RESTRICTED TMrir ('(%DV TILL~~~~~~~~~~~ EAJ S T U VOL. 3 This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. ~ ~ k ' I ~TT,' T T%T V 1'1?-/ Tn"~T'r%TTf"?T'T%XT I XTT% ThT"I YTFT iN TRN A' .iAiONAL B.AIN' Pr. Rr' CN SiU.TI. LNAD LJ'nvn,L~..rLV1MJ.Nj I TT r'TiNAT I '1'T%kTI T 7rV 7Y PT T 1-kTrIT ISC IrATI ON PROPOSALS FOR AN ACTION PROGRAM EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT VOLUME III THE WATER PROGRAM July :17, 1970 Special Projects Department CURRENCY E14IVALENTS US$ 1.00 = Rupees (Rs) 4.762 Rs 1.00 a US$ 0.21 Rs 1 million = US$ 210,000 MWEIfHTS AND MEASURS 1 Acre (ac) - 0.40q hsctAre (ha' 1 mile (mi) = 1.609 kil-meters (km) 1 square mile (sq mi) 640 nc = 259 ha 1 foot (ft) - 30.5 cen,timeters (cm) 1 long ton (ig ton) - 1.016 metric tons (m ton) 1 ,.c4p.r'o+ (a-t = 1,234~ cub,ic% meters (-m3) 1 cubic foot per second (cusec) -0.028 .,./s L"a.,U.L UAJ.LI,Vs 1 maund (md) 0 o.0367 ig ton 1 maund = 82.2 lb .NrIrALS AND ACRONihxS EPADC - East Pakistan Agricultural Development Corporation EP4APDA - East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority IRRI - International Rice Research Institute, Pnilippines PARD - Pakistan Academy for Rural Development (at Comilla) SIDA - Swedish International Development Authority TIP - Thana Irrigation Programme UNDP - United Nations Development Programme USAID - United States Agency for International Development USGS - United States Geological Survey GLOSSARY aran - rice planted before the monsoon and harvested in November or December aus - rice planted in March and harvested in June or July boro - winter rice planted in October or November and harvested in Marnh or April kharif - summer (wet) cropping season rabi - winter (dry) propping season EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS FOR AN ACTION PROGRAM VOLUME III --- WATER PROGRAM Table of Contents Page CHlAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................... 1 Geographical Setting ............................. 1 Regions ......... ................................. 2 CHAPTER 2 HISTORY OF WATER DEVELOPMENT ..................... , ,,e 7 SUMMARY . ............................................... 7 ClHAPTER 3 INCREASING OUTPUT FROM EXISTING PROJECTS .... .......... 16 Croastl rm.hankmentsz 16 Phase I, Group A ....... ..................... 17 Phase I, Group B .oa..__ .._ .............. 17 Phase II .......... .......................... 18 Overall management assistance . .............. Water management ...... ...................... 18 Organizational and institutional problems ... 19 Relationship with Southwest Region Water Stud- ........... +*.................... Special Bank Mission ..... ................... 20 Ganges-Kobadak Project (Kushtia Unit) .... ........ 21 Phase I ........ ............................. 22 Phase II ........ ............................ 26 Agricultural extension ..... ................. 27 Conclusions on Phases I and II .... .......... 27 Chandpur Project ....... .......................... 28 CHAPTER 4 NE W PROJD'ECTS -- CUARDT-..DA1M73 ,~L.fl A~tA.l.t,±L kJflf.-l . . lf,. ............. Low-lift Pumps ................................... 31 Trub,ewell's .................................................. 3.) Existing tubewells .......................... 37 Mu%C tube e l pr i ............................................3 EPWAPDA tubewell projects .... ............... 38 Rat -f ubewell deveop..ent ...................................... 40 L%aL.q UkL t_UU W.L. UC V=.LUPLIILI. United States Geological Survey-assisted study .......'.............................. 4; Indigenous methods .......................... 41 Table of Contents Cont'd Multi-purpose Projects - Feasibility Studies Available ......... ............................. 42 Dacca Southwest project ......... .. .......... 44 The Karnafuli Irrigation project ............ 48 Muhuri project ................ .............. 51 The Pabna project ............ .. ............. 57 The Belkuchi project ........... .. ........... 58 The Upper Kushiyara project ....... .. ........ 59 Khowai project ................ .............. 61 Sangu multi-purpose project ......... ........ 62 New Multi-purpose Projects - Feasibility Studies Not Available ....... ........................... 64 The Dacca North project ......... .. .......... 65 Barisal project ............. .. .............. 66 Little Feni project ........... .. ............ 68 The Comilla-Noakhali project ....... ......... 68 Manpower Requirements ............................ 70 Engineering .................. ............... 70 Agriculture ....... .......................... 71 Agricultural Production .......................... 71 Periodic Review of Projects ..... ................. 74 Short-Range Proiects -- Summary .... .............. 74 CHAPTER 5 NEW PROJECTS -- LONG-RANGE ........................... , 76 Flood Control Aspects ............. .. ............. 76 Water Balance Asnects ... 77 Floating Pumping Stations ..... ................... 82 Regions.83 Special Studies ....... ........................... 84 lG:nopg hbarraop c0nyld nintthwaet rgionn wteAar study ......... ............................ 84 Model of soutthwest regioon .......... 86 Flood models ................. ............... 86 Brnhm.aniutrA-Canges-Meghna Complex - 87 Flood Consulting Board ............ .. ............. 88 Basic Data .......................... 8 Surface water hydrology ......... .. .......... 89 Groundwater hydrology . .90 Aerial mapping ................ .............. 90 Geotechnicall exploratio.,s .................................... 9 Construction materials ..... ................. 92 Sesmlogy ............................................ 93 Geomorphology and sedimentology .... ......... 93 Table of Contents Cont'd TABLES 1. Cost Estimates 2. Project Areas 3. Incremental Agricultural Production from Water Development Projects MAPS 1. Area Normally Flooded 2. EPWAPDA Water Projects CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.01 Chanter 6 of Volume I contained a descriDtion of the water devielon- ment program. In this Volume III the same program is described but in great- er detail. Several of the larger Drolects (Pabna. Barisal. Little Feni and Comilla-Noakhali) have been divided into two phases and in Volume I the first phaAes of these nroiects were described. This volume containa further des- criptions of these phases as well as particulars with respect to the later phases of these nrnioets= Tn addition- this voltump vivea information on long-range aspects of water development and on specific studies needed in connecrtin thprpzwith- CpnerAnhirAl q'tttin0 l.O2 East Pakistan- Pakistan's eartern nrovince (area 55j000 square miles), is surrounded on the west, north and northeast by India, on the southeast by Burma, an on the snut-h hb fthe Bay f Bengal. WithIn the Province, the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, Ganges-Padma and Meghna Rivers join and flow Into the Bay of Bengal. Over the cent-r4-es these three rivers have built the largest and one of the most fertile deltas in the world. Ranging generally- from sea level to 100 feet in elevation tdth ove half loer than 50 feet), this delta covers most of East Pakistan. 1.03 The drainage area of the three rivers covers 600,000 square miles bull' only 7.151 percent, of th4is lies within East Paki4sta-. Trher reu.f_u IS At tjlf. * j~ t.Af U tAt UffltO ,t -A. flA.A LOOU nat la,. . L CL L Q ULSSA. L.u- nately no storage sites within East Pakistan that could assist in flood or iow=flow regulation a'tough leaslble sites may ex'st within upstream, A.A X U L l L OL. UI A L L aO± -L~ L -L.O nn CA. L.W LLI &.Lbea riparian countries. The long-range technical problem is further complicated by the great magr.itude of thte peal; fIloodu fIlow (5/C lo usc rao; ~L~O WU~L.L UU~tJJ.LLL~jJ~a% A LULU ILW _J IILL.L.L.LULon cusecs or AbuUI twice the historical peak flood of the Mississippi River) and the enormous sedlirment 'loadu of th'e co`bned r'ivers, which 'Ls about 2.4 bllon tonsI I LUU JL 4 U.LJL.L.LMUUL n.tons annually or greater than that of any other river system in the world. Th.e enor.u.ous transpo4ting power of the Ganges and Brahmaputra h.as resul:ed in major shifts of their channels in recent centuries. 1.04 Because East Pakistan depends on agriculture for economic survival, hler fl'ood ar.d drought prollems are particularly signr.ifican;. Zr. -le lar;t *5~I LLUIJUSIIU ULOU1 L. LFUL~U S pL LLU.LSL OL 1L JSL L L *LI L.iA WS few years, floods caused East Pakistan to import about one million tons of rice per year to fee Iler popuLatLon. IrL the f'uture, Loodu controL anu irrigation will be even more important because, at the present population growth rate of about 3 percent per year, East Paklistan will h ave 120 IIUI±IUIl people by 1985. They will consume twice as much rice as they do now. 1.05 The cultivable area of the Province (excluding rivers, streams, __ _ _ _ .. __ .__.__ oo c4ll 11) AL_- . _ l.-I__ _. . roauds, towns andu viln.;ges) Is aouuuL -22.5 million acres. AbJUL a LtLrU )I tnis area (from 8 to 10 million acres) is flooded annually on the average by spills from the main rivers to the land and from the .act that local runoff from the heavv monsoon rains is backed up by flood levels in the main rivers; see Map 1. Some flooding is also caused by tributary streams draining hilly areas either within India; or within Pakiatan but near the hnrder= 1.06 In the coastal belt, a zone covering 3 million acres is subiert to flooding from oceanic tides and tidal surges from typhoons. Depending on the time of the year and the flood flnwn in the rivers- the inundAtinna vary greatly as regards the degree of salinity. 1.07 A total of 17 million acres (two-thirds the cultivable land) is subiect from time to time to one of the fnreonino tvnpe of flnoding although the area flooded in any single year never has reached such a total. Because of flooinda 17 m1llinn tonn of rice were InAt hetween 1954 and I1S56 and 1.2 million tons were lost in 1962. The rice lost in 1962 had a value of $220 millionn L08 Reaidaa airecat dlnnna tn ronns, floods hamner rice product-in ir. other ways. In deeply flooded lands (over 15 feet as in the Meghna valley) farmera cannot grow anv rice at all. Tn lande that are flonded from I tn 12 feet, they can grow only low-yielding braodcast aman rice. Where flood- inc ia frnm I to 3 feet, farmers grovw hiaher-yiliing aus. and transplanted aman rice but they must accept risks from occasional higher floods or from drouohtt nnd thav cannot' 1nelf, uase fe.rt'ilizers or imnroved seed effective- ly. The effect of flooding on land use is shown graphically on Map 1. 1.09 Rainfall in the Province averages 85 inches of which about 58 inches fall during the rainy season f.-o May to October. T' s monsoon brings rainfall averaging from 48 inches in the west to more than 100 inches in the H.imlay G foothllls. However even during the Monsoon period because of irregular rainfall there may at times be insufficient water for crops. Durng the dr; season, about 60 per.ent of te _ltivated land is left fallow because of insufficient water. Residual moisture is the b as4 for thse cul:ivation of th1e remalning 40 percent with relatlvely 1ow- 510 O %1 ~UC .& A L ILI t1*i1 %31 LIAC LCjU&K.L55 -VW JL LC U - 4. LU . ~ L C .*w yielding pulses and cereals (mainly millets). 1.10 With water control (flood prevention, drainage and irrigation) .ouplJ.eU W.LL11 WVUdeL1 an8L.LLU±LULa.L LUpULU, tLAIC pLCs,IL aLcLLULLLL pLoUUcLtLoLI could be more than tripled. Regions 1.11 One can divide East Pakistan into four roughly equal regions, based on hydrologic differences. ine Brahmaputra-Jamuna, Ganges-Padma, and Meghna Rivers form the boundaries of the four regions: the Southwest, the Northeast, the Southeast and tne Northwest. All four regions have severe winter droughts, and summer and early fall floods. In the Northwest, droughts are more serious than floods whereas in the Northeast the reverse is true. Both droughts and floods are serious in the Southeast and South- west regions; the floods in these cases are mainly tidal in nature. 1.12 The Southwest Region, which covers almost 10 million acres, con- sists of Kushtia, Jessore, Faridpur, Knuina, Barisal and Patuakhaii Districts. Each year, cyclones produce high tides in rivers emptying into the Bay of Bengal; tidal surges from typhoons sometimes reach up to 25 feet above sea level. 1.13 In the past, tidal floods especially hampered the agricultural otutput in an area of 3 million acres approximately contiguous with the laitter three Districts and resulted in extensive salinization of the soil. Farmters planted transplanted aman rice in the wet season after the rains had partial- ly leached the residual salts from the earth. In the winter, the drought: and soil's excess salinity prevented farmers from growing any crops. For these reasons, only a single crop had been grown in these Districts (see Map 1). During the past 10 years considerable progress in the construction of embankments (see Coastal Embankment project described in Chapter 3) his protected an area of about 1 million acres from saline inundation with re- sulting increased yields in the transplanted aman crops. Within this zone, further increase in yields as well as the introduction of dry season crops by means of irrigation, to the extent that water can be made available, will come as a later stage. The remaining area of 2 million acres still suffers from tidal inundation but with the important difference that the flooding is from fresh rather than saline water. It seems likely therefore that dry- season irrigation should in this case come first and flood prevention as a later stage (see Chapter 3). 1.14 Although river and rain flooding are not as serious in the south- west as tidal inundation, they do harm much of this region's agriculture especially in the Faridpur and parts of the Barisal Districts. Distribu- taries from the Padma flow, such as the Arial Khan, periodically flood the latter two Districts. Because of these floods, Faridpur's yield of rice is only 75 percent of the East Pakistan average. Consequently, Faridpur's large population consumes more rice than her farmers can produce and the Government has had to import rice to feed the local population. 1.15 Drought rather than flood is a problem in Kushtia and Jessore Districts where ground elevations are higher. Cropping intensities average about 130 percent with considerable areas in rabi crops (pulses and sugar- cane) that utilize (in late fall and early winter) residual moisture stored in the soil. Aus rice is another widespread crop in these Districts but yields are low due to dry conditions in the early part of the growing season. The Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project (Kushtia Unit) covers 0.35 million acres in Kushtia and the northern part of Jessore District (see Chapter 3 for detail). The Ganges-Kobadak development at its ultimate stage would cover a total area 2.6 million acres. The Government's intention has been to base this irrigation almost entirely on diversion of water from the Ganges River. The Government has in fact proceeded with design of a major barrage one of whose functions would be to facilitate such diversion. However, whether such an ultimate plan is technically and economically feasible is not yet clear. For one thing, an agreement with Indla would probably be needed - 4 - with respect to water releases at the Farakka barrage and there are many other tArhniAl onmnlplexities to h workedA ot wi4th res- ac to oher effects of upstream diversions (includes increased saline water intrusion, reduced na-vivat4nn tipnths nndi rpieduced v4eldsc fro^m f4cishng) ."A wi4th re-ect to possible counter-measures (such as use of return flow in downstream areas from upntream 4rr4 gatlonn, poss4ble closure of tidal estuaries and develop- ment of groundwater). (For further detail see Chapter 5 and especially the nrnnopod spei-4al st4udies of the Ganges barrage, the Southwest region and the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex.) 1.16 The Southeast region (gross area 7.7 million acres) includes the Dist:ricts of ro--411a, Noakuhal O,4 Chtt_og n th-en- ,ltaon ilI Tracs 1 s 1 .. U-. -- L - L ~~6 & cIL&u LJit %.LI LL" YVg LA r, El LL.L A. L racts. Tidal inundation is one of this region Is major water problem. Much of this inundation ia saline but some of this has …een pre-vented by te Coastal ~~ I.X L L.L u 1U- L p LV.LL U LLILIX II ~ Embankment project (Chapter 3) which extends in part to the Southeast region. 