to enable student access and persistence. The World Bank supports the development of equitable, efficient, and inclusive ter- tiary education systems and dynamic, agile tertiary education institutions. Equity is enabled by establishing a solid foundation in the efficiency basics as described below: goal-oriented steering, effective financing that is increasingly geared toward performance, and purposeful quality assurance. It aims at a strong contribution of tertiary education to equitable growth, inclusive policies and programs, social 28. http://er.educause.edu/articles/2016/3/the-promise-of-virtual-reality-in-higher-education. 29. http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/sites/default/files/Data/Evaluation/files/highereducation.pdf#page=36. 44 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All coherence, and societies with strong democratic foundations as well as the success and advancement of individual students. Equity as equality of opportunity in tertiary education promotes sustainable and impactful economic and social development. Inclusion promotes policies and cul- tures that enable all members to benefit from and contribute to their learning en- vironment and institutions. As knowledge drives economic development and the rewards of ad- BOX 3.6  Afghanistan: Promoting gender equity in tertiary education vanced education become ever greater, attention to equity and access must be a central consider- Decades of conflict severely affected Afghanistan’s tertiary ation for all stakeholders in tertiary education. education system. The impact was particularly stark in terms of Access to and persistence through tertiary educa- women’s participation in the tertiary education system. In 2013, only 3 percent of women were enrolled, and the proportion of tion is a global concern and one that requires sus- female academic staff was less than 1 percent. The government tained commitment to resolve. recognized the critical need to promote gender equity, both within the tertiary education system and in society at large. Exclusion is a multifaceted phenomenon that Accordingly, the World Bank’s Higher Education Development needs to be addressed in multiple ways. Key as- Project (HEDP) was designed with a special focus on this issue. pects of inclusion include the socioeconomic di- With support from the HEDP, the Afghan Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE) has undertaken several innovative measures mension, gender, disability, and ethnicity; howev- to promote female enrollment. To address transportation con- er, there are many more factors, including religion, straints, it provided buses to transport female students and fac- culture, language, sexual orientation, immigra- ulty at all 25 major public universities. The MoHE is also piloting tion status, and age. Exclusion affects the individ- the establishment of childcare and counselling centers at a few ual, resulting in less social participation, lower in- select universities. It is furthermore building new dormitories to accommodate female students as a shortage of residential comes, and personal constraints when it comes to facilities has been a major barrier for girls to join universities the development of individual-level possibilities. outside of their hometowns. A new female student orientation For societies, the consequences include lower lev- program has been rolled out in 10 universities, as has a scholar- els of collected taxes and higher social costs, lower ship program for female students from economically disad- productivity and subsequently lower growth, loss vantaged backgrounds and for those with physical disabilities. Finally, one of the MoHE’s most effective initiatives has been the of talent, reduced social justice, and less social co- reservation of seats for female students in priority disciplines at hesion. Specific to tertiary education are differenc- the national university entrance examination (Kankor). es in access, including likelihood of enrollment, The impact of the measures has been strongly positive. Between type of institution and field, as well as differences 2015 and 2017, female enrollment in priority degree programs in retention and graduation rates and finally dif- increased from 11,400 to 15,000, and first-year female enrollment ferences in labor market success. Inequalities in from 3,000 to approximately 4,500. In addition, the number of tertiary education are the focus of many World women with access to adequate residential facilities on univer- sity campuses has risen from 2,500 in 2014 to 3,400 at present. Bank projects in regions across the globe and in even the most fragile of contexts (box 3.6). There are some key lessons from the case of Afghanistan for other countries experiencing similar challenges to the promo- tion of gender equity. First, the Afghan program was designed Tertiary education inequality must be addressed based on a study of the tertiary education sectora that identified across three key dimensions: access and enroll- the main constraints faced by Afghan women in pursuing ter- ment, retention/persistence, and completion and tiary education. Second, it is important to take a multipronged successful transition to postgraduate engagement approach when seeking to combat the problems. In this respect, the HEDP contained a set of interventions that addressed all (for example, further studies, employment, and the major barriers to women’s participation in tertiary education. entrepreneurial activities). In terms of access, Source: a. Aturupane, Sofizada, and Shojo 2013. the following measures can be considered: out- reach programs to disadvantaged groups; tailored Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 45 financial support; better and more easily accessible information on study possibil- ities and career prospects; advice and guidance on study decisions; fair and equi- table selection and admission procedures; better links between admission and the needs of students and the labor market; and low costs of changing study paths lat- er on strong collaboration among schools, universities and policymakers.30 Issues in the area of retention and promoting an effective learning environment can be addressed through interventions such as remedial interventions for students ad- mitted based on potential but lacking in the preparatory development and skills to succeed in the intensity of postsecondary education, expanded information shar- ing and outreach from the earliest stages of education; accessibility of premises and learning materials; flexibility of provision; bridge programs; adaptation of course design; academic and psychosocial guidance, learning laboratories, and tutoring to support extracurricular academic development; and counselling and targeted financial support. Both vertical (from admission to completion) and horizontal (distribution of stu- dents across the breadth of academic fields) equity considerations must anchor interventions designed to expand opportunities for all who wish to access them and promote the outcomes sought by graduates, particularly with regard to labor market outcomes that can be evaluated and understood via tools such as graduate tracer studies and labor market forecasting efforts. Equity policies must consider not just improvements in the number of enrolled students but must also promote access to every possible field of study, especially those most valued by the job mar- ket, and support all students toward completing their degree programs. Finally, gender equity is a challenge systems and institutions continue to face, and in a broad variety of ways. In some systems, the challenge is providing girls and women avenues to access learning across all academic disciplines. In others, sys- tems are experiencing a gender divide in which working- and lower-class males are no longer accessing tertiary education opportunities, limiting their own social mobility, and creating troubling social dynamics. Further, institutions across the globe need to confront the pervasive challenges of sexual harassment and assault on campuses by developing policies and responses to support their communities.31 Policy interventions known to support expanded equity include both monetary and nonmonetary mechanisms. These include32: 30. See European Commission (2017) and Geven and Herbaut (2019). 31. To give just one example, a 2017 study on sexual harassment covering 39 Australian universities (with more than 30,000 students) revealed that more than a quarter of respondents were sexually harassed during the previous year in a university setting and 1.6 percent were sexually assaulted (https://www.university- worldnews.com/post.php?story=20170808164952202). 32. Lumina Foundation 2019. 46 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Monetary • Fully or partially subsidized education (legal frameworks; constitutional directives) • Targeted free or partially subsidized tuition (system- and/or institution-level policies connecting admission to financial aid) • Needs-based (targeting low-income student groups) scholarships and grants (sys- tem- and/or institution-level policies disbursing financial aid based on the per- sonal income situation of students/families) • Scholarships and grants targeted toward equity groups (system- or institu- tion-level programs strategically directing financial support to students identi- fied as members of underserved/underrepresented groups) • Student loans (public and/or private provision of loans to cover tuition, fees, living expenses of students enrolled in recognized tertiary education programs; repayment policies vary based on loan program type) • Policy levers, such as equity-linked financial incentives built into the national and state higher education institution-level funding formulas (strategic incen- tivizing institutions to implement equity interventions using rewards and, some- times, penalties in the distribution of some portion of public funds in support of systems/institutions). Nonmonetary • Outreach initiatives, including information campaigns, and training of college counselor and community leaders in underserved areas and schools (system- or institution-level interventions to provide vital information on the benefits and opportunities of tertiary education for students/families from as early in the ed- ucation pipeline as possible) • Satellite campuses in remote or disadvantaged communities (through use of ex- isting facilities — primary and secondary schools during evening hours, such as community centers — and/or new construction, to provide simplified access and promote local labor market alignment) • Distance learning (requires commitment to infrastructure development, provi- sion of hardware to students where needed, robust quality assurance mecha- nisms to ensure relevance, and so forth) • Specialized courses and institutions directly related to underserved communi- ties and groups (involving the community and employers in the development of programs and courses to ensure alignment with local needs and to promote desired outcomes) Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 47 • Flexible pathways to allow for re-entry at any point over a lifetime (system- or institution-level policies connecting all institutions in a robust and articulated system that can accommodate the diverse preparation, interests, experiences, and outcome goals for learners through their lifetimes) • Transition and retention programs to provide emotional, academic, and social support to students at the points where dropout is most likely to occur (sys- tem- or institution-level policies that acknowledge the breadth of challenges students, especially those from underrepresented groups, face in persevering through postsecondary education programs and provide sustained supports through degree completion). A 2019 World Bank study33 on effective equity intervention in higher education found that mixed modes of intervention tend to be strongly effective in supporting the most at-risk students in accessing and persisting through degree completion. Outreach policies — when inclusive of both information of academic programs and opportunities and counseling/advising support — are broadly effective in increas- ing access for disadvantaged students, but outreach is less useful when providing only general information on higher education. Likewise, need-based grants do not independently or reliably increase enrollment rates unless such financial support provides funding sufficient to cover fully unmet need and/or includes early engage- ment and support during secondary school. On the other hand, need-based grants lead to improved completion rates of disadvantaged students, requiring institu- tions to play a strong monitoring role of the financial and academic experiences of their students most at-risk for early school leaving. Finally, interventions combin- ing outreach (information and counseling) and financial aid have brought prom- ising results for both expanded admission equity and retention and persistence of disadvantaged students. Effective equity interventions require comprehensive assessments of the root caus- es of local inequities of access and success to determine the most useful course of action. There is no single policy or practice that can solve every equity challenge in every context. A concerted effort to diagnose problems at the local systems and institutional level will lead to a more specific understanding of the range of challeng- es impeding student attainment of tertiary education and determine which inter- ventions have the greatest likelihood of resulting in improved access and success. 33. Herbaut and Geven 2019. 