Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Cover photo by Pichugin Dmitry. Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv  isaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Chapter 1: D Reduction Agenda������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 1.1 Disaster Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.2 Economic and Social Impacts of Disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.3 Disaster Induced Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.4 The Drivers of Disaster Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Regional Policies Help Shape Resilient Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Chapter 2:  2.1  International Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2  Regional Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Chapter 3: World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments . . . . . 29 3.1 Technical Assistance and Capacity Building to Mainstream DRM in Development Policies���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������29 3.2 Financing Long-Term Disaster Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.3 Rapid Response to Emergencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.4 Fostering Knowledge and Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3.5 Building Effective Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3.6  Lessons Learned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Chapter 4: Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Country Disaster Risk Management Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 4.1  Operationalizing the Strategic Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4.2  References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 iii Foreword As we write this, Africa is suffering from the In our support to African countries, and in strongest El Niño it has faced in decades, caus- alignment with our twin goals of ending pover- ing major floods and droughts throughout ty and enhancing shared prosperity, the World Africa, leading to rising economic losses and Bank is stepping up its efforts to systemati- major impacts on the lives and livelihoods of cally invest in disaster and climate resilience, millions across the continent. Countries across as highlighted in the Africa Climate Business the continent are declaring states of emergen- Plan launched at COP21 in Paris. To illustrate cy, and are calling on the international commu- this engagement, the plan intends to bring early nity for support. warning systems to 100 million people across Such crises in Africa are becoming the 15 African countries and pilot new urban resil- new norm as the impacts of disasters con- ience approaches. tinue to increase. Natural disasters, such as These ambitious targets cannot be achieved droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and earth- without broad-based partnerships and cooper- quakes are a regular occurrence, and climate ation. The World Bank works with the African change is increasing the frequency and inten- Union and the Regional Economic Commu- sity of weather-related hazards even further. nities, as well as technical agencies to promote The impacts of natural disasters and climate coordinated and comprehensive approaches to change are further compounded by poorly managing common disaster and climate risks. In planned development – as the fastest urbaniz- addition, partnerships with international orga- ing continent in the world, Africa faces a huge nizations, bilateral donors, and major region- challenge as people and assets continue to be al development partners—such as the African placed in harm’s way. Development Bank—are ramping up resil- Forced to face these challenges, African ience activities across the continent. The World countries are emerging as strong leaders in driv- Bank’s Africa Disaster Risk Management pro- ing the resilience agenda forward by reform- gram could not have achieved as much as it has ing their emergency management systems, to date without the strong support of the Glob- establishing new legislation for risk reduction, al Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery modernizing early warning and preparedness (GFDRR), and its donors, particularly the Afri- systems, exploring innovative risk financing can, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States, the solutions, and shaping the global and region- European Union and Japan, who have boosted al policy dialogue. the program’s impact in recent years. iv  Foreword This Strategic Framework 2016–20 clearly in Africa. We thank all partners and institutions articulates the way forward in increasing knowl- who have contributed to the development of the edge, capacity building and advocacy, partner- Framework, and look forward to joining forces ships and investments, as we collectively strive on its implementation. toward disaster and climate resilient development Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Jamal Saghir Senior Director Senior Regional Advisor Global Practice – Social, Africa Vice-Presidency Urban, Rural and Resilience The World Bank Group The World Bank Group v Acknowledgements The Strategic Framework 2016–2020: Striv- This report was prepared by the GSURR ing Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Africa Urban and Disaster Risk Management Sub-Saharan Africa was prepared to increase Team led by Christoph Pusch and included awareness of the importance of disaster risk Alemseged Yohannes Bedane, Alexander Agosti, management as an integral part of sustainable Andre L. Carletto, Asmita Tiwari, Ayaz Parvez, development, showcase the contributions of the Carl Christian Dingel, Chalida Chararnsuk, World Bank, governments, and development Doekle Geert Wielinga, Francis Muraya, Fran- partners in this field, and describe the strategic cis Samson Nkoka, Isabelle Celine Kane, Jayna framework and priority areas as the World Bank Desai, Jean Baptiste Migraine, Koffi Hounkpe, scales up their efforts in disaster risk manage- Laurence Chalude, Luis Corrales, Marc C Neil- ment in the Africa region. son, Marcel Giovanni Prieto Castellanos, Michel The development of the Strategic Frame- Matera, Prashant Singh, Robert Reid and Vero- work benefited from a wide range of stakehold- nique Morin. The team expresses its gratitude to er consultations with i) Country Governments, the guidance and management oversight pro- such as Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Kenya, Sene- vided by Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez, Jamal Saghir, gal, and Uganda; ii) Regional Economic Com- Idrissa Dia and Sameh Naguib Wahba. munities, including Economic Community of The team acknowledges the invaluable con- Central African States (ECCAS), Intergovern- tributions of Barjor Mehta, Benedikt Signer, Carlo mental Authority on Development (IGAD), Del Ninno, Francis Ghesquiere, Greg Toulmin, Jack and Southern African Development Commu- Campbell, Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, Julie Dana, nity (SADC); (iii) international organizations; Luis Tineo, Manuela Chiapparino, Maria Angel- and iv) civil society. This report has been made ica Sotomayor Araujo, Mark Austin, Niels Holm- possible with financial support and technical Nielsen, Philip E. Karp, Qaiser Khan, Raffaello Cer- cooperation of the Global Facility for Disaster vigni, Raja Rehan Arshad, Thomas O’Brien and Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Vica Bogaerts and a broad range of colleagues. vii Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Building Back Better in Dakar, Senegal – Constructing Emergency drainage works in Dalifort area of Dakar following frequent flooding. viii Executive Summary “If you want to go quickly, go alone. If and the Paris Agreement have stressed the role you want to go far, go together.” of DRM in building resilience. This is a good time to take stock of the World Bank’s efforts —African proverb in this area, and set future directions for scal- ing up. This strategic framework presents the Africai is at a turning point. It has made remark- programmatic approach for supporting Africa able strides, with annual growth averaging towards climate and disaster-resilient develop- around 4.5 percent over the last 20 years. For- ment in 2016–2020. eign direct investment has increased seven-fold, life expectancy by six years, and school enroll- DRM IN AFRICA – AN URGENT ment has risen to 74 percent. Infant and mater- DEVELOPMENT AND POVERTY nal mortality rates have decreased by 26 and 22 REDUCTION AGENDA percent respectively in the last decade. These development gains are threatened by climate Over 2,000 natural disasters have affected 460 and disaster risks that impact 10 million people million people, killing over 880,000, since 1970 on average every year in Africa since 1970. El in Africa. Floods are most frequent, accounting Niño is currently affecting east and south Africa, for 42 percent of economic damages. However, where 11 million children are at risk of hunger, droughts account for 78 percent of the affect- water stress and disease.ii Future trends predict ed population. While less common, other haz- that these risks could force 43 million Africans ards such as cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, below the poverty line by 2030.iii volcanoes and epidemics have wide-reach- The region has taken many steps toward ing economic and development consequences. strengthening its resilience to disaster and cli- Resources required for recovery divert planned mate risks. The World Bank has supported gov- development outlays, thereby creating fiscal pres- ernments in disaster risk management (DRM). sures. Disasters also have a macroeconomic cost, In 2015, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk including loss—and slowing growth—of GDP. Reduction, the Sustainable Development Goals Damage and losses caused by natural disasters, i Africa refers to the Africa Region of the World Bank in this document. ii UNICEF. iii World Bank, 2014. ix Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 including slow-onset ones such as droughts, have growing portfolio of investment projects as well caused an erosion of substantial percentages of as advisory services and analytics, supporting GDP, and marked deceleration in GDP growth, long-term disaster resilience, rapid response to in major African economies in recent years.iv emergencies, knowledge sharing and building Disaster losses and people’s exposure to haz- capacities and partnerships. The Bank finances ards are increasing in Africa. This is partly due long-term disaster resilience through targeted to rapid urbanization, poorly planned human DRM investment projects and DRM components settlements often in high-risk areas, unsustain- mainstreamed in operations across social pro- able land use, infrastructure stress, increasing tection, water, agriculture, environment, urban, climate variability and rising population. Envi- transport and other sectors. These investments ronmental degradation, poverty and conflict stand at a total of $5.4 billion (9.5 percent of the further aggravate the risks and reduce the cop- region’s portfolio). ing capacity of communities. While countries are expressing higher demand for ex-ante DRM investments, post- REGIONAL POLICIES HELP SHAPE disaster financial and technical assistance RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT remains important. In the past six years, the Bank has supported post disaster assessments Africa has robust regional policy frameworks for in more than 16 countries in the region, often disaster resilience, inspired by global development leading to investment operations, such as the frameworks, which focus on regional coopera- $80 million Malawi Floods Emergency Recov- tion. The Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster ery Project and the $40 million Mozambique Risk Reduction, Regional Economic Communi- Emergency Resilient Recovery Project (2015). ties’ (RECs) Policies and Plans of Action etc. sup- Technical assistance and capacity build- port DRM at regional and national levels. Sever- ing activities support policy development and al RECs provide data management on weather, institutional strengthening, risk and vulnerabil- climate and early warning service. In addition, ity assessments, early warning systems, and risk the RECs support an enabling environment and financing. On a policy level, DRM is increasing- political advocacy for DRM mainstreaming in ly integrated in country dialogue through the national policies and programs. River basin orga- Systematic Country Diagnostic and the Coun- nizations are increasingly involved in managing try Partnership Framework. Disaster risk and transboundary hazards such as flood. Regional vulnerability assessments inform risk reduction climate centers help strengthen national fore- investments. An increasing number of African casting and early warning capabilities. countries are considering disaster risk financing and insurance options, to build the resilience of WORLD BANK SUPPORT TO MANAGE their governments (e.g. establishing DRM funds DISASTER RISKS IN AFRICA or assessing sovereign insurance options) and vulnerable members of society (e.g. establish- The World Bank supports DRM in Africa through ing public-private partnerships for agricultur- lending and non-lending operations. It has a al insurance). iv World Bank estimates. x Executive Summary The World Bank promotes knowledge, inno- five-pillared DRM framework.vi Building the vation and partnerships. Technology provides resilience of vulnerable populations is a key pov- development solutions. In particular, mobile erty reduction intervention, and the World Bank phones, geospatial mapping and open data can will advance this agenda along three lines of oper- make risk data more accurate, accessible and ations: investments, knowledge and partnerships. usable. Partnerships with regional organiza- tions, United Nations and the European Union Investments: DRM will be further expanded have helped countries access both knowledge and integrated across relevant Bank operations. and funding from global programs and part- These investments will contribute towards the ners, such as the Global Facility for Disaster Bank’s commitment to increase direct funding Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the Afri- for climate work to 28 percent annually by 2020. ca Caribbean Pacific Group of States – Europe- The DRM-related investments will focus on the an Union (ACP– EU) Programs. following priority areas: Several lessons emerge from the Bank’s DRM operations in Africa. Managing disaster risk is Implement the Africa Hydromet Frame- crucial to saving lives, protecting livelihoods and work Program for modernizing National reducing poverty. It is important to understand Meteorological and Hydrological Servic- the underlying risk factors. Technical support es (NMHSs) and enabling climate-resil- and capacity building strengthen country policy ient development, in collaboration with and institutional frameworks. A disaster often the African Development Bank (AfDB) increases political awareness for DRM, leading and the World Meteorological Organiza- to allocation of necessary resources. Early warn- tion (WMO); ing and preparedness are cost effective. Region- Support countries in utilizing disaster risk al integration optimizes the capacity of institu- financing instruments and mechanisms, tions and economies of scale. With growing risk including (i) Catastrophe Deferred Draw- and exposure, there is growing interest in disas- down Options (Cat DDO), (ii) Contingent ter risk financing and insurance. Emergency Response Components (CERC), (iii) access to the Crisis Response Window STRATEGIC PRIORITIES – THE WAY (CRW); and, (iv) adoption of Immediate FORWARD Response Mechanism (IRM); Assist cities in addressing their resilience This framework is based on World Bank’s prior challenges such as rapid urbanization, pov- experience, and guided by consultations with erty reduction, increasing hazard expo- governments and development partners. It sup- sure and environmental degradation. With ports the World Bank’s corporate Twin Goals the high concentration of population and of eliminating extreme poverty and promoting impacts of climate change, coastal cities are shared prosperity, its Strategy for Africav and particularly at risk; v Africa’s Future and the World Bank’s Support to it, World Bank, 2011. The World Bank’s five pillared DRM framework consists of: (1) Risk Identification; (2) Risk Reduction; (3) Preparedness; (4) vi Financial Protection; and (5) Resilient Reconstruction. xi Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Mainstream DRM in investment operations Maintain and improve the Emergency Mon- in key sectors such as agriculture, water itoring and Advisory System to facilitate management, social protection, landscapes, Bank’s internal decision-making. coastal management etc; Continue to support countries in post-disas- Partnerships: The World Bank will continue ter response and investment operations for to build partnerships to facilitate knowledge resilient recovery. exchange, build technical and operational col- laboration, and leverage resource mobilization. Knowledge: In order to improve the management These actions will: of risks, the World Bank will increase technical support and advisory services for the under- Leverage the Africa Working Group for Disas- standing of disaster and climate risks through ter Risk Reduction as the Strategic Partner- the following actions: ship Platform for coordination with African countries and their development partners; Enhance the understanding of disaster Strengthen the DRM policy and institution- risks by developing country risk profiles, al frameworks of the Regional Economic build capacity to undertake risk assess- Commissions in order to advance region- ment, and foster a community of practice al integration, cooperation and informa- for risk assessment; tion exchange; Help countries to develop strategies for Deepen DRM engagement with African risk financing, notably through the ACP- countries from national to local levels to EU Africa Disaster Risk Finance Program; cover all aspects of disaster risk manage- Build governments’ institutional capacity ment from risk information to risk financing; and support policy development for resil- Expand knowledge exchange and techni- ience to disaster and climate risks, focusing cal cooperation with development partners, on vulnerable communities; using GFDRR as the partnership mecha- Develop Multi-sectoral Investment Plans nism to further the DRM resilience agenda for Climate and Disaster Risk Management in Africa, particularly leveraging the ACP- for 15 additional African countries within EU programs, and the Japan – World Bank the IDA17 period; Program for mainstreaming DRM. Promote regional cooperation and peer learning by strengthening the Regional Eco- The World Bank is committed to scale up nomic Communities, particularly IGAD, investments, knowledge and partnerships. This ECOWAS, ECCAS and SADC; Strategic Framework leverages decades of devel- Support countries in post-disaster situa- opment experience of the Bank, builds on the tions through damage and needs assess- success of existing initiatives, and supports gov- ments, recovery planning, donor coordi- ernments and communities in shaping a sustain- nation and resource mobilization; able and resilient future for Africa. xii Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Acronyms ACP Africa, Caribbean, Pacific ACMAD African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development AfDB African Development Bank ADRF Africa Disaster Risk Finance initiative AUC African Union Commission AWG African Working Group CCA Climate Change Adaptation CPS Country Partnership Strategy CSO Civil Society Organization DaLA Damages and Loss Assessment DPL Development Policy Lending DPO Development Policy Operation DRFI Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EMAS Emergency Monitoring and Advisory System EU European Union GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery HFA Hyogo Framework for Action ICPAC Inter-Governmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre IDA International Development Association IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on Development IOC Indian Ocean Commission IOI Indian Ocean Island JDLNA Joint Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment NEPAD New Partnership for African Development xiv Executive Summary NGO Non-governmental organization NMHSs National Meteorological and Hydrological Services ODI Overseas Development Institute PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PoA Programme of Action PCRAFI Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative PSNP Productive Safety Nets Project REC Regional Economic Communities SADC Southern Africa Development Community SADC DMC Southern Africa Development Community Drought Monitoring Centre SIDS Small Island Developing States TA Technical assistance WFP World Food Programme UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UN OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UR Understanding Risk WMO World Meteorological Organization xv A man works to rebuild his home in Madagascar after weathering the effects of Cyclone Felleng. Chapter 1 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda Disasters cause severe impacts on social and affect millions of people across the Horn of Afri- economic development in many African coun- ca, Sahel and southern Africa. The catastrophic tries—and the poorest suffer the most. Between 2011–2012 drought in the Horn of Africa affected 1970 and 2014, natural disasters have affect- over 13 million people. Frequent floods disrupt ed more than 460 million people and result- the lives and livelihoods of populations across ed in more than 880,000 casualties across the many economic centers and countries and affect region.1 Droughts are a perennial problem and the poor most severely.2 Beyond the immediate Number of reported disasters and number of people affected by disaster type in Figure 1.  