1.17 River and rain flooding and droughts also have harmful effects. ,,e MeULna an' U ivers flouo LarLg sectio-11 VI LfNoaK118ha1 anu aImoSL all of Comilla. The Karnafuli, although in parts under control, and the Sangu River flood parts of the C.f- ttagong andA t1- ('11. TrIl t D The Southeast produces a large crop of broadcast aman in the summer and early fall when floo(As in some places reachn dept"hs of I) to 15 feet. secause of droughts, farmer only produce a small winter rice crop and some rabi crops (from residL'Uua'l soil UmoLsturel). 7Iey also grow a suIaLL crop ofL transplante aman in less flooded areas. 1.18 The high elevations in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and parts of the C`h1ittagorng i'stricts prevent floods f rom occurr'ing, aithough winter droughts are still a problem. The soil here is sandier and has a different composi- tion fLrom the rest ofL East PLKim2istan, thus entabii'ng f'armers to grow citrus fruits and tea on the hills and cotton on the lower slopes. 1.19 The Northeast region (gross area 9.2 million acres) covers the following districts: Mymensingh, Sylhet, Dacca and the northern tip oi Comilla. This region's topography, climate and rivers all contribute to East Pakistan's worst flood problem. Tne region includes the Syinet Basin through which the Brahmaputra River flowed before it changed its course during the latter part or tne eignheentn century. mucn or tne bylnet Basin lies between elevations 10 to 20 feet as a result of 30-40 feet of subsidence that has occurred over the past several hundred years. Because of the plain's low relief, channels and basins are not deep enough to drain the Brahmaputra-Jamuna and Meghna Rivers" overflow during the monsoon season. Nor can they drain the monsoon rains averaging between 220 inches in north- eastern Syihet to 70 inches in Dacca. 1.20 Floods and droughts slow down agricultural production in this region. Meghna River Valley farmers cannot grow any variety of rice because floods rise to 20 feet here. Floods damage crops in Sylhet and Mymensingh. In Dacca, agricultural workers can double crop only 40 percent of their land. Dacca's large population consumes much more rice than the flood burdened District can produce. In the last few years, the Pakistan govern- ment imported rice to satisfy this population's needs. 1.21 Farmers in these zones adapt their agriculture to drought and ,1wod cond't'Lors. hTere floodling is irfrequent, far-ers gLow Jute, aus, and transplanted aman during the monsoon season. Where floods do not exceed fifteen feet, they plant broadcast wminr. On the molst low lands, farmers grow boro in the winter. But in other areas, the drought prevents a borco crop. SyiLhet's hils5 are not flooded atud thuu e hil.: l soils lavea di UffL:[lerie: composition, thus permitting the East Pakistanis to grow tea and citrus fruits. i.22 Tne ultimate solution of the Northeast region's water problems involves serious complexities. Aside from the areas of the Dacca Southwest, Dacca North projects and several small tributary projects in the extreme Northeast (total area about 0.7 million acres) plus some areas totalling perhaps 0.1 million acres suitable in the near future for groundwater deve- lopment, the best method of proceeding in the rest of the region is uncertain at this time. A possibility that has been considered for many years but needs a great deal of further study is the diversion of a portion of the flow of the Brahmaputra River into its former channel (designated "Old Brahmaputra River" on Maps 1 and 2) and thence to the Sylhet depression; see Chapter 5 on description of the "Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex". 1.23 The Northwest Region (gross area 8.5 million acres) includes the districts of Dinajpur, Rangpur, Bogra, Rajshahi, and Pabna. Drought is this region's most serious problem since the monsoon season is shorter here than elsewhere in the Province. The drought lasts seven months, and prevents farmers from growing a winter crop of rice except in a small portion of the lower-lying lands. 1.24 Floods are also a problem in the Northwest. While the right bank of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna has now been largely protected by an embankment (completed in 1968) the Teesta and Atrai Rivers continue to overflow. A large section of southeastern Pabna District suffers flooding from the Ganges each year (see Maps 1 and 2). As a result rice production is low and in the last few years the Government has imported rice to satisfy Pabna's needs. 1.25 Northwesterners adapt their farming to flood and drought condi- tions. In higher lands they grow only transplanted aman as there is not enough moisture to start an aus crop before the monsoons. In intermediate lands farmers grow aus or jute alone or double-cropped with aman or sugar- cane. In low-lying lands they plant a mixture of broadcast aman and aus or broadcasL aman alone (where flooding is deep). 1.26 As is generally found to be true in East Pakistan, the zones of flooding are also the zones where surface water is available for irrigation. In the Northwest region this applies particularly to the eastern part of Pabna District. Elsewhere in the region, surface water is scarce and irri- gation will have to be based largely on groundwater. Fortunately, the - 6 - outlook is favorable in a considerable part of the Province. A tubewell proiect (Thakurgaon) for the irrigation of a concentrated zone of 70.000 acres was completed in 1967. The Agricultural Development Corporation intendR soon to proceed with a pro1ect for 3.000 tubewells at dispersed locations, mostly in the Northwest region; see Chapter 4. -7- CHAPTER 2 HISTORY OF WATER DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY i. Imvortant construction efforts have been successfully carried out in East Pakistan but mainly with respect to single-purpose flood prevention proiects. The achievement to date in this type of prolect amounts to about 1,000,000 acres protected against tidal flooding and a similar area protect- ed against river flooding. Construction progress, while slow at first, has improved in recent years. The use of labor-intensive ("head basket") methods for the extensive earthworks involved are well suited to the local conditions of climate and labor supply. ii. The execution of multi-purpose projects, involving three functLons -- irrigation and drainage as well as flood orevention -- began about 15 vears ago but has not made the rate of progress that had been hoped for sinre ihe Arh1evpment tn date amounts to only about 60;000 acres enJoying benefits from all three functions. The disappointing results obtained tlhus far from this type of pro4ect hba heen dtip to a ronmhinAtinn of fartors among which probably the most important has been a lack of understanding of the the particular requirements of surh pronects under East Pakistan condi- tions. This understanding has however made important progress in the past few years and there is now keen reanliatinn t-hat two% key InoredIents for success are: (a) a well integrated project organization capable of dealing with the farmers (the eoatahliQhment of asch an organia7ntion involvas coope- tion among several agencies including EPWAPDA, the Department of Agriculture, the A^nC and the BD & LG Departm-ent) and (b) adoption of n methoA of ir4lga- tion distribution suitable to the conditions of small, fragmented land- holdings that prevaIl. Several prniects aggregating 450nOOO acres have hben prepared on the basis of these concepts and either are under construction or at the Qstag of final Pnpineerino des4gn_ iii. Exr.4noin with the l1w-14ft npmmn nrnorram of Anlr (nnavoar,nh 9 1AL indicates that East Pakistan farmers do in fact respond quickly when irriga- tion water is provided 4n -he dry sean.n Th. aran irrlgated (mnstly bhiro-i rice during the winter months) has grown from nil in 1962 to about 200,000 acres n4 10A6/97 anA 700 nnn acrea in 1Q9Q670. Th. areas irrigated by this means to date have been located along perennial streams where conditions have been relat4vely favorable. The stage will soon be reached when medlu-Scale civil works (i.e. EPWAPDA-type projects) will be needed so as to increase water availability and thereby greatly extend the area that can be irrigated by low-lift pumps. Such civil works will at the same time give major benefits through flood preveration., drainage, navigation ar.d im.proved fs culture. - 8 - iv. The use of tubewells has resulted thus far in the irrigation of about 100,000 acres. A project for an additional 150,000 acres is just starting. It is noteworthy nevertheless that the exploitation of ground- water for irrigation has barely started in East Pakistan. As discussed later in this volume, as further knowledge and experience are gained- ground- water development is likely to grow in relative importance in the years ahead. 2.01 Small-scale irrigation in the form of nrimitlve lifting devires has a long history in East Pakistan in view of the lack of rainfall during the winter months. As these deviceR are inefficient and can lift nnlv qmall quantities of water, the area cultivated in winter through such means has however remained small The use of diesel-driven pnmn%s obtaining water from perennial streams, began in the early 50's and by 1955, 40 such pumps were ofnerAtina The RAat Pakistan Agrie-ilt,tral Devealnnmant Conrporatinn (ADC) was established in.1961. While its primary functions are the pro- curement and distribution to farmers of aRricultural inputs (seeds. fer- tilizers, pesticides and agricultural machinery), ADC has also a highly imnortant secondna-y f2nc-tinn; nAmely the nrnmntion of the develpnnmnt- of small-scale irrigation by means of low-lift pumps and tubewells. ADC has hben A mAin supp0I4r and niarnniyav cin-a lQA7 nf orvtable, dseaal-dr4ven low-lift pumps which generally have a capacity of 2 cusecs and are almost entirely uisedR only dwrino t-he hnorn asenn being r.^xuled fr-om t-he field at the end of this season. By 1966/67 a total of about 4,000 such pumps were supnlied by Anfc In the 1969/70 season th4i increaseadA toa !80 pnmp, anA the Government has plans to increase this up to 40,000 for the irrigation of abt..-t 1 1; 114ion acres at scattered locations througout the Province. This is about the upper limit of area irrigable by low-lift pumps, unless a-asisted by lar1 ar scalae civil works (see belo r.. d in Ch.apter 4). 2 .02 Sir.ce a tprc low-lIft pup of 2-cVsec capacity seres up to about 50 acres and since, with the small landholdings prevalent in East Pakistan this area cma involve as many as 50 fa = rs, a key element iz the organization of groups of farmers for the distribution and utilization of irr ~igaa-4on WUu ~ aW l IL Ji5 1LL.V L JtOI.llOJ L, L. i::igtionater. 'Po assist in -this o ect-ive a- least i.-sofar asthe low= lift pumps are concerned, the Government a few years ago established the so-called T.k.Lana Irrigatio Pl'a. P(T1P 1 I un.der hichl th res1pr ibi-t for aL..a.LL~U Jililo LLL~UL.IJ LJdll ~L.LJ. Lj ±. uIJ WUL Itl Lilt L=O WLAOJ.U.LA.LLL LUL forming pump groups, for providing and paying pump operators, for providing uel. mu' fLor coLilectLIng p-up rentnal charges ha 5 Ueen thile 'LunctiLon of tLile Basic Democracies and Local Government (BD & LG) Department utilizing the existlng L uUnion anu 1111ar&a CYoaJucils. AWDCUs sole -responsibility 'Lrs thLus Lhe provision and maintenance of the pumps. l/ See: Volume I, Chapter VII; also paras 4.05-4.09 below. - 9 - 2.03 A1)C in recent years has also become involved in the construction and nnperation of tubewells and has constructed 800 wells of 1.5 to 2-cunic capacity during the past 3 years. These are at dispersed locations rather than in a en-ent-rared zone auch aq those of EPWAPDA (deostrihed hblow!- As for the low-lift pumps, distribution to farmers' field channels is being hnneilA ,under trhe TTP- TDA in nrnopaeina a nradlt for 3,000 ADM t,,hbwella to be constructed during the next few years; see Chapter 4 for further 2.04 Tar--e-scale water development in Et Pistan began. in the early 1950's. At that time after several years of studies, a team of UN experts propoAed the Glangess-KOb-adak proJ4ecta coverAing 1 .9 mi0 .4lion. acresr irn t.he Districts of Kushtia, Jessore and Khulna. 1/ Continued assistance was nr.8_.44AA 1.. i-ho CsaA _a A An4 n,.i?.,ra flrnan4 ..a*n AS i-l. TlT C{_ i-his ___ ject, the Kushtia Unit of which wasA then started with aid in the form of foreigrn excha.nge pr.ov 4Ade d- r.ada and the Un4ited4 States. In '9554, 1955 and 1956 severe flood damages occurred and the Government of Pakistan again sought the assltan.ce of the TT4i-eA Nati-ons. A tea. ofA experts headed by J.A. Krug, former Secretary of Interior of the U.S.A., visited East Pakistan *in ELCate JUL . 5%6 G- Lqnelr * kno&WL as t4he Kru Missi oL n tJL X fiCprU J.7.aJ / recommended the creation of an autonomous corporation to deal with water and e'lectriLc po-wer development. Such a corporation, 'Known. as the Eoa °al; Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) was established in 1959. 2.05 Since EPWAPDA's establishment in 1959, six agricultural water pro'ects hIlave h'1adU pr,Lmary LmportL. ce, as 'Lolluws Complete proects Brahmaputra Right EMbankment Northern Tubewells (Thakurgaon) Dacca-Demra Partiallycomnpleted projLcts Coastal Embankments Ganges-Kobadak, Kushtia Unit Cnandpur The main emphasis thus far has been on single-purpose flood prevention pro- jects, especially in the coastal area. 2.06 Among the six existing projects listed above, the coastal embank- ment project has constituted by far the largest effort. A sum of $200 mil- lion (total equivalent) has been invested since the project started in 1959. The principal source of financing has been rupees generated by the US PL-480 l/ Later increased to 2.6 million acres (ultimate); see Chapter 1. - 10 - program. The project will ultimately provide protection against inundation from nepanle tides in an area nf I mil4Unn A-rrp giih-dAiridpd into 102 cnpn- rate polders. Inundation is of two main types: saline and non-saline, with varlousq radattonn thereof. 2-07 Phase I of the pronect consists of 86 polders with nn aggregate area of 2.0 million acres. To date 61 polders have been completed providing nrnrprt-inn rn An arpe of 1 0 million acres; the remaining 25 polders in Phase I are partially completed. Construction has consisted primarily of earth emhbnkmen.ts. Th .ese have an average height of about 12 feet and their aggregate length is over 2000 miles. Numerous sluices have been provided through the eab F.ts provi outletas for 4nterior ra-i4nage 2.08 Alth1ough, the pro4ect h.s proviAe-A otntbnft truhei - is'. -. iL 4t'O I * h.L LL---. L, 6 mination of saline flooding, there have also been cases of negative benefits since farmuers ir. somm. of th1,e polAers had previously beer. accustor,.ed lo uslng non-saline flood waters for irrigation. As a next stage of development, water muaagement ir. th--e irterior of eachl. of the poldUers, coup'ledU with agri- cultural inputs, would provide sizable benefits at relatively low cost. A program for such development is described in Chapter 3. 2.0i Th.e second mALost important enAeavor bLy EWIADA has been the GK- Kushtia project in which the total sum invested since 1959 has been $60 mUI4.JIon toL s-al CeqUiLV alentI . Fi UancLini LIas UCCeL miain'LIy *. roIU UL.l resourc-sC but with substantial foreign assistance from Canada and the United States. The ,.'.. . p-rp- -o-4nth 4n i- .4t Ap 4d -4rr-4gati .d-A ra-i4 age -A e14li4 VLC[Uut jJLiCC& US -In FJLWJC~- . LU jJL'V4.UC XLAL A6"UI.LWStJll& OU"iLLCL6a&u05 afLS.