48 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All EFFICIENCY The design and application of purposeful financing mechanisms, quality assurance, and talent management are essential for effective and efficient sector and institutional steering. Efficiency in tertiary education is not merely conscientious spending to maximize outcomes while minimizing costs. Efficiency for tertiary education steering refers to ensuring that resources — fiscal and human — are used thoughtfully and strategi- cally to promote desired outcomes, both public and private. Given the enormously complicated and consuming nature of tertiary education, the diverse resources required to be effective demand systemwide commitments to promoting efficiencies at every level. To have efficient tertiary education systems and institutions, strate- gic directions need to be connected to goal-oriented financing, quality assurance, and human resource or “talent” management. Performance-based financing can play a crucial role in goal-oriented steering Financing models for tertiary education continue to evolve, in terms of more effec- tive processes and steering toward outcomes. This includes, for example, moving from line-item budgeting to block-grants and toward performance-based funding. This process is often related to an overall change in governance: instead of steer- ing via detailed legislation, governments are steering through reformed funding mechanisms, which have autonomous and accountable institutions as a precondi- tion. Performance-based funding not only requires a certain budgetary flexibility, however; above all, it requires clarity of goals at the system and institutional lev- els. Arnhold, Kvisito, Vossensteyn et al. (2018) summarize criteria for good tertiary education funding systems with a view to strategic and incentive orientation, sus- tainability, legitimization, autonomy, and freedom, as well as practical feasibility. Such criteria can also be applied to institution-level funding models34: “In addition to leverage, strategic financing can offer other poten- tial advantages. It can enhance the strategic dialogue between the state and HEIs as well as provide more and better information on policy goals and priorities. It can also clarify for HEIs how they can contribute toward the realization of national policy objectives and signal to them what is and is not working. Transparency can be improved by providing greater and more useful information and indicators. This focus on key indicators can improve the quality, relevance, productivity, and efficiency of the higher education sec- tor by sharpening the focus on key, measurable outcomes. This also 34. See Arnhold, Kvisito, Vossensteyn et al. 2018. Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 49 encourages a greater emphasis on strategic planning and assists in aligning institutional strategic plans with national higher education strategies.”35 The strategic dialogue between the state and institutions benefits from the use of instruments like performance (or target) agreements. Where such instruments are used, significant considerations need to be devoted not only to the tool itself, but also to the related process. Institutions need sufficient time to fulfil the require- ments, the process needs to be clear, and the criteria transparent; and the use of per- formance agreements requires a trustful relationship between the actors involved (box 3.7 and 3.8). 36 BOX 3.7  The Quality Improvement Program in Tunisia: An innovative funding mechanism to improve the employability of graduates In the early 2000s, the tertiary education sector in Tunisia objective to improve the employability of tertiary education was facing two major challenges: (1) an overall decrease in graduates by, among other things, emphasizing “co-con- the quality and relevance of academic programs, and (2) structed programs” where both universities and employers a rigid and centralized budget allocation mechanism that were involved in the design, implementation, and evaluation was not conducive to improved educational outcomes. In of programs. 2006, the Government of Tunisia decided to tackle these Internal and external evaluationsa of the first phase of the issues by introducing an innovative funding mechanism, QIP confirmed that it is an efficient mechanism to foster the Quality Improvement Program (QIP), supported by the changes. Some key outcomes include: World Bank Higher Education Reform Support Project (PARES). The aim was to provide financial incentives for • Instilling a culture of quality and accountability within higher education institutions to improve academic quality, HEIs in Tunisia increase efficiency, and better align their programs with the • Promoting partnerships between HEIs and private sector entities demands of the labor market. • Enhancing the quality of learning and teaching The QIP was a new, flexible, and equitable scheme for and improving practical training, which resulted in HEIs to access additional resources that would help them increased exam passing rates address specific priorities. It combined (1) competitive • Promoting partnerships between and among HEIs • Reinforcing the link between HEIs and their economic grants to improve the quality of programs and teach- environments. ing, and (2) management capacity grants to strengthen management practices. All HEIs are eligible to access The innovative funding mechanism also played a catalyst these grants, based on a clear and transparent process role in leveraging funds and attracting other organizations. of proposal submission, evaluation by peer reviewers, and Through the development of co-constructed programs management approval. A key feature of the funding mech- and certification programs in soft skills, the QIP attracted anism is that it can be adapted to respond to new priorities funding from many other organizations, including the British or rapid policy changes. For instance, the design of the QIP Council, AMIDEAST, and the French Institute for Coopera- was later adjusted to respond to the new government’s tion, and gained attention internationally.b a. Froment and Sursock 2015; Ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Rercherche scientifique 2014. b. World Bank-led event “Fonds compétitifs pour l’enseignement supérieur, quelles perspectives?,” June 2015. 35. World Bank 2016, 8. 36. World Bank 2019b. 50 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All BOX 3.8  Higher education funding reforms in Latvia – Focus on performance Since 2013, the World Bank has supported higher education efforts to design more strategically internal funding alloca- reforms in Latvia via two successive Reimbursable Advisory tion mechanisms, to enhance the efficiency of governance Services (RAS). Country-specific recommendations by the arrangements, and to support academics with their careers. European Commission, which requested the government Three features of World Bank engagement in Latvia of Latvia to evaluate its higher education funding system emerged as instrumental for its success. First, complex and to devise allocation mechanisms that promote sector reforms such as those targeting funding concern all levels performance, constituted the starting point of the engage- of higher education systems. Thus, considering the system ment. After an initial focus on system-level funding, the level, the institutional level, and the level of the individual scope of the engagement was broadened toward a more allows for an alignment of the various parts of higher edu- comprehensive coverage of key levers for strengthening cation systems that increases the effectiveness of reforms. performance orientation throughout the sector. Second, taking up international good practice while at the Under the two RAS, system-level financing, institution- same time accounting for the specific country context is al-level financing, and governance, as well as academic key to arriving at solutions that are both state of the art and careers, were addressed. Based on the World Bank’s effective. Third, intensive exchange with various stake- experience with funding reforms, several sets of recom- holders has proved to be crucial for obtaining the required mendations for the Latvian government and Latvian HEIs knowledge base and for promoting the acceptance of were developed. In response to one of the key recommen- recommendations. In the case of World Bank engagement dations, a performance-based system-level funding model in Latvia, this exchange included not only the government, (figure B3.8.1) was introduced by the Latvian government in system-level governance bodies, and the leadership of 2015. The numerous other recommendations have informed HEIs, but also academics, students, higher education man- policy design at the national level and assisted HEIs in their agers, and trade unions. FIGURE B3.8.1  The Three-Pillar System-Level Higher Education Funding Model in Latvia Basic funding for labor Performance-based funding for the Funding for development market aligment integration of higher education and research and strategic specialization Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Basic Performance-oriented Innovation-oriented funding funding funding Teaching Number of study places (per field) Operational Program “Growth and Development” Cost-oriented weight funding Research Number of research Research sta full time eqivalents Profile-oriented Target sta (per field) (Master and doctoral degrees) Agreements Teaching + Research Cost-oriented weight Industry-funded research + Third Mission International research Funding Of Centers Of Excellence Note: The collected outputs of the two Reimbursable Advisory Services are available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/eu/publication/world-bank- support-to-higher-education-in-latvia. Is there a “right” level of financing? A simple answer to this global question is that the “right” amount of funding is that which enables governments to reach their strategic goals in an efficient manner and that strikes a balance between different missions on the tertiary level like investments in advanced generic and high-level Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 51 technical skills (including in STEM subjects), as well as the balance between teaching and learning on one hand and research and development on the other. The impor- tance of the development of a highly skilled workforce, and innovation capabil- ities that drive the countries’ competitiveness and growth, cannot be overstated. Global investment levels in tertiary education have recently steadily grown, and there has been a global push toward making tertiary education relatively affordable to those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Moreover, enhancing the qual- ity of teaching and learning, and meeting the demands for skilled labor, especially in low-income countries have also been important targets for tertiary education reforms. Equitable access to tertiary education contributes to economic growth and reduction of poverty through meeting the chal- lenges of employability. Currently, only 3 percent FIGURE 3.3  Skilled labor force by income, average for 1992–2012 of the skilled labor force in low-income countries (LICs) has a tertiary degree, however (figure 3.3). LIC While working toward expanding access in an LMIC equitable manner, in LICs as in other countries, UMIC it will be of paramount importance that tertiary education is closely connected to the needs of the non-OECD labor market and society more broadly. OECD 0 5 10 15 20 25 In addition to system- and institution-level financ- Percent ing, numerous studies have focused on cost-shar- ing and student financing. 37 While fees contin- Source: ILO 2016 in World Bank Group. 2017. ue to be an important source of income around Note: The figure refers to tertiary education degree holders as a percentage of the overall the globe, various European countries have pro- population. LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower middle-income country; UMIC = upper middle-income country; non-OECD = high-income non-OECD country; OECD = high-in- moted a decrease in fees or even their elimina- come OECD country. tion. 38 Expert opinions diverge on the moral, political, and economic issues around fees, particularly given the need for signifi- cant investments in quality tertiary education and the considerable private returns. Interestingly, despite decreasing fees in the European setting, countries do not seem to come closer to an “equity optimum.”39 Indeed, fee-free tertiary education has been found to be a form of regressive taxation, where students in higher income quartiles benefit at much greater rates than students from the lowest income quar- tiles. In such instances, the balance of equity and fairness with public policy and programming becomes extremely complex and, often, politically charged.40 The discussion on student fees is currently being revisited in some countries as one of the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic is the need for “balanced” funding systems, that is, funding systems that are not overly dependent on one income source. 37. See, for instance: Barr et al. (2018); Salmi (2003); Teixeira et al. (2008). 38. Estermann and Pruvot 2011. 39. This is well-illustrated by Germany, which has, by and large, abolished tuition fees again (Eurostudent.eu. 2018, 56) but is among the countries covered by Eurostudent, with the highest correlation between tertiary learning and paternal attainment level. 40. Johnstone and Marcucci 2010. 