Sub-Saharan Africa 40 140 35 120 30 Total No. Disaster Events per Year 100 People Affected (millions) 25 80 20 60 15 40 10 5 20 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Drought Flood Storms Earthquake Volcano No of events Source: EM-DAT, 2015. 1 Unless otherwise stated, all disaster data has been obtained from the Emergency Events Database (EMDAT), of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Universite Catholique Louvain, Belgium. 2 Douglas et al., 2008. 1 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 impacts, disaster-induced damage and losses total economic impact is severely underestimat- have the potential to significantly reduce devel- ed as disaster losses and secondary impacts are opment gains in the region, and can have long typically not included. Additionally, frequent, lasting impacts ranging from years to decades. lower-intensity events that can have significant Damage to assets generates term economic losses, local and aggregate impacts are often neglected. diverts limited financial resources from the devel- Since 1970, Africa has experienced more opment agenda and increases fiscal pressures. than 2,000 natural disasters, with just under If not adequately managed, disaster shocks can half taking place in the last decade. Increas- further marginalize the poor and vulnerable by ing disaster risk has largely been a result of the diminishing their productive assets and sources increased number of people and economic of income generation, thus leading them further assets exposed to hazards, as well as the inabil- into poverty traps.3 Therefore, disaster risk man- ity of vulnerable groups to cope with disasters. agement (DRM) needs to become a key pover- Climate change is also projected to increase the ty reduction intervention, focused on protecting frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological and improving lives and livelihoods. and climatological hazards, further increasing The most common disasters in Africa are disaster risk. Although the impacts of such disas- hydro-meteorological or climatological, and ter events are severe and growing, the majori- consist of floods, droughts, and cyclones and ty of the countries and communities at risk are storms. Since 1970, Africa has witnessed more not taking the necessary measures to reduce the than 750 flood events, of which approximate- risk they face, nor are they adequately prepared ly 415 (or 55 percent) have taken place in the to respond when hazards strike. last decade alone.4 Droughts affect the highest In African cities, the nexus of rapid and number of people in the region, accounting for often unplanned growth, lack of basic infra- 78 and 79 percent of the total disaster affect- structure and services, environmental degra- ed population and casualties, respectively. The dation, and weak and fragmented urban gov- average annual population affected by drought ernance structures is creating a host of urban is just over eight million. In terms of estimat- disaster risk hotspots. Urban areas typically have ed damages, however, floods are responsible for the highest economic losses due to the high den- the most damage costs (42 percent), followed sity of economic assets.5 In Africa, many econ- by cyclones and storms (33 percent), and then omies revolve around one major urban center. droughts (17 percent). While a lesser concern, While urban areas are affected by several hazard geological hazards such as earthquakes and vol- types, flooding is the most damaging for African canoes, and other hydro-meteorological and cli- cities. From 1997 to 2008, it was found that floods matological hazards such as landslides, wildfire, were responsible for the overwhelming majori- and extreme temperatures are also present. It ty of monetary disaster damages and account- should be noted that while the data above pro- ed for one-third of the total of 3.3 million peo- vides best estimates from international datasets, ple affected by disasters in African cities.6 Africa 3 (Carter, Little, Mogues, & Negatu, 2007; Gaillard & Cadag, 2012). 4 Guha-Sapir,, & Hoyois, 2015. 5 (McClean, 2010). 6 (Wisner & Pelling, 2009). 2 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda Figure 2.  Climatological disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1971–2012 Source: EM-DAT. is urbanizing faster than any other region in the region with the highest proportion (62 percent) world and is projected to have its urban popu- of its city dwellers living in slum conditions.8 Such lation more than triple by 2050.7 It is also the rates of urban growth present both disaster risk 7 (UNDESA, 2014). 8 (UN-Habitat, 2013). 3 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 challenges and opportunities for the region. Ret- events on the continent may be linked to the El rofitting buildings and infrastructure already in Niño Southern Oscillation11 phenomena. The place is much more challenging and expensive. zones affected by these linked phenomena are: Thus it is a critical time for expanding cities in Africa to integrate disaster risk management into 1. West Africa: The northern migration of the their city planning, and similarly, to engage in ITCZ brings heavy rains along the West risk reducing activities that address present day African coast from July to September. On development needs. the dry grounds of the Sahel, intense rain- Disaster risk is the result of the intersection fall can quickly lead to flooding, but the of natural hazards, vulnerability and exposure. rains are not as damaging in the coastal Chapter 1 will review the most prevalent haz- regions which receive regular rainfall over ards in Africa, as well as the factors driving vul- a long time period. nerability and increasing exposure of the pop- 2. East Africa: Due to its equatorial posi- ulation across the continent. tion, the high grounds in East Africa see flooding during two rainy seasons when 1.1 DISASTER PROFILE the ITCZ moves north between February and May and southwards from October Natural disasters in Africa are predominant- to December. Since the distance covered ly hydro-meteorological and climatological. by the ITCZ is large in East Africa, the Epidemics also comprise a large proportion amount of rain is distributed over a larg- of disasters in the region. This section will er area, leading to less intense rainy sea- review the climate profile across the conti- sons than in West Africa. nent, the most common disasters of drought, 3. Southern Africa: Southern Africa has a sin- flood, cyclones and storms, and epidemics, as gle rainy season with frequent flooding well as the less frequent earthquakes, volca- linked to the southerly movement of the noes and landslides. ITCZ from November to February. In addi- tion, the region is subject to infrequent but The climate profile in Africa heavy rains and flash floods punctuating Rainfall patterns in Africa are linked to the the normally arid and semi-arid conditions. Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), 9 4. Central Africa: Central Africa’s climate is which moves in a southerly position during the both influenced by the movement of the northern hemisphere winter, and in a north- ITCZ (notably in northern and western erly position during the northern hemisphere parts similar to western Africa) and its summer.10 Many extreme hydro-meteorological proximity to the equator and the tropical 9Intertropical Convergence Zone is a global scale area of convergence between dry air masses on both pole- ward sides of the equatorial belt of most air. The interface of the warm air with dry stable air forms clouds and rains, which occur as major seasonal feature and intense localized thunderstorms. 10 (Williams & Kniveton, 2011). 11 El Niño Southern Oscillation is a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacif- ic Ocean on average every five years. It is characterized by warming or cooling of temperature known as El Niño and La Niña, respectively. The ENSO weather phenomena is said to cause severe impact on the glob- al climate (NOAA, 2010). 4 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda Figure 3.  Rainy seasons in West, East and southern Africa and recent flooding events Source: UNEP 2010. rain forest zones, where a diurnal climate of Cameroon. In Nigeria alone, this affected 2.8 is prevalent with high amounts of precipi- million people and their livelihoods and led to a tation throughout the year. noticeable drop in agricultural production (the most impacted productive sector). Floods Flash floods—especially in urban areas— Floods are the most frequent disaster in Afri- can impact any region after extreme rainfall. ca. Seventeen of the 52 largest trans-boundary Urban floods, however, are a constant threat river systems in the world are located in Africa, throughout the continent. Insufficient infrastruc- in addition to 160 major fresh water lakes. The ture and limited urban planning result in a lack most prominent river systems are the Niger, Sen- of enforced standards for construction, rendering egal and Volta in West Africa; the Congo River and Lake Chad Basin in central Africa; the Nile in East Africa; as well as the Zambezi, Limpopo, and Orange River in southern Africa. In addition, there are several smaller rivers, many of which are seasonal. Most parts of these rivers are unregu- lated, and seasonal floods occur frequently. Nota- bly, the densely populated delta regions of the major river systems, such as the Niger and Zam- bezi deltas, suffer from major floods. The impact is exacerbated by weak flood protection, insuffi- cient urban drainage systems and increased run- off due to land degradation. In 2012, for example, floods heavily impacted the Niger River, includ- Flooding in Tanzania resulted in major road damage. Credit: ing large parts of Niger and Nigeria and sections World Bank. 5 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 large parts of the urban population vulnerable to natural hazards. This is particularly true for rapidly growing informal settlements and low- income communities. Urban floods are often a combination of river flooding and flash floods. Rapidly growing urban areas are often situated in low-lying river deltas or coastal areas directly exposed to sea-level rise, coastal surge and inun- dation. In September 2009, the floods in Burkina Faso were caused by exceptionally high amounts of rainfall (263 mm), which fell around the capi- tal of Ouagadougou in less than 12 hours. Weak drainage infrastructure and collapsing hydrau- lic infrastructure exacerbated the floods, which affected more than 150,000 people and killed 46. Urban areas, such as Ouagadougou, are usually the engines of economic growth and centers of economic assets, often multiplying the negative Prolonged periods of drought impact major agricultural areas economic impact from a disaster. such as this sunflower field in South Africa. Credit: Richard Jary. Droughts 1. West Africa: The Sahel region is a semi-arid Affecting the most people in Africa, droughts transition zone between the Sahara desert occur predominately in semi-arid and sub- in the north and the more humid Savannah humid areas of the Sahel countries, the Horn region in the south stretching from Mau- of Africa and southern Africa. In these regions, ritania in the west to Djibouti in the east impacts are especially large due to the reliance on of Africa. Traditionally the Sahel region rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism. Drought, is associated with parts of French-speak- triggered by insufficient precipitation over an ing West Africa. The Sahel has a very short extended period, has a cyclical pattern. This is growing season during three rainy months, occurring at increasingly higher frequencies and is highly vulnerable to climate shocks due to deforestation, land-cover changes, and due to its marginal production. unsustainable land management. In East and 2. East Africa: The Horn of Africa is frequent- southern Africa, climate change is projected to ly affected by widespread and devastating intensify drought in some seasons in the 21st droughts. The 2011 drought was considered century12. Droughts have the most pronounced the most severe in the last 60 years. impact on food security, affecting millions of 3. Southern Africa: This region includes vulnerable people every year in the region. The arid and semi-arid regions of Mozam- three most affected zones are: bique, Malawi, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. 12 (Niang et al., 2014). 6 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda Epidemics reported epidemics include cholera, meningi- Recurrent outbreaks of epidemics are a threat tis, measles, viral hemorrhagic fevers, plague to social and economic development in Afri- and dengue.13 Underlying factors such as weak ca. From 1970–2014, the region was exposed public infrastructure, inadequate access to safe to 766 epidemic disasters, accounting for 18 water and sanitation, primary health condi- percent of the total disaster deaths (second tions, limited public awareness of prevailing behind droughts) and three percent of the disas- health risks and weak health systems with lim- ter-affected population. The most frequently ited capacity identification and response have Box 1:  The 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak that began in March 2014 is the most widespread in history and the first to reach epidemic proportions. The three most affected countries have been Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, though cases have also been reported in Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Since West African countries had previously not recorded any cases, the EVD was able to spread for several months before it was recognized. In its initial phases (approximately three months), the case fatality rate was 86 percent among the early confirmed cases and 71 percent among clinically suspected cases.a As of December 2015, there has been over 28,000 reported confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, with over 11,000 reported fatalities. In addition to the significant loss of life, the epidemic has resulted in significant economic and livelihood impacts.b Airline traffic was interrupted, border crossings were closed and restrictions were made on movement, schools and local markets experienced prolonged closures and crop harvests have lowered, resulting in increased food security risks. The worst impacts of the EVD crisis have been felt by the poor, who reported losing their jobs and sources of income, difficulty accessing medical services and traumatic feelings of fear.c On a macro level, it is estimated that the most affected countries will lose at least $1.6 billion in forgone economic growth in 2015.d a Baize et al., 2014 b WHO, 2015. c Mukpo, 2015. d World Bank, 2015. 13 Kasolo & Roungou, 2015. 7 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 contributed to the high frequency and magni- tude of these outbreaks.14 Almost ten percent of all epidemic-related deaths in Africa over the past 35 years took place in the single year of 2014 as a result of the Ebola crisis (see Box 1). It is estimated that the most affected coun- tries—Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone—will lose at least $1.6 billion in forgone econom- ic growth in 2015 as a result of the epidemic.15 Addressing epidemic risk has not historically been an active part of the disaster risk manage- ment portfolio; for example, attempts to com- bat the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa have been the purview of The World Bank’s Health, Nutrition and Population practice. However, the inclusion of biological hazards in the Send- Country residents are not the only ones affected by cyclones. ai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Wildlife is also exposed to this danger. Credit: Bevs Photos. recent outbreaks of epidemics like Ebola Virus Disease warrant further consideration on how this hazard should be addressed in the region. a single cyclone season can cause losses and damages to individual households equivalent Cyclones and storms to 10–30 percent of the average annual GDP Cyclones and tropical storms affect coun- per capita. The 2008 cyclone season, for exam- tries on the southeastern coast of the conti- ple, damaged some six percent of existing health nent along the Indian Ocean. Approximate- centers and four percent of primary schools, in ly 12 tropical cyclones form in the Southwest addition to causing extensive damage to irriga- Indian Ocean basin each year, of which approxi- tion and transport infrastructure.18 Looking at mately 25 percent make landfall.16 Mostly affect- the long-term trends over the past six to seven ing Madagascar, Mozambique and a number of decades, to the extent data allows, there has not Indian Ocean islands (such as Mauritius and yet been a significant increase in the number the Comoros archipelago), storms account for of cyclones making landfall in Madagascar or approximately 35 percent of damages and loss- Mozambique in the past few years.19 Recent es in Africa.17 Most of these damages take place trends, however, indicate that an increasing during the peak cyclone season from Novem- number of tropical cyclones are tracking to the ber to May. In eastern and western Madagascar, south of Madagascar, which will likely increase 14 Ibid. 15 Thomas et al., 2015. 16 (Mavume, Rydberg, Rouault, & Lutjeharms, 2010). 17 (Guha-Sapir et al., 2015). 18 (Government of Madagascar, 2008). 19 (Fitchett & Grab, 2014). 8 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda the hazard exposure of countries such as Swa- ziland and South Africa in the next several decades.20 Additionally, in Africa, rapid popu- lation growth is projected to increase the num- ber of people exposed to cyclones by 54 per- cent by 2030,21 thereby significantly increasing tropical cyclone risk. Earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides Less common than floods and drought, seismic In 2014, The Nyamuragira Volcano in Eastern Congo became risk is nonetheless a threat to Africa. Countries active again. Source: Meteoweb.eu. along the Rift Valley, stretching from Eritrea to Mozambique, are particularly vulnerable to earth- and pastoralists remain the most affected by land quakes. Also along the Rift Valley and on Indi- degradation, which results from soil erosion an Ocean islands, several volcanoes are known (sometimes leading to landslides), deforestation to be active, including Mount Nyiragongo in and un-sustainable land management. Land deg- the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mount radation is a leading driver of increasing land- Karthala on the Comoros. As was demonstrat- slide hazard across Africa. Degradations such as ed by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, low-lying deforestation, over-grazing and urbanization in countries along the coast of the Indian Ocean mountainous or hilly areas increase the risk for are exposed to tsunami hazards. While generat- landslides. These factors contribute to the instabil- ed more than 6000 km from Africa’s east coast, ity of an earthen slope and just one trigger, such the tsunami resulted in several hundred casual- as a heavy downpour, can initiate the failure of ties and damage to coastal infrastructure across an entire hillside. In February 2014, heavy rain- the countries of Somalia, Mauritius, Tanzania, fall around Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, Kenya, South Africa and Madagascar.22 These created landslides and flash flooding, disrupting events, however, are extremely infrequent, and road and water infrastructure, destroying more an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System that than 1,000 houses and leaving 69 people dead.23 has subsequently been put in place will signifi- cantly assist in live-saving efforts in Africa region. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 1.2  In countries with hilly terrain and high IMPACTS OF DISASTERS levels of rainfall, landslide risk is high due to widely prevalent soil erosion, deforestation and Disasters can lead to significant macroeconom- unsustainable land management. With Africa’s ic costs—including decline in GDP growth and heavy reliance on agriculture, subsistence farmers cumulative permanent GDP loss. These impacts 20 (Fitchett & Grab, 2014). 21 (Peduzzi et al., 2012). 22 (Obura, 2006). 23 (The World Bank, 2014a). 9 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Areas exposed to drought in Figure 4.  Location of Rift Valley, seismically Figure 5.  Sub-Saharan Africa active areas and volcanoes Source: World Bank Maps Spatial Services. Source: World Bank Maps Spatial Services. affect not only the government’s budget but also Number of people affected by Figure 6.  