For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Guinea CAS/CPS Year: FY14 CAS/CPS Period: FY14 – FY17 CLR Period: FY14 – FY17 Date of this review: May 24, 2018 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. This Review of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the original period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Guinea (FY14-FY17) and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) in FY16. ii. Guinea is a low-income country with a GNI per capita of $670 in 2016 and with rich mining and water-based resources. Average annual GDP growth during the 2014-2016 period (4.6 percent) was marginally lower than during the previous four-year period (4.9 percent). Average growth was sustained despite a slowdown resulting from two major shocks: the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in 2014, which reduced international travel, investments, domestic commerce and services; and the decline in aluminum prices, which reduced Guinea’s bauxite ore export prices and revenues. Despite positive per capita growth, social development made little progress. Poverty rates were 53.0 percent in 2007 and 55.2 percent in 2012, the last year of available poverty estimates. Guinea’s Human Development Index remained flat at 0.4 from 2012 to 2015 and placed the country in the low human development category and ranked 183 out of 188 countries in 2015. Rural social conditions are particularly dire, with rural poverty rates much higher (64.7 percent in 2012) than urban rates (35.4 percent). iii. The WBG CPS had three pillars (or focus areas): (i) improving governance; (ii) stimulating growth and economic diversification; and (iii) supporting human development. WBG support was aligned with the Government of Guinea’s (GOG) 2013 National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP3) that was framed by governance, growth, infrastructure, poverty reduction, infrastructure, and social services pillars. WBG’s support was also aligned with a number of GOG’s programs, including the 2011 National Program of the State Reform and Public Sector Modernization and the National Agricultural Investment Program. iv. During the CPS period, total new commitments (or 16 new operations) amounted to $463 million. The new commitments were 162 percent above the original CPS planned amount ($177 million). The increase primarily reflected the unexpected Ebola and post-Ebola operations amounting to $192 million and covering fiscal support, health services, disease surveillance, and urban water and sanitation. All but two operations were in the form of IPFs. The other two were development policy operations (DPOs) linked to the Ebola crisis. Four IPFs were regional operations covering water resources, power, fisheries, and Ebola response. During the CPS CLR Reviewed by: Panel Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Mauricio Carrizosa Lev Freinkman Pablo Fajnzylber Consultant, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Manager, IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa, Lourdes Pagaran Senior Evaluation Officer CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group period, IFC made net commitment of US$190.5 million for seven investment projects. The largest commitment was US$130 million in the mining project. For the same period, MIGA had an outstanding total gross exposure of US$59.4 million. v. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Of the 15 objectives, three were Achieved, two were Mostly Achieved, seven were Partially Achieved, two were Not Achieved, and one Not Verified. On Focus Area I (Improving Governance), the CPS achieved its objective of improving governance in the mining sector, while progress on HRM and PFM, and service delivery was muted, and citizen monitoring of the budget could not be verified. On Focus Area II (Stimulating Growth and Economic Diversification), the CPS achieved significant improvements on access to broadband services and on regional integration and regulation of air transport; but achieved modest results on improving the performance of Guinea’s power utility, the investment climate, the institutional framework for investment, fisheries governance, and local planning. On Focus Area III (Supporting Human Development), the CPS achieved its objective of contributing to the containment of the Ebola outbreak and significant progress in establishing a functional social protection system, but little progress on education or maternal and child health and nutrition, and no progress on youth employability. vi. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The CPS addressed well-identified development challenges and benefited from congruence with GOG’s programs and consultation with multiple stakeholders. Selected CPS areas were consistent with WBG poverty reduction and shared prosperity objectives and focused on some of the most critical development issues (e.g., faltering power services) and was responsive to urgent emergency needs (Ebola outbreak). Given the country context, the program was ambitious in scope and not sufficiently selective with three focus areas, 15 objectives and 43 indicators. Planned operations included interventions (e.g., financing connection to submarine cable) that could reasonably contribute to objectives (e.g., improved access to broadband). Lending and non-lending instruments were broadly appropriate, albeit there were no core diagnostics (e.g., a CEM and a Poverty Assessment). On balance, the CPS and Performance and Learning Review (PLR) adequately identified risks and mitigation measures. All three WBG instruments (IPF, DPF and ASA) were deployed to help mitigate the unexpected risk that materialized with the Ebola epidemic. However, when capacity risks materialized (e.g., on education), mitigation through intense supervision efforts did not suffice to neutralize them. vii. The Ebola shock had adverse impacts on implementation, as it affected project monitoring and AAA, while the authorities’ priorities shifted to addressing the epidemic. Several projects incurred delays, even before the Ebola epidemic, related to capacity constraints. During implementation, there were significant changes to the results framework, due in part to the Ebola crises. Several objectives were reframed and new objectives were added expanding the number of objectives from 12 to 15. At the same time, new indicators were added, increasing their number from 26 to 43. IFC contributed to a number of objectives, but there was little documented Bank- IFC collaboration. During the review period, there were no major safeguards issues. viii. The CLR provides a number of useful lessons. IEG would like to emphasize the following three: (i) maintaining program flexibility is critical in a fragile country context; (ii) good analysis of the country’s context is essential for selecting sensible result indicators and setting adequate targets; and (iii) regular joint Bank-Government portfolio reviews help in improving program implementation. ix. IEG adds one lesson: • When responding to a major external shock such as EVD, it is important for the Bank to reassess the impact of its additional interventions on the overall program portfolio implementation and the resources required to implement the program (both Bank and client), and adjust the program ambition accordingly. In the case of Guinea, adding a new objective to respond to EVD was appropriate, but keeping the rest of the program largely intact and further expanding the number of program objectives and expected For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group results had made the program overly ambitious and reduced the chances of achieving the program’s development outcomes. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The CPS pillars and objectives were broadly congruent with GOG’s objectives on governance, growth, infrastructure, and social services, as articulated in GOG’s PRSP3 and in the GOG’s specific programs. On Governance, for example, the CPS objective to improve public financial management (PFM) and human resource management (HRM) was congruent with GOG’s 2011 National Program of the State Reform and Public Sector Modernization. Similarly, on power, the CPS objective to improve performance of the national power utility was aligned with GOG’s 2012 General Policy Declaration to ensure the energy sector’s recovery and viability. Success in achieving CPS objectives faced several challenges. Weak governance undermines development management. Poor statistics limit the design of development programs as well as monitoring of their implementation. Energy mismanagement reduces reliability of power supply. Low agricultural productivity underpins high poverty rates. Inadequate coverage of health and education services, as well as the lack of an explicit social protection system, impedes human development. 2. Relevance of Design. Most WBG interventions could reasonably be expected to contribute to the achievement of the CPS objectives. For example, support for Guinea’s membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) membership could reasonably be expected to strengthen governance systems in the mining sector. Similarly support for training and job placement services could improve youth employment. Some interventions appropriately envisaged a regional scope, including on water resources, power, fisheries, and Ebola response. Despite the limited size of planned IDA program, IDA’s impact could be significant, particularly where its operations were to address systemic issues in sectors such as PFM and power. The CPS anticipated main risks to program outcomes and planned reasonable mitigation measures. The CPS identified IFC contributions in some objectives but it was not explicit about any joint IDA/IFC activities. Nor did it plan to strengthen donor coordination or division of labor with development partners. Selectivity 3. The WBG selected CPS objectives based on its renewed knowledge of country priorities, following its 2011 reengagement with Guinea. The CPS envisaged only 12 IPF projects, covering critical areas (agriculture, education, health, jobs, governance, power, water and trade). Given Guinea’s economic and political uncertainties, the CPS was not sufficiently selective. While it was selective in terms of number of project interventions at the CPS stage (12), the accompanying CPS objectives were 12 with 26 associated indicators. The PLR increased the program lending to 20 projects, including budget support, largely in response to needs raised by the Ebola epidemic. At the PLR, the number of CPS objectives had increased to 15 and the number of indicators to 43. Alignment 4. CPS objectives were broadly aligned with the poverty reduction and shared prosperity goals that the WBG introduced in 2013. In particular, the interventions in Focus Area II (e.g., on power, telecom, the investment climate and MSMEs) could conceivably foster growth and employment, and thereby help raise incomes for the poorest 40 percent of the population (shared prosperity). Interventions in Focus Area III (on education, health, employability and social protection) could further contribute to reduce poverty. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 5. Following the Shared Approach, this assessment considers the degree to which CPS objectives (designated as outcomes in the CPS results matrix as updated at the PLR) were achieved. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group This review uses the following structure and terminology: three focus areas (CPS pillars), 15 objectives, and 43 indicators and/or targets. Focus Area I: Improving Governance 6. Focus area I had three objectives: (i) improved capacity and stronger governance systems of key institutions for managing the mineral sector, (ii) reestablished and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve public financial management and human resource management, and service delivery, and (iii) budget reform introduced including citizen monitoring. These objectives were supported by three IPF operations, one DPO, and eight IDA ASA activities. 7. Objective 1: Improved capacity and stronger governance systems of key Institutions for managing the mineral sector. This objective was supported through the FY13 Mineral Governance Support Project, and the Guinea Mining Ancillary Infrastructure ASA activities (FY16 and FY17). This objective had four indicators. • A new decree is signed which aligns SOGUIPAMI’s 1 structure with international best practice by FY17: Decree 016 issued in February 2015 aligned SOGUIPAMI’s governance arrangements with OHADA (Organization for the Harmonization of Business Law in Africa) principles. [Achieved]. • Guinea has completed its EITI 2 membership process by FY16: Guinea was accepted as 'EITI Compliant’ by the EITI Board on July 2, 2014. [Achieved]. • A new decree is adopted to clarify institutional relationship, responsibilities and mandate of SOGUIPAMI vis a vis Ministries in charge of mines, finance and transport: Decree 016 (2015) clarified those issues. [Achieved]. • Annual EITI reports are produced: Guinea issued its 2014 and 2015 EITI reports and a 2016 Annual Progress Report. [Achieved]. 8. On balance, these actions suggest that mineral sector governance has improved, although it stills ranks poorly in international comparisons (63rd among 89 countries 3). IEG rates Objective 1 as Achieved. 