63309 * TRADE WATCH 1st Quarter 2011 To see the note and data updates visit: http://www.worldbank.org/research/trade/ Author:† Ileana Cristina Neagu (ineagu@worldbank.org) The World Bank DECRG * TRADE WATCH is a quarterly note that follows international trade flows from a global perspective. It contains up- to-date trade data from an array of sources along with an analysis from Ileana Cristina Neagu from the Development Economics Research Group, covering issues such as import and export growth at national, regional and industry levels, exchange rate fluctuations and quantity and price decomposition of trade. The goal of the note is to provide high quality and timely information to World Bank units and stakeholders. The report is supported by funding the governments of Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom through the Multidonor Trust Fund for Trade and Development. † Main author of Trade Watch, Caroline Freund, has recently moved to another World Bank department, following her appointment as the Chief Economist of the Middle East and North Africa region. 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH TRADE UPDATE –ROBUST TRADE GROWTH Exports and imports surged across all regions. Trade declined in countries stricken by economic and/or political crises. Key sectors in Japan’s exports saw declines during March and April following the earthquake and tsunami. Data for the first quarter of 2011 indicate continued export and import growth. Tables 1 and 2 show seasonally adjusted export and import growth, respectively, 1 using 8 years of monthly trade data in constant dollars for 59 countries. Q1 2011 data point to a 7.1 percent increase in exports and a 5.6 percent increase in imports. The same growth pattern is also apparent at regional level for both exports and imports, as shown in Figures 1 and 2. 2 The dark bars represent the most recent quarter’s growth rates, and the lighter bars show the previous quarter’s growth rates. While the majority of countries experienced an increase in export and import growth, a few have lagged behind. As depicted in Figures 3 and 4, these include, on export side, Croatia in ECA, Iceland and Finland in Western Europe, and Chile in LAC. Reduced import growth is observed in Croatia, Kazakhstan and Poland in ECA, Cyprus, Greece, Iceland and Portugal in Western Europe, and, not surprisingly given the recent political turmoil, Egypt in MENA. In March 2011, Japan was confronted with a natural catastrophe compounded by a nuclear accident. Table 3, based on data by sector available until April 2011 from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, shows export growth by broad sector relative to the previous month, but also to the same month of the previous year. Japan’s exports in April 2011 have slowed down by 13% relative to March 2011 and April 2010. Significant growth reductions affected areas such as fish and crustaceans, mineral products, and transportation, a key export sector. Trade in the main Japanese export