Report No. 15344-NIR Niger Poverty Assessment A Resilient People in a Harsh Environment June 28, 1996 Population and HUman ResoLrces I)iviion West Central Africa Department Africa Region ou Document of the World Bank Government Fiscal Year July 1 - June 30 Currency Equivalents Currency Unit: CFA Franc (CFAF) US$ 1.00 = CFAF 499.1 (Average 1995) Acronyms and Abbreviations AIDS Acquired immune deficiency syndrome Syndrome immunodéficitaire acquis APP Practical and Productive Activities Activités pratiques et productives CERDI International Development Research Center Centre d'études et de recherches sur le développement international CPI Consumer price index Indice des prix DAAP Directorate of Administration and Personnel Direction de l'administration et des affaires du personnel DEPD Directorate of Primary Education Direction de l'enseignement du premier degré DHS Demographic and Health Surveys Enquêtes démographique et de santé DSCN National Statistical Office of Niger Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilité nationale au Niger EBFAN African Family Budget Survey of Niamey Enquête sur les budgets familiaux africains à Niamey EU European Union Union européenne ENBC National Household Budget and Consumption Survey Enquête nationale sur le budget et la consommation des ménages FAC French Fund for Cooperation Fonds d'aide et de coopération FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Organisation mondiale pour l'agriculture et l'alimentation FEWS Early Warning and Disaster Assistance Système d'alerte précoce FP Family planning Planning familial GAP Group of Private Aid Groupement des aides privées HDI Human Development Index Indice du développement humain HIV Human immunodeficiency virus Virus immiunodéficitaire acquis IDA International Development Association Association internationale pour le développement IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development Fonds international pour le développement agricole ILO International Labor Organization Bureau international du travail IMF International Monetary Fund Fonds monétaire international MENESR Ministry of National Education Ministère de l'éducation nationale, de l'enseignement supérieur e de la recherche MCH/FP Maternal and child health care/family planning Soin de santé maternelle et infantile/planning familial MOPH Ministry of Public Health Ministère de la santé publique NIGETIP Public Works and Employment Project Agence nigérienne de travaux d'intérêt public pour l'emploi NGO Nongovernmental organization Organisation non gouvernementale ONPPC Niger Pharmaceutical Board Office nigérien des produits pharmaceutiques OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole PACSA Alleviation Program of the Social Costs of Adjustment Programme d'atténuation des coûts sociaux d'ajustement PAIPCE Job Creation and Private Initiatives Support Program Programme d'appui à l'initiative privée et à la création d'emplois PMAS Poverty Monitoring and Analysis System Système de suivi et d'analyse de la pauvreté PPA Participatory poverty assessment Evaluation participative de la pauvreté PSD Special Development Program Programme spécial du développement SAP Early warning system Service d'alerte précoce SNE National Water Company Société nationale de l'eau STD Sexually transmitted disease Maladie sexuellement transmissible UNDP United Nations Development Programme Programme des Nations Unies pour le développement UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund Fonds des Nations Unies pour l'enfance USAID United States Agency for International Development Agence des Etats-Unies pour le développement international WFP World Food Progran Programme alimentaire mondial Table of Contents Household welfare indicators............................................................................................... vi Preface........................................................................................................................................1 Executive sum m ary ............................................................................................................ 3 PART 1. CONTEXT AND POVERTY PROFILE................................................ 17 I. The country and macroeconomic context.......................................................................19 A hostile and degrading physical environment...............................19 A weak human resource base.............................. ................19 GDP and income trends.............................................20 Economic structure................................................20 Economic constraints and challenges.....................................21 Economic reforms ...............................................22 Impact of macroeconomic trends and policies on poverty........................23 I. Talaka: Poor people in Niger........................................ 25 The poor's perception of poverty in Niger..................................25 Income and expenditure poverty profile....................................32 Poverty trends....................................................50 PART 2. A FRAMEWORK FOR POVERTY REDUCTION. ....... .........53 III. Prospects for poverty decline and macroeconomic policies ....on.pove................55 Prospects for poverty decline .. .............................................................................. ...55 Macroeconomic policies veyn.........Nig.......................... ........58 Agricultural policy and food security .............................. ......60 IV. Social services ........................................... ......64 Education ...FRAMEN...................................................... 64 Health forpo.........overty.decline.and.macroeconomic.po.c...............................................71 Population vtdi..........n...........................................76 V. Safety nets and social action programs............................ ..... 80 The Job Creation and Private Initiatives Support Program ........................80 The Public Works and Employment Project.................................... ........... .................. 81 The Special Development Program......................................83 Food aid programs........................................... ..... 84 VI. Toward an action pan for poverty reduction .................................86 Developing a poverty action plan ........... .................................. .....86 Matrix of actions .................................................89 Concluding comments ..............................................92 Bibliography............................................................................................................................93 iii Annexes Annex I Methodology of the participatory poverty assessment in Niger ...................103 Annex II Socioeconomic tables........... ................ ....................105 Annex m Probit estimated coefficients...............................................115 Annex IV Health personnel and their distribution .......................................119 Boxes Box 1 Examples of remuneration in urban areas....................................27 Box 2 Views on migration by women of the Zarma Ganda village............. .............28 Box 3 Levels of poverty in rural areas ...................... ..............30 Box 4 Migrants who sell la boule in the Yantala District ..............................31 Box 5 School feeding programs......................... ................70 Box 6 Health care is expensive ....................................... ........74 Box 7 A woman's view of family planning. .......................................79 Figures Figure 1 Long-term trends of real GDP per capita, 1973-94 . .............................20 Figure 2 Sectoral shares of real GDP, 1973-93 ........................... ..............21 Figure 3 Consumer price index, 1988-95 (1990 = 100)................................24 Figure 4 Income distribution, 1993.............................. .................34 Figure 5 Cumulative income distribution, 1993 ...................... ..............35 Figure 6 Under-five mortality per 1,000 live births, 1980-90 ................ ............48 Figure 7 Poverty and inequality indicators for different scenaros..........................57 Figure 8 Urban and rural gross primary enrollment by gender and expenditure decile.... ...........65 Figure 9 Trends in gross enrollment rates by gender, 1970-92............................65 Tables Table Income and Gini coefficient by area, 1993....................................33 Table 2 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by locality............................36 Table 3 Poverty indices and contribution to extreme poverty by locality......................36 Table 4 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by distnri .............................37 Table 5 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by household size ........decil...............39 Table 6 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by sex of household head .................39 Table 7 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by education level of household head.........40 Table 8 Poverty level of rural population by socioeconomic group of the household head ..........41 Table 9 Poverty level of farmer/pastoralists poet. yhs............... i...................42 Table 10 Budget share by level of poverty and budget item (percent)........................42 Table 11 Budget share in urban areas by type of consumption (percent)......................43 Table 12 Monetay food expenditures share by income level (percent)........................43 Table 13 Food consumption per capita per year by poverty level (kilograms)..... .......................43 Table 14 Percentage of nutrient needs met, by poverty level and urban or rural residence.....................44 Table 15 Caloric requirement coverage by poverty level and locality ........................45 Table 16 Percentage of children under five malnourished by region f.th.oua................................47 Table 17 Infant and child mortality overty.n ............................................47 Table 18 Infant and child mortality by characteristics of the mother ..............48 Table 19 Access to water by income level for urban and rural areas (percent)........................49 iv Table 20 Expenditure structure for Niamey households in 1961 and 1989 ................50 Table 21 Gross enrollment rates by gender and region, 1993 (in percent) ............ .........65 Table 22 Cost of schooling in urban areas ........................................67 Table 23 Household education expenditure indicators per year .............................67 Table 24 Recurrent expenditure in education by level, 1985 and 1992 (percent) ....... .........69 Table 25 Recurrent expenditure in education by category of spending, 1985-92 (percent)...................69 Table 26 Prevalence of HIV and syphilis in selected groups.............................73 Table 27 Household health expenditure and indicators .....................................74 Table 28 Public health expenditures, 1991-94 (millions of CFAF).....................75 Table 29 Workers employed by NIGETIP.........................................83 Maps Map 1 Poor as a percentage of rural population.....................................37 Map 2 Extreme poor as a percentage of rural population...............................38 Map 3 Extreme poor as a percentage of poor population................................38 Map 4 Percentage of population with insufficient caloric intake .............. ............45 Map 5 Percentage of extreme poor population with insufficient caloric intake...........46 Map6 Percentage of population with inadequate access to water..........................50 Annex Map I Health service professionals: availability of licensed physicians .................121 Annex Map 2 Health service professionals: availability of registered nurses....... .....................122 Annex Map 3 Number of expected pregnancies per midwife ...................122 Map of Niger Glossary of Nigerien terms la boule A mixture of millet flour and curdled milk. hilaire Long-handled hoe for weeding; common tool used in sandy areas. marabout Traditional spiritual leader. niebe Cow peas; hardy, nutritious legume, widely grown and eaten in Africa. talaka The poor. tontine Widespread informal credit-savings group, typically created by women who contribute weekly amounts and take turns in receiving the pool. vouandzou A crop similar to the Bambara nut, a member of the leguminous family. zakka Charity given to the poor by an observant Muslim. v  Niger: Household welfare indicators qenpdare quitile Rural Urban IndictOr Unit of measurement Nadonal All 1 2 3 4 5 All 1 2 3 4 5 Source Demographic Indicators Total population Thousands 8,710 7,265 1,454 1,455 1,453 1,451 1,453 1,445 289 290 289 290 290 ENBC Female Percent 51 51 51 50 51 52 51 51 50 50 51 52 49 ENBC Population below 15 years Percent 49 49 53 52 52 48 43 50 55 52 52 49 44 ENBC Female Percent 49 49 50 48 49 50 49 49 47 49 50 51 47 ENBC Number ofhouseholds Thousandr 1,221 1,017 166 174 185 220 272 204 35 36 40 41 54 ENBC Average household size Number 7.1 7.1 8.8 8.3 7.9 6.6 5.3 7.1 8.4 8.2 7.3 7.1 5.4 ENBC Education and literacy rates Net primary enrollment (total) Percent 27 17 13 19 17 20 22 65 58 66 67 74 78 ENBC Male Percent 33 24 18 25 24 25 28 74 64 73 73 83 81 ENBC Female Percent 21 12 7 12 11 15 15 61 50 60 60 65 74 ENBC Literacy rates (total) Percent 14 11 11 9 9 10 13 34 23 27 30 37 48 ENBC Male Percent 20 15 16 15 14 13 19 43 31 36 40 48 56 ENBC Female Percent 10 6 7 5 5 8 8 25 16 18 21 27 40 ENBC Household type Monogamous male-headed Percent 59 60 61 58 61 60 59 54 55 54 60 55 48 ENBC Polygamous male-headed Percent 25 26 25 26 30 27 22 23 26 27 22 25 19 ENBC Single male-headed Percent 4 4 3 4 1 3 7 6 3 4 4 5 13 ENBC De-facto female-headed Percent 6 6 7 8 4 6 6 3 5 4 3 2 3 ENBC De-jure female-headed Percent 6 5 4 4 3 4 7 13 11 12 11 13 17 ENBC Employment of head Agropastoral activities Percent 76 88 92 92 89 91 82 13 19 17 16 12 6 ENBC Household expenditure Per capita expenditure Thousands (CFAF) 5 50 21 32 42 54 99 98 33 53 73 104 226 ENBC Food share in total expenditure Percent 32 29 27 27 26 29 35 51 57 56 54 50 40 ENBC Poverty Poverty line (PL) Thousands (CFAF) - 50-- - - - - 75 - - ----- pp-- - Population below PL Percent 63 66 - - - - - 52 - - - - - PP Extreme poverty line (EPL) Thousands (CFAF) - 35 - - - - - 50 - - - - - PP Population below EPL Percent 34 36 - - - - - 26 - - - - - PP Gini coefficient Percent 36 31 - - - - - 39 - - - - - PP Access to sanitation Percent 16 5 6 2 4 3 9 72 51 64 74 76 84 ENBC Access to water Pipe Percent 25 18 17 17 19 21 17 56 61 54 56 54 57 ENBC Well Percent 63 75 75 79 76 74 71 2 I 2 2 3 1 ENBC Other Percent 13 7 8 4 5 5 12 42 38 44 42 43 42 ENBC Mortality Infant mortality Deaths per 1,000 live birthr 134.5 142.6 - - - - - 89.0 - - - - - DHS Child mortality Deaths per 1,000 live births 221.4 238.1 - - - - - 133.2 - - - - - DHS Under-five mortality Deathe per 1,000 live births 326.1 346.8 - - - - - 210.3 - - - - - DHS Maternal mortality Deaths per 100000 live births 652.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - DHS Life expectancy Years 47.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - RGP Fertility Total fertility rate Births per woman 7.4 7.5 - - - - - 6.7 - - - - - DHS Immunization Measles % ofl 2-23 month old children 27.8 20.2 - - - - - 63.5 - - - - - DHS DTP % of] 2-23 month old children 20.3 11.0 - - - - - 63.8 - - - - - DHS BCG 16 ofl2-23 monthold children 39.9 29.3- - - - - - 89.4 - - - - ---- DHS Polio % of12-23 month old children 20.1 11.0 - - - - - 62.5 - - - - - DHS Child malnutrition Height-for-age (stunted) % ofchildren under five 32.3 33.9 - - - - - 25.5 - - - - - DHS Weight-for-height (wasted) % ofchildren underfive 15.3 16.7 - - - - - 12.0 - - - - - DHS Weight-for-age (undernourished) % ofchildren underfim 36.2 37.9 - - - 29.0 - - - - - DHS L PP = Poverty profile 1994 based on the ENBC. Sources: Budget and Consumption Household Survey (ENBC) 1993, Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)1992, and Population Census (ROP) 1988. vi  Preface 1. The Government of Niger views development as synonymous with poverty alleviation. Poverty has begun to receive more explicit policy consideration in recent years. The analysis and discussions in this report are intended to contribute to the government's formulation of an explicit action program against poverty and to greater sensitivity to the impact on the poor of policy and program development. It also responds to the request by the IDA Deputies that a poverty assessment (PA) be written for each borrower country to assess the extent and depth of poverty and to help Bank staff strengthen the poverty focus of Country Assistance Strategies (CAS). 2. Sustainable poverty reduction is the overarching objective of the World Bank. The World Development Report 1990 concluded that the countries most successful in reducing poverty have promoted policies that emphasize efficient growth and make productive use of the poor's most abundant resource-their labor. The Report suggests a three-pronged strategy against poverty: stimulate labor-intensive economic growth; improve access to basic social services; and provide social safety nets. This provides a framework for the analysis and recommendations in this report. 3. The report's objectives are: (a) to present a poverty profile that describes the socioeconomic characteristics of the poor; (b) to review the impact of past and current macroeconomic and social sector policies on poverty; and (c) to show how the analysis presented can help frame an action plan to reduce poverty and improve the living standards of poor households. The questions it tries to answer are: Who are the poor? How do they describe their situation? What are the geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic correlates of poverty? How have macroeconomic trends and policies affected poverty? What scope is there for poverty reduction in Niger, given the tight resource constraints? How well do human resource development expenditures and social safety nets benefit the poor? Beyond the government, the audience for this report is donors and development agencies working in Niger, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector, and individuals and organizations concerned about poverty alleviation. 4. This poverty assessment draws on considerable analytical work on Niger. It benefited from the documents and discussions of the working group preparing for a Round Table meeting on poverty and rural development which the government intends to hold in late 1996 and which is being supported by the United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP). The statistical sources for the poverty profile are the government's income and expenditure survey EnquOte sur le budget et la consommation des menages 1989-93, conducted by the Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilit6 nationale (DSCN) and financed partly by UNDP, and the demographic and health survey Enqu9te dimographique et de sant6 1992, financed by USAID. A qualitative survey people conducted by a Nigerien team-the participatory poverty assessment (PPA)-of over 250 urban and rural lets the voices of the poor be heard throughout the report. The bibliography itemizes an extensive list of documents which contributed to this report. Six are worth particular note-four draft World Bank documents: A Strategy to Promote Sustainable Agricultural Growth, The Food Security Strategy: Integrating Poverty Reduction and Growth, Women in Development, and The Environmental Strategy, and two independent publications: Politique macro-4onomique et pauvreti au Niger by the Centre d'6tudes et de recherches sur le d6veloppement international (CERDI) of the Universit6 de Clermont, Clermont-Ferrand, France, and Structural Adjustment and Stabilization in Niger: Macroeconomic Consequences and Social Adjustment, by Cathy L. Jabara of Cornell Food and Nutrition Policy Program (CFNPP), Cornell University, New York, U.S. The report was substantially completed before the political events of January 1996. 1 5. The Government of Niger has actively contributed to this poverty assessment. The lead and coordinating role has been taken by the Direction Gnerale du Plan (Ministry of Finance and Planning). The director of DSCN spent a month in Washington helping edit and clean the National Household Budget and Consumption Survey (ENBC) data and drafting the poverty profile. The Ministries of Social Development, Population, and Women's Affairs also contributed greatly. The Bank team worked closely with the group producing the government's document for the Round Table entitled Programme cadre national de lutte contre la pauvretg. The two reports are complementary and will be on the agenda of the Round Table as the basis for a dialogue on poverty reduction between the government and donors. Several donors have supported this report: the qualitative survey was financed by the Poverty Assessment Dutch Trust Fund; the poverty profile was financed by the Norwegian Africa Poverty Trust Fund and UNDP; and a forthcoming workshop and video will also be financed by the Poverty Assessment Dutch Trust Fund. 6. The report was prepared under the direction of Antoine Simonpietri, Africa Technical Department, Human Resources and Poverty Division (AFTHR), with the close collaboration of Susan Chase, Consultant, AFTHR. The Bank's main mission visited Niger in June 1994. A follow-up mission was led by Amadou Cissd, Country Economist for Niger, in February 1995. The team preparing the PA included: Joy de Beyer, (Contributing editor), Southern Africa Department, Population and Human Resources Division (AFlPH); Habib Fourati, Abdoullahi Beidou, and Essimi Menye, Statisticians (Poverty profile); Anna Martella, Sociologist and Marthe Diara, National Consultant (Participatory poverty assessment); Elizabeth Huybens, Economist (Public expenditures); Thierry Brun, Food Security Specialist (Food Security), AFTHR, Maina Boucar, Economist (Safety nets and Social action program); Ramatoulaye Barry, Economist (Donors and NGO programs); Hippolyte Fofack, Consultant, (Simulation models); Pierre Romand- Heuyer, Consultant, (Cartography). The team received strong input from Roger Key, Principal Economist, Makha Ndao, Education Specialist, Denise Valliancourt, Health Specialist, West Central Africa Department, Population and Human Resources (AF4PH); and Judith Harrington, Population Specialist, AFTHR. Peer reviewers are Lynne Sherburne-Benz, Poverty and Social Policy Department (PSP) and Willem van Eeghen, Middle East and North Africa Department, Office of the Regional Vice President (MNAVP). Resident mission staff, particularly Rougui Diallo, provided valuable support. 7. In May 1996, after the draft poverty assessment in French was produced and distributed, a mission visited Niger to discuss the findings, recommendations, and policy implications with the government, donors, NGOs, and other development partners interested in poverty alleviation in Niger. In particular, the mission met with the Groupe de travail chargg de la pr6paration de la Table Ronde sur la pauvretd et le dveloppement durable au Niger and participated in a workshop on the design of the national poverty alleviation program. 8. All those who reviewed the document perceived it as a fair representation of poverty in Niger. The team gathered comments relating to the updating and accuracy of figures and tables, and the clarification of meaning and emphasis, all of which have been integrated into the document. A few important issues such as gender, environment, and livestock were highlighted by various members of government and development partners as deserving an entire chapter and have been integrated into the document as a whole. Requests were made for a shorter, more accessible document, translated into local languages to be disseminated to a larger audience. This will be produced in the near future. 2 Executive summary The country context 1. Niger has a population of about 9.2 million, over half of whom live in poverty, with inadequate food and virtually no access to medical care, education, and other social services. Niger's per capita income (US$270 in 1994) and development indicators are among the worst in the world. About 80 percent of the population rely on agriculture for a living, but arable land is scarce and degrading under intensive use. Population growth is 3.3 percent and shows no sign of slowing, literacy is 14 percent, and only 27 percent of children enroll in school. One-third of Nigeriens are food-insecure and malnutrition is rife. One-quarter of children die before their fifth birthday. Life expectancy is only 47 years. 2. National income per capita increased between 1970 and 1980, fell precipitously until 1985, and then after a brief partial recovery declined steadily and slowly until 1993, after which economic growth resumed. The potential of the short-lived uranium boom of the 1970s was not realized and the prosperity the country enjoyed for a decade made only a fleeting difference to the lives of the poor. Weak macroeconomic management, sharp falls in uranium revenues, political instability, severe drought, and economic developments in the large trading partner Nigeria that adversely affected Niger made it difficult for the country to regain a steady growth path after 1980, despite repeated attempts by government to undertake economic reforms. Moreover, Niger's adjustment to the economic crisis may have worsened inequality and poverty-notably the protection of public-sector wages and the deep cuts in government expenditures on health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure (especially in rural areas). 3. In 1994, a democratically elected government took bold new steps, beginning with the long-overdue exchange rate realignment, that laid the groundwork for a new society that the National Convention of 1991 had helped to establish. A comprehensive package of economic and social measures was implemented that will, it is hoped, help revitalize the economy, begin to fill the backlog in the provision of health, family planning (FP), education, and other social services, and strengthen measures that safeguard the poor and others whose lives and livelihoods are jeopardized by periodic drought and economic adversity. In looking toward the future the report presents a simulation model of three different economic reforms for Niger. This model shows that even in the best-case scenario-that of slower population growth coupled with relatively robust economic growth-the number of poor will continue to increase. The scenarios confirm that Niger's fight against poverty constitutes a major challenge that must include strong economic growth-primarily in the agriculture sector. There is an urgent need for deep economic reforms and strong actions to help the poor. The poverty profile 4. A participatory poverty assessment (PPA) was conducted in urban and rural areas to ask the poor about their situation, their coping mechanisms, and the resources upon which they can draw. In urban areas, the key attribute of poverty that people spoke about was hunger. Some households interviewed had assets: a tiny minority had land and a house, and others had one or two sheep or goats which could be sold in the event of a crisis. Relatives, especially in a person's village of origin, neighbors, and friends are an important safety net, helping with food and clothes or the education of children. Many urban people retain strong reciprocal ties with rural relatives, 3 sending money and people to help in the fields during the peak labor time in exchange for part of the harvest. Rural relatives often come to towns looking for food and work during the dry season. 5. Those with waged employment consider themselves lucky and can save, invest, start small businesses, and marry a second wife. Jobs are not secure and many of the poor interviewed had formerly been employed. Self-employment is also precarious and small commercial ventures tend to be only marginally profitable. Few people had ever taken formal credit, but many borrowed from relatives or friends to pay for medicines or ceremonies, when other needs arose, or to start small businesses. Begging is a last resort for the urban poor, but increasing numbers of able- bodied people are joining the "traditional" beggars in Niamey-the old and handicapped. 6. For rural people, access to scarce arable land was the most pressing issue. The poor were described as having little or no land and many young or elderly dependents; the non-poor have land and able-bodied family members to work it. Land tenure rights are currently not protected and will be codified once the complementary regulations to the Rural Code are enacted. The poor work for others or migrate, although getting by during hard times was described as being increasingly difficult, with deteriorating returns to migrating. Many rural people try to diversify their income source, but the options are limited and poorly paid. Even better-off farmers are vulnerable to bad weather, lack of proper storage, and other threats to stock. Many farmers get into debt, sell crops to repay, and then are short of food in the months before the harvest. Traditional communal charity, savings clubs, and small rural credits were mentioned among the resources available to the rural poor. 7. The Income and Expenditure Surveys conducted in 1989 and 1993 and the Demographic and Health Survey of 1992 are rich data sources for a quantitative poverty profile. Urban/rural differentials are stark, with average urban incomes being twice those in rural areas. The government has defined poverty income lines which classify 63 percent of Nigeriens as poor (5.3 million people), including 34 percent of the population (2.8 million people) who are extremely poor. Most of the poor live in rural areas. Poverty is strongly associated with large family size, a lack of education, owning little or no livestock, diets deficient in protein, vegetables, and dairy products, and (in rural areas) having a woman as household head. Estimates, although subject to methodological and data caveats, suggest that in years of good rainfall, there is enough food grown or imported into Niger to allow adequate nutrition for the entire population. The caloric intake of the poor, however, is marginal and deficient in several nicronutrients. A quarter of the very poor, especially in rural areas, falls short of its protein/energy needs and is deficient in micronutrients. Everyone-even the urban non-poor-is vulnerable to deficiencies in vitamin A and calcium. In total, it is estimated that more than 4.2 million people in Niger-about half the population--do not have enough to eat even when rainfall is good. 8. These food deficiencies are reflected in high malnutrition rates. Of children under five (the most vulnerable group nutritionally), one in three is stunted (low height-for-age) and one in six is emaciated or wasted (low weight-for-height). These rates are fourteen and seven times respectively the expected levels for children in a healthy population. Thirty-seven percent of children under five are underweight for their age. Poor nutritional status interacts with poor health, worsening the -impact of each and leading to one of the worst rates of infant and child mortality in the world-123 and 318 respectively per 1,000-and one of the lowest life expectancies, of only 47.2 years. The poor are particularly affected by poor sanitation and inaccessible health care, low maternal education, and high fertility. 4 9. There are virtually no direct data on trends in poverty. The indirect data-the correlates of poverty-suggest modest long-term gains that have stalled over the past ten or fifteen years, indicating probable worsening of poverty during this period. A key indicator, real GDP per capita, fell by almost 74 percent since 1980, with a greater decline in rural than urban areas. In Niamey (the only part of the country for which there is comparable income and expenditure data for two points in time), the share of income spent on food has increased since 1961-62. Child mortality seems to have deteriorated across the country since 1980. No data are available to show trends in nutrition. Gains in literacy, enrollment, access to health care, and life expectancy have been minimal. 10. Since 1994 the economy may have entered a sustainable growth path and there is a new commitment in government to address poverty. Sound macroeconomic policies have been adopted to correct the fiscal imbalances that had built up. Inflation is stable and the exchange rate is at a sustainable and realistic level. However, external debt burdens the economy, unemployment is high, and labor demand is stagnant. The political situation remains tense. Agriculture is hostage to pressures on the limited arable land, uncertain rainfall, and periodic drought, and environmental degradation is difficult to check or reverse. There is sufficient water to triple the surface area currently under irrigation, although tapping this potential would require expensive infrastructure investment. Niger has had neither the socioeconomic changes nor the strong family planning programs that have slowed population growth elsewhere, and persistent high fertility may prove to be one of the biggest barriers to poverty alleviation. Determined government leadership and social action could help begin a fertility decline, in the context of improved reproductive health care, that would raise living standards for individual women, families, communities, and the nation. A framework for poverty reduction 11. A framework for poverty reduction will assist the Government of Niger in formulating an action plan against poverty. Consensus has been reached among policymakers and development partners that a strategy against poverty must include a three-pronged approach: sound macroeconomic policies that stimulate labor-intensive and sustainable growth, better access to basic social services, and safety nets. The policy and program recommendations made in this report and those that have arisen from discussions between the Government of Niger and the World Bank amount to a huge agenda, implying reform in the activities and structures of government ministries. Each government ministry should articulate its strategy within a realistic budget and investment plan, with clear priorities that donors can help finance and implement. Prospects for poverty decline 12. The prospects for economic growth-and poverty reduction-are better for the coming years than they have been in the recent past. Previously, GDP was growing slower than population, causing a continuous slide in per capita consumption and an increase in poverty. But in the coming decade, overall GDP growth is expected to reach 4.2 percent, slightly above the population growth rate. Average consumption per capita should rise at about 0.8 percent annually if planned policy changes are implemented and have the desired impact on agriculture and the economy, and if external conditions-especially the weather-are not adverse. Under this plausible but optimistic scenario, the proportion of the population in poverty would fall from 63.5 percent to 58 percent by 2005, although the number of poor would continue to rise by more than 1.5 million people over the decade, from 5.8 to 7.4 million people. 5 13. A strong family planning program, supported by community leaders, with an information campaign to boost its demand, would enable a decline in fertility and consequently in poverty. Such a program would help slow the increase in population, lower the number of poor and raise average per capita consumption. Not only would a smaller percentage of the population be poor, but the severity of poverty would be less. Without any fall in fertility, it would take a 6 percent growth rate in GDP to effect an improvement in all three poverty indices-the number of poor, the proportion of poor, and the severity of poverty. 14. Unfavorable external conditions-especially drought, further internal political upheaval that stalled democratization and the economic reform program, or a failure to implement successfully the measures identified for improving agricultural productivity-could result in a low growth outcome that would further reduce per capita income and increase the incidence and severity of poverty in Niger. This dismal prospect underlines the importance of continuing sound fiscal and economic management, pro-poor economic and social policies, sustainable safety-net programs, and progress in acceptance and availability of family planning. 15. A simulation exercise has been carried out that examines three scenarios, assuming different patterns and rates of economic growth with different rates of population growth. The results of this'exercise support the hypothesis that two critical factors should dominate the Niger poverty reduction strategy simultaneously: * Increased agricultural growth. Agriculture is the motor of poverty reduction for Niger and the macroeconomic and sectoral policies, as well as broad institutional development, should support this objective; * Reduced population growth is vital to sustain improvements in poverty status. Education and health policies, including access to family planning, and the legal and social environment should support this objective. Without a combined effort of increasing agricultural growth and reducing population, Niger will experience poverty levels of catastrophic proportion. Macroeconomic policies 16. The sound program of macroeconomic adjustment and fiscal discipline that has been developed must be implemented to guide policy actions. A successful adjustment should move the economy onto a higher growth path and bring improvement in living standards. A few of the measures from the integrated reform program to restore growth and reduce poverty may be singled out as particularly relevant to a poverty strategy. First, there can be no significant poverty reduction without improving rural incomes. The strategy for agriculture is a cornerstone of a poverty reduction strategy. Second, wage restraint by the public sector is important for fiscal prudence and for its impact on the general structure of labor costs in the modern sector. Labor costs affect employment and growth, and thus poverty, as well as urban and rural income disparities. Third, if government is to realize its role in providing social services and infrastructure that will raise productivity and living standards and enable the poor (and others) to take advantage of economic opportunities, scarce public investment resources must be focused more on infrastructure and primary education and primary health care services, especially in rural areas. Certain critical inputs such as drugs, operating expenses for agricultural extension staff, and chalk and books for schools must be available, so that massive capital investments and expenditures on 6 physical infrastructure and staff can result in effective service delivery. Fourth, slower population growth would free resources for improving living standards and make life better at all levels from individual to national. A strong population policy should be part of the government macroeconomic strategy. It should center on strong commitment, actions, and financing to provide good information and family planning services in the context of broader health care for families, to enable people to freely choose and realize their desired family size and timing, with a good understanding of the consequences of those choices for their own health and well-being and that of their children and later generations. Agriculture policy and food security 17. Proactive policies to enhance rural incomes must be a cornerstone of a poverty reduction strategy because of the economic dominance of agriculture in Niger, the extent of food insecurity, especially among the poor concentrated in rural areas, and the disparity between urban and rural incomes. The government strategy for agriculture and food security aims to improve access to food, to stabilize the food supply, and to foster alternate sources of employment and income in agriculture. The strategy requires committed government funding and high-quality management. 