MYANMAR ECONOMIC MONITOR DEC 2019 Resilience Amidst Risk Executive Summary Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index economy is expected tosummary Executive grow at 6.3 percent in 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing output and employment. (Index) Services Industry Agriculture 8% Summary GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) Future output 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to have grown at 6.3 percent in 2018/191, marginally higher than 6.2 3.2% percent 4% in 2017/18, supported by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation Employment 2% 2.4% reaching double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by Contraction growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% PMI Headline sectors and government’s planned infrastructure 0% before(New spending2016/17 the 2020 (New Risks elections. 2017/18 to the 2018/19E economic outlook are tilted to the downside due to slowing (New Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei elections, although the pace has thus far been strong. The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) Recent developments Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) CPI Non Food Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% Global growth will be weaker than expected in 2019. The global economic growth rate is estimated to have CPI Headline 6000 slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation 4000 30.0% economies and major emerging market and developing economies. 10% Modest declines are forecasted for global Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 2000 commodity 0 prices. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 20.0% 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5%ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. -4000 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. The service sector0% is the main driver of growth, expected to grow by 0.0% 8.4 percent in 2018/19. A slow recovery in tourism related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail trade. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2018/19, on the back of strong Source: Ministrygrowth manufacturing offsetting slower growth in construction. Despite seasonal floods and volatile demand, of Commerce Source: CSO agriculture output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in production and export destinations. The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite The trade 2017/18 balance and 2018/19. (US$ million) in Q2 2018/19 but returned improved to deficit reforms such as inthe Q3 2018/19 change in the as exports fiscal declined year. (percent and imports rose . OthersThe Q3 2018/19 decline in exports was share of driven budgeted by capital industrial expenditure ) finished products and agricultural products, but & Transport partly offset by rising mineral exports. Imports increased Communication (qoq) in Q3 Total Capital Expenditure 2018/19 due Real Estate to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, products, Education, indicating Agriculture strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing 150% of industrial raw materials supported the robust Energy Grand Total sector. Approved Foreign Direct Investment improved Construction growth in the manufacturing in 2018/19 compared to 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. 10,000 100% Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 percent to 10.4 percent in August. The electricity price in June to 10.9 percent (yoy) in July before easing 50% 5,000 increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 1 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments 2018/19 actual budget deficit is lower than the planned deficit driven by under-execution. The Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index programmed budget deficit economy is expected to grow at 2018/19 for 6.3 percent wasin revised upward from remained 5.4 percent above in September 50, signaling 2018 increases in to 6.4 percent manufacturing June 2019. in 2018/19 from The actualin 6.2 percent deficit projected at 3.2 percent is (Percent) 2017/18. output and to due continued(Index) employment. under-execution of the capital latter is occurring despite changing the fiscal year from 1 April - 31 March to 1 October - 30 budget. TheServices Industry collection continues increasing only slightly from 16.4 percent of GDP in 2017/18 to 16.8 September. Revenue Agriculture percent of GDP in 2018/19. Future output 8% GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6% Expansion 4% Economic outlook and risks3.2% Myanmar’s economic outlook remains stable. Growth in 2019/20 is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage Employment 2% 2.4% points from 2018/19, driven by improved domestic Contraction demand. Investment growth in transport and PMI Headline telecommunication 0% 0.8% plans more infrastructure spending will sustain, as government in the lead up to the 2020 elections. Construction 2016/17 (New sector activity 2017/18 is expected (New 2018/19E (Newto improve in 2019/20, with positive proxy indicators such Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) as building permits and large FDI commitments. The Industry sector is expected to grow at a faster pace in Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei 2018/19, with growth in manufacturing activities driven by foreign firms’ entry. In the medium-term, growth The trade balance is expected improved to recover in Q2 2018/19 with improved but business sentiment,Domestic inflationary better access pressures to electricity have and increased,availability improved with returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. credit of and particularly imports rose. (US$for construction, manufacturing and million) trade activities, also supported by foreign bank (Index) participation. Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) CPI Non Food Trade balance CPI Food Downside risks to the economic outlook are driven by15% both domestic CPIweaknesses Headline and external sources. 40.0% 6000global and regional growth, especially in China, together with global Slowing trade tensions, could also transmit Core inflation 4000 30.0% to Myanmar through the trade channel by slowing external10% demand and inbound Housing, foreign water, investments. electricity, Insecurity gas and other fuels 2000 in border areas with violence and forced displacement of refugees in Rakhine, and uncertainty from 20.0% legal 0 proceedings in international courts could affect investors’ sentiment. Based on international experience, the -2000 5% 2020 general elections could add another source of uncertainty. -4000 10.0% -6000 0% 0.0% Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Special topic: Source: Ministry Myanmar’s of Commerce rapidly growing private sector is hampered low productivity. The private sector is small by CSO Source: but rapidly expanding. Firms with foreign ownership employ on average more workers, have higher labor productivity, and pay higher wages than domestic enterprises. While Myanmar is strategically located in one of The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite the growing fastestand 2017/18 2018/19 regions in the world, decades of isolation . (US$ million) economic and such reforms sanctions as the change continue in the to. hamper (percent the fiscal year development and Othersexternal orientation of Myanmar’s firms.share of budgeted capital expenditure) Transport & Communication Firms need greater Total Capital Expenditure Estate to factor inputs, better connectivity, and an enabling business environment Realaccess Oil and Gas Health, Education, Agriculture support a responsible to 15,000 Manufacturing private sector. Private-sector growth is primarily Energyhampered by supply-side 150% in accessing finance, which is a constraints and a restrictive business environment. Many firms face difficultiesConstruction Grand Total major constraint to Private Sector Development (PSD). Limited access to skilled employees is the second most 10,000 constraint faced by firms, particularly SMEs. Land100% reported issues continue to impact the level of investment and finance in the country. Access to competitive and reliable electricity is also a major challenge facing firms in Myanmar. Behind these constraints is a business climate formed by the legacy of the state controlling rather than5,000 50% facilitating firms’ growth. The binding cross-cutting constraints affect PSD in key areas such as the agriculture and agribusiness, garment, and tourism sectors. The presence 0 of armed actors and conflicts add additional 0% challenges for businesses in one-third of 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Myanmar. Businesses in conflict-affected areas bear additional cost to operate. Econometric analysis shows Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 14 12 2 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor actors Macroeconomic Myanmar: that the long-term presence of armed negatively impacts Developments business density. It also finds that conflicts have negative impact on employment in the manufacturing sector. Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing Policies for private-sector led growth include: 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) a) Foster market expansion; b) Improve the allocation output and employment. (Index) of Develop the capacity of market participants. resources; c)Services Industry Agriculture Future output 8% GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6% Expansion 3.2% 4% 2% 2.4% Employment Contraction 0.8% PMI Headline 0% 2016/17 (New 2017/18 (New 2018/19E (New Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) CPI Non Food Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% CPI Headline 6000 Core inflation 4000 30.0% Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 10% 2000 0 20.0% -2000 5% -4000 10.0% -6000 0% 0.0% Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Source: Ministry of Commerce Source: CSO The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite 2017/18 and 2018/19. (US$ million) reforms such as the change in the fiscal year. (percent Others share of budgeted capital expenditure) Transport & Communication Total Capital Expenditure Real Estate Oil and Gas Health, Education, Agriculture 15,000 Manufacturing Energy 150% Construction Grand Total 10,000 100% 5,000 50% 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 14 13 3 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) output and employment. (Index) Services Industry Agriculture Future output 8% GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6% Expansion 3.2% 4% 2% 2.4% Employment Contraction 0.8% PMI Headline 0% 2016/17 (New 2017/18 (New 2018/19E (New Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) CPI Non Food Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% CPI Headline 6000 Core inflation 4000 30.0% Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 10% 2000 0 20.0% -2000 5% -4000 10.0% -6000 0% 0.0% Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Source: Ministry of Commerce Source: CSO The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite 2017/18 and 2018/19. (US$ million) reforms such as the change in the fiscal year. (percent Others share of budgeted capital expenditure) Transport & Communication Total Capital Expenditure Real Estate Oil and Gas Health, Education, Agriculture 15,000 Manufacturing Energy 150% Construction Grand Total 10,000 100% 5,000 50% 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 14 4 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index မြန ာ့ စ ီးပtosummary ် ြis expected Executive economy ီးရ ီးရat 6.3 grow percent in 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) ာ့ ြှု အစ င ် ခ50, remained above ံစ အန signaling increases output and employment. (Index) ှစ ် ခ ျုပ် in manufacturing Services ဒီဇင်ဘာလ ၂၀၁၉ Industry ှ ် ခုနစ Agriculture Summary Future output ျုပ် အက ဉီးခ6.0% 8% GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) 6.2% 6.3% Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic ကမ္ဘ ာ လ ု ုံး ဆ ု င ် ရ ာ စီ ုံး uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to ပ ာုံးရရုံး ရနှ ုံး ရက ုံးလာမ္ှု န ှ င ် ပပည် တ င်ုံး မ္ရရရာ have grown at 6.3 percent မ္ရေခ ာမ္ှုမ္ ာုံး ရှ in 2018/19 1,ရေရော် marginally ပငာုံး ပမ္ေ်မ္ာန higher than ု င င ် 6.2 ၏ 3.2% percent 4% စီုံးပ in 2017/18, ာုံးရရုံးေည် ကကကကခ supported ရပ်တည်န by ု စ င ် better မ္်ုံးကု ဆက် performance လက်ပပေလ in theက်ရေည် ှ manufacturing ။ နင ု င ် ၏ and services စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး တုံး ု sectors. တက်မ္ှု Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with Employment inflation 2% 2.4% နှုေုံး ် ေည် double reaching ကုေထ ် digits တ ု လ ် ပ ရုံးနင ု in်ရJuly ှ 2019. ် ဝေ်ရ ဆာင် Economic မ္ှုကဏ္ဍမ္ ာုံးတ growth is င် အာုံးရကာင် expected Contractionto reachုံးလာမ္ှု6.4ရကကာင percent in 2019/20,1helped ် ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ခုနစ ှ ်တ င် by growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% sectors and government’s PMI Headline plan ned infrastructure 0% ၆.၃ spending င ု before ရာခ2016/17 န ် ေ ှု ုံး ် တ ု တက် ုံး the (New 2020 လာမ္ည် (New Risks elections. 2017/18 ဟု ခေ ် ှေုံး ် ထာုံးေပြင မ္ 2018/19E to the(New ် ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ economic outlookခုare နစှ ်က ၆.၂ tilted toရာခ theင ် ေ န ် ထက်due ှု ုံး ု downside မ္ဆ စ ု ရလာက် to slowing Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global ပမ္င မ္ and regional ် ာုံးလာေည် ။ မ္က် growth, ခရု စီုံးပ and continued ာုံးရရုံး အရပခအရေ uncertainty အရပပာင် about ုံးအလဲ investor ပမ္ေ်ဆေ်perceptions မ္ှုေည် ၂၀၁၉ triggered ခုနစ ှ ် ဇေ်by လ the ကတည် Rakhine ုံးက Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general Source: elections, IHS Markit and Nikkei although the pace has thus far been strong. ပမ္င The် က် တ trade လbalance ာရေခဲပပီ ုံး improved ၂၀၁၉ ခုနစ in Q2 2018/19 ှ ် butဇူလင ် တင် Domestic ု လ ရငရကကုံးရြာင် inflationary ုံးပ နှုေုံး ် ေည် pressures ဂဏေ်ုံးနှစ have increased, ်လုံး with ု အထ returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. ပမ္င ် imports တ and က်လာေည် rose. ။ ေယ် (US$ ယပ million) ူ ုရဆာင်ရရုံးနှင ် ဆက်ေယ်ရ ရုံးကဏ္ဍတင် ရင်ုံးနှုံး ီ ပမ္ြုပ်နမ္ှု (Index) ှ ပမ္ငတ ် က်လာမ္ှုနင ှ ် ၂၀၂၀ Recent developments Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) CPI Non Food ရရုံးရကာက် ပဲ balance Trade မ္တင ် ီ အရကာင်အထည်ရြာ်ောုံးြယ် ု မ္ 15% ရေည ှ ် အစ CPI Foodုံးု ရ၏ အရပခခအရဆာက်အ အု 40.0% Global growth will be weaker than expected in 2019. The global economic CPI Headline growth rate is estimated to have စီ မ္က slowed 6000 ေ်ုံးto မ္ ာုံးအတ က် ေ 2.4 percent ု စ2019 ုံး in မ္ ဲ မ္ှု ာုံးရကကာင ် ၂၀၁၉/၂၀၂၀ from 3.0 percent in 2018, ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံးနှ စ်တa reflecting င် broad-based Core စီ ုံးပာုံးရရုံးတ inflation ု တက်မ္ှုနေ ုံး weakness ှု in ုံး ်ေ ည် 30.0% ၆.၄ advanced 4000 economies and major emerging market and developing economies. 10% Modest declines are forecasted for global Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels ရာခ ု 2000 င ် ေ န commodity ှု ုံး ှ prices. ် ရမ္ည် ရမ္ ာ်မ္ ဟု Growth ှ ုံး ေ in ေည် ် the ။ Asia East ထု andရမ္ ာ်မ္ှေုံး Pacific ် region ခ က်အis တ က် ရု က projected toခ် slow ှုရှနင တ်မ္from ု ေ ် 6.3 ည ် ပခမ္်in percent ုံးရပခာက် 2018 မ္ှု to 0 20.0% 5.8 percent အနတ ရ ာယ်မ္ ာုံးမ္ှ -2000 on average ာ ကမ္ဘover ာလုံး ုဆthe ု two င ် ာ years ရ နှင ် 2019-20, ရဒေတင် ုံး to and ease စီုံး5% further ပာုံးရရုံး to ရနှ 5.6ုံးတု ုံးရက percent ေဆ ် င ု by ် မ္ှုမ္ ုံး 2021. ာုံး၏ အက ြုုံးဆက် -4000 10.0% Using ေက် 2015/16 ရရာက် as မ္ှု နှင a new ် ဆက် လGDPက်ပြစ်base ရပေါ်လ year,က်ရေည ှMyanmar’ ် မ္ရရရာ s economy isမ္ မ္ရေခ ာမ္ှု ာုံးရကကာငto expected ပ် ြစ်grow ေည်။ atအဆ 6.3 percent ပ ု ါ မ္ရရရာin -6000 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. The service sector0% is the main driver of growth, expected to grow by 0.0% 8.4 percent မ္ရေခ ာမ္ှုမ္in ာုံး2018/19.ပြစ်ရ slow Aပေါ်ရေညrecovery ် in tourism အရကကာင် ုံးရrelated services is offset င်ုံးမ္ ာုံးအေက် တစ်ခ by ု ှာ မ္ continuedရခင ု growth ် ဋပကခin wholesale ပ ပြစ်ပပီုံး Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail trade. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2018/19, on the back of strong အပခာုံး အရကကာင် manufacturing Source: Ministry ုံးရင်ုံးတစ် growth of Commerce ခမ္ ု ှာ slower offsetting အစုံး ု growth ရ၏ in ပပြုပပင် ရပပာင်ုံးလဲ construction. ရရုံး seasonal Despite ေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး and volatile လုပ်ငfloods ယခုအခ ေ်အထ demand, Source: CSO agriculture output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in production ုံးand အာုံးရကာင် ရေရော်export လdestinations. ည်ုံး ထလ ု ပ ု ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံးေည် ၂၀၂၀ ပပညန ှ ် အရထရထရရုံးရကာက်ပဲ က င်ုံးပခါေီုံး ် စ The total ကာလတ င် value မ္ည်ေ ုapproved of ရှ မ္ည်ကု FDI မ္ေ increased နင between ု ပ် ခင်ုံးရကကာင ် ပြစ်ေည်။ The continued under-execution is occurring despite The trade 2017/18 andbalance 2018/19. (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned improved reforms to deficit such as intheQ3 change in the as 2018/19 exports fiscal declined year. (percent and imports rose . Others The Q3 2018/19 decline in exports share was of driven budgeted by capital industrial expenditure ) finished products and တ်တရ Real agricultural ဖံွံ့ ဖဖ products, Transport ျုီးတီးတက် ြှုအရမခအရနြ ီး but Estate &partly offset Communication by rising mineral exports. Imports increased (qoq) in Total Capital Expenditure Q3 2018/19 due to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, Education, products, indicating Agriculture strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing 150% of industrial raw materials supported the robust Energy ကမ္ဘာလin ုံး ို ဆ ို ရ င ် manufacturing ာ Grandစုံးပ ာုံးရရုံး Total တApproved ိုးတက်မှုနန ်ိုးသည် Direct ှု Foreign ၂၀၁၉Investment ခနှစက ် improvedConstruction မမ ်မှန ်ိုးထ ထက် ပto ိုးသည်compared မ growth the sector. in 2018/19 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. ိုးနည်ိုးနင်သည်။ ကမ္ဘာလုံး အ 10,000 ု ဆင ် ာ စီုံးပာုံးရရုံးတုံး ု ရ ု တက်မ္ှုနေ ုံး ် ေည် ြွံ့ ပြြုုံးပပီုံး နင ှု 100% ် ကကီုံးမ္ ာုံးနှင ် အရရုံးပါေည် ု င Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, ရစ ုံးကက် စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး စေစ် စတင် ြငလ ် စ ှ ်လာေည် ြွံ့ ပြြုုံးဆဲ နင ု င် မ္ ာုံးတင် ရယဘုယ အာုံးပြင ် largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 percent5,000 အာုံးေည် in ုံးလ Juneက်ရtoှ 10.9 ပခင် ုံးရကကာင percent (yoy) ခု ် ၂၀၁၈ in နစ ်က before ှ July ၃.၀ ရာခeasing ု န င ် 50% ေှု to် ရှ10.4 ုံး ခဲရာက percent ၂၀၁၉ in August. ခုနစ ှ ်တင် The ၂.၄electricity ရာခင ် price ု န ှု ုံး ေ ် ေု increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 မ္ာနင 1 ပမ္ေ် င ် ၏ ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံးနှစ်ေည် ရအာက်တုဘာလမ္ှ ု DICA စက်တင်ဘ အထ ပြစ် ာလ MOPFI; ေည် ။ staff calculations 1 Source: Source: World Bank Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 52 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor က ဆင်ုံးလာမ္ည်ဟု ် ှေုံး ခေမ္ Myanmar: ် ေည် Macroeconomic ။ ကမ္ဘာတစ် ဝှမ္်ုံး၌ ကုေစ Developments ရစ ုံးနှုေုံး ် ည် ် မ္ ာုံး အေည်ုံးငယ်က ဆင်ုံးလာမ္ည်ဟု ခေUsing ် ှေုံး မ္ 2015/16 ် ေည် as a new ။ အရရှ GDP ွံ့အာရှ ှ ်base နင ပစyear, ြတ်ရMyanmar’s ဒေတတ ု Both ု င် တုံးတက် the နေှု headline ုံး ် ေည် ၂၀၁၈ ခုthe PMI and နစ ် employment ှ က ၆.၃ ရာခ index ု န င ှု ုံး ် ေ ် ရှခဲရာမ္ှ economy is expected tosummary Executive grow at 6.3 percent in 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing output and employment. (Index) နှစ်နစှ ်တာကာလတင် ပ မ္်ုံးမ္ ၅.၈ ရာခင ၂၀၁၉-၂၀၂၀Services ု န ် ေ ှု ုံး ် ော ရှမ္ည်ဟု ခေမ္ ် ေကဲေု ၂၀၂၁ ခုနစ ် ှေုံး ှ ်တင် ၅.၆ ရာခင ု န ် ေ ် ေIndustry ှု ုံး ် ှေုံး ု ထပ်မ္ က ဆင်ုံးလာမ္ည်ဟု ခေမ္ ် ေည်။ Agriculture 8% Summary GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) Future output 6.3% ၂၀၁၅/၂၀၁၆ က GDP အမပခပပြုနှ 6.0% 6.2% စအ ် ပြစ် အသိုးပပြုတွကခ ် ျက်ပါက ပမန်မ ာ့စိုးပွ ိုးမ ိုးသည် ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic ခ နှစက ် uncertainties. ၆.၂ Its င်နန ခeconomyှု ်ိုးမှ ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ is estimated to ခ have 3.2% နှစတ ် grown ွ ် ၆.၃ င ခင်နန at 6.3 percentှု ်ိုးသ ပမငတ in ာ့ 2018/19 ာ့် က် 1, လ မည်ဟ higher marginally ခန်မ ာ့ ှန ်ိုးသည် than ။ 6.2 percent 4% in 2017/18, supported by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. လက်လလ ီ က်ကာုံး ကုေေ ် ယ်မ္ှုမ္ ာုံး တုံး ု ပမ္ငလ ် ာမ္ှုရကကာင ် ခရီုံးောုံးလုပ်ငေ်ုံးနင ှ ် ဆက်စပ်လပ ု ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation Employment 2% 2.4% reaching ပပေ်လည်ထ double ူ ထာင် ရ digits နငု လ ် inာမ္ှုJuly 2019. Economic ရနှုံးရကုံးရော် growth လည်ုံးis expected က ဆင်to reach Contraction 6.4 percent in 2019/20, ုံးမ္ောုံးရစရေ် ထေ်ုံးထာုံးနhelped င ု ေ by ် ည် ။ growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% sectors and government’s PMI Headline plan ned infrastructure 0% ရဆာက် spending လ ု ်ရရုံးလု ပ before 2016/17 the (New ပ်င2020 ေ်2017/18 ုံးမ္ elections. ာုံး (New ရနှRisks ုံးရက 2018/19E toုံးစ ာ economic the (New လည် ပတ်ရေရော် outlook are tilted လည် အာုံးရကာင် toုံး the downside ုံးလာေည due to slowing် Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global ကု ေထ် တ ုand ် regional လ ပ growth, ု ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံးက အရထက် and continued အကူပပြုပခင် uncertainty about investor ုံးရကကာင ် ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ခုန perceptions ှ ်တင် စက်မ္ စ triggered ှုလပ by the Rakhine ု ်ငေ်ုံးကဏ္ဍေည် ၆.၄ Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei elections, although the pace has thus far been strong. ရာခTheင ု န ှု ုံး ေ ် trade ု တုံး ် ေbalance ုတ က်လာမ္ည် improved in Q2 ု ခေမ္ ဟ2018/19 ် ှေbut ုံး ် ေည်။ ရာေီအ လက ု ် ရရလွှ Domestic inflationaryမ္ုံး ု မ္ှု ် မ္ုံး မ္ ာုံးနှင ် have pressures ရစ ုံးကက်ရတာင် increased, with ုံးဆမ္ ု ှု returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. အရပပာင်ုံးအလဲ and imports မ္ ာုံး rose. ရှရော် (US$ လည်ုံး ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ခုနစ million) ှ ်တင် စုကပ (Index) ် ြုုံးရရုံးထုတက ု ် ကဏ္ဍတုံး ် ေ ု တက်မ္ှုေည် ၁.၆ Recent developments CPI Non Food ရာခင ု န ် ေ ် Exports ှု ုံး တင် တည် (US$ပင million) မ္်ရေေကဲေ Imports ု ထုတ (US$ လ ် ပ ု million) ်ကေ ု ် အမ္ ြုုံးအစာုံးမ္ ာုံးပပာုံးစ ုလင်လာပခင်ုံးနှင ် တင်ပုေည် နင CPI Food ် မ္ ာုံး ု င Trade balance 15% 40.0% Global growth will ပုမ္ုမ္6000 ာုံးပပာုံးလာပခင်ုံးကု ရတွံ့ရေည်။ be weaker than expected in 2019 . The global economic growth CPI Headline rate is estimated to have slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation 30.0% 4000 economies and major emerging market and developing economies. 10% Modest declines are forecasted for global Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 2000 commodity prices. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 20.0%to ကန်သယ ွ 0မ ် ှု မ မပခသည် ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ဘဏ္ဍ နှစ၏ ် ဒတယ သိုးလပတ် က လ Q2 တွင ် တိုးတက်လ မသ ်လ ည်ိုး 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5% ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. ပပည် ပ -4000 ပ ကာ့ န် ကျဆင် ိုး လ ပခင်ိုး င နှ ် ာ့ ပပည် တ ွ င ် ိုး သွင ိုး ် က န် ပမင ် တ ာ့ က်လ ပခင်ိုးတမ ာ့ က င ာ့် ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ဘဏ္ဍ နှ စ၏် 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 2018/19 တတ ယ from သိုးလပတ် 6.2 percentက လ in Q3 2017/18. ကန်service တွင ် The သယ ွ မ ် sector ိုး လ is the မငွ 0% ပပလ mainခdriverာ့သည်။of၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ growth, expected ခုနစ ှ ်toQ3 grow တ 0.0% by င် 8.4 percent in 2018/19. A slow recovery in tourism related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 ပ ုကုေ and က် ဆင် retail trade. ုံးလာပခင် The ုံး ေည် စက် industrial မ္ှုကေ sector ် ခ ု ရ is ာ ထုတက expected ် toေ မ္ ု grow ် ာုံးနှင by ုကပ ် စ6.4 ြုုံးရရုံးထု ် percent in တ က် ေ ု မ္ 2018/19, ် ာုံးရကကာင on the ် ပြစ် back နင ေ ် strong ု of ကဲေု manufacturing ေတ တ ြုပုကု Source: ေမ္ Ministry growth ် ာုံး of ပမ္င တ ် က်လာပခင်ုံးရကကာငလ Commerceoffsetting slower growth in ် ည်ုံး တစ်စတ်Source:construction. တစ်ပုင Despite ် ေက်ဆင ုံး seasonal ု ေ floods ် ည်။ ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ခုနစ and volatile demand, ှ ် Q3 တင် CSO agriculture output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in production စာုံးေ ုံး ု ကုေပ ် and စစည export ် မ္ ာုံး၊ destinations. ုံး စက်မ္ှုကေ ု က် ကမ္်ုံး ပစစညုံး ် မ္ ာုံး နှင ် ရင်ုံးနှုံး ီ ပမ္ြုပ်နမ္ှု ှ ပစစညုံး ် မ္ ာုံး တုံး ု ပမ္င ် တင်ေင်ုံးပခင်ုံးကု The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite ကကည The ပ် ခင်ုံး trade 2017/18 အာုံးပြင andbalance 2018/19. ် ပပည် တင်ုံး စုရပါင်ုံး ၀ယ်လအ (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned improved ု ာုံး ပမ္ငတ က် ် reforms to လ ာမ္ှုကု the deficit such as in ေ ညွှQ3 ပ် ပရေေည် change 2018/19 ။ fiscal in the as စက် မ္ှုကေ exports ကမ္်ုံးမ္ ာုံး ု က် declined year. (percent and ေ တင် င်ုံးမ္ှု တrose imports ု ပမ္င ုံး ် The .