World Bank Policy Research
March-April 1993           Volume 4, Number 2
Information technology's potential and performance
The amount of information        change in the way business is done.  telecommunications networks has
packed into economic activity      Information technology provides    also declined, although not as much
worldwide is rising, but the use of    a striking example of benefits that    as for computers.
information technology is not    developing countries can gain by   Despite these advantages, how-
catching on as fast in developing  tapping international sources of  ever, the aggregate impact of
countries as it has in industrial  knowledge. While industrial    information technology on produc-
countries. Nor is this technology a  economies have spent large sums  tivity in developing countries has
panacea-it is a tool for efficiency.    on the development of information    been disappointing. Studies of
And to make it work requires                                      industrial countries suggest that
planning, organizational capabili-                                 productivity gains from computer
ties, managerial skills, and entre-                                use have thus far been limited. And
preneurship.                       I ne aggrega                    Nobel Prize winner Robert Solow is
In a special issue of World Devel-  .                            reputed to have said that one sees
opment devoted to information    impact of                         computers everywhere except in
technology, World Bank policy                                      productivity statistics.
researchers Ashoka Mody and Carl   information
Dahlman examine the potential and                                  The information economy
the constraints of the information  technology has
revolution.                                                        To explore the link between infor-
As the unit costs of computers e    be. disappoint               mation technology use and per
and modern communications have      leng    capita income, it is necessary to
come down, their use has rapidly                                   assess the role of information in
grown, vastly improving the      technologies, many products and   modern economies. Why have
capability of users to store, process,   services are now available at prices   information services become a
and retrieve a variety of data,  that continue to decline in interna-    larger part of economic activity? Is
ranging from simple numbers to   tional markets. Information technol-  it because the value of these ser-
video images.                    ogy has additional relevance in   vices has increased relative to other
Information technology, which  developing countries because it is    economic activity? Or is greater
includes computers, communica-   applicable in small modules. The  information intensity merely a
tions technology, and the associated   personal computer and associated    reflection of lower unit costs of
software, is being applied to fields    storage technologies have brought    information technology services?
as diverse as science, manufactur-    the technology within the range of    The first influence can be thought of
ing, finance, and marketing. In each   small users, offering them an  as shifting the demand curve for
area, the technology creates the  opportunity to leapfrog over    information technology services
potential for greater operational  generations of equipment. The   outward. The second is a shift in the
efficiency and often leads to a  economically efficient size of    supply curve down the demand
,~                  ii~ |  .   ' ,,  (  Contents on page 2  U



Inomtoa value of; impt0000Ort         Global Economic Prospects and the
license autin:       : An empirical   Developing Countries 1993
and perfor   nc                                                                0
0 New                   esearchs                                                         Technical and Relatedii
Econometric analysis of pollution     m Poland, 1986-91
abatement costs                                                             Working Papers
Poverty in India, 1950-90             c       T   M        s
Issues of stabilization in tranitional
economies    ;alndar:
Understanding bilateral trade fo      Books
in East Asia
Spontaneous institutions and          L         for Balance betwee Con-
sustainable rural develomnseatoadDvlpet
in Africa
Survey of service firms                                     :
Petersburg                            Experience
The World BankPolicyReseac B       is p        i   a y   b t    s     vi    Saf SbriptionstotheBulletin
arecomplimentaryandBmayer eeby a              E en  rotm-27. The Bulletin 'spurpose
is to inform the development           Banks oicadrecotp tcs  de ns of Ba  publications,
research summaries, and updts fin anude te  an.hvew               dipons in art            hed are those of
the authors and do not necessa  eBa                                      its Executi     trs o the counrie
they represent. The Bulletin is nW,ot cpyrghed ad t  aybr  r           appropriates      attition. For more
information, contactEvelyn Aaro, the p c    m       Ao      nih t
2



Continued from page 1                    national and international economic   infrastructure. Economic coordina-
activity has increased steadily. The     tion-which includes certain
curve. This difference between           proportion of "information"               banking and financial services,
shifting the demand curve and            workers in the working population,    movements of goods and services,
shifting the supply curve highlights    even in the early 1980s, was as high       and legal services-has tradition-
the potential and the limits of          as 45 percent in the United States.       ally accounted for the bulk of
information technology diffusion in      Other industrial countries, while         information workers. But the
developing countries. Unless the         behind in this, were quickly catch-       number of workers who create and
demand curve begins to shift out-        ing up.                                   transfer knowledge is growing
ward or the demand for information         An information worker is one            much faster.
is highly price elastic, the technology  engaged in knowledge creation, in           According to another classifica-
will continue to play a limited role in  knowledge and information                 tion, growth has been especially
developing countries.                    transfer, and in economic coordina-    rapid in business services (advertis-
Over the past four decades, the        tion, including the operators of          ing, consulting, accounting, elec-
share of information services in         "low-end" information processing          tronic information services, credit
Box 1 Phones, televisions, and computers
A country's use of telephones, televi-   * Second, the United States has a much  applications.
sions, and computers is strongly      deeper and richer collection of computer     * Third, the United States benefits
correlated-the higher the number of   professionals than any other country. These    from agglomeration effects. Experienced
telephones, the greater the number of  professionals are not necessarily better  professionals are extremely mobile and
televisions and computers. And in     "educated" than in other countries, but they  carry with them embodied knowledge to
general, the relationship is close between    have much greater experience and hence  new and competing finns.
per capita income and information     have a greater capability in developing new
technology diffusion (see the figure). The
numbers of telephones and televisions in  GNP          Who uses infornation technolog
any country are generally close together,  per capita, 1989                                   gy
being about equal in the United States,  (US$)
Japan, and worldwide. In the East Asian                                                     1640
economies, however, telephone diffusion  22,816    Japan                                  600
has far exceeded the diffusion of                           83
televisions, indicating a strong govern-                                                                          960
ment priority in the development of    20,913   United                                                       900
telephone networks. In contrast, Brazil          States
and the new republics of the former
Soviet Union have much lower phone     17,834 Germnany                               42 19
density than television density, suggest-                    87
ing that telecommunications network
development has lagged behind.                                                       490
In the United States, there is about  9,259 Singapore                   310
one computer for every four phone
lines-a ratio much higher than in any        Common-
other country. The closest in this is   8,694 wealth of
Singapore, which has one computer for        dent States
every five phone lines. In Japan and                                            405
Germany, there are seven to eight phone  6,098   Taiwan                260
lines per computer. If the U.S. ratio of       (China)    56
computers to telephones is the normi, the
other countries can be expected, under  3,953   Rep.of                20
certain conditions, to experience rapid          Korea                                             TVs
growth of computer use to catch up to
that normn.                             246      Bai                                                optr
There are three possible reasons for  2,426   Brazil              210                           Computers
the United States to have a higher ratio of
computers to telephones than other                      9
countries.                               318    India  9
* First, the value of computers                      0.7
increases when they can be networked
through telephone lines, and the United                                    Number per 1,000 people
States has a higherdensity of telephones               Source: Egil Juliussen and Karen Juliussen, 'Phones vs TVs vs
and wider range of telecom services than               Computers," The 1992 Computer Industry Almanac, 5th Annual
other countries.                                       (Computer Industry Almanac, Inc., Incline Village, Nevada).
3