industry, machinery/electrical, was 6% below the level of April 2010. Trade fell fast and furiously across countries since the onset of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008. Figure 5 compares trade growth (month over same month the previous year) in this crisis and in previous downturns (1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001), using monthly data in constant U.S. dollars for a balanced sample of 40 countries that report data from January 1960 through March 2011. Data are matched so that year zero is the lowest point of the contraction. Growth leading up to the crisis was higher and the fall deeper in this episode than in previous downturns. Of special interest, the recovery also appears to be 1 We converted nominal trade to year’s 2000 constant dollars growth and seasonally adjusted using country-month fixed effects. 2 Africa and the Middle East are not included because there are not enough countries reporting data for credible statistics. 2 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH much steeper in this crisis than in previous episodes. The graph highlights the completion of a V-shaped recovery, with growth returning to normal levels. Furthermore, Figure 6 suggests that trade value is now at or very close to the pre-crisis peak. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, email ineagu@worldbank.org with “Trade Watch” in the subject. For previous notes and more trade statistics visit the Trade Watch webpage at http://www.worldbank.org/research/trade/ 3 Table 1: Quarter-to-Quarter Export Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Argentina 11.0 25.6 26.0 12.5 8.7 9.2 5.0 0.5 25.7 1.1 7.3 6.9 Australia 15.3 10.9 14.5 8.6 9.7 8.7 10.5 6.5 21.0 5.3 7.0 0.4 Belgium 4.6 3.7 21.3 12.4 5.2 12.8 5.7 0.5 0.2 5.6 4.8 8.1 Brazil 11.4 5.3 11.9 20.7 10.6 2.4 7.6 10.4 16.8 1.8 11.5 4.0 Bulgaria 6.8 5.4 26.9 12.4 0.4 13.9 10.9 3.8 7.5 14.6 3.7 16.3 Canada 4.1 0.9 22.2 21.7 3.1 10.4 5.7 6.9 3.9 0.4 6.7 4.2 Chile 13.0 7.1 20.5 10.1 1.5 16.0 9.7 1.7 10.2 20.5 3.7 7.4 China 3.9 6.8 10.5 15.5 3.4 12.4 9.6 5.1 8.5 5.7 4.0 7.6 Colombia 6.0 4.6 16.0 2.4 5.4 3.8 7.3 12.7 0.8 4.8 10.8 27.1 Croatia 5.0 7.3 25.1 3.6 4.5 5.1 3.9 5.7 0.0 4.7 10.7 12.3 Cyprus 9.9 0.7 18.9 23.5 9.4 14.0 2.0 1.6 4.8 24.7 12.5 4.6 Czech Republic 1.2 4.3 25.1 14.5 5.4 17.6 1.2 1.0 0.5 10.4 7.8 7.5 Denmark 4.1 7.9 22.2 7.6 2.5 9.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.8 0.3 9.9 Ecuador 6.0 8.0 34.5 14.6 14.9 13.7 10.4 2.6 0.2 7.1 20.1 6.6 Egypt 27.7 12.1 38.9 6.4 13.6 1.0 3.9 3.8 10.9 1.2 15.0 11.0 Estonia 6.4 3.2 20.5 23.7 9.9 11.7 0.8 2.0 3.0 13.6 17.1 6.8 Finland 7.6 10.5 25.4 20.2 3.9 2.0 12.4 14.0 13.0 4.6 12.6 3.6 France 1.0 1.7 14.8 9.9 4.5 17.4 4.4 2.5 2.0 10.4 4.7 8.7 Germany 4.5 5.3 18.8 14.0 2.7 13.4 4.1 1.2 3.4 6.7 5.8 4.5 Greece 12.0 0.6 15.5 15.3 15.1 2.1 2.7 2.2 7.9 5.8 28.9 0.0 Hong Kong 0.7 0.0 1.0 16.8 12.9 1.8 10.9 3.8 11.7 1.7 0.8 12.0 Hungary 1.1 7.2 22.6 10.3 6.7 12.0 7.5 2.4 0.8 6.4 4.4 9.8 Iceland 49.8 10.4 22.1 30.5 3.6 