Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda December 2018 | Edition No. 13 Rwanda Economic Update Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda December 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. i Foreword.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ii Executive summary.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... iii PART I: RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Global growth is moderating...................................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Rwanda’s growth momentum continued in the first half of 2018 ................................................................................ 2 3. Monetary and financial conditions remain stable, while credit growth has been modest.................................. 5 4. Rwanda’s external position continued to strengthen ....................................................................................................... 8 5. The fiscal deficit again expanded in FY2017/18, but the risk of debt stress is low................................................. 10 6. Rwanda’s macroeconomic outlook remains favorable with some downside risks................................................ 13 PART II: SCHOOLING FOR LEARNING: STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE OF EDUCATION IN RWANDA....................................... 17 1. Status of schooling and learning in Rwanda........................................................................................................................ 19 2. Achieving schooling for learning in Rwanda....................................................................................................................... 26 3 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................................................ 46 Appendixes .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................47 References .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................53 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Prices for Rwanda’s key import and export products......................................................................................................... 2 Figure 1.2: Rwanda maintained a solid growth momentum ................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 1.3: Contributions of the main sectors to real GDP growth, 2015-18................................................................................... 3 Figure 1.4: Headline and core inflation, 2015–18...................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 1.5: Inflation rates of selected components 2015–18, .............................................................................................................. 6 Figure 1.6: Credit and deposit conditions, 2015–18................................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 1.7: Developments in money market interest rates ................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 1.8: Formal exports and imports, growth rate in percent, 2011-18 ...................................................................................... 8 Figure 1.9: Gross international reserves and the exchange rate of Rwf against US dollar, 2015–18...................................... 10 Figure 1.10: Rwanda’s public and publicly guaranteed debt ................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 1.11: Drivers of Rwanda’s public and publicly guaranteed debt ............................................................................................. 12 Figure 2.1: School completion rates in Rwanda compared with group averages for countries by income, 2016............ 20 Figure 2.2: School survival rates in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan countries, latest available year................................... 22 Figure 2.3: Too few students in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan countries attain minimum learning levels.................... 22 Figure 2.4: Mathematics scores of 8th graders in Sub-Saharan Africa’s “established” countries lag behind those of their peers’ elsewhere in the world.......................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 2.5: Transition rates between primary and lower secondary education by location and income group, Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan African countries............................................................................................................ 24 Figure 2.6: Rwanda’s human capital index and underlying components in comparative perspective, 2017........................ 25 Figure 2.7: Early grade enrollment indicators, Rwanda and Peru, 1990-2010.................................................................................... 27 Figure 2.8: Early grade “bulge index” rankings for 103 low- and middle-income countries........................................................ 28 Figure 2.9: Grade one enrollments by age and repetition rates, Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990s and latest available year ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 2.10: Language of instruction in basic education and test scores in Sub-Saharan Africa................................................... 31 Figure 2.11: Distance, cost, quality and other impediments to lower secondary schooling in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan African countries, by country group, early to mid-2000s.......................................................................... 33 Figure 2.12: Share of teachers and other educated workers with tertiary education in Rwanda and selected Sub-Saharan African countries, by group, early to mid-2010s........................................................................................... 37 Figure 2.13: Teacher pay in Rwanda and in other Sub-Saharan African countries, early to mid-2010s....................................... 38 Figure 2.14: Relation between public spending on education as a percentage of GDP and per capita income across countries, 2016 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 40 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Real GDP growth, Rwanda, 2015–18 .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Table 1.2: Trends in Rwanda’s main traditional exports .......................................................................................................................... 9 Table 1.3: Rwanda’s central government finances, FY 2015/16–2018/19.......................................................................................... 11 Table 1.4: Rwanda’s medium-term macroeconomic projections.......................................................................................................... 13 Table 2.1: A possible prioritization of Rwanda’s reform agenda toward schooling for learning............................................... 45 LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1: Foreign direct investment in Rwanda ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Box 1.2: International oil prices and transport in Rwanda................................................................................................................... 7 Box 1.3: Doing business and Rwanda’s private sector........................................................................................................................... 14 Box 1.4: Future Drivers of Growth in Rwanda: Innovation, Integration, Agglomeration, and Competition...................... 15 Box 2.1: Access to primary education in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan countries, 2000-2013......................................... 21 ACRONYMS BNR National Bank of Rwanda NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda CIV Cote d’Ivoire NPL Nonperforming Loans CONFEMEN Conference of Ministers of Education of PASEC Programme d’analyse des systèmes French-speaking Countries éducative de la CONFEMEN CPI Consumer Price Index PAYE Pay as You Earn DEOs Decentralized Education Officers PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability DHS Demographic and Health Survey PIRLS Progress in International Reading Literacy DRC Democratic Republic of Congo Study EAC East African Community PISA Programme for International Student ECD Early Childhood Development Assessment EGRA Early Grade Reading Assessment PSF Private Sector Federation EMIS Education Management Information System RDB Rwanda Development Board FDI Foreign Direct Investment REB Rwanda Education Board FIRST Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening REPO Repurchase Agreement Operations FY Fiscal Year REU Rwanda Economic Update GDP Gross Domestic Product RRA Rwanda Revenue Authority GER Gross Enrollment Ratio RURA Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority GIR Gross Intake Rate Rwf Rwandan Franc HCI Human Capital Index SACMEQ Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Education Quality. HCP Human Capital Project SDI Service Delivery Indicators ICT Information, Communications and Technology SEOs Sector Education Officers IIEP International Institute for Educational SNNP Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Planning SSA Sub-Saharan Africa IMF International Monetary Fund TIMSS Trends in International Mathematics and Kg Kilogram Science Survey LARS Learning Achievement in Rwandan Schools U.S. United States LOI Language of Instruction UIS UNESCO Institute for Statistics LSMS Living Standards Measurement Study UN United Nations MICE Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Exhibitions Cultural Organization MINALOC Ministry of Local Government UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund MINEDUC Ministry of Education US$ United States Dollar MS4SSA Mathematics and Science for Sub-Saharan Africa USAID United States Agency for International Development NAEB National Agricultural Export Development Board VAT Value-Added Tax Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 i FOREWORD W elcome to the 13th edition of the Rwanda Economic Update. The Update, a semiannual publication, reports on and synthesizes recent economic developments; considers them in a medium-term, regional, and global context; and analyzes how these developments and current policies may affect the outlook for the economy. The Update attempts to make an analytical contribution to how Rwanda’s national development strategy is carried forward. Each edition also has a special feature spotlighting a particular topic. It is intended for a wide audience of policymakers, business leaders, other market participants, analysts engaged in Rwanda’s economy, and civil society. This edition of the Rwanda Economic Update was jointly prepared by World Bank Group teams Rwanda Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice, and Education Global Practice. The report was prepared by a team led by Aghassi Mkrtchyan (Senior Economist), Peace Aimee Niyibizi (Economist) and Ruth Karimi Charo (Senior Education Specialist). Part One – Recent Economic Developments – was written by Peace Aimee Niyibizi and Aghassi Mkrtchyan. Part Two – Schooling for Learning: Tackling a Looming Crisis – was written by Ruth Karimi Charo (Senior Education Specialist) and Jee-Peng Tan (Consultant). The report benefitted from comments from Phillip Schuler, Allen Curtis K. Dennis, Naoko C. Kojo, Elizabeth Ninan Dulvy, Tara Beteille and Lianqin Wang. The team benefitted from support from Nancy Umwiza for providing logistical support, Rogers Kayihura for managing communication and dissemination, and Robert Waiharo for design and layout of the report. We are also grateful to Anne Grant for excellent editorial support. The team also received overall guidance from Abebe Adugna (Practice Manager, Macroeconomic Trade and Investment), Sajitha Bashir (Practice Manager, Education), and Felipe Jaramillo (Country Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Eritrea) and Yasser El-Gammal (Country Manager, Rwanda). We are grateful to National Institute of Rwanda (NISR), National Bank of Rwanda (BNR), and Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) for most of the data used in this report. This report benefited from productive discussions with Staff from the macroeconomic division of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN). The World Bank teams appreciate their contributions. ii Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent Economic Developments by 0.3 percentage points to reach 23 percent of GDP. In the first half of 2018, the economy continued to Improved performance of both direct and indirect expand at a brisk pace, well on track for Rwanda taxes drove the increase; grants continued to decline to achieve 7.2 percent growth in 2018. GDP growth as percentage of GDP. Net lending was the main driver was 8.6 percent, following 9.3 percent growth in the of the similar rise in expenditures. Although the fiscal second half of 2017. Growth in production was deficit at 5 percent of GDP was only slightly higher again broad-based. As it continued to recover than in the year before, it exceeded original budget from recent droughts, agriculture expanded by 7.6 projections by about 1 percentage point of GDP. At percent. Industry has also regained momentum year-end 2017 public and publicly guaranteed debt as large construction projects resumed and food- had reached 48 percent of GDP. processing was strong. Growth in services was a healthy 8.7 percent. Over the medium-term growth is projected to be steady at 7 to 8 percent, sustained by improved On demand side, investments were the main agriculture; strong exports, both traditional and driver of growth. After stagnating for close to two nontraditional; and large infrastructure projects, years, private consumption grew 5 percent. Driven such as the current construction of the new by strong domestic demand, imports rose by 12 airport. With inflation low and a favorable external percent in real terms. Exports continued to grow at environment, monetary policy is expected to remain a healthy 10.8 percent in real terms, although net accommodative. As large construction projects exports contributed negatively, being outpaced by resume, over the medium-term import demand will growth in imports. elevate the current account deficit, though it is not expected to exceed 9 percent of GDP. Solid growth was coupled with low inflation, and pressures on the exchange rate have dissipated. The main downside risks are weather conditions, Headline inflation as of September 2018 was 1.2 uncertainty in the global economy, and the weak percent. The Rwandan franc had by then depreciated potential of the private sector. Its exposure to by about 2 percent after the major external adjustment weather risks not only undermines Rwanda’s growth of 2017. A supportive macroeconomic environment prospects but also pushes up inflation and reduces has allowed the National Bank of Rwanda to keep access of the poor to food. Floods, as well as drought, the policy rate at 5 percent throughout the year. also threaten Rwanda’s agriculture. And both growth Nonperforming loans are trending down with the and external accounts are vulnerable to uncertainty help of a new regulation on credit classification and in the global economy. Overall, Rwanda’s medium to provisioning. Credit growth, however, is still slow: long-term outlook continues to face risks resulting after seeing their credit portfolios deteriorate in from the lack of responsiveness of the private sector 2016–17, banks have become more risk-averse. The to the improvement of the business environment as banking sector continues to be well-capitalized—the well as low quality of human capital. ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets is well above   the minimum requirements. Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda In FY2017/18, both revenues and expenditures went up slightly as a percent of GDP and the deficit marginally increased. Revenues increased R wanda’s education system has made significant progress in expanding coverage over the past 25 years and has now entered a new phase of Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 iii Executive Summary development in which learning will become just as Four priority areas warrant attention to address important, if not more. This enlargement of focus is Rwanda’s looming crisis in basic education. The critical to the country’s aspiration to join the ranks of recommendations are based on the implications for upper-middle income countries by 2035. Low-income Rwanda of two recent World Bank studies. The first, countries that are now in this league have invariably entitled Facing Forward: Schooling for Learning in universalized nine or ten years of basic education Africa, provides a comparative perspective on the and equipped their young people with basic status and progress of basic education across Sub- competencies in language, mathematics and science, Saharan African countries; the second study, a chapter and progressively enabled new cohorts of students on Human Capital in the Rwanda Drivers of Growth to achieve highly favorable results on international Study, offers a long-term perspective contextualized assessments of student learning. Rwanda has rebuilt by the country’s overall economic development a functioning education system and reinforced its strategy. Rwanda could aim higher and deliver better budgeting and budget execution system, both of results in basic education, as follows: which provide the tools for implementing strategic reforms that can make significant contributions to 1. Intensify efforts to improve early grade the country’s goals in basic education. progression and foundational competencies. Rwanda could aim explicitly to ensure that all The magnitude of Rwanda’s challenge—regarding children attend school regularly and progress both coverage and learning—becomes clear in from 1st grade to 4th grade without repeating, comparative perspective. Compared with Sub- that completers of 2nd grade are orally fluent in Saharan African countries with more established Kinyarwanda and that completers of 4th grade systems of education, Rwanda has exceptionally are able to read with comprehension. Practical high gross enrollment ratios in primary education, steps for implementation include: expanding a characteristic of systems with recent histories of rapid expansion; and the out-of-school population access to pre-school, including better nutrition relative to the school-age population continues to to reduce pervasive stunting among young be non-negligible. Dropping out remains prevalent: children; tightening school- and district-level only 68 percent of first graders eventually six years management of the early grade; capping class of primary schooling, and only 38 percent of them size at no more than 50 students per class by complete the full nine years of basic education. hiring new staff, and expanding affordable, Learning outcomes are alarmingly low, based on proven models of early grade instruction. albeit patchy data that are publicly available: only 2. Remove two key impediments to learning and 45 percent of 2nd and 5th graders tested in 2014 school continuation in basic education. The met grade-level expectations in Kinyarwanda and first pertains to the language of instruction in English, respectively; and the average score for (LOI) which switches, under current policy, from mathematics was 33 percent among 2nd graders Kinyarwanda to English from Grade 4 onward. and 38 percent among 5th graders. According to the World Bank’s newly-launched Human Capital Because of teachers’ limited grasp of English, Project, Rwanda’s overall Human Capital index is a more pragmatic and effective approach is consistent with the country’s level of per capita GDP. to delay the transition to English, to Grade 5 However, the education-related sub-components or even Grade 6, while taking steps to create of the Index are especially low, highlighting the conditions for a successful switch in each need for increased policy attention to improve both school (e.g., through targeted teacher training learning outcomes and school completion rates. packaged with remedial teaching, and well- iv Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Executive Summary sequenced textbooks and materials). The second education. An important priority is to ensure impediment relates to costs and poor quality of that all schools possess minimally conducive services—the main reasons for the 18-percentage conditions for teaching and learning, based point dropout in the transition between primary on an agreed package of these conditions. and lower secondary schooling. Promising More resources will also be needed to cope policy responses include: locating schools closer with a significant projected increase in lower to rural habitations; pro-poor conditional cash secondary enrollments in the coming years. transfers and related publicity campaigns on the Ensuring that resources do indeed reach schools benefits of schooling. Looking ahead, Rwanda will require better procurement and financial may also consider: using technology to enable management at all levels of oversight. In core cost-effective teaching of lower secondary areas of education administration, MINEDUC’s mathematics and science and abolishing end- own technical capacity must grow to tackle its of-cycle examinations at Grade 6 as a structural increasingly complex mandate. Measuring and impediment to school continuation. monitoring school progression and learning 3. Strengthen the professionalism of teachers, outcomes, especially through participation in instructional leaders and their managers. regional or international studies, is essential for Ample research findings from Sub-Saharan greater accountability throughout the system, African countries suggest the following possible based on objective benchmarks for results. approaches to increase the competence of Rwanda’s teacher workforce: (a) for serving The foregoing plan for reform is broad and could teachers, provide structured teacher guides benefit from prioritization of the main actions. and competency-based training options, Based on considerations of urgency and readiness to along with career progression pathways; (b) implement at scale, the agenda of short-, medium- for low-performing teachers, offer options and long-term actions shown below could form for improvement and exits for those falling the basis for dialogue among stakeholders to agree the way forward. Implementation will naturally short of minimum professional standards; (c) take center stage in a system that has recovered for prospective teachers, provide pre-service its key institutional assets for this purpose: a training aligned to the national curricula and functioning network of schools, an articulated priorities for student learning; and (d) for school curriculum, an integrated teacher workforce, and directors and instructional leaders, strengthen an effective public financial management system. career incentives and specific training for their role Nonetheless, capacity remains sparse; learning- as managers, mentors and coaches of teachers. by-doing, with room for course correction in light Other aspects of teacher management also require of lessons from implementation, will, therefore, be attention, notably: minimum qualifications for critical for progress. Persevering with the method recruitment of primary school teachers; teacher while keeping a clear-eyed focus on schooling for workloads and staffing norms; and the pay learning for all Rwandan children—over decades, structure and pathways for career progression. not just years—will help establish the strong human 4. Increase public spending on schooling for capital foundation required to realize the country’s learning and strengthen implementation aspiration of becoming an upper middle-income capacity. Rwanda needs to spend more on basic country by 2035. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 v Executive Summary A possible prioritization of Rwanda’s reform agenda toward schooling for learning Time-Frame Priority areas and related actions Short Medium Long 1-2 years 3-5 years 5+ years A Improve early grade progression and foundational learning A1 Expand access to early childhood development a. Intensify efforts to reduce stunting among pre-primary children X X b. Expand public, community-based pre-school and school readiness programs X X A2 Tighten school- & district-level management of the early grade bulge a. Use age-grade norms in grade 1, and monitor key indicators closely for each school X b. Cap class size at 50 or fewer in grades 1 and 2 by hiring more teachers/assistants X X A3 Expand affordable models of early grade instruction a. Use accelerated reading program in grade 1, and provide reading materials to all X classes b. Change instructional practices by training early grade teachers and providing X X materials B Remove two key impediments to learning and school continuation in basic education B1 Manage implementation of Language of Instruction (LOI) policy in a pragmatic fashion a. Assess English proficiency of grade 4 teachers and students against benchmarks, X X and develop a school map of teachers’ proficiency to target training and provision of materials b. Identify and scale up cost-effective models of English language training for X X teachers, including the development of instructional materials B2 Reduce cost of schooling and enhance the benefits perceived by students and their families a. Offer lower secondary education closer to students’ homes X X X b. Use technology for cost-effective teaching of lower secondary mathematics and science c. Abolish the end-of-Grade 6 national examination X X C Strengthen professionalism of teachers, instructional leaders, and their managers C1 Enhance teachers’ professional competence and the support they receive a. For serving teachers: teacher guides, competency-based training and career X X X pathways b. For low-performing teachers: pathways for growth and exits for persistent laggards X X c. For prospective teachers: better alignment of pre-service training with their future X X work d. For school directors and instructional leaders: better incentives and customized X X training C2 Professionalize teacher recruitment and foster career development and progression a. Raise minimum qualification standards for teacher recruitment in primary X X education b. Agree workload and staffing norms to rationalize deployment, reduce double-shift X X X teaching X X c. Review pay structure of teachers, allow for career progression, invest in teacher training D Increase public spending on basic education and strengthen implementation capacity D1 Mobilize and deploy resources to universalize basic education with quality a. Define and cost minimum package for all schools and budget for it X X b. Review and improve procurement and financial management at all levels X X c. Conduct policy-sensitive projections of school expansion to assess budgets and X X X strategy D2 Augment MINEDUC capacity in critical areas of education administration a. Strengthen core capabilities (e.g., planning, budgeting, procurement, data, HR, etc.) X X b. Develop graduate-level programs at University of Rwanda in selected technical X X domains c. Participate in regional or international studies on student learning X X X vi Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 PART ONE RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 1 Recent Economic Developments 1. Global growth is moderating U ncertainty in the global economy is growing, and the outlook has deteriorated compared to the previous Rwanda Economic Update (REU-12). economies. Lower oil production—due to capacity constraints—offset the positive tailwinds from higher oil prices in Angola and Nigeria. In South Africa, The broad-based cyclical recovery that started in the contractions in agriculture, mining, and construction second half (H2) of 2017 has suffered new setbacks held the economy back. Growth is strong throughout and uncertainty weighs heavily on the outlook. New the East African Community (EAC), outpacing the setbacks include growing trade tensions between SSA-wide average. In 2017, droughts had caused the major economies, and financial market pressures in regional growth rate to decelerate to 4.5 percent. It some emerging market and developing economies.1 is now picking up as agriculture rebounds in Kenya, Indicators of both global trade and industrial activity Rwanda, and Uganda. In Tanzania growth has are softening and commodity prices have become showed signs of slowing due low public investment volatile. Growth has become more uneven across and uncertainties in the investment climate (World advanced countries. While growth continued to Bank Group, 2018a). In 2018, growth for the region be strong in the United States, 3.5 percent in the is projected to average 5.5 percent, higher than third quarter of 2018, the Euro area grew only at 0.2 the overall growth in SSA, but lower than Rwanda’s percent in the three months to September 2018. projected growth (Figure 1.2). Global uncertainty has pushed commodity prices to Figure 1.2: Rwanda maintained a solid growth momentum move in different directions, including Rwanda’s key (percent) export and import products (Figure 1.1). 10 9 Figure 1.1: Prices for Rwanda’s key import and export products 8 ($100=2014) 7 140 6 5 120 4 100 3 2 80 1 0 60 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f Rwanda Tanzania Kenya SSA EAC Uganda 40 Source: World Bank 2018b. World Bank Group (Macroeconomic, Trade & Investment, Poverty & Equity) 2018 20 Note: SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa; EAC: East Africa Community Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan -17 Apr-17 Jul -17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul -18 Oct-18 Co ee, arabica ($/kg) Tea ($/kg) Tin ($/kg) Crude oil, average ($/bbl) Source: World Bank 2018b. 2. Rwanda’s growth momentum continued in the first half of 2018 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continued to experience The growth momentum that began in the second a gradual improvement, with an estimated growth half of 2017 was sustained in the first half of 2018, of 2.7 percent in 2018, up from 2.4 percent in 2017. consistent with the projections in REU-12. Real The pace of recovery in SSA is slower than expected GDP rose by 8.6 percent following 9.3 percent in H2 weighed by the sluggish expansion in Angola, of 2017 (Figure 1.3). Growth has accelerated across Nigeria, and South Africa—the region’s three largest the board as Rwanda recovered from the drought, 1 World Bank Group (2018). Global Economic Prospects June 2018: The Turning of the Tide? Washington, DC: World Bank Group & World Bank Group (2018). Commodity Markets Outlook, October. World Bank, Washington, DC. 2 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments large-scale construction projects resumed, and year earlier. In addition to the return to normal rain private consumption picked up. The growth patterns, the production gains can also be attributed recovery has translated into high domestic revenue to improved use of fertilizers and recent investments collection in the fiscal year of 2017/18 (ending in in new tea plantations (NAEB, 2018). June 2018), while the government maintained a higher spending momentum. The resumption of large-scale construction activities and improvements in food-related Figure 1.3: Contributions of the main sectors to real GDP Growth, manufacturing drove industrial activities, while 2015-18 (contribution to GDP growth, year-on-year) high mining growth observed in 2017 was not 12 sustained. Industrial output expanded by 9.0 percent 10 9.3 in H1 of 2018, far above the 0.2 percent of a year earlier 8.9 8.7 8.1 8.6 (Table 1.1). Construction grew 9.4 percent after having Percentage points 8 contracted since H2 of 2016. The revival was mainly 6 due to construction of Bugesera airport, but smaller- 4 5.7 4.8 4.0 5.5 5.1 scale commercial construction has also recovered. At 6.0 2.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 5.6 percent, growth in mining was substantially lower 2 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.1 2.4 2.1 than in 2017 because of a slowdown in the growth 0 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 of non-traditional minerals. This illustrates difficulties 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agriculture Industry Services GDP growth that confront Rwanda in sustaining high rates of Source: NISR data growth in the newly emerging mining sub-sectors that experienced strong expansion in 2017. Growth in agriculture continued at high pace in H1 of 2018 as Rwanda recovered from the drought Manufacturing production expanded by 10.3 of 2016 and 2017. Rwanda still depends on rain- percent in H1 of 2018. Growth was particularly fed agriculture with only a fraction of all croplands strong in food-related manufactures, where output irrigated in 20182, which explains the volatility expanded by 14.3 percent, and in textiles, which of growth rate in the sector. Recovering from the expanded by 21.4 percent. The robust growth in drought, agriculture grew 7.6 percent, contributing manufactures is supported by continued recovery in 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth in H1 of 2018 food production after the 2016–17 drought and by (Figure 1.3 and Table 1.1). The Seasonal Agricultural new investments in light manufacturing such as textile Survey for Season A of 2018 (NISR, 2018c) indicates and garment, agro-processing, and furniture largely in that production went up by 6.5 percent in Season response to Made in Rwanda initiatives. The Rwanda A3 after falling by 7.2 percent the year before. Export Foreign Private Capital 2017 Report4, indicates that crops grew by 22.4 percent—the highest growth rate in 2013–16 manufacturing ranked fourth as the main since 2015—driven by high coffee and tea production. destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) behind In H1 of 2018, coffee production expanded by 43.0 information and communications technology (ICT), and tea by 19.6 percent (year-on-year), recovering financial services and mining, ahead of trade services from declines of 12.1 and 2.5 percent respectively a and tourism (Box 1.1). 2 In 2018 season A, for small scale farmers, irrigation was practiced in 5 percent of all cultivated plots (913,685 ha) and in 18.5 percent of all cultivated plots (21,332 ha) for Large Scale Farmers. 3 Rwanda has three agricultural seasons, mostly conditioned on rainfall: Season A, September through February; Season B, March through June; and Season C, July through September. 4 See Foreign Private Capital Census Reports (2010-2017). http://www.statistics.gov.rw/datasource/foreign-private-capital-census Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 3 Recent Economic Developments Table 1.1: Real GDP Growth, Rwanda, 2015–18 (Monthly) 2015 2016 2017 H1 of 2016 H2 of 2016 H1 of 2017 H2 of 2017 H1 of 2018 GDP growth 8.9 6.0 6.1 8.1 3.9 2.9 9.3 8.6 Production side Agriculture 5.0 3.9 6.5 5.6 2.2 4.2 8.9 7.6 Food crops 3.6 3.1 7.3 4.8 1.3 3.8 10.9 5.9 Export crops 14.0 2.5 2.4 15.9 -6.4 -3.9 9.6 22.4 Industry 9.1 6.6 4.2 10.4 3.5 0.2 8.2 9.0 Mining -4.8 10.0 20.8 12.9 7.7 1.4 38.1 5.6 Manufacturing 8.4 6.6 6.7 9.5 5.0 5.4 7.4 10.3 Construction 15.6 4.9 -3.2 10.8 -0.4 -5.5 -0.4 9.4 Services 10.4 7.2 8.0 8.5 5.9 5.1 10.8 8.5 Trade & transport 11.4 6.9 3.7 12.1 1.9 -4.6 12.6 17.8 Wholesale & retail trade 4.3 8.3 3.8 12.4 0.0 -9.4 10.1 17.8 Other services 10.1 7.3 9.4 7.3 7.3 8.5 10.3 5.7 Net taxes 14.1 4.4 -4.0 10.0 -0.5 -10.8 2.7 13.6 Expenditure side Domestic demand 16.4 2.9 3.9 6.9 -0.8 0.4 7.4 9.4 Govenment consumption 5.1 9.2 10.7 4.4 14.1 12.0 9.9 -0.6 Household consumption 18.2 -0.5 1.7 2.3 -3.2 1.1 2.2 5.1 Investment 17.6 10.1 6.5 23.2 -1.4 -7.2 21.2 28.1 External demand (or Net exports)* 57.7 -8.7 -5.8 1.9 -18.6 -9.6 -1.1 12.8 Exports of goods and services 6.3 12.9 33.7 8.0 17.9 21.8 44.1 10.8 Imports of goods and services 34.7 -1.1 10.1 4.2 -5.9 2.0 18.5 12.0 Source: NISR data Note: * A positive sign for net exports means a widening negative balance of goods and services—subtracting from GDP growth—since the trade balance is in deficit in each period. Box 1.1: Foreign Direct Investment in Rwanda Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been rising in Box Figure 1: FDI inflows, Rwanda and Selected Countries recent years but is still relatively low. In 2013–17, it (percent) 5 averaged 4.3 percent of GDP, peaking at 5.7 percent 4.2 4.3 4.3 in 2014, and up from 2.8 percent in 2008–12. This 4 4.0 brought Rwanda to a higher level of FDI than several 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 neighboring comparator countries (Box Figure 1). 3 2 Information and communication technology and 1.1 1.1 financial services continued to attract most FDI. 1 This was mainly driven by the entries of new mobile operators, and new investment for the existing ones. 0 Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Rwanda’s financial system has also attracted FDI through 2009 -12 2013-17 foreign banks investing in the existing local banks or Source: UNCTAD 4 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments establishing new ones. Foreign ownership in banks’ capital has reached 35 percent. FDIs to industrial activities (such as manufacturing, construction, electricity and water, except for mining activities) have been gradually increasing (Box Figure 2), which to some extent reflects “Made in Rwanda” incentives for investment in manufacturing. Box Figure 2: FDI by industrial activity, 2009–12 and 2013–16 (Sectoral destination of FDI, percent) 2009-12 2013-16 Agriculture, Agriculture, 8.0 3.1 ICT, Trade & transports, 18.5 9.4 Trade & transports, ICT, 11.4 35.7 Other services, 10.0 Other services, 5.6 Construction, 2.3 Electricity & Water, 0.0 Electricity & Water, Construction , Financial 5.9 1.0 services Mining, 25.4 13.5 Mining, Financial 12.6 services, Manufacturing, 13.0 12.0 Manufacturing, 12.7 Source: National Bank of Rwanda (BNR), NISR, Rwanda Development Board (RDB) Services remain the main driver of GDP growth in GDP growth, their highest contribution in many terms of sectoral contributions. Accounting for more years. Private consumption grew by 5.1 percent, than 45 percent of GDP, services grew by 8.5 percent contributing 4.0 percentage points to GDP growth. in H1 of 2018, up from 5.1 percent in H1 of 2017 but The expansion in private consumption followed slightly lower than in H2 of 2017. Services sector that two years of stagnation. Government consumption are closely related to household consumption— fell by 0.6 percent because of restraints on current such as trade, transport, financial services, and ICT expenditures. The contribution of net exports was grew by double digits. The hospitality sector (hotels negative, deteriorating by 12.8 percent in real and restaurants) performed relatively well, as terms from the same period in 2017 (Table 1.1). This Rwanda continued to position itself as a successful reversed the trend of positive contribution of net destination for Meetings, Incentives, Conferences exports observed in 2016 and 2017. and Exhibitions (MICE). 3. Monetary and financial conditions remain In H1 of 2018 domestic demand drove growth, stable, while credit growth has been while net exports deteriorated. Investment grew modest by 27.1 percent—the second consecutive half- year with growth above 20 percent (Table 1.1). This was propelled by the resumption of large- Inflation remains quite low—the lowest in the EAC. In the 12 months ending in September 2018, headline inflation was 1.2 percent, while core scale construction projects like Bugesera airport inflation was 1.6 percent (Figure 1.4). Inflation fell and by the uptick in investments (with significant from its peak of 7.9 percent in February 2017. Food contribution from public investments) reflected price inflation declined to its lowest level since 2010 in imports of machines, devices, and tools. (Figure 1.5) thanks mainly to favorable harvests in Investments contributed 7.5 percentage points to 2018. Transport prices were the fastest-growing Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 5 Recent Economic Developments Figure 1.4: Headline and core inflation, 2015–18 Figure 1.5: Inflation rates of selected components 2015–18, (Percent) (Percent) 9 20 Upper bound 8 15 7 10 6 Headline in ation 5 5 4 Core in ation 0 3 2 -5 Lower bound 1 -10 0 Food in ation Utilities Transport Source: NISR data. Source: NISR data. component of the CPI, driven in part by rising Concerns about the bank assets quality have international fuel prices (Box 1.2). Low inflation and contributed to sluggish credit growth. With balance well-anchored inflationary expectations allowed the sheets impaired by rising non-performing loans (NPL), National Bank of Rwanda to hold the policy rate at commercial banks have become prudent in issuing 5.5 percent. new loans. The NPL ratio had increased from 6.2 percent in December 2015 to 8.2 percent in June 2017, Notwithstanding robust growth, stable inflation, driven mainly by increased NPL levels in agriculture and supportive monetary conditions, growth and services sector. The NPL ratio came down to 6.9 in bank credit continued to be slow (Figure 1.6). percent in June 2018 because of major NPL write-offs. Rwanda’s private credit growth shrunk from its recent To address financial sector risks, in January 2018 the peak of about 32.6 percent in January 2016 to a low of BNR issued new regulations on credit classification 6.5 percent in July 2017. In H1 of 2018, credit growth and provisioning to banks to promptly identify and was slightly higher than in 2017, at 8.1 percent, while monitor NPLs and better manage credit risks. Tighter the volume of new loans contracted. credit regulation, which was necessary for financial Figure 1.6: Credit and deposit conditions, 2015–18 (percent) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Credit growth (y-o-y) Credit growth (period average) Deposit growth (y-o-y) Deposit growth (period average) Source: BNR data. 6 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments Box 1.2: International oil prices and transport in Rwanda In response to the changes in international fuel prices, Rwanda reviewed its administered prices for domestic retail petroleum four times this year, raising them by a total of 7.6 percent, from Rwf 1,031/liter (=US$1.22/liter) in December 2017 to Rwf 1,109/liter(=US$1.29/liter) (Box Figure 3). Administrative control of fuel prices is aimed at smoothing the volatility of world prices and are expected to be fiscally neutral. According to the Global Economic Prospects report (World Bank Group, 2018b), oil prices are substantially above what was expected because of both higher demand and supply disruptions in several oil-producing countries. Crude oil prices rose by more than 16 percent in the first 8 months of 2018, to an average of US$71 a barrel. In 2018 the higher price for petroleum has pushed up prices for transport services in Rwanda. In the 12 months ending in September 2018, transport prices went up 10.3 percent. In April, the Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority (RURA) announced new tariffs for public transport, which took into consideration changes since 2015, such as fuel price increases, installation of speed governors, automated fare collection and E-ticketing in public buses, and higher insurance premiums. Box Figure 3: International oil prices and domestic retail fuel prices, 2007–18 1,400 133 140 118 1,200 108 110 US$/barrel Rwf/liter 1,000 80 800 50 600 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Domestic fuel prices Crude oil price (right axis) Source: World Bank, Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority (RURA), Ministry of Trade and Industry stability, has reduced banks’ appetite for excessive percent in June 2018, the risk-weighted assets ratio risk and has contributed to the credit slowdown in was well above Basel III requirements, and almost short-term. The volume of new loans dropped by 3.6 unchanged from December 2017. Adoption of percent in H1 of 2018 after a 2.4 percent-decline in Basel III will further reinforce the capital positions the same period of 2017. The slowdown was mainly of banks.5 Average bank interest rates on loans observed in bank lending to commerce, restaurants held at about 17 percent and deposit rates and hotels. hovered around 8 percent; the 9 percent average intermediation spread in H1 of 2018 hit a low level Rwanda’s banking sector remained well-capitalized, last seen in H1 of 2015. The loan-to-deposit ratio of and interest rate spreads (the difference between commercial banks has remained almost unchanged lending and deposit rates) narrowed. At 19.7 since December 2017. 5 The new framework introduces two additional indicators on the liquidity requirement of the banking sector: the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) of banks, standing at 299.5 percent and 224.7 percent respectively as at June 2018, higher than the 100 percent minimum prudential requirement. (BNR regulation N° 07/2017 of 19/05/2017). Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 7 Recent Economic Developments Figure 1.7: Developments in money market interest rates Figure 1.8: Formal exports and imports, growth rate in (Percent) percent, 2011-18 (Percent) 12 80 10 60 8 6 40 4 20 2 0 0 5 5 5 5 16 6 6 6 17 7 7 7 18 8 8 8 -1 r -1 l -1 t-1 r-1 l -1 t-1 r -1 l-1 t-1 r -1 l -1 t -1 n- n- n- n Ju Oc Oc Ap Oc Ju Ju Ju Oc Ap Ap Ap Ja Ja Ja Ja -20 Policy rate REPO rate Interbank rate Jun-12 Dec Jun-13 Dec Jun-14 Dec Jun-15 Dec Jun-16 Dec Jun-17 Dec Jun-18 182-day-treasury bill rate Tbill WAR Export growth Import growth Source: BNR data Source: BNR data Money market interest rates have declined in line Exports of three traditional minerals led export with the lower policy rate. Interbank and REPO growth, supported by high international prices. rates have closely followed the policy rate (Figure After growing by 45 percent in 2017, export values 1.7). Interest rates of Treasury bills continued to of three traditional minerals—cassiterite, coltan, decline after peaking up in 2017. The weighted- and wolfram—expanded by more than 50 percent average interest rate of treasury bills has declined year-on-year (y-o-y) in H1 of 2018 to US$73.4 million. from the peak of 9.6 percent in February 2017 to 5.9 This was due to increased unit prices of Coltan and percent in October 2018. Well-anchored inflationary Wolfram, 53.8 percent and 45.3 percent, combined expectations and slow depreciation have contributed with 23.9 percent and 28.5 percent increase in export to the decline in interest rates. A lower domestic debt volumes, which raised the total value of exports by issuance by the government has also played a role. In 91 percent and 87 percent respectively. Cassiterite, H1 of 2018, the total amount of treasury bills issued accounting less than 37.3 percent of total 3Ts values, was 11 percent lower than in the same period of 2017. saw its export values expanding by 13.7 percent due to a 13.5 percent increases in export volumes while 4. Rwanda’s external position continued to their unit price was almost unchanged (Table 1.2). strengthen R wanda’s trade deficit narrowed further in 2018.6 In the 12 months ending in June, the trade deficit was about 14 percent of GDP, down from its peak Exports of the two main crops, coffee and tea, rose by about 14.3 percent, mostly due to higher volumes. Meanwhile, a higher share of fully washed of 21.9 percent in 2016. Two years of strong export coffee raised the average unit price of coffee by 3.7 growth and relatively modest import growth drove percent, to US$2.76/kg in H1 of 2018. A lower unit the adjustment. Although export growth has slowed price for tea was offset by 10.5 percent higher volumes in 2018, it remained strong at 23.3 percent in U.S. as production of tea surged as result of the return dollar terms for the first half of 2018, while imports to normal rain patterns as well as improvements in grew by 7.0 percent (Figure 1.8). fertilizers’ use (NAEB, 2018). 6 Balance of payments data that include both formal and informal trade statistics are published on annual basis in Rwanda. Analysis underlying REU- 13 for H1 of 2018, in line with previous December issuances of REU, are based on formal trade data for Rwanda, while June issuances of REU are based on total exports that also include formal trade. 