toward sustainable development • 2007 Annual Review 63229 M AT T E R S AT T H E W O R L D B A N K Climate Change and Adaptation ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT E nvironmental sustainabilty is fundamental to sustainable development. Launched in 2007, this new series covers current and emerging issues in order to promote debate and broaden the understanding of environmental challenges as integral to equitable and sustained eco- nomic growth. Drawing on analysis and practical experience from across the World Bank and client countries, the books in this series will be central to the implementation of the World Bank’s Environment Strategy and relevant to the development community, policy makers, and academia. pStrategic Environmental Assessment for Policies — An Instrument for Good Governance Environmentally and socially sustainable policies are essential for good governance. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the key tool for integrating environmental considerations into policies, programs, and plans. This edited book focuses on SEA applied to policies. Through les- sons learned from previous use of SEA on policies, it draws lessons on the strengths and weaknesses of current SEA methodology. It then goes on to analyze how policies are formulated and implemented and proposes a new conceptual framework for conducting SEA of policies that poten- tially could be more useful in influencing decision makers to integrate ISBN: 978-0-8213-6762-9 environmental sustainability considerations into policy formulation and implementation. Poverty and the Environment — Understanding Linkages at the Household Level Drawing upon recent analytical work prepared inside and outside the World Bank, this report identifies key lessons concerning the linkages between poverty and the environment. With a focus on the contribution of environmental resources to household welfare, the analysis increases our understanding of how specific reforms and interventions can have an impact on the health and livelihoods of poor people. To order, go to www.worldbank.org/publications, or by phone: +1-703-661-1580 or 800-645-7247 ISBN: 978-0-8213-7223-4 L E T T E R F R O M K AT H E R I N E S I E R R A V I C E P R E S I D E N T, S U S TA I N A B L E D E V E LO PM E N T T his edition of Environment Matters arrives just as the international community embarks on a two-year process to secure a new global framework to limit the amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) entering the atmosphere and devise ways to help developing countries adapt to and prepare themselves for the effects of climate change. At the World Bank, we believe that climate change—and developing countries’ adaptation to it—is a critical challenge of our time that must be integrated into core development strategies. The past year has been rich in prominent, authoritative, but increasingly alarming reports, each pointing to the unequivocal link between human activity and global warming. Even if a new emissions control frame- work is put in place after 2012, and even if efforts to reduce GHG emissions are successful, we are already facing some degree of global warming and climate change—and therefore some degree of disruption. Changes in temperatures and weather patterns will affect the frequency and severity of rainfall, droughts, floods, access to water, flood protection, health, and the use of land. These impacts will not be evenly dis- tributed. The poorest countries and people, those least responsible for climate change and least able to cope with it, will suffer earliest and most due to their geographical location, low incomes, and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. This is why building up resilience to increasing climate variability is the most significant climate challenge facing many developing countries. But we believe that adaptation, while necessary in and of itself, can also serve to meet the development objectives of countries. Many appropriate adaptive measures are consistent with good development practice. They can improve the local environment, increase resilience to current and future climate variability and to natural disasters, and ease the dissemination of innovative technologies. They can also reduce resource scarcity within specific social groups or regions—thereby addressing some of the principal causes of social unrest and violent strife. In other words, climate action is development action. While much of the adaptation effort will occur autonomously—as individuals, households, and businesses respond to the changing climate—or through government-led investments, the international community can provide the policies, knowledge, infrastructure, and markets to make it happen in the most cost-effective way. This implies increased international cooperation among all actors concerned with development. The World Bank has a role to play and we intend to do so. This issue of Environment Matters lays out some of the chal- lenges we face and offers some of the proposals for progress that we are considering. Anyone interested in adaptation to climate change will find a wealth of material in these pages. Katherine Sierra © 2008 The International Bank for W elcome to Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 All rights reserved. Environment Matters is a magazine of the World Bank Group. You may also find the magazine on the Bank’s website — http:// www.worldbank.org/environmentmatters matters . . . Sustainable Development Network T Vice President his year’s theme on climate change and adaptation is timely. In the last two years, several major Katherine Sierra new studies have been released, including the Stern Review in 2006 and the latest IPCC reports in Environment Director 2007. With these reports, the world community has become increasingly cognizant of the urgency James Warren Evans of this issue. Environment Matters is produced by the following World Bank Environment staff: At the World Bank Group, climate change and adaptation are under intense scrutiny. Currently, the various departments of the Bank are engaged in over 100 analytical, technical assistance, and knowledge products Technical Editors: Astrid Hillers and on this subject—setting the stage for the Bank’s Strategic Framework on Climate Change, which will be Fareeha Y. Iqbal presented later in 2008. Managing Editor: Jim Cantrell Story Editor: Robert T. Livernash Designer and Photo Editor: Jim Cantrell In their messages, Sustainable Development Vice President Kathy Sierra and Environment Department Associate Editor: Yawar Herekar Director James Warren Evans highlight some of this work and the challenges ahead. Special Contributors Outside Viewpoints span a range of stakeholders. Colin Chartres, of the International Water Management Steve Gorman Institute in Sri Lanka, describes challenges to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Ian Roy Noble Kseniya Lvovsky and other research institutions. Atiq Rahman, of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, presents the Patricia Bliss-Guest views of a major NGO in Bangladesh. Maarten van Aalst, of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, Seraphine Marie Haeussling links the disaster preparedness and development agendas. Luis Mejia, of the National Institute of Health Eri Tsutsui in Colombia, emphasizes the need for urgent action on a range of waterborne diseases. Linda Starke Jeffrey Lecksell Feature articles highlight a number of key adaptation challenges and opportunities. The Bank’s Ian Noble discusses what we know about climate change, what we will never know, and how to plan and deal with uncertainty. Muthukumara Mani assesses various estimates of the costs of adaptation and financing options. A team from the SDV anchor and the Tyndall Center collaborated to discuss a range of social dimensions of vulnerability and resilience to climate change. Finally, several special features describe some innovative thinking in the Bank’s adaptation work in the areas of water security, biodiversity, and index-based risk insurance. Notes: All $ = U.S. dollars except where noted. Regional reviews—the core of the magazine, as in all previous years—describe the issues and actions All tons = metric tons. highlighted by the different regions. These articles are a reflection of the different impacts of climate change IBRD maps numbered 31562 through on regions, subregions, and even within countries. 31567 contained in the Regional section of the magazine were produced by the Map Design Unit of the World Bank. The bound- In last year’s Environment Matters reader survey, many readers requested more individual case studies and aries, colors, denominations, and any other examples of best practice, as well as more access to graphs and sources of information. In response, we are information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, also glad to present a consolidated assessment by various World Bank departments of the challenges of any judgment on the legal status of any ter- climate change with the simultaneous launch of WBI’s Development Outreach: Special Report on Climate ritory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The countries identified by Change, Low Carbon Economies, and Resilient Societies. This publication presents client case studies in name on these maps are countries to which response to climate change. Both magazines provide a complementary view of current experiences within the Bank provides development assistance in the form of loans or advisory services, and outside the Bank. and for which the Bank has a designated official responsible for the country. Astrid Hillers Senior Environmental Specialist Environment Department COVER IMAGES You Young girl: © CORBIS Printed with soy ink. Man with bicycle: © CORBIS Ma CIRCULAR IMAGES FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: C Digging for water, Kenya: Frank Sperling, World Bank D Mountains, Nepal: Will Davies World Bank Publications Information: 202-473-1155 Crane, Ethiopia: Will Davies General Inquiries: 202-473-3641 Department Fax: 202-477-0565 Rain forest butterfly, Sumatra: Kathy MacKinnon, World Bank Web address: www.worldbank.org/environment Corn, Kenya: Frank Sperling, World Bank The World Bank Group Dear Readers: Please help us maintain an updated subscriber database by sending 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 your current email address to ematters@worldbank.org. We will use it to notify you electronically about future issues and to keep you informed about the new on-line data on our website. Thank you! Contents Annual Review • 2007 A Letter from SDN Vice President Katherine Sierra 1 Director’s Overview 4 Viewpoints Climate Change Adaptation for Agriculture 6 and Agro-Ecosystems IWMI’s Colin Chartres focuses on adaptation strategies to manage the impacts of climate change on water availability, agriculture, and the environment. Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction 8 Disaster management and climate change adaptation cannot be tackled by stand-alone projects or by specific agencies; instead they require an integrated approach as part and parcel of regular develop- ment planning, writes Maarten van Aalst. Advancing Climate Change Adaptation through 10 Greater Collective Actions Insuring Against Risks 30 Vulnerable communities need more planned and informed adapta- Several climate-related hazard insurance schemes are under way that tion strategies to protect their lives, livelihoods, and well-being from could provide models to help developing countries recover from the climatic disasters, according to Atiq Rahman. adverse impacts of climate change. Impacts on Health 12 Regional Articles Experience in Colombia suggests that several of the expected Reviews of work in the Bank’s six Regions focus on initiatives to impacts of climate change will have direct and indirect impacts on reduce the risks posed by climate change. human health. Africa — Sub-Saharan 32 Feature Articles East Asia and the Pacific 36 Europe and Central Asia 40 The Changing Climate—What We Know, What 14 Latin America and the Caribbean 44 We Will Never Know, and What We Are Learning Middle East and North Africa 48 Ian Noble sums up the state of certainty and uncertainty about South Asia 52 climate change and its impact on the development agenda. Institutional Articles Beyond the Sea Walls—Financing 18 Adaptation to Climate Change at the International 56 Adaptation Needs in Developing Countries Finance Corporation In coping with climate change, developing countries need to build IFC is working to better identify the risks and potential adaptive policy and economic incentives that encourage adaptation. responses from the perspective of private investment, writes Alan Miller. Biodiversity and Adaptation—Challenges 22 and Opportunities Climate Change Research by Development Economics 58 Biodiversity conservation can play an important, cost-effective, and The Bank’s DEC Group is conducting a broad array of studies on efficient role in reducing vulnerability to climate change, writes the impact of climate change and adaptation options, writes Ariel Kathy MacKinnon. Dinar. Adapting to Climate Change—Understanding 24 Capacity Development 62 the Social Dimensions of Vulnerability and Resilience At the World Bank Institute, Habiba Gitay writes that capacity How will societies and communities organize themselves to cope development has to help client countries develop their own context- with risks and manage the social changes associated with climate specific responses to climate change impacts within their develop- change? ment and poverty reduction goals. Water Security—An Adaptation Imperative 28 News Updates 64 Claudia Sadoff and David Grey discuss how climate change will further increase the already considerable complexity and cost of water security in many of the world’s poorest nations. Publications (inside and back covers) Climate Change is a Development Issue Toward Climate-Resilient Development Frank Sperling D I R E C TOR ’S O V E R V I E W — JAMES WARREN EVANS ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT owe it to those in developing countries achieving the Millennium Development Climate change is a development, economic, and investment challenge. It offers an to take actions that will do two things Goals. On the other hand, if climate risk opportunity for economic and social as soon and as effectively as possible: is not fully integrated into core develop- transformation that can lead to an inclusive mitigate the increase in greenhouse gas ment strategies and investment design, and sustainable globalization. That is why emissions and help developing countries poverty reduction goals will be jeop- addressing climate change is a critical pillar of adapt to the already inevitable effects of ardized. The recent replenishment of the development agenda. climate change. IDA15 was increased by 42 percent to — Robert Zoellick $14 billion per year. This was partly in World Bank Group President, response to the Bank’s submission that at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia December 2007 Stepping Up Action for climate change will increase the resourc- es needed to maintain levels of benefits Lasting Change from IDA by $0.6 billion to $1.9 bil- W hen Robert Zoellick in Bali Realizing the urgency of both addressing lion per year. Comprehensive climate described climate change climate change while assuring increased risk management in IDA projects will as “a critical pillar of the energy access to poor countries, the likely be the largest source of funding development agenda,” he Bank Group formulated the Clean for adaptation in least developed coun- was setting the vision for Energy Investment Framework and tries in the immediate future. our emerging strategy on Action Plan in 2006/2007. This Frame- climate change Even though we have work focuses on three areas of our work: We still have a lot to learn about fully been active in this area for some time integrating adaptation into national now, there will be a significant step-up 1. Energy for growth, with a particular development planning. We need to in our work on climate change in the emphasis on access to energy in accelerate our collaborative efforts with months and years ahead, given its cru- Sub-Saharan Africa; other multilateral development banks, cial importance to the poorest people in 2. The transition to a low-carbon GEF, and other development partners to the world’s poorest countries. development trajectory; and assist immediately vulnerable countries 3. Adaptation to the effects of climate in putting this challenge into practice. Sustainable Development Vice President change. Kathy Sierra, in her message in Environ- During the financial year ending in ment Matters, noted that it is the poor We realize that scaling up our actions July 2007, the World Bank made real who will suffer the earliest and the most in these areas will require significant progress in mainstreaming climate from climate change. As the world’s additional financial resources and that vulnerability and risk management premier development organization, we these resources must not compete with into country dialogue and into work- 4 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Overview cation, and on-the-ground adaptation activities. In the Indian State of Andhra Challenges Ahead Pradesh, for example, a promising pilot While this issue of Environment Matters project aims to promote comprehensive places its emphasis on adaptation to cli- drought resilience through innovative mate change, adaptation and mitigation techniques and management approaches are integrally linked. Future adaptation in agriculture, natural resource manage- costs will dramatically increase if effec- tive mitigation measures are not taken ment, and the strengthening of institu- on a global scale. tions. In Malawi, mainstreaming disaster and climate risk management into coun- Opportunities arise from mitiga- try planning processes, strengthening tion–adaptation synergies. In Bali, for meteorological services, and piloting example, the World Bank, with strong index insurance schemes help to achieve support from donor countries and The greater disaster preparedness and, there- Nature Conservancy, was proud to ing with client countries. We did this fore, decrease vulnerability. launch the new Forest Carbon Partner- through a range of instruments that: ship Facility. We were also pleased to Many countries are already facing receive assistance from the UN Perma- • Deepened analytical work. Much decreases in available surface water. In nent Forum on Indigenous People in better understanding of coun- Morocco, the Bank is working with designing a carbon fund that will pilot try-specific adaptation challenges, farmers and the government to design reduced emissions from deforestation supported by strong analytical work ways to make irrigation more efficient and forest degradation, while at the has contributed to up-streaming and reliable while taking account of same time improving (a) the livelihoods vulnerability to climate change in water’s limited availability. Overall, of forest communities, (b) forest ecosys- country and sector development tem services, and (c) forest biodiversity. creating greater water security is an plans. GEF and donor support has important focus of the Bank’s support Furthermore, climate change will been effectively leveraged to scale up to client countries. provide opportunities to revisit cur- this analytical work. rent practices. With the provision of • Achieved greater inclusion of adapta- Impacts of climate change on biodiver- additional resources, climate change, as tion in Country Assistance Strategies sity and ecosystem services (terrestrial discussed throughout this publication, (CASs). In FY07, 32 percent of and marine) is a major concern. Ama- can be a stimulus to assist the transition CASs acknowledged concerns about zon dieback, losses of forests from land to improved practices in land man- climate impacts on water resources, conversion, coral bleaching, the decline agement, energy production, coastal agriculture, land, disasters, the and shift of fish stocks, and the increased protection, and so on, especially in the spread of vector-borne diseases, and invasion of non-native species are of poorest countries. infrastructure sustainability. concern in many areas, especially in • Launched a “Screening Tool” to help fragile tropical and subtropical ecosys- The Bank Group is currently develop- tems. There are activities in the Carib- ing a Strategic Framework for Climate identify climate risks. This is being bean, the Andes region, and Mexico to Change, to be presented to the Devel- expanded into a comprehensive protect and sustainably manage ecosys- opment Committee at the Annual climate data portal to facilitate access tems in the face of climate change. Meetings in October 2008. The Bank is to core climate information. also committed to reducing the carbon • Applied innovative climate risk Climate change also has a real impact footprint of its own operations through insurance pilots on a project level. on health, social development, and pov- the use of energy efficiency measures, • Worked with the Global Facility for erty reduction outcomes—including an renewable energy, and carbon offsets. Disaster Risk Reduction and Recov- increased risk of conflicts and migration Working with its partners, clients, and ery to integrate climate change. through pressure on land and water all sectors of society to turn the challenge resources. A collaborative effort by envi- of climate change into an opportunity The World Bank has started to gain ronment, social, and poverty specialists for development leading to an inclu- important experience in climate risk in the Bank is under way to identify sive and sustainable globalization is the assessment, forecasting and communi- options to minimize these impacts. exciting and challenging task ahead. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 5 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FOR AGRICULTURE AND AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS Colin Chartres The Critical Role of Water Director General CGIAR International Water Management Institute Sri Lanka I t has been said that climate change mitigation is about gases and variability in supply. Recently, provision of supply to those without that adaptation is about water. In a world where 70 percent of clean water and sanitation was recognized as a key Millennium water withdrawals are used for agriculture, it is important that we Development Goal. In some countries, particularly in Africa and develop adaptation strategies to manage the impacts of climate South America, lack of finance—termed economic water scarcity—has change on water availability, agriculture, and the environment. been the key impediment to the expansion of access to clean water Adapting to changes in water availability and seasonal distribu- and adequate sanitation. In many countries in the Middle East and tion is possible, but we need to know the direction and magnitude Asia (for example, China and India), however, the new challenge is of these potential changes and their degree of certainty. Given the how to manage growing demand for water in the face of supplies likelihood of increasing water scarcity and variability, especially in the that are effectively fully allocated or utilized. This can be described as world’s poorest countries, we have to ask whether we are saddled with physical water scarcity. Increasing physical water scarcity means that outdated 20th century paradigms on how we manage water supplies real trade-offs among irrigation, other beneficial water uses, and the that are fit for agricultural production, as well as domestic, industrial, environment are inevitable and will require new sets of biophysical and environmental uses. and socioeconomic tools to determine the most appropriate strategies. Climate change will undoubtedly put water users in many countries Here are the relevant facts: (a) population is expected to increase by under more pressure. 2 billion in the next 20 years; (b) climate change, particularly in the tropics/subtropics, where most of the poor live, is likely to impact both As the new Director General of the International Water Management total rainfall and seasonal distribution; (c) burgeoning urbanization Institute (IWMI), my job is to focus IWMI’s limited resources on and concomitant demand for water means productive land will be lost assisting the poor in improving and retaining access to diminishing to degradation and other nonagricultural uses; (d) increasing acreage water supplies, as well as improving the productivity of their share of will be devoted to plants grown for biofuel production; and (e) there the resource. The good news is that a recent comprehensive assessment will be increasing demands for environmental water for wetlands and of water management in agriculture (Molden 2007), prepared with environmental flows that support valuable ecosystem services. All of input from over 700 scientists, provides us with some clear directions these trends are going to put existing water, land, and agricultural as to what has to be done if the challenges of coping with competi- resources under significant pressure. tion for reducing water supplies are to be met in a future of climate change and population growth. The assessment asks a key question: A key feature of future water management will involve adaptation “Is there enough land, water, and human capacity to produce food to changing conditions associated with competing demand and for a growing population over the next 50 years?” It concludes that 6 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 while it may be possible to produce the food, it is probable that today’s climate variability and change, land use change, etc.), modeling how food production and environmental trends, if continued, will lead to these changes affect water availability, and analyzing what this means crises in many parts of the world. for water entitlement holders and their annual allocations. From there, it is possible to determine how these will impact food production, The assessment details seven policy actions that must be taken to urban and industrial supplies, and the environment. The challenge deal with the challenge (see Box, below). They indicate that we must is then to develop socially equitable means of sharing the diminished rethink the old paradigms about water in order to successfully manage supply between beneficial users and the environment. Policy reform, in adaptation to climate change and other risks to our water resources, order to address the complex inter-sectoral and compounding effects food production, and environment. of climate change, has to take such an evidence-based approach in order to be effective. If we are to adapt to climate change, we will need to (a) think creatively about water storage systems, including groundwater storage and reuse; I expect that the above model will apply in most countries. However, (b) improve basin management and water allocation processes; and (c) it requires the water management community to start to look at the develop drought response strategies, including early drought warning big picture and to be far more holistic and integrative than we have systems, crop insurance, changing land use and cropping patterns, and been in the past. It also requires donors and researchers to comple- increasing water productivity. All of these will have to be embraced by ment on-the-ground work with greater use of interdisciplinary teams policy makers, governance and institutional processes, water managers, to define the issues and develop strategic policy, institutional, and and water users. In the environmental area, adaptation will require governance reforms. A key issue will be identifying how the environ- improved understanding of ways in which agriculture and wetlands ment can be used to provide ecosystem services that are valued by can coexist, as well as better communication to communities and water users. It means looking at wastewater as a resource, as opposed politicians regarding the value of ecosystem services provided by the to something to jettison into the ocean. It means developing a better environment. understanding of how wetlands and other ecosystems provide clean water and food supply via ecosystem service functions. Above all, it The conclusions of the comprehensive assessment resonate with me, means using scientific, social, and economic evidence to guide the especially given that I have just spent two years helping the Australian reform process. government develop strategies to deal with the worst drought since European settlement. The lessons emerging from Australia are that The CGIAR is gearing up to these challenges via a new Climate individual projects aimed at fixing part of the system are often Change Challenge Program with a focus on diagnosing vulnerability useless, or even create new difficulties in the face of systemic natural of agricultural systems to climate change and development of adapta- resource changes. The approach has to be scientifically holistic and tion pathways for affected systems. This will be complemented at embrace profound reform. From a scientific perspective, this means IWMI and other centers by additional work on innovative scientific understanding the regional drivers of water availability (for example, approaches, including improved prediction of climate change impacts on water availability, better ways to retain and store water to supplement diminishing rainfall and shorter wet seasons, and the KEY POLICY ACTIONS FOR WATER development of more drought-resistant crops and improved biofuels. MANAGEMENT IN AGRICULTURE However, a critical need in many developing countries will continue 1. Change the way we think about water and agriculture to be for the CGIAR to assist agricultural and water management agencies to build scientific capacity and to implement policy and 2. Fight poverty by improving access to agricultural water and institutional reform to facilitate the adoption of improved responses to its use climate change threats. IWMI is somewhat daunted by the magnitude 3. Manage water to enhance ecosystem services of these challenges, but also excited at the prospect of tackling many of them in partnership with other agencies and national land and 4. Increase the productivity of water water managers across the globe. 5. Upgrade rainfed systems—a little water can go a long way 6. Reform the reform process—targeting state institutions References 7. Deal with trade-offs and making difficult choices. Molden, D., ed. 2007. Water For Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Source: Molden 2007. Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. London: Earthscan Publishing (www.earthscan.co.uk). ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER RISK Maarten van Aalst REDUCTION Associate Director and Lead Climate Specialist Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre C limate change is no longer a long-term environmental issue. unsound environmental practices, population growth, urbanization, The first impacts are already with us, and bound to get poverty, and economic shortsightedness. And there is the risk that worse. In terms of natural hazards, this includes increases in disasters themselves trap people in vicious circles: the most vulnerable heat waves, floods, droughts, and in the intensity of tropical become even more vulnerable to new disasters. cyclones, as well as higher sea levels. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people, are most affected. Climate change brings an additional challenge, and is likely already a factor in the increase in disasters. It aggravates the intensity and We are already witnessing an increase in the number of natural frequency of many hazards, but it also creates surprises, such as disasters, from around 200 annually in the period 1987–97 to about hazards occurring in succession, or in places where they had never been double that in the first seven years of the 21st century. This rise is experienced before. In terms of planning, past experience no longer caused almost entirely by an increase in weather-related disasters. guides what we can expect in the future. Those who depend on natural Floods, for instance, are not just occurring more often, but also damage resources for their livelihoods are hit worst. Many are also finding it greater areas than they did two decades ago. And these increases are harder to rely on seasonal climate patterns; for example, changes in the accompanied by a rapid increase in socioeconomic losses and in the timing and intensity of rainfall affect decisions about what and when number of people affected. to plant and harvest. One of the few assets of poor farmers, traditional knowledge about their environment, is no longer reliable. Mega-disasters also are occurring more often; examples include the European heat wave of 2003, which killed over 35,000 people; Hur- ricane Katrina in the United States, which caused over $125 billion Unfortunately, disaster impacts and the accompanying humanitarian in damage; and the massive flooding during the Asian monsoon of response have often been seen in isolation from broader development 2007. However, the statistics also show a particular increase in smaller patterns. Efforts to integrate disaster risk reduction into development disasters. These events do not make it onto the headlines, but do planning are only gradually capturing more attention. And something have tremendous impacts on lives and livelihoods, particularly of similar applies to climate change. Despite overwhelming evidence the poor. about its potential impacts on development and poverty reduction, climate change has long been restricted to the corner of environmental The disaster statistics primarily reflect a growing vulnerability to natu- issues, to be dealt with in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, ral hazards that are intimately tied to development patterns, notably and primarily by environment ministries. 8 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Studies of the extent to which climate risks are factored into develop- Innovative projects such as the Kiribati Adaptation Program, now in ment plans and projects (for example, Burton and van Aalst 1999; its pilot implementation phase, demonstrate such integrated climate van Aalst, Agrawala, and Moehner 2005) found that little attention risk management, ranging from national budgets and planning in all was paid to changes in risks, but also that little attention was paid to key ministries to consultation with local communities and NGOs. current climate-related hazards, even in countries and sectors that are This engagement with stakeholders is a key element. In the end, a highly vulnerable. World Bank project documents typically include lot of climate risk management can and must be done by people, due diligence on robustness in the light of currency fluctuations, communities, civil society (including humanitarian organizations changing market conditions, political unrest, and other factors, but such as the Red Cross/Red Crescent), and the private sector. Their not on the risk that the investment could be hit by a flood or storm. role is not just to disseminate climate risk information to the local As shown by an IEG evaluation entitled Hazards of Nature, Risks to level, but also to foster dialogue, trigger action, and provide feedback Development, countries affected by disaster, as well as the Bank and on priorities and the effectiveness of interventions. other donors that try to help them, have generally treated disasters as interruptions in development rather than as a risk that is integral to Within the Red Cross/Red Crescent, we have been mapping out development assistance (IEG 2006). the consequences of climate change for our humanitarian work in a growing number of developing countries. Red Cross/Red Crescent To that end, disaster management and climate change adaptation volunteers and staff all around the world are getting a close-up look at cannot be tackled by stand-alone projects or by specific agencies the impact of changing climate risks, and realize they need to enhance with client-country governments. Instead, they require an integrated their assistance to the most vulnerable. They also realize that relief and approach as part and parcel of regular development planning and reconstruction are not enough and are helping vulnerable communities project preparation. Such planning should be based on an analysis of to adapt to the changing risks. As demonstrated by these experiences, risks facing a country or sector and the specific program—including integrating climate change into their humanitarian work is not rocket direct risk, the risk of underperformance, and the risk that the project science, but it is not business as usual either—changes are needed. could trigger broader vulnerabilities, such as when new infrastructure And partnerships are key—among various government departments, fosters population growth in unsuitable areas. Rather than another the private sector, individuals, communities, civil society, and national burden on project planners, such risk management is actually an and international providers of scientific information. opportunity to enhance the robustness of programs and to achieve more effective and efficient poverty reduction. Climate change is a very serious challenge for development. While funding for climate risk management is expanding, it does not come Besides a responsibility for the effectiveness of its own investments, close to what is needed to fully address the rising risks, so we have to the World Bank also has a comparative advantage in helping client be smart and efficient. Precisely in that sense, however, climate change countries tackle these challenges by (a) engaging finance and planning also brings opportunities to enhance development by integrating risks agencies in debates about climate and disaster risk reduction; (b) that have been neglected for too long and to engage a broad array integrating risk reduction into sectoral programs, with spin-offs in of actors, foster enhanced coordination, and strengthen partnerships terms of capacity building on risk reduction within sectoral agencies; at all levels. and (c) streamlining and enhancing the effectiveness of existing coordination mechanisms, such as the national climate change focal points and disaster management agencies, which often lack political References clout in terms of pushing adaptation and risk reduction in major van Aalst, M.K., and S. Agrawala. 2005. “Analysis of Donor-Supported line agencies. Activities and National Plans.” In Shardul Agrawala, ed., Bridge over Troubled Waters—Linking Climate Change and Development. Paris, France: OECD. Daniel Cima/American Red Cross Burton, I., and M.K. van Aalst. 1999. “Come Hell or High Water: Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation into Bank Work.” World Bank Environment Department Paper No. 72. Washington, DC: World Bank. IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development—An IEG Evaluation of World Bank Assistance for Natural Disas- Rough terrain and a lack of paved roads make access difficult for Red Cross ters. Washington, DC: World Bank. vehicles trying to reach remote villages in Marsabit, Kenya. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 9 ADVANCING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION THROUGH GREATER Dr. Atiq Rahman Executive Director COLLECTIVE ACTIONS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies Dhaka, Bangladesh C limate change is a global process, but it has serious and barriers to adaptation, including physical and ecological barriers; devastating local impacts that are felt unevenly across the financial, institutional, and technological barriers; and information world. The poor in developing countries, who are likely and cognitive barriers. to suffer the most from the effects of climate change, have over many generations developed coping strategies to To address some of these limitations, we must build greater aware- deal with natural disasters and variability in weather and ness among vulnerable communities about climate change, as well climate. But these strategies are not likely to be effective in dealing as harmonize data and information about climate change and its with the devastating long-term impacts of climate change. Vulner- impacts. The UNFCCC supports information exchange and aware- able communities now need more planned and informed adaptation ness building, but this has not been adequately put into practice in strategies to protect their lives, livelihoods, wealth, and well-being sufficient scale. With the support of the World Bank, UN agencies, from climatic disasters. Scientists, policy and decision makers, and and others, local governments and competent NGOs should be development partners must work together to understand adaptation engaged in awareness and capacity building initiatives. It would be needs and develop appropriate and effective approaches for advancing appropriate to incorporate this into a broader framework of disaster community, local, regional, and sectoral adaptations. risk reduction. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change As for technology and resource mobilization, an inventory of adapta- (UNFCCC) has provided the moral, ethical, and scientific basis—as tion technology—including indigenous practices and eco-specific well as structure—for advancing adaptation. The convention urges interventions—could be adapted and modified to address climate all the parties to cooperate in preparation for adaptation to impacts change impacts at the local and regional scales. Developed countries of climate change and develop appropriate and integrated plans for and institutions must provide support for a technology inventory coastal zone management, water resources, and agriculture, as well as and innovation for adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the to minimize adverse effects of climate change on economic growth, developing world. Efforts must be made to ensure the transfer of public health, and environmental quality. It calls for urgent actions and these technologies and to monitor the appropriateness, efficacy, social resources from developed countries to assist the developing country acceptance, market access, and replicability of these technologies parties that are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. and practices. The World Bank can play a key role in initiating and furthering this process in collaboration with appropriate research, Progress and Barriers to Adaptation. The 2007 Intergovernmental policy, and extension organizations. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report identified a number of 10 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 UNFCCC Efforts on the Adaptation Front. The UNFCCC’s Nairobi knowledge and practices in advancing adaptation. Finally, NAPA Work Programme (NWP) on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation activities should consider short-, medium-, and long-term climatic to climate change aims to assist countries—particularly developing variability and impacts. Measures to help the poorest sectors of society countries, including the least-developed countries and small-island should be the first priority. states—to improve their understanding and actions in relation to impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. The NWP is structured around Involving NGOs and Communities. The Bangladesh Centre for nine areas of work, focusing mainly on assessment, capacity building, Advanced Studies (BCAS), an independent research and policy and informed decision making through research, development of institute in Dhaka, has a strong interest in understanding adaptation approaches, planning, and advocacy. needs and approaches. BCAS also seeks to promote climate change adaptation with various stakeholders and actors, including govern- The NWP offers a significant opportunity for advancing these ments, development agencies, and communities. In association with concepts to the planning stage. To ensure a significant number of the International Institute for Environment and Development and activities on the ground, we must build local adaptation capacity. development partners, BCAS organized an international Community- The tools developed in NWP can be utilized, but they must be Based Adaptation (CBA) Workshop in Dhaka in 2007 to enhance sensitive to the practices that communities have developed through understanding among scientists and practitioners about approaches their own knowledge systems and cultural sensitivity. Research and to adaptation and the integration of adaptation into sustainable implementing organizations, preferably from the South, could be used development. Working with partners under the South-South-North as intermediaries for hastening the process of innovative adaptation initiative, BCAS is also advancing community adaptation projects in projects and programs. drought- and salinity-affected areas of Bangladesh. Project activities may include both adaptation and mitigation measures, such as irriga- Linking Mitigation and Adaptation. The UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, tion with solar energy, afforestation, water security, and livelihood and NWP have suggested simultaneous actions by various actors on promotion. mitigation, adaptation, and technology innovation. Many scientists feel that mitigation is the best form of adaptation. Mitigation A Greater Need for Partnerships. Southern NGOs can play a key role measures—such as measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse in mainstreaming adaptation in development such as through disaster gases and to adopt a low-carbon development path—implemented risk reduction and other approaches, as well as assist in achieving now will reduce climate impacts and adaptation costs in future. MDGs such as promoting water and sanitation, poverty reduction, Though mitigation has been stumbling somewhat, there has been and enhancing nutrition for the poor. An interesting example is a some progress in adaptation efforts, particularly in the developing gradual change in the profile of adaptation activities in Bangladesh. countries. Many developing countries recognize that adaptation has A Climate Development Forum has been formed in which leading a direct and reinforcing relationship with poverty, food security and climate organizations are working closely with leading development health, livelihood promotion of the poor, disaster risk, and sustainable agencies. This process is generating a gradual mainstreaming of climate development. adaptation in the development process, but it is only a beginning. Helping Least-Developed Countries Adapt. Many of the least- Greater Equity and Collective Action. Climate change will increase developed countries have formulated National Adaptation Plans of inequity and social conflict in the coming decades if we don’t take Action, or NAPAs. The Global Environment Facility has supported urgent actions now before it goes beyond our control. The southern the formulation of NAPAs, but developing countries need resources and developing countries have very little capacity—both economi- and technology from developed countries and multilateral and cally and politically—to influence global decision making. The UN bilateral development agencies like the World Bank to implement Conference of Parties and related global decision-making processes the adaptation activities identified in NAPAs. must create greater scope and structure for effective participation and contribution from the South to reverse current practices. To The development of NAPAs also could be improved in various ways. build a better and just world, we have to ensure equity and justice For example, they should adopt a holistic and livelihood approach in mitigation, adaptation, technology generation and transfer, and instead of a sectoral approach. The NAPA process, in both planning resource allocation to save the planet, people, and ecosystems from and implementation, should ensure the integration of indigenous the emerging danger of climate change. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 11 IMPACTS ON HEALTH Luis Eduardo Mejia Mejia Director General Instituto Nacional de Salud Bogotá, Colombia C limate change is a threat to the health of the Colombian per 10,000 inhabitants in 1964 to 58 per 10,000 in 1983 and almost people. Several of the expected impacts will have a direct 156 per 10,000 inhabitants in 1998. The rate of dengue transmission or indirect impact on human health. Take, for example, has also shown an increasing trend, with a four-fold increase in cases the disappearance or reduction of ecosystems such as the from 1997 to 2002. In 2002, 81,831 Colombians fell ill to dengue páramos of Colombia; one might think this has no relation and dengue hemorrhagic fever. to or impact on human health. However, this disappearance or reduction may restrict access to water, with all the effects on health An adaptation measure that would provide great benefit and allow us that this may cause. to address, and in some cases prevent, the effects of climate change on human health is the strengthening of the public health surveillance Although there still is uncertainty about the magnitude of the global and control system. In Colombia our aim is to incorporate system impact of climate change on human health, there is no question that tools in public health surveillance that will allow us to determine negative local effects may be significant. This represents a challenge thresholds of temperature or precipitation on which increases in the for the health systems of all countries, especially for those with greater transmission of malaria and dengue are observed. With such tools, vulnerability to climate change. These countries generally happen to such as statistical modeling, we would be able to launch an early be those that have contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions, warning system based on climate variables. This would allow us to such as Colombia. anticipate the occurrence of epidemics or outbreaks and to formulate preventive action plans, rather than contingency plans as currently Therefore, we must begin a process of adaptation in health systems occurs in most cases. Through the health component of the Integrated that will allow us to foresee and whenever possible limit the negative National Adaptation Project (INAP), we are piloting this approach in impacts of climate change on human health. We cannot afford to wait until all necessary evidence is available before beginning this several Colombian municipalities (see Box, at right). process. In fact, Colombia already has evidence of the possible impacts of climate change on diseases such as malaria. Work performed by The task is a difficult one, because it requires important changes in the renowned universities, research groups, and institutions revealed a institutional schemes of the health sector and of other sectors involved four- to eightfold increase in malaria transmission in Pacific coastal and in the way in which the public health surveillance and control areas during the El Niño phenomena of 1994–95 and 1998. This system is operated. However, Colombia is making headway in this increase in transmission during El Niño makes it possible to estimate direction. The challenge ahead is to expand the INAP to a national the possible effects of this disease under a climate change scenario. scale. It is also important for us to engage in joint research with other countries in order to determine with greater precision the effects of Increases in incidence are already being observed. In Colombia, climate change on human health, thus decreasing uncertainty and malaria incidence during epidemic years increased from less than 15 enabling the identification of specific adaptation measures. 12 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HEALTH VIA THE INTEGRATED NATIONAL ADAPTATION PROJECT Colombia’s public health institutions have begun a strategic change to better cope with key threats related to the added risk from climate change. Colombia has adopted, with the support of the INAP project, a comprehensive effort to address the consequences of increased risks from dengue and malaria. The approach taken is summarized in the Figure below. The National Institute of Health (INS) is working toward the implementation of interventions that respond to local transmission dynamics, reduction of vector populations, and human infection. To such end INS, under the leadership of the Ministry of Health and in partnership with state and municipal heath agencies, has developed working groups to design and implement pilot “Preventive Actions Plans.” These actions plans are supported by: (a) applied research-oriented activities; (b) implementation of an integrated surveillance program encompassing ecological, climate, and clinical data; (c) design of a innovative and tailor-made early warning system to better focus scarce resources; (d) exploration of targeted actions in response to early warning signs; and (e) enhanced local capacity to include the community in response to warning events. Integrated Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control System INS and research collaborators INS MoH Municipalities State Health Department IDMSCS surveillance: SIVIGILA, Dengue/malaria “working groups” for design modeling efforts, operational research of Preventative Action Plans (PAPs) Dynamic modeling of ecological, socioeconomic, environmental, and house- ∙ Strategic intersectoral partnerships hold level factors involved in transmission ∙ Funding strategy ∙ Alternatives for local intervention strategies ∙ Ecological surveillance ∙ Climate monitoring ∙ Clinical diagnosis Implementation of interventions that Local capacity building, Municipalities respond to local transmission dynamics, INS monitoring and State Health Department reduction of vector populations and evaluation activities Community human infection Intersectoral partners Some early successes have been achieved. The following preliminary results are here highlighted as they point out the validity of the approach taken and its potential to guide other countries and regions. 1. Identification of key epidemic amplification neighborhoods/areas in each pilot municipality will allow focusing mosquito control in small areas, increasing the effectiveness of the control measures, reducing resources, and increasing attention to surveillance. 2. Applied research activities will allow a better understanding of the many factors affecting the effectiveness of public health delivery systems. Such knowledge allows heath managers to guide resources toward preventing actions that are not possible without specific local knowledge. 3. Well-defined experimental exercises are required to assess the effectiveness of new approaches to health delivery systems. Although efforts in Colombia to counter the negative impacts of climate change in malaria and dengue have produced very encouraging early results, it is too early to assess the new level of effectiveness achieved. 4. The challenge of implementing an applied research approach increases the commitment of those participating. Good communication of the project objective and its design among all participants has created a new sense of purpose, with an increased level of satisfaction among all involved. Only anecdotal evidence is available, but it is noticeable to those managing the program. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 13 The Changing Climate What We Know, What We Will Never Know, and What We Are Learning A common concern of many people eruptions, etc. The best models available, perature increase over this century for mid- when they first take up the ad- and simple physics, suggest that warming range assumptions about mitigation efforts. ditional challenge of dealing with will continue, especially while we continue By 2050 most models predict that surface adaptation to climate change putting more greenhouse gases into the at- temperatures will have warmed by about 1 along with the multitude of other challeng- mosphere. Estimates of the temperature rise to 2 degrees over 1970s’ temperatures. We es in their day-by-day tasks is that “there is over this century vary, but most fall within might think of this as that every location so much uncertainty.” It is true that there the range of 1.5 to 4 degrees Celsius tem- in temperate zones will be effectively 200 is uncertainty, but in this article I seek to at least categorize and bound some of those The frequency of both droughts and floods is increasing in Africa. While both uncertainties to help guide us in our work. I are damaging to livelihoods, floods are especially problematic, as they destroy produc- will deal with some of the important things tive infrastructure. Many regions are now experiencing flooding at a far higher frequen- that we do know, then some of the things cy and intensity than ever before. we are never likely to know, and finally some of the things we are learning and where we might be able to make a difference. What We Know The most important thing we know is that the Earth is warming. Observational evidence, complex modeling, and simple physics all confirm this. The warming may not go on forever, but the Earth has warmed consistently and unusually over the past few decades in a manner that can be explained only when a greenhouse process is overlaid on orbital variation, solar variation, volcano Source: Author’s analysis. 14 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Feature Articles ing in many parts of the world. Flooding is This gives any development planner a clear a particular problem in regions that have message. Over the next few decades, we rarely experienced floods in the past, as need to plan for a warmer and usually an floods tend to have a long-term impact on effectively drier climate, with most regions infrastructure, livelihoods, and economic suffering more periods of both low and development (see Figure, previous page). excessive rainfall. This is far from perfect Also, the combined effect of warming and knowledge, but not much different from the slight increase in rainfall in many regions the myriad of other uncertainties that need of the world is going to be a drier climate, to be factored into development planning. as potential evaporation increases by the I feel fairly confident to plan on the global equivalent of about 50 millimeters of rain- temperature in 2030 being about 1.5 de- fall per year per degree Celsius temperature grees higher than in the 1970s and the con- increase. Thus, increased evaporation from sequences that follow. Looking at the Figure, higher temperatures will outstrip modest top of next page, does anyone feel confident increases in rainfall in most regions. This can that they can estimate the oil price in 2030 be best summarized using a drought index or predict the conflict regions at that time that balances precipitation and evaporation. and the consequences that follow? Will Davies The Figure below, from the recent IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, shows a distinct An important point for any development drying trend during the 20th century over planner to recognize is that adaptation to to 300 kilometers closer to the equator, al- most of the globe and in particular over climate change is simply a component of though the actual change is more complex, some of the world’s major food bowls—the sound development planning. The challenge with summer temperatures often affected Mediterranean basin, southern Africa, Aus- is to make development activities more cli- more than winter and more subtle changes tralian cereal belt, northeast China, and mate-resilient. The first step in doing that is in precipitation. Another comparison is much of South and Southeast Asia. to make activities more resilient to current that the unusually warm weather that has affected so much of the world over the past Changes in the Palmer Drought Index since the 1980s (red-yellow more droughts; decade is only about half a degree above the blue-green fewer). Despite a small increase in global precipitation, most of the land surface, temperatures of the 1970s. including many important food-producing areas, is experiencing increased drought condi- tions. The impact of these droughts can be reduced by adapting agricultural practices; this remains a core challenge to both developed and developing countries. We also know that the atmosphere is getting wetter as higher temperatures lead to more evaporation from both land and ocean. More moisture in the atmosphere has led to a modest few percent increase in global precipitation over the past century, but at- mospheric models and basic physics suggest that this will continue as higher tempera- tures lead to more evaporation and thus even more moisture in the atmosphere. But there will be large spatial variability in changes in precipitation. Some regions, such as the Mediterranean basin, are projected to have significantly less rainfall. More important, rainfall events are changing, and observa- tions and modeling both confirm that rain Source: Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden, and P. Zhai. 2007. is tending to come in fewer intense events “Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change.” In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller, eds., Climate with longer dry spells between them. This is Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York: Cambridge University Press. leading to more dry spells and more flood- ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 15 Variation in global mean temperature and oil prices. There are many sources of uncer- tainty in development planning. change are likely to be replaced by a radi- cally differently designed set over the next few years. The different socioeconomic sce- narios will be replaced by four representative concentration pathways: a “without-action scenario,” in which greenhouse gas concen- trations continue to increase through 2100, and three scenarios in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at different levels during this century. This will allow Degrees greater focus in doing the expensive climate simulations. During 2010, new simulation results will become available; these will in- clude multiple runs to get better estimates of projected variability. For the period to 2035, there will be a series of high-resolu- tion runs that will give us a much better estimate of possible near-term climates. Meanwhile new socioeconomic scenarios of our response to climate change are being developed; by using statistical techniques Source: Author’s analysis. based on the suite of climate simulations de- scribed above, the consequences for climate climate-related trends and variability. This is activities, but we cannot know the weather change can be estimated. why access to recent climate records (e.g., more than a few weeks ahead. The Earth’s the past 30 years) is just as important as ac- atmosphere is chaotic, and weather-related cess to various climate change projections. early warning systems that extend beyond On top of this, there are still huge uncer- In dealing with climate variability we must a few weeks will always be probabilistic. tainties about whether some thresholds now also look ahead to how climate is pro- This means, for example, we can say at the might be exceeded. A decade ago the sci- jected to change and whether the selected time of selecting a crop variety to plant that, entific community was confident that the actions are compatible with such a change. based on current conditions, El Niño, and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would In some cases this step may suggest further recent trends, weather conditions in 60 days show little melting this century. Now, with analysis and this can usually be done by time during the critical seed-set phase of distinct signs of rapid melting and the dis- extending analyses of current climate vari- your crop are 30 percent more likely to be covery of new melting processes, this is rec- ability with some simple climate scenarios. damagingly dry. But we cannot forecast that ognized as too cautious a conclusion. Other they will be dry. uncertainties include dramatic changes in ocean currents; interactions between higher Also, there will always remain difficulty in temperatures, drying, and fires, leading to What We Will Never estimating the climate for more than a few greatly increased emissions in tropical and decades ahead. This is partly because the cli- Know mate models are inadequate, but largely be- boreal forests; and the rapid melting of per- mafrost and associated methane emissions. cause societal behavior is even more difficult Now, a few things we are never likely to to predict. Most of the uncertainty in the These sorts of high impact but low prob- know—at least in our and possibly our IPCC temperature projections for the end ability uncertainties will always remain. We grandchildren’s lifetimes. Weather fore- of the century arises from the uncertainty must continue to monitor the changing un- casting has improved enormously in my about which emissions path we will choose derstanding of these phenomena, but they lifetime, with 10-day forecasts now having to follow. The IPCC scenarios that have are no reason to delay acting on the threats some real information content for planning been the basis for so much work on climate we are much more certain about. 