- C~lUU nate flooding in a gross area of 350,000 acres (120,000 acres in Phase I and 230,000 acres 4r a. e C II -= onLy IPLhase I is In operation at present). Although the project is providing benefits, these have fallen short of ex- pectations since irrigation i8 beLng provLU'ided for only 40 ,000 acres and even this occurs only at the end of and immediately following the monsoon season. T.hi's i8eca-use the pro'ect has suffjeredu frorm severali ser'Lous technical difficulties and because the type of irrigation distribution (conventional gravlty systemj auopteu imay not be 8u'ited to East Pakistan condtuiLtLons (very small and badly fragmented landholdings). On the other hand, GK-Kushtia can still provide substantial benefits. Tne serious technical difficulties mentioned are in fact gradually being corrected; a stepped-up effort is needed however as discussed in Chapter 3. 2.10 Tne Brahmaputra Right Embankment project was constructed in the years 1964-68. This project for which IDA provided a credit of $5 million consists of an embankment 135 miles long and 12 feet high (average) and appurtenant structures consisting of drainage sluices. Protection against floods from the Brahmaputra River have been provided for 580,000 acres and important benefits are being realized, mainly through higher yields from transplanted aman rice rather than the lower yielding broadcast aman pre- viously grown (see para. 5.04). As a next stage the protected area will require irrigation facilities probably by means of tubewells; see para. 4.30. - 11 - 2.11 IDA has so far financed three water development projects in East Pakistan with a total of US$24.25 million of credits. Besides the Brahmaputra Embankment project these have included the Dacca-Demra and Chandpur nrnioetR. An IDA credit of US$1.0 million for Dacca-Demra was provided in 1961. The project provides partial flood protection and irri- cgation in ansrea nf 15,000 aCreS. It wan suhbtantaA1lv rncmpnlted in lQ9i7 and benefits are now being obtained. 2.12 The Northern Tubewell (Thakurgaon) project was substantially com- pleted in 1967. It consists of 365 electrical!--driven relativel, lare- …---~~~~~~~~ .7 -'-o-- capacitv (3 cusec) tubewells that will ultimately serve an irrigated area of about 71,000 acres. T.h.e pro4ect cost was R-*. 155 lo4114^. ndA L- aaa4a#i A by two German loans totalling DM 22.2 million. As part of the project, a brikck-li4nedA cnal generally several h.ndred feet long has been provi4AA leading from each well. Since completion, additional expenditures for lining of fielA c-nanels th f.fat. tSU -.--I from the brl.k-lne (the region is sandy) are being found necessary. Even after full development, th1Je projec. will be costly whether uncasured ir. terL s of coat per well1 or per acre irrigated. The long and narrow configuration of the project area and the dispersal of the well sites, coupled with. the Aesigre of providi;;g %A I .A 1 . ~ 30.. J. S.f ~ ~ . U 0.3.L ~ Jtr .t AL.l LI AL 5.A j./LtJ social benefits through rural electrification are the apparent explanatLons of te hl,l ost.EPWDTADyA is n- conucin stu-e .h;cud-edt Oj. tlle 111igh11 0U L t £."L " fIA LILt L.L &L%JW 1L5.UL.LAU 6.LI&J L.U%UL=O LLIC&V. %.UU.LU .LCu L'U a more rational use of the electric transmission system through the addition o1. tiVore We.L' s. ILrLrLigaLton nAL -ImprLoVedU a gricLULtur arL Ue'Lng UeVeloUpe through cooperation with the Pakistan Academy for Rural Development at C..omlla which has1 poLUViLUU rLL extension director sin.ce iUd-19766 and the crops that have been developed in the project area are generally good. 2.13 In 1963 IDA granted a credit of US$9.0 million for the Chandpur project, a combined irrigation and flood protection scheme covering 127,000 1/ acres. The irrigation features were dropped in late 1965 and the credit reduced to US$5.25 million. Work proceeded on tne flood controiL features but these too were halted early in 1967 and the remaining proceeds oLf thne credit were useud to engage nW corsultarUtLs kin i19O8) LV asULUL zLn the preparation of a revised project which would restore irrigation as a primary feature of the project but on a substantially modified Dasis as compared with the original project. Whereas, under the original project, irrigation distribution was to have been accomplished by means of canals elevated above the terrain (which involve high construction costs and extensive land acquisition), the revised project would make use of natural drainage channels requiring the acquisition of very much less land. W'ater would be lifted from the drainage channels by means of portable low-lift pumps. Finally, flooding within the project area would be eliminated gradually over a period of several years to allow farmers time to adjust to the new cropping conditions provided by water control (see para. 5.04). in April 197u !DA granted a credit of US$13.0 million to assist in finan- cing completion of the Chandpur project, as revised. 1/ Later changed to 140,000 acres gross (/5,000 acres net). - 12 - 2.14 The idea of using low-lift pumps for irrigation distribution within polder-type projects such as Chandpur is a recent development since, as indicated above, low-lift pumps have been used on a significant scale in E-at Pakistan or.l during the past four or f 0Ve years. "Ue layout of f ieldC channels for water distribution within a typical 50-acre area served by a low-lift pup, while impeded by the fragmtented holdings -.d small p'ots, is far less complex and less land consuming than what would be required for a conventional gravity system. ,/ PriLmaril.y ecause of quick luenefits obtaLn- able during the dry season, low-lift pump irrigation is catching on quickly 4n East PziD 1stan. Without sizab.le engineering work-s 'or primary pumping - u ~NELJ L.L * VL 9 LYLL.L L .LU± JLLiI L L rWL,13 L~ upn from the larger rivers however, the scope of low-lift pumping using peren- niaL low flows of the smaller rLvers xs limLted (the present estimate is about 1,500,000 acres). Besides simplifying land acquisition, the use of low-life pu-m-p8 aLiU ntaturaL chlannieLs i1or water diseribution nhas several other important advantages. One advantage concerns conservation of water supply. Take Cnandpur as an example. An embankment will completely surround the project area thus forming a "polder". Water will bL'e iLntrodLuceUd iLnto thLe poldUer eithLer by gravity -wilen river stages are high) or by means of a large primary pumping station (when river stages are !ow). Water thus introuduceu will be distributed throughout the polder via the natural drainage channels from which it will be relifted by the low- lift pumps. The waste water (water not actually consumed by crops) will return to the drainage channels but will never leave the polder. Water will thus be recirculated within a "closed system". (Waste water is very high -- as much as 75 percent of the water that is actually supplied to farmers' fields. Tne high wastage results from the fact that it is impracticable to install a rational distribution system because of the unusually small and fragmented holdings. In the Chandpur project area the average holding is 2 acres and this is fragmented into as many as i0 pieces.) The "closed system" differs from an "open system" of the gravity type (such as that of Ganges Kobadak project) wherein waste water leaves the project area. 1/ In the long run, once the value of irrigation is fully understood by the farmers they will gradually realize that not only can they irrigate and cultivate more efficiently if their holdings are consolidated but also that the system of water distribution can be simplified. Such simplifications would include: (a) more rational layout of field channels, thus reducing maintenance costs and water wastage; (b) re- placement of some of the portable pumps by fixed installations of larger capacity serving a larger area, with resulting economies of scale (to accomplish this might require some gravity canals). - 13 - In the "closed system" the low-lift pumps recirculate waste water so that only "make-up" water needs to be supplied. The primary pumping station serving the closed system does not need to supnnlv waste water as does one serving an open system. The make-up water equals in volume the crop requirements ("consump-- t-lvp uisse") nlun minor lnnsse sueh an evapnratinn frnm the water surfaces of the drainage channels, seepage at the periphery of the nnplder And 1nekAQe loasse (at navigatrin lrocks). While precise data are not now available it is certain that the aggregAta nf these minor losses is far loan than thea onnatino wastes associated with an "open system". A second advantage is that farmers pay operating costs of the will be heavy at first but will be gradually eliminated. The operating cost will thus act as an incer.tive to rce water consumption. A third advantage is that the closed system provides maximum 1. .cA.LU-L .5. Ly &LI0 L .5 &6 At. uO g L.L a w.U: VaL L=Cy VUL %.;LUJP O . L can be expected that at least in the beginning high water- requirement crops sauch arS Lboro rice will ble introduced. Excessively large canals would be required with an open gravity systm. heras,with1 a closedI system,, the natural channels s ys~ temI i~ WLI4. Lil L±U~ ui L~il LLI LIIULL LIL iL± (which supply only make-up water) can more easily supply the hl g'-water-requ'rem,en' crops. LIL5IItO L~(JL IIL.LLUf 2.15 Sir,ce its formation, ELrwrDA has devoted much elfort to project preparation. Feasibility studies have been completed for more than 40 projects and' are uniuerway Lor abuout anothler 10 projects. 2.1 Following a request made inr May 1968 by UVP to the Bank, the East Pakistan Agriculture and Water Development Bank Group conducted a review of 32 proJects tiatL "Er"t%VI, iLLdUiLcaU shIUU.LU bU cs11bdeUCLeU LUL inclusion in the Fourth Five Year Plan (1970/75). This review involved an examilaLtlon of feasibiltLy reports Lor the 32 projects supplemented by field trips to most of the project sites and discussions with EPWAPDA and its project consultants. l/ ine review, wnicn was completed in August 1.969, confirmed an earlier judgement that had been reached by the Bank Group 2/ namely that, while the feasibility studies prepared by or for EPWAPDA up to that time contained much valuable information, there were certain defi- ciencies needing correction. Besides tne problem of irrigation distribution, i/ Summarized in report entitled "Observations on Water Development Projects, Fourth Five Year Plan", Octoher 23, 1969. 2/ Report of November 1967 Mission, May 21, 1968. - 14 - two matters that generally had not received adequate treatment were: economic analysis and project organization especially as regards agricultural inputs. (For more detail see Chapter 4 under Multi-purpose Projects.) 2.17 An opportunity to solve these questions in an integrated manner arose in 1968 in connection with the Chandpur project (para. 2.13). The consultants engaged at that time worked in close cooperation with the East Pakistan Bank Group in revising the project as regards irrigation distri- bution and organizational aspects. In connect with the latter, the con- sultants, following discussion with agencies other than EPWAPDA (e.g. the Agriculture Department and the ADC), recommended an organization that could deal with oroiect implementation at the farmers' level. A revised feasibi- lity study along these lines, which was completed in September 1969, formed the basis for an appraisal by IDA of the second construction credit for this project in the amount of $13 million (see para. 2.13). This credit will enable comnletion of construction (bv EPWAPDA) as well as the establi- shment of a project implementing organization which the Government has decided will be the resnonsibilitv of the Department of Agriculture. The organization will include personnel for agricultural extension; plant pro- tection: installation, operation and maintenance of pumps; and assistance to cooperatives. All such personnel will be deputed from existing Govern- ment agenciePs and w411 be under the control and supervision of a Proiect Director appointed by the Secretary of Agriculture. (For further detail on the rhAndnuir nrnioet see Chanter 3-) 2.18 A qernnd case arose in mid-1969 in connection with the Dacca Southwest project (net irrigable area 270,000 acres). A feasibility study for this proJect, which covers an area about three times that of Chandpur, was completed in March 1968. The Bank after detailed evaluation of the available infora-tion concrlutdmed that Dacrca Southwest was basically a technically and economically sound project, but that further work on organ- izational aspects, on the repayment prnhlem a,nd nn certain technical features (especially as regards design of the flood embankments) would be needed prior to a"r,.4anl nf a redirt fnr rnnital investment The Bank therefore proceeded to appraisal of an engineering credit which would llow the project to proceed to fina1 en4ineerlnra w4hilr gncu,rrneOtv rF- vising the March 1968 feasibility study so as to eliminate its defici- ecies ZA_ TnA _ ., - -.-.A 4- n- cemQ er a f99n e amou,nt of £L .LJ C- S . -_ E Cn v_ S £ A - - w 6 $800,000 for this purpose on the basis of which construction could begin .January . I J.1 jJULUU LIOa.. IJ*UAS.A.lt S4l Jar,uary I971 provided that6 fina.ncin can lbe ar.r.-nged. i efl A ....l. TN A e~..4 .A4.1- 4." , ~9LLnA AA 2.19 ~ t A - s'.lar IAer,gineering crei in the wamount of $,0,0 covering the Karnafuli and Muhuri projects was granted in June 1970. The net irrigable areas are 6 7,00 ar.d4,000 acres respectively. 2.20 Besides the three construction cred;ts (fparas. 2.1, 2.11 -.d 2.13), the engineering credits for the Dacca Southwest project (para. 2.18) and the Karnafuli and Muhuri projects (para. 2.19), and the formation of the East Pakistan Bank Group (para. 2.16), there has been one further important item of assistance to EPWAPDA by IBRD/ID'A. mnis has been the - 15 - financing to the extent of US$2.0 million which together with $1,947,300 from the United Nations Development Program will pay for the foreign exchange cost of general consultants to EPWAPDA during an initial two-year period starting in early 1969. General consultants to EPWAPDA during the previous eight-year period (1961-68) had been financed by USAID. Advice on management aspects 1/ had been provided by a group of three specialists from the Department of Water Resources, State of California; this assis- tance, from 1965 to 1969, was also financed by USAID. The scope of work for the new general consultants, which is similar to that of the former one, includes assistance to EPWAPDA with respect to basic policy, plans and programs related to water and power development; also the development of an efficient organization to plan, finance, construct, operate and maintain water and power development projects. The General Consultants' assistance is divided into three parts: services to the Water Wing of EPWAPDA, services to the Power Wing and services to all parts of EPWAPDA. in the field of management (the scope of work thus covers what had formerly been the concern of the California team). A highly significant part of the General Consultants' work is in the field of project preparation and final engineering. The General Consultants do not do this directly but rather through separate project consultants whose work the General Consul- tants assist in monitoring. The General Consultants also assist EPWAPDA. in the drawing up of specific terms of reference for the project consulting firms in their selection and in review of aualifications of the specialist personnel actually assigned. 