52 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Student fees, however, must be carefully balanced with appropriate grants and loan schemes, in particular, income-contingent loans which link today’s financing needs with future earnings, where the preconditions (like a well-functioning taxa- tion system) are given. Grants and loans should be based on equity considerations (means-testing) and counteract the effects of student fees on access and retention (see box 3.9), which can be combined with merit considerations; however, coun- tries need to consider what they “buy” if they provide students with scholarships who would have studied in the same way, the same subject, and at the same insti- tution anyway. BOX 3.9  The Student Loan Facility at Duoc UC, Chile Duoc is a nonprofit, private Chilean vocational higher edu- The university’s objectives in introducing the loan program cation institution founded in 1968. It has 16 campuses offer- were to increase both enrollment and accessibility of its ing two-year technical degrees and four-year professional program to lower-income students, while the IFC and BCI degrees. In 2015, Duoc UC had approximately 95,000 were motivated to participate given the program’s social students, of whom three-quarters were from the three responsibility objectives and the potential to reach new lowest income quintiles. From 2007 to 2014, Duoc operated customers. a student loan facility in partnership with the International Duoc UC borrowers were typically those who would not Finance Corporation (IFC) and Banco de Crédito e Inver- qualify for commercial loans from banks. Marketing was siones (BCI). Students could take out a maximum loan of jointly conducted by Duoc and BCI during enrollment peri- US$4,500 per year and repay the loan within a period of ods with emails to admitted students and print advertising years commensurate with their study period. on campus. Source: International Finance Corporation 2015. Purposeful quality assurance promotes transparency and relevance Quality assurance (QA) is another essential instrument for promoting efficient ter- tiary education systems. The importance of quality assurance of tertiary education has been rising around the world in response to several key developments. Chief among them is the expansion of higher education, which has put pressure on the public purse and on governments’ capacity to run their country’s higher educa- tion sector effectively. Rapid expansion, particularly among private and online providers, has also exposed the need for more robust QA instruments to address the multitude of low-quality providers, many of which need to be evaluated, accredited, and either improved or closed. In many countries, this has led to granting more autonomy to tertiary institutions in exchange for greater accountability, resulting in the imple- mentation of quality assurance processes, both internal to the institutions and ex- ternal in the form of a QA agency. An important lesson is that countries need con- sistent and coherent regulatory frameworks and they need to ensure the quality of provision of all providers, whether public or private. Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 53 Aside from those national concerns, closer regional cooperation and expanded mobility of goods, services, qualifications/degrees, and people across national borders have proven strongly effective in promoting modernization and quality improvements for the nations involved (for example, the PASET initiative, box 3.10). BOX 3.10  The PASET Regional Benchmarking Initiative — Improving the quality and relevance of programs in Sub- Saharan Africa The Partnership for Skills in Applied Sciences, Engineering and MIS at their respective national QA agencies. and Technology (PASET)a Regional Benchmarking Initiative • Through the initiative, a network of higher education was launched by African governments with support from the QA practitioners from both the HEIs and national QA World Bank in November 2015 to improve the quality and agencies across Sub-Saharan Africa will have a space relevance of programs offered by Sub-Saharan African HEIs. for regular peer-to-peer learning and crowding in The initiative aims at building capacity in HEIs and national financial and technical support. higher education QA agencies in assessing the performance Going beyond the regional context in which it was devel- of HEIs and to help institutional leaders make evidence-based oped, the initiative holds relevant insights for the develop- decisions to improve performance. The first larger-scale ment of higher education in general: benchmarking exercise is currently ongoing, with more than 70 universities participating across 18 African countries. It • Initiatives of this kind need to go back to the basics looks at over 60 indicators, including equity, access, faculty of data quality and promote a culture of proper data profiles, quality of facilities, governance, finance, research, management. technology transfer, and student engagement. • User input and feedback into the methodologies of the tools are critical to ensure that the tools are adaptable The PASET Regional Benchmarking Initiative comprises to the context within which they will be used and to several innovative elements: obtain the right level of buy-in from the potential users. • Following the data analysis, participating HEIs, gov- • There is a need for capacity building and intentional ernments, and the private sector will have access to a knowledge transfer that not only covers participat- display user interface to visualize the results in ways ing institutions and national agencies, but that also that meet their needs. includes a regional organization to implement the • The initiative is seeking to capitalize on existing and technical aspects of the initiative. well-developed open-source digital platforms to • It is important to seek out existing innovative ways enhance scalability and interconnectivity between of using technology to scale up and support more Management Information Systems (MIS) at the HEIs efficient ways of data management. Source: World Bank 2018b. a. The PASET (www.worldbank.org/paset) is an African government-led initiative that serves as a convening platform that focuses on strengthening science and technology capability for the socioeconomic development of Sub-Saharan Africa. This political and economic aspiration finds its translation in tertiary education as well. The European Higher Education Area was launched in 2010. The African Union and ASEAN are working toward the same objective. In these three regions, quality assurance is viewed as an important building block to facilitate cross-border mobility as well as interinstitutional regional cooperation in research and teaching. It is helpful to think about quality assurance by using the following framework: • The institutional level: This has to do with the internal quality assurance pro- cesses that a tertiary institution will have put in place to ensure its quality. This is the most fundamental aspect of the whole framework and the one most like- ly to ensure and improve quality. 54 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All • The national level: This is generally carried out by a quality assurance agency, recognized by the government. • The regional/international level: Where this is politically important (Africa, Association of Southeast Asian Nations [ASEAN] countries, Europe41), the region- al QA framework includes agreement on a set of principles for Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) processes, External Quality Assurance (EQA) processes, and a shared basis for recognizing quality assurance agencies. The three levels are generally interlinked and reinforce one another to ensure that the framework provides a coherent, efficient, and effective approach to quality assurance. The tools for IQA generally include processes (i) to validate, approve, and evaluate study programs; (ii) to recruit, evaluate, promote, and develop academic and admin- istrative staff; and (iii) to ensure the quality of the learning environment and learn- ing support. A good information management system is essential for data mining and analysis. The most mature IQA will also include a process to evaluate the IQA system itself and ensure that it continues to be fit for purpose. The tools for EQA are varied: evaluation / accreditation, of program / institution; institutional audits (which examine the IQA). Their purposes vary, as well. In a nut- shell, most will have a combination of improvement and accountability but will vary the placement of the cursor between the two aspects. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had an impact on quality assurance, with evalu- ation and accreditation procedures being redesigned and adjusted in a virtual con- text. Many QA agencies have pivoted to an online format, which includes training their experts and conducting site visits online. Tertiary education institutions have done the same with their own internal quality assurance processes. Lessons are being drawn from this experience to adapt and strengthen both external and inter- nal QA processes during the post-pandemic period. It is likely that new processes will combine online and face-to-face elements in a different mix than was the case before the pandemic to take fuller advantage of online formats. 41. Quality and relevance of provision have been fostered in Europe within the Framework of the Bologna Process, a pan-European higher education reform process (https://ec.europa.eu/education/policies/higher-edu- cation/bologna-process-and-european-higher-education-area_en). Within the Bologna Process, quality assur- ance has received significant attention on the institutional, state, and regional level. An important regional outcome are the Standards and Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the European Higher Education Area (https://www.enqa.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ESG_2015.pdf). Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 55 Policymakers and institutional leaders need to pay attention to the talent pipeline Governments and institutions must pay closer attention to the quality of postgrad- uate education, to ensure that the Master’s and PhD students of today become the strongest possible professors, lecturers, researchers, entrepreneurs, and leaders of tomorrow. All too often, the talent pipeline in tertiary education is overlooked, with priority going to inputs such as student enrollment numbers or faculty sala- ries. But, fundamental to the successful outcomes of teaching and research invest- ments — and thus to the efficient delivery of tertiary education — is a high-qual- ity, well-trained teacher and researcher. This training of the “trainers” happens in postgraduate education and staff development. Investments in postgraduate educa- tion, though such education may seem something of a luxury in low-income con- texts, are investments in the success of all students. And, if countries do not invest in their local talent, that talent leaves and very often does not return. Graduate schools (postgraduate studies) — and policymakers and institutions more generally — often ignore or underinvest in training doctoral candidates — future academic staff — in modern, effective pedagogical methods for their fields. Across the globe, new academic staff are tasked with the teaching of the foundational courses in TEIs, and yet they have the least training and experience as teachers. Future generations require a new model for teaching in tertiary education, one that focuses on ensuring skills development and knowledge acquisition that is relevant and applicable to the outcome desired by the student. Moreover, as both states and citizens invest heavily in financing tertiary education, they demand outcomes that reflect their investment. TEIs must develop their learning environments to ensure they can live up to these lofty, yet valid, expectation. Strong tertiary educational outcomes require capable staff and institutions that are attractive employers. To ensure this, TEIs need to develop suitable, transparent, and reliable academic career models, conditions that help them attract the right type of staff and consider tenure track models to provide a perspective for their best aca- demics. Important national and regional initiatives (see box 3.11) that seek to build not only the size of the academic staffing pool but also the quality and impact of that academic talent can serve as transformative investment for improved quality today and in the future. Academic staff and students benefit immensely from a strong commitment to embedding internationalization in teaching and research as well as in academic career development. Internationalization, a tool that embeds global interconnec- tivity, integration, and awareness into the holistic tertiary education student and staff experience, is an important factor in building the capacity of countries, insti- tutions, and individuals to harvest the benefits of cross-country cooperation on an equal footing. From mobility programs across borders to promote collabora- tion and cooperation to curricular inclusion of international issues and exam- ples to normalize an international perspective in all academic activities, impactful 56 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All internationalization is an important contributor to 21st Century skills development. Teaching and learning at the tertiary level are often closely tied to research and development, but each contributes separate and important skills and opportunities to tertiary education constituents. TEIs — universities, polytechnics, and colleges alike — are hubs for both knowledge creation and application, and this contribu- tion must be valued and supported alongside teaching. And, while research tends to attract more global attention — in the form of university league tables and the subsequent policy initiatives crafted to improve national showing in the rank- ings — teaching and learning are at the heart of any tertiary education enterprise. Well-taught students, given opportunities to learn and explore and expand their horizons, become the citizens, leaders, and entrepreneurs of tomorrow. BOX 3.11  Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence Projects The World Bank’s Africa Higher Education Centers of at an ACE outside of their home country. In addition, there Excellence (ACE) Projects aim to build capacity of Africa’s is provision for technical assistance to develop partner- HEIs in areas that are important for the region’s develop- ships with the private sector. Under ACEI and ACEII, there ment challenges and economic growth. Through address- are 46 university-based ACEs in 15 participating African ing critical gaps in human capital and innovation in science countries that are involved in cutting-edge research. and technology, the ACEs become regionally acclaimed The third phase of the project, ACE Impact, is now effective research and academic institutions in their respective in West and Central Africa. The goals of ACE Impact are fields. The project embraces the importance of industry/ similar to its predecessors; however, there is a stronger sector partnerships