လ Others ာပခင် Q3 ုံးက 2018/19 ကုေထ ် တု decline ် ပ လ ု ်မ္ှု in exports ကဏ္ဍက ု share ခငုwas driven budgeted capital ် ofာအာုံးရကာင် မ္ ုံးindustrial by expenditure ရစရေ် ) အရထာက် finished အ products ကူပပြုေည် and ။ agricultural products, Transport but & partly offset by rising mineral exports. Imports increased Communication (qoq) in Q3 Total Capital Expenditure 2018/19 due Real Estate to န င ု င the increase ် ပခာုံးရင် ုံးနှုံး ီ ပမ္ြုပ် inOil imports နand မ္ှု ှ ခင ပ် ပြုof Gas consumer မ္ှုမ္ ာုံးေည် goods, ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ industrial raw ခုနစ ှ materials ှ ် နှုင်and ်နင ုံးယှဉ် investment လ င် Education, ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ Health, products, indicating Agriculture ခုနစ ှ ၌် strengthening 15,000 domesticManufacturingaggregate demand. Growth in imports 150% of industrial raw materials Energy supported the robust ပ ု တက် ုမ္ုတုံး growth in the လ ာေည် Grand manufacturing ပမ္ေ်မ္ာန ။ Total ု င င sector. င် နင ် တApprovedု င ် ပခာုံး ီ ပမ္ြုပ် ရင်ုံးနှုံး Foreign Direct နမ္ှု ပမ္ာဏ အမ္ ှ Investment ာုံးဆ improved ုံး ု နင Construction ု in င ် 2018/19 အပြစ် စကက ာပူနင compared ် က ု င to 2017/18. ရှရေပပီုံး တရုတန Singapore ် ငု င remained ် က ဒုတယလက the largest ု ေ် ည်။ foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. 10,000 100% Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 ပပည် တင percent 5,000 ် June ိုး ွ in မငွမ to ကိုးမြ င်သညာ့ င်ိုးပွမစန(yoy) 10.9 percent in ြအ before ် July ပမငတ ိုးမျ ိုး easing to လ က် ာ့် 50% 10.4 သည် ။ ရရာင် percent ုံးလအ in August. င ် electricity ု ာုံးနှ The ေက်ဆင ု ေ် price ည် increase pushed အရကကာင် the ုံးအရာမ္ non-food ာုံးနှ င် CPI sub-index မ္ကကာမ္ီ က လ by upပ် စစ်31.2 percent ဓာတ်အ ာုံးခ and core (yoy) ် မ္ ာုံး (which inflation ေုံး ရစ ုံးနှု တုံး excludes ု ပမ္င လ ု ပ်volatile ် က ခင်ုံးတု food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. ရပါင်ုံးစေ ု 0 ာုံးပခင်ုံးရကကာင ် ၂၀၁၉ ခုနစ ှ ် ဇူလင ် တင် 0% ု လ ရငရကကုံးရြာင်ုံးပမ္ှု ေည် ဂဏေ်ုံးနှစ်ခအ ု ထ 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 63 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor ပမ္ငတ Myanmar: ုံးပနှုေုံး ် က်လာခဲေည်။ ရငရကကုံးရြာင် Macroeconomic ် ေည် ဇေ်လတင် ၉.၅Developmentsု လ ရှရာမ္ှ ဇူလင ု န ် တင် ၁၀.၉ ရာခင ှု ုံး ် ေ ် ေု (yoy) Using ပမ္င တ ် က်2015/16 လာခဲပပီas ုံး a newတ GDP ဩဂု လ base ် တ င် year, ၁၀.၄ Myanmar’s ု န ရာခင ် ေ ် ေု ပပေ်Both ှု ုံး လည် the က headline ဆင်ုံးလ PMI and။the ာေည် လemployment index ပ်စစ် ဓာတ်အ ် ာုံးခ ရစ ုံးနှုေုံး economy is expected tosummary Executive 2018/19 တုံး ု ပမ္ငလ from 6.2 grow at 6.3 percent in percent in 2017/18. (Percent) ် ာပခင်ုံးေည် အစာုံးအစာမ္ဟု တရ ် ော ကုေပ remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing output ် စစညုံး employment. and CPI ် မ္ ာုံး (Index) ကု ၃၁.၂ ရာခင sub-index ် ေ ု န ် အထ ှု ုံး Services ် က်လာရစပပီ ပမ္ငတ ် ရပပာင်ုံးလလ Industryုံး core inflation (ရစ ုံးနှုေုံး ် မ္ ာုံးကု ဲ ယ်ရော အစာုံးအစာနှင ် စမ္်ုံးအင်ရစ ုံးနှုေုံး Agriculture ြယ် လက 8% ု Summary ပ GDP ေည် ် ါက) ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ Production ခုနစ (Constant price ှ ် ပထမ္ ၉ လအတင်ုံး ပ မ္်ုံးမ္ ၆.၄ ရာခင 2015-16) ု န ် ေ ှ Future ှု ုံး ် ရရာမ္ှ ၁၄.၁ ရာခင output ု န ် ေ ် ေု ှု ုံး 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% ပမ္င ် က်လာေည် တ Myanmar’s 6% economy။ continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to have grown at 6.3 percent in 2018/191, marginally higher than 6.2 3.2% percent 4% in 2017/18, supported by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ Macroeconomic ဘဏ္ဍ မ ိုးနှစ volatility ် င တ has ် အမှန် ဘဏ္ဍ ွ increased since မ လမငွ theိုး June ပပမှုသ 2019 ည် မသိုးစွ Myanmar သညာ့ အ Economic ် တွ က် မမEmployment Monitor, ်မှန်ိုးထ with ိုးသညာ့ ် inflation 2% 2.4% reaching double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by Contraction ဘဏ္ဍ growing မ investment ိုးလမငွပပမှုinထthe က် transport မလျ ာ့နand ည်ိုးမနသည် telecommunication 0.8% ။ ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ sectors and ခုနစှ ်အတက် government’s ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံးလ PMI Headline planned infrastructure ရ ု ငပပမ္ှုကု 0% spending before 2016/17 theခု (New 2020 (New Risks elections. ှ 2017/18 ု 2018/19E to၂၀၁၉ the (Neweconomic outlook are ရာခtilted ် to ေု downside ် the ဲ due ဲ to ။slowing Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 စက် တင်ဘ ာ ၂၀၁၈ နစ ်က ၅.၄ ရာခင န ေ ် Base ှု ုံး ် မ္ှ ခုနစ ှ ် ဇေ်လ တင် ၆.၄ ငု န ေ ှု ုံး ရပပာင်ုံးလခ ေည် အမ္ှေ် 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Year) global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine Source: MoPFI, ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံး ု Planning လpace ရ ငပပမ္ှု Department. ဟု Source: ် IHS Markit and Nikkei crisis and the ofေ ည် ၃.၂prior reforms ရာခင န ု to် ေ ် ော ှု the ုံး ရှေည် 2020 general ခေ မ္ ် ှေုံး elections, ထာုံးပပီ ုံး ယင် although ုံးေpace the ပြစ် ု ရhas ပေါ်ရthus ပခင်ုံးမ္ှ far ာ been ရငလstrong.ုံး ု ရငရင်ုံး The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returnedမ္ ဘဏ္ဍာရင toာုံးအာုံး in deficit ဘတ် ဂ က်လ Q3 2018/19 ာထာုံးခ as exports က်ေညအ declined ် တင ု ုံး အပပည ် headline အ ် ၀ မ္ေ inflation ုံး ု စဲန rising ် ခင်ုံးရကကာင ု ပdouble င to digits ပ ် in ြစ် ေည် July ု ု ။ ထေ 2019. and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) မ္ေုံး ု Recent ု စဲနင ် ှုေည် မ္ Exports developments ဘဏ္ဍာနှ (US$ စအ million) စ်စဥ် ဧပပီ ် ာုံး နှImports (US$၁ ရက် - မ္တ်လ ၃၁ အထCPI million) အစာုံး ရအာက်တဘ Non Food ု ာလ ၁ ရက်ရေမ္ှ Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% Global စက်တင် growth ဘာ ၃၀ will ရက်beရ weaker ေေရပပာင် ု than ုံးလexpected ဲ ေတ်မ္ှတ in် 2019 လ ကု ရ ် . ော် Theလ global ည်ုံး economic ဆက် လ CPI က် growth Headline ပြစ်ရပေါ်rate လis estimated က် ရေည် ှ ။ to အစhave ုရ ုံး 6000 slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation 30.0% ရရင4000ရကာက် economies and စုရဆာင် ခ major emergingုံး ပခင်ုံးေည် market ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ and developing ခုနစ ှ economies. ်က 10%GDP Modest ၁၆.၄ ၏ Housing, ရာခ declines water, င ု န ေ ် are ှု ုံး ် ရှ electricity, ခဲand ရာမ္ှ other၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ forecasted gas for global fuels 2000 commodity ခုနစ ှ ်တင် prices. Growth 0 ၁၆.၈ ရာခင ် ေ ု န ် ေin ှု ုံး ု မ္ဆ ု East theစ ရလာက် Asia ေ and Pacific ာ ပမ္င တ ် က် region လာေည် is projected ။ to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 20.0% 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5% ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. -4000 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 စီးပ ီးရfrom 2018/19 ီးရြ 6.2 ်ြ ှ ီး န percent ် ခ က် in နှင ာ့် အနတရ 2017/18. Theာယ် စေ်ရ service ခေါ်မ္0% sector ှုမ္ is ာုံး the main driver of growth, expected to grow by 0.0% 8.4 percent in 2018/19. A slow recovery in tourism related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail trade. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2018/19, on the back of strong manufacturing ပမန် မ ာ့စိုးပွ Source: ိုးမ growth Ministry ိုး Commerce of offsetting အလ ိုးအလ slower construction. growth inတည် သည် ငငမ်မနမည် Despite ။ seasonal ၂၀၁၉/၂၀၂floods and volatileစdemand, ဘဏ္ဍာနှ ်အတက် Source: CSO agriculture output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in စီုံးပာုံးရရုံးတ production and ုံး ု တက် ှု ုံး နေ export ် ေည် ပပည်တင်ုံး ၀ယ်လအ destinations. ု ာုံးရကကာင ် ၂၀၁၈/၁၉ ဘဏ္ဍာနှစထ ် က် ၀.၁ ရာခင ် ေ ု န ် ပမ္ ှု ုံး ု ု တThe Theုံး ု တက် trade total value of approved FDI increased between ာမ္ည်ဟု improved လbalance ရမ္ ာ်မ္ှေုံး ် ေည်။ အစုုံးရ၏ ၂၀၂၀ The continued under-execution is occurring despite အရထ ရထရရ ုံးရကာက် ပဲ မ္တ ု မ္ င အရပခခ ် ီ declined 2017/18 and 2018/19. (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned to reforms such as in deficit theQ3change in the as 2018/19 fiscalexports year. (percent and အရဆာက် imports အအ rose ုက . The ဏ္ဍတ Others ုံး Q3 ု ပမ္င ရ 2018/19စီမ္ ် စရရုံး ခ က်မ္ in decline exports ာုံးရကကာင ် was share of budgeted ေယ် driven ယပ by expenditure ူ capital ုရဆာင် industrial ရရုံးနှင) ် finished ဆက်ေယ် products ရရုံးတတ ု andင် agricultural products, Transport but & partly offset by rising mineral exports. Imports increased Communication (qoq) in Total Capital Expenditure Q3 2018/19 due Real Estate to the ရင် ုံးနှုံး increase ီ ပမ္ြုပ် နမ္ှု ှ တ in ုံး ပမ္င ု Oilimports လ ် Gas and ာမ္ှုမ္of ှ consumer ာ ဆက်လက်goods, တည်ပငindustrial မ္်စာ တုံး ု တက် raw ရ materials ေမ္ည်။ ဆက် and investment စ ပ်အခ Health, က်အ Education, products, လက် Agriculture indicating မ္ ာုံးပြစ် ေည် strengthening 15,000 domestic Manufacturingaggregate demand. Growth in imports of 150% industrial raw materials Energy supported the robust Grand Total Construction ရဆာက် growth in လtheု ်ရရုံးခ ပ ငပ် ပြုမ္ manufacturing ေမ္ ် ာုံး sector. ေောစ ာ ခ ထာုံးရပုံးပခင် Approved Foreign Direct ုံးနှင ် Investment ကကီုံးမ္ာုံးရော FDI ရင် improved နှုံး ီ ပမ္ြုပ်နမ္ှု in ုံး2018/19 ှ compared လပ ာုံး ု ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ to 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. ဝင်ရ ရာက်မ္ည်ဟု ကတပပြုမ္ှု တုံး 10,000 ု ပမ္ငလ ် ာပခင်ုံးတရကကာင ု ် 100% ၂၀၁၉/၂၀၂၀ ခုနစ ှ ် ရဆာက်လပ ု ်ရရုံးလုပ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, တ ု တက် ုံး largely dueလto theဟ ာမ္ည် ု ခေမ္ confluence် ှေုံး်ေ ည်supply of ။ နင ု င ် ပခာုံး factorsကုမ္ ပ မ္ ဏ and ီ the ဝင်ရရာက် ာုံး recent လာမ္ှုရ electricity ကကာင price ် စက်မ္ှုက increase. ဏ္ဍေည်rose Inflation ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ from 9.5 percent ခုနစ 5,000 in June to ှ ်တင် ပုမ္ုလ င်ပမ္ေ်ေည် နှုေုံး 10.9 percent (yoy) in ် ပြင ် တုံး July before ု ပမ္ငလ easing ် ာမ္ည်ဟု ခေမ္ to 50% 10.4 ် ှေုံး percent ် ရေည်။ ကာလလတ် ခေမ္in August. The electricity ် ှေုံး ် ခ က် price တင် increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile food လ ပ်စ and စ်ဓenergy ါတ်အာုံး prices), တrose ုံး ု ပမ္ငရ to ် ရှ 14.1 လာပခင် ုံးနှင ် from percent နငု anင average ် ပခာုံး ဘဏ် of ာုံး percent မ္6.4 in theလ ဝင်ရရာက် first nine ာမ္ှု ရကကာင months ် of 2018/19. အထူ ုံးေပြင ် 0 0% 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 ရဆာက်လပ ်ရရုံး၊ ကုေထ ု 2015-16 တု လ် ပ ် 2016-17 ု ်ရရုံးနှင ် 2017-18 ် ယ်ရရုံးလုပ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး အတက် ရခ ုံးရငရရှနင ကုေေ 2018-19 ် ှု အခငအ ု မ္ ် လမ္်ုံးမ္ ာုံး 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 74 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor တုံး ု ု ပာုံးလာပခင်ုံးတရကကာင ် Myanmar: စီုံး Macroeconomic ပာုံးရရုံးေည် ု ကာင်ုံးမ္Developments ပုမ္ရ ေ်ေည် ် ခ က်မ္ ာုံးနှင ် ရမ္ ာ်မ္ှေုံး လ င်ပမ္ေ်စာ Using လည် ပပေ် 2015/16 as a new အာုံးရကာင် GDP ုံးလာနင ် base ု ေ ည်။year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index economy is expected tosummary Executive grow at 6.3 percent in 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing output and employment. (Index) ို င နင င် ် တကာနှ Servicesပပည်တင်ုံးအရပြေအရေတရ ို ကာင ် စုံးပာုံးရရုံးရမ္ ာ်မ္ှေ်ုံးြေျက်မ္ျာုံးကို ် င ထြေိုကန ် ပြေမ္ျာုံး ို ရ Industry သည်။ ကမ္ဘာလုုံးဆင ရှမနဆပြစ်Agriculture ် ာ နှင် ရဒေတင်ုံး စီုံးပာုံးရရုံးတုုံးတက်မ္ှု ရနှုံးရက ု ရ ုံးပခင်ုံး အထူုံးေပြင် 8% Summary GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) Future output 6.3% တရုတ်နင ် 6.0% ု င နှင် ကမ္ဘာကု ေေ် ယ်ရရုံး တင် 6.2% ုံးမ္ာမ္ှုမ္ ာုံးေည် ပမ္ေ်မ္ာစီုံးပာုံးရရုံးအရပေါ် ရနှုံးရကုံးလာေည် Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show despite the global slowdown and domestic resilience Expansion uncertainties. ပပင် ပဝယ်လုအ Its economy ာုံးမ္ ှ ် isပပည် ာုံးနင ပရင်ုံးto estimated န ီှ have ုံး 3.2% grown ပမ္ြုပ်န မ္ှု ှ at 6.3 ဝင် ရရာက်percentလာပခင်in 2018/19 ု တ ုံးတမ္ှ 1, marginally higher than 6.2 စ်ဆင် ေက်ရရာက်မ္ှု percent 4% in 2017/18, supported by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. ရှ လာနင ု ပ Macroeconomic ။ ေယ်စပ် ် ါေည်volatility ရဒေ has လုပခြုရရုံး increased since အရပခအရေမ္ the June 2019 ရခင ု ပ် ပည်Economic ာုံး၊ Myanmar ေယ်၏ ပဋMonitor,ပကခနင ှ ် အတင် ုံးအဓမ္မ with inflation 2% 2.4% Employment reaching double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by Contraction အုုံးအမ္်စေခ ် ာ ရရွှွံ့ရပပာင်ုံးမ္ှုမ္ ာုံး၊ အပပည်ပပည်ဆင ု ရ ် ာ တရာုံးရု ုံးတင် တရာုံးရ င်ဆ PMI ု ရ င ် ပြရှငုံး Headline ် ရမ္ှုမ္ ာုံးေည် growing 0% investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% sectors and government’s planned infrastructure spending ရင်ုံးနုံး before ီှ ပမ္ြုပ် နေူ ှ မ္ 2016/17 the (New 2020 ာုံး၏ elections. 2017/18 (New Risks ေရဘာထာုံးအရပေါ် to the 2018/19E ေက် (Neweconomic ရရာက်မ္ outlook ှုမ္ ာုံး ရှနareု ေ င ည်။to ် tilted ထ theု downside အပပင် ၂၀၂၀ dueပပညto ်နslowing စ ှ ်တင် Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine အရထSource: crisis and ရထMoPFI, the ရရ ုံးရကာက် Planning pace Department. of reformsပဲမ္ ာုံး က prior to င်ုံးပ the 2020 ရေ် general ရှရေပခင် က Markit Source:ုံးIHS elections, နင although ုand် တကာ င Nikkei the pace has အရတ ွံ့အbeen thus far ကကြုမ္ ာုံးအရ strong. The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returnedမ္ မ္ရရရာမ္ှု toာုံးအတ deficit in Q3 အရကကာင် က် ုံးရင်ုံးတ 2018/19 as exports စ်ရပ်ပြစ်ေည် declined ။ headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) Recent developments Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) CPI Non Food ယခု အစီ ရင် Trade ် င်ုံးရြာ် ခစာတင် အထူုံးပပြု ထညေ balance 15%ပပထာုံးေည CPI် Food အရကကာင်ုံးအရာ 40.0% Global growth will be weaker than expected in 2019. The global economic growth rate is estimated to have CPI Headline 6000 slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation 30.0% ပမန် မ နင်ငတွ 4000 economies andင ် major အရှန်အ ဟန်မက emerging ြွွံ့ ငြ င်ိုးစွ and market ြုိုးလ လျက် developing ရ ှသညာ့ ် ပဂ္ဂလ economies. 10% က Modest စိုးပွ ိုးမelectricity, declines Housing, water, ကဏ္ဍသည် ိုး are forecasted ထ gas and other fuels တ်လ for ပ် မှု global 2000 commodity prices. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 20.0% စွမ်ိုးအ 0 ိုး အ ိုးနည်ိုးမှုက အဟန်အ ာ့ တ ိုးတစ်ခသြွယ် ပြစ်လျက်ရှသည်။ ပုဂဂလက စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး ကဏ္ဍေည် 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5% ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. -4000 ရော်လည်ုံး လ င်ပမ္ေ်စာ ခ ဲွံ့ထင် ကကီုံးထာုံးလာလ က်ရှေည်။ ပပည်တင်ုံး ကုမ္ပဏမ္ ရေုံးငယ် Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at င ီ ာုံးနှ ် နှုင် 6.3 ုံးယှဉ်10.0% percent လin င် -6000 2018/19 န ု င င ် ပခာုံး from ကုမ္ 6.2 ပဏမ္ ာုံးေည်in 2017/18. ီpercent ပ မ္်ုံးမ္ ဝေ် The ထ service မ္်ုံးအရရအတ sector0% is က် the ပ main ုမ္ုခေdriver ထ ် ာုံးနင ု of ေ ကဲေု expected ် growth, ထုတလ ် ပ ု to grow ်မ္ှုစ မ္်ုံး by အာုံး 0.0% 8.4 percent in 2018/19. A slow recovery in tourism related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail ရကာင် ုံးပခင် ုံး နှငThe trade. industrial ် လစာပမ္င ပ် မ္ငရ် sector ပုံးပခင် is expected ုံးတ ု ပပြုလုပ to ်နင ် ည်by ု grow ေ ။ ပမ္ေ် percent 6.4 မ္ ာနင ု င် ေည်in 2018/19, on ကမ္ဘာရပေါ် တ င် back the အလof strong င်ပမ္ေ် ဆုံးု manufacturing growth Source: Ministry of Commerce offsetting slower growth in construction. Despite seasonal floods and volatile demand, တ ု တက်လoutput ုံး agriculture က်ရေည ှ growth ် ရစ ုံးisက က်မ္ ာုံး တည် projected to be ှ stable ရရာ နငု င် at ာုံးSource: မ္ 1.6 အကကာုံး percent CSOမ္ဟာဗ ျူဟာ က က တည်ရရေရော် in 2018/19, with greater diversification ှ လည် ုံး in production and export destinations. ဆယ်စုနစ ှ ်မ္ ာုံးစာ ကကာပမ္ငေ ် ည် နင ု င ် တကာနှင ် အဆက်ပပတ်ခမ္ှု ဲ နှင ် စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး ပတ်ဆမ္ှု ု မ္ ာုံးရကကာင ် ပမ္ေ်မ္ာ The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but returned to deficit in theQ3 2018/19 as exports declined ပပည် 2017/18 တင်ုံးand ာုံးရရုံး. (US$ 2018/19 စီုံးပ လုပ်င million) ေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး၏ ြွံ့ ပြြုုံးတုံး ု တက်မ္ှုနင ှ ်န reforms င ု င ် တကာနှ such င as် ဆက် change ေယ်inလု ပfiscal the ်ရဆာင် year ု. စ နင ်(percent မ္်ုံးတတ ု င် and imports rose . The Others Q3 2018/19 decline in exports was share of driven budgeted by capital industrial expenditure ) finished products and agricultural ဆက်လက်၍ အတာုံးအဆီ products, but Transport partly & offset Communication ုံးမ္ ာုံး ရင်ဆင ု ရby rising mineral ် ေကကရဆဲ ပြစ်ေည်။ exports. Imports increased (qoq) in Q3 Total Capital Expenditure 2018/19 due Real Estate to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, products, Education, Agriculture indicating strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing of industrial raw materials supported the robust Energy စ ိုးပွ ိုးမ inိုး theလ growth ငန်ိုးမျ ပ်Grand manufacturing ိုးအမနပြင Total sector. ာ့် Approved အမထ က် အပာ့သင Foreign ် အ150% ွ Direct ိုး ိုးစ မျ ိုး Investment ရှန င်မ ှု ၊ in Construction improved လ2018/19 ပ် ငန်ိုးမျ compared ိုးအချင်ိုးချင် toိုး 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. ပမအ ိုးမက င်ိုးသညာ့ ် ချတ်ဆက်မဆ င် ွ က်နင်မှု ၊ တ ဝန်ယမ 10,000 ူ ှု /တ ဝန်ခမှု ရှမသ ပဂ္ဂလက ကဏ္ဍပြစ်မစ န် 100% Domestic ပ inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased ဂ ကto double digits in 2019, Julyမ္ ာ့ပိုးမပိုးနင်သညာ့ ် ပတ်ဝန်ိုးကျင်အခင်ိုးအကျင်ိုးမျ ိုး လအပ် လျက်ရှသည်။ ပုဂလ ကဏ္ဍ ြွံ့ ပြ ြုုံးတုံးု တက် ှုအာုံး largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 percent မ္ူ ၀ါဒဆ ု in 5,000 င ရ June ် ာ အခဲpercent to 10.9 အခက် မ္ ာုံးနှင ် (yoy) ကေေ ် in တ် July before easing ထာုံးရော to 10.4 50% စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး ပတ်percent ဝေ်ုံးက င်in August. အခင်ုံးအက Theင် electricity ုံးတက ု အဓ price က increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile အဟေ food and အ energy ပြစ် ် တာုံး ရေေည် prices), rose။to 14.1 percent လု စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး ေ်ုံးမ္ ပ်ငan from ာုံးစာအတ average of 6.4 ရငရရုံး က်percent ရကကုံး firstရ in the ရုံး months nine ပပုုံးမ္ှု of ရယူ ရာတင် 2018/19. 