18. Activities to improve access to food include agriculture sector support and liberalization measures. With past price and marketing reforms, the sector has been satisfactorily liberalized. With respect to sector support, one of the highest priorities is to reverse the degradation of agricultural land that results from intensive use. Low-cost effective measures are well known and extension is needed to disseminate this knowledge. The irrigation potential could be tapped by applying experience from other countries with similar conditions to improve traditional irrigation, tillage, and techniques for intercropping, soil preparation, planting, and contouring to reduce runoff and erosion. There is scope for greater diversification of agricultural output, in particular growing high-value export crops which use less water and for which a market exists where Niger is competitive. Prospects also exist for increasing animal husbandry productivity and exports of live animals and meat. 19. The stability of food supply has improved because of the establishment of local grain banks, the liberalization of measures to increase efficiency of local and export markets, the management of the national emergency food reserve, and the implementation of an early warning and disaster response system to ensure rapid response to adverse food supply situations. To increase potential for alternate sources of employment and income, the government is promoting small rural enterprises and providing employment through labor-intensive public works schemes. Investing in rural infrastructure by complementing the primary road network action plan with a rural road investment program using labor-intensive techniques will provide jobs as well as roads. 20. Institutional reforms have been identified and need to be implemented to: improve security of land tenure through implementing and supplementing the Rural Code; remove discrimination against women by enacting the Family Code, eliminating discriminatory laws, and facilitating women's access to capital, education, and technical expertise; and make extension services more effective by restructuring and rationalizing key ministries and improving budget allocations to ensure that extension workers have the logistic and other support needed to perform effectively. Further market deregulation and withdrawal from activities that could be managed by the private sector would focus scarce public resources on areas in which the private sector typically does not intervene, such as building and maintaining infrastructure, establishing security 7 of tenure, setting up environmental standards, and managing extension services, agricultural research, water irrigation, and transportation. 21. Interventions to improve nutritional information and to provide services to deal with malnutrition in a timely manner are especially important to the poor. Community-based growth monitoring, including problem solving and advice, possibly delivered by peers rather than health care workers, can be effective in detecting infants at risk and in acting before malnutrition has progressed. Many countries have found this approach cost-effective if well managed, possibly by the national health system with support from NGOs. Information to farmers of both genders could encourage families to grow more fruits and vegetables to diversify their diets. Health care workers need training in nutrition to better deal with malnutrition. Social services 22. Investing in education and health (which includes nutrition programs and family planning programs) is the starting point to fulfilling the second key element of the poverty reduction strategy. In Niger, greater human resource development will help restore conditions for economic growth. Education is an effective weapon against poverty. Better education will facilitate increased returns to labor, improve standards of living, health, and nutrition, and possibly reduce fertility. Primary education for girls has been shown to have strong social benefits. Improving health by lowering the incidence of infectious and parasitic illnesses, especially among children, and lowering fertility by reducing demand for large families are critical to progressing toward growth. Despite Niger's efforts to expand investments in the social sector, much remains to be done to increase access by the poor. Expenditures need to be retargeted toward rural areas-where 80 percent of the poor live-and the intrasectoral expenditure allocations need to be retargeted toward the primary levels in both education and health. 23. EDUCATION. The 1992-93 primary school enrollment rate of 27 percent places Niger among the five worst countries in the world, with large disparities between urban and rural areas, between boys and girls, and between poor and less poor children. Only 5 or 6 percent of the worst- off group-poor rural girls-are in school, compared to over 80 percent of the children of the highest income group in Niamey. Despite recognition of the benefits of education, numerous factors inhibit enrollment, especially for the poor-long distances from schools (especially in rural areas), high direct and indirect opportunity costs of schooling, low quality of education, perception of little relevance of curriculum to family needs, low probability of children doing well enough to be hired in the modem sector, and traditional attitudes towards girls marrying young. 24. In response to declining primary enrollment rates in the early 1980s, the government began building more classrooms and starting second shifts in urban areas, redeploying teachers from administrative tasks to classrooms, and allocating more funds for books and teaching materials. These measures are showing some success, but there has been no progress in reducing the share of the education budget to tertiary and higher education. Education has claimed a consistent 21 percent of total government spending. Spending per pupil fell during the fiscal crisis and, despite some recovery, remains below its 1981 level. Primary enrollment is 18 percent in rural areas, where most of the poor live, which means that public funds for education are extremely inequitably distributed. Few poor children benefit and most of the benefits of public spending on education go to better-off urban children and the privileged 4,700 university students who receive public fellowships (which are about 9.5 times the median per capita income). Activities supported by NGOs and donors, especially school feeding programs, have a better distributional impact. 8 25. Primary school enrollment must be increased, especially for rural children and for girls, and the quality of education must be improved to raise productivity and therefore incomes and living standards. The following measures are recommended: * Priority should be given to schools in rural areas when hiring additional teachers, rehabilitating and constructing classrooms, and allocating materials and supplies. Measures are underway: the Basic Education Sector Project (Hybrid) finances the construction or rehabilitation of 3,270 classrooms (mostly in rural areas) and the purchase of 2.8 million textbooks, and the government is hiring 520 new primary school teachers annually. * An evaluation of the constraints to girls' enrollment should be undertaken and programs launched to increase it, with special attention toward monitoring progress. * Spending on textbooks and other teaching and learning materials must increase, especially at the primary level. This increased spending coupled with the expansion in teachers and enrollment implies an increase in the share of the primary education budget. * Programs to enhance the quality of teaching and the relevance of skills taught in primary and lower secondary schools should be analyzed. * School feeding programs should become a key feature in the poverty reduction strategy, provided an analysis of the impact of these programs finds them effective. 26. HEALTH. Access to health is poor. Only 30 percent of Nigeriens live within 5 kilometers of a health facility. In 1989 just 20 percent of births were in health facilities and one-third of pregnant women received prenatal care, with marked differences between rural and urban areas. The quality of care in public facilities-especially in rural areas-is poor, with shortages of drugs and other inputs. Drugs are unaffordable for many people. Although HIV prevalence is fairly low when compared with global and African regional statistics, it is increasing, and sexually transmitted disease (STD) rates are high, which bodes ill for the spread of AIDS. Urban people tend to be harder hit by HIV than rural people, so this is one scourge that does not affect the poor disproportionately. However, there are several connections between poverty and AIDS: sex workers, engaged in an occupation of last resort for poor women, are highly vulnerable; poor access to health care may imply a higher rate of STDs for poorer people and hence a greater risk of AIDS; and AIDS-related illnesses are devastating to poor families without savings to cover medical and burial costs. 27. Public resources for health have been relatively well protected during the fiscal crisis, albeit inequitably distributed-over 80 percent of health staff work in urban areas and three- quarters of public expenditures on health is for health care that benefits a minority of the population in urban areas. Budgetary allocations are also inefficient. Reallocation of public expenditures from hospitals to primary health and from curative to preventive medicine could improve access and health across the country. 28. The government's health strategy in the Health Development Plan 1994-2000 (Plan de d6veloppement sanitaire 1994-2000) calls for: a) increasing the share of health expenditures in the budget; b) improving the quality and coverage of basic health services; c) improving sector efficiency and effectiveness through management strengthening and decentralization, emphasizing resource mobilization through cost recovery, and reallocating resources more equitably; d) improving the supply and distribution of essential generic drugs and making them more affordable to the population; and e) strengthening partnerships with NGOs, universities, the private sector, 9 communities, and unions. The strategy aims to reallocate resources to address the four imbalances which weaken the sector's efficiency: curative versus preventive, hospital versus primary, urban versus rural, and to redress regional disparities. Ten aspects are critical for poverty alleviation: * Rural areas and areas with the worst health coverage and infrastructure should receive priority for public investments and current expenditures. Health personnel need incentives to relocate to rural areas. * The Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) should be more effective through decentralization and increased community participation. * Although an estimated package of health care can be provided in most low-income countries for about US$8 per person, in Niger it costs more because of the immense size of the country and the population dispersion. The planned increase in the total government budget is essential. * Efficient procurement and distribution of essential generic drugs should be a priority to improve availability and keep costs low. * A new law passed requires cost recovery to be introduced. Studies in some countries- including pilot trials in Niger-have shown that cost recovery schemes improve service utilization if they incorporate improvements in service and quality-better drug availability, staff upgrading, better deployment, and extended hours. An evaluation should be undertaken to assess its impact on the poor. * The Ministry of Health's intention to encourage partners in health care-NGOs, communities, academics and others-will benefit the poor, as these partners target activities to areas of greatest need. * Nutrition programs rely on donor initiatives-programs supported by UNICEF and smaller NGOs, such as Caritas. Cost-effective initiatives need to be integrated into the health ministry's programs. * Contingency plans should be developed to respond to public health emergencies, such as the meningitis outbreak in 1995, with rapid actions and public information. * Increase monitoring of health indicators-both process and impact-supplemented by operational research, beneficiary assessments, and periodic evaluations would enable MOPH to learn from experience and improve basic service delivery to the poor. * Programs to provide access to safe water should be launched with community participation. 29. POPULATION. High population growth exacerbates poverty in Niger. Even with high mortality rates, the very high fertility rate-on average more than seven live births per woman- makes the population growth rate 3.3 percent per year, putting Niger among the fastest growing two or three countries in the world. The total population will increase from 8.3 million people in 1988 to 11 million by the year 2000, which will increase the pressure on scarce land, food, and water resources. Early childbearing, short intervals between births, and large families drain women's health and energy, stretch household resources to feed, clothe, and educate children, and trap new generations into poverty. In the face of such rapid population growth, just maintaining current social service provision is a challenge, let alone improving it. 30. Only 4.4 percent of married women of childbearing age use contraceptives, and about half of these use modem methods. Attitudes are strongly pronatalist, although there are signs of change, especially among younger people and urbanites. Family planning (FP) services are sparse, available in only a third of health facilities, with little private sector involvement. Government support for FP dates from 1981, but recent initiatives aim to expand services by training health 10 staff, enabling village volunteers to distribute contraceptives and providing grants to NGOs that carry out FP activities. 31. For women and families, communities and the nation, expansion and social acceptance of FP services might be the most effective short- and long-term action against poverty. Social changes play an important role in reducing desired fertility, especially expanded educational and labor market opportunities for women and better health services that reduce infant and child mortality. The adoption of the Family Code and legal enactments of non-discrimination against women is important in improving women's and family welfare. In countries where popular opinion and political factors have appeared inimical to FP, government leadership and public campaigns have increased family planning acceptability and modem contraceptive use. Government plans and efforts are in the right direction but need strong commitment, finding, and expansion, especially in rural areas where most of the poor live and where FP access is most limited. FP services should continue to be provided free when cost recovery begins. Safety nets and social action programs 32. In Niger periodic droughts, chronic poverty, and the implementation of structural economic reforms with adverse temporary effects increase the need for safety nets and social action programs-the third key element in the poverty reduction strategy. Safety nets and social action programs protect vulnerable groups against poverty brought on by short-term calamities, seasonal vagaries, and economic changes and provide a minimal level of support to chronically poor groups who are unable to provide for themselves, usually because of age, illness, disability, or destitution. Two target groups are distinguished-one has the potential of being self-supporting and needs only to have its survival strategies and productive potential tapped, whereas the other needs permanent help through transfers that supplement local and informal safety nets and redistributive mechanisms. 33. Informal mechanisms and coping strategies exist, such as transfers among households of dependents or productive members; cash and food transfers among households: temporary migration of part or all of a household; and loans and savings and credit groups. Since 1988 Niger has implemented three social action programs and several food aid programs, with varying impacts and cost effectiveness, funded jointly by donors and government. 34. Between 1988 and 1991 the Job Creation Initiatives Support Program (PAIPCE) provided 435 people (mostly civil servants) with training and assistance in applying for loans. It was expensive and unsustainable, with a high cost per job created and a high rate of default on loans. A greater success was the Public Works and Employment Project, which began in 1991. A small, efficient, professional, specially created agency called Agence nigrienne de travaux d'intre public pour 1 emploi (NIGETIP) manages the donor and government funds for urban infrastructure rehabilitation and construction contracts, for which the private sector competes. Projects must allocate at least 20 percent of costs to labor, begin within 3 months, and be "socially useful." NIGETIP manages and supervises the construction contracts and through high volume and efficiency has managed to keep overhead costs low at 3.5 percent. The project has been successful in creating jobs in urban areas through labor-intensive infrastructure development. Efforts are being made to expand activities to rural areas. The Special Development Program funded by France since 1994 is similar but smaller in scale. 11 35. Five delivery mechanisms exist for food aid in Niger that reach different target groups: (a) school feeding programs (cantines scolaires) that provide meals to 300 schools or 20,000 primary level students; (b) health centers that provide food to malnourished children, mothers, and infants; (c) an NGO (Caritas) that distributes food to the needy in Niamey; (d) food-for-work programs managed by government and NGOs that use food (sometimes with cash) as a wage for working on public infrastructure, mostly in rural areas; and (e) cereal banks into which fhrmers "deposit" crops and receive cash loans to be repaid by selling grain "withdrawn" from the food bank later in the year when food prices rise. The donors for food aid projects include the Deutsche Gesellschaft fir Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), the European Development Fund, and the World Food Program (WFP). No comprehensive evaluation exists, but data suggest that the employment impact of food aid projects has been significant and the low wage rates make programs successful in targeting poor households. In urban areas, unemployed men tend to head the queues for work and to crowd out women if there are fewer jobs than work seekers. Most workers in rural areas are women and children from poorer households. This work tends to be offered in the dry season when men migrate to work at higher rates. Food aid programs are expanding and are positively regarded by donors, government, and beneficiaries. Problems have arisen with availability of complementary inputs (management, capital and goods, and materials and transport) and with the lack of consultation with communities. Food aid projects, however, play a role in a poverty reduction strategy. 36. Government financial and managerial resources are constrained and donor resources finite, whereas the need for safety net and social action programs to transfer income and deliver food aid to the poor is immense. The experience of programs implemented in Niger and elsewhere needs to be scrutinized so that resources can be channeled in an efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable way. Another criterion for choosing programs is success in targeting the intended beneficiaries with minimal leakage. Local involvement in selecting activities and eligible beneficiaries, guided by clear criteria, has improved program effectiveness in other countries. NGOs, including religious organizations, have helped deliver and manage services, reducing overhead costs and simplifying administration and management. Programs must include good monitoring systems that provide quick feedback to enable decisions to be made about continuing, changing, enlarging, or ending programs so that scarce resources can make an impact on poverty. Developing a poverty action plan 37. The government's aim is to develop a poverty reduction action plan. It is expected that the government will lead this effort with support from donors, NGOs, and others within and outside Niger committed to reducing poverty. The World Bank is ready to provide analytical and financial support for a detailed poverty action plan. It is hoped that the matrix of actions will be an input to such an action plan and will launch the definition of key priorities. 38. Representatives of the poor must participate in defining an action plan. Most countries have little experience with participation by beneficiaries, but those that have taken this bold step have found it worthwhile. The poor know their situation, needs, and constraints as seen in the qualitative poverty profile. Their participation in the task force or other planning body will help to ensure that a poverty action plan will be appropriate. Often simple solutions can be identified at the local level and problems can be avoided at the planning phase. In Niger, the recent democratization and movement towards decentralization provides an excellent environment for community involvement in planning and implementation. NGOs and organizations have experience with participatory methodologies and could help achieve participation by legitimate representatives of 12 the poor. The action plan should articulate how local communities can be involved in the design, implementation, and evaluation of the poverty alleviation strategy. 39. Poverty alleviation will be an important part of the agenda of the Round Table on Rural Development and Poverty to be held in late 1996. If there is consensus on a framework and broad outlines of a poverty strategy in the country's growth strategy, a working group or task force can be formed to use the recommendations in this document and in the preparatory document to the Round Table to describe specific activities, calculate their costs-including implementation-and define the target outcomes and a set of indicators for monitoring progress. The proposed matrix of actions provides some input to this process. Financing the poverty action plan 40. Poverty in Niger is pervasive and resources are scarce, so priorities and difficult choices must be made. It is therefore important to estimate expected costs and benefits and hence the cost- effectiveness of activities and programs under consideration to choose those that will have the biggest impact on poverty. Estimating costs and benefits and assigning monetary values to them can be extremely difficult. However, even when these estimates are fairly rough, if a consistent methodology is used it should be possible to categorize proposed activities and see which should be rejected and which should be pursued. Moreover, the attempt to estimate cost-effectiveness should sensitize decisionmakers to the importance of making rational choices and tradeoffs to use constrained resources effectively. 41. Implementing a poverty reduction action plan will be a challenge that should draw on every segment of Nigerien society. It should benefit from the involvement of partners at every stage in the design and implementation of the plan. Government should recognize that, although it is the main provider of funds, communities, NGOs, and civil society play potentially major roles in the definition, implementation, execution, and follow-up actions necessary to reduce poverty. The action plan will thus be defined according to those who participate in its definition and who are committed to its implementation. 42. Total resources for implementation need to be made available. Sources of funding need to be identified. Activities need to be phased so that implementation can be within resource constraints. Donors' grants or other concessionary financing often need additional resources from the government. Projects and programs have been delayed in the past due to the unavailability of local contributions of counterpart funds. The Nigerien Government needs to be aware of its role in providing additional funding and the action plan should be designed accordingly. Detailed planning with strong participation by the Finance Ministry will help ensure that planned government contributions are realistic. Timetables for activities should be drawn up. The greater the detail of the poverty action plan, the more likely it will be well implemented. The implementing agencies for each activity should take the lead in planning detailed timetables of specific activities. 43. Financing an action plan against poverty in Niger will require large contributions from the donor community which are certainly justified, given the high level of poverty. The assurance of aid flows, however, is dependent on the international community's perception of the Nigerien Government's commitment to poverty alleviation, particularly through its allocation of public expenditures. 13 Targeting the poverty action plan 44. Most programs and activities will be implemented only in parts of the country and will benefit only certain people. Targeting methods need to be identified and used to channel benefits to intended beneficiaries and to keep leakage to the non-poor as low as possible. Geographic targeting by district, area, or village, wherever poverty levels are highest, could be facilitated by the use of poverty maps. The Budget and Consumption Survey (ENBC) has identified the geographic incidence of poverty and some of its correlates, which will help determine priority areas where activities should be concentrated. A poverty action plan needs to target the groups affected by poverty and to define the most effective interventions. The analysis in Chapter II has identified several poverty groups and potentially beneficial actions: * The destitute with low levels of nutrition and no assets or work, depend on gifts and charity. These include the handicapped, the ill and elderly without families, and street children. Their numbers are unknown. Social safety nets and welfare measures are needed but issues of affordability must be faced. * An estimated 2.1 million extremely poor people who suffer chronic food insecurity. Most are farmers with little land and no animals. An additional 1.2 million poor have insufficient food but slightly higher incomes and assets. These groups need supplementary food and better access to social services and measures that improve their employment opportunities. * People who succeed in meeting their food requirements in an average year may still be vulnerable to drought and other crises. Sound macroeconomic and agricultural policies will help promote economic opportunities for them. Expanded access to social services will also improve their well-being. Safety nets and programs to support traditional coping mechanisms could help them through crises. * Nomads, although not covered in the surveys, have strenuous lives and suffer during drought. Their lifestyle make it difficult to deliver health, education, and other services. Nomads need to participate in designing and implementing appropriate targeted poverty alleviation programs. Poverty monitoring 45. A system for monitoring the impact of interventions on the poor, levels and trends of poverty, the poor's access to social services, targeted programs and economic infrastructure, and their own assessment of their situation is needed. Rapid feedback gives information to program administrators, financiers, and policymakers on how well programs are reaching their intended beneficiaries and how effectively scarce resources are being used. It facilitates good planning, improvements in existing programs, and sound decisions on future policies and programs. A combination of large nationally representative surveys of household income and expenditure, small ad hoc surveys, routine administrative records on health, education, and agriculture extension; and qualitative assessments like the PPA can supply data needed. The processing, analysis, and use of data, including routine administrative data, need strengthening. 46. It would be useful to institutionalize an annual review of the poverty levels and trends in Niger and of the government's poverty reduction strategy, including monitoring progress in meeting targets and objectives. These tasks could be done by an existing unit which would need to be strengthened or by a new unit established for this purpose. 14 Matrix of actions 47. A matrix of actions, which can be found at the end of Chapter VI, summarizes the policy and program recommendations concerning poverty made in this report and those that have arisen from discussions between the Government of Niger and the World Bank. It will serve as a basis for discussion with the Government and other development partners. The matrix presents an ambitious agenda that, if successfully implemented, would reverse the worsening of poverty. 48. The matrix is designed in four columns: objective, strategy and action, indicator, and key actors. In the first column, five broad objectives have been identified and described as key areas of intervention for the poverty reduction agenda. Strategies and actions have been recommended to make progress in one of the five objectives. Some recommended strategies and actions are relevant to more than one objective but have been placed under the objective where they could be the most effective. It is hope that as the detailed agenda evolves with increased participation from government and development partners and becomes a full-fledged poverty action plan, it will include targeted outcomes that can be measured statistically using the following indicators: number of poor, poverty indices, Gini coefficient, and a poverty profile. Each indicator should be calculated, where possible and applicable, by gender, region, and expenditure level, and incorporated in the poverty monitoring and analysis system. 49. Success in reducing poverty in Niger will depend on strong, sustained government commitment to sound macroeconomic and social policies, favorable external conditions, partnership among interest groups, and long-term donor support. The more the government demonstrates a persistent commitment to sound economic and public management, the more willing others will be to support a poverty reduction action plan. Little can be done to thwart external conditions except to anticipate and mitigate their impact with sound policies and programs. Yet the existence of the many partners and interest groups is a source of great strength for Niger. If a joint coalition (front commun contre la pauvret9) could be mobilized, that included government, central and local administrations, unions, the private sector, communities and organizations of civil society, local and international NGOs, multilateral and bilateral donors, and development banks, poverty in Niger could be reduced. Recovery and sustainable development-bringing real improvements in living standards and welfare for the people of Niger-may be within reach. 15  PART 1. CONTEXT AND POVERTY PROFILE 17  I. The country and macroeconomic context 1. Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a per capita income of US$270 in 1993. In 1992 Niger's GDP ranking was 145th out of 161 countries. The Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.209 put Niger even lower-169th out of 173 countries. Poverty is widespread, and worse in rural areas than in cities. The Nigerien population is estimated at 9.2 million in 1995, of which about 80 percent are subsistence agriculturalists. Niger faces problems encountered in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)-rapid population growth, sluggish modem sector growth, variable agricultural performance, and environmental degradation. The high population growth and recurrent drought make the problems particularly acute. A hostile and degrading physical environment 2. Niger is large and landlocked, covering an area of 1.27 million square kilometers, 600 kilometers from the nearest coast. In 1965, 25 percent of Niger's land was arable; now it is estimated at 12 percent because of a shift south of the 300 mm isohyet-the line which marks annual rainfall sufficient for agricultural production. In addition, this resource base is declining because of rapid population growth, migration to the south following recurrent drought, and stagnant non-agricultural employment opportunities. About 85 percent of the population lives in a corridor 100 to 150 kilometers wide, north of the Nigerian border. The increase in agricultural labor supply in this area leads to intensive use of soils of low fertility. Declining fallow periods, movement into areas of marginal fertility, and encroachment by agriculturists on traditional livestock areas have contributed to soil erosion, watershed degradation, and declining yields. Household energy requirements put pressure on woodland resources resulting in deforestation. A weak human resource base 3. Niger's social indicators are among the lowest in the world. Life expectancy at birth is 47 years. About one-quarter of children die before their fifth birthday. The infant mortality rate is estimated at 134 per thousand live births; child mortality is 221 per thousand live births. A third of the population lacks food security; among children under five, 33 percent suffler chronic malnutrition and 15 percent are acutely malnourished-a dismal situation compared with other African countries. The primary gross enrollment ratio is 27 percent-33 percent for males and 21 for females. About 86 percent of the population over fifteen years of age is illiterate (51 percent for SSA)-80 percent of males are illiterate and 90 percent of females. Because modern sector employment is contracting, workers must join traditional agriculture and informal sectors where earnings are low and opportunities to acquire new skills are limited. 4. Niger has one of the highest population growth rates in the world-3.3 percent (2.8 percent for SSA). Total fertility is about 7.4 (6.4 for SSA) and rising. Half the population is under fifteen years of age. Efforts to increase the level of skills and to improve the health status of the Nigerien population are crucial for sustained growth and poverty alleviation, but these efforts are overwhelmed by the number of children born each year and the backlog in social services coverage. 19 GDP and income trends 5. Real GDP per capita increased rapidly in the 1970s as a result of a favorable market for the country's uranium production. In 1980 per capita income peaked at US$590 in 1990 prices (see Figure 1). Since then, a long-term decline in uranium prices has reversed the gains of that sector. In addition, drought conditions reduced agricultural output in the early 1980s. In the second half of the 1980s, improved weather and implementation of economic reforms brought a modest recovery but during the 1990s, weak implementation of economic policies and drought led to negative growth. Throughout these events, rapid demographic growth inexorably eroded per capita incomes. Since 1994, the devaluation of the CFAF and renewed implementation of economic reforms has allowed modest growth to resume and there is cautious optimism that this may continue. A fitted linear trend line has a negative slope; a quadratic trend function tracks the cycles more closely. Figure 1 Long-term trends of real GDP per capita (in 1990 prices), 1973-95 6on Real GDP/capita 1990 prices n n Quadratic trend 100 0 Source: World Bank estimates. Economic structure 6. The primarily urban modem economy includes uranium, the public sector, and other formal enterprises. It provides an income to less than 10 percent of the Nigerien work force but contributes a sizable share of GDP and government revenues. The economic agents of the modern sector are the most vocal group in Niger and are the force behind labor unions. Their political pressure has played a key role in determining the composition of government spending. Uranium provides about 70 percent of export revenues and the country is, therefore, vulnerable to developments in the world uranium market. The large urban informal sector depends on demand for its services from the employees of the modern sector. Agriculture provides an income to about 80 percent of Nigerien households, and is vulnerable to erratic and declining rainfall and periodic drought. There are strong economic links-especially in the rural sector-with Nigeria, whose 100 million people are a vital market for Niger's products. Much of Niger's male rural population migrates each year to Nigeria to complement income from cropping and livestock activities. 7. Between 1973 and 1993, the share of agriculture in real GDP fell from 60 to 38 percent, while the shares of industry and services increased, on average, from 10 to 18 percent and from 30 to 44 percent, respectively (see Figure 2). These figures, coupled with the trends in real GDP and the high population growth rate, are testimony to the decline in per capita income in rural areas. 20 Figure 2 Sectoral shares of real GDP, 1973-93 0.7 0.6 05 1 . 4 .. . 0.3 0.2 1_0 __ 0.1 0 i 1970 1973 I96 19M 199 1995 Source: National Statistical Office of Niger and World Bank staff estimates. Economic constraints and challenges Vulnerability to external factors 8. The well-being of the people of Niger is dependent upon several external factors-the world uranium market, rainfall, Nigeria's economy, and donor financing. This dependency on external factors brings with it extreme economic vulnerability. A uranium boom brought a period of sustained growth from 1965-80, but a collapse in world uranium prices triggered an economic crisis and fiscatimbalance that has persisted throughout the 1980s and 1990s, despite stabilization measures. Severe droughts in 1973, 1984, and 1992 devastated rural consumption and raised food prices for urban residents. Niger's changing terms of trade relative to Nigeria had a negative impact on the economy during the last decade. Nigeria began a period of continuous devaluation of its currency in 1986, resulting in considerable appreciation of the CFAF against the naira. This undermined and reversed Niger's comparative advantage and trade flows with Nigeria, to the detriment of Niger's domestic industries and rural producers of livestock, cowpeas, and onions. Nigeria closed her border with Niger between 1984 and 1986, which constrained trade and seasonal migration-a major source of income for many poor Nigerien farmers. Poor economic and fiscal management 9. Weak economic management has contributed to Niger's poor economic performance. Stringent labor laws and a regulatory environment biased against the private sector created a climate not conducive to private entrepreneurship. Uranium revenues were invested in large and inefficient projects which did not pay off in the long run. Niger failed to diversify the economy and the revenue base during its boom. The public sector wage bill ballooned as civil service employment and wages grew. When the CFAF appreciated against the naira and imports from Nigeria rose, pervasive smuggling defrauded the treasury of import tax revenues. The country faced an increasing debt service and a serious fiscal crisis. 