For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects December 2, 2016 Taking Stock U.S. nonfarm payrolls picked up in November, and Q3 GDP growth was revised upward. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in November, broadly in line with expectations, following a downwardly revised gain of 142,000 in October. The unemployment rate fell from 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent, the lowest rate since 2007. The labor participation rate ticked down to 62.7 percent from October’s 62.8 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 2.5 p ercent (y/y), 0.3 percent less than in October. Separately, the second estimate of U.S. Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.2 percent (q/q, saar), surpassing expectations and above the earlier estimate of 2.9 percent; this mainly reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and residential investment. In Q2, GDP grew by 1.4 percent (Figure 1). Meanwhile, both the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index and the Markit U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose more than expected in November, suggesting the U.S. economy continued to strengthen in Q4. Euro Area manufacturing PMI edged up in November, inflation picked up, and the unemployment rate fell. The Euro Area’s manufacturing PMI rose from 53.5 in October to 53.7 in November, its best reading since 2014, as the weak euro helped boost exports (a reading above 50 signals expansion). Headline inflation picked up from 0.5 percent (y/y) in October to 0.6 percent in November, its highest level since April 2014, reflecting rising costs of services and energy. However, core inflation remained at 0.8 percent for the fourth consecutive month (Figure 2). Meanwhile, the Euro Area’s unemployment rate edged further down to 9.8 percent in October, falling to single digits for the first time since 2009. Japan’s manufacturing sector remained solid in November. The Japanese manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in November, little-changed from October’s 51.4, signaling a continuing improvement in manufacturing conditions. Manufacturing production rose at a slightly slower pace but remained solid, driven by a strong increase in total new orders. th OPEC reached a deal to cut production . On November 30 , the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pledged to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d), for six month starting in January 2017. Other major non- OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to participate in the cut by lowering their production by 600,000 b/d. The total proposed cut would amount to nearly 2 percent of global production, exceeding market expectations. The agreement led to a surge in Brent oil prices to above US$50 per barrel. Zimbabwe launched a parallel currency to ease a cash shortage. On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe began issuing a parallel currency, called bank notes, in a bid to ease a severe cash shortage in the country. The notes have an official exchange rate of 1-1 with the U.S. dollar, one of the foreign currencies used in the country since it abandoned its own currency in 2009. Figure 1 U.S. GDP growth strengthened in Q3 2016. Figure 2 Euro Area headline inflation picked up in November, while core inflation remained unchanged. U.S. GDP growth Euro Area inflation rate Percent, q/q, saar Percent, year-on-year 1.2 headline inflation core inflation 5.0 0.8 3.0 0.4 1.0 0 -1.0 -0.4 -3.0 -0.8 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 327 | December 2, 2016 Weekly Insight: How Have Key Financial Variables Evolved Since the Introduction of Negative Interest Rate Policies? In countries that have introduced negative interest rate policies (NIRP), money market rates and government bond yields fell below zero, and lending and deposit rates decreased. Inflation expectations declined, and currencies depreciated in trade-weighted terms. In countries that have introduced NIRP, money market interest rates have declined below zero. The fall in bank wholesale funding costs has helped to lower lending rates, but to varying degrees across countries (Figure 3). Movements in deposit rates varied. Banks have generally been reluctant to pass on negative rates to retail depositors, as these remain a key source of financing. Banks that rely more heavily on retail deposits for funding have been less able to reduce lending rates to corporations and households and have, in some cases, increased fees to compensate for lower margins. In most cases, however, lending rates declined under NIRP, especially in countries with greater competition among banks. The decline in rates on new loans has been particularly notable in the euro area, although other policy initiatives, including additional quantitative easing (QE) measures, make it difficult to isolate the specific contribution of NIRP. NIRP have generally been associated with negative yields on government bonds and falling inflation expectations. In the economies where NIRP have been implemented, around 40 percent of sovereign bonds with maturities between one and three years were trading at negative yields in June 2016. Both Germany and Japan issued 10-year sovereign bonds yielding negative returns. The impact of NIRP on bond yields appears to reflect primarily a downward shift in expectations about the future path of policy rates. Meanwhile, inflation projections and expectations have continued to decline in most NIRP economies. The downgrades in inflation projections reflected to a large extent the impact of declining oil and other commodity prices since mid-2014. However, long-term market inflation expectations have also edged down, reflecting changing views of market participants about the ability of central banks to generate inflation. The currencies of countries implementing NIRP depreciated against the U.S. dollar and to a lesser extent in trade- weighted terms. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are notable exceptions to this trend, as both currencies strengthened (Figure 4). The appreciation of the Japanese yen appeared to be mostly driven by capital inflows due to flight to safety. In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling vis -à-vis the euro led to the appreciation of the Swiss franc, despite a cut in the policy rate. Figure 3 Under NIRP, bond yields, lending and deposit rates have Figure 4 The currencies of NIRP economies have depreciated in declined, but to varing degrees across countries. effective terms, with the exception of the yen and Swiss franc. Changes in key financial variables Nominal effective exchange rates Percent Deposit (HH) Lending (HH) Percent Change since June 2014 2-year bond yields Money market rate Change since first NIRP announcement 0 15 10 5 -0.5 0 -5 -1 -10 Denmark Euro Area Switzerland Sweden Japan Hungary Switzerland Sweden Denmark Euro Area Japan Hungary Sources: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Statistics Sweden, Sources: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Statistics Sweden, Swiss National Bank, Danmarks Nationalbank, Central Bank of Hungary, Swiss National Bank, Danmarks Nationalbank, Central Bank of Hungary, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, World Bank. Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, World Bank. Notes: HH denotes households. Money market rates are EONIA (Euro Notes: A decline in the exchange rate (negative value) indicates Over Night Index Average) for Euro Area, STIBOR (Stockholm Interbank depreciation. NIRP announcements are June 2014 for Euro Area, Offered Rate) for Sweden, BUBOR (Budapest Inter-Bank Offer Rate) for February 2015 for Sweden, December 2014 for Switzerland, September Hungary, SARON (Swiss Average Rate Overnight) for Switzerland, CITA 2014 for Denmark, January 2016 for Japan, and March 2016 for (Copenhagen Interbank Tomorrow/Next Average) for Denmark, Hungary. Last observation is June 2016. uncollateralized overnight rate for Japan. Last observation is July 2016. Produced by DECPG. Number 327 | December 2, 2016 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 25 November - Thu, 01 December 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 02 December - Thu, 08 December 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous UK 11/25/16 GDP Q3 2.3 2.3 2.1 Hungary 12/6/16 GDP Q3 1.8 France 11/29/16 GDP Q3 1.1 1.4 1.3 Bulgaria 12/6/16 GDP Q3 3.0 United States 11/29/16 GDP Q3 1.6 3.0 1.3 South Africa 12/6/16 GDP Q3 0.6 Belgium 11/30/16 GDP Q2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Eurozone 12/6/16 GDP Q2 1.6 Italy 12/1/16 GDP Q3 1.0 0.9 0.8 Australia 12/6/16 GDP Q3 3.3 South Korea 12/1/16 GDP Q3 2.6 2.7 3.3 Japan 12/7/16 GDP Q3 2.2 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 1.9 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.8 - Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 2.1 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.7 0.2 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 4.6 2.3 4.3 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.4 - Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 1.2 0.7 1.6 0.1 -1.4 0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.5 1.9 1.8 1.0 -0.1 - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 6.0 3.0 5.3 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.3 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 7.7 3.4 7.1 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.5 5.5 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.9 4.3 3.6 5.2 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 2.0 - Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 4.3 1.2 0.3 -4.0 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 -0.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -6.6 -2.9 0.6 -1.1 -4.5 -4.3 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 -3.6 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 -2.2 - Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 9.7 2.2 -3.4 - 2.2 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 - - - South Asia 2.6 4.2 -7.2 4.6 5.5 -6.9 0.9 0.2 3.4 2.5 -0.4 1.6 3.1 -2.0 -1.7 0.2 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 0.1 -1.3 1.5 8.3 -6.1 0.2 -0.8 1.5 -1.3 2.4 4.1 4.3 1.4 0.0 -0.1 - Inflation, sa 2 World 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.6 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.4 Other EMDE 2.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.4 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.3 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.6 1.8 South Asia 6.8 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.8 4.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.1 6.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.6 -5.8 -12.1 14.7 -1.3 -10.1 -11.9 -9.0 -3.5 -2.6 -2.9 -3.8 -6.6 2.8 -0.9 - Advanced Economies 1.2 -11.3 -6.7 -5.2 15.5 -2.0 -10.0 -9.3 -4.0 -3.5 -0.3 -0.6 -2.2 -5.5 5.0 0.8 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.8 -12.0 -4.4 -22.6 13.1 0.0 -10.3 -16.0 -16.3 -3.7 -6.6 -6.6 -6.2 -8.3 -0.9 -3.7 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.6 -24.2 -11.9 -24.5 19.0 4.8 -20.9 -24.6 -13.4 -15.3 -13.3 -10.6 -11.6 -13.5 0.1 0.3 - Other EMDE 4.9 -3.8 -0.2 -20.2 11.1 -1.6 -3.9 -11.2 -17.2 4.5 -2.3 -3.8 -2.4 -5.1 -0.5 -4.6 -4.1 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 -0.6 -24.0 12.4 -2.1 -4.2 -13.2 -20.5 6.1 -3.7 -5.1 -4.4 -6.1 -1.0 -6.4 -4.8 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -8.1 -20.2 21.5 0.4 -14.7 -22.1 -13.0 -13.1 -8.2 -10.4 -3.9 -8.6 1.5 -0.9 - Latin America and Caribbean -1.0 -12.0 -8.3 -6.9 5.2 6.1 -11.6 -11.6 -4.1 -9.2 -5.4 -2.1 -8.1 -7.5 2.2 2.1 -6.2 Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -7.6 - - - -22.1 -23.2 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.8 14.6 5.7 4.1 -10.7 -5.3 -3.0 4.2 -0.3 1.1 -0.3 5.2 -3.9 5.9 6.8 - Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5 -28.8 -18.1 -27.8 - - -28.3 -27.5 -22.9 -19.7 -13.4 - - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -6.2 -14.1 10.2 -3.3 -11.2 -11.7 -5.3 -7.5 -6.0 -2.4 -5.3 -10.0 1.3 -2.3 - Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -6.3 -9.5 8.3 -5.1 -11.2 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.0 -1.9 -4.7 -8.7 1.0 -2.3 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -6.0 -21.4 14.2 0.5 -11.1 -15.1 -9.8 -8.8 -9.2 -3.2 -5.9 -12.1 2.3 -1.9 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.3 -14.9 -11.4 -18.4 -0.2 -0.3 -17.2 -18.1 -15.3 -13.7 -13.7 -9.2 -8.4 -15.9 -1.4 -6.3 - Other EMDE 0.8 -11.5 -2.9 -24.3 19.7 0.8 -7.5 -13.3 -6.9 -6.4 -7.6 -0.8 -5.4 -11.4 3.7 -0.6 -0.3 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -0.6 -28.8 24.5 3.8 -8.4 -16.7 -11.1 -5.3 -8.2 0.8 -6.5 -10.9 5.5 -0.4 0.5 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -9.5 3.7 12.0 -5.5 -18.0 -14.8 -5.0 -3.6 -3.1 -1.4 1.1 -10.2 8.3 1.6 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -12.4 -17.1 3.8 2.9 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -10.0 -6.3 -8.9 -16.0 1.3 -3.2 -8.7 Middle East and North Africa 2.9 -6.3 -4.5 - - - -10.1 -13.0 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -13.6 -29.1 2.3 11.4 -3.3 -6.9 -3.5 -18.8 -18.7 -9.3 -7.0 -14.7 -9.6 -0.8 6.