32.2 16.7 7.3 11.3 11.4 5.4 12.7 India 8.9 5.0 20.7 11.9 3.3 11.3 11.7 2.0 10.6 0.1 19.3 8.6 Indonesia 4.2 2.2 19.3 14.0 13.7 7.2 22.0 7.9 1.3 0.6 21.0 4.0 Ireland 1.2 2.5 9.6 3.0 4.1 4.9 5.6 9.2 3.3 5.4 3.4 5.2 Israel 3.3 2.2 20.8 11.0 10.8 17.6 11.5 3.1 2.8 5.8 3.3 4.9 Italy 0.8 5.5 10.4 10.1 5.4 22.9 14.4 3.6 3.8 14.2 13.7 8.5 Japan 0.8 0.6 13.6 24.7 8.3 16.0 10.4 7.7 6.0 5.5 3.8 2.1 Kazakhstan 2.4 6.9 34.5 41.0 4.9 30.4 5.2 8.2 3.2 8.1 3.8 31.3 Korea, Republic of 9.5 3.4 22.3 12.5 15.8 9.2 2.9 5.0 14.8 1.6 3.9 9.0 Latvia 1.1 0.5 23.5 13.9 0.5 15.4 10.1 5.1 3.1 18.1 5.9 7.1 Average 4.9 0.5 20.7 13.6 4.2 11.8 7.0 2.7 4.6 4.8 7.8 7.1 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH Table 1: Quarter-to-Quarter Export Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Lithuania 11.7 3.2 27.4 18.1 3.5 14.4 7.3 3.1 6.0 8.8 17.5 4.6 Malaysia 6.1 1.8 21.5 15.9 5.0 8.4 15.8 9.0 1.7 1.0 6.5 12.8 Malta 7.8 2.8 13.7 18.2 8.1 21.5 5.9 19.0 5.7 0.7 0.8 29.2 Mexico 2.7 2.3 19.6 13.9 1.2 9.4 12.6 5.7 5.9 3.8 6.1 6.1 Netherlands 2.9 4.5 19.7 13.7 2.0 12.0 3.2 1.8 1.0 5.1 6.1 2.9 New Zealand 5.7 1.4 15.0 13.4 7.5 8.2 7.0 4.7 5.2 0.6 8.9 1.1 Norway 8.2 11.0 25.3 27.5 0.1 12.1 7.5 0.8 7.7 3.1 12.6 0.4 Pakistan 6.1 6.9 5.8 8.5 0.8 8.1 13.8 8.4 2.4 3.1 22.4 20.9 Peru 0.0 7.7 24.0 8.3 7.5 7.1 12.9 6.9 2.8 4.4 7.9 8.9 Poland 4.8 4.6 26.2 8.3 5.5 12.3 5.6 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.9 5.0 Portugal 1.4 2.1 20.5 10.5 8.8 21.2 7.3 1.5 0.7 11.6 6.7 3.6 Romania 8.7 3.0 18.1 15.7 13.7 16.0 10.4 5.3 7.6 7.0 17.4 4.3 Russian Federation 3.5 4.7 29.6 29.3 8.2 17.8 10.8 10.0 3.1 2.2 10.2 18.2 Singapore 2.6 1.5 23.2 13.0 7.5 10.8 7.9 6.6 9.0 3.3 3.6 7.3 Slovakia 3.7 8.3 20.9 14.4 4.1 12.0 9.9 2.4 1.1 5.8 11.6 4.6 Slovenia 2.8 1.4 18.0 12.6 5.6 11.8 9.1 3.8 3.3 8.3 7.2 5.1 South Africa 6.5 7.9 27.7 13.4 5.2 17.2 7.6 2.2 8.3 14.6 8.4 3.0 Spain 3.7 4.3 20.7 10.0 10.4 18.7 5.9 1.4 2.1 12.1 6.8 10.3 Sweden 0.3 7.9 25.7 14.7 4.5 14.7 2.0 3.6 5.4 9.1 7.9 6.5 Switzerland 7.7 2.0 14.8 5.1 2.6 11.5 3.8 5.4 0.6 8.3 6.7 6.4 Taiwan, Province of Chin 4.1 2.7 24.8 15.5 11.8 14.8 7.4 11.2 11.2 1.3 2.7 6.9 Thailand 5.7 0.3 19.0 5.9 1.3 12.6 7.2 8.9 9.6 1.4 6.5 14.7 Turkey 5.3 5.5 29.5 0.3 16.2 13.0 4.9 4.6 3.2 2.1 8.5 12.6 Ukraine 25.5 14.2 34.0 26.1 1.0 15.9 19.8 4.6 15.6 6.6 14.7 9.4 United Kingdom 0.4 2.1 21.3 16.7 1.7 16.6 6.0 2.0 1.7 11.1 5.9 5.1 United States 1.9 2.3 12.9 14.3 1.9 8.7 7.0 3.0 3.8 5.6 4.9 2.2 Viet Nam 8.8 9.8 12.0 4.4 14.1 1.9 14.5 3.2 22.0 4.9 12.9 3.7 Average 4.9 0.5 20.7 13.6 4.2 11.8 7.0 2.7 4.6 4.8 7.8 7.1 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 5 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH Table 2: Quarter-to-Quarter Import Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Argentina 2.3 1.3 19.5 25.0 3.4 8.4 5.2 13.0 14.1 8.8 3.6 6.7 Australia 3.7 0.4 21.2 11.2 0.1 13.5 13.0 0.0 2.7 3.4 5.4 1.9 Belgium 6.4 3.3 22.8 16.2 1.0 12.1 4.0 3.7 1.