ANNUAL Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme REPORT 2018 ANNUAL Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme REPORT 2018 Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme (TURP) was established in 2016 from a partnership between the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the World Bank to support the Government of Tanzania in its endeavour to increase resilience to climate and disaster risk. Tan z ania U rban R e s ilien c e P rogra m m e “With this program, Dar es Salaam will become a new and better city, the bayou of ‘heshima na sifa’. The city will become more liveable and people will visit Dar es Salaam for the sake of visiting Dar es Salaam.” – Honorable January Makamba, Minister of State in the Vice President’s Office “It is important that this program receives our government’s support to achieve its goals because this will be our government’s legacy.” – Honorable Selemani Jafo, Minister of State in the President’s Office This publication is a product of the staff and consultants of the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the executive directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This note is created by The World Bank and available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CCBY3.0) license. This guidance note is intended to be a live document and is subject to change without notice. turp report 2018 C r e dits editors Darragh Coward Edward Anderson Eric Dickson graphic design Theresia Mmasi photo credits Andrew Stephen Chris Morgan printing DTP Printing TABLE oF C o n t e n ts Executive Results Summary Overview / page 1 / page 85 By The Numbers / page 7 / page 91 / page 11 / page 95 Description of program activities / page 15 / page 101 DISBURSEMENTS /PAGE 104 / page 19 DELIVERY CHAIN / PAGE 105 BANK-EXECUTED GRANTS Pillar 1 RISK IDENTIFICATION / page 2 1 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction Measures + Pl anning / page 39 Pillar 3 Emergency Management + Response / page 61 RESILIENCE ACADEMY / page 73 / page 78 RECIPIENT-EXECUTED GRANTS PROGR AM MANAGEMENT / page 81 ACRoNYMS AA Administration Agreement IPF Investment Project Financing AAL Average Annual Loss KPI Key Performance Indicator ACCA Awareness, Comprehension, LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging Commitment, Action M&E Monitoring and Evaluation ASA Advisory Services and Analytics MEO Mtaa Executive Officer BETF Bank-Executed Trust Fund MKUKUTA-II National Strategy for Growth and BRT Bus Rapid Transit Poverty Reduction CDPRP Community Disaster Preparedness MoU Memorandum of Understanding and Response Plan MoWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation CDRT Community Disaster Response Teams MSMF Msimbazi Strategic Management Framework CERC Contingency Emergency NEMC National Environmental Management Component Management Council COP Community of Practice OPM Oxford Policy Management COSTECH Tanzania Commission for Science PA Programmatic Approach and Technology PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment CRRP Community Risk Reduction Plan PO-RALG President’s Office – Regional CSO Civil Society Organization Administration and Local Government CTTL Child Activity Task Team Leader RAS Regional Administrative Secretary DarMAERT Dar es Salaam Multi-Agency RETF Recipient-Executed Trust Fund Emergency Response Team RMI Risk Management Index DART Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit Agency SC Steering Committee DEMs Digital Elevation Models SOGDAT Support to Open Data and Accountability DfID United Kingdom’s Department for in Tanzania International Development SUZA State University of Zanzibar DMD Disaster Management Department SWIFT Survey of Well-being via Instant DRF Disaster Risk Framework and Frequent Tracking DRM Disaster Risk Management TAHMO Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological EMI Earthquake Megacities Initiative Observatory EMIS Emergency Management TANROADS Tanzania National Roads Agency Information System TED Training, Exercises, and Drills Program ESA European Space Agency TF Trust Fund EWS Early Warning System TMA Tanzanian Meteorological Agency FY Fiscal Year TOR Terms of Reference GA Grant Agreements TRC Tanzania Red Cross GEO-ICT Geographic Information and TTL Task Team Leader Communication Technologies TURP Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and Recovery UDSM University of Dar es Salaam GFR Grant Financing Request ULGA Urban Local Government Authority GIS Geographic Information System UNA Urban Natural Assets GoT The Government of Tanzania USSD Unstructured Supplementary Service Data GPSURR Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience UTEP Urban Thematic Exploration Platform Global Practice VICOBA Village Community Banks ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability WBG Word Bank Group IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on Development WRBWB WamiRuvu River Basin Water Board e x e cutiv e summ a r y TURP Annual Report 2018 } 1 2 TURP Annual Report 2018 } coordination, integrated planning, and rapid response The year from July 2017 to were identified and resulted in the Vice President June 2018 was an eventful establishing the Dar es Salaam City Flood Committee. one and served to establish On April, 15, 2018, the Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner declared a state of flood emergency urban resilience as an in Dar es Salaam and called for evacuation of all urgent priority for people living in hazard zones. This flood took the lives of 15 persons, and also caused widespread Tanzania’s development. damage to houses, road infrastructure, and bridges. The twin pressures of rapid urbanization and The Tanzania Urban Resilience Program (TURP) a changing climate are driving an accelerating has thus become a critically important initiative increase indisaster risk. at a time of high visibility and government attention. The year has been characterized by The city of Dar es Salaam experienced four major a peak in technical assistance activities with floods in this period. October 2017 saw unusually over US$5.5 million in UK Department for intense rainfall, which led to flash floods, loss of life, International Development (DfID) funding having and housing, destruction, and major disruption to the been disbursed or committed across 16 contracts city’s Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Similar scenes spread through the four program work Pillars. were repeated in January, March, and April of 2018. Pillar 1, which focuses on establishing actionable data Following the January 2018 flood event, Her and climate science for risk reduction, has already Excellence Samia Suluhu, Vice President of Tanzania, supported risk-reduction planning and response convened a wide range of national agencies and measures. The instrumentation of the Msimbazi Basin city authorities to review the causes and mitigation with meteorological and hydrological sensors has options for floods. Key challenges of institutional profiled in detail the flood events of the past year. On 15th April, 2018 the Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner declared a state of flood emergency in Dar es Salaam and called for evacuation TURP Annual Report 2018 of all people living in hazard zones. 04 people major floods died from july 2017 to june 2018 } 3 The 24-hour observations of rainfall during the Pillar 2 activities, focused on planning and October 2017 flood characterized the event as a coordination for risk reduction, began work at both one-in-10-year event. These data were essential in community and metropolitan levels. One highlight developing and calibrating a Msimbazi hydrological has been the execution of Tanzania’s first Design flood model used for flood mitigation planning. Charrette — a participatory planning and design process — used to develop flood mitigation plans and In addition to hazard data collection, TURP has a framework for action for the Msimbazi Basin. The advanced the state of mapping of the urban process began in February 2018 with 45 participants environment by surveying on the ground and representing a range of agencies, communities, and from the air the buildings, infrastructure, and subject matter experts. This stakeholder group community assets. This process has leveraged worked iteratively over seven months to assess the innovations in satellite, drone, and community results of flood model analysis and flood control data collection methods to ensure low costs options, design a detailed plan for the Lower and address local skills and sustainability. Msimbazi, and establish priorities for an basin- Ramani Huria, the ‘Open Map’, which engages a wide Strategic Development and Managementand consortium of local universities, has continued to Management Framework. The participation grew to grow. The mapping campaigns have trained over over 80 persons by the last charrette, demonstrating 350 Tanzanian students and engaged 35,000 strong support and engagement. households in the collection of community knowledge in rapidly growing neighborhoods. Pillar 3, which deals with the emergency management and preparedness activities, began In addition to mapping of flood-related the year by launching the first Dar es Salaam infrastructure, such as houses at risk and Emergency Response Plan. This document supports transport and drainage networks, the initiative the expansion of the emergency communications also quickly deployed to survey flood perceptions network established in the first year of TURP in the Msimbazi Valley, solid waste dumps, and and guides stakeholder agencies dealing with community priorities for protection. metropolitan level alerts, coordination, response, February 2018 tanzania’s first TURP Annual Report 2018 a participatory planning and design process used to develop flood mitigation plans and a framework for action for the Msimbazi Basin. } 4 pillars + resiliEnce academy PILLAR 1 PILLAR 3 Actionable Emergency Management Data Collection and Preparedness PILLAR 2 RESILIENCE ACADEMY Planning for Scientific Tools and Models Risk Reduction for Risk Management and recovery actions. The World Bank has worked Roads Agency (Tanroads) in assessing options for with the Dar es Salaam Multi-Agency Emergency a contingency and emergency operations plan and Response Team to prepare a two-year program of developing a road map for short- and long-term training, exercises, and drills, as well as a review of emergency management. the Emergency Operations Center and standard operating procedures for which an international firm The Resilience Academy has evolved into a stand- was engaged to further develop these activities. alone pillar of TURP following high demand for a skills and sustainability focus to investments in data, scientific tools, and models, as well as The Tanzania Urban risk management practices. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed with Ardhi Resilience Program (TURP) University in September 2017, with collaborations has thus become a critically and student participation increasing during the year and a draft curriculum for risk mapping important initiative at a established. In June 2018, the TURP Steering Committee agreed to increase the scope of work in time of high visibility and this Pillar and a planning workshop was organized government attention. to outline the expansion of work to include three additional Tanzania universities as well as to explore international partnership opportunities for training, In addition to support for the institutional elements research, and collaboration. TURP Annual Report 2018 of the regional and municipal disaster management system, TURP was able to respond to specific needs The risk register for the program has been of the transport network. Following the multiple updated to reflect the challenges of managing disruptions to the road and bridge network, and for complexity both in the breadth of institutions especially to the BRT service due to recurrent as well as in thematic areas. TURP currently has flood events during the year, TURP mobilized many activities running in parallel, each with inter- international experts to support the Dar es Salaam related stakeholders and synergies. Coordination } Rapid Transit Agency (DART) and Tanzania National and communication are key to ensuring ambitious 5 timelines and effective stakeholder engagement 2018, which TURP is supporting to raise awareness and results. In addition, expectations are now high and help mobilize residents and local government that the program will deliver visible impacts in the in the importance of waste management and river next year, and it is essential for success to maintain clean-ups for flood reduction. both high-level political ownership as well as stable financial resources. The main focus on implementation in the coming year is expected to be the approval and initiation of Looking ahead, the next year of the program an investment project for the Lower Msimbazi based anticipates shifting from a peak in design and on the science and planning work so far conducted, procurement activities towards a peak for training which intends to deliver flood mitigation works with and implementation. One high-visibility activity is short- and longer-term benefits for citizens. expected to be the World Clean Up day in September TURP Annual Report 2018 } 6 Manzese clean up, June 2017 Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank 7 TURP Annual Report 2018 } 02 by th e n umb e r s 8 TURP Annual Report 2018 } HIGHLIGHTS Innovation in Risk Identification 26km of flood zones mapped by UAVs 35,000 households surveyed for flood information 3 community mappers flood events trained captured TURP Annual Report 2018 weather stations accuracy of installed building detection } 9 Community Engagement for Reduced Risk 04 23 community community workshops clean ups on emergency conducted management The Msimbazi Charette urban design process months of representatives collaboration working sessions local citizens actors plan agreed Strengthening Emergency Response TRAININGS ON EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS radio base flood events captured stations TURP Annual Report 2018 mobile stations installed 50% to 100% repeater Expansion of stations emergency coverage } 10 11 TURP Annual Report 2018 } T U RP ABOUT 03 12 TURP Annual Report 2018 } Increasing Resilience to The overall objective Climate and Disaster Risk: of the TURP is to support TURP supports the Government of Tanzania(GoT) national and local in implementing a program that promotes climate and disaster risk management in the wider context governments in Tanzania in of sustainable development. The proposed strengthening management engagement is aligned with and directly addresses the government’s priorities on growth, the of climate risk in cities. environment, and climate adaptation outlined in the second National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction(known as MKUKUTA-IIMkakatiwa Tanzania is the most flood-affected Kukuza Uchumina Kupunguz aUmaskini Tanzania). country in East Africa and is also home to Similarly, the activities directly support the strategic some of the fastest-growing cities on the objectives and interventions in the National continent. The program therefore seeks Climate Change Strategy, Zanzibar Climate Change to enable climate-resilient urbanization Strategy, and Disaster Management Act 2015. through greater risk identification, systems planning for risk reduction, and supporting coordination and emergency management Promoting Shared Prosperity activities. This is especially aligned with and Ending Extreme Poverty: the Sustainable Development Goal 11 Climate change and adverse natural events have to “make cities and human settlements the greatest impact on the poorest populations inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable”. 1 who generally live in higher-risk areas and have a diminished capacity to recover from disaster. In Higher-level objectives to which the program the case of Tanzania, even frequent, low-intensity contributes include: events such as a heavy rainfall can have crippling and cumulative effects on livelihoods and communities of the bottom 40%. Impediments to development 1 https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/cities/ gains as a result of climate hazards that particularly TURP Annual Report 2018 } 13 CHALLENGES OF TURP Lack of data Inadequacy of Tanzanian Significant and growing, and information urban and land use planing infrastructure gap impact the poorest communities can be minimized Over the past two years, TURP has worked by reducing the exposure to hazard events and through a structure of four Pillars to effectively decreasing the vulnerability of the poor to climate foster engagement and dialogue surrounding disturbances. urban resilience. These Pillars are: (1) risk identification, (2) risk reduction, (3) emergency These are the core challenges being addressed preparedness, and (4) the Resilience Academy. by TURP, a partnership between the GoT, World Bank Group (WBG), and UK Department for A Steering Committee, composed of key International Development (DfID) to support stakeholders from the Prime Minister’s Office national and local governments in strengthening — i.e., Disaster Management Department, the management of urban climate risk. Initiatives President’s Office — regional administration and being implemented by this program are aimed at Local Government,the DfID, and the World Bank establishing a systematic mainstreaming of risk have overseen the implementation projects that fall management principles across government and beneath these Pillars, with advice from the Technical civil society stakeholders operating at community, Advisory Committee, composed of a broader set of municipal, and national levels. program stakeholders and government agencies. TURP Annual Report 2018 } Credit: Chris Morgan, World Bank 14 Description of program activities The activities financed by the TF include: World Bank-executed activities, for which the World Bank has implementation responsibility: (a) Pillar 1 – Risk Identification This Pillar strengthens the identification and understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in the local context and enhances the linkages and coordination between risk management stakeholders. To make decisions that ultimately strengthen physical, social, and financial resilience, a thorough understanding of disaster and climate risks in the local context and their implications are vital. This informs decision makers about the risks they face and the drivers of those risks. As such, Pillar 1 increases access to comprehensive information about physical and societal exposure to climate risks, which inform implementation of Flooding victims in Manzese, March 2017 structural and non-structural mitigation measures. Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank Key activities in this Pillar are the collection and organization or climate risk data as well as the development of visualization tools and risk models. Socio-economic data include the mapping of people, assets such as houses or critical infrastructure, and urban services and livelihoods. Environmental data and models TURP Annual Report 2018 include the historical data and current monitoring of hydro-meteorological phenomena, geophysical characteristics of the urban environment such as soil types, land use, and river basin profiles, as well as applying the best climate models to identify future impacts of climate change. } 15 Drain mapping in Manzese, June 2017 Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank These investments support the resilience of critical (b) Pillar 2 – Risk Reduction infrastructure, and specifically target measures aimed at protecting priority river basins and Guided by the data and management tools of Pillar 1, improving flood management infrastructure. Pillar 2 functions to strengthen cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce climate risk through the use (c) Pillar 3 – Disaster Preparedness of both structural and non-structural measures and Emergency Management addressing long-term systemic risk. In partnership with government entities, civil society, and the Pillar 3 supports all stakeholders involved with private sector, activities supported focus on the short-term disaster events and preparedness for reduction of the vulnerability of people, households, specific emergency scenarios. Also guided by Pillar and communities. This is accomplished by providing 1 data, Pillar 3-collected scenarios of city risk will be analysis of non-structural measures, such as used to establish good practices around identifying creating or improving policies and legislation, better and preparing vulnerable groups, emergency land use planning, environmental protection and response plans, and an operations center; design basin plans, hazard zoning and building codes, and of Early Warning Systems (EWSs); requirements the design of risk-reduction works, such as drainage for equipment, tools, and infrastructure; and upgrades, ponding schemes, slope stabilization, simulations, drills, and damage assessment and retrofitting or reinforcement programs. capacities. Stakeholders in this workstream are concerned with civil protection, disaster The activitiessupport communities, planning, management, community volunteers, coordination and works authorities with the development of for response, and recovery actions. a pipeline of investments reducing urban risk. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 16 Students mapping in Manzese, March 2017 Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank The goal is to enable a legacy for skills and tools developed through TURP...that enhance the sustainability of risk management practices and datasets in Tanzania. (D) Resilience Academy developed through TURP and build partnerships between academia and practitioners that enhance Thematic content of the Resilience Academy is the sustainability of risk management practices and embedded as a knowledge-transfer function within datasets in Tanzania. the activities of Pillars 1 through 3. Government projects for which one or more The concept of the Resilience Academy is agencies have implementation responsibility: as an evolving virtual program anchored in Tanzanianuniversities and training institutes and TURP will provide financial support for government delivering digital curricula, practical experience, implementation of activities designed to (i) mainstream training placements and courses, and equipment to and scale up climate risk management practices, support surveying, maintenance, risk monitoring, including community-driven works, projects, and small and analysis activities. grants; and (ii) introduction of green urban investments for flood riskreduction, basin management, drainage Key activities are the transfer of datasets and risk enhancements, and EWSs. analysis tools to university programs, as well as leveraging the yearly placement in industry program to A key focus will be to support the government’s Flood provide university students with real-world experience Management Task Force through a Msimbazi River Flood in collecting, analyzing, and applying risk data. Risk Reduction project and development of a Msimbazi Basin Flood Management Framework. The goals are to enable a legacy for skills and tools pillar 1 14% Distribution of TURP Annual Report 2018 TURP Project pillar 2 13% 41% Pillar Funds in pillar 3 32% Fiscal Year 2018 resilience academy } 17 TURP Annual Report 2018 } Credit: Chris Morgan, World Bank 18 04 a ctivity summ a r y TURP Annual Report 2018 } 19 20 TURP Annual Report 2018 } BANK-EXECUTED GRANTS PILLAR 1 RISK IDENTIFICATION Objective To strengthen the identification and understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in the local context. Overview of Progress The first Pillar remained a priority over Fiscal Year (FY) 18 with activities working to collect data and serving as a foundation for other TURP initiatives. Outputs to date have been presented to the Steering and Technical Advisory Committees, and it is expected that new commitments under Pillar 1 will either start to focus on secondary cities in Tanzania or begin to wind down. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 21 Ramani Huria workshop participants ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Historical Events Inventory INITIAL STAGES International consultants have been selected to provide review and design of inventory needs. Risk Management Index INITIAL STAGES An international team has been selected to + Updates develop a framework and recurring assessment of institutional activities for collective risk management. The first set of assessments is expected in late 2018 and will include retroactive scores for 2016 and 2017 Elevation Model and Exposure ONGOING Various digital elevation models have been Mapping acquired and used for different flood models. These include a citywide digital terrain model for Dar es Salaam based on 2016 imagery, as well as smaller, very high-resolution drone-based maps along 26km of high-risk rivers. Annual mapping of high-risk rivers Is expected to continue, as is work to complement the 2016 aerial mapping with in-situ surveys, control points, and river profiles. In addition, these datasets shall be made available on government and university map portals under appropriate documentation and licensing. Socio-economic exposure ONGOING 20 flood-prone wards mapped at high resolution mapping - Ramani Huria for buildings, drains, businesses, community assets, and concerns. City Satellite Data Mapping FINALIZED Cloud-free imagery collected, building detection Pilot– Planet Labs established, changes in building footprints identified, building height and floor space index calculation demonstrated. Hydrological Study - TAHMO ONGOING 8 weather stations installed, 4 trainings on weather stations conducted, and an EWS shell established for model development and testing set-up. Spatial Data Management ONGOING Geonode instances have been set up at & Hosting COSTECH and SUZA as testing sites for use with risk Information and map sharing. A risk data model has been developed to align urban data collection system with international standards TURP Annual Report 2018 for exposure, hazard, vulnerability, and risk data. Dar es Salaam Probabilistic Flood Risk PENDING Concept note developed and consulted. This Evaluation activity awaits the availability of key input datasets as well as user feedback on visualization tools before tendering. Sediment Erosion Monitoring ONGOING Study initiated for Dar es Salaam rivers, } observations, and data now being analyzed. 22 Elevation Model with local elevation models using drone imagery. This is the same technique as employed for aerial manned The availability of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) flights; it presents significant advantages, however, in is critical for flood-hazard mapping, providing higher resolution, lower cost, lower complexity, and terrain topology for developing accurate flood greater timeliness for deployment. It is expected that models, identifying flood plains, and indicating drone imagery will also support post-disaster damage which infrastructure is at risk. DEMs can be assessments in the future, and will provide high- obtained through satellite or aerial imagery as cadence baseline information for the benefit of both overlapping images from above, allowing for the program and non-program projects. formation of a 3D model of the Earth’s surface, or from radar, LiDAR, or ground-based surveys. Collaboration with the Urban Thematic Exploration Drones can use similar photogrammetry techniques Platform (UTEP) of the European Space Agency to provide much more detailed DEMs, which also (ESA) supported this initiative and has also opened support more accurate flood models at a cheaper opportunities for partnerships and research on acquisition cost than aerial surveys or LiDAR. climate impacts. In FY 18, approval to use a 4300km2 Digital Community Mapping Elevation Model for all of Dar es Salaam, based on 2016 Ministry of Lands Aerial Surveys, was TURP’s community engagement and mapping project, acquired to support implementation of program- known locally as Ramani Huria or ‘Open Map’, is funded projects. In addition, highly dynamic facilitated by the Humanitarian Open Street Map Team. features, such as river courses, river deltas, and rapidly changing urban areas, have been updated Over the course of FY 18, this project equipped Map Labels in Unplanned Communities An important element to emerge from the community groups was the need to update or assign place-names to local features – these is particularly problematic when communicating with TURP Annual Report 2018 external partners, government or in case of a larger emergency. As such the mapping facilitators worked with residents to label places in high risk areas such as: } 23 960+ Tanzanian citizens with basic mapping skills assets and possible threats perceived by the using locally accessible tools. Historical flood community. extent mapping undertaken by these citizens resulted in the acquisition of approximately 35,000 These meetings also served to socialize existing individual household responses that have guided the Ramani Huria maps and develop basic spatial development of community assets, drainage, and awareness at local levels with respect to flood flood inundation hazard maps. hazards and typical community flood response. At the end of the exercise, all participants were able The quality of drainage mapping was improved by to locate theirhouses andupdate street road names the introduction of the Deltares topological quality on the map.This was followed by community work assurance model that works to reveal missing data conducted in groups to identify important local and missing connection information, such as identified assets by tracing on transparencies and creating an outlets or open ends in the drainage network. Twenty associated list of issues. previously unmapped wards were covered through this process, and an atlas of flood resilience, reaching The main features mapped were i) critical facilities sub-ward level, was produced from the results. or assets such as schools, places of worship, playgrounds, and health centers; ii) known services The Ramani Huria team also conducted a series and places at risk, such as frequently flooded public of community meetings in Kigogo Mbuyuni and buildings and areas; and iii) evacuation centers. Kigogo Kati, sub-wards of Kigogo ward, to engage with different actors 2 in the sub-ward about the 2 Mtaa Executive Officer (MEO), Chairman of sub-ward, all councillors of Wajumbe, 10 cells Shina Wajumbe, non-governmental organizations, and community-based organizations such as Tegemeo Road names Places of Offices/ Lodges/ worship Public offices Guesthouses TURP Annual Report 2018 Playgrounds Leisure centers Petrol and bars Stations } 24 DAR ES SALAAM MAPPING PROGRESS Mtaa: Sinza 'A' Kata: Sinza Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors Roads Waterways Trunk ditch Primary drain Secondary Amenities Tertiary ATM Residential Bank Footway TURP Annual Report 2018 Bar Boundaries Bus station Ward Cafe Sub-ward Clinic Fast food Pharmacy Restaurant Buildings Residential Apartments Church Commercial Mixed Construction Hospital Industrial Public School 0 100 200 300 400 500 m } 25 A four-day workshop facilitated by the Ramani Huria team further brought The Ramani Huria together over 40 stakeholders to engage in discussion on the progress and project also potential of community-mapping methods. Participants were introduced to visualization tools and methods based on open source and free data, entered into a anddesigned to assist with collecting spatial data, sharing and visualizing, and partnership analyzing at local scales. with Nipe Fagio “The workshop made it very tangible that we can now identify which health facilities are under threat of flooding. The Ministry for Health also needs to be through TURP able to track where cholera outbreaks originate from. The Shina boundaries funding to mapped by the Ramani Huria team provide an unprecedented detail to determine where a person comes from. As soon as health facilities ask patients support World for their Shina this will narrow down our search for contamination sources of Cholera and other waterborne diseases.” Cleanup Day. - Ali Nyanga, Ministry for Health Representative The Ramani Huria project also entered into a partnership with Nipe Fagio through TURP funding to support World Cleanup Day. Ramani Huria will thus support the mapping of solid waste dump sites and drainage impacts which is expected to assist the Nipe Fagio team in designating trash collection locations across the city of Dar es Salaam to enable analysis for effective waste management. TURP Annual Report 2018 } Ramani Huria workshop participants left the program with knowledge and practical skills 26 HIGHLIGHTS 625 community members (Female 226, Male 399) 960 total trainees 313 Summer 2017 students (Female 127, Male 186) 22 institutions Expected in 2018 Engage 450 2.3+ students during the 2018 Summer Placement in Industry Program million 1,000+ TURP Annual Report 2018 community members MAP 44 wards people over 380 SQ.KM affected } 27 AREA COVERED Spotlight Story Next Generation of Youth in Tanzania to Be Equipped With Critical Skills in Urban Resilience TURP Annual Report 2018 Related Link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/02/14/next-generation- of-youth-in-tanzania-to-be-equipped-with-critical-skills-in-urban-resilience } 28 Saada Ally Salum and other students drain mapping in Manzese Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank the likelihood of flooding during Tanzania’s two rainy “Our house was seasons (in March/April and November/December). As her story shows, the consequences of flooding are flooded up to the disastrous for them, putting their homes, jobs, and lives at risk of loss or destruction. roof and we did not Situated partially upon a flood plain, and ever- have shelter for expanding under the combined pressure of climate change and rapid urbanization, the risk of flooding in three days.” Dar es Salaam is only increasing. TURP Annual Report 2018 This is what motivated Salum to participate in the second phase of Dar es Salaam’s Ramani Huria (Swahili Saada Ally Salum, of the deadly floodsthat affected the for “open map”) project—a city-wide, community-driven Jangwani area of Dar es Salaam in 2011. mapping initiative to t survey the existing drainage systems to better advise the city on flood mitigation. “Over these days, it was difficult for me to go to school and my exercise books were taken by the water.” The mapping itself is straightforward. Saada Ally Salum is one of the nearly 5 million “We are starting from the starting point and identifying } 29 inhabitants of Dar es Salaam, many of whom face where the water is flowing,” Salum explains. “We SPOTLIGHT STORY 01 identify point features, like a starting point of the Elizabeth Mrema, Assistant Director for Surveys and drain, or a place where water enters to the ocean or Mapping at Tanzania’s Ministry of Lands, Housing and lake. After that, we define whether it is a drain or a Human Settlement Development, emphasizes the ditch or a culvert.” critical role mapping plays. But the students go further than this to collect critical data “Maps are part of history, maps are planning,” she directly from community members in an effort to precisely insists. “Without maps, you cannot know where a identify the extent of flooding within each city ward. problem is, how big a problem is, or, when the problem comes, what will be affected.” “To collect this information, we use a form found on smartphones (Open Data Kit),” saysArdhi student, Leading into the next rainy season, under the guidance Asha Mohammed Mustafa, who displays the form. of consultants from the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap “This form gives you all the information, all the Team and 10 other Tanzanian students from the questions that you need to fill in.” project’s pilot who have now become trainers, Salum, Mustafa, and their fellow Ardhi students are mapping “The main issue is to know how many houses are an area covering a total of 44 wards, home to the being affected by flooding and how the depth [of majority of Dar es Salaam’s population. floodwater] has increased overtime,” she adds. “The goal is to enable a better understanding of the areas Beyond drainage networks, the students are mapping most affected.” health care services, toilets, water sources, and