in providing labor market-relevant train- ing and of regional and international academic partnerships focus on development impact, which will be achieved in raising quality through the joint delivery of programs and through deeper engagement and partnership with private sharing of resources. Developing such regionally spe- and public sector stakeholders. In addition, ACE Impact cialized centers of excellence — by regional coordination places increased emphasis on strengthening institutional of national investments — facilitates economies of scale impact by supporting the adoption of global sound prac- through the sharing of high-end expensive technology, tices for university governance and operational policies. laboratories, equipment, and trained faculty. During implementation of the projects and beyond, the Since the launch of the first phase of the project in 2014 in ACEs will build the capacity of HEIs in Africa to create the West and Central Africa (Africa Centers of Excellence for new knowledge that meets the aspirations of the region. In West and Central Africa, ACEI), the ACEs have been able addition to meeting the ACE targets, the projects comple- to provide opportunities for African students to enroll in ment the ongoing national projects on skills and innova- quality, market-relevant postgraduate education programs tion, raise youth employability, and enhance cross-border in priority growth sectors such as health, agriculture, research networks. Through performance-based financing extractive industries, renewable energy, water, railways, linked to quality and relevance and sustainability, univer- information and communications technology, and educa- sities can be at the forefront in addressing development tion. Following the success of the ACEI model, the second challenges within their society. The ACE model — which has phase was launched in Eastern and Southern Africa with a already led to, among other things, crucial research on the more targeted approach toward regional integration. The Ebola virus and the development of a plant-based Malaria Africa Centers of Excellence for Eastern and Southern prevention medicine — can be successfully adapted to Africa (ACEII) project provides competitive scholarships for different national and regional contexts to create programs students to undertake a two-year Master’s degree program for regions beyond Africa. The ACE project also illustrates the enormous potential of regional cooperation in tertiary education. Cross-border higher education allows for joining forces in research as well as teaching and learning, to develop new focal areas that go beyond the scope and possibilities of a single country and that also allows for a division Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 57 of labor through the creation of regional centers of excellence. Resources can be pooled allowing for larger investments and more quality options for gradu- ate training. RESILIENCE Systems and institutions can turn the challenges faced during the pandemic response into opportunities to become more innovative, adaptable, and resilient to future shocks. By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had completely altered the norms of tertiary education delivery across the globe. Universities and other tertiary educa- tion institutions were forced to shutter campuses in 175 countries and communi- ties, and over 220 million postsecondary students — 13 percent of the total number of students affected globally — had their studies ended or significantly disrupted due to COVID-19. TABLE 3.1  Total affected tertiary education students, by region Table 3.1 depicts the state of disruption and the and income level proportion of tertiary education students affected a. Disaggregated by region and as proportion of total disrupted tertiary out of the regional total tertiary student popula- education students tions at the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 Out-of-school Total pandemic. What was seen globally were deep im- Region TE students TE students % pacts in every region and a notably pronounced East Asia and Pacific 72,391,442 73,538,139 98 effect on upper- and lower-middle income coun- Europe and Central Asia 36,948,926 38,030,033 97 tries. The pandemic exposed how vulnerable TEIs Latin America and the and tertiary education systems across the globe Caribbean 27,007,997 27,111,868 100 were to wholesale shocks to their traditional op- Middle East and North erational norms. And, while the capacity to pivot Africa 14,282,666 14,282,666 100 quickly to remote delivery was admirable and, in North America 20,640,820 20,640,820 100 many ways, astonishing, the weaknesses in terms South Asia 40,468,782 40,468,782 100 of equity, financing, and management, to name Sub-Saharan Africa 8,399,127 8,533,188 98 just a few factors, exacerbated by the pandemic’s impacts, must now lead to more conscientious re- Grand Total 220,139,760 222,605,496 99 silience planning for tertiary systems and TEIs. b. Disaggregated by income level and as proportion of total disrupted tertiary education students When the pandemic closures began to spread Income Level Out-of-school Total across the globe, few, if any, tertiary systems, re- % TE students TE students gardless of region or income level, had rapid re- High income 53,479,089 54,103,566 99 sponse plans in place to coordinate such a mas- sive effort as closing entire education systems. The Upper middle income 97,493,490 97,934,594 96 ad-hoc nature of institutional closures continues Lower middle income 65,358,490 66,421,264 98 to plague systems globally, as students, academ- Low income 3,808,691 4,146,072 100 ic staff, and government officials grapple with Grand Total 220,139,760 222,605,496 99 the implications of these closures for their learn- ing, teaching, research, innovation, educational Note: As of April 8, 2020, based on World Bank calculations. 58 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All outcomes, and financial stability. The road from suspension to resumption of op- erations has been long and difficult, and some of the changes that the crisis has brought to tertiary education systems around the world will be permanent. The COVID-19 crisis has shifted the emphasis to sector resilience Global public health experts have referred to the COVID-19 pandemic as the “per- fect storm” of adverse risk factors. In the global context of tertiary education, gov- ernments ordered the closure of tertiary education institutions’ (TEIs’) physical cam- puses for undetermined periods as part of their national policy response to limit the virus’ spread. As a result of these closures, significant implications have emerged regarding the impact on teaching and learning, as well as on student admissions, examinations, and graduation — a perfect storm to be weathered by the global ter- tiary education institutions and systems. University leadership teams were forced to make many decisions, rapidly and with little information, to minimize disruptions during the pandemic, with the goal of resuming “normal” operations. In most countries, the closure of TEIs’ physical campuses prompted the transition toward online delivery to continue teaching and learning, despite wide-ranging variations in preparedness regarding digital systems and infrastructure. This transition cascaded into other decisions, namely the con- tinued use of online platforms for curriculum delivery (for the foreseeable future). In addition to the rapid response required to transition toward online modalities are issues related to coordinating one-off events such as examinations, graduation, and admissions (compared to ongoing teaching and learning). These events are interconnected. For example, in practically all countries, secondary school grad- uates comprise the majority of new university enrollees who, in turn, account for TEIs’ revenue through state funding for places and/or fee-paying students. Delays and/or postponements of decisions regarding selection — both secondary school and university entrance exams — and admission are likely to disrupt the tertiary education pipeline of a country’s human capital. Policies regarding exams, graduation, and admissions in the COVID-19 context merely exposed the fragility of these vitally important benchmarks/assessments in the face of massive disruption. Many countries — such as the Republic of Korea and Bangladesh — postponed university entrance examinations for several months, tem- porarily alleviating pressures on administrators to conduct exams and the urgency for a conclusive result. Others chose to use makeshift adaptations — using teacher assessments instead of standardized exams, for instance — which has injected uncer- tainty and mistrust into once highly respected processes. The World Bank responded quickly by helping countries mitigate learning loss at all levels. In December 2020, the World Bank’s Education Global Practice was work- ing on 87 projects in 62 countries with COVID-19 response components, totaling Section 3    STEERing Tertiary Education Systems 59 US$4.7 billion, covering the entire education cycle from early childhood to tertia- ry education. In 2020/21, new education commitments reached US$5.3 billion, of which US$1.1 billion was related to COVID-19 responses.42 Afghanistan, for example, moved toward a multimodal delivery system for technical and vocational training, supported by the World Bank’s Second Afghanistan Skills Development Project.43 Relatively timely graduation and/or the transition for students to proceed toward their next academic year relies on systems leveraging all available options for ad- ministering assessments, including pass/fail assessments, open-note exams, and ad- justing grade components from exams to research papers. Diverse assessment for- mats have long existed in contemporary university admission processes and are likely to be used in increasing numbers to resolve students’ status for the next year or phase of their lives. The availability of several options means that there are more possibilities for academic staff to support students’ efforts to conclude or continue with the latter’s tertiary education experience. Student transition and graduation policies during the pandemic are also likely to have a direct impact on future ad- mission policies, both for students and for institutions, particularly in the context of TEIs’ financial sustainability. From this pandemic response experience, the focus on reforms for tertiary systems and institutions must include resilience planning at the highest levels. For a social sector system like education, systems resilience can be defined as (1) the capacity of an enterprise to survive, adapt, and grow in the face of turbulent change44; and (2) the capacity of a system to experience shocks while retaining essentially the same function, structure, feedbacks, and, therefore, identity.45 Both definitions are relevant to tertiary education systems, which need not simply “survive, adapt, and grow in the face of change” but, as COVID-19 proved all too clearly, must also know their essential functions and identities (missions and stakeholder communities) in order to sustain those when faced with transformative shocks. Tertiary education systems/institutions must embrace agile frameworks that promote using the shock as an opportunity for reflection, assessment, and evolution in order to maintain commitment to their essential function and identity; that is, there must be adapta- tion without capitulation. As the history of tertiary education has shown, univer- sities and colleges are among the most resilient institutions on the planet, because their value and function remain essential to society. As noted, strategic direction via good governance is crucial to tertiary systems that are agile and effective. Governance is even more important in times of crisis response, providing a resilience mindset into the operational frameworks of the 42. Based on https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/487971608326640355/External-WB-EDU-Response-to- COVID-Dec15FINAL.pdf 43. https://blogs.worldbank.org/education/multi-modal-tvet-delivery-during-covid-19-expanding-access-con- tinued-learning-afghanistan. 44. Fiksel 2006. 45. Kerner and Thomas 2014. 