1/ Tnne1 iedp development of program And f-niidrt-t i-nnt-i-rla. imfrntvrme"!:s in accounting procedures and inventory controls; and improvements i n organizational 8tiucture nand in -irso.n.nel development Jncu-ding st.:ff training. - lb - CHAPTER 3 TNCREASING OUTPUTT FPROM. IISTc'INC( PROJ T,TC Coastal Embankments 3.01 Among the six principal existing projects, the Coastal Embank- _l A 0 S_ A A *F_ 1 _vA A {() { tl 4 1 1 I 1; I _ _1{ III[LL3 .LD Uy Lar LLALe largest. rt SUM1I tGL M.'V. -LX.L.Lon \LULAotl eq{UivadALen) has been invested up to now. The project hlas thus far concentrated on flood protection against oceanic tid'es. Dlespixte benefits obtained fror,- L £IJIU VL L ±J L L . LL. L U~* u p t UI~L.Li (l. dLLU 1L01 such protection, much larger benefits could be obtained through interior water uadnagerierit andU provLsiLon of agriLcu.LturaL 'iLnuts. Water management would have several facets including: (a) introduction into the polders o0 nlon-sal'lne riveL WaLteL dIIU 1 Lts uiLsLtriuLon uv various means; (b) conservation of natural rainfall mainly through adoption by farmers of proper cultural practices; and (c) development or deep as weli as shallow groundwater to the extent available. Preliminary information is available with respect to thLie extert of areas thilat coulu be developed by the first means -- it might cover 1.5 million acres or about half the total area of the coastal embankments. Closure of some of the tidai estuaries might extend this area considerablv but the feasibility of such schemes can be determined only arter detailed study (see water study of the Southwest region, described in Chapter 5). The extent to which the other two methods are applicable is not known at tue present time. 3.02 Because of its size (3,000,000 acres of which 1,000,000 acres now have fiood protection with the embankments for an additionai 500,000 acres partially completed), remoteness, and various technical and socio- logic complexities, the Coastal Embankment area will require special treatment and effort. Such special effort appears well justified in view of the large potential of the area and the relativeiv low capital investments required. The speed with which the potential of the area can be realized will depend primarily on the resolution ot organizational and institutional problems. The Bank is prepared to send to Pakistan a special mission to assist the Government in formulating, in the first instance, the institutional framework needed. Concurrently, "pilot polders" for demonstrating the value of water management and agricultural inputs can be advanced as well as technical studies for their gradual extension to a major part of the entire coastal embankment area. 3.03 Phase I of the Coastal Embankment Project consists of 86 polders enclosing an aggregate area of about 2 million acres. As of Julv 1970, 61 polders will have been completed, enclosing about 1 million acres. Of the remaining 25 polders, some construction has been started on 17. "Group A" designates the Phase I polders which are either com- pleted or started (78 polders covering 1.5 million acres) while "Group B" - 17 - designates thie 8 remaining polders (covering 0.5 million acres) not yet started. The Group A polders are scheduled for completion by EPWAPDA in 1970-71 and 1971-72 at a cost of $40 million. These polders have had nublic acceptance in varving degrees. 3.04 The Group A polders need additional project planning and water management to mitigate the loss of beneficial fresh river overflow in some areas and to increase the water supply and management in all the polders. The Group B polders have been deferred due to unacceptance by the public primarily because they would interfere with freshwater in- flows during October and because intensive polder planning will need to be completed before construction can properly resume. For these reasons construction expenditures will be minimal in Group B for the next three vears with emphasis on proiect plannin2 as is indicated in Table 1. 3.05 Phase II construction would be deferred to nermit nolder by polder project planning and management studies to be completed with a construction start scheduled for 1972-73. An overall manaopmpnt ass1 st- ance program, including all facets of implementation from management of water s,nnlv- oneration of nhvyiral works; anrirultiirnl Pyt-pnsion t1hrotigh advisory services at all levels has been programmed for the entire Coastrl Fmhankment nroniert as indirated in Tahle 1. The mAnaoement as- sistance program, together with the project planning studies now proposed, ion,lld he- direrted toward cnluing the many problems of pro4ect1 4plemIn- tatton including the development of a viable overall organization to direct the proj,ect. f it", Th fnl 1 vaL WoULU llVav a groUs area Ut 2J57U0U0 acres and a net area of 150,000 acres. The project is located in the South- east region (see para. 1.16). in 1965, a large regulator structure (drainage sluice) was completed by EPWAPDA near the mouth of the Little Feni river to prevent tidal inundation and saline water intrusion. This structure, a preliminary design for which was contained in the IECO report of October 1961 entitled !!Little Feni and Noakhaii Regulators", has been described above in connection with the Muhuri project (see para 4.76). 4.157 As observed from the air, the Little Feni river contains many meanders. Some channel improvement work (cut-offs and iow dikes) have been constructed during the past ten years by EPWAPDA. It appears that addition- al flood prevention works in the lower portion of the Little Feni river, just upstream of the existing regulator, might have good justification, particularly if planned in conjunction with a possibie scheme tor water transfer to the Muhuri river (see description above of the Muhuri project). 4.158 Irrigation of the Little Feni project area, like flood control, would probably have to proceed in stages. Much would depend upon further development of the possible scheme, just mentioned, involving transfer of water from the Dakatia river to the Muhuri river via the Little Feni river. In working out such a scheme, the long-range requirements for the Comilla- Noakhali project, which adjoins the Little Feni project area on the west would also have to be taken into account. The first step, therefore, in the study of the Little Feni project should be a study, on a reconnaissance basis, of the proposed Dakatia-Little Feni-Muhuri water transfer. As pointed out in the discussion of the Muhuri project (paras 4.79 and 4.81) a highly important benefit from such a scheme would be navigation. Such a study has in fact already been programmed as part of the Karnafuli-Muhuri engineering credit (see paras 4.52, 4.79 and 4.86). 4.159 The reconnaissance study of the water transfer is expected to be ready by about April 1971. A feasibility study for the first phase of the Little Feni project could be started about January 1, 1972 and, taking into that considerable information would already be available from the reconnais- sance study, the feasibility study could be completed by the end of 1972. The final engineering could start July 1, 1972, that is, before the feasi- bility study has been completed. Using procedures as have been worked out for other projects, construction could proceed on the basis of outline draw- ings and it could start in December 1973. As indicated in Table I, a four- year construction period has been assumed. The capital investment required for a Phase I proiect covering a gross area of 140,000 acres and a net area of 90,000 acres, has been estimated at $30 million total equivalent. 4.160 The Comilla-Noakhali Project lion maluly itn the Dakat{A R1ver drainaae basin in the Southeast ragton of I'ast P'akintan anli covern a gross area of 892,000 acres (see para. 1.16). The area is bordered on the East bv the Little Feni and Muhuri project areas and by the Chandpur project (now under construction) on the southwest. 4.161 Present agricultural practices in the Comilla-Noakhali project area are li.Led princiLpO.Aly by floodin, which ir.volves fresa as we'll as saline water. Cropping intensity is presently only 146 percent. Yields are Low and BJ lluul L' L8le pr'LL ciLpa'l crop occupyiLng about 6I8I percer,t oL the cultivated land. Judging from the recent studies at Chandpur and Dacca Soutnwest where croppiiig P"L1Ut z i flooding conditons are: - imi-la-Ir, present yields at Comilla-Noakhali could be tripled through water control. 4.162 An IDA credit of $2,400,000 has been granted to the Government of Pakistan to finance revised feasibility stud'es and final engineering of the Karnafuli and Muhuri Projects and consultants have already been engaged by EPWAPDA for this work. Studies of water suppiy ror tne Munuri project will involve investigation of the Meghna River as a source. The flat terrain and the presence of numerous natural drainage channels makes water transfer possibilities promising. On studying the water supply for the Muhuri project, the consultants will conduct a reconnaissance at the Comilla-Noakhali area to determine generally its water needs and its re- lationship to phased developments of water transfer schemes to serve as wiell the Muhuri and the Little Feni projects. Subsequent to such a reconnaissance it will be possible to determine what part of the project should constitute a first-stage development and should be the subject of a detailed feasibility study. Phasing of the project would be a crucial matter in view of its large size. Financial and organizational constraints would also need careful con- sideration before a first-stage project could be selected. 4.163 In planning flood prevention, the existence of the embankments of the Chandpur project in the southwest part of the Comilla-Noakhali project area could be taken advantage of. The drainage divide on the east between the Comilla-Noakhali project area and that of the Little Feni River is indistinct. Topographic surveys and hydrologic studies would be needed to determine whether flood spills are of significance and if so what pre- ventive works may be justified. 4.164 Based upon a knowledge of the topographic, hydrologic, and agri- cultural aspects of the area, it would appear likely that a technically and economically sound project can evolve. 4.165 EPWAPDA and its general consultants should make use of recon- naissance findings for the project, and prepare appropriate terms of reference for feasibility studies. Table 1 indicates the possibility of a construction start December 1, 1973 following procedures as outlined above for the Little Feni project. Based on preliminary data, cost of Phase I of the project (gross area 220,000 acres, net area 160,000 acres) has been estimated at $50 million total equivalent. Project preparation and final engineering would cost $3 and $5 million (total equivalent) respectively. 4.166 Ganges-Kobadak Jessore Unit: A report on Phase II of the Jessore Unit of the Ganges-Kobadak project was prepared by Dr. Mubashir Hasan! con- sulting civil engineer, dated October 1966. There are three units of the - 70 - Ganges-Kobadak project: Kushtia, Khulna and Jessore. The Jessore Unit is f..rer subdA4ivi4Aded 4.into six "hases of which this pr 4 a tha - secon or ~~~~~~~r -- - -_ rJ - _-V Phase II. The report proposes that the Nabaganga River downstream of the MguraPa *t4--r b- used a a source of water supply for easten.. areas thle Fatki River, the central area; and the Chitra River, the southern area. Six puping plan.ts are proposed anA a series of canals fror. the pLuping plants totalling 174 miles in length. Additional works are proposed to pro-vide so..e I Aflo control and Arainage. The gross area is 140,00' acres of which about 105,000 acres is said to be irrigable. 4.167 The report points out that hydrologic data are extremely limited and that char.ges 'I .U L 'lows brougLhIt aLboutL bUecause of the exi'.stiLng Ganges- Kobadak works (see Chapter III) have made many historic records useless. Sinice water supply to the eA.LstL.1g U1-UILL.L. it is Uy LIU me!ansl sULVed as yet, the situation with respect to the Jessore and Khulna units remains obscure. Besides the Garges as a source of supply, another major source that should be considered is groundwater. A third source could be return flow from upstream units, particularly 'n view of the high wastage or water that now prevails (Chapter III). A major part of the return flow from the Kushtia unit will flow to the Jessore and L\1&u±Lna -.iLts. The ydurology of the whole Southwest region is rather complex and actions are needed (see Cnapter 5) that will enable a gradual uwderstandiLng of the problem. Con- currently, however, it should be possible to proceed with the development of portions of the area basea on groundwater. inen, as reilaDie information is generated, surface sources could be utilized as well. 4.168 Quite possibley portions of the area will require drainage im- provements including channel deepening and pumping and these facilities will also affect the water balance and therefore the sequence in which the various portions of the area can be irrigated and drained. 4.169 Whether a system of irrigation distribution based on use of natural channels supplemented by low-lift pumps rather than the gravity canal system proposed would also need investigation. Table 1 indicates preparation of a new feasibility study for the Ganges-Kobadak-Jessore unit (Phase II) at an estimated cost of $2.0 million total equivalent. The table also indicates start of such a study June 1, 1973 with completion a year later. An earlier start of such a feasibility study does not appear prac- tiable in view of the need for previous progress on the Southwest Region Water Study (see Chapter V). Manpower Requirements 4.170 Engineering: Manpower requirements to carry out the engineering for the projects listed in Table 1 (includes the special studies and basic date programs described in Chapter V) are likelv to present serious problems. A largo number of expatriato specialists would be nceded in the first three years 1970/71 to 1972/73. Eveni assuming that thte home-office forces of the consultants will make up part of the work force and that there will be a - 71 _ maximum participation by Pakistani consultants and Government forces, the ex- patriates required to reside lr. Eas t Paklstan, fr the EPWAPDA nrn4ertr alone, total about 125 in 1970-71 and would increase to about 225 in 1971- 72 an.d 1972=73. Presently abouit An oe natr-4nrt e.nQ1ai,1tnntQ are naanocla with EPWAPDA projects and this number would have to be retained; the total require.uents for thtese tw years is thua 285. Paklst-anl pro^fesiral o4r. sultant needs will also be high with a 1970-71 demand estimated at about 200 increasin.g to .about 350 in 1071=72 -nA 1072=73 S 1 pf East Pakistan in absorbing these personnel needs, particularly in regard to hae expa tAr atS _. Expeienc Af AindicateC _4S -. . 4 A-A- -- eS&S A O-.t..AClA-- 4- 1 .-.S SlSC CA~~~~~~~taLL -..R - - 5 ^C f ^= z^> - - a X - - W16z 1 ^^J of expatraites will create public relations problems which must be dealt w.Ltitl carefully and at an ear'Ly ulate. Housing neeAs .-.ust be met if recruAlt ment is to be successful. Approval of consultants by the Government must be pror.mpt and eilficient. Salary scaLes must be reaL t'Lc andu attract'Lve. Schooling and medical needs for families will have to be recognized. EquLp- ment or alA. Klinu's suc[n a auLomobiles, office machlitGnes aridU enginXeLing.LL fin-- struments must be on hand when needed. While an effort should be made to locate consuiltants' offices outsiue of Dacca, practLca.l conssiderati'ons reLat- ing to location of Pakistani key agencies, facilities and information in- dicate that a large portion of the expatriates must De absorbed in Dacca. In addition to the need for consultants, EPWAPDA will face a large manpower need to assimilate the expanded program. Other agencies such as tne Surv,ey of Pakistan will also require increased manpower. EPWAPDA will need engineering staff, and a sizable body of sub-professional personnei ror operation and maintenance as the program progresses although this need will develop more slowly than that which will develop with the planning and con- struction of projects. If recruitment of consultants is unsuccessful due to failure to meet all the essential requirements cited above, slippage in the program listed in Table 1 will inevitably occur. The starting and completion dates shown for project preparation, tinal engineering and con- struction for the various projects listed assume that all the actions described above will be carried out without delays. To speed up adminis- trative actions concerned, such as approval of consultants' contracts and approval of individuals to be resident in East Pakistan, existing pro- cedures need to be streamlined, which may involve granting EPWAPDA more autonomy in such matters. GOEP has indicated its willingness to consider the necessary administrative changes. 