reporting, and airline computer          These national trends are re-        services relative to other activity. In
reservations). Some of these busi-     flected in international commerce.     apparel industries, it is now common
ness services were conceived and       Trade in services grew significantly    for international producers and
implemented wholly on the basis of    faster than merchandise trade           distributors to be connected through
a modern information technology        during the 1980s. Moreover, the        telecommunications links to shorten
infrastructure. Business services      growth in service trade has been       delivery time and reduce losses due
grew at almost 50 percent a year in    faster than trade in manufactured      to excess stocks or undersupply. The
the United States during 1975-87-                                             potential value of such losses (in
from about $3 billion to $130 billion.                                        relation to, say, costs of production)
Not surprisingly, developing and                                            has increased in recent years as
newly industrializing economies        ..,          ,            o            competition has focused on high-
have a smaller fraction of workers     iThe  difJusion  of                    quality fashion and time-sensitive
in the information industry than                                              products rather than products that
industrial countries do. Interest-     information                            have a long shelf life. Producers and
ingly, Hungary had more than 30                                               distributors in these businesses have
percent of its workers in the infor-   technology  will                       thus been active in adopting various
mation business in the early 1980s,                                           information technology-based
while the Republic of Korea had                            ,                  systems to lower their transaction
only about 15 percent. The Indian      be  slower In                          costs and inventories.
share of information workers was                                                Overall, developing economies
even lower, at less than 15 percent    developing                             have less need for such time-
in the late 1980s. Studies show,                                              sensitive information and hence are
however, that the trends are very      countries                              likely to place less value on infor-
similar to those in industrial                                                mation technology. But, since many
economies. Countries as varied as                                             developing countries have very
Hungary and Korea show a sharply    products, the most dynamic ele-           deficient information recording and
increasing share of information        ment of merchandise trade. And         dissemination systems, the mar-
workers over time. Moreover,           knowledge-intensive services seem      ginal returns from simple informa-
business services, though account-    to have been growing faster than        tion technology are likely to be
ing for a small proportion of          other services.                        higher in these countries than in
information services, are growing        Anecdotal evidence abounds on        industrial economies where infor-
very rapidly.                          the increasing value of information    mation systems are already quite
sophisticated. A further complicat-
ing factor is that even the use of
Box 2 Information technology in Africasimple information technology
requires certain organizational
lnfi mtio tehn ogyis sedin  wie    mte he mpotane o oraniatinalskills and incentives that may be
actix ities in Africa. And when used  skills Wequires training, preparing   absent in particular developing
effctiely suh tchnlog ha brugh  fasiiliy rpors, eveopig bsinsscountry contexts.
subs_antial _enefits mo African countries.~    plans. and procining hardware and  On the whole, therefore, the
Nigeria4is using computers to improve  Itis easy to read into this conclusion  diffusionnoffinformationntechnology
finacia conrol ofkey ranpor  tha wek mnageentskils i Aficacan be expected to proceed at a
parstaals Anthe inKena i usng  te o bame Foeig adises, oweer, slower rate in developing economies
proces an anayze ducaion nd  ofen aceptd inomplte tnderthan in industrial economies because
finacia daa ad t reormtheschlasic    ocuent tht hve ot etaledthethe value of information is lower and
tesingsysem.Othr eampes f  sateof orrwer' eistng nfomatonthe complementary skils to absorb
prodctivty-ehancng iformtioncapailites. rogrm deignsforinformation technology are lacking.
Ghaa t th ue o dekto pblihin  qickfixeffrt (sch s<te urcaseof In newly industrializing
In frca,aselewhre te mstcosidr apcit paning szig, utre economies
techr ology is the tndency to underesti-In Korea and Taiwan (China), the
_____________________________________________________     use of information technology by a
4



few large companies is extremely  standardization of business opera-    in vendors, and the lack of afford-
advanced. But both economies lag    tions. In contrast, functional or  able software.
behind Singapore in information  technical difficulties as well as   The newly industrializing econo-
technology diffusion. Use of the  limited capital are relatively   mies have been experimenting with
technology in corporate operations    subordinate constraints. Such  manufacturing automation in
is just beginning in Korea, and there   adaptation may also be constrained   several industries. For the most
is considerable variation by size of    by a corporation's entrenched  part, the experimentation has
firm. In 1990, all Korean firms with                               involved adapting available tech-
annual sales of more than $20                                      nologies to their specific needs. But
million had used computer sys-                                     the more advanced firms in these
tems; half of them had at least three                              economies are also researching
years of experience with such     Today, new                       ways of improving machinery and
technology, and nearly 23 percent                                  processing techniques.
had more than five years of experi-    microcomputers
ence. In contrast, about half of all                               In developing economies
small firms (with annual sales of  are diffused
less than $6.7 million) had no                                     Microcomputers have spread the
experience in computerized opera-                                  promise of information technology
tions and none of the firms had   worldwide in                     to the developing world. The gap
more than three years of experi-                                   between industrial and developing
ence.                             months                           countries has narrowed consider-
Overall, corporate commitment                                     ably: a decade ago, a typical devel-
to investment in information tech-                                  oping country would begin to use a
nology is low. Most Korean firms  information structure, which can be   generation of computers only many
invest less than 0.1 percent of their    very slow to change. Issues such as    years after its introduction. Now,
total sales in information tech-  these usually require a steady, long-   new microcomputers are diffused
nology. Only 14 percent of the firms   term effort before they can be  worldwide in months. But that
surveyed allocated more than 0.5  resolved.                        adoption is tentative, exploratory,
percent of total sales to developing  Operational productivity at the  and mostly confined to large firms.
information technology. In contrast,  Port of Singapore has increased  The use of information technol-
spending on research and develop-   significantly through the use of  ogy in developing countries is
ment in Korea's corporate sector  information technology. There, the    predominantly in service sectors.
runs at just over 2 percent of sales.    effective use of information tech-  Government use often accounts for
The immaturity of information   nology required substantial invest-   over half the application in the
technology applications by Korean    ments in equipment. The port had no   early phases of a country's comput-
firms can be further illustrated by  option but to steadily adopt such  erization, with the banking sector
software use. Less than half of a  technology since customers de-   following close behind.
sample of firms surveyed had used    manded quick turnaround of their  A report on Indonesian banks
software programs for corporate  vessels, which is not feasible without   concludes that automation has had
operations other than for such basic  it. Moreover, customers also demand    almost no impact on their financial
functions as personnel manage-   that the port be able to connect them  performance. In automating, banks
ment, wage calculation, and ac-  electronically to other links in the  have tended to underestimate the
counting. Only a quarter used    distribution chain. These imperatives   importance of changing process
software in production. Thus, while   aside, the adoption of information  routines. In the next several years,
management information system    technology must be slow, with each    however, the productivity gains
software has been widely adopted,    successive stage being mastered  from automation are bound to
material requirements planning and   before moving ahead.          increase, even in Indonesia, as the
material stock management soft-    Singapore's National Computer   current learning phase is com-
ware packages are rarely used.   Board has noted the problems faced   pleted. An international consulting
The most important constraint on   by the smaller companies in ex-  company advised a major Indone-
adapting information technology to   ploiting information technology.  sian bank on its information tech-
corporate operations in Korea is the   These include a lack of understand-   nology strategy-with very poor
lack of long-term planning and   ing of the technology, a lack of trust  results, due in part to inadequate
5