60 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All sector. Table 3.2, adapted from the Resilience Alliance’s46 work on assessing re- silience in socio-ecological systems, depicts a new model of governance that sup- ports agility and adaptability in times of shocks. While few countries had rapid re- sponse plans in place for their education systems, TABLE 3.2  Conventional governance compared to adaptive one opportunity that COVID-19 has offered tertia- governance for systems resilience ry education leaders is the chance to build resil- Conventional Governance Adaptive Governance ience thinking into the sector’s governance frame- works, to anticipate and respond quickly to such Stakeholder participation Collective action and network build- promoted for legitimacy and ing promoted to strengthen capacity critical challenges as experienced in 2020. efficiency of management to deal with unexpected events Social learning to create con- Social learning institutionalized to Adaptive governance offers an immediate, stra- sensus around management understand system dynamics tegic resilience intervention that tertiary educa- initiatives tion leaders and policymakers can take onboard Institutions designed to achieve Institutions designed for adaptation today and in the coming months, as they do the fixed targets to change work of realigning their operations with the new Evaluation is unsystematic and Policy viewed as hypotheses and normal of the post- COVID-19 era. For tertiary ed- applied ad hoc management as experiments from which to learn ucation systems, adaptive governance for embed- ded resilience would need to address significant Strategies to deal with uncer- Strategies to tackle uncertainty/ tainty are absent complexity are a fundamental aim short- and long-term challenges facing tertiary ed- Emphasis on solutions to Emphasis on solutions to reduce ucation systems and institutions as a result of the achieve fixed quality and quan- vulnerability and strengthen capacity shocks brought on by the pandemic, including di- tity targets to respond and adapt minished resources for institutions, personal and Models as a base in manage- Models as collaborative processes academic challenges for institutions and students, ment plans to understand behavior of systems demand for improved infrastructure to support and identify critical thresholds continued distance and blended learning models, Institutional homogeneity pro- Institutional diversity encouraged moted to secure administrative to promote innovation and reduce reduced mobility placing pressures to improve re- equality vulnerability gional and local tertiary institutions, questions of Multilevel governance encour- Multilevel governance promoted sustainability of funding models, and much more. aged for legitimacy and efficien- to secure local knowledge, reduce cy with regard to fixed targets vulnerability, strengthen capacity While traditional governance models generally of- fer prescriptive frameworks for interventions for Source: Adapted from the Resilience Alliance’s training on assessing resilience in so- cio-ecological systems (Resilience Alliance 2010). addressing challenges, adaptive governance builds agility into the response options available to insti- tutions and anchors the sector within systems that are mean to adjust and evolve as and when necessary. More than anything, adaptive governance accepts that change is inevitable and with preparation can lead to stronger and more relevant systems and institutions. Whether it is through quality assurance norms that can pivot quickly to evaluate and legitimize new modes of delivery or through emer- gency preparations for adapting technology, teacher training, community relations, or, even, residential facilities in case of civil unrest, natural disasters, or, indeed, pandemic, adaptive governance inherently embraces leading systems for resilience and relevance regardless of shock. 46. Resilience Alliance 2010. N 4 TI O C SE Moving forward 64 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All The accelerated modernization of the 21st century will realize new levels of autom- atization and mechanization destined to transform not only labor markets but societies more generally. Technology will provide the answer for many of the chal- lenges societies face, but it will also generate new challenges, in particular, with a view to equity and participation. It is thus of paramount importance that tertiary education systems, providers, and actors prepare for inclusive and efficient ways of higher learning that not only help solve innovation issues, but also bring differ- ent strata of society more closely together to ensure poverty reduction and shared prosperity for all. Now and in the future, the World Bank will continue to support the development of agile, equitable, and efficient tertiary education systems and dynamic tertiary education institutions. This development is enabled by goal-oriented steering, effec- tive financing geared toward performance, and purposeful quality assurance. It aims at a strong contribution of tertiary education to equitable growth, social cohe- sion, societies with strong democratic foundations, and the success and advance- ment of individual students. It is against this backdrop and with a view to turn the challenges wrought by the COVID-19 crisis into opportunities to build back better for impactful reforms that this paper encourages tertiary education policymakers and stakeholders to STEER systems and institutions by: Strategically diversified systems — Exploring and investing in opportunities to diversify the tertiary education sector, including technical and vocational institutions, short courses, online provision, and private provision, as well as supporting more traditional re- search universities. — Developing future-oriented strategies that center on a strong contribution of tertiary education not only to growth and competitiveness, but also to social cohesion and human development, more broadly, for the tertiary education sector, subsectors, and institutions. — Positioning tertiary education as a single, integrated ecosystem that supports lifelong learning by promoting flexible pathways, second-chance options, and greater adaptability to the needs and opportunities afforded by employers, civil society, and governments. Technology — Adapting and applying new technologies in a purposeful and equitable man- ner. This means harnessing the power of technology to improve teaching and research capacity while simultaneously acknowledging and countering the impact of expanding digital divides. Section 4    Moving forward 65 — Investing in National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), to pro- vide the structure, resources, and outreach capabilities for technology-driven teaching and research expansion that can benefit all institutions and stake- holders across the entire tertiary education system. Equity — Building equity reform initiatives that include vertical and horizontal equity interventions, to promote access throughout the tertiary education pipeline and across different institution types and all academic fields. — Identifying the equity gaps within the national or regional tertiary education system and targeting those gaps explicitly via policy interventions. — Ensuring innovations that impact students and society are evaluated through an equity lens, to mitigate those impact as proactively as possible. Efficiency — Improving information systems so that sectors, subsectors, and institutions can be managed and enhanced based on evidence and sound information. — Devising and deploying governance, financing, and quality assurance instru- ments toward a goal-oriented, effective use of resources and in such a way that they weather the current and any future crisis. Financing this means, for example, that systems and institutions diversify their funding basis and re- duce dependency on a single income source (such as international students); for quality assurance, this means that remote options for accreditation and evolution are established and applied if the environment requires such way of proceeding. Resilience — Acknowledging the need for resilience planning, by taking stock of the suc- cesses and failures of the COVID-19 response at the systems and institutional levels, analyzing options that would have mitigated the failures, and build- ing agility and preparation into the governance and operational models of the sector. — Promoting the development of system- and institution-level emergency con- tingency plans, to build an institutional ethos around continuing operations and delivering programs as smoothly as possible when faced with disrup- tions of any kind. 66 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All ANNEX 1 The World Bank’s portfolio on tertiary education Since the launch of its first project in tertiary education in 1963, the World Bank has continually evolved its perspective on and commitment to tertiary education as a significant contributor to the global education development agenda. Tertiary education — inclusive of all postsecondary education — is undoubtedly an import- ant part of any complete education system. There is still a broadly held perception, however — inside and out of the Bank — that the Bank supports investments and reforms in tertiary education in middle-income countries only, with low-income and fragile countries not getting attention under the Bank’s tertiary education agenda. Between 2015 and 2021,47 the World Bank financed 63 tertiary education projects with a net commitment of US$3.89 billion. This is 14 percent of the total educa- tion portfolio for that period. It is important to note, however, that commitments in other subsectors such as Adult, Basic, and Con- TABLE A1.1  Education sector portfolio summary, tinuing Education and Workforce Development fiscal years 2015 – 2021 and Vocational Education are also tied to tertiary No. of Net Commitments % of Total Ed education. Including the two subsectors, a total Subsector Projects (million US$) Commitment of 167 projects were financed between 2015 and Education 419 26,963.16 2021 with a total commitment of US$6.65 billion, roughly 25 percent of total education portfolio Adult, Basic, and 19 202.82 0.8% (tables A1.1 and A1.5). Between 2015 and 2021, Continuing Education Early Childhood 32 World Bank tertiary education projects48 were 88 2,713.86 10.1% approved that had a commitment of US$100 mil- Education Other Education 111 2,583.59 9.6% lion or more, with a total International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/Internation- Primary Education 150 6,126.05 22.7% al Development Association (IBRD/IDA) commit- Public Administra- tion — Education 197 3,769.73 14.0% ment of US$6.39 billion (table A1.6). Secondary Education 121 5,119.73 19.0% From a portfolio review conducted by the World Tertiary Education 63 3,885.26 14.4% Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group, between Workforce Develop- 2003 and 2016, there were 49 core and 68 non- ment and Vocational 85 2,562.14 9.5% Education core tertiary education investment projects. These projects can be categorized into themes: (i) Source: World Bank Standard Reports data (as of May 2021). competitiveness and public sector development, Note: As of May 2021. Includes IBRD/IDA, Recipient Executed Activities and Special Financing. (ii) skills and employability, (iii) public sector 47. As of May 2021. 48. As per the portfolio review of tertiary education projects conducted by the World Bank; includes any proj- ect across all global practices that have an explicit tertiary education component. Annex 1    The World Bank’s portfolio on tertiary education 67 development, (iv) knowledge economy, (v) access and equity, (vi) teaching and learning, (vii) improving research, and (viii) higher education systems (table A1.2).49 TABLE A1.2  World Bank higher education projects by region and thematic area Total AFR EAP ECA LAC MENA SAR non-core non-core non-core non-core non-core non-core non-core core core core core core core core No. of investment projects 49 68 12 26 7 9 3 19 12 4 4 2 11 8 Competitiveness and public sector development 4 10 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 1 2 1 Skills and employability 12 11 3 3 1 1 0 2 2 1 3 0 3 4 Public sector development 1 5 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Knowledge economy 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 Access and equity 23 7 6 0 2 0 0 2 7 1 2 0 6 4 Teaching and learning 34 15 9 2 5 3 3 5 7 0 3 0 7 5 Improving research 16 6 5 0 4 1 1 1 3 3 0 0 3 1 Higher education system 26 6 6 1 4 0 1 3 7 1 2 1 6 0 Other 2 30 1 17 1 4 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: World Bank 2017. Note: AFR = Sub-Saharan Africa; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SAR= South Asia. In addition to lending operations, the World Bank also provides support through its Advisory Services and Analytics (ASAs). Between 2015 and 2021, a total of 150 ASAs were approved for tertiary education, which is 15% of all education ASAs (table A1.3). In the Independent Evaluation Group evaluation, 50 a detailed analysis of Bank contributions through ASAs was conducted for 87 ASA products. It noted that the number of ASAs increased notably, from an average of 4.7 per year to 7.5 per year, after the approval of the Education Sector Strategy 2011. Governance of ter- tiary education institutions became a major theme, and teaching and learning were most common for the Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe and Central Asia regions. The Reimbursable Advisory Services (RAS)51 financing tool enables the World Bank to work closely with governments in upper-middle and high-income countries, primarily in the ECA region, on higher education issues through technical advice, analytical services, and capacity building. An example of an RAS activity is Bank 49. World Bank Group 2017. 50. World Bank 2017. 51. The Independent Evaluation Group evaluation was unable to cover RAS due to access issues, especially the confidentiality of some RAS activities. 68 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All collaboration with the government of Latvia to evaluate its higher education financ- ing policies of public education. The RAS recommendations were formally adopted with alignment to national strategies. Currently, 52 the World Bank’s Education Global Practice has 9 active signed RAS legal agreements with a total RAS budget of US$9.89 million. Of these, five activi- ties have a tertiary education component with a total RAS budget of US$5.93 mil- lion (table A1.4). TABLE A1.3  Education sector ASAs by number of activities, fiscal years 2015 – 21 Subsector Total FY 21 FY 20 FY 19 FY 18 FY 17 FY 16 FY 15 Education 998 60 113 119 100 118 235 253 Adult, Basic, and Continuing Education 28 0 1 2 2 3 11 9 Early Childhood Education 142 11 31 25 14 18 21 22 Other Education 414 14 29 28 23 32 132 156 Primary Education 158 8 21 18 13 23 39 36 Public Administration — Education 203 23 26 34 37 31 26 26 Secondary Education 134 6 17 16 8 24 33 30 Tertiary Education 150 5 18 19 13 22 39 34 Workforce Development and Vocational Education 165 10 16 29 12 22 32 44 Source: World Bank Standard Reports data (as of May 2021). TABLE A1.4  Active tertiary education Reimbursable Advisory Services RAS Budget Delivery (total direct cost, Task ID Task Name Region Country Name Lead GP FY million US$) Technical Assistance to Enhance Quality P157508 Assurance in the Higher Education ECA Romania EDU 2021 1.03 System in Romania P171341 Bulgaria: Education Strategy 2030 ECA Bulgaria EDU 2022 0.82 P173441 Adult Skills Assessment in Thailand EAP Thailand EDU 2022 0.39 RAS Russian Education Aid Russian P174532 ECA EDU 2025 3.00 for Development — 3 Federation Higher School of Economics: Research Russian P174831 and Capacity Building in the area ECA EDU 2024 0.69 Federation of Human Capital Development RAS Total 5.93 Source: World Bank Standard Reports data (as of May 2021). Note: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; GP = Global Practice; EAP = East Asia and Pacific. 