0 0% 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 အခက်အခဲရ2015-16 ပခင် ှ ုံးက ပုဂ ဂလက 2016-17 စီုံးပ ာုံးရရုံး 2017-18 2018-19 ု တက်ရရုံး (Private ကဏ္ဍ ြွံ့ ပြြုုံးတုံး Sector Development (PSD)) ကု 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 85 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor အဓက ။ လုပMacroeconomic Myanmar: အတာုံးအဆီုံးပြစ်ရစေည် Developments ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး အထူုံးေပြင ် SMEမ္ ာုံး ု အမ္ ာုံးဆုံး ု ရ ရင်ဆင ် ေည် Using ဒုတယအခက်2015/16 အ as a ှာ new ခဲမ္ GDP ကျွ base မ္်ုံးက င်လyear, ု ်ေ ပ Myanmar’s ု မ္ ာုံး ရရှနင Both the ် ှု အကေ အ headline ် ေတ် PMI ရှပခင် and ုံးပြစ် ေthe ည်employment index ။ ရပမ္ယာပပဿောေည် economy is expected tosummary Executive grow at 6.3 percent in 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing output and employment. (Index) ု င နင ် တင်ုံး ရင် ုံးနှုံး ီ ပမ္ြုပ်နမ္ှု ှ နှင ် ဘဏ္ဍာရငရကကုံး အရထာက်အပ ရရှနင Services ် ှုမ္ ာုံးကု အတာုံးအဆီုံး ပြစ်ရေဆဲပြစ်ေည်။ ု မ္ Industry ် ာေည ပုမ္ှေလ ု င ် လ ပ်စစ်ဓာတ်အာုံး ရရှရရုံးေည်လည်ုံး ပမ္ေ်မ္ာနင ် တင်ုံးရှ လုပ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံးအတက် အဓက စေ်ရခေါ်မ္ှု Agriculture 8% Summary Future output ပြစ် ရေဆဲပြစ် ေည် GDP ။ အဆ Production ပ ါ အခက် ု6.2% (Constant price အ ခဲ 2015-16) 6.3% အတာုံးအဆီုံးမ္ ာုံးပြစ်ရပေါ်ရပခင်ုံးမ္ှာ အစုံး ု ရ၏ ထေ်ုံးခ ြုပ်မ္ှုမ္ ာုံးက 6.0% Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic လုပ ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး တုံး ု တက်ကကီုံးထာုံးရစရေ် အရထာက်အကူပပြုပခင်ုံးထက် အဟေအ ် တာုံးပြစ်ရစေည် စီုံးပာုံးရရုံး uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to 3.2% have grown at 6.3 percent in 2018/191, marginally higher than 6.2 percent 4% ုံးအက အခင် in င်2017/18, ုံးကု ပြစ်supported by better ရပေါ်ရစပခင်ုံးရကကာင် performance ုံး ပြစ် ေည်။ အဆ in ပ ု the ါ အခ က်အလက်မ္ and manufacturing ာုံးက services စုကပ sectors.င် ် ြုုံးရရုံးနှ Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation Employment စ ုက 2% ် ြုုံးရရုံးထု ပ reaching double တdigits ် ေ က ု ် စီ inုံးပ ာုံးရ2019. July ရုံးလုပ ်ငေ်ုံးမ္2.4% ာုံး၊ အထည် Economic growthခ isြုပ် လ ပ ု ်ငေ်ုံးနှ expected Contraction င ် reach to ခရီုံးေ ာုံးလု 6.4 ပ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ percent inာုံးကဲေရော ု helped 2019/20, အဓက by growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% sectors and government’sPMI Headline plan ned infrastructure ေယ်0%ပယ်မ္ ာုံး ြွံ့ ပြြုုံးတုံးု တက်ရရုံးတင် ေက်ရရာက်မ္ရ ှ ှု ရေေည် ကု ရတွံ့ရေည်။ spending2016/17 before(Newthe 2020 (New Risks elections. 2017/18 2018/19E to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside due to slowing (New Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine ပမန် မ န Source: င်င ၏ MoPFI, ဧ ယ Planning သ Department. crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the ိုးပတစ် ပ တွ င ် 2020 လက် နက်က general င်အြွွံ့အ Source: IHS elections, စည် ိုးမျand Markit although ိုး Nikkei နှငpace the ာ့် လက် hasန က်က thus င် been far ပဋပကခ မျ ိုး strong. The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with တည် ရှမနပခင် returned ိုးက in to deficit စိုးပွ ိုးမ ိုး as Q3 2018/19 ကဏ္ဍအတွ င်ိုးစန်မinflation က် ထပ် မလheadline exports declined မစသည် ခပြစ်to ခေါ်မှုတစ်rising double ။ ပဋ digits ပကခ in ရ2019. July ဒေမ္ ာုံးရှ and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) ပ်ငေ်ုံးdevelopments စီုံးပာုံးရရုံးလု Recent မ္ ာုံးေည် ် ည်ထက် ရှေငေ ကကီုံးရလုံးရော ကုေက CPI Non Food် စရတ်မ္ ာုံး ရှရေေည်။ Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% စီ ုံးပာုံးရရုံးစာရင် Global growth ုံးwill အင်be ု ရ င ် ာ than ုံးဆweaker ရလexpected လာမ္ှုမ္ ာုံးအရ in 2019. လက် ေက်က The global ု အ င ြHeadline ် CPI economic ဲွံ့အစည် growth rate isကာလရှ ုံးမ္ ာုံး estimated ညto က ် ကာစ have ာ 6000 slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation တည် ရှရေပခင်ုံးရကကာင ် စီုံးပာုံးရရုံးလုပ်ငေ်ုံးမ္ ာုံး တုံး 4000 ု တက် အာုံးရကာင်ုံးလာမ္ှု က electricity, အ ု အတာုံး and ုံး ဆီ ပြစ် ရစေည် 30.0% ။ economies and major emerging market and developing economies. 10% ModestHousing, declines water, are gasforecasted other for global fuels 2000 commodity ထ ု အပပင် 0 prices. ပဋပကခ Growth ေည် in theကု East ေထ ် Asia တ ု လ် and ု ်ရPacific ပ ရုံးကဏ္ဍတ regionင် is projected အလုပ်အ toက ု ် from slow င အခ 6.3ငအpercent ် လမ္်ုံးမ္ inာုံး 2018အ to ရပေါ် 20.0% 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5% ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. ဆုံး ုက ြုုံး -4000 ေ က် ရ ရာက် ေ ည် ။ 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. The service sector0% is the main driver of growth, expected to grow 0.0% by ပ ဂ္ဂ လ 8.4 percentက ကဏ္ဍဦိုးမဆ in 2018/19. A င်slow သညာ့recovery ် ြွွံ့ ငြြုိုးတ ိုးတက်မ related in tourism က် မူဝ ိုးအတွservices ါဒမျ is ိုးတ offset by (က) ရစ င်continued ုံးကက် growth inခ ဲွံ့ထင် wholesale မ္ှုကု Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail trade. အာုံးရပုံးရေ် The industrial (ခ) အရင် ုံးအပမ္စ်မ္ ာုံး sector ဲ ဝအေ ခရ is expectedုံး ု ခ နင ် to ု မ္ ှု ပgrow ုမ္ရ by 6.4 ု ကာင် percent ရစရေ် ၊in ုံးမ္ေ် (ဂ) 2018/19, ရစ ုံးကက် onတ the ပါဝင်of င် back ေမ္ ူ strong ာုံး၏ manufacturing growth Source: Ministry of Commerce offsetting slower growth in construction. Despite seasonal floods and volatile demand, Source: CSO agriculture အရည် အရေ output ုံး တုံး growth ု တက် isြုုံးရစရေ် ြွံ့ ပြ projected တto be ေ ု ပါဝင် stable ည်။ at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in production and export destinations. The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite The trade 2017/18 balance and 2018/19. (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned improved to deficit reforms such as intheQ3 2018/19 change in the as exports fiscal declined year. (percent and imports rose . OthersThe Q3 2018/19 decline in exports was share of driven budgeted by capital industrial expenditure ) finished products and agricultural products, but & Transport partly offset by rising mineral exports. Imports increased Communication (qoq) in Q3 Total Capital Expenditure2018/19 due Real Estate to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, products, Education, indicating Agriculture strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing 150% of industrial raw materials supported the robust Energy Grand Total sector. Approved Foreign Direct Investment improved Construction growth in the manufacturing in 2018/19 compared to 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. 10,000 100% Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 percent to 10.4 percent in August. The electricity price in June to 10.9 percent (yoy) in July before easing 50% 5,000 increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 96 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments ၂၀၁၅/၂၀၁၆ Using 2015/16 ဘဏ္ဍာနှ as a new စက GDP base ် ု GDP year,စ အရပခပပြုနှ အ် ပြစ် Myanmar’s Headline PMI နှင Both the headline ် အလု PMI andပ်ေ မ္ာုံးခေ the ထ ် ာုံးမ္ှု ညွှေုံး employment ် ကေ်ုံး index Executive summary economy အေုံး is expected ု ပပြု၍ ပမ္ေ်မ္ာနင ု င to grow at 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) 6.3 percent in ် ၏ စီုံးပာုံးရရုံးေည် ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ remained ် လ နှစခ ု ုံး above 50, signaling ု ေည် ၅၀ အထက်တင်ဆက်လက် တည်ရှရေပပီုံး output and employment. (Index) increases in manufacturing ှ က ခုနစ ရာခင ် ၆.၂ Services ု န ် ေ ် ရှခဲရာက ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ှု ုံး ကုေထ ် တု လ ် ပု ်မ္ှု အထက်နေ ် နင ှု ုံး ှ ် အလုပ်အကင ် ရှမ္ှုတု ု ရ ် Industry ဘဏ္ဍာနှစတ င် ၆.