the long-term development prospects of affect- drought, flood, insect infestation, ed countries. The 2008–2011 drought in Kenya earthquake and storms by country from 1975–2013 caused an estimated $12.1 billion in damag- es and losses, slowing the country’s GDP by an average of 2.8 percent per year.24 In 2012, floods in Nigeria caused combined damages and loss- es of $16.9 billion, or 1.4 percent of GDP. The impact on smaller economies is even more severe. In Madagascar, a 2008 cyclone caused damag- es equivalent to four percent of GDP. Heavy rains in Lesotho in 2010 caused losses equiva- lent to 3.2 percent of GDP (Figure 8). A recent World Bank study estimates that Malawi, a small country with a GDP of only $4.7 billion, loses 1.7 percent of GDP every year to droughts and floods. Severe disaster events could even contract Malawi’s GDP by as much as 10.4 percent.25 Most recently, PDNA results following the devastat- Source: World Bank Maps Spatial Services. ing 2015 floods in Malawi indicated the effects 24 (Government of Kenya, 2012). 10 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda impact of the floods, other things being equal, Annual GDP growth in Kenya, Figure 7.  may thus lead to GDP growth falling short of observed after drought vs. projected without drought the 5.8 percent projection set for 2015.26 Across the African continent, estimation 9 of natural disaster damages remains extreme- 8 ly challenging as data are often poorly reported Annual GDP Growth rate % 7 or simply not available. Nonetheless, best esti- 6 mates from EM-DAT report that natural haz- 5 ards resulted in an average of about $400 mil- 4 lion a year in damages. Without adequate risk 3 management strategies, projections in popula- 2 tion and economic growth alone are expected 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 to quadruple baseline damages to $1.6 billion a Without drought Observed after drought year by 2100.27 This does not include the effects of climate change, which is likely to increase the Source: Government of Kenya op. cit. severity and frequency of some meteorological and climatological hazards. Such figures under- score the importance of integrating risk man- of damages and losses will result in a projected agement into development planning to ensure negative impact on GDP growth of 0.6 percent. that future development gains are not eroded The economic costs resulting from the negative by hazard events. Economic impact of disasters Figure 8.  4% Madagascar 2008 Cyclones 333 million 3% Lesotho 2010 Heavy rains 54 million 1.4% Nigeria 2012 Floods 16.1 million 0.7% Senegal 2009 Floods 104 million Impact relative to GDP 0 100 200 300 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 US$ million Damages (US$ million) Losses (US$ million) Source: World Bank, Various Post-Disaster Needs Assessments. 25 (The World Bank, RMSI, & GFDRR, 2010a, 2010b). 26 Government of Malawi, 2015). 27 (Ruocco, Gasparini, & Weets, 2015). 11 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Disasters also have severe negative impacts days could cause serious setbacks for patients on human development. Beyond their impact receiving daily treatments for chronic ailments. on incomes, disasters can lead to long-term A study that examined the long-term disas- setbacks in education, health, and employment ter impacts on children of poor households in opportunities. Following severe floods in Nige- Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger and Zimbabwe found ria in 2012, four states with a Human Develop- heightened risk of malnourishment, stunting ment Index (HDI) below 0.5 (Anambra, Taraba, and decreased schooling in children exposed Kebbi and Kogi) sustained severe socioeconomic to drought30 (Box 2). damage and losses.28 The floods reduced access to the basic food supply at the household level DISASTER INDUCED POVERTY 1.3  due to the damage of shelter, productive assets and basic infrastructure (such as roads leading The poorest find it hardest to cope with disas- to markets). This contributed to an increase in ter shocks, which can keep people from mov- the number of under-nourished people over the ing out of poverty and even push more peo- short- to medium-term while food prices inev- ple into poverty. People living below, at or just itably increased. During and after the Kenya above the poverty threshold are vulnerable to drought from 2008–2011, the HDI in the affect- fall into or further into poverty when hit by neg- ed regions fell from 0.6 to 0.4.29 Regions with a ative shocks. In areas of recurrent disasters, this lower HDI experienced higher per capita dam- hampers growth, leading to a “poverty trap.” A age and losses. recent study by the Overseas Development Insti- In 2012, widespread flooding across West tute (ODI) found that by 2030, up to 118 mil- Africa also contributed to a reduction in the lion extremely poor people (living below $1.25 effectiveness of education systems. The destruc- per day) will be exposed to drought, floods and tion of classrooms in affected countries such as extreme heat in Africa alone.31 Of the 11 coun- Benin, Cameroon and Ghana, reduced net enroll- tries across the globe most at-risk from disaster- ment rates for primary and secondary schools. induced poverty, eight are in Africa.32 In addition to physical damage to schools, low- Frequent disasters perpetuate the poverty income families often remove their children cycle by contributing to increased poverty levels from school following disaster events, either to and often affecting the poorest and most vulnera- reduce their expenses or so that children help ble parts of the population. An assessment of the to earn income for the household. In terms of economic vulnerability to disasters conducted health, disasters can also reduce access to care in Malawi33 and data from recent PDNAs34 illus- facilities where an interruption of just a few trate this. Econometric model results for Malawi 28 (Government of Nigeria, 2013). 29 (Government of Kenya & UNDP, 2010). 30 (Seck & Fuentes, 2010). 31 (Shepherd et al., 2013). 32 The 11 countries most at risk of disaster-induced poverty (high numbers of people living in poverty, high multi-hazard exposure, inadequate capacity to minimize impacts) are Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. 33 (The World Bank et al., 2010b). 34 (Government of Kenya, 2012; Government of Lesotho, 2012; Government of Nigeria, 2013). 12 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda Box 2:  Impacts of Drought on Human Development in Four African Countries Ethiopia: Children aged five or less in drought-prone areas are 36 percent more likely to be malnourished and 41 percent more likely to be stunted if they are born during a drought year. This translates into some two million “addi- tional” malnourished children. Kenya: Being born in a drought year increases the likelihood of child malnutrition by 50 percent. Niger: Children aged two or under born during, and affected by, a drought year are 72 percent more likely to be stunted. Zimbabwe: Children born during drought-affected periods are, on average, 2.3 cm shorter. Delayed start of school- ing results in a loss of 0.4 years of school life, which leads to a 14 percent loss of lifetime earnings. estimate that droughts reduce GDP on average of the country which had higher disaster relat- by one percent each year, while extreme events ed per capita impacts subsequently resulted in such as the drought from 1991/1992 contract- lower human development index. ed GDP by more than ten percent. On average, Disasters lead to income shocks, and loss droughts cause a 1.3 percent increase to pover- of assets and livelihoods. Low income groups ty in Malawi, but this can increase to almost 17 are often forced to settle in high-risk areas (for percent or more during a severe drought event example, inundation zones), live in houses that such as the 1991/1992 event, which affected 2.1 cannot resist hazard shocks, and rely on a sin- million people. gle livelihood source (such as agricultural and In Madagascar, the three cyclones which pastoral) with few alternative income opportu- struck the island in 2008 affected some 342,000 nities. Hazardous areas are often the only sites people and had substantial impacts on the liveli- that low income groups can occupy that are hoods of the affected population. It resulted in an close to income-earning opportunities. Low- estimated loss of 6.2 million working days, pri- income neighborhoods have the least provi- marily in the fishing and agricultural sectors. This sion for protective infrastructure and fewest loss of manual labor, farm and off-farm income resources on which to call when disasters dam- particularly affected the most vulnerable groups age or destroy their housing. Following a disas- of society who depended on casual labor oppor- ter, poor and vulnerable populations often have tunities. In Madagascar, as well as in Kenya and only limited options to reconstruct according to Lesotho, recent PDNAs highlighted that areas disaster-resistant standards. The poor also have 13 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Box 3:  Impact on the Poor Following Flooding In Niger, approximately 70 percent of the popu- lation relies on agriculture for its livelihood. Dur- ing the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s, a large portion of the rural, agriculturalist population migrated to low-lying parts of urban areas through- out the country seeking alternative livelihoods. Once drought conditions eased, rainfall began to return to normal levels and in the subsequent 15 years, combined with the intensification and den- sification of the urbanization plus low levels of maintenance of flood protection infrastructure, the migrants began to suffer from recurrent flood- ing events. Cities most affected were Niamey, Dosso, Tillabery and Diffa, where flooding dis- placed large portions of the migrant population who were also often the poorest. The $100 million Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban Development Project, launched in December 2013, aims at supporting improved flood risk management. The project supports an innovative combination of improved urban drainage and flood protection infrastructure, sustainable water management practices upstream of the water- sheds, more predictable financial resources for maintenance implemented by local governments and early warning and civil protection capacity. As a priority, the project also supports at-risk households which are among the poorest. less access to potable water and sanitation infra- Disasters can intensify the socio-economic structure in an emergency, leaving them more and political conditions that persisted before vulnerable to waterborne diseases. the disaster, perpetuating a cycle of poverty Areas in countries with low development and vulnerability. Poor households often lack indicators are often limited in their develop- access to the various assets associated with the ment due to repeated disasters. Figure 7 illustrates sustainable livelihoods framework, which leaves the relation of per capita damage and the average them less able to cope with shocks and stressors. HDI of different districts following the 2008–2011 Examples of such assets include income, sav- drought in Kenya. Smaller but recurrent events can ings, insurance, adequate housing, social safe- also have significant poverty impacts. The study ty nets, land and education, and can be broad- on Malawi mentioned above found that average ly categorized into physical, natural, human, droughts cause a 1.3 percent increase in poverty, financial and social capital. These underlying while one in 25-year drought events could cause drivers of impoverishment can exacerbate the an increase in poverty of up to 17 percent, equiv- long-term impacts of disasters, and in turn, lead alent to 2.1 million people. Small-scale farmers to further marginalization. Systemic risks, such and non-farm poor urban households were found as drought or large-scale flooding, also often to be most vulnerable as they spend a large pro- lead to breakdowns in informal safety nets on portion of their income on food.35 which the poor rely when faced with a lack of 35 (The World Bank et al., 2010b). 14 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda driving vulnerability to natural hazards. Persis- tent conflicts and environmental degradation increase the vulnerability of hundreds of mil- lions across the continent. Additionally inade- quate infrastructure, insufficient information, and weak institutions complicate effective risk management. Climate change Climate change will become an increasing- ly important driver of rising disaster risk in Africa. The recent World Bank Report (2013), “Turn Down the Heat,” points toward a number of trends that would result in intensifying weath- Benin floods left areas inundated with water, resulting in difficulty er extremes, leading to a rise in disaster risk. in maneuvering through the area.. Credit: The World Bank Group Projections point to a high likelihood of access to formal systems such as insurance and increased annual precipitation in the Horn access to credit. Official government safety nets of Africa and parts of East Africa that is like- can be overstretched and unable to cope with a ly to be concentrated in bursts and, thereby, large influx of newly destitute populations. Sim- increasing the risk of flooding. ilarly, during times of crisis, government pro- Along the coast of West Africa, a sea level grams aimed to assist affected households may rise will affect coastal cities such as Dakar, exclude informal settlers, who are often high- Lomé and Lagos. ly vulnerable and at risk from disaster events. Droughts are expected to become more Risk management for low income populations likely in central and southern Africa, and should be interwoven with strategies to build never-before-experienced heat extremes up their assets and improve daily living condi- are projected to affect rising proportions tions and overall livelihoods.36 of the region.37 1.4  THE DRIVERS OF DISASTER RISK Water scarcity will become more pro- nounced throughout much of Africa. This Global and regional trends further exacerbate is projected to lead to an overall increase in the development challenges faced in Africa. A the risk of drought in southern and central changing climate and rapid unplanned urbaniza- Africa. In presently dry regions, drought fre- tion, often with little or no regard for managing quency will likely increase by the end of the risks, add additional uncertainty and complexity 21st century.38 36 (Few, 2003; Gaillard, Pangilinan, Cadag, & LeMasson, 2008; Sanderson, 2012). 37 (The World Bank, 2013). 38 (IPCC, 2014). 15 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Cyclone Felleng in 2013 left widespread devastation across much of Madagascar. Many homes were not able to withstand the heavy winds and rain. In the Horn of Africa and the northern observed over the 20th century has had little part of East Africa, rainfall patterns are expect- impact on the agricultural system. However a ed to become more extreme. Although substan- 1.5°C warming (expected to occur by the 2030s tial disagreements exist between models, many in some scenarios) could lead to about 40 per- global climate models project that rainfall will cent of present maize cropping areas being no increase in the Horn of Africa and the north- longer suitable for current cultivars.40 ern part of East Africa. The increases, howev- Population growth in coastal areas er, are projected to occur during already high- already exposed to hazards increases poten- er intensity rainfall periods, rather than evenly tial impacts from disasters. Along Africa’s long during the year, increasing the risk of floods.39 coast line, a significant number of cities and Agricultural production is expected to be towns are located in low-river deltas or coastal affected in the near-term. Significant impacts are areas directly exposed to sea-level rise, coast- expected well before mid-century even for rela- al surges, land subsidence, coastal erosion and tively low levels of warming. The 0.7°C warming other growing risks. 39 The World Bank, 2013). 40 (The World Bank, 2013). 16 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda Sea-level rise is increasingly a concern for many countries, particularly those with low- lying urban centers such as the densely popu- lated Niger Delta and low-lying areas along the coasts of West and East Africa and Madagascar. Scenarios for climate change show that a 2°C or more rise from global warming in Tanzania could cause a sea level rise of 5–19 cm by 2030, sub- merging vast areas of land. It is likely that with- out adaptation, this would possibly lead to more than 850,000 people being forced to migrate to urban areas. Urban areas along large river sys- tems have also attracted formerly rural popu- lations in recent decades, with the latest arriv- als having often settled in flood-prone zones.41 Rapid urbanization Residents of disaster affected zones are often in shock following Urban areas account for significant fatalities the devastation caused by extreme events. Credit: Claudiad. and losses from disasters. A review of urban disasters in the EM-DAT database revealed that urban populations will significantly increase. African cities have been impacted by drought, With an average urban growth of 3.4 percent, epidemics, earthquakes, cyclone and storms, the continent’s urban population is projected to floods and extreme temperature events. Floods reach 1.2 billion by 2050. This means 60 percent were the most damaging urban disaster, respon- of all Africans will be living in cities, a significant sible for more than 90 percent of monetary disas- increase from the 40 percent in the present day.43 ter damages and accounting for one-third of the Africa’s largest ten cities are projected to grow disaster affected population.42 As an example, 50 percent over the current decade. An extreme major floods in Dakar, Senegal resulted in costs example is Ouagadougou where the population for reconstruction and improved standards of is expected to increase by 81 percent in ten years, transport infrastructure that totaled $56 mil- from 1.9 million in 2010 to 3.4 million in 2020. lion in damages and $48 million in econom- By 2025, the largest African cities are expected to ic losses. Over 70 percent of the affected peo- be located mainly in the region, and the largest ple (360,000 out of 485,000) lived in Dakar, the agglomerations will be in coastal areas.44 capital and largest city. Urban sprawl and informal settlements— Africa is the fastest urbanizing continent two outcomes of rapid and often unplanned in the world, and thus, the hazard exposure of urbanization—are exposing citizens to new 41 (The World Bank, 2013). 42 (Wisner & Pelling, 2009). 43 (UN-Habitat, 2010). 44 (Ruocco et al., 2015). 17 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 hazards and increasing the impacts of disas- Climate Change City Primer, reviewed general ters. Globally, the built up urban area is pro- administrative information, governance struc- jected to triple by 2050 as cities are sprawling, tures related to disaster risks, urban planning and Africa is no exception. This development and land use regulations, as well as political, eco- takes place largely without any urban planning, nomic and social factors. The survey found that exposing residents to new hazards that can have the local and municipal entities have very lim- cascading impacts. For example, an increase in ited scope to implement disaster risk manage- built-up areas can increase run-off and flood ment (DRM) strategies and influence policies. potential, followed by an increasing number of Land use planning instruments remain under urban epidemics through transmission of vec- the influence of national authorities (Figure 9). tor and water borne diseases. A GFDRR study As Africa transforms into a largely urban (2009)45 concluded that the peri-urban areas continent, informal settlements are also of Dakar encompass the largest community increasing. Urban land pressure often forces exposed to natural disasters within the met- informal settlers to occupy dangerous areas, ropolitan area. Another survey, based on the such as low-lying coastal areas, along and within Figure 9:  Hot spots of population increase in high-risk flood zones in Dakar (Senegal) Source: Wang et al 2009. 45 Wang, Montoliu-Munoz, The Geoville Group, & Gueye, 2009. 