Knowledge Brief Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice BASIC PROFILE OF CHILD MARRIAGE IN EGYPT Chata Malé and Quentin Wodon March 2016 Child Marriage Series with Education Global Practice e KEY MESSAGES:  Measures of child marriage remain substantial in Egypt. The share of women ages 18-22 who married as children is 16.5 percent, but it has declined over time. The share of girls marrying very early, before the age of 15, is much lower and has also declined.  Child marriage is associated with lower wealth, lower education levels, and higher labor force participation. These are however only correlations, not necessarily causal effects. In order to design programs and policies to reduce child Box 1: Brief and Series Primer marriage, information is needed on the trend in the How is child marriage defined? Child marriage is defined as a practice over time, where it is most prevalent in a country, marriage or union taking place before the age of 18. and what the characteristics of girls marrying early are. Why a series on child marriage? Child marriage has Measuring child marriage is needed to inform policy. significant negative impacts – not only for girls, but also for a range of development outcomes. Demonstrating these impacts Child marriage is recognized as a major development will assist governments and others to make the case for intervening to reduce the practice. issue that affects girls in many developing countries. The practice has been linked to a number of health risks, What are the topics discussed in the series? The series higher fertility, and lower education attainment, among looks at the impacts of child marriage on health, population, others. The negative impact of child marriage on a wide education, employment, agency, and violence, among other range of development outcomes explains why in many outcomes. The welfare, budget, and non-monetary costs of child countries child marriage is now prohibited by law, and marriage are estimated. Legal/institutional aspects and options why the elimination of child marriage is part of the new to reduce the practice are also discussed. Sustainable Development Goals. Yet more is needed to eliminate the practice than adopting laws. In order to What is the question asked in this brief? The question is: How widespread is the practice, not only in terms of the share of inform program and policies to reduce the practice, this girls marrying early, but also in terms of how early they marry? brief provides a basic profile of child marriage in Egypt. The brief is part of a series of standardized briefs on this How is the question answered? Measures and a profile of topic for several countries. child marriage inspired by the literature on poverty are provided. Page 1 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  One in six women in Egypt still marry early. but it will also have other negative consequences for her as well as for her children. The analysis is based on data from the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Egypt. This is Most studies on child marriage report the incidence of the latest DHS available. Table 1 provides basic statistics child marriage - the share of girls who marry early (before on the age at first marriage for women. Two samples are 18), sometimes also with the share of girls who marry considered: women ages 18 to 22, which is the youngest very early, before age 15. Such statistics are useful, but age group that can be used to measure child marriage in they do not capture the “depth” and “severity” of the the country1, and women ages 18-49 (the women’s practice very well. Better measures of child marriage can questionnaire in the DHS collects data for women up to be adopted from the poverty literature (Ngyuen and age 49). One in six women ages 18-22 marry below the Wodon (2012). Three measures are used here: the age of 18, and a smaller proportion do so before the age incidence of child marriage or headcount index, the child of 15. There are some differences in the likelihood of marriage gap, and the squared child marriage gap. marrying as children between the two age groups. This Definitions of these measures is provided in the annex. suggests that child marriage has decreased over time. The measures are estimated for child marriage as well as very early marriage defined as marrying before age 15. Table 1: Age at First Marriage for Women (%) 18-22 years 18-49 years The child marriage gap represents the “depth” of child Not married 56.9 17.7 marriage. It takes into account not only the share of girls 18 or Above 26.5 60.5 who marry early, but also the mean number of years of Below 12 0.2 0.5 early marriage. When using the child marriage gap for the 12 0.1 0.7 evaluation of programs or policies, instead of simply 13 0.5 1.3 14 1.1 2.2 looking at the share of the girls who marry early, more 15 2.3 3.7 weight is placed on the girls who marry at a very young 16 4.6 5.9 age. While the child marriage gap takes into account the 17 7.7 7.6 average number of years of early marriage for girls who Total 100.0 100.0 marry early, the squared gap takes into account the Mean age at 1st marriage 17.8 20.1 square of that number, thereby putting even more Source: Authors’ estimation. emphasis on girls who marry very early and taking into account inequality in the age of marriage among girls The consequences of child marriage are not the same marrying early. whether girls marry at 12 or 17. Measures inspired from the poverty literature help in capturing better how early The incidence of child marriage in Egypt in 2014 was girls marry (see the annex). The headcount (H) measures lower than that observed 25 years ago. There has been a the share of girls who marry early. The child marriage gap reduction in how early girls marry. (CMG) measures the “depth” of the practice, taking