4.171 Agriculture: In Chapter 5 of Volume I, a discussion of agricul- tural manpower required for both irrigated and non-irrigated areas indicates a shortfall of both Union Agricultural Assistants and Thana Agricultural Officers. Present training facilities are inadequate and both shortfallEs will get progressively worse (reaching a peak by 1974/75) unless a special training project is undertaken without delay. Such a project has been described in Chapter 5 of Volume I. Agricultural Production 4.172 Table 3 contains a projection of the incremental agricultural production obtainable from the water development projects broken down according to low-lift pumps, non-intensive tubewells (constructed by ADC), - 72 - intensive tubewells (constructed by EPWAPDA) and multi-purpose projects. The proiection is Riven for the years 1971/72 through 1980/81. and an additional projection is shown for the year 1985/86. The projects included in makinR the vroiection are the three existing projects described in Chapter 3 (GK-Kushtia, Coastal Embankments and Chandpur) and the short-range proJects described in this Chapter 4. As has been indicated in Table 2, portions of the later phases of the Coastal Embankments and of these short- range proiects have been included in the projection to 1985/86 even though the capital investments indicated in Table 1 cover only the initial phases of the Coastal Embankments and of the larger multipurpose proiects (Pabna. Little Feni, Barisal and Comilla-Noakhali). The areas irrigated and provided with flood nrotection may be summarized as follows (in thousands of acres) 1/: Flood Irrigated Protection Present (1969-70) 860 -S80 2/ 1975-76 3,280 3,480 1980-81 5.960 5.730 1985-86 8,070 6,700 Ul11 t- imanq tep 10Q380 8;050 4.173 Th.e nasmptions *Red in mAking thp nroiections were as follows! a. Th.e inrePmPntal area irri4gated by low-lift numns would be 300,000 acres by 1971/72 building up to 1.1 m411ion acres in 1976/77. Therenfte-r it would decrease to 0.5 million acres in 1979/80 and would then remain constantt. The decrease is to nllow for the fact that an area of approximately 1.0 million acres overlaps with the EPWAPDA multi-purpose pro4ect areas. b. The incremental area irrigated by non-intensive tubewells would amount to 50,000 acres in 1971/72 increasing to 800,000 acres in 1978/79 (this assumes 1,I 0 AAA nt t-ublewe'lJls b-y that d4at"e). ThS.ereafter the area irrigated by these tubewells would decrease to about 30,00 Aacre by 1985t86.The reason for the decrease is because the area served would progressively be taken over by the intensLve-type tbe-WelI deve'Lom nUe. 1/ Area presently irrigated of 860,000 acres (see footnotes 2 to 7 in Table 2) has been added to grand total in Table 2. Area protected against floods in Brahmaputra Right Bank project (footnote 6) has also been added. 2/ Includes 1,000,000 acres in Coastal Embankment area. - 73 - c. The intensive tubewell projects would have dates of start of rnnstruction as in Table 1. No area irrigated until 2 years after start of construction; thereafter fu:ll area irrigatPd rearhed after vpyars. The incrpmentAl area irrigated would build up to 1.0 million acres by 1980/81 and to 2.2 milio-n scres by 1Q85/86= d. The EPWAPDA .ulti-purpose projects Jnrl,ide tihe 12 "rnaw projects" in the short-range list and the 3 partially co..pleted existingprJcs(osa bnk.t,GK Kushtia and Chandpur -- see Chapter 3). Dates of start 0f construc4ouldben ul A e a. i. Table 1. No ara 4irri4gated until 3 years after start of construction; thereafter, Cul1 area irrigated reachned- from, I t-o 7 years later- depending on size of project. The incremental area irrigated would reach 3.0 .million acres 4n 1980/81 -ar. 4.2 million acres in 1985/86. e. The areas "effectively irrigated" in all cases except th_at of the low=lift pumps equals In percent of: the L.ILI J..U Lil L . LL' .L U. L A/ASiO S D..D J ~J J S.L& .il L&LC incremental area irrigated during the first year, 60 percent Lthle secondA year andA 90J percent hIe third year. (Total elapsed period to reach 90 percent would thus be years LUo tUbCWell prLUJLet DanU LUo UIULL-pULrpose projects it would be from 6 to 10 years depending on the size of' the proJect area.) Ln thie case of tLe low-lift pumps, the incremental area effectively irrigated would be 40 percent the first year, 80 percent the second, and 90 percent the third year. f. For the multi-purpose projects, incremental production in tons was assumed equal to the area effectively irrigated times 3.0 tons. The latter figure was obtained from the Chandpur II appraisal report (in Volume IV), Annex 4, Table 4, taking future production at 341,000 tons (224,000 tons of paddy rice, which is equivalent to 150,000 tons of clean rice, plus 19i,000 tons of short-season crops) and present production at 85,000 tons (42,000 tons of clean rice plus 43,000 tons of short- season crops). The difference is 256,000 tons for a cultivated area of 89,000 acres or 2.9 tons per acre. The irrigated area is however only 75,000 acres which would give 3.4 tons per acre. To be conservative, 3.0 tons per irrigated acre was used. For the intensive and non-intensive tubewells projects, these tonnages per acre were assumed 2.5 and 2.0 respectively. The latter figure was obtained from the appraisal report included in Volume 1V. A slightly higher tonnage was assumed for the intensive tubewell projects since these would be located within a concentrated georgraphical area. For the low-lift pumps the tonnage was assumed at 1.2 tons per acre since the benefit is primarily from boro rice only. - 74 - Periodic Review of Projects 4.174 It is proper and indeed imperative to proceed with the water devel- opment nroiects "in the pipeline" as above outlined. These proiects all have high rates of economic return, involve no technical difficulties and can be integrated into a lone-range Province-wide plan of water development includ- ing flood control (see para 4.176). During the next few years efforts will he made by other agencies to nrenare nurelv agricultural-innut nroiects (improved seeds, fertilizers, pest control and credit). It is possible that some of these nroierts will have rates of return hiQher than the water de- velopment projects. Moreover some of these projects could be in competition for the same finanrial and/or mannower resources. On the other hand, as several of these possibilities are at this stage only speculative, there is no reason to delay proceeding with steps toward imnlementation of the water development projects as has been outlined above. At the same time, it must be realized that the overall cost of the water program comes to $932.1 mIl- lion total equivalent (see Table 1), and that to carry out a program of this size ad 4r --codace with the Ates indAirated in Table 1 would require an effort of unprecendented magnitude. The manpower constraint, has been dis- -ussed ahbove and it was indirated that this contraint alone, as its effect is better understood, might have to require some shift (hopefully not more than asyear or two) in the dates for start of construction of some of the projects in Table 1. In order to evaluate properly the combined effects of marnpower and fina.cial constraints and of the com.etition for these resources by other projects, the array of projects "in the pipeline" should be subject to periodic review on an annual basis. This should obviously apply to all projects and should be done in cooperation with the Planning Department, ~%EP, -4t.ose staff would h-ave t-o be strengthened for this purpose (see_ Volume I). Short-Range Projects -- Summary 4.175 From Table 2 and 4.172, the short-range projects may be regrouped as follows (thousands of acres): - 75 - Flood Irrigation Protection 1985-86 Ultimate 1985-86 Ultimate Low-lift pumps - Existing 700 700 - - - Future 500 500 - - 1,200 1,200 Tubewells - Existine 110 110 - - - Future 2,S00 2,500 - - 2,610 2,610 Multipurpose projects - Existing 50 50 1,580 1,580 - Future 4;170 6,480 5-120 6-470 4-220 6,593 6,7t00 8,A05 Total - Existing 860 860 1,580 1,'i80 - Future 7,170 9,480 5,120 6,470 Grand Total 8,030 10,340 6,700 8,050 4.176 With respect to the tubewell area, it was assumed that this would 4ncrease by 1O9.8.5-86 t- 2,610,000 ac re an icasof 2, 5090,0 00 acres over the existing area. Although the figure of 2,610,000 acres is less than that - *-.S lt1f ,...__ (n,w, I 1~' _ A , ^ _n -k l. * . aA ^ ffd . hAA1-uAs AA^^F @' Vf LthC favorale zone fypaa 4..t6)/ a-d can IL_ J^. _-L e e e a a tLarge, .L- is obvious that further investigations, as described elsewhere in this volu.,ie, will be neeAeA before the figure can be confl-e.Wt rsett vJ.Lua WL.t A. IJ * uC~A LaUJ I~ *.1t tOl L' .ft.~&I~A l. LI CO.L L L. the multipurpose projects, there are a total of 18 involved: 6 existing (of -WI-ich. 3 are oupleteUd)% anA 12 r.ew or.es - in other wordUs 1.5 prOJe s on, which major works are in the future. With one exception, there are no technicalconsta ts4 A pA reventa 4 nm-. . A9 1 A-V-1.pM-t aC thesA 1 - -Jc 4ta ea amplen LCLIILL3.LC.L UVI;AISILO L 03.1110 W VI..LI L.LIlfl ab_ vMI.-J V~4.IJjJLI._Z ~ .A .Ot.- - v On r._J technical data exist (topography, hydrology and soils) and there are no un- resolveA lechnlcal problems of consequence. The one exception. is the Coast- al Embankment project where full development (including water management) is clearly attainable only -in h0alf. tIe proJect area (see para 3L.11). FVull development of the remaining half will probably have to await results -- as the-y become available -- of a special study of the Southwest Region.; see Chapter 5. The ultimate irrigable area, with this adjustment, would be reuuceu fror, a abou 91I.-illi acres. Theu LL.L±mate area with flood protection would however remain at about 8.1 million acres. 4.177 As above outlined, the "short-range" projects cover 9.1 million acres of irrigation (of w,.lch 0.9 million existing) and 8.1 million acres or flood prevention (of which 1.6 million existing). Development of additional "long-range"t projects are descrived in Chapter 5. - 76 - CHAPTER 5 NEW PROJECTS -- LONG-RANGE 5.01 For the development of additional water-control projects beyond those described in Chapters 3 and 4, technical constraints both with respect to unresolved technical problems and availability of basic data become cru- cial. To overcome these constraints, various "special studies' will be needed. However, before discussing these, it is useful to consider the two main areas of technical constraints -- the flood control aspects and the water balance aspects -- and to consider how these affect the four regions into which the Province can conveniently be subdivided. Flood Control Aspects 5.02 As explained above, the 12 new and 5 existing multipurpose proiects cover a gross area of 8.1 million acres. The Coastal Embankment project will provide protection basically against ocean flooding. Protection against other types of flooding (spill from the rivers and from excess rainfall backed up by high river stages) would thus amount to about 5.1 million acres. 5.03 The average area flooded in the monsoon season in East Pakistan is from 8 to 10 million acres but 17 million acres are subiect to flooding from time to time. Thus even with 5.1 million acres protected, a flood problem of considerable magnitude would remain. The problem of Drotectine the remaining areas becomes moreover progressively more complex and involv- ing cnnsidprahle risks- East Pakistan consists of a larve delta located at the confluence of the Ganges and Brahmaputra -- two of the world's largest rivprR- They carrv at maximum stagp higher flood flnw than most rivers in the world and their sediment load (2.4 billion tons annually) exceeR thnt nf anv other river Rvytem in thp wnrld Rpratiie of their enormous transporting power, the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers have eov-.rienced ma4nr shifta of their ehbnnnln in recent rentu,riepa Attemptnts to contain these rivers by "double embankments" may be extremely hazardous because of the very real danger of overtopping and breaching of the con- taining embankments and the impracticability of quickly evacuating the den.sel, populated zones in the areasa nrotected b the embran,k,ments,. (With one minor exception, none of the 17 projects mentioned in the preceding paragraph would involve double embankments. The one exception 4i the Dacca-Southwest project, the upper part of which would include over a stretCG of bout0 84 -les an embar.cmn.t paralleling the existing Breh,anutw Right Bank Embankment. However such limited extent of double embanking ts not considered serious afld ing fact wille proviof cost.rucion-. e below to be observed carefully following completion of construction -- see below with regard to flood models and observations on prototypes.) The problem of flood control is further complicated by the lack of materials, princi- pally stone and gravel, that are required in the construction of works for river training and embankment revetment (the need for such work becomes intensified once double embanking is embarked upon on a significant scale) and by the fact that little is known about the ultimate effect of upstream projects (in India) that involve embankments (and even some double embank- ments). 5.04 While elimination of flooding is clearly crucial to East Pakistan -- whether in human or economic terms -- it must nevertheless be remembered that the local farmers have over the centuries adjusted remarkably to the annual cycle of inundation. This is most evident with respect to the prevailing crops grown, especially long-stem broadcast aman (also called "floating rice") which, although low-yielding, not only tolerates flooding but actually depends on it. Higher yielding transplanted aman is also widely grown where flooding depths are shallow and rainfall is favorable. Water control, through elimination of deep flooding and provision of irri- gation, will permit planting of higher yielding varieties but it must be realized that sudden changes may not always be acceptable to or manageable by the farmers. Three examples come to mind in this connection. One is the Coastal Embankment project; elimination of fresh-water flooding in some of the polders included in the project has forced consideration of "1water management" in the interior of the polders. Another is Chandpur, where it is proposed that flooding be eliminated gradually over a period of several years to allow farmers time to adjust to the new conditions. A third example is the Brahmaputra Right Bank area where farmers have largely adjusted to elimination of flooding but where it is evident that further major benefits are realizable through introduction of irrigation. Water Balance Aspects 5.05 During the course of the next 3 to 5 years, provided that the program of projects, studies and basic data gathering as outlined herein proceeds, a growing body of information on the hydrology of East Pakistan will become available. With this information "water balance studies" wiLl become possible, first on a regional basis and ultimately on a province- wide basis. Such water balance studies will be essential to assist in establishing the priorities of further proiects to be developed in the future and in evaluating their effects on water supply requirements for various uses including irrigation, navigation and fish culture. 5.06 The water balance studies will also be useful in considering the relative priorities as between the development of groundwater on the one hand (nee descrintion of the US Geolotecal Survey-assisted study in Chapter 4) and major surface water diversions by means of major structures like the Ganges and Brahmanutra barrages on the other (see below under Special Studies). 