various other elements of urban infrastructure to While the students surveyed one particularly flood-prone provide more information that can guide the Tanzanian ward of the city, community leader Roya Marian Makolo government—from the local to national levels—in their explains how some members of his community cope. efforts to improve flood resilience and service delivery across the city. “During the rainy seasons, it can flood up to the level of your waist,” he says. “One family living nearby Ramani Huria data will further be used to inform other usually moves to my place during extreme flooding, World Bank initiatives relating to urban development their beds, kitchen pots all swamped. The children are and disaster risk management, and the project will so vulnerable,” he adds. “So we have to take them in not end with this particular level of intervention, but for at least three or four hours, and when the water includes plans for a bachelor’s degree curriculum on level goes down, they go back to their houses.” sustainable planning for resilience to be developed jointly between the World Bank and Ardhi University. Bella Bird, Country Director for Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi, and Somalia, notes: “This is a commitment the World Bank is making to improve Tanzania’s skill base, as the most critical area of investment for an industrializing economy.” By making this commitment, Ramani Huria will not TURP Annual Report 2018 simply prepare communities for disaster risk, but will transfer skills, knowledge, and tools to more students like Salum and Mustafa, who,as a result, will be better equipped to support sustainable urbanization, moving forward. As Mrs.Mrema puts it, “This all begins with a good map.” Roya Marian Makolo, community leader talking to students } Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank 30 Community members participating in the installation of weather stations Credit: Chris Morgan — World Bank Hydro-Meteorological Study stations, together with river discharge levels over the course of three days, October 24 to 27, in 2017. There has been a historical dearth of data on During this period, the Msimbazi experienced rainfall in Dar es Salaam due to a sparse monitoring a significant flood event and it was used as the network, and this has been detrimental to the ability reference for assessing flood control measures and of the GoT to take action on flooding. To address their impacts. this, TURP has worked with the Ministry of Water and Basin Authority, Delft University, and the Results of the hydrological study enabled by these Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory instruments have helped to calibrate a Msimbazi (TAHMO) to install monitoring instruments with the flood model, which identifies current and potential capability of recording precisely both rainfall and extent of flooding across the river basin — data that associated weather data across the city, as well as has been adopted into recommended interventions hydrological readings such as stream flow and river for the area. depth in the Msimbazi Basin. Two more instruments are to be installed during Over the course of the year, eight instruments were the next fiscal year, and consultants will create TURP Annual Report 2018 installed at five stations. These consisted of staff an open access platform for data download and gauges, radar-stage sensors, and ultrasonic sensors visualization from the hydromet stations. To date, for water level and discharge measurements. these data have been key to calibrate the Msimbazi flood model. With the introduction of a dashboard, With data collected by the TAHMO weather the network becomes useful for live monitoring stations surrounding the Msimbazi River Basin, and situation awareness and is expected to also flood modeling was conducted. The figure below demonstrate specific flood alerting and early shows the rainfall intensity at various TAHMO warning within the city. } 31 City Erosion and Sedimentation Study An important part of the flood risk story that has emerged is the critical impact of soil erosion and river TURP Annual Report 2018 sedimentation on flood dynamics. As such, studies were commissioned during FY18 to investigate the role of morphological (sediment deposition and erosion) processes in the rivers and streams of Dar es Salaam. These studies were carried out by Deltares in the Msimbazi River Delta and JBA Consultants at a city-wide scale to scan the main rivers of the city. The purpose is to better understand the influence that geomorphology has on flooding in the city, and, more specifically, to provide guidance on sustainable flood risk mitigation measures in Msimbazi River Basin and } wider areas within the city of Dar es Salaam. 32 The main objectives were to: • Carry out site visits across all drainage basins within the city to begin developing an understanding of the morphological processes at work, looking specifically at the dynamics of erosional processes, including causes and sources of material, and locations, formations and impact of sediment deposition. • Consult with local knowledge holders to obtain first-hand information and insight relating to the ongoing changes and processes relating to the rainfall run-off generation and geomorphology, including urban development, de-forestation and loss of vegetation cover, and the influence of solid waste. • Source, collect and review available data and information supporting more detailed analysis and quantification of the erosion and sedimentation processes. • Begin to consider the feasibility and practicality of mitigation strategies, both in terms of erosion control and flood risk reduction. TURP Annual Report 2018 Work is now underway to review the observations and data collected to understand the factors leading to erosion and sedimentation and identify appropriate mitigation strategies over various timescales. “The river and its floodplain should be considered as one single unit, rather than in separation. By modifying the floodplain through urban development, rivers will naturally respond.” } - Matthew Hemsworth, Geomorphologist JBA Consultants 33 Morphological Experts Inspect Lower Msimbazi River and Sediments, May 2018 Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank Flood Risk Evaluations and Visualization Tools MINI HIGHLIGHT In FY 17, TURP presented the work carried out by Anchor Environmental during 2014 – 2016, which included a flood loss model in the Msimbazi catchment. The report estimated average annual losses of US$47 million per year due to flooding. Th flood loss manual in Msimbazi catchment In 2018, work has focused on consulting and determining the requirements reported an estimate for a fully probabilistic flood risk model that would cover the Dar es Salaam average annual loss of metropolitan area, expanding beyond the Msimbazi. In addition, the model is $47 ambitious in its requirement to use improved datasets that are both affordable and locally acquirable. This will involve re-evaluating the Msimbazi catchment with up-to-date data as well. million Work to issue a competitive tender for this activity has been delayed, as the program uncovered challenges in establishing underlying input data sets. Several TURP Annual Report 2018 year due to investigations and local surveys were carried out to validate the digital elevation flooding model, which is considered a critical input, as well as ongoing work to collect river stream flow data and rainfall histories across eight sites in Dar es Salaam. In addition, the significance of geomorphological process, such as erosion and sedimentation in rivers, in the metropolitan area, has been raised as a priority. } 34 Dar es Salaam is demonstrating current feasibility in the use of satellite imagery for monitoring the Floor Space Index in African cities. New studies and data collection has also focused on establishing sediment loads of rivers and determining the requirements for a sediment monitoring system. As a result of increased focus on data collection and user requirements consultation, a tender will be reissued later in 2018. Results from a probabilistic flood model are expected in 2019. Satellite Monitoring Modern Earth observation and data analytic technologies have shown great advances and have the potential to help address the challenges that accompany rapid urbanization. The satellite monitoring pilot project, a collaboration between the World Bank and Planet Labs, aimed to leverage advanced Earth observation and analytics technologies to automatically detect and measure urban change in Dar es Salaam. Cloud cover historically has been a challenge when attempting to use satellite imagery for tropical locations and especially in the rainy seasons. Nonetheless, Planet Labs first demonstrated the feasibility of providing cloud-free quarterly image mosaics with a 3.7m resolution over the city. To pilot the methodology in Tanzania, building outlines from the Ramani Huria project were used to teach a machine learning model to recognize buildings in Dar es Salaam. This model was capable of detecting buildings with 77% accuracy in its first version. Using 0.8m stereoimagery, a 3D model of the downtown TURP Annual Report 2018 area of the city was also demonstrated, although with lower accuracies for identified number of floors. This project serves to demonstrate the current feasibility in the use of satellite imagery for monitoring the Floor Space Index in African cities. It is expected that within the next two to three years, many more satellite sources will become available and improvement in machine learning will continue; thus, the detection of new buildings and the rates of urbanization will be automatically detected across Tanzanian cities more affordably and with increasing accuracy. } 35 Results will be distributed among key stakeholders to assess viability of a possible follow-up project. 36 TURP Annual Report 2018 } Institutional Assessments and Risk Management Index The objective of this activity is to develop and apply a tool for the comprehensive assessment of institutional capacities and performance to identify, reduce, manage, and finance disaster risk in the Dar es Salaam region. Groundwork was done in FY17/18 with preliminary assessments of capacity of institutions and systems. A methodology is now being developed that leverages a limited number of aggregate disaster risk management indicators that can be easily interpreted Exposure data by policymakers. This methodology will allow the generation of a performance road mapfollowing accepted principles of disaster risk management, upon which Dar es Salaam Region’s stakeholders will be able to understand their status and progress against locally agreed objectives. A team led by Earthquake Megacities Initiative (EMI) has been selected and is in Aerial surveys the process of collecting baseline data to develop both an Urban Resilience Index of rivers as well as a Performance Road Map Scorecard. The first set of assessments is expected in late 2018 or early 2019. Challenges and Lessons Learned Risk information initiatives have had a critical role to play in the collection of data for all other activities of the TURP portfolio. The process of determining data collection requirements and reviewing existing datasets is a technical exercise Satellite subject to significant uncertainties and reliance on expert judgment. Delays in imagery verifying information, gaps in documentation and metadata, lack of clarity on licensing, and terms of use restrictions all have an impact on costs and timelines. Deadlines over FY 18 were ambitious, with some activities requiring more field work and additional surveys beyond what was originally expected. A few notable challenges were: • Exposure data — The data model and methodologies for verifying household data surveys have been iterated and tested, leading to Erosion and improvements in accuracy and replicability of results. This has also TURP Annual Report 2018 sedimentation increased time and costs involved, however. In addition, community mappers reported high financial expectations of community leaders and stakeholders for their cooperation in the project, and that rapidly changing building structures challengedtheir progress. • Aerial surveys of rivers — UAV mappers encountered delays and uncertainty inprocessing flight permits and facilitating communication in sensitive areas, weather given that the general regulatory regime is nascent and changing quickly. } 37 stations • Satellite imagery — The provider struggled to secure the necessary quality of data for the first version of the Floor Space Index for Dar es Salaam. • Erosion and sedimentation — Rates were found upon preliminary inspection to be significantly higher than expected and a major contributor to urban flooding, leading to a need to invest in geomorphology experts and studies. This led to new surveys and inspections, and a need for soil maps. • Weather stations — Consultants installing weather stations notedobstructive sedimentation in the river and the difficulty in siting stations. In addition, permission has not yet been granted to site a sample station nearby to the existing airport weather station for the purpose of data verification and comparison. This should not affect flood model calibration, but may delay the qualification process for an early warning demonstration. The majority of Pillar 1 activities have been fast-tracked as far as possible, and, with the exception of the probabilistic flood risk evaluation, most activities are in transition from the initial phase of data collection and model development towards a monitoring, updating, and training phase. It is also an overarching consideration, however, that many of these data collection and surveying techniques are novel and should undergo comprehensive stages of approval, capacity building, and knowledge transfer with various counterpart technical agencies. This is not only critical for ensuring that accurate and actionable datasets are obtained, but also for the long-term sustainability of data updates and analysis. Financials Over FY 18, Pillar 1 projects have disbursed US$1,204,482 with a total of US$1,650,000 since program start. Financial summaries are detailed in Section 8. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 38 Ramani Huria workshop participants BANK-EXECUTED GRANTS Pillar 2 Risk Reduction Measures and Planning Objective To strengthen cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce climate risk through the use of both structural and non- structural measures addressing long-term systemic risk. Overview of Progress Pillar 2 saw significant progress over FY 18, informed by the foundational work of Pillar 1. The key focus of this work was on the Lower Msimbazi Basin, to integrate the best available risk information together with a participatory approach to risk reduction in targeted communities and infrastructure in the city. This represents a deep dive into tackling a flood risk hotspot of Dar es Salaam, and the planning methods deployed have reflected the multidisciplinary and multidimensional nature of the challenge. In addition to concentrating on comprehensive risk reduction in the Msimbazi, a number of city-wide decision tools were launched, including plans and engagements to support community-level risk management, as well actionson solid waste management and drain maintenance. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 39 Morphological Experts Inspect Lower Msimbazi River and Sediments, May 2018 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Socioeconomic Studies FINALIZED Study concluded with 3 key recommendations Msimbazi Flood FINALIZED Data collected and flood models created Infrastructure Diagnostic 6 potential mitigation measures recommended Msimbazi Design Charrette ONGOING Monthly workshops conducted engaging critical and Special Planning Area stakeholders, 10 strategies conceptualized, and consensus found for a design vision Msimbazi River Basin ONGOING This output builds on the Msimbazi Design Management Framework Charrette work, and is expected to be delivered in August 2018 Msimbazi Displacement COMMENCED Recommendations prepared based on outcomes and Resettlement Strategy from the Msimbazi Charrette Community Level COMMENCED Formative studies finalized, community risk Risk Reduction maps developed, and contract signed. Drainage and Clean-ups ONGOING Prototyping and field validation tests conducted, Maintenance Information System community workshops and local government user testing complete. System requirements generated Participatory Climate Risk Plans, Procured N/A Training, Behaviour Change World CleanUp Day COMMENCED Contract signed and initial activities begun TURP Annual Report 2018 } 40 Socio-economic studies MINI In 2017, two socio-economic studies were launched with the aim to explore and quantify the HIGHLIGHT relationship between poverty and flood risk in Dar es Salaam, and to understand the village (Mtaa level) community resilience actions and networks. Poverty and Disasters Research DATA WAS COLLECTED FROM This focused particularly on the role of poverty in exposure (those affected by floods), vulnerability 1058 households (what is lost in floods) and socioeconomic resilience (how do the affected cope and recover). The goal is to understand how policy can strengthen resilience and to capture synergies between risk management and poverty reduction actions. These socio-economic studies have incorporated of households some of the work conducted for other TURP components. For example, the team used maps indicated that the based on Ramani Huria community mapping October 2017 flood activities to identify areas exposed to floods. was the most severe that the household To be able to assess the relationship between ever had experienced. poverty and disaster risk, the household surveys measure an accurate statistical estimation of household income. This is achieved through a rapid poverty assessment tool known as the Survey of Well-being via Instant and Frequent Tracking (SWIFT), which makes use of the latest machine learning techniques to produce economic estimates of the flood based on official country data. This method is events weaved into a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) questionnaire on household income, risk exposure that households indicate TURP Annual Report 2018 and socio-economic characteristics in one single being the most severe data collection effort. happened after 2014. In 2017, data was collected from 1058 households in Dar es Salaam – selected based on Ramani OF HOUSEHOLDS Huria and other sources that have defined flood affected in locations prone areas. that are not at risk } 41 Close to 24% of households reported being affected by a flood, including in locations that of housing and access to services between affected are not considered at risk. Some of this can be and not affected households were found, affected explained by the fact that some households do households do display lower ability to save, making not experience floods, but still must cope with them less able to cope with flood impacts. This indirect impacts through infrastructure disruption could be a result of dealing with recurrent floods (such as transport disruptions). A high proportion – 35% of affected households practice saving of households - 89% - indicated that the October compared to 48% of non-affected. 