21 10. The government cut back on public investments, which declined from 25 percent of GDP in 1980 to 5.1 percent of GDP in 1993. The burden of cuts in overall government expenditure fell on capital investments and operating and maintenance expenditures, whereas the public sector wage bill grew by 6.1 percent annually between 1987 and 1990. Social service delivery was badly affected by the expenditure cuts, especially in rural areas, and the resulting degradation in education, health, infrastructure, and agricultural services have worsened living standards, undermined productivity, and eroded long-term development. Foreign debt servicing 11. Because of the weight of outstanding arrears and the debt service burden foreseeable in the near future, the government is expected to seek debt relief from the Paris Club in the context of IMF-supported programs. At the end of 1994, outstanding medium- and long-term external public debt (including arrears) reached CFAF 709 billion (US$1.3 billion), equivalent to about 81 percent of GDP. The debt owed to multilateral creditors represents 67 percent of debt (43 percent is owed to IDA, 5 percent to IMF, and 8 percent to the African Development Bank). The official bilateral share is 33 percent of total debt. External arrears are about 9.6 percent of total debt stock (7.8 percent of GDP). In 1995 scheduled debt service before debt relief is estimated at CFAF 52 billion (5.5 percent of GDP), equivalent to about 36 percent of exports and approximately 74 percent of total budgetary revenue. To ensure continued positive net inflows, continuing debt relief and disbursements of highly concenssional loans or grants will be needed to lighten the difficult tradeoffs in government spending and to permit adequate funding of human resources. Economic reforms 12. In response to the economic crisis in 1983 the government began implementing a stabilization and adjustment program supported by the IMF and World Bank. Some quantitative trade restrictions were eliminated and labor sector rigidities were reduced. Some public monopolies in agricultural trade were abolished, public enterprises divested, and banks liquidated. However, the negative external factors described above and growing opposition to the reforms by organized labor, civil servants, and students undermined the government's commitment and the reforms stalled. Multilateral assistance was suspended and the fiscal situation worsened. An alternative "go-it-alone" adjustment program, the Programme de redressement conomique et financier (PREF), also made little headway. The lack of social consensus on economic reform was manifest during the Conf6rence Nationale in 1991. In the face of continued fiscal imbalance, in September 1993 the new democratically elected government introduced corrective measures, which were insufficient to stop the fall in revenues and the buildup of domestic and external payment arrears, debt, and the current account deficit. 13. The new government took decisive action. To restore competitiveness, it joined with other CFA countries in a 50 percent devaluation of their common currency in January 1994. To reinforce the gains in competitiveness, several accompanying measures were taken: (a) limiting the increase in the wage bill to 10 percent; (b) implementing measures to improve tax collection and combat fraud to raise budgetary revenues to 9 percent of GDP from 7.3 percent in 1993; (c) limiting the deterioration of the deficit to 14.4 percent of GDP; and (d) simplifying external tariffs. These short-term measures were reinforced through actions to bring a rapid resumption of growth 22 and a more solid basis for sustained growth by: (a) liquidating the arrears that burdened merchants and producers; (b) rekindling growth through a 40 percent real increase in investment expenditures and improving the productivity of the civil service by increasing materials and supplies by 5 percent in real terms; (c) adopting an investment program emphasizing the productive sectors; (d) enhancing efficiency of public enterprises by targeted external audits and eliminating cross-debts; and (e) stepping up civil service reform, notably the redeployment of education and health personnel. The IMF and World Bank strongly endorsed these measures and provided additional financing to facilitate adjustment efforts. Other members of the donor community provided substantial debt relief and financing on highly concessional terms. 14. Progress in these reform measures was satisfactory, and good rains, the devaluation, and trade liberalization boosted exports and real GDP growth reached 4 percent (1.4 percent in 1993). The new government that took office in early 1995 began to implement the needed economic reforms. It established a dialogue with the labor union and made personnel changes in key fiscal agencies. It revised the budget for 1995, seeking to raise revenue and reduce the share of revenue devoted to wages to below 70 percent, compared with 100 percent in 1994. The new government also aimed to reduce the fiscal deficit by 4 percent of GDP to 10.5 percent of GDP, reduce the external current account deficit, and bring inflation down to 7.5 percent. These targets will largely be met despite disappointing rains. Government is also making progress implementing plans to expand education, health, and the family planning program. Impact of macroeconomic trends and policies on poverty 15. The downward trend in per capita income since the end of the uranium boom has exacerbated poverty. Policy responses to the economic crisis may have actually worsened inequality and poverty. The pattern of cuts in government expenditures in the face of the fiscal crisis was particularly disadvantageous to the poor. Incomes of the politically vocal and relatively better off, such as civil servants and students, were shielded from the crisis. Until recently, government expenditures on these groups were not cut in the face of falls in government revenue. Real public sector wages increased 60 percent between 1984 and 1993-a period during which real per capita GDP declined. Civil servants argue that cuts in public sector salary payments would affect the livelihood of the poor because public employees represent a safety net for extended families and a source of income for beggars. If so, the question becomes whether this private redistributive mechanism is more effective than government programs and whether the benefits outweigh the negative impact of the fiscal imbalance. 16. While the public wage bill was protected, recurrent expenditures (and investments) for health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure were cut, undermining service delivery. In Niger as elsewhere, these services flow disproportionately to the non-poor, especially in urban areas. The poor rarely have access to alternative services and, being concentrated in rural areas, are the hardest hit by such cuts. Among the expenditures that fell were the counterpart funds for programs intended to cushion the effects of the devaluation on vulnerable groups. These programs had been backed by donor financing and, because the external funds could not be used, the loss to the poor was intensified. 23 Figure 3 Consumer price index, 1988-95 (1990 = 100) 17. Exchange rate policy has had an important 160. impact on economic activity and thus on living conditions 140. and poverty. The fixed parity L20. of the CFAF and the French 0. . .... ... . franc allowed inflation to be contained over an extended period (Figure 3). However, it 40.0 also neutralized an essential 40.0 tool for responding to 20.0 declining competitiveness, 0.0 19 namely exchange rate 9. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 19% 195 adjustment. As a result, the overvaluation of the CFAF, Source: Recent Economic Development, IMF 1995 and World Bank estimates. especially after 1985, had to be compensated by adjustments in wages, prices, and internal efficiency gains. For informal sector activities, these adjustments were largely made and were reflected in lower returns in a range of activities, almost certainly increasing poverty. In the formal sectors, wage and price adjustment was more difficult and hence much of the formal sector experienced acute economic difficulties and failed to generate employment or other opportunities. With the devaluation in 1994, some lost competitiveness was regained and a modest but persistent upturn in activity has been achieved, especially in livestock and crops such as niebe, onions, peppers, and tomatoes which supplement the incomes of poor households. Inflation resulting from the devaluation hurt many households, but mostly on a transitional basis. The increase in the prices of imported drugs was particularly difficult for poor households. For Government, some items of tax revenue responded positively to the devaluation while some expenditure items, such as external debt service, increased. Policies since devaluation have helped contain inflation, while debt reduction activities and accelerated disbursement of adjustment loans have tempered the negative impact on public finances. Future challenges and prospects: economic policy, poverty, and growth 18. The government is now poised to move forward with economic and other reforms designed to be the basis for future sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. There is a new sensitivity to the impact of economic and other policies on the poor and a willingness to design policies that will address the needs of the poor. However, the economic and social situation is a heavy load to move forward under. Poverty is pervasive and the unsatisfied needs for basic education, health care, nutritional improvements and family planning services are immense. The political situation remains tense, with a tenuous political compromise within government with the main union and with the Tuareg movements. 19. The short-term macroeconomic challenges are to: (a) increase government revenue through better tax administration and reduced fraud; (b) control and reduce the civil service wage bill; and (c) redirect expenditures toward primary education, health, and infrastructure. In the medium term and beyond, growth and poverty reduction will depend on reforms that foster broad- based growth across sectors, improve primary education and health services, and put in place well- targeted social safety nets. Proactive policies to enhance rural incomes, such as financing rural credit, irrigation, and infrastructure, are crucial. The following section describes the extent and nature of poverty to help government formulate a poverty reduction action plan. 24 II. Talaka: Poor people in Niger The nature and extent ofpoverty in Niger are analyzed A participatory poverty assessment (PPA) presents poverty as perceived by the poor. Income and expenditure data are used to establish urban and rural poverty lines defining the poor, the very poor, and the non-poor and their characteristics. Poverty is strongly correlated with low education and capital assets, malnutrition and illness, low agricultural production, food and income insecurity, and high dependency ratios. Poor households rely heavily on family, friends, and better- off community members to help them through difficult periods. Evidence suggests that poverty is growing in Niger--as many as two-thirds of people are poor, ofwhom more than halfare extremely poor. 20. There are many ways to define poverty. Some count the number or proportion of the population with income and expenditures below an absolute level or relative to the country average. Others define poverty as the inability to fulfill minimum basic needs such as food, health, and education. Poverty might be defined as the lack of opportunity to participate in social and economic life; or in terms of self-perception. This chapter uses a PPA and a statistically derived moneymetric poverty profile to gain two complementary perspectives-one qualitative and subjective, and the other quantitative and objective. The poor's perception of poverty in Niger 21. Listening to the poor-the talaka as they are known in Niger-is a crucial first step to understanding poverty. Their perceptions illuminate the most pressing problems they face, their attempts to cope, and the family and community resources, networks, rights, and obligations upon which they can draw. This information ought to be part of policy formulation. Annex I describes the methodology used in the PPA and the locations and groups surveyed. There are always questions about the representativeness of relatively small-scale qualitative surveys. In Niger, the PPA used on-purpose sampling, which provides as fair a representation as possible. The voices of Niger paint a vivid and stark picture of poverty. Urban areas 22. FOR URBAN PEOPLE, POVERTY IS HUNGER. A person who cannot eat when hungry is poor-this means not being able to prepare a meal every day, eating only what neighbors donate; and eating what one has begged for. A poor person cannot nourish his or her children who must beg for their own food and are often sent to live with relatives. The meals the poor eat lack meat and fish and have little variety, being mostly sorghum, yams, gari (manioc flour), broken rice with "poor" sauce-that is, no meat, just some aroma or flavor from baobab or sorrel leaves. The cost of potable water and wood also affects the quantity and quality of meals. 23. OWNERSHIP OF GOODS IS A FORM OF SAFETY NET. The ownership of goods that can be sold in the event of a crisis-sickness or a funeral, marriage, or other ceremony which requires expensive celebrations-is a major criterion of household economic security. Animals are the most widely used form of savings. Often the animal stock only includes one or two sheep or goats kept at home by the women. Sometimes animals are kept in the rural village of origin in the care of 25 relatives or a shepherd. Money is not considered a sensible way to hold assets. It is usually quickly invested in buying animals, and, for those who own land, by building rooms onto the house. Many say that if they had money they would start a business. 24. THE VALUE OF OWNING A HOME. In urban areas squatters occupy more or less neglected areas where they have built a hut or shelter, usually out of straw. Straw shelters bum down easily, often destroying the household goods. The poor are forced to move home frequently. Rent is relatively expensive, so owning a house or land is an important goal which is beyond the reach of most. Among those interviewed, only those with salaried employment in the public or private sector could afford to buy land or build a house. Those with title to land or a house, however meager, have security; need not pay rent; can build permanent structures in materials such as banco-dry mud-which are fire-resistant, and can generate income by constructing and then renting out extra rooms. Given the volatility of a household's economy, renting rooms built during wealthy periods can help households during difficult periods. 25. RELATIVES AS A SOCIAL SAFETY NET. Most of those interviewed categorize themselves as either being among the rich who give help to others, finding them jobs or giving credit, or the poor who receive help. A very poor person does not have relatives to help, cannot return a service or a good someone has offered, and must beg for help. He or she lives at the margin of the exchange network. The solidarity network is important: neighbors share their meals and old clothes, and take on the responsibility of paying for children's education. Needing help or having to ask for help is perceived as lowering one's social status-it really means being poor. 26. Relationships with those living in rural areas are important to urban households, and most of those interviewed had kept ties with their village of origin. This usually entails an informal exchange of visits and gifts, but can also be a more formal exchange. Urban household members go and work in the family fields during the rainy season, send money to employ unskilled laborers, or may leave children in the village to help. In return, they expect a portion of the harvest, which is an important contribution to household food and income. These links are reciprocal, and during the dry season villagers may arrive at the home of city relatives looking for work and food. 27. BEING EMPLOYED IS WHAT MATTERS. "A happy man is an employed man." Salaried work allows people to manage expenses, save, and invest, and provides money to start economic activities (see Box 1 for some examples of remuneration). "Now I have the ability to manage my expenses and can put an end to risky planning," claims an old man who works as a gardener and caretaker at the University of Niamey. Earning a salary can help get a loan from the bank to build a house or buy tools-a shovel or wheelbarrow-to maintain a small vegetable garden. Those with jobs are regarded as rich and are counted upon to be generous and to share, take children under their care, and help the elderly. Often, salaried men marry a second wife, which increases the size of the family and adds many young children. But work, of course, can end: many of those interviewed are former salaried employees, retired, retrenched, or laid off when a business went bankrupt or a project ended. Salaried employees invest in goods and relationships that provide security in the event the salary income stops. The loss of a man's job may decrease other household income: "When my husband lost his job, I had to stop my business because the capital had to be used for food." Children are pulled out of school. Prescription medicines can only be bought if a loan can be secured. The number of meals decreases and food is less varied: 'When I worked, we ate more meat. It has been two months since we ate meat." 26 28. Commercial activity is risky. Box 1 Examples of remuneration in urban areas Bankruptcies occur and capital is bard to Plumbermxlcome by to start up again. Many men P1Msnwrer: aii CFAF 500 ery tOd abandon commercial activity, while Mason wrker: CFAF 750 a day Washer in a gas station: CFAF 500 a daywomen often recycle themselves back Cook/restaurant helper: CFAF 5,000-10,000 a month into the market even if this entails a Apprentice driver: CFAF 3,000-3,500 a month smaller scale activity and less income. Millet grinder: CFAF 100-150 a day Among the poor urban households Seller of fresh water and ice: CFAF 1,500 a month interviewed, business was limited to petty Maid: CFAF 2,500-10,000 a month Maid CFA 2,00-1,00 a mnthtrade, which brings in little money and so Note: US$I = +/- CFAF 500. is primarily a female activity.' The most Source: PPA 1994. common business women undertake is the sale of cooked food, especially la boule, a mixture of millet flour and curdled milk. A few women had moved to the Benin border or into villages along the river to sell cloth or fresh fish. The women not able to engage in small business activities grind millet for those who are selling it or work as maids. 29. The men interviewed who have lost their jobs or whose businesses have gone bankrupt admit that their wives now take care of the family. The men devote themselves to agriculture or seek temporary work as unskilled laborers, caretakers, mechanics/repairmen, or gardeners, depending on their skills. They also engage in crafts, such as working with iron or shoemaking. These jobs do not contribute enough for a household's daily survival. Some men prefer not to go home for meals to avoid eating the children's food and being embarrassed by not bringing food home from the street vendors. 30. BEGGING. The poor beg when resources run out. Traditionally beggars are too old, ill, or handicapped to work, have no relatives, and move from village to village to survive. Recently, the number of beggars has increased in Niamey, and "traditional" beggars have been joined by large numbers of younger, able-bodied poor people. Beggars unite, form associations, and create tonines, which can provide start-up capital for small businesses. Children beg with their parents or spend the day unsupervised in the street. The family eats at home only when a mother prepares food she has received. Beggars earn from CFAF 100 to 5 00 a day and depend heavily on money received from salaried employees, mostly civil servants, making more on work days than weekends, more the day after pay day, and less at the end of the month. 31. CREDrr. Those interviewed in the urban areas ask for loans from relatives or others to pay for a medical prescription or a ceremony, or ask shopkeepers to give them "little needs of everyday" such as soap or cola for the men. Women usually are afraid to get into debt and only take credit on merchandise that they can sell or materials for their business activities. "We women ask fbr credit only of those who won't tell," says a woman from Kourategui. "We ask for credit from friends and relatives, sometimes pawning a piece of jewelry or something precious," say a group of women in Tourakou. Sometimes they are obliged to sell on credit to men who do not always pay them back. Formal credit from a bank was taken by only two people interviewed in the 1. The only de business person among thoe interviewed was a young emigrant from the countyuide who sent his wife back aterhe wasmred a aeller ofbutanegas. Nowheselleg in themarket:"Itisimply habitethars e n thecity"(theYantala- Tchiana quarter). 2. tontines, h n mrbe of a group make periodic monetay contributions and each member has a turn at receiving all the 27 city, both formerly salaried employees, one of whom used it to buy land and build a house, the other to increase his garden's productivity. Rural areas 32. ACCESS TO LAND IS A MAJOR CONSTRAINT. Access to land is governed by the social and ethnic structure of the village. Because of the dearth of fertile land in Niger, competition exists among groups to exploit natural resources. Among the groups most affected are the nomadic herders who, having lost their cattle, are forced into farming, often sharing the use of fields in exchange for part of the harvest, which is meager during low rainfall periods. Since the land does not belong to them, they lack motivation to increase its productivity or to undertake improvements that do not yield immediate benefits. The scarcity of land leads to overuse: "We cannot let the land lie fallow when many people don't have any land at all." 33. LES BRAS VALIDES (STRONG ARMS). Having many adults capable of working the fields and in other productive activities is seen as a characteristic of wealth, while having many small children and/or elderly relatives is a characteristic of impoverishment. Households exchange children: households with many young children send some to relatives who have more "capable" arms, and older children are sent to help families who do not have enough labor, particularly older relatives. Exchanges between relatives in the city and the village are common. 34. DIVERSIFICATION OF SOURCES OF INCOME. Diversification of income sources is a necessary strategy because of the climatic risks which threaten the rainfed production of rural Niger. The main options are livestock, small businesses, counter-season farming, or gardening. These possibilities are not always available to the poor. Their survival strategies are to work for others or to migrate (see Box 2). Box 2 Views on migration by women of the Zarma Ganda village We come from the Zarma Ganda village in the Ouallam region and are here for the same reason: famine has ravaged our village. We did not harvest a single grain last year. The millet was just in the ear formation stage when the rains stopped. We didn't have anything to eat when we left six months ago: we broke the termitaries to empty out all of the grain and have eaten most of the consumable shrubs. All the "capable arms" have left the village (notably the men): there were four men left in the village: the chief of the village, a peul, and two elderly men. We came to Niamey with our children to find food and our husbands. Those who stayed behind in the village, who did not migrate because they didn't have money for the trip-our cousins, our brothers-what has happened to them? We live in Niamey with this weight, this constant anxiety. But Niamey has changed over the last two years. Today there is no work, no dry food (to send back to the village), no old clothes. People here don't even have enough for themselves. To find food, we pick up grains of millet near the sluice-gates (we find less and less; the women who sift the millet take great care) and near the grain markets. Our daughters work as maids in homes from where they bring their midday and evening meals. Their salary rarely exceeds CFAF 3,000 a month. With this, we scramble to make a little business of cooked dishes; we save a bit for the family but most is sold. The earnings buy water, soap, and a few condiments. By the end of the month, the salary has barely made ends meet. 28 Box 2 Views on migration by women of the Zarma Ganda village (continued) Our problem now is how to return to the village. The rainy season is coming and we would like to return to work our land. But we can't because of transportation costs-we cannot save enough money. Even when we fall sick, only God can cure us. Health clinics don't have medicine to cure us. Sometimes we are forced to buy pharmaceutical products through peddlers. Before we ground millet and were given la boule, a bit of bran, a bit of money. Today the mills have replaced us. We have been coming to Niamey for nearly ten years. We used to come looking for work during the dry season; the money saved improved our life in the village. We brought back dry dishes of food, bran, clothes found here and there. Today, we come to Niamey to survive. It used to be, in the village, that if we produced or not, there was still food to eat-aid from "food-for-work." This system doesn't exist any more, having not received anything for nearly five years. The last time, however, it was in insufficient quantities-one bag for ten people. We used to receive fifteen to thirty bags per family, depending on the size of the family. Our boys migrate to find money to pay taxes and clothes for the family and to prepare for their marriages. Migration of the young procures hard cash which permits us to buy things. Merchants bring us their millet, maize, and their second-hand goods. Today, these merchants cannot go to the villages because of the increased price of transportation. The products are out of reach for the villagers to buy who don't even have food. The families have one solution: leave the village. Source: PPA 1994. 35. WORK FOR OTHERS. Those interviewed agree that being poor means being obliged to work for others, whereas being rich means hiring others. Physical labor (la force des bras) may be all that remains for the poor and the labor of the entire family needs to be used. Having to work other people's fields is tied to indebtedness. Farmers, particularly households of women with small children, who cultivate less land because they lack either land access or labor are more likely to consume all of their production or sell it early, when the prices are lowest, during the harvest season, to meet expenses, and then are forced to buy millet on credit later. To buy millet on credit or to repay loans, poor people work in the fields of the wealthy, neglecting their own fields which in turn become less productive, perpetuating a vicious circle of deepening poverty. 36. Most rural households are vulnerable, even the richer "surplus" farmers who are able to save and sell part of their harvest when prices rise (see Box 3). Crops are perishable and each year there is the risk of large storage losses if traditional conservation techniques fail. Impoverishment of the "rich" reduces the work available for the poor and wage rates. The rate and form of payment-in kind, cash, or credit-for each task varies according to the employer's cash reserves and situation. 37. Aside from agriculture, the rural poor engage in activities which contribute to household survival. Men and children look for wood and straw to sell, gather stones for construction, help others construct or repair their huts, make pastures for other people's cattle, and make small crafts, such as mats. Women grind millet, prepare meals, gather water and wood for wealthier women, and sell ground millet to make la boule. The work is paid in kind with millet or meals. 29 Box 3 Levels of poverty in rural areas The PPA gives examples of the levels of welfare from the richest to the poorest households: * Sellers of millet or cattle, shopkeepers, large farmers, owners of means of production (hilaire, ploughs, fertilizer), mill owners, male migrants. * Big families of medium-sized farmers, grazing cattle but owning no means of production. They send their children to work for others. * Small farmers who rent land and own no cattle. The family does not have enough "capable arms," and all family members migrate seasonally to work for others. * Very poor people with no family, clothes, or plots of land. They work for others or beg. One example is taken from a Mafari (Tahoua) village where, from 163 households, the following profile emerges: * Nine are"rich" households of which four are shopkeepers, three sellers of millet, two sellers of cattle (these include the chief and the "marabouts"). * Sixty are big families who participate in the grain bank. * Eighty-four are very vulnerable households who have to ask for help from time to time. * Ten are very poor households whose heads have migrated and not returned or returned with nothing, or are sick, or which are headed by widows or women whose husbands have left. Source: PPA 1994. 38. THREE FORMS OF HELP. In three survey zones-the Kouratagui and Foulani Kouara District, the Tourakou and Boukoki II District, and the Yantala-Tchiana District-projects are under way which include labor-intensive soil conservation activities where workers receive food for work. One objective of these projects was to reduce the rural exodus by offering men local employment. Ultimately they failed in this and have become a type of social security for women and children who remain in rural areas. The traditional solidarity-zakka-is a helpful redistributive mechanism that benefits the poor. The cereal banks advance cash to farmers and enable them to store part of their crop for sale later in the year when prices are higher. 39. MIGRATION. Migration is widespread: it is a survival strategy for individuals and households in difficulty, a relief mechanism for households and communities, and a possibility of enrichment-but also of impoverishment (see Box 4). Both rich and poor people migrate: the rich leave with money to start a business; the poor migrate to look for food and work within Niger or to a neighboring country (usually Nigeria), often returning to the village during the period of cultivation. Poor migrants seek employment in unskilled jobs such as making small crafts or selling water and tea. Sometimes they go back to their village with a few "gifts"-watches or radios-that they sell to be able to leave again. Some "come back with only an illness," AIDS or venereal disease. Migration of an entire family is a sign of great distress. These migrants attach themselves to urban relatives and increase the masses of unemployed. 40. It is difficult to assess the importance of remittances. An estimate for one small area in Mafari (Tahoua) was that 65 percent of the men had migrated, but that remittances contributed 3. Zakka is charity that a good Muslim gives to the poor. A percentage of a harvest--usually 10 percent-is collected from everyone and then split among the most deprived households, according to size of household. 30 Box 4 Migrants who sell la boule in the Yantala District We are from the Fillingue region and Matankari Doutchi. The first among us who came to Niamey have been here for more than twenty years-the last having arrived eight years ago. We came looking for food with our spouses after a bad harvest season. One woman's husband had died and left her with seven children. No one could take care of them in her village so she too decided to move to Niamey, where the chances of making some sort of living are greater. We live in straw huts which we built ourselves. We prepare la boule from millet. Our expenses are CFAF 800 for four servings of millet, 1,000 for milk, 200 for wood, 450 for husking or shelling, 180 for red (hot) peppers, and 50 for water, totalling CFAF 2,680. In selling la boule we pay a market tax of CFAF 50 a day. Women help us grind the millet and boil la boule, for which we give them CFAF 100 a day. At the end of the process, we can count on about CFAF 2,000 worth of boule to sell, which is often the reason we lose out in the end. The devaluation has affected our activities because the millet, milk, and milling have all gone up in price, which in turn has reduced our marginal earnings with which we need to survive. Some clients drink la boule and refuse to pay. We have presented a notice to one of our clients who owes us CFAF 13,000. We also risk slow sales, which forces us to bring la boule home and give it away for free. The generosity of civil servants' wives, to whom we give unsold boule for free and who in turn give us presents which far surpass what we would earn in sales makes, up for the losses in our business. Source: PPA 1994. only 14 percent of household cash income (Swift and Bonfiglioli 1982). Young men stay away for two, three, or four years and people say that they hope to return with about CFAF 100,000. There were no comments on how many succeed. Remittances are used for taxes and marriage dowries, and are invested in cattle and luxury goods. One father sent his child to get money to go to Mecca and told him not to return without at least CFAF 100,000 (US$345 in 1993). 41. ASSETS AND DEBT. Farmers who don't own cattle or grain stocks are vulnerable because in a crisis-illness or an unexpected funeral for a family member-they are obliged to go into debt by mortgaging part of their fields. In the event of a bad year and/or having to buy millet, they have to go into debt against the next year's harvest. If the next year's production is not good or they confront new large expenses, they will not be able to recover their fields and risk losing even more. Millet taken on credit between harvests is a major cause of rural indebtedness. Interest rates depend on the relationship between the creditor and the debtor but repayments are always a burden for a small farmer, and, in a bad harvest year, can be virtually impossible. 42. CREDIT PROGRAMS. Rural credit has become incrasingly available, especially for women to use to improve pasture land, to feed small animal herds and to undertake other small- scale economic activities. Debt repayment rates are higher for women than men. Women want men to benefit from credit too because when a woman's activity becomes profitable, the men tend to usurp their revenue: "We want our husbands to be rich because if they are, we too become rich; but if they are poor, they take whatever profit we have managed to make." 43. LES TONTINES (SAVINGS CLUBS). A widespread form of credit-savings is the tontine, typically created by women who contribute weekly amounts and take turns in receiving the pool. A tontine set up by well-to-do women, even in villages, can reach CFAF 1,000 a week (USS3.45 in 31 1993); a poorer group might manage CFAF 200 a week (US$0.70). The poorest women are not able to unite in this manner. Revenue from the tontines is used to pay for marriages, ceremonies, clothes, or animals or to meet any non-food expenses. Conclusion 44. Descriptions of poverty by urban and rural people differ in various respects. However, for both groups the primary problems of the poor are malnutrition and food insecurity, and the extended family network is considered the most efficient safety net. Complex reciprocal family relationships provide solidarity between urban and rural areas, between households, between generations, and between groups with different levels of welfare. They help cope with crises, diffuse wealth and poverty, and put a heavy burden on those who are recognized as givers. These mechanisms have to be taken into consideration in any poverty alleviation strategy. Traditional dependency on agriculture and livestock for survival shapes the Nigerien mind, and wealth is still seen as a function of family size-the number of bras valides. This mindset makes it difficult to reduce fertility and population growth. A traditional response to poverty and crisis is to migrate- to Benin, Cte d'Ivoire, Niamey or other cities in Niger, and Nigeria. Migration may only provide less than ideal options, but it is a better alternative than staying in rural areas. This reaction is deeply rooted in the Sahelian culture. Income and expenditure poverty profile 45. Finding reliable quantitative data is a major constraint to undertaking effective analysis on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa-the quality, detail, representativeness, and consistency among sources can be problematic. Niger has relatively good data from several recent nationwide household surveys: a 1988 Population Census, a 1992 Demographic and Health Survey, and a Household Budget and Consumption Survey (1989 for urban areas, 1993 for rural areas). There are also several recent small-sample household surveys. An Economic and Social Survey was conducted in April 1994 after the CFAF devaluation and the data are now being analyzed in Niger, will soon become available. 46. The main data source for the income and expenditure poverty profile is the Niger Household Budget and Consumption Survey (Enqu9te sur le budget et la consommation des mdnages au Niger (ENBC)), carried out by the Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilitd nationale (DSCN) with support from UNDP and other donors. It was conducted in two phases using the same concepts, definitions, and methodology (World Bank 1994i): 1,775 urban households (in Niamey and in other chefs lieux de ddpartement and d'arrondissement) were surveyed from March 1989 to March 1990, and 2,024 rural households were surveyed from November 1992 to November 1993. 47. Economic trends make it likely that the status of the urban population worsened during the interval between the two phases, possibly more than that of rural people. However, the difference in urban and rural consumption and income patterns is so large that there would certainly have been a substantial differential even if the data had all been collected at the same time. To present data for the entire country, urban and rural data files were merged after the urban survey results had been extrapolated from September 1989 to May 1993 (median months of the surveys) taking into account the level of inflation (the CPI for Niamey ranged from 100.2 to 93.8 32 (see Figure 3)) and the urban population growth rate including migration, while holding constant the pattern and level of urban household consumption. 48. The following survey characteristics should be kept in mind when interpreting the data: * The two phases of the ENBC were carried out during periods of average agroclimatic conditions, so the results represent a "normal" socioeconomic situation in Niger. During this period, however, Niger was undergoing intense social and political upheaval. * The nomadic population and the agropastoral zones of Zinder, Maradi, and Diffa were not surveyed and are, therefore, not represented in the ENBC results. There were 276,000 nomads at the time of the 1988 Population Census-3.8 percent of the total population. * Consumption data were collected at the household level and not at the individual level; this survey, therefore, does not report on intrahousehold allocation. * Feedback from international and national staff involved in the survey suggest that the field operations were carried out satisfactorily. 