18 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda river channels, under bridges, on steep hillsides of both conflicts and disasters by strengthen- and around landfills or dumpsites. Thus, in ing the risk management across humanitarian addition to the threat of eviction and demoli- and development planning and implementation. tion, those living in such marginal spaces must Conflict and fragility can increase the also cope with frequent disaster events. Africa vulnerability of the exposed population. Not is the region with the highest proportion (62 only does a fragile environment make it more percent) of its city dwellers living in slum con- difficult to implement DRM investments, con- ditions,46 and their absolute numbers are only flict can also weaken the coping mechanisms of projected to increase in upcoming decades. people. Where Kenya borders Somalia, for exam- Moreover, informal settlers are especially vul- ple, livestock raiding has been shown to affect nerable to natural hazards as they typically have the coping method of using traditional migra- limited access to various physical, financial and tory routes to help populations escape from social resources to cope during or after a disas- drought.48 Conflict also increases disaster risk ter event. UN Habitat highlights the example by displacing people into areas more exposed to of the Kibera slum, which is located just a few hazards and through the impacts it has on phys- kilometers from the Nairobi city center, and is ical and psychological health, basic service pro- home to some 500,000 to 700,000 people living vision and the security of livelihoods. A result of at densities of over 2,000 per hectare. It will take this can be seen with the pastoralists in Soma- more sustainable forms of urban development lia who are unable to follow traditional routes that create opportunities for economic growth, as well as the reduction of disaster risks with- in these informal communities to decrease the vulnerability of the poor. Conflicts Conflicts and disasters can be mutually rein- forcing, worsening negative development impacts and increasing human suffering. From 2005–2009, more than 50 percent of peo- ple affected by disasters lived in fragile and con- flict-affected states (globally), and 14 out of 20 of the most conflict-affected states are in Afri- ca.47 The 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa illustrated how political instability and con- flict can collide with natural hazards to result in a full-scale complex humanitarian crisis. The A soldier stands in the Danakil Desert in the Afar Triangle, resilience agenda can help reduce the impacts Ethiopia. Credit: guenterguni. 46 UN-Habitat, 2013. 47 (Harris, Keen, & Mitchell, 2013) 48 (Harris et al., 2013). 19 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 to escape drought due to the presence of armed Land degradation groups. Furthermore, a 2013 study sponsored by Unsustainable land use and land degrada- UKAID shows that the disruption caused by nat- tion is also contributing to increasing the ural disasters impacts livelihoods and can lead risk of disasters. Forest degradation and other to individuals joining armed groups.49 The study changes in land cover can increase exposure to also finds that political opportunities can arise floods because the capacity of water to infil- following a disaster, which can act as a type of trate is reduced and surface run-off increases. “smokescreen” for opportunists. Landslide risk also increases. At the same time, Disasters can also act as an external stress it reduces water absorption, storage capacity and on already fragile societies. The 2011 World availability for irrigation and power production. Development Report found that such stress- Partnerships, such as the NEPAD-led TerrAfri- es raise the risk of violence (The World Bank, ca, support solutions to address these issues, and 2011b). In certain circumstances, governments one example of integration with DRM is with can also exacerbate post-disaster suffering and the Togo Integrated Land Management Project fragility by inhibiting aid on security grounds – co-funded by the ACP-EU Natural Disaster or appropriating humanitarian aid to support Risk Reduction Program (NDRR). As part of the conflict objectives. TerrAfrica network of projects, the Togo proj- While disasters and conflict typically col- ect aims to strengthen the institutional capac- lide to increase risk, there are few examples ity of relevant organizations to manage flood- where disaster events can act as a catalyst for ing and land degradation. diplomacy and conflict resolution. An example Land degradation increases the vulnera- of this is in Aceh, Indonesia following the 2004 bility of rural livelihoods to weather extremes Indian Ocean tsunami. The decades-long con- and disasters. Some Africa-wide estimates have flict between the separatist Frees Aceh Movement suggested that about 67 percent of the total area (GAM) and the central Government had claimed of Africa is affected by some form of land deg- about 25,000 lives, displaced over 400,000 people, radation, i.e., about 16 million square kilome- destroyed the productive sector, weakened insti- ters, of which about one-fourth is rated severe to tutions and eroded the social fabric of a large part very severe.52 Other estimates based on remote of the Acehnese society.50 The urgency of the tsu- sensing data paint a less severe picture, suggest- nami disaster accelerated ongoing peace talks and ing that about ten percent of agriculture and led to an eventual peace agreement between the mixed cropping area is affected by land degra- groups. It should be noted, however, that while the dation.53 While estimates on the extent of land disaster provided a powerful catalyst, non-disas- degradation vary depending on methodology, ter related factors also had a significant impact they all show significant declines in land quality. on building the diplomatic relations.51 This erosion of the natural asset base, which is a 49 Ibid. 50 (Fan, 2013). 51 (Gaillard, Clavé, & Kelman, 2008). 52 (FAO, 2000). 53 (Vlek, 2008). 20 Disaster Risk Management in Africa – An Urgent Development and Poverty Reduction Agenda primary foundation of rural livelihoods, under- losses or displacement.56 For example, women mines food security and constrains economic may be forced to walk longer distances to retrieve development. These problems have resulted in water when local sources run dry from drought, the loss of land productivity,54 declines in for- thus putting themselves at increased risk of est cover and biodiversity, and decreases in the exploitation. quality and quantity of water resources. Women are at particular risk from disas- ters, often experiencing higher rates of mortal- Gender inequality ity, morbidity and reductions in post-disaster The consequences of a disaster on human livelihoods. Underlying factors such as lack of population can take many forms and affect means to recoup lost assets, limited livelihood a society’s ability to live and work together.55 options, restricted access to education and basic Social support networks can be strained during services, and in many cases, also socio-cultural a disaster, resulting in less support for families norms, exacerbate women’s vulnerability to the whose houses are destroyed by floods, or have impacts of disasters. Failure to consider gender a negative impact on a pastoralist community in DRM programs likely does not capture the whose grazing land is devastated. Entire com- full range of impacts, which can hinder recon- munities can be altered during a time of crisis, struction, recovery and long-term development with poorer populations often receiving the of countries that repeatedly suffer from disas- brunt of the impact. Additionally, existing vul- ters. In contrast, actively focusing on women can nerabilities can be aggravated, such as gender make DRM more effective through their par- inequality, when disaster-impacted communi- ticipation and empowerment in the planning, ties use any means possible to cope with large decision-making and implementation processes. 54 (WRI, UNDP, UNEP, & The World Bank, 2005). 55 (The Interorganizational Committee on Principles and Guidelines for Social Impact Assessment, 2003). 56 (UNISDR, 2009). 21 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Including building codes into regional policies is just one way to address the “building back better” concept. This helps houses such as this one to keep their roofs during a cyclone. 22 Chapter 2 Regional Policies Help Shape Resilient Development Frameworks and strategies are important at SDGs and the new climate agreement are critical global, regional and national levels to guide to promote the advancement of risk reduction. countries to mainstream DRM. Based on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk 2015–2030,57 the region has invested signifi- Reduction (2015–2030) cant efforts in creating a regional policy envi- The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduc- ronment at different levels. The African Union tion succeeded the Hyogo Framework for Action is currently updating the Africa Regional Strat- (HFA) 2005–2015. Its goal and four priorities for egy for Disaster Risk Reduction. The Regional action are shown in Box 4. It calls for a shift from Economic Commissions (RECs) are also sharp- disaster management to addressing the underly- ening their respective policies, strategies and ing drivers of disaster risk, such as poorly planned plans of action to advance the DRM agenda urban growth and climate change. It also under- within their member states and foster region- lines the need to cover frequent, smaller scale al integration. events, in addition to larger extreme disasters. In comparison to the HFA, the Sendai Framework 2.1  INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT places increased emphasis on social processes and weak institutional arrangements as drivers Three international agreements were adopted of risk and cuts across many sectors including in 2015: i) the Sendai Framework for Disaster health, education and the environment. Though Risk Reduction; ii) the Sustainable Develop- a voluntary non-binding agreement, it sets glob- ment Goals (SDGs); and iii) the United Nations al targets for disaster risk reduction. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. Given the growing Sustainable Development Goals importance of promoting coherence and mutu- The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) fol- al reinforcement across disaster risk reduction, low from the Millennium Development Goals, a climate change and sustainable development, set of eight international development goals with this has presented an unparalleled opportuni- specific targets that were to be achieved by 2015. ty to align the UN agreements. Thus, while the The SDGs consist of 17 goals and 169 targets. Sendai Framework remains as the main global Given that disasters hinder economic growth, policy framework for DRR, synergies across the affect poverty levels and result in human suffering, 57 (UNISDR, 2015). 23 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Box 4:  Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 Goal: Prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk through the implementation of integrated and inclusive economic, struc- tural, legal, social, health, cultural, educational, environmental, technological, political and institutional measures that prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to disaster, increase preparedness for response and recov- ery, and thus strengthen resilience. Four priorities for action: 1. Understanding disaster risk 2. Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk 3. Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience 4. Seven global targets: a) Substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mor- tality rate in the decade 2020–2030 compared to the period 2005–2015. b) Substantially reduce the number of affected people globally by 2030, aiming to lower the average global fig- ure per 100,000 in the decade 2020–2030 compared to the period 2005–2015. c) Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. d) Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services, among them health and educational facilities, including through developing their resilience by 2030. e) Substantially increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies by 2020. f) Substantially enhance international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainable support to complement their national actions for implementation of the present Framework by 2030. g) Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030. The full text is available at www.unisdr.org. resilience to climate change and natural disasters changes to livelihoods. In December 2015, 196 has emerged as a key concept in the SDGs. Man- countries came together at the COP 21 to nego- aging disaster risks is explicitly mentioned in the tiate the Paris Agreement, an international agree- targets of four development goals. Such increas- ment on climate change. It sets the goal to limit ing attention to disaster risk management with- global warming to less than 2°C compared to pre- in the development area reflects a growing rec- industrial levels and to “pursue efforts” to limit ognition that effective disaster risk management the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. In terms of is required to achieve sustainable development. adaptation, the agreement establishes the glob- al goal to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen UNFCCC Climate Change Agreement resilience and reduce the vulnerability to climate Climate change will affect disaster risks through change, with a view to contributing to sustain- increases in the frequency and severity of some able development. To minimize loss and damag- weather and climatic hazards, and through es associated with the adverse effects of climate increases in the vulnerability of communities, change, including extreme weather and slow onset particularly through ecosystem degradation, events, the agreement highlights early warning reductions in water and food availability, and systems, emergency preparedness, comprehensive 24 Regional Policies Help Shape Resilient Development Table 1: Components of disaster risk reduction in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Proposed Goal Target Goal 1: End poverty in all its forms 1.5) By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable everywhere situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters Goal 2: End hunger, achieve food security 2.4) By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement and improved nutrition and resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, promote sustainable agriculture that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality Goal 11: Make cities and human 11.5) By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number settlements inclusive, safe, of people affected and significantly decrease the direct economic losses resilient and sustainable relative to gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water- related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations 11.b) By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, holistic disaster risk management at all levels Goal 13: Take urgent action to combat 13.1) Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related climate change and its impacts hazards and natural disasters in all countries risk assessment and risk insurance facilities as some of the key areas for action. The agreement strongly urges developed country Parties to scale up their level of financial support to provide $100 billion annually by 2020 for both mitiga- tion and adaptation, with a significant increase in adaptation finance from current levels. There is therefore an opportunity to ensure that DRM is integrated into climate finance mechanisms, of which an increasing proportion is being direct- ed towards adaptation. 2.2  REGIONAL CONTEXT In 2004, the African Union first demonstrated its commitment to DRM by adopting the Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction. World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim and African The strategy’s overarching aim is to contribute to Union Commission chair Dr. Dlamini-Zuma sign new African Union Commission World Bank cooperation agreement. sustainable development and poverty eradication Credit: The World Bank Group. 25 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 by facilitating the integration of Disaster Risk Regional DRM Plans of Action to bring them Reduction (DRR) into development. The strat- in line with the Sendai Framework. egy recognizes that interventions are best con- The current strategy calls on national ducted at the regional, national and local lev- governments to lead the process of develop- els. It therefore calls for initiatives at the country ing risk reduction capacities and integration and regional levels along six core objectives: of DRM into sustainable development. Ulti- (i) Increase political commitment to DRR; (ii) mate responsibility for implementation of the Improve identification and assessment of disas- strategy rests withinin national governments. ter risks; (iii) Enhance knowledge management; The national institutional arrangements for (iv) Increase public awareness; (v) Improve gov- DRM are different across the region. Nation- ernance of DRR institutions; and (vi) Integrate al authorities are working under various min- DRR into emergency response management. istries such as interior, defense, agriculture and The 1st African Ministerial Conference on local governments, and at times under the prime DRR (2005) adopted the Programme of Action minister. While DRM policies and frameworks for the Implementation of the Africa Region- are increasingly shifting from an ex-post to an al Strategy for DRR (2005–2010). The Extend- ex-ante approach, most of them still focus on ed Programme of Action (ePoA) for the Imple- disaster response. Sub-national and local gov- mentation of the Africa Regional Strategy for ernments are often responsible for implement- Disaster Risk Reduction (2006–2015) was sub- ing DRM policies at a local level, mostly with- sequently adopted at the 2nd African Ministerial out sufficient financial and technical resources. Conference on DRR in 2010 to align the Strate- Although progress has been achieved at estab- gy with the Hyogo Framework for Action. The lishing policies and frameworks at regional and ePoA sets out strategic areas of intervention national levels, implementation at local level has and identifies priorities for the regional level. considerable room for improvement in Africa. The African Union set up the Africa Working Regional Economic Commissions (RECs) Group for DRR (AWG) to support the implemen- play an important role in interpreting the Afri- tation and supervision of the ePoA. The Sendai can Union strategy at the regional level and facil- Framework has triggered a process for aligning itating implementation at the national level. the regional and national strategies for DRM. All eight AU-recognized RECs,58 as well as three The 4th AWG in July 2015 adopted the Yaoundé RECs59 not recognized by the AU, have includ- Declaration requesting the Africa Union to lead ed DRM in their work plans. UNISDR’s status this process. The Regional Economic Commu- report (2014) describes DRM-related activities nities are also in the process of updating their undertaken by several regional institutions and 58 The AU recognizes the following eight RECs: Arab Maghreb Union (UMA); Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA); Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD); East African Commu- nity (EAC); Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS); Economic Community of West Afri- can States (ECOWAS); Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD); and Southern Africa Devel- opment Community (SADC). 59 RECs not formally recognized by the AU: International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR); Indian Ocean Commission (IOC); and League of Arab States (LAS). 26 Regional Policies Help Shape Resilient Development programs,60 most of which provide data manage- ment or weather, climate and early warning servic- es. The RECs were associated in the formulation of the African Regional Strategy and ePOA, and continue to support the alignment of sub-region- al plans of action with the Sendai Framework. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sets an example in regional collaboration by leading the policy dialogue on DRM. Through its technical centers, and in col- laboration with the Permanent Interstate Com- mittee on Drought Prevention (CILSS), it pro- vides leadership to several regional initiatives. In spite of regional, sub-regional and national level interventions, the prevention and mitigation of, and preparedness for natural hazards remains an emerging issue in the policy agenda of many African governments. DRM and climate change adaptation are only partially translated into pol- icy frameworks, and investments in ex-ante risk reduction measures are not yet fully mainstreamed. Community leaders receive training for the newly implemented early warning system in the White Volta region of Ghana. Regional cooperation is critical not only at the policy level but also at the technical level. This is particularly crucial for the development of cooperation among hydro-meteorological ser- harmonized risk evaluation products, early warn- vices significantly benefits the quality of weath- ing systems, pooling of insurance and risk trans- er and hydrological forecasting and production fer products and for the management of water-, of early warning services, particularly for trans- weather- and climate-related risks. Regional coor- boundary hazards and entities (such as drought, dination and cooperation ensure direct and indi- cyclones and trans-boundary river basins). rect benefits of quality and economies of scale, Regional climate centers play a pivotal resulting from leveraging of expertise, capacity, role by providing weather and climate infor- resources and information and from integrat- mation. Improved access to global and region- ing international, regional and national centers al products strengthens member states’ national for data analysis and interpretation. Regional forecasting and early warning information. These 60The regional organizations include: The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Africa Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD); Agro Meteorol- ogy and Operational Hydrology (AGRHYMET)/(CILSS); The International Commission of Congo-Ouban- gui – Sangha Basin (CICOS); ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network (ECOWARN); IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC); Regional Climate Output Forum (RCOF); Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD); The Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS). 