16 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2006 Feature Articles What We Are World Bank Photo Library Learning Finally, in which areas are we learning? Climate modeling is continuing to improve. Higher resolution global circulation models (GCMs) will provide better projections at a regional level and, most important, a better description of rainfall events, as the model resolution allows better tracking of cloud formation and major storm paths (see Figure, below). This is why several groups in the Bank are using the results of the Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology’s Earth Simulator, which covers the globe with a 20-km grid rather to translate climate projections into impacts to start, of course, is with current climate than the more usual 200- to 500-km grid right now. variability, observed trends, and the current of most GCMs. The challenge will be to coping strategies of communities and insti- translate these better projections into better However, the most important lesson that we tutions. However, coping strategies of the estimates of the impacts in terms of flooding are all struggling to learn is how to factor past may no longer be suitable—not only patterns, crop growth, etc. An even harder climate change into the wider develop- because of the effects of climate change, but task will be translating the biophysical im- ment agenda. Adaptation to climate change also because changing social and trade pat- pacts into impacts on livelihoods, human should not be treated as a stand-alone issue. terns may exceed the range that traditional behavior, and national economies. Better We have until now dealt rather poorly with coping measures are able to address. Effective climate projections will certainly become current climate variability; now we have to strategies may already be known elsewhere, available in the future, but it is important to do much better, and with a changing and but this knowledge has to be transmitted and start to develop models and other methods apparently more variable climate. The place in many cases new knowledge, new tech- nology, and new crop varieties developed. In some cases, current livelihoods may no Higher resolution in a global circulation model can make huge improvements in longer be viable. These strategies may have modeling storms and precipitation patterns. The image on the left is a snapshot of a to be supported and bolstered, but in some model run using a coarse resolution (c. 320 km), while the image on the right is a similar point in the model run at a higher resolution (20km). cases new strategies may have to be found, especially if climate projections are adverse to current strategies. In this sense, climate change will provide opportunities for revis- iting current practices. With the provision of additional resources, as discussed in other chapters, climate change can be a stimulus to assist the transition to improved practices of land management, energy production, coastal protection, and so on, especially in the poorest countries. This article was prepared by Ian Noble, inoble@worldbank.org, of the Environment Source: Shapiro, Melvyn, and others. 2007. The Socioeconomic and Environmental Benefits of a Revolution in Weather, Climate, and Earth-System Analysis and Prediction. A Department. ENV website: www.worldbank. Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Project for the 21st Century. Picture courtesy of Takeshi Enomoto, Earth Simulator Center/JAMTEC. org/environment/climatechange. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2005–JUNE 2006 (FY06) 17 Beyond the Sea Walls Financing Adaptation Needs in Developing Countries T he policy response to global The consequences of extreme events are al- Goals (MDGs). World Bank estimates sug- warming has focused on the steps ready being disproportionately felt in devel- gest that, if countries improve their policies that industrial and developing oping countries. For low-income countries, and institutions, the MDG targets can be nations should take to mitigate major natural disasters today cost an average reached by 2015 with additional resources greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Far less of 5 percent of GDP. Water stress is increas- of $40–60 billion a year. However, ongoing attention has been paid to what develop- ing in Africa; by 2020, between 75 million climate change ultimately will affect ef- ing countries should do to adapt to the and 250 million people are projected to forts and resources needed to reduce global consequences of foreseeable climate change be exposed to increased water stress due to poverty. in the coming decades. Climate change ad- climate change. Food security, health, and aptation encompasses more than structural agricultural incomes will be under particu- How can developing countries and their measures—sea walls, land use planning, and lar threat from climate change in many of development partners improve their ca- building code—and also more than better the poorest countries, including in South pacity to cope with and adapt to climate sectoral policies for agriculture, water, for- Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. According change? While sustained economic growth estry, and human health. It also requires to a recent Bank study, a 1o C increase in might eventually equip countries with the ensuring that countries’ legal and economic temperature will lead to a 10 percent loss resources necessary to expand their adaptive structures and price signals encourage in average net revenues per hectare in Africa capacities, on various other fronts—such adaptation. (Kurukulasuriya and others, 2006). as adjusting the macro- and sectoral policy environment—a more proactive stance is Developing countries, particularly the poor- Most studies have focused on physical and needed to minimize these impacts. est countries, will be the ones most vulnera- social disruption associated with climate ble to climate change and increasing climate variability. Much less attention has been variability because they have the least capac- paid to the less quantifiable and indirect ity to adapt. Excessive floods, droughts, heat effects on widening of trade or government Coping with the waves, and rising sea levels will amplify the deficits, unemployment, or the increasing already existing challenges posed by tropical scale and depth of poverty. Even more so, Structural Impacts geography, a heavy dependence on rainfed climate change as a source of economic agriculture, rapid population growth, pov- vulnerability has often been overlooked in High dependence on sectors that are sensi- erty, and a limited capacity to cope with an discussions about achieving and sustaining tive to changes in climate—such as agricul- uncertain climate. progress with the Millennium Development ture, water resources, energy, forestry, and 18 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Feature Articles put additional pressure on water allocation culture and water) in many countries are mechanisms, creating the potential for new not well adapted to current climate variabil- water use conflicts between different users ity and extreme events. If these countries and regions. could—through policy reforms, institu- tional development, and improved access While these refer mostly to costs of physical and use of available technologies—become investments, a much longer-term planning less vulnerable to current climate variability, and resource allocation effort will be neces- they would almost certainly reduce their sary in many other areas such as agriculture, vulnerability to long-term human-induced water resources, and health. In agriculture, climate change. this will entail promoting farming practices that withstand climate variability. Water Further, in many countries the insurance supply infrastructure will need to anticipate sector is only at a nascent stage of develop- possible climate effects. Serious environ- ment. To a large extent, it does not have the mental and health risks might necessitate capacity or ability to optimize risk coverage a significant restructuring of resources di- and premium terms. rected toward strengthening public health Will Davies interventions. These will entail integrating adaptation Financing for fisheries—increases the economic vulner- within national development policies, plans, ability of poorer countries to the adverse and programs. But this is bound to generate Adaptation effects of climate change. Increased climate some form of additional costs, so decision variability is expected to reduce agricultural makers would need to identify the most While incentives may often be created productivity, potentially increase malnutri- efficient measures that generate the highest by governments, most actual adaptation tion, decrease water availability in many social and economic returns in the face of measures will be autonomous and taken by areas of the subtropics, and increase the risk and uncertainty. A more accurate un- individuals and the private sector. However, incidence of many diseases. Rising sea level derstanding and quantification is urgently adaptation measures that require an exten- could displace tens of millions of people in needed to help demonstrate why and how sive capital investment will require direct deltaic areas and small island states. governments can approach adaptation. public intervention. The additional costs of making new infrastructure and buildings re- In the short term, a number of structural silient to climate change in OECD countries adaptation measures can reduce the costs is estimated to range from $15–150 billion associated with climatic variability. These Policy Approaches include (a) land use planning to reduce or Klas Sanders adapt construction on coastal regions sub- Unlike greenhouse gas mitigation, which ject to storm damage and river shorelines has to be coordinated internationally, incen- subject to frequent floods; (b) building tives for adaptation to climate change are standards aimed at ensuring some level of essentially local, national, or in some cases robustness against hurricanes and other regional issues. While renewed attention extreme events; (c) engineering interven- to mitigation based on new information is tions, such as creation of reservoirs for important, the inevitable consequences of flood control, irrigation, and hydropower; climate change should not be ignored. It is (d) dikes to reroute flood waters; and (e) therefore in the interest of governments in seawalls to break storm surges. One of the developing countries to proactively create most significant impacts of climate change the right incentives and institutions, pro- is likely to be on the hydrological system. vide more information to the private sector, This will be particularly true in arid and and develop basic knowledge on adaptive semi-arid areas, where water scarcity will technologies. Key sectors (especially agri- ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 19 A recent World Bank study looked at GLOBAL STUDY ON ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION how much International Development This multidonor research study aims to assess the resource implications and eventual tradeoffs Association (IDA) commitments would for developing countries to adapt to different scenarios of climate change as they continue to need to increase in order to maintain a advance their development and poverty reduction agendas. constant level of net benefits to client coun- The specific objectives are to (a) develop sectoral and global cost estimates of adaptation and tries after accounting for climate change (b) develop and transfer to developing countries a working methodology to assess adaptation impacts. The results are presented in the costs and improve these estimates as more data and analyses become available. Table (top of next page), for three different levels of climate change impacts as derived The methodology would include (a) identification and quantification of damage costs of cli- mate change without planned adaptation; (b) development of cost-benefit analyses of adapta- from the Stern Review. The low estimate tion actions based on the identification and costing of a range of such actions (from policy and assumes market impacts only, the medium regulatory changes, when more readily quantifiable, to investment decisions); (c) consideration estimate assumes a higher sensitivity of of different time horizons, discounting, and climate scenarios; and (d) integration of the regional global climate to GHG emissions, while the and sector analyses with national and global computable general equilibrium models. high estimate includes both higher climate sensitivity and non-market impacts in the each year (0.05–0.5 percent of GDP), with GDP annually, as noted in the Stern Review form of damage to human health. The higher costs reflecting the prospects of higher (see Box, below). More recent estimates by table derived from simulations suggests temperatures in the future (Stern 2006). For the UNFCCC Secretariat are in the range that countries receiving about $9 billion in example, the cost of building infrastructure of $28–67 billion. These estimates are IDA credits in fiscal 2006 would need an that offers protection against future storm broadly consistent with the Bank estimates increment in commitments of between $0.6 surges and floods has been estimated in the (UNFCCC 2007). billion and $1.9 billion in order to offset the United Kingdom at $18–56 million annu- effects of climate change and to provide the ally for the next 80 years (Hallegate 2006). These estimates assume increased frequency of these events E STIMATING THE OSTS OF DAPTATION C A due to climate variability. Similar During the preparation of the Clean Energy Investment Framework, some preliminary estimates of the estimates for developing countries costs of adaptation were calculated. These continue to be the first global estimates of adaptation from a are not currently available. To fill this developing-country perspective. The approach used examined the core flows of development finance, estimated the proportion of investment that is sensitive to climate risk, and then calculated the additional gap, the World Bank, in partnership cost to reduce risk to account for climate change. According to the estimate, ODA and concessional finance with the governments of the UK and have the most climate-sensitive component, with relatively less in private and government investment as the Netherlands, is leading a global the financing shifts from high-risk development spending in poverty reduction to commercial investment. program of research on the eco- While the estimated cost of adaptation of 10 to 20 percent is an assumption that is debatable, it draws nomics of adaptation in developing on the Bank’s experience in project preparation and financing (see Table, below). It is likely that in most countries that was launched in Bali activities, only certain components will need to be modified, often at relatively low cost and sometimes in December 2007 (see Box, above). no additional cost. Nonetheless, these estimates provide a reasonable basis for addressing costs and ways of financing adaptation in developing countries. Total per year Meanwhile, the World Bank has Amount per year Estimated portion Estimates costs of (in billions Item (in billions of $) climate-sensitive (%) adaptation (%) of 2000$) broadly calculated a global estimate ODA and Concessional 100 40 10–20 4–8 based on investment flows—both in- Finance ternational and domestic—in devel- FDI 160 10 10–20 2–3 oping countries and calculated how Gross Domestic 1,500 2–10 10–20 3–30 much of these investments are likely Investment to be sensitive to climate impact and Total International 6–11 how much more investment would Finance be needed to make the investments Total Adaptation Finance 9–41 more resilient to the changes. The figures are in the range of $10–40 Cost of Additional 40 Impacts billion a year for the developing Source: World Bank 2006. countries alone, or 1 percent of 20 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2006 Feature Articles Incremental IDA Requirements to Cope with Climate Change Stern Review Damage Estimates Current IDA credits: $9.00 billion (FY06) Low Medium High Increase in IDA credits to offset projected benefit losses caused by climate damages ($ bn) $0.58 $1.36 $1.89 Percent increase in IDA credits (%) 6 15 21 Source: World Bank 2007. additional finance to avoid resources being countries’ legal and economic structures and effective mix of responses—ranging from diverted from achieving the MDGs. price signals encourage adaptation. The costs policy measures to shift incentives to invest- are substantial and cannot be borne by de- ment adjustments, extension of services, and The international community—including veloping countries alone. The international improved contingency planning. Failure to GEF, the World Bank Group, the regional community should support these efforts by do so could undercut the global communi- development banks, and bilaterals—has enhancing cooperation in mitigating GHG ty’s efforts to cut poverty in half worldwide already been an important contributor to emissions, stimulating the development of by 2015 and make further progress with the the mobilization of resources in this direc- new technologies, and helping to identify, attainment of the MDGs. tion. The successful replenishment of IDA develop, and finance a comprehensive set of provides a strong platform for integrating cost-effective adaptation measures. Support References adaptation into development programs in needs to be provided to address the need to poor countries. Financial instruments for transform the way adaptation is approached Hallegate, S. 2006. “A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the New Orleans Flood Protection System.” adaptation—existing and new—are de- and financed—from often being stand-alone Regulatory Analysis 06-02. Washington, DC: scribed in the Box below. to an approach that assures that adaptation AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory is fully integrated in national and sectoral Studies. Available at: http://www.aei-brookings. In conclusion, governments face the chal- development planning and budgeting. org. lenge of helping the private sector and com- Only if this is done across economic sectors Kurukulasuriya, P., and others. 2006. “Will Af- munities adapt to increasing temperatures and levels of governance can government rican Agriculture Survive Climate Change?” The and climate variability by ensuring that their agencies make choices about the most cost- World Bank Economic Review 20(3):367–388. Stern, N. 2006. Stern Review: The Economics of FINANCING MECHANISMS FOR ADAPTATION Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge Uni- versity Press. Available at: www.hm-treasury.gov. Creation of a new adaptation fund was announced at the recent UNFCCC Conference of Parties uk/. meeting held in Bali (Indonesia). It has been proposed that the fund is to be initially admin- UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Con- istered by the Global Environment Facility, with the World Bank to act as a trustee. Funding vention on Climate Change). 2007. “Report on will mainly come from a 2 percent levy on revenues generated by the Clean Development the Analysis of Existing and Potential Investment Mechanism. This fund will also receive funds from other sources. It will finance implementation and Financial Flows Relevant to the Develop- of concrete adaptation projects in developing countries, including activities aimed at avoiding ment of an Effective and Appropriate Interna- forest degradation and combating land degradation and desertification. tional Response to Climate Change.” Dialogue Working Paper 8. Two other adaptation funds, the Special Climate Change Fund and the Least Developed Coun- tries Fund, are already operational. The Special Climate Change Fund supports adaptation proj- World Bank. 2006. “Clean Energy Investment ects in all developing countries. The Least Developed Countries Fund helps in the preparation Framework.” Washington, DC: World Bank. and implementation of national adaptation programs of action in the least-developed countries. Furthermore, the Strategic Priority to Pilot an Operational Approach on Adaptation is a funding World Bank. 2007. “IDA and Climate Change: allocation within the GEF Trust Fund whose objective is to support pilot and demonstration Making Climate Action Work For Develop- projects that address local adaptation needs and generate global environmental benefits in all ment.” Washington, DC: World Bank. GEF focal areas. Contributions from all these adaptation funds are expected to be between $150 million and $400 million a year, which is far less than the anticipated needs to face climate variability in developing countries. This article was prepared by Muthukumara The recent IDA replenishment recognizes the need for increased resources to assist countries to adapt within their development framework. The World Bank also continues to work with coun- Mani, mmani@worldbank.org, of the Envi- tries in directing financing for adaptation through its various projects and programs. ronment Department. ENV website: www. worldbank.org/environment. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2005–JUNE 2006 (FY06) 21 Biodiversity and Adaptation Challenges and Opportunities sustenance, trade, medicines, tourism, and How can improved biodiversity manage- T he Millennium Ecosystem industry. Natural ecosystems provide a ment enhance resilience to climate change Assessment showed that over the whole range of services, often unrecognized and adaptation strategies? The Bank is al- past 50 years human activities in national economic accounts, but vital ready a major global funder of biodiversity have changed ecosystems more to human welfare: regulating water flows, initiatives, including support to more than rapidly and extensively than at any compa- flood control, decontamination, and carbon 500 projects in over 100 countries during rable period in our history. These changes sequestration, as well as providing nursery the last 15 years. Many of those projects are have contributed to many net gains, but at grounds for many species and products promoting sound natural resource manage- growing environmental costs: biodiversity on which human communities depend. ment that could contribute to adaptation loss, land degradation, and reduced access Enhanced protection and management of through maintaining and restoring native to natural resources for many of the world’s biological resources will also contribute to ecosystems and protecting large blocks of poorest people. Habitat loss and fragmenta- solutions as nations and communities strive natural habitats across altitudinal gradients. tion, overexploitation, pollution, the impact to adapt to climate change. Projects in the MesoAmerican Biological of invasive alien species, and, increasingly, Corridor, support to the mosaic of state climate change all threaten global biodiver- New initiatives under the climate change and indigenous reserves in the Amazon rain sity. Many of these factors are interlinked. forests and the South African megareserves agenda provide both opportunities and Thus the warming of coastal waters and in the Cape Floral Kingdom, and maintain- challenges for biodiversity conservation. coral die-off impacts coastal fisheries due to ing corridors from the mountains to the Bio-energy plantations can substitute for loss of fish habitats and breeding grounds. coast all protect important ecosystems and fossil fuels and may also provide benefits to Similarly, degradation and disturbance in species refuges. The large rain forest blocks small farmers engaged in their production. terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems generate in the Amazon notably influence global However, without careful planning, biofuel niches that can be exploited by invasive ex- and local climates and rainfall patterns. production could lead to further clearance otic species. Other projects are focusing on strengthened of natural habitats, either for biofuels them- selves or for new agricultural land to replace resource management to cope with greater This biodiversity loss matters because spe- climatic fluctuations, such as improved fire converted crop lands. Similarly, wind, cies and habitats are the building blocks hydropower, and wave energy solutions management in dryland and Mediterranean on which human livelihoods depend—the require careful site selection and evaluation habitats and the Russian boreal forests. foundation for productive forests, fisheries, of likely impacts on habitats and wildlife, and agricultural crops. Biological resources especially rare species. It has been estimated globally that land and provide the raw materials for livelihoods, forest conversion contributes up to 18 per- 22 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Feature Articles tourism industries, but also offers increased In response to climate change, many coun- protection from sea level rise and extreme tries are likely to invest in more infrastruc- weather events. ture to address energy needs, irrigation, and flood control. Such strategies are rational The Bank’s emphasis on biodiversity conser- and needed responses, but could further vation, both as a global public good and a threaten biodiversity if new development means of adaptation, will be an important leads to unmitigated destruction of natu- part of the new Climate Change Strategic ral habitats through creation of dams, sea Framework. Agricultural programs, for in- walls, and flood canals. Increasingly in the stance, will need to take account of climate infrastructure sector, however, the Bank can change and changing rainfall patterns. An draw on some good conservation experi- emphasis on community-driven develop- ence. For example, protection of the forests ment is encouraging more sustainable around the Nam Theun2 Dam in Laos, and agriculture, avoiding overgrazing and land a 30-year conservation fund to manage the degradation, and developing new agrofor- watershed, is a critical factor in extending estry systems and multi-species cropping. the lifespan of the hydropower generation Increased attention is also being paid to con- facility. Rehabilitation of upland watersheds serving agrobiodiversity in crop gene banks and wetlands contributes to regulating water COREL and traditional agricultural practices to flow, regulating floods and sedimentation, maintain diversity of varieties and crops for reducing vulnerability, and improving water cent of greenhouse gas emissions annually. food security (see, e.g., Box on “Agriculture quality for downstream communities. This Emerging from the United Nations climate and Adaptation to a Changing Climate in has already been shown on a large scale in conference held in Bali in December 2007, Yemen,” page 50). the China Loess Plateau project through its calls for greater action on avoided deforesta- positive impact on local agricultural produc- tion could provide new opportunities for On the other hand, the introduction of new tivity, household incomes, and biodiversity, rewarding nations and communities for im- and adaptable exotic species for agriculture, as well as downstream sediment reduction. proved forest protection and management. biofuels, mariculture, aquaculture, and re- The Bank has been a leader in promoting forestation presents a particular challenge. Adaptation will increasingly become and incentives for protecting ecosystem services Many of the attributes that make species has to be central to the development agen- for carbon sequestration and biodiversity useful for introduction (fast-growing, da. Enhanced protection and management benefits. New initiatives, such as the Forest adaptable, tolerant of disturbance, and able of natural ecosystems and more sustainable Carbon Partnership Fund, afford opportu- to thrive in a wide variety of conditions) are management of natural resources and agri- nities to protect forests for carbon sequestra- exactly the same characteristics that can en- cultural crops is a critical part of sustainable tion and other multiple benefits, including able a species to become invasive. Invasive adaptation strategies. Biodiversity conserva- conservation of biologically rich habitats alien species (IAS) are a threat to both tion can play an important, cost-effective, and greater community benefits from na- biodiversity and economic development, and efficient role in reducing vulnerability tive forest management and watershed reducing crop and fisheries yields, choking to climate change. protection. irrigation canals, blocking hydroelectric dams, and reducing the lifespan of develop- Further Reading In aquatic systems, the global Coral Reef ment investments. The economic impacts of IAS are expensive, an estimated $140 billion Quintero, J.D. 2007. Mainstreaming Conserva- Targeted Research project provides the sci- tion in Infrastructure Projects: Case Studies from entific underpinning for management prac- annually in the United States alone. The Latin America. Washington, DC: World Bank. tices to adapt reef and fisheries management Bank is beginning to take action to address to address the threats arising from global this much-neglected threat through a global World Bank. 2006. Mountains to Coral Reefs: The partnership with the Global Invasive Species World Bank and Biodiversity. Washington, DC: warming. Elsewhere, projects in Central World Bank. America, Tanzania, Indonesia, and Vietnam Programme. Assisting clients, especially the focus on integrated coastal zone manage- LDCs and Small Island Developing States, This article was prepared by Kathy MacKin- ment, enhancing protection of mangroves, to better understand and manage IAS non, kmackinnon@worldbank.org, of the coastal wetlands, and off-shore reefs, which problems will be an important part of the Environment Department. ENV website: www. helps sustain local fisheries and thriving adaptation and development agenda. worldbank.org/environment. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 23 Adapting to Climate Change Understanding the Social Dimensions of Vulnerability and Resilience Vulnerability to Climate T he consequences of climate events like hurricanes) or trends (such as change will not be distributed equally. While some scientific Change environmental degradation over time). On the other hand, social dimensions of vulner- uncertainties remain about the ability to climate change are predominantly character, magnitude, and rates of future Climate-related hazards do not automati- about the internal side—that is, what assets, climate change, there is widespread con- cally translate into disasters. It is the overall institutions, and relationships do people sensus in scientific and policy communities vulnerability and capacity for resilience have to deal with these external threats, and that planetary warming will have significant that will determine if a society can absorb how in turn will their social organization impacts on sea levels, weather systems, eco- climate impacts and positively respond or be affected? Social vulnerability is assessed systems, public health, and economic devel- is unable to do so and therefore suffers the at the level of individuals, households, or opment. Less well understood are the likely losses associated with disaster. If vulnerabil- groups, but incorporates factors that exist impacts on human societies. Who will bear ity therefore marks the threshold between at local, regional, national, and sometimes the direct costs of climate change? Who will successfully adapting to climate events and global scales. The concept therefore relates bear the costs of adapting to climate change not being able to do so, then what comprises to the ability of individuals or groups to act or of working to prevent it? How will soci- vulnerability and how can it be managed? within the social, political, and environ- eties and communities organize themselves mental contexts in which they live. to cope with risks and manage the social In the development literature, vulnerability changes associated with climate change? has two dimensions: (1) an external side consisting of the risks, shocks, and stresses Typically, the biophysical and economic to which people are subject, and (2) an Resilience—the Flip causes of vulnerability to climate change internal side encompassing the means to receive the greatest attention, yet social withstand or adjust to damaging loss. The Side of Vulnerability dynamics can be decisive in determining biophysical perspective on vulnerability the susceptibility to harm and level of resil- in the context of climate change is largely If vulnerability determines the extent to ience of different social groups. This article about the degree of human exposure to which individuals or a community will po- argues that effectively managing the effects threats provoked by climate change and is tentially suffer from climate-related events, of climate change means confronting and therefore primarily external, comprising than resilience is the ability to manage integrating these social dimensions into the amount of potential damage caused to and adapt. It incorporates the notions of adaptation planning. a system by shocks (such as sudden climatic self-organization and the ability to learn, 24 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Feature Articles for possible population relocations, and ef- are needed that look at the social processes forts to address other key health and liveli- that drive households into vulnerable con- hood impacts. ditions and at structural inequalities that are often at the root of social-environmental vulnerabilities, while at the same time real- izing the potential of the coping strategies Building Community in the historical record of communities and social groups. The Box below provides an Capacity for Resilience example from northeastern Brazil of reduc- ing vulnerability and enhancing resilience Given the inability of climate models to in the face of recurrent drought that may Curt Carnemark/World Bank PhotoLibrary identify precise risks in different locations worsen with climate change. and within social groups, and given the variability between these models, the aspi- While some adaptation responses are ration to have precise top-down planning only easily realizable by the state or the for local-level adaptation is clearly wishful international community (i.e., provision thinking. It therefore makes sense to focus of large-scale infrastructure and large-scale the adaptation agenda for climate change social transfer in the wake of major shocks on reducing vulnerability by improving the affecting large areas), top-down planning adaptive capacity and resilience of the poor- approaches alone will not be sufficient to cope, and maintain future options. Rather est and most marginalized groups. Strategies respond to climate-change-related impacts. than a concern about how to stop, change or minimize impacts, resilience is the abil- ity to manage change. People’s resilience or VULNERABILITY EXPOSED—ADAPTING TO RECURRENT capacity to manage and adapt to change is DROUGHT IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL determined by both their assets—including Drought in northeast Brazil regularly exposes the underlying vulnerabilities confronting the rural the amount and quality of knowledge and population. Although drought events no longer cause significant mortality, they still contribute labor, physical and financial capital, and to human suffering, deprivation, and poverty. There has been growing concern that climate social relations and networks—and the ser- change will exacerbate current vulnerabilities. vices they can access—such as transport and There have been two major reasons why the majority of communities and residents live in con- communication, access to credit, markets, ditions highly vulnerable to drought. First, they depend on rainfed agriculture. There is limited and emergency relief and recovery systems. access to climate-neutral employment, and efforts to encourage industry to reduce this depen- dency have provided only minimal relief. Second, interventions have consisted of post-drought A grasp of the social factors that contribute social security and welfare payments with little investment in capacity building for community to a population’s vulnerability and resilience preparedness. While these transfer payments are important for recovery because they protect strengthens the capability of governments families from being overwhelmed by drought, the measure also maintains the patron-client and aid agencies to develop effective prepa- relationship with government instead of developing the capacity of communities to respond to and recover from events. While government assistance will always be critical, neglecting the ratory measures to prevent and minimize cli- communities’ capacity contributes to persistent vulnerabilities. mate change consequences. This knowledge contributes to a more precise understanding This perspective is gradually changing. Instead of only focusing on government-led recovery, of who is vulnerable and how and why they there is now increased investment in developing capacities at the community and individual are vulnerable or resilient, which is critical if level. The Ceará state government, for example, is providing institutional support to a commu- nity-driven development initiative that uses participatory GIS (geographic information systems) public policy and development strategies are to draw on local understanding of local problems and potential solutions. The methodology to foster sustainable adaptation to climate is largely based on understanding drought not only as a biophysical but also a socioeconomic change. In the Maldives, for example, the problem and to enhance preparedness by identifying and strengthening existing sources of government’s framework for adaptation resilience in order to live in, and adapt to, a semi-arid environment. includes attention to building the capacity Souce: D. Nelson and T. Finan. Forthcoming. “Weak Winters: Dynamic Decision Making and Extended Drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil.” In E.C. Jones and of farming households to adapt to climate A.D. Murphy, eds., The Political Economy of Hazards and Disasters. Walnut Creek, CA: AltaMira Press. change, long-term participatory planning ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 25 If state responses are to be as effective as pos- One important asset that can prevent Development Department is advancing a sible, the capacity of those at risk to make households from becoming more vulner- work program focusing on the following claims on public institutions for support is able is the ability to act collectively through four themes: critical to ensure that a public response to strong community networks, known as Supporting effective adaptation to such events will benefit the most vulner- social capital. The strength or weakness of climate change through understanding able. For example, the capacity of poor social networks affects how a community poverty and social impacts. A variety of people to cope with famine has been shown collectively manages natural resources and factors make poor people more vulner- to depend on their communities’ ability to systems, resolves disputes, distributes ben- able to the impacts of climate change, make claims on various sources of support. efits, and takes advantage of new opportuni- including (a) being dependent on Therefore, understanding the capacity of ties. Therefore, the presence or lack of social fragile natural resources for livelihoods, vulnerable communities to have agency as capital influences a community’s ability to (b) inhabiting areas of less productive well as how their voices can be strengthened confront poverty and vulnerability. Strong potential and greater environment risk, becomes critical for assuring effective public social capital can potentially enhance the re- and (c) lacking assets and capabilities, action. silience of both social and natural systems. which enable effective adaptation. Helping communities and households to Based on the assets they possess and services manage risk, adapt to adverse impacts, they can access, communities and social and participate in actions to mitigate groups independently develop different The Bank’s Role climate change. Successful adaptation adaptation strategies for climate-related to climate change will require local- challenges. These techniques come out of In order to stem the threats from climate level institutions that foster collective firsthand experience confronting actual change, the international adaptation action on a range of key tasks, such as climatic variability and natural disasters and agenda needs to prioritize reducing social managing natural resources, mediating therefore offer an important source of learn- vulnerabilities and enhancing social resil- competition over scarce resources to ing and knowledge. ience. To this end, the World Bank’s Social prevent insecurity and conflict, mutual Curt Carnemark/World Bank PhotoLibrary 26 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2006 Feature Articles Curt Carnemark/World Bank PhotoLibrary aid, and community-based infrastruc- ture development and maintenance. Ensuring that actions to mitigate cli- mate change benefit poor people. An explicit consideration of the likely pov- erty and social impacts of mitigation measures will be critical to ensuring that key investments include and ben- efit the poor rather than eroding their livelihoods. Understanding the political economy of climate action. Accountability and public debate over climate action are important for developing responses that include vulnerable populations. A focus on understanding power dynamics and a concern for social justice and equity will help to ensure that poor people have voice and agency in decision mak- ing for climate change planning. The Social Development Department’s ef- forts on the social dimensions of climate change include the following main elements: (a) stocktaking in areas where substantial adaptation planning. It is important that Working Paper 38. Norwich, UK: Tyndall existing bodies of work exist to bring the efforts be focused on not only determining Center for Climate Research. Bank up to speed on existing knowledge; who will be most vulnerable to what events (b) new research and knowledge genera- and what exacerbates that vulnerability, Chambers, R. 1989. “Editorial Introduc- tion to deepen understanding of the social but what policies will best strengthen their tion: Vulnerability, Coping and Policy.” IDS dimensions of climate change in key areas capacity to adapt positively. In that light, it Bulletin 20(2): pp.1-7. for policy and program action; (c) broader is critical that international development corporate policy development to integrate a agencies pursue strategies that link global Woolcock, M., and D. Narayan. 2000. “So- concern for the social dimensions into the efforts for climate change mitigation with cial Capital: Implications for Development Bank’s key policy and strategy processes at local efforts that strengthen the capacity of Theory, Research and Policy.” The World both the central and regional levels; and (d) vulnerable communities to adapt to climate- Bank Research Observer 15(2): 225–49. development of policy and operational ap- change effects. proaches to climate action that include poor and vulnerable populations. Further Reading This article was prepared by Mafalda Duarte, mduarte@worldbank.org, Rachel Nadelman, Adger, W.N. 2001. Social Capital and Cli- rnadelman@worldbank.org, and Andrew mate Change. Norwich, UK: Tyndall Center Peter Norton, anorton@worldbank.org, from Moving Forward for Climate Change Research. the World Bank Social Development Depart- ment; and by Donald Nelson, d.nelson@ Adger, W. N. 2004. New Indicators of Vul- The social dimensions of climate change are uea.ac.uk, and Johanna Wolf, j.wolf@uea. nerability and Adaptive Capacity. Norwich, about the implications for human well-be- ac.uk, both Senior Research Associates at the UK: Tyndall Center for Climate Change ing, human agency, social organization, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Research. social justice. Confronting the social di- Social Development website: www.worldbank. mensions of vulnerability to climate change Brooks, N. 2003. “Vulnerability, Risk, and org/socialdevelopment. Tyndall Center website: will be critical for effective and sustainable Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework.” http://www.tyndall.ac.uk. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2005–JUNE 2006 (FY06) 27 Water Security An Adaptation Imperative Water and Growth W hy does climate change They have remained poor in part because it worry us? With regard to has never been possible for them to make water, we fear a world of Most industrialized nations enjoy an “easy” the comparatively large investments needed droughts and floods endan- hydrology of moderate, predictable rainfall to achieve water security, investments that gering populations and economies and of and long ago achieved water security (see can only be funded from the growth that rainfall so unpredictable that our knowledge Box, below). Many of the poorest countries water insecurity itself constrains. They are and institutions, watersheds, reservoirs, and are characterized by a “difficult” hydrology— therefore in a low-level equilibrium trap. distribution systems will be inadequate to high inter- and intra-annual variability and ensure the regulation and delivery of wa- extremes of rainfall—and, perhaps as a con- Ethiopia, for example, experiences highly ter when it is needed. We worry about the sequence, have not achieved water security. variable rainfall and devastating droughts health impacts associated with this inability to manage water and the ecosystem impacts of managing water resources (to the extent CREATING WATER SECURITY we are able to do so at all) reactively rather Water security can be defined as the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, than holistically. livelihoods, ecosystems, and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments, and economies. Water security in turn requires a minimum platform of institutions (i.e., human capacity, organizations, Climate change may bring back these chal- information, regulations, and lenges to countries that for a hundred years incentives) and infrastructure Water and Growth S-Curve have enjoyed robust water security, with (i.e., natural and man-made, Contribution of water to growth large and small) to manage and Industrialized reliable water supplies and few, if any, water deliver water. economy ‘Easy’ Hydrology shocks. ‘Difficult’ Hydrology The magnitude and mixture of Intermediate economy Minimum platform of investments needed to achieve investment for water Developing security These challenges are already the reality, water security will depend ‘Minimum platform’ economy ‘a’ upon a country’s hydrology and ‘Tipping point’ however, for many of the poorest countries the vulnerability of its economy for water security investment level with ‘easy’ hydrology that have always faced significant hydro- and people, such as its depen- ‘b’ ‘Tipping point’ investment level with logical variability and have not yet achieved dence on rainfed agriculture or ‘difficult’ hydrology the location of cities and assets water security. Climate change will further in floodplains. a b Cumulative investment in water increase the complexity and cost of water infrastructure & institutions Source: Grey and Sadoff 2007. security in these nations. 28 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Feature Articles In India, the economic impact of the sea- Those countries expected to see the greatest sonal monsoon has lessened as the economy increases in hydrological variability (and has diversified. But in poor, water-insecure hence in adaptation deficits) will be those states like Bihar, the monsoon can still shock already experiencing the greatest variability the state economy by about 15 percent. In and vulnerability—and generally those that 2007, flooding in Bihar affected 20 million lack the institutions and infrastructure to people in 11,000 villages. Rapidly melting manage their water resources. glaciers in the regional headwaters and in- creases in monsoon extremes predicted as a Ironically, those hardest hit are also likely to consequence of climate change will intensify be the countries that have contributed the the impacts of climate variability. least to the drivers of global climate change. This link between hydrological variability and growth holds globally—greater rainfall variability is associated with lower per capita Water Security in an GDP (Brown and Lall 2006). The wealthiest countries in the world typically experience Age of Climate Change Vahid Alavian low levels of intra-annual and inter-annual rainfall variability, while the poorest coun- In all countries, adaptive capacity—both so- tries have the highest. cial and physical—will need to be enhanced whose effects ripple through the economy to protect the poorest and most vulnerable (see Figure, below). Hydrological variability populations and ecosystems. In some coun- was estimated to cost the Ethiopian econ- tries, adaptation may even call for structural omy over one-third of its growth potential Water Security—The changes to vulnerable economies. Whatever (World Bank 2006). The very structure of the route, achieving water security is the economy, with its heavy reliance on First Step in Adaptation imperative for poverty reduction and a rainfed subsistence agriculture, makes it fundamental adaptation strategy for the wa- particularly vulnerable. Extremely low lev- Water is the primary medium through ter-insecure poor in an age of climate change. els of hydraulic infrastructure and limited which climate change will impact people, management capacity undermine attempts economies, and ecosystems. Today’s hydro- References to manage variability. These circumstances logical variability is already a fundamental Brown, Casey, and Upmanu Lall. 2006. “Climate and Economic Development: The Role of Vari- leave Ethiopia’s economy virtually hostage development challenge in many poor coun- ability and a Framework for Resilience.” Natural to its hydrology. tries. Achieving water security is therefore a Resources Forum 30 (2006): 306-317. first and necessary step toward climate ad- aptation, and an investment that will deliver Grey, David, and Claudia W. Sadoff. 2007. “Sink or Swim? Water Security for Growth and important growth and poverty Development.” Water Policy 9 (6): 545–571. Rainfall Variability and GDP Growth in Ethiopia gains independent of climate 80 25 change outcomes. World Bank. 2006. Managing Water Resources to 20 Maximize Sustainable Growth: A Country Water 60 Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia. Wash- 15 The climate change “adaptation 40 ington, DC: World Bank. 10 deficit” in many of the world’s percentage 20 5 poorest countries builds on 0 0 a legacy of water insecurity. This article was prepared by Claudia W. Sa- 1998 1992 -5 2000 1990 1996 1999 1986 1988 1995 1993 1989 1987 1997 1991 1985 1984 1983 1982 1994 - 20 -10 Seen another way, the intrac- doff, Economic Advisor, IUCN, and Principal - 40 year -15 table water security challenge Economist, IWMI, and David Grey, dgrey@ - 60 in many poor countries will worldbank.org, of the Environment Depart- -25 be compounded by climate ment. IUCN website: www.iucn.org, South - 80 GDP growth -30 change, which will increase the Asia Region Water website: www.worldbank. Rainfall variation around the mean Source: World Bank 2006. complexity and cost of ensur- org/sarwater. ing water security. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 29 Insuring Against Risks Piloting Index-Based I n general, communities that have the effort by receiving a payment based on the capacity to take adaptive measures in response to climate change are less likely Livestock Insurance in area losses. to suffer from potentially adverse im- Mongolia In 2006, the government of Mongolia pacts. However, at times the impacts may decided to begin a three-year pilot pro- exceed their ability to cope. Being able to The Mongolian countryside remains a gram designed by the World Bank in three put in place a sustainable system to help herder-based economy, with livestock hus- provinces of Mongolia (Bayankhongor, them recover from such situations can avert bandry supporting half of the population Uvs, and Khenti). This program combines utter ruin of community livelihoods or gov- and contributing to nearly one-third of the self-insurance, market-based insurance, and ernment budgets. Insurance is a mechanism national GDP. Major livestock losses are social insurance. Herders retain small losses with such potential. The World Bank and common; during dzuds (Mongolia’s harsh that do not affect the viability of their busi- other agencies are gaining experience in winters), high levels of livestock mortality ness, while larger losses are transferred to working with a diverse array of insurance are often unavoidable. From 2000–02, one- the private insurance industry. Participating projects that span different regions and third of Mongolia’s livestock (11 million insurers share underwriting gains and losses climatic hazards, different scales (commu- animals) perished due to harsh winters. in the livestock insurance indemnity pool, nity-level; multi-country) and vary in terms which is a syndicated pooling arrangement. of the index used to make payments. Below A promising approach to provide herder The government of Mongolia fully covers are two examples of climate-hazard-related households with liquidity in the aftermath the final layer of catastrophic losses—in- insurance schemes under way that look of a disaster is an index-based insurance sured losses beyond the reserves of the promising: (a) the index-based livestock in- product to indemnify herders based on the pool—through an unlimited (stop-loss) surance in Mongolia and (b) the Caribbean mortality rate of adult animals in a given Olivier Mahul Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility. In ad- area. The index-based livestock insurance dition, other index-based insurance schemes policy pays indemnities whenever the adult are under implementation, such as a scheme mortality rate exceeds a specific threshold to hedge drought risk in agricultural pro- for a localized region (e.g., the soum in duction for smallholder farmers in Malawi. Mongolia). It provides incentives for good Weather index insurance offers promise, but management; if a better herder has no losses mainly if focused on selected hazards like de- when his neighbors have had large losses, ficient rainfall (drought) or excess rainfall. the better herder is rewarded for the extra 30 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Feature Articles insurance programs for the poor. It supports with the financial capacity of the interna- a public-private partnership that aims (a) to tional financial markets. This allows CCRIF offer insurance coverage that is attractive to respond to events that may occur only to herders, (b) to involve the domestic in- once every 1,000 years or more, achieving a surance market while protecting it against higher level of resiliency than international catastrophic losses, and (c) to limit the fiscal standards. CCRIF was able to secure $110 exposure of the government. million of claims-paying capacity on the in- ternational reinsurance and capital markets. The project is also complementary to the on- Work is also being considered to expand the going IDA-funded Sustainable Livelihoods scope of the coverage provided by CCRIF Project, which encompasses a package of to other natural hazards such as floods and initiatives, including participatory grazing tsunamis, as well as to other Caribbean and pasture management and support to territories. the hay and fodder enterprise development. From June 1 to December 31, 2007, five earthquake events and two hurricanes were Yawar Arif Herekar reported by CCRIF participants. Hurricane Helping the Caribbean Dean, which passed through the Caribbean Basin on August 18–20, 2007, was the Cope with Hurricane most significant of these events for CCRIF reinsurance treaty, backed by a World Bank contingent credit facility. and Earthquake participants. Even though this hurricane event generated losses on several islands, Damages these losses remained below the attachment The livestock insurance indemnity pool has point of the policies purchased by the af- several major advantages: (a) it fully protects Caribbean states are highly vulnerable to fected countries. This event was a good test other lines of insurance, as the insurance natural disasters and have limited financial of the CCRIF operational mechanisms. The industry in Mongolia is still under-devel- options to respond. On average, a major facility operated as planned, with all affected oped; (b) it fully protects the indemnities hurricane affects a country in the region countries informed within 24 hours of the needed to pay for losses under the pool, every two years. The Caribbean Catastrophe interim payout calculations resulting from thus eliminating any risk of default on pay- Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), which was the passage of the storm. ments; (c) it allows the insurance companies launched on June 2007, is the first regional to pool their livestock insurance portfolio in catastrophe insurance facility in the world. In the light of Hurricane Dean and following different regions; and (d) it facilitates col- It provides 16 participating governments inputs from different stakeholders, CCRIF laboration among the insurance companies from the Caribbean region with immedi- has reviewed some of its operational proce- selling the commercial product. After two ate liquidity in the aftermath of a natural dures. The events following Hurricane Dean sales seasons, 13 percent of the eligible herd- disaster. By pooling their risks together, demonstrated the need for improved com- ers purchased the insurance product from participant countries save approximately munication regarding the coverage provided four local insurance companies, protecting 40 percent over individual premiums. and the operating mechanisms of the facility. almost 600,000 animals. Participating governments are Anguilla, Caribbean public relations expertise has been Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, retained by CCRIF for this purpose, and The pilot program has a strong outreach Belize, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, CCRIF is working on a comprehensive com- component to inform herders about the Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, St. munications strategy for the facility. attributes of the index insurance product. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Radio campaigns, local presentations, news- Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago, and the letters, press releases, and a wide array of Turks and Caicos Islands. other activities are planned. This article was prepared by Olivier Mahul, CCRIF’s reserves come from participating omahul@worldbank.org, of the Financial This program paves the way for the develop- countries and donors. Its capacity to service and Private Sector Development SS Net. FPD ment of financially sustainable agriculture claims is based on its own reserves combined website: www.worldbank.org/finance. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 31 Sub-Saharan Africa Region Cape Mauritania Verde Mali Niger Senegal Chad Eritrea Burkina Sudan Faso Nigeria Guinea Benin Sierra Togo C.A.R. Ethiopia Leone Cameroon Somalia Liberia Uganda Guinea-Bissau Congo The Gambia Rwanda Côte d'Ivoire Burundi Kenya Ghana Tanzania Equatorial Guinea D.R. of São Tomé and Congo Seychelles Príncipe Angola Comoros Gabon Zambia Malawi Mauritius Namibia Zimbabwe Botswana Madagascar South Mozambique Africa Swaziland IBRD 31567R JANUARY 2008 Lesotho Frank Sperling K ENYA I n the climate change debate, long-term change often gets the equator either south or north, there is a steep decline in average all the attention. As a result, the role of current climate in annual rainfall accompanied by an increase in variability (see Figure influencing development processes can be overlooked. This below). This broad picture is somewhat modulated by the influ- applies in particular to Africa. Africa is the only continent ence of larger-scale atmospheric circulation and topography. For that resides almost exclusively within tropical latitudes. Two- example, the western equatorial regions are wetter than the eastern. thirds of its land surface can be classified as dryland. Moving from Average annual precipita- tion [mm/year] (left) and coefficient of variation [%] (right) over Africa derived from UEA-CRU 1951–2000 monthly time series. While agriculture is often the mainstay of economies in Africa, the figures illustrate that for large parts Mean Annual Rainfall Coefficient of Variation (mm/year) (percent) of the continent marginal climates for 0 − 200 0 − 10 natural-resource-based activities, char- 201 − 400 11 − 20 401 − 600 acterized by high degrees of rainfall 601 − 800 21 − 30 31 − 40 variability, predominate. 801 − 1,000 1,001 − 1,200 41 − 50 1,201 − 1,400 51 − 60 1,401 − 1,600 61 − 70 1,601 − 1,800 > 70 1,801 − 2,000 Source: A. Lotsch, 2007, Pers. Communication. 32 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REGION The Ethiopian highlands experience a cooler the livelihoods of over 420 million people, have implications for energy infrastructure and wetter climate than the surrounding almost 60 percent of the region’s population, in African countries. lowlands. are centered on agriculture, hunting, fishing, Adaptation to or forestry (FAO 2004). For most African Over the past century, the average surface countries, agriculture continues to be the temperature over the African continent has increased by about 0.5º C (for example, main pillar of the economy in terms of em- ployment and contribution to GDP. With Climate Change— Hulme, Doherty, and Ngara 2001). The limited access to irrigation, livelihood ac- Climate Risk warming trend is becoming more pro- tivities are highly vulnerable to variations in nounced; by the end of this century, the rainfall. For example, agricultural growth for Management median increase in temperature is projected Ethiopia closely follows variations in annual Adaptation to climate change should be to be 3 to 4º C higher than present-day con- rainfall (see Sadoff and Grey, pages 28–29). viewed as part of a continuous process of ditions (IPCC 2007). For the large number of subsistence-based managing climate risks. Risk mitigation livelihoods, however, it is particularly the im- strategies need to take into account the time The projected changes in rainfall suggest that pact on nonmonetary assets that reinforces horizon and scope of development activities. the existing differences in water availabil- conditions of food insecurity and poverty. At the local level, practical interventions will ity across the continent will be exacerbated. be predominantly focused on reducing vul- This generally means already wet areas will Among other factors, climate-related vul- nerabilities to current climate variability and receive more rainfall, while already dry areas nerabilities are affected by land use change climatic changes, which are already visible. will receive even less. and environmental degradation and demo- At the district and national level, it is impor- graphic trends. Agricultural growth has been tant that, first, an enabling environment is Rising temperatures will also increase evapo- largely achieved through expansion of culti- established to manage existing climate risks ration rates. A recent analysis of the com- vated areas and not productivity gains (IEG and, second, programs (for example, educa- bined effects of changes in temperature and 2007). By 2030, every third person born in tion, incentives for economic diversification) precipitation suggests that the length of the the world will live in Sub-Saharan Africa. are initiated that will help reduce vulnerabili- growing period tends to decrease for large ties to medium- to long-term risks associated parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, with the most In light of the existing vulnerabilities, the with climate change. The latter implies assess- notable exceptions being highland areas impact of climate change on natural resourc- ing the implications of climate change for the (Thornton and others 2006). es and ecosystem services and the associated viability of livelihoods, development strate- implications for food security and agricul- gies, and long-term structural investments. Aside from changes in average conditions, tural productivity represent key concerns. the effects of climate change on climate vari- Climate change lends further urgency to the Climate change also requires regional dia- ability and the exposure to extreme events are sustainable management of land and water logue and cooperation. Sixty-seven main a grave concern. There is growing evidence resources and the reduction of environmen- water courses are shared by 47 countries. for shifts and changes in the characteristics tal degradation. There is a need for knowledge partnership of the rainy season. and joint capacity development in order to Other key vulnerabilities that need to be con- address and respond to changes in water and Key Vulnerabilities sidered include the effect of climate change natural resources efficiently and effectively on the disease burden in humans and live- and defuse conflict potential. Tackling re- The frequent and increasing occurrence stock, given the prevalence of water- and vec- source management—especially water re- of climate-related disasters, particularly tor-borne diseases. Another grave concern is sources management at the basin level—and droughts and floods, underscores that the the loss of housing and infrastructure due to fostering transboundary cooperation is one region’s adaptive capacities are often already floods and coastal erosion processes, which response that the Bank has supported in sev- overwhelmed under current climatic condi- is already well documented for a number of eral major basins in Africa. tions (OFDA/CRED database). African countries, such as Mozambique and South Africa (IPCC 2007). Inadequate roads At the country level, coordination mecha- Livelihoods and economic activities are also hamper efficient emergency relief and nisms on climate change need to be heavily dependent on natural resources and access to markets when it is most needed. strengthened and embedded in existing ecosystem services. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Changes in extremes and run-off also will country partnership strategies. Uganda re- ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 33 ceives about 630 new donor projects and ac- management at the basin level. For example, fication of risk management and risk transfer tivities per year, Tanzania 700, Ethiopia 790, in the Nile Basin, such activities include con- schemes. and Mozambique 845 (Paris 2006). Client sideration of climate change scenarios in the countries often participate in a broad range Strategic Social and Environmental Assess- Malawi. Activities are focused on main- of multilateral agreements. In light of these ment for the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region. streaming disaster and climate risk man- complexities, it is important that there is In addition, climate information and sce- agement into country planning processes, clear communication between client coun- narios are being factored into both the Nile strengthening meteorological services, tries and donors on key vulnerabilities and Decision Support System and the Eastern contingency planning, piloting index insur- ways to address them. Nile Planning Model, which are intended ance schemes, and development of cyclone- to help identify future investments and im- resistant building codes for housing, roads, and other infrastructure. World Bank Activities prove cooperative basin management. The overarching objective is to make more Kenya. A range of project activities in Burkina Faso. The World Bank is engaged development processes more resilient to cli- Western Kenya and the country’s arid and in community-based activities focused on matic risks to ensure their sustainability. A semi-arid lands address climate-related sustainable management of natural resourc- growing number of World Bank IDA proj- vulnerabilities. These include knowledge es, which includes managing current and fu- ects include adaptation components, recog- development; providing investments for ture climate risks within the broader project nizing climate change rarely can be addressed watershed, drought and flood management; context. through stand-alone projects but rather has strengthening early warning systems; pro- to be viewed in terms of its effects on the moting community-driven development ef- Other regional or country-specific projects achievement of core development objectives. forts focused on improving local capacities that include adaptation activities are under Integrating climate risk management per- to manage near-term risks; and supporting execution or preparation in West Africa, spectives into IDA investments represents capacities at the district and national level to Southern Africa, the Niger Basin, Ethio- the key entry point for reducing vulner- manage medium- and long-term risks asso- pia, Mozambique, São Tomé, Sudan, and abilities. In addition to directly addressing ciate with climate change. Tanzania. climate risks in IDA projects, the World Bank is using supplemental grant finances from the Global Environment Facility, the Madagascar. The World Bank provides technical assistance on the linkage between Linking Mitigation Global Facility of Disaster Risk Reduction, and various trust funds (TFESSD, BNPP). hazard management and adaptation, explor- ing in particular the evolution of cyclone and Adaptation Reducing vulnerabilities to climate vari- These resources are also underpinning a and drought risk. Working with the govern- ability and change within the development range of analytical and capacity building ac- ment, this analytical work guides the identi- context represents a priority concern for tivities (for example, see pages 58–61) that Africa, as most African countries have small seek to inform development investments Frank Sperling per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions about climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and and contribute little in aggregate terms to adaptation options. Some examples follow: the world’s total emissions. However, it is important not to overlook opportunities for Cross-regional and multicountry. The Africa through the emerging carbon market World Bank is engaged in the multi- and to consider the implications of climate stakeholder TerrAfrica partnership, which change for the energy infrastructure, given aims to harmonize and scale-up sustainable the high dependency of many African coun- land management investments. The program tries on hydropower. recognizes climate risk management as an integral component of its activities, which Deforestation and land degradation process- include coalition building at the global, re- es are not only a source of GHGs (see Figure gional and national level, knowledge devel- on next page), but often also contribute to opment and management, and investments. an increased vulnerability to climate risks. Carbon finance provides new opportuni- Regional, river-basin specific. The Bank is Kenya ties to counteract some of these trends while also engaged in mainstreaming climate risk 34 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REGION A Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources. While in other regions of knowledge resource tailored to the informa- the world emission sources are linked to the combustion of fossil fuels, the dominant emission tion needs of the World Bank and its client sources in Africa are land use change, including deforestation. Land degradation processes not countries to improve the resilience to current only contribute to an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but often exacer- bate vulnerabilities to climate-related risks. climate variability and be prepared for future change. 100% 90% References 80% 70% FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2004. FAOSTAT. Available at: 60% http://faostat.fao.org/. 50% 40% Hulme, M., R. Doherty, and T. Ngara. 2001. “Af- 30% rican Climate Change: 1900–2100.” Clim. Res. 20% 17: 145–168. 10% IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2007. 0% AFR OECD Developing Countries World Bank Assistance to Agriculture in Sub- Electricity & Heat Manufacturing & Construction Transportation Saharan Africa. An IEG Review. IEG Study Series. Other Fuel Combustion Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Waste Agriculture Land Use Change & Forestry Washington, DC: World Bank. contributing to local development objec- tives. Implemented under the World Bank’s Next Steps IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. “Climate Change 2007: The BioCarbon Fund, projects are under way in In response to the internal and external rec- Physical Science Basis.” Contribution of Work- Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, and Ugan- ognition of climate change as a development ing Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the issue that will threaten the development IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University da that combine carbon sequestration with gains of recent years, the World Bank’s Af- Press. sustainable development and environmental rica Region is now working on building a conservation objectives. The establishment OFDA/CRED. EM DAT (Emergency Events systematic approach to addressing climate of the new Carbon Forest Partnership Fa- Database). Available at: http://www.em-dat.net/. change issues. The goal is to mainstream cli- cility will provide additional value for the mate risk management perspectives into the protection of existing forests by creating Paris, R. 2006. “Linking Climate Change Adapta- general project portfolio of the World Bank incentives for reducing forest degradation. tion and Disaster Risk Management for Sustain- to ensure that development objectives are This will help to further promote sustainable able Poverty Reduction.” Presentation at VARG sustainable and not compromised by climate forest management. workshop, Geneva, October 2–4. See www.cli- change. matevarg.org under news. As reflected in the World Bank’s Africa Ac- The Bank’s Africa Region is currently de- Thornton, P.K., P.G. Jones, T.M. Owiyo, and tion Plan, improving energy access in Africa veloping a strategy for making develop- others. 2006. “Mapping Climate Vulnerability has to be a high priority for development. ment more resilient to climate variability and Poverty in Africa.” Report to the Department In Sub-Saharan Africa, only 25 percent of and change. The main pillars of the strat- for International Development. Nairobi, Kenya: households have access to electricity. Invest- egy are (a) adaptation, (b) mitigation, and ILRI. ment decisions taken today will decide the (c) knowledge and capacity building. This type of energy infrastructure for decades to strategic and conceptual framework is ac- come. As climate change impacts are increas- companied by two analytical and technical ingly becoming visible, it is prudent to ask assistance components that are focused on how climate change may impact on the abil- assessing the implications of climate vari- ity to generate energy, for example, through ability and change for water resource and This article was prepared by Frank Sperling, changes in run-off and where opportunities fsperling@worldbank.org, and Aziz Bouzaher, land management and on studying the eco- abouzaher@worldbank.org, both of the Africa exist for Africa to leapfrog to more energy- nomics of adaptation. The goal of this work Environment and Natural Resource Management efficient or clean energy technologies. is to generate a common and consistent Unit. AFR website: www.worldbank.org/afr. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 35 East Asia and Pacific Region Mongolia China Rep. of Korea Lao P.D.R. Myanmar Vietnam Cambodia Thailand Philippines Marshall Islands Malaysia Palau Fed. States of Micronesia Kiribati Papua Indonesia New Solomon Guinea Is. Timor-Leste Samoa Vanuatu Fiji IBRD 31562R JANUARY 2008 Tonga World Bank Photo Library I NDONESIA N ations in the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) region have surges, cyclones, floods, and droughts—with substantial economic a number of characteristics that increase the region’s vul- consequences. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity nerability to climate change impacts. For example, over and frequency of such events. According to the IPCC’s middle- half of the region’s population resides in coastal locations range scenario (IPCC 2007), EAP will experience a significant rise and in low-lying islands. In addition, the region relies heavily on of about 2.5° C in temperature by 2100. In addition, precipitation agriculture and marine resources, and water and energy demand patterns will change. The relationship between global average tem- is growing rapidly. Climate change impacts will eventually be felt perature changes and regional climate change is uncertain and will throughout the region, affecting virtually every major sector, un- vary between countries and regions, especially with regard to chang- dermining recent gains in economic growth and poverty alleviation, es in precipitation. Further inland, a significant increase in extreme and impeding the region’s progress toward achieving the Millen- precipitation is expected in areas such as the Yangtze River basin in nium Development Goals. China, suggesting the likely occurrence of severe floods. The Impacts of Climate Change Changes in climate would have diverse and potentially significant impacts on the region’s people, environment, and economy. The in EAP major implications of climate change can be structured in three dis- tinct but highly interrelated categories: Over the course of this century, climate change is expected to have significant impacts in the East Asia and Pacific region. EAP f Environmental—changes in coastal and marine systems, forest is already characterized by extreme climate events—such as storm cover, and biodiversity 36 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION f Economic—threats to water security, as increased floods, which would threaten Tourism. Tourism is a growing source of rev- impacts on agriculture and fisheries, livelihoods, infrastructure, and productiv- enue for many countries in the EAP region. disruption of tourism, and reduced ity. Rapid economic and population growth Climate change will have both direct and energy security and migration from rural to urban areas also indirect effects on the tourism industry. As f Social—displacement, loss of liveli- are placing severe stress on urban water sup- noted above, sea level rise will result in loss hoods, and increased health problems; ply and sanitation systems, increasing the of beaches, degradation of coastal ecosys- the greatest impacts would be on the competition for surface and groundwater re- tems, saline intrusion, and damage to criti- poorest residents of cities and surround- sources and resulting in deteriorating water cal infrastructure. The resulting economic ing areas, such as slums in low-lying quality through point-source pollution and impacts on tourism could be high. coastal cities. saltwater intrusion. The economy and liveli- hoods in the region could be fundamentally Energy. Changes in hydrological cycles will Impacts by Sector impacted by these changes. affect hydro potential. In 2003, China’s hy- dropower generation was 23 percent of the Agriculture. Agricultural activities account Fisheries and marine resources. Commer- country’s economically exploitable potential. for 13 percent of the region’s GDP, but in cial and subsistence marine and freshwater However, glacial melt in the Himalayas and some countries they account for as much as fisheries and aquaculture are important for uncertain rainfall downstream may curtail one-third. An estimated 60 percent of peo- food security and the economies of many the potential for hydropower in the long ple live in rural areas, and about 50 percent countries in the region. Climate change is term. Flooding from storms and glacial of the region’s land is dedicated to agricul- also expected to have significant impacts on melt is expected to increase sedimentation, ture. Agricultural productivity is likely to fisheries. Climatic factors affect the elements adversely affecting drainage and efficiency of suffer severe losses due to high temperatures, that influence the number and distribution hydropower projects. Moreover, hydropower drought, flooding, coastal inundation, soil of marine fish species by impacting on food projects reduce sediment discharge to river degradation, and associated factors. Changes availability, breeding habits, and the presence deltas downstream, making them more sus- in agricultural output will vary significantly and species composition of competitors and ceptible to erosion and the effects of sea level across the region, and will be closely linked predators. In addition, competing demands rise. Renewables (other than hydropower) to the availability of water for irrigation. Pest for land and water, and the loss of inshore such as solar and wind present additional al- populations and crop pathogens are expected fish nursery habitats to coastal development, ternatives to fossil fuels, especially in isolated to increase, with negative impacts on produc- may cause significant change to ecosystems regions in EAP. In 2002, these sources ac- tivity in the sector. Impacts on trade—and and losses to commercial aquaculture. Over- counted for 1.3 percent of EAP’s generated thus on overall economic growth—could be fishing, excessive use of pesticides, industrial electricity. Plans to increase energy security substantial. pollution, diseases, red tide, and construction could be affected by climate change. At the of dikes and other coastal structures further same time, energy demand in EAP is increas- Water resources. Water availability, critical increase the stress on marine resources. to economic growth and poverty alleviation in the region, is especially vulnerable to cli- World Bank Photo Library mate change. There are already many threats to water security, including increasing de- mand, pollution, unsustainable extraction, and water rights conflicts. Climate change is expected to cause significant and com- plex water security changes associated with changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as changes in the delta regions of ma- jor river basins associated with sea level rise, coastal storms, and saltwater intrusion. In general, EAP will receive more precipitation. This could have both positive effects—such as more cereal production in rainfed areas in northern China—and negative effects—such Timor-Leste ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 37 ing due to industrialization, urbanization, the incidence of ciguatera poisoning from ing to distribute the above-mentioned and increased motor vehicle use. 35–70 per 1,000 people to about 160–430 investments in an optimal way across per thousand in 2050 (World Bank 2000). private and public sectors, and encour- Ecosystems and biodiversity. The region con- aging financial institutions to invest Adaptation Challenge tains numerous global biodiversity hotspots f Deepening the World Bank’s engage- and World Heritage sites that are home to ment in the forestry sector and reduc- some of the rarest and most endangered spe- cies and ecosystems (such as coral reefs) in and the World Bank’s tion of land use change by (a) working on avoided deforestation issues in Indo- the world. Human pressures, together with Assistance nesia and Papua New Guinea and (b) changing hydrology, may impact the pro- developing a forestry strategy for EAP Adapting to the impacts of climate change ductivity and resilience of these ecosystems. f Responding to the adaptation needs poses a difficult challenge for developing of vulnerable cities, countries, and countries. It is important that governments Health. Human communities in EAP are regions. provide a clear policy framework to guide already at risk from the health implications adaptation in the following key areas: (a) of degraded ecosystems. Cholera and other Adaptation is an emerging area of interest high-quality climate change information, waterborne diseases are on the rise in coastal and cooperation between the Bank and gov- including improved regional climate pre- countries and may be related to declining ernments in the region. The Bank is combin- dictions, particularly for rainfall and storm water quality, climate, and algal blooms. ing climate change efforts with the broader patterns; (b) land use planning and perfor- There is also an increase in the incidence of development and poverty alleviation agenda mance standards to encourage private and diseases of marine organisms and the emer- to foster more climate-resilient and sustain- public investments in buildings, capital, gence of new pathogens, some of which are able economies. Given the dramatic varia- and infrastructure that are resilient to the harmful to humans, such as ciguatera, which tions in climate change impacts based on effects of climate change, as well as protec- causes seafood poisoning (UNEP 2006). location, a localized analysis and assessment tion of vulnerable utilities and facilities; (c) Kiribati already has one of the highest rates is needed to determine what those impacts long-term climate-sensitive policies such of ciguatera poisoning in the Pacific. The may be and how best to deal with them. as natural resource and coastal protection, rise in temperatures is expected to increase Mounting evidence also shows the need for disaster and emergency preparedness, and a close linkage between disaster risk manage- relocation of vulnerable human settlements; Highlights from the ment and the climate change agenda. For and (d) financial safety nets to help the more example, compared to the past, the Central EAP Portfolio vulnerable sections of society, who are the Equatorial Pacific is experiencing more in- least likely to be able to afford protection. Some of the highlights of the EAP Re- tense rain (about a 30 percent change) and a These are critical building blocks that must gion’s portfolio with regard to adap- hotter climate (0.6° C). Sea surface tempera- tation include the following: be tackled through comprehensive, coordi- tures have increased by about 0.4° C (Hay • An adaptation project is in an nated approaches at the national, sectoral, implementation phase for the and others 2003). As the EAP region is also and local levels. Coastal cities, major river Kiribati Islands (KAP-II). The key climatically diverse, the region is particu- objective of the project is to as- basins, agricultural areas, forests and dry- larly vulnerable to multiple climate change sist the government of Kiribati in lands, marine ecosystems, and small islands diagnosing climate-related prob- impacts. However, the time frames of major will be areas of specific concern. lems and designing cost-effective impacts seem distant or uncertain, and the adaptation measures, while con- costs and benefits of some adaptation actions tinuing to integrate climate-risk The EAP Region’s evolving climate change awareness and responses into might not be fully appreciated. strategy encompasses both adaptation and economic and operational plan- ning. mitigation and outlines a “transformative” EAP has helped develop some actions that • The World Bank is providing tech- vision for the Bank. Specifically, it will focus nical assistance to Indonesia on fall into the “win-win” category—that is, ap- on: a National Strategy for Climate proaches that make sense under current con- Change Adaptation. This will ditions of climate variability and that will strengthen national adaptation f Leading a shift in investment toward cli- plans and build a foundation for have even greater value in considering the mate-friendly technologies, particularly effective coordination in partner- compounding effects of long-term climate for energy and transport, and catalyzing ship with the UNDP. change. For instance, a number of vulner- a scale-up of such investments; help- ability assessments and country risk profiles 38 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION Island countries) and middle-income coun- Francis Dobbs/World Bank Photo Library tries (many have been identified as hot spots for disasters and effects of climate change). An EAP strategic document on adaptation and climate change will focus on supporting increased access to technical assistance to as- sess vulnerability and risks, as well as access to new technologies for adaptation. It should be completed in 2008. References Hay, J.E., N. Mimura, J. Campbell, S. Fi- fita, K. Koshy, R.F. McLean, T. Nakalevu, P. Nunn, and N. de Wet. 2003. Climate Vari- ability and Change and Sea-level Rise in the Pacific Islands Region. Apia, Samoa: South Pacific Regional Environmental Program. Cambodia IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Fourth Assessment Report. have been completed or are under way for are generally isolated and poor; have Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. countries in the EAP Region (World Bank low human resource capacity, low per 2000, 2006, 2007) that will form the basis capita incomes, low borrowing capacity; UNEP (United Nations Environment Pro- for future adaptation work. and are highly dependent on aid. They gramme). 2006. Marine and Coastal Eco- require financing, technical assistance, systems and Human Well-Being: A Synthesis A climate change and disaster risk manage- and technologies for assessing risk and Report Based on the Findings of the Millen- ment strategy is being developed for Papua solutions development. nium Ecosystem Assessment. Nairobi: UNEP. New Guinea. Risk profiles are also being 2. Middle-income countries that are developed for a number of Pacific countries expected to be particularly affected. World Bank. 2000. Cities, Seas, and Storms: as part of the work program of the Global These countries are characterized by Managing Change in Pacific Island Econo- Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recov- several climate-related impacts. They mies, Adapting to Climate Change. Washing- ery. These will incorporate the risks posed by are exposed to flooding, cyclones, and ton, DC: World Bank. climate change. A regional study covering drought, affecting slum dwellers in EAP and SAR has also been launched—in coastal cities, food security, health, and World Bank. 2006. Not If But When: Adapt- collaboration with the Japan Bank for Inter- transportation. However, these coun- ing to Natural Hazards in the Pacific Islands national Cooperation and Asian Develop- tries possess higher potential to absorb Region—A Policy Note. World Bank Work- ment Bank—on the impacts of sea level rise some part of their risk and impacts. The ing Paper. Report No. 35194. Washington, on coastal cities, with a focus on Bangkok emerging strategies will reflect this with DC: World Bank. and Jakarta. different policies on a country-by-coun- try basis. Ongoing pilot studies in China As a result, the current EAP Region’s ap- and the Philippines will contribute to proach to adaptation is to focus on highly the development of these strategies. This article was prepared by Giovanna Dore, gdore@ vulnerable countries with little capacity to worldbank.org, and Priya Mathur, pmathur@ adapt. These generally fall into two main Furthermore, the National Adaptation worldbank.org, of the East Asia Rural Development, categories: Programmes of Action have demonstrated Natural Resources and Environment Unit and by Federica Ranghieri, franghieri@worldbank.org, and success in responding to urgent and imme- Neeraj Prasad, nprasad@worldbank.org, of the East 1. Low-lying Pacific Island countries, such diate needs of both highly vulnerable least- Asia Operations and Policy Unit. EAP website: www. as Kiribati and Vanuatu. These nations developed countries (including some Pacific worldbank.org/eapenvironment. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 39 Europe and Central Asia Region Russian Federation Estonia Latvia Russian Fed. Lithuania Poland Belarus Czech Rep. Ukraine Slovak Rep. Kazakhstan Moldova Slovenia Hungary Romania Croatia Bosnia and Serbia Herzegovina Kos. Bulgaria Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Rep. FYR Armenia Azerbaijan Montenegro Macedonia Turkmenistan Turkey Tajikistan Albania Cyprus IBRD 35099 JANUARY 2008 Ronald Hoffer A LBANIA T o many citizens in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) already coping with water scarcity. In addition, the increased risks region, climate change is not just a problem of the future, of storms, intense rainfall, and flash floods pose new threats to the but one of the present. Following hot summers in 2003 region’s densely populated floodplains. and 2006, the summer of 2007 was particularly severe in southeastern Europe, causing widespread blackouts, forest fires, The increasing frequency and severity of such events is often linked and several hundred deaths (see Box, top of next page). Only two to climate change by citizens in the more than half of ECA’s clients months later, Slovenia—once an ECA client and now a funding that are members/candidates or acceding countries of the Euro- partner—faced quite a different challenge, when devastating storms pean Union (EU). Those still borrowing from the Bank or that caused severe flooding that led to six deaths and estimated damage have active projects include EU member states Lithuania, Latvia, of over 200 million euros (0.3 percent of GDP). Poland, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria; EU candidate and potential countries include the former Yugoslav Such events have heightened concerns in the region regarding the Republic of Macedonia, Croatia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, impacts of climate change. In response, the European Commis- Montenegro, and Albania. Kosovo (under UN Security Council sion (EC) has placed climate change at the forefront of the Com- Resolution 1244) is a current grant recipient. munity-wide political agenda. For example, a 2007 EC “Green Awareness Beyond the EU Paper—Adapting to Climate Change in Europe; Options for EU Action”—found that southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin were particularly vulnerable areas due to the combined ef- Awareness among citizens in countries outside the EU sphere is more fects of temperature increases and reduced precipitation in areas diverse but generally highest among the scientific community and 40 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA REGION immediate disaster response rather than Heat Wave of 2007 Devastates Europe longer-term problems. Model simulations On July 24, 2007, Reuters news service1 reported that: “Twelve Romanians died and of regional climate change (Hovsepyan and firefighters, soldiers and volunteers battled wildfires across southeastern Europe on Melkonyan 2007) by the Armenian national Tuesday as a heat wave broke temperature records across the Balkans. There was a hydromet service (supported in part by the blackout in many parts of Macedonia and some parts of Albania and northern Greece World Bank) suggest both positive and nega- as power lines struggled to cope with temperatures of over 40 degrees Celsius and an tive consequences. Productive agriculture increased load from air conditioners. In Romania, new deaths pushed the toll from the will be able to extend to higher elevations heat wave up to 30. After forecasts of easing temperatures, health officials were pre- and growing seasons will be longer. Increases paring to downgrade emergency measures from ‘Code Red,’ although in some parts in flooding, however, could require a major of the country temperatures soared to an all-time record of over 44 degrees Celsius (111.2 Fahrenheit). Some 19,000 Romanians have been admitted to hospitals in the re- expansion in water storage reservoirs by as gion’s second devastating hot spell this year. More than 35 people died in Romania, much as 2 billion cubic meters for effective Turkey and Greece in June when the mercury shot up to 46 degrees Celsius. Serbia bat- flood regulation. More sporadic rainfall re- tled 50 forest fires on what meteorologists predicted would be the hottest day of the charge will require improvements in national year, with the temperature topping 43 degrees Celsius….” water management strategies and improve- That same day, the BBC reported that over 500 people had died in Hungary from the ments in water efficiency. heat wave in the previous week.2 Water resource management issues in Cen- Notes: 1. http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL2477782520070724?sp=true. tral Asia are already a core element in re- 2. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6914490.stm. gional dialogue. Water specialists know that despite some recent successes—such as the environmental civil society organizations. for warmer, wetter climates continue. From World Bank-supported project to restore the For example, the Russian Hydrometeoro- 1991 to 2006, the number of hazardous Northern Aral Sea—melting glaciers and logical Service (Roshydromet) is projecting events in Russia more than doubled, increas- reduced snowpack due to warming trends a significant increase in hazardous events ing from 153 to 387 events annually. over the next few decades will exacerbate (floods, snow avalanches and mudflows, water scarcity issues, especially for irrigated hurricanes, squalls, etc.) as recent tendencies Roshydromet is paying particular attention agriculture. Plans for extensive hydropower to the likely continuation of this trend, both development in Tajikistan to serve major in the shorter term (to 2015) and longer term regional power needs, to cite another exam- Ronald Hoffer (to 2050). Risks are expected to be highest ple, will also need to take these factors into in the northern Caucasus and Volga-Vyatka account. economic zones, Sahkalin, Kemerovo, Uly- anovsk, Penza, Ivanovo, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Kaliningrad, and the Republic of Tatarstan. Responses by The most vulnerable sectors are considered to be water supply, hydropower, pipeline Partner Countries transport, river transport, the safety and on Adaptation maintenance of buildings and structures, The European Union has an ambitious pro- and public health. The energy sector may gram of research. While emphasizing Euro- benefit due to a reduction in the heating sea- pean problems and solutions, the EU also son and increased energy saving programs. looks at developing-country and global ap- The agriculture sector also may benefit as a proaches to both mitigation and adaptation. result of improved crop growing conditions This is increasing understanding of problems and increased productivity. and solutions, while also spurring significant policy debate on the response to adaptation Countries in the southern Caucasus—such between the European Commission and EU as Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—also member states, candidates, and acceding are faced with more severe flooding events. Turkey countries. National concern has generally focused on ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 41 Ronald Hoffer Turkey Active since the 1980s, the EU research On the policy side, the European Commis- tive and agricultural policies) and responses program on climate change has increased in sion released a Green Paper in June 2007 in process (such as the Floods Directive) to recent years and played an important role that looks at options for an EU response on eliminate disincentives and conflicts with in providing scientific information to the adaptation to climate change (CEC 2007). sound adaptation policies. Financial incen- Fourth IPCC report. Under the 6th Frame- The paper lays out the technical bases for tives from the EU for encouraging “soft” ad- work Programme, over 45 research projects action, raises key questions for the public aptation measures to reduce impacts, which were launched in seven areas: (1) carbon (to be covered in four public meetings and will help in both the short and longer term, and nitrogen cycle sources and sinks, (2) through the Internet), and sets the stage for are also likely in the years ahead. atmospheric pollutants and their regional a proposed policy response in a White Paper impacts, (3) stratospheric ozone and climate World Bank planned for November 2008. interactions, (4) climate dynamics and vari- ability, (5) prediction of climate change and its impacts, (6) adaptation and mitigation Ongoing research and policy analyses, which will support the White Paper, were discussed Engagement on strategies, and (7) observing and forecasting systems. Technical meetings are held among at a November 2007 International Sym- Adaptation posium on Future Climate, Impacts, and and across thematic research teams to help ECA is already including climate consider- Responses held in Brussels. Based on those foster information sharing. The 7th Frame- ations in its investment lending portfolio. work Programme announced in December discussions, it seems likely that the EU pol- Watershed projects under way in Armenia, 2006 allocates 1.9 billion euros for climate icy response will first target the review and Tajikistan, and Turkey, for example, include change and the environment over the next adjustment of existing community-wide leg- support for farming and forest systems six years. islation (such as the Water Framework Direc- adapted to drought. Irrigation and water 42 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA REGION management projects under way in Albania, tion response. A pilot program in southeast- some ECA countries are on the way to be- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, ern Europe (SEE) (in cooperation with the coming completely dysfunctional. This has Kyrgyzstan, Romania, Tajikistan, and Uz- United Nations and other organizations) has very serious implications for both short-term bekistan support improved water manage- recently been completed that is paving the forecasting (where up to 35 percent of flood ment and conservation approaches, which way for a longer-term, phased program on damage can be mitigated if a flood warning will further ensure climate resilience. Flood Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation. is issued in reasonable time), mid-term cli- management investments in Poland, Roma- The objectives of this effort would be to ex- mate projections (for example, for designing nia, and Serbia help mitigate the effects of tend financing to countries in and beyond new hydropower plants), and longer-term extreme weather events, which are expected SEE to implement activities to promote di- climate work. The Bank is currently lending to increase in the decades ahead. saster risk reduction and adaptation. A flexi- to Russia to improve its hydrometeorologi- ble approach is envisaged with two elements: cal services and is expanding both its analyti- The ECA Region’s strategic goal on climate (1) regional projects such as meteorological cal support and proposed lending to other change is to assist partner countries in meet- and flood early warning systems and regional countries. ing their obligations to mitigate the global insurance pools and (2) country-specific in- impacts of climate change and expand na- vestments such as emergency management, In mid-fiscal year 2008, the ECA Region tional adaptation planning and investments flood control, strengthening enforcement of launched an ambitious program of sector to reduce impacts in vulnerable locales and land use plans, and development controls. work to advance the dialogue on medium- sectors. The Region is focusing its efforts and longer-term adaptation needs. This will on three client groups. First, in the case of Another “win-win” activity is the strength- lead to a region-wide aggregation of under- EU members and candidate and acceding ening of national weather and climate standing in key sectors and regions in Spring countries, the Bank will support their ef- forecasting services. A recent review found 2008 and a series of targeted subregional forts to respond to new Community-wide that 20 to 30 years ago, weather forecasting analyses in vulnerable sectors over fiscal years legislation and initiatives as well as any and overall provision of hydromet services 2008–09. The approach to the latter includes national initiatives. This work will expand in many ECA countries were at the lead- (a) reviewing observed impacts in targeted as the EU’s policy position is presented in ing edge of world capacity. But the status areas, (b) aggregating and peer-reviewing November 2008 and as EU Council action of most weather services among the Bank’s existing forecasts of climate change in these on that paper is taken in early 2009. For ECA clients has deteriorated considerably in areas, (c) funding value-added downscaling the second group of clients outside of this the last two decades, mainly as a consequence models and sectoral impact assessments, (d) direct linkage to the EU, the Bank will help of persistent underfinancing. The scope of using these assessments to frame adaptation inform decision makers and the public on the accumulated problem is so great that options, (e) assessing institutional capac- emerging national adaptation planning and without massive modernization, networks in ity, (f ) engaging decision makers and stake- resilient infrastructure investments. Finally, holders, and (g) scaling up the assessments as in all Bank Regions, ECA staff must have for ECA-wide applications in fiscal years Ronald Hoffer the state-of-the art tools to improve advice 2009–10. and facilitate financing of “climate-proofed” investments. Selected References While there is global consensus on the im- CEC (Commission of the European Commu- portance of addressing climate change, the nities). 2007. Adapting to Climate Change in many uncertainties on actual impacts by EuropeOptions for EU Action. Green Paper. sector, by location, and over time presents Brussels: EC. an understandable barrier to action in some Hovsepyan, A., and H. Melkonyan. 2007. Mod- cases. A number of ECA clients are consid- el Simulations of Climate Change over the South ering what action can be taken in the very Caucasus during 21st Century. Washington, DC: near term to improve national disaster risk World Bank. reduction and adaptation. For example, if flooding is already more severe and more This article was prepared by Ron Hoffer, rhoffer@ frequent, then improvements in disaster risk worldbank.org, of the Europe and Central Asia reduction and management in the next few Poland Sustainable Development Sector Unit. ECA website: years set the stage for longer-term adapta- www.worldbank.org/eca/environment. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 43 Latin America and Caribbean Region The Bahamas Haiti Jamaica Dominican Rep. St. Kitts and Nevis Mexico Antigua and Barbuda Belize Dominica St. Lucia Guatemala Honduras Barbados El Salvador R.B. de St. Vincent and the Grenadines Nicaragua Venezuela Grenada Trinidad and Tobago Costa Rica Panama Guyana Colombia Suriname Ecuador Peru Brazil Bolivia Paraguay Chile Uruguay Argentina Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) A dispute concerning sovereignty over the islands exists between Argentina which claims this sovereignty and the U.K. which IBRD 31564R JANUARY 2007 administers the islands. Heriberto Rodriquez M EXICO O ne of the most urgent development issues for Latin tion, storm surge, and other coastal hazards, thus threatening the American and Caribbean countries is to better under- livelihoods of island communities. Sea level rise and warmer sea- stand and prepare for the impacts of global climate surface temperatures are linked to coral bleaching, which has af- change. Accounting for about 6 percent of global fected more than 80 percent of coral reefs in the Caribbean, accord- emissions, Latin America as a region is not a major ing to a 2006 NOAA assessment. The result is a serious degradation contributor of greenhouse gas emissions, despite the presence of of the role of coral reefs in protecting coastal areas against storm rapidly growing economies and industries such as in Brazil and Mexico; however, as a result of climate change, the region is expect- Sebastian Martin Scholz ed to suffer irreversible impacts to key ecosystems and the services they provide. Impacts of Climate Change The most certain effect is sea level rise resulting from ice melting in the poles and thermal expansion of the oceans. The Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that by 2100, sea levels could rise by between 20 and 60 cm. This would have a dramatic direct impact in low-lying areas in deltaic regions and the Trinidad and Tobago Caribbean islands. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate inunda- 44 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN REGION surges, functioning as marine nurseries criti- of tropical forest by savanna in eastern analysis. However, recent data (Ruiz and oth- cal to Caribbean biodiversity and fisheries, Amazonia. The Amazon rain forest plays a ers 2007) suggest that significant changes in and attracting tourism. In addition, sea level critical role in global climate, locking away atmospheric stability, increases in sea-surface rise may contribute to salinization of aquifers vast quantities of carbon and serving as an temperature, and changes in local vegetation and hence affect the availability of drinking “engine” of global climate circulation that cover have altered the circulation patterns and irrigation water resources. affects rainfall in places as far away as Europe responsible for producing and moving water and Central Asia. Moisture injected by the vapor to the region and could fundamentally Changes in precipitation and the rapid melt- Amazon ecosystem into the atmosphere also modify the ecology of the páramos. These ing of glaciers are projected to significantly plays a critical role in the region’s precipita- changes have likely contributed to the disap- affect water availability for human consump- tion patterns. In drier areas, climate change pearance of some high-altitude water bodies tion, agriculture, and energy generation. For is expected to lead to salinization and de- and increased the occurrence of natural and example, the reduction of glacier mass in the sertification of agricultural land. Moreover, human-induced fires. These fragile ecosys- Andes during recent decades is well-docu- productivity of some important crops is pro- tems are not only home to globally unique mented and accelerating. Between 1970 jected to decrease and livestock productivity biodiversity, but they also play an important and 2002, the area covered by glaciers in the to decline, with adverse consequences for role in the water supply of some major urban tropical Andes (Bolivia through Venezuela) food security. centers such as Bogotá and Quito. declined by about 15 percent. Glaciers at al- titudes below 5,500 meters could disappear Additional losses from land conversion. Increased exposure to tropical diseases. Co- by 2015. Retreating glaciers will dramati- Compounding the impacts of climate change lombia has experienced a gradual increase cally reduce flows in dry seasons and could on the Amazon there are additional losses in outbreaks of tropical disease, particularly produce flooding in wet seasons. from land conversion. While fossil fuels ac- malaria, that may be an indicator of future count for two-thirds of LAC’s emissions, a trends in parts of Latin America that are pro- Increase in extreme weather events. There solid 20 percent is accounted for by land use jected to have long-term increases in local is evidence indicating that global warming change. Over the past 15 years, the Latin temperature and precipitation. The strong is associated with increases in both weather America region has lost about 45,000 square correlation between precipitation and ma- variability and the incidence and severity kilometers of forest per year—777,000 laria and between temperature and dengue, of extreme weather events. Recent studies square kilometers since 1990. LAC accounts documented in a 1997 study of 715 munici- (Hoyos and others 2006; Webster and Curry for slightly more than 50 percent of global palities in Colombia (Blanco and Hernández 2006) show a trend toward intensification of annual deforestation. Most of the deforesta- 2007), suggests that these and other diseases hurricanes in the Caribbean, which will have tion has taken place in Amazonia, with Bra- may be more prevalent in the region as a re- significant impacts on regional ecosystems, zil accounting for 60 percent of lost forest populations, infrastructure, and economies. areas in the region since 1990. sult of climate change. The occurrence of extreme weather events from 2000–05 was almost 2.5 times higher Risk of significant biodiversity loss. There is a Vulnerability of energy supply. Latin Ameri- than during the 1970–99 period, including significant risk of species extinction in many ca relies heavily on clean hydroelectric power a number of unusual occurrences. For exam- areas of tropical Latin America. For example, to generate electricity. The share of this ple, in 2004 Brazil was hit by the first hur- an increase in sea-surface temperature due to source is about 60 percent of electricity pro- ricane ever observed in the South Atlantic. climate change is projected to have adverse duction, more than three times higher than Similarly, in 2007 Buenos Aires saw snow for effects on Mesoamerican coral reefs, and the next region. Given the region’s depen- the first time in 89 years. cause shifts in the location of southeast Pa- dence on hydroelectric power, the extent to cific fish stocks. Similarly, with higher tem- which climate change will affect hydrology Risk of Amazon dieback. One of the most peratures, increased invasion by non-native and potentially reduce hydropower poten- significant projected consequences of cli- species is expected to occur, particularly in tial is of critical importance to the region’s mate change is its impact on the ecosystem middle- and high-latitude islands. economic growth. Because of the region’s integrity of the Amazon basin. Temperature high dependence on hydropower, it is criti- increases and associated changes—including Impact on páramos. The effect of climate cal to “climate proof ” its energy production, decreases in soil water, disruption in precipi- change on Andean páramos (unique moun- for example, through design of hydropower tation cycles, and increased wildfires—are tain ecosystems of mixed grasslands, shrub- installations taking into account more vari- projected to lead to a gradual replacement lands, bogs, and lakes) requires further able as well as changing average flows, and ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 45 through moving toward a greater mix of to document trends in climate impacts in to implement specific adaptation measures clean energy sources. the region. It has supported further capacity in the health sector, mountain habitats, and building by transferring project management coastal zones. to the regional Caribbean Community Cli- Highlights from LAC mate Change Center, which is responsible West Indies—Implementation of Adap- for guiding and implementing CARICOM’s tation Measures in Coastal Zones. This Portfolio climate change strategy and designing and proposing projects. This center has installed project supports efforts by Dominica, Saint Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines The LAC Region has a large adaptation port- a coral reef early warning system to moni- to implement integrated, pilot adaptation folio, with seven active projects addressing tor conditions that might lead to coral reef measures that address the impacts of climate some of the most critical impacts identified bleaching. change on the natural resource base, with a by the scientific community. Development focus on biodiversity and land degradation of this portfolio has been guided by (a) seek- Colombia—Integrated National Adapta- along coastal and near-coastal areas. The ing to address critical impacts caused by sci- tion Program. This program is supporting project is being implemented by the Carib- entifically documented trends such as glacier Colombia’s efforts to define and implement bean Community Climate Change Center, retreat and coral reef bleaching and (b) using specific adaptation measures and policy op- now widely recognized in the region as a an approach based on the projected impacts tions on a pilot basis to address anticipated source of expertise on climate issues in the of climate change on ecosystems and the ser- impacts from climate change. These efforts vices they provide. are focused on high-mountain ecosystems Caribbean. and insular areas, as well as human health Andes—Adaptation to the Impact of Rapid The Bank’s regional adaptation work, sum- concerns related to malaria and dengue (al- most half of Colombia’s population lives in Glacier Retreat in the Tropical Andes. This marized below, has been strategically focused on responding to impacts on key ecosystems. areas where an increase of 2° Celsius in mean project, currently under preparation, will The identification of these impacts is being temperature is likely to result in significantly implement adaptation measures to address supported by key observation networks, greater exposure to these diseases). Impacts the anticipated consequences of catastrophic monitoring coral systems, sea level rise, sea- in the Caribbean and Pacific coastal areas glacier retreat induced by climate change. surface temperature, and glacier dynamics. are also a major concern; vulnerable infra- This is expected to be achieved by (a) sup- These activities are being complemented structure, cities, and ecosystems could be porting the detailed design of selected adap- through the application of Earth Simulator at risk from higher sea levels, increased sea- tation measures, (b) implementing regional runs to model future climate in Latin Amer- surface temperatures, and more intense and and strategic adaptation pilots to target key ica. In collaboration with the Bank, this frequent extreme weather events. The proj- impacts from rapid glacier retreat on selected modeling of future climate scenarios is being ect, currently in its second year, has begun basins, and (c) supporting continued obser- undertaken under a pioneering partnership with the Meteorological Research Institute Sebastian Martin Scholz of Japan, the Mexican National Institute of Ecology, the Colombian Institute of Envi- ronmental and Meteorological Studies, the Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology, the Ecuadorian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, and the Bolivian Institute of Hydraulics and Hydrology. Caribbean—Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change. Now in its third year, this project is helping internalize climate change considerations into decision making and sectoral planning among members of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), as Colombia well as expanding the monitoring network 46 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN REGION vation and assessment of glacier retreat and Sebastian Martin Scholz its associated impacts on the region. Mexico—Adaptation to Climate Impacts in the Gulf of Mexico Wetlands. Also under preparation, this project is expected to re- duce vulnerability to the anticipated impacts of climate change on the country’s water resources, with a primary focus on coastal wetlands and associated inland basins. The project aims to identify national policies to address these impacts at the national level, to assess current and anticipated effects of cli- mate change on the integrity and stability of the Gulf of Mexico wetlands, and to imple- ment pilot adaptation measures to protect environmental services from the impacts of climate change. A Regional Approach to Climate Change In light of the significant and potentially ir- reversible impacts from climate change, the Bank’s Latin America and Caribbean Region has pioneered analytical work and pilot ad- Peru aptation projects for several years. This year’s groundbreaking regional flagship study looks gation, while in most cases helping countries Ruiz, Daniel, Hernán Alonso Moreno, at the relevance of climate change concerns adapt to the effects of climate change. Criti- María Elena Gutiérrez, and Paula Andrea in the LAC context and will contribute to cal to this will be to help countries secure Zapata. 2007. Changing Climate and Endan- the policy debate regarding the implementa- financing for their adaptation needs through gered High Mountain Ecosystems in Colombia. tion of mitigation and adaptation interven- Exploratory analysis of changes in climatic a mix of financing instruments. tions in specific country contexts. Other conditions—Case study: Los Nevados Natu- analytical work includes low-carbon stud- ral Park, Andean Central Mountain Range. ies for Brazil and Mexico and a landmark References modeling study of the projected impacts of Webster, P.J., and J.A. Curry. 2006. Climate Amazon dieback. Blanco, Javier T., and Diana Hernández. Impacts and Adaptation Responses in Latin 2007. The Costs of Climate Change in Tropi- America—A Glimpse into the Near Future. LAC’s approach is to strengthen the institu- cal Vector-Borne Diseases—A Case Study of Written composite version of papers deliv- tional capacity of regional agencies and na- Malaria and Dengue in Colombia. Report to ered at the World Bank’s Panel on “Climate tional governments to (a) formulate climate Impacts and Adaptation Responses in Latin World Bank. change policies, standards, and guidelines, America,” November 7, 2006. including the planning, management, and Hoyos, C. D., P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, monitoring of these policies and (b) support This article was prepared by Walter Vergara, the transfer of global best practices and strat- and J. A. Curry. 2006. “Deconvolution of wvergara@worldbank.org, and John D. Nash, egies in vulnerability assessment, adaptation, the Factors Contributing to the Increase in jnash1@worldbank.org, with inputs by Angela Global Hurricane Intensity.” Science Express Armstrong and Jocelyne Albert, of the Environment and mitigation. The analytical work currently and Social Sustainable Development Department under way will determine the region’s relative 312: 94–97. of the Latin America and Caribbean Region. LCR priorities—in some cases focusing on miti- website: www.worldbank.org/lacenvironment. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 47 Middle East and North Africa Region Syrian Lebanon A.R. Malta Tunisia Iraq I.R. Morocco West Bank and Gaza of Iran Jordan Algeria Kuwait Arab Libya Rep. of Bahrain Egypt Qatar U.A.E. Saudi an Om Arabia Rep. of Yemen Djibouti IBRD 31565R JANUARY 2008 J.B. Collier YEMEN A mong the world’s regions, the Middle East and North Af- tional knowledge. This could prove an important contribution to rica (MENA) is especially vulnerable to climate change. the effort to address climate change globally. It is one of the world’s driest, most water-scarce regions, Climate Change in MENA depends on climate-sensitive agriculture, and has a large share of its population and economic activity in flood- prone urban coastal zones. In addition, climate-induced resource High average temperatures and low precipitation levels are impor- scarcity could further tensions in the region’s conflict-ridden areas, tant physical constraints to the habitability of the Middle East and potentially escalating violence and political turmoil even beyond North Africa region, forcing those living there to find adaptive the region’s boundaries. strategies to cope with the conditions. Climate change is putting additional stress on the region’s marginal environment. For much On the other hand, societies of this region have had to deal with of the region, the climate is predicted to become even hotter and water scarcity and high temperatures for thousands of years, and drier, according to recent scientific assessments (IPCC 2007). have over time developed adaptive mechanisms to cope with these challenges, ranging from large-scale water management to drought- Higher temperatures and reduced precipitation will increase the resistant crops selection. Furthermore, some areas of the world are occurrence of droughts, an effect that is already materializing in the expected to experience changes that will render their climate in- Maghreb. Climate change will also require a more severe adjust- creasingly arid. Thus the MENA region, where adaptation to such ment in the management of the region’s water resources than any conditions has already taken place and various strategies have been other region, since over three-quarters of MENA’s water resources tried and tested, is a valuable repository of traditional and institu- are already being exploited for human uses. 48 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION Global models predict sea levels rising from tion patterns could damage strategic sectors infrastructure, as well as incalculable losses about 0.1 to 0.3 meters by 2050 and from such as tourism or others with growth po- of historic and cultural assets. The region’s about 0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100 (Dasgupta tential such as high value-added agriculture. urban areas also will be adversely affected and others 2007). For MENA, the social, The combination of such impacts could slow by heat waves, water scarcity and decreasing economic, and ecological impacts are ex- down the reform process in governance and water quality, and worsening air quality. In pected to be relatively higher compared to public sector management, discourage trade turn, these direct impacts could affect migra- the rest of the world. Low-lying coastal areas and foreign investments, and ultimately off- tion flows, in and out of urban areas. in Tunisia, Qatar, Libya, UAE, Kuwait, and set the growth benefits generated by high oil How the Bank particularly Egypt are at special risk. prices. It is estimated that an additional 80–100 mil- lion people will be exposed by 2025 to water Priorities for MENA Can Help in Climate Change stress, putting further pressure on ground- The Bank has a key role to play in inte- water, which is currently being extracted grating adaptation into the region’s regu- in most areas beyond the aquifers’ recharge Adaptation lar development effort, strengthening the knowledge base, and promoting partner- potential. In addition, agricultural yields, In terms of adaptation, the main regional ships and regional cooperation. The Bank is especially in rainfed areas, are expected to challenges are in water resource manage- currently strengthening existing initiatives fluctuate more widely, ultimately falling to a ment, agriculture and rural development, that support adaptation to climate change significantly lower long-term average. In ur- urban development, and other cross-cutting and is in the process of developing plans for ban areas in North Africa, a temperature in- issues. Climate change also could add a new additional, innovative action, as well as plans crease of 1–3º C could expose 6–25 million challenge in the region’s efforts to create new to adopt suitable tools to ensure that all of its people to coastal flooding. In addition, heat jobs and to address poverty, which currently projects are “climate-proofed”—that is, they waves, an increased “heat island effect,” wa- affects about 20 percent of the total popu- are not designed, sited, or implemented in ter scarcity, decreasing water quality, worsen- lation, equal to 59 million people (using a ways that render them vulnerable to climate ing air quality, and ground ozone formation poverty line of $2 per capita per day for a change impacts. are likely to lead to an overall worsening of largely middle-income region) (Iqbal 2006). public health and, more generally, to wors- ening living conditions. Partnerships. Successfully tackling climate Agriculture. In the agricultural sector, cli- change will depend significantly on the abil- mate change could accelerate desertification, ity to promote consensus on the need to act Impacts of Climate reduce yields and increase their volatility and to support the growth in institutional (especially in cereals), threaten rural jobs, in- Change on Regional crease the fiscal burden of government inter- Development vention in support of the sector, and thwart Pier Francesco Mantovani efforts to improve access to foreign markets Notwithstanding its recent impressive eco- for high-value crops. nomic performance, largely driven by the oil boom, the region faces a number of persistent Urban areas. About 167 million people— challenges to its longer-term development 56 percent of the region’s total population of prospects, including high unemployment, 298 million—live in cities, and 63 million in limited access to export markets, social ex- cities of 1 million and more. The cities of the clusion, and weak public governance. region are the heart of all social, cultural, and political life and are the hub of all economic While several countries in the region have activities. Climate change poses many chal- embarked on ambitious reform processes to lenges to the region’s cities. Rising sea level tackle such challenges, much of the progress could affect 43 port cities—24 in the Middle could be jeopardized by climate change. East and 19 in North Africa. For example, sea Income and employment could be lost to level rise is expected to heavily impact Alex- more frequent droughts in rural areas and to andria, Egypt. A 0.5-meter rise would leave floods and sea surges in urban and coastal more than 2 million people displaced, with Morocco areas. Changes in temperature and precipita- $35 billion in losses in land, property, and ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 49 and technical capacity. To achieve these objectives, the Bank will establish a region- Water Management and Adaptation wide program of cooperation and technical to Climate Change in Morocco assistance on climate change adaptation and The Oum Er Rbia River basin contains half of Morocco’s public irrigated agriculture and mitigation, building on the remarkable suc- produces 60 percent of its sugar beets, 40 percent of its olives, and 40 percent of its cess of the Mediterranean Environmental milk. For the past decade, lower-than-predicted rainfall patterns have reduced avail- Technical Assistance Program (METAP) in able irrigation water to about half the designed volume. As a result, farmers are sup- advancing the environmental agenda in the plementing surface water by pumping groundwater, and aquifers are falling by up to region. 