into account how early girls marry. The squared gap (SG) puts Child marriage has been reduced over time. even more weight on the girls who marry very early. Table 2 provides trends over time in the measures of child Beyond the share of girls who marry early, other marriage inspired by the poverty literature. Consider first measures of child marriage are also important. the age group 18-22. In that age group, one in six girls marry before the age of 18 (16.5 percent for the 18-22 The negative impact of child marriage for a girl’s health, age group). The child marriage gap (CMG) is at 1.8 education, and well-being is often larger when the girl percent and the squared gap (SG) at 0.3 percent for that marries very early. For example, child marriage is known group. By estimating the same measures on older groups, to have a negative impact on school enrollment and the table provides the trend in child marriage over time. attainment. The earlier a girl marries, the more likely it is When considering the 18 years threshold, there has been that she will drop out early and thereby have a low level of a decline in the headcount, at least comparing the education attainment. This will not only limit her youngest and oldest age groups, and also a decline in employment and earnings potential for the rest of her life, other measures, suggesting that girls tend to marry less early when they marry as children. Nevertheless, the incidence of child marriage is still substantial. 1 Child marriage measures must be estimated on the population older than 18, because some younger girls not yet married in the The fact that girls who marry early may marry less early is survey could still get married by age 18. It is best to measure confirmed by the measures based on the 15 years age child marriage as early as possible after the age of 18 to provide threshold which also suggest a decline in the headcount data on conditions as current as possible, which is why the age for those measures. Overall, the share of girls marrying as bracket 18-22 is used here. Page 2 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  children has decreased by fourteen percentage points with men who have similar socio-economic profiles, so the over the last 25 years (the approximate time gap between quintile after marriage may not be that different from the the first and last age group), and the decline for extreme quintile before. Also, for younger women, assets and child marriage (15 years threshold) is eight percentage wealth may be lower than for older women. In Egypt, points2. measures of child marriage differ by quintile. It is only in the top two quintiles of wealth, and especially in the top Table 2: Trend in Child and Very Early Marriage (%) quintile, that child marriage is much less prevalent. 18 years 15 years H CMG SG H CMG SG Table 4: Child Marriage by Quintile, Age 18-22 (%) All 18-49 years 21.9 3.0 0.6 4.7 0.6 0.1 18 years 15 years Age group H CMG SG H CMG SG 18-22 years 16.5 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 All 18-22 years 16.5 1.8 0.3 1.95 0.22 0.0 23-30 years 18.6 2.3 0.4 2.9 0.4 0.1 Wealth quintile 31-40 years 23.6 3.3 0.6 5.1 0.7 0.1 Poorest 19.4 2.3 0.4 3.37 0.39 0.1 41-49 years 30.3 4.8 1.0 9.7 1.2 0.2 Poorer 21.4 2.6 0.4 3.04 0.37 0.1 Source: Authors’ estimation. Middle 24.2 2.5 0.3 1.49 0.15 0.0 Richer 13.8 1.4 0.2 1.64 0.18 0.0 Girls are more likely to marry early if they live in rural Richest 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.32 0.02 0.0 areas and are from poorer socio-economic groups. Source: Authors’ estimation. Child marriage is more prevalent in rural than in urban Child marriage is associated with lower education areas. There are also differences between regions, with attainment and a lower likelihood of literacy. the lowest measures observed in Urban governorates and the highest measures observed (according to the Table 5 provides data on child marriage by level of headcount index for the 18 years threshold) in Upper education of the women, as well as literacy. Child Egypt Rural areas, followed by the Frontier governorates marriage affects education attainment negatively, and Upper Egypt Urban areas. Child marriage is less because girls often drop out of school when they marry. prevalent in Lower Egypt Urban areas. The ranking of the The causality goes the other way as well, as the ability to regions in terms of the measures obtained with the 15 and pursue one’s education may help delay the age at 18 years thresholds tends to be different. marriage. This relationship between education and child marriage is apparent in the data, in that the measures of Rural girls are three times more likely to marry early than child marriage tend to be higher among women with lower urban girls. Girls from the bottom quintiles of wealth are levels of education. The same relationship is observed much more likely to marry than girls from the top quintile. when considering literacy where three categories are considered: the woman cannot read at all, can read part of a sentence, or can read a full sentence. Table 3: Child Marriage by Location, Age 18-22 (%) 18 years 15 years H CMG SG H CMG SG The relationship between child marriage and schooling is All 18-22 years 16.5 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 important for policy as the causality goes both ways. Child Region marriage may lead to dropouts and lower education Urban governorates 4.9 0.6 0.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 attainment. But the reverse is true as well: keeping girls in LE Urban 11.4 1.3 0.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 school is often one of the best ways to delay marriage. LE Rural 16.1 1.7 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 UE Urban 16.7 2.1 0.4 3.7 0.4 0.1 UE Rural 21.7 2.5 0.