27 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 technical centers include: IGAD Climate Predic- Congo and Volta Rivers and Lake Chad as the tion and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in Nai- region’s primary arteries of growth. Many of robi, Kenya; SADC Drought Monitoring Centre the respective river basin organizations, such (SADC DMC) in Gaborone, Botswana; CILSS- as the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), AGRHYMET Regional Centre in Niamey, Niger; Senegal River Basin Authority (OMVS), Volta and African Centre of Meteorological Applica- Basin Authority (VBA), Niger Basin Authority tions for Development (ACMAD), also in Nia- (NBA), Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC), mey. In recent years, these centers have closely Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Lake Tanganyika linked their programs to DRM. Authority, etc., are actively working toward bet- River Basin Organizations are taking on ter managing floods along these waterways and an increasingly important role. Africa has the partnering with the World Bank. This is done largest number of trans-boundary river basins in in partnership with the Cooperation in Inter- the world, with the Nile, Niger, Senegal, Zambezi, national Waters in Africa (CIWA) Trust Fund. 28 Chapter 3 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments The World Bank’s Africa Strategy61 establishes operations, and in non-lending technical assis- ‘vulnerability and resilience’ as one of the three tance, knowledge sharing, capacity building and overarching themes of the strategy. It rightly partnerships. This chapter presents an overview notes that ‘Natural disasters (…) are predicted of such engagements. to increase in the future as the effects of climate change begin to be felt. Climate change is likely to TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE AND 3.1  lead not only to increases in variability in weath- CAPACITY BUILDING TO er, but also to slow-onset changes such as warm- MAINSTREAM DRM IN er temperatures, rising sea levels and desertifica- DEVELOPMENT POLICIES tion, all of which are likely to lead to increased chronic poverty and vulnerability.’ The Strategy DRM is frequently integrated in country dia- document commits the World Bank to support logue, including Systematic Country Diag- ‘Responses to the adverse impact of future climate nostics and Country Partnership Frameworks change are diverse, and start with enhancing the (CPFs). A survey undertaken in 2012 showed that ability of African countries to cope with current 11 out of 30 Country Partnership Strategies (CPS) variability. This includes better hydro-meteoro- in the region identify DRM as a strategic pillar or logical services, establishment of early warning priority. For example, the current Ethiopia CPS systems, adoption of preparedness and emer- has “Enhancing resilience and reducing vulner- gency response plans, upgrading and enforcing abilities by improving delivery of social servic- building codes and infrastructure standards, and es and developing a comprehensive approach to testing or scaling up risk sharing or risk pooling social protection and risk management” as a goal. mechanisms (including insurance, contingent 45 Technical Assistance (TA) and capacity financing, catastrophe-related bonds)’. building programs support 22 African coun- World Bank support for DRM in Afri- tries to support forward-looking DRM. Figure ca has consistently grown in the last 4 years. 10 shows a map with the existing TA and capac- This can be seen both in the portfolio of invest- ity building portfolio in Africa. This stretches ment project financing and development policy across four main areas: 61 Africa’s Future and the World Bank’s role in it, World Bank, 2011. 29 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Figure 10:  Africa region DRM portfolio by funding source Policy development and institutional developing risk financing solutions; and rapid strengthening post-disaster needs assessments. This work is Risk information mainly financed by GFDRR through ACP-EU Preparedness and early warning NDRR and ADRF, Japan DRM, and other pro- Risk financing grams. These engagements often leverage large investments in risk reduction. The programs include a wide range of activ- ities such as strategy formulation; policy devel- Policy development and institutional opment; institutional capacity building; quanti- strengthening tative probabilistic risk assessments; feasibility DRM specialists strategically housed in coun- studies for disaster forecasting and early warn- try offices are instrumental in supporting gov- ing systems; modernizing hydro-meteorological ernments to integrate DRM in their develop- services; supporting safer school construction; ment planning and policies. Such engagements 30 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments have led to robust country dialogue on DRM hazard potential, especially inland flood- and helped build capacity, such as: ing. This initiated a $55.5 million flood risk In Malawi, the World Bank team supported reduction project benefiting 1.2 million peo- the government on key DRM initiatives in ple in two suburbs of Dakar. social protection and water resources sec- In Mozambique, the Safer Schools Program tors. This has resulted in improvements in supported a comprehensive hazard map- forecasting and risk modeling, leading to ping exercise, a vulnerability assessment of better irrigation and early warning for flood more than 600 schools, technical seminars and drought management. on construction and administration, as well Ethiopia government adopted a DRM pol- as the development of a technical manual, icy in 2013, which prioritizes disaster pre- for safer school construction. paredness and establishes a multi-sector In Madagascar, the World Bank supported approach for resilient development. The the Government in developing new building World Bank has supported this major shift codes in 2010. This led to the development from a reactive to a proactive approach to of transport and irrigation infrastructure DRM in Ethiopia. Furthermore, it is help- safety code. These codes significantly reduce ing the implementation of the DRM – Stra- the vulnerability of the built environment. tegic Programme and Investment Framework under the newly constituted DRM Coor- In parallel to the technical work, advocacy dination Commission under the Prime and building communities of practice is a central Minister. part of this engagement. As part of the ACP-EU financed Africa Disaster Risk Finance (ADRF) Risk Information initiative, the Understanding Risk & Finance Better understanding of disaster risk is a pri- Conference in Addis Ababa (2015) convened over ority. World Bank supports disaster risk and 500 experts and decision makers from African vulnerability assessments to understand the governments, civil society, academia, develop- impacts of floods, coastal erosion, drought, land- ment partners and the private sector. This net- slides, cyclones, volcanos and earthquakes. This work of practitioners allows opportunities for information guides the design and scope of risk peer learning and knowledge exchanges on inno- reduction and preparedness investments. vative approaches to managing risk in Africa. In southeastern Nigeria, in response to land- Preparedness and early warning slides and heavy gully erosion in Septem- Multi-hazard early warning systems and pre- ber 2011, the Bank’s Africa DRM Team con- paredness have proven to be effective in sav- ducted a joint technical mission to assess ing lives and reducing the economic impacts of impacts and formulate the terms of refer- disasters. Early Warning Systems require reli- ence for a dedicated erosion and landslide able hydro-meteorological information, effec- hazard risk assessment strategy. tive contingency plans and risk communica- In Senegal, a study highlighted that almost tion with affected communities. The World Bank 40 percent of the population in peri-urban supports countries in establishing and strength- Dakar has settled in areas with significant ening early warning systems and preparedness. 31 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 In Malawi, an analysis of the country’s disas- for rapid onset hazards—such as river and ter risk, notably the Lower Shire flooding flash floods, wind and landslides, beyond informed a hydrological and socio-econom- food security monitoring and prepared- ic profile. This helped develop a national ness related to drought and locust hazards. risk-modeling framework to better quantify disaster risks and provide scientific outputs Risk financing to decision makers. This gave a head start A number of regional and national initiatives in to the 2015 PDNA and allowed a quicker disaster risk financing and insurance are under- response. The framework mainstreams DRM way. Country notes have been produced for Ethi- in national development strategies and cre- opia, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal and Togo. ates a culture of emergency preparedness. In addition, technical dialogue has been initiat- In Ghana, a state-of-the-art flood forecast- ed with a number of countries to improve finan- ing and early warning system was set up as cial protection against disasters. Diagnostic work part of the Government’s push for better has been done to identify scope for public-private management of floods, after the devastat- sector partnerships for agricultural insurance in ing flooding in the White Volta River Basin Kenya and Senegal. IFC’s Global Index Insurance in October 2010. By combining meteoro- Facility is initiating a new program for Africa that logical and river modeling data, the system will work through local insurance companies to now operates as an early warning tool, gen- engage financial institutions, input suppliers and erating vital information for the authorities. agribusiness to help increase insurance coverage Several organizations in Africa manage plat- and access to credit for smallholder farmers. At the forms for exchanging disaster-related infor- regional level, the African Risk Capacity Insurance mation (CILSS, ECOWAS,ACMAD and river Company Limited, which has a complementary basin authorities). However, there is a need relationship with the World Bank, launched the to expand the potential for early warning first pooled insurance cover for drought in 2015. Indian Ocean Islands Risk Assessment & Risk Financing Initiative Box 5:  The Indian Ocean Islands (IOIs) are working to reduce their vulnerability to natural disasters in line with the Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the Program of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 2005-2015. To complement this, the Bank’s Africa DRM Team, GFDRR and the DRFI Program are working jointly with the Indian Ocean Com- mission (IOC) to develop a detailed risk assessment plat- form—similar to the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI)—to guide risk manage- ment interventions, including financial protection strate- gies. The work to better understand the risks faced by the Indian Ocean Island (IOI) states will be used as a basis for providing technical assistance and capacity building on risk financing under the Africa Disaster Risk Financing Initia- tive. The hazard, exposure and risk information will be complementary to other data sources such as the Africa Risk Capacity’s (ARC) tropical cyclone modelling. Data produced by the initiative will also be used for other DRM applica- tions, such as preparedness and prioritizing of risk reduction investments. 32 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments Disaster risk financing and insurance is a 1. Post-disaster reconstruction – 100 per- new area of interest in Africa. There are many cent of the project amount contributes to options for development of financial resilience. DRM/CCA, with a focus on post-disaster These include strategies for financial protection reconstruction. at the sovereign level to help governments meet 2. Disaster prevention/preparedness/climate their contingent liabilities; the promotion of catas- adaptation – 100 percent of the project trophe risk insurance markets for businesses and amount contributes to DRM/CCA, with households; and the integration of risk financ- no connection to the occurrence of a spe- ing and insurance principles in social protection cific disaster. schemes to provide a crucial financial buffer to 3. Other operations with high focus on the poorest households through rapidly scalable resilience – Between 25 and 80 percent safety nets. The development of risk information of the project amount contributes to and tools for financial risk analytics is crucial to DRM/CCA. enable evidence-based decision-making by coun- 4. Other operations with limited focus on tries. African countries have identified this as a resilience – Between five and 20 percent of priority area to build financial resilience. project amount contributes to DRM/CCA. 5. Other operations with minimal contribu- 3.2 FINANCING LONG-TERM tion to disaster resilience – Between 0 to DISASTER RESILIENCE 2 percent of project amount contributes to DRM/CCA. An analysis of the Africa portfolio identified a total of $5.8 billion in terms of direct contri- Overall, 16 active investment projects out of butions and co-benefits to DRM/CCA, which 565 fall into category 1 and 2. The highest con- represents 10.8 percent of the total portfolio. tribution to DRM/CCA is category 3, namely For the purpose of the analysis, the project port- “Other operations with high focus on resilience,” folio is classified into five categories. with a total of $2.7 billion. Projects in categories 3, 4 and 5 provide significant support to DRM/ Figure 11:  Africa portfolio - DRM/CCA Contribution by category ($ million; Jan 4th, 2016) 14,000 (out of 35 billion) 12,000 10,000 953 8,000 million 6,000 2.7 billion 4,000 620 980 553 2,000 million million million 0 1. Post-disaster 2. Disaster prevention / 3. Other operation 4. Other operation 5. Other operation with reconstruction preparedness / with high focus influencing resilience minor or no direct climate adaptation on resilience as a side effect contribution to resilience 33 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program DRM/CCA contributions by Global Figure 12:  (PSNP) improves food security for poor Practice (AFR portfolio, Jan 4th, 2016) people and increases their resilience in the face of economic and climate-related cri- Water Agriculture ses. In addition to cushioning vulnerable 15% 22% Urban, Rural & Social rural households during crises such as the Development 12% Education drought in the Horn of Africa, PSNP pro- 1% vides productive assets for developing sus- Energy & Extractives tainable livelihoods. Transport & ICT 3% 7% The Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Pro- Environment & Natural Resources gram supports activities in Burkina Faso, Social Protection 15% & Labor Health, Nutrition & Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Sene- 23% Macro Economic & Population gal to help poor and vulnerable households Fiscal Management 1% 1% reduce the impact of climatic change and other shocks, build household and commu- nity resilience and foster access to income- earning opportunities. CCA—these were not included in previous anal- yses of DRM engagements such as IEG-MIGA Agriculture (2006), IEG 2012 and the Sendai Report (2012). In Africa, agriculture is the most important sector The DRM/CCA contributions are provid- requiring investments and technical assistance ed through a range of engagements in different to overcome drought, floods and pest-induced sectors, mainly: (i) social protection; (ii) agricul- impacts on livestock and crop production: ture; (iii) water; (iv) social, urban, rural and resil- ience; and (v) environment and natural resource In the Horn of Africa, the Regional Pasto- management. These sectors together provide ral Livelihoods Resilience Project contains 88 percent of the contributions to DRM/CCA. a component that focuses on drought risk The sectoral co-benefits shows a high degree mitigation. of mainstreaming DRM in World Bank opera- In Tanzania, the Accelerated Food Securi- tions in Africa. An illustrative overview of multi- ty Project improves farmers’ access to crit- sector engagement on DRM activities is as follows: ical agricultural inputs, providing custom- ized assistance to enhance the resilience of Social protection vulnerable households, while coping with Social protection programs support building the inter-annual climate variability (flood safety nets for the vulnerable populations such and drought). as rural, drought-affected and chronically food In Zambia, investments in the Irrigation insecure communities. One of the largest DRM- Development and Support Project bring the related World Bank projects is the Productive private sector, the Government and farm- Safety Net Project in Ethiopia, which substan- ers’ cooperative together to enable critical tially reduced the number of drought-affected investments to secure irrigated production population through early action. and counter recurrent flooding and droughts. 34 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments The Niger Community Action Project for in strategies to address land degradation and Climate Resilience is a combination of small erosion, or stabilizing landslide-affected slopes investments managed by local authorities has long-term financial benefits. to mainstream climate resilience in sectoral policies and development planning for the Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Manage- poor and vulnerable households with adap- ment Project aims to reduce vulnerability tive social protection. to soil erosion in targeted sub-watersheds. The multi-sector project finances activi- Water ties to prevent and reverse land degrada- Better flood management and water security tion and focuses on gully erosion sites that requires substantial investments in structural threaten infrastructure and livelihoods. and non-structural measures, such as: In Togo, the Integrated Disaster and Land Management Project, aims to strengthen Cameroon Flood Emergency Project financ- the institutional capacity of institutions to es the rehabilitation of key hydraulic infra- manage the risk of flooding and land deg- structure and improves disaster prepared- radation in rural and urban areas. It focuses ness in target areas. on sustainable land management in specif- Kenya Water Security and Climate Resilience ic landscapes and climate vulnerable areas Project increases the availability and produc- throughout the country. tivity of irrigation waters and enhances the institutional framework for water security Urban and climate resilience. In addition, the proj- In the fastest urbanizing continent, urban infra- ect supports the national disaster response structure development and risk sensitive urban plan for the water sector. planning often lag behind. Notably, urban flood Malawi Shire River Basin Management risk management, and planned investments in Program finances disaster forecasting drainage systems should be a high priority along and risk modeling to improve flood and with building back better projects. drought risk management. The Malawi Floods Emergency Recovery Project (IDA Niger DRM and Urban Development Proj- CRW) supports the sustainable restoration ect aims to improve Niger’s resilience to of agricultural livelihoods, enhanced food natural hazards by strengthening Govern- security, resilient reconstruction of crit- ment capacity for urban development and ical public infrastructure, restoration of DRM as well as strengthening its ability to services, and investments in longer-term respond effectively to a crisis or emergency. risk reduction. In Benin, the Emergency Urban Environ- ment Project contains a flood management Environment and natural resource and disaster preparedness component. management In the Central African Republic, the Emer- Climate variability, land degradation and inad- gency Urban Infrastructure Rehabilitation equate watershed management are some of the and Maintenance Project has a component main drivers of disaster risk in Africa. Investing that focuses on flood risk mitigation. 