5 meters per year. Uncertainty about irrigation water supplies is a major factor deter- ring farmers from switching to higher-value crops, and tensions over access to water The Bank has started piloting a comprehen- resources are rising. sive approach to support adaptation in the The Moroccan government is working with the Bank to design ways to make irrigation region through a combination of analytical in the basin more sustainable and more profitable. The authorities will commit to pro- and advisory (AAA) work and project-based viding a fixed amount of water to the farmers on an on-demand basis, so they have investment. In Morocco, the impacts of confidence that water will be available at exactly the time they require it. The farmers climate change are being analyzed through will have to commit to not exceeding a fixed quantity of water consumption and will three separate studies on agriculture, water be sanctioned if they exceed this limit. The project will subsidize localized irrigation resource management, and urban develop- equipment (drip, micro-sprinklers, etc.), promote private investment in post-harvest ment. In addition, support to water manage- infrastructure, and help farmers link to domestic and international markets. ment in irrigation is being promoted in the Oum Er Rbia basin as a strategy to cope with with neighboring countries. In fact, climate base (water, soil) might lead to renewed climate change (see Box, top right). Similar- change is already affecting livelihoods in social tensions and conflict. Third, climate ly, in Yemen, the Bank has started AAA work many communities in these countries. change could also impede efforts to advance to analyze climate change impacts on water prospects for women, thus delaying progress management. A project that will promote Climate change is also expected to add new on gender issues of particular significance agrobiodiversity to enhance resilience to cli- challenges to the social and political agenda, to the region. Finally, climate change could mate change on rainfed lands is in prepara- spanning across class boundaries and admin- put additional stress on the region’s already tion (see Box, bottom right). istrative jurisdictions, and affecting rural and fragile political institutions and systems of urban spaces alike. First, worsening of living governance. Issues and Risks conditions in rural areas could affect internal and international migratory flows. Second, The challenge for governments and devel- Ultimately, the success of climate change the impoverishment of the natural resource opment partners is to mobilize sufficient initiatives depends on client commitment to action. In some countries, particularly the region’s International Development As- Agriculture and Adaptation sociation (IDA) countries and those affected to a Changing Climate in Yemen by conflict, the prospects for action are con- In Yemen, the poorest economy among the Arabian Peninsula countries, agriculture strained by short-term issues. The region’s contributes more than 15 percent to GDP and employs more than 55 percent of the ec- two IDA countries are particularly vulner- onomically active population. Many of the poor derive their livelihoods and incomes able to climate change impacts—Djibouti, exclusively from agriculture and agriculture-related activities. Climate change is a real which is threatened by floods and sea-level concern for Yemen, particularly should the frequency of precipitation events diminish, rise, and Yemen, where climate change could putting rainfed agriculture in peril. affect rainfed agriculture, fisheries, and In the Yemen highlands, farmers have long traditions of agrobiodiversity farming prac- groundwater resources. tices and traditional knowledge. The Bank is currently working on coping strategies for adaptation to climate change for highland farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture. In parts of the region affected by conflict These strategies include the conservation and utilization of biodiversity important to (Iraq, West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon), cli- agriculture (particularly the local landraces and their wild relatives) and associated local mate change could appear as a longer-term traditional knowledge. The project will emphasize the conservation of agrobiodiversity concern when compared to the present need and developing a range of coping mechanisms using predictive climate modeling. to tame internal violence or end hostilities 50 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION Julia Bucknall Morocco resources to act promptly, thereby reducing minimize their vulnerability to climate the most vulnerable social groups. The the cost of adaptation by minimizing climate change. In addition, enhancing climate World Bank will continue to work with change impacts, especially on the more vul- resilience is likely to require scaling up its MENA clients to identify, analyze, nerable social groups. planned infrastructure investment in key and implement these reform options sectors such as water resources or urban by mobilizing global knowledge and by Directions for the development, which in turn will neces- providing targeted financial support. sitate additional resource mobilization Future from governments, the private sector, and the donor community, including References An increasing level of awareness is building the World Bank. Dasgupta, S, B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheel- among all stakeholders in the region on the 2. Knowledge strengthening. Adequate er, and J. Yan. 2007. “The Impact of Sea Level significance of climate change, reflecting design of adaptation interventions will Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative both the global increase in sensitivity to require better knowledge on the timing, Analysis.” World Bank Policy Research Working and awareness of the climate change issue, location, and magnitude of impacts, as Paper 4136. Washington, DC: World Bank. as well as mounting concerns in the region well as identification of least-cost options about increasingly frequent droughts and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate to minimize such impacts. Building on looming water supply shortages. There is a Change). 2007. “Climate Change 2007: Impacts, the analytical work already under way general sense of the inevitability of assuming Adaptation, and Vulnerability.” In M.L. Parry, in Morocco, Tunisia, Djibouti, and O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, some kind of action, but questions remain Yemen, and drawing on experience and C.E. Hanson, eds., contribution of Working on establishing priorities and developing an accumulated in the rest of the world, Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the appropriate response. the Bank will expand its support to IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University enhancing the knowledge required for Press. There seem to be three broad areas of MENA to adapt to climate change. partnership where the World Bank and its 3. Policy reform. Significant progress in Iqbal, F. 2006. Sustaining Gains in Poverty Re- MENA counterparts can make a dent in the adaptation can be achieved by improv- duction and Human Development in the Middle adaptation agenda. ing the policy and incentive framework. East and North Africa. Washington, DC: World Fiscal reforms can encourage more Bank. 1. Infrastructure investment. The World efficient use of land, water, and energy Banks has an annual pipeline of some This article was prepared by Saliha Dobardzic, resources, thereby promoting their sdobardzic@worldbank.org, and Raffaello Cervigni, $1.1 billion over the next three years. allocation to more climate-resilient uses rcervigni@worldbank.org, of the Middle East and Projects will need to be sited, designed, and freeing up valuable public funds, North Africa Sustainable Development Unit with and implemented in ways that will which could be used for protecting inputs by Julia Bucknall and Kanta K. Rigaud. MNA website: www.worldbank.org/mna. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 51 South Asia Region Afghanistan Nepal Bhutan Pakistan Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Maldives IBRD 31566R JANUARY 2008 Will Davies N EPAL H igh levels of population density and poverty, coupled progress toward meeting critical national development goals. Rec- with low resilience to climate risks, make the South ognizing the development significance of promoting adaptation to Asia region (SAR) highly vulnerable to climate climate variability and climate change and dictated by government change. Livelihoods are heavily dependent on natural priorities, the World Bank’s engagement on adaptation in the re- resources across the region. Changes in the availabil- gion is rapidly strengthening. The Bank seeks to integrate climate ity of these resources, accentuated by climate risks, are expected risk management in sector strategies and programs through inno- to have far-reaching implications. These risks could undermine vation and reform. the gains made in poverty reduction and livelihoods and impede Temperature Projections for South Asia Region The Impacts of Climate Change Temperature anomalies with respect to 1901 to 1950 for the in the Region SAR land region for 1906 to SAR is home to the largest number of poor people that are at risk 2005 (black line) and as simu- lated (red envelope) by MMD from changes to climate and extreme weather events. Over 1 billion models incorporating known people reside in vulnerable landscapes and are exposed to the wide forcings; and as projected for ranging impacts of climate variability and change. Climate change 2001 to 2100 by MMD models for the A1B scenario (orange is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of natural di- envelope). sasters, such as storm surges, cyclones, floods, and droughts across Source: IPCC. 2007. Climate Change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Inter- the region, with substantial economic consequences. By 2100, the governmental Panel on Climate Change. 52 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 SOUTH ASIA REGION IPCC Fourth Assessment projects a median Sea level rise. Sea level rise due to climate the Millennium Development Goals, in- increase of 3.3 degrees Celsius in annual change is a serious threat to coastal areas in cluding those on poverty eradication, child mean temperature (Figure, bottom of previ- South Asia. Potential impacts include height- mortality, malaria and other diseases, and ous page) in the region and a median increase ened flood and submergence risks across environmental sustainability. In addition, of 11 percent in precipitation. Moreover, wa- the coastal zone, salinization of surface and the impacts of climate change will exacer- ter-related stresses from changes in precipita- groundwater, and morphological change, bate existing social and environmental prob- tion, recession of glaciers, and sea level rise such as erosion and wetland loss. Ground- lems and lead to possible migration within are likely to be the most critical concerns for water aquifers and coastal ecosystems could and across national borders. In sum, climate the region in terms of urgency and economic also be affected through increased saliniza- change is clearly not just an environmental consequence. The most significant impacts tion and pollution, threatening rural liveli- issue, but a multisectoral issue with severe are projected to affect agriculture, water re- hoods. The coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh socioeconomic implications for South Asia. sources and critical river basins, ecosystems, and the Maldives are particularly vulnerable The Role of the and natural resources. to sea level rise. Agriculture. Agriculture employs over 60 percent of the region’s labor force. The real Ecosystem and biodiversity impacts. South Asia contains numerous global biodiver- World Bank risk lies in the impacts on the monsoon sys- sity hotspots (e.g., Sundarbans) and World Adaptation to climate variability and climate tem on which much of the SAR rural econ- Heritage sites, which are home to some of change is an emerging area of interest and omy is reliant. Climate change will affect the rarest and most endangered species in cooperation between the Bank and govern- agricultural yields by altering the timing and the world. Human pressures, together with ments in the region. The Bank is combin- magnitude of water availability, temperature, changing hydrology, may impact the pro- ing climate change efforts with the broader soil moisture, atmospheric carbon concen- ductivity and resilience of these ecosystems. development and poverty reduction agenda tration, weeds, and pests. Regional models to foster more climate-resilient and sustain- project a 15 to 30 percent decline in the pro- As a result of these impacts, climate change able economies. To better mainstream adap- ductivity of most cereals and rice. Livestock could hamper the achievement of many of tation into existing and future development and fisheries may also be impacted. Water resources. The availability of freshwa- Impacts in the Himalayan Region ter in South Asia is highly seasonal; about 75 The ice mass over the percent of annual rainfall occurs during the Himalaya-Hindu Kush monsoon months. An increase in the variabil- (HHK) region is the third ity of precipitation, coupled with increases largest in the world and a in temperatures, will impact the hydrologic source of the nine largest rivers in Asia. It is home cycle, including the timing and magnitude to over 1.3 billion people of floods, droughts, sediment discharge, and and an important source drainage of river systems. Climate change is of water to the Ganges, In- predicted to increase both coastal and inland dus, and Brahmaputra riv- Changes in glacier cover in western Himalayas flooding, especially in Bangladesh. More- ers. In the last two decades, over, reduced freshwater availability during the ice mass has retreated faster than the world average (ranging from 0.3 to 1 m per low flow times will become a serious prob- annum) due to increasing temperatures. The expected changes will alter the timing lem. These risks will significantly impact ru- and rate of snow melt and have largely unknown consequences for agriculture and live- stock productivity, hydropower, ecosystems, and water supplies for population and in- ral economies, affecting irrigation, fisheries, dustrial centers. The uncertainty in supplies will be exacerbated by increased incidence navigation, energy, and household water use. of extreme events such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Finally, since many of the rivers in the region are shared transboundary systems, climate Because of the transboundary nature of the river systems, a regional approach based change will require international coordina- on international coordination and coordination will be necessary. The Bank is seeking tion and cooperation for both understand- to design cooperative adaptation projects focusing on water resource management. ing the nature of the challenges and devising Source: R. Singh and A. Prasad. 2007. “Changes in Himalayan Snow and Glacier Cover Between 1972 and 2000.” approaches for addressing them effectively. EOS, 88(33) 326. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 53 programs, the Bank has identified three key management and technical assistance, with Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, pillars in its regional climate change strategy a particular focus on India. However, future Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra for the South Asia Region. engagement in the region is actively picking Pradesh, and Orissa) and to improve smaller 1. Focusing on building climate resilience up to include adaptation projects or sector water bodies (Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, in the poorest and most vulnerable com- operations with adaptation-related compo- Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and West Bengal) munities and ecosystems, particularly in nents. In addition, ongoing sectoral projects are under way. Furthermore, to improve the rural economies that are more exposed on improved river basin planning, mod- productivity of water and land resources and to climate risks through stand-alone ernization of irrigated agriculture, capacity provide benefits to rural communities, sever- adaptation projects. building of water management institutions, al watershed projects are being implemented 2. Mainstreaming adaptation measures agricultural research and extension, water- (Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, and Karna- through sectoral operations that rein- shed management, and urban planning and taka). Nepal is initiating an Integrated Water force existing development strategies design are providing important co-benefits Resources Management Program to improve and recognize that sustainable eco- by building greater resilience to climate vari- water resources management and irrigation nomic growth and poverty reduction ability and risks. The Bank puts a priority on systems. Sri Lanka is also initiating a Dam are integral to minimizing the impacts strengthening existing programs that have Safety and Water Resources Management from climate change. already shown a strong client engagement Project to improve the performance of ag- 3. Strengthening the knowledge base of and demonstrated success on the ground, ing dams, strengthen hydro-climatological climate risks and related adaptation as well as on harmonizing efforts with other networks, and initiate systematic basin plan- responses through analytical work in development partners. Highlights from the ning. In Afghanistan, the Bank is supporting areas where significant information portfolio include: basin planning in the Kabul Basin through gaps exist and where the Bank has a the development of decision support systems comparative advantage. Improving natural disaster forecasting ca- and strengthening institutions. pacity. With Bank and the U.K. Department The broad aim is to help countries in the for International Development support, a Adaptation to droughts. The Bank has com- region to incorporate climate risk man- flood management information system is be- pleted two analytical studies in India and agement in the country planning process ing developed to support flood-prone areas is implementing a promising pilot activity and development programs, including the in the Indian state of Bihar. Furthermore, in Andhra Pradesh to build comprehensive strengthening of institutional mechanisms to a much-needed thrust to improve hydro- drought resilience through innovative tech- manage these risks. Scaling up the water re- climatological monitoring and related deci- niques and management approaches in ag- sources agenda, which plays a key role in the sion support system development is under riculture, natural resources management, region’s development, is a high priority. SAR way in 13 states and eight central agencies and institutional development. The pilot is governments are already facing the need for through the Hydrology-II project in India. complementing the World Bank-supported additional expenditures to develop climate To mitigate the risks and vulnerabilities Andhra Pradesh Rural Poverty Reduction and adaptation aspects of their various de- of the population to cyclones, the Bank is Project and establishing synergies with pro- velopment and infrastructure programs. In assisting the government of India in devel- grams, such as the government of India’s addition to building knowledge and capacity oping a National Cyclone Risk Mitigation National Rural Employment Guarantee in the region, the Bank expects to play a role Project. There are also projects in India and Scheme. Lessons and results from the pilot in finding financial mechanisms for adapta- the Maldives to help the region recover from are expected to be applicable to other arid tion in coordination with other development the devastating tsunami in 2004. regions of India and will be widely dissemi- partners. nated in order to build support and demand Water resources. A wide range of activities for wider replication. The India GEF Sus- in the water resources sector is helping the Highlights from the tainable Land Management Program, which region better adapt to existing climate vari- is under preparation, has considerable scope SAR Portfolio ability, a prerequisite to building capacity to adapt to future change. Specifically, in to upscale adaptation and environmental sustainability into agriculture. Activities that are planned or under way in India, a comprehensive study and technical South Asia respond directly or indirectly to assistance on groundwater management and Coastal zone management. The Bank is the multiple climate-related burdens faced multiple state projects to restructure and working with the federal government and by the region. A bulk of the ongoing adap- modernize irrigation systems, basin-level with three states in India to develop and tation portfolio has focused on knowledge planning, and management (for example, implement a strategic project relating to the 54 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 SOUTH ASIA REGION Adaptation — What Can Be Done in South Asia? An effective strategy to build climate resilience and ignite growth needs to take into account the comparative advantage of the region, resource constraints, and the impending changes brought about by climate. The exact policies and interventions will differ by location and circumstance. Initial assessments and knowledge management activities in the region emphasize the following overarching ap- proaches to address adaptation: • Better understand impacts. Improve the knowledge base of climate risks, vulnerability analysis, and operational implications of climate change over historical variability, higher-resolution impact studies, and coping strategies. The resultant changes in runoff—given changes in precipitation, temperature, and demands for major basins under various scenarios—need to be better understood to develop resilient adaptation strategies. Coastal areas, populations, and infrastructure at risk need to be mapped in detail. • Improve flexibility in natural resources management and agriculture. In addition to direct agricultural impacts of changes in climate vari- ability (and their cascading impacts on livelihoods, poverty, and hunger), the long-term suitability of areas for various crops could change. All this would require innovative approaches to agricultural systems, including sustainable modes of dryland farming with low costs of pro- duction, intensifying agro-forestry and livestock systems, improving flexibility in water management systems, smart incentives, value chains, and facilitation of markets. • Income diversification. Income diversification remains one of the most obvious ways to reduce exposure of vulnerable populations to cli- mate risks, especially in areas where the natural productivity of agriculture is low and threatened by repeated extreme events. This brings a number of transitional risks that can be tackled through financial incentives, building of skill sets, and access to markets, among others. • Improve water resources planning and management. There is a need to improve sustainable water development and management of wa- ter resources, including major basins to promote resilience. Appropriate watershed management could be a key element of such strategies. Coastal zone management depends both on inland and coastal area management (including mangrove conservation/enhancement). • Improve insurance systems. In addition to crops and livestock, insurance systems could be considered for infrastructure, such as for vulner- able infrastructure in coastal areas. • Improve planning. Planning processes should include improved and sustainable land and surface and groundwater management, planned retreat (or protection) in vulnerable coastal areas, and improved awareness. Disaster preparedness needs to be improved—through ap- propriate hydrometerological networks, improved flood/drought/storm forecasts, and strengthened preparedness, communication, and response strategies. Provision of improved access (even redundancy) in water supply (e.g., for key cities/towns) needs to be explored. Capac- ity-building programs to improve awareness and adaptation strategies need to be designed and implemented. • Promote climate-resilient policies, programs, projects, and institutional capacity development. There is a strong need for the countries of SAR to adapt their policy, institutional, and investment climate to better enable them to adapt to climate risks, including both current vari- ability and future expected changes. management of coastal areas. A complemen- frastructure, and environment and energy Himalayan glaciers and consequent impacts tary analytical study will identify adaptation security, all of which will impose additional on downstream agriculture, habitats, and measures for select coastal Indian cities. In development burdens on economies. There livelihoods. Accordingly, a high priority for Bangladesh, the Bank has been requested are thus strong reasons to scale up Bank en- South Asia is to fill crucial knowledge and by the government to develop an adapta- gagement and better integrate climate risks information gaps. This also requires building tion project in coastal areas with a focus on into project design and policy operations. capacity and knowledge institutions within coastal planning and zoning based on risk The ability to respond to these risks depends countries to develop capabilities to assess assessments, improved weather information crucially on the reliability and availability of these emergent risks. The challenge will be management systems, protection of assets local information, since developing climate to translate and use this climate risk infor- and infrastructure, and climate-resilient risk management approaches will have to be mation to guide investment decisions and policies to guide developmental decisions. tailored to fit local conditions. The future ad- inform project design and implementation. aptation program in South Asia is expected The Bank is currently also developing a cli- Urban sector adaptation. The greatest eco- to include continuing support for programs mate change strategy for the region that is nomic damage from sea level rise will be that help the region better adapt to historical expected to guide its operational and knowl- in the cities, according to a 2007 Bank-led climate variability, as well as for anticipated edge program in the coming years. study of South Asia. A host of initiatives in climate change. Bangladesh and India are helping to improve the understanding of the scale of the prob- However, there remain substantial gaps in This article was prepared by Priti Kumar, pkumar2@ lem and to identify feasible solutions. understanding climate impacts in the vul- worldbank.org, of the South Asia Environment nerable zones in countries of South Asia. and Water Resources Unit and Winston Yu,wyu@ Future Direction Moreover, uncertainty is perhaps one of the central and most prominent features of cli- worldbank.org, of the South Asia Agriculture and Rural Development Unit, with inputs from Richard Climate variability and change will have Damania and Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep of the South mate change. For instance, little is known Asia Environment and Water Resources Unit. SAR significant implications for agriculture, in- about the effects of climate change on the website: www.worldbank.org/sar. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 55 T he International Finance Corpora- to be challenging. Much of the fundamen- tion (IFC) portfolio includes many tal difficulty arises from the limited abil- investments potentially at risk from ity to accurately forecast the short-term climate change, including hotels in localized impact of the continued buildup low-lying coastal areas, water systems poten- in greenhouse gases. The study of climate tially affected by rising sea levels and changes change developed primarily around com- in precipitation, and food and wood process- plex computer models designed to project ing companies dependent on agricultural the worldwide, long-term consequences of a and wood supplies and subject to threats buildup in greenhouse gases over decades. A from rising temperatures, from changes in global view was required in order to capture the timing and amount of rainfall, and from the fundamental relationship between the severe storms. oceans, land, and atmosphere, all of which Adaptation In the past, evaluating the exposure to climate risk was considered a reasonably influence the Earth’s climate. Global climate models typically were designed to produce global (and to some degree regional) results to Climate predictable and insurable matter based on historic climate data. Climate change is causing a rethinking of the methodologies based on economic activities projected over decades, not to describe localized changes over investment periods more typical of Change at for assessing these risks, but the needed data and tools have not yet been developed. Bank lending. Along with other leading banks and insur- The most authoritative and up-to-date the IFC ance companies, the IFC is exploring these issues, but with the additional responsibility source of information on the science of cli- mate change, the Intergovernmental Panel and perspective that comes from its role as a on Climate Change (IPCC), also typically publicly funded development institution. only releases information over relatively long Private Sector time frames, ranging from several decades to As the private sector arm of the World Bank the end of the century. While important to Perspectives on Group, the International Finance Corpora- tion faces distinct challenges and opportuni- know, these periods go far beyond an invest- ment perspective. Just as no individual ex- Climate Change Risks ties in responding to climate change. Because the World Bank lends to governments, it periences a global average temperature, most investments cover limited geographic areas can adopt a long-term and country-wide and periods of a decade or less. perspective in common with the public sector. In contrast, IFC is typically lend- An additional factor limiting the time period ing for projects—factories, power plants, of investments is that one way investors deal hotels—or companies using a shorter time with the higher risk of many developing frame (most commonly 7 to 12 years) and country projects is to reduce their exposure more limited geographic coverage. Evaluat- by offering shorter loan periods. Another ing climate risks is even more difficult in the issue in many developing countries is the context of investments in the financial sector availability of climate change information. (loans to commercial banks and other finan- The end result is that evaluating the risks of cial institutions), which account for about climate change is difficult. 40 percent of IFC’s annual commitments in recent years. The challenge facing private sector assess- ment of climate change risks is evident from While awareness of the seriousness of climate recent reviews of business responses to the is- change and its consequences has increased sues. While many banks and insurance com- greatly in the past year, identifying the risks panies have issued climate change reports, and potential adaptive responses from the the reality is that actual work to identify perspective of private investment continues and respond to the consequences of climate 56 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Richard English / IFC IFC Some IFC investments, such as this seaside hotel, may be highly exposed to climate change risks. change remains surprisingly limited. The to the client over the life of the investment. an investment climate conducive to private most common actions have been to support The objectives will include (a) assessing the sector growth. The issues and approach in mitigation measures, including investment availability of data necessary for use in cli- higher-income regions with more-developed in clean energy. Few programs are in place to mate modeling in various locations consis- financial structures are likely to be consider- mitigate their own risks, aside from simply tent with requirements of IFC investments ably different. withdrawing or reducing coverage periods and (b) studying the applicability and ap- for areas that have recently experienced hur- propriateness of climate models for the par- One adaptation option of particular interest ricanes or other weather-related disasters. ticular location and climate variables of most is the possibility of new insurance products. For example, an October 2007 report by relevance for a number of pilot case studies. IFC already reviews the adequacy of insur- the NGO Ceres—“From Risk to Oppor- Insofar as possible, a key objective will be to ance for each of its investments and pro- tunity: 2007, Insurer Responses to Climate assess the potential impact of climate change motes the growth of insurance as part of its Change”—concluded: “Most insurers are on financial return. An additional objective approach to financial markets. One possibil- behind the curve in developing forward- will be to identify adaptation options that ity already being actively explored with the thinking products and services in response to might be employed to reduce the most sig- World Bank is the use of weather derivatives, climate change. . . .