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.3 -8.7 - - - -11.5 -18.8 - - - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 -1.0 Advanced Economies 0.1 0.6 -1.1 3.7 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.6 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.1 -9.9 -3.6 -1.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -6.9 -11.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 - 0.0 -1.6 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.4 0.5 - - - Other EMDE 0.6 -9.1 -4.4 -1.2 0.7 -0.5 -2.6 -2.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.2 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -11.3 -4.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -2.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -1.3 Europe and Central Asia -16.7 -6.3 -3.7 4.0 2.8 1.1 -1.6 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -1.1 Latin America and Caribbean 0.1 -5.3 -1.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 Middle East and North Africa -2.7 -16.9 -3.7 -3.4 - - -0.7 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 - - - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.7 1.3 1.0 2.0 3.1 0.8 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.4 -1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -9.6 -11.9 -0.1 -2.1 - - -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 0.4 -1.6 - - - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG. Number 327 | December 2, 2016 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.79 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.93 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.30 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.18 1.92 1.75 1.56 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.74 2.30 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.56 0.32 0.12 -0.07 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.22 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 431 478 419 372 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 357 389 Asia 206 232 245 264 227 197 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 192 199 Europe 287 348 311 339 305 282 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 274 296 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 577 645 551 477 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 453 512 Middle East 388 471 506 555 538 508 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 487 467 Africa 323 449 509 626 548 461 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 441 454 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 399 395 399 418 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 413 412 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1663 1638 1653 1726 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1697 1709 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 2044 2051 2099 2168 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 2191 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1474 1352 1339 1388 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1377 1381 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 18817 16555 15576 16450 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 17050 18403 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 794 821 834 903 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 908 858 EM Asia 457 404 404 404 407 448 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 444 427 EM Europe 297 244 244 272 265 273 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 274 273 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 211 230 225 233 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 232 231 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1830 2121 2269 2381 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2608 2232 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.94 Japan 105.89 121.00 121.41 115.23 107.96 102.36 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 103.72 112.35 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.25 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.18 3.39 China 6.16 6.29 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.67 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.74 6.91 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.88 8.04 8.87 8.87 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 9.25 17.89 India 61.03 64.14 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.94 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.73 68.66 Russia 38.58 61.34 66.17 74.84 65.84 64.61 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.57 65.31 South Africa 10.85 12.77 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.07 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.92 13.90 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.4 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 119.7 125.1 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Energy 2 118 65 54 43 56 57 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 64 68 Non-energy 2 97 82 78 76 81 82 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 81 2 Agriculture 103 89 86 85 91 91 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 89 89 2 Metals and minerals 88 68 60 59 62 65 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 65 71 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 42 33 45 45 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 45 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1107 1181 1260 1334 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1266 1224 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 627 363 613 736 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 870 1202 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG. Number 327 | December 2, 2016