8 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments Table 1.2: Trends in Rwanda’s main traditional exports (Percent changes) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 of 2018 Value Coffee 50.4 33.0 –18.4 –9.8 8.7 4.0 –5.7 9.6 33.1 Tea 15.5 14.7 2.9 –15.6 –6.7 40.0 –12.5 32.9 8.0 Cassiterite 47.7 129.4 –45.4 15.5 17.8 –52.4 1.6 44.1 13.7 Coltan –8.7 108.8 47.5 136.5 –22.1 –36.8 –40 56.5 90.6 Wolfram 23.3 125.7 63.9 14.4 –11.5 –34.8 –31.5 6.2 86.7 Volume Coffee 21.6 –14.5 8.9 17.7 –20.1 17.7 –0.8 0.2 28.3 Tea 15.2 10.2 –5.4 –6.4 7.9 8.9 –1.1 7.5 10.5 Cassiterite –9.3 79.4 –33.3 5.6 21.6 –35.4 –7.7 34.1 13.5 Coltan –21.2 18.9 28.6 115.4 –6.6 –28.3 –23.1 35.8 23.9 Wolfram –3.5 19.3 74.0 26.7 –0.2 –19.4 –3.8 –11.2 28.5 Price US$/KG Coffee 23.7 55.5 –25.1 –23.4 36.0 –11.6 –4.9 9.4 3.7 Tea 0.3 4.0 8.7 –9.8 –13.5 28.6 –11.5 23.6 –2.2 Cassiterite 62.8 27.8 –18.1 9.4 –3.1 –26.3 10.1 7.5 0.1 Coltan 15.9 75.6 14.7 9.8 –16.6 –11.9 –21.9 15.2 53.8 Wolfram 27.8 89.2 –5.8 –9.7 –11.4 –19.1 –28.8 19.6 45.3 Source: BNR data Growth momentum in nontraditional exports is Surging domestic demand for industrial raw slowing. Between mid-2016 and year-end 2017, materials and high oil prices drove the rebound in exports of such nontraditional minerals as beryllium, imports. In H1 of 2018, the value of imports grew by unwrought lead, and gemstones drove a rebound 7 percent, compared to the 10 percent decline a year in export growth, generating more than 23 percent earlier amid Rwanda’s external adjustment. Imports of total export earnings. In H1 of 2018, the export of intermediate goods and energy grew the fastest, value of nontraditional minerals went up by only by 11.8 percent and 22.8 percen respectively. Imports 1.1 percent, to US$72.6 million, generating only 16 of raw materials for industry went up by 13.6 percent percent of total export. This shows that the growth and those for construction by 11.3 percent. Imports momentum of non-traditional exports was difficult of food products fell by 0.7 percent, against the to sustain, mostly reflecting still narrow base of non- background of improve domestic food production, traditional exports and possibly temporary character while imports of other consumer goods—the of the surge of some nontraditional exports in 2017. largest component of the import bill—increased by In contrast, horticulture export, which is considered only 3.2 percent. Imports of capital goods rose only as nontraditional for Rwanda, grew 45.1 percent marginally, by 1.0 percent. The slow growth reflects continuing recent trends of strong growth. a steep drop, in both value and volume terms, of transport equipment, which can be attributed to EAC harmonization valuation system for used cars.7 The valuation system includes standardized depreciation rates for all motor vehicles imported to the region that ranges from 20-80 per cent (which 7 is five per cent lower than the current depreciation rate) depending on the age of the vehicle from the date of registration. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 9 Recent Economic Developments The exchange rate has held steady relatively stable previous fiscal year by 0.1 percentage points (Table the major external adjustments of 2015–17. In 1.3). For the past two fiscal years, the expanded deficit H1 of 2018, the Rwandan franc (Rwf ) depreciated has mainly been driven by net lending. against the U.S. dollar by about 1.7 percent—quite modest compared to the pace of depreciation in Revenues were slightly lower than expected in 2015–16 when Rwanda was going through an nominal terms. Based on a three-year strategic external adjustment. Foreign exchange reserves held plan (2015/16–2017/18) the Rwanda Revenue relatively steady at about US$1.1 billion for the nine Authority (RRA) undertook a series of tax policy and months to June 2018 (Figure 1.9), representing 4.0 administrative changes intended to raise annual months of import cover. The real effective exchange GDP by 0.3 percentage points by widening the tax rate has also been relatively stable. base, improving VAT administration, and enhancing tax compliance (RRA, 2015). Although tax revenues Figure 1.9: Gross international reserves and the exchange rate reached 15.9 percent of GDP in FY2017/18, 0.4 of Rwf against US dollar, 2015–18 (monthly) percentage points higher than in FY2016/17, in Units of Rwf, average Million of US$, end 950 period period 1,300 nominal terms the target underperformed. Important measures to strengthen revenue collections were 900 1,200 counterbalanced by Government’s ambitious 850 1,100 industrial policy and Made in Rwanda campaign that 800 1,000 involves large incentives and tax expenditures. In 750 900 2017/18, nontax revenue was higher than expected 700 800 as reimbursements from the UN for peace-keeping 650 700 operations rose. Grants, which were over 9 percent of 600 Dec. 2015 Mar Jun Sep Dec. 2016Mar Jun 600 Sep Dec. 2017Mar Jun 2018 GDP four years ago, have halved in recent years to 4.5 Rwf/US$ Reserves (right axis) percent of GDP (Table 1.3). Source: BNR, 2018a, 2018d Revenue performance varied across tax category. 5. The fiscal deficit again expanded in FY2017/18, but the risk of debt stress Though taxes on goods and services, which is low contribute about 50 percent to total tax revenues, in FY2018 expanded by 13.1 percent, they fell slightly T he fiscal deficit has been growing as a percent of GDP since FY2016/17, mainly because of net lending.8 Total revenues grew 12.5 percent in nominal short of revised projections. This revenue category amounted to 7.8 percent of GDP, up from 7.6 percent terms, reaching 23 percent of GDP in FY2017/18,9 in the previous fiscal year but still below the peak compared to 22.7 percent in 2016/17. Government of 8.1 percent in FY2015/16. Excises performed expenditure and net lending totaled 27.7 percent worse than value-added tax because of lower-than- of GDP, with another 0.3 percentage points of GDP expected consumption of beverages (both alcoholic allocated for clearing government payment arrears.10 and non-alcoholic), petroleum products, lower usage Overall, the budget was executed with a deficit of 5 of mobile airtime, and dilatory growth in non-EAC percent of GDP, exceeding the projected deficit by imports. The last factor also affected collection of 0.9 percentage points and the fiscal deficit of the taxes on international trade. 8 Definitions used in REU are based GFSM1986, which is the format Rwanda’s still follow. The Government of Rwanda is making headway towards enhancing format of fiscal reporting via a transition to fiscal reporting according to the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014). As notes IMF (2018), the transition has been complex, therefore longer than expected. IMF and government are working closely to finalize implementation. It is expected that the budget execution report of FY2018/19 will follow the GFSM2014. 9 Rwanda’s fiscal year is July 1 to June 30. 10 As of March 2018, arrears were an estimated 0.8 percent of GDP. 10 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments Direct taxes fared better than expected, primarily be buoyant, growing at 23.8 percent in FY2017/18 due to robust performance of the tax on corporate and reaching 3 percent of GDP.11 The income tax grew profits, which accounts for about 44 percent of at 9.3 percent in FY2017/18, exceeding the target by direct taxes. Collection of profit taxes continued to 0.4 percent to reach 3.6 percent of GDP. Table 1.3: Rwanda’s central government finances, FY 2015/16–2018/19 (Percent of GDP) FY2017/18 FY2018/19 FY2013/14 FY2014/15 FY2015/16 FY2016/17 Revised Execution Actuals budget budget rate Revenue and grants 25.8 25.0 24.4 22.7 22.8 23.0 100.0 22.4 Total revenue 16.6 17.7 18.4 18.0 18.4 18.5 99.2 18.0 Tax revenue 14.7 15.4 15.8 15.5 15.9 15.9 98.9 15.6 Direct taxes 6.0 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 100.8 6.7 Taxes on goods & services 7.6 7.6 8.1 7.6 7.7 7.8 99.8 7.6 Taxes on intern. trade 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 84.9 1.3 Non-tax revenue 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 101.3 2.3 Grants 9.1 7.3 5.9 4.6 4.3 4.5 103.3 4.4 Expenditure 29.7 29.9 27.5 27.3 26.6 27.7 102.9 27.0 Current expenditure 15.0 14.7 14.7 15.0 14.5 14.9 101.5 14.8 Wages and salaries 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 99.8 4.1 Purchases of goods and services 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 97.4 2.8 Interest payments 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 99.4 1.1 Transfers 5.5 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.6 93.4 4.8 Exceptional social expenditure 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.3 138.7 1.9 Capital expenditure 13.7 13.6 11.4 10.7 9.9 10.8 107.9 10.1 Domestic 6.2 6.9 7.1 5.9 6.1 5.9 95.2 5.7 Foreign 7.6 6.7 4.3 4.8 3.8 4.9 128.5 4.3 Net lending 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.0 89.9 2.1 Change in arrears (-: net reduction) -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Primary deficit -3.9 -4.1 -2.2 -3.6 -2.7 -3.5 -3.5 Fiscal deficit (cash basis) -4.2 -4.8 -3.5 -4.9 -4.1 -5.0 -4.9 Financing 4.2 4.8 3.5 4.9 4.1 5.0 4.9 Foreign (net) 2.2 3.6 3.9 4.8 4.1 4.5 4.2 o/w Budgetary loans 2.7 2.7 2.8 Project loans 1.7 2.2 1.7 Domestic (Net, -: deposit build-up) 2.0 1.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 Source: MINECOFIN data (Macro-framework Dataset, Budget Execution tables, & Budget Framework Paper). Note: Table 1.3 is reported in Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) 1986. 11 Profit taxes comprise corporate income tax, personal income tax, and withholding tax. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 11 Recent Economic Developments Both recurrent and capital expenditures exceeded Rwanda’s debt level has been rising since 2013. After the revised 2017/18 budget. The execution rate the Heavily Indebted Poor Country and Multilateral was about 102.9 percent, with 101.5 percent in Debt Relief Initiatives in 2005, Rwanda’s debt level recurrent and 107.9 percent in capital spending. had remained stable at around 20 percent of GDP Due to additional requests for UN peace-keeping over the period of 2005-2012. Since 2013, there has operations, exceptional expenditures have the been a sharp increase, with Rwanda’s debt level more highest budget overrun (138.7 percent of the revised than doubling from 21.8 percent of GDP in 2012 to budget), which drove the overspending in recurrent 48.3 percent of GDP in 2017 (Figure 1.10). External expenditure (Table 1.3). This was covered by increased public and publicly guaranteed debt, including reimbursements from the UN, which was reflected commercial loans and Eurobonds, contributed more in nontax revenues. Capital expenditures were 7.9 than 80 percent of Rwanda’s debt accumulation. percent higher than planned, mostly due to faster than expected implementation of foreign-financed Higher primary deficits, government guarantees, projects, such as rural road and vocational training and the real exchange depreciation are the main projects. Partially offsetting this was underspending of drivers of debt accumulation (Figure 1.11). Since 4.8 percent in the domestically financed component 2012, Rwanda has seen a gradual increase in fiscal of public investment. deficits going hand in hand with the decline in external grants. Fiscal deficits would have been According to the 2018/19 budget law approved on higher without the decline in total fiscal spending June 30, 2018, both revenues and expenditures that has taken place since 2012. This highlights the are expected to decline as a percent of GDP, criticality of strengthening the revenue base over leaving the deficit relatively unchanged. Tax and the long term for maintaining public services and for nontax revenues and external grants are expected ensuring manageable risk of debt distress. to decline as a percent of GDP. Total expenditures are projected to decline by 0.7 percentage points Risk of debt distress remains low. The 2018 joint of GDP driven by a combination of declining public IMF-World Bank debt sustainability analysis (DSA) investments and stable recurrent expenditures and assessed Rwanda as having a low risk of debt distress net lending. (IMF, 2018). The large repayment of Eurobonds in 2023 Figure 1.10: Rwanda’s public and publicly guaranteed debt Figure 1.11. Drivers of Rwanda’s public and publicly (Percent of GDP) guaranteed debt (Percent) 60 12 10 48.3 50 43.5 8 6 40 35.6 30.5 37.5 4 28.6 30 34.9 2 20.6 21.9 21.8 27.2 0 20 23.3 21.8 -2 14.1 17.3 16.4 10 -4 -6 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Primary de cit Real interest rates Real GDP growth Multilateral Bilateral Commercial Domestic Real exchange rate depreciation Residual, including asset changes Total external debt Total public debt Change in public sector debt Other identi ed debt-creating ows Source: MINECOFIN and DSA data. Source: MINECOFIN and DSA data Note: Government guarantees are reflected in “residual, including asset changes” 12 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments results in a breach of conventional thresholds for debt is not expected to go significantly beyond 9 percent repayment capacity (debt service-to-exports and of GDP. debt service-to-revenue ratios) in DSA simulations. Although the breach appears to be temporary Rwanda’s economic outlook is vulnerable to the and manageable, it highlights the importance of weather. Agriculture production depends heavily strengthening Rwanda’s fiscal and external buffers on weather conditions as it became clear during while growth momentum is strong. droughts in 2016 and 2017. Droughts not only undermine the country’s growth prospects but also 6. Rwanda’s macroeconomic outlook remains are a major threat to poverty reduction as they push favorable with some downside risks up food price inflation and reduce access of the poor In the medium term, Rwanda’s macroeconomic outlook is favorable, with GDP growth projected at 7 to 8 percent. This is in line with the projections to food. Floods pose another major risk. The growth is also threatened by uncertainty in the of REU-12. Increased output is expected to be global economy. Although global growth is currently driven by higher agricultural yields, strong exports, strong, concerns are rising about the implications and large infrastructure projects, such as the new of tightening financing conditions for emerging airport currently being constructed. Mining sector economies, softening metal prices due to weaker is expected to remain relatively strong, although demand from China, and escalating trade tensions. another major expansion like the one in 2017 is Rising oil prices may erode the gains Rwanda’s main not expected. With a low inflation and a favorable export products recorded in H1 of 2018. external environment, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. Stronger portfolios are The lack of private sector responsiveness to the expected to allow banks to reverse the slow credit improved business environment remains one of growth of the past two years and further support the long-term concerns. A vibrant, competitive, economic growth. Heightened demand for imports is and innovation-driven private sector is seen as the expected to elevate the current account deficit, but it engine of Rwanda’s future growth. Government has Table 1.4: Rwanda’s medium-term macroeconomic projections (Percent) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 f 2019 f 2020 f Real GDP growth, at constant market prices 7.6 8.9 6.0 6.1 7.2 7.8 8.0 Private consumption 7.8 18.2 -0.5 1.6 4.1 5.0 5.0 Private consumption 33.9 3.3 9.5 6.9 7.3 4.7 -3.2 Gross fixed capital investment 1.0 21.1 10.5 8.8 16.1 15.2 17.2 Exports, goods and services 7.2 6.3 12.9 33.6 14.3 13.5 14.8 Imports, goods and services 14.5 34.7 -1.1 10.1 10.8 9.5 8.8 Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices 7.6 8.5 6.1 6.8 7.2 7.8 8.0 Agriculture 6.7 5.0 3.9 6.6 6.0 5.3 5.0 Industry 11.0 8.9 6.7 4.2 8.2 10.1 12.0 Services 7.0 10.4 7.2 7.9 7.5 8.4 8.2 Inflation (consumer price index, annual average) 1.8 2.5 5.7 4.8 2.8 5.0 5.0 Current account lalance (% of GDP) -12.1 -14.7 -16.0 -6.8 -8.8 -9.1 -8.5 Sources: World Bank, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, and Poverty Global Practice. Notes: f = forecast. Forecasts are based on data available in August 2018. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 13 Recent Economic Developments continued the reforms as evidenced by Rwanda’s funded by foreign savings. If Rwanda is to sustain rapidly improved ranking in the Ease of Doing of high growth and become an upper-middle-income Business Index (Box 1.3). Nevertheless, this has not country by 2035, as envisaged in the Vision 2050, yielded the commensurate investment from the the private sector needs to scale up investments in private sector. Rwanda’s government-led economic productive tradable sectors—a move that will also model has relied heavily on public investments require higher domestic savings. Box 1.3: Doing business and Rwanda’s private sector Rwanda has made big strides in improving its business climate. Under the new standardized methodology12, Rwanda ranks at 29 out of 190 in Doing Business 2019, the only low-income countries of the top 50 economies. In SSA, Rwanda ranks 2nd only after Mauritius (20), Since 2007, Rwanda has undertaken 58 regulatory reforms of which 53 reforms made it easier to do business (Box Table 1). Rwanda also ranks at 57 out 160 in the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index13 2018, being 3rd in SSA after South Africa (33) and Cote d’Ivoire (50). Yet, the private sector responsiveness to the improved business climate has been relatively weak. Rwanda’s Vision 2020 states “the emergence of a viable private sector that can take over as the principal growth engine of the economy is absolutely key.” As Rwanda’s economy develops and matures, the need for the private sector to play a leading role in achieving the rapid growth required to reach Rwanda’s ambitious income aspirations only increases. Access to finance, skills and the cost of energy are among the cross-cutting challenges to the private sector in Rwanda. High costs that undermine competitiveness of the private sector stem mainly from limited access to credit, high cost of energy generation and inadequate skills. Further strengthening market institutions is also critical for empowering the private sector to play a bigger role in investments, growth and job creation. Box Table 1: Rwanda performs well on global business climate indicators Indicators DB 2019 rank DB 2019 score DB 2016 score Changes in score Registering Property 2 93.70 87.75 5.95 Getting Credit 3 95.00 90.00 5.00 Protecting Minority Investors 14 76.67 58.33 18.34 Paying Taxes 35 84.55 77.03 7.52 Starting a Business 51 91.39 82.92 8.47 Resolving Insolvency 58 57.20 47.82 9.38 Getting Electricity 68 78.72 60.04 18.68 Enforcing Contracts 78 59.54 53.06 6.48 Trading Across Borders 88 74.98 61.15 13.83 Dealing with Construction Permits 106 67.01 66.25 0.76 Overall 29 77.88 68.44 9.44 Sources: World Bank, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, and Poverty Global Practice. Notes: f = forecast. Forecasts are based on data available in August 2018. http://www.doingbusiness.org/en/methodology 12 The logistics performance index is the weighted average of the country scores on the six key dimensions: 1) Efficiency of the clearance process 13 (i.e., speed, simplicity and predictability of formalities) by border control agencies, including customs; 2) Quality of trade and transport related infrastructure (e.g., ports, railroads, roads, information technology); 3) Ease of arranging competitively priced shipments; 4) Competence and quality of logistics services (e.g., transport operators, customs brokers); 5) Ability to track and trace consignments; and 6) Timeliness of shipments in reaching destination within the scheduled or expected delivery time. https://lpi.worldbank.org/ 14 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Recent Economic Developments Low quality of human capital constitutes another context, the special topic of REU-13 (current issue) concern for long-term growth. The government’s discusses the criticality of human capital for Rwanda’s aspirations to reach upper-middle-income status by development ambitions focusing on the challenges 2035 will require dramatic improvements in human and the reform agenda in basic education. capital. Rwanda has made great achievements in health and education indicators, including reducing In addition to the vibrant private sector and child and maternal mortality, reducing fertility rate, human capital, the Future Drivers of Growth study, increasing primary school enrollment and gender which was jointly prepared by the Government parity. As reflected in the recently released human of Rwanda and the World Bank, identifies other capital index (HCI), Rwanda – along with other crucial reform areas for Rwanda’s growth agenda. countries – faces an array of several challenges. The report identifies four essential drivers of Rwanda scores 0.37 in HCI, which is one the lowest in growth—innovation, integration, agglomeration, the region. Among main challenges in human capital and competition— that will need to be supported by is the high level of stunting (discussed in the special reforms in six high-priority areas: human capital, trade topic of REU-12), low completion rates and learning and regional integration, agriculture, competitive outcomes, quality of teaching, and limited access to domestic enterprises, urbanization, and institutions quality early childhood development services. In this (see Box 1.4). Box 1.4: Future Drivers of Growth in Rwanda: Innovation, Integration, Agglomeration, and Competition In November 2018, the government of Rwanda and the World Bank Group launched a joint report “Future Drivers of Growth in Rwanda: Innovation, Integration, Agglomeration, and Competition”. The agreements of the joint report emanated from a March 2017 agreement between President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group to provide important analytical inputs for Rwanda’s Vision 2050. The report identifies four essential drivers of growth—innovation, integration, agglomeration, and competition—that would lay out path for Rwanda to upper-middle-income status by 2035 and high-income status by 2050. Emerging from the devastation of the 1994 genocide, which itself followed three decades of economic Trade and stagnation, the country has seen its average income regional integration rise three-and-a half- fold since. This rapid progress Trade and Competitive was made possible by the second-fastest growth regional domestic integration enterprises of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on the DRIVERS OF continent, sustained over two decades. GROWTH Innovation Integration Agglomeration Competition The identified four essential drivers of growth— Modern agriculture/ Well-managed urbanization innovation, integration, agglomeration, and food sector competition—would necessitate boost from reforms Capable and in six high-priority areas: human capital, trade accountable institutions and regional integration, agriculture, competitive domestic enterprises, urbanization, and institutions. Sources: World Bank. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 15 PART TWO SCHOOLING FOR LEARNING: STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE OF EDUCATION IN RWANDA Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 17 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Summary 1. Intensify efforts to improve early grade R wanda aspires to be an upper middle-income progression and foundational competencies. country by 2035—an ambitious goal that will Rwanda could aim explicitly to ensure that all require continued dramatic improvements in children attend school regularly and progress basic education. Low-income countries that have from 1st grade to 4th grade without repeating, achieved such a lofty goal share a common thread that completers of 2nd grade are orally fluent in in their diverse development strategies: sustained Kinyarwanda and that completers of 4th grade investment over many decades to universalize are able to read with comprehension. Practical basic education, with an initial focus on equipping steps for implementation include: expanding all children with basic competencies in language, access to pre-school, including better nutrition to mathematics and science, and progressively aiming reduce pervasive stunting among young children; higher, for later cohorts to attain internationally tightening school- and district-level management competitive levels of learning. How Rwanda can of the early grade; capping class size at no more build a similarly solid foundation to keep its economy than 50 students per class by hiring new staff, and growing rapidly over the next several decades is the expanding affordable, proven models of early focus of this note. grade instruction. Rwanda has a functioning basic education system 2. Remove two key impediments to learning and that must now aim higher, toward delivering school continuation in basic education. The schooling for learning.14 Realizing the desired first pertains to the language of instruction result requires policies and programs that enable, (LOI) which switches, under current policy, from Kinyarwanda to English from Grade 4 onward. encourage and sustain perseverance of effort by Because of teachers’ limited grasp of English, a teachers and their managers, as well as by students more pragmatic and effective approach is to delay and their parents. It also requires tackling some of the the transition to English, to Grade 5 or even Grade fundamental impediments to system performance: 6, while taking steps to create conditions for a insufficient coordination on strategic actions for successful switch in each school (e.g., through basic education, institutional inertia hampering targeted teacher training packaged with remedial initiative and innovation in the education system; teaching, and well-sequenced textbooks and gaps in the management of material and human materials). The second impediment relates to costs resources, especially teachers and their instructional and poor quality of services—the main reasons mentors; inadequate technical capacity; and for the 18-percentage point dropout in the patchy participation in the time-absorbing transition between primary and lower secondary process of learning-by-doing for continuous schooling. Promising policy responses include: improvement throughout the system. Fortunately, locating schools closer to rural habitations; pro- these challenges are not insurmountable. Two poor conditional cash transfers and related World Bank publications in 2018 highlight specific publicity campaigns on the benefits of schooling. recommendations for action.15 For Rwanda, these Looking ahead, Rwanda may also consider: using implications suggest four priorities for action: technology to enable cost-effective teaching of For key characteristics of the education system in Rwanda today see Govt. of Rwanda (2017). 14 Bashir et al. 2018; and World Bank 2018. The former offers an in-depth comparative perspective to frame Rwanda’s reform agenda, highlighting 15 experience elsewhere, particularly in Africa; the latter contextualizes this agenda in light of the country’s long-term goals. 18 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda lower secondary mathematics and science and monitoring school progression and learning abolishing end-of-cycle examinations at Grade 6 outcomes, especially through participation in as a structural impediment to school continuation. regional or international studies, is essential for greater accountability throughout the system, 3. Strengthen the professionalism of teachers, based on objective benchmarks for results. instructional leaders and their managers. Ample research findings from Sub-Saharan The discussion below presents the case for the African countries suggest the following possible foregoing recommended priorities. It contains approaches to increase the competence of Rwanda’s two broad sections: the first, a succinct diagnostic teacher workforce: (a) for serving teachers, provide summary of the current status of basic education in structured teacher guides and competency-based Rwanda; and the second, specific actions to steer the training options, along with career progression system in the desired direction. pathways; (b) for low-performing teachers, offer options for improvement and exits for those falling 1. Status of schooling and learning in short of minimum professional standards; (c) for Rwanda prospective teachers, provide pre-service training aligned to the national curricula and priorities for student learning; and (d) for school directors and R wanda’s education system has recovered remarkably from the 1994 genocide, a disaster that had left its schools destroyed, damaged or instructional leaders, strengthen career incentives looted, and teachers and students traumatized if and specific training for their role as managers, not killed. In the aftermath of the calamity, the system mentors and coaches of teachers. Other aspects had to be “restarted from zero” (Cantwell 1997). of teacher management also require attention, Classrooms and entire schools had to be rebuilt, notably: minimum qualifications for recruitment; rehabilitated and refurbished; parents persuaded to teacher workload and staffing norms; and pay return their children to school, and new teachers and structure and pathways for career progression. other personnel recruited to replace those who fled or died (Obura 2003). The content of schooling had to 4. Increase public spending on schooling for learning be redefined for a new Rwanda, the work of teachers and strengthen implementation capacity. Rwanda re-oriented accordingly, and the management of needs to spend more on basic education. An the system re-organized and re-established. Much important priority is to ensure that all schools progress has been achieved in the quarter century possess minimally conducive conditions for since 1994. The stock of functioning schools and teaching and learning, based on an agreed classroom has increased in tandem with the increase package of these conditions. More resources will in population; the curriculum has benefited from also be needed to cope with a significant projected several rounds of revisions; and a system for recruiting increase in lower secondary enrollments in the and training teachers, staffing schools, and managing coming years. Ensuring that resources do indeed the teacher workforce is now in place. Rwanda has reach schools will require better procurement and also institutionalized the process for reviewing and financial management at all levels of oversight. In preparing policies and investment plans, for aligning core areas of education administration, MINEDUC’s donor financing for education, and for routine own technical capacity must grow to tackle its reporting of selected indicators of progress. increasingly complex mandate. Measuring and Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 19 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Sustained increases in incomes in post-genocide recent history of rapid expansion of coverage. Its out- Rwanda provide a favorable context for continued of-school rate of 13.5 percent in 2013 had declined to development of the education system. The real just 4.1 percent in 2016.16 per capita GDP had stagnated at less than $430 for nearly a decade before the genocide but had Yet, comparisons with middle and high-income climbed rapidly after 1994, surpassing the highest countries whose ranks Rwanda aspires to join pre-genocide level by 2005 and more than doubling reveal the magnitude of the country’s unfinished the 1998 level by 2015. The country has clearly agenda for coverage in basic education. Primary been making extraordinary efforts to build a broad- and lower secondary school completion rates are based education system as its economic conditions comparable to levels in other low-income countries improved. Enrollments in primary education grew but fall far short of the rates in middle- and high- rapidly, at a slightly faster pace than in the pre- income countries (Figure 2.1). The comparisons put genocide years. By 2002, the number of primary in perspective the long the long ahead of Rwanda, school children had swollen to 1.5 million, about 50 especially in lower secondary education. percent more than in 1992, the last year before the Figure 2.1: School completion rates in Rwanda compared with genocide for which enrolment data are available; group averages for countries by income, 2016 and it grew further to some 2.4 million by 2012, an 99 100 93 94 increase of nearly 60 percent in just 10 years. 82 80 % of relevant age group 1.1. Coverage of basic education in comparative 67 67 perspective 60 Based on gains in coverage and completion rates in 40 35 38 primary education between 2000--2013, Rwanda today is in the second most advanced of four 20 groups of sub-Saharan African countries. The four 0 Rwanda Low-income Middle -income High -income groups are defined according to three coverage- Primary Lower secondary related indicators (see Box 2.1). The country grouping Source: Data from World Development Indicators, 2017 (accessed at http://wdi. worldbank.org/table/2.10#) differentiates countries with “Established” systems, the top group, in which enrollments have stabilized That Rwanda can aim higher to universalize basic in relation to the relevant school-age population, education—which is compulsory in the country—is with only a modest share of this population still out suggested by the experience of other sub-Saharan of school, from those that lag behind to varying African countries. Bashir et al. (2018) provide degrees (Box Figure 1). That Rwanda is in the comparative evidence, based on analysis of the latest second group—with an “Emerged” system—speaks available World Bank Living Standards Measurement favorably of the impressive gains in expanding basic Survey, that show relatively high rates of entry to education coverage despite its daunting challenges first grade in Rwanda, with adjusted net intake rates since the mid-nineties. Compared with its peers in in Grade 1 estimated at 89 percent. Progression in the “Emerged” group, Rwanda has a gross enrollment subsequent grades paint a direr picture, however: ratio (GER) among the highest in the group—about only 68 percent of each cohort of Grade 1 entrants 138 percent in 2013 (Box Figure 2). Its exceptionally eventually reach Grade 6, and 38 percent, Grade 9 high GER ratio is characteristic of countries with a (Figure 2.2). These patterns lag behind other countries, 16 The out-of-school rate for 2016 is from United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics (UIS) database, accessed 2 September 2018 at http://data.uis.unesco.org. 20 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Box 2.1: Access to primary education in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan countries, 2000-2013 Sub-Saharan African countries have followed divergent paths of educational expansion. Bashir et al. (2018) identifies four groups based on the primary GER in 2000 and 2013, the share of out-of-school children, and the retention rate (the latter two indicators for the latest available year). Rwanda is in the “Emerged” group, based on cutoff levels for these indicators (Box Figure 1).a/ Variation exists across countries in each group (Box Figure 2). Box Figure 1: Gross enrollment ratios in four groups of Sub-Saharan African countries Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Country groupings Established Emerged Emerging Delayed Countries Primary GER 110 117 108 81 Lower secondary GER 87 55 55 42 Box Figure 2: Variation in indicators of access to primary education within each country group Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Established Emerged Emerging Delayed 160 140 120 100 Percentage 80 60 40 20 South Africa Zimbabwe Mauritius Ghana Congo, Rep. Botswana Kenya Lesotho Cabo Verde Namibia São Tomé and Principe Eswatini Gabon Congo, Dem. Rep. Tanzania Comoros Cameroon Uganda Togo Rwanda Malawi Nigeria Gambia, The Côte d'Ivoire Mauritania Ethiopia Zambia Mozambique Bissau Guinea Benin Burundi Sierra Leone Madagascar Angola Eritrea Niger Sudan Mali Senegal Equatorial Guinea Burkina Faso Guinea Central African Republic Liberia Chad 0 - Out of school children Gross Enrollment Rate 2000 Gross Enrollment Rate 2013 Source: Bashir et al. 2018. a / For simplicity, the Figure omits data on the retention rate which is part of the criteria for determining country group membership; those data are in chapter 1 of Bashir et. al.2018 Below are the cutoff thresholds for these indicators: Four country groups: Gross enrollment rate (%) Out-of-school rate Retention rate 2000 2013 (%) (%) 1. Established ≥ 90 ~ 100 ≤ 20 ~ 100 2. Emerged ≥ 90 ≥ 90 ≤ 20 ≤ 80 3. Emerging ≤ 90 ≥ 90 ≥ 20 ≤ 80 4. Delayed ≤ 90 ≤ 90 ≥ 20 ≤ 80 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 21 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Figure 2.2: School survival rates in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan Countries, latest available year 100 100 Ghana, 90 100 97 DRC,83 90 91 Nigeria,83 80 80 Senegal,82 72 Survival Rate 70 68 Kenya,80 60 CIV,76 56 Ethiopia,57 50 Mozambique,49 40 36 Burkina,46 30 Rwanda,38 20 Uganda,31 Malawi,16 10 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Source: Bashir et al. 2018. Note: estimates are based on microdata from the World Bank’s most recent Living Standards Measurement Study. not only those in the “Established” group (e.g., Ghana with a greater frequency of tests in which more than and Kenya), but also those in the “Emerged” group 75 percent of the test-takers attain minimum levels of (Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo). proficiency.17 The Figure includes Rwanda, based on the performance of 4th and 6th graders on a national 1.2. Learning levels test in 2011 which included items from the Early Grade Rwanda has not participated in the learning Reading Assessment (EGRA) tests administered in assessments that many other Sub-Saharan other sub-Saharan African countries. Rwanda shows countries take part in. Fragmentary evidence up as a country where 50-75 percent of 4th and 6th suggests that its children are probably learning too graders scored above the minimum proficiency level.18 little. Figure 2.3 summarizes learning assessment This rosy picture turns dismal, however, when one results from international and regional assessments considers that the minimum level is any score above across sub-Saharan African countries. Countries in the zero and that the test comprises EGRA items calibrated leading “Established” group tend to perform better for expected learning targets for 2nd and 3rd graders. Figure 2.3: Too few students in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan countries attain minimum learning levels >=75% reaching minimum pro ciency Percentage of test takers 50 -74% 25 -49% <25% Cameroon South Africa Botswana Ethiopia Côte d'Ivoire Seychelles Malawi Benin Eswatini Mali Congo, Rep. Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Lesotho Togo Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya Niger Ghana Burkina Faso Tanzania Chad Uganda Burundi Senegal Rwanda b/ Established a/ Emerged Emerging Delayed Source: Bashir et. al. 2018. Note: each of the 96 dots in the Figure represents an international or regional assessment in Reading, Mathematics, and Science, from early grade to lower secondary, and adult literacy; its color denotes the indicated share of test-takers attaining minimum proficiency on the assessment; see appendix table A1 for the assessments used to generate the data for this Figure. a / Box 2.1 explains the basis for classifying countries in the “Established,” “Emerged”, “Emerging” or “Delayed” country group; b / Rwanda’s data show 4th and 6th graders’ performance on an Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) test designed for 2nd and 3rd graders’ expected level of learning. 17 See appendix table A1 for a list of international and regional assessments in which Sub-Saharan African countries have been participating, and definitions and examples of minimum learning proficiency levels. 18 DeStefano et al. 2012. 22 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Rwanda’s own national tests reveal a very low In Rwanda, as in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, level of learning among primary school students. secondary students’ learning outcomes have not The 2011 study cited above shows that only about 30 been systematically and widely documented; percent of 4th graders tested and less than 50 percent comparative data exist for only four countries of 6th graders could read with comprehension a grade from the region. The four countries, all in the 2 level text; and that fully two-thirds of the 6th graders “Established” group, include: Mauritius, which could not answer a single comprehension question participated in the 2009 Programme for the in English, the language of instruction at their grade International Student Assessment (PISA plus) level. A 2014 Learning Achievement in Rwandan study; and Botswana, Ghana, and South Africa, Schools (LARS) II study of primary pupils shows a which have taken part, since 2003, in the Trends consistent finding of low learning achievement: in International Mathematics and Science Survey among the 2nd graders tested, only 45 percent met (TIMSS). Over time, TIMSS scores have declined the grade level expectations in Kinyarwanda, and the slightly in Botswana, the country with the highest average score for mathematics was only 33 percent; average score of the three countries and risen among 5th graders, only 45 percent met the grade steadily in Ghana and South Africa to the level in level expectations for English, and the average score Botswana (Figure 2.4). Globally, however, the three for mathematics was only 38 percent.19 These modest countries have among the lowest TIMSS scores, levels of learning are not unique to Rwanda. The with none having an average score above 400, the Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey for Kenya, low international benchmark.21 If the results for Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and these “Established” group countries are modest, Senegal, for example, reveal that at the end of 4th Rwanda’s performance is also likely to be modest— grade, less than 30 percent of the children tested especially because the foundations in primary could read a paragraph, except in Tanzanian where education are weak. nearly 75 percent of children tested in Kiswahili, the local language of instruction, could do so.20 Figure 2.4: Mathematics scores of 8th graders in Sub-Saharan Africa’s “Established” countries lag behind those of their peers’ elsewhere in the world 600 South Korea Japan United States 500 England Malaysia Lebanon Jordan Botswana (9) 400 Chile Iran Indonesia Colombia Morocco South Africa (9) El Salvador Ghana 300 Saudi Arabia 200 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 2003 2007 2011 2015 North America & Europe Asia LAC MENA SSA Source: Bashir et al. 2018. Note: test-takers in Botswana and South Africa were 9th graders, as denoted by the number in parentheses. 19 ECD 2016, cited in Honeyman 2017. 20 See Appendix Figure A1 for the data on learning outcomes in countries that participated in the SDI survey. Differences in the tests makes it difficult to compare learning levels in Rwanda to those in the SDI countries. 21 The low international benchmark of 400 for 8th grade mathematics maps to a low level of learning of the subject, one where student have some basic mathematical knowledge, can add and subtract whole numbers, and recognize parallel and perpendicular lines and familiar geometric shapes. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 23 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda 1.3. Disparities in basic education in Rwanda would help Rwanda build the kind of workforce Access to primary education is largely comparable needed to attain the country’s ambition for socio- by gender, income and place of residence but economic transformation: rapid growth, good jobs, widens considerably in lower secondary education, high incomes and shared prosperity. This shift has especially by income and urban-rural residence. begun but it needs a boost from concentrated effort Rwanda stands out for achieving gender equality in several policy areas: (i) tackling the unfinished in access to both primary and lower secondary agenda of universalizing basic education with quality; education in a region where bias favoring boys is (ii) ensuring effective management and support common. There are, however, large rural versus rural of teachers (iii) increasing financing of education gap: in lower secondary education: survey data for and focusing spending and budget processes on 2005—the latest available at this writing—show the improving quality and (iv) closing the institutional gross enrollment ratio for this level at 82 percent in capacity gap.23 While listed as separate domains urban areas, compared with only 44 percent in rural for analysis and programming, policy coherence in areas. Differences in transition rates between primary the four areas is critical for success. An important and lower secondary education reveal equally wide reason is that the challenges are often intertwined, gaps: 53 percent in urban areas, compared with 33 and solutions have spillover impacts. Low learning percent in rural areas; and 52 percent among the levels, especially in early grades, for example, may richest quintile, completed with just 26 percent in the partly explain why students drop out of school poorest (Figure 2.5). As more recent survey data become prematurely. Improving learning is thus desirable available, it is critical to monitor trends in these gaps.22 not only for its own sake but also for its potential impact on school retention, and efforts to do so 1.4. Building Rwanda’s human capital base should be monitored accordingly. Looking forward, Rwanda’s basic education system is entering basic education in Rwanda is now entering a new a new phase of development requiring a clear stage of maturity, one in which learning outcomes progression of focus from recovery and expansion is becoming as central as it is inseparable from the to gains in completion rates and learning goal of universalizing nine years of schooling for all outcomes. Accelerating this progression in attention children, which is mandated under the law. Figure 2.5: Transition rates between primary and lower secondary education by location and income group, Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan African countries Kenya, 2014 77 Kenya, 2014 62 88 Group1 Group 2 Group1 74 Ghana, 2003 94 96 Ghana, 2003 91 97 Rwanda, 2005 33 53 Rwanda, 2005 26 52 Group 2 Malawi, 2010 49 74 Uganda, 2006 28 81 Uganda, 2006 54 74 Malawi, 2010 41 64 Congo, Dem. Rep., 2007 79 89 Congo, Dem. Rep., 2007 77 90 Côte d'Ivoire, 2015 40 84 Côte d'Ivoire, 2015 58 70 Group 4 Group 3 Group 3 Mozambique, 2003 61 66 Nigeria, 2008 68 85 Nigeria, 2008 76 80 Mozambique, 2003 75 67 Ethiopia, 2005 88 89 Ethiopia, 2005 84 89 Group 4 Burkina Faso, 2003 53 64 Burkina Faso, 2003 38 66 Senegal, 2015 85 85 Senegal, 2015 78 86 100 60 20 20 60 100 100 60 20 20 60 100 Rural Urban Poorest Richest Source: based on latest available household survey data, as cited in Bashir et al. 2018. Note: the numbers 1 to 4 on the left side of each panel denote the four country groups explained in Box 2.1 above; the numbers at the end of each bar, the transition rate between primary and lower secondary schooling, computed as the ratio of non-repeaters in the first grade I lower secondary education to non-repeaters in the last grade of primary education. Data on learning gaps among Rwanda’s primary and lower secondary students are unavailable as of this writing. 22 Bashir et al. 2018. 