organizational skills. And the
spread of further banking automa-       Bo 3 Csi
tion in Indonesia and other devel-Bynesigsmlaeuyintecm                      istttnaifrtutr.
oping countries, such as automatic      mo transfer the
teller machines, is being held back          ta                                           e tssdeveloped
by unreliable telecommunications-       tehiusprcse,adsadrsecnms.TeNEdtriedht
one of the biggest impediments to         during        mo                               r e         a  m
the general use of information                                                               in such
technology in developing countries.     t pite infomatio technology         actvies, t of informaton
In Poland, where retail banking is        st                                                           the
also becoming computerized,                     ones     ed                                     ed countries.
telecommunications are a major                                                               involvement of
constraint to further automation.                                                            especiall in
And in China, despite poor tele-        cmae aoal  ihtebsi h                 eeomnctosdvlpet
communications, Barclays Bank has       g   hv occurred th      m                itiaevolon about a decade
obtained dedicated leased lines to        e
link some of its branches, allowing     SigprsTrdN,CiiSevceihrtaeonsiprhaysae
account verification at any one of      C     t i  a  Gamn  u               regulation.
the connected branches. Brazilian         n pgm  Tm          o      mTec                            hnology
banks, which have operated in an        prmae idfict t assess,              difuio  insunalo hav
inflationary environment and have                             t             c        since e success ofthese
traditionally had geographically        eo ese to mr  n                    isden   considerably on
dispersed branches, have benefited      pout a  s          i s     b
from the use of computer systems.
Distributed data processing was an
innovation tailor-made to their
needs. Even so, the productivity      support the adoption of those         effective use of information technol-
gains have not been uniform.          technologies must exist. And the      ogy, and large investments in tele-
To compete with newly industri-    organizations (such as a firm or a     communications have been integral
alizing economies in the manufac-     government entity) must have the      to the successful strategy of infor-
turing sector, low-wage economies     capacity and structure to absorb the    mation technology in East Asia (see
are being pushed into examining       technology.                           box 3).
the potential for automation. In        Although much of the underlying       Organizational innovation should
booming Southern China, comput-    knowledge is available "free," in        focus on the decentralization of
erized sewing machines for selec-     the sense that much of the cost to     decisionmaking, which in turn
tive operations are common;           develop technologies does not have    requires better trained and more
sophisticated surface-mount           to be paid for by developing          experienced decisionmakers.
machines for printed circuit board    countries, potential users must be    Information technology is used best
assembly are also used.               open to the technology flows. They    when small decisionmaking units
must also be open to the flows of     are part of a network that facilitates
In sum                                services and investment in which      the flow of new and complemen-
the technology is often embodied.     tary information, which can in turn
The effective use of information      This requires the full liberalization  be tailored to local needs.
technology has several require-       of international information flows.
ments. Knowledge must flow              In addition, complementary          Drawn from Ashoka Mody and Carl
worldwide with the greatest           investments to apply the informa-     Dahlman, "Performance and Potential
of Information Technology: An Interna-
possible freedom. The incentives to    tion technologies are typically      tional Perspective," World Development,
adopt new technologies must be in     needed. Telecommunications            Special Issue, vol. 20, no. 12 (December
place. The national infrastructure to   infrastructure is central to the    1992).
6



New  Research                         control policies for resource-           P
constrained economies requires          oMrtyin Ravallion
The research projects described here  knowing the sector of origin, the        Policy Research Department,
lhave been approved by the Research  type of pollutant, the risks associ-   ' Poverty and Human Resources
Committee and arefunded by the        ated with that pollutant, and the        Division
'~~~~~ Ref. no. 677r-82
Ban7k's Research Support Budget       costs of abatement.                                -82
(RSB). Bank units contribute their staff  The capability to project much of
time to these projects, and RSB funding   that information is now available,
complements this by providingfor such   through the Industrial Pollution    About 40 percent of those who
expenses as consultants, data collec-  Projection System. This system has   subsist on less than a dollar a day
tion, and travel. For information on  been developed by a World Bank        live in just one country-India.
funding to prepare research proposals    research team working in collabora-   Crisis and adjustment in that
approved, see page 11.                tion with the U.S. Environmental      country have made this a critical
For information about research      Protection Agency and the Center      time for its poor, and policy deci-
projects listed here, contact the re-  for Economic Studies of the U.S.     sions made in India over the next
searchers at the Bank's main address.  Census Bureau. The system is based    few years will have an important
on Census Bureau survey data from    bearing on their future welfare.
Research Starts                      tens of thousands of U.S. manufac-       Unlike many developing coun-
turing facilities, and EPA data on    tries, India has relatively good data
Econometric Analysis                plant emissions.                      for informing those decisions. The
Economwtric Analysis           0      The system can provide estimates    data on consumption collected
of Pollution Abatement Costs        of emissions intensity (pollutant per   through India's main survey
David Wheeler
Policy Research Department, '       unit of output) at a highly disaggre-   instrument, the National Sample
Poverty and Human Resources         gated sectoral level for hundreds of    Survey, will allow the compilation
Ref. no. 677-n 1                 pollutants. And it includes an EPA     of a time series of consumption
risk factors data base that enables   distribution and poverty measures
users to analyze the relative expo-   spanning four decades.
sure risk for these pollutants. By      Using data collected from 30
As developing countries establish    incorporating manufacturing            National Sample Surveys, this study
environmental protection agencies     survey data from a developing         will perform a descriptive analysis
and develop environmental regula-    country, the system can produce        of the changes in consumption
tions, a priority that often emerges  detailed sectoral and regional        distribution in India over the period
is to control emissions in large      estimates of pollution loads to help  1950-90. It will also perform basic
urban and industrial areas. Because   the country gauge its industrial      analysis of the observed changes in
the financial resources for such      pollution problems.                   poverty measures.
efforts are limnited, policymakers in   This research project will add to     The study will first estimate a
developing countries need a           the system information on abate-      model of consumer demand on the
method for weighing the costs and     ment costs based on U.S. plants'      time-series data and use it to
benefits of alternative strategies for    recurrent and capital expenditures  construct cost-of-living indices for
reducing pollution. This project is   for pollution abatement by medium     deflating nominal consumption
intended to fill that need.           of discharge. This information,       expenditures over the 40-year
In structuring a cost-benefit       combined with the data already in     period. It will construct different
analysis of strategies for controlling    the system, will make it possible to    indices for different groups and
industrial pollution, a sectoral focus   estimate pollution abatement cost  sectors (urban and rural). Thus,
makes sense. Different industrial     functions at a high level of sectoral  distributions of real consumption
activities emit different types and   disaggregation.                       will be constructed that reflect the
volumes of pollutants into different   RSB support: $39,900                 different effects of relative price
media (air, water, landfills). These  Staff weeks: 4                        shifts on the poor and the nonpoor.
pollutants pose different levels of                                         Poverty measures based on those
risk. And the cost of pollution                                             distributions will then be estimated
abatement may vary among sectors                                            over time and across sectors.
and pollutants. Thus, identifying                                             The study will then ask how
optimum industrial pollution                                                much of any observed change in
7