49. A variable was computed to create a proxy for household consumption and expenditure which aggregated the following: a) total monetary annual expenditure, b) estimated home food consumption, c) imputed rent for owners, and d) estimated food gifts received and consumed within the household. This variable is referred to as income and is the main variable used to rank households and individuals. In 1992 the total population of Niger was estimated at 8,300,000, of which the rural population was 83.4 percent, Niamey 5.9 percent, and other cities 10.7 percent (the urban areas add up to 16.6 percent). Since the rural population are predominantly poor, they will be the primary target of the policy recommendations in this report. Income levels and distnbution 50. Before choosing a poverty line, it is useful to analyze the income distribution for the entire population. Figure 4 shows the distribution of the population by income class and Annex 3 lists the distributions by income decile of the main variables collected. The 1993 average annual income as defined above was CFAF 57,500 (US$198) per person, which is comparable to the per capita final household consumption from the 1992 National Accounts of CFAF 65,650. These levels of income are low, even for the Sahel: for instance, average income in Mali in 1989 was CFAF 134,945 (median-CFAF 93,800), based on data from the same type of survey and using comparable definitions. The degree of inequality is the same in both countries with a Gini coefficient of 0.36. 51. The income distribution within Niger is predictable-Niamey is better off than the other cities, which are better off than the rural areas (see Table 1). This is true for most household Table 1 Income and Gini coefficient by area, 1993 Other Total Total Indicators Niamey cities urban Rural Niger Average annual income per person in CFAF 113,341 88,946 97,683 49,508 57,503 Median annual income per person in CFAF 84,723 66,255 71,445 41,194 44,310 Gini coefficient 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.31 0.36 Population 493,000 884,000 1,377,000 6,922,000 8,299,000 Percentage 5.94 10.65 16.60 83.40 100.00 Source: ENBC 1993. 33 socioeconomic indicators with the exception of food intake and nutrition. Urban/rural differences are stark, with average urban incomes being double rural incomes: CFAF 113,300 for Niamey, CFAF 97,600 for other cities, and CFAF 49,500 for rural areas. The country median income, below which half the population falls, is CFAF 44,300 (US$153). The urban median income is CFAF 71,400, and the rural median income is CFAF 41,200. The income distribution is more unequal in urban areas where there is a Gini coefficient of 0.39 than in the rural areas where it is 0.31 (see Figure 4 and Figure 5). Figure 4 Income distribution, 1993 800,000 Rural extreme poverty line Rural Population 700,000 R m . Urban Population 600,000 - 500,000- '.- Urban extreme povery line and .9 400,000 rural poverty line 300,000 Urban median income E 200,000 100,000 ln 0 C; 0 2 2 C) 0 2 Cr C Income category CFAF per capita per year Source: ENBC 1993. 34 Figure 5 Cumulative income distribution, 1993 100 90 / 80 - - -- - - Urban . 70 I60- 50 40 * 30. 20 10 - - 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Cumuladve populadon (%) Source: ENBC 1993. Poverty lines 52. The choice of a poverty line depends on its intended use and on the information and data available. In November 1994, DCSN published a Niger poverty profile which set the poverty line for urban areas (UPL) at CFAF 75,000. This followed the lowest poverty line (US$275) used in the World Development Report 1990, using an exchange rate of CFAF 273 per US$1. DCSN established the rural poverty lines (RPL) at two-thirds of this urban line or CFAF 50,000, taking into account price disparities between the two areas (including caloric unit value differences for food, and other differences). The extreme poverty lines are fixed at approximately two-thirds of each poverty line-CFAF 50,000 for the urban extreme poverty line (UEPL), and CFAF 35,000 for the rural extreme poverty line (REPL). The selection of these poverty lines is somewhat arbitrary and it may be argued that they are too low. The Niger poverty line is lower than the Mali poverty line, which was set at CFAF 89,170 or US$289 in 1989, making the Niger poverty line in 1989 79 percent of Mali's poverty line. Had the Mali level been used, more people in Niger would be counted as poor. Furthermore, as paragraphs 70 to 72 will suggest, many of those who fall above the poverty lines for Niger did not appear to be able to satisfy their basic food needs in the survey years, when rainfall was average. This conflicts with a basic needs approach to defining poverty. Figure 4 compares the poverty lines with mean and median incomes: the UPL is 77 percent of the average urban income, and 103 percent of the median. The RPL coincides with rural average income, and is 120 percent of the median. Incidence ofpoverty 53. According to the poverty lines, 63 percent of the Niger population (5.3 million people) are poor, which includes 34 percent (2.8 million) who are extremely poor (see Table 2 and Table 3). Because of their population weighting, rural areas contribute 86 percent to total poverty. Of the rural population, 66 percent are poor and 36 percent are extremely poor. In urban areas 52 percent are poor and 26 percent are extremely poor. Niamey has the lowest proportion of poor-42 percent-which constitutes about 4 percent of all poor. The three indicators-incidence (Po),, depth (PI), and severity (P2}-follow the same urban/rural pattern, with all being higher in rural than in 35 Table 2 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by locality Contribution Population Poverty indices to national Locality share (%) P0 P1 P2 poverty (Po) Number of poor Urban areas 16.60 0.52 0.181 0.084 13.65 714,000 Niamey 5.94 0.42 0.134 0.060 3.95 207,000 Other urban 10.65 0.58 0.207 0.098 9.70 507,000 Rural 83.40 0.66 0.225 0.104 86.35 4,514,000 Niger 100.00 0-63 0.217 0.101 100.00 5,228,000 Source: ENBC 1993. Table 3 Poverty indices and contribution to extreme poverty by locality Contribution to Population Poverty indices national extreme Number of Locality share % Po P, P2 poverty (Po) extremely poor Urban areas 16.60 0.26 0.073 0.029 12.87 363,000 Niamey 5.94 0.18 0.051 0.019 3.20 90,000 Other urban 10.65 0.31 0.085 0.034 9.67 273,000 Rural 83.40 0.36 0.100 0.041 87.13 2,459,000 Niger 100.00 0.34 0.095 0.039 100.00 2,822,000 Source: ENBC 1993. urban areas.4 Because most of the poor live in rural areas, a poverty reduction strategy should focus on raising rural incomes and improving rural living standards. Poverty by district 54. Table 4, Map 1, Map 2, and Map 3 show the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty across districts: Tillaberi has the highest incidence of poverty (80 percent) followed closely by Dosso (76 percent) and Maradi (65 percent}--the only three districts above the national average (63 percent). Two-thirds of Niger's poor live in these three districts, which contain 53 percent of the population. Analysis of extreme poverty shows that Tillaberi has the highest depth and severity of poverty (PI and P2), and also contributes the most to overall poverty. Poverty in the rural part of the Tillaberi district is the most severe: the incidence of extreme poverty is 54 percent, one-third of all those classified as extreme poor in rural Niger. Poverty alleviation efforts must give Tillaberi district special attention. More in-depth analysis is needed to understand why Tillaberi is so stricken, given the district's proximity to Niamey, the presence of the Niger river, and the road to Burkina Faso, all of which should be advantageous. 4. The simplest measure of the incidence of poverty is the proportion of individuals below the poverty line. This head-count index (Po) is the number of individuals below the line divided by the total population. The depth of poverty (PI) is a measure of how far below the poverty line the poorest fall. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke Index (P2) measures the degree of inequality among those below the poverty line. 36 Table 4 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by district Poverty indices Contribution to Population Extrme District share (%6) Po P P2 Poverty poverty Agadez 2.22 0.44 0.156 0.076 1.53 1.54 Diffa 2.33 0.49 0.123 0.049 1.79 1.29 Dosso 14.52 0.76 0.262 0.115 17.32 18.55 Maradi 19.62 0.65 0.220 0.096 20.00 22.25 Tillaberi 18.71 0.80 0.346 0.190 23.72 29.38 Tahoua 17.22 0.51 0.143 0.058 13.76 9.95 Zinder 19.43 0.59 0.168 0.068 17.92 13.83 Niamey - 5.94 0.42 0.134 0.060 3.95 3.20 Niger 100.00 0.63 0.217 0.101 100.00 100.00 Source: ENBC 1993. Map 1 Poor as a percentage of rural population NIGER (rural population) The dcomaians used mnd d basoeWim shown dan th map do ot rpty. an &h put of de Ward Bar* Group. myjudaut on t Jega gam of 10 to any taitory or ay emian esi o epane of suct boundanea E]10.5% 55 to '70%. . . . . . . 70 to 15% Map featues O D,sids (dputaencat) TAHOUA 9 N-,,oWu Cap!W UJEL S Distrid Cqtals MARADI A 37 Map 2 Extreme poor as a percentage of rural population NIGER (rural population) 71a diminminam used ad tbe bouleicdx an t his mop do not bnWly on the put of the Warld Bak upu my jug et n the lepl status of a twmtary omy idosimaia o accepuce of such bmlxries El25 to 40% 40 to 55% U551*70% 70 to a5% E3 Lake Chad Ej Ehks (mdVatwtCAE I Natiol Cpitat ' Douaict Capitals lealE NERDIF Map 3 Extreme poor as a percentage of poor population NIGER (rural population) The d miiasim un seed a te bomdmas hon, a ths m d mt roply, a ue paf t of t World Bak Group, muyju n on tbesc status of E 10 to 25% my Writory or my or acceptanc of udx bouries 5 25 to 40% 40 to 53% 55 to 70% 70 to as% Map seaias E3 Lake Cbsd 9 Nedomli Caphtal. ... ... .. * Daicm Caphtalsaarrn e ot DIPPA Poverty and household size 55. The last population census estimated the average household size to be 6.4 persons (6.0 in urban areas, 6.4 in rural areas), whereas the ENBC, using a broader definition of the household, estimates average household size to be 7.1 persons, with rural households being only marginally larger than urban ones (7.14 compared to 7.03). Table 5 shows that the incidence, depth and 38 severity of poverty all increase monotonically with household size: of households with one to three persons, 27 percent are poor, while of households with thirteen or more persons, 75 percent are poor. In spite of this, the demand for children remains extremely high in Niger and shows no sign of decreasing. Table 5 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by household size Population Poverty indices Contribution to Household size share (/o) Po P1 P2 national poverty(P4) 1-3 persons 5.29 0.270 0.076 0.033 2.23 4-6 persons 25.81 0.510 0.157 0.070 20.75 7-9 persons 30.00 0.670 0.228 0.104 31.68 10-12 persons 17.58 0.720 0.253 0.119 19.98 13 & + persons 21.33 0.750 0.282 0.135 25.36 Niger 100.00 0.630 0.217 0.101 100.00 Source: ENBC 1993. Poverty and gender 56. Traditionally, divorced and widowed women return to their father's family or live under the guardianship of another male relative, so only 8 percent of heads of households in Niger are female. These households account for 4.7 percent of the population (see Table 6). Among urban households, gender of household head is not related to poverty, but rural households headed by women are poorer than those with a male head, when other relevant factors are constant.' Table 6 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by sex of household head Head of Household Population Poverty indices Contribution to household share (A) share (A) PO P P2 national poverty(Po) Male 91.9 95.2 0.64 0.219 0.101 95.8 Female 8.1 4.7 0.55 0.189 0.087 4.1 Niger 100.0 100.0 0.63 0.217 0.101 100.0 Source: ENBC 1993. 57. The household survey data cannot be disaggregated within households to permit analysis by gender. Nor were other measures of intrahousehold distributions of income, consumption, or welfare available. However, other indicators suggest that women are disadvantaged in numerous ways and the burdens of poverty fall heavily upon them. Women are subject to the authority of men and are secluded and confined by Muslim tradition. Women have less education than men: female enrollment is a meager 21 percent (33 percent for males), and only 10 percent of women are literate compared to 20 percent of men. Customary and religious laws diminish the status of women, barring their access to productive resources, education, health, family planning, employment, land tenure, and technical assistance. Women are treated as residual heirs and inheritance procedures favor sons over daughters and children over mothers. The modal marriage age is below thirteen, with male guardians often making contracts without consulting the girl brides. Repudiation by husbands is common, as are polygamy and remarriage. According to the 1992 Niger Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), fertility is extremely high and rising at 7.4 and mothers' age at first birth is falling. Maternal mortality is also extremely high at 652 per 100,000 live births. 5. Probit multivariate regressions were run for rural and urban groups. The dependent variable was poor or non-poor. Independent variables included head of household's gender, age, activity, and education, household location and size, and the gender and education of household members. A table of coefficients is in Annex 3. 39 58. Changes have occurred in women's status and, in some ways, the adverse economic situations of the past two decades has had positive effects on women's economic and political entitlements. Traditional divisions of labor and responsibility have given way in the face of increased male migration from rural areas. Women have been obliged to enter the commercial world to sustain their families and-at least during their husband's absence-many rural women have assumed the decisionmaking role of the household. 59. There are also positive changes at the national political level. In 1987, one woman became a Cabinet member. A Family Code and a Rural Code were drafted in 1991, which, at least on paper, would provide the potential for giving women equal basic rights and better access to land and property titles. Although the Family Code has been blocked by fundamentalist opposition, the Rural Code was approved by the National Assembly on March 2, 1993. Even if enacted into law, these codes would be subject to interpretation by judges and civil servants and slow to be implemented, because of weak mechanisms for enforcement. Poverty and education 60. Not surprisingly, poverty is strongly correlated with education. The incidence, depth, and severity of poverty are greater for less educated groups. The level of education of the head of household shows a strong correlation with poverty, as Table 7 shows. Seventy percent of households whose head is illiterate are poor. This falls to 58 percent when the head of household has attended Koranic school; 56 percent when the head of household has attended primary school, and 29 percent when the head of household has attended secondary school. Table 7 Poverty indices and contribution to poverty by education level of household head Head of Population Poverty indices Contribution to Education level household(%) share(0/) Po P1 P2 national poverty(Po) None 52.3 51.8 0.70 0.25 0.12 57.2 Koranic 35.9 36.3 0.58 0.19 0.10 33.2 Literate 2.9 3.5 0.65 0.20 0.09 3.6 Primary 5.7 5.4 0.56 0.18 0.09 4.7 Secondary 2.8 2.6 0.29 0.10 0.05 1.2 Higher 0.4 0.4 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.1 Niger 100.0 100.0 0.63 0.22 0.10 100.0 Source: ENBC 1993. 61. The extremely low levels of education and literacy handicap the fight against poverty. Illiteracy restricts the use of mass media to inform people of health, nutrition, family planning, and other areas that impact family and individual welfare. It also narrows people's employment and productive options and reduces rural and urban productivity. Only 13 percent of Nigeriens (17 percent of men and 10 percent of women) have had any formal schooling; a scant 2.4 percent progressed beyond the primary level. The 11 percent of women and 23 percent of men who have attended Koranic schools are deemed illiterate, as Koranic school teaches exclusively the Koran. 62. Low educational attainment is the result of Niger's very low primary school enrollment ratio: according to the ENBC only 27 percent of Nigerien children go to school (this is consistent with administrative records). This is dismal even by African standards; among neighboring Sahelian countries, only Mali has a lower rate (24 percent in 1990); the next lowest is Burkina 40 Faso (37 percent in 1990). Enrollment varies widely and predictably with gender, location, and poverty level. Boys attend school more than girls, urban children more than their rural peers, and non-poor children more than poor. The range among groups is great: enrollment is 8 percent for very poor girls in rural areas and is ten times higher, at 80 percent, for non-poor boys in urban areas. In Niamey, enrollment is 83 percent for boys and 82 percent for girls (see Figure 8). 63. A multivariate analysis was carried out of the determinants of attending primary school. Explanatory variables are: gender, income quartile, urban/rural residence, household size, and head of household's age, sex, education level, economic activity, and marital status. The gender and level of education of the head of household have a significant influence that is highly positive if the head of household has attended secondary or primary school, and is a woman. Income level appears to be a significant factor in school attendance only for the richest quartile. Except for the very largest households, greater household size increases the probability of attending primary school. Urban residence, especially in Niamey, and gender have strong effects (see Annex 3). Poverty and source of income 64. The ENBC reports on the activity of the household head but provides no information on activities of other household members, thus excluding most women. Nearly 90 percent of rural household heads are farmer/pastoralists and 6 percent are small traders, hawkers, craftsmen, builders or transport workers. There is more diversity in urban areas. In Niamey, one-third are administrators, executives or entrepreneurs, 17 percent are other salaried workers, 17 percent are small traders/vendors, and 13 percent are craftsman, self-employed builders or transport workers. In other cities, 25 percent are small-traders and 21 percent are farmer/pastoralists. In rural areas, the incidence of poverty is about the same among farmer/pastoralists and craftsman and workers, but much lower among the small traders (29 percent compared to 66 percent) (see Table 8). Table 8 Poverty level of rural population by socioeconomic group of the household head Head ofhousehold Population Poverty indices Contribution to socioeconomic group share (o) Po P1 P2 national poverty (Po) Small traders, hawkers 3.20 0.29 0.073 0.026 1.41 Craftsman, self-employed, builders/transport workers 2.57 0.66 0.140 0.042 2.60 Farmer/pastoralists 88.56 0.68 0.232 0.107 91.05 All rural - 0.66 0.225 0.104 100.00 Note: All rural includes those that are statistically significant. Source: ENBC 1993. 65. Livestock ownership plays an important role in the Nigerien household economy: livestock can be a consumption good, an investment good, or a productive input. The poorest group in rural areas are households headed by farmers without herds, who make up 7 percent of the rural population. Among them 79 percent are poor and the depth and severity of poverty is highest. The three other categories show decreasing poverty: farmers who have sheep and goats but no cattle; farmers who have cattle but no camels; and farmers who have cattle and camels (see Table 9). The nomadic herder population, who were not included in the ENBC survey, are an extremely vulnerable group whose livelihood can be easily devastated by drought. 41 Table 9 Poverty level of farmer/pastoralists Head ofhousehold Population Poverty indices Contribution to Socioeconomic group share (%/) PO P P2 national poverty (Po) Farmers 7.1 0.79 0.38 0.22 8.2 Farmer/pastoralists with sheep and goats 52.3 0.69 0.24 0.11 53.6 Farmer/pastoralists with cattle and other 35.5 0.64 0.20 0.09 33.6 Farmer/pastoralists with camels and cattle 5.1 0.61 0.18 0.07 4.6 All farmers 100.0 0.68 0.23 0.11 100.0 Source: ENBC 1993. Poverty and consumption patterns 66. Expenditure and consumption patterns vary with urban/rural residence and poverty. Urban household budgets are predominately monetary expenditures (89 percent) which are 58 percent of rural budgets (see Table 10). Monetary expenditures are higher for the non-poor than for the poor, with a greater disparity between rural and urban areas. Home consumption by urban households is negligible, but it is 42 percent for poor rural households. Food gifts make a small contribution to the budget of all groups-highest for poor rural households at 3.6 percent. Table 10 Budget share by level of poverty and budget item (percent) Population Monetary Home Imputed Food gifts group expenditures consumption rent received Total Urban Poor 82.50 1.01 14.63 1.86 100 Non-poor 90.81 0.27 7.91 1.01 100 Total 88.54 0.47 9.74 1.24 100 Rural Poor 49.58 42.05 4.75 3.62 100 Non-poor 64.83 29.35 2.92 2.90 100 Total 58.05 35.00 3.73 3.22 100 Niger Poor 56.10 33.93 6.70 3.27 100 Non-poor 73.82 19.29 4.65 2.25 100 Total 66.81 25.08 5.46 2.65 100 Source: ENBC 1993. 67. The composition of urban monetary expenditures follows Engel's law, with the poor spending 72 percent on food compared to 52 percent for the non-poor (see Table 11). Table 12 shows how little meat and fish the poor eat. This is the only significant difference in the types of food bought by rural poor and non-poor households. Difftrences are more pronounced in urban areas, where the poor allocate about twice as large a share of monetary expenditures on cereals as the non-poor (30 percent versus 16 percent) and a notably smaller share on meat and fish. 42 Table 11 Budget share in urban areas by type of consumption (percent) 7pe of Urban consumption Poor Non-poor Total Food 72.01 51.75 56.89 Housing 12.16 13.75 13.35 Clothing 6.93 12.62 11.18 Health 2.91 3.12 3.07 Transportation 4.24 16.08 13.07 Education 0.91 0.86 0.87 Leisure 0.54 1.09 0.95 Others 0.31 0.72 0.62 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: ENBC 1993. Table 12 Monetary food expenditures share by income level (percent) Urban Rural Food item Poor Non-poor Total Poor Non-poor Total Cereals 29.62 16.51 19.84 14.90 14.04 14.36 Fruits/vegetables 5.21 4.33 4.55 9.53 8.51 8.90 Condiments 8.17 5.01 5.81 8.37 6.93 7.47 Oils/fats 4.16 3.14 3.40 3.60 4.09 3.90 Meat/fish 8.61 12.00 11.14 12.50 15.81 14.56 Other food items 16.24 10.76 12.15 12.28 13.60 13.10 Total 72.01 51.75 56.89 61.18 62.98 62.29 Source: ENBC 1993. Poverty and nutrition 68. Table 13 shows estimated consumption per capita of major food types, including home production and purchases. In this and other per capita estimates, in the absence of actual data, equitable food distribution within households has been assumed, although this is contrary to anthropological studies. The poor consume less of all food categories than the non-poor. The differences are particularly great for vegetables, roots and tubers, meat, fish, eggs and dairy products-all essential to a healthy diet. Looking at cereals, the urban non-poor have a preference for maize and rice over millet and sorghum. These inferior goods (away from which higher income consumers substitute) are candidates for poverty-sensitive price and tax policy design. Table 13 Food consumption per capita per year by poverty level (kilograms) Rural Urban Food item Poor Non-poor Poor Non-poor Cereals 250.6 342.8 210.5 223.0 Millet 206.8 280.6 136.9 111.7 Sorghum 30.3 39.1 32.4 21.2 Maize 10.4 9.7 13.7 26.7 Rice 2.4 11.7 23.0 52.7 Others 0.7 1.7 4.5 10.7 Tubers/roots 3.2 9.1 4.2 10.3 Vegetables 4.6 7.6 9.7 22.2 Meat/fish 3.5 12.3 5.1 19.9 Eggs/dairy products 23.0 41.6 5.5 7.0 Source: ENBC 1993. 43 69. The ENBC estimated food intake during years of good rainfall and record harvests. For each household, food intake was compared with required calories and other micronutrients (taking into account age, sex, and activity of each household member, and aggregating to estimate a total household requirement). There are methodological caveats in these data and estimates. First, because of the vagaries of rainfall and frequent droughts to which agricultural production is hostage, the food intake data are not adequately representative, but are instead an "as good as it ever gets" situation. Second, seasonal variations in food intake are high, and to allow for seasonal effects, food intake should have been carefully measured and weighed at several selected times during the year. The surveys collected food intake data at only one time during the year for each household. Third, it is difficult to get accurate intake measures without having survey staff present in households for several days. Although food was weighed and measured during the survey, accuracy and margins of error are unknown. Fourth, only average household food intake is shown, without any indication of the distribution or variance across households. Averages can mask considerable inequality. Finally, converting foodstuffs into nutritional intake is problematic. Some food tables overstate the nutritional value of foods by reporting the total nutrients in the fbod, rather than the nutrients that are available in the food in a form that the body can absorb. For example, about 5 to 15 percent of the iron in cereals is in an absorbable form, whereas 30 percent of the iron in meat can be absorbed by the body. Actual absorption is affected by other factors, such as health status and diet. Eating vitamin C with meat increases iron absorption, drinking tea reduces it. Sick people absorb fewer nutrients from the food they eat than healthy people. 70. The estimates suggest an average total daily caloric intake per capita of 2,430 kilocalories in urban areas and 2,742 kilocalories in rural areas. In aggregate (abstracting from distributional issues), this is potentially an adequate intake (see Table 14). Disaggregating by poverty status, it appears that in a good year, the non-poor's caloric intake is adequate; that of the poor is marginal and deficient in several micronutrients; and the very poor-especially in rural areas-fall short of their protein and energy needs and are deficient in several micronutrients. Everyone-even the urban non-poor-is vulnerable to deficiencies in vitamin A and calcium. Table 14 Percentage of nutrient needs met, by poverty level and urban or rural residence Urban areas Rural areas Non- All Very Non- All Very Nutrients All poor poor poor All poor poor poor Caloric intake (kilocalories) 2,430 2,684 2,121 1,893 2,742 3,496 2,341 2,128 Calories 112 123 99 88 122 154 105 95 Protein 117 130 102 92 127 163 108 96 Calcium 57 63 49 42 76 100 63 55 Iron 448 157 137 124 201 250 175 160 Vitamin A 47 60 30 23 31 42 25 21 Vitamin B1 142 150 132 122 230 276 206 186 Vitamin B2 95 125 58 45 66 90 53 46 Vitamin B6 91 106 72 62 92 121 76 66 Vitamin C 137 164 104 89 134 185 106 96 Note: These estimates for iron appear unlikely in a country with high anemia and may suffer from the fifth methodological caveat noted above. Source: ENBC 1993. 71. Table 15, Map 4 and Map 5 disaggregate the Nigerien population by income level and whether food requirements are met, with the following findings: 44 * About one-quarter of Niger's population are classified as very poor and have inadequate food to meet their basic protein and energy requirements even in a good year. About 1,800,000 rural people and 325,000 urban people are in this dire situation-a total of 2,125,000 people.6 * Fourteen percent of the rural population (940,000) and 19 percent of the urban population (267,000) do not meet their caloric requirements and have incomes between the lines which separate poverty and extreme poverty. * Escaping poverty in Niger does not mean escaping hunger. Among the population above the poverty lines, 8 percent of the rural population (530,000) and 26 percent of the urban (354,000) do not meet their caloric requirements. The estimated number of people without enough to eat even when rains are adequate is more than 4.2 million-over half the population. These calculations of caloric need are aggregate and imprecise, require questionable assumptions, and do not address whether fundamental nutritional needs-beyond caloric need-are met. Table 15 Caloric requirement coverage by poverty level and locality Locality and coverage Non-poor Poor Very poor Total Rural Covered 26.56 16.64 9.82 53.02 Not covered 7.71 13.54 25.73 46.98 Total 34.26 30.18 35.55 100.00 Urban Covered 22.12 6.45 2.84 31.41 Not covered 25.68 19.35 23.56 68.59 Total 47.80 25.81 26.40 100.00 Source: ENBC 1993. Map 4 Percentage of population with insufficient caloric intake NIGER nau dmminatims used and the boundats a, on tdum ma do not anply, Percenta of the tow popuhmoe on the put of the Woid Ba* Group. ay judganait the Itg status of 25 to 40% any taritoy or any endorsanat or acceputsc of sud boundmries 40 to 55% 55 to 60% 60 to 75% Map famturm o Disicts (d6psrtarners) Arromlie-rmats 8 NWwatm al D,arct Cqailsis 6. The per capita annual income levels set for the poverty groups are: for rural areas, extreme poverty is below CFAF 35,000 (US$120), poverty is income below CFAF 50,000 (US$172); for urban areas, extreme poverty is below CFAF 50,000 (USS172) and the poverty is income below CFAF 75,000 (USS259) (1993 exchange rate of CFAF290 = US$1). 45 Map 5 Percentage of extreme poor population with insufficient caloric intake NIGER 71e dnanaatimts med and the bondrines down n i do no0t irply, Percetage of the toa populoM on the pst of the Wold Bok Gaup, any judgnut an die lep dta of 12 to 20% sny taritory or sy aen nt or accepane of sud botedories 20 to 30% 30 to 40% 400o50% Map festures .ke Chd O Districts (d4pacM ) D ind Capitl Nutritional status of children 72. Nutritional indicators reflect health and wealth. Stunted growth and emaciation result from insufficient food intake, illness and inadequate health care, poor sanitary conditions, and poor feeding practices, which may all be associated with poverty. The preceding section drew conclusions about food sufficiency from the household survey data. The 1992 DHS data provide a picture of the inadequate nutritional status of Niger's children under five years of age. * Thirty-two percent of children are stunted (low height-for-age), 36 percent are underweight (low weight-for-age), and 16 percent are wasted (low weight-for-height). The percentage of wasted children is extremely high even for Sub-Saharan Africa.7 These rates suggest that one out of three children is stunted and one out of six is emaciated, which are fourteen and seven times, respectively, the expected levels for children in a healthy, well-nourished population. * Nearly half of the stunted children are severely stunted, one-third of the underweight children are severely underweight, and one-fifth of the wasted children are severely undernourished (that is, more than three standard deviations below the reference population mean). 73. The 1992 DHS data indicate wide regional variations. The prevalence of chronic and acute malnutrition is significantly higher in Maradi than in the rest of the country. All three anthropometric indicators are worst in rural areas, best in Niamey, and somewhere in between in the other urban areas (see Table 16). 7. Stunting occurs when height-for-age is two or more standard deviations below the mean of the reference population. Stunting reflects cumulative, long-term chronic malnutrition. Wasting measures the current nutritional status of a child, looking at weight-for- height. When a child's weight-for-height is below the normative standard, it is a sign of acute malnutrition and physiological stress. 46 Table 16 Percentage of children under five malnourished by region Low height-for-age Low weight-for-height Low weight-for-age Region (stunted) (wasted) (undewight) Rural 33.9 16.7 37.9 Other urban 28.8 12.1 31.8 Niamey 19.2 11.8 23.7 Source: DHS 1992. 74. The DHS shows that children are less likely to be malnourished if the mother has some education or works in the informal sector, if the father has some education or a higher-income occupation, and if the mother is unmarried or her husband is absent. Parental education and occupational effects (a good proxy for income) are commonly found in all countries. The single or solitary mother effect might be the result of remittances or reflect intrahousehold food and income distributional effects that benefit small children in the absence of a male household head. Many families in Niger eat from a common pot and smaller, slower eaters are at a great disadvantage when there is not enough food to go around. With fewer adults competing, a mother may be able to ensure that small children receive a greater share of food. Life expectancy 75. In 1980, the life expectancy at birth was estimated at 44 years, with the usual disparity between men and women-46 for women and 42 for men. The 1988 Population Census has estimated life expectancy at 47.2 years in 1988, with a difference of 3.2 years in favor of women. This is one of the lowest rates in the world. The crude death rate for Niger was 27 deaths per 1,000 in 1960, declining to 22 in 1977, 20 in 1988, and 19 (estimated) in 1992. This is the sixth highest rate in the world. Infant and child mortality 76. Infant and child mortality are sensitive indicators of poverty. The levels of infant and under-five mortality in Niger are extremely high: 123 and 318, respectively, for the period 1988-92 (see Table 17 and Figure 6). Twelve percent of all children die before their first birthday-60,000 infants every year-and almost one-third die before their fifth birthday.High fertility, close spacing Table 17 Infant and child mortality Years preceding survey Mortality rates 10-14 5-9 0-4 per 1,000 live births (1980) (1985) (1990) Neonatal mortality 52.3 63.1 40.7 Postneonatal mortality 76.7 83.3 79.0 Infant mortality 129.0 146.3 123.1 Child mortality 206.0 220.2 222.6 Under-five mortality 308.4 334.3 318.2 Source: DHS 1992. early childbearing, low maternal education, poor health care, malnutrition and unsanitary living conditions all contribute. Child mortality rates are lower for children of educated mothers and women who receive prenatal and delivery care (see Table 18). 47 Table 18 Infant and child mortality by characteristics of the mother Mortality Chamacteristics Neonatal Infant Child Under-ftve Location Niamey 24.3 63.8 99.1 156.6 Other cities 41.5 101.7 151.3 237.6 Urban 35.7 89.0 133.2 210.3 Rural 54.5 142.6 238.1 346.8 Region Niamey 24.3 63.8 99.1 156.6 Dosso 56.4 116.8 190.0 284.6 Maradi 55.4 160.8 274.2 390.9 Tahoua/Agadez 44.6 141.0 226.5 335.5 Tillaberi 54.7 124.6 181.0 283.1 Zinder/Diffa 56.4 139.3 252.0 356.1 Education None 52.5 137.0 228.3 334.0 Primary or more 40.8 101.9 118.1 207.9 Medical maternity care None 42.8 137.2 - - Either antenatal or delivery 45.2 100.3 - * Both 22.6 65.2 - - Total 51.7 134.5 221.4 326.1 Note: Based on the ten-year period before the survey. Source: DHS 1992. 77. Typically infant mortality makes up the largest share of under-five mortality. In Niger (and many other African countries) child mortality-the probability of dying between the first and fifth birthday-is very high, higher than infant mortality. As much as half of child mortality may be attributable to malnutrition-illness and poor nutrition interact to worsen the impact of each. Malnourished children are more susceptible to disease. Ill children do not cat well and become even more malnourished. Because poor sanitation and inaccessible health care particularly affect the poor, they bear a disproportionate part of the burden of infant and child mortality. Figure 6 Under-five mortality per 1,000 live births, 1980-90 300 -fimrity 200 Chid motality Infia mortWity 100 100 Post neOnstI! Mmrtlity Neonatal mortality 0 I I (1980) (1985) (1990) Source: DHS 1992. 48 78. Table 18 shows that mortality rates are worst in rural areas and best in Niamey. There are large regional variations with Niamey ahead of the rest of the country. Of the rest, the western regions, Dosso, and Tillaberi have relatively lower rates despite their greater poverty, perhaps because of their close proximity to Niamey and thus more accessible health care and better water availability. Because these regions also have less malnutrition, cultural differences in infant feeding and food distribution within households also play a role. 79. The DHS data suggest some worsening in child mortality since 1980, with only neonatal mortality (death within the first month of life) showing any reduction (1983-87 was a particularly bad time because of drought and a measles epidemic). These trends defy the health care improvements achieved during the last decades and suggest that poverty has been getting worse. Maternal mortality 80. During 1979-92, the maternal mortality rate was estimated to be between 650 to 700 maternal deaths per 100,000 births (about average for Sub-Saharan Africa). A woman's risk of dying during pregnancy or childbirth in her childbearing years is one in twenty. Childbearing is the main cause of death among women of childbearing age, accounting for 39 percent of these deaths-about 3,000 Nigerien women every year. Maternal mortality data are notoriously unreliable in most countries but DHS estimates does not suggest any improvement in Niger between 1970 and 1990. Access to safe water 81. Access to safe water is needed for a healthy life and for survival in rural areas. Table 19 shows access to water by income level and locality and by water source; Map 6 charts the percentage of the population with inadequate access to water by region. There is little difference within the rural population, but in urban areas income affects access to water: over one-third of the non-poor have water piped to their homes by the Socidtd nationale de 'eau (SNE), compared with 10 to 20 percent of the very poor and poor, who otherwise fetch water from public fountains. One- quarter of Niamey residents and 40 percent in other cities buy water from vendors who charge more than SNE. Private costs of linking to SNE are high and the SNE network is limited. Table 19 Access to water by income level for urban and rural areas (percent) Ruml Aras Nimney Other cities Poor Very Non- Poor Very Non- Poor Very Non- Water source poor poor poor poor poor poor SNE 0 0 0 19 9 41 12 9 35 Public fountain 17 15 16 47 64 28 45 50 27 Well 76 78 75 5 1 3 1 1 2 Purchased water 2 2 4 28 27 25 41 37 35 River, source 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: ENBC 1993. 49 Map 6 Percentage of population with inadequate access to water NIGER (rural population) T7e denondmintons used sad the boundaries shown on tids map do not imply on the port of the Wodd Bank Oroup. mny judgement on the l%egates of any terdiory or any wina t or aceptanc of each boune Poverty trends 82. Only scant data show trends in poverty in Niger over time. The only budget consumption household survey that can be compared with ENBC, the En quOte sur les budgets familiaux africains & Niamey (EBFAN) 1961-62, which has the same methodology, was limited to Niamey. Since the sample size was small, the findings cannot be used to interpret trends beyond the capital. Socioeconomic changes have occurred during the two intervening decades which make comparisons dubious. 83. These caveats notwithstanding, the increased share of household expenditure on food between 196 1-62 and 1989 suggests that the long-term trend in poverty may have worsened, although this could be the result of decreased flows of food from rural areas and increased urban pressure on land, which makes it more difficult for families in Niamey to cultivate small household plots or gardens (see Table 20). Table 20 Expenditure structure for Niamey households in 1961 and 1989 Expenditures 1961-62 1989 Variation Food 45.21 50.64 +5.43 Clothing 9.88 10.06 +0.18 Housing 18.56 16.39 -2.18 Others 26.35 22.91 -3.43 Total 100.00 100.00- Source: EBFAN 1961 and ENBC 1993. 