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 Marrying between the ages of 15 and 17 tends to affect Frontier governorates 17.2 2.0 0.3 2.6 0.3 0.1 primarily secondary education enrollment or completion, Residence and may not necessarily affect the completion of primary Urban 6.7 0.8 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 education. But marrying even earlier can also prevent Rural 21.8 2.4 0.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 girls from completing their primary education (primary Source: Authors’ estimation. school takes in principle six years to complete, but some students start primary school late and may also repeat Household welfare is measured through a wealth index grades, so the actual age of completion may be delayed). with households categorized in five quintiles from poorest to richest. For most women the level of wealth observed is that of the household in which they married, not their household or origin, but it is likely that many women marry 2 These measures have standard errors (not shown to save space). Some differences may not be statistically significant. Page 3 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  Table 5: Child Marriage by Education Level and share of women ages 18-22 who married as children is Literacy Status, Age 18-22 (%) 16.5 percent and it has declined over time. The share of 18 years 15 years girls marrying very early, before the age of 15, has also H CMG SG H CMG SG declined. Other measures of child marriage have declined All 18-22 years 16.5 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 as well over the last 25 years. Child marriage is Education associated with lower wealth, lower education levels, and No education 36.8 5.4 1.1 9.3 1.1 0.2 higher labor force participation. These are however only Primary,some 32.6 4.4 0.9 7.1 1.0 0.2 correlations, not necessarily causal effects. Other briefs in Primary, compl. 28.4 3.2 0.5 3.5 0.2 0.0 this series look at potential causal effects. Secondary, some 25.5 2.7 0.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 Secondary,compl. 14.2 1.3 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 References Higher 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Literacy Cannot read 35.9 5.0 0.9 8.5 0.9 0.1 Foster, J., J. Greer, and E. Thorbecke, 1984, A Class of Limited ability 35.3 5.1 1.1 8.8 1.4 0.4 Decomposable Poverty Measures, Econometrica 52: 761–776. Full sentence 14.0 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 Source: Authors’ estimation. Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon, 2012, Measuring Child Marriage, Economics Bulletin 32(1): 398-411. Relationships between child marriage and labor force Annex: Methodological Note participation can be complex and depend on context. The headcount index, child marriage gap, and squared child Table 6 provides data on labor force participation. In marriage gap are the first three measures of the so-called FGT some countries child marriage may reduce labor force class (Foster et al., 2014). Denote by q the number of girls who participation through higher fertility. In others, if child marry early and by n the number of girls in the overall marriage is associated with poverty, women may leave population. Denote by yi the age of marriage of girl i and by z little choice but to work. Other effects could be at work, so the age threshold defining child marriage (18 years of age, but a that the relationship between child marriage and labor lower age threshold can also be used to measure extreme child force participation is complex. In Egypt, child marriage marriage). The general formula for the FGT class of measures measures are lower for women not working, suggesting a depends on a parameter α which takes a value of zero for the headcount, one for the child marriage gap, and two for the positive association between child marriage and work. squared child marriage gap in the following expression: These basic statistics however do not imply causality.  1 q  z  yi  P    Table 6: Child Marriage by Labor Force Participation n i1  z   Status, Age 18-22 (%) 18 years 15 years H CMG SG H CMG SG This brief was produced as part of the Economic Impacts of Child All 18-22 years 16.5 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 Marriage study, a joint project of the International Center for Research Working on Women (ICRW) and the World Bank, which is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund No 16.4 1.8 0.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 Foundation (CIFF). More details on the research can be found at the Yes 18.8 2.5 0.5 3.3 0.5 0.1 project’s website: www.costsofchildmarriage.org. Partial funding for the Type of work work related to child marriage and education, labor force participation, Not paid 25.2 3.4 0.6 4.9 0.4 0.0 earnings, and program responses has been provided by the Global Cash only 15.4 2.0 0.5 2.6 0.6 0.2 Partnership for Education. Comments from Jeff Edmeades and Cash and in-kind 12.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Margareta Norris Harrit are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions Source: Authors’ estimation. expressed in this brief are those of the authors only and need not reflect the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, of the countries they represent. Conclusion This brief has provided a basic profile of child marriage in Egypt. Measures of child marriage are very high. The The Health, Nutrition and Population Knowledge Briefs of the World Bank are a quick reference on the essentials of specific HNP-related topics summarizing new findings and information. These may highlight an issue and key interventions proven to be effective in improving health, or disseminate new findings and lessons learned from the regions. For more information on this topic, go to: www.worldbank.org/health. Page 4