၃ ရာခင ု န ် ေု တုံး ် ေ ှု ုံး ု ပမ္ငလ ် ာမ္ည်ဟု တုံး ် ာရကကာင်ုံး ညွှေပ် ပရေေည်။ (Index) ု ပမ္ငလ Agriculture ခေ 8% ် ေ မ္ ှ ုံး ်ေ Summary ။ (ရာခ ည်GDP င ု န ် ေ ်) ှု ုံး Production (Constant price 2015-16) Future output 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% Services Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic Industry Future output uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to Agriculture have grown at 6.3 percent in 2018/191, marginally 3.2% higher than 6.2 percent 4% 8% in 2017/18, supported by better GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. Expansion Macroeconomic 6.0% volatility has 6.2% increased 6.3% since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation 2% 2.4% Employment reaching 6% double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by Contraction growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% 3.2% PMI Headline sectors and government’s planned infrastructure 0% 4% spending2016/17 before(New the 2020 2017/18 elections. (New Risks to the 2018/19E economicContraction (New outlook are tilted to the downside Employment due to slowing Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) 2% and regional growth, and continued global uncertainty about investor perceptions 2.4% triggered by the Rakhine PMI Headline Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei elections, although the pace has thus far been strong. Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Apr- Oct-18 Apr- Oct-19 Jan-18 Jan-19 0.8% 18 19 0% trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but The Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returned to deficit 2016/17 (New in Q3 2018/19 2017/18 as exports (New declined 2018/19E (New headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. and imports Baserose. Year) (US$ million) Base Year) Base Year) Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei (Index) Source:Recent MoPFI, developments ExportsPlanning (US$ Department. Imports (US$ million) million) CPI Non Food Trade balance CPI Food ပပည်တ 15% ရကကုံး င်ုံး ရငeconomicရြာင် ုံးgrowth ပရစမ္ည် rate ြအာုံး 40.0% Global growth will be weaker than expected in 2019. The global CPI Headline ာုံး isမ္estimated to have 6000 ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ ဘဏ္ဍာနှ စ ် Q2တ င် ကုေ ေ ် ယ် ရ ရုံး slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018,ဟ ခ ေ် က် ပမ္ငတ် reflecting က်လာပပီုံး ဇူ aလ broad-based Core ု ် ၂၀၁၉ တင် ရင င inflation weakness ရကကုံးရြာင်in ုံးပမ္ှုadvanced ေည် 30.0% 4000 economies ု တက်ရကာင် တုံး and ုံးmajor emerging မ္ေ်လာရော် market and လည်ုံး ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ developing ဘဏ္ဍာနှ စ် economies. 10% ဂဏေ် ုံး စ နှ ် လ Modest ု ုံးအ ထ Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels ပမ္င တ ် declines က် လ are ာေည် ။forecasted (Index) for global 2000 commodity Q3တင် ု ေက 0 ပကု prices. Growth inု the ် ဆင်ုံး၍ ေင်ုံးကေ တ ် ုံး East ု ပမ္ငလ Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 ် ာရောရကကာင ် to 20.0% CPI Non Food 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5% ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. CPI Food ကုေေ ု ငပပမ္ှု ပပေ်လည်ပြစ်ရပေါ်ေည်။ (US$ ် ယ်ရရုံး လရ 15% 40.0% -4000 CPI Headline 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected million) to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 Core inflation 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. The service sector0% is the main driver of growth, expected to grow Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels by 30.0% 0.0% 10% 8.4 percent in 2018/19. Exports A slow recovery (US$ million) in tourism Imports (US$ million) related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retailTrade balance trade. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2018/19, on the back of strong 20.0% manufacturing 6000Ministry of Commerce Source: growth offsetting slower growth in construction. 5% Despite seasonal floods and volatile demand, Source: CSO 4000 output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification agriculture in 10.0% production 2000 and export destinations. 0 value of approved FDI increased between 0% 0.0% The total The continued under-execution is occurring despite Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 The trade -2000 2017/18 balance and improved 2018/19. (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned to deficit reforms such as intheQ3 2018/19 change in the as exports fiscal declined year. (percent imports rose and-4000 . The Q3 2018/19 decline in Others exports was share driven of budgeted by expenditure industrial capital ) finished products and agricultural -6000 products, partly but & Transport offset by rising mineral exports. Communication Imports increased Source: CSO (qoq) Total Capital in Q3 2018/19 due Expenditure Real Estate to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, products, Education, indicating Agriculture strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing of 150% industrial raw materials Energy supported the robust Grand Total sector. Approved Foreign Direct Investment improved Construction growth in the manufacturing in 2018/19 compared to Source: Ministry 2017/18. of Commerce Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. 10,000 100% Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, ခငပ် ပြုခဲ largely ေည due စရ to် စု the ုံး FDI ပမ္ာဏ ု ပါင် confluence of ေည် ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ supply နှင ် the recent factors and ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ electricity ဘဏ္ဍာနှ price actual ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံး စ် increase. Inflation လရ ု rose ငေည်from 9.5 percent 5,000 ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉in June to 10.9 အကကာုံးတင် ပမ္င ် က်လ(yoy) percent တ ာေည်။ in July (US$ before easing million) to ု 50% ေုံးစ 10.4ွံ့ာေည် percent ဲမ္ှု ရလ ုံးေညအ ် inတAugust. က် ပပေ်လTheည်ပပင် electricity ဆင်ထာုံးေည price ် increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံးလရ ု ငထက်ပင် ရလ ာေည်ုံးခေည် ဲ ။ (လ ာထာုံး food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. 0 ရငလုံး0%ု ရငရင်ုံးအေုံး ု စရတ် ပါဝင်မ္ှု ရာခင ် ေ ု န ်) ှု ုံး 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 10 7 -4000 -6000 Source: CSO Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Source: Ministry of Commerce Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments ခ Using ု ပါင် ငပ် ပြုခဲ2015/16 ေည် စုစas ရ ုံး FDI a new ပမ္ာဏ GDP ေည် base ၂၀၁၇/၂၀၁၈ year, Myanmar’sနှင ် ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ Both the headline ဘဏ္ဍာနှ PMI စ ် actual and ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံးလ the employment ရ ု ငေည် index Executive summary economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in ၂၀၁၈/၂၀၁၉ အကကာုံးတင် ပမ္ငတ ် က်လာေည်။ (US$ million) 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing ု စဲမ္ှု ရလ ွံ့ာေည်ုံးေညအ ေုံး output and employment. (Index) ် တက် ပပေ်လည်ပပင်ဆင်ထာုံးေည် Services ဘဏ္ဍာရရုံးလရ ဲ ု ငထက်ပင် ရလ ာေည်ုံးခေည် ။ (လ ာထာုံး Industry Others ရငလုံးု ရငရင်ုံးအေုံး ု စရတ် ပါဝင် Total မ္ှု ရာခ Capital ု န င ် ေ ်) ှု ုံး Expenditure Agriculture Transport & Communication Health, Education, Agriculture 8% Summary Real Estate GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) Energy Future output Oil and Gas6.2% Others 6.3% 150% Total Capital Expenditure 15,000 6.0% Manufacturing Construction Transport & Communication Myanmar’s 6% economy Grand Real continues Total Estate to show resilience despite Expansion the global slowdown Health, and domestic Education, Agriculture Energy uncertainties. 15,000 Its economy Oil and Gas is estimated to have grown at 6.3 3.2% percent in 2018/19 150% 1, marginally higher than 6.2 Construction Manufacturing 100% percent 4% 10,000 in 2017/18, supported Grand Total by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, 7 with inflation 2% 2.4% 100% Employment 10,000double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected reaching 50% to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by Contraction growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% sectors and government’sPMI Headline planned infrastructure 0%5,000 before(New spending2016/17 the 2020 elections. 2017/18 (New Risks to the 2018/19E economic outlook (New are tilted to the downside due to slowing Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 50% 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine 5,000 0% Source:0MoPFI, Planning Department. 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general Source: IHS Markit elections, and Nikkei although the pace has thus far been strong. 