35 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 The Senegal Storm Water Management Proj- complement the country’s risk financing ect addresses chronic flooding in the areas strategy by establishing a contingent line of around Dakar, with a clear identification of credit that can be triggered by a disaster event. underlying risk and investments to improve In the Comoros, a Development Policy the existing drainage infrastructure. Benefi- Operation (DPO) with DRM policy triggers ciaries are directly engaged in the monitor- will mainstream DRM into national policy. ing and maintenance of the infrastructure. In light of the IDA17 climate and DRM Education agenda, the World Bank will strengthen strat- The education sector is crucial for building resil- egies, provide non-lending technical assistance ience at all levels, notably by setting standards for to strengthen institutions, increase lending and safer schools which can resist floods and cyclones look into options for retrofitting existing projects and by raising awareness for DRM and implement- and portfolios. There will also be possibilities for ing education programs for all levels of society. adding contingent components or utilizing the immediate response mechanism in eligible cases. The Mozambique Safer Schools Initiative developed guidelines to build schools with RAPID RESPONSE TO 3.3  resilient building codes. This will make EMERGENCIES schools resilient to cyclones, floods and earthquakes. The post-disaster assessments, The World Bank plays a key role in support- field missions, international guidelines and ing countries in disaster recovery and recon- blueprints have helped integrate structural struction. In the aftermath of disasters, the and non-structural risk reduction elements World Bank provides technical support and in the design and community awareness. capacity building for PDNAs, which often leads to larger World Bank investment projects for Poverty reduction and economic reconstruction and long-term recovery. management The World Bank supports the assessment Strengthening countries’ fiscal and economic of disaster impacts using the PDNA method- policies is an important element of the World ology.62 These assessments help in i) quantifying Bank’s country dialogue. Poverty reduction and the economic and social impact of the disaster economic management projects have contribut- events; and ii) preparing a roadmap for forward- ed to mainstreaming DRM in national and sec- looking recovery, reconstruction and resilience tor policies, addressing risk financing strategies programs in the affected countries. This builds and covering contingent liabilities. upon the 2008 Joint Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning between the In Seychelles, the DRM Development Poli- World Bank, United Nations Development Pro- cy Loan (DPL) with a Catastrophe Deferred gramme (UNDP) and the European Union to Drawdown Option (CAT DDO) will improve the coordination of support offered to There are different types of post-disaster assessments based on the scope, methodology used and partners. 62 For example, DaLA is Damages and Loss Assessment and JDLNA is Joint Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment. 36 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments Table 2: An overview of damages and losses from recent PDNAs in Africa Recovery/ People Reconstruction affected Damages Losses Needs Event Country Year (Thousands) ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) Cyclone Madagascar 2008 350 174 159 155 Floods Namibia 2009 350 136 78 622 Floods Burkina Faso 2009 150 102 33 266 Floods Senegal 2009 485 56 48 204 Floods CAR 2009 15 6 2.5 36 Earthquake Malawi 2010 18 5 1 — Floods Benin 2010 156 162 100 — Floods Togo 2010 83 28 7 44 Heavy rains Lesotho 2011 580 28 26 94 Drought Kenya *2008–11 **3700 *8 *11300 *1770 Drought*** Uganda ****2010–11 **809 45 1299 173 Floods Comoros 2012 150 19 - — Floods Nigeria 2012 3891 9500 7300 7100 Floods Seychelles 2013 5 5 3 30 Floods Sudan 2013 340 134 - — Floods Burundi 2014 20 4 - 107 Floods and Mozambique 2015 326 371 - 490 storms Floods and Madagascar 2015 300 119 - 279 storms Floods Malawi 2015 1101 286 48 494 * This assessment covered the four-year period 2008–11; ** in August 2011; *** Rainfall variability assessment; **** This report covered the two-year period 2010–11; governments affected by crises. In recent years, In response to the 2011 Horn of Africa drought the World Bank’s Africa DRM Team has facilitat- crisis, the World Bank committed $1.8 bil- ed just-in-time assessments, full-length PDNAs lion to support safety nets and food securi- and smaller fact-finding assessments and train- ty. A 6–12 month initial phase of immediate ings in response to many disasters affecting Afri- relief focused on response-type approaches ca. Table 2 provides an overview of the findings to support food and nutrition, water supply, of a number of recent PDNAs. sanitation and health. This initial phase was World Bank has supported many post- supplemented with $190 million from the disaster investment operations informed by World Bank Crisis Response Window. Rapid Assessments and PDNAs across Afri- In response to the 2009 floods in the Cen- ca. Some examples are as follows: tral African Republic, $5 million additional 37 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 financing was made available from an establishment of a flood risk early warn- exceptional natural disaster-related alloca- ing system. tion to supplement the Emergency Urban Following the March 2012 floods in Mad- Infrastructure Rehabilitation and Mainte- agascar, transport and community infra- nance Project. The project includes invest- structure were rehabilitated using a build ments in water supply, flood reduction and back better approach. This was carried out mitigation, solid waste management and in compliance with the climate resilience urban roads, including TA for institution- norms for transport infrastructure developed al strengthening. by the government with GFDRR support. Additional financing for Malawi under the Malawi Social Action Fund (MASAF) The World Bank’s Africa DRM Group has to support 15 disaster-affected districts established an Emergency Monitoring and Advi- through: (i) increasing the existing pub- sory System (EMAS) to coordinate rapid Bank- lic works program; and (ii) reconstructing wide emergency response (Box 6). and retrofitting earthquake-damaged edu- cational infrastructure. For the educational FOSTERING KNOWLEDGE AND 3.4  reconstruction component, $4 million was INNOVATION added to the MASAF project. In Benin, a $50 million IDA Emergency Technology is a driver of new Urban Environment Project builds upon development solutions for DRM: the recommendations of a 2010 PDNA and Mobile phones: Africa is the fastest grow- supports the rehabilitation of the drainage ing market in mobile phone subscriptions at network in flood-affected Cotonou and the over 30 percent a year and was expected to Africa DRM Group Emergency Monitoring and Advisory System Box 6:  In response to a need for a comprehensive advisory system that reaches not only key decision makers in the management structure of the World Bank but also country-based staff and Bank security operation, the Afri- ca DRM Group established the Emergency Monitoring and Advisory System (EMAS) in August 2013. The main objective of EMAS is to provide an effective emergen- cy monitoring system, which informs all relevant Bank Disaster Advisories by Hazard Type (%) staff of recent, imminent or ongoing disasters in Africa. 1 10 EMAS functions using a network of 58 country-based 4 DRM focal persons located in 48 countries through- out Africa. Two types of advisories are issued: i) an 10 event warning for imminent disasters such as floods or cyclones plus slow-onset disasters such as drought; and ii) a situation update during and following a disas- 75 ter which includes the number of people affected, dam- age overview, government response, media reports and anticipated Bank actions, if any. Since 2013, about 100 Flood Locusts Drought Tropical Storm Cyclone advisories have been issued. 38 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments reach one billion subscriptions by 2015.63 Just World Bank and its partners have support- as the reach and affordability of the mobile ed an online platform to ensure that the data phone is growing fast, so are its capabilities from a number of past or ongoing projects and the solutions it can bring about. In Mad- is maintained in an online platform. This agascar, for example, the National Disaster ensures that information remains accessible Management office not only sends out an and useful to the Government, public and advance warning ahead of a cyclone, but other key stakeholders. When open source also collects post-disaster information via data is combined with geospatial maps, a SMS from those affected. This helps a better clearer picture emerges of areas most at risk and more accurate understanding of dam- and helps planners at the Government and ages and losses. This two-way communi- community level better prepare for disasters. cation via mobile devices is also known as Innovative partnerships: Leveraging new crowdsourcing. A similar system is being technology will help make risk data avail- established in Mozambique. It also directs able to support decision-making for build- community-driven charitable aid in times ing resilience. “Open Data for the Horn” of crisis. During the 2013 floods in Sudan, a is a data sharing platform initiated by the local charity used crowdsourcing to channel Regional Center for Mapping of Resources aid to the most affected areas within Khar- for Development (RCMRD) together with the toum (where there is a mobile Internet con- World Food Programme (WFP), UN OCHA, nection). This resulted in quick, communi- NASA SERVIR, and ITHACA.65 This plat- ty-based assistance for those most in need. form helped coordinate the response to the Geospatial mapping and open source: The Horn of Africa drought (2011) by providing past five years have witnessed a geospa- free access to over 160 datasets. In Mozam- tial revolution of freely available data such bique, LIDAR (laser light directed radar) sta- as Google and Open Street Map, plus new tions have been constructed as part of the standards for web hosting and the ease of World Bank-supported DRM project. These automated geocoding. This is supported by stations allow for the production of high- crowdsourcing using smart phones with nav- resolution maps of areas exposed to haz- igation technology (GPS). Out of one bil- ards, especially floods. The maps are used to lion mobile phone subscriptions in Africa, predict flooding and assist local authorities 100 million users have smart phones, a num- in better planning for urban development. ber that is expected to double by 2017.64 The World Bank has taken an open data initia- Technology supports innovative risk tive to promote transparency, accountability assessment across the region. The process of and informed decision-making. For exam- disaster risk evaluation in developing countries ple, in the Malawi Shire River Basin Man- requires investments in the collection, analy- agement Program, the Government, the sis and dissemination of both geophysical and 63 Source: GSMA 2014. 64 For more information, see Jidenma (2013). 65 For more information, see http://horn.rcmrd.org. 39 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Box 7: Innovations in Risk Assessment and Risk Communication New technologies support new approaches in data collection and sharing: Crowdsourcing – collecting data from the citizens – can be a powerful tool to serve risk assessment. Exam- ples of crowdsourcing risk information can be seen in ushahidi, crisis mappers and crowd-sourcing networks. Community mapping engages local residents with free or low-cost tools and collaborative mapping platforms such as Open Street Map. Successful examples include Humanitarian Open Street Map, Map Kibera and Ramani Tandale, which utilize local user input to map communities. Remote Sensing Technologies – Rapid and comprehensive satellite and drone-based mapping is increasingly affordable and available for both ex ante and post-disaster DRM usage. In-situ Monitoring – Sensors in water points, rivers and weather stations now report critical environmental data via Internet and/or mobile technology (such as SMS or GPRS), leading to cost reductions and increased efficiency in collecting in-situ real-time data for monitoring and analysis of hazards and critical infrastructure. socioeconomic data. New technological inno- portfolio. The program supports African coun- vations are assisting in collecting such data in tries and RECs in a wide range of areas, such as a more efficient manner (Box 7). DRM policies, developing risk assessment tools, operational early warning systems, emergency pre- 3.5 BUILDING EFFECTIVE paredness and response capacities, post-disaster PARTNERSHIPS assessments, recovery planning and investments. In December 2013, based on the outcomes of the The World Bank Africa DRM Group has estab- program, the EU approved an additional contri- lished a broad network of global and regional bution of $55 million for strengthening opera- partnerships. These help deliver sustainable solu- tional capacities of African RECs and countries’ tions for DRM across the continent, while fos- to incorporate risk information in decision-mak- tering regional collaboration, facilitating access ing and financial resilience strategies against nat- to global knowledge and accessing funding from ural hazards, in the framework of the ACP-EU global programs. Strong partnerships with Afri- “Building Disaster Resilience to Natural Hazards ca’s regional organizations, the United Nations in Sub-Saharan Africa” Program. (UN), the Africa Caribbean Pacific (ACP) Group By working with UN agencies, the of States, the European Union (EU) and Japan World Bank supports many initiatives on a build the foundations for engagement in Africa. continental, regional and national scale. Col- laboration with the UN Office for Disaster Risk International partnerships Reduction (UNISDR) supports high-level politi- The ACP – EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduc- cal advocacy processes such as the Africa Region- tion Program finances significant work in the al Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. The region. It was launched in 2011 with an EU-fund- World Bank partners with the Food and Agricul- ed grant of $ 75.6 million, managed by GFDRR. tural Organization (FAO) and WFP to respond As of October 2015, it has supported 38 projects to drought and food insecurity in Africa. For in Africa, comprising more than half of its total example, it partnered with FAO to implement 40 World Bank Support to Manage Disaster Risks and Make Strong Investments a $9 million grant to support drought recovery In eastern Africa, the World Bank has collabo- in Somalia. Together with WFP, the Livelihoods, rated with the Inter-Governmental Authority on Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) sys- Development (IGAD) since the 2011 drought in tem was developed allowing a better forecast of the Horn. IGAD has developed a regional strate- food insecurity. Together with UN-HABITAT, gy to strengthen sub-regional disaster prepared- the Disaster Mitigation and Sustainable Recov- ness and response capabilities, incorporating a ery Centre for Southern Africa (DIMSUR) – co- regional program for DRM and providing lead- funded by the ACP-EU NDRR Program, was ership on drought management, resilience and launched in June 2013 supporting the national growth. The World Bank and African Develop- authorities of Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique ment Bank (AfDB) are working jointly on the and the Comoros in knowledge sharing and capac- Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) ity development for increased urban resilience. projects, one of the main programs under the Cli- The World Meteorological Organization mate Investment Funds, with Zambia, Mozam- is World Bank’s program partner in scaling up bique and Niger as focus countries. support to strengthen regional and national hydro-meteorological services. The WMO, with 3.6  LESSONS LEARNED its members and regional centers, (and the Afri- can Development Bank’s Clim-Dev Initiative of Important lessons have emerged from the the African Union) are program partners in sup- World Bank’s work on DRM in Africa: porting the strengthening of national and regional hydro-meteorological services in Africa. The initia- 1. Managing disaster risk is crucial to pro- tive is helping to improve weather and climate data tect and improve livelihoods, save lives collection and global models, improve early warn- and ultimately reduce poverty. The poor- ing systems, build capacity and strengthen institu- est are most vulnerable to disasters, which tional frameworks for more effective climate and can destroy livelihoods and even push peo- disaster resilience of communities and economies. ple into poverty. In addition, investments too often do not take into account disaster Regional partnerships risk, leaving development gains vulnera- The World Bank engages in a wide range of ble to natural hazards. For example, infra- regional partnerships to advance DRM in structure and buildings are largely not built Africa. The African Union and its RECs play to resilient standards. Limited or obsolete an important role in setting regional policies on water management infrastructure ampli- DRM and supporting national governments to fies drought and flood risk. establish coherent DRM policies and coordinat- 2. Enhanced understanding of underly- ing platforms. In southern Africa, the World Bank ing risk factors is crucial to inform evi- collaborates closely with the Indian Ocean Com- dence-based decision making at all lev- mission (IOC) and the Southern African Devel- els. Information on disaster risk is not opment Community (SADC). Through SADC, readily available to most communities the World Bank supports the regional agenda and decision makers in Africa, and there on resilience in the water sector, e.g. through a is relatively little public awareness and regional program on ground water management. participation in disaster prevention and 41 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 response. Similarly, effective and timely 5. Post disaster engagement presents an weather and impact forecasts and early opportunity for engagement on risk reduc- warnings from real-time hydro-meteo- tion. The aftermath of a disaster can bring rological systems rarely exist. There is a an increase in resources and political will for lack of quantitative assessments of risks to reducing existing risk, preventing future risk, guide investments and policies. This gap and providing opportunities to build back should be addressed over time. better and systematic DRM engagements. 3. Strong government capacity and owner- 6. Regional leadership and integration ship is critical. By investing in technical are crucial to effectively reduce disaster assistance and capacity building for DRM, and climate risks in Africa. Institutions the World Bank plays an important role in across the continent are often focused on building resilience in Africa. Establishing response, not prevention. Where dedicat- effective DRM systems requires systemat- ed institutions exist, they often have lim- ic efforts to integrate proactive approaches ited capacity for risk reduction, coordina- in public policies and investment. Further tion and implementation. Administrative investments are needed to build the evidence, structures are also constrained by inad- and for monitoring and technical ground- equate technical and financial support. work, such as collecting necessary risk infor- Strong regional leadership and capaci- mation and developing risk-financing strat- ty can support national institutions over- egies. Moreover, this needs to be linked to come these challenges. large-scale investments in risk reduction. 7. Early warning has proven to be a cost 4. Countries are increasingly looking at the effective technique for reducing disaster financial impacts of disasters on their bud- impacts. In many cases, when comparing gets and populations. Disaster risk financ- structural and non-structural measures, ing and insurance is largely in its infancy such as dykes and levees with early warn- throughout the continent with its benefits ing systems, non-structural measures have not yet fully utilized. But interest is strong proven to be more effective and cost effi- and countries are looking for technical sup- cient. Building end-to-end systems with port to strengthen the resilience of the poor- targeted and reliable hydro-meteorologi- est and most vulnerable through the appli- cal forecasts, a common operating platform cation of insurance principles and tools for and ensuring last-mile connectivity to the social protection programs. vulnerable population is essential. 