2017 flood was the most severe that the household ever had experienced. And 88% of the flood events Access to early warning is common and affected that households indicate being the most severe households have higher access - 59% of affected happened after 2014. households report having been warned of a flood in the past year in comparison to 46% among non- Affected households are significantly more affected households. While receiving weather food insecure that non-affected households, information from informal sources is common demonstrating a correlation between poverty and (warnings through neighbors and friends), a exposure to floods. This difference in levels of food significantly larger share of affected households insecurity between affected and non-affected that received a warning obtained the information households holds in high risk and low risk areas. from the Tanzanian Meteorological Agency (TMA) At this stage, it is difficult to say if exposure led than among non-affected households. to higher food insecurity or if relatively poorer households tend to settle in areas that frequently While a large share of households seems to be able flood. There is evidence for both and follow up to absorb shocks, some households have a difficult interviews are in process to shed light on this. time recovering. Whilst no important differences between quality TURP Annual Report 2018 } 42 Households experiencing flooding About 36% About 36% of affected households report not having recovered since being affected. These households seem to be less prepared than others. For example, of affected they have lower access to bank account, lower saving capacity and lower access to informal lending through social networks or community saving groups. households report In comparison to the rest of the households in the sample, these particular households have recently moved to the area, which is another explanation to not having why they may be less prepared to face shocks than other households. recovered Community resilience study since being This second socio-economic vulnerability study had a goal of undertaking action affected. researchinflood-affectedcommunitiesinordertohelpinformthesubsequentdesign of community disaster response plans and risk reduction plans for Dar es Salaam. Specifically, the research aimed to understand: (i) the landscape of pre-existing decision-making and emergency response as it related to flooding; (ii) the dynamics of community participation; and (iii) the uses and barriers to use of the Ramani Huria maps. The study involved 25 one-on-one interviews in six different Subwards, five stakeholder meetings, and five community focus groups. Interviews included Subward chairmen; Subward executive officers; Subward mjumbe (representatives); Ward executive officers; Ward health and community development officers; fire TURP Annual Report 2018 } 43 community department officers, and members of the Tanzanian Red Cross. Stakeholder meetings involved officials from the Tanzanian government, including the responses Disaster Management Department and the President’s Office – Regional to flood and Local Government, municipal bodies such as the Dar es Salaam Multi- Agency Emergency Response Team (DarMAERT), and the NGOs Twaweza and Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team. Two focus groups were conducted with below community ‘10-cell leaders’ while another three focus groups were conducted with residents of four different flood-affected wards. knee focus on The study established a baseline for current community responses to floods, safe guarding levels of participation, and uses of maps and demonstrated that perceptions of possessions and what constitutes flooding varies, as do responses to different types of flooding. facilitating flow When water is below the knee, actions tend to involve safeguarding possessions of water and facilitating the flow of water. When water is above the knee, temporary evacuation is the preferred response. above Despite flood response being largely uncoordinated, there are dense networks knee of mutual aid in many communities, which can help households deal with flood- related emergencies. For most community members, the Subward chairman is focus on the key figure for issues relating to safety and security, though these chairmen temporary often felt underequipped to deal with flooding specifically. Community evacuation participation in local government initiatives is high. However, volunteer groups suffer from the continuing pressures of urban life “ The impact of flooding is felt by women especially as we have to look after our families. We are becoming separated because we have to move from our homes to find another place, and TURP Annual Report 2018 we are spoiling our health because the water is polluted. It also affects our children, they miss school, their exercise books are spoiled. But I can see that the government is listening because if they were not listening, we would not have been here.” } 44 - Habiba Mondoma, Community Member and widespread expectations of remuneration. Access to and awareness of the Ramani Huria maps is low at the Mtaa level, and the lack of familiarity with complex maps is a barrier. Despite this, local government officials express interest. Based on these findings, the study made three recommendations. 1. Engagement with the Subward level of government would be the most appropriate for moving forward with the design and dissemination of community disaster response plans and risk reduction plans. 2. The existence of mutual aid networks should be further investigated, as these provide a practical form of ‘everyday’ resilience for many. 3. The maps used in the planning process should be differentiated to meet the needs of different government levels and to maximize their accessibility. Further field research will be undertaken, and after the first rainy season. This research will focus on pre- existing networks of mutual aid, including Village Community Banks (VICOBA) , informal rotating credit associations known as upatu, and ujirani mwema (good neighbour) community groups. A key aim will be to better understand how these pre-existing groups may positively impact community resilience to flood risks, combining analysis of SWIFT surveys with nested qualitative research. Msimbazi Flood Infrastructure Diagnostic TURP Annual Report 2018 } 45 Figure 1 Comparison of Differences in Modelled Flood Extent in Lower Msimbazi Basin for a 1 in 10 year Flood event Pillar 1 provided for baseline hazard and exposure data used to develop a custom model for lower Msimbazi river. This modelling exercise ran a number of flood scenarios in the Msimbazi against a range of possible flood control measures in order to explore the options for how to mitigate the flooding and identify which areas are most at risk. The key conclusion from the modelling is that it is feasible for flood control interventions to achieve substantial reduction in flood hazards in lower Msimbazi. A combination of river training (deepening and widening) with adjustments to the Jangwani bridge and culverts should be short term priorities. Upstream measures for water retention and erosion management will be necessary also, however these will not provide the same degree of short term flood reduction as the lower basin measures. Overall, it is possible to ensure that some areas of the lower Msimbazi can remain dry to during flood event, but very impractical to prevent flooding across the entire basin and therefore some degree of accepting the flood waters is necessary. This involves planning for floods and setting land aside for water retention when necessary. Envisaged flood risk reduction measures provide potential for further spatial development and an opportunity to reimagine the basin as a city park. Analysis was further used to identify six potential mitigation measures to address the critical state of flooding in this area: A. River training between Jangwani and Selander Bridge B. Widening and Heightening Jagwani Bridge C. River widening from Jangwani Upstream D. Widening Kawawa Bridge E. Opening Culverts F. Upstream Measures A combination of A, B, C, and E is now being recommended to the Government of Tanzania for consideration. Contrasting modelled flood extents (Figure 1) shows that adopting interventions A, B, and C alone can significantly reduce the impact of a 1 in 10 year flood by increasing the conveyance capacity of the river and reducing peak water levels and the sedimentation problems. The Morogoro bridge and road (and hence Bus Services) remains dry, as do large area of the basin and local communities. The flood risk to other assets such as Muhumbili Hospital is lowered. The flood depth hydrograph (Figure 2) also illustrates the dramatic reduction in flood duration. The green curve represents the depth and duration of flooding when A, B and C interventions are combined, and flooding is seen to reduce from a peak of approximately 1 meter to scarcely 10 cm. TURP Annual Report 2018 Further, the duration of flooding is reduced from three days to a few hours. These curves are representative for the flood model results at the Bus Rapid Transit depot location immediate upstream of Janagwani bridge west. However flooding is not entirely prevented across the valley and therefore medium and longer term measures will also be needed upstream – such as retention basins, reforestation, and other activities to reduce peak water. In addition, the lower Msimbazi will have to accommodate some level of flood waters and } water holding – seen in the images, the greatest extent and deepest area of flooding is the dark blue region 46 Figure 2 Reduction in Modeled Flood Depth and Duration at Jangwani Bridge resulting from top three priority interventions A, B, C corresponding to the wetland area immediately Thus far stakeholders have been engaged through upstream of the eastern end of Jangwani bridge. monthly workshops with excellent attendance, upwards of 60-70 participants in each workshop, Further modelling work is underway to analyze have managed to develop a set of ten overarching the 1 in 100 year flood events as well as impacts of strategies for managing different elements of upstream interventions. the basin, and have agreed on a design vision for the lower basin. A final framework and plan Msimbazi Charrette are expected by the end of August 2018 – high- and Special Planning Area level officials have already taken interest, with the Minister of Environment, Minister of PO- A process of participatory, rapid, decision-making to RALG, and Mayors from the City Council, Ilala solve a complex urban problem using an interactive and Kinondoni having been briefed on the process and visual approach – known as a design charrette and expecting updates once the design is finalized. – was adopted for the lower Msimbazi basin. Given the long-standing problems of flooding, urbanization, As previously noted, through a hydrodynamic flood and environmental degradation in the 200km2 model, the charrette consultants have been able to Msimbazi catchment, in addition to an institutional test different types of drainage interventions as inertia to solve the problem in a comprehensive and well as land use scenarios to determine the impact coordinated way, the use of a charrette process was on flooding and gauge where households and deemed as an appropriate approach. infrastructure are most at risk and benefit most from different scenarios. This aims to provide the analytical basis for This has been instrumental for stakeholders to TURP Annual Report 2018 informed decision-making around mitigating floods in this area. Outputs from this process understand the flood impacts of various basin plans are in the form of: (a) a Strategic Development & proposed and supports comparisons of results Management Framework; (b) a detailed plan for the based on a consistent application of the same flood Lower Msimbazi; (c) a new boundary for Msimbazi analytics across all scenarios. Special Planning Area; and (d) a flood model calibrated specifically for assessing the benefit of Three different philosophies have also been interventions in their lower basin. presented through this process for the Special Area } 47 Planning of the Lower Msimbazi Basin. These include: 1. Asset Islands - Raising assets and formalizing them into multi-storey buildings and allowing the rest of the area to flood 2. Wetland Park - Trying to restore the ecology of the lower Msimbazi and allowing as much flooding a possible to move t hrough – more resettlement, relocating wastewater treatment plant 3. River Front - Focus on regeneration along the boundaries – much greater degree of urbanization and densification Final conclusions from the Msimbazi Charette will be provided at the end of August 2018 and presented to high level politicians prior to their public debut at the Understanding Risk Tanzania conference. From concepts to three legitimate alternatives TURP Annual Report 2018 } 48 An artistic depiction of what the city could look like with a wetland and city park HIGHLIGHTS 8 MONTHS TO CREATE & AGREE ON OVERALL VISION a set of strategies for managing the catchment, and a conceptual plan for flood control, development, environmental improvements and open space for the lower basin. 14 NATIONAL 02 MUNICIPALITIES 17 SUBWARDS AGENCIES AND THE CITY COUNCIL Workshop Results All 17 subwards in the lower basin have been involved and consulted several times on the plans, with an emphasis on housing and resettlement options for those households in unsafe hazard areas. TURP Annual Report 2018 As a result of the charrette, the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development was supported to form a task force and start the process to update the boundary around the Msimbazi and georeference it as a Special Planning Area. } 49 Spotlight Story the Msimbazi Charrette TURP Annual Report 2018 } 50 Charrette french/ noun 1. An intensive planning session where citizens, designers and others collaborate on a vision for development 2. A period of intense work in order to meet a deadline TURP Annual Report 2018 } 51 SPOTLIGHT STORY 02 “The Msimbazi Charrette has taught us that, together, through dedicated partnerships involving community members, Government and development partners, important steps towards taking action can be achieved, and targeted investments can be effectively defined to build a resilient and more livable city,” - Bella Bird, World Bank Country Director for Tanzania, Malawi, Burundi and Somalia. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 52 Earlier this year, a state of emergency was declared to increase. With inadequate services and for Tanzania’s capital city as heavy rains inundated infrastructure, both the communities and the city city roads, destroying critical infrastructure, are at increased risk for flooding. paralyzing the city and resulting in 15 reported “It is making deaths. Many of the deaths occurred in Jangwani, an unplanned neighborhood near the city center it harder, that straddles the Msimbazi river. “The water is endangering our lives,” said Mama Habiba, who lives in Jangwani. “There’s a lot of contamination and many people get sick as result. especially for The flooding also affects our children’s studies as their books, clothes, and mattresses get spoiled. It women, to look is making it harder, especially for women, to look after their families.” after their families.” TURP Annual Report 2018 Despite this vulnerable location, Habiba is one of more than three million people living in communities like Jangwani, most of them concentrated along the Msimbazi river basin. “We have been experiencing increased human activity upstream in the Msimbazi,” said Nyariri Poverty, rapid population growth and a shortage Nanai, an engineer within the President’s Office of affordable housing have led to the development Regional Administration and Local Government of unplanned communities, and they are predicted (PO-RALG). } 53 SPOTLIGHT STORY 02 54 TURP Annual Report 2018 } “These activities contribute to erosion, causing stakeholders, including the community who has really sedimentation, leading to flooding downstream.” experienced the problems of flooding,” Nanai said. This led to the adoption of an ACCA approach—Awareness, To address this challenge, PO-RALG, in partnership Comprehension, Commitment, and Action—which with the World Bank, have been championing the aims totakethevery complex challenge of flooding and Msimbazi Charrette initiative, an urban design process come to mutually agreed, implementable solutions. that draws on the views and experiences of various stakeholders who foresee a more resilient basin. Now in its final stages, the initiative is expected to “The Tanzania Urban Resilience Program has created this platform where all these stakeholders come and design together,” said Mussa Natty, and engineer and a lack of affordable former Municipal Director and Urban Development Specialist. “This also makes decision-making easier.” housing with The Msimbazi Charrette applied a team of local and access to services and economic international experts, who worked with engineers, planners, community leaders, and high-level government officials in a dedicated workshop. “We didn’t want a top-down solution, so once opportunities of the the solution is there, it means it is agreed by all city center. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 55 Landuse Plain SPOTLIGHT STORY 02 produce a framework to guide a basin investment Beth Arthy, Head of the UK Department for program, and a detailed plan for the lower basin, International Development (DFID) in Tanzania including a city park, housing and commercial praised the consultative nature of the process. development. The initiative is also building resilience, by producing a flood model that can be used to “We need to continue to build on the momentum of design sustainable flood control infrastructure. the Charrette and the positive habits of cooperation and collaboration that have been developed so far,” With a framework and other elements in place, the she said. “We need to make sure the voices we’ve initiative aims to help catalyze investment from heard remain front and center as we move from government, private sector, and development commitment to action.” partners to restore the highly-vulnerable flood plain into a city asset. Habiba and other citizens who participated in the consultations are just as optimistic. “The Msimbazi Charrette has taught us that, together, through dedicated partnerships involving community “I can see the authorities are listening, because if members, the government and development they were not listening, we would not have reached partners, important steps towards taking action this stage,”she said. “We are proud to be working can be achieved, and targeted investments can be together with government and stakeholders in effectively defined to build a resilient and more livable this process.” city,” said Bella Bird, World Bank Country Director for Tanzania, Malawi, Burundi and Somalia. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 56 Landuse Plain it is expected that the Community Level Risk Reduction CRRP will strengthen A Community Risk-Reduction project kicked-off in community resilience by May 2018 that will involve the creation of a toolkit for helping the community the development Community Risk-Reduction Plans (CRRP) at the ward and sub-ward levels, as well as to identify critical support for the development and implementation of these plans by local Disaster Management infrastructure and Committees in the most flood-affected sub-wards establish priorities of Dar es Salaam. It is expected that the CRRP will strengthen community resilience by helping the for community community to identify critical infrastructure and establish priorities for community infrastructure infrastructure spending spending through existing government channels through existing and other potential sources of funds. government channels and Activities completed to date have focused on project preparation and inception, and these are being led other potential sources of by a consortium consisting of Deltares, Oxford Policy Management (OPM), TRCS, Ardhi University, funds. and FloodTags. In parallel to this, the Ramani Huria teamh as piloted efforts to develop community risk maps. These community risk maps will serve as inputs to inform Disaster Management Committee discussions in developing the CRRPs. Nipe Fagio outcomes Early in FY19, training of trainer programs for the remaining 5 municipalities will be taking place. An TURP Annual Report 2018 intensive 3-5 day solid waste hotspot and drainage waste hotspot GIS mapping program for Dar es Salaam will also be supported by the World Bank Ramani Huria team, to help identify critical waste accumulation and areas to clean for World Cleanup Day. } 57 Although the project is still in its inception phase, evidence from the socio- economic vulnerability study shows that there is clear need to identify problem infrastructure: • Residents living in flood-prone areas highlight that though they take part, clean up does not stop flooding. “The problem is upstream,” one person explained. “ All the garbage from the areas upstream of us gets washed down to where we live and causes flooding.” • Households take precautions ahead of rain to prevent water getting into their houses (see below). Yet, as one local resident explained, the risks from even a small amount of rain remain high: “people have died, children have died, because the water infrastructure has degraded so badly that when it floods, the dirty water gets into the pipes and people get sick” World Cleanup Day Nipe Fagio, Swahili for ‘give me the broom’, is a Tanzanian civil society organization founded in 2013 that aims to empower communities, the civil society, private sector and government to build lasting change through collaborative education and awareness raising programs across several areas, including solid waste management. This year, Let’s Do It Global Foundation appointed Nipe Fagio as the lead Tanzania partner for what has been called ‘the largest positive civic lead movement in the world’ aiming to have 5% of the world population cleaning up on World Cleanup Day, September 15, 2018. 01 8 high-level training multi-sector of trainer project launch programs TURP Annual Report 2018 8 multi-sector an extensive number of project intro community clean-ups events awareness raising social media campaign } 58 Due to the correlation between poor solid waste and increased flooding as well as several other human and environmental risk issues, support is being provided to Nipe Fagio for this initiative with specific emphasis on establishing/conducting: 1. A comprehensive solid waste hotspot map for Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, identifying locations and drainage systems with extensive solid waste accumulation and/or blockages. 2. A nation-wide network of civil society organizations, private sector, and government stakeholders trained on the importance of improved solid waste management and empowered to take action through conducting training, awareness raising, and community cleanup events focused on 11 municipalities. 3. One nation-wide cleanup event on World Cleanup Day (September 15, 2018) directly facilitated in 11 municipalities across the country focused on cleaning up rivers to mitigate floods and about 45 smaller cleanup events prior to World Cleanup Day, in total engaging about 5% of the Tanzanian working population. It is expected that project outputs will be the catalysts for future flood mitigation projects, inform decision making on required intensive waste cleanup efforts, and provide foundational partnerships and collaboration for improved solid waste management initiatives across the country. Drains and River Maintenance System During 2017, TwaaMtaro (Adopt a Drain) was developed as an interactive web and mobile tool aiming to provide decision support and local coordination for timely clean-up actions in advance of heavy rain predictions. Prototypes were user tested and some piloting conducted in order to solicit user feedback and iterate design requirements. A key activity was to broaden the scope of users and map out the decision chains. It became evident that the primary need for such a tool was not only as a risk-reduction system, but to provide decision support to both ex-ante preparedness actions at local level (and Early Warning to Early Action system), as well as ex-post assessments and situation awareness once a flood has occurred (a rapid response and situational assessment tool). As such, system requirements have been significantly redesigned around DarMAERT feedback and this activity has evolved into an emergency response plan support tool. Although preparedness actions and clean-up remain an important action area, the broader effort is now housed as a Pillar 3 activity and detailed further in the next section. TURP Annual Report 2018 Challenges and Lessons Learned During FY 18, many Pillar 2 activities transitioned from concept into action, a critical step that has resulted in substantial program progress. This was, however, a process involving many transactions and workflow complexities. It demanded alignment between the readiness of data inputs with the awareness and engagement of planning stakeholders at central, municipal, and local levels, who were asked to commit significant time to the process. } 59 • Msimbazi flood model calibration and validation was delayed due to uncertainties in digital elevation model verification, expert disagreement on model schematization, and dynamic capabilities. It emerged that in order to develop an actionable flood model result that would improve upon prior efforts and reduce uncertainties, a great deal of expert judgment and data calibration was necessary. Eventually a second flood model was developed using alternative modeling concepts as part of the process to establish confidence in model results. This resulted in three months’ delay and restructuring to the charrette planning activity. • Fatigue by stakeholders engaged in the Design Charrette resulting from the frequent meetings, perception of slow progress, and challenging endeavor of striking a balance between technical rigor and mobilization. The team realized a need to carefully curate and communicate the preliminary model results — as this at times could confuse participants — as well as develop regular updates and progress notes for stakeholders. • Consultants working on the Community Risk Plans determined that while the ideal risk management structure — also codified in the 2015 Disaster Management Act — called for the activation of village level (Mtaa) disaster management committees, these did not in fact exist in reality in most sub-wards. The design of the community risk-planning process was therefore confronted with an option to change scope and either focus on the creation and activation of 40 community disaster management committee, or on the ward-level planning processes and existing development committees. A plan for engagement and developing the community risk-management toolkits is expected in August 2018 to review and address this issue. • The drains maintenance and clean-up decision support tool was determined to have stronger ownership at the municipal level and to be of greater utility at the local level if designed as an emergency management system with both early warning and early action support as well as response and recovery reporting features. Financials Pillar 2 projects were allotted funding from three grants: Risk Mitigation Planning, Msimbazi River Revitalization, and SWIFT Surveys on Poverty and Floods. Funds disbursed by these grants amounted to US$959,434. Financial summaries are detailed in Section 8. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 60 BANK-EXECUTED GRANTS Pillar – 3 Emergency Management and Response Objective To strengthen the capacity of stakeholders involved in short-term disaster events and preparedness tocope with specific emergency scenarios. Overview of Progress Activities under Pillar 3 made use of outputs from Pillars 1 and 2, resulting in the implementation and scale-up of many projects. Many of these projects have directly benefitted the DarMAERT in their integrated efforts to coordinate response to potential shock across the hub of Dar es Salaam. Emergency Response Plan As of mid-2017 DarMAERT has been supported to procure and train on emergency communications equipment, and to develop an Emergency Response Plan, launched in September 2017. This plan includes: • Background information on disaster risk in Dar es Salaam • Outline of disaster management framework and response structure • Purpose of the DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan • Scope of the DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan • Detailed overview of Emergency Response Operations • Plan for Emergency Response Activation • Steps for implementation and review TURP Annual Report 2018 } 61 ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Emergency Response Plan FINALIZED DarMAERT Emergency Response Plans translated into Swahili, currently in implementation Emergency Communications FINALIZED Equipment distributed and installed, improving Network emergency communication in Dar es Salaam from 50% to 100% Training, Exercises, COMMENCED Contract signed and initial plans set for kickoff and Drills Emergency Operations Center COMMENCED Contract signed and initial plans set for kickoff Support - Structure Emergency Management ONGOING Piloting and user requirements completed; Information System system design ongoing. Transport Emergency ONGOING Support for a situational assessment and Preparedness and Response contingency plan for Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit bus system. Damage Assessment Support FINALIZED Support to DarMAERT for aerial surveys and mapping post floods in December 2017 and April 2018. Community Response Plans COMMENCED Project preparation and inception initiated, ToR developed, and contract signed TURP Annual Report 2018 Early Warning System Pilot ONGOING 8 weather stations have been installed for early warning, and 2 more are to be installed in September 2018. A functional early warning demonstration project expected in late 2018. } 62 HIGHLIGHTS 50% to 100% Expansion of emergency coverage radio stations installed repeater stations installed TURP Annual Report 2018 mobile stations installed } 63 Spotlight Story Elevating Emergency Response TURP Annual Report 2018 Related Link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2018/03/09/ elevating-emergency-response-in-tanzania } 64 TURP radio installation, July 2017 Credit: Chris Morgan — World Bank infrastructure, but also for improved capacity to With its population respond to disasters. of approximately 4.5 In 2011 alone, Dar es Salaam was impacted by two major emergencies. An ammunition depot explosion million expected to that occurred in February of that year left 30 dead double by 2030, Dar and scores homeless with the destruction of 1,693 households. Later that year, in December, heavy es Salaam is on its rains caused widespread flooding, which impacted 50,000 people and claimed about 41 lives. According TURP Annual Report 2018 way to becoming a to official figures, the emergency response and recovery activities cost the GoT TZS5.8 billion, mega city. in regard to the explosion, and more than TZS 1.8 billion for the flooding. The metropolitan area is currently made up of five municipalities and covers 1,350 km2. But with If one thing was highlighted by these two events, it was continued population growth, there will be increased that the emergencies and disaster response could be } demand not only for essential services and better better coordinated under a city-wide plan of action. 65 SPOTLIGHT STORY 03 In 2011 alone, Dar The plan provides a strict framework for management, coordination, and control within es Salaam was which a team of responders can go about their work during emergencies. impacted by two major emergencies From 50% to 100% emergency coverage The DarMAERT, a pilot collaboration, is the first initiative of its kind in Tanzania that brings together A good system, regardless of its objective, is normally emergency response stakeholders in a partnership comprised of two important elements: protocols to serve as the “tactical branch” of the Dar es Salaam and equipment. Prior to the DarMAERT partnership, Regional Disaster Management Committee. only half of the city was covered by an emergency communication network. With an addition of three The partnership is supported under the UKAID and WB repeater stations, four radio base stations, six mobile partnership, TURP, which recognizes the importance stations, 31 radio handsets, and six table phones of a strong emergency response network prepared to procured on behalf of Dar es Salaam, coverage has mobilize in the unfortunate event of disaster. now reached 100% of the metropolitan area. Clear emergency coordination As noted by the World Bank’s Senior Urban and Disaster Risk Management Specialist, Eric Dickson, On October 20, 2017, Dar es Salaam city authorities however, “For DarMAERT to become an effective launched the DarMAERT Emergency Response response agency, challenges of training, coordination, Plan after a consultative and collaborative process. and equipment must be overcome.” The Emergency Response Plan has been designed to ensure that those charged with tackling the Further collaboration will thus prioritize the complete emergency (i) know their role; (ii) are competent to dissemination of the Emergency Response Plan, as carry out the tasks assigned to them; (iii) have access well as the development of emergency response to available resources and facilities; and (iv) work and recovery capacity through targeted exercises, together in a partnership. training, and drills. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 66 TURP radio installation, July 2017 Credit: Chris Morgan — World Bank Training, Exercises, and Drills The Dar es Salaam Emergency Response Plan is an initial version that will require a “test drive” and must be reviewed, updated, and complemented with detailed standard operating procedures and a strengthened Emergency Operations Center. To this end, a consortium led by EMI was selected for the development and implementation of a comprehensive two-year Training, Exercises, and Drills (TED) Program. This activity/project seeks to improve emergency response capabilities of the key agencies that are part of the DarMAERT. The TED Program will be rolling out over the next fiscal year and it is set to include the following activities: • Design and implement structured training program comprised of a series of skills and training courses to build competency in the field of emergency response and recovery. • Design and conduct a series of exercises Community members hold knowledge and drills aimed at operationalizing and testing critical to improving risk management the DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan, providing training andcommunication facilities, and improving coordination and efficiency of operations among key DarMAERT members. • Prepare Standard Operating Procedures for core DarMAERT members. • Propose the structure of the Emergency Operations Center and the protocols for its operation and management. • Provide suggestions for improving emergency preparedness for effective response and recovery. TURP Annual Report 2018 • Identify strengths and challenges in implementation of DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan and provide suggestion for improvement. } 67 Emergency responder Credit: Chris Morgan — World Bank Flooding damages to the buses and Jangwani depot Transport Emergency Emergency Management Preparedness and Response Information System In light of Dar es Salaam’s multiple flood events that took The Emergency Management Information System (EMIS) place over the year, the BRT system was found to be is a collaborative platform to facilitate communication, particularly vulnerable with widespread consequences planning, and actions (to mitigate and be prepared) during for city authorities and residents. During the 13 months (to improve response) and after a disaster (to aid recovery). from April 2017 to May 2018, six floods significantly impacted the BRT operations in Dar es Salaam. EMIS develops upon last year’s TwaaMtaro pilot, which laid the foundation for data analysis and community The recent floods resulted in significant immediate engagement with the goal of tackling flooding in Dar and short-term impacts to the operations, such as the es Salaam. The platform integrates emergency data closure of Morogoro Road, disruptions of bus service from different sources, such as stakeholders’ contacts, availability during the events and their aftermath, and emergency activities and tasks, drainage data, damages to the bus fleet. geographical features, weather data, topographical and physical data, as well as records of economic and Support was therefore provided to the GoT’stransport TURP Annual Report 2018 social damage. authorities for emergency preparedness and response for the Dar es Salaam BRT system to identify the BRT Over FY 18, a series of community and stakeholder operational challenges and provide recommendations hearings and co-creation workshops were convened and options to manage operations under flooding to co-design the features of EMIS and establish a emergencies and, in particular, for the management sustainable institutional arrangement for the platform. of the Jangwani Depot and other critical assets. } International experts shared their experience in 68 emergency preparedness and response practices. however, led to a two-month delay until flights In particular, the staff from New York City related above the city could be arranged. Tanzania Flying experience in managing disasters from response Labs was requested by DarMAERT in 2017 to fly through recovery. The experts also discussed next the Mbezi and Msimbazi Lower Basin flood plains, steps and made recommendations for the management and before and after imagery was hosted online for of bus operations in emergency situations. A multi- easy interpretation of impacts. These flights, while stakeholder workshop on emergency management for not immediately after the floods, did highlight the Dar es Salaam BRT system was held on May 24, 2018, higher dynamic nature of the river systems and the with over 40 participants from local agencies. congested character of the land along the river banks. In the case of the Mbezi River, significant river course The workshop identified priorities and concluded that changes and housing damage is seen. there exists a need to convene all the stakeholders at once using standard procedures. Aroad map of next Additional drone surveys were conducted in April steps was developed with a view to implementing a 2018 by DarMAERT, this time procured from coordinated operational emergency preparedness and AfricanDrone using TURP support, with similar goals response plan. This road map covers the short (June to establish high-resolution baseline data from which to August 2018), medium (before the rainy season in river changes, buildings collapse, and broader city 2019) and long term. impacts can be tracked. Damage Assessment Support To date, these surveys are limited to supporting decisions on river and basin management and seasonal In addition to the thematic focus on the critical damage assessments. Near-real-time services, such transport infrastructure and transport services, as situational awareness of ongoing floods and DarMAERT was also supported with the acquisition rapid damage assessments just after foods recede, and use of low-cost, high-resolution drone surveys for are possible but will require further streamlining damage assessment. Initial request from DarMAERT of emergency operating procedures with flight followed the October 27, 2017 flooding events; a permitting processes. lack of familiarity with the permitting procedures, TURP Annual Report 2018 } Before and After Floods - Imagery from Drone and Satellite of 69 Mbezi River December 2017 [DarMAERT 2017] PILLAR 3 Community Disaster Response Plans HIGHLIGHT Initial steps were taken to prepare a toolkit for the creation of Community Disaster Preparedness and Response Plans (CDPRP) at the sub-ward level, with On October 20, plans to further support the development and implementation of these plans 2017 by Sub-ward Disaster Management Committees in the most flood-affected sub- DarMAERT wards of Dar es Salaam. The CDPRP will strengthen community resilience with the development and dissemination of clear and effective protocols of how to Emergency respond in the event of a flood. The target number of communities is 40 mtaas; Response Plan this number, however, is subject to revision based on a piloting phase of four was launched by community plans. Dar es Salaam city authorities Early Warning Pilot Studies have shown that EWSs could contribute up to 36:1 in terms of benefit – costs ratios in developing countries. They are often non-functional, however, due to lack of weather and streamflow data. This challenge is being addressed through a partnership with the Delft University of Technology and TAHMO, through the establishment of a dense network of ground-observing stations. This network will demonstratenear-real-time reliable data to improve numerical weather predictions and flood forecasting in Dar es Salaam. As noted under Pillar 1, the work done to support EWSs so far has involved the provision of a dense network of ground-observing stations, including eight Automatic Weather Stations installed with two additional stations planned for September 2018, and eight robust hydrological monitoring stations (five staff gauges, one radar-stage sensor, and two ultrasonic sensors). TURP Annual Report 2018 } 70 A dense network of ground-observing stations is being established Credit: Chris Morgan — World Bank These stations were set up and data has been made available via an Application Programming Interface for the development and calibration of models for EWSs and river basin management in WamiRuvu. Capacity-building programs for the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MoWI) and the WamiRuvu River Basin Water Board (WRBWB) were additionally carried out. In total, four face- to-face formal trainings and continuous on-the- job training were conducted. The training covered stationsiting, installation, operation, and data retrieval and processing. Other training programs are planned for September – December 2018. These will include training for gauge readers, teachers, and hosts of stations in collaboration with the TMA, and product development and operational use of the data collected by the monitoring stations by the MoWI and WRBWB officers. “With the help of EWS – if intensive rainfall might occur, we would inform communities surrounding that basin or living in Dar es Salaam about the flooding that might occur for them to take precautions. Eventually, we will also look at the purity level of water – how clean or dirty it is - so that people can take precautions on that as well.” - Julietha Alfred Maajaliwa, Ministry of Water and Irrigation Challenges and Lessons Learned Preparedness and Emergency Responseactivities have been vital to several government-led responses to emergency events that have taken place over the past year. This has effectively tested their quality, relevance, and value within rather early stages of implementation. TURP Annual Report 2018 The relatively active and destructive rain events of the past year have also proven to be a significant challenge, with many city stakeholders caught by surprise by the high frequency of flooding. This was especially true in the case of transport operations, with indirect consequences for many residents who rely on network for their livelihoods. Challenges associated with implementation have therefore centered around the tension for resources and time between responding to short-term needs and urgency and maintaining a focus on the overall system strengthening and management functions for long-term outcomes. } 71 Some specific challenges and lessons have been: • Difficulties arose within the procurement of emergency response equipment for DarMAERT, challenged by conflicting procurement procedures between the Regional Administrative Secretary (RAS) and the World Bank, as well as a lack of storage space within DarMAERT facilities. • Delays in contracting the consultants for the TED program have slowed progress. • The executive status of DarMAERT remains uncertain, delaying plans for project implementation. • A lack of government resources for the creation and activation of village-level Disaster Management Committees mandated in the 2015 Act has led to confusion at ward and sub-ward levels on the guidelines for implementing these groups. Financials Over FY 18, Pillar 3 projects were allotted funding amounting to US$385,212. Financial summaries are detailed in Section 8. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 72 BANK-EXECUTED GRANTS Resilience Academy “This is a commitment the World Bank is making to improve Tanzania’s skill base, as the most critical area of investment for an industrializing economy.” – Bella Bird, World Bank Country Director for Tanzania, Burundi, Somalia, and Malawi Objective To maximize program impact and sustainability through the establishment of university partnerships that transfer skills and risk management tools to the next generation of urban planners. Overview of Progress The Resilience Academy has evolved in scope and content over the course of the fiscal year, growing in prominence and becoming its own fourth pillar to the TURP. At the outset, the program was modest and suffered budget cuts in mid-2017, seeking to transfer curriculum, datasets, and provide practical experience for universities students in urban resilience. The goal of the Resilience Academy is to provide long-term impact of methodologies and best practices developed under TURP by embedding them into the university curricula. This will ultimately support the expansion of the program across the country and is intended to improve understanding of the whole extent, exposure, and vulnerability of flooding in communities across Tanzania. An MoU was signed with Ardhi University in the first year of TURP which was provided a template for cooperation on: • Ramani Huria – open source tools for exposure mapping and urban data collection • Trainings in basic risk information analyses, such as InaSafe • Support for Resilience Labs at the university • Training of Research staff and students on use of survey drones and other geospatial mapping instruments TURP Annual Report 2018 • Training and maintenance of hydromet stations; • Engagement in university conference and events for GIS, computer science, urban planning • Accreditation of a curriculum for risk mapping } 73 Resilience Academy MoU The Steering Committee approved the development of an expanded scope with Ardhi University signing ceremony and concept note for extending engagement with three additional universities in Tanzania: University of Dar es Salaam, State University of Zanzibar, and Sokoine University. In addition, partnerships with international universities and researchers to actively utilize and contribute to risk datasets and tools are encouraged and preliminary work with Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) and Turku University has begun. ACTIVITY STATUS PROGRESS Curriculum for Risk Mapping ONGOING A community mapping cookbook was developed to document Ramani Huria methods and outline a university curriculum to teach them Climate Risk Database Pending An online climate risk data portal Is expected for Research to provide access for researchers In at least four Tanzanian universities working on climate risk. In addition, this portal should facilitate International partnerships for local universities TURP Annual Report 2018 to train, analyse and added to the climate risk knowledge base. So far, discussion have taken place between Ardhi, UDSM, SUZA, and Sokoine, with support form Turku University. Capacity Building and Training in ONGOING Industry placement commenced, equipping Risk Data and Systems over 300 students with community mapping skills and tools } 74 Curriculum for Risk Mapping RESILENCE ACADEMY As a first step, the University of Twente ITC Faculty of Geo-Information Science HIGHLIGHT and Earth Observation was given the assignment to review the approach of Ramani Huria and develop a comprehensive curriculum for universities. A review of the Ramani Huria approach appears in a “cookbook,” providing others with knowledge of how to replicate the approach in their own participatory mapping project. The first draft of this cookbook was provided in June 2018 and is currently being reviewed by local and international experts. Practical master’s projects on informal settlement regularization have already been conducted by Ardhi University as a result of high demand from students and university departments. During FY 18, a number of workshops were additionally held with representatives from local universities to discuss where the various aspects of Ramani Huria can a ‘cookbook’ be included in existing courses at the university, such as the Master of Science (MSc) in GIS at Ardhi University, the MSc in GIS, and MSc in Data Science at the was created University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM). The Geographic Information and Communication Technologies (GEO-ICT) 313 students program of the University of Turku will also be involved to support the integration of the cookbook into Tanzanian university curricula through a “train the trainers” approach. Upcoming activities during FY19 will include the finalization of the placed in 2017 curriculum and the integration of some aspects into local university curricula. Industry Placement 450 The annual Industrial Placement training program runs from July to September each year. During 2017, 306 students were placed with both classroom training and students field-based practical skills on data collections, interviews, surveys, and monitoring. targeted intake for 2018 This particular experience has become popular with both students and professors alike, who in 2018 requested a significant scale-up of university students for placement. TURP has committed to take 400 students in 2018 — bowing to strong demand to increase the scope — from multiples schools of 500 the Universities of Dar es Salaam and Ardhi. At the time of writing this report, TURP Annual Report 2018 500 students had signed up, far exceeding the available slots and making this students program the most sought-after of its kind within this academic field. signed up for 2018 The training is expected to last seven weeks and will involve classroom training and community mapping in the field, as well as solid waste mapping in coordination with NipeFagio’s World Clean Up activities. } 75 Challenges and Lessons Learned The development of the Resilience Academy has been an collaborative process with many stakeholders involved. Challenges have been generally characterized by the sequencing and coordination needed between these parties as the concept is iteratively developed, tested, and revised. Specific challenges are: • Defining scope – With so many interested parties and resilience encompassing such broad disciplines, it is important to determine a core stakeholder group. Currently, this is focused on the two main universities in Dar es Salaam, as well as Zanzibar State University and Sokoine. In addition, international partners from the universities of Turku, Delft, and Twente are engaged through existing Tanzania resilience programs. • Oversubscription for the industry placements has been exceeding program capacity. In July through September 2017, the program achieved 306 placements, which was oversubscribed compared to the 250 target. For the planned 2018 placement, the initial response from universities for 250 students has been a request of over 600. • Formulating a sustainable plan for “training the trainers” and encouragingthe wide adoption of curricular material will be important and requires sufficient time allocation. • Seeking a balance between a focus on TURP specific skills transfer or a comprehensive school of resilience and risk management theory. So far, the practical activities are TURP specific, whereas the partnership approach enables universities to introduce complementary disaster risk materials and training. • Managing the international requests from both individuals and institutions for collaboration and research. While this is to be welcomed, the core datasets and mission for the Resilience Academy must be established first. Financials Over FY 18, Resilience Academy projects were allotted funding from one grant: TF0A4238 Resilience Academy. Funds disbursed through this grant amounted to US$400,942. Financial summaries are detailed in Section 8. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 76 The Ramani Huria Industry Training program has become Ardhi’s top choice for students TURP Annual Report 2018 } 77 Credit: Chris Morgan – World Bank RECIPIENT-EXECUTED GRANTS In addition to the wide ranging Technical Assistance frequent and more extensive flooding in the middle provided through the program’s Bank executed and lower basin than in the past. This increased pillar and Resilience Academy, TURP envisages flood risk is linked to a rising number of fatalities, to provide the bulk of its financial resources for injuries, damaged assets and other livelihood recipient executed grants. The largest grant and costs, and contributes to uncertainty about the primary focus is expected to be a set of Flood Risk future scope for land use and the value of urban Reduction investments in the Msimbazi basin. development functions of the Msimbazi basin. The focus on Msimbazi recognizes the importance of Climate changes also reveal rising sea levels, day the river basin to the city’s growth and development, and night time temperatures, and variability of as well as the complexities in addressing the causes rainfall; all of which compound the stresses on the and consequences of flooding in the river. The city and it capacity to cope with flood events. In lower Msimbazi Basin transects the city of Dar 2016 the Msimbazi basin was estimated to suffer es Salaam, including its central business district, average annual losses of US$47million per year critical transport infrastructure, and vulnerable from flood events. This figure is expected to rise low-income communities. This urban river system rapidly unless new, more resilient, urbanization has experienced increasing severity of flood events paths can be adopted. The work of the Msimbazi Design Charrette The focus on Msimbazi in Pillar 2 is expected to produce several key recognizes the importance of investment plans as well as basin-wide management frameworks, which can be the basis for a Flood Risk the river basin to the city’s Management Project. growth and developmenT TURP recommends the development of a US$20 million to $25million recipient-executed grant to driven by factors related to rapid and unplanned address three main objectives: urbanization, as well as a changing climate. 1. Priority Actions in the Lower Msimbazi Deforestation and urbanisation have reduced the rain for Flood Reduction water retention capacity by infiltration in the natural This component aims for integrated planning landscape and have increased surface runoff as well actions in order to deliver a comprehensive TURP Annual Report 2018 as sediment transport to the lower basin. Moreover, flood risk program the flooding hotspot unplanned human settlement in the Msimbazi basin of the city. The details of this investment and the associated uncontrolled solid waste disposal, plan are expected by August 2018 and have industrial water pollution, and public roads & bridges, been collaboratively developed by over 60 have created barriers which have reduced the water local government and community conveyance capacity of the river. stakeholders through the participatory design charrette from January – June 2018. } The result is that seasonal rains create more 78 The key activities of this plan include: a. Demarcate boundary of Msimbazi Special Planning Zone and Park b. Resettle people who are immediately in harms way c. Train river (widen, deepen, and create terraces to contain water during flood events) d. Rehabilitate mangrove forest (flush sedimentation to return normal sea water flow) e. Raise and widen Jangwani Bridge f. Relocate BRT Depot to safer location g. Increase water discharge capacity at Kawawa Road h. Actively manage accumulation of sediment (i.e ongoing extraction) 2. Institutional Strengthening for Integrated Basin Management This supports the training, equipment, operational plans, program coordination and management, and monitoring and evaluation of urban flood risk panning and management. It will be informed by a TURP developed Msimbazi Strategic Management Framework (MSMF) which can serve as a blue print from additional urban river basins. The MSMF provides guidance for a planned, well-managed and coordinated development in the Msimbazi special planning area in which four main themes are aligned: Flood Protection, Environmental Rehabilitation, and Green city park developments (in the Lower Msimbazi Basin Area). This framework supports: a. Design and operationalize flood risk early warning system b. Establish sand removal points in critical bottlenecks grant objectives TURP recommends the development of a US$20 million to $25 million recipient-executed grant to address three main objectives: 01 priority action in TURP Annual Report 2018 the lower msimbazi for flood reduction } 79 c. Plant vegetation to protect river banks d. Community sensitization on plan and contributing factors to flooding e. Solid waste management program f. Water pollution management program 3. Community Engagement To develop community awareness and behavior changes to cope with waste management, sediment management, and ensure a strong buy-in from communities. This may involve the creation of a community resilience works fund to support the local investments. Activities may include: a. Community drainage investments b. Local waste management solutions c. Riverbank maintenance d. Awareness and education campaigns e. Community greening and reforestation An extensive and highly participatory process has been used to develop this concept, and final versions of the deliverables are due in late August 2018. Costing and sequencing for an Implementation Plan is underway, so specific activities are tentative. Furthermore, recipient-executed grants will be jointly designed with Tanzanian implementing agencies and subject to Ministry of Finance approvals. It should also be noted that the available TURP resource envelope and timeline will not match the full needs of the risk-reduction challenge. The goal shall therefore be to leverage as far as possible existing and future investments and provide an exemplary roadmap for risk reduction in Tanzania’s commercial hub. This will also involve private sector engagement, as well as coordination with urban, transport, water, and environmental sector projects. 02 Institutional Strengthening for Integrated Basin Management TURP Annual Report 2018 03 community engagement } 80 PROGRAM MANAGEMENT Objective Program management and administrative activities for the TF include, but are not limited to, supporting program governance arrangements and TF-related meetings; planning and executing work plans and budgets; managing communication and conducting outreach; disseminating lessons learned; reporting on progress; and monitoring and evaluating the program. Overview of Progress FY 18 has represented peak procurement activity within the TURP program, as all Pillars are now up and running, with few activities fully concluded. At the same time, the programmatic approach to TURP management has required periodic adjustments in scope and work plan in response to government feedback, contractor performances, cost estimate changes, and budget envelope changes resulting from exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, the Steering Committee agreed that URTZ 2018 — the annual TURP reporting event — will be jointly held with international conference events in Dar es Salaam August 29-31, 2018. Given the high level of activity and interactions, efforts during FY 18 have focused on improving coordination across the program team and between program partners. These included: • Convening of Technical Advisory Committee and expansion of the members invited • Coordination and delivery of a team retreat for program partners, managers, and consultants held in June 2018 • Development and management of an online collaborative digital repository for program information • Implementation of a media communication strategy including a mini video series on urban resilience. TURP Annual Report 2018 } 81 Mexico Study Tour technical review summary TURP program provided financial support for three Tanzanian delegates to join an additional ACTIVITY PROGRESS three officials from the Government of Tanzania Convening of 4 meetings convened dealing with disaster risk management attended Technical and Steering the one-week Understanding Risk Conference Committees in Mexico City. This was a global event that had Procuring experts 13 Consulting firms participation of over 1,050 representatives and facilitation contracts Issued from 101 countries and 550+ organizations active in the creation, communication, and use 17 Tanzanian consultants of disaster risk information. This was a learning hired for a total of 1470 days and networking experience for the Tanzanian 16 International consultants participants, who learned new approaches for a total of 969 days and ideas about how DRM is being addressed across the globe. Of particular interest were: (i) Knowledge capture 1 external website managed and sharing the event on the Africa Disaster Risk Financing 1 internal knowledge Initiative, in which over 50 delegates from 13+ repository developed and African countries attended; and (ii) the visit to the managed Mexico City’s Resilience Agency to meet with the 2 World Bank feature stories Director General to discuss the city’s resilience strategy and related issues. 4 Urban Resilience Video stories produced This international forum gave the Government representatives the opportunity to make new professional contacts in order to continue to exchange DRM approaches and ideas across countries and cities. secretariat activity summary ACTIVITY PROGRESS Annual Work Plan Update Complete Mexico Study Tour Complete TURP Annual Report 2018 Annual reviews Complete Communications Ongoing (detailed narrative below) International conference Planning in progress SC meetings One in December 2017 } One in July 2018 82 COMMUNICATIONS mobilize community action towards making Dar es Salaam a resilient city. The top 10 designs are to be External Communication exhibited at the annual conference and the winning artist will receive a contract to produce his or her Over FY 18, a comprehensive plan was developed work in full on a wall in the Jangwani area. with the goal of improving on both internal and external communication. This plan includes a branding A community event will serve as the official launch guide and a timeline for product dissemination. for the mural as part of the Nipe Fagio campaign. Following this timeline, a structure was formulated Internal Communication for videos and stories to be jointly created by the communication team and shared via WBG During this fiscal year, the WBG transitioned all channels. The outward-facing website was further “Collaboration for Development” communities to a updated on a bi-monthly basis to reflect program new platform. As a result, the TURP Collaboration for progress and changes, and all related stories Development has now improved in accessibility and published through WBG channels were linked to TURP team members have been trained on its use. TURP Annual Report 2018 this digital space. A template for periodic program updates was A mural competition was conceptualized also designed, to be implemented over the next and contracts were signed with a local firm fiscal year to help facilitate more consistent that specializes in community engagement to communication between all program partners. implement. This project will introduce the local arts community to the topic of urban resilience with the goal of encouraging the production of art that can Events } 83 OUTPUT CATEGORY LINK Collaboration for Website https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/ Development tanzania-urban-resilience-online-community Program Website Website http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/ tanzania-urban-resilience-program Elevating Emergency Feature Story http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ Response in Tanzania feature/2018/03/09/elevating-emergency- response-in-tanzania Next Generation of Feature Story http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ Youth in Tanzania to Be feature/2018/02/14/next-generation-of-youth- Equipped With Critical in-tanzania-to-be-equipped-with-critical-skills- Skills in Urban Resilience in-urban-resilience Ramani Huria Website Website http://www.ramanihuria.org Over the course of the year, several events were organized to engage the community with TURP projects. Most of these were conducted by the Ramani Huria and Emergency Management Information System (EMIS) teams, with the goal of collecting critical community data to inform risk-reduction activities. The program’s annual conference, URTZ 2018, is set to take place from August 29 to 30 at the Julius International Convention Centre. The agenda will bring all stakeholders together for discussion on lessons learned from local initiatives and from similar initiatives in urban resilience abroad. This opportunity will be used to publicly showcase outputs from the Msimbazi Charrette design process. URTZ 2018 will happen in conjunction with the Free and Open Source Software for Geospatial Conference TURP Annual Report 2018 and support will be provided by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery’s Understanding Risk, Increasing Opportunities for Learning Exchange. } 84 05 r e su l ts o v e r vi e w TURP Annual Report 2018 } 85 86 TURP Annual Report 2018 } In FY 18, the log framework was updated upon request from DfID. This framework elaborates on the initial results framework to improve on program monitoring and evaluation and track Resilience Academy results explicitly. Results indicators are segregated into the original Indicator 3.1 has been modified from last year three Pillars of priority for program implementation to reflect the budget cuts to the program and plus the Resilience Academy, as well as specific reduced scope. Rather than track the adoption of indicators related to program administration and emergency plans across cities, this will measure recipient-executed works. These are detailed in the results in operationalizing the Dar es Salaam table below. Emergency Response Plan. Targets described in the indicator column are for Resilience Academy results indicators are newly the calendar year as a whole, and as of this report, introduced and track the results in the Industrial covers the FY up to June 30, 2018. There are a few Placement program as well as the use of risk results that have not fully met the target yet. information in research. The industrial placement offers experience and practical skills to Tanzanian Indicator 1.2 has not been measured by the means students and future town planners, surveyors, and originally envisaged due to delay in issuing the geographers. The use of risk data in research is also risk management index evaluation. This delay is a measure of demand for information. due to the need to thoroughly consult and engage government counterparts in the methodology and objectives of such an annual exercise. The assigned value remains “incipient” based on a preliminary capacity assessment conducted in FY 17. A complete assessment is expected later in 2018, which will evaluate that year as well as 2017 retroactively. Indicator 2.3 was modified to track key government decision points in respect to implementing flood TURP Annual Report 2018 risk-reduction works in the Msimbazi Valley. The expected output indicators were changed to track endorsement of the flood model results and priority interventions, acceptance of a Lower Msimbazi Detailed Area Plan, effectiveness of a Msimbazi Flood Risk Reduction grant, and completion of planned works under the grant. } 87 TURP Annual Report 2018 } Credit: Andrew Stephen 88 Results Log Framework INDICATOR BASELINE FY17 FY18 DATA COLLECTION AND REPORTING COMMENT / Target / Target FREQUENCY DATA SOURCE RESPONSIBILITY Impact Indicators: Urban areas in Tanzania are more resilient to climate risk 1.1 Number of wards 0 0/0 0/0 Annually Regional PO-RALG This indicator tracks the extent to benefiting from or Administrative and ULGAs which structural and non-structural implementing flood Secretary responding risk reduction measures are risk mitigation to expert-led identified in local government plans measures identified survey and implemented in ward level risk management plans 1.2 Improved capacity of Low Incipient / NA TBD / Incipient Annually Disaster risk PO-RALG Weighted index of advances made in government agencies management and ULGAs intermediate outcome indicators for to identify, reduce, index responding Pillars 1, 2 and 3. (Assessment based finance and cope to expert-led on Dar es Salaam) and including with disaster risks survey measures for financial protection. Assessment for 2017 is expected to be conducted in late 2018. 1.3 Modelled Economic AAL TBD/NA Model Runs Probabilistic World Bank Average Annual Loss (AAL) to be losses in the Msimbazi US$47million expected Flood Risk determined from flood risk model basin reduced as a /year in 2019 and 2020. model expected in 2019. 2017 Baseline result of structural Also contingent using TURP data is taken from Turpie et al. risk mitigation on selection of exposure and (2016) model and may be subject mesures designed structural hazard data. to revision once new model is measures calibrated. No indicator is expected implemented. for collection yet. Outcome Indicators: Urban local governments in Tanzania utilize improved evidence base and urban planning to strengthen resilience to climate-related hazards 2.1 Number of persons 0 0/0 350,000* / Annually Flood risk and World Bank Population estimate based on census benefiting from improved 250,000 exposure model data, household data, associated with flood resilience as a result dwellings and businesses exposed to of ICF support flood hazards and modelled to expect reduced losses as a result of ICF interventions (eg. new/improved drains, early warning systems and/or flood shelters) . (Dar es Salaam only). 350,000 is a population estimate for the lower Msimbazi regions expected to benefit from flood risk reduction support – this figure shall be revised once project design and risk model are deployed. 