9. Objective 2: Reestablished and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve public financial management (PFM) and human resource management (HRM), and service delivery. This objective was supported through the FY12 Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building project and its FY17 Additional Financing, and the FY15 Macroeconomic and Fiscal Support Operation. Two PERs (FY14 and FY17), one report on budget execution, and one Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provided analytical support. This objective had three indicators: • One single HR system is established for the Guinean Civil Service by FY17: The system has not been established because the biometric data base is not updated yet. [Not Achieved]. • Discrepancies between MEPS 4 civil service database and the payroll reduced from 4 percent in 2014 to 2 percent by 2016: The CLR notes that recent data on this indicator is unavailable. However, the FY12 TA project ISR reports progress, from a 2012 baseline of 8 percent to 0.6 percent as of May 2017. [Achieved]. 1 SOGUIPAMI is the Guinean Mining Heritage Society, the state-owned mining company. It is in charge of managing the State’s participation in mining companies and issuing mining permits. https://soguipami- gn.com/presentation/. 2 Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. 3 See https://resourcegovernance.org/news/guinea-must-implement-its-legislation-make-progress-mining- governance-new-research-finds 4 Ministry of Employment and Public Service. For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group • Increase public contracts procured through open competition from 15 percent in 2014 to 55 percent by 2016: As of May 2017, the FY12 project ISR reports that 71 percent of public procurements were done through open competition in 2016. [Achieved]. • The CLR reports that “the public procurement system is generally cumbersome and slow, and many contracts are awarded through single-source contracting, which affects the credibility and transparency of the system”. Guinea’s CPIA rating for the quality of budgetary and financial management remained low at 3.0 (out of 6.0) and unchanged since at least 2008. 10. This objective has multiple dimensions (HR, PFM and service delivery). The first two dimensions were measured, but not the third dimension of service delivery. On balance, IEG rates Objective 2 as Partially Achieved. 11. Objective 3: Budget reform introduced including citizen monitoring. WBG support on budget reform included the FY12 Economic Governance Technical Assistance and Capacity Building and its Additional Financing and IDA’s trust funded FY14 Public-Sector Governance and Accountability Project. This objective had three indicators: • A budget law and a public accounts law are adopted by FY16. Guinea’s National Transition Council enacted a new organic budget law in 2012 (No. 031) and a public accounts law in 2013 (No. 046) 5. This achievement occurred before the CPS period. [Achieved]. • Budget preparation occurs following new PFM legal framework by 2017: The CLR reports that in 2017 national budget preparation began following the new organic budget law. However, the project paper for the FY17 AF (dated May 2017) reported contradictory information, indicating in one place that the target was met and, in another, that it was not fully met. [Not Verified]. • Citizen participation in budget preparation and monitoring of services delivered is institutionalized by FY17: The CLR reports that citizen participation in budget preparation and monitoring of services delivered are not effective. The ISR for the FY14 project reports that citizen engagement increased from 1 to 2 percent, but neither the ISR nor the project paper for the AF explain how this percentage was measured or constructed. [Not Verified]. 12. With budget reform introduced before the CPS period, and both budget preparation and citizen participation unverified, IEG rates Objective 3 as Not Verified. 13. Given the ratings of objectives 1 to 3 (1 Achieved, 1 Partially Achieved, and 1 Not Verified), IEG rates Focus Area I as Moderately Unsatisfactory. On mining sector governance, the CPS made good progress in taking critical steps in aligning SOGUIPAMI’s governance structure with OHADA and compliance with EITI standards. On HRM and PFM, and service delivery, there was good progress in reducing discrepancies between MEPS data and the payroll, and increasing competitive procurement, but no progress in putting in place a single HR system. There was no indicator to measure service delivery. On citizen monitoring of the budget reform, there is no verified evidence of progress. Focus Area II: Stimulating growth and economic diversification 14. Focus Area II had seven objectives: (i) improved technical and commercial performance of the national power utility, (ii) stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory Services, (iii) increase the geographical reach of broadband networks and reduce the costs of communications services in West Africa, (iv) improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment climate and improved financial systems, and (v) improved institutional framework to broaden investment opportunities, (vi) enhanced regional integration and improved regulation of transport 5 2014 PER, Box 2.1, p.21. For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group subsectors, and (vii) stronger governance and management of targeted fisheries and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites. These objectives were supported by fourteen IPF projects, six IDA ASA activities, and several IFC investments and AS. 15. Objective 4: Improved technical and commercial performance of the national power utility. This objective was supported through the FY06 Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement Project, FY14 Power Sector Recovery Project, FY15 OMVG 6 Interconnection Project (FY15), and FY16 First Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Operation. ASA included the FY12 Energy Sector Note. This objective had four indicators: • Increase bill collection rate in Kaloum from 66 percent in 2006 to 95 percent by FY16: Bill collection improved to 81.5 percent. [Partially Achieved]. • Decrease total electricity distribution losses in Kaloum from 26.5 percent in FY12 to 16 percent in FY16: This target was surpassed at 14.7 percent. [Achieved]. • Increase overall bill collection rate nationally from 77 percent in 2014 to 96 percent in 2018: Bill collection rate increased to 81 percent in 2017. [Partially Achieved]. • Reduce overall energy losses from 42 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2018: Overall losses declined to 34 percent in August 2017. [Mostly Achieved]. 16. The ICRR of the FY06 project (closed in 2016) rated both commercial and technical performance as Modest. It noted, in particular, that the commercial performance of the national power utility, EDG, as measured by Cash Recovery Index (CRI) 7 of 0.70, is well below the target of 0.80, the rate normally associated with a well-managed utility. On balance, IEG rates Objective 4 as Partially Achieved. 17. Objective 5: Stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory services. IDA support for agriculture included its FY15 Agriculture Sector Support Project, the FY11 West Africa Agricultural Productivity Project (WAAPP) and its FY17 Additional Financing, the FY13 Second Emergency Agricultural Support Project and the FY16 Third Village Communities Support Project. This objective had four indicators: • Irrigated rice yield increased from 2.5 t/ha in year FY13 to 3.6 t/ha by FY17: The target was achieved at 3.5 t/ha in 2015. [Mostly Achieved]. • Rainfed rice yield increased from 1.0 t/ha in FY13 to 1.6 t/ha by FY17: The target was surpassed at 2.1 t/ha in 2015. [Achieved]. • Budget execution rate increased from 74 percent in FY15 to 85 percent in FY19: The budget execution rate achieved was 65 percent in 2016. [Not Achieved]. • Communes level Annual Investment Plans (AIPSs) increased from 2 in FY15 to 4 by FY17: The CLR reports that 125 communes level plans were financed between FY15 and FY17, but this information could not be validated from the FY16 project data. [Not Verified]. 18. The first two indicators measure productivity and the third indicator is not linked to the objective. The reported increase in financing of Annual Investment Plans could not be verified. On balance, IEG rates Objective 5 as Partially Achieved. 19. Objective 6: Increase the geographical reach of broadband networks and reduce the costs of communications services in West Africa. This objective is supported through the FY11 West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project (WARCIP). Although MIGA did not 6 Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Gambie (Gambia River Basin Development Organization). 7 CRI is an index of commercial performance, a combination of the loss reduction rate with the bill collection rate. For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group underwrite any new political risk guarantees, its guarantee to the telecommunication project remained outstanding during the CPS period with the total gross exposure of US$59.4 million. The CPS used three indicators to measure achievement of this objective: • Retail price of internet services (per Mbit/s per month, in US$) reduced from $1,200 in FY10 to $500 by FY16: The CLR reports that three operators charge between US$115 and US$ 298 per Mbit/s per month. However, this information cannot be verified from project documents. [Not verified]. • International Communications (Internet, Telecom, and Data) bandwidth per person (Kbit/person) increase from 5 in FY10 to 11 by FY16: The CLR estimates the 2016 number at 7.5. Data from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) ranges from 1.73 kb/s per internet user (2013) to 2.37 in 2016 8. The two sources suggest progress, albeit variable. Additional information as measured by international data traffic (bandwidth per person) suggests an increase to 85.75 Kbit (December 2016) from 5.0 Kbit baseline per the latest ISR (November 2017) for the FY11 project [Achieved]. • Access to broadband services (256 kb/s guaranteed) increases from 20 percent to 25 percent of the population in FY16: The CLR reports that access increased to 36 percent, based on data from GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association). However, the ISR for the FY11 project reports that 26.19 percent of the population had access to internet services in 2016. WDI (World Development Indicators) shows that individuals using the internet increased from 1.0 percent in 2010 to 9.8 percent in 2016. Both numbers suggest improved access. [Achieved]. 20. On balance, IEG rates Objective 6 as Mostly Achieved. 21. Objective 7: Improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment climate and improved financial systems. This objective was supported through the FY13 MSME Development project and FY14 Investment Climate Change Dialogue TA, and IFC advisories on the investment climate (FY12) and local supplier development (FY13). This objective had five indicators: • New Leasing Law: A law was approved in 2012, before the CPS period. [Achieved]. • 5,000 entrepreneurs trained in basic business modules by FY17 including 500 women: The ISR for FY13 project reported that only 460 firms (40 percent owned or run by women) had benefited from project support by the end of FY17. Furthermore, the IFC TA & Local Supplier Development Project trained 722 SMEs in the major mining area according to the project completion report. [Partially Achieved]. • Established 3 SME sector focused technical centers: The May 2017 ISR for the MSME project reported that a temporary center was launched in 2017. [Partially Achieved]. • Increase number of reforms adopted through the PPD (Public-Private Dialogue) platform from 0 in FY15 to 4 by FY18: The latest ISR reported that 28 measures proposed by the Public-Private Dialogue process – a WBG-supported platform - were endorsed for implementation as of November 2017. There is, however, no indication of the nature of the recommendations, or of who “adopted” or “endorsed” them. [Achieved]. • Increase the number of businesses registered and included in the Credit Reporting System from 0 in FY15 to 150 by FY18: The latest ISR reported that 180 businesses registered. [Achieved]. 22. Overall, the MSME project files suggest only modest overall progress. IEG rates Objective 7 as Partially Achieved. 8 http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/Internet_bandwidth/#Guinea For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group 23. Objective 8: Improved institutional framework to broaden investment opportunities. IDA supported this objective through its MSME project and the FY16 Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Operation. IFC provided support through its power PPP project. This objective had three indicators: • Implementation decrees of the new Leasing Law are published and disseminated by FY15: The CLR’s report that the GOG signed five bylaws. This information could not be verified. [Not Verified]. • PPP transactions in key sectors: A four-year management services contract was signed in September 2015 between the GOG and the consortium Veolia-Seureca, together with a performance contract between the GOG and Electricité de Guinée (EDG). [Partially Achieved]. • At least 2 PPP transactions are completed in key sectors such as energy, agribusiness and services: Only one transaction (EDG) was completed. [Partially Achieved]. 