23 24 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda The World Bank’s newly-launched Human Capital translates to only about 3.8 years, implying a learning Project (HCP) provides a comparative perspective gap of 2.7 years. that reinforces Rwanda’s need to prioritize investment in basic schooling for learning.24 The Noteworthy is that the HCI also highlights the Human Capital Index (HCI)—developed as part of high prevalence of stunting, a problem with well- the HCP—measures for 157 countries the amount of known adverse consequences on the cognitive human capital that “a child born today can expect to development of young children and their attain by age 18 … [and thus] conveys the productivity subsequent progress at school.25 About 38 percent of the next generation of workers compared to a of Rwandan children under the age of five are stunted; benchmark of complete education and full health.” the share rises to 50 percent among children in the While Rwanda’s overall HCI in 2017 is lower than the poorest households and is surprisingly high at 25 average for Sub-Saharan Africa, it is broadly in line with percent among children from the top two wealthiest expectations for a country at its income level (Figure quintiles—a signal of its pervasiveness (World Bank 2.6, panel a). Detailed information on the underlying 2018b). Causes include inadequate quantity and components show, however, that the education-related quality of food, frequent illnesses, poor maternal indicators—especially expected years of school and and child care practices, substandard access to learning-adjusted years of school—situate the country health services and weather shocks that reduce among the bottom 25 percent of countries globally the reliability of access to food. The government (Figure 2.6, panel b). Children in Rwanda can expect to of Rwanda is taking major steps to turn the tide complete 6.5 years of pre-primary and basic education on stunting, by prioritizing food security, nutrition by age 18. However, when adjusted for learning, this and early childhood development as foundational Figure 2.6: Rwanda’s human capital index and underlying components in comparative perspective, 2017 1 Singapore Korea, Rep. .8 Canada Poland United States Russian Federation Vietnam Ukraine Argentina Qatar .6 Peru HCI Brazil Indonesia Morocco Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. India Senegal .4 Ethiopia Pakistan Rwanda Nigeria Chad .2 6 8 10 12 Log Real GDP Per Capita at PPP Source: World Bank 2018a, accessed 10/16/2018 at http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/hci/HCI_2pager_RWA.pdf a. Large circles denote Rwanda, small ones, other countries; thick vertical lines and color of circles denote quartiles of the distribution. 24 Launched in October 2018, the World Bank’s HCP seeks to raise awareness and increase demand for interventions to build human capital, with the aim of accelerating better and more investments in people. The Project has three elements (i) the Human Capital Index, (ii) a program to strengthen research and measurement on human capital; and (iii) support to countries that wished to speed up progress in raising human capital outcomes. For information on the HCP see www.worldbank.org/humancapitalproject. 25 The previous Rwanda Economic Update documented the problem of stunting in detail. It laid the basis for the World Bank financed Rwanda Stunting Prevention and Reduction Project which was approved in early 2018 (details on the project may be found at: http://projects.worldbank. org/P164845?lang=en). The project is part of a multi-sectoral stunting reduction program, involving three projects totaling $184 million (in nutrition, social protection, and agriculture) supported under a partnership between the Government of Rwanda and the World Bank, the Power of Nutrition, the Global Financing Facility and the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 25 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda issues in the National Strategy for Transformation 2.1 Improving early grade progression and and Prosperity (2017-2024). It has set a bold target foundational literacy and numeracy for all districts to reach a 19% stunting rate by 2024, Rwanda needs to ensure that 90-95 percent of in line with the country’s 2018-2024 Health Strategic its children attend school regularly and progress Plan. A National Early Childhood Development from grade one to grade four without repeating Coordination Program was recently established and that completers of grade two acquire oral under the leadership of the Prime Minister to ensure fluency in Kinyarwanda, and completers of grade high-level coordination. four, the ability to read with comprehension. Swollen enrollments in grade one relative to those 2. Achieving schooling for learning in in subsequent grades characterize Rwanda’s basic Rwanda education system, a feature it shares with other U niversalizing basic education with quality presents an enormous agenda for investment and policy reform. Priorities must, therefore, be SSA countries. This “early-grade bulge” stems from the presence of overage and underage children in grade one, inconsistent school attendance, frequent established. These can be distilled by taking account repetition, and high dropout rates between grades of lessons from cross-country experience in SSA, one and two. However, the persistence of the bulge and putting Rwanda’s situation in comparative over decades—in Rwanda as in some other SSA perspective, as was done in Facing Forward.26 In the countries—reflect an underlying dynamic of children country’s specific context, the following priorities stumbling in the early grades, attending school warrant consideration: irregularly, repeating grades more frequently than • Intensify efforts to improve early grade official data suggest, and eventually leaving school progression and foundational literacy and with few cognitive skills. numeracy among 1st to 4th graders, complemented by investments to reduce stunting and support That too many of Rwanda’s youngest school for early childhood development. goers are failing to progress in the early grades, • Remove key impediments to learning and school essentially stuck in their first years at school, continuation in basic education, by delaying to is confirmed by three indicators of early grade grade five, or even to grade six, the transition to enrollment. The first of these indicators—the gross English as the language of instruction, and by reducing the cost of schooling and the quality of enrollment rate (GER)—has remain elevated for the education services. past two decades (Figure 2.7, panel a; also shown • Strengthen the professionalism of teachers, are the data for Peru, a country that faced a similar instructional leaders and managers at all levels by bulge problem as Rwanda, and whose indicator have enhancing teacher competence through training, improved significantly between 1990 and 2000). ongoing support, and better-aligned incentives Rwanda’s GER of around 200 percent, compared with for teachers and their managers. a median GER of 150 percent for SSA, signals a 100 • Increase public spending on basic education percent over enrollment. The second indicator, the and strengthen implementation capacity, by gross intake rate (GIR)—has remained at nearly 200 mobilizing and deploying the resources required percent as well in the five years since 2005 (Figure to expand coverage with quality, and deepening 2.7, panel b), with recent declines to 120 percent MINEDUC’s technical and operational capabilities in 2017 (Govt. of Rwanda 2017). High GIRs (which in key areas. theoretically counts only new entrants in numerator) The study highlights four priority areas for addressing the learning crisis in the region: (i) completing the unfinished agenda of universalizing basic 26 education with quality; (ii) ensuring effective management and support of teachers; (iii) increasing financing of education and focusing spending and budget processes on improving quality; and (iv) closing institutional capacity gaps. 26 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda reflect large shares of over- and under-aged children between grade two and grade one enrollments—has entering grade one; persistently high GIRs suggest been stagnating in the 60-70 percent range between that many of the presumed new entrants to grade 1998 and 2010 (Figure 2.7, panel c), implying that a one may, in fact, include re-enrollees who are not significant share of first graders fail to progress to counted as repeaters. The third indicator—the ratio grade two each year, but are instead exiting and re- entering grade one the following year. Figure 2.7: Early grade enrollment indicators, Rwanda and Peru, 1990-2010 a. Goss Enrollment Rate (GER) in Grade 1 a Rwanda has a highly unfavorable pattern of 250 progression in grade one. Although the repetition rate Rwanda is a more direct measure of the problem, determining 200 it accurately (i.e., accounting for hidden repetition as 150 well the open sort) requires combined household Peru and school surveys that are rarely available. The Early 100 Grade Bulge Index is an indirect measure, which needs only readily-available data on four indicators: 50 the three presented above (i.e., the grade one GER 0 and GIR, and the ratio of grade two to grade one 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 enrollments) and coverage in pre-primary education. b. Gross Intake Ratio, grade one b Such data are available for 103 low- and middle- 250 income countries, a third of them in SSA. A high negative value in the index (below -2) can be taken 200 Rwanda as a sign of slow progress in early grades. Rwanda’s 150 Bulge Index, at -5.5, is the lowest among the 103 Peru countries (Figure 2.8), reflecting a significant lack of 100 progression in children’s schooling beyond grade one. 50 Rwanda’s excessive bulge index reflects high 0 shares of underage children in grade one and 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 exceptionally large classes, a situation with serious c. Ratio of grade two to grade one enrollment consequences for learning.27 The problem stems in 1.00 Peru part from limited provision of pre-primary schooling: the corresponding gross enrollment rate for Rwanda 0.75 Rwanda in 2010 (the latest year for which comparative data are available) was 14 percent, compared with up 0.50 to 30 percent among other countries with highly inefficient early grade progression. Recent data 0.25 suggest the share has risen to 20 percent, which remains modest. As more children of preschool 0.00 age enroll, they are put in grade one classes, as the 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 dramatic rise in the share of underage children in Source: Bashir et al. 2018. a. Defined as total enrolment in grade one, including repeaters, compared with the population of the official age of entry to the grade. this grade suggests (Figure 2.9, panel a). The trend b. Defined as the total number of new entrants to grade one, regardless of age, as a percentage of the population of the official age of entry to the grade. 27 Crouch and Merseth 2017. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 27 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Figure 2.8: Early grade “Bulge Index” rankings for 103 low- and middle-income countries 3 Cabo Verde São Tomé and Príncipe Sudan 2 Mauritius Mali Tanzania Côte d'Ivoire Burkina Faso 1 Guinea Gambia, The South Africa Ghana Niger Senegal Zimbabwe Eswatini 0 Namibia Botswana Early Grade Bulge Index Comoros Equatorial Guinea Congo -1 Lesotho Central African Republic Cameroon Congo, Dem. Rep. -2 Angola Benin Chad Togo Sierra Leone -3 Ethiopia Burundi Guinea-Bissau -4 Uganda -5 Madagascar Rwanda -6 Source: Bashir et al 2018. Note: the index is computed from principal components analysis of data for 2010 for four indicators: grade one GER and GIR, ratio of grade two to grade one enrollments, and the pre-primary coverage. is likely to be sustained in a context of high fertility among Rwanda’s youngest children, is critical rates—averaging slightly above four live births per for promoting children’s readiness to learn woman at present—and scarcity of affordable pre- when they start grade 1. International research primary education and childcare options. In this suggests that holistic interventions can support setting, primary schools are effectively forced to children to reach their full developmental absorb large numbers of underage children, creating potential (Engle et al., 2007; Maalouf-Manasseh et conditions of serious overcrowding. Although class al., 2015).29 Global experience shows that home- size is not the only condition for improving learning, based rather than center-based approaches can a class size exceeding 50 makes it virtually impossible be more effective in providing early stimulation to learn in the early grades.28 The implicit absorption and improving parenting skills. Rwanda has of preschoolers into grade one also ignores the fact many home-based ECD programs that are now that most primary school teachers in Rwanda are not being scaled up with support under World Bank- equipped to provide developmentally appropriate financed operations as part of broader efforts instruction to underage children among their by the country’s development partners (World charges. The combined impact shows up in frequent Bank 2018b; Appendix 1). repetition among both under-aged on on-time • Tighten school- and district-level management children in grade one: 50 and 39 percent, respectively of the early grade “bulge” by clarifying (Figure 2.9, panel b). Predictably, learning outcomes expectations on age-grade norms and are compromised, as the available data on test scores monitoring key indicators closely for each reported earlier, albeit scanty, suggest. school and district. The highly specific focus has been used with success by Peru and South How Rwanda can do better Africa to bring their early grade bulge problem • Expand access to early childhood development under control within a decade or so. South and preschool services. Such services, including Africa’s experience is well-documented and nutrition to reduce the pervasive stunting provides key insights, particularly regarding 28 Data on class sizes are unavailable for Rwanda as of this writing. Stefano et al. (2012) report, based on their small sample of 17 schools, class sizes in the range of 13 to 64 students, with 80 percent of the sample classes having between 30 and 50 students. 29 Holistic early childhood development promotes mental and physical growth in diverse settings (e.g., homes, schools, and the community) through a wide range of activities, including childcare, nutrition for pregnant mothers and young children, and parenting education. 28 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Figure 2.9: Grade one enrollments by age and repetition rates, Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990s and latest available year a. Percentage distribution of grade one enrollments by age 100 18 90 27 34 38 80 40 41 44 45 46 46 46 47 49 50 51 52 52 52 70 60 60 61 64 66 33 71 Percentage 60 80 81 41 50 42 40 40 28 36 41 36 42 33 32 63 30 47 41 59 39 20 40 54 49 23 32 20 40 34 32 29 2000 7 13 25 25 10 20 20 1997 0 19 19 16 16 16 14 13 2014 12 2014 10 2015 10 2007 8 Previous 8 1992 6 0 1994 0 1993 1993 2015 2014 1992 2013 1995 2014 2015 2015 1990 2013 2013 1993 1993 2014 Latest Ghana Kenya Rwanda DRC Malawi Uganda Mozambique CIV Nigeria Ethiopia Senegal Burkina Faso Average Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Under age Ontime Overage b. Repetition rates in grade one, latest available year 80 77 71 69 70 60 50 50 46 Percentage 39 39 40 36 30 29 29 30 20 20 17 15 12 13 12 12 12 14 11 9 10 6 6 6 3 2 4 3 0 0 Under age Under age Under age Under age Under age Under age Under age Under age Under age Under age Overage Overage Overage Overage Overage Overage Overage Overage Overage Overage Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Ontime Kenya Ghana Uganda Malawi Rwanda DRC Mozambique Ethiopia Burkina Faso Senegal Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Source: Bashir et al. 2018. policy implementation. Following its example, Rwanda’s high fertility rate, averaging just above Rwanda might consider the following actions: 4 live births per woman at present, achieving (a) communicate clearly to each school explicit the target for class size would require hiring expectations on age-grade norms and require more teachers or assistants, and possibly also school managers to monitor and report student substantial investments in additional classrooms. progression in early grades; (b) monitor annually Identifying low-cost construction models will, at the national and local levels, the three therefore, require close attention. indicators that show inefficient progression in • Expand affordable, proven early grade early grades (gross enrolment ratio in grade 1; instructional models so that all children are gross intake ratio in grade 1; and ratio of grade orally fluent in Kinyarwanda by end of grade two to grade one enrollments). In addition, two and reading with comprehension by end South Africa’s success also stems from its efforts of grade 4.30 Examples of good instructional to cap class size in grades 1 and 2 at no more training programs are now available across than 50 students to create minimally conducive Sub-Saharan Africa, often initiated by non- conditions for teaching and learning. Given governmental organizations, including Literacy 30 According to Abadzi (2008) fluency requires learners to read at 45-60 words per minute by the end of 2nd grade fluent. While the speed will probably differ in Kinyarwanda, it is unlikely to be significantly slower. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 29 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Boost in Rwanda (Friedlandher et al. 2016) language ability, French was reinstated as the LOI. and also in other SSA countries;31 and Tusome Following the genocide, a new policy allowing (“Let’s Read”) in Kenya.32 Building on its own schools to use either French or English for instruction experience and in view of the urgency of was in effect during 1996 to 2008. A new policy in the challenge, Rwanda could consider the 2008 made English the LOI from grade 4 through following practical strategies: (a) introducing university. French, an official language of the country, an accelerated reading program in grade one, is taught as a subject through university (Nzabalirwa, with pupil-workbooks, to teach the alphabet 2014; UNICEF 2016.33 and phonemic awareness in 100 days; (b) providing a package of graded supplementary Most Rwandan children have not yet mastered reading materials in Kinyarwanda to every class reading in Kinyarwanda by grade four and could to practice reading; (c) changing instructional benefit from a delayed switch to English as practice in early grades to encourage students the language of instruction to improve overall to practice reading and numerical skills; and (d) learning outcomes. There is agreement among providing teachers of students in early grades education experts that children to learn to read explicit training, along with simple teacher more efficiently when they do so in a familiar guides and on-going coaching and support. language (Nation 2006). Beyond acquiring basic literacy and numeracy skills, children also need 2.2 Remove key impediments to learning and to gain sufficient mastery of their own language school continuation in basic education to study more complex topics, including another Two key impediments are particularly relevant in language—a process that typically requires six Rwanda: the language of instruction and the costs years of schooling (Ouane and Glanz 2011; Trudell and quality of schooling services. 2016). In the early grades, therefore, the goal is to get all children to the point where they can 2.2.1. Manage implementation of the language of “read to learn.” That they can more easily get there instruction policy in a pragmatic fashion when taught in a familiar language, usually their Rwanda’s current language of instruction policy mother tongue or the local vernacular (referred stipulates the use of Kinyarwanda in grades one to here as the home language), is demonstrated to three, then English from grade four onward. in data from 49 countries that participated in the Since independence in 1962, Kinyarwanda has been 2011 Progress in International Reading Literacy the language of instruction (LOI) in the first three Study (PIRLS) (Mullis et al. 2012). Data from SSA grades of schooling. There have been significant countries conform to this pattern (Figure 2.10). policy shifts, however, regarding the LOI from grade Children taught in the home language score four onward (Samuelson and Freedman 2010; World significantly higher—in grade two, based on data Bank, 2011). Until 1978, it was French; and during for 10 Francophone countries, by an average of the country’s “Rwandazation” period (1978 to 1991), 0.63 standard deviations in mathematics, and 0.72 French was replaced by Kinyarwanda for instruction in reading; and in grade 6, based on data for 25 through grade 8. In 1991, in response to nationwide countries across the continent, they score higher examination results indicating poor overall French by an average of 0.38 and 0.48 standard deviations, 31 The program is active in 30 countries around the world; for more information see: https://www.savethechildren.org/us/what-we-do/global- programs/education/literacy-boost 32 For more information see https://www.usaid.gov/documents/1860/tusome-early-grade-reading-activity. 33 UNICEF 2016. 30 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda respectively, in the two subjects.34 The impact of the system from grade four onward, would help language persists to lower secondary education, as rationalize the deployment of English teachers, and data for Botswana and South Africa, the only two enable more intentional and effective targeting of SSA countries that participated in TIMSS 2015, show. investments in teacher development to build up the Students who never use the language of the test at cadre of teachers with the relevant competencies home score lower—significantly so in South Africa—a in English. More importantly, delaying the switch pattern consistent with international experience. from Kinyarwanda would allow children to make better progress in their studies in all curriculum Most Rwandan teachers in the upper primary areas, including English as a subject. grades have only a rudimentary grasp of English themselves, complicating the switch to English How Rwanda can do better as the language of instruction from grade four • Implement the existing LOI policy in a onward. According to a 2014 study only 43 percent pragmatic manner, taking into account of the teachers assessed had an “intermediate level” teachers’ current language proficiency and of competency in English.35 In practice, therefore, creating a systematic plan to address the instruction in the upper grades in Rwandan schools gaps. Such a plan would: assess teachers’ and continue to be offered in Kinyarwanda. This de students’ grasp of English in grade 4 against facto situation could be better managed, however, the relevant competency benchmarks; map out to take account of the practical constraints on the distribution of teachers according to their implementing the country’s LOI policy. Making language proficiency; target training and existing English a subject for the first 4 or 5 years of a teaching materials accordingly; and continue to child’s schooling, rather than the LOI throughout invest in curricula development and continuous Figure 2.10: Language of instruction in basic education and test scores in Sub-Saharan Africa (a) Average test score advantage for 2nd and 6th graders taught (b) Lower secondary average math scores by frequency of students in their home language a speaking language of assessment at home b 437 0.63 International average 458 Grade 2 484 0.72 361 Botswana 392 408 0.38 Grade 6 325 0.48 South Africa 356 416 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 200 300 400 500 Mathemathics Reading Never Sometimes Always/Almost Always Source: background analysis for Bashir et al. 2018. a. The findings are based on 2014 PASEC data for 2nd and 6th graders from 10 francophone SSA countries, and on 2007 SACMEQ data for 6th graders from 15 countries in eastern and southern Africa. The x-axis is denominated in units of standard deviation. b. Only two SSA countries, Botswana and South Africa, participated in TIMSS 2015. The data show the average mathematics scores of 9th graders in these countries and the international average for 8th graders in the 64 other countries or participating systems. The x-axis is denominated in TIMSS international score points, with the following benchmarks for performance levels: 625 for Advanced, 550 for High, 475 for Intermediate, and 400 for Low. Each benchmark is separated by 75 points. Note: PASEC = Programme d’analyse des Educative de la CONFEMEN (Conference of Ministers of Education of French-speaking Countries. SACMEQ =Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Education Quality. TIMSS = Trends in Mathematics and Science Study. 34 The reduction in the impact of home language instruction in the higher grade is a pattern observed in other countries as well and may reflect higher rates of dropping out among underperforming students. 35 Clist et al. 2015 cited in World Bank 2019. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 31 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda assessments to improve the design of the countries such as Ethiopia and Tanzania could program. Extending the period of transition to also be tapped to guide Rwanda’s efforts in the English could be considered for schools lacking coming years.37 conditions for immediate implementation. Such schools could be supported through targeted 2.2.2. Removing barriers to higher rates of transition support (e.g., provision of remedial teaching between grade 6 and grade 7 for children with appropriately sequenced Supply- and demand-side factors work in textbooks and materials). As important as the combination to increase dropout rates between plan’s technical soundness is public support grades 6 and 7 in Rwanda and widen urban-rural for it, notably support from parents, teachers, and rich-poor gaps in participation rates in basic and others. Consultation and buy-in from education. Supply-side factors include lack of nearby key stakeholders, along with evidence from schools and poor-quality schooling; and demand- what is going on in classrooms, is essential side ones, high out-of-pocket expenses and children’s to guide resource deployment, and sustain forgone labor at home, on the farm or in the family implementation for results. business. Recent household surveys in sub-Saharan • Scale up cost-effective models of English African countries, including Rwanda, offer pertinent language training for teachers, including insights. Nearly 60 percent of Rwanda’s lower development of instructional materials. secondary students in rural areas live more than 3 Rwanda can draw on its own experience as kilometers (or more than a half hour’s walk) from the well as those of other countries with successful nearest secondary school—among the highest level results in implementing LOI policies. The among SSA countries (Figure 2.11, panel a). Although Rwanda Education Board (REB) has been distance is rarely cited as a reason for dropping out leading efforts, in collaboration with partners, (panel b), parents who send their children longer to implement the country’s LOI policy. Examples distances for school are likely reckon travel time include: (a) the five-year Literacy, Language among the costs of schooling. Costs of all kinds are and Learning Initiative (L3) launched in 2011 in fact the single most often-cited reason—by 40 with funding from USAID and technical support percent of Rwandan parents for boys, and 36 percent from the Education Development Center to for girls. Quality issues add 26 and 23 percentage develop instructional materials in Kinyarwanda points, respectively, making these two factors the and English and to improve teacher capacity; most prominent reasons given for dropping out. (b) the Literacy Boost program, supported by Save the Children and World Vision, with A further bottleneck to lower secondary education a focus teacher training and support, and is the examination at the end of the primary cycle. In community engagement (Friedlandher et al. Rwanda, as in many SSA countries, this examination 2016); and (c) the School-based Mentoring is considered “high stakes” because it regulates Program introduced in 2012 with support from the access or placement of students into the next the British Council to support teachers’ use of education level. Countries that have consolidated English for instruction in in the classroom.36 All primary and lower secondary into a single “basic these programs can be distilled for ideas on education” cycle of about nine years of schooling scaling up across all schools. The experience of have typically eliminated examinations at the end For more details, see https://www.britishcouncil.org/partner/track-record/rwanda-english-action-programme 36 See Appendix 2 for highlights of Ethiopia’s experience with local language instruction. 37 32 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Figure 2.11: Distance, cost, quality and other impediments to lower secondary schooling in Rwanda and other Sub-Saharan African countries, by country group, early to mid-2000s a. Percentage of urban and rural children of lower secondary age living more than three kilometers or a half hour’s walk from the nearest secondary school 80 66 67 58 60 55 45 44 45 42 41 40 33 32 33 31 31 26 27 21 22 19 19 20 11 3 0 Ghana, 2013 Congo, 2011 Uganda, 2014 Rwanda, 2010 DCR, 2012 Malawi, 2013 Burundi, 2013 Gambia, 2015 Nigeria, 2013 Ethiopia, 2013 Burkina Faso, 2014 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Rural Urban b. Percentage distribution of reasons given by parents on why boys and girls of lower secondary school age drop out of school a 100 16 < 12 < 14 < 15 19 24 25 27 32 33 12 < 14 36 37 37 40 80 42 45 49 12 < 55 < 59 23 66 < < 77 23 < 16 60 < < 15 < < 11 < 27 26 29 19 < 23 38 24 18 < 20 40 15 << 72 33 70 < 14 < 64 64 16 < 39 << 30 31 46 24 41 20 < 39 36 < 16 < 26 24 24 20 17 16 12 11 10 < < < B G B G B G B G B G B G B G B G B G B G Kenya DRC Rwanda Uganda Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Mozambique Nigeria Burkina Faso Senegal Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Costs Distance Quality Too young Marriage Others Source: Bashir et al. 2018, based on analysis of the latest World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) and country Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. a. “Quality” regroups three reasons: (a) students do not see the value of education and are therefore not interested; (b) parents do not see the value of education and therefore do not want to send their children to school, or (c) student has failed an examination. Note: for definitions of country groupings see Box 2.1; the symbol “<” denotes percentages less than 10%; B=Boys; G=Girls. of the primary cycle (Bashir et al. 2018). Removal percent by 1990. Mauritius, another Group 1 country, of this structural impediment addresses several has also abolished its Certificate of Primary Education possible problems, including the misallocation of examination, starting in 2017, as part of its Nine Year instructional time devoted to “teaching to the test;” Continuous Basic Education reform. erosion of the credibility of the examination system because of cheating and other malpractices; and How Rwanda can do better manipulation of the process (e.g., schools limiting • Reduce the costs of schooling and improve examination takers only to students who are likely to the benefits perceived by students and their perform well) in ways that undermine equity goals families. Options for raising transition rates from in education. Botswana’s experience illustrates the grade 6 to grade 7 and encouraging perseverance benefits of eliminating the end-of-cycle high-stakes to grade 9, the end of basic education, include: examination: following abolition of its Primary School (a) locating lower secondary schools closer to Leaving Examination in 1987, the effective transition rural habitations, by reworking, if necessary, rate from primary to lower secondary education the school map for new schools or classrooms; jumped from 57 percent in that year, to nearly 90 (b) targeting conditional cash transfers to poor Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 33 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda households, especially in rural areas, to offset the the example of countries like Botswana and direct and indirect costs of school attendance; Mauritius—both Group 1 countries—where (c) improving the conditions for teaching and the measure was adopted as part of the effort learning in schools, especially those serving to universalize basic education. As Rwanda underprivileged populations, including separate makes progress with improving continuation toilets for girls, electricity supply, competent rates in the primary cycle and student learning, teachers, and learning resources; and (d) targeting abolishing the grade 6 examination could the parents of at-risk children for communication also be considered to let more primary school campaigns about the benefits of schooling and leavers continue with their schooling for three addressing their concerns. more years. • Use technology to enable the cost-effective teaching of lower secondary mathematics 2.3 Strengthening the professionalism of teachers, instructional leaders and their managers and science. Like most Sub-Saharan African countries, Rwanda needs to prepare for a Teachers are the main channels for service massive expansion of enrollments in lower delivery; their professional competence is secondary education, as more children therefore paramount for achieving Rwanda’s complete primary schooling and continue to aspirations for basic education. Setting appropriate the next level. Traditional models of secondary recruitment standards matter for the quality of schooling, with standard laboratory-based entrants to the workforce. The work performance science instruction and a curriculum requiring of teachers depends not only on their training and intensive use of specialized teachers, may professional development, but also on the material prove unaffordable to scale up; instead more and technical support offered by instructional cost-effective alternatives will be needed to leaders and school managers, and on the incentives accommodate the projected expansion of embedded in opportunities for career progression. enrollments, including adding lower secondary grades to existing primary schools. Rwanda 2.3.1. Enhancing teachers’ professional competence could build on its sunk investment in laptops and their support they receive for schools and systematically explore ways Deficiencies in teachers’ knowledge of subject to leverage this technology to reduce service content and of pedagogy, and as well gaps in delivery costs while improving instructional practical teaching skills are a concern. Direct quality. It could take advantage of, for example, evidence of deficient teacher skills is sparse for open source online curricula materials, Rwanda, but ample research findings exist from technology-aided methods to fill gaps in other countries that provides useful insight. Analysis teacher knowledge, and big data approaches to of SACMEQ surveys shows a strong positive link embed formative assessment in teaching and between teacher subject knowledge and student test learning in the classroom. Experimentation, with scores (Bietenbeck, Piopiunik, and Wiederhold 2017; monitoring and evaluation, could help identify Hungi 2011; Altinok 2013). Westbrook et al. (2013), options suited for conditions in Rwanda. in an extensive review of findings from numerous • Abolish the grade 6 national examination low- and middle-income countries, including many to improve the transition rates between the in SSA, show that students learn more when taught primary and secondary cycles. In eliminating by teachers with good teaching skills (e.g., ability to the examination Rwanda would be following adapt teaching to students’ learning needs, use of 34 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda multiple strategies to engage students, including Accessible and ongoing coaching of teachers giving feedback, asking open-ended questions, by their school heads and instructional leaders and taking steps to create a conducive learning has also emerged as a promising alternative to environment in their classroom). With regard to traditional models for teachers’ professional teachers’ level of professional competence, the development. Used with good results in developed available data paint a sobering picture, including in countries, including China, Singapore and the US, countries in the “Established” group whose education systematic coaching is now also being tried in some systems are more mature than those of countries in SSA countries. In South Africa, it boosted student the “Emerged” group in which Rwanda belongs. In learning by more than double the size associated with Kenya—the country with the best results on the World more traditional teacher professional development Bank’s Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) surveys— (Cilliers and Taylor 2017). In Kenya, the government grade four teachers averaged only 63 percent correct is repurposing existing school inspectors as coaches on the language test, 77 percent on the mathematics to teachers in schools (Gove, Poole and Pipe 2017). test, and just 35 percent on the pedagogy test. SACMEQ and PASEC countries implicitly recognize Classroom observations also show the prevalence the role of school heads as coaches and instructional of teachers relying on a limited repertoire of basic leaders by documenting how frequently they teaching practices.38 provide pedagogical advice to their teachers, or how frequently they meet with their teachers on quality Tackling deficiencies in teachers’ professional issues (Bashir et al. 2018). competence through “structured pedagogy” rather than in isolation is a promising way to How Rwanda can do better boost student learning. Structured pedagogy is • For serving teachers, equip them all with defined as a package of teacher training, ongoing clear, easy-to-understand, structured teacher teacher support, resources or materials for teachers, guides and offer a menu of competency-based and classroom learning materials for students (Bashir training options and pathways for career et al. 2018). Rigorous evaluations in Kenya, Liberia, progression. It is important to link the teacher Mali, South Africa, and Uganda estimate that it guides to student textbooks and other teaching boosts student learning outcomes by an average of materials, including formative assessment 0.28 standard deviations, far ahead of the next most items. Offering a menu of training options effective intervention, extra learning time, which recognizes that the teacher cadre is diverse in delivers an impact of just 0.18 standard deviation (in terms of teachers’ initial level of knowledge Ethiopia). Recent studies in more than a hundred- about their subject and related pedagogy. multiple low-middle- and high-income settings The menu helps improve the match between highlight the effectiveness of certain types of teacher teachers’ professional development needs and training. Such training if sustained over time instead the training they receive. It situates teachers of being offered sporadically through short-duration along a career path they can follow in steps, seminars on general topics; responds to teachers’ with the potential of reaching levels of expertise specific needs; focuses on concrete tasks; includes sufficient to compete for expert positions in mentoring for novice teachers and encourages peer critical priority areas (e.g., early grade reading learning (Evans and Popova 2016; Popova, Evans and and mathematics, lower secondary mathematics, Arancibia 2016). science and international languages). As such, Evidence on secondary school teachers’ professional competence is rare. A small sample of Rwandan teachers—all with university degrees—took 38 40-item tests in mathematics and the sciences in 2018 pitched at the level of high school tests in the US, as part of their participation in the World Bank’s Mathematics and Science for Sub-Saharan Africa (MS4SSA) initiative. Correct answers among them averaged about 70 percent. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 35 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda the menu of training options becomes part of • For school directors and instructional leaders, the incentive system for teacher development. strengthen incentives and offer specific It could help shift the onus of professional training for them to fulfil their role as managers, development toward greater ownership by the mentors, and coaches of teachers under their teachers themselves. care. Teachers become more effective by honing • For low-performing serving teachers, provide their teaching skills on-the-job with guidance pathways for improvement through training, from managers and instructional leaders who mentoring and support, and allow for exits for are accessible on-site, technically competent those failing to reach minimum professional to offer the help needed and incentivized standards. At present, very little information to do so. Rwanda might thus consider: (b) exists in Rwanda on how widespread the problem formalizing the roles and responsibilities for of low teacher professional competence is, and instructional leaders and new teacher mentors, what specific problems the teachers face in their including school heads, center- or district- work. Such data would help establish minimum based staff (i.e., DEOs, SEOs and inspectors); (b) levels of professional competency and allow designing dedicated training for school heads scarce resources to target low-performing and academic advisors (or coaches); (c) filling teachers who can actually benefit from an leadership positions competitively; and (d) investment to develop and strengthen their recognizing and rewarding high-performing professional competency, whether through leaders and ensuring systematic sharing of training courses, mentoring or intensive support. their expertise (e.g., mandatory rotation before promotion; salary top-up to oversee a local • For prospective teachers, offer pre-service network of schools, etc.). teacher training aligned to the country’s new competency-based curricula and priorities for student learning. Pre-service teacher training 2.3.2. Professionalizing teacher recruitment and is meant to equip new teachers for teaching fostering career development and progression jobs in Rwanda’s schools. Proper governance is Many of Rwanda’s school teachers have modest needed to ensure that the programs are attuned educational qualifications, reflecting the impact to the school curricula, the textbooks, materials, of rapid expansion of teacher recruitment in the assessment tools, and instructional methods past. From 2000 and 2013, the number of teachers that the trainee teachers will actually be using in Rwanda grew by 1.5 times in primary education, in their prospective teaching jobs. Proper and 4.6 times in secondary education, the latter governance arrangement is also needed to among the fastest rates in SSA (Bashir et al. 2018). link training programs more closely with the The expansion helped staff schools with additional induction of new teachers into their first job teachers to accommodate the large increases in and to facilitate the use of digital resources on student enrollments; its rapid pace, especially at exemplary teaching practices to compensate the secondary level, might have adversely affected for the limitations one-on-one coaching for new the quality of the teacher workforce. The latest teachers. Investment in faculty development available household and labor force survey data can improve the technical quality of teacher reveal that only a third of Rwanda’s primary school training programs and the use of teachers as teachers in 2011/12 had at least a diploma-level guest faculty can help boost the programs’ qualification, compared with 100 percent in Tanzania practical relevance. and 88 percent in Uganda—countries in the same 36 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda “Emerged” group as Rwanda (Figure 2.12).39 Rwanda threshold for primary teachers (Bashir et al. 2018). is, moreover, among the few in the sample of 16 The 17-country Teacher Education and Development SSA countries with similar survey data where the Study in Mathematics (TEDS-M), conducted in 2008, tertiary-educated is a smaller share among primary suggests that this threshold might indeed makes school teachers than among clerical workers. At sense in light of concerns about teacher quality. the secondary level, about 37 percent of Rwanda’s The study tested future mathematics teachers—on teachers have a university degree (a decline from content and pedagogical knowledge—at the end of 2005, a previous survey year), compared with 64 their training programs (Tatto 2013). The test result in Tanzania and 57 in Uganda. About 36 percent of for Botswana—the only SSA country in the study— Rwanda’s secondary teachers have only a secondary is revealing. The country’s trainee teachers had all education themselves (Bashir et al. 2018). completed at least upper secondary school, yet they were among the lowest-scoring group in the study, In many SSA countries, an upper secondary averaging about half a standard deviation below the education is the official minimum qualification centerpoint score. Bashir et al. 2018 show that their Figure 2.12: Share of teachers and other educated workers with tertiary education in Rwanda and selected Sub-Saharan African countries, by group, early to mid-2010s % with diplomas or degrees % with degrees 0 50 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ghana (2012 -13) Group 1 Namibia (2013) South Africa (2016) DRC (2012 -13) Rwanda (2011-12) Group 2 Tanzania (2014) Uganda (2013-14) Mozambique (2014 -15) Nigeria (2012 -13) Cote d’ Ivoire (2013-14) Group 3 Gambia (2010) Sierra Leone (2014 -15) Zambia (2014) Burkina Faso (2013 -14) Group 4 Liberia (2014 -15) Senegal (2010) Primary teachers Clerical workers Secondary teachers Non-teaching professionals/technicians Source: Bashir et al. 2018 Note: The Figure shows results based on analysis of country household labor force survey for the year indicated in parentheses following the country name. See Box 2.1on the four country groupings. Since the 2011/12 survey, two new household’s surveys were conducted in 2013/14 and 2016/17. Neither of the two surveys was available for 39 analysis at the time of analysis for Bashir et al. (2018) and their results are therefore not reported here. However, because the focus here is on the stock of primary school teachers, the profile is likely to have changed relatively little since the 2011/12 survey. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 37 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda low score correlates with the low scores of Botswana’s By contrast, the wages of Rwanda’s secondary school students on the Trends in International Mathematics teachers are competitive with that of their peers in and Science Study (TIMSS). In an effort to boost the professional or technical jobs. Schools and teachers quality of the teacher workforce, countries such commonly report that pay is low and welcome their as Ethiopia and Ghana have established upper ability to access to other benefits, including low- secondary education as the minimum qualification interest loans (Muyombano and Mbabazize 2016). for primary school teachers.40 These countries have The modest pay of Rwanda’s primary teachers does taken steps to allow serving teachers to meet the not seem to have increased absenteeism, a rampant minimum standard through multi-year in-service problem in many other SSA countries. Yet it can reduce upgrading programs. motivation, particularly when the prospects for career progression are limited, and affect the quality The pay of primary school teachers in Rwanda is of new entrants into the profession. The large pay modest, reducing the profession’s attractiveness differential between primary and secondary teachers to better-qualified candidates. Cross-country data also makes it harder to attract good candidates to show that primary school teachers in Rwanda receive teach in primary schools. Finally, it is also useful to just two thirds the average salary of primary teachers take note of the workload of Rwanda’s primary school in low-income African countries—much lower than teachers: they are assigned by subjects, not classes, the salaries of primary teachers in Tanzania, Uganda, and typically teach two shifts of students each day and Burundi (Figure 2.13, panel a). By contrast, that school is in session. Rwanda’s secondary school teachers--in both lower and secondary levels—earn about 20 percent more How Rwanda can do better than their peers in the region. Evidence from Rwanda’s • Raise minimum qualification standards for household and labor force surveys show a consistent teacher recruitment in primary education. pattern of modest pay for primary school teachers: Focusing on primary school teachers is pertinent they earn just 42 percent that of clerical workers, the in Rwanda’s context in light of their particularly lowest rate across SSA countries (Figure 2.13, panel b). weak educational profile. Raising the minimum Figure 2.13: Teacher pay in Rwanda and in other Sub-Saharan African countries, early to mid-2010s a. Annual teacher salaries by level of education, 2013 US $, b. Hourly wages of teachers as a percentage of those of purchasing power parity b other well-educated workers b 167 Group 1 Ghana (2012-13) 168 Namibia (2013) 300 Upper Second 161 DRC (2012-13) 87 Average Rwanda 117 42 Group 2 Rwanda (2011-12) 105 Tanzania (2014) 155 Average 98 Lower Secondary Uganda (2013-14) 111 81 Rwanda Nigeria (2012-13) 116 266 242 Group 3 Cote d’ Ivoire (2013-14) 222 Sierra Leone (2014 -15) 122 Average 98 Primary Zambia (2014) 170 Rwanda 126 381 Group 4 Burkina Faso (2013-14) 500 Liberia (2014 -15) 102 122 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500 6,500 7,500 8,500 9,500 Primary Secondary Source: Govt. of Uganda-UNESCO-IIEP 2014 cited in World Bank 2019 for panel a; Bashir et al. 2018 for panel b. a. Blue dots refer to the following Saharan countries: Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. b. Primary teachers relative to clerical workers; secondary teachers, to professionals and technical workers. See Bashir et al. 2018 (Box 4.5) on Ghana’s experience, and Appendix 3 on Ethiopia’ experience. 