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 Brazil 4.9 8.4 14.2 25.0 2.8 11.8 9.4 8.9 8.0 7.7 0.0 2.0 Bulgaria 9.4 11.0 24.6 21.0 1.2 2.2 0.8 4.9 6.9 1.1 11.2 2.1 Canada 1.9 2.0 14.6 18.5 2.2 11.5 4.8 2.7 6.4 4.3 0.2 3.5 Chile 3.9 2.0 18.6 27.5 7.5 5.4 14.6 3.9 10.4 7.1 4.5 4.6 China 4.9 3.2 20.9 16.3 22.8 16.2 9.0 12.9 10.4 3.0 11.2 14.3 Colombia 0.7 4.2 5.9 11.8 12.9 8.4 0.0 10.0 1.0 15.3 0.5 16.8 Croatia 0.8 0.4 21.2 13.4 2.9 8.0 2.5 9.4 7.0 12.1 0.0 5.1 Cyprus 0.3 6.0 27.3 9.7 6.1 9.8 1.8 9.3 10.4 0.7 13.8 0.5 Czech Republic 1.1 3.9 21.2 16.8 1.1 17.3 1.0 3.8 1.1 12.1 5.0 8.5 Denmark 2.9 6.6 18.9 12.1 7.2 8.9 1.1 5.0 1.6 3.2 2.7 3.0 Ecuador 11.1 13.6 8.5 19.1 9.9 4.4 7.0 12.0 10.1 5.1 1.3 1.8 Egypt 61.4 10.3 11.1 19.7 4.2 18.3 2.3 0.9 1.3 14.9 5.8 14.7 Estonia 0.8 0.8 20.3 28.7 4.5 15.5 3.2 0.5 1.6 13.0 15.4 13.2 Finland 3.8 6.1 25.9 20.7 3.5 12.4 1.1 5.6 1.7 8.7 4.5 2.6 France 3.4 0.3 17.6 13.2 2.5 10.5 7.2 2.6 0.8 6.9 3.8 9.1 Germany 3.1 1.0 19.2 10.3 3.6 12.2 0.5 3.8 2.6 5.0 4.4 7.2 Greece 10.8 4.5 24.7 18.6 13.1 8.8 1.5 4.5 3.3 1.7 7.6 14.8 Hong Kong 1.1 0.2 1.3 18.9 10.9 5.9 9.7 3.7 11.0 2.0 1.7 6.7 Hungary 0.8 4.3 23.1 16.6 0.2 13.2 7.1 1.4 2.1 9.0 4.8 4.3 Iceland 7.6 6.5 46.0 10.1 17.2 19.7 8.5 0.3 3.2 14.7 0.4 0.2 India 8.7 20.9 25.3 25.9 14.8 6.4 21.5 0.4 0.2 3.2 6.6 16.7 Indonesia 11.4 1.0 16.2 26.3 11.1 17.1 13.4 11.1 5.5 1.7 18.1 6.1 Ireland 2.9 5.7 24.2 6.6 2.9 0.3 4.3 2.5 0.7 2.2 4.2 8.8 Israel 2.2 3.0 24.0 23.0 0.7 13.6 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.0 15.7 8.0 Italy 1.6 3.2 16.0 14.6 0.8 16.8 9.8 5.0 3.2 10.1 8.4 7.2 Japan 3.1 5.3 11.9 25.6 4.7 13.9 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.7 2.6 5.7 Kazakhstan 7.3 9.8 7.4 18.9 8.2 2.5 7.2 9.2 10.0 13.6 2.4 2.7 Korea, Republic of 5.0 8.8 27.9 20.0 0.8 17.0 3.4 7.5 6.6 3.0 3.7 7.6 Latvia 8.4 4.2 24.6 20.1 15.6 10.7 1.2 1.6 4.3 19.2 8.4 6.0 Average 3.6 0.2 20.9 17.4 0.1 12.3 5.2 3.0 2.9 7.4 4.8 5.6 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 6 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH Table 2: Quarter-to-Quarter Import Growth Continued (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Lithuania 2.2 5.3 28.4 23.1 7.6 14.2 1.2 5.2 0.1 13.5 10.6 11.8 Malaysia 2.0 1.1 18.3 21.1 8.8 12.8 14.1 3.0 11.6 2.3 5.4 5.4 Malta 3.6 10.0 35.1 2.6 5.9 24.6 12.8 10.2 9.9 47.7 16.3 5.5 Mexico 0.2 2.7 18.6 16.5 4.3 12.9 3.2 10.1 6.6 4.6 1.2 7.3 Netherlands 3.6 3.6 20.6 14.1 1.5 10.6 4.5 2.1 2.3 0.5 7.7 4.6 New Zealand 4.8 5.0 20.5 21.5 11.3 7.3 2.9 0.1 7.0 1.3 6.1 4.0 Norway 3.8 5.0 21.0 12.9 1.4 13.4 6.4 1.9 5.0 2.7 2.1 20.5 Pakistan 4.3 14.0 12.1 7.5 9.8 2.6 7.7 16.2 1.9 0.8 8.7 6.0 Peru 14.2 2.2 17.1 20.6 6.4 8.0 8.6 12.6 1.4 16.5 0.6 6.4 Poland 2.4 3.0 23.7 18.8 0.0 13.3 3.0 3.4 4.3 5.4 2.5 1.0 Portugal 0.4 0.1 21.3 11.2 2.6 20.5 3.0 4.5 0.1 1.7 10.2 2.8 Romania 4.4 1.1 29.9 22.0 1.8 15.3 3.7 2.0 3.0 1.8 3.7 9.6 Russian Federation 13.7 9.4 15.8 17.5 4.4 11.9 13.4 9.3 19.8 18.3 3.0 14.2 Singapore 4.0 0.4 21.7 16.1 1.9 12.6 5.8 8.2 4.2 3.1 1.3 10.3 Slovakia 4.2 9.0 21.3 11.2 5.1 13.3 6.0 3.9 3.5 12.4 4.3 6.0 Slovenia 3.5 1.4 23.2 17.4 0.4 13.9 1.9 