24. Progress on the institutional framework for investment was limited. On balance, IEG rates Objective 8 as Partially Achieved. 25. Objective 9: Enhanced regional integration and improved regulation of transport subsectors. This objective supported through the regional FY07 West and Central Africa Air Transport Project (covering Guinea, as well as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Cameroon). The CPS used one indicator to measure achievement: • Civil aviation code revised and approved by FY14: Guinea’s civil aviation code was revised and approved in November 2013. [Achieved]. 26. Revision and approval of the civil aviation code improved transport regulation. Moreover, the IDA FY07 project files report that Guinea improved compliance with ICAO safety and security standards. On balance, IEG rates Objective 9 as Achieved. 27. Objective 10: Stronger governance and management of targeted fisheries and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites. This objective was supported through its FY15 West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) and the Regional Partnership for African Fisheries Policy Reform TA (RAFIP). This objective had two indicators: • Share of fisheries management data published regularly and made publicly accessible increase from 0 percent in FY15 to 83 percent by FY21: The latest ISR reports an actual share of 16 percent for December 2016 and 66 percent for December 2017, well below the target. [Partially Achieved]. • Share of fishing vessels inspected by the national fisheries surveillance agency for compliance with national regulations increase from 25 percent in FY15 to 80 percent in FY21: The latest ISR for the WARPF reports an actual share of 31 percent for December 2016 and 72 percent for December 2017. [Mostly Achieved]. 28. The objective has three dimensions, but only two were measured. There is no indicator provided to measure the “improved handling” dimension of the objective. Nonetheless, the latest ISR for the FY15 WARPF reports that there was no growth in the share of marketable volume of fish landed at selected fish landing sites. On balance, IEG rates Objective 10 as Partially Achieved. 29. Given the ratings of objectives 4 to 10 (1 Achieved, 1 Mostly Achieved, and 5 Partially Achieved), IEG rates Focus Area II as Moderately Unsatisfactory. There were improvements in access to broadband services and regulation of air transport. The contributions of the program were modest on the investment climate, the performance of Guinea’s power utility, the institutional framework for investment, governance in the fisheries sector, and in local planning in rural areas. For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group Focus Area III: Supporting Human Development 30. Focus Area III had five objectives: (i) improve the utilization of maternal Child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions, (ii) improved access and learning in basic education for underserved populations in project areas and strengthened capacity in evidence based management for MEPUA, (iii) contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and the availability of selected essential health services, and mitigate the socio-economic impact of EVD, (iv) improved employability and employment outcomes of Guinean youth in targeted skills programs, and (v) established functional social safety net system reaching those below the poverty line. These objectives were supported by eleven IPF projects and six IDA ASA activities. 31. Objective 11: Improve the utilization of maternal/child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions. IDA support on health included the FY05 Health Sector Support Project, the FY15 Primary Health Services Project, the FY16 Post Ebola Support Project and the FY17 Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement Project – REDISSE. This objective had three indicators: • Percentage of deliveries assisted by trained health personnel in targeted areas increased from 24 percent in 2012 to 28 percent by FY17: The CLR reported that assisted deliveries increased to 26 percent. The CLR data could not be verified from project files. The latest WDI data is 2012. [Not Verified]. • Percentage of children (0-11months) fully vaccinated from 16 percent (2012) to 20 percent in FY17: The CLR reported that this percentage increased to 56 percent. The CLR data could not be verified from project files. [Not Verified]. • Number of newly trained community health workers engaged in health promotion and basic service delivery increased from 0 in FY15 to 530 by FY19: The CLR reported that 550 community health workers were engaged. The CLR data could not be verified from project files. [Not Verified]. 32. Other evidence from project files indicates some progress on maternal/child health care. IDA’s FY05 project targeted the 16 poorest prefectures in the country, and helped improve coverage of maternal, child care, and nutrition services, with improvements in the share of assisted institutional deliveries (and vaccination). However, only a few of the project’s results were achieved during the CPS period (only during the first half of FY14). There is no indication of progress on nutrition services. IEG rates Objective 11 as Partially Achieved. 33. Objective 12: Improved access and learning in basic education for underserved populations in project areas and strengthened capacity in evidence based management for MEPUA 9. This objective was supported with the FY02 Education for All – Fast Track Initiative Program and its FY09 Additional Financing, the FY14 Stepping-Up Skills Project, and the FY16 Pooled-Fund for Basic Education. This objective had three indicators: • Percentage of teachers deployed using the “barême de mutation” (mobility scale) approach increased from 92 percent in 2013 to 95 percent in FY17: The CLR reports that this indicator was redefined and no progress has been reported. [Not Achieved]. • Number of teachers participating in the performance based incentive program increased from 1300 in FY15 to 1900 by FY19: The CLR reports that number of participating teachers was at 1,300 (the same as the baseline) [Not Achieved]. 9 Ministry of Pre-University Education and Literacy (Ministère de l’Enseignement Pré-Universitaire et de l’Alphabétisation) For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group • Number of Grade 1 and Grade 2 student passing rates on EGRA 10 (in ER 11 pilots’ schools) increased from 12 percent in FY15 to 22 percent by FY19: The CLR reports that indicator has not been evaluated. [Not Achieved]. 34. IEG rates Objective 12 as Not Achieved. 35. Objective 13: Contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and the availability of selected essential health services, and mitigate the socio-economic impact of EVD. This objected was supported through the FY15 Ebola Emergency Response Project and its FY16 Additional Financing (which also supported the other two Ebola crisis countries, Sierra Leone and Liberia), and the FY15 Emergency Macroeconomic and Fiscal Support Development Policy Operation (DPO). ASA covered an Ebola socio-economic impact study. This objective had two indicators: • Availability of at least two weeks needs of PPEs 12 and other required IPC 13 supplies in the Ebola treatment centers (ETCs) and referral centers increased from 0 percent in 2014 to 80 percent by FY16: This target was surpassed at 100 percent in May 2017. [Achieved]. • Number of New Community Care Units established and fully operational increased from 0 in 2013 to 42 by FY16: A total of 138 Ebola community care centers were established in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and were fully operational as of January 2016. [Achieved]. 36. IEG rates Objective 13 as Achieved. 37. Objective 14: Improved employability and employment outcomes of Guinean youth in targeted skills programs. IDA supported this objective with its FY14 Stepping-Up Skills Project. The CPS used two indicators and targets to measure achievement: • Established relevant training and education programs to train 8,000 youth by FY17: By end- FY17, the training and education programs had not yet been established. [Not Achieved]. • Share of graduation rates/certification at the end of the Bank-supported training programs increased from 0 percent in FY15 to at least 70 percent by FY17: With programs delayed, there were no results on graduation rates/certification. [Not Achieved]. 38. IEG rates Objective 14 as Not Achieved. 39. Objective 15: Established functional social safety net system reaching those below the poverty line. This objective was supported through the FY12 Productive Social Safety Nets Project and its FY16 Additional Financing. An ASA task provided TA support on social protection and safety nets. This objective had two indicators: • 50,000 beneficiaries reached through public works by FY17: By end-FY17, 32,850 people had benefitted from labor-intensive public works (ISR December 2017) 14. [Partially Achieved]. • 12,000 beneficiaries reached through conditional cash transfers (CCT) by FY17. By the end of FY17: 3235 households had benefitted from CCTs (ISR December 2017) 15, or about 19678 people. [Achieved]. 40. IEG rates Objective 15 as Mostly Achieved. 41. Given the ratings of objectives 11 to 15 (1 Achieved, 1 Mostly Achieved, 1 Partially Achieved and 2 Not Achieved), IEG rates Focus Area II as Moderately Unsatisfactory. While the CPS 10 Early Grade Reading Assessment. 11 Early Reading 12 Personal protective equipment. 13 Infection prevention and control 14 The CLR reported 43,700 beneficiaries, which may include the additional beneficiaries through December 2017. 15 The CLR reports 2,000 households. For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group achieved no progress on education and youth employment, and modest progress towards health objective, there were substantial results on social protection and those on Ebola containment were exceptional. Overall Assessment and Rating 42. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Of the 15 objectives, three were Achieved, two were Mostly Achieved, seven were Partially Achieved, two were Not Achieved, and one Not Verified. On Focus Area I, the Program achieved progress on mining sector governance, limited progress on HRM and PFM, and service delivery, and achievement on citizen monitoring of the budget could not be verified. On Focus Area II, the CPS contributed to improvements on access to broadband services and a regional integration and regulation of air transport. However, there was limited progress on the performance of Guinea’s power utility, the investment climate, the institutional framework for investment, fisheries governance, and local planning. On Focus Area III, the CPS achieved its Ebola containment objective and substantial progress in establishing a functional social protection system, but with limited progress on maternal and child health and nutrition, and no progress on education or youth employability. Delays in implementation, weak ownership, or capacity constraints in some areas, and inadequate measurement of outcomes and objectives explain many of the poor results outlined above. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Moderately Focus Area I: Improving Governance. Unsatisfactory Objective 1: Improved capacity and stronger governance systems of Achieved. Achieved key Institutions for managing the mineral sector. Objective 2: Reestablished and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve public financial management and human Partially Achieved Partially Achieved resource management, and service delivery. Objective 3: Budget reform introduced including citizen monitoring. Mostly Achieved Not Verified Moderately Focus Area II: Stimulating growth and economic diversification. Unsatisfactory Objective 4: Improved technical and commercial performance of the Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved national power utility. Objective 5: Stronger local level planning of agricultural investment Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved and advisory Services. Objective 6: Increase the geographical reach of broadband networks Achieved Mostly Achieved and reduce the costs of communications services in West Africa. Objective 7: Improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment Partially Achieved Partially Achieved climate and improved financial systems. Objective 8: Improved institutional framework to broaden investment Not Achieved Partially Achieved opportunities. Objective 9: Enhanced regional integration and improved regulation Achieved Achieved of transport subsectors. Objective 10: Stronger governance and management of targeted Partially Achieved Partially Achieved fisheries and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites. Moderately Focus Area III: Supporting human development. Unsatisfactory Objective 11: Improve the utilization of maternal Child health and Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions. Objective 12: Improved access and learning in basic education for underserved populations in project areas and strengthened capacity Not Verified Not Achieved in evidence based management for MEPUA. Objective 13: Contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Achieved Achieved Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and the availability of selected For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group essential health services, and mitigate the socio-economic impact of EVD. Objective 14: Improved employability and employment outcomes of Not Achieved Not Achieved Guinean youth in targeted skills programs. Objective 15: Established functional social safety net system Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved reaching those below the poverty line. 