poverty can be attributed to        will examine two sets of issues that    of regional trade flows by looking at
changes in the distribution of living    this situation raises.         the determinants of bilateral trade
standards, as distinct from growth    The first set of issues, taking as a  relationships.
in average living standards. It will    given that Russia's government    For a country whose trade
test the hypothesis that distribu-  should finance income maintenance   liberalization is to take a preferen-
tional changes are of relatively    during the economy's transition,    tial course, it is necessary to identify
minor importance to the longer-     concerns how such a support          trading partners with which that
term evolution of the incidence of  system should be designed. There    country exhibits most complemen-
absolute poverty-that they are      are two main possibilities. Income  tarity. There are different hypoth-
instead swamped by the effects of   maintenance could be provided to    eses about what determines
growth in mean consumption.         workers through the enterprise that   complementarity in trade. Building
Finally, the study will examine   employs them. Support given to       on the work done with the gravity
the proximate causes of the changes   workers in place might help in the  model in analyzing trade flows, the
over time in the distribution of real   restructuring of enterprises and the    study will test empirically the
consumption in India. It will      reabsorption of workers if those     validity of these hypotheses and
distinguish the effects on the poor  enterprises have some future-that    systematically assess the relative
of macroeconomic fluctuations       is, the income transfers might act as   importance of the different determi-
from the effects of changes in the  a transfer of working capital. The  nants of complementarity.
sectoral composition of output      research will explore whether an      One hypothesis is that distance
(particularly agriculture versus    income maintenance program could   determines complementarity:
manufacturing), and the effects of  be designed so as to encourage       countries trade more intensively with
shifts in relative prices. And it will    restructuring and privatization.  their neighbors than with more
distinguish the effects on rural      An alternative system could give  distant economies. Another is that
poverty from those on urban         support to workers only after they  complementarity depends on relative
poverty, and look at the cross-     leave the enterprise-as an unem-    per capita GDP: the richer an
effects between sectors (such as the    ployment benefit. This could    economy, the more intensively
effect of agricultural output on    encourage labor mobility, and the   another country will trade with it.
urban poverty, and of manufactur-   income maintenance program could   For a pair of rich countries, the more
ing output on rural poverty),       be designed in conjunction with a    similar their per capita incomes, the
TIhe research will allow simula-  retraining program.                  more intensive the trade between
tions of the effects on India's       The second set of issues concerns    them; for poor countries, the opposite
poverty measures of projected       the macroeconomic tradeoffs that     could be true.
macroeconomic changes and shifts   income maintenance would entail.       A third hypothesis is that distance
in relative prices associated with  For example, what is the maximum     and per capita income together may
the current adjustment efforts.     amount of support that can be       matter: the effect of an increase in the
RSB support: $72,000                provided without putting at risk    per capita income of a partner
Staff weeks: 29                     efforts to reduce the inflation rate?  country may itself depend on
RSB suppott: $37,250                distance. The doser a pair of trading
Issuesof StabiLizationStaff weeks: 60                         partners, the greater the effect of an
in Transitional Economies                                              increase in the income of one on the
Marcelo Selowsky                                    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~other's exports.
Europe and Central AsiaRegional  ~   j East AsiaT'he research will also assess what
President         ArvidPanagarlya ir4Surnana Dhar    effects the economic slowdown in
Ref. no. 677-83                  Policy Research Department, Trade  North America and Europe will have
Policy Division   ~~      on East Asian exports, both within
and outside the region. Will East
As a result of the dramatic reduc-                                       Asia's intraregional trade intensify,
tion in Russia's short-term output,                                      and if so, how much? And would
government revenues have de-        With regional trade schemes appar-    increased intraregional trade be
clined sharply. Monetary expansion   ently here to stay, knowing what    sufficient to sustain the region's high
to finance money-losing enterprises   kinds of scheme are likely to expand    levels of growth?
and to maintain wages is resulting  trade has become important. This      In addressing these two sets of
in near-hyperinflation. This study  study will add to the understanding  questions, the study will assemble a
8



model and data set that can be used  in the full study to 40 institutions in   in transitional economies, or of how
to assess the effect of changes in  six countries). Each institution will    that growth is affected by the policy
incomes worldwide on the bilateral    be given a grant large enough to  environment.
trade flows of a country. The model    undertake a significant activity but  This project will survey 75 to 100
and data set will be constructed to  small enough not to dwarf its      privately owned service firms in St.
permit annual updating and to       current scale. The grants will be   Petersburg, Russia, to develop an
incorporate country-specific effects.    made under two conditions-that  understanding of their character-
RSB support: $30,000                they be used for a development      istics and performance, the policy
Staff weeks: 7                      purpose, and that researchers be    issues that affect them, and changes
allowed to interview the institu-   that could be made to improve their
Spontaneous InIstitions          tion's members to determine how      policy environment.
and Sustainable Rural            they made the decision on the use      The survey will collect informa-
Development in Afrca             of the funds.                        tion on each firm's previous owner-
Pierre Iandel-Mills and Robert     Researchers will rapidly docu-     ship and legal status, its initial
Klitgaard
Environmentally Sustainable      ment the setting of each participat-    financing, and the background of its
Development, Office of the Vice  ing institution, including the policy    owners and managers. It will obtain
President                        environment, using a set of socio-   information on the firm's general
Ref. no. 677-88                cultural variables developed for    characteristics, the services it
that purpose. The interviews on the    provides, its size, its technology,
decisionmaking process, and an      and its performance. The survey
Experience with rural development   assessment of the results of each   will look at each firm's market-the
efforts in Africa suggests that the  institution's undertaking, will be  clients for its services, its orienta-
most successful efforts center on   conducted about six months after    tion toward exports and toward
local organizations-and that the    the grants are made.                 services for foreign trade, its
most successful local organizations   The findings of these case studies    competitors, and its pricing policy.
are spontaneous institutions. These    and the findings on sociocultural  It will also look at the firm's inputs,
institutions are understood to be   settings will be used to analyze the    including financing sources and
voluntary, cooperative activities   relations among the policy and      labor.
aimed at development and initi-     sociocultural environments, the       Finally, the survey will obtain
ated by the participants without    behavior of spontaneous institu-    information on the environment in
outside intervention. Examples are    tions, the obstacles they encounter,    which service firms operate. It will
savings and credit groups and       and the outcomes they achieve.      look at what is helping and what is
producers' cooperatives.            RSB support: $20,000                hurting each firm in the general
This research is designed to shed    Staff weeks: 3                    environment-for example, infla-
light on how spontaneous institu-                                       tion, physical security risks, and
tions work. How do they make                                            informal transactions. And it will
decisions? What rural develop-        Survey of Service Finrns    -     look at the effects of policies
ment problems do they consider         in Ma Petersbur            -     introduced by different levels of
Martha de Melo and Gwr p          nrdue  y ifretlveso
most important, and what ob-           Policy Research Department,      government, such as tax and
stacles-including in the policy       Transition and Macro-Adjustment   pricing policies and regulations on
environment-do they face in            Rvision                           entry and exit.
addressing these problems? And                                            The results of the research are
how do the local sociocultural and                                      expected to show, among other
other conditions affect each of                                         things, how individual firms are
these variables? The answers to     The services sector is expected to be    contributing to the economy. These
these questions will help in under-    of central importance in transitional   findings will complement research
standing how to create an environ-    economies because of its role in  being conducted concurrently, at an
ment in which these institutions    generating employment, in promot-   aggregate level, on the potential
can flourish.                       ing private sector development, and    contribution of the sector as a
In this pilot phase of the project,    in improving the efficiency of  whole to economic growth in the
researchers will identify three     distribution and production. Yet    former Soviet states.
spontaneous institutions in         there has been little empirical     RSB support: $15,000
Lesotho (a sample to be expanded    analysis of the growth of this sector    Staff weeks: 22
9