52. As of May 2021. Annex 1    The World Bank’s portfolio on tertiary education 69 TABLE A1.5  Subsector commitment as percentage of total education sector commitment for lending operations (FY2015–FY2021) and Vocational Education Workforce Development Continuing Education Secondary Education Public Administration Primary Education Tertiary Education Other Education Adult, Basic and Early Childhood — Education Education Education No. of Projects 59 1 13 24 26 39 23 5 9 Subsector Commitment FY 21 2,656.85 4.05 200.24 172.58 446.79 842.04 679.44 90.97 220.73 (million US$) % of Total Ed Commitment 0.20% 7.50% 6.50% 16.80% 31.70% 25.60% 3.40% 8.30% No. of Projects 73 4 21 14 29 43 23 8 15 Subsector Commitment FY 20 5,338.64 113.99 764.67 234.88 1,337.06 1,035.76 830.4 581.04 440.85 (million US$) % of total Ed Commitment 2.10% 14.30% 4.40% 25.00% 19.40% 15.60% 10.90% 8.30% No. of Projects 59 4 11 14 19 28 15 8 14 Subsector Commitment FY 19 3,711.61 13.7 366.71 365.47 565.79 616.87 544.79 782.46 455.82 (million US$) % of Total Ed Commitment 0.40% 9.90% 9.80% 15.20% 16.60% 14.70% 21.10% 12.30% No. of Projects 49 3 15 8 21 28 16 5 8 Subsector Commitment FY 18 4,647.61 24.28 713.37 156.5 1,128.04 724.29 1,212.46 423.32 265.35 (million US$) % of Total Ed Commitment 0.50% 15.30% 3.40% 24.30% 15.60% 26.10% 9.10% 5.70% No. of Projects 54 3 14 10 23 26 16 9 9 Subsector Commitment FY 17 3,096.17 8.74 244.58 163.7 863.81 261.69 471.92 617.23 464.49 (million US$) % of Total Ed Commitment 0.30% 7.90% 5.30% 27.90% 8.50% 15.20% 19.90% 15.00% No. of Projects 56 3 3 20 14 16 13 13 12 Subsector Commitment FY 16 3,250.83 37.78 159.74 708.42 603.27 156.33 579.24 821.06 184.99 (million US$) % of Total Ed Commitment 1.20% 4.90% 21.80% 18.60% 4.80% 17.80% 25.30% 5.70% No. of Projects 69 1 11 21 18 17 15 15 18 Subsector Commitment FY 15 4,261.46 0.28 264.54 782.04 1,181.29 132.74 801.48 569.18 529.92 (million US$) % of Total Ed Commitment 0.00% 6.20% 18.40% 27.70% 3.10% 18.80% 13.40% 12.40% Source: World Bank Standard Reports data (as of May 2019). Note: Includes IBRD/IDA and Recipient Executed Activities and Guarantees. 70 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All TABLE A1.6  List of World Bank tertiary education projects with a commitment of US$100 million or more, approved between FY2015 and FY2021 Project Lead Total Approval Country Global Commitment P-Code Project Name FY Name Region Practice (million US$) Digital Tanzania Program Phase I: Digital Founda- P160766 2020 Tanzania AFR DD 150.4 tions Project Innovation Development and Effectiveness in the P166239 2020 Nigeria AFR EDU 200.0 Acquisition of Skills (IDEAS) Higher Education for Economic Transformation P166415 2020 Tanzania AFR EDU 300.0 Project P166693 Indonesia Skills Development Project 2020 Indonesia EAP SPJ 200.0 P166996 Promoting access to new and better jobs 2020 Ghana AFR SPJ 200.0 P167992 Belarus Higher Education Project 2020 Belarus ECA EDU 109.0 Rwanda Quality Basic Education for Human Capital P168551 2020 Rwanda AFR EDU 200.0 Development Project Higher Education Acceleration and Transformation P168961 2021 Bangladesh SAR EDU 300.0 Project Second Africa Higher Education Centers of Excel- Western P169064 2020 AFR EDU 131.0 lence for Development Impact Africa Secondary Education and Skills Development P170561 2021 Cameroon AFR EDU 125.0 Project P171050 Ukraine Improving Education for Results Program 2020 Ukraine ECA EDU 200.0 East Africa Skills for Transformation and Regional Eastern P163399 2019 AFR EDU 293.0 Integration Project (EASTRIP) Africa Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence for P164546 2019 Africa AFR EDU 143.0 Development Impact Assisting Governance and Access in Higher Educa- P161386 2019 Pakistan SAR EDU 400.0 tion for Quality Enhancement Improving Inclusion in Secondary and Higher P168911 2019 Argentina LAC EDU 341.0 Education P252350 Rwanda Priority Skills for Growth (PSG) 2018 Rwanda AFR EDU 120.0 Odisha Higher Education Program for Excellence P160331 2018 India SAR EDU 119.0 and Equity Additional Financing for Access and Quality in P166177 2018 Colombia LAC EDU 160.0 Higher Education Project — PACES P158435 Skill India Mission Operation 2017 India SAR EDU 250.0 Support for Autonomous Higher Education Project P156849 2017 Vietnam EAP EDU 155.0 (SAHEP) China: Gansu Technical and Vocational Education P154623 2017 China EAP EDU 120.0 and Training Project Access and Quality in Higher Education Pro- P160446 2017 Colombia LAC EDU 160.0 ject — PACES P160309 Mexico Higher Education Project 2017 Mexico LAC EDU 130.0 Eastern and Southern Africa Higher Education Eastern P151847 2016 AFR EDU 148.0 Centers of Excellence Africa Annex 1    The World Bank’s portfolio on tertiary education 71 Project Lead Total Approval Country Global Commitment P-Code Project Name FY Name Region Practice (million US$) Tanzania Education and Skills for Productive Jobs P152810 2016 Tanzania AFR EDU 120.0 Program (ESPJ) P151831 Kenya Youth Employment and Opportunities 2016 Kenya AFR SPJ 150.0 P154523 Technical Education Quality Improvement Project III 2016 India SAR EDU 201.5 Congo, DR CONGO — Quality and Relevance of Secondary P149233 2015 Democratic AFR EDU 200.0 and Tertiary Education Project Republic of P150394 MP Higher Education Quality Improvement Project 2015 India SAR EDU 300.0 P133129 Argentina Youth Employment Support Project 2015 Argentina LAC SPJ 425.0 P148585 Romania Secondary Education Project 2015 Romania ECA EDU 243.1 Mozam- P167054 Improvement of Skills Development in Mozambique 2021 AFR EDU 104.0 bique Note: AFR = Sub-Saharan Africa; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; SAR= South Asia. 72 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All ANNEX 2 Review of World Bank literature on tertiary education This annex examines the evolution of World Bank policies on tertiary education, while exploring the persisting challenges characterized in the field, at both the pol- icy and implementation levels. It then provides recommendations for future tertiary education reform efforts by looking at trends in regions and countries that have successfully implemented the new reforms. Finally, a summary table of the policy options promoted through these works closes this annex (table A2.1). World Bank Policies on Tertiary Education During the initial period of World Bank investment in tertiary education in the 1960s, the focus was mostly on teacher training efforts, building infrastructure for tertiary education institutions, and supporting training initiatives mostly aimed at the alleviation of poverty. In the following decade, tertiary education efforts expanded to also include some pedagogical support, such as skills development, training, and improvement of existing research activities. The portfolio invest- ment in tertiary education initiatives also increased from 17 percent to 38 percent between 1960 and 1980. 53 Due to an increased focus on basic education in the 1980s and early 1990s, however, tertiary education reform fell off the prioritized agenda of the Bank’s education leadership team. During this period, tertiary edu- cation projects often followed a fragmentary reform agenda with a very narrow focus on starting new programs. And, until the early 1990s, there was no formal strategy document underpinning the World Bank’s efforts on tertiary education. Higher Education: The Lessons of Experience (1994)54 With the publication of Higher Education: The Lessons of Experience (1994), the Bank presented for the first time a coherent assessment of the importance of higher education to a fully realized and effective education system. Some recommendations made in the document include recognition of the private sector as an important actor in the provision (through private institutions) and funding, and diversifica- tion of higher education institutes based on mission and markets (including voca- tional colleges, polytechnics, and so forth), provision of financial support to quali- fied students from low socioeconomic backgrounds, decentralization of governance 53. World Bank 2016, 2017. 54. World Bank 1994. Annex 2    Review of World Bank literature on tertiary education 73 to ensure management autonomy for institutions, and increasing access to quality higher education for students from all groups irrespective of gender or socioeco- nomic status. While acknowledging the challenge to developing countries to main- tain the quality of higher education and also catering to the growing number of students, the report suggests maintaining a balance of resource allocation among primary, secondary, and tertiary education, such that the complementarity of rela- tive social rates of return at each level is maintained with the assumption that pub- lic expenditure would remain the same. In the years after this publication, tertiary education regained a focus as a strong area of interest for the Bank. From 2000, the following strategy and policy doc- uments were published by the Bank on tertiary education: Higher Education in Developing Countries: Peril and Promise (2000), Constructing Knowledge Soci- eties: New Challenges for Tertiary Education (2002), Education Sector Strate- gy Update: Achieving education for all, broadening our perspective, maximizing our effectiveness (2005), The Challenge of Establishing World-Class Universities (2009), “The equity imperative in tertiary education: Promoting fairness and effi- ciency,” and more recently “What Matters Most for Tertiary Education Systems: A Framework Paper” (2016). In 2017, the Independent Evaluation Group of the Bank conducted a detailed portfolio review of tertiary education work done by the Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC). Higher Education for De- velopment: An Evaluation of the World Bank Group’s Support, is forward-look- ing and provides recommendations on how the Bank’s higher education support can cater to the 2013 World Bank Group’s twin goals of poverty elimination and promoting shared prosperity. Higher Education in Developing Countries: Peril and Promise (2000)55 The aim of Higher Education: The Lessons of Experience (1994) was to highlight the importance of higher education as an important contributor to socioeconomic development, rather than advocating for a shift from investing in basic/primary/ secondary education to tertiary education. In Higher Education in Developing Countries: Peril and Promise, there is greater stress on the “chronic underfund- ing” of higher education programs in developing countries that are home to almost half of the world’s students of higher education. Much like Lessons, there is a rec- ommendation on inclusion of private funding, but Peril and Promise goes further, to include philanthropic individuals, institutions, and students, through a mixed funding model approach. Other practical recommendations made in the report are effective use of physical and human capital (for example, using digital technologies to connect developing countries for global knowledge exchange), a coherent and rational approach toward improving governance structures that promotes better 55. World Bank and UNESCO 2000. 74 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All management and institutional autonomy in the face of limited resources, and devel- opment of curriculums especially in science and technology as well as general edu- cation. The report takes a balanced approach toward higher education through careful examination of historical and comparative knowledge to provide immedi- ate next steps in anticipation of future challenges. Constructing Knowledge Societies: New Challenges for Tertiary Education (2002)56 Building on the findings of Peril and Promise, Constructing Knowledge Societies: New Challenges for Tertiary Education (2002) focuses on more contemporary challenges of tertiary education, such as meeting the skills demands of technolo- gy-driven global economies. It highlights the role of tertiary education in reduc- ing poverty through economic growth, specifically for low-income countries that do not have institutional or human capacity. With globalization and increased use of technology, those countries unable to respond to digital transformation are left behind in the globally competitive knowledge economy. Constructing Knowledge Societies explores how inclusion in the modern economy can be achieved through the training of a labor force that can adapt to the changing demands of the mar- ket, building capacity to generate new knowledge and access existing knowledge stores, and decreasing inequity through opening better employment opportunities for underprivileged students. The performance of a country’s primary and second- ary education depends on a successful tertiary education system, which provides trained teachers, curriculum designers, school leaders, and educational researchers. Constructing Knowledge Societies is grounded in quantitative and qualitative data collected from developing and transition economies. It makes evidence-based refer- ence to a holistic education system building upon Peril and Promise’s recommen- dation of having a balanced approach to resource allocation. For developing or low-income countries for which investment in education is 4 to 6 percent of GDP, an ideal investment level for tertiary education would be between 15 and 20 percent of education spending. An allocation of more than 20 percent may result in creation of an elitist university system that widens the quality and access gap. Similarly, countries that spend more than 20 percent of their tertiary education budget on student financing are likely underinvesting in physical infrastructure and mainte- nance. Thus, it is important to budget and finance the tertiary education subsec- tor carefully and purposefully. Following a 2002 internal review of World Bank tertiary education efforts, Con- structing Knowledge Societies summarizes the lessons learned from World Bank support to tertiary education up until the 2000s. It reiterates the importance of ho- listic education reform that encompasses all levels of education and interventions 56. World Bank 2002. Annex 2    Review of World Bank literature on tertiary