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 43. At the beginning of the CPS period, outstanding IDA commitments were $184 million consisting of eight IPF operations. For the same period, outstanding trust funds commitments totaled $158 million. Notable was a significant amount allocated for the Education for All-FTI Program of $117.8 million. During the CPS period, IDA approved 16 new operations (10 of the 20 planned and 6 unplanned) amounting to $463 million. New IDA commitment allocations were higher than planned and largely reflected the needs raised by the Ebola epidemic and Guinea’s faltering power services. All but two operations were in the form of IPFs. The other two were the DPOs, linked to the Ebola crisis. Four IPFs were regional projects covering water resources, power, fisheries, and Ebola response. In addition to the new IDA operations, IDA leveraged its financing with new trust fund commitments of $54 million. Most significant was the $38.8 million Pooled Fund for Basic Education Project. 44. Guinea’s active portfolio performance was below AFR and Bank averages. The share of the number of projects at risk averaged 30 percent, above the shares for Africa (22 percent) and the Bank (21 percent). Nevertheless, the share of commitments at risk was lower for Guinea than for Africa overall, albeit higher than the Bank’s average. Average disbursement ratios were higher for Guinea (25 percent) than for Africa (22 percent) or the Bank (21 percent). The CLR suggests that joint Bank-Government portfolio reviews contributed to improve portfolio performance, and portfolio indicators (e.g., commitments at risk), but these actions did not show sustained improvement throughout the period. 45. Guinea’s portfolio at exit had lower ratings than the average for Africa and the Bank. Of nine projects that IEG evaluated, 62.5 percent were rated Moderately Satisfactory or better, below the averages for Africa (70 percent) and the Bank (73 percent). Risk to Development outcome was higher for Guinea (only 1 project received a Moderate rate risk rating), compared to Africa (32 percent) or the Bank (43 percent). 46. During the CPS period, IFC made net commitments of US$190.5 million for seven investment projects. The largest project was IFC’s $130 million net commitment in the mining project during FY17. IFC supported its client banks in Guinea in expanding their trade finance business with IFC’s various trade finance and supply chain solutions. IFC also invested in one hotel project. With the regional Africa Leasing Facility, IFC supported the development of the regulatory framework of the leasing sector in the country. IEG has not validated any Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) of IFC investment project. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 47. IDA completed 20 ASA tasks during the CPS period. Tasks covered the areas where IDA provided project support, with the exception of agriculture, local planning, and water. ASA topics not linked to projects covered trade and security. There were no core diagnostics during the review period. In particular, there is no record of a Bank Poverty Assessment since 1997, although a PRSP was produced in 2013, with a Progress Report in 2016. Of the planned but dropped ASA tasks, an Agricultural Growth and Competitiveness planned task might have provided relevant input into CPS efforts to raise productivity. Task records suggest IDA used ASA products as a basis for country dialogue. Evidence of dissemination is weak, with few reports associated with the ASA tasks readily available to the public in the Bank’s Open Knowledge Repository. For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group 48. During the review period, IFC approved four AS projects amounting to $4.0 million of IFC funds. By utilizing the funding from PPIAF and IFC’s Conflict Affected States in Africa Initiative (CASA), IFC supported the development of an enabling environment for PPPs and strengthening Government’s capacity to identify and implement PPPs. IFC has also been supporting Guinea to improve its investment climate for the mining sector by streamlining licenses and permits requirements related to the mining activities. 49. IEG validated one Project Completion Report (PCR) during the review period and assigned it a “Mostly Unsuccessful” rating to Development Effectiveness. Although IFC contributed to improving business regulations and adopting a new investment code, IEG found that the project was short in meeting its ambitious target of maximizing the benefits of the investments for the Guinea economy and broader population. Results Framework 50. The CPS objectives were aligned with country goals and addressed critical constraints. The results chains broadly reflected the CPS design with links from the country goals and priorities; to CPS objectives, results and WBG interventions. The results framework however, had several shortcomings: (i) there were too many objectives and indicators given the difficult country context and WBG interventions. At the CPS stage, for instance, there were 12 objectives and 26 indicators; (ii) some objectives were multi-dimensional in scope (Objectives 2 and 10) but the indicators were incomplete to measure the achievement of the objectives; (iii) some indicators do not appropriately measure the objectives. A case in point is the local level planning objective, where three of the indicators (on execution rates or yields) were either unclear or too far removed from this objective; (iv) the selected indicators were achieved prior to the CPS period (for example, new leasing law); (v) many indicators could not be verified. At the PLR stage, some objectives were reframed and their number was further increased from 12 to 15 and more indicators were added (from 26 to 43 indicators). While the addition of the short-term response to the Ebola crises was appropriate, the additional indicators did not help improve the quality of the measurement since many of the indicators either could not be verified, or were not measured. Some of the indicators were based on new operations that did not become effective during the CPS implementation and could not deliver the expected results. The CLR did not discuss exogenous factors or unintended effects with a possible bearing on the results achieved. The CLR also lacked a discussion of how some interventions (e.g., on basic education) scaled-up to country level outcomes. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 51. The main development partners contributing substantial financial support to Guinea are the African Development Bank (AfDB), the European Commission (EU), the Islamic Development Bank (IDB), and the Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD). The CPS did not plan on coordination and collaboration with these or other donors in any detail. The PLR referred to a joint AfDB, EU, UN and WBG recovery assessment, conducted in early 2015, that provided inputs to the PLR. The CLR reported that the WBG coordinated support for the restructuring of SOGUPAMI with the IMF but did not provide any other details on how donors coordinated. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 52. Nine operations were closed and validated by IEG during the CPS period. Of the nine closed operations, six (in the education, health, environment and natural resources, social development and the agriculture sectors) triggered environmental and social safeguards. 53. Neither the PLR nor the CLR provided an explicit assessment of social and environmental safeguards performance. Nonetheless, information from the ICRs and the ICRRs report overall satisfactory compliance with the applicable requirements, proper mitigation procedures, capacity building and information disclosure. The only recorded issue was delay in the recruitment of a safeguard specialist in one project in agriculture. 54. The ICRs also noted negligible or no social environmental risks and adverse impacts on the population or the environment. Some projects benefits highlighted in the environmental and natural For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group resources and the education sectors included country-wide application of World Bank’s safeguards in the micro-projects, and stronger local institutions. No inspection panel case was registered during the review period. 55. Six allegations (with no case or investigation) were directed to the following projects: West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project - APL-1B NFA (AP) (P122402); Mineral Governance Support Project NFA (AP) (P122916); West Africa Regional Fisheries Program SOP-C1 - Mauritania & Guinea (P126773); Guinea - Stepping Up Skills Project (P146474); Power Sector Recovery Project (P146696); Ebola Emergency Response Project (P152359). All complaints were related to conflict of interest between the PIUs and their contractors. None were investigated. Ownership and Flexibility 56. Ownership, both at the design stage and implementation stages, was substantial. Congruence with GOG programs and IDA’s consultation with Civil Society, the Private Sector, Donors and Government suggest that the CPS reflected a degree of ownership at the design stage. Nevertheless, targets that were not achieved in some areas (e.g., on budget preparation) suggest that commitment faltered in those areas. On flexibility, the PLR’s adjustments to the CPS in response to the Ebola epidemic provide evidence of appropriate mid-course adjustments. Similarly, changes in projects through Additional Financing arrangements (e.g., on the productive social safety nets project) to target those affected by the Ebola epidemic is another evidence of Bank’s flexibility. WBG Internal Cooperation 57. The CPS and PLR referred to IDA, IFC, and interventions, without any indications of how these institutions would collaborate, despite areas (e.g., objectives 6-8) where there was room for collaboration. The CLR does not indicate any collaboration during CPS implementation. Risk Identification and Mitigation 58. The CPS identified risks stemming from political uncertainty and weak governance, economic management, economic shocks (particularly commodity prices), and available financing. The PLR added risks from the Ebola epidemic and Guinea’s weak institutional capacity. To address these risks, the CPS and PLR planned on a “hands-on” approach to project management and monitoring, governance operations, strengthening and diversifying exports, supporting regional integration, strengthening local project teams and communications (re Ebola), supporting service delivery, and providing budget support (DPOs). Some implementation capacity risks materialized, with mixed results from planned mitigation. On the FY05 Education for All project that closed in FY14, intense supervision efforts did not suffice to neutralize the capacity risks that materialized. A bauxite commodity price risk also materialized with declining aluminum prices during the CPS period, but the intended mitigation measure (export diversification) did not materialize, perhaps as a result of economic impacts from the Ebola crisis. IDA was able to mitigate other impacts of the Ebola epidemic through two budget support operations and a regional operation. Overall Assessment and Rating 59. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The CPS addressed well-identified development challenges and benefited from congruence with GOG programs and consultation with multiple stakeholders. Selected CPS areas were consistent with WBG poverty reduction and shared prosperity objectives (e.g., by focusing on growth and basic services). Given the country context, the program was ambitious in scope and not sufficiently selective with three focus areas, 15 objectives and 43 indicators. Planned operations included interventions (e.g., financing agricultural inputs) that could reasonably be expected to achieve objectives (e.g., improved yields). Use of IDA IPF, DPOs and ASA, as well as IFC investments and MIGA guarantees was appropriate for country conditions and shocks. The knowledge base for the CPS that the WBG developed since its reengagement with the country was appropriate, with ASA addressing some of the areas covered by lending operations. However, it did not include core products (e.g., a CEM and a Poverty Assessment) that may be needed for Guinea’s WBG programs. The CPS and PLR covered risks from political economy developments, external shocks caused by natural disasters, program or project design, For Official Use Only CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group environmental and social developments, capacity constraints (particularly in rural and remote areas), and the fiduciary environment. The CPS and PLR also identified general and specific mitigation measures. DPOs helped mitigate the unexpected risk that materialized with the Ebola epidemic. However, when capacity risks materialized (e.g., on education), mitigation through intense supervision efforts did not suffice to neutralize them. 60. The Ebola shock had adverse impacts on implementation, as it affected project monitoring and ASA, while the authorities’ priorities shifted to addressing the epidemic. Several projects incurred delays even before the Ebola epidemic related to capacity constraints. At the PLR stage, there were significant changes to the results framework, due in part to the Ebola crises. Several objectives were reframed and new objectives were added expanding the number of objectives from 12 to 15. At the same time, new indicators were added, increasing the number from 26 to 43. IFC contributed to a number of objectives, but there was little documented Bank-IFC collaboration, despite several CPS areas that could have benefitted from synergies from such collaboration. The PLR or CLR did not report on safeguard issues. A review of ICRs and ICRRs completed during the CPS period suggests that there were no major issues. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 61. The CLR is concise and clearly written. However, the CLR’s assessment of development outcome is weak while its discussion on WBG performance is limited. For instance, its assessment of objectives in the main text was generally delinked from the results matrix (Table 1), and did not focus on evidence of results but on the approvals of projects (paras. 23 and 25) or implementation delays (para. 26). In addition, its discussion of results could have gone beyond indicators to better assess actual outcomes, or could have added information for objectives with incomplete indicators. In other instances, the reporting was not on the CPS results but on specific project results. In some cases, the evidence on the indicators was outdated compared to the most recent available ISRs and data sources were missing and could not be verified. On WBG performance, the CLR did not discuss internal WBG collaboration, safeguards and fiduciary issues. It also paid inadequate attention to the role ASA may have played, and there was no analysis of portfolio quality. The CLR provided little detail on implementation challenges and IDA responses to those challenges. 8. Findings and Lessons 62. The CLR provides a number of useful lessons. IEG would like to emphasize the following three: (i) maintaining program flexibility is critical in a fragile country context, (ii) good analysis of the country’s context is essential for selecting sensible result indicators and setting adequate targets, and (iii) regular joint Bank-Government portfolio reviews help in improving program implementation. 63. IEG adds one lesson: • When responding to a major external shock such as EVD, it is important for the Bank to reassess the impact of its additional interventions on the overall program portfolio implementation and the resources required to implement the program (both Bank and client), and adjust the program ambition accordingly. In the case of Guinea, adding a new objective to respond to EVD was appropriate, but keeping the rest of the program largely intact and further expanding the number of program objectives and expected results had made the program overly ambitious and reduced the chances of achieving the program’s development outcomes. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Guinea Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives Annex Table 2: Guinea Planned and Actual Lending, FY14-FY17 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Guinea, FY14-FY17 Annex Table 4: Guinea Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY14-17 Annex Table: 5 IEG Project Ratings for Guinea, FY14-17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Guinea and Comparators, FY14-17 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Guinea and Comparators, FY14-17 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Guinea, FY14-17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Guinea, FY14-17 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Guinea Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Guinea, 2014-2017 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Guinea Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Guinea Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Guinea, FY14 - FY17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Guinea, 2014-2017 Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Guinea Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Governance Objective 1: Improved capacity and stronger governance systems of key Institutions for managing the mineral sector Indicator A: A new decree is The Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (Phase 2): Objective 1 was changed signed which aligns Legal Regulatory and Institutional Reforms at PLR from the original SOGUIPAMI’s structure with Technical Assistance (TA) (P153462) objective “Improved international best practice by completed in October 2017 provided support mining governance FY17 to the Government for the analysis of and structure and development of a legal framework for the transparency”. mining sector (see the Grant Reporting and Monitoring Report of January 2018 and the SOGUIPAMI : Société Final Report of a Regulatory and Institutional Guinéenne du Patrimoine Framework for Infrastructure in the Mining Minier Sector in Guinea). The Mineral Governance Support Project OHADA : Organisation (P122916, FY13) also supported the pour l’harmonisation en strengthening of the capacity and Afrique du Droit des governance systems of key institutions Affaires managing the minerals sector. The latest ISR: S (January 2018) reports that SOGUIPAMI governance structure has been established and adopted since February 2017. Major As reported in the CLR, the original Outcome Presidential Decree # D/2011/218 which Measures created SOGUIPAMI has been replaced by Decree # D/2015/016 (February 12, 2015) which created an State-Owned-Enterprise (SOE) aligned with OHADA guidelines (see SOGUIPAM page). Achieved Indicator B: Guinea has The Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (Phase 2): completed its EITI membership Legal Regulatory and Institutional Reforms process by FY16 Technical Assistance (TA) (P153462) completed in October 2017 provided support to the Government to follow EITI requirements. As reported in the CLR, Guinea was accepted as full member and an EITI compliant as of July 2, 2014. Achieved Indicator C: A new decree is The Mineral Governance Support Project This Indicator was added adopted to clarify institutional (P122916, FY13) supported this indicator. during the PLR. relationship, responsibilities The latest ISR: S (January 2018) reports that and mandate of SOGUIPAMI vis this indicator was achieved since February a vis Ministries in charge of 2017. The CLR indicated that this decree is mines, finance and transport Decree D/2015/016 (of February 12, 2015). Achieved Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Governance *Indicator D: The Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (Phase 2): This Indicator was added Annual EITI reports are produced Legal Regulatory and Institutional Reforms during the PLR. Technical Assistance (TA) (P153462) completed in October 2017 provided support to the Government to follow EITI requirements. As reported on EITI website, 2014, 2015 reports and 2016 Annual Progress Report were published. Achieved Objective 2. Reestablished and strengthened basic systems and practices to improve public financial management and human resource management, and service delivery. Indicator A: One single HR The Economic Governance Technical Objective 2 was changed system is established for the Assistance and Capacity Building - EGTACB at PLR from the original Guinean Civil Service by FY17 - Project (P125890, FY12) and additional objective: “Improved financing (P157662, FY17) supported this transparency of the Indicator. The latest ISR: MS (January 2018) public sector including reports no progress on indicators related to HR system the reform of public agents (biometric management.” identification) that are part of the development of a single HR system. Two indicators were As reported in the CLR, a single HR system dropped at PLR Stage: has not yet been established for the Guinean Timeframe for public Civil Service. procurements financed by the national Not Achieved budget is reduced from 65days in 2011 to 10 days by FY17and: Audit of all active SOEs conducted by FY17 Indicator B: Discrepancies The EGTACB Project (P125890, FY12) and Indicator added during between MEPS civil service additional financing (P157662, FY17) PLR stage. database and the payroll reduced. supported this indicator. The latest ISR: MS (January 2018) reported that the actual The actual value of Baseline: 4% in 2014 discrepancy between the MEPS civil service 0.60% was also reported Target: 2% by 2016 database and the payroll was 0.60% as of in the Project Paper of May 2017, exceeding the Target although the the additional financing CLR reports that “no exact figure exists on (P157662 , FY17). the percentage of the discrepancies between MEPS civil service database and the payroll; it is likely to be over two percent”. Achieved Indicator C: Increase public The EGTACB (P125890, FY12) and additional Indicator added during contracts procured through open financing (P157662, FY17) also supported this PLR stage competition indicator. The latest ISR: MS (January 2018) indicates Baseline: from 15% in 2014 that 71% of public contracts were procured Target: 55% by 2016 through open competition, as of May 2017. However, as reported in the CLR, “the public procurement system is generally cumbersome and slow, and many contracts are awarded through single-source Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Improving Governance contracting, which affects the credibility and transparency of the system”. Achieved Objective 3: Budget reform introduced including citizen monitoring Indicator A: A budget law and a As reported in the Project Paper of the public accounts law are adopted additional financing (P157662, FY17) of the by FY16 EGTACB project, an organic law on financial legislation and public accounts was adopted in July 2012 (see publication). However, this achievement occurred before the CPS period. Achieved Indicator B: Budget preparation The EGTACB (P125890, FY12) and occurs following new PFM legal additional financing (P157662, FY17) framework by 2017 supported this indicator. As reported in the May 2017 Project Paper of the additional financing, the target for budget preparation conducted according to the new Public Financial Management (PFM) legal framework was met as of November 2016. However, the related indicator was dropped with the AF for the following reason “Target has been removed because the AF will indirectly contribute to this Indicator”. Not Verified Indicator C: Citizen participation in The EGTACB (P125890, FY12) and Indicator added during budget preparation and additional financing (P157662, FY17) PLR stage. monitoring is institutionalized by supported this indicator. Through the AF, a FY17 new indicator “aggregate citizen report card scores participating sectors – citizen engagement” was added The latest ISR: MS (January 2018) reported that, as of March 2017, this share had increased from 0 to 1% (project target is 3%). However, the AF did not indicate how this percentage was measured or constructed. According to the CLR, citizen participation in budget preparation and monitoring of services delivered are not effective. Not Verified Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area II: Stimulating Growth and Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Diversification Objective 4: Improved technical and commercial performance of the national power utility Indicator A: Increase bill collection The Electricity Sector Efficiency Improvement This objective was rate in Kaloum Project (P077317, FY06) supported this changed at PLR indicator, pursuing the objective to improve from the original Baseline: 66% in 2006 the electricity sector’s commercial and objective: Target: 95% by FY16 operational efficiency. “Increased electricity IEG: MS reports that bill collection rate in generation and Kaloum increased from 70% to 81.5% by 2016. distribution”. Partially Achieved Indicator B: Decrease total The Electricity Sector Efficiency electricity distribution losses in Improvement (P077317, FY06) also Kaloum supported this indicator. Actual achievement reported in IEG: MS was 14.7 total electricity Baseline: 26.5% in FY12 distribution losses in Kaloum exceeding the Target: 16% by FY16 target of 16%. Achieved Indicator C: Increase overall bill The Power Sector Recovery Project Indicator added Major collection rate nationally (P146696, FY14) aims to improve the during PLR stage. Outcome technical and commercial performance of the Measures Baseline: 77% in 2014 national power utility. The latest ISR: MS Target: 96% in 2018 (October 2017) reports a bill collection rate of 81% as of February 2017. Partially Achieved Indicator D: Reduce overall The Power Sector Recovery Project Indicator added energy losses (P146696, FY14) also supported this during PLR stage. indicator. The latest ISR: MS dated October Baseline: 42% in 2014 2017 reported a 34% electricity loss per year Target: 27% in 2018 as of August 2017. Mostly Achieved Objective 5: Stronger local level planning of agricultural investment and advisory services Indicator A: Irrigated rice yield The Second Emergency Agricultural This objective was increased