42 Chapter 4 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward This strategic framework is an important step in framework. The framework is based on the the implementation of the World Bank’s strong World Bank’s experience of working with coun- commitment to DRM as a crucial element for tries to systematically improve their capacity to eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared respond to and manage disaster risks. It has five prosperity in Africa, as formulated in the World pillars: (i) risk identification; (ii) risk reduction; Bank Strategy for Africa, Africa’s Future and the (iii) preparedness; (iv) financial protection; and World Bank’s Support to It,66 the Sendai Report,67 (v) resilient recovery (Figure 13). Turn Down the Heat,68 as well as the 2014 World Development Report, Managing Risk for Devel- Risk Identification: Understanding the opment. The challenge is now to put these com- risks faced by governments and commu- mitments into practice by providing effective nities is the first step in managing risks. By technical advice and sustainable investments quantifying risks and the potential nega- in vulnerable countries. tive impacts of natural hazards, risk assess- The World Bank’s engagement in DRM ments can help governments, communities spans across five pillars of action, aligned with and individuals make informed decisions. the guiding principles of global frameworks. The Risk Reduction: Accurate disaster risk five-pillared framework is described below, fol- information can shape development strat- lowed by specific lines of operation and prior- egies and programs to reduce risk in the ity areas for engagement in the next four year short and long term, using structural and period to increase the resilience of the Africa non-structural measures. This information region to climate and disaster risks. also helps develop training modules to build national and local DRM expertise. COUNTRY DISASTER RISK 4.1  Preparedness: Not all risk can be prevent- MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK ed, making adequate preparedness essential. Effective early warning systems, adequate- To guide country engagements and invest- ly prepared crisis management structures ments in building resilience, the World Bank and contingency plans are some of the Africa region follows a comprehensive DRM 66 World Bank, 2011. 67 Development Committee Background Paper, Annual Meetings, Tokyo, 2012. 68 World Bank series, 2012, 2013, 2014. 43 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 World Bank/GFDRR DRM Framework Figure 13:  INSTITUTIONAL, POLITICAL, NORMATIVE, Pillar 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION Risk assessments and risk communication Structural and non-structural measures; e.g. Infrastructure, Pillar 2: RISK REDUCTION land use planning, policies and regulation FINANCIAL CONTEXT Early warning systems; support of emergency measure; Pillar 3: PREPAREDNESS contingency planning Assessing and reducing contingent liabilities; budget appropriation Pillar 4: FINANCIAL PROTECTION and execution; ex-ante and ex-post financing instruments Resilient recovery and reconstruction policies; ex-ante Pillar 5: RESILIENT RECONSTRUCTION design of institutional structures most cost-effective measures to save lives actionable items along the lines of operation.. In and protect livelihoods. cooperation with governments and development Financial Protection: Financial protection partners and in line with the World Bank’s strategy can help protect governments, businesses for Africa, the World Bank will advance the DRM and households against the economic bur- agenda along the five pillared framework in Afri- dens of disasters. Governments can adopt ca around the following three lines of operation: disaster risk financing strategies to increase financial response capacity in the aftermath 1. Investments: Systematically investing in of a disaster while protecting long-term fis- long-term DRM for poverty reduction and cal balance. Access to insurance can increase climate adaptation, and continue assisting financial resilience in the society as a whole. countries to respond to emergencies. Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction: 2. Knowledge: Enhancing the understand- Effective recovery is key to restore the liveli- ing and ability to manage disaster and cli- hoods of affected communities and rebuild mate risks, utilizing early warnings for early damaged infrastructure to a higher quali- action, and enabling evidence-based deci- ty and standard. In addition, the aftermath sion-making through technical assistance of a disaster is often the starting point for and capacity building. a long-term engagement on vulnerabili- 3. Partnerships: Fostering partnerships at the ty reduction. World Bank – Advancing the global, regional, national and local levels with DRM Agenda in Africa. governments, development partners, academia, private sector and civil society to promote 4.2 OPERATIONALIZING THE and advance the DRM agenda across Africa. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK Inter-linkages will be made across the three Operationalizing the strategic framework requires lines of operation to ensure that various activities the five pillars of action to be translated into are working in tandem and building upon each 44 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward other. For example, activities under Knowledge Enhancing National and Local Level can serve as a catalyst for future Investments and Engagements leverage concerted action through Partnerships. Deepening Cooperation with Develop- Within these lines of operation, the frame- ment Partners work focuses on a set of specific priority areas that are presented below. These have been iden- Investments tified through consultation with governments In line with the global and regional policy frame- and development partners, and stem from the works, such as the Sendai Framework, the World current disaster risk context described in Chap- Bank will continue to broaden DRM invest- ter 1, regional priorities described in Chapter 2 ment operations beyond post-disaster emergen- and lessons learned and emerging trends for the cy response to ex-ante risk reduction measures. region discussed in Chapter 3. During the imple- Such investments will be integrated in long- mentation period of this strategic framework, term development planning to support poverty these priorities will be periodically reviewed and reduction and the boosting of shared prosperity. adjusted to country demand and emerging needs. In the Africa region, areas of focus will include: strengthening hydromet services, strengthening Investments financial resilience, building urban resilience, Modernizing Hydro-Meteorological Services mainstreaming DRM and CCA across sector Strengthening Financial Resilience investments and supporting sustainable recovery. Building Urban Resilience Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management Modernizing Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Adaptation (Hydromet) Services Supporting Sustainable Recovery The World Bank has started the rollout of the Regional Framework Program to Improve Knowledge Hydromet Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Enhancing the Understanding of Disas- Strengthening Climate and Disaster Resil- ter Risks ience” in partnership with the World Mete- Helping Countries on Risk Financing orological Organization (WMO) and the Strengthening Institutional Capacity and African Development Bank. Launched in Policy 2015, this framework program supports the Developing Investment Plans for Climate strengthening of hydromet services, early and Disaster Risk Management warning systems and community-level pre- Promoting Regional Cooperation for Disas- paredness activities in Africa. Its main objec- ter Risk Management tive is to equip countries with the infrastruc- Building Capacity to Respond and Recov- ture and capacity to provide timely, accurate er from Disasters and actionable weather, climate and hydro- logical forecasts and warnings. Partnerships The program consists of three main Leveraging Existing Partnership Platforms components, including: (i) strengthening Strengthening Collaboration with Region- National Meteorological and Hydrological al Economic Commissions Services (NMHSs); (ii) community focused 45 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 end-user services to build preparedness, and management. It will also facilitate open early warning and community awareness; data platforms and data sharing among the and (iii) knowledge and advisory servic- beneficiary countries to establish regional es. The component to strengthen NMHSs networks of hydromet services and prod- will include improved infrastructure, ser- ucts in line with the trans-boundary nature vice delivery, capacity building, strate- of weather and climate forecasting services. gy and management support, and policy- Strengthening Financial Resilience institutional reforms. Activities will include The World Bank will continue to support strengthening of hydromet information countries in the region to develop disaster management systems through institution- risk financing instruments and mechanisms, al strengthening and personnel training including (i) The Development Policy Loan programs; development and enforcement with a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown of quality controls and standards; opti- Option (Cat DDO)69 is a contingent cred- mizing and reinforcing physical hydromet it line that provides immediate liquidity to monitoring networks through appropriate IBRD member countries in the aftermath of instrumentation and ancillary infrastruc- a natural disaster; (ii) Contingent Emergen- ture; transmission, accessibility and man- cy Response components (CERC)70 in stan- agement of data support by IT; hydrologi- dard investment projects; (iii) IDA Crisis cal modeling, forecasting and early warning Response Window (CRW);71 and (iv) Imme- systems; and the development of hydromet diate Response Mechanism (IRM).72 These information products and services. The sec- arrangements enable countries to access ond component will focus on community- an immediate source of funding for rapid facing outputs and outcomes and include response in the aftermath of a natural disaster. building preparedness and response capac-  In Seychelles, the Disaster Risk Manage- ity, delivery of early warning, risk commu- ment Development Policy Loan with Cat nication and community risk mapping. DDO facilitated prior actions in two key Finally, the knowledge and advisory ser- policy areas to strengthen: (i) the regula- vices component will aim to link national, tory framework for DRM; and (ii) inte- regional and global hydromet centers, and gration of DRM into development plan- improve access to global and regional prod- ning and decision-making. The Cat DDO ucts and financing for project preparation drawdown trigger is a declaration of a 69 CAT-DDOs are Development Policy Loan (DPL) instruments that provide IBRD countries with contin- gent lines of credit that can be drawn upon in case of disaster. 70 A CERC is a zero-dollar component within a project that allows for existing funds to be quickly reallocat- ed to emergency recovery activities in the event of a disaster, thereby averting the need for time-consuming project restructuring (as the budget line, albeit empty, is already there). 71 CRW is a specific IDA funding window for concessional assistance for post-disaster recovery and recon- struction, which is additional to country allocations. 72 The IRM initiative encourages the introduction of Contingent Emergency Response Components (CERC) in all IDA operations. The IRM augments the resources that can be quickly mobilized for emergency response by allowing up to 5% of an undisbursed IDA portfolio in an affected country to be channeled through the CERC. 46 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward state of emergency resulting from a nat- the Malawi Floods Emergency Recov- ural disaster, and can provide immediate ery Project, which aims at restoration of access to up to $7 million to respond to agricultural livelihoods, reconstruction immediate rehabilitation needs. of critical infrastructure, and improv-  The Contingent Emergency Response ing the Government’s disaster response Components (CERC) can be includ- and recovery capacities. ed in all standard investment projects  In addition to such investment opera- financed by IDA, IBRD or trust fund tions, the World Bank is providing techni- resources. In the event of an eligible cri- cal assistance to countries to develop their sis or emergency, funds can either be (i) national disaster management funding directly made available from the CERC; mechanisms and assess sovereign insur- or (ii) immediately reallocated from other ance options for building financial resil- components to offset the need for project ience. This is further described under the restructuring. In 2016, the World Bank Knowledge section below. Similarly, the has launched the El Nino preparedness World Bank will continue to seek oppor- initiative which systematically includes tunities to compliment the above men- CERCs into the existing portfolio to tioned financial instruments and mech- provide “bridge financing” for immedi- anisms through programs such as the ate response and recovery. The immedi- public-private partnerships for agricul- ate availability of resources supports the tural insurance and developing scalable client’s first response, and facilitates the social safety nets (refer to Section 3.1). coordination in the early recovery phase, Building Urban Resilience bridging the gap to longer-term recov- The World Bank will provide assistance to ery and reconstruction phase. African cities to address major resilience  In 2015, Niger consolidated the CERCs challenges—poverty reduction, rapidly in four projects according to harmonized growing populations, exposure to natural operational procedures under the Imme- hazards, climate variability, environmental diate Response Mechanism (IRM). It is sustainability, and social inclusion. To under- the first African country to set up this pin the scientific basis for investments, the mechanism to access up to five percent World Bank is supporting urban vulnerabil- of undisbursed IDA balance in case of ity and poverty studies initially in Antanan- a declared emergency. Countries such arivo (Madagascar) and Maputo (Mozam- as Madagascar and Mozambique are bique). These analytics will help identify in the process of finalizing their IRMs. policy actions to increase the resilience of  In 2015, Malawi was impacted by heavy the urban poor and inform the national and precipitation and flooding. The World municipal authorities on how to better target Bank Africa DRM team, UN and EU and finance poverty reduction programs. In supported the Government to con- addition, the City Strength Diagnostic and duct a PDNA. This led to $80 million other risk assessment and financing tools, of additional IDA resources from the will continue to be developed to support Crisis Response Window (CRW) for planning and build capacity. 47 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Investments will be made in upgrad- Mainstreaming DRM & CCA ing urban transport and critical infrastruc- As Africa is vulnerable to disaster and climate ture, promoting climate-resilient land use, risks, the World Bank will continue to sup- improving solid waste management, and port development projects aimed at build- adopting integrated watershed manage- ing resilience to these shocks. Currently esti- ment. The focus will be on medium-size mated at $5.8 billion and representing 10.8 (500,000 to 1 million people), large (1–10 percent of the total active portfolio in Afri- million people) and megacities (more than ca, the Bank’s DRM portfolio already shows 10 million people) that are growing at more a significant financial commitment to DRM/ than three percent per year, and cities with CCA across sector programs. The aim is to high hazard exposure and climatic impact. further increase this in response to country In 2016–2020, the World Bank aims to priorities. Particular focus will be given to provide technical assistance to 30 cities to drought resilience, flood management, coast- consolidate the development outcomes of al erosion, early warning and forecasting sys- earlier investments. This will support the tems, emergency communication and man- development of investments for 20 cities by agement systems, urban planning, building 2020. Examples of scalable initiatives that codes and social safety nets. are already underway include a flood pre- To intensify support for climate resil- vention and preparedness project in Dakar; ient development, the World Bank has devel- institutional and urban management sys- oped the Africa Climate Business Plan, a tems project in Dar es Salaam; flood risk flagship initiative to accelerate support for mitigation projects in Ibadan and several climate adaptation and mitigation (Box  8). cities across Mozambique; post Ebola sup- This initiative aims to increase Africa’s resil- port in Sierra Leone, and implementation ience to climate change in several key sec- of the City Strength Diagnostic recommen- tors and cross cutting areas across the con- dations for Addis Ababa. tinent’s development agenda, and provide Box 8: Supporting Climate Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa The Africa Climate Business Plan aims to raise awareness and resources for priority climate-resilient and low-car- bon initiatives in Africa. The ambition of the plan is to raise $16 billion in climate finance by 2020, including $5 billion from the International Development Association (IDA). The remaining resources will be requested from bilateral and multilateral sources, including climate finance, and the private sector. It focuses on twelve priority areas, where the World Bank, in collaboration with African governments, regional and international partners, expects to help achieve results to strengthen, power and enable resilience. Scaling up of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) related lending in Africa, with two CSA projects under prepa- ration in Niger and Kenya, and another 30 within three years. The aim is to mobilize $ 3 billion and have 10 mil- lion farmers adopt CSA practices by 2020. Mobilizing an estimated $ 850 million for African forests, through investments in REDD+ (Reduction of Emis- sions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) processes and other programs. (continued on next page) 48 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward Box 8: Supporting Climate Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa (continued) Strengthening resilient landscapes and the integri- ty of ecosystems to provide the full range of services for productive sectors and livelihoods. The Bank will aim to mobilize $ 755 million to support the African Resilient Landscape Initiative (ARLI), which will help design and implement country- and region-specific integrated landscape-level strategies in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and East Africa. Supporting integrated watershed management by mobilizing $ 3 billion by 2020 across the Niger River, Lake Chad, Lake Victoria and Zambezi River Basins to support institutional strengthening, development of information management systems and tools, and infrastructure development such as irrigation sys- tems, water storage, and erosion control. Supporting ocean economy through an estimated $ 220 million. Analytical work will help countries to integrate climate change considerations into the ways in which fisheries and the ocean economy are managed, while invest- ments will support the management of coastal habitats, development of alternative livelihood opportunities for coastal communities and climate smart infrastructure. Supporting Climate Smart Cities through policy dialogue, technical work, and investment financing across 30 cities totaling $ 1 billion by 2020. This will include strengthening planning and capacity building using the City Strength Diagnostic, investing in resilient infrastructure and forging partnerships and city networks for knowl- edge sharing. Building Coastal Resilience through the mobilization of $ 450 million by 2020. Targeting West African coast- al areas, technical assistance will be provided to prepare climate-resilient coastal development and investment plans, while investments will be made in both hard (piers, artificial reefs, groins, etc.) and green infrastructure (mangroves, sand dunes, vegetation, etc.) to manage coastal erosion and flooding. Increasing Social Protection for the resilience of poor and vulnerable households by responding to disasters and new Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) approaches help build the adaptive capacity of households before climate and disaster shocks occur. In the face of increased climate-related shocks, The Bank will increase the scale and scope of social protection systems across Africa by mobilizing $ 480 million by 2020. Addressing the drivers of migration, through mobilizing $ 616 million by 2020. This will support diagnostic work to develop a better understanding of the push and pull factors behind mixed migration, identify its impacts, and craft durable solutions to inform investments. The team will first focus on two regions with urgent needs—the Lake Chad Basin and the Horn of Africa. This focus is particularly important given the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño effect on Africa; it is also important given the significant population movement witnessed in recent years as a result of conflicts across the continent. Energizing resilience through solar, hydro and geothermal energy will scale up low carbon energy sources across the African continent and mobilize an estimated $ 5.4 billion by 2020. Implementing a $ 270 million hydromet framework program to support Sub-Saharan countries in strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and build capacity at the community level for preparedness and response activities. Helping African countries and regional organizations integrate climate change considerations into the planning, design, and operation of investment in relevant sectors, an Africa Climate-Resilient Development Facility is being proposed (initial support estimated at $ 50 million by 2020). 