[O]nly about one in ten nificant risks. In undertaking the proposed insurance products for farmers that pay off . . . are working in a visible way on contrib- studies, IFC will seek to engage both its cli- in the event of extreme weather events. uting to understanding the mechanics and ents and environmental specialists in coming implications of climate change, with a simi- to a better understanding of the issues, tools, While IFC’s evaluation of climate change larly small proportion incorporating these and implications of climate change risks. risks is at an early stage, discussions with considerations into asset management.” other private banks and insurance compa- IFC’s approach to assessing climate change nies have shown significant shared interest in In order to better understand these issues, impacts will also reflect the increasing em- these issues. In the near future, IFC expects IFC plans to undertake several assessments phasis on decentralization, with more au- to share its assessment of “best practice” re- of climate change risks during fiscal 2008. thority and staff moving to field offices. For sponses to climate change risks as part of this These studies will use existing investments example, the IFC strategy for Africa is likely ongoing discussion with the wider financial and will test the sensitivity of different types to have a particular focus on identifying and community. of projects to most likely changes in climate responding to climate change risks as they This article was prepared by Alan Miller, amiller2@ variables, looking at both risks to IFC dur- relate to community development, water ifc.org, of IFC’s Environment and Social Development ing the expected investment period and risks availability, and an overall focus on creating Department. IFC website: www.ifc.org ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 57 R esearch at the World Bank on cli- degradation, high rainfall variability, lack of mate change and agriculture has storage infrastructure, inadequate irrigation gained momentum in recent years, systems, and a relatively stagnant contribu- recognizing both the important tion to economic growth. In addition, many role agriculture plays in the economies and rural areas in Africa also must deal with ru- the livelihoods of the poor in developing ral-to-urban migration, political instability, countries, as well as the vulnerability of the persistent poverty, and a high disease burden. agricultural sector to climate change. Major Agriculture and agro-ecological systems are research efforts have been focusing on the the most vulnerable sectors in Africa because agricultural sectors of India, Africa, Latin the climates of many African countries are America, and China. already hot and variable. Climate warming is expected to further reduce crop produc- Much of this research has been carried out Climate Change tivity. Additional constraints include low by the Development Economics Research technological progress and a lack of access Group (DECRG) (see Box). This article to information on how to cope with climate focuses on recent research dealing with Research by the impact of climate change on African agriculture. change. Research addressing the potential impact Development A Focus on Africa of climate change on the agriculture sector in 11 African countries suggests that much of the continent will be hit hard by climate Economics Even without climate change, African ag- riculture faces serious challenges—land change under various scenarios. Large re- Recent Resarch on Climate Change in The World Impacts and Bank’s Development Research Group Within the Bank, the research work program in the Development Economics Research Adaptation Group covers issues of impact incidence; adaptation in agriculture; incentive systems to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions; investment in clean energy mech- Strategies for anisms; mitigation, adaptation, and growth; water resources; transportation; and hy- dropower. Important recent studies include the following: African Agriculture • • Adaptation in developing countries Barriers to expanding access to cleaner electricity in Africa • Carbon-related issues and research • Climate change and agriculture • Climate change and economic growth • Climate sustainability of hydropower-based energy generation treaties • Country stakes in climate change negotiations • Economic and policy aspects of bio-energy/biofuel production and use • Economics of energy consumption and pollution emission in large cities • Government policies, monetary incentives, effects on adoption of energy-efficient technologies • Impact of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Africa and South America • Impact of and adaptation to climate change in agro-ecological zones in Africa • Impact of sea level rise on developing countries • Measures to increase energy efficiency in transportation systems in India • Reducing vulnerability—adaptation to climate variability and change • Role of flexible mechanisms in reducing greenhouse gases • Role of markets in directing investments under the Kyoto Protocol 58 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 DEC gions of marginal agriculture in Africa may types of analyses were conducted: (1) an value is maximized. Farmers can reduce crop be forced out of production by 2100, while estimate of marginal impact using only and livestock sensitivity to climate variables others may thrive. Some countries are more the cross-sectional coefficients, and (2) an through the choice of species and by intro- vulnerable than others, so it is important to analysis involving predicted climate sce- ducing new technologies and management focus help where it is needed most. In sev- narios, which provided more comprehen- practices. Better-equipped farmers can adapt eral scenarios, many African farmers gain, sive estimates of impact. Within these two to and survive change in climatic conditions whereas others lose. approaches, the first assumed a uniform more easily with increased levels of technol- change across the country, and the second ogy, which can help widen the temperature The study, funded through the Impact of involved specific climate scenarios from range for crop growth and make water sup- and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa global circulation models (GCMs), account- plies less dependent on short-term fluctua- project, was supported by the Global Envi- ing for within-country variability. Three dif- tions in precipitation ronment Facility, the World Bank, the Office ferent GCM scenarios by 2100 explored the for Global Programs of the U.S. National consequences of a range of climate changes Differing marginal impact of temperature Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, considered plausible by climate scientists. and precipitation on net farm revenues. the Center for Environmental Economics For rainfed farms, evaluated at their mean and Policy in Africa, and others. Many of the temperature, net revenues fall by an average results have been published in a number of Study Results of $27/˚C. In contrast, the marginal effect World Bank reports, which are listed under Results predict a number of significant im- of temperature on irrigated farms, evalu- selected references at the end of this article. pacts in Africa, including heightened impacts ated at their mean temperature, is a posi- DECRG has played an important role in on streamflow after 2050, differing marginal tive $35/˚C. Assuming a given availability this research effort. impacts of temperature and precipitation on of water and present level of soil quality, net farm revenues, stronger positive/negative warmer temperatures increase the net rev- The study was intended to provide empiri- impacts on rainfed farms, and differing ef- enues of irrigated farms because the mean cal evidence on the role that climate plays in fects on large and small livestock farms. temperature in regions with irrigated farms agriculture in Africa today, how that might in the countries included in the study is rela- change with global warming, and what role Heightened impacts on streamflow after tively cool and because irrigation buffers net adaptation could play. The following coun- 2050. The range of possible Africa-wide revenues from temperature effects such as tries were included in the study: Burkina climate change impacts on streamflow (by evapotranspiration. Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, countries) increases significantly between Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zam- 2050 and 2100. In uniform climate change impact scenarios bia, and Zimbabwe. (The project website is for Africa (2.5˚ and 5˚C temperature in- at http://www.ceepa.co.za/Climate_Change/ Implications of crop choice. There is an op- crease and 7 and 14 percent precipitation index.html). timal precipitation and temperature range decrease by 2100), values per hectare and the for each crop within which production total Africa impact suggest a big loss for rain- The research effort integrated socioeconomic Net revenue impacts from uniform climate scenarios household surveys, climatic and soil data Warming Warming Precipitation Precipitation across key agro-climatic zones and farming Impacts increase of 2.5°C increase of 5°C decrease of 7% decrease of 14% systems (cross-sectional modeling), and riv- Rainfed er-basin hydrological modeling. Cross-sec- ΔNet revenue –72.2 –120.4 –14.1 –28.3 ($ per ha) (–16%) (–30%) (–6%) (–11%) tional models allowed quantitative estimates ΔTotal net revenue of the economic impact of climate change in (billions $) –22.6 –37.7 –4.4 –8.9 sampled locations in each country. For these Irrigated ΔNet revenue 110.3 258.8 –15.9 –31.5 models, baseline data for climate, agricultur- ($ per ha) (9%) (23%) (–1.4%) (–2.7%) al production, and water flow were collected ΔTotal net revenue (billions $) 1.4 3.4 –0.21 –0.41 for each sampled district in each country. Total (Africa ) ΔNet revenue –49.2 –95.7 –18.3 –37.2 Pulling observations from across the conti- ($ per ha) (–11.3%) (–21.9%) (–4.2%) (–8,5%) nent permitted region-wide analyses with ΔTotal net revenue (billions $) –16.0 –31.2 –5.96 –12.1 extrapolations to any location in Africa, as- Note: Values in parenthesis represent percentage changes from present climate. Source: Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn 2007. suming comparable country settings. Two ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 59 fed agriculture if temperature increases (see on species, such as cattle, that are less heat- The results strongly suggest that adaptation Table on page 59). However, assuming suf- tolerant. Wetter scenarios imply a shift from policies to climate change must take into ficient water availability, irrigated agriculture grasslands to forests, an increase in harmful account crop selection, improved livestock is likely to gain from rising temperatures. disease vectors, and a shift from livestock to management, and promoting irrigation crops. where surface water is available. Stronger positive/negative impacts on rain- fed farms. Net revenues from crops will rise Overall, the livestock sector in Africa loses Crop selection. There is an important role in a mild wet scenario by as much as $90 bil- from climate change, because most animals for agronomic research in developing new lion across Africa, while a very hot scenario are raised on large farms. While livestock varieties more suited for higher tempera- could lead to losses of $48 billion by 2100. earnings for small farmers increase with tures. Although income from agriculture warming, these gains are generally smaller in Africa will still suffer losses, these will be Despite these aggregate impacts, irrigated than the losses they face from crops. Still, much smaller if farmers are not confined to farms are predicted to generally benefit be- the analysis suggests that under certain fu- their current set of options. cause they are less climate-sensitive and lo- ture climate change scenarios livestock may cated in relatively cool places. Rainfed farms become more attractive than crops in many Importance of improved livestock man- are likely to be affected the most, whether in regions in Africa. agement. The model results predict that terms of benefits or losses. managing livestock in Africa is likely to be relatively more profitable than crops under Differing effects on large and small livestock Possible Adaptation certain future climate conditions. This, on farms. The results suggest that net revenues for small livestock farms increase with warm- Strategies the other hand, could lead to overstocking of rangeland and increased land degrada- ing by 25 to 58 percent. The net revenues of The study highlights the importance of tion, which has not been addressed in the large livestock owners, however, are expected equipping millions of agriculture-depen- research so far. Furthermore, the species mix to fall, except in a very dry scenario. dent and water-deprived Africans in the of livestock chosen is likely to be slightly dif- most vulnerable countries with the informa- ferent than today. Farmers just south of the In general, small farms can more eas- tion, technologies, and supporting institu- Sahara are predicted to switch species, di- ily substitute animals that are heat-tolerant, tions they need to adapt to further climate versify their portfolio, and move from cattle whereas large farms are more dependent deterioration. toward sheep. Small farmers may be able to adapt without much change in expected net Change in the probability of choosing sheep in Africa with a uniform income, but large sheep farmers in South temperature increase of 5˚C Africa may have to abandon sheep, as the area suitable for sheep farming will shrink as climate changes (see Figure, at left). These changes are predicted to reduce the net in- comes of large farms considerably. Promoting irrigation where surface water is available. Irrigation is an effective adap- tation strategy against reduction in rainfall. However, for many regions, there is no avail- able surface or groundwater and a lack of storage infrastructure, so warming scenarios with reduced rainfall are particularly delete- Probability Probability rious. Furthermore, policy makers have to afstmaps.P5 afstmaps.P5 0.01150.0400 0.01150.0400 0.04010.0800 address the fact that many farmers in Africa 0.04010.0800 0.08010.1200 0.08010.1200 have limited experience and hence capacity 0.12000.2000 0.12000.2000 0.20010.2800 0.20010.2800 to deal with irrigation. Conducive policies include marketing policies and access to 0 2 4 8 12 18 Decimal Degrees 0 2 4 8 12 18 Decimal Degrees markets. Policy makers also should consider Source: Seo and Mendelsohn 2007. 60 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 DEC Probability of Adopting Irrigation Based on Temperature and Precipitation 1 1 .8 Probability of Irrigation Probability of irrigation .95 .4 .6 .9 .2 .85 0 0 10 20 30 40 0 200 400 600 800 Spring temperature (Celsius) Spring Precipitation (mm) Source: Kurululasuria and Mendelsohn 2007. making resources available to allow the tran- face would change, which in turn would al- Kurukulasuriya, P., and others. 2006. “Will Afri- sition from rainfed to irrigated agriculture. ter government interventions. can Agriculture Survive Climate Change?” World Bank Economic Review 20(3):367–388. Future Work Any adaptation process necessitates experi- Seo, N., and R. Mendelsohn. 2007a. “Climate mentation and know-how. With a new cause Change Adaptation in Africa: A Microeconom- Several of the results obtained in this study that can be much better justified by eco- ic Analysis of Livestock Choice.” Policy Research were based on assumptions that warrant fur- nomic cost/benefit figures, the role of public Working Paper 4277. Washington, DC: World ther exploration. Some are based on analyti- investment in research and extension may be Bank. cal tools that can be improved. reinvigorated. Future work in this direction would be extremely useful and would inform Seo, N., and R. Mendelsohn. 2007b. “The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in For example, studying the relationship policy makers. Africa: A Structural Ricardian Analysis.” Policy between climate change and surface and Research Working Paper 4279. Washington, DC: groundwater hydrology is a necessary condi- Selected References World Bank. tion for a more precise understanding of the Dinar, A., R. Hassan, R. Mendelsohn, J.Benhin, possible role of irrigation in adapting to cli- and others. Forthcoming. Climate Change and mate change (see Figure, above). While the Agriculture in Africa: Impact Assessment and Adap- study in Africa used a certain approach to tation Strategies. London: Earthscan. assess the available runoff, there is certainly Kurukulasuriya, P., and R. Mendelsohn. 2007a. room for improvement in the methodology. “Endogenous Irrigation: The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers in Africa.” Policy Research An analysis of the impact of climate change Working Paper 4278. Washington, DC: World on the quality of soil—and therefore on the Bank. ability of farmers to adapt—is needed for a Kurukulasuriya, P., and R. Mendelsohn. 2007b. For more information on the DECRG work program more precise analysis of adaptation options. and the individual studies, see http://go.worldbank. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate One approach is to predict how present agro- org/K3KFKLUBH0. Change on African Cropland,” Policy Research ecological zones may shift as climate changes, Working Paper 4305. Washington, DC: World mainly due to changes in soil quality. With Bank. This article was prepared by Ariel Dinar, adinar@ additional information on water availability worldbank.org, of Development Economics Research and soil quality, the set of options farmers Group. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 61 T he World Bank Institute (WBI) help client countries become more resilient helps client countries share and ap- to observed and projected impacts of climate ply global and local knowledge to change. The starting point for many client meet development challenges. Cli- countries is to improve their capacity to cope mate-change-related activities are primarily with the adverse impacts of present climatic pursued in WBI’s Sustainable Development extremes—such as floods, droughts, and Division. The main emphasis of WBISD is storm surges—and thus minimize the risk to on improving the capacity to apply relevant their development gains and future plans. knowledge, reform policies, and improve en- abling environments for delivery of services Initial international efforts to support devel- and management of resources for long-term oping countries in reducing the adverse im- benefit (see Box). A process for collaborat- pacts of climate variability and change have Capacity ing with regional or national partners to strengthen the effectiveness of organizations, especially capacity building organizations, is focused on developing national plans for adaptation and/or implementing small-scale projects that address adaptation options in Development an integral part of WBISD’s approach, with the intention to sustain and further develop a particular area, such as natural resource management. There has been some effort that capacity. to disseminate existing adaptation options and technologies, but more effort is needed A Necessity for On the mitigation side, through its multiple to strengthen the institutional and policy national and regional activities, CF-Assist enabling environment for their effective Effective (see www.carbonfinance.org) helps develop- ing countries and economies-in-transition application. to facilitate the creation and management of Many countries express a need to raise aware- Response to Climate carbon assets, reduce the costs of participa- ness about the effects of climate variability tion, and help client countries achieve their and change to decision makers in develop- Change Adaptation sustainable development goals while con- tributing to global environmental benefits. ment-oriented sectors. Another urgent need is to transfer skills and knowledge about ap- With the evolution of climate change work proaches, practices, and tools that can help within the World Bank Group, WBISD has move from plans to action, especially when recently initiated a program on adaptation climate change adaptation is integrated into focusing on institutional strengthening to development plans. Marco Aurelio Gonzal WBI and Its Approach to Capacity Development Successful capacity development has to move from individual training events to in- creased emphasis on organizational capacity development. To that end, technical assistance emphasizing multi-year commitment and a process of learning material de- velopment to mentoring support is becoming increasingly important. WBISD works collaboratively with different parts of the Bank and with external part- ners, including bilateral donors, foundations, the private sector, nongovernmental or- ganizations, community-based organizations, learning agencies, and sectoral and lead agencies in client countries. WBI and its partners deliver learning activities through courses, seminars, knowledge networks, communities of practice, and expert advice in different regions. The audience for these programs includes policy makers, academ- ics, and development practitioners, parliamentarians, journalists, teachers, youth, and Nicaragua civil society leaders. WBISD uses a range of interactive technologies and blended appli- cations of new and traditional learning methods, such as face-to-face, distance learn- ing, and e-learning, to deliver its learning programs. 62 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 Klas Sander WBI WBISD is initiating a comprehensive integrating climate change adaptation term. National and regional institutions effort to help create awareness and de- knowledge into economic sector-based will be essential partners. velop the capacity to initiate country- and existing learning activities (for example, sector-level analysis to formulate policies and in agriculture or water) and other pro- The expected outcomes would include im- strengthen institutions for mainstreaming grams in various regions such as sustain- proved capacity of decision makers and key adaptation into sectoral and national strate- able land management, urban planning, stakeholders in client countries to better gies. It is placing special emphasis on work and community-based projects. cope with the impacts of current and future with the “Least Developed Countries”—the climate variability and change and thus to f Applying knowledge to policy formula- poorest of the poor and many in Africa in help minimize the risk climate change poses tion. This area will focus on the appli- urgent need of capacity to reduce the impact to economic development. Some of these cation of knowledge to help formulate on development. The key focus of WBISD’s outcomes are particularly focused on short- strategies and policies that incorporate adaptation activities will be: to medium-term capacity development and climate risk management and thus adap- some on longer-term issues. tation considerations within a wider f Awareness raising. The aim of aware- development agenda and demonstrate ness raising is to build constituencies Capacity development is essential. Given the their implementation through piloting within selected countries for effective long-term nature of climate change and its activities. This will include develop- response to climate change. As part of impacts, the capacity and skills needed have ment of learning material that brings this, in collaboration with other parts to endure for many decades. In particular, together experiences from countries of the Bank and external partners, capacity development has to help client that have developed such strategies and WBISD will develop high-quality countries develop their own context-specific policies, as well as platforms/forums to learning packages, including a regional responses to climate change impacts within share such knowledge. and selected sector-specific overviews of their development and poverty reduction climate change impacts and approaches f Strengthening institutions. WBISD goals. to adaptation. also seeks to strengthen institutions for knowledge generation, application, f Knowledge/skills building. In this area, and capacity development and main- the aim is to develop a critical mass tenance focused on adaptation. This is of expertise in a country or region for This article was prepared by Habiba Gitay, hgitay@ an essential component to enable client worldbank.org, and Konrad von Ritter, kritter@ designing and implementing adapta- countries to formulate and implement worldbank.org, of WBI’s Sustainable Development tion measures. These activities will climate change adaptation in the long Division. WBI website: www.worldbank.org/wbi/ include a range of initiatives focusing on sustainabledevelopment. ANNUAL REVIEW • JULY 2006–JUNE 2007 (FY07) 63 O n average, a quarter of the World Bank’s annual investment lending is climate-sensitive, mostly in sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, coastal infrastructure, and rural roads. In light of this, the World Bank Climate Change Team has developed a new software- based tool that can be used to assess development projects for potential sensitivities to climate change and climate variability. News Updates Known as ADAPT (Assessment and Design for Ad- aptation to Climate Change—A Planning Tool), it provides a simple and quick way to assess develop- ment projects for potential sensitivities to climate change. The tool brings together climate data- bases and expert assessment of the threats and opportunities arising from climate variability and change. It provides a summary of climate trends at a project site, identifies project components ex- posed to climate risk, explains the nature of the risk, and provides guidance regarding adaptation options and appropriate resources. ADAPT is in- tended for project team members, both within the Bank and within client countries, who do not have specialized knowledge of climate change issues. ADAPT is available on CD by request from Ian No- ble (inoble@worldbank.org) and Michael Westphal (mwestphal@worldbank.org). Related to ADAPT, a climate and climate-related data web portal is be- ing developed, the first version of which will be launched in February 2008. For further information please see www.worldbank.org/climatechange. Nobel Prize Awarded to IPCC Nobe © ® The Nobel Foundation T he 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared by Al Gore and the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The World Bank now has a number of current or recent staff with a claim to a small share of that honor. The most obvi- ous is Bob Watson, who was Chair of the IPCC for its Third Assessment and who attended the award ceremony to help represent the thousands of other authors and reviewers in the IPCC process. Other former staff include Ajay Mathur, Eric Martinet, and Mohan Munasinghe, who is currently a Vice Chair of the IPCC. Current staff include Habiba Gitay and Ian Noble, both of whom have led the preparation of IPCC reports; Philiippe Ambrosi and Anal Markandya, who contributed as authors to the Fourth Assessment; and Sofia Bettencourt, Sandra Cointreau, and Frank Sperling, who helped review material. 64 ENVIRONMENT MATTERS • 2007 A Selection of World Bank Group Publications The following publications may be obtained by sending an email to ematters@worldbank.org or by phoning the Environment Department Publications Unit at (202) 473-3641. P U B L I C AT I O N S Fisheries and Aquaculture Implementation of Environment and Natural Aspects in Changing the Face of the Waters: The Promise and Challenge Development Policy Lending—First Year Review of Sustainable Aquaculture Environment Department Paper No. 111 July 2007 Muthukumara Mani and Alexandra Sears ISBN 978-0-8213-7015-5 June 2006 $25.00 Environmental Health Natural Resource Management Environmental Health and Child Survival: Epidemiology, Economics, Experiences Development and Growth in Northeast India: The Natural Forthcoming (April 2008) Resources, Water, and Environment Nexus ISBN 0-8213-7236-X South Asia Sustainable Development Network $18.00 May 2007 Forests and Forestry The Role of Water Policy in Mexico: Sustainability, Equity, and Economic Growth Considerations Forests Sourcebook—Practical Guidance for Sustaining Forests Musa Asad, Ariel Dinar in Development Cooperation LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper 27 Forthcoming (May 2008) October 2006 ISBN 978-0-8213-7163-3 $30.00 Biodiversity Institutions and Governance Mainstreaming Conservation in Infrastructure Projects— Case Studies from Latin America Pakistan—Strategic Country Environmental Assessment Juan D. Quintero September 2007 June 2007 South Asia Sustainable Development Network Environment Department Strengthening Institutions for Sustainable Growth— Climate Change Country Environmental Analysis for India South Asia Sustainable Development Network Transport and Climate—Lessons from the Partnership between August 2007 Mexico City and the World Bank LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper 29 Environmental Priorities and Poverty Reduction— Walter Vergara and Seraphine Haeussling A Country Environmental Analysis for Colombia May 2007 Ernesto Sanchez-Triana, Kulsum Ahmed, and Yewande Awe Transitioning to Climate Resilient Development: Perspectives January 2007 from Communities in Peru ISBN: 0-8213-6888-5 Environment Department Paper No. 115 $35.00 Frank Sperling Forthcoming Corporate Environmental and Social Sustainability Environmental Economics and Indicators Focus on Sustainability 2005/2006 May 2007 Mainstreaming Environment in the Implementation Environment Department of PRSPs in Sub-Saharan Africa www.worldbank.org/cesr Environment Department Paper No. 112 Sunanda Kishore May 2007 Mainstreaming Environment in the Energy Sector— The Case of the Energy- Environment Review for Iran Fernando Loayza, Sherif Arif, and Hayato Kobayashi The Little Green Data Book 2007 December 2006 April 2007 ISBN 978-0—8213-6967-8 $15.00 P U B L I C AT I O N S Scaling Up Demand- International Trade Side Energy Efficiency and Climate Change— Improvements through Economic, Legal and Programmatic CDM Institutional Perspectives December 2007 June 2007 63 pages 170 pages www.esmap.org; ISBN 978-0-8213-7225-8 www.carbonfinance.org $20.00 new Forests in Post-Conflict Making the Most of Democratic Republic of Scarcity—Accountability Congo—Analysis of a for Better Water Priority Agenda Management Results in Sub-Saharan Africa Region the Middle East and North January 2007 Africa 82 pages Middle East and North Africa Region March 2007 235 pages ISBN: 978-0-8213-6925-8 $25.00 World Development Growth and Report 2008 — Agriculture CO2 Emissions— for Development How Do Different 2007 Countries Fare? 384 pages by Robert W. Bacon ISBN: 978-0-8213-6807-7 and Soma Bhattacharyu $26.00 November 2007 Environment Department Paper No. 113 40 pages Adapting to Climate Stakeholder Change Engagement— East Asia Environment A Good Practice Monitor 2007 Handbook for East Asia and Pacific Companies Doing Region Business in Emerging January 2007 Markets 53 pages Multilateral Development Banks Internatonal Finance and the Climate Change Agenda Corporation May 2007 November 2007 172 pages Joint report by Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and World Bank For information on how to obtain these publications, please call the World Bank Environment Department at 202-473-3641, or e-mail us at ematters@worldbank.org