Productivity Support Project (P128309, changed at PLR FY13) supported this indicator with the from the original Baseline: 2.5 t/ha in year FY13 objective to increase smallholder productivity objective: “Improved Target: 3.6 t/ha by FY 17 of targeted commodities in the Intervention agricultural Areas. IEG: S: reports yield of 3.5 ton/ha for productivity”. irrigated rice as of July 2015. Mostly Achieved Indicator B: Rainfed rice yield The Second Emergency Agricultural increased Productivity Support Project (P128309, FY13) also supported this indicator. IEG: S Baseline: 1.0 t/ha in FY 13 reports an actual yield of 2.1 t/ha for rainfed Target: 1.6 t/ha by FY17 rice as of July 2015. Achieved Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area II: Stimulating Growth and Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Diversification Indicator C: Budget execution rate The Agricultural Support Project (P148114, Indicator added increased FY15) supported the strengthening of the during PLR stage. capacity of selected institutions to support Baseline: 74% in FY15 the effective implementation of the Target: 85% in FY19 Recipient's National Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plan. The latest ISR: MU (December 2017) reported a 65% execution rate as of December, 2016. Not Achieved Indicator D: Communes level The Third Village Communities Support Indicator added Annual Investment Plans (AIPSs) Project (P156422, FY16) supported this during PLR stage. increased indicator. The latest ISR: S (January 2018) does not present an indictor related to AIPs. Baseline: 2 in FY15 As reported in the PAD for the project, the Target: 4 by FY17 First and Second phases of the project supported the development of AIP (371 between 2000-2009 for the First Phase and 311 between 2009-2014 for the Second Phase), before the CPS period. The information reported in the CLR (125 communes level AIPs financed between FY15-17) cannot be verified on the basis of the WBG public documents. Not Verified Objective 6: Increase the geographical reach of broadband networks and reduce the costs of communications services in West Africa Indicator A: Retail price of internet The West Africa Regional Communications This objective was services (per Mbit/s per month, in Infrastructure Project (P122402, FY11) changed at PLR US$) reduced supported this indicator, as evidenced by the from the original fact that access to internet services was a objective: “Improved Baseline: $1,200 in FY10 PDO indicator in the PAD. Although “Retail ICT connectivity Target: $500 by FY16 price of internet services (per Mbit/s per and Month, in US$)” was an intermediate result Transformation”. indicator presented in the Emergency Project Paper of May 2011, this indicator is not In addition, the CLR tracked in the recent ISRs, such as in the also reported that latest ISR: S (November 2017). this indicator was not directly According to the CLR, retail price of internet influenced by the services has significantly decreased: for project which unlimited download volume the three focused on operators charge between US$ 115 and US$ wholesale. 298 per Mbps per month. This information cannot be verified on the basis of WBG publicly available documents. Not Verified Indicator B: International The West Africa Regional Communications Target on CPS and Communications (Internet, Infrastructure Project (P122402, FY11) PLR is different Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area II: Stimulating Growth and Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Diversification Telecom, and Data) bandwidth per supported this indicator. The latest ISR: S from the ISR (5.90 person (Kbit/person) increase (November 2017) showed an actual number Gbits/s). of 9.5 Gbit/s as of December 2016 and Baseline: 5 in FY10 reports that the volume of international Target: 11 by FY16 communications bandwidth per person increased from 5 kbit to 85.75 as of December 2016. Achieved Indicator C: Access to broadband The West Africa Regional Communications Indicator added services (256 kb/s guaranteed) Infrastructure Project (P122402, FY11) during PLR stage. increases supported this indicator. The latest ISR: S (November 2017) reports Baseline: 20% that 26.19% of the population had access to Target: 25% of the population in internet services, as of December 2016. FY16 However, the information reported in the CLR (that access to broadband services (fixe + mobile) reached 36% in 2016) is not verified. Achieved Objective 7: Improved selected processes of Guinea’s investment climate and improved financial systems Indicator A: New Leasing Law As reported in the CLR, a new leasing law This objective was was approved in February 2012 ( loi du changed at PLR from crédit-bail N°L/2012/005/CNT of February the original objective: 24th, 2012). However, this indicator was “Enhanced technical achieved before the CPS period. skills to boost” was changed at PLR stage Achieved Indicator added at PLR stage. Indicator B: 5.000 entrepreneurs The IFC TA and Local Supplier Development trained in basic business modules Project (598587, FY13 see presentation by FY17 including 500 women document) and the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) Development Project Baseline: 0 (2013) (P128443, FY13) supported this indicator. Target: 5,000 (2017) The Completion Report of the IFC project reports that the program reached 722 new entities (SMEs) that participated in training activities offered by certified Business Edge trainers, including about 3,740 people. The latest ISR: S (December 2017) for project P128443 does not report information on the number of trained entrepreneurs although it reports that SMEs training have been implemented and that 460 firms have benefited from Support Centers, as of November 2017. Partially Achieved Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area II: Stimulating Growth and Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Diversification Indicator C: Established 3 SME The Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises However, as sector focused technical centers (MSME) Development Project (P128443, reported in the CLR, FY13) supported this indicator (component 1 this indicator has Baseline: 0 of the project). The latest ISR: S (December been delayed: a Target: 3 2017) does not report information for a prerequisite was to related indicator on established SME build technical technical centers. centers but the According to the CLR, one SME technical project is planning a center opened in Conakry. This information restructuring which coincides with the May 2017 ISR: MS of the will recommend project that indicates that a temporary center starting the training was launched in February 2017. before the centers are completed. Partially Achieved Indicator D: Increase in number of The MSME Development Project (P128443, Indicator added reforms adopted through the PPD FY13) supported this indicator. The latest during PLR stage. platform ISR: S (December 2017) reports that 28 measures or recommendations proposed by Baseline: 0 in FY15 the Public-Private Dialogue (PPD) process Target: 4 by FY18 were endorsed for implementation as of November 2017. Achieved Indicator E: Increase the number The MSME Development Project (P128443, Indicator added of businesses registered and FY13) supported this indicator. The latest during PLR stage. included in the Credit Reporting ISR:S (December 2017) reported 180 System business registered and included in the Credit Reporting System as of November Baseline: 0 in FY15 2017. Target: 150 by FY18 Achieved Objective 8: Improved institutional framework to broaden investment opportunities Indicator A: Implementation As a new leasing law was approved in The reported decrees of the new Leasing Law February 2012 (loi du crédit-bail decrees or bylaws are published and disseminated N°L/2012/005/CNT of February 24th, 2012), could not be by FY15 before the CPS period. The CLR reports that found/verified. five leasing bails laws were signed in June 2015. As reported in an IFC press release, IFC had signed a cooperation agreement (advisory service) as part of the Africa Leasing Facility Program, with the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea to lay the foundation for leasing facilities to help small- scale entrepreneurs strengthen and expand their businesses. The June 2014 press release reports on the fact that the Central Bank had drafted and enacted a leasing law but no other document Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area II: Stimulating Growth and Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Diversification provided information on the implementation of leasing legislation. Not Verified Indicator B: PPP transactions in The IFC Guinea PPP Project, FY13 (see IFC Indicator added key sectors information), the Guinea Power PPP, the during PLR stage. Guinea Water PPP and PPIAF advised the government of Guinea on implementing a decree and the creation of the PPP unit. The first PPP law in Guinea was adopted by the Parliament June 2017 (see Law 2017-32 of July 2017). IFC information reports that a preferred bidder was selected in November 2014 and awarded with management contract for power distribution. The operation was finalized in September 2015. The Completion Report of the Guinea Power PPP rated the project as Highly Successful. Partially Achieved Indicator C: At least 2 PPP The IFC Guinea PPP Project, FY13 (see IFC transactions are completed in key information), the Guinea Power PPP, the sectors such as energy, Guinea Water PPP and PPIAF supported the agribusiness and services government to structure PPP for power distribution. The operation was finalized in September 2015 – the Completion Report of the Guinea Power PPP rated the project as Highly Successful. Partially Achieved Objective 9: Enhanced regional integration and improved regulation of transport subsectors Indicator A: Civil aviation code The West and Central Africa Air Transport revised and approved by FY14 Safety & Security Project (P083751, FY06) supported this outcome. As reported in the CLR, the Civil aviation code was revised and approved in November, 2013 (Law L/2013/063/CNT dated November 5, 2013). However, IEG: MS reports that although the law for setting up the civil aviation code (CAA) had been ratified, the legal decrees had not been passed at the time to make the CAA functional at the project closure stage. Achieved Objective 10: Stronger governance and management of targeted fisheries and improved handling of landed fish at selected sites Indicator A; Share of fisheries The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program This objective was management data published Mauritania & Guinea Project (P126773, added during the FY15) supported this indicator. The latest PLR. Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area II: Stimulating Growth and Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Diversification regularly and made publicly ISR: MS (December 2017) recorded an accessible increase actual share of 66% of fisheries management data published regularly and made publicly Baseline: 0% in FY15 accessible, as of December 2017. Target: 83% by FY21 Partially Achieved Indicator B: Share of fishing The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program vessels inspected by the national Mauritania & Guinea Project (P126773, fisheries surveillance agency for FY15) also supported this indicator. The compliance with national latest ISR: MS (December 2017) reports a regulations increase 72% share of fishing vessels inspected as of December 2017. Baseline: 25% in FY15 Target: 80% in FY21 Mostly Achieved CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area III: Supporting Human Actual Results IEG Comments Development Objective 11: Improve the utilization of maternal. Child health and nutrition services at the primary level of care in target regions Indicator A: % of deliveries The Health Sector Support Project This objective has assisted by trained health (P065126, FY05) supported improvement in been split to personnel in targeted areas the coverage and quality of maternal and separate health, increased child health services in targeted districts and education and skills targeted health centers in the peri-urban. Indicators during the Baseline: 24% in 2012 IEG: MS reports that deliveries assisted by PLR stage. Original Target: 28% by FY17 trained health personal increased from 14% objective was: to 38%, as of December 2013. “Improved access to The Primary Health Services Improvement basic service Project (P147758, FY15) also supports this Delivery”. indicator. The latest ISR: MS (October 2017) The following reports that 14,666 additional births were indicator has been attended by skilled health personnel as of removed during Major June 2017. PLR: Outcome Health centers Measures Not Verified applying RBF increases from 0 in 2013 to 10% by FY17. World Development Indicators are not available after 2012 (45.3%) for Guinea. Indicator B: Percentage of The Health Sector Support Project Indicator added children (0-11months) fully (P065126, FY05) supported this indicator. during PLR stage vaccinated from 16% to 20% in IEG: MS reports that the share of children 0- FY17 11 months increased from 50.3% to 86%, as No World of December 2013. Development Baseline: 16% (2012) Indicator reports Target: 20% (2017) The Primary Health Services Improvement data on project (P147758, FY15) also supported this Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area III: Supporting Human Actual Results IEG Comments Development indicator. As per the latest ISR: MS (October immunization for the 2017) baseline for this indicator changed 0-11 months. from 16% to 57% (and target to 65% by September 2020). There is no actual achievement reported on this indicator that will be recorded in the following ISR. Not Verified Indicator C: Number of newly The Primary Health Services Improvement Indicator added trained community health workers project (P147758, FY15) supported this during PLR stage. engaged in health promotion and indicator. The latest ISR: MS (October 2017) basic service delivery increased reports that there is no actual data or As reported in the achievement from the ISR as of June 2017. latest ISR: S Baseline: 0 in FY15 The Post Ebola Support Project (P158579, (February 2017) of Target: 530 by FY19 project P158579, at FY17) also supported this indicator although the latest ISR: S (February 2017) does not the time of the report progress on the number of newly preparation of the trained community health workers engaged ISR the project was in health promotion and basic service very close to delivery as of January 2017 (see IEG effectiveness. comment). Consequently, no progress was yet Not Verified reported. Objective 12: Improved access and learning in basic education for underserved populations in project areas and strengthened capacity in evidence based management for MEPUA Indicator A: Percentage of The CLR reports that various projects have This outcome has teachers deployed using the contributed to the Education sector during been removed “barême de mutation” approach the CPS. Only the evaluation report of the during PLR stage: increased Pooled-Fund for Basic Education, part of the Transition rate from Global Partnership for Education (project primary to lower Baseline: 92% in 2013 P148127, FY16) reports this indicator in the secondary school Target: 95% in FY17 results matrix of the project (baseline: 95% increase in targeted and target: 98%) but does not report on areas from 28% in actual value. The latest ISR: MS (December 2012 to 36% by 2017) does not report information for this FY17 indicator. According to the CLR, this indicator has not been evaluated. Not Achieved Indicator B: Number of teachers The Pooled-Fund for Basic Education Indicator added participating in the performance (project P148127, FY16) supports this during PLR stage. based incentive program indicator. The latest ISR: MS (December increased 2017) does not report progress for this indicator as of November 2017 and indicates Baseline: 1300 in FY15 that the indicator will be reformulated in the Target: 1900 by FY19 upcoming restructuring of the project. According to the CLR, this indicator has not evaluated/revised although the performance- based teacher incentive pilot program was Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area III: Supporting Human Actual Results IEG Comments Development completed, involving around 1,300 teachers in 420 schools participated. The CLR adds that the final report of the related impact evaluation will be completed in FY18 and that the intervention has been replaced by a performance-based school grants pilot program (on-going). Not Achieved Indicator C: Number of Grade 1 The Pooled-Fund for Basic Education (project Indicator added and Grade 2 student passing rates P148127, FY16) supports this indicator. The during PLR stage. on EGRA (in ER pilots’ schools) latest ISR: MS (December 2017) does not increased report progress for this indicator as of According to the November 2016. The ISR indicates that this CLR this indicator Baseline: 12% in FY15 indicator will be reformulated in the upcoming was also not Target: 22% by FY19 restructuring of project. evaluated and the reading fluency in Not Achieved grade 2 EGRA pilot schools has improved from 7 words per minute in 2014 to 25 words per minute in 2016. Objective 13: Contribute in the short term to the control of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and the availability of selected essential health services, and mitigate the socio-economic impact of EVD Indicator A: Availability of at least The Ebola Emergency Response Project The Objective was two weeks needs of PPEs and (P152359, FY15) supported this indicator. added during the other required IPC supplies in the The latest ISR: S (December 2017) PLR. Ebola treatment centers (ETCs) indicates a 100% achievement as of May and referral centers increased 2017. Baseline: 0% in 2014 Achieved Target: 80% by FY16 Indicator B: Number of New The Ebola Emergency Response Project The ISR also Community Care Units established (P152359, FY15) supported this indicator. indicates that, and fully operational increased The November 2016 ISR: S reports that 138 among other PDO Ebola community care centers were indicators, this Baseline: 0 in 2013 established in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra indicator is no longer Target: 42 by FY16 Leone and were fully operational as of relevant given that January 2016. the intensive response period of Achieved Ebola is over. The CLR indicates that this indicator has been dropped and, with the end of Ebola, the Government opened 39 treatment centers. Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY14-FY17: Focus Area III: Supporting Human Actual Results IEG Comments Development Objective 14: Improved employability and employment outcomes of Guinean youth in targeted skills program Indicator A); Established relevant The Stepping Up Skills Project (P146474, This Objective was training and education programs FY15) supported this indicator. The latest changed at PLR to train 8,000 youth by FY17 ISR: MU (December 2017) reports no stage from the progress in relation to the indicator related to original objective an increase in the number of trained youth from “Improved employed. The ISR indicates that 14 sub- skills for job projects have been shortlisted. The CLR creation”. reports that the first cohorts are expected to be enrolled on scholar year 2017-2018. The CLR indicates that results on Not Achieved graduation rates/ Indicator B): The Stepping Up Skills Project (P146474, certification are Share of graduation FY15) supported this indicator. The latest delayed due to late rates/certification at ISR: MU (December 2017) reports no start in the end of the Bank-supported progress in relation to the indicator on youth implementation. training programs increased who are certified. Baseline: 0% in FY15 Target: 70% by FY17 Not Achieved Objective 15: Established functional social safety net system reaching those below the poverty line Indicator A: 50,000 beneficiaries The Productive Social Safety Net Project At the PLR Stage reached through public works by (P123900, FY12) and additional financing the target has been FY17 supported this indicator. The latest ISR: S revised from 24,000 (December 2017) reports that 32,850 people to 50,000. were direct beneficiaries of labor intensive public works activities as of July 2017, The CLR also including 19,741 women. reported support from the Peace The CLR reported information - by FY17 Building Trust Fund through Bank supported projects 43,700 (FY15) and from the beneficiaries participated in public works Ebola Recovery and programs in urban and rural areas – cannot Reconstruction be verified on the basis of the available Trust Fund (FY16) information (see IEG comment). to this indicator but no project document Partially Achieved was available to verify their contribution to this indicator. Indicator B: 12,000 beneficiaries The Productive Social Safety Net Project At the PLR stage reached through conditional cash (P123900, FY12) and additional financing the target has been transfers by FY17 supported this indicator. revised from 10,000 The latest ISR: S (December 2017) reports to 12,000. that five out of eight conditional cash transfers have been completed to an The CLR reports estimated 3235 households. that 12,566 (2,000 households) were Achieved reached. Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Guinea Planned and Actual Lending, FY14-FY17 Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Outcome Project ID Project name IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Rating Amount Project Planned Under CPS/PLR FY14-17 CPS PLR Skills for Growth and P146474 Employability (Stepping 2014 2015 2021 16.6 20 20 LIR: MS Up Skills Project) Agricultural Productivity P148114 (Guinea National 2014 2015 2019 10 15 15 LIR: MU Agricultural) Sustainable Energy for All 2014 GPE 2014 Results Based TA Reform P156629 (GN - Macroeconomic & 2015 2016 2017 22 40 40 LIR: MS Fiscal Mgmt Operat) Electricity support (GN P146696 Power Sector Recovery 2015 2014 2020 30 50 50 LIR: MS Project) Health - Guinea Community Health Services Improvement P147758 2016 2015 2021 10 15 15.1 LIR: MS Project ('GN_PRIMARY HEALTH SERVICES IMPROVEMENT) Agriculture sector support 2016 30 20 Regional Trade and 2016 13 Growth Corridor Water and Sanitation 2016 Services Third Village communities P156422 2016 2016 2021 15 15 LIR: S Support Program Project Development Policy TBC 40 Operations Additional Financing for TBC Social Safety Nets Power Sector TBC Strengthening PFM/Governance 2017 15 Higher Education 2017 12 Regional Projects Senegal River Basin Multi- P131323** Purpose Water Resources 2014 15.5 28.5 28.5 Development Project 2 OMVG Interconnection P146830** 2015 10 30 Project P126773** WARF 2015 3 5 10 Ebola Emergency P152359** Response Project and 2015 97 72 Additional Financing Total Planned 177.1 315.5 295.6 Unplanned Projects during the CPS Period Emergency P151794 Macroeconomic and Fiscal 2015 2015 50 IEG: MS Suppt AF-Productive Social P156484 2016 12 Safety Nets Project Economic Gov TA & P157662 2017 22 Capacity Building - AF Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Guinea Urban Water P157782 2017 2022 30 Project P154807** Regional Disease Surveillance Systems 2016 2023 30 Enhancement (REDISSE) P122065** West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program APL 2017 2020 23 (WAAPP-1C) Total Unplanned 0 167 Approved Approval Closing On-going Projects during the CPS/PLR Period IDA FY FY Amount GN-Education for All APL P050046 2002 2014 70 IEG: MU (FY02) GN-Health Sec Supt SIL P065126 2005 2014 25 IEG: MS (FY05) GN-Elec. Sec. Eff. Impr. P077317 2006 2016 7 IEG: MS SIL (FY06) GN-APL2 Village Comm P065129 2008 2015 17 IEG: MS Supp Program GN Productive Social P123900 2012 2020 25 LIR: MS Safety Net Project GN: Economic P125890 Governance Technical 2012 2021 10 LIR: MS Assist GN:Mineral Governance P122916 2013 2019 20 LIR: S Support Project GN-MSME Development P128443 2013 2018 10 LIR: MS Project Total On-going 184 Source: Guinea CPS and PLR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 2/14/18 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. ** Regional Projects Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Guinea, FY14-FY17 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P114748 DeMPA Assessment – Guinea FY10 Economic Updates and Modeling P131105 ROSC A&A GUINEA FY13 Accounting and Auditing Assessment (ROSC) P133417 Towards a tertiary education strategy FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P144401 Guinea Public Expenditure Review FY15 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P155946 HD PER -- Policy Notes 2 FY15 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P146532 Socioeconomic Impact of Ebola using Mobi FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P151471 Boosting Budget Execution fr dev. impact FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P133267 Assessment of Mining FY17 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P143176 DTIS Update Guinea FY17 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P151678 GN-Public Expenditure Review FY17 Public Expenditure Review (PER) Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P108841 GN-ESMAP SMEs in Rural Electr. (FY10) FY10 Technical Assistance P117807 GN-RE-ENGAGEMENT TA FY11 Technical Assistance P124914 Guinea Energy Sector Note FY12 Technical Assistance P130920 GN - PPP Seminar in Guinea FY13 Technical Assistance P128085 GN Investment Climate Change Dialogue TA FY14 Technical Assistance P130604 GN-Public reform in Security Sector FY14 Technical Assistance P148875 Youth Employment FY14 Technical Assistance P126757 GN- Social Protection Strategy FY15 Technical Assistance P132822 GN Policy Dialogue and Collaboration fo FY15 Technical Assistance P127264 Guinea: Mineral Advsry Facility (EI-TAF) FY16 Technical Assistance P130405 Mining Ancillary Infrastructure FY16 Technical Assistance P148016 Tourism Sector Note FY16 Technical Assistance P157073 GN- Portfolio Extended GAC Review FY16 Technical Assistance P153462 Mining Ancillary Infrastructure (2) FY17 Technical Assistance P153708 Support to Social Protection Strategy FY17 Technical Assistance P157706 GN- Support to Post-Ebola Recovery Pg FY17 Technical Assistance P145846 SE4ALL TA for Guinea FY18 Technical Assistance P157049 Guinea#C015 Strengthening MF FY18 Technical Assistance P158652 GN - Post Ebola HRH Strengthening FY18 Technical Assistance Source: WB Business Intelligence 8/23/17 Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Guinea Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY14-17 Project Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Rating GN-Rural Roads Emergency P156557 TF A2432 2016 