5.07 Insofar as the 17 multipurpose projects are concerned, it is felt that allocation of water use during approximately the next decade or two will present no problem. The reasons are given in the following subparagraphs: a. Of the 17 proiects, those that depend on the flow of the Brahmaputra River are as follows: 1/ Chandpur 75,000 acres (net) Dacca Southwest (Polders 1 and 4) 260,000 " " Muhuri 42,000 Pabna (2/3 of area assuming 1/3 from groundwater) 200,000I " " Belkuchi 70.000-,, Little Feni 150,000-"' Upper Kushiyara 40,000 Khowai 33,000 Gomitla-Noakhali 650_00O-' " Barisal 830,000- Total 2,350,000 acres (net) b. To the above should be added the area irrigated during the drlv season hb lnw-lift numns under the AMC nrogram The total area in that program may in a few years reach about 1,500,000 acres but a large nart of this would he included within the areas of many of the projects listed above while another part would nnt hge serued hv treams of the nrahmanutra svstem= Current information is inadequate to estimate how much area is in these two parts and how ich in the remainder; A a rough guess it would be some 500,000 acres. c. In the future other projects such as the Faridpur Unit of the 'ov4 Ano,_Rr-flav4 l nrnn4prt lnnl the qiireaquwar nrniert (total not- area of these two projects about 800,000 acres) could be deve- loped, possib!y without flood control. It can thus be experraA that in a time period of something like 15 to 20 years (allow- ing ti4- fo:. construction and attainment of full devel-opmennt) the total area requiring surface water from the Brahmaputra coulAd reach about. 3. mllion acres . lt Dacca North with 126,000 acres (net) has been omitted because it would obtain its water supply from the Meghna River downstream of Bliairab Bazaar. The low flow of the lBrahmaputra is assumed equal to the sum of the flow of the Brahmaputra at Bahadurabad and the Meghlna at L3halrab Bazaar (see para. h). 2/ Ultimate development. - 79 - d. All of the polder-type developments within this area would presumably be based on the system conceived for Chandpur. This is a "closed system" and differs funda- mentally from the Ganges-Kobadak type of system (large gravity canals) in that the return flow as well as waste water remains within the polder and does not leave the project area. Thus only "make-up" water needs to be supplied equal to crop water requirements plus losses for: (a) evaporation from the natural drainage channels used as irrigation distributaries (about 1 percent of the irrigated area) and (b) seepage at the periphery of the polder. 1/ The make-up water equals consumptive use plus losses less rainfall. Monthly crop water requirements would appear to be highest during April; however, February may be a more critical month as it is the month of lowest flow of the Brahmaputra River. e. In order of their water requirements ner acre, the nrintipal crops that it is expected will be grown during February and April are as follows: Februarv Anril Boro ric-e, sugarcane, Aus rice, 4ute wheat, vegetables, sugarcane, fruits nutlses oilseeds, fodder, fruits f. Since the water requirement of boro rice is particularly high, the nronortion that will he grown in the future is of great importance. In flood-prone areas, once flods have been prevented, the farmers can be expected to grow two rice crops consisting of aus followed by aman (both making maximum use of kharif rainfall). When. No allowance is made for operating waste and/or seepane in canals or field channels since -- unlike a conventional gravity system -- these wastes will all return to the drainage channels. There should more- over be no operating wastes even if the low-lift pumps operate on]y (sayq) 18 hours instead of 24 hours a day duiring the time of peak cleamnd. This is because the fixed, primary pumps can operate 24 hours a day and there is mnipe snace in the natural drainage system to store even up to 12 hours of primary pumping. An allowance for deep percolal:ion loss is also considered unnecessary since under full year-round ir,ri- gation the water table can be expected to rise (IECO report page B VI]: - 32). An allowance of 0.5" per month should be adequate for the two losses mentioned. - 80 - this is done, boro rice will gradually be eliminated and replaced by a short-season rabi crop. If for present purposes (which is to estimate water requirements during the next one or two decades) it is nevertheless assumed that boro rice will increase in importance in the medium term, a conservative cropping pattern (again from the point of view of water requirements) might be as follows: February April Boro rice 30 - Aus rice - 68 Jute - 10 Sugarcane , 2 2 Other crops-' 63 - Fallow 5 20 Total 100% 100% R. Consumptive use factors for East Pakistan is a matter requiring research. Approximate values can however be estimated from the Blaney-Criddle fo--rmula as was done in the IECO Master Plan report of 1964 (Supplement B, Table B VII-17). Using data for Dacca as reoresentinR average conditions gives weighted average requirements as follows (in inches): February April Rainfall Mean year 1.0 5.8 75% dry year 0.5 3.0 Consumotive use-/ 4.1 6.3 Loss-/ 0.5 0.5 CrFn rFeuirpmunt Mean year 3.6 1.0 7sz drv yeAr 4.1 _ 8 1/ Pulses, oilseeds, wheat, vegetables, fruit and fodder. 2/ K factors as in Table cited: K = 0.2 used for fallow area. 3/ See para. d. - 81 a The number of acres irrigable per cusec then become: February April Mean year 180 700 75% dry year 160 190 h. Use of the 75 percent dry year (1 year in 4) would seem reasonable if assumed to coincide with the low-flow year of record as regards the Brahmaputra. Using an average figure of 175 acres per cusec for both February and April would give a water supply requirement of 20,000 cusecs. In comparison, the minimum monthly flow of the Brahmaputra River 1/ in February is 133,000 cusecs and in April it is 208,000 cusecs. Thus the diversion requirement would be about one-sixth of the minimum February flow and one-eighth of the minimum April flow. i. In para. f. it was mentioned that boro rice could eventually be replaced by aus. This would result in a higher percentage of fallow in February as well as a hiRher vercentage of aus in April. If the fallow percentage for April is reduced to 5 percent and the aus area increased accordingly the diversion requirement for April would increase from about one-eighth to one-sixth. However. diverting one-sixth of the April flow (208,000 cusecs) would be far less serious than diverting one- sixth of the Februarv flow (133.000 cusecs). 1. The fore2oin2 analysis. although admittedly somewhat crude and subject to further refinement, indicates clearly nevertheless that the low flow of the Brahmaputra River is much more than ample to supply an aggregate area of 3.6 million acres. On the other hand. the diversions of the amounts indicated are bound to have some unfavorable effects with respect to navigation; saline-water intrusion and increased pumping lifts affecting the primary pumping 8tations of the nroiee.t mentioned. A pnauihle fartnr tending to mitigate these effects would be the development nf grouniidwater in unatrenTr Areans n in the Northwest region. where advantageous use of storage within the underground aquIfer might reasult in an incresne in the Au4ilable low flow of the Brahmaputra River. In any case there does not appear to be any prospective better use for the amounts dlverted than to devote them to irrigation of the 3.6 m.ill4nnt-r ares no a lsesvc4led Adding flow of the Brahmaputra at Bahadurabad and that of the neghna at Bhairab Bazaar (IECO Report, Voi. i, p. 80). Floating Pumping Stations 5.08 Floating pumping stations have been suggested to provide a means of diverting water from rivers and waterways. Such pumping stations can be designed for a wide range of conditions and sizes but the complexity of design and construction, physical adaptability, cost and economics must be considered in each case, and compared with alter- natives. 5.09 Detailed consideration is already being given to large floating pumping stations to serve the Sureswar and Faridpur projects. These are located on the right bank of the Ganges-Padma river on the opposite bank from the Dacca Southwest project (see Map 1). The floating pumping sta- tions would be located in the Ganges-Padma and connected with the shore by large pipelines floated on pontoons. The General Consultants to EPWAPDA are also studying floating pumping plants designed to fit a range of East Pakistan conditions. 5.10 In comparing costs of floating pumping stations with conven- tional intakes it is most important to fully determine operation and maintenance costs as well as capital costs. Geomorphologic and sedi- mentary conditions are factors that must be fully understood in apprais- ing the alternatives. 5.11 Floating pumping stations of large capacity involve many complexities of engineering design. On the larger rivers, transmission of water from the pump site to the land will involve a long, high- capacity conduit properly anchored, and/or floated on pontoons. Anchor- ing the pumping station and the conduit must be compatible with field conditions. 5.12 With respect to the 12 new multi-purpose projects for the short- range, there appears to be little likelihood for the applicability of floating pumping stations since these projects are all located adiacent to river or stream channels of relatively stable characteristics. Pumping stations of conventional design (these must of course be carefully sited and designed to minimize sediment problems) therefore appear to be better suited. 1/ For the longer-range proiects such as Sureswar and Faridpur. the floating pumping station alternative appears to be worth considering. 1/ This is borne out by experience with the Dacca-Demra pumping station is located or a relatively stable river and has suffered lttle or no difficulty from sediment problems as contrasted with the Ganges- and ahn station wiicr ios (scated on the highly u-stable3 Canges River and lhas suffered seriously (see Clhapter 3). - 83 - 5J. 13 Terms of reLerence fILor feasibility stuUies of thLe long-rarige projects where irrigation is involved should therefore include study of floating pumping stations where conuditiLons are such tnat this alternative appears to have practical application. The General Consultants to EPWAPDA should develop some practical guidelines for determining wnen and under what conditions this alternative should be included in terms of referencesu for consultants making feasibility studies. Regions 5.14 The four regions into which the province can be conveniently subdivided have been described in Chapter 1. The division into four regions is feasible because the hydrologic characteristics of each region is generally distinct. The Southwest region is discussed below under Special Studies. 5.15 For the southeast region practically no special studies will be needed. This is basically because all of the projects in the region are on rivers that are independent of the Brahmaputra-Ganges system. Flood prevention will generally present no technological difficulty (except for the relatively small -- 47,000 acres -- Meghna-Dhonagoda project) and water supply can be obtained mainly from the relatively stable natural channel of the Dakatia River which connects with the Meghna. 5.16 In the northwest region, except for the Belkuchi and Pabna project areas, groundwater rather than surface water may well prove to be a more desirable source of water supply. Of the 4 tubewell projects mentioned in para. 4.25, 3 are in the Northwest region. Further tube- well projects in the region can be expected to be identified. On the other hand, integration of surface and groundwater supplies may well prove advantageous in the long run; a gradual generation of knowledge on this matter would emerge from the proposed special study "Brahmaputra- Ganges-Meghna Complex," described below. 5.17 With respect to the northeast region, projects that are believed should go ahead as rapidly as possible are Dacca Southwest and Dacca North and several relatively small tributary projects such as Upper Kushiyara and Khowai. A tubewell development in the North Mymensingh area also appears feasible and is one of the four projects mentioned in para. 4.25. The so-called Brahmaputra Left Bank Embankment project is located in the Northeast region. It however presents serious technological difficulty and as a preliminary step flood models are needed as described below. 5.18 Most of the remainder of the northeast region is subject to deep flooding from the Meghna. Working out a practicable means of mitigating the effects of such flooding needs a great deal of study. A possible - 84 - approach is that of submersible embankments as has been suggested for the Meghna Dhonagoda project in the southeast region. Alternatively, it could be accepted that the area of deep flooding be set aside for use as a storage reservoir with resulting benefits to flood control as well as low-flow augmentation. Such a scheme, which would be of rather grandiose scale and involving difficult technical problems, could be examined in a preliminary manner as part of the special study "Brahmaputra-Ganges- Meghna Complex." Special Studies 5.19 The special studies needed for the preparation of long-range new projects are as follows: Ganges Barrage and Southwest Region Water Study Model of Southwest Region Flood Models Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex (Preliminary Planning Study) (In addition, various comprehensive studies, which are described in Volume I. would be needed including (a) a study of financing and repay- ment of projects, (b) a manpower study, (c) a study of infrastructure, (d) svstems analvses. and (e) an overall svnthesis. Certain of the comprehensive studies, such as (a) and (b), are crucial for the short- range as well as the long-range prolects.) S 20 GanBes barrage and southwest region water study: By far the largest investments to date have been made in the southwest region. These amount to shout IUSS200 million for the Coastal Emhankment nroiect anei $60 million for the GK-Kushtia project. From the hydrologic point of view, the sou,thwest region is by far the mnot conmplex (see naras 1=12-1=1 This complexity results from the following physical characteristics: a. There is a large tidal range -- of the order of 10 feet; tidal csurges from typhoons may reach elevations 25 feet above mean sea level. b. There are large tidal estuaries whichi vary in width from one to severnaiVl mls GP llre of theea estuaries would provide benefits through elimination of sanlimne-water penetrnation and through flood preven- tion, but would entail major engineering works re- qulring careful study. The effect on fish ecology would also need to be evaluated. - 85 - c. Flows enter the area from the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. The latter is much greater in volume than the former. When the Farakka Barrage in India is completed, the flow from the Ganges River may be re- duced which would increase the saline-water penetration especially in the western part of the region. 1/ d. There is evidence of a large groundwater potential particularly in the western and higher part of the region but actual availability of groundwater needs quantification. The USGS groundwater study program would assist in this effort. e. Thp region iR interlaced with natural rhanneln. These vary greatly in width, depth and state of enlargement or devay Many c-ontrol struitutirpes wotltid hp neepded to enhance drainage, water distribution, capture of return flnow from tinnrpam arpas; navioAtioln and fishpries development. f. EPWAPDA has the intention to proceed with the detailed structural design of n ,nior hArrage across the Ganges River. While such detailed design may be useful, it will be necessarye to stud- the barra-e from a furnc4tioa1 as 'ell as a structural viewpoint. To determine the functional requirements of such a barrage will require consideration of the above five features followed by an analysis of the re-ional water balance. 5.21 A period of a year should be spent in reconnaissance of the southwest region as soon as this can be organized, possibly by January 1971. 2/ Te reonnaissance sh..ould le folowA by. aa. p...aly t year detailed technical study, making four years in all. The purpose of the reconnaissance wonuld be to outline and get agreement on the terms of reference of the detailed study. The services of an agency with experience on large tidal deltas, should ae sought to conduct both the reconnaissance and the detailed study. The cost of the 3-year study is eS-i.MateAa t. d st $5. milon (t otal equilvalent). 