84. What of the indirect evidence? The key indicator, real GDP per capita, has fallen by about 34 perce 50 nt from 1980 to 1995 (see Figure 1). The decline has been greater for rural than urban areas. Little has helped to reduce the effects of drought on rural incomes, whereas the impact of falling uranium revenues on urban incomes has been somewhat mitigated by public sector employment expansion and wage increases and various macroeconomic stabilization measures. There are no data to reveal distribution of income trends. Niger seems to have been less affected by modernization and urbanization which have increased disparities in other countries, and the PPA suggests that traditional redistributive mechanisms still operate. 85. Other indicators-the correlates of poverty-show no improvement and perhaps some worsening over the past twenty years. The economic boom of the 1970s did not result in welfare improvement as measured by health, maternal, child and infant mortality, education, literacy, life expectancy, and nutrition. Gains that have occurred are modest and partly attributable to the expansion of the rural health care infrastructure and government expenditure on education during the uranium boom. Recent trends 86. Since 1990, it is estimated that the percentage of the population below the poverty line has increased from 56 percent to 63 percent and the number of poor has grown from 4.4 to 5.8 million. Real GDP has grown more slowly than population, resulting in a continuous slide in average per capita consumption (World Bank 1995b). 87. What of the future? Since the devaluation, the economy has achieved modest growth and there is a new commitment in government to address poverty. Sound macroeconomic policies have been adopted to correct the fiscal imbalances that had built up. Inflation is stable and the exchange rate is at a sustainable and realistic level. However, external debt burdens the economy heavily, and unemployment is high and labor demand stagnant. The political situation remains fragile. Agriculture is hostage to pressures on the limited arable land, uncertain rainfall, and periodic drought, and environmental degradation is hard to check or reverse. There is sufficient water to triple the surface area under irrigation, although tapping this potential would require considerable infrastructure investment. Niger has achieved neither socioeconomic changes nor a strong family planning program to help slow population growth, and persistent high fertility may prove one of the biggest barriers to poverty alleviation. Determined government leadership and social action could help to begin a fertility decline, in the context of improved reproductive health care that would raise living standards for individual women, their families, communities, and the nation. 51  羈 輪 & 甲 寫 團 織 O 柴 鬥 矯O 悶 鬥 O 崗 透 悶 鬥 中 d n 叫 卜叫 O Z  88. Part I described the country and macroeconomic context, including a brief analysis of the effects of macroeconomic policies on poverty, the poverty profile, and the life circumstances and constraints facing the poor in Niger. Part 2 aims to provide a framework that will assist the Government of Niger in formulating an action plan against poverty. There is general consensus among policymakers and development partners that a strategy against poverty must include sound macroeconomic policies that stimulate labor-intensive and sustainable growth, better access to basic social services, and safety nets. Chapter III discusses the contribution that sound macroeconomic policies can make to poverty reduction. It assesses prospects for poverty decline under various assumptions and scenarios. Chapter IV assesses the poor's access to education, health, and family planning services, and offers comments on how improvements could be made. Chapter V reviews past effectiveness of safety nets to decide which types of safety net programs should be continued. Chapter VI summarizes policy recommendations and proposes a matrix of actions to reduce poverty. IIL Prospects for poverty decline and macroeconomic policies 89. Perhaps the most effective component of a poverty reduction strategy in Niger is the implementation of sound macroeconomic policies that stimulate labor-intensive and sustainable growth. Experience in Niger and other countries has demonstrated that sound macroeconomic policies result in higher GDP growth rates. In 1994 Niger achieved a 4.0 percent growth rate (3.0 percent growth rate in 1995)-more than double the growth rate of the previous two years- already demonstrating the positive impact of policy improvements. Extensive research of many African countries has confirmed this link between improved macroeconomic policies and better economic performance (World Bank 1994a and Bouton, Jones, and Kiguel 1995). The most successful reformers-Nigeria, Tanzania, Ghana, The Gambia, Burkina Faso, and Zimbabwe- achieved a mean per capita growth rate of 1.1 percent during 1987-91. Income growth was weaker in countries with small improvements in policy (-0.1 percent) and serious declines were experienced in countries where economic policies deteriorated (-2.6 percent). This also holds true for agriculture, which is of particular importance in Niger. A World Bank study found that countries that made "large improvements" in agricultural policies achieved an annual agricultural growth rate of 3.5 percent between 1986 and 1993, compared with 2.5 percent for countries that made "small improvements" and only 0.3 percent for countries with deteriorating policies (Donovan 1996). 90. It is feared that adjustment programs specifically designed to increase economic growth have hurt the poor. Yet little empirical evidence exists to prove that the poor's welfare has declined as a result of adjustment. On the contrary, robust research has found that incomes of the urban and rural poor have improved slightly, and incomes of rural areas-where the poor tend to be concentrated-have improved even more as a result of better terms of trade for agriculture due to improved macroeconomic policies. There is growing evidence that sound macroeconomic policy and growth reduces poverty, especially when governments are sensitive to the patterns of growth. (Dorosh and Sahn 1993, Easterly 1994, Demery and Squire 1994, and IMF 1995). Prospects for poverty decline 91. Prospects for poverty decline have been presented in a simulation model showing different economic scenarios for Niger. This exercise demonstrates the likely impact that different levels and patterns of economic growth will have on poverty. The analysis relies on a dynamic 55 two-sector-agriculture and non-agriculture-simulation model that takes into account differential population growth rates, household sizes and income levels in rural and urban areas (World Bank 1995b). 92. Prospects for economic growth-and poverty reduction-are better for the coming years than they have been in the recent past. Previously, GDP grew more slowly than population, causing a continuous slide in per capita consumption and an increase in poverty, but during the coming decade overall GDP growth is expected to exceed slightly the growth rate of population. Average consumption per capita should rise at about 0.8 percent annually if the base case assumptions and projections are borne out. This base case makes a set of assumptions that are considered reasonable and feasible, while optimistic. 93. In the base case scenario, scenario (a), population is assumed to grow at its present rate of 3.3 percent until 2005 (see Figure 7). Fertility does not begin to decline until 2005, given that there is no decline evident between the 1988 census and the 1992 DHS. Mortality levels are based on the 1988 census and assumed to decline according to standard demographic patterns for developing countries. AIDS mortality is incorporated in the projection and causes a small decline in life expectancy as of age 15. Given the high level of mortality from other causes, and the relatively low HIV prevalence estimates for Niger, AIDS is not as important a determinant of overall life expectancy as it is in other countries. Net migration is assumed to remain at zero. Agriculture is assumed to grow at 3.3 percent in the next decade in the unlikely event of no droughts occurring. Sectors of the economy other than agriculture are also assumed to grow at an average rate of 3.3 percent. This improved performance in response to macroeconomic adjustment, especially the 1994 devaluation, was evident in a growth rate of 4.1 percent for 1994-up from 1.9 percent in the previous two years. Good performance is expected to persist as import substitution and export sectors grow and private investment is stimulated by liberalization of the labor market, trade, industry, and transport, and as tax reforms are implemented, domestic savings increased, and the informal sector is supported by financing tailored to small enterprises and other planned measures. 94. If the conditions of the base case scenario are fufilled, the proportion of the population in poverty would slightly decrease, as shown in scenario (a). The number of poor will continue to rise by more than 2 million people over the next decade and the inequality measured by the Gini coefficient will stay at the same level. 95. In scenario (b), population growth is assumed to slow to 2.8 percent over the coming decade while overall growth would reach 6 percent, with a strong agricultural performance of 5 percent (see Figure 7). This scenario, the most optimistic, assumes that external conditions are propitious and economic growth is robust. A strong family planning program, coupled with an effective information campaign to boost demand with support from community leaders could make this feasible, as other countries with equally unpropitious starting points have demonstrated. Net migration is assumed to remain at zero. Compared to the base case scenario, lower fertility would translate into 2.5 million fewer people by the year 2005. The poor population would slightly increase while the incidence would decrease to 53 percent. The inequality would also decrease- the Gini coefficient would go from 0.38 percent to 0.36. 56 Figure 7 Poverty and inequality indicators for different scenarios 7a. Scenario (a): current population growth 7b. Scenario (b): lower population grwth, and 3.3 percent overall growth and strong agriculture growth P12 10 0 14 . I- is lil Ill lll lll Pilikil I li l 7c. Scenario (c): current population growth and low economic growth lZ 14 12 MPO 1 Source: World Bank staff estimates. 96. In scenario (c), external events and weak internal policy are assumed to reduce economic growth to 2 percent for both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors while population continues to grow at its present high level of 3.3 percent (see Figure 7). In this scenario, every poverty indicator increases. There would be 10 million people below the poverty line-almost I million more than under the base case scenario. Nearly 77 percent of Nigeriens would be trapped in poverty of greater intensity while inequality would remain the same. 97. The growth rates assumed in the base case scenario are by no means assured. Unfavorable external conditions, especially drought, internal political upheaval that would stall democratization and economic reforms, and a failure to implement the measures for improved agricultural productivity could result in an outcome such as shown in the low growth scenario, scenario (c), or even worse. In scenario (c), agriculture is assumed to grow at an average rate of only 2 percent-well below the population growth rate-implying falling levels of farm output per capita. This could be brought about by drought or persistent poor rainfall, continued environmental degradation, and falling land productivity caused by over utilization and further expansion into marginal land. Sectors of the economy other than agriculture are assumed to grow at an average rate of 2 percent, consistent with trends over the past decade. This dismal prospect underlines the urgency of sound fiscal and economic management, pro-poor economic and social policies, and sustainable safety net programs. 57 98. This simulation exercise has confirmed that two critical factors must dominate the Niger poverty reduction strategy: * Growth in the agricultural sector. This sector is the motor of poverty reduction in Niger. Macroeconomic and sectoral policies and institutional development should support this objective. * Reduced population growth. A reduced population growth rate is vital to sustain any improvement in poverty status. Education and health policies, including access to family planning, and the legal and social environment should support this objective. In the absence of agricultural growth and effective population reduction, Niger is heading toward a poverty level of catastrophic proportions. Macroeconomic policies 99. A program of sound macroeconomic adjustment and fiscal discipline has been developed and has begun to be implemented.! Such a program will aim to guide policy actions to allow the Nigerien economy to continue its recovery from external shocks. A successful adjustment should move the economy onto a higher growth path and bring improvement in living standards. The reforms aim to restructure the composition of output, keep the economy open, decrease monopolies, enhance resource mobility, reduce price and other distortions that affect resource allocation, increase government effectiveness, improve public resource use and targeting towards the poor, build human capital and infrastructure, and enhance rural and urban incomes. The specific goal of the Government's macroeconomic policy reform program is to achieve a real GDP growth of 4.3 percent so that per capita incomes can increase by about 1 percent annually. The aim is also to reduce inflation from 7 to 3 percent. 100. The sound and efficient management of public expenditures is crucial in a poverty alleviation strategy that takes into account the formidable financial needs in the delivery of basic social services and the extent of government involvement in the Nigerien economy. The Government will seek to resolve the fiscal crisis by imposing fiscal discipline and redoubling its effort to raise budgetary revenue, and by reorienting public spending toward the effective delivery of services in education, health, population services, agriculture extension, and safety nets for operations, maintenance, and investment, especially in rural areas. 101. Niger has one of the lowest tax revenue to GDP ratios (7 percent) but it is making efforts to increase it. Tax reforms are planned which will simplify the system, broaden the tax base to include the informal sector, and improve tax and arrears collection. The uranium sector remains Niger's main source of government revenue even though its share has declined since mid-1980. Further restructuring of this sector is necessary because of the present state of the world uranium market. 102. On the expenditure side, the civil servant wage bill should be restrained by voluntary severance of 2,000 civil servants, more efficient hiring and deployment, and the setting of wage 8. nxe maccononic policy agenda is explained in the Policy Framework Paper prepared by the Nigerien Government in collaboration with the saffs of the World Bank and IMF. 58 policies. The goal is to reduce the wage bill to 50 percent of tax revenues. Student scholarship payments should be reduced and recipients selected more rigorously based on need. 103. Public investment is being increased substantially, with improved selection of investments which ensure consistency with government priorities and development strategies. The Public Investment Program for 1996-98 will total CFAF 230 billion, of which 31 percent is earmarked for rural development, 39 percent for human resources, including education, health, hydraulics (drinking water), and housing, and 23 percent for infrastructure building. Improvements in the implementation and the mechanisms for targeting and evaluating the impact of projects will increase the program's impact on the poor. 104. The Government will reduce its debt with the domestic banking system to avoid crowding out lending to the private sector. It will also ensure that monetary policy supports other measures to maintain positive real interest rates so as to encourage domestic saving. Careful evaluation of the need for financial intermediation and measures to strengthen financial institutions are planned as a basis for a solid program of financial sector reform. 105. A prudent policy has been formulated to manage the large external debt: to seek debt relief from Paris Club and other bilateral creditors, to continue to seek concessional foreign financing, and not to contract or guarantee any non-concessional foreign loans with the exception of short-term import credits and loans connected with debt restructuring. However, given the weight of outstanding arrears at the end of 1995, the external debt burden would not be reduced substantially. 106. Public enterprises are to be reformed, restored, privatized, or liquidated to improve the efficiency of this part of the economy. The Government's role in productive activities is to be reduced, opening new areas for the private sector. Debts and payment arrears among public enterprises and with the central government are to be settled, overstaffing eliminated, and annual audits of accounts introduced. 107. If the environment within which the private sector (agriculture, stock fanning) operates is to become more efficient, the regulatory framework must be improved and simplified, the labor market made more flexible, monopolies eliminated, taxation and investment codes simplified and private transport liberalized. Measures to improve human resource investments, promote the Family Code, and adopt the Rural Code will also have a positive impact on the private sector in various ways. Price control measures introduced since the realignment of the exchange rate in early 1994 have been repealed, markets will determine producer and consumer prices with a few exceptions, and periodic adjustments will be made to control the prices of petroleum goods and public utilities (water and electricity). Steps are to be taken to rehabilitate and improve maintenance of the country's road network, and to correct the existing deficiencies in management of the airport. Niger's competitiveness is inhibited by high electricity and petroleum product costs, so the Government plans to reduce energy costs by reducing its role, allowing competitive private sector operations to expand, and putting operations that are not privatized onto a sound commercial footing. To encourage exports, the Government intends to continue the liberalization of foreign trade while intensifying the drive against tax evasion. 108. As the poverty profile has shown, poverty in Niger is essentially a rural phenomenon. To fight poverty and to support rural development and the delivery of social services in rural areas, the Government is willing to delegate larger powers to regional and local authorities and increase their 59 budgetary resources. This decentralization policy will include the redeployment of social services to rural areas and the establishment of territorial governments. 109. The various reform and restructuring measures summarized above are part of an integrated program to restore growth and reduce poverty. All will make important contributions to these two major objectives, but a few may be singled out as particularly relevant to a poverty strategy. First, there can be no significant poverty reduction without improving rural incomes. The agriculture growth strategy outlined below is a cornerstone of the poverty reduction strategy. 110. Second, as part of a prudent fiscal policy and for broader reasons, wage restraint by the public sector is important. Rises in public sector wages bloat the government wage bill, crowd out other vital expenditures and necessitate higher tax revenues to balance the budget. They also shift the structure of labor costs upwards for the modern private sector, because the Government is such a large employer that other wages tend to follow government pay patterns. Higher private sector labor costs reduce -employment and growth, and thus worsen poverty and the country's economic prospects. High modern sector wages (public and private) also exacerbate urban/rural income disparities, despite the redistribution that occurs through the transfers between and within families described in Chapter II. 111. Third, the Government has a crucial role in providing social services and infrastructure that will raise productivity and living standards and enable the poor (and others) to take advantage of economic opportunities. In many country studies, education has been shown to increase the earning power and productivity of farmers and industrial workers. Better health also improves productivity and welfare. The Government intends, therefore, to focus scarce public investment resources on primary education and primary health care services, especially in rural areas, and on rural infrastructure. An increase in the share of total government spending and a shift in investment and recurrent budget allocations within health, education, and agriculture are needed. It is especially important that certain critical inputs, such as drugs, operating expenses for agricultural extension staff, and chalk and books for schools are available so that massive capital investments and expenditures on physical infrastructure and staff can result in effective service delivery. 112. Fourth, the growth and poverty projections at the beginning of this chapter underscored the potential impact of a population policy that would enable fertility to decline. As long as population continues to grow at 3.3 percent, the economy will have to run just to stay in the same place. Vast individual, family, community, and national resources are needed to nurture, educate, and sustain the rapidly growing number of people. Simply maintaining the highly unsatisfactory status quo is a huge challenge. Slower population growth would free resources for improving living standards at all levels, from the individual to the national. A strong population policy should be a fundamental part of government macroeconomic strategy. It should center on strong commitment, actions, and financing to provide good information and family planning services in the context of broader health care for families, to enable people to freely choose and realize their desired family size and timing, with a good understanding of the consequences of those choices for their health and well-being and that of their children and future generations. Agricultural policy and food security 113. Efforts to raise rural incomes must be a cornerstone of a poverty strategy because of the economic dominance of agriculture in Niger, the extent of food insecurity, especially among the 60 poor who are concentrated in rural areas, and the disparity between urban and rural incomes. Niger is primarily an agricultural economy, with close to 80 percent of the population living in rural areas and more than 85 percent of economically active people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Food insecurity, hunger, and malnutrition are strong correlates of poverty as the poverty profile illustrated. There are three types of food insecurity in Niger: (a) widespread acute food shortages caused by a natural calamity such as drought, (b) a pre-harvest seasonal food shortage known as the "hungry season" (priode de soudure) between June and September, when farmers run out of grain and food prices are high; and (c) chronic food insufficiency for a significant portion of the population, causing stunting, wasting, and low weight-for-age among children, which is worsened by exposure to disease and parasites. A range of actions are needed to address all three causes of food insecurity. 114. The Government's strategy for agriculture and food security has three key objectives: (a) improving access-trying to assure the ability of all Nigeriens to produce or procure adequate food through environmental conservation and agricultural development and extension support; (b) ensuring stability of supply through setting up emergency food reserves and local grain storage facilities, and improving markets; and (c) fostering alternate sources of employment and income in the face of limited and uncertain agricultural income. Several needed institutional reforms have been identified and need to be implemented in order to achieve these objectives. Interventions to improve nutrition information and provide services to deal with malnutrition in a timely and appropriate way are especially important to the poor. This strategy for agriculture and food security is laid out in two documents drafted by government and World Bank staff: A Strategy to Promote Sustainable Agricultural Growth and Food Security Strategy: Integrating Poverty Reduction and Growth. They are to be discussed at a government-donor Round Table on poverty planned to be convened in Niamey in late 1996. 115. Accelerating agricultural growth is an enormous challenge. So far, growth has come primarily from area expansion, which is unsustainable and detrimental to the resource base. Prospects for output growth based on the currently practiced low-input rainfed farming systems are bleak, and variable rainfall affects output of all but the very small amount of crops grown under irrigation. Although there is scope for increasing irrigation, productivity increases will depend on technological improvements for rainfed fanning under Sahelian conditions that are profitable for farmers to adopt Profitability will be affected by access to well-functioning markets, appropriate price and fiscal policies, and adequate physical infrastructure. 116. Activities to improve access to food include a variety of agricultural sector support and liberalization measures. One of the highest priorities is to stop and reverse the degradation of agricultural land which results from highly intensive use. A number of low-cost, effective measures are known and good extension is needed to disseminate this knowledge. These measures include making more use of animal manure; adopting crop varieties with good root growth; and growing acacia, neem, mango, guava and other trees to provide soil shade, windbreaks, fuel, livestock feed, nutritious fruit, and nitrogen-rich foliage for the soil. Intercropping systems that maintain good ground cover throughout the season have multiple benefits: they suppress weed growth, lower soil temperatures, reduce evaporation, and conserve available rainfall and soil moisture for crop growth. There is some unexploited irrigation potential and room for improving traditional irrigation techniques which are labor intensive, waste water, and may cause soil degradation. Better tillage and other techniques for intercropping, soil preparation, and planting and contouring that reduce runoff and erosion are widely used elsewhere under similar conditions and could be disseminated and adopted in Niger at relatively little cost, and have potentially large 61 benefits. For example, manuring and adding other organic matter to soil prior to seeding, creating micro-catchments or planting pits to collect meager rainfall, and other water-harvesting techniques that collect runoff and are especially useful. On sloping ground, cultivation along the contour as well as stone, earth, or vegetative bunding can reduce runoff and erosion and increase water infiltration into the soil. 117. There is scope for diversification of agricultural output, in particular for growing more high-value export crops which use less water and for which there is a market in which Niger is competitive. These include vegetables, especially onions, tomatoes, peppers, French beans, garlic, and pulses, and some cereals. There is potential for better small-scale irrigation to yield a good return. More cow peas should be grown for export and local consumption. Prospects also exist for higher productivity in animal husbandry through improved animal health and nutrition, genetic upgrading of herds, and changes in herd management practices. Higher productivity would enable increased exports of live animals and meat in the regional market, where there is significant demand and where Niger is competitive. Intensification of livestock production, including dairy farming, will have the added benefit of increasing local consumption of milk and cheese. 118. Many crops and livestock products show high interseasonal and interregional price variations because of inadequate storage facilities within and outside farms, high transport costs associated with poor rural road networks, and limited access by farmers to credit to finance marketing. Better rural infrastructure, especially roads that would faciliate transportation of goods from production points to markets, should have priority. 119. Steps to improve the stability of the food supply have been taken and more are planned. Local grain banks are being set up that enable farmers to draw cash against deposits of grain after the harvest, and withdraw grain to sell when prices are high before the next harvest. This also reduces storage costs and losses for individual farmers. Liberalization measures are allowing local and export markets to function better, which benefits sellers and buyers and opens opportunities for traders and other market intermediaries. Management of the national emergency food reserve is being improved to make it more efficient and to ensure it does not hinder the working of the private market or distort production incentives. Part of a previously excessively large national grain stock has been monetized to add flexibility and reduce costs. In years of abnormally low food production, food will be imported as needed. An early warning and disaster response system has begun functioning during the past five years which helps ensure rapid response to seriously adverse food supply situations. 120. To increase the potential for alternative sources of employment and income, the Government is promoting small rural enterprises and providing employment through labor- intensive public work schemes. Investing in rural infrastructure, especially rural roads built with labor-intensive techniques, fulfills a need and serves two objectives. As described in Chapter V, workers are paid in full or part with food as a way to supplement the income of self-targeted beneficiaries. There is scope for expanding the public works program into rural areas, using organizations such as NIGETIP. Promoting rural enterprises successfully requires, among other things, the provision of microenterprise skills development and training as well as the establishment of appropriate financial institutions that can offer credit. Efforts in numerous countries have proved expensive and ineffectual yet there are lessons to be drawn from a few successful models. 121. Important institutional reforms that have been identified are: to improve security of land tenure, to remove discrinination against women, and to make extension services more effective. 62 Implementation of the Rural Code will improve security of land tenure, which will encourage farmers to invest in the long-term viability of their land. Issues remain to be resolved, however, requiring the Land Code to be supplemented by other measures. It is imperative to remove discrimination against women for them to realize their potential as farmers. Line ministries need restructuring and rationalizing to eliminate duplication, increase gains in efficiency and effectiveness, and to reduce administrative and overhead costs. The budget allocation needs to ensure that extension workers have the logistical support they need to perform effectively. 122. Efficiency gains could be realized if the Government encouraged the functioning of the private sector and withdrew from direct intervention in markets. This would release scarce government resources to policy planning and technical support and would stop the drain on the budget for subsidies to unprofitable public sector institutions. Deregulation of markets should be completed and the participation of private traders and processors in commercial activities encouraged. The state rice processing and marketing organization, RINI, is unprofitable and uncompetitive and should be privatized. There are private sector organizations-private enterprises, rural cooperatives, organized economic interest groups, and NGOs-that are taking over state activities in seed multiplication, small-scale irrigation facility operation and management, aspects of pest and disease control, and forestry seed production. 123. The demise of state-run cooperatives provides an opportunity for creating a legislative environment that supports cooperatives governed by internationally recognized principles and recognizes them as private institutions established and managed by members. Legislation governing grassroots savings and loan associations with adequate protection of savings and autonomy is long overdue and, if enacted, would help enhance rural financial intermediation. 124. Interventions to improve nutrition information and provide services to deal with malnutrition in a timely and appropriate way are especially important to the poor. Community- based growth monitoring which includes problem solving and advice, often delivered through peers rather than directly by health care workers can be highly effective in detecting infants at risk and acting before malnutrition has progressed too far. Numerous countries have proved that this approach can be cost-effective, but it needs good planning and support, which could be provided by the health system or NGOs. Information to male and female farmers could encourage families to grow and eat more fruit and vegetables and diversify and enrich diets. Health care workers need in-service training in nutrition so that they can deal with malnutrition better. 63 IV. Social services 125. Investment in education and health (including nutrition and family planning) to increase the human capital of the poor is a vital element of a poverty reduction strategy. In Niger, greater human resource development will help restore conditions for economic growth. Education is an effective weapon against poverty. Better education will facilitate increased returns to labor, improve standards of living, health and nutrition, and may reduce fertility. The effect of primary education for girls has been shown to have especially strong social benefits. Improving health by lowering the incidence of infectious and parasitic illnesses, especially among children, and decreasing fertility by reducing demand for large families are critical to making progress toward faster growth. Despite Niger's efforts to expand investments in the social sectors, much remains to be done to increase access by the poor to basic education and health and to improve their quality. Many social programs have benefited the better-off in urban areas but have neglected the rural poor, who are most in need. Retargeting expenditures toward rural areas, where 80 percent of the poor live, is essential. Redistributing expenditures within the education and health sector toward primary education and health care should be a key element of the poverty alleviation strategy. Education "The most beautifid day of my life was the first day of school; the worst day was the day we were expelled God did not want us to go to school by making our parents poor. -A girl in Boukoki II. 126. This section summarizes educational enrollment; examines demand for education by the poor, drawing on their comments in the PPA; list the factors that reduce enrollment rates; briefly reviews public policies and spending on education; and comments on the key actions in education that would contribute to a poverty reduction strategy. Enrollment 127. The poverty profile shows that the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty decrease as the level of education of the household head increases: the incidence of poverty ranges from 70 percent for an illiterate head, to 56 percent for a head of household who has received primary education, to 29 percent for those who received secondary education (see paragraphs 60-63 and Table 7). Improving enrollment seems to reduce poverty in the long run. Niger's situation is catastrophic: a primary gross enrollment rate of 27 percent in 1993/94 places Niger among one of five countries in the world where primary enrollment is below 30 percent. Adult literacy is 14 percent, and secondary school enrollment is 7 percent. 128. Disparities exist between rural and urban areas, boys and girls, and poor and less poor children (see Figure- 8). Urban primary school enrollment is 68 percent-74 percent for boys and 61 percent for girls, varying from 59 percent for the urban poorest to 74 percent for the urban non- poor. In rural areas, primary school enrollment is 18 percent and the gender gap is more pronounced at only 12 percent enrollment of girls and half that of boys. The rural enrollment rate varies between 15 percent for the poorest and 21 percent for the highest income group. In Niamey, enrollment reaches 83 percent and differences between boys and girls are negligible. In the rest of the country, enrollment rates vary from 19 percent in Zinder to 45 percent in Agadez, with girls' 64 enrollment ranging from one-third to one-half that of boys (see Table 21). Slow growth has been achieved in primary enrollment from 20 percent in 1970 to 27 percent in 1993, with no discernible improvement in the gender differential (see Figure 9). Figure 8 Urban and rural gross primary enrollment by gender and expenditure decile 90 80 70 - U--Qpan- - AdO..O 60 50 Female 20 RuraL - 10 - - -.. Female 0 Ill IIII II 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Expenditure Decile Source: ENBC 1993. Table 21 Gross enrollment rates by gender and region, 1993 (in percent) Region Girls Boys Agadez 35 55 Diffa 18 43 Dosso 16 38 Maradi 14 32 Tahoua 13 37 Tillaberi 22 30 Zinder 12 27 Niamey 82 83 Niger 20 37 Source: ENBC 1993. Figure 9 Trends in gross enrollment rates by gender, 1970-92 40 30 25 20 1S ----Female 10 -DC-Male 5 ---Total Source: World Bank 1991. 65 The demand for education: the poor's perceptions 129. People interviewed in the PPA expressed strong reasons for wanting their children to attend school: * To find a good job, to help the family, and to guarantee children's future. * To obtain the benefits of literacy: "I suffer from being illiterate. If I go to the health center, I can't read my prescription," said a woman from Yantala. "Before, I sent my children to school to secure a better future. Now, with the way things have evolved, I think: to learn to read and write," said another. "For a man, it is necessary to know how to read and write," said a man from Tourakou. * To participate in the modern world. School "allows one to understand life," said a woman from Kourategui, and a man in Niamey explained that he sent two of his daughters to school "to be emancipated." "When my children are old enough, I will send them to school so they will have a broad knowledge, and if they succeed, a good role in society," said a man from Boukoki. * To keep children out of trouble. Children who go to school "have a better education, learn how to behave, are more open-minded; in the bush, they are wild," according to a group of men from Tounkarana, Keita. 