work that emerges, the study will      This study will examine what
Informatonal Val&ofTho~t  then examine data on bids in the      motivates public doctors' perfor-
License Auct~ons~                  Australian and New Zealand            mance in order to identify incen-
An Empirical Study       ~auctions to address the second        tives that would induce optimal
Polcy Research Department,        question. This exercise will identify  effort and could be incorporated
the conditions under which bids      into their employment contracts.
Ref.g;; 0 fngfo.E 677-91         S,Xclosely parallel tariff equivalents and  For example, it will look at how an
produce techniques for making        increase in salary or in hours worked
inferences about the restrictiveness of   in the primary job affect a physician's
Import license auctions are poten-   a trade regime in which they do not.    reservation wage for secondary
tially useful devices. They offer a  RSB support: $99,565                 employment. And it will look at how
market-oriented way of allocating    Staff weeks: 5                       the reputation doctors enjoy because
licenses. They can provide revenue                                        of their public employment affects
for governments. And-most              Puii-rvt  neatostheir secondary employment, and
important for this study-bids in                                          how that link can be used to motivate
license auctions can provide useful                ,                      greater effort by doctors in their
information on import demand and         d                                primary employment. Public facili-
the degree of restrictiveness (tariff                                     ties could recognize superior perfor-
equivalent) of import regimes.         a                                  mance through awards or announce-
During the past decade, Austra-                                         ments, for example.
lia, Colombia, and New Zealand all                                          Data for the study will be col-
used such auctions as an intermedi-                                       lected through questionnaires
ate step in their trade liberalization                                    administered to public and private
programs. Policymakers used the      In most developing countries the     physicians, public and private
auction bids as a measure of the     government is the main provider of   health care facilities, and patients.
protection of the relevant industry,    health services. Rising incomes, aging    The survey will be carried out in
and as a guide for timing the        populations, and urbanization are    Egypt, where private practice by
removal of licensing requirements    leading to increased demand for      public physicians is widespread.
and for adjusting tariffs. And       curative health services even as these    RSB support: $30,000
economists have suggested using      governments continue striving to     Staff weeks: 28
license auctions to measure the      improve primary health care. These
tariff equivalent of quota restric-  competing needs put tremendous          Th
tions and as an interim step in      pressure on public health systems at    Privte:afey Nt drin
converting quantitative restrictions    a time when public spending levels    rnio  Private
(such as the Multifibre Arrange-     cannot be increased-perhaps not           t u       l T anfer
ment) to tariff systems.             even maintained.                        nPlnd  969
This study will address two          Because of the special characteris-       ae Jimn
questions raised by license auctions:    tics of the health sector, the privat-  P    d  uaR       rc
What auction design is best, given   ization of all health services is not   Dvso
the objectives of transferring rents to    seen as the solution, although      R  no    a 677-96
the government and measuring         private delivery of many services is
import or export demand, tariff      certainly considered appropriate.
equivalents, or the restrictiveness of  There is evidence of ample scope for    In formerly socialist countries
trade controls? And is there evidence   improvement in the efficiency of  moving toward market-oriented
from countries that have used license   public health care systems, however.    systems, the closing of unprofitable
auctions that the bids reliably        One cause of inefficiency in many    firms and the development of new
measured the tariff equivalents of   developing countries is the practice    businesses are leading to rising
their quantitative restrictions?     of permitting publicly employed      unemployment and a widening
To address the first question, the  doctors to maintain a private       distribution of income. These effects
study will apply auction theory to   practice. This has often been        threaten to derail popular support
analyze the license auctions used in   associated with low levels of effort    for the transition to capitalism.
Australia, Colombia, and New         by doctors in their primary employ-   Because of this, some have advo-
Zealand. Drawing on the frame-       ment in public facilities.           cated continuing public transfers to
10



alleviate both temporary and        transfers will evolve toward        for whom such mature markets as
permanent poverty caused by the     exchange-type behavior as more      the London, New York, and Tokyo
transition. But the hard-pressed    market-oriented attitudes emerge.   exchanges are not necessarily
governments of these countries are    This would be reflected by an     appropriate models.
unlikely to be able to do so without   increase in the volume of transfers  This study will examine trading
substantial aid.                    between households, rather than in    activity on Mexico's stock exchange
This study will look at the results   their size or redistributive effects,  to shed light on whether the design
of Poland's Household Budget        indicating a tendency toward         of a trading system has important
Survey to assess whether the        symmetry in those relations-that    implications for trading and price
families most severely impover-     is, toward barter exchange.         behavior. It will also look at
ished during the transition can rely    RSB support: $40,000            whether institutional features
on private family safety nets for   Staff weeks: 5                      contribute to market volatility and
support. This survey, conducted                                         liquidity, and thus inhibit investors'
every year since 1957, covers 25,000  Market Structure and Market       participation and limit the ease with
or more households each year.         Outcomes: The Mexican Stock       which corporations can raise capital.
Two-thirds of those surveyed in       Exchange                            In addition, the study will
any year are resurveyed in each of   cInterational Finance Corporation,  provide policymakers with evi-
the next four years.                  Finance Department                dence on how particular features
The study will first measure the      Ref. no. 677-97                  and policy changes have influenced
size and prevalence of household    -                                   trading behavior and price forma-
transfers during a year that pre-                                       tion. For example, it will see
ceded Poland's economic transition.   The important role of markets in  whether the changes in Mexico's
It will also examine patterns in the  economic development has become    policy to allow more foreign
flow of private transfers. For      increasingly recognized. Among      investment and increase the access
example, do transfers flow prima-   them is the stock market, whose      of Mexican corporations to interna-
rily from the young to the old, or  function is to allocate capital     tional capital markets have had
vice versa? Do they occur primarily    efficiently in the private sector. In  noticeable effects on trading
within or between groups of house-   theory, this allocation of capital is  behavior and price formation in
holds classed by their urban or     based on the risk each company      Mexico's stock market. The results
rural location? Are female-headed   represents and the reward to inves-  of this inquiry will be helpful to
households or those with children   tors for bearing that risk-as re-    regulators and policymakers in
under 18 overrepresented in the     flected in stock prices. Most theories  other emerging stock markets who
sample of recipients? And what      of stock price determrination take the    face decisions relating to the intema-
proportion of household income do    market as a black box that informa-  tionalization of their markets.
transfer receipts comprise?         tion enters and that then gives out an    RSB support: $34,100
As a first step toward simulating  efficiently determined price.       Staff weeks: 6
the effects of economic transition on  Market microstructure theory
transfer behavior, the study will   suggests that the institutional      Research Proposals
then estimate private transfers as a  features of stock markets are      under Preparation
function of pre-private-transfer    important determinants of price      Good Policy, Good Luck, or Good
income, controlling for other       behavior-that policymakers,          Location?
important determinants of private    through their choice of trading    Ajay Chhibber and Chad Leechor
transfers. Next, it will attempt to  system and other features, can     Western Africa Department, Office of
use additional data to see how      influence trading and price behav-    the Director and Country Operations
Division
transfers have changed over time,   ior, and thus the efficiency with      Ref. no. 677-92
paying special attention to the     which prices are determined.           RSB support: $15,000
transition period between 1989 and    Policymnakers face a wide range of  Construction of an Integrated Data
1991. Will a more market-oriented   decisions on the institutional      Base Software for Former Soviet
economy bring with it changes in    structure of a stock exchange, yet   Union Economic Accounts
attitude and economic behavior      little information is available on the    David Tarr
reflecting lower priority for support   implications of those decisions. This   Policy Research Department, Trade
networks among households?          is a particular problem for policy-  Policy Division
Ref. no. 677-99
Another issue is whether private  makers for smaller stock markets,      RSB support: $13,345
11