2.1 1.4 6.4 7.2 5.7 South Africa 1.4 12.2 29.5 15.7 12.8 14.6 14.4 0.3 1.8 12.0 3.3 10.7 Spain 3.0 3.2 23.6 16.8 4.2 17.7 2.7 2.7 1.6 4.6 5.7 5.7 Sweden 4.6 10.2 27.8 13.2 1.7 15.1 4.7 6.0 5.8 5.2 3.9 8.6 Switzerland 6.5 2.8 16.8 1.9 0.8 11.6 2.8 4.6 5.0 8.5 4.2 5.4 Taiwan, Province of China 2.0 7.0 31.4 30.1 16.4 22.4 10.8 7.8 6.0 6.2 8.3 0.3 Thailand 3.5 10.9 15.6 32.5 5.6 20.6 12.8 3.5 1.7 9.4 5.4 10.9 Turkey 3.0 4.3 31.5 16.5 1.5 17.1 5.1 8.8 4.6 8.5 15.4 13.9 Ukraine 21.5 8.7 30.4 21.9 1.3 19.5 13.6 0.4 14.8 18.2 14.4 8.3 United Kingdom 1.0 4.5 20.2 15.6 3.4 8.9 5.8 1.1 0.2 7.4 6.3 0.0 United States 1.4 0.9 15.8 19.5 2.7 9.8 5.2 3.5 6.9 3.9 0.4 5.3 Viet Nam 2.8 16.5 14.3 5.9 17.0 10.8 12.9 2.3 2.6 4.9 14.1 7.2 Average 3.6 0.2 20.9 17.4 0.1 12.3 5.2 3.0 2.9 7.4 4.8 5.6 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. 7 Figure 1: Quarterly Export Growth* by Region 25.0 Previous Current 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 NOA EAP LCR EUR ECA SAS Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3rd quarter of 2010 to the 4th quarter of 2010 in “Current” and from the 2nd quarter of 2010 to the 3rd quarter of 2010 in “Previous”; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Figure 2: Quarterly Import Growth* by Region 20.0 Previous 15.0 Current 10.0 5.0 0.0 NOA EUR ECA LCR EAP SAS 5.0 10.0 Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3rd quarter of 2010 to the 4th quarter of 2010 in “Current” and from the 2nd quarter of 2010 to the 3rd quarter of 2010 in “Previous”; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and deflated using U.S. consumer price index. quarter of 2010 to the 3rd quarter of 2010 in “Previous”; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3rd quarter of 2010 to the 4th quarter of 2010 in “Current” and from the 2nd Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. 9 Kazakhstan Norway Malta Colombia Colombia India quarter of 2010 to the 3rd quarter of 2010 in “Previous”; *Seasonally adjusted using time-region fixed effects and Seasonally adjusted growth from the 3rd quarter of 2010 to the 4th quarter of 2010 in “Current” and from the 2nd Pakistan China Russian Federation Russian Federation Bulgaria Turkey Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors’ calculations. Thailand Estonia Malaysia Lithuania Turkey Thailand Hong Kong South Africa Egypt Singapore Spain Romania Denmark France Figure 4: Quarterly Import Growth by Country Figure 3: Quarterly Export Growth by Country Hungary Ireland Ukraine Sweden Korea, Republic of Czech Republic Peru Ukraine 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH France Israel India Korea, Republic of Italy Mexico Belgium Germany China Italy Czech Republic Viet Nam Singapore Argentina Latvia Hong Kong Taiwan, Province of China Peru Argentina Belgium Current Current Estonia Indonesia Ecuador Pakistan Sweden Latvia Switzerland Slovakia Previous Previous Mexico Japan Ireland Slovenia Slovenia Spain United Kingdom Malta Poland Switzerland Israel Malaysia