130. Numerous factors inhibit enrollment, many of which influence the poor most strongly, reducing access to schools because of distance or affordability, or negatively affecting the family's cost-benefit calculation of the value of education. * Distance. The farther a child must walk to school, the less the likelihood of attending, especially in rural areas where distances may be great. * Direct cost and opportunity cost: The cost of sending a child to school is significant (see Table 22), and education expenditures are usually one of the first cuts made by a household in economic crisis. Urban households spend about CFAF 700 per person annually on education, compared with CFAF 100 for rural households, with very strong variations across poverty groups (see Table 23). The family must pay for fees, clothes, transportation, and meals, and loses the economic contribution children could make by begging or looking for food. Many mothers are unwilling to send girls to school because they lose an important resource to the household. "Mothers stay home and send their girls to the market in their place," explained a woman from Djambaili, Maradi. Parents need to devote time to supervising their children's homework, another indirect cost. "School is good, but you need to be able to afford it," said a man from Kourategui. * Relevance of education. The relevance of the school curriculum to daily life-especially in rural areks-is questioned by many. There are strongly held views that schools must teach practical skills that can be applied readily to household productive activities. Children are considered a part of the household's labor force, and the less directly useful education is considered, the less willing some parents are to pay for it. * School quality and children's success rates. Most schools lack books and supplies. One ten-year-old girl from Bardouga, Ouallan complained about "physical punishments, no lights to study by, the lack of paper, and hunger." The low quality of the education system and children's living conditions lead to high drop-out and repeat rates, raising the cost of attaining literacy and decreasing the return on school expenditures. * Low probability of getting jobs. Education does not guarantee a modem sector job, and so may not be a good investment for the family. "I prefer to send my children to the Koranic school because modern schools produce the unemployed. If children of wealthy families 66 are unemployed, the ones from poor families are even more sure to be," said a man from Yantala. "Today school has deviated from its objectives; our children's futures are not secured. If a child is expelled from school or drops out, he is lost," said a man. Only those who "succeed"-who manage to carry out their studies without too many repeats and without being pulled out for family reasons-will be able to seek waged employment. There is concern that educated rural children whose expectations of entering the urban, modem economy are dashed will reject the rural alternative: "Those who fail move back with us but no longer want to work the land," said a villager of Saban Machi, Maradi. * Traditional attitudes, especially towards girls. Girls drop out of school because household chores interfere with studying and marriages occur early. Traditionally, education reduced a girl's marriageability: "We keep girls home to get them married," said a villager from Dan Maigari, Maradi. However, this is changing: some girls are sent to school with thfe hope that they will find a job or, if they do get married, it will be to a "good husband"- an employed man. Traditional values and religious views lead a few families to send their children to Koranic schools, "to learn mercy and respect," and because it is "God's way." Table 22 Cost of schooling in urban areas Type of expenses Cost Public school Books Loaned for free Supplies, clothes 15,000 CFAF per year Transportation Walk to the neighborhood school Private school Books 15,000 CFAF per year Supplies 10,000 CFAF per year Taxi 10,000 CFAF per month Registration fee: Primary 25,000 CFAF per year Secondary 40,000 CFAF per year Lyc6e 11,000 CFAF per year Source: PPA 1994. Table 23 Household education expenditure indicators per year Localities Indicator Total Non-poor Poor Very poor Urban Budget share (%) 0.87 0.86 0.91 0.86 Education expenditure (CFAF) 4,735 6,430 2,735 1,940 Number of households 196,056 106,110 89,946 43,060 Total expenditure (CFAF million) 928 682 246 84 Rural Budget share (%) 0.32 0.34 0.29 0.2 Education expenditure (CFAF) 565 875 330 190 Number of households 969,227 412,173 557,054 289,262 Total expenditure (CFAF million) 548 361 184 55 Niger Budget share (%) 0.53 0.56 0.47 0.38 Education expenditure (CFAF) 1,265 2,015 665 415 Number of households 1,165,283 518,283 647,000 332,322 Total expenditure (CFAF million) 1,476 1,043 430 138 Source: ENBC 1993. 67 Education sector policies 131. In response to declining primary school enrollment rates in the earlyl980s, the Government developed an education strategy in 1988 that gave priority to halting and reversing the decline. The expansion of secondary and higher education was to be slowed, in the face of growing unemployment of secondary and higher education graduates. Primary expansion was to be financed through reallocation of resources and cost-effective uses of existing resources rather than an increase in the education budget. 132. There was initial success in implementing the strategy for primary education. Higher paid (institutrs) were limited to 19 percent of the teaching force, indemnities for teachers in administrative posts were abolished, double shifts were introduced in 139 urban classrooms, the nominal budget for student subsidies in higher education was reduced by 9 percent, and classroom construction costs were reduced by 50 percent between 1985 and 1989. The primary school enrollment ratio, which had declined from 25 percent in 1980/81 to 23 percent in 1984/85, increased to 29 percent in 1993/94, despite a 14 percent increase in the primary school age population. However, there was no slowdown in expansion at higher levels. Between 1985 and 1993, the secondary school enrollment rate increased from 5.8 percent to 7 percent and the higher education enrollment rate doubled from 0.5 percent to 1 percent. 133. After 1989 the education sector reform was stalled by opposition from the students' and teachers' union to double-shift teaching, scholarship reduction, and the abolition of the automatic recruitment of higher education graduates into the civil service. The new government reconfirmed its commitment to expand primary education and reintroduced double-shift teaching in 1993/94 in 207 classes; redeployed primary school teachers doing administrative tasks to classrooms; and hired about 700 primary school teachers in 1993. On the other hand, almost as many teachers were hired at the secondary school level as at the primary level in 1993, and at both levels a large share of the newly created posts were for teachers at higher grades, implying an unnecessarily large increase in the wage bill. A five-year plan was formulated and is being implemented to build 120 primary school classrooms annually, 84 percent in rural areas; hire 520 primary school teachers; expand double shifts; and increase a protected budget line-item for books and materials by CFAF 80 million each year. The tertiary scholarship budget is to be contained and reduced. Education sector spending 134. RECURRENT EXPENDITURES. In 1992 recurrent expenditures for education were about 21 percent of government current expenditures, virtually unchanged since 1985. Education expenditure rose from 3 percent to 4.3 percent of GDP between 1985 and 1992, implying a larger rise in total spending as GDP in 1985 had been the lowest in two decades. However, spending per student declined during the fiscal crisis and has not yet recovered to its 1981 level, not even in nominal terms. 135. The allocation of educational spending by level has hardly changed, despite the proclaimed shift in priority (see Table 24). The share of primary education in recurrent spending remains about 43 percent, compared to over 50 percent in other countries facing similar education issues.9 The most problematic trend is evident in Table 25: wages claimed an increasingly large 9. Ths figures are estimates because of the difficulty of sttibuting the MENESR wage bill to the categoi administratim primary school teache, sicondary school teachr and adult literacy. Ministry recosm clasidfy staff by qualification and not position of 68 part of recurrent expenditures. The wage share rose from 50 percent in 1985 to 63 percent in 1992 and the share going to higher education fellowships increased from 13 percent in 1985 to 17 percent in 1992, while expenditures on operations and maintenance decreased from 15 percent to 5 percent.0 Research in many countries shows that books, chalk, and learning materials are the most important and cost-effective inputs in raising the quality of education. These expenditures should not be cut. In primary education, the share devoted to wages has increased from 84 percent in 1985 to 96 percent in 1992. Although the situation has been compensated for by donors who have donated primary school materials, including textbooks, the failure of the government to contain expenditures on wages and fellowships is alarming and jeopardizes the quality of education by reducing the resources for in-service training. The increases in wages and fellowships have worsened inequity: a primary school teacher's starting salary is 20 times the median per capita income and a student's fellowship is 9.5 times the median income. Table 24 Recurrent expenditure in education by level, 1985 and 1992 (percent) Level 1985 1992 Administration 11 9 Primary 42 43 Secondary 25 26 Higher 22 22 Note: Excluding adult literacy and transfers to institutes other than the University of Niamey and ENA. Sources: World Bank 1986, World Bank 1992c, and MENESR, Ministry of Finance. Table 25 Recurrent expenditure in education by category of spending, 1985-92 (percent) Category ofspending 1985 1988 1992 Wages 50 60 63 Operations and maintenance 15 9 5 Higher education fellowships 13 11 17 Other transfers 22 20 15 Source: World Bank 1986, World Bank 1992c, and MENESR, Ministry of Finance. 136. INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES. Investments in education have been cut substantially in response to Niger's financial crisis. Just under 5 percent of all government investments in 1992 were allocated to education, almost all linked to the World Bank Primary Education Development Project. Although budgeted as investment, at least 30 percent of these funds go to recurrent expenditure items such as textbooks. 137. OTHER FINANCING. Apart from the national government, donors, local governments, NGOs, and parents contribute to education expenditures. Donors finance the bulk of the investment program, and donate textbooks and other education materials, usually to primary schools. Precise data on these gifts are not available, but their value amounted to at least CFAF 500 million in 1992-about twice the amount budgeted for primary school materials by the national government. Aggregate household direct expenditure on education is estimated at CFAF employment For example, in 1992, 12,287 staff are listed as primary education personnel by the DAAP, while records at the DEPD show that there are only 10,102 primary school teachers. DEPD and DAAP statistics show that among the remaining 2,187 people, about 154 are regional inspectors and assistant inspectors, 325 are qualified primary school teachers employed in central or regional administration, and about 460 are qualified primary school teachers posted in secondary schools. About 1,250 primary school teachers are unaccounted for. In the absence of better information, they were categorized as administrative personnel. 10. MENESR has accumulated so many arrears in operation and maintenance expenditures, especially electricity, water, and telephone, that it no longer bothers to budget these expenditures, despite continuing to use these utilities. These expenditures, if accounted for, would increase the operations and maintenance budget 69 1.5 billion--equivalent to 5 percent of government recurrent expenditures on education. Local government contributions are modest and pay for classroom maintenance. 138. INEQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES. Given that the primary school enrollment ratio is 18 percent in rural areas, where 93 percent of Niger's poor live, Niger's public funds for education are distributed extremely inequitably: they benefit very few poor children and are highly skewed towards urban, relatively better-off households. The 82 percent of rural children (about 900,000 children) not in school do not benefit at all from public education expenditures, while most of the 4,700 university students receive a fellowship of CFAF 35,000 per month- about 9.5 times the median per capita income for Niger. 139. At the national and local levels obstacles prevent expenditures earmarked for the poor from reaching their destination. The bargaining process that determines the use of public funds has enabled civil servants and students, who are educated, well-organized, and close to decisionmakers and the politically vocal, to protect their benefits at the cost of expenditures on textbooks, school construction, and school meals, which could benefit the rural poor. Unions are strong and confrontational. At the local level, civil servants and higher education students have presented themselves at the tax collector's office to claim their wages and fellowships, ensuring that these items get priority whenever there is cash in the vault. 140. The activities of Aide et action, the only NGO specializing in primary education in Niger, and of the donor-supported government school feeding program cantine scolaire, compensate for the inequitable incidence of public education spending (see Box 5). Aide et action has been active since 1988 and focuses on areas with a lower than average primary enrollment rate in three arrondissements, Loga, Filingue, and Ouallam. Its annual budget is about CFAF 250 million, 77 percent of which reaches its beneficiaries. Most expenditures go to classroom construction and distribution of materials, although some are spent on extension (14 percent) and on improving the quality of education (10 percent). Given the limited demand for education in rural Box 5 School feeding programs Many of Niger's villages are limited to a household head, his spouses, children, and relatives. These villages are often too small to justify a school. Children of these compounds have to travel long distances, often on an empty stomach, to the few large villages with a school. These distances can be so great that the only feasible way to attend school is for children to spend the week at school and to go home on weekends. This poses problems for parents to arrange for feeding and caring of their children in the school village and to bear the cost of not having their help for five days. In collaboration with the World Food Program, MENESR has created a school feeding program in districts where food security is an acute problem. In the Ouallam district, for example, twelve out of seventy-three schools have school feeding programs where some 1,300 children (18 percent of the primary school population) receive three meals a day from cantines scolaires. Children are selected from the poorest families. These feeding programs allow children to live in the school village for five days a week. In Guinebangou, the Association des parents d'Vlves said that without the school feeding program only the children of Guinebangou would come to school, while those from surrounding compounds would drop out. It is no surprise that schools in the Ouallam district with a cantine scolaire have a 40 percent higher population than that of the average school-144 pupils versus 101 in the average school. School feeding programs provide compensation to poor rural households for the opportunity cost of sending children to school. As the same time, they contribute to increasing rural enrollment rates while augmenting the pupil/teacher ratio. If these findings can be confirmed in a cost-benefit analysis of these programs, they could become a key feature of a poverty reduction strategy. Source: MENESR. 70 areas, Aide et action discusses its activities with parents sending children to school and tries to improve the relevance of skills taught. As a results, the organization is supporting schools to set up actvitis pratiques et productives (APP). These activities-school gardens, small livestock projects, cooking, and sewing-teach children how verbal and quantitative skills can be used to manage income-generating activities. The APP policy was embraced by the education ministry in 1985 but never implemented due to a lack of resources. The policy is popular with parents because it brings school closer to the reality of their lives. Recommendations 141. To provide poor people in Niger with the basic skills to improve their productivity, increase their income, and enhance the quality of their lives, primary school enrollment must be increased, especially for rural children and for girls and its quality improved. The following measures are recommended: * Priority should be given to rural schools when hiring additional teachers, rehabilitating old classrooms and constructing new ones, and allocating materials and supplies. Measures are under way: the Basic Education Sector Project finances construction or rehabilitation of 3,270 classrooms (most in rural areas) and 2.8 million textbooks, and the government is hiring 520 new primary school teachers annually. * An in-depth evaluation of the constraints which inhibit girls' enrollment should be undertaken and programs launched to increase girls' enrollment. Special attention should be given also toward monitoring progress of girls' enrollment. * Spending on textbooks and other teaching and learning materials must increase specially at the primary level. This (and the expansion in teachers and enrollment) implies an increase in the share of the education budget allocated to primary education. * Programs to enhance the quality of teaching and the relevance of skills taught in primary and lower secondary schools should be analyzed and considered. * If positive results are confirmed by a cost-benefit analysis, school feeding programs should become a key feature in poverty reduction strategy. 142. The Government's target is a 35 percent gross primary enrollment rate by 1999-2000. This would constitute a major achievement, but remains a limited goal. Even if the percentage of children attending primary school rose, the absolute number of children not attending would still continue to grow. Generally, an enrollment rate of at least 50 percent is considered crucial for education to have an impact on poverty reduction. Reaching this level would demand a bolder effort than currently planned. Health 143. Poverty and poor health are closely related. The poor suffer worse malnutrition and a higher incidence of disease, which interact and make each other worse. Malnutrition makes people more susceptible to disease and undermines recovery, while illness reduces appetite and the body's ability to absorb food, and thus exacerbates malnutrition. Not only do the poor suffer more ill health, they have less access to health care because of the distances they have to travel, as well as direct and indirect costs. The main diseases in Niger-malaria, measles, respiratory infections, and diarrhea-cause many deaths that could be prevented by common drugs which are either unavailable or unaffordable to the poor. Government resources for health go to high-priced 71 curative care and relatively cost-ineffective services provided through hospitals-services which are largely consumed by a small share of the population. Resources are not optimally allocated in support of primary health care objectives. People are Niger's principal asset and investment in human development-including widespread health gains-would be an efficient way to promote development of the Nigerien economy, reduce poverty, and directly and quickly improve human welfare. Sector overview 144. INDICATORS AND TRENDS. As the Poverty Profile has shown, Niger's life expectancy, infant and child mortality, maternal mortality, and malnutrition indicators are among the worst in the world. There have been improvements over time. Data for 1965 and 1989 show a 31 percent fall in mortality (the crude death rate fell from 29 percent to 20 percent) including a fall in infant mortality from 180 to 130 per thousand live births, with a concomitant increase in life expectancy from 35 to 47 years." However, progress has been less than in other Sub-Saharan African countries and seems to have stagnated during the past ten or fifteen years. The diseases with highest incidence and which contribute most to morbidity-malaria, measles, respiratory infections, diarrhea, and ophthamological diseases-are preventable or treatable, indicating the health care system's shortcomings. Safe water, sanitation, and prevention of communicable disease have a large impact on health and there is scope for public action in all three. Abysmal education and the low status of women exacerbate the poor health of the family and contribute to the high fertility rate of 7.4 children per woman. For all indicators, the distribution pattern is the same: rural areas are worse than urban, Niamey is best by a considerable margin, and there are wide regional disparities. 145. The prevalence of STDs is high (estimated at 20 percent among adults) and the incidence of HIV seropositivity is low but increasing. A recent small survey of pregnant women, female sex workers, and truck drivers revealed the prevalence rates shown in Table 26. Although HIV tends not to affect the poor more than the non-poor in most countries, with urban prevalence rates are usually about double those of rural areas), there are connections between HIV and poverty. First, sex workers are especially vulnerable and their prevalence rates are higher than the rest of the population. This is often an occupation of last resort, into which poor women with no economic alternative are forced. Their vulnerability is heightened by women's low status in general and the difficulty of insisting on clients wearing condoms. However in several countries it has been possible to help sex workers increase condom use. Second, migrant workers are vulnerable to contracting HIV. These are poor men who migrate to supplement their family income, often also exposing their wives and children to HIV upon their return. Third, other STDs are associated with an increased risk of contracting HIV and increased prevalence. To the extent that the poor's low access to health care and inability to afford treatment increase their prevalence of STDs, they will be more vulnerable to AIDS. Third, AIDS-related illnesses are likely to push afflicted families into poverty and to be devastating to poor families without savings for health care and burial costs. I1. These estimates are based on census data and differ from the DHS estimates shown in Table 17 and Figure 7. Such discepancies among sources are not unusual, and in Niger's case the sources are broadly consistent, given reasonable margins of error or variance due to different estination techniques and models. 72 Table 26 Prevalence of HIV and syphilis in selected groups Group HIV prevalence rate (A) Syphilis prevalence rate () Sample size Pregnant women 2.7 4.0 400 Female sex workers 15.4 26.5 253 Truck drivers 3.4 7.6 263 Source: Rdpublique du Niger, Minist6re de la Sant6 Publique 1993. 146. ACCESS TO AND QUALITY OF HEALTH CARE Only 30 percent of Nigeriens live within five kilometers of a health facility. Less than 50 percent of villages have a village health team- volunteers with at best two weeks of training and limited backup from the nurse at the nearest rural dispensary. Rural facilties are understaffed, with often only one nurse. In 1989 only 20 percent of births were in health facilities and only one-third of pregnant women received any prenatal care, with differences between rural and urban areas. Referral capacity is weak, staff morale low, and logistical and material support for lower levels of care is inadequate, often resulting in inappropriate or poor treatment of patients. There are chronic shortages of drugs because of administrative, logistic, and procurement inefficiencies in the pharmaceutical sector. Planning, management, and financing are over-centralized, and deployment of personnel is very uneven- more than 80 percent of medical and paramedical staff work in urban areas. This exacerbates the effect of very low health personnel/population ratios (see Annex 4). The poor 's perception of health care 147. Those interviewed in the PPA in urban and rural areas stress the importance of access to health services. Yet they emphasize that access is limited, availability of essential drugs in the health centers is poor, and the cost of health care can impoverish a household in the event of illness (see Box 6). Many have seen people die from the lack of health care or medicine. Often the poor, badly dressed and without money, are rudely treated by health personnel and are obliged to pay gratuities to get service. Health centers are dirty, in-equipped, and unable to offer basic care. 148. Transport costs are a major obstacle for rural people who do not live near a health center. Some consider going to a health center a waste of money and time because they can't afford the medicines prescribed. Almost all households interviewed had paid for a prescription at least once over the previous year. Modern treatment costs were reported as ranging from CFAF 2,300 to 100,000, and traditional care costs from CFAF 350 to 1,750. The money had been difficult to find, requiring incomes, family savings, the help of relatives, or loans. 149. MODERN VERSUS TRADITIONAL MEDICINE. Most of those interviewed fall back on self- medication, either using traditional plant remedies or modern medicines from Nigeria sold in their neighborhoods. Traditional cures are preferred for certain illnesses such as jaundice. But "for all illnesses which involve organismes" (meaning not of supernatural origin), modem cures are generally preferred. Traditional cures are considered less expensive and easier to find, although treatment can run into many thousands of francs. Among the illnesses mentioned by those interviewed in the villages, venereal diseases come up frequently. According to the villagers of Saban Machi, many people have been infected with syphilis "which bothers them a lot but they are too embarrassed to go to the health center," so they prefer seeking traditional treatment. Although this is consistent with the survey reported above it is indicative of the high level of untreated STDs. 73 Box 6 Health care is expensive Nothing is as expensive as a hospital stay: the care, the medicines, even the bed, if you are hospitalized, costs. There are a lot of inadequacies: a lack of medicine, specialists, health supplies, even the beds are inadequatel If you don't know someone, you are out of luck. The State should equip the health centers with supplies, oversee the training of health personnel, create a special center for the most deprived. -a group of young girls from Kourategui. Source: PPA 1994. 150. HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON HEALTH. In the aggregate, households spent about 17 billion CFAF in 1993 on health care-about 17 percent of public health spending. There is little difference in the share of household spending on health by level of poverty, although there is considerable variety in the amount spent-the non-poor spend four or five times as much as the very poor. Rural households spend twice as large a share of income as urban households-7.5 percent compared to 4.0 percent-although the CFAF amounts are very similar for the poor and very poor, but much higher for the urban non-poor than the rural non-poor (see Table 27). Table 27 Household health expenditure and indicators Locality Indicators Total Non-poor Poor Very poor Urban Budget share (%) 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.3 Health expenditures (CFAF per capita, per year) 3,100 5,000 1,500 900 Population 1,377,400 658,400 719,000 363,600 Total expenditures (CFAF million) 4,370.50 3,292.00 1,078.50 327.24 Rural Budget share (%) 7.5 7.2 8.2 8.1 Health expenditures (CFAF per capita, per year) 1,900 3,300 1,100 900 Population 6,922,200 2,371,900 4,550,300 2,461,200 Total expenditures (CFAF million) 12,832.60 7,827.27 5,005.33 2,215.08 Niger Budget share (%) 6.2 5.9 6.7 6.8 Health expenditures (CFAF per capita, per year) 2,100 3,700 1,200 900 Population 8,299,600 3,030,300 5,269,300 2,824,800 Total expenditures (CFAF million) 17,203.10 11,119.27 6,083.83 2,542.32 Source: ENBC 1993. 151. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON HEALTH: ALLOCATION AND TREND. As with most Sub- Saharan African countries, there is an inverted expenditure pyramid in Niger. Three-quarters of government expenditures on health are for expensive medical care that benefits a small minority of the population in urban areas. A high percentage of the poor and those living in rural areas are not reached by the health care system. The budgetary allocations are inefficient and inequitable. There is much room for improvement and cost savings in most hospitals, which would enable funds to be reallocated from hospitals to primary health care and from curative to preventive medicine- a shift that would improve access and health across the country. The recent transformation of national hospitals into Etablissements publics 6 caract4re administratif (EPA)n has given them greater financial autonomy and thus is prompting them to achieve greater efficiency. 12. In Niger, the Etablissment public 6 caractire administratif (EPA) is one of four types of autonomous public entities. Although EPAs are sometimes referred to as public enterprises in English, they are not of a commerical or industrial nature, they are not profit maximizing institutions, and should be considered public agencies that recceive a large share of subsidies. 74 152. Public expenditures on health have been relatively well protected during the fiscal crisis. Health's share of total expenditure increased from 4.2 percent in 1980 to 9.1 percent in 1990, dipped a bit in 1991 and then rose in the next two years (seeTable 28). The total amount allocated to health was largely protected from cuts in 1992, and grew considerably through 1994. Per capita spending has increased from CFAF 718 (about US$2.50) in 1980 to CFAF 1,550 (about US$5.50) in 1990, fell for the next three years, but was budgeted to rise to CFAF 2,235 per capita (about US$7.70 before the devaluation and US$3.85 after) in 1994. Table 28 Public health expenditures, 1991-94 (millions of CFAF) Public health 1991 1992 1993 1994 expenditures ad,al % stial 1-4 aaual % total 1-4 adal % total 14 Irojeand % tral 14 Recurrent expenditures 1. Wages 3,932 58.58 4,090 58.92 4,102 64.91 5,981 48.78 Number of staff (5,371) n.a. (5,534) n.a. (5,727) n.a. (6,022) n.a. 2. Equipment 2,229 33.21 2,279 32.83 1,611 25.49 3,997 34.32 Of which drugs/vaccines 1,006 14.99 1,348 19.42 943 14.92 2,961 25.43 3. Transportation 151 2.25 173 2.49 207 3.28 638 5.48 4. Student transfers 400 5.96 400 5.76 400 6.33 400 3.43 Total 1-4 6,712 100 6,942 100 6,320 100 11,646 100 5. Capital expenditures 3,097 n.a. 2,749 n.a. 4,632 n.a. 7,858 n.a. Total 1-5 9,809 n.a. 9,691 n.a. 10,952 n.a. 19,504 n.a. Total expenditures 110,700 n.a. 104,100 n.a. 101,600 n.a. na. n.a. Percentage of health sector 8.86 n.a. 9.31 n.a. 10.78 n.a. n.a. n.a. Source: World Bank 1994. Recommendations 153. The Government's health strategy presented in the Health Development Plan 1994-2000 (Plan de d6veloppement sanitaire 1994-2000) calls for: a) an increase in the share of health expenditures in the public budget; b) improving the quality and coverage of basic (priority) health services; c) improving sector efficiency and effectiveness through management strengthening and decentralization with an emphasis on resource mobilization through cost recovery and an increase in the share of the public budget for health, and a more equitable allocation of resources; d) improving the supply and distribution of essential generic drugs and making them more affordable to the population; and e) strengthening of partnerships in health including NGOs, universities, the private-for-profit sector, communities and unions. It aims to reallocate resources to address the four imbalances in the Niger health sector which weaken its efficiency: curative care versus preventive, hospital versus primary health care, cities versus rural areas, and regional disparities. Ten aspects of the strategy are critical for poverty alleviation: * Rural areas and areas with worst health problems coverage and infrastructure should receive priority for public investments and a larger share of current expenditures. Health personnel need to be redeployed to rural areas and incentives need to facilitate this. * Successful decentralization and community participation should render the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) more accountable to the people it is meant to serve. * During the fiscal crisis, the health budget has barely covered salaries, let alone other vital inputs. The potential exists to improve health care and the health of the public by ensuring an adequate budget and giving priority in its allocation to primary and preventive health care, especially immunization, public health information to households, STD prevention and care, family planning and nutrition services, pregnancy-related services, and care for the common 75 serious illnesses of children. Management and efficiency improvements are needed to make good use of resources. It is estimated that a comprehensive basic package of care can be provided throughout most low-income countries for about US$8 per person (although it may cost more in Niger because of the immense size of the country and its dispersed population). The planned increase in the total government budget is an essential prerequisite for even basic health care services in Niger. * Efficient procurement and distribution of essential generic drugs across the country should be a priority, to improve availability and keep costs as low as possible. The Government is taking steps to achieve this by implementing an Essential Drugs Program, reforming the drugs sector to increase the availability of drugs at an affordable cost, and reforming the system of procurement and distribution. Changes are sorely needed in the operations of the state-owned monopoly ONPPC, whose mandate includes procuring and distributing drugs. Procuring generic drugs through international competitive bidding instead of buying brand-name drugs from individual producers would dramatically lower the cost of meeting Niger's drug needs. * A law has been passed requiring cost recovery to be introduced country-wide. While it is recognized that cost recovery schemes help ensure sustainable health care delivery, an in-depth and rigorous qualitative and quantitative evaluation should be undertaken to assess its impact on the poor and exemptions should be put in place so as not to further reduce the poor's access to health care. There is evidence from many countries-including pilot trials in Niger-that cost recovery schemes improve service utilization if they incorporate improvements in service and care quality, such as better drug availability, staff upgrading and deployment, and extended hours. * The Ministry of Health's intention to encourage the efforts of partners in health care-NGOs, communities, academics, and others-is likely to benefit the poor particularly if successful, as many of these partners tend to target their activities to areas of greatest need. * National nutrition programs rely primarily on external assistance to operate-notably UNICEF programs in specific areas, which serve about 160,000 people, and smaller-scale NGO operations such as Caritas, which supported the production of a commercial weaning mixture. The most cost-effective of these efforts needs to be expanded and properly integrated into ministry programs. However, the health ministry's nutrition department budget is inadequate for embarking on such interventions. Expansion of the supplementary feeding programs for malnourished mothers and their young children, which operate through government health clinics using food provided by the World Food Program, should be pursued through MOPH partnership initiatives in both rural and urban areas. * Contingency plans should be developed to respond to public health emergencies, such as the meningitis outbreak in 1995, with rapid actions and public information. * More rigorous and routine monitoring of key health indicators-both process and impact- supplemented by operational research, beneficiary assessments, and periodic evaluations would enable MOPH to constantly learn from experience and improve its effectiveness in providing basic services to the poor. * Programs to provide universal access to safe water should be launched with community participation. Population 154. High population growth exacerbates poverty in Niger. Even with high mortality rates, very high fertility-an average more than seven live births per woman-makes the rate of population 76 growth 3.3 percent per annum, putting Niger among the fastest growing two or three countries in the world. The total population will increase from 8.3 million people in 1992 to 11 million by the year 2000, which will worsen the pressure on scarce land, food and water resources. The poverty profile shows that the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty increase with household size. Early starts to childbearing, short birth intervals, and large families drain women's health and energy, and stretch household resources, making it difficult to feed, clothe, and educate children, and trapping new generations into growing poverty. Attitudes are strongly in favor of large families, although there are some signs of change, especially among younger people. Family planning services are sparse, but the Government has recently taken initiatives to improve and expand them. Overview 155. LAWS AND INSTITUTIONS. Government support for family planning began in 1981, and since then gradual steps have been taken to develop a coherent program. In 1983 the National Center for Family Health was set up to promote birth spacing, sterilization, management of high- risk pregnancy, and reproductive education. In 1988, this responsibility was given to the Department of Family Planning, and an old French law forbidding sale and advertising of contraceptives was abolished. The new ordinance on contraceptive practice enabled adult women (and men) to obtain contraceptives freely, and allows minors to acquire contraceptives with parental or legal guardianship authority. Sterilization is allowed to women above 35 years of age with at least four living children (men must have six living children), or to women whose lives might be endangered by pregnancy. Abortion remains illegal and a cultural stigma. Responsibility for population planning, coordination, and monitoring was given in 1991 to the Ministry of Social Development, Population and Women's Promotion, and in 1991 a technical committee was convened to devise a national population policy. The National Family Planning Strategy (1988-93) and the Demographic Plan of Action (1991-95) spell out the government's priorities and strategies in population and family planning, which are to: (a) provide broader access to family planning services through an integrated maternal and child health care and family planning (MCH/FP) program; (b) reduce maternal and child mortality; (c) support programs to improve the status of women; and (d) improve demographic data collection and research to strengthen the national capacity for population policy analysis, program planning, management and coordination. 