2018 2,850,000 Improvement Project GUINEA - Pooled-Fund for Basic P148127 TF A0171 2016 2016 1,000,000 Education GUINEA - Pooled-Fund for Basic P148127 TF 19337 2016 2019 37,800,000 Education P123900 Productive Social Safety Net Project TF A2454 2016 2018 4,350,000 GN- Post Ebola Support Project, P158579 TF A1483 2015 2021 4,350,000 Mamou P123900 Productive Social Safety Net Project TF 18255 2015 2016 1,865,000 Guinea-SPF-Public Sector Governance P149067 TF 14085 2014 2017 2,045,000 and Accountability Project Second Emergency Agricultural P128309 TF 12755 2013 2016 20,000,000 IEG: S Productivity Support Project Economic Governance Technical P125890 TF 12640 2012 2015 647,004 Assistance and Capacity Building Development of Inclusive Education in P129210 TF 11065 2012 2016 2,857,000 Guinea Guinea- GEF- Electricity Sector P098742 TF 93404 2012 2016 4,500,000 Efficiency Improvement Project Education For All-Fast Track Initiative P111470 TF 92364 2009 2015 117,800,000 IEG: MS Program Community-Based Land Management P081297 TF 56982 2007 2015 7,000,000 IEG: MU Project Coastal Marine and Biodiversity P070878 TF 56981 2007 2014 5,000,000 IEG U Management Total 212,064,004 Source: Client Connection as of 2/13/18 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table: 5 IEG Project Ratings for Guinea, FY14-17 Total Exit Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY ($M) * MODERATELY 2014 P050046 GN-Education for All APL (FY02) 92.2 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2014 P065126 GN-Health Sec Supt SIL (FY05) 23.4 HIGH SATISFACTORY GN-GEF Coastal Marine & Biodiversity 2014 P070878* 4.91 UNSATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT Mg GN-APL2 Village Comm Supp MODERATELY 2015 P065129 17.6 SIGNIFICANT Program SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2015 P081297* GN-GEF CB Land Mgmt SIL (FY06) 7.0 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY GN-Education For All FTI Program MODERATELY 2015 P111470* 40.0 MODERATE (FY09) SATISFACTORY Emergency Macroeconomic and Fiscal MODERATELY 2015 P151794 49.2 SIGNIFICANT Suppt SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P077317 GN-Elec. Sec. Eff. Impr. SIL (FY06) 23.7 HIGH SATISFACTORY GN:2nd Emerg. Agric. Prod. Support 2016 P128309* 18.8 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT Proj. Total 206.1 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 2/13/18 *Trust Fund Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Guinea and Comparators, FY14-17 Total Total RDO % RDO % Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated1 Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Guinea 206.2 9 55.3 66.7 0.0 11.1 12,375.4 209 77.8 70.8 34.1 32.5 AFR 73,421.5 805 85.3 74.2 52.6 43.3 World Source: WB AO as of 2/13/18 1The total evaluated amount is understated because it does not include the net commitments of trust funded projects evaluated by IEG. * Refer to Annex Table 5 for IEG project ratings Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Guinea and Comparators, FY14-17 Fiscal year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ave FY14-17 Guinea # Proj 13 12 14 15 14 # Proj At Risk 5 5 3 3 4 % Proj At Risk 38.5 41.7 21.4 20.0 29.6 Net Comm Amt 234.6 200.7 276.5 291.6 251 Comm At Risk 51.9 55.4 85.0 63.8 64 % Commit at Risk 22.1 27.6 30.7 21.9 25.5 AFR # Proj 620 643 659 711 658 # Proj At Risk 138 136 144 173 148 % Proj At Risk 22.3 21.2 21.9 24.3 22.4 Net Comm Amt 49,142.6 54,586.3 59,033.9 63,922.0 56,671 Comm At Risk 16,548.2 16,000.3 18,949.8 20,995.4 18,123 % Commit at Risk 33.7 29.3 32.1 32.8 32.0 World # Proj 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,071 2,029 # Proj At Risk 412 444 422 449 432 % Proj At Risk 20.1 22.0 21.4 21.7 21.3 Net Comm Amt 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 224,441.4 209,607 Comm At Risk 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 52,549.1 45,929 % Commit at Risk 21.3 22.9 20.1 23.4 21.9 Source: WB BI as of 3/1/18 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Guinea, FY14-17 Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 Overall Result Guinea Disbursement Ratio 27.9 24.4 24.8 24.2 25.2 Inv Disb in FY 32.5 26.7 33.0 39.2 131.4 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 116.5 109.6 133.1 162.2 521.5 AFR Disbursement Ratio 23.1 24.5 19.6 21.2 22.1 Inv Disb in FY 6,143.9 6,473.2 5,572.5 6,222.9 24,412.5 Inv Tot Undisb 26,540.4 26,463.6 28,377.1 29,309.5 110,690.6 Begin FY World Disbursement Ratio 20.8 21.8 19.5 20.5 20.6 Inv Disb in FY 20,757.7 21,853.7 21,152.9 22,126.4 85,890.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 99,854.3 100,344.9 108,600.3 108,147.9 416,947.3 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Source: AO disbursement ratio table as of 3/1/18 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Guinea, FY14-17 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY14 25,504,065.2 2,365,949.7 23,138,115.6 - 1,107,514.3 22,030,601.3 FY15 147,558,084.9 2,991,168.7 144,566,916.2 - 1,328,086.3 143,238,829.9 FY16 38,534,827.2 3,194,223.5 35,340,603.7 - 1,460,703.4 33,879,900.3 FY17 85,289,924.7 3,142,721.8 82,147,202.9 - 1,552,924.2 80,594,278.7 Report Total 296,886,902.0 11,694,063.6 285,192,838.4 - 5,449,228.2 279,743,610.2 World Bank Client Connection 3/1/18 Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Guinea Development Partners 2014 2015 2016 All Donors, Total 563.18 538.45 .. DAC Countries, Total 186.56 175.32 .. Australia 0.07 0.06 .. Austria 0.03 0.04 .. Belgium 3.54 6.84 .. Canada 12.45 15.5 .. Czech Republic 0.29 .. .. Finland 0.04 0.03 .. France 77.21 30.18 .. Germany 11.8 12.76 .. Greece 0.01 .. .. Ireland 0.48 0.38 .. Italy 2.2 0.12 .. Japan 22.99 26.25 .. Korea 0.31 0.09 .. Luxembourg 0.71 0.72 .. Norway 0.66 0.14 .. Poland .. 0 .. Portugal 0.04 0.05 .. Spain 4.26 1.22 .. Sweden 2.17 1.01 .. Switzerland 5.35 2.72 .. United Kingdom 0.46 0.48 .. United States 41.5 76.72 .. Multilaterals, Total 356.58 352.13 .. EU Institutions 53.47 87.01 .. International Monetary Fund, Total 96.5 63.15 .. IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) 96.5 63.15 .. Regional Development Banks, Total 42.68 42.85 .. African Development Bank, Total 43.31 33.06 .. African Development Bank [AfDB] .. .. .. African Development Fund [AfDF] 43.31 33.06 .. Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] -0.63 9.79 .. United Nations, Total 32.05 42.49 2.27 IFAD 2.46 0.16 .. International Labour Organisation [ILO] .. 0.02 .. UNAIDS 0.49 0.6 0.39 UNDP 6.48 5.95 .. UNFPA 2.96 2.6 .. UNHCR .. 2.38 .. Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2014 2015 2016 UNICEF 8.34 16.4 .. UN Peacebuilding Fund [UNPBF] 8.19 9.87 .. WFP 1.44 2.54 0.29 World Health Organisation [WHO] 1.68 1.96 1.59 World Bank Group, Total 99.77 73.34 .. World Bank, Total 99.77 73.34 .. IBRD .. .. .. IDA 99.77 73.34 .. IFC .. .. .. Other Multilateral, Total 32.12 43.3 .. Adaptation Fund .. .. .. Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] 6.29 3.9 .. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 5.39 11.02 .. Global Environment Facility [GEF] 1.67 1.51 .. Global Fund 19.38 24.21 .. OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] -0.6 2.65 .. Non-DAC Countries, Total 20.05 11 .. Estonia 0.01 .. .. Kuwait (KFAED) -0.77 4.12 .. Romania 0 0.01 .. Russia 16.79 6.25 .. Thailand 0.01 0.03 .. Turkey 0.9 0.54 .. United Arab Emirates 3.11 0.04 .. Source: OECD Stat. DAC2a as of 8/30/17 * Data only available up to FY16 Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Guinea, 2014-2016* Guinea AFR World Series Name 2014 2015 2016 Average 2014-2016 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 3.7 3.5 6.6 4.6 3.0 2.7 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 1.3 1.1 4.0 2.1 0.2 1.5 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 1,730 1,770 1,840 1,780 3,573 15,697 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 680 690 670 680 1,638 10,611 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 9.7 8.2 8.1 8.7 4.7 1.9 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 19.3 20.8 20.2 20.1 17.4 4.1 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 32.9 28.9 31.2 31.0 25.1 28.3 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 47.8 50.3 48.6 48.9 57.4 67.7 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. 21.0 23.4 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. 17.2 24.8 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. 27.0 29.4 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) .. .. .. .. 31.1 28.7 Current account balance (% of GDP) -11.2 -11.6 -33.5 -18.8 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 23.1 22.3 23.8 23.1 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.0 2.1 .. Total reserves in months of imports 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.1 5.2 13.3 Fiscal Accounts /** General government revenue (% of GDP) 17.0 14.9 16.2 16.0 18.3 .. General government total expenditure (% of 20.2 21.8 16.4 19.4 22.6 .. GDP) General government net lending/borrowing -3.2 -6.9 -0.2 -3.4 -4.3 .. (% of GDP) General government gross debt (% of GDP) 35.1 42.1 42.9 40.0 38.4 .. Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 58.8 59.4 60.0 59.4 59.9 71.9 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12- 51.0 54.0 57.0 54.0 73.7 85.4 23 months) People using at least basic sanitation 21.1 22.0 .. 21.5 28.1 67.7 services (% of pop) People using at least basic drinking water 66.5 67.4 .. 66.9 57.1 88.3 services (% of pop) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 61.8 60.0 58.3 60.0 54.9 31.4 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) .. .. .. .. 32.1 48.4 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 93.9 .. .. 93.9 97.4 103.4 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 40.3 .. .. 40.3 42.4 76.3 Population Population, total (Millions) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.1 1,006.0 7,357.5 Population growth (annual %) 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 36.7 37.2 37.7 37.2 37.8 53.8 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 .. .. .. .. .. .. PPP) (% of pop.) Source: World Development Indicators Database as of 05/12/18 * Data only available up to FY16 ** International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Guinea Investments Committed in FY14-FY17 Project Cmt Project Primary Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Sector Name Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm Oil, Gas and 34203 2017 Active E 203,300 135,000 - 135,000 - - 135,000 - 135,000 Mining Finance & 36111 2015 Closed E 15,000 15,000 - 15,000 - - 15,000 - 15,000 Insurance Finance & 36351 2015 Active E 4,000 2,000 - 2,000 - - 2,000 - 2,000 Insurance Finance & 36624 2015 Active E 5,000 5,000 - 5,000 2,500 - 2,500 - 2,500 Insurance Accommodati 32408 2014 Active on & Tourism G 15,000 15,000 - 15,000 - - 15,000 - 15,000 Services Finance & 33502 2014 Active G 2,489 2,489 - 2,489 - - 2,489 - 2,489 Insurance Finance & 34434 2014 Active E 5,000 18,516 - 18,516 - - 18,516 - 18,516 Insurance Sub-Total 5,000 18,516 - 18,516 - - 18,516 - 18,516 Investments Committed pre-FY14 but active during FY14-17 Project CMT Project Primary Greenfiel Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID FY Status Sector Name d Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity Comm Finance & 30986 2011 Active E 5,500 79,369 - 79,369 - - 79,369 - 79,369 Insurance Sub-Total 5,500 79,369 - 79,369 - - 79,369 - 79,369 TOTAL 10,500 97,885 - 97,885 - - 97,885 - 97,885 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 6/30/17 Annexes CLR Review 42 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Guinea Advisory Services Approved in FY14-17 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line Guinea PPP Diagnostic and Capacity- 599737 2017 2018 ACTIVE CAS 810,597 Building Guinea Investment Climate Phase 2 601367 2016 2020 ACTIVE TAC 2,173,001 Mining Linkages 600130 Guinea Power PPP 2014 2016 ACTIVE CAS 1,062,625 Sub-Total 4,046,223 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY14 but active during FY14-17 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Funds, Project Name Start End Business ID Status US$ FY FY Line Guinea Conakry Investment 586007 2013 2015 ACTIVE TAC 3,818,000 Climate Reform Program Investment Climate Reform in 594887 Guinea Investment Policy and 2013 2016 ACTIVE TAC 1,276,352 Taxation Rio Tinto - TA & Local Supplier 598587 2013 2017 ACTIVE INR 3,969,857 Development Project OHADA implementation 593307 2012 2016 DROPPED IC 650,000 component of Guinea IC Program 593707 Guinea Business Regulation 2012 2016 CLOSED TAC 1,832,646 Sub-Total 11,546,855 TOTAL 15,593,078 Source: IFC AS Data as of 6-30-17 Annexes CLR Review 43 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Guinea, FY14 - FY17 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Financial Markets 2,489,331 22,000,000 (2,500,000) - 21,989,331 Trade Finance (TF) 13,054,024 31,468,959 20,654,732 15,730,106 80,907,820 Tourism, Retail, Construction & Real Tourism 15,000,000 - - - 15,000,000 Estates (TRP) Oil, Gas & Mining Mining - - - 133,512,826 133,512,826 Total 30,543,355 53,468,959 18,154,732 149,242,932 251,409,978 Source: IFC MIS as of 9/13/17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Guinea, 2014-2017 Project Max Gross ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Status Issuance 6147 Orange Guinée S.A. 2007 Active Telecommunications Senegal 59.4 Total 59.4 Source: MIGA 8-30-17