education 75 that target broad reform programs within tertiary education rather than taking a piecemeal approach. While not espousing that all projects should have all-encom- passing objectives, Constructing Knowledge Societies does propose the reforms should be approached in a sequential manner, through engagement with multiple stakeholders, while also giving close attention to the political economy of a coun- try. The report provides directions for future Bank support through taking advan- tage of its status as an international organization in facilitating policy dialogue at the national level that enables use of Bank resources to harness global public goods. Constructing Knowledge Societies acknowledges that the requirements for low-in- come countries are not the same as those of middle-income and other transition economies. Therefore, it provides targeted recommendations for tertiary educa- tion reform in low-income countries, through strengthening primary and second- ary education systems, increasing capacity for continued professional development of teachers and principals, training qualified professionals through a cost-effective combination of different funding resources, and diverting investments to advanced research and training, specifically in fields relevant to advancement of a country’s economy. For low-income countries that are also small states, the report empha- sizes building subregional partnerships with neighboring states to develop a net- work of tertiary education institutes that facilitate the movement of students and cross-recognition of programs. The Bank is currently doing this through the Centers of Excellence projects in Africa that promote cross-country and cross-sectoral part- nerships in science and technology through results-based financing. Education Sector Strategy Update: Achieving education for all, broadening our perspective, maximizing our effectiveness (ESSU) (2005)57 This sector strategy report builds on an earlier one published in 1999, which focused primarily on basic education for all. The 2005 ESSU reiterates the importance of coherent and articulated education systems in promoting knowledge economies and acknowledges the importance of investing in secondary and tertiary education. It emphasizes “integrating education into a countrywide perspective, broadening the strategic agenda through a systemwide approach, and becoming more results-ori- ented.”58 In the context of low-income countries, the report highlights the impor- tance of collaboration with the private sector to meet the demands of higher educa- tion, by providing Bank and IFC support in “mobilizing private resources through improved cost recovery at upper levels of education systems, innovating student loans (processes,… (and providing) subsidies for poor but deserving secondary and tertiary students.”59 Due to its focus on Millennium Development Goals, it 57. World Bank 2005. 58. World Bank 2005, vi. 59. World Bank 2005, 9. 76 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All acknowledges the importance of developing science and technology, especially in low-income countries. In line with Constructing Knowledge Societies: New Challenges for Tertiary Ed- ucation. Directions in Development (2002) and Higher Education in Developing Countries: Peril and Promise (2000), ESSU provides three priority areas for devel- opment of tertiary education in low-income countries: i. Building instruction and management capacity to improve education quality and relevance ii. Producing qualified skilled professionals through cost-efficient public and pri- vate tertiary education institutions iii. Strategically investing in advanced training and research. The Challenge of Establishing World-Class Universities (2009)60 This report goes beyond making recommendations for an overall reform of the tertiary education subsector to laying out the characteristics of a tertiary educa- tion institution, a world-class university, which it attributes to three factors: “(i) a high concentration of talent (faculty and students), (ii) abundant resources to offer a rich learning environment and to conduct advanced research, and (iii) favorable governance features that encourage strategic vision, innovation and flexibility and that enable institutions to make decisions and to manage resources without being encumbered by bureaucracy.”61 To establish such an institution, strong buy-in from the national government is important. Public initiative, support, and funding, along with a favorable policy environment, are needed for its success. There are several directions governments can take to create a flagship institution. They can provide support to existing uni- versities to upgrade or encourage the merger of certain institutions to achieve the status of a world-class university, or they can create one from scratch. Although expensive and difficult to recruit best talent, they have the opportunity to create a culture of excellence and appropriate regulatory frameworks. For low-income countries, establishing a flagship institution can be challenging due inadequate funds to sustain a high-cost institution with a limited number of quali- fied and trained faculty. Due to a lack of such institutions in low-income countries, the talented group of people move to internationally acclaimed universities outside, thus further diminishing the pool of qualified candidates. The report recommends 60. Salmi 2009. 61. Salmi 2009, 7. Annex 2    Review of World Bank literature on tertiary education 77 developing regional institutions to mobilize human and financial resources more cost-effectively. Funding from donors can be diversified to also include long-term maintenance costs and incentives to retain a qualified pool in the country. “What Matters Most for Tertiary Education Systems: A Framework Paper” (2016)62 In a more recent update on tertiary education that is in line with the World Bank’s Education Strategy 2020: Learning for All, a benchmarking tool based on the Sys- tems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) has been developed for tertia- ry education: the Systems Approach for Better Education Results for Tertiary Edu- cation (SABER-TE). The tool helps policymakers make evidence-based decisions on ways to achieve systemwide goals for tertiary education reform, through assessing the readiness of implementation of new policies and the usefulness of already ex- isting ones. “What Matters Most…” gives an overview of the guiding principles of SABER-TE while also taking a deep-dive into the data collection instruments, scoring rubrics, guidelines for data analysis, and methodological approaches to the dissemination of findings. The tool also provides support to national govern- ments in implementing the findings in the regional, national, and local contexts. Based on a tertiary education conceptual framework, SABER-TE follows the “holistic education system” from Peril and Promise and Constructing Knowledge Societies. It acknowledges the intersection of tertiary education with primary and secondary levels, and the need for tertiary education to play a role in strengthening the pre- ceding levels more actively. The conceptual framework includes the most common elements in tertiary education systems. The tool assesses a country’s tertiary edu- cation system based on the standards set against each of the components: vision; regulatory framework; governance; financing; educational quality; equitable access, retention, and successful completion; and relevance of tertiary education to eco- nomic development. The direct involvement of the central government in the tertiary education subsector ensures a strong vision and formulation of goals for performance. Decentralized sys- tems, in contrast, have limited involvement in the subsector, and thus a lack of con- trol over the measurement of performance using standardized indicators. A strong regulatory framework should include laws on the eligibility of institutions offering tertiary education, certification mechanisms for programs offered, and guidelines for both private and public institutions to work in partnerships. The degree of reg- ulation may vary across countries and types of institutions, ranging from detailed guidelines on curriculum and maximum number of students for a program to per- formance-based financing and having quality assurance systems in place. 62. Marmolejo 2016. 78 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All The levels in a governance system vary across countries; therefore, having clearly defined and unique roles for each level is essential to the efficient management of tertiary education institutions in a country. The system should enable the tran- sition of students from one institution to the other through a credit accumula- tion system and cross-recognition of programs. The report recommends having a National Qualification Framework or a similar arrangement to accredit its pro- grams and providing incentives for collaboration between university and non-uni- versity institutions. TABLE A2.1  Key messages from World Bank policy frameworks on tertiary education Publication Key messages Higher Education: The Lessons • Recognition of the private sector as an important component in higher education provision of Experience (1994) and funding • Diversification of higher education institutions • Provision of financial support to qualified students from low socioeconomic background • Decentralization of governance • Increasing access to quality higher education for students from all groups Higher Education in Developing • Mixed funding model through inclusion of philanthropic individuals, institutions, and stu- Countries: Peril and Promise dents (2000) • Use of physical and human capital • Improving governance structures • Development of curriculums especially in science and technology as well as general education Constructing Knowledge • Holistic education reform that encompasses all levels of education Societies: New Challenges • Increasing capacity for continued professional development of teachers and principals for Tertiary Education (2002) • Training qualified professionals through a cost-effective combination of different funding resources • Diverting investments to advanced research and training • Building subregional partnerships with neighboring states, especially for low-income countries Education Sector Strategy • Integrating education into a countrywide perspective Update (2005) • Broadening the strategic agenda through a systemwide approach • Becoming more results-oriented The Challenge of Establishing • Strong buy-in from the national government, public initiative, support, and funding to World-Class Universities (2009) establish a world-class university • Developing regional institutions to mobilize human and financial resources “What Matters Most for Tertiary • “Holistic education system” Education Systems: • Direct involvement of central government in the tertiary education subsector A Framework Paper” (2016) • National Qualification Framework or a similar arrangement for program accreditation • Provision of strong incentives for collaboration between university and non-university institutions 79 ANNEX 3 Tertiary education and human capital Human capital and employment are key determinants of economic growth, togeth- er with total factor productivity and capital investments. Tertiary education not only increases individuals’ and societies’ human capital, but also increases labor productivity and correlates with longer working lives. In addition, it has an import- ant link to innovation and thus also impacts total factor productivity. Technological innovation as well as adaption indeed requires highly skilled individuals. Training graduates for the labor market — and that includes the local and global ones, the existing or future ones, and the ones that are emerging for industries yet to be created by these and future graduates — and employability more broadly — are key aspects of tertiary educational outcomes that are addressed in many World Bank projects. Fears that the labor market cannot absorb an expanded supply of tertiary educa- tion graduates are misplaced. This argument has resurfaced recently, for instance in the MENA region, where graduate unemployment indeed is high. An older me- ta-analysis of papers in Europe and the United States63 found that between, rough- ly, 1980 and 2000, there was no evidence for overeducation, despite a massive shift in graduation rates. More recent evidence, from India, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand,64 shows that while overeducation may be growing in some places, it only affects the unskilled sector. Moreover, these analyses typically raise some conceptual questions about the notion of “overeducation,” as an individual may have benefited in other ways from having a higher level of education, beyond the occupation that they have. Graduate unemployment remains a problem, nonetheless. In Bangladesh, for in- stance, graduates tend to find jobs at marginally lower rates than those with sec- ondary education. It is likely, however, that this has more to do with a mismatch between education and the labor market, particularly in the skills that students learn. Indeed, one of the reasons that returns to tertiary education are increas- ing is that demand for technical and transversal skills is increasing. Indeed, a re- cent analysis using Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Compe- tencies (PIAAC) data found that there are some skills mismatching in several labor 63. Groot and van den Brink 2000. 64. Mehta et al. 2011. 80 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All markets.65 Employer surveys typically highlight the importance of skills like critical thinking, teamwork, and communication skills. Perhaps this means that liberal arts, in combination with a focus on technical skills, may be more relevant than ever. Apart from its economic benefits and service to society, tertiary education pro- vides important opportunities for individuals. The individual benefits of ter- tiary education range from a lower risk of unemployment, to longer and more productive working lives, to higher democratic participation and better health outcomes, and even correlate with a healthier bodyweight. 