156. SERVICE DELIVERY. Family planning (FP) services are provided as part of the health ministry's maternal and child health services. Not only is access to public health facilities limited, but only 30 percent of them, most in urban areas, are able to provide FP services. The negligible private sector caters only to a small urban group, while two NGOs (Africare and Care International) are the only other sources of services. Now NGOs are being supported by donors in partnership with the Government. For example, US$0.5 million of IDA funds have been set aside for grants to NGOs, and USAID is also channeling funds for FP service expansion and demand creation through NGOs. Recently, International Planned Parenthood was able to hold a highly successful regional conference on women, Islam, and FP in Niger, which has helped their information and lobbying campaigns. Efforts are underway to expand service delivery in four ways: (a) training physicians and nurses in rural facilities to provide FP services and upgrading selected facilities; (b) training, equipping and supporting the village health volunteers to distribute contraceptives; (c) encouraging private pharmaceutical outlets to sell contraceptives; and (d) providing small grant funds to support NGOs venturing into activities and programs that would support the population program. 77 157. CONTRACEPTIVE KNOWLEDGE AND USE. The DHS found that more than three-quarters of women are familiar with contraceptives, but knowledge of traditional contraceptives is more widespread (65 percent) than knowledge of modem ones (58 percent). In Niamey, 21 percent of married women of childbearing age use contraceptives (this is the CPR or contraceptive prevalence rate), and most (17.3 percent) use modem methods. In other cities, the CPR is 14 percent, with 60 percent using modern methods. The national CPR is 4.4 percent and 2.3 percent for modern methods. Ninety percent of users get their contraceptives through the public health system. 158. ATITUDES. Attitudes toward family planning are changing, but still favor large families. Only 9 percent of women interviewed in the DHS didn't want more children and 77 percent of women wanted another child within two years. Family planning is considered a means to space births rather than to limit the number of children, and two years between births is considered sufficient spacing by most women. Younger and more educated women are more enthusiastic about FP. Uneducated women have a fertility rate of 7.5 and 33 percent have their first child before the age of twenty; women who completed primary education or above have a fertility rate of 6.3 and 21 percent are mothers by the age of twenty. 159. Several sociocultural factors underlie the desire for large families. Women's poor access to education and productive assets have already been noted. Traditional lineage and kinship systems, gender roles, and intergenerational relations all strongly favor more births. The low social status of women and lack of power in decisionmaking is changing very slowly. Fertility is a major determinant of women's status within the family and community. Polygamous marriages are common and childbearing is a source of power within the family. High rates of divorce and separation, coupled with the fact that women can gain access to assets such as land and some public services only through male relatives, increase women's willingness to bear many children so that they will have sons to turn to when husbands leave or die. High infant and child mortality rates, especially in rural areas, require many births to ensure a desired family size. Children's labor is highly valued, especially in rural areas. As water and wood become scarce and it takes longer to gather them, the domestic workload rises and women turn to children for help. Declining soil fertility and yields per hectare lead farmers to increase the acreage farmed or the labor input to maintain output. Couples consider their welfare to increase with additional births despite the costs. The poor's perception offamily planning 160. The PPA confirms the discrepancy in attitudes and access to FP services between urban and rural areas. Box 7 presents one urban woman's perception. In urban areas, men and women interviewed said that birth spacing was "good policy" and "necessary for women's and children's well-being." They understood the link between the number of children and family resources, noting that FP enabled them to educate the children better and ease the burden on the household. Women added that pregnancy inhibits their ability to work and increases fatigue. Negative attitudes persist among older men, however, and they note that FP is contrary to Islam. Men fear that women become infertile if they use contraceptives. In rural areas, even those who want to use FP are inhibited by distances to health centers. In Koulaye (Tahoua), women had heard of FP on the radio but complained that the centers are too far away. Women in Tolkoboye (Ouallam) said they prefer injections to pills. Some women say that migration has helped spacing occur naturally. 78 Box 7 A woman's view of family planning I am twenty-four years old and was born in Niamey. I went to school until the fifth grade. I am a housewife and after six years I got married. I have had three children, but the second died. The first is seven years old. My mother wasn't polygamous. But I do not censure this practice because I have two co-spouses and, before me, my husband has had other wives. I have already lived in a polygamous home during my first mamage. At that time, I had one co- spouse. I recognize that this was not easy for her. Afterwards, I got a divorce and remarried. Nowadays I do not have a problem with my co-spouses. At home, my husband is in charge of us-the food, the clothes and other family expenditures. Given that none of us works, he gives us money for our needs. I cannot say how many children I will have because this depends on God's will. I will accept any number of children that He gives me, yet I am not in a hurry. My youngest is four and I don't want to try for another one right now. Regarding my husband, he has many children, especially with the previous wives from whom he is divorced. I am sure I will have another child- childbearing is my primary responsibility. I took notice of all the contraceptive methods at the health center. They give me the pill for free, which I began taking forty days after my last child was born. But I never told my husband. Nevertheless, I think that contraception is a man's affair. Some men don't allow that their wives go to the family planning center. They say they can feed any number of children. As far as I am concerned, I don't want my children to live the same life I lived; I want them to have sex education. Especially the girls, I will tell them everything when they become teenagers. Source: FNUAP 1992. Recommendations 161. Action in providing and promoting FP services is important to reduce poverty within the family and across the nation. Smaller families ease the mother's childbearing and rearing burden, enable greater investments in each child's nutrition, health, and education, and give each child a greater potential for a healthy and poverty-free adulthood. At the national level, slower population growth makes social services provision less daunting and eases the pressure on scarce natural resources. 162. Much needs to be done to increase FP service supply and access and to promote demand for smaller families. Actions to lower infant and child mortality and to increase education levels, especially of women, are a crucial part of a strategy which may have multiple benefits. Government plans and efforts are in the right direction, but need strong commitment, funding, and expansion, especially in rural areas where most of the poor live and where FP access is most limited. FP services should be provided free of charge as cost-recovery measures are introduced. 163. The opposition of Islamic fundamentalists is an enormous barrier to FP expansion and many kinds of social progress which depend on the status of women. The passage of the Family Code has been blocked, leaving the legal status of women a contentious issue. Non-discrimination for women badly needs to be legally enacted as a basis for improvements in women's access to education, food, land, and other assets and services-including FP services-that would improve living standards and reduce poverty. 79 V Safety nets and social action programs 164. Safety nets and social action programs play an important role in a poverty alleviation strategy. Even countries with high rates of growth and well-functioning markets have not eliminated the need for governments and communities to assume some responsibility for the economic security of some members of society. Safety nets and social action programs protect vulnerable groups against increased poverty brought on by short-term calamities, seasonal effects or economic changes, and provide some minimal level of support to chronically poor groups who are permanently unable to provide for themselves, usually because of age, illness, disability or destitution. In Niger periodic droughts, chronic poverty, and the need to implement structural economic reforms, which often have adverse temporary effects, increase the need for safety nets and social action programs. Two target groups may be distinguished. One group has the potential to be self-supporting and appropriate measures will build on their survival strategies and help increase their productive potential. The other group needs permanent help, through transfers that supplement but do not supplant local and informal safety nets and redistributive mechanisms. Various informal mechanisms and coping strategies have been described in earlier sections, for example transfers among households of dependents or productive members; cash and food transfers among households; temporary migration of part or all of a household; and loans and savings and credit groups. This section reviews Niger's recent experience with formal safety nets and social action programs before making some recommendations. 165. During 1988-94, Niger implemented three social action programs and a number of food aid programs, whose structure, impact and available data on cost effectiveness are described below, as a first step towards evaluating them before committing future resources:' 1988: Job Creation and Private Initiatives Support Program (PAIPCE). 1991: Public Works and Employment Project. 1994: The Special Development Program (PSD). The Job Creation and Private Initiatives Support Program 166. The objective of the Job Creation and Private Initiatives Support Program (Programme d'appui & 1'initiative privge et d la crgation d'emploi (PAIPCE)) was to encourage individual entrepreneurial initiatives. It offered training and follow-up advice, and assistance in identifying funding sources and applying for loans to civil servants who voluntarily left the civil service, university graduates, and private entrepreneurs of small and medium-scale enterprises. It was managed by an administrative department in the Ministry of Public Service and Employment. Total financing of CFAF 3.168 billion was provided by four bilateral donors (the Netherlands, Japan, Kuwait, and Italy (47 percent), two multilaterals (IDA and the European Development Fund) (9 percent) and the Government of Niger (44 percent). 13. Thc term social action program is used for short-term measures in response to an economic crisiL Safety nets are usually penmanent or long-term programs to help people in persistent or temporary dire straits. These definitions are not consistently applied and used interchsngeably. 14. A fourth program, the donors' Alleviation Program of the Social Costs of Adjustment (PACSA) was launched in 1989. A Priority Action Program (Program d 'actions prioritaires) was never financed or implemented and so is not discussed here. 80 167. The PAIPCE assisted 417 civil servants, 9 university graduates, and 9 private sector entrepreneurs. An evaluation undertaken in 1992 by the program's management through a survey of 169 of the 324 entrepreneurs who had benefited from the training program in 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1991 found that 151 (89 percent) were still in business but 18 (11 percent) were unemployed. In terms of employment generation, 757 jobs were created, of which 564 (75 percent) were permanent and 193 (25 percent) were temporary. The evaluation found that support services provided by the program ended in the second and third years, which undermined its effectiveness. 168. The evaluation shows that the program was expensive and unsustainable. An average of CFAF 7.3 million in direct program costs was spent per beneficiary. If this is added to the severance pay of CFAF 7.6 million paid to each civil servant, the cost to the government and donors per job created was about CFAF 7.5 million, since each entrepreneur created on average two jobs. This calculation excludes investment funds for businesses that entrepreneurs raised through loans. Loan defaults by the entrepreneurs in the program were high: the rate of repayment was 37.5 percent by the first group and 70.5 percent by the second group, and only 2 percent of program beneficiaries did not default on their loans to some degree. 169. The least robust businesses, with the highest rates of failure were: * Businesses in the agropastoral sector. In 1990 22 percent of the entrepreneurs in this sector had stopped all activity because of the difficulties inherent in the sector, such as lack of fodder, and long distances to stock and food supply. * Businesses in the building and public works sectors. These entrepreneurs were unable to compete with larger businesses at a time of reduced state contracts. * Small service businesses such as processing and personal services, transit, and urban transportation. 170. Sectors where businesses had better success rates were: * The health sector where professionally qualified people opened medical practices, clinics, and pharmacies. There was little competition, low investment requirements and high unsatisfied demand from the public and the modem sector businesses which had begun to seek private medical care and coverage for their employees. * Import-export trade, where the largest number of entrepreneurs operated, despite competition from the informal sector and the fall in disposable incomes and living standards. * The education sector where there is high unsatisfied demand. These ventures were affected, however by teachers' strikes which disrupted education and affbcted the payment of student scholarships from the Government which are the main income source for private schools, and by long delays in government payments of subsidies to private schools. The Public Works and Employment Project 171. The Public Works and Employment Project began in 1991 and so far has received funding of nearly CFAF 32 billion, of which 66 percent was in IDA credit funds (through various projects), 27 percent was grant funding from Germany, France, the EC, Canada, Luxembourg, and OPEC, and 7 percent was contributed by the Government of Niger. The objectives were: (a) to rapidly create employment in urban areas using the private sector, providing jobs and opportunities 81 for skills acquisition; (b) to build infrastructure in a more labor-intensive, efficient and cost- effective way; and (c) to foster competition and stimulate business for local private-sector firms. A small part of the funds were devoted to training for ministry and local authority staff, private- sector engineers and contractors, and workers. Implementation experience 172. Under the program, municipalities, the central government and some donors contract with a specially created executing agency entitled Agence nig6rienne de travaux d'intgrgt public pour 'emploi (NIGETIP), to manage the funds and their use for urban infrastructure rehabilitation and provision. Project ideas are submitted by local authorities, which NIGETIP accepts to fund if they meet a set of eligibility criteria. Proposed works must allocate at least 20 percent of total costs for labor, be able to start work within three months, not have any other prospective financing, take at least two weeks to complete, and be accompanied by a letter of commitment stating that maintenance costs have been budgeted and will be met. In choosing among proposals, NIGETIP gives priority for those with higher labor costs and greater social usefulness, and tries to get a good spread across the country. It also carries out feasibility and cost studies." Individual projects are put out for competitive bidding, no matter how small the contract, which has ensured the efficient use of resources (construction costs were often lower than budgeted). Contracting firms are hired, supervised, and paid by NIGETIP. Cash wages are paid at prevailing market rates, which may be below the official minimum wage in the case of unskilled manual labor. 173. More than 90 percent of subprojects completed have been small infrastructure works, including construction of primary school classrooms, health clinic and hospital infrastructure repairs, sanitation works (public showers and latrines), paving streets, construction and repair of drains, and construction and rehabilitation of markets and bus terminals. 174. NIGETIP's performance has been excellent; NIGETIP has completed or has under way CFAF 15 billion in construction or rehabilitation works and CFAF 1 billion in training and other services. Close to 25 percent of funds have been spent on wages, indicating high labor intensitiveness in the works funded. During the first two years, 29 percent went to wages, but increased costs of imported materials recently claimed a higher share. Efforts are being made to use more local materials to reduce costs. Many subprojects have been or are being executed by small contractors in the eight departments in Niger. The average cost per job has been CFAF 44,775 per job created-low compared with other job-creation programs in Niger. Average construction time has been 59 days. In addition, NIGETIP has operated efficiently: overhead costs have been 3.5 percent, contractors and consultants have been paid within a week, and audits have been timely. Program impact 175. The NIGETIP program has been successful in attaining its objectives of creating jobs in urban areas through labor-intensive projects and rehabilitating urban infrastructure efficiently and cost-effectively. It was a major provider of jobs: it provided 49,863 days of work in 1991; 234,175 in 1992, and 348,392 in 1993. Employment generation increased seven-fold in the first 15. Eligibility criteria have recently been changed for works funded by World Bank credit funds, to include only environmntal and sanitation works. Previously, a much wider range of infrastructure was undertaken. Other donors have agreed different criteria with NIGETIP. 82 three years of operations. Analysis by category of workers (see Table 29) shows that more than half the jobs created were for manual laborers, many of whom are likely to have migrated from rural areas and to be among the urban poor. However, the impact on poverty has been small in relation to needs. Not all beneficiaries are poor, and less than 15 percent of Niger's poor live in the cities. The program continues to receive enthusiastic donor funding and to perform a useful and efficient function in urban areas. Efforts are being made to ensure a more equitable spread of activities around the country: donors have earmarked some of their funds for the northwest area of the country, and NIGETIP has been making efforts to solicit proposals from small urban areas in Tillaberi, one of the poorest districts. Discussions are underway as to whether the concept could be adapted and extended to rural areas. To achieve economies of scale and efficiency to enable overhead costs to remain below 5 percent, it is estimated that NIGETIP (or a similar agency which might operate in rural areas) would need to handle works totaling at least US$10 million per year. The smaller the range of types of works undertaken, the more efficient and effective the program is likely to be. A similar program operates in rural areas in Senegal and could provide insight into the feasibility of extending the program to Niger's rural areas. Table 29 Workers employed by NIGETIP Employment Category 1991-92" 1993 1994 1995 Total Percent Manual labor 3,703 5,204 6,750 5,975 21,632 55 Specialized workers 936 1,676 2,455 2,246 7,313 19 Qualified workers 609 1,226 1,824 1,610 5,269 13 Technicians 945 1,297 1,115 1,100 4,457 11 Engineers/managers 104 156 160 158 840 2 Total 6,297 9,559 12,305 11,089 39,250 100 a. Six test projects were executed in 1991. Source: NIGETIP database. The Special Development Program 176. Following the devaluation of the CFAF as part of government economic reforms, France created the Special Development Program (PSD) to help African countries in the franc zone to mitigate the negative effects of reforms on vulnerable groups, especially in urban areas. This fund relied on local initiatives to design projects in infrastructure, education, and health in urban areas that would raise living standards. Projects should be labor-intensive and should fund income- generating activities through user fees that will pay for future project operation and maintenance. 177. Niger received FF 20 million (CFAF 2 billion) under this program. A small management group, which included representatives from the Government and France, selected the subprojects. Most were implemented by NIGETIP, with some NGO involvement. Works ranged in value from CFAF 110 million to CFAF 2 billion and included construction of markets, bus terminals, street paving and extensions, sanitation blocks, craft workshops, and cereal banks. Like the Public Works and Employment Project, PSD was not a poverty reduction measure because it is concentrated in urban areas and was not implemented in lower-income areas. It was an efficient channel, however, for external funds and used them in a labor-intensive manner. 83 Food aid programs 178. Several programs in Niger provide food aid to people structurally or temporarily food- insecure, including nomads without cattle, small agricultural farmers unable to produce food to meet their daily requirements, and the urban unemployed. 179. There are five delivery mechanisms in Niger for food aid which reach different target groups: (a) school feeding program-cantines scolaires-which provide meals to 300 schools to 20,000 primary students; (b) health centers, which provide supplementary food to malnourished children, mothers, and infants; (c) an NGO (Caritas) which distributes food to the needy in Niamey; (d) food-for-work programs managed by the Government and NGOs, which use food (sometimes supplemented with cash) as a wage for working on public infrastructure, such as reforestation and sand erosion protection, mostly in rural areas; and (e) cereal banks, which allow farmers to "deposit" crops and receive cash loans against their deposits, which they repay by selling grain "withdrawn" from the food bank later in the year when food prices rise. The cereal bank can either store the food or monetize it and then replenish its food stocks later in the year to meet "withdrawals." The donors for these food aid projects are the Deutsche Gesellschaft fir Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), the European Development Fund, and the World Food Program (WFP). The WFP gave about US$50 million in food aid in Niger between 1991 and 1994. Small NGOs run local projects and the Government manages many public works programs that use food as payment. 180. Partial evaluations of specific programs and projects exist but no comprehensive evaluation has been written (Webb 1992b). Data suggest that the low wage rates make most programs successful in targeting the poor. In urban areas, unemployed men tend to head the queues for work and crowd out women when there are not enough jobs for all. Most workers in rural areas are women and children from poor households; the work tends to be offered in the dry season when men migrate to earn higher rates. In households where adults participate in food programs, ironically, the children have poorer nutritional statuses than in other households, perhaps because the adults have less food preparation time or have to eat more food to work. Total employment impact has been significant: no aggregation has been done but an incomplete estimate in 1991 that was at least US$150 million in funds paid for 22 million work days. These programs were expanding and were well regarded by donors, government, and beneficiaries. 181. There are difficulties with food-for-work programs. In addition to being labor-intensive, they need high inputs of management, capital, materials, and logistics-especially to transport food and materials. These complementary inputs are often underestimated and timely food deliveries have proved problematic. Consultation with communities and technical evaluation of works are not common. There is a significant role for these programs to play as part of an poverty reduction strategy, especially because of their multiple benefits. An estimate of costs and returns would be useful in selecting among competing programs. Although costs and benefits are not straightforward to measure, a standard methodology and set of assumptions could be devised and applied across programs to ensure consistent and comparable estimates. Conclusion 182. Government financial and managerial resources are constrained and donor resources fmite whereas the need for safety net and social action programs to transfer income and deliver 84 food aid is immense. The experience of programs in Niger and elsewhere needs to be closely scrutinized so that resources can be channeled in an efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable way. Another criterion for choosing among programs is success in targeting beneficiaries with good coverage and minimal leakage. Local involvement in selecting activities and beneficiaries, guided by clear criteria, has improved program effectiveness in other countries. NGOs, including religious organizations, have helped implement services, reducing overhead costs and simplifying administration and management. Programs must include monitoring systems that provide feedback to enable sound decisions to be made about continuing, changing, enlarging, or ending programs, so that scarce resources can make as great an impact on poverty as possible. 85 VI. Toward an action plan for poverty reduction This chapter outlines the characteristics of the process of designing the Niger poverty reduction action plan and provides a matrix of actions, based on the policy and program recommendations made in the report. It is expected that the proposed actions will be discussed with the Government, with support from donors, NGOs, and others within and outside Niger who are committed to helping reduce and mitigate poverty. Efforts will be made to ensure that representatives of the poor are full participants in designing the action plan and will be key actors in its implementation. The problem is huge and resources are scarce, so clear priorities and difficult choices will have to be made. Poverty alleviation efforts must be monitored and adjusted periodically. Success will depend on strong, sustained government commitment, including sound macroeconomic and social policies, partnership among interest groups within Niger, long-term financial and other support from donors and favorable external conditions. Developing a poverty action plan 183. The government's aim is to develop a detailed poverty reduction action plan. It is expected that the government will lead this effort and will receive support from donors, NGOs, and others within and outside Niger who are committed to reducing and mitigating poverty. The World Bank is ready to provide analytical and financial support for a sound, detailed poverty reduction action plan. It is hoped that the matrix of actions will provide an input to such an action plan and will launch the definition of key priorities. 184. Representatives of the poor must be full participants in the process of defining an effective action plan. Most countries have little experience with participation by beneficiaries, but those that have taken this bold step have found it well worth while. The poor know their own situation, constraints, and needs better than anyone else, as seen in the participatory poverty profile in this document. They react to crises using traditional coping mechanisms that should be protected. Their participation in the task force or other planning body will help to ensure that a poverty action plan is effective and appropriate. Often, simple local solutions can be identified, or potential problems spotted and avoided at the planning phase. In Niger, the recent democratization and movement towards decentralization provides an excellent environment for strong community involvement in planning and implementation. Several NGOs and organizations have experience with participatory methodologies and could help achieve active and meaningful participation by legitimate representatives of the poor. The action plan should articulate how local communities can be involved and empowered in the design, implementation, and evaluation of the poverty alleviation strategy. 185. Poverty alleviation will be an important part of the agenda of the planned Round Table on poverty to be held in late 1996. If there is general consensus on a framework and broad outlines of a poverty strategy in the context of the country's growth strategy, one way to proceed may be for a working group or task force to use the recommendations in this present document and in the preparatory document to the Round Table to describe specific activities, calculate their costs- 86 including all aspects of implementation-and define the target outcomes and a set of indicators for monitoring progress. The proposed matrix of actions provides some inputs for this process. Financing the poverty action plan 186. Poverty in Niger is pervasive and resources are scarce, so priorities and difficult choices have to be made. It is, therefore, extremely important to estimate the expected costs and benefits and hence the cost-effectiveness of activities and programs under consideration, in order to choose those that will make the biggest impact on poverty for the resources required. Estimating costs and benefits and assigning monetary values to them can be extremely difficult. However, even when these estimates are rough, if a consistent methodology is used it should be possible to categorize proposed activities and see which should be rejected and which should be pursued. Moreover, the attempt to estimate cost-effectiveness should sensitize decisionmakers to the importance of making rational choices and tradeoffs in order to use constrained resources effectively. 187. Implementing a poverty reduction action plan will be a challenge in itself. The implementation should draw on every segment of Nigerien society. It should benefit from the involvement of partners at every stage in the design and implementation of the plan. The Government should recognize that, although it is the main provider of funds, communities, NGOs, and civil society play a potentially capital role in the definition, implementation, execution, and follow-up actions necessary to reduce poverty. The action plan will be thus largely defined according to those who participate in its definition and those committed to its implementation. 188. It will be necessary to ensure that all the resources needed for implementation are available. Sources of funding and other resources need to be clearly identified. Activities would need to be phased so that they could be implemented within binding resource constraints. Even when donors make grants or other concessionary financing available, there are almost always additional funds and other resources that the Government will need to provide. The poverty action plan should avoid the problem experienced in the past with many projects and programs that have been delayed because these local contributions have not been available. Good detailed planning is needed, with strong participation by the Finance Ministry to ensure that planned government contributions are realistic commitments. Timetables for all activities should be drawn up. The greater the detail of the poverty action plan, the more likely it is to be well implemented. The implementing agencies for each activity should take the lead in planning detailed timetables of specific activities. 189. Financing an action plan against poverty in Niger will require large contributions from the donor community, which, in the case of Niger, are certainly justified because of the high level of poverty. The assurance of aid flows, however, is dependent on the international community's perception of the Nigerien Government's commitment to poverty alleviation, particularly through its allocation of public expenditures. Targeting the poverty action plan 190. Most programs and activities will be implemented only in parts of the country and will benefit only some people. Targeting methods need to be decided in order to channel benefits to the intended beneficiaries and keep leakage of benefits to the non-poor as low as possible. Geographic targeting by district, area, or village to where poverty levels are highest could be facilitated by the use of poverty maps to identify these areas. The income and expenditure survey (ENBC) has 87 identified the geographic incidence of poverty and some of its correlates and can be used to select and prioritize areas where activities should be concentrated. 191. A poverty action plan needs to target the various groups of people affected by poverty and to define the interventions that would be most effective for them. Based on the analysis in Chapter II, several poverty groups and potential actions can be outlined: * The destitute, with very low levels of nutrition and no assets or work, may depend entirely on gifts and charity. They include handicapped people, street children, and ill and elderly people without families to care for them. Their numbers are not known. Social safety nets and welfare measures are needed, but issues of affordability must be faced. * An estimated 2.1 million extremely poor people who suffer chronic food insecurity. Most are farmers with little land and no animals. An additional 1.2 million poor people also have insufficient food in most years, but have slightly higher incomes and assets. These groups need supplementary food and better access to social services, and other measures that improve their employment opportunities. * People who succeed in meeting their food requirements in an average year may still be vulnerable to drought and other crises. Sound macroeconomic and agricultural policies will help promote economic opportunities for them. Expanded access to social services will also improve their well-being. Safety nets and programs to support traditional coping mechanisms could help them through crises. * The nomadic peoples, who were not covered in the surveys, have strenuous lives and suffer terribly during drought. Their lifestyles make it difficult to deliver health, education, and other services. The nomads need to be consulted and to participate fully in designing and implementing appropriate targeted poverty alleviation programs. Monitoring poverty 192. A simple system for monitoring the impact of interventions on the poor over time is important to provide rapid feedback to policymakers and financiers on how well programs are reaching their intended beneficiaries. A monitoring system also reports on how scarce resources are being used and provides information to improve future policies and program design. 193. The objectives of a poverty monitoring and analysis system are: (a) to monitor the levels and trends of poverty in Niger to evaluate overall progress; (b) to characterize and analyze poverty by region (urban, rural) gender, income source, socioeconomic group and other socioeconomic variables to forecast the impact of macroeconomic policies and to design targeted programs, (c) to assess the poor's access to education and health services, including fanily planning and nutrition services, to targeted programs, such as school feeding, food aid, and NIGETIP, and to economic infrastructure, such as credit, agriculture extension services, and to analyze the determinants of access to improve policy and program design and public resource allocation; (iv) to analyze and monitor over time the poor's assessment of their situation and to incorporate their perceptions into policy design and ensure understanding of the policies that affect them; and (v) to report on food and other crises in order to take necessary action. 194. INFORMATION REQUIRED. A judicious combination of nationally representative, large- scale income and expenditure household surveys-such as the Enquete national sur le budget et la consommation des m6nages au Niger (ENBC), small, one-time surveys, routine administrative 88 records on health, education, and agriculture extension, and qualitative assessments, such as the PPA can supply the data needed. In Niger, as in many countries, there has been considerable data collection but processing, analysis, and use need strengthening. There is little point in collecting more data than there is capacity for processing, analyzing, and disseminating them. A clear plan for how data will be analyzed and used is important before they are collected. Small, one-time surveys have been carried out with success, probably because they have responded to requests for specific information. Efforts have been made and more are needed to improve the speed, quality, and accuracy of administrative data collection and processing-including data on public expenditures on health and education. 195. PROPOSAL FOR POVERTY MONITORING AND ANALYSIS UNIT IN NIGER. To encourage a broad-based dialogue on poverty and to continue the analytic work, it would be useful to institutionalize an annual review of poverty levels and trends in Niger and of the Government's poverty reduction strategy, including monitoring progress in meeting targets and objectives. These tasks could be done by an existing unit (for instance within the Service d'alerte pr6coce (SAP), which would need to be strengthened, or by a new unit established for this purpose. The main tasks of the unit would be to produce an annual report on poverty levels and trends in Niger and to ensure wide dissemination and use of the findings. It would: (a) assess the needs of policymakers and others concerned with poverty analysis or programs for studies and qualitative and quantitative information, (b) review, revise, and design data collection and analysis to meet these needs, taking into account existing information, (c) organize an annual workshop in which data producers and users would present and review the report; (d) prepare a synthesis of results relevant to policymakers in defining poverty reduction measures; and (e) disseminate the annual report through various media, including a presentation to the National Assembly. Matrix of actions 196. The following matrix summarizes the key messages and the policy and program recommendations concerning poverty made in this report and those that have arisen from discussions between the Government of Niger and the World Bank. It will serve as a basis for discussion with the Government and other development partners. The matrix presents an ambitious agenda which, if successfully implemented, would reverse the decline of poverty. 