Cyprus United States Lithuania Netherlands Slovakia Chile deflated using U.S. consumer price index. deflated using U.S. consumer price index. Germany Hungary Romania New Zealand Canada Canada Brazil Denmark Indonesia Finland Viet Nam Bulgaria Portugal Brazil South Africa Australia Netherlands Ecuador United States Taiwan, Province of China Japan United Kingdom New Zealand Iceland Norway Cyprus Australia Poland Greece Kazakhstan Finland Portugal Chile Croatia Croatia Egypt Iceland Greece 35 30 25 20 15 10 10 15 20 25 25 20 15 10 10 15 20 25 5 0 5 5 0 5 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH Table 3: Japan’s Export Growth by Industry (Percentage change in Japanese Yen) Month to Month Month to Same Month of Previous Year 2010 2011 2010 2011 Share in 2010 Industry exports Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Animal & Animal Products 0.2% 76 17 30 39 7 22 31 8 6 12 9 1 1 25 of which: Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates (87.18%) 78 17 23 37 10 23 37 8 5 11 8 23 7 27 Vegetable Products 0.1% 6 8 33 12 11 1 10 4 5 2 20 11 5 5 Foodstuffs 0.4% 13 5 32 38 20 7 13 7 12 8 15 20 5 20 Mineral Products 1.9% 22 5 33 3 4 5 43 6 5 33 38 26 27 42 Chemicals & Allied Industries 7.8% 5 2 13 9 7 8 3 4 8 9 2 9 9 10 Plastics / Rubbers 5.8% 0 6 19 23 21 4 1 1 9 13 6 13 1 0 Raw Hides, Skins, Leather & Furs 0.0% 13 11 36 36 17 13 3 7 8 9 12 16 5 26 Wood & Wood Products 0.8% 2 8 11 19 19 5 8 2 1 6 11 2 10 18 Textiles 1.2% 10 6 21 34 26 13 0 1 7 7 10 15 9 10 Footwear / Headgear 0.0% 14 17 48 24 31 17 32 12 11 13 22 22 21 32 Stone / Grass 3.0% 2 13 3 17 10 30 1 4 21 1 5 1 10 13 Metals 9.7% 3 2 11 15 14 13 12 11 17 12 2 12 9 2 Machinery / Electrical 38.6% 0 8 14 24 18 8 8 14 12 16 5 13 0 6 Transportation 24.1% 8 3 10 13 8 9 34 4 3 14 0 3 19 43 of which: Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof (83.33%) 3 3 13 24 23 21 40 9 4 14 2 9 22 51 Miscellaneous 6% 2 9 15 21 15 10 8 7 9 13 2 12 6 0 Total 100% 2 5 13 19 13 5 13 9 9 14 2 10 2 13 Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations. Figure 5: Month-Over-Month Trade Growth, Now and Then 30 20 10 0 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 4 8 10 20 Series1 30 Past Mean 40 Past Median 50 Source: Datastream, I.M.F., U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and author’s calculations. Data in US dollars deflated using U.S. consumer price index for a balanced sample of 39 countries. 10 dollars. 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 2000m7 2000m10 2001m1 2001m4 2001m7 2001m10 2002m1 2002m4 2002m7 2002m10 2003m1 2003m4 2003m7 2003m10 2004m1 2004m4 2004m7 2004m10 2005m1 2005m4 2005m7 2005m10 2006m1 2006m4 2006m7 2006m10 2007m1 2007m4 2007m7 2007m10 2008m1 2008m4 1st QUARTER 2011 TRADE WATCH 2008m7 2008m10 2009m1 2009m4 Figure 6: Natural Logarithm of World Imports 2009m7 2009m10 2010m1 2010m4 2010m7 2010m10 2011m1 using a balanced sample of 61 economies reporting data. Imports are in current US Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations 11