40 38 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda to at least an upper secondary education is likely may also be inadvisable because of its likely to give teaching a boost in status. But it is clearly weak influence on teacher performance and insufficient by itself to boost learning outcomes; its tenuous link to student learning.41 A better the broader issue is about standards for teacher approach is a pay structure that rewards content knowledge, skills, and dispositions. teachers for their professional skills and impact Thus, unless the content of upgrading programs on learning, one that enhances incentives for addresses these issues, and are reinforced by teachers to upgrade their content knowledge subsequent professional support and incentives and pedagogical skills, and to give more for continuous professional growth, simply raising attention to their students’ learning progress. the minimum qualification would only increase When combined with investments in ongoing the wage bill and produce limited, if any, gains teacher training and support, the arrangement in teacher effectiveness and student learning. can help clarify career tracks for teachers, school More work also needs to be done to identify cost- heads and instructional leaders, and offer effective options for the upgrading program. concrete benchmarks defined around student • Agree on staffing norms and use them to learning needs and outcomes to contextualize rationalize teacher deployment. Staffing the incorporation of performance-based norms are the standard tool for minimizing bonuses in teacher performance contracts the influence of political and other pressures (imihigos). that may weaken the link between student enrollments and the allocation of teachers. 2.4 Increasing public spending on basic education Including them in the toolkit for teacher and strengthening implementation capacity management would help reduce the prevalence Universalizing basic education with quality will of overcrowding in some schools (which likely require more government spending, as well as implies overworked teachers) while other smarter use of the resources to provide quality- schools have a surplus of teachers. The result is a enhancing inputs. Strengthening MINEDUCs more equitable and efficient distribution of the capabilities in core areas of education administration resources represented by the teacher wage bill in will matter for success in expanding schooling for the budget. As Appendix 4 explains, significant learning under tight budget constraints. Key functions scope for improvement, based on district-level include planning, budgeting, and procurement; data showing only a loose relationship between curriculum development; human resource the number of students and staff allocations. management; data collection and applications; and use of learning outcomes as a tool for accountability • Review the pay structure of teachers, allow throughout the system. for greater career progression, and invest in ongoing teacher professional development. 2.4.1. Mobilize and deploy resources to universalize A general increase in teacher salaries may seem basic education with quality logical in light of evidence on the modest pay of teachers, especially those in primary schools. Rwanda has a well-rated system for public Budget constraints are likely to make such expenditure planning and budgeting and for an increase infeasible, but a general increase budget execution. The 2016 Public Expenditure During 2006-2015, the Indonesia government implemented a certification program that doubled the salaries of teachers who went through it. 41 According to a rigorous evaluation, the pay increase significantly “improved teachers’ satisfaction with their income, reduced the incidence of teachers holding outside jobs, and reduced self-reported financial stress. Nevertheless, after two and three years, the increase in pay led to no improvement in student learning outcomes” (De Ree e al. 2018). Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 39 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda and Financial Accountability (PEFA) ratings improved Yet, from a cross-country perspective, Rwanda on Rwanda’s already favorable scores in 2010 (PEFA underspends on education, especially on primary 2017).42 In 2016, Rwanda scored A on the orderliness education. As Figure 2.14 illustrates, Rwanda is (budget calendar); B on participation (guidance below the regression line that relates government on budget preparation) in the annual budget spending on education as a share of GDP and process; B on multi-year planning, budgeting and per capita income. Moreover, public spending on spending—a technically more complex process; primary education in Rwanda, at 30 percent of total and A on comprehensiveness and transparency of spending on education in 2014, is also significantly the budget. Rwanda’s education sector plans are smaller than the regional average of nearly 50 seen a positive model for other countries in SSA. Its percent for SSA countries in Groups 2, 3 and 4 which, budget execution capacity is also well-rated: B or like Rwanda, have yet to establish full coverage of B+ on the predictability of the availability of funds primary education. Correspondingly, spending per for commitment of expenditure, the effectiveness primary student in Rwanda is relatively modest: $103 of payroll controls, and the effectiveness of internal (in constant 2013 purchasing power parity dollars), controls on non-salary expenditure. compared with a regional average of $208 for SSA; and less than 20 percent the level of spending on This robust financial management system has secondary education in Rwanda. The modest level of enabled Rwanda to improve some aspects of the per capita spending on primary education in Rwanda material and learning conditions in schools. In translates into relatively modest pay for teachers, as 2017, practically all primary and secondary schools documented earlier; it also implies limited resources have toilets, nearly 60 percent have tap water, and for quality-enhancing inputs, particularly professional hydroelectric supply is available in more than 55 development opportunities for teachers and the percent of primary schools and in more than 70 provision of ongoing teacher support. percent of secondary schools. The number of primary pupils per textbook ratio ranges from one to four for Figure 2.14: Relation between public spending on education as a percentage of GDP and per capita income across mathematics, Kinyarwanda and English, depending on countries, 2016 grade; in the lower secondary grades, the ratio ranges 9 from one to four, depending on subject. Computers 8 Government spending on education 7 are available in nearly 70 percent of the primary 6 schools and 85 percent of secondary schools; the (% of GDP) 5 internet is accessible in 25 percent of primary schools, 4 and in more than 40 percent of secondary schools; 3 Rwanda ICT is used for teaching and learning in 44 percent of 2 primary schools, and 60 percent of secondary schools 1 and science kits have been distributed to 37 percent of 0 500 5,000 50,000 primary schools and 66 percent of secondary schools Per capita GDP, PPP (current international $), log scale (Govt. of Rwanda 2017). Beyond the global averages, Source: Data from World Development Indicators 2017, accessed at https:// datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators Note: the red line is the linear regression relating the y-axis and x-axis variables. it would be important to document their distribution PPP=purchasing power parity. across schools and classrooms. 42 The 2016 PEFA scores reflect the ratings using the “Upgraded Framework” and were directly comparable on only 14 dimensions to the scores based on the 2011 framework. The score improved for three sub-components and remained unchanged for the remaining 11 dimensions (PEFA 2017). 40 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda How Rwanda can do better • Undertake long-term, policy-sensitive • Ensure a minimum package of teaching- projections of school expansion to plan learning materials and facilities for all budgets and implementation strategy. Like schools and classes, and budget accordingly. most SSA countries striving to universalize basic Vietnam is an example of a country that education, this goal, Rwanda must prepare for developed a set of school standards which a massive increase in lower secondary school was used for budgeting purposes (World enrollments—possibly a doubling of students Bank 2011a). These standards ensured that over the next 15 years. The budget implications all schools were equitably treated and that will depend on various parameters, including schools in disadvantaged areas received assumptions about delivery models, and the compensatory funding. Defining the contents cost of material inputs, and teacher salaries of this minimum package appropriate to and their workloads. Long-term projections of Rwanda’s content is as essential as the task of alternative scenarios provide a critical tool for coordinating the logistics of implementation, strategic decision-making that links budget to ensure the arrival of integrated packages of decisions to implementation follow through materials (e.g., teacher guides and associated (see Mingat, Ledoux and Rakotomalala 2010 for student workbooks, science kits, etc.) required an example of such projections). by teachers to do their work effectively. • Review and improve procurement and 2.4.2. Augmenting MINEDUC’s capacity in critical financial management at all levels. Better areas of education administration oversight of these budget-related processes Across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, weak would help ensure that all schools have the capacity in the Ministry of Education and its resources to provide minimally conducive regional and district offices is often the single teaching and learning environments to their biggest constraint to improving the quality of students. Because poor quality services is education. Key technical skills are often very scarce a particularly important reason for student or lacking in quality—such as those for curriculum dropout in Rwanda, addressing the problem and materials development, learning assessment, through closer attention to procurement and design of teacher training programs, and so on. financial management, from the center to the Data are collected but often not used or publicized. school level, can have a high payoff in boosting Ministries of Education lack the capacity to develop school continuation and learning. Rwanda has legal frameworks and regulations; design human made progress in improving schools in terms resource policies which address incentives and of basic facilities (e.g., water, toilets, etc.). More accountability issues; manage coordination among needs to be done to fill other gaps, particularly various institutions and engage in negotiations in the “softer” areas relating to teachers, viz., with different stakeholders. Yet all these capacities ongoing training, professional development are required if the goal of quality basic education and support from instructional leaders and is to be met. mentors. Procurement of such inputs may require more coordination of effort across In SSA countries, including in Rwanda, efforts to agencies (e.g., the Finance and Education develop the capacity of Ministries of Education ministries) as well as more specialized tend to be haphazard, fragmented and dependent expertise for managing the contracts. on donor-financed projects that focus on discrete Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 41 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda activities. The World Bank’s regional study Facing Regarding coordination across institutions to Forward identifies five key domains of particular align resources and inputs, Rwanda shares this vulnerability: (a) generation and use of data; (b) problem with countries with limited mastery to technical capacity in areas linked to improving manage the inherently long chain of decision- quality at the system level; (c) coordination of making in a labor-intensive sector as education. institutions to align resources and inputs for For example, although a continuum of options for successful classroom outcomes; (d) accountability teacher training could encompass both prospective and incentives encompassing central administration and serving teachers, its design and implementation and service providers at the local level, especially at requires coordination between teacher training the school and teacher levels; and (e) negotiation and colleges and the University of Rwanda-College of consensus building with stakeholders that affect the Education—institutions responsible for pre-service implementation of policy decisions. teacher training—and REB, which is responsible for in-service teacher training on an ongoing basis—an Rwanda’s ministry of education, MINEDUC, has expectation that may be difficult to sustain in the made considerable, albeit variable, gains in absence of specific attention by policymakers. building capacity in the five domains highlighted in Facing Forward, the World Bank’s regional study. Regarding accountability and incentives, teacher Regarding data generation and use, Rwanda has a management is a particular source of difficulty functioning Education Management Information arising. In Rwanda, the problems stem, in part, from System (EMIS) that collects, consolidates and overlaps in the mandates of MINEDUC and the Ministry publishes basic data on students, teachers and schools of Local Government (MINALOC) (e.g., Honeyman in a timely manner.43 Data gaps remain, however, 2017). MINALOC decides on teacher appointments, as the EMIS reports contain no data on education deployment and evaluation, but REB sets standards finance and student learning which are collected for teacher performance and student learning in separate stand-alone data systems. Regarding outcomes. In the absence of agreed processes technical capacity, Rwanda’s institutions are less for coordination, reporting and accountability mature than those in Group 1 countries—Botswana, between the central and local actors, teachers Mauritius and South Africa, and also those in Ghana receive unclear signals about their work and their and Kenya, which lag behind them. But it has set up the focus on student learning weakens accordingly. Rwanda Education Board (REB) with a clear mandate Finally in the last area of capacity—on negotiations and responsibility for education quality. The REB and consensus building—contentious issues in has produced a competency-based curriculum now other SSA countries that require this competence being implemented in schools, and it is increasingly include: engaging teacher unions to reach involved in efforts to develop teaching materials for agreement on teacher pay, working conditions, use in schools (e.g., in lower secondary mathematics and performance evaluation (e.g., Kenya); and and science). It tracks student learning through with local authorities about staffing (e.g., Malawi), the Learning Assessment Learning Achievement in procurement and logistics management to ensure Rwandan Schools (LARS). As of this writing, the country that schools receive the teachers and materials they does not participate in any regional or international require to function effectively. assessments of student learning. Statistical reports are available at MINEDUC’s website at: http://mineduc.gov.rw/resource/statistics/ 43 42 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda How Rwanda can do better • Develop graduate-level programs at the • Create and implement a medium-term University of Rwanda to train education program to boost MINEDUC’s core capabilities specialists in key technical domains. Such for policy and program implementation. programs would help build a pipeline of Especially important at this stage of educational specialists with the relevant skills to advance the development in Rwanda are functions country’s learning agenda. Their potential scope pertaining to planning and budgeting; financial is broad: curriculum development including and project management; data collection and language of instruction policy and new subjects data usage for monitoring and evaluation; and (e.g., computer science); teacher training, human resource management.44 A systematic professional development and support; textbook program for capacity building—sustained over and learning materials development, production multiple years—would engage nationals in and distribution; learning assessment; school leadership and instructional support to teachers; learning by doing to gain hands-on, authentic school construction; and integration of ICT- experience in policy design and implementation. enabled instructional practices in the classroom. Such experience enlarges the participants’ own The programs will require careful scoping to capacity for problem-solving and contributes ensure alignment with the country’s priorities to building the ministry’s corporate capabilities. for student learning, an appropriate governance The Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening for quality assurance, and adequate funding for (FIRST) Initiative—funded by five bilateral program delivery. donors, the World Bank and the International • Participate in regional or international studies Monetary Fund--offers an instructive example.45 on student learning. Because Rwanda has An external evaluation in 2014 noted its not taken part in these studies, the country positive impact on capacity building among lacks an external benchmark for judging the the participating countries which includes quality of its human capital and its evolution Rwanda.46 Resources must be allocated for over time. Rwanda could consider, for example, this type of capacity building effort, whether participating in the learning assessments from donors or domestically financed; and conducted by the Southern and Eastern Africa the support must be provided for a sustained Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality period of time. The medium-term program (SACMEQ), which covers 16 education systems in also provides a context for encouraging peer the region. Doing so has several benefits: reveal learning, knowledge exchange, and cooperation in an objective manner the competitiveness of through communities of learning among policy- Rwanda’s workforce vis-à-vis workers elsewhere; makers and educators at multiple levels— give policymakers and other stakeholders regional, national and local. highly pertinent information for accountability purposes and increase the clarity of the country’s learning goals. 44 Rwanda has a functioning Education Management Information System (EMIS) to support many of these functions. Efforts to strengthen it can focus on connecting it to other sources of pertinent data, particularly data on learning outcomes collected elsewhere (e.g., by the Rwanda Education Board or district-level offices); on collecting and publishing key indicators associated with Rwanda’s early grade “bulge” and tracking progress in tackling the problem at various levels of administration, including at the school level; and on publicizing the results of evaluations of efforts to universalize education with quality. 45 Fredriksen (2016). 46 DPMG 2014 noted, for example, that “executing agencies were able to … produce development strategies, draft new laws and regulations” and so on. Appendix 5 extracts details from the Rwanda-specific evaluation to highlight the specific ways in which the FIRST Initiative helped build the capacity of Rwanda’s financial sector. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 43 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda 2.5 Prioritizing reforms toward schooling for the choice of priorities among the actions discussed learning throughout basic education above. Table 2.1 summarizes the foregoing ideas for Averting, and indeed overcoming, Rwanda’s Rwanda’s reform agenda and proposes a possible looming crisis of learning in basic education prioritization of actions in the short- medium- and requires a reform agenda that delivers quick long-term, as a starting point for dialogue among “wins” while building the underlying institutional key stakeholders. Some of the actions can be started capabilities to sustain systemic progress. Quick immediately to take advantage of a maturation wins provide concrete examples of tangible impact of ongoing dialogue and experience, or of readily on the schooling and learning of Rwanda’s youth; they available tools for implementation.47 Others require are vital for sparking enthusiasm and strengthening more preparatory work, intense dialogue, and cross- momentum for action by all stakeholders— ministerial commitments of resources, and agreed students, teachers, parents, community leaders, and assignment of decision-making authority.48 They will, government officials. The experience thus gained, accordingly, take more time, not only to get started when codified through intentional learning-by-doing but also to traverse the full chain of activity linking at all levels of service delivery, including among actions to visible gains in student progression and leaders, can help deepen institutional capabilities learning. Conditions can be expected to evolve and supply the practical know-how for steering and during implementation, making constant vigilance spreading successful implementation throughout and flexible responses to emerging opportunities the system. and possible setbacks integral to the process of policy reform. An annual stock-taking of progress, with The dynamism of the reform process precludes reflections on the validity of underlying assumptions an iron-clad, pre-determined recipe of short-, and possible need for adjustments in strategy and medium- and long-term actions. Yet, pragmatic methods, must, therefore, be part of Rwanda’s considerations (e.g., urgency of the problem and national project to improve schooling for learning in readiness for action), along with expectations about basic education. visible progress and their multiplier effects, can guide 47 For example, agreement exists on the need to improve learning in the early grades, and many models for early grade instruction are available, some of them already implemented with success in Rwanda, albeit on a limited scale. Rwanda also has a functioning Education Management Information System which can, with possible minor adjustments, provide the school-level data required for closer monitoring and management of the early grade bulge problem. 48 For example, school-level data will need to be gathered on the availability of a minimum package of materials and the presence of conducive conditions (including teacher competency) to inform the design of implementation strategies for investments in school and classroom construction, in-service teacher training, and in application of norm-based teacher deployment. Regarding cross-ministerial action, key among these are those relating to teacher pay and incentives, which require close collaboration with the Ministry of Finance); and control of teacher employment, deployment and promotion or dismissal (which require close collaboration with the Ministry of Local Government). In addition, engagement with teachers and with parents is essential as the success of the government’s decisions depends on their sustained support and cooperation. 