2016-17 2015-16improved 2017-18 2018-19 0%MOPFI; Source: World Bank staff calculations The trade balance in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with Source: returnedDICA 2014/15 headline inflation rising 2015/16 in July 2017/18 2016/17 0 to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined to double digits 2019. and imports rose. (US$2016-17 2015-16 million) 2017-18 2018-19 (Index) Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Source:Recent DICA developments Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) CPI Non Food Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% Global growth will be weaker than expected in 2019. The global economic growth rate is estimated to have CPI Headline 6000 slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation 4000 30.0% economies and major emerging market and developing economies. 10% Modest declines are forecasted for global Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 2000 commodity 0 prices. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 20.0% 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5%ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. -4000 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. The service sector0% is the main driver of growth, expected to grow by 0.0% 8.4 percent in 2018/19. A slow recovery in tourism related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail trade. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2018/19, on the back of strong manufacturing Source: Ministrygrowth offsetting slower growth in construction. Despite seasonal floods and volatile demand, of Commerce Source: CSO agriculture output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in production and export destinations. The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite The trade 2017/18 balance and 2018/19. (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned improved to deficit reforms such as intheQ3 2018/19 change in the as exports fiscal declined year. (percent and imports rose . OthersThe Q3 2018/19 decline in exports was share of driven budgeted by capital industrial expenditure ) finished products and agricultural products, but & Transport partly offset by rising mineral exports. Imports increased Communication (qoq) in Q3 Total Capital Expenditure2018/19 due Real Estate to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, products, Education, indicating Agriculture strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing 150% of industrial raw materials supported the robust Energy Grand Total sector. Approved Foreign Direct Investment improved Construction growth in the manufacturing in 2018/19 compared to 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. 10,000 100% Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 percent to 10.4 percent in August. The electricity price in June to 10.9 percent (yoy) in July before easing 50% 5,000 increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 11 Resilience amidst risk Myanmar Economic Monitor Myanmar: Macroeconomic Developments Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s Both the headline PMI and the employment index economy is expected tosummary Executive grow at 6.3 percent in 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. (Percent) remained above 50, signaling increases in manufacturing output and employment. (Index) Services Industry Agriculture 8% Summary GDP Production (Constant price 2015-16) Future output 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% Myanmar’s 6% economy continues to show resilience Expansion despite the global slowdown and domestic uncertainties. Its economy is estimated to have grown at 6.3 percent in 2018/191, marginally higher than 6.2 3.2% percent 4% in 2017/18, supported by better performance in the manufacturing and services sectors. Macroeconomic volatility has increased since the June 2019 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation Employment 2% 2.4% reaching double digits in July 2019. Economic growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent in 2019/20, helped by Contraction growing investment in the transport and telecommunication 0.8% PMI Headline sectors and government’s planned infrastructure 0% before(New spending2016/17 the 2020 (New Risks elections. 2017/18 to the 2018/19E economic outlook are tilted to the downside due to slowing (New Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr- Apr- Jan-18 Jan-19 18 19 Base Year) Base Year) Base Year) global and regional growth, and continued uncertainty about investor perceptions triggered by the Rakhine Source: MoPFI, Planning Department. crisis and the pace of reforms prior to the 2020 general Source: IHS Markit and Nikkei elections, although the pace has thus far been strong. The trade balance improved in Q2 2018/19 but Domestic inflationary pressures have increased, with returned to deficit in Q3 2018/19 as exports declined headline inflation rising to double digits in July 2019. and imports rose. (US$ million) (Index) Recent developments Exports (US$ million) Imports (US$ million) CPI Non Food Trade balance CPI Food 15% 40.0% Global growth will be weaker than expected in 2019. The global economic growth rate is estimated to have CPI Headline 6000 slowed to 2.4 percent in 2019 from 3.0 percent in 2018, reflecting a broad-based weakness in advanced Core inflation 4000 30.0% economies and major emerging market and developing economies. 10% Modest declines are forecasted for global Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 2000 commodity 0 prices. Growth in the East Asia and Pacific region is projected to slow from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 20.0% 5.8 percent -2000 on average over the two years 2019-20, and to 5%ease further to 5.6 percent by 2021. -4000 10.0% Using 2015/16 as a new GDP base year, Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in -6000 2018/19 from 6.2 percent in 2017/18. The service sector0% is the main driver of growth, expected to grow by 0.0% 8.4 percent in 2018/19. A slow recovery in tourism related services is offset by continued growth in wholesale Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jan-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 and retail trade. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2018/19, on the back of strong manufacturing Source: Ministrygrowth offsetting slower growth in construction. Despite seasonal floods and volatile demand, of Commerce Source: CSO agriculture output growth is projected to be stable at 1.6 percent in 2018/19, with greater diversification in production and export destinations. The total value of approved FDI increased between The continued under-execution is occurring despite The trade 2017/18 balance and 2018/19. (US$ million)in Q2 2018/19 but returned improved to deficit reforms such as intheQ3 2018/19 change in the as exports fiscal declined year. (percent and imports rose . OthersThe Q3 2018/19 decline in exports was share of driven budgeted by capital industrial expenditure ) finished products and agricultural products, but & Transport partly offset by rising mineral exports. Imports increased Communication (qoq) in Q3 Total Capital Expenditure2018/19 due Real Estate to the increase in imports Oil and Gas of consumer goods, industrial raw materials and investment Health, products, Education, indicating Agriculture strengthening 15,000 domestic aggregate demand. Growth in imports Manufacturing 150% of industrial raw materials supported the robust Energy Grand Total sector. Approved Foreign Direct Investment improved Construction growth in the manufacturing in 2018/19 compared to 2017/18. Singapore remained the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, followed by China. 10,000 100% Domestic inflationary pressures have increased. Headline inflation increased to double digits in July 2019, largely due to the confluence of supply factors and the recent electricity price increase. Inflation rose from 9.5 percent to 10.4 percent in August. The electricity price in June to 10.9 percent (yoy) in July before easing 50% 5,000 increase pushed the non-food CPI sub-index up by 31.2 percent (yoy) and core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices), rose to 14.1 percent from an average of 6.4 percent in the first nine months of 2018/19. 0 0% 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 1 Source: DICA Source: MOPFI; World Bank staff calculations Myanmar’s fiscal year is from October to September. For instance, FY18/19 is October 2018 to September 2019. December 2019 THE WORLD BANK 11 14 12 MYANMAR ECONOMIC MONITOR | Dec 2019