66 Quality tertiary education increases individual freedom and enables graduates to make positive contributions to society. Building advanced skills can be viewed as a social endowment while also helping individuals advance on a lifelong learning trajectory. In practice, this means that tertiary education graduates also perform strongly when it comes to participation in lifelong learning offers, a phenomenon the OECD described as “the learning ‘rich’ get richer.”67 In contrast, the “learning poor”68 are not able to close a constantly growing gap. While significant funds are foreseen, for example, in EU programs for upskilling, the uptake of these funds by lower-skilled parts of the population is low. The advantage tertiary education students gain and the disadvantage low- er-skilled groups of the population face, tend to be permanent, which makes invest- ments in early phases of life even more important. “The changing workforce will create more jobs in the future, but they’ll likely go to higher skilled workers,” said Hawksworth [PwC’s chief economist in the UK]. Expect a “restructuring of the jobs mar- ket,” he said, noting that employment levels in many major econo- mies are still quite high despite the encroachment of robots in the workplace.… “Creative and critical thinking will be highly valued, … said Jon Andrews, head of technology and investments at PwC. Meanwhile, the authors warn that more robots could mean greater social inequality.”69 While contributions to dynamic economies are at the forefront of many tertiary education projects, they also support broader change in society (box A3.1). 65. Flisi et al. 2017. 66. Research has shown that higher education graduates tend to have a healthier bodyweight (see, for exam- ple, http://ftp.iza.org/dp10491.pdf for Turkey). 67. OECD 2004, 22. 68. Arnhold and Kwiek 2011, 87. 69. Petroff 2017. Annex 3    Tertiary education and human capital 81 BOX A3.1  Tertiary education sector reform and societal change in Vietnam For two decades, Vietnam has shown a strong commitment form of specific indicators that track research programs to tertiary education reform and its partnership with the that are led by female researchers and women’s enrollment World Bank. This comprised two Higher Education Projects in programs accredited via support under SAHEP; schol- during 1998 – 2012, followed by three Higher Education arships earmarked for female and disadvantaged students Development Policy Operations during 2009 – 14. In addition supported under the NMUP; and performance agreements to government investment, total investment support from that require institutions to commit to enrolling target the World Bank reached nearly US$300 million during this numbers of teacher candidates who are of ethnic minority period. The higher education projects have supported soci- background under the ETEP. etal change by promoting the targeting of research funds The most recent World Bank engagement is subsector-wide and financial aid to benefit vulnerable populations that may and responds to a request from the Government of Vietnam otherwise be excluded from tertiary education. to provide technical support to develop a Higher Education In recent years, Vietnam has shifted toward financing Master Plan. This engagement focuses on enhancing gov- specific priority universities. This includes the New Model ernance and relevance of the tertiary education system and University Project (NMUP) and the Support for Autonomous on improving sustainable financing and accountability and Higher Education Project (SAHEP), through which five uni- autonomy. While the dialogue is ongoing, the government versities receive World Bank financing. SAHEP has a strong has also requested an investment operation to pilot reforms commitment from participating universities, since the proposed in the Higher Education Master Plan through financing mechanism involves on-lending directly to institu- three national universities. With the government’s increasing tions. The Enhancing Teacher Effectiveness Project (ETEP) attention to the importance of providing opportunities for all supports eight lead teacher training universities. These potential students to access and complete tertiary educa- engagements show a progression in the government’s tion, the World Bank is committed to ensuring that the next approach to tertiary education investment projects in the round of investment projects continues to have social impact. Expanding the World Bank’s current commitment to supporting investments in human capital to include tertiary education must be a priority action. Demand for technical support in tertiary education has been growing for years, as improve- ments in the education pipeline send greater numbers of students from secondary into postsecondary education. As the conceptual framework on education inter- ventions at the Bank continues to evolve toward a “human capital” orientation, it is imperative that tertiary education be included in this narrative. In the first phase of work on the Human Capital Index (see box A3.2), none of the indicators related to postsecondary education. This does not mean, however, that tertiary education is not relevant to human capital formation. On the contrary, there is no doubt that tertiary education is a hugely impactful contributor to individual and social capital development. The next phases of this human capital work, therefore, must include tertiary education, to ensure attention to the benefits of investments in tertiary edu- cation are part of any human capital conversation. Tertiary education contributes to human and social capital development through higher private returns to the individual, higher social returns to communities, and improved citizen engagement, a s discussed earlier. It will be incumbent on the World Bank and its team of tertiary education specialists to refine and expand the definitions and scope of understanding of what human capital is, to ensure tertiary education is on the agenda of all global education leaders. The future of even the most vulnerable people and economies will depend upon it. 82 STEERing Tertiary Education    Toward Resilient Systems that Deliver for All Whether one is dealing with cognitive matters such as level of fac- tual information about politics or conceptual sophistication in its assessment; or such motivational matters as degree of attention paid to politics and emotional involvement in political affairs; or ques- tions of actual behavior, such as engagement in any of a variety of political activities from party work to voter turnout itself: education is everywhere the universal solvent, and the relationship is always in the same direction. The higher the education, the greater the “good” values of the variable.70 BOX A3.2  The Human Capital Project and Tertiary Education On October 11, 2018, the World Bank Group released its the skills associated with tertiary education at the global inaugural Human Capital Index (HCI)a, an advocacy and level remains high and might be increasing. Similarly, the monitoring tool that quantifies the contribution of health social returns2 to tertiary education have been steady at and education to the productivity of a country’s next gener- 10.6 percent, a sign that tertiary education remains a good ation of workers. The storyline underpinning the HCI asks, investment for both the individual and the government. “How much human capital can a child born today expect With these returns, why is tertiary education not incorpo- to acquire by age 18, given the risks to poor health and rated into the HCI? The existing school indicators in the poor education that prevail in the country where she lives?” HCI combine years of expected schooling with harmonized Since its launch, the HCI has received, on balance, a very learning outcomes for general education, which is why the warm welcome from policymakers, development partners, storyline stops at age 18. This combination of a quantity media, civil society representatives, and others. and quality indicator — known summarily as learning-ad- The HCI, however, is just one of three pillars under the justed years of schooling — is an important acknowledg- broader Human Capital Project.b The other two pillars are ment that being in school is simply not enough. Students Country Engagement, that is, support for countries in their must be learning in order to reap the productivity gains efforts to accelerate formation of human capital; and Meas- prized in the HCI storyline. urement and Research, that is, improvements of measure- For tertiary education, a global dataset for quantity of ment and research to support investments in human capital schooling exists to some extent with enrollment or comple- development. This Measurement and Research compo- tion rates, but no commonly accepted international learning nent is extremely important because the World Bank fully assessment exists, and certainly none with coverage close acknowledges that while everything in the HCI is important, to the 157 countries currently included in the HCI. That is not everything that is important is in the HCI. Any meaning- not to say that this is a new issue or area of concern born ful discussion of human capital must extend beyond the out of the HCI. Several initiatives have been tried, are being current survival, school, and health indicators, but these tried, or could be tried: provide a strong conversation starter. • Around 2010, the Organization for Economic For example — and there are many other examples — the Co-operation and Development (OECD) initiated its current HCI does not include the human capital or cor- Assessment of Higher Education Learning Outcomes responding productivity gains associated with tertiary (AHELO)d as the higher education equivalent of the education. A recent review of the literature on the rate OECD’s Programme for International Student Assess- of economic returns to educationc analyzed more than ment (PISA). The initial AHELO pilot covered over a 1,000 estimates in 139 countries between 1950 and 2014. dozen countries but failed to gain the backing of key A subset of these studies suggests that although tertiary OECD member states to move forward.e The OECD education enrollment has more than tripled since 1970, is now more focused on a benchmarking exercise to the global returns have been surprisingly steady. With an help compare countries. average private return of 12.4 percent,1 the demand for 70. Converse 1972, 324. Annex 3    Tertiary education and human capital 83 • The Educational Testing Service (ETS), the U.S.-based • Where university exit exams are commonplace, these nonprofit organization well-known for its Graduate assessments could be linked to an international assess- Record Examination (GRE), Scholastic Aptitude ment, like the Programme for International Student Test (SAT), and Test of English as a Foreign Lan- Assessment (PISA), to determine how much additional guage (TOEFL) assessments, launched a modular knowledge and skills students acquire during tertiary assessment tool in 2015 to measure student learning education (compared to their cohort’s PISA performance outcomes in higher education. Though its HEIghten® as 15-year-olds). These data could be useful to compare Outcomes Assessment Suitef is primarily marketed in-country institutions or be harmonized for international to institutions, it could be applied to a national sample comparisons. Though it will make more people nervous, if due consideration were given to local context, similar linking questions could be incorporated into translation, sampling, and other relevant factors. A household surveys or graduate tracer studies. global dataset using such a tool would, however, be If the World Bank’s HCI becomes the effective advocacy many, many years away without a strong push from tool it is intended to become and attracts more and global actors. smarter investments in human capital, then it seems only • The OECD’s Programme for the International Assess- logical that a measure reflecting tertiary education be ment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC)g is a large-scale incorporated in a subsequent version. While many of the study to assess and compare cognitive and work- aforementioned initiatives have tried, are trying, or could be place skills among adults. In its three prior rounds, tried to develop a useful and comparable dataset in tertiary adults in more than 30 countries have been surveyed education learning outcomes, international actors — includ- on a broad range of abilities, from basic reading to ing the World Bank — would need to be bold and creative, complex problem-solving skills. Using respondent settling for something imperfect to start with (think how the demographics, this might be another way — though far definition and measurement of poverty has evolved over from perfect — to assess outcomes among those with the past 25 years) if the hope is to provide tertiary educa- tertiary education. tion its due recognition in the HCI within the next five years. Sources: a. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCUIAQkOwKw. b. http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/human-capital. c. http://blogs.worldbank.org/education/strong-link-between-education-and-earnings. d. http://www.oecd.org/education/skills-beyond-school/ahelo-main-study.htm. e. https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2015/06/05/objections-oecds-ahelo. f. https://www.ets.org/heighten. g. http://www.oecd.org/skills/piaac/. Note: 1. Private returns reflect average individual earnings compared with an individual with less education (for example, university graduates compared to high/ secondary school graduates). 2. The social rate of return assesses the full resource expenditure on higher education (for example, money spent on equipment, infrastructure, salaries, and so forth) and the nonmonetary and external social benefits of higher education. Comment: The potential expansion of the HCI remains a matter of discussion. 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