49 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 opportunities for scaling up low carbon ener- critical infrastructure in a resilient man- gy sources. Planned projects aim to accel- ner in the disaster-affected provinces erate resource mobilization and action for and to improve its capacity to respond priority climate resilient initiatives in Africa. promptly and effectively to an eligible cri- Supporting Sustainable Recovery sis or emergency. Project activities will The World Bank will continue to support focus on resilient rehabilitation of key countries on post-disaster recovery and infrastructure (dikes and weirs, irriga- reconstruction. The World Bank is committed tion, water supply, and education), and to integrate build back better and long-term capacity building activities focusing on risk reduction approaches in all financing for construction of safer schools, enhanc- recovery and reconstruction. For example, the ing and rehabilitating hydromet data sta- World Bank supported Malawi and Mozam- tions, and early warning and emergency bique in adopting these approaches for the preparedness planning. recovery operations following floods in 2015:  After the PDNA to assess the impacts of Knowledge the 2015 floods in Malawi – with sup- Informed decision-making needs a solid infor- port from the ACP-EU NDRR Program, mation and knowledge base as well as dedicated the World Bank assisted the Govern- and skilled professionals. The World Bank will ment in defining a strategy for recov- support countries to develop capacity, gener- ery, leading to the Malawi Floods Emer- ate new knowledge, and apply this capacity and gency Recovery Project (MFERP). The knowledge to implement reform and investment four-year project will support resilience for DRM. Activities will cut across the five central building through rehabilitation and pillars of the DRM framework, with a focus on reconstruction of infrastructure to cli- the areas of: risk assessment, risk financing tools mate- and disaster-resilient design stan- and strategies, building institutional capacity and dards, livelihoods restoration and food policy development, promoting and coordinat- security, and strengthening the coun- ing DRM at the regional level, supporting resil- try’s DRM institutional framework and ient recovery, and helping countries to develop operational capacities. multi-sector investment plans for DRM and CCA.  In early 2015, the central and northern parts of Mozambique were affected by Enhancing the Understanding of Disas- heavy rains and floods. A World Bank- ter Risks led Rapid Recovery Assessment, also The World Bank will support a number conducted with support from the ACP- of disaster risk knowledge generation and EU NDRR Program, found that the total capacity building activities to catalyze dia- damage and loss impact of the disas- logue with government counterparts in the ter at the national level was estimated region on the primary risks they face and to to be five percent of the Gross Domes- facilitate the formulation of DRM strategies, tic Product. The assessment has led to such as financial protection and risk reduc- an Emergency Resilient Recovery Proj- tion investment programs. Activities will ect to assist the Government restore the include developing simplified risk profiles, 50 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward completing analytical studies on the impact country and regional capacities to better of disasters on poverty, demand-driven in- manage climate and disaster risks and lever- depth risk assessment projects, and training age DRM entry points to promote long-term and knowledge exchange events. resilient development. The ADRF, is part Simplified national-level multiple-haz- of the Program “Building Disaster Resil- ard (flood, drought, earthquake, volcano, and ience to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan cyclone), country risk profiles will be devel- Africa”, an initiative of the ACP Group of oped using globally available and readily States, financed by the EU, and aims to help accessible local datasets. The risk profiles will countries build their financial resilience to provide information on the impacts that disas- disasters. The three overall objectives of the ters have on country economies and popula- initiative include: i) supporting the devel- tion, through the development of stochastic opment of multi-risk financing strategies loss tables; loss exceedance curves with spec- at the regional, national and local levels ified return period losses; and annual aver- to help African countries make informed age loss (AAL) estimates. In the short term, decisions; ii) improving financial response simplified risk profiles will be produced for capacity post-disaster; and iii) mitigating Senegal, Ethiopia, Uganda, Niger and Kenya. the socio-economic, fiscal and financial Using lessons learned from the first phase, and impacts of disasters in African countries. based on interest and ongoing activities and Activities under the ADRF initiative dialogue in the region, simplified risk pro- will be calibrated according to the respec- files will then be developed for other African tive stages in which different countries are countries. Additional support will be provided in at present. They will range from diag- for sector based in-depth risk assessments at nostic and initial country engagement, to the subnational level to answer specific poli- formulation of national strategies, to the cy questions or support larger programs. To implementation of strategies. Diagnos- complement the above-mentioned macro- tic work will include high-level country level analysis, the World Bank will also sup- snapshot reports for up to ten countries port micro-level poverty analysis studies to for the purpose of providing a regional understand the disaster risks and impacts comparison and highlight existing activi- at the household level. Targeted risk assess- ties, challenges and gaps in terms of finan- ment training workshops will be held at the cial solutions and capacity. A methodology, country level, and a risk assessment commu- guidelines and standardized set of capaci- nity of practice will be established for Africa, ty building tools are being designed in col- using platforms such as the Building Disas- laboration with government counterparts ter Resilience for Sub-Saharan Africa web- with the aim of helping governments design site and the Regional Understanding Risk national risk financing strategies. In coun- (UR) conferences. tries moving forward with the implementa- Helping Countries on Risk Financing tion of risk financing strategies, the ADRF In response to increasing country demand, initiative will provide national and subna- an initiative has been launched to assist tional entities with the necessary technical, countries in Africa systematically enhance legal, operational and institutional support 51 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 to evaluate and, if appropriate, implement the Strengthening DRM in Mali project, the policy reforms and financial instruments, World Bank is working in partnership with and develop risk market infrastructures the National Meteorological Service, a cell- and public goods that would be neces- phone operator, Civil Protection, the Munic- sary to manage disaster risk. Support for ipality of Bamako and the French Institute implementation can include: assistance for Research and Development to demon- with new legislation and regulation, insti- strate the possibility of deriving reliable rain- tutional reform, design of new structures/ fall estimates from cellphone operators. This funds within the budget, structuring finan- type of innovative public private partner- cial instruments, budgetary systems and ship could not only fill a critical gap in cli- insurance pools and vehicles, developing mate observation but also lead to enhanc- new delivery mechanisms for social pro- ing the response from authorities and the tection/insurance, and assisting with legal/ public with more effective dissemination regulatory infrastructure necessary to sup- on the basis of information coincidentally port development of insurance markets. derived from cellphone signals. Strengthening Institutional Capacity Promoting Regional Cooperation for and Policy Disaster Risk Management The World Bank will support the strength- The Regional Economic Communities ening of institutions and DRM policies (RECs) in Africa convene their member in the countries, in line with the Sendai countries for achieving greater integration. Framework. In Ethiopia, for example, the They are the ‘building blocks’ of the African World Bank is supporting the rollout of the Union (AU) and are central to the imple- DRM policy and DRM Strategic Programme mentation of the New Partnership for Afri- and Investment Framework, which shifts ca’s Development (NEPAD). The RECs have the country’s DRM efforts from a respon- the mandate for coordinating disaster risk sive approach to an ex-ante, inclusive multi- reduction at the sub-regional level. They sectoral risk management approach. have formulated sub-regional policies and The World Bank will also help to build strategies, and support their member states capacity for technical innovations that build in disaster response. resilience to disaster and climate risks, with Under the “Building Disaster Resilience particular focus on the poor and vulnera- to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan Afri- ble communities. In Mali, for example, the can Regions, Countries and Communities” World Bank is supporting innovative public program, an initiative of the ACP Group private partnerships with cellphone opera- financed by the EU, the World Bank is sup- tors to determine the potential for deriving porting four African RECs to strengthen reliable rainfall estimates. While the Sahel their disaster risk reduction capacity with is affected by increasing intensity and fre- grant assistance. In 2016-2020, the follow- quency of urban and riverine flooding, Gov- ing activities are planned with the RECs: ernment-allocated resources to measure  ECOWAS will be supported to reinforce precipitation and model the hydrology are its DRM capacity, establish a regional decreasing. Therefore, as a component of flood management mechanism, foster 52 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward its DRM policy, and strengthen disas- World Bank will further improve the Disas- ter preparedness in the region. ter Recovery Framework, which serves as a  ECCAS will be supported in hazard, vul- tool for planning, coordinating, and man- nerability and risks assessments, DRM aging the long-term recovery process. Such mainstreaming and capacity building, efforts will stress the importance of coordi- strengthening policy dialogue and leg- nated, cost-effective and resilient recovery islation, and increasing regional capac- strategies for the at-risk countries. ity for post-disaster assessments and In addition to assessing the impact of reconstruction planning. natural disasters, there is growing interest  IGAD will be supported in reviewing its for the World Bank to provide support, along DRM strategy and program, increasing with its development partners, in post con- awareness at the political level, updat- flict environments. The methodology for the ing policies, strategies and legal frame- Post Conflict Needs Analysis (PCNA) con- work, strengthening the IGAD Disaster tinues to be further adjusted to suit highly Response Fund, establishing a regional complex conflict environments. Recovery framework for flood early warning and and peacebuilding assessments have cur- early action, strengthening institutional rently been initiated in Mali and Nigeria. capacity at member states, promotion The World Bank’s Africa DRM Team of climate smart agriculture and devel- will continue to maintain its internal Emer- oping a framework for mainstreaming gency Monitoring and Advisory System DRM in school curricula. (EMAS), which informs World Bank staff  SADC will be supported in establish- of recent, imminent or ongoing disasters, ing a framework for a regional flood- both rapid and slow-onset. The group is hazard early warning system, strength- also exploring the development of a simpli- ening the DRM institutional capacity fied impact estimation model, using satel- of SADC and member states, review- lite imagery and geospatial economic data ing policies, strategies and legal frame- to provide initial readings of disaster scale work for DRM and providing access to and impact in a systematic manner. knowledge and international expertise Developing Investment Plans for Climate to advance the DRM regional agenda. and Disaster Risk Management Building Capacity to Respond and Recov- As part of the corporate commitments of er from Disasters IDA17, the World Bank is undertaking a In response to government requests, the number of activities to further ensure that World Bank will support countries in post- climate and disaster risks are adequately disaster events to determine the extent of incorporated into IDA operations. These economic impacts and help define recovery include: (i) incorporating climate and disas- priorities through PDNAs. The World Bank ter risk considerations into the analysis of will continue to work with UNDP and EU the countries’ development challenges and to improve the methodology and capacities in the programs and results framework; (ii) for conducting such assessments. Moving screening all new IDA operations for short- towards a holistic recovery framework, the and long-term climate change and disaster 53 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 risks and integrating appropriate resilience for People Exposed to Risks (Peri Peri measures; and (iii) supporting IDA coun- U), which play a critical role in develop- tries to develop and implement country-led, ing active training, and research and pol- multi-sector development and investment icy advocacy capacity for DRM in Africa. plans for managing climate and disaster The ACP-EU ‘Building Disaster Resilience risk in at least 25 additional IDA countries. to Natural Hazards in Sub-Saharan Afri- The World Bank teams will undertake rapid can Regions, Countries and Communi- diagnostics, followed by broader consulta- ties’ program is aimed at strengthening tion with line ministries, development part- this cooperation and its hosting platform, ners and other stakeholders. For Africa, 15 by strengthening the African Union Com- national multi-sectoral plans will be pre- mission, and enabling the African Devel- pared by June 2017. opment World Bank, UNISDR and the World Bank to better support countries Partnerships with DRM solutions, particularly in risk Over the next five years, the World Bank is assessments, risk financing, early warning expanding and deepening diverse partnerships and disaster databases. The Regional Plat- that help to deliver innovative risk reduction forms and National Platforms convened by solutions for Africa. A broad network of region- UNISDR and its partners are also crucial al, country and international development part- in leveraging DRM knowledge and solu- ners provides access to global knowledge, builds tions through coordinated actions. The technical and operational collaboration, and Understanding Risk and Finance Confer- facilitates the mobilization of resources. The ence (2015) led to the formation of a DRM World Bank will also facilitate South-South Community of Practice specific to Africa, partnerships among countries for knowledge which is expected to develop into a vol- exchange and regional cooperation. untary network for knowledge exchange and south-south cooperation in the gov- Leveraging Existing Partnership Platforms ernment and technical sectors. The Africa Working Group on DRR (AWG- Strengthening Collaboration with Region- DRR) provides a strategic platform to sys- al Economic Communities tematically strengthen cooperation and The World Bank is committed to strengthen- collaboration between African countries ing the RECs in Africa for optimal regional and their development partners, includ- cooperation in DRM. The RECs perform a ing the African Union Commission, Afri- twin role in supporting disaster and climate can Development Bank, European Union, risk management. Several of them house Regional Economic Communities, UN the sub-regional institutions and capacity agencies, bilateral donors, academia, civil for early warning, emergency response and society and the private sector. Through data sharing. They also serve as the coor- such platforms, the World Bank will con- dinating entities for member states’ indi- tinue to deepen cooperation and knowl- vidual efforts at disaster and climate risk edge exchange with academic networks, management, which allows regional inte- such as the Partners Enhancing Resilience gration and economies of scale. Efforts such 54 Strategic Priorities – The Way Forward as ICPAC (which is IGAD’s Climate Predic- will assist countries on the basics of disaster and tion and Application Center), the upcom- climate resilience in understanding risk, early ing Early Warning and Forecast System of warning and preparedness, and resilient recov- ECCAS in Douala, the ECOWAS initiative ery, and also in the sophisticated aspects of risk for regional flood observation and manage- reduction and risk financing. ment, and SADC’s Climate Services Center In this nuanced approach for building are good examples of the convening power medium and long-term resilience in coun- of the RECs that needs to be harnessed and tries and communities, the World Bank will strengthened. The ACP-EU ‘Building Disas- partner with government and non-govern- ter Resilience to Natural Hazards in Sub- ment stakeholders at all levels, including Saharan African Regions, Countries and the national, local and community levels. Communities’ Program has provisioned Improved partnerships with local commu- additional finance for strengthening the nities and leveraging their capacities and capacity of four RECS covering the entire indigenous knowledge will improve the region – IGAD, ECCAS, ECOWAS and effectiveness of the World Bank’s support SADC. The capacity building of the RECs for climate and disaster resilience. Local will focus on DRM coordination, planning communities and authorities are the most and policy advisory capacities both inter- interested stakeholders in DRM, and often nally and also for supporting the respective the first responders when a disaster strikes. member states. This makes it imperative for the World Bank Enhancing National and Local Level to engage closely with local communities Engagements and authorities in order to build capacity at The World Bank is currently supporting 22 the cutting edge, and also improve partic- African countries through 48 DRM activi- ipatory and inclusive planning and imple- ties. It is seeking to broaden this engagement mentation of DRM solutions. to more countries, and also to deepen country Deepening Cooperation with Develop- and regional engagements through the devel- ment Partners opment and implementation of multi-sectoral GFDRR donors are strategic partners in the investments plans for managing climate and DRM agenda in Africa. Their sustained sup- disaster risk in a minimum of 15 African coun- port makes systematic DRM engagement tries by June 2017. The World Bank also recog- with vulnerable countries possible. These nizes that countries have varied disaster and partnerships are crucial as the World Bank climate risk profiles, and are at different stages scales up its support for building disaster and of socio-economic development. This requires climate resilience in the region. The ACP-EU customized and demand-driven approaches for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction) Program designing the disaster and climate risk manage- and Building Disaster Resilience in Sub- ment initiatives in consultation with the coun- Saharan Africa Program have been instru- tries. It also requires the World Bank to adopt mental in bringing a much-needed adequa- a qualitative approach to DRM mainstreaming cy and predictability in the World Bank’s for building resilience. As the World Bank deep- technical assistance and capacity building ens this engagement with countries in Africa, it works in Africa. Similarly, the other Special 55 Striving Toward Disaster Resilient Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – Strategic Framework 2016–2020 Program of GFDRR, the Japan-World Bank at a time of unprecedented interplay of develop- Program for ‘Mainstreaming Disaster Risk ment challenges with disaster and climate risks. Management in Developing Countries’ is The Sendai Framework, the Sustainable Develop- vital in connecting African countries with ment Goals and the COP21 Agreement are tes- Japan’s global expertise to support DRM timony to the growing momentum for enhanc- initiatives in Africa. It is expected that the ing the resilience of developing countries in the cooperation among Japan, African coun- face of increasing climate and disaster risk. The tries and the Bank on DRM will be further Africa DRM Strategic Framework will lever- strengthened through the TICAD73 process, age decades of development experience at the which is due to meet next in Africa in 2016. 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