2_It-4 Thi Ascnlee 55L.UaL a' -_ .J -j a \~J~'L I-. ~.J VaJL %/ & .I ILIJ0 LO Lo LOLUL~ minimal and in the long run could be exceeded by a substantial amount. 1/ The present average flow during the three low-flow months (March, April and May) is about 66,000 cusecs. The minimum 3-month flow in 35 years of record (1934-68) was 55,000 cusecs in 1953. One year in 7 can be expected to have a flow of about 60,000 cusecs. (From "Ganes Barrage Project", Associated Consulting Engineers, Dacca, 1969.) 2/ Table 1 shows a starting date of January 1, 1972. The reconnaissance would start a year earlier as part of the Comprehensive Study (Chapiter 8, Volume I). - 86 - Uncertainty regarding the cost estimate stems largely from current lack of knowledge regarding the extent ot surveys, measurements and subsurface explorations required. By the end of the reconnaissance it should be possible to firm up the cost of the entire study. Except for the Coastal Embankments (Chapter 3) and Barisal (Chapter 4) projects it seems improbable that initial projects in the Southwest region could be formulated prior to about 1974, assuming that the detailed water study gets underway in 1972. 5.22 Model of southwest region: An indisoensRAhI analvt-irni tonl in carrying out the southwest region water study would be the setting up of a mathematical model. Such a model including it onperat-ion -woul st about $2 million (total equivalent). Based on reconnaissance work that would have been carried out for the Southwent region nQ decrlb4hd in the foregoing paragraph, work on the model could begin July 1, 1971 as indiraterd in Table 1. 5.2i Flood models: Desnite the terhniral difficulties described above, it is recognized that moving forward with a long-range program of flood Drotection should be expedited. 1/ It should also he recognized that since the problem is urgent there may not be sufficient time to rollert all of the nhvsical data normally renuired in rhe s-tudy of s.u. complex technical problems. It may therefore be necessary to proceed with some works that would nrovide nrototypes that can be observed in order to assist further planning and action. An example of such a pro- totvne that might not involve undue risk is that to he provided by apart of the Dacca Southwest project. For projects such as the Brahmaputra Left Rank heowever (narar 517); the risk involved in const-riuct-ion of the pt type would be excessive. To assist in solving the technical problems for evalsinting the risQks for suicih a nro ert twmo helpful steps would be the use of flood models and the establishment of a Flood Consulting Board (see para. 5.30). The flood mndeil wonulfd he of rw0 tt,re: physical and math- ematical. The physical model would consist of a scale model of a repre- sentative reach of the Brahmaputra River, proba-bly in its upper pri between Bahadurabad and Sirajganj. (Other reaches of the river might be modelled a'-so but atl a later stage.) Teeare serixous techiitica'l diffl'- culties involved in the construction and operation of a physical model 1/ This has been pointed out by various leading experts. See: United Nations Water Control Mission, Water and Power Development in East Pakistan (the Krug Mission report), United Nations Technical Assistance Programme, New York, 1959. J. Th. Thijsse, Report onHydWdrology of East Pakistan, May/October 1964. J. Th. Thilsse, Additional Report on liydro ogyof East Pakistan, Harch/Aprri 19065. - 87 - since, Lor exauIple, iLt As ULLLM. asWLL y etL WLLhLet&hL Lthe alluV.iLUm that COr.ELLC.Ati tute the bed and banks of the river can satisfactorily be reproduced in a moue anu Lte tiC v C LU LLC vc.y ra L C xSU.iI3LIL uIuvenutseLL %ueu .L0aLU and suspended load) of the river. Nevertheless because of its crucial importance, it is cnsiduereu enat an attempt to set up a physical modul is well worth the effort. (See also below regarding a physical model oi, a proposed barrage across the Brahmaputra.) 5.24 A mathematical model would also present formidable technical problems but here again, in view of the possible beneficial results and the very major works that mignt uitimately be considered ror constructiDn, the indicated investments shown in Table 1 for the physical and mathemati- cal models are considered justified. Assuming that preparatory work will have been performed by the Flood Consulting Board described below (para. 5.30), it should be possible to start work on the flood models July 1, 1971 as indicated in Table 1. The proposed physical and mathematical models are estimated to cost $2.5 million. 5.25 Brahmapucra-Ganges-Meghna Complex: The construction of a complex involving a barrage across the Brahmaputra River near the international border with provision for diversion of flows to the Meghna Basin and to the Northwest and Southwest regions has been proposed from time to time. The purposes envisaged tor this complex are: to provide partial relief of flooding along the Brahmaputra by diversion through the Old BrahmaputraL River into the Sylhet depression of the Meghna Basin (see para 5.18); to divert irrigation supplies to serve water-deficient areas of the North- west and Southwest regions; and to generate hydro-electric power which could conserve scarce fuel resources and also provide energy which may be required for pump drainage, particularly in the Northeast region. 5.26 Development of an adequate safe design for a barrage across the Brahmaputra River would involve complex problems, particularly with respect to hydrologic and geotechnical features. The design would have to incorporate extensive training works to ensure stable conditions so that the river would not change course. An alternative massive groundwater development (paira 5.36) would have to be studied concurrently. 5.27 From a structural point of view, a barrage across the Brahmaputra would involve technical problems of great magnitude. The barrage would have to pass a very large flood flow (of perhaps 5 million cusecs) and it would have to be constructed on riverbed sediments of unknown depths -- perhaps several hundred feet. The prevention of seepage under such a barrage would require expensive cutoff construction or in lieu of this an extensive blanket probably of clay. To protect the blanket against wave action, rock or concrete blocks would be needed. Rocks and aggregate for concrete are either unobtainable or very expensive. A physical model of such a barrage would be needed to assist in determining the feasibility of any design proposed and also to develop a practical me- thod for excluding sediments from an intake to a link canal on the right bank (required to transfer water to the Southwest region) and from an opening on the left bank (to divert excess flood flows to the channel of the Old Brahmaputra River as a flood control measure). - 88 - 5.2LO in adaition to th-e -model nvestigations, it wouId eventually be necessary, in order to make even rough construction cost estimates, to conduct extensive foundation and material investigations. 5.29 In order to define more specifically the various elements and functions and relate these to projected requirements, a preliminary planning study will precede the detailed investLigations aescriDea in paras 5.27 ana 5.28. This preliminary phase would have an estimated cost of $5.0 million total equivalent (see Table 1) and would be carried out concurrently with the related studies described in paras 5.20-5.24 as well as with the Comprehensive Study (Voi. I, Chapter 8j). All of these studies would be guided by a Flood Consulting Group as described in the next section. Flood Consulting Group 5.30 The scope and cost of the various investigations described above, particularly for the flood models and the Brahmaputra-Ganges- Meghna Complex, are so vast that they would have to be planned with considerable care. For this reason, it would be desirable to set up a Flood Consulting Group that would direct and review the investigations of the various related components. The Government of Pakistan recently requested the Bank to send a team of experts ("Flood Commission") to assist in the study of flood problems. It was felt that since this problem exceeds in complexity any situation of like character anywhere, world-renowned experts of the highest calibre would be required in the various technical fields involved including hydrology, engineering, sedi- mentology, geomorphology, and geography. While the need for such a group is still felt, it is now believed that its scope should be broader and not limited to the flood problem alone. 5.31 The setting up of a Flood Consulting Group is therefore proposed. It would consider not only the overall flood problem but also the question of flood models and how best to proceed with study of the Brahmaputra- Ganges-Meghna Complex. It would probably also be desirable for the Group to give some consideration to the effects of upstream developments in India (see paras. 5.03 and 5.20). Such a Group might consist of 5 or 6 experts that would include the fields already mentioned but in addition would include a broad-gauged economist with experience in water resource development. Suggested terms of reference and costs for such a Consulting Group, which would be needed on a part-time (about 1/3) basis during an initial 4-year period, are discussed in Chapter 8 of Volume I. - 89 - Basic Data 5.32 Much basic data are already available in East Pakistan on hydrology, topography, soils, agriculture and economics. 1/ These data are generally adequate in the short run for the planning or water pro- jects, including those already underway which might start during the next few years (includes those for which capital investments are shown in Table 1). ltowever, for further planning, including the various spe- cial studies described above, additional data will be needed in the near future. Reviews of needs for additional data have been made and are being continued by the General Consultants to EPWAPDA. Harvard University is also working on basic data requirements and inputs and is exploring establishment of a basic data bank tor storage and retrieval of this information (see chapter on Comprehensive Study in Volume I). Need for additional basic data for long-range planning has long been recognized. A Bank mission of November 1967 observed that additional data are required particularly for study of flood control when double embankments are considered and that groundwater data are essential for study of an expanded water development program. 5.33 An expanded program of water resource development including agricultural implementation will also require an intensified program of aerial photography and mapping. Flood control considerations will be dependent upon additional photography and mapping also and will require basic data on sedimentology and morphology. Construction of river train- ing works and barrages involve problems of finding suitable construction material (rock and aggregate for concrete are extremely scarce in East Pakistan). There is a void of information, laboratory facilities, and knowledge on geotechnical aspects of soils and bed materials needed for design of major structures. East Pakistan is situated on an active tectonic zone and data are lacking on seismology. Large hydraulic structures should be designed to withstand earthquake forces by making use of appropriate local data. 5.34 Data needs in surface water hydrology, groundwater hydrology, geotechnical information, construction materials, seismology, geomorpholo- gy, and sedimentology are discussed in the following paragraphs. 5.35 Surface water hydrology: Much data have been gathered by var- ious groups and agencies and FAO has given valuable assistance with their program involving the training of Pakistani personnel to make gagings of streams. However much remains to be done in reviewing historical records to eliminate unreliable data, correct errors, establish procedures for recording records and retrieval of records when needed for use in hydro- logic studies. There also is a need for additional training of Pakistani 1/ The presently available data were obtained through programs of EPWAPDA, ADG, p,An and the Survey of Pakistan (witn UNDP support) and through feasibility studies of specific projects, described in Chapter 4. - 90 - personnel in gaging large rivers and more modern equipment will be needed for this work. Accurate hydrologic measurements are also dependent upon re-calibration of measuring instruments at regular intervals. There is at present no operational facility in East Pakistan for accomplishing this obJective. Funds must be made available to establish this facility and trainina nrovided for its use. The additional nrogram for surfare water hydrology must be undertaken now to supply data needed for long- range flood nrotertion plans and to nermit comorehens{ve planning as in the Southwest Region and for water-balance studies. The estimated cost over a 4-vpar nprind- .Q waq indirartpt in Tahlp 1 2 nf VJnl,ma T 4S $1.825 million total equivalent of which $1.5 million in foreign exchange. 5.36 Groundwater hydrology: Groundwater development in East Pakistan haa pr e ade ndi11 anon No intanclfi d (aAs rhaptair Li. Dataare adequate to proceed with the ADC tubewell programs (with dispersed well a,4 A.-A . A n-nt aF f nr fl raf- nh naee nf f-ha PPWATA e- ube-wePW projects. As more concentrated developments proceed, more comprehensive Aata will be neeAed both for project planning and for water-balance stuiles (see paras. 5.05 and 5.06). With progressive growth of hydrogeologic infnr-mat4inn msci. tuiihpwell dulnnmnts (lnrog canpa-it-y wells of over 4 cusecs and over 500 feet deep) will ultimately require consideration, possibly as an -alten-ative to o-a m,a4or bsrra8e (paras. 4-10 and 5.26). 5.37 HyoA--g1e-.o,g s 4t . -i11 4wil-l,,A nca the f-d-rminti4on of aquifer characteristics (such as area, depth, material, specific yield and rechnarge), -well spacin and nt-her fctorsva peavrtinent ti,- t 4r.s- i groundwater development. Such studies have been programmmed by U.S. Geological Survey (financed by USAT D) to start in mid-1970 and to be completed in five years. The USGS studies will provide data for spe- ciLLfLc proJects but, as he proJects proceed, the UTSre studles will also make use of data generated by the specific projects. 5.38 Aerial mapping: Work should begin as soon as possible on a quality aerila.L map-pipng sur-vey ofL Eolst P'-istan. TLILs survey will be ar essential source of basic data for flood protection planning and the more comprehensive regional and multiple purpose de-velopments now being proposed. Information from this survey will be especially vital to the proper exa- mination of double embankment flooa control projects, regional studies such as that proposed for the Southwest Region and comprehensive study programs such as the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex. intensified agriculture programs will also involve use of aerial photography. 5.39 Pakistani personnel should be trained and equipped to make necessary resurveys as needed in the future. As an essential tool in the study of embankments and river-training works, photographs of the main rivers both during the flood season and during the dry season will be needed so as to obtain information regarding the shifting of the riverbanks and streambeds. The survey will also provide basic data on topography, extent of flooding, location and width of waterways and land capability information. - 91 - 5.40 While most of East Pakistan is mapped with one-foot contours at a scale of 4 inches to the mile, and some to large scales, the maps vary greatly in quality. The nature of the proposed projects is such that accurate locations and cross-sections (including elevations) of drainageways, and land ownership are of great importance. Topographic details and property boundaries have to be determined exactly for these reasons. It has been found necessary to map, by ground methods, project areas at a scale of 16 inches to the mile. The aerial mapping program being proposed would facilitate this work. 5.41 It ts moreover desirable that the initial photography of the whole of East Pakistan be done in one season by a specialized aerial photography firm to establish a "bench-mark" year of quality mapping photo cover. Such a procedure would assure the availability of personnel and equipment adequate to meet the needs and the time schedule being projected for the East Pakistan development program. At the same time, the basis would be provided for future needs including sequential photo- graphy for continuing studies, prompt photographic reconnaissance and up-to-date photography for each year's mapping program. Besides providing a suitable aircraft. modern air cameras and other equipment, the program should also include training for Pakistani personnel as required to establish a Dermanent aerial photography and photographic unit based in East Pakistan and operated by Pakistanis. Such a unit could be located in a Government agency. 5.42 As such a proposal would involve serviceR of a foreign survey firm it is recognized that the work must be done compatibly with national security nolicy. Consideration might hp given to meet the needs of both security and development by adopting the following principles: a. The foreign air survey company be, by nationality and reputationn arreptable to trho Cnuornmonr Af Paleistan b. A security officer be stationed in Dacca to monitor the operation, with discretionary authority to deal with security nroblemn as they arise; r. As rniiirped in rontrnllinH nortsritvy an nfficpr or his deputy could travel in the aircraft at all times; d. Exposed film processed at Survey of Pakistan, Dacca, woiild remain utnder his conntrnl And he wunl d atuthnriz,e release of prints to EPWAPDA; e. He could interpret and administer security policy in respect to enumerated iteu- of basic envi:ronmenrtal data in East Pakistan. - 92 - 5.43 Some months ago, a UNDP proposal was drafted in East Pakistan thru joint efforts of UNDP, EPWAPDA and the Survey of Pakistan, and a PC-i form was prepared to support this program. However, aerial mapping experts from these agencies, and the General Consultants to EPWAPDA all agree that this program is inadequate to meet the needs for photography and mapping when consideration is given to the vastly expanded agriculture and water resources developments being proposed for East Pakistan. 5.44 As a result of conferences held in Dacca during April-May, it was agreed by representatives of UNDP, EPWAPDA, and The Survey of Pakistan that a new PC-1 form and application to UNDP should be drafted. 5.45 The aerial photograph and mapping program should proceed at the earliest possible date. This program will consist basically of the following: a. The rephotography of the entire Province of East Pakistan at medium scale, principally for air photo interpretation purposes; b. The photography at large scale of each area scheduled to be mapped at 16 inches to the mile for project purposes in conformity with the mapping schedule; c. The supply of modern equipment and training of East Pakistan personnel to form an aerial photographic unit capable of meeting future requirements. 5.46 The estimated cost of the aerial mapping program over a 4-year period, as was indicated in Table 3.2 of Volume I, is $3.0 million total equivalent of which $1.6 million is in foreign exchange. 5.47 Geotechnical explorations: Soils testing and analyses used in design of prolect works is carried out by the materials testing sec- tion of the hydraulic research laboratory. A considerable increase in capacity will be needed to meet anticipated requirements. Training of personnel in modern techniques is essential, and additional equipment will be needed in the laboratory and in the field. Training of person- nel should be accomplished in East Pakistan to a maximum extent. Hlowever, some engineers will require additional training in laboratories outside East Pakistan. Costs were indicated in Volume I, Table 3.2 ($800,000 total eauivalent of which $600,000 is in foreign exchange). 5.48 lnnstmrution materials: Lack of suitable construction ma- terials for river training works and control structures is one of the ma- 4-, probl,ma fai-in,, the wtejrpr developnnnr nrnogram PresntIun Iahbge information suggests that concrete aggregates are principally found in North Bengal and along the Sylhet-Assam border. Supplies of suitable - 93 - sand are also vailable at nmiber of locarntio%na throiugichouit tha Province. Apart from outcrops of near-surface bedrock in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the onLy known potent i a" sources of rock 4n Etas Pakistan are at a d e on the order of 600 feet in the Parbatipur-Rangpur area and even deeper itn tLLLhe coa'L and ±l.Lmestone depost regor.ion of J.raa.lga.j in thne uBogna District. 5.49 An organized exploration for construction materials and th-irough consideration of tihe processiLng, trantspor;, adiu costs ofl provU- ing materials at the job sites should be undertaken soon so that the knowledge gained can be made use of in thiie expanded development program being projected for East Pakistan. Information obtained should be of material value to the toLal construction industry in the Province. Studies would cost $600,000 total equivalent ($300,000 foreign exchange) as was indicated in Volume i, Table 3.2. 5.50 Seismology: East Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic zone. Limited data indicates that a large number of shallow and inter- mediate depth tremors have been felt within the Provinciai boundaries since seismic data were first collected in the Indian sub-continent around the turn of the century. Historical evidence attests to tne tremendous influence of the tectonic activity in the area with events like the avulsion of the Brahmaputra into the Jamuna some 200 years ago believed to have been triggered by an earthquake, and the tremendous landslide into the Brahmaputra Valley in Assam in 1950 which has caused considerable aggradation of the bed of the river and is probably still affecting the behavior of the Jamuna in East Pakistan. Large hydraulic structures must be designed to withstand earthquake forces, and without adequate pertinent information, overdesign for safety can result in increased costs. To pro- vide rational criteria for design, it is proposed to obtain expatriate advice on analyses of data and the procurement of seismographs for stra- tegic location in the Province. Presently, the only seismograph location is in Chittagong and it is understood that the data have not been fully analyzed. Study costs are estimated at $200,000 total equivalent ($100,000 foreign exchange) as was indicated in Volume I, Table 3.2. 5.51 Geomorphology and sedimentology: East Pakistan is traversed by large rivers carrying heavy loads of sediment. These rivers are constantly modifying their course and changing their cross section. Successful river training for flood control and construction of water regulating facilities is dependent upon properly identifying these con- ditions utilizing up-to-date techniques of analysis in the field of river morphology, sedimentology and fluvial hydraulics. While much information is already available from specific project studies (e.g. Dacca Southwest) and further data and advice will be available from the flood model studies (para. 5.23) and from the Flood Consulting Board (para. 5.30), basic research and long-term training of Pakistani person- nel should be started at an early date. - 94 - 5.52 Several universities have wide experience and staffing expertise to assist Pakistani staff in learning modern methods and techniques of analysis in sedimentology, geomorphology, and fluvial hydraulics. Their laboratories include facilities for testing and analyzing specific field conditions as necessary. These institutions are equipped also to provide educational training. A limited number of Pakistani engineers could receive fundamental training under this program. Costs are estimated at $100,000 total equivalent all of which is foreign exchange; see Volume I, Table 3.2. CALf PAKIS7117 -- X07T OFT7AI3 0' 1A(7T7'.1 Re-aining (;ot after lype of 1?70-71 197L-72 1972-73 - 19 72-73 Pro w, Total P R 0 J 1 7 T S Immestwsot i.-ak. St.rt complee -.IPr ~ ~ lca o~g Ttl t'a 3ori,g Ln TO=i ./TPr~g To/i-. tolPrM EIPWPODA PROJECTS 1. Gss.mge-tobadack, Kashtia Unit Part (a) Capital Inm. 1/7/70o 30/6,'72 7.5 2 .5 3.0 0. 7 2.-5 3.0 1.7) 5.0 6.0O Part (b) Capital Inm. 1/7/73 30/6/75 19.0 7.0 26.0 19.71 7.0 2605 Milt. A.et. 1/7/71 30/65/75 Q1. 0.1 0.6 0.11 0.1 !Q- 0.7 0.1 !)-4 0.6 0.2 17.8 j,'5 t, 2.0 .2.8R 2.6 3.7, 0.I9i 2.6 3.7, 0.3 0.1 0.L 19.6 7.2 26.8 21 .5' 12.5 A ,.o 2 . Coastal Ebsakat Ph,Ase I - 0oop A Capital In-. 1/7/70 1/65/72 2 9.0 1.0 30.0) 9.0 1.0 10. 0 38.2 2.0 40. 0 tar.p A (Water kt.) Proj. Prep. 1/1/11 30/5/774 0.2 0.l 0.13 0.3 0.1 0.74 0.3 0.1 0.74 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.74 1.74 Gmoap B Proj. Prep. 1/7/ 70 30/65/72 03.2 0.1 0.3 2.2 0.6 .3.0 2.1, 0.9 :1.3 Group B -Stage I Capital In-. 1/9/,72 33/16/75 3.13 1.2 5,.0 10.1o 3 .3 13. 3 13.81 74.5 113.3 Oroup B Stage 11 Capital Imm- 1/7/15 31/12/78 13.1 74.6 18.74 13.11 74.6 113.4 Phs.e II - Projeot Preparation Proj. Prep. 1/1/71 30/16/774 C.1I 0.1 0. 2 0. 3 0.2 0.5 0..)~ 0.2 77.5 0.13 0.1 02.3 0.-9 0.6 :1.5 Stage I Capital 1mm- 1/9/172 30/6/75 74.0o 74.0 13.0 16.70 6.0 223.0 20.7) 10.0 372.0 Stag U1 Capital In,. 1/9/75 30/65/78 20.1) 10.0 377.0 20.7) 10.0 372.0 Ph,aaee I & rl Overall Mlgt. Anot. - Pert I 1/7/71 30/65/774 0.1 0,1 72.2 1.0 0.5 :1.5 1.74, 0.7 3. 1 2.5; 1.3 3).8 Part II 117717h 31/1:3/77 -- - -2 .6 IIj J-9 2.6i L. .L2 39.5 1,3 30.73 11. 9 2.2 14. 1 9.1, 6.0 15.74 674.2 26.1 90.3 11,5.02 35.6 150.6 3. ChAodporz Capital Imm- IEA Credit 1/1/70 30/6/73 73.0 2.6 10.6i 7.5 2.0 9. 5 0.73 0.74 77207 .,1. . 1. 74. fleoa Sc.otweat Capital Cm-. 1/1/71 30/65/76 .3.0 1.0 74.o 8.-5 2.5 11.0 9.5 74.5 11s.0 274.0) 7.0 31. 0 745.72 15.0 60.0 Final Emg. )1, ,)A CrediLt 1/1/170 31/12/70 0.6 0.8 1.7, 0.6i 0.8 :1.74 Proj. Prep.) 3.6 1.8 5.7Is 8.5 2.5 11. 0 9.; 74.5 lTh.o 24.7) 31.0 31L. 7 45.6 15.8 6:.1, 5. arnafoli Capital In-. CIA Credit 111/72 1/l/75 0.7 0.3 :1. 0 7 .5 2.5 177.0 6.73 3.2 10.0 15.72 6.0 21. 0 Ploa l g. ) 1/12/70o 1/13/71 72.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1. 5 o.5 0.74 77.9 1.5 2.74 :3.9 Proj. Prep.v 1/7/70 1/5;/71 77.5 1.0 1.5, 1.2 1.3 2.5 8.0 2.9 177.9 6.33I 3.2 10.0 16.5 8.4, 24,.9 6. mubutri Capital CIm. Iwluded 1/1/?3 1/:1/76 0.7 0,3 1. 0 7.5 3.5 11.0 8.13 3.8 13.0 Ftaal &g. int 1/8/71 1/123/72 Proj. Prep. Karoafuali 1/2/71 1/74/72 - 0.7? 0.3 1. 0 7.5 3,.5 11.0 8.13 3.8 U1.0 7. Thbml7.e I Thakargamo ttenseion Capital lay. 1/7/71S 1/6/74 0.7 1,9 27.6 1.1 3,8 5,.0 1.3 3.8 5.0 3.11 P.S U1.6 Tsutulta Parnohagarh Capital Lam. 1/7/71 1/6/75 0.13 1,1 1..74 2.7) 6,0 33.0 3.7) 9.10 11.0 5.3 16.1 21. 4 tanIgeu C-apital Lwm. 1/7/171 1/6/774 0. 2 0.74 77.6 1.5 745 6.0O 1.5; 74.5 65.0 3.13 9.74 113.6 M.rt1s M3nessoiog 1/7/112 1/67/75 0.5' 1.5 17.0 2.77 6.0 33. 0 2.5 7.5 10.0 P'Loal E1g. & Al-l Tube- 1/7/10 30/6/72 . P7mj. Planmiog teells I7.74 0.6 1.77 0.3 0.7 1..0 -. -- - - - 1 11.1 13.0 Tot.el Toboumlla I 17.. 0 .6 1.17 1.5; 6.1 5. 6 5.17 15.5 21..3 7.7~ 23..3 311.0O oJ,.3 743.8 533.6 8. Pabma Phaise I Capita I.m. 1/9/7j2 1/7'/76 L5 15 603- L s03. 25 5. Final tng. 1/1/1-' 30/6/72 0).5 1.5 2.07 0.5 1.5 2. 0 1.7) 3.0 Is. 0 Proj. Prep. Completed iss .Ld-1970 -- -- ----- - (1.5 1.5 2.0C 0.5 1.5 2.0 L4.5 1.5 6.0 33.73 111.0 744.0 38.5 15.5 574.0 9 . Bm7lkuhi aepital too 7/7/72 37/6/75 3.77 1.0 74.0 15.17) 5.0 277.0 18.77 6.0 23,.0 R,L.al Erg. ) IncIuded L. P- J. PreT1) Puabn 3.77 1.0 ,.O 15.17 5.0 217.1 18.77 6.0 21,.0 I r, 14+rle W-i P-- T J.'~117/3 7,','7 i ). 5 r7.29 22.5; 7.5 317.0 22.5 7.5 3s .0 9>i al oEt. 1/7/172 31/11/73 7. 7 7 . 2/ .l~ 9 2/o,' 0.2,' 1. 1. P,~~~o1 Pr-r 1,1.77~~~~~~~ 3t,T'1,'7 7. 7 , .5 o. 4/ 1.7 .5 1. ?/ 7.77 1.0 1. 8 11. 7~'Per Ku~7-o, .',o71. J''? ." . 3.7 7 . 5.5; 7 5 5 17.77 3,5 S T '~~~1771 3-7 /,'72 .3 I71.' . O. 07 0.9 L-5 -. .. . . .... . . ~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2.7 '.5 10.17 74.4 115.0 Oaalo St After Type o f 1,72-71 i `7 I-'r'2) :2 -> 1772 - 1- PrE TaiaI IV. Koah..ao o. bob--t 1,1"72 1, 1, 75 2.? U. 3 It li.21 2.9 56. 2. 2 6.3 . 3.1 11.0 F-ca king- I :o, 077cr 1/7,71 30'l Proj. Prep.- ya,KIoblyara 117 1.3 10 1 .4. <. > : . . . 3.2 22.3 133. Dacca Narth Capital Ice. L/7/73 1/7/77 3.9 19.0 42.3 32.,) 1011. 13.11 Final Brg. 1! 7/72 31/12/73 0.1 2L.5 3.7 O. 1.1 1.7 3.p 1.7 2.5 Proj. Pc-p. 'L/1I31 I 43,16/7 2 D., 0.5 13.7 0.3 ' 0-5 0. 8 . . 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.7 .S 1.0 1.6 33.6i 11.1 Ui. ? 31.6 12 .6 46.30 13-. galiC ?ha.e I Project frn1p.rat.1an 2/1/71 30/6/73 0.3 o.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 9.5 1.0 1.51 1,3 2.2 4.0 Final Kagiarerling Far .11 stages [/1/71 30/6/73 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.2, 1.5 2.0' L . .5 1.5 2.0 1.3 3.7, 5.0 Staire (a) CapItal Ian- 0/1/71 33<,6/74 1.5; 0.5 2.0C 2.3 0.7 3.0 0.7 0). 3 1.0 L.5 1. 5 6.o Stlag. (b1 Capital In-. 1/1/73 )L3/6/76 0/ (.3 1,0 10.2 3.0 13.0 10.7 3.: IL 0 Stags". Capital Inn. L/1/74 37:/6,'773 12.92 4.0 16o 1-2. 40 16,0 0.6 i.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 5.5 4.0 j).5 73.5 22.7 7.3 32.0 29.5 15.-2 4550 16. aal-N&hl. Phase I Capital Ian- '1/12/73 30/6/77 i2/ 3 5 1. 00 3. 2!' 5. Final tog. 7/7/'72 431/3 . . 1.5 0.7 1.3 20 0.5 1. 15 1.7 3. 50 Proj . Prep. 1.'1/72 33/6/73 0.3 0).7 1.0) 0.3 0.7 1.0 04 0. 7 1.0 0.9 2.:. ~.O. o.6 1.7 2. 5 1.9 0.11 3.0~ 35 .3 14.2 52.6 Lo.v 17.5 58.0 Io. Sanog: Capital Inv. L/1/35 1/7/77 37 .5 12.5 5o.o 37.5 12.5 50.13 Pin-I fisg. ~)1/7/72 31/02/73 0.3 1.0 1. 3 0.3 9 .0 3.3 o4 1.0 1.4 1.0 3. 4.0 3.3' 1.0 1. 3 0.3) 1.0 1.3 37 .9 13.5 51.4 35.5 15 .5 54.0 17. Tube.l1o II Iafltal Inv. 1/1/74 1/1/78 1.0 2.o 3.13 9.1 29.5 39.0 10.5 32 -5 42.0 ftIn. 1a.6 1/1/72 33/6/73 0.1I 0).2 0. 3 0.2 13. 2 0.1 0.4 0.5 P'roj, PrM. 1/12/70 32)/6/72 0.2 0I. 3 0.5 .6 0.6 1.06 _0.91 L_ 0.2 0).3 0-5 0.5 3. 8 1.3 1.0 2.2 3.2 9.5 29.5 35.0 11.2 32.15 44.0 19i. fagei,-Jnb.dakc, Je...are Unit (.Phae 015) Proj. Prep. 1/6/73 32/6,74 __ 0.5 1,,,,j 2.0 0. I..' 2.0 Tot-el SPVAFDA Project, cj, 31 57.2 39.-1 25.3 64.6 53, 1' 5.4 99.3 351.7 175.7 528.4 490.0 259/.5 74p.5 flood onItrol inveatiationsJ 1. flnges, Barra.ge and Soathveet Regio, 1/ 1/72 11112/7, 5. 1.5 2.0 o.-5 1.5 2.0 9,5 1. 1 i .5 1.-5 4.1o 5.5 2. Mbodl of Sot-we-t Reag:o. 1/7/71 30/86/79 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.9) 0.6 1.4 2.0 3. Flaco K-ce11 1'7 r7 1 3V69/76 u.S l 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.7 1.9 0,9 1.7 2.5 a. Bralapetre - Oecges-Keghno C~pjev 1/1/7 33/6/71 0. 1.4 2.0 <1.6 i .4 2.3 c 1.3 A .7 1,0 1.5 3.5 5.0 Total FL-u Control ±noe-tjgatlr- 1.2: 3.6 5.0 0.9Y 4.6 6.5 2.1 2.1t 3.5 .4 10.15 15.0 A00 Parajlao 1.Lo.11/it hoops I 1/1/71 31,6/73 3.1 1 6. 7. 4.11 3.1 7. O 7.0 7.3 14.0 2. 1-l,Vr ?=o1 1/ 13/3 92,<6/75 6.0 2.o 5 .2, 16.0 3.0 137.0 20.0 5.2 3)5.0 3. TafreWalls I 1<12/73 31/12/73 3. $.6 .1. 6.5 8.9 15.i, 6.5 4.9 11.4 5.3 3.2 6L~ .7 29.9 22.9 64.6 L. Tubevelh 11 1,02/73 34131767 -. - - - 6 6.3 1. -.1' 35-1i 7t.4a 60.0 4!2.13 a4.0 Total A31C Prjojeto .6 .6 16.1. 13. 11.9 22.6, i9.5 13.0 32.0 953 42.1 117.1 90.9 76. 167.6 Orcad Total j%(6 7/? <3. 60. 405 .7-) 76 37 137. 1.13 2373. 623.13 586.2 346.9 2.~2-1 2: . 1 \ HanuL X s i /7 _I e ,,, ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~land -fea, fruits and forest | D.t Di S G ;)4 }nAX Cts1's.~N-> t,- v.ASSAM- 1'<-)~~~~~~ o c>- . 4, Ix -I.AhPf n _ / mA~~~~~~~~~~t; u Vl, - t f"za l~~~~~~k~ "I _ l _. l: 2 4 AITN _ < JUNE 1970 IBRD-3026~~b 1 MhAAP 2 a80~~~~~ U T A N 9 oo EAST PAKISTAN NPAL ' UTAN _ WATER PROJECTS i/ 1'' NXD t1 A '-AGRICULTURE & WATER DEV'ELOPMENT oj\ J / 9 \ 1 t > / ) ( > / t / ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~BrahmrGp,,t, right em,bonkm,-e,,l X & p N W ; < - - T:;OV ' bou~~~~~~~~~~~~----- ndor,e 6° \ w)1X > \\+ s / d}J roetrues h 0n 6i l t\ sh" n 1 eFn ) / l 1} (7' \ / 8 o2X1 /5 t. g 9. B~~IGanes-K ob.i da,Kstoui 18 Littles Fe,, o,Jesreui A /// 1; Jfi~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Casa emanmet 11X' Et- S Uppe,r Kusi - I MARyXf~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A 4Dcc Sot.s 13. Daccago NoMXes