197. The matrix is designed in four columns: objective, strategy and action, indicator, and key actors. In the first column, five broad objectives have been identified and described as key areas of intervention for the poverty reduction agenda. Strategies and actions have been recommended as key tasks to undertake to make progress in one of the five objectives. Some of the recommendations in "strategy and action" are relevant for more than one objective but have been placed under the objective where they could potentially be the most effective. It is hope that as the detailed agenda evolves with increased participation from Government and development partners and becomes a full-fledged poverty action plan, it will include targeted outcomes that can be measured statistically using the following four indicators: number of poor, poverty indices, Gini coefficient, and the poverty profile. Each indicator should be calculated, where possible, by gender, region, and expenditure level and should form part of the poverty monitoring and analysis system. 89 Matrix of the Proposed Niger Poverty Reduction Action Plan Objecdive Strate and action Indicator Key actors Macroeconomic policies: The macroeconomic objectives are to further stabilize the economy and to foster an economic environment conducive to sustainable, labor-intensive growth. Such an environment is prerequisite to poverty reduction. Promote * Establish financial viability by realizing a surplus of * GDP, GDP per capita Minister of Finance, macroeconomic primary balance budget by improving resource * Consumer price Central Bank, stabilization and mobilization and public expenditure management indices Parliament, structural reform * Pursue monetary and financial policies consistent with the o Budget deficit private sector, unions, macroeconomic objectives-in particular, formulate a (excluding grants) World Bank, IMF financial sector development strategy 0 External current- * Promote the diversification of exports through tax and account deficit tariff harmonization and tax consolidation; promote (excluding official regional integration by adopting a common external tariff transfers) for the Union mon6taire ouest-africaine member countries * Debt service ratio * Improve the targeting, efficiency, and implementation rate (percentage of export of the Public Investment Program of goods non-factor * Continue to encourage market determination of producer services) and consumer prices * Share of wage bill in * Stimulate private-sector activity through the liberalization tax revenue of the labor market and commercial law and the * Public investment as strengthening of the financial sector to ensure the supply share of GDP of credit . Share of public * Improve public-sector efficiency while controlling costs expenditure on and staffing; reform the structure of wages education * Restructure the public enterprise sector to improve its e Share of public efficiency expenditure on health Rural development: Rural development is a cornerstone of the poverty reduction strategy because of the dominance of agriculture as a source of incomnefor the poor, the prevalence of food insecurity, and the disparity between urban and rural incomes. Increase * Develop and disseminate agricultural technologies e Agricultural Minister of Rural agricultural appropriate for rainfed farming production and Development and productivity a Stop and reverse the degradation of agricultural land productivity Environment, using well-known, effective low-cost measures * Various crops' local governments, 0 Improve exploitation of the country's irrigation potential production and communities, including traditional irrigation productivity professional groups, * Diversify agricultural output and grow more high-value o Area irrigated NGOs, crops t Livestock indices donors * Increase animal husbandry productivity and exports of live * Extension delivery animals and meat indicators * Ensure that extension workers have sufficient logistics to ( Kilometers of rural deliver programs effectively roads maintained * Complement the primary road network action plan with a rural road investment program in the poorest regions Improve food * Set up local grain markets 0 Malnutrition rates Minister of Rural security and * Strengthen liberalization measures to allow local and a Household food Development and nutrition export markets to funrction better insecurity indicators Environment, * Improve the management of the national emergency food o Ratio of food local governments, reserve agriculture communities, * Strengthen the early warning and disaster response production to food private sector, * Improve nutrition information to communities and deliver requirements NGOs, I in-service training to health care workers o Food aid level donors 90 Objecive Straegy and adion Indicator Key actors Foster alternative * Promote small rural enterprises Banking system, sources of * Provide direct employment through labor-intensive public private sector, employment work schemes, using a NIGETIP-type approach NGOs, donors Improve the * Improve security of land tenure by implementation of the Minister of Justice institutional Rural Code and Human Rights, framework * Empower rural stakeholders Minister of Rural * Promote successive decentralization to rural villages Development and Environment Human resource development: Investing in education, health, family planning, and improving the social and economic status of women will increase returns to labor, improve health and nutrition, and lower fertility. Increase girls' * Increase the share of public expenditures on primary * Share of education Ministry of Education, primary education expenditure on local governments, enrollment 0 Ensure that 90 percent of new classrooms are built in primary education communities, Increase primary rural areas and in rural areas NGOs, enrollment in * Deploy new teachers in rural areas * Primary enrollment donors, rural areas * Increase expenditure per-pupil rates * Increase the amount of expenditure on books and writing * Girls' enrollment materials rate * Improve the quality and relevance of curriculum * Beneficiary * Expand school feeding programs assessment on quality and relevance of teaching * Number of children benefiting from school feeding programs Improve the * Increase health budget, giving priority to primary and * Share of health Ministry of Health and quality and preventive health care expenditure on Social Affairs, coverage of basic e Increase coverage in rural areas primary health care local governments, health services * Increase decentralization and community participation * Share of health private sector, * Improve the availability of essential generic drugs expenditure on rural NGOs, donors * Introduce cost recovery throughout the country areas * Encourage partnerships with NGOs, communities, * Infant and child academics, and others mortality rates * Expand supplementary feeding programs and other * Immunization rates nutrition programs * Maternal mortality * Improve emergency response time and information e Life expectancy dissemination * Drugs consumption * Increase access to safe water * Access to safe water Reduce * Increase access to health facilities with family planning * Population growth Ministry of Health and population growth services rate Social Affairs, * Increase the number of health facilities that provide * Fertility rate local governments, family planning services * Contraceptive communities, * Encourage social acceptance of family planning prevalence rate religious groups, * Expand educational and social opportunities for women to private sector, reduce desired fertility demand NGOs, donors Remove * Enact the Family Code and eliminate discriminatory laws * Gender indicators Ministry of Justice discrimination * Facilitate womens access to land, capital, education, and and Human Rights, against women technical expertise Ministry of Social Development, Population, and the 91 Objective Strat i and action Indicator Key actors Promotion of Women, NGOs, communities, donors Social action programs: Social action programs and social funds protect vulnerable groups from short-term calamities, seasonal effects or economic changes, and provide a minimal level of support to the chronically poor, the disabled, the elderly, and the infinn, often with the help of local public and private organizations, including NGOs. Protect vulnerable * Implement NIGETIP to produce labor-intensive public * Number and Ministry of Equipment groups and offer works, especially in rural areas socioeconomic and Infrastructure, labor-intensive * Design and implement targeted social action programs characteristics of local gouvernments, works with the help of intended beneficiaries, NGOs, and local people assisted private sector, groups religious groups, * Improve food aid programs'efficiency communities, L _NGOs, donors Poverty monitoring and analysis: A strong, reliable, national monitoring and analysis system enables policymakers to understand the poor and to evaluate, over time, the impact ofpolicies and programs and to design appropriate future policies and programs. Support and * Establish a Poverty Analysis Unit including a multi- * Publication of the Ministry of Finance encourage poverty sectoral steering committee annual report on and Plan, monitoring * Design and implement a household survey program which poverty Central Statistical includes qualitative assessments and a poverty study Office, program research centers, * Produce and disseminate an annual report on poverty donors * Develop a training program in poverty analysis Concluding comments 198. Success in reducing poverty in Niger will depend on strong, sustained government commitment, including sound macroeconomic and social policies, favorable external conditions, partnership among interest groups within Niger, and long-term financial and other support from donors. The stronger and more consistent the Government's commitment is to sound economic and public management and the fight against poverty, the more willing others will be to lend their support to a poverty action plan. There is little to be done about external conditions except to anticipate and ty to mitigate their impact with sound policies and programs. The existence of many potential partners and interest groups can be a source of great strength. If a joint effort (front commun contre la pauvreti) could be put in place which included the Government and the administration from central to local levels, unions, the private sector, communities and organizations of civil society, local and international NGOs, multilateral and bilateral donors, and the development banks, this would be a powerful and resourceful coalition that could do much against poverty in Niger. Niger's development partners must be prepared to stay and offer support for a considerable time to come, as the magnitude of the problems are great and the solutions can only be implemented slowly. 199. No one expects a miracle, and poverty will not disappear in Niger in the foreseeable future. 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Working Paper No. 3 for the Niger Poverty Assessment, World Bankl, Africa Technical Department, Washington, D.C. . 19941. Gender Relations in Niger. Working Paper No. 6 for the Niger Poverty Assessment, World Bank, Africa Technical Department, Washington, D.C. .1994m. Niger: Food Security Strategy: Integrating Poverty Reduction and Growth. World Bank, West Central Africa Department, Agriculture and Environment Division, Washington, D.C. . 1994n. Niger: A Study of the Public Expenditures in the Health Sector. Draft paper prepared by Astrid Helgeland, World Bank, West Central Africa Department, Washington, D.C. . 1994o. Poverty in Colombia. A World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. . 1994p. Les Programs sociaux existants. Working Paper No. 5 for the Niger Poverty Assessment, World Bank, Africa Technical Department, Washington, D.C. .1994q. Reversing the Spiral: The Population, Agriculture, and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, Directions in Development, Washington, D.C.: World Bank. . 1994r. Special Program ofAssistance Status Report for Niger. Document prepared for the April 1994 Multidonor Meeting. World Bank, Washington, D.C. . 1995a. A Strategy to Promote Agricultural Growth. World Bank, West Central Africa Department, Agriculture and Environment Division, Washington, D.C. 101 . 1995b. Status Report on Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: Incidence and Trends of Poverty. World Bank, Africa Technical Department, Human Resources and Poverty Division, Washington, D.C. . 1996. Niger Public Expenditure Review Process: Issues Paper, World Bank, West Central Africa Department, Agriculture and Environment Division, Washington, D.C. World Food Program. 1993. Profil de stratigie du pays Niger. Rome. 102 Annex I Methodology of the participatory poverty assessment in Niger 1. The participatory poverty assessment (PPA) in Niger is a qualitative study that seeks to describe the living conditions of the most underprivileged segments of the country's population as perceived by the population itself, as well as to identify the population!s own poverty standards and describe strategies for survival and adaptation. The research method is based on a rapid appraisal in the field and makes use of several qualitative techniques, such as informal interviews, open-ended questionnaires, and focus groups. 2. Based on the interests and priorities expressed by the respondents, the report describes their poverty standards, the most vulnerable groups, their activities, their strategies for survival, particularly traditional solidarity and migration both within the country and beyond, access to health and education services, and the initial impact of the devaluation of the CFA franc. Description of the survey areas 3. The study was conducted in both urban and rural areas. The urban portion focused on three areas in Niamey, the capital, selected from among the poorest sections of the city. SArea 1: The neighborhoods of Kouaratagui and Foulani Kouara. These two outlying neighborhoods are situated far from the center of the city. Kouaratagui is a squatter settlement of disabled persons relocated from the downtown areas. Foulani Kouara is primarily inhabited by former Peul nomads who have been relocated several times in an effort to find a place near the city that is suitable for them and their livestock. * Area 2: The neighborhoods of Tourakou and Boukoki II. Tourakou is an outlying neighborhood that is not quite so distant, traditionally inhabited by Hausas and Zarmas who initially came to sell their livestock and then remained to work as middlemen in the livestock market, eventually to be replaced by large traders. Part of this neighborhood is divided into lots, but there are no infrastructure (schools, clinics, wells). Boukoki is a neighborhood bordering Tourakou that is not far from the downtown area and is inhabited by low-income wage-earners (such as watchmen, and unskilled laborers.) * Area 3: The Yantala-Tchiana and "Cases Allemandes" neighborhoods. These neighborhoods are composed of fenced-in but undeveloped plots of land made available to the poorest people by their owners and government service housing surrounded by courtyards that contain makeshift shelters. 4. Sixty persons (thirty women and thirty men) were interviewed in Niamey, twenty in each of the three areas, with the help of a questionnaire. The questionnaire consists of nine categories of open- ended questions: identification, household composition, origins, associations, housing, economic resources and activities, education, food consumption, and health. The male respondents were all heads of households and the female respondents were either heads of households or wives. Group interviews were also conducted with specific focus groups (married women, young women, unemployed persons, students, and street children), in addition to eleven interviews with relevant groups identified during the course of the study (beggars, cooperatives of disabled persons, a neighborhood patrol, a savings group, women engaged in petty trade, and migrants). A total of approximately 200 persons were surveyed. 103 5. The urban phase of the survey was conducted under the supervision of a national consultant, Ms. Marthe Diarra, with the collaboration of six interviewers (three women and three men, one couple per area). 6. The rural portion of the survey was conducted in three areas: * The Ouallam area (Tillaberi), located 100 kilometers to the north of Niamey, where cereal production is often characterized by shortages: the villages of Tolkoboye and Bardouga; * The Tahoua area, located 548 kilometers to the northeast of Niamey, at the edge of the region affected by desertification. The villages of Koulaye, Kehehe, Ielawa, Mafari, and, in the Keita area, the villages of Tounkarana and Toulliki were surveyed. * The Maradi area, located 600 kilometers to the southeast of Niamey and 50 lan from the border with Nigeria, considered to be a rich area because of better rainfall and cross-border trade. The villages of Djambaili, Maigaoudi, Dan Maigari, and Saban Machi were surveyed. 7. Approximately 190 villagers were interviewed; in addition, interviews were conducted with local authorities and services as well as with NGOs and projects active in the area. The survey team conducted informal interviews with the villagers, either individually or in small groups. Each evening, the team met to share and discuss the information gathered. The team consisted of the international consultant, two interviewers who had participated in the urban phase of the study, and locally recruited interviewers who were either from the staff of NGOs and projects active in the area or young, unemployed school graduates. The participation of local field workers facilitated contact with the villagers and also meant that projects working in the area could benefit from the information gathered. In particular, the PPA received support from the North Tillaberi Project for the Integrated Protection of Agricultural, Forest and Range Resources in Ouallani, the PDRS/GTZ Project in Tahoua, the Keita Integrated Project in Keita and the FAO NER/90/16 Project in Maradi. 8. The detailed results of the PPA in Niger have been published in this poverty assessment's Working Paper No. 3 which is available in the documentation for the Niger Poverty Assessment (Africa Files, World Bank). 104 Annex II Socioeconomic tables List of tables 1.1 Distribution of population by income decile and socioeconomic group in Niger 1.2 Distribution of population by income decile and socioeconomic group in rural areas 1.3 Distribution of population by income decile and socioeconomic in group urban areas 2.1 Distribution of household expenditures on selected items by income decile in rural areas 2.2 Distribution of household expenditures on selected items by income decile in urban areas 3.1 Distribution of household monetary expenditures on food by income decile in Niger 3.2 Distribution of household monetary expenditures on food by income decile in rural areas 3.3 Distribution of household monetary expenditures on food by income decile in urban areas 4.1 Average household size by income decile and location 5.1 Distribution of population, by income decile and location, of male-headed households 5.2 Distribution of population, by income decile and location, of female-headed households 6.1 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in Niger 6.2 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in rural areas 6.3 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in urban areas 6.4 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in Niamey 6.5 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in other urban areas 7.1 Distribution of population by income decile and education level of household head in Niger 7.2 Distribution of population by income decile and education level of household head in rural areas 7.3 Distribution of population by income decile and education level of household head in urban areas 7.4 Distribution of population by income decile and education level of household head in other urban areas 105 Table 1.1 Distribution of population by income decile and socioeconomic group in Niger Main economic activity of Decile household head 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All Executives, teachers, professional and managerial workers - - - - - - - 2.1 1.0 5.7 0.9 Technicians and administrative personnel - - - 0.5 - - 0.5 1.5 2.5 5.1 1 Personnel of services - - 0.5 1.0 1.6 0.8 1.9 4.4 5.6 9.1 2.5 Unskilled laborers 0.4 3.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.8 2.7 2.8 4.8 4.4 2.4 Traders - - - - - - - - 0.7 3.8 0.4 Small traders, hawkers 1.5 2.1 1.7 4.4 2.7 5.7 6.4 12.5 10.9 14.9 6.3 Craftsmen, self-employed builder/transport workers 0.5 1.1 2.7 2.0 3.2 5.3 4.4 5.8 3.8 6.2 4 Marabouts/independent services 4.4 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 3.9 3.4 2.9 3.9 2.7 Urban farmers 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 2.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 4.9 2.4 Unemployed 1.7 - 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 Retired - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.5 Housewives or other inactive 4.1 2.8 3.3 1.0 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.3 Pastoralists (camels and cattle) 1.2 5.2 3.7 5.6 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.8 Pastoralists (cattle and others) 22.6 28.0 22.5 29.8 33.5 35.2 29.1 25.1 19.5 16.7 26.2 Pastoralists (sheep and goats) 44.6 47.5 54.0 43.4 41.8 38.1 39.4 30.4 33.4 13.9 38.7 Farmers 18.0 7.1 5.2 6.6 1.3 3.8 3.3 1.5 2.2 3.1 5.2 Niger 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of Individuals 831,495 829,438 830,137 832,658 827,660 828,842 829,669 829,798 832,205 827,685 8,299,587 106 Table 1.2 Distribution of population by income decile and socioeconomic group in rural areas Main economic activity of Decile household head 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All Executives, teachers, professional and managerial workers - - - - - - - 0.4 2.4 2.6 0.5 Personnel of services - - 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 - 1.7 1.6 2.7 0.8 Unskilled laborers 0.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 - 0.4 0.2 - 1.8 0.9 0.7 Small traders, hawkers 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.9 0.5 2.0 2.7 3.8 7.1 10.7 3.2 Craftsmen, self-employed builder/transport worker 0.6 0.5 1.9 1.3 5 7 1.7 3.9 2.4 1.5 2.6 Marabouts/independent services 4.4 0.7 1.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.7 1.3 Unemployed 1.3 - 0.4 0.4 1.0 - 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.3 Retired - - - - - - - - - 0.8 0.1 Housewives or other inactive 2.3 4.1 1.3 2.1 1.2 1.9 2.1 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.9 Pastoralists (camels and cattle) 1.1 6.4 2.9 5.0 5.3 3.2 5.0 3.9 4.4 8.3 4.5 Pastoralists (cattle and other) 25.1 23.4 29.6 27.4 38.0 31.5 37.9 39.2 31.1 30.9 31.4 Pastoralists (sheep and goats) 45.8 52.0 54.5 51.7 45.5 50.2 45.4 39.7 45.0 33.5 46.3 Farmers 18.7 10.6 5.8 7.4 2.1 1.9 4.5 4.4 1.7 5.5 6.3 Rural 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of Individuals 694,997 690,255 695,367 690,795 693,078 690,474 700,335 683,157 692,502 691,209 692,169 Table 1.3 Distribution of population by income decile and socioeconomic group in urban areas Main economic activity of Decile household head 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All Executives, teachers, professional and managerial workers - - - - - 0.4 1.4 1.4 7.2 15.7 2.6 Technicians and administrative personnel - 3.0 1.0 2.3 8.8 11.6 4.3 6.8 8.1 14.9 6.1 Personnel of services 1.1 9.7 7.5 6.9 10.7 14.2 14.8 13.4 17.1 15.4 11.1 Unskilled laborer 16.9 10.6 12.2 15.6 11.6 9.3 11.7 10.9 9.2 3.3 11.2 Traders - - - - - - 4.1 0.5 6.0 16.6 2.7 Small traders, hawkers 19.2 21.6 28.1 24.1 28.9 23.0 18.2 27.0 17.7 10.5 21.8 Craftsmen, self-employed builder/transport worker 6.3 18.7 13.8 10.2 8.8 12.9 9.8 10.1 11.2 9.0 11.1 MaraboutsAmdependent services 13.8 11.5 12.1 15.2 6.4 9.5 9.4 7.3 6.2 5.9 9.7 Urban farmers 26.9 14.9 17.5 18.4 16.4 11.7 10.7 12.9 9.3 5.6 14.4 Unemployed 3.7 3.2 0.5 1.1 3.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 1.2 0.7 2.0 Retired 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.3 1.2 1.7 9.8 3.0 4.3 0.5 2.8 Housewives or other inactive 11.3 6.0 5.2 3.1 3.6 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.6 1.8 4.5 Urban 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of Individuals 138,041 138,528 136,970 138,452 138,100 137,674 136,932 137,793 139,755 135,173 1,377,418 107 Table 2.1 Distribution of household expenditures on selected items by income decile in rural areas Monetary Health Transportation Education food and and and Consumption Impersonal Home food Food Income Decile apenditure Housing Clothing hygiene communication leisure Sundries expenditure Other rent consumption gifts per capita (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (Sum of 1-7). (9) (10) (11) (12) (Sam of 1-12) 1 4.405 0.529 1.148 0.582 0.579 0.567 0.003 7.811 1.410 1.128 4.940 0.948 16.238 2 6.592 0.729 1.600 0.917 1.024 0.340 0.008 11.208 2.116 1.322 9.230 0.956 24.831 3 6.668 0.863 1.984 1.087 1.042 0.431 0.007 12.082 2.749 1.380 12.721 0.883 29.815 4 10.629 0.934 1.976 1.231 1.015 0.592 0.019 16.396 3.505 1.357 12.213 1.008 34.480 5 9.301 1.202 2.224 1.134 1.775 0.615 0.005 16.256 4.087 1.483 16.369 0.998 39.192 6 12.032 1.491 2.602 1.635 1.986 0.758 0.004 20.508 4.445 1.499 16.195 1.307 43.955 7 13.393 1.646 2.985 1.945 1.639 0.473 0.007 22.087 6.527 1.833 17.754 1.609 49.808 8 17.958 1.893 3.273 2.137 2.915 0.956 0.005 29.136 7.668 1.819 18.578 1.324 58.524 9 24.562 2.598 4.555 2.725 3.090 2.383 0.024 39.937 8.858 1.975 20.121 1.848 72.738 10 47.875 4.950 7.342 5.724 9.852 2.355 0.017 78.113 17.384 2.486 24.676 3.176 125.834 Rural 15.327 1.682 2.968 1.910 2.488 0.946 0.010 25.330 5.870 1.628 15.274 1.406 49.508 Note: Figures are expressed in 1,000 CFAF. Table 2.2 Distribution of household expenditures on selected items by income decile in urban areas Transportation Moetary food Health and and Education Consumption Home food Expandocure Decile ependiture Housing Clothing hygiene communication and leisure Sundries expenditure Other Imputed rent consumption Food gifts per capita (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (Sum of 1-7) (9) (10) (11) (12) (Su- of 1-12) 1 15.504 1.795 0.651 0.697 0.336 0.269 0.057 19.309 0.751 5.088 0.443 0.760 26.350 2 21.661 3.992 1.359 1.095 0.807 0.427 0.095 29.436 2.351 5.764 0.482 0.901 38.933 3 27.936 4.083 2.143 1.298 1.405 0.365 0.165 37.394 2.656 7.262 0.647 0.787 48.745 4 32.190 5.364 2.993 1.776 2.483 0.797 0.070 45.674 3.599 7.881 0.404 0.851 58.408 5 35.847 6.818 5.198 2.152 2.633 0.781 0.189 53.619 4.272 7.621 0.445 1.104 67.059 6 43.481 8.533 6.106 2.808 2.906 0.938 0.237 65.008 4.828 7.899 0.315 0.855 78.904 7 47.594 10.365 8.337 3.015 5.584 1.223 0.109 76.226 6.451 8.877 0.073 1.166 92.792 8 55.784 13.082 10.141 4-394 6.932 1.215 0.384 91.931 11.357 9.769 0.223 1.503 114.782 9 67.499 15.942 16.766 5.161 17.357 2.223 0.371 125.319 11.963 11.023 0.118 1.157 149.579 10 94.543 33.964 33.404 8.924 61.871 5.982 3.163 241.850 44.964 15.081 1.029 1.918 304.840 Urban 44.124 10353 8.670 3.123 10.140 1.414 0.479 78.302 9.252 8.616 0.416 1.099 97.683 Note: Figures are expressed in 1,000 CFAF. 108 Table 3.1 Distribution of household monetary expenditures on food by income decile in Niger Monetary Consumption food expenditure expenditure Salt and Animal Decile (CFA) (percentage) Cereals Tubers condiments Oils products Other All 1 5.116 44.5 6.2 22.5 26.9 5.5 18.7 20.2 100.0 2 9.068 50.7 12.2 22.0 20.9 6.4 19.4 19.0 100.0 3 12.352 54.7 14.9 17.9 16.5 6.8 22.4 21.5 100.0 4 15.786 57.9 17.9 17.9 15.4 6.9 22.7 19.1 100.0 5 19.342 58.7 21.9 16.3 13.2 6.0 20.8 21.8 100.0 6 23.559 62.6 25.6 15.3 11.4 5.3 18.5 23.9 100.0 7 30.316 66.4 27.4 12.7 11.2 5.7 21.9 21.0 100.0 8 39.566 66.6 30.7 11.6 10.4 6.4 20.0 21.0 100.0 9 57.796 64.4 32.8 9.7 9.9 5.9 19.9 21.7 100.0 10 128.872 53.3 28.6 9.3 10.0 6.4 25.0 20.7 100.0 Niger 34.123 58.9 27.4 12.0 11.3 6.2 22.0 21.1 100.0 Table 3.2 Distribution of household monetary expenditures on food by income decile in rural areas Monetary Consumption food expenditure expenditure Salt and Animal Decile (FAF) (percentage) Cereals Tubers condiments Oils products Others All 1 4.75 42.4 6.4 21.4 29.0 5.7 18.2 19.3 100.0 2 8.315 49.3 8.5 25.7 22.7 5.9 18.4 18.8 100.0 3 11.056 53.7 15.0 18.1 17.6 7.2 21.8 20.4 100.0 4 13.834 56.8 15.3 17.8 15.6 6.9 23.9 20.6 100.0 5 16.848 56.7 17.1 18.7 15.7 7.1 21.9 19.5 100.0 6 20.052 56.9 22.3 16.1 12.4 5.7 22.0 21.5 100.0 7 24.016 61.8 23.4 16.5 11.3 5.2 19.7 23.8 100.0 8 30.687 65.0 24.6 14.1 11.0 5.9 24.2 20.4 100.0 9 40.854 63.3 25.9 13.1 9.8 6.3 23.9 20.9 100.0 10 82.889 62.4 26.1 10.9 10.2 6.5 25.1 21.1 100.0 Rural 25.331 60.5 23.1 14.3 12.0 6.3 23.4 21.0 100.0 109 Table 3.3 Distribution of household monetary expenditures on food by income decile in urban areas Monetary Consumption food expenditure expenditure Salt and Animal Decile (CFAF) (percentage) Cereals Tubers condiments Oils products Other All 1 17.736 81.3 41.4 7.0 11.7 4.9 9.6 25.5 100.0 2 28.424 75.3 42.5 6.0 11.8 5.1 10.2 24.4 100.0 3 36.907 73.0 42.5 7.2 11.8 6.0 9.3 23.2 100.0 4 44.643 73.2 41.1 7.1 11.6 6.1 13.3 20.8 100.0 5 53.829 65.6 40.9 7.5 10.8 5.9 12.8 22.1 100.0 6 64.162 68.5 37.3 8.4 10.3 6.2 16.4 21.4 100.0 7 75.345 61.9 36.6 7.9 10.9 6.4 18.0 20.2 100.0 8 93.377 60.0 36.3 7.3 9.8 7.0 19.8 19.8 100.0 9 123.754 54.9 32.2 9.1 10.1 6.1 23.6 18.8 100.0 10 243.178 39.3 24.9 8.8 8.4 5.3 29.9 22.7 100.0 Urban 78.302 56.4 34.9 8.0 10.2 6.0 19.6 21.4 100.0 Table 4.1 Average household size by income decile and location Other Decile Niamey urban Urban Rural Niger 1 10.4 7.9 8.4 9.0 8.8 2 9.4 7.8 8.5 8.5 8.7 3 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.2 4 8.7 8.1 7.9 8.4 8.4 5 8.1 6.8 7.3 8.4 7.9 6 10.4 6.7 7.3 7.4 7.2 7 7.1 7.1 7.3 6.7 6.8 8 6.9 6.0 6.6 6.4 6.4 9 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 10 5.2 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 All 7.8 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 110 Table 5.1 Distribution of population, by income decile and location, of male-headed households Other Decile Niamey urban Urban Rural Niger 1 10.2 9.3 9.5 10.2 10.2 2 10.3 10.3 10.6 9.9 10.1 3 9.1 10.4 9.8 10.2 10.1 4 10.0 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.0 5 9.9 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.3 6 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.9 10.0 7 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.1 8 11.0 10.3 10.2 10.0 10.0 9 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.8 10 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.5 All male-headed households 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of individuals 442,232 787,599 1,229,831 6,677,760 7,907,591 Table 5.2 Distribution of population, by income decile and location, of female-headed households Decile Niamey Other urban Urban Rural Niger 1 8.7 16.4 14.6 4.9 6.8 2 9.9 7.1 5.9 12.9 8.0 3 16.6 6.7 10.9 4.8 8.2 4 10.2 10.0 10.1 12.4 9.8 5 10.8 8.1 8.5 6.5 4.0 6 4.7 6.4 9.4 10.7 10.6 7 14.6 12.7 10.5 9.6 8.9 8 6.7 8.1 8.2 6.8 10.5 9 9.3 12.2 11.8 12.4 13.7 10 8.5 12.4 10.1 18.9 19.5 All female-headed households 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of individuals 51,107 96,480 147,587 244,409 391,996 Table 6.1 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in Niger Decile Male Female All 1 18.8 8.1 14.3 2 23.5 13.4 18.2 3 24.4 9.6 18.0 4 26.0 14.4 20.5 5 35.0 15.9 26.0 6 34.0 20.5 26.9 7 28.4 22.6 25.5 8 41.8 24.7 33.2 9 41.5 33.5 37.5 10 65.8 44.0 54.2 Niger 32.6 20.6 26.8 111 Table 6.2 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in rural areas Decile Male Female All 1 16.3 5.9 11.9 2 19.6 8.8 13.9 3 23.7 13.2 19.1 4 25.9 10.1 18.5 5 20.8 8.7 15.3 6 26.7 12.3 19.2 7 27.7 16.1 21.6 8 22.0 13.3 17.6 9 30.8 14.4 22.6 10 25.2 16.1 20.3 Rural 23.5 11.9 17.9 Table 6.3 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in urban areas Decile Male Female All 1 57.1 44.1 51.2 2 71.0 57.6 65.5 3 66.9 53.5 60.2 4 77.5 65.2 71.1 5 74.1 59.0 66.9 6 73.5 61.3 68.0 7 77.9 61.9 68.7 8 85.2 68.2 76.8 9 85.7 66.3 76.7 10 75.7 82.3 78.8 Urban 73.9 61.2 67.8 Table 6.4 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in Niamey Decile Male Female All 1 76.1 59.5 68.7 2 91.1 80.4 85.7 3 97.2 82.5 89.5 4 84.6 78.0 81.3 5 68.9 61.3 65.8 6 86.1 65.9 75.3 7 88.9 83.7 85.7 8 92.9 57.1 76.6 9 80.0 78.6 79.2 10 67.7 86.4 75.5 Niamey 83.3 73.4 78.4 112 Table 6.5 Enrollment rate by income decile and by sex in other urban areas Decile Male Female All 1 49.8 41.4 46.1 2 56.8 41.2 50.2 3 71.6 49.2 60.5 4 63.1 56.3 60.1 5 67.8 46.6 57.7 6 73.3 53.8 62.8 7 73.1 61.0 67.0 8 79.1 58.1 68.5 9 84.5 66.0 75.9 10 82.9 74.9 79.0 Other urban 68.9 54.2 61.9 Table 7.1 Population by income decile and education level of household head in Niger Decile None Koranic Primary Secondary Graduate 1 12.6 7.3 7.4 7.0 0.0 2 12.1 8.3 6.7 2.1 0.0 3 10.1 10.4 9.4 4.6 0.0 4 11.5 9.3 5.8 1.8 0.0 5 10.5 10.0 7.3 5.7 0.0 6 9.2 11.3 12.1 1.8 0.0 7 9.0 12.4 7.0 0.3 0.0 8 9.1 10.6 11.7 14.5 21.0 9 8.9 10.6 12.1 18.9 13.5 10 7.0 9.8 20.5 43.2 65.6 Niger 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of individuals 4,305,221 3,302,280 448,855 215,354 27,877 Table 7.2 Population by income decile and education level of household head in rural areas Decile None Koranic Primary Secondary Graduate 1 12.5 6.8 11.0 15.6 0.0 2 12.4 7.7 6.1 0.0 0.0 3 9.9 10.4 9.9 3.6 0.0 4 11.2 8.4 9.9 14.4 0.0 5 10.3 9.8 11.5 0.0 0.0 6 9.9 10.1 9.8 11.1 0.0 7 9.0 11.8 11.6 0.0 0.0 8 9.0 11.2 6.8 9.6 33.7 9 8.9 11.0 11.8 12.5 36.7 10 6.8 12.9 11.5 33.2 29.6 Rural 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of individuals 3,602,399 2,927,538 287,541 96,392 8,299 113 Table 7.3 Population by income decile and education level of household head in urban areas Decle None Kornic Primary Secondry Graduate 1 11.8 12.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 2 11.6 11.2 7.3 2.4 0.0 3 11.4 12.1 5.3 2.5 0.0 4 12.3 8.9 9.5 2.8 0.0 5 11.0 10.6 7.9 6.7 0.0 6 9.4 9.5 12.9 12.0 6.8 7 9.4 8.0 14.9 11.9 12.3 8 8.3 12.3 14.9 6.6 7.7 9 8.8 8.2 14.8 18.1 8.4 10 5.9 6.3 8.8 36.2 64.7 Urban 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of individuals 702,822 374,742 161,314 118,962 19,578 Table 7.4 Population by income decile and education level of household head in other urban areas Decile None Koranic Primary Secondary Graduate 1 11.3 11.9 3.5 1.9 0.0 2 11.6 9.8 7.0 2.6 0.0 3 9.9 12.9 4.0 7.1 0.0 4 11.0 11.5 7.6 1.1 0.0 5 11.1 10.7 5.3 6.8 0.0 6 10.1 8.0 11.9 15.3 0.0 7 8.8 9.2 17.1 9.8 35.7 8 8.7 10.0 16.9 9.7 22.3 9 8.8 10.4 11.0 15.6 0.0 10 8.6 5.6 15.7 30.1 42.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Number of individuals 468,445 268,058 83,685 57,127 6,764 114 Annex III Probit estimated coefficients Table A3.1 Probit model for school enrollment Explanatory variables Coefficient P( >T Socioeconomic group Executives, teachers, professional and 1.07 0.0424 managerial workers Unskilled workers 0.10 0.0000 Independent traders 0.09 0.4638 Craftsmen, self-employed in the informal 0.01 0.9546 sector Marabouts -0.45 0.0170 Unemployed 0.05 0.8674 Farmers -0.09 0.0004 Housewives or other inactive -0.06 0.8238 Education level of household head None -0.14 0.1384 Koranic -0.19 0.0001 Literate 1.00 0.0000 Primary 1.14 0.0000 Secondary and higher education 1.61 0.0000 Undeclared 2.04 0.2327 Sex of household head Male -0.03 0.2723 Female 0.56 0.0024 Expenditure quartile of household head 1 -0.21 0.2305 2 0.00 0.9487 3 0.08 0.1021 4 0.15 0.0293 Area of residence Urban 0.73 0.0071 Rural -0.47 0.0000 Department of residence Agadez 0.88 0.1229 Diffa 0.35 0.0834 Dosso -0.16 0.0474 Maradi 0.50 0.0000 Tillaberi 0.17 0.0131 Tahoua -0.16 0.0415 Zinder 0.07 0.3299 Niamey 1.05 0.0000 Sex of household member Male 0.44 0.0000 Female -0.47 0.0000 115 Table A3.1 Probit model for school enrollment (continued) Explanatory vanables Coefficient P(>T/ Size of household 1 - 3 people -1.28 0.129 4 - 6 people -0.36 0.000 7 - 9 people 0.07 0.169 10 -12 people 0.29 0.000 13 or more people 0.12 0.092 Age group of household head Less than 30 years -0.47 0.263 30 - 50 years 0.00 0.939 Over 50 years 0.08 0.060 Undeclared -1.17 0.144 Marital status of household head Single 1.15 0.1752 Married (monogamous) -0.04 0.2428 Married (polygamous) 0.00 0.9528 Widow/widower 0.15 0.4938 Divorced 0.42 0.0755 a. Coefficient is significant if P(IXI>T)< 0.05. 116 Table A3.2 Probit model for area of residence Urban Rural Explanatory variables Coefficient P(V>T)* Coefficient P(X>T) Socioeconomic group Executives, teachers, professional, and managerial workers 0.52 0.0000 2.53 0.4264 Unskilled workers -0.45 0.0000 -0.03 0.9013 Independent traders 0.27 0.0000 1.63 0.0000 Craftsmen, self-employed in the informal sector -0.16 0.0038 -0.25 0.0393 Marabouts -0.38 0.0000 -0.07 0.6777 Unemployed -0.51 0.0000 -1.27 0.0000 Farmers -0.29 0.0000 -0.08 0.0000 Housewives or other inactive 0.05 0.5695 0.01 0.9466 Education level of household head None -0.34 0.0000 -0.18 0.5247 Koranic -0.15 0.0003 0.26 0.0000 Literate 0.42 0.0003 0.10 0.3460 Primary 0.47 0.0000 -0.26 0.0102 Secondary and higher education 1.40 0.0000 0.04 0.8245 Undeclared -0.53 0.1103 - - Sex of household head Male 0.01 0.3767 0.01 0.8556 Female -0.11 0.0760 -0.25 0.0235 Department of residence Agadez 0.28 0.0289 0.70 0.7843 Diffa -0.53 0.0000 0.53 0.0000 Dosso -0.27 0.0008 -0.32 0.0000 Maradi -0.21 0.0000 0.19 0.0000 Tillaberi -0.04 0.6569 -0.63 0.0000 Tahoua 0.07 0.2468 0.58 0.0000 Zinder -0.50 0.0000 0.11 0.0048 Niamey 0.34 0.0000 - - Sex of household member Male -0.03 0.4113 -0.03 0.8916 Female 0.03 0.0983 0.03 0.0899 Size of household 1 - 3 people 1.32 0.0000 1.80 0.1183 4 - 6 people 0.37 0.0000 0.63 0.0000 7 - 9 people -0.15 0.0000 -0.07 0.0161 10 -12 people -0.32 0.0000 -0.55 0.0000 13 or more people -0.33 0.0000 -0.67 0.0000 Level of education of household members None -0.09 0.0111 -0.09 0.5992 Koranic 0.08 0.1526 0.25 0.0000 Literate -0.16 0.4984 -0.09 0.7623 Primary 0.04 0.3445 0.20 0.0018 Secondary 0.30 0.0000 0.26 0.2005 Higher education 1.09 0.0042 0.32 0.7872 Undeclared 0.03 0.9654 - - 117 Table A3.2 Probit model for area of residence (continued) Urban Rural Explanatory variables Coefficient P(X,>T* Coefficient P(X >7) Age group of household head Less than 30 years -0.22 0.1225 0.01 0.9858 30 - 50 years 0.03 0.0572 -0.07 0.0001 Over 50 -0.01 0.8257 0.12 0.0000 Undeclared 0.19 0.8491 -0.79 0.0123 a. Coefficient is significant if P(IXI>T)< 0.05. 118 Annex IV Health personnel and their distribution 1. According to the statistical annexes of the Health Development Plan 1994-2000 (Plan de diveloppement sanitaire 1994-2000 (PDS)), there was one nursing person in Niger for every 4,500 inhabitants in 1991, and one physician for every 75,000. These staff were very unequally distributed across urban and rural areas, as shown in the table below. Annex Map 1 Annex Map 2, and Annex Map 3 display these inequities graphically. Table A4.1 Population and expected deliveries per health staff by city and region, 1991 Population per Population per Expected pregnancies per Locality nursing person physician midwife Niamey 730 8,770 680 Zinder city 880 29,300 860 Maradi city 1,480 28,300 1,400 Ouallam district 13,700 206,000 12,900 Bouza district 21,500 286,000 10,300 Dakoro district 31,790 351,000 15,000 Niger 4,500 75,000 1,860 Source: Plan de ddveloppement sanitaire 1994-2000. Annex Map 1 Health service professionals: availability of licensed physicians NIGER (rural population) Health service profesionals The dcmenonsmb uawd l the ba cs ix an ts mop do ra iWly, n the prt of th Weid Bok Group. any jugoms mal l aus of any it y W e ar Ud m R accePane of mch bun esm Number of bbabiant per phynkian 45.000 to lOD.000 100,000 to 150.000 150.000 to 200.000 200,000 to 220,000 Map fentume SLak Ctad 0 Dixtrict (dptl. ) 119 & 「「兀不而面瀾面五一一取「「一兀可西騙藪不一刁暴 奮！’計1！〕，：劉！〕 ！才×斗絨！】！才激中絨〕i 匡一一一一亡」〞匕－----..－一－－上」i MAP SECT16N  ALGERIA Una of th. World Bonk CHAD The boundwies, colors, denommations and ony L CJ p other infoaåon shown this map do not The Worl Bank Goup. Kny udgment on the tegal status of any territory, Cor Ony endorseent AFlCAN or cceptance of such CAMEROON R boundores. 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