44 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Schooling for Learning: Strengthening Resilience of Education in Rwanda Table 2.1: A possible prioritization of Rwanda’s reform agenda toward schooling for learning Time-Frame Priority areas and related actions Short Medium Long 1-2 years 3-5 years 5+ years A Improve early grade progression and foundational learning A1 Expand access to early childhood development a. Intensify efforts to reduce stunting among pre-primary children X X b. Expand public, community-based pre-school and school readiness programs X X A2 Tighten school- & district-level management of the early grade bulge a. Use age-grade norms in grade 1, and monitor key indicators closely for each school X b. Cap class size at 50 or fewer in grades 1 and 2 by hiring more teachers/assistants X X A3 Expand affordable models of early grade instruction a. Use accelerated reading program in grade 1, and provide reading materials to all X classes b. Change instructional practices by training early grade teachers and providing X X materials B Remove two key impediments to learning and school continuation in basic education B1 Manage implementation of Language of Instruction (LOI) policy in a pragmatic fashion a. Assess English proficiency of grade 4 teachers and students against benchmarks, X X and develop a school map of teachers’ proficiency to target training and provision of materials b. Identify and scale up cost-effective models of English language training for X X teachers, including the development of instructional materials B2 Reduce cost of schooling and enhance the benefits perceived by students and their families a. Offer lower secondary education closer to students’ homes X X X b. Use technology for cost-effective teaching of lower secondary mathematics and science c. Abolish the end-of-Grade 6 national examination X X C Strengthen professionalism of teachers, instructional leaders, and their managers C1 Enhance teachers’ professional competence and the support they receive a. For serving teachers: teacher guides, competency-based training and career X X X pathways b. For low-performing teachers: pathways for growth and exits for persistent laggards X X c. For prospective teachers: better alignment of pre-service training with their future X X work d. For school directors and instructional leaders: better incentives and customized X X training C2 Professionalize teacher recruitment and foster career development and progression a. Raise minimum qualification standards for teacher recruitment in primary X X education b. Agree workload and staffing norms to rationalize deployment, reduce double-shift X X X teaching X X c. Review pay structure of teachers, allow for career progression, invest in teacher training D Increase public spending on basic education and strengthen implementation capacity D1 Mobilize and deploy resources to universalize basic education with quality a. Define and cost minimum package for all schools and budget for it X X b. Review and improve procurement and financial management at all levels X X c. Conduct policy-sensitive projections of school expansion to assess budgets and X X X strategy D2 Augment MINEDUC capacity in critical areas of education administration a. Strengthen core capabilities (e.g., planning, budgeting, procurement, data, HR, etc.) X X b. Develop graduate-level programs at University of Rwanda in selected technical X X domains c. Participate in regional or international studies on student learning X X X Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 45 Tackling Stunting: An Unfinished Agenda 3. Conclusion for consideration, based on experience from sub- R wanda has come a long way over the past Saharan Africa and elsewhere. Four broad priorities quarter century in educational development. appear especially relevant for Rwanda. First, improve It has made a clear transition from recovery in early grade progression and foundational literacy and the aftermath of the genocide, to a new phase of numeracy; second, remove critical impediments to institutional strengthening to achieve schooling for school progression and learning, key among them the learning for all young children in the country. There transition to English as the language of instruction, remains much to be done, however. Far too many and cost- and quality-related barriers to schooling; children currently drop out before completing nine third, strengthen the professional competence of years of basic education and they are learning too little teachers, their managers and instructional leaders; at school; the combined impact of these problems and fourth, increase public spending on basic is to compromise the quality of the country’s future education and ensure wise use of the budget to workforce. According to the World Bank’s newly- deliver schooling for learning—by strengthening launched Human Capital Project, Rwanda’s Human MINEDUC’s capacity in key areas of education Capital Index is particularly weak in the education- administration, including accountability through related sub-components. The country is aware of the benchmarking of student learning. The country can challenges and has responded with relatively sound engage actively in tackling these challenges through overarching policies and plans. learning-by-doing. Doing so will deepen its capacity to sustain the reform momentum, which would be The key now is to increase attention to essential to firmly establish the country’s human implementation. Rwanda can aim higher and capital base for its socio-economic transformation in deliver better results. In this regard, the World the coming years. Persevering toward this goal is as Bank’s regional study, Facing Forward, offers ideas essential as it is promising. 46 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 APPENDIXES Appendix Table A1: International and regional learning assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa Minimum Assessment a/ Grade b/ Countries Subjects Examples of Minimum Proficiency Proficiency Reading: can locate and recognize main idea in Reading text, interpret and integrate parts of text. Level 2 and Math: can solve problems using whole numbers. PISA+ Age 15 Mauritius Math above Science: can make literal interpretations of the Science results of scientific inquiry. Math: has some knowledge of whole numbers Math Low and decimals. Botswana, International Science: has some basic knowledge of biology, TIMSS 8 Ghana, South Benchmark chemistry, physics, and earth science. Africa Science and above Interprets simple pictorial diagrams and applies basic knowledge to practical situations. Level 3 Reading (grade 6): can combine, extract and Reading 10 Franco-phone locate implicit information. PASEC 2, 6 countries Level 2 Math (grade 6): can answer brief arithmetic, Math measurement and geometry questions. Level 4 Reading: can read text, and link and interpret Reading disparate information in the text. 16 education Math: can translate verbal or graphic information SACMEQ 6 systems Level 4 into simple arithmetic operations; can use Math multiple different arithmetic operations on whole numbers, fractions and/or decimals. Reading Reading: can read a sentence aloud SDI 4 7 countries -- Math Math: can solve a word problem EGRA 2, 3 9 countries c/ Reading -- Oral reading: obtains any score above zero Source: Bashir et al. 2018. a / The assessments in this column refer to Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA; the plus sign refers to 10 additional participating countries in 2009); Trends in Mathematics and Science Survey (TIMSS); Programme d’ Analyse des Systèmes Educatifs des Pays de la Confemen (PASEC); Southern African Consortium for the Measurement of Educational Quality (SACMEQ); Service Delivery Indicators (SDI); and Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA). b / For PISA+, the test-takers were 15-year-olds. c / Includes Rwanda where 4th and 6th graders took an EGRA test for assessing 2nd and 3rd graders’ reading proficiency. Appendix Figure A1: Percentage of Grade 4 completers who can read a letter, word, sentence and paragraph, selected sub- Saharan Countries, 2000s (Percentage) 100 80 60 40 20 0 English Kiswahili Kenya Tanzania (2014 ) Togo Uganda Mozambique Nigeria Senegal Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Student can read a letter (%) Student can read a word (%) Student can read a sentence (%) Student can read paragraph (%) Source: Bashir et al. 2018. Note: data are from the Service Delivery Indicators surveys conducted during the 2000s; see Box 2.1 in the text for explanations about the four country groupings. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 47 Appendix 1: Rwanda’s Home-Based Early Childhood Development Services The World Bank is collaborating with other partners to support the Government of Rwanda’s effort to reduce stunting through a multisectoral program comprising the Stunting Prevention and Reduction Project and Strengthening Social Projection Project, both effective from 2018. Early childhood development (ECD) serves, among others, as an entry point, in line with the government’s new ECD policy. Both projects have components aiming at strengthening services provided through home / community-based ECD / childcare sites. The experience of several NGOs in Rwanda (i.e. Imbuto Foundation, CARE International) found that the home / community-based model is cost-effective, encourages parental involvement, and represents a good option for reaching children too young to attend ECD centers. Home / community-based ECD sites supported under the projects are expected to serve as models in their communities with caregiving provided by parents, fostering ownership and building solidarity. Caregiving is envisaged to be provide by a lead caretaker selected by parents and one rotating assistant (possibly a beneficiary of the Expanded Public Works home / community-based model). Parents are expected to contribute to the functioning of the home/community-based ECD groups through in‐kind contributions (e.g., ingredients for nutritious meals to be provided to children daily). Home / community-based ECD groups will receive support from Community Health Workers and other community-based proximity service volunteers (agriculture, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), friends of the family), to disseminate messages most efficiently to groups of mothers. Implementation will be gradual to allow for learning and corrective action. The project funds: training of caregivers; equipment and basic supplies; hand washing stations and latrines (as needed); and small grants. Each home/community-based ECD group is expected to comprise 10‐15 children, up to five years of age. The package of services includes early learning and stimulation, parenting/childcare education, hygiene and sanitation education, and complementary feeding and cooking demonstrations. Mothers with children under two years old represent a special target group, given the importance of reaching children in the 1,000‐day window. Parents of young children up to 24 months are expected to visit a home/ community-based ECD site in their neighborhood to discuss challenges and share practical solutions. Source: World Bank (2018c) 48 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Appendix 2: Ethiopia’s Experience in Countrywide Teaching in Local Languages The Context: A Microcosm of Polyglot Sub-Saharan Africa More than 90 languages are spoken by Ethiopia’s estimated 92 million people. However, as in many other Sub- Saharan African countries, there are several large language groups, together with a large number of languages spoken by a relatively smaller number of people. Oromo and Amharic together are spoken by about 63 percent of the population. Somali and Tigrinya are spoken by about 5–6 percent of the population, with other language groups being spoken by about 1–2 percent of the population. The Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNP) Region is the most linguistically diverse state, with an estimated 56 languages and 31 used as languages of instruction. In one respect, however, Ethiopia differs from much of the region: Because it did not have a long history of colonialism, the use of English or other European languages is not as widespread among the population as in many other Sub-Saharan African countries (World Bank 2017). Language-of-Instruction Policy and Key Results With the advent of a new government in 1991, Ethiopia adopted one of the most comprehensive language- of-instruction (LOI) policies in the region. The Education and Training Policy of 1994 called for the use of the mother tongue as the language of instruction in grades one through eight, as well as for primary teacher training to be in the relevant language. All students learn Amharic as a national language, although the policy does not indicate when the study of this language should begin. English is taught as a subject from grade one and is the LOI from grade nine onward. In practice, the states have the right to determine the grade in which English can be introduced as language of instruction, and some have introduced it in grade five or grade seven. Before the 1994 policy, all Ethiopian students were taught in Amharic. An analysis of Ethiopia’s national learning assessments in science, mathematics, and English at the end of grade eight in 2000 and 2004 found that children who were taught in the mother tongue for eight years of primary education consistently per¬formed better than those who were taught in the mother tongue for five years and in English in the upper-primary grades (Heugh et al. 2007). In SNNP, children who had learned first in the mother tongue performed better on grade five mathematics and literacy tests in English. The study used data from the Young Lives project a and exploits two sets of differences in policy implementation: (a) children transfer to English language instruction in grades seven or nine in other states, and (b) a substantial number of children in SNNP are taught in a language that is not their mother tongue (Seida 2017). Another study found that the introduction of the mother-tongue-based instruction policy in schools had a positive effect on primary school completion rates (Ramachandran 2012). The study used the Amharic language group as the control group (which faced no change after the 1994 policy) and compared it with the Oromo language group in four regions of the country where, after 1994, students could get primary schooling in their own language. Using data from the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey, the analysis showed that the change led to an increase of 0.75 to 1 year of schooling. Language Policy Implementation Ethiopia’s “trilingual” policy (mother tongue, Amharic, and English) has been implemented nationally, albeit with variation across states, through the preparation and production of textbooks and learning materials in mother tongue, training of teachers in mother-tongue instruction, and examinations conducted in the language of instruction. By 2017, 51 languages had been adopted as LOI, compared with only Amharic before 1994. All donors have supported the policy. About 106 million textbooks in seven mother tongues for primary grades and an additional 37 million supplementary materials were printed in the past 10 years under the donor- funded General Education Quality Improvement Program (Phases 1 and 2). For other languages, regions have printed their own textbooks. Because teachers are recruited by districts (woredas), native-language teachers are more easily trained and deployed according to specific language requirements. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 49 Appendix 3: Ethiopia’s Experience in Upgrading Primary School Teachers’ Qualification Ethiopia’s 1994 Education and Training Policy specified new qualifications for teachers. Teachers in Grades one to four (the lower primary or first cycle) were required to possess a certificate-level qualification (10 years of general schooling plus one year of teacher training); teachers in Grades five to eight (the upper primary or second cycle) were required to possess a college diploma (10 years of general school plus three years of teacher training). The new policy presented an enormous challenge of scale, as the majority of teachers—about 85 percent in 1996—were certificate holders. Continuing concerns about the ability and skills of teachers led the government to adjust the policy in 2004/05. In that year, the Ministry of Education discontinued the 1-year certificate program and required new teachers for both cycles of primary education to be trained through the 3-year diploma program. The policy change in 2004/05 also targeted serving teachers, thus triggering a greatly expanded program of teacher upgrading to meet the new minimum standards of qualification. Serving teachers with only a certificate-level qualification could upgrade to diploma-level qualification through a 3-year in-service program. The program requires participants to learn through self-study modules; participate in two face-to-face tutorials annually, each lasting three days; and receive six weeks of residential training each summer for the three-year duration of the program. The scale of the upgrading program was massive. In 2004/05, only 3% of the country’s 110,945 first-cycle teachers, and 55% of its 60,134 second-cycle teachers had a diploma or higher qualification. In 2016/17, the shares of such teachers have grown significantly: to 73% among the country’s 247,115 first-cycle teachers, and 95% among its 193,206 second second-cycle teachers. Because salaries are linked to teachers’ educational qualification, the upgrading exercise has increased the government’s wage bill for teachers. In the decade from 2006/07 to 2016/17, spending on teacher wages rose more than nine times, driven mainly by a 7.6-fold increase in the number of teachers with at least a diploma-level qualification, and a nearly two-fold increase in the aggregate size of the teacher cadre. The increase in teachers’ educational qualification has raised the status of teachers. More work has to be done to assess whether the modality of providing the upgrading program can be made more effective. Further, as other research shows, unless the content of the upgrading program addresses the question of changing teacher behavior in the classroom, and unless these changes are reinforced by continuous professional support as well as by greater monitoring and accountability, upgrading qualifications alone is unlikely to lead to gains in student learning. Source: Govt. of Ethiopia (1994, 2010); World Bank (2008) and staff notes. 50 Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 Appendix 4: Randomness in Staffing of Schools across Regions in Rwanda When teachers are allocated across schools with little regard to enrollments, it creates highly variable conditions for teaching and learning. The better-staffed schools can operate with favorable pupil-teacher ratios and take advantage of material resources to provide conducive environments for teaching and learning, while the worst-off schools typically struggle to do the same, often without success, in overcrowded classrooms. Analysis of school-level in Bashir et al. (2018) document the prevalence of inconsistent teacher allocation across schools in SSA countries.49 For Rwanda, recent school-level data are unavailable, but the district-level information provides some insight. These data suggest that while the number of teachers and other personnel in a district is correlated to the number of students in the district, the relationship is relatively loose in both primary and secondary education, as the corresponding regression R2 statistic suggests (Appendix Figure A2). Because of the aggregate nature of the data, the evidence is suggestive and needs to be confirmed with more detailed analysis of school-level data. Tightening the consistency of teacher distribution would help ensure that all schools are adequately staffed to reduce overcrowding in the classrooms. The budget execution process provides a useful tool for this purpose, but success will depend on agreed staffing norms established through informed negotiations among key stakeholders and decision makers at the local level. Appendix Figure A2: Number of Students and Staff in Primary and Secondary Education Across Districts, Rwanda, 2017 (a) Primary education (b) Secondary education 2,500 1,250 2,000 R² = 0.66276 1,000 R² = 0.604 1,500 750 1,000 500 500 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Source: analysis of data for 2017 in Government of Rwanda (2017). Note: the x-axis denotes the number of students; the y-axis, the number of staff. The data refer to all schools and all staff; the R2 statistic is share of staffing variation explained by variation in number of students enrolled in the district. 49 Bashir et al. 2018 use school-level data (typically from 2006-2015) to compare teacher allocation across countries. For each country for which such data exist, they estimate a linear regression relating the number of teachers to the number of students and use the regression R2 to denote the consistency of the relationship between the two variables; the complement, 1-R2, denotes the influence of factors other than a school’s enrollment on the number of teachers on staff. In Bashir e al. 2018 1-R2 is called the index of randomness. In primary education, the index ranges from less than 0.20 (e.g., Lesotho, Mauritius, and Zimbabwe, all Group 1 countries), to as high as 0.80 (e.g. Benin and Zambia, both Group 3 countries). In secondary education, it ranges from less than 0.10 in Zimbabwe, to a high of about 0.50 in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Rwanda Economic Update • Edition No. 13 51 Appendix 5: Building Capacity in Rwanda’s Financial Sector An evaluation of the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative (FIRST) project in Rwanda, prepared by the University of Southern California’s Development Portfolio Management Group, contains the following assessment of the project’s impact on various aspects of capacity in the country’s financial sector: “Over the past decade, the financial system in Rwanda has become stronger, more diversified, stable, and inclusive. Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative (FIRST) projects have contributed in a substantial way to that outcome. In Phase I and Phase II, FIRST financed 10 projects in Rwanda, two [Financial Sector Development Strategies] FSDSs and eight operational Technical Assistance (TA) grants. Total commitments amounted to just under $3 million. Two projects executed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) focused on bank regulation and supervision. Two of the other six projects dealt with insurance regulation and supervision, one focused on regulation of savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) and part of another project supported pension regulation and supervision. Other FIRST funds went to improve the payments systems, establish a credit bureau and implement recommendations made in the [Financial Sector Development Plan] (FSDP) I report … “Though catalytic in form, the many grants to Rwanda functioned more like a programmatic grant. The concentration of effort in the field of regulation and supervision and with multiple grants covering a specific area turned the individual grants into a more coherent program, making the whole something more than the sum of the individual parts. The focus on financial regulation and supervision will continue with the Phase III programmatic grant. Specifically, the new grant will support strengthening of the legal and regulatory framework for banking and insurance, increase supervisory capacity for banking, insurance, pensions, microfinance, and SACCOs and develop a crisis preparedness and contingency planning framework. One element in the programmatic grant is designed to strengthen supervision capacity for SACCOs, building largely on what has been done earlier but shifting to risk-based supervision. This is an example of a programmatic approach undertaken by FIRST in response to recommendations made by prior evaluations …. “Because the National Bank oversees most financial market supervision, the projects contributed substantially to the strengthening of that institution. Training of National Bank staff was an important component of several of the projects. However, the National Bank has had problems retaining trained staff. Much of the value of training may be lost if those people leave. 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