2.2 Extent to which ICF 0 1/1 TBD / 2 Annually Annual Review DfID Narrative report made during DFID intervention is likely to Annual Review process. A score between have a trans-formational 1 and 4 will be assigned in November 2018. impact Intermediate Result Indicators TURP Annual Report 2018 Pillar 1 Risk Identification 1.1 Improved access to climate Not yet Exposure and 2.1 Wards Annually Based on Ageospatial data portal will serve as risk information in Dar es available hazard catalogue Published: indicators a repository for information at both Salaam / Data Model Exposure, 3.1 – 3.4, 4.3, national and subnational levels and Exposure Drainage, and 4.6 complete, hazard Inundation hazard partially complete / Risk information published for 20 wards of Dar es Salaam with flood inundation } scenarios 89 1.2 Exposure and risk 0 Pilot satellite- Pilot service Annually Climate risk PO-RALG Standardized exposure, hazard and risk assessments applied in based exposure concluded and geonode monitoring tools will be developed first as major cities monitoring service under evaluation. repository pilots and applied across urban centers. (cumulative number) launched Monitoring service These services will serve as a monitoring / Confirmed under discussion tool for investment needs (build-up of Launched with with stakeholders vulnerable population in hazard areas), Planet Labs / At least 1 baselines for exposure populations, monitoring service and a support tool for development and demonstrated, at improved land use planning least 1 more urban risk service under preparation Pillar 2 Risk Reduction 2.1 Cumulative number of 0 399 (of which 192 1522 Annually Participant lists World Bank This indicator is a targeted and high-in- people directly engaged are female) /100 and registrations tensity ICF Indicator that tracks the in climate risk reduction / 50 (of which from trainings training of individuals in understanding activities - number and 25 female) and events risk information, analyzing and applying per­centage of females risk data (WB core indicator) Gender disaggregated by program Msimbazi Charrette 32% female 68% male EMIS trainings 38% female 62% male Ramani Huria 37% female 63% male AVERAGE 36% female 64% male 2.2 Community risk redution 0 0/0 0/ 10 Annually Ward Offices and World Bank This indicator directly tracks the plans developed using LGAs progress of risk reduction planning on improved risk information community level. (cumulative number) Toolkit development and engagement process started – 10 plans remain target for end of 2018 2.3 Government risk reduction 0 NA Msimbazi Flood Annually Secretariat World Bank This indicator tracks government activities Model Accepted by endorsement of TURP supported risk Stakeholders reduction activities in the Msimbazi basin. Pillar 3 Preparedness and Emergency Management 3.1 Dar es Salaam Emergency 0 Dar es Salaam ERP Detailed Trainings, Annually DarMAERT Disaster This indicator tracks: Response System Prepared Exercises and Drills Management • City Emergency Management authorities program procured Department adopting and using a City Emergency Response plan; and and World Bank • Enhancing Emergency response system through Standard Operating Procedures and Emergency Operations Center Enhancing Emergency response system through Standard Operating Procedures and Emergency Operations Center Resilience Academy: Knowledge Transfer established 4.1 Cumulative Number of 0 306 Total 829 Total Annually Tanzanian Disaster Manage- This indicator tracks the number of staff and students (by 122 female 363 female Universities ment Tanzanian university students in fields of TURP Annual Report 2018 gender) placed in Urban / 250 / 500 Department and urban planning, GIS, geography attaining a Resilience Industry placement World Bank 10 week immersion in risk data, community engagement and risk analysis techniques required to sustain risk information activities and useful in local governments 4.2 Climate Risk Data and Tools 0 NA In progress Annually Tanzanian Disaster This indicator tracks availability, access Use in research / Geospatial Data Universities Management and use of risk information in research; repository established Department and thus monitoring demand for risk data from for 4 universities World Bank academia and research partnerships in Tanzania on resilience. Program Administration 5.1 Program management, 0 Launched May 30 2017 Program Committee Annually Secretariat World Bank This indicator tracks reporting milestones knowledge and commu nications meetings held; and dissemination } Conference schedule August 2018 90 06 r isks o v e r vi e w TURP Annual Report 2018 } 91 92 TURP Annual Report 2018 } The below topics summarize some of the risk profile narrative specific to the last year of TURP. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND PRIORITIES It was recognized last year, and continues to be the case, that TURP faces a challenge to maintain clear coordination and consultation with stakeholders of divergent priorities or whose goals may change over time. It is crucial that the Secretariat works across different levels of government to ensure clarity on roles. This risk has been intensified by two major activities during the year. The launch of the Msimbazi Design Charrette includes over 80 stakeholders from a wide spectrum of government and society and dealing with a broad range of urbanization issues from pollution, to compensation, to transport and livelihoods. Inevitably there are competing demands for scarce land and resources and the task has been to guide a process that is constructive, adopts ‘deep democracy’ principles to listen to voices that are both central and marginal in the debate. A strong emphasis was placed on building buy-in and legitimacy with local communities in the Msimbazi, as well as facilitating translation and Swahili language content. Similarly, the team needed to manage political and institutional coordination challenges to mitigate the risk of a lack of political ownership or institutional barriers from a planning and permitting point of view. To this end, additional resources were invested in working along-side Ministry of Lands and ensuring that the Msimbazi detailed area plan development aligned with the same process for designating and demarcating the special planning zone for Msimabzi. Additional presentation and engagement was also incorporated to consult the city mayors, councilors, and local representatives. A second major challenge has been the significant flood impacts experience in the past year, beginning with a serious flood in October 2017 and recurring events in January, April and May. In February 2018 the Vice President of Tanzania convened a Flood Management Task force within government. These intense flood events and the high-level spotlight placed by the Vice President presented a potential risk that government priorities may shift towards the short term, response oriented measures. However, the high-level ownership TURP Annual Report 2018 and a clear understanding for the need to drive inter-institutional solutions, also facilitated TURP awareness and mitigated the risk of poor engagement and ownership. To the contrary, TURP has worked to align the Msimbazi actions to the Vice President’s tasks force priorities and considers the that high-level ownership within the Government of Tanzania has increased significantly. } 93 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND PROCUREMENT Exchange rate risks identified last year remain, as the Pound Sterling has fallen against the US Dollar, and further activities will need to be scaled back, increasing risk to development objectives. An increasing portfolio of components and sub-components also runs the risk of added complexity to the management of firms and consultants as the program has achieved a peak in procurement of consultancies. The TURP program has sought to consolidate where possible into few larger consultancies to mitigate this risk. This is partly a response to the reduce budget last year and as a result of greater confidence gains in which program activities are working well and should scale up. It remains a challenge to sequence expenditures in the first three months of the calendar year owning to added restrictions on commitment and limited options for program changes. This time period represents the pre-flood season, during which unforeseen needs relating to preparedness may arise. Overall the reduced budget, complex interplay of local and international firms and consultants, and restrictions on January to March contracting, reduce the flexibility of the program to respond to shocks. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND SECURITY A wide range of social and environmental issues have been raised through the TURP program, and particularly in the Design Charrette for the Msimbazi Valley relating to flood risk and risk management. The TURP team has worked with government of Tanzania and key implementing agencies to highlight relevant environmental and social concerns and to ensure that where applicable World Bank safeguard policies are adhered to. The environmental concerns center on the river basin and activities linked to dredging of the rivers and disposal of waste materials. Erosion and environmental specialists may be needed to review mangrove and other habitat concerns, TURP Annual Report 2018 and if needed an environmental impact assessment will be required from the government before proceeding with any work. A reputational risk could further arise from any potential or actual environmental damage or improperly managed demolitions and relocations, making it critical that all necessary precautionary measures are considered in the program communication. } 94 95 TURP Annual Report 2018 } ahead 07 l o o ki n g 96 TURP Annual Report 2018 } WORKPLAN OVERVIEW The coming year of TURP will involve a shift away from risk identification activities towards more tangible investment operations TThe coming year of TURP will involve a shift away management and flood reduction investments from risk identification activities and towards more and the team should seek to leverage additional tangible investment operations. These activities resources from Bank, additional Development have been and will continue to be informed by Partners, and the private sector. the results of the multi-stakeholder Msimbazi Charrette process as well as the socio-economic The main activities presented to the donor and studies and community-level engagements. TURP steering committee for FY 19 are detailed in the following table, in U.S. dollars. These remain FY 19 will further extend engagement of projections and subject to change. In addition, civil society through a major campaign being closed activities and previously planned but organized for World Cleanup Day. This campaign, now cancelled activities are not shown. A major led by Tanzanian civil society organization (CSO) difference from the FY18 disbursement projections NipeFagio, will include (a) development of a and the actual figures has been the deferment comprehensive solid waste hotspot map for Dar in determining and disbursing on a government- es Salaam, identifying locations and drainage executed grant (under recipient executed works) systems with extensive solid waste accumulation and the postponement of probabilistic risk model and/or blockages; (b) training of a nationwide (under Risk Identification). network of civil society organizations, private sector, and government stakeholders on the importance of improved solid waste management; and (c) one nationwide cleanup event on World The coming year of Cleanup Day (September 15, 2018) directly facilitated in 11 municipalities across the country TURP will involve focused on cleaning up rivers to mitigate floods a shift away from risk identification and about 45 smaller cleanup events prior to World Clean Up Day, in total engaging tens of TURP Annual Report 2018 thousands in Dar es Salaam. activities towards It has additionally been suggested by the Steering Committee that TURP management endeavors more tangible in FY 19 to secure more funding and/or support for urban resilience activities. In this way, the investment TURP outputs can present a roadmap for risk operations } 97 TURP Annual Report 2018 } Credit: Andrew Stephen 98 WORKPLAN TOTAL $3,278,862 $13,362,245 FY18 FY19 Disbursement Disbursement PA Program Management $328,792 $65,500 TA Program Coordination & Quality Assurance $124,158 $32,750 Knowledge Sharing $204,634 $32,750 Pillar 1 Risk Identification $1,204,000 $1,565,000 Risk Evaluation $1,204,000 $1,565,000 Historical Events Inventory $12,000 $130,000 Disaster Risk Management Index & Updates $45,000 $25,000 Elevation Model and Exposure Mapping $85,000 $33,000 Ramani Huria (Community Mapping) additional cities $415,000 $163,000 Satellite Data Mapping additional Cities $165,000 $325,000 Erosion and Sedimentation Study $86,000 $50,000 Hydrological Study & Monitoring $256,000 $170,000 Spatial Data Management & Hosting $105,000 $14,000 Dar es Salaam Probabilistic Flood Risk Evaluation $35,000 $655,000 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction $772,630 $676,000 Risk Mitigation Planning $354,500 $170,000 Msimbazi Flood Model & Infrastructure Diagnostic $262,000 $0 Just In Time Technical Assistance $50,000 $75,000 Land Use Planning and Resettlement Framework $7,500 $20,000 Drains Maintenance & Management dashboard $35,000 $75,000 TURP Annual Report 2018 Msimbazi Design Charrette and Special Planning Area $221,000 $131,000 Msimbazi charrette and area plan $200,000 $65,000 Msimbazi River Basin management Plan $21,000 $65,000 Community Level Risk Reduction $0 $375,000 Participatory climate risk plans, training, behavior change $0 $275,000 World Clean Up Day $0 $100,000 } 99 Pillar 3 Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management $385,000 $943,200 Emergency Planning and Response $385,000 $943,200 DARMAERT Emergency Response Plan $120,000 $0 Equipment $0 $0 Municipal Contigency Plans $50,000 $268,550 Community Response Plans $45,000 $39,300 Training, Exercises and Drills $15,000 $78,600 Damage Assessment Capacity building $15,000 $32,750 Local Early Warning and Early Action Tool $75,000 $262,000 Forecast and Flood Advisories $65,000 $262,000 Resilience Academy $400,000 $635,350 Curricula & Courses for Risk Information $140,000 $222,700 Support to Placement in Industry Program $125,000 $137,550 Support to Master's Students & Exchanges $50,000 $58,950 University Resilience Labs & Equipment $0 $124,450 Short Courses and Capacity Building $75,000 $91,700 Recipient-Executed Works $0 $9,170,000 Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management Project $0 $7,860,000 Equipment $0 $393,000 Feasibility studies, designs & Safeguards $0 $786,000 Msimbazi Works $0 $6,550,000 Capacity Building $0 $131,000 Community Resilience Investments $0 $1,310,000 Community Works $0 $655,000 Community clean ups $0 $655,000 TURP Annual Report 2018 Secretariat $205,000 $307,195 International conference series $38,000 $98,250 Steering committee meetings $5,000 $1,310 Communications, Websites and Media $25,000 $43,885 M&E baseline data collection $5,000 $6,550 } 100 101 TURP Annual Report 2018 } fi n a n ci a l s 102 TURP Annual Report 2018 } FINANCIAL OVERVIEW Total disbursements from the TF to date amount to US$4,579,710. In FY 18, a total of US$3,278,862 was disbursed, with $365,380 remaining available. Outstanding commitments of US$2,292,759 will be carried over into the next fiscal year. REPORTING PERIOD ENDED JUNE 30, 2018 (USD) Total Funds Received from DfID as of June 30 2018 $7,237,440 Disbursements Fiscal Year 2018 $3,278,862 Total TF Disbursements $4,579,710 Outstanding Contract Commitments $2,292,759 Cash Balance at the End of Fiscal Year 2018 $365,380 Next Scheduled Transfer from DfID - June 30 2018 $3,280,000 TURP Annual Report 2018 } 103 DISBURSEMENTS TOTAL BUDGET % DISBURSED BETF ACTIVITY FY 18 ALLOCATED COMMITTED AVAILABLE DISBURSED + COMMITTED (USD) Pillar 1 Risk Identification Risk Evaluation and Information TF0A3559 $2,180,000 $1,204,482 $594,966 $80,552 96% Management TF0A4139 Urban Exposure Mapping Data Services $150,000 $0 $0 $0 100% Total Pillar 1 $2,330,000 $1,204,482 $594,966 $80,552 Pillar 2 Risk Reduction TF0A4691 Risk Mitigation Planning $860,000 $354,602 $217,979 $197,419 77% TF0A3571 Msimbazi River Revitalization $510,000 $418,028 $72,946 $26 100% TF0A4575 Urbanization Review - Resilience Planning $57,848 $0 $0 $0 100% Total Pillar 2 $1,427,848 $772,630 $290,925 $197,445 Pillar 3 Emergency Preparedness Emergency Planning TF0A3828 $1,440,000 $385,212 $752,943 $1,845 100% and Response Total Pillar 3 $1.440,000 $385,212 $752,943 $1,845 Resilience Academy TF0A4238 Urban Resilience Academy $920,000 $400,942 $435,428 $78,630 91% Total Resilience Academy $920,000 $400,942 $435,428 $78,630 Program Administration TURP Annual Report 2018 TF0A3742 Technical Review and Design $280,000 $124,158 $1,200 $642 100% TF0A2973 Secretariat and Conferences $650,000 $204,634 $217,296 $3,070 100% Total Administration $930,000 $328,792 $218,496 $3,712 OVERALL TOTAL ACTIVITIES $7,237,848 $3,278,862 $2,292759 $365,380 95% } 104 Delivery chain DFID TURP TRUSTEE ACCOUNT PILLAR 1: PILLAR 2: Risk Information Risk REDUCTION Urban Exposure RISK EVALUATION MSIMBAZI RIVER RISK MITIGATION SWIFT Surveys on Mapping Data Services AND INFO MGMT URBANIZATION REVIEW REVITALIZATION PLANNING Poverty and Floods $99,460 $1,315,440 $18,309 $91,240 $365,270 $480, 564 International International INTERNATIONAL International International International Consultants Consultants CONSULTANTS Consultants Consultants Consultants $10,400 $145,898 $18,309 $19,417 $93,160 $6,240 Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $11,413 $76,346 $0 $61,793 $7,000 Stichting Deltares ECORYS Nederland BV UDA Danismanlik Planet Labs Inc. COWI Tanzania Ltd $309,767 Musavirlik LTD. $60,000 $147,405 $249,756 $78,000 Dares Technology S.L . OBSCOM Stichting Deltares Stichting Deltares $17,647 $15,000 $6,276 $75,855 Ordnance Survey Bremen Overseas Research International and Development $34,992 $30,010 Delft University of Technology $158,806 Humanitarian OpenStreetmap Team $524,965 Jeremy Benn Associates Ltd. $83,678 Drone Adventures $9,000 TURP Annual Report 2018 WeRobotics $6,000 Planet Labs Inc. $40,000 Spatial Collective Ltd $19,500 } 105 IMGeospatial Intelligent Modelling $38,850 PILLAR 3: RESILIENCE RECIPIENT EXECUTED A: RECIPIENT EXECUTED B: EMERGENCY Secretariat Small Grants, Studies, Msimbazi Risk PREPAREDNESS ACADEMY Equipment Reduction Works EMERGENCY PLANNING RESILIENCE SECRETARIAT TECHNINCAL REVIEWS AND RESPONSE ACADEMY AND CONFERENCES AND DESIGN $984,102 $469,895 $160,412 $72,225 International International International International Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $64,947 $65,765 $155,672 $65,725 Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Tanzanian Consultants Consultants Consultants Consultants $85,610 $32,449 $4,739 $0 Earthquakes & ITC WeRobotics Megacities Initiative $205,629 $6,500 $391,055 Stichting Deltares Stichting Deltares $442,490 $79,648 WeRobotics $6,500 Delft University of Technology $79,904 TURP Annual Report 2018 } 106 107 TURP Annual Report 2018 } Tan z ania U rban R e s ilien c e P rogra m m e