*_ *can help protect natural forests.                            agriculture, energy, and labor. And
It examines policy and institu-    it shows how Korea actually
To order World Bank publications i .n  tional issues, such as fuelwood    improved its social welfare pro-
the United States, send prepaid orders,    problems and government forestry  grams during the economic adjust-
plus $3.50for shipping and handling,    policies. And it examines several  ment.
to World Bank Publications, P.O. Box    critical areas of forest management:
7247-8619, Philadelphia, PA 19170-   plantations, agroforestry, water-    Global Economic Prospects and the
8619, USA.                           sheds, and natural tropical forests.  Developing Countries 1993
World Bank publications are
avaiabl thrug a new rk of7is       It outlines the important conditions    93 pages/Order Stock #12415/$10.95
avalable through a nletworkc of dis- 
tributors outside the United States. For   for sustainable management, makes    Despite an uncertain start to the
the name and address of the distributor   recommendations for donors, and  1990s, developing countries face
in your country, write to the World  develops a matrix for designing      brighter prospects for growth than
Bank Publications Sales Unit, Depart-    agroforestry systems to suit varying    in the 1980s. The improved pros-
ment PR, 1818 H Street, NW, Wash-    agroecological conditions.           pects can be attributed mainly to
ington, DC 20433.                      Finally, the volume uses the       the widespread economic reforms
Books                                critical concerns that it raises to  these countries have adopted-
develop a detailed policy for        notably, privatization, greater
Managing the World's Forests:        sustainable forestry that integrates  openness to trade, reduction of
Lookingfor Balance between           conservation needs and develop-      fiscal deficits, and elimination of
Conservation and Development         ment goals.                          commercial bank debt overhangs.
Narendra P. Sharma, ed.                The volume contains a statistical  These beneficial effects will be
Published by Kendhall/Hunt Publish-
ing Company                          appendix of hard-to-find data,       enhanced by a growing supply of
605 pages/$34.95                     compiled by region and country, on    external finance from private
(Available only at the World Bank    forestry and forest resources.       sources.
bookstore or from Kendhall/Hunt                                             This third annual edition of Global
Publishing Company, 2460 Kerper
Boulevard, P.O. Box 539, Dubuque, IA  Structural Adjustment in a Newly    Economic Prospects examines the
52004-0539, USA)                     Industrialized Country:              long-term prospects for the global
This collection of essays-based on    The Korean Experience               economy in the 1990s and their
a World Bank study of forest use     Vittorio Corbo and Sang-Mok Suh      implications for developing coun-
across the globe-examines world      Published for the World Bank by Johns    tries. As in earlier ed*ions, the
across                     ~~~~~~~Hopkins University Press       tis  si  ale  dtos h
forestry from many perspectives.     376 pages/Order Stock #44328/$39.95  report considers the economic links
Leading ecologists, economists, and    After a serious economic downturn    between industrial and developing
scientific researchers review        in 1980, the Republic of Korea       countries. This year it emphasizes
destructive exploitation of forests  began an adjustment program that    links through external finance-
and the political economy of forest    produced high growth with mini-    that is, the flow of funds into
management. They offer manage-       mum inflation and little recession.  developing countries from abroad.
ment strategies to help speed the    Many countries struggling with         The report focuses on three key
transition to sustainable use of     economic reforms of their own        issues in external finance:
forest resources.                    could benefit from Korea's experi-     . Foreign direct investment-
Decisionmakers will get practical    ence.                              what benefits does it offer?
policy options for development that    This study examines the eco-         . Portfolio flows-what are the
reflect local, national, and global  nomic program Korea used to cope    ways to sustain them and manage
needs. Lay readers will get a clear  successfully with low growth, high   their volatility?
understanding of forestry issues.   inflation, and unsustainable defi-      * Aid-is there enough and is
The volume first analyzes the      cits. The adjustment program         the quality adequate in a post-cold
current world forest situation and   allowed Korea to control inflation,  war world?
describes global forest resources. It    wages, and interest and exchange   Developing countries have now
then addresses environmental         rates while avoiding import con-     become more integrated with
concerns, including potential       trols and developing new markets      financial markets. The report ana-
climate changes and diminished       for exports.                         lyzes both the degree of this financial
biodiversity associated with           The study looks at key economic    integration and the implications for
deforestation, and suggests ways in   sectors that affect long-term adjust-    policymakers in developing and
which the international community    ment: finance, trade, industry,      industrial countries alike.
12



Discussion, Technical,             Caribbean countries. It reviews the    abatement. Their results challenge
and Related Papers                 ways in which women behave in      what have been seen as inevitable
the work force and the treatment  links between growth and pollution
Financial Sector Refor-m in       they receive.                       and between pollution abatement
Transitional Socialist Economies    The study analyzes the work       and cost.
EDI Seminar Report 29              women do by their age, body size,    The authors studied three sec-
56 pages/Order Stock #12145/$6.95  and employment status and by the    tors-electric power generation,
This report examines the financial    industrial and occupational compo-   energy and urban transport, and
sector reforms that confront transi-   sition of their jobs. Women's  water supply and sanitation-and
tional economies, especially those  characteristics are compared with  discuss the possibilities of similar
in Central and Eastern Europe. It  men's to take account of possible  results for agriculture, industry,
analyzes how withdrawal of state   cross-country differences.         and indoor air pollution.
control will transform the role of  The authors investigate the        The authors demonstrate how
new and existing financial institu-  conditions that determine women's   good economic policies are often
tions in these countries.          participation in the work force and    beneficial for the environment and,
The paper describes the financial   the disparate earning power of  conversely, why good environmen-
structure needed to design effective   women and men. They evaluate the   tal policies are good for economic
reform programs. It explains how   income gap between the sexes       growth and development.
monetary policy can affect financial   caused by discrimination. And they
reform and what institutional      suggest policy options that can
preconditions encourage a healthy  make the labor force more equitable   The State Holding Company:
and efficient.                    Issues and Options
financial system. And it discusses  ana erIlClenta                    Anjali Kumar
the main issues involved in restruc-  The study draws together much   World Bank Discussion Paper 187
turing banks, financial institutions,    of the research done on women and    66 pages/Order Stock #12319/$6.95
and productive private enterprises,    work in developing countries over    Countries moving from a centrally
as well as longer-term issues in  the past several years and includes    planned to a market-based
financial reform, including the    a substantial bibliography.        economy often have difficulty
possible role played by money,      The authors have also written a   reforming large, state-owned
capital markets, and nonbank       companion volume: Case Studies on    enterprises. A common interim
intermediaries.                    Women's Employment and Pay in      solution is the state holding com-
A concluding chapter discusses   Latin America (488 pages/Order     pany-which can help govern-
the three areas of financial reform  Stock #12308/$29.95).            ments separate their ownership
in transitional countries that shape                                 responsibilities from their manage-
any framework for national reform:                                    ment functions and give enterprises
national economic stabilization;   Efficiency and Substitution        more operational freedom.
politically motivated structural   in Pollution Abatements:             This paper discusses the state
reforms, such as increased private  Three Case Studies   C            holding company from a manage-
ownership and more realistic price    World Bank Discussion Paper 186  rial perspective. It provides an
structures; and other structural   135 pages/Order Stock #12309/$9.95  analytical framework for measuring
changes that ensure the implemen-    The studies presented in this paper   the effectiveness of such companies
tation of politically mandated     assess how policies favoring low-  as interim organizations. It also
reforms.                           polluting technologies and changes    explains why the transition process
in pricing practices can reduce    for state-owned enterprises can be
Women's Employment and Pay         environmental pollution even in the   lengthy and involve many stages.
in Latin America: Overviezv        face of expected growth.            The paper examines the organiza-
and Methodology                     Based on current projections of  tion and performance of holding
A World Bank Regional and Sectoral  population growth and economic    companies in Algeria, Egypt, and
Study                              expansion and their relationships to   Italy, and the similarities between
Tzannatos                          environmental pollution, the      these companies and new institu-
272 pages/Order Stock #12270/$15.95    authors projected what could be  tions emerging in Eastern Europe.
This study examines the economic    done over the next few decades to  And it points out lessons that the
role women play in the develop-    reduce pollution. They also looked    new institutions can learn from the
ment of Latin American and         at the economic effects of pollution    more established ones.
1 3



Policy Research Working Papers         How Useful Are Integrated              Teachers' Salaries in Latin
Household Survey Data                  America: A Comparative Analysis
Working Papers disseminate the         for Policy-Oriented Analyses              George Psacharopoulos,
findings of work in progress and       of Poverty? Lessons from the C6te      Jorge Valenzuela, and Mary Arends
findins of wrk inprogres andd'Ivoire Living Standards Survey         WPS1086 a Contact George
encourage the exchange of ideas among     Christiaan Grootaert                Psacharopoulos, room 14-187, tel.
Bank staff and all others interested in  WPS1079 * Contact Elena Vitanov,     202-473-9243.
development issues.                    room J2-241, tel. 202-473-8400.        Exchange-Rate-Based
Costs of Alternative Treatments        A New Regional Price Index             Stabilization: Tales from Europe
for Incomplete Abortion                for Cote d'Ivoire Using Data            and Latin America
Brooke R. Johnson, Janie Benson,    from the International                    Alberto F. Ades, Miguel A. Kiguel,
Janet Bradley, Aurora Rebago Ordoniez,  Comparisons Project                   and Nissan Liviatan
Catia Zambrano, Leonard Okoko,            Christiaan Grootaert and Ravi Kanbur  WPS1O87 * Contact Raquel Luz, room
Leticia Vesquez Chevez, Paulina Quiroz,  WPS1080 * Contact Elena Vitanov,         -0, te .
and Khama Rogo                         room J2-241, tel. 202-473-8400.        A Primer on the MFA Maze
WPS1072 * Contact Otilia Nadora,                               B                 Rnccr Fn   ae  de Me
room 56-065, tel. 202-473-1091.        Correctingfor Sampling Bias              Riccardo Faini, Jaime de Melo,
in the Measurement of Welfare          and Wendy Takacs
ofWlfr       WPS1O088 * Contact Dawn Ballantyne,
Fiscal Aspects of Developing           and Poverty: The Case of the Cote      room NI0-029, tel. 202-473-7947.
Country Debt Problems and Debt         d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey
and Debt-Service Reduction               Lionel Demery and Christiaan Grootaert   Equity Portfolio Investment
Operations: A Conceptual               WPS1o81  , Contact Elena Vitanov,      in Developing Countries:
Framework                              room J2-241, tel. 202-473-8400.        A Literature Survey
Peter J. Montiel                                                              Stijn Claessens
WPS1073 * Contact Rose Vo, room                                               WPS1089 * Contact Rose Vo, room
S8-042, tel. 202-473-1047.                 oi                                 S8-043, tel. 202-473-1047.
How Moving to World Prices               Deatet Plas                          Government Expenditures
Affects the Terms of Trade               r e  f            s t the            as a Citizens' Evaluation of Public
in 15 Countries of the Former            c                                    Output: Public Choice and the
Soviet Union                                                                  Benefit Principle of Taxation
David G. Tayr,'a                                n    anaes                    Thanos Catsambas
WPSI1074 * Contact Nellie Artis, room                                         WPS1090 * Contact A-nita Correa, room
N1O-013, tel. 202-473-8010.                                                   H11-107, tel. 202-473-8549.
Many Paths to Skilled                  What Do Governments Buy? The           Capital Market Imperfections
Employment: A Reverse Tracer           Composition of Public Spending         Before and After Financial
Study of Eight Occupations             and Economic Performance               Liberalization: A Euler-Equation
in Colombia                               Shantayanan Devarajan,              Approach to Panel Data
Adrian Ziderman and Robin Horn      Vinaya Swaroop, and Heng-fu Zou        for Ecuadorian Firms
WPS1075 * Contact PHREE, room          WPS1082 * Contact Carlina Jones, room     Fidel Jaramillo, Fabio Schiantarelli,
S6-214, tel. 202-473-3680.             N10-063, tel. 202-473-7699.            and Andrew Weiss
WPS1091 * Contact Wilai
A Presumptive Pigouvian Tax            Finance and Growth: Schumpeter         Pitayatonakarn, room N9-003, tel.
on Gasoline: Analysis of An Air        Might Be Right                         202-473-7658.
Pollution Control Program                Robert G. King and Ross Levine
for Mexico City                        WPS1083 * Contact Daniele Evans,        The Effect of Financial
Gunnar Eskeland                     room N9-057, tel. 202-473-8526.        Liberalization on the Allocation
WPS1076 * Contact Carlina Jones, room                                         of Credit: Panel Data Evidence
N1O-063, tel. 202-473-7699.            Stock Market Development               for Ecuador
and Financial Deepening                  Fidel Jaramillo, Fabio Schiantarelli,
Risk Management Prospects              in Developing Countries:               and Andrew Weiss
for Egyptian Cotton                    Some Correlation Patterns              WPS1092 * Contact Wilai
Panos Varangis, Elton Thigpen,         Dong He and Robert Pardy            Pitayatonakam, room N9-003, tel.
and Takamasa Akiyama                   WPS1084 * Contact Priscilla Infante,   202-473-7664.
WPS1077 * Contact Dawn Gustafson,      room N9-005, tel. 202-473-7665.
room S7-047, tel. 202473-3714.                                                Swiss Chilanpore: The Way
Economic Approaches to Modeling        Forwardfor Pension Reform?
The Evolution of Welfare               Fertility Determinants:                   Dimitri Vittas
and Poverty Under Structural          A Selective Review                      WPS1093 - Contact Wilai
Change and Economic Recession            Cristino R. Arroyo III               Pitayatonakarn, room N9-003, tel.
in C6te d'Ivoire, 1985-88             WPS1085 * Contact Otilia Nadora,        202-473-7664.
Christiaan Grootaert                room S6-065, tel. 202-473-1091.
WPS1078 * Contact Elena Vitanov,
room J2-241, tel. 202-473-8400.
14



The New Regionalism:                   Capital Mobility in Developing         Privatization, Concentration,
A Country Perspective                  Countries: Some Measurement            and Pressurefor Protection:
Jaime de Melo, Arvind Panagariya,   Issues and Empirical Estimates          A Steel Sector Study
and Dani Rodrik                           Peter J. Montiel                       Ying Qian and Ronald C. Duncan
WPS1094 * Contact Dawn Ballantyne,     WPS1 103 * Contact Rose Vo, room       WPS1112 * Contact Sarah Lipscomb,
room N1O-029, tel. 202-473-7947.       S8-042, tel. 202-473-1047.             room S7-062, tel. 202-473-3718.
Are Failproof Banking Systems          Trade Policy Reform in Latin            The Lucky Few Amidst Economic
Feasible? Desirable?                   America and the Caribbean              Decline: Distributional Change
Samuel H. Talley                    in the 1980s                            in C6te d'Ivoire As Seen Through
WPS1095 * Contact Bobo Lu, room           Asad Alam and Sarath Rajapatirana   Panel Data Sets, 1985-88
N9-005, tel. 202-473-7664.             WPS1104 * Contact Joy Troncoso, room      Christiaan Grootaert and Ravi Kanbur
14-059, tel. 202-473-7826.             WPS1113 * Contact Elena Vitanov,
How Trade Liberalization Affected                                             room J2-241, tel. 202-473-8400.
Productivity in Morocco                Estimating Quasi-Fiscal Deficits
Mona Haddad                         in a Consistency Framework:             Does Price Uncertainty Really
WPS1096 * Contact Dawn Ballantyne,     The Case of Madagascar                 Reduce Private Investment?
room N10-023, tel. 202-473-7947.          Philippe Le Houerou                 A Small Model Applied to Chile
and Hector Sierra                        Anita George and Jacques Morisset
A Production Function-Based            WPS1105 * Contact Nydia Velasco,       WPS1114 * Contact Diane Bievenour,
Policy Simulation Model                room J3-283, tel. 202-473-4346.        room 16-011, tel. 202-473-7899.
of Perennial Commodity Markets
Takamasa Akiyama                    Improving Women's Access                Looking at the Facts: What We
and Jonathan R. Coleman                to Higher Education: A Review          Know About Policy and Growth
WPS1097 * Contact Grace Ilogon, room   of World Bank Project Experience       from Cross-Country Analysis
S7-033, tel. 202-473-3732.               Halil Dundar and Jennifer Haworth       Ross Levine and Sara Zervos
WPS1106 * Contact Stella David, room   WPS1115 * Contact Daniele Evans,
Fortress Europe and Other Myths        S2-270, tel. 202-473-3752.             room N9-089, tel. 202-473-8526.
Concerning Trade
Jean Baneth                         Financial Reform Lessons                Implications of Agricultural Trade
WPS1098 * Contact Mona St. Leger,      and Strategies                         Liberalization for the Developing
room R8-063, tel. 202-473-7148.           Gerard Caprio, Jr., Izak Atiyas,    Countries
and James Hanson                          Antonio Salazar P. Brandao
Trade Unions and Collective            WPS1107 * Contact Wilai                and Will Martin
Bargaining                             Pitayatonakam, room N9-003, tel.       WPS1116 * Contact Dawn Gustafson,
Harry C. Katz, Sarosh Kuruvilla,    202-473-7664.                           room S7-044, tel. 202-473-3714.
and Lowell Turner
WPS1099 * Contact ESP, room S6-035,    Public Output and Private              Portfolio Investment Flows
tel. 202-473-3680.                     Decisions: Conceptual Issues           to Emerging Markets
ain the Evaluation of Government          Sudarshan Gooptu
Indigenous Teritoes and Tropical    Activities and Their Implications         WPS1117 * Contact Rose Vo, room
Forest Management in Latin             for Fiscal Policy                      S8-042, tel. 202-473-1047.
America                                   Thanos Catsambas
Shelton H. Davis and Alaka Wali     WPS1108 * Contact Anita Correa, room    Trends in Retirement Systems
WPS1100 * Contact Shelton Davis,       Hl1-107, tel. 202-473-8549.            and Lessons for Reforn
room S5-109, tel. 202-473-3413.                                                  Olivia S. Mitchell
Risk Management and Stable             WPS1118 * Contact the Education and
Transforming State Enterprises         Financial Structures                   Social Policy Department, room S6-035,
in Poland: Microeconomic Evidence        Andrew Sheng and Yoon Je Cho         tel. 202-473-3680.
on Adjustment                          WPS1109 * Contact Maria Raggambi,
Brian Pinto, Marek Belka,           room N9-033, tel. 202-473-7664.         The North American Free Trade
and Stefan Krajewski                                                          Agreement: Its Effect on South Asia
WPS1101 * Contact Marylou Kam          What Would Happen If All                  Raed Safadi and Alexander Yeats
Cheong, room K6-115, tel. 202-473-9618.   Developing Countries Expanded       WPS1119 * Contact Jean Jacobson,
Did the Debt Crisis or Declining       Their Manufactured Exports?            room S7-035, tel. 202-473-3710.
Will Martin
Oil Prices Cause Mexico's              WPS1110 e Contact Dawn Gustafson,      Policiesfor Coping with Price
Investment Collapse?                   room S7-044, tel. 202-473-3714.        Uncertaintyfor Mexican Maize
Andrew M. Warner                                                              Donald F. Larson
WPS1102 * Contact Mila Divino, room    Foreign Investment Law in Central    WPS1120 * Contact Dawn Gustafson,
S8-013, tel. 202-473-3739.             and Eastern Europe                     room S7-044, tel. 202-473-3714.
Cheryl W. Gray and William Jarosz
WPS1111 * Contact Maxine Berg, room
N11-057, tel. 202-473-1450.
15



May                                  Interdependent World, Santafe de     9-10-Conference on Portfolio Invest-
Bogota, Colombia [Contact: OLADE     ment Flows to Developing Countries,
3-4-Fifth World Bank Conference on   Headquarters, Avenida Occidental,    World Bank, Washington, DC [Contact:
Development Economics, Washington,    Edificio OLADE, Quito, Ecuador, tel.  Sudarshan Gooptu, International
DC, with sessions on financial policy,  593-2-538-122, fax 593-2-539-6841  Economics Department, Debt and
regulation, energy economics and the                                      International Finance Division, World
environment, and economic regress. A  July                                Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Room S8-044,
roundtable discussion on infrastructure                                   Washington, DC 20433, tel. 202-473-
is planned. Participation by non-World    27-29-Sixteenth Annual International    3914, fax 202-477-0661]
Bank staff by invitation only [Contact:  Conference of the International
Boris Pleskovic, Research Advisory   Association for Energy Economics-    20-23-Towards Education for All,
Staff, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW,  Energy, Environment, and Sustainable  Brunei Darussalam-intemational
Room S3-031, Washington, DC 20433,   Development: Challenges for the 21st  conference to discuss, monitor, and
tel. 202-473-10621                   Century, Bali, Indonesia [Contact:   exchange ideas on progress made
Artono Arismunandar, Chairman,       toward implementing the resolutions of
June                                 Program Committee, REDECON,          the Jomtien Conference for providing
Gedung Patra Lt. 1, Ji. Gatot Subroto 32-   education for all [Contact: Secretary,
6-7-Financial Aspects of the Transi-  34, Jakarta 12950, Indonesia, fax 62-21-  Organizing Committee, "Towards
tion from Stabilization to Growth, Tel  515-133]                          Education for All," Faculty of Educa-
Aviv-focusing on exchange rate                                            tion, University Brunei Darussalam,
regimes, financial mobility, interna-  September                          Gadong 3186 Brunei Darussalam, tel.
tional capital markets, and financial                                     673-2-427001, fax 673-2-427-0031
issues for reforming socialist econo-  6-11-Fourth International Symposia
mies. Organized by the World Bank    on Industry and Environment in the   October
and the David Horowitz Institute, Tel  Developing World, Alexandria, Cairo,
Aviv University [Contact: Mario Blejer,   and Luxor, Egypt [Contact: Ahmed  29-30-Conference on New Directions
World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Room   Hamza, UN Economic and Social        in Trade Theory, University of Michi-
H3-061, Washington, DC 20433, tel. 202-   Commission for Western Asia, P.O. Box    gan, Ann Arbor [Contact: Robert M.
473-8544, fax 202-477-3274]          927115, Amman, Jordan, tel. 9626-694-  Stem, Department of Economics,
351 ext. 603, fax 9626-694-981 to 982; in  University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
15-18-ENERLAC 93: Energy Confer-     North America, contact: William Lacy,    48109-1220, tel. 313-764-2373, fax 313-
ence of Latin America and the Carib-  9114 Cherry Tree Drive, Alexandria, VA    763-9181]
bean